July 4th Observations And Predictions
What do you see in your local housing market this holiday weekend? And what are your mid-year predictions? The Times Herald. “Travel on the national level is projected to decline by almost three percent with 37.1 million Americans, or 12.2 percent of the total population, traveling this weekend. Those from the Middle Atlantic region who are going to travel this weekend are planning an expedition on an average of 426 miles round trip, but more than 50 percent will travel 250 miles or less round trip, according to the release.”
“‘Philadelphia-area travel this holiday is essentially flat this year,’ said Catherine L. Rossi, Manager of Public and Government Affairs for AAA Mid-Atlantic. ‘Ongoing uncertainty about the strength of the economy, joblessness and sagging household incomes are making people think twice about traveling for Fourth of July, especially if they are already committed to another vacation.’”
The Associated Press. “Several states are facing the prospect of government shutdowns and program cuts as they enter the first weekend of the fiscal year and July Fourth holiday without a budget in place. ‘This downturn, even more so than previous downturns, really is affecting every state right now,’ said Brian Sigritz, a staff associate with the National Association of State Budget Officers.”
“States weathered similar problems in the recessions of the early 1980s, 1990s and earlier this decade. The confluence of so many problems hammering the economy at once make the present situation seem dire. ‘Numerous things look worse than some past recessions,’ said Bert Waisanen, a fiscal analyst with the Denver-based National Conference of State Legislatures. ‘The housing market is worse. Industrial production is worse. Wages are nearly worse.’”
The Las Vegas Sun. “With the Las Vegas economy mired in a deep recession, some are suggesting it’s time for the community to hit the reset button. That is the topic for the Lied Institute for Real Estate Studies, which will host its 12th-annual round table Aug. 19 and 20.”
“About 80 business leaders, academics and politicians will discuss ‘What’s Happened? What’s Next?’ The group will assess what happened to Las Vegas in the past 18 months and what can be done for future growth. ‘We sort of felt it was time for people to hit the reset button and find out how we can get out of this,’ said Debra March, Lied Institute’s executive director. ‘It is no different then when a computer crashes. We have been through a difficult downward spiral as a community, and it is time to reboot.’”
“John Vorsheck, regional manager of Marcus & Millichap, who serves as chairman of the round table, said the backdrop of the economy could be an impetus for business and government leaders to heed recommendations from the panel. ‘What do we look like once the dust settles?” Vorsheck said. “It is going to be our responsibility moving forward that we don’t fall victim to this again.’”
“Las Vegas went through such euphoria with credit flowing freely and expansion rapidly occurring, but now companies are contracting and reducing the space they need. Subdivisions that popped up overnight have many empty homes in them, organizers said. ‘I think everyone is coming to grips with what is the reality,’ Vorsheck said. ‘They understand what we experienced from 2002 to 2007 was not a normal market.’”
“UNLV economist Keith Schwer said anytime a community goes through a recession like Las Vegas is now, it’s a good opportunity to rethink what it is doing. The lesson to be learned is that Las Vegas isn’t recession-proof, and a lot of plans had been incorrectly based on that, he said. Second, Las Vegas has been overbuilt with commercial buildings and housing and will have to grow out of that excess, Schwer said. Because of that, Las Vegas will be slower to recover than other cities, he said.”
“‘The focus should be on the long-term Nevada question of how do we diversify our economy so we end up with less boom and bust,’ Schwer said. ‘We need to remind people that the last 25 years were unique, and there is no reason to believe we are going to have as prosperous times as we had in the past. People would be misreading things. That won’t happen.’”
Some predictions from the beginning of the year. “I think that a big part of the continued downward pressure on house prices will be the sobering reality that mortgage balances as a percentage of gross income will decline markedly. In the ‘old’ days, the acceptable ratio in most areas was 2.5 - 3.0X gross income. I think 2.5 will become the upper limit for safe borrowing that allows also some saving or a new car regularly, but not both. I think that a target of 2.0 will be the new goal among those wise enough to see the damage wrought by the bubble. If energy prices remained permanently low because of oil remaining permanently low - which I think there is almost no change of - then I’d go back to 2.5 as the ideal. Saving is in, finally. Modest living might become trendy.”
A reply, “If your prediction comes to pass, no amount of funny money printing or interest rate buydowns by the Fed will save the housing market from the ongoing, precipitous crash that is already underway.”
Another added, “If savings become trendy, couldn’t I argue that inflated Mc Mansions are toast? The Government along with NAR can not change trends. Once burnt twice shy. This trend is going to be forced upon millions like it or not. Now only if we can convince my high wage earning fiancé not to buy hundreds of shoes, coats, clothes etc and to follow this trend.”
And another, “Make spending too much money socially unacceptable! If it becomes ‘cool’ to live within your means, the REIC, banks and government can huff and puff and blow interest rates to zero and drop hundred dollars bills from helicopters until they are blue in the face and it won’t matter. It takes only one link to break in the chain.”
A reply, “We can figure out how to live on less - less credit, less eating out, smaller houses or more people in the houses, older cars, you name it. But the process of getting to the smaller economy that this level of consumption will demand is going to hurt like anything.”
One said, “The entitlement generation will never give in to something so unreasonable. How dare you suggest such a thing.”
One had this, “I have thought housing will bottom in a couple years; my only doubt is all the government intervention. By driving interest rates low they could spur some buying by those who have secure jobs. I bet they do something under Obama to help people stay in ‘their’ homes, or should I say government homes owned by Fannie and Freddie. So, if the price is right I’ll be buying in 2009! I may be early, but it will be a cash deal and cheaper than rent at this point. Although, I do feel I have a year or more to find the exact deal I want!”
Another said, “I wish they would stop calling it a housing or foreclosure ‘crisis.’ The ‘crisis’ happened when the regulators, politicians, Wall Street thugs, etc. forced or allowed prices to escalate like they did.”
“It’s only a bad market for sellers. For buyers — the other half of the equation — the market is quite good and getting better by the day. As a future buyer, I see no crisis…only sunny skies ahead!”
And finally, “I can’t predict the future any more than the next guy, but my guess is that this is a generational cycle, more than it is a next year, two years, or three years until it’s all good.”
“My father lost 50% on a house in 1960, in a micro economic event (Rt 190 in Buffalo planned through our block). He absolutely rejected the idea of buying a house for the next 30 years or so. My niece has lost 50% on TWO houses in Santa Rosa, one a step up and the other ‘would sell quickly.’ She and her husband will remember this pain for the rest of their lives I’d expect. The whole model we have lived with for decades is broken.”
“Three times income is a stretch for anyone raising a family. That is over half your takehome pay. Plus utilities and maintenance and you and are living like a slave and your kids like paupers. I have done that for decades and will not do it again. Will anyone do that with a mindset that a house is the worst investment ever? Add to it that those average incomes are going down and taxes are going up (half my friends are already in a bind with reduced income). With an economy that needs to be reinvented and a government hell bent on large scale forced malinvestment, we will be in pain for more than a couple of years.”
“My 82 year old mother says ‘people will learn to live like we did.’”
“The bottom is a long way down, but it won’t be a killer for those of us who are not in debt. I am glad to have a roof over my head and a job, no matter how transitory. Food in the cupbaord, savings, friends and freedom. Merry Christmas to all of you, may you recognize your blessings and enjoy living!”
That is the topic for the Lied Institute for Real Estate Studies
Lied Institute?
Bwahahahahahahahahahah!
“‘The focus should be on the long-term Nevada question of how do we diversify our economy so we end up with less boom and bust,’ Schwer said.
Hard to do when the entire LV economy is based on tourism/gambling/showbiz/bling - an unsustainable combination.
Schwer: “We need to remind people that the last 25 years were unique, and there is no reason to believe we are going to have as prosperous times as we had in the past. People would be misreading things. That won’t happen.”
