July 29, 2009

Bits Bucket For July 29, 2009

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518 Comments »

Comment by Muggy
2009-07-29 06:09:55

“PINELLAS COUNTY (Bay News 9) — Pinellas County school leaders are trying to avoid more budget cuts.One way to do that may be to raise taxes.”

Hmm, let’s see… ah, yes! Let’s raise taxes!

Comment by palmetto
2009-07-29 06:13:28

Amazing, isn’t it? Governments everywhere from the Fed to the locals are all in a hot swivet over budget cuts and raising taxes, right in the middle of the worst economic downturn since the Great Depression. Is there no end to the insanity? Yep, things are bad, people are losing jobs, money’s tight, so let’s raise taxes!! Morons.

Makes me sick to my stomach.

Comment by Arizona Slim
2009-07-29 08:16:40

Here in Tucson, the city mothers and fathers put through some tax increases, including those that are already levied on utility bills. Well, once that went through, ole Slim got motivated.

I’d been thinking of replacing my incandescent lightbulbs with compact fluorescents, which use a lot less wattage. So, off to the Home Depot I went, and I picked up 12 CFLs.

Well, I’m here to tell you that I no longer have to light up half the house just so I can sit on the living room couch and read. Two lamps with the 14 watt CFLs are all I need.

Back in the bad old incandescent days, I had to have five 60-watt bulbs providing the same amount of light. So, for my beloved evening readathons, I’m only needing 28 watts instead of 300. That should show up in the electric bill before too long.

Take that, city!

Comment by DennisN
2009-07-29 10:05:31

All my nightlights - necessary to avoid stepping on cats in the dark - are now blue LED panels. About 1 W each.

I have a white LED rope light set going down the baseboards of my stairs. I think the total wattage is about 7 W.

CLFs have the issue of taking a few minutes to “warm up” until they emit max. brightness, so for closet lights etc., where they are turned on and off quickly and for a short period, I leave regular incandescents in place.

I’m guessing that the CFL will probably go away once LEDs get cheap.

My homebuilder got himself “energy star certified” and it really shows. My electric bill last month (17 June - 17 July) was $56, most of which I’m sure went to the central A/C.

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Comment by NYCityBoy
2009-07-29 10:52:03

I’m guessing that the CFL will probably go away once LEDs get cheap.

The Canadian Football League is a joke anyway. Good riddance. I never new light emitting diodes could destroy a sports league.

 
Comment by Ian
2009-07-29 16:08:59

Sadly… per Jevon’s theorem your electricity savings will now favor a quite perverse economic diversification process…

http://www.time.com/time/nation/article/0,8599,1913401,00.html?xid=rss-topstories-cnnpartner

 
 
Comment by Cowtown
2009-07-29 10:56:39

CFLs contain mercury, so please be sure to dispose of them properly.

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Comment by Suzyk
2009-07-29 19:37:43

Wanna get scared? Just ask your friends, family and co-workers how they dispose of them or how to clean up one if you break it. No thanks on the mercury, I get enough in the fish I eat..I’ll keep my incandescents.

 
 
 
Comment by sfbubblebuyer
2009-07-29 08:45:23

It’s ridiculous how government never ever EVER shrinks, no matter how lean the times get. If there was a mandatory 50% pay cut for legislators any time the budget is in the red and a clause where raising taxes inflicted a permanent pay cut of twice the taxes, maybe they’d learn to try and make sure the current budget is efficiently used.

Comment by sleepless_near_seattle
2009-07-29 08:53:48

Where do I sign the petition to get it on the ballot?

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Comment by neuromance
2009-07-29 18:28:30

They’ll shake the voodoo rattles at you, promising doom and destruction if government ever dare shrink. The public will be appropriately frightened and the issue won’t be discussed again.

Sounds like 1) Iraq and 2) the bailouts, and 3) the Fed Audit.

Works like a charm.

 
 
Comment by DennisN
2009-07-29 10:06:33

There’s nothing so permanent as a temporary government agency.

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Comment by patient renter
2009-07-29 10:11:01

CA is a good example of why you shouldn’t bother with taxes, fees or debt. We’ve had 2 or 3 budget crisis rounds in less than a year (with more to come). Having raised taxes and fees during the first crisis, and borrowing in each crisis, we eventually hit the point where no additional taxing or borrowing could be done and the real cuts had to ensue. But we sure lost a lot of money in the meantime.

Moral of the story: The end result is likely to be cuts, so you may as well get on with them from the outset.

 
 
Comment by palmetto
2009-07-29 06:17:44

Oh, and by the way, I’m all for weight reduction in government workers at all levels. Plus training to make them move faster.

Comment by cobaltblue
2009-07-29 06:36:25

“Oh, and by the way, I’m all for weight reduction in government workers at all levels. Plus training to make them move faster.”

Very good start, but I’m also in favor of requiring all government employees, including Turbo Tax Tim and the entire staff of CNBC, to pay a special noxious gas tax surcharge of 50% of their income, to offset the dangerous emissions coming out of their mouths. Janeane Garofalo, Oprah Winfrey, and Adrianna Huffington, of course, would be considered bona fide government employees for tax purposes.

For Al Gore, a lifetime designation as a National Disaster, to be taxed at 100%, seems fair to me.

Comment by LehighValleyGuy
2009-07-29 06:45:20

CB, we need a special archive just for your posts. I’d even pay to access it.

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Comment by cobaltblue
2009-07-29 07:19:08

Every day and in every way, The Housing Bubble remains THE premier choice of blogging by the planet’s thinking people!

You heard it here first.

 
Comment by First
2009-07-29 07:39:36

Actually, I sort of agree. I would impose a tax on you or Fox news to post, and also charge people a tax to read them. Anyone on CNBC could post for free. ; )

 
Comment by DinOR
2009-07-29 07:40:19

cobaltblue,

So true. FPSS liked to discuss the “connectedness” of things and I really defy anyone out there to show how ‘most’ of what we’re confronting ‘isn’t’ related to this living nightmare?

Love everyone’s -anger- out there today btw!

 
Comment by LehighValleyGuy
2009-07-29 07:44:13

“I would impose a tax on you or Fox news to post, and also charge people a tax to read them”

Too late. I’ve already proposed a $5 tax on blog posts ($10 if it’s a post calling for higher taxes– except for this one). The reception has been lukewarm, to put it politely.

 
Comment by SanFranciscoBayAreaGal
2009-07-29 07:53:52

Dang First,

You beat me to it.

 
Comment by SanFranciscoBayAreaGal
2009-07-29 07:58:08

Can we also tax O’Reilly, Beck, Hannity, Coulter to name a few?

 
Comment by exeter
2009-07-29 08:06:39

No need to tax the moonbat fringe. They’re fading slowing all on their one.

 
Comment by lavi d
2009-07-29 08:10:54

Can we also tax O’Reilly, Beck, Hannity, Coulter to name a few?

Maybe they could do a cap-and-trade with Stewart, Colbert and Mahr?

 
Comment by edgewaterjohn
2009-07-29 08:11:19

The characters that SFgal lists are also gov’t employees. They just play a different role. It all depends on what they need at the moment - your blood or your money.

 
Comment by First
2009-07-29 08:27:06

So true. FPSS liked to discuss the “connectedness” of things and I really defy anyone out there to show how ‘most’ of what we’re confronting ‘isn’t’ related to this living nightmare?
———————————————–

I would respond to this, but its so vague, and doesn’t really address anything specifically. Yes, things are connected . . . what “living nightmare” are you referring to? I thought the republican ticket for presidency was a living nightmare, actually and am so glad we have Obama now. I am very afraid of Palin’s ability to rabble rouse people to violence, and that is a living nightmare to me. The far right is definitely connected to riling up those who don’t have much education and creating a living nightmare where they can. Lying about WMDs and getting us into an endless war is also a living nightmare.

 
Comment by DinOR
2009-07-29 08:36:20

First,

Wow, actually none of the above, although I’m sure there are blogs that address that.

( From cobaltblue’s post above )

“Every day and in every way, The Housing Bubble remains THE premier choice of blogging by the planet’s thinking people!”

How is it possible to misconstrue that such as you have? Just curious.

 
Comment by LehighValleyGuy
2009-07-29 08:37:15

“Can we also tax O’Reilly, Beck, Hannity, Coulter to name a few?”

I’ve often wondered about the 16th Amdt. and the so-called “general police power” of the legislature. It seems like we’ve really just replaced a monarchy with a committee, to allow the plebes to fantasize about controlling the world and taxing and regulating anyone they don’t like. “Live and let live” isn’t on the table.

 
Comment by X-philly
2009-07-29 08:37:29

I am very afraid of Palin’s ability to rabble rouse people to violence,

When did Palin rabble rouse anyone to violence?

 
Comment by LehighValleyGuy
2009-07-29 08:42:09

“The far right is definitely connected to riling up those who don’t have much education and creating a living nightmare where they can. Lying about WMDs and getting us into an endless war is also a living nightmare.”

OK, First, I think we understand your political affiliation. Maybe you can explain why the enlightened, educated set now in power doesn’t get us out of the endless war.

 
Comment by az_lender
2009-07-29 09:31:37

Agree the CNBC crowd are govt shills.

Agree O’Reilly and Beck and Hannity are fringe loonies, but I don’t agree they are govt shills. They would probably love to do away w/ all sources of govt revenue.

 
Comment by SanFranciscoBayAreaGal
2009-07-29 09:32:25

Ummm to be fair the far left has no problem with trying to rabble rouse people to violence also.

 
Comment by First
2009-07-29 09:42:34

SF Gal, how is the far left rabble rousing to violence? I’m not saying they aren’t, just asking. Probably anyone on the far side of either side will create problems.

To whoever asked, it was widely reported that a Sarah Palin rallies, people would shout out that Obama was dangerous and should be harmed, and she would do nothing to stop it. Also, I am thinking of the abortion doctor who was recently murdered, although I do not connect that with her.

I also don’t think it is fair to ask why Obama hasn’t solved all the nightmares he was handed in his 6 months in office.

Actually, I just wanted to add some balance to this post, since at first it seemed unbalanced, and we don’t all think the same. That’s all. Not trying to make it a huge political blog.

I just was suprised that taxing people with different opinions was considered a good idea.

Anyway, have a great day everyone. Must work now. Like everyone else I really appreciate this blog.

 
Comment by DinOR
2009-07-29 10:14:31

exeter,

If these people are so readily dismissed.., why waste any breath on them? Look, if you’re not a fan of Michelle M@lkin, that’s fine. But “moonbat” is her’s and her’s alone.

She’s been using it for years. This is so typical, liberals diss’ on cons. commentators and then adopt and deploy the very same phrases and tactics they’re criticizing?

Please coin your own phrases.

 
Comment by X-philly
2009-07-29 10:32:18

First:

“It was widely reported that…”

link please.

Here’s a link to speech which advocated gang rape against Palin. http://thesuperficial.com/2008/10/sandra_bernhard_banned_from_be.php

With friends like these, the left doesn’t need enemies.

 
Comment by lavi d
2009-07-29 10:32:31

No need to tax the moonbat fringe. They’re fading slowing all on their one.

Hey, get your epithets straight:

Moonbats == extreme left wingers
Wingnuts == extreme right wingers

 
Comment by exeter
2009-07-29 11:25:26

MOONBATS

 
Comment by desertdweller
2009-07-29 11:34:50

http://thesuperficial.com/2008/10/sandra_bernhard_banned_from_be.php

With friends like these, the left doesn’t need enemies

Philly, for petesake, this isn’t the left. This person/”comedienne” is a nutjob whose friend used to be madonna. DON”T go using that tripe and rubbish as an example for smart people to the left of center.
That isn’t fair. Gosh, so many examples of the “family values” still getting caught having affairs..blah blah blah.

Nice example of pulling crap outa a hole. Sheesh.

Stop it you guys. You slam indescriminately.

 
Comment by baabaabooie
2009-07-29 11:49:24

“The far right is definitely connected to riling up those who don’t have much education and creating a living nightmare where they can. Lying about WMDs and getting us into an endless war is also a living nightmare.”

I always amaze that the uneducated people are in the republican Party but all the smart liberals never have jobs or at least jobs with health insurance. Then they are in love with idiots like Obama, Pelosi, Dodd, Frank, ie Elemer Fudd!

 
Comment by X-philly
2009-07-29 13:00:25

desertdweller,

That wasn’t an indiscriminate slam at all. It was ONE example of a pattern of misogynistic abuse directed at a female candidate in the last presidential election. Hillary suffered her share as well. I was never a fan of hers but was astonished at the vitriol directed at her by 0bamamedia and the followers swept up in the ecstasy of his cult.

The fact that Sandra Bernhard believed she could get away with hate speech against Sarah Palin is testament to the “wink and a nod” approval that any celebrity who trashed Palin enjoyed. (Frankly, I’m stunned that you would defend a purported joke about gang rape.)

And it didn’t stop after the election yielded the Left’s desired result. David Letterman also believed the Palin family - minor females only - were fair game long after she had been defeated. Didn’t work out too well for him either.

My post was in reply to a comment about Palin inciting violence. That comment is still unsupported by any credible source. So who’s the one engaging in indiscriminate slamming?

 
Comment by lavi d
2009-07-29 14:12:04

I was never a fan of hers but was astonished at the vitriol directed at her by 0bamaLimbaughmedia and the followers swept up in the ecstasy of his cult.

Fixed that for ya.

 
Comment by X-philly
2009-07-29 14:35:50

Rush wasn’t running for office.

Numerous websites sprang up chronicling the attacks levelled against both HRC and Sarah Palin. Criticism of the candidates’ appearance, policies - to be expected and really nothing to cause alarm. But speech threatening rape against a candidate, or in the case of one professor who described his wish to rape Sarah Palin - that is just vile. If those comments were directed against a person of color, it would be considered hate speech and grounds for prosecution.

I can find the link to the professor’s ill-considered article, if anyone doesn’t believe me, a little web-digging will locate it. It’s the end of my work day, and I am out.

 
Comment by lavi d
2009-07-29 14:52:06

Rush wasn’t running for office.

Googled:

“palin campaign incites violence”

and

“obama campaign incites violence”

100% of the first page results are opinion pieces, comments and bloggers, but none of them mention Obama vs. H Clinton as your earlier comment suggested.

 
Comment by kirisdad
2009-07-29 15:06:52

Way to go X !!! beautifully done.

 
Comment by exeter
2009-07-29 16:24:00

“100% of the first page results are opinion pieces, comments and bloggers, but none of them mention Obama vs. H Clinton as your earlier comment suggested.”

Imagine that!!!! lmao.

 
Comment by lavi d
2009-07-29 16:54:12

Imagine that!!!! lmao.

Yeah. Because, as we know, the internet is run by libruls.

Gore didn’t build in access for troublemaking conserv’tivs because they already had the entire AM dial.

Well, at least the parts that the Mexicans didn’t want.

:)

 
Comment by exeter
2009-07-29 18:10:50

dam dem dar librulls!

AM radio? The TheoCons really are embracing new technology… Go TheoCons!

 
 
Comment by edgewaterjohn
2009-07-29 07:19:18

I for one applaud you for correctly labeling CNBC employees as gov’t workers - because for all intents and purposes, that’s what they are. Call it like it is.

For a fun exercise in your spare time, try overlaying the cast of characters listed above onto Gramsci’s theory of Cultural Hegemony.

Take the red pill.

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Comment by First
2009-07-29 07:28:45

You want to tax free speech? It costs $$$ to say anything you don’t agree with? Yikes.

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Comment by DennisN
2009-07-29 10:11:09

Huffington is a special case. She was far right until her dear hubby came home and told her he was gay and wanted a divorce. She then flipped out and became far left. I wonder what she really thinks.

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Comment by Groundhogday
2009-07-29 11:39:55

She is simply extreme. Same with O’Reilly and Olbermann. Both the far left and far right share a self-righteous sense of superiority. If you want reason and thought, look somewhere else.

 
Comment by exeter
2009-07-29 12:14:40

“Huffington is a special case. She was far right until her dear hubby came home and told her he was gay and wanted a divorce. She then flipped out and became far left. I wonder what she really thinks.”

And he was far right too.

Sex, lies, drugs…….. so typical of a gop politician. All the while demonizing the rest of the planet for their heathen ways.

 
Comment by packman
2009-07-29 13:38:38

“Huffington is a special case. She was far right until her dear hubby came home and told her he was gay and wanted a divorce. She then flipped out and became far left. I wonder what she really thinks.”

Which to me indicates in actuality she’s neither far left nor far right, but merely an opportunist.

As are most of these flamboyant talking heads.

 
Comment by SanFranciscoBayAreaGal
2009-07-29 14:38:37

Well all those flamboyant heads got us talking didn’t they?

 
Comment by Olympiagal
2009-07-29 15:48:40

Well all those flamboyant heads got us talking didn’t they?

If only we could slap them. I often try, but that stupid flat screen balks my best efforts.
Sigh.

 
 
Comment by desertdweller
2009-07-29 11:28:28

Actually, I sort of agree. I would impose a tax on you or Fox news to post, and also charge people a tax to read them. Anyone on CNBC could post for free. ; )

Affirmative.

Never heard so much drivel coming from those stations. OMG.

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Comment by pressboardbox
2009-07-29 06:44:16

Local governments are the worst kind of FB. They just built (or are still building) big shiny new police stations, fire stations, courthouses, administration buildings, maintenance facilitices, and bought new vehicles and equipment of every imaginable type. Now they have to make the payments. Foreclosure is not an option. You will be paying for the excesses of your leaders for the rest of your days. Now get back to work, THEY are counting on you. -and stop wasting time posting on this blog.

 
Comment by Professor Bear
2009-07-29 07:04:49

According to one local expert, the housing market will lead the San Diego economy out of its recession over the next year, despite a 10% plus unemployment rate that is scheduled to keep increasing to the 11%-12% range, then stay high until 2011. Hummmm…

County’s economy perks up
Positive index signs don’t include employment rate
By Dean Calbreath
Union-Tribune Staff Writer

2:00 a.m. July 29, 2009

“ . . . I’d be very cautious about estimating a bottom of market.”

MARK GOLDMAN, mortgage broker for Cobalt Financial

With local home construction, stock prices and consumer confidence on the rise for the third month in a row, San Diego County’s economy seems to be on the road to recovery, according to an index of economic indicators released yesterday by the Burnham-Moores Center for Real Estate at the University of San Diego.

But unemployment, which surged over the 10 percent mark last month, will likely remain high for months after the recovery begins, said USD economist Alan Gin.

“The employment situation remains grim,” Gin said. “I think unemployment will hit 11-12 percent later this year, and we probably won’t come back from that until 2011.”

Gin said the three-month run of positive data from the index indicates that the local economy has hit a major turning point, indicating that the downturn will hit bottom by mid-2010. He said rising home sales and the impact of the federal stimulus package will be among the factors that help the economy stabilize.

CLICK!

Comment by NYCityBoy
2009-07-29 07:39:35

Just think of the disillusionment we are going to see if we see another big leg down. This economy is like a 600 pound man tip-toeing through a mine field. It all seems okay for a while and then KABOOM!!!!

Comment by DinOR
2009-07-29 07:51:52

NYCityBoy,

But as Professor Bear points out, this really IS the mindset out there! These people don’t want a -turn around- in the economy! They don’t want any kind of bona-fide growth engine!?

( They want 2005 to come back and for things to be like that forever ) THAT’S what they ‘want’!

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Comment by edgewaterjohn
2009-07-29 08:14:53

How true. Building new industries takes sacrifice and years of profitless operation and R&D.

Shuffling houses, however, was instant gratification for too many.

 
Comment by DinOR
2009-07-29 08:49:42

edgewaterjohn,

Thank you, not to mention a lot of BS&T’s. Locally, Portland made a feigned attempt at making themselves the “Bio-Tech Capitol” and… when they got a little competition from towns that actually -have- schools, they quickly re-grouped and declared we’d become “The Green Industry Capitol”.

It’s all just lip-service to make cons. believe they’re actually working on something? The truth is ( as a major transhipment point on I-5 ) we are ( or rather were ) a Trucking Hub! But having Freightliner and Les Schwab Tires just didn’t sound ‘cool’ enough? Certainly not cool enough to charge $500 a s/f for a “loft”?

 
Comment by desertdweller
2009-07-29 11:41:54

hey DinOR, hot up there? You have no idea, but for OR, that heat must be amazing.

I agree that the majority of MSM and citizens do Not want to put in the years of hard work to get things on track again. Instant gratification-sell my house-buy some trinkets-buy another house- add granite- mix. Stir up and do again.

Our citizens and some here on the hbb want this potus to instantly do the same. Fix instantly or we will bash,criticize,threaten, lie, and distort to ‘our’ hearts content.

Raise your hands, who here as real 6pack abs? It takes hard work to get those, same as fixing what got broken.

Now lets vote them out of congress and senate and start over. Take a break and turn the knob off on the faux noise channel. Just say No. Push away from the table.

 
Comment by Arizona Slim
2009-07-29 12:31:47

Slim’s dad has 6pack abs. And he’s 84.

As for me, no 6pack abs. Oh, well.

 
Comment by lavi d
2009-07-29 12:39:07

Raise your hands, who here as real 6pack abs?

My abs are well-hidden under several thousand 18-packs.

 
Comment by DinOR
2009-07-29 12:56:21

desertdweller,

Years… of hard work?

They don’t want to do ANY! Agreed, “Stir up and do again”, hey, works for me?

And that’s the problem. The whole debate has been centered around “What can we do to get ‘housing’ back on track!?” Oh.., let’s be honest, no one gives a rip about ‘housing’ at this point. What they really mean is; “What can we do to get the easy money ‘profits’ rolling again?”

So we wasted precious time and endless resources trying to fix the House ATM ( and no, I don’t think it would’ve been one lick better under McCain )

None of these people would care if it were Harley’s or beanie-babies for that matter? Let’s just get on w/ our new ponzi so we can get back to scoring chicks and adorning ourselves w/ trinkets!

 
Comment by X-GSfixer
2009-07-29 13:31:11

“……years of hard work to put things on track again….”

I’ll disagree with the conventional wisdom on this blog, which is that everyone in the US ia a lazy dumba$$.

The thing that pi$$es me off the most is that a lot of people have been working harder and harder for less and less return (minimal raises, cost shifting by employers, inflation, etc.), and didn’t participate in any of this.

Now, we are expected to work even harder, and ante up to pay for the damage, at the party we weren’t invited to.

 
Comment by SanFranciscoBayAreaGal
2009-07-29 14:58:45

Thank you X-GSfixer.

I know plenty of people who are working their asses off. Contrary to popular belief on this blog I know plenty of people who work hard while working for the government.

 
Comment by Reddy
2009-07-29 20:41:02

I work hard for the government, but most of my job is filling out endless paperwork with a little real work mixed in. Of course, every bit of real work requires more paperwork. If we do much more real work, we’ll have to hire more people to do the paperwork.

 
 
Comment by Professor Bear
2009-07-29 08:04:55

“…disillusionment we are going to see…”

Looking on the bright side, interest rates are likely to remain low for a protracted period of time, which is very useful for corporate entities issuing debt.

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Comment by Professor Bear
2009-07-29 08:06:51

Case in point:

Bond Report

Jul 29, 2009, 10:49 a.m. EST
Treasurys rise as durable-goods orders slide
By Nick Godt, MarketWatch

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) — Treasury prices rose on Wednesday, sending yields lower, after the government reported that orders for durable goods sank much more in June than economists expected.

 
Comment by DinOR
2009-07-29 08:52:12

PB,

Do recall the whackjob quoted on SeekingAlpha that declared ( back in ‘05 ) “We’ll have low-interest rates and a global liquidity GLUT for the foreseeable future!” ?

( I wonder if ‘this’ is what he meant? )

 
Comment by Professor Bear
2009-07-29 11:40:33

I am not sure how one should judge the success of Treasury bond auctions, given that the Fed might be goosing demand from behind the curtain.

Wall Street Journal

* JULY 29, 2009, 2:13 P.M. ET

UPDATE: Treasurys Prices Sink Following 5-Year Auction

(Updates market prices, adds background and impact on stocks.)

By Emily Barrett

Of DOW JONES NEWSWIRES

NEW YORK (Dow Jones)–Treasurys prices fell across the board on a disappointing result from the Treasury’s latest record fund-raising effort.

The $39 billion auction of new 2.625% five-year bonds - the largest such sale ever - wasn’t bid heavily enough to prevent the government paying a higher rate on its borrowing. The yield on the new notes was 2.689%, compared with 2.63% in premarket trade.

The results were discouraging enough for investors to offload Treasurys. The two-year bond price has bounced off its lows following the auction, but is still down 3/32 to yield 1.18%. The 10-year is back at breakeven for 3.69%. Yields move inversely to prices.

