The Housing Bubble

Okay, here’s my micro-violin solo ;-).

You poor thing. I hope you prosper into greater debt - perhaps find a needier, greedier spouse?

You poor thing. I hope you prosper into greater debt - perhaps find a needier, greedier spouse?

Yeah, get going, ya piker.
You are totally sounding very UnAmerican right now. Next thing you know, you’ll be claiming you have a paid-off car and a house without even one scrap-booking room in it.

good one. skye.
Rear Window.

wolfgirl: I know what you mean. In my case, I had it all. then lost someone important to me, changed my ways, and haven’t wanted anything since. I live a very minimalist life.

As retirees, we are certainly not in “acquisition mode.” Replacement mode is more like it; as they wear out we buy replacement clothes, appliances, etc. I suspect most folks are transitioning to that mode as well.

I’m giving the kids things we have that they want while they can enjoy them. Silly to make them wait until we die. For instance this spring I gave my youngest the pearls that had been my mother’s. She got them because she was named for my mother.The others got other jewlery. I think it’s the hippie coming out in me. I just don’t want to lot of stuff to worry about.

wolfgirl .. i dunno where you stand age-wise or financially, but it seems you’re willing to consider the well being of your kids after you’re gone.
If so, know that the inheritance tax breaks put in place about 10 years ago are due to end in 2010 or 2011 and since the govt is broke, it’s unlikely they’ll be reinstated, imo.

might wanna check with an estate attorney and see how a trust or gifting or something else might insure the govt is not the major beneficiary to your estate.

wolfgirl-
Good for you. Why not share the joy in the giving and receiving while you’re alive. I don’t like death gifts personally. imho, it’s controlling from the grave. The final report card, if you will.

It didn’t hurt that my mother taught me that once you give something to someone, they can do whatever they want with it. I think she would approve of my choices though.

If so, know that the inheritance tax breaks put in place about 10 years ago are due to end in 2010 or 2011 and since the govt is broke, it’s unlikely they’ll be reinstated, imo.

Unless the law is changed, estate taxes will revert to 2001 levels with exclusions at the 2002 level( $1 million ).

When I was doing my LLM one of the profs told us that studies have shown that taxpayers with family incomes as low as $40,000 believe that they are going to be subject to the estate tax when it generally takes at least double that to have assets large enough for the risk to be even moderate that they will die with that much. Please note that this was right around 2002, so the exclusion was about the same size as it is going to revert to, barring any extension/modification of the law currently in place. Things got a little distorted with the credit bubble, but that is correcting itself as we breathe.

Also, please note that if your heirs plan to sell your stuff, they may be better off with the “pay estate tax if there is any/get an increase in basis to the value at time of death” system rather than the “no estate tax/no increase in basis/pay capital gains on the stuff you sell using original cost basis of the item” system that will exist for one year. And figuring out your parents’ cost basis in stuff like old jewelry and various antiques or artwork will be a barrel of laughs. They should have records to figure out the basis of real estate, but why would they keep records of the other stuff if they never intended to sell it?

Seeing way to many, ‘bought it 2 yrs ago 3,000 want 2,000 it is brand new, rarely sat on etc’ and yet, from experience I know-FEIK, if you don’t have a “guaranteed replacement clause” on your ins policy you will get from an ins co barely 1/4 of its original worth or even less. Fortunately I had the ‘guaranted replacement clause’ and got what it would take to replace Today, not from craigslist!

Seeing way to many “i bought it for”s rather than make me an offer, or a lowish take it price.

I’ve been casually looking at RV’s for two years - still finding few deals that get my interest. It’s amazing to search Ebay completed listings and see week-to-week that 99% of the listed vehicles I’m looking at did not sell.

I don’t think we’ll see it as long as the govt safety net is in place. The govt has removed the need to ‘give’ anything away, and IMHO this has probably provoked a backlash of overpricing. People pricing it high just to make SURE they are not ‘giving it away’.

I am looking also and I don’t see it yet either…Lots for sale but pricing is way to high…

I’m betting a lot of those toys are priced based upon how much is still owed, just like houses.

+1 Al. I’m actually in the market for just one thing: a nice used off-shore trawler in the 35′ range, with a pair of diesels. Lots of stuff on the market for pay-off, which is still twice what I would ever consider paying.