Were there any reminders given during the past 10 years, when development in Las Vegas progressed at a frenetic, unsustainable pace?
Did any Nevadans attempt to put the brakes on the pell-mell development of Las Vegas, question its long-term value, or attempt to diversify the local economy while times were flush and options could still be considered?
Pardon me, Mr. Schwer, but the reminder was long overdue.
The problem is that there are no resources for LV to diversify into other industries. LV is greatly limited by lack of water and sources of energy. Any rights they have to the Colorado River are junior to those of CA and AZ IIUC. They have local generation of hydropower but once again that’s spoken for by CA and AZ to a great degree. Only in the northern part of NV is there geothermal power and some fossil-fuel mining. Much of the farming and ranching in NV appears to be along the I-80 corridor. There’s no intrinsic base of educated people to do things like engineering. The biggest growth industry appears to be the storage of nuclear waste - and the state is fighting this tooth and nail.
Heck, NV doesn’t even produce their own lawyers. NV is one of about 3 states with no law school. If you graduate from law school, move to NV, pass their bar, and practice for a few years, the state of NV will pay off your student loans. I have a couple of friends who took advantage of that program. I guess the state figured it was cheaper than the cost of building a law school at UN.
NV seems like the least viable of all the states. It only developed the way it did due to the advent of Happy Motoring with cheap & abundant fuel for highway and air travel, tax-subsidized highways / water / power, and a growing nearby population willing to spend extravagantly.
NV has a great future as a Solar-Thermal farm. Forget nuclear and agriculture
The biggest growth industry appears to be the storage of nuclear waste - and the state is fighting this tooth and nail.
The engineering and research stage for the nuke waste storage is over with. They sent their application to the NRC, and they are waiting 3 years for a decision. Then their budget was cut to almsot nothing. It’s pretty well-established that the NRC is going to give a thumbs-down — Chiu has almost said as much already.
The problem is that there are no resources for LV to diversify into other industries. LV is greatly limited by lack of water and sources of energy.
I don’t claim there is much opportunity to diversify — my point is that the best time to explore other avenues is when times are flush, not when revenues are down and your precarious boom/bust economy is sucking wind.
Wait, the public university system in Nevada has a school of Real Estate but no school of Law?
(I guess the big question, what are the other two states with no law schools - I believe Massachusetts has no public law schools that are accredited…)
Chile -
NV has neither a public nor a private law school. MA has Harvard amongst 6 others (Suffolk U, Boston College, Boston U, New England, Northeastern U, Western NE College). When I said no law school, I meant NO law school of any kind.
then where is this UNLV Boyd School of Law exactly?
http://www.law.unlv.edu/
Well shoot - they opened a NEW law school in 1999, a few years after I graduated from law school. No wonder I haven’t heard much about the “pay off your student loans” deal lately.
I agree with speedingpullet. NV has a chance w/ solar.
Yep, Lied! I’ve always wondered why the people who had that last name didn’t change it years ago when they had the chance…
Dennisn
Yeah. Lied Institute.
Kind of like the inventor of the toilet named Crapper.
the Lied Institute for Real Estate Studies, can that be real, I mean, I didn’t read further, but, is it possible, that, it is real?
From its web site:
“The extraordinary population growth in the Las Vegas valley presents an ongoing challenge to the real estate development industry, local governments, environmentalists and educators. The Institute for Real Estate Studies was formed by the University of Nevada, Las Vegas College of Business in 1989 to help meet the educational and research demands generated by this unprecedented growth. The Institute was endowed in 1991 through a generous gift and challenge grant from the Ernest F. Lied Foundation Trust.”
My god - not just regular liars but earnest liars .
Dennis: LMAO!!!!!!!!!!
Make that earnest f’ing liars .
It’s hard to believe Ernest Lied to set up a Trust.
Greetings and 4th of July Salutations everyone !!
Hey, have a great 4th and weekend Ben and everyone.
I’ll play it safe an I predict a lot more bank failures.
Wait…That’s not a prediction but a given.
I watched a great Parade from the lawn and front porch with my LL family. Big crowd and adults and kids had a fantastic time with lots and lots of candy for all the little ones. There is NO recession in kids candy yet.
God, it seemed that everyone knew 1/2 the people in the parade. Lots of waving, smiles, hugging and chatting going on like we’re a small town. The 1st part of the parade finishes and they come back and join friends and family and it becomes a monster block party. Huge happy crowds so some people stayed close to home.
Sheesh…we’re big time here…keep marching people, this is supposed to be a parade not a social event
The Milwaukee County Zoo is having their “Operation Freedom 2009 Appreciation Event” for all our Armed Forces, Veterans and their familes tomorrow. These folks get a wristband and and it includes admission, parking, picnic, train rides, carousel, Zoo Mobile, Sea Lion show and popcorn ALL FREE.
That’s easily a $150 plus day at the Zoo for a family of four and I think it’s a very nice and thoughtful way to say “Thanks” to of our past and current servicemen, women and especially their families regardless of where and how the PTB use and send them.
Things are tough in Wisconsin and they will get much worse. But maybe, just maybe, “It is IS different here”…if only for a few days.
I’m in a rush as my LL family have an unbelievable amount and spread of FOOD downstairs and outside so I”m off to make myself really, really… useful
You and yours have a great weekend everyone.
Later, mikey
Sounds cool and traditional Mikey! and have a great time! Happy 4th!
Thanks ATE-UP and Happy 4th to you too.
I’m back and I have a TONS of FOOD. I’m mean everything from fresh friut, sticky buns to roast beef. It really pays to be friends and a “poor single guy”with a LL that has some many wonderful women in his family.
Yikes…I could really starve when he moves out!!
My LL’s Dad was just joking that he’ll finally lose me as a dependant on his Income taxes when his son moves to this new home in the country. I always have an invitation for Thanksgiving or Xmas between his mom and all his sisters if I don’t go home to Northern Minnestoa.
I’m just munching away but LL is talking about cranking up my old boat up and taking 7-8 out for a ride on the Milwaukee River before the fireworks. If they’re dragging me to the Zoo Events tomorrow, I don’t want to be zooming around at 50 MPH and fighting all the crazies the other boats on the lakefront today or tonight…Ugh!!
Rather be munching
P.S. “You’re gonna have to go”, I mean, the food, ya know!
I predict more pain for the average Joe and more gain for the masters of Wall Street. That’s the way it works and that’s how the big shots want to keep it working.
I want to take this Independence Day to thank you Ben. You have been a big part of my awakening and education. I started looking at this blog in the fall of ‘05 when we thought about buying in the NYC area. It became clear just how mad everything was and we quickly got buying out of our minds. After that I tried to educate those around me. I had to suffer ridicule, insults and laughter but I soldiered on. The truth was there for anybody to see. You just had to want to see it. I have tried to be a good poster on this blog, sharing any insight, anecdotes and even some crude thoughts with the rest of you.
Over the past few years I have become more and more disillusioned with how things are operating in this country. Corporations and big money seem to have taken it over. During that time, like Ben and many others, I started writing down my own thoughts and reflections. It came to a point where I said I had to do something with these thoughts and reflections. That is what I’ve been doing since late January. It has really taken a lot of effort. It has kept me very busy, physically and mentally.
I hope you will let this link through Ben. It is one of several videos I’ve put together. It has been the most enjoyable experience of my life. I couldn’t have put these things together without you, this blog and many of the intellectual challenges I have faced here.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ycpGbfBPWVg
Thank you all and I hope you have a marvelous Independence Day. We are all going to have to keep fighting for the truth. The armies of the liars are many and they are strong. I am grateful that I have been around this blog these past few years. You probably kept me sane in an insane world.
