Bits Bucket For August 12, 2009
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The Housing Bubble
Examining the home price boom and its effect on owners, lenders, regulators, realtors and the economy as a whole.
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Name:Ben Jones
Location:Northern Arizona, United States
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Good Morning H B B!
(In best Robin Williams voice)
nanoo nanoo
Ah Yes! Sun’s just starting to peek over the mountains and another scorcher is in the works.
Hope everyone has a great day, and has anyone
heard from our wood nymph?
She’s still MIA.
That kind of concerns me…Why would she just vanish…Was she upset about something somebody said ??
Oly… upset? She probably kissed a frog, turned out he was a developer, still in shock (Oly runs in circles, thisaway…thataway…spitting…)
That was actually my theory as well. A developer asks for a meeting and in said meeting confesses that he just can’t morally justify bulldozing a particularly sensitive wetland. He’d like to see if she has ideas on how best to save this precious resource. She goes with him to see the site…
…and he ATE her UP.
Maybe she found other gainful occupation besides lurking here? (At least I hope that is the case…)
She said before that she made a good living doing work that she enjoyed, sometimes working from home - without revealing any specifics.
So she may have found a better or more compelling way to spend her time or may have something else that she needs to take care of, but I didn’t get the idea that she was lurking here for lack of things to do.
Maybe a Lightning Bolt came out of the Blue and zapped poor Olygal while she was running nekked in her lawn sprinkler teasing and taunting the Pagan Wood Gods.
Either that or she burnt up when her head sploded and she’s now the stuff of HBB History and Legend.
On dark and stormy nights, we can tell our grandkids, that wE oNCE kNEW, that famous clam fighting caped batwoman of the PNW. We can softly speak of her in Olygalese as the legend live on.
Most likey though, her little car broke down and she’s very busy dragging 43 cases of cheap beer home which she got on sale from that store she always talks about.
Well I always worried that she would mis-identify a mushroom one of these days. The morril of the story is….
Or maybe she and notagator got food poisoning in the world’s best dive bar.
STOP IT! STOP IT! You guys are killing me…
“…and he ATE her UP”
BWAHAHAHAHHAHAHHAHAHHAHAHAHHAHAHAHHAHAHHHHHHHHHH!!! (fpss)
Yes, that is exactly what happened. I was struck by lightning whilst prancing through the sprinkler in a cape and helmet.
No, here I am. I hurt myself last week, and without getting into the lurid details, I will simply say that sitting down is not very fun, no matter how well padded the chair is. *snicker *
Aha! It was the bump! I knew it was trouble. Raccoon?
Oly,
I’m trying to wrap my hands around the picture of you trying to sit gently and tenderly
on a chair and it just doesn’t compute.
Did you get bit by an asp?
Glad you’re still with us. A day without your commentsis a day without sunshine.
Yes, that is exactly what happened. I was struck by lightning whilst prancing through the sprinkler in a cape and helmet.
Welcome back, OG!
Aha! It was the bump! I knew it was trouble. Raccoon?
This is a different bump(s)*.
As for the raccoons, next time I’m going to have the foresight to bundle together a large wad of raccoons, like in a big squirming angry raccoon bale, and position the bale in such a way as to cushion my fall.
*Which I still have, by the way.
No, I did NOT get bit by an asp, Mr. Comical.
*pouty grumble *
please post photos of your bumps (with captions)
And thanks, wolfgirl. I mean it.
I sure hope it had nothing to do with a Joshua Tree.
“Welcome back, OG!”
Take care of yourself. The blog needs wood nymphs
Oly, I am so glad that you are back.
Glad to hear you’re doing good gal. Had me worried. Sent you an email today.
I want to hear all the details. Tell me all about it via email.
Awww Oly,
We all missed you, truly! And it is so nice
to have you back, even with sore buns….
Haven’t Washingtonians heard of Dough-4-Dumps? Or do they have a San Diego problem up there (the sticker price of homes, not to mention the velocity of price declines, is such a high multiple of $8K that the demand elasticity of stimulus is near 0)?
And I love how one after another MSM report is keying in on the normal seasonal changes from Q1 to Q2 as though they represent some kind of green shoot. I suppose it is noteworthy if that was the first quarter-to-quarter sales increase in three years. Perhaps Dough-4-Dumps is working after all?
Washington State Home Sales Fall 15.6 Pct. In 2Q
Article Tools Sponsored By
By THE ASSOCIATED PRESS
Published: August 12, 2009
Filed at 2:37 p.m. ET
SPOKANE, Wash. (AP) — Sales of existing homes in Washington fell in the second quarter, and so did the prices people were paying, the Washington Center for Real Estate Research reported Wednesday.
The number of existing homes sold fell 15.6 percent in the April-June period compared with the same period of 2008.
The center, based at Washington State University in Pullman, reported that the median sale price of a home in the state was $265,100 in the second quarter. That was down 9.2 percent from the same period last year, and the lowest second-quarter price since 2005.
One spot of good news was that home sales rose 11.6 percent in the second quarter compared with the first three months of the year. This was the first quarter-to-quarter improvement in home sales in more than two years.
”While sales improved compared to the first months of the year, it is necessary to look to price levels from a year ago to assess whether stabilization is under way,” said Glenn Crellin, director of the center.
…
Last updated August 12, 2009 10:24 p.m. PT
Home foreclosure filings up more than 100 percent in Seattle area
By CHRIS GRYGIEL
SEATTLEPI.COM STAFF
Home foreclosure filings in the greater Seattle area increased 115 percent in July compared to the same period last year, according to data released Thursday.
Filings in Washington state were up 94 percent from July of this year compared to the same month last year, according to RealtyTrac. The online service tracks foreclosure filings, which are default notices, scheduled auctions and bank repossessions. In King County, such filings were up 148 percent compared to July of last year.
Nationally foreclosure filings were up 32 percent in July of 2009 compared to last year, the tracking service said. Nevada had the nation’s highest foreclosure rate for the 31st consecutive month, with one in every 56 housing units receiving a filing last month.
Washington state ranked 13th. There were 5,370 filing notices last month (one out of every 511 housing units). Oregon’s rank was 10th nationally, with 3,605 filing notices, translating to one out of every 446 housing units.
…
Wasn’t the last time we heard from her right before her meetup with not-a-gator? I asked this in an old thread somewhere but it was too late I think.
Yeah, we talked about it last night late. Last we heard she was cheerily going to meet not-a-gator at her local ‘dive’ bar. Never heard from either since. Anyone live in her area? Or otherwise know her? Or not-a-gator? Maybe they ran off to another blog together.
Last we heard she was cheerily going to meet not-a-gator at her local ‘dive’ bar.
Has Not-A checked in since?
Maybe they eloped.
Maybe they eloped.
I think Not-A mentioned that he was traveling with his wife?
Which is not to say that they couldn’t have eloped…
Maybe he had a bottle of cialis and it still aint used up?
uh uh …uh uh !! yeah butthead
omg, he really was a gator!
Oly posted an email address for not a gator to contact her a week or so before their meeting and disappearance. Maybe someone could dig it up and send her a note?
That’s a good idea, but I have no idea where that would be. If I did, I would do it.
I’ve got it, I’ll send her a note, tell her ATE UP is still.
good
good! way to go dude!
Oly’s e-mail is (deleted by moderator)
Don’t all email at once…ahh what the heck…let’s all email at once!
Works for me.
Maybe she went on vacation and has limited access to the internet. Not everyone has a laptop or a netbook.
Oh, btw—I canceled that email account. All you serial killers who like to collect fluffy blonde heads can go looking somewhere else.
I am sad to report I never did meet up with not-a-gator on that Sunday. It was all my own fault, too, and I have rebuked myself many times for being such a dingle. I just didn’t get back to not-a-gator with my cell number in time, and then they must have arrived at the terminal and been not near a computer, or something? I had ‘em paged, and drove around a bit, but to no avail. Sigh. Then I was mad because I was driving around looking for strangers on a hot Sunday, but THEN I found a great yard-sale! I got some sheep shearers! Now all I need’s a sheep!
I am sad to report I never did meet up with not-a-gator on that Sunday.
I’m just glad you’re back here with us. I was going to put an “Oly Gal Watch” thingy on my blog. It would count down in calories or joules or whatever how long it was since anyone heard from you.
That would have been a lot of work.
Well you could always call The Sheep Shed. I’m sure they could point you in the right direction.
http://www.sheepshed.com/
I’ll bet you could use those shearers on a llama or a boyfriend with excess body hair too.
ATE-UP has been acting rather sheepish since you disappeared.
OLY GAL is back!!!!
HI OLY GAL!! I hope you are getting better and are feeling better, and I am so glad you came back. 
Before we welcome her back with open arms…I wanna know what she’s been doing for the last 15 joules.
alpha, no offense, but I’ll welcome her back with octopus arms, right now!!!
It’s a good day for ATE-UP !
me too! Welcome back Oly. I hope you weren’t abducted by aliens.
You know what? It’s really good to be among pals. Even pals who have seriously exciting imaginations and who gossip and speculate in gaudy and colorful style.
Hmmm…in fact, now that I think of it, that’s obviously the absolutely best kind of pal to have!
:lol:
Super!
Whatever. You’re grounded until further notice, young lady. And wait til your father gets home!
Haha! That’s funny. Thanks.
Seriously, Oly.
A lot of us were worried about you. Even in my “off-blog” life, I mentioned to my husband a few times how you were supposed to meet up with one of our own, but then disappeared. We were worried about you!
Glad to see you back and hear that all is well (except for those bumps).
And yes, ATE-UP is **REALLY, REALLY** glad you’re back. He was going nuts without you.
Good morning HBBers! We’re coming up on the 2nd anniversary of the world credit meltdown, yes?
“2nd anniversary”
Haven’t you heard that it’s over already? (see below)
Please remind me how long after the onset of the Iraq War it was when W gave his speech on the ship?
I take back whatever you thought I said PB.
What did you think I thought you said?
I was referring to the Iraq non sequitur.
Please explain why you consider it to be a non sequitur? I thought it was a perfect sequitur…
Mmm, okay. So it’s not over. I was merely feeling sentimental, how it’s been two whole years since that Aug. 15 event, which I didn’t understand at the time. The following month I discovered HBB through a Kausfiles link.
Two years, and I feel like it’s just getting started. I do think the Iraq thing is over, finally. Obama should declare victory and get out.
“I do think the Iraq thing is over, finally.”
Not to equate the timing of the credit bust with the Iraq War, but how many years ago did W make the announcement on the ship?
In Montana,
Your a newbie
Your a newbie
My what - ? Oh, you meant “you’re.” Yes of course, better late than never, eh?
If PB is looking for when Bush the banner on the aircraft carrier said, “Mission Accomplished,” it was 2003.
You can look that up, you know.
At least you aren’t an annoying newbie that brings up points that have already been hashed, dehashed, and rehashed countless time already.
I just ignore old questions. But I can’t resist popping the pretentious, and their poorly thought-out ideas.
Even when they have ’seniority’.
Tee hee alpha.
.
This period in time will go down in history as Obama’s “MISSION ACCOMPLISHED” moment.
No doubt!!
It can go right over his “CURRENCY DEBASED” banner.
LOL!
From ‘containment’ to ‘green shoots’, it’s been quit an amusing (saddening) show (farce).
I think the current “economic” disease slang is: “Revenue Wilt”
I just hope all those old-timer CEOs keep their pants up while claiming their revenue is bigger than the next guy’s. Don’t need to know about their wilting problems either.
John Mauldin sent out a thing this week written by Gary Schilling (whose predictions of a housing-led bust were a bit early but otherwise accurate). Schilling expects persistent deflation. He thinks “real” house prices will stop declining in about a year, but that nominal house prices will continue to decline like all other prices.
For those w/ large savings, this could be good news. The greenness of shoots is determined by the financial bets the beholder has made.
The cadre of economists with Wall Street ties, who could not see a ginormous credit bubble inflating under their noses a couple of years ago, have now declared that major hostilities in the Fed’s war on the financial crisis have ended.
* The Wall Street Journal
* ECONOMIC FORECASTING
* AUGUST 11, 2009
Economists Call for Bernanke to Stay, Say Recession Is Over
By PHIL IZZO
Economists are nearly unanimous that Ben Bernanke should be reappointed to another term as Federal Reserve chairman, and they said there is a 71% chance that President Barack Obama will ask him to stay on, according to a survey.
Meanwhile, the majority of the economists The Wall Street Journal surveyed during the past few days said the recession that began in December 2007 is now over. Battling the downturn defined most of Mr. Bernanke’s term, which began in early 2006 and expires in January, and economists say his handling of the crisis has earned him four more years as Fed chief.
“He deserves a lot of credit for stabilizing the financial markets,” said Joseph Carson of AllianceBernstein. “Confidence in recovery would be damaged if he was not reappointed.”
The Journal surveyed 52 economists; 47 responded.
…
Not to question the preeminent insight of the 47 respondents to the Wall Street Journal’s survey, but wouldn’t electricity prices most likely be inflating, not deflating, if an economic recovery were already underway?
Wall Street Journal
* AUGUST 12, 2009
Electricity Prices Plummet
BY REBECCA SMITH
Slack demand for electricity across the U.S. is leading to some of the sharpest reductions in power prices in recent years, offering a break for consumers and businesses who just a year ago were getting crunched by massive electricity bills.
On Friday, the nation’s largest wholesale power market serving parts of 13 states east of the Rockies is expected to report that electricity demand fell 4.4% in the first half of the year. That helped to push down spot market prices by 40% during the first half of this year.
…
Well, New England and the upper midwest did have a cooler-than-normal spring and summer (haven’t had to run the a/c much). That accounts for part of it. This week has been our warmest yet.
Right — I recall my midwest-located parents mentioning mid-July temperatures in the 50 degree F range. Global warming must be on hold?
Global warming must be on hold?
Don’t wind up the Flat Earthers, please … just let us enjoy our lovely, temperate summer.
It’s down here in Texas, with lows of 95+ degrees and highs of 108. Though I must confess last night was a lovely 80 degrees, but clowdy, so no meteor shower.
but clowdy, so no meteor shower.
Other than CloWdy, seems every time the showers are due, we
get a haziness over the desert and can’t see said showers.
desertdweller, “…we get a haziness over the desert and can’t see said showers.”
Yosemite Sam (Swinging shovel at Desertdwellers head): “Whack, Whack!” ….What do you see now? …stars? just stars? Whack, Whack, Whack, Whack!…how ’bout now?”
Haziness is due to the wild fires. That’s okay up here we get the fog rolling in about 4:00 pm
I keep ducking… still can’t see for the starz in my eyes and spinning birdies above head.
“Other than CloWdy”
In Texas, clowdy rhymes with howdy, and is spelt the same.
I knew it. There is some reason TX is so high up in education.
Isn’t it as high as 49th?
LOL
“New England residents and businesses used 12.2 percent less electricity in June this year compared with June 2008″
New England Electricity Consumption Dropped in Cold, Damp June
Jul 15, 2009 2:27 PM
ISO New England
http://tdworld.com/customer_service/new-england-energy-consumption-0709/index.html
I was wearing wool socks around here in June.
Wait a second, this proves the global warming theory! Less energy used=less greenhouse gas=cooler summer, viola!
Depends on what’s meant by recovery. Banks are the leading indicator. They could be having their green shoots at the same time as manufacturing is landing on the bottom. (?)
I like tracking electricity prices instead of oil as an reliable indicator. There isn’t much speculation in electricity (hopefully not, since Enron).
“I like tracking electricity prices instead of oil as an reliable indicator.”
Cool! Are you suggesting electricity prices are a leading, contemporaneous or lagging indicator?
Probably contemporaneous, although that’s just a guess. Banks first, goods and commodities (you need e- for those), then employment.
What type of indicator was housing, traditionally? Lagging, I guess, along with all other end-user products. Of course this time, housing is so FUBAR that it will probably be super-leading (b/c of the banks’ role) and super-lagging (b/c of employment).
“…housing, traditionally? Lagging…”
Still lagging, along with unemployment (high unemployment in the tailwinds of the early-1990s recession, which officially ended in 1991, kept CA housing prices falling through 1996 or so)…
“…housing is so FUBAR…”
Yes. The picture is very muddled, thanks to all the distortionary government interventions, but fundamentals suggest the trend is still down relative to incomes and rents for the foreseeable future (at least in markets formerly referred to as a bit frothy…). The trend does not preclude a stimulus-based dead cat bounce, though.
“FUBAR”
May as well extend that description to all dollar-denominated asset prices, a vestige of the Greenspan era which Bernanke’s policies have striven to perpetuate.
Housing starts are traditionally a component of the leading indicators index. They are in both the Conference and OECD leading indications.
However, housing is only one of 7 or 10 conponents in each index and need not be leading in this particular cycle. Unlike other post-war recessions, this one was principally caused by the collapse of housing markets, so it would not be surprising to see housing lag (a lot) in this recovery.
Most economists don’t find leading indicators very useful as forecasting tools, but then most economic forecasts aren’t very accurate anyway.
“FUBAR”
Kung FUBAR
“Housing starts are traditionally a component of the leading indicators index. They are in both the Conference and OECD leading indications.”
That is a perfect reason to use Cash-4-Shacks to goose housing sales, in order to provide a leading indication that green shoots of recovery are sprouting. Pay close attention to the Man Behind the Curtain and you will get a better understanding of the Terry Schiavo economy (no offense intended to Schiavo family members!)…
“FUBAR”
To further elaborate on the problem with government-engineered asset prices, a market economy critically depends on the market price signal to regulate the allocation of resources to sectors of the economy which provide the most value to individual households and firms in the economy. When the price signal is FUBAR, so is the market economy. Wasteful misallocation of resources and eventual financial ruin is the result if this continues long enough (Exhibit A: Look at all the vacant houses!).
A housing ’start’ is a house that someone has started building, which makes sense for a leading indicateor. What about Used Houses? Those aren’t housing starts.
There is soooo much bad info (hype) out there that it’s hard to trust any indicator. It wasn’t so long ago that all the indicators were pointing to a rosy picture, based upon greater fools getting fooled.
Still lagging, along with unemployment (high unemployment in the tailwinds of the early-1990s recession, which officially ended in 1991, kept CA housing prices falling through 1996 or so)…
That is what I saw in the desert region. Still low prices through 96+
How closely do electricity prices track coal and nat gas prices? Why not track use i/o prices?
How about the gaming indicator of economic recovery?
Aug 11, 2009, 5:15 p.m. EST
Not-so-full house: Nevada gambling slump
Las Vegas Strip among worst-hit as casino revenue tumbles
By William Spain, MarketWatch
‘As long as discretionary spending remains tight, the casino industry will continue to feel the impact.’
Joe Weinert, gambling consultant
…
According to Nevada Gaming Control Board, the total win in the Silver State in June amounted to $818.2 million, down from the same period in 2008, when $949.3 million was taken in. While every single region saw revenue wilt, the Las Vegas Strip — which accounts for more than half of the state total — was hurt more than most, dropping nearly 15% to $414.5 million.
…
The figures indicate that the downturn in Las Vegas is sharper and longer than the last major deterioration. In fiscal 2002, a period which included the terrorist attacks of Sept. 11, along with the corresponding fall-off in travel, the last recession and a stock market meltdown, revenues were off about 8%.
…
I wonder if Denny’s is still selling a cup of coffee for $1.99? …they just don’t get it.
(Hwy’s thinking the first joint that offers .10 cent coffee & free WiFi is gonna make a killing)
“Whacked I tell ya…just whacked!”
Speaking of discounts..I have never, since 93 seen so many commercials advertising ’support your local businesses to keep business in our valley’.
During those ‘go go yrs’ of bubble lore, seemed not very many commercials on tv. Everyone was making money hand over fist. Now they are all advertising. Even the chi chi stores are pleading…come buy here, pretty please.
