Bits Bucket For August 1, 2009
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The Housing Bubble
Examining the home price boom and its effect on owners, lenders, regulators, realtors and the economy as a whole.
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TAMPA — With a 4-year-old son to mother and college classes to begin soon, Daphon Baker is having trouble finding a part-time job. Baker, 18, said she has looked for work at nearly every clothing and grocery store in the area, but there are few openings and a swollen applicant pool.
Florida’s welfare rolls grew 15.2 percent over the past year, according to the latest data, a trend many economists say will continue even after the recession ebbs.
http://www.tampabay.com/news/politics/state/article1023722.ece
Lets see…18 minus 4 minus 9 months gestation equals somewhere in the 13 year old range…So “who” I ask, got a 13 year old pregnant and “where” is he now ??
Harry: “There just aren’t any jobs out there.”
Lloyd: “Yeah, unless you’re willing to work FORTY hours a week.”
I’m completely missing your point. It looks like you are writing a play or referencing some characters I haven’t heard of. Or saying there are lots of FORTY hour a week jobs available out there, or that people who go to school and need a part time job are too lazy to deserve part time work . . . ????? Not sure at all
I was quoting the movie, “Dumb and Dumber”.
I almost always use statutory rape as an example to disabuse my college students of the strongly held notion that gov’t must prove intent or some other culpable state of mind to establish an offense. The idea that ignorance or consent cannot constitute a defense really gets up their hackles; they roll their eyes, mumble under their breaths, when I tell them hard lines sometimes have to be drawn. “OK”, I’ll ask them, “Anything should go? How about a 40-year old on a two-year old?” Of course, they respond, “No way!” I’ll come back, “All right. How about a 39-year old on a three-year old?,” and so on.
The point is not to convince them that statutory rape is a good or bad idea. It’s to dispel the widespread belief– reinforced by lawyers– that in the law, as in kindergarten, one can always beat the rap by pleading, “I didn’t do it on purpose!”
And of course “recklessness” is an intermediate mens rea between the “intentional” or “knowingly” and even weaker levels. If you’re driving down a street doing 50 in a 30 zone texting on your cell phone and “accidentally” run over somebody’s kid, you will fit the second degree murder mens rea.
So who are these lawyers who promulgate such stupidity? You’d flunk the bar exam with such nonsense.
Oops…for the non-lawyers (i.e. decent people) mens rea is lawyer talk for “a bad attitude”. In general you need to prove a bad attitude along with a bad act to get convicted of a crime. Strict liability crimes, like statutory rape, drop the mens rea requirement.
I am an attorney and I am also a decent person. I might add, I would take 10 lawyers over 10 clients anyday. People HUNT for the exceptions to the rule, to belittle certain classes of people. Most (95%) of the lawyers I know, and have cases with, I would trust their word on anything.
I am not offended, just get tired of the lawyer crap when most of it is unfounded.
P.S. My last comment on this.
Ate-up,
Just got signed up for the LSAT. When I retire, I may just go to law school in three years. I want to see what I will score. I have a LSAT 2009 prep book from Mcgraw Hill and I will start studying. They have a proctor here in Afghanistan for the soldiers who are looking at law school. Plus my home state will pay for most of it for combat veterans I think. Most people accuse me of “hiding” in law school in this economy, but It cant hurt. Alot of people say the field is saturated with lawyers and I believe that. Alot of people say “dont go to law school”, but they are using their law degrees!
Don’t listen to “most people”. They are jealous of your accomplishments, (not that I have any). Also, if you love the law that much, and can find an area of it you like, you will become an excellent attorney.
I say this because your military experience, obvious intelligence, and fortitude will make you an excellent adversarial practitioner.
Let me know your LSAT score, but don’t take it as determinative. One of the best lawyers I know didn’t do well on it. He scored (old scale 300-800) 465. Begged his way into law school. He has raised two fine children and is a multimillionaire. I scored 730. Had drug problem, lost everything, and didn’t practice for 15 years. No kids either.
It is fortitude, normal upbringing, and innate skills from past experience (military) which will make you a good attorney. Not an LSAT score.
Although, LSAT is still reasonably important for ability, and more important for acceptance to school.
Generally, I would say low score don’t go. In your case, I am not worried about your score. You will do fine.
There is still some gratification in this profession. Finally, you also have an excellent (and well deserved) economic advantage re schooling costs.
Stpn,
The most important prep for the LSAT is probably taking a few old exams with a real time allotment. This will get you into the “rhythm” required during the real exam - a sense of how much time to devote to any given question. You need to quickly determine when to skip a question and come back later.
That’s all I did when I took the LSAT at age 39 in 1992. I got a 165 which is a 94th percentile. Sadly the LSAT people keep changing the scoring every few years.
Dennis: Didn’t know you you were an attorney, or forgot. I must have misread your post, and the “decent person” jumped out at me. Sorry.
Step. plus, I agree with what Dennis said too.
Actually, the best prep for the LSAT was what I did. I taught the Stanley Kaplan class twice before I even took it. I was working my first job after college and living with parents at very, very low rent to save up and pay off my student loans and I found that I felt really guilty spending money on anything but loan payments, car payments, insurance and gas as I was “mooching” off my parents. So I got myself hired as a GRE teacher by Stanley Kaplan on “emergency assignment” to the LSAT. Bought a really nice winter coat too.
But I don’t suppose you have that option in Afghanistan, so, yes, read through the strategy stuff in your prep book and just force yourself to take sample tests - as many as you can get your hands on. And do the problems that aren’t specifically from the old tests too if you have them. The prep companies make those harder than the real test on purpose. If you can do those, you can do pretty much anything on the test.
polly, that story is interesting.
Whoops. I better go back mostly to lurking. Really meant just to say kids find it hard to believe one can be prosecuted successfully even if he/she doesn’t harbor some culpable state of mind, i.e. recklessness, negligence, on down the spectrum. I’ll blame it on caffeine OD.
Stpn: FWIW, I found the best prep for LSAT to be practice tests, over and over and over. Best prep for bar exam? Couldn’t tell you. It took me two tries to pass my state’s essay section. People asked me what I did the second time that I didn’t do the first. The truth? Nothing. So I don’t want to give you a bum steer. Anything I told you could give you a pass. . .or a fail. Good luck over there and back here.
I agree with Dennis regarding the timing. You need to know exactly where you’re are at all times. That was the most mentally draining test I have ever taken. Focus on the logic games, those will twist your brain around good. You also have to practice retaining chunks of knowledge. I have ADD so by the time I was done reading long passages I’d already daydreamed twice, or written a song or something like that, and completely forgot what was 3 paragraphs back. A few of those and, bam, you’re down. The time limit is what killed me.
My best friend that went to U.Chicago and works for Cravath banged out a 179 with time to spare. The guy is a logic machine + a complete asshole, but I love him.
Thanks guys..great advice….I will take it to heart…
Legal age for sex in the UK is 16 (or was). I personally think that age is about right too. We delude ourselves over here that our kids are not sexually active between 16-18. And I truly hate those parents who want to have the guy arrested because their 16/17 yr. old daughter is sexually active.
Kinda not really on topic, I know. Just wanted to throw that out there. Must be my morning for opinions.
Huge difference between 13 & 16 when it comes to being rational about consent…
Any ladies care to chime in here ??
I’d just like to add that if the kid only just turned 4 and she is almost 19, there is a chance the sex happened when she was 14, not 13.
Not really any different, but I have a slightly less visceral reaction to high school freshman having sex than to a middle school/jr. high student. No valid reason - just a feeling. Still statutory rape in all the states that I am aware of. Are there any that allow a 14 year old to be married?
I think you can get married in Kentucky at any age.
I am wrong. Checked it. New Hampshire (of all places) 13 with conditions. Alabama 14 with conditions.
If the guy was 13 as well, then who was raping whom?
I think California is one of the states that has a proximity exemption for statutory rape, i.e. an eighteen-year-old having sex with a seventeen-year-old won’t get prosecuted, but an eighteen-year-old having sex with a fourteen-year-old will.
On the other hand, living requirements (as in summer camp) are crazy strict; a seventeen-year-old can’t room with an eighteen-year-old unless they’re related. Four years I worked at a Boy Scout camp and got very lucky that the female staffers (no more than three a summer) were all in the same age bracket, because that meant we got the one spare room inside the lodge.
baby daddy is a Plaaayahhhh and is out spittin his rap rhymes for his dough
I’ ve said it before the most radical thing we can do is in America force people like her and baby daddy earn how to read, write and speak English, but we cant say those things, because it would infringe on their rights to be Ghetto.
dj: Isn’t that the truth.
Saw part of msnbc program this afternoon the topic was that the black population is addressing their issues and this from leaders in their community. I liked what I heard, but I also think that the white population and the mexican population needs to get all over the uneducated, the gangs, the list is long.
I think it is about time socially there is no room for excuses and ‘babydaddy’ and so forth, whether black, white, brown and so forth.
because it would infringe on their rights to be Ghetto.
