July 23, 2009

Bits Bucket For July 23, 2009

Post off-topic ideas, links and Craigslist finds here. Please visit the HBB Forum. And see the American Visionaries series from Schwarzfilm.




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351 Comments »

Comment by Stpn2me
2009-07-23 05:04:38

Good Morning Everyone!!!

Anybody know any good realtor jokes?

Comment by pressboardbox
2009-07-23 06:02:28

Have you heard the one about the successful realtor? - neither have I.

Comment by not a gator
2009-07-23 14:27:27

badum bump ching

 
 
Comment by skroodle
2009-07-23 06:24:05

America is really great. It’s the only place where you can borrow money for a down payment, get a 1st and 2nd
mortgage and call yourself a homeowner.

(Q) Did you hear about Robin Hood’s house?
(A) It has a little John.

(Q) There is a Real Estate Investor, a Realtor and a Lawyer. And you have a gun with two bullets…
Which should you shoot?
(A) You should shoot the realtor twice… Just to be sure.

Two Realtors Talking: My buyers want a new home on the outskirts of their income, that is.

The trouble with owning a home is that no matter where you sit, you’re looking at something you should be doing.

Why do you have your front door leading right into the dining room? So my relatives won’t have to waste any time.

If you think no one cares you’re alive, miss a couple of house payments.

Realtor to First Time Homebuyer: First you folks tell me what you can afford, then we’ll have a good laugh and go on from there.

I listed a maintenance free house. In the last 25 years there hasn’t been any maintenance.

My real estate agent was always smiling. I didn’t think anybody could have that many teeth without being a barracuda.

Hey if you want to know exactly where the property line is, just watch the neighbor cut the grass.

Charity is a thing that begins at home and usually stays there.

A homebuyer talking to a judge: I bought a two story house. One story before I bought, and another afterwards.

The worst part of a real estate bargain are the neighbors.

Comment by bill in Los Angeles
2009-07-23 08:21:37

The trouble with owning a home is that no matter where you sit, you’re looking at something you should be doing.

The worst part of a real estate bargain are the neighbors.

Funny but true! That’s what being a mortgage slave is all about.

Comment by Professor Bear
2009-07-23 10:05:45

“The worst part of a real estate bargain are the neighbors.”

Reminds me that we should negotiate a lower rent to reflect that a convicted sex offender lives across the street…

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Comment by drumminj
2009-07-23 10:27:10

convicted sex offender lives across the street…

What’d he do? Urinate in public? Have sex with his 17 year old gf when he was 18?

(not a fan of the sex offender registry as it’s currently implemented, if you can’t tell)

 
Comment by BanteringBear
2009-07-23 10:59:09

“What’d he do? Urinate in public? Have sex with his 17 year old gf when he was 18?

(not a fan of the sex offender registry as it’s currently implemented, if you can’t tell)”

I call BS on this statement. I’ve checked the registries near my three residences over the past decade, and I cannot remember one conviction which was for something as benign as you’ve suggested. All were rapists and molesters. The sheriff web sites go into detail with not only pictures of these wastes of life, but descriptions of the crimes, the time served, and the probability of re-offending. I think it’s an awesome service for families with children, and single women. If it were up to me I’d brand their faces or cut their genitals off- or both.

 
Comment by Arizona Slim
2009-07-23 11:08:13

My aunt helps to maintain the offender database for her state, and, trust me, the people in it aren’t angels.

 
Comment by drumminj
2009-07-23 12:05:09

I call BS on this statement. I’ve checked the registries near my three residences over the past decade, and I cannot remember one conviction which was for something as benign as you’ve suggested.

Here are some cases where something as benign as I’ve suggested has landed one on the registry:

http // ladyliberty.wordpress.com/2007/03/07/teens-photograph-themselves-found-guilty-of-child-pornography/

http // seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/nationworld/2003101190_offender03.html

http // http://www.boingboing.net/2007/02/20/teen_couple_who_phot.html

http // http://www.bakelblog.com/nobodys_business/2007/03/florida_banishe.html

Here’s a good general link:

http // http://www.liveleak.com/view?i=1c7_1245056884

Certainly there are people who do bad things, and those people are on the list (rightly so, though I think the registry is bad in general…either they’ve served their time or not. Not allowing them to live in certain areas, and being able to change the rules after they were sentenced seems unconstitutional to me). My point is that the list no longer serves the purpose it was originally intended to.

 
Comment by alpha-sloth
2009-07-23 12:08:32

I too have heard you can be registered just by being arrested for public urination, skinny-dipping, mooning, etc. Is this not the case? I sure hope it isn’t. (I’ve done all three) I don’t have a problem with the idea of the registry, as long as those registered are truly sex offenders.

 
Comment by drumminj
2009-07-23 12:21:13

Hrm…somehow my “beat the filter” link editing got foiled. Sorry for that mess up there.

 
Comment by CarrieAnn
2009-07-23 12:24:15

The most recent sex offender in our town put a hand down the pants of a 7 year old before the mother ran out and intervened. He avoided jail time because he was mentally disabled in an auto accident. This protects the kids in the neighborhood how? Oh yeah, it was not his first incident.

Friend walked outside her bedroom late one night while her husband was out of town, saw something weird in the low light and reached out to see what it was. It was a man’s arm. She soon found out, the family friend she’d met while volunteering at the local fire dept had been peeping in her windows for weeks. Her neighbors noticed his car was parked down the road from her house a lot but said nothing perhaps wondering if it was an affair. As the case went to trial she found out he’d already done time for doing something to a minor. He had been allowed to join the fire dept and have access to people in vulnerable situations very soon after returning from jail in a town small enough that his employers knew what they were doing. Good thing he left when she screamed.

drumminj, I consider it my responsibility to discern the boyfriends of the underaged from these creeps. I’m very thankful for the registry.

 
Comment by BanteringBear
2009-07-23 12:42:05

Cherry picking national date to try to support your argument is pretty weak, drumminj. How about just checking the King County registry, huh? I just pulled up a specific address in North Seattle. Within a 2 mile radius, there are 32 offenders. It reads like a who’s who of child molestation and rape. Why don’t you follow this link and show me what I’m missing? These creeps are getting what they deserve.

http://www.icrimewatch.net/results.php?AgencyID=54473&whichaddr=&SubmitAddrSearch=1&AddrStreet=6015+35th+Ave&AddrCity=Seattle&AddrState=48&AddrZip=98115&AddrZipPlus=&radius=2

 
Comment by Carl Morris
2009-07-23 13:03:26

Sure anybody can find examples across the spectrum. The point was that people are on the list who don’t fit the original intent of the list. I am personally aware of one guy who was railroaded into a plea deal that he now wishes he’d never taken. It resulted in him being in the registry due to a consensual act with an adult that was originally reported as an assault due to embarrassment on the part of the woman when her boyfriend found out. Even though she admitted to the truth later, the legal system spun out of control from there and his life has been nearly destroyed over it.

 
Comment by drumminj
2009-07-23 13:08:35

Cherry picking national date to try to support your argument is pretty weak, drumminj

What argument am I supporting, BB? I looked in my neighborhood. I can look at your link too. I never said that most people on the registry are there for non-sex offenses. I simply pointed out that there are people on the registry that IMO shouldn’t be, for things like public urination, streaking, and statutory rape. I provided links to back up my claim that it does in fact happen.

So what argument have I supported weakly?

(btw, in my neighborhood it would appear there are several people on the registry simply for talking to minors…but of course there’s not a case # referenced where one can see the details of the actual crime, rather than simply the statute under which they pled/were convicted).

 
Comment by drumminj
2009-07-23 13:27:41

btw, it would appear that one has to register as a sex offender in WA state if you were convicted of kidnapping.

Not exactly a “sex crime”…

 
Comment by alpha-sloth
2009-07-23 13:28:53

The fact that there are such evil people on the registry just goes to show the absurdity of including the mooners and the public pissers. I’m not saying there shouldn’t be a list, just that it should be a list of actual sex offenders. Not people guilty of doing something I’ll bet 90% of us have done.

 
Comment by BanteringBear
2009-07-23 13:29:12

What are you looking for, drumminj, perfection? Has our legal system ever been perfect? Because a few people may not, in your eyes, be deserving of such a stigma, should we just bag the whole system to provide cover for the majority who are deserving? Are you, personally, being affected by this?

“(btw, in my neighborhood it would appear there are several people on the registry simply for talking to minors…but of course there’s not a case # referenced where one can see the details of the actual crime, rather than simply the statute under which they pled/were convicted).”

What?? Why don’t you offer some proof? This, IMO, is a ridiculous allegation.

 
Comment by drumminj
2009-07-23 13:47:27

BB, I go with the mantra of “better to let 10 guilty men go free than convict one innocent man.” So while I don’t expect the list to be “perfect”, I think that a great injustice is done if someone must bear that stigma (and life-long punishment), if it’s not warranted.

No, I”m not personally affected by this. Can’t I seek out justice for others, even if I’m not suffering injustice at the moment?


What?? Why don’t you offer some proof? This, IMO, is a ridiculous allegation.

It’s a ridiculous allegation that there are people on the list solely for communication with a minor? Perhaps you should look at the list more closely, namely this offense:

9.68A.090 - Communication with minor for immoral purposes

See description here:

http // apps.leg.wa.gov/RCW/default.aspx?cite=9.68A.090

 
Comment by BanteringBear
2009-07-23 14:04:32

“Communication with minor for immoral purposes”

You know what? If some scumbag is talking to a little kid about sexual acts, and other unspeakable things, they ARE a sex offender. Do you disagree? This whole subject is a real hot button issue with me. My younger sister was raped and sodomized for a week by some sicko in a van. It’s only by the grace of god she wasn’t murdered. The whole idea of protecting the “rights” of these wastes of life is exactly what enables individuals like Joseph Duncan to operate. Disgusting.

 
Comment by drumminj
2009-07-23 14:37:06

Do you disagree?

Actually, yes, I do. I don’t believe that having a sexually explicit conversation with a minor should be a crime, let alone one for which you’re branded and punished for life.

I’m sorry to hear about your sister, and agree that rape is a crime and one should be punished appropriately for it. However, words != physical violence.

Regarding the registry itself, I feel that it is punishment after the fact. The sentence gets extended/changed as the laws about the registry change. This, IMO, is not justice. It’s equivalent to changing the punishment after you’ve been sentenced. That should not happen in a system of justice. It’d be like being sentenced to 10 years in jail, and just as you’re on your last day, they tell you that they changed the law and now you have to do another 10 years.

Note that I’m not passing judgement on individuals or trying to defend people who commit crimes. I’m just arguing that we punish people appropriately and fairly.

 
Comment by not a gator
2009-07-23 14:39:20

I agree that public urination or solicitation (for money or for free) of an adult shouldn’t be on the list. In Mass. when they first developped the list they had a bunch of gay men who took pleas to keep the police from publishing their names and addresses in the 1960’s. Sometimes they were simply picked up in raids of private parties. Others were having sex at rest stops, which may be a public nuisance, but is still a far cry from sexual assault.

However, I’m pretty sure the crime you mentioned, “Communication with minor for immoral purposes”, is one of those charges like “conspiracy to—”, where they catch the guy while he’s still grooming the kid in order to molest him, but before he actually does the deed. I don’t know the law in that state, but it might also cover the old lure the horny young teen in the chatroom and try to set up a date deal. In my state I think that’s called “solicitation of a minor” something or other. But I could be wrong.

I know in some cultures these sorts of things (not forcible rape, but graphic discussions and touching) aren’t considered as taboo, but they are in our culture. At some point an adult should be mature enough to realize what they are doing is highly illegal. Now, maybe if you move to one of those Islamic paradises like Afghanistan or Niger you can marry and rape young prepubescent girls (and divorce them when they bore you) or pay a fee to rape young boys and it’s all good. In the US, not so much.

 
Comment by BanteringBear
2009-07-23 14:42:48

“I don’t believe that having a sexually explicit conversation with a minor should be a crime, let alone one for which you’re branded and punished for life.”

It’s my opinion that people like you are dangerous.

 
Comment by drumminj
2009-07-23 15:14:12

It’s my opinion that people like you are dangerous.

You’re welcome to your opinion. I’d just ask yourself why it should be illegal to do so with someone under 18, but somehow at 18 it’s okay. What about an adult with the mental capacities of a child? Why not just make sexually explicit conversations illegal, period?

If it accompanies another crime, then sure, that crime should be prosecuted. But conversations, short of “conspiracy to commit…blah blah” are protected speech.

Should it be illegal to teach your kid about “the birds and the bees”? What about your niece/nephew? Is it wrong to teach your kid (or someone else’s) what ‘oral sex’ is, or how to perform it? To instruct in the use of condoms?

What if I have a conversation with someone over IM, who presents themselves as being over 18? What if a girl comes up to me in a bar and starts hitting on me. If I have a suggestive conversation with her, and then she ends up being under 18? Age of consent in WA is 16, yet because she’s a minor, I’m committing a crime? Is it a crime for her to say sexually explicit things to me?

 
Comment by aNYCdj
2009-07-23 17:08:47

Bantering… Drummin

18 are freakin kidding me…10-12year olds are listening to filthy hip hop and rap music training the little girls that its ok to be a pole dancer as a career.

sexting, sending half naked pics via cellphone

come on its a whole new era in sex crimes…everyone cant be jailed.

————————————————————-
Why not just make sexually explicit conversations illegal, period?

If some scumbag is talking to a little kid about sexual acts, and other unspeakable things, they ARE a sex offender.

 
Comment by Watching the Carnage
2009-07-23 17:12:19

Wow,

Drumminj - have we seen you on an episode of Perverted Justice? You are sick - just go away. What a sick twist to a forum that I respect and enjoy all viewpoints - except this one.

PUUUKE

Ben - I generally don’t like post deletions but this one is sick:

“I don’t believe that having a sexually explicit conversation with a minor should be a crime, let alone one for which you’re branded and punished for life.”

 
Comment by Watching the Carnage
2009-07-23 17:22:44

Cripes - I missed this one from Drumminj:

“Is it wrong to teach your kid (or someone else’s) what ‘oral sex’ is, or how to perform it? ”

Yes - absolutely

Go away - I think a poster here has a tool to block posters from my views. Can someone post that link please?

Thanks!

 
Comment by drumminj
2009-07-23 17:34:33

Go away - I think a poster here has a tool to block posters from my views. Can someone post that link please?

Oh the irony…I created that tool. You’re welcome to use it if you like: The Joshua Tree Extension. Just add my name to the ignore list.

I’m sick because I feel that speech is supposed to be free, and that conversations in and of themselves shouldn’t be illegal. By all means ignore me for believing in freedom of expression.

You really believe that sex ed should be illegal? Really?!

 
Comment by Watching the Carnage
2009-07-23 18:24:58

Drumminj,

Yes - that’s ironic.

Look at the language you have used and put it in context of an adult with a non-consenting minor. Far different from sex ed in a controlled and consenting environment.

Jason, do you have children?

 
Comment by drumminj
2009-07-23 18:57:41

Far different from sex ed in a controlled and consenting environment.

The whole point of the age of consent laws is that children cannot give consent. As such, even a classroom is not a “consenting” environment (especially considering children are compelled to be there). BanteringBear attacked my assertion that a “sexually explicit” conversation with a minor should not be illegal. I’m pointing out that sex-ed can be “sexually explicit”. And it doesn’t have to happen only in a classroom - as I pointed out it could be a parent, or an uncle/aunt, etc.

No, I do not have children. And as such my reaction to this is objective and based on favoring justice and freedom, rather than emotional and reacting to some perceived threat (real or otherwise) to someone I care about.

If you feel that a sexually explicit conversation with a minor should be illegal, let me ask this: is a 16 year old who has an explicit conversation with another 16 year old committing a crime? If not, how can it be a crime for an 18 year old to speak exactly the same words?

BTW - I did not realize we were on a first-name basis.

 
Comment by desertdweller
2009-07-23 19:39:54

I think it is okay for Bits/Buckets freedom of speech.

You all have your pov and personal experiences, but drumin has a point too. Legal system isn’t perfect, but it should allow for case by case fixin if it is a moonin etc. Shoot, if that is the case, I would be a perv from college, struck Dennys in college/Sandiego. Go ahead,arrest me.
Got flashed as a young teen, and that was disturbing cause the guy chased me down. Yet, at end of year, all the boys in HS would have a drunken pantsing party in the river bed and drive through town to throw their tennis shoes into the trees at the swimming pool at HS. I can’t think of how many lives would have been ruined by those teens and getting arrested. But they didn’t. Thankfully.

All other cases are horrid and should be punished.

 
Comment by Watching the Carnage
2009-07-23 20:11:17

Yes,

I’m done with this - I’m here for the housing and investment insight I have gleaned here over the years. And desertdweller - the stuff above doesn,t even give me pause.

I’m still somewhat concerned that a thirty-year-old male feels it’s OK to :to teach someone else’s kid what ‘oral sex’ is, and how to perform it? ”

Ages and situation are apparently unimportant.

DONE

 
Comment by drumminj
2009-07-23 20:34:29

I’m still somewhat concerned that a thirty-year-old male feels it’s OK to :to teach someone else’s kid what ‘oral sex’ is, and how to perform it? ”

There’s a difference between feeling it’s “okay” and feeling it should be illegal.

Not all things I disapprove of should be illegal, IMO. With freedom comes the need for tolerance. “Freedom of speech” isn’t just freedom of speech you agree with.

Anyway, sounds like we’re all dropping this conversation. Feel free to think I’m some kind of pedophile and ignore me. I’ll continue to defend people’s freedom to engage in behavior I might not approve of and to speak things I might not agree with.

 
Comment by Lost in Utah
2009-07-23 21:43:01

“Actually, yes, I do. I don’t believe that having a sexually explicit conversation with a minor should be a crime, let alone one for which you’re branded and punished for life.”

All I can say is drumminj, you’re one sick puppy, Go away and don’t come back.

 
Comment by Lost in Utah
2009-07-23 21:45:56

I’ll continue to defend people’s freedom to engage in behavior I might not approve of and to speak things I might not agree with.