Looks like China’s going green, too. Interesting web site.
http://www.chinastakes.com/2009/6/again-chinas-electric-consumption-does-not-support-official-growth-statistics.html
Some regions report both ~10% growth and ~10% less electric use. Which number is easier to fudge?
Well not in CA.
PG&E is asking for another fare hike.
Same here in Norfolk. Dominion is looking for rate hikes to buy smart meters, although they hiked the rates last time for the same thing.
Florida Power & Light is arguing for a rate hike to invest in green technology. Unfortunately at the same time they are arguing with the Public Service Commission to only produce 0.1% of energy from green systems in 10 years instead of a full 1% that those wacky, liberal enviro nut jobs want.
Bad timing, but fortunately most Floridians can’t read a newspaper.
CA is skrood re: rate hikes. And IIRC Texas was being skrood big time texas style by their electric companies.
‘you see this texas star bub, well it is going so far up..’
I mean rates are going so far up..
Almost like a Joshua tree JT entry.
Step away from the electric bill statement. You might get shocked.
I think tax revenue is a better indicator.
I agree Skip although I have never heard the electricity use indicator…oxide offers some good reasoning to watch that…I saw a chart the other day regarding tax receipts to government…It was in a absolute “Death Spiral”…IMO, the tax man is coming at us in ways we can’t dodge…VAT, increase in utility tax etc..
“…It was in a absolute “Death Spiral””
I miss ol’ Spiral… ;-(
Rumor has it that…Monsanto experimented with “Revenue Wilt” in Bakersfried, CA… way back in 1991…then moved on to “other” things…
How was Reno scdave, besides the rod show…?
Keep in mind we’re talking wholesale prices here - not retail prices. Wholesale prices are tied much closer to fossil fuel energy prices - moreso than probably any other industry, which of course also plummeted recently.
““He deserves a lot of credit for stabilizing the financial markets,” said Joseph Carson of AllianceBernstein. “Confidence in recovery would be damaged if he was not reappointed.””
I would like to put more accurate words into Joseph’s mouth.
“He deserves a lot of credit for maintaining our hegemony over the US economy by giving us everything we want,” said JC of AB. “We’re not confident that a new incumbent would be our tool.”
Pardon an old Valley saying” “Gag me with a spoon”
Sub-prime is contained.
To how much, $200 bn or so?
Nothing price cant fix!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
No price can’t be fixed.
NO ONE EXPECTS THE PRICE FIX!!!!
BRING ME….. THE COMFY PLATITUDES!
BRING ME …. A SHRUBERNANKE!
Economists are nearly unanimous that Ben Bernanke should be reappointed to another term as Federal Reserve chairman, …
And in another survey, economists are nearly unanimous in not wanting to trade jobs with Federal Reserve chairman Ben Bernanke.
“The Journal surveyed 52 economists; 47 responded.”
5 were reported to have run screaming into the night…
Nice to know so many are paid off rubes.
Nattering nabobs of negativism…
24/7 Wall Street
The Pessimists Roll In As The Recovery Takes Root
Posted: August 12, 2009 at 5:00 am
It may be that some people just want to spoil a good time. As earnings, GDP, employment, and housing sales begin to show the trends that have encouraged analysts to call an end to the recession, the voices of pessimism are increasing in volume. New surveys of economists by The Wall Street Journal and Bloomberg both show experts say the recession is over.
One of the premier critics of the idea that the American economy is well on its way to 8% unemployment and 5% GDP growth in 2010 is Harvard economist Kenneth Rogoff. That has to bother Lawrence Summers who heads the National Economic Council for the President. Summers was one of the youngest tenured professors in the history of the Harvard economics department and served as head of the university until he was forced out after questioning the intelligence of women who might be candidates for senior academic positions in science and engineering. Rogoff seems to enjoy poking holes in intellectual positions that Summers has to defend. The most obvious of those is that the Administration is the hero of the nascent recovery.
Rogoff recently said that GDP was unlikely to grow better than 2% over the next five to seven years. That would completely undermine the budget forecasts made by the White House which have been attacked by a number of groups including the Congressional Budget Office. Rogoff’s prediction, if it ends up being even close to accurate, would mean that the stimulus package will fail although it is in its earliest stages and that healthcare reform can hardly be “self-funding.”
…
Meanwhile, the majority of the economists The Wall Street Journal surveyed during the past few days said the recession that began in December 2007 is now over.
Well, let’s see:
1929-1933:
Unemployment 3.3% -> 25%
GDP down 45%
Fed spending 3.1% of GDP -> 8.0% of GDP
Result: throws of depression
1933-1937:
Unemployment 25% -> 14.3%
GDP up 60%
Fed spending 8.0% of GDP -> 9.0% of GDP
Result: still in depression
2007-2009:
Unemployment 4.5% -> 9.5%
GDP up then down (net flat)
Fed spending 19.5% of GDP -> 25.0% of GDP
Result: strong recession
Mid-2009:
Unemployment 9.5% -> 9.4%
GDP flat
Fed spending 25.0% of GDP -> 27.0% of GDP
Result: end of recession?
I report, you decide.
The standing assumption is that by using far more Keynesian stimulus, GD1 could have been avoided.
The experiment is in progress, but it is much too early to judge the results (though politically expedient to pretend otherwise).
…now we are engaged in a great financial war, to see whether this stimulus, or any other stimulus, so conceived and dedicated can long endure….
“…now we are engaged in a great financial war”
Look below…
My main data point though is that given roughly the same amount of Keynesian stimulus (6-8% of GDP), we saw a 60% increase in GDP in the 1930’s but still were in a depression, but this time we’re ready to declare ourselves out of a recession even though we’ve seen zero GDP increase. It doesn’t make sense.
My feeling is that the sole data point being used is the unemployment rate ticking down 0.1%. However what they leave out is the fact that the reason this went down is that a large number of people simply gave up trying to work. Despite a population increase (estimated 306.98M -> 307.23M) the number of total employees went down (estimated 140.20M -> 140.04M).
In in other words - in my very strong opinion we are not out of any recession until GDP goes up (relative to inflation) without an increase in government spending. Until such time any supposed recovery is very much smoke and mirrors.
P.S. I apply the same to the GD, which is why I view that we didn’t actually exit the GD until 1947, since all the post-1939 GDP growth was also very much driven by government spending/debt (mostly military of course).
Packman–And people have largely forgotten the post war recession when that spending ground to a close. As well as how the very high tax rates to pay for it all continued through the early 60s.
“in my very strong opinion we are not out of any recession until GDP goes up (relative to inflation) without an increase in government spending.”
Boo! You’re no fun!
Jon Stewart had a nice discussion of the unemployment rate release with Austan Goolsby on last night’s show. He pointed out the absurdity of eliminating unemployed workers from the denominator of the calculation if they give up looking for work (the so-called “discouraged worker” lie).
Jon Stewart had a nice discussion of the unemployment rate release with Austan Goolsby on last night’s show. He pointed out the absurdity of eliminating unemployed workers from the denominator of the calculation if they give up looking for work (the so-called “discouraged worker” lie).
Well - the problem with that is this - there’s no way to really differentiate between those who really don’t *want* to work (e.g. housewives or early retirees) vs. those who are “discouraged”; it’s very subjective and thus not really measurable. I suppose you could do this via polls, but then I don’t think you could count it as official government stats.
As a point of reference in 1957 only 37% of the population was employed; that steadily rose until it was 47% by 1985. Was it because the economy was so much better? No, it was mainly just due to more women working.
Excuse me, housewives don’t work? Says who? What do you call what they do?
SFBAG,
He means housewives aren’t on the books for any employer, don’t have earned income to tax, etc, and are not looking to change that situation, not that they don’t spend a good portion of their day in various labors.
Somebody retired and tending to their back yard garden is not unemployed anymore than a housewife is unemployed, and thus don’t count towards the unemployment figures.
So it’s hard to determine if somebody who is no longer looking for work is actually ‘out of the workforce’ or is ‘discouraged and not actively looking’ but will be back in the job market when they think there are jobs to be had.
Look at 2 income families. If one gets laid off and decides to take care of the kids for the next few years, they aren’t unemployed. But the house has gone from 2 incomes to 1 income. And when things improve, they might rehire their daycare person and go back to work.
Packman,
They already poll people for the discouraged worker category. There are several numbers for unemployment, and you can dig them out from Mish’s sight or calculated risk.
The answer is, including underemployment and discouraged workers, similar to what was done in the 1980s, leads you to a 17-19% unemployment.
sfbubble,
Yes I know what packman was saying. Just trying to stir the pot
“…As a point of reference in 1957 only 37% of the population was employed; that steadily rose until it was 47% by 1985. Was it because the economy was so much better? No, it was mainly just due to more women working.”
Which is exactly why…today, August 2009, …it only requires x1 income for an American family to “afford” to purchase a home.
There’s are x2 modern terms in the Oxford dictionary that describes this phenomena: “Pilgrim’s” & “Progress”
Oh! Well, then, carry on!
Yes I know what packman was saying. Just trying to stir the pot
Yeah yeah - I figured I might get some feedback from that.
Guess I didn’t really phrase that right - should’ve said “that don’t want to work for a company.” FWIW - my wife - who’s a stay-at-home mom, works tons harder than I do.
Packman,
They already poll people for the discouraged worker category. There are several numbers for unemployment, and you can dig them out from Mish’s sight or calculated risk.
The answer is, including underemployment and discouraged workers, similar to what was done in the 1980s, leads you to a 17-19% unemployment.
Yes I know - “discouraged workers” are part of U4, which is a subset of the published U6 data. U6 however also went down last month, from 16.5% to 16.3%. Best place to get the data is right from the BLS site (will post a link).
BLS data (U3 is the “headline” number, U4 is that plus discouraged workers - from 10.0 -> 9.8% last month)
Wikipedia descriptions
Someone once asked Chairman Mao what he thought of the French revolution. Mao answered that it’s too early to tell.
“The experiment is in progress”
I’m pretty sure we’ve run this model already. Weimar republic. High debt load, print your way out.
packman, apparently you didn’t get the memo: you don’t have to mark to market anymore. This time everyone is rich, and there can be no losses. It says so on paper.
Nice post packman…
1933-1937:
Unemployment 25% -> 14.3%
GDP up 60%
Fed spending 8.0% of GDP -> 9.0% of GDP
Result: still in depression
“…I report, you decide.”
A Funny Thing Happened on the Way to the Forum…
“The modern world is still living with the consequences of World War 2, the most titanic conflict in history. Just under 69 years ago on September
1st 1939, Germany invaded Poland without warning sparking the start of World War Two. By the evening of September 3rd, Britain and France were at war with Germany and within a week, Australia, New Zealand, Canada and South Africa had also joined the war. The world had been plunged into its second world war in 25 years. Six long and bloody years of total war, fought over many thousand of square kilometres followed. From the Hedgerows of Normandy to the streets of Stalingrad, the icy mountains of Norway to the sweltering deserts of Libya, the insect infested jungles of Burma to the coral reefed islands of the pacific. On land, sea and in the air, Poles fought Germans, Italians fought Americans and Japanese fought Australians in a conflict which was finally settled with the use of nuclear weapons. World War 2 involved every major world power in a war for global domination and at its end, more than 60 million people had lost their lives and most of Europe and large parts of Asia lay in ruins.”
And you all thought “Health care was complicated!”
(Hwy muttering…”6 Billion people…things are just getting started…”
Let’s all hope the current “Sit-U-ation” works out his well!
The Plot:
In ancient Rome some neighbors live in three adjacent houses. In the center is the house of Senex, who lives there with wife Domina, son Hero and several slaves, including head slave Hysterium and the musical’s main character Pseudolus, who wishes to buy, win, or steal his freedom. He is the slave of young Hero, son of Senex and Domina. One of the neighboring houses is owned by Marcus Lycus, who is a buyer and seller of beautiful women; the other belongs to the ancient Erronius, who is abroad searching for his long-lost children (stolen in infancy by pirates).
One day, Senex and Domina go on a trip and leave Pseudolus in charge of Hero. Hero confides in Pseudolus that he is in love with the lovely Philia, one of the courtesans in the brothel next door. Pseudolus promises to help him win Philia’s love in exchange for his freedom. Unfortunately (as the two find out when they pay a visit on Lycus), Philia has been promised to the renowned warrior Captain Miles Gloriosus, who is on his way to claim her. Pseudolus, an excellent liar, uses her cheery disposition to convince Lycus that she has picked up a plague from Crete, which causes its victims to smile endlessly in its terminal stages. By offering to isolate her in Senex’s house, he is able to give Philia and Hero some time alone together, and the two fall in love. But Philia insists that, even though she is in love with Hero, she must honor her contract with the Captain, for “that is the way of a courtesan.” Undeterred, Pseudolus comes up with a plan to slip Philia a sleeping potion that will render her unconscious. He will then tell Lycus that she has died of the Cretan plague, and will offer to remove the body. Hero will come along, and they will stow away on a ship headed for Greece. Satisfied with his plan, Pseudolus steals Hysterium’s book of potions and has Hero read him the recipe for the sleeping potion; the only ingredient he lacks is “mare’s sweat,” and Pseudolus goes off in search of some.
Unexpectedly, Senex returns home early from his trip, and knocks three times on his own door. This was the signal that Pseudolus had told Philia he’d use to indicate Miles Gloriosus arrival. She comes out of the house, and, thinking that Senex is the Captain, offers herself up to him. Surprised but game, Senex instructs Philia to wait in the house for him, and she does. Hysterium arrives to this confusion, and tells Senex that Philia is the new maid that he has hired. Pseudolus returns, having procured the necessary mare sweat; seeing that Senex has returned unexpectedly and grasping the need to keep him out of the way, Pseudolus discreetly sprinkles some of the horse-sweat onto him, then suggests that the road trip has left Senex in dire need of a bath. Taking the bait, Senex instructs Hysterium to draw him a bath in the long-abandoned house of Erronius. But while this is happening, Erroneous returns home, finally having given up the search for his long-lost children. Hysterium, desperate to keep him out of the house where his master is bathing, tells the old man that his house has become haunted — a story seemingly confirmed by the sound of Senex singing in his bath. Erroneous immediately determines to have a soothsayer come and banish the spirit from his house, and Pseudolus obligingly poses as one, telling Erroneous that in order to banish the spirit, he must travel seven times around the seven hills of Rome (thus keeping the old man occupied and out of the way for quite awhile).
When Miles Gloriosus arrives to claim his courtesan-bride, Pseudolus hides Philia on the roof of Senex’s house; told that she has “escaped,” Lycus is terrified to face the Captain’s wrath. Pseudolus offers to impersonate Lycus and talk his way out of the mess but, his ingenuity flagging, he ends up merely telling the Captain that Philia has disappeared, and that he, “Lycus,” will set out in search of her. Displeased and suspicious, Miles insists that his soldiers accompany Pseudolus, but the wily slave is able to “lose” them in Rome’s winding streets.
Complicating matters further, Domina returns from her trip early, suspicious that her husband Senex is “up to something low.” She disguises herself in virginal white robes and a veil (much like Philia’s) in order to try and catch Senex being unfaithful. Pseudolus convinces Hysterium to help him by dressing in drag and pretending to be Philia, “dead” from the plague. Unfortunately, it turns out that Miles Gloriosus has just returned from Crete, where there is of course no actual plague. With the ruse thus revealed, the main characters run for their lives, resulting in a madcap chase across the stage with both Miles and Senex pursuing all three “Philia”s (Domina, Hysterium, and the actual Philia — all wearing identical white robes and veils). Meanwhile, the courtesans from the house of Marcus Lycus — who had been recruited as mourners at “Philia”’s ersatz funeral — have escaped, and Lycus sends his eunuchs out to bring them all back, adding to the general pandemonium.
Finally, the Captain’s troops are able to round everyone up. His plot thoroughly unraveled, Pseudolus appears to be in deep trouble — but Erronius, midway through his fourth circuit of the Roman hills, shows up fortuitously to discover that Miles Gloriosus and Philia are wearing matching rings which mark them as his long-lost children. Her betrothal to the Captain obviously nullified by the unexpected revelation that he’s actually her brother, Philia weds Hero; Pseudolus gets his freedom, Gloriosus receives twin courtesans to replace Philia, Erronius gets his children, and a general happy ending prevails.
What, no Amish in the plot?
amo amas amish?
Good one,HWY.
Well there is Dr. Roubini who’s seeing green shoots w/the caveat of a double dip.
Being the Roubini’s “Dr. Doom” I guess you can call me “Dr. Double-doom” then :-).
Actually I do see green shoots as well definitely; I mentioned them back in March in fact - with some posts of us being in the beginning stages of the cusp of a U (though in reality it’s not a U so much as a \_________________________/.
However the problem is this - the ground on which those green shoots lies is increasingly rocky and infertile (debt), thus the shoots are increasingly more dependent upon artificial fertilizer (Federal stimulus) for their survival. And as we know - there’s only so much fertilizer that we can stand.
“there’s only so much fertilizer that we can stand.”
Well,… The powers that be are certainly shoveling out the Bull$hit.
They must think we’re mushrooms
Well if you live upwind from the fertilizer you can stand it for a long time. Of course that all changes when the wind changes direction.
Unless you were raised near a dairy farm.
Then it is all around ambience.
lol
I used to work downwind of a mushroom farm in CA. “Petaluma Perfume” we called it. Particularly pungent during the summer.
Oh, how weird. I also lived near that mushroom farm, but I must say that the chicken sh!t was much worse in high summer.
Meanwhile, the majority of the economists The Wall Street Journal surveyed during the past few days said the recession that began in December 2007 is now over.
These are the same “majority of the economists” that said we wouldn’t have a recession, much less the longest, most severe contraction since the Great Depression.
Instead of such meaningless surveys, I’d rather they survey those economists that got it right or were closer to right.
“I’d rather they survey those economists that got it right or were closer to right.”
That would not be a random sample, would it?
Economists Call for Bernanke to Stay, Say Recession Is Over
Thank god.
I’m going to buy me a house, a 4×4, coupla ATVs, jetski, plasma TVs and load up on stainless steel appliances.
Yahoo!
don’t forget the jowl tightening, liposuction, and pec implants
“I’m going to buy me a…”
Ha, I figured you used craigslist too! Vegas really is a grownup playground, and surrounded by all that “wilderness”…just a few miles away!
(Hwy writes: “They ain’t makin’ no more land” with a sharpie and throws in the front window of sTrump Towers…run Hwy…Run!
This evening, there was a Wall Street Journal columnist - David Wessel - on PBS’s News Hour with Jim Lehrer. He said that the credit crisis was unimaginable to economists and politicians and other principals in the financial industry.
I guffawed. “The Economist” magazine had a cover in 2004 called, “House of Cards”, talking about the global real estate bubble. There was a 60 Minutes piece which talked about an email from a financial industry insider who hoped they were all “rich and retired by the time the house of cards fell”.
To this day - all the top financial industry players were heavily enriched by this bubble, and the giant bonuses are back. The players knew there was a house of cards, but they got theirs, and are still getting theirs.
I find it disconcerting that a popular financial columnist would make such a silly assertion, that the meltdown was a complete surprise.
This indicates just how clueless the American people must be, with purported financial specialists making statements like this.
The Two-Party Trap:
Neither side looks good in Healthcare Reform -
What does either party stand for these days? Republican politicians, with their endless scandals, are hardly exemplars of traditional moral values. Nor have they generated new ideas for healthcare, except for medical savings accounts, which would be pathetically inadequate in a major crisis for anyone earning at or below a median income.
