You Could Buy A Loser Just As Easily As A Winner
-by the Mysterious Flying Miser
OK guys, a while back I let you have an interview from a real-estate investor in California named Bruce Norris. You all weren’t exactly very nice to the guy, so I decided to give you another chance because I know you can do it. I interviewed an old-time HBB reader and real-estate analyst, Jack McCabe, to find out what he thinks about buying and investing in Florida and other US markets. I asked him exactly 10 questions, to be neat and tidy, so I hope you appreciate it.
1. Describe what your company does.
McCabe Research and Consulting specializes in real estate research, analysis, and consulting. I also perform expert witness testimony for high-level RE litigation cases.
2. Can you provide some examples of the litigation you’ve been involved in?
I have been involved in cases that run the gamut of real estate squabbles. From eminent domain cases; to a case where three developers were working together, and one of them sold a bunch of units at increased prices, pocketed the money, and ran off without developing the units as promised; to a developer suing its attorney after 100% of its potential buyers rescinded their offers; to a case where a mom is suing the trustees of her daughter’s inheritance because they sold the property without converting it to condos first.
Essentially, the love-fest is over and the finger-pointing has begun. Studies and services for litigation cases have become growing revenue streams for our business.
3. Do you focus on a particular sector of the market?
Our firm is best known for multifamily research, including research on condos, townhomes, condo conversions, hotels, condo-hotels, and resorts. Although we focus on this market, I also have an extensive personal background in sales and project management for national single-family home builders. Initially, the firm concentrated mainly on Florida real estate, but we have extended our research coverage to all bubble markets, including Las Vegas, Phoenix, San Diego, the Inland Empire, Orange County, Sacramento, Bakersfield, and Stockton. We’ve also recently added the condo markets in Chicago, New York, and Austin.
4. Describe your typical client.
Our client base has changed and evolved with the correction cycle.
During the boom years (from 2001 to 2005), our clients were mainly apartment management/ownership companies, condo conversion companies, condo and condo-hotel developers, appraisers, and commercial real estate lenders. These clients were heavily involved in all facets of new construction. Our products at the time were “off the shelf” multifamily data reports and market feasability studies.
Today, we really do not have a typical client so to speak. Our clientele is very diverse. We work with high net-worth individuals, developers, lenders, private equity firms, hedge funds, and attorneys. Except for the attorneys, these clients are often opportunistic buyers looking to acquire REOs or mortgage notes on distressed properties at highly discounted prices from 2006 peak levels.
I also am engaged as a speaker/commentator by a variety of associations, colleges, and private firms. This fall, my audiences will include members of the Appraisal Institute; attendees at a national real-estate-publication-sponsored distressed-property seminar; and international investors who subscribe to an investment publication out of Baltimore.
5. Describe what’s going on in your focal market right now.
Florida is the epicenter of the housing depression and national/global recession. The overconstruction of condominiums and single-family homes, the ridiculous amount of apartment-to-condominium conversions, rampant and runaway speculative buying (which artificially doubled real demand during the boom), and the high percentage of toxic ARMs peaked first in Florida. While many of the toxic-loan lenders were headquartered in California, the mortgages and resultant foreclosures have destroyed Florida markets.
Florida has a long way to go before the pipeline of foreclosures begins to decline. Foreclosures will fuel the inventory pools in this state for the next 18-24 months, and the biggest wave of foreclosures still lies ahead. Three years ago, Florida unemployment was 4.3%; today, it’s 10.6%. I expect to see it rise to over 12% sometime in 2010. On top of that, the state actually lost population between June 2008 and June 2009, the first recorded population loss for Florida since WWII. All this does not bode well for local real estate through at least the end of 2010.
That said, there are some deals, although one must do excellent homework and be very sophisticated to take advantage of them. I don’t think you absolutely have to know someone at the bank to get a good deal. Of course it helps if you know someone who works at a bank’s strategic-assets group, but if you go to the courthouse steps in many Florida counties, you will find thousands and thousands of foreclosure sales every month.
One interesting phenomenon I see occurring during foreclosure sales is the formation of cliques. People will form groups, and then purposefully outbid others or overbid to prevent their competition (with competing strategic interests) from getting what they want. Sometimes they will cooperate and agree not to bid on each other’s pet properties. For this reason, it may be better to endure the frustration of short sales, where bidding competition is not normally a factor.
Another recent development is the upsurge in auction sales held by lenders. Units can go at these auctions for as little as 20% of boom-time highs. Other investors are pooling their money in groups to acquire bulks of units.
6. What is your favorite data source? Why?
I spend countless hours every day reading. I read all Florida newspapers, the Wall Street Journal, the New York Times, the Chicago Tribune, the Orange County Register, The San Diego Union-Tribune, and real estate, banking, and economic articles of US and international websites. We also purchase data from various information providers (such as Global Insight, Claritas, etc), as well as performing our own extensive research in the Florida markets.
I have also garnered a wealth of information from the Housing Bubble Blog, clicking on Ben’s links and picking out pearls of wisdom from the comments section. It was entirely helpful because everything was in one place where you could see it. I found a lot of insider knowledge among the various informed and uninformed opinions, as the anonymity of the internet allowed people to speak more freely than they might have otherwise. I also highly valued the neighborhood-level information.
7. What is your least favorite data source? Why?
I have a love/hate relationship with the National Association of Realtors (NAR) and the Florida Association of Realtors (FAR). Their analysis and text press releases throughout this cycle have been 180 degrees different from what their datasheets reveal. The sales, pricing, and percentage-change data are useful, but you can’t count on the press releases, which are finely spun propaganda pieces at best. Also, some of the main-stream newspapers have tended to be much more positive, sun-shiny, and glass-more-than-half-full than what was justified by reality.
8. Do you use a different decision-making process when considering a multifamily property than when considering a single-family property?
Yes. Single-family houses don’t get as much overconstruction during boom cycles because, when competition for land is fierce, it’s much easier to build a 40-story tower on ½ acre than it is to build an entire subdivision. Hence, single-family houses will rebound more quickly than multifamily. If an investor can buy a house and rent it to cover expenses, then that investor is in a good position. When purchasing a condo as an investment, however, one must anticipate more dramatic changes in value during boom/bust cycles.
9. Do you think that now is a good time for investors to start buying properties? Why or why not?
I think now is a good time for everyone to start doing homework. Study your target market(s), the submarkets, neighborhood, project or dwelling, and all potential data sources. If you have your eye on a particular multifamily building, find out how many units are vacant, how many are in foreclosure, what percentage of owners are not paying their HOA dues, etc. There are plenty of landmines out there, but there are some deals that make sense. I warn investors never to buy an investment property, condo or otherwise, unless it will immediately and consistently generate positive cash flow.
