Bits Bucket For September 3, 2009
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The Housing Bubble
Examining the home price boom and its effect on owners, lenders, regulators, realtors and the economy as a whole.
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Debt affecting people’s lives negatively, according to the WSJ.
Ex-college students are forced to defer parenting, homeownership. And the biological clock runs on the former.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970204731804574388682129316614.html
Ex-homeowners forced to become negative carry landlords because they are under water.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970204731804574388683272200844.html
Debt: the new slavery. People are selling their future lives to get by (or live large) today.
Debt is slavery. Nothing new.
Debt is slavery. Nothing new.
Freedom is slavery.
Sheesh, kids.
Arbeit macht frei.
Dunkel ist das Leben, ist der Tod!
“Ex-college students are forced to defer parenting, homeownership. And the biological clock runs on the former.”
No problemo! Immigrants, illegal and otherwise, will take up the slack.
“I don’t know if we can take it for granted that a 22-year-old knows what it means to borrow $100,000,”
http://dealbook.blogs.nytimes.com/2009/09/02/another-view-lock-the-law-school-doors/?ref=business
Yup but what if the staring salary in your small home town is $35K….then what?
—————————————————————–
“They look at the $100,000 in loans, and then they look at the $160,000 salary. And they think, ‘Well, that’s not so bad.’”
Thats about what the public defenders in Texas start at(and I don’t think too many DAs make over $150k).
When they raised the salary at law firms from $80,000 to $160,000 they increased the billable hour requirement from 1200 per year to 2200. IN other words, to be employed you had to agree to working two $80,000 jobs. The next step down, in terms of salaried jobs, was at best $40,000.
It is like the lottery. You can’t win if you don’t play, but the only way to avoid losing is to know better than to play the game in the first place.
I don’t think law firms ever had billable requirements as low as 1200. Even in the old days they were around 1600-1650.
Patent prosecution firms were down around 1400 hours 20 years ago. But they kept creeping up to and over the 2000 hours benchmark. Really tough to write patent apps for than many hours consistently. It’s not like litigator associates who may be tasked to paw through boxes of documents looking for the key one.
Law is an odd profession. It’s hard to get a gig where you aren’t asked to work yourself to death.
Yep. Dennis Yep. Yep, ad infinitum.
I actually had one of those jobs when the starting salary was $80K. Actually, they gave all associates an extra $3000 for all our hardwork in getting the average partner draw well above a million, so it was sort of $83K, but the offer was for $80K. First years didn’t get regular bonuses.
My firm didn’t have stated minimum billable hours, but that was because most that did had it set at 2000 (maybe 1800 for the relaxed places) and that would have been less than most of us worked. 2400 was about right - a little less in my department. And to put in 50 billable a week you had to be there at least 70. I took off maybe one day a week and getting home before 11 was a treat.
No way to live a real life, but I paid off the $70K of student loans in under 3 years and they were mostly at over 8% interest rates. I think a few were as high as 11.5%. Also, I had a studio one subway stop from the office for $725 a month and electricity, heat and hot water were included.
polly, what type of law do you do? It sounds like litigation defense.
Doesn’t quite work like that anymore. First of all, while nominal salary doubled, the take home pay is only up by 67% due the the progressive tax structure; second, average studio in Manhattan now rents at over $2k; and third, student loan more than doubled what they were in the 90s. Cost of attending even a mediocre law school like Fordham will cost you close to $70,000 a year. (NOPE, not a mistake. Estimate from the school itself: http://law.fordham.edu/admissions/458.htm)
ATE-UP
I was in the tax department at GS’s favorite NYC law firm. We did transactional work - IPO’s, bond offerings of all flavors including foreign sovereign debt, M&A, RICs, REITs, etc. We sometimes worked slightly fewer hours on the excuse that our work required more thinking and less “change all the April 2nds, to May 2nds” than the other guys. The litigators did not get to use such excuses.
What I do now has pretty much nothing to do with that part of my life.
NJRenter,
Yeah, I sort of figured that the three year thing would be harder if not impossible at this point which is why I included the other stats like my totally cheap rent. I understand the tax comment, but I think I paid SS on 100% of my salary or close to it, to start, which you wouldn’t on $160K. You have to take that into account too when looking at the amount that you get to keep after taxes.
I also had paid off my undergraduate loans and had $5K in the banks when I started and had two very lucrative big firm summer jobs. That helped keep a lid on the loans a little.
$70K a year? So people are graduating with $200K or more just from law school and as much as $250K from law school and undergraduated combined? That is nasty.
polly: That’s why I knew you were smarter than me!
I did/do med mal, PI, and Comp. Ain’t messin’ with you intelligent lawyers! 
Thanks polly.
ATE:
When i was doing some paralegal work, I couldn’t stand the transactional stuff…way too boring I would ask to go to court and file papers or even go to the post office to get stamps and fill the postage meter…
But med-mal, car accidents, PI…I’d love it…gimme da blood and guts pictures and I’m there!
dj:I got your thoughts re Roger Maris. I agree with your point re dimensions. You are 100% right.
But still, I think I am right too, at least compared to Bonds, Sosa, Marky Marky, etc. Bring back the booze, hot dogs, and The Babe!!!!
P.S. Wood bats too.
Law is an odd profession. It’s hard to get a gig where you aren’t asked to work yourself to death.
This is one more example of corporate distortion of the labor market. In any rational world, you’d have the option of working half the hours for half the pay. Not so with corporate clients.
ATE-UP,
Smart has absolutely nothing to do with the work. Sometimes I had to use my brain in a serious way, sometimes I didn’t. You can’t get the gig unless you have had a pretty smooth transition through the educational system, but that is not an indication of your raw brain power. It is largely based on family background and how much you ever rebelled against what was expected.
You couldn’t do what I did then, but I have never been able to do what you do now. Go to court? Never been there except as part of the jury pool. Someone has to teach you how to handle it, what to expect, how to see the opportunities and avoid the pitfalls. The closest I ever got was counseling some aides patients at New York Hospital about end of life stuff - health care proxies, living wills, regular wills, letters requesting particular guardians to be appointed for their kids, etc. and they had to train us to do that. Oh, and I wrote an appelate brief once or finished what someone else had started, but we were still at the administrative remedies level, not a real court.
Oh, NJRenter, I was in Brooklyn, not Manhattan.
and polly, that is why is I think you are smart! Circuitous reasoning, I guess. You are a great lady!
Law is one of the only professions that allow you to chose who you for. You can work for a firm OR you can work for your clients. Working for a firm always means that clients are second to the firms needs. Working solo, for your clients, allows one the freedom and responsibility to chose who to help and who to send on to the firms…
I love the practice of law. I like helping people and getting good results for my clients. Very seldom do I meet lawyers who work in firms who like what they do and who they work for.
Why go to school for so long just to toil away, 10 hours a day for 240 days a year?
Beacuse their Mommie or Daddie wanted them to be a successful lawYUH….
They are the wussie types …right? Probably will never willingly go to court and face a judge.
————————————-
Why go to school for so long just to toil away, 10 hours a day for 240 days a year?
The Numbers ands Mathematics Don’t Lie, Put People Do -
All Ponzi Schemes mathematically will collapse; we are only arguing over “when.”
So as your kid goes off to “higher education” this fall make sure you consider that by allowing this charade to continue in signing that “federal financial aid” form (FAFSA) you are in fact indoctrinating your young adult in the meme of Ponzi Finance, as well as supporting your “higher education” institution in practicing a mathematically and ethically bankrupt form of it.
When you apply for that $8,000 “tax credit” to buy a new house or the $3,500 “cash for clunkers” stimulus you are likewise engaged in the promulgation of Ponzi Finance in the desperate attempt to find just one more sucker in a long (nearly 40-year long!) line of suckers that has pumped our economy not through organic growth but through an out-and-out pyramid scheme layering debt upon debt.
Realize this folks: If I or anyone in private business ran a Ponzi Scheme like this we would do 20 years of hard time. The government, on the other hand, has been and is running literally thousands of these schemes all predicated on Ponzi Finance, all tired back to The Fed and banking non-regulation, and all of which would be FELONIES if practiced by purely-private citizens or enterprises.
Folks, we are at the end of this rope. Students are literally coming out of college with more debt than they can ever reasonably hope to amortize over their working lives, making their education a negative net equity position - that is, a guaranteed losing investment. This is out-and-out fraud committed upon our young adults by the millions each and every year, and you’re a part of it.
CFC and “Homebuyer Credits” are the same thing - the auto dealers loved it, of course, as supply tightened and they simply screwed you with a higher price. But in fact you got screwed three times - you almost certainly overpaid for the car outright, you indisputably overpaid for the car if you financed it (when one considers the interest paid over the life of the loan) in addition and you got rid of your paid-in-full and cheap-to-operate vehicle and saddled yourself with more debt - yet another building block in the Ponzi Finance wall.
The accumulation of pain that we continue to pile up by doing this cannot be avoided through even more leverage - even more credit. It cannot, in fact, be avoided at all. Each and every machination intended to delay the recognition of the damage that must come simply accumulates more and more harm that our economy must and will recognize.
(From K. Denninger)
Outstanding post blue. Scared to death, I am.
I’m sorry but I don’t buy this. Tuition for in-state residents at a public school is around $10,000 a year. A part time job, even at minimum wage can cover 1/2 of that. A full time summer job can cover the rest. And even if you have to borrow the whole thing since you can’t work for whatever reason, that’s $40,000 amortized over 30 years with interest rates as low as 2% these days.
It’s not the end of the world.
Tuition for in-state residents at a public school is around $10,000 a year.
What about books, room & board, and opportunity cost of lost wages?
“Before doing that, homeowners should consider the financial realties. Generally, utilities, maintenance and repairs run higher with tenants than when the owner occupies the house. Collecting enough rent to cover the note on a home purchased at the height of the housing boom may be impossible.
Rental income is taxable”
The “unknown” expense is the wear and tear after the tenants leave. Yeah, maybe you can keep the deposit but you may find that the house you own is trashed.
I am a clean renter but you know what, sometimes I accidentally dent the wall moving furniture, things break around the house becuase it’s old and needs replacing. All this stuff adds up when you have to “refurbish it”.
I can see this playing out right across the street from me.
Daddy bought the house for Princess to live in while she attended the University of Arizona. Princess rented rooms to other kids, and, boy, have they made a mess of the house and yard.
I surmise that the plan was to buy this place, then sell it after Princess graduated. She’s out in the working world now — left Tucson earlier this summer.
Nowadays, it’s obvious that the rest of the family doesn’t have the money to give this in-VEST-ment the repairs it needs so that it can go on the resale market. They do piecemeal projects now and then, but, overall, the place still looks like a dump.
Those people chose to go the accidental landlord route, they made a decision and now they live with it. We all make decisions everyday, some good, some bad, but no one has to write a story about them. Victims…..pfffffffffffft.
Look who I found. Still scamming people. I cant believe this guy has a following. http://www.facebook.com/home.php?ref=home#/CaseySerin?ref=nf
not a member of facebook.how is he screwing people now?
He was spamming me with linkedin invites for a while.
AAAARG. Serin Gas!
They call him an “Unemployed Grifter” on Wikipedia, LOL!
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Casey_Serin
Fed Tries to Prepare Markets for End of Securities Purchases.
Sept. 3 (Bloomberg) — The Federal Reserve is trying to prepare investors for an end to its housing-debt purchases, while keeping interest rates near zero, reflecting an economy pulling out of a recession with little momentum.
Federal Open Market Committee members discussed extending the end date of the agency and mortgage-backed bond programs, minutes of the group’s Aug. 11-12 meeting showed yesterday. The move would be aimed at avoiding disruptions in housing credit at a time when recovery prospects are clouded by rising unemployment and slowing wage gains, analysts said.
While the economy is projected to expand this quarter, central bankers had “particular” concern about the job market, signaling that the FOMC may need to see a peak in the unemployment rate before it begins withdrawing monetary stimulus. Some policy makers saw dangers of “substantial” declines in the inflation rate, yesterday’s report showed.
“They need to see labor markets improve and inflation stabilize, and not fall, before they even have a serious discussion about increasing interest rates,” said Michael Feroli, an economist at JPMorgan Chase & Co. in New York and former member of the Fed’s research staff.
A government report tomorrow is projected to show the unemployment rate rose to 9.5 percent in August from 9.4 percent in July, threatening to curtail consumer spending. Other areas of the economy have indicated the deepest recession since the 1930s has ended: manufacturing grew for the first time in 19 months in August, and home sales and prices have risen.
Chairman Ben S. Bernanke and his fellow FOMC members next meet Sept. 22-23 in Washington.
“They see positive economic growth, no job growth, a very slow decline in unemployment, and a huge vulnerability to anything that could shock confidence,” said Christopher Low, chief economist at FTN Financial in New York. “I would be really surprised if they tightened at all next year.”
I expect lots of talk on this and little action for a while. Talking then doing nothing is one way to exert the exact opposite reaction in your listeners from what would have happened had you taken action. If I pretend that I am serving a ball to my opponent’s backhand, but successfully get it to his forehand instead, I am likely to ace him. Similarly, if the Fed keeps hinting of their intention to raise interest rates, then fools the markets by doing nothing, they get something like the psychological stimulus of an interest rate cut, even though rates remain stuck at zero.
Expectation management.
Good point Prof. B.
PB - loved your comment last night:
I don’t expect to see the Fed stop sitting on interest rates until inflation is safely out of control…
LOL
I guess it would be out of bounds for Congressional auditors to ask them whether this is, indeed, the plan, as that could be construed as interfering with Fed independence to conduct monetary policy as they see fit to do so.
…Though the Federal Reserve policy harms the average American, it benefits those in a position to take advantage of the cycles in monetary policy. The main beneficiaries are those who receive access to artificially inflated money and/or credit before the inflationary effects of the policy impact the entire economy. Federal Reserve policies also benefit big spending politicians who use the inflated currency created by the Fed to hide the true costs of the welfare-warfare state. It is time for Congress to put the interests of the American people ahead of the special interests and their own appetite for big government.
Abolishing the Federal Reserve will allow Congress to reassert its constitutional authority over monetary policy. The United States Constitution grants to Congress the authority to coin money and regulate the value of the currency. The Constitution does not give Congress the authority to delegate control over monetary policy to a central bank. Furthermore, the Constitution certainly does not empower the federal government to erode the American standard of living via an inflationary monetary policy….
(From Ron Paul)
How would deflationary policy not also erode American standard of living? Ask anyone who has had their salary cut, is unemployed or will be losing their pension about their standard of living.
The biggest threat facing each of us and the economy is not inflation. It is deflation, and the ensuing unrestrained collapse of the credit markets.
Interesting perspective Pbear…
I expect that if the Fed demands any kind of repayment on the “short term” loans on those garbage assets, we will see a solvency crisis appear very quickly.
Guess I agree that would nip inflation.
The Fed’s not in the habit of screwing over its member banks.
“Other areas of the economy have indicated the deepest recession since the 1930s has ended: manufacturing grew for the first time in 19 months in August”
I only see the opposite here on the ground. Equipment manufacturers that I speak with are running out backlog. Sober reality is setting in that there are no horses left on the field. This spring there was way more optomism that a few months of breath holding would carry them through. Having been away for two months makes the shift way obvious.
I suspect that the branch trimming phase is about over with most of these manufacturers. It feels like a new chapter in the Book of Pain is going to open this fall.
Maybe Cash-4-Clunkers will come back soon, once it is recognized just how much taking it away ‘hurt’ the auto manufacturers?
How much of the spike in car sales was just shifted from future months, kind of like housing bubble lured unqualified first time buyers in who WOULD have been able to put down a significant downpayment in a few years if they had waited.
Jim A,
Right, a little “pulling your book forward” never hurt anybody? ( Oh wait, yep, yep it did )
“pulling your book forward”
Why does it matter, so long as you can indefinitely continue to cook the books to hide the ugly underlying reality?
PB,
Oh agreed, and the REIC made it work w/ intensity for at least a decade! LOL.
But my point is that, in the end, there was more greed on the part of the NAR than even Wall Street could service. ( And that’s saying a LOT! )
When you’re on your 3rd or 4th layer of derivatives and you -still- can’t extinguish the fire underneath your feet, what are supposed to do? Obviously asking the MBA/NAR to encourage down payments was out of the question.
So… More New Loan Products Please!
Until the dealers actually get their money from the first “tranche,” they probably wouldn’t even participate. Folks are yelling a blue streak about having fronted the government the $3500 and not seeing it yet despite spending substantial time doing the paperwork….
A smaller scale example of the same thing:
While visiting my aunt, my “take care of family via doing home repairs” instinct was in overdrive. You see, I like to express love for my family members by fixing things.
Having been thwarted in my attempt to fix the fill valve leak in one of her toilets*, I decided to turn my attention to converting her lighting from energy-gobbling incandescents to CFL. Which meant that I had to go to the hardware store to buy lightbulbs.
While there, I learned that there was a utility company credit for buying them. And the True Value told me that they had to front out the money, for which the utility company would eventually reimburse them.
—————
*Despite the fact that the toilet would periodically flush itself, my aunt wasn’t bothered by the waste of water. So, when it came to fixing the fill valve, I had to back off. It was her house, after all.
Please adopt me, Slim?
Speaking to some banks about mortgages over the last week, they all told me that they would sell my mortgage to the govt if we used them as a lender.
Related (IMHO), they really didn’t seem too concerned as to whether we were putting down, 5% or 25%. I think they just want to check off some boxes and sell the sucker to the feds.
Only 90 more shopping days ’til the 8K home credit disapears! And then gets replaced, maybe by something better.
Only 90 more shopping days ’til the 8K home credit disapears! And then gets replaced, maybe by something better.
And I can’t help but think that there are more than a few homebuyers who are biding their time, waiting for a better tax credit to come along.
I’m guessing that’s a small number, because it assumes a level of intelligence and willingness to delay gratification not commonly seen in the general population.
It’s us, right?
More Bailouts will be needed!
Cash 4 Clunkers 2
Cash 4 Fridges
Cash 4 Dumps
Cash for Congresscritters
We must get inflation back out of control while keeping employment down and savers punished!
Students Borrow More Than Ever for College
Heavy Debt Loads Mean Many Young People Can’t Live Life They Expected. WSJ 9-3-09
Students are borrowing dramatically more to pay for college, accelerating a trend that has wide-ranging implications for a generation of young people.
New numbers from the U.S. Education Department show that federal student-loan disbursements—the total amount borrowed by students and received by schools—in the 2008-09 academic year grew about 25% over the previous year, to $75.1 billion. The amount of money students borrow has long been on the rise. But last year far surpassed past increases, which ranged from as low as 1.7% in the 1998-99 school year to almost 17% in 1994-95, according to figures used in President Barack Obama’s proposed 2010 budget.
The sharp growth is “definitely above expectations,” says Robert Shireman, deputy undersecretary of the Education Department. “But we’re also in an economic situation that nobody predicted.” The eye-opening increase in borrowing is largely due to the dire economic environment, which is causing more people to seek federal loans, he says.
The new numbers highlight how debt has become commonplace in paying for higher education. Today, two-thirds of college students borrow to pay for college, and their average debt load is $23,186 by the time they graduate, according to an analysis of the government’s National Postsecondary Student Aid Study, conducted by financial-aid expert Mark Kantrowitz. Only a dozen years earlier, according to the study, 58% of students borrowed to pay for college, and the average amount borrowed was $13,172.
The ripple effects for today’s heavily indebted young people are becoming palpable. A growing body of research suggests that tough loan payments are affecting major life decisions by recent graduates, forcing them to put off traditional milestones—from buying a first home to even marriage and having children.
That’s OK - a good employment environment awaits, to help them pay off those loans.
There’s going to be a whole new jaded generation.
“Generation J” - maybe I should trademark that.
Isn’t this the type of situation where they all develop a social conscience and join the Peace Corps?
Its very hard to get into the Peace Corps. Plus they want you to have an actual skill.
