Bits Bucket For August 13, 2009
Post off-topic ideas, links and Craigslist finds here. Please visit the HBB Forum. And see the American Visionaries series from Schwarzfilm.
The Housing Bubble
Examining the home price boom and its effect on owners, lenders, regulators, realtors and the economy as a whole.
August 13, 2009
648 Comments »
Trackback responses to this post
- The Housing Bubble Blog
- The Housing Bubble Blog
About Me
Name:Ben Jones
Location:Northern Arizona, United States
To donate by mail, or to otherwise contact this blogger, please send emails to: thehousingbubble@gmail.com
PayPal is a secure online payment method which accepts ALL major credit cards.
Links
-
August 2025 M T W T F S S « Sep 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
Photo Submission: hbbphotos@gmail.com
View the HBB Photo Gallery *updated 4/13/2008
Foreclosures are soaring, but hey, the economy is levelling off and on its way to recovery! Boo-yah!
Sheesh, I wonder if the goobermint and the media realize how insane their various pronouncement and stories sound.
No one is ever held to account for the claims or predictions they made in the past, so there is no reason for them to worry about what they say now.
“No one is ever held to account for the claims or predictions they made in the past, so there is no reason for them to worry about what they say now.”
I predict that you will be proven correct. Let’s see how I do.
Well part of the problem IMHO is that many people use the stock market as a shorthand for the entire economy. Like many indirect measures, the more that you use it, the less accurate it becomes.
The stock market is great to use. It is the most easily manipulated market we have so the PTB love the fact that the plebs look at the stock market and equate it with the economy (at least for now). It is amazing how many plebs are getting excited over the stock market that don’t own a single share of stock.
I think the best measure is that even politician’s sons are not even able to keep that 2nd job any more.
PEDRO-KIN ‘NO SHOW’ NO-NO
SENATOR’S SON QUITS STATE JOB AS POST FINDS HIM AWOL
By BRENDAN SCOTT in Albany and DOUGLAS MONTERO and SALLY GOLDENBERG in NY
The son of state Senate leader Pedro Espada Jr. today will resign from a specially created $120,000-a-year state job after The Post found he wasn’t at work and the attorney general launched a probe.
That’s pretty scandalous.
Good ol’ nepotism! Gotta love it!
“It is amazing how many plebs are getting excited over the stock market that don’t own a single share of stock.”
Ain’t that the truth.
I thought I would try to dip my toe back into the market. One day last week, I put $100 in a mutual fund. The next day it had lost $5. The day after that, it had lost $4….
I will never “invest” in a mutual fund again….
Mutual funds are no deal IMO. IIRC, fewer than 20% of them beat the market in any given year. You’re pretty much stuck with them in 401Ks, but if you have money elsewhere and insist on going long the market in a buy-and-hold strategy, get an online discount broker and buy a dividend-paying ETF like SPY, QQQQ or DIA instead (finviz dot com has a good ETF map). The annual fees are usually cheaper, and mutual fund commissions can be up to $50 to get in/out vs. $1-$7 for an ETF from a discount broker.
I’m not suggesting you go long the market here. My point is there are cheaper ways to invest than a mutual fund.
Thanks for the info, Kim, I will look that up…
Index funds might not beat the market but they meet it.
That always happens to me, too. And I swear Vanguard executes a buy on an up day and sells on a down day for peons like me. In fact I think my old fund Strong was caught doing just that.
That’s b.s. about when Vanguard executes a buy. I buy into VFINX every Friday. I know from the transaction history that the buys are made on the COB value of the fund on Fridays.
Which one of you have outperformed the 9% ARR of the Vanguard 500 index fund over the last 33 years?
You naysayers of stock mutual funds are so smart.
It’s harder to play that arbitrage game with an ETF.
Bill, there are a lot worse choices than the Vanguard family, that’s for sure. But SPY is still out-returning and out-yielding VFINX (though by an ever-so slight amount). SPY’s expense ratio is .09 vs. VFINX’s .18 (which is still VERY low compared to others). Commissions (if you don’t have an account directly with Vanguard) will also make a real difference).
What’s really funny is that people distinguish between “actively managed” funds and index funds.
I’d say the S&P 500 is actively managed - by S&P wonks. They apply some metric of “good company” to select which companies to list in the S&P 500, and regularly drop some and add others. So an S&P 500 index fund/ETF is actively managed: it’s just that you don’t have to pay a fee to S&P for their services.
Same could be said about the DOW.
DennisN–Good point.
+1, this is a point that few really understand. Go take a look at the valuation of the DJIA if we use the same companies listed in say, 1993.
“That’s b.s. about when Vanguard executes a buy. I buy into VFINX every Friday. I know from the transaction history that the buys are made on the COB value of the fund on Fridays.”
Bill, when do you buy, before market open or after? Phone or internet? I think if you buy before the market opens it will execute that day.
Though I dissed Strong, but when I went to online buys they would execute after market close even if I placed the order at 5 minutes to market close. So I could buy on an up day or sell on a dip, but can’t do that with Vanguard. I called to ask about it and got lecture #23 about how I mustn’t try to time the market.
+1, this is a point that few really understand. Go take a look at the valuation of the DJIA if we use the same companies listed in say, 1993.
———
The DJIA uses a multiplier to adjust for companies falling in/out. Because of this multiplier, it is absolutely comparable across time.
Though I dissed Strong, but when I went to online buys they would execute after market close even if I placed the order at 5 minutes to market close. So I could buy on an up day or sell on a dip, but can’t do that with Vanguard. I called to ask about it and got lecture #23 about how I mustn’t try to time the market.
Keep in mind Vanguard just simply isn’t intended to be used by “traders”. Its target market has always been long-term investors. This is also indicated by their commission and overhead structure - high commissions but low overheads (on their own funds anyhow).
“Though I dissed Strong, but when I went to online buys they would execute after market close even if I placed the order at 5 minutes to market close.”
In Montana, I think you are confused on this subject. All mutual funds I’ve seen operate the same way here; I believe it is mandated that they do so.
If you place an order before the markets close, you get the NAV as of closing on that day. If you place an order after the market closes, you get the NAV as of closing of the next business day.
Mutual funds can only transact for customers at EOD prices, since that is the only time they can compute the NAV of their holdings. And it would be unfair to let people use the NAV of today after the markets close, because then evening buyers/sellers would have an unfair advantage due to having additional information in-hand that the buyers/sellers during the day did not have.
Consider, for example, someone selling at today’s NAV after finding out hours later that the Asian markets tanked hard; the fund would have to sell shares the following day to fund redemptions, and they would be doing so at a lower price. That would be unfair to all others holding shares in the fund.
“The DJIA uses a multiplier”
Would you mind explaining the mechanics of that?
It’s worth looking at the writing of historian Frederick Lewis Allen, about the aftermath of the 1929 crash. This was written in 1931:
“The President acted promptly. He promised a reduction in taxes. He called a series of conferences of business leaders who expressed public disapproval of the idea of lowering wages. He recommended the building of public works to take up the impending slack in employment. And he and his associates resolutely set themselves to build up the shaken morale of business by proclaiming that everything was all right and presently would be still better; that “conditions”-as the everlasting reiterated phrase of the day went-were “fundamentally sound.” “I am convinced that through these measures we have reestablished confidence,” said the President in his annual message in December. When the year 1930 opened, Secretary Mellon predicted “a revival of activity in the spring.” “There is nothing in the situation to be disturbed about,” said Secretary of Commerce Lamont in February . . . . “There are grounds for assuming that this is about a normal year.” In March Mr. Lamont was more specific: he predicted that business would be normal in two months. A few days later the President himself set a definite date for the promised recovery: unemployment would be ended in sixty days. On March 16th the indefatigable cheer-leader of the Presidential optimists, Julius H. Barnes, the head of Mr. Hoover’s new National Business Survey Conference, spoke as if trouble were already a thing of the past. “The spring of 1930,” said he, “marks the end of a period of grave concern …. American business is steadily coming back to a normal level of prosperity.”
“At first it seemed as if the Administration would succeed not only in preventing drastic and immediate wage cuts, but in restoring economic health by applying the formula of Doctor Coue. After sinking to a low level at the end of 1929 and throwing something like three million men upon the streets, the industrial indices showed measurable signs of improvement. The stock market collected itself and began a new advance. Common stocks had not lost their lure; every speculator who had not been utterly cleaned out in the panic sought eagerly for the hair of the dog that bit him. During the first three months of 1930 a Little Bull Market gave a very plausible imitation of the Big Bull Market. Trading became as heavy as in the golden summer of 1929, and the prices of the leading stocks actually regained more than half the ground they had lost during the debacle. For a time it seemed as if perhaps the hopeful prophets at Washington were right and prosperity was coming once more and it would be well to get in on the ground floor and make up those dismal losses of 1929.”
(emphasis mine)
Well, they didn’t have Obama then. The chosen one is our ace in the hole this time. Shouldn’t you be out buying something? What about that clunker in your garage?
Doctor Coue
(born Feb. 26, 1857, Troyes, France — died July 2, 1926, Nancy) French pharmacist and psychologist. Starting as a pharmacist at Troyes in 1882, he studied hypnosis, opened a free clinic at Nancy in 1910, and developed his own method of psychotherapy based on autosuggestion, “Couéism,” which most famously required constant repetition of the formula “Every day, and in every way, I am becoming better and better.”
packman-
“Only Yesterday”, was the name of that book. Not only is it a must read, it was beautifly written. I mentioned it here a while back.
opened a free clinic at Nancy in 1910
Some things never change: Pelosi’s still at it.
Doctor Coue
(born Feb. 26, 1857, Troyes, France — died July 2, 1926, Nancy) French pharmacist and psychologist. Starting as a pharmacist at Troyes in 1882, he studied hypnosis, opened a free clinic at Nancy in 1910, and developed his own method of psychotherapy based on autosuggestion, “Couéism,” which most famously required constant repetition of the formula “Every day, and in every way, I am becoming better and better.”
LOL - thanks for that tidbit. How apropos! Cue the Coueistic economy.
From Wikipedia:
Émile Coué
Émile Coué (1857-1926) served for around two years as an assistant to Ambroise-Auguste Liébeault in his group hypnotic at Nancy. However, after practicing for several years as a hypnotherapist employing the methods of Liébeault and Bernheim’s Nancy School, Coué gradually began to develop a new orientation called “conscious autosuggestion.” Several years after Liébeault’s death in 1904, Coué founded what became known as the New Nancy School, a loose collaboration of practitioners who taught and promoted his views….
I wonder if this is where the term “Nancy Boys” originates?
packman-
“Only Yesterday”, was the name of that book. Not only is it a must read, it was beautifly written. I mentioned it here a while back.
Yep - here’s a link to it online. I didn’t realize you had mentioned it actually - I’ve had a bookmark to it for a few years now.
http://gutenberg.net.au/plusfifty-a-m.html
The book and more are available here free in ebook form.
packman-
You’re one of the few people I’ve met that has read “Only Yesterday”. Glad to meet your acquaintance.
I read it too, after seeing it mentioned here two or three years back (IIRC, by laddie). GREAT book; highly recommended.
Yeah, I bought a copy on the recomendation of those here.
Nancy is a city in France.
LOL - it just struck me that Dr. Coué was basically the early 1900’s equivalent of Stuart Smalley; who interestingly enough was just elected as a Senator.
And he’s also a Frenchie - who interestingly enough just today declared that the recession is over.
Coincidences? I think not.
“Only Yesterday” is a compelling read and should be mentioned here every couple of months so the newbie get get edumacated.
Nancy is a city in France.
Actually Nancy is in Germany much of the time.
HI awaitingwipeout. Thanks for the book suggestion.
Here is the real economy
Excluding automobile sales, which can vary widely from month to month, retail sales fell 0.6 percent in July, steeper than the consensus forecast of a 0.1 percent drop and following a 0.5 percent gain in June.
In a grim sign of weakening consumer demand that could restrain economic recovery, core retail sales — excluding automobiles and gasoline, whose price is often volatile — fell for the fifth consecutive month, by 0.4 percent, after a 0.1 decline in June.
Even with cash for clunkers retail falls. Cash for clunkers stole money that would have gone to other sales.
There are no “green shoots”. The rate of decline in GDP and employment were bound to slow down, but that tempering had nothing to do with improved health of the overall economy, as much as the shills wish it did. This fall/winter might be downright hideous. What if monthly job loss numbers accelerate back into the 500,000+ range?
Its funny…this morning, Art Cashion on cnbc was answering questions about the market. Someone said well, markets always look forward. He said: well what were they looking at on Oct. 2007. Thats a pretty funny but great point.
Lane
“…markets always look forward.”
…and those that manipulate the “markets” look forward too…another “free” market innovation & a fresh set of suckers.
Well part of the problem IMHO is that many people use the stock market as a shorthand for the entire economy.
Yep. It didn’t used to be that way though - e.g. from 1932 -> 1939 the stock market was up over 300%, but we were considered to still be in the depression, mainly since:
- Unemployment was still very high (hmmm)
- People knew that the growth was a result of government stimulus/debt, thus not real growth (hmmm)
Even GDP was up 60% in that period, but we knew it was still government-driven GDP growth and not industry-driven.
Soaring foreclosures are nothing. Now a soaring stock market, THAT is something to talk about. Go media!
Cocaine kudlow said we are in a new bull market.The guy is so full of sh@t.Cramer is starting to get real old too.
“Cocaine kudlow said we are in a new bull market.The guy is so full of sh@t.Cramer is starting to get real old too.”
They are just CNBC/GE shills for the neo-prog inflata-conomy. Jeff Immelt wants to push a million windmill turbines and other green junk as an economic advisor to the psychopath Obama.
As a GE shareholder, I applaud his efforts.
Never forget that Cramer is a Goldman Sachs alumni.
If Cramer is saying or doing something, you can bet it is for his own benefit. Most of us are like that, but people like Cramer are willing to sell their souls while many, if not most of us, are not.
I would as soon trust a flipped coin for accuracy than an economist. Coins are right 50% of the time. Economists? 10%
Coins are right 50% of the time. Economists? 10%
This is pretty much true. How can they be so freakin’ wrong, and be it so consistently?
Oly, OT, but when is the last time you talked to Shorty?
.
Speaking for all on this board.. keep the personal “chit-chat” between your own emails.
It seriously bores the rest of us!!
Hey Timmy, I didn’t know you spoke for everyone else here, and I also didn’t know you knew the level of boredom of all others.
I haven’t “funned with Oly” in awhile, and I am a practicing trial lawyer, not YOUR village idiot, who would, at least request you voice your opinions for yourself, and not others.
While it is “Good to be King” If just for one day, no one made you King, to my knowledge.
With that as background, I will take what you said under advisement.
.
“I didn’t know you spoke for everyone else here”
Well… I’m the only one SPEAKING UP for everyone else here.
Seriously… next time you hit the “Return” key… when you’re just about to post… ask yourself a quick question:
“Are the HBB readers going to get anything out of this post?”
There is just soooooooo much junk on this board nowadays.. making it painful to filtrate through the garbage… to FINALLY get through to some CONTENT. (Similar to SPAM, pop-ups, etc.)
Also… I don’t know why you told me your profession as a trial lawyer.. or mentioned “VILLAGE IDIOT”. These comments are completely off-topic & irrelevant (e.g. in lawyer-speak “inadmissable & complete conjecture)
TB
Whatever Timmy, I guess you win. Maybe you’re right. I don’t add much of substance here, that’s for sure. Sorry for the boredom.
Hey ATE, at the risk of inciting Timmay!, I’ll jump in here with some more idle chit-chat:
“and I am a practicing trial lawyer, not YOUR village idiot,”
Ok, point taken, but I gotta point out that the constant requests to Oly to spell a word for you DO come across a bit like the village idiot!
But your argument above was well-reasoned and written in complete sentences—so I’ll give you the benefit of the doubt!
(Just funning with you!)
Oly, OT, but when is the last time you talked to Shorty?
Since Christmas. But that’s a good idea. I should call my mom up and have her take her cell phone out to the pasture so I can verbally abuse Shorty for a bit, and then I’ll quickly hang up. Shorty can’t very well call back—he has no calling plan, plus he has no thumbs either—so then he’ll just have to wait all the way until Christmas to get even! Hahahaha! Boy, think how mad he’ll be!
With that as background, I will take what you said under advisement.
Ouch!
Yo Timmy,
The scroll key works great. Give it a try
Speaking for all on this board.. keep the personal “chit-chat” between your own emails.
Hey Timmy, it might have been a bit more diplomatic to suggest that he move to or start another thread.
The interface on this board is not the most facile, but it’s easy to see the intersections between threads - a horizontal greenish bar.
Thanks Prime and Oly :).
I see Timmy’s point. My thought is, we got Prof. B, Timmy, cobalt, wpmv (sp), Muggy, Palmy, alpha, Prime, well the list goes on with people who are contributing HBB substance here.
I think Ben would knock me out, or anyone else for that matter, if he didn’t think were adding “something”.
Some people, (like me) don’t know enough to contribute much, but add a little fun. Timmy is right, I guess, if you want to read straight information within boundaries, but, I have to defer to Ben’s wisdom. However, maybe I will cut back a little on dumb stuff.
Finally, Timmy, no hard feelings you are alright in my book!
I am a practicing trial lawyer
Dunno about you guys, but I’m impressed.
I am a practicing trial lawyer
Dunno about you guys, but I’m impresse
ATE’s probably a trial lawyer like Columbo was a detective - all sweet and innocent right up until the moment he tosses you in the cell.
patient: Don’t be impressed, at all. I just had my feelings hurt and over-reacted.
Man you just passed up a golden opportunity to use the I’m just a caveman lawyer, I don’t understand your newfangled blogging ways.
Yo Timmy,
The scroll key works great. Give it a try
FWIW - dumminj’s HBB Joshua Tree extension for Firefox is great for skipping past comments too, and jumping to things you haven’t read yet.
dumminj
drumminj I mean.
Yeah, this place is just fer us perfeshunal skollers!
Personnaly I like the mix of practical info and amusing chatter. I’d probably wander off to a new blog if this one met Timmy’s standards.
Ate-Up,
You keep posting the way you’ve been posting.
You’re okay in my books
“The interface on this board is not the most facile, but it’s easy to see the intersections between threads - a horizontal greenish bar.”
What horizontal greenish bar? Am I missing
something?
You’re OK in my book to SanFranGal, and one of those fine people on here I would love to meet in person sometime!
What horizontal greenish bar? Am I missing
something?
Okay, maybe it’s more yellowish than greenish.
Anyway, it’s a pretty obvious divider between threads, for what that’s worth…
What horizontal greenish bar? Am I missing
something?
Come on man - I suppose next you’re going to tell us you can’t see the big black dot on the lower left corner of your screen either!
(seriously though - I don’t see a greenish bar either)
Right now, between this comment by AZ Slim
And this one from PBear, there’s a greenish bar. I say “right now” because if anyone responds to AZ it will put the bar below that response.
Y’all aren’t color-blind, are ya?
It’s tan for me actually - a fairly light tan, so not really easy to pick out.
On my screen it’s blue
On my screen (Toshiba laptop) the horizontal bar between threads is more grey w/ a touch of pink.
On my screen, it’s grey.
Olympiagal,
So you’re back……. I guess I can put away the Lucy Maud Montgomery.
Olympiagal was gone ?
She went somewhere?
Gee…I never noticed, although I do recall that ATE-UP was shouting something about calling the State Police, issuing Amber Alert and dragging all the rivers west of the Mississippi River.
W/b Oly
“Economists? 10%”
Which pays better? Getting it right 90% of the time and reporting truthfully, or getting it right 90% of the time and telling bald faced lies to help your masters sucker more fools into betting wrong?
Anyone know where there’s any good raw foreclosure historic stats online? There are some good charts on recharts.com, and good current stats, but no good historical stats.
(I’m a data nut, and this is one missing nugget. Just call me Scrat.)
Don’t overlook these three factors. One, the trickle of stimulus money is growing, and will continue to grow. Two, the 401k statements that went out in early July show a gain over early April’s, and the market is up more since then. Therefore people will feel a little more comfortable opening up their wallets. And three, the Fed’s interest rate policy and the TARP money is providing fuel for the next bubble.
The decline has ended. Even though sustainable growth may be years away, bubble growth is happening NOW.
Bubble growth in what? I believe it, of course … but doesn’t the fake money spigot have to be slowly squeezed off at some point in the not-too-distant future? Bring on that November chill and glum gray skies and spirits, I say! But for now, the grasshoppers rule again, I guess.
Crickets rule around here.
listen closely to the sound, nerve racking, constant, sound of legs being rubbed together.
Gary Schilling is predicting persistent deflation (like maybe a decade).
Are you some kind of a foreclosure addict or something?
It seems like just yesterday that second home sales accounted for 36 percent of all sales activity. What a difference four years makes!
boston dot com
BostonRealEstateNow
Markets
A market addicted to foreclosures?
Posted by Scott Van Voorhis August 13, 2009 09:00 AM
Sales activity has certainly been picking up across the country.
But providing the fuel for this surge has been a flood of foreclosed homes sold at dirt cheap prices.
It’s a Catch 22, of sorts. Buyers in a recession are going for the bargain models, which happen to be foreclosures.
But of course that is also keeping prices falling, which in turn helps laying the groundwork for more foreclosures.
The National Association of Realtors latest quarterly report offers a telling stat, with foreclosures and short sales accounting for 36 percent of all transactions. (The median home price fell 15.6 percent in the quarter, to $174,100 from the same period in 2008. That, though, was 4 percent gain over the first quarter, when the median price had fallen to $167,300.)
Maybe this is just the kick start that’s needed to get the market going. After all, it was not too long ago that we had both falling sales and plunging prices.
However, in the case of overbuilding, there’s always a point where the excess inventory finally gets sold off, leader to a tighter and more competitive market.