If you see what looks like an excellent opportunity to purchase a lot, several, or a chunk of land, again, do your homework or consult with an expert before moving forward.
You don’t need to pull the trigger within the next few months. This downturn and depressed prices will continue in many markets for at least the next 18 months. Real estate is a long-term investment, so don’t plan on buying and flipping in a year or two. The days are over when properties rose in value by double-digit percentages for years to come, unless you buy smart. Today, you must use extreme caution and be very sophisticated. You could buy a loser just as easily as a winner.
10. Do you think that now is a good time for owner-occupants to start buying properties? Why or why not?
If you are a potential owner-occupier with a plan to stay in the house at least 5 years, then, in the lower price ranges, now can be a good time to buy in some areas and markets. For first-time homeowners, this is made possible through the $8,000 tax credit (which I expect will be increased and extended), and additional tax advantages. However, there is still the potential for decline in values (10% over the next year, flat for a couple years after that). I advise prudence, a minimum down payment of 10-20%, and a conservative fixed-rate mortgage with PITI payments less than 28% of your household gross monthly income. In 5 years, it might be worth more than what you paid. Then again, maybe not. It will depend on the area and the deal you negotiate. Your priority should not be investment value, but rather how the house suits your needs.
As far as Florida goes, the light at the end of the long, dark tunnel is visible, but still a pinhole. Florida will always have sunshine, warm weather, beautiful beaches, and turquoise ocean waters. When population growth increases again in future years, real estate in the Sunshine State will again become a worthwhile investment. The long-term prospects for the market are still excellent, once this historic, decade-long rocket ride/crash to earth debacle is finally over and sanity again returns to real estate and financing.
Stay tuned because, if we’re lucky, we can expect Mr. McCabe to appear in the comments section today. You all should come armed with the best questions ya got.
First, excellent interview:
2nd
“This downturn and depressed prices will continue in many markets for at least the next 18 months.”
Someone please convince my wife of this! She’s gotten the bug! AAAAAAAAAGGGGGGGGHHHHHHHHH
Question for Jack McCabe:
Where do you see mortgage requirements going over the next 18 months.
Got Popcorn?
Neil
Can you just tell her that you can’t afford a house?
Have her read this. Print it out at the end of the day!
Neil, I hear you. At least you’re out in the trenches still fighting. We close tomorrow.
MAN DOWN! MAN DOWN! SOMEBODY GET THE MEDIC!
Recommended remedy for “the bug”: Force her to read the HBB on a daily basis. (I will do the same if my wife ever catches a case of house purchase ‘whine flu’…)
Tell your wife real estate is a LONG TERM investment.
The 5 yr option arms are coming due starting next year.
2005 top + 5 years = 2010
Neil,
Tell her Obama is going to announce a major reduction in military contracts as a deficit reduction measure. Expect 50% layoffs in our industry.
It’s probably true.
James
*gasp* Please God…. not LESS death, destruction and violence!!!!!
and WORSE Exeter:
OHbaaamaH’s new crime policy to demand black people step up to the plate and commit crimes at the same rate as white people.
100,000 police officers laid off for lack or work to do.
the horror!
Ah, but that will be offset by him demanding that poor people steal the same dollar amounts as rich people. Crime will spike 100000% as it takes quite a few muggings to catch up with Bernie.
Wait, you don’t expect him to make the rich steal LESS do you? That’s CRAZAY TALK!
Frankly, I think I’d rather lose my life savings to a Bernie Madoff than the contents of my wallet to a street thug. For two reasons:
1) If I got burned by a Madoff, I can remind myself it was my own damned fault for expecting an above-market return, and that deep down I knew something had to be fishy all along. It’s hard to cheat an honest man.
2) A Madoff type is less likely to get impatient as I’m fumbling for the money and shoot me dead.
james don’t be such a nincompoop.
Man, you guys have got to learn to lie. A lie like the one I threw out there sounds like it might be true.
I haven’t seen the Dems get close to cutting military spending.
And I’m in this field to avoid the mass of outsourcing.
At least its a moral job compared to expanding internet and cell phone capacity. All that seems to do is support porn.
Introduce her to somebody being foreclosed on. Seeing that level of desperation will put some fear into people’s hearts.
Excellent idea.
(And not too hard to find these days)
My wife’s parents are being foreclosed on and her sister will be when their loan resets.
It cooled her jets, but didn’t make her not want to own. Neil’s wife is much like mine, I suspect, in that she’s not going to force Neil to buy, but life will be much easier if he gets in before the ‘watch it drag on the bottom for 2 years to be sure’ point.
I really wanted to wait until 2012 as our ‘rashly buying in early’ time. Fortunately, we found a seller who capitulated at exactly the right time. Unfortunately, there’s still downside.
Practical suggestion:
Being one of those female things myself, I think one of the reasons women want to buy and settle is that we hate to move. So, offer to do all the moving for her.
Open a brand-spankin’ new savings account just for her. Figure out the savings between your rent and the PITI you’d pay. Each month, park that $$ into the account. Add a little premium on top to save up for an expensive mover, the one that comes and packs your stuff. And promise to make all those address-change phone calls yourself. Then you say: “Look honey, if we do this, we can get a 25-year moretgage instead of 30. And you won’t have to lift a finger to move… ”
If you want to sweethen the deal, spend some dream time with her. Draw up a hypothetical yard on graph paper and let her plan a future garden/pool/porch/deck — complete with books and catalogs, and pricings too. Women love to do that, and it will satisfy her home bug for a while. She’ll love your attention, too.
Once I showed her the ROI on hard physical silver(and to a lesser extent gold) vs. the same amount invested in realty…..she indicated that renting was indeed the very best option. So a few years ago 98% of all cash was and now is converted to precious metals.
We rent a 2500 square foot ranch on 500 acres in the country for $400/month.
It has been a very wise decision thus far.
500 acres? Where’s that? Got any available rentals in your neck of the wood? I’m moving!
What an outstanding post! I lived in Florida five years, and barely got out alive. I enjoyed every bit of that wisdom.
Thank you Mysterious Flying Miser, and thank you, Mr. McCabe.
Excellent post.