Plus you work your azz off if you do get in there. It’s not like some sort of hippie feel-good fest.
pack: on that point, even though I don’t think this will “end” good, for any of us, we got lucky. I had a fun carefree childhood, came from a lower-middle class family, and had a “good time” you know? Anxiety and trepidation is the new paradigm, and it is a shame for the kids.
Anxiety and trepidation is the new paradigm, and it is a shame for the kids.
And shameful for those who wrought that paradigm for their children.
There are plenty of kids who’ll manage to avoid the anxiety and trepidation, however. That’s only one possible outcome.
Generation J- aka the ‘grass eaters’- aka sitztinklers
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/asia/japans-generation-xx-1704155.html
Japan’s already on it. Our future looks…interesting.
alph: I saw your comment this morning to Oly Gal, “geoducks are satan”. Loved it!!
(There is nothing like getting Oly Gal riled up!, it just kind of makes your day, ya know).
satan-’ic’- important distinction
(it’s probably not a good idea to drag my late night ruminations into the cold, grey light of dawn–when the kids are reading!)
“bras” What?
Exactly! Let’s focus on some wholesome cross-dressing.
alph: I haven’t read it all yet, but this is Ate-Up. These dudes are out there.
It’s worth a read-through. See, cultural conservatives, what the consequences of your brethren’s economic policies are going to do to our kids? Men, sitting down to pee, wearing bras because it feels good (never heard that from a chick), and *gasp* working part time. We’ve really screwed the beautifully groomed pooch this time.
That story reminded me of the 80s. Punk rock or hair bands w/uber tight spandex. And of course we had the androgynous look: Jackson took it too far but Bowie, Boy George, Adam Ant, Annie Lenox and countless others all had their different takes on it.
Yeah CarrieAnn, but bras??
I thought the same thing, CarrieAnn. And the 80’s androgynous look grew out of the 70’s, America’s own ‘lost decade’. Interesting how an economic downturn seems to make men effeminate, or at least more comfortable showing it. Does an excess of testosterone lead to economic manias? Or does lack of money steal one’s ‘manhood’? Does dandyism coincide with economic downturns? Is Ant music only for Ant people?
Ask Adam Ant.
I live in Japan and I can tell you this article is bullshit. I have not heard of this phenomenon, none of the guys I know, or women, have mentioned anything about ‘grasseaters’. I almost wonder if this reporter was duped.
From the article: “I think the changes among men are mostly healthy and are here to stay,” says Ms Ushikubo. “Men are nicer to the women in their lives and happier with themselves.” What can be bad about that?”
If it’s happening here, it’s well compensated for with Xtreme sports, cojones-inflating 4×4 pickups and steroids. The young dudes seem very ‘roidy these days, uptight and ready to sideswipe you on the road and flip you the bird going by.
(No offense to our own Roidy…)
Montana: I agree. We are a ways from that. Not to brag, but used to race Prof. Motocross. Saw a dude one month ago do a double flip off a ramp. Never been done before. Blew both ankles when he landed flat, but no surgery, just PT.
We aren’t wearing bras yet.
That’s what the up-and-coming generation will be rebelling against. Plus their lack of economic prospects. I predict in a few years, we’ll all be wearing bras. Buy now or be priced out forever.
ATE-UP,
Ouch. I used to street race in the amateur league out here and watched a guy get off his bike at a buck fourty. Sprained his ankle. Got up and limped over to his bike before the corner workers could even get to him.
(I won’t mention racing while leaking cerebral spinal fluid out of my nose. That wasn’t tough, it was just plain stupid.)
sf: The guy was going 140 on the street, bought it, and walked off, right? I don’t get your part re cerebral spinal fluid, but want to know.
If you have time, write back and tell me.
Thanks,
ATE
Ate-Up,
Not on the street, on a race track. Sorry if that wasn’t clear. I don’t recommend doing 140 on streets or freeways and crashing.
The CSF leaking involved a low speed crash on the warm up day when I goosed it to hard out of a hairpin on Sears Point trying to get around my buddy. Back end washed out, hooked back up, tried to high side me into the air, but I hung on and landed back on the bike, but landed too much on the front tire and washed IT out, flinging me to the ground pretty hard. I should have stayed on the gas and lowsided (which is what I did the next time I was in that situation and it hurt a lot less) but I chopped the throttle when the rear broke loose.
Anyway, I fixed the bike up to race the next day, but didn’t bother getting medical assistance. The doctor that eventually saw me called me an idiot.
I know how that wreck happened. Thanks sf.
It is a learning experience, isn’t it sf?
Indeed. I gotta say, though, learning to ride a dirt-bike makes you a MUCH better street bike rider. You learn with every crash, and you crash a lot more on dirtbikes and they jack you up a lot less.
Was that the carousel hairpin at Sears Point - turn 5 IIRC? The outer edge is like a washboard.
Turn 11, the hairpin before the main stands and the drag racing strip.
I never crashed on Carousel and I was thankful for it. That turn spits you across the pavement and down the hill and a pretty decent clip.
I wish I knew where you guys were talking about.
They renamed it infineon raceway (And if you put a www and a dot com around that, you’ll find out all you want about it) but I will always think of it as Sears Point.
It’s a nifty little track north of San Francisco.
We used to live down the street practically in Petaluma - I always wanted to get there but never did while we lived there. I wish we had.
Do they still have regular street car races at Sears Point?
They have all sorts of things. One time when it had rained and we needed to ‘dry the track out’ before getting the bikes on there, I got to take my giant F350 sized truck out on the race course.
I watched a BMW spin out in the snakes. Me? I just drove down the middle and over the berms.
SFB Gal,
How about to CSRG Sept 26, 27th at Sears Point? It’s $20 to get in. Lots of classic cars (Porsche, Ferrari’s, etc.). Walk around the pits.
You can also buy or bid for a ride around the track in your favorite race car. Proceeds go to charity.
NASA events can be fun also and IIRC they are free except for parking.
I got to drive my Austin-Healey ‘59 Bugeye Sprite around Sears Point a few times with the AH club - we got to do laps between “real” vintage races. A lot of fun but of course you can’t push a Bugeye that far. It only has tiny drum brakes all around. Maybe up to 85-90 mph in the straight before braking hard to go into that last hairpin turn.
You’re better off in your Miata Dennis.
Sounds like a hoot, Dennis!
And seriously, taking vehicles never meant to be on a race track on a race track is such a joy.
Yeah, yeah, yeah….
Let’s see you guys try a double flip off the ramp on a jumping pony….
Comment by In Montana
2009-09-03 08:11:28
… (No offense to our own Roidy…)
None taken.
Roidy
Good one, however don’t forget that “Generation x” is for taX, as in taxed generation.
Why bother to qualify the statement?
Heavy Debt Loads Mean Many
YoungPeople Can’t Live Life They Expected.Education inflation is becoming a serious problem. By “inflation,” I mean college degrees are losing value, so you need more degrees to buy the same job.
Our government can’t afford to subsidize more and more years of schooling, and the workers can’t afford the time. They have to attack this from the other end — make jobs available to high school graduates, at least in some trades, and two-year tech school in others.
I just saw a report about a community college that offers a two-year program in wind tubine maintenance. There are more jobs than students. We need a LOT less Aristotle and a LOT more of this.
We’re in agreement here, education really IS a “red queen race,” IMHO. I don’t think that a college degree is much use for the assistant manager at a GAP store, but try getting that job without one.
Part of the reason is - it’s a lot easier to get a degree these days.
There was a big article in January about inflation at Chapel Hill, but it’s not there now. I saved it though - here’s an except.
Study finds grade inflation at Chapel Hill
Eric Ferreri
(Raleigh) News & Observer
Posted: Sunday, Jan. 25, 2009
CHAPEL HILL At UNC-Chapel Hill, students are getting great grades.
And that’s a problem.
A new report on grade inflation reveals that about 82 percent of all undergraduate grades at UNC-CH were A’s or B’s in the fall of 2007, and more A’s were given than any other grade.
Now, some faculty fear top students aren’t getting the recognition they deserve as the line between them and the rest of the class blurs.
“We think it is a problem,” said Donna Gilleskie, an economics professor who analyzed more than 1 million grades since 2000 in writing the report. “It’s a disservice to students. Sure, students would all like to get A’s. But you want to reward students who have mastered the material.”
The new report comes nine years after a similar study found 77 percent of the grades issued to undergraduates were A’s and B’s. That report prompted lengthy faculty discussion but no changes, and the trend has worsened since.
The new report is a draft that can change as Gilleskie adds data and controls to it. But it shows that the average undergraduate grade-point average has increased steadily, from 2.976 in 1995 to 3.2 in 2007.
The inflation appears greatest in some humanities departments, where grading is often more subjective than in the hard sciences or math. But there was a significant spike in medical-related schools as well, the report notes.
I seem to recall the average grade at Harvard being an “A” and all but a few graduate with honors.
Well happy graduates is way to keep the Alumni donations coming in.
I don’t think bell curve grading is fair either, but there has to be a happy medium.
Bell curve grading used to drive me mad when I was in engineering. Some of the profs hewed the line religiously, and so for every A, there had to be an F, plus something like two B’s, two D’s, and three C’s.
The most frustrating bit is that as the lesser students dropped out as the semester went on, keeping out of the C range got harder and harder.
I can say one thing, though: It prepared me well for the corporate rat race.
Passed it on to my oldest child, who is applying to the school. I’m not sure what to make of it.
Compared with other schools, a site (Unigo) that takes comments from current students made UNC students seem the happiest in the whole U.S.A, which is why she is interested. Are they still happy when they get out?
“But it shows that the average undergraduate grade-point average has increased steadily, from 2.976 in 1995 to 3.2 in 2007.”
Those GPAs sure look great on a resume, but…
“Rarely is the questioned asked: Is our children learning?”
“Rarely is the questioned asked: Is our children learning?”
As a University of Florida grad, I believe the phrase is “ain’t our kids larnin’ nothin’.”
“A new report on grade inflation reveals that about 82 percent of all undergraduate grades at UNC-CH were A’s or B’s in the fall of 2007.”
I’m sure all those little darlings deserve their As and Bs because they’re all special and their efforts deserve to be recognized.
I gagged a little bit typing that. Good thing for my keyboard I didn’t say it out loud.
B for not dropping the class, A for actually turning in the research paper.
oxide,
( Elbows over slightly to help beat drum )
After seeing what happened w/ my own 2 daughters I’ve become an advocate of a FIVE year HS program where kids leave w/ an Associates. Sending them off to a Jr./Community/Vo-Tech for their first year only increases ‘their’ burden for things WE were taught anyway.
Even in my guard unit I was surprised most of the kids didn’t even know who Joseph Conrad was? “Uh… old dude, we didn’t get exposed to ‘that stuff’ o.k?”
You know you’d fail on that “Are you smarter than a 5th grader” show. Memorization of facts isn’t always intelligence. I like critical thinkers and people that can apply knowledge, but that doesn’t jive with the multiple choice tests that I used to fail because I thought that homework was an invasion of my time.
VaBeyatch,
Oh and I’m not necessarily challenging that either. I like to surround myself w/ critical thinkers as well, and more times than not, this Blog is a great place to start.
Yet most of us didn’t start OUT by having all the latitude in the world. It’s only after years of suffering under sub-standard leadership do you hone and craft your critical thinking skills. In essence, you’ve seen just about everything that *doesn’t work!
And that’s what pub. ed. has been selling us for years and we’ve been only too eager to eat it up. I mean, you don’t want us to turn out a bunch of robo-trons, DO YOU!?
Definitely not. Some of my friends are huge on the school thing, several are working on their PhDs. I’m just not keen on the idea of jobs being so tied to the degrees so heavily.
“but that doesn’t jive with the multiple choice”
Oh it’s “jive” all right.
Joseph Conrad? Oh, that old DWEM. We don’t study them anymore. You can’t learn much from western literature.
Joseph Conrad? Didn’t he play 3rd base for the Phillies during their heart-of-darkness series?
Next time ask them if they have seen Star Wars.
I LOVED Heart of Darkness.
Even in my guard unit I was surprised most of the kids didn’t even know who Joseph Conrad was? “Uh… old dude, we didn’t get exposed to ‘that stuff’ o.k?”
On the other hand, it’s highly unlikely that you could operate a computer when you graduated from high school.
I essentially agree with you, but knowledge is not a static thing, even though we should all have a baseline from which to work. (And one could reasonably argue that Conrad should be part of that baseline.)
ET-Chicago,
So true, in fact, I really wasn’t exposed to DOS until the late 80’s! Where I will take exception w/ the status-quo is that… ( sadly ) most of us, -aren’t- “exceptional”.
Most of us are.., well, most of us. I think there’s been rather enough “creativity” and many young people aren’t wanting for it? They have more than enough to go around.
What we -can’t- find is HS’ers’ w/ basic math and reasoning skills. I know I mentioned my conversation w/ a recruiter not long ago where he said fewer than 15% of 18-25 y.o can actually pass the ASVAB, PT and legal requirements. So anyone worrying we’re “gearing up to be a “military state” can CTFO.
I was at an event as well and one of the mil folks said that they are basically so limited in who they can recruit because by the time they get to the kids so many of them are already ruined. Either over the top obese, criminal or mental issues or felonies. It was pretty insane to hear.
I mentioned my conversation w/ a recruiter not long ago where he said fewer than 15% of 18-25 y.o can actually pass the ASVAB, PT and legal requirements. So anyone worrying we’re “gearing up to be a “military state” can CTFO.
Whew! That comforts me!
…Oh, wait.
No, it doesn’t.
I graduated from high school in 1971 and knew how to program an HP minicomputer in assembly language. That was saying a lot in those days. IIRC Intel had barely gotten the 4040 microprocessor out by that time.
I just saw a report about a community college that offers a two-year program in wind tubine maintenance. There are more jobs than students. We need a LOT less Aristotle and a LOT more of this.
+1,000!
…so you need more degrees to buy the same job.
+5 insightful
Reminds me of when (in the 80’s) a Massachusetts Education Czar wanted to decree that all schoolteachers must have master’s degrees. WTF. His idea was, they would get better teachers that way. BS. What they would’ve got was a bunch of additional degree factories. Don’t think they went through with it.
Meanwhile, of course, the teachers’ unions resist attempts to test teachers themselves in basic RRR.
At lunch today I read an absolutely hair-raising article about NYC teachers’ union in the latest New Yorker.
If it’s not available online to non-subscribers yet, it will be after a week or so, I believe.
Great post, oxide!!!
The more students can borrow the higher tution & fees will be. It’s really as simple as that. When I went to college I worked for Pizza delivery, waiting tables, UPS, etc.
It wasn’t fun, but it was barely enough to pay $484 tution and rent a room in a boarding house for $235/mo. I graduated in 4.5 years being $0 in debt. Of course I didn’t have health insurance and Ramen noodles where on the menu 2-3 times a week. The rest of the time I survived on leftover pizza and potato salad I organized from the buffet.
Today tuition at the same school (NC State) is $2500 and rent is probably around $500/mo. The only thing that hasn’t changed is the amount of money you can make delivering pizza (about $12/hr) or waiting tables.
Education was supposed to be an investment into the future of this country. Somehow it turned into a cash cow for universities selling short the future of this country. Why invest in the furture when you can make a profit today?
NC State! Howwwlll….
(note my handle - not sure if you knew or not)
GO PACK! I never made the connection to the Wolf Pack.
I still get to see them once in a while when they play U Miami.
Cool.
So - back to your info - were you referring to in-state (resident) tuition being $2500? If so - wow. When I went there in the late 80’s it was in the $400’s. It was outraged when it went above $600 about 1990 or so. That was the in-state subsidized of course though.
I started in ‘88. Later I went back to further my education after I was laid off in 2002. I worked for some .com outfit that went belly up. At that time I paid $2100 a semester while milking unemployment benefits.
“At that time I paid $2100 a semester while milking unemployment benefits”
LOL. How did you get away with that?
At the time they had extended unemployment benefits, kind o’ like today. I went to school full time while applying for jobs I was unqualified for. I am really a C++/PERL/Unix programer, so I applied for Oracle DBA or Java positions. Close enough to get benefits but not to get a job.
“NC State! Howwwlll….
(note my handle - not sure if you knew or not)” - packman
I just assumed you had a big yellow head and took alot of pills.
I just assumed you had a big yellow head and took alot of pills.
OK - you lost me on that one. Call me clueless.
pacman
LOL - gotcha. One forgets one’s roots sometimes.
Mike your exactly right and I lived the same way. Worked all the way through, ate 88 cent Fox pizzas or dry bread a lot of times. Didn’t kill me.
The part about the cash cow was probably going on, but not like today. Education is important, but the machine behind it is just like the gubmint and state.
Of course today none of the kids could do w/o a $300 I-phone and gourmet pizza.
On the other hand, it would not be possible to pay for tuition, books, rent, etc. working some job a college kid can get…unless you’re into exotic dancing or selling drugs.
How many of us who did the starving student routine are doing pretty well now because we carried on a similar lifestyle for a number of years after graduating?
How many of us who did the starving student routine are doing pretty well now because we carried on a similar lifestyle for a number of years after graduating?
:raise hand:
My oldest kids went to the University of Central Florida in Orlando (neither had the grades or gumption for UF). Prices are through the roof. Tuition is paid for by the State pre-paid program which I paid for. Both got state scholarships for fees & books.
However, dorm rooms are $2000/semester, and apparently the school gets a cut of the book prices. UCF just built a new football stadium and built a small “downtown” next to it of bars, eateries and bookstores.
Same here after graduating.
- Thrift stores
- Rent one bedroom apartments
- Used cars (Most expensive in 20 years was $10K)
- Net saver
- avoided debt like the plague
Almost all my friends seem to have more than me. They just have more debt.
What is a university doing building commercial space for food, bars, and retail on campus?
…doing pretty well now because we carried on a similar lifestyle for a number of years after…
Yes indeed! I got out of school with no debt and a lot of relief that I only had to work a full time job, not a full time job AND school as well like I did for so many years. And since I was used to scrimping, it was easy to continue that.
What is a university doing building commercial space for food, bars, and retail on campus?
I know some schools had all that even 25 years ago. Heck, there was a bar in the basement of our dorm! Good thing, too. Even though it was perhaps too much temptation too close to wide-eyed freshmen, it saved many of us kids a DUI because we only had to stumble up the stairs to get home.
NoVa: Everyone enjoys comfort at some time in their life.
While it’s easy to blame the schools or blame the students, the public universities and colleges have also had to do more with less state aid. In Florida, the per-student funding for state higher education programs is $4500 less than it was in 1990, accounting for inflation. (Increases in total funding have come nowhere close to increases in student enrollment)
So the schools have to make it up somewhere, and they usually do it with tuition and fee increases when they can. The alternative, as U of Florida has chosen to do in recent years, is to decrease enrollment when they’re not allowed to increase tuition enough to meet program costs. Their state funding does not depend on a precise head count and lower enrollment lets them spend more per student on the ones they do admit.
Education was supposed to be an investment into the future of this country. Somehow it turned into a cash cow for universities selling short the future of this country. Why invest in the furture when you can make a profit today?
Right on, Mike!
I agree, Mike-in-Miami. Harvard tuition went from $1280 in 1962 to $33700 now. The rise is three times as fast as general inflation. The university’s excuse would be that nowadays hardly anybody pays full freight. They exercise their own version of socialism where, like all other private schools, they decide how many other people besides yourself you (or your parents) are supposed to put through school. Would not send a child of mine to any such place.
Let me make this one point, or two.
If I am to return to school and get mjr loans
to do this, and lose hrs at work = losing $ in this
time frame, then da mit I want A +++s
Or else, someone is going to have to sleep with someone
to get those grades.
$$$$= A grades
A grades = sex?
Either way, just joking, but half serious, cause you have to have good referrals too!
lol
being facetious today.