But with this vicious foreclosure cycle we are in, homes at rock bottom prices just keep rolling onto the market.
There are certainly signs of hope, with the Fed’s recent pronouncements offering some cautious hope the economy is shifting into rebound mode.
That could eventually put a brake on rising unemployment, which is replacing goofy subprime loans as the driver of the foreclosure crisis.
Still, it increasingly looks like a dangerous addiction, and one that is not clear how we are going to kick.
The Panorama of New York at the Queens Museum is an amazing scale model of the city that’s about the size of a football field. This year they added markers to show blocks that had at least 3 foreclosures. Swarms of them now, but none anywhere a halfway educated person with an actual job would actually want to live … yet.
I’m amazed they added the foreclosure markers. I bet they disappear when the S really HTF.
I’m amazed they added the foreclosure markers.
I’m amazed that someone used 19000 square acres to make a model of a city. I mean, at that size, how is it possible that this is an aid in visualizing the place?
LOL It lets you get a feel for how big it is! Maybe cities could claim their empty subdivisions are actually scale models of future developments.
19000 acres is 30 square miles, that must be an enormous model!
19000 acres is 30 square miles, that must be an enormous model!
Never said I was good with math.
how about 6300 sq acres? Does that sound right?
9335 sqft. according to the museum’s website. A football field is about 54000 sqft., or about an 1 and 1/4 acre.
No it doesn’t sound right, since 6300 is a third of 19000 and therefore (I guess) would still be 10 square miles.
It’s very much like a dam failure; with the water being the overabundance of home equity.
It starts with a trickle. The trickle then eats away at part of the dam, opening a wider hole. Water flows at a continually faster rate, making the hole wider - etc. until finally you have a complete torrent. That is the point we are at, or approaching, right now.
However the story doesn’t end there. There isn’t an endless supply of water in the lake. Eventually has the water recedes, the flow becomes less, until finally equalization is reached, where the flow of water out is back to normal.
When referring to that self-feeding loop - people always forget that last part. Not only is it true of foreclosures, but it’s also true of the economy as a whole. Eventually, given no government intervention, the excess that existed before is gone, and things return back to normal. “Normal” though is more like the original pristine state of the river (though still leaving the wreckage of the dam failure), rather than the stopped-up state of the lake that existed before the dam burst.
Government intervention is like throwing all they can to prevent the dam from bursting. Usually it actually works, but it takes a tremendous amount of effort, and we’re left back in the same state of stopped-up excess. I wish just once we’d let the dam just burst, empty out the reservoir, and return to a normal state of the river. Yeah there will be all kinds of remnants of the dam/lake to remind us - but over time things like will heal.
Packman — Similar to your ‘dam’ anology, I just hit the “send” key on a California foreclosure post that used the metaphor of a floodwall with water piled up high behind it and already starting to leak through the cracks. I am thinking either the wall will collapse or the water will start pouring over the top any day now…
Nah - it’s already flooding a torrent. They’re dropping cement trucks into the hole, but they only slow the flow momentarily, until they’re washed away and the flow increases.
The best thing for them to do now is just wait until the lake empties out, and then rebuild (since we know for sure they won’t let the river return to its pre-dammed state).
“There isn’t an endless supply of water in the lake. Eventually has the water recedes, the flow becomes less, until finally equalization is reached, where the flow of water out is back to normal.”
That’s the point when housing is affordable, and the PTB want it to never, ever happen, as Wall Street profit opportunities recede when the free market is functioning properly.
By contrast, destabilizing markets with subsidies and other distortionary government policy periodically creates huge (disequilibrium) waves of volatility, which can be exploited by rocket-science financiers on Wall Street who have developed financial tools to milk profits out of churning markets, to the detriment of befuddled Main Street Americans.
“The best thing for them to do now is just wait until the lake empties out, and then rebuild (since we know for sure they won’t let the river return to its pre-dammed state).”
Instead, how about if they tell stories about the blooming recovery, ignoring the rising flood waters about their feet?
BTW - I find that the dam analogy is a very useful one. The dammers of course being the banks/Fed, using the government as its tool for building. They then extract their energy in the form of electricity (profits from interest and fee revenue).
It can work fine if it’s kept in a state of equilibrium, with a constant level of potential energy in the water behind the dam providing a constant level of pressure and thus constant level of electrical output (yes I’m an engineer).
However the problem comes when the executives of the electrical company realize that they can add some extra water (say by diverting nearby rivers, or stimulating clouds for new rain, or whatever), and increase the water level in the reservoir, adding potential energy, which in turn can be turned into increased electrical energy (profits) for them. They push the envelope - increasing the water level ever more, until - whoops - went a little too far that time, and indeed the water either spills over the dam or just the increase in pressure causes cracks in the dam, and the rest is history.
The only part of the ‘dam failure’ analogy that seems absent is the evacuation of those in downstream areas to higher grounds. Shouldn’t we see some kind of rush of screaming masses trying to avoid the wall of water bearing down on them?
“There isn’t an endless supply of water in the lake. Eventually has the water recedes, the flow becomes less, until finally equalization is reached, where the flow of water out is back to normal.”
That’s the point when housing is affordable, and the PTB want it to never, ever happen, as Wall Street profit opportunities recede when the free market is functioning properly.
By contrast, destabilizing markets with subsidies and other distortionary government policy periodically creates huge (disequilibrium) waves of volatility, which can be exploited by rocket-science financiers on Wall Street who have developed financial tools to milk profits out of churning markets, to the detriment of befuddled Main Street Americans.
Yep.
They (GS etc) have actually figured out how to extract energy from the dam break floodwaters, and thus actually don’t mind if a flood happens - even if it drowns the downstream city.
“There isn’t an endless supply of water in the lake.”
What if the FED is pouring water into the lake faster than it is flowing through the busted dam? To me, this analogy fits better than our government trying to fix the dam.
To your bass boats, middle America! There’s a flood a-coming! (Whoops- repo man done hauled them boats away. Best gather at the stadium.)
“What if the FED is pouring water into the lake faster than it is flowing through the busted dam? To me, this analogy fits better than our government trying to fix the dam.”
Wouldn’t this tend to worsen the flood, rather than make it better? I guess I just don’t get Keynesian remedies…
Now you have very desirable underwater front property. Got to spin it like a realtard.
“They push the envelope - increasing the water level ever more, until - whoops - went a little too far that time, and indeed the water either spills over the dam or just the increase in pressure causes cracks in the dam, and the rest is history.”
Massive, uncontrolled kinetic energy flows are a b!tch!
“There isn’t an endless supply of water in the lake.”
What if the FED is pouring water into the lake faster than it is flowing through the busted dam? To me, this analogy fits better than our government trying to fix the dam.
Well that’s where the analogy kind of breaks down, though it does bring up an interesting point.
In the analogy water is indeed money however debt is the act of damming the river. In the real world case the Fed’s introduction of money is via debt, thus they try to stop the deleveraging by fortifying the dam. Just adding new water at the back end doesn’t help to stem the tide of deleveraging, in fact it makes it worse. This perhaps would be analogous to the Fed literally printing money and dropping it from helicopters; this would actually be a really nice thing - it would still be inflationary but would allow people to pay down their debts at least. Instead no - the Fed introduces the money into the system in the *form* of new debt; thus increasing rather than decreasing the leverage.
Fannie and Freddie are not fixes to the dam. They are monster surging floodwaters (fueled directly by the FED) running rampant. The dam’s height is determined by perceived credit-quality. The dam has failed. Accounting tricks by TTT, Bernanke, and their theiving bank buddies cannot rebuild the dam. They are making the flood much worse.
Oh, and Goldman and B of A and Citi all represent hydroelectric plants that make profits directly proportional to the water level above the dam (water pressure) so they benefit directly when the Fed floods the lake.
Are we coming up to the part where the cat drinks the whole swimming pool?
Almost there Ol’Bubba.
Further the analogy… The dam has a spilway that needs to be opened but the guys playing on the lake don’t want to open it.
After the dam bursts the boaters on the lake are complaining and the Fed tries to fill the lake back up without realizing the dam has burst.
LMAO!!!!
bubba or where there is a tiny bit left, it is stagnant, and lots of tadpoles and mosquitoes.
Is that point coming, or not?
But providing the fuel for this surge has been a flood of foreclosed homes sold at dirt cheap prices .
Gee. So when they sell for less next year, will it be at “subterranean” prices?
I call BS on the “dirt cheap prices” statement. While prices in some areas are down considerably from the peak, they aren’t very remarkable as compared to pre-bubble levels. Of course, dirt isn’t that cheap, either, so perhaps this whole thing is way over my head.
I found this post:
http://www.freeby50.com/2008/10/home-foreclosure-rates-past-and-present.html
It has a link to some data from the Federal Reserve that looks at foreclosure rates during the Great Depression.
Thanks! Good data in there. (Interesting to note that at time last year the blogger was convinced that foreclosures were only subprime.)
I find it interesting that foreclosures were starting to rise
before the Stock Market crashed .Were people taking out loans on their property to invest in the stock market,or was it cars or luxury items ,or loose lending in general ?
I find it interesting that foreclosures were starting to rise before the Stock Market crashed .Were people taking out loans on their property to invest in the stock market,or was it cars or luxury items ,or loose lending in general?
The latter two I’d say.
FWIW - generally people have known since sometime in 2005/2006 that there was going to be *some* hit on the housing market; and presumably that hit would include a rise in foreclosures. Take a look at the stock charts for the homebuilders for instance and you’ll see that they all took a dive starting in late 2005. Housing inventory for sale started rising rapidly in early/mid-2005, which was the first indicator (aside from prognosticators) that something was wrong.
It wasn’t until late 2007 / early 2008 that the general public started to realize this thing was way bigger than we (they) thought and was spilling into the general economy, and of course everyone freaked in late 2008.
Of course the HBBers knew a depression was coming back in 2002. (Even though the HBB didn’t exist until 2005. We’re that good!)
I can remember seeing something very interesting on my summer 2005 bicycle rides around Tucson. Suddenly, there was a proliferation of “For Sale” signs. And those signs were staying up for a long, long, long time.
Although the local MSM was still gushing about how good the real estate market was (for their advertisers), it was obvious that something had changed.
Packman……I’m talking about 1929 before that stock market crash . If you look at that chart ,the rise in foreclosures started happening before the great stock market crash of Oct. 1929 .
Packman……I’m talking about 1929 before that stock market crash . If you look at that chart ,the rise in foreclosures started happening before the great stock market crash of Oct. 1929 .
Doh - well yeah, that was because housing *did* crash starting in 1926; especially in Florida. It was immediately followed however by the bigger stock market bubble.
I recall, while in London and watching their house shows, it seemed in 04/05 that property in Marrakesh and Spain were being sold before they were even graded AND prices were (on the shows) bidding wars within minutes going up 100s of thousands. I knew it was bad at home, but the properties the brits/europeans were buying for speculation was wild. It was frenzied. That is the word. Frenzied buying. It was weird.
You know that gut feeling when it just feel right?
83% of Las Vegas is underwater. A new drowning
pool..
I wonder how smug my former co-worker is now. Bwahahaha. “Everybody wants to live in Las Vegas.” Bwahahaha. Dumba$$ Yankee.
I have an aquaintance who’s going through divorce, and her husband was staying in Vegas while she went back to the bay area. She was trying to get him to ‘buy her out’ of the house (which was underwater) and I had to explain how him ‘buying her out’ would actually result in her giving HIM money, and that she should try and convince him to keep the house and all the associated debt and consider that a win.
It’s a year later, and the house is now virtually worthless, yet still has debt piled up against it. Now I suggest to her walking.
Wow.
She was convinced the house prices would spring back and she’d miss out on a big fat payday if she “gave the house away” to her ex.
double wow.
I’ll be seeing her again pretty soon and will ask her how her investment is going.
I hear so many people everyday talking about walking away, living in home where they have not paid mortgage for over a year and the Realtors are talking about recover as “the inventory is falling”
Is there a way to track shadow inventory which the banks are hiding?
Hey Palmy and Muggy, you guys keeping an eye on this?
NHC issuing advisories on TD TWO and TS GUILLERMO
NHC issuing advisories on TD TWO and TS GUILLERMO
Guillermo is in the Pacific.
I didn’t catch that SD, just looked at the headline and saw two formations in Atlantic.
“Hey Palmy and Muggy, you guys keeping an eye on this? ”
Came to the party wayyy too late. What am I missing?
Whoops, sorry, it’s just right above. I don’t really get involved until “the cone” takes shape.
Yeah, you’re probably right Muggy. It is just that I had only been there two weeks and was Illinois Boy goin’ to Florida, and got slammed with Jeannie, Francis, Charley, and I think Ivan. Took part of roof off, and no power for 6 weeks total, so, I am scared of those critters, and watch them (now for you guys, and my other friends down there) like a hawk.
Prerequisite for living in hurricane country; a good generator, a propane grill w/side burner, and a small portable a/c unit. Nothing like being without power for long periods of time in sweltering heat.
The same here. I do not like hurricanes. It goes back to a sightseeing tour of the damage Hazel did in NC in 1954.
Hazel was bad. I wasn’t old enough to remember, but they retired her name. Cat 4, North Carolina, on up to Toronto.
I barely remember the mess. I was only four at the time. What I do remember is how upset my aunt, uncle, and mother were.
I hate hurricanes. Hate ‘em, hate ‘em, hate ‘em.
Hate em, Hate em, Hate em, times 1 katrillion, you guys.
When my local NPR affiliate reported this news this morning, they pronounced “Reality Track” as the source… that was good for a morning chuckle.
Upbeat Fed trumpets end of recession
Central bank says bottom reached, inflation no threat
In The Union-Tribune on Page A1
Two years after it embarked on what was the biggest financial rescue in American history, the Federal Reserve said yesterday that the recession is ending and that it would take a step back toward normal policy.
Is this yet another speech-on-the-ship moment?
Indeed it is.
The easy part of organizing a charge is done, now comes the hellish rebuilding as IEDs (Innovative Explosive Debts) demolish attempts to rebuild and take out citizens left and right.
I’ll grant that it’s POSSIBLE we’re at the bottom of the trough. I don’t believe it’s possible we’ll be climbing out of it any time soon, however.
“Innovative Explosive Debts”
Awesome!
Retail sales dip and jobless claims rise. Yet all is well with the world because as I type — stocks are up!
The best part is they never acknowledge that even if the economy sprang back to the exact same level (same wages and employees) as 2006, house prices would STILL be coming down.
But its different this time ,the government is going to back the
easy loans ,that apparently they are starting to make .
Today’s Houston news is that avg raises here were 2.1% compared to a national avg of 1.6 in a report released by the BLS.
http://www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/headline/biz/6570714.html
Somebodies lyin’ to somebody.
Another bubble capital succumbs to the foreclosure crisis:
ksn dot com
Home foreclosures climbing in KS
Last Update: 6:25 pm
WICHITA, Kansas – There’s an enormous spike in the number of home foreclosures in Kansas and the numbers are truly daunting. From July 2008 to July 2009, home foreclosure filings are up by 95 percent and Wichita may not be hit as hard as the rest of the state.
It’s no secret the aircraft industry has been hit hart lately and with round after round of layoffs, Wichita has seen an increase in foreclosures. But not like the rest of the state.
“I’m even glad I’m here instead of Kansas City or Topeka,” said realtor Tim Holt.
Holt has been in the business a few decades and says home sales are still strong in the Air Capital. And, compares to other states, he says Kansas has been a pocket of prosperity.
“We figured Kansas was gonna catch up with the rest of the country,” Hold said. “It just takes longer because we are more conservative. We didn’t have the rapid inflation.”
And if the latest numbers are any indication, Kansas is catching up with the rest of the country in home foreclosure numbers. In July, there were more than 1,300 foreclosure filings in Kansas. That’s up 94 percent from a year ago, including filings on default notices, auction sale notices and bank repossessions. But some are finding a silver lining.
“Give those (homeowners) that perhaps could not afford it — maybe they are the ones that had been foreclosed on — an opportunity to get a house,” said Andy Bias with Mennonite Housing.
…
We walked through Chinatown and Soho last night. There were a lot of empty storefronts. I have a little message to the landlords. “The rents are still too f—ing HIGH.” The landlords still think that any profit gained in “their space” should all come to their pockets. I really hate most landlords. They are like FBs on steroids.
We walked through Chinatown and Soho last night. There were a lot of empty storefronts.
I’d like to take pictures of all the empty and unfinished retail space here in Vegas. Unfortunately, my camera’s memory only has room for several thousand images.
Come visit me in Century City. I’ll show you 5 empty boutiques in a row on any given day.
I thought everybody needed a $1,500 purse.
Come visit me in Century City.
Hey! I’m going to be riding my Casino Cruiser along the LA beach strand this weekend from Hermosa to El Segundo and then - assuming we’re not dead - to PV and then back to Hermosa.
It’s the first annual OFBOBC - Old Farts Bicycle Ogling Beach Cruise
(Or is that Beach Ogling Bicycle Cruise?)
What is a casino cruiser?
What is a casino cruiser?
It’s a bike I bought at a swap meet after I realized that I lived within bicycling distance of a half-dozen or so bars and casinos. I thought (still do) it was a better idea than driving.
I didn’t want to risk losing my beloved Stump Jumper and the fully-suspended K-2 does not lend itself to bar-hopping, so the $40 CC was a perfect alternative.
I like bikes.
Thanks. I have to admit I thought you were referring to a custom PT Cruiser
Love the bike and good shots on your blog.
I would agree.. But unless the landlord bought a long, long time ago, I bet that they have a commesurate debt on their hands and are unable to lower the rents.
In essence they paid too much expecting the rents to keep going up to the sky!.
Rock… Meet very hard place.
And the comming defaults in CRE are the main reason that the stock market will resume its downward direction soon. In another ~year is when I’ll consider rebalancing my 401k with more equities.
But unless the landlord bought a long, long time ago, I bet that they have a commesurate debt on their hands and are unable to lower the rents.
Isn’t 75 cents on the dollar better than letting a space go unleased for six, nine, even more months? One would think so.
Around here, it’s not too hard to figure out who the long-time commercial owners are — they are happy to let a storefront be vacant, because their carrying costs are low. I’ve mentioned before that some friends have been leasing a space for a photo studio downtown for several years now, at more than 50% off the price the landlord wants for the space (it’s designed to be a nightclub or bar, I think) — his price remains firm. That particular landlord can afford to wait for his Dream Sucker.
I found that if the landlord has one or two big clients signed up for 20 year leases, it is often not worth their time and effort to put tenants in the smaller storefronts.
That’s not entirely true. The big clients will get upset at dead space in their building. It drives AWAY clients, and those that come in are thinking about lost jobs and closed stores, not about blowing money on useless crap.
Been looking for a cheap commercial space for a “hacker space” (geek clubhouse). Normally they want high dollar or nothing, since low rents are proof that the place has declined in value. Some will offer 6 months free on 3 year lease, probably hoping to sell it.
My landlady here on the Maine coast has a building w/ the ground floor leased to a restaurant, and five residential units upstairs. She has allowed a 2BR unit to remain vacant for at least 3 1/2 months now — and THIS is peak season! Maybe she’s afraid that if she lowers the (asking) rent, one of us other tenants will agitate for a like reduction.
Don’t forget commercial serial refinancers.
I know several places that had been owned for decades going into foreclosure because equity was pulled out of the buildings to buy new buildings to ‘expand’ the business. The whole chain is gone, and the owner lost his original buildings.
Comment by NYCityBoy
2009-08-13 06:08:15
We walked through Chinatown and Soho last night. There were a lot of empty storefronts. I have a little message to the landlords. “The rents are still too f—ing HIGH.”
—–
Haven’t been down that way in a few months. Couldn’t happen to a nicer nabe! Think of all the “sustainable” mom & pops that were chased out over the years by those high-rent silly stores with big windows and 7 useless things on pedestals just begging fools to pull out their Amex!
The trend now is dive bars, thank God.
All across the country, landlords are cutting rents to keep tenants, even those with leases in place if those tenants claim they will go broke. NYC landlords will learn to do so as well.
Or their lenders will, post takeover.
NYCboy:
Went to ditmars ave in Astoria Last stop N train, yesterday same thing…quite a few closed shops, the ones closest to a subway stop are usually the last holdouts
NYC, that is what Palmsprings landlords do, keep em empty instead of getting some rent, helping the economy and been going on for years. So, instead empty store fronts, and to many T shirt shops.
http://www.100abandonedhouses.com/
Photographer Kevin Bauman’s portraits of grand old homes from Detroit’s heyday, now abandoned to urban blight. This ghettoization of once-vibrant neighborhoods and communities is one of the saddest things I’ve ever seen.
Those pictures are sad .I bet people are living in some of those
houses .
The Detroit Free Press did a prize winning series* a few years ago, tracing the decline of one residential block. From a vibrant working class neighborhood to one where the vacant lots wher the houses the city had bulldozed into their own basements outnumber those that are still lived in. Very sad.
*no longer availabe online.
Those pictures remind me of Moron, Cuba where I went to visit my wife’s uncle in 2001. The uncle had modestly fixed up the rear of the house (with donations from expatriate relatives), but let the front decay so neighbors wouldn’t get jealous and offer him any violence.
but let the front decay so neighbors wouldn’t get jealous and offer him any violence.
The merits of socialism….Everybody should be the SAME…let someone get out of line and…BAMO!!
I think it says more about poverty than socialism.
‘…The merits of socialism….Everybody should be the SAME”
Yes, good point, “sameness”…that’s what the Irvine Company used as their housing “template” in “The O.C.” it worked so well, that every state in the Union copied it. Them “young repubican’s” look the same, live the same, talk the same, think the same, many of them have the same type of cars, clothes, spouses…it never occurred to me that all their “sameness” could be considered as some sort of “socialist” cult…
hwy, righto.”it never occurred to me that all their “sameness” could be considered as some sort of “socialist” cult… :-)”
“The merits of socialism….Everybody should be the SAME…let someone get out of line and…BAMO!!”
