Bits Bucket For July 15, 2009
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The Housing Bubble
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It’s different in Missoula, but last night at a club meeting I heard a few tales of woe. A motel owner says business is wayyy, wayyy down this year. A guy who does phone systems for small companies said most his business this year is maintenance to remove user accounts. Our big multinational construction co. is hurting. Service club (Rotary, Lions etc) membership is down across the board, probably due to disappearing Realwhores and mortgage “bankers.” Local TV news had a story about the animal shelter overrun with discarded pets. Only the fat sassy govt retirees are happy.
I booked a 4 day weekend at cape may … with less than 1 month notice, for August. I’m pretty shocked, but it seems places have rooms to fill… right on the beach too …
They should shoot humans who throw pets away.
Shoot pets. Put’em out of their misery.
Exeter - did you follow the local uproar in the Boston Globe about threats to close the zoos? Total California move. Instead of proposing real cuts to bloated programs (including the zoo itself), the zoos or politicians or both (I couldn’t tell who was proposing what) we saying they’d have to close and euthanize all the animals.
I called it on some Globe discussion page that it was a political move designed to secure funding instead of proposing real cuts to real programs, and sure enough a few days later the zoos were saved. Much to the benefit of children everywhere .
Which begs the question: should the state even be running zoos? (I think not…)
It’s always educational getting a glimpse into the real hearts of certain politicians, isn’t it?
And don’t ever think they wouldn’t treat you the same way… if they could.
That’s always what I thought should be done with morons and politicians, unfortunately there are to many of then.
“morons and politicians”
Why are you being redundant?
Ah we love the dogs and cats, but eat the cows and chickens.
I’d have a pet cow if I could. Unfortunately the law disallows such things in this area.
Even the new mini-cows? They’re the size of a big dog. (and quieter)
Mooooo.
Even the new mini-cows?
There are mini-cows?! Where?! My dog would LOVE a cow play-mate!!!
Google mini cows. It’s the Next Big Thing. And if they don’t work out as a pet, they apparently have a higher “steak to size ratio” than regular cows.
Mine too, they’re cow dogs
Woah that’s sooo cool. I didn’t know about mini-cows. Can you imagine if I was going to move out of my apartment, and the landlord was to show it to prospective tenants and there is a cow sleeping on the couch?
Wow, mini-cows! So cute. And probably a smaller carbon footprint with less flatulence.
Don’t worry Durban and Dorgan killed the flattulance tax in the carbon tax bill they passed without reading. So much for transperancy. The Danes tax cows 80 euros per year. Pigs get off with a 40 euro tax.
What can they do when they have to move into a rental that won’t take pets? Although I agree with you about people who acquire pets frivolously and then just as fecklessly dump them when they leave town. Here we get a lot of university students who feel they must have 2 big dogs in their new apt but dump them when the term ends.
All my pets are rescues. I take good care of them and they take care of me, yet I’m now penalized when I want to rent something - penalized for taking care of other people’s responsibilities. I am immaculate and take excellent care of property, better than some owners, and even with pets I leave the place better than I found it. I’m currently landscaping the little condo I’m renting from a friend here in Moab, for free cause I enjoy it.
But I would lie before I dumped my pets, plea, beg, or live in a camper. Animals have feelings just like we do, rescue one and you’ll see how they can feel gratitude.
I think I love animals more than people. Actually, I know I do. Most people, anyway, have to admit I love people who love animals, that’s the acid test for me. It’s a sign of compassion and empathy.
“I think I love animals more than people.”
All of us people are guilty of something. Animals are not.
My cat’s a cold-blooded killer (plays with ‘em while slowly killing them) but I love her anyway.
The trouble with *some* pet owners is that they seem oblivious to the problems that their pets cause.
For example, there are people who leave their dogs out all night, and they bark at every living, moving thing. For some reason, we neighbors are supposed to grin and bear it.
And then there are the cat owners who allow their cats to wander all over the place. It doesn’t matter to the owners that their cats are eating the local bird population or leaving messes in neighbors’ yards.
People, if you’re going to have a pet, take responsibility for it. That’s all your neighbors ask.
“I’m now penalized when I want to rent something - penalized for taking care of other people’s responsibilities.”
Sorry Losty, I gotta disagree. You can’t make the choice then call yourself a victim because of the choice you made. A lot of whining is done on here about others who do that, often justifiably so.
Don’t be hatin’ on me, I love animals too.
“All of us people are guilty of something. Animals are not.”
Incorrect sir.
My dog is guilty of sneaking away and crapping on the carpet in the middle of the night. But I still love her.
My cat is guilty of clawing the carpet and tearing down the curtains. But I still love them.
Deer in the wild are guilty of tearing holes in my fence with their heads and of eating every piece of foliage at our vacation home. But I still love to watch them, and only kill one or two during hunting season, rather than all the ones who deserve it.
In short, animals are as jerky as people are. But that doesn’t mean they don’t deserve love, just like people do.
I always knew when my cat had misbehaved ’cause she had a guilty look on her face, like the time she bodyslammed the Christmas tree and knocked it over.
But she never looked guilty after doing normal kitty things like thrill-killing little critters of the forest and whatnot.
I say animals are not guilty from a mens rea standpoint, not actus rea.
One season my dad and I got a buck. We were butchering the deer in the kitchen and had various cuts of meet on the counter ready to wrap. Somehow we both left the kitchen unattended for a second.
Walked back to find Lucy the cat got a venison roast as big as her on the floor and was dragging it along. I called out “Lucy No!”. She growled from a deep deep place and continued to drag. She was a great cat. Best one we ever had.
For the first time in my life of 52 years, I have two cats at the same time. Both so different. It has taken a year for them to become friends but, they are finally getting along. Both came from the Human Society.
All my pets are rescues. I take good care of them and they take care of me, yet I’m now penalized when I want to rent something - penalized for taking care of other people’s responsibilities.
I’ve mentioned before that Chicago is very pet friendly for a big city. I’ve never had much of a problem finding nice places to live with my critters (all rescues, too).
We even have a landlord-friend who goes out of her way to rent to multiple dog owners, since she has been on both sides of that equation. In return, she’s never been long without good, appreciative tenants.
We even have a landlord-friend who goes out of her way to rent to multiple dog owners
My landlord is like that. He has two french bulldogs and a mastiff, so he figures it’d be hypocritical to have any breed or size restrictions, even with hardwood floors in the apartments.
However, it’s still difficult to find a place that will rent to someone with one large dog, let alone two (and don’t even think about having a ‘pitbull’).
Sorry Losty, I gotta disagree. You can’t make the choice then call yourself a victim because of the choice you made. A lot of whining is done on here about others who do that, often justifiably so.
No problem, Blano, I don’t complain about it to anyone much, I just make it work. I really would rather make that choice than the other…which is to not help those in need. So far doing fine.
But I still love to watch them, and only kill one or two during hunting season, rather than all the ones who deserve it.
In short, animals are as jerky as people are. But that doesn’t mean they don’t deserve love, just like people do.
“Jerky”?…Hahaha! Was that on purpose? Because I enjoyed that.
I already posted below on my rescue kitties. They’re evil little hairy fooks who would eat me if they could, if I wasn’t so cunning and alert and onto their evil little plans. Sigh. Oh, well, whatcher gonna do. Besides get eaten by a pack of ungrateful kitties, I mean.
My cat eats chipmunks, baby rabbits, and mice. No offense vegetarians but these are “nature’s popcorn”. For every one she kills, two take its place. She seems to like birds, except for grackles and jays, who pick on her! She has a weird friendship with a mockingbird, I think they like each other’s cocky brazenness.
Here in Tucson, the organization meetings and events that used to have a heavy REIC presence are, shall we say, seeing fewer bodies and dollar these days.
I, for one, enjoy these meetings and events a lot more than I used to. Something about not having to steel myself against the sales pitches of the REIC.
I was planning to go to the North American Music Merchants show in Nashville tomorrow as the guest of an old friend who is in the business. I can’t go and called him last night to apologize. He said companies are backing out of the show, including Fender and Gibson. This is especially chilling because Gibson is based in Nashville.
Gibson had layoffs recently.
serves ‘em right after what they did to Slingerland
He said companies are backing out of the show, including Fender and Gibson. This is especially chilling because Gibson is based in Nashville.
NAMM used to be a big, big deal, but how much of that was generated by perceived wealth?
Gibson certainly took the opportunity to run up their retail prices on itsmid-to-high end instruments. And I wonder how all those boutique makers will fare now that thousands of would-be shredders can no longer spend exorbitant sums for point-to-point wired tube amps, koa wood basses, handmade Strat copies and the like? The excess in the musical instrument biz was just one more sign of the times.
Yep.
+1. And if you’re savvy, you can score some pretty good deals right now…
Guitar Hero still sells.
Some news from the PNW - Bellingham, Washington:
Bankruptcies, foreclosures continue to rise in Whatcom County
DAVE GALLAGHER - THE BELLINGHAM HERALD
As this economic recession drags on, more Whatcom County residents are finding themselves in severe economic distress, according to two new reports.
The first half of 2009 saw a substantial rise in local bankruptcies and foreclosures. Through the end of June, there have been 392 bankruptcy filings by Whatcom County residents, up 53 percent compared to the first six months of 2008, according to data from the U.S. Bankruptcy Court Western District office in Seattle. It’s quite a change from just three years ago, when there were 283 Whatcom County filings for all of 2006.
The number of foreclosure filings has risen at an even more dramatic pace.
The Whatcom County Auditor’s Office listed 519 trustee sale notices - one of the initial steps in the home foreclosure process - in the first six months of 2009, up 77 percent compared to the same period last year. The majority of those filings - 58 percent - were filed in the past three months.
http://www.bellinghamherald.com/102/story/987485.html#Comments_Container
Good morning guys!!!
Got a couple of questions:
My housing allowance is about $1500 a month. I live in on base housing and I have a 4 bedroom 2 1/2 bath. Me and the wife are thinking, just thinking about buying. I have about $20,000 in cash and a low 700 credit rating. We have two tax deductions, ages 9 and 13. I retire in about 3 years, but I plan on getting a job in or near bragg.
Question 1…I rotate back to the big PX in april ‘10, should I just wait until I retire in ‘13 to buy? The only reason I ask is because I can afford alot of house for $1500 a month. Plus, I should be getting promoted in a few months and that monthly money should rise. I understand about renting, but I am giving Picercne (military housing office) ALOT of money every month. Then again, if the value drops on whatever house I buy, I am losing ANYWAY….
Question 2…Have any of you driven farther than 1 hour to work? The problem is, we want to be closer to home in the Triad area (W-S, Greensboro, High Point). I am thinking of buying in that area and trying the drive of 1.5 hours each way..Dont know if I can do it, but with my background, I wont find a job like I can at bragg anywhere else. Also, keep in mind, we have been gone from our childhood home for what will be 20 years. 3 combat deployments, 6 total one year tours (including combat tours) and a total of 10 years overseas (gotta love korea)…We are desperate to be home….I used to drive 11 hours from Alabama to home, 1.5 hours may not be that bad…
That’s just to start…what do you guys think?
Hey Stpn, I’ll take a shot.
Question 1- Rent for a while for sure. Real estate prices are going sideways at best and mostly down. The longer you wait, the better deal you’ll get.
Question 2- Totally personal but I could never drive more than a half hour one-way commute to work. I’m way too selfish with my time and to me it seems like unpaid work. I have known some who enjoy a commute (they seem to like the time to themselves). Driving through the countrside, maybe, sitting in stop-and-go traffic for a couple hours each day, no way.
Please wait. Maybe $1500 is a lot to give to Picercne (military housing office) every month. But after reading this blog you cannot or should not have the mindset that rent is throwing away money. I am guessing that is your view ? Is money spent on food or clothes throwing it away ? On vacation ? You are getting a lot of housing for you money. WAIT WAIT WAIT WAIT. Deals will get better. Don’t spend 1.5 hrs a day in car.
Don’t go for the long commute. Gas prices can’t stay this low for very long.
Keep renting for now.
Try the commute out for a week before seriously considering it as an option. Out of pocket for a week of hotel or B&B is a lot cheaper than hating life for 3 hours a day later. Peace of mind.
Gas prices can’t stay this low for very long.
Certainly rising gas prices are a concern,but I just don’t see it as a huge difference in monthly expenditures compared to everything else? If I go through 2 gallons of gas a day (assume 25 miles each way to work), and gas prices double…that’s what, an extra $6/day. $30/week, $120/month, etc. Still less than $2k/year. Sure, I’d rather not spend that $2k, but I just don’t see that as a back-breaker for most people.
Perhaps I’m discounting the strain on lower-income folks, but I would think for most, cutting $2k from elsewhere in the budget is doable. Now, at the same time that the cost of everything else is rising (due to inflation)…yeah, it gets to be a concern.
As an ex Seattle commuter (35 minutes in the morning, 1 hour in the evening) of many years I can tell you …….don’t do it. It will be okay for a while, so a test for a week won’t reveal the life that will be sucked from you driving 3 hours every day. It’s not the cost of the gas, it’s the cost of your life. Those hours were meant to be yours and your families time to live. You will be in at a job everyday and will see more of your co-workers than your family. The hours you will waste will be lost forever, so treasure them and use them wisely. I now drive 7 minutes to work and back, with no traffic. My life has been reclaimed from commuting hell. Don’t do it. Seriously.
Amen! I used to have a job that required an hour’s commute, each way. At the end of the week, my back was killing me and I was always dead TIRED. I felt like I’d worked an extra day (8 hours of driving) over the course of five days. So, not much energy for doing anything at all on Friday nights.
Enjoy a balanced life! Don’t spend your “free time” behind the wheel of a car if you can help it…
Amen!
Commuting is a waste of your time, money and energy. If you can avoid it at all, do NOT commit yourself to a commute. If you’re hell-bent on it, try renting and commuting first, so that you are not tied-down if/when you regret the decision to commute.
1- wait, unless you find a smokin’ deal on a house you love in the right location.
2- do NOT drive 3hrs per day!!!! You will hate life and the little free time you’ll have. It’s SO not worth it. RENT all day before driving 3 hrs!!
Step:
Hi, why not rent a smaller place until you want to buy, so the $1500 pays for all the utilities as well?
——-Have any of you driven farther than 1 hour to work
Big TIP….live right off the interstate, and have a job off the other end… i drove 50 miles each way for over a year with only 3 traffic lights each way
PS….not to be offensive but why are we in afgahnny?
PS….not to be offensive but why are we in afgahnny?
So my wife doesnt have to wear a burka…
“So my wife doesnt have to wear a burka…”
That answer rocks. Thank you for your service.
I don’t mean to be flippant (well yes I do) but I’ve always thought a burka would be “liberating”. I mean you can roll out of bed, throw it on, who cares or knows how you look (or smell really)? Guys could wear them too- again, who would know? Be just the thing for running down to the store in the morning to get some coffee. You’d be judged by the content of your character- not the color of your designer clothes.
I’ve seriously contemplated buying one for the run to the store thing alone.
I’ve seriously contemplated buying one for the run to the store thing alone. A burkha would be quite useful for going to the bank to make a withdrawal, even from banks where you have no accounts.
The problem with a burka is you can’t tell half the time if she weighs 150, 250 or 350.
Wow- good point. Can I wear it to the bank? Better use the drive-thru.
“can’t tell half the time if she weighs 150, 250 or 350″
Exactly! Liberating!
What are burka’s called in Afghanistan? BMO or MBO? We always called them BMOs in Jordan, but then I read an article the other day about people calling them MBOs.
BMO = Black Moving Object
MBO = Moving Black Object
(And obviously, blue and black are interchangable depending on your local practice).
Well this black moving object is driving to the store to get some coffee, and who knows if I have bed-head or morning breath or not?
Were the Taliban threatening to invade the US?
Well, in a way, they DID.
A terrorist attack is not an invasion.
Why is it any *less* of an invasion than say - Pearl Harbor?
- More deaths happened on 9/11
- The attackers had lived in the U.S. for a significant amount of time
- The attacks were on the mainland, in U.S. states and not a U.S. territory
- The attacks were mostly against civilian targets
Yes the attacks weren’t done directly by the Taliban, but the Taliban very much were (and still are) *the* supporting faction of al-Qaeda, and thus were very much culpable, enough to declare war against.
(all that being said - I do not agree with the more general wars against Iraq and Afghanistan - I believe it should have been against al-Qaeda and the Taliban only; though the bulk of the war in Afghanistan is against the Taliban I believe)
“Were the Taliban threatening to invade the U.S.?”
Did they need to? State support of Al Qaeda wasn’t enough for you?
Not all invasions consist of tanks rolling through the streets and columns of soldiers marching along… sometimes all they need are devoted killers scattered throughout the target nation, a few planes, and a few good targets. So, from that viewpoint, they did invade us.
So my wife doesnt have to wear a burka
yep
not to be offensive but why are we in afgahnny?
If you lived there for 10 years, you would gain a clearer understanding.
“why are we in afgahnny?”
For no well thought out sensible reason.
Question 1…I rotate back to the big PX in april ‘10, should I just wait until I retire in ‘13 to buy? That’s really all you need to know. When you sell a house you have to pay the realtor to sell it. Between the buyer’s and sellers realtors, you’re talking about a net 7% of the value of the house. So the house has to appreciate 7% for you to even nominally break even. When you consider that you stand to MAKE 1-2% interest on your downpayment if you left it in the bank, it is almost impossible to break even after such a short period of homeownership. It is only the crazy levels of appreciation during the RE bubble that enabled people to come out ahead after short periods of ownership. When you consider that PMI (the mortgage insurance people) have estimated that most of the country is likely to see greater than 2% DECLINES in RE prices over the next two years buying and planning to move next year makes NO SENSE whatsoever.
Stpn2me,
How old will you be when you retire? Is that just for the min. of 20 years? What retirement system are you under ( avg. of High 3? ) or the “old” system?
Did you participate in the TSP ( Thrift Savings Plan ) and are you aware they are coming out with a Roth version ( I’m told ) here shortly? Have you considered extending beyond your 20?
I’m always on the fence on this one ( especially for Officers ) because you’ll still have school age children. Thankfully after the 1st of August the “new” G.I Bill will take effect ( and if ‘anyone’ qualifies that would be ‘you’ ) so you won’t have near the burden financially now that benefits are transferable to dependents.
Ahem, which brings us to mom. Has your wife considered going back to school? If so, she could become a “professional student” and have you considred maybe just staying at home w/ the kids? NOT to “pry”!?
Have you considered extending beyond your 20?
Ok, me and a couple of friends just finished laughing THAT one off! LOL…NO..:)
Second..
have you considred maybe just staying at home w/ the kids?
I would rather extend my tour of duty here in southern afghanistan…
No, only playing. It has been thought of, but the misses is VERY spoiled. This is true, she just learned how to put gas in the car I just bought her. I usually do it. Now that I’m not home, she has to do it.
We made a pact years ago, I said if she didnt want to work and would stay home with the kids, I just had to step up my game and provide a good standard of living. I’ve been lucky.
What retirement system are you under ( avg. of High 3? ) or the “old” system?
I chose the “Redux” system. I know, before you go bashing me over the head, I put some of the $30,000 up, but not all of it. My TSP took MAJOR hits, as I had alot of it in the “S” and “I” funds. It went south pretty quick. Soured my appetite for mutual funds. Stocks just seem like some kind of racket to me. I have since closed a putnam account and started buying gold and platinum coins. One, I like the way the coins look, second, platinum used to be $600 an ounce and during the last gas runup it made $2000 an ounce. I have also started buying Series I and EE bonds. I know they wont be worth much, but at least when I am 60 yrs old, I can start cashing one or two a month for extra money. Like I say, there are alot of grants out there for college age kids of veterans, especially disabled vets and combat vets. Plus, they can always go the road I took, the army paid for two degrees and is about to finish paying for a master’s. If TSP goes Roth, I may look at it, but I only have about 20 years of usefull work left, so I am just putting money under the mattress. I dont trust the mutual fund market, damn sure dont trust the stock market, so there arent many options out there for j6p. My retirement as a Major should be around $3500 a month. That will pay for a nice home and alot of rounds at the local VFW!
You guys are great! Thanks for the recommendations. I think you guys are right. I should wait until I retire. But doesnt waiting SUCK???
I want to pull the trigger NOW!! LOL. I feel like a bubbly buyer!
Another question…
VA loans vs conventional….what’s you guys assessment of the two..pros and cons..
Of all the hundreds of posters here, you are probably one of the few who can actually “pull the trigger”. I would be careful around you
lol I thought the same thing.
2013 is not that far out in the grand scheme of things. I would rent, and buy when you retire. Its not entirely about money either - a shorter commute increases your quality of life and saves the fortune you’d otherwise spend on gas. You can spend your days off in your target retirement area and really get a sense of what kind of house will best match your changed lifestyle.
I’ve driven nearly an hour each way, and IMHO it’s a total drag after a while. You start to dread the drive even before the drive, I don’t think that would change no matter how pretty the scenery might be. I’ll never do it again if I can avoid it.
As suggested, maybe rent a while ’til the two of your figure out exactly what you want to do and where. Buy and you tie yourself down and limit your options. Renting a while rather than buying right away takes the pressure off and keeps that 20K tucked away.
My Dad used to drive 65 miles each way from MA south of Boston to Southern NH to work. I was an hour and a quarter on good days.
First of all, people always seem to make the estimate based on the best possible scenario (in Dad’s case hitting the road by 6:50 AM and no traffic issues at all on 128 and 93), but realistically it won’t always be ideal. Your 1.5 hours could be 2 hours or even longer at times and you can’t predict when it will happen.