Think of your logic here (or lack of such) - it’s not about whether you approve of it or not, it’s about what’s moral and immoral. This is not a relative thing. Please just go away…

 
Comment by ahansen
2009-07-23 22:14:51

Drummmin,
It’s a bit late and I don’t know if you’ll read this, but I wanted to support you for sticking up for rational free speech. We all need to remember that some “trusted adults” are simply that, and that ad hominim attacks–even those motivated by legitimate personal concerns– are unwarranted here.

In my life, I’ve seen good-minded adults emotionally ruined by spurious accusations from vengeful kids, and I’ve had my own creepy experiences with adults who’ve had felonious boundary issues.

Suffice it to say that it’s a thorny issue. You made some valid points that perhaps we should all take a deep breath and thoughtfully consider.

 
Comment by drumminj
2009-07-23 22:51:57

it’s not about whether you approve of it or not, it’s about what’s moral and immoral. This is not a relative thing. Please just go away…

Laws aren’t necessarily driven by morality (otherwise many many more things would be illegal in this day and age). Regardless, I’d have to say that I wouldn’t consider it immoral. At the same point in time, I wouldn’t likely have a ’sexually explicit’ conversation with a minor. I’d consider it bad form and inappropriate.

If you want to think Im a ’sick puppy’ for what I believe, I can’t stop you. But recognize what you think I’m sick for - believing that a *conversation* shouldn’t be illegal. What you’re basically saying is that it’s okay for a kid to watch a movie that has sexual content. But it should be illegal for an adult to describe the exact same scene in words. Likewise, it’s okay for an adult to give a teenager a book about sex, describing different sex acts, but it should be illegal for that author to sit down and quote the book in person.

Is that logical? Rational? I’d argue ‘no’. You’re welcome to think otherwise, but you won’t find me telling you (or anyone else) to “please go away” because I disagree with you.

 
Comment by Lost in Utah
2009-07-23 23:19:09

WTF??? When did I say it was OK for a kid to watch a movie with sexual content??? Or that it was OK to give a teenager a book with sexual content? Where exactly did I say that? No where, I don’t say that nor believe it.

I don’t want you to go away because i disagree with you, I want you to go away because you’re making me quite ill. Sorry, drumminj, you’re not talking about free speech, you’re talking about a complete lack of morals here. I believe kids have the right to grow up without being subjected to such sickness.

 
Comment by Lost in Utah
2009-07-23 23:31:04

My reply isn’t posting, but basically I want to know where I said that such things were OK. They’re not. I didn’t say that. And what the H is this crap doing on a housing blog?

 
Comment by drumminj
2009-07-24 08:41:46

When did I say it was OK for a kid to watch a movie with sexual content??? Or that it was OK to give a teenager a book with sexual content? Where exactly did I say that? No where, I don’t say that nor believe it.

My bad, Lost. As far as I understand it, those things are legal right now. I made the assumption you agreed with those laws as they currently stand.

Honestly I’m shocked to read that you believe minors shouldn’t be “subjected” to such things as sex ed, and they shouldn’t be allowed to read a book or see a movie with any sexual content.

 
 
 
Comment by awaiting wipeout
2009-07-23 13:52:07

(Q) There is a Real Estate Investor, a Realtor and a Lawyer. And you have a gun with two bullets…
Which should you shoot?
(A) You should shoot the realtor twice… Just to be sure…

I’d shoot the Realtor and the Lawyer. The R E Investor will shoot himself later.

 
 
Comment by alpha-sloth
2009-07-23 07:59:25

Hey Stpn, are there realtors in Afghanistan? That might be a country where they’d earn their 3%, if they’ve got to worry about local militias etc when they’re holding an open house.

Comment by Stpn2me
2009-07-23 10:00:46

You can pay for houses with cattle and donkeys.

But the upkeep of mud and rock houses is brutal. You lose a wall everytime the rainy season comes. Guess those granite countertops wouldnt mean that much then!

A pilot friend of mind who is looking over my shoulder just said, “I wish they (the enemy) would show up a sign saying “I’m a realtor”, I’d expend all my ammo trying to get em!”

He’s only playing of course :)

Comment by alpha-sloth
2009-07-23 13:12:49

“expend all my ammo trying to get em”

LOL See, that’s what I mean about them earning their 3%!

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Comment by DennisN
2009-07-23 08:09:17

Q: How many realtors does it take to shingle a roof?

A: Well it depends upon how thinly you slice them.

 
Comment by Arizona Slim
2009-07-23 08:45:13

Or, how about this old saw: If you don’t have any friends in real estate, you don’t have any friends.

 
Comment by Professor Bear
2009-07-23 10:03:13

Q. How do you know whether a Realtor™ is lying to you?

A. Check whether his lips are moving.

 
Comment by desertdweller
2009-07-23 10:43:54

Did you hear the nut job who from Ca is a forgotten Gabor sister is claiming our POTUS doesn’t have a real birth cert?
She is a RE, Dentist, and lawyer.
Got that, this nutjob is a lawyer, dentist, and RE agent. roflol

Comment by LehighValleyGuy
2009-07-23 11:12:57

I don’t really want to open this can of worms, but I guess you’ve opened it, so, DOES the POTUS have a real birth certificate?

Comment by SanFranciscoBayAreaGal
2009-07-23 11:30:09

Do you have a real birth certificate? Just asking :)

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Comment by LehighValleyGuy
2009-07-23 11:51:51

I’m pretty sure I was born.

 
Comment by Arizona Slim
2009-07-23 11:59:22

I do! I do!

Says I was born in Pittsburgh in the same year that Chevy produced its best, most classic car ever. (That would be 1957.) Still see cars from that year, and, oh, do I get excited when I do.

Oh, I might add that I interrupted my parents’ date night. They’d gone out to see “Shootout at the O.K. Corral” on a Saturday night. After all, I wasn’t expected to arrive for another three weeks, so why not?

Well, so much for that plan.

I didn’t care that there were 34 shots fired in 17 seconds at the O.K. Corral. I was finding Mom’s Place to be a little too confining, and I wanted out.

My mother dismissed my wanting to emerge into The Real World as yet another one of my gestational rampages. (I was so active in utero that I was thought to be twins.) My dad said that it would be a good idea to head over to the hospital, just to be sure.

I think he had visions of me being born in the Fort Pitt Tunnel during the Monday morning rush hour, and being my prim and proper father, he didn’t want anything like that to happen.

So, into the hospital my folks went. I was born around sunrise the next morning.

 
Comment by Silverback1011
2009-07-23 16:46:52

Awww. I think that’s a good story.

 
 
 
Comment by SanFranciscoBayAreaGal
2009-07-23 12:01:14

desert,

You will like the response from Jon Stewart on the Daily Show.

Stewart to Dobbs: “”Do you even watch CNN?”

Here’s the link:

http://www.salon.com/politics/war_room/2009/07/23/stewart_dobbs/

Comment by desertdweller
2009-07-23 19:32:30

That was funny. And I didn’t want to open up that window, Lehigh, but you wouldn’t have gotten the ridiculousness of it all if I hadn’t put it into context.

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Comment by desertdweller
2009-07-23 19:33:54

That was funny.SFO gal!

LehighGuy, And I didn’t want to open up that window, Lehigh, but you wouldn’t have gotten the ridiculousness of it all if I hadn’t put it into context.

testing.

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Comment by Lane from s.c.
2009-07-23 05:13:37

I have one. Its going to be a huge week!

Lane

Comment by Rancher
2009-07-23 06:11:30

Redundancy?

 
 
Comment by wmbz
2009-07-23 05:16:42

Ginnie Debt May Swell to $1 Trillion on Down Payments

July 22 (Bloomberg) — Mortgage bonds guaranteed by U.S. agency Ginnie Mae will probably swell to $1 trillion by the end of 2010 because borrowers with low down payments or credit scores can only qualify for government-insured loans, Bank of America Corp. analysts said.

The Federal Housing Administration, which insures loans with down payments as low as 3.5 percent and has no credit-score requirements, is “the only source of funding for these leveraged borrowers,” Ankur Mehta and Ohmsatya Ravi, the New York-based analysts, wrote in a report yesterday.

Debt explicitly backed by the U.S. through Ginnie Mae, formally known as the Government National Mortgage Association, climbed to $680 billion as of June 30 from $360 billion two years earlier, as record home-price declines caused the collapse of the “non-agency” mortgage-bond market and tougher standards at banks, mortgage insurers and mortgage-finance companies Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, the analysts said.

Increased reliance on the government by higher-risk borrowers may cause the U.S. losses. Senator Richard Shelby, an Alabama Republican said in January the FHA “poses a significant risk to taxpayers.”

Further Ginnie Mae growth will be fueled by more borrowers using FHA loans to buy homes or to refinance, either to tap home equity or to lower their payments, the analysts wrote. Lenders package those mortgages into bonds backed by Ginnie Mae, which offers buyers of mortgage bonds composed of loans backed by other agencies guarantees of timely principal and interest payments. FHA loans charge 1.75 percent upfront and 0.55 percent annually for home-loan insurance.

Keeping Programs Unchanged

“We are assuming here that the government will not change the FHA/GMNA mortgage programs significantly,” the Bank of America analysts said.

Last month, applications for mortgages backed by the FHA or Department of Veterans Affairs represented 35.9 percent of all applications for refinancings or home purchases, the highest share since 1990, according to the Washington-based Mortgage Bankers Association. FHA mortgages represent about half of new loans for home purchases, up from about 10 percent at the start of last year, Bank of America said.

Comment by InMontana
2009-07-23 05:32:50

so…sell GNMA?

Comment by joeyinCalif
2009-07-23 05:50:53

i don’t think the amount or percentage of loans GNMA handles matters much.. How can it fail? Where is it’s competition? As long as credit remains tight and the secondary markets remain clogged up there’s few better places to invest in mortgages.

i have a very diverse portfolio including a small chunk of GNMA and it has been about the only thing showing steady positive returns over the last few years..

 
 
Comment by yensoy
2009-07-23 06:13:32

Let’s see how to fix this…

Maybe we should do some out-of-the-box thinking…

Let’s consider all the variables…

hmm…interest rates…salaries…downpayments…savings…

Think I’m missing something here…

Yeah, got it! HOME PRICES! When they go down 50%, GNMA’s debt will go down by up to 52%. I saved America 500 Billion, where do I get a reward?

Comment by packman
2009-07-23 06:58:35

Actually no - home prices going down doesn’t drive debt down - at least yet anyhow:

Home prices vs. mortgage debt chart

Eventually hopefully it will have an impact. At least home prices going down have stopped mortgage debt from *increasing*.

 
 
Comment by pressboardbox
2009-07-23 06:28:14

I’m pretty sure the plan is that years from now Goldman-Sachs will aquire the assets of GNMA for .02 on the dollar and subsequently announce a $2 trillion profit for the quarter.

Comment by Housing Wizard
2009-07-23 09:27:46

For all the people that thought the government backed loans would be prudent ,well they aren’t,and I guess they are one of the only games in town right now . Oh,got to add the tax incentive of 8k to
purchase ,so this is less than 0 down to get into a property . Good for buyers if your not catching a falling knife .

 
 
 
Comment by Pinch-a-penny
2009-07-23 05:25:21

Morning!
Got back from Cancun a couple weeks ago.
During that time, I went to what once was the hottest RE in Latam. Chichen-Itza. It is amazing what they did 1000 years ago and is still standing, and it led me to think about something.
With the advent of globalization, we are slowly and inexorably making a homogenous society worldwide, with about the same products and services. This seems to incite a lot of stagnation. Progress through out human history has been due to diversity and adversity.
We are slowly eroding the pressures that make people come up with other ideas, and imposing only one way of doing things. In short we are taking one set of ideas, and shoving them down every ones throat.
Take housing. Who isn’t tired of tuscany style villas, or some other claptrap like that? We have homogenized neighborhoods, where all the houses look exactly the same with different fake fascias, and call them lussury.
I could go on and on, political discourse, cars, houses, business processes, etc.

Comment by palmetto
2009-07-23 06:03:04

What Pinch said.

It’s called totalitarianism. The wet-dream of so-called global elites. Complete with gulag architecture.

Comment by desertdweller
2009-07-23 10:57:05

what pinch/palmy said. That was what got Thomas Friedman excited was globalization. I see it as an eventual grind to a halt of new ideas. techniques and discoveries. Sure there will be some growth, but not the amount that comes from diversity.

Last time I was in Germany during the weinachtsmarkt in December, I told a friend, don’t bother buying this stuff, you can get it cheaper at World Market around the US.

 
 
Comment by joeyinCalif
2009-07-23 06:06:36

China’s growth eventually stagnated due to a great wall around them. They did develop a complex culture and kept it pure, and probably led the world in certain ways… but eventually developments in the world outside surpassed them.

Do countries benefit from cooperative interaction with other cultures? Surely. It introduces new ideas. If an idea is particularly worthy it becomes universally accepted. Is that a bad thing?

The USA is composed of refugees from other countries. We are forced to live together. While cultural traditions have been diluted and melted together it cannot be argued that we’ve suffered for it…

Kinda sad to see some of the old ways disappear tho..

Comment by Pinch-a-penny
2009-07-23 06:22:31

I was thinking more along the lines of different solutions to the same problems. Globalization is bad in that it forces everybody to use the previous standarized solutions, without coming up with solutions of their own, but your analogy to the great wall of china is valid. Just extend it to the whole world.
I am thinking that diversity of doing things is a good thing. Why on earth would I go to, lets say south america to eat a hamburger at McD’s? Specially when the local produce is nice and fresh? That is the kind of homogenous that I am afraid of. When we no longer are able to see alternatives to what corporations have to offer, will indeed be a sad day in this small blue planet.

Comment by joeyinCalif
2009-07-23 06:36:53

I hear McD’s in Japan offer some traditional Japanese cuisine as well as Japanese versions of the standard fare.
Did Japan force it’s influence on McD’s or did McD influence Japan?

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Comment by NoVa Sideliner
2009-07-23 07:29:32

I can’t say what the specific case was in Japan, but McDonald’s often does try to cater to local tastes. Not that they mind foisting hamburgers on anyone and everyone who will have them, but if they can make some extra sales, they do it. Like veggie burgers in India, and beer in Germany. I’ve even heard they serve Vegemite in Australia but never set foot in a McD’s when I lived there. (But what ELSE could you ever want for breakfast, eh?)

 
Comment by alpha-sloth
2009-07-23 07:41:53

I thought they served goat burgers in India. I’ve wanted to try a goat Big Mac ever since I heard that. And in my experience all McD’s in Europe sell beer. (A fine tradition.)

 
Comment by lavi d
2009-07-23 08:48:54

I thought they served goat burgers in India.

In France, the Big Mac is a Royale with Cheese.

 
Comment by robiscrazy
2009-07-23 09:18:29

Na Lavi,

The Quarter Pounder is a Royale with Cheese (because of the metric system)

Big Mac = Le Big Mac

At least, according to John Travolta in Pulp Fiction.

 
Comment by lavi d
2009-07-23 09:22:11

At least, according to John Travolta in Pulp Fiction.

Oops. Right.

 
Comment by Stpn2me
2009-07-23 10:04:36

In France, the Big Mac is a Royale with Cheese.

Wellll, look at the big brain on Lavi d!!!!

Goat is over-rated, trust me, I know…

I ate at a KFC in korea the last time I was there…most of it tasted funny, but I have eaten some strange things in my day…

 
Comment by alpha-sloth
2009-07-23 14:57:37

I’ve only ever had goat barbecued…and it was pretty darn good. (Of course a good “pit master” can make something as funky as mutton into a gourmet treat.)

 
 
Comment by Anon In DC
2009-07-23 09:53:59

McDonalds in Hawaii has poi (spelling) it’s tara root paste and rice. But yes see your point. I’ve traveled a bit in Western Europe it is all much the same. Thought Ireland still had a lot of local flavor.

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Comment by not a gator
2009-07-23 14:43:45

Yes, Ireland has curry fries. The pommes frites by way of Belgium and the curry by way of India.

For a more Americanized twist, you can also get curry flavored crisps.

 
Comment by Silverback1011
2009-07-23 16:50:05

Goat used in Asian Indian cooking is excellent. Goat biryani is just wonderful. I totally freaked out an Indian lady that I was acquainted with by asking her for some of the delicous-looking biryani that she had put out in a sort of smorgasbord. She said, looking at me strangely, ” It is goat biryani.” I said, “Even better. I love goat.” She didn’t believe me, but gave me some. I ate it right up and asked for more. She was so impressed that after that, she kept bringing my husband & I little freshly-prepared Indian snacks. Yum.

 
Comment by alpha-sloth
2009-07-23 17:22:14

Now that you mention it, Silverback, I remember I’ve also had a goat curry and it was really good too. I’m also a goat cheese lover, although an ex-GF of mine (who grew up on a farm) said if you’ve ever raised a billy goat, you’ll never like the cheese, because the goats smell the same, but funkier. (Therefore I will never raise billy-goats- problem solved.)

 
 
Comment by varelse
2009-07-23 12:54:16

I think if I was in Brazil and saw a McDonalds I’d be very tempted to go in and order a Big Mac just to see if it tasted the same. I’d also be interested to see what they have on the menu that they don’t have in the USofA. I would never travel to an exotic location just to try their McDonalds though, of course. It might be interesting to travel the world and try a McDonalds in every country though. ;)

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Comment by alpha-sloth
2009-07-23 15:06:59

“travel the world and try a McDonalds in every country…”

Not a bad idea. Who knows, McDs might even sponsor you? An interesting aside might be the various condiments given as standard issue with the fries. In the US- catsup of course, in the UK- malt vinegar, in
France- mustard, in Holland- mayo (actually “fritte sauce” in McDs there- Big Mac sauce/1000 island), in Greece- lemon juice (I seem to recall through an ouzo haze). I’m sure there’s more….

 
 
 
 
Comment by pressboardbox
2009-07-23 06:19:22

Don’t talk bad about Tuscany-style villas. You are just jealous.

 
Comment by michael
2009-07-23 06:38:38

i read an article awhile back on how the internet is ruining musical innovation. i’m sure my father felt the same way about MTV though.