So you got permission to add the sequins and tassles to your uniform then? Add a little finger wave to your salutes?
The merits of socialism….Everybody should be the SAME…let someone get out of line and…BAMO!!
Is that unique to socialism? Or just part of human nature, to think of other’s success as own failure, get jealous and try to make it even.
Is that unique to socialism? Or just part of human nature, to think of other’s success as own failure, get jealous and try to make it even.
I half remember a quote like that:
“Under communism, people see someone driving a nice car and they say, ‘Some day we are going to take that car away from you’.
“Under capitalism, they say, ‘Some day I am going to have a car like that’!”
“Under capitalism, they say, ‘Some day I am going to have a car like that’!”
Under the current form of “capitalism”, they say, ‘Some day I am going to have all of the cars.’
Communism (from Latin: communis = “common”) is a family of economic and political ideas and social movements related to the establishment of an egalitarian, classless, or stateless society based on common ownership and control of the means of production and property in general,
Socialism
Socialists mainly share the belief that capitalism unfairly concentrates power and wealth among a small segment of society that controls capital, creates an unequal society, does not provide equal opportunities for everyone to maximize their potentialities .*** Wealth and power to be distributed more evenly based on the amount of work expended in production, although there is considerable disagreement among socialists over how and to what extent this could be achieved.
Socialism is not a concrete philosophy of fixed doctrine and program; its branches advocate a degree of social interventionism and economic rationalization, usually in the form of economic planning, sometimes opposing each other. Another dividing feature of the socialist movement is the split between reformists and the revolutionaries on how a socialist economy should be established. Some socialists advocate complete nationalization of the means of production, distribution, and exchange; others advocate state control of capital within the framework of a market economy. Socialists inspired by the Soviet model of economic development have advocated the creation of centrally planned economies directed by a state that owns all the means of production. Others, including Yugoslavian, Hungarian, German and Chinese Communists in the 1970s and 1980s, instituted various forms of market socialism, combining co-operative and state ownership models with the free market exchange and free price system
Social democrats propose selective nationalization of key national industries in mixed economies, while maintaining private ownership of capital and private business enterprise. Social democrats also promote tax-funded welfare programs and regulation of markets. Many social democrats, particularly in European welfare states, refer to themselves as “socialists”, introducing a degree of ambiguity to the understanding of what the term means.
Personally I fall into the last catagory, why because monopolies and oligopolies crush capitalism and thwart democracy. How many companies have been crushed by Microsoft. . What happened when one man controlled hte railroads, or AT and T the telephone lines. Why is it that cable companies control content. Wouldnt’ it be better if there was a gov owned or regulated cable that provided channels to the highest bidder and some community channels that stay based on votes of the viewing audience.
As long as you have the right government regulations ,and you bust monopolies and price fixing , Capitalism seems to bring out the most incentive as well as reward for effort ,
IMHO .
I ask how many companies were crushed by China exports
to America ?
Some industries should be more controlled by regulation and I am beginning to believe that the health care industry is
corrupt and needs some interference by government . As long as you have insurance companies rigging the game to not pay off on claims ,than lives are at stake ,and it shouldn’t be that way regarding health or life and death matters .
Very sad. There’s some really nice architecture there. Can any of it be saved? Will it be?
At the very least, this website puts the lie to any idea that we’re running out of space on the planet. Other factors are at work here.
As long as the roof stays more or less intact those houses can last for decades but as soon as its really open to the weather it’s doomed.
It is sad, as its obvious many of them were architecturally beautiful. This does put the bulldozing story in a little more perspective. I’d guess that less than half of those houses are salvagable and many of them are hazards.
The houses aren’t the real hazard…..the real hazard is the whole ‘hood, which sometimes requires one of Stpn2me’s .50 cal’s to get through safely.
You can always reuse the bricks at least. Sometimes older ones sell for a premium. (Not that we need to build anything for the next 20 years.)
You can always reuse the bricks at least. Sometimes older ones sell for a premium. (Not that we need to build anything for the next 20 years.)
Yep - I once bought a whole truckful of old bricks from someone who collected *everything*. He had piles of bricks that had come from an old movie theater call the Roxy in Santa Rosa CA that had been torn down. I used the bricks to make a patio for my house (which incidentally Winona Ryder had lived in).
Man, I would love to get hold of some nice old bricks! For a garden path. But when it’s time to demolish all the decrepit and never-lived-in McCrapshacks, there won’t BE nice old bricks. There’ll be a bunch of crappy faux riverstone and Chinese drywall.
Although I suppose I could use the granite countertops and travertine bathroom detailing instead of bricks…
(which incidentally Winona Ryder had lived in).
Why the hell did you kick Winona out of your house? Was she eating crackers? Stealing the silverware?
This fall, some friends and I will be demolishing a retaining wall at the front of the Arizona Slim Ranch. You’re welcome to take the old bricks. (Yes. I know. It’s a long drive from WA.)
That’s lovely—granite countertop pavers, anyone?
I’d love some nice old bricks to put in a small patio in the backyard of my rental too… Not motivated enough to spend money on it, though!
I used the bricks to make a patio for my house (which incidentally Winona Ryder had lived in).
Old Bean is one of those who collects, well, not everything - but a lot. He salvaged some bricks from a demo’d bldg. and used them for the path from his driveway to the front door. The rest are for future patio. There’s a lovely patina to those bricks that new material just can’t match. The bricks were from a building constructed in the late 1800s, they’re more of a maroon shade than clay.
Look on the “free” page at Craigslist. There is a steady stream of used bricks there. U haul.
(which incidentally Winona Ryder had lived in).
Why the hell did you kick Winona out of your house? Was she eating crackers? Stealing the silverware?
LOL - no she was long gone by the time we got the place. We did hear some interesting stories from the previous owner though, who had bought it from the owners who had it when she lived in it, and had met her. Her family were renters at the time. It was at the beginning of her career, right after Beetlejuice.
Agreed. Nice architecture…. lots of gingerbread but those structures belong in the ground…… right where they came from.
If those homes were in So Pasadena (So Ca) and in reasonable condition, they would be worth a nice sum. In their heyday, those homes were beautiful.
We just looked at one-story Craftsman Bungalow homes a few weeks ago in So Pas. Incidently, Sears use to sell “Craftsman” home kits and ship them. Local craftsmen helped build them, circa 1908-1930.
The huge irony represented by those photographs is that the houses were most likely built during the heyday of the last great American real estate bubble from 1890 to the end of the 20’s We all know how THAT ended.
Still, they just don’t build em like that any more and it does make you wonder what those neighborhoods were like in their prime.
I don’t know why ,but birds ,creepy crawlers and other animals seem to know when a house is vacant . The foreclosure on my block all
of a sudden got birds nesting all over the place ,hornet nests ,bugs ,and the local stray cats started hanging out in the back yard eventually . I ended up spraying the darn place for bugs at one point .I guess the bugs attract the birds and the birds attract the cats .
Possums arrived at a nearby house when the lender bought the house at auction. Never saw a possum here in nearly 10 years. Then - a mom and two little ones. Not as mean as raccoons, but not as cute.
They have since mosied on.
Bank still holds title.
According to the oft-cited Case-Shiller graph of long-term price trents, RE prices fell from around 1890 to the 1920s.
And they actually continued to fall till 1945. The reason why Case-Shiller index increased during the GD is that Case-Shiller is inflation-adjusted. (So, housing deflated LESS than other things during the GD.)
Kevin’s a good friend of mine. Thanks to Sammy Schadenfreude for posting the link to his work.
That is something Sammy. I looked at all of them. It is sad, for sure. Also, scary.
Yes, how sad. So many of those Detroit homes with great “bones” and architecture. The newly-built Mcrapshacks won’t hold up nearly so well.
I’ve had to really stop myself from buying a number of these homes…realizing the liabilities and lack of plan to restore these places.
Just very sad to see these noble (not in size but in construction, craftmanship and materials) homes in neglect and decay while people live in vinyl-clad press-board shacks stuck together for miles on end.
Compare it with a solid-wood bookshelf piece of furniture and the laminate ground-wood crap that can’t even be moved room-to-room, let alone across town.
It’s like we are living in the Wizard of Oz, or Alice in Chains, oh, I meant, Wonderland. Especially so, since Oly Gal is back!
Hi, ATE!
Yes, I’m back, until someone tracks me down and chops me up for tasty summer-time grilling.
Thank you so much, AZgolfer, for helpfully posting my email yesterday. I got two nice emails, which I answered (thanks guys!) and then I got a fairly creepy one from someone who I don’t recognize from here, but I assume here is where they got it, since I rarely used it, and who I hope to never, ever meet. I immediately canceled that email account, by the way, so if any of you sent me a nice email, I didn’t get it. And if any of you sent me a mean email, I didn’t get that either. And if I’m ever so retarded as to post an email address on here again, I’m going to do it when AZgolfer isn’t looking.
PS. So all you serial killers who like to collect fluffy blonde heads can go looking somewhere else, you jerks. Hey, I know! Look for golfers in Arizona. I hear they taste great.
*GRUMBLE *
…you know what, something is crashing and banging around in the trees out there. It’s still quite dark here. It’s either a completely inept deer or else a clumsy serial killer. I’ll let you know, shall I?
I can’t believe someone from HERE would send you a creepy e-mail, but when you are dealing with a couple hundred people, I guess one bad apple. Good idea cancelling it Oly. Also, don’t go getting in more trouble!
Dont worry, Oly,
You have a few friends here in the 82nd Airborne….
Just give me a grid of where the bad guys are…..
And stand back….
Hey Step! What did you have for breakfast, or dinner, today, or tonight?
Today we had beef and pasta for dinner and catfish for lunch…Supreme is the contractor for food and it SUCKS. Things are better with KBR in Bagram to the north, which is where I was for my first tour.
Of course, the food is much better in Iraq….
Tomorrow is steak and shrimp for dinner. I wont eat all day in anticipation…:)
“Just give me a grid of where the bad guys are…”
Cool! Give him the coordinates of some particularly hideous ‘developments’. (What’s up, Stpn? Can I call in some air strikes too?)
We take all requests, especially liberal targets (just playing)
We have the Stryker Brigade here from Washington State. That Stryker vehicle can run over a few developments, the houses today arent made that sturdy anyway. Plus, most of them have a .50cal on them and a couple of bigger guns that will make swiss cheese of any McMansion..
I think we’ve got America’s next reality TV show here!
“…a .50cal on them…that will make swiss cheese of any McMansion…”
“Stryker vehicle can run over a few developments…”
Dont worry, Oly,
You have a few friends here in the 82nd Airborne….
Just give me a grid of where the bad guys are…..
Freakin’ AWESOME!!! I’ll be sending you a list*, okay?!
…Ah, yes, the Strykers. There was a huge hullabaloo over at the Port of Olympia when it came time to ship them over there to you guys, all sorts of anti-war protests and shouting and chanting and a few arrests. I went down to watch a few times, because I enjoy excitement when I eat lunch. I was amused to see a few people I knew in the fracas. Secretly I was hoping they’d get tackled by the cops—not in a head-bouncing up and down on the sidewalk way, of course, but just a little, mild tackle, a few bops or so. They would have liked that, too, actually. They would never have shut up about their joy, had they only gotten to be oppressed by The Man.
But my point is, I hope those nice big Strykers are helping to keep you guys safe over there.
*It’ll be about the size of a phone book.
I’m not trying to be an a-hole here or anything but how effective is the Stryker going to be in Afghanistan? Seems to me it’ll be about as effective as Russian armor was. This place is gonna’ be a tough nut to crack. I just hope the bad guys don’t get any access to high tech stuff. Stay safe over there!
“We take all requests, especially liberal targets (just playing)”
I know you’re just joking, but when a soldier makes jokes about killing civilians because of their political affiliation it gives me the creeps.
Me too. When I was in the military a lot of guys made similar comments. The thing that disturbed me was the tiny percentage who took to heart the portion of their enlistment or commissioning oath that talked about defending the Constitution against all enemies, “foreign or domestic.” I would actually hear comments like “Yeah, people have rights, but that doesn’t mean they should be allowed to exercise them!” Creepy indeed. I’m no liberal, but think it’s grossly inappropriate for serving soldiers to talk, even in jest, about targeting those of a leftist political stripe. Our military personnel need to be cognizant of what exactly they’re supposed to be defending - such as the right to lawful dissent.
I thought we were all nice peole. There must be a troll lurking.
A wolf in sheep’s clothing? Good thing Oly bought some sheep shearers!
I think it is a troll too. No one on here I have read and coresponded with would do that. No way.
Over time, you (I think I can) tell a person’s character and humanity, just by writing back and forth. In that sense, the Internet is really kind of powerful.
I keep coming back because I like the people here.
We like you too, wolfgirl.
I like you too wolfgirl
Glad to see that you are back.
It does get boring without you.
Thanks. I think.
Thank you so much, AZgolfer, for helpfully posting my email yesterday. I got two nice emails, which I answered (thanks guys!) and then I got a fairly creepy one
Yes, I believe most here will agree that posting other people’s e-mails is a serious breach of blog etiquette. I am working on a new social networking site that will address this problem.
I was going to post the date of her posting but didn’t after he put a linkable address. If nothing else spambots can pick those up.
“Yes, I believe most here will agree that posting other people’s e-mails is a serious breach of blog etiquette”
+1. And posting it in un-mangled format after she had mangled it to avoid spambots was particularly inconsiderate. Good thing it was a throw-away account!
Referencing the date would have been a much better approach.
LVG:
Well it was a hotmail address easy to delete
Are there safer ways to protect privacy? remember lots of us want privacy…and others want to promote their business by linking it….. you can use my myspace link sign up and friend me…
only ben has my real addy….
Who in the heck is AZgolfer anyway? AZ Slim we know well, and AZ-Owner I sort of remember, and of course there’s ME…but AZgolfer? Had we ever heard of him or her before ?
(I do golf, in the double-bogey mode, but AZg ain’t me!)
Now I can reset my slightly elevated Mom worry meter back to zero.
Glad to see you back Oly.
Thanks, Carrie Ann. It’s nice to be back.
Your post is a model of restraint and subtle sarcasm, Oly.
Might I respectfully suggest to AZgolfer and anyone else trying to be “helpful” that they post their OWN e mail addresses, and then quietly and privately e mail the third party to inform her of other HBBers’ concern?
Actually just send an email to Ben and ask him to forward it.
That works too.
Hear hear. Publicly posting someone else’s e-mail is bad form. It’s unwise on general principle to post your main e-mail in any public forum. Much better to go point to point, and don’t ever use your primary account’s e-mail address - create a secondary account that you can delete if you start getting unwelcome e-mails.
Sasquatch, maybe? The bumping around in the trees, I mean.
obsessed raccoon?
Rocky Raccoon? The whole gig does have White Album connotations, ya know…
Sasquatch, maybe? The bumping around in the trees, I mean.
Nah, ’cause he’s chained in the wood shed. It was probably a…chipmunk! Yes, a big, scary Chipmunk of Doom!
On an ounce-for-ounce basis, chipmunks can do more damage than just about any other critter in the garden.
You’ll have to check in on close to a daily basis then Oly, that way ATE-UP won’t stress and the rest of us won’t suspect a serial killer got hold of you.
Well, I didn’t email you, but I am glad to see you are back, Oly!
Got a story from the other night that (for some reason) reminded me of you. My daughter read about how a tree was once a seed. There was a picture of a squirrel eating acorns, and she asked where the tree seeds were. I pointed to the acorns and teasingly said that maybe we’d have more trees if only the squirrels didn’t eat so many acorns. (See? That’s OLY reasoning!).
My clever little girl pointed out that the world would have more raisins if only people didn’t eat so many grapes. (OLY in training??)
That’s cute Kim
Actually, squirrels are some of the best tree planters around. They don’t have enough capacity to remember where they put their stash, so a goo proportion of them sprout.
They don’t have enough capacity to remember where they put their stash
Reminds me of some aging hippies I know …
Unfortunately I suspect I may be the author of the “creepy” email since I don’t post here that much and haven’t gotten any sort of reply. Sorry…just figured that since I use my real ID it shouldn’t come off wrong…
It takes quite a man to admit a mistake like that. I don’t know what you wrote, nor do I want to know, but you still have to be given credit for owning up to it, if it was you.
Thanks. As a Mormon with ADHD I find her almost as fascinating as you do :-).
I’ve got a touch of ADHD too, Carl.
Shocking :-).
BWAAAHAHAHAHAHAHA… Snort. Giggle.
That was nice, Carl!
No, I know it was not you. For one thing, you can spell.
Anyway, I was a tad alarmed at the time, because you hear about lurid craigslist murderers and stuff like that, but I calmed down by this morning and now I’m sorry I deleted the whole account.
No big deal, and I’m sure if someone kills me it will be because they know me, and I probably will deserve it. Hahahaah!
…hey, what’s that sound?!
“No, I know it was not you. For one thing, you can spell.”
If the author couldn’t spell, it was probably ATE…
Now I am a legitimate suspect! My luck again!
“hey, what’s that sound?!”
Probably the raccoon. Once they’ve tasted blood, they can never be trusted again…
Don’t worry OG most folks who get kilt get so by someone they know. Kinda belies the whole friends close enemies closer thing, no?
Hey Oly, glad that you are well and back here. Had sent you a note just to check if you were ok—hope that wasn’t th eone that came across as creepy!
Sorry to hear about your “accident”. Hope you are able to sit comfortably soon!
The e-mail address has been deleted from the original post. In the future, I hope that commentators will refrain from posting others’ e-mail addresses without their consent.
Olygal …you really do need one of those little kid stretchy wrist-bands attached to some serious Adult Supervision. We could officially draw straws or cast lots to see “whose day it was to look after you”
Unfortunately, with all of my sudden onsets and vague brief history of heart attacks, panic attacks , contagious flesh eating bacteria and active ebola virus, I would be naturally exempt from this glorious civic and patriotic duty and endevor due to health problems.
Think about it but don’t sit on a curb and put your little feet out in the street while you are thinking.
We’re from Ben’s HBB and we’re here to help
That’s funny mikey, you are really good.
Olygal,
Would you send me your new email address?
Thanks.
It is creepy when a bunch of guys start e-mailing a woman they don’t even know because they’re infatuated with her posts on a blog. Wasn’t the e-mail address originally intended for another poster to contact Oly when they passed through town? If I overhear a nice woman giving somebody her phone number, do I write it down and call her just because I happen to hear it? No! It’s called respect, and etiquette. Does it not occur to people that their affection is unwanted, or unwarranted? Some seriously desperate people around here, apparently. That said, I’m not sure a simple e-mail address will reveal someone’s identity, much less location, so I don’t think it’s cause for alarm.
I would like to think that the vast majority of the guys on this blog have enough self-respect and decorum, that even if they saw Oly’s e-mail address posted, they wouldn’t send inappropriate or dodgy e-mails. For that matter, very few of us would have any legitimate reason to contact her outside of this board.
The Fed keeps pumping in hundreds of billions of dollars to the secondary mortgage market and still foreclosures are up 7% from June to July. What happens when they stop pumping the dead patient full of plasma?
“What happens when they stop pumping the dead patient full of plasma?”
If they stop, obviously the patient will die. In this case it means a definitive economic correction which will be painful, but necessary.
What frightens me more is what will happen if they don’t stop.
I just saw a commercial form mortgages which bragged that “FHA loans require little or no documentation” . WTF??? Are we going to go there again?
At 125% LTV.
With a rapidly-decreasing ‘V’.
What happens when they stop pumping the dead patient full of plasma?
The patient will still be dead, we’ll have a large tab for the plasma, and we’ll have deferred many things we should have been doing now and be unable to do them then due to the plasma tab.
But as long as we keep pumping that plasma into him, we can keep using his credit card.
Let “It” Bleed.
California cracks down on foreclosure consultants
Atty. Gen. Jerry Brown orders nearly 400 companies to post $100,000 bonds and register with his office or risk prosecution. More than two dozen firms are told to defend their loan modification ads.
The growth has outpaced attempts to enforce state regulations requiring bonding and registration for consultants offering to help homeowners who can’t make mortgage payments, and authorities have been inundated with complaints about shady operators.
“We’re in the midst of an unprecedented series of scams and exploitation in our state,” California Atty. Gen. Jerry Brown said at a Los Angeles news conference Wednesday. “This is not some garden-variety problem. This is out of control. It’s huge.”
Brown said he was giving the unregistered companies, which can be found on a list posted on his website, 10 days to “get their act together” or his office would take legal action.
Letters ordering companies to register were sent Friday and the 10-day warning period began Monday, he said.
In addition, Brown ordered more than two dozen companies to back up advertising claims about their loan modification efforts. The 27 companies have touted unusually rapid mortgage adjustments and a 90% success rate for staving off foreclosures — which law enforcers find highly suspicious, Brown said.
Letters to businesses ordered to substantiate their ads were sent Monday, and they have 20 days to prove their claims or face lawsuits, he said.
“Too many homeowners are paying money in advance because they are desperate, and they’re coming up empty-handed because they are being scammed,” Brown said.
“We’re in the midst of an unprecedented series of scams and exploitation”
I thought he was reffering to the CA. state government.
Obviously, the loan-modificaiton companies don’t contribute nearly the same amount that the NAR and mortgage broker associations do, otherwise this would have been said years ago.
I’m still waiting for the SEC to bust up the NAR for their “Homeownership is the surest path to wealth” advertisements. I can dream, right?
“Obviously, the loan-modificaiton companies don’t contribute nearly the same amount that the NAR and mortgage broker associations do…”
Well said, Bad.