Demand at the auction was certainly cooler than hoped, particularly given the sheer volume of debt the government must sell to fund its economic stimulus efforts. If these higher borrowing costs are the start of a trend, that project will be all the more expensive.

The statistics certainly weren’t as pretty as the last auction of five-year notes, in June, when the ferocity of bidding took the market by surprise, and seemed to put to rest fears that investors could be souring on U.S. debt.

Bids at this auction exceeded the amount on offer by 1.92 times, the lowest since September last year, and well below the 2.58 seen last month. Indirect bids, which are a gauge of participation among foreign central banks, came in at 36.7%, better than the 35.7% average of the last 12 auctions, but nowhere near the 62.8% seen at the June auction.

The market had been braced for a poor performance, following a surprisingly tepid reception for the $42 billion sale of two-year notes the day before. Now investors are getting worried about the prospects for Thursday’s $28 billion sale of seven-year paper.

“Today’s definitely not-good five-year auction really raises the bar in terms of negative expectations for tomorrow’s seven-year auction,” noted Miller Tabak & Co. strategist Dan Greenhaus.

 
 
Comment by sfbubblebuyer
2009-07-29 08:50:21

Then we’re a 490 pound man hopping through a mine field, hoping to keep our second leg intact and then KABOOM PART DEUX!!!

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Comment by Sleepr Cell
2009-07-29 12:14:49

“It all seems okay for a while and then KABOOM!!!!”

LOL

Like Mr Creasote in Monty Pythons “The Meaning of Life”

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Comment by salinasron
2009-07-29 07:10:44

“One way to do that may be to raise taxes.”

No, no, no, raise more pink tents for classrooms.

Comment by Arizona Slim
2009-07-29 08:19:37

Oh, for pete’s sake.

Have you ever met any of the Lost Boys from Sudan? You know how those fellas first went to school?

Well, they started out in refugee camps. In tents. And, when they weren’t in class, they were scratching out their lessons. In the dirt.

Ever gone to school with one of those guys in this country? They’re the most happy-to-be-there, motivated students on the campus. And they’re good students too.

 
 
Comment by SDGreg
2009-07-29 07:59:33

Or you you can do what California’s doing, withholding more tax than will be owed, effectively giving the state an interest-free loan from taxpayers:

http://www3.signonsandiego.com/stories/2009/jul/28/budget-full-tricks-analyst-says/?uniontrib

“You have accounting tricks like moving employee salaries out a day, deferral of school aid and withholding acceleration increases by 10 percent,” he said of some of the tactics. “All of these are just borrowing money out of the future.”

“Acceleration increases involve raising income tax collections by increasing withholding by 10 percent. Taxpayers will get to reclaim the money during tax season. The strategy amounts to an interest-free loan for the state.”

Every one of these gluttonous pigs needs to be recalled or voted out at the next election. There isn’t a single member of the California legislature that deserves to keep their job.

Comment by SanFranciscoBayAreaGal
2009-07-29 09:34:31

I agree. Also good ole Arnie. Thank god he will be termed out.

Comment by alpha-sloth
2009-07-29 09:45:34

Do you think he would run again? If I were him, I’d be happy as a clam to be putting that job in my Hummer’s rear-view mirror.

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Comment by NYCityBoy
2009-07-29 10:56:21

He and his wife can go back to their career as He-Man and Skeletor impersonators.

 
Comment by Olympiagal
2009-07-29 12:42:21

He and his wife can go back to their career as He-Man and Skeletor impersonators.

Hhahahaha! Comical!

 
 
 
 
 
Comment by wmbz
2009-07-29 06:15:55

Banks Asked to Ramp Up Loan Help
U.S. Wants 500,000 Mortgage Modifications by Nov. 1; Firms Ask for Clarity. Washington Post Wednesday, July 29, 2009

Senior administration officials pressed executives from the nation’s largest banks Tuesday to speed help to distressed borrowers after a frustrating start to the government’s foreclosure-prevention effort and set a goal of more than doubling the number of homeowners receiving aid by November.

After a series of meetings with top banking executives, Treasury Department officials said they want lenders to modify 500,0000 mortgages by Nov. 1. Since the program, known as Making Home Affordable, began in March, it has recorded about 200,000 loan modifications.

But more than 1 million borrowers received default notices during the first half of the year, and falling home prices and rising unemployment are pushing ever more homeowners into delinquency.

Under the initiative, the government is offering subsidies to help lenders offset the cost of lowering mortgage payments for distressed borrowers.

Officials from the Treasury and the Department of Housing and Urban Development discussed with the banking executives ways to get aid to borrowers more quickly. Lenders asked the government to clarify which borrowers are eligible and to simplify the program, according to industry officials briefed on the meetings. Administration officials again urged lenders to hire more staff to keep up with demand from borrowers seeking loan modifications and reminded the executives that the program is a White House priority, according to participants in the meetings.

Comment by wmbz
2009-07-29 06:20:47

Subprime mortgage companies warn on U.S. foreclosures…

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Companies that service risky residential mortgages are warning U.S. officials that a key program to slow foreclosures may push some financing costs higher and derail their efforts, said a leading subprime firm.

Companies forming the Independent Mortgage Servicers Coalition, service many of the riskiest mortgages made during the housing boom, making them key players in programs to rein in foreclosures. The group collects and distributes payments on more than $700 billion in loans, according to its leader, Carrington Mortgage Services of Santa Ana, California.

Their concerns about financing payments for defaulted homeowners comes as pressure mounts from Congress, regulators and state legislators for servicers to do more for the plan, which aims to slow foreclosures and modify loans. The U.S. Treasury wants the companies to spend more on its resources, including hiring staff and expanding training programs.

At least four servicers from the coalition were among the 25 meeting with the Treasury on Tuesday, where new commitments were forged to increase foreclosure prevention efforts under President Obama’s Home Affordable Modification Program.

But manpower isn’t the main worry for the independent servicers, which don’t include large banks such as Wells Fargo & Co. Implementing the program means giving delinquent homeowners more time fix their loans, which to servicers will the boost costs of extending payments to investors as contractually promised.

Matching costs of servicing to public policy is growing increasingly difficult, said Bruce Rose, chief executive officer and general partner of Greenwich, Connecticut-based Carrington Capital Management, LLC, which owns CMS. Rose attended the meeting with Treasury.

“We are in a position where it’s a very tough balance act, and that’s weighing heavily on us now,” said Rose, in an interview on Monday. “This is a classic case of an unfunded government mandate.”

Comment by Professor Bear
2009-07-29 06:44:30

I thought the entire subprime mortgage lending sector had gone out of business. Are there actually still some subprime lenders left standing at this point?

Comment by sfbubblebuyer
2009-07-29 08:52:33

These are servicers. They don’t loan new money, they’re just collecting on the subprime mortgages that have yet to implode.

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Comment by polly
2009-07-29 16:13:43

The answer is that the lowest seniority bonds don’t get all their money. That is why they are trading at lower values - the risk of not being paid as scheduled went up as more loans defaulted.

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Comment by Prime_Is_Contained
2009-07-29 10:49:23

“This is a classic case of an unfunded government mandate.”

I thought the servicers were getting paid for every modification as part of the program. How is that an unfunded mandate??

 
 
Comment by jeff saturday
2009-07-29 07:02:02

Hues Corporation - Rock the Boat

Our Bank was like a ship on vacation
we’re now sailing with a cargo full of, modifications

So I’d like to know where, you got the loan now
said I’d like to know where, you got the loan now

Rob the bank, don’t rob the bank baby
rob the bank, don’t put the bank under
rob the bank, don’t rob the bank baby

Rock on with you bad self
ooooh hooo hooo
rock on with your bad self

Comment by DinOR
2009-07-29 07:53:45

LOL! After all these years, that God-awful song finally has a purpose!

Comment by X-philly
2009-07-29 08:24:08

Hey - you never “rock on with you bad self”?

It is awful, but it’s associated with a very happy time in my life, so it gets a pass.

Row yeah, row yeah, row yeah bay-bee…

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Comment by CarrieAnn
2009-07-29 09:41:00

Perhaps next, some 21st century updates for:

The Night Chicago Died.

 
Comment by X-philly
2009-07-29 10:33:40

Awfulness exceeded only by…

Gypsies, Tramps and Thieves?

 
 
 
Comment by SanFranciscoBayAreaGal
2009-07-29 08:02:48

Great Jeff.

Have to disagree with you DinOr. I like Rock the Boat. :)

Comment by DinOR
2009-07-29 08:55:16

SFBAGal,

Sadly, so does Mrs. DinOR.

“Oh, you’re not changing that station, ARE you!?”

( Hoping and praying none of your friends see you at the stop light? ) No, to those of us that worship at the Altar of the Guitar Gods, this was pretty much the death blow.

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Comment by CarrieAnn
2009-07-29 09:46:01

My kids are pretty darn happy that although Mom was into disposable dance tunes, Dad actually collected the stuff that was due to deemed classics.

Loverboy, anybody?

LOL

 
 
 
Comment by EggMan
2009-07-29 11:58:26

+10!

 
 
Comment by Leighsong
2009-07-29 08:19:21

Er…what part of investor’s portfollio doesn’t the White House understand?

The alphabet soup (MBS; CDO; etc) of tranches are not approving, albeit stupidly, these modifications.

More smoke blowing up public buttocks, me thinks.

Oy Vey,
Leigh

Comment by DinOR
2009-07-29 09:10:30

Leigh,

Well put. I can tell you from a retail securities perspective, very few of us will live long enough to see those “financial products” be well rec’d AGAIN!

There’s ( understandably ) NO trust in the rating agencies nor the firms that underwrote them. Investors want transparency going forward and if they get so much as a ‘wiff’ of something toxic, forget it.

 
 
Comment by Leighsong
2009-07-29 08:51:29

Test.

O.K. Having been posting lately - let me in you @$%#& filter!

Giggles,
Leigh

Comment by Arizona Slim
2009-07-29 08:55:25

You passed the test. Welcome back!

Comment by CarrieAnn
2009-07-29 09:49:22

I was just thinking about you the other day. Noticed the absence of curtsies. Hope all’s well.

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Comment by patient renter
2009-07-29 10:18:21

How many failed “pledges” do we need to suffer before the administration realizes what a pledge from a for-profit corporation is worth?

 
 
Comment by mikey
2009-07-29 06:21:33

Milwaukee downtown office vacancy rate at 19%
By Tom Daykin of the Journal Sentinel

Posted: July 28, 2009

It’s not just condo buildings with empty spaces to fill in downtown Milwaukee.

The vacancy rate for Milwaukee’s downtown office market stood at 19.1% at the end of June, according to a report Tuesday by Colliers International.

That is much higher than the U.S. average for downtown office vacancy rates, which was 13.7%, compared with 11.1% a year earlier, said Boston-based Colliers International, a network of commercial real estate brokerage firms that includes Milwaukee-based Colliers Barry.

The downtown vacancy rate was higher in Milwaukee than in some other Midwestern cities, including Chicago (15.2%), Cincinnati (17.4%), Detroit (16.5%), Indianapolis (15.5%) and Minneapolis (17.8%). However, both Kansas City (22%) and St. Louis (21.5%) fared worse than Milwaukee.

The Milwaukee area’s suburban office market vacancy rate was 16.5%, compared with 15.2% from the year-earlier period. The national average for suburban vacancy rates was 16.3%, up from 14.3%.

But what stood out in the report was downtown Milwaukee’s vacancy rate. Colliers International said it increased from 15.9% a year ago. But David Barry of Colliers Barry said that is a mistake by Colliers International. Barry said last year’s rate was around 19%, adding that there have been no major changes in the downtown office market since 2008.

Still, longtime Milwaukee developer Joel Lee, who owns downtown office buildings, said the vacancy rate is as high as he’s ever seen. Lee agrees with Colliers International’s prediction of more increases in office vacancy rates for the rest of 2009.

“It’s going to get worse before it gets better,” Lee said.

Little job growth
The recession is taking its toll on Milwaukee, said Mike Mervis, spokesman for Towne Investments, which operates older downtown office buildings.

“You lose population, you lose businesses, you lose office space,” Mervis said. Even so, he said Towne’s buildings are holding up well, given the economy.

Milwaukee has seen little job growth in recent years, said William Bonifas of the local office of CB Richard Ellis Inc., which provides brokerage and other commercial real estate services.

Aside from the 2007 migration of Manpower Inc.’s headquarters from Glendale to downtown, Milwaukee hasn’t had much success in attracting outside firms, particularly from beyond Wisconsin, Bonifas said. He said the state’s high taxes have hurt recruitment efforts.”

I just mentioned Wisconsin’s higher taxes, unemployment, and the Exodus of jobs and people in my rant yesterday. Perhaps everyone in the our lMSM isn’t sound alseep at their desks !
:)

http://tinyurl.com/l9z7wu

Comment by edgewaterjohn
2009-07-29 07:27:53

Thanks for updates on WI.

Made two trips to Milwaukee this month. Reading the condo ads in the JS was funny, still trawling for the Chi-town suckers and suburban empty nesters.

Downtown MKE never ceases to amaze me. Can a city build an economy around summer festivals?

Comment by InMontana
2009-07-29 08:37:09

LOL. they’re all sure as hell trying, aren’t they? I know every burg in Montana has some sort of festival or boogie or “(fill in the blank) Days” now. And since very little thinking here is original, I assume the inspirations coming from everywhere else.

Comment by sfbubblebuyer
2009-07-29 08:55:17

They’re obviously all jealous of Butte’s St. Patrick’s Day event, the “Barf in the Streets Festival of Sights, Sounds, and Smells”

Yah, I grew up there.

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Comment by DennisN
2009-07-29 10:14:18

The only real St. Paddy’s Day celebration is in Boston. People get drunk in the streets, clutching pitchers of green beer. I’ve seen Boston cops on horseback on St. Paddy’s day riding down the street with a plastic cup in hand. :)

 
Comment by sfbubblebuyer
2009-07-29 12:20:08

Dennis, I beg to differ. Boston’s may have a higher quality of drunk, but Butte has green beer in pitchers, four lane streets completely blocked from drunk people spilling out of the more popular bars (the vu villa in particular), and on duty cops drinking beer as well. The population of the town doubles.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3vAAqo2V8E8

The link will probably kill this response, but there’s a video showing a little bit about what it’s like in Butte.

 
Comment by InMontana
2009-07-29 12:42:46

Hey Butte’s got the folk and blues festival now too ya know. ST Patty’s is not enough anymore.

 
 
Comment by edgewaterjohn
2009-07-29 08:56:20

Yes, and this fall Oktoberfests will multiply like rabbits.

Interesting topic: the interplay between the street festival and the economic boom.

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Comment by Arizona Slim
2009-07-29 09:03:33

We have a pretty snazzy Oktoberfest right in my neighborhood. Lady who’s an accordion teacher invites her fellow musicians and students over, and they set up in her carport.

And you should see my peeps get up and dance. Over there you have the couple of women who run the neighborhood association. (Yes, they are married, even though Arizona doesn’t recognize it). Then there’s drunken Pete. Man, I would love to see that guy sober sometime.

Uh-oh, there’s Dennis with his latest girlfriend. Wonder how long this one’s gonna last.

Then there’s Cheryl, dancing with a big tough-looking Hispanic guy with lots of tattoos. Not to worry, that’s her husband.

And, with any luck, we just might get Chuck and Mom (everyone calls her that) up and dancing too.

 
Comment by edgewaterjohn
2009-07-29 09:06:48

I should add that street festivals especially complemented the rise of a specific facet of the boom - the urban condo.

There’s big bucks in commodifying the “Mardi Gras” lifestyle. Think for a moment about some of the festivals you’ve attended this past decade - have you noticed their proximity to condo developments/downtown renaissance projects?

A great example is the area just to the west of Milwaukee’s Maier Park (Summerfest). In a case where there wasn’t a neighborhood close to the festival - they built one - much of it from the ground up. Whole blocks of new condos meant to look like a little downtown.

 
Comment by alpha-sloth
2009-07-29 09:57:52

The people I know who own bars and restaurants in downtown areas hate the ’streetfests’. There’s no parking and their regulars just stay away. The crowds that replace them want to use their bathrooms (with the kids!) but buy their funnel cakes and plastic cups of beer from the vendors outside who undercut all their prices.

 
Comment by InMontana
2009-07-29 12:44:46

So I take it everyone else has Wednesday Out to Lunch, Thursday out to Dinner, New Year’s alcohol-free puppet shows and face painting etc too?

 
 
Comment by sleepless_near_seattle
2009-07-29 08:58:08

Oh snap, now you guys are going to get DinOR started! This is his big pet peeve.

BTW, DinOR, this week’s Fest Fest (thanks for that) was very well attended (Oregon Brew Fest). Mostly drunk frat boys, but what did you expect? Probably the easiest demographic to take money from.

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Comment by DinOR
2009-07-29 09:16:16

sleepless_near_seattle!

Thanks for remembering! And… from the look of things, the discontent is finally… starting to get some TRACTION!

I tired of going toe-to-toe w/ our local city mgr. and our new mayor, so I took to the airwaves and the host really let me ramble! I wish they had an audio link.

edgewaterjohn and mikey have it down to a “t”. It’s all totally fabricated, especially when you’ve invited to your 14th “2nd Annual Fill in the Blank Fest Fest” of the summer! Oh it doesn’t even have to be ’summer’, just not raining too hard.

 
Comment by sleepless_near_seattle
2009-07-29 09:29:13

“especially when you’ve invited to your 14th “2nd Annual Fill in the Blank Fest Fest” of the summer!”

So true. Two weeks ago they had the “INTERNATIONAL Brewer’s Fest.” So I sat there thinking, “WTF? Is THIS the one I usually go to or is it the OTHER one that I go to?”

I suppose the strategy is that I’ll be so confused I’ll have to go to BOTH…

 
Comment by DinOR
2009-07-29 09:50:57

sleepless_near_seattle,

DAMN that is funny! Yeah, in all the excitement, I kind of lost track myself?

I just wish it didn’t take a Great Depression II for these city mgrs. to see the FOLLY of their “events”? Nope, couldn’t be derailed by common sense or the realization that they’re just taking the same pie and cutting it into ever smaller slices?

Had to take GDII.

 
 
 
Comment by mikey
2009-07-29 08:52:39

The sheer arrogance of Milwaukee and it’s wasteful spending is still amazing. Forty years back, when they still had a real manufacturing base, they could sustain the wants and the needs of a blue and white collar population of about 80 to 100 thousand people. Those times are history and the Rust Belt Era continues and tourism isn’t going to Cut It.

But instead, they still think of themselves as a major league city, compare itself to a northern Chicago Great Lakes Industrial Port City and spend and waste resources and taxpay money accordingly. Heck, that boat left years ago and actual real cargo ships are barely moving in or out of the Port of Milwaukee.

The massive tax costs of the Milwaukee County Pension Scandal alone should have ruined the entire County and resulted in default and filing for bankruptcy. Sheesh, they seem to think that a taxpayer funded Monument to Stupidity tin covered baseball dome, State Fair cream Puffs, Summerfest along with flipping houses will sustain them and bring growth.

**Please come to Milwaukee State Fair and buy lots of Cream Puffs so the idiot PTB don’t fell slighted and deside that Milwaukee needs their OWN Pro Football Team to put them on the map and to get even with those evil folks up in Green Bay**
:)

Comment by DinOR
2009-07-29 09:22:01

mikey,

Not to pee on MKE’s parade, but that was the model pretty much every where. Other than a handful of hard-cases here, we not only let them do it to us, we actually cheered them on as they did it!

Trust me, there’s basically a “Festival Vendor Class” in Oregon. I talk to some of these guys for a goof. “Yep, gotta’ get the tent down, we’re headin’ up to 60’s Fest in Idaho! Hope it’s better up there?”

Is this what we wanted, to live like gypsies?

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Comment by mikey
2009-07-29 10:04:12

DinOR, forgive me and my rants. I followed another link yesterday with photos about them unbolting and shipping another company’s specialized manufacturing equipment to CHINA. This sort of stuff drives me completely bonkers for days and it only looks like a one man mikey parade. It always gets me hopping around mad and shouting like an insane person.

I think ALL Americans all over should be angrily marching and protesting in the streets as these greedy politicans corporations and business gurus gut that destroy what little is left of our US manufacturing base.

American manufacturing is an empty hollow shell of what it once was an it hurts old-timers like me to see it happening. I DON’T handle change like THIS very well !
:(

 
Comment by patient renter
2009-07-29 10:25:28

No worries Mikey, Big Brother is preparing a green energy service based job with your name on it, as we speak!

 
Comment by mikey
2009-07-29 10:30:21

“What you say Willard…I’m going to become a Jolly Green Giant… Green Bean” !?!”

 
Comment by Pinch-a-penny
2009-07-29 10:34:31

I have said this in the past.
The only way that we are going to get manufacturing back here, is to make companies comply with US regulations on wage, benefits, health, and environmental in order to sell your product here.
One question raised was that how could you enforce it?
Would we see an inspector at the gates a-la Iraq before the invasion….
Nah. We already HAVE the mechanism in place.. it is called the FDA.
The FDA visits companies that manufacture drugs over seas constantly. They have to comply with GMP. It goes something like this…
FDA inspector shows up… Company does not open the door. Inspector calls the FDA. Injuction is ordered, and no product from said company is sold, and all existing products are pulled from the market.
Granted that the FDA has NO power to regulate beyond the US border, but what they can, will, and have done is bar the manufacturer from selling products here. End of story.
Your rinky dink polluting company in china, no longer can sell their lead poisoned, polluting, low wage POS here…

 
Comment by Elanor
2009-07-29 11:19:15

The other way that manufacturing will come back is when wages and benefits here are similar to those in the Far East. It looks like that has a better chance of happening than making foreign companies comply with U.S. regulations. :(

 
Comment by packman
2009-07-29 11:23:32

I have said this in the past.
The only way that we are going to get manufacturing back here, is to make companies comply with US regulations on wage, benefits, health, and environmental in order to sell your product here.
One question raised was that how could you enforce it?
Would we see an inspector at the gates a-la Iraq before the invasion….
Nah. We already HAVE the mechanism in place.. it is called the FDA.
The FDA visits companies that manufacture drugs over seas constantly. They have to comply with GMP. It goes something like this…
FDA inspector shows up… Company does not open the door. Inspector calls the FDA. Injuction is ordered, and no product from said company is sold, and all existing products are pulled from the market.
Granted that the FDA has NO power to regulate beyond the US border, but what they can, will, and have done is bar the manufacturer from selling products here. End of story.
Your rinky dink polluting company in china, no longer can sell their lead poisoned, polluting, low wage POS here…

+Eleventybillion

 
Comment by Al
2009-07-29 11:24:29

Pinch,

There are a lot more manufacturing companies than there are drug companies. And you can be that a banned company will simply pass the goods off to one that isn’t. I like the idea, but there are too many easy work-arounds. And of course, the last thing that’s needed is a new, massive government agency.

The best solution I can come up with is to only trade with countries that have environmental/labour standards that are equivalent. Being sure that such standards are met becomes the new challenge.

 
Comment by DinOR
2009-07-29 12:13:18

Al,

I agree. One encouraging aspect I’m seeing of late is the revival of salesmanship. Go into virtually any retail establishment and you’ll be asked “Can I help you find anything?!” at least (3) times.

“I” happen to see this as pivotal. No one wants to “lead on price” any more and the only way to do that is to SELL! Many of the jobs went offshore b/c we forgot to teach the younger gen. how to sell!

 
Comment by Arizona Slim
2009-07-29 12:33:34

Preach it, DinOR. I’ve found that, since The Recession has crept across the land, sales skills have become very important. My little biz has been a good learning lab for this activity.

Oh, one more thing. Improving the quality of what you offer. That can help sales too.

 
Comment by X-GSfixer
2009-07-29 13:44:18

“…..make companies (countries) comply with US regulations…….”

Will. Never. Happen.

It violates their “national sovereignty”, you see. And our government, in it’s infinite wisdom, has signed numerous treaties accepting another countriy’s regulatory decisions as equivalent to our own.

But “National Sovereignty” is a dirty word around here. Every little pi$$ant country thinks they deserve veto power over everything the US does.

 
 
 
 
 
Comment by Professor Bear
2009-07-29 06:56:31

This is just my opinion, but I believe some San Diego bottom callers are imparting too much importance on one data point. As anyone who follows asset markets can tell you, when asset prices crash, there are always dead cat bounces before a bottom is reached. Last month’s slight uptick in the Case-Schiller index is an especially dubious indicator of the future trend, given the government financial engineering used to make it happen.