Comment by DinOR
2009-07-23 08:01:35

michael,

I could be wrong but I tend to view it in much the same light as the Housing Bubble itself? It’s broken down the barriers to entry to such a degree that basically anyone that can put two notes together can call themselves a “musician”.

Of the over 1,000,000 online “albums” available ( only about 20% have ever been listened to at all! ) Kind like all the flopped flips out there that can’t seem to find a buyer either?

Comment by InMontana
2009-07-23 08:11:55

The music bubble was in the 60s. Any kid who could play a couple chords on the guitar could make it with some luck, if his hair looked right and he got in with the right bunch of fellows. The record companies were screaming for new bands, new sounds, original songs to cater to the fickle Boomers.

There have been dozens of smaller bubbles since then but nothing like that.

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Comment by pressboardbox
2009-07-23 08:18:51

e.g. the monkees

 
Comment by Cowtown
2009-07-23 08:28:24

+1. When I was a kid living in a Chicago suburb a band called the Cryan Shames had a minor national hit (”Sugar and Spice”). They were the neighborhood garage band. I still hear that song on the radio every once in a blue moon.

Requisite HBB content: the neighborhood was a new subdivision built by Centex. We moved there in 1963. Our house was the least expensive model at $19,950, 3BR/1BA, single-car garage on about a quarter acre lot. Not sure what the square footage was.

 
Comment by DinOR
2009-07-23 08:49:48

InMontana,

Check out “garagehangover.com”

They are constantly unearthing “gems” from the past. Mostly “me too” clone bands that tried to cash in on the craze. But I’ll have to respectfully disagree.

There’s just no way ( numerically ) and prior to unfettered acces to the internet they could -begin- to compete with the proliferation of pulp we’re seeing today. In fact it’s hard to meet someone under 25 that -hasn’t- been “in a band”. It’s just so turn-key there’s absolutely no good reason ‘not’ to?

And there’s no “legacy” today whatsoever. Just rejecting everything that’s been previously recorded doesn’t necessarily constitute “music”.

 
Comment by lavi d
2009-07-23 09:21:08

if his hair looked right and he got in with the right bunch of fellows.

People see you havin’ fun, just a lyin’ in the sun.

 
Comment by cactus
2009-07-23 12:14:23

boomers and music but thats over long time ago I think it would be the second turning according to this theory
————————————————————
The First Turning is referred to by Howe as a High. As this follows a period of crisis, one of the hallmarks of a First Turning is a heightened sense of community and collective optimism, driven in part by the fact that the society has just come through a difficult and challenging time. Consequently, during First Turnings, societal institutions tend to be strong while individualism is weak. The post-World War II “High” of the mid-1940s through early ’60s is the most recent example of a First Turning.

The Second Turning, called an Awakening, typically starts out feeling like the high tide of a High, with signs of progress and prosperity everywhere. But just as everything seems to be going along swimmingly, large swaths of society begin to chaff under the social conformity of the High, beginning to gravitate to more individualistic pursuits and demanding that their personal interests come first. You may recognize the “Consciousness Revolution” of the mid-1960s through early 1980s, correctly, as the Second Turning.

Next up, the Third Turning, which Howe calls an Unraveling, is much the opposite of a High. To wit, individualism dominates, while institutions are increasingly weak and discredited. Quoting Howe on the Unraveling…

“This is a time when social authority feels inconsequential, the culture feels exhausted, and people feel bewildered by the number of options available to them. It is a time of celebrity circuses and a tremendous amount of freedom and creativity in our personal lives, but very little sense of public purpose.

The most recent Third Turning began in the mid-’80s with Morning in America, and continued through the ’90s. Previous periods of Unraveling in American history were also decades of cynicism and bad manners. Think of the 1920s, the 1850s, the 1760s. And history teaches us that the Third Turnings inevitably end in Fourth Turnings.

Finally, there is the Fourth Turning, called a Crisis. The recent Third Turning appears to be winding down, and we are currently on the cusp of a Fourth Turning. This is a time of great turmoil, when society’s basic institutions are torn down and rebuilt, and seemingly insurmountable problems are addressed. During Fourth Turnings, America engages in a struggle for its very survival and redefines its identity as a nation. Large wars are often a part of this process. The American Revolution, Civil War, Great Depression, and World War II were all features of past Fourth Turnings.

 
Comment by lavi d
2009-07-23 12:40:25

The First Turning is referred to by Howe as a High. As this follows a period of crisis

1920s, the 1850s, the 1760s

Very interesting. What were the “difficult and challenging times” which preceded these “Unravelings”?

In other words, wouldn’t a difficult and challenging time be more along the lines of the Civil War (1860’s if I remember my HS history) and the late 1770’s?

Nevertheless, thanks for posting that.

 
 
 
 
Comment by Northeastener
2009-07-23 09:02:17

Pinch, per your comments a couple of days ago regarding Southeastern Massachusetts home prices. I’m not seeing much in terms of prices drops on the mid-priced homes, say 400-600K in the more desirable locations. These are 2000-3000 sqft homes and have been built within the last 10 years, Colonials mostly.

I’m looking specifically in the towns of Westport, Dartmouth, Fairhaven, Mattapoisett, Acushnet, and Freetown. Prices are very sticky. There was a 3000sqft Colonial in Rochester that was on the market for over a year… came down in price from $585K last year to $385K last month, it just went under agreement. But that seems to be the exception rather than the norm. Most of the nicer homes are sticky at $425-475K… I’m waiting to see if unemployment and foreclosures over the next 6 months to a year force prices down to more affordable levels in these communities. Remains to be seen.

I will say in regards to afforability and median incomes, especially for MA, I mostly look at median income for the towns I’m interested in, not the state overall. The towns I’m looking at there is a bulge in income in the $75-100K (and above) group, but the median for the town might be $64K… because of the long tail of lower income (students, retirees, etc), the median isn’t a true representation of the SFH buyer for the town. My competition for houses with the amenities we’re looking for is in the $100K-200K income range, which means that $300-500K is probably affordable for them. This would help explain the stickiness inherent with the more desirable communities, as they are less likely to need to sell in a distressed market and/or have more resources to stave off selling.

I’m not sure how much lower prices will get, but it could be that I just have to accept paying more for housing in one of these communities because others continue to value it highly and have the incomes to support it… the macroeconomic environment may be putting pressure on incomes, but the reality is that many of the families I’m competing with for housing are older, with more assets accumulated than my family, even though we are competitve on an income basis. If they choose to allocate more of their assets/income today towards quality-of-life (aka housing), then my competitive advantage of higher savings (and lower quality-of-life) won’t be realized until retirement age 20 years from now. The saying “Markets can remain irrational longer than you can stay solvent” sort of applies here… in our case, our family of two adults, a 3yo and a 5yo, and two dogs can’t stay in a 2-bedroom apartment in our multifamily forever. The impact to our quality-of-life is too great. I give it another year or so and then we’ll make a move (as long as I’m still employed), regardless of the market conditions.

And congratulations on the coming addition to your family Pinch…

Link to income distributions for Dartmouth MA here

Comment by Anon In DC
2009-07-23 09:59:39

Be disiplined. Yes maybe an apartment is too small. But RENT a house. Pocket the savings between buying and renting. Save for the kids education or better yet, go on some memorable trips with the whole family. Or eat out once a week to save the trouble of shopping, cooking, and cleaning up or treat yourselves some otherway. Don’t ruin your finances for the deed to an overpriced pile of sticks and bricks. Disipline and patience will pay off.

Comment by Anon In DC
2009-07-23 10:17:23

If you never own so be it. More and more I am thinking I must be nuts to want to own again. The freedom of renting and the accumulating savings is great. Or you could buy an inexpensive vacation place. That could satisfy the phychologic need to own.

I do like to garden. I think a good one takes at least ten year to get established. So am thinking about maybe a small cabin in the country. All those deer better not even think of munching on my azelas, boxwood, and other plants !

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Comment by Olympiagal
2009-07-23 10:45:00

So am thinking about maybe a small cabin in the country.

Which is what I got. I love my garden, and a really good garden does take years. Well, you never really are done with a garden, it’s one of those ‘ It’s the journey, not the end point’ metaphor whossnames, but to get to the point where you are growing just basic fruits and vegetables and herbs can take awhile and requires close attention to your local conditions and soil types and stuff, and what you want to have happen. Maximum beauty and ease for minimum effort is MY goal. ‘Terroire’, baybee.
Either that or you’re just arguing with the reality of your place, which is stupid.

 
Comment by Olympiagal
2009-07-23 10:56:50

For instance, I live in rural Thurston county and I have a neighbor down the road, poor, poor, silly hermit-man, who spends HOURS fiddling with his lawn, mowing, and snipping, and fertilizing, and stalking moles, and yada yada. This is the forest, man! It wants to be a forest. Only a FOOL argues with reality, surely?
If you wanna live next to a ruler-edged vivid-green utterly weedless lawn edged with color-coded petunias and two 4′ tall trees from Home Depot—then go live in Lacey, fa Chrissakes!
It’s just crazy.
Oftentimes of a lovely summer evening or on weekends I will be swinging indolently in my hammock hanging between two giant hemlocks, brushing my feet on the plush viridian-green moss and I’ll hear, drifting through the trees, the sound of a far-away weed-whacker. Or I’ll take a bag of chips, my favorite knife and big bowl and a cutting board and wander out to my small backyard and flop myself down by the veggie beds and mince up a giant mound of salsa cruda from tomatoes warm from the vine, and basil, and green onions, or whatever else I can reach without getting up and I’ll sit and leisurely eat until I can’t move anymore, and you know what I’ll be hearing? Often as not the far-away sound of his lawn-mower, as he labors incessantly trying to turn the forest into a subdivision golf-course.
It makes me feel even more relaxed and smarter than ever. :)

And he’s not even winning! He’s only just p*issin’ off his part of the forest.

 
Comment by Arizona Slim
2009-07-23 11:11:22

My mother and father built a house in the Pennsylvania woods. That was back in 1966, I grew up in it, and they still live there.

Mom and Dad take a great deal of pride in how they care for their little corner of Penn’s Woods. They have an arborist come in twice a year to assess the health of the trees, and if need be, they remove the sick and dying trees.

The neighbors below them are a different story. The lady of the house decided that the interior of the house was too dark, so that meant the trees on the property had to go. My folks (and many of the neighbors) still haven’t forgiven them for that.

 
Comment by desertdweller
2009-07-23 11:21:58

HEY Oly gal and Ahansen…just sitting here reading, and I see a coyote slowly walk past my tiny patio..
thought it was a grungy dog, but noooooo.

This is the bits/buckets section so It thought I would inform you. Glad it wasn’t a bear, Ahansen. Hope you are doing much better.

 
Comment by lavi d
2009-07-23 12:07:07

This is the forest, man! It wants to be a forest.

Or it wants to be a garden?

 
Comment by speedingpullet
2009-07-23 16:09:53

LOL - Olygal - have you tried explaining the concept of Astroturf to him?
Or concrete-ing over the yard and painting it a grass-like green?

Sounds like he’d find it easier.

Then again, what would he do with all that spare time?
That kind of obstinacy takes real time and dedication

 
Comment by Watching the Carnage
2009-07-23 19:54:01

OlyGal,

Your post made my day! Thank you - I’ve got a neighbor that crawls up and down his driveway with SCISSORS after mowing to cut a perfect square edge.

Wack-job - hopefully losing his MD bayfront monstrosity. Four levels of stupidity wedged in between 1920 era beach cottages.

Post of the Day:

And he’s not even winning! He’s only just p*issin’ off his part of the forest.

 
 
Comment by desertdweller
2009-07-23 11:08:35

Rent a house ?
around here the cost of that is way more expensive than renting an apt, condo/or beat up townhouse all with 0 garage or just a carport. Unless you move downvalley.
So when we speak of renting more of a house than you could buy –not so much, but maybe its coming…

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Comment by varelse
2009-07-23 13:02:05

How much are you going to save renting a house vs buying though? It seems to me in my area that there is a significant jump in rental prices for houses vs apartments and that the housing rental prices even in not so good neighborhoods is at or above what you’d pay for a moderate 3br/2ba mortgage.

It may vary from region to region. Where I live though, renting an apartment makes sense even if it is too small, but if you’re going to rent a house, you might as well buy one, if lower payments is your motivation.

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Comment by Pinch-a-penny
2009-07-23 10:00:52

I would venture to ask you to be patient. MA is in a state of incredible denial, and remember that MA was not as involved in the subprime bubble as other states. Prices will come down, as soon as those with Alt-A’s (what I am seeing in the Attleboros) try to get out from under the yoke. I have a friend of a friend that just got hired to go and take a picture or 2 of foreclosed properties in and around Plymouth, and he told me that the list he got is several hundred long, with dozens more coming on each day. He also said that most of the houses were newer in the 300 to 500K range!…
So patience..

Comment by varelse
2009-07-23 13:04:42

As someone who lives in central MA I gotta agree with you. My wife has been putting pressure on me because she sees prices ticking up a little. I try to tell her it is seasonal and that year over year stats are more important than month over month, but she’s still getting antsy. Prices still have a ways to go yet before they reach a reasonable level though. Plus once they do reach the bottom, I think they’re going to stay there for a while.

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Comment by Silverback1011
2009-07-23 16:54:13

I could make you sick by telling you that our first house in East Brookfield, Ma (central MA for sure) was $35,900. Rte 1, Box 11, Harrington St. 1978.

 
 
Comment by not a gator
2009-07-23 14:52:05

Probably posting too late for anyone to see, but I just want to chime in that I was in Mass last month and from talks with people, Mass is only really starting to get some blowback from the recession. I talked to a guy in the newspaper biz and they are looking at layoffs, but considering the biz, that’s par for the course.

Mass is in much better shape than Florida (basket case) or I guess Manhattan (when the financial sector got whacked). It doesn’t surprise me that prices are pretty sticky.

However, there was some really sketchy loan activity in Mass during the subprime bubble. At the very least, sellers will have a hard time selling to new buyers at 2006 prices, I should think. They can’t get approved.

Oh, and I think state revenues are down which means gov’t cutbacks are coming, which will cause more of a pinch… otoh, biotech is doing awesome at present. Know a lot of people employed directly or indirectly in that industry. Pay is good to great. Kind of feel like a chump, but then again, I like my job and wouldn’t want to be locked in a windowless lab handling carcinogens and torturing mice. So on the balance, I’ll keep my job and cheap lifestyle.

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Comment by Pinch-a-penny
2009-07-23 10:14:19

Just another thought…
How much of those making 75-125K a year were involved in the REIC? Mortgage/RE brokers, Contractors, Plumbers, etc? In my town a disproportionate amount of GC’s live in the nicest parts of town. How much do you want to bet that those are the first ones to move silently in the night!

Comment by Northeastener
2009-07-23 12:20:58

How much of those making 75-125K a year were involved in the REIC

That’s a good question and one that I’ve considered. The income stats are based on census data which is a few years old. In general, incomes were much higher in REIC three years ago than today and many outside of REIC have taken a hit to income in the last few years. We know that many if not most did not save anything during the boom years. I think prices will continue to fall because of this, but I think I may also need to reset my expectations as to the cost of single-family housing in towns I want to live in. The costs of construction in eastern MA are just too high and I am done with the “starter home” fixer-upper mentality. I had hoped to see under $150/sqft on newer 2000 sq.ft. homes, but that may have been unrealistic in the towns we’re looking at.

Anecdotally, a family memeber by marriage is about to file personal bankruptcy. During the boom, he sold Whole-Life Insurance policies to clients as investments with proceeds from cash-back refi’s using Option-ARM’s. He made $200K+ a year doing this and basically spent every dollar he made on new furniture, clothes, cars and vacations. He also owns a tax preparation business which is down quite a bit year over year. His current income doesn’t cover his expenses so he will file bankruptcy and discharge the debt. He collects Social Security and has a paid-off house, so other then a hit to his credit and lower future consumption, nothing really changes. Why does Kenny Rogers’ “The Gambler” come to mind?

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Comment by Sleepr Cell
2009-07-23 09:50:59

Google “monoculture” and “catabolic collapse”

 
 
Comment by MrBubble
2009-07-23 05:29:27

Guten tag, buongiorno and bonjour to the HBB. Just got back from a whirlwind tour of Europe.

In the parlance of our times, I am selling Switzerland (dour faces and devoidofunk) and buying Italy (friendly people and a sense of joy). Lots of cranes in the mid size cities that I visited in Umbria and lots of crane stores (seriously) but not much work being done. Visited a wind farm and then boozed with the tutti matti locals who are totally fired up about their renewables and way more knowledgable wrt earth history and climate change than the average US barfly.

Not much to report from France and Germany other than the fact that their public transportation is great and that I was shocked and dismayed at all of the driving with high tolls and gas at 6 a gallonish.

What’s been going on here?

MrBubble

Comment by Stpn2me
2009-07-23 05:43:09

Actually,

You can keep Europe. My son was born in France while I was stationed in Belgium. I have been to 15 different nations, many of them I lived in.

There is nothing like the U.S., even with all our problems..

And I have YET to see a longer line at ANY airport in any nation than at an immigration in-processing station at a U.S. airport ANYWHERE in the world…

The grass isnt always greener…

Comment by joeyinCalif
2009-07-23 06:23:33

The grass isn’t always greener..
The grass isn’t always grass. You ever get tired of grass and long for a change in scenery?

Comment by Stpn2me
2009-07-23 07:00:02

LOL,

Bad analogy Joey,

I AM SURROUNDED BY ROCKS and sand!!!

God what I would give to see and walk barefoot in real grass right now…

BTW, there is grass here near some rivers, and poppy plants STINK!

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Comment by joeyinCalif
2009-07-23 07:07:05

heh… i just saw the nick and realized who i was talking to.. you gotta be homesick as all @$@%.. sorry i went there.

 
Comment by Stpn2me
2009-07-23 09:54:21

eh,

it’s ok….

I miss grass so much, I may buy 25 lots just to cut the grass!

I hate how houses are so close together. Me and the wife were thinking about looking at a house with empty lots beside it where the developer went bust. That way we could get some space between us…

 
Comment by sfbubblebuyer
2009-07-23 10:31:35

Stpn2me,

Go for it. My parents did that very thing. Bought an end lot and the one next to it so nobody could build a house anywhere close to them and built their house.