I could have sworn he meant the Federal govenrnment.
“I could have sworn he meant the Federal govenrnment.”
That was my thought exactly!
BTW, pressboard: have you thought about how well your moniker goes with the new “GO GET SOME (pressboard)BOXES!” meme?
A pressboard box is what goes for a house in FL nowadays. Imagine a KB home before it gets sprayed with stuccco. We do have some of these naked ones too that never got finished.
Ah, my mistake—sorry… I was thinking it was a synonym for cardboard; I believe the term was also used for card-stock back before particle-board & OSB cr*p took over the construction world.
I can provide Brown with all the enequivocal proof he needs that these operations are scams. All he has to do is send me $50,000 in advance and I will mail him all the required info.
Will you take an IOU?
Very funny. Love it.
That was too funny.
And he makes out the check to just “Al” — right?
Jerry Brown is one of those rare, well-intentioned politicians who actually tries to look out for the public interest.
Jerry Brown’s efforts are now aimed at polishing his legacy.
The new deal is a auto call that declares that you might of been a victim of your mortgage lender and be entitled to be part of a class action suit ,(I got that auto call yesterday ). A couple weeks ago I got a auto call saying in essence that if I press number 1
I will be directed to my underwriter ,which suggests that my lender is on the other side of the line ,but it’s a third party company . The point is that either one of these could be people trying to find out my social and credit card numbers . Since I’m never late on my
loan and I have a good rate ,why would my loan company call .
A friend of my answered a ad on a to good to be true rental . The guy on the other end proceeded to try to get his Social and credit card numbers over the phone .
“A friend of my answered a ad on a to good to be true rental.”
I saw one of these posted for my neighborhood a few days back on CL! It was _SO_ obviously a stucco McCr*pShack in Cali somewhere, and there was absolutely zero chance that the picture was anywhere in my ‘hood (which has a distinctive look and density). I flagged it just on the picture alone. I figured it was an ID-theft hook.
these are on craigslist all the time in Los Angeles. Usually pretty obvious but the too low prices and the “no credit!”. I spend a lot of time flagging them when I’m in a mood to do my civic duty. Sometimes it’s about 1/3 of the postings.
No actually he’s running for governor again.
I think I’d rather see him than Newsom….
I would rather see Tom Campbell
Well so would I - having voted for Campbell in the past. I’m just saying that Brown would be less bad than Newsom.
Time to bring in Elliot Spitzer?
“We’re in the midst of an unprecedented series of scams and exploitation”
ohhhh….they’re not unprecedented that’s for sure.
“and a 90% success rate for staving off foreclosures — which law enforcers find highly suspicious,”
How is that when you helped them out by putting a 90 day stay on foreclosures!
Reminds me of the fellow who saw his neighbor putting out large white pills around the outside of his house. The neighbor asked, Bill what are those for? Bill replied, “anti-elephant pills”. But Bill the neighbor retorted, “there isn’t an elephant within a thousand miles from here”. Bill replied, “ya, they work pretty good don’t they”!
“ya, they work pretty good don’t they”! Just like Ernest Angley’s exorcisms work for my neighborhood.
Thanks for your help Jerry. Talk about closing the barn door when the animals have already escaped. Every ex-felon in California has stopped being a mortgage broker or incompetent carpenter and begun a ’save the house sleazy company’ for two years and now you notice.
Foreclosure party helps host with her anguish
By Diane Bell
Union-Tribune Columnist
August 13, 2009
Lara “Raven” Fischer decided to make the best of a bad situation. When her Normal Heights property — a house with two rental units — was headed into foreclosure, she threw a goodbye party.
More than 100 invitations went to Facebook friends under the heading: “Cocktails and Foreclosures: All of life’s major events should be celebrated.”
“It’s horrible, and it’s embarrassing,” Fischer said of the impending foreclosure. “But I don’t want to be ashamed. If you don’t talk to friends about it, it can be overwhelming.”
Fischer, 39, and her former husband bought the property in 2006 to remodel and sell. Then the real estate tsunami hit.
Fischer said she did everything possible to cut expenses and negotiate with her lender, but the property’s value dropped from a high of $850,000 to about $300,000, and her interest-only mortgage payment was about to escalate. So she stopped making payments.
Friday evening, 70 to 100 people gathered in her backyard to raise her spirits. She provided refreshments: a single bottle of vodka, one six-pack of beer, a bag of chips and a jar of salsa. One guest jokingly brought a sledge hammer. Another brought spray paint. Several inquired if they should bring Kleenex.
As it turned out, when Fischer reported to the county courthouse steps Monday for the auction, she learned that her lender had postponed the sale. She called her mortgage company and was informed agents would work with her, although they gave her the same paperwork she had filled out months earlier.
So Fischer is back on the foreclosure roller coaster, not knowing if she will keep or lose her property. Thanks to her foreclosure party, though, she got 40 text messages Monday morning asking if she was OK. If she hadn’t reached out to friends, she says, “I wouldn’t have had that support.”
but the property’s value dropped from a high of $850,000 to about $300,000, and her interest-only mortgage payment was about to escalate.
I find this statement funny…to overpay half a million dollars for a property just says STUPID to me…
I find this statement funny…to overpay half a million dollars for a property just says STUPID to me…
I’m not sure which I find more astounding, that they might have paid more than peak bubble prices a year after the peak (overpaid even relative to the peak and after the peak) or that the value might have fallen 65 percent. I wonder if they did some type of cash back at closing that pushed the purchase price above the true market price.
Buying to flip a year after the peak wasn’t too smart. The story mentioned a “former” husband. I wonder who dumped who and why.
I got the feel that this must of been a cash-back incentive deal
also . From late 2005 -2007 the REIC was knocking on peoples doors with cash back schemes and remember the buy a house get a car BS .
Buying to flip a year after the peak wasn’t too smart. The story mentioned a “former” husband. I wonder who dumped who and why.
We all know, deep in our hearts that the reason she’s facing foreclosure is not that she’s broke, it is that her cash flow was cut due to the husband leaving at the same time the house fell in value. Why keep feeding the house in that situation? Why not stop paying the mortgage when you read everything in the news about modifications?
That being said, throwing a party for “70 to 100″ people with only a single bottle of cheap vodka and a six pack is pretty cheap and classless. I understand the whole BYOB thing, but that is not “throwing a party”. That’s called “I want to be liked by my friends but I’m to cheap to buy all the booze ahead of time.”
So I think the problem based on the evidence we have is not that she can’t afford the home, it is that she is too cheap to afford the home given the plunging price. And had the price gone up? I’d bet she’d still “throw parties” that were BYOB.
I agree. It’s kind of classy, I guess, to throw a ‘foreclosure’ party, and try to make light of your own stupidity. But to serve basically nothing is more of a performance-art pity-me fest. I hope she warned her guests in advance, because it seems like the kind of party that needs a little booze.
I don’t think they could ever afford that house. It was bought to flip.
Maybe it’s just me, but I wouldn’t be celebrating a bad business decision. Learn what I can, but not celebrate.
I suspect the guests weren’t at the party to eat. I am sure they all offered the obligatory hug and kind words. Then they picked out which fixtures and mechanicals they’d like when the bank takes the place back.
“…Maybe it’s just me, but I wouldn’t be celebrating a bad business decision”
+1
SDGreg for mayor of San Diego!
TEE HEE!!!! Kim: BYOTB (bring your own toolbox).
Then they picked out which fixtures and mechanicals they’d like when the bank takes the place back.
Hahahahah! Funniness!
That reminds me of one delightful article awhile back, the lady was wild with wrath that as she packed up her stuff preparing for eviction some neighbors came over and started digging up her trees and shrubs.
“I understand the whole BYOB thing, but that is not “throwing a party”. ”
Funny, I have some friends who host an annual get-together. These are friends that I tried (and failed) to talk out of speculating in RE when they “tripled down” in 2006 (bought a new, twice-as-expensive house, and decided to keep the old one as a rental).
Their get-together this year morphed into BYOB + BYO-grillable. And six months ago, they were talking about renting out their basement apartment (but haven’t done so yet).
I still went to the get-together and had a good time, though…
Belts are definitely tightening in the over-leveraged segment of the populace.
“to overpay half a million dollars for a property just says STUPID to me”
What I find stupid is that she’s sad about being released from the liability for an asset that is worth half a million less than she owes. People’s perception of foreclosures is ass-backwards, IMO.
——–
No it’s not. The asset is being given back, and if in decent condition is well within her rights as stated by the contract.
That the bank offered her as much on an asset that could be worth less than she paid for it is not her problem.
“70 to 100 people gathered in her backyard to raise her spirits. She provided refreshments: a single bottle of vodka, one six-pack of beer”….
Cheapskate. That’s barely enough for just me.
Yeah, ain’t that the truth Blano?
This is the San Diego paper, right?
http://www3.signonsandiego.com/stories/2009/aug/13/foreclosure-party-helps-host-her-anguish/
why didn’t she just try balloons?
This story has it all! Fraud, bad flipping, divorce, theft, cheap booze, Facebook and an attention wh*re. Basically everything I hate in life. I would’ve loved to have been at that party. Talk about pure schadenfreude goodness!
Talk about pure schadenfreude goodness!
Schadenfreudenmunchen!
This lady got her 15 minutes of fame ,but I suspect her true motive was maybe people would take pity on her and get a collection box going .
She should have had more booze then.
It works for the church crowd.
Yeah Chile, she wasn’t thinking to begin. Booze em’ up, head em’ out! Rollin’ Rollin’ Rollin’ etc….
“New Jobless Claims Rise Unexpectedly to 558,000″
but wait… Thats not all!
“Number of U.S. Foreclosures Rise 7 Percent, Setting New Record in July”
Yup, economic recovery under way! Good thing that recession was short lived.
Do green shoots keep growing into the dead of winter? I can’t remember.
Commie!
the administration’s foreclosure-prevention efforts …
“It’s starting to reach more and more people, but we have to do better and make sure the program reaches the millions of folks we intended it to reach,” said Jared Bernstein, an economics adviser to vice president Biden.
“Each of these programs nips away at the problem of excess supply,” said Doug Duncan, chief economist for Fannie Mae, “and fights against declining prices. … The hope is that the aggregated programs will result in less loss than would happen in the free market.”
Yes, the fight against declining prices. Keeping housing unaffordable for the average Joe. That’s what Fannie Mae is all about. Why didn’t we let these pigs die when we had a chance? Just a rethorical question…
“Keeping housing unaffordable for the average Joe. That’s what Fannie Mae is all about.”
If markets were allowed to function free of all the distortionary government “affordability” programs, there would be no need whatever for more distortionary interference with markets to “stabilize” housing prices.
Lots of stupid people who have no idea of what is meant by “free markets” are blaming the foreclosure crisis on “free market economics.”
Well a not unreasonable argument can be made that in the absence of the 30 year ammortizing loans that are a creation of Fannie, house prices would be set not by owner/occupiers but by cashflow (not accidental) landlords.
Jim,
I’m thinking owner/occupiers will always set the price because they are the biggest part of the market. The only question is how many years of income they are willing to put into a house. I’d love a crystal ball that shows alternate realities, just to see how far the banks would have gone without government backstops to their foolishness. 50 year amortizations with all the risk born by the banks? It’s possible.
Well I would argue that O/Os have been the biggest part of the market largely BECAUSE of the fannie created a market for the 20% down, 30 year ammoritzing mortgage. Without Fannie and Freddie buying ‘em they probably wouldn’t exist, they certainly didn’t before Fannie was created. Without that and the mortgage deduction, prices would certainly fall, but not enough for most O/Os. Instead cashflow investors would be purchasing, possibly through REICs or such.
How did Jared Bernstein become an econ. advisor to Biden with an education like this?
Bernstein graduated from the Manhattan School of Music with Bachelors Degree in Fine Arts where he studied double bass with Orin O’Brien. He earned a Masters Degree in Social Work from the Hunter School of Social Work, and from Columbia University he received a Masters Degree in Philosophy and Ph.D. in Social Welfare.
You answered your own question. It’s all about “social welfare” now, don’t you know? None of this evil capitalistic “accounting” crap.
You certainly need more than one voice at the table, including the one shouting “think of the children!” Unfortunately the one preaching fiscal responsibility seems to get tuned out. Responsible isn’t very ’sexy’ for voters or the MSM I suppose.
I hate to break the news to y’all, but Alan Greenspan’s undergrad degree is from Juilliard. He was a jazz musician for a few years.
You imply he only had one degree. Greenspan later received a BS, MA, and a PhD in Economics. Bernstein has zero degrees relating to economics.
(hate to break the news to you)
You’re right, packman. Greenspan attended Juilliard, but didn’t get a degree. He was a sax and clarinet player and toured with toured with Henry Jerome and his orchestra.
I stand corrected.
That’s a funny observation, though to be fair, some of the more accurate economists/analysts/finance folks had no formal training in economics or finance.
I looked him up because I wondered whether he was a principal with AllianceBernstein mutual funds, and therefore might have had a conflict of interest.
Not like the guys with finance/economics degrees are doing any good.
I guess my comment on this whole topic is that if I as an engineer had the track record for accuracy that is consistently shown by those who practice the dismal science I’d be bankrupt or in jail, or both.
My point being, all education is not equal.
…nor is every discipline disciplined.
Don’t forget the drop in retail sales.
Wallstreet is boombing. Main street is still in the ditch.
Huffington Post just ran a piece about this very disconnect.
That was some article Slim. Scary, isn’t it?
Scary in that the commentator doesn’t understand that the government can’t mandate economic growth?
dude, I thought the author did understand what you are saying. Maybe I am wrong.
“They can see the economic upturn. They see the Dow rising. They know that corporate profits are no longer in a free-fall.”
“When he traded off billions in stimulus money that would have prevented precisely the cuts states are making today — laying off workers and slashing essential programs, which runs counter to the whole point of the stimulus package — for the same kind of tax cuts that ballooned the deficit during the Bush years, many of us thought he was just a really bad poker player.”
Those two snippets are where I read that:
1) The downturn is over.
2) It is thanks to stimulus money, but more of the same would have kept states from needing to make drastic cuts.
Someone said yesterday that of $19 trillion in excess public debt, we’ve managed to deleverage $2 trillion.
But we are heading for a $2 trillion federal budget deficit, which means we have deleveraged at all. Private debt for McMansions and SUVs was merely shifted to the public balance sheet, meaning younger generations (who aren’t so young anymore) won’t get Social Security and Medicare when the are older.
And absent any deleveraging, total, we have 10% unemployment.
“Private debt for McMansions and SUVs was merely shifted to the public balance sheet,…”
Isn’t that what Wall Street and Fed folks mean when they say ‘deleverage’?
Also worthy of note is that the public deleveraging was over two years - the Fed’s $2T is just one year, thus double the rate. So the net is that debt is still growing at $1T per year.
No, no. It’s part of the master plan I’ve been hearing about.
Rome wasn’t destroyed in a day!
Neither was Syracuse.
Neither was Syracuse.
The fist step was renaming their mascot from “Oragemen” to the more PC (and stupid) “Orange”.
It’s all downhill from there.
OragementOrangemenSame thing happened at Stanford. They used to be the Cardinal Sins.
Cool packman.
“meaning younger generations (who aren’t so young anymore) won’t get Social Security and Medicare when the are older.”
Speaking as someone firmly embedded in the Generation-X cohort. We already know that.
Me, I’m learning how to grow stuff and handle firearms properly. I’ve lost faith in anything else.
True enough. I know how to hunt, and a little bit about growing. Sadly, my eyesight is so bad that if society crumbles, I’ll eventually be screwed. I do save all my old glasses, though, so I’ve got a while to get through every pair.
Ahhhhhhhh! That reminds me of the most upsetting episode of Outer Limits ever! (I think it was Outer Limits.)
I saw it at my gran’s house when I was a wee lass, but it made a huge impression. There was this brutally oppressed and very nearsighted guy who just loves books and he’s down in the basement of a big library when there’s a nuclear holocaust and everybody dies. It was evidently very quick and sanitary, because there’s no messy and unsightly corpses lying around. He comes up, sees everyone’s gone, including his jerk boss, and gets allllll excited, because now he gets to read allllll he wants! Finally! Hooray!
I, too, loved to read, and was often hauled away from books and brutally oppressed by The Man, so I was very excited and thrilled for this lucky fellow.
And then….then…(this is hard for me to write, the pain is still so great)..then…he drops his glasses on the steps! They’re powdered! That’s it, man—there will be no endless reading after all. The episode ended with a close-up of his distress, holding his destroyed glasses.
Oh, it was AWFUL. I believe I howled at the top of my lungs and scared the c*rap out of granma.
I’m sure I won’t be the first to tell you that it was “Twilight Zone” and not “Outer Limits”
Be a great ad for laser eye surgery…Get yours now- before the Apocalypse!
lol at both Oly AND alpha.
I saw that episode too, and it was pretty heartbreaking. Some glasses wearing corpses would have come in handy about then.
It was Twilight Zone you guys!!!
Twilight Zone
It was a Twlight Zone episode called “Time Enough at Last.” Burgess Meredith played the near sighted man.
Man, you guys know everything!
This is why I don’t bother to wiki or google or learn anything anymore. I just get on Bens Uberblog and all is made known to me.
SanFranGal and Oly: I think I was five or six when the “Outer Limits” came out. Couldn’t wait…
Then, it started…
“There is nothing wrong with your TV set” (Picture all distorted and crap), “You are entering…The Outer Limits!
Scared the living heck out of me, it did, and I never forgot it!!
Yeah, alpha and I talked about this gig. I figured he needed an opthamalogist, and they were all dead, but he could have racked a Wal-Mart for the over-the counter stuff, just to read! Sheesh, hate to repeat myself…
It takes two to screw (each other over): Home owners could not have done it without the complicity of lenders who abolished underwriting standards.
(sarcasm tag on)But those reckless home owners with big loans should have known better than to lose their jobs — a bad move when you are trying to pay of a ginormous mortgage(sarcasm tag off)
Reuters Blogs
Commentaries
Now raising intellectual capital
16:47 August 12th, 2009
The government’s foreclosure flop
Posted by: Christopher Swann
Tags: Commentaries, foreclosures, Housing, Obama, unemployment rate
The Obama administration has attacked the problem of rising home foreclosures with a humanitarian zeal. Their program — the most ambitious in generations — was intended to save up to four million people from being thrown out of their homes.
A few months on, this $75 billion policy has been a humiliating flop. Only about 270,000 mortgages have been modified since the scheme was announced in February, according to government figures, and if past experience is anything to go by, half of those could be delinquent again within six months.
The root of the failure is that the Administration crafted its policy on a powerful narrative of banks hoodwinking borrowers into taking out exotic and extremely dangerous loans.
Instead, homeowners’ own reckless borrowing and unemployment have been far more important.
…
Remember that report from a couple of weeks ago? That the median date of purchase for foreclosed homes in CA was 2003? If many of these people HADN’T gotten cash out REFIs, they wouldn’t be underwater.
But if they hadn’t liberated their equity through refinacing, what would we have done ;-)? Built an economy based on something other than debt-fueled consumption, perhaps? (Hey, I can always dream…)
Beware the Used Home Sellers’ deception of shrinking inventory. All is not what meets the eye in the housing market! I believe Dough-4-Dumps has served nicely to clear out the MLS inventory, but the foreclosure tsunami is another story entirely.
WSJ Blogs
Developments
WSJ dot com tracks the housing market with news, tips and analysis
* Mortgage Rates Tick Back Up
* And The ‘Most Affordable’ Metro Is…
* August 12, 2009, 1:33 PM ET
California Foreclosures Set for Liftoff?
By Nick Timiraos
Lookout, below. California could get hit by a new wave of foreclosure sales.
Notices of default, which mark the first step in the foreclosure process, fell by 1.5% in July from June but increased by 12% from one year ago, according to ForeclosureRadar, which tracks California foreclosure sales.
Meanwhile, filings for notice of trustee sales, which show the number of properties scheduled for a foreclosure sale, increased by nearly 32% in July from June. New trustee sale notices, excluding those sales that have been canceled or already taken place, rose to a record level of nearly 125,000 in July, up 10% from one month ago and nearly double the levels during the 2008 foreclosure peak.
The increases in pre-foreclosure notices came after foreclosure auction sales fell by 23% in June, ending three straight months of increases. California had 17,000 foreclosure sales in July, a 40% drop from the July 2008 high. Nearly 45% of sales resulted in prices that were at least half of the original loan balance.
Meanwhile, housing inventory listed for sale in California and several other markets continues to shrink as the summer selling season winds up.
In the 28 housing markets tracked by ZipRealty, an online real-estate brokerage, the number of homes listed for sale in July declined for the 13th straight month and as this WSJ story noted, homes and condos listed for sale decreased by 2.5% in July from the previous month and by 27% from the previous year.
…
“Nearly 45% of the sales resulted in prices that were at least half of the original loan balance.”
What? I thought most foreclosure “sales” were sales to the lender at a price exactly matching the loan balance. ???
Oh well, I guess this statistic just excludes those “sales.” And so, it’s quite funny — most of the prices were LESS than half of the the loan balance. Amazing.
hillary clinton’s 2011 campaign slogan -
“i am a democrat, yes…but i am an AMERICAN FIRST!!”
and don’t make the mistake of asking what Bill thinks about that.
And I say bravo that she spoke her mind.
Me too SanFranGal!
I was confused as to why the press was making such a fuss about it.
Probably sexism. Sadly.
2011?
You mean 2009. The permanent campaign.
Birthers, Deathers, Haters and Liars. It’s what’s left of the GnoP.
Doesn’t seem like the Dems have many Love & Peacers left, if you’re any indication.
Birthers, Deathers, Haters and Liars. It’s what’s left of the GnoP.