And what do Democrats stand for, if they are so ready to defame concerned citizens as the “mob” — a word betraying a Marie Antoinette delusion of superiority to ordinary mortals. I thought my party was populist, attentive to the needs and wishes of those outside the power structure. And as a product of the 1960s, I thought the Democratic party was passionately committed to freedom of thought and speech.
But somehow liberals have drifted into a strange servility toward big government, which they revere as a godlike foster father-mother who can dispense all bounty and magically heal all ills. The ethical collapse of the left was nowhere more evident than in the near total silence of liberal media and Web sites at the Obama administration’s outrageous solicitation to private citizens to report unacceptable “casual conversations” to the White House. If Republicans had done this, there would have been an angry explosion by Democrats from coast to coast. I was stunned at the failure of liberals to see the blatant totalitarianism in this incident, which the president should have immediately denounced. His failure to do so implicates him in it.
(From C. Paglia)
No, no, it’s all part of that Master Plan that was mentioned yesterday. Don’t question it. You are “anti-American” if you question it. It seems like the O administration is stealing every play from the GWB playbook.
What’s so laughable is how so many thought that one party would undo the “progress” made by the other under the Patriot Act and other post 9/11 paranoia power grabs.
There’s no going back folks, the genie is out of the bottle and what lies ahead ain’t nothing like the over idealized 1950-2000 bliss so many still pine for. Try to keep that in mind when snapping up all those deals.
This is what I was telling my more conservative friends who were saying “Of course the president has the right to lock up terrorists like Jose Padilla and to wiretap peole on the basis of an executive order.” My response was “You realize that you’re granting this power not just to this president, but to all those who follow him, whether you agree with their policies or not, don’t you?”
IF the green shoots wither, and IF dissent mounts - there WILL be another crisis and the hammer will fall.
(Machiavelli made me say that)
The hammer will fall on us.
The more power given to the government the harder it is to get back.
The hammer and sickle will fall on us.
was you ever crushed by a dead commie?
Jim A.
i tried explaining that to my die-hard republican freinds but they just couldn’t get there due their partisan blindness.
i used to be the same way…till ron paul gave me the red pill.
Well I guess that they thought that it didn’t matter, what with the “permanant republican majority,” and all…..
Well I guess that they thought that it didn’t matter, what with the “permanant republican majority,” and all…..
The irony for Republicans pushing the line item veto in the 80’s (wanting it for Reagan) was that the first president that had it (until it was declared unconstitutional by the Supreme Court) was Bill Clinton, a Democrat.
When considering what powers to extend to the president, one needs to consider whether these are powers that should be extended to any president, not just the one’s one likes.
llike when some republicans were kicking around the idea of getting rid of the natural born citizen requirement to make way for arnold.
if it would have gotten any traction you may have read about me in the paper.
I agree edgewaterjohn….What does the “New Normal” look like ?….
Suppose it depends on how one leads one’s life. If watching lots of network TV, being a worker drone, and making the minimum payment is one’s thing - then probably not too bad.
I think many would very much like to be a worker drone right about now.
In the old soviet union, the reporting of “unpatriotic” conversations to the KGB got many people sent to the gulag.
Of course they had a socialist government that feared anything that it could not control, or bully.
It is a matter of record that most extreme governments either to the left, or to the right, decide early on that freedom of expression needs to be curtailed one way or another. Critisism of the regime is unpatriotic/counterrevolutionary, and is not to be tolerated.
Enter the Communications Czar. Well espoused views that blogs like this one, and many others, that constantly repeat that the emperor has no clothes, should be shut down in order to protect the people.
Liberalism once meant freedom. Now it means repression. Chavez in Vza would be proud.
Pinch,
Right, in the days immediately following wire tap auth. I had a number of problems w/ my home office line. It was pretty clear to me that if you had any calls made to the Philippines from that line ( you were getting tapped )
It made the line almost unuseable for business purposes. I mean you could definitely hear another “party” on the line. Loud unmistakable hum and numerous clicks. But.., I didn’t mind. I understand. But as you point out, just sharing the emperor’s state of attire is no call to be silenced.
That was probably on the foreign side. Here in the USA, there is no audible disruption to the call. It’s done on the electronic switch. Google CALEA for information on the add-on computer that sits at every phone central office to allow law enforcement remote access to phone calls.
Remember that in East Germany, although 5 million out of a population of 16 million were government informers, the last communist leader Honecker had absolutely no idea that the entire country was going to dissolve.
The reporting of non-patriotic conversations merely became a method of settling personal vendettas.
Exactly right Skip.
Think about how many people would just love to see out favorite blog (this one) shut down for good?
How many people in the NAR, the MBA, the REIC would just love the blogs that educated us, (I was ALMOST ready to throw my money away in a fixer-upper) to be shut down for anti-patriotic and anti buy a house now stances?
“became a method of settling personal vendettas”
Yet another triumph for the free market!
Soviet union had a communist dictatorship as I recall.
Liberalism once meant freedom. Now it means repression. Chavez in Vza would be proud??????
Liberalism in no way means repression except in the minds of right wing zealots. Conservatism means repression, see Karl Rove purging judges that were not loyal to his cause. See illegal wire taps and secret renditions over the last 8 years. See spying on antiwar protesters. See protesters shutting down town hall meetings and threatening politicians.Pinochet,the mullahs of Iran and Saudi Arabia would be proud.
There, my friend you are utterly wrong.
The Union of Socialist States, or USSR was a socialist government. A communist government was tried in Russia after 1918, and failed early on in the revolution (Trotsky). After the communist government, Stalin (ultra-left anybody?) purged more people for being on the wrong side of the political spectrum than anybody in Europe. In fact there are nasty rumours that he killed more of his own citizens than even Hitler managed.
Lets not forget our friends south of the border, Fidel Castro et-al. Another Socialist government with tons of freedom of expression. The mullahs of Iran et al are Islamists…. If you want to compare religious nuts with people that disagree with the Messiah, be my guest.
I in no way condoned the Activities that you allude to. In fact nowhere in my post do I see a defense of Bush policies. Please DO enlighten me where you got that Idea from?
My whole argument is that extreme regimes, (left or right) find it IMPERATIVE to reduce freedom of expression to its minimum, and openly encourage people to “rat” out on their friends and neighbors in the name of the state.
And as far as shutting down town hall meetings, what is so wrong with that? Freedom of expression anybody? Freedom of assembly? Or is it just freedom for the left to protest, and every body else has to kowtow to the left because they are oh, so enlightened?
Spare me.
Just a heads up.. Chavez is ultra left.. His policies have driven one of the richest nations in Latam to extreme poverty, and the ONLY thing that they can export now is oil. That is if Colombia does not decide to stop selling CNG to them in order for them to pump out the remaining oil out of their old wells.
“…and openly encourage people to “rat” out on their friends and neighbors in the name of the state.”
Hey, I know of at least x7 people that have registered their CA vehicles “out-of-state” …what’s the current bounty pay?
Don’t know what the bounty is for out of state Ca vehicles… but I think that the “bounty” to rat out your fellow citizens to the IRS is about 30% of recovered money?
“…or to the right, decide early on that freedom of expression needs to be curtailed one way or another. Critisism of the regime is unpatriotic/counterrevolutionary, and is not to be tolerated.”
I tried to get into a “young repubican’s” meeting once wearing a George Carlin t-shirt…guess what happened…run Hwy…Run!
we have that now. Corp puts signs up every couple of yrs.
You can ‘tattle’ on those you think are doing wrong. And you will get paid a bonus.
New promo every couple of yrs.
Goes over like a lead balloon and company back tracks. But you will always have the koolaid drinkers, the brownie point yearners, the boy scout patch getters.
cobaltblue - your statements lack facts - Watch Rachel Maddow (MSNBC) and get educated on the facts please!
You’re going to compare Rachel Maddow to Camille Paglia? you’re the one that needs an education.
Hey kirisdad, I wanted to thank you for your kind comment the other day. ATE
Ate-up, I wish you well… and a new blog name.
You put a bug in my ear kirisdad…:) Hmmm…
Chow-Down?
Hahahahahahahahaha!
Camille Piglia- BA, Binghamton U., Masters from Yale.
Rachel Maddow- BA from Stamford, PhD from Oxford and Rhodes Scholar.
Who needs an education now?
Thank you for educating us all!
Rachel Maddow is one smart cookie
and does extensive research.
Stamford, CT?
Rachel also does not yell at her guests when she is interviewing them.
Not ideologies, self interest, as reported here first:
http://www.r8ny.com/blog/larry_littlefield/the_health_care_reform_problem_interests_not_ideology.html
cobalt,
I read the same article. Pretty good.
Salon is one of my favorite online magazines.
If Republicans had done this, t
They did, they still do.
CamPag is incorrect.
Don’t get me wrong desert. I thought it was a good article. That doesn’t mean I agreed with what she said.
I knew that ;> !
I have read her over time, and after just one article, I come away feeling like one kernel of insight, then the rest I feel like I stepped in something slimey. Writes well, fails to be balanced or helpful.
The ethical collapse of the left was nowhere more evident than in the near total silence of liberal media and Web sites at the Obama administration’s outrageous solicitation to private citizens to report unacceptable “casual conversations” to the White House.
This is something that filled me with rage when I read it, but when I tried to find the original source material to confirm it, this is what I come across on the white house website:
There is a lot of disinformation about health insurance reform out there, spanning from control of personal finances to end of life care. These rumors often travel just below the surface via chain emails or through casual conversation. Since we can’t keep track of all of them here at the White House, we’re asking for your help. If you get an email or see something on the web about health insurance reform that seems fishy, send it to flag@whitehouse.gov.
Nothing about this really makes me angry. It seems like they just want to know what people are saying about the proposed health care reforms and how it differs from the realty of them. Plus, cooperating with them will probably get your grandmother leniency when she faces the death panel.
If you get an email or see something on the web about health insurance reform that seems fishy, send it to flag@whitehouse.gov.
Thanks for the info. It doesn’t sound like the Gestapo, but it’s badly, BADLY, worded. Are we supposed to report the entire fishy email (including the identity of the sender) or just the substance of the rumor itself? Does it matter if it’s a public website or a private email?
Whatever, this is a bad mistake in PR. It would have been much better to quietly hire a liberal intern to make up a yahoo email address and pose as wingnut on a conservative site. Messiah & Co. would receive all the email rumors they wanted, without asking the rest of us to snitch.
Oh, I agree. I’m not a fan of the current government. But the tone of the article (as you mention below)really bothered me. It was unreliable because it wasn’t as interested in facts as it was in manipulating me with emotional tactics.
bull
pretzel
“Plus, cooperating with them will probably get your grandmother leniency when she faces the death panel.”
LOL! classic
Paglia’s language in that article is deliberately misleading. Freedom of thought and speech doesn’t apply to libel, false advertising, or shouting Fire in a crowded theatre. And isn’t geing attentive to the needs of those outside the power structure exactly what the public option is for? (On the conservative side, apparently you only deserve the right to buy health insurance if you “work hard,” that is, if you are IN the power structure.)
Conservatives are no less guilty than liberals when it comes to revering the godlike foster-father who can cure all ills, except that their foster father is the Free Market. The Free Market, btw, is more likely to refuse to cure any ills, because that would cut into their profits.
Okay, that said, I heard about the “snitch website,” as Rush calls it. Does anyone have the link so I can get a better look? Maybe the reason the “liberal” media isn’t covering it is that it’s not so inflammatory as Paglia suggests, and is therefore not as newsworthy as Michael Jackson?
Paglia’s language in that article is deliberately misleading.
Paglia seems to be painting a sensationalistic picture of something non-sensational — though I do agree with the wider premise, that the current administration hasn’t done nearly enough to roll back bad policies, or policies that aren’t consistent with their stated ideals and goals. I have been quite disappointed on that front.
Conservatives are no less guilty than liberals when it comes to revering the godlike foster-father who can cure all ills, except that their foster father is the Free Market.
Conservatives, at least the currently elected “conservatives,” are as addicted to big government as currently elected “liberals” (my quotes indicate doubt about the veracity of these labels in relation to most of our elected officials) — their addiction is just directed at different government entities. See the Dept. of Homeland Security and Department of Defense for examples of conservative government addiction — defense spending is about 21% of the United States federal budget, and that figure doesn’t include the “supplementary” and “discretionary” funds shunted to defense via legislative end-around. Our current overseas conflicts are largely run and maintained by this off-budget supplementary spending.
what market has been “free” since 1913
And of course there were no bubbles, booms, or busts back in those halcyon pre-1913 days. Nor any market manipulation.
There were, but back then, the damage really was “contained” as the culture of gov’t meddling had not grown completely out of control yet.
But mostly contained because of the regionality of old economies. Would today’s interconnectedness not create more widespread busts?
There were, but back then, the damage really was “contained” as the culture of gov’t meddling had not grown completely out of control yet.
It was contained because of the more insular, less complex nature of commerce. In some cases, it was arguably also contained by direct intervention, such as JP Morgan’s pledge of capital during the Panic of 1907.
How the heck of you been taxme?
Haven’t seen you on the boards in a while.
Hey ho, taxme. wazzzup?
Your pathetic attempt to paint the administration as Thought Police with your “reporting conversations” garbage, you disingenuous harpy.
This is the actual language from WhiteHouse.gov:
If you get an email or see something on the web about health insurance reform that seems fishy, send it to flag@whitehouse.gov.
I think that looks like the White House wants to know what kind of nonsense the opposition is spewing.
camille is vapid and full of hate. She, as a full professor has HER insurance. Not admired, unless you are one of her.
‘paranoia strikes deep…into your life it will creep…’
Link to Camille Paglia’s Salon article:
http://www.salon.com/opinion/paglia/2009/08/12/town_halls/
Her usual bs and vitriol aimed against those who aren’t as well off as her, and those who aren’t, um, one of her.
As long as she has HERS, there is no reason for others to have some as well.
So I guess you support Universal Housing, Universal Groceries, Universal Clothing as well?
I think I could actually support this deal, if it were limited to tents, rice, and gunny sacks.
The perps buying steak with food stamp are the thing that pisses me off…
Will Toll Brothers employees have to go live with their parents now?
Wall Street Journal
* REAL ESTATE
* AUGUST 12, 2009, 8:22 A.M. ET
Toll Brothers Home-Building Revenue Falls 42%
BY KERRY GRACE BENN
Toll Brothers Inc. said Wednesday fiscal third-quarter home-building revenue fell 42% from a year earlier as the housing market continued to sag.
In a statement, the builder of luxury homes said home-building revenue for the three months ended July 31 fell to $461.3 million from $796.7 million a year earlier.
The company said net signed contracts during the three months ended July 31 rose to 837 units from 812 units a year earlier. In dollar terms however, net signed contracts fell to $447.7 million from $469.9 million a year earlier…
But their stock is set to rally today because orders are up 3% year over year. I’m not making that up. I would not be surprised if TOL hits $22 today. This is great news.
Have they ever bothered to change their defunct business model? Because the absence of stimulus for the Jumbo loan market coupled with looming prime- and Alt-A ARM resets suggests the luxury market is toast for the foreseeable time horizon.
I don’t mean to suggest the fundamentals should have any bearing on their stock price…
Robert Toll made over a $1 billion, didn’t he? What does he care. With that kind of money I’d be shaking with giddiness every day I woke up, ever.
He’ll have a tower made..install a bell…ring it morning…ding, ding…”For whom the bell Toll’s”
An interesting Smithsonian article discussing “risk compensation”, including financial risk. The basic concept being - the more safety measures you put in place, the riskier the resulting behavior.
…
This counterintuitive idea was introduced in academic circles several years ago and is broadly accepted today. The concept is that humans have an inborn tolerance for risk—meaning that as safety features are added to vehicles and roads, drivers feel less vulnerable and tend to take more chances. The feeling of greater security tempts us to be more reckless. Behavioral scientists call it “risk compensation.”
…
There has been a lively debate over risk compensation ever since, but today the issue is not whether it exists, but the degree to which it does. The phenomenon has been observed well beyond the highway—in the workplace, on the playing field, at home, in the air. Researchers have found that improved parachute rip cords did not reduce the number of sky-diving accidents; overconfident sky divers hit the silk too late. The number of flooding deaths in the United States has hardly changed in 100 years despite the construction of stronger levees in flood plains; people moved onto the flood plains, in part because of subsidized flood insurance and federal disaster relief. Studies suggest that workers who wear back-support belts try to lift heavier loads and that children who wear protective sports equipment engage in rougher play. Forest rangers say wilderness hikers take greater risks if they know that a trained rescue squad is on call. Public health officials cite evidence that enhanced HIV treatment can lead to riskier sexual behavior.
All of capitalism runs on risk, of course, and it may be in this arena that risk compensation has manifested itself most calamitously of late. William D. Cohan, author of House of Cards, a book about the fall of Bear Stearns, speaks for many when he observes that “Wall Street bankers took the risks they did because they got paid millions to do so and because they knew there would be few negative consequences for them personally if things failed to work out. In other words, the benefit of their risk-taking was all theirs and the consequences of their risk-taking would fall on the bank’s shareholders.” (Meanwhile investors, as James Surowiecki noted in a recent New Yorker column, tend to underestimate their chances of losing their shirts.) Late last year, 200 economists—including Sam Peltzman, who is now professor emeritus at Chicago—petitioned Congress not to pass its $700 billion plan to rescue the nation’s overextended banking system in order to preserve some balance between risk, reward and responsibility. Around the same time, columnist George Will pushed the leaders of the Big Three automakers into the same risk pool.
“Suppose that in 1979 the government had not engineered the first bailout of Chrysler,” Will wrote. “Might there have been a more sober approach to risk throughout corporate America?”
so….over regualtion could encourage more risky behavior? perhaps?
Only if the regulation provides a safety net. Regulation that makes it hard to do something stupid discourages it regulation that makes it easy to do something encourages it. ‘Regulation = bad’ isn’t supported by the article IMHO.
michael,
I’m just taking the article at face value. We’ve all seen evidence where seat belts, air bags and anti-lock brakes lead to people to conduct themselves as if they were playing bumper cars ( at 70+ mph )
I have not seen the evidence with seatbelts,airbags and anti-lock brakes. But, I have seen it with SUV’s.
The bailouts and bankruptcy laws provide for the risk taking. IMO, more enforcement, stricter BK laws and no bailouts creates less need for more regulation.
i heard a libertarian once say that if the government really wanted an absolute zero accident rate in automobiles they should remove all seatbelts and install a spear in the center of everyone’s steering wheel.
he was of course just kidding around…funny thought though.
We’ve all seen evidence where seat belts, air bags and anti-lock brakes lead to people to conduct themselves as if they were playing bumper cars ( at 70+ mph )
Is that why people conduct themselves as if they were playing bumper cars? I thought it was because they were idiots.
Have you driven in a third world country? A lack of safety features certainly doesn’t make people drive more cautiously in, say, Mexico City or Cairo.
+1 ET, absolutely true. Even the perfectly civilized Parisians drive like maniacs.
Watch a Nascar race, and you’ll see evidence where body harnesses, flame retardant suits and roll cages lead to people to conduct themselves as if they were playing bumper cars ( at 200+ mph )
Nonsense- it’s for the money.
so….over regualtion could encourage more risky behavior? perhaps?
Depends on the nature of the regulation. We tend to wrongly view regulation as a strictly black/white thing where regulation = restriction = forced risk reduction, but in reality there are many different types of regulation; in many cases regulation forces an *increase* in risk. Two prime examples are the Federal Reserve lending rate reductions (a form of regulation), and things like the CRA - both of which very much encouraged risk.
(Continuing the discussion from yesterday)
Free markets include proper regulation, not lack of regulation. Specifically:
- Prevention of fraud
- Protection of unwilling parties
- Assurance of equal opportunity
I’d say it’s more too-big-to-fail that caused the overconfident risk taking. That was the safety net they assured themselves with, as they walked us all off the cliff.