 
 
 
Comment by Arizona Slim
2009-07-23 08:50:34

Agreed, Stpn2me. I distinctly recall being VERY happy to get back to the U.S. after spending a college summer in Europe.

It wasn’t so much the food and water in Spain, which so didn’t agree with my digestive system, or seeing where some of my family emigrated from (and, within a day or two, completely understanding why they left). It was the fact that I was an American out of my element.

Not that I haven’t been in other countries since then, but this one still is my favorite. Even though it could be a better place.

Comment by not a gator
2009-07-23 15:05:48

I was happy for divergent reasons to go home from Germany and Czech Republic (in the first, the people are too uptight and stress you out; in the second, it’s one of those countries where you need to bring your own toilet paper, and every day you run the risk of randomly encountering some bitter old Party member who brings you down). However, I LOVED France. I’m not saying I wouldn’t miss home, but I could get used to France. The food is primo, the language is easy to read, even though my French sux everyone speaks English anyway, the weather is nice, lots of places to walk, public transit is nicely subsidized, culture (literature, art) is a point of national pride, and you don’t have to worry about things being below your level of comfort unless you go well into the countryside–and even then, I think folks are less xenophobic than in the US. It’s just, you have to realize that a 3-star “hotel” means shared bathrooms in the hall and it might be drafty too … yes, the US road-trip between AAA-approved inns is a far higher level of comfort than backpacking across Europe.

Heck, I stayed in some cheapo Microtel outside Savannah, GA 6 months ago and the place had free waffle breakfast and a cute little window seat in the room. I’ve been in so-called hotels (ark-Pay ace-Play in Boston) that weren’t that nice.

We are a wealthy country, and we have high standards. But, hey, I love France. It’s gorgeous.

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Comment by Giacomo
2009-07-23 08:59:12

Of course I love Italy, Mr. Bubble, but remember it is a place of fashion (and fads) and contradictions. Notice, there is passion for both bicycles AND Ferrari/F1.

Neither should you depend upon Italians to embrace innovations. They were quick to adopt cell phones (love of talking), but have been slow to get on board with computers, broadband, or speaking any language but their own.

Stai attento!

 
Comment by Olympiagal
2009-07-23 09:25:06

What’s been going on here?

Well, while you were gone I ate some tomatoes and had a good argument with a developer and I stared at trees sometimes.
I guess that’s it.
Oh, yeah, and this morning I ate half a cheesecake for breakfast. It was so good I decided to do that all the time henceforth.

Anyway, welcome back, Mr. Bubble! Did you show any cute Italian girls your fossil crabs? :)

and way more knowledgable wrt earth history and climate change than the average US barfly.

The other day I had the mailman sit there in his car and talk at me about how climate change is hooey while I stood there clutching my Netflix and a book from ebay in my hot little paws. I couldn’t even argue with him or mock him, because I didn’t want to anger him, lest in his wrath he’d decide to lose my mail even more than he already does. Yak, yak, yak…next time I see the mailcar traveling erratically down the lane I’m going to dart into the woods.

Comment by robiscrazy
2009-07-23 09:33:50

My mailman barely speaks English and is forever putting the neighbors mail, sometimes from blocks away, in my box.

I’ve resorted to re-delivering the letters myself on my bicycle. One was a birthday card from a Grandma. It’s so common that I ring my tiny bell on the handlebars and the kids come running screaming mail, mail, mail (ok, this last sentence is false).

 
Comment by Giacomo
2009-07-23 09:52:41

Mock your mailman if you will, but his skeptical attitude about “climate change” is held by many. The great majority of people (US and worldwide) will be demonstrating that they care much more about their own financial security than about incremental fluctuations in temperature or sea levels. The recession will work against environmental causes.

Comment by robiscrazy
2009-07-23 09:59:18

I just remember somewhere in my youth the scientific community was convinced we were getting colder and a new ice age was coming. It scared me after seeing a thing on PBS. I thought I was going to have to live in an Igloo.

Anyone else remember the coming Ice Age in the early 80’s? What happened?

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Comment by Michael Viking
2009-07-23 10:16:05

I remember, although I recall it as being more in the 70s. It got replaced with global warming, and now global change.

 
Comment by Giacomo
2009-07-23 10:23:22

I remember, I believe it was early 70’s. It was quite the rage in the environmental movement. Mass starvation and wars over food/farmland were predicted, and naturally, naysayers were mocked for their denial of the situation.

 
Comment by Giacomo
2009-07-23 10:27:04

I remember also being given the idea (by left-leaning docudramas), circa 1984, that nuclear war was imminent; this prompted me to buy an expensive, powerful car, because — what the hell, might as well have some fun.

 
Comment by robiscrazy
2009-07-23 10:43:39

70’s eh. Guess I’m older than I thought. Reminds me of a line in the movie 12 Monkeys…”Science ain’t an exact science with these bozos.”

Gotta keep us lemmings in fear of something at all times.

Glad to hear you got the big car and made the best of it.

 
Comment by warlock
2009-07-23 12:23:30

In the 1970’s they figured out we were getting towards the end of an interglacial period. But the best theories at that time said that glacial onset and exit were gradual, 1000’s of years processes. So nothing to worry about.

In the 1990’s, they dug up the Greenland Ice cores and discovered that the glacial/interglacial transitions could occur within a century. They also noticed that temperatures were rising, and global warming was clearly occurring. (yes, really, it is.)

then a couple of bright sparks pointed out mechanisms whereby a warming tendency could potentially trigger an ice age - assuming the planet was coming towards the end of the inter-glacial period. (determined by axial inclination, and the physical position of the continents)

Responsible scientists started to use the term climate change.

Irresponsible scientists desperately resisted the temptation to write papers titled ‘How I learnt to stop worrying and love global warming.’

– w

 
Comment by Giacomo
2009-07-23 12:41:36

“Responsible scientists started to use the term climate change.”

And how perfectly crafted a term it is. It allows for anyone’s complaints about the weather to be directed into a condemnation of some political or economic group.

Skepticism (which is not the same as denial, look it up if you’re confused) is always a healthy position. Politicians seek votes. Competing industries seek advantage. Scientists seek funding.

 
Comment by not a gator
2009-07-23 15:25:38

Too right, warlock. I saw some talks where they presented theories about rapid cooling. Turns out from the ice cores that once the system becomes unstable, rapid, violent swings in global mean temperatures are possible.

The problem with the GW “debate” is that it is being held by the misinformed; touchy-feely alarmist types who don’t know the science versus self-titled skeptics who don’t bother looking at the science because they “just know” that they’re right.

A real skeptic would actually delve into the science and mathematics of climatology, but, *gasp*, that would require hours of work and some actual thinking.

My father is a climate scientist (he’s a geophysicist) so I grew up around the AGW debate of the 1980’s. At the time there was a severe controversy within scientific circles, NOT about whether the GMT was rising (it is), NOT about whether CO2 levels (been rising since beginning of Industrial Revolution), NOT whether CO2 causes a greenhouse effect, no, but TO WHAT DEGREE human activity was contributing to global climate change. In the past thirty years, scientists (using bigger and better processors to run their models and some really awesome satellite data) have learned a lot more about global weather patterns (like el Nino) and how our climate works. Today, there’s very little debate about AGW in the scientific community because they have models that actually work now.

It took so long because the weather system is a chaotic system. That required a new branch of mathematics and a lot of new algorithms and a geometric increase in computing power to be able to model in any meaningful way. That wouldn’t have been possible in the 1970’s.

It’s a shame that some perhaps well-meaning but poorly informed people once spread doom-and-gloom about ‘the coming ice age’. Most scientists did not take this seriously, but most scientists (aside from Carl Sagan) didn’t bother to engage the media. It might help to point out here that there used to be a number of astronomical theories (hypotheses, really) of what caused ice ages which have been shown wrong in the intervening years.

But as for the 80’s doom and gloom, I was there, and I distinctly remember the prediction that NYC was going to be inundated. So far, only little, powerless islands in the Pacific are getting inundated, but we have seen what seemed almost unthinkable when I was a child: the retreat of massive glacier blocks and thinning of ice sheets. H2O has a very high specific heat. That’s a LOT of energy in the system. You’d better believe that’s going to send something nasty someone’s way. 0.74C and our surface is 2/3 salt water. Uh-huh.

 
Comment by Giacomo
2009-07-23 16:01:14

“A real skeptic would actually delve into the science and mathematics of climatology, but, *gasp*, that would require hours of work and some actual thinking.”

Funny how people who’ve made up their minds can always judge how much thinking is “enough” for everyone else. Somehow when the other guy doesn’t agree with you, HE needs to do more homework.

 
Comment by MrBubble
2009-07-23 17:15:52

Not a Gator –

Thanks for that post. It seems far less antagonistic that my usual AGW screeds!

Also, don’t forget the > 0.5 C carryover even if we stopped pumping out CO2 today.

MrBubble

 
Comment by Giacomo
2009-07-23 17:33:14

And as we’ve seen with the Housing Bubble, the experts with the most impressive credentials and the greatest media presence always turn out to be right, and independent thinkers who question the “consensus” always end up looking like fools.

hey, wait a minute…

 
Comment by ahansen
2009-07-23 23:37:20

THAT was a wonderful post, Gator. Thank you!

 
 
 
Comment by Anon In DC
2009-07-23 10:02:37

Oh, yeah, and this morning I ate half a cheesecake for breakfast. It was so good I decided to do that all the time henceforth.

Better: It was so good I decided to eat the other half immediately. :)

Comment by Olympiagal
2009-07-23 10:58:26

Better: It was so good I decided to eat the other half immediately. :)

Hahah, that IS better. :)
But I couldn’t eat the other half, because I already had, the night before.

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Comment by desertdweller
2009-07-23 11:23:52

Oly, a coyote coulda had me for mid morning bkfst..different critters here than what you have. He just sauntered past my patio in the “greenbelt”.

 
 
 
Comment by speedingpullet
2009-07-23 16:17:10

Let me guess - he was regaling you with “Its all a Lie” stories, while leaning out the window of his truck, with the engine running the whole time….?

No one like the Ironically Challenged to call a Spade an Aardvark…..

 
Comment by MrBubble
2009-07-23 16:49:03

“Did you show any cute Italian girls your fossil crabs?”

Oh Oly, you under-misunderrate my sauvity. And I prefer the frauleins to the signorinas. Not a case of sour uvas. Just the way I roll. My new Aussie sweetheart would probably cut out my heart if I were to do any of all that anyway. Did see a spectacular walls of ammonites outside of Digne Les Bains and the K/T boundary (and Eocene/Oligocene boundary) in Italy though. Presecco on a hot day eases the pain of thoughts of extinction (see also Anthropocene extinction).

I feel your pain at having to listen to those CCDCs (climate change denying clowns) as well. My tomatoes are cool kicking ass down in Palo Alto. Yes!

MrBubble

 
 
 
Comment by jeff saturday
2009-07-23 05:54:18

Ouch!
12246 Banyan Rd Sea Acres Single Family $10,000,000 Jun 09 $21,620,000 Oct 01 Property tax $372,502.62
Sq. ft. 24,532
Year Built 1997
Zip 33408

Comment by pressboardbox
2009-07-23 08:23:18

Over $1 thousand a day for tax. Nice!

 
 
Comment by Blano
2009-07-23 06:04:35

Recession puts wealthy Detroit suburbs, the Pointes, within reach, sort of.

“If you have the money, spend it now before it’s too late to get in.” Sheesh.

Check out the “point system” that was used there. And the video is kinda cute in spots.

http://www.detnews.com/article/20090723/METRO08/907230388/1439/METRO08/Recession-puts-Grosse-Pointes–high-end-homes-in-reach

Comment by jeff saturday
2009-07-23 06:42:56

“In the Pointes traditionally, a lot of people live in their homes and die in their homes,” says Rogers, who has spent her entire life in the Pointes. “Now with the economy and all, many people are dying to sell their homes.”

says Rogers
They`re dying in this neighborhood,
I`m dying for a neighbor.
Would you be mine?
Could you be mine?…

I’ve always wanted to have a neighbor just like you.
I’ve always wanted to live in a neighborhood with you.

So, let’s make the most of this beautiful day.
Get that corpse out of the way.
Would you be mine?
Could you be mine?
Won’t you be my neighbor?
Won’t you breathe,
Won’t you please?
Please won’t you be my neighbor?

Comment by Blano
2009-07-23 06:48:16

Before becoming a realtor, 25 years as a hairdresser.

Comment by Al
2009-07-23 07:21:02

Excellent training for being a realtor. Giving a haircut, or helping people take one.

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Comment by Olympiagal
2009-07-23 09:26:24

Hahahaha!

 
Comment by Silverback1011
2009-07-23 17:09:28

Well, I can say with great happiness and certainty that I drove down that very street two weeks ago following my dad after my husband & I went out to sit on his boat (which he is sadly too old to take out much anymore) and watch the Gold Cup races on the Detroit River. We drove past several massive homes for sale, and wound up eating dinner with him in Grosse Pointe Something-or-Other at a neat little restaurant called Lucy’sTavern on the Hill. First of all, let me say, that lady has some kind of major speech impediment. The only thing that she said that sounded “Michigan” to me was “that’s for certin”. Secondly, you can get some major deals in the Pointes, as they’re called. Probably better than hers. Thirdly, you don’t have to be a member of a yacht club to berth your boat on Lake St. Clair or the Detroit River. Just rent a slip at a marina. And fourth, a lot of homeowners there who are trapped and trying to sell their places wouldn’t care if the buyers were from Mars, as long as they paid in cash. Just sayin’. You can get a nice foreclosure in the Pointes for in the $ 250,000’s and up, and probably for less if you look around. This would be the equivalent of $ 1.5m in CA. Lower taxes, too.

 
 
 
Comment by alpha-sloth
2009-07-23 07:28:48

“many people are dying to sell their homes”

Hey, whatever works.

Comment by Olympiagal
2009-07-23 09:31:37

More ‘Hahahaahah’s’!

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Comment by goirishgohoosiers
2009-07-23 08:02:49

A version of the point system snobbery persisted there until relatively recently. In college during the mid 80s, I dated someone from GPS and was eventually told by her parents, in so many words, that I didn’t quite make the social cut despite my attendance at the same private college as their princess.

Being of Irish and Slovak ancestry, I’m not quite sure where I scored on the scale, although it had to be low. Perhaps I should call up Ms. Grosse Pointe Realtor Queen and ask.

Comment by Arizona Slim
2009-07-23 09:01:16

Back in the late 1970s, I spent a college holiday visiting a friend who lived outside of Detroit.

One day, we decided to take a drive into the city to see the sights. Since I had designs on being a photojournalist, I took the camera with me and shot an essay on declining Detroit. Still have the pictures, and they’re still quite disturbing.

My friend and I visited a lady (who was a friend of my friend) in the neonate ward where she worked. Even then, premature birth was a huge problem in Detroit, and, oh, were some of those babies tiny. You could have held some of them in the palm of your hand.

On to Grosse Pointe, where one of our housemates lived. We thought we had the correct address, but, as we found out after going up to the wrong house, we were off by one.

Knocking on the door of Wrong House was quite an experience. I don’t recall if it was me or my friend asking if it was the Ward residence. “No,” said the uniformed maid, “This is the John B. Ford residence.”

Wouldn’t you know it, the Wards lived right next door. And, as our housemate noted, the Wards and the Fords never spoke to each other.

In addition to every room in their house looking like it had just been photographed for some decorator showcase, our housemate’s family really got our attention. And not in a good way.

What really bopped me over the head was our housemate’s grandmother’s reaction to my friend. She was Jewish, and the grandmother said, “Oh, Jew,” like that was a bad thing. I also recall the housemate’s family saying that their ancestors were slaveholders in Virginia.

After that, my friend and I never looked at our housemate the same way again.

Comment by robiscrazy
2009-07-23 09:26:12

Holy bovine! What a great story.

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Comment by goirishgohoosiers
2009-07-23 10:50:28

Oh, but there’s more. At least you didn’t get hassled by the cops. On one visit, I was sitting in my car, just talking to GF. No loud music, no smoke, just talking. GPS cop pulls up behind, lights me up, and knocks on the window of my car. He asked whether I was from there when obviously I was not since my car had an out of state license plate.

Twenty year old Go Irish wanted to smart off and say something like, “Can’t you read my license plate, you moron?”, or “Don’t you have any CRIME to be investigating?” but I had a rare moment of rationality and answered him straight. He then asked GF whether she was in my car against her will. At that point, I started laughing and GPS cop did not share my sense of the absurd concerning this situation. GF stated that she lived in the house in front of which I was parked, and that she did not feel herself to be in any danger which was probably the only thing that kept me from being dragged off. The moral to this story being that if you ain’t from there, you’ve got no business being there.

I’m sure the residents quite like it that way.

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Comment by rms
2009-07-23 11:29:56

Arizona Slim, from yesterday…

“What should I be on the lookout for, in terms of a change in the mortgage holder?”

A co-worker had a mortgage with WaMu with an automatic deduction. The mortgage was sold to another company, but WaMu continued to withdraw the funds; the new mortgage company had mailed a coupon booklet. It took several months to straighten things out, and a “record of late payment” was recorded during the confusion.

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Comment by Arizona Slim
2009-07-23 12:01:09

Was your co-worker able to get the “record of late payment” removed?

 
Comment by rms
2009-07-23 23:49:02

“Was your co-worker able to get the “record of late payment” removed?”

Not yet. I told him to pay the new mortgage servicer since he could easily afford it, but he was stubborn.

 
 
 
 
Comment by robiscrazy
2009-07-23 09:12:15

The video is classic. It should be a training film for Realtor speak. Check out some of the catchy lines:

“This is the American dream…..”

“That’s like, I mean like a lot of money off…..” (talking about the $2.2 million price vs. the previous high of $3.5-4m)

“It’s a great time to buy”

“We have granite over here, we have a high end sub zero refrigerator over here, what a great kitchen. The woman’s American dream.” (maybe the man cooks and it’s HIS dream?)