McCabe’s excellent advice for SFR buyers bears repeating:
“I advise prudence, a minimum down payment of 10-20%, and a conservative fixed-rate mortgage with PITI payments less than 28% of your household gross monthly income. In 5 years, it might be worth more than what you paid. Then again, maybe not. It will depend on the area and the deal you negotiate. Your priority should not be investment value, but rather how the house suits your needs.”
“…but rather how the house suits your needs.”
Plus how ownership costs compare to the cost of renting comparable housing.
“McCabe’s excellent advice for SFR buyers bears repeating:”
He’s stating the obvious for us. What bears thought and consideration is the fact that a 30 year note requires 30 years of stable employment.
That is the real problem.
Well, 30 years of no loss of income. If you’ve pre-built in reserves for loss of income, it’s a fair bet you’ll be making more in 30 years than you are now (unless you’re 60 and taking out a 30 year mortgage… wth?), even if you wind up taking a paycut every once in awhile.
So buying something you can easily afford now probably isn’t a disaster. Even taking a 50% paycut, you’re not doomed at 28% of your previous income. You’re not exactly happy. In fact, you may fantasize about switching places with a Gitmo detainee just to avoid eating another meal of Ramen, but you’re not totally doomed.
If you’re going to assume you could lose your job and not be able to get another one semi-permenantly, well, then save and buy something in cash, because rent will stab you in the eye just as quickly as a mortgage.
…because rent will stab you in the eye just as quickly as a mortgage.
—————
Herein lies the difference: with rent, you can always downsize and/or move to a more affordable city, state, or country. Not so much when you “own,” especially when you’ve potentially lost your 20% down payment.
Well, at least he urges caution unlike Norris did.
I contend that plenty of regions of Florida, particularly in areas like Orlando and other inland places, have unreported massive number of forclosures.
Plenty of those places are headed to zero value due to massive oversupply.
I think a lot of the outmigration is construction workers leaving in droves along with uncounted numbers of illegals. This will make oversupply in inland regions even worse.
Saving grace is the large number of retires that will swoop in for cheap places to stay. I guess when you die they will just demolish the house on top of you.
Deflationary cycle continues.
I know lots of families from my children’s school that have left. Professionals, not construction employees. Literally 75% of them are moving to North Carolina. NC is uptopia for many South Floridians for some reason.
I advise prudence, a minimum down payment of 10-20%, and a conservative fixed-rate mortgage with PITI payments less than 28% of your household gross monthly income.
Uh, this is essentially impossible to to in any decent area in SoCal, especially the (I am assuming front-end) 28% DTI ratio.
If you have a family income of $100k, with 20% down that equates to a $400,000 SFR with $80,000 down at a 5.25% 30-year FRM…..assuming you have $80,000 lying around.
Try finding a $400k SFR in a decent area, anywhere near the employment centers of SoCal……not gonna happen……
but if no one is buying prices must come down, no ?
That would be true if no one were buying. Unfortunately, there is no shortage of subprime FHA buyers who can apply their $8,000 tax credit (and seller credits — up to 3% of the purchase price, from what I’m hearing!) to their 3.5% down payment.
Everything is the same here. Boom times, and cheap money. The bubble is not over in San Diego, by any means, IMHO.
Yes John it will most certainly happen. That you can’t find the $400k SFR in a decent area is exactly why California housing prices still have along way to fall.
I agree with you in theory, I disagree with you in practice.
I think that there are going to be dramatically fewer foreclosures in the “nicer” areas than people think. Almost every person I know that owns a house is getting a “mod” from their lender - even on their investment properties.
Does it make economic sense for them to continue to make payments (albeit lower payments) on a loan far in excess of the current value of their home? No, but people are doing it every day because they don’t want to “lose their home” and they figure, what the heck, if values come back I will come out ahead and if they don’t, well I “rented” my house from the bank for a while.
So what does this mean for people that want prices to come down to reasonable levels? Extremely low inventory levels for the foreseeable future. You will either have to outbid other buyers for the few decent properties available, or bid on trashed foreclosures and hope you can fix them up to make them livable.
Nah, this thing is rolling up the income levels. I’m seeing more and more nice houses on the market every day. Have no fear; they will capitulate.
Certainly the prices in Morro Bay continue to decline. Of course, there’s no work there. It’s just a nice place for us retirees or people who work through their laptops.
AZ, do you do the lighthouse bike ride there?
I’m starting to see decent houses in “decent” neighborhoods in the San Gabriel Valley going for about $350,000. You have to search REO’s and they’re purposely making it difficult to comparative price. I think we’re just entering the capitulation stage for high end real estate in Southern California so the best deals will be around 24 months away if tricks with inflation don’t occur before then.
Outstanding interview .
What on God’s earth does being nice have to do with being honest?
Cynic
lmao…i will use this quote till the day i die.
thanks PB.
There is no misanthropy in affability,
but all the more contempt.
– Friedrich Nietzsche –
Are you actually quoting Nietzsche!? Man! He’s worse than Ayn Ranyd! ‘Man and Superman’…’Sheeps in the Meadow’…
Gosh, I shudder with embarrassment to recall that I ever studied Nietzsche on purpose.
And you should, too.
There is no misanthropy in affability,
but all the more contempt.
– Friedrich Nietzsche –
Look, let’s both of us agree to never discuss Nietzsche again, okay? And to never discuss how we never discuss Nietzsche again, either.
I won’t if you won’t.
He had too many relevant insights to ignore him entirely. Just don’t get too religious about what he had to say, and you will be fine. (Same applies to what any other “General Authority” has to say about whatever the subject…).
This gem seems particularly well-suited for explaining financial manias:
Among individuals, madness is the exception. In groups, parties, peoples and times, it is the rule.
God is dead. — Nietzsche.
Nietzsche is dead. — God.
President O. gave a very NICE speech about health care this eve.
It was good. Very good.
Yes. I found myself nodding in agreement during the entire speech. Let’s just hope he has the wherewithal to follow through.
Old Adolph was incredibly honest about what he wanted to do with the Jews and the Slavs - read Mein Kamph. Uncle Joe Stalin was incredibly honest about what he wanted to do with the Kulaks and Ukranians.
Neither are what I would consider to be a nice guy.
“Florida is the epicenter of the housing depression and national/global recession. The overconstruction of condominiums and single-family homes, the ridiculous amount of apartment-to-condominium conversions, rampant and runaway speculative buying (which artificially doubled real demand during the boom), and the high percentage of toxic ARMs peaked first in Florida. While many of the toxic-loan lenders were headquartered in California, the mortgages and resultant foreclosures have destroyed Florida markets.