+1 How different was it from a bank robber taking customers hostage?
I’d say it’s more too-big-to-fail that caused the overconfident risk taking. That was the safety net they assured themselves with, as they walked us all off the cliff.
Very much agree, though I don’t differentiate the two. Exercising too-big-to-fail precepts is actually just a form of over-regulation.
See my post above about people wrongly thinking that regulation = restriction.
Think of it in terms of say a steam pressure valve, being used to “regulate” pressure. It does have a restrictive component, but that’s not its only function. Opening the valve too much doesn’t change the amount of regulation, it just removes some restriction. Opening the valve too much can be harmful, as can closing it too much; depending on the system and upon your perspective (whether or not your on the input vs. the output side of the pressure change).
Over-regulation would be building a too-complex system of valves, such that very few if any people actually know how to control it. General users of the system now have to put their trust in a so-called “expert”, and are subject to that expert’s whims, and have to pay accordingly. And in a complex system it’s a lot easier for the “expert” to screw up and for the whole thing to blow.
+1, nice analogy.
so….over regualtion could encourage more risky behavior?
Let’s take speed limits. They are a form of regulation. They certainly don’t encourage risky behavior and decrease motor vehicle death rates when enforced. Child safety seats clearly decrease the risk of death during an accident.
Child safety seats clearly decrease the risk of death during an accident.
Ah, but you’re bypassing the premise of the article - which is that you’re less likely to get in an accident if you’re not using a child safety seat.
Don’t get me wrong - certain safety measures are definitely warranted - such as child safety seats. Even though there is a risk compensation factor (people may drive less safely when using safety seats vs without), oftentimes the additional safety factor of the device still is greater than the reduced safety of the risk compensation, making it worthwhile.
In the cases of economics however, this is generally not true, in my opinion at least. However being that it’s incredibly complex and therefore virtually impossible to measure, for the most part it remains a theoretical exercise. That doesn’t make it a discardable theory though, any more than say Keynesian theory.
Child safety seats can have unintended consequences. Think about a couple with a small car, add a couple of kids with the huge safety seats and suddenly an SUV is in order. That SUV could possibly roll over when the car wouldn’t killing all involved, but more likely just harm to the environment and contribute to the middle east’s wealth and power.
the benefit of their risk-taking was all theirs and the consequences of their risk-taking would fall on the bank’s shareholders.
Let’s take it a step further. Shareholders — in a bank or any other corporation — encourage risk-taking because they get (most of) the benefits of success, and the costs of failure are borne by others, because of corporate limited liability.
The entire framework of corporate law encourages inappropriate risk-taking from the get-go.
“…and the costs of failure are borne by others, because of corporate limited liability.”
It gets much better for firms that are deemed “systematically important” (aka too-big-to-fail).
The entire framework of corporate law encourages inappropriate risk-taking from the get-go.
I agree wholeheartedly about that.
We’ve codified bad corporate behavior and baked it into the cake.
We’ve codified bad corporate behavior and baked it into the cake. It’s time to get a new recipe for the cake, and/or fire the cake bakers.
Spring was never waiting for us till
it ran one step ahead
as we followed in the dance.
Between the parted pages
we were pressed,
in love’s hot, fevered iron
like a striped pair of pants.
Mac Arthur’s Park is melting in the dark
all the sweet green icing flowing down
someone left the cake out in the rain
I don’t think that I can take it
’cause it took so long to bake it
and I’ll never have that recipe again
Oh, nooo!
I recall the yellow cotton dress
foaming like a wave
on the ground beneath your knees
birds like tender babies in your hands
and the old men playing
Chinese checkers
by the trees
Mac Arthur Park’s is melting in the dark
all the sweet green icing flowing down
someone left the cake out in the rain
I don’t think that I can take it
’cause it took so long to bake it
and I’ll never have that recipe again
Oh, nooo!
There’ll be another song for me
and I will sing it
there’ll be another dream for me
someone will bring it
I will drink the wine while it is warn
and never let you catch me
looking at the sun, oh yeah
and after all the loves of my life
after all loves in my life
you’ll be the one
I will take my life into my hands
and I will use it
I will win the worship in their eyes
and I will lose it
I will have the things that I desire
and my passion flow
like rivers through the sky
oh and after all the loves in my life
after all the loves in my life
you’ll still be the one
and I’ll ask myself why.
Mac Arthur’s Park is melting in the dark
all the sweet green icing flowing down
someone left the cake out in the rain
I don’t think that I can take it
’cause it took so long to bake it
and I’ll never have that recipe again
Oh, nooo!
Actually, that was good song. It was, what? 7:12 long, kinda pre-dated Hey Jude in that majesty. I don’t know if I would like it today if I heard it though, but I still love Hey Jude.
Researchers have found that improved parachute rip cords did not reduce the number of sky-diving accidents; overconfident sky divers hit the silk too late.
Perhaps the major cause of sky diving accidents wasn’t rip cord failures?
The number of flooding deaths in the United States has hardly changed in 100 years despite the construction of stronger levees in flood plains; people moved onto the flood plains, in part because of subsidized flood insurance and federal disaster relief.
Wouldn’t this also have changed because we have a higher population and people like to live close to the water
Studies suggest that workers who wear back-support belts try to lift heavier loads
OK. Maybe this is true.
and that children who wear protective sports equipment engage in rougher play.
Duh. That was the point of the equipment in the first place. The fact is we were playing football and riding skateboards before the equipment. Now we aren’t killing each other as much
Forest rangers say wilderness hikers take greater risks if they know that a trained rescue squad is on call.
I never thought of that when hiking. I was always more concerned about getting caught not packing out my TP. And I put it deep under ground
Public health officials cite evidence that enhanced HIV treatment can lead to riskier sexual behavior.
Again this like the sports example where people are returning to their normal behavior pattern
Understand the concept just horrible examples to demonstrate it.
James,
Why… you’ve laid out the full buffett! I’ve been harping on these issues for years. My father drove without a seatbelt his whole life. Didn’t care for them.
Also usually had a “tall boy” on the front seat as well. Never had so much as a parking ticket let alone an insurance claim. NOT… that I’m in any way advocating that behavior ( simply that we look at our ‘current’ behavior )
DinOR,
Wasn’t it you that also quoted your father as saying something like people who get busted for drinking and driving are amateurs?
“Suppose that in 1979 the government had not engineered the first bailout of Chrysler,” Will wrote. “Might there have been a more sober approach to risk throughout corporate America?”
I know it’s been “awhile”, and some of you all still think that Studebaker brothers only made covered wagons & wheelbarrows but…
The good old days of corporation failures…
“…When the war ended, Studebaker’s reputation for reliability led to increased sales, and the company prospered until the Great Depression. In 1933, in the depths of the depression, the company went into receivership. Normal practice at the time was to simply sell all of the company’s assets and pay off the creditors as best as possible. Studebaker however, was able to convince Congress that its real value was as a going concern, wherein workers would still have jobs and pay taxes. Bankruptcy law was revised by Congress to let the company put forth a plan of reorganization and repayment of its debts. The company recovered from the depression, and by the late 1930’s was in financial health again.”
You all know how this story ended…a little further on down the road…”
I didn’t know that - thanks for the info. Yet another example (there are probably hundreds).
..All of capitalism runs on risk, of course, and it may be in this arena that risk compensation has manifested itself most calamitously of late…
I don’t think it’s at all correct to say capitalism runs on risk. The risk element is more like the economic brakes.
More risk (brakes) equals less movement.. less production. Less investment, less experimentation, less lending, less growth, etc.
When banks lent money to strawberry pickers they were not (in their minds) taking on higher risk. Lenders, like everyone else, thought prices would continue to rise and the loans were secure thanks to steadily increasing collateral value.
Investors had an insatiable appetite for MBS because they thought similarly… that property prices would continue upward or stay at some high plateau.
Higher risk (or even the unfounded belief that risk is higher) slows things down.. it doesn’t speed things up.
High risk doesn’t fuel bubbles. If anything, high risk discourages bubbles. High risk discourages everything economic.
——————
Now.. take the average bank executive of 2000-2005. He sees low market risk. He’s paid to make reasonable risk-decisions, adjusting things according to current conditions.
As the bubble grows he sees very low risk, eases off the brakes and shifts things into high gear. “Lend to anyone that wants to buy a house.”
He’s not committing economic suicide. In his mind it’s the opposite. He’s taking advantage of the situation.
It’s convenient to attribute some supreme intelligence to the various lenders and PTB and claim they knew investment risk was high while risk for themselves was actually LOW because of govt bailouts or whatever, but I find it completely unbelievable.
Such insight would require not only recognition of the bubble and foresight into future of their extensive investments, but foresight into the minds of the future public mood and that of the future government (yet to be newly elected, btw).
Gambling on a bailout is akin to being in a fully loaded runaway semi flying down a mountain without any brakes at all.. way too risky.
Jon Stewart had a tough question for Obamanomics Team member Austan
Goolsbee.
Stewart: “Are we broke?”
Goolsbee: “No.”
Stewart (incredulous): “How is that?”
…
See the whole interview at http://www.thedailyshow.com/
Is Goolsbee…pronounced: Phoolsmee?
If it ain’t broke, don’t fix it.
TOL is $22.55 in pre-market trading.
Time for any gamblers left standing to get your shorts ready?
$23
I think the Dow could be at 14k by the close today. WTF???
Exactly. The bulls of Pamplona are stampeding — run for cover!!!
The stock market is already the next bubble. Too much easy money floating around. Three stock market bubbles in less than 10 years. The pigmen will not be denied.
OK, NYCB, here’s your opening:
Toll Brothers Inc
NYSE: TOL
Aug 12, 2009 2:47 p.m. $23.23
Change
+2.75 +13.43%
Volume 11.14m
Previous close $20.48
Here’s a note to the wise among the gold bugs.
Casey Serin is now trying to make his fortune in gold.
http://www.nbcbayarea.com/news/local-beat/Former-Blogger-Realtor-Turns-to-Prospecting-jw-52605877.html
he’s off to the hills in his van, hoping to catch in on the new California gold rush with a pan in his hand.
So Casey Serin is now living in a van down by the river.
At least this is an honest living, possibly.
A van down by the river beats jail, which is where he should be.
Bawhaha! Thanks for the Casey update! That guy cracks me up.
LOL - good luck with that. Actual panning for gold worked well until about a year after gold was discovered in January 1848. By mid-1949 or so all the easy-to-get gold was gone. Something tells me Casey won’t be real big into actual mining work a couple of miles underground, which is what it takes nowadays.
What? No sweet dealz right on top?
Yeah I’ve gone panning in the Boise basin and there’s not much surface gold around any more.
Casey’s very good at what he does - which is attention whoring.
Here’s another story about the same thing….but with comments. Guess who shows up in the comments - THE MAN himself.
Then I’ll admit to having occasional mild fears of the wild animals or crazy peolple who may be wondering through the forest, since there are other claims and private land out here. I’m a bit scared of the snakes too.
But as I face and overcome my fears it gives me confidence and a closer connection to the forest and nature. I just scared away a bear who was prowling through the bushes earlier today by beating my machete against a shovel while standing from a commanding position on top of my van. Crazy stuff.
http://www.walletpop.com/blog/2009/08/03/the-worlds-most-hated-blogger-on-real-estate-gold-and-the-pai/
“…or crazy peolple who may be wondering through the forest,”
All he had to do was… follow the mailman to & from aladinsane house… sheez, greenhorns…
He might wind up in Alaska…talking with Sarah “The Barracuda” about Russia.
“So Casey Serin is now living in a van down by the river.”
LOL! This made my day.
On a related note, several of my friends have ‘gone bust’ and moved back to Rochester. The contrarian in me has made note. Time to convince the wife to remain in Florida?
Muggy, if you get time, read the article and then the 20 comments. Weird dude for sure.
Oh my.
Casey and real estate ca. 2006 —-> RE bubble deflates
Casey and precious metals ca. 2009 —–> ?
Who can fault noneconomist Obama for his efforts to educate himself on economic issues? The alternative is to cede his authority to the ‘experts’, only to have parrot mouths like Sean Hannity say “He’s losing control — CAW! — he’s losing control…”
Wall Street Journal
* AUGUST 12, 2009
A President as Micromanager: How Much Detail Is Enough?
By NEIL KING JR. and JONATHAN WEISMAN
WASHINGTON — In briefing President Barack Obama one day this spring, White House economist Jared Bernstein delved into such arcana as the yields on different forms of credit relative to the risk. Later, Paul Volcker pulled Mr. Bernstein aside. “Why would the president want to know that level of detail?” asked the former Federal Reserve chairman.
“That’s what he wants,” Mr. Bernstein replied.
Many presidents have directed policy from on high, shunning the details of most issues. Mr. Obama has adopted a different style, particularly when it comes to economics, as he and his team wrestle with the worst financial crisis the nation has faced since the Depression.
…
In a White House ritual new with this administration, the president gathers with his advisers every weekday morning for an Oval Office update and debate on the economy. The breadth of topics is wide, from the underemployed to childhood obesity, and Mr. Obama often dives into the minutiae.
In the sessions, according to those who attend, the president sometimes chafes at his advisers’ limitations, quizzing them on points raised by critics or asking them to do justice to a view other than their own. At times he quotes from letters sent to the White House to counter a stance taken by his team.
A president’s management style can set the tone for an administration. Jimmy Carter was a famed micromanager, often at odds with his own advisers, and he caught a lot of Beltway criticism for his focus on policy details. “If the two risks are operating at too generalized a level or micromanaging, you need to find a balance between the two,” says Peter Orszag, the White House budget director.
Whatever the merits or flaws of Mr. Obama’s style, it sometimes has trouble translating with opponents, and the country at large. Following a smooth first few months in office, he has seen his agenda stall amid rising opposition, even from some members of his own party. His approval rating with the public in the latest Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll late last month was barely over 50%, down from 61% in April.
…
President Obama is getting down in the weeds rather than observing economic and other policies from way up high, potentially running the risk of becoming a micro-manager. WSJ’s Jonathan Weisman and Neil King report.
…
Robert Dallek, a presidential biographer, says Mr. Obama’s approach will be judged on the success of his policies. “If the economy makes a great comeback, people will say he had a grasp not only of the detail but of the broader picture,” he says. “If the economy doesn’t make a comeback, some of the same knocks laid on Carter could be laid on Barack Obama.”
…
Sounds like he’s trying too hard, trying too hard to be the exact opposite of the decider. Which in a funny way, reveals how the decider still casts a long shadow.
Clinton was viewed as a micro-manager, and largely it seemed to work for him (thanks in part to the economy’s endless boom from 1992-2000). By contrast, the last CIC who was viewed that way was Jimmy Carter, and it didn’t work for him (the economy was in trouble from 1976-1980 and beyond).
So I agree with the writer’s suggestion that the evolving economic picture will dictate Obama’s popularity. IMHO, the Obamanomics Team made the error of elevating expectations for recovery too early in his term.
IMO a great leader has to be BOTH a master of detail and a visionary. Which is why they don’t come along very often.
LHVG,
True, but the story reeks of a plant. The Admin. is plumbing the depths here to see if the public approves of this mgmt. style. Did any of us think that having access to PV’s private conversations was ‘that’ easy?
“The Admin. is plumbing the depths here to see if the public approves of this mgmt. style.”
Ha, I wonder if lil’ Opie can think & chew pretzels at the same time!
“….Mr. Obama has adopted a different style, particularly when it comes to economics, as he and his team wrestle with the worst financial crisis the nation has faced since the Depression.”
Poor little Opie…he suffers from the same early education teachings that my father impressed upon my still developing gray matter:
“Son there’s a difference between an “educated” guess and an “informed” decision…now quit your belly achin’ and get back to work.”
“I see… said the blind man as he picked up his hammer and saw…”
Wasn’t it the original J P Morgan who said, “Buy when everyone else is selling, sell when everyone else is buying”?
* The Wall Street Journal
* REAL ESTATE
* AUGUST 12, 2009
Feeling Roomy, J.P. Morgan Shops Its Space
Lender Seeks to Unload Properties Following Bear Stearns and Washington Mutual Acquisitions
By CHRISTINA S.N. LEWIS and ROBIN SIDEL
J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. is marketing 23 office properties across the nation in an effort to rid itself of excess space. But the bank’s timing, amid the worst property market in decades, means any sale is likely to come with sizable concessions.
The portfolio of properties for sale, with a combined 7.1 million square feet of space, includes four notable towers: One Chase Manhattan Plaza, near Wall Street; Four New York Plaza, also in the Financial District; the former headquarters of Washington Mutual in a downtown Seattle skyscraper that also houses the city’s art museum; and a landmarked 1929 Art Deco building in Houston, the former headquarters of Texas Commerce Bank.
…
No problem…Starwood will buy it with the $800 mil they just raised…
I guess that shows their faith in the future of commercial real estate. Do they have deflationary expectations overall?
I think they are going bottom fishing big time…The fact that they raised that much money in this environment indicates (at least to me) that that the banks are in big trouble the investors smell opportunity…
How is this “awkward role for the central bank” any different from myriad other awkward roles it is currently assuming?
Doesn’t former Treasury Secretary John Snow work for Cerberus? Certainly he knows the drill?
* WALL STREET JOURNAL
* COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE
* AUGUST 12, 2009
Fed Grapples With Extended Stay
BY LINGLING WEI AND JON HILSENRATH
The Federal Reserve, with $900 million on the line, is getting actively involved in the biggest hotel bankruptcy, an awkward role for the central bank as it tries to shore up the financial system.
On one hand, the Fed is clearly concerned that the bankruptcy of the 680-property Extended Stay Inc. chain has exposed major fault lines in the commercial real-estate market, which threatens to drag down the economy just as it is starting to show signs of recovery.
On the other, the Fed’s role is tricky because it is facing off against financial firms it has to deal with in other rescue matters. For example, Cerberus Capital Management LP is on the other side of hte Extended Stay bankruptcy, but the firm had to work closely with the Fed and the government in the bailouts of Chrysler and GMAC, which Cerberus controlled.
…
“you ever dance with the devil in the pale moonlight?”
Only if you believe my wife is the devil (I don’t…)
“The Federal Reserve, with $900 million on the line”…
$900 million, what a joke! The FED spends(wastes) more than this before breakfast.
Geez, how simple can it be…what you never heard of a Hotel-Bank before?
Zillow spokesman says housing bubble prices to return in 5 to 7 years.
http://finance.yahoo.com/real-estate/article/107508/4-signs-your-home-is-about-to-lose-value.html?mod=realestate-buy
Individuals who are staying put for at least the next five to seven years will likely recoup the lost value of their home, says Amy Bohutinsky, a Zillow.com spokeswoman. In addition, homeowners should refrain from borrowing against their mortgage, she says.
Now I’m really confused. How does one “borrow against their mortgage?”
hahaha…Yogi Berra would be proud of that one…
When ya get to the fork in the road, take it.
ROTFL
In five to seven years prices might regain *today’s* prices.
“Individuals who are staying put for at least the next five to seven years will likely recoup the lost value of their home”
Yep… if you take that perspective, the comment is accurate.
Got Popcorn?
Neil
“…Yogi Berra would be proud of that one…”
So Yogi’s wife sends him up the building to check out a new apartment she’s picked out to live in…Yogi soon returns…”Won’t work…I can’t sleep standing up”
(apt had a “Murphy bed”)
Bohutinsky?! No way!
So the Fed-engineered recovery is here already, less than 12 months after the global economy was brought to its knees by the meltdown on Wall Street?
This brings to mind a few questions:
1) What (if anything) was learned about root causes of the crisis?
2) What (if anything) was fixed in the way our economy is managed?
3) What (if anything) will be done to make sure we don’t soon see a repeat of this situation in a slightly different form?