NYcityboy: I loved it. Is that you singing? On the bridge with “throne” and the second with “bone” it sounded like Lennon. I thought it was good, really I mean it. Too bad that couldn’t get mixed and produced better, although it may be my monitor speakers.
Great job.
That was Spider singing “bone”. He is a Lennon fanatic. I’m the other guy. Sadly, I sound like me.
Ditto here….liked it a lot, you might have
a future yet in music!!
NYcityboy: Actually I don’t crap about a bridge or a melody. I do have a long listening history of music. I was wanting you to rip me/teach me which was what, and tell me more about the recording process. What does that cost?
I always liked Eno and Lanois re production.
Again, great song. I will listen to it more than once. I wish it was on vinyl.
We record in a small room on the Upper West Side. That puts some limitations on the production quality. We make the best out of what we have. Spider produces it. It is not expensive but it is time consuming and tedious at times.
We have much more to do. I’m off to Jersey. Enjoy the fireworks, all. Make sure to slap anybody that preaches that real estate is about to come back. The Founding Fathers would like that.
NYcityboy: Again, Loved it! and thanks for the reply. Tell Spider he DOES sound like Lennon there!!
“slap anybody that preaches RE about to come back”
Right: My response to this instruction is, I just wrote a nasty email to US News about their July puff-piece interview with the chairman of Pulte. Zuckerman’s editorial correctly observed that the economy is “still rolling downhill,” but the patsy interviewer (separate article) never brought up with the Pulte guy the fact that there are 19 million unoccupied housing units in the US. Allowed the Pulte guy to say foreclosures are the only problem. What nonsense.
I predict that NYCityBoy will have to stop posting on the HBB because his cat masters will lose patience with his increasingly slovenly service. The cat masters will make him wear a transponder and a shock collar. We will get a few more posts from him intermittently, but they will be terse, laconic, and creepy.
He will eventually write a book about it, but no one will read it.
Sad, really.
Big V: “I predict that NYCityBoy will have to stop posting on the HBB because his cat masters will lose patience with his increasingly slovenly service”.
Whats Zat Mean?
He has cats.
Ok thanks.
Oh, thanks a LOT, Big V!
Because of your post I shot beer out of my nostrils and right onto my desk, my lap, and my computer.
Wasteful!
But Happy 4th to you and yours anyway!
Olygal, how is the summer steelhead season in Puget and surrounds? You people had a ‘normal’ water season! L from Pismoclam
I don’t know. I’m trying to figure it out, because I’m very eager to capture some of those tasty floppy things and eat them up, but so far it turns out I’m a su*cky fisherman. Hanging my head off my kayak and screaming into the water ‘You get yer scaly tail up here RIGHT NOW!’ has not worked yet. Who knew?
Say, do you know how to salt-water fish?
Yar! We did get regular rainfall this year, for the first time in FIVE YEARS.
And a Happy 4th of July to you, too! I hope you have a great day.
Steelhead down in southern Oregon, lots of
river trout though…we have 800 feet of
river frontage right next to some great reefs
and deep holes….it’s a rough life but
someone has to do it…
I would have thunk Olygal would go fishing with dynamite.
I would have thunk Olygal would go fishing with dynamite.
What?! That would show disrespect for the natural world. Jeeze, man! Show some sensitivity!
…although, come to think of it, the natural world has recovered from asteroids and stuff, so a little dynamite should be no big deal. I would think. Hypothetically, of course.
Sheesh DennisN
DON’T give Olygal ideas. Her fishing with dynamite and beer from a kayak WOULD end worse than a Daffy Duck Cartoon !
My cats let me hang around on-line as much as I want. At least my lap is always ready for kitty nap time.
I like your anger!
NYCityBoy…Hi
Wow…nice find and thanks for the link. My kid will love “I stand alone.” You and yours have a great weekend too.
“nice find”
Nice find? That’s me.
You ?
I was rushing in and out between food foraging raids and the parade.
b..b..but I didn’t see I didn’t see any real live chickens in NAR T-shirts being thrown from the Empire State Building to an angry “priced out forever” crowds below to be ripped apart !?!
It’s great but hard to believe that’s an origional NYCityBoy production.
Maybe he thinks you just found yourself after all those years…
Some of us are still looking. Nice job, NTCityBoy.
NY, not NT = flippin keyboard…
“I predict more pain for the average Joe and more gain for the masters of Wall Street. That’s the way it works and that’s how the big shots want to keep it working.”
But it is all for the greater good, right?
Nice job, NYCityBoy!
ditto
Excellent NYCityBoy.
I only have one question.
You never thought of scoff instead of cough?
“States weathered similar problems in the recessions of the early 1980s, 1990s and earlier this decade.”
My state weathered the problems of the early 1990s and earlier in this decade by deferring costs to and encumbering revenues from a future that has now arrived. We now pay special taxes that go 110% to debt service, our infrastructure is creaking, and our pension and retiree health care costs are exploding — all while we are also faced with the fiscal difficulties caused by recession.
This drove me nuts while it was happening. No I realize that people were doing in their own lives exactly what state and local goverments were doing. This is a culture that will have to be beaten out of us.
WT: I agree because it was beaten out me.
Happy 4th everyone!
In this area the score is Roundup 1, Green Shoots 0. The restaurants we frequent are much less busy, HD and Lowe’s (especially HD) are very quiet, the number of commercial “For Lease” signs continues to climb, and only an occasional house sells in our neighborhood.
On the other hand, boat activity on the lake for this holiday weekend seems as high as ever.
How soon do you thing The One will propose another stimulus package? How soon do you think Congress will pass one?
Funny you should mention Roundup. Apparently it’s gone off-patent because the HD shelves are now full of competitors with the same active ingredient. Poor Monsanto - at least they got one of their in-house attorneys on the Supreme Court now.
Somehow Roundup and its action is a metaphor for much of the RE business these past few years.
Did you see Food, Inc. too? I found the movie very disturbing and a bit too extreme in its views, but nonetheless worth seeing.
The Future of Food is also a decent documentary film on our food supply.
Local observation 95050-95054…
Available SFR inventory is down by roughly 50% as compared to 6 months ago…The best of the best usually brings top dollar in a fairly short period…The bottom part of the market is getting hammered particularly Condo’s…Underemployment is a huge problem….Many have set the living standard based on what they were earning several years ago..The lack of optimism is as bad as I have seen it in my lifetime and I have been through four previous recessions here…
The decline in federal and state tax revenues of around 40 percent in some locations and official U6 unemployment numbers exceeding 16 percent (exceeding 20 percent for shadowstats U6 without the phantom job growth added by the birth/death model of the official stats) show an economy at near depression levels. Upcoming cuts in state and local spending will reinforce the ongoing economic contraction.
This larger economic decline in combination with the next set of loan resets will lead the second major leg down in housing prices, though whether it is larger than the first will depend on location. Housing prices cannot stabilize until the economy stabilizes and that is not remotely close to happening.
The supposed “green shoots” will be exposed as nothing more than a dead Inland Empire lawn painted green.
Looking on the bright sign, what is wrong with a painted green lawn which need never be watered in a state with a severe water shortage?
signside(Too tired to think — time for bed on the other side of the planet…)
Happy Fourth of July to you to Bill! Me and a bunch of old friends had big plans on a ski boat @ Greenville, Il. lake today. It is a beautiful place, (not quite the gulf Palmy), but in someways better. It is a Christian town I grew up in, and I have fond memories on that lake.
Inclement weather, plus Dave, (who owns the ski boat), couldn’t get back from Texas in time re work. So, no big deal.
What I like about getting older is, expectations are just that. Nothing is realized until it happens. Don’t let the stuff that ain’t here yet, become an experience and/or deliverance.