Nonetheless, I suppose it is a healthy sign for the San Diego economy that the Union-Tribune is resuming its role as real estate cheerleader. I hope all the real estate investors in the area go out and buy ten homes to celebrate the recovery.

Index finds price gains for homes in county
Slight uptick could mean the market has hit bottom
By Emmet Pierce
Union-Tribune Staff Writer

2:00 a.m. July 29, 2009

Further fueling hopes that the prolonged housing slump may be drawing to a close, a widely watched index of home prices yesterday reported its first gain in San Diego County in nearly three years.

The Case-Shiller Price Index, compiled by Standard & Poor’s, increased 0.4 percent for the county from April to May, joining a nationwide positive trend among major metropolitan areas.

Prices rose in 13 of the 20 metro areas tracked by the index, and the overall 20-city home price index rose 0.5 percent from April, its first month-over-month increase in 34 months.

“I think it means something,” said Peter Dennehy, senior vice president at Sullivan Group Real Estate Advisors in San Diego. “We do see a change here. We are talking about sales that took place a couple of months back, but it is a good sign of stabilization. The overall index, for the first time in a while, shows a positive. It’s a modest positive, but it’s a start.”

Marc Zimmerman, an agent with Encinitas-based Pineapplehut Inc., said many bargain hunters who’ve been waiting for the housing market to bottom out are returning to the market.

“I just sold a house in Olivenhain in the million-dollar range,” he said. “The buyers had been looking for at least a year. They felt that this was the time, that the prices had stabilized. This feels like the bottom.”

Comment by Pinch-a-penny
2009-07-29 07:24:44

Funny how in the People’s republic of Mass, a very similar headline was in the Boston Glob…. Only that the median price was slightly higher than May 09 (june 09 =302,000), and slightly lower 8% than June 08 (329,000)… but rejoice all is well, and MA is out of a recession..

Comment by Northeastener
2009-07-29 07:49:12

the median price was slightly higher than May 09 (june 09 =302,000), and slightly lower 8% than June 08 (329,000)…

Like I told my co-workers who pointed the Globe article out to me with glee, the YoY numberis still negative so the (longer term) trend of lower prices annually continues. The MoM numbers are just noise: spring bounce, first-time home buyers credit, etc.

Who would look at that data and say right now is a great time to buy? Unemployment is increasing. Forclosures are increasing. Incomes are down. State and local taxes are up. Prices are still declining 8% annually. None of this points to a stabilizing of home prices in Mass. Don’t forget that Mass is a “Recourse” state… so no walkaways unless you plan on filing bankruptcy.

Comment by Professor Bear
2009-07-29 07:56:28

“Who would look at that data and say right now is a great time to buy?”

- REIC cheerleaders
- Serial bottom callers
- MSM-cited ‘experts’

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Comment by Pinch-a-penny
2009-07-29 08:05:25

What I have wondered lately is how much is MA going to get affected by the coming wave of Alt-a resets.
MA seemed to be pretty much unfazed as the subprimes blew up a couple of years ago, and the effect was felt mostly in really undesirable places that historically had been cheap. Brockton, Fall River, Taunton, New Bedford, Some parts of Boston, and some really bad parts south of Boston, but the nicer areas were really left alone.
I am seeing some nicer, not necesarilly livable, places coming on the market as foreclosures or short sales, but the wishing prices are still far too high for the area. I also have a friend trying to sell his place in Abington, for over 2 years, with not an offer, yet he is unwilling to lower the price, as he owes what he is asking for the place. He is even willing to take a 10 to 20K hit on it, in order to get rid of it, but this is just annectodal.
I would love to see the amount of Alt-A recasts happening in the state, but that info is hard to come by, or hard to assemble. I know that nationwide the Alt-A recasts start in August according to the well known chart, but I have no idea when the would start, or if they have already started, in MA.

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Comment by Hobo in Mass
2009-07-29 08:49:53

I’m looking in Auburndale, MA and have seen a few foreclosures and short sales. So they are starting in some of the nicer areas. I also see many listings in the area of people trying to break even, like your friend (I check Mass Land Records). Most have purchased in the last 5 or 6 years and most don’t appear to be selling. It will be interesting to see if any of these are Alt-A loans about to be reset. If so prices may be coming down in the area.

 
Comment by sf jack
2009-07-29 08:57:06

I spent a few days last week in both Marblehead and Newport (Rhode Island).

“For Sale” signs appear as if blooming spring flowers in the above locales… MANY more than in the previous visits.

Given that, I can only say that if anyone still thinks the so-called high end is not going to get crushed over the next few years, they have not been paying attention.

 
Comment by Northeastener
2009-07-29 09:12:34

would love to see the amount of Alt-A recasts

Well, don’t get your hopes up too much… I expect Option-ARM’s to explode because of negative amortization and declining home values, but I don’t think traditional Alt-A ARM’s will have much impact if the majority are based on LIBOR. I know that based on the current LIBOR rates, if my ARM were to adjust today, my interest rate would fall from 5.85 to 4.15, saving me quite a bit. I fully expect this to be the case for the forseeable future as the Fed backstops the banking system.

Most have purchased in the last 5 or 6 years and most don’t appear to be selling

There’s the “Mexican Standoff” in Mass. They can’t drop the price because that’s what they owe and most, if not all, can’t bring money to the table. I have a co-worker who is in the same boat: went with the realtor that said his home should be priced at X, where X would allow them to not have to bring money to the table at closing. The other realtors basically said price their home at .9X and it will sell. That didn’t work for them because they have no savings to absorb the loss. Their pricing is based on what they owe, not what the market clearing price is.

This will take years to resolve as only home sellers who get this, adjust their prices down, and have cash savings to absorb the loss will be able to sell. Meanwhile, foreclosures and new home builders are slowly moving the market lower. It’s why I think, in Mass at least, the employment and wage picture is the most important factor in determining where prices go from here…

 
Comment by james
2009-07-29 16:49:41

I’m not sure about Mass as far as the recast impact. California coastal should get clobbered. Florida will bust again as well.

I don’t know what the situation is like in Mass.

If its a high cost area just expect it to continue to deflate while living like a leach on the rest of the country. Supporting it’s socialist policies on the backs of others.

I don’t think the bubble was as large in some areas. Michigan has been in a long deflation and never picked up much value. Similar with Ohio. Mass bubbled pretty bad but not Florida/California/Nevada bad.

 
 
 
Comment by Professor Bear
2009-07-29 11:54:29

Now it’s different everywhere again, as all real estate is local. Never mind that the little government-engineered price bump showed up similarly on housing market seismographs in local markets across the country.

Comment by CA renter
2009-07-30 03:45:18

This has been the one slice of hope for me. If we only saw this “stabilization” in our area, I’d think we might well be near the bottom — even though I think prices are still far too high.

It’s good to see we are seeing this bump in multiple locales, as it’s probably more indicative of the govt’s inflation efforts (and more likely to be temporary).

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Comment by Silverback1011
2009-07-30 04:41:27

Ho ho, I remember living in MA during a big recession in the early 80’s, and they were trying to sell that crap then too. Expensive state, corrupt politicians, keep the bribes ( and taxes ) rolling in. No news is good news, bad news is talked up until it’s good news again. Yeah, right.

 
 
Comment by lavi d
2009-07-29 08:18:48

As anyone who follows asset markets can tell you, when asset prices crash, there are always dead cat bounces before a bottom is reached.

PB, I really appreciate all you do for the HBB, so please don’t take this the wrong way, but,

I like cats. And I’m sort of tired of this one cliche - can we change it to “flat ball bounce”, or “dead banker bounce” or something less sad?

Comment by packman
2009-07-29 10:59:56

Yeah PB - there’s more than one way to skin a cat.

(Sorry lavi, just couldn’t resist :). Seriously - you should probably just be more thick-skinned - that is a *very* common phrase, and trying to get everyone to stop saying it would be pretty futile.)

Comment by Al
2009-07-29 11:39:41

I blame looney tunes for all the cat hatin.

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Comment by Prime_Is_Contained
2009-07-29 11:12:49

Sorry, lavi; this is a well-known and widely-used expression, not an invention of PB’s.

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dead_cat_bounce

Comment by lavi d
2009-07-29 12:00:22

Sorry, lavi; this is a well-known and widely-used expression, not an invention of PB’s.

Oh, I know. I was being just a bit facetious.

But really, what’s wrong with “dead banker bounce”? It’s so much more descriptive!

You can’t always go around saying the same things all the time, can you?

Well, I mean you can say the same things, but it’s nice once in a while to say them in a different way.

Like, I have a saying I made up, it’s:

“iAi Chiramba!”

It’s a combination of Ai Chihuahua and Ai Caramba.

Nifty, eh?

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Comment by Watching the Carnage
2009-07-29 16:18:47

lavi d,

I’m a dog guy, not a cat guy so I never had a second thought about the term.

However I LOVE the dead-banker-bounce and will now work to change my descriptive language.

 
Comment by Prime_Is_Contained
2009-07-29 17:27:13

lavi, my apologies for missing the facetious tag…

But I am _FULLY_ on-board for changing it to a dead-banker bounce! :-) :-) :-)

 
 
 
Comment by Professor Bear
2009-07-29 11:55:49

I didn’t invent the phrase. But out of respect for innocent cats, how about “dead pig bounce”?

Comment by lavi d
2009-07-29 12:30:57

how about “dead pig bounce”?

Compromise:

“Debt cat bounce”?

:)

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Comment by alpha-sloth
2009-07-29 12:45:32

resurrected floater bounce? (requiring another flush)

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Comment by Watching the Carnage
2009-07-29 16:22:33

Took me three reads (I’m a little slow)- chuckle

 
 
Comment by Professor Bear
2009-07-29 19:59:36

P.S. Aren’t you glad they no longer make violin strings out of “cat gut”?

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Comment by Leighsong
2009-07-29 22:57:19

Howz about “Pigers” gut P’Bear?

I like it!

Leigh :)

Ooooooh, and dead “Pigers” bounce too.

Ah, the visuals.

Leigh

 
 
 
Comment by Sleepr Cell
2009-07-29 12:25:09

I like cats myself (have four of the furry bastards).

May I suggest “Dead Realtor Bounce”

 
 
 
Comment by mikey
2009-07-29 06:57:57

“The golden rule is, he who has the gold makes the rules”

..and the errand boyz that manipulate the statistics better than a bald-faced liar, usually work for the man with that gold!

mikey :)

Comment by pressboardbox
2009-07-29 07:02:33

which raises the question: Is it possible to get rich without lying? …I think we are all witnessing the answer as this thing plays out-

Comment by Professor Bear
2009-07-29 07:53:41

Lying is very useful for legitimizing theft at the top.

 
Comment by DinOR
2009-07-29 07:58:01

pressboardbox,

And that’s really all I was driving at yesterday? Further, is it really possible to get rich without being connected?

Dear Old Dad stopped at the part where he said “You’ll never get rich working for someone else”. No doubt, ‘that’ much is true. But it didn’t begin to tell the whole story.

 
Comment by kirisdad
2009-07-29 08:04:18

Since the only way to stay rich is lying to the gov’t to get out of paying taxes, I would say no, it’s not possible.

Comment by mikey
2009-07-29 10:44:36

Yup and USB, Swiss bank and other offshore accounts do not exist Mr. US IRS man !

**Please feel free to contact my lawyers, the Swiss Gov’t and wealthy Congress Critters if you continue to persist with this Fairy Tale**
;)

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Comment by alpha-sloth
2009-07-29 08:55:01

Don’t the French have a saying- ‘Behind every great fortune, there’s a great crime.’ (If they don’t, they should.)

Comment by Anon In DC
2009-07-29 12:22:12

Behind Every Great Fortune Is A Crime. The quote was used on one of the front pages of the book The Godfather
Honoré de Balzac (French pronunciation: [ɔnɔʁe də balˈzak]) (20 May 1799 – 18 August 1850) was a French novelist and playwright. His magnum opus was a sequence of almost 100 novels and plays collectively entitled La Comédie humaine, which presents a panorama of French life in the years after the fall of Napoléon Bonaparte in 1815.

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Comment by alpha-sloth
2009-07-29 20:37:42

Exactly! I know my Balzac. (nyuk nyuk)

 
 
 
Comment by Leighsong
2009-07-29 08:55:20

“If we all stopped lying to each other, how would we ever get to the truth?” (or something close to that, made me chuckle).

The Closer

Leigh ;)

 
 
Comment by exeter
2009-07-29 07:34:12

Aladin! Where you been?!!!! :)

Comment by CA renter
2009-07-30 03:48:42

Where did you see Aladin?

I would also like to have him post again.

 
 
 
Comment by measton
2009-07-29 07:03:11

From Bloomberg

“The Fed is best suited to go in quickly if there is a fire,” said Mark Gertler, a New York University economist and research co-author with Bernanke. “But you would like an arrangement where if the assets are held for any period of time, the Treasury takes them over.”

Is this how the FED is going to offload all the crap it purchased onto Taxpayers. Congress will look like they are getting tough on the FED and say no more lending, in fact we are going to take over all those loans you made.

Comment by Professor Bear
2009-07-29 07:10:19

“Is this how the FED is going to offload all the crap it purchased onto Taxpayers.”

Wasn’t that the entire point of the TARP? To dump Wall Street’s bad gambling debt onto Main Street America’s plate? Or am I missing something?

Comment by Professor Bear
2009-07-29 07:11:47

P.S. You can’t squeeze blood out of a rock, so I don’t expect the plan to work very well over the long term. We will only begin to grasp this over the period of the next several decades, when we realize how many indigent retirees need some new version of Social Security to carry them through old age.

Comment by pressboardbox
2009-07-29 07:33:32

The plan worked out pretty well for all the AIG guys and other criminal Megabank execs who got fat bonuses from the deal.

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Comment by Professor Bear
2009-07-29 07:52:39

Exactly. The executives most directly responsible for engineering the financial meltdown get to take the money and run, and the next generation of Americans gets to figure out how to pay for a large number of indigent baby boomer retirements.

 
 
 
Comment by Jim A.
2009-07-29 07:51:42

I thought the idea was to loan money at no interest on bad collateral to banksters so that they would in turn loan money at moderate interest using j6pks home as collateral. It’s a win-win-win game. Unless you’re a taxpayer, home owner, or working outside the financial “industry.”

 
 
Comment by SDGreg
2009-07-29 08:07:06

“The Fed is best suited to go in quickly if there is a fire,” said Mark Gertler, a New York University economist and research co-author with Bernanke.

And you’re in a position to go in faster if you set the fire.

Comment by measton
2009-07-29 08:27:12

“The Fed is best suited to go in quickly if there is a fire,”

I just had a flash back to several news stories over the last few years where firemen started fires to create work, or because they need the validation of being a hero.

That sums up the FED, create a fire so they can ride in and save the day.

Comment by potential buyer
2009-07-29 11:54:57

Actually, they started fires because the feds were cutting back on their budget, which meant possible layoffs — according to a fire chief I spoke to.:-)

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Comment by Professor Bear
2009-07-29 07:09:07

Watch out for the end of the parabolic rise in Chinese share prices. The aftermath is sure to send Lehmanesque shock waves through the global economy.

Minyanville
Two Ways: China Hits Speed Bump — or Brick Wall
Terry Woo Jul 29, 2009 8:25 am

Chinese Fears Weigh on Stocks

China’s Shanghai Composite Index dropped 5 percent last night, the most in 9 months on fears that the market was outpacing itself as well as speculation that the government might curb investments and take steps to rein in liquidity. According to Bloomberg, the Shanghai composite has rallied nearly 80% this year leading most major global stock indices. But Chinese stocks are trading at around 35.3 times reported earnings, over twice the average of emerging markets.

Comment by Professor Bear
2009-07-29 15:29:05

Didn’t the US authorities have no incentive to “curb” lending circa 2005, before the subprime crisis played out?

Chinese Stocks to Recover From Plunge, Fisher Says (Update1)
By Catarina Saraiva and Michael Patterson

July 30 (Bloomberg) — Chinese stocks will recover from their steepest drop since November and end the year higher as speculation that the government will limit bank loans is unfounded, billionaire investor Kenneth Fisher said.

The nation’s economy is “gangbusters compared to the rest of the world, why would they try to kick that?” said Fisher, who has about $900 million invested in Chinese shares among the $28 billion he manages as chief executive officer of Fisher Investments Inc. in Woodside, California. “They have zero incentive” to curb lending, he said.

 
Comment by Professor Bear
2009-07-29 16:46:16

I am trying to figure out whether this latest asset price blowout and mini-correction are cause for concern. I guess that hinges on whether the global economy is still decoupled; is it?

Financial Times
Chinese bubble fears as funds flow into IPOs
By Richard McGregor in Beijing and Xi Chen in Hong Kong
Published: July 29 2009 19:36 | Last updated: July 29 2009 19:36

Shares in Shanghai and Hong Kong tumbled on Wednesday as investors snapped up two newly listed mainland construction groups while selling down the rest of the market after reports that China’s central bank might rein in bank lending.

Shares in China State Construction Engineering rose by as much as 90 per cent on their debut before closing 56 per cent stronger in Shanghai. China’s largest housebuilder had last week raised Rmb50.2bn ($7.34bn) in the world’s biggest initial public offering since Visa raised $19bn in March 2008.

The surge of funds into the market has reignited fears of a new bubble forming in both the property and share markets. The Shanghai Composite index has doubled since it hit bottom late last year, beating all comparable indices around the world.

Yesterday the Shanghai index sank 5 per cent to 3,266.43, after falling as much as 7.7 per cent in the day. In Hong Kong, the Hang Seng index ended down 2.4 per cent at 20,135.

The collapse of the previous bubble in Shanghai stocks, in October 2007, helped to trigger the global financial crisis. However, international reaction was muted yesterday, with European and US equity futures dipping only briefly in response to the Asian news.

Comment by Leighsong
2009-07-29 23:04:52

Stuffing finger in ears and shutting eyes tightly, singing lalalalalalalala…

The collapse of the previous bubble in Shanghai stocks, in October 2007, helped to trigger the global financial crisis. However, international reaction was muted yesterday, with European and US equity futures dipping only briefly in response to the Asian news.

Hmmm…I hear a bubble popping -

Sigh. Will they ever learn.

Leigh

 
 
 
Comment by salinasron
2009-07-29 07:09:18

By DIONNE WALKER, Associated Press Writer – Mon Jul 27, 5:12 pm ET
“ATLANTA – The nation’s bulldozer attack on crime and poverty will soon make Atlanta — home of the first public housing development — the first major city to eliminate all of its large housing projects.”
“Most of the displaced residents have received vouchers to put them in privately owned housing. The Department of Housing and Urban Development acknowledges, however, that it doesn’t know what happened to thousands of families.”
“Some longtime residents feel like afterthoughts in an ambitious overhaul that is supposed to help them.”

More do-gooders at work. Here in Salinas a cop told me that these neighborhoods have high crime and get worse with the more you infuse them with low income housing and tenants.

Comment by Arizona Slim
2009-07-29 08:32:58

I live just a few steps away from an apartment complex that accepts Section 8 tenants. Now, before you get all up in arms and fearful for my safety, calm down. That complex has never, ever disturbed a moment of my peace.

And, trust me, I don’t like noise. Just ask my neighbors. Especially the ones with the yapping, barking, and howling dogs.

Word to the wise: Do not annoy Slim with yapping, barking, and howling dogs. Slim and other Pima County residents have been working on changing the animal noise ordinances. Your days of allowing your dog(s) to bark incessantly are coming to an end.

 
Comment by aNYCdj
2009-07-29 08:39:41

Well lets put them in the gated empty mc mansions and wall them in…and let them destroy them….high security photo id to get in or out…and all for free….will they take it?

or will it crimp their gansta lifestyle?

Comment by alpha-sloth
2009-07-29 10:28:34

I think the empty Mcmansions are exactly where they’ll eventually end up. I’ve mentioned before that when I went to college (mid-late 80’s) the apts we students lived in were chopped up large victorian homes (some were once ‘mansions’). We shared them with bohemians, crack heads, and assorted oddballs. This was super cheap housing- apts ~$200/mo, rooms~$100/mo. It was the ‘college ghetto’.

And yet these homes were once the domain of the wealthy elite, and not that long ago.

HOAs will slow the conversion of Mcmansionvilles into boarding houses/apts, but in the end broke is broke, and reality will win out. Renting is the easiest option out for a failed housing development. As our poor move to these exurbs, I think we will see America begin following the European model wherein the underclass live on the outskirts of town, and the wealthier live near the urban core.

Comment by alpha-sloth
2009-07-29 10:33:27

Ooops…forgot to add that the old homes we once lived in are now all fixed and owned by the rich again. (And the students live in boring complexes now-often out in the ‘burbs.)

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Comment by DinOR
2009-07-29 12:22:02

alpha-sloth,

Good points as always. Sometime back we joked on partick.net these McChateaux’ would become divided up to house aging ( and insolvent ) boomers!

Further I’ll agree “broke is broke” and hence HOA’s will wither on the vine. It won’t matter this was once a “gated community” ( complete w/ security guard )

Personally I’d much prefer to see these implemented to house seniors than become crackhouses/shooting galleries and “grow” operations. Just me.

 
Comment by alpha-sloth
2009-07-29 13:09:15

I’m sure they’ll run the gamut from rather nice apts to crack houses- much like the old victorians we lived in- with a few of the original owners still remaining (and grumbling about it) here and there.

I’ve already pointed out that Mcmansions are uniquely well-suited to be rooming houses/efficiencies apts. Huge entrance halls and every bedroom has its own bath. Great room could be common room, and the commercial quality kitchens would finally prove useful. (Nothing we can do about their poor construction quality though. But it’ll keep the handymen employed.)

 
Comment by alpha-sloth
2009-07-29 17:46:02

Dinor- That security guard gatehouse sure will make a nice bus stop!

 
 
Comment by lavi d
2009-07-29 10:45:19

America begin following the European model wherein the underclass live on the outskirts of town, and the wealthier live near the urban core.

+5 insightful

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Comment by robiscrazy
2009-07-29 15:19:11

The Urban Doughnut Theory. It’s been playing out here in Sacramento, CA. Back in the late 80’s and early 90’s Central city was feared because of crime, bad schools, etc. Think crack epidemic. So, everyone flocked to the suburbs. Students, bohemians, artist, and oddballs headed to the cheap downtown.

Now, people with income have moved back in to central Sacramento, fixing up the old Victorians, cleaning up the neighborhoods. The suburbs are in the process of going bad and have formed a ring or doughnut of slums around the center.

 
 
Comment by potential buyer
2009-07-29 12:03:50

When Arnie releases all those inmates who can’t get work or housing because of the economy, he can house them in all the empty foreclosures, no?

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Comment by Watching the Carnage
2009-07-29 18:08:03

Alpha,

Looking forward - I think you may be right on target with that one. Exurban sprawl becoming the new ghetto…city centers replaced by the new generation of high earners that see city centers as logical solutions as energy and commuting costs increase.

Here in DC I’ve witnessed this cycle happen several times over the last forty years.

The suburban flight keeps moving further out as the mid-laying suburbs crash. At the same time, inner-city neighborhoods become more attractive as the wealthy inner-city grows.

Lot’s of fluctuation and be careful on the edges…but I would agree the changing economy will make American cities look and begin to emulate the European model.

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Comment by wmbz
2009-07-29 07:20:34

But hey, they beat expectations…

DOW JONES NEWSWIRES
Penske Automotive Group Inc.’s (PAG) second-quarter income dropped 63% on continued weak sales, but earnings beat expectations.
Auto dealerships have experienced smaller sales declines in recent months, suggesting the epic slump related to reduced consumer spending may be nearing a bottom. Meanwhile, price increases - reflecting auto makers’ efforts to make a profit on lower overall sales volumes.

 
Comment by NYCityBoy
2009-07-29 07:29:15

“Are there actually still some subprime lenders left standing at this point?”

Doesn’t GSE stand for Government Subprime Empire?

Comment by Professor Bear
2009-07-29 07:31:09

I thought the reference was to private subprime lenders…

Comment by NYCityBoy
2009-07-29 07:37:50

Ahh, I must have missed that. I’m a little slow today.

 
 
 
Comment by Jeffindc
2009-07-29 07:29:51

The lead story in the PRINT edition of today’s New York Times has the headline “3-Year Descent in Home Prices Appears at End”. Interestingly, the online version is titled “Home Sales Recovery Stirs Signs of Hope.”

http://www.nytimes.com/2009/07/29/business/economy/29housing.html?_r=1&hp

I understand WHY the NYT would shill for the housing industry; I just thought they were above that, particularly given the notorious unreliability of sales figures and the C-S Index.