Florida has a long way to go before the pipeline of foreclosures begins to decline. Foreclosures will fuel the inventory pools in this state for the next 18-24 months, and the biggest wave of foreclosures still lies ahead. Three years ago, Florida unemployment was 4.3%; today, it’s 10.6%. I expect to see it rise to over 12% sometime in 2010. On top of that, the state actually lost population between June 2008 and June 2009, the first recorded population loss for Florida since WWII. All this does not bode well for local real estate through at least the end of 2010.”
Don’t you just hate it when real estate bulls sugar coat the situation?
Dang-
I wish I could pick up a Florida retirement property now for cheap
Not retiring for 20 or so years, but now maybe the cheapest..
Wish I knew which areas will stay Ok instead of turning into gangland warfare areas
“Florida has a long way to go before the pipeline of foreclosures begins to decline.”
Did you even bother to read the interview? If yes, then WTF are you talking about?
Florida housing will be cheap for a looong time. Like probably 20 years or so.
I’m in about the same boat - looking to retire in about 15-17 years, probably in Florida. I plan to pick up a deal from the carnage that I’m sure will still exist to some extent.
It would be interesting to see a study of Florida home prices from say 1926 - 1950.
Florida median historical home values:
Inflation Adjusted (2000 is baseline):
2000 $105,500
1990 $98,500
1980 $89,300
1970 $57,600
1960 $58,100
1950 $40,100
1940 $23,100
Not Inflation Adjusted:
2000 $105,500
1990 $77,100
1980 $45,100
1970 $15,000
1960 $11,800
1950 $6,612
1940 $2,218
http://www.census.gov/hhes/www/housing/census/historic/values.html
I wonder how many people were paying for their homes with cash in the 40s. It wouldn’t be that hard to save up 23k. How much of the run up in prices was due to efforts to make homes more affordable, such as tax deductions and 30 mortgages?
Prior to the 40’s my understanding was that 50% down was the norm and mortgages were 5, maybe 10 years max. And you paid your income taxes at the end of the year - no withholding from your paycheck!
When taxes went up under Roosevelt, they instituted the withholding so people wouldn’t see how large their annual income tax bill really was. The 30 year mortgage was just an offshoot of this and the “what’s my monthly payment” society was born……the tax break for mortgage interest exacerbated this problem further…….
“It wouldn’t be that hard to save up 23k.”
True, so at this point I begin to wonder if a portion of unexpectedness is due to the inflation adjustment, and all the changes to inflation measurements over the years. How many times has the definition of the CPI been changed, and have these changes been accounted for?
I’ve always heard that the increase in house prices (inflation-adjusted) since the GD was due to the advent of the 30-year mortgage. I think the 30-year mortgage became a good idea for banks because of some changes to regulations or something.
Inywayz, this is why I always get on people’s cases when they brag that their grandparents paid cash for the farm, and act like they have inherited some prudent genius gene because of this fact. Of course your grandparents paid cash; almost everyone did at that time! They were paying like 1/5 of what people were paying before the housing bubble sprouted, and maybe 1/10 of what folks had to pay at the height of said bubble. And all of this inflation-adjusted, too!
“It wouldn’t be that hard to save up 23k.”
Not so. In the late 1940’s, the median individual income was under $6,000 per year. That was pretty much the household income as well, since few women continued working after the servicemen all came home.
My parents bought a new home for around $16K in 1949. They had managed to save close to half of that for a down payment. My father worked a second job to get the mortgage paid off as soon as they could, which was sometime in the mid-1950s. They lived mortgage-free in that same house for the next 40+ years.
Husband and I bought our Florida house for $18,000 in 1972. Yes, it woulda been hard to pay cash. Each of us had a $7K salary, so we were able to pay the mortgage down very quickly. Right, the same house woulda been over $100K in 2000, probably $200K in 2005, possibly back to $100K now.
First house I lived in cost Daddy $400. It was an ex-cotton mill house without a bathroom (It did, though, have a nice outhouse out back). It’s still standing and occupied. (Can’t say the same for the cotton mill that owned it — A victim of NAFTA.)
“I’ve always heard that the increase in house prices (inflation-adjusted) since the GD was due to the advent of the 30-year mortgage.”
– And the mortgage interest deduction
– And the establishment of a secondary market for mortgages at Fan&Fred
– And the institution of low-down payment, govt guaranteed FHA loans
– And the passage of the $500,000 capital gains exclusion for sale of owner-occupied housing
– And the passage of the American Dream (Zero) Downpayment Assistance Act
– And the abolishment of traditional mortgage loan underwriting standards to help facilitate the use of liar loans, pay-Option ARMs, NINJA loans, etc
– And the onset of the use of sumprime securitization to turn sows ear mortgages into silk purse AAA-rated MBS
– And the drastic reduction in financial regulation to make all manner of fraud and deception much easier to perpetrate
etc etc etc
The U.S. tax base needed to expand due to the Great Society Programs and the Vietnam War. Enter the seventies; the end of the Gold Standard, the Yom Kippur War and the Oil Embargo. All very costly, leading to the inflation economy.
When taxes went up under Roosevelt, they instituted the withholding so people wouldn’t see how large their annual income tax bill really was.
John, this wasn’t the reason at all. During WWII (IIRC 1943) withholding was brought in as a slick way to collect two year’s worth of revenue in a single year. They collected the previous year’s taxes in a lump sum PLUS they collected the current year’s taxes throughout the year.
This is not knowable, as the HUD has been working for 15 to 20 years, already, to move all the ghetto dwellers OUT of “public housing” and into your middle-class neighborhood, thereby bringing crime and drugs, car-jacking and illiteracy to a neighborhood near you.
Under Oh-bama, the plans have moved into high gear.
it’s a priority to get welfare recipients into nice neighborhoods to create a more perfect “union”.
As a result, i see ALL real estate, except in the most exclusive neighborhoods as “at risk” capital.
Here in Florida, i’ve seen entire neighborhoods transformed in a matter of a few years with illegal aliens and other fine, hard-working citizens, making it unsafe to walk the streets.
Good luck in buying, but be prepared to leave as soon as you seen the “hood” changing. Don’t be the last one out!!
“it’s a priority to get welfare recipients into nice neighborhoods to create a more perfect “union”.
As a result, i see ALL real estate, except in the most exclusive neighborhoods as “at risk” capital.”
Agreed. Latest example - some exclusive neighborhoods in Westchester settling the lawsuit and agreeing to “diversify” by sprinkling affordable housing (including Section
in their midst.
I wonder if the Clintons will get some new Section 8 neighbors? Nah, it’s always the least connected guy who gets hosed.