There’s little left worth saving, but it’s still enough to roll the Dems. Really pathetic on both counts.
“There’s little left worth saving, but it’s still enough to roll the Dems. Really pathetic on both counts.”
I would agree on the pathetic part if the idea that the Haters and Liars were effective but they aren’t. They sure are doing a good job of further isolating themselves to the fringe though.
…or whenever the democratic primary is held.
Are California lenders unaware that you lose more money by holding on to falling knife inventory until it reaches the ground than by unloading it while parachutes can still be deployed? Why is this so difficult to grasp? Or is it that they were so blinded by the green shoots propaganda message that they are missing the stark reality staring them in the face? Or do they still think they are going to eventually qualify for some kind of bailout? What gives?
It looks to me like the water is piling up high behind the foreclosure flood wall, and already starting to leak through the cracks…
LA Times Business
FORECLOSURES
Lenders hesitating to repossess California homes
The backlog of homes in default is growing. In July, default notices were up 12% from a year earlier but repossessions were down 40%.
By Peter Y. Hong
August 12, 2009
The backlog of California homes in default, but not yet repossessed, keeps growing.
At some point, many of these properties will be repossessed and put back on the market. Until then they remain, clogging the system as “shadow inventory,” most likely to be foreclosed and sold again.
Key data points from ForeclosureRadar, an online seller of California default data:
* Default notices, which are sent when a borrower has missed several payments, were up 12% in July compared with a year earlier. Default notices are the first stage of foreclosure.
* Auction notices, in which an auction date is set, were about even with last year’s level. Auction notices are the second step in foreclosure. After a default notice is sent, and even after an auction date is set, the borrower and lender can get out of foreclosure by reaching a loan modification agreement or selling the property.
* Repossessions were down 40% from a year earlier even though default notices were up and auction notices were flat. Lenders are delaying the final step in foreclosure. This is what’s creating the growing backlog of distressed properties.
* Foreclosures scheduled for sale — that is, properties awaiting auction — increased 93% from a year earlier.
The jump in foreclosures scheduled for sale reflects the widespread practice of lenders stalling the final sale of distressed properties. There are more than 124,000 of these properties in California.
They’re kicking the can down the road to try and get one more round of bonuses out before (or even after) bankruptcy.
As long as bonuses are based on short term time frames there will be no incentive to look very far in the future.
Who’s paying property tax on CA shadow inventory? Does it just keep piling up on the owner of record with penalties? If taken over by the lender, are they responsible?
I think that a lot of counties are very interested in the answer to this question.
I’ve wondered how much the answer to this question has to do with the banks filing NODs and then canceling foreclosures at the last second.
If they do not complete the foreclosure, then they are not the owner of record, and hence they don’t get a PR black-eye or any legal actions against them to pay the past-due property taxes.
But the property taxes are still accruing, and are should eventually end up as a lien on the properties, which will have to get settled at closing when/if the banks ever DO foreclose and then sell these properties.
So it is a time-bomb of slowly-accruing liabilities, but at least it avoids any immediately impact to the lenders on a cash-flow basis.
To answer directly, yes, the new owner will owe the back tax.
Is this why the PTB say that everyone is saving now? They are living rent free and stashing their money until the banks kick them out?
What DO they base that on, btw? Banks telling them that savings accounts have more money in them? 401K suddenly acquiring more money?
Seems to me that people can’t afford to save right now.
We discussed that recently. I forget our conclusion but someone posted a link. As with a lot of statistics, it doesn’t exactly measure what you think it’s measuring. My take was that if people are borrowing less (ie less house sales), then the savings rate will appear to increase, without any actual extra money being saved.
Yes, although I suspect that the decrease in HELOCs and cash out REFIs are the culprits, rather than purchase-money loans.
Is it me, or are house prices in Queens, NY still 40% - 50% overpriced?
http://newyork.craigslist.org/que/reb/1317505536.html
Yes it says $800,000!
http://newyork.craigslist.org/que/reb/1314637993.html
“lovely” for $1/2 mil !?!
http://newyork.craigslist.org/que/reb/1317821600.html
That’s higher than prices I saw for those homes in 2005!
Why hasn’t NY crashed?
Fewer people have to sell here. So sales crashed instead of prices. And you still have a few knife catchers.
“Fewer people have to sell here.”
I guess nobody bought with Alt-A or prime ARMs in NYC, then?
Fewer, and less HELOCing. Which is why NY is down toward the bottom of the foreclosure rankings.
That will just prolong the pain. Being relatively expensive is not good when prices are going down.
I guess nobody bought with Alt-A or prime ARMs in NYC, then?
In the northeast, unemployment is still lagging… that is the key driver of foreclosures in the nicer neighborhoods. If you include education and health care, fully a third of the working population of MA works for the government in some capacity. The economic pain in the public and pseudo-public sectors is slow to come.
The public sector cuts around here are just picking up steam. If tax revenue doesn’t increase, next year will be critical for budgets, unless of course the Federal Government goes in hoc some more by borrowing from foreigners to plug state budget gaps…
Looks like what we have here in NoVa - low end has tanked & anything under 400 K sells instantly (use the free 8K!)
Sellers in the 7-800K arena still think their McCrap-shacks are worth big bucks
- it always takes these folks a while to wake up & realize it isn’t 2005 anymore & they ain’t gonna retire from the proceeds of their house
Crazy how low-end is 400k and less. Ten years ago 400k would have bought houses and property in Great Falls.
Now it’s 20YO townhouses in Centerville.
The NOVA spike, like suburban MD is just beginning to tank. Forget Manassas in VA and PG County in MD…they are already toast - the pain will expand.
Sales numbers are down here but not prices so much. Prices at the top include:
Manlius To be built for $1.8m, 5000 sq ft
http://cnyhomes.com/Listing/Search/info.cgi?mlnum=208234
1905 Caz lake view walkable to village, for $1.5m, 5600 sq ft
http://cnyhomes.com/Listing/Search/info.cgi?mlnum=210530
Dewitt, To be built for $3m, 15000 sq ft
(Isn’t 15000 sq ft more like a hotel?)
http://cnyhomes.com/Listing/Search/search.cgi
Dewitt, just under $2m, 8000 sq ft
http://cnyhomes.com/Listing/Search/info.cgi?mlnum=195662
Isn’t Queens one of the NY counties w/especially elevated unemployment numbers? Could these be desperation pricing?
Also, after having conversations w/several different realtors over the summer I think its safe to say many sellers are still of the “but it’s different here” mindset.
The thing you have to remember about NYC is that 2/3 of the households are renters, many in rent stabilized units or public housing.
Many owners are in co-ops, which limited the stated income nonsense and cannot be borrowed against.
Most outer-borough homes have 2-4 families, with rental income. Those loans were scrutinized more carefully.
Most of the foreclosures are in working class minority neighborthoods on the border of gentrifcation. You had these fictitious price spikes, the less educated owners suddenly started getting offers of free money, and took the bait. Now they are losing their homes.
Other pain — speculators who bought rent stabilized buildings in the hopes of pushing out existing tenants and replacing them with yuppies, and new condo buildings.
Yes WT, this is the stuff I like, moron landlords who wont PAY a tenant to move. so they do illegal things and get sued up the wazoo.
I know a lot of you hate gov regulations and rent control, but think of it as an easement that goes with the property. Like a common driveway to the house in back if you wanted to expand your house you have to buy them out,or make another easement.
So LL buy houses with controlled rents at far LESS then the value if the rents were decontrolled. The big money is made over say 20 years when the old people die and you can double or triple the rents, but LL get greedy and harass them to move asap.
I know of cases where a 33 cent nasty eviction letter to a rent controlled person paying like $200 month caused them to get so scared the police were going to toss them out…they moved in a week.
——————————————————————–
Other pain — speculators who bought rent stabilized buildings in the hopes of pushing out existing tenants and replacing them with yuppies, and new condo buildings.
And those speculators got mortgages BASED on how much they expected to be able to sell or rent for. Now THAT’S turning out to be so much wishful thinking. We’re only STARTING to see that fallout, becuase they can rob Peter to pay Paul in a way that lower income FBs can’t. Like I said the other day, optimists borrow, real optimists lend to them.
Will BB’s bid for reappointment at the Fed be overwhelmed by the tsunami flood of foreclosures, which threaten to drown any green shoots that happen to have actually sprouted? Or will the MSM glibly ignore the connection of the foreclosure flood to Fed policies that were enacted when BB was already an FOMC member in the early 2000s?
According to the msm we are in a new bull market.All is well and a great time to give your money to goldman sachs who controls the stock market.CNBC is cheerleading all day as usual.
Who has any money to give to the stock market when economic survival is in question? (Answer: TARP recipients and beneficiaries of the Fed’s other special four-letter zero-interest loan programs to Megabank, Inc)
New T-Shirt idea:
“My bank went to the economic recovery and all I got was this lousy tax bill.”
That is cool, and I know someone who can print it too! Maybe I’ll get one!
It reminds me of a funny story. An attorney friend of mine had a Ramones T-Shirt on, (Rocket to Russia cover) and he was in St. Louis, and Joe Harley walks by and said ” Ram Ones! Ram Ones!”
CNBC - NBC - GE are shills:
Barack Obama’s campaign slogan “Yes we can!” became “Yes we did!” on November 4, 2008, thrilling his supporters nationwide.
Evidently, NBC also was quite pleased with the win, and the news network is still celebrating.
NBC is selling “YES WE DID” t-shirts online as well as at its Manhattan company store in Rockefeller Center.
“We,” NBC? Do you have a mouse in your pocket or are you just admitting how deep you’re in the tank for Obama?
Unlike the DVD NBC hawked back in November as “commemorative” to celebrate Obama’s “victorious history-making win,” the t-shirt is actually claiming success.
The store also features Barack and Michelle magnets, fit in between “Saved by the Bell,” “Superstar” and “The Tonight Show” memorabilia.
Ideologically invested. Financially invested. In the tank.
In the tank.
As are their ratings: Kathy Griffith rolls over Chris Matthews.
(Kathy frickin’ Griffith hosting Joan Rivers - and the Tiara Tots, lol.)
CABLE NEWS RACE
NITE OF AUG 10, 2009
FOXNEWS O’REILLY 3,814,000
FOXNEWS HANNITY 3,118,000
FOXNEWS BECK 2,417,000
FOXNEWS GRETA 2,388,000
FOXNEWS BAIER 1,988,000
FOXNEWS SHEP SMITH 1,833,000
MSNBC OLBERMANN 1,243,000
MSNBC MADDOW 1,082,000
CNNHN GRACE 875,000
CNN KATHY GRIFFIN 810,000
MSNBC HARDBALL 710,000
Fox aka GnOP_TV total viewership is flatter than a pancake since 2005. MSNBC viewership up 40% and growing.
Nice try though.
Ha,
CABLE NEWS RACE
NITE OF AUG 10, 2009
FOXNEWS O’REILLY 3,814,000
FOXNEWS HANNITY 3,118,000
FOXNEWS BECK 2,417,000
FOXNEWS GRETA 2,388,000
FOXNEWS BAIER 1,988,000
FOXNEWS SHEP SMITH 1,833,000
Misery loves company, Mate!
My money’s on Ben returning to Princeton. And, if he does, Paul Krugman (who favors Ben’s reappointment as Fed chair) will be outta there. Methinks that the Princeton economics department ain’t big enough for the two of them.
According to the New York Observer, Paul Krugman and his wife, Robin Wells, just purchased a $1.7 million apartment in NYC. Part of his post-Princeton life?
“…ain’t big enough for the two of them.”
Why not?
I got Plenty of nothin’… and nothin’s Plenty for me…
I see this as a promising development, except for one problem: Isn’t it against federal law?
Frankly, I don’t understand why it should be illegal; why should the Fed and Megabank, Inc have the monopoly right to control (and manipulate) the money supply? Isn’t that against Constitutional US principles?
Los Angeles Times / Nation
Local currencies cash in on recession
Communities in North Carolina, Massachusetts, Arizona and elsewhere print their own money to encourage shoppers to patronize local businesses. Local money was last popular during the Great Depression.
Towns use local money
The local bills in the town of Pittsboro, N.C. are known as the Plenty. 15,000 Plenties are in circulation. (The Abundance Foundation)
By Nicholas Riccardi
August 11, 2009
Reporting from Pittsboro, N.C. - The stimulus for this mill town turned artist’s colony arrived in the form of green bills bearing sketches of herons, turtles and trees.
A few dozen local businesses banded together this spring to distribute the Plenty — a local currency intended to replace the dollar. Now 15,000 Plenties are in circulation here, used everywhere from the organic food co-op to the feed store to, starting this month, the Piggly Wiggly supermarket.
Last popularized during the Great Depression, scrip, or locally created stand-ins for U.S. currency, is making a comeback. Pittsboro, population 2,500, is one of a handful of communities that launched its own money in recent months. It reports an avalanche of calls from other communities that have lost faith in the global financial system.
“The Plenty is not going to get siphoned off to Wall Street, or Washington, or make a stop in Bentonville on its way to China,” said B.J. Lawson, a software entrepreneur who is president of the board of the Plenty cooperative. “It gives us self-reliance.”
…
Well it isn’t counterfeiting since the bills make no pretense of being US dollars. Why are Plenties any different than any other business-issued coupons?
Plenties would be constitutionally barred if issued by a state, but they appear to be issued by a private “Plenty cooperative”.
Why does “Plenty cooperative” sound like the name of a porno star?
Why does “Plenty cooperative” sound like the name of a porno star?
Or Fed chairman or Treasury secretary…
I would answer that, but Timmy would get mad at me.
Get hip…it’s been in Vermont since 1998!
Burlington Currency Project Examining New Statewide Electronic Credit System
“The Burlington Currency Project, a nonprofit organization that created the local paper currency Burlington Bread in 1998, now hopes to develop an electronic mutual credit system that will link local currencies around the state and make it more feasible for Vermont businesses to participate.”
Local Currency ‘Burlington Bread’ Is Launchpad:
http://www.businessvermont.com/cbj/article1.htm
LOL!
Oops, meant this to go under Dennis’ porn-star comment…
“Why does “Plenty cooperative” sound like the name of a porno star?”
Maybe from a James Bond movie?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sf4xw4mE2Xk
This is sort of cute, but you can bet every product that enters Pittsboro is paid for with dollars. They are no more self reliant than any other small town.
The Transition Movement, which began in the western UK, is quite big on local currencies and regional self-reliance. I recommend a reading of The Transition Handbook.
Info on the US Transition Movement right h’yar.
Looks interesting. Too bad you have to be a global warming True Believer to participate.
While reading The Transition Handbook, I was most impressed with the idea of people learning more self-reliance skills.
I wonder how the IRS feels about this?
Yah, I thought this activity was illegal? Didn’t Ron Paul’s crew try to mint a new coin and have the operation confiscated a few years back? Does the difference lie in minting replacement coin is seen differently than printing replacement dollars?
That wasn’t “Ron Paul’s crew.” The guys that were trying to mint the coin used Ron Paul’s name, but had no official affiliation with him or his campaign and he never endorsed what they were doing.
Thanks. I knew his name was attached to it, not that they had co-oped it.
The IRS no doubt has an eye on it.. When the trade volume reaches a point where it’s worth the effort of moving in to collect what’s owed them, they will.
if the starving artists have any smarts, they’ll keep it small and be quiet about it.
It took very little time for the Plunge Protection Team to stem the selloff…
Post-Fed stock run hits wall
Data on U.S. economy take edge off early gains. Growth in Germany and France get a favorable reception, as had Fed statement leaving rates at historic lows and hinting at no drastic policy reversal.
Just buy down the rate on the 10 year note, no problemo.
Just market analysts figure out that Cash-for-Clunkers and Dough-for-Dumps have drained future demand from the automotive, housing and retail markets…
Aug 13, 2009, 10:56 a.m. EST
Retail sales drop in July despite cash-for-clunkers program
By Rex Nutting, MarketWatch
WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) — U.S. retail sales unexpectedly fell 0.1% in July, as soft sales for most types of merchandise offset a boost from the government’s cash-for-clunkers subsidy, the Commerce Department reported Thursday.
It was the first decline for seasonally adjusted sales in three months. The report shows that consumer spending is still weak despite attempts by the government to stimulate demand. Sales at most kinds of stores declined in July.
Tough times for retail
John Lonski, chief economist at Moody’s Capital Markets, talks to Kelsey Hubbard about some not-so-great news from the retail sector and connects it to the latest data about jobless claims. (Aug. 13)
Economists surveyed by MarketWatch were looking for sales to rise 0.8% in July after an upwardly revised 0.8% increase in June. See Economic Calendar.
“We know a clunker when we see one, and the July retail sales report was a real clunker,” wrote Richard Moody, chief economist for Forward Capital.
…
“Just wait until…”
Wouldn’t a lot of the C4C auto sales show up in August, though?
Yes!! The august numbers are going to blow you away! You should buy every stock you can get your hands on today and just wait for this exciting recovery news. You can’t lose!
Speaking of C4C’s, I just spoke to 2 different Asian import dealers. Both told me that they hadn’t been funded for any of the cars they sold. One dealer is having to come up with 300k to fund his end of the sales today. Both said that Government Motors gets first dibs at the $ trough. I’ve known these guys a long time, they’re not BS’n me.
Hopefully it’s because the government is making damn sure that they have destroyed the clunkers.
Good thing Stabenow can feel global warming when she’s flying. Most of us heathens just thought it was air pockets.
http://community.detnews.com/apps/blogs/henrypayneblog/index.php?blogid=2041
Few bridge trolls are as detestable as Stabbynow. She’s also advocating for a return to the “fairness doctrine” for talk radio because she’s such a champion of civil rights. By the way, her husband is also a big contributor to Air America, and this in no way influences her decisions on such matters.
If you want to know why the Republic is in danger, it’s because of those like her who are in charge of running it. The only thing I’d like to feel is the aftershock of an epic kick to her ass.
The “republic” is “in danger” all of a sudden.
Wow.
Funny I thought the republic has been in danger for a number of years.
Agreed, at least since Bush the first, more likely since LBJ.
Gee I thought the republic was in danger when Karl Rove was firing attorney’s who didn’t do his bidding in terms of going after his enemies. So much for blind justice. I thought the republic was in danger when our gov took us to war on lies, promoted waterboarding, and allowed spying without any review from FISA courts.
Now I find it is in danger because a few large conglomerates have purchased a huge number of radio channels and a congress woman wants to allow other views to be heard. God forbid the listeners should hear a rebutle to the Glen Beck/Sarah Palin propaganda stating that that the gov health plan will have death panels that send children and adults to their grave without medical care. Dumb A## protesters are all grey hairs and on Medicare but they are too dumb to know that the public option will likely look a lot like medicare and will not prevent them from getting private insurance either as a supplement or as your primary insurance. God forbid they should think about how insurance companies are monopolies, and deny sick people coverage all the time. Loose your job because of illness, better find new insurance in 18months as yours will be gone. Think your heart attack was covered guess again you didn’t tell them about a high blood pressure reading 15 years ago that was recorded when you came to the doctor to discuss your recent stressfull divorce.
Gee I thought the republic was in danger when Karl Rove was firing attorney’s who didn’t do his bidding in terms of going after his enemies.
Yeah, well those days are over.
Now we got a president with a brain instead of a clueless cracker who takes vacations more often than a French factory-worker goes on strike.
Take a couple of deep breaths. It’s going to be OK.
That’s all correct too measton, what a mess. I have no children sadly, and you know, I think it it is just better to say to Hell with health insurance. Kill me, or drag me to the ER, and if you do, and if I am unconscious, I won’t pay the bill.
I will file an affirmative defense that I didn’t enter into any contract. I have never taken a dime of anything from this country, and it is in such a mess, and I love children, and my little nieces, nephews, friends children, etc., that I thank GOD I have no children. Sad thing for me to say too. Really sad thing for me to say. I have never seen such a mess as our country is in today.
Also, what I said is not directed at the fine and beautiful parents on here, like Muggy, Chile, etc.
I am making an existential point.
If I don’t have children, “The Child”, then, I cannot miss “The Child”.
Therefore, I am grateful, considering the state of this country, I do not have children. Sonething incorporeal or abstract cannot be missed, but the hole in your heart is always there from the missed opportunity. That, though is partially filled by the likes of Chile Dad and Muggy, and also my friends here at home who have great kids and call me “Uncle Greg”.
I adore children.
Here’s what my big mouth meant to say. Since I screwed up and didn’t have kids earlier, I am glad I am not having them right now, at my age. That’s all. Ignore the fancy crap above.
P.S. I love kids.
“…Dumb A## protesters are all grey hairs and on Medicare but they are too dumb to know that the public option will likely look a lot like medicare and will not prevent them from getting private insurance either as a supplement or as your primary insurance.”
Oh, about an actual “pretzel” chewing “TrueDeceiver”?
Filed under: “TrueDeceivers” … or… “I’m as confused as a baby in a topless bar.”
Has Joe the plumber changed his name or is this his real name?
Heck, if I was at his bar @ 2am I’d probably help the “TrueDeceiver” myself… Oh, and blaming Opie for not be able to get ahead…I’m certain he complained just as LOUD for 8 years to Cheney-Shrub…except, come to think of it… Shrub rarely had “public” meetings
“Nick Sidorick, 38, who said he owns a sports bar in Clearfield, Pa., drove an hour to attend his first town hall Wednesday after staying up until 2 a.m. the night before making signs to protest government intrusion. “I work 14 hours a day and I can’t get ahead because of what the government takes from me.”
Now I find it is in danger because a few large conglomerates have purchased a huge number of radio channels and a congress woman wants to allow other views to be heard. God forbid the listeners should hear a rebutle to the Glen Beck/Sarah Palin propaganda stating that that the gov health plan will have death panels that send children and adults to their grave without medical care.