“I am looking also and I don’t see it yet either…Lots for sale but pricing is way to high…”

You must not be looking diligently enough. There’s always going to be a sea of overpriced crap, but there are killer deals interspersed within. And, they go fairly quickly. I’ve seen boats show up at a nearly 50% discount on craigslist in WA. Type in MUST SELL then filter it. We have been in a bit of a lull as people are hoping for a turnaround, but there’s still desperation.

VA Beach,

I am noticing the same thing. I theorized that its because so many more people are shopping secondhand these days that prices are holding.

People also need to consider that, just like houses, asking prices on used boats, cars, planes, ATV’s, motorcycles, etc. don’t necessarily reflect the current market. If you’re sitting at home on your computer looking at these fantasy prices, drawing conclusions that there are no deals to be had- you’ll NEVER get a good deal on what you want. You need to be out making offers. And, I’m not talking some lazy e-mail to feel out the seller. I’m talking about getting out and looking at the item in person, then making a serious cash offer. While the person might not take it initially, they could very well call back when they realize nobody is going to pay their fantasy price. CASH talks. That said, I’ve seen some insanely low prices on a few boats and vehicles, and the ad is gone with a few days. There are people that need cash immediately.

Also, I’m starting to see a few parcels of raw land show up for much, much less than what like parcels are listed for. This is a sign that there are sellers who are willing to just cut bait.

“Type in MUST SELL then filter it.”

I’ve seen some decent deals, and they do go quick, but I’ve never seen MUST SELL on the good ones. I tend to use it as a filter on what not to read. Different markets I suppose.

‘I am looking also and I don’t see it yet either…Lots for sale but pricing is way to high…’

In college, we could consign our used books at the co-op and price them up to something like 70% of the original price. Anyway, virtually all the students would put their books on consignment at the full 70% asking price. I caught on and priced my books a few dollars cheaper than the most that you could ask. Mine sold while the other ones languished on the shelf.

I think people are pricing stuff on the high side because they see others are asking the same price and think these are market acceptable. If we get higher gasoline prices and all that rot, we will see fire sales on things. Right now, I think we are in the eye of the storm, IMHO.

Grizz, I want a little boat.

You need to be out making offers. And, I’m not talking some lazy e-mail to feel out the seller. I’m talking about getting out and looking at the item in person, then making a serious cash offer.

But I can’t be. I have to work, and emergencies pop up, because a*ssho*les pop up.
How about if I pay YOU as a buyer?

…Wow! I bet I get the best bargains ever! But no eating the sellers. At least until after the deed is recorded.

You are assuming that their income has remained the same. A lot of people have less income due to lay offs, cut hours or at least cut overtime. I agree that Americans have a hard time not shopping for long periods, but they can be financially constrained, and they can reduce spending by shifting down the price ladder. Reduced spending can mean going to the mall and spending only $50 instead of $100 or more.

A lot of us here on the HBB don’t shop much at all and save a lot. But there are ways to reduce spending other than almost no shopping and reduced shopping can result in less debt rather than having a substantial wad of cash around.

“Lenders certainly have become more strict, but their livelihood is dependent on lending. They must lend to survive. Combine that with the public’s compulsion to spend every dime available, and it adds up to powerful forces rallied against any long term savings trend.”

Perhaps, but there’s still a tremendous amount of debt that needs to be paid down or written off. Lenders are still reducing credit lines which doesn’t support increased borrowing.

“You are assuming that their income has remained the same. A lot of people have less income due to lay offs, cut hours or at least cut overtime”

If you’re salaried, there is no cut hours and no lost overtime. Most people who are in the upper levels of income are salaried. For these people, who have a job, and that’s 90% of them, their income has remained the same.

Aside from manufacturing and govt employees, does anyone still get over time?

Overtime other than manufacturing and government (not a small percentage of all workers)? Yeah. Retail and construction. Clerical and some other administrative staff too. Where do you get the idea that most people who spend money in the US are exempt salaried?

Lawyers, dentists, etc. have income tied to how much business they pull in if they are in any kind of private practice. Even salaried workers have been told to take pay cuts or at least have had any bonuses cut and/or salaries frozen. A frozen salary plus an increase in your costs for your health insurance looks like a pay cut from the back end. Oh, and 401K matches are being halted all over the place. Another “pay” cut for salaried workers.