Just like Oly. Promised me 3 geo-ducks. Just a hope, a dream…
I think Oly is a member of Earnest F. Lied Foundation Trust” (on the Board, probably), what do you think Dennis?
I for one am not going to put “foundation” and “Olygal” together in one post.
One of the pleasures of growing older is that you get much more enjoyment from even the simplest banal things. For me a drive through the farmlands near me after dinner is an enjoyment - much better than any TV show. I get to wave and say hi to the horsies, cowsies, and goats. We even have herds of yaks and llamas around these parts.
Yep.
What I like about getting older is…
Is another thing you like about getting older the relaxing experience of developing Alzheimer’s*? Everything must look so new and fresh all the time…
When I asked you about it the last time I dug one up you said you “didn’t want one ‘no mas’, (to quote you) and to send you a metaphysical one”(that’s another quote).
Yes, really. Go check archives if you’ve forgotten.
(So I ate the real one, with a real fork and real rice and real ginger. And it was really great.)
Alas, the minus tides are over for awhile, so I’m afraid any geoducks I mail you are going to have to be metaphysical ones. Here—lemmee go ahead and mail you 20 gazillion.
* metaphysically mails ATE-UP twenty gazillion geoducks *
Did you get ‘em? Hooray!
Say, I hope you have a really big metaphysical fridge, ’cause geoducks are quite perishable, and twenty gazillion of ‘em are going to make a serious metaphysical stinkiness.
* Now, I’m just teasing. Don’t get mad and come hit me with your cane, okay?
Hi Oly Gal!
Hey Oly…check my post near the end of July 3rd Bits and Buckets below my LL buying house story about possible trip out to the PNW. If I do make it and miss you, I DON’T WANT to ever hear you complaining about a FREE BEER again until you are really walking with a cane !!
What?! What?! Did I hear the lovely words ‘free beer’???…
Sheesh Olygal…Read the 3rd July on Posts Bits and Bucket and Cool your Jets little PNW fairy princess…I said it’s a “maybe” on the FREE BEER and only if things work out that way.
Just What are you suggesting here?
“Just What are you suggesting here”
Nothing “mother” rancher, whatever are you thinking ?
(hides beer money)
Hey Mikey -
Stop by Boise on your way and I’ll take your offer of a free beer at Tablerock Brew Pub, home of “Hopzilla” ale.
Wow…thank you for the offer Dennis. If I do have to go out there, I will be driving back. I hate to say it as although I’ve flown around much of the world, I never did much cross-country travel in the US by car other than point to point cities. Heck, most of my air travel was military or business and I never saw much of some cities or countries other than their airports on rainy nights.
Yikes…I’ve been all over…and NEVER really saw much of anything !!
I should take some time to get off the highways and and just look around the good old USofA someday.
So you’re flying out and driving back - with LL or sans LL?
You have roughly two choices coming back from Puget Sound to WI: northern route through Spokane, Coeur d’Alene, Glacier Nat. Park, etc., or southern route along the Columbia river, Boise, Sawtooths, Sun Valley, Tetons, Yellowstone, Mt. Rushmore. Naturally if you have the time you can mix this stuff up a lot.
If you have an adult kid you’re probably around my age. My suggestion: you should drive around the country as much as possible since you’re not getting any younger.
DennisN
This is all up in the air right now and we haven’t discussed possible dates or details. If it happens, my guide will be an adult kid. He knows that southern route and I’d love to see those places.
He made certain that he got on that trip in college with the Geology Department Department Summer Class TWICE(a two week excuse to party with cute girls) and he wasn’t even a geology major.
I’ll update you when I know what’s going on…Thanks
By the way, what are all these government installations in central east ID. Mysterious gates with floodlights, and nothing else visible, in the middle of nowhere (off Rte 20) ???
That’s the Idaho National Labs, where for six decades nuclear power reactors were designed and built. Historic experimental breeder reactor #1 is sitting out for visitors to examine - I think it’s not too radioactive anymore.
See http://www.inl.gov for details.
Happy Blow Things Up Day everyone!
Observations:
Yesterday I drove from Las Vegas to Orance County, CA and I saw no less than 8 people working on flat tires along the various highways.
As I’ve said earlier, if you want to see how construction (or the broader economy for that matter) is going, check out tires. You’d be amazed at how bald tires can get on an otherwise pricey Beemer or monster truck.
They blew their tires up, cause it was the 4th!! Wait a minute, they blew their tires up, twice?… Oh, forget it, I am confused!
P.S. Not making fun of poor people with blown tires. Been there.
Sounds like these people know jack about tires. . .
Maybe they were tired, and couldn’t learn jack?
You’d be amazed at how bald tires can get on an otherwise pricey Beemer or monster truck.
It’s odd how people - even people with a brain - don’t pay attention to things like tires. I knew a guy who was a PhD VP of engineering at a SV company, yet I had to point out to him that the belts were showing on his tires and that he absolutely needed new ones immediately. And this on a fancy Volvo model.
I know. My roomate in law school who graduated first in the class, studied for semester exams w/o an outline and a beer in his hand, bought a piece of sh+t BRAND NEW “Renault Le Car”. One day, it wouldn’t start. I know a little, thought battery, froze starter, starter cable? Battery connections?
No.
He ran it out of oil. Locked up. Didn’t know what the words “check oil” means.
Will Rogers, come on down!!!
Everyopne is ignorant only on different subjects.
Happy Independence Day! Thanks to many for putting your best out there.
I’m off to two Tea Parties today. Let’s see what we can do to stop government duplicity and unmitigated taxation to support corporations that in turn increase government power.
It’s time to determine our own futures…not have others determine it for us.
Eud: At least you are trying to do something about it, and for that I am proud of you! Go for it Eud.
I ran into a neighbor yesterday that had a contract to purchase a unit in the D.R. Horton Atlas Hillcrest condo project, but had an out in the contract and used it.
http://www.atlashillcrest.com/
He said only 17 percent of the units were occupied and monthly HOA’s were an astounding $780! This for all wood frame, stucco box condos with the now standard empty ground floor retail space.
This for all wood frame ??
SDGreg….Are you sure of this ?? My past experience and understanding is that would frame cannot exceed three stories due to the engineering limitations of wood (Wind Loads Etc)….Pictures appear to be 5 stories over retail….Interior walls maybe but the exterior super structure should be Steel…
would = wood
Ronnie Would= Ronnie Wood.
You inspired me to go google this. Looks like the tallest all-wood building is in London at 9 stories high.
http://www.bdcnetwork.com/article/CA6663746.html
The reason given for eschewing concrete and steel? “Lower CO2 emissions.” Oy vey.
Part of it depends on seismic activity in the area, but most* building codes based upon the commonly accepted model building code in use in the US (The International Building Code, which has never been an international code in the least) allow for wood framed buildings greater than three stories in height IF the design of the structure is performed by a Structural Engineer.
For anything three stories and less you don’t need an engineer, you just put up framing members and shear diaphragms as the code perscribes.
IBC-2006 states
2308.1.1 Portions exceeding limitations of conventional
construction. When portions of a building of otherwise
conventional construction exceed the limits of Section
2308.2, these portions and the supporting load path shall be
designed in accordance with accepted engineering practice
and the provisions of this code.
2308.2 Limitations. Buildings are permitted to be constructed
in accordance with the provisions of conventional light-frame
construction, subject to the following limitations, and to further limitations of Sections 2308.11 and 2308.12.
1. Buildings shall be limited to a maximum of three stories
above grade. For the purposes of this section, for buildings
in Seismic Design Category D or E as determined in
Section 1613…
Thanks for the clarification BChile…
This for all wood frame ??
It’s definitely all wood frame. I watched it go up. Not the same same way I saw their condo project to up in Escondido - in flames - literally. What an intense smoke plume on that fire!