Why FORCE a rebuttle? Why not just start your own liberal show? Oh yea, it’s called Air America, and NO ONE is listening! No one wants to hear liberal radio. If I want to hear Nancy Pelosi’s viewpoint, I will just open a newspaper in the MSM. You cant force me to listen to it. I cant help it no one wants to hear your liberal message..
Good post Chris.
Most of us heathens just thought it was air pockets. For me, it’s the chili.
:))
“I’ve got Tampa Bay friends, boomers mostly, who became empty nesters only to find themselves laid off from once-respectable, sustaining jobs.
Now they worry their savings won’t keep up with their living expenses. They cast about for alternative, not-too-cold places to live. Tennessee — one of the nearby states aggressively wooing Floridians with “cheap” land, lakefront promises and smiling pitchmen like Eric “Ponch” Estrada of the old CHiPS TV show — seems as popular a place as any to resettle.”
http://www.tampabay.com/news/business/article1027149.ece
Ponch is doing anti-DUI commercials in NM. Good to see someone has work!
What! He isn’t selling RE on informercials anymore. nothing like Ponch and his teeth telling you to buy a lot at exciting Bella Vista at the height of the boom. Wonder how those developments are doing now?
Bella Vista’s developer has gone BK!
It’s kinda a weird (this article) because the same thing could have been basically written in 2006. Not long after I moved here in 2005 people were placing “move to Tennessee” flyers in people’s windshields, and the half-back phenomenon was articulated before the housing bubble was…
I really feel like Florida is just getting started, oddly. I’ve posted here before, and so did Muir, that people were still partying in Pinellas, Hillsborough, Miami-Dade, Monroe, etc. until this summer.
I remember that too Muggy, when I lived there 2004-2008. Talk already, early, about half-backers.
You have baby boomer friends? Wow
Arizona had the third-highest foreclosure rate last month with one in every 135 housing units receiving a foreclosure filing, according to the latest market report from RealtyTrac, an online marketplace for foreclosure properties.
Foreclosure filings — default notices, scheduled auctions and bank repossessions — were reported on 19,694 properties statewide, up 17 percent from June and 47.5 percent from July 2008.
..and yes, here in the Prescott and Verde Valley area the mortgage rats have crawled from under their rocks and have been aggressively plugging their latest commission racket for the past six months- reverse mortgages. I saw this one coming. If Americans can fall for “death panels” in health care debate, they can fall for anything. And so it goes..
Obama Explained:
Like narcissists, psychopaths lack empathy and regard other people as mere instruments of gratification and utility or as objects to be manipulated. Psychopaths and narcissists have no problem to grasp ideas and to formulate choices, needs, preferences, courses of action, and priorities. But they are shocked when other people do the very same.
Most people accept that others have rights and obligations. The psychopath rejects this quid pro quo. As far as he is concerned, only might is right. People have no rights and he, the psychopath, has no obligations that derive from the “social contract”. The psychopath holds himself to be above conventional morality and the law. The psychopath cannot delay gratification. He wants everything and wants it now. His whims, urges, catering to his needs, and the satisfaction of his drives take precedence over the needs, preferences, and emotions of even his nearest and dearest.
Consequently, psychopaths feel no remorse when they hurt or defraud others. They don’t possess even the most rudimentary conscience. They rationalize their (often criminal) behavior and intellectualize it. Psychopaths fall prey to their own primitive defense mechanisms (such as narcissism, splitting, and projection). The psychopath firmly believes that the world is a hostile, merciless place, prone to the survival of the fittest and that people are either “all good” or “all evil”. The psychopath projects his own vulnerabilities, weaknesses, and shortcomings unto others and force them to behave the way he expects them to (this defense mechanism is known as “projective identification”). Like narcissists, psychopaths are abusively exploitative and incapable of true love or intimacy.
Narcissistic psychopath are particularly ill-suited to participate in the give and take of civilized society. Many of them are misfits or criminals. White collar psychopaths are likely to be deceitful and engage in rampant identity theft, the use of aliases, constant lying, fraud, and con-artistry for gain or pleasure.
Psychopaths are irresponsible and unreliable. They do not honor contracts, undertakings, and obligations. They are unstable and unpredictable and rarely hold a job for long, repay their debts, or maintain long-term intimate relationships.
Psychopaths are vindictive and hold grudges. They never regret or forget a thing. They are driven, and dangerous.
You mean “Bush Explained” right?
I picture Obama as more of a con man or carnival barker than a sociopath.
Narcissists and psychopaths rarely have happy families.
I think Rush resembles these descriptions quite well, though.
“…psychopaths feel no remorse when they hurt or defraud others. They don’t possess even the most rudimentary conscience. They rationalize their (often criminal) behavior and intellectualize it.”
“…Psychopaths are vindictive and hold grudges. They never regret or forget a thing. They are driven, and dangerous.”
:The psychopath holds himself to be above conventional morality and the law. The psychopath cannot delay gratification. He wants everything and wants it now. His whims, urges, catering to his needs, and the satisfaction of his drives take precedence over the needs, preferences, and emotions of even his nearest and dearest.”
There’s a reason why I post it: Cheney-Shrub
Looks like “civilian” Shrub is going to get to feel the working end of “Dickey Boy’s” “I’m right…you’re wrong” hickory paddle!
I never thought I’d live to see the day where Republican’s go into “Cannibalism” mode!
“…Is it really true that Cheney was asked to head a search committee for potential VP’s for Bush, and came back with an endorsement of himself as the best possible running mate? That sounds surreal to me.
Barton Gellman: “Cheney actually recommended against himself, but did so with arguments that were easily defeated and that Bush was inclined to take as a kind of challenge. That’s what fascinated me so much about the process, and why I devoted a full chapter to it in my book. It has some big surprises: for instance, that nobody ever saw Cheney’s medical records. And look for the previously undisclosed account of what happened to Frank Keating, one of Cheney’s rivals. A cautionary tale for those who thought of crossing the VP later.”
You really need to swallow that bitter pill
You are so busted. You’re really Dick Cheney.
Why Ms. Garofalo, so pleased to make your aquaintance!
The time has come, the Walrus said,
To talk of many things:
Of shoes—and ships—and sealing-wax—
And cabbages—and kings
Oh darn it. Busted
I am the Egg Man, “Howdy Sir!”.
The communist party in Russia liked to ‘diagnose’ people they disagreed with as well. It’s handy. Just take your political opponent, declare him crazy, then lock him up and drug him for the next decade.
Personally, I can’t understand why people think ‘death panels’ are a bad thing. I think dropping 250k into medical expenses on an 86 year old bedridden person to get them to 87 and change is a crime.
It depends on how badly the family needs income from the dying persons SS and/or reverse mortgage.
Dirty little secret around hospitals.
Keep granny alive and keep those checks coming!
clarification - this is not a slam against hospitals and doctors.
they will take heroic measures only at the family’s request but I know a case where the daughter falls to pieces every time bed-ridden Mom goes to the hospital but somehow can’t find time to visit the woman except to collect the SS/pension checks.
You gotta feel sorry for everyone involved except the daughter.
Icky.
In 1978, I had a summer internship in NYC. I was living in an NYU dorm with a fellow intern whom I invited to visit my great aunt for a weekend.
My great aunt was an elderly widow who lived in a very nice house in Bronxville, NY. So, roomie and I hopped on the train and went out for a visit.
Great Aunt Fray really rolled out the red carpet for us, and we had a great time. But, being Fray, she had a tendency to speak her mind. Over the dinner table, we discussed the demise of her sister, my grandmother Madeline. She’d died four years earlier.
Toward the end of her life, Madeline was being kept alive, and this was very obvious to everyone. Fray begged the medical folks in charge of Madeline’s care to “Let this creature die!” They wouldn’t do it.
I still remember Fray’s emphatic tone, and I’ll never forget what she said next: “That’s why I have a living will!”
Aunt Fray died in her sleep during the summer of 1997. She was 99 years old.
That’s why I’ll have one, too.
And that’s why I have one right now. I like to refer to it as the Aunt Fray section of my will.
I’ve got one too. My great-gran Ida had an almost identical story as did your grandma Madeline, AZ. She finally died at 97 after about 8 years of serious misery and bewilderment. I lived with my gran and helped take care of her for a while, so I got to see exactly how bad things can get.
*shudder *
I’m sorry Oly.
How about making euthanasia legal? If an elderly or extremely sick person wants to die — then let them. If they are mentally incapable of making a decision, then the kids can ask a judge for the OK. That would cut down on medical bills.
I actually find it astounding that we can’t choose to die if we want to, given a sound mind.
Doctor Kevorkian, call your office.
Bill
I like Kevorkian and Figer he had some great ideas maybe the wrong person to do it,
But I do not want someone to wipe my but for $8 hr because i am to invalid to do it myself.
So why cant I chose to say enough is enough and nobody gets sued or arrested?
LOL, thanks Bill.
My mother is not a well woman (Diabetic), and my sister calls me the “Food Police”. One day, at a family function, I had enough and called her the “Food Kevorkian”. It shut her up. I had to explain the joke to my mother.
“I actually find it astounding that we can’t choose to die if we want to, given a sound mind.”
Sure you can any time you want. Take an overdose of aspirin, tylenol, just go for a swim in the ocean or lake and keep swimming away from land. There are many ways for those of a sound mind.
+1. Just don’t call for rescue when you change your mind.
The ones who don’t have the option are those not-of-sound-body, who are stuck in a hospital bed with lots of tubes attached. I feel for them.
just go for a swim in the ocean or lake and keep swimming away from land
This didn’t work so well for Burt Reynold’s character in in The End (1978 flick).
How about making euthanasia legal? If an elderly or extremely sick person wants to die — then let them.
Um - you do know that euthanasia and suicide aren’t the same thing right?
Euthanasia isn’t necessarily voluntary, but it is (supposed to be) painless. Suicide is voluntary but isn’t necessarily painless.
Understood. I just think if you request of your Dr. to die and you are of sound mind, then you should be able to.
Might not be easy to commit suicide if you are totally bedridden. Committing suicide also brings up insurance, religious issues, etc. whereas maybe euthanasia doesn’t?
If you can be of “sound mind” AND request to die, can you be of sound mind and request the doctor just.. cut off a healthy limb?
You betcha potential. Where in the heck does some religious or political doctrine tell ME what to do with my life! Freedom? Ha!!!!!!!!!
Hey joey, that is an interesting question, but I would guess the answer is no.
I might cut my head off though, if they would let me. (Shakes middle-aged ATE-UP regular blue-eyed, brown head).
howzabout a finger.. Hey doc.. I’m of sound mind. All i want you to do is chop off this finger.
——
Or, how about this: “Hey doc. I’m of sound mind. I want you to take the life of the person in that bed.”
Assuming a sound mind is qualified to make life or death decisions, whether the life it decides to take is it’s own or someone else’s is immaterial.
I can’t stand the thought of setting in a nursing home in my final years . I wish I would just go by a massive heart attack instead.
Maybe I will go out in the woods and hope for a encounter with a bear .
Really ,the subject of what to do with older people is really a
hard subject because the idea of big brother deciding is scary
also .
Some insurance companies already make decisions on what to do with older people.
Personally, I can’t understand why people think ‘death panels’ are a bad thing. I think dropping 250k into medical expenses on an 86 year old bedridden person to get them to 87 and change is a crime.
The key issue is - who’s dropping the $250k. It is very much a crime to force others to pay for it. If it’s being voluntarily paid for by the 86-year-old, or his/her family, or a charity, etc., or by insurance that he/she bought, then there’s no crime.
Having buried both my parents with horrible deaths Althzeimers (sp) , never wanted to know how to spell it, and Cancer, I agree 100%.
However, I take it further. I think anybody should be able to take the “magic bus” anytime they want to get out of here. Of course, with independent psychological and/or medical evaluations to confirm sanity. Switzerland is light years ahead of us, for now.
Oh, dear, ATE. I’m very, very sorry to hear this. Now, I knew you were taking care of your mom for awhile there, you mentioned it once, and then it seemed you were moving somewhere else so I assumed the worst, but didn’t want to pry at a delicate subject or be insensitive. But this must have been quite recent, then. I really am sorry.
Thank You, for many things too, I might add. Are you feeling better Oly?
Take a look at the debt clock and see what the unfunded costs have become.
One of the problems of politicians getting elected on give-away programs is that they aren’t the ones paying for the give-aways.
Death panels are a bad thing because you’re killing people who don’t want to die, did not prepare themselves for death, or are unable to give permission to kill them.. etc.
—–
It’d be much cleaner and save lots more money to set up the Suicide Booths.
Some one in ten Americans are on antidepressants.. A lot of them would willingly die in bad moments or if we outlaw the drugs.. so the Booths should be easily accessible, 24/7.
And then there are the teens who are so confused they’d do it because their friends recommend it. Suicide is a clean, easy way out of one’s problems..
i’m almost inspired to write some copy for the TV ads. “What are you waiting for? Take it from me. Things are not going to get any better!”
Oh yeah.. a lot of people, young and old, would willingly pull their own plugs. There’s no need to do it just to old people against their will. Imagine how much money it would save us if millions of self-declared worthless people off themselves.. and money is the most important thing, right?
joey, except for the kids, I agree with you. even if you are tongue in cheek. No children. Just adults.
no way… when it comes to absorbing needed resources and money, kids are the worst offenders. They produce nothing. When they do work, they clog the system with low-paid employment and usually replace a older, more productive and higher paid people.
Lets get our priorities straight.. We need to preserve money.. period.
Feeling compassion, showing age prejudices and otherwise getting sidetracked is counterproductive.
Wow your post reminds me of an episode from the original Star Trek called “A Taste of Armageddon.
i’ve seen it but my memory was vague so i hadda look it up.
Two societies are at war. Instead of actually fighting, they play computer war games, and if someone is cyber-killed, the actual person walks into the suicide booth. Cyber-destroyed infrastructure and property is thereafter unusable..
(this scheme seems to assume you’re up against an honest and forthright opponent.. why on Eminiar would you go to war with nice people like that?)
Kirk is then informed that during the last Vendikar attack the Enterprise was destroyed by a tri-cobalt satellite and the entire ship’s crew must be terminated within 24 hours.” Wiki.
a tri-cobalt satellite.. wow.. i bet one of them things makes a loud cyber-bang.
“It’d be much cleaner and save lots more money to set up the Suicide Booths.”
Joey, that’s awesome, LOL.
I think dropping 250k into medical expenses on an 86 year old bedridden person to get them to 87 and change is a crime.
Except when YOU are that 86 year old person with a sound mind. My grandfather was 88, sharp as a wit, but ended up being bedridden. He would still tell when I owed him 50 cents when I went to get him something from the store. His mind was still there, just he couldnt get around…
Funny you should mention reverse mortgages. I was at a neighborhood meeting last eve, and this was vigorously discussed after the official agenda was covered.
And why might this be? Because our humble little nabe is experiencing the negative ramifications of this type of financial engineering. Seems that a former resident took out a reverse mortgage, then went on a truly baffling spending spree.
[Yes, I know. I've told this story here before. So, let's just fast-forward to the end and say that the lady's no longer able to live in the house, the place was put up for sale at a lofty wishing price, it didn't sell, and it's now in foreclosure.]
Guy in last night’s discussion is a fan of the Green Valley oldies station, KGVY. (If you like the Big Bands, this is your station. And, for those of you outside this area, Green Valley is a retirement town ’bout 20 miles south of Tucson.) Any-hoo, guy said that it seems like all the KGVY ads are for reverse mortgages.
He’s of the opinion that the old folks would be better off ignoring the siren songs of the reverse mortgage ads. Instead, they should just sell their Green Valley casas for what they can get for them, then move on.
Doesn’t sound like any kind of reverse mortgage I’m familiar with. In a normal reverse mortgage, you aren’t required to pay the balance until you sell the house. If she moved out, the terms may allow a forced sale. I don’t know.
Our elderly neighbor fell in her shower and broke her femur in December 2007. It took her three hours to crawl to her phone to call 911 for help.
After surgery and while she was in a rehab center it was decided that she could no longer live in her house. After she got out of the rehab center, she moved in with her eldest son in northern Arizona.
A few weeks later, the family put a mail forwarding request in with the Tucson post office. The bank caught wind of that, and, well, it was time to fix the house up and sell it. The family paid for some remodeling work, and the house was listed for sale in June 2008.
Initial price was around $225,000. Way to high for this nabe, but we presumed that this figure was the amount for which our (now former) neighbor had reverse mortgaged the property.
The house didn’t sell.
There was at least one price cut that I know of, but the real estate agency sign came down in February 2009. I assumed that this was because the place was sold.
But it continued to sit there and fall into disrepair.
At a June 2009 neighborhood meeting, I heard that the house had been foreclosed upon.
So, there you have it. A 2006 reverse mortgage becomes a 2009 foreclosure.
So the bank foreclosed on itself?
We know that the foreclosing institution is Wells Fargo. We don’t know which institution issued the reverse mortgage.
Good point, better stated as 2009 REO.
In Canada they don’t even call these things reverse mortgages, but Home Income Plans. They emphasize it’s tax free, so here you go, tax free income. Lots of smiling seniors and supportive children in the adds. A little ditty with someone singing “Wouldn’t it be nice”, and then say all the nice things you could do with the “tax free cash.” Makes me nauseous.
My tag line for these things:
“You spent most of your life paying us interest, don’t you want to do it again?”
A grandparental update (mainly for Palmetto):
My g-rents miraculously managed to sell their home in Minden, NV for only $44,000 off asking ($385K down from $429K). It would have languished on the market like all the other houses priced in that range in that area but the buyer’s daddy bought it for her upon her insistence that it was the ONLY house she could live in.
Spoiled princess = knifecatcher. Of course, OPM bought her the house, so I’m sure there will be no regrets.
When the appraisal came in at $375,000 my grandparents were absolutely incensed. My grandmother kept saying, “The appraiser only saw the OUTSIDE of the house, that’s why it’s so low.”
Um, yeah, grandma, the aqua carpet and the glossy white ceramic tiles made to look like turquoise-infused marble and the bathrooms from the early 90s add so much value.
Is irrationality a free bonus with every home purchase?
Still, the house was paid off (courtesy of the bubblicious sale of the first home they had: a 2400sf ranch style home on 5-acres — originally bought for $31,000; it sold in 2006 in the mid $500) so they really only lost Monopoly money.
Anyway, we completed their move into my parents home — 50 years of stuff and one cantankerous grandfather with fully one-third of a three car garage filled with “necessities” he hasn’t seen or used in years does not make for an easy move. We packed their furniture and unnecessary items into a “POD” for storage and put the necessities in the trucks and drove them down.
They’re waiting until after Christmas of this year to buy a new home, probably in Mission Viejo where they raised my mom and uncle and lived for 25 years. Most of their old friends still live there and they’ll be within thirty minutes of all of their immediate family.
I just want to thank you again, Palmetto, for understanding and giving really good advice back in February when this we-bought-a-house-sight-unseen-in-Hemet shenanigan was going down. As my grandparents age and become more dependent on our care, I will always think of you with a thankful heart.
That was a nice thing to say hllnwlz. Glad it worked out well, and yes, Palmy is a great guy.
Glad to hear everything worked out for you hllnwlz. I remember your post about the situation you described above.
Congratulations, that is a bubble success story. They are so few and far between.
When does Obama have to make a decision regarding reappointing BB.
Given that Bernanke has poured cash on Wallstreet, wouldn’t they have an interest in keeping their golden goose in office? If so wouldn’t they have an incentive to pump the markets??
Good strategy idea: Unload your stocks before BB’s reappointment date.
I would think the opposite PB. Berstanke is a dollar killer of the first order. The market should head to the moon if he gets reappointed and it won’t have anything to do with a “recovery”.
My thought is that the market will continue its bull-run in anticipation of his reappointment. Certainly you don’t believe yourself to be the only interested onlooker who figured out the market “should head to the moon” with BB’s reappointment?
Buy on the rumor, sell before the news.
True that.
http://www.theolympian.com/southsound/story/938312.html
“Trust purchases 530 acres of forest in Mason County”
More than 530 acres of forested wetlands near Matlock will be permanently protected by Mason County and the Capitol Land Trust through a purchase agreement with the previous owner, Green Diamond Resource Co…
The mosaic of wetlands, streams and forests provides habitat for river otter, black bear and elk, as well as spawning and rearing habitat for coho, summer and fall chinook, chum, winter steelhead and cutthroat trout…
This is just so wonderful! If you saw the area, how lovely it is! Conservation efforts like this are really picking up steam around here, now that lumber prices have fallen so dramatically and now that greedster developers don’t get the rewards they used to get…oh, this is so great.
You know what? I think we’re gonna actually have some forests and streams left, after all!
(from the article)
said Eric Schallon, the company’s Washington land management and business-development manager. “Both Green Diamond and Capitol Land Trust are focused on conserving fish, wildlife and clean water.”
When I read that I snorted with such massive derision that I almost blew my face inside out. Green Diamond?! Conserving?! Those wretches! Seriously, I don’t know how some people can say things with a straight face. If only the reporter had given him a brisk slap. Or else barfed on him.
Reminds me of this J.O.
http://www.tampabay.com/news/environment/wildlife/article530206.ece
That’s awesome, OlyGal! I love to see special places get protected…
Good Oly! , and I know you know the beauty of it, and appreciate it so much!
From behind “The O.C.” :
Now remember kids, “”The O.C.” …is ground zero for the “young repubicans” in the “Golden” state!
(Hwy wonders if any of the “TrueDeceivers” are going to show up and yell & scream (In a respectful, good citizen sort of way) to this allocation of their local county tax money’s?)
Pity the poor public servant?
A rather comfortable retirement awaits Bryan Speegle, former embattled director of OC Public Works, who also headed up the county’s doomed El Toro Airport project. (We tried to reach Speegle several times for his perspective on all this, but haven’t heard back.)