“Some skeptics say they believe that the market is merely pasuing beofre it resumes falling…”

Count me among them.

Comment by NYCityBoy
2009-07-29 07:43:12

Boy, we’ve seen this before. It didn’t work out so well last time.

“Investors are turning right around and putting the houses on the market for sale or for rent,” Mr. Hunter said. “What appears to have been an absorption of excess inventory can be just a changing of ownership of that inventory.”

Comment by Professor Bear
2009-07-29 07:50:04

As long as the market has plenty of churn, UHS and lenders will make money and the MSM-quoted experts can point to green shoots of recovery.

 
Comment by Jim A.
2009-07-29 07:56:29

Hey, maybe these excessivly optimistic headlines will help bring alot of hidden inventory out of the shadows. At some level, it’s the same pattern that we’ve seen for the past two years: hope in the spring, panic in the fall. I predict another big leg down in Oct or Nov.

Comment by Professor Bear
2009-07-29 07:58:27

My thought exactly, Jim. Perhaps the rug will finally be pulled off the elephant of shadow inventory…

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Comment by Professor Bear
2009-07-29 08:02:04

This reminds me of the buildup of snow at the top of a mountain which normally precedes an avalanche.

Wall Street Journal Blogs

* July 23, 2009, 2:44 PM ET

Amid Signs of Recovery, Trouble with High-End Homes and Mystery Inventory

As today’s WSJ story notes, the relative strength or weakness of housing changes from market to market. And signs of a recovery at the bottom end of the market come amid signals that problems have spread to more expensive markets.

In California, for example, the share of mortgage defaults in the state’s most affordable sub-markets, which represent 25% of the state’s housing units, accounted for 45% of default activity in the second quarter. That’s down from 47.5% in the first quarter and from 52% in 2008, a signal that “the foreclosure problem was intensifying in more expensive areas,” according to MDA DataQuick, a San Diego-based real-estate research firm.

Another potential source of fog: uncertainty over the actual sale inventory, as some would-be sellers keep their homes off the market and as banks process a growing glut of foreclosures. (Calculated Risk offers some interesting historical charts here on inventory.)

While recent inventory trends suggest improving trends, we remain concerned that these stats are not including a substantial amount of the foreclosures currently being held by banks or the growing backlog of ‘pent-up’ foreclosures as new delinquencies continue to rise,” writes Daniel Oppenheim, a housing anaylst at Credit Suisse.

 
Comment by Arizona Slim
2009-07-29 08:37:26

Pulling a rug off an elephant is bound to upset the elephant. It will trumpet and stomp around, but that’s about all. OTOH, try pulling the rug out from under the elephant. Now that would be a sight to see.

 
Comment by packman
2009-07-29 11:21:44

“While recent inventory trends suggest improving trends, we remain concerned that these stats are not including a substantial amount of the foreclosures currently being held by banks or the growing backlog of ‘pent-up’ foreclosures as new delinquencies continue to rise,” writes Daniel Oppenheim, a housing anaylst at Credit Suisse.

Yes.

If you just take a simple percentage of all occupied homes vs all homes, you get a graph that looks like this, which indicates that no - there is no reduction in inventory yet; and most likely that is indeed due to the shadow REO inventory.

 
Comment by lavi d
2009-07-29 12:08:55

the growing backlog of ‘pent-up’ foreclosures

Wow. From “pent-up demand” to “pent-up foreclosures” in just a year!

 
 
 
Comment by Arizona Slim
2009-07-29 08:34:35

And, in many markets, a rental property glut already exists.

 
 
 
Comment by Professor Bear
2009-07-29 07:47:36

I am happy a finance professor has quantified a phenomenon which has been a frequent topic of discussion (at the qualitative level) on this blog.

While the study’s conclusions, at least as reported here, seem to place the responsibility for the negative home equity wealth problem on the borrower, I note that none of this would have been possible without the abandonment of traditional prudential mortgage loan underwriting standards. Given the class of borrowers to whom all this money was handed with few questions asked, it seems the lenders shot themselves in the feet with bazookas while their regulators took a long nap.

Wall Street Journal

* July 28, 2009, 9:23 AM ET

Study Finds Underwater Borrowers Drowned Themselves with Refinancings

By Nick Timiraos

Why are so many homeowners underwater on their mortgages?

In crafting programs to prevent foreclosures, policymakers have assumed that the primary reason homeowners owe more on their home than it is worth is that they bought at the top of the market. In other words, they’ve lost equity primarily through forces beyond their control.

A new study challenges this premise and finds that excessive borrowing may have played as great a role.

Michael LaCour-Little, a finance professor at California State University at Fullerton, looked at 4,000 foreclosures in Southern California from 2006-08. He found that, at least in Southern California, borrowers who defaulted on their mortgages didn’t purchase their homes at the top of the market. Instead, the average acquisition was made in 2002 and many homes lost to foreclosure were bought in the 1990s. More than half of all borrowers who lost their homes had already refinanced at least once, and four out of five had a second mortgage.

The original loan-to-value ratio for these borrowers stood at a reasonable 84%, but second and third liens left homeowners with a combined loan-to-value ratio of about 150% by the time of the foreclosure sale date.

Borrowers, meanwhile, took out around $2 billion in equity from their homes, or nearly eight times the $262 million that they put into their homes. Lenders lost around four times as much as borrowers, seeing $1 billion in losses.

“[W]hile house price declines were important in explaining the incidence of negative equity, its magnitude was more strongly influenced by increased debt usage,” writes Mr. LaCour-Little. “Hence, borrower behavior, rather than housing market forces, is the predominant factor affecting outcomes.”

Comment by Michael
2009-07-29 08:10:12

Maybe the reporters will start asking “but what did you do with money”…when they are working one of their sob story cases.

Comment by SDGreg
2009-07-29 09:04:06

Maybe the reporters will start asking “but what did you do with money”…when they are working one of their sob story cases.

But then they’d be reporters and not stenographers.

But more seriously, we don’t know much about how that money was spent and in what proportion (how much to generally frivolous items versus how much for expenses that might be more justifiable, etc.).
We need those answers and any good reporter should be asking the necessary questions.

 
Comment by mikey
2009-07-29 10:54:07

… “but what did you do with money”

Sheesh, that is a rude question to ask in America. Next thing you’ll be trying to follow the money and making all kinds of trouble… some peoples kids !

 
Comment by packman
2009-07-29 11:38:25

… “but what did you do with money”

I can tell you what they did with the money - they fueled the whole false 2000-2007 economy with it.

The positive delta between the true economy and the higher false (but actually felt, e.g. in terms of GDP) economy will be reflected in the future as a delta between where the economy *could* have been and the lower false (but actually felt as GDP) economy.

In other words - we borrowed from our future, and now we’re in for a world of hurt.

Comment by SDGreg
2009-07-29 13:35:02

In other words - we borrowed from our future, and now we’re in for a world of hurt.

You are so right, but I still don’t think that’s widely understood. There are still lots of decisions being made on the basis of a very unlikely future.

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Comment by SDGreg
2009-07-29 08:17:38

Instead, the average acquisition was made in 2002 and many homes lost to foreclosure were bought in the 1990s. More than half of all borrowers who lost their homes had already refinanced at least once, and four out of five had a second mortgage.

The original loan-to-value ratio for these borrowers stood at a reasonable 84%, but second and third liens left homeowners with a combined loan-to-value ratio of about 150% by the time of the foreclosure sale date.

I’ve always thought there would be a significant number of foreclosures of houses that were not bought near the peak, but were serially refied. This is the first time I’ve seen that quantified.

Since those numbers are for California, those that refied are now in recourse loans, potentially on the hook for any deficiency.

Comment by sfbubblebuyer
2009-07-29 09:05:58

And they should be on the hook. I’ve seen a lot of foreclosures crop up around the bay area, and quite a few of them have serial refinancing involved. They are either 1-4 years old, or involved in a long list of refinancing.

Comment by DinOR
2009-07-29 12:27:04

sfbb,

Right, but it took a “study” from CSF no less to “reveal” this! God that is SO funny! Could’a just asked Ben or even our most rookie poster at the time and ‘they could’ve told you?

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Comment by Sleepr Cell
2009-07-29 12:58:18

“I’ve always thought there would be a significant number of foreclosures of houses that were not bought near the peak, but were serially refied. ”

As was quoted here a few days ago. ‘A rolling loan gathers no loss’ Now that the music has stopped a lot of these people are looking around for a chair. DOH!

Of course, its not like people on this blog didn’t describe this scenario, in exact detail, a LONG time ago. ;)

All the cheerleading in the recent press is still fun to read though. Anticipated shadenfreude is almost as good as the real thing ;)

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Comment by Prime_Is_Contained
2009-07-29 11:28:24

“I’ve always thought there would be a significant number of foreclosures of houses that were not bought near the peak, but were serially refied. ”

I totally agree, and expected the same.

Refi-at-the-top was fairly functionally equivalent to sale-at-the-top; it was just a sale to the bank, really. The refi-er/seller got cash, and the bank gets the house eventually.

So instead of railing against the serial refi-ers, perhaps we should be congratulating them on their excellent timing?

Comment by kirisdad
2009-07-29 12:10:34

Re-fi’s were another way for high incomes to keep their money away from the gov’t through mortage int. deductions. I’m not saying it was smart, but they sure bought into the idea.

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Comment by Housing Wizard
2009-07-29 12:30:31

So ,instead of conducting a investigation on what the causes were for the defaults, before we started bailing out Lenders and
Homeowners , Congress and the Senate failed to deduce how many borrowers were in trouble because of refinancing . Maybe Congress and the Senate should get their facts ,instead of listening to self-interest groups and specific people like Paulson . Again ,pulling out equity was a big sale during the Boom and the Lending industry was pushing it,in fact a number of people bought more property with those equity extractions ,when they couldn’t even qualify for the loans long term . The idea was to use toxic adjustable teaser rate loans for equity extraction .

Until the people in power admit that it was a fraud ridden equity extracting Mania , rather than just getting sub-prime borrowers into their first home ,than maybe they can come up with viable solutions .

“Let your house give you the life style you deserve .”

If the Lending Industry could constantly get people to refinance
they had a built in business in which the pre-pay penalty gave them extra bucks also with the scheme . When real estate is going up so fast ,people do not take into consideration how much they really paid for that refinance and it’s all about how much money they got and how little the teaser rate payment was .

While I agree that the public was brainwashed into equity extraction by a false belief in real estate going up ,still ,doesn’t a party have some responsibility in that they went crazy on the
scheme and idea of a non-stop easy money ATM machine to satisfy every desire that they could not afford on wages alone .

Also ,I always thought that the interest deduction on equity extractions only qualify for a tax write off if you put the money into improvement in the property ? Does buying a Luxury car or going on a fancy vacation qualify ?

The question becomes ,why do people get bailed out when they realized benefits from equity extraction ,and some people have the money hidden in Banks somewhere >

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Comment by SDGreg
2009-07-29 13:47:16

Until the people in power admit that it was a fraud ridden equity extracting Mania , rather than just getting sub-prime borrowers into their first home ,than maybe they can come up with viable solutions .

Amen. Many of our elected representatives were clueless then and are still clueless about what happened.

One of the reasons I feel so strongly that all of the fraud should be aggressively prosecuted is that it would force them to see it for what it was. This isn’t people losing houses primarily because of an economic slowdown.

 
 
Comment by SDGreg
2009-07-29 14:03:39

So instead of railing against the serial refi-ers, perhaps we should be congratulating them on their excellent timing?

I know that was meant in jest, but congratulate them for responding to one of the 16 mailings a week encouraging them to do what they did? And by doing it over and over, odds are one of those refi’s would be near the market peak and once they were past peak they couldn’t do it any more.

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Comment by lavi d
2009-07-29 08:31:06

A new study challenges this premise and finds that excessive borrowing may have played as great a role.

Excellent. Thanks for that.

Comment by Jim A.
2009-07-29 09:26:23

Of course it was always excessive borrowing that was the problem. This just clarifies that it was excessive borrowing for the purchase of something other than housing.

 
Comment by desertdweller
2009-07-29 11:43:50

Gosh, didn’t someone say that before on the hbb?
smirk.
Like yrs ago?

 
 
Comment by Arizona Slim
2009-07-29 08:53:44

Okay, here I am with another one of those stories from the Arizona Slim File.

Yesterday afternoon, I went to a class on green remodeling. It was quite good, and I got some ideas for things I’d like to do around the Arizona Slim Ranch.

Now, I’ve been a green remodeler of sorts since 2005. That’s when I started replacing my old single-pane windows with Pella double-panes.

Like all of my other house-greening projects, I’ve been financing the Pella adventure with cash. As in, 100% down, no additional payments.

During yesterday’s workshop, I said that I’ve been working on a debt-free basis throughout my green remodeling journey. And, after I said that, I noticed a certain chill from the lady to my right. I could understand why — she was a mortgage broker, and me, being debt-free (and braggin’ about it) Slim, was not a potential refi client.

This week’s green remodeling project: Taking my front porch light (which is on at night for security) off the grid. It’s going to be replaced with a solar-powered on at dusk, off at dawn light.

Comment by sfbubblebuyer
2009-07-29 09:07:45

You mean she didn’t immediately pipe up with how you could do a full-on over-the-top super-green remodel if you’d just free your equity so it could work for you?

 
Comment by desertdweller
2009-07-29 11:45:04

You go girl. Off the grid. OFG.
or ‘oh fkg great’ !

 
 
Comment by Leighsong
2009-07-29 09:05:33

Ha. The house we purchased as foreclosure was loaned $619,000.00 to the previous owners. Home built in 1997/8.

Ya just can’t make this stuff up!
Leigh

Comment by SanFranciscoBayAreaGal
2009-07-29 09:18:19

Did you buy this recently?

Comment by Olympiagal
2009-07-29 10:47:07

She did buy recently, and I’d like to hear the details again. You mentioned a few things. Tell us about your garden, if you have one, Leigh! And what colors you’re painting stuff, and nice things like that.

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Comment by mikey
2009-07-29 11:11:04

Yikes Leigh…what DID you buy…Jefferson County ?
:)

My LL just pulled the trigger for a nice house and 20 acres out that way. I looked at a nice hobby farm in a western county with 80 acres bldgs, timber and pasture. Both properties only around 350k.

Leigh and the Ponderosa Ranch

Comment by Leighsong
2009-07-29 16:50:30

Hey SF, Oly and Mikey!

Yep - Jefferson County. Great price for the acreage and home.

It’s a fort! I locked hubby in the closet for two years, and he was just gettin too pale - so we bought us some sunshine.

Painting stuff - Master bed and bath in candle-light color…ooooh…so nice.

Main bath soft chocolate mocha - beautiful color with all the natural light. My son wants to do a bit of dimension with a sponge. One or two lighter hues. But it’s soooo nice!

Office color: cotton tail. Office is HUGE. In the process of hanging all our U.S.A.F. memorabilia. Four bookcases Oly!
And we need more!!

We bounce around like kangaroos. Outside - inside. No complaints - sure wish we closed sooner - no garden this year, but tis ok - Madison farmers market vendors love us!

OOooooh - just hung the newly cleaned Turkish hand pounded copper on it’s four foot rack. Just gorgeous!

Yeah, houses can be a money pit, but homes are a labor of love for the Song family!

Let ya know when the open house is Mikey! (seriously)

Leigh

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Comment by Olympiagal
2009-07-29 18:56:19

Oooh!

*happy face! *

‘Cause no one deserves it better.

:)

Oh, yeah, and your bath looks like chocolate?!
Thanks for rubbin’ it in. Hahahah!

 
Comment by SanFranciscoBayAreaGal
2009-07-29 22:32:39

Congratulations.

I am jealous you found what you were looking for.

 
Comment by Leighsong
2009-07-29 23:21:49

Thanks!

SF’Gal, tis our last abode, and with this economy, there’s plenty of room (AND WORK) for those we love that may need shelter.

Chocolate mocha, with a glean of warm deep burgandy.

Dang, I wish I had he official swatch color name thingy handy! Oh, but it’s so rich with all the natural light!

The frogs would feel at home - and your mossy head would look like sweet dew kissed glimmers.

Specially with a tiarra upon thy head!

Leigh ;)

 
 
 
 
Comment by packman
2009-07-29 11:30:37

Nick Timiraos seems to have a really good handle on the true housing market, with several great bits of info lately.

OK fess up - which one of us is Nick?

PB - is it you?

 
 
Comment by Skip
2009-07-29 08:04:05

NYCityboy - “work for free” is the new paradigm in Silicon Valley.
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

http://www.sacbee.com/topstories/story/2056443.html

Seeking comeback, Silicon Valley workers offer to work for no pay

SAN FRANCISCO — Soon after earning his MBA from Stanford, Andrey Abramov launched his first technology startup — a cell phone e-mail service he says “died horribly” in the 2000 dot-com crash.

He recovered to earn “hundreds of thousands of dollars” a year in ventures including call centers, social networks, anti-piracy software for video games and a Web marketing portal for brain exercises.

Yet today, Abramov, 39, finds himself among newly busted entrepreneurs and displaced technology workers. And he’s offering to work for free for a chance at another comeback.

In the Silicon Valley region, unemployment tops 11 percent and investment capital has all but dried up. Here, unemployed tech professionals are showing up in droves at Bay Area mixers — and signing on en masse on career networking sites — to volunteer labor and expertise in exchange for equity shares in Silicon Valley startups that have no money to pay them.

At the Metreon retail center in San Francisco recently, Abramov joined dozens of unemployed or underemployed Stanford graduates for a reception with under-funded dreamers, from Internet marketers to video game designers to wireless gadget makers.

He stood there wearing a stick-on badge listing his expertise — “biz development and strategy, engineering, marketing, project management” — as 30 companies made their pitches for people willing to invest five hours or more a week in free “equity” work.

Comment by Arizona Slim
2009-07-29 09:51:39

Oh, brother. Working for free. Don’t get me started on that.

Wait a minute. There’s a story that’s banging on the side of the Arizona Slim File. It doesn’t sound too happy in there, so it’s time to let it out:

I just got a request from a local event organizer who wanted me to give my photos (from the event) to her so she could share them with a well-known local non-profit.

And, I don’t know about you, but I’m running into quite a few non-profits that have more money than many of us can shake a stick at.

So, I asked the event organizer if there was any chance of selling one-time licensing rights to the non-profit. Her reply: They had no budget. (Yeah, right. They get quite a chunk of money from Our Fair City, and last I checked, my business doesn’t.) But she thought that the visibility would be nice for me.

My reply via e-mail: Visibility is all well and good, but I need to keep my bills paid.

Her reply was quite gracious, which is good. I want to stay on good terms with her, but also make it clear that I’m not in the business of giving my work away. Especially to organizations with a lot more money than I have.

Comment by rentor
2009-07-29 11:03:20

I thought High School students worked for free to show Universities they are made of the right stuff. Working for free as an adult shows you are ready to work for a third world company wanting to displace lazy Americans.

 
Comment by desertdweller
2009-07-29 11:48:47

Ex is commercial photographer and they ran into this all the time. They got paid the one time, but the client used that work year after yr after yr after yr,for free.

 
Comment by Anon In DC
2009-07-29 12:42:05

I wonder that about the local PBS station here in Wash, DC. This is a rich market. They have been fundraising for years. They shoud have more money than God by now. Yet it always seems to be pledge week.

Comment by Arizona Slim
2009-07-29 12:44:32

Tucson’s community radio station, “91-3 KXCI-Tucson, real people, real radio,” recently broke a fund-raising record. First $100k-plus fundraiser for KXCI. Better yet, the average pledge amount was the highest ever.

Next pledge drive is in September, and I can’t wait. I log a lot of volunteer time on the pledge phone, and it’s a blast.

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Comment by lavi d
2009-07-29 14:17:33

First $100k-plus fundraiser for KXCI.

Yay!

I was on my bike (the afore-mentioned 24-year-old one) in Sabino Canyon the first day that KXCI started broadcasting.

The bike was brand new.

Ahh, good memories. Thanks, Slim.

 
 
 
 
Comment by NYCityBoy
2009-07-29 10:47:34

From tycoon to volunteer. That’s got to hurt.

Comment by Olympiagal
2009-07-29 11:43:32

What was that recent article? An unemployed radiologist who applied for work at Home-Depot? I can’t remember the setting. Anyone?

Someone objected that hiring such a one would be bad for the morale of the other, more mouth-breathier workers, but I said then, and I’m convinced I’m right, that such a one would be GREAT for morale! You could have him diagnose your troublesome rashes and odd diseases as you stood there in your canvas aprons waiting for customers! The one with the most exotic ailment could win a small prize, for example.

Comment by desertdweller
2009-07-29 11:49:52

win a light bulb..get it…Oly. AHA moment-he he he he he

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Comment by Olympiagal
2009-07-29 15:53:22

:lol:

 
 
Comment by alpha-sloth
2009-07-29 13:34:00

I too think it would be great for morale. Who wouldn’t love to tell a once high-flying realtor to go clean up the overflowing public toilet. Seeing them do it would restore their co-worker’s faith in America.

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Comment by Olympiagal
2009-07-29 15:51:56

I’d buy ticket for the privilege.

 
 
 
 
Comment by rentor
2009-07-29 11:16:53

If GM/Toyota NUMMI palnt closes in October lookout below. Its located in Fremont which many consider to be part of Silicon Valley.

They are the last Auto plant in CA.

Comment by robiscrazy
2009-07-29 15:31:55

Isn’t it a done deal? Did Toyota not announce they were pulling out?

Going to be some hard times in the Bay Area coming down the pipe.

 
 
 
Comment by Blano
2009-07-29 08:19:55

Evil realtor takes job as witch……..says it’s a step up.

http://www.cnbc.com/id/32201832

Comment by mikey
2009-07-29 11:20:06

That WASN’T a step up…merely a lateral transfer witin the coven and a typo in spelling the word Witch !
;)

Comment by desertdweller
2009-07-29 11:51:00

Behaaaaaaaaave, Mikey- lol, as in typo.

 
 
 
Comment by rentor
2009-07-29 08:35:00

Biggest bank in the world is a Chinese bank and the biggest insurer in the world is a Chinese insurer. How did the US lose world dominstion so easily? This I feel angry about.

Comment by Big V
2009-07-29 09:36:39

That’s because the Chinese versions are state-owned. You’re comparing apples to oranges.

Comment by rentor
2009-07-29 11:05:01

Are you saying American banks and insurers aren’t state owned. Go ask for a 20% pay raise and see who stands up to object.

Comment by Big V
2009-07-29 11:22:28

Yes, American banks and insurance companies are not state owned. Current (misguided) government interventions help qualify some of them as partially state owned, and will help these few large companies stay larger than they should be. The situation is unfortunate, but China’s situation is even more unfortunate. The controversial state support that we complain about in the US is standard fare in China.

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Comment by rentor
2009-07-29 11:41:31

Certain group(s) of Americans wanted free trade not fair trade. The Chinese leadership wanted complete control over the country. They used the control to accumulate large wealth for the country and I assume for themselves. Now they need nothing from US because they realize the market that handed them the trillions of dollars no longer exists.

Given the wealth they realize its worth having a huge bank and a huge insurer. Just imagine if you had a really large health care, housing or auto insurer in the US that had national coverage wouldn’t you be able to provide lower premiums? Because Risk is spread.

If you had one bank which allowed you to do buisness throughout the country wouldn’t that be beneficial?

 
Comment by Big V
2009-07-29 11:50:08

A national bank is outlawed by our Constitution for good reason. The nation would be a slave to them, much as China is a slave to its government (which owns everything).

That’s one of the biggest reasons why most people who post on this blog are against the bailouts.

 
Comment by NYCityBoy
2009-07-29 13:24:15

Now they need nothing from US because they realize the market that handed them the trillions of dollars no longer exists.

LMAO. Tell me in 5 years how that decoupling theory is working.

 
Comment by rentor
2009-07-29 14:26:57

Decoupling will occur like it or not. When US stops financing Chinese development they will lose interest in US and look inwards.

The dynamic between China & USA is not sustainable. Do we want our advesory to be our debt holder? Do they want the major market for their products to be only major advesory left?

 
Comment by Big V
2009-07-29 16:22:15

Rentor:

The dysfunctional relationship between China and the US will dissolve, and China will be exposed as the good-for-nothing communist country that it is. In the meanwhile, since 80% of their reserves are in US dollars, they are quite beholden to us.

 
 
 
Comment by Bad Chile
2009-07-29 11:09:40

Wouldn’t that be oranges to oranges, considering “we” as taxpayers have stakes in all the too-big-to-fail banks?

 
Comment by desertdweller
2009-07-29 11:52:07

Or comparing apples to kiwi fruit. Big difference. hairy, brown, green inside. Just saying!