If you’re salaried, there is no cut hours and no lost overtime

There is lost profit sharing, lost bonuses, more expensive medical insurance, etc.

I know a lot of salaried people in the software industry who have had their salaries cut 10-15%.

Many salaried people have seen their income cut through furloughs. I’m required to take 8 unpaid days this year. They also see their income hit by reduced benefits like insurance.

they will soon collect a small stash of loot.. and they’re gonna spend it.

They must lend to survive. Combine that with the public’s compulsion to spend every dime available, and it adds up to powerful forces rallied against any long term savings trend.

There sure are a lot of amazing insights this morning!

I think there’s an interesting third dynamic here - advertising.

Watch for advertising to go into hyper-drive this Consumer Season. I wouldn’t be surprised if advertisers didn’t start physically assaulting people, kidnapping children and pets and holding them for ransom.

Lenders certainly have become more strict, but their livelihood is dependent on lending. Well technicaly their livelihood is dependent on being repaid with interest. And with the appreciation fairy dead, it’s probably a good idea to see whether borrowers have enough income to support debt payments.

Lavi, they already are. Coldwater Creek sticks a $30-off coupon on their catalogs, Penzey’s Spices puts a coupon for a free jar of their newest spice ($2-3, not a bad idea). And lots of places are saying “DO YOUR CHRISTMAS SHOPPING EARLY THIS YEAR!!”

If you’re salaried, there is no cut hours and no lost overtime. Most people who are in the upper levels of income are salaried. For these people, who have a job, and that’s 90% of them, their income has remained the same.

UCLA or UC’s have told the HR dept to take 21 days of furlough.. IIRC.
Salaried- HR dept

21 DAYS? That is basically a month. That is over 8% cut. Wow. That is amazing.

I would happily trade 8% of my salary for a month off. Unfortunately in the tech industry the more likely outcome is a pay cut but still having to work 12 months.

I remember talking to a friend at one of my law firms one evening over dinner in the cafeteria. He had been offered a job teaching at his old law school for a year and had decided to take it, but was worried about the loss of income (the firm was granting him a leave of absence). I told him not to worry because he would find his “needs” would lessen as he found himself with more time to pursue his own intellectual interests rather than pound through the 12+ hours of crud that we had to deal with each day. We bumped into each other when he was part way through his year at the school and he told me I had been right on target. Less misery equalled fewer acquisitions. He said he didn’t even have to think about it. It just happened….

But why can’t it be both. Spend on some things and save. Saving every last penny is the opposite extreme of spending every last penny and no better. Find a middle ground. Save some money every month, and also go treat yourself to a nice weekend at the beach. Buy a new TV when you need one instead of watching a 20 year old set but don’t buy the $3000 version, get the $800 version.

Like all else in life, find the right balance and you’ll be happy.

Wow polly and ain’t that the truth. Nothing but druggery. Constant crap. “Let’s Play A Game” “What Game Is It”?

Stamp this Fire Out, Then Stamp That Fire Out, Forever.

And you paid WHAT to get your JD??????

We really need to legalize drugs so we can close 75% of the law schools….we wont need those mass numbers of eager beavers to handle the crap and paperwork anymore.

Good idea dj. Good idea.

I had $70K in debt at the end of my JD. Plus whatever I earned over the summers and put toward tuition, books, living expenses, etc. Call it $100K total plus opportunity cost of not earning anything the other 9 months of the year. Paid it off in less than three years. Went from a $30K salary (I think, maybe it was $32K) to $80K and have never had a salary less than that since I graduated. And I am now in a job that can’t be outsourced since you must be a US citizen to have it. Worked for me. Doesn’t work that way for most people, especially these days.

The Law and making a living “Hiding the Ball” by Pierre Schlag.

Nuff said…

polly: I had a good wife working too. So that up front. Madison County, Illinois, WAS the mecca of tort litigation in the U.S. Period. This was circa 1985-1993. Then, both truth and propoganda dropped the ball.

During that interim period of prosperity, I cleared 250K a couple years, in my solo law firm. Peed all of it away too.

Now, I just left a job paying 50K, the cases suck, the jury verdicts are routinely zero on good mal cases, and good P.I .’s. Times have changed here, for me, and others.

polly: I missed a point. I had about 30K in loan debt. Mr. Filter sent my other post to Rod Sterling. It will show up later.