Anyway, the county tells us that Speegle earned $78.82 an hour when he stepped down - or $163,946 a year. His (arguably very generous) retirement plan gives him 2.7 percent of his salary for each year of service to the county, once he hits age 55.
If you do the math by hand, you see that he’ll be collecting roughly 70 percent of his highest average pay (computed by averaging his 36 highest-paid months) for the rest of his life.
And that translates to about $9,600 a month - or $115,000 a year, until Speegle draws his last breath, according to the benefits calculator at the Orange County Employees Retirement System web site. (These numbers are not exact, as several variables go into the calculation, but you get the general idea.)
But vaaaiiiit…there’s more!
Golden parachute indeed! And there are many others:
* Assistant Sheriff Charles Walters, one of the last members of disgraced former Sheriff Mike Carona’s executive team, retired after some 33 years. He’s collecting about $18,714 a month - or $223,218 a year - in retirement.
* Carona himself is hauling in the same $17,330 per month - or $207,979 per year - in retirment as he did while working.
* Poor Bob Citron - the former treasurer whose crazy investments helped usher in Orange County’s $1.6 billion bankruptcy - is stuck with a far less generous retirement formula than the other guys. Citron only gets $92,900 a year in his retirement.
Embattled county manager will collect millions in retirement pay:
August 13th, 2009, by Teri Sforza OC Register
See, this is the kind of stuff that makes me want to storm the gubmint offices carrying a pitchfork and a torch. Astronomical retirement packages, courtesy of the good taxpaying citizens of (your community name here).
Testify! It makes me wild with rage, too!
That formula is very close to the military 1/2 pay at 20 years. The real problem was that a civil servant was making Fortune 500 VP money.
So Andrew Jeffery writes an article today in Yahoo Business, Three Ways to Predict the End of the Housing Bounce, where he cites the NAR’s statistic that “fully one-third of purchase transactions” currently are first time buyers. He’s focusing on the $8,000 credit ending November 30. I think he should focus on that “fully one-third” number. That seems awfully low, akin to the 2004-2005 activity. Unless I’m interpreting that wrong.
In case you don’t have one, here is a link to the very entertaining “U.S. Debt Clock”:
http://www.usdebtclock.org/
That is interesting actually (moreso than I expected). It really needs links to data sources/discussions though.
In the “Chuckle Of The Day” department:
Aug 13 (Reuters) - Bank of America Corp sued Colonial BancGroup Inc for more than $1 billion in loans and cash, and urged a federal court to order the struggling lender not to sell certain assets, pushing the company into further trouble.
Bank of America, which was the collateral agent for certain loans of Ocala Funding LLC, said Colonial refused to return more than $1 billion of loans and cash which it held as a custodian, agent and bailee. Ocala Funding was a commercial paper vehicle sponsored by Taylor, Bean & Whitaker Mortgage Corp (TBW).
Colonial is almost certainly done; my only shock is that the FDIC hasn’t (yet) come in and seized that joint.
But this is truly amusing. Bank of America gets caught screwing around with the Merrill acquisition, and the SEC tries to do an under-the-counter deal with them, only to get slapped down by an intrepid Judge (who is yet to rule on the finality of the matter.)
BAC, of course, “acquired” Countrywide, one of the worst of the offenders in the liar loan and game-playing department during the housing bubble, and its former CEO (”Tangelo” Mozilo) is under investigation as well.
So now BAC, having gotten apparently hosed in playing intermediary for Colonial and TBW (both of which got nailed with an FBI investigation and ultimately a subpoena) now goes to court and sues, claiming to be due money back that it put forward for companies that are alleged to have been lying, cheating and stealing in the mortgage business.
Hmmmm…. Pot, meet kettle.
Now of course the key word in all of this mess, so far, is alleged. After all, we’re all entitled to our day in court, and until proven, they’re allegations, not facts.
But I still find it amusing beyond words that one of the worst apparent offenders (indeed, they had the SEC come after them) in the “I like to play games” department is now suing because, they allege, someone else played games with them!
All I have to say to Ken Lewis and BAC is this: Karma is a bitch!
(From K. Denninger)
Amero rumors are popping up on my fav conspiracy site again. Is there any legitimacy to this idea?
According to Snopes, there’s no veracity to the Amero rumors. I don’t see how Snopes can know everything though. Time will tell!
This wouldn’t be due to the recent get together in Mexico?
Why would the PTB of Mexico want to get folded into our PTB? They know they’d be lower on the totem pole than they were in Mex. The current system works fine for both PTBs. A lawless country on the border is a handy thing for the big boyz of both countries. Why mess a good thing up?
Maybe not so much of a good thing: Notes from Narcoland
See Germany, East.
Their PTB lost control and subsequently lost their country. Are you saying this will happen in Mexico?
I’m saying it’s very beneficial for a weak economy to merge with a strong economy; the PTB would just go along for the ride mostly.
Plus the Canadians know they would be better off kicking out Quebec and entering the Union as several states.
Get ready to puke
NY Post
First it was the banks and automakers that got a helping hand from Uncle Sam — and soon some New York City apartment complexes could get one, too.
A bill winding its way through Congress proposes to prop up deteriorating apartment complexes by injecting $2 billion from the Troubled Asset Relief Program into an effort to stabilize multifamily properties in default or foreclosure.
The bill, which is called the TARP for Main Street Act and was sponsored by House Financial Services Committee Chairman Barney Frank (D-Mass.) and Rep. Nydia Velazquez (D-Brooklyn and Manhattan), would use TARP funds that have been returned by banks and plow it into programs that, according to the bill, would create “sustainable financing” for the complexes as well as provide funding for property rehabilitation.
The House is considering the measure, which focuses on apartment buildings with units that are either rent stabilized or receive government subsidies.
Many developers during the housing boom bought rent-regulated apartments by borrowing against the properties themselves and betting they could make hefty returns by converting them into market-rate buildings.
However, thanks to the recession and the collapse of the real estate market, many developers are now struggling to make mortgage payments, let alone finance repairs and upkeep of the properties they own.
“Just about everyone who purchased an asset in 2006 and 2007 is under water, According to data released last month from Real Capital Analytics, 120 properties in Manhattan, including 84 apartment buildings, were considered “troubled.”
Dina Levy of the Urban Homesteading Assistance Board said 70,000 New York City apartments, or about 6 percent of the city’s roughly 1.2 million rent-regulated units, are at risk of deterioration in part because of the market crunch.
Despite those numbers, Gluck, who in addition to Riverton also bought 16 Mitchell-Lama buildings , told The Post that the situation facing developers isn’t as dire as some would believe.
Indeed, Gluck said many loans don’t need a bailout because large local lenders are working with developers to prevent complexes from defaulting.
Nevertheless, Gluck, who stressed he maintains his properties, said the bill sounded like a good idea, and that real estate developers might as well collect from the government since everyone else was already getting handouts.
“As long as there is a long list of people out there with their caps in hand, why should everyone else be getting a free run?” Gluck said. “If it staves off some bank foreclosures, it is good for real estate and good for tenants.”
“As long as there is a long list of people out there with their caps in hand, why should everyone else be getting a free run?”
When I was at NYC planning, that the argument other made for raising taxes to subsidize “good manufacturing jobs” as opposed to “bad retail jobs” and finance jobs for people from the suburbs. Everything is subsidized.
Of course if everything is subsidized, the winners are whoever is subsidized more. And they win a bigger share of a shrinking pot.
The largest disparity can be seen between the rents of these longtime residents versus the newbies. For instance, Steinberg has lived in Stuy Town for nearly 30 years and pays less than $1,000 a month for her onebedroom.The same space, newly renovated, will cost an incoming market-rate tenant roughly $2,500.
Other than those who are currently in litigation against Tishman Speyer, many unhappy tenants have turned to the Stuy Town Lux Living blog to voice their rage about all things Stuyvesant Town and Peter Cooper Village. The site is a catalog of nightmare stories about rats, bugs, dirty water, trash buildup, crime and even a dubious tale of one college student defecating in a stairwell.The blog—which receives about 26,000 views a month—makes living in Stuy Town seem absolutely hellish.
jeeze… the frogs are splashing and thrashing in the pot.. poor things.
Compassionate Barney might pour a little cold water in there, but everyone knows it’s a wasted effort..
.. heartbreaking to watch…
So, when TARP money is repaid, it gets redistributed.
Tip of the Day: Predict where it will next be redistributed and position one’s self accordingly.
Corollary: The quicker TARP funds are repaid, the more stimulus they can generate, through the velocity they generate.
..makes sense that a fast turnover generates the most activity, and taxpayeres get the most bang for the buck..
So, you wouldn’t want to invest TARP money in long term projects or loans.. a quickest turnover is the best.
Assuming we do want maximum stimulus, what currently suffering economic segment is known to be capable of a quick recovery, if only they had some money to play with?
NYPOST repost
First it was the banks and automakers that got a helping hand from Uncle Sam — and soon some New York City apartment complexes could get one, too.
A bill winding its way through Congress proposes to prop up deteriorating apartment complexes by injecting $2 billion from the Troubled Asset Relief Program into an effort to stabilize multifamily properties in default or foreclosure.
The bill, which is called the TARP for Main Street Act and was sponsored by House Financial Services Committee Chairman Barney Frank (D-Mass.) and Rep. Nydia Velazquez (D-Brooklyn and Manhattan), would use TARP funds that have been returned by banks and plow it into programs that, according to the bill, would create “sustainable financing” for the complexes as well as provide funding for property rehabilitation.
The House is considering the measure, which focuses on apartment buildings with units that are either rent stabilized or receive government subsidies.
Many developers during the housing boom bought rent-regulated apartments by borrowing against the properties themselves and betting they could make hefty returns by converting them into market-rate buildings.
However, thanks to the recession and the collapse of the real estate market, many developers are now struggling to make mortgage payments, let alone finance repairs and upkeep of the properties they own.
“Just about everyone who purchased an asset in 2006 and 2007 is under water,
Nevertheless, Gluck, who stressed he maintains his properties, said the bill sounded like a good idea, and that real estate developers might as well collect from the government since everyone else was already getting handouts.
“As long as there is a long list of people out there with their caps in hand, why should everyone else be getting a free run?” Gluck said. “If it staves off some bank foreclosures, it is good for real estate and good for tenants.”
Why we don’t have riots in the streets I just don’t understand. This guy gambles and US gov bails him out.
Aug. 13 (Bloomberg) — Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and JPMorgan Chase & Co. would be barred from a planned U.S. carbon- emissions market or face trading restrictions under proposals by Democratic senators crafting climate change legislation.
At least nine members of the majority party say speculation by Wall Street banks may cause excessive price swings in the cap-and-trade system of pollution allowances at the center of President Barack Obama’s plan to curb global warming.
The senators say they may limit participation to polluters needing permits, ban derivatives or impose stricter regulations than exist in today’s energy markets.
“The volatility that has existed in the oil market is exactly what we don’t want to happen in carbon markets,” said Senator Maria Cantwell, a Democrat from Washington state who wants to exclude financial companies from the carbon market. “The banks contributed to that, and the banks continue to contribute to it.”
Most senators favor letting financial companies trade carbon-dioxide permits, said Kevin Book, “”ie most get contributions from them and are bought and paid for. “” Said Measton
Markets ‘Will Die’
Goldman Sachs spokesman Michael Duvally said the company had no comment. The bank “will continue to act as a market maker in emissions trading,” including carbon dioxide, according to an environmental policy paper it issued.
Curbs would apply to any bank that wanted to participate in the U.S. market, including some of Europe’s largest carbon traders such as Britain’s Barclays Plc, Societe Generale SA of France and Deutsche Bank AG of Germany.
Markets will have inadequate liquidity without bank participation, Bill Winters, co-chief executive officer of JPMorgan’s investment bank, said at a July 23 press conference in New York.
“Really if their is money to be made companies that need to trade these won’t find the money I think not JPM” said Measton
Carbon markets “will die, and the temperature on the planet will go up by a couple of degrees, more than it would have otherwise, and we’ll be really sorry about it,” Winters said.
Oh no threats. This is just another way for JPM and Goldman to squeeze money out of consumers. Regulated utilities have been able for the most part to thwart these leaches. (Except for Enron in california) Cap and trade in my opinion is a way around this.
Attitudes in Congress have been shaped by banks’ role in the financial crisis and the Treasury bailouts they received, said Senator Amy Klobuchar.
Apparently they haven’t been shaped enough since the majority of you support giving them the right to rig the system.
“The worst possible outcome is a cap-and-trade bill which is cap-and-trade in name only,” Karmali said in a phone interview from London. “What those of us in the carbon market are hoping is that some of the excessive and burdensome market restrictions that are being proposed will fall away.”
Yep sell them to the public with restrictions then slowly remove restrictions see Glass Steagle act.
Cantwell, the Washington senator, would require all trading to be executed through exchanges rather than over the counter and would allow only polluters to trade emissions allowances.
Over-the-counter trades accounted for 46 percent of the European Union’s emissions trading market in the three months through June, according to data by New Energy Finance, a London- based research group.
Senator Byron Dorgan, a North Dakota Democrat, said he will oppose creating any carbon-trading market.
“It won’t be very long before we have derivatives, we’ll have swaps, we’ll have synthetic swaps, you name it, we’ll have all of them and it’ll be a field day for speculation,” Dorgan said July 17 on the Senate floor.
“There is a growing faction of senators demonizing the potential role Wall Street will have in pollution derivatives markets, and with good reason,” said Tyson Slocum, energy program director for Public Citizen, a Washington-based advocacy group. “The odds are that the Senate simply has too many hurdles to overcome to get this bill done this year.”
“There is a growing faction of senators demonizing the potential role Wall Street will have in pollution derivatives markets, and with good reason,”
What do you know? The Senators are catching on to how Megabank, Inc’s market manipulation schemes have destroyed the ability of free markets to properly price assets. Do they realize that by artificially funneling gambling monies to Wall Street firms, the Fed’s money-printing schemes are equally destructive?
“I feel it when I fly” LOL, These kooks crack me up!
Sen. Debbie Stabenow, Energy Leader.
Detroit, Mich. - Michigan just experienced its coldest July on record; global temperatures haven’t risen in more than a decade; Great Lakes water levels have resumed their 30-year cyclical rise (contrary to a decade of media scare stories that they were drying up due to global warming), and polls show that climate change doesn’t even make a list of Michigan voters’ top-ten concerns.
Yet in an interview with the Detroit News Monday, Senator Debbie Stabenow (D., Mich.) - recently appointed to the Senate Energy Committee - made clear that fighting the climate crisis is her top priority.
“Climate change is very real,” she confessed as she embraced cap and trade’s massive tax increase on Michigan industry - at the same time claiming, against all the evidence, that it would not lead to an increase in manufacturing costs or energy prices.
“Global warming creates volatility. I feel it when I’m flying. The storms are more volatile. We are paying the price in more hurricanes and tornadoes.”
“Global warming creates volatility. I feel it when I’m flying. The storms are more volatile. We are paying the price in more hurricanes and tornadoes.”
***Parallel Universe Rejoinder***
Pathological liar politicians create mistrust. I feel it when I watch the news. The lies are more unbelievably blatant. We are paying the price in more debt and joblessness.
Henry Payne’s (Detroit News) parting comment:
“And there are sea monsters in Lake Michigan. I can feel them when I’m boating.”
Really? That’s awesome!
+ 1
“…Pathological liar politicians create mistrust. I feel it when I watch the news. The lies are more unbelievably blatant. We are paying the price in more debt and joblessness”
Wow, I just had a flashback of Colin Powell standing in front of a flip chart at the UN!
Science we don’t need no stinkin Science.
It’s cooler in one region so that must mean global warming is false, nothing to see here.
Yeah, my freezer is <32 durgrees, so heck, ain’t no Glober Warmin’ ! Personally, with all the problems this world is facing, Global Warming should be on a “backburner”. Pun intended.
Tell us about Al Gore’s Generation Investment Management dealings and why trillions of dollars of industry killing taxes and restrictions will make him and his buddies even richer.
His whole schtick is about him getting richer, and the anti-capitalist “green” left driving evil manufacturing out of “their” USA.
The fact that they wrap it all up in a “science of global warming” flag may win them some ideological and political support; but it really is, in the end, just a con game.
Oh how the O-bots cling pathetically to the propaganda they’ve been fed by the MSM. Oh how they deperately want to right the wrongs of life. Oh my, how cruelly they have been exploited, lied to, and disappointed.
Tell us about Al Gore’s Generation Investment Management dealings and why trillions of dollars of industry killing taxes and restrictions will make him and his buddies even richer.
“You seem to know post some facts. I would expect him to invest in green energy if he believes in it and if he believes that eventually the facts will be imposible to ignore. Just as the flat earth society eventually had to admit we live on a round planet. ”
The fact that they wrap it all up in a “science of global warming” flag may win them some ideological and political support; but it really is, in the end, just a con game.
” Wrap it up in science???. No what they say is that global warming is supported by the vast majority of scientists that follow climate change. What Exxon does is wrapping BS up in science, ie they pay scientists many with no background in environmental science, to write articles. Just like Big Tobacco did they try muddy the waters with their activities. The Obats cling to science, a process that more often than not leads to the correct conclusions. Moonbats cling to Rush Limbaugh, Glen Beck ect that pump out pure BS. Stuff like Obama will have death panels that will kill your children. The dopes eat it up, all these grey hairs protest and get angry never aknowledging that they’ve been using Medicare and love it”
Oh gawd. Where to start?
Aw, shucks. Yer right. It’s all a conspiracy. Please read a scientific paper once in a while and stop banging the Anti-Gore drum. It’s a bore.
dam dem dar no ggggood librullls…. dayz ulwayz trowin da trooooth out dare.
We are paying the price in more hurricanes and tornadoes.”
i happened to come across stats for lives lost and property damaged due to storms in the hurricane ‘08 season.. zero and zero. Check it out at Weather Underground.
sure climate change is real.. anyone who went to grammar school before the enviros took them over knows the earth’s climate is always changing, from cold to hot and back to cool.. it’s been happening for hundreds of millions (if not billions) of years. Has something to do with the Sun’s uneven energy output and/or with the Earth’s less than perfect orbit, iirc.
Climate change even predates the automobile, if you can believe that… Amazing but true.
No one who knows anything about climate change is saying that the climate of the Earth has not changed, you donkey.
It’s about the rate of change, which is higher than it’s ever been in human history, and then the (potential) magnitude and direction of that change (if we don’t curb GHG emissions).
And the rate and sign of the change is totally inconsistent with that of solar insolation or “the Sun’s uneven energy output” and or Milankovitch cycles or “Earth’s less than perfect orbit”.
MrBubble
PS: “Climate change even predates the automobile, if you can believe that… Amazing but true.”
Don’t be fatuous, Joey.
hey smart guy.. as one of algore’s army of envirowacko drones, i bet you’ve got a logical, discriminating brain (or can ask someone who does) and can answer this.
Lets assume you’re correct… That “the rate of change…is higher than it’s ever been in human history”.
What’s it prove? In case you’re neither smart nor of a logical bent, I’ll answer it for you. It proves nothing at all.
Climb aboard your flaky supposition and it’s all downhill from there. Science is a piece of cake when you have unending faith and a closed mind.
Donkey!!! lmao. That’s a rich one.
anyone who went to grammar school before the enviros took them over
Boy I missed that one, too. When was that?
just grab a bunch of old textbooks.. work your way backwards.
When you find a Math book that does not use word problems based on how quickly mankind’s selfishness is destroying Mother Earth, or has no end of chapter quizzes about how many precious natural species will be brutally snuffed out due to man’s relentless encroachment into rain forests, stop. Note the year.
Could you save me some time and give me references, since you know?
I’ve got a good library and interlibrary loan available so I can check.
I’m not saying I can’t do research, that’s what I do. I just don’t usually start from “grab a bunch of old textbooks.” I don’t have
“a bunch of old textbooks” at hand, although I can get them.
Please refer me. Thanks.
you kids.. always trying to get someone else to do your homework for you. How will you ever learn anything?
““Climate change is very real,” she confessed as she embraced cap and trade’s massive tax increase ”
She’s right you know! Unfortunately the ‘climate change’ is the view of the American populace that is getting fed up with all politicians who don’t have a clue to what problems are being faced by the electorate in their district. Congressional representatives should be in their districts 3/4 of the year and teleconferencing. When they go to Washington they should be housed in a dorm and just maybe we will get some decent representation!
When they go to Washington they should be housed in a dorm
Putting congresscritters into dorms is just part of my thesis….
Did you ever notice that the two most successful parts of our government are the drafted military, which won WWII, and the drafted jury-trial system, which decides facts in civil and criminal trials? I think we should carry this to the logical conclusion and draft members of Congress.
Imagine getting a letter in the mail. “Greetings. Your friends and neighbors have selected you for a two year term in the US House of Representatives.”
Most people would hate this. They would try to get out of it, and then, failing that, would patriotically do their duty and wait until their term was over. They certainly would be more inclined to take a position for what’s good for the country over a position for what-will-get –me-reelected.
And we could build a great condo complex near capitol hill for them to live in while in Washington. We could literally call it the “Houses of Congress”. They could meet together off-line and get to know one another, and thereby build consensus for legislation.
And now, from this (Fort Worth) Star-Telegram article, here’s our old friend “pent-up demand” helping Ross Perot’s son’s company launch a new housing development.
As we watch the market push PE levels more indicative of a economy growing at 3%-4% there are signs that the people who should know what’s really going on down on main street:
“The 50% rally in the S&P has been fueled by less-than-horrible economic reports and still weak, but better-than-expected corporate earnings.
Thomson Reuters reports that corporate insiders recently pulled $53 from the market for every $1 they put in. Vickers Stock Research also tracks insider activity. They report that insider selling has now reached late 2007 levels – right before the bear began.”