+1
but if you point out flaws in being ghetto, you are being “racist”….
I am a black man, and when I say things like that, my own people call me “Uncle Tom” and other ignorant names. It just shows how shallow they are….But that’s another subject…
Now I KNOW you will be an ASS-KICKING attorney.
Stpn:
Your cool man.. check out my handle zydeco music from Louisiana……I’m hoping its going to be a serious alternative to the all swearing and “N” word music we have today.
Heck I listen to mostly just classical music. No swearing or nasty words there either. Most of the time, no words at all.
Once a form of music is determined to have “commercial/financial potential in popular culture”, it’s all downhill from there.
Stpn I think you would have thought the spkrs on this show were right on.
And I still believe that whatever color etc, need to be called on the carpet and become better citizens, in their hamlet,town,city, state, and country. Better educated and use their brains more than their mouths and bodies.
IMHO
scdave, glad you noticed.
Nice to see her trying, but what happened to our society since the 60s? sheesh.
“Baker, 18, said she has looked for work at nearly every clothing and grocery store in the area, but there are few openings and a swollen applicant pool.”
Forget the grocery store employment. Now that the housing market has bottomed out, perhaps it is time for her to get in on the ground level of the recovery as a UHS or even an investor?
She can look into joining the military if her mother can watch her son. It might be a good move for her. Benefits and she can learn a salable skill for when she gets out.
She can look into joining the military I’ve read articles saying wait lists for boot camp are months long, i.e., you enlist but don’t enter the service for half a year or so.
Well, if she wants a better life, she has to get better job skills, and the military is one of the tried-and-true ways for people to pull themselves up. She will have a hard road no matter what she does. If she has a loving relative who can care for her child after she’s called up, she can survive for 6 months until she enters the service.
The military isnt taking alot of people anymore. My retention NCO gave me the Dept of the Army message a couple of weeks ago that the Army is only keeping the best and brightest. Some soldiers who wait to enlist are being told, no, when your time expires, we will let you get out, no reenlistment. They have been cracking down on welfare recruiters, those recruiters who go into the projects and get mothers with 5 kids and such. It doesnt fly anymore. The army is getting like the Air Force…
BAY NEWS 9 — Since 2007, New York City has been shipping some homeless people out of town.
The city is buying one-way tickets for homeless families to move out of state and reunite with relatives who can help them. The program, which is run by the city’s Department of Homeless Services, is called Project Reconnect.
About 100 families have come to Florida since the program started, with most ending up in the Orlando area.
http://tinyurl.com/mj4f5k
Most wondrous.
Didn’t towns and cities do this sort of thing back in the ‘good ole days’? Give their bums a bologna sandwich, 50 cents, and a bus ticket to the next town? And the next town would ship them on (or back) in turn? Everything old is new again.
alpha: Still goin’ on! Best Bologna sandwich I had was in Nashville! Got a solid quarter too!
Smooth! Where’d they ship you?
I can’t remember the next stop, I found a bottle of Schlitz Malt Liquor, “The Bull”, 1/2 full, that I drank while I ate my Baloney sandwich, and then, with my solid quarter as a start, I free loaded enough to get a $4.25 1/5 bottle of generic Vodka for the next stop. I am sure it was in the United States though…
Remember when “the homeless” were called bums or hobos? Wasn’t that long ago.
A great film to see is Preston Sturges’ “Sullivan’s Travels” from 1942. The plot is about a director decides to try life as a hobo prior to making his film “O Brother Where Art Thou” - a title lifted in tribute by the Coen Bros. dedades later.
Preston Sturges made some great films.
I’ll try to get ya here pretty lady (posted below)
SanFranGal, how is your Mom doing?
Got the reply SanFranGirl!
“Didn’t towns and cities do this sort of thing back in the ‘good ole days’? Give their bums a bologna sandwich, 50 cents, and a bus ticket to the next town?”
They tried doing this to John Rambo–minus the bologna sandwich and the toll change–and look how THAT turned out.
[It's true, I saw it on TV.]
I’ll try an post the link.
A superstar real estate agent plots his comeback
How a superstar Miami real estate agent went from boom to bust, and seeks a new boom August 1, 2009,
MIAMI (AP) — It’s the perfect Miami morning at Carlos Justo’s penthouse — warm and bright, with luxury yachts powering through the sparkling blue Atlantic Ocean some 30 stories below.
Justo, a 53-year-old real estate agent, has been awake since 3:30 a.m. but he shows no sign of fatigue. His eyes scan back and forth, from the high rise condos, to the water, and back to the condos.
An assistant, sitting at a glass table with her back to the stunning view, is talking business. She wants to know whether he will receive any commissions or checks anytime soon.
“Right now, we don’t have any money,” Justo says. He continues talking. Fast. Pacing back and forth, he gazes out the window.
“There’s money to be made,” he says, grinning. “I’m creating the team. I’m creating the billion-dollar real estate team.”
In fact, Justo is $20 million in debt. He is five months into a massive bankruptcy filing. The IRS is after him for $6 million.
And yet, he dreams.
A Cuban immigrant who came to the United States with nothing, Justo’s is a rags-to-riches-to-rags story, a peculiarly American dream.
Once, he starred on the TLC network program “Million Dollar Agents.” There was a time he appeared in social columns for brokering real estate deals for one-named celebrities like J-Lo, Shaq, Versace, and two-named notables like Gloria Estefan, Sylvester Stallone, Rosie O’Donnell.
Like so many of our modern titans — think Donald Trump — he inspires both admiration and contempt. Greed, he acknowledges, fueled his rise. Hubris ensured his fall.
Next time, he says, it will all be different.
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/A-superstar-real-estate-agent-apf-2181263375.html?x=0&sec=topStories&pos=7&asset=d71234b06d97e8de7e879dbab7e672e0&ccode=1
What an a$$h0le.
“How a superstar Miami real estate agent went from boom to bust”
So, this guy is a superstar but it took the largest debt expansion in history for him to make it big. I would think a superstar would be the guy that didn’t bust.
“Justo’s is a rags-to-riches-to-rags story”
I like the rags part.
I wish the link would post, this one is full of ‘it’. Next time he becomes a ‘millionaire’ he will spread the ‘love’ he won’t be greedy this go round. The funny part is, he has followers, because he is a genius!
I think Justo needs to plan his escape ,rather than his comeback …owes 6 million to the IRS ?
Maybe there is a slow boat going back to Cuba .
If he has so much integrity, why did he borrow $15K from his aged mother, and $ 80000 something from his elderly aunt? Huh ? Tell me that, Justo ? Jerk.
Maybe this guy needs to start his own religion–or a MLM company. He seems to have the personality for it.
Heck, it worked for L. Ron Hubbard, didn’t it?
And yet, he dreams.
And that’s all he needs. If he can make it, good for him..that’s what this country is all about, without the govt assistance.
Sounds like the denouement of ‘Scarface’. Can’t wait until he introduces his ‘little friend’.
Best movie ever alpha… “Lookatcha you now” (Scarface to Dude’s head through the side window prior to blowing family up). Family saved.
Every time we eat lunch in Tudor Park I think of that seen. That is where they staked out the guy’s car.
Really! I didn’t know that, and I AM impressed! That is cool.
Scarface, Full Metal Jacket, and Caddyshack have the best quotable lines ever!
.
Don’t forget “Animal House”…. “Double-Secret Probation”
Scarface, Full Metal Jacket, and Caddyshack have the best quotable lines ever!
I’d add “True Grit”
“He never played me false ’til he kilt me!”
“Everything happens to me. Now I’m shot by a child.”
Hey, can’t have movies without cartoons!
Betty Boop Red Hot Mama (B & W)
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0IReUUD9XMs
“Repo Man” is one big quotable ramble.
“John Wayne was a f@g.”
Justo’s is a rags-to-riches-to-rags story, a peculiarly American
dreamphenomenon.There.
Morning all!
Nice editing.
Now send me a pet picture.
Now send me a pet picture.
My pets are all dead.
How about a shot of an urn?
TEE HEE !!!
You sound like me lavi!
I Am sorry about your pets though…
“In fact, Justo is $20 million in debt. He is five months into a massive bankruptcy filing. The IRS is after him for $6 million.”
We really need to rethink the Arena and hungry Lions concept.
See? It’s not just lotto players who don’t figure out how to hang on to their new found riches.
Makes the ‘gator dudes look sane:
MIAMI (AP) - Someone is killing the horses of Miami-Dade County. Since January, police say at least 17 horses have been butchered, their carcasses left on roadsides or in stalls or rural pastures.
“We had received anecdotal evidence in the past that there might be some sort of black market activity,” said Andress, commander of department’s Agricultural Patrol Section. “We started hearing more about it after Jan. 11, which was the first case we got this year.”
http://apnews.myway.com/article/20090731/D99PC9UO0.html
Whoops
Makes the
‘gatorshark dudes look saneMiami always finds a way to ‘kick it up a notch”.
alpha: That’s cool, and right on!!