Can’t believe the interviewer dropped the racial question on her. That woman is gawd awful and a product of a bygone era.

Comment by Blano
2009-07-23 09:39:37

“Can’t believe the interviewer dropped the racial question on her.”

Charlie tends to be a bit on the sarcastic and wacky side along with being entertaining in his reporting. Kinda like a local “Colbert Report” interviewer. It took a couple emails back and forth with him earlier this year to figure that out. He apparently likes to generate that “you can’t be serious” thinking. Thus the racial question, but his question absolutely has a basis in truth. I laughed at how she stumbled over it.

As far as the chick, how she sells anything I have no idea. Does a poor Vanna White impersonation and that voice leaves something to be desired.

Comment by robiscrazy
2009-07-23 09:55:37

Yeah, her stumble implied to me she was either caught off guard or wanted to say “yes, we don’t like people of color, low economic status, or low social status..” but refrained.

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Comment by alpha-sloth
2009-07-23 09:39:03

It’s almost fascinating how much that video seems a product of the 70’s. The music, the cutaways, the people- it’s amazingly retro. And I’m sure they didn’t mean it to be.

 
Comment by desertdweller
2009-07-23 11:34:21

“laundry on the clothes line.”

I’m out.

 
 
Comment by sleepless_near_seattle
2009-07-23 06:23:00

Is Dean Graziosi really doing all these ’sweet deals’ as is implied in this infomercial currently on in my hotel room or is he making money by writing books?

BTW, we’re at bottom according to him. Oh, and rental income is “going straight up.”

Seen at the bottom of the screen in really small print: “Some students may have purchased optional support programs. Results not typical.”

Comment by Blano
2009-07-23 06:29:52

Dean has been doing infomercials for years. IMHO whatever he pushes is a total scam.

Originally it was making money putting putting classified ads for 900 numbers in newspapers, then it was buying and selling car titles. May have been something else too.

Then suddenly he was the all time No. 1 RE guru. He was pushing the same RE product before the bubble collapse. The small print pretty much says it all. Buyer beware, big time.

 
Comment by pressboardbox
2009-07-23 06:31:46

He also says to buy as many properties as you can get. Ten or more if possible. And… you can walk away from closing with money in your pocket! 2005 here we come!

 
Comment by joeyinCalif
2009-07-23 06:45:03

The amazing thing to me is that the pitch is utterly transparent.. the presenters suck as salesmen.. and yet so many people fall for it.
If only I had a criminal bent, the world would be my oyster.

Comment by SanFranciscoBayAreaGal
2009-07-23 10:05:05

You do have a bit of devil inside of you joey ;)

Comment by joeyinCalif
2009-07-23 10:37:46

If there’s any devil in me it’s handcuffed and shackled by the belief that what goes around comes around.. :(

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Comment by edgewaterjohn
2009-07-23 07:02:43

What is in an “optional support program”? A jar of Vaseline?

Comment by Blano
2009-07-23 07:06:49

Lol you better have a case of the stuff if you’re gonna buy his stuff and put up with the endless phone calls for mentor programs.

 
 
Comment by Arizona Slim
2009-07-23 09:04:11

Here’s a hot-off-the-press story from the Arizona Slim File: Was making breakfast this morn, and I saw a repair truck at the neighbor to the north’s. This property belongs to one of those real estate investor types, and uh-oh, looks like the tenant’s having a problem with the air conditioner.

Not good. That can really get pricey.

And that investor has already been dinged for a May ‘09 water line replacement — his line was leaking worse than mine was.

Methinks that his ‘09 profit margin’s going to get a haircut. If it hasn’t already.

Comment by robiscrazy
2009-07-23 09:49:28

That reminds me, I’ve got to head over to Great Clips to lower my ears today.

The one young lady who I always try to get loves to chat. Last time she told me about her dad’s rental properties and how she helps him clean up when a unit goes vacant. Seems she’s been very busy lately helping pops. Oh, and the last tenant of one trashed the place. Nice.

 
Comment by lavi d
2009-07-23 10:06:12

looks like the tenant’s having a problem with the air conditioner.

AC? I thought it was all swamp cooler in your neck of the woods…

Comment by Arizona Slim
2009-07-23 11:06:00

I have a swamp cooler. A MasterCool which has worked like a champ since I had it installed four years ago.

During the heat of the day, I run the cooler. At night, I shut off the water supply to the cooler and just run the fan. Works for me.

OTOH, the neighbor to the north’s house has an AC/heating unit on the roof. During the summer, that thing runs constantly, which means that the neighbor (who is renting) has an electric bill that rivals the national debt.

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Comment by lavi d
2009-07-23 12:10:40

I have a swamp cooler. A MasterCool which has worked like a champ since I had it installed four years ago.

I am (was) a Tradewinds man, myself.

:)

 
 
Comment by desertdweller
2009-07-23 11:37:26

Works fine until the humidity goes up past, what is it 50%, then it is ac for sure.

Thanks Slim for the recommendation for brand.

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Comment by Arizona Slim
2009-07-23 14:59:37

You’re welcome!

I was just taking a break from one of those photographic projects that is taking for-freaking-ever to finish. And, for some reason, walking around the house seems to have quite a lowering effect on my frustration level.

I cracked the kitchen blinds, and what should I see but another tradesman’s truck at the house just to the north of this one. It wasn’t the same trades-truck that was there this morning.

Something tells me that some whoppin’ big bills are headed in the direction of the investor/owner of the property. He’s one of those University of Arizona students who picked up a real estate license while he was in school.

When graduation time came, he attempted to flip the property. And failed. It’s been rental for a couple of years, and I’ve had zero problems with his tenants.

But, a few months ago, the neighborhood grapevine told me that he was delinquent on his property taxes. And then came the water line. As mentioned above, he had to replace his old line in May.

Something tells me that this fella’s getting a lesson in how difficult it is to get rich in real estate.

 
 
 
 
 
Comment by aNYCdj
2009-07-23 06:31:26

Way OT my dj partner and her husband who worked at cnn, were invited to attend Walter Cronkite’s Funeral today. She was his office manager for a few years.

Comment by packman
2009-07-23 07:01:57

Awesome! We’ll expect a full report. At 6:30 of course.

 
Comment by joeyinCalif
2009-07-23 07:11:58

go crash the funeral.. bring a hidden camera and a mic..

Comment by milkcrate
2009-07-23 12:36:00

“And that’s the way it was… Thursday… July 23.” :)

 
 
 
Comment by wmbz
2009-07-23 06:43:45

Good news is that, this will be a jobless recovery according to the PTB.

U.S. Initial Jobless Claims Rise by 30,000 to 554,000 (Update1)

July 23 (Bloomberg) — The number of Americans filing claims for unemployment benefits jumped last week from a six- month low as distortions caused by shifts in the timing of auto- plant shutdowns subsided.

Applications rose by 30,000 to 554,000 in the week ended July 18, in line with forecasts, figures from the Labor Department showed today in Washington. Claims had fallen by 93,000 over the previous two weeks. The number of people collecting unemployment insurance decreased to the lowest level in three months, also reflecting seasonal issues surrounding closures at carmakers.

“The numbers have come down but they still have a ways to go down before the bleeding of jobs is over,” said Andrew Gretzinger, a senior economist at MFC Global Investment Management in Toronto, who had forecast 555,000 claims. “The labor market is still weak and is going to remain that for some time to come.”

Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke this week said unemployment was the “most pressing issue” facing policy makers aiming to stem the worst recession in five decades. The loss of jobs threatens to undermine consumer spending and represents a “downside risk” to the economy, he said. An analyst at Labor said claims will probably remain volatile for another week.

Economists forecast claims would increase to 557,000 from a previously reported 522,000 for the prior week, according to the median of 44 projections in a Bloomberg News survey. Estimates ranged from 500,000 to 600,000.

Comment by edgewaterjohn
2009-07-23 06:58:24

Ya have to love the way they try their darnest to imply that everyone who has left the rolls has somehow slid back into a job -presumably one that pays as well or better as their previous gig.

I mean that is what’s happening right? The rolls are declining because folks are jumping right back into good paying jobs? Right?…Right?

 
Comment by sleepless_near_seattle
2009-07-23 07:05:02

Am I wrong, or was there a time when this was seen as bad news? It’s not even the headline story on several finance sites. And the market is up 69 on the news.

Comment by joeyinCalif
2009-07-23 07:19:51

its weird..
The way i figure it, the only news that’s considered “bad” is uncertainty. Like if they said “Nobody has any idea what next month’s unemployment figures will look like.”
That’s definitely bad news.

 
Comment by potential buyer
2009-07-23 10:43:51

The market is up on housing news - sales are up for 3 months in a row.

Comment by Arizona Slim
2009-07-23 11:12:53

Could this be because (gasp!) house prices are coming down? Nothing helps to clear a market (where supply and demand aren’t in equilibrium) like lower prices.

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Comment by potential buyer
2009-07-23 12:37:25

Try explaining that to the NAR.;-)

 
 
Comment by joeyinCalif
2009-07-23 11:16:29

Does that imply the market is unaware that inventory is steadily increasing and the increase is not offset by a few sales?
maybe.. The market has ignored basic, boring fundamentals like supply and demand plenty of times before..

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Comment by james
2009-07-23 11:10:53

For stocks, if companies have offloaded unnecessary employees it is good news.

For us woiking stiffs, not so much.

 
 
Comment by Arizona Slim
2009-07-23 09:05:36

I seem to recall that the recoveries from our last two recessions were of the jobless sort.

 
Comment by BanteringBear
2009-07-23 11:11:18

“Good news is that, this will be a jobless recovery according to the PTB.”

Will be? We’re already there. Stock market,oil, everything to the moon!!

 
 
Comment by wmbz
2009-07-23 06:46:52

“Need a job? Move to North Dakota. In May, the state tied for the lowest unemployment rate in the nation — a mere 4.4% — and added 3,000 jobs over the past month.”

– CNN, June 24, 2009

Comment by edgewaterjohn
2009-07-23 07:00:28

Well, that marks the peak for ND.

Comment by packman
2009-07-23 07:05:58

ND received the second-highest stimulus money per capita, behind Alaska.

Comment by packman
2009-07-23 07:10:22

P.S. there may not necessarily be a direct relationship - ND also doesn’t have much manufacturing or tourism, and is just not the most desirable place to live - and as such were probably the least effected by the 1997-2006 bubble economy, and thus also least effected by the bubble popping.. That’s probably the biggest factor.

Nebraska, Iowa, etc. have similar characteristics, and likewise have relatively low unemployment.

People gotta eat.

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Comment by Arizona Slim
2009-07-23 09:08:45

I can recall bicycle touring through North Dakota in 1987. The largest town I rode through was Mamarnth, which was well on its way to becoming a ghost town.

Mind you, I only spent part of a day in ND — I was focused on getting into Montana ahead of some stormy weather. But I remember that it was big, silent country with very little human presence.

 
Comment by Silverback1011
2009-07-23 09:33:59

I just looked up some pictures of Manmarnth. A very “busy” place indeed. The ruins of the “Barber Theater” (looks like an opera house of some sort ) are open to the weather, and I could actually hear the grass growning in the picture of their city park ( “Marmarth City Park (below): a relaxing place to picnic or camp.
Rest rooms and water taps available.
Second Avenue West at Fourth Street South. ” )

I’d probably like it there.

 
 
Comment by scdave
2009-07-23 08:46:17

Isn’t ND a big Natural Gas producer ??…Any state who produces NG or Oil is doing quite well…The transfer of wealth that occurred when oil was at $140. per barrel was “massive”…Even now with energy pulling way back those states are still riding the wave of “reserves” created by that transfer…Alaska has a 26 billion dollar reserve I believe…

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Comment by lavi d
2009-07-23 10:58:11

Alaska has a 26 billion dollar reserve I believe…

Hm. Alaska +$26B, Californa -$26B.

Perhaps we can make a trade of some sort?

 
Comment by scdave
2009-07-23 11:47:15

Perhaps we can make a trade of some sort ?

You gotta a deal….They get the terminator and I get Sarah :)

 
Comment by speedingpullet
2009-07-23 16:36:48

Better hurry - word is she’s already packing up stuff at the Governor’s Mansion….

 
Comment by Silverback1011
2009-07-23 17:18:32

Isn’t she known as the “Governor Lady” ?

 
 
 
 
Comment by jeff saturday
2009-07-23 07:04:20

Thanks, but no thaks.

North Dakota Weather: Temperatures Hit a Record-Breaking -44 Degrees in Bismarck

January 15, 2009 by Heather K. Adams

North Dakota’s Cold Spell Expected to Snap Tomorrow
According to the National Weather Service, Bismarck, North Dakota, broke a 38-year record for low temperatures today. This morning at 7:34 a.m., the temperature at the Bismarck Airport was -44 degrees, breaking the -36 degree record set January 15, 1971. The lowest temperature Bismarck

United States of America has ever seen was -45 degrees, set February 16, 1936. These figures reflect the actual air temperature; they do not factor in wind chill temperatures.

As of noon today, the temperature in Bismarck warmed up to -21 degrees, with wind chills dropping the temperature to -41.

All week long, North Dakotans have been facing the worst winter temperatures we have seen in a very long time. With temperatures consistently below zero, North Dakotans are struggling to keep their homes and businesses heated. Vehicles are refusing to start, even with block heaters plugged in.

Comment by joeyinCalif
2009-07-23 07:28:55

-44… meaning it needs to rise about 150 degrees before i’d be comfortable.

there was a little blurb on Drudge about algore’s hometown hitting an all time record low..

 
Comment by InMontana
2009-07-23 08:18:28

we used to get that here in western MT. Tell ya it’s worth it - no rats, no cockroaches, no termites, no riffraff.

Comment by scdave
2009-07-23 08:49:25

no rats, no cockroaches, no termites,
no riffraff ??

Thats why I visit often…I will pass on the winters though :)

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Comment by yensoy
2009-07-23 08:51:04

No Realtors?

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Comment by DinOR
2009-07-23 08:59:03

“And all for ‘what’? A little bit of money? And it’s a beautiful day…”

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Comment by robiscrazy
2009-07-23 10:08:34

hehe…

Right after she found him shoving the remains of his accomplice in the wood chipper.

 
 
Comment by sfbubblebuyer
2009-07-23 10:53:09

I loved that about Montana, too. You didn’t see homeless people there, the bugs were small and inoffensive, and all the varmits were of the burrowing type, not the infesting types.

I do remember a morning so cold I could spit and it would freeze before hitting the sidewalk. I miss it still. Married a Californian with poor circulation (we discovered it in Wisconsin when her fingers stopped getting blood on cold days) and so I’m relegated to warmish country or I’d try and convince her to move back there with me. :D

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Comment by hwy50ina49dodge
2009-07-23 07:26:31

Here’s what I know about “The North Dakota” after living there once…if you go to the top of the bridge that crosses the Red River of the North in Grand Forks over to Minnesota…you can see the Amish building a non-gov’t authorized animal barn in Bismarck…200 miles away. :-)

 
 
Comment by wmbz
2009-07-23 07:10:46

Brenda Butt-ner was just reporting how great this news was. Of course she left out the fact that their sales were well down. Those facts don’t matter I guess. Green shoots all around, forget the brown squirts!

Ford Motor Co. posts surprise $2.3B 2Q profit on debt reduction and cost cuts
DEARBORN, Michigan (AP) — Helped by a lightened debt load, Ford Motor Co. posted a surprise second-quarter profit of $2.8 billion Thursday, following the worst loss in company history a year earlier. Shares rose more than 6 percent in morning trading.

The net profit ends a string of four straight quarterly losses for the second-largest U.S. automaker, which has gained market share at the expense of crosstown rivals Chrysler Group LLC and General Motors Co., both of which spent time under bankruptcy court supervision. Ford last went into the black in the first quarter of 2008, with net profit of $70 million.

However, excluding its debt reduction and other items, Dearborn, Michigan-based Ford would have reported a quarterly loss, though smaller than Wall Street expected.

Chief Financial Officer Lewis Booth said the improved second-quarter results are a sign that the company’s cost cuts and emphasis on new products are paying off. He stuck to Ford’s earlier prediction that it would return to annual profitability in 2011.

“We’re 18 months away, I guess,” he told reporters on Thursday, adding that a full year of profitability hinges on improved auto sales in the U.S. and Europe.

Comment by sleepless_near_seattle
2009-07-23 07:25:17

This market seems to be more forward looking than most. It’s like instead of looking 6 months ahead. I mean, what year to you have to look to for good news? 2015?

 
Comment by Julius
2009-07-23 08:43:43

Look closely at Ford’s balance sheet. There was actually an operating loss of $424m and a “cash burn” of more than $1b in Q2.

Comment by Al
2009-07-23 08:55:09

Cash flow statements are where it’s at today. Profits mean nothing.

Comment by DinOR
2009-07-23 09:00:50

?

At least Ford still has their original Ticker Symbol!

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Comment by Al
2009-07-23 09:54:22

Is the ? a request to explain?

 
Comment by Al
2009-07-23 10:21:10

From MSN’s market dispatches

“Ford this morning reported an unexpected second-quarter profit of $2.8 billion, due to accounting gains related to its debt reduction.”

“Ford’s auto operations burned through $1 billion in the period…”

From Yahoo finance (end 2008 balance sheet):
Cash and equivalents: $22B
Accounts payable: $78B

They don’t need paper gains, they need money.

 
 
 
 
 
Comment by WT Economist
2009-07-23 07:25:36

Question for the knowledgable: some here have made it sound pretty easy to get the equivalent of a money market or CD in a foreign currency. But I found that even international banks with branches in foreign countries didn’t offer that service.

Someone suggested Everbank. I checked out their site, and sure enough they do allow people to open bank accounts in other currencies WITH FDIC INSURANCE?!

How is that possible? Isn’t the money in another currency in another country?

Or is your Everbank bank account really in dollars in the U.S., with Everbank itself taking the other position in a foreign currency trade? In the latter case, don’t you have big counterparty risk with Everbank, which may not be able to pay if the dollar really tanked? And wouldn’t the FDIC just give you back the dollars you actually held?

How do they do this?