My level of pessimism on all three questions is off the scale.
1. If you gamble, better gamble big enough so that you’re too big to fail in case the gamble doesn’t go in your favor.
2. We now have plenty of precedents how to take taxpayer money and divert it to Wall Street. We also have banksters in the highest positions of government (Geithner, Summers). Yes, this economy is “fixed” all right.
3. Nothing. It worked out great this time. I am sure the best and brightest on Wall Street are already busy engineering the next robbery. The vast majority of our politicians are very sympathetic to their cause.
The only challenge will to keep the mob calm. Shouldn’t be too difficult, extend unemployment benefits, cash for clunkers and free health care all paid for with borrowed money. Who cares when this country finally collapses as long as the elites are fat and happy.
“…extend unemployment benefits, cash for clunkers and free health care…”
You forgot to mention Dough-4-Dumps…
Cabbage for cottages.
Lettuce for lodgings.
The way I see it as long as there is still commercial on tv for “the scooter store”, we still are in big trouble. You know the one ” your hoveround scooter will be paid in full!” Scams still abound everywhere - Scams are at least 50% of GDP. I am looking for a used straight-jacket on craigslist.
Aren’t those places scamming Medicare? It still exists.
When my mother finally couldn’t walk anymore (she could barely stand for 15 seconds), my brother did the “legwork” to get her a motorized scooter. AFAIK she paid little or nothing for it.
AFAIK she paid little or nothing for it. If her condition was as you described, that’s fine by me.
Bill:
Then when she doesn’t need it anymore it should be mandatory you have to return it so it can be recycled to the next person who can’t afford to pay for it.
But alas..i see them on Craigslist for a couple of hundred bucks by the greedy kids/grandkids
1)Absolutely nothing
2) Awareness of how Wall Street works is now percolating down to Main street.
3) Everything we are doing will pretty much guarantee a repeat
This brings to mind a few questions none of which are being considered by Obama & his advisors.
What makes you think they aren’t aware of these questions? (Or were your sarcasm tags on and I just didn’t notice them?)
What makes you think they aren’t aware of these questions? Nothing in what they have done indicates they have the slightest awareness. “Never ascribe to malice that which is adequately explained by stupidity.” — Napoleon. I think he may have also said, “In politics stupidity is not a handicap.” Stupidity has nothing to do with education (or lack of same).
Why not profit from these predictable up and down market swings? It’s going to happen anyways — always has, always will.
The problem is the fact that swings will occur is predictable, the amplitude and duration of the swings is not; and that’s what’s needed in order to profit.
Create your own tops and bottoms. Take profits early and often. Never buy and hold. After gains, hand it over to a true believer. Minimize exposure to risk.
It’s a different mindset.
“…Never buy and hold.” That has to be the most “oversold” adage of all times!
You guys have really helped ol’ Hwy to reaffirm his “knuckleheaded” method of stock investment…I usually just buy x1 or x2 stocks throughout the year…usually when I think something “Ain’t necessarily so”…say like… Ford @ $1.83
I just keep saying: “Ford ain’t gonna die…Ford ain’t gonna die”…if they die, I’ll never use Tide detergent again!
Whacked, truly… Whacked!
“Create your own tops and bottoms. Take profits early and often. Never buy and hold.”
In other words “forget long term investment, just become a day trader”. No thanks.
Take profits early and often.
OK that works 50% of the time when the stock goes up after buying it. What about the other 50% of the time?
4) What was learned from the buildup and aftermath of the crisis?
Tentative conclusions:
I) Tremendous profit opportunities are created for financial firms who are well-positioned to exploit an unlevel playing field.
II) Ditto for financial firms who are well-positioned to profit from financial crises.
The situation reminds me of my career as a high school tennis player. I always took my challengers out on the court when the wind was blowing at least 20 mph. My experience enabled me to exploit their lack of experience with playing under bad conditions.
…What (if anything) was learned…
1) Nothing
2) Nothing
3) Nothing
4) Nothing
Human nature isn’t affected by mere experience.
Jerry West said that learning to dribble on a dirt basketball court in Cabin Creek, West Virgina…made him a better ball handler.
Oh, and Ozzie Smith…used to practice catching a small rubber ball of the alley wall…with a plastic alligator sandwich bag on his hand…guess that’s a good skill for a MLB shortstop.
There is a gargantuan deficit. It will take 800 billion a year to pay for the interest on it (as much as defense spending).
Government will continue to spend and grow the deficit till economic fundamentals dictate that it can no longer do so.
The politicians will continue to kick the can down the road until they can no longer do so. I think we’ll find out just how much of a deficit the world markets can tolerate eventually.
The bond market reacted badly earlier this year until there was much clucking and soothing talk from the Treasury and Fed. So, there seems to be some uncertainty bubbling just below the surface.
PB,
So the Fed-engineered recovery is here already, less than 12 months after the global economy was brought to its knees by the meltdown on Wall Street?
My level of pessimism is off the scale on this statement alone.
What flavor of alcohol did the Fed put in the punch bowl today?
LSD
Mr .Bear…forget “Global”…you gotta think “InterGalatically” …it makes more things more possible!…:-)
http://news.yahoo.com/s/space/20090812/sc_space/newfoundplanetorbitsbackward
La Fee Verte strikes again! EZ green has clouded the waters…
i don’t see the big deal.. Yesterday’s uncertainty was replaced by today’s certainty. It’s loss was recovered with today’s gains.
Here’s some pretty good evidence against retail inflation:
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2009/08/11/AR2009081103142.html
Jewel-Osco put up signs throughout their store advertising price reductions on hundreds of different products. They had been raising prices too fast and were getting ahead of themselves, I think. From what observed, the “reductions” just got the prices back to where they were this past winter/spring.
“Even Whole Foods has cut prices on key items…”
How do grocery stores distribute wholesome industrial grade food?
i didn’t see any price reduction on things in the basket at Costco.. kinda ticked me off that pistachios went up to the common price of $4 a pound. Pistachios stayed on the shelf… got peanuts and cashews instead.
Might be due to the pistachio scare a couple months back.. Costco sent me a letter 3 weeks later. “The pistachios you bought from us might be tainted and may kill or maim you. Bring them back if you like.” …..as if the tasty morsels last that long around here..
While high prices are annoying, they all know and keep track of every single thing i buy.. why doesn’t that bother me.
i didn’t see any price reduction Then you missed the large screen TV Best Buy was advertising this morning for only $9.99, marked down from $3,399.99. Then they refused to fill the many orders placed for it.
hehe.. yeah.. i missed it for sure.. wow.. printer’s gonna catch hell..
And people actually tried to buy at that price..
“Hey honey. The big TV we’ve been looking at is only $9.99. Grab your coat.”
Who will be the first with the lawsuit?
One way to balance your grocery budget in these tough economic times - add some horsepower to your protein intake:
MIAMI, Florida (CNN) — Geronimo was a beautiful painted quarter horse. Geronimo “was irreplaceable,” says the woman who owned him. “He was a type of horse that he got along with everybody,” says owner Ivonne Rodriguez. She had Geronimo for five years — until his slaughtered carcass was found under a tree.
For Geronimo, home was a 10-acre pasture in a rural area of Miami-Dade County. The horse, Rodriguez says, made many people happy over the years.
“He was ridden by everybody,” she says. “He was irreplaceable.”
Geronimo had a distinct look — brown and white, with a thick white stripe that ran from his forehead to his nose. It was this mark that helped a neighbor identify Geronimo after he was reported missing.
Someone is killing horses in Southeast Florida.
Since January, 19 horses have been reported butchered — 17 in Miami-Dade County and two in Broward County.
And that might be just a conservative estimate.
“That number is extremely low,” says Richard “Kudo” Couto of the South Florida Society for the Prevention of Cruelty to Animals. “There are many more slaughters in South Florida.”
Couto, an SPCA investigator, says many butcherings are going unreported by people who do not want to get involved with law enforcement. Police concede that underreporting of such animal cruelty crimes is a concern.
“In the majority of these cases, the carcasses exhibited signs of being slaughtered and dismembered, and the meat removed from the bodies,” Andress says.
Couto says the killing of horses for their meat is South Florida’s “dirty little secret.” But it is a secret no longer, with the number of reported horse deaths on the rise.
“At this point in the investigation, we’re attempting to confirm the existence of a black market demand,” Andress says. Law enforcement authorities say it may be premature to focus solely on a killing-horses-for-meat theory. But Couto believes that is exactly what is happening, and, he says, it has been going on for years.
The SPCA’s Couto says he knows firsthand that there is a black market for horse meat. He even quotes prices — a pound of horse meat might sell for anywhere from $7 to $20, with one recent report of $40 for a pound in Broward County.
The interest in the meat stems from cultural demand, according to Couto. The Miami area is a melting pot, he says, made up of many nationalities.
“In their country of origin, horse meat is legal to buy and eat,” Couto explains.
He also says people may be interested in horse meat because of a false belief that it will cure medical ailments such as AIDS or ease the side effects of chemotherapy.
Andress may not want to pinpoint a motive yet, but he does admit that killing the animals is not the perpetrator’s main goal. The goal comes afterward, he explains, with “whatever activity they engaged in postmortem.”
In some instances of the grisly “activity” to which Andress refers, the only evidence of a crime is a bare carcass left at the scene.
And yet the officials let it go on, “it has been going on for years. ”
Simply wow. I know for sure Oly
would be horrified to read that
article.
Bye-bye, Ownership Society. Hello, Rentership Society!
Aug 11, 2009, 10:04 a.m. EST
Why you should ask for lower rent
It’s a renter’s market, so get ready to negotiate that lease
By Amy Hoak, MarketWatch
CHICAGO (MarketWatch) — It isn’t easy to build up the nerve to ask your landlord for a reduction in rent. But these days having the gumption to renegotiate a lease is paying off as landlords struggle to find and keep tenants with good credit and a history of paying on time.
Ask Mike Haskins, a Raleigh, N.C., resident who recently was able to lower his rent. The vacancy rate had risen in his neighborhood after two other apartment complexes had been built. He knew that the complex in which he was renting wasn’t at capacity, and rent for a similar unit on the first floor was set at $650; his rent was $750.
“I felt like I had some power,” said the 24-year-old.
It took some pushing — and a threat to take his business elsewhere — but before long, Haskins made a deal. When he renewed his lease, his rent was $100 lower.
“It felt like it was the same experience you go through when getting a car. If you agree to the first thing they offer you, it’s probably not the best you’re going to get,” he said.
…
“It isn’t easy to build up the nerve to ask your landlord for a reduction in rent.”
That’s why it’s better to just pick up and move, and leave them with a hole to fill.
We just moved and our old landlords had a very hard time finding a new tenant. They’ve been renting the house where we lived since 1986. At one point she commented to me that no one from out of town had come to see the place, only locals. She took this to mean that not many people are relocating for work.
12% is better than nothing. I got a 12% reduction on my rent by asking for it at my Phoenix apartment. I did not have to ask my Los Angeles apartment management for a reduction. They gave me a 20% reduction and I did not anticipate it.
Tell me what you can lose by asking for a reduction!
I called my land lady and asked for 150 to 200 off (current rent is 1850).
she came back with $100m finally agreed to $150. I think I could have forced $200 off if I had negotiated hard.
This is on top of no rent increase in the last 4 years.
I’m in Toaks, CA
You got a good deal to keep $1800 more in 12 months than the previous.
Who said deflation is bad?
I’m sure it’s not a new idea, but it’s a new idea to me.
I was thinking this morning on my drive in to work about the discussion yesterday on the Fed, the currency, etc.
I think I have a base for a new currency that can’t be inflated and is flexible enough to work. It is also as eternal and easy to define as 24 carat gold.
The calorie or joule, a unit measure of work or energy expended. KIlo, mega, giga, etc. Every productive activity can be related pretty easily to this measure. The only thing the government could then vary is the reserve requirements for banks. How could this be gamed?
Fire away.
Wouldn’t that make the contribution to society of a hamster on a treadmill more valuable than those of Steven Hawking and the Dalai Lama?
No, because there would still be freedom to assign value. The point is that the basic unit of energy has a very well defined value which can’t be altered.
The hamster would have value as an object that could labor, but also as an object of affection on which one could expend excess capital from earnings.
Professor Hawking is valued at the efficiencies he could add to the system through his teaching and mind expanding books, etc.
There is great flexibility here, the main foundation being that the unit of measure can’t be degraded. Even if the power of the sun could be harnessed with 100% efficiency it wouldn’t degrade the currency, it would just make that much more wealth available to spread around the planet. You could say it is a variance on the petro dollar, but much more stable since energy can neither be created nor destroyed.
You could say it is a variance on the petro dollar, but much more stable since energy can neither be created nor destroyed.
Beauty.
You are the Dude.
Thanks, now if I only had minions to carry forth my evil plan.
“I think I have a base for a new currency that can’t be inflated and is flexible enough to work.”
“…but much more stable since energy can neither be created nor destroyed.”
(Hwy, turns the mirror to reflect the sun’s energy onto Dude’s face): “Don’t worry dude, I’m not creating or destroying “energy” I’m simply… redirecting it’s “usefulness”"
inflation = magnification
flexible = reflection
Right, and if we really could use the potential of the sun we’d have transmogrifiers and star trek crap and everyone would be wealthy without working. We aren’t there yet.
But a solar or ‘cold fusion’ breakthrough would destroy the whole system, right? So that might be a problem.
No, it wouldn’t because it would mean virtually free energy and allow all things energy intensive to become virtually free as well. Do you understand productivity?
Productivity- that’s when we work harder and make less, right?
So nearly free energy wouldn’t have an effect on an energy based currency? And King Midas’s touch wouldn’t have any effect on the gold market?
Unless you’re paying in actual cheeseburgers, there’s still that symbolic piece of paper that ’someone’ ’somewhere’ printed up. And they can print more…
Just like dollars, only dollars aren’t based on anything except faith right now. This system has a touchstone which is a universal constant. This makes inflation impossible. BTW, cheeseburgers are measured in a different kind of calorie FWIW.
How does it stop them from printing more paper notes?
Joule notes are no different than bank notes. They are bills payable. What stops them from inflating is the peg. We previously have had a gold/dollar peg. It is true that a government could depeg and devalue this the same as with a gold peg, but then they wouldn’t be real joules, would they? The thing that makes this different is that it is based on a readily measurable physical constant.
“…but then they wouldn’t be real joules, would they?”
That’s my point! Unless you’re carrying the ‘physical product’, you’re carrying a piece of paper. This paper may say it’s backed by a joule, but how do you know there’s a specific joule for each joule note? You don’t. You have to trust a ‘central bank’/issuer to actually have the product. So we’re back to square one. And joules would be a paricularly difficult thing to ’see’.
It is governed by the other end of the equation as well, which does not apply to gold, unless you want to assign to gold a value equal to the cost of it’s production which is variable. A joule is a joule.
Don’t take and wooden joules, unless they will produce a joule or required a joule to create. Are you getting it yet? The fed can do what ever the heck they want, they aren’t going to change the physical constant.
“A joule is a joule.”
And those trustworthy guys at the ‘printing office’ will never overprint that paper. And we can always be assured they’ll give us an accurate accounting of their base joules. Because those ‘central office’ types have proven so trustworthy so far. Or will joules also change human nature?
You must have missed the part where I said it is governed by the other end of the equation as well.
So the ‘other end of the equation’ governs the printers of the paper as well? That’s quite an ‘other end’. Does it carry a gun or some such thing?
Sorry dude - I’m with alpha on this one. While theoretically yes there is a finite amount of joules - the fact that the end user can’t hold a measurable amount of joules in their hand makes it a non-starer. At least PM’s are logistically possible to use as currency - joules/calories/whatever are just not.
Actually a far better system IMO would be to just simply declare a given set of numbers as a backing system - say 1 through 1 trillion. You have a given set of unique numbers at any time, and can add to it as you earn new numbers as traded from someone else. Then you can use some database to confirm that your numbers aren’t allocated to someone else. The measurement then is built in.
The big problem with such a system of course is starting it - how would you fairly allocate the numbers? I guess you could somehow do a net worth calculation on everybody in the world, and allocate accordingly. The problem though is that under this system if the set of numbers is static, then it causes deflation over time as the number of people and goods increases in the world, thus leading to hoarding. With PM’s you don’t have that problem, since new metals are mined at approximately the same rate as population growth. You could just allocate a new set of numbers to each person as they’re born, but that’s unfair since they didn’t work to earn the currency, and it would end up leading to a population explosion as parents have as many kids as they can to try and make money. There might be some other way to pump new money (numbers) into the system as population grows, but I can’t think of a way that would be fair.
In the end though such a system would still be a logistical nightmare. You’d end up with a completely discontinuous set of numbers, and so trying to verify that your numbers haven’t been double-allocated would be difficult. You really would have to just trust the central database, and the central database would have to be involved in every monetary transaction you make, so it could keep track of who currently owns each and every number. Very Orwellian/dangerous.
Can’t hold joules in your hand? Ever held a solar calculator, ever held a grapefruit. Energy is what makes the world go round for heaven’s sake.
I still am not explaining the “other side” of the equation apparently. The end user with not pay 10X joules for something that cost 1X joules to produce, unless he/she is a GF. Does that help? The joule is constant, it is what it is, it doesn’t change. The very fact that it can be produced by work means the quantity in circulation will rise and fall with the economy itself.
People think the government can create money, it only creates currency. Money is created by labor, intellectual or otherwise.
BTW calorie means calorie, the two different calories measure the same thing, and differ ‘only’ by an order of magnitude (1000?) if I remember my science book.
And I was referring to the former, not the latter, nitpicker.
you started it! you cast the first ‘BTW’
No problem, so far your advocacy has enhanced my first take that this is a sound idea, so TPTB will never adopt it.
Not scarce enough.
Productivity is exactly scarce enough to value the currency that measures it. In the broad economy the currency couldn’t expand faster than production grows. You could still have asset bubbles and misallocation of resources because the world is full of greater fools but the folks who produce and save wouldn’t be punished for the profligacy of said fools.
Did I mention this solves the minimum wage issue?
How? By paying you for each calorie burned? Then physical labor will pay better than ‘office work’. Oh, but the smart guys would get paid for their added efficiencies. Who determines that value? The market? Then the market might value physical jobs at a less than calorie for calorie level,no?
Sorry, it’s no better than gold as a value unit (worse actually due to its non-visibleness– and still divisible!) And still leaves the fact that you have to rely on a central bank to print up that symbolic paper. It’s easier to carry a unit of PM than a unit of energy.
Sorry, it’s no better than gold as a value unit
El Dudarino, correct me if I’m wrong, but wouldn’t it work like this:
A joule would be worth the least expensive method of producing it. I.e., gasoline-joule = drilling + pumping + refining + shipping, solar/geo-thermal*/wind-power-joule = production + transmission, etc.
Of course, each [power]-joule would have its own sunk costs.
Is this close?
*Pronounced “Gooey-Thermal” in honor of Oly’s return
No room for fudging the books there!
And a simple method of evaluation too! Just need a team of engineers and scientists.
This’ll simplify everything!
You get it Lavi, and yes, the value of goods would be the production cost + profit margin that the market will bear. As far as complexity, there are armies of cost accountants figuring out what things cost in dollars to produce every day, the difference is that the dollar is a moving target.
My rough guess is that today a joule is worth about 1/1000 of a penny. Just wait ’til we reach parity.
Would a joule not fluctuate with commodity/energy prices?
No, commodity and energy prices would fluctuate according to their cost, in joules, to produce. Sunk cost, depreciation, fuel, etc. It all is just an accounting excercise that is already being done daily.
Would a joule not fluctuate with commodity/energy prices?
Yes! Exactly. But that means it would be a “real” value instead of manipulated by governments, traders and speculators.