 
 
Comment by alpha-sloth
2009-07-29 10:42:57

Isn’t Citibank the biggest US bank? Let’s give it to the Chinese.

Comment by DennisN
2009-07-29 12:24:23

In fact, let’s make the executives running Citibank subject to Chinese law.

“Bend over. We have to shoot you in the back of the neck to break your brainstem.”

 
 
Comment by Cramer
2009-07-29 10:48:38

You think it’s a good thing? Concentration of money and power in the hands of the few usually ends up being a bad deal for the rest.

 
Comment by NYCityBoy
2009-07-29 10:50:22

Biggest bank in the world is a Chinese bank and the biggest insurer in the world is a Chinese insurer.

The biggest potential problems in the world are also in China. Their banking system is rumored to be a complete disaster. They have over 1,000,000,000 mouths to feed. They have shipped away girls for generations. How many 40 year old virgins can a society take? Their manufacturing boom most certainly has been accompanied with some of the most awful environmental practices of all time. But what a giant they are.

I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again. I am not sold on the, “China is a sure thing to take over the world” meme that is going on.

Comment by rentor
2009-07-29 11:00:02

The Chinese deal with social problems in Chinese fashion just look at the unrest in the Muslim province.

In the meantime they are targeting US institutions.

Anyone, who has worked for a Japanese or Korean company can shed light on their opinon on lazy American worker. When the Chinese companies arrive expect to be treated accordingly.

The only thing that will derail the Chinese locomotive is an act of gawd.

Comment by NYCityBoy
2009-07-29 11:13:54

In my lifetime the Japanese were going to bury us, the Soviets were going to bury us and now the Chinese are going to bury us. I’ll believe it when I see it. The only thing that will bury us is us and we are doing a pretty good job.

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Comment by Skip
2009-07-29 11:25:39

“We Have Met the Enemy and He Is Us”

-Pogo

 
Comment by rentor
2009-07-29 11:45:54

Along each step the enemy learns form previous mistakes. And once in a while things are different. The 2000 stock bubble, the 2005 housing bubble. American problems which seem to have benefited Asian economies more than US economy.

The Chinese authorities will deflate Chinese bubbles before they burst.

 
Comment by packman
2009-07-29 11:47:17

In my lifetime the Japanese were going to bury us, the Soviets were going to bury us and now the Chinese are going to bury us. I’ll believe it when I see it. The only thing that will bury us is us and we are doing a pretty good job.

In your lifetime we never owed 30+% of our GDP to the Japanese or the Soviets.

Not saying the Chinese will bury us - but they’re taking a different tack than the Soviets (military) and the Japanese (their own debt) did. The Chinese can use *our* debt against us.

“The rich ruleth over the poor, and the borrower is servant to the lender.”
- Proverbs 22:7

 
Comment by Big V
2009-07-29 11:52:32

http://money.cnn.com/2009/07/29/markets/thebuzz/index.htm?cnn=yes

How do you say ‘bubble’ in Mandarin?

Chinese stocks are on fire and banks are lending like there’s no tomorrow. Sound familiar?

 
Comment by rentor
2009-07-29 12:18:02

The Chinese will be the ones to deflate this bubble before it bursts. If someone within China tries to control the bubble to the detriment of Chinas leadership they will be EXECUTED. Imagine if we had executed the people responsible for the mess.

 
Comment by Big V
2009-07-29 12:35:48

Rentor:

The deflation of a bubble is a crash. Imagine if we all had to live the way Chinese people live. Ben Jones and a few of the commentators on this blog would have been executed. The Alan Greenspans, George Bushes, and Hank Paulsons of the world would be untouchable, and in power forever.

 
Comment by InMontana
2009-07-29 13:25:02

“We Have Met the Enemy and He Is Us”

-Pogo

Makes the 19,583rd time I’ve seen that reference in the last 40 years.

 
Comment by rentor
2009-07-29 13:40:55

For there to be a bubble the asset has to be at multi-year high. Currently, nothing in the world is headed towards bubble status.

I believe deep pockets want to introduce doubt to retail investors.

 
Comment by rentor
2009-07-29 13:44:08

The Alan Greenspans, George Bushes, and Hank Paulsons of the world would be untouchable, and in power forever.

AG, GWB & HP are untouchable. Are you saying they didn’t break any laws?

The “power forever” is best seen in Dr. Zhivago.

 
Comment by Big V
2009-07-29 13:51:08

Rentor:

RE: AG, GB, HP, etc.

They are all temporary, subject to the vagaries of freely expressed public opinion. In China, where the government owns everything (banks, insurance companies, media outlets, people’s property), a few people have always had and will always have control. Public opinion is not only meaningless, but it’s tightly restricted by the state-controlled press.

A national state-run bank would usurp this country’s freedom in no time at all, and then you would have your utopian society, where we all work like dogs in exchange for a bowl of rice a day.

 
Comment by rentor
2009-07-29 14:37:13

A national state-run bank would usurp this country’s freedom in no time at all, and then you would have your utopian society, where we all work like dogs in exchange for a bowl of rice a day.

The FED is like the national bank. Lets face who allows easy money?

The national debt will belong to our childrens competetiors BRIC countries and Middle Eastern countries. Our kids are better be ready to go fight wars for the new masters.

I think it’s sickening we as a nation are in this pitiful situation. A number of people including the president of the USA have stated this century will belong to China.

Believe me even people on this blog who were financially prudent will be dealt a blow when their kids pay for the mess created in the last 15 years, by both Clinton and Bush. Too early to judge Obama.

where we all work like dogs in exchange for a bowl of rice a day.

As Kudlow always says “A strong Currency is in the nations best interest”. Guess what we will have to devalue to 3rd world status.

 
Comment by Big V
2009-07-29 14:43:19

Here Rentor, this is for you:

Why The United States Bank Was Closed

President Andrew Jackson
July 10, 1832

A BANK of the United States is in many respects convenient for the Government and useful to the people. Entertaining this opinion, and deeply impressed with the belief that some of the powers and privileges possessed by the existing Bank are unauthorized by the Constitution, subversive of the rights of the States, and dangerous to the liberties of the people, I felt it my duty, at an early period of my administration, to call the attention of Congress to the practicability of organizing an institution combining all its advantages, and obviating these objections. I sincerely regret that, in the act before me, I can perceive none of those modifications of the Bank charter which are necessary, in my opinion, to make it compatible with justice, with sound policy, or with the Constitution of our country.

Every monopoly, and all exclusive privileges, are granted at the expense of the public, which ought to receive a fair equivalent. The many millions which this act proposes to bestow on the stockholders of the existing Bank must come directly or indirectly out of the earnings of the American people. It is due to them, therefore, if their Government sell monopolies and exclusive privileges, that they should at least exact for them as much as they are worth in open market. The value of the monopoly in this case may be correctly ascertained. The twenty-eight millions of stock would probably be at an advance of fifty per cent, and command in market at least forty-two millions of dollars, subject to the payment of the present bonus. The present value of the monopoly, therefore, is seventeen millions of dollars, and this the act proposes to sell for three millions, payable in fifteen annual installments of two hundred thousand dollars each.

It is not conceivable how the present stockholders can have any claim to the special favor of the Government. The present corporation has enjoyed its monopoly during the period stipulated in the original contract. If we must have such a corporation, why should not the Government sell out the whole stock, and thus secure to the people the full market value of the privileges granted? Why should not Congress create and sell twenty-eight millions of stock, incorporating the purchasers with all the powers and privileges secured in this act, and putting the premium upon the sales into the Treasury.

It has been urged as an argument in favor of rechartering the present Bank, that the calling in its loans will produce great embarrassment and distress. The time allowed to close its concerns is ample; and if it has been well managed, its pressure will be light, and heavy only in case its management has been bad. If, therefore, it shall produce distress, the fault will be its own: and it would furnish a reason against renewing a power which has been so obviously abused. But will there ever be a time when this reason will be less powerful? To acknowledge its force is to admit that the Bank ought to be perpetual; and, as a consequence, the present stockholders, and those inheriting their rights as successors, be established a privileged order, clothed both with great political power and enjoying immense pecuniary advantages from their connection with the Government. The modifications of the existing charter, proposed by this act, are not such, in my views, as make it consistent with the rights of the States or the liberties of the people.

Is there no danger to our liberty and independence in a Bank that in its nature has so little to bind it to our country. The president of the Bank has told us that most of the State banks exist by its forbearance. Should its influence become concentered, as it may under the operation of such an act as this, in the hands of a self-elected directory, whose interests are identified with those of the foreign stockholders, will there not be cause to tremble for the purity of our elections in peace, and for the independence of our country in war. Their power would be great whenever they might choose to exert it; but if this monopoly were regularly renewed every fifteen or twenty years, on terms proposed by themselves, they might seldom in peace put forth their strength to influence elections or control the affairs of the nation. But if any private citizen or public functionary should interpose to curtail its powers, or prevent a renewal of its privileges, it cannot be doubted that he would be made to feel its influence.

Should the stock of the Bank principally pass into the hands of the subjects of a foreign country, and we should unfortunately become involved in a war with that country, what would be our condition? Of the course which would be pursued by a bank almost wholly owned by the subjects of a foreign power, and managed by those whose interests, if not affections, would run in the same direction, there can be no doubt. All its operations within would be in aid of the hostile fleets and armies without. Controlling our currency, receiving our public moneys, and holding thousands of our citizens in dependence, it would be more formidable and dangerous than the naval and military power of the enemy….

It is maintained by the advocates of the Bank, that its constitutionality, in all its features, ought to be considered as settled by precedent, and by the decision of the Supreme Court. To this conclusion I cannot assent. Mere precedent is a dangerous source of authority, and should not be regarded as deciding questions of constitutional power, except where the acquiescence of the people and the States can be considered as well settled. So far from this being the case on this subject, an argument against the Bank might be based on precedent. One Congress, in 1791, decided in favor of a bank; another, in 1811, decided against it. One Congress, in 1815, decided against a bank; another, in 1816, decided in its favor. Prior to the present Congress, therefore, the precedents drawn from that source were equal. If we resort to the States, the expressions of legislative, judicial, and executive opinions against the Bank have been probably to those in its favor as four to one. There is nothing in precedent, therefore, which, if its authority were admitted, ought to weigh in favor of the act before me.

If the opinion of the Supreme Court covered the whole ground of this act, it ought not to control the coordinate authorities of this Government. The Congress, the Executive, and the Court, must each for itself be guided by its own opinion of the Constitution. Each public officer, who takes an oath to support the Constitution, swears that he will support it as he understands it, and not as it is understood by others. It is as much the duty of the House of Representatives, of the Senate, and of the President to decide upon the constitutionality of any bill or resolution which may be presented to them for passage or approval as it is of the supreme judges when it may be brought before them for judicial decision….

It cannot be necessary to the character of the Bank as a fiscal agent of the Government that its private business should be exempted from that taxation to which all the State banks are liable; nor can I conceive it proper that the substantive and most essential powers reserved by the States shall be thus attacked and annihilated as a means of executing the powers delegated to the general government. It may be safely assumed that none of those sages who had an agency in forming or adopting our Constitution, ever imagined that any portion of the taxing power of the States, not prohibited to them nor delegated to Congress, was to be swept away and annihilated as a means of executing certain powers delegated to Congress….

Suspicions are entertained, and charges are made, of gross abuse and violation of its charter. An investigation unwillingly conceded, and so restricted in time as necessarily to make it incomplete and unsatisfactory, disclosed enough to excite suspicion and alarm. In the practices of the principal bank partially unveiled, in the absence of important witnesses, and in numerous charges confidently made, and as yet wholly uninvestigated, there was enough to induce a majority of the committee of investigation, a committee which was selected from the most able and honorable members of the House of Representatives, to recommend a suspension of further action upon the bill, and a prosecution of the inquiry. As the charter had yet four years to run, and as a renewal now was not necessary to the successful prosecution of its business, it was to have been expected that the Bank itself, conscious of its purity, and proud of its character, would have withdrawn its application for the present, and demanded the severest scrutiny into all its transactions. In their declining to do so, there seems to be an additional reason why the functionaries of the Government should proceed with less haste and more caution in the renewal of their monopoly….

I have now done my duty to my country. If sustained by my fellow citizens, I shall be grateful and happy; if not, I shall find in the motives which impel me ample grounds for contentment and peace. In the difficulties which surround us and the dangers which threaten our institutions there is cause for neither dismay nor alarm. For relief and deliverance let us firmly rely on that kind Providence which, I am sure, watches with peculiar care over the destinies of our republic, and on the intelligence and wisdom of our countrymen. Through His abundant goodness, and their patriotic devotion, our liberty and Union will be preserved.

Source: America, Vol.6, Pg.111

 
 
 
Comment by packman
2009-07-29 11:44:12

They have shipped away girls

I don’t think “shipped away” is the right term, unless it’s a euphemism.

Comment by alpha-sloth
2009-07-29 17:22:46

Rule #1 of building a cool country- Don’t ’ship away’ the ladies. (But if you must, ship them over to me.)

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Comment by packman
2009-07-29 18:58:39

Not sure if you get my drift - unless you’re a prenatal pedophile.

 
Comment by Olympiagal
2009-07-29 18:58:56

‘Cause your building a second, cooler country?

…Ahhhh, sigh. I agree with Packman. This situation is shi*te. There’s a good reason there’s such an imbalance, and it’s a supremely ugly reason.

 
Comment by alpha-sloth
2009-07-29 19:35:03

OK. ‘Don’t ship away the future ladies.’ Happy now? And don’t ship ‘em to me until they’re legal. (Don’t put me on the registry with the skinny-dippers and the public urinaters!)

Yes, I am building a ’second, cooler country’. And some of you might not make the list.

 
Comment by Leighsong
2009-07-29 23:30:11

hey now - lawd, I feel a song coming on…

Snort!
Leigh

 
 
 
 
 
Comment by measton
2009-07-29 08:35:47

Again, I don’t blame the borrowers.

Let’s say I’m a strawberry picker and some bank offers me 350,000 to buy a home, the seller offers to pay closing costs and give me 10k to furnish the place. There’s a chance I can flip it in a year for 400,000 plus. If it doesn’t work out well they can come after my chevy or the $150 I keep in a jar under the sink. I’d take the loan in a minute and I suspect most people here would as well. This person has no duty to the tax payer, and is following the terms of the loan.

Now the banker/investment/pension manager that is supposed to invest my deposits/retirement conservatively has broken his promise by investing in garbage loans such as this. The rating agencies that spray painted the crap gold also have committed a crime. The government that is supposed to prevent this type of crime has failed. These are the bodies I hold accountable.

Comment by The_Overdog
2009-07-29 09:19:19

I keep visiting the local Ferrari dealership in strawberry picker clothing, hoping they will offer me the same deal.
No luck yet. :(

Comment by desertdweller
2009-07-29 11:54:17

You have to wear a push up bra when you do that. Plumped up lips and fake blonde hair. Come on, do we have to tell you how to do everything?

 
 
Comment by eastcoaster
2009-07-29 12:17:39

I can get behind that logic, UNTIL the strawberry picker starts crying for help and bail outs. Your scenario is based on the borrower realizing it’s probably too good to be true, but - eh - what the heck, I can get out of it unscathed.

That’s not, in my belief, what borrowers were saying. They did not do their due diligence that should have made them say, “Hmmm…they “say” I can borrow that much, but realistically it doesn’t make economic sense.” They just said, “Gimme, gimme, gimme…” and then refused to take any of the blame when things imploded.

Both sides at fault equally, in my opinion.

 
Comment by CA renter
2009-07-30 04:28:02

Agree with this, measton.

While the borrowers are certainly guilty enough to deserve foreclosure, the lenders and regulators are primarily at fault.

The lenders are the ones who were supposed to know what they were doing. Not so much with migrant farm workers.

Still, it’s true that the borrowers appear very unsympathetic when they whine for bailouts of their own. They should be grateful for the gift of foreclosure — that relieves them of the burden of their tremendous debt.

 
 
Comment by Olympiagal
2009-07-29 08:52:57

‘Brutal’ heat bakes Pacific Northwest’
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/32199224/ns/weather

…The high temperature could easily tie or break the all-time record temperature of 100 degrees Fahrenheit set July 20, 1994, at Sea-Tac, the weather service’s Jay Albrecht said.

NoooOOOOOooooOOOOOOOO! *wheeze, wheeze, claws at parched eyeballs *

Comment by Arizona Slim
2009-07-29 08:58:33

Back in 1986, I was bicycle touring in the PNW. And, thank you, PNW, for allowing bicyclists to ride the shoulders of I-5. You can’t do that in California.

While perambulating along I-5 in Washington State, I came upon a rest stop that was offering emergency ice tea. I kid you not. The table was staffed by concerned volunteers who didn’t want to see any overheated motorists out there. After all, it was (eek!) 100 DEGREES out there.

They offered me some as well, and it was pretty tasty. Not as sugary as Southern iced tea, but tasty nonetheless.

Comment by alpha-sloth
2009-07-29 09:26:27

Nothing in the known universe is as sugary as Southern sweet tea. Even sugar is less sugary.

Comment by sleepless_near_seattle
2009-07-29 09:33:41

LOL. I still miss my college intern days in San Angelo, TX.

$3.95 lunch special was what had to be a 2 lb Chicken Fried Steak, cornbread, and all the sweet tea you could drink.

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Comment by Bad Chile
2009-07-29 11:12:52

Up here in ol’ New England, they don’t know a good chicken friend steak with collard greens and mashed potatos and sweet tea.

Once went to a “southern” resturant in New Hampshire. Got brown gravy on my chicken friend steak.

That was six years ago and I’m still upset about it.

 
Comment by sleepless_near_seattle
2009-07-29 11:25:46

Dang Chile, you’re right! I think the price I referred to also included at least the greens and probably some taters as well.

 
Comment by Olympiagal
2009-07-29 11:55:16

That was six years ago and I’m still upset about it.

And rightly so! I’m surprised no one was kilt! You must have had your grandma with you, or else was so drunk you hadn’t the coordination necessary to beat those responsible.

 
Comment by desertdweller
2009-07-29 11:57:50

Good segue to a much better subj…
where in the southwest can one find great collard greens, country fried steak, with the correct gravy..
Need some heart/artery stopping advice and directions?
Anyone?
cornbread fritters with peppers hot with butter?

doing sit ups to combat the food thoughts. a one, a two…

 
Comment by Arizona Slim
2009-07-29 12:37:09

A soul food restaurant just opened on Fort Lowell Road in Tucson. Would that suffice?

 
Comment by InMontana
2009-07-29 13:26:49

“Up here in ol’ New England, they don’t know a good chicken friend steak with collard greens and mashed potatos and sweet tea.”

A man could starve to death!!

 
Comment by Bad Chile
2009-07-29 18:55:16

Yes they could. And there’s no New Mexican food either.

I’ve lived in New England for 10 years. Before that was in the south for a few, before that, New Mexico. One day my boss (born and bred Yankee) up here was makin’ light of the “chicken fried steak” thing, how it wasn’t chicken and wasn’t steak but sure was fried. Now, I’m not one to rise up and defend the south (being New Mexican, we were pretty much impartial to the whole war of Ivy League Agression), but that got my blood boiling. I like food that has flavor. If you invite me to a Bar-b-que I expect pulled pork, maybe a few racks of ribs, a couple smoked briskets that have been on the rack all day. Not some hockey puck of a hamburger. Poor Mrs. Chile, her sister invites us over to BBQs all the time, and every time I go I ask where’s the BBQ. Anyway…

I consider a chicken fried steak a good thing. No, a great thing. A thing of beauty, steak for the people. The great equalizer, a food stuff that takes rotgut meat and makes it a feast of kings. A family of four can have a steak dinner at a resturant for under $25 on chicken fried steak. Ain’t nothing greater than chicken fried steak for dinner.*

Except chicken fried steak and eggs for breakfast.

Heaven help mini-chile (seven weeks old today) and the day daddy takes him out for his first chicken fried steak.

* I was going to say New Mexican food, but that is my people’s food and good luck finding that outside New Mexico. And my rant wouldn’t mean as much either.

 
Comment by alpha-sloth
2009-07-29 19:54:28

Great rant, Bad Chile! ‘Plus ups’ on the lack of understanding of what BBQ means. (And no, it’s also not stewed in a crock pot!) Chicken fried steak is so popular around here, some restaurants call fried chicken, ‘chicken fried chicken.’

My favorite New Mexican meal (tell me if it’s authentic-sure seemed it) was a breakfast of eggs and chicken livers poached in a chili sauce, at a truck stop-y kind of restaurant around Santa Fe. I think the waitress was impressed that I not only ordered it, but ate it all. What can I say, it was delicious- and a good hangover cure.

 
Comment by DennisN
2009-07-29 20:04:50

There’s a place called “Bobbie’s” in San Jose near Saratoga that features chicken fried steak with breakfast. Molto Bene! :)

 
 
 
Comment by Olympiagal
2009-07-29 09:37:59

Yar, we’re bike-friendly out here. One of our many virtues.

…Shoots! 100 degrees IS hot!
*pant, pant *
Especially since I’m not used to it. I don’t have AC. Most of the people I know don’t either. I put on very little when I got home yesterday and then turned on the garden sprinkler, but I didn’t scamper through it, I trudged, and then quit when I noticed I was sunburning my kidneys and killing the moss on my scalp that I’ve become so fond of. A gallon of freezing cold beer helped, though.

I’m going to echo milkcrate’s fond fantasy of yesterday, or the day before: “If I owned a gun, I’d point at the sun and shoot it out of the sky. At least in my imagination.”

Well, I DO own guns, so later on I’m going to get them all out and just blaze wildly away, to see if it helps.

Comment by Arizona Slim
2009-07-29 09:52:42

I’m visualizing a picture…

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Comment by mikey
2009-07-29 11:30:47

“I’m visualizing a picture…”

I’m thinking bullet-proof vest and just hoping Oly doesn’t come MY way !
;)

 
Comment by Olympiagal
2009-07-29 11:57:18

I’m thinking bullet-proof vest and just hoping Oly doesn’t come MY way !
;)

I’ll be shooting at the SUN, Mr. Man. Not at aggravating Milwaukeeans*. And I’ve got great aim, too.

*Yet.
:lol:

 
Comment by desertdweller
2009-07-29 11:59:24

“I’m visualizing a picture…”

I’m thinking bullet-proof vest

What about helmets too?

 
Comment by Olympiagal
2009-07-29 15:54:47

Only pretty, air-conditioned helmets.
*pant, pant *

Where be my beer!!!!

 
Comment by Leighsong
2009-07-29 23:35:52

Er…that be “Pink” a/c helmets Miss!

Slacker…grrr…oh, and with rhinestones!

Jeesh!

Leigh :)

 
 
Comment by DennisN
2009-07-29 10:29:44

If you induce sunspots it will only make things warmer.

You missed your chance yesterday to discuss sending Shorty the mustang to the French in chunks wrapped in butcher paper.

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Comment by Olympiagal
2009-07-29 10:48:22

What?! Man, I approve of that plan! I’m going to go check it out. Was it in bits?
I was hot yesterday. My brains quit being able to read at about noontime.

 
Comment by DennisN
2009-07-29 11:09:05

No it was in ahansens thread, towards the end. The discussion turned to what to do with all the yuppie’s hobby dressage horses.

 
Comment by Olympiagal
2009-07-29 11:32:26

Man! That was an excellent thread! And I missed the discussion, boo hooOOOOOOO: boomers, hobby horses, strip-searches, shooting things, pandemics….all among my most favored objects of conversation, along with frogs and beer.
Sigh.

Oh, yeah, let’s send Shorty to France right away! Utarr’s not far enough away from me.

*lapses into happy fantasy of Shorty going to France, with his wicked little hairy face peeking out of an airplane neighing ‘Sacre bleu!’ *

 
 
 
Comment by bobesb
2009-07-29 10:22:48

In a conference downtown seattle - the power grid just not setup to handle this amount of AC. The keynote this morning indicated that they had contingency plans if there were brownouts this afternoon. Oh well…

Comment by desertdweller
2009-07-29 12:02:53

Few yrs back, not to long after 9/11, the heatwave in Europe was
encreable (fr) and while trudging through town around 11am, reverted to the Lourve to sit with hundreds,hundreds of Parisians on the marble floors. It was so darn hot, museums were the only place people weren’t dying from heat prostrations.

Take care of your mossy little haid.

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Comment by lavi d
2009-07-29 11:35:25

111 folks.

that’s what it was here in Lovely Las Vegas when I rode home last night about 5PM.

Supposed to be 105/7 today.

I rode my bike for 20+ years on Tucson however, so I believe I am acclimated.