Let’s watch and see if the insiders are right.
I mentioned before that my essentially unchanged portfolio lost ~20% in the DJIA decline from 14K to 7K. And yet, that 20% has been regained with a DJIA of only 9,300.
Not knowing why this happened is a bit unnerving.. So, I’m thinking of moving some out of the market..
I might have moved every dollar in late 2006 had I known the market would fall as far as it did..
otoh, things do appear quite stable and the PTB seem to be intent on propping up whatever needs it.. volatility is low.. the housing/foreclosure situation holds no mystery.
The rest of the economy may happily plod along despite the years of continued housing woes that lie ahead..
Was a good portion in Emerging Market stocks, etfs, or funds?
A good portion.. almost 40%.. is fixed income.. GNMA.. PIMCO total return and others. Probably too much cash.. conservative.. well diversified… might be some bit of emerging markets in international funds.
Not my favorite pastime, but I should investigate what happened, as it happened, over the last couple years.
Interesting. Mine is somewhat like yours in terms of returns, but much different allocations.
I suspect everything pretty much fell at the same time but a few sectors are raging well above normal while others lag.
Perhaps EM/some income/dividend payers are paying in deference to the others…
strange… similar returns.. much different allocations?
A thought just occurred to me. Maybe there’s nothing strange about it, because that 14,XXX Dow was mostly filled with “air”.. and it would have been closer to 9K or 10K had it been a solid investment arena.
In other words, relatively tame portfolios didn’t reflect that market bubble and didn’t get pumped up as high, didn’t fall as far, and recovered more easily and more quickly.
Well, I might redact the “much different” part. But definitely different. About 50% in cash, 10-15% income, the rest in stock funds and stocks of all flavors, including large company and internationals.
My biggest stupid move was letting the financials sit there..C, WM, etc…
hey… i searched for the sources of that article and all i find is gold bug sites and blogs.. Where did you get it?
Was it..
www
howestreet.com/articles/index.php?article_id=10441
by any chance?
gold bugs are so gloomy and negative all the time.. except about gold.
—–
btw.. anyone who wants to find an article’s source(s) can just paste a portion of a “quoted’ line in Google… including some fairly unique phrase or unusual word helps narrow results.
I pasted “Thomson Reuters reports that corporate insiders recently pulled $53 from the market for every $1 they put in. Vickers Stock Research” at random..
…and got back ONE exact hit and a dozen close but altered hits.
O.K., wham…it’s a “Fourth Day” …you see Mr. Bear, the next thing you know, it’s over!
You see in America, this is considered an IEGD… an “Improvised Electronic Guitar Device”… Ha, make Love…not War!
“Les Paul, the guitar virtuoso and inventor who revolutionized music and created rock ‘n’ roll as surely as Elvis Presley and the Beatles by developing the solid-body electric guitar and multitrack recording, died Thursday at age 94.
“… it was his inventive streak that made him universally revered by guitar gods as their original ancestor and earned his induction into the Rock and Roll Hall of Fame as one of the most important forces in popular music.
His invention paved the way for modern rock ‘n’ roll and became the standard instrument for legends like Pete Townshend and Jimmy Page.
He also developed technology that would become hallmarks of rock and pop recordings, from multitrack recording that allowed for layers and layers of “overdubs” to guitar reverb and other sound effects.”
Guitar legend-inventor Les Paul dies at age 94
By NEKESA MUMBI MOODY (AP)
The dude sadly shot himself in the foot. By helping to develop the modern electric guitar, thereby paving the way for the tremendous rise in the popularity of rock and roll, he reduced the interest in jazz, which was his own specialty as a performer.
“…he reduced the interest in jazz”
(Hwy thinks Mr. Bear is statistically challenged if he thinks that Mr. Paul is the cause of the rapidly deterioration of of Jazz music around our spinning planet. ;-))
Not exactly my point; more that a generation’s fixation on rock-and-roll left interest in jazz and classical music in the dust, at least by comparison (not to suggest that interest in jazz or classical subsequently vanished, though…).
Whad’ya know — cash allocated to clunker purchases can’t be spent elsewhere, nor can it be spent on future car purchases! Who’d of thunk it? There is actually a household budget constraint (never mind whether there is a macroeconomic budget constraint — that’s different).
I have another warning for the Obamanomics Genius Trust:
People currently buying homes with Dough-for-Dumps most likely won’t be making another home purchase for the next ten years!!!
Financial Times
Warning over US cash-for-clunkers scheme
By Simone Baribeau in New York and Bernard Simon in Toronto
Published: August 13 2009 18:51 | Last updated: August 13 2009 18:51
The popular US cash-for-clunkers programme may be drawing money from other consumer purchases and could also undermine future car sales, US economists have warned.
Motor vehicle and parts sales, down 8 per cent on the year, jumped 2.4 per cent from June, according to data from the US commerce department on Thursday, but other retail sales fell 0.6 per cent in July.
…
The biggest problem with Ben Bernanke is that he has seamlessly perpetuated the financial disaster creation-and-rescue regime of his predecessor. It is high time for regime change.
Am I the only one scratching my head over how operating “as an arm of the Treasury” meshes with the Fed’s vaunted “central bank independence”?
* WALL STREET JOURNAL
* OPINION: POTOMAC WATCH
* AUGUST 13, 2009, 8:48 P.M. ET
Bernanke in the Cross-Hairs
Benjamin Bernanke’s problems are now Team Obama’s.
…
Mr. Bernanke’s extraordinary moves the past year—bailing out financial institutions, forcing bank takeovers, elbowing into fiscal policy—has turned him into a lightning rod. Politicians frustrated by the handling of the financial crisis have turned sour on giving the central bank even more powers. The White House helped create this Frankenstein, having encouraged Mr. Bernanke to operate as an arm of the Treasury.
…
Head.. i’d like you to meet Brick Wall.
Wall, this is Head.
ok Head.. heh.. that’s cute. .. ok.. OK! that’s enough.. That’s enough! Stop that! Stop!
What are you talking about?
i’m talking about It is high time for regime change.
We just had an election about 8 months ago. The regime did not change and it will not change. There is nothing anyone can do to change things for the better. Just as it’s a wasted effort to ignore, complain about or deny gravity, we can do nothing about the course we’ve set for ourselves, except hunker down and wait it out.
It’s time we all come to terms with that, imo.
Anyway, sticking good people into these current positions of power will only taint those people. Their inevitable failure to improve the situation will make them look stupid and impotent.
Let Obama’s team take the blows.
Save the good people for when we’re recovered. Change the regime then.
By the way, Joey, have you ever visited Dachau? I was there last month, and I have a feeling you would really relish the experience if you haven’t been there.
..In former times Dachau had always been a retreat for Bavarian kings, dukes and nobility, the castle and the surrounding gardens offering a staggering view on the Alps and Munich weather permitting. Dachau became a town famous for its impressionist painters from the second half of the 19th century on…
from Wikitravel .. handy reference if you want some overview before visiting a city or destination.
A retreat for Kings and Dukes and nobility… That’s right up my alley. It’s now on my list.
First principles of Disaster Capitalism:
1) The best time to steal is at the height of a crisis.
2) The best time to grab power is in the near-term aftermath of a crisis.
3) The best way to create opportunities for stealing and power grabs is to plant and cultivate the green shoots of future crises by installing and maintaining a systemically risky policy management regime.
4) The best way to maintain a high level of systemic risk is through
providing “systemically important” firms with free financial disaster insurance, supplemented as necessary by ad hoc bailouts.
* The Wall Street Journal
* OPINION: POTOMAC WATCH
* AUGUST 13, 2009, 8:48 P.M. ET
Bernanke in the Cross-Hairs
Benjamin Bernanke’s problems are now Team Obama’s.
By KIMBERLEY A. STRASSEL
What to do when your plans to save the financial system from future disaster are being derailed by the guy who supposedly saved the financial system from current disaster? Someone hide Ben Bernanke.
The Obama administration might be wishing it had a secure location for the Federal Reserve chief. The Treasury Department’s proposal to overhaul the financial regulatory system is in trouble. Congress left town after bitter hearings, rancorous accusations and dire warnings about the proposal’s future. And that was just from Democrats.
:-) 
At the center of the fight is Mr. Bernanke, or more precisely the administration’s central idea: to invest his Federal Reserve with new “ultimate authority” to oversee the nation’s banks, hedge funds and insurers. In relatively normal times, such a serious proposal might merit a serious debate. But these are not normal times.
…
Here’s a nice little piece of news
I’ve seen some mention that the drop in unemployment isdue to people exhausting their benefits. Well here is one that quantifies it.
The nonprofit National Employment Law Project has calculated that 540,000 people will exhaust their emergency benefits without finding work by the end of September. And by the end of the year, it predicts 1.5 million will run out.
Quantitative easing has been around for a long, long time. (I am sure some of you remember we had a long-time poster here with the handle John Law.)
Finance and Economics
Buttonwood
Law of easy money
Aug 13th 2009
From The Economist print edition
A 300-year-old example of quantitative easing
Illustration by S. Kambayashi
“IF FIVE hundred millions of paper had been of such advantage, five hundred millions additional would be of still greater advantage.” So Charles Mackay, author of Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds, described the “quantitative easing” tactics of the French regent and his economic adviser, John Law, at the time of the Mississippi bubble in the early 18th century. The Mississippi scheme was a precursor of modern attempts to reflate the economy with unorthodox monetary policies. It is hard not to be struck by parallels with recent events.
Law was a brilliant mathematician who used his understanding of probability to help his gambling habit. Escaping from his native Scotland after killing a rival in a duel, he made friends with the Duke of Orleans, the regent of the young king Louis XV.
The finances of the French government were in a terrible mess. Louis XIV had spent much of his long reign fighting expensive wars. Tax collection was in the hands of various agents, who were more concerned with enriching themselves than the state. Not only was the monarchy struggling to pay the interest on its debt, there was also a credit crunch in the form of a shortage of the gold and silver coins needed to fund economic activity.
Law’s insight was that economic activity could be boosted by the use of paper money that was not backed by gold and silver. He was well ahead of his time.
…
Mr. Bear, to quote someone your familiar with: “All’s well that ends well!”
“Law was a brilliant mathematician who used his understanding of probability to help his gambling habit.”
He had it all… brilliance, laws of probability, friends with the Duke of Orleans, good looks, insights into global economic activity…he was well ahead of his time…he also got something Mr. MadeOff will never get…a pardon.
“Law initially moved to Brussels in impoverished circumstances. He spent the next few years gambling in Rome, Copenhagen and Venice but never regained his former prosperity. Law realized he would never return to France when Orleans died suddenly in 1723 and was granted permission to return to London having received a pardon in 1719. He lived in London for four years and then moved to Venice where he contracted pneumonia and died a poor man in 1729.”
Bubble blowers beware!!!
Finance and Economics
Buttonwood
Law of easy money
Aug 13th 2009
From The Economist print edition
A 300-year-old example of quantitative easing
…
When the scheme faltered Law resorted to a number of rescue packages, many of which have their echoes 300 years later. One was for the bank to guarantee to buy shares in the Mississippi company at a set price (think of the various government asset-purchase schemes today). Then the company took over the bank (a rescue along the lines of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac). Finally there were restrictions on the amount of gold and silver that could be owned (something America tried in the 1930s).
All these rules failed and the scheme collapsed. Law was exiled and died in poverty. The French state’s finances stayed weak, helping trigger the 1789 revolution. The idea of a “fiat” currency was perceived to be the essence of recklessness for another two centuries and the link between money and gold was not fully abandoned until the 1970s, when the Bretton Woods system expired.
Of course, the parallels with today are not exact. Law’s system took just four years to collapse; today’s fiat money regime has been running for nearly 40 years. The growth in money supply has been less excessive this time. Technological change and the entry of China into the world economy have generated growth rates beyond the dreams of 18th-century man. But one lesson from Law’s sorry tale endures: attempts to maintain asset prices above their fundamental value are eventually doomed to failure.
I know this is old news, June 21,09 but, probably couldn’t happen to a “nicer Uber wealthy” person/crowd.
http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2009/06/20/BUQG186Q0K.DTL
Luxury Resort owners just might lose their ill gotten gains.
Is it me, or does a larger number of posts on HBB correlate well with a peak of general economic confidence among “the others”?
My personal hunch is that the number of daily posts roughly scales with the gap between the content of MSM economic propaganda and data-based ground truthing served up by the regulars here. Naturally one finds a huge swell of posts on a week when freshly-rekindled gloom in unemployment, home price decline, foreclosure and bankruptcy statistical releases provides a dramatic foil to the Fed’s “Happy Days are Here Again” economic recovery message.
Another withered green shoot:
Personal Bankruptcy Surges 34 Percent
Loss of Jobs, Home Equity Drives Filings
By Nancy Trejos
Washington Post Staff Writer
Friday, August 14, 2009
Personal bankruptcy filings reached 1.25 million in the year ending June 30, up 34 percent from the year before, as Americans continued to grapple with debt, unemployment and devalued homes, according to figures released Thursday by the Administrative Office of the U.S. Courts.
Despite recent signs that the recession might be easing, the bankruptcy filings show that relief is still eluding many households. Several bankruptcy experts said that they expect the number of filings — including Chapter 7, which wipes out some debt, and Chapter 13, which reorganizes it — to reach a high not seen since 2005, when a new law making it more difficult to file set off a rush of personal bankruptcies. Indeed, 126,434 consumers filed for bankruptcy protection in July, the highest monthly total since the new law was implemented, according to the American Bankruptcy Institute. “This will be the biggest year since 2005,” said Samuel J. Gerdano, the institute’s executive director.
What’s driving so many people to bankruptcy is the loss of jobs and home equity, experts said. Many Americans once had the luxury of refinancing their homes to pay off their debts. Now that home values have declined and jobs have become scarce, consumers are finding themselves with no choice but to face up to their creditors. And in many cases, those creditors are not making it easy. Credit card companies, for instance, have been raising interest rates and minimum monthly payments on many of their customers in anticipation of a new law that will restrict such practices.
“Most people, they’ve already tapped out their available equity or are literally underwater or upside down on a mortgage they can’t afford and can’t sustain,” Gerdano said. “And if you layer on top of that high unemployment or underemployment, that creates a vulnerability in the household finances that makes people particularly susceptible to any unexpected life event.”
…
The ticket sale racket ain’t what it used to be…
Ticketmaster in a Slide
By THE ASSOCIATED PRESS
Published: August 13, 2009
WEST HOLLYWOOD, Calif. (AP) — Ticketmaster Entertainment said Thursday that its second-quarter net income fell 70 percent as ticket sales declined and the company booked expenses over its pending merger with concert promoter Live Nation.
Net income fell to $7 million, or 12 cents a share, from $23 million, or 41 cents a share a year earlier.
Revenue fell 7 percent to $355 million from $382 million.
Ticket sales, which accounted for just over half of the company’s revenue, fell 18 percent to $312 million.
The remainder of the revenue, or $43 million, came from the artist management company Front Line Management. Ticketmaster acquired a controlling interest in Front Line in October 2008.
…
I had thought it was different in Colorado…
Colo. Foreclosure Filings Hit Record High in 2Q
By THE ASSOCIATED PRESS
Published: August 13, 2009
Filed at 2:17 p.m. ET
DENVER (AP) — More Colorado homeowners are struggling to hold onto their homes as housing foreclosure filings set a record in the second quarter, but state officials are hopeful the worst is over.
The Colorado Division of Housing reported Thursday that 12,135 homes entered the initial proceedings of bank repossession or auction in the April-June period. Nearly 5,000 foreclosures were completed, meaning the homes were returned to the bank or sold at auction.
The foreclosure rise was sharpest in Mesa County. There, second-quarter foreclosure filings rose 144 percent from the same period in 2008, from 108 to 264, while completed foreclosures more than tripled, from 18 to 58.
State housing officials attributed the rise to the troubles of the energy industry, a major Mesa County employer.
”This is likely due to a recent softening in the housing market in the Grand Junction area in response to diminished oil and gas development in the region. However, Mesa County’s overall foreclosure rate remains very low,” the report said.
…
When did American taxpayers ever place these bets?
So far as I am aware, it has been national-level politicians, economic policy makers and central bankers, acting to protect the interests of Megabank, Inc and the Super-rich, who made the heads-Wall Street-wins, tails-Main Street-loses wagers against the popular will of the American electorate.
I would appreciate it if anyone who is aware of a poll which looks at this would post a reference.
Finance and Economics
AIG, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac
The toxic trio
Aug 13th 2009
From The Economist print edition
American taxpayers are ploughing billions in. Will they get their money back?
Illustration by S. Kambayashi
FORGET the banks and the carmakers. The biggest bets that American taxpayers have made are on three less famous firms: American International Group (AIG), an insurer, and Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, two mortgage-finance agencies. The state now owns about $170 billion of shares in banks. It has so far invested over $160 billion of equity in the toxic trio, and this number is likely to rise towards $300 billion. Include other kinds of help, such as loans, and the total pumped into the three firms could eventually reach $800 billion (see table), or 6% of GDP. “I had no idea what I was in for,” admitted Edward Liddy this month as he stepped down after a gruelling year running AIG. Americans must feel the same way.
The case that was made to taxpayers last year for bailing out the three is intact. Through its derivatives activities and giant insurance business, AIG was so entangled in the financial system that it could have brought it down. Fannie and Freddie, which own, guarantee and help securitise about half of American mortgages, were judged as vital to a healthy housing market. Banks and foreign governments held buckets of their paper, too, in the belief it had implicit state backing. Defaults would have badly hurt relations with China, the largest foreign-government creditor.
What has changed is the size of the bill. AIG’s bail-out has been revised upward four times as its losses have mounted. “They tried to put on a band aid and then realised they needed a tourniquet,” says Rob Haines of CreditSights, a rating firm. When the government first began to help the two mortgage agencies in July 2008, it said capital injections were “not something we expect”. That looks like a bad joke now. The question is no longer whether the trio will receive vast sums, but whether taxpayers will get any money back.
…
618th post. Is everyone on vacation today and bored on a Summer day, or is it something more sinister like permanently unemployed in the post bubble on the road to Thunderdome?
What’s the record number of posts in a day? Is anyone keeping score?
At the point I opened this thread it was at 644. I’ve watched the totals a bit for about 4 years. Any time you break 500 it’s a big day. As far as I can recall this is the biggest day ever. I blame it on Oly staying away for so long and creating pent-up demand.
I have been lurking here for several years, and now I am desperate for the wisdom of the HBB illuminati.
I caved in to my girlfriend last month and agreed to move in with her. We have found a nearly perfect place in San Francisco. It is in the inner Sunset. Ocean views, 1 1/2 blocks to the N-Judah. Two extra bedrooms, parking for two cars (that’s huge in SF), a back yard, and the dog is welcome. The kitchen and bathrooms have been remodeled. We could live on the main floor, and the ground floor will be designated as my man cave. It’s a great place, and the rent is affordable. It seems too good to be true.
I couldn’t help noticing the 6′ X 8′ “for sale” sign in front of the place when we toured it. When I mentioned this to the owner, he swore he’s taking the house off the market until housing prices rebound (don’t get me started).
Redfin reveals that the house was purchased in 2000 for $589K, and was listed in April, 2009 for $999K. Price was reduced to $979K in June. And although the owner (who happens to be a REALTOR®) claims he’s taking it off the market, it is listed as active on MLS.
Might the owner have a second mortgage and be under water? Is there any way to determine this? Might he be looking for some suckers to pay rent while he fails to pay the bank?
The owner obviously is interested in selling, and I suspect that if a buyer emerged we’d be out on our rears. I hate moving. The deal smells like fish (several days old) to me.
Any thoughts?
Thank you.
Eric
Probably you need to go down to the SF city/county recorder’s office. Any liens on property have to be recorded to have any legal effect.
You may also try http://www.propertyshark.com
Thank you!
Any high dollar investor in F&F knew that the agency was private and
not really backed by the Government ,IMHO . The fact that foreign and domestic investors would of been mad at massive losses from those Investments in F&F stock is more of what the situation would of been . Likewise ,the fact that AIG could not pay off on their Insurance bets ,would of resulted in a major loss for Investment Firms like Goldmans and Lenders as well .AIG would of went belly up and the poor Investment Firms and Banks would of had to wait in line to get their share in BK proceedings .
The government gave AIG the money to make payments on what was owed
and every one is made whole except for the taxpayer who made the
loan to AIG ,which will never be paid back . So the bag-holder becomes
the taxpayer ,instead of parties dealing with AIG. It would be the same as a capital injection to Banks and Investment firms .
But,the operative question is why did a Insurance Company insure
something it didn’t have the reserves to pay off on ,and why did Banks and Investment firms give insurance premiums to a Insurance Company that couldn’t pay off on them ?
About 60,000 Refinance Mortgages Under U.S. Government Program
By Renae Merle
Washington Post Staff Writer
Thursday, August 13, 2009; 4:08 PM
A government program that allows borrowers with little or no equity in their home to refinance has helped about 60,000 homeowners so far, according to government data released Thursday.
The refinancing program is part of the Obama administration’s massive housing program, known as Making Home Affordable, which has a goal of helping 5 million borrowers over three years. It is aimed at borrowers who could not qualify for traditional refinancing because they had less than 20 percent equity in their home, something that has been exacerbated by plummeting housing prices throughout most of the country. The report comes as new data show that about one-third of borrowers owe more than their home is worth, putting them at a higher risk of falling into foreclosure.
Since the program was initiated in April, 60,484 borrowers have been able to refinance. About half of the deals, 30,192, were completed in July, according to the government data.
“We are seeing significant results” from the programs, James B. Lockhart III, director of the Federal Housing Finance Agency, said in a statement. But “much more work needs to be done.”
…