If 12% is going to be the official unemployment rate next year in Florida, what will the real number be?
20%?
25%?
Here’s a tip… once you start to see life rafts going the opposite direction to Cuba it’s a great time to buy (i.e. from Florida towards Cuba). Until then buying a home in Florida is a probably going to be a waste of money.
So 12-18 months might be right on the nose.
What is Mr McCabe’s forecast for mortgage rates for the next 12-18 months ? Have we already seen the bottom on rates ? Is the refi boom over ?
I would like to see some of McCabe’s feasibility studies his firm did during the boom years.
Miser,
Is Mr. McCabe implying that after all that’s happened, is happening, will continue to happen, there is still actually a literate human being who might seriously be considering “investing” in Florida real estate?
Really?
The beat goes on….
I grew up spending spring breaks at my grandparents’ in Florida. Now that my and my hubby’s parents live in Florida, our young son does the same. (And he has not even caught on to Disney yet.) The same is true of my now 40-ish friends from the mid-west. We meet in Florida to drink foofy drinks and watch our kids play in the sand. We will probably spend more time visiting there as our parents age. It’s not such an awful place.
Now, am I getting ready to buy? No. But the reports of the death of Florida have been greatly exaggerated.
…there is still actually a literate human being who might seriously be considering “investing” in Florida real estate? …
When nobody wants to buy in Florida.. sure.. then the time is right.
By framing FL as ground zero, is he implying that other areas won’t see the depth and scope of the declines? This assumption feeds the speculation that the bottom is here (outside of FL) which I completely disagree with. It so happens that FL has the roof collapsing inventory weighing on it which does make the case for FL being the epicenter. Im not entirely convinced that the rest of the country won’t experience that same price collapsing inventory volume at some point.
I guess I have a bunch of problems with the whole “investor” mindset.
If you are buying properties it should be able to pencil out in a cash flow sense. Either it rents and cash flows or after rehab costs can be sold at a resonable profit based on local incomes.
Anything else is just “speculation”. A large bulk buy of houses from the bank can be just as much of an albatross to the investors as it was to the bank.
Basically have some real serious math to do looking at population trends, history, tax policy, employment and wages. Then the non-mathmatical weighing this against risk vs more conservative investment. That and allowing for the 10% drop he is factoring in.
There is also an assumption that population will increase. This is far from certain as I expect immegration to fall off as opporitunity decreases and our aging population passes. Population decreases are possible starting around next year and potentially continuing till 2020.
Anyhow, this guy alludes to the sunshine tax in his last paragraph. I think if you look Florida over carefully it has a bunch of resource issues, like California does. If you are looking just beyond the waters edge, Florida is an overheated swamp with mosquitos as far as the eye can see.
And cockaroaches that fly.
And fish that walk across the street.
The trucks that spray malathion every night keep the skeeter population down. Flying roaches a/k/a “palmetto bugs” are indeed more obnoxious, and apparently immune to malathion.
I know a product that keeps skeeters from biting.
Forgot to drink it the other night. dang.
Really does work.
Thank you to all the posters above me for the very kind words and excellent questions.
1. Question for Jack McCabe:
Where do you see mortgage requirements going over the next 18 months?
A) Good question and very tough to answer/predict. Right now, we’ve seen banks and other credit sources tighten up mortgage requirements. Outside of the FHA, most borrowers are finding larger down payment requirements, higher FICO score requirements, and stricter requirements for income and verification of payback. Even those with excellent credit and easy qualifying for previous mortgages are being declined. The sales increase we’ve seen in many markets is due to investors with cash, not new owner occupiers buying their dream home.
The problem now is, we still have housing markets still in severe recession and a fairly non existent homebuilding industry. Distressed sales render most builders uncompetitive in overbuilt markets. That being said, my expectation is the Fed will keep the bank borrowing rates near 1% through 2010. The grim realization of the debt overload from stimulus and other government spending and near future hyper=inflation will force Bernanke to begin a slow methodical process of 1/4% increases.
2. What is Mr McCabe’s forecast for mortgage rates for the next 12-18 months ? Have we already seen the bottom on rates ? Is the refi boom over ?:
A) Look for them to stay low. A big question I have going forward is with so many millions that have poor credit now due to foreclosures, bankruptcies, unpaid bills, etc will we see potential creditors loosen their standards of acceptance to transact business. The recent boom in refi applications will taper off next year.
I don’t think creditors will be able to loosen their standards due to a lack of purchasers willing to buy their paper.
Dude……Fannie and Freddie represent 80% of the securitization market right now. Toss in FHA/VA/USDA, etc. and the Feds are well over 90% of the mortgage market……going forward, Uncle Sam will buy all the paper these guys can crank out…….
A big question I have going forward is with so many millions that have poor credit now due to foreclosures, bankruptcies, unpaid bills, etc will we see potential creditors loosen their standards of acceptance to transact business.
The answer is yes, California lenders had to do this to stay in business in the early to mid-90’s….I had friends that had no problem getting financing only a couple of years after FC’s or short-sales, all the lenders did is add an additional 100 to 150 basis points to the prime borrower rate. With the Feds backstopping the lenders and the FHA at at full throttle, there will be no financing problems for the masses…..
Unfortunately, you are probably right.
You said: Even those with excellent credit and easy qualifying for previous mortgages are being declined.
Why wouldn’t these buyers turn to FHA then for their loans? Or are they investors buying mulifamily homes for over the FHA cap?
“I have also garnered a wealth of information from the Housing Bubble Blog… I found a lot of insider knowledge among the various informed and uninformed opinions ”
If you ever need, or think you might need, uninformed (and often useless, if not inflammatory) opinions, cobaltblue has ‘em by the truckload.
Only on the HBB! The #1 Blogging Experience!
Don’t touch that dial!
Really, say it ain’t so cobalt
Snort. Good one, Blu
Get off my turf, bleue.
You know, I’ve been carefully watching what kind of weed killer you use on the weekends, and also keeping a journal of when the sprinkler goes on and off in the nighttime, when nobody’s around that flora of yours, Big “V”.
You could say I’m “on” to your “turf”…
If you know what I mean… (and I think you dew)
I hope this guy isn’t one of your clients:
STUART - A defiant Rodney McGill prayed for affliction upon his adversaries prior to his sentencing in Martin County Circuit Court, and turned his back on Judge Sherwood Bauer Jr. as he was handed a 20-year prison term for his part in fraudulently obtaining some $1 million in real estate loans.