I was on the same program. My school cost about 7,000 a year and I left with zero debt waiting tables and renting my own apartment. Thanks to all the new “debt help” offered, tuition is now triple that and no one can do it just waiting tables. So who really benefited from all these student loan programs? Clearly not the students.
Nothing better than waking up to the warm fuzzy smell of debt being monetized!
I ain’t too bright. Can somebody tell me what exactly does debt being monetized mean?
Hobo, I ain’t to bright either. I asked the same question. Here it is for you.
Monetization is the process of converting or establishing something into legal tender. It usually refers to the printing of banknotes by central banks, but things such as gold, diamonds and emeralds, and art can also be monetized. Even intrinsically worthless items can be made into money, as long as they are difficult to make or acquire. Monetization may also refer to exchanging securities for currency, selling a possession, charging for something that used to be free or making money on goods or services that were previously unprofitable.
Hope that helps.
Good description.
So with respect to debt, that means simply creating money to pay for it. Best example is the Fed buying $300B in U.S. treasuries. That’s new money out in the world, via debt.
A. US government declares some program to spend money (e.g. the stimulus)
B. US government doesn’t have said money, so it borrows it, by offering treasury notes at auction.
C. Federal Reserve buys a bunch of these notes, using money simply created out of thin air.
D. US government uses this money to pay the contractors who work on stimulus projects.
E. Contractors pay their grocer, their medical bills, their mortgage bills, etc. with this money.
Voila - new money out in the system, created out of nothing, and watering down the value of all the rest of the existing money out there.
Same principle applies to other things besides US treasuries - e.g. Fed purchase of MBS, etc. Even non-Fed entities like just the fractional reserve banking system exercise money creation via debt.
got it….thanks to both of you
‘Monetizing’ is a word we toss around here a lot but, like ‘inflation’, etc, it’s a word with different meanings. I think of it less broadly than packman, in that I don’t consider borrowing to pay for some sort of stimuloss (hee hee) to be really ‘monetizing’ the debt.
I think of monetizing as meaning the gov buying or guaranteeing already loaned out debt that isn’t going to be paid back. If those loans all collapsed it would be massively deflationary, therefore the gov chooses to purchase or otherwise back that debt to ensure that the economy doesn’t drop down to a lower level (deflation). The gov makes all that debt ‘good’, thus ‘monetizing’ or putting real money behind debts that otherwise would poof away, taking a lot of money with them. I’m sure others have different and better definitions, let’s hear some.
“Debasement” of the currency does not always result is simultaneous inflation or hyperinflation. Right now, we are experiencing some deflation during a time of rapid debasement.
Just like floating down the Niagara River doesn’t mean you’ll die going over the falls this minute. It just usually winds up that way after scenic journey.
CURRENCY VALUE CHANGE % CHANGE TIME
EUR-USD 1.4285 0.0021 0.1444% 09:39
GBP-USD 1.6353 0.0080 0.4907% 09:39
USD-CHF 1.0597 -0.0011 -0.1058% 09:39
USD-SEK 7.2199 0.0015 0.0203% 09:39
USD-DKK 5.2110 -0.0074 -0.1429% 09:39
USD-NOK 6.0385 -0.0483 -0.7936% 09:39
USD-CZK 17.9320 -0.1074 -0.5954% 09:38
USD-SKK 21.0920 -0.0254 -0.1201% 09:38
USD-PLN 2.8873 -0.0239 -0.8218% 09:38
USD-HUF 191.8160 -1.5635 -0.8085% 09:39
USD-RUB 31.7090 -0.2309 -0.7228% 09:38
USD-TRY 1.5062 -0.0066 -0.4363% 09:39
USD-ILS 3.7950 -0.0096 -0.2530% 09:37
USD-KES 76.3000 0.6500 0.8592% 09:34
USD-ZAR 7.7363 -0.0662 -0.8484% 09:38
USD-MAD 7.9235 -0.0096 -0.1210% 09:39
Those are exchange rates from Bloomberg dot com. They generally point in the direction of daily move towards a weaker dollar versus other nation’s currencies.
The Torah states that all debts should be erased every 7 years and every 50 years. Is that by walking away, or by paying it down?
It’s called Jubilee - and it’s through forgiveness by the one to whom money is owed.
Hmmm. Will our current crisis end in jubilation? (I wouldn’t bet on it.)
I’m sure Jubilee also acted as a natural drag on lending; it would follow a predicatable cycle.
Imagine that it is one week until Jubilee–would you lend to someone? Or one month before? The whole economy would put the brakes on it. The day after Jubilee, though, it would be Game On—cause you would have 6 more years to get that sucker to pay up, and debtor’s prisons to motivate them!
The original credit boom/bust cycle? Been working ever since! (I guess the original boom/bust cycle was whether or not you killed the mammoth.)
Isn’t the Torah the same as the first 5 books of the Old Testament?
Hard to get a 30-year mortgage under the 7-yr jubilee system!
Housing inventory thoughts:
During the last fairly deep US recession (officially dated by the NBER as lasting from July 1990 - March 2001), I was sitting out the housing market, just as I am currently — the only big difference was then I was in the midwest, now I am in CA. In 1992 I got married, and we did the normal nesting thing newlyweds do — bought our first home together. I recall how astonished I was at the number and variety of homes for sale at the time — there was a sea of used homes available at every price point and description, and there was little problem finding a home that met our family planning constraints at a price we could afford.
Flash forward to 2009: We appear to be in month 21 of a recession that started in January 2008, and the economy is still shedding jobs (see clear graphical evidence on lower-left corner of today’s WSJ, p. 1 print edition if you have one handy). I know there is an unprecedented flood of foreclosures underway in San Diego county — i.e. foreclosures are happening at a rate much higher than in the early 1990s. And yet the inventory of homes for sale on the MLS has steadily shrunk since last year.
Which raises a few questions:
1) Is it just different in San Diego than in the midwest, since everyone wants to live here?
2) Won’t all the homes going back to the banks currently eventually have to show up as end-user supply, either as rentals or owner-occupied housing?
3) When will the elephantine supply currently hiding under the living room rug finally show up where end users can clearly see it (i.e. as a standing inventory of homes which give would-be end users clear choices over price and location)?
And yet the inventory of homes for sale on the MLS has steadily shrunk since last year.
I can explain this. I lived in San Diego in the late ’80’s, early ’90’s. San Diego and the surrounding municipalities,in cooperation with the banks,are doing everything in their power to make sure I never come back and buy a house.
At least, that’s my take on it. Fine. I’m moving to Tucson, first chance I get.
Why would a major city consider it to be in its economic interest to price its potential future labor market out of the housing market?
It’s a conundrum. Look at the other extreme - Detroit. It’s one of the cheapest places in the country to buy a house (if not *the* cheapest), but would you want to buy one there? No - because prices are falling.
Part of the appeal isn’t the prices themselves, but the direction of movement. The appeal factors of “price” vs. “price change” work against each other. Places like SD have chosen to focus on “price change” as the appeal. That only lasts so long though.
“Look at the other extreme - Detroit.
…would you want to buy one there?
No - because prices are falling.”
High home prices coupled with perennially warm weather also drive favorable selection for nice, wealthy neighbors who feel no need to ever steal from you.
Why would a major city consider it to be in its economic interest to price its potential future labor market out of the housing market?
Those that run this city and county have got theirs or are owned by those that do. They don’t give a damn about the affordability of housing to the labor market. Whatever is good for developers is good for them and bad for anyone seeking affordable housing.
This is one of the most poorly run major cities I’ve seen and it’s not for lack of resources. It’s being looted and run into the ground. I suppose I could’ve written that about the country too.
“Whatever is good for developers is good for them and bad for anyone seeking affordable housing.”
If they meant to be good to developers, it looks like they shot themselves in the foot, as the local building industry appears to currently be in virtual shutdown.
Why would a major city consider it to be in its economic interest to price its potential future labor market out of the housing market?
Who said I wanted to work? I want to buy a little 2/2 bungalow a block from MB and hang with the homies
I lived in San Diego in the late
’80’s’70’s, early’90’s’80’sOops.
When I left SD in ‘82 they were just starting to really ramp up the housing. I remember Poway being all horse property. Black Mountain was going under the blade and Rancho Bernardo was a developer’s fevered dream.
It’s sad to see what it’s become, but entirely avoidable if you live near the beach in one of the many lovely little burgs - Solana, San Diegito, Encinitas, Del Mar, etc.
…a developer’s fevered dream.
Nice.
‘When will the elephantine supply currently hiding under the living room rug finally show up where end users can clearly see it’
IMO, it’s there and has been there all along. This blog has tracked vacant houses since 2005, and the numbers have never been larger in history. Call it second homes or whatever, they largely represent speculation and speculators walk when the belief in profit goes away. That’s why we have record foreclosures.
Don’t sit around waiting on the government or the REIC to tell you there are too many houses in your area. Just look around; are there cars in the driveway? Are the utitlities on, the grass being cut? The other day here in Mohave I was looking for houses and I noticed that if I stopped looking for the address and looked at the yard or for a trustee sales notice on the door, there were many more abandoned houses than just the ones on my list.
Here’s a little side story from the front lines. Yesterday I went to a house in Bullhead City that I had done an initial secure on a month ago. At that time, I happened to talk to the next door neighbor, who told me he was renting from the same guy who “owned” the house I was repossessing. I didn’t/couldn’t tell him that his landlord had defaulted on this house and thought to myself, “well, I wonder if he’s making payments on the house this renter is living in?” Sure enough, I get there yesterday and there are all the foreclosure signs on the renters house and he’s gone. Plus, somebody got mad and ripped out the electrical connections to both at the ground box. All in a month.
“Don’t sit around waiting on the government or the REIC to tell you there are too many houses in your area.”
Your point is well taken, and brings to mind our San Diego fire evacuation experience in the 2007 Witch Creek fire. Our neighbor called at 5am to tell us homes in our zip code were on fire, and we were on the road by 6am. The local government did not issue its evacuation order until a couple of hours later, at which point the streets were flooded with cars. By contrast, we experienced a relatively smooth flow of traffic as we drove away from the fire.
A house across from me is in foreclosure, but when I looked it up it says it has sold. I don’t believe that.
Similarly, there are houses in our ‘hood with “Sale Pending” signs on the lawn which I know from the occupants to be rented to them.
FWIW - not all areas are like that - it’s not so easy to see. Where I live (NoVA) was a very bubbly area, but I physically see very few foreclosures around me at all. Some yards have weeds but that’s often just because people just don’t take care of them (I have a neighbor down the street like that).
try the google thing sfbaygal posted if you haven’t already.
Google
Maps
“Show search options”
select “real estate” on the drop-down list.
Tic the “foreclosure” box
I dunno how accurate or timely the google data is, but some streets and hoods are heavy with foreclosures.. some don’t have a one.
Yeah that’s what I mean. There are a lot of services like that actually, e.g. ForeclosurePoint, RealtyTrac, etc. - even zillow I think shows foreclosures. My point is you can’t just “take a look around” to gauge the level of foreclosures, since it completely depends on where you look.
That being said - I believe those services only include ones that are listed though, does they not? The question raised is how many are unlisted, and thus wouldn’t show up on those services.
Google etc. are not omniscient.
‘The question raised is how many are unlisted’
IMO, it’s the majority, at least in my neck of the woods. And if that’s the case, eyeballing the situation is more worthwhile than checking the MLS or websites. Also, look up the notices of default; it’s public record, the lenders have to file these and it will let you know what’s coming down the pipeline. Sure, not all NODs become foreclosures, but most will.
The lenders are letting probably many thousands of houses sit long after payments have stopped coming in. And while that plays out, nobody is taking care of the house, usually.
A really observant and practiced person might find telltale clues despite a generally cared for exterior.. window shades always down.. never a vehicle in the driveway.. no smoke from a chimney.. no mail or newspaper delivery.. i dunno what else.
i bet the mailman knows.. they don’t like to admit they’re snoops, but they know everything about everyone.
The lenders are letting probably many thousands of houses sit long after payments have stopped coming in.
Yep.
Foreclosure Backlog Imperils Recovery
By Renae Merle
Washington Post Staff Writer
Wednesday, June 24, 2009
A growing number of American homeowners are falling into financial limbo: They’re badly behind on payments, but their banks have not yet foreclosed.
The backlog of seriously delinquent mortgages, which so far affects about 1 million borrowers, is a shadow over hopes for a rebound in the nation’s housing markets. It masks the full extent of the foreclosure crisis and threatens to depress prices even further just as some parts of the country are hinting at recovery. For lenders, it could portend even more financial losses tied to the mortgage meltdown.
(emphasis mine)
‘telltale clues’
The yard is the easiest, as this takes regular (actual) work. The water is the first thing that gets cuts off for non-payment, so look for things drying up. Most areas have those annoying, free, classified papers that people will pick up and throw away. If you see 4 or 5 of those in the driveway turning yellow, there you go.
But is it just not visited very often? Here’s a tip that not many people are aware of; there is a little brown door hanger/envelope that the Hope for Homeowners program is distributing, and I see them on almost every foreclosure or pre-foreclosure. If the person isn’t around, or doesn’t care, those will just hand on the front door knob indefinitely. Those are easy to see from the street.
“A really observant and practiced person might find telltale clues despite a generally cared for exterior…”
For some reason my eyes are more and more instinctively being drawn to houses that I end up finding out list a bank as the owner. I seem to be finding one about every two weeks in this manner.
One near me that is owned by a major bank (with a far out of state address) is vacant but has furnishings still inside. I’d passed it many times when, one day, things just didn’t seem the same. After a few drive by’s with no activity I got curious and found it was owned by the bank.
I put an offer on it last week at about 20% of its assessed value. If they ever get to looking at it, they’ll likely laugh but its no sweat for me.
I’ll likely take the Andy Dufresne approach to getting his library books in Shawshank Redemption: send them a letter a week until someone responds.
“The yard is the easiest, as this takes regular (actual) work. The water is the first thing that gets cuts off for non-payment, so look for things drying up.”
Our neighbor across the street has an awfully dry lawn, but I assumed it was because of a self-imposed water ration. I may have to ask around to see whether the rationing was internally or externally imposed…
“I dunno how accurate or timely the google data is, but some streets and hoods are heavy with foreclosures.. some don’t have a one.”
I looked at the Google site and thought it was cool, but on close up view, the numbers of vacancies shown on the maps do not seem nearly high enough to match ground level reality. I have to agree with other posters that these maps don’t have full information about which homes are vacant; one gets a good sense on my daily commute, when I pass thousands of homes built over the past decade with only hundreds of cars going in and out of the developments.
Now there’s an idea. If an FB forecloses, instead of letting the FB stay there payment-free, the bank should arrange to shut off the utilities. That should throw the FB out FAST.
oxide, I doubt the bank has the right to shut off utilities, as the utility accounts are in the FB’s name.
look up the notices of default; it’s public record,
The weekly entertainment news rags are 3/4 filled with NODs.
or more. That print is so tiny though!
Packman-
We have a TON of foreclosures here in NoVa that still have the owners in them
I have a pal that’s been living in a house 2 years now with no payments made - in South Riding
I did a google map foreclosure search in a few zipcodes in oakland, ca and there are 2 times as many foreclosures as non foreclosures. But then most of the foreclosures aren’t on the market. They are shown as preforeclosure, having missed at at least one payment. I wonder how long it’s going to take to get them on the market and sold?
I think the banks are still overwhelmed. I have called on a few in my neighborhood and the listing agents have told me the banks are still trying to decide what to price at.
That seems the likeliest explanation really. All I know is that the newly built and newly converted buildings in my hood just sit there empty - not sold - not rented. If the price was right, they’d be occupied one way or the other.
It’s getting scary, as I photographed these projects in 2005 and 2006, and here it is coming up on 2010! How long can these guys hold out?
I’ve got a neighbor who has had a house in my ‘hood on the market since the winter of ‘05. Bought the house for $183K. First listed it for $285K. This spring it was up for $183K. He’s been chasing the market down the whole time. I don’t see that house going for more than $115K ever. Poor, stupid bastard.
He’s gotten heavily involved with the HOA and trying to spruce up every house in the neighborhood. I go out of my way to mow now as little as possible.
Do what Ben said. I discovered an abandoned VA property just driving around. Pulled the county records and it has been foreclosed since April. Called the loan servicer about 3 weeks ago to get the listing agents name. She does not even have a clue about the properties condition. Darn thing is still sitting there. It hasn’t been listed and probably won’t be listed for another 2 months.
What’s more, a lot of short sales will become foreclosures and a lot of the empty and overpriced properties on MLS will probably also go into the foreclosure pile.
Why wait for a listing? Deal direct. Take pics of all the bad stuff and forward that to the servicer or the bank that owns it with your contingent offer. Tell them winter’s coming soon and they don’t want to let the house suffer even more damage.
I have a friend that sends short sale packets to these guys all the time and he plays the fear card on every one of them.
And then WTF does your friend do with all the houses of which he is the proud new owner?
Resells them.
somebody got mad and ripped out the electrical connections to both at the ground box
Boy that sounds like someone is trying out for a Darwin Award.
That’s the same thought that zapped through my mind.
Now that copper prices have crashed you hear a lot less about this. There was a spate of articles a couple of years ago about would-be copper thieves electrocuting themselves trying to steal live high-voltage cables.
They bypassed the judicial system and went ahead and executed themselves. If this catches on, it’ll be deflationary.
Meaning - if you catch on to a live wire, your lungs deflate?
the poor lawyers won’t get their cut…there goes the lexus market
Copper prices crashed? But they’re back. They were way up in the $3’s per pound about two years ago, then dropped like a rock, but now copper is back to $2.85/lb or so.
They bypassed the judicial system and went ahead and executed themselves. If this catches on, it’ll be deflationary.
Sloth, this is an energizing idea.
And as for copper, why so much yo yo?
(Copper) probably much the same pattern as gold…commodities in general were inflating a couple of years ago, then there was a panic re shortage of dollars and the dollar went way up (sending all commodities way down); more recently the dollar has been soft.
Ben,
What did you tell the neighbor you were doing at the house, since it sounds like you can’t tell him specifically?
I told him what I always tell them, even if I am changing the lock;
“I’m just here to cut the grass”
“I’m just here to cut the grass”
Why does this sound like a tag line for a Cohen Bros movie?
Ben Jones… Lawnmower Man.
(Yes, I know Lawnmower Man was some horrible dreck based on a Steven King short story - but I didn’t think the two thoughts required separate posts)
I noticed that if I stopped looking for the address and looked at the yard
I have been using that tact since 93 and it proves out most of the time. As we drive down the street, ‘I’ slam on the brakes to write down address. It isn’t the ones with signs on, it is the ones i disrepair, slightly unkempt. It means ‘they’ don’t have enough $ to mow/water lawn and it is in the beginning aspects of abandonment/foreclosure. Like Ben suggests, one had to develop an eye for houses ready to pop.
That is what I am seeing all around here. Lots of levels of decline in a house/property with no signs on windows etc.
My suspicion is bank REOs will slowly but steadily trickle out into the market, the speed of which will be determined by that bank’s income.
In other words, when the bank has earned enough where it can afford to take the loss on some property, that one property is released to the market.
In this way, REO inventory will be reduced without banks taking a heavy loss, while at the same time causing a large, sudden overall property price decline.
Prices WILL decline to affordable levels regardless, but in a controlled manner.
The trickle should speed up somewhat as the general economy improves.. a larger number of qualified buyers are created.. various sources of banks’ income improves.. and banks can afford to write off more losses.
—–
As for private seller “hidden inventory”, unless they must sell I don’t consider them a legitimate seller, and i don’t view that property as hidden inventory.
While changing conditions might force some to sell, the majority may not be willing to drop asking price and sell as long as there is hope of an RE price recovery or rebound.
Once the market bottoms and lays there dead for a while and wishing prices are exposed as the sad joke they are, sellers will either accept a market price or will not sell the property.
joeyinCalif,
I agree, and it’s been a lot of our suspicions all along. Probably irks most of us that virtually NO other business would be given this level of latitude!