Jobs sometimes require face time. Doesn’t matter if you are 3 times as efficient as any one else, if you leave a half hour early you are considered the slacker (not all offices are like this but many are). So if everyone else puts in 9 hours you will be putting 9 hours plus at least three hours of commute - even if you could get your work done in 6. Not living anywhere near your colleagues means you won’t be able to do any socializing with work people and that can hold back your career. You may or may not care about that last part.
Your kids will miss you. That kind of commute makes family dinner hard, especially if they come home starving after sports practice or other activities. Weekends make up for it some, but it isn’t perfect. And if you have any time consuming hobbies (golf?) that don’t include the kids, that is even less time.
I would try to avoid it, but that is me, My Dad really worked to make sure he was home at a reasonable hour, and he supervised breakfast so we saw him then, but it was not an ideal situtation.
Also, I think we can all “hear” the aching to be settled in your posts, but you have mentioned several places where you might be stationed when you get back. Are you sure that your next posting will be the last of your military career? are you sure you want to live permanently where your last posting will be? What if a much much better job comes up elsewhere? Now is not the time to buy if you have any real risk of moving within 5 years. It just isn’t.
polly,
Great summation of about … 15 years of my life. Only to add that I was gone long before my kids even woke up. Fortunately ( for me ) Portlanders really don’t socialize together after work. Well maybe they do, if it’s a blue collar environment. So I don’t think that worked against me?
The contra is that unlike a lot of folks that live close to work, my “weekend” started the minute I got home at 2:00pm on Friday. We lived in the country and really didn’t have to go anywhere to appreciate nature. ( Unlike frantic last minute packing to “GTF out of town!” ) like so many of my I-205 stranded co-workers. Additionally I had plenty of room to work on projects etc. I’m still not sure I did the right thing?
You are correct.
As far as moving somewhere else, I am going to try to avoid it. I dont want to leave N.C. There is NOTHING west of the Missippi or north of Virginia for me and there never will be. This will be my last Hurrah. I can finally see the end of the tunnel of my military service. We just want to sit down and rest. In the military, you never really are OFF work. People dont seem to understand that. Even some of the new soldiers, someone told them that sometimes we work 9 to 5, then they get over here where if I want to, I can work them 20 hrs a day legally if war warrants it. I am tired of always having to think about the military and duty first, I want to be able to tell an employer to kiss my *** and look for another job. There is an inheirent freedom enjoyed by the general public that my career doesnt afford me. There are alot of benefits in the military, but believe me, you earn them…
I watched my dad commute into San Francisco about an hour each way for the better part of 40 years.
I swore to myself I would never do it. He was out of the house before we all woke up, and back by about 6:30 or 7:00, dead tired. It’s one of the reasons we rent. We could afford a very nice place if my wife and I just decided to commute even a half-hour each.
Instead, we rent. I have a 10-minute walk, my wife a 15-minute drive, and we can walk to a nice downtown on weekends/evenings for an ice-cream, coffee, hang out at the park (tonight is music in the park).
Quality of life is the way to go…
Indeed - we just signed the papers on a rental yesterday that cuts 18 miles, and 45 mins average, off of the Husband’s round trip commute.
Working in game dev, his is a “late to work, late to go home” kind of job - so hopefully when he gets in the car, the journey will be even shorter due to doing it at non-peak times.
Plus, we’ve traded in the middle of the hot smoggy San Fernando Valley for a mountaintop 3 miles from the ocean, high above Topanga Canyon.
I am very chuffed, but am having anxiety dreams about sorting out our stuff….
You are living in Topanga? How do you like it? Of all the places in the LA metro Topanga has been the one that draws my attention. Most people don’t even know it exists.
Me too, dude! We don’t officially move until Aug 1st, so am not a ‘Topangan’ just yet
We’re moving to Fernwood in the lower canyon, which is ‘country’ enough for us suburbanites. Fernwood Pacific, about a mile before it turns into Tuna Canyon - views to die for…
Though its part of my cunning plan, as I want to try it out before we buy, most probably in the Canyon, if prices come down enough in the next 3-4 years.
We had a look at another place waaay up in Greenleaf Canyon that was amazing - well, the house itself wasn’t up to much, but it was on 18 acres with only 3 other structures. Lack of working washing machine and useable floorspace, plus no cell-phone coverage kind of put us off. I’m up for it, but the Husband likes his creature comforts and did’t much fancy driving the single-lane road in the dark.
And, I also find it hiarious that its right in between Pacific Palisades and Malibu, and no one knows its there…
Hopefully it will stay that way, because its a little gem that needs to be obscure and hard to find, to stay that way.
Cool, Please remember to give an update in another 6 months. I’ve always wondered what it would be like to live there.
SP,
(Native Valley kid here)
Please do remember that there is a significant fire hazard in Topanga (and the mountains, in general). We’ve had a number of friends there who’ve had to evacuate a few times because of the fires. It can be quite unsettling. Just something to contemplate as you consider buying/renting there.
Please…. keep this jewel secret!
Tomorrow is music in the park in San Jose and Campbell. I’m trying to think where Wednesday’s is. Los Gatos?
Some type of nonsense goes on in Maryland, land of the Undying Housing Bubble. People regularly live 1+ away from their jobs because the houses near the employment centers are totally unaffordable… the ones an hour away are just “mostly” unaffordable?! Then, half the state (western panhandle and Eastern Shore) has practicaly no jobs while the central region is overbuilt, overcrowded, overpriced, etc. Yeah, we’re not too smart on the planning here!
I’m a soldier in the Canadian Forces and have bought on my last 2 postings. I rode the bubble up, and it seems I’ll be riding it at least part way down. Luckily prices were reasonable so the pain will be manageable. If only I could have found you guys a little earlier. Oh well. I think since we’re dragged around the countryside, and the world, we have a little stronger desire to buy a house for the illusion of stability it provides. Tough to fight, especially when we’re trained to ‘pull the trigger’* for a living.
Two questions:
1) What do the numbers look like? Housing prices, rents, etc. You gave us a bit of info on ability to buy, but not on the market.
2) Are you sure you’re getting out? How confident are you on job prospects holding in the area for civilian employment?
* by pull the trigger, I mean make big decisions in a hurry with only the partial information available in the fog of war. You’ve had the fog of war lifted here, however, so no excuses.
O’ Canada….eh?
Sorry,
Had to throw that in…..
You would be amazed at how much we (the coalition partners)jive each other here. You havent lived until you hear a british soldier ribbing a canadian or aussie. Some of the funniest jokes I have ever heard!
Are you sure you’re getting out?
You guys really have the jokes today dont you? Oh yea, it’s a wrap…
The job situation is different. I dont know what the market will be like anywhere, but I am in IT, so I hope to weather the market.
I agree with the sentiments to wait it out until you retire. ‘13 isn’t too far away, and you’ll be able to rent for a little while as you get settled into a new job and then find a place to buy once you’ve adjust to civilian laziness.
I recommend against a long commute. You’ve spent enough time away from the tax deductions that you’ll resent being ‘home’ and not being able to see them. When I was younger I didn’t mind a 50 mile commute, and I’d do it on motorcycles anyway. Now I’ve got an 3 mile commute and a baby and I couldn’t imagine spending an hour getting home just to get there to watch her fall asleep and that’s it. Admittedly your kids are older with later bedtimes, but it’s a similar situation.
I recommend against the long commute too. My longie was 20 miles at 40 - 60 minutes. Talk about wasted life and dread on Sunday for the drive on Monday. I swear less too now. It’s like I used them all up.
On question 2. I love my short commute, but really that a personal choice that depends on what YOU want. But it’s probably a good idea to RENT a place with a long commute to try it out and SEE for youself what the personal cost is before going out and buying and being stuck with the choice for years and years.
Now THAT makes sense, but the wife has been without her own house for the last 17 years. She is itching to call something her own. Although I tell her until we pay the mortgage off, we are only “renting” it from the bank…
Then after you pay it off you are “renting” it from the city/county/state…
everyone rents in this world….I think the Next is timeshares
Once upon a time I lived in Herndon, VA and worked in Laurel, MD. The drive was 1.75 hours each way on a good day, and there were very few good days. I saw my kids so seldom they started calling me “Uncle Daddy.” Please reconsider the long commute, and thanks for your service.
If you can, wait. At this point 2013 seems just about the right time. That could change of course.
After the Savings & Loan debacle of the late 80s and early 90s, it wasn’t until 1997 that RE started coming back here in Houston, and this is an RE developers city.
Before the comeback, you could get some spectacular deals on houses in the inner city. We’re talking huge old growth trees and quaint 1000-2000sq ft bungalows with big front porches and detached garages that needed some TLC in nice middle class neighborhoods, but could be had for 40-60K. 5 years later and 30k worth of remodeling, they would sell for 260K. If you were lucky, someone would want to build townhouses on your lot and you could get 300K because the developer was going to build 3-4 townhouses and sell them for 300k each.
That’s a lot of salad.
But it would not have been possible without the S&L and corresponding RE collapse.
So wait. Keep shopping and trust me, you’ll know when it’s time.
2013 worst case, moving forward on the L shaped recovery.
Commute, you could definitely do it for a couple years. Mine is just over 1 hour each way. I listen to the radio and think, it is peaceful alone time, then the voices start, please make the voices stop!!!
A couple of days back, the talk was that CIT was going to be deemed too-small-to-save. I guess it managed to gain admission to the too-big-to-fail bailout club after all? Does this increase California’s prospects?
Wall Street Journal
TODAY’S PRINT EDITION
Wednesday, July 15, 2009
MONEY & INVESTING
CIT, U.S. Near Deal on Aid
CIT and federal regulators are working out details of an aid package designed to help the troubled lender resolve its deepening liquidity crisis.
This free money policy will not end well. I cannot believe that the yearly deficit figures may potentially hit $2 trillion….which is…..get ready…. almost 1/5 of our current 11 trillion dollar nation debt.
The real bubble is getting ready to burst kiddies. I call $5/gallon (and the domino inflation that will result) gas in 2 years…the world will not let us print out way out of this mess without ramifications.
The $5 gallon of gas will be one of the hidden taxes from Obama on those making under $250,000 a year.
Just like last year when that sneaky Obama made the price go up to $4 gallon and he wasn’t even President yet!
Yes of course, because gas price changes can’t possibly have more than one cause.
(continuing the same weird logic)
Gas prices are affected by 2 things and 2 things only; demand and heavy manipulation.
LOL - that’s kind of like saying “A car only has two parts - an inside and an outside.”
“Gas prices are affected by 2 things and 2 things only; demand and heavy manipulation.”
So I guess you would put taxes in the heavy manipulation category?
Given that this bust looks like a total reboot of the US financial and economic system, maybe $5 gallon gas is a good thing, in that it will encourage more rational lifestyles. (ie less singles living in 5000 sf houses, less use of monster SUVs to drive across town, etc) Of course good old-fashioned poverty will probably accomplish the same thing.
Sorry, but if I want to live a simple lifestyle - I’d rather do it by choice rather than being forced to by financial PTB.
It will only hurt those without a lot of money. The rest will not be fazed, at least not directly. Five-dollar a gallon gas will raise the prices on everything, so that those without a lot of discretionary income will be in bad shape.
This could all be prevented by drilling for oil HERE instead of depending on someone else drilling for oil THERE. If the environment HERE is so important, why is the environment THERE so unimportant? Pollution is pollution, no matter where it originates, but drilling in Third World countries creates way more of it because there is far less regulation.
If environmentalists were serious, they would insist that we encourage local drilling with strict environmental safeguards, instead of dumping the responsibility on countries with few or none.
Not sure I follow the logic of $5/gallon making singles move to smaller houses. I would imagine it would have a bigger effect on married couples with 2+ cars.
I thought gas consumption was down? If anything, $5 a gas just means new epic wins for Exxon and the like.
Tesla motors sedan. $50K. 300 mile range. All electric. If 1/3rd the country moves to electric cars, what does that do to gas demand?
If environmentalists were serious, they would insist that we encourage local drilling with strict environmental safeguards, instead of dumping the responsibility on countries with few or none.
Somehow “environmentalists”* seem to miss that point. They somehow think that if we enact stricter laws here, that it’s setting a good example for the rest of the world - ignoring the fact that such laws only drive manufacturing, oil extraction, etc. to other countries who have no such laws in place, resulting in a net loss for the environment.
* Who exactly are these “environmentalists”? I care about the environment, and do what I can (within reason) to help improve it. Does that make me one? Or is the term reserved for tree-spiking Californians?
This could all be prevented by drilling for oil HERE instead of depending on someone else drilling for oil THERE.
Your kidding. The US does not sit on a sea of oil, Oil production has steadily declined despite technology and despite the fact that the vast majority of US soil is open to drilling. Bakken and Three Forks (open to drilling) are huge question marks despite years of people trying to get oil out of there efficiently. Even the optomists note that Oil in Arctic National Wildlife Preserve will be a blip in world oil production. Oil shale and coal are plentiful. I’m all for 5-10 dollar a gallon gas. All the incentives for OPEC and big oil companies are for them to lie about how much they have so my guess is we have far less then the gov or anyone else is telling us.
Electric cars are not the way to go.
Cars in the USA should run on natural gas.
Well, I guess $5 gallon gas implies high energy costs across-the-board which makes a huge house too costly for one person to heat/cool. I definitely am not rooting for high fuel prices, I’m just saying sometimes change (even for the good) has to be “forced” a little, and high prices are a more pleasant force than most. I’m not saying it’s ideal, just how it often seems to happen in history. Really the same argument as those who want a gas surcharge when gas is cheap to encourage alternative fuels, but in this situation we have no choice (ie it’s forced) because the price is “naturally” high.
“Who exactly are these “environmentalists?”‘
Well, packman, they certainly are not libertarians or conservatives.
*Those* people love pollution. They want their kids to drink polluted water and breathe in filthy air.
If environmentalists were serious, they would insist that we encourage local drilling with strict environmental safeguards, instead of dumping the responsibility on countries with few or none.
Please
Oil will get extracted based on economics. The environmentalists may delay a small amount of oil production in the US but they will not stop it. I guarantee that when oil reaches 100-200+ dollars a barrel for long periods all those areas will be opened up. In reality what environmentalists will do is keep the US from drilling for oil now when it is cheap and will allow the US to save it’s oil for when it is invaluable.
In regards to manufacturing go visit China and see what it’s like to live in a country with little environmental regulation. We should tax products from countries that don’t adhere to some basic environmental and labor standards.
“Given that this bust looks like a total reboot of the US financial and economic system, maybe $5 gallon gas is a good thing, in that it will encourage more rational lifestyles. (ie less singles living in 5000 sf houses, less use of monster SUVs to drive across town, etc) Of course good old-fashioned poverty will probably accomplish the same thing.”
Allelieuh and Amen to that.
Well, packman, they certainly are not libertarians or conservatives.
*Those* people love pollution. They want their kids to drink polluted water and breathe in filthy air.
Nice strawman. Care to back up such a statement? Where have you seen any libertarian say that they want pollution? Libertarians just take a different tact. Rather than through regulation, they’d rely on private property rights (among other things) to address the pollution issue.
If 1/3rd the country moves to electric cars, the national electric grid will collapse, unless we build a couple dozen nuclear power plants, and that takes 20 years, minimum, not to mention upgrading the grid to deliver the extra juice to charge those batteries. If crude oil gets to $200/barrel, does anyone think it will really matter how much drilling is done? Maybe a miracle will happen. Otherwise, the era of Happy Motoring, powered by whatever, is ending.
Drumminj -
Huh? What libertarian DOESN’T like pollution?
I’m a libertarian and I love to drink filthy water. As a libertarian yourself, do you not like sticking your face into a tailpipe of a car? Come on, admit it.
Don’t deny you enjoy it - environmentalists say you do enjoy it, and of course, they are correct. This is because you are EVIL and they are the blessed.
Religious fanaticism isn’t just a right-wing phenomenom.
“It will only hurt those without a lot of money. The rest will not be fazed, at least not directly. Five-dollar a gallon gas will raise the prices on everything, so that those without a lot of discretionary income will be in bad shape.”
Are there actually any suckers left that believe this lie? If the price “on everything” goes up as you wildly claim, then nobody buys anymore “everything”.
Then guess what happens……
“Cars in the USA should run on natural gas.”
+1. Clean combustion, and lots of supply right here at home.
Clean combustion, and lots of supply right here at home.
I know gasoline explodes, but can you imagine J6P, drunk trying to fill up a tank with a cig in his mouth with a chemical more unstable than Nitro? I dont know if I want to see that one…
BOOM!!
Incredulous said:
“This could all be prevented by drilling for oil HERE instead of depending on someone else drilling for oil THERE. If the environment HERE is so important, why is the environment THERE so unimportant? Pollution is pollution, no matter where it originates, but drilling in Third World countries creates way more of it because there is far less regulation.”
Reality is that the THERE oil is a lot cheaper than the HERE oil, so it makes a lot of sense to buy the THERE oil. All the cheap HERE oil has been pumped out & flushed through a tailpipe.
We can certainly drill for oil all over the U.S., but nobody wants to pay $5.00/gal., or $20 if you want to squeeze shale.
As much as we all hate environmentalists and all that they stand for, they’re really not calling the shots on this one.
Personally, I think we need to think laterally about the problem - we have enough oil, but our methods of tranportation are b0rked, and we lose so much by non-weatherised houses and buildings, inefficient electric grid systems and a chronic lack of decent storage for the likes of solar and wind collection.
I’d rather the money for new oil/coal/nuclear powered stations was put towards R&D for a battery that would store household power produced at a price where its affordable to pretty much everyone, and an energy grid that can cheaply and efficently shift power from one area to another.
I’d like to see the US become the world leader in efficent and renweable energy tehcnology - but I fear that vested interests, fear of change and worry about costs will stop that dead in its tracks.
You could say I’m a dreamer…..
Libertarians just take a different tact. Rather than through regulation, they’d rely on private property rights (among other things) to address the pollution issue.
HAHAHAHAHAHAHa! *gasp, gasp* HAHAHAHAHAH!…
Oh, gosh, drumminj, thanks. I ’bout popped my lungs, there. Nothing better than a good, hearty laugh in the morning.
After lunch I’m going to ask you specifically what “(among other things)” means, because I REALLY anticipate hearing them. But don’t tell me until after lunch. That way I can ration out my lung poppings.
North American natural gas has already gone
past peak. You can drill all you want but the fact remains that we are entering a new paradigm on energy resources.
I’m a libertarian and I love to drink filthy water. As a libertarian yourself, do you not like sticking your face into a tailpipe of a car? Come on, admit it.
I’m guessing you were being sarcastic in your original post and I missed it? Otherwise I’m totally lost…
I sure picked a bad day to stop drinking.
“Stop drinking every day and start up every night.”
Yes - I was being sarcastic.
Tho you may want to drop your drinking habit. Any day now, the government will be able to track your all your purchases of alcohol via your driver’s license. Or your mandatory ID if you do not possess a driver’s license.
No, I’m not kidding.
Welcome to Patriot Act Part II, courtesy of Obama.
BTW, where did all the Patriot Act uproar go since Obama took office? He hasn’t negated the act, has he?
Natural Gas is horrible. We buy a huge amount of Canada’s production. I know that we use use it for electrical generation during peak demand.
If the cars are charged at night when peak demand is off, then I doubt the grid would collapse. Consumption goes down at midnight versus 4pm.
Any day now, the government will be able to track your all your purchases of alcohol via your driver’s license. Or your mandatory ID if you do not possess a driver’s license.
Really? Yet another excellent reason to homebrew, huh huh huh!
I’ll stop when they pry the beer can out of my cold, dead hand.
And the Nimbus Old Monkeyshine beer bottle out of my cold, dead hand.
we are already importing natural gas. we cannot produce enough anymore for our own consumption. wonder why we are building LNG terminals?
Really? Yet another excellent reason to homebrew, huh huh huh!
Mmmmmm….. beeeeer.
darthrealtor, I call $10 per gallon in the next eight years. We’re not running out of oil. We’re running out of cheap oil. fuel is just one of hundreds of uses for oil.
stocks (particularly oil stocks), TIPS, and precious metals should be the heavyweight in your portfolio.
Agreed.
That’s my plan, too. My theory is:
1) We’ll eventually run out of cheap oil partly because we know the supply is not infinite and partly because people are stupid and will continue to pave over every corner of the planet and fill it with consumer junk until they simply can’t do it any more - no planning for more expensive energy.
2) Somewhere along the line, the dollar will crash since we can’t keep spending far more than we make forever.
I thought you were throwing your money away if you rent? Who said that?
Obama mulls rental option for homeowners -sources
PLAN WHOSE TIME HAS COME?
Two years ago, a liberal economist floated the idea that struggling homeowners could become long-term renters. Dean Baker, a researcher with the Center for Economic Policy Research in Washington, says his idea still has merit and overcomes the key moral hazards of helping troubled homeowners.
“It is a very simple, clean way to help these people,” said Baker, who has discussed his idea with White House officials.
Under Baker’s plan, a bankruptcy judge would help determine a fair rent for the property. Banks would be able to sell the occupied homes, but the renter’s lease would remain in effect.
“Borrowers would lose their stake in the home so it is hard to say that they’ve gotten a windfall,” he said. Officials are mulling several ideas on how to swap a homeowner’s loan for a rental lease without disrupting mortgage markets.
The government could pay mortgage service companies cash to take part in the program — or encourage lenders to sell the homes to a third party that would write rental agreements — under two scenarios under consideration.
Many non-profit agencies manage affordable properties and might be interested in partnering in such a rental program, said John Taylor, the president of the National Community Reinvestment Coalition.