Butchered, as in harvesting the meat? Better check out the nearby “farmers’” markets.
Muggy you shouldn’t have posted this. You will upset our Olygal.
It’s ok, I think she rides toads.
These guys are crazy. Their MO means they are going to get caught, either by law enforcement or by the owners. The owners will shoot first and ask questions later.
It would make more sense to buy a cheap horse trailer and steal the horse quickly. They could trailer it someplace safe to butcher the animal - maybe near a swamp so the gators could then get rid of the evidence.
Why would anyone pay $7-$20 for horsemeat anyway? You can get filet mignon for less, or especially in today’s market lobster.
Whoa, are horse spleens used in Traditional Chinese Medicine™?
Or did this guy hear about the rabbi with the human kidney scam and decide maybe he could get a piece of that–?
So what’s up with the secrecy? Who do the regulators and banks work for?
More U.S. banks put on “probation”: report
(Reuters) - U.S. federal regulators have raised the number of struggling banks which they have essentially put on probation, forcing them to fix their problems to avoid potential failures, the Wall Street Journal said.
Citing data obtained under the Freedom of Information Act requests, the paper said The Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC), along with the Federal Reserve, have issued more memorandums of understanding so far this year than in all of 2008.
At the current rate of at least 285, the Fed, OCC and Federal Deposit Insurance Corp are in line to issue nearly 600 of these secret agreements this year, the paper said, compared with last year when 399 such agreements were issued.
The memorandums — which can force financial institutions to increase their capital, overhaul management or take other major steps — are not bound to be made public by the banks, the Journal said.
The OCC, a division of the Treasury Department that supervises national banks, could not be reached outside regular business hours.
So what’s up with the secrecy? Who do the regulators and banks work for?
Bwahahaha. A little too early to be so comical. No?
Yes! There is always time for a little comedy relief.
They are trying to avoid runs on banks. So this is understandable.
Not sure it is necessary though.
Politicians want voters to be happy. Having such, the politicians stay in office.
Politicians need money to stay in office. Thus, they must keep corporate contributors happy.
When the desires of voters and contributors coincide, everyone is happy - voters, politicians, corporate contributors. When the desires don’t coincide, who loses and who wins?
Money influences votes. Thus it seems that corporate contributors have the edge on the politicians interests. And the regulators work for the politicians.
.
Next… they’ll be on “Double-Secret Probabtion”
Ohhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh……………
Triple-double-secret-probation!
Cash 4 Clunkers: Where you pay full price for a vehicle that depreciates 20% in two seconds, and you get $3,500 or $4, 500 “back”… Listen to this dude…
“Dennis and Marcia Strom hurried into that dealership Friday, fearing the rebates might not last, and filled out paperwork for a new car.
“I might have waited until the truck died,” Dennis Strom said of his 14-year-old Dodge Dakota. “It’s a good vehicle that suits our needs. But it’s not worth $3,500.”"
Does anyone else find this one of the dumbest things they have ever heard?
http://preview.tinyurl.com/llrp8f
http://tinyurl.com/llrp8f
True cost of Cash for Clunkers: $20,000 apiece
Much has been written – both pro and con – about the Cash for Clunkers program that officially launches today. Complexity, limited eligibility and minimal funding are common criticisms. But so far, the chief failing has been overlooked. Edmunds.com has determined that even if Cash for Clunkers reaches its budgeted cap, the program will only help drive about 50,000 incremental new car sales, so each one will cost taxpayers a whopping $20,000.
How is this possible? Edmunds.com’s research shows that typically 200,000 vehicles worth less than $4,500 are traded in for new vehicles every three months. At best the current Cash for Clunkers program will fund 250,000 such transactions in the same time period—a gain of only 50,000 vehicles. Given that this program is budgeted to cost $1,000,000,000, this increase will come at the cost of $20,000 per extra sale.
“The incremental sales will be limited and at a considerable cost. In effect, we are paying consumers to do something most would do anyway,” said Jeremy Anwyl, CEO of Edmunds.com. “So as a stimulus, the program fails. One could make a slightly stronger argument about the environmental benefits, but even there, the program could have been better designed.”
“Really, the best consequence is that many consumers are getting interested in the idea of a new vehicle after hearing about Cash for Clunkers; we have to hope that even if they don’t qualify, they will buy a vehicle anyway,” Anwyl told Edmunds’ AutoObserver.com. “But, how long-lived will that be? Once the program reaches its cap, interest will die down, and sales volume will fall as quickly as it rose. What will motivate shoppers to brave the marketplace in the months following Cash for Clunkers?”
Automakers must step up to continue the momentum. Anwyl points to the current Chrysler incentive program as an example of a creative marketing message that uses the Cash for Clunkers buzz to generate sales and to arm Chrysler dealers with a useful tool when working with Cash for Clunkers “rejects.”
Yep people will spend more money on cars, but will it create jobs.
1. People will have less money to spend on other things after purchasing a new car.
2. Repair shops will see less business.
I’d like to see a brake down on the number of jobs this creates after subtracting the ones it destroys. Then I’d like to see how much it costs per net jobs created.
It won’t even create jobs because there is already over capacity in the auto industry. At best it will save jobs, and that’s a temporary maybe.
So the lost purchasing power will be especially costly.
I’d like to see a brake down…
ha. that’s funny.
Hey,
Lets go into debt just because the govt is giving away money!!!
Why take $4500 on a car with which you are going to buy a NEW one that you are going to owe $20,000 on?
Idiots….
Pencils and paper have gone out of style. The new calculators are owned by the government
and the results are known only by the bureaucrats.
You’re grumpy in the morning before your coffee. Please refrain from posting until you’ve started your second cup.
Thank you for the reminder. Going to get my second cup right now
SanFranGal, how is your Mom doing?
ATE-UP,
Doing much better. Thank you for asking. She will be going for her second round of chemo in a couple of weeks.
Good. Tell her an unknown blogger is thinking about her. I tried to catch you above, so ignore that one. Also, hope you are doing as good as possible with this, as I know it takes a lot out of you too.
“Lets go into debt just because the govt is giving away money!!!”
It’s the same thing with the $8K first time homebuyers credit. Another scheme to rob demand from the future. And are we just creating the next round of auto loan defaults?
I can’t imagine taking on a car payment in this economy, but hey, that’s just me -);
“I can’t imagine taking on a car payment in this economy, but hey, that’s just me…”
I’m glad others are seeing what I am. This is insanity. How many people who are taking advantage of this actually have the CASH to buy the car? I’d guess less than 10%. So, the government is actually pushing more debt- even though debt is what got us into this mess. With this, and the $8000 buyers credit, the government is doing nothing more than inviting people to cut their own throats in the worst possible environment. Disgusting.
“Does anyone else find this one of the dumbest things they have ever heard”?
The American consumer is not the sharpest knife in the drawer(which works out well for debt pushers.) I have given up on thinking that the masses will ever understand simple economics. They have been well trained, though.
The American consumer is not the sharpest knife in the drawer
Even the smart ones are dumb.
When lives are judged only by how much “stuff” they have then this is bound to happen.
True . . .
I looked into it, but the prices on new cars are just prohibitive. I’ll just drive my 7 year old clunker until it falls apart. If a person was already going to buy a new vehicle, then using the program would make sense. But if they’re just jumping on the bandwagon, then no.
If you think about it, this is really no different than the mortgage interest deduction which is always touted as a “benefit.” Pay out oodles and oodles of money for something, the guvmint gives back a few crumbs, you’re a lot farther in debt and yet everyone says you got a great deal.
This is exactly what the C4C program wishes to do.
It doesn’t aim to subsidize carbuyers who are already intent on buying a car.
It aims to goad fence-sitters or those with no current inclination or strong reason to buy, into buying.
Sometimes you guys kill me. I know its crazy but every once in a while I like a new car.
Something that goes way too fast, gets crappy gas millage, and has a kicking stereo. Possibly it might be a rag top.
Of course I plan on working till I drop dead and do have some available income. Unless you all are giving up on owning things like cell phones/computers/internet I’m likely to be employed.
Something that goes way too fast, gets crappy gas millage, and has a kicking stereo. Possibly it might be a rag top.
I don’t believe the car you described would be eligible for the Crash for Flunkers program.
the Crash for Flunkers program.
Also known as The CF Program.
Could qualify for the Dash for Junkers program?
The whole cash-for-clunkers makes no sense except as a way to funnel more money to Detroit. And we’ve been giving Detroit enough taxpayer money lately, thank you very much.
A better program to help out low-income people would be to offer guaranteed trade-in values towards a late-model USED car. That’s more what these people need anyway. Maybe loosen up some loans for used cars. IIUC many people buy new cars rather than used simply because the financing is so much better on new cars.
Michigan would be Carl Levin’s state. I have never heard that man speak and not want to throw up.
Oh but a used car won’t have any bling value!
You expect low-income people to live like grad students?