And I am now in a job that can’t be outsourced since you must be a US citizen to have it.

That sort of protectionism may not last forever.

Ummm, patient renter, I think Polly’s trying to tell us that she has a job with the U.S. government.

While such jobs can’t very well be outsourced, they certainly can dissappear or face pay cuts. Still, it’s about the safest place to be.

Still, it’s about the safest place to be.

It’s the safest place to be, just as long as you don’t do a Van Jones and use the aho-word to refer to members of the other political party.

In short, ya gotta play the political game.

“And I am now in a job that can’t be outsourced since you must be a US citizen to have it.”

Wouldn’t be surprised to see the laws changed to accommodate more cheap labor (/sarcasm). Nothing’s shocking anymore.

Eddie said:
But why can’t it be both. Spend on some things and save. Saving every last penny is the opposite extreme of spending every last penny and no better. Find a middle ground. Save some money every month, and also go treat yourself to a nice weekend at the beach. Buy a new TV when you need one instead of watching a 20 year old set but don’t buy the $3000 version, get the $800 version.
Like all else in life, find the right balance and you’ll be happy.

Eddie, before this post I was secretly wondering if you might possibly be a raging a*s*shole, because you’re rather tense and uncompromising in a lot of matters. But now I see that you’re okay.
Thanks.

The problem with saving for retirement in the US is that our pension system is so FUBAR that anyone with savings is going to get it taxed out of them one way or the other to pay for those who lived large and ended up penniless. To save or not to save seems rather like a no-win choice.

Several years of double digit inflation will take care of any pension funding issues.

But why can’t it be both.

Like all else in life, find the right balance and you’ll be happy.

But that isn’t with a $800 tv. vs a $3,000 one.

Moving to Ecuador for retirement. Come visit!

Mmmmmm. Cat foot….
Don’t let Oly hear you, Samster.

it’s a good thing so many believe this, makes it easier for Congress when the time comes.

For more than ten years I’ve been making the assumption that social security won’t be there for me at age 67. And I was born in 1959.

I’m worried about my oldest sister who turned 56 and earned an income only for the last nine years. She put very little into SS. She’s obese and she does strenous work as a caregiver for handicapped people. Sometimes has to use strength to support the patients I think.

The other two sisters put money into social security for over thirty years. But they saved little outside of it.

Soc Sec’s still the third-rail of politics. Even the Bushies couldn’t hand it over to the Ponzi Bros. on Wall St. As long as immigration continues, I’ve got to believe it’ll survive, though possibly in a diminished way.

Naturally, I’m biased. Also born in ‘59, have what I’m sure is a below-average 401(k) and savings for this board and a paid-for property I could unload, but without that promised 2K a month in my twilight years, I’m hosed big-time!

For the reasons you state here Bill thats why its likely that your sisters will get ss while you may not…Means testing is coming to ss…Not sure how draconian it will be but its cummun..

All snark aside, it seems to be quite *the thing* for Gen Xers, Y etc to say they’ll “never see” Social Security. Makes you feel smartly cynical, eh? Yeah just keep on saying that, and you won’t see SS. If you don’t give a rip, fine, but it will be a politically self-fulfilling prophecy if you keep up the BS pose.

I am 60 now and expect to get what I was promised in my annual Earnings Statements. Doesn’t mean I’m not preparing for the worst, either.

Just sayin.

“If you don’t give a rip, fine, but it will be a politically self-fulfilling prophecy if you keep up the BS pose.”

I have to disagree. It’s not the attitude, but the reality. Attempting to ensure SS will be around for younger generations is about as likely to succeed as hoping housing prices will go up.

The only move Gen X + can make to protect itself is to get SS watered down as much as possible as early as possible.

If you don’t give a rip, fine, but it will be a politically self-fulfilling prophecy if you keep up the BS pose.

That’s like blaming the media for falling house prices. Feel good, be happy, and your pension will be there!

I am 60 now and expect to get what I was promised in my annual Earnings Statements.

As WTEconomist has been explaining, it’s the under-50 set that will get shafted on SS.

Oh us Gen X’s will still get SS…

However it will be in the new 1,000,000,000 bills that have Obama’s mug on the front and will buy a pack of gum. The 5,000,000,000 version will have a picture of Ben Bernanke on it and you may be able to buy a Pepsi with it.