Yahoo!

Comment by CA renter
2009-07-30 04:33:49

You desert dwellers are crazy! :)

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Comment by sleepless_near_seattle
2009-07-29 09:16:29

Supposed to be 107 here in the Land of Ports today, with sustained temps over 90 until next Tues. Not what I signed up for.

You’re lucky, don’t you live near the water? My passive cooling strategy is failing miserably this week. LOWs in the high 70s does not help much.

Comment by Olympiagal
2009-07-29 09:50:10

107 degrees!? Hayzoos Chreestos!
*pants even harder, just thinking about it *
Remember to drink lots of cold fluids, sleepless, it’d be a pity to lose you to heat stroke.

I do live near the water, and for the first time in my experience it is not helping moderate the temperature AT ALL. Usually it’s a bit cooler in summer and a bit warmer in winter—just right, all the time.
I couldn’t go kayaking out there and dangle my feet in the cool either, because the sun is hammering down on the inlet like a big golden gong until way late. Jeeze, I can close my eyes and I STILL see nothing but bright gold. Eyelids? What eyelids? Hair? Oh, that stuff on my head that’s ablaze?

Comment by sleepless_near_seattle
2009-07-29 11:22:12

Rolling Rock (appropriately chilled) is considered a “cold fluid” right?

Cuz, if so, man I’m hydrated!

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Comment by Olympiagal
2009-07-29 11:26:46

Excellent. It’s always good to be conscientious about ones health. :)

 
Comment by sleepless_near_seattle
2009-07-29 11:40:43

And your wallet! Its like $5.99 for a six-pack.

And it doesn’t come with that urban hipster d-bag reputation that PBR does!

(can’t wait for fall/winter when I can resume drinking the heavy microbrews)

 
 
Comment by tresho
2009-07-29 14:40:46

I couldn’t go kayaking out there and dangle my feet in the cool either, because the sun is hammering down on the inlet like a big golden gong until way late. How hot is the water in the inlet? Why not put a big old hat and shades on, and wade out there up to your neck? Just stay there until you cool off.

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Comment by Olympiagal
2009-07-29 15:57:24

Because, yes, my body would be nice and cool but unfortunately my head would quickly be set on fire. Sunglasses and hat and all. The water’s not moving, so it’s extra reflective. It’s like having two suns at once.

*pant, pant *

 
 
Comment by tresho
2009-07-29 14:51:49

I do live near the water, and for the first time in my experience it is not helping moderate the temperature AT ALL. No, no, the idea of soaking in the inlet is to moderate your temperature, not your environment’s temp. If you stay in long enough you will most definitely cool off (and continue to feel cool after you leave the water), unless the water temp is over 98.

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Comment by Olympiagal
2009-07-29 15:58:44

Ahhhh!
Okay! I’ll try it!

 
Comment by Olympiagal
2009-07-29 18:22:06

Okay, treshy, I owe you a giant favor. I’m going to keep my gratitude short, because I’m all wet and salty and dripping. I’m making a note of it though, in my long-term gratitude file. (It’s a little file.)

I have to admit my gratitude in increments, though, because I’m immature and hate to admit I was tutored by some HBBer I never even met. It’s a baby steps sort of thing.
Later!…

 
 
 
 
Comment by SanFranciscoBayAreaGal
2009-07-29 09:23:35

Come to SF Olygal.

Temperatures will be in the high 50’s to the low 50’s. The highest temperature for the next ten days will be 63

Comment by MrBubble
2009-07-29 09:50:57

SFBAGal –

Does this weather seem normal to you? Yesterday, coming home from Palo Alto, I noticed that the fog was all the way across the bay. Perhaps the high temps in Sacramento pulling the moist air eastward, but it seems a bit much. Not complaining other than that my garden in PA is crushing my garden in SF. Chilling in the main library today, enjoying the cold.

MrBubble

Comment by Housing Wizard
2009-07-29 14:41:57

It’s the crawling eye fog . Anybody remember that movie?

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Comment by Olympiagal
2009-07-29 18:18:06

Does that have pirates in it, too? ‘Cause I recall that one.
Great flick!
Although I guess I could have been drunk and/or hanging out with pirates, and gotten confused, in which case I don’t know what you mean.

 
 
Comment by SanFranciscoBayAreaGal
2009-07-29 15:09:28

MrBubble,

Seems to be more fog than usual. I live in SSF. I’ve had to wear my sweatshirt a couple of times this week. Last week we acutally turned on the heater for a few hours day just to take the dampness out of the air. Usually for us the heater goes off in April and we don’t turn it back on until mid November.

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Comment by sfrenter
2009-07-29 09:55:21

Glad to be out of the San Francisco fog - I can’t bear the summers there. Wake up in August and put a thick sweater on first thing. This will be my 20th year in SF, and I still go back east every summer.

Also glad I’m not in Portland.

Lovely here in Long Island, hanging out all day in a bathing suit.

We drove from VA to NY - strip malls and ugly tract housing abound. Yech.

We wanted to take a train but it was cheaper to rent a car. Isn’t that what’s wrong with our country, in a nutshell? $400 for a family of 4 on Amtrak. One way. WTF?

NYC seems to be bustling with shoppers, as usual, although every year it is more mall-like, with less unique stores and more chains. Just like the rest of the country.

I say let it all come tumbling down: the strip malls, the tract housing, the millions of square footage of retail space selling cheap Chinese crap, the ginourmous SUVs, etc. etc.

I’ve driven across country half a dozen times, and this short east coast drive was so depressing. We could have been anywhere - everything looks the same.

Comment by Anon In DC
2009-07-29 12:56:07

That’s so funny. Diff. strokes for diff.folks
“Glad to be out of the San Francisco fog - I can’t bear the summers there. Wake up in August and put a thick sweater on first thing. This will be my 20th year in SF, and I still go back east every summer.” That is EXACTLY what I miss about San Fran. Know hot is was in DC and I got to wear fleece and windbreakers. Since moving back east ten years ago I try to spend as much of the summer in San Fran as possible.

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Comment by desertdweller
2009-07-29 12:04:58

Can I visit too?
113 today.
It got down to 86 last night, or about 3 am.

Comment by SanFranciscoBayAreaGal
2009-07-29 15:04:56

Certainly can desertd.

My friend lives in Palm Spring. He told me the temperature was 113 also. Needless to say I don’t visit him during the summer.

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Comment by Olympiagal
2009-07-29 18:23:28

Come to SF Olygal.

No!
*snarly face *

There’s lots of people in SF! And besides you, I probably hate them all!

 
 
Comment by alpha-sloth
2009-07-29 09:23:40

I think we’ve got your weather here in KY, and you’ve got ours. We can’t get out of the 70’s, and every time it starts to warm up, it rains and cools back down. Got my first tomato in mid-July, ~2 weeks late, peaches are hard as rocks, should be eating them by now. Don’t get me wrong, I’m enjoying the temps, but my garden doesn’t know what’s going on.

Comment by Olympiagal
2009-07-29 09:55:07

I think we’ve got your weather here in KY, and you’ve got ours.

Really? Well I sincerely urge you to take your weather back. :)
It’s cooking me like a frog, and the trees don’t like it either.

I got my first tomato a week and a half ago, and that was early. It seems to me my garden is about 3 weeks ahead of last year’s schedule. Yesterday I went out and picked a few blackberries in the morning, and that, too, seems to me almost a month early. I’m happy to have tomatoes, but not happy enough to make it worth it.

Comment by alpha-sloth
2009-07-29 10:50:46

You pick and eat your own berries? That’s a novel concept. I’ll have to discuss that with my backyard birds. They could use a good laugh.

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Comment by Olympiagal
2009-07-29 12:00:20

My local birds do they best they can to gobble all the berries too, but they are overwhelmed by sheer abundance. You can see the frustration in their beady little avian eyes, and it just makes me laugh like this: ‘Hahahahaa!,’ through purple-stained lips.

 
Comment by ahansen
2009-07-29 14:15:36

Bird netting and snake shot. That’s how I salvage oh, maybe 10% of MY berries….

 
Comment by alpha-sloth
2009-07-29 14:35:34

Snake shot as in shooting them? That would git-r-done but the neighbors would call the cops, and the cops would take my gun. And the remaining birds would then peck me to death. (I’ve seen it happen.)

Also, you might want to duck and cover. I once mentioned my cat thrill-kills chipmunks and mice and I was soundly lectured on my ecological predation. (I still say they’re nature’s popcorn.)

 
Comment by alpha-sloth
2009-07-29 14:40:55

Not that I should lecture you on ecological predation. BTW great thread yesterday, thanks for letting me in. Sorry I drank all the tequila.

 
Comment by Olympiagal
2009-07-29 16:00:01

Not that I should lecture you on ecological predation. BTW great thread yesterday, thanks for letting me in. Sorry I drank all the tequila.

I obviously missed this, and this makes me sad.

 
Comment by alpha-sloth
2009-07-29 16:24:34

Yeah, you missed it. I was brilliant, as usual. (Until I threw up in the piano;)

 
Comment by Olympiagal
2009-07-29 17:51:27

Yeah, you missed it. I was brilliant, as usual. (Until I threw up in the piano;)

Now I want to hear it even more!
…Say, did you throw up in a thunderous chord, or did you stick with a single dramatic C sharp sort of effect?

 
Comment by Olympiagal
2009-07-29 18:29:40

I once mentioned my cat thrill-kills chipmunks and mice and I was soundly lectured on my ecological predation. (I still say they’re nature’s popcorn.)

Right this minute there’s a sign I wrote to myself, and I weighed down, right by my kayak, reading ‘DON’T MOVE THIS WOOD. THERE’S A CHIPMUNK LIVING IT IT’.
But you know what? That sign can go away, because it’s a temporary sort of thing. I have 3 feral cats that I really wish would go away. I think I like chipmunks better.

 
Comment by alpha-sloth
2009-07-29 19:11:30

If anything happens to those chipmunks, I will mail you three replacements for every one you’ve lost. (I’m not sure the exact chord I vomited, but it was Wagnerian. Some people leapt to their feet in excitement, if I remember correctly. There was scattered applause, most sat silently, blinded by the light.

 
 
Comment by Elanor
2009-07-29 11:30:27

Well, there’s a certain symmetry at work, because here in the until-recently-darn-cold Midwestern ’summer’, the tomatoes are at least 3 weeks behind schedule.

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Comment by Rancher
2009-07-29 12:13:23

Our tomatoes are just now starting to come in,
all 43 plants in five different varieties. We have tons of squash, melons, peppers. Our
salsa this year is going to be great!

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Comment by alpha-sloth
2009-07-29 12:39:31

43 plants?! Thatsalottamaters. I’ve got 4 varieties (pink, yellow, red, chocolate) and one mystery volunteer in my potato patch. (Best potoatoes I’ve ever eaten- my first attempt- easy!)

 
 
 
Comment by mikey
2009-07-29 12:00:51

I think it’s been a funny growing season here in the mid-west this year.

I live in an old farmhouse in the city surrounded by 12-13 giant burr oaks. The oak tree leaves this year look wilty and limp and not firm, bright green and powerful that usually declares “I’m a healthy and mighty oak leaf”. These trees have been a roost for our local ravens for many, many years and they’re not coming around as usual although my little green car is happy about that.

It’s been a long cool Spring and Summer and maybe they just need a good long rain or they have oak wilt disease. I will monitor the situation with a beer on my upstairs porch and report at a later date. I hope my giant oaks don’t need Viagra or something.

Comment by ahansen
2009-07-29 14:27:20

My oaks are seriously anemic this summer as well, Mikey. I feel badly for the poor leaf-challenged things. But there are a ton of seedlings up this year so maybe it’s post-partum from last summer’s acorn drop?

Apparently burnout is trans-specific. This drought isn’t doing them any favors either….

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Comment by SanFranciscoBayAreaGal
2009-07-29 15:15:17

mikey and ahansen,

Are sure your oaks don’t have sudden oak death?

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Comment by Silverback1011
2009-07-30 05:07:09

There’s some kind of disease going around killing innocent oak trees. They gradually die over several years. We had to have our two (dead) oaks removed. Very sad.

 
 
 
 
Comment by tgun
2009-07-29 10:13:21

Hi Oly;

Yessiree, that does sound a bit warm for the PNW region. Here in the land of 10,000 lakes (minnesota) the weather has been very pleasant this year. Temps below normal, only 1 day above 89 degrees this summer so far (knocking on the formica clad office cubicle countertop…) with more cool temps through the end of next week.

Been awfully dry however, we are in a severe drought 2nd year in a row.

What is the weather there like over Labor Day (can we call it non-labor day this year due to the current economic conditions?) weekend?

Got a call from my nephew last night, tells me he is getting married in Silverdale Sept. 5th. So, I call my brother to get the skinny (hey, is this a “shotgun” wedding or what?). My brother informs me, no- they have been shacking up since late last year and have know each other years (my nephew is 21 by the way). Nephew is a Navy enlisted crewmember on a submarine (my bro is commissioned officer in Navy, former enlisted- I tried intervention to direct him to the Air Force… and failed).

So, I then call my pops (still lives here in MN). Gives me the rest of the story. Nephew’s fiance is 25 with two kids, divorced. Pops doesn’t think it will last long-term. He says that my mum and he are not going to the wedding.

Since my wife and I are my nephew’s godparents, we feel rather obligated to go (ok, I also think my parents should go as well, after all they are his grandparents!).

Checking airfares, NWA (ok, they are Delta now) RT from MSP to Seatac $289 with all the fees included. Suncountry is $249. These are the cheapest I could find.

Looking at flying in on the early evening on the 4th and out on the late morning of the 6th. Probably do the ferry thing from Seattle to Poulsbo (I have driven through Tacoma and across the Narrows bridge though). Unless you have a better recommendation Oly? Any restaurants in the Silverdale/Poulsbo area that you would recommend?

Of course, would entertain meeting the wood nymph (Oly) and Sleepless for a mini HBB meetup. I could share photos of the vacation house that we are considering making an offer on (bank owned foreclosure I commented on yesterday on the blog).

Thank you for your pnw weather prognistication for Labor Day weekend, the ground transport and restaurant recommendations.

If you want my email address, let me know.

Thanks fo

Comment by sleepless_near_seattle
2009-07-29 11:00:44

Based on all the facts presented, you should suggest they wait!

One of those facts is that I’ll be out in E. WA over that weekend listening to music and getting drunk off of fermented grapes.

Comment by tgun
2009-07-29 11:25:25

Thanks Sleepless…

Yes, it would be much more prudent if they wait. What’s the rush anyway? Get out there and live a little before settling down. Maybe save some money under the mattress for a few years and look for a foreclosed house in 2013 or thereabouts.

My brother is going to call us this weekend to update us (is the wedding still on for the 5th of September or postponed?).

There has got to be more to the story than what I have heard thus far…

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Comment by Olympiagal
2009-07-29 18:16:20

Where’s my post! !

 
 
 
Comment by Olympiagal
2009-07-29 17:54:46

Keep us posted. I, for one, love to hear all about sordid love triangles.
Also, my HBB email (which I don’t check very rigorously, be warned)
is blue dot is dot best at hot mail dot com. In case you come out after all.)

Say! I’m kinda stream-of-consciousnessing right now, but you know where you should eat in Poulsbo?! JJ’S fish house! The food is food, but the best part is Mr. FishPants! He’s made of wood, standing in front, and every time I see him I rush right up and give him a soul-kiss. That’s ’cause he’s half fish and all wood.
Look! You’ll just have to see him to know the joy and beauty.

 
 
Comment by Rancher
2009-07-29 12:04:53

Official temp yesterday was 108, downtown 115.

Comment by Arizona Slim
2009-07-29 12:42:11

Yesterday’s Tucson high was 108. In addition to going to the aforementioned green remodeling class, I bicycled to the gym and then to a neighbor’s house. Neighbor had some raked up mesquite beans that she was about to toss in the trash. They make fine yard mulch, so I brought my trailer, yard tools, and carrying bin. Said mesquite beans are now mulch beneath my chuparosa.

 
 
 
Comment by desertdweller
2009-07-29 09:18:38

http://www.bls.gov/opub/ted/

bad spelling -except EXIT.

 
Comment by FP
2009-07-29 09:27:05

Anyone take advantage on the Government Program “Cash for clunkers” yet?
Here’s my thoughts:

I have a van that was manufactured in 1997 and it is one MPG over the qualifying number which is 18 so it doesn’t qualify. Doesn’t matter becuase it runs like a champ and looks like it’s brand new. Anyways, I was thinking if it did qualify, should I take it in a take advantage of the program?

Personally, I won’t buy another car until I really “need” to.

1. Van runs and looks great.
2. I hate car payments and higher insurance
3. I would be taking on more debt

I’m all for the environment but capping the qualifying MPG to 18 is stupid. In CA, we have the strictest SMOG requirements and when my van was tested, the tester said the results was similar to a new car. I take care of my cars. Personally a car that doesn’t qualify for the program but emits so much crap in the air is more damaging.

Comment by Arizona Slim
2009-07-29 09:54:39

(Sob!) I want new bicycles, dadgummit. My newest bike is 14 years old. (Whine!)

OTOH, all of the bikes work, and they work quite well. So, I think I’ll keep ‘em.

Comment by lavi d
2009-07-29 11:39:32

(Sob!) I want new bicycles, dadgummit. My newest bike is 14 years old. (Whine!)

My newest bike is 11 years old.

My oldest is 24. I love my oldest bike. It has those fancy-dancy gussets on the welds instead of the tubes just being stuck into each other. It’s very elegant.

:)

Comment by Olympiagal
2009-07-29 18:15:01

Sounds like it. Tell us more about the elegance.

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Comment by ahansen
2009-07-29 10:48:25

Even if I had the money, I wouldn’t trade in my POS– just on principal. We’re already bailing out the industry and their dreadful product; why encourage them?

Besides, there is something empowering about driving around in an true beater–especially in places where you can watch the gate guards sneer and the valets cringe in horror.

When your shoes cost more than the Blue Book, you know you’ve got the locals off-guard….

Comment by speedingpullet
2009-07-29 13:09:08

LOL - same here!

My 13 year old Nissan Sentra puts the Fear of Bob into the hearts of Angelinos on the Westside.. all those Merc SUVs try to avoid me at all costs, I might give them cooties… ;-)

Added to the fact that it only gets washed once a year (rain is a ‘free’ wash, but I get it valeted inside and out in January)), and the spring/summer sap production of the tree it rests under has been very abundant this year.

Although I bought it as ‘white’ - its now slightly orange and furry - what with dust and whatnot mixing in with the tree sap. It looks kind of like an urban Swamp Thing.

I’d scare myself, if I wasn’t driving it.

Comment by ahansen
2009-07-29 14:39:21

“…Urban swamp thing.” (Snort.)

It’s true about the avoidance thing. No 405 commuter EVER tries to noodge in on my lane. Maybe it’s the rifle rack….

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Comment by SanFranciscoBayAreaGal
2009-07-29 15:18:58

Same when they see my 1982 Oldsmobile Custom Cruiser station wagon. I don’t get too many people trying to cut me off.

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Comment by FP
2009-07-29 14:21:20

I’m with you. One time my wife and I drove up to our son’s private school “bitch at the President” session. We parked our 02 Corolla and all I see are a sea of German cars and SUVs. When the Pres said they were raising tuition by 10 percent, there was a huge uproar. Parents saying they can’t afford it, they’ll take their kids back to public school (chuckle) etc. BTW, this school only charges $500 a month so I understand the hike. Anyways, during the Q/A session I asked if there was a discount if I can pay in full and he said yes and it was about 5%. I also asked if the accounting office is open so that I can pay immediately. And of course he said it was open and my wife walked out of the meeting and paid the tuition and left the parking lot leaving behind worthless $50K cars.

 
Comment by Prime_Is_Contained
2009-07-29 14:57:52

“When your shoes cost more than the Blue Book, you know you’ve got the locals off-guard….”

My analogue to this is that I enjoy putting a case of wine in the trunk of my care, where wine cost more than the car… :-)

 
Comment by Kim
2009-07-29 15:52:35

“Besides, there is something empowering about driving around in an true beater–especially in places where you can watch the gate guards sneer and the valets cringe in horror.”

The used house salesfolk ALWAYS leave us alone when we pull up in DH’s 1994 jeep.

Comment by Arizona Slim
2009-07-29 16:22:25

I can remember getting the look-down-the-nose treatment at a local church. It attracted more than a few parishioners who swooped down from the Foothills in Cadillacs. Me? I cruised over on my old Cannondale.

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Comment by Olympiagal
2009-07-29 18:10:58

You went to church?
Why’d you go to church?

*gasp! *
What did you DO?!

 
 
 
Comment by Silverback1011
2009-07-30 05:12:40

Nuthin’ beats our 1992 turquoise Honda hatchback with minimal rust. Nuthin’.

 
 
Comment by lavi d
2009-07-29 11:37:22

Anyone take advantage on the Government Program “Cash for clunkers” yet?

I’ve looked into it and come to the conclusion that I can do much better buying a used car and using my “clunker” as a trade.

Centennial Toyota has a $4,000 “Push, pull or drag” deal and it applies to used cars too.

The Cash for Clunkers is for new metal only.

 
 
Comment by Blano
2009-07-29 09:30:19

If PennyMac bought loans from the FDIC at 30-50 cents on the dollar, exactly what kind of risk did the FDIC still have to retain?? Nice work if you can get it.

http://www.cnbc.com/id/32203855

 
Comment by Brett
2009-07-29 09:31:44

Hello guys,
How are ya’ll doing (I’m feeling Texan this morning).

How much is too much for rent?

I know it’s kind of a really generic question, but I am having some doubts lately.

Some of my friends work in a different area of Austin (NW), while I work just 5mi SE of downtown.

Rents are much more affordable for them b/c of the area; I have a friend who will be paying 900 a month of ~850 sq ft in a new ‘luxury’ development (The Domain).

On the other hand, I pay about $1350 for 840 sq ft in a nice place downtown.

I do not have any issues making my rent payment, and I live very comfortably. It’s less than a 1/3 of my gross pay, and I have no debt at all.

However, it bothers me how much money I pay in rent compared to other people; I will pay 4k more in rent than my friend in a year.

Location & Amenities are expensive, but am I overdoing it? how much is too much?

Comment by The_Overdog
2009-07-29 09:50:52

Impossible for us to answer; however, if it “bothers you” than a friend is paying less, then maybe you should move.

Economically, you are saying that you cannot see the marginal utility that the extra $400 buys you for your place over your friend’s place, therefore you would be willing to pay less. Therefore, you should consider moving.

If your comute expense + commute hassle time & expense is less than $400, then move. If not, then stay.

 
Comment by sleepless_near_seattle
2009-07-29 09:53:54

$4k could fund most of a Roth IRA contribution.

$4k could buy you 10 ski season passes.

$4k could buy you 3 or 4 14-foot touring kayaks (the poly ones, not the fiber ones)

$4k could fund a very nice trip to Italy for a month, maybe longer. (riding trains, staying in hostels)

Well at least this is looking at it through my eyes. I’d find the cheapest thing you can that doesn’t sacrifice your safety and still gives reasonable access to what downtown living gives you.

Comment by Olympiagal
2009-07-29 10:01:46

$4k could buy you 3 or 4 14-foot touring kayaks (the poly ones, not the fiber ones)

Sleepless has wisdom! And good priorities.

I also agree with Overdog’s assessment- If your commute expense + commute hassle time & expense is less than $400, then move. If not, then stay.
I personally hate commuting. When I hear stories about people who regularly commute two hours or even more one way? Arggle! Why bother to be alive?

Comment by Brett
2009-07-29 10:06:08

Hell NO!!
My drive to home/work is less than 15 min. I am only 4.5 mi away from work, and I use my bike about 50% of the time.

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Comment by The_Overdog
2009-07-29 11:00:26

Actually, I should ammend what I wrote for clarity. If your NEW POSSBILE HOME’s comute expense + commute hassle time & expense is more than a reasonable difference, then you should stay.

 
 
Comment by NYCityBoy
2009-07-29 11:10:14

I personally hate commuting. When I hear stories about people who regularly commute two hours or even more one way? Arggle! Why bother to be alive?

Lighten up, Oly. Not everybody can run their own online voyeur site from their house?

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Comment by Olympiagal
2009-07-29 18:09:35

That’s what I hear, and really—that’s just too bad.

 
Comment by Olympiagal
2009-07-29 18:13:52

That’s what I hear, and really—that’s just too bad.

Maybe they should get some better costumes, or something.
…Oh, my Heavenly Gosh! I just had a GREAT idea! A mortgage-broker costume! Who doesn’t want to beat on, or get beat on by one of them!? Huh Huh Huh?!
:lol:

 
 
 
Comment by Brett
2009-07-29 10:04:49

Living near downtown is not cheap.