Try sitting on a couple of gross’ of beta-max players and explaining to your LL “You’ll get caught up on rent just as soon as you can move some of this merchandise”. I think ‘that’ is what’s frying people’s bananas.
Most buyers want to see prices plunge NOW.. and not only that, but fall so fast there’s significant overshoot. Aint gonna happen, imo..
And as a result a lot will run out of patience and go off prematurely, further reducing qualified buyer competition at the bottom.
(insert snappy quote extolling the many benefits of endless patience here)
‘NO other business would be given this level of latitude’
Let’s take that a step further. Not only are they getting away with this stuff, but the government is encouraging people to buy at todays prices, before this inventory hits the market. I’ve been making the point for a while that this is setting up current buyers to be eventually underwater and, tada!, they walk away.
Really smart move, Washington, and since I’ve mentioned this on radio shows, etc, you can count on me to put it right back in your face when it comes to pass.
Idiots.
Really smart move, Washington, and since I’ve mentioned this on radio shows, etc, you can count on me to put it right back in your face when it comes to pass.
Idiots.
Reason #6,429 in my list of reasons why I like Ben and his blog so much.
…setting up current buyers to be eventually underwater and, tada!, they walk away…
i agree but, imo, conditions have changed somewhat and risk of walkaways is less now than before.
Current buyers are comparatively few..
At least some down payment is becoming common..
It’s a lot tougher to qualify.. strawberry pickers need not apply.
Prices are more affordable now than before..
The distance to the bottom is shrinking day by day..
Govt will throw money at the problem until either money or the problem is gone.
PA told me she/H bought a 4closure this summer in the Pass, nice area above not so nice. 40+ yr old home needed new roof etc. They are doing all the work. I asked size and $.
LG= she didnt’ know sq’ 4/3. but a real fixer. $260k.
As a PA, she will always have a career. But even 260 is still a little steep IMHO.
I didn’t rain on her parade.
joeyinCalif said
“At least some down payment is becoming common.
It’s a lot tougher to qualify.. strawberry pickers need not apply.”
Add the caveat that a lot of current buyers are going FHA ($417K IIRC is the cap)and using the $8,000 (Cap) as a down payment. I don’t think they need more than 3.5% down and the FICO doesn’t have to be very high.
For those of us looking for a home in this range (So Ca), it’s harder for us. We have cash, good credit, and home prices are being stubborn.
We’re paying cash, and competing with leverage.
We’re paying cash, and competing with leverage.
Exactly right…and this has been the problem all along during the boom.
The mortgaged buyers don’t really care much about falling prices because they have nothing to lose if they walk away. In the meantime, the cash or high-down payment buyers are scared witless because we don’t want to lose our actual cash.
This makes for a very uneven market, and until the leveraged fools are washed out, the stronger buyers will remain inclined to stay on the sidelines.
We are also very frustrated by the apparent over-abundance of giddy buyers with their $8,000 tax credit and 3.5% FHA loans — not to mention the really large seller give-backs/credits I’ve been hearing about.
PB, It’s like this also in the glorious NYC retirement community of Vermont. A local free rag lists weekly foreclosures and there appear to be about 8-10 a week. These never sell. In fact it is claimed (I don’t know where this data comes from) that only 1 in 10 foreclosure auctions DON’T end up going to the bank. What the hell are the banks doing with all these properties? Are Fannie and Freddie just sitting on the <$417k house and the banks sitting on the rest?
There are so many attempts at price fixing the housing market right now that it’s utterly mind boggling.
I was just in VT for a week. Visited my family in Waterbury.
Was truly amazed by the lack of “No Vacancy” signs on the hotels, motels, and B&Bs. I didn’t see a single one.
Was also struck by the amount of raw land and houses up for sale. This was also true in Quebec. Seems that FSBO is much more common in QC, at least from what my aunt and I saw while driving around up there.
In Vermont, August is the month in which it receives the most out-of-state visitors.
Apparently, the staycation is still gaining in popularity!
Darth… I notice the same REO on and off the radar in Rutland Co. VT and Washington Co NY all the time. The length of time they stay “4 sale” is completely random and then drops off and might show up again 3, 4, 5 or 6 months later. Then drop off again.
Also, the sneaker wearing NYC/CT/NJ retards returning to their own state appears to be picking up. I’ve noticed alot of gargantuan architectural blight (a key indicator of flatlanders) coming on the market. Of course they’re grossly overpriced, however the sentiment is there. The sentiment to LEAVE. Good riddance.
Oh, exeter, you just reminded me of something else. And that is how few out of state license plates I saw during my VT visit. Used to see the MA, NY, CT, and other northeastern state plates in droves. Not this summer.
exeter -
Are you not living in flatlander territory in NY yourself? Sucking on that government teat until it runs dry…?
And really, why all the venom against sneakers or retards?
Your sneakers are too tight…….. retard.
You’re mean, exeter!
Sometimes the truth is harsh.
Central Coast comment: The inventory of under-$600K houses in Morro Bay rose a bit in the fall-winter of 2006-07, and has not been any higher at any time since then. More of the houses are FC’s now, and the prices have come down a good 25%, but the inventory is somehow being managed. What the hey, I don’t care, if the prices continue to decline.
What is the zip for slo and mo bay that you are looking at?
Ocean front or otherwise?
And bankruptcies are way up from last year, almost to the level that they were at before the law change*. Surprise, surprise, making bankruptcy harder didn’t make the profligate less willing to borrow their way to the poor house, it just enabled lenders to make even dumber loans.
*not the bubble of bankruptcies just before the law took effect, but to the level that persuaded lawmakers that changing the law would be a good idea.
And bankruptcies are way up from last year, almost to the level that they were at before the law change*. Surprise, surprise, making bankruptcy harder didn’t make the profligate less willing to borrow their way to the poor house, it just enabled lenders to make even dumber loans.
Most borrowed before during and slightly after the laws were changed. The PTB recognized that a sh!t storm was coming and so they started to batten down the hatches and changed the bankruptcy laws. It’s what got me to sell my house, find this blog, and later sell all my stocks. I new things were about to get bad if they felt a need to push this kind of legislation. As I recall there hadn’t been a huge spike in bankruptcy at the time.
“As I recall there hadn’t been a huge spike in bankruptcy at the time.”
Not sure what time frame you’re referencing. For years prior to the 2005 amendments, there had been a steady upward movement in the number of filing, which the banking and credit card lobby (who flat out bought from Congress the changes that they largely wrote) found alarming in light of what was perceived to be a generally well performing economy after the early 90s recession ended. Prior to 1990 or so, the number of cases would go down in good years. The phenomenon of rising numbers even when the economy is considered good made the banks very nervous. (Side note: not by coincidence did the banking lobby begin to push for changes in bankruptcy code starting around ‘95 or so. It just took them a while to get what they wanted).
In the month before the changes became effective, the number of filings spiked and life became rather busy for a while. There were a rash of filing by docs and other highly compensated but broke types because the new rules made it far harder for this group to file a Chapter 7 and walk away. Fun times . . . .
Of course it was easier (or at least cheaper) to buy a new bankruptcy law than to do a better job of figuring out which borrowers would be likely to stiff them through bankrputcy. Because the best profits were to lend to the very edge of bankruptcy, where interest, fees and penalties can make lending very profitabe indeed. But discouraging lenders from doing this is one of the reasons that we HAVE bankruptcy protection.
Funny thing is, the banks haven’t got much to show for all their effort and money in bribing Congress to get the changes they wanted. The mix between chapter7 and 13 hasn’t changed that much since 2005, because the number of debtors who fail the means test isn’t anywhere near what the CC issuers and banks thought that it would be. Although there were anectodal instances of debtors who could pay something back to their creditors but simply chose not to do so, the vast majority of people filing (then and now) are simply middle and lower middle class types who don’t make a ton of money, but got themselves into a boatload of debt.
Although there were anectodal instances of debtors who could pay something back to their creditors but simply chose not to do so, the vast majority of people filing (then and now) are simply middle and lower middle class types who don’t make a ton of money, but got themselves into a boatload of debt.
This doesn’t bode well for the future of the debt industry. Especially since the payment makers are going on strike.
The PTB recognized that a sh!t storm was coming and so they started to batten down the hatches and changed the bankruptcy laws. I
Measton, Goirishgohoosiers is accurate. The new law wasn’t written because a “sh!T storm was coming” it was because the cc lobby wanted even more money and benefits for corps. They just wanted another angle to skroo the little middle folks ie; not corps.
purdue born hoosier.
‘Ol Plugs is something else, this on the heels of the jobs report…
Biden: Stimulus doing more `than we had hoped’
9-3-09
WASHINGTON (AP) - Trumpeting economic progress to a skeptical nation, Vice President Joe Biden says the massive government program intended to stimulate and reshape the economy is reaching and exceeding goals.
Nearly 200 days into the effort, Biden says it is more effective “than we had hoped.”
Biden’s upbeat report card, to be delivered Thursday in a speech at the Brookings Institution, comes as economists say the country is slowly breaking free of the most crippling recession in decades. Yet public angst is also deepening about the cost of government intervention, and millions of people remain out of work.
At the heart of President Barack Obama’s agenda for an economic turnaround is the $787 billion package he signed into law on Feb. 17. The effectiveness of the two-year program is a matter of sharp political debate; Biden, the administration’s point man on the issue, is aiming to show a restless public that results are tangible.
“Recovery act dollars are going farther and working harder than we anticipated,” Biden said in excerpts released in advance by his office.
Okay, Joe, prove it.
OTOH, I’m very much in favor of improving our country’s infrastructure. I just visited Canada, and I was struck by how much better shape their infrastructure’s in. And this was in rural Quebec, which is nowhere near as prosperous as, say, Ontario around Toronto.
‘Ol Plugs
damn, wmbz. How are you to your friends? yikes.
yes, kinda funny, but really you have one sharp backhand all the time.
Cool. Raise the interest reate then.
It’s doing such a “swell” job, by golly, so it would do twice as “swell” if we spend another $787 billion of responsible savers’ money!
What is 4000 as a percentage of 570,000?
(4000/570,000)*100 = 0.7 percent.
So why not say, “New jobless claims essentially unchanged last week” instead of including a data blip in the article title?
The data would be far more useful if “New weekly hires” were included, so one could figure out the net change in employment, instead of just the negative side of the equation. But my recollection is that any new claims figure north of 400,000 is considered recessionary. The real news is that weekly new claims remain stuck at 170,000, or 42.5 percent, above the standard rule-of-thumb threshold for recessionary labor market conditions.
The rise in continuing claims is also not pretty, especially given that some people may be dropping off the rolls due to expiration of benefits.
Economic Report
Sep 3, 2009, 9:00 a.m. EST
New jobless claims down 4,000 to 570,000 last week
Continuing claims rise 92,000 to 6.23 million, U.S. data show on eve of payrolls
By Rex Nutting, MarketWatch
WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) — The number of people filing for state unemployment benefits for the first time fell by 4,000 to a seasonally adjusted 570,000 last week, the Labor Department reported Thursday.
…
One of my former co-workers just found employment at about half his former wage after four months on unemployment.
half his former wage after four months on unemployment ??
IMO, The most overlooked and underreported data point out there….Its acute….It could be pointing to a secular change in income (as compared to past years) that we have not integrated into our expectations going forward…
The New York Times had an article about how it’s hard to return to the same wage level after a layoff on Aug 3rd (Income Loss Persists Long After Layoffs)
IMO, The most overlooked and underreported data point out there….Its acute….It could be pointing to a secular change in income (as compared to past years) that we have not integrated into our expectations going forward…
I think you’re correct. I think it’s part of a broad-based wage deflation that will eventually work through much of the labor force with a long list of potential impacts, both economic and non-economic.
My wife was at home mom taking care of my son for 8 years. She was a Project Manager. She wanted to go back to work but she was making tons of dough when she left 8 years back. I told her that she should start from the bottom becuase she was out of work for quite some time. She took a job that paid only 25% of what she made when she left the workforce. No big deal. It was like meeting new friends and still have some pocket money to boot. We’ll she is now managing over 40 people, company is now over 500 strong where when she got hired, she was the 5th employee. She is probably getting 10 times what she started with. Go figure. Sacrifice a little and some hard work and dedication goes a long way.
That is a great story, so congratulations, but it is not a mathematical equation that works out that way for everyone. Lots of people sacrifice, work hard, and are dedicated, yet do not end up so well off.
We just had a Dry Chem guy came in to clean our home. He used to be subprime loan officer making low 100’s. He told me that he had given up his home and 1 car to survive on his new monthly income of $2K. He’s employed but underemployed by a lot. Basically, we’re seeing a lot of folks are living paycheck to paycheck without any disposable income. Retail sales will be in trouble real soon.
You are such a fount of information. Thank you for the lessons!
I’m starting to think math is sexy.
Above post referring to PB.
What is 4000 as a percentage of 570,000?
(4000/570,000)*100 = 0.7 percent.
So why not say, “New jobless claims essentially unchanged last week” instead of including a data blip in the article title?
Setting up the market for “better-than-expected” retail sales figures:
Weak retail report cards likely, analysts say
By MAE ANDERSON (AP) – 20 hours ago
NEW YORK — It may be the beginning of the year for students, but for retailers, it’s report-card time. Analysts expect the early grades on the back-to-school selling season to be weak when retailers report August results Thursday.
The results will give insight into whether consumers opened their wallets after months of keeping them closed amid the recession, and how well back-to-school offerings such as trendy jeans, dresses and T-shirts are being received.
…
I can remember being dragged away from a good book so that my mother could take me Back To School shopping. It was a real ordeal, because young Slim was not a fashionista.
And I can blame my father’s side of the family for this trait. Dad was (and is) a research engineer. He used to go to the lab wearing mismatched socks. Invariably, someone would point this out to him. Dad would look down at his socks and say, “I have another pair exactly like it at home.”
These days, I’d still rather read a good book than go clothes shopping.
I recall reading that Einstein (or perhaps it was another reknown physicist) had something like 11 pairs of identical brown socks. Or maybe it was nine… well, no matter.
In any case, it was all he wore… just to avoid the “mistake” your dad made!
wearing mismatched
Mismatched shoes. On a date once in NYC.
As we were crossing st to fab italian bakery for cannoli
delicacies, he noted 2 completely opposite type of shoes.
Wasn’t a 2nd date.
Your dad could only get away with this due to already married!
Thank goodness for ger ani mals?
My father’s non-fashion sense has driven my mother bonkers for, oh, 60 years now. She lets him know about it too. Mom’s a world-class yeller. Dad has survived by tuning her out.
As for me, I am of the mind that it’s better to gently let my father know that his tie is askew or that going for a run in his pajamas might not be appropriate. Especially if his running route happens to go through Sorority Row. (This actually happened in Ann Arbor last year.)
c’mon fess up, how messed up were you when you were getting dressed that night?
I almost left the house with mismatched shoes one morning when I had a killer hangover. And a coworker once discovered her wrongly paired loafers when she was already at work.
which led to much hilarity all around
(hey it was NYC you should have told him it was the latest trend…you know how NYers hate to be out of the style loop)
Not messed up at all, which is really confusing.
APT was really low light, and was probably the reason
a taxi pulled over for the “redhead” when I first used henna.
I immediately thought I might have overdone it.
I probably could have used that fashionista line.
Well if he didn’t like the ‘creative’ side of me then pfft!
Where I once worked the company president was fooling around on his wife and got kicked out of the house. No problem - he went to live temporarily on his 40′ sailboat.
But the lighting wasn’t that good and one day he showed up at work with one brown shoe and one black shoe.
The next day, every manager at the company showed up with one brown shoe and one black shoe. You have to follow the fashion sense set by the top men, right?
Men to this day leave the lower button undone on a suit vest because King Edward VII was to chubby to button his.
Funny story!
The stock market seems as good as gold these days.
market pulse
Sep 3, 2009, 8:25 a.m. EST
Gold approaches $990 an ounce as dollar weakens
By Moming Zhou
NEW YORK (MarketWatch) — Gold futures rose Thursday for a second session to approach $990 an ounce, as the U.S. dollar moved lower after the European Central Bank kept its interest rate unchanged, raising gold’s appeal as an alternative investment. Dec. gold rose $0.9% to $986.90 an ounce in early North American trading, after rising as high as $989.50 an ounce. Benchmark gold futures contracts haven’t closed above $990 since February.
…
Big Move Coming
Puru Saxena
Sep 3, 2009
It looks as though the multi-month correction in precious metals is coming to an end and very soon, we are going to get a major move. If the bull-market is still intact, then gold should break above US$1,000 per ounce within a few weeks. However, if the price of gold fails to do this, we could see a sharp decline in bullion and precious metals mining stocks. Put simply, if the price of gold fails to climb past US$1,000 per ounce and instead, it falls below US$920 per ounce, it will be a negative omen. At that point, our suggestion would be to immediately sell precious metals and related stocks.
Yes, the macro-economic is wildly bullish for precious metals and we have been bulls since 2001. But this has now become a very crowded trade and in order to sustain the bull-market, gold must trade above US$1,000 per ounce. Today, most precious metals investors are positioned for an explosive rally and if gold fails to climb to new highs very soon, we may get forced liquidation from the frustrated bulls. Under this bearish scenario, the price of gold and other precious metals could plummet and this is the reason why we are suggesting that you exit your ‘long’ positions if gold breaks below US$920 per ounce. Although the weekly chart for gold looks like a gigantic ‘inverse head & shoulders’ bottom formation, it could also turn out to be a massive double top. Remember, gold’s chart pattern looks eerily similar to copper; just before it staged a spectacular decline last year. So, we will have to wait and see how things play out for precious metals.
In our view, the direction of gold’s breakout will depend on the US Dollar Index, which is currently trading above a major support level. Yesterday, the US Dollar Index managed to break out of its declining trend and this is good news for the greenback. Over the following days, if the US Dollar Index closes above the 80 level, it will be a big positive for the American currency and a drag on precious metals. Conversely, if the US Dollar Index breaks below the 77 level, it will usher in the anticipated rally in precious metals. So, in the near-term, we suggest that you keep a close eye on the US Dollar Index as movements over here will determine the fate of gold and silver.
In summary, if gold fails to reach new highs and on the contrary, if it breaks below US$920 per ounce, we urge you to liquidate your holdings in precious metals. Moreover, if the US Dollar Index breaks above the 80 level, we advise you to convert your cash reserves to the American currency.
This strategy may seem flippant to some of our readers but given all the uncertainty in the economy, we do not want to dismiss any possibility. More importantly, we want to ensure that we are prepared for all eventualities. Remember, Wall Street is littered with the graves of those who got married to one market forecast and failed to smell change. Instead, we prefer to be vigilant and will continue to adjust our investment positions based on market action.
The above Update was sent out to subscribers of Money Matters on 2 September 2009.
Note to self - don’t ever subscribe to Money Matters; they’re clueless.
So basically they’re saying - “It might do A, but if it doesn’t then it won’t”.
And relating gold to copper? Um… yeah.
In a nutshell: If it goes up, buy. If it goes down, sell.
Thank you, I am no longer confused.
…If it goes up, buy. If it goes down, sell.
Professional commodities traders, having the resources to thoroughly research all aspects of some market, probably view things somewhat differently.
If there’s firm data showing it will probably go up, buy. If the data shows it will likely go down, sell.
We can’t compete with those guys.. all we can do is place a bet, stand back and hope for the best.
Why get fixated on GLD when NatGas is at 7 year low?
If UNG get’s into the 4-$6 range, I think it’s a buy for me. NG won’t stay at these lows forever.
wmbz,
DEFinitely *not* Investment Advice but..? As the article mentions, GLD is getting to be a “crowded trade” so expectations are running high on both sides.
I’m not going to throw money at ‘this’ or any other ‘thing’ to make a statement. If you have profits, lock ‘em and call it good. Time to move on.
“If the bull-market is still intact, then gold should break above US$1,000 per ounce within a few weeks.”