The SS benefits however will not be indexed to inflation…

Montanta,

I guess I’m just looking at the demographics and saying, SS will either be gone or worth little when I retire in 30 years.

My larger fear is that means testing will be applied. Basically then us savers that have a little bit saved up will get f**ked beyond all belief.

I fully expect this to happen. Waiting for it but expect it to happen. Also expect the entitlements to people that didn’t work to continue to increase and the taxation level to increase as well.

And you know things are bad when you have gone from eating cat food to cat foot!

Montana means that you’ve already given up instead of fighting and finding a way to keep it or create something even better.

Because you really don’t want to live in world where senior citizens don’t have a safety net.

All snark aside, it seems to be quite *the thing* for Gen Xers, Y etc to say they’ll “never see” Social Security. Makes you feel smartly cynical, eh?

‘In thing’ has nothing to do with it, and neither does being ’smartly cynical’. I simply don’t think I’m every going to see social security, is all.

I’m going to have to go with what Al said:

It’s not the attitude, but the reality. Attempting to ensure SS will be around for younger generations is about as likely to succeed as hoping housing prices will go up.

Which is why it really pi*sses me off when I see that one commercial, you know the one: showing retirees standing there planning their ”eco-friendly house in the Sonoran desert while the sycophantic youngster stands there holding blue-prints, or else the retirees surveying their new vineyard with smug satisfaction, or else in that little glider flying thingie.
I’m thinking in my head—fook the fookin’ vineyard, IIIII’m just hopin’ to avoid a retirement full of eating cat food/foots, after spending my working adult life providing eco-friendly houses, vineyards, and glider rides to Generation Entitlement.

you really don’t want to live in world where senior citizens don’t have a safety net.

That IS the world we live in, it’s just that it’s tomorrow’s seniors, not today’s, that don’t have a safety net.

That IS the world we live in, it’s just that it’s tomorrow’s seniors, not today’s, that don’t have a safety net.
xxxxx

Not so fast, and not quite yet. It will take political will and a continued shift to the left to avoid that fate. But those who throw in with Glenn Beck and John Galt will help to move things toward the ye olde ice floe retirement plan.

Oly, you aren’t ever going to see SS?

What, are you about 20yrs old or sumpin?

Paradigm shiftttttttt.

Month “12-Month Trailing Change in Consumer Credit Outstanding”

Jan-08 136,906.73
Feb-08 133,787.09
Mar-08 132,600.27
Apr-08 138,526.74
May-08 127,169.50
Jun-08 126,276.84
Jul-08 121,282.69
Aug-08 95,619.74
Sep-08 87,622.30
Oct-08 74,077.13
Nov-08 51,481.91
Dec-08 39,621.82
Jan-09 37,239.82
Feb-09 15,049.94
Mar-09 -12,816.81
Apr-09 -41,302.22
May-09 -54,468.82
Jun-09 -80,721.02
Jul-09 -109,496.44

Data source: Fed’s G.19 Total Consumer Credit Outstanding

FYI I made that graph you suggested - my post should show up at some point. I already had the data - the graph I posted was based on it - it was just presented slightly differently.

One could argue that those who spent on durable necessities (for which they paid cash,) rather than putting their money into “investments” and “accounts” will end up being the true savers of this generation.

At least they’ll have something solid and useful to pass on to their kids. Arable land, trees, tools, books, crafted woods, copperware and the like will hold their value long after our CDO’s and MBS’s have gone pfffft into the ether.

You sense, though, that modern gov’ts won’t sit on the sidelines doing token things for 10 years this time around. We’ll get WWIII a whole lot sooner, if need be! Or we’ll “borrow” 10 or 50 trillion more …

Hey alph! I was wondering where you were. I agree with what you said.

P.S. Got any ideas how we can get Oly riled up today?

Got any ideas how we can get Oly riled up today?

Way too easy. Tell her we’ve got some great new plans for development in Thurston County.

“…Got any ideas how we can get Oly riled up today? ”

Sammy’s solution (above) for ridding the neighborhood of wandering felines might be a good start.

Thanks ahansen! I”ll get to work!!!!

LeHigh: no reply button on your post, but since I don’t know much about Thurston County, I have to defer to ahansen. Thanks though for the contribution!!

Oly, does Shorty eat Cat foot? I mean, I know he eats barbed wire, cause, me an’ him ate a bunch the other day.