If energy gets cheaper, the joule is worth less. However cheaper energy means just about cheaper everything else.
I had been thinking that oil was what money should be pegged to, but pegging it to net energy itself is, well, genius*.
Unlike gold (or oil), it’s not a limited resource, either.
And, at the risk of stating the obvious, the world is heavily dependent on energy. Energy for food, energy for water, energy for manufacturing, energy for shipping.
I love it!
*Well, genius to my little brain, anyway, and I hope the real economists on this blog will weigh in.
I’d like the economists to weigh in as well, though I appreciate the naysayers as well, they really help focus on the issue.
I also realized that you wouldn’t even need to do away with the dollar or other fiat, you can just allow the currency markets to set the dollars/joule, again, with the joule as a constant.
That’s what I like about this blog. I always read stuff I can’t understand.
..Fire away.
The calorie or joule, a unit measure of work or energy expended…
Every productive activity can be related pretty easily to this measure.
ummm… Assuming a person’s brain might occasionally produce something useful, how would brain power work into the calculation?
Your idea, for instance, might prove to be extremely valuable. It might produce wealth beyond measure.
The brain consumes about 20 watts. That’s near 5 calories a second. I’ll guess your brain might have expended 6 or 8 calories generating this idea. So, you earned 8 calories by saving mankind?
That’s near 5 calories a second. I’ll guess your brain might have expended 6 or 8 calories generating this idea.
I’m dubious of those figures — 5 calories a second? That’s 300 calories a minute just in brainpower! The good news, I suppose, is that we could all eat a lot more bacon and ice cream …
A 20 watt bulb (or brain) burns 4.78117 calories per second, according to my handy little freeware convert program..
//
joshmadison.com/software/convert-for-windows/
(no www needed)
you gotta remember the food calorie is measured differently..
but, this is interesting..
“Although the brain accounts for less than 2% of a person’s weight, it consumes 20% of the body’s energy.”
“The average power consumption of a typical adult is about 100 W.”
“The human brain is only 2% of the weight of the body, but it consumes about 20% of the total energy in the body at rest.”
“…Even so, the brain when awake demands a greedy share of the body’s energy supply: thought weighing about 1/50 of the body total, it may use as much as 1/5 of all the energy that is consumed.”
“It’s well known that the human brain accounts for about 20% of the total oxygen consumption when a person is at rest, so let us assume that the brain accounts for 20% of the total body energy consumption.”
//
hypertextbook.com/facts/2001/JacquelineLing.shtml
(Various scientists - researchers)
Based on a 2400 calorie diet (Adapted from Yang)
2400 “food calorie” = 2400 kcal
2400 kcal / 24 hr = 100 kcal/hr = 27.8 cal/sec = 116.38 J/s = 116 W
20% x 116 W = 23.3 W
(So, roughly 20W is used by the brain)
Don’t get on the wrong side of this Nobel Prize winning idea, joey! The magic of the ‘indivisible’ calorie will solve all economic problems.
And of course no one in history has ever equated money with energy! Except a million other people, including me right here last night. But hey, he steals my old jokes too, so why shouldn’t he snatch a few of my lesser ‘ideas’ if they excite him so much? There’ll be plenty more shavings under my workbench for him to steal tomorrow.
Sorry, must have missed your post last night but I’m happy to see you are here today blasting away at your own good idea.
I mentioned in passing that money equals energy in a thread with you. I didn’t shout it from the rooftops like you, because I knew it to be an old idea. The next day you’ve developed this self-described brilliant answer to the world’s monetary problems- Money equals energy! We can make the calorie our new dollar! It’s immortal, perfect, and individual! And it’s only a unique idea if you have never done even the most rudimentary of research on money. Like say, looking in wikipedia.
Like I said, imitation is a sincere form of flattery, so I’m amused you’re so thrilled with my ideas (and jokes). I’ll produce more, so you’ll have plenty of ‘ideas’ for your future posts. Unless the Nobel Committee steals you away from us! Someone tell Krugman to watch his back- we got us an Einstein coming on!
The open market still functions and will still determine that the accountant makes 3.7X the day laborer. The market will adjust inequities as well but the adjustment is against a true standard, not consumable, minable, losable gold, nor promises by a central bank that their balance sheet is solvent.
If I save or create capacity to produce X joules/annum those will still be worth that amount 10 or 50 years down the road. If I am unwise and place 1000 joules into a 5% joule CD at Wamu and they go belly up either it is covered by FDIC or not, but at least it’s not subject to the stealth tax of inflation.
You want to really go wild? Don’t allow them to be banked.
The brain consumes about 20 watts. That’s near 5 calories a second. I’ll guess your brain might have expended 6 or 8 calories generating this idea. So, you earned 8 calories by saving mankind?
You’re looking at it backwards.
People who come up with money-making ideas now don’t get what the money is worth (gold, the full faith and credit of the US government) - they get money. All dude’s saying is that money will be pegged to something real and unalterable.
In other words, in the old days, you could trade your dollars for gold. With this plan, you could trade your dollars for raw energy - if that’s what you wanted to do, and no government could misrepresent what your dollar was worth because it would always be worth the cheapest joule(s).
Because it takes energy to produce just about everything we consume, this is perfect in so many ways.
You can’t run a factory or a car or a train on a lump of gold.
We always say that nothing can replace the dollar because there isn’t anything broad enough with enough usage and acceptance.
How many joules do you think there will be in a newton*meter 50 years from now?
a calorie is real and unalterable? In what sense? A calorie is an imaginary number. Actually there are at least 7 definitions of the value of a “calorie”
And the exact value of a calorie is difficult to determine in all cases… you need to start and end with exact temperatures which in itself is practically impossible.
…far more difficult than measuring a second or a minute. Time is nowadays pegged to the vibration of certain atoms and can be exactly determined.
——-
nope.. i don’t get it.. i don’t get how pegging the value of a dollar to an arbitrary number we have given some unit of energy will change anything.
Why can’t the PTB declare that although there are 178.2659 calories in one horsepower today, tomorrow there will be 200 cal in one official horsepower?
I’ll just ask the question again, how many joules will there be in a newton*meter 50 years from now?
You are correct that TPTB would never allow this system to stand. My conjecture is that it could stand as long as physical constants redefined. I think there are enough scientists in the world to keep that from happening.
*post kicker*
‘…The brain consumes about 20 watts.” ;–)
What!? my refrigerator bulb is 25 watts…wait as second…(Hwy, pours another glass of red red wine…) hey, can you recalculate that number… if alcohol is added? The solar rechargeable batteries on my calculator are dead, otherwise I just do it myself…thanks in advance!
One of my techs once fiddled with a calculator for a few minutes before bringing it to me to see if I could figure out how to change the battery.
It was solar.
(true story)
The question remains — are stocks a bubble, rising as a result of printed money (or its electronic equivalent) with nowhere else to go?
We are no up to a projected PE of nearly 17 on the S&P, even with a forecast of big increases in the E.
Anticipated future growth rate coupled with massive short covering are other reasons for the rally.
Unethical Larry is at it again..
Home prices fall a record 15.6%
Year-over-year prices may have fallen at a record pace, but there are signs of improvement.
Lured back to prime neighborhoods
NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) — Median home prices fell a record 15.6% during the three months ended June 30, compared to the same period in 2008, according to an industry report.
There is good news though: The survey from the National Association of Realtors reported the median home price rose 4% compared to the first quarter of 2009 — to $174,100 from $167,300.
The increase in median price was not a surprise, representing, as it did, the traditionally strong spring selling season. But the jump did offer the prospect that the worst of the price declines may be behind us.
“With low interest rates, lower home prices and a first-time buyer tax credit, we’ve been seeing healthy increases in home sales, which are a hopeful sign for the economy,” said Lawrence Yun, NAR’s chief economist..
http://money.cnn.com/2009/08/12/real_estate/record_home_price_fall/?postversion=2009081211
“Home prices fall a record 15.6%”
Buh, buh, buh I thunked the housing market had bottomed out???
And the recovery is always six months away…
Hold on folks, this roller coaster will take a dive this Fall/Winter.
Got Popcorn?
Neil
Gettin’ pretty near the top of the next hill, no?
Lol
We’re exiting the tunnel we were zooming through. The media reports on the light! This must be a good sign. Now the rollercoaster is about to dip down a steep grade into the pool. You know, the one near the park entrance that is meant to impress everyone who just paid their entry fee…
Cue the screaming…
Got Popcorn?
Neil
For the first time since we sold back in 2004, I actually showed my wife a back-o-the-envelope estimate of what it would cost for us to buy a San Diego home, based on current list prices of 4br homes in our area (anything smaller does not work for us). The sticker prices still look way too high to me, especially given how many sellers are in a long-term search for willing and qualified buyers.
4 bedroom in Rancho Bernardo !! OK 700K or 10x my income I’ll just let the old prop13 folks keep it after all they bought it for 120K and need the extra 580K for ..
their dumbass kid who is deep under water needs to get out and can’t take less than 700K but his parents will make it up in inheritance.
except I bet the Government will change inheritance tax soon. After all they have alot of bills to pay and can’t keep bailing out banks with the future earnings of our kids and there kids and etc.
“There is good news though: The survey from the National Association of Realtors reported the median home price rose 4% compared to the first quarter of 2009 — to $174,100 from $167,300.”
Got seasonal adjustments, Larry?
Download the NAR spreadsheets for some eye-openers.
The average Miami condo, $105K or about one-third the level of a year ago. For Phoenix $104K. Still to expensive? How about Vegas at $66.4K.
We’re getting to the point where life could be very good for seniors with lots of friends looking to retire somewhere warm, who didn’t HELOC.
You really need to buy a whole damn building in a condo, so you don’t go broke because others don’t pay the HOA dues. But if you got enough people together, I wonder how little per unit a bank would take for one if the whole thing would be off their hands.
In another year, it could be even better.
Keep in mind that it took over 20 years for Florida land prices to recover after the last bust.
2025 ought to be a good time to buy. Just about right for my retirement.
(Seriously)
money.cnn has the worst, facile reporting ever and the NAR must contribute quite substantially to their coffers.
Absolutely no depth to their reporting whatsoever. Sad for a magazine/site that touts itself as being economically savvy.
The post by ahansen yesterday was interesting.
On the one hand, I can see where “overproduction” has been obvious and wasteful in our recent history.
On the other hand, there is at least one example where overproduction of healthcare and public safety services in the United States certainly was beneficial.
For it’s not every day that an average citizen anywhere else on the planet gets a 100 mile emergency helicopter ride to a world class medical facility, staffed with incredible professionals, and receives hours of surgery.
I sincerely do hope I’m not hitting too close to home, but I feel that point had to be made.
For it’s not every day that an average citizen anywhere else on the planet gets a 100 mile emergency helicopter ride to a world class medical facility, staffed with incredible professionals, and receives hours of surgery.
One can certainly find that level of care in most or all of the industrialized world. On the other hand, the related bill wouldn’t run into six or seven figures in any of those places …
Maybe we should go back to the stone age and transport patients by mule and resurrect voodoo medicine.
Clearly our healthcare system is Numero Uno just the way it is. No changes needed here.
“Affordability” and “access” are code words for Communism.
Booga booga!
“Resurrect?”
People have been able to buy homeopathic products all along.
Homeopathic remedies are far from voodoo preparations.
“…For it’s not every day that an average citizen anywhere else on the planet gets a 100 mile emergency helicopter ride to a world class medical facility, staffed with incredible professionals, and receives hours of surgery.”
Provided that they have a home with “equity” $$$$ so that the can pay the soon-to-come x38 medical billings that will not be covered by their medical “insurance”…provided that they have “insurance”…because otherwise the “pain” of collection’s will something they’ll have to endure…long after they’ve been “healed”…
Beneficial to whom? My personal wealth has been seriously reduced by exploding health care costs & excessive expenditures on unnecessary wars, cops, firemen & emts.
I’m still wondering where these “exploding health care costs are?”
My health insurance premiums are $139 per month. I’m 50 years old, non-smoker, not obese, and into fitness & green teas.
My health insurance premiums are $139 per month.
Is that as an individual or employer-provided?
individual. I buy my on insurance. Also buy my own disability income insurance and dental insurance.
I buy my on insurance
Who do you buy your healthcare insurance from? That sounds likea pretty good deal. What’s the deductible?
You can email me if you don’t want to put it on the board.
thanks
No problem.
First, I have bought my health insurance through http://www.ehealthinsurance.com. I am using PPO, $5,000 deductible.
I shop around for the best price. You enter info whether you are a smoker or not, and so on. It produces a list ordered from lowest price. Several companies to choose from. Currently I’m with Assurant.
For the first 3 years as a contract engineer I bought health insurance through my job shop. It was out of my own pocket still. I stopped doing that after the Cigna one raised my premium substantially twice: From $250 per month to $350 per month and was about to go to $450 per month. WTF? That was the last straw.
Disability income ins. I may be getting a good or bad deal on it. I’m going to have to shop around on that one. It lasts until I’m age 67. I’m thinking eventually disability income insurance policies will be extended to last to age 73 or so, as people are living longer and more youthful lives (the nonobese, nonsmoker types).
First, I have bought my health insurance through http://www.ehealthinsurance.com. I am using PPO, $5,000 deductible.
Thanks!
$5,000 deductible.
Well - that’s why it’s so cheap.
However that’s exactly what I’d do if I didn’t have employer-provided insurance. I used to have a super-high-deductible plan from my employer about 15 years ago, and loved it. I actually got an extra $1000 so a year in extra pay for using it.
“…I’m 50 years old, non-smoker, not obese, and into fitness & green teas.”
Bill Russell (Celtics): “All I know about statistics is what my father taught me…He once knew of a 6′ 7″ man who drowned in 4″ of water.
But that’s only your premiums. How much of your taxes, and inflation, goes towards others’ health care?
In the U.S. health care is about 16% of GDP - roughly $7,500 per person. Yeah, it’s a lot.
“Crisis” is certainly in the eye of the beholder though, as you say. But don’t think it’s not hugely expensive.
50 years old and into fitness sounds like a skin cancer risk. If your unfortunate say goodbye to health insurance, can you say pre existing condition.
So, just put a big sign in your front yard that says
“not paying for cops, firemen, ambulance care or
hospital treatments, GO AWAY”
Now when someone needs help, they can legally drive right by.
They have been warned and relieved of their duty/obligations
to society.
Property Tax Increase touted as Property Tax Abatement:
Last night’s big story here was that the Chicago Public Schools are looking for another property tax hike. Daley promptly told them they’ll only get half of what they want. So, he then turned around and spun the reduced increase as an abatement - since it will be a reduction from the full amount intially requested.
Oh yeah, and things are really starting to fall apart on the streets here. Last night they shot a jogger a little north of my place. Yesterday afternoon two more dudes were shot a half mile south of my work. Also last night they raided a house I ride by twice a day - and found 26 firearms. Good thing Chicago has a gun ban, or they might have found 27!
Last night’s big story here was that the Chicago Public Schools are looking for another property tax hike. Daley promptly told them they’ll only get half of what they want.
Dat mayor is tryin’ to bugger us any which way he can. The county is still billions and billions of dollars in shortfall, and there’s still a $900 million projected deficit in the public schools’ 2010 budget.
Yessiree, the 2010 budgets at the state, county, city, CPS, and who knows what else, are already a shambles.
The most unsettling part of the story, however, is the revenue forecasts they are using.
+1
In Cali, every time the controller comes out with the new quarterly revenue projection it has caused them to need a new budget!
Chicago is having serious issues, kids being shot all over the place, now joggers.
Remind me not to visit till the olympics.
A recent story in The Reader reported that Chicago was running last for 2016. On local blogs it seems the popular sentiment is that this distraction needs to end and resources redeployed to public safety.
A recent story in The Reader reported that Chicago was running last for 2016.
That is fantastic news! Losing the bid would be great for this town.
Here’s the short of my Hoboken story: I lived in a historic building that was falling apart. I complained to the city and the owner and was ignored. I started photographing and documenting everything and went nuts. People started listening… several people in city hall passed along my name to certain people with a financial interest, and they started “courting” me. The first time was when I was walking my dog. No chit, out of nowhere this dude says my name and says he wants to talk to me. I knew then things were delicate, because this freaking thug got my name and description from city hall. I didn’t budge and operated in total transparency, which is not Hoboken-stlye. I had moved out right before the building was condemned, so I was not part of the settlement, but I had all of the documentation.
It was the first case of its kind because the city cut checks to the residents. My argument was that they weren’t enforcing code. The residents didn’t win, but they got paid. I’m not sure how that was worked out; I simply filled out an affidavit and gave my docs to the attorney representing the residents.
There was a week or that I truly feared for my safety. There’s so much more to this, maybe I should sit down and write a book about after grad school.
Wow, you’re a brave soul! Good you got out alive and with your kneecaps intact.
Oh and as for your book, did you get a check as well? If so, look at your records and see if non-disclosure was part of the deal. I’d be surprised if it wasn’t.
Yeah, my neighbors cannot discuss it, but that’s the beauty - I never received a check because I had already moved out. I can say whatever I want. And the best part is it is all true. I had/have nothing to hide. I was just trying to live.
The first guy that approached me on the street was feeling me out. I have no doubt that I could have received cash to be quiet. I told him I wasn’t interested in talking and that I just wanted the building fixed.
Anyway, the building was the Clam Broth House. The wikipedia entry covers it enough for now.
Thanks Muggy. I am glad you posted this from yesterdays start.
This is your American Novel.
I can see you now on Jon Stewart. Good interview subj.
“I can see you now on Jon Stewart.”
And we’ll all be in the audience!
“write a book about after grad school”
Don’t worry PB, I’ll have someone else proof it.
I’d like to report that loans are plentiful and easy to get, despite the moaning you may have heard about tightening credit. Yesterday we looked to get set up for a loan and it took less than two hours.
So anybody out there whining about getting a loan being hard, you’re full of it. Just follow these three easy steps :
1) Save up a 20% down payment.
2) Save up reserves above and beyond that down payment.
3) Apply for a loan who’s outstanding balance will be LESS that 3.5 times your documented yearly income.
If you follow these three steps, you’ll have no trouble getting a loan.
“If you follow these three steps, you’ll have no trouble getting a loan.”
That sounds like step one to finding out one’s household budget limit for a home purchase. Step two is finding homes you are willing to purchase for whatever budget limit is determined in step one. Step three is finding at least one seller of a home in this group who is willing to sell to you at or below your budget limit.
Good luck to most of us at clearing all three of these hurdles! (Trust fund babies have nothing to worry about…)
Sorry, that won’t work in the Bay Area (Northern California). Sellers are crazy here. Income already spent, Savings is non-existent, Housing prices still 8-10 times income.
It absolutely works. Finding a house that fits into your budget might be hard still. I’ve watched houses in San Mateo county falling quite a bit. The crappy areas are down 50-60% (EPA and East Menlo) and the nicer non-palo alto areas are following behind, albeit slowly.
It’s still cheaper to rent than to own, but the spread is narrowing.
My theory is that these town hall disruptions are the first of many Boomer Swan Songs.
Muggy - you reminded me of something. I was thinking about the health care “crisis” this morning and it got me wondering:
1) Is it simply circumstance that the original attempt to solve the the “crisis” under the first Clinton administration was shot down during the peak earning years of the Boomer generation?
2) Is it simply circumstance that the second attempt to solve the “crisis” comes as the first of the Boomer generation begins retirement and a period of self-funded health insurance?
3) Is it simply circumstance that the “crisis” only became a “crisis” on a national scale as the Boomer generation stood to benefit the most from resolving the “crisis”; as opposed to others?
Crisis? What crisis? See my post above in response to this so-called “exploding health care costs.”
There is a reason I put crisis in quotes.