Or maybe even today?
From MarketWatch dot com:
Gold 998 20 1.99%
Odd thing is this is happening without a dollar fall.
Weird.
What do you suspect?
Ramadan bump plus september is an ‘up’ gold month historically?
Against some advice on this blog, I did submit an offer on that house a few days ago. They had until yesterday to accept. Haven’t heard a thing yet. Assuming that means no and I’ll hear from my realtor at some point.
Anyway, I was nervous to make the offer, then excited that I’d made it, then reading the blog yesterday made me feel anxious again and somewhat hoping they didn’t accept, and then I got over that and did want them to accept, and now I don’t know what to think. I get ticked when people reject my offers. But we’re coming from two very different views on the market so my odds are always longshots as it is.
However, were they to accept it, the mortgage amount was 2.7x my salary and I was going 20% down, 30-year fixed. Plus, it was an 18% under asking offer. I feel like it made sense (and it was easily doable for me, in the school district and zip codes I wanted).
Oh well.
18% below ask in Philly burbs -
will be interpreted as an insult.
I predict seller will reject your bid.
Probably true. However, I’ve heard of so many settlements recently that end up not happening in the 11th hour due to one reason or another. This house is empty and I can settle by end of September (heck, I could settle tomorrow) - no contingencies, no requests for seller to assist or do any work to the house or anything - so I thought that might give me an advantage.
And…their asking price of $205/sq. foot for a home that needs “TLC” is insulting to me.
It sounds like you really want to settle down.
In order to do that soon, at a reasonable price that won’t compromise you in future, you will need to subvert the “establishment”. Do you know any attorneys, or paralegals? Anyone who works at the county court house? You need to find yourself a truly motivated seller, through the grapevine. Someone who wants to QUICKLY settle an estate, a divorce situation, one of those deals. And then you take your 20% downpayment and it becomes a 50% downpayment because a truly motivated seller will not look at a lowball as an insult. They will look on it as a godsend.
The best deals never make it to the MLS.
Good advise - also Title Companies.
Best,
Leigh
Leigh-
Help me out - how do Title Co’s know about “deals”?
thanks!
Leigh-
Help me out - how do Title Co’s know about “deals”?
Yep, do they get upfront notifications?-thanks
$205 less 18% is about $168 per square foot. It better be in a very upscale Philadelphia suburb. And in perfect condition.
What’s your PITI going to be? Have you compared that to any nearby rentals?
If this one failed, there will be no shortage of opportunities in the future.
Extremely true. We had two failed lowballs before getting one accepted.
DO NOT WEAKEN! Keep to your lowballin’ guns.
Isn’t it a little early in the year for your seasonal affective disorder need to buy a house thing?
And you didn’t even give us the chance to beg you not to jump!
The party is just getting started.
were they to accept it, the mortgage amount was 2.7x my salary and I was going 20% down, 30-year fixed.
Sounds reasonable. But is your salary fixed for 30 years? For most people, it isn’t.
The problem I always see with these types of calculations is you’re funding a long-term expense with a short-term income stream. In financial industry parlance, it’s a severe asset-liability mismatch.
I believe my job (and company) to be on the higher end of secure (not foolish enough to think I’d never possibly be laid off, but still). I’ve been here 6.5 years and have been promoted several times (most recently a year ago).
I’ve lived many years somewhat fearful to jump into one thing or another (real estate included) based on worry about possibly losing a job and what then? At some point, I need to get past that or I’ll never take a chance.
That said, I won’t pay full asking prices in this market. I’ll offer what makes sense to me based on historical fundamentals and go from there. That will probably leave me as a renter for a while (but not a bitter one as I have a month-to-month, rent controlled lease).
btw, Blue Skye - I think the out-of-sync seasonal affective disorder is based on my little guy starting Kindergarten next week…
Put an ad in your local rag saying you have
cash for properties.
I knew a guy who did this for years and picked
up some great distressed properties for peanuts.
Or put a sign on your car.
Either way, good idea.
2.7 X income with a relatively secure job, with a toddler, in a location that you like and no desire or possibility of leaving the area for the foreseebale future ??
I say; Go for it…
In 1994 I was able to get a 15-year mortgage, not a 30, for a small share of our combined income. That meant that we were each able to work part time when our kids were young, a period I will always cherish. And later it allowed us to save a lot, and give to charity.
To get there, we had to wait seven years from the peak for capitulation. And we has to walk away from a house, only to end up buying it for exactly what we offered nine months later.
We’re in year three or four, depending on how you look at it. The funny financing made the adjustment happen faster in the sand states, but not on the East Coast.
Shoot for a 15-year on one income if you are married with (or soon to have) children. If you are single, what do you need a house for anyway?
Single parent of one just-about-to-start Kindergarten child. Believe me, I agree with “if you are single, what do you need a house for anyway?”…that’s why I never bought - even during the rational times (back then I liked moving around too much, too - from Philly to Chicago and back, twice…because I could).
I am settled now. And okay with it. It’s the right time in my life, just the wrong market. If I have to wait another 5-10 years, then it is what it is. But by then, I may not care anymore because who wants to take on a mortgage at around age 50. Though maybe I’ll have enough cash by then. It could happen.
That meant that we were each able to work part time when our kids were young, a period I will always cherish.
That is fantastic.
For most Americans, however, would also require a seismic shift in the way they live, consume, and accumulate debt.
Well, hmmm. The arguments against you buying now are good ones, easty.
)
However, I’m a homoaner and I’m happy about it. The value may have gone down since I bought it, but I don’t care. I didn’t buy it as an ‘investment’, to flip and get rich selling to a greater fool down the road. I bought it to live in it.
It’s what I wanted, in a place I love and don’t intend to leave.
I was very anxious when I debated buying, man, the stress! I had a hard time sleeping, worried and fretted….I’m sure you know what I mean. It’s a HUGE decision, after all! Or it ought to be, anyway.
But I’m glad I did. So, that’s my 10 cents (not 2 cents–inflationary, you know.
Anyway, good luck to you and your kiddie and I hope it all works out super-fantastic, whatever happens next.
“To get there, we had to wait seven years from the peak for capitulation. And we had to walk away from a house, only to end up buying it for exactly what we offered nine months later.”
Let’s see: 2006 + 7 = 2013…
PB:
Yep. 2013 sounds exactly like my time frame. I’ll be a little old for my first house, but it is what it is…
I understand about the kids. Mine are sprouting their own these days.
i see a lot of emotional stuff in your post. Emotions are generally ok.. but they are a burden, can obscure reality, and are a very poor guide when you’re committing to spending big-time money while accepting a long term commitment.
People should have the patience to wait til something comes along that leaves little or no room for doubt, imo.
This market offers (or will offer) once in a lifetime opportunities, and it deserves some extra measure of respect.
What’s wrong with a little emotion, so long as it does not lead you to make bad decisions?
what’s wrong with doing or thinking anything if it doesn’t lead to bad things?
you gotta watch that new program.. Shark Tank.. wealthy investors interview people who want backing for their new businesses or ideas. At least once every show, one of them detects emotion and points out that money is unemotional.. and so should you be.
Good show. Viciousssssssss my precioussssssss
It’s an official “no” - offer too low.
Stay the course! Serial lowball offers are your ticket into affordable entry to the Ownership Society.
Wait a few months and submit a lower offer.
Rinse and repeat until they get panicky.
If you really want to play dirty, get some friends to make much lower offers on the same place.
If you really want to play dirty, get some friends to make much lower offers on the same place.
That’s a freakin’ GREAT idea!
“If you really want to play dirty, get some friends to make much lower offers on the same place.”
That reminds me of a new car purchase strategy I recent had described to me:
1) Husband and wife go in to dealer’s to make a cash offer on a new vehicle. The dealer is offering 0 pct financing, but the husband waves the offer, instead pushing for the lowest cash offer price he can get.
2) After the dealer offers an attractive cash offer, wifey throws a hissy fit, arguing that they need the cash for their upcoming Hawaii vacation, or whatever. The husband looks dismayed, and suggests that perhaps they should have discussed how they would finance the deal before coming in to the dealer’s.
3) To make it all good, the dealer throws in zero percent financing at the cash offer price.
It’s the reverse of the “There are multiple offers on the property!”
The only problem is you need friends with enough cash/gumption to pull off the ruse, and are willing to transfer the sale/etc to you if they get the house by some weird twist of fate. You WILL need enough of an earnest deposit to make the offer look real, and you’ll need good back-out contigencies so they can get their deposit back if they accidentally become a buyer.
sfbubble couldn’t you just have a double escrow and your ‘friends’ would never have to ante up?
And of course the ‘friends’ would definitely want this in writing with you, otherwise, yikes. Back out clauses for sure!
To make it all good, the dealer throws in zero percent financing at the cash offer price.
I heard something similar years ago, but with financing vs cash, because dealers get a cut of the financing.
1 - Get a deal based on financing through the dealer
2 - Get the contract signed to buy the car
3 - Pay in cash
Congratulations!
That’s what they told us on the house we’re closing on in 7 days.
Ping them again in a month if it’s still there. If they manage to get it sold, good for them. Prices are only going down or at best stagnating for a few more years. You have plenty of time.
Wait a few months and submit a lower offer.
Rinse and repeat until they get panicky.
If you really want to play dirty, get some friends to make much lower offers on the same place.
These are good ideas. Will keep them in noggin when time is right for moi.
Thanks for fighting on the front lines of the War on Irrational Home Pricing. I am a bit too unmotivated of a prospective buyer to do this; still expecting a paradigm shift surfing in on the foreclosure tsunami to eventually drive the market to capitulation, regardless of govt efforts to prevent this eventuality.
I agree with you. We would have been wiser to wait 2-3 years. There were some mitigating circumstances that made it a less bad decision besides just price alone. But the house, and more importantly the double (almost triple, it’s over 1/3 of an acre in the penninsula) sized lot, was enough to make us take a shot at the lowball.
I wonder how annoyed the neighborhood will be when the see the comp we set.
“However, were they to accept it, the mortgage amount was 2.7x my salary and I was going 20% down, 30-year fixed. Plus, it was an 18% under asking offer.”
How is that in any way against the advice on this blog? Sounds like you lined it up perfectly; now be prepared to repeat this strategy as long as necessary to get an offer accepted, and you will have joined the Ownership Society without unintentionally also joining the Debtorship Society.
You might be surprised. The problem with lowballing is sometimes people accept your lowballs, then you’ve caught yourself a knife.
My wife and I had a 15% off lowball (~30% off original asking) accepted because we happened to be the offer that was in when the sellers finally gave up and capitulated.
It was the second time we’d offered on the house. They told us we ‘weren’t serious’ with our original lowball and first counter (which was 20% off and 17.5% off respectively, we expected to counter back and forth to our max of 15% off) and said they were working with another buyer. We later found out that the other buyer had offered them 12.5% off, the seller countered, and the buyer walked and bought another house. Fast forward a month and the buyers gave up and took our 15% off offer when they tried going back to the other buyer and he gave them the middle finger.
If you really like the house, wait a little while and try again. A few weeks to a month after a price reduction is a good time to go in and try a lowball.
Important pieces of advice for lowballers:
1) Make sure your offer is in line with other prospective buyers in the area can afford, based on their incomes (not crazy loans from the FHA etc), as ultimately, it is end user incomes which support local home prices. A risk well-qualified buyers face in this market is overpaying, due to being unaware that their ability to pay is way above other prospective buyers’ in the area where they are buying.
2) If you can afford to wait a year or two to make a home purchase, why not find out whether the 77 pct of US home owners who currently expect their homes’ values to stay flat or drop over the next year are correct? What do you have to lose by renting another year if prices are still falling?
Very true. I think we made a mistake buying early, but we tried to mitigate it by driving a ridiculously hard bargain and we were able to do so only because the sellers had a hard deadline and had been farting around by ‘not going to give it away’ for six months.
We were the lowest offer they got by quite a bit. They are heirs who live out of the area, and they are pissed at us for the price and pissed at eachother for not taking the first offer, the second offer, or even the third offer. Instead they got us.
And yet I’m sure we’re still overpaying. Ah well, the wife is happy, we put 25% down, have another 25% in reserve, and can afford the payments, so we won’t foreclosed on unless the Bay Area does a Detroit.
S&P 500 = 1000 or bust.
The little engine that couldn’t:
I sink, I can, I sink, I can…
Hillary Karmer was on Nightly Business Report last evening. She’s been anticipating a “capitulation” for over a year, and she thinks it’s close. She’s looking for a a 20% drop in the market this fall, and expect S&P 500 to drop to 800. That’s when she will go back in.
How does she know the adjustment won’t go into gold and the dollar this time, while stocks hold their ground or rise? (Today’s price movements provide a nice indication of how this might move forward from here…)
And once again, the previous week’s data had been revised up - which of course allowed for the 4k drop to appear. Still way north of 500k and going into 4Q fast.
AZ Slim -
I checked out the link you posted yesterday. I hope your mom doesn’t put too much trust in that lady:
Born in Ireland, she came to the US with a degree in Nursing. The skilled care required for that field gave her a unique edge in real estate, where taking care of her clients is at the center of every real estate transaction. One of 10 children herself and the mother of 4, Ms X knows how organization, information and teamwork makes any process a smooth one.
Translation:
“She came to the US with skills that could actually improve an individual’s quality of life at a time of need. But after scoping out the situation, she realized that bedpans were smelly, wound dressings icky, and not as profitable as fleecing the sheeple. Stationed in rooms of granite and Brazilian cherry, delighting in the unmistakable aroma of the sleazy MB’s Hugo Boss cologne, Ms. X plans on keeping you in homedebtorship next.”
That’s what I suspected. Thanks, X-philly.
BTW, next time I go back east, let’s get together. I owe you one.
From Phoenix
The first home in Arizona to get the “Extreme Makeover: Home Edition” treatment is for sale, the family blessed with the two-story mansion saying it is looking to escape the crushing bills that came with the house.
The extreme-home asking price: $1.3 million. The Gilbert house, on Redfield Road, has six bedrooms and six bathrooms.
The home was built as a surprise gift to Kassandra Okvath, then 9, who had written to the popular ABC show, asking it to remodel the children’s rooms at a cancer ward at the University Medical Center in Tucson.
Kassandra had been a patient there.
Producers were touched by her letter and granted her wish, sending Kassandra and a crew of Walt Disney Studios animators to the hospital.
While the family was gone, crews leveled the Okvaths’ ranch-style home and replaced it with one that encompassed 5,300 square feet and included a movie theater and a backyard carousel.
Thousands of Arizonans turned out to watch the unveiling of the house on a rain-soaked day in February 2005.
Millions of viewers nationwide watched the March 2005 broadcast.
Bryan Okvath, Kassandra’s father, said the family was happy to get the home on the market.
It was listed Aug. 19 with Keller Williams Realty.
“It took us a bit just to get it cleaned up,” he said. “That was a big challenge.”
People who come to visit the home will “have to understand it’s a lived-in house.”
He and his wife, Nichol, who have added a seventh child, had those extra small hands to help clean up.
“But they’re (also) usually tearing everything up behind us,” he said.
Since moving in, the Okvaths faced soaring utility, landscaping and general-maintenance bills for which they were unprepared.
The Okvaths took out a $405,000 loan on the home in 2006. It was an adjustable-rate mortgage, and the Okvaths struggled to make the payments.
They almost lost the home to foreclosure in 2008.
The home was first on the market in 2007, for $1.8 million, and still didn’t sell when the price was reduced to $1.5 million.
Bryan Okvath, who most recently worked as a long-haul trucker, has suffered back problems and is unemployed. Nichol is planning to enroll in culinary school.
Bryan said the family most likely will rent a home in the Phoenix area after the home sells. He expressed confidence that the home would fetch the $1.3 million price.
The home’s Realtor called the price “optimistic.” Tony Moore said most million-dollar homes in Gilbert are in gated communities. The Okvath home is on an acre lot in an area zoned for horse property, he said.
“The challenge is you have to find that right buyer who likes the farmlike surroundings,” Moore said.
He and his wife, Nichol, who have added a seventh child, had those extra small hands to help clean up.
…
Bryan Okvath, who most recently worked as a long-haul trucker, has suffered back problems and is unemployed. Nichol is planning to enroll in culinary school.
Clearly this medieval’s back isn’t too badly hurt and I am betting he doesn’t stop at 7. An ex trucker and an unemployed mom (with 7 kids to take care of) in a 1.3M home… am I in wonderland?
In the future I’d like to see a show hosted by Ed Feldman & Joe called “Modest Makeovers that won’t put you out in the street”
( Or something like that ) How many more homeless people can Ty Pennington create!?
Modest Makeovers…I believe that’s called This Old House, and PBS got to it years ago.
However, even PBS got too big for its britches when they built a new house from scratch which easily cost a million bucks. It was so outrageous (and butt-ugly) that PBS got complaints.
Their new project is a modest renovation where the owners will make some sacrifices, and will actually quote some prices. Sign of the times.
oxide,
Too funny! How easy it was to lose track of, I mean with all the Pergraniteel and stray rounds flying around?
I recall one episode where a couple was spending more on a BARN rennovation than I would ever spend on a HOUSE! They were in there for months. But you’re right, they totally abandoned their original model in favor of high end BS.
Pergraniteel
dinor, you should copyright that tag!
Pergraniteel
Stainless Pergraniteel
Pergraniteel © 2009 DinOR
There ya go!
Was the “barn” episode within the past 2-3 years? That “barn” was the new butt-ugly house. With the funny cupola and the industrial signage inside? One commenter said it wasn’t a new home; it was a Lone Star Steakhouse. Just throw peanuts on the floor.
The “teel” in pergraniteel stands for stainless steel.
The term was invented over at Patrick’s blog.
Pergo (flooring)
Granite (countertops)
(Stainless) Steel (appliances)
Concatenate them to “Pergraniteel”.
Yeah, people salivate over huge square footages, but don’t account for the cleaning and the maintenance and the propensity to start collecting crap like hamsters. When i hear people gloating about their 3,000+ sf Barbie “Dream House”, I wonder, why, why? I guess if you have a passle of kids or want to be the roadhouse for all your visiting friends and family that come through town and want a free place to stay then it’s a good thing.
Nitpick,
Having a large habitrail helped my brother when his inlaws ‘visited’ for a year.
But otherwise, you end up with rooms for junk…
Got Popcorn?
Neil
An 890 sq ft house holds more stuff than I want. I’m clearing out, but it’s slow going. I don’t want to leave my kids the mess my fil left his. I’m still using towels they ought 30 years ago.
ought=bought
My keyboard is a little flakey butI’m too cheap to replace it
I’m clearing out, but it’s slow going.
Yeah? You having a good yard-sale one of these days?! Tell me all about it.
Uh-oh. Good yard sales. One of my major weaknesses.
Uh-oh. Good yard sales. One of my major weaknesses.
And how can this be? You ‘don’t like stuff’, right?
Me, neither. Unless, of course, it’s really great stuff.
How can you tell if a yard/garage sale is Good?
I know that Estate sales(indoors) are usually good but more expensive. I don’t like getting up so darn early to beat the dealers who are there before the cock starts crowing.
that’s my wolfgirl.
Took me a while to get there, but I gotcha!
We’ve got 963 squares in a 1918 Craftsman (with included additions and enclosures). Perfect match for the two of us!
The Okvaths took out a $405,000 loan on the home in 2006.
And why did this guy need $405??? Yeeeeow! Or maybe that was just to pay the income taxes on the house they received. (Does the show pay taxes for them or not?) If they didn’t pull that just for taxes, that family has an unbelievably massive lack of financial discipline.
Oh and…. would YOU buy a house that was slapped together as fast as that one was? As if normal construction isn’t bad enough these days, I can hardly imagine the corners that were cut and things that were wallboarded-over in that one? Sure, they might get the best local firms to do it, but no way would I want to buy a house that was built under Extreme Makeover’s rushed schedule.