He was asking about you.

He also said, “I am glad you are my friend”. I said, “I am glad you are my friend too Shorty”.

‘Course, then she could get me back by going on about how banks and corporations are the mainstay of our economy, but they just need more oversight.

*outraged bellow! *

He also said, “I am glad you are my friend”. I said, “I am glad you are my friend too Shorty”.

Oh, yeah? Well, the both of you can just zip off to H-E-Doubletoothpicks just in time for a tea-party with your bff, Mr. Sa*tan! And I hope He makes you wear stupid looking hats, and serves nasty scones and then kisses you on the lips! But Shorty first, and THEN you!
So there.

*nods head in a satisfied fashion *

‘Course, then she could get me back by going on about how banks and corporations are the mainstay of our economy, but they just need more oversight.

Okay, YOU get to go to the tea-party with S*atan, as well! And get kissed on the lips after Shorty and ATE, too! Mustang PLUS attorney spittle!
I expect that oughtta teach you, Mr Sassy-Pants.

*nods head even more emphatically with satisfaction *

I love you Oly, and so does everone else here. You are sunshine, that is for sure.

everone = everyone Also I can’t speak for anyone else, but I am pretty sure everyone loves Oly.

I didn’t mean to say I Love You, (yes I did)!

I know one thing, we all should meet someday. Lot a good people on here, and it would be cool to meet, and I know from experience, we all would take off instantly.

(That story I will reserve for down the road).

Ooops. I posted and ran. Looks like you guys riled her on your own. (Thurston is an ironic name for a county where it rains all the time. Is it named after Thurston Howell III?)

nycjoe- Yeah, they’ll throw everything and the kitchen sink in its way. They already are. But we’ll still have 5 to 10 years that everyone will remember. If they can fix it fast, then more power to ‘em! I’ll believe it when I see it. WW3? Israel and Iran could be a preview/prologue.

but I am pretty sure everyone loves Oly.

Now, thanks for the nice thought but gosh I sure hope not. When everyone in one place likes me is when I know I’ve become a boring candy-a*s*s.

Hi alph!
Yeah we missed ya, but we took care of Oly without your help this time.

Don’t make it a habit though, we need your help!

Ooops. I posted and ran. Looks like you guys riled her on your own.

Man, a fourth member for Tea with the Devil. Man, it’s getting to be a crowded list. I’m going to call right now and make a reservation.

I’m going to call right now and make a reservation.

I mean for you.
Not for me.
Obviously.

Thus spake the electrician, “Take away my Klein tools, and you’ll see how effective of an electrician I am.”

The housing bubble was actually a production-driven economy - that didn’t work out so well. We produced way more stuff we needed, and look where it got us. Tons of wasted effort to produce massive empty inventory.

A good economy shouldn’t be driven solely by consumption or production. The ideal economy should be driven by an exact balance between the two, with of course some padding as necessary for in-stock inventory.

I wasn’t proposing that a consumer-driven economy was a good thing. It is what it is. You’re right actually that we can have a strong economy which is not consumer-driven, and we’re actually in violent agreement about that. I was pointing out the MSM’s folly in stating that an economic recovery would actually have to be *driven* by an increase in consumer debt.

(Which BTW is IMO no accident; the MSM is on the front lines of debt pushing.)

You know, that’s a good point. It’s like, we stopped producing most of the stuff we need, so we tried to make up for it by producing way too much of something we really didn’t that much of. Dumb.

IMO, this problem is easily solved if we even out our trade agreements to make them more “fair” towards the workers of the world.

On the contrary, Zillow is very valuable in one sense: You can see the prices of the homes that sold. Comps are the bottom line. And you can see the icons of the prices superimposed on a satelite image and how the comp homes are related to neighbor homes. You see a big difference in the zillow values and the homes that sold - chances are you can lowball neighboring homes for sale.

I think both Z’s are very misleading…On a multiple family vacation several months ago we were all sitting around checking the site for everyones home value…It had mine listed at about 60 cents on the dollar in relation to its real value…

I believe I read that Zilllow and Dataquick aren’t on the up & up about foreclosures. If it didn’t sell on the court house steps and goes back to the bank as an REO, they both use the loan amt., not the real value. What happens if there has been serial refi’s. I’m just saying, until you dig into thier stat practices, who the heck knows.