Originally Roosevelt was going to fix this. It wasn’t Clinton’s originally.
Keeps getting shot down by corporate elitists and republicans.
1930s to 2009+……….
Mankind has had an efficient health care plan since the beginning of time courtesy of nature, God, etc…. whatever you believe in. It goes like this, “If you get sick enough YOU DIE!”.
The remaining population is better off as the less hearty have died off. Our gene pool is no doubt polluted with individuals who should be dead. Not only are they alive, but they are allowed to reproduce.
Antibiotics are just one example of a measure we shouldn’t take when people get ill.
I agree 100%.
Really? Then why are you talking up your own insurance plan?
TEE HEE !! I love it! Plus, I agree with it!
Not Crazy
Sweetie,
It won’t only be the Boomers Swan song.
LOL, note that I did say “one of many.”
I’m sure there will be riots when Harley-Davidson goes BK.
Boomer Swan Songs
Yowch! Speaking as a boomer, Muggy, if I turn into one of those yo-yos, euthanize me.
Hey, not to worry, eveybody under 40 right now can explain for the rest of their lives why it was their choice to quadruple the national debt in 90 days, pass trillion dollar bailout bills for the already rich, throw out the Constitution in favor of ACORN chants, and applaud Congresspeople who were too busy taking bribes and stuffing their bank accounts, to read any of the bills they passed in the name of “change”.
Try explaining to future generations why you were so anxious to eliminate personal responsibility, freedom, and control from the citizens in favor of Big Government.
Try explaining to future generations how being a “neo-progressive” in 2009 America was any different from being a National Socialist in 1933 Germany.
The baby boomers can always be blamed as a bloc for whatever happened during their time at bat.
The same is true for the current inning. So far no hits, no runs, many errors, home team looking at being shut out.
Godwin’s Law
You remind me of the first flight I took post 9/11, November 2001. I was reading “The Rise and Fall of the Third Reich” for my own reading. I wanted to learn how an educated and realtively free population could allow the rise of the Third Reich. I figured it could be useful.
Eight years later, I kinda wish I took better notes.
I find the boomer-baiting really unproductive. Rest assured that many boomers are just as unhappy about the state of current affairs as are Gen X, Y, ZZ Top and whatever else. I think Mike and the Mechanics (spinoff of Genesis) had a great lyric from the song “In the Living Years”.
“Every generation
Blames the one before
And all of their frustrations
Come beating on your door
I know that Im a prisoner
To all my father held so dear
I know that Im a hostage
To all his hopes and fears
I just wish I could have told him in the living years”
Amen, and the song always made me cry. Dad didn’t get to see me clean.
“I find the boomer-baiting really unproductive.”
Well, I think it is a legitimate piece of this huge CF puzzle.
CF?????????????????????????
Boomer-baiting is a part of the puzzle? Well, bait away, then and have your little puzzle, if it makes ya happy.
Naw, I mean the Boomer component is an important piece.
Wow - I bow before thee thrice on the Mike and the Mechanics reference, your knowledge of them as a Genesis spinoff, and your nifty ZZ Top work-in. A nice segue.
(though that’s a really lame song I have to say)
Here’s something that might help…with this “orientation” phenomena:
“True Believers” by Eric Hoffer
throw out the Constitution in favor of ACORN chants
I missed that one. Was that the day I spent all day gardening and watching Buffy?
Amen CB.
“Muggy, if I turn into one of those yo-yos, euthanize me.”
Everyone has their own idea what the final years should be, but it bugs me that Boomers want to “redefine” retirement and “fight” aging and so on.
Am I the only one looking forward to drinking in the morning, napping all day, wearing goofy hats and crappy flannels?
Muggy: Right there with you. Heck, a few things I learned working in Australia:
1) A floppy Kangaroo leather hat is SPF 50 (yes, I still have it. Mrs. Chile calls it “the dork hat”.)
2) It isn’t that you’re drinking early in the morning. It is just that it is really, really late from the night before.
3) Flannels? Nope. You’re own your own on that one. But I’ll still grab a beer for you at 8.00am late at night.
Hey Bad, how is Lil’ Chili doing?
He’s doing great, thanks for asking! Sleeping. I’m having a beer after playing guitar for an hour at lower than “rock ‘n’ roll” volume. He’s a stubborn, happy-go-lucky onery little dude. I’d like to think “like me”, but that would be egotistical, methinks.
Good to hear Chile.
No, you are not.
After my friend Al retired, people kept saying things like “and I bet you’re busier than ever, aren’t you?” He replied, “No. I hang around the house reading A LOT and try not to spend money or drive more than I absolutely have to.”
He seems to be quite enjoying himself. I help keep him in magazines through gift subs.
Everyone has their own idea what the final years should be, but it bugs me that Boomers want to “redefine” retirement and “fight” aging and so on.
Boomers won’t be able to retire in the numbers and wealth the 2 generations before them did.
Not generations I meant parents and older siblings. Think about this the retirees right now are wealthier than the kids 20-30 years old, never before in US history has this happened.
Source ” the fourth Turning” by Strauss
I think the crisis this book predicts every generation and due 2005 will be a re-distribution of the nations wealth from old wealthy to younger poor ? Ask Obama about this and it won’t help that many wealthy older folks are white and many poorer younger folks are not.
anyway the boomers will get less in entitlements because the social security ponzi game will be up soon. That was the distribution of wealth from the nations wealthier young to the nations poorer old back in the day.
the retirees right now are wealthier than the kids 20-30 years old, never before in US history has this happened
you sure?
“crapping flannel”
Metamucil helps with that.
LOL - looks like the PTB are getting desperate. The latest pump-it-up scheme is the back-to-school season. $175M of free money!
Betcha the $35M ends up being an excellent investment for Soros.
Wow… two uniforms and two backpacks and its “Thank God for Obama. He’s looking out for us.” Lady, you sold your vote way to cheap.
OTOH, since no one is monitoring how folks spend the money (just heli-ed it into their account), I’m going long Altria and Anheuser-Busch.
I’d also look at Pepsico.
I predict “better-than-expected” back-to-school sales, as further evidence that green shoots are taking root.
Wow! If that ain’t bread and circuses…what is? If $200/kid gets this response, then $500/kid might just buy Georgie & Co. their own personal army.
“Rogoff on Money news.com street talk:
“Commercial real estate is a tsunami coming that’s going to wipe out a lot of the small banks,” he said. “It’s unclear if any big players will be stressed out by it, which will depend on how the economy is doing.”
Rogoff also said the United States will need to raise taxes soon as debt levels swell and interest rates rise. He expects to see a national sales tax in three years.
“People just don’t understand how much taxes are going to have to go up on the current trajectory we’re on,” he said. “People are still on the high that the government can back everything and not seeing what the costs are.”
But hey, MSM says we’re fine then we’re fine!
If I actually got something for my taxes, then I wouldn’t complain so much (like healthcare for example). Of course, getting a job would be even better then I can actually pay taxes.
BTW - didn’t get that job where the VP fell asleep during the interview. Surprise, Surprise!
BTW - didn’t get that job where the VP fell asleep during the interview. Surprise, Surprise!
Sorry to hear that.
It’s one thing to be out of work - I know, I’ve been there - but it’s another to be out of work during the biggest damn deprecession in decades.
Scoring an interview is such a bright spot that to have it end like that is worse than disappointing, it’s downright criminal.
Hang in there, Pot. Buyer
Thanks Lavi. Just a matter of time, I know but…….
I had to ponder something here while I was talking to Shwab and debating what to do with my 401k — roll it over, stay as is, transfer to E*trade, etc. - and one thing struck me.
For those folks laid off and swiftly going through every penny they have trying to survive, while banks are getting bailed out and buyers of cars are getting a nice little hand up — why the hell hasn’t the penalty for early withdrawal of 401k funds been temporarily removed for people receiving unemployment? Surely that HAS to be a hardship?
why the hell hasn’t the penalty for early withdrawal of 401k funds been temporarily removed for people receiving unemployment?
That’s not a bad idea.
Of course, if I think something’s a good idea, it’s probably the last thing you want to have happen…
i remember that you wanted it..
well, if it’s any consolation, some of my best times have been due to apparent failures and setbacks. Seems like there are times when something better is waiting for you and life won’t allow you to settle for less.
“…didn’t get that job where the VP fell asleep during the interview. Surprise, Surprise!”
Maybe he fell asleep over-worked/stress… something else, better, will come along… (Hwy crosses his fingers)
Thanks for your support all.
I posted about my 401k and I think it got swallowed by the language police. I dared to use the word h*ll.
Anyway, apologies for double post — but I AM teed off about banks being bailed out, ‘house lowners’ being bailed, car buyers getting theirs. I want mine. I want no penalties on my 401k IF I have to withdraw any funds (hopefully that won’t happen). But to me, that would be a hardship and living in Silicon Valley - well, that UI money doesn’t stretch too far!
I think its my day to grumble. I have to do this every so often for my sanity.
It’ll be interesting to see how the FED tackles CRE. Not sure how the big banks can be bailed out when the little banks are allowed to go under. How does that work?
“How does that work?”
Megabank, Inc is biggering and biggering and biggering… and it is more systemically important than ever!
“People are still on the high that the government can back everything and not seeing what the costs are.”
Why do some macroeconomists believe in the power of the printing press technology to overcome budget limits while others do not?
Looks like the relentless war on savers continues. Fed to savers, Screw you!
I think Ben Bernanke will be reappointed. He signaled that interest rates will be close to zero which congress wants and Ben wants the free limo rides and executive dinning. All parties are happy. The deal is done.
Ben reappointed.
Fed Holds Rate Steady and Moves to End Debt Buying
WASHINGTON — Almost exactly two years after it embarked on the biggest financial rescue in American history, the Federal Reserve acknowledged on Wednesday that the economy was pulling out of its downward spiral and announced a step back toward normal policy.
Though the central bank stopped well short of declaring victory, policy makers issued their most optimistic assessment in more than a year by noting signs of stabilization in household spending, financial markets and inventory building by corporations.
“Economic activity is leveling out,” the Fed board said Wednesday after a two-day meeting.
In the statement, the fed also said that “the committee expects that inflation will remain subdued for some time.”
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/08/13/business/economy/13fed.html
“Moves to end debt buying”
Good luck with that Benny.
Geez, not a single word about “Administration”…how odd. :-/
“…No doctors will be eliminated, Anderson said.”
Kaiser is laying off 650 in Southern California:
August 12th, 2009, by Mary Ann Milbourn OC Register
hwy, interesting again that admin always gets the axe last, or not at all.
Wow. So the bond market had already priced in BB’s decision to extend Fed purchasing of Treasuries for another month. How did they gather this intelligence? Does someone follow him to the grocery store and analyze his cereal purchases? Does someone bug his bedroom to hear what he says in this sleep? In any case, I guess the green shoots are so clearly abundant that we need to juice the market for one more month. And it’s probably time for BB to scold Congress again about deficit spending causing inflation.
So the bond market had already priced in BB’s decision to extend Fed purchasing of Treasuries for another month.
The program’s just being stretched to a longer timeline - they said they still only plan to purchase $300B though, none additional.
Rest assured, there is no bubble in China’s stock market, because this Legg Mason analyst says so. Ignore the 71% hyperbolic price runup, and hurry up and buy some Chinese stock shares before you are priced out forever!
CHINA | Emerging Markets
Bubble fears — popped
Crystal Chan, Hong Kong-based portfolio manager at Legg Mason, explains why she thinks even a 71% rally in China’s A-share market isn’t a bubble.
Link didn’t work. The video is accessible from the marketwatch dot com home page…
Crystal Chan, Hong Kong-based portfolio manager at Legg Mason
Don’t they make pantyhose that comes in a jar?
Plastic EGGs
Alfred Hitchcock calling…
“Crystal Chan, Hong Kong-based portfolio manager at Legg Mason, explains why she thinks even a 71% rally in China’s A-share market isn’t a bubble”.
Right you are Crystal, there is no bubble, there never is, only a little froth from time to time. We know ‘investors taking some profit’. Now tell us, how much selling have you been doing Ms.Chan?
On this side of the pond insider selling just keeps going on at lofty levels, probably because there is no bubble, and the market is not over bought.
I can’t imagine a portfolio manager saying anything else. Well, 99% of them.
Is her middle initial M.?
Crystal Meth Chan!!!! TEE HEE !!!!!!!
Wow, the good news is all over the place!
U.S. Posted Record Year-to-Date Budget Gap in July
Aug. 12 (Bloomberg) — The U.S. budget deficit reached a record for the first 10 months of the fiscal year and broke a monthly high for July as the recession curbed revenue and the government ramped up spending to rejuvenate the economy.
The shortfall so far for the fiscal year that ends Sept. 30 totaled $1.27 trillion compared with a $389 billion year-to- date gap in 2008, the Treasury said today in Washington. The excess of spending over revenue for July climbed to $180.7 billion compared with a $102.8 billion gap in July 2008 as the government spent more than in any month in U.S. history.
Tax receipts are sliding and spending is surging even as some economists say the recession may have ended. The government is trying to spark business and consumer spending through a $787 billion stimulus plan spanning tax cuts, infrastructure projects and a goal to create or save 3.5 million jobs. President Barack Obama also is pushing a health- care overhaul that may cost $1 trillion over a decade.
“Spending is bound to increase as the year goes along” and money from the stimulus package is distributed, said Stan Collender, managing director of Qorvis Communications in Washington and a former U.S. House and Senate Budget Committee analyst. “That’s good news given the state of the economy. You want to do that, to get the recovery going.”
“Spending is bound to increase as the year goes along” and money from the stimulus package is distributed, said Stan Collender, managing director of Qorvis Communications in Washington and a former U.S. House and Senate Budget Committee analyst. “That’s good news given the state of the economy. You want to do that, to get the recovery going.”
ATE-UP is Stupid, but…Is that the craziest shit ya ever heard, or what?
ATE-UP is Stupid, but…Is that the craziest shit ya ever heard, or what?
It’s spelled $hit.
Mini-chile is startin’ to babble, and nothing he’s said is nearly as dumb as that.
“Household debt as a percentage of disposable income hit a low of about 2% just at the end of WWII. It’s been going up ever since. By 2005 it nudged against 15% – seven times higher than it had been 60 years earlier. Household debt represents spending that has been taken from the future. But you can’t take an infinite amount from future earnings. You reach a point when the future can’t handle it. As more and more future earnings are absorbed by past consumption, pretty soon there’s not enough left to live on. At some point, so much of earnings are devoted to paying the interest and principle on past borrowings that the poor householder cannot to pay his expenses. And imagine what happens if his disposable income goes down.”
Bill Bonner points out that if the private sector undertook to reduce debt back to 2000 levels, it would mean eliminating all the debt accumulated during the bubble years – or about $19 trillion. How long will it take to pay down, write off, inflate away and otherwise shuck $19 trillion? Well, inflation is running below zero – so that is not now a source of debt reduction. Between write-offs and pay-downs, about $2 trillion has already been cut – over, very roughly, the last 2 years. At least the math is easy. At that rate, it will take 19 years.
..inflation is running below zero ..
meaning.. deflation?
So, the $19T (or $17T remaining) need not be payed down? According to the author, nobody starves as long as the debt load doesn’t rise above the ability of those in debt to pay their monthly bills.
I wonder at what point people would actually begin to die due to cumulative debt.. $25T? $50T?
Do I hear 60T, 70T, going once going twice, sold to the joey in the corner.
“meaning.. deflation?”
Only insomuch that the numbers are being reported using increasingly devalued dollars.
Two points:
- Given that there has been no significant move to reduce outstanding debt since WWII - even as a percentage of GDP - I wouldn’t expect one to start now.
- Yeah perhaps the private sector can reduce debt for a short while, but right now the government is more than making up for it. $1.84T in just one year for the Federal government alone, in fact.
Lake Champlain in the Adirondacks may have PCB’s, but for the champagne of poison beaches, go to France:
British Holidaymakers Warned of Toxic Seaweed in Northern France
As of right now, many British holidaymakers are being told to stay away from beaches located in northern France. These warnings have been issued due to toxic fumes that are being given off by rotting seaweed. This problem has now led to one area of the beach at Saint Michel en Greve in Brittany to be shut down. The beach was shut after a horse rider lost consciousness and his horse died after being exposed to the fumes.
A member of the French Institute of Sea Research and Exploitation, Gilles Youenou, said that they advise people to avoid these beaches. The seaweed is giving off hydrogen sulphide fumes. This can be the result of a problem with agriculture. He noted that Nitrates have gotten into the water and polluted it.
Gilles Youenou went on to say that normally a crust forms over stacks of rotting seaweed. When the crust is broken, fumes are released. These fumes can be particularly lethal to dogs, as well as other animals. This helps to explain why the horse was killed.
A spokesman for the French environmental group Eau et Rivieres said that toxic seaweed has been found on the beaches of Brittany for quite some time. Now the problem seems to be spreading. He noted that there are already almost five beaches that are unusable, and the problem is just getting worse.
Eau et Rivieres says that almost 70,000 cubic meters of seaweed has to be cleared off from 70 beaches every summer in Brittany. The Lannion hospital in Brittany has said that the hydrogen sulphide is as dangerous as cyanide. The hospital has already treated many cases of poisoning caused by the seaweed among local residents. This included one council worker who was paid to clear beaches of algae. The woman was found in a coma.
(From S. Parker, Travel News, UK)
We get a milder version of this here in West Central Florida with the red tide phenomenon. People just about hack up a lung at some of the beaches in the Sarasota area.
Hey Palmy Oly is back, did you know?
Aw, shucks, yep, I saw. I know she makes ya happy, ATE, and that’s a good thing!
We no longer stay on Siesta Key when we visit Sarasota in the winter. I’m not allergic to much of anything, but in less than a quarter mile walk up the beach I develop a persistent cough.
Remarkably, the press and the tourism people never mention Red Tide.
It affects a lot of people the same way, Bill. Not a good thing, IMO.
That’s gotta be from global warming.
Have you heard the good news? OLY GAL is back. I e-mailed her to tell her how glad I was, (something I wouldn’t normally do, but, what the heck, it’s from the heart and she is a friend on teh blog). I am glad she is back, and hope she didn’t get hurt too much.
I am so glad Oly Gal is back, I just love arguing with her and getting her peed off. It makes me happy, selfish maybe, but I think I am speaking for a lot of others here too. Nice. Happy time!!!!
It makes me happy, selfish maybe, but I think I am speaking for a lot of others here too. Nice. Happy time!!!!
Enjoy being battery! Enjoy providing power for! Nine volts power! Last very long! Keep providing power until die! Give power and power and more power until cannot give power anymore! Enjoy very much giving power!
The Onion
That was over my head lavi, but I am still happy.
Hell, I even read the article and still don’t get it! I am stupid!
Hell, I even read the article and still don’t get it! I am stupid!
Nah. It’s just a cute example of boundless joy.
Just to check your cute/joy quotient, visit:
http://www.icanhascheezburger.com
Look at the mean Kittys!! Cute really, but I am a dog guy, or…a geo-duck guy. (Now that Oly Gal is back, of course.
Oly? How do you spell, I missed you!
The Social Security Administration has agreed to pay more than $500 million in back benefits to more than 80,000 recipients whose benefits were unfairly denied after they were flagged by a {defective} federal computer program, officials said Tuesday. In addition, more than 120,000 recipients who were denied benefits before 2007 are eligible to apply for reinstatement. As part of the enforcement of a 1996 law, the administration began searching computer databases, and captured ‘dozens of criminals.’ I guess the over 200,000 innocent victims of the computer search were the inevitable false-positives, collateral damage. Not to worry, some of them are probably dead already.
“…Not to worry, some of them are probably dead already.”
Yes, but if listen to “experts”, their advice is that you wait until your 86 before you start to collect!