For new projects in this area, some have been concrete, some all wood. From a noise standpoint, I much prefer the concrete to all wood, especially for the floors.
I saw the smoke from that condo out here in Carlsbad. Literally, the first thing I thougt of was some kind of commercial/large building going up in flames to collect insurance money. Still think that’s the case.
Happy 4th to Ben and all the HBB’ers!!!
Thank you, Ben, for keeping this blog up all these years. I can’t thank you enough!
These mixed-retail condo monstrosities are destroying Hillcrest, or what was left of it. Everytime I drive up 5th avenue I’m shocked. Hillcrest was already getting overbuilt in the 90s– the indy bookstores, Guild movie theatre and my favorite coffee house, Quel Fromage, have made way for the hideous Rite-Aid bunker, The Gap and Starbucks.
Some of these new projects aren’t that bad and replaced eyesores of their own. Much better would have been if they hadn’t all come with bubble price tags. Still, these projects are all far better than the cheap 4-plex and 8-plex apartments that were thrown up (appropriate verb) in North Park in the 70’s (I think it was the 70’s, wasn’t in SD then). What a disaster.
What would have really been a disaster for Hillcrest is if the proposed high rise project for 3rd and Robinson had gone through. This bust couldn’t have come at a better time in terms of stopping some of the worst potential projects. It would have been totally out of scale with the surrounding development.
You’re talking about what’s know as the Hoffman apartments, which sprouted throughout North Park in the 70s before the City implemented some restrictions, especially pertaining to street parking. Because so many of the lots in North Park are deep, relative to the modest size of the mostly Craftsmen bungalows, they made for attractive tear down opportunities for cheapo apartment developers like Hoffman who could fit a 8-plex on these formerly SFR lots. It’s really a shame, some blocks of very nice vintage homes were never the same after the 70s.
Marketing line from the main website page for Atlas at Hillcrest:
Think of it as an energy drink with an address.
#1 - The age group that the phrase would appeal to CANNOT afford the high 300’s plus $780 in fees.
#2 - No doubt it’s like an energy drink, overpriced for what it is and full of empty calories.
Happy 4th! Anyone know of a episode of Jay Walking or something similar where an interviewer walks around asking random people on the street what the Fourth of July is in Celebration of?
Happy 4th Of July everyone!
Happy 4th to YOU, Stpn2me. I hope you have a great day, with NO exciting explosions at ALL.
Thank you for your service to your country. Bless you.
You had a vicarious explosion.
That was YOU outside that port-o-potty?
Yes, Stpn2me, and I can’t add anymore sincerely than Oly, thank you for your service to your country. Bless you. Us guys here, and I am sure a lot more than you realize, really mean it.
So, Thank You again.
ATE
Dear Stpne2me:
In my defense, barely, I am relatively new here.
However, in my selfish idiocy, I should have acknowledged your service earlier.
My friend Tim Graham, (Tim Bear) served in Afghanistan for 6 months in the reserves, and I wrote him e-mail three times a week. (Big Deal) He is home now, like you will be too. Please stay safe, and God Bless you.
Happy 4th to you too Step!
Come home, real soon, eh?
I’m seeing on the news that you guys are having a bit of an exciting day, so stay safe.
I’m going over to my friends house in the hills (unheloc’d, thank bob) to eat roasted cow (they bought half of one to put in the freezer - like, hah!, as if me and the Husband aren’t going to put a dent in that for you today..) and shake all the fruit off of their nectarine tree.
I’d bake some in a pie for you, but it might not travel well.
So, have a virtual one and take my thanks, in a cyber-stylee.
No need, man,
I am in this military for me as much as for everyone else. The military has enabled my wife to not work while our kids are small. It can be a really nice life. Military culture harkens back to a simpler time, where everyone knew their place and things were more defined. Being here has shown me that there are jobs that NO one would want to do, but they MUST be done. Aside from the housing views I have here, I am very politically active and I have very, shall we say, controversial views on others coming to this nation. I have been to several Islamic nations (not just in my job), and I can tell you no one should form an opinion until they have been here and actually gotten a world view from a native. I will save my opinions for the political blogs. But rest assured, people such as me will NOT stand for sharia law in the United States. I take great pride in knowing I will die in the fighting…
Enough of that though, Happy 4th…!:)
Happy Independence Day, everyone! Happy, Happy Day!
I’m so delighted—I LOVE the 4th of July!
I already went outside and sang ‘Happy Birthday’ to America, in bold ringing patriotic tones, so that the forest shook. Then I started singing the anthem but I got hungry, so I ran back inside and made a huge American breakfast of crispy hashbrowns with a little American flag stuck in the top golden chunk, plus bacon, eggs and o.j., and I thought about how great America is while I ate.
Now I’m sitting here with a mug of coffee, with a mound of whipped cream in it and planted at the top of the mound is another little flag, with a few more flags in my hair, here and there. Is that how you’re doing it too, Ranchaaa?
So, I hope all HBBers have a super, terrific, wonderful day, and don’t blow any important parts off with your reservation fireworks. I got some great ones day before yesterday, but I’m going to try to keep all my fingers this year because they’re a pain to grow back.
Happy Independence Day to you too Oly!
Happy Day, Oly!
Sportin my flag undies today!
Not to be desecrating, just love the colors close by.
’sides folks always get a grin when flashed those red/whites and blues. Ya see stars everywhere.
Sportin my flag undies today!
Not to be desecrating, just love the colors close by.
Oh, my. What an Uber-patriot you are! ‘Desecrating’? Nowhow…the founders of this great nation would completely approve. Bet yer they’re all spinning in their graves right now, with approval.
A Happy 4th to you and yours, too, Miss PatrioticPants.
hashbrowns beat tater tots, a little. Don’t like them either, what I really like is… (hint, hint, tide..?), oh, well, Nevermind. By the way Oly, Bonnie Raitt just asked me to ask you this, wouldn’t I need a metopystacal freazzer for gadzillions of those critters?
We took a daytrip yesterday to Santa Ana and bought some fireworks, illegal in San Diego, but for 4 days before the 4th they sell them in certain areas of Orange County. Walked around the Bower Museum in downtown Santa Ana, very beautiful mission-style buildings from the early 1930s. Because traffic heading back south on the I-5 was backed up, we decided to take a detour home. So we headed east to downtown Riverside and had dinner at the historic Mission Inn. Happy 4th!!!!
http://www.missioninn.com/
Said like a true-blue Utahn! We are in the Czech Republic — out of the country and missing the July 4th festivities for the first time ever in my life, spending the recent days admiring some of the largest “houses” ever constructed. There is no outwardly visible evidence of a housing bubble and no faux chateaus to be seen in these parts!
Did you have pilsner in Pilsnen?
Happy Independence day Oly….we are having friends over to sit on the river bank and watch
the fireworks with home made ice cream and
cocktails….Wish we could send some to Stpn2me.
Remind me again what “independence” we achieved? I see debt slaves everywhere.
I predict the national savings rate will be 10% in the U.S.A. by this July 4, 2010, if not before!
People are paying off more and more debt. At least that’s my own case. Finance charges are coming down more and more each month. means more money left over to save in the ol’ money market fund. Multiply that by tens of millions of people and you have increasing savings rate.
Other predictions can be made off of this one, concerning house prices and stock prices. But there are a lot more variables that can come into the equations. For example, what if a solution to the problem of establishing stable, contained, nuclear fusion is found next year?
what if a solution to the problem of establishing stable, contained, nuclear fusion is found next year?
Sell energy stocks short.
Fusion is one of those things that’s always just around the corner. Back in 1975 I thought laser fusion was just about ready so I embarked on a PhD program in physics at UCSD. I picked UCSD since Keith Bruckner - at the time the world’s top laser fusion guy - was there. Boy did I get a wrong number about the joy of being a grad student, but by now that’s all water under the bridge.