LOL!
Dennis: exactly right. Good post.
Any truth to the rumors that -
(1) should you participate in the Cash For Clunkers Program,
(2) and use your computer to do so,
(3) that your personal computer and everything connected through it (such as bank accounts, investments, etc.) are the official property of the Federal Government?
Apparently, a lawyer has said exactly that.
“a lawyer”
like the Russian lady lawyer who ringleads the Birther movement?
(3) that your personal computer and everything connected through it (such as bank accounts, investments, etc.) are the official property of the Federal Government?
The propellor on your hat is about to spin right off.
*chuckles*
Thanks,
Leigh
How do you “use your computer” to participate in the program. You have to buy a car to participate and since state laws forbid direct to customer sales by car companies you have to go to a dealer to do it?
Did the lawyer mean that visiting the website to check if your car qualifies for the program means you have given your computer and the contents of your bank account to the government and should expect a bill in the mail shortly?
Or is he just implying that the C4C website downloads malware on your computer?
Sounds like tin foil hat time to me…
“Sounds like tin foil hat time to me…”
It does to me, too, which is why I threw the FYI up there.
Well, he’s no HBBer.
It’s a great program for keeping the mouth-breathers believing in da system. And again, we socialize the losses. Le plus ça change . . .
Good morning, all. I need a favor. I need you to send me pictures of your pets. The cuter the better. Yes, it sounds funny. I am working on a project. They can be your dog, cat, horse, chicken or goat. Please no geo-ducks. Keep those in your private collection. You, or loved ones, can be in the picture you send me. Please make sure you are fully clothed.
Email them to:
nycityboyhbb @ nyc . rr. com
You will not be paid but your picture could end up on the Internet. Let those photos roll in. You will have my undying gratitude. Thank you.
NYCityBoy:
I am sorry I don’t have a pet, except I want a geo-duck and you said N/A.
However, when you get done with your current project, and since I am not computer literate enough to know how, I have a great idea.
Why not let’s put faces on names here? I mean, who doesn’t want to know what each other looks like? A lot of us can’t get to the conventions for one reason or the other, midwest, time, money, whatever. Send pics with names! Ol’ ATE-UP will send his! There’s a start! Then, you do whatever you computer geniuses do, and tell us where to link to see our friends!!
Do you think this is a good idea? Thanks.
I need the pictures to start with. Come on people, help a Boy out! I don’t want to go to Plan B and I always have a Plan B.
CB,
I don’t have any at home for some reason, but I can send one from work Monday if you’re still taking them then.
Blano, that would be great. I appreciate the help.
A handful are on their way. 10 Mb, though. I hope that’s not too much for your capabilities.
Thank you. I haven’t received many but I’m guessing that a lot of people are out enjoying their summer day and don’t have the time or energy. This is really a fun project so I hope people help me out.
I don’t have a pet. But there are all sorts of free photo archives all over the net. I used them for a website I had to design for a class. Some of the photo people will beg you to tell them if you use their pictures, but they are giving up any rights to the pictures by putting them up.
Be prepared to have a lot of pop up ads when you use the sites and I’d update my virus and firewall software first though.
I would rather include my HBB brethren.
If you can tell me how to upload pictures from our fancy digital camera to your address ( yes, I know, quit laughing ), then I’ll be happy to oblige with an image of little white rescue poodle April May ( we picked her up on April Fools Day, 2005 ).
Please send instructions to Oakash1011@aol.com. Thanks, NYC Boy.
Thanks NYCityboy. I’ll work on the pictures.
My dog doesn`t like the paparazzi.
After $182 billion taxpayer rescue, is AIG on the verge of collapse?
You may remember American International Group (AIG). The U.S. government gave it $182 billion of taxpayer money last fall in exchange for a 78 percent stake. Of that money, $165 million went for bonuses to a handful of people in its Financial Products Group (FPG), which sold Credit Default Swaps (CDSs) on which AIG lacked the capital to make good. And $200 million more is slated for those good folks in 2009.
Another $12.9 billion of our taxpayer money went to Goldman Sachs Group (GS) so AIG could pay Goldman 100 cents on the dollar for its CDSs. Hank Paulson wanted to keep the names of Goldman and the other recipients secret — since so many of them were foreign banks, but the information leaked out in March 2009 after Paulson left office.
Now, thanks to some solid reporting in The New York Times, it looks like the rot at AIG is not limited to FPG. While AIG officials have claimed that its problems were isolated to FPG, the reality is that AIG seems to have been running something akin to a shell game of massive proportions. Its shell game version took the form of selling insurance and assigning the resultant risks among its 71 different North American insurance companies.
Thanks to AIG’s regulatory arbitrage — taking advantage of the fact that its 19 state insurance regulators never conduct examinations at the same time — AIG may have been able to shift assets among the companies to fool state regulators. If one its companies did not have enough money set aside as reserves against future claims, AIG could move assets to that reserve-deficient company right before the state insurance examiner moved in. And once that examiner was gone, AIG could in theory shift the extra cash to the next reserves-deficient company.
Want an example? Consider AIG affiliate National Union (NU). AIG indicated to Pennsylvania state insurance investigators that it had $33.7 billion in assets at the end of 2008 — more than enough to protect against $21.9 billion in liabilities. But what the Pennsylvania regulators did not see is that $10.9 billion worth of NU’s assets were investments in other AIG affiliates, which are not publicly traded and whose value is hard to measure. Subtract that and you have only $22.8 billion in assets.
But wait — there’s more. NU had $42 billion more in liabilities that the Pennsylvania regulators missed. How so? NU had obligations to pay claims of other AIG insurance affiliates — the biggest of which was $23.1 billion that it owed AIG affiliate American Home (AH). NU owed another $19 billion to several other AIG afiiliates.
Meanwhile, AH had crushing obligations of its own. While the New York state regulators thought it had $26.3 billion in assets to a mere $19.9 billion in liabilities, the reality was far more dire. How so? AH was on the hook for an additional $120.7 billion in guarantees to 16 other AIG affiliates. Thus AH’s liabilities really exceeded its assets by $114 billion.
(From P. Cohan)
We really have AIG on our faces over this one. Don’t we?
Pa-dumm. CHING!
A One-Question Pop Quiz.
How many AIG executives will serve prison time for this shell game, which is a nice name for fraud? Actually, let’s make it easier. How many AIG executives will be indicted for this fraud?
A) 10 or more
B) 7 to 9
C) 4 to 6
D) 1 to 3
E) Zero
How many AIG executives will walk way from all this much, much wealthier than before?
Answer - all of them.
That’s one of the tumors that needs to be addressed.
Zero
They will probably let AIG fail now that the Goldman Sachs and JPM’s of the world have cashed out, leaving only the small to medium size companies, universities, pension funds ect to feel the full effect of their failure.
While I am sure there are still some issues with the financial products stuff, this article is about problems with their real insurance book. They could fulfill state regulatory requirements by shifting assets around as long as they only got audited by one state at a time. If all the states want to confirm that AIG is in compliance at once, they can’t do it.
Kind of like the movie set up of a guy with two different families in different cities who can keep up the charade by pretending to have jobs that require a lot of buisness travel in both places.
Eventually, you get caught.
I actually knew a girl whose husband had a whole ‘nother family around the corner, and she never knew it. She thought he was “working” all that time. Very sad.
Oh joy today I go Apartment hunting in orange county. Soon to join the ranks of all the bitter renters here…
Shame I cant buy a house cause from what I see the powers that be will do everything, in their power, to bring back the party.
Good luck max!
We take possession of the keys to our new rental in Topanga Canyon today!
I am stoked
No more Hot-as-Hades Valley summers for me! No more 40-mile commutes for the Husband!
Topanga Canyon
What a great name for a porn star.
Why do you think THAT is good name? I mean, it begs certain repulsive anatomical imagery, doesn’t it???
Strap a 2×4 to your @$$.
max: looks that way, doesn’t it? Good luck with the hunting!
We’re candidates for the hook of new auto debt in the mind of the bureaucrats. 14 y. o. Volvo with 300,000 miles. No auto note in 10 years, car still runs good, and we’re not stupid.
This fiasco will also bring $ to the states (sales tax and registration), auto insurance, and auto parts (customizing).
We’re amazed that people are so foolish too.
“This fiasco will also bring $ to the states (sales tax and registration), auto insurance, and auto parts (customizing).”
It will bring money to the present that would have been spent in the future. We are fine as long as the future never gets here. You would think these dip$hits would have learned about robbing demand from the future. No such luck. Rock on, Barney and the Gang.
Yeah, NYCityBoy, good point.
You would think these dip$hits would have learned about robbing demand from the future.
But, bbbb, but doesnt demand keep going UP with values on houses????
Soo basically its a shame? What about helping the environment? You know that green economy
ICE autos don’t really have a place in the green economy or the future for that matter.
Right, any policy that spurs unnecessary consumption is not “green”. What this is, is a ploy to pay off/save a certain voting bloc.