Comment by joeyinCalif
2009-07-23 07:57:33

The World Markets division of EverBank originated as a department of Mark Twain Bank, a small St. Louis, Missouri bank, that founded the WorldCurrency(sm) service in 1986. In April 1997 Mark Twain Bank was acquired by Mercantile Bank. EverBank acquired the world currency division from Mercantile Bank in April 1999. EverBank World Markets is still located in Brentwood, Missouri, a St. Louis suburb and provides certificate of deposit (CD) accounts in euros and other non–U.S. dollar currencies.

clipped from the Wiki page..

They do have a foothold in Europe. They can mess around over there. We can’t afaik.. so i think you’re right. Technically, your money stays here in the US as dollars, which is why it’s FDIC insured.

Comment by DinOR
2009-07-23 09:03:10

I believe Peter Schiff will make the proper arrangements for you. In the currency of your choosing I recall.

Comment by joeyinCalif
2009-07-23 09:41:16

Banks love CD’s. It allows them a wider choice of ways to invest the money as well as requiring a lower reserve quota compared to simple deposits.

Telling a customer it’s being invested in Euros or Yen is a good selling point.. but what’s the difference? The CD pays some percentage of whatever you originally bought. No matter what currency it’s denominated in, return is a percentage and has nothing to do with changes in exchange rates. 100 euros is 100 euros. A 5% return gets you 5 euros.

The only way a “euro-CD” could be worth more than the equivalent dollar-CD is if the dollar completely collapsed and it couldn’t be redeemed.

…or am i missing something?

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Comment by joeyinCalif
2009-07-23 10:33:28

i see the flaw in my logic..

Assuming it’s a 6 month CD, 6 months from now a euro might be worth more (or less) than it’s exchange in dollars due to exchange rates.

so buying a CD denominated in euros is just like buying euro futures..

 
 
 
Comment by Professor Bear
2009-07-23 09:57:09

Come to think of it, I am not sure what FDIC ‘insurance’ on a foreign currency account even covers. If your $US value of your foreign currency bet is off by 25 pct, then I am pretty sure the FDIC is not going to make up the shortfall. On the other hand, if for some reason Everbank ever failed, I am guessing the FDIC would be good for the current $US value of your foreign currency account (at least up to the current FDIC insurance limit).

Does that sound about right?

Comment by joeyinCalif
2009-07-23 10:16:40

i searched for any connection between “FDIC” and “euro” and found virtually nothing.

maybe you can make some sense out of this:
www dot reuters.com/article/etfNews/idUSN0151448920081201

it seems to be GS’s offering of a bond (denominated in euros).. not a CD.

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Comment by samk
2009-07-23 07:42:50

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/worldnews/article-1201562/Imbeciles-Hundreds-evacuated-homes-bushfire-caused-French-military-threatens-Marseille.html

I wonder if somebody in the Foreign Legion “accidentally” dropped a round a little too close to home.

Comment by joeyinCalif
2009-07-23 08:15:29

“Classic! I’m surprised they didn’t surrender before starting though.” - Noel, Mansfield, UK, 23/7/2009

 
 
Comment by wmbz
2009-07-23 07:52:08

Dow 15,000, Here We Come: Stocks Going to New Highs, Lemonides Says
Posted Jul 23, 2009 08:00am EDT by Peter Gorenstein in Investing

Quarterly earnings reports have reignited the dormant rally that began in early March and ran into June. The Nasdaq is on an eleven-day winning streak. The Dow dipped fractionally Wednesday but is just about break even for the year and the benchmark Standard & Poor’s 500 is at its highest point since November.

Skeptics warn the rally may fade as expectations get ahead of reality. But Charles Lemonides, chief investment officer with ValueWorks, says there’s plenty of upside left, thanks to improving fundamentals. “When you have better economic conditions and really, really compelling valuations; and you’re bumping up against the top end of a range it’s sort of a good recipe for breaking through that range and going significantly higher,” he says.

Brian Wesbury, chief economist at First Trust Advisors, got the ‘Tech Ticker’ crowd going on Wednesday, when he made a similar call, saying stocks are 50% undervalued and the Dow could hit 10,000 by year end. Lemonides’ call is even more bold: “I don’t think it would be surprising to see a 12,000 number [on the Dow] six months to a year out,” he says.

But he’s not done there: “You’ll see the market retrace its old high which means I think that over a couple of years you’ll see 15,000 on the Dow.”

I told you it was bold.

According to Lemonides, the same thing that drove the tech and housing bubbles will also drive this next rally: low interest rates. In his view, “interest rates modulate economic activity.“ And, with rates essentially as low as they can go, he expects asset inflation, “not really fast but over time.”

It’s a simple formula “capitalism comes with boom and bust” and after going bust last year we’re in the beginning stages of a boom.

In the meantime, he’s buying stocks he thinks are undervalued, including Legg Mason, 3M and Boeing. With each company, “you’re getting these names at valuations that are just off the charts… and in an economic environment that’s likely to be improving,” Lemonides says.

Comment by Julius
2009-07-23 08:41:40

Today is another asinine stock rally based on nothing. Stocks are not “undervalued”, it’s that mouthbreathers are buying them up the same way they used to buy up real estate.

Meanwhile, 554k more people were laid off last month. Will the Dow hit 10,000 with an unemployment rate of >10%? Doubtful.

Comment by scdave
2009-07-23 09:12:40

The big boys move the market all by themselves with the sheer weight of the cash reserves and the constant inflows of new cash…They may be able to run it up a little but the retail investor is goneski and the 75 million baby boomer’s are in no mood to put their reserves at any risk..They can’t earn it again..So is a whole generation of young people who have watched their parents portfolios get halved…Just wait until the fed has to step back due to inflation and the lack of demand for our bonds at these rates…Combine that with double digit unemployment and underemployment, show me the stock market then…IMO, its a bear trap in the broader market…Stock picking, yes if you are good enough to find the winners…I am not…

 
 
Comment by sleepless_near_seattle
2009-07-23 08:59:55

This is a good segue for a review. Many HBBers made the prediction that by 2009’s end the Dow would again crash. I recall some the estimates for final resting place at 3000-6000.

Do those of you who made these predictions still hold to your predictions? Why or why not?

Comment by mariner22
2009-07-23 09:46:18

I still believe the trough will end up Dow 4000-6000 which is ~ 10 x multiple of S&P500 earnings equivalent, give or take with one big “if” - If there is hyperinflation all bets are off as people will be running from US dollar denominated cash like it was going to expire.

Put $23 trillion into the economy and amazing things will happen with stocks. It is the removal of these bailouts, backstops and guarantees that will be very interesting.

I believe the rank and file are really hurting, and watching Goldman Sachs rub all of our noses in it is maddening.

 
Comment by Kim
2009-07-23 10:10:32

I do think we’re going to see another big down movement. More companies are missing on revenue than not. While companies can goose EPS through cutbacks and layoffs, that isn’t sustainable. Earnings season is half over, so pretty soon they’re going to have to come up with some other excuse to move higher.

Less money is coming into the market because boomers are taking it out (or starting to), companies are cutting back on their 401K matches, and the unemployed aren’t contributing period.

I wasn’t a predictor of DOW 3000-6000, though.

 
Comment by packman
2009-07-23 10:11:10

I’ll venture an educated guess. My guess is one more leg down this fall or winter, when it becomes apparent that the fundamentals of the economy aren’t as strong as we thought - e.g. still too much housing inventory, still too much debt not allowing consumer spending to pick up. Plus at some point the banks will finally have to fish or cut bait with their toxic assets, and stop kicking the can down the road with mark-to-fantasy.

I’ll further guess that the leg down will extend beyond last fall’s swoon, and end up somewhere in the 5,000 - 6,000 range.

(But then again - we could just as easily hit 15,000 this fall :) )

Comment by Arizona Slim
2009-07-23 11:17:21

I’m with packman — on the first two paragraphs. I also think that the widespread (and growing) revulsion against Wall Street doesn’t bode well for the market going way up anytime soon.

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Comment by joeyinCalif
2009-07-23 11:02:33

I think DOW at 8 or 9K is about the right amount of damage. It fell all the way from around 14K.
Reason i don’t expect a lower plateau is the root source of this recession was different than previous. Housing is not part of the stock market.

The dynamics of the fall shouldn’t be expected to be the same as if speculation caused a massive bubble in some huge market segment, like dot-coms or industrials.

i kinda felt that anything under 7K was a bottom.. i was in Vegas playing poker when that happened.. saw it on the TV and said to the guy next to me “That’s it. I’m calling a bottom.” He looked at the TV with a blank stare and didn’t reply. I was kinda shocked that it slipped out.. it was like lsomeone else was talking through me..

Considering the govt seems intent on supporting whatever needs support but can’t force a recovery, imo we’re gonna float around a DOW of 8-9K for a couple years..

 
Comment by cactus
2009-07-23 12:31:18

I agree with DOW at 10x earnings which is typical after big crashes. Whats it at now 15x ?

 
 
Comment by ACH
2009-07-23 09:32:01

Don’t misunderstand what he was saying on the Tech Ticker video. This guy is saying that hyperinflation is comming and another bubble along with it. He is actually aligned with what we fear.
His only problem is that he is not fearful of the possibile end result.
… and THAT is why he is an IDIOT.

Roidy

Comment by alpha-sloth
2009-07-23 10:46:36

Why wouldn’t hyper-inflation crash the market? Doesn’t it imply economic collapse? Or is it a case of getting out in time? (ie just before the inflation becomes “hyper”)

Comment by sleepless_near_seattle
2009-07-23 10:52:15

I also had this question after reading Mariner22’s post above.

My guess would be that the idea is to ride the stock market during the hyperinflation phase and get out of the market once interest rates - put in place to combat said inflation - start their ascent.

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Comment by alpha-sloth
2009-07-23 11:10:35

Yeah, it seems to me in true hyper-inflation people have lost all faith in the affected currency. I get how a devalued dollar would make stocks go higher, but in a total economic panic I would think most companies will be going bankrupt along with the rest of us. Did the
German stock market go up during the Weimar hyper-inflation?

 
 
 
 
 
Comment by cactus
2009-07-23 08:04:31

A report Thursday of a jump in home sales eased investors’ worries about one of the economy’s biggest trouble spots. They responded by buying stocks across the market, lifting the major indexes more than 1.5 percent and sending the Dow up 150 points past 9,000.

A real estate group said sales of previously occupied homes rose 3.6 percent from May to June. It was the third straight monthly increase and fed investors’ hopes that the overall economy is strengthening.

green shoots there they are

Comment by Professor Bear
2009-07-23 09:58:22

I thought the housing and stock markets were ‘decoupled.’ (At least that is what the trolls who used to frequently post here before the housing bubble popped would always insist.)

 
 
Comment by not a gator
2009-07-23 08:53:24

Shout out to Olygal and any other PNWers:

I’m going to be riding the Cascades with my sweetheart in a week and a half, Aug 2-6. I’m planning on stopping in Portland, OR, Olympia-Lacey, WA, Vancouver, BC, and very briefly in Seattle (there’s a layover).

I think I have a handle on the Vancouver portion (we’re talking a tour and visiting some parks) but I was wondering what I shouldn’t miss in Portland and Olympia. I decided to stop in Olympia because Olygal keeps talking it up. I am wondering where this awesome beer she keeps going on about is brewed, for one thing.

Re: Portland, everyone tells us to visit this one donut shop… :P

Comment by DinOR
2009-07-23 09:10:51

not a gator,

Well, a lot of the “trendy” eateries in the “Pearl District” in Portland have been boarded up but if you’re a bibliophile, Powell’s Books on W. Burnside is an absolute must. ( I think they have the Dead Sea Scrolls in there somewhere? )

The Portland Beavers ( San Diego Padres farm club ) should have some games going on at PGE Park and further up from Powell’s is the Japanese Gardens and they also have the Chinese Garden off of Everett and I believe 4th? Lunch at Jazz Opus II is fun and then there’s Jimmy Mack’s just down the block.

Comment by sleepless_near_seattle
2009-07-23 09:15:11

I second the Powell’s and Jimmy Maks recommendations!

Haven’t been to Opus since it was Jazz de Opus (1998??, after which it closed)

Comment by DinOR
2009-07-23 09:40:42

sleepless,

IIRC there was a “II” right off Burnside like 2nd and Davis? It was much smaller and usually full of finance people at lunch but a very ‘different’ crowd after the commuters left.

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Comment by sleepless_near_seattle
2009-07-23 10:09:48

Yeah, that was where it was. I just googled it in Portland and it must be closed for good. I knew it closed in 98 or 99 but when I saw your post I thought maybe they had resurrected the place.

IIRC, a dance club for the “see and be seen” set called Barracuda now occupies the space. That’s too bad.

 
 
 
Comment by scdave
2009-07-23 09:18:08

I have enjoyed Portland every time I have been there…

 
 
Comment by sleepless_near_seattle
2009-07-23 09:13:21

Ah, Portlanders and their hype of things trivial (and existent in most other cities). A donut shop? Yes, that’s certainly what you should see in Portland! :-)

If you’re looking for beer, try Widmer Gasthaus in N. Portland, Bridgeport Brewing (Pearl District or on Hawthorne), Deschutes Alehouse (Pearl District). McMenamins is, I guess, a local chain of rehabbed properties into restaurants/theatre/alehouses. The Kennedy School (a former elementary school) is a favorite. Try the Hammerhead or ask them for a sample of the Rubinator: a combo of their Ruby Ale and their Terminator Stout. Those are the most well known but Google “Portland microbrews” for more.

Too bad you’re not coming this weekend as we are having the Oregon Brewer’s Festival.

Comment by scdave
2009-07-23 09:43:32

Dang…I just got back from 5 days on the coast of Oregon I should have taken a few more days and headed to Portland…By the way Rancher, it was 68 degrees each day while you were cooking in Grants Pass @ 100 :)

Comment by Rancher
2009-07-23 16:33:51

Rub it in, Dave….we’re expecting it to hit 108
on Monday.

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Comment by scdave
2009-07-23 16:53:09

Put some Ice in that coffee :)

 
 
 
Comment by not a gator
2009-07-23 14:22:32

Dag nab it! Well, your info looks good. Anything with the name Deutsches in it is going to attract my German-Jewish wife. Why, the only beer she likes to drink is Bavarian dunklesbrau. She got hooked on this Augustiner stuff when we were in Germany and won’t have anything else now. Also, if there are sausages to be had, all the better. (She doesn’t keep kosher.)

Thanks for the info, everyone. I’m copying and pasting into a text document. Probably will have to skip the minor league game b/c we’re spending most of our days in Vancouver. Also, staying in hostels, so wish us luck. :D

Comment by sleepless_near_seattle
2009-07-23 15:03:38

NAG,

I’ll be curious to hear your wife’s review of Widmer. One guy that I took there didn’t think it fit the German model quite enough.

On the other hand, with the pub grub they serve, they don’t have “freedom” fries as an option. It’s cold potato salad (or slaw, I believe). One of the reasons that I like Widmer, in addition to their beer.

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Comment by sleepless_near_seattle
2009-07-23 15:08:10

LOL, maybe you were joking but its Deschutes, not Deutsches. Same letters though! The Deschutes is a river in Oregon.

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Comment by not a gator
2009-07-23 15:38:38

Oh! Well, talk about wishful thinking. I guess I’ll remember that name now, though.

Wifey loves German-style potato salad and cole slaw. She also loves Leberkäse. That’s when I pretend I don’t know her.

 
Comment by sleepless_near_seattle
2009-07-23 16:38:34

LOL, well now I know what to avoid I guess. And now I’ve got to google it cuz I have no idea what Leberkase is….

 
Comment by sleepless_near_seattle
2009-07-23 16:42:46

Googled it. Now I understand your aversion.

I had a friend in college that would sit at the couch with a knife (or was it a spoon?) and slice off and eat pieces of Braunschweiger. So nasty.

 
 
 
Comment by Prime_Is_Contained
2009-07-23 15:44:08

“A donut shop? Yes, that’s certainly what you should see in Portland!”

You make fun of it, but how many places can you get a _bacon_-topped donut???

 
 
Comment by born yesterday
2009-07-23 09:55:01

voodoo donut. voodoodoughnut.com
22 SW 3rd Ave
Portland, OR 97204-2713
(503) 241-4704

Comment by scdave
2009-07-23 10:16:58

Voodoo doughnut ?? Whats so special ??

Comment by sleepless_near_seattle
2009-07-23 10:49:16

scdave,

Did you also know that you can ride a bike in Portland? Why, we even have bike lanes! Who knew there was such a place?

Try doing THAT anywhere else!

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Comment by scdave
2009-07-23 11:50:57

Yes sleepless I am acutely aware of that…Part of what makes Portland unique…I ride my bike every day around here but its quite dangerous…I just try and stay on the back streets…

 
Comment by lavi d
2009-07-23 12:02:14

Did you also know that you can ride a bike in Portland?

We have bike lanes in Las Vegas. But I fail to see how a stripe of white paint is going to keep a 2-ton car from running you over if it’s pointed in your direction.

Hell, even the sidewalks aren’t safe, based on the number of skid marks I’ve seen going up onto them.

 
Comment by not a gator
2009-07-23 14:07:46

Nearly killed myself from the heat biking home today (missed the bus … ironic, since I’m a bus driver). I would not want to ride a bus in Vegas, ugh.

G’ville is a nice town for bike riding, but, you know, I have an inkling Portland offers a bit more culturally.

I mean, Portland has Powell’s (which has gone national with powells.com). Gainesville has a semi-annual Friends of the Library sale in an old shed. This is apparently such an event in Florida that people pour into town for three days on the Greyhound from such locales as Tampa and Jacksonville.

*sigh*

 
Comment by lavi d
2009-07-23 14:18:10

Nearly killed myself from the heat biking home today

Hey! I’m riding my bike home in the heat today after work.

I would not want to ride a bus in Vegas, ugh.

I stick to the sidewalks, yield to all pedestrians and try never to give a car a shot at me.

 
Comment by lavi d
2009-07-23 14:20:02

I have an inkling Portland offers a bit more culturally.

I don’t know about that, but the few times that I visited the Portland area (Keizer), I constantly fantasized about riding my bike there.