Cold fusion is theoretically possible via QM tunneling. After all, tunneling makes FLASH memory work. But I’m still not holding my breath.
My Prediction.
SEVERE WEATHER ALERT
Abundant sunshine.
High 110F+ in the shade.
HOT Winds WSW at 10 to 20 mph.
Chilling the watermelon.
Also, lots of houses are still being fixed ( as in flipper )
which perplexes me..where is the $ coming from?
And housing prices are starting to decline around these parts.
At least 2/3 Houses in Gated devs in La Quinta,
Indian Wells are shuttered, shades drawn, gates locked,
lights off, no cars,
half vacant/closed down for summer.
Must be nice to have 2++ houses.
Happy 4th, y’all.
You too Big v!
Well, I already wished you a sincere ‘Happy 4th’, Big V. Up earlier in the thread, when I complained that your post made me shoot precious beer outt’n my nose.
But why not say it again?
Happy 4th to you and yours!
Where’s the food chatter for the 4th of July?
I’ll start. Lunch is the all-American food: pizza. I make my own from scratch. A 25 lb bag of bread flour and a 2 lb block of yeast is only $11 at Sams Club. You do the math.
Today’s pizza has an olive-oil rubbed crust, tomato sauce, shredded mozzarella piled high, peperoni, zuchinni, mushrooms, olives, and shredded onions.
TIP #1: use an egg slicer for the mushrooms and olives.
TIP #2: use a Kyocera ceramic slicer for the zuchinni and onions.
Sounds like you got the pizza stuff down my man.
I’m barbecuing bison burgers. My sister came back from a trip to Wyoming extoling its virtues. They sell bison now at Trader Joes and Henry’s, so it’s not as expensive as it used to be. Very lean and grills quickly. Quite tasty.
“Very lean and grills quickly. Quite tasty.”
Cool, because Palmy has come down with a case of the whoopsies and I have a feeling I ate a bad piece of beef this past week. I’m a confirmed carnivore and always looking for tasty meat treats. At least bison aren’t all jammed together on feed lots, standing in their own manure.
Hey Salad: One of these days I am going to try Bison Burgers. Never had them.
Me and lady friend are grilling T-bone steaks tonight.
Noticed something else. This year a LOT less fireworks in a good neighborhood, so far at least, for this time of day 4th of July…
Wrong! and kind of glad, they’re pickin’ up now… “splodin’ everywhere!!
Ooo, those Buff-Burgers (as we call them) are fantastic! The ones with the cheese and mushrooms already in the patty are my faves.
They’ve replaced pizza as our ‘food in the freezer of last resort’, and I’m sure they’re much better for us pizza is.
Lots of locally produced fresh bison sold as steaks etc. in the markets around Boise. Idaho is a big bison producer as well as the largest producer of Kobe beef outside of Japan itself. There’s a herd of yaks just south of me but I don’t know if they are for meat or for milk. They look like shaggy red-haired cows to me. Plus there are places around here where you can pick out a live lamb in the morning, pay the rancher, and pick it up in the afternoon all neatly packaged in butcher paper (sounds like a good way to gross out some of my city-slicker friends).
Dinner is all on the BBQ. No kitchen cooking on a hot day like this. Corn on the cob, chicken hot Italian sausages, and a skewer of onion/zuchini/red bell/mushrooms. Some potato salad. Some large shrimp with instant sauce (ketchup and hot horseradish mixed) as an appetiser. I can’t decide whether I should drink too much beer or too much cheap Italian red so I’m doing both.
This is my favorite day of the year. But my celebration was yesterday. Had a nice long IM chat yesterday with my ex-girlfriend who is on the other side of the planet.
I have a disgustingly healthy food day today. No sweets, no booze, and lots of veggies.
The right veggies can be sublime. Most people just don’t now how to cook them.
No booze is a dealbreaker though. I’m sure Oly would agree.
No booze is a dealbreaker though. I’m sure Oly would agree.
Freakin’ yeah. I already DID agree. (See below, an earlier post).
And then, after I posted, I said a little prayer for Bill, that he gets enlightened one of these days, because his present abstemiousness is just not natchrell.
Umm…You should reread my post. My celebration was yesterday. Had my quota o’ booze then.
Have fun today. I’m going to consider walking down to King Harbor to see fireworks. But…the Deadliest Catch is on all day so I may just see fireworks from Santa Monica from my balconey. A toast to you all with my Pom drink in my wine glass!
My post was at 13:26. Yours was at 13:57.
Pray explain the “earlier” bit.
That being said I don’t think prayer is the right path for Bill. I think enlightenment lies in the way of a whole buncha Long Island Iced Teas and a cadre of transvestite hookers but I’m ol’ school that way.
I saw that right before I left and showed Cathy and we both said great Faster. Absolutely timeless, and beautiful.
Who’s Cathy and where’s a picture?
My post was at 13:26. Yours was at 13:57.
Pray explain the “earlier” bit.
Are you serious?! You’re able to be minatory on this subject? I’m so drunk I can’t feel my feet*, and therefore I have to levitate myself around and around my delightful packet of illicit fireworks, while everyone chants over and over: ‘Don’t set them off until it’s dark, don’t set them off until it’s dark…’
You know what? You haven’t had enough likker, that’s what, is what.
Oh, now that I think of it, you are the one who showed me how to do the italics thing. I’ll thank you for it, once I can feel my feet again.
*I know I have feet, though, because I can see them from the top of me. I painted the big toenails red with white stripes last night on the porch, ’cause I’m festive and patriotic. But the other toenails are too paltry to signify
You ARE drunk.
You actually focused on the timestamps and not the cadre of transvestite hookers?!?
I’m gonna cry.
Gor, this is less than useless!
I have a disgustingly healthy food day today. No sweets, no booze, and lots of veggies.
Commie!
No booze even?!
*shakes fluffy, flag-laden Oly-head sadly *
Why, I bet you aren’t even going to blast any bits off yer person tonight with illegal reservation fireworks, either. Probably sit there sedately and study ‘Mein Kampf’ and makes notes in the margins.
I don’t think he’s fully figured out that booze is vegetarian!
Twenty-twenty-twenty four hours to go I wanna be sedated
Nothin’ to do and no where to go-o-oh I wanna be sedated
Just get me to the airport put me on a plane
Hurry hurry hurry before I go insane
I can’t control my fingers I can’t control my brain
Oh no no no no no
Twenty-twenty-twenty four hours to go….
Just put me in a wheelchair and put me on a plane
Hurry hurry hurry before I go insane
I can’t control my fingers I can’t control my brain
Oh no no no no no
Twenty-twenty-twenty four hours to go I wanna be sedated
Nothin’ to do and no where to go-o-o I wanna be sedated
Just put me in a wheelchair get me to the show
Hurry hurry hurry before I gotta go
I can’t control my fingers I can’t control my toes
Oh no no no no no
Twenty-twenty-twenty four hours to go…
Just put me in a wheelchair…
Ba-ba-bamp-ba ba-ba-ba-bamp-ba I wanna be sedated
Ba-ba-bamp-ba ba-ba-ba-bamp-ba I wanna be sedated
Ba-ba-bamp-ba ba-ba-ba-bamp-ba I wanna be sedated
Ba-ba-bamp-ba ba-ba-ba-bamp-ba I wanna be sedated
Gesundheit (sp) Oly.
TIP #1: use an egg slicer for the mushrooms and olives.
DennisN- That’s effin’ brilliant! Thank you. Thank you. Thank you.
I “need” an egg slicer but I try and keep my doodads to a minimum.
FPSS - the renter - whose budget would not be broken by the purchase of an egg doodad - or twenty.
Yeah, throw the egg/shroom in the dryer or something. It will get sliced somehow.