Did anyone else happen to see this latest commercial? I’ve only seen it run once but it was pretty brazen ( I thought? )
Man in white shirt, conservative slacks and tie sitting utterly despondent at the end of his bed. Voice over says “Do you feel powerless due to the recklessness of others? Do you feel like you’ve been cut adrift? ( Or words to that effect )
Man looks up into mirror in master bedroom and sees his own image in the mirror as some sort of Superhero and… it’s a commercial for ( of all things ) LendingTree!?
Like you’ve got to be kidding right? Was it not these very people that advocated serial-re-fi’ing and MEW-pillage? How in God’s creation could they -possibly- be part of your FB “solution”? Anyone seen that one? Just curious.
Yeah, because nothing’s more enpowering than taking on more debt.
edgewaterjohn,
Right! ( Or juggling it or plate spinning it or..? )
I’ll see if I can find a youtube link or whatever but I definitely think it’s their “Suzzanne researched this” moment. What I can’t figure out ( with all the “loan mod” offerings and gubmint programs… ) why would anyone elect to go with some sort of “legitimate” re-fi?
Is anyone still doing that? Are there -still- borrowers out there tapping into equity etc? Just curious.
Couldn’t find the ‘exact’ one but evidently it’s a series, this one w/ voice-over by Adam West and he uses the term “diabolical” no less!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qTt6Fqrj-8A
“With all new “financial tools” “. So it’s coming at you w/ graphics remarkably remniscent of ETrade’s commercial approach. Definitely NOW playing to FB’s “Victim Status”. Whatever happened to the cackling couple “interviewing” desperate bankers from their kitchen?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OlGIVt8BqUo
To the curious ones - here’s the youtube commercial.
Leigh
P.S. First time I have seen it - tivo - so we do not have to endure commercials!
no tv=no commercials
It saddens me that Adam West lent his voice to that tomfoolery.
sfbb,
Me too ( although it does show I only “live 4 blocks from yesteryear” ) ?
The commercial seems to be playing to still employed FB’s that for whatever reason just can’t seem to qualify for one of those gubmint Loan Modification Programs ( stupid JOB! )
So now they’re trolling the airwaves for depressed and defeated FB’s to exploit for one-last-round of “Re-fi Madness”. I don’t get it, they’re clutching at straws here.
( Thanks Leigh )
I also can’t fathom the message there. “The big banks have messed everything up. Fight back by giving them your money!” Say whaaaaat?
The people who need it the most are no longer able to substitute credit for income to invest and consume. As a result, speculative asset prices fall. What’s more, these people will be forced to save to consume and invest. As they begin to save, however, asset prices fall further and it makes sense to postpone investment and consumption.
We’ve been through an extraordinary credit expansion that topped out with zero down and negative equity loans on houses, zero financing rates on cars, zero percent credit card balance transfers. Apart from areas of massive government intervention, that has all changed. Big Brother is going to be around for a while and he’ll probable get bigger before this is all over.
test
You fail on username alone.
You fail on username alone.
Har!
I have been abducted by aliens, says Japan’s first lady
(Oh, and she also knew Tom Cruise in a previous life)
By Peter Popham Thursday, 3 September 2009
Miyuki Hatoyama, wife of Japan’s Prime Minister-elect, Yukio Hatoyama, is a lifestyle guru, a macrobiotics enthusiast, an author of cookery books, a retired actress, a divorcee, and a fearless clothes horse for garments of her own creation, including a skirt made from Hawaiian coffee sacks. But there is more, much more. She has travelled to the planet Venus. And she was once abducted by aliens.
The 62-year-old also knew Tom Cruise in a former incarnation – when he was Japanese – and is now looking forward to making a Hollywood movie with him. “I believe he’d get it if I said to him, ‘Long time no see’, when we meet,” she said in a recent interview. But it is her claim in a book entitled “Very Strange Things I’ve Encountered” that she was abducted by aliens while she slept one night 20 years ago, that has suddenly drawn attention following last Sunday’s poll.
Related articles
“While my body was asleep, I think my soul rode on a triangular-shaped UFO and went to Venus,” she explains in the tome she published last year. “It was a very beautiful place, and it was very green.”
“While my body was asleep, I think my soul rode on a triangular-shaped UFO and went to Venus,” she explains in the tome she published last year. “It was a very beautiful place, and it was very green.”
Pooey! I’m sure she didn’t go to Venus. That would take too long. She probably only visited us here in Washington and hung out astrally in the Hoh rain-forest. Was there a Bigfoot handy? That would cinch it.
*shakes head sadly at the craziness of some silly people *
And in return for the delightful article, wmbzy, I dispense unto thee:
http://tinyurl.com/lwdpgg
“People of Walmart Blog goes viral”
There’s a guy enjoying a can of beer outside a Wal-Mart, a guy dressed as Captain America and another guy with a goat. Yes, a live goat.
Andrew and his brother Adam, 25, said they thought of the site after a visit to a South Carolina Wal-Mart where they saw a woman they believed to be a stripper, wearing an obscene T-shirt and leading a toddler in a harness. Around the next corner was a man with a beard reminiscent of the rock band ZZ Top.
Although what’s wrong with bringing your goat to the store? They probably could provide some good shopping advice.
Good one! There is absolutely nothing wrong with shopping with ones goat. However when I am shopping up-scale at Wally World, I usually leave Bucky in the truck. Now Bucky and me are regulars over at the Dollar Palace.
But wait there’s more….
Angry Man Slaps Child in WalMart.
Published on 03 September 2009 by Lydia in Security News
Angry Man Slaps Child in WalMartThere is always something crazy happening at Walmart and yesterday was no exception when Atlanta resident Roger Stephens, 61, decided to make an afternoon visit to the store.
When Stephens heard a 2-year-old crying loudly in the store, he reportedly approached the mother and stated, “If you don’t shut the baby up, I will shut her up for you.” The mother claims that Stephens grabbed the baby and slapped her four times until she was quiet at which point he stated, “See I told you I would shut her up.”
Stephens was then arrested and charged with first-degree cruelty to children. Parents nationwide are outraged at the flagrant display of abuse on an afternoon shopping trip.
The mother claims that Stephens grabbed the baby and slapped her four times until she was quiet
Awesome.
TJ’s some man kept parking his cart in middle of entrance to aisle. I asked politely to pass, no answer, asked again, no ans. Asked Please and Louder. The woman w/man gave me the roll eye and said why don’t you go around- I’m thinking where, between and through your legs and under the cart?
Although this man “slapping kid” might be wrong, who knows what is the other side of the story.I notice this alot with senior citizens and folks who don’t live here. They walk into store, and stand in the middle of the entrance. Same with escalators.
Just Stop. And get offended when you say ‘excuse me’.
Apparently the threat and the slapping occurred in different aisles which means that the 61 year old a-hole could have easily avoided any sort of confrontation with the two year old.
Yep, I get that. Wallyworld is HUGE. I too would have gone far faraway.
Or just leave and come back later, although parking sucks big time at wally world.
MY GAWD how many handicapped spots does one store have to have for petesake?
It had so many visits it EXPLODED 1 hr after it was aired.
I tried too!
My across the street neighbors (you know, the ones who live in the House Formerly Occupied by Princess) have a goat. I like it much better than their barking dogs.
What does this goat look like? Maybe I know this goat. Does it sound like this:
*makes an exciting blatting sound, much like a fog-horn on meth *
…was it like that?
Maybe she landed smack dab in the middle of a Rainbow Gathering?
Venus would have looked tame by comparison.
Oly, me an’ alph were pickin’ on you up yonder!
Oly, me an’ alph were pickin’ on you up yonder!
Yes, I noticed. And I thought about placing you both on my
“Kill Them When I Get The Chance*” list, but then I thought, ‘Naw. They’s just high-spirited boys, so let’s relax and let them live’.
*It’s getting to be a really long list. Should I be worried? Hmmm…
I hope the list isn’t alpha-betical!
That is why we love you Oly.
I hope the list isn’t alpha-betical!
Har, that’s funny!
Naw, naw…I find that I’m often too relaxed and busy hanging upside down and growing moss in handy trees when it comes to killing time.
*Sigh *
Procrastination and sporadic inattentiveness….these are failings of mine, along with gluttony and that other vice; I forget which it is, but I’m sure I’ve got that one, too.
:] Stupid smiley face ain’t working right. We’ll see.
See I told ya, Oly. Let’s try again.
lust? wrath? lustful wrath?
“It was a very beautiful place, and it was very green.”
NASA must have the airbrushers working overtime.
The 62-year-old also knew Tom Cruise in a former incarnation – when he was Japanese
Is she sure she’s not just thinking about “The Last Samurai”?
Reality is nothing but a blur for some.
Well, I wish it was a blur for ME. I am distressingly sober on this pretty autumnal afternoon.
*grumble *
I am distressingly sober on this pretty autumnal afternoon.
Autumnal??? Good lord, girl, it’s going to be 104 today!
But yes, I too am wallowing in a pit of soriety - at least for the next couple of hours.
Soriety, hic!, sobriety
Good lord, girl, it’s going to be 104 today!
Not where I live, Mr. “I-Live-In-The-Wrong-Place-For-Human-Beings-To-Try-To-Exist”.
Where IIIII live the blackberries are falling right off the bramble, there are so many.
Ditto on the ‘hic’.
LOL
last samurai and she was the princess maiden.
Oops, that is a private game.LOL snort
Abercrombie & Fitch (NYSE: ANF) announced on Thursday that its same-store sales plummeted 29% in August. These results were worse than the expected drop of 23.9%.
Sales in all of its divisions were worse than expected, with sales at the Abercrombie & Fitch flagship store plunging 26%. Sales dropped 32% at Hollister, 37% at Ruehl (which will close at the year’s end), and 26% at the company’s children’s retail outlet.
ANF is also going to face quite a hurdle with the holiday shopping season approaching. Will parents be willing to drop $85 for a sweater, or nearly $100 for a pair of jeans for their kids? Some will , but I’m guessing that many won’t. The same thing with the back-to-school shopping season — how many parents are willing to pay $35 for a t-shirt because it says Hollister? Again, some will, but I bet many won’t. Will the stock be able to withstand further same-store sales disappointments? We could soon find out.
Amen,wmbz. ANF and all those trendy over priced kid & teen stores need to go out of biz. What a waste of money.
I use to buy JNY and other name brand career clothing, until they started being made overseas. Sorry, I vote with my money.
Looks like selling thongs to six-year-olds wasn’t such a great business model after all.
Gosh Kim, I hope that was thong and cheek.
LOL awaiting..good one!
ouch.
People who don’t like SF police chief Heather Fong call her “leather thong”.
And she loved every minute of it…
reminds me of the time we went to see friend’s BF play out. It was a little place tucked down an alley way, called The Bike Stop. Unbeknownst to us, it was a leather bar for teh gay of both sexes.
Saw some nice outfits that nite.
“Unbeknownst to us…
Yeah, yeah—whatever.
When he was taking the bar exam in SF, my friend told me to come up and we’d go have dinner. He picked a place out of a tour book called the “Neon Chicken”. It had great reviews for its food. Turns out it was a male gay leather bar and restaurant.
The waiter tried to pick me up. Too bad he wasn’t my type.
Really great cream of broccoli soup IIRC.
I think this guy can get his own TARP
No thumbprint, no money, bank tells armless man
MIAMI (Reuters) – A bank in Florida refused to cash a check for an armless man because he could not provide a thumbprint.
“They looked at my prosthetic hands and the teller said, ‘Well, obviously you can’t give us a thumbprint’,” Steve Valdez told CNN on Wednesday.
But he said the Bank of America Corp branch in downtown Tampa, Florida, still insisted on a thumbprint identification for him to cash a check drawn on his wife’s account at the bank, even though he showed them two photo IDs.
In the incident last week, a bank supervisor told Valdez he could only cash the check without a thumbprint if he brought his wife in with him or he opened an account with them.
“I told them I neither wanted an account with them and couldn’t bring my wife in because she was nowhere close by,” Valdez told CNN.
Bank of America said in a statement cited by CNN: “While the thumbprint is a requirement for those who don’t have accounts, the bank should have made accommodations.”
Valdez said his treatment by the bank violated the U.S. Americans with Disability Act requiring institutions to provide reasonable accommodation to disabled persons.
(Writing by Pascal Fletcher; editing by Todd Eastham)
..she was nowhere close by..
cops should check his house for blood stains and bring dogs..see if she’s buried in the backyard…maybe drag the canal..
see if she’s buried in the backyard.
But how’s he gonna bury her? He’s got no arms, after all. The canal, though, yeah, I can see that.
prosthetic hands .. might be able to run a backhoe..
i been watching Hercule Poirot episodes on YouTube lately and now see the evil potential in everyone.
You guys totally kill me sometimes.
Fargo. wood chipper. Thus accidental disarming.
canal accident he said off handedly.
On the one hand, it could happen.
he could count on the finger
how many times it happened.
Twist my arm and I give you a hand.
“He claimed he had no hand in her disappearance.”
“Cuff him, boys! The handsome one.”
disarmingly handsome one
Enough! I suggest we amputate this thread.
Is a hand in the bush worth two on the bird?
But how’s he gonna bury her? He’s got no arms,
Military arms
Petrochemical arms
He’s gonna hafta dig her up, cut her hand off, dress as a woman wearing long sleeves, and go to the bank holding her hand like it’s his, with his arm scrunched up in his sleeve, and use that for the thumbprint. Or send the hand in through the drive-thru tube.
hold on, he doesn’t have any arms! let me rethink…he could carry it in his mouth?
velcro…
…he could carry it in his mouth?
Naw, because that seems germy and also how could he chew strawberry Bubblicious gum (my favorite) and sing along to the radio?
It might be best to dangle it on one of those charming little beaded chains, next to his bifocals. Of course, this’d have to be as long as the hand’s not too heavy, because if it’s too heavy it’ll ruin the drape of his pretty dress.
Also, we haven’t addressed the leakage issue.
Leakage? He’s a man, baby! (Send out the thumbprint thingy through the drive-thru tube, use her hand in his car. Wear a burka so they don’t ask/want him to come in, and they’ll think he’s a woman. I guess he drives by using his mouth on a spinner knob.)
Wear a burka …and they’ll think he’s a woman. I guess he drives by using his mouth on a spinner knob.
Jeeze, I’m beginning to be in love, here…
Look! Your presentation is quite compelling, as always, but where, oh where, does the strawberry-flavored Bubblelicious gum come into the picture? Wadded up outside the spinner wheel? Stuck to a burka like a gluey pink broach?
Oh, wait, maybe…yes?…Nah, that can’t be…
Gum! Where be my strawberry gum?!
Bank of America said in a statement cited by CNN: “While the thumbprint is a requirement for those who don’t have accounts, the bank should have made accommodations.”
Firebomb any bank that refuses to cash a check from one of its customers without you surrendering some sort of biometric info.
Or, come back at 3AM and SuperGlue™ the locks.
I was just watching The View and folding clothes (mommy’s work is never done) - and this “expert” from Smart Money magazine is on. He’s showing pictures of homes that at the top of the market were worth X and are now worth X - 50% (or more). Yawn.
But then he tells the “ladies” that he believes that prices won’t rise until inventory is cleared out (so far, so good). And that might be NEXT YEAR???? I mean, pardon me for stating the obvious - but I really am confused: he knows (he has to, right?) that all the option ARM mortgages are resetting which presumably will set off another wave of foreclosures, that there is a shadow inventory of homes sitting out in the netherworlds, and that as long as unemployment is hovering over 10% more prime borrowers are going to default. But yet next year is when everything is allllllll cleared out? Heh?
WHY (and this is where I need help seeing this) are “experts” who have countless resources and information at their fingertips - why do they keep saying that everything is going to be peachy keen next year? What do they have to gain by saying that? I get why a realtor would say that, but an economic “expert”? Enlighten me, sage HBB’ers.
LOL. You watch “the view”
It looks like the President is back pedaling on the “Obama Youth” speach for the schools next week. Is there any corner of total government that hasn’t been explored yet?
But the White House website is still promoting it. See:
http://www.whitehouse.gov/mediaresources/
Hmmm, nobody wants to buy books about Madoff and the honey jar. Imagine that!
THE ASSOCIATED PRESS NEW YORK - Sex and scandal have not been enough to make major sellers out of books about Bernard Madoff.
According to Nielsen BookScan, neither a much-discussed tell-all by alleged ex-mistress Sheryl Weinstein nor a recent wave of biographies about the imprisoned financier have caught on with the public.
Weinstein’s “Madoff’s Other Secret,” a tabloid favourite published last month by St. Martin’s Press, has sold just 2,000 copies. As of Wednesday night, it ranked No. 3,506 on Amazon.com.
Jerry Oppenheimer’s “Madoff With the Money” has sold 1,000 copies. Gerard and Deborah Strober’s “Catastrophe” and Andrew Kirtzman’s “Betrayal” each sold 3,000. Erin Arvedlund’s “Too Good To Be True” has been slightly more successful, selling 5,000 copies.
Nielsen BookScan tracks about 70 per cent to 75 per cent of the market.
Publishers had been so anxious to release Madoff books that the publication dates for “Madoff With the Money,” “Betrayal” and “Too Good To Be True” were moved up from the fall to August.”
None of the Madoff works were in the top 2,000 Wednesday night on Amazon.
The only thing I want to read about these cretins are news stories showing that they’re being suitably punished.
Same with me.
I certainly don’t want to read the pillow-talking notes of someone named “Sheryl Weinstein”. Just the very name makes me think about support hose and beige polyester girdles and talcum powder. Add to that the image of Madoff with his clothes off…?
*tries not to barf copiously all over splintery wooden desk *
“The View”- brain goo. Turn that off, SouthFL. I saw that show for 5 minutes, while waiting for my doctor appt, and was glad I tossed out the TV 15 years ago.
Spend the time here. You’ll be better off for it.
Money Driven Health Care - no politics-objective
http://www.pbs.org/moyers/journal/08282009/profile.html
Good show. I watched it on the PBS site ‘tother day.
And, quite frankly, I tend to stay away from doctors because too many times, I got the sense that they were more interested in increasing their income rather than improving my health.
I’ve had the same experience with dentists. Alluded to that on yesterday’s oh-so-crunchy-tasty Bucket thread on dental X-rays.
Interestingly enough, I’ve found that when I’ve said that I can’t afford what the doctors and dentists are so insistent on doing, it suddenly becomes unnecessary.
Arizona Slim
Bill Moyer (Moyers Journal-PBS) has done a great objective analysis on the health care issue.
It was so sad that someone in my town (Thousand Oaks, Ca) bit off the finger of an opossing protester, during a rally/protest last night on health care reform. The vicitim walked to the local hospital, where it was reattached. They are looking for the guy who did it.
btw, this is a pretty affluent town.
The vicitim walked to the local hospital, where it was reattached.
How much did it cost them? Because that could be a good example of health care issues, right there. Or else they shouldn’t have got it reattached, and then they could have hung it on a necklace and then at future town meetings stood up and shouted irately and whipped it out and brandished it around to make a point. Man, I know I’D sure pay attention to that sort of visual aid.
The opposing protestor is on Medicare.
The opposing protestor is on Medicare.
Oh. Well, then. I guess if you’re on Medicare you can run on out and chew off someone’s fingers anytime you feel like it? Is that the message I’m supposed to glean from this episode?
The one guy threw a punch and it landed in the other guys mouth, thus the reaction of chomping down if someone/thing is flying into your mouth.
Note to self; don’t throw punches.
This turd swims around the bottom of the cesspool…
Rangel-ing: Charlie Pays ‘Angels’ In Ethics Probe
Harlem Congressman Gave Campaign Contributions To 3 Dems On Ethics Committee Charged With Investigating Him
NEW YORK (CBS) ―
CBS 2 HD has learned of more alleged back-door dealings and political power peddling by Democratic Rep. Charles Rangel.
The reigning member of Congress’ top tax committee is apparently “wrangling” other politicos to get him out of his own financial and tax troubles.