Pricilla, my 96 Camry I bought @ 40K, has 322K. She has a micro-head gasket leak, because I got it hot once with an after-market thermostat. (Never put American Parts in a Toyota, they will get sick, and throw up).
Since I don’t have the tools/time, or probably knowledge anymore, have to take her no where else than a Toyota dealer. Bend over, for 1,600.00.
However, I am thinking about doing it. The car uses Zero Oil and the tranny shifts like Liberace’s piano. Well maintained, except for one mistake.
Why get rid of it? Paper and taxes will be 500.00. Plus, you can’t find a good used vehicle with maintenance reacords, (like mine anyway) and I am not buying some idiots problems of not changing oil/tranny fluid, and having it throw up on me in 25K.
“Pricilla, my 96 Camry”
OK, I’ll confess. I named my Volvo “Vixen”, and I’ve blown a head gasket once too. All in all, I’ve been great with maintenance, so I’ll nurse her a while longer. So far the $4K of non preventive repairs has been a bargin. Her turning radius is amazing.
It’s nice to know to know others don’t like debt either. Toys and Honda are great cars. The Japanese take pride in their products. When Ford bought Volvo, it was the beginning of the end.
Pricilla says: “Hi Vixen!”
Hey wipe, I run high mileage synthetic Mobil 1 in Pricilla. What does Vixen drink?
Ate Up-
10-30 or 10-40. I asked the mechanic about synthetic and he didn’t like the idea. What’s your experience?
When I saw the price of your future head casket repair, I didn’t feel so riped off. All cars are expensive to repair, I guess.
I am off to the subway for a consulting job today. I’ll read up later. Have a nice day everyone.
Wipe, been good so far, about 100K. Also, I think it has prolonged the head. I change every 5K. Never down a drop. (Knock on Aluminum)…
and I’ve blown a head gasket once too
Giggity!
When Ford bought Volvo, it was the beginning of the end.
Old perceptions are hard to break.
“DETROIT — Jaguar and Buick tied for the top ranking in an influential vehicle-dependability study, supplanting Toyota Motor Corp.’s Lexus brand, which had held or tied for the No. 1 spot 14 years in a row.”
Wall Street Journal
(The last time I mentioned this, someone noted that Tata owns Jaguar now, but I’m fairly sure it was Ford vehicles which made this survey.)
Oh, and by the way, if Pricilla poops out, there is always Shorty.
WOW ATE, my 96 Ford escort wagon has a whopping 58K miles…we don’t drive much in the Beeg Apple
Maybe in 10 years i’ll buy a car.
——————————–
my 96 Camry I bought @ 40K, has 322K.
Wow, that’s low mileage dj. I guess courthouse to courthouse says most of my mileage.
“WOW ATE, my 96 Ford escort wagon has a whopping 58K miles…we don’t drive much in the Beeg Apple”
“my 96 Camry I bought @ 40K, has 322K.”
Hey, let’s hear it for the ‘96ers.
‘96 Ford Explorer, 152k
Hip Hip Hurray!!!! “The 96′ers Club”.!!!!
96 Camry is not eligble for cash for clunkers program anyway. Neither is 95 Camry which I have. I chose mine for good gas mileage, among other things, LOL.
This is one more example of how it does not pay to be responsible and prudent in this country. Responsible ones always get screwed one way or another.
My ‘97 Taurus doesn’t qualify either. The 8 cylinder version does just barely, but I have a 6 cylinder.
“the tranny shifts like Liberace”
C’mon man, my son reads this blog!
LOL!!!
could have said Little Richards tranny named tutti frutti
I am not buying some idiots problems of not changing oil/tranny fluid
Although I might be flamed for it, I prefer to buy new cars for this reason. The caveat is that I buy cars with an established record for reliability, pay cash, don’t buy blingmobiles, and keep the car for well over a decade. I also do all my own work on the car. It’s not exactly rocket science. Cars with OBD-II systems are basically self-diagnosing these days, and you can buy a scanner for $100.
I, too, don’t mind buying new. That depreciation when you drive it off the lot is the price you pay for several years of headache free motoring. It’s just a matter of how much of a premium you put on your time. I put a high premium on my free time. I’m not much of a do-it-yourself person. I have never had a problem with a new car within the first 4 years. That was nice piece of mind.
That is a good point too, and if you keep the car that long and know a little, I agree with it 100%. There is a story behind me and multiple new cars. Let’s leave it that. However, I agree with your reasoning as well as I think it is better for me, to try keeping/maintaining a good used vehicle.
I’m driving a ‘96 Sube with 125k on it. A couple years ago I blew 1200 on it to fix the clutch and an oil leak, but that’s still cheaper than a new car. And it has utility beyond its Blue Book value. I don’t know how to quantify that, unless to say that’s still not 500/month car payment + everything else just to drive around in a new rig. And I usually know what needs to be done next on it.
In my skewed viewpoint, my fellow middle aged gals pumping their frail egos up with the new SUVs are the losers & I’m the winner. So there.
You Go, In Montana!!!
NYCityBoy-
Good point.
Cash for Clunkers is:
A) A new reality TV show in which contestants try to produce the worst songs possible
B) Another wasteful government program that robs new car purchase demand from the future
C) A made up name that could never become a serious anything
D) A nickname for the United States congress
(D)
(E) The latest h00ker ring run by Desperate Housewives who need to pay their mortgage.
TEE HEE !!!
Does this sort of thing really happen, or is it just some kind of Desperate Housewives fantasy you cooked up?
Prof B. I wanna know too! Any phone numbers, Faster?
My inquiry was strictly academic :-).
Of course it is. Being a good mathematician you just want to go over the Algorithm Method with them.
C’mon, keep Al Gore out of this.
LMAO!!!!
C’mon, keep Al Gore out of this.
You mean to say that the calling the porky housewives as Clunkers is more than an Incovenient Truth?
Say it ain’t so!
“You mean to say that the calling the porky housewives as Clunkers is more than an Incovenient Truth?”
Either way, yer looking at Tons O’ Fun!!!
Particularly when you throw a Snickers bar across the room full of porkies and yell, “Fetch!”
The desperate housewives aren’t porky at all. There are lots of “clunkers” of both genders if you really want to look at it that way. — Maybe ‘cash for clunkers’ is money for those guys no one will date, ‘Cash for clunkers’ for all those desperate porky bachelors or husbands . . . what an inconvenient truth.
There is absolutely no statistical question about whether on average men are richer or women. Whatever the historical reasons for that, the facts are pretty much clear on the ground.
In just about every country in the world.
Those that hold the coin make the rules. It may be unfair but it’s real.
Unless those porky-pork-porkington housewives have real tradeable skills in a global economy, it matters not if there are a zillion porky males; it simply matters that they are both porky and unemployable so where’s the next pork chop on a plate coming from?
Priceless.
Porky Pork, Porkington, Pork Choppin’, Pork Chaplin’ Porkin’, Pork Porks!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! (chasin’ that Snickers Bar)
Just for the record, before anyone comes up with the “sour grapes” accusation that I lie to the porktastic-pork-porkington category, I am both lean and mean.
PS :- I love prosciutto and Iberico ham, etc.
Perhaps men a paid more because they aren’t distracted by trivial things like bearing and raising children?
E) The name of some fetish website….
E) Welfare payments for unwed mothers.
E) Great name for a rock band.
Dave Barry loves rock band names!
Leigh
I was in a rock band way back when.
I argued for “Free Beer”–a great crowd draw. [Didn't fly.]
Imagine the reaction if we were on the marquee with the other two great bands, “No Cover” and “Bikers Welcome”.
It could happen . . . .
Free beer and a shot for you
No cover
Bikers welcomed too
Cash for junker
Free beer and a shot for you!
Hi. Not that I would would ever buy again and at least not in Calif. But I often check San Fran. Yesterday putting my search in Realtor.com. for zip code 94109 for $900K (definately counldd not and would not buy at THAT price
) there were 135 listings. I would not bet my life, but I swear when I last looked about a week ago there were about 100 listings. Quite a jump.
I wonder if there are 35 jobs that pay $900,000 of supporting job wages? Opps…my bad….The U.S. is losing jobs…..
Correction my search is for prices up to 900k
Perhaps I could interest you in a beautiful San Diego home? This is the median (listing) price single family home currently on the MLS (there are 5,039 homes, and this one is rank 2,520 = (5,039+1)/2 in the price order). Built in 1945, it is a lovely 1,634 square foot 3 bedroom, 3 bath home priced to sell at $789,000 (Est. Monthly Payment: $5,249). The dollar per square foot price of $477 is over twice the current value which Radar Logic reports for San Diego.
If this home does not quite suite your tastes, there are 199 other homes on the MLS listed on the range from $750,000 - $799,000 from which to choose.