Too late for Buttle, however. Or was it Tuttle?
Wow. How weird. You would think if you had paid into the system, you should be able to collect no matter what. Surely its the ‘paying’ that should matter, not your actual crime - which has nothing to do with SS.
Dang, I feel I’ve been in “class” all day today…(Hwy pours a glass of wine)… Olygal is alive & and in recuperation, the planet is still 8 minutes from cast sunlight and spinning along merrily, it still requires x2 incomes for most American families to purchase a “home”, there’s still enough “unfound” gold to keep aladinsane in the black, a meteriote hasn’t hit “The Flag” and put Ben out of business, Mr. Bear still has the inspiration to acquire yet another weekly “Eeyore Award”, how could things end any better, except possibly/if Sarah “The Barracuda” invited Oct-o-mom & the “kids” up to Alaska when she announces that she’s pregnant and doesn’t know who the father is…!
+1
‘…it still requires x2 incomes for most American families to purchase a “home”…’
I was trying to gently explain that to my lovely wife last night. She works enough to bring in a second income, except it is mostly volunteer work. Most San Diegans can only hope to ever own a home with two household incomes. (And that third income back during the bubble helped lots of households live in really big houses!)
yes its expensive here in S. CA to me it seems as though home prices haven’t droped a bit from 2006 when I left.
And now they are headed back up they say……..
Are you looking at list prices or sale prices? Remember that list prices are the prices of homes that are priced to high to have already sold. Some list prices are so high the homes may never sell before going back to the lender…
…too high to…
Wall Street Journal
* AUGUST 12, 2009, 11:39 A.M. ET
CORRECT: Median US Home Prices Fall In 2Q; Sales Up From 1Q
(”Median US Home Prices Fall In 2Q, Sales Pick Up From 1Q - NAR,” published at 11:25 a.m. EDT, misstated the group’s name. (Was the incorrect name the National Association of Used Home Sellers???) A corrected story follows.)
Foreclosures and short sales again weighed down median home prices in most markets as prices continued to decline during the second quarter, according to data from the National Association of Realtors.
Home prices have dropped steadily during the credit crunch, though recent figures have shown that might be turning around amid a deceleration in the rate of decline in some markets. The S&P Case-Shiller home-price indexes recently posted their first month-to-month increase in nearly three years.
First-time buyers accounted for one-third of all purchases in the second quarter as 129 of 152 metropolitan areas reported lower median existing single-family home prices year over year.
The national median fell 16% from a year earlier to $174,100, the association said. Distressed homes, which accounted for 36% the deals in the quarter, typically sell for 15% to 20% less than traditional homes, skewing the median prices.
…
Back to JoeyinCA’s point again, are we? Why would a distress home sell at any given time and place for any less than a nondistress home of identical quality?
A better explanation is that only sellers in distress would sell under current distressed market conditions.
..only sellers in distress would sell under current distressed market conditions…
I like that… All sales are distressed.
While some passengers might be able to swim and some not, when all are abandoning ship by leaping over the rail, all are distressed.
It’s down to the question of which passengers on the Titanic are wealthy enough to merit a seat in a life raft, and which are not.
So…appraisers should ignore the few, isolated cases of non-distressed sales.. and base valuations on the remainder.
This they might do by looking at.. what? What factor(s) confirms that a sale is certainly not distressed?
“Distressed homes, which accounted for 36% the deals in the quarter, typically sell for 15% to 20% less than traditional homes, skewing the median prices.”
More like 90% of all sales in Miami. Stil, the county ignores 90% of the market when it comes to tax valuations.
And yes, there’s always that one sucker that still pays 2006 bubble prices even in 2009, in the process keeping tax valuations high. I wonder if the county is cooking the books on that. Nobody can be that dumb. I mean $500K for a 1800 sqft 2/2 in a nice (buy not great) n’hood.Similar foreclosures sell for $150 - $200 which I consider high. Most would require $50K in upgrades but still…
Given that the recovery is already underway (according to the majority of an unbiased sample of WSJ-surveyed economists), how come the Fed has not already lifted its emergency measures?
Financial Times
Fed holds steady on emergency measures
By Tom Braithwaite in Washington and Michael Mackenzie in New York
Published: August 12 2009 19:26 | Last updated: August 13 2009 01:22
US Federal Reserve policymakers said on Wednesday that “economic activity is levelling out” and gave no indication that they would step up emergency measures adopted to stimulate the flow of credit.
The Fed said that it “anticipates” completing its planned $300bn Treasury purchases by October – a month later than expected – but there was no echo of the Bank of England’s decision last week to expand its government debt-buying programme. The plans are a way to ease monetary policy even when interest rates are close to zero.
…
Higher education bubble has popped…
States cut aid to college students as demand booms
By RYAN J. FOLEY, Associated Press Writer Ryan J. Foley, Associated Press Writer – Wed Aug 12, 9:48 am ET
MADISON, Wis. – Struggling with budget shortfalls that reach into the billions, several states are making deep cuts in college financial aid programs, including those that provide a vital source of cash for students who most need the money.
At least a dozen states are reducing award sizes, eliminating grants and tightening eligibility guidelines because of a lack of money. At the same time, the number of students seeking aid is rising sharply as more people seek a college education and need help paying the tuition bill because they or their parents lost jobs and savings during the recession.
Many of the affected programs are need-based grants that provide money that complements financial aid offered by schools and the federal government. Without that cash, some students may be forced to drop out, transfer to cheaper schools or simply have less money available for rent and groceries. Experts fear others will take on too much debt or spend even more time working as they pursue a degree.
“There’s almost no question the folks coming in are probably going to have much more difficulty getting by year to year in college and staying enrolled as a result,” said Sara Goldrick-Rab, a professor at the University of Wisconsin-Madison and an expert on financial aid. “The safety net is falling away.”
…
How can you tell whether the patient will ever be able to walk on his own again when he is still hooked up to the ventilator, the dialysis machine, and the feeding tube?
Anyone who bothers to go back to our posts of July 2007 will discover some of us already saw a banking panic underway long before the PTB dropped a hint of concern.
Wall Street Journal
* CAPITAL
* AUGUST 13, 2009
Medicine is Working, but U.S. Economy Isn’t Healthy Yet
* By DAVID WESSEL
It was two years ago, in August 2007, when it became evident that the housing virus was passing into the banking system. A couple of Bear Stearns hedge funds were liquidated. BNP Paribas suspended withdrawals from funds that had invested in U.S. subprime mortgages. Then banks suddenly began to be reluctant to lend even to each other. The European Central Bank administered $131 billion in emergency first aid in a single day, Aug. 9, 2007. The Federal Reserve followed, more cautiously.
A full year later, the patient didn’t seem to be in all that much danger. At the August 2008 Fed conclave at Jackson Hole, Wyo., Stanley Fischer, the prominent economist and Israeli central banker, marveled that despite the “worst financial crisis since World War II, the real economy in the United States is still growing, albeit at a slower pace.”
Then, the patient took a turn for the worst. In the fall of 2008, the financial system came terrifyingly close to cataclysmic collapse. The Fed rushed to the rescue, but the worst downturn since the Great Depression ensued nonetheless.
…
The Fed rushed to the rescue, but the worst downturn since the Great Depression ensued nonetheless.
…
Aw gee professor, this stuff is hurting my head.
I thought everything was all right now…
“Extreme collections” just sent a scary looking guy here at nearly 9 pm looking for the former tenants, one who was a CA highway patrol officer.
yea just walk away from debt see what happens…….
“Extreme collections” just sent a scary looking guy here at nearly 9 pm
I would have thought that was forbidden by the Fair Debt Collection Practices Act
Pedal, meet metal…
Wall Street Journal
* REVIEW & OUTLOOK
* AUGUST 13, 2009
No Exit
The Fed keeps the accelerator floored.
We’re beginning to wonder if the Ben Bernanke Federal Reserve isn’t populated with French existentialists. A la Jean-Paul Sartre, they have a “no exit” strategy when it comes to unwinding their extraordinarily easy monetary policy. At least they gave no signs of restraint in yesterday’s statement after their August Open Market Committee meeting, keeping short-term interest rates close to zero and again promising to maintain current policy for an “extended period.”
The Fed is keeping the money pumping even though it also conceded that “economic activity is leveling out,” which is an acknowledgment that the recession is all but over. This policy is justified, the FOMC statement said, because the economy still has “substantial resource slack” that will keep cost pressures under countrol “for some time.” Unsaid by the Fed, but understood by everyone, is that Mr. Bernanke isn’t about to tighten money while he’s still auditioning for re-appointment to a second four-year term as Chairman. Fed chiefs who tighten money tend to be unpopular with Wall Street and the political class, though not with the middle class.
…
“…Unsaid by the Fed, but understood by everyone,”
Mr. Bear, Geez, you never played football I reckon…they call it a huddle, then they say things like: “Joey, left dogleg across the middle…spike, juke left… go deep, this is it booooyz, it’ll be a fake to crusher…and then a handoff reverse to Hwy, …on Blue 17!”
They really don’t want the defense to know what they are really gonna do…”the quarterback has the ball…there’s mass confusion everywhere!….wait, wait….run Hwy…RUN!
And just because they put x4 wide receivers in the game at 4th & 20…doesn’t mean that Joe Montana is going to throw the ball…
No wonder I have a visceral dislike for Ben Bernanke. He has sold his soul and his intellectual integrity to Wall Street, and betrayed his middle class roots in the process. Time will show it is not possible to lie or print the economy into prosperity.
This should give the porcine beauticians at the NAR, Fed and Treasury something to preoccupy themselves for the next several days. How will they spin this one? “The record level of foreclosures for July suggests the housing market may be nearing a bottom.”
Will the foreclosure dam finally really break when California’s current foreclosure moratorium expires later this year?
U.S. home foreclosures set another record in July
Thu Aug 13, 2009 12:11am EDT
By Lynn Adler
NEW YORK (Reuters) - U.S. home loans failed at a record pace in July despite ongoing federal and state programs to avoid foreclosures, which have severely strained housing and the economy.
Foreclosure activity jumped 7 percent in July from June and 32 percent from a year earlier as one in every 355 households with a loan got a foreclosure filing, RealtyTrac said on Thursday.
Filings — including notices of default, auction and bank repossession — have escalated with unemployment.
“July marks the third time in the last five months where we’ve seen a new record set for foreclosure activity,” James J. Saccacio, RealtyTrac’s chief executive, said in a statement.
“Despite continued efforts by the federal government and state governments to patch together a safety net for distressed homeowners, we’re seeing significant growth in both the initial notices of default and in the bank repossessions.”
…
It looks like the foreclosure tsunamis due to Alt-A and prime ARM resets are going to pile right on top of the job loss foreclosure tsunami and the subprime foreclosure tsunami which are already underway. Pretty soon the US will be awash in a flood of foreclosures, and there is nothing the Plunge Protection Team can do to stop it.
U.S. Foreclosure Filings Set Third Record-High in Five Months
By Dan Levy
Aug. 13 (Bloomberg) — Foreclosure filings in the U.S. climbed to a record for the third time in five months in July as falling home prices and the recession left more homeowners unable to keep up payments or refinance.
A total of 360,149 properties received a default or auction notice or were seized last month, according to data seller RealtyTrac Inc. One in 355 households got a filing, the highest monthly rate in RealtyTrac records dating to January 2005, the Irvine, California-based company said in a statement.
“We’re in a deep hole,” Diane Swonk, chief economist at Chicago-based Mesirow Financial Inc., said in an interview. “There is a whole new wave of foreclosures tied to the cyclical dynamics of the economy.”
…
Is this the Fed’s idea of a housing market recovery? I am sure glad they didn’t announce the foreclosure crisis is continuing! Otherwise, people might get pessimistic and stop buying homes, and then the prices would experience negative increases.
Foreclosures Rise Again In July
August 13, 2009
Foreclosure actions across the nation were up 7 percent in July compared to the previous month, and rose by nearly one-third compared to a year ago, according to real estate marketplace company RealtyTrac.
The company said filings such as default notices, scheduled auctions and bank repossessions were reported on more than 360,000 U.S. properties during the month. One in every 355 U.S. housing units received a foreclosure filing in July.
“July marks the third time in the last five months where we’ve seen a new record set for foreclosure activity,” said RealtyTrac CEO James J. Saccacio. “Despite continued efforts by the federal government and state governments to patch together a safety net for distressed homeowners, we’re seeing significant growth in both the initial notices of default and in the bank repossessions.”
…
Am I missing it, or are these people out of touch?
Fed Views Recession as Near an End
By EDMUND L. ANDREWS
Published: August 12, 2009
WASHINGTON — Almost exactly two years after it embarked on what was the biggest financial rescue in American history, the Federal Reserve said on Wednesday that the recession is ending and that it would take a step back toward normal policy.
Though the central bank stopped well short of declaring victory, policy makers issued their most upbeat assessment in more than a year by saying that the downturn appears to have hit bottom and that consumer spending, financial markets and inventory-building by corporations all continued to stabilize.
“Economic activity is leveling out,” the Fed’s policy-making committee said Wednesday after a two-day meeting, adding that inflation would remain “subdued for some time.”
…
Hats off to Sheila Bair. Not only does she stand her ground against the central banking cartel, but she is doing a good job of managing her end of the banking crisis. My twelve-year-old son just duly noted that when our bank (Washington Mutual) failed, it continued operations without a hitch. (It was bought by J P Morgan Chase; does that make it J P Morgan Chase Washington Mutual?)
I have a recommended remedy for this situation:
Government measures to encourage more imprudent lending, with taxpayer-funded guarantees to make the lenders whole when the FBs can no longer make payments.
Forbes dot com
Housing
Obama’s Efforts Failing To Stem Foreclosures
Maurna Desmond, 08.13.09, 12:01 AM EDT
Number of homeowners in some stage of foreclosure rises 7% in July from the month before.
Government efforts to stem foreclosures haven’t made a dent yet amid high joblessness and the continued fallout of imprudent lending.
According to real-estate data provider RealtyTrac, the number of Americans in some stage of foreclosure jumped by 7% in July from the month before, with foreclosure notices of all kinds rising to 360,149.
“July marks the third time in the last five months where we’ve seen a new record set for foreclosure activity,” said James J. Saccacio, chief executive of Irvine, Calif.-based RealtyTrac. “Despite continued efforts by the federal government and state governments to patch together a safety net for distressed homeowners, we’re seeing significant growth in both the initial notices of default and in the bank repossessions.”
…
I hope lots of California flippers who invested in NW Arkansas (including my former hairdresser) are losing their shirts about now
It is altogether fitting that Arkansas prices are crashing, as the Clintons were instrumental in making changes to the CRA that helped get the bubble rolling really good. I also can’t help but recall the Whitewater land deal and Hillary’s spectacular luck in commodities trading, but those stories will have to stay on hold until the next time she runs for president. Meanwhile, she can practice her bitchin’ body language on hapless third world citizens.
Foreclosures Linked To Falling Home Prices
Last updated Wednesday, August 12, 2009 7:21 PM CDT in Business
By Kim Souza
THE MORNING NEWS
SPRINGDALE — Washington County led the state in foreclosure filings in July with 31 notices of default, 215 notices of trustee sales and 296 properties going back to lenders in the form real estate owned.
One in every 151 households in Washington County faced foreclosure in July, according to Realtytrac dot com.
Foreclosure filings in the county are up 173 percent from a year ago. This compares to a 32 percent increase across the nation, affecting one in every 355 households.
In Arkansas, one in every 572 households were affected by serious mortgage delinquencies last month. This rate jumped 110 percent from a year ago.
Benton County’s filings increased 156 percent from a year ago. The county ranks second in the state with one in every 171 households in jeopardy, Realtytrac reported.
Local economists have predicted the filing rates will continue to escalate this year on the heels of higher unemployment.
The higher rates of foreclosure in Northwest Arkansas have been linked to the region’s active population growth and record home sales just prior to the recession.
Jeff Collins of Streetsmart Data Services in Fayetteville has said home buyers at the market’s height often put little money down and have since seen their home values fall, putting them in a negative equity position.
Economists warn that when a homeowner owes more than the property is worth they are more likely to walk away from that property if they lose a job.
The latest Skyline Report commissioned by Arvest Bank found both the average price of homes sold and the price per square foot has declined by double digits in the past year.
Benton County average home prices decreased by 11.6 percent from a year ago. In Washington County, the average price decreased by 10 percent.
The price per square foot declined 15.5 percent in Benton County to an average of $75.41. Washington County’s price fell 13.2 percent to average $83.50 per square foot, according to the report.
“…I also can’t help but recall…”
Geez Mr. Bear, I could have bought a duplex in Leucadia, CA for less than < $200,000 and we had a federal SURPLUS when “Slick Willy” (who should have resigned)left office…It’s that 8 year gap…2000-2008 that “the needle in & the damage done” … and in my POV… “whitewater” wasn’t nearly as damaging as the UN Iraq “whitewash” to our Nation or our economy…(Hwy is glad he knows how to find North without the aid of a compass)
Even Oklahoma is seeing a substantial increase in foreclosures. Certainly Tulsa is not a bubble zone?
Tulsa World
State foreclosures up 18.7 percent in July
But the rates were 11 percent below the same period last year
By Robert Evatt, World staff writer
Published: 8/12/2009 7:10 PM
Last Modified: 8/12/2009 7:10 PM
A new report indicates a mixed result for Oklahoma foreclosures in July.
One home out of every 1,056 faced foreclosure in the state, reported real estate data service RealtyTrac. That figure was 18.7 percent above the previous month, but 11 percent below the same period last year.
The state’s rate gives it the 35th-highest foreclosure rate in the nation, according to RealtyTrac.
Recently, RealtyTrac reported Tulsa had a foreclosure rate of one for every 140 homes during the first six months of the year, which was 6.3 percent above the last six months of 2008 and just 0.4 percent above the first six months of last year.
A different set of foreclosure figures from First American Core Logic, a Santa Ana, Calif.-based company, indicated area foreclosures hit 1.6 percent of all current home loans in June, compared with 1.4 percent in June 2008.
Am I missing something, or is it likely that the record rate of July foreclosures will lead to further US housing price declines and increased incentives for owners to walk away from their underwater mortgages? I would wish for Megabank, Inc to get some kind of comeuppance due to their culpability, but I realize now that whatever happens due to Wall Street profligacy eventually gets dumped onto Main Street’s sagging balance sheet.
How all this relates to green shoots of recovery and the ever-rising stock market is a deep mystery to me.
Wednesday, August 12, 2009, 6:01pm HAST
Hawaii sees spike in July foreclosures
Pacific Business News (Honolulu)
Hawaii home foreclosures rose in July with nearly 300 more filings than in June, according to monthly foreclosure rankings.
Hawaii ranked 15th in the nation for foreclosures in July, up from 19th in June, according to the latest report from RealtyTrac issued Wednesday.
There were 990 foreclosure filings in Hawaii in July. There were 706 foreclosure filings in June and 229 foreclosures in July 2008.
That represents a 332 percent increase for the month compared with July 2008, and a 40 percent increase over June 2009.
Hawaii had a foreclosure rate of one filing for every 512 households, according to the latest survey by the California-based real estate research firm.
Nevada again had the highest foreclosure rate in the country, with one filing for every 56 households.
California had the second highest rate for the month, followed by Arizona.
California had the highest number of foreclosures at 108,104.
I hope someone sees this because I won’t be able to repost this for 8/13:
http://www.gainesville.com/article/20090809/ARTICLES/908091009/1002?Title=Apartment-glut-good-for-students-bad-for-owners
For the apartment owners and developers, however, the decrease in revenues couldn’t have come at a worse time for those trying to pay off loans on expensive property bought at the height of the real estate market and built when construction costs were higher.
May I be the first to say: HA-HAW!