East of Downtown has high crime rates.

I don’t wanna move to far south b/c most of my acquaintances live north (including my gf).

Most of South Central Austin is somewhat transitional with many revelopments; some of these areas used to be where lower income hispanic familes lived and/or prostitution areas back in the 80s, I think. Typical HGTV areas where homes were woth 100k, investors flipped them and sold them for 600k.

I think I’m giong to seriously consider sacrificing my great location in the heart of downtown for other places nearby with slightly more reasonable rates; however, I am not sure how successfull I am.

I just talked to somehow who rented a 650 sq ft place for 1050 about 0.5 mi from downtown in a new development. So, I dunno how much cheaper it can really get.

Comment by sleepless_near_seattle
2009-07-29 10:25:44

Here’s another idea.

Austin, like Portland, has the dubious distinction of being one of those hip places. Hip meaning, of course, being a negative in that people don’t come here because it makes sense, but because it’s cool to tell their friends back home that they live here. But that’s a rant for another day.

My point is, I’m sure there are loads o’ vacant condos bought by investors just screaming for a renter.

Call some local realtors and tell them you have $800 a month to spend. Ask them if they know of any owners who simply want their place occupied, condo or otherwise, that have your desired square footage. Forward any documentation to prove you are responsible and worthy.

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Comment by Brett
2009-07-29 10:39:42

I already tried that; condos in the downtown area are at least 1,100 USD, and the units at that price are usually very tinny (<600 sq ft). *sigh!

you can check them out yourself at austin home search dot com zip code 78701

 
 
 
Comment by desertdweller
2009-07-29 12:11:52

Sleepless, you hit the nail on the head. Comparison shop.
Come up with better ideas, something to look forward to..ala Italy.

 
 
Comment by Georgia
2009-07-29 10:40:12

I am about to rent a 2500 sq foot all brick ranch in the middle of 600 acres of trees and pasture for $400/month. The owner previously had the home and 1 of those acres on the market for $165,000.

Buying a home is just so unattractive now.

 
 
Comment by wmbz
2009-07-29 09:41:30

Desperate state may sell Capitol buildings, others
Under GOP plan, government would pay to lease back most of the sites
Jul. 29, 2009 12:00 AM The Arizona Republic

Call it a sign of desperate times: Legislators are considering selling the House and Senate buildings where they’ve conducted state business for more than 50 years.

Dozens of other state properties also may be sold as the state government faces its worst financial crisis in a generation, if not ever. The plan isn’t to liquidate state assets, though.

Instead, officials hope to sell the properties and then lease them back over several years before assuming ownership again. The complex financial transaction would allow government services to continue without interruption while giving the state a fast infusion of as much as $735 million, according to Capitol projections.

For investors, the arrangement means long-term lease payments from a stable source.

Once any deals are approved, money could begin flowing into state coffers in as little as 90 days.

The plan has bipartisan backing, but that doesn’t make the prospect of paying rent for buildings once owned free and clear by taxpayers any easier to swallow.

“We’ve mortgaged the legislative halls,” said an exasperated state Rep. Steve Yarbrough, a Chandler Republican. “That just tells you how extraordinary the times are.

“To me, it’s something we’re going to have to do no matter how much we find it undesirable.”

Comment by sfbubblebuyer
2009-07-29 11:51:40

They should sell them, then walk away. Hold the assembly at an IHOP. Pancakes and Porkbarrels.

Whoever buys them will just slap in granite countertops and flip ‘em anyway.

Comment by desertdweller
2009-07-29 12:13:27

HA HA

great retort.. maple syrup with that?

 
 
Comment by packman
2009-07-29 11:53:14

For investors, the arrangement means long-term lease payments from a thought-to-be stable source.

Fixed that for them.

(and… wow)

 
 
Comment by Professor Bear
2009-07-29 09:42:03

Dumb question of the day:

Given where irrational exuberance has brought the US macroeconomy thus far, does deliberately using psychological-economic engineering to create more of the same really seem like the best medicine to spark a recovery? Or is this just some kind of hair-of-the-dog fantasy cure, akin to handing an alcoholic another drink to cure his hangover?

Comment by Muggy
2009-07-29 09:52:20

I don’t think it’s either. I really think they think they’re on the right track, and “we can do this!”

Comment by Professor Bear
2009-07-29 10:54:29

“Yes we can!”

 
 
Comment by Professor Bear
2009-07-29 10:56:30

Observation: A highly confused public is easily manipulated.

 
Comment by Al
2009-07-29 11:28:20

Of course psychological-economic engineering is the answer. Is it wasn’t for negative nellies like us there wouldn’t be a problem in the first place. A positive outlook trumps a negative balance sheet every time, and a recent poll showed 80% of people are confident it’s true.

 
Comment by Professor Bear
2009-07-29 20:55:22

Bonus dumb questions of the day:

1. Have the PTB used hair-of-the-dog measures to attempt a reflation of housing prices during the correction phase of previous cycles (e.g., 1989-1996 housing bust), or is the current respiking operation underway a first such attempt?

2. If previous hair-of-the-dog stimuli were employed, how come they failed?

3. Is it different this time? That is, should we expect reflation to work in the current crisis when it failed to work previously (though I note that running the printing press provided a pretty good run of inflation after the 1973-1974 market crash, until Volcker slammed on the brakes from 1979-1982)?

 
 
Comment by wmbz
2009-07-29 09:48:11

Military planning for possible H1N1 outbreak.
WASHINGTON (CNN) — The U.S. military wants to establish regional teams of military personnel to assist civilian authorities in the event of a significant outbreak of the H1N1 virus this fall, according to Defense Department officials.

The proposal is awaiting final approval from Defense Secretary Robert Gates.

The officials would not be identified because the proposal from U.S. Northern Command’s Gen. Victor Renuart has not been approved by the secretary.

The plan calls for military task forces to work in conjunction with the Federal Emergency Management Agency. There is no final decision on how the military effort would be manned, but one source said it would likely include personnel from all branches of the military.

It has yet to be determined how many troops would be needed and whether they would come from the active duty or the National Guard and Reserve forces.

Civilian authorities would lead any relief efforts in the event of a major outbreak, the official said. The military, as they would for a natural disaster or other significant emergency situation, could provide support and fulfill any tasks that civilian authorities could not, such as air transport or testing of large numbers of viral samples from infected patients.

As a first step, Gates is being asked to sign a so-called “execution order” that would authorize the military to begin to conduct the detailed planning to execute the proposed plan.

Orders to deploy actual forces would be reviewed later, depending on how much of a health threat the flu poses this fall, the officials said.

Comment by tgun
2009-07-29 10:48:26

I love the smell of napalm in the morning…

Sounds like a msm storyline handed out by the public affairs officer with the DoD to prevent panicking the masses. Good cover story for deployment of Federal troops to quell any peasant “uprising”… OR, maybe a modified form of h1n1 will be developed by the gubmint to eliminate unemployed and uninsured and illegal aliens = MISSION ACCOMPLISHED!!

Comment by desertdweller
2009-07-29 12:17:22

Not always a ‘conspiracy theorist’ but is the gov building up for something Planned?
As in, wait, ( used up all tin foil for new hat)okay,
now,
is our gov and other govs planning on poofing out in the ether/our air, some serious H1N1 whoop ass this winter to downsize the populations?

There I said it.

 
 
Comment by Al
2009-07-29 11:31:33

This is routine stuff. The job of military planners is to plan. It’s similar to bankers coming up with ‘innovative products’, but less dangerous.

Comment by tgun
2009-07-29 13:38:34

It’s the military deployments that you need to worry about. Heck, I reviewed and commented on some of the DoD (Joint Chiefs) plans in February 2002 for a certain “operation” in March of 2003.

Ended up being Operation Iraqi Freedom (although significantly scaled back in terms of armed troops, equipment, support equipment, etc.). I remember all the posturing being done by Collin Powell, Cheney, and others throughout the year (2002) with the UN. I remember vividly thinking to myself: “so, this is how they implement their plan”.

We better buy some more foil me thinks…

 
 
 
Comment by wmbz
2009-07-29 09:53:20

Detroit man who says stress led him to rob banks sentenced. ASSOCIATED PRESS • July 28, 2009

A Detroit man who began robbing banks to fix his mother’s plumbing has been sentenced to just two years in prison, a significant break.
Advertisement

U.S. District Judge Bernard Friedman says Jimmie Lee Fortune was an “outstanding citizen” before he turned to robbery last year.

The 29-year-old Fortune pleaded guilty in March to stealing nearly $14,000 from five banks in suburban Detroit. Prosecutors agreed not to charge him with three more.

Fortune’s sentencing range was approximately five years to six years in prison. But the guidelines are not mandatory, and the judge settled on two years today.

Fortune says he robbed the first bank to fix his mother’s plumbing and get his driver’s license reinstated. He says he continued robbing banks because he was “stressed.”

Comment by Arizona Slim
2009-07-29 09:56:48

Oh, for pity’s sake. What was wrong with Mom’s plumbing? Jiminy Christmas, dude, you can take some community college classes and learn how to repair it. Heck, I did!

Comment by Olympiagal
2009-07-29 18:07:27

Ahhh…?

I was going to ask what you meant, but then I realized I don’t want to know how you fixed your mom’s plumbing.

…No! I said NO!
*covers ears, sings ‘lalalala’ *

:lol:

 
 
Comment by Blano
2009-07-29 10:10:21

“Fortune says he robbed the first bank to fix his mother’s plumbing and get his driver’s license reinstated.”

Must’ve been a helluva leak.

This isn’t the first guy around here to get off easy for bank robbery. Last year IIRC a guy went scot free even though he was caught in the act. The “economy” and unemployment had him “stressed.” Everybody felt sorry for him.

Comment by LehighValleyGuy
2009-07-29 10:56:05

This isn’t the first guy around here to get off easy for bank robbery.

I don’t see anything really wrong with it.

Comment by desertdweller
2009-07-29 12:21:45

Yep lehigh, just look at WS. Where are my panty hose?
Did the guy wear a hood or mask?
I liked the one(video) where the guy wore a potted plant.
Or was that a movie? It sure was funny.

Witness #1- well officer, it looked like a dracena to me.
Witness #2- No officer, it looked like a ficus..
Witness #3- no no, it looked like a fiddle leaf fig…
But with panty hose,they all look similar.

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Comment by Sleepr Cell
2009-07-29 13:28:16

LOL,

Raising Arizona is a classic for that scenario.

“Boy, you know you got a panry on yer head?”

“I’ll just be taking these hugies,,,, and whatever cash ya got.”

Classic! The cohen Brothers best,..
Next to ‘Oh Brother Where Art Thou’ of course

 
Comment by Olympiagal
2009-07-29 18:05:46

Both among the best movies ever, in my non-humble opinion.

 
 
 
 
Comment by alpha-sloth
2009-07-29 10:59:41

“…because he was stressed…”

The stress of robbing banks for a living, caused him to rob banks for a living.

Comment by Professor Bear
2009-07-29 19:18:11

What caused the banks to rob banks for a living? The stress of financial crisis, perhaps?

Comment by alpha-sloth
2009-07-29 20:19:03

The stress of all that money they could make.

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Comment by lavi d
2009-07-29 21:12:05

What caused the banks to rob banks for a living? The stress of financial crisis, perhaps?

PB, I think you are a chronological mullet.

Business all day, party at night.

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Comment by sleepless_near_seattle
2009-07-29 23:23:23

LOL!

 
 
Comment by Leighsong
2009-07-29 23:51:50

P’Bear -

M-LEC SIVs?

Opaque; where have they gone?

Transparency my…er…nose!

Leigh ;)

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Comment by wmbz
2009-07-29 10:02:08

NYC offers free airfare to homeless to leave city.

NEW YORK — New York City is buying one-way plane tickets for homeless families to leave the city.

It’s part of a Bloomberg administration program to keep the homeless out of the expensive shelter system, which costs $36,000 a year per family. More than 550 families have left the city since 2007. All it takes is for a relative to agree to take them in.

The city employs a travel agency for domestic travel and the Department of Homeless Services handles international travel.

City officials say there are no limits on where a family can be sent and families can reject the offer.

Families have been sent to 24 states and five continents, mostly to Puerto Rico, Florida, Georgia and the Carolinas.

Comment by CarrieAnn
2009-07-29 10:07:08

There’s some real foreshadowing in that story. If I was on the dole I’d be shaking, wondering when they’d move onto the next level.

Comment by alpha-sloth
2009-07-29 11:03:31

If I was on the dole, I’d be deciding where I wanted them to fly me. (I’d probably go with Hawaii.)

Comment by ATE-UP
2009-07-29 16:58:56

I am on the dole, and I would drive to New York City, and have them pay me to fly back. I may be poor, but I ain’t stoopid!!

Oly, how to spell Dum?

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Comment by Olympiagal
2009-07-29 18:03:24

Oly, how to spell Dum?

I opened my mouth to answer you, but there were SO MANY possible comical responses that I had a brain overload, and I had to leap away from the computer before we both a’sploded.

Sorry. :)

 
Comment by alpha-sloth
2009-07-29 21:04:06

You’re on the dole and picking juries, ATE? Times must be tough in the legal world.

 
 
 
 
Comment by DennisN
2009-07-29 11:20:35

In the Hitchhiker’s Guide to the Galaxy they would all be put on the “B” spaceship. :)

Comment by Olympiagal
2009-07-29 18:04:36

With the hair-dressers and telephone sanitizers?
NO kidding!

 
 
Comment by desertdweller
2009-07-29 12:22:46

To the Carolinas? oh great.

HIking the appalachians and more ppl with brain problems.

 
Comment by alpha-sloth
2009-07-29 13:45:30

There’s a locally well-known, friendly bum/drunk in town who is always hanging around the downtown bars, trying to cadge drinks or get a dollar. The bartenders will often pay him a buck or two to go bother another bar, which he will cheerfully do. That bar will then pay him a buck to go bother yet another. He often ends back up at the original bar at the end of the day, and when they say they already paid him to leave, he’ll say they paid me more to come back. A lesson for New York?

Comment by alpha-sloth
2009-07-29 14:01:10

Did I say locally well-known? He’s actually a world-famous internet sensation, who was going to go on the Kimmell (sp?) show, until they found out he had TB.

http://www.wbko.com/home/headlines/29698169.html

Comment by Olympiagal
2009-07-29 19:28:30

* cough… *

You know, Tb ruins a lot of fun situations.

That’s why I don’t breathe when I’m around people anymore. They could be all icky and germy. I hate that.
oh, yeah—I hate people, too.

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Comment by alpha-sloth
2009-07-29 20:22:32

I just never inhale around strangers, and some friends.

 
 
 
 
 
Comment by wmbz
2009-07-29 10:18:52

I can’t afford to eat healthy says lazy lard azz…

‘I can’t afford to eat healthily’ says £600-a-month benefits woman who weighs 22 stone. U.K. Mail

A 25-year-old unemployed woman who was given an £8,000 operation to help her lose 16 stone is complaining because, as well as her weight loss, her benefits have been reduced.

Laura Ripley, who has never worked, was given the operation on the NHS to help her slim down from 38 to 22 stone.

But the 25-year-old, who receives £600 a month in benefits, is unhappy because as a result of losing weight she can no longer claim disability allowance amounting to an extra £340 a month.

This, she says, means she cannot afford to eat healthily - causing her to pile the weight back on.

‘I can’t afford to buy WeightWatchers crisps and cereal bars any more so I eat Tesco’s chocolate bars and packets of Space Invaders crisps, sometimes four of each a day’, says Laura, who spends seven hours a day watching TV.

‘People ask why I don’t snack on an apple - they’re cheap, but emotionally I don’t always feel like an apple.’

The disability allowance money she used to receive was spent on gym workouts, healthy food and having her hair highlighted.

She adds: ‘Without my disability allowance I’m left with just £210 incapacity benefit which I get because of my depression, and £100 income support I receive every two weeks and out of that I have to give them back £70 towards the cost of the £500-a-month flat I’m living in.’

Since the extra allowance stopped Laura has put on a stone in just three weeks and claims she is being treated unfairly.

“I sometimes feel guilty about all the taxpayers’ money that’s been spent on me but I only want an extra £100 a month, that’s all”, says Laura.

Comment by DennisN
2009-07-29 10:38:24

Note: 22 stone equals 308 pounds.

Comment by DennisN
2009-07-29 10:53:49

Eek - 38 stone is 532 pounds!

Comment by kirisdad
2009-07-29 11:31:51

CRIKEY! we are so like our English forebearers.

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Comment by speedingpullet
2009-07-29 17:20:22

Yep, 1 stone = 14 lbs.

Sadly, the UK is not immune to the stupid and lazy - Chav Culture is alive and well (the UK equivalent of Trailer Trash).

And, saying she can’t eat healthily from Tescos is ridiculous - I’d swap my left boobie for a local Tesco’s - its one of the shining glories of the UK supermarket system. They phased out candy by the checkouts decades ago, and have possibly one of the best fresh fruit/veg/fish selections you’ll ever see - most of it organic.

I’d hazard a guess she has to waddle past the fresh fruit and veg - which Tesco’s puts at the entrance of the store in order to find her high carb fodder further back in the aisles. She’s actually burning more calories grazing for Digestive Biscuits than she would be stooping for a bunch of bananas….

Seriously love, forget about the apple (let alone the crisps) when you’re 38 stone and rising…..

“I sometimes feel guilty about all the taxpayers’ money that’s been spent on me but I only want an extra £100 a month, that’s all”, says Laura.

And I’d like a pony.
Sometimes life really sucks….

(And before everyone piles on me for being harsh, remember I’m a tree-hugging bleeding heart hippie liberal commie. I believe that welfare helps more people than it harms. Which is why when I see someone so obviously bilking the system, it annoys me, and gives the other 99%, who use welfare wisely, a bad name)

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Comment by Olympiagal
2009-07-29 18:01:29

And I’d like a pony.

I think you mean ‘I’d like a magical pretty pink pony, with wings, that can fly to the moon.’
Why set your sights lower?

…You know what? Let’s k*ill this person. Just as a favor, in general to everything, and also to save the oxygen.

 
Comment by speedingpullet
2009-07-29 18:53:56

Sorry Oly, I’m a bit hot and grumpy today, as I sort through the Husband’s undies and pack them into boxes…. though I guess I sort of made that plain by my rant ;-)

Sadly, I don’t think we’ll need to k!ll her - she seems to be doing a grand job of it herself. At over 500lbs - and no sign of laying off the kinds of food that got her there in the first place - I’d put odds on her not lasting to 40 before she gets a stroke or thrombosis or diabetes, or some other fatal disease

If she wasn’t kvetching about what she’s had already -bariatric surgery, extra money for depression, etc… when so many people make do on far less than she gets, then I’d have some sympathy.

Not being ‘weightist’ about it - I’m hardly the svelte Pullet I once was, and every lb takes 3 times more effort to shed than it did in my 20’s - just taking umbrage at the sheer bald -faceness of the woman blaming other people for her gaining weight again, because she can’t ‘afford’ Weightwatchers chocolate bikkies…. 0_0

 
Comment by Olympiagal
2009-07-29 19:33:55

What? Undies?! Puttin’ them inna box?!
I must have missed sumpin’ big. Scre*w that chubby Eng*sh lad*y, I wanna hear your news.
Are you moving to a nicer clime, for instance?

Yes, tell us now, wouldja.

I’m gonna ask again tomorrow, as it’s getting late and I gotta go jump in the sea again in a bit.

Yes, really. :)

 
Comment by lavi d
2009-07-29 21:14:01

I’d swap my left boobie for a local Tesco’s

They’re called Fresh and Easy here in Vegas.

 
Comment by Housing Wizard
2009-07-29 23:39:15

Another point . A lot of medications/drugs have the side effect of causing weight gain . I know more people who gained 20 to 40 pounds after they went on a medication.

Also ,remember how the Drug Industry came up with that
weight loss drug and it ended up causing heart damage ?

People forget about the fact that the Medical Profession is
Big Business .

But ,I wonder how much have the health care cost skyrocketed because of illegal drug use . Nobody seems to be talking about that little elephant in the room .

 
Comment by Leighsong
2009-07-30 00:04:52

Let’s talk about it Wiz!

Folks on 8 pills a day; voiding that…er…poison into our water.

jeesh - and that’s conservative!

Some M.D.’s writing prescription drugs because they may be on the dole?

Another time, another conversation.

Best Always,
Leigh

 
 
 
 
Comment by salinasron
2009-07-29 11:04:33

“She adds: ‘Without my disability allowance I’m left with just £210 incapacity benefit which I get because of my depression”

Lady, I can cure that depression real quick. I’ll just put you in a dog run, giving you a head start of course, with a 150 lb rottweiler moving you along. A couple days of that and your depression and sense of entitlement should be cleared up.

Comment by NYCityBoy
2009-07-29 11:24:19

She’d probably eat the rottweiler.

Comment by mikey
2009-07-29 13:36:22

lol :)

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Comment by SDGreg
2009-07-30 01:08:57

More likely she’d stumble and fall, crushing the rottweiler but not even notice she’d landed on something.

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Comment by Arizona Slim
2009-07-29 11:06:55

Years ago, when I was a poor little Slim in Pittsburgh, a friend took me on a tour of the food co-op. It was one of two grocery stores in the Garfield neighborhood, and Garfield wasn’t exactly well off.

Friend showed me how to shop for nutritious food. And, yes, this could be done. Even on my tight budget.

The trick is to shop the periphery of the store, where the produce, dairy, and meats are, and to avoid the center aisles, where the junque is. And spend the bulk of your shopping time/money in the produce section.

 
Comment by Doghouse Riley
2009-07-29 11:14:34

If “Laura” was a US citizen, I wonder which political party she would support?

Usually it’s easy to guess but “I sometimes feel guilty about all the taxpayer’s money that’s been spent on me” adds just the merest twinge of uncertainty.

Comment by sfbubblebuyer
2009-07-29 11:58:55

Let’s hope that soon they’ll be doling out for a pauper’s funeral for her.

 
Comment by Skip
2009-07-29 12:00:56

I’m guessing the Libertarian National Socialist Green Party, because the Queens family name was Sachsen-Coburg und Gotha before they changed it to Windsor.

Comment by Olympiagal
2009-07-29 17:57:35

That’s too deep. Cut it out, man. :)

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Comment by InMontana
2009-07-29 14:07:04

Well my local 300-lb slob supported Obama because Oprah liked him

Comment by alpha-sloth
2009-07-29 16:15:56

“my local 300-lb slob…”

You only have one? It’s more like 1 in 10 around here.

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Comment by ATE-UP
2009-07-29 17:23:59

MY local 300 lb slob. Timeless. :)

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Comment by Elanor
2009-07-29 11:38:15

Generally, I’m not a violent person, but this woman makes me want to reach through the internets and throttle the worthless life out of her.

Have a nice day, all! :D

Comment by Al
2009-07-29 12:12:44

It’s strange how gimmee gimmee gimmee + woe is me + learned (embraced) helplessness just makes the blood pressure go up. I think it’s important to have compassion, but it just doesn’t work when the person won’t take any responsibility for anything.

You have a nice day too Elanor.

(If we each use one hand to throttle her, can either of be found guilty?)

 
 
Comment by SaladSD
2009-07-29 12:00:32

Emotionally she feels like a donut. Where’s Darwin?

 
 
Comment by AZgolfer
2009-07-29 10:18:54

More on Mortgages Ltd and “Radical Bunny” from Phoenix.

Valley venture accused of fraud
Firm tied to Mortgages Ltd. misled investors, SEC says
by Andrew Johnson and Catherine Reagor - Jul. 29, 2009 12:00 AM
The Arizona Republic
The latest chapter in the yearlong saga of Mortgages Ltd.’s downfall occurred Tuesday as federal regulators filed securities-fraud charges against a firm that lent millions of dollars to the private commercial lender.

The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission is charging the Phoenix investment firm Radical Bunny and its four principals with making false and misleading statements about the safety and performance of the investments they offered. The four principals are managing members Tom Hirsch, Harish Shah, and husband and wife Howard Walder and Berta “Bunny” Walder.

Bruce Heurlin, a Tucson attorney representing the four individuals, denied the SEC’s charges.
“The Radical Bunny members always dealt with Mortgages Ltd. and were assured by Mortgages Ltd. and attorneys that there were no violations involved in any of this,” he said.

Reached by telephone, Hirsch, Radical Bunny’s managing director, hung up without making a comment.

Mortgages Ltd., once the state’s largest private commercial lender, went into Chapter 11 bankruptcy in June 2008 following the suicide of founder Scott Coles.