“Jesus, Jesus, Jesus, for every witness called against me, I pray cancer in their lives, lupus, brain tumor, pancreatic cancer,” McGill intoned at his counsel table prior to the start of the hearing Tuesday.
McGill, the self-proclaimed pastor of New Hope Outreach Center in Jensen Beach, and his wife, Shalonda, were convicted in July on nine counts each of obtaining mortgages by false representation, first-degree grand theft and racketeering.
Only in Florida.
So much for praying for one’s enemies. Of course the guy is a phony. There’s good money to be made in megachuches (or any “nodenominational” church) where the congregation actually tithes. But I guess this guy really got greedy.
A relative used to be a member of a small non denominational church in Texas. The Pastor lived like a king. The trick of course is that it be “Non-denominational”, that way the pastor answers to no one and spends the collection as he or she sees fit.
What really killed me about her situation (the relative) was that she turned over her meager life savings ($15K) over to the “church”. I’m sure Pastor Bob put it to good use.
No doubt you live in Colorado Springs.
The Holy Rolexes.
Such a fine line between humble Priesthood, and freaking insane delusions of Godhood.
I often have a hard time discerning the difference, myself. It’s so easy to get carried away and then before you know it the forest is on fire, everyone’s painted orange, and somebody’s trampled the gardening shed again.
*regretful sigh *
This is why I avoid churches.
Same here.
I only go when i get PAID….like videotaping a wedding…
Well, maybe you just went to the wrong church, is the problem here, Mr. UnRighteous.
…Hey, where’s my torch and my moss and my orange paint? I swear, I had ‘em just a minute ago.
not me.. I avoid churches because I don’t need a middleman between me and God.
Some people do need one. Hopefully they find a good one.. one which teaches that nobody needs a middleman.
My holier than thou sire/father told me I was going to hell, because I didn’t belong to his church.
Working w/o a middle person. That works for me.
“do as I say, not as I do” doesn’t work for me. To many pastors fall and fail.
Oh.
I see and remember.
“Hopefully they find a good one…”
… who doesn’t try to do the nasty to them.
This is shocking. I attended his services for 20 years, and never noticed that he was evil and crazy. My wife Michelle never noticed either.
This is shocking.
I might add that he is a very handsome man. He’s extremely blessed. For 20-years the worship we shared, and the faithful service, ignited a passion deep within my soul.
My wife Laura never noticed a thing.
….ignited a passion deep within my soul.
My wife Laura never noticed a thing.
Well, I know I feel better now. Thanks for telling me. I was getting worried, but not anymore…
Of course there’s always exceptions to the rule, but the odds of making serious money from speclulative Florida real estate ventures consistently, and long-term, seems fairly remote.
It’s mysterious to me why people want to jump back into real estate. And especially Florida real estate.
I lived in Florida for a while, and the residents are sooooo diverse demographically ranging from conservative wingnut fundamentalists to very liberal gays and lesbians. You can literally cut the tension with a knife. Happy campers they are not.
Florida has a long history of graft and corruption. Shady characters abound. Money is flowing over the table and under the table.
Today, I just read about the state losing $266M on a Manhattan real estate venture that went sour. Not a dime of the money will be recovered. Something sure sounds rotten in Denmark. I’m so happy someone pocketed the $16M commissions.
Low wages and expensive living costs spell disaster. Home insurance costs are going up again. In future years, you’re looking at huge expenditures.
Medical costs are outlandish. As far as I know Medigap insurance, for senior citizens, is one of the highest in the nation. It’s double what it is in some states.
Hurricanes hitting this state will cause death and destruction. You’re never going to escape this consant threat. Never! It’s a reality that is not cost-friendly.
All of these negative synergies spell a place you want to avoid.
well.. no risk no gain.. but it’s no place for amateurs who can’t afford to lose.
The people who make money from the FL RE crash will take big risks at high stakes against lots of professional competition.
No, the people who will make big money will be those who can tell when most of the risk has subsided, and do so before everyone else catches on.
The risk of hurrcianes should give real estate investors pause. That’s reason enough to not sign on the dotted line.
How do people know that risk is gone? They can only know by looking around and noticing that someone is making money.
Who can that “someone” be if nobody is brave enough to buy into a very risky market?
Someone is brave enough.. the professionals. They will get in early and keep pounding until they get paid off. Then it’s full speed ahead.
Long before the everyman even realizes that risk has subsided, the pros will have gobbled up all the goodies.
How to tell? I have some ideas. That’s cuzz I’m an expert on top of being a badass. Reading/posting on this blog for, what, 3-4 years, has given me a little more insight than you might think.
ROTFLMAO!
OOH OOH she said a dirty word butthead he hehe hehehe
on top of being a badass
“…people who make money … the FL RE … take big risks at high stakes against lots of professional competition…”
Kinda like the 2005 hurricane chasing investor crowd? Do you remember those folks who used to race down to Florida to buy RE, chasing headlong into the tailwinds of hurricanes to be first in line for the opportunity? I sure remember them well
LOLOLOL!!!
Mr. McCabe,
Thank you for the interview. Do you think that this was a one wave and done shock or that serial aftershocks will tear the remaining guts out of realestate investment in Florida?
Skye
Don’t large earthquakes normally generate aftershocks (including the financial variety)?
As some of you know I work in the same area as Jack McCabe and he is right on and has been for some time. The only exception I could find with Jack on the interview is I think 18-24 months is optimistic. Here in Orlando as he noted we are dead men walking.
Some lenders don’t know they have houses empty; there are multitudes empty; they are holding houses off market to clear out inventory or they are preparing for the next two years of resets and the concommitant implosion. Jack, I would suggest that we have at least 5-6 years of extreme volatility here. Outmigration will only pick up speed and leave even more ghost towns.
I just returned from a large PUD in NE Lake county which had a ton of development over the last 5 years. I am doing some fraud investigation. Now I know this will sound amazing but I went up there to look at 7 sales that occrred in 2006-2007. Without exaggeration every third house in the 1000’s of acres PUD is vacant and not 1 of the sales I was researching has ever had occupants.
The appraisal I was researching used all the same sales from the same builder and in each case the homes sold for roughly $400,000. Once you get away from that builder all the sales are roughly $250,000. So I looked at 7 homes scattered all to hell and back that lost upon closing $1 million in aggregate. This is in the middle of nowhere.
Orlando has 10’s of thousands of such cases in the MSA.The local paper continues to tell everyone that we are coming out of it. Apparently they don’t see the same comet I do.
You and I are on the same page. These other folks seem to be on a different page. Make that a different book.