“It could be a ‘win-win’ for the homeowner, the lender who has a troubled borrower and the non-profit,” he said. (Reporting by Patrick Rucker; Editing by Jan Paschal)
‘“It could be a ‘win-win’ for the homeowner, the lender who has a troubled borrower and the non-profit,” he said. (Reporting by Patrick Rucker; Editing by Jan Paschal)’
Sounds more like a ’screw-you’ for non-owners (i.e. young families who are priced out of the housing market by sticky bubble prices).
Plus a screw you to the taxpayers, for the government paying the delta costs, and the extra cost to administer this hugely-inefficient program.
And a screw you to the landlords when the rental market improves, but they’re tied in to existing judge-mandated rent prices. And another screw-you to landlords when they’re not allowed to kick out bad tenants.
Etc. etc.
It’s a win-win-win-screw situation. The screwed being the only innocent party involved.
Agreed.
The win-win is for the banks. With all of the inventory that won’t be sold anytime soon, someone needs to be in those houses in the winter to keep the pipes from freezing, keep vandals away, etc while the banks collect rent and or offload the properties.
Is anyone keeping tabs on how much public money is getting sunk into helping banks shore up their bad gambling debt?
You think that Heli-ben really wants us to know that? Look at the recently failed attempt to audit the Fed.
Just look away folks….nothing to see here.
You mean like an actual audit??? Surely you jest.
I don’t think that this would be a win for the banks. They would have two choices:
1.)Become landlords holding on to a depreciating asset even as their capital declines, OR
2.)Still try to sell into a declining market, only they would be removing optimistic, knife catching, owner/occupiers from the potential buyers of the property, because there would be a tenant in the house with a lease the the purchaser was bound to accept. So the price that they could get for the property would be lower.
“1.)Become landlords holding on to a depreciating asset even as their capital declines, OR”
If the banks hold the properties through the bust, there is no need for them to ever mark them to market. They can hold them on the books at dramatically above-market prices. Ergo they stay solvent.
Plus they have the added benefit of getting guaranteed rent payments from the government. In other words, another huge and continuing subsidy to keep them both liquid and solvent.
Talk about win-win for the banks!
If the banks hold the properties through the bust, there is no need for them to ever mark them to market. They can hold them on the books at dramatically above-market prices. Ergo they stay solvent.
This I suspect is the crux of the plan - to *never* mark these properties to market, by virtue of never selling them individually to a separate private party (e.g. individual buyer).
However it’s not feasible for the banks to hold onto them themselves indefinitely, for this reason: rental properties will constantly bleed money, unless you do most of the maintenance work yourself. The banks can’t afford that, and they just aren’t in the business of doing home maintenance.
So I think the long-term plan is for these properties to be pooled somehow, and eventually just shifted over to government ownership. The government doesn’t have to show a profit, so it give a rats a@@ about a constant bleed of maintenance expenses. And the government has the added bonus of paying taxes to itself!
That’s why I think this plan is so bad, and so dangerous. It’s a backdoor to nationalized housing.
“It’s a backdoor to nationalized housing.”
I see it as an open invitation for the big Megabank, Inc sponsored home builders to add more new homes to the inventory pyre. One way or another, the gubmint will eventually take (re)possession of homes the next generation of buyers will purchase but eventually will not be able to afford. The mavens of Megabank, Inc and the Robert Tolls of the world will split the subsidy, including provision for a kickback to the politicians who made it all possible.
I’ve been to Romania, Hungary, Russia, and Cuba and seen a lot of commie/former commie housing, and take it from me, it ain’t pretty. Welcome to the new Amerika, comrades!
Just visited the Czech Republic. Czesky Krumlov is one of the loveliest towns on the planet, built along a bend in the Vltava River. But during their brief tenure, the Soviets managed to mar the skyline with ugly, concrete block apartment buildings which provide a hideous backdrop to an otherwise picturesque locale.
An, everyone will lose here, except the bankers since they get a steady income stream. Since that’s all that matters, I expect this will pass.
1) “Owners” get to rent from the government, the most blessed and merciful of landlords!
2) Renters get priced out forever since nobody ever has to sell their house if the government basically controls the market, hordes empty houses, etc.
3) Banks get to keep playing pretend and act like it is still 2005!
Chains we can believe in!
Who is going to buy these homes if they are encumbered with leases? Do the new owners get to kick the renters out?
Sounds like a win-win-lose to me.
““It could be a ‘win-win’ for the homeowner, the lender who has a troubled borrower and the non-profit,” he said.”
As usual, the one left out of the equation is the one who actually takes on the risk…..whoever buys the property.
Arbitrary “fair” rents will most likely be plenty low enough for people to afford, thus driving down the sale price for anyone willing to take the risk of buying since they’ll want a decent return on their money.
Drive the rents low enough, and the landlord will be the guvmint, i.e. you and me.
As I think packman said yesterday, getting more outrageous all the time.
“Drive the rents low enough, and the landlord will be the guvmint”
Tomorrows slums and ghettoes in the making! Who in their right mind would buy property next to homes with rent control?
Heck lets make the rents free and we’ll have one big commune! (Like they used to do back in the day.)
I like that idea. I can always put bars on my windows and doors!
No, man, we don’t need bars cause there’s, like, no reason to steal. Well, we might want to keep the wombats out.
Watch out Bink!
This was another announcement that nearly gave me a heart attack, and/or made me go to the garage looking for a pitchfork. Dear TPTB, I can only take so much.
I am still trying to see something we’re missing… but so far I am only really pissed off.
The real reason for offering a so-called “rental option” is to eliminate incentives for the “walkaway option” which face a record number of US homeowners. If the “rental option” plan passes, then people who bought homes they could not afford will turn out to be the winners, and those who avoided purchasing homes at unaffordable bubble prices or who have yet to enter the housing market will turn out retrospectively to be the losers.
The biggest loser out of this whole mess may well be America’s future prosperity. A system which relies on policy measures that reward profligacy and punish thrift is doomed to soon self destruct.
Housing Bust
‘Ruthless’ Homeowners Pose Risk To Obama Plans
Maurna Desmond, 07.13.09, 06:40 PM EDT
Mortgage borrowers may be more willing to abandon homes to lenders than administration assumes, survey suggests.
The Obama administration is banking on the idea that troubled homeowners will stick with their mortgages as long as the payments are made more affordable. However, a new study suggests that sliding home values could lead a significant number to walk away even if they could afford to pay.
In a recent survey of 1,000 U.S. households, researchers found that 5% of the homeowners sampled were willing to default “strategically” if their homes were worth 10% to 20% less than their mortgages–i.e. they would turn over the keys even if they still had the means to pay off the loan. Some 17% said they would leave their home to their lender if its value slid to 50% of the mortgage.
…
So now their calling wise business decisions “ruthless”? The government is doing its best to lock people into their homes.
Never has the saying “The things you own end up owning you” been more apt.
theirthey’re” calling wise business decisions ‘ruthless’ ”
Well, how dare the plebs act like their betters. It’ll screw the whole system up.
You hit the nail smack-dab on the head, alpha-sloth!
Agree!
“The Obama administration is banking on the idea that troubled homeowners will stick with their mortgages as long as the payments are made more affordable. ”
Yep, great business acumen here!! We put the people who couldn’t afford the house, i.e. low income into a rental agreement to questionable maintain the property until the value comes back while the smart wealthier house owner sends in the keys and waits to see where to buy in the future at a cheaper price.
The government just does not get the fact that if the wealthier get poorer that the poorer do not get wealthier no matter how they want to redistribute the wealth!!!!!
The government just does not get the fact that if the wealthier get poorer that the poorer do not get wealthier no matter how they want to redistribute the wealth!!!!!
The redistribution of wealth is not going from the elite to the poor it’s just the oposite. The poor middle class slob who has lost his down payment and now is locked in a long term lease despite the fact that rents are falling is the looser. The winner as with everything our gov has done is the bank who keeps the place rented until it wants to sell down the road. It get’s to keep the losses off the books.
“The Obama administration is banking on the idea that troubled homeowners will stick with their mortgages as long as the payments are made more affordable. However, a new study suggests that sliding home values could lead a significant number to walk away even if they could afford to pay.”
I’m not sure what this year’s stat is, but in 2008, a full 50% of houses that went into foreclosure were empty. The FB had already walked. And most foreclosures happen without any communication between the bank and the FB.
People don’t want these overpriced houses the minute they realize there’s no payout. Mortgage balances are too high for FB’s to want to stick it out, and home prices are still too high for the smart money sitting on the sidelines. Yet every month we see another crazy gov’t scheme to “stabilize” prices. At some point, J6P has to realize this has nothing to do with “keeping families in their homes” and everything to do with keeping up revenue streams for the big banks.
BTW, a friend is an appraiser for B of A here in the Bay Area….said that Obama & Co. have about 9 months to figure out “what to do”…..guess the next wave of foreclosures is looking truly massive.
The very assumption that the government has to “do” something is the root of the problem.
Sometimes the best solution is no solution.
But, alas, the do-nothing option is the one impossible option in a democracy. Unless, of course, you can do nothing while appearing to do something. A skill few have, but Obama, perhaps, may?
Make that “In a crisis, the do-nothing option is the one impossible option”
The rest of the time it works rather well.
Obamba and crew is looking to raise taxes on the rich for health care which I fully agree with. Better late than never.
Social security, medicare, and all of the other baby boomer obligations that need to be funded will be funded by who? The middle class whose $20+ an hour MFG jobs were sent offshore and replaced with $8.00 an hour service industry jobs? Can’t get blood (taxes) from a stone. And whose short sited thinking facilited offshoring? It was the baby boomer type CEOs who got rich after pushing / lobbying congress. Lots of nice short term thinking here.
Alpha,
Right on target with the do-nothing option not an option in crisis. I’ve really enjoyed your posts - a lot of power packed in just a few words.
Thank. You.
The road to hell is paved with good intentions.
How’s that?
as long as its paved
Thanks, Lisa — awesome post. I am much less pissed.
The only gig in town is keep your job and buy a house at a cheaper price. Everything else is gambling (in a ‘rewrite the rules’ era).
About 9 months from now it will be mid-April, 2010, the heart of the spring selling season. I wonder if the seasonality had anything to do with the BofA appraiser’s comment.
Ol’Bubba -
My appraiser friend did say that most of their department’s work these days is dealing with the toxic Countrywide portfolio that B of A inherited….said most of those loans are beyond help and don’t qualify for any sort of refinancing or modification…and that they are quickly running out of qualified re-fi candidates.
Something wicked this way comes, was crystal clear from our conversation.
I have always suspected that once folks go through the re-fi / mod process and are told by their servicer just how under-water they really are, that the rose colored glasses and green shoots are DOA. Unemployment in CA is still rising, and the pain is spreading up the food chain. And the bigger the loan balance, the bigger the likelihood of a “strategic” default. At some point, you look like an idiot continuing to make those mortgage payments.
I
Michigan (officially) hit 15.2 % today. The actual unemployment rate is probably closer to 20 %. The official unemployment rate will probably 20 % by the end of 2010, or mid 2011. The housing stock keeps growing, both in size, and emptiness.
5% and even 17% are fairly tiny percentages. Perhaps the sampling was skewed towards recourse states, or homes under, say, $150K, or even retirement areas (folks who plan to die in their paid-off houses don’t have care as much about its value). Or perhaps these people aren’t doing the math… 10% doesn’t sound too bad, certainly not as bad as if the question had been phrased as “$100K underwater” (a more realistic scenario for many areas). I would have expected the number of willing walk-aways to be much higher.
Given the times we live in, these don’t seem like terribly worrisome numbers IMHO.
The low 17% reported could be because people don’t want to admit they’re will to do something ‘drastic’ like walking away from their mortgage/house. The govt and Wallstreet have done their best to make jingle mail = beating your mother with a garden hose. People may be planning on it, but not willing to admit it to a surveyor.
Also, someone has to be living in the house to answer the phone to be part of the survey.
The Obama administration is banking on the idea that troubled homeowners will stick with their mortgages as long as the payments are made more affordable.
BWAHAHA!
Yes, I can afford $1700/mo on my $200k house that is now worth $135k. I can’t wait until I faithfully pay off my mortgage in 25 years so I can sell and capture all that negative equity. Yippee!
Yes and that ‘negative equity’ has to be paid back to the government when you decide to sell. After all, they have to get something for allowing you to stay in your home.
But is that before or after you lose your job?
“It could be a ‘win-win’ for the homeowner, the lender who has a troubled borrower and the non-profit,” he said.
In the last few months I have had several reasonable offers turned down (reasonable 1999 prices) on houses that are bank owned and still sitting empty today. Yesterday my LL who hasn`t seen the house I rent from them in four years and I am 99.9% sure have not paid their neg-am mortgage in four months told me they had a realtor who said I could buy this (POS) house on a short sale with no money out of pocket using the first time tax credit and own it for less than what the rent is, and they are not making a dime on the deal (I guess the $40,000 HELOC they took out before they left doesn`t count) They are also trying to get a cram down on the house they bought when they moved back to Long Island in 05.
When are people who pay their bills, taxes, insurance and have a 20% down payment on a $200,000 house plus a substantial back up beyond that and live on less than they make be looking at a ‘win-win’ and the lender who has a troubled borrower and the troubled borrower be looking at a lose-lose?
A neighbor across the street passed away a few years ago. About a year later the son rents out the house. Son started a restaurant and the business is floundering. With little warning the son tells the tenants he needs to sell the house A.S.A.P and that they need to stay at a hotel through the weekend to allow for an open house. Tenants were less than enthused, but stayed at the hotel this past weekend. Couldn’t imagine being a renter and having to put up with that crap.
The son would get a big F.O. from this renter…
You can’t put tenants out of their premises to hold an open house. They have paid for the use of the premises without being hassled by the landlord. They are entitled to peaceful use of the premises until their lease is terminated. They have to be given due notice as to when the landlord even wants to come inside. They should get an attorney ASAP. The landlord can’t even evict them without due process if their rent is paid up, on time. In fact, they can’t be evicted without due process even if their rent isn’t paid up on time. They’re being way too accomodating to that nutbag LL.
I’d say, “We’re staying here this weekend, but you’re welcome to bring people over for an open house. I’ll just be out on the porch, cleaning my shotgun.”
Here in CA we have Civil Code 1954 to protect renter rights. Here are just some of the rules that apply to sellers selling their rental property:
1. Notice of entry for showing must be given in writing 24 hours prior. Written notice has to be handed to the renter and cannot be mailed or given to a child, friend, invalid, etc.
2. Showings must take place during normal business hours (M-F 9 5). Not on weekends!
3. You cannot be asked to leave the premises.
4. If anyone, including Realtors and prospective buyers enter the premises without notice you can call local law enforcement and have them arrested for criminal trespass. You the renter can sue the persons who trespassed for $5000 each in civil court. Imaging an agent gets the key and shows a nice couple the place. You walk in on them, have them arrested, then sue for $15,000.
As soon as you pay that rent you have the exclusive right to occupy. No entry is allowed without 24 hour notice unless it’s an emergency.
I just went thru this a few months back. My LL actually tried to let herself in while I was gone without notification. Thank god I changed the locks when I moved in. She wanted to have an open house on the weekend. I said NO!
But, I wasn’t unreasonable. I agreed she could show the place M-F during normal business hours with 24 hour verbal notice accompanied by an email. Also, explained to her that I would be present during showings (guns and valuables in the house and didn’t want them opening the closet to see a huge safe).
In Sacramento, once you’ve lived in place and paid rent on time for 1 year they have to give you 60 days notice. The worst she or anyone else could do is kick me out.
Gee - what a great idea!
How much you wanna bet that the majority of all these new renters will let the properties quickly fall into decline? How much you wanna bet that homeowners living next door such properties will see the value of their properties and neighborhoods decline as the renters trash it?
Is this what Obama did when he was vacationing and hob-nobbing with bankers a few weeks ago?
Sounds about right.
“Borrowers would lose their stake in the home so it is hard to say that they’ve gotten a windfall,” he said.
Poor borrowers, they’ll lose that $100k underwater “stake in the home”.
Throw ‘em in the street!
To my recollection, the “rent and owner’s equivalent rent” expenditure share in CPI was only 28 pct back in the early-1990s (versus its current 39 pct level). I am wondering how household consumption of housing services could have increased so much; are people simultaneously living in more than one house these days?
* The Wall Street Journal
* AHEAD OF THE TAPE
* JULY 15, 2009
Rental Market: the New Inflation Fighter
By MARK GONGLOFF
…key to the inflation outlook, or at least the CPI’s imperfect measure of it, is the rental market. Rent and an exotic construction called “owners’ equivalent rent,” which measures what owners give up by occupying instead of renting their homes, together make up roughly 39% of core CPI. As such, what residential landlords can fetch can significantly affect the world’s perception of inflation.
A small army of former homeowners and would-be buyers unable to get credit are now hunting for shelter in the rental market, putting some upward pressure on rents.
But pressures in the other direction may prove stronger in the long run. A young generation too shellshocked by the Great Recession to leave their parents’ homes has helped push the national rental vacancy rate to 10.1%, near a record, notes J.P. Morgan economist Robert Mellman. Rising unemployment will make it harder for landlords to raise the rent.
Rent typically declines for at least a year after a recession, as leases often take a year to turn over, which keeps them deceptively expensive for a time.
…
With all those foreclosed houses purchased by investors and put up for sale, the BLS should get a better fix on what the “housing” as opposed to the “investment” value of those houses is really worth.
With a 10.1% vacancy rate, that “housing” value is surely going down.
And if rents are falling, and prices are falling, the “investment” value may fall below the housing value if people no longer see the point of locking in their housing cost as an inflation hedge.
Bottom line: many people’s interests are served by inflation.
What’s in your wallet?
Capital One credit card defaults rise in June
NEW YORK (Reuters) - Capital One Financial Corp’s (NYSE:COF - News) U.S. credit card defaults rose in June as unemployment increased and Americans struggled to pay their debts, the company said on Wednesday.
In a regulatory filing, Capital One said the annualized net charge-off rate for U.S. credit cards — debts the company believes it will never collect — rose to 9.73 percent in June from 9.41 percent in May.
Capital One, one of the largest issuers of Visa and MasterCard branded credit cards, said credit cards at least 30 days delinquent — an indicator of future loan losses — fell for fourth straight month, to 4.77 percent from 4.90 percent.
For U.S. auto loans, Capital One’s charge-off rate rose to 3.89 percent in June from 3.62 percent in May, while the delinquency rate increased to 8.89 percent from 8.59 percent.
RE: Capital One
Funniest coincidence. Just as I read your post our department’s janitor came by to chit chat. She told me that Capital One sent her and her friend each a “check” for $18,000 with a letter saying the express intent was for them to use it to buy a new car. To put that in context, she might make the mid-20s.
Debt pushing still abounds. Our politicians and banks have no other solutions, the PTB at this juncture appears wholly incapable of innovation. Debt as wealth reigns supreme.
I used to get all sorts of Crap-ital One offers. Then I signed up with OptOutPrescreen.com and Mailstopper.com, which has flushed those lovely offers away from my mailbox.
But, if you’re not into signing up for things, here’s an idea: Scrawl nasty things all over those offers, then use the post-paid envelope to fire ‘em right back at the credit card companies. If a few million of us did that, I think that maybe-just-maybe they’d get the message.
Remember, it was the CCs that pushed for the bankruptcy “reform” 3 years ago.
They knew it was coming, but I’ll bet they didn’t think it was going to be this bad.
I’m crying crocodile tears here.
The depression IS OVER Whoo Hoo..now where are my multiple job offers….HUH?
—————————————————-
S&P to Hit 1050 by Fall: Strategist Sees a Rally in Market “Rorschach Test”
Perspective is reality, and that’s especially true of the stock market where two people can look at the exact same chart and come to diametrically opposed conclusions.
Lately, (nearly) every trader is looking at the S&P 500’s chart and seeing a head and shoulders pattern, which consists a left shoulder (peak one), the head (a higher peak), the right shoulder (lower peak), and the neckline (connecting the two “shoulders”). The neckline must be “broken” in order for the pattern to be complete.
“It’s the mother of all Rorschach tests - you see what you want to see,” says Vinny Catalano, president and global investment strategist with Blue Marble Research.
Indeed, some are saying the pattern is signaling a coming breakout rally, while others are declaring it a sign of a pending breakdown.
What Catalano sees is the bearish head and shoulders pattern - triggered by a break below S&P 880 on heavy volume - is based on a shorter time frame than the bullish view, which is triggered by a break above 950.
In other words, he’s making a bullish bet the market will break out to the upside - and hit 1050 by fall - rather than break down.
While not a technician by trade, Catalano says he pays attention to chart patterns for “the simple fact that many others pay attention to chart patterns, which then moves chart pattern analyses to the behavioral science realm - the study of your fellow investment rats and how they run the maze.”
“The depression IS OVER Whoo Hoo..”
Bluto: “Over? Did you say over? Nothing is over until we decide it is. Was it over when the Germans bombed Pearl Harbor? Hell, no.”
Otter: “Germans?”
Boon: “Forget it. He’s rolling.”
Bluto: “And it ain’t over now.”
“While not a technician by trade, Catalano says he pays attention to chart patterns for “the simple fact that many others pay attention to chart patterns, which then moves chart pattern analyses to the behavioral science realm - the study of your fellow investment rats and how they run the maze.””
Yet one more good reason to not invest in the stock markets.
I seem to recall hearing from the Old Folks (meaning the parents in the neighborhoods where I grew up) that the stock market was a very, very risky place. The Old Folks were children of the Great Depression, and knew of what they spoke.