Here is the description and some comps (from ZipRealty dot com):
4014 NORTH HEMPSTEAD CIRCLE, SD - Normal Heights, CA 92116**
Neighborhood: Kensington School District: SAN DIEGO CITY UNIFIED
Beds: 3
Type: SFR
Sq. Ft.: 1,634
Lot Size: N/A
MLS #: 090013405
Baths: 3/0
Built: 1945
$/Sq.Ft.: $477
List Date: 03/03/09
On Market: 151 days
Description
Subject to cancellation of current escrow. Location! On a quiet street in the north end of kensington, this traditional 3br has a new spacious master suite with custom bath! Lr has fireplace, hardwoods, dining area and an open lr all with views to the canyon and beyond! Large entertaining patio with lower level grassy areas and a storage room under the mbr.
Comparable sales (past three months)
Number of SFR sales: 97 or so (based on the ZipRealty dot com list)
Averages
Beds/baths: 2.7/1.6
Square feet: 1,119
Year built: 1962
Sale price: $195,655
Price/sq ft: $175
Does anyone else perceive a disconnect here? I suppose a canyon view is worth something, but is it really worth an extra $500,000+ compared to the comps?
Like I keep sayin’ ( bloggin ‘ ), you can pick up this same sh-t in Michigan for $ 89,900 or less. Yips. Eventually people will catch on.
Thanks for the San Diego offer, but I like RENTING no matter the location.
In San Diego, if you can see farther than 30ft from your window, it’s considered a “view”, doesn’t matter what exactly you see. Once I went to look at a place advertised with a view expecting to see either ocean and cityscape, instead there were a few dirt mounds with some trees behind them. I told the lady I was interested in the unit with the view, she looked at me puzzled and explained that was a landscape view since it wasn’t directly facing another unit. LMFAO. Several times later when I visit my relatives in the midwest in their ~$100K houses, I say “nice view” when I look out and see trees, they look at me like I’m nuts, I tell them the view alone would add $100-200K to their housing value if it was in California.
“China Manufacturing Expands a Fifth Month, PMI Shows (Update3)”
from Bloomberg.
URL:
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aJvq5b9yhr5w
Excerpt:
““While the recovery in manufacturing attests to the overall effectiveness of China’s stimulus, some uncertainties remain,” said Jing Ulrich, Hong Kong-based chairwoman of China equities at JPMorgan Chase & Co. She cited a government warning last month that “blind investment” is adding to overcapacity in some industries. ”
… and that is the danger. I keep hearing that the Chinese are engineering an unsustainable recovery that depends upon building woefully substandard housing, supporting excess manufacturing capacity, looming inflation. BTW, there are two Chinas: 300 Million are, or were, making significant economic progress mostly in southern and southeastern China, AND 900 Million are still hand to mouth and dirt poor.
My take on this? Bad housing is better than what they had. There should be plenty of spare room for growth with 900 Million people. They need 8% or they are having problems with political and civil violence.
There are also very serious demographic problems that are only getting worse. There are too many young men without prospect of marrying because there are no young women for them. These young women were never born. This is cause extreme civil unrest or war. Not good at all.
In addition to the male-female ratio imbalance, there are more and more older Chinese citizens. They are graying at an alarming rate with no Social Security.
China is not a representative government. There is repression and lawlessness by the government itself. The US has done some things that we are not proud of, but never like China. They are now arresting and detaining company executives of foreign companies so deals beneficial to the gov’t are forced through. This is not “rule of law.”
My money is on India for the moment. They know what a vote means, what law means, what a contract negotiation is, and without the demographic issues.
Roidy
They know what a vote means, what law means, what a contract negotiation is, and without the demographic issues.
In that case, you have quite clearly never set foot either inside India or inside an Indian courthouse.
They make Jarndyce v. Jarndyce look like a conservative estimate.
No, India is not America. You are right, and I understand this. What I am saying is that the contract law is far more stable than China. I mean we are still dealing with very backward countries.
Roidy
In the era of bailouts, too-big-to-fail, forced loan modifications and TARP, let’s not be too sure about American contract law
Law is one thing, and enforcement quite another.
India has more terrorist activity in a given month than most people realize. It has major problem with muslims who feel the economic progress has passed them by. They also have caste problems within Hindu population.
Are you smoking something? If so, pass it over here. Don’t bogart it!
They have no more crime/terrorism of this on a per capita basis than the US.
And the caste problems, while significant, are completely analogous to the Let’s-See-What-The-DingDong-Baby-Jeebus-Book says about every issue.
They have serious issues but at least focus on the correct ones. Jeebus!!!
I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again. “I like your anger.”
Links to terrorist attacks last 18 months, notice I didn’t post the Mumbai attacks.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/asia/india/2462040/India-bomb-blasts-kill-29-and-raise-threat-of-inter-religious-violence.html
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/asia/india/1952952/India-bomb-blasts-80-killed-in-Jaipur.html
http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2009/04/06/world/main4922039.shtml
http://www.cnn.com/2008/WORLD/asiapcf/10/30/india.explosions/index.html
I find the illetrate crowd believe things are better in India thats why jibs are outsourced to India.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/asia/india/2462040/India-bomb-blasts-kill-29-and-raise-threat-of-inter-religious-violence.html
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/asia/india/1952952/India-bomb-blasts-80-killed-in-Jaipur.html
http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2009/04/06/world/main4922039.shtml
http://www.cnn.com/2008/WORLD/asiapcf/10/30/india.explosions/index.html
Go google Indian terrorist attacks. This list does not include Mumbai attacks
Look at this google search for Indian terrorist activity:
http://www.google.com/search?hl=en&safe=off&num=100&newwindow=1&q=indian+terrorist+attacks+bomb+blasts&aq=f&oq=&aqi=
I tried to post individual links but didn’t post.
do a google search for india bomb blasts. I tried posting link but doesn’t seem to show up.
Just divide by 1 billion. It’s called long division, sweetheart!
You might have learnt it if you had had a REAL education.
Boy…. this is gonna go over like a turd in a punchbowl…
FPSS, Based on conversations I have with my counterparts in the office, most of whom are from mid-east countries, Rentor is correct.
FPSS, it is good to “see” you. Hope your summer is going well. Missed your scratch and bite. PS - I do believe your hypothesis about the difference in scale between inflationary vs. deflationary forces is being borne out.
Great summer albeit the wettest one on record.
Been MIA because I’ve been spending it doing fun stuff like hunting for mushrooms. Yep, it’s totally possible within the confines of the city if you know where to look. Last week, I found almost 4-5 lbs of golden chanterelles, and I cooked them and ate them all (with friends.)
Yes, we have no shame!
“I keep hearing that the Chinese are engineering an unsustainable recovery…”
If I had to choose between the US and China as a place to survive an unsustainable recovery, I would choose the US hands down. The demographic dislocation which might occur when China’s bubble finally blows up is frightening to contemplate.
Frightening is an understatement. China is undergoing a societal opening that may be too far along to either control or reverse. They have civil unrest among various groups and regions. We keep hearing about this, and one wonders what we don’t know about.
Now, what about terrorism. I hear nothing about that occurring in China. No news is good news. Right? RIGHT?
Yes, of course.
Roidy
I’m surprised china hasn’t volunteered to take over Afghanastan.
I guess they are next in line, after the Soviets and the US have learned their lessons.
LOL
…after the Brits, Soviets and the US…
But seriously, it has neither oil/gas nor access to the sea, nor does it open up any new routes that China doesn’t already have (via good friend Pakistan), so I think it has little value for them.
It is where empires go to die, as the saying goes.
IIRC Alexander the Great died there.
And then they salted him, wrapped him in linen and his army took him overland to Alexandria in Egypt for burial.
So, I’d say its probably an Empire-K!ller.
“Alexander the Great died there.”
Awesome! You would think at least a few wise men in later empires would have read their history and warned the PTB of the pitfalls of getting mired in Afghanistan, but apparently this is not so.
Emerging Threats
Commentary: Flipping enemies
By ARNAUD DE BORCHGRAVE,
UPI Editor at Large
Published: July 30, 2009 at 9:19 AM
WASHINGTON, July 30 (UPI) — Geopolitical trendies ran a new one up the international flagpole to see if anyone saluted. It claimed to be the magic formula on “How to Win in Afghanistan.”
…
All Afghans, uneducated as most of them are, have one incontrovertible historical fact engraved in their DNA: They have defeated every empire that occupied Afghan land, from Alexander the Great to Genghis Khan’s Mongol hordes to the Persian Empire, India’s Mughal Empire, to the British, Russian and American empires. On Jan. 13, 1842, a British army doctor reached a British sentry post at Jalalabad, the sole survivor of a 16,000-strong Anglo-Indian expeditionary force, allowed to escape to tell the world the story of a massacre strewn along the 95-mile road from Kabul. During the decadelong Soviet occupation of the 1980s, 14,500 Soviet troops were killed and 54,000 seriously wounded.
…
@Prof Bear…
The plan is to create inflation. Currently that is happening but prices are still falling.