Here’s a look at Charlie’s so-called “angels” involved in his ethics investigation.
Congressman Rangel has been arrogant in refusing to discuss how, as the man who writes this country’s tax laws, he failed to report over $1 million in outside income and $3 million in business transactions as required by the House, lapses under investigation by the House Ethics Committee.
“I recognize that all of you have an obligation to ask questions knowing that there’s none of you smart enough to frame it in such a way that I’m going to respond,” Rangel said.
There may be a reason for Rangel’s arrogance. CBS 2 HD has discovered that since ethics probes began last year the 79-year-old congressman has given campaign donations to 119 members of Congress, including three of the five Democrats on the House Ethics Committee who are charged with investigating him.
Charlie’s “angels” on the committee include Congressmen Ben Chandler of Kentucky, G.K. Butterfield of North Carolina and Peter Welch of Vermont. All have received donations from Rangel.
Only Welch sees something wrong with being financial beholden to Charlie.
“In an abundance of caution, he has returned all campaign contributions from Mr. Rangel,” said spokesman Bob Rogan, Welch’s Chief of Staff.
It amounted to nearly 20 grand.
The United States of America: A 3rd world country with a gigantic military and a populace only too willing to use it. Campaign finance reform is far and away the most pressing issue in this country.
…and how much did Rangel pay you, Jon?
Nothing, because I don’t have a vote.
NO, here is the problem and it ramped up when reagan was potus.
It is a republican problem and a liberal problem.
reagans/reps want small gov.
Liberals want less military spending.
So, reps say they make smaller gov and Outsource mil jobs ie; guarding the compounds/embassies/making the mess.
Thus the need for less military.
However the mil doesn’t have the capability to govern/oversee Outsourced corps/sub contractors etc. get nutty and skroo the taxpayer over for overcharging enormous $$$.But no one to really oversee and correct/punish. The Outsourced contractor changes names of corp and it is hard to find them. BlackWater now X.
I didn’t get it all in there, but you get the drift.
It is both groups ideals and corporations that are troublesome.
How’s this from today’s Washington Post:
THE TOUGHEST TICKET IN TOWN Suing the Fans
For Redskins Fans, Hard Luck Runs Into Team’s Hard Line
“Since 1962, Pat Hill has been a Redskins fan. She still is even though they sued her and won when she couldn’t make payments on a 10-yr contract for Redskins season tickets. She’s a 73-year-old realtor and making $400 a month in social security after the housing crash. Hill on her couch, among a small sampling of her memorabilia, uses tissues to wipe the tears while she recalls the lawsuit. She’s hoping Dan Snyder will listen to her story and her willingness to pay when the recession has passed.
The sales office declined.
On Oct. 8, the Redskins sued Hill in Prince George’s County Circuit Court for backing out of a 10-year ticket-renewal agreement after the first year. The team sought payment for every season through 2017, plus interest, attorneys’ fees and court costs.
Hill couldn’t afford a lawyer. She did not fight the lawsuit or even respond to it because, she said, she believes that the Bible says that it is morally wrong not to pay your debts. The team won a default judgment of $66,364.”
……
A little later in the same article we have this gem:
“Many of the sued fans who were interviewed by The Post said that when they requested relief, they were offered settlements that required them to make hefty payments over time.
Among those sued are mortgage brokers, real estate developers, government workers, plumbers, construction contractors, lobbyists, lawyers and several car salesmen.”
I am not sure if I feel sorry for the mortgage brokers, real estate developers,..lawyers, car salesmen and the like. Oh well! I wonder if other NFL teams sue as well.
Hill couldn’t afford a lawyer. She did not fight the lawsuit or even respond to it because, she said, she believes that the Bible says that it is morally wrong not to pay your debts. The team won a default judgment of $66,364.”
OK - so the Bible says it’s OK to not pay your debts, as long as you don’t admit that you’re not paying them?
O….K…..
I think someone needs to attend some more sunday school.
She didn’t fight the lawsuit because, as a Christian, she follows the teachings found in the Bible and the Bible says, “Repay your debts.” At least that’s what I got out of the text you quoted.
I took the “didn’t respond to it” to mean she ignored it, but what you said makes more sense - guess she paid the damages. Though in this case the bulk if it sounds like they weren’t debts but rather contracts for future payments.
When I was in DC in the early 90’s, the waiting list for Redskins season tickets was so long one might not live long enough to be in a position to purchase season tickets. The only way to see a Redskins home game was to have connections with an existing season ticket owner, quite the closed club for the well-connected.
Unless they raised ticket prices so high with the new stadium as to destroy the considerable excess demand, I’d wonder why that season ticket holder couldn’t find someone else to assume the rest of the contract unless such transfer was prohibited by the contract.
More than once a relative has told me that Daniel Snyder, the Redskins owner, is a real shark. I would not be surprised if re-selling the tickets, or rights to them, is not permitted.
Mr. Snyder has a difficult time producing winning teams, but he makes his money. The legacy of past Super Bowls has ensured a very loyal fan base throughout metro DC. He has a gargantuan stadium with all kinds of revenue streams.
Just saw a report today on Bloomberg on NFL team values:
1) Cowboys $1.65 B
2) Redskins $1.55 B
3) Patriots $1.36 B
Giants and Jets were essentially tied for 4th… and the most valuable sports franchise in the world is Manchester United (Cowboys second; I wonder how the taxpayers who financed their new stadium feel about that…).
I believe you can only transfer the tickets to immediate family members.
It sucks, let me tell you. Every time I drive around look at that monstrosity of a stadium I hit another freakin’ pot hole.
The city infrastructure is in very poor shape, but hey, at least Jerry Jones $40/car parking lot is great shape!
And yet Man U still plays in Old Trafford. The idea of tearing it down and replacing it with a new stadium would be anathema, to say the least.
‘Tax collectors trolling Facebook’
http://tinyurl.com/kmwvg2
In Minnesota, authorities were able to levy back taxes on the wages of a long-sought tax evader after he announced on MySpace that he would be returning to his hometown to work as a real-estate broker and gave his employer’s name. The state collected several thousand dollars, the full amount due.
Hahahahaah! That’s funny!
In California, which has recently been so strapped for revenue it has had to pay some bills with IOUs, agents are also using social Web sites. When one delinquent was identified as a rigger of sails, a curious collection agent searched his name and the term online and found a discussion board used by local riggers. In one thread someone asked where the rigger was because his store had closed, and a reply was posted, “Oh, he moved across the bay.” The agent found the man and collected a four-figure sum.
Hey! THAT’S not funny! Why can’t they stick with real-estate brokers and leave hard-working regular sail-riggers alone!
hard to believe the IRS monitors MySpace.. probably some disgruntled ex turned him in..
Collection agents are different.. more like bounty hunters.. they will turn over rocks during slack time..
.. they will turn over rocks during slack time..
Like ant-eaters!
Actually, I do that, too. I like to see what turns up.
OT!
Hey, DinOR… A note from a friend of mine that works for our power company buying NG.
Natural Gas Outlook Uncertain as Supply/Demand Balances Vary
Pipeline & Gas Journal (08/09) Freedenthal, Carol
The 1999 Natural Petroleum Council (NPC) Report forecasted natural gas use would move from 22 Tcf to 29 Tcf per year by 2010. However, predicted consumption by the Energy Information Administration (EIA) for 2009 will be 22.7 Tcf, a much lower amount than was originally expected. Natural gas works well as a fuel because it is clean; in large quantities it is simply carbon and hydrogen giving off combustion products. It is also the easiest fuel to make and clean up and it is relatively inexpensive. The supply is large, especially because of new shale deposits. There are a couple reasons why there will be no 30 Tcf by 2010, even though it has many benefits. For one, electric generation did not grow for gas as much as expected. Second, the volatility of gas prices and the economic downturn decreased demand. Major factors to consider for the future are legislative, which includes environmental, and regulatory, as well as how the economy performs. Pricing is not included, but is the result of the other two factors. Pricing is in the $3-4/MMBtu range because of the abundant supply of gas. The price will most likely stay in this range and may move up to the $5-plus range in 2010. There is no shortage of supply because of the increased production in the United States, high storage levels and increased LNG imports. Simply, if the economy improves, the demand will increase and prices will rise. The legislative and environmental considerations are fairly unknown at this point. Environmentalists are against natural gas because of the potential environmental problems from gas creation. The House of Representatives passed a cap-and-trade bill that could help natural gas because gas could partially replace coal. Natural gas has a good outlook, especially as the economy improves
wmbz,
I didn’t realize there ‘was’ a thread to deviate ‘from’ but a little birdie told me it is in such a state of being over-sold that even a “chilly” Fall in the upper MW and NE could create demand beyond what’s predicted?
Just heating your home from… say 55 deg. to a comfortable 70-72 can create unexpected demand. So in ‘his’ estimation, we needn’t have a brutal “Day After Tomorrow” winter there to stir things up? Just something to think about. IMHO.
the volatility of gas prices
haha.
From ADWEEK:
Homeowners Still Downbeat About House Prices
Sept 3, 2009
- Mark Dolliver
With house prices actually heading upwards in many markets — though still far below their levels before the housing bubble burst — you’d expect consumers to start feeling more upbeat about the value of what’s typically their greatest asset. But they aren’t, to judge by the findings of a Rasmussen Reports poll conducted late last month.
A mere 19 percent of the homeowners surveyed said they expect the value of their own domicile to rise in the next year, while 27 percent think it will decline. Fifty percent expect their home’s value to stay as is, with the other 4 percent unsure.
While the numbers were markedly more upbeat when respondents were asked how they think their home’s value will change (if at all) over the next five years, just 50 percent said they think its value will rise — a pretty lackluster number when you consider that the price of just about anything tends to rise over such a stretch of time. Thirteen percent said they expect their home’s value to decline during the next five years, and 29 percent think it will remain the same, with the rest unsure.
If home values don’t rise, they’re going to leave a lot of people “underwater.” Thirty percent of the homeowners surveyed answered “no” when asked whether their home is now worth more than what they owe on its mortgage. Another 15 percent weren’t sure. That dovetails with another of the findings: Sixty-seven percent of the poll’s homeowners think this is not “a good time for someone in your area to be selling a house.”
A majority of respondents (59 percent) subscribed to the oft-stated opinion that “buying a home is the best investment most families can make.” But that’s down 7 percentage points from the number of respondents expressing this view in a similar poll last September.
And, of course, one might ask, “Best compared to what?” Considering the way the stock market has performed since its peak, for example, it wouldn’t take much for housing to look like a better long-term investment than equities.
“A mere 19 percent of the homeowners surveyed said they expect the value of their own domicile to rise in the next year, while 27 percent think it will decline. Fifty percent expect their home’s value to stay as is, with the other 4 percent unsure.”
With 77 percent thinking home prices are going to stay flat or lower by next year, there is little reason to not delay a purchase until then to find out if they are correct.
The twist is that if most people grasp the logic of the preceding paragraph, the chances increase that the 27 percent predicting price declines will prove correct.
With the news about the plant closing, layoffs, and the number of folks on unemployment how can anyone say that there is a recovery looming in the near future? I see no news of hiring and the job fairs are just scary with the number of people showing up. Wal Mart hires about 400 people and 8.000 show up to apply. Does any of this sound like a recovery or good times returning?
Since all things are connected until the impetus is upward instead of downward we will NEVER Have a return to the good old days. If there were ever any real good old days in existence. No major employers out there so unless we return to the days of medieval battles where you could wipe out thousands in a day we won’t have any relief of this unemployment pressure. Of course, we could go all WW1 and get rid of generations at a time. Is this the ultimate plan? Lots of noise and rattles but nothing show us a path to better times.
Home buying for individuals no matter what their situation is a risky business. Most that are buying now are hoping the situation doesn’t change drastically before they pay off that piece of heaven they bought. But seriously nothing in the recent past shows stability in the economy, government, employment, or industrial development improving. Sure green jobs will hire a few, but if people don’t have the income to embrace the “New Technology” then where will it end? Our situation is complicated and band aid solutions don’t even last a week.
I think our future is not as bright as some would speculate, but let’s all just watch and see which way this train heads. I figure off the cliff, but I may be wrong too.
Again, I have seen gold do everything. But it is lapping at a 1000 again.
I’ve held physical gold & silver for years, mainly as insurance.
I bought au in the 4to600 range and ag in the 5to7 dollar range. I have far more silver than gold due to a simple reason… Cash money to buy with, or lack there of.
One thing that bugs me though are the claims that Gold is at all time highs. It’s not, from it’s high in the 80’s when you factor in inflation, it would need to be around $2300.00. Anyway it will break $1000.00 again at some point.
I’m not sure what it is going to do wmbz. I kind of think it could go either way, but I don’t know. I got in at 600.
All sorts of things going on in the PM world, Hong Kong is pulling it’s bullion reserves out of London, they have built their own storage facility, and this…
China is going to promote PM sales to the masses over there.
Thursday , 03 Sep 2009
LONDON -
We are indebted again to Paul Mylchreest’s Thunder Road Report for news that will bring big smiles to gold and silver investors everywhere. Apparently China is pushing the idea of buying gold and silver for investment purposes to the general population in the way that Western television sells soap powder. If 1.3 billion Chinese citizens start buying gold and silver, even in tiny quantities, imagine what that will do to the market!
The report notes that China’s Central Television, the main state-owned television company, has run a news programme letting the public know how easy it is to buy precious metals as an investment. On silver investment the announcer is quoted as saying ” China has introduced its first ever investment opportunity for silver bullion. The bars are available in 500g, 1kg, 2kg and 5kg with a purity of 99.9%. Figures show that gold was fifty times more expensive than silver in 2007, but now that figure has reached over seventy times. Analysts say that silver has been undervalued in recent years. They add that the metal is the right investment for individual investors and could be a good way to cash in.”
These folks got their moneys worth…
50th birthday party - for fridge
A Coventry couple invited their friends and family to a birthday party - for their 50-year-old fridge.
Paul and Val Howkins had banners, party poppers and even a cake to mark the milestone, reports the Daily Telegraph.
They bought the Prestcold fridge for £65 on August Bank Holiday in 1959, four years after they got married, and insist it is almost good as new.
Party guests enjoyed a buffet of cheese and wine, which had naturally been chilled in the fridge.
Mr Howkins, 75, a retired aeronautical engineer said: “Everyone tells us to get rid of it but we don’t want to.
“Most people didn’t have fridges 50 years ago but our kitchen faced south so it was warm.
“We had a piece of beef on a lump of concrete and it went rotten, so I said we had to buy a fridge.
“The thermostat went about 30 years ago and when I took it to Prestcold to get another one the man said where on earth did you get that?
“They didn’t even make fridges any more by that point.”
Mr Howkins managed to source a new part and the fridge has continued working ever since.
freeks!
wmbz: I love that story and for a reason too. I don’t want to bore people with. My only question is the obvious, how inefficient was it electricity wise? What a neat story though.
Taste like green shoots to you?
“1.3 million to lose jobless benefits by year’s end
Out of work, out of benefits: As unemployment checks end, impact on families, economy grows.
By Tamara Lush, Associated Press Writer
On Thursday September 3, 2009, 2:27 pm EDT
(AP) — Unemployment benefits are expected to run out by the end of the year for more than 1.3 million Americans unless Congress or individual states authorize another extension.
The National Employment Law Project says more than 402,000 Americans will exhaust their unemployment benefits by the end of this month. That figure will more than triple by the end of December.
The government does not track how many jobless Americans have exhausted both their standard and extended benefits, but experts say the figure is nearly 100,000 and rising.”
Oh and these people aren’t counted as “unemployed” when the government releases its phony statistics, either. These are merely “discouraged workers” who have no business clogging up unemployment numbers, according to Big Brother.
Also creeping into the national conversation is the effect of unemployment on FICA taxes. People who are not employed don’t pay Social Security taxes, unless they have an taxable income stream from another source. This slowdown occurs at a time the Baby Boomers are beginning to come onto the Social Security roll in big numbers.
Palmy and Muggy: This isn’t a bad read read for Yahoo. Check this out. You all knew about the mini-exodus anyway, but there is some stuff in here:
There are many things public officials probably shouldn’t do during a severe recession, but no one seems to have told the leaders in Florida about them. One thing, for instance, would be giving a dozen top aides hefty raises while urging a rise in property taxes, as the mayor of Miami-Dade County recently did. Or jacking up already exorbitant hurricane-insurance premiums, as Florida’s government-run property insurer just did. Or sending an army of highly paid lobbyists to push for a steep hike in electricity rates, as South Florida’s public utility is doing.
And you wonder why the Sunshine State is experiencing its first net emigration of people since World War II. (See pictures: “Florida’s Paradise Lost.”)
A few years ago, journalists - citing the chasm between Miami’s high cost of living and its low level of income - began predicting that South Florida and its perpetual population-growth machine would soon face the unthinkable: a falling head count. Now it’s official. The region - Miami-Dade, Broward and Palm Beach counties - lost 27,400 residents between 2008 and 2009, while Florida as a whole lost 58,000. That’s not exactly a mass exodus for a state of 18 million; but it’s the first net outflow in 63 years for a state that considers itself the new California. “It’s difficult for the working middle class to justify living here,” Mike Jones, president of the Palm Beach County Economic Council, conceded to the South Florida Sun-Sentinel. “As much as they may love the sunshine, as you squeeze them out, they may find it in their best interests to move.”
Jones gets it, but residents are starting to question whether the rest of their leaders do. Homeowners, especially in Broward and Miami-Dade, have been falling out of their flip-flops in recent days as they open their preliminary property-tax notices to find increases of 15% or more. That’s sizable in a low-income region where the median property-tax bill is already some $3,000, and it’s doubly frustrating given that property values have slid by some 25% during Florida’s housing bust. Residents have barely digested the recent news that their hurricane-insurance premiums, which can top $5,000 a year for most South Florida homes, will rise 10% a year for the next three years (vital, officials claim, for handling claims from the next big storm). And their public utility, Florida Power & Light (FPL), is lobbying the state for a 30% rate hike (vital, FPL execs insist, for upgrading infrastructure). “It all seems out of control to people here at the time when they can least absorb it,” says Dr. Jose Valladares, president of the conservative Fair Property Tax for All in Miami-Dade. (Read about Florida’s property-tax revolt.)
Granted, most local governments often have to raise taxes when they’re staring at fiscal craters like the $427 million shortfall in Miami-Dade’s proposed $7.83 billion budget. But the less than sunny mood in Miami-Dade is made darker by the feeling among most residents that their fiscal jam is not just a result of falling revenue, but also years of profligate mismanagement. The final determination on their property taxes will be made soon by the Miami-Dade County Commission - a feckless, corruption-tainted body, many of whose members ran up hundreds of thousands of dollars in police overtime costs recently by using cops as their personal chauffeurs. (None of the commissioners face any sanctions for it.)
Residents were further outraged last week when the Miami Herald reported that Miami-Dade Mayor Carlos Alvarez, one of the few Miami politicians with a reputation for probity, had raised the salaries of his chief of staff and other top lieutenants this year as high as 15% while calling for a 5% pay cut for county workers. Alvarez spokesperson Victoria Mallette says the raises resulted from a 2007 referendum that gave Miami-Dade’s mayor, until then a relatively weak post, broad new powers that in turn thrust heavier duties on his staff. She also notes that Alvarez actually cut his office’s budget last year by almost 15% and that he helped build an $80 million reserve fund. Still, a Herald editorial called Alvarez’s raises “irresponsible.” Watchdogs like Valladares complain that Miami-Dade’s bureaucracy, like so many local governments in this decade, got too bloated during the economic boom. The County Commission, for example, has a staff of more than 200 serving only 13 commissioners - and yet it still managed to screw up tasks like its oversight of Miami-Dade’s scandal-plagued housing agency.