I found the comps on my old hood, $160K above the MLS sold comps. It showed my ex-home at $850K, when my neighbors home was listed in the MLS at $700K and sold for less btw. I use to calendar Zillow every two weeks, and I wasn’t impressed.

For years now I’ve been meaning to put together a tongue in cheek coffee table book called “Field Guide to the Worst of North American Residential Architecture” I’ve got a folder stuffed with photographs and ‘field notes’ from all over the country and believe me, some of them are truely, astoundingly, pound your head on a wall and ask “what the hell were they thinging”-ly awefull. Being an architect just makes the aesthetic assault all the more painfull.

LA, Miami, Long Island, New Jersey, Atlanta, Washington DC and most of the state of Texas really feature prominently

as a son of an architect I can only say: Thank You for telling it as it is!

Sign me up for three copies, and please be sure to autograph them for me.

Heck,

I’ll sign up for a couple of dozen copies - couls be a great holiday gift. Post some pis please.

I’ll try again:

Heck,

I’ll sign up for a couple of dozen copies - could be a great holiday gift. Post some pics please.

+999

Agreement numbers don’t always go up either.

+999

Excellent!

(I assume this was a purposeful tie-in with today’s date?)

I honestly don’t see what is so terrible about pricing low to spark a bidding war (maybe because I did it myself a couple of times already). Could you please elaborate so I know where I went wrong?

I agree completely in principle PB. I find that it’s usually the best way to run an ebay auction.

The problem is with realtor-managed, ad hoc “bidding wars”, that only bear passing resemblence to a legitimate auction. I would never participate in one because of my expectation that the bidding would be fraudulently manipulated, and the “auctioner” fees are way too high.

PB,

See iftheshoefits explanation.

If the starting bid is equivalent to the minimum bid, so what? OTOH, it is disingenous to have a starting bid that is significantly lower than the minimum reserve. Everyone’s time is wasted in making bids that are not acceptable to the seller.

I will note that the auction for the house two doors down from me on May 19, 2009 netted a high bid of 155k. But as of today, the most recent transfer noted in property records was on 10/25/2006 (for $362k) so it appears that the bank did not accept the bid and is still holding on to the property. Everybody’s time was wasted on that one.

“OTOH, it is disingenous to have a starting bid that is significantly lower than the minimum reserve. Everyone’s time is wasted in making bids that are not acceptable to the seller.”

Totally agreed. Over time, we have read here about periodic public auctions where no homes were sold because the minimum bid price was not actually acceptable to the seller. The same principle applies to an individual home owner trying to underprice the market — there is no point in employing this strategy if there is a high risk of only attracting offers you are unwilling to accept. I am guessing UHS often times offer such bad advice to their clients.

I think the low pricing strategy only works out if you’re willing to take it. People who are pricing lower than they think the property COULD sell for in order to get it sold FAST use this strategy, and it’s good for that purpose. It sure beats over-pricing and chasing the market down.

For clarification, I am a former member of the International Council Of Shopping Centers, not on the other side. We’ve been house shopping for a while now, and I’ve come across the strategy (So Ca). We passed.

Check your zoning and area (SF) requirements. See if an ADU (accessory dwelling unit) is something available in your area… We passed such an animal about 3 years ago. Works great for the exact reason as you list above.

Or;
Sell your homes and rent a both sides of a duplex or 2 apts side by side or something similar (depending on the cost, of course) until the market makes what you need available at a price you can’t refuse!

I haven’t been in any basements in residential buildings that don’t require stairs to get into.

Elderly have doctor’s appointments, visits to the pharmacy, coffee with friends, etc.

Plus my idea of retirement isn’t sitting in a basement 24 hours a day. Not to mention getting out in case of a fire.

i guess the word basement is ambiguous.. Common building methods depend on ground water level.. soil conditions.. frost lines.. who knows what else.. and locals have their own descriptions.

Where i grew up nothing much was built below street level. The lowest level was the garage or “basement”. If the building had something below ground, it was a “cellar”. The first “story” was the lowest living level and was about 12 feet above ground..

Sure, no steps is ideal. And if they have to use steps a chair lift or an elevator is nice.

I once priced elevators for home use. Self-installed kits started at $15,000 if i recall. A general contractor actually did the installation but any good carpenter, with the assistance of the building inspector, could do it.

agreed..