So, the money is going to stocks/business investment. Not sure how much goes overseas. Banking system has collapsed. Just not sure at what point the government looks at AIG/Tarp 3 and withdraws support. At some point I think they realize they would cause a dollar collapse. Looking at all this mess, believe they will eventually realize the deflation is the solution.
The flip side of the high leverage means there isn’t that much money to FDIC insure and bailing out depositors isn’t as inflationary as give aways like tarp. Treasury will try to balance collapse of debt with creation of money.
And yes, I’m holding gold in case things get too stupid and I have retreat points in a country farm if there is anarchy.
Comment by Professor Bear
2009-07-31 19:09:48
But don’t you think the Fed (and other Working Group parties) just *has* to do all it can to restart inflation in California home prices, denying the policy or playing mum all along the way? How else can they avoid having the banking system collapse due to the unbearable collective weight of California property foreclosures?
“The plan is to create inflation.”
Any chance a Congressional audit would explore this?
“And yes, I’m holding gold in case things get too stupid and I have retreat points in a country farm if there is anarchy.”
Wow! We have a poster who truly understands diversification. I am impressed, James.
I have yet to have anyone explain this to me (I’m being serious): aside from being a very dense metal that could crack a skull, what does gold get you in a complete collapse? If dollars are worthless, do you trade an ingot for a potato?
I still say the most valuable commodity in collapse is to be a known, respected member of a community that can, at the very least, provide food and reasonable cap crime.
I don’t need the precious, fiatscos, et al., because if the chit hits the fan in this way, I have 3 communities that I can plug into.
“and reasonable cap crime.”
and a reasonable cap on crime
“…what does gold get you in a complete collapse?”
Universally liquid purchasing power*.
“If dollars are worthless, do you trade an ingot for a potato?”
More than a potato, presumably.
*Unless the PTB somehow interfere.
Ciggies, man, ciggies. And hard liquor, in small bottles.
There’s a lot to be learned from the homeless.
Ammo is good too. One .30-06 round will get you a deer, which can feed your family for a week. Or longer if refrigeration is still available.
The problem with gold is in some respects that it’s TOO valuable. It’s bad for small-denomination transactions. What are you going to do to buy dinner with an ingot - get out your pocketknife and shave off a sliver?
Hummm…this got me thinking that maybe people should lay in a few 50 lb bags of salt, in order to preserve meat if refrigeration isn’t available. Salt was once used as money…..
I’ve already surrounded my house with land mines, and started a colony of guinea pigs for food and companionship (not in that order). Mailman hates the mines.
Seriously, the potatos I grew this year could feed me and be used for barter. Sack of taters for your gold coin.
I’m a firm believer you could live a healthy, normal, athletic life span eating taters only. In fact, I had a baked tater for breakfast today!
Silver would be a better barter metal than gold. As far as what to do with your [insert dead game animal here] the old trappers used to take the backstrap and other “best” parts and dry them into jerky. You’re good to go as long as you have water. Also, dehydrating preserves more nutrients than canning or freezing.
Taters alone will keep you full, but not nourished, and you’ll soon become a walking zombie. You need a balanced protein source: rice & beans, eggs, taters & beans, meat, fish.
unless you want to become a walking zombie
(two sacks of taters for that silver coin)
“I have 3 communities that I can plug into.”
Church communities with worldwide representation would have a huge insurance value in the event of financial collapse.
I put a much lower probability on the ‘complete collapse’ scenario versus a ‘higher than expected inflation’ scenario over the next two decades.
I like the scenario where idiots lose their RE empires and have to rent and wait for the bus instead of cutting me off in traffic in their HELOC-mobiles (Beemer, Monster Truck, Hummer, etc) and don’t sit near me in restaurants raving about their financial acuity and how they’re going to flip condos in “Cally”.
I had a landlord when I first moved here tell me that he might sell my rental to me for more than he paid for it. I told him I might wait for prices to collapse and buy it from him for less.
As it turned out, I moved out of there in June of ‘06. I looked up the property recently on the county website - that house and the two houses going east on the block are all in foreclosure.
Life is good.
“…in a complete collapse?”
You are an educator, so I am guessing you may have some understanding of subjective probability?
So what probability do you subjectively place on the ‘complete collapse’ scenario which drives you (and Alad!nsane before you) to wring your hands? Is it 1 in 1000? Or 1 in 1 million? Or more like 1 in 1 billion?
I put a much lower probability on the ‘complete collapse’ scenario versus a ‘higher than expected inflation’ scenario over the next two decades. Under the latter state of the world, gold would do ‘better than expected’ relative to other asset classes. Buy gold now, or get priced out forever
.
I understand what you’re saying, PB.
My personal opinion is that we will not have a total collapse. My second *belief is still in camp Combo/FPSS — deflation. I agree that inflation could be “higher than expected;” however, massive housing deflation is already underway. I think gold around @1k is/was peak.
I am already scoping places in the ‘burbs of Rochester, and I am pleasantly surprised that the “nice” ‘burbs are already in my range, i some cases we may even be able to pull it off with only one income.
So, bread can be $10 a loaf, as long as my house is $50k.
And what I am saying is, I’d rather ‘hold’ a cheap house than be a globetrotter with universally liquid purchasing power in my pants.
Btw, purchasing power in my pants = P-PIMP!
Good point Muggy. Puts back the “real” in real estate.
PB,
The probability of a complete collapse is probably larger than you might think.
It’s almost a certainty that Moslem terrorists will get the bomb in the next few decades. I’m sure when they get a stockpile of a half-dozen of them they will nuke NY, LA, Miami, SF, and other “sinful” coastal cities. Maybe Norfolk and SD if they consider wiping out our navy as a goal.
It’s almost a certainty that Moslem terrorists will get the bomb in the next few decades.
We can only hope that advanced, ultra-sensitive detection technology will make it impossible for anyone anywhere to transport fissionable material without being noticed.
Otherwise, that sentence scares the crap out of me.
God, I hate religion.
Lavi,
Such hope placed in these sensors presume the terrorists will try to “clear customs” with their bombs.
More likely they could bring bombs into coastal cities’ ports in a small (say 40 ft.) sailing yacht, and detonate them before ever presenting themselves for customs inspection. It should be all too obvious that these guys aren’t adverse to suicide missions. Our coastal cities tend to be precisely the liberal-sinful bastions that drive these guys crazy.
Have a nice day.
More likely they could bring bombs into coastal cities’ ports in a small (say 40 ft.) sailing yacht,
The James Creek Marina in Washington DC is 1.78 miles from Capitol Hill. I hope the US Coast Guard checks all those little boats going from Chesapeake Bay to DC.
O.k., but back to my original point: suppose the USA becomes a cloud of radioactive dust, you’ll be wondering if you chose gold/cash correctly?
what does gold get you in a complete collapse?
I was wondering the same thing all through the alad era. Gold isn’t very divisible, is it? Don’t you need special equipment for assaying and remelting and alloying it and that kind of stuff?
The thing I don’t get is, don’t the PTB always have a motive to reflate housing prices during a housing bust? For two recent examples, consider the Japanese economy from 1989-2009, or the California economy from 1989-2005. In both cases, home prices started falling and continued to fall for a protracted period of time, despite the obvious (and literal) “collateral damage” to lenders.
So why doesn’t the Fed just wave its magic wand (or the financial equivalent thereof) and make real estate start going back up again? Is it a problem of collective pessimism which is holding them back? What gives?
I think the goal of the FED is to slow the rate of deflation and keep people concerned that inflation is right around the corner so we all don’t abandon the hyperconsumer/investor ship. I just see no realistic way that they can create inflation without creating jobs and rising incomes. If they just pump money to the elite/investment class, they will run up commodity prices, which will siphon more money from the middle class and crush demand for manufactured goods. We’ve got a hyperinflated surgical glove that could blow at any minute. They can squeeze a little air out of one finger or another but that just increases the pressure in the other parts of the glove. Squeeze too hard or try to squeeze all the fingers at once and boom. They are hoping that they can untie the knot at the base and let a little air out without the glove shooting out of their hands with a complete and massive deflationary release of air.
“If they just pump money to the elite/investment class, they will run up commodity prices, which will siphon more money from the middle class and crush demand for manufactured goods.”
Isn’t that a fairly accurate description of what has recently occurred, or am I missing something important?
Volcker finally realized we had to take the pain in the early 80’s, raise interest rates, and force a recession in order to get the economy back on an even keel.
The cuter the Fed and Treasury try to be, the more “novel” their approaches to try and prop up the debt levels, real estate prices and keep lending alive, all next to a giant black hole of bad debt, the longer recovery will take, and more lasting damage it will cause.
It’s not just that the politicians are trying to create a slow leak. Their policies are to try and keep the bubble alive. Politicians want voters to be happy. The majority of voters want the credit bubble back (do they really though? I detected a sense of malaise back in 05-06 which led to the sweeping out of Republicans. Pundits said it was due to Iraq, but seriously, what exposure do most people have to Iraq? None. I think it was the heavy, unserviceable debt load people had taken, which was causing the discontent).