“five to six years of extreme volatility”
I wouldn’t use the term “extreme volatility” to describe a monotonic but decelerating decline.
This is likely a dead thread by now, but I agree. Just walking my dog around my Tampa neighborhood reveals empty houses on every street, with no realtor signs or lock boxes.
Modern Florida was the product of many unique circumstances all coming together at the same historical time — suburban sprawl, cheap energy, Latin American immigration, retirement communities, and the substitution of theme parks for real life experiences. I think it’s a stretch to say this state is going to bounce back in any recognizable form.
Oh and once again I have had to become mute on the subject of housing as people are now very upset if you tell them the truth. One such person calls me “Mr. Sunshine” tongue in cheek.
Oh, people have hated my housing commentary since day 1. Just look at the attitude I get from NYchk, and now from RioAmericaninBrasil. People just cannot get a handle on the f-a-c-t that their personal investments will not make them rich, even when faced with the opportunity to get out at the top. They take it so personally. Then again, if it weren’t for all their freakish responses, it wouldn’t be so fun to needle them on this blog!
Desist, you dolt!!!… You made your reading comprehension problems along with delusions of grandeur well known, there’s really no need to keep proving the point. LOL!
Here’s a f-a-c-t for you - sitting on your unemployed and underpaid butt whining and doing nothing will NOT make you rich, nor will hoping that Obama will solve all your problems.
It’s not the Boomers, or conservatives, or men, or other posters, who’re are at fault that you’re so bitter and unfulfilled. Get up your butt and do something useful for a change (like earn some money, maybe?), instead of spending all your time attacking other posters.
That “get up your butt” thing has me wondering…..
LOL!!! You’re right. It’s “get off”, isn’t it? Sorry, not a native English speaker.
Although, in Big V’s case, whether getting off her butt or getting up and going, either one would be an improvement over constant whining and attacking the “enemy”.
orry, not a native English speaker.
Well, that explains it.
Hey Freakie:
How can I be unemployed and underpaid both at the same time? Maybe the reason so many people misunderstand you is that you actually aren’t making any sense.
Oh, and you already said “Desist, you dolt” one time. Repeating yourself just makes you look like a leotard.
Oh yea, and one other thing (just for you): If it’s not useful for me to comment on this blog, then it’s not useful for you either. So quit blaming “Americans” and “blondes” for all your problems. Get out there and make some money!
Last time I saw you, you were paid a pittance (sorry). Judging by how much of your daily time you waste on this blog, it’s a safe assumption you’re now unemployed.
And salivating over Obama and bemoaning the injustice of it all, how people like you are screwed, no jobs, no security, depressed salaries, etc. - highly illuminating.
Instead of whining, looking for someone to blame, and hoping for a government solution, look at yourself. If you do have two brain cells to rub together, then go out there, in the world, and prove it.
See, NYChk? There you again, lying through your teeth. Last time you saw me, you didn’t know how much I was paid because I never told you or revealed it on this blog.
How could you tell I was unemployed? Was it because I said so on this very blog two times? Oh, no, it was because you’re so perceptive and what not.
You are so easy.
Repeating yourself just makes you look like a leotard.
Well! You just made me shoot a whole teaspoonful of beer out of my nose with that.
Well! You just made me shoot a whole teaspoonful of beer out of my nose with that.
I even brewed this precious nostril-cleansing beer myself, in my laundry room, and it’s good beer. Balanced, robust, and grainy, and no explosions of carboys or bottles for just this once.
Say, I just had a good idea! Ben should have an HBB segment where everyone learns how to brew beer. Then we can al go out and beat up blondes* and Americans! Sounds like a wholesome activity!
*Not me. I mean some other blonde, obviously.
Repeating yourself just makes you look like a leotard.
Oly. awesome catch.
I always loved leotards. Pink ones that you wear a tutu with and a wand that sprinkles fairy dust and so forth, with of course a tiara. And I bet you still have one!
Leotard.
Poifect
“How could you tell I was unemployed? Was it because I said so on this very blog two times? Oh, no, it was because you’re so perceptive and what not.”
I knew it! Yes, dear, I guessed, and guessed right… Sorry, this is not funny anymore. Nothing funny about being unemployed.
Look, Big V, there’s nothing inherently wrong with being formerly underpaid and currently unemployed. A lot of very good and worthy people go through this, and life’s not fair, especially now. However, focusing on attacking “enemy” on the blogs will not improve anyone’s circumstances, don’t you agree?
What say you, we bury the hatchet? Lets start afresh, clean slate, no mud slinging, “Him who remembers the past will lose an eye” (or whatever the English equivalent of the phrase). Deal?
Repeating yourself just makes you look like a leotard.
Wasn’t that funny? I laughed me bum off.
What a great blog, huh huh huh.
…What say you, we bury the hatchet? Lets start afresh, clean slate, no mud slinging, “Him who remembers the past will lose an eye” (or whatever the English equivalent of the phrase). Deal?
Hmmm…
Hmmm?
….I don’t think you got the English equivalent quite right, but it seems like a good sentiment anyhow.
Try not to feel so persecuted. Some of us agree with you but don’t want to wade into the cesspool to debate blog tourists (I wouldn’t call them trolls) who won’t even be here tomorrow.
“who won’t even be here tomorrow”
I for one appreciated RioAmericaninBrasil’s different perspective from the frontlines of a distant country that I knew very little about - but now I know more, thanks to him.
I’ve been reading Ben’s blog for years, and what I kept coming back for was undeniable logic, local flavor and facts, and diversity of well thought out viewpoints.
It’s not the frequency of posting that provides the most value. We’ve lost too many interesting posters (what happened?)… Some attrition is natural, and people are busy, but where’s the new blood? Could it be, the cesspool is driving them away?
You got good points. Only please, please, please don’t tell me your other name is ‘obschina’, because if you do—I’m gonna puke.
The who??? Sorry, only one name for me - and too little time to post even under this one.
Nychk,
Do not let Big V drive you away. Hang around and just ignore her.
I second that, NYchk.
Sometimes, people here get into pi$$ing matches for some reason. Ignore the bait (you keep biting the hook!), and just respond to those who are discussing the relevant topics with you.
Your perspective is always appreciated.
I met V in person and I thought I was in high school.
she hated me off the bat. I took some cute photos of her anyway!
But what if they attempt to present in a coherent manner, facts, links and sources to support their observations in countries where things might just be a bit “different”?
That was in response to Bink’s post above.
Wow, you really can’t let go can you.