From 2005 to 2008, Radical Bunny raised more than $197 million from about 900 investors and then used the money to make high-interest loans to Mortgages Ltd. According to the SEC, the defendants told investors that their money could be used only for commercial developments, when in fact Mortgages Ltd. wasn’t limited in how it could use the money.

Purposefully misleading investors is a violation of federal securities laws. According to the SEC, the defendants told investors they weren’t subject to securities laws and promised safe, steady returns. Court documents say Radical Bunny’s principals were warned several times by attorneys that their operations violated securities laws.

Radical Bunny was not registered with the SEC in any capacity and did not register any offering under the securities laws. So, in addition to the securities-fraud charges, Hirsch, Shah and the Walders are charged with offering and selling unregistered securities and with acting as unregistered broker-dealers in violation of federal securities laws.

Hirsch and Shah are partners in an accounting firm that handled Mortgages Ltd. founder Cole’s personal accounts. Howard Walder is a licensed pharmacist. Berta Walder is a teacher.

Radical Bunny investor Cathy Baker said she and other investors are “extremely pleased” that the SEC has taken action. “We really feel that this is a white-collar crime that should be prosecuted very thoroughly,” Baker said.

Baker, 41, of Chandler, said she and her elderly mother invested a combined $1.3 million in Radical Bunny. Like many other investors, they now are struggling without the dividends they received before the investment operation collapsed.

When Mortgages Ltd. went into bankruptcy, it had almost $1 billion in loans outstanding to developers. Since then, most of those projects, including the Centerpoint condominiums in Tempe, have stalled because of a shortage of money and the real-estate market’s downturn. Several developers who had been getting loans from Mortgages Ltd. have since gone into bankruptcy.

Mortgages Ltd. emerged from bankruptcy in April. Investors forced Radical Bunny into bankruptcy late last year.

Mortgages Ltd. and Radical Bunny investors still are trying to recover their money. Regulatory actions against Radical Bunny’s principals could help recover more money from the firm for investors.

The SEC charges come after the Arizona Corporation Commission filed similar charges in March.

Mortgages Ltd. isn’t named as a defendant in either complaint.

Diana Tani, assistant regional attorney with the SEC’s Los Angeles office, said the agency’s lawsuit is based on interviews and depositions with several key witnesses, including the individuals named in the suit.

Radical Bunny charged Mortgages Ltd. 13 percent to 14 percent interest on the loans made with its investors’ money. Investors typically received 11 percent returns on their money. Radical Bunny’s managing directors got a 2 percent fee.

The SEC’s complaint alleges that Hirsch received at least $3 million in fees, the Walders received at least $2 million, and Shah received at least $700,000.

Both the SEC and the Corporation Commission complaints call for the defendants to pay civil penalties and return any money they received from illegal activities.

Comment by Housing Wizard
2009-07-29 14:27:45

No doubt this lawsuit will result in a plead for a bail out for investors
because of the SEC violations . The money is gone and who will the bag
holder be ?

 
 
Comment by measton
2009-07-29 10:31:59

Germany entered into deflation for the first time in 22 years in July, with a projected 0.6% decline in prices compared to the same month last year.

 
Comment by Professor Bear
2009-07-29 10:52:54

I thought the TARP price tag was $700 bn. How on earth did it get inflated to over $20 tn? Am I missing something, or does this simply amount to a direct attempt by the government to reflate the credit bubble?

Jul 21, 2009, 12:02 p.m. EST
Carping over TARP
Inspector general says potential bailout costs could reach $23.7 trillion
By Ronald D. Orol, MarketWatch

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) — Lawmakers on Tuesday latched on concerns raised by a bank bailout overseer about a lack of transparency for a package of government programs that could carry a potential cost totaling nearly $24 trillion.

At issue is a report put out by Neil Barofsky, the inspector general for one of the Treasury’s rescue programs, the so-called Troubled Asset Relief Program, or TARP.

The report calculates that taxpayer support to the financial system is currently at $3 trillion — while potential support could be as high as $23.7 trillion. Read the report.

The costs include $6.8 trillion in government assistance offered by the Federal Reserve, along with $7.2 trillion in government funding for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac as well as other groups and another $2.3 trillion in programs provided by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp.

As part of their concerns over transparency, lawmakers took issue with the way the Treasury Department has set up a public-private program seeking to clear $40 billion in toxic mortgage securities from financial institutions.

“This arrangement is vulnerable to conflicts of interest, collusion, and money laundering,” said Rep. Edolphus Towns, chairman of the House Oversight Committee.

Comment by Housing Wizard
2009-07-29 14:21:54

PB………7.3 trillion to Freddie and Fannie . And people use to laugh at me when I had the theory they were gong to make F&F the bag holder .

 
Comment by cobaltblue
2009-07-29 17:18:46

“I thought the TARP price tag was $700 bn. How on earth did it get inflated to over $20 tn? Am I missing something, or does this simply amount to a direct attempt by the government to reflate the credit bubble?”

Evidently you weren’t listening to NPR at 3:39 A.M. Sunday when the announcement was made in Portugeuse.

It also appeared in fairly small “1 point pica” print in the Legal Notices section of the Melbourne, Arkansas Ozark Tribune Monday afternoon edition. Many mistook it for an underline of the caption “Fed Does Nothing”.

Comment by Professor Bear
2009-07-29 19:13:41

Well, I do recall Ben Bernanke stating something to the effect that subprime would be “contained” to $200 bn or so in losses. Perhaps a similar underestimate applies to the initial estimate of TARP requirements?

 
 
 
Comment by Rancher
2009-07-29 11:23:41

Why are so many homeowners underwater on their mortgages?

In crafting programs to prevent foreclosures, policymakers have assumed that the primary reason homeowners owe more on their home than it is worth is that they bought at the top of the market. In other words, they’ve lost equity primarily through forces beyond their control.

A new study challenges this premise and finds that excessive borrowing may have played as great a role.

Michael LaCour-Little, a finance professor at California State University at Fullerton, looked at 4,000 foreclosures in Southern California from 2006-08. He found that, at least in Southern California, borrowers who defaulted on their mortgages didn’t purchase their homes at the top of the market. Instead, the average acquisition was made in 2002 and many homes lost to foreclosure were bought in the 1990s. More than half of all borrowers who lost their homes had already refinanced at least once, and four out of five had a second mortgage.

The original loan-to-value ratio for these borrowers stood at a reasonable 84%, but second and third liens left homeowners with a combined loan-to-value ratio of about 150% by the time of the foreclosure sale date.

Borrowers, meanwhile, took out around $2 billion in equity from their homes, or nearly eight times the $262 million that they put into their homes. Lenders lost around four times as much as borrowers, seeing $1 billion in losses.

“[W]hile house price declines were important in explaining the incidence of negative equity, its magnitude was more strongly influenced by increased debt usage,” writes Mr. LaCour-Little. “Hence, borrower behavior, rather than housing market forces, is the predominant factor affecting outcomes.”

If other housing markets across the country offer similar findings, then the study argues that current “policies aimed at protecting homeowners from foreclosure are misguided”

(Excerpt) Read more at blogs.wsj.com …

Comment by SaladSD
2009-07-29 12:03:11

Yup, in the land of Hummers and boob jobs, homeowners snorted their equity.

Comment by lavi d
2009-07-29 12:24:38

Yup, in the land of Hummers and boob jobs, homeowners snorted their equity.

Beauty.

There really should be an “HBB Hall of Fame” for such delightful quotes as this.

 
Comment by mikey
2009-07-29 14:04:06

The way California’s going, they’ll all be shopping at K-Mart for cheap bras and sniffing glue again.

 
 
 
Comment by ylekiot1
2009-07-29 11:34:10

Soon to be seen on bumper stickers near you:

If you helped pay for my car/house/creditcard/taxes/retirement/heathcare/foodstamps/ education etc, HONK!

 
Comment by rentor
2009-07-29 11:53:02

I see a lot of people on this board believe that all countries in the world were impacted equally by the housing bubble in the west.

My take is this has changed the world dynamic to the point where China can see themselves as the next superpower at the expense of the US. By that I would imagine the leadership in China is focused on overtaking the US. For example, they are apparently world leaders in alternate energy. I don’t think they need anything from USA.

Comment by ACH
2009-07-29 19:10:28

China has serious
1) Political Stability problems.
2) Debt problems.
3) A rolling demographic disaster.
4) Environmental problems.
5) etc
And is not really trying to solve any of them.
Roidy

Comment by Leighsong
2009-07-30 00:07:42

+1 Roidy.

Great post.

Leigh

 
 
 
Comment by wmbz
2009-07-29 11:56:47

Frank threatens banks to stop foreclosures
House chairman threatens banks that if they don’t stop foreclosures, Congress will make them! July 29, 2009

WASHINGTON (AP) — A senior House Democrat threatened banks Wednesday that if they don’t volunteer to save more homeowners from foreclosure, Congress will make them.

In a sternly worded statement, Rep. Barney Frank said Congress will revive legislation that would let bankruptcy judges write down a person’s monthly mortgage payment if the number of loan modifications remain low.

Frank, chairman of the House Financial Services Committee, also said his committee won’t consider legislation to help banks lend unless there is a “significant increase” in mortgage modifications.

Frank’s statement was aimed at adding momentum to a deal struck Tuesday between Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner and more than two dozen mortgage companies. The two sides agreed to set the goal of adjusting 500,000 loans by Nov. 1.

But it was far from clear whether that would happen.

Loan servicers say they are still trying to play catch up to a deluge of customer requests by hiring and training thousands of new employees. Banks also are trying to sort through which customers face a legitimate financial hardship.

Also, many loans have been bundled and sold to investors as securities, complicating efforts to modify the terms.

Congress tried earlier this spring to pass legislation that would give people a chance to keep their homes by filing for bankruptcy. But while President Barack Obama said he supported the measure, he did little to see it through and it was defeated amid an aggressive lobbying effort by banks.

The measure failed in the Senate by a 45-51 vote, falling 15 votes short of the 60 needed to overcome procedural hurdles.

“People in the servicing industry and in the broader financial industry must understand that if this last effort to produce significant modifications fails, the argument for reviving the bankruptcy option will be extremely strong, and I think there is a substantial chance that the outcome will be different,” Frank said.

Comment by bobesb
2009-07-29 12:50:25

http://www.cnbc.com/id/32194655

govt re-worked refinaning -unintended consequences. Oh well

 
Comment by salinasron
2009-07-29 17:09:35

” A senior House Democrat threatened banks Wednesday that if they don’t volunteer to save more homeowners from foreclosure, Congress will make them.”

I think that this pompous windbag needs to have his office and home picketed! We could also cut off his supply of Viagra, but he’s such a fat slob he probably can’t find it anyway.

Comment by Lisa
2009-07-29 19:05:14

” A senior House Democrat threatened banks Wednesday that if they don’t volunteer to save more homeowners from foreclosure, Congress will make them.”

Yeah, and will Congress then “make them” write mortgages in the future? Seriously, how could a bank be expected to make a long term loan if there’s a chance the loan will just get written down when market circumstances no longer favor the FB?

Will anyone other than Bill Gates “qualify” for a home loan if cram downs start happening? Will everyone else be paying 8% to compensate for the higher risk? Housing still crashes.

Comment by Professor Bear
2009-07-29 20:17:10

“…how could a bank be expected to make a long term loan if there’s a chance the loan will just get written down when market circumstances no longer favor the FB?”

I suppose banks could develop prudent underwriting standards which avoid lending outlandish sums of money relative to buyers’ ability to repay the loans (read “local incomes”). If home prices had never become unhinged from local incomes, there would be no crisis, would there?

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Comment by Lisa
2009-07-29 21:00:14

30% down payments, here we come.

I think Neil was right on this score. “Prudent” underwriting will involve the buyer ponying up a big chunk of change before getting a loan.

 
 
 
 
Comment by neuromance
2009-07-29 18:53:21

Politicians like Frank need both votes and money. They’ve got to walk a fine line to keep both the voters and the contributors happy. He’ll rail against foreclosures, but he’s not going to damage the financial companies.

I’d guess they’d set up a vote which looks like it would help “the little guy”, but it will lose or it will not do anything of significance.

 
 
Comment by wmbz
2009-07-29 12:20:25

Scott Ott’s Examiner: Bernanke re-branding Fed as transparent, friendly.
July 28, 2009

With 250 House members signing on to Rep. Ron Paul’s bill calling for greater congressional oversight of the Federal Reserve, its usually reclusive chairman, Ben Bernanke, has taken to the airwaves to “re-brand” the central bank with appearances on 60 Minutes, PBS and elsewhere in the past week.

“Just because we meet in private to manipulate interest rates and the money supply, and to decide which corporations will get taxpayer bailout dollars, doesn’t mean the Fed is some kind of covert agency, unaccountable to the public, that controls the global economy like a marionette,” said Bernanke, addressing a townhall-style meeting in Kansas City, Missouri.

“The folks at your Federal Reserve are your neighbors, going to the grocery store, taking the kids to little league, teaching Sunday School, and occasionally stepping behind the crimson veil to bet $4.3 trillion of your money on a single spin of the alabaster wheel,” he said.

The Fed chief added that, “most of the secrecy rap against The Fed is just a perception issue.”

To allay suspicion, he said, future meetings to set interest rates will be “as open and transparent as the rules of the ancient order allow. For example, when a new interest rate is fixed, the public will know it in virtual real-time, as white smoke emerges from the chimney of the conclave chamber.”

Critics have complained that pronouncements from The Fed are often written in a manner than leaves too much room for interpretation, so Bernanke said each member of Congress would receive “his own junior version of the cryptogram decoding matrix — a genuine replica of the gold and crystal one used by Fed board members.”

While the records of how much money the Fed has distributed, and to which corporations, will likely remain secret, Bernanke said, “Americans trust The Fed to do the right thing for them even when no one is watching except the all-seeing eye atop the pyramid. Frankly, the mystique just adds to the allure that keeps the curious coming back for more.”

Comment by Arizona Slim
2009-07-29 12:48:41

While the records of how much money the Fed has distributed, and to which corporations, will likely remain secret, Bernanke said, “Americans trust The Fed to do the right thing for them even when no one is watching except the all-seeing eye atop the pyramid. Frankly, the mystique just adds to the allure that keeps the curious coming back for more.”

Ummm, Ben, what parallel universe are you reporting from? I don’t think that Americans trust the Fed to do the right thing. No, sirree, not at all.

 
 
Comment by Arizona Slim
 
Comment by Professor Bear
2009-07-29 19:08:54

Do markets normally need someone “pulling on the joystick” to right themselves, or are they normally self-correcting? I have always assumed the latter, but please correct me if you know otherwise.

Financial Times
House prices open door to optimism
By Sarah O’Connor in Washington
Published: July 29 2009 22:17 | Last updated: July 29 2009 23:24

Has the first shoe to drop in the global crisis finally stopped dropping? After two sets of surprisingly positive data on US housing this week, some are declaring that the market that led the world into crisis has bottomed out.

They have a strong case. House prices rose slightly in May for the first time since the US’s credit-fuelled housing bubble began to burst three years ago. People are starting to buy and sell homes again after months when it seemed that the only properties changing hands were those in foreclosure.

“It was like a plane that was pointed at the ground . . . and now we appear to be pulling extremely hard on the joystick and it seems to be levelling out,” says Ian Shepherdson, chief US economist at High Frequency Economics.

 
Comment by Professor Bear
2009-07-29 19:37:09

My wife was delivering flyers for a neighborhood potluck next week, and to her consternation, she discovered that a nearby home owned by a nice young couple within the past year was devoid of furniture or other signs of human occupancy. The home is listed on RedFin as a short sale, but at a price which is $50 per square foot above the recent San Diego average of $200/sq ft. The bank’s marketing strategy appears to be failing, as the home has already been on the market for 136 days without selling. Since there is no For Sale sign out front, I have to wonder how many other vacant, unsold REO homes lurk in the nearby vicinity.

16023 Big Spgs San Diego, CA 92127
Price: $310,000
Beds: 2
Baths: 2
Sq. Ft.: 1,240
$/Sq. Ft.: $250
Lot Size: -
Property Type: Residential, Twinhome
Stories: 1
Year Built: 1981
Community: High Country West
County: San Diego
MLS#: 090015854
Source: SANDICOR
Status: Contingent
On Redfin: 136 days

This is a short sale. Offer accepted pending lender approval of short sale. No more showings at this time. Custom paint, newer appliances, no common wall with neighbor. Variance granted for the SFA. Home has room to grow with fold down stairs that lead to 22×15 attic. This can be transformed into an additional 1 or 2 bedrooms, office, etc. Peaceful street, great place to call home. Owners have 1 dog. Refrig, washer/dryer not included.

 
Comment by Professor Bear
2009-07-29 19:51:12

I just posted on a nearby home which is listed on RedFin as a short sale. The buyers paid $455,000 in fall 2004, and after 163 days on the market, it remains unsold at a wishing price of $310,000. If someone happens to snap it up at the current list price, the loss off the 2004 sale price would be

(310/455-1)*100 = -32 percent.

On an annualized basis, the loss would be about

((310/455)^(365/(14+31+30+31+4*365+182))-1)*100 = -7.7% / year, the exact mirror image of the annualized nominal rate of price appreciation from 1988-2004.

Come on, investors — can’t you spot a bargain?

Property History for 16023 Big Springs Way (San Diego 92127)

Date Event Price Appreciation Source
Mar 15, 2009 Listed $310,000 – SANDICOR #090015854
Sep 16, 2004 Sold $455,000 7.7%/yr Public Records
Sep 29, 1988 Sold $140,000 – Public Records

 
Comment by aNYCdj
2009-07-29 20:02:39

Foreclosure hits MJ’s dokatrrrrr

LAS VEGAS (AP) — Michael Jackson’s personal physician is more than $100,000 behind on his mortgage payments and could face foreclosure on the country club home authorities searched in their manslaughter investigation into the singer’s death, records show.

Dr. Conrad Murray, 56, who has been dogged by money trouble, was racking up the debt when he went to work for Jackson in May.

Documents filed July 23 with the Clark County Recorder show Murray accumulated a debt of more than $100,000 plus penalties since January on a nearly $1.7 million loan on the mansion at the exclusive Red Rock Country Club.

Assessment records show his 5,268-square-foot home near the 18th hole of a golf course has four bedrooms, three fireplaces, a pool and spa. Its original sale price in 2004 was $1.1 million.

Murray’s lawyer in Houston, Edward Chernoff, issued a statement acknowledging the cardiologist’s home was in “pre-foreclosure” and blaming Murray’s financial woes on his inability to make a living “as a result of this investigation.”

“His hope is he can forestall foreclosure until he can once again begin working as a doctor,” Chernoff said, adding that Murray was not paid for the two months he worked for Michael Jackson and concert promoter AEG.

AEG Live, the promoter of a now-canceled series of London comeback concerts for Jackson, has said the singer insisted the company hire Murray to accompany him to England.

Company president and chief executive Randy Phillips has said AEG advanced Jackson money to pay the doctor and had been negotiating to provide Murray a $150,000 monthly salary.

Mary Hunt, a foreclosure officer handling Murray’s case for Stewart Title, said Murray stopped paying his $15,000 a month mortgage in January and could face foreclosure by November.

In addition, Murray’s Nevada medical practice has been slapped with more than $400,000 in court judgments since 2008, and he faces at least two other pending cases.

Court records also show Murray was hit last December with a nearly $3,700 judgment for failure to pay child support in San Diego and had his wages garnished for almost $1,500 by a credit card company.

Murray told investigators he administered the anesthetic propofol to Jackson the night he died to help him sleep, according to a law enforcement official who spoke to The Associated Press on condition of anonymity because the investigation is ongoing.

The official said investigators are working under the theory that propofol caused Jackson’s heart to stop. Toxicology reports that should show what killed Jackson are pending.

Murray has not been called a suspect, and authorities say he is cooperating.

Chernoff has said Murray “happened to find” Jackson unconscious in his bedroom but “didn’t prescribe or administer anything that should have killed Michael Jackson.”

Warrants served at Murray’s offices in Houston and Las Vegas show that Los Angeles police are investigating Jackson’s death as a possible manslaughter case.

Officers also spent nine hours Tuesday searching Murray’s medical office, Global Cardiovascular Associates but did not specify what was taken.

Chernoff, through spokeswoman Miranda Sevcik, confirmed a Los Angeles Times report that authorities sought prescriptions “administered, prescribed, obtained, transferred, sold, distributed, and/or concealed” to Jackson or various pseudonyms.

Names in the warrant included Omar Arnold, Paul Farance, Bryan Singleton, Jack London, Jimmy Nicholas, Blanca Nicholas, Roselyn Muhammad, Faheem Muhammad, Frank Tyson, Fernand Diaz, Peter Madonie, Josephine Baker and Kai Chase. It also listed Prince Jackson, the singer’s 12-year-old son, as a possible alias.

Sevcik declined additional comment.

A Las Vegas attorney who has represented Murray on business and financial matters said she had no information on the matter.

“I have nothing whatsoever to add or subtract to the ongoing media frenzy,” lawyer Puoy Premsrirut said in an e-mail.–

 
Comment by Professor Bear
2009-07-29 20:07:52

I have figured out where lots of San Diego inventory resides: On the foreclosure dot com web site listings database!

San Diego County Search Results

Real Estate Listing Results 1 - 25 of 40,845

Comment by GH
2009-07-29 21:43:30

Boo!

Now that is what I call SHADOW inventory!!!

 
Comment by SDGreg
2009-07-30 01:36:20

Wow! That is huge! Isn’t the number of houses for sale in San Diego County running around 10,000? Even if there’s some overlap here, the shadow inventory is at least 3x the official inventory. How can that not eventually put substantial downward pressure on existing prices?

 
 
Comment by Professor Bear
2009-07-29 20:14:30

Wall Street Journal

* OPINION
* JULY 29, 2009, 10:38 P.M. ET

Can the Fed Identify Bubbles Before They Happen?
The New York Fed’s president says it can. If only it were that easy.

By DONALD L. LUSKIN

President Barack Obama proposed last month that the Fed act as an overall “systemic risk” regulator, with consolidated supervisory responsibility over “large, interconnected firms whose failure could threaten the stability of the system.” Now William C. Dudley, the ex-Goldman Sachs economist just appointed president of the New York Federal Reserve, has upped the ante. He thinks the Fed should be responsible for identifying and preventing asset-price bubbles. Considering that the Fed’s track record reveals more skill at causing bubbles than preventing them, this is a very dangerous idea.

In a speech in late June in Switzerland, Mr. Dudley said, “I think that this crisis has demonstrated that the cost of waiting to clean up asset bubbles after they burst can be very high. That suggests we should explore how to respond earlier.” Mr. Dudley claims that “Asset bubbles may not be that hard to identify—especially large ones” and suggests “additional policy instruments”—that is, new regulatory powers for the Fed to “more directly influence risk premia.” Because risk premia are a key element in determining asset prices, Mr. Dudley is effectively asking for the power to control asset prices.

Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke and former Chairman Alan Greenspan both disagree. Mr. Greenspan once said that he doubted “that bubbles, even if identified early, could be pre-empted short of the central bank inducing a substantial contraction in economic activity—the very outcome we would be seeking to avoid.” According to Mr. Bernanke, even if the Fed “could identify bubbles, monetary policy is far too blunt a tool for effective use against them.” For these experienced central bankers, policy is a matter of risk-management under uncertainty; they don’t imagine that they are wise enough to detect every problem and solve it.

Comment by GH
2009-07-29 21:42:06

The housing bubble could have been averted without monetary policy. A policeman at each lender would have sufficed to prevent the most onerous fraud which led to this calamity.

Seriously, would a simple income verification requirement not have stopped the problem before it happened?

Comment by Housing Wizard
2009-07-29 23:21:35

GH …I agree with you . The problem was fraud in lending . If people could of
paid their payments ,they would of had staying power during the downturn . Leverage buying without ability to debt service long term is a lethal combination .

The talking Heads don’t talk about how absurd the money supply was
during the Boom years either . Housing boom could of been averted by just raising the rates in a timely matter also (like in 2003 maybe )

The point is that Big Business/Wall Street liked the Boom and everybody was happy selling products from equity extraction or easy credit ,and
because of the wealth effect the home buyers thought the property would pay for the luxury spending ,or retirement ,or
College or anything else . Remember during the boom everything revolved around real estate ,including commercials .

 
 
 
Comment by aNYCdj
2009-07-29 20:47:34
Comment by alpha-sloth
2009-07-29 21:12:30

Wow. Personally, I don’t care to be anywhere directly behind a horse, much less doin’ the do. Question- Was there an accent change? And was it to Australian?

 
 
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