Many Americans find it hard to feel sorry for Valladares and all the other Floridians who pay no state income tax. Floridians are indeed guilty of an arrogant belief that living in “paradise” should be a birthright as cheap as gassing up an SUV. It was, until Florida’s relentless and miserably planned growth spawned problems that the peninsula is struggling to handle, including skyrocketing property taxes and hurricane-insurance premiums. Governor Charlie Crist has tried in recent years to rein in those twin vampires, but together they can still exceed what folks in many other states pay for state income tax, local property tax and homeowner’s insurance combined. And whereas high-cost states like New York, California and Illinois also have some of the country’s highest median incomes, Florida’s is in the bottom half.
In a state that worshipped condo-flippers as great entrepreneurs, it was all a house of cards waiting to be blown down when the housing bubble burst. Now that it has happened, those Floridians who haven’t left the state had hoped their officials might change the way they do things - or at least not attend a Kentucky Derby party hosted by the same FPL honchos lobbying them for a rate hike, as a Florida Public Service Commission director has admitted to doing a few months ago. But if Miami and Florida officials can’t get their acts together, they can probably expect even lower head counts in the years to come.
Extrapolate and extend this phenomemon to “soak the rich” , “bleed the corporations”, and “level the playing field” attempts to engineer wealth distribution and social justice.
You find people who can afford to move, will move out of town, out of state, out of the country. You find businesses closing down and laying people off. You find governments trying to tax dark storefronts and empty parking lots.
You wind up with a bunch of poor people standing around demanding services and entitlements from politicians with nothing in the treasury. What an improvement over “Bush”.
What an improvement over “Bush”.
The last Democratic president left us with a surplus after taking over from the previous president who, coincidentally, was also named “Bush” and also went on a military adventure in the middle east.
I guess that little success wasn’t enough. Not only do they need to do it again, but this time let’s hope they make it stick.
It could possibly hapen again with a Democratic President. Don’t think it will with the current Marxist one.
Don’t think it will with the current Marxist one.
Oh, snap!
So what is the current President? Marxism, Communism, Socialist? Watch out he may be the beginning of the Apocalypse.
Forgot to swallow the bitter pill cobalt?
Comment by lavi d
2009-09-03 17:03:54
Don’t think it will with the current Marxist one.
Oh, snap!
Haw haw! Is this more of that subtle and long-ranging irony thingie?
Bush dug us into such a deep whole, not much of a chance to fix things in only 8 yrs.
Gotta love Bush for cutting taxes (2x) AND increasing spending???? WTF was he thinking?
He wanted to be known as the Greatest president in creating UNDERGROUND jobs…..and he sure was!
—————————
WTF was he thinking?
The last Democratic president left us with a surplus
As long as you went by Enron and WorldCom-style accounting.
Actually, wasn’t Clinton pretty good about “Pay to Play” when he increased spending? Not sure if that’s the correct term, but it just means if he spent in one place without raising revenue, he had to cut it elsewhere.
Bush would increase spending, lower taxes, and never make cuts. The Medicare bill he signed was a prime example. Was that the prescription benefit?
It was an episode of Frontline on PBS. A piece on the national debt.
What non-third world country will they move to that has lower taxes on its wealthy? Or will they move to a country where they need bulletproof cars and bodyguards? You know, one of those low-tax-on-the-wealthy ones.
Paraguay.
Oops you said ‘non third world country’.
Past admin fam owns mucho land there. I guess to bird watch.
Dont’ need to ‘bleed’ the corporations, just how about they pay their fair share of taxes just like the rest of business does here in the good ol USA? No more skating off to some island/country to skip on corp bills.
Correct me if I’m wrong, but isn’t a corporation considered a person according to the law? If they are afforded the rights of a person, why not tax them as such?
Actually, they are more like a child, not a person. Allowed to act however they wish kicking and screaming, but not be held responsible for the consequences. They can externalize as many of their costs as they wish to society and the world, but reap all the profits.
Actually, they are more like a child, not a person. Allowed to act however they wish kicking and screaming, but not be held responsible for the consequences.
Bravo, Rob, that’s a great way of putting it.
EXODUS: (from yahoo news)
Florida Exodus: Rising Taxes Drive Out Residents
There are many things public officials probably shouldn’t do during a severe recession, but no one seems to have told the leaders in Florida about them. One thing, for instance, would be giving a dozen top aides hefty raises while urging a rise in property taxes, as the mayor of Miami-Dade County recently did.
…
A few years ago, journalists - citing the chasm between Miami’s high cost of living and its low level of income - began predicting that South Florida and its perpetual population-growth machine would soon face the unthinkable: a falling head count. Now it’s official. The region - Miami-Dade, Broward and Palm Beach counties - lost 27,400 residents between 2008 and 2009, while Florida as a whole lost 58,000. That’s not exactly a mass exodus for a state of 18 million; but it’s the first net outflow in 63 years for a state that considers itself the new California. “It’s difficult for the working middle class to justify living here,” Mike Jones, president of the Palm Beach County Economic Council, conceded to the South Florida Sun-Sentinel. “As much as they may love the sunshine, as you squeeze them out, they may find it in their best interests to move.”
From the Agora5
Walking the long, windy road toward the demise of the dollar, we spy another mile marker today: China is officially putting their money where their mouth is.
After clamoring for a reserve alternative all year, the Chinese government agreed to a $50 billion currency-diverse deal with the IMF today. Back in June, the deal seemed imminent. This morning, it finally came to fruition.
In their deal with the IMF — the first of its kind for any nation, ever — China buys $50 billion worth of bonds denominated in Special Drawing Rights, which will represent a basket of global monies. (That basket will be a split between the dollar, euro, pound and yen… not exactly the gems of the global currency batch.)
Still, it’s probably a win for China on several fronts: They get to ditch the dollar (sort of) without making a big geopolitical stink. In fact, since their funds will prop up the IMF’s rescue coffer, China gets to play the global good guy for once — while also purchasing some political influence over the IMF.
Russia and Brazil have each promised to buy $10 billion of these bonds, as well.
Even more weird then that the $ is up today….
Woo hoo! Mechanic just called. Car repairs only cost about 60% of what I was guessing they would cost. I saved. I saved.
Good for you Absolute! That IS a rarity.
I found mechanics on craiglist who work weekends for $30 an hr on cars. I can finally get the ol’ Jeep fixed. Our normal rate her is $85 an hr.
I have to scan CL for a local mechanic for my next repair. I understand these guys want the work and they have the skills. Find a highly competent mechanic and they are priceless.
RI Governor: State to lay off 1,000 workers
AP
PROVIDENCE, R.I. — Gov. Don Carcieri said Thursday that he will lay off 1,000 state workers after a judge issued a last-minute ruling blocking him from shutting down the government for a day to save money.
The governor’s announcement came shortly after Supreme Court Justice Maureen McKenna Goldberg stopped Carcieri from forcing about 80 percent of the roughly 13,500-member state work force to stay home without pay Friday. It was supposed to be the first of a dozen shutdown days before July as part of an effort to close a $68 million shortfall in a state budget hammered by surging unemployment and dwindling state tax revenue.
“She has left me with no option but layoffs,” Carcieri said in a written statement, referring to Goldberg’s ruling.
A just wonder how far this “economy” will go until all the little people just declare “screw it!” and drop out of the system. Everyone just stops paying all debt - CC’s mortgages, insurance premiums, taxes, everything…
The top 0.00001%, the feds, banks and China could just trade make believe feel good propaganda with one another and keep their game going until it all falls apart…
A just wonder how far this “economy” will go until all the little people just declare “screw it!” and drop out of the system.
Interesting question.
But, I just don’t understand what you people have against Depeche Mode.
DM for the nightime:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=laaHLnlc_CQ
A just wonder how far this “economy” will go until all the little people just declare “screw it!” and drop out of the system. Everyone just stops paying all debt - CC’s mortgages, insurance premiums, taxes, everything…
Yup, the payment makers are going on strike.
Gold way up today. $ 19.80 per oz. Not too sure why. Banks are still open. Stock market still sort of going up. No planes falling out of the sky. Why gold up ?
Blind guess: Something really big and unstoppable is brewing behind the scenes which has not yet hit the news…
I posted above something about China now giving permission to Chinese companies to renege on derivatives contracts issued and sold by Western banks and brokerages. The implications are not good for the Western banking and financial system, which may explain renewed interest and enthusiasm in precious metals.
That was quite a spike in gold prices today, wasn’t it?
Including ours….
…future…hangs in the balance. That is an odd statement regarding systemically important financial entities in an economy virtually overgrown with green shoots!
Financial Times
Houses to put in order
By Saskia Scholtes
Published: September 3 2009 20:27 | Last updated: September 3 2009 20:27
…
For decades, the two so-called government-sponsored enterprises (GSEs) – private companies operating under a federal charter – had been silent partners in more than half of all home loans made to US borrowers. Their role was to buy loans from banks and other lenders, package them into securities that they guaranteed and sell those on to investors or hold them on their balance sheets.
Individual homeowners were thus seldom aware they had a Fannie- or Freddie-backed loan – but many have enjoyed lower interest rates on their home loans because the two companies kept money flowing through the market. Backed by an implicit government guarantee, their mission was to support the US housing market by providing liquidity, stability and affordability for those in need of a mortgage.
All that was thrown into question on September 7 2008, when their mounting losses and increasingly acute funding difficulties pushed the two abruptly into Washington’s arms. Fannie and Freddie had succumbed to multi-billion dollar credit losses as the housing bubble burst in 2006 and millions of borrowers defaulted on their mortgage payments, eroding their already thin capital cushions. A year into the global credit squeeze, investors became increasingly fearful of collapse and stopped lending money to the two companies, forcing the government to step in.
Now, as the White House begins to draft reform proposals for Fannie and Freddie to be presented along with the government’s 2011 budget in February, the future of these two venerable institutions still hangs in the balance. Supporters of Fannie and Freddie warn that aggressive changes to the way they operate could make mortgages more expensive and put home ownership out of reach for many. Critics counter that downsizing or killing off government support for the two companies would allow markets to assess risk more effectively and curtail the excesses that led to the housing market collapse.
…
I predict you will hear more and more about this little twist in the world’s economic matrix:
The Chinese government has told Chinese companies they do not have to honor derivatives and commodity futures contracts made with Western financial institutions.
(From Reuters FinancialServicesAndRealEstateNews)
This is one of the most important of many nails in the coffin for the soon to implode Federal Reserve Board. The Chinese have every right to renege on those contracts because they were fraudulent. First of all the Feds manipulated the commodities markets to their benefit and to the detriment of the Chinese. They also allowed 100 times leverage thus allowing for astronomical ponzi schemes to be set up.
Furthermore, they almost certainly did not properly explain the risks when they made their deals with the Chinese. Now that their attempt to rip off the Chinese is blowing up in their faces, these financial institutions will implode. This will set off a chain of events that will make the Lehman Brothers implosion seem like a storm in a tea cup. The total amount of derivatives contracts outstanding is now over $5000 trillion or 100 times world GDP. In other words it is just a giant illusion waiting to vanish along with the institutions that peddled it.
So is this what Warren Buffett meant when he called derivatives “financial weapons of mass destruction”?
Finance and Economics
Derivatives contracts in China
Our loss, your problem
Sep 3rd 2009 | HONG KONG
From The Economist print edition
China considers bailing out of costly futures contracts
GIVEN its vast reserves and seemingly healthy economy, a default by China’s government or one of its tentacles should be one of the lesser concerns for international markets. This perception was jolted on August 28th by reports that the State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission (SASAC) might endorse a move by large state-controlled enterprises under its umbrella to break derivatives contracts that were purchased last year from international banks to protect them from rising commodity prices.
Details, inevitably, are fuzzy. There is no official comment; terrified international bankers are silent. But reports in the local press and some elaboration by participants suggest that efforts by the country’s large shippers, airlines and power companies to cope with high oil prices by taking out futures contracts produced steep losses as the market reversed and prices fell.
…
It amuses me that they say low interest rates make housing affordable. Wasn’t it low interest rates that was the tinder that created the bubble in the first place? And how do high prices associated with low rates make housing more affordable? The amount that people can pay per month will eventually stabilize at some combination of interest rates and prices
WASHINGTON (AP) — Rates for 30-year home loans edged down this week, remaining close to record lows reached over the spring.
…
“Low mortgage rates are helping to keep housing very affordable,” Frank Nothaft, Freddie Mac’s chief economist, said in a statement.
To revive the economy, the Federal Reserve is spending $1.25 trillion on mortgage-backed securities, which has driven down rates on home loans. That money is set to run out by winter, though some analysts expect the central bank to gradually scale back its purchases, allowing the program to last longer.”
Finance.yahoo.com
Also - isn’t one government agency exchanging debt for dollars equivalent to printing money? The famous “monetizing debt” which I thought they were going to stop?
Hey,
I think I remember someone years back talking about people that would be renting out rooms in their homes and of course that prediction came true big time.
I stumbled onto this tonight and I don’t think I ever read anyone predicting this one:
Bring a Tent and Pitch.
http://miami.craigslist.org/pbc/roo/1355117778.html
Folks now I have seen everything, is this even legal?
Somehow I don’t think so in my neighborhood as well.
There’s a homeless advocate here in Sacramento, CA that has leased a piece of bare land (or part of his yard) that he owns to people who were kicked out of camps along the Sacramento and American rivers.
Sac Police STILL rousted the campers even though they were on private land leased to them by the owner. The confiscated their tents and sleeping bags as evidence and charged them with illegal camping.
Nothing like living in a Napoleonic society where everything is illegal.
Can’t believe no one has posted this yet (or did I just miss it?). There has truly never been a better time to rent!
Suggested movie title: “The Accidental Landlord”
* The Wall Street Journal
* SEPTEMBER 3, 2009, 5:33 P.M. ET
The Reluctant Landlords
By M.P. MCQUEEN
With housing prices still in the dumps, many Americans are finding themselves in the uncomfortable position of landlord.
Some have been forced to relocate for a job and can’t sell their houses. Others have moved, but are holding on to their previous homes, hoping for prices to rebound before selling. Many are finding that rent checks don’t come close to covering their mortgage payments.
Hard data are scant on how many homeowners are renting out their homes, but anecdotal evidence suggests numbers are up. In one indication of the trend: More homeowners are converting their homeowners insurance to landlord policies that cover the additional risks of leasing out a home. Allstate Corp., the second largest home insurer in the U.S., reported a 27% increase in conversions in the first quarter from the previous year.
“The number of rental homes available is greater today than it was a year ago due to the foreclosure crisis,” says Mike Nelson, current president of Rental Home Professionals Inc., a multiple listing service of rental homes owned by the National Association of Residential Property Managers in Chesapeake, Va.
…
The link is in the very first post …
Dang — I must have been asleep when I hunted for it…
If this guy is correct, then his story puts the lie to the San Diego real estate recovery. Please, please, please, God, let his information be correct!!!
KPBS San Diego Public Radio
Is Local Real Estate Starting to Turn Around?
By Maureen Cavanaugh, Hank Crook
These Days | Thursday, September 3, 2009
…
CAVANAUGH: Well, now I turn to you, Matt, in a discussion of what’s going on, excuse me, in the residential market. And, you know, we hear all sorts of things. I mean, good news, bad news, we haven’t hit bottom yet. We’re on our way back up. What’s your take on what’s going on?
BATTIATA: Well, you know, there are – what we’ve seen in the last few months is that there’s been news come – that’s come out in the media that, you know, for a particular month the median price has tracked up by a percentage point or – and so forth, which is new because it hasn’t happened over the last handful of years. But, unfortunately, there’s a lot of false, you know, I’d call those false positives. Just because the median price bounce – you know, might in – actually go up by one or two percentage points in a given month, unfortunately is not cause to say, you know, the bad – you know, the good times are back and that the residential market has recovered. The reality is in San Diego County, we’ve dropped, really, the reality is, about 50% because you have to remember that when the bank takes back a property as a foreclosure sale, a trustee sale at the courthouse, typically what happens is the bank forecloses on your home, you owed $700,000.00 on it. They start the bidding, not always but usually, at $700,000.00 and no one’s going to bid $700,000.00 on your house because it’s not worth anywhere near that. And so what happens is, no one bids on it, the bank takes it back. That becomes what we call an REO, a real estate owned by the bank. The County Recorder’s office records that as a sale at $700,000.00.
CAVANAUGH: Wow.
BATTIATA: Now, obviously, that’s the exact opposite of a sale, number one, and it sure as heck is not a sale at $700,000.00. So when DataQuick pulls the numbers, they factor that $700,000.00 sale into the median price. So when you have lots and lots of foreclosures, guess what? It looks like there were more sales than there were in previous months and it also looks like the median price has gone up a little bit because those numbers are not accurate. So when we have – You know, we’ve had several – We’ve had more than – We’ve had three or four moratoriums that have gone into effect, foreclosure moratoriums. There’s a huge, huge, number of residential foreclosures that are still coming down the pike. They’re going to be around in San Diego County until, I would say, 2013. There’s also a huge number of short sales that are coming because there’s a lot of people who bought at the peak of the market. There’s also a lot of people who refinanced and pulled their equity out at the peak of the market. So for – until the values in San Diego come back up to 2005 and 2006 levels, which is going to be, unfortunately, quite a while, anyone who needs to sell, they’re being – their job is getting transferred, they’re moving out of the city, they’re getting divorced, they lost their job, whatever the reason is, they’re going to be a short sale and short sales and foreclosures put a lot of downward pressure on real estate values. So I would say at the bottom of the market, yes, we’re – we are kind of bouncing around the bottom, we’re getting close to the bottom. The upper end, you know, we’ve got more to go, unfortunately. But the reality is, you know, we’re not at the bottom. It doesn’t mean that it’s not a good time for a first time buyer to go out and buy because there’s a lot of positive factors as well. Interest rates are low. You know, it’s much more affordable, etcetera. But it’s really just not accurate. I don’t see how anyone can look at this market and look at all the data and say, you know, like – like I think the Association of Realtors said recently that, gee whiz, we’re at the bottom and we’re going to start rocketing up. It’s just not accurate.
…
http://www.kpbs.org/news/2009/sep/03/local-real-estate-starting-turn-around/
“So when DataQuick pulls the numbers, they factor that $700,000.00 sale into the median price. So when you have lots and lots of foreclosures, guess what? It looks like there were more sales than there were in previous months and it also looks like the median price has gone up a little bit because those numbers are not accurate.”
Would DataQuick really tell such a blatant statistical lie? I would think their reputation would go straight into the toilet. What is wrong with people who work for the REIC?
Hoo boy! You found a good link! I think that Battiata is right. It’s cooked books folks! This REO stuff is just a scheme to make it look as though RE prices are not falling as fast as pundits expected. Got T-bills?
“Now, obviously, that’s the exact opposite of a sale, number one, and it sure as heck is not a sale at $700,000.00.”
If it turns out that DataQuick has deliberately averaged in non-sales in calculating ‘median sales statistics,’ would that be considered fraudulent — i.e., a crime? Or can they just calculate their numbers any misleading way they want and publish them under names which suggest they are something which they are not?
Try not to catch yerself a falling knife
Suppose the DataQuick error this guy alleges was due to an oversight. Will they have to go back and restate their numbers to fix it?
So a foreclosure sale to someone other than the bank is not recorded but the bank taking the house back at the bid price is? Amazing.
10 hours to go for this Friday’s FDIC announcement. How many banks will it be this time? It’s a long weekend, after all.
Looks like a former player for the Dallas Cowboys just got arrested for mortgage fraud. Here’s the article from the Dallas Morning News.
Mimbo.
Mimbo.
thx
And how about this?
http://tinyurl.com/nrqwkr
Get ready for gold to go up above $1500 per ounce.
Cool! Aladinsane, wherever you are, I hope you enjoy the pleasure of saying, “I told you so!”
Would this result in an overnight dollar devaluation of 1/3 its value (in gold) and transfer the value into the hands of the Chinese savers who bought the gold? Or am I missing something here?
gold’s hovering around $1,000 means wannabe gold traders best dump it before the big boys take their profits.. and yours.
..my two (fiat) cents.