BTW you did post a couple of days ago you were unemployed.
What a fabulous post!
My favorite gem was:
Q. #9. Do you think that now is a good time for investors to start buying properties? Why or why not?
A: I think now is a good time for everyone to start doing homework…
This reminds me of the last time he posted and I became carried away with joy and enthusiasm and decided to start a fan club, and we would have lots of giggling Japanese school-girls in it, because every real fan-club needs a bunch of them, and also they enhance every occasion, in my experience. I didn’t get around to it yet, it’s been a busy summer, but I can see I need to get cracking right away. There should be helmets and badges, too.
Jack! Jack McCabe! Can you sing, even a little bit? Like marching songs?
From Jack’s interview:
“Florida will always have sunshine, warm weather, beautiful beaches, and turquoise ocean waters.”
We can only hope, Jack. Those of us here in West Central Florida who care about these things, are very concerned about the legislation circling Tallahassee to allow oil drilling a mere TEN MILES off the coast. You can kiss the beautiful beaches and turquoise waters goodbye if that happens.
Whaaat?! Oil drilling ten miles off the coast?! Wow!
Good things you guys never, ever have massive hurricanes and other oil-rig-messin-up-events….
…oh, wait…
Which ten miles? The Gulf side, I guess?
I remember my only disappointment in Santa Barbara was the beach - ocean too cold for swimming, and the sand full of tiny sticky oil waste. Oil and beach should not be combined.
where deposits are rich, oil bubbles right out of cracks and holes in the undersea floor..
‘Tis true.
Which ten miles? The Gulf side, I guess?
I’m wondering if it will make any difference at all from which side the ten-miles away of oil-drilling is: Gulf of Mexico vs. Atlantic. Ten miles is not very long of a distance to hurl floating crude.
Jeeze, come to think of it, I usually sneeze a wider radius than that, and I’m not even a hurricane yet.
Florida seems to get it from both sides when it comes down to great big winds, with nothing to stop those great big winds, except a whole bunch of blown-down plywood and chubby survivors wandering around asking news-camera people ‘Who could have seen it coming?’…
I remember my only disappointment in Santa Barbara was the beach - ocean too cold for swimming, and the sand full of tiny sticky oil waste. Oil and beach should not be combined.
Nychk that is for sure.
Once in the beachs of the Carib, no reason at all to venture into the sludge that is the pacific along the west coast.
Santa Monica won’t let its lifeguards go out at times due to high toxicity of sewage sludge runoff especially after rains.
Niiiice.
“Oil and beach should not be combined.”
I’ve always liked to swim. When I wuz a pup, I used to have a recurrent nightmare about going to a beach at a cover where people swam in black, oily water, with a power plant looming in the distance. Imagine my shock when I moved to the eastern shore of Tampa Bay and saw the power plant from my nightmare not far from the “beach” (if you can call it that). And seeing people swimming downstream from that plant makes me cringe. Of course, the manatees flock to the warm water discharge from the plant during the winter.
If drilling is permitted so close to the Gulf Coast of Florida, you can kiss any tourism goodbye. It’s bad enough that people just about hack up a lung if they go near the beach during red tide.
Palmetto, I love swimming too… Which is why I’d love to move to Florida when I grow up (retire, that is). California is lovely, but the ocean is too cold. Although, who knows if there will be a Florida then, with global warming and all…
If I could get a cheap place in a neighborhood that will guaranteed not go to gangster hell, I’d do it - get a place now, convenient to the beach, move my mom there, and come and visit…
“Florida will always have sunshine, warm weather, beautiful beaches, and turquoise ocean waters.”
Just wait until global warming brings ‘more than expected’ sea level rise and ‘worse than expected’ hurricane seasons. The entire state could be awash in turquoise ocean waters soon, with beautiful underwater beaches everywhere for snorkel divers to admire whenever the hurricane winds die down enough to make it safe to go back into the water.
Don’t count on that “worse than expected” hurricane season:
Recent NOAA study:
http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2009/20090811_tropical.html
“When the researchers discounted the number of short-lived tropical storms and hurricanes and added the estimated number of missed medium- to long-lived storms to the historical hurricane data, they found no significant long-term trend in the total number of storms.
The team also noted that the finding of no increasing trend in hurricane and tropical storm counts in the Atlantic is consistent with several recent global warming simulations from high-resolution global climate model and regional downscaling models. “
Jack, thank you very much for the clarity of your thinking. I’m not in that neighborhood so don’t know the market as you do. But I’d be scared sh*tless of being stuck in a slow decline, watching my neighbors go off to the great Beach in the Sky, only to be replaced, one by one, with homies. ‘If you don’t know who the sitting duck is in the neighborhood, it’s you’ kind of thing. You are an optimist, sir.
My deepest apologies to Ben, Mysterious Flying Miser, and our guest. I didn’t mean to engage in this cat-fighting nastyness, I don’t know what came over me. I’m very sorry you had to witness this silly and fruitless fight.
I really liked the interview, especially this part: “You don’t need to pull the trigger within the next few months. This downturn and depressed prices will continue in many markets for at least the next 18 months.”
Why 18 months? What’s the driver behind the tide turning in 18 months?
How many Florida properties does Jack McCabe own that he wants to unload in eighteen months from now?
Like most here, I’ve read plenty of articles and posts by Jack, in addition to seeing him on CNBC. He never struck me as being bullish.
OTOH, I’ve heard that the banks intend to have most of their REO inventory off-loaded within the next 12-24 months. While the inventory will still be out there in some form, it seems the new owners will have a much lower cost basis, and much better staying power, as most of them have bought with cash (TONS of cash buyers out there, apparently). The next 5-10 years+ should be very interesting.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/32773345
Federal minimum wage: $7.45
National family income: $49,963.00
(Hwy slowly,… falls asleep, thinking of India & China price per square foot)
to a developer suing its attorney after 100% of its potential buyers rescinded their offers;
I’m curious about the cause of action here. Did his attorney screw up and put in an escape clause in the purchase contracts?
What a great interview. Many thank’s to Jack McCabe, who along with us bubble bloggers, has been talking the same talk since the early 2000’s, the Boom days.
A “love/hate” relationship with NAR/FAR. LOL! Me too.
I have been investing in Florida real estate for years and stopped in 2004, seeing what Mr. McCabe and all of us here saw coming.
Florida is screwed. There are some “no brainer” deals, here and there but even those require some detailed thought. We will recover, but it will be years.
Thanks, again Jack. I try to stay up with what you are doing as you definitly have you act together.