The politicians are also trying to keep the corporations happy. These are the ones who give them money, and allow the politicians to influence voters into voting for them. When push comes to shove, the politicians will put the interest of their contributors over the interests of the voters due to this dynamic.
“Welcome to the bottom: Housing begins slow rebound
It was — note the past tense — the worst housing recession anyone but survivors of the Great Depression can remember.”
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20090801/ap_on_bi_ge/us_housing_mid_year_outlook
“By every measure, except foreclosures, the housing market has stabilized and many areas are recovering, according to a spate of data released in the past two weeks.”
Financial press writers are getting irrationally exuberant over the government-engineered blip in home prices, while ignoring the foreclosure and ARM reset tsunami elephants still hidden under the rug.
But bottom-callers will call bottoms — that’s what they do for a living. And they are apparently unashamed to be wrong again and again.
Another issue the housing market bottom callers choose to ignore: The persistent drag of lagging high unemployment at the back end of a recession.
Since unemployment rates have not even topped out yet, I am pretty sure this current wave of confidence that the housing market has bottomed out will prove unfounded, but conveniently forgotten by MSM financial journalists when they are calling for a near-term housing market bottom again this time next summer.
Friday, July 31, 2009, 8:53am PDT
41 U.S. cities have double-digit unemployment
Sacramento Business Journal
…
Forty-one of the nation’s 100 major labor markets are saddled with double-digit unemployment rates, according to newly released figures from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.
The Sacramento region’s unemployment of 11.6 percent, while harsh, was better than other California markets, like Fresno (15.2 percent), Bakersfield (14.7 percent), Riverside (13.7 percent) and San Jose (11.8 percent).
A year ago, all 100 markets had only single-digit unemployment.
Ninety-eight of the nation’s 100 largest labor markets lost jobs between the midpoints of 2008 and 2009, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
The biggest losses occurred in the nation’s three largest markets — New York City, Los Angeles and Chicago — each of which lost in excess of 200,000 jobs.
The Los Angeles area suffered the biggest reversal, with a one-year loss of 259,100 jobs. New York City lost 226,900 jobs in the same period, and Chicago lost 207,600.
Three other markets lost between 100,000 and 200,000 jobs during the past year. They are Detroit, Phoenix and Atlanta.
The only exceptions to the overall decline were Baton Rouge, La., which picked up 500 jobs between mid-2008 and mid-2009, and McAllen-Edinburg, Texas, which added 300 jobs.
The 100 major labor markets, taken as a group, lost 3.46 million jobs over the 12-month span.
…
So other than the monster foreclosure rate and the monster unemployment rate, the economy is up and running again! That was quite a recession, wasn’t it?
while ignoring the foreclosure and ARM reset tsunami elephants still hidden under the rug.
A blind person can’t see a bump under a rug, no matter how big the elephant.
The “Bottom is in” headlines are sure to bloody a few more hands. Americans will get exactly what they deserve.
The boldness of this claim is breathtaking. But the timing is curious.
We are now heading into the naturally slower time of year, and even during a recovery, sales will slow into the fall - spoiling the little M-O-M game the MSM has been playing recently.
Wouldn’t it have made more sense to call bottom next January - and allow the spring’s M-O-M increases to work their magic?
There is also a problem going forward due to the government engineered spike, which is that it has likely robbed the next few months of some of the demand which otherwise might have been in the market. This is one of the problems with bubbles (even if they are only bubblets).
It hasn’t been in the Statesman or Austin downtown condos website yet, but signs on this condo building announce the upcoming auction of 10 units. They are in the heart of the auto related business part of S. Lamar, no pool / common areas, the tiniest touch of landscaped ground by the entry driveway. The site consists of two rows of condos stacked on top of garages with a driveway between the rows - just wide enough for a car to turn into the garages and for a fire truck to pull in and back out.
Any views to either side would have a lot of dreck in the foreground.
Fugly!
http://austin-condos.newcondosonline.com/austin-condos/the-sage-/
‘auto related business part of S. Lamar… views to either side would have a lot of dreck in the foreground’
Auto related is being polite, I suppose. If the housing bubble caused condos to be built on S Lamar, Austin will come tumbling down. And auctions are how these markets always start to crumble. BTW, do you remember the South Austin Liberation Army, and the annual north/south tug of war across Town Lake? Those were the good old days, before Austin got ruined, IMO.
Welcome to the bottom: Housing begins slow rebound
These guys claim the worst is over. (I’m trying not to laugh)
Greetings from Bulgaria. Sounds like all is getting better in US. We in Bulgaria are afraid might miss the bottom too. I think you missed your bottom now.
Shakalaka
Come on over to the U.S. and I will show you the only bottom you are going to see. You will have to forgive me. It has a crack in it.
C’mon, man! Have a heart. We haven’t had a troll in weeks.
Why you gotta be all negative all the time even about the trolls when we can have some real fun?
I am so glad to see you posting again. Your comments make me laugh.
BTW great blog yesterday. Thank you for the interview.
Hey Olygal–
Okay, so I haven’t gotten an email back from you yet and there’s a chance, you know, that I mistyped or that hotmail sucks or whatever, so I wanted to let you know I will be coming in on train 500, which is supposed to arrive at 10:18, which is coincidently when bus 64 to Olympia is supposed to depart :-P, so hurray for that.
I hate putting personal info out like this, but it’s a little late now for someone who really can’t stand me to do anything about it. I hope. (I’m a small person. I just have a big mouth.)
We’re moving into a new house! No, we didn’t buy, but did sign a lease to rent a very nice place on the cheap. The owner knows he can’t sell it, so plans to rent it out for a few years “until the market comes back.” Since he purchased with cash, we don’t have to worry about a foreclosure, though he might start to get smart in the next year and put it on the market.
Well I snagged a 12% rent decrease for my Phoenix apartment. I am happy for the price cut but I think I could have done better, considering I got a 20% rent decrease in Los Angeles within 2 miles of ocean.
My monthly rent will be $70 more than what I paid in the year 2000 for a lesser apartment. My current apartment has what my apartment back then had, but with large washer and dryer included and gated community.
So I should be happy.
My total rent reduction on two apartments is $436! Not a bad chunk of change, eh?
Apparently Bill never received the memo stating how awful deflation is.
Somewhere between what Obama and economists are saying lies the truth about the future remaining duration of the recession.
Financial Times
Obama says many months before US exits recession
WASHINGTON, Aug 1 - President Barack Obama warned on Saturday it would take ”many more months” for the United States to get out of recession even after GDP figures showed the economy shrank only modestly in the second quarter.
Mr Obama, who has defended his administration’s economic policies vigorously in recent weeks in the face of worsening unemployment numbers, said jobless figures next week would still show that too many Americans were losing work.
”It will take many more months to fully dig ourselves out of a recession — a recession that we’ve now learned was even deeper than anyone thought,” Mr Obama said in his weekly radio and Internet address.
”And when we receive our monthly job report next week, it is likely to show that we are continuing to lose far too many jobs in this country. As far as I’m concerned, we will not have a recovery as long as we keep losing jobs,” he said.
Economists said gross domestic product data on Friday provided clear evidence the 19-month recession was almost over.
…
Ouch! My man Barack is making sure he will be a one termer!
Financial Times
What a carve up
By John Kay
Published: July 31 2009 16:12 | Last updated: July 31 2009 16:12
Liar’s Poker
By Michael Lewis
Hodder £8.99
FT Bookshop price: £7.19
Binge Trading: The Real Inside Story of Cash, Cocaine and Corruption in the City
By Seth Freedman
Penguin £8.99
FT Bookshop price: £7.19
How I Caused the Credit Crunch
By Tetsuya Ishikawa
Icon Books £8.99
FT Bookshop price: £7.19
Foreclosed: HighRisk Lending, Deregulation, and the Undermining of America’s Mortgage Market
By Dan Immergluck
Cornell University Press, £16.50
A Failure of Capitalism: The Crisis of ‘08 and the Descent Into Depression
By Richard Posner
Harvard University Press, £17.95
Chasing Alpha: How Reckless Growth and Unchecked Ambition Ruined the City’s Golden Decade
By Philip Augar
Bodley Head £20
FT Bookshop price: £16
Review of Financial Regulation
Lord Turner
Financial Services Authority
The Spectre at the Feast: Capitalist Crisis and the Politics of Recession
By Andrew Gamble
Palgrave Macmillan £45
The Storm: The World Economic Crisis and What It Means
By Vince Cable
Atlantic Books £14.99
FT Bookshop price: £11.99
EDITOR’S CHOICE
More from Books - Nov-24
Meltdown: The End of the Age of Greed
By Paul Mason
Verso £7.99
FT Bookshop price: £6.39
,,,
Alan Greenspan now speaking on ABC news: (Not exact quotes)
Housing has stabilized temporarily. There is still a good chance of another leg down.
Unemployment numbers will continue to increase for a while.