I have a wonderfully sharp and elegant set of knives.
I could easily cook up your liver in a nice chianti reduction with some fava beans.
You’d play HELL knifin’/cookin’ my liver Faster!!
Start with demolition caps! Or a geologist!!
I was diagnosed with “Fred Flintstone Liver Disease” I invented the disease. It is the first diagnosis in the modern world :).
Diagnosed by Dr. Barney Ruble, (Mayonaisse Clinic) not Rubble, (just a coincidence).
HUmmph. “Touches liver and bounces racquetball off later”.
Bubba,
Trim the mushroom stem close and put them into the egg slicer stem-side up. Trust me on this one.
1. Not exactly a prediction, but I think that a LOT is riding on the health care reform, which is making its way through Congress. On incarnation of the bill is going to offer that Public Option to individuals and businesses under 50 people. If that goes through, then lots of people will start their own businesses, or feel more comfortable freelancing and consulting.
2. I also predict that we won’t have a new culture beat into us, as happened during the Depression. There are two many stimulus packages and gov loans going out. Today’s tots will be spending Bux cards at the mall when they are teens.
3. I predict that at least one huge Wall Street outfit/bank will be allowed to fail. When Lehman went, the shock was great enough that investors began demanding cash. But now we’re used to it.
4. Crazy prediction: GM won’t make it. They will be liquidated, and the US gov will commandeer the factories and re-tool them for solar, wind, and maybe the remnants of the ridiculous Volt.
I disagree on the culture part. It all depends on what you mean by “change”.
Back then, we didn’t produce enough food. Now, we have a terrible surplus and an obesity problem. So things change. McD’s are the new soup kitchens.
The culture will change. There will be no more jetting down to Aruba and ski trips in Aspen for the average Tiffany’s and Xander’s on their parents’ HELOCs any more. That will leave a sting rest assured!
McD’s are the new soup kitchens. LMAO!!
350 miles through Wyoming, on a two lane road, and not one single grocery store. Taco Bells and friends galore. You consider that food? (not you, Faster). Americans get what they wanted.
30 percent are obese, 75 percent of them cannot walk in a natural way, how is it possible to feel comfortable within oneself and one’s body, and have a functioning brain? I see people in places where they vacation, and where they at least try (to walk, that is). It’s a choice to live that way, what about just saying no to junk.
I always remember, years ago, either smoked trout for five dollars in Montpelier, VT, at the VT Culinary School run Main St Grill, or fried onion rings. Would that not be a nobrainer. Except everyone had the fried stuff.
I like to visit Jesses American Cafe, just to be reminded how food is supposed to look like !
Its surprising you don’t see many really fat people in Manhattan, (or they are very hidden) you have to walk everywhere and climb stairs sometimes 4 flights to get in and out of the subways, I know i was in better shape when i lived there but we had to move, we live just 2 miles away in queens and what a difference, i have my car right outside and i use it.
—————————————
75 percent of them cannot walk in a natural way
“I predict that at least one huge Wall Street outfit/bank will be allowed to fail.”
Well, Palmy’s going to go down to the local Catholic church, make an offering and light a candle that it’s Goldman Sachs. But since the political class is larded with so many Goldman alums, fat chance. But you never know. Maybe it’ll be Bank of America, which I think is in deeper doo than anyone knows.
I disagree on your number 4. GM will make it, but truly as a Government Motors entity, where the govt will “buy” all the output for their own fleet. Even now it would be stupid for the govt. to buy cars from Ford.
Long time reader, first time poster.
1. You forget to mention the higher unemployment because of the health care reform. I bet there are more people who will quit their jobs than there are people who will freelance or start business as a result of the gobemint health care.
2. I can see a change in culture but it will take some time. I see a structural unemployment of about 10% or so for a foreseeable future. People will have adjust to that.
3. Not gonna happen.
4. GM will survive but as a post office. They will still churn out these ridiculous cars and Obama and the compnay will keep bailing it out. Gotta protect your campaign workers..
Yeah, I’m sure people will be quitting their jobs left and right now that they’ll have an option to buy health care from the government. They can use that health care to pay for food, rent, electricity, and their cars. And their health care…or something.
Get real. The only people who are lazy enough to even consider doing such a thing can’t possibly get hired for a job that currently offers health care in the first place.
Spent yesterday looking at houses in Seaside, Monterey, Carmel, and Carmel Valley. About a week ago property started to flood into the market place in those higher priced areas. That’s a good sign of things to come. Housing priced above $500K are mostly track houses with poor layout and materials. I did see two nice pieces for sale but listed $300K above where they should be priced. One for $850K sold for $340K in 1999 and $450K would be reasonable. Saw one bought a month ago in Monterey for $450K now back on the market for $850K.
In Seaside saw one for $800K in an area with 15 foreclosures; I walked in and walked right back out. What a piece of junk, plus stains all over the carpet and the RE agent was telling me that I would be buying a Monterey life style. Next time I’ll ask just what a Monterey Life Style is. Must be to buy, pay until you can’t pay any more and then sell to the next fool for less. The RE agent said that she lived in the development so I asked about hidden fees. Guess what, not gated but $175 month HOA’s to maintain the front lawns (40ft X15ft estimate).
My daughter’s friend put in a bid on a house for $50K above asking and got out bid. Boy was she lucky!! RE agent said that she is selling 65% of her listings which is probably true as people in this area still think that the game continues and the RE cheerleaders are out in force. RE agent that I knows said that you shouldn’t even consider looking until after the 90 moratorium when the foreclosure market will be flooded and more of these idiots will be locked out. His word is to find and area and he’ll watch trends but don’t even think of buying until this time next year.
$800k in Seaside? Doesn’t Seaside know it’s trashy? I mean, nice coast and all, but still trashy. Better hold out.
Seaside used to be Fort Ord country until they shut the base down.
There may be a lot of toxins in the water supply to the places formerly on the base with who-knows-what type of waste from military equipment. Any of those people who for some reason plant a garden in one of those $850,000 houses will get toxins from the soil.
Contributor to The Nature Conservancy.
Contributor to The Nature Conservancy.
Dang, now I’m sorry I just mocked you for being a commie.
…But seriously, though, no booze?!
This is AMERICA. And it’s the FOURTH OF JULY, man!
Who needs booze when they have an ex-girl friend on the other side of Pluto? Wait a minute, does that make sense?
When Donald Healey died, the northern California Austin-Healey club had a fund raiser and gave some humongous amount to The Nature Conservancy. The NC has a deal with the California state parks where if you give them enough dough, you get to name in perpetuity a picnic area/campsite. The NC uses the funds to purchase land contiguous to a state park and then donates it to the state park.
Hence there is now a “Donald M. Healey, Order of the British Empire, Redwood Grove” in Big Basin state park.
The club flew his family over for the dedication.
The big Nature Conservancy spot in Idaho is, of course, Silver Creek, which anglers argue may be THE best trout fishing creek in the entire world.
http://www.nature.org/wherewework/northamerica/states/idaho/preserves/art20609.html
Great link! Silver Creek looks very nice! I’m glad it’s preserved.
I’d like the Sierra Nevada Mtns in Ca. to become mostly preserved too, including the foothills on the western slope.
However my father had the idea that the entire San Joaquin Valley should be devoted only to agriculture and any city should be built above the fogline and below the snowline. That would be somewhere between 2,000 and 3,000 foot elevation. He made sense because the air in the SJV will always be unhealthy since the dirty air from the Bay area blows in.
Sounds like Nevada City or Grass Valley. Above the fogbelt, below the snowline and above the valley heat.
TNC also has a history of transferring title to prime (donated) parcels to its board members and swapping (donated) pieces to developers in exchange for “rights-of-way.”
They get no more of my money…let alone my land.