 
Comment by lavi d
2009-07-23 14:37:12

I would not want to ride a bus in Vegas, ugh.

bus. Thought I read “bike”.

Feh.

 
Comment by sleepless_near_seattle
2009-07-23 15:00:14

lavi,

Regarding your first reply I was totally joking about the bike lane thing. You guys are proving my point by relating your bike experiences. People act like none of these activities (farmer’s markets, biking, and beer for that matter) can be had anywhere else.

Portland simultaneously doubles as a city I like and the most narcissistic city I know of.

 
Comment by sleepless_near_seattle
2009-07-23 15:04:42

oh, and scdave, you too. Joking. I really don’t think Portland is that unique in regard to biking.

 
Comment by not a gator
2009-07-23 15:40:05

I would not want to ride a bus in Vegas, ugh.

bus. Thought I read “bike”.

YOu read right–I wrote it wrong! I meant ride a bike. I would definitely ride a bus. :D

 
Comment by lavi d
2009-07-23 15:47:04

I meant ride a bike. I would definitely ride a bus.

I’ve ridden the buses here - so I had no problem with “Ugh”

:)

 
Comment by Rancher
2009-07-23 16:40:52

Oregon recently passed a law which states that a vehicle has to clear a bike by at least
three feet, and if that means crossing a double line, you won’t be illegal doing so.

So, veer to the left to avoid a cyclist and get
hit head-on by an 18 wheeler…go figure

 
 
 
 
Comment by SanFranciscoBayAreaGal
2009-07-23 10:10:40

That would be the Voodoo Doughnut.

 
Comment by Olympiagal
2009-07-23 11:08:36

Super! If you make it, non-gator, I’ll buy you a beer, or even two or three! In the Best Dive Bar in the Universe! That’d be fun.
I believe I’ll be around those days.
Keep me informed, wouldja? My email is: blue dot is dot best @ hot mail dot com.
I don’t check that email very rigorously, but I’ll keep an eye on it.

Portland’s great, too. I love Portland.

Comment by not a gator
2009-07-23 14:17:18

Hey, will do. I’ll let you know if the email bounces. ;-)

 
 
 
Comment by wmbz
2009-07-23 09:01:19

July 23 (Bloomberg) — Mortgage rates in the U.S. rose for the first time in four weeks, a sign the federal government’s effort to lower borrowing costs is losing momentum.

The average 30-year rate increased to 5.2 percent from 5.14 percent, mortgage buyer Freddie Mac of McLean, Virginia, said today in a statement. The 15-year rate was 4.68 percent.

Mortgage rates fell to the lowest since May last week, driven down by the Federal Reserve’s $1.25 trillion plan for buying mortgage-backed securities. Falling rates helped boost refinancing and purchase applications for home loans. Too big an increase would threaten a housing recovery, said George Mokrzan, senior economist at Huntington National Bank in Columbus, Ohio.

“It’s certainly the biggest risk at this point,” Mokrzan said in an interview. “There’s just a lot of policy focus in getting the mortgage markets going.”

Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke is trying to lower borrowing costs with a program to purchase securities backed by home loans. Delinquent mortgages triggered the global credit crunch and have cost financial firms almost $1.5 trillion in losses and asset writedowns so far, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

Home resales in the U.S. rose in June for a third consecutive month, spurred by tax incentives, lower borrowing costs and foreclosure-driven declines in prices.

Home Purchases Climb

Purchases climbed 3.6 percent to an annual rate of 4.89 million, stronger than forecast and the highest level since October, the National Association of Realtors said today in Washington. Median prices fell 15 percent.

“Overall it’s positive,” Mokrzan said of the existing home sales data. “It points to a bottom going on this year.”

Comment by Arizona Slim
2009-07-23 09:11:24

…the federal government’s effort to lower borrowing costs is losing momentum.

Something tells me that this is not going to end well.

Comment by scdave
2009-07-23 09:24:13

Its going to end badly in a few years with mortgages in the 7-8% range and previous valuations set with 4-5% money…

Comment by sleepless_near_seattle
2009-07-23 10:21:14

That’s it? Can’t we make it 9-10% mortgages?

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Comment by joeyinCalif
2009-07-23 09:18:58

“It points to a bottom going on this year.”

That’s short and sweet but at the same time cleverly and carefully worded.. “going on” and “this year”

He knows it’s not “the” bottom. “The” bottom is being delayed by the overhang of inventory both exposed and hidden as well as the coming waves of mortgage resets that will increase inventory beyond what already exists.

“This year”,s bottom is “going on”, meaning it has a limited lifespan. Next year may not see a bottom going on.. just a continuous downward slide.

Comment by not a gator
2009-07-23 14:19:05

I think the bottom he’s referring to is the bottom in the stock market which is sure to follow any serious ramp in bond rates.

Personally, I think I’m numb from SRS going from $90 to $17. Yeah, I was stupid. Never try to do three jobs at once–you’ll do a crappy job of all of them.

 
 
 
Comment by awaiting wipeout
2009-07-23 09:36:21

Report Back On Foreclosure Workshop

The Foreclosure Workshop was $795, but if you bought it last night, it was “only” $495, not like Trump U or Robert Allen’, as we were shown on the dry board last night. Such a deal. It was about buying pre-forclosures, you know, buying 10% of the equity, and “subject to” the loan, holding title. The game was that the market would start to recover in 2011, and you could quit your day job. He would mentor you, and share in the deals to help you get rich too. No good credit needed, since the banks were trying to unload REO’s, so they certainly didn’t need more inventory. REO insight was teased, and you’ll get the rest for $495-. His loan guy was standing by (in the room).

I believe I found his (the presentors) law license status through the Ca Bar Assoc.and it wasn’t pretty. He settled financial penalties with them. OMG, 20 yrs+ of data on the guy’s license, and I don’t think I saw more than one “active” status, which I believe was at the beginning.

Some of the people bought the all day workshop, since there was a 100% back money hook. Lots of half truths and cheer leading.

 
Comment by Hwy50ina49Dodge
2009-07-23 09:58:53

Question: Why did Bill Gates invest 400 million $$$$$$$$%% in a “longevity” program?
Answer: Gates: “I want to live long enough to eat as much dairy queen ice cream as Warren” :-)

BWAHAHHAHAHAHHAHAHHAHHAHAHAHHHHHHHHHHHHH!!! (fpss™)

“…The 40 percent return is based on the gain if Buffett were to redeem the warrants and sell them at today’s price. Berkshire also gets $500 million in interest on the preferred shares annually.”

Berkshire Profit on Goldman Sachs Passes $2 Billion:

By Erik Holm July 23 (Bloomberg)

 
Comment by Professor Bear
2009-07-23 10:00:31

Is this whole Obama internet censorship Czar story just a big right wing conspiracy theory hoax?

Right Side News
The Right News for Americans
Obama Outrage - Controlling the Internet
Written by Vincent Gioia
Tuesday, 21 July 2009 13:54

In the world of Obama there cannot be any dissent or criticism of the master designer (no, not God - President Barack Obama) and any attempts to impugn the Obama plans for “change” must be demolished. So if negativity comes from the internet, then of course the blogosphere must be added to litany of government control and censorship.

The recent Obama intended appointment of Cass Sunstein, a Harvard Law professor, to the position of head of the White House Office of Information and Regulatory Affairs is the next nail in the coffin of the First Amendment. In this position Sunstein will have powers that are unprecedented and very far reaching; not merely mind-boggling but with explicit ability to use the courts to stifle free speech if it opposes Obama policies. In particular, Sunstein thinks that the bloggers have been “rampaging out of control” and that “new laws need to be written” to contain them. Advance copies of Sunstein’s new book, “On Rumors: How Falsehoods Spread, Why We Believe Them, What Can Be Done,” have gone out to reviewers ahead of its September publication date, but considering the new position to which Sunstein is about to be appointed, the powers with which Sunstein will be endowed are very, very, troubling.

Comment by joeyinCalif
2009-07-23 10:26:42

Is this whole Obama internet censorship Czar story just a big right wing conspiracy theory hoax?

Can we afford to take the chance??
Off with the head of head of the White House Office of Information and Regulatory Affairs!

“Office of information” does sound a little creepy if you ask me..

Comment by patient renter
2009-07-23 11:26:48

“Office of information”

Yes, very Orwellian.

Comment by Eudemon
2009-07-23 16:05:29

BTW - Obama also wants the executive branch to “oversee” Inspector General. Sweet, huh?

So much for Congress.

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Comment by packman
2009-07-23 10:29:19

It’s worth noting that Google CEO Eric Schmidt attended last year’s Bilderberg meeting (right down street from me actually in Dulles).

Bernanke and Geithner of course were there, as well as the NBER CEO, the CEO of Tom Tom, the Washing Post CEO, and Perseus Vice Chairman James Johnson (rumored to have been the one to pick Obama’s running mate). And of course the usual suspects from finance - interestingly minus anyone from JPM or GS though.

(tin foil hat moment)

 
Comment by edgewaterjohn
2009-07-23 10:51:18

Just so we’re straight, the phrase “it’s never been a better time to buy” has not, is not, and will not ever be a “falsehood”?

 
Comment by Sweeping Changes
2009-07-23 13:18:07

PB, what do you think?
Cat got your tongue?
Do all the expressing now while we have freedom of speech left. Wasn’t it just as horrible as this in the Bush years?

 
Comment by lavi d
2009-07-23 13:57:58

In this [Office of Information and Regulatory Affairs] position Sunstein will have powers that are unprecedented and very far reaching; not merely mind-boggling but with explicit ability to use the courts to stifle free speech if it opposes Obama policies.

Where did he (the author) get this?

According to the WSJ:

“[The] …Office of Information and Regulatory Affairs within the White House Office of Management and Budget. Created by President Jimmy Carter in 1980 to reduce paperwork and weigh the usefulness of new regulations, the office is the final clearinghouse for rules written by agencies government-wide.

“The office became an antiregulatory hub under President Ronald Reagan but faded in influence under President Bill Clinton. It regained its punch within the bureaucracy under President George W. Bush.”

 
 
Comment by wmbz
2009-07-23 10:24:22

Report: Toyota to end Calif. joint venture with GM
Thursday, July 23, 2009
(07-23) 08:11 PDT NEW YORK, (AP) –

Toyota Motor Corp. has decided to liquidate its stake in a California manufacturing plant that it jointly operated with General Motors, a Japanese news agency reported Thursday.

The Japanese carmaker will begin negotiating with the “Old GM” starting next week, Kyodo News reported, citing unnamed company officials.

Toyota spokesman Mike Goss would not confirm that the Japanese automaker had made a final decision on the fate of Fremont, Calif.-based New United Motor Manufacturing Inc., also known as NUMMI. Goss said Toyota will begin negotiations with the GM officials about the plant and added that the company is conducting an “extensive review” of its production needs.

A GM spokeswoman was not immediately available to comment.

Nummi’s fate was thrown into question last month when GM announced it was withdrawing from the 50-50 joint venture. GM emerged from bankruptcy protection shortly after the announcement and the company’s stake in NUMMI is now part of Motors Liquidation Co. — also known as Old GM — where it will be liquidated under court supervision.

The NUMMI plant, established in 1984, employs 4,600 workers and makes the Pontiac Vibe station wagon for GM, and the Corolla compact car and Tacoma pickup truck for Toyota.

Toyota has been reexamining its U.S. strategy after plummeting U.S. auto sales helped drag it to its worst-ever overall loss for the fiscal year ended in March.

Comment by edgewaterjohn
2009-07-23 10:54:54

Ah, those 4,600 jobs don’t matter - they weren’t building “Amerkun” cars.

snark off/

 
 
Comment by wmbz
2009-07-23 11:12:12

Some green shoots… aka brown squirts from my little state…

South Financial loses $111.5M
Carolina First Bank parent has posted 6 consecutive losses
The State
Thursday, July 23, 2009

COLUMBIA — The South Financial Group Inc., parent of the largest bank based in South Carolina, lost $111.5 million in the second quarter on increased loan charge-offs and higher credit- and insurance-related expenses, the Greenville company said this week.

The parent of Carolina First Bank now has posted six consecutive quarterly losses totaling more than $770 million.

“We continue to be proactive and realistic in addressing problem assets,” South Financial chief executive Lynn Harton said in a statement Tuesday. “While credit will remain challenging, we have prepared for it by building our capitalposition and loan loss reserves.”

The bank reported a second-quarter loss of $111.5 million, or a loss of $1.23 per share, versus a loss of $16.8 million, or 23 cents a share, a year earlier.

South Financial took a $16 million charge for selling its partially constructed corporate campus in Greenville.

The bank has trimmed staff by 10 percent this year, with employment expected to drop below 2,300 by the fall.

Bad commercial loans in Florida are slowing, South Financial said.

But they are rising in the Carolinas, which was hit later by effects of the recession.

Bad consumer loans have been declining, the bank said.

By summer’s end, South Financial will have bolstered its balance sheet by nearly $1 billion in a little more than a year to better protect itself from the recession.

Among the moves was a stock sale that nearly doubled the number of South Financial shares to 160 million.

The Greenville-based bank owner released earnings after U.S. stock markets closed Tuesday.

It shares rose 6 cents Wednesday, or more than 5 percent, to close at $1.11 on nearly triple the average trading volume of the past three months, according to Yahoo.

Comment by Arizona Slim
2009-07-23 11:20:59

And where is your governor?

Comment by wmbz
2009-07-23 11:58:00

Well he’s not on the Appalachian trail, or on the Argentinian tail.

He is on his way to Europe with his wife and kids. To start paying for his sins, I guess.

Comment by Blano
2009-07-23 16:38:18

I’m sure he’s well past starting to pay for it, lol. (I hope)

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Comment by wmbz
2009-07-23 11:19:10

Homeowners falling behind in mortgage payments on rise in both California and L.A. County
Updated: 07/22/2009 07:40:41 PM PDT

Foreclosures plunged in Los Angeles County and across California in the second quarter from a year earlier, but default notices increased, a sign of more trouble for the housing market, a research firm said Wednesday.

Second-quarter foreclosures in the county fell 30 percent to 6,706 properties, compared with 9,609 a year ago, according to MDA DataQuick, based in San Diego.

Statewide, there were 45,667 foreclosures in the April through June period, down 28percent from 63,316 a year earlier.

Meanwhile, the number of homeowners falling behind in their mortgage payments edged up in both the county and and state.

DataQuick said 24,622 of Los Angeles County’s homeowners received notices this spring that their mortgage payments were seriously past due, up 14percent from 21,632 a year earlier.

Statewide, 124,562 owners received default notices, up 2percent from the year ago period.

DataQuick President John Walsh said lenders and mortgage servicers are now hiring more workers to process the backlog of delinquencies - a sign that the housing market troubles could drag on.

“That means the foreclosure numbers will probably shoot back up during the third quarter,” he said.

The increase in default notices from the year earlier occurred because lenders and loan servicers took time to revise procedures and priorities in an environment of continuing home price depreciation, economic distress and mortgage defaults.
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And while most foreclosure activity was still concentrated in affordable Inland communities, there were signs that the foreclosure problem was intensifying in more expensive areas.

Comment by Northeastener
2009-07-23 13:00:16

Homeowners falling behind in mortgage payments on rise in both California and L.A. County

As heard on NPR this morning: “Notices of Forclosure are 8X higher in June 2009 vs. June 2008 in Massachusetts”. I don’t think they gave the actual numbers as a point of reference, but it would seem the trend is clear.

 
 
Comment by wmbz
2009-07-23 11:35:31

How will the spin misters turn this into good news? Fewer deliverers is good news for the environment, UPS’s loss mother natures gain! Screw profits and jobs, who needs them.

UPS 2Q profit plunges 49 percent as sales slide.

UPS 2Q profit drops with fewer packages shipped; near-term outlook is dim…

On Thursday July 23, 2009, 12:24 pm EDT

ATLANTA (AP) — Consumers are sending fewer, lighter packages, businesses are urgently trying to spend less on shipping orders, and it all spells bad news for UPS Inc.

The economic bellwether said Thursday its second-quarter profit plunged 49 percent and cautioned that its near-term outlook probably won’t improve.

The story from smaller rival FedEx Corp. last month was even worse, as it faced some of the same challenges as UPS, but also accounted for hefty one-time charges and reported a sizable loss in its most recent quarter.

Both companies are tied to the well-being of the U.S. economy since they deal with such basic indicators of company health as orders and product shipments.

If demand doesn’t improve, that could mean more job cuts at UPS, which as of the end of the second quarter had shed 15,000 jobs, mostly through attrition, compared to the same time last year. The company has about 410,000 employees.

“We do see tremendous requests from our customers to bring their costs down,” UPS’ chief financial officer, Kurt Kuehn, said in a conference call with analysts.

Comment by Arizona Slim
2009-07-23 12:04:00

I plead guilty to having one, and possibly two, UPS order deliveries this week.

 
Comment by not a gator
2009-07-23 15:46:21

Bastards. I never did make much money buying UPS puts. Shoulda listened to the old-timers and bought long-dated puts. Would be a lot richer now.

Ditto for WFC, the lying scum.

 
 
Comment by sleepless_near_seattle
2009-07-23 11:47:28

Another HBB prediction comes to pass:
College graduates move back home

As entry level jobs are harder to find and living independently becomes more expensive, recent graduates are moving back home in greater numbers.

By Gerri Willis, CNN personal finance editor
July 23, 2009: 2:05 PM ET

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) — They’ve been dubbed boomerang kids and a recent poll by collegegrad.com shows that 80% of 2009 college graduates moved back in with their parents. That’s up quite a bit from recent years.

Comment by sleepless_near_seattle
2009-07-23 11:48:44

dang! bold off?

Comment by joeyinCalif
2009-07-23 12:48:07

i see opportunity here.. a mcmansion chock full of bunkbeds, chock full of homeless grads.. mom’s more than happy to pay the rent to keep him/her out of the her house..