I’m pretty sure the unofficial Wall St. motto is “Never give a sucker an even break.”
“Gamed” and “rigged” are polite terms for what really goes on.
SRS - more rigging than the Mayflower.
More decoy green propaganda shoots, IMHO:
SAN FRANCISCO (AP) –” Intel Corp.’s second-quarter results bolster the company’s position that the computer business is on the mend after its roughest patch in years.
Intel is the world’s biggest maker of microprocessors, the electronic brains of PCs. More than three-quarters of the world’s PCs use Intel chips. The company late Tuesday posted second-quarter sales substantially stronger than Wall Street expected, and its outlook suggests there’s more good news to come. The stock jumped 7 percent in after-hours trading.
That’s not to say that personal computers are flying off the shelves. PC makers are still hurting, which shows how brisk business for Intel might take months to translate into better numbers for its customers.
The No. 2 PC maker, Dell Inc., for example, warned this week that the U.S. computer market might have hit bottom, but its sales to businesses remain weak. CEO Michael Dell said penny-pinching computer buyers appear to be holding on to their existing machines for longer than is typical.”
The problem is, when you look at the actual numbers and read the actual guidance, Intel’s picture is not so bright.
They eliminated a few thousand employees, which helped the bottom line. But the average unit sale was lower, guidance was lower, and if Chinese stimulus money hadn’t been there, which it probably won’t be in the future, sales would have been a lot worse. U.S. sales and enterprise sales are weak, the company said in its conference call. So why does INTC trade at 20X earnings? Maybe Goldman Sachs buys and sells to its own book to prop it up, again, IMHO. Maybe the MSM has standing orders to cast all financial news in rosy pink predictions and green shoot headlines. This will work out great for somebody in a few months when Goldman is done floating this market top and shorts the living shoots out of it.
Everyone is jumping on the bandwagon to report tech’s big bright future thanks to Intel guidance. Who would think Michael Dell would be the one to tell it like it is.
Dell fails to mention Microsoft. The failure of Vista and now the unknown factors of Windows 7 make a compelling case for businesses to stay put for now.
I’m still sitting on a 2001 Dell 4300 running XP sp3. Works for me.
Didn’t MS say they would drop XP support soon?
PS: the industry is going to go to 64 bit software soon. So you should consider upgrading at some point.
PS: the industry is going to go to 64 bit software soon
And what is the compelling reason for this? The average PC/laptop consumer is using a web browser, IM, and office productivity software… absolutely no need for 64-bit software there. Some power users may use photo or video editing software and of course there are the gamers (like me). That is such a small part of the market today for computing that 64-bit will take years to make any in-roads.
There is a reason that netbooks, iPhones, and Blackberries are the device du jour for the masses connecting to the web. Then there are SaS providers like Google Apps. 64-bit computing for the consumer is an albatross IMHO. By the time we get consumer acceptance, consumers will be getting all their software from the web and dumb terminals will be in favor again.
I don’t think there is any hardware that requires Win7 to run. NT4 didn’t support Plug and Play, USB, or DVD. I can’t conceive of any reason to “upgrade” from XP.
BTW, I read that 7 was released in Britain today (3 months early) with the Pro version selling for £99.
“Strong earnings and an upbeat forecast from Intel Corp. pulled investors into the stock market Wednesday as hopes grew that the economy could be starting to recover. The chip maker’s results signal that computer sales are picking up faster than had been expected.”
What compleat, utter, unmitigated bull sheet.
And the Dow is plus +175 on this “news”.
Americans deserve the portfolio statements they get.
I’m holding onto my four-year-old Dell desktop PC for the simple reason that it still works. When it stops working, I’ll replace it.
In the meantime, I can get my work done with it, and that’s what’s most important.
Besides, it runs Windows XP like a charm.
“Maybe Goldman Sachs buys and sells to its own book to prop it up, again, IMHO. Maybe the MSM has standing orders to cast all financial news in rosy pink predictions and green shoot headlines. This will work out great for somebody in a few months when Goldman is done floating this market top and shorts the living shoots out of it.”
We have a winner.
I wanted to discuss that article brought up yesterday (link to follow).
NEW YORK (Reuters) - U.S. officials are weighing a plan to let borrowers who have fallen behind on mortgage payments avoid eviction by renting their home instead, sources familiar with the administration’s thinking said on Tuesday.
Under one idea being discussed, delinquent homeowners would surrender ownership of their homes, but would continue to live in the property for several years, the sources told Reuters.
Here’s the big question - and the glaring omission from the article:
RENT FROM WHOM?
SURRENDER OWNERSHIP TO WHOM?
It’s incredible to me that the article doesn’t even address this. Apparently they just don’t want you to realize that this is nationalized housing we’re talking about, payed for by the citizens* of course.
*I would say “taxpayers” but being that most things are paid for via general inflation, the scope is well beyond just people who pay taxes.
link
“…payed for by the citizens* of course…”
Do renters have to help pay for it?
Only if they buy the food they eat.
RENT FROM WHOM?
SURRENDER OWNERSHIP TO WHOM?
TARP for tenants. Guvmint-guaranteed rents and/or subsidies. Or guvmint as landlord with all the intermediaries in between. Loads of fun and games either way.
everyone’s assumption is that a foreclosure is the worst possible event that needs to be avoided at all costs.
We may discover something even worse with this little scheme.
Fear and Greed. All they need.
Divorces used to be shameful and embarassing and shocking. Now it’s weird if you’ve never been divorced. The same will probably be true for foreclosures.
good point
Sticking it out in a bad house vs. Sticking it out in a bad marriage…..
Interesting comparison, I’m going to let that one sit in the think tank for while….
When Timmy goes to school, he has to live with the stigma that his biological parents are still married. Poor, poor Timmy. “Timmy’s only has 2 parents, Timmy only has 2 parents, nyah, nyah. His mommy and daddy live together! Ewwwwww.”
it’ll warp him
johnny has two mommies, and little lucy lu had two daddies…
Should we all bet on whether this bill will actually come to fruition given the glaringly obvious lack of thought that has gone into it?
Isn’t this a fair description of what typically happens to Fed dollars in the tailwinds of every recession? Why else would the stock market go sky high while GDP is flagging and unemployment is increasing?
* The Wall Street Journal
* OPINION
* JULY 15, 2009
The Bernanke Market
We won’t get real growth until Congress and Treasury get policy right.
By ANDY KESSLER
I remember once buying the stock of a small company and I couldn’t believe my luck. Every time my fund bought more shares the stock would go up. So we bought even more and the stock kept climbing. When we finally built our full position and stopped buying the stock started dropping, ending up at a price below where we started buying it. We were the market.
Just about every policy move to right the U.S. economy after the subprime sinking of the banking system has been a bust. We saved Bear Stearns. We let Lehman Brothers go. We forced Merrill Lynch, Wachovia and Washington Mutual into the hands of others. We took control of Fannie and Freddie and AIG and even own a few car companies, pumping them with high-test transfusions. None of this really helped.
We have a zero interest-rate policy. We guaranteed bank debt. We set up the Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP) to buy toxic mortgage assets off bank balance sheets. But when banks refused to sell at fire sale prices, we just gave them the money instead. Dumb move. So we set up the Public-Private Investment Program to get private investors to buy these same toxic assets with government leverage, and still there are few sellers. Meanwhile, the $1 trillion federal deficit is crowding out private investment and the porky $787 billion stimulus hasn’t translated into growth.
At the end of the day, only one thing has worked — flooding the market with dollars. By buying U.S. Treasuries and mortgages to increase the monetary base by $1 trillion, Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke didn’t put money directly into the stock market but he didn’t have to. With nowhere else to go, except maybe commodities, inflows into the stock market have been on a tear. Stock and bond funds saw net inflows of close to $150 billion since January. The dollars he cranked out didn’t go into the hard economy, but instead into tradable assets. In other words, Ben Bernanke has been the market.
…
Author is asserting Bernake and his merry men have created a new stock market bubble with all the free flowing funds. Now if Ben can just change the economic laws to read the stock market leads and reflects the state of the US economy, rather than the other way around, we are golden.
Stock and bond funds saw net inflows of close to $150 billion since January.
But what was it last year?
I agree. It wasn’t long ago that there were articles noting how “cash on the sidelines” was at an all-time high. What goes up, must come down…
Once people decide that the world isn’t going to end, and they are tired of earning 0% in treasuries, they will start to take some risk again. And thus, the flow of capital back to the stock market from the sidelines.
Keep your eye focused on the runup in the stock prices, and you will feel better about the dollar’s decline on the world currency market.
From Bloomberg:
CURRENCY VALUE CHANGE % CHANGE TIME
EUR-USD 1.4116 0.0149 1.0664% 13:53
GBP-USD 1.6426 0.0118 0.7220% 13:53
USD-CHF 1.0736 -0.0154 -1.4117% 13:53
USD-SEK 7.7523 -0.1340 -1.6990% 13:53
USD-DKK 5.2740 -0.0571 -1.0707% 13:53
USD-NOK 6.3812 -0.0765 -1.1842% 13:53
USD-CZK 18.3210 -0.2588 -1.3930% 13:53
USD-SKK 21.3390 -0.2262 -1.0487% 13:53
USD-PLN 3.0343 -0.0516 -1.6737% 13:53
USD-HUF 193.2250 -3.5275 -1.7929% 13:53
USD-RUB 31.8610 -0.3881 -1.2035% 07/15
USD-TRY 1.5294 -0.0167 -1.0818% 13:47
USD-ILS 3.8908 -0.0685 -1.7301% 13:52
USD-KES 77.1750 -0.2000 -0.2585% 07/15
USD-ZAR 8.1078 -0.1544 -1.8693% 13:52
USD-MAD 7.9901 -0.0744 -0.9232% 13:53
If we don’t learn real soon that making money off other money provides no real tangibles and therefore benefit to the average citizen of this country, we are headed for big trouble.
You ain’t seen nothin’ yet!
Financial Times
Coalition to attack plan for Fed powers
By Francesco Guerrera in New York and Tom Braithwaite in Washington
Published: July 15 2009 05:01 | Last updated: July 15 2009 11:27
Barack Obama’s plan to give the Federal Reserve extensive powers over all large US financial groups will be attacked on Wednesday by a coalition of investors, analysts and ex-regulators who say the Fed’s credibility has been “tarnished” by its role in contributing to the crisis.
The strong stance by the investor community will fuel the heated debate over financial regulation and strengthen Congressional opposition to the administration’s push for the Fed to monitor any company whose failure would endanger the banking system.
…
I support Obama 100% on this one. TBTFs should not be allowed to exist…break them up and sell off the pieces.
No “private” company should be allowed to exist with an implicit government guarantee (are you listening, Goldman?), including Freddie and Fannie.
How does giving the Fed additional regulatory powers prevent TBTF? It does not.
Keep in mind, this is the same Fed who just demonstrated so thoroughly their complete inability to see systemic risk that is about to hit them in the face. We should have ZERO faith in their ability to monitor and reign in TBTF in the future.
I agree that TBTF is too big to exist. The the Fed is the _wrong_ entity to define the line where too-big-too-exist occurs.
I agree that TBTF is too big to exist. The the Fed is the _wrong_ entity to define the line where too-big-too-exist occurs. This would be more appropriately done by Congress. Congress used to do things like pass laws regulating monopolies and trusts. Unfortunately, Congress has abdicated.
Since when did “street walkers” abdicate?
Looking at Canada and Norway as examples, regulation is a necessary evil because a free market cannot operate freely without a referee to make sure everyone is playing by the same rules.
Abolishing the Fed would be Ron Paul’s wet dream, but the CFTC and SEC are too prone to inconsistent enforcement of anti-TBTF mandates based on political whims. The Fed at least has some independence from politics with its appointed governors, much like the Supreme Court.
Unless every other nation abolishes its central bank, we would be at the mercy of other countries manipulating their currencies to their own advantage (i.e. China and Europe). Also, abolishing the Fed is useless when Congress can create a monetary policy by effectively printing money at will, much like California is doing now. A balanced budget amendment would be a very necessary first step to reigning in the Fed, IMO.
“…TBTFs should not be allowed to exist…break them up and sell off the pieces….”
Isn’t that what Mr. Reagan did with our airline, telecommunications, energy, banking industries etc? Deregulate and sell everything off to cronies?
We saw how well that worked out in ex-Soviet Russia….
BTW, GREAT to see you back here, NSO. I’ve missed your thoughtful commentary.
Financial Times
Dollar falls as China reveals record stockpiles
By Peter Garnham
Published: July 15 2009 11:34 | Last updated: July 15 2009 11:34
The dollar fell to its lowest level in two weeks on Wednesday as China revealed it had amassed record cash stockpiles, while improving investor confidence stemmed haven demand for the US currency.
Analysts said positive earnings surprises from Goldman Sachs, the US bank, and Intel, the chipmaker, had boosted risk appetite, pushing investors away from the relative safety of the dollar and into riskier assets.
…
A one-month CPI increase of 0.7% occurs at an annualized rate of 100*(1.007^12-1) = 8.7%.
U.S. Consumer Prices Gain 0.7%; Core Rate Rises 0.2% (Update2)
By Courtney Schlisserman
July 15 (Bloomberg) — The cost of living in the U.S. rose more than forecast in June, led by a jump in energy costs that overshadowed slower price gains for other goods.
The consumer price index increased 0.7 percent after a 0.1 percent advance in May, the Labor Department said today in Washington. Excluding food and energy costs, the so-called core index rose 0.2 percent. Compared with a year earlier, prices fell 1.4 percent, the biggest drop since January 1950.
…
We had an asset price bubble with low consumer price inflation. Who is to say we can’t have the reverse?
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Jam Rec Rim
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Mr I Came Jr?
Jam Crimer
Mr Mice Jar
JC Rim Ream
Mr Im A Jerc
could be his porn-star alias
Yeah, ’cause I’d LOVE to watch him in action. Those beady little round wicked eyes rolled back in ecstasy…
*barfs copiously *
Slap a mask on him and JC Rim Ream will rock your world! Booyah!
Only if it’s a wombat mask.
*barfs copiously yet again *
Ooops. Apparently that’s not gonna work for me, either.
Sigh.
I never know what I’m going to enjoy or not, until I barf. That’s generally my clue.
I find what I enjoy often makes me barf. Life’s funny that way.
A red-headed weasel, that’s all he is. And that’s an insult to both redheads and weasels.
Makes me ashamed of my red-headed weasel.
“Goldman Sachs Shill”
Oh wait… darn, I’m never good at these things.
you asking them on a date?
Coalition to attack plan for Fed powers.
July 15 2009 11:27 FT
Barack Obama’s plan to give the Federal Reserve extensive powers over all large US financial groups will be attacked on Wednesday by a coalition of investors, analysts and ex-regulators who say the Fed’s credibility has been “tarnished” by its role in contributing to the crisis.
The strong stance by the investor community will fuel the heated debate over financial regulation and strengthen Congressional opposition to the administration’s push for the Fed to monitor any company whose failure would endanger the banking system.
Wednesday’s report, by an alliance including two former heads of the Securities and Exchange Commission, a group of investors with a total $3,000bn in assets and the investment analysts’ trade body, will break the investment industry’s silence on regulatory reform.
The 39-page document, seen by the Financial Times, calls for the creation of an independent body to police risks across the financial sector.
In contrast, last month’s government proposals envisage turning the Fed into a “systemic regulator” with powers to oversee large banks and insurers, such companies as General Electric, and possibly hedge funds and private equity firms.
A body proposed by the investors – the Systemic Risk Oversight Regulator – would have a full-time staff led by a chairman and four members appointed by the president and confirmed by the Senate, and would be accountable to Congress.
William Donaldson, a co-chair with fellow former SEC head Arthur Levitt of the Investors’ Working Group, told the FT the new agency should have “carte blanche to go everywhere it wants . . . to find systemically weak areas within the system”.
Letting the Fed regulate all large financial groups would detract from its focus on monetary policy and could have “serious drawbacks” given its poor record in the run-up to the crisis, the report says.
It criticised the central bank for lax bank supervision and the role its low interest rate policy played in inflating the housing bubble earlier this decade.
“[The Fed’s] credibility has been tarnished by the easy credit policies it pursued and the lax regulatory oversight that let institutions ratchet higher their balance sheet leverage and amass huge concentrations of risky, complex securitised products,” the report says.
“Other serious concerns stem from the Fed’s regulatory failures – its refusal to police mortgage underwriting or to impose suitability standards on mortgage lenders – and the heavy influence banks have on the Fed’s governance.”
Let me translate for you plebs:
“Two groups of oligarchs started an ugly squabble in public over who gets to preside over the looting of public coffers, after not being able to settle the matter in private.”
I’m rooting for the ‘populares’.
“…by an alliance including two former heads of the Securities and Exchange Commission…”
I’ve been wondering where Chrissy Cox would emerge…
Telegraph dot co dot uk
Everybody hates Goldman. Should they?
By Tracy Corrigan Last updated: July 15th, 2009
Goldman Sachs has always been the bank that rivals love to hate, but the US investment bank, which has a habit of excelling at what it does, is scaling new heights of unpopularity.
This week, its profits bounced back dramatically, months after it hovered on the brink of disaster during the financial crisis. To some, this is the result of the firm’s undoubted trading prowess and reflects its relative success in navigating the subprime crisis. To others, it is evidence that darker forces are at work. Undoubtedly, the disappearance of some competitors has helped.
When rival Lehman Brothers went bust in the Autumn (because Goldman alumnus and then US Treasury secretary Hank Paulson decided not to rescue it) and confidence in the investment banking model collapsed, both Goldman and Morgan Stanley had to turn to the US central bank to finance themselves. Now, thanks to its rapid recovery, Goldman has paid back the government funds it subsequently borrowed and so will be shelling out big bonuses this year once again: it also has a habit of being the highest-paying Wall Street firm.
On its own, with the global economy still languishing in the mess the investment banks helped to create, this does not exactly foster fondness. But there are two other issues. First, banking profitibility is bouncing back partly thanks to massive government support which pushed costs down.
The second issue is Goldman-specific. There is a growing suspicion that the tentacles of Goldman in US government and global business have given it excessive power and influence - or as Mat Taibbi writes in his article “The Great American Bubble Machine” in this month’s Rolling Stone, the bank has become “a great vampire squid wrapped around the face of humanity, relentlessly jamming its blood funnel into anything that smells like money.”
Strong stuff, but his underlying concern is valid. He argues that there is “an extremely unfortunate loophole in the system of Western democratic capitalism, which never foresaw that in a society governed passively by free markets and free elections, organized greed always defeats disorganized democracy.”
And if you think Mr Taibbi isn’t keen on Goldman, check out the GoldmanSachs666.com website run by Mike Morgan, an investment adviser who “can’t stand what Goldman Sachs has done to America”.
Does this upset the bankers at Goldman? Well, a bit. They tried to get Morgan to take down his website, though they have settled for a prominent disclaimer, and they dismissed Taibbi’s piece as “an hysterical compilation of conspiracy theories”. Goldman is, in fact, “painfully conscious of the importance in being a force for good.”
…
“…organized greed always defeats disorganized democracy.”
How many executives at GS live behind locked gates?
“…Goldman is, in fact, “painfully conscious of the importance in being a force for good.”
BWAHAHHAHAHAHHAHAHHAHHAHAHAHHHHHHHHHHHHH!!! (fpss™)
Come on Mr. Bear, laugh once in while will ya…
This week’s news stories have made smiling a challenge…
Then at least go stand on your head for five minutes while listening to George Carlin…
I’ll say what I said a few weeks ago - Goldman is the poster child, but the problem goes way beyond them. IMO it’s probably quite intentional that they’re taking the media hits that should also be going to others - e.g. JPM, Citi, BofA, etc. Not saying that GS is innocent by any stretch, but the focus on them I think is a big red herring.
IMO it’s probably quite intentional that they’re taking the media hits
So you think they will be set up to take the fall??
What will the fall look like?
Does this explain recent insider selling?
I agree that the problem is a much bigger than GS. I wonder what security is like in the GS building these days.
I’m not sure there will necessarily be a “fall”, just perhaps that their influence might wane or be curtailed.
E.g. one off-the-cuff theory might be as the IMF grows (you know it will continue) they might be less inclined to use GS and/or hire their people, due to GS’s bad reputation; whereas the same won’t be true of other institutions.
To be honest it’s all just conjecture on my part. It just seems very odd to me that all this stuff with GS is out in the open, with lots of media attention, whereas history shows that the true backroom shady dealings by the PTB don’t garner nearly this much attention. So my conjecture is that they screwed up - that the problem got out of control and is now too big to hide, but rather than allow all culpable parties to be exposed they decided to focus on a subset - GS and AIG - to minimize the damage.
GS’s ersatz “profit” is just a way to loot their own bank before their derivative exposure blows up in their face.
If their derivative exposure through AIG was considered, they are already effectively nationalized.
http://www.occ.gov/ftp/release/2009-34a.pdf
graph 5A
I suspect these numbers are due to a short term “spike” in profitability designed to ensure bonuses are paid out. I would be very surprised if this is a long term trend for Goldman.
So, with a secondary market developing for California IOUs, will they soon be securitized, and will derivatives and swaps based on them be created? Just wondering.
Who in their right mind would buy them?
Geez, let’s juice things up this morning…
Oct-o-mom or Joe the Plumber?
looking through the Lost Wages, NV apartment booklet…rents look kinda cheap…
With blazing hot summer & freezing cold winter coming soon…how long can “over-priced” houses/condo’s/hotelcondos… wait for “qualifying buyers”?
with all this un-der-employment, surely the Nat’l income median has risen…
Why hasn’t Sir Greenisspent talked much about “worker productivity” lately?