Psalm 37:21 The wicked borroweth, and payeth not again: but the righteous sheweth mercy, and giveth.

Note the “giveth” is not the same as “loaneth”.

yeah, i know.. but do you think God instructs us that one should “giveth” to someone who is wealthy enough to have a lawn to mow?

Those lawn owners either borroweth or go without, imo.

Note the “giveth” is not the same as “loaneth”.

Indeed. Didn’t JC have a bit of a beef with that?

As i recall from lots of late nights watching Pastor Arnold Murray, whom i greatly respect as a biblical scholar, the proper interpretation was the “money lenders or money-changers in the temple were actually selling very poor-quality birds, animals, and similar for sacrifice.

Lazy church goers would just pick something up from these guys due to convenience, and gave no thought to actually making any real sacrifice.

JC took offense to the whole scene, feeling that both the buyers and sellers were out of line, and started knocking heads.

Anyone who loans money without conducting due diligence about the borrower’s ability to repay under any potential future personal or economic contingencies, including an assessment of the legal implications faced by the borrower under unforeseen economic hardship, does so at his own risk. This is what banks are supposed to do, and what they abysmally failed to do in the period from 1998-2005 or so. As ye sow, shall ye reap.

Caveat creditor.

As i recall from lots of late nights watching Pastor Arnold Murray, whom i greatly respect as a biblical scholar, the proper interpretation was the “money lenders or money-changers in the temple were actually selling very poor-quality birds, animals, and similar for sacrifice.

JC took offense to the whole scene, feeling that both the buyers and sellers were out of line, and started knocking heads.

Actually the transactions literally were “money changing” - since the temple would only accept Jewish or Tyrian money - those with Greek or Roman money would have to exchange theirs for a fee, and that fee - making a profit from others’ charity - was what Jesus was so angry about.

PB.. are we not talking about a situation where the borrower CAN repay but chooses not to?

My neighbor has the money.. that’s the sticking point. If he didn’t have the money i’d gladly take the used lawnmower.. better something than nothing..

hell.. i might just let him keep the damn thing..

i won’t argue packman.. no matter the actual circumstances, it was happening in the house of God and showed a lack of proper respect. That alone is enough reason for JC to get P-O’d.
Nobody can know for sure what went down.

That said, people who use a particular interpretation just to support their own point of view about lending or borrowing are undoubtedly sinners.. REPENT!

“PB.. are we not talking about a situation where the borrower CAN repay but chooses not to?”

Yes.

- What are the legal implications of continuing to try to repay a loan which is going to place severe financial strain on your household, especially whenever you get around to selling a home for which you paid way too much, thanks to mania valuations?

- Would it make more sense to return the collateral to the lender, given that California (and any number of others) is a nonrecourse state?

- Why should households be held to higher standards of ethics than the fly-by-night lenders who handed them the unrepayable loans, then went out of business, with the former CEO now comfortably retired on a bundle of commissions from FBs who posseess unrepayable loans?

PB.. When you buy a genuine Rolex for $300 from some guy on the corner, but it proves to be a worthless fake, who’s fault is it?

“When you buy a genuine Rolex for $300 from some guy on the corner, but it proves to be a worthless fake, who’s fault is it?”

The guy who bought the Rolex was at fault, in the same manner as the lender who handed a family with $30,000 in annual income $700,000 to buy whatever kind of house they want — even the get stucco kind — deserved to lose the loaned money. In both examples, fools took actions which reflected a dearth of prudence.

…if I were a lender I’d never lend to him again…

and that’s all im saying .. others can do what they will with my blessing.

“Sympathy” is listed in the HBB Dictionary between “S#it” any “Syphilis”.

Gasp! That would make a beautiful cross-stitched sampler for my kitchen wall!

You come back any time you want Mike.

I am on your side, and I think most people here are just exploring the concept.

But, again, I cannot speak for them.

I would definately walk. People are considered brillant when they buy stocks low and sell high or short a stock down to nothing and make a ton.

YOU do not have a problem. The BANK has the problem and YOU have options. That’s what the collateral is for so they can take it back if you don’t pay. It works!

Mike, you’ll just have to take the good with bad around here.

BUT… somewhere in all the advice and replies is your answer, although you may have to cobble something together from it all to see it.

But damn… BOA and Countrywide. Ouch.

Seriously, you’ve painted