Comment by San Diego RE Bear
2009-07-23 17:03:13

I lived that way for a year while traveling around Europe and the South Pacific. Great way to meet new friends and have new experiences. Not the worst way to live as long as everyone has a good attitude and is enjoying themselves. At least I know I could do it again if I had to. :)

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Comment by alpha-sloth
2009-07-23 12:47:14

80% moved back home to parents? That’s amazing if true. Economy be damned, once I had my own pad I never dreamed of moving back to my parent’s house. And I liked my parents. Honestly, how do you date when you live with your folks? (And that’s pretty much all I cared about back then.) Of course, I wasn’t overly picky about what jobs I’d do, as long as it put beer on the table.

Comment by eastcoaster
2009-07-23 12:52:26

That doesn’t really seem high to me. I think most of my friends moved back home after graduating. We didn’t stay long (a couple of years to save enough for apartments), but I’d say moving home is the norm.

Comment by alpha-sloth
2009-07-23 13:54:24

Hmmm. Either I’m old, or the
east coast had some seriously pricey apts. When I first moved out (mid 80’s) you could find reasonable apts at $200 a month here in the midwest.

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Comment by not a gator
2009-07-23 15:48:37

*dingdingding*

Rent will eat up 2/3 of takehome if you let it.

And yes, living with your parents will kill your social life. I finally got out. Best decision I ever made.

I think parents today are quicker to disapprove of a child’s shabby bohemian existence than to encourage their independence–and that’s sad.

 
 
 
Comment by Bad Chile
2009-07-23 13:27:27

80% ?!?!?!

Is there a national chain of hourly rate hotels I can invest in?

 
Comment by sleepless_near_seattle
2009-07-23 14:53:45

Ditto.

 
 
 
Comment by BanteringBear
2009-07-23 12:06:01

Oil up $12 in a week. What a freaking scam.

Comment by joeyinCalif
2009-07-23 12:44:41

speculators getting their last licks in before they’re cut off by new regulations..

but who the heck would buy overpriced oil now, when we’re swimming in it..

Comment by Arizona Slim
2009-07-23 15:01:57

Same sort of people who bought overpriced houses after the market peaked in ‘05.

 
 
 
Comment by wmbz
2009-07-23 12:28:39

No problem, they are just numbers, give’um mo money, it’s not like anyone knows their true debt anyway.

Fannie & Freddie: The most expensive bailout
Efforts to use the troubled mortgage finance firms to fix housing market problems are likely to push the taxpayer bill for Fannie & Freddie above $100 billion.

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) — The first big government bailout of the financial crisis — the takeover of mortgage finance giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac — is poised to be the most expensive and complicated to complete.

Since Congress essentially wrote a blank check to the Treasury Department in July 2008 to do what needed to be done to inject capital into the two firms, Fannie (FNM, Fortune 500) has received $34.2 billion of direct government support while Freddie (FRE, Fortune 500) has received $51.7 billion.

While that’s lower than the $117.5 billion poured into insurer AIG (AIG, Fortune 500) by the Federal Reserve and the $200 billion given to the nation’s largest banks through the Troubled Asset Relief Program, or TARP, the current cost of the Fannie and Freddie bailouts dwarfs original estimates from a year ago

When Congress was debating the bailout of Fannie and Freddie last July, the official estimate from the Congressional Budget Office was that a bailout would most likely cost taxpayers $25 billion, with only a 5% chance of the price tag reaching $100 billion between them.

In addition, both Fannie and Freddie are likely to need billions of dollars more after they report second quarter results in the coming weeks. Experts believe the cost will only continue to rise in the next year.

“We’re assuming they each will cross the $100 billion mark fairly soon. They could be hitting the $200 billion barrier by the end of next year,” said Bose George, mortgage analyst at Keefe, Bruyette & Woods, an investment bank specializing in financial services firms.

 
Comment by wmbz
2009-07-23 12:35:10

DOW DOINGS!” Great excitement on Wall Street today as the DJIA average topped 9,000. Good news to be sure, especially for folks whose 401(k)s took such a beating from the price sag. Before we declare renewed prosperity, though, let’s look at where the DOW was in mid July, 2007…adjusted for inflation: 14,749. In other words, the DOW is 38 percent lower today than it was two years ago.

 
Comment by wmbz
2009-07-23 13:03:27

Fugitive British couple who ‘led champagne lifestyle’ may have starved to death on stolen yacht.
23rd July 2009 UK Dailymail

A couple who stole a yacht and set sail around the world to escape police were found after they apparently starved to death drifitng off the coast of Africa, an inquest heard yesterday.

The story of their slow, agonising death was detailed in a vivid diary found on board written by the couple as they came to terms with a certain death.

Peter Clarke, 49, and Sharon Arthurs-Chegini, 46, had enjoyed a ‘champagne and cocaine’ lifestyle beyond their means and stole the yacht they died on after skipping bail for a previous boat theft.

It is thought their vessel suffered damage in a storm and that Mr Clarke became bedridden as they tried to survive by drinking sea water and urine.

In a red journal belonging to Mrs Arthurs-Chegini found on board, the the former interior designer had written: ‘The lights are going out in my heart.

‘We have not eaten for four weeks. I dream of my mum’s steak and kidney pie, roast dinner, and sausage and mash.’

The Bonnie and Clyde-style couple stole the yacht in Portugal while they were on the run for stealing another vessel from a harbour in Cornwall.

By the time they were found by Senegalese fishermen, almost three months after the diary entry, their bodies were so badly decomposed that a precise cause of death could not be given at the inquest.

A post mortem revealed there were no internal or external injuries and gave a cause of death as unascertained.

After their deaths, it was initially suspected that they had been the victim of murderous pirates in the waters off West Africa.

Senegalese police also said they found the boat’s rudder tied up, and suggested the state of the boat may have been the result of a ’settling of scores’.

But a British police witness said there was no evidence of any third party involvement .

Recording an open verdict, in Truro, Cornwall, Coroner Dr Emma Carlyon said there was little evidence to indicate how the couple died other than the diary entry which described a lack of water, food and possible storm damage to the yacht.

She said: ‘Mrs Arthurs-Chegini kept a red diary and an entry on June 19 suggested they had run out of water and Mr Clarke was unwell.’

The passage in the diary described the desperate situation the couple found themselves in and they were drinking a combination of sea water and urine.

Comment by joeyinCalif
2009-07-23 13:32:46

any special forces or survivalists in here?
Someone told me a sea water enema will provide needed water without salt absorption.. never found proof tho..

Comment by alpha-sloth
2009-07-23 15:16:20

sounds refreshing if nothing else

Comment by Prime_Is_Contained
2009-07-23 15:35:23

LOL…

“Lost at sea for a month, the sailors were found with the cleanest colons ever encountered…”

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Comment by polly
2009-07-23 15:54:58

You can process sea water with a contraption that uses evaporation. I know I’ve seen a diagram. A tray of water with a longish piece of glass propped up over it at an angle and the water minus the salt evaporates, hits the glass and drips back down the edge where you catch it. Something like that.

Comment by joeyinCalif
2009-07-23 16:08:25

yeah.. condensation .. it evaporates and condenses on the plastic sheet or glass and dribbles down into a cup. But then criminals in general are not famous for being well prepared … mentally.

I was wondering about osmosis.. one side of a membrane has salt water and the other has more or less salty water. Pure water travels one way through the membrane (i forget which). Good water purifiers use this principle.
When you’re dehydrated salt builds up in the blood and other body fluids so the normal salt content changes.. body tissue acts like the membrane.

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Comment by Prime_Is_Contained
2009-07-23 17:57:23

It’s called osmosis; the liquid moves to equalize concentration (usually of a salt), IIRC.

My thought is that you would have to be _awfully_ dehydrated before your blood is more-salty than seas-water.

 
Comment by joeyinCalif
2009-07-23 18:20:21

yeah… they are way different, sea water is saltier by a factor of 3 or so

i just searched a couple sea-survival pages and one guy recommends that if the only water available is foul or in the bottom of a raft or similar, it can taste so bad it can cause vomiting, and taking it as an enema might be better (it will be absorbed).

But he’s talking relatively salt-free water.

the guy’s pretty serious.. no holds barred (says to store an extra pint of rain water “up there” if you have few containers

www dot caske2000.org/survival/survivesea.htm#Survival%20at%20Sea

 
 
 
 
Comment by Arizona Slim
2009-07-23 14:25:57

Wonder if the piskies got to them. (Anyone who’s Cornish knows what they are.)

Comment by alpha-sloth
2009-07-23 15:20:10

are there sea-faring faeries?

Comment by Arizona Slim
2009-07-23 16:30:46

They’re the Cornish equivalent of pixies. And they’re nasty little devils. Much nastier than the troll under the bridge.

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Comment by wmbz
2009-07-23 15:09:27

Swine flu cases double as 100,000 people contract disease in just one week.
By Daniel Martin UK Mail
23rd July 2009

The number of swine flu cases has doubled in a week to 100,000 - leaving England in the grip of an epidemic.

It came as officials warned that a third of those who have died so far had no serious underlying health problems.

Such is the level of concern that the new National Flu Pandemic Service website crashed within minutes of going live after receiving 2,600 hits a second, or 9.3million an hour.
Masked Italian students arrive at Stansted as news breaks that swine flu cases in England doubles in a week to 100,000

Prepared: Masked Italian students arrive at Stansted as news breaks that swine flu cases in England doubles in a week to 100,000

The Health Protection Agency yesterday said for the first time that the disease was probably at epidemic levels - or one in 500 people reporting flu-like illness.

It makes it the most virulent flu outbreak since the winter of 1999/2000, when 21,000 lost their lives.

The NHS is planning for up to 65,000 deaths from swine flu, with 30 per cent of the population - and 50 per cent of children - catching the infection.

Comment by not a gator
2009-07-23 15:53:31

This s*** is for real. Is it time to panic yet?

My employer just posted “tips” for preventing swine flu. Too bad it’s also airborne.

I say child care workers, teachers and bus drivers should be first in line for flu shots (after nurses and doctors, who we know will get them first anyway) since we’re a kind of nexus of infection. Everyone gets near us, we get sick right after the stroller set, and who knows how many get sick because of us?

You can stop going to restaurants, but you can’t stop going to work and taking your kid to daycare. Or maybe you can, but the sort of people who ride the bus to work can’t.

Comment by polly
2009-07-23 16:02:20

I had to answer an essay question on how to prioritize vaccinations for a public health class once. “First responders” like cops and firemen and EMT’s get prioritized with the nurses and doctors. I think I included the rest of your list along with taxi drivers and people in essential services - grocery store employees, plumbers and electricians who do repair work, that sort of thing.

I have to admit, it is going to be nice to be able to get my flu shot from the Office of Personnel Management this year instead of having to stand in line at a supermarket. I don’t see how I could get priority at a doctor’s office.

 
Comment by cobaltblue
2009-07-23 17:10:44

Another sad complication is the fact that a less than thoroughly tested vaccine could wind up killing more people than the disease itself. That’s happened before.

Comment by jeff saturday
2009-07-23 19:25:38

See death row at the end of yestrdays bits.

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Comment by hip in zilker
2009-07-23 16:03:39

I got a call from a collection agency. Someone (who I had never heard of, in Houston) got a gas station card presenting himself as my partner in an LLC that I used for a while for a single limited purpose (no transportation involved and no debt). This guy racked up over $16,000 of fuel charges before the company sent the account to the collection agency.

Fortunately, the collection guy did not take long to understand that this was a case of fraud and said he would get back to me after contacting the company and that they would probably have me write a letter.

I called a lawyer friend who suggested I should be more proactive, so I went ahead and wrote the letter to the collection agency. I tried to report it to the Austin PD, but the police need some time and place information to even file a report. I hope that I will be able to get some time and place info - when and where the account was opened, first and last time the card was used - from the company via the collection agency so that I can file a report.

$16,355.58!!! That’s a lot of fuel.

Comment by cobaltblue
2009-07-23 17:27:58

“$16,355.58!!! That’s a lot of fuel.”

Well, it’s about 6,172 gallons of unleaded at recent prices, so chances are the crook’s not driving a 2009 Toyota Prius. Most people can’t drive for 280,000 miles without getting really sick and tired of Austin.

If I were the police I’d be looking for somebody in a 1969 Olds 442. As I recall I got about 2 MPG in mine.

 
Comment by alpha-sloth
2009-07-23 17:36:29

Sounds like he was filling up other people’s cars (friends and strangers) at a “discount”. Wouldn’t surprise me if there was some collusion between him and the station owner(s) where it took place.

Comment by hip in zilker
2009-07-23 18:26:36

cobaltblue, anyone driving around Austin would shoot themselves before they reached 280,000 miles, even if they owned a classic Olds. Terrible traffic here.

And I hadn’t thought of alpha-sloth’s idea - seems possible. But the company has stations all over the country I think, so the purchases weren’t necessarily all made at the same store. (Hopefully, the company - via the collection agency - will provide me with time and place information for my complaint.)

I thought it might be a long-distance trucker, some kind of cross-country delivery business, or a heavy equipment operator type fraudster.

Or maybe it was one of those cowboy boot-wearing, big belt buckle, big pickup truck developers (originally described by exeter a few years ago), making lots of trips from his job sites to the strip club. Shoot, he might even have been filling up the performers’ cars in exchange for lap dances, now that no one is buying his McMansions anymore.

 
 
 
Comment by jeff saturday
2009-07-23 19:37:49

I hope the CIA tells Pilosi.

Documents: US al-Qaida recruit trained as bomberJuly 23, 2009 9:24 PM ET

All Associated Press news NEW YORK (AP) - An American-born terrorist-in-training learned how to shoot rockets and assault rifles and construct a suicide bomber’s vest at al-Qaida camps in Pakistan, according to documents obtained Thursday by The Associated Press.

Bryant Neal Vinas took courses in plastic explosives and bomb theory, according to a statement he gave to investigators as part of a terrorism case in Belgium. The statement, provided to the AP on Thursday, was to be released after a hearing Friday, officials said.

Since the 26-year-old New York man’s arrest in Pakistan in November 2008, Vinas has become one of the most valuable informants in the war on terrorism, giving investigators a fascinating and rare look into al-Qaida’s day-to-day operations in a lawless region bordering Afghanistan.

He provided insights on many key members of Al-Qaida and how the organization recruited and indoctrinated people. Vinas also revealed the group gave lessons on assassination, poison, kidnapping, forgery and advanced bomb making, according to the statement.

Vinas told counterterrorism investigators about meetings with top al-Qaida members while staying at a network of hideouts on the Afghanistan-Pakistan border, where he trained from about March 2008 to August 2008.

Pakistani authorities nabbed the 26-year-old New Yorker after he returned to city of Peshawar near the border of Afghanistan to find a wife, according to his statement.

While he has been in custody in New York, the U.S. has made a series of successful unmanned Predator drone strikes on suspected al-Qaida locations in the difficult-to-penetrate border region, raising questions about whether Vinas provided the information that led to any of the deadly attacks.

One of those strikes took place in northwest Pakistan on Nov. 19, about the time of Vinas’ capture. The strike killed al-Qaida member Abdullah Azzam al-Saudi, who was reportedly a recruiter for the terrorist organization.

Vinas told authorities that he knew of an Abdullah Azzam, a law enforcement official told the AP, who spoke on the condition of anonymity because the official wasn’t authorized to speak publicly about the investigation.

Vinas’ attorney Len Kamdang declined comment Thursday.

Vinas, who grew up in the New York City suburbs on Long Island, was charged in court papers unsealed Wednesday with giving al-Qaida “expert advice and assistance” about New York’s transit system and with a rocket attack on U.S. forces in Afghanistan last year.

He pleaded guilty Jan. 28 to conspiring to murder U.S. nationals, supporting and receiving training from a foreign terrorist organization in a sealed courtroom in Brooklyn, according to a transcript of the hearing unsealed Thursday.

Vinas admitted to traveling to Pakistan in 2007 “with the intention of meeting and joining a jihadist group to fight American soldiers in Afghanistan,” the transcript read.

He said he took part in two “missions” in September 2008 to attack a U.S. military base near the Pakistan-Afghanistan border.

The first attack failed, Vinas said. A few days later, “I took part in firing rockets at an American military base. Although we intended to hit the military base and kill American soldiers, I was informed that the rockets missed and the attack failed.”

After crossing back into Pakistan, Vinas accepted an invitation to become a suicide bomber. He eventually landed in the mountainous region of Waziristan where he came into contact with members of al-Qaida. Around March 2008, Vinas said he was accepted into al-Qaida and began intensive training.

Vinas said he told top al-Qaida officials about the New York commuter rail he traveled on frequently “to help plan a bottom attack of the Long Island Rail Road system.” Law enforcement officials familiar with the case also said Vinas told investigators he heard discussions about targeting the Belgium metro system.

Vinas was interviewed this year in New York by Belgian prosecutors pursuing an anti-terror case against Malika El Aroud, Belgian prosecutors said.

El Aroud is the widow of a man involved in killing anti-Taliban warlord Ahmed Shah Massoud two days before the Sept. 11, 2001, terrorist attacks.

Vinas’ testimony was being submitted to a closed court hearing on Friday in Belgium to evaluate whether El Aroud and five others should remain in custody. The six are charged with belonging to a terrorist organization, which Belgian officials say is part of an al-Qaida group plotting new attacks either in Europe or elsewhere.

____

Comment by robiscrazy
2009-07-23 23:17:45

The courses he took sound almost like a CIA curriculum. Which makes me think…..if you are a CIA operative working in another country and you blow stuff up, kill people, or destabilize governments and economies are you not a terrorist in the eyes of that target nation?

Comment by jeff saturday
2009-07-24 06:05:08

Rob
In WW2 the allied bombing of Germany switched from factories and infrastructure to the landing areas in Normandy and other costal areas like the Pas de Calais for deception. The Germans used this time to build tanks, guns and missles that produced the battle of the bulge and the vengeance rockets that hit London.
“Vinas said he told top al-Qaida officials about the New York commuter rail he traveled on frequently “to help plan a bottom attack of the Long Island Rail Road system.” Law enforcement officials familiar with the case also said Vinas told investigators he heard discussions about targeting the Belgium metro system.”
IMHO I would not switch the CIA focus, no matter what “that target nation” thought.

Comment by robiscrazy
2009-07-24 15:25:42

Good point.

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