Ford out sold Toyota the last three months…any comments from the three little oinkers down South about Michigan workers making American crap?
Where’s Jeb Shrub III, and what’s he doing to make Florida shine?
Arnie, how do you like politics now?
Yeah, but what percentage of those Fords were actually made in MI?
Marvin the Martian: “Ooohhhh…you make me very angry wabbit!”
sounded like Elmer Fudd
“Ford out sold Toyota the last three months…any comments from the three little oinkers down South about Michigan workers making American crap? ”
Ford offers payment protection plan to reassure customers
by The Associated Press Tuesday March 31, 2009, 7:41 AM
DETROIT — Ford Motor Co. said today it is offering a payment protection plan to help reassure consumers who may be putting off buying a new car because of worries about losing their job.
The offer comes as auto sales have been battered by the recession and tight credit, reaching their lowest levels in 27 years. Ford’s sales declined 48 percent in February.
Ford said it will cover payments of up to $700 each month for up to a year on any new Ford, Lincoln or Mercury vehicle if consumers lose their jobs. The program runs until June 1.
Dearborn, Mich.-based Ford is also offering zero percent financing on certain Ford, Lincoln and Mercury vehicles.
Johnny Cash - Folsom Prison
A tax on beer is coming
It`s rollin round the bend
and I aint smoked a Newport since
I don`t know when
but I voted for Obama
cause I just could not see
now a tax on beer is coming
and that`s what tortures me
When I was just a baby
my momma told me son
if someone sounds like Karl Marx
you better turn and run
but I voted for Obama
cause I just could not see
now a tax on beer is coming
and that`s what tortures me
I bet Joe Bidens laughing
and smokin big cigars
Pilosis tellin GM
to make electric cars
but I voted for Obama
cause I just could not see
now a tax on beer is coming
and that`s what tortures me
Was talkin to my neighbor
said a job search made him bored
he quit payin on his mortgage
and he`s drivin a free Ford
but I voted for Obama
cause I just could not see
now a tax on beer is coming
and that`s what tortures me
I love it…
BTW, I’ve had Johnny stuck in my head all day after reading your post this AM…
Yeah -
And wait until Obama and crew pass the law that REQUIRES everyone who sells anyone booze of any sort to run your driver’s license through a tracker ID system.
It matters not if you buy using cash, credit, food stamps, whatever.
Patriot Act Part 2.
Can’t confirm it right now, but a radio report the other day said Toyota Camry’s have a greater proportion of American made parts than a Ford F-150 does.
Ford’s have a lot of Canadian and Mexican parts. Many are assembled in Mexico.
The same can be said of GMs and Chryslers.
Damn Unions!
The Volkswagen Routan is a Dodge Grand Caravan with a nose job and an upgraded suspension. I’m pretty sure there are no German parts on it.
Subprime debt’s new threat to housing
Home prices are being beaten down as bondholders unload foreclosed houses at discounts to what banks are asking for comparable properties.
http://articles.moneycentral.msn.com/Investing/Extra/subprime-debts-new-threat-to-housing.aspx
Decent article, but it is hard to believe their still calling it a Subprime problem.
I am giving my pug dog to my sister since he has been bullying my littleman for food. Very sad. I’ll be driving up to Virginia to meet her in a few weeks to make the drop. It’s weird, but that smashface snortbreather has been a big part of my life, and always a pain in the butt when we looked for apartments.
This will make finding another place when we move easier, but still, I love that l’il bastard.
I was never a big fan of cats. Girlfriend moved in with 3 of them. They grew on me after a few years and I took a particular liking to “Blue”. We’re best buds except on the mornings when he stretches and I wake up with one of his back paws in my mouth which has happened a few times.
I hate cats.
If someone breaks into your house, at least a dog can help defend and dogs are loyal…
A cat will step over your dead body and ask the murderer, “So, are you going to feed me now?”
I used to feel that way about cats until I met Blue. I’d swear he was a dog in a previous life.
Though he’s not much of a protector he does like to have his belly scratched, eats anything that hits the floor and I mean anything, and greets me at the door. I could go on.
Actually, the cat will wait for the murderer to leave and start eating your dead body.
I’m aware that my cats (rescue cats, they showed up after being dumped somewhere in the woods, starving and skinny kitties, and they had to be captured and hauled in to get spayed, and boy, THAT wasn’t fun for ANYONE. Although my thumbs eventually grew back, so that’s good.)
Anyway, I’m aware that my cats are constantly evaluating whether or not they could take me if they sneaked up on me or dropped on me out of the trees in unison. They hunt as a pack, and they probably could take me, except I’m keen and alert and aware of their wicked plans.
Not to suggest that my cats are entirely cunning, hairy, wicked, feral little fooks— although they are— but they do sometimes let me approach them if I’m eating something tasty. Then they run right up and pretend to be pets. Last month I rebuked one and told her ‘If you want a bite of this delicious cheese danish and a drink of beer then you should do some work around here, and not just recline on the deck licking your furry bo*ttom and sleeping all day.’
And you know what? The very next day I walked out the back door and discovered 2 dead little voles presented for my delight, nicely eviscerated and with the organs in a tidy lump. They were deliciously fresh, too, and slightly warm. I know this ’cause I discovered them with my bare left foot.
But a deal is a deal, so she got a cheese danish and a drink of beer.
Your cats drink BEER?
Step2me,
You need to meet the right cats:
My cat comes upstairs and meows along with us as we say prayers. Then she goes into each child’s room and snuggles them goodnight. She also goes into their room and “wakes” them up w/us in the morning.
An even more impressive story:
A friend of the family was failing quickly from liver disease but he had been quite a rugged outdoorsmen in the day and tried to do a few outdoor chores when possible. One day his wife was running the vaccuum when she noticed the kitten was going crazy running around the room. As she turned off the vac, the kitten then beelined it for the door. The cat did this repeatedly until followed, meowing intensely. The husband had fallen down and was unable to get back up on his own. The wife wouldn’t have known unless she had gone over to open the door. To boot, it was a yard frequented by several bears. The wife said she never would have known w/o the kitten.
Those are good kitty stories! Thanks!
Although if I ever stop posting for an extended period of time you will know it’s because my kitties finally managed to sneak up on me, working in concert, with a net they wove from kelp and fern fronds.
Ahhh,… a boy and his dog. With littlegal on the way, maybe this is a good move. Toddlers can be tough on dogs.
I still remember turning around in my Toyota Camry to check everyone in the back. My kids were one and three, both in their car seats and our pet chow was in the middle of the two. My one year old had been kicking him in the head.
He just looked at me w/these giant, pathetic eyes as if to say, “please make it stop”
We called him the anti-chow. My lab was nowhere near as sweet w/those kids.
I have been in the anger phase of the housing bubble stages of grief for quite a few months now, and want to move on. At what point does Main Street reach this stage (or are they already there), and what will be the societal consequences?
I for one find solace in being what joeyincalif calls an “economic anarchist”. Anger can be a useful motivator, use it wisely.
I’m pretty much in the bargaining stage. E.g. I’m hoping and praying that I can somehow help my children avoid poverty and/or repression.
Still got plenty of anger too though, I have to say. It’s hard to get away from that stage when new information/plans come to light every day. Unfortunately it’s not like the stages of death grief, when you find out once, and then can move on through the stages.
Just passed the health care plan.
So it will be like california in every state. get ready for the fun.
Speaking of health care - here’s just a sample of what we have in store for us.
Funny how medicare recipients, who already receive “socialized” medicine, don’t have a problem with this.
On the the other hand if you are younger and covered by a crappy HMO you might wait that long to see a specialist. And if you are un or underinsured you will probably never see a GP (nevermind a specialist).
Pay no attention to the recent report that said medicare will be insolvent by 2018. Let’s just expand it to cover everyone and print up the money to pay for it, or better yet, tax the *rich!
*anyone with a job, especially renters with a job
Educate yourself on this issue. Don’t fall for the fear mongering of the moneyed interests and health care czars. Your choice is not between socialized medicine or the idealized free market. It is between government bureaucrats and corporate bureaucrats. I encourage you to listen to what a former Cigna executive has to say about a government option:
http://www.pbs.org/moyers/journal/07102009/watch2.html
It is between government bureaucrats and corporate bureaucrats
BINGO
There is no free market in medicine now, only a wealth stripping layer in terms of insurance. Administration costs are somthing like 10x higher than single party payer.
Indian Health Care for all!
Meanwhile, the Commonwealth of Massachusetts is cutting back eligibility for its subsidized statewide health insurance program due to budget constraints.
Oh, btw that needs “reform” too.
Indians have very good health care. You’d be surprised. The Chippewa tribal medical plan in Mich. pays for EVERYTHING.
Indians have very good health care. You’d be surprised. The Chippewa tribal medical plan in Mich. pays for EVERYTHING.
You must be referring to that tribe that pays its members $150,000/year per capita from casino proceeds. I had a commission as a medical officer in the Indian Health Service. I am enrolled in a different Michigan tribe. I get ZERO medical benefits from them. You don’t know what you are talking about.
I happen to like my current insurance and do not want to live in a third world hell hole that doles out the bare minimum to everyone and saves the Quality care for the elite and the “right thinking”.
In fact, being a conservative/libertarian, I would be up near the top of Obama’s “do not treat” list.
Once you cede any of your liberty to oppressive government, you will never see it again. This is not about health care for the poor and uninsured, it is about control, plain and simple.
My health insurance at work will go up 39.2% in Aug. Go free market.
And you’re going to get a 39.2% improvement in service, right?
Is that really a free market if you’re only getting your insurance through your employer?
Shop around… (the results are likely to be similar, but your complaint isn’t founded on the information provided)
If I am healthy, my leaving the small companies pool will doom the unhealthy. If I am unhealthy leaving is not an option.
Same HMO plan.
I’m angry too, but seriously, what can we do about it short of burning tires in the street? I vote libertarian, but no one cares. I petition my government for redress, but Diane Feinstien sez “we’re gonna bail out the banks anyway, sucka!” I’ve put all of my savings in my local credit union, but Goldman Sachs keeps making money. I have to admit, these guys are good….
“I’m angry too, but seriously, what can we do about it short of burning tires in the street? I vote libertarian, but no one cares.”
No one cares because the press who should be highlighting the issues for the American populace against the government is a willing accomplice with the government. You need to attack the press and the businesses that support it if you expect to get your voice heard.
Dude, the press is a business. They are going to report what’s good for them, not anyone else. No amount of attacking is going to change that fundamental.
Sorry man, but that’s naive. If you look into it, you’ll find that there are very often high-level meetings, and usually fairly secretive, between the top guns of the media/business/government trio. The media/press isn’t some impartial third-party observer. They know that if they step on the wrong toes - they get slapped badly, usually in the form of having key access removed.
Yeah I know it sounds tin foil hat. It is what it is.
(FWIW - I don’t believe believe in moon landings fakes, 9/11 coverups, holocaust fakes, etc.
)
I used to work in “mass media.”
Yes packman, this is exactly what they do.
Care to expound? I’d love to hear.
(Or were you speaking tongue-in-cheek?)
“…and what will be the societal consequences?”
My vote is for self-reflection & critical thinking…but as you all know… I’m whacked!
Just try and get a job where those skills are highly valued….
————————————————
self-reflection & critical thinking
“what will be the societal consequences?”
Let’s ask the Beatles!!!
Revolution #9?
Number 9, number 9, number 9, number 9, number 9, number 9
Industrial output
Financial imbalance
Thrusting it between his shoulder blades
The Watusi
The twist
Eldorado
Take this brother, may it serve you well
Maybe it’s nothing
Aaah
Maybe it’s nothing
What? What? Oh
Maybe even then
Impervious in London
Could be difficult thing
It’s quick like rush for peace is
Because it’s so much
It was like being naked
I’ve been wondering when Main Street would wake up and realize how screwed they are and for how long they will be screwed and who did the screwing to them. I think one of the many reasons the PTB want to slow the bust is so we “come to our senses one at a time, and slowly”.
I doubt Main Street will ever reach the anger phase or any other phase, because they are not grieving.
Did they lose something they loved? What was it.. Did they lose that stucco palace that was supposed to appreciate forever and make them rich? Lost the overpriced condo they never even saw? Does one grieve over such things?
Did they even lose their own money?..or was it some lender’s money. Are they supposed to be angry that many of the banks and businesses that funded the orgy have been destroyed? .. feel sorrow that their borrowing and spending contributed to an economic meltdown?
And try as they may, there is no hiding from the fact that any perceived loss was self inflicted. Perhaps they might be angry with themselves for getting caught up in the real estate buying / investing frenzy.. took bad gambles and made bad choices.
Does one feel grief when the wild drunken revelry finally comes to an end? No.
All that’s left is the hangover.
Professor Bear,
Main Street will never understand what has happened the way you do. Much of main street doesn’t want to understand. They just want someone else to fix it so we can go back to how things were. Many of those that would like to understand have trouble discerning good info from bad.
There were no uprisings during the Great Depression of the 30s unless you want to consider the Bonus Marchers. Sometimes I think the pensioners who are ending up w/major reductions of benefits will organize but I haven’t heard a thing. We didn’t have all the social safety nets in the early GD years and yet people remained quiet; I suppose the government aid now only serves to quiet the masses further while the media keep people’s hopes up.
Anecdotally I know very few people who want to understand this. They acknowledge there’s a feeling that feels like “war on the middle class”, they acknowledge the news doesn’t sound too good, then they have another drink and mumble something about how I watch and read an inordinate amount of news (like I’m some oddity for my curiosity of how it all works)
The Great Depression helped form and give real power to the unions.
A few folks got a little, well, dead because of it.
You’re right eco. I guess I was thinking of groups of strangers uniting in protest on public property but wasn’t thinking of what happened on private property with people trying to hang onto their incomes.
I take a very Kunzlerian view on this. When the ’sheeple’ realize what a bind they are in and just how deliberate the screwing has been the results won’t be pretty. Will it devolve into a ‘blood in the streets’ scenario? Who knows? What I DO know is that there are plenty of contemporary 20th century examples of countries and populations going collectively insane and this country has more reasons than most.
How do I deal with it? One day at a time and in little steps. As others here have stated, my money is in a credit union. What few investments I have are in gold, energy and index funds. I absolutly refuse to use credit, debit cards or electronic financial transactions of any kind unless absolutly necessary.
I have also joined a CSA group (community sponsored agriculture) and what cash I do manage to spend goes towards making my house and by extension, my lifestyle, as self sufficient and sustainable as possible but I’m under no illusions what so ever that I can go “off the grid”. It’s an apealing fantasy but nothing beyond that. I have neither the means nor desire to go off the survivalist deep end.
I like to think that I’m ahead of the curve on this (the HBB has been a big part of that) and I have collected people around me who feel a lot like I do but I still feel basically helpless, terrified and furrious at the magnitude of the Shit storm bearing down on us all.
Praise the lord and pass the prozac.
The sheeple can barely operate doorknobs, let alone grasp the scope and complexity of how they were royally rogered.
They will, as always, persecute the usual scapegoats.
CSA’s are awesome! HUbby and I are in one here in San Diego, loving the fresh, yummy produce! MMMM
Are we talking California Alt-A and Option ARM Main Street or the general public including non-bubbly, non rust belt flyover Main Street? I think the view may be very different depending on perspective. I still know many people who think this recession is happening to people who’ve made “poor choices”. Therefore they feel untouchable. They’re seeing this as a windfall as they pick up cheap vehicles and cheap vacations, have no plans on moving and feel like the continuity of their income is w/o question.
Some news from Los Angeles’ West Side….
I’m only looking at the SFR market, but I know that the condo market has weakened significantly. That’s good because it will help suck demand away from those SFRs I’m looking at. I know that for sure because after looking at the Pigs on the market in my price range, I’m thinking about a townhome myself….
Wishing prices are still the norm. Most folks are listing homes at or slightly below their loan value, hoping for a short sale, or maybe bringing some of that 12 months of unpaid mortgage to the table. I’ve got a couple of alerts setup with Zip Realty for homes at $550k or less in many west side locations. Prior to this month I would get a crack house or two every once in a while. Now I am getting homes with incurable faults (on a busy street), or tiny unimproved cottages built in 1948. Here is a prime example:
http://www.redfin.com/CA/LOS-ANGELES/WALGROVE-90066/home/21676721
People looking for a half-million dollar payday so they can “take care of grandma” for a tiny house on a fairly busy street. Pity is that a house like that could be a great starter place for me an my wife. I’d be willing to put the $100k in improvements and repairs into it that it needs, but the cost basis is all wrong at 500k. Realtor didn’t know chit about the property, her only comment was “its the cheapest SFR on the west side,” expecting that to sell itself.
Bottom line is that prices are not falling on properties listed (since the “owners” have no ability to lower prices) but in the prime selling season some new properties are coming on the market undercutting existing listings. If this trend continues and the banks are ever forced to move their foreclosed or defaulted inventory when the moratorium expires in Septemebr, fall could be a very interesting time. I’m keeping my powder dry, but I did get prequalified for a loan. Pray for me =)
So many realtors seem to know so little, don’t they?
It’s as if their spouses (who might well be lawyers or doctors), make plenty of money anyway, so it really isn’t necessary to put any sweat equity into the business. Real estate was supposed to be a simple and lucrative side project…research and thought unnecessary.
Some of these realtors seem to know very much less than they think. Just saw on the news that Florida authorities are looking for a “person of interest” (gosh, I hate that term) in connection with the killing of the couple that took in all those special needs kids. Who could this person be? Why, a realtor! Guess times were hard and she was desperate. It’s shaping up to be a real “In Cold Blood” replay, but with half-dozen stupid sociopaths rather than just two.
Gotta love the realtor’s involvement, though. She was probably the brains of the outfit; successfully duped homebuyers for so long, she probably figgered she was a genius. I’m sure she has some exculpatory sob story that her lawyer will give to the press soon enough. ‘Til then, I just want to see our MSM play up her career as a realtor!
“”Pray for me =)”"
I’M PRAYING FOR YOU BRO, I’M PRAYING THAT YOU WAIT UNTIL YOU CAN BUY SOMETHING FOR $200K or less!!
I can afford a $500K house with a $200K down, but I’ve come to my senses and realized that none of those houses are worth that kind of money. I’ll wait and I’ll rent until I get what I want for what I want to pay. When I go to Trulia and see that people bought in 1998 for $350K and now want $850K it puts things in perspective.
Send it on to Dr. Housing Bubble to use as one of his Real Homes of Genius.
$710/sf… those people are on some serious meds
$710/sf… those people are on some serious meds
Pretty much par for the course in Westside LA - the cheapest I’ve seen is in the low $400 ppsf for a Meth den, and some of the stately piles in Malibu are asking $1,500 + ppsf.
Anachronist, we live in on the West Side, too. Want to get a beer someday to chit chat? We’re waiting patiently, too.
Yeah man, I could use the moral support. It seems like its starting to thaw, but soooo slooooowly.
ds_2002_1 “at” yahoo “dot” com
I wouldn’t buy anything on Walgrove - if you don’t get a small plane on your roof from being under the Santa Monica airport runway, then you have to fend off insane commuters doing 70mph round Dewey/Airport St bend.
Plus, its a long busy road with speed humps and about 3 Schools along it, meaning you have to wait for Mommy to load/unload Special Snowflake from the family BMW SUV twice a day.. the longer I’m away from Westside, the less I miss it.
I signed up for a rental in Topanga Canyon yesterday, so the pressure’s off looking to buy something, to get out of the hot as hades SFV summer…
I do feel your pain anachronist - I’ve been wating for some sanity in Westside prices for about 3 years now.
I take succour in using ZipRealty to track the prices of impossibly expensive horse properties in the Malibu Ozarks, and being mean to the tr0lls over on the Westside blogs.
A girl has to have a hobby….
Yep, I hear you. It goes through a residential neighborhood and there is no commercial on it so it *seems* quiet, but even at 12:30 PM there was quite a bit of traffic on the road, and you could hear it from inside when the door was open. Still, I’d be willing to live there and put up with the postage stamp lot .. IF the price was right. I don’t need an estate, just a decent place to live and a garage to house my all-grain brewing system. But unitl there is a reason for peope to capitulate, wishing prices will still be the norm here on the west side. I mean, its different here, you know?
This is truly insane. I thought this was a listing from 2006. Wait -in 2006 this would have been a million dollar home.
Boy oh boy, there is a lot of pain still to come if this stuff is still going on.
You’ve got to be kidding me! Half a million dollars for THAT!
What would the lot go for without the structure? Because that shack isn’t worth a dime.
My thought was you could pay maybe a buck fity for the lot and then you need another hundo to make the place liveable. New roof, new garage, serious architectural work to make the inside “work” (kitchen and bathroom are just to small for modern standards), and you would need to build on an addition. It would be a major rehab, maybe even a demo, and its a tough sell on a busy street, as speedingpullet pointed out above. They are having an open house on Sunday from 1- 5, I am thinking about setting up a lawn chair on the sidewalk, maybe bring my webber =)
If you go to the Open House, will you post a report here?
I’d love to be a fly-on-the-wall when it comes to the crazy stuff the UHS people say… according to many its still ‘different here’…
Be sure to attend the open house for free snacks. Why bring your own? Report back on attendance and atmosphere of the crowd and Realtor would ya?
Well, I posted a long (and hopefully informative) update on the housing market in west LA, but looks like it got eaten by the moderator-bot or something. Suffice to day that new listings are starting to undercut old listings, but no one is feeling any pressure to move houses as long as the banks are not being forced to get them off their balance sheets. Could get interesting as those who actually NEED to move get desperate in September, but I’m keeping my powder dry and trying to appease Mrs anachronist with a vacation.
“Could get interesting as those who actually NEED to move get desperate in September…”
The past couple of days there’s been some intersting tid bits in our local RE press about anxious sellers getting close to having a collective freakout.
Agents are advising sellers to rent not sell, and get this…”wait until next year”.
Waiting in CA in 2006 - a good idea or bad idea?
Waiting in IL in 2009 - a good idea or bad idea?
My sister lives by The Grove (Disneyesque pretend main st outdoor shopping ctr w/ trolley & farmer’s market) and I’ve never understood why her home was worth $1.2M. A 1930ish 1952 sq ft house on a small lot doesn’t warrant that kind of price. This bubble has been generous. West L A has been insanely priced.
“All we know is the current economy can’t ‘recover’ because it can’t go back to where it was before the crash. So instead of asking when the recovery will start, we should be asking when and how the new economy will begin…”
~Robert Reich
wmbz-
Great quote and so true. Robert Reich, a former Sec Of Labor, and now at UC Berkeley, has a good blog.
Wow, someone who actually gets it! I’m amazed…
This is fundamentally about the economy re-structuring. That takes time and simply cannot occur at the pace that a pause/recovery of the same structure typically does.
Get it? He advocates bringing in as many H1-Bs and immigrant workers as possible.
No one is going to like his new economy.
Just cut wages to 1/5 of what they are today. That’s the new economy. It’s already begun.
How about a real educational plan and force Americans to read, write and speak English?
Eliminate Ghetto Ebonics from our schools, demand better behavior and perfect attendance skills.
I am so angry at how we dumbed down our country.
I am so angry at how we dumbed down our country.
First we’ll have to force Congress to read (and comprehend) the bills they pass.
Part of the dumbing down comes from poorly paying our real talent. “A” students going into engineering get paid less than “C” students peddling real estate, and certainly less than “D” students in pro sports.
Many school athletic programs actually monitor grades. So I think it’s the “C” students going into pro sports and the “D” students going into real estate.
So I think it’s the “C” students going into pro sports and the “D” students going into real estate.
I think it’s the D students in both..it’s just that the sports programs help massage the Ds into Cs for the athletes.
Part of the dumbing down comes from poorly paying our real talent. “A” students going into engineering get paid less than “C” students peddling real estate, and certainly less than “D” students in pro sports.
Sure, but what ratio of students that go into sports make pro sports dollars? It’s like the world of big-company CEOs and becoming a business student — how many business wonks under the CEO at GE aren’t ever going to be CEO? Sure, the very, very top of the pyramid makes a lot of money, but your chances of actually making it to that level are very small.
Engineering is a bit flatter, as income goes. You might not be likely (well, maybe barring tech IPOs) to pull what a pro sports figure makes, but what is the *mean* income across people who pursue engineering versus the *mean* income across people who pursue sports?
How about a real educational plan and force Americans to read, write and speak English?
I wouldn’t go so far as to say “force”.
I think just mandating all government business be conducted only in English (except ESL public school classes) would do the trick.
Nice post wmbz….I am in that camp…What is the “New Normal” ?? Double digit unemployment with chronic underemployment ?? Government job is the new career choice ??
Deep. I like it!
They are deploying light rail here in Norfolk. I continue to bash it. People say I hate mass transit. I reply, NO! But Norfolk used to have trollys before and they were torn out. Why redeploy the same legacy system that was removed before? Push forward. Maglev. Elevated. Leave something better for the future generations.
I don’t think anyone wants Robert Reich’s “new” economy. Trickle up poverty and an oppressive Orwellian State, no thanks.
Just because the Fascists in the Bush/Clinton/Bush/Obama administrations and Wall Street bankers gamed the system does not mean we have to throw free market capitalism overboard. Communism/Marxism/Socialism fails everywhere it’s tried, but I guess the Masters of the Universe types feel that it has just not been implemented properly.
Sickness Care Boondoggle on Fast Track
WASHINGTON — House Democratic leaders, pledging to meet the president’s goal of health care legislation before their August break, are offering a $1.5 trillion plan that for the first time would make health care a right and a responsibility for all Americans. Left to pick up most of the tab were medical providers, employers and the wealthy.
Access to medical care is already a de facto “right.” Check in at a hospital emergency department on a Saturday night. Signs are posted everywhere saying you cannot be denied care even if you have no money and no insurance.
Now, Dr. Obama wants to make it mandatory that all Americans get sickness insurance whether they want it or not. It will be paid for partly by medical providers - presumably through a diminution of services; and employers - who must cut staff or raise prices; and the “rich” - the age-old Robin Hood method of taking from those who have and giving it to those who have not.
Be suspicious of the speed at which this is being pushed through Congress. Tell your Senator to put on the brakes until we, the people, have a chance to at least read the details of the proposal.
“Our national conversation about curbing the cost of health care is crippled by the vocabulary in which we conduct it. We must stop talking about “health care” as if it were some kind of collective public service, like fire protection, provided equally to everyone who needs it. No government can provide the same high quality body repair services to everyone. Not all doctors are equally good physicians, and not all sick persons are equally good patients.
“If we persevere in our quixotic quest for a fetishized medical equality we will sacrifice personal freedom as its price. We will become the voluntary slaves of a ‘compassionate’ government that will provide the same low quality health care to everyone.” Universal Health Care Isn’t Worth Our Freedom
Dr. Thomas Szasz became a medical doctor in 1944, but is best known in the field of psychiatry. He’s 89. The above paragraphs are from his piece today in the Wall Street Journal.
“We must stop talking about “health care” as if it were some kind of collective public service, like fire protection, provided equally to everyone who needs it.”
Agreed. It’s not about health care. First, it’s about the unavailabilty of an affordable policy. Second, it’s about insurance companies ripping off their policy holders by rejecting claims, etc.
Sure it’s about health care. It’s about impending guvmint intervention, expansion and control into a huge part of the economy. We may not like how it’s run now, but there’s no way it’ll get better being run by Uncle Sam. I’d bet my children that that “public” option drives most private companies out of business.
When you get guvmint involved my tax dollars are used to fix someone else’s affordability issue. Those dollars are better left with me so I can solve my own affordability issue.
Your health care affordability issue (or anyone else’s, don’t take it personally) is not and should not be my problem.
Deal blano. Keep your pennies. And when you turn 62, you’re on your own…. No medicare for you.
No medicare for you.
Projections are, no medicare for anybody in about 20 years. Unless Congress does something to stabilize the program.
If we persevere in our quixotic quest for a fetishized medical equality we will sacrifice personal freedom as its price. We will become the voluntary slaves of a ‘compassionate’ government that will provide the same low quality health care to everyone.” Universal Health Care Isn’t Worth Our Freedom
Now I’m all for univeral health care, but this would not guarantee medical equality. My plan would be to cover preventetive care and basic care with proven cost benefits. Then if you want other stuff you can buy a secondary insurance policy. If you want second line chemotherapy for lung cancer, or stents, or expensive blood pressure pills, pain meds ect then you get a secondary policy. I’d have the gov fund research that might allow people without secondary insurance to get unproven tx free if they had no secondary insurance. This system would slash costs. Those with expensive drugs or treatments that didn’t meet cost benefit analysis would figure a way to lower costs. Preventetive/primary care would prevent needless and expensive ER trips. This type of system is much more effecient than what we have now.
“Now, Dr. Obama wants to make it mandatory that all Americans get sickness insurance whether they want it or not.”
I’m sure there are lots of Americans that don’t want pesky health insurance.
“Universal Health Care Isn’t Worth Our Freedom”
As a Canadian with universal health care, I hate the loss of freedom that comes from being able to switch jobs without losing health insurance, or being able to go to any hospital and recieve treatment. It’s so restrictive.
Lol! Canadians have always hated freedom. Living in poverty in your cold, miserable hovels with the hard boot of the gov healthcare bureaucracy planted firmly against your necks! How you must envy us!
plus their beer tastes funny
and their bacon
that aint bacon
As such a wealthy nation we should be able to handle caring for our sick.
I’d like to see more effort on reducing the obesity, which will cause lots of future costs in terms of medical (I’m not skinny myself).
I’m afraid that while I’m at work, working to pay taxes, all the poor people will be hanging out at the hospital getting free drugs. Kind of like they do now with the ER.
“I’d like to see more effort on reducing the obesity, which will cause lots of future costs in terms of medical (I’m not skinny myself).”
You can’t make people lose weight. The govt and nonprofits and insurance companies have been breaking their asses trying to do it “nicely” through *education* and persuasion. The Ad Council has been flooding the airwaves with gentle reminders for years and I’m bloody tired of it. Just tell people how to tell if they’re overweight and what they need to do about it…and voila! Yeah right.
People already know they’re fat, need to shed it, but I think a bit of rebellion against the nags and nannies has set in as well. I don’t know what in hell anyone can do to curb the excesses of human nature in modern, comfortable circumstances.
“I don’t know what in hell anyone can do to curb the excesses of human nature in modern, comfortable circumstances.”
When I buy Life Insurance a blood sample is taken along with weight and height measurements. They screen the blood sample for pharmaceutical drugs that would indicate possible pre-existing conditions; they adjust the premiums accordingly. The same could be done for health insurance, which might convince some to adjust their lifestyle choices.
“As such a wealthy nation…”
Aren’t we buried in debt?
Debate about bailout for struggling lender CIT shows cracks on path to financial stability.
On Wednesday July 15, 2009, 8:27 am EDT
WASHINGTON (AP) — With banks repaying bailout money, credit markets beginning to flow and Goldman Sachs posting stunning profits, the financial sector would appear to be stabilizing. But CIT Group Inc., one of the nation’s largest lenders to small- and mid-sized businesses, teeters on the brink of collapse.
In meetings that recall last fall’s late-night negotiations over failing financial firms, representatives from the Treasury Department, the Federal Reserve and the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. were locked in tense meetings Tuesday about how to bail out the firm — or whether to do so at all.
The debate hinges on questions about how bad off CIT really is, and how its failure could affect about a million small businesses — from Dunkin’ Donuts franchisees to retailer Dillards Inc. — that depend on it for credit.
Corporate customers started to draw down on their credit lines Monday and Tuesday, according to a report Wednesday in The Wall Street Journal, which cited unidentified people familiar with the situation. Those people told the newspaper the drawdowns amounted to several hundred million dollars, with one number mentioned as high as $775 million.
A spokesman for New York-based CIT on Wednesday was not immediately available for comment.
I first read that as “path on crack”, it makes more sense that way.
Facebook keeps trying to get me to “friend” a “Ben Jones”. This Ben Jones has a private profile so I can’t see a picture or read a description. His friends do appear to be in the Arizona area, however.
Is it a trap? Will my life be destroyed if I take the bait? FICO lowered to zero? Clients informed that I’m not “a believer”? Will I end up being just another mounted head on Alan Greenspan’s hunting lodge wall?
I’m not sure how facebook would have even found a connection between us, other than the German documentary thing.
The German documentary thing…is that where you modeled underwear?
(BTW when I asked to see your scar, I was under the impression it was located on a lingerie part of your body.)
You know that whole thread was useless without pics…
Bink, I read bits late last night and I was really sorry to hear about your injury. It sounded horrific!
I hope you are feeling better and that you heal up quickly and perfectly, with only a rugged scar picturesquely placed to excite passing maidens.
Thanks. It’s not so bad as it sounds, really. The scar is noticeable and still a bit bloody but not ugly. That sorta thing has never really bothered me anyways.
Who is the actor with the big scar on his face? I can’t seem to remember him. Maybe he and I will form a crime fighting duo.
My post re: scar got eaten or censored maybe because I mentioned unmentionables.
So do you really model skivvies?
I’m afraid I cannot answer that question. Come to the Florida meetup (whenever that is) and find out.
Hey- It could have been worse!
telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/1583051/Man-said-wombat-rape-led-to-accent-change.html
Heartwarming story of forbidden love.
Wow. I thank you sincerely for bringing this story to my attention, slothy. Even just several minutes after reading it I can already tell it’s gonna have a small but distinct impact upon my life.
(from the article)
Police prosecutor Sergeant Chris Stringer told the court that alcohol played a large role in Cradock’s life.
Hmmm…ya think?
It’s bad enough to be raped by a wombat, but to then start speaking “Australian”- it’s too much, mate.
from the article
“I’ll retract the rape complaint from the wombat, because he’s pulled out. Apart from speaking Australian now, I’m pretty all right you know. I didn’t hurt my bum at all.”
It’s like Shakespeare. Better, really.
But I thought chicks dug men with Australian accents? Ladies, what would you prefer, a scar, or an Australian accent?
It’s like Shakespeare. Better, really.
Agreed.
I’m just sad he didn’t tell us the wombat’s name, and what it was wearing as it brutalized him, like, was it wearing a fez? Or a fedora? That’s the image that popped into my mind as I initially read the story. I thought ‘I bet the sort of wombat who molests drunken men also likely wears a fedora with a little feather in the band, and is probably named Walter*. That seems very likely to me’.
Little details like that, they mean so much.
I’m hoping to hear more from this fellow. So many sane people can get rather boring. But this guy…well. I betcha he’s never boring.
* My apologies to any Walters here on the HBB who are not deviant wombats.
LOL! That was awesome—thanks sloth!
But I thought chicks dug men with Australian accents? Ladies, what would you prefer, a scar, or an Australian accent?
How about both? You can fake the accent, Mr. Binky McMangled. Better yet, a hockey-playing scarred up guy with a fake accent!
But NO wombats included! ‘Cause those guys appear to be serious jerks.
But Bink, what did you do to get that Australian accent?
But Bink, what did you do to get that Australian accent?
Hahaha! Comical!
The wombat was wearing a hot dog. (hat tip to Big V)
Harrison Ford has a big scar on his chin.
Ooooooh, look at that. He does have one. You can call me Han Solo if you wish.
JC Rim Ream?
Wow, I get the same thing. The only connection I know of is that I made facebook friends with a couple other people on this blog.
I was thinking of starting a group called the housing bubble blog on facebook, but figured really Ben Jones should do it? I didn’t want to bogart the nachos, but think it would be fun.
I think you should. ‘Sweeping Zombie’, or else ‘Changing Banks’ —I get her names mixed up—was thinking of doing the same thing awhile ago. And there should be a special section for wombats, of course.
I’m not sure how facebook would have even found a connection between us
Facebook somehow found a connection between me and a girl I went on *one* date with (and never heard from her again..sigh) back in Austin. NO clue how that came to be….they’re up to something sketchy I think.
maybe she is
If Ben is in you google or yahoo mail contacts he would show up as a suggestion. I get a couple of HBBers that show up occasionally because I collect emails addresses when posted. (In case I want to try to arrange a meet up when I’m on travel)
A study just came out about Aspen and resort towns and the recession:
http://www.postindependent.com/article/20090715/VALLEYNEWS/907149988/1074
Most recessions hit at the base of the population and sometimes trickle up to the wealthy. This recession struck the rich harder, quicker. Wealthy travelers who visit or live part-time at high-end resorts like Aspen were at “ground zero” of the recession, Frick said. As a result, he sees the real estate market eroding further. The number of real estate transactions has dropped in many western mountain resorts, but sales prices are generally hanging tough. He believes that will change.
“Prices will follow,” Frick said. “We’re hardly there yet.”
But Frick believes the recession and its aftermath will be more cataclysmic for destination resorts, despite Baby Boomers. He doesn’t foresee a strong revival of traditional tourism. Participation in virtually all “skill sports,” such as downhill skiing, is declining among younger populations, he said. And as Baby Boomers age, they are leaving the sport. Resorts will settle to a new level of business, Frick said, and it will likely be “painful.”
The aging of the Baby Boomers also has implications on the real estate market in mountain resorts. Living at high altitude appeals to younger retirees in their late 50s and 60s, Frick said. But as people age and face medical issues, high elevation resorts lose their appeal for many people.
Both Frick and Westkott stressed that this recession is plowing up so much new ground that no one can forecast the effects with any certainty.
Maybe someday the worker bees won’t have to live so far down valley that they call Glenwood Springs home ’cause it’s all they can afford.
Glenwood? Try Silt, Rifle, even Grand Junction. Glenwood’s too expensive now unless you live like rats.
What’s worse, snowboarders just don’t go for the foo-foo resort scene that the skiers seem to crave.
Oh, one more thing: Former President Ford and his wife had a place in Vail for many years. But they had to give it up when Mr. Ford started having breathing problems.
Participation in virtually all “skill sports,” such as downhill skiing, is declining among younger populations, he said.
Perhaps if they didn’t charge $70 or so for a day ticket they might see more “participation”.
The high cost is one factor that has kept our family off the slopes.
Exactly!
The costs associated with any decent resort, coupled with the 60+ hour/week jobs required to keep up with the other hamsters sharing the wheel have made it difficult for younger people to get good enough at it to want to make it a priority. It sucks when you can only go to a decent resort maybe once a year and spend the first two days re-learning what you forgot over the past 51 weeks. Unless you live next to a ski slope it’s hard to get good at it.
There’s a reason they’re called ski bums - work 2 jobs so you can ski and live at the resort and you’re still dirt poor.
I guess snowboarding isn’t a ’skill’ sport
Snowboarding is definitely easier on the knees
Thats becoming an issue as I get into my 40’s
You nailed it Kim.
“But as people age and face medical issues, high elevation resorts lose their appeal for many people.”
We’re not at high elevation here (~3500) but the area has been drawing a lot of retirees who’ve always wanted to live out in the woods or on a mtn somewhere. Then the health issues kick in and they realize they’re better off in town. If you want to live far away you’d better do it when you’re young, and have a plan to earn a living.
I see this happening in Colorado. The problem, if you want to call it that, is that the retirees in their late 50s and early 60s, make such good freinds in their wine clubs, fishing groups, etc. that it is difficult for them to uproot yet again when life gets too difficult in their remote, high elevation McCabins, even with weekly Praxair visits. Where do you go? Back to Connecticut suburb you left 15 years ago? None of your friends is there anymore.
My criteria for a place to retire to included close proximity to one or more major hospitals. I live out in the country but am a short 4 mile drive to an emergency room.
Bloomberg
Paulson told Lewis on Dec. 21 that backing out of the deal “would show a colossal lack of judgment and would jeopardize Bank of America, Merrill Lynch, and the financial system,” according to the testimony. Paulson confirmed he had told Lewis the Fed might remove management and the board of the Charlotte, North Carolina-based bank if they failed to complete the takeover of New York-based Merrill Lynch.
Next question
Did you tell him not to reveal the problems/bonus payments at Merrill to share holders?
Our country is run by something pretty close to the Mafia
You say Merrill share holders don’t know about it’s problems? Don’t know about bonuses? Well, how did you find out about the problems?
As for executive pay, i’m pretty sure all that’s clearly spelled out in the prospectus.
Risk turns some people off.. others can’t get enough of it.
“Our country is run by something pretty close to the Mafia”
I would agree, except IMO the Mafia is far more honest in their intentions, so you know where you stand. The bankster boyz rob any and everyone while lying straight to their face, and if they break a law or rule, they just change them.
Every once in a while they will throw out a sacrificial lamb, to appease the masses.
Plus the Mafia doesn’t really force everyone to use their services.
they’ll “strongly encourage” it though
Somebody held a gun to J6P’s head and forced him to sign the loan docs?
Debt is a choice.
Interesting developments over here near Seattle.
The lease on my apartment, between Bellevue and Redmond, runs out end of August. 20 Days notice seems to be the law/code in WA, so I decided I needed to do some comparison shopping.
I work in downtown Bellevue, where the bubble is still playing out. A few condo buildings race to construction completion, while others shift to apartments. There are wishing prices for rents as high as $5K/month for 1000 sq/ft apts.
So two days ago, I began my plan of looking at one new place a day. I stopped in at the first apartment complex down the road from mine. Prices the same to a little higher, but slight better per sq ft.
Yesterday, as I leave for work, I find a notice tacked on my door. My apartment complex wants me to renew. And if I do it in the next 10 days, they’ll drop my rent 12%. And they’ll throw in job-loss protections - if I lose my job/income, I can end the lease without penalties.
Interesting, Interesting, Interesting…
I’ve lived in a number of different apartment complexes, over the last 25 years, and this is the first time I’ve ever experienced the opening salvo in a renewal situation be a decrease.
But how can this possibly be? We’re ‘different’ here! Everyone knows that!
HAHAHAHAAHAHA!
An earlier post of mine didn’t show up—my mom and sister were out here visiting from Utarr, until yesterday, and my mom remarked several times about how many ‘for sale’ signs there are to be seen sprinkled around here in Thurston County. When she visited 2 years ago they were mighty scarce. Last year there were more. And now? She’s right, we’s just busting out in ‘For sale’ signs.
Here, let me do it again:
HAHAHAHAHAHAAHAHA!
DeepInTheHeartOf,
I had forgotten that you had moved up here shortly before me (I got sidetracked with that whole moving thing). I’ve been going to meetup gatherings with other ex-Texans (as in the state, not UT folks) in the area….you should join us some time.
An HBB meetup would be fun, and I could use an excuse to get out.
Where and when?
Ahh, not HBB gatherings sadly. Just random folks who are from Texas. Still a good group, but not a “doom and gloom” gathering
My plan:
Start contacting RE agents and mortgage brokers toward end of summer to see if they have any clients with vacant homes that simply want someone to look after the property => $0 or for very little rent.
Those clients could be Richie Rich or they could be banks.
I almost got one when I was last looking but just missed…
That’s a good plan! Let us know how it goes.
Bloomberg
Yields over Treasuries on the top classes of commercial- mortgage bonds shrank as low as 4.95 percentage points in late May, from 8.68 percentage points at the start of the year, Morgan Stanley data show. Spreads ended last week at 6.91 percentage points, still more than twice as wide as a year earlier.
“While many attribute” the renewed slump in asset prices “to an increase in risk aversion, it might be better described as a lack of confidence in forecasts for resurgent economic expansion,” Chris Ahrens, the Stamford, Connecticut-based head of interest-rate strategy at UBS Securities LLC, wrote in a note to clients on July 8.
“Spreads ended last week at 6.91 percentage points, still more than twice as wide as a year earlier.”
Spreads may be more than twice as wide, but they are still massively under-pricing the risk IMHO.
FWIW
For three days straight WBBR has had commentary from various analysts (not the Kudlow type liars) where the common thread was housing. And all of them say the price declines haven’t even be in many areas. The only possible bottom suggested was FL.
People are getting it finally.
An MSNBC story on the backlash in Congress on insufficiently fraudulant appraisals.
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/31912372/ns/business-real_estate/
“Less than three months after new rules for home appraisers kicked in, the real estate industry is in uproar. Realtors, homebuilders, mortgage brokers and the appraisal industry itself all agree the rules are causing problems. Some are backing a bill in Congress to kill them.”
Evidently, it’s getting harder for older generations to force younger generations to overpay, with post-bailout costs shifted to them a second time through federal debt.
“This thing is not only preventing the housing market from recovering, it’s destroying the housing market,” said Marc Savitt, president of the National Association of Mortgage Brokers.
Sure, things were great three months ago.
So now we know who butters the bread of whoever is the head of the appraisal trade association and why appraisals were bunk to begin with and why the extortion of appraisers was allowed.
Oh my, my.
NRF Calls CIT Group Too Large to Fail, Asks Obama Administration to Provide Assistance. Businesswire
As of 1:14 PM ET 7/15/09
The National Retail Federation today asked the Obama Administration to provide government assistance to CIT Group Inc., saying failure of the major lender could have severe consequences for the retail industry and the nation’s economy.
“If the criterion for whether a financial institution should receive government assistance is whether it is ‘too large to fail,’ CIT is most certainly too important to the retail industry to be allowed to fail, and the retail industry is too important to the economy to be placed under additional stress,” NRF President and CEO Tracy Mullin said. “A failure of CIT would impact thousands of retailers and, consequently, the consumer spending that makes up two-thirds of our nation’s economy. That cannot be allowed to happen at a time when retailers are already struggling to survive the national recession.”
Mullin comments came in a letter to Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner and Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation Chairwoman Sheila Bair. CIT has applied to participate in the FDIC’s Temporary Liquidity Guarantee Program and said this week it is also pursuing other liquidity solutions.
Hint to NRF:
People are not spending less because there aren’t enough stores.
Damn good analogy!
edgewaterjohn, I don’t see that anywhere on my plan-o-gram. Are you sure?
I have an idea, why not ‘free’ everything for everybody! No worries debt doesn’t need to be paid, just ask the fed gubmint.
Poor in Colorado may get free phones
TracFone Wireless wants to give cellphones to Coloradans who receive public assistance.
By David Migoya
The Denver Post
Posted: 07/15/2009 01:00:00 AM MDT
Thousands of low-income Coloradans reliant on public assistance could get a free cellphone under a plan before the state Public Utilities Commission.
If approved, the plan by TracFone Wireless in Miami would make Colorado the 17th state it has settled into with free cell service for the indigent, a form of wireless welfare that proponents say taps into one of the last untapped markets for the telecom technology.
“Our hope is to have it up and running by September,” said Jose Fuentes, TracFone’s director of government relations. “Historically, it’s a very underutilized service, and we’d like that to change.”
The program is a twist on Lifeline, a long-standing federal subsidy that provides low-income families with a break on their land-line telephone bill in order to ensure emergency 911 service.
In Colorado, it’s called LITAP — the Low Income Telephone Assistance Program — and is available to anyone receiving aid from any of six welfare funds: Colorado Works Assistance (TANF), Supplemental Security Income, LEAP, Aid to Needy Disabled, the Old Age Pension Fund and Aid to the Blind.
Statewide, about 65 percent of those eligible participated in Lifeline last year.
The money — more than $800 million in subsidies were paid last year for low-income phone service across the country — comes from the Universal Service Fund, a tax on all telephone lines. Of that amount, Coloradans received nearly $3.2 million in low-income subsidies.
TracFone’s subsidized program, called Safelink Wireless, gives users at least 68 minutes of free cell service each month — in Colorado, it would be 83 minutes — and unlimited access to 911 service even if the minutes are used up.
I have never seen a poor person without a cell phone and cigarettes.
Priorities man, hustlin runnin nbahz ,dealin weed gotta have da SELL phone.
oh and smokin da cigs are cheapa den da ganja….. dats 4 spezil okasionz
u shood B a po-et, dj
Any cellphone provides 911 service. It’s a requirement. Matter of fact, that is the only number I dial on my Jitterbug cellphone.
I got the phone from my father, who’s too hard of hearing to use it. I can use it with my good ear (my left ear), and even then, it can be a bit of a challenge.
Here’s hoping for cellphone technology that’s more useful to those of us with hearing loss.
Slim I guess i am a lucky one, all the years of DJ loud music, and my hearing is better then my GF.
But then i used a lot of common sense, i only turned up the headphones when i really needed to mix a song then right back down, the monitors were always at a reasonable level….so you never at to YELL at me to get my attention, like so many other dj do.
I guess it was my dj training too I did lots of older peoples parties when i was young, so i never needed to Crank it to 11. And when i did i had the speakers as far away from me as possible. Yes I did have a background in sound/ live music
————–
hearing loss.
Good for you aNYCdj! I hate walking into a place and it’s cranked to 11! “For what?” I have to ask.
Even worse, it’s usually on a crappy PA. Yeah, that makes it sound so much better!
Well, I’m all mopey because my mommy and sister went back to Utarr. But you know what would cheer me up? If someone were to use ‘chthonic’ in casual conversation here in bits, that’s what. Also I’d like to hear drumminj explain this post:
Libertarians just take a different tact. Rather than through regulation, they’d rely on private property rights (among other things) to address the pollution issue.
Yay! I’m soooo happy there’s ‘other things’! I can’t wait to hear them!
But not until I’ve had a chance to stuff my lungs back down my throat—they popped out with all the laughing from the first time I read “they’d rely on private property rights to address the pollution issue.”
Oh, yeah, and my mom marveled several times over how many ‘for sale’ signs there were out here on Steamboat Point. Yes, the Lying Plastic Mushrooms of Realtards were sprouted up thickly at every single road junction. There were almost none of them to be seen when she last visited me here, but times have changed. Against allllll expectation we’re NOT ‘different here’.
HAHAHAHAAHAHA!
Yes, the Lying Plastic Mushrooms of Realtards were sprouted up thickly at every single road junction.
Why, why, why you gotta disparage both fungi and man-made polymers in one fell swoop?
I know you’re mopey and all, but I expected a more fungi-positive attitude from you …
Sometimes you’re the salt of chthonic Olygal. Others time I gotta wonder.
The Genius of Goldman?
July 14th, 2009 ·Politics, Money and Markets
The Genius of Goldman?
What’s up with the mainstream media acolytes who keep
aluding to the genius of Goldman Sachs?
What genius?
If it wasn’t for their former CEO Hank Paulson bankrupting
their competition (Bear and Lehman) and then extorting
Congress behind closed doors under the threat of martial law,
they wouldn’t even be in business today.
Does having your former CEO being able to choose who among
your competitors lives, or dies, make you a genius?
Does having your former CEO bail you out via the backdoor
of AIG, make you a genius?
Does running the latest shadow-government version of
INSLAW/PTECH/PROMIS software and front running the market
(not mention their own clients) as the defacto trading arm
of the Plunge Protection Team make you a genius?
Does stuffing profits offshore and only paying a 1% income tax
rate, after being bailed out by taxpayers who pay 20-30-40
times that, make you a genius?
Was former Goldman Chairman and NY Fed head Stephen Friedman a
genius, or just another front running, inside trader?
Since when does front running & shearing the sheep make one a genius?
Goldman is no more a genius than is the IRS.
One robs you blind under the protection of the law of the land,
and the other robs you blind while operating outside of it.
SliderOnTheBlack
dang.. GS stock is now up 25% since last April.. I smelled it coming and just KNEW I shoulda bought some.. damn damn damn..
Oops.. i didn’t mean that! Goldman Sachs is pure e-v-i-l, and my profit would be equally evil! Filthy blood money! I’d be an accessory to their immorality!
I will only invest in kinder, gentler companies.. the ones that play nice.. the one’s that aren’t so money hungry. I’ll do my part in making the world a better place.
They pulled off the greatest coup d’etat of all times didn’t they? Took over a superpower and didn’t even fire a shot.
That takes kidneys!
The Rothchild tentacles again. They own Reuters who in turn own the Associated Press. Did you think not ? Paulsen should be in jail and occupying an upper bunk with Bubba.
Where are the offers to be found on homes selling for $265,000 or so? The median SFR list price on the MLS for our zip code (92127) remains stuck high in the sky, at $1,192,500.
Southern California median home sales price surges in June
The increase to $265,000 reflects a recent trend of higher-priced properties taking a greater market share.
By Peter Y. Hong
10:01 AM PDT, July 15, 2009
Southern California’s median home sales price jumped to $265,000 in June, the first substantial increase since the housing market collapsed, and the total number of sales rose to the highest level in 30 months, a San Diego real estate information service reported today.
[An earlier version of this story said that the gain in the Southern California median home sale price was the largest in 30 months. It was the total number of sales that reached a 30-month high.]
The median home sales price — the point at which half the homes sold for more and half for less — now appears to have stopped a decline that began in 2007. The current price is down to what it was seven years ago and is 48% below the peak price of $505,000 two years ago, according to MDA DataQuick.
The median home price had hovered around $250,000 for five months before June’s 7% increase over May’s $249,000 median price.
…
The local MSM is making a similar claim in Denver: rising median prices.
Seemed obvious to me that we would see this on the way down.
Foreclosures moving into nicer neighborhoods (e.g. more option-A and prime mortgages instead of subprime mortgages) where the stronger hands take longer to fold would clearly suggest rising median prices.
It means we’re making progress with diminishing denial in nicer ‘hoods. It does not mean we’re anywhere near done.
Good point. I’ve tried (in vain) to make the argument that just because the median is going up M-o-M, it doesn’t mean that EVERY single house that sold DIDN’T lose value.
Who says shadow inventory isn’t a good strategy? …so far.
Obama to Change His Tune: Get Ready For A Second Stimulus, Shilling Says
Posted Jul 15, 2009 12:37pm EDT by Peter Gorenstein in Investing, Recession
There was a great clamor last week for a second Federal stimulus - because the first one wasn’t working. President Obama threw cold water on that idea over the weekend, when he rejected calls for a second stimulus and suggested that we need to be patient and give the first stimulus time to work.
Well, President Obama will soon be changing his tune, says our guest Gary Shilling.
By the third or fourth quarter, Gary says, the government will launch a second stimulus. Next year is an election year, and despite ballooning deficits, politicians won’t sit idly by and watch themselves not get re-elected because the economy has failed to recover.
The second stimulus will finally trigger an economic recovery…but it won’t happen until next year.
In the meantime, Gary thinks, the stock market will crash again, with the S&P dropping 35% to 600.
I know we’ve talked about increased incidents of violence, robberies, etc, with the economic times…
Just got stopped by a police officer while walking my dog. Apparently a “tall, jamaican-looking dude” just robbed the bank a block away.
I tell ya, these people are doing it wrong. Clearly the best way to rob a bank is to buy a house, cash-out refi, and go into default. Geez!
these people are doing it wrong. Clearly the best way to rob a bank is to buy a house, cash-out refi, and go into default. Geez!
Wrong the best way to rob a bank is to become the CEO, gamble recklessly and skim profits until the bank collapses or is bailed out by the gov.
YA but that takes a criminal mind…most bank robbers are clueless that’s why they get caught.
The amateurs go to jail, the pros become CEOs.
Did you ask him if a “Tall, jamacian looking dude walking a dog” robbed the bank?
On the other side of the coin, the rental house my wife and I have been living in for about 2 and a half years is in a neighborhood with a serious uptick in crime. 2 years of nothing, in the last 6 months we’ve had her car broken into twice, and 5 houses have had daylight robberies.
It might be time to change our plans from “Rent this house until we buy” to “go rent in a better neighborhood” and at the same time hopefully manage to reset my wife’s nesting instinct by a year.
Puck, SFBubble, get out now before something worse happens.
Currently looking into that exact plan.
with a briefcase!
“Best way to rob a bank is to own a bank.”
-William K. Black, former Bank Regulator during the S&L scandal
best quote yet
FINANCIAL CRISIS
U.S. toxic asset plan draws criticism
The Obama administration is moving forward with its financing program to take the complex securities off banks’ balance sheets, but critics say there is no need for it now.
July 15, 2009
Reporting from Washington — Despite evidence that banks are regaining their health, the Treasury Department is pressing forward with a highly controversial program to help finance purchases of toxic assets that were at the heart of the nation’s plunge into economic chaos last year.
Treasury officials say the program is still needed because the assets — complex securities on the balance sheets of banks that have virtually no market to trade in because they are so difficult to value — still pose a threat.
“The outcry from those in need of loans is substantial,” said Lee Sachs, special advisor to Treasury Secretary Timothy F. Geithner. “We need to keep taking steps to help regenerate credit creation in this country.
But some outside critics say the government has moved so slowly to address the toxic assets that the problem is largely fixing itself and that the program’s design from the very beginning was so complex that it was bound to fail.
Indeed, President Obama said in a televised interview Tuesday that banks have recovered much more quickly than he expected. Investment bank giant Goldman Sachs & Co. posted a stunning $3.4-billion second-quarter profit Tuesday, and share prices of many banks have jumped in the last week.
The program to buy the toxic assets was unveiled by the Obama administration in March, describing it as a program of as much as $1 trillion to sop up mortgage-backed securities that were hobbling the banking system.
TTT makes it clear:
“We need to keep taking steps to help regenerate credit creation…” = debt pushing.
+1
Two things that really bug me:
1. “Credit” as a euphemism for “debt”
2. The assumption that credit = liquidity, i.e. without credit the economy comes to a stop.
People seem to forget how the industrial revolution of the late 1800’s happened when even debt was about 1/100th of what it is now, relative to production.
People seem to forget how the industrial revolution of the late 1800’s happened when even debt was about 1/100th of what it is now, relative to production.
I think most people have forgotten that there *was* an industrial revolution. Many simply assume things have “always been this way”, and don’t think back to how it used to be, and how we got to where we are…
Treasury officials say the program is still needed because the assets — complex securities on the balance sheets of banks that have virtually no market to trade in because
they are so difficult to valueno one wants to admit they are worth less than used tampons — still pose a threat.Hey, wait a minute. You just insulted used, oh, never mind, those things really aren’t worth anything.
Hey Slim,
In case you didn’t see it last night I replied to your question about the sign counting how many cars being made by GM. You were right…… I-75 at I-94 just north of downtown.
I disagree. My dog thinks they’re a tasty treat. That has to confer some value…
Ack. Gross out factor. You made me shiver.
Ack. Gross out factor. You made me shiver.
Golly! Me, too. And I even have a uterus.
Hey OG,
Welcome back to cyber land after being gone to visit with mom and sister.
In the right frame of mind, I love visits with my family for the entertainment factor. And they wonder why I never produced offspring.
And they wonder why I never produced offspring.*
Oh, no! Did you misplace your uterus? I understand those things are invaluable in the production of offspring.
But seriously, thanks for your welcome back. It was a wonderful visit and I enjoyed it very much. There was much kayaking, at least the first 3 days, and then it got too choppy out there, and much enjoyable gossip, and my mom took lots of naps under many bright blankets, and I lured her with a puzzle—she’s helpless before puzzles—and me’n my sister had some cook-offs with lots of clanging pots and shouted instructions and then massive gorging…
I was pretty glum when I dropped them off. I thought, ‘I want my mommy! I want my sister!’
But there’s no help for it. Me and Utarr don’t get along, and that’s all there is to it.
* You’re entirely positive about that, are you?
Ack. Gross out factor. You made me shiver.
Imagine the horror of coming home and finding your dog has pulled your girlfriend’s used tampon out of the trash and chowed down. And then have it a regular occurrence such that you end up having a discussion with her about it….
There are just some things men weren’t meant to clean up. I think that’s one of them. The other one is whatever one of my foster dogs did on the wool rug one day. I’m still not sure what part of its body it came out of…
How’d that discussion go?
How’d that discussion go?
Needless to say she was mortified. We bought a trashcan with a lid for the bathroom shortly after that.
While I’m telling stories, I should tell you all about the time she and I were sitting on the couch together. All of a sudden I felt a rumble/vibration in the cushion. I look over at her and give her kind of a dirty/inquisitive look. She blurts out “Oh my god, you felt that?!”.
(We had been living together for about 6 months at that point, so it wasn’t the first time, but I still get a laugh out of that memory)
Oh gawd, drumminj you got me rolling around, arms folded, hands at my sides, and convulsing with laughter! Or is it convulsive crying since my eye’s are watering also?
Oly, I have different equipment than you, but don’t plan on using it to reproduce in spite of the fact it probably still works. If I had kids now I’d be in my early 60’s sending the first one to college. No Thanks!
TMI
If I had kids now I’d be in my early 60’s sending the first one to college.
Oh, being all responsible and stuff, huh?
You must have missed the news on Huffington and CNN and everywhere else today about how the worlds oldest mom—gave birth at 66 or something–just died in Spain.
Leaving twin toddlers behind for someone else to take care of.
…Ummm. Hopefully they do a good job…?
Giving birth at 66 eh? That’s a strong desire to reproducel.
Was she Mormon or something? JK…..might have been Catholic.
reproducel = reproduce
shesh. See…God’s punishing me for my comment.
No Surprise here…
DOW JONES NEWSWIRES
CIT Group Inc. (CIT) will receive a U.S. government aid package in the next 24 hours, Fox Business reported Wednesday, citing a Reuters report. Trading of CIT shares was halted Wednesday. CIT has faced a liquidity crisis this week as its corporate customers drew down hundreds of millions of dollars from their credit lines.
From CNN:
By Colin Barr, senior writer
Last Updated: July 15, 2009: 6:42 PM ET
NEW YORK (Fortune) — Cash-starved small business lender CIT Group said Wednesday evening that it has been told it won’t be getting a government bailout anytime soon.
Or not…
Refusing bailout for CIT, gov’t draws line in sand
WASHINGTON — The Obama administration drew a line in the sand on financial bailouts Wednesday by denying emergency aid to CIT Group Inc., a struggling commercial lender on the brink of bankruptcy.
http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5hh6f-9zEFWK1L8VmSuTpWV4aig_wD99F7GG00
very interesting lecture by Orlov about the similarities between the US and Soviet U and collapse:
http://www.vimeo.com/5592536
Interesting lecture. Some good ideas. Live closer together, be dependable, and depend on each other. Grow food in your yard, not lawns. Stop thinking of wealth as money. Be self sufficient. Wealth is your creativity and ability. Call out our leaders for the liars they are.
A couple of things I objected to. He mentioned several times hunting or gathering food. If everyone starts hunting and gathering we’ll wipe out our wildlife and natural fauna right quick. He didn’t seem to have a good argument for abolishing guns and disarming the population.
He may be right in that we may be in for a pending collapse, but sorry, but that dude’s wacko. Most of his comparisons were… bizarre. Way off base.
Victoria’s Secret created by slaves in the U.S.?
Presenting U.S. prisons as massacres, and a way to get rid of minority groups - on par with the Gulags?
Comparison of “runaway militarism” might be appropriate, but not close in scale. The USSR invested about 14% of their GDP in the military, whereas the U.S. is 4-5% - even now in the midst of Iraq and Afghanistan
I think he’s right on the war models - expensive war machines being outmoded by lightly-funded insurgencies; and this indeed may be our downfall.
But make no mistake about it - the ex-Soviet Union was far, far worse off before its fall than the U.S. is now. It was far more physically oppressive, and as such much more open to internal insurgencies.
That’s about as far as I got - not really worth my time to listen to the whole thing.
Thank Heavens the stock market is going up again! This offers definitive proof that the recovery is underway, happy days are here again, etc., no?
Wall Street Journal
* JULY 15, 2009, 3:29 P.M. ET
US Stocks Paced Higher By Intel, Credit Card Companies
By Peter A. McKay and Geoffrey Rogow
Technology and financial stocks led a sharp rally Wednesday as an upbeat outlook from Intel signaled strong spending on computers and other electronics throughout the economy, while earnings-related hopes lifted bank shares.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average jumped 248 points, or 3%, to 8608, helped by a 7.9% gain to $18.05 in component Intel. Following Tuesday’s close, the chip giant posted a net loss for the second-quarter, hurt by a fine imposed by the European Union. But Intel’s adjusted results exceeded analysts’ expectations, and it issued its first formal outlook in two quarters, saying it expects strong revenue in 2009’s third period.
I’m still glad I unloaded my Intel stock two years ago at $26.
“This offers definitive proof that the recovery is underway, happy days are here again, etc., no”?
Yep… No is correct.
I have been a broker for almost 30 years (missed out on the boom, doing other stuff.) Am now working on selling out a small developed condo in SW FL (at a 75-80% discount off peak.) Just got a call from a FM appraiser looking to undercut real appraised value by $10,000 (on a $49,000 unit) who when I offered them 7 closed recent sales treated me like dirt and preffers to use one sale to god knows who (many may have offered but it seeems the lowest bid bought.) If this is how its going taxpayer money is screwed, this person was absolutley nasty and they will do everything in their power to make this crisis worse (beleive me I think lower prices are a great thing but to misrepresent them is quite another.)
If he offered you a real honest-to-goodness comp, what makes that a pool comp? You _should_ have to make a case for why your comps are better than the one offered.
pool ==> poor
Betcha Realtors were not complaining on the way up when appraisers selected the highest most recent sale to base the value on. Ok, seems reasonable in an up market. So, wouldn’t it seem reasonable in down market that you use the most recent LOWEST comp?
It doesn’t sound like a misrepresentation to me. Just reality. Good news from a potential buyers perspective.
BTW….individual appraisers don’t have the power to make this crisis worse. That job is reserved for the US Government.
Just have your buyer bring more cash to the closing. Oh, sorry, I forgot that the buyer of today don’t have any cash, they are using the tax credit as their down payment.
In a large city weird stuff is always happening, every single day. But I simply cannot recall a spate of news similar to what we’ve seen recently.
Today’s example:
A 30-year-old Country Club Hills man fatally shot himself on an I-80 overpass in south suburban Tinley Park this morning, according to the medical examiner’s office.
Tinley Park police responded to reports by several citizens that there was a man with a gun on the bridge of South 80th Avenue over Interstate 80 about 10:30 a.m., according to police.
Was there a degenerate wombat involved? And was the wombat wearing a fedora with a little feather in the band? ‘Cause I’m beginning to suspect a vast conspiracy of evil here.
Chthonic forces at work…..
Thank you!
Leave Cthulu out of this….
Cthulhu fhtagn!
gesundheit !
Oh!
*faints off chair with joy! *
Rock Band Names
The following are a list of (supposedly) real rock bands’ names.
Biff Hitler and the Violent Mood Swings
The Band Formerly Known As Sausage
Band Over
Bulimia Banquet
Buster Hymen & the Penetrators
Cap’n Crunch and the Cereal Killers
Cindy Brady’s Lisp
The Dead Sea Squirrels
Dicky Retardo
Drunks With Guns
Edith Head
Elvis Hitler
Honest Bob and the Factory to Dealer Incentives
Janitors Against Apartheid
Jehovah’s Waitresses
Jehovah’s Witness Protection Program
Jesus Chrysler Supercar
Jesus Manson and the Starvation Army
JFKFC
Kerrigan’s Knees
My Dog Has Hitler’s Brain
Nervous Christians and the Lions
Norman Bates and the Shower Heads
Not Drowning, Waving
Purple Headed Love Warriors
Raging Pimps of Doom
Reserectum
Screaming Headless Torsos
Skeptic Tank
Stiff Richards
Swingin’ Johnsons
They Tried To Frame OJ
Tracy & the Hindenburg Ground Crew
Uncle Dickie’s Shameless Quickies
oops this was for ATE-UP below.
Oh! Thank you!
*faints off chair with joy, again *
I most particularly liked ‘Uncle Dickie’s Shameless Quickies’ and then the ‘Nervous Christians and the Lions’.
You know what? Sometimes it’s okay to be a human. We have our good moments, for sure.
they were better when they were “Sausage”
I’m visualizing a picture…
I’ve found my new calling, I’m going to be a Disinvestment Advisor.
I’ll tell people how to get OUT of their losing investments in housing and the stock market, how to reinvest, how to think of wealth as NOT being money, but rather things like other people, barter, being able to take care of yourself, connections, skills, etc.
“Rich people need to re-engage with humanity on a non-financial level before the opportunity for doing that is gone.” Dmitri Orlov (see my post above for his lecture)
Yes, I watched the 1 hour lecture. Some good ideas. See my above reply which was delayed quite a while.
My parents could use a Disinvestment Advisor. They are still believers. Believe their BofA stock will come back, believe their house is still worth $XXX. So on, and so on. A bounce is around the corner just in time for them to retire in 4 years or so. Yuck.
There are some who think there is
something underhanded and un-American about how Goldman does
business. Making billions trading bonds? It is almost as if they knew better
than anyone else what the feds would do next. Maybe they do.
The DR Australia’s Dan Denning offers his two cents on the subject:
“We’d suggest that whatever Goldman did to goose earnings is probably
not going to be possible for the rest of corporate America.” Furthermore,
Denning points out, most other American financial institutions are continuing
to play “hide the bad asset.”
“A New York Times story suggests that government capital injections and loan
guarantees, along with new equity offerings, have allowed banks to evade the
inevitable consequences of the popped credit bubble.
“‘The capital provided by the government through TARP, etc. has allowed the
banks to continue holding deteriorated assets at values far in excess of their
true market value,’ says Daniel Alpert of Westwood Capital in a note to
clients, according to the Times. ‘It is unrealistic to believe that home or
commercial real estate values are destined to recover any meaningful portion
of bubble-era pricing.’
“This means all the new equity raised by banks after the stress-tests has
merely papered over capital adequacy and solvency issues for now,” Denning
continues. “The banks have simply refused to revalue loans on their books
and continue to carry them at unrealistically high valuations. If they sold
them, they’d get a lot less for them, forcing them to raise more capital (or
wiping out their capital and revealing them to be insolvent)…
“The default and foreclosure data coming out of the US housing market
suggest the banks are kidding themselves, or misleading shareholders, or
both!” says Denning. “It’s the sort of calculated mistruth that can cause a
short-term crisis to last years and years. The correction is postponed through
phony accounting. It leads to an ‘Ushinawareta Junene,’ or ‘lost decade,’ as
the Japanese say.”
“Dude, Where’s My Decade?”
Oly, there is a good name for a new wave/punk band… ” The Chthonic Wombats”
Chthonic youth
Yeah, I like that better, I think. Let’s leave it up to Oly to decide.
I’ve always liked “uprite organ” as a name for a band…
That is a super name! Or it could be ‘The Degenerate Chthonic Wombats in Fedoras’!
Thuperchthonics?
Thuperchthonics?
Good Heavens, person!
Did you have to think about that one, or did Baby Jeebus just beam it into your brain as a gift? Because it was a precious gift, if so. I snorted a Trader Joe’s savory Sesame Cracker into my head when I read it, but it was all okay, because I patted the back of my head lightly and it came back out, hardly the worse for the wear, so I could eat it again.
It was a baby jeebus gift-beam. Or else the lights flickered.
Uncle Dickie’s Shameless Quickies
Oly, isn’t your name a little too close to the Red Hot Chili Peppers, and that is already taken?
I like alpha’s Chthonic Youth
better, I think…
Whaddaya mean, Mr. Man? What song sounds like me?
*puzzled face *
The big financial companies paid politicians to look the other way, and now know how the government will step in to clean up the mess - by billing the taxpayer. How will the system be gamed the next time?
From the University of Pennsylvania’s Wharton School online newsletter:
‘Rewarding Failure’: Will the Crisis Leave a Residue of Moral Hazard?
The federal government has poured hundreds of billions of dollars into the banking system, and most experts seem to agree that the financial crisis is closer to its end than its beginning. But as attention shifts from fire fighting to rebuilding, many are worrying about the “moral hazard” that may remain, with an apparent government safety net encouraging a new round of foolish risk taking…
http://knowledge.wharton.upenn.edu/article.cfm?articleid=2282
New warning on all stock certificates:
WARNING: The Surgeon General has determined that stock ownership is a Moral Hazard and may result in unrealized expectations. Stopping stock ownership now greatly increases your chances of sleeping at night.
And if that doesn’t work, they’ll start including photos.
A few months back we discussed the fate of the HGTV dream house in Sonoma. As it turned out, the “winners” couldn’t afford to keep it.
http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2009/07/15/BU0V18OE45.DTL
Address: 620 Fifth St. E., Sonoma
Asking price: $2.2 million, or about $595 per square foot
Description: Folks who drooled over HGTV’s 2009 “Dream Home” can have a shot at owning it, assuming they have enough dough. The Florida couple who won this year’s dream-home lottery sold the property to developer Steve Ledson, who is now reselling it.
2.2 million huh? Bet they plowed over some great farm land to build these monster homes on subdivided lots. By making the land unproductive and useless to wildlife you’ve toasted it. Might as well salt the entire plot.
Here’s a recent comp found on Zillow. Tell me something, how can a home have a sale price 8 weeks ago of $1.88m yet the Zestimate is $2.2m.
660 5th St E, Sonoma, CA (95476)
Recently Sold: $1,880,000
Zestimate: $2,215,500
3 Beds
3.0 Baths
2,900 sqft
Built: 2000
Lot Size: 20,005
Sold On: 05/15/2009
LOL This just showed up in my inbox from a local mortgage peddler about a new loan program out there. Keep feedin’ the pig, boys!
“Securities-Based Lending
This loan program allows the borrower to use their securities (stocks, bonds, mutual funds) as collateral to obtain funds for any use. Real estate purchase, business expansion, personal use, etc.
Benefits
- Fixed rate between 2.5% and 4.5%
- No income or credit check
- Interest-only payments
- Non personal-recourse loan
- Funds may be used for any purpose
- Close in a matter of days
- Zero lender fees or points
- Zero upfront or due diligence fees”
What could go wrong?
Chuckle. They can’t raid the house for money anymore, so what’s left? I know! Let’s target what little savings Amerikuns have stashed away.
And since they’ve already lost 40% and their ability to retire, might as well they throw all of what’s left on black and go out in a blaze of glory! Breathtaking…
Others here have envisioned a day when savers will be forced to put their money on the table to get things moving again. Looks like it won’t be long now…
No help for CIT.
the CIT has hit the fan
CIT out of luck moment?
Wall Street Journal
* JULY 15, 2009, 8:05 P.M. ET
4th UPDATE:CIT’s Peril Grows As Talks For Government Help End
(Updates to add no-comment from the Federal Reserve.)
By Kathy Shwiff and Kate Haywood
Of DOW JONES NEWSWIRES
NEW YORK (Dow Jones)–The survival of CIT Group Inc. (CIT) looked imperiled late Wednesday, after the lender said in a terse statement it had been “advised” that it couldn’t expect government aid.
The struggling commercial lender, which is facing a worsening liquidity crisis after its customers drew down hundreds of millions of dollars from their credit lines, said its discussions with government agencies have ended and that its board is evaluating alternatives for the company.
CIT’s statement said only that “it has been advised that there is no appreciable likelihood of additional government support being provided over the near term.” Shortly afterward, the U.S. Treasury said there’s “a very high threshold for exceptional government assistance to individual companies.”
The question now was whether the firm, which had already retained a bankruptcy adviser, would join banks like Washington Mutual and Lehman Brothers as a casualty of the credit crisis. Also up in the air: whether its customer base of almost a million small and midsized businesses would continue to have access to credit via CIT or be forced to find other sources of funds in a tight market.
Curt Ritter, a CIT spokesman, declined to comment.
Limited Options
Kathleen Shanley, an analyst at bond research firm Gimme Credit, said a bankruptcy filing or a debt exchange - in which lenders would forgive loans in exchange for a stake in CIT - are now probably the only two options open to the company. Credit rating firm Standard & Poor’s made similar comments earlier this week, when it downgraded CIT’s credit ratings further into junk
“It’s hard to see how CIT can continue as a going concern without a debt restructuring,” Shanley said. Any debt restructuring is likely to have a negative impact on CIT’s bondholders, according to Adam Steer and David Hendler, analysts at CreditSights.
…
…up in the air: whether its customer base of almost a million small and midsized businesses would continue to have access to credit via CIT or be forced to find other sources of funds in a tight market…
..or, not find a source.
A million small and midsized businesses. That’s a lot. Quite a few jobs are directly at risk at ground zero. The fallout from massive layoffs would be widespread, affecting perhaps twice as many businesses and employees further down the food chain.
Score one for the economic anarchists.
BB et al: “No comment.”
Whatever became of Glasnost at the Fed?
” ‘no comment’ is a comment”
Especially when the newspaper’s web site uses a blatant comment to telegraph the absence of a Fed comment
Financial Times
CIT faces bankruptcy filing
By FT Reporters
Published: July 16 2009 01:02 | Last updated: July 16 2009 01:02
CIT faced the prospect of a bankruptcy filing or other restructuring on Wednesday as hopes of a government-led rescue plan for the troubled US middle-market lender were dashed.
“There is no appreciable likelihood of additional government support being provided over the near term,” CIT said in a statement late on Wednesday. “The company’s board of directors and management, in consultation with its advisers, are evaluating alternatives.”
EDITOR’S CHOICE
CIT deemed ‘not too big to fail’ - Jul-16
CIT has battled a liquidity crisis and faces $1bn of debt maturing next month, but it is locked out of the wholesale funding markets.
…
This CITuation is a perfect illustration of what goes wrong when the Fed is allowed to play God and decide what companies get government lifelines and which ones do not.
CIT deemed ‘not too big to fail’
By Francesco Guerrera, Henny Sender, Saskia Scholtes and Julie MacIntosh in New York
Published: July 16 2009 01:02 | Last updated: July 16 2009 01:02
“There will be no Christmas.”
That was the reaction of a Wall Street executive upon hearing that CIT, the financial group that specialises in lending to retailers and other middle-market companies, could soon be heading for bankruptcy protection.
The failure of regulators to agree on a last-minute rescue package for the 101-year-old company might starve a large chunk of corporate America of much-needed capital and hit the economy at a time when the recovery appears to be faltering.
In-fighting between the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation, the Federal Reserve and the Treasury seemed to have killed hopes that CIT would secure a government lifeline.
“They did what everyone else did, but did not get what others got,” said one adviser to CIT, noting that in spite of receiving $2.3bn in bail-out funds and permission to convert into a bank holding company, CIT was denied access to debt guaranteed by the government.
…
Isn’t it quite obvious that the central banking cartel is engaged in this sort of coordinated printing press operation? What happens when some countries defect from cartel discipline?
“Bernanke’s Secret Debt Solution”
By Daniel at 25 June, 2009, 1:47 am
“It’s a strategy that can ease the burden of ALL debts — by
simultaneously devaluing ALL currencies … and re-inflating ALL
asset prices.
Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke … Treasury Secretary Geithner …
President Obama … former Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson …
former Fed Chairman Paul Volcker … Warren Buffett … George
Soros and central bankers and politicians all over the world are
well aware of it, and in my opinion, are already working on it.”
The Germans probably fear inflation more than most populations, knowing what it unleashed the last time it happened. So, they might balk. And they’re big playa.
I was thinking China would balk, once they have sufficiently diversified out of $US, but some recent comments from the German Chancellor seem to also send a rather strong signal…
Umm - you guys do realize Germany doesn’t have its own currency - right?
Talk, talk, talk. Aint no one diversifying out of dollars cause there aint no where else to go. We’re the only game in town. You can’t trust the governments that have money, and the governments you can trust are broke. What are they gonna buy, moon rocks?
The Precious™?
Note to self: new filter rule I think I’ve discovered:
If you include the name of a poster in your reply, it goes to the validation queue. I’m not sure if it’s just the poster of the direct comment you’re replying to, or any poster…
drumminj, you’re a tool (testing my theory
nope, went straight through. Hrm….maybe it’s smart enough to only do that for other posters? Someone want to give it a try?
Otherwise I guess the server was just hungry for that one post this afternoon.
drumminj, you are a stupid doofus and an idiot and a tosser of codswallop.
Gee, that went right through.
Gee, that went right through.
The filter probably knows that everything you said is true
It’s a FIRO queue.
First In, Random Out
Gee, that went right through.
*Glorkiggle *
That was the sound of me swallowing my own head by accident, in the middle of laughing.
Geez I hope i never get put on ignored i love people i love the conversations here and
Please allow me to introduce myself
Im a man of wealth and taste
Ok not wealth….
And that was not a disrespect of drumminj, but only some merry laughing, is all.
*poop*
I was gonna say that went right through but I was told I could only post one comment every 60 seconds. So much for stream of consciousness posting! The Filter makes no mistakes.
seems like somethings up.. today, my posts seem to stay in limbo until I post again. Then the previous post appears, while that most recent does the limbo..
and it’s been hours between posts.
.. could be coincidence.. who knows..
Bummer
NH man charged 23 quadrillion dollars for smokes
Wed Jul 15, 5:30 pm ET
MANCHESTER, N.H. – A New Hampshire man says he swiped his debit card at a gas station to buy a pack of cigarettes and was charged over 23 quadrillion dollars. Josh Muszynski checked his account online a few hours later and saw the 17-digit number — a stunning $23,148,855,308,184,500 (twenty-three quadrillion, one hundred forty-eight trillion, eight hundred fifty-five billion, three hundred eight million, one hundred eighty-four thousand, five hundred dollars).
Muszynski says he spent two hours on the phone with Bank of America trying to sort out the string of numbers and the $15 overdraft fee.
The bank corrected the error the next day.
Bank of America tells WMUR-TV only the card issuer, Visa, could answer questions. Visa, in turn, referred questions to the bank.
Hah! Just another obvious attempt by the banksters and money changers to steal from j6pk! Dear Lord when will it end????
This is the last straw. Where’s that damn pitchfork..
Tax them smokers, I say!
Did BoA have a chance to remind Mr. Muszynski of Securities-Based Lending?
He should have returned them and had the charge credited to his account.
‘You know, corporate accounting is sure as hell gonna notice $23,148,855,308,184,500 , Michael! ‘ LOL
A graph I created showing a lag between the home price bubble bursting and mortgage debt level falling. Mortgage debt hasn’t even yet begun to fall significantly, whereas home prices have already given up about 2/3 of the frontside gains.
This is why we have a long ways to go yet, and why home prices will vastly overshoot on the downside - at least in inflation-adjusted terms.
It’s likely of course that the actual debt level won’t get back down to where it was pre-bubble - as it didn’t in the last two smaller bubbles. But given the size of the bubble - I seriously doubt it can avoid falling at least some, in inflation-adjusted terms.
(Will post again tomorrow)
Isn’t the Fed directly propping up the value of mortgage debt?
Karl Denninger just posted a funny one on youtube. Calling Kudlow and Kneale out on the carpet.
“CNBC Bulltards”
youtube.com/watch?v=sRrnLmieelM&feature=channel_page
“CNBC Bulltards”
LMAO
Experts tell Congress: “Don’t Mess With The Fed” Too important to fail.
How can a central bank under the thumb of Megabank, Inc, not to mention subjugated to the Treasury Secretary (aka chairman of the President’s Working Group on Financial Markets) properly be described as “independent”?
CIT is toast. Tomorrow should be a great day for the stock market, as the Fed dumps in liquidity to offset the fallout from the CITuation at hand.
Wall Street Journal
* JULY 16, 2009
CIT Rescue Talks Collapse
Impact on Small Firms Feared if Lender Fails; Stress Test Finds Need for $4 Billion
By DAMIAN PALETTA, SERENA NG and JEFFREY MCCRACKEN
Ailing business lender CIT Group Inc. said Wednesday “there is no appreciable likelihood” it will receive fresh government support in the near future, marking the first time since the collapse of Lehman Brothers that the U.S. has declined to aid a struggling financial company of significant scope and size.
What happens next will be a major test of whether the financial system and economy are sufficiently healed to absorb CIT’s problems.
The company is a source of funding for thousands of small and midsize businesses. It’s also a big player providing cash advances to clothing manufacturers and suppliers, and credit to retailers to pay off invoices. The impact could be especially acute in California because of the state’s large apparel-import business.
CIT representatives scrambled Wednesday night to line up at least $2 billion in rescue financing from existing debtholders, according to people familiar with the matter. CIT has given the debtholders 24 hours to decide if they will come up with new cash. The company indicated to investors that without the rescue financing, it would likely have to file for bankruptcy protection as more borrowers draw down credit lines, these people said.
In its written statement, issued after the market’s close, CIT said it was “evaluating alternatives.”
The collapse of the government talks appears to be rooted in CIT’s worsening financial situation and disagreements among regulators as to the best way to proceed.
…
How has home ownership compared to inflation over the last three years?
Wall Street Journal
* CHEAPSKATE
* JULY 16, 2009
cheapskate
Home Ownership Was Never a Road to Riches
* By NEAL TEMPLIN
My wife and I have sold all of our four previous homes for more than we paid for them—sometimes a lot more.
We’ve been pretty lucky. We’ve never overpaid much for a house, we’ve always bought in good school districts and decent neighborhoods, we’ve lived in neighborhoods where prices soared during the real-estate bubble, and we’ve been hurt but not decimated by the bursting of that bubble.
When I constructed a very basic cash-flow model for our home-buying history—selling price minus purchase price, renovations and repairs—it showed a roughly 3.5% annualized return on investment, from 1991 through the summer of last year. That’s when we sold our last home and bought our current one.
Then things got ugly. If we were forced to sell our current home, which I estimate has lost 5% or so of its value in our 10 months of ownership—despite the more than $20,000 we’ve made in improvements—our cumulative return over the years sinks to approximately 2% annually. And if prices keep falling in our northern New Jersey neighborhood, as is likely for a while, that return will shrink even further.
So do I regret owning a home? Heck, no. It’s not a get-rich scheme, and Americans never should have viewed it as one. Owning a home has given my family a series of anchors to cling to as we’ve moved around the country for my job. It’s allowed us to live in pleasant neighborhoods where it would have been tough to find a rental house. And paying down a mortgage is a form of forced savings, which should help us in retirement.
Columbia Business School’s Christopher Mayer, who has studied housing markets, says our experience with home-price gains is pretty typical. Home appreciation nationally has run about 1% above inflation over time.
…