“I did see two nice pieces for sale but listed $300K above where they should be priced.”
Sounds like the story of our neighborhood (Rancho Bernardo — San Diego 92127) during the bubble’s denouement thus far.
Observations from the waterways of WNY.
The lockmaster on the Cayuga Seneca Canal says traffic is down 85%. NY reinstated the $75 fee, but that didn’t slow traffic a few years ago.
Overnighted at Hibiscus Harbor in Union Springs. Very nice marina, been around forever. Great 4th of July fireworks display. Last year the owner was planning on building a “development” across the channel where a nice horse barn and pasture sat. This year, barn is gone. No plans for development “in this economy”. What a waste of a classic 19th century barn. Lots of waste of all kinds in this bubble.
No fireworks this year. Amazing.
The bust is in.
Lots of big cabin cruisers with for sale signs. Prices are very low on most. Easy to pick up a nice 32 footer for $10K or so. Marine gas at $3.45. Should be a great cruise. Tonight we will anchor out, somewhere.
Well Happy, happy, happy 4th of July everyone. Take a look at what Google did for the 4th. Pretty darn cute
Still deciding what to do.
San Francisco Pier 39 will be having fireworks later on this evening. Big shock, there may be fog. The fireworks in San Francisc may turn the fog a pretty rainbow color as they go off. Also Foster City and Redwood City will have fireworks. At least the fog won’t appear in those areas.
Fog has been coming in pretty thick in the evenings here. Nice brisk breeze coming off the Pacific. Need those coats for the evening. Ahh summer. Cold wind and fog. Love the summers here.
Your post reminds me of my childhood growing up in Fort Bragg, CA and Mendocino on the North Coast. Spring and Fall had the best weather. Summer was cold and fog.
I did a little time at Ft. Ord after Nam. Had a girlfriend in Monterey and woke up one Monday morning socked in solid by unbelievably thick fog. I hadn’t seen anything like this since my childhood days in the UK. I couldn’t even find her dumb cat meowing on her front step right in front of me much less even see my friggin’ car.
Called the post and told the weekend Charge of Quarters Sgt. that I was trapped and to tell my Captain. He just laughed and told me not to worry because I couldn’t find my platoon if I was there. He also added that the Captain wasn’t coming in until later and he has unofficial standing orders in situations like this. I asked what they were.
“Stay where you are, make love to her until the fog burns off and get in when you can.”
My Captain was no fool and he had a very pretty lady too.
Prices are down in my area of Phoenix. Realturds are playing the usual games to instill a sense of urgency in the market. List the foreclosure/REO below comps and wait for multiple offers. Then when the home does not appraise, start twisting the arm of the “lucky” bidder to come in with cash or lose the home. Any home below 200k is getting this type of treatment. It’s sickening. What happened to just marketing a home? Why the games?
Happy Birthday America!!!
‘The housing market is worse. Industrial production is worse. Wages are nearly worse.’
WHO MOVED MY GREEN SHOOTS?
Too much cheese gets you constipated.
(You need booze to wash it down.)
This metaphor (of which only the first part was applicable to housing) is brought to you courtesy of the holiday.
As always, we thank you for your public service announcement.
Hey, you need someone to provide the appropriate tone around here. Otherwise, there would be daily suicides based on PB’s post!
We need to hear “Stars and Stripes Forever”
played through large Boze speakers at 115db
to make this a true Fourth!!
Mini-chile is moving a ton of green shoots today. Wonder what mom ate?
Hey peeps check this out really great music…
http://radio.chittlincircuit.com
Downtown Los Angeles condos for under $100,000 by the end of the year.
Cathy’s here and we’re gonna cook some food. I left this last night about her. She is a great lady…
” My ex-girl friend, went up to the Black Crowes in London, at a ritzy hotel, and said, “You guys are OK, bout 1/3 of the time” spent all evening with them. True story. I always loved her taste in certain things”.
Good night my friends.
Happy 4th Everyone!
Some good news out of Texas. Some of you might remember a post I made a few weeks ago with my sad story of over-exuberance, a too-big house, and disintegrating marriage…
Anyway, it looks like the ex-wife will go to Closing on this Monday to purchase a small house out in the country, just down a gravel road from the school my children will be sent to. It was close for a while.. douchbaggery by the sellers (this was a FSBO) and the bank dragged it heels, threatening to not be ready to close until after the lock expired, and other fun stuff. The bank finally extended the lock due to the fact they couldn’t get an appraisal done on time, and sellers have been dealt with.
The final stats. 1.66 forested acres, 1200 sq. ft, 3br 30-year old house. 400 sq ft out building w/ power, pad for trailer/mobile home with separate utils. To sell for $100,000. The ex was able, with my help, able to get a 4.25% 30-yr fixed mortgage for 90k for a P&I payment of $442, and T&I < $150.
The only wrinkle is the PMI, which is about $50/mo, which totals up to about 40% of the amount insured, but her mother might help her out at closing to bring the LTV down to 80%. we’ll see…
Anyway, it’s huge relief to know my children will have a good place to live, and that the ex- is going down a very frugal path (less hassle to come back to me..
)
I wonder if we are going to see dips in 30-year rates back back down like that again soon (4.25%) , or if we just we really fortunate with the timing of it.
All of this, while tragic and all, fails to focus on the most important part - have you found a hot bimbo yet?
Sheesh man, focus on the problem for a change instead of housing.
That’s been the least of my problems.
Now that I am single after almost 2 decades out of circulation, the dating world is turned upside down from what I remember it.
The women my age group (late 30s to mid 40s) are aggressive and will make the move to fark you on the first date. I’ve been turning down way more than I accept. Apparently because I am sane, have all my hair, in good shape, pleasant to talk to and be around, and have a very good job, they think there are only 6 guys like me in the whole metro area.
Seriously, it’s bizarro land out there.
All that said, I’ve met a killer-cute geeky nympho-kinky brunette who’s 11 years my junior that I’m enjoying the heck out of.
All that said, I’ve met a killer-cute geeky nympho-kinky brunette who’s 11 years my junior that I’m enjoying the heck out of.
Can you give her my # when you’re done with her?
Thanks
All that said, I’ve met a killer-cute geeky nympho-kinky brunette who’s 11 years my junior that I’m enjoying the heck out of.
you know the rules: pictures or it didn’t happen.
Little Feat Dixie Chicken
Ive seen the bright lights of Memphis
And the Commodore Hotel
And underneath a street lamp, i met a southern belle
Oh she took me to the river, where she cast her spell
And in that southern moonlight, she sang this song so well
If youll be my Dixie chicken ill be your Tenessee lamb
And we can walk together down in Dixieland
Down in Dixieland
We made all the hotspots, my money flowed like wine
Then the low-down southern whiskey, yea, began to fog my mind
And i dont remember church bells, or the money i put down
On the white picket fence and boardwalk
On the house at the end of town
Oh but boy do i remember the strain of her refrain
And the nights we spent together
And the way she called my name
If youll be my Dixie chicken ill be your Tenessee lamb
And we can walk together down in Dixieland
Down in Dixieland
Many years since she ran away
Yes that guitar player sure could play
She always liked to sing along
She always handy with a song
But then one night at the lobby of the Commodore Hotel
I chanced to meet a bartender who said he knew her well
And as he handed me a drink he began to hum a song
And all the boys there, at the bar, began to sing along
If youll be my Dixie chicken ill be your Tenessee lamb
And we can walk together down in Dixieland
Down in Dixieland, Down in Dixieland
FPSS,
You still hanging around? Did you get out to see the fireworks?
Took my mom to London. She loved every minute of it.
Here’s a great picture of the fireworks
http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/object/article?f=/c/a/2009/07/04/BA1Q18J8SU.DTL&o=0
That is an awesome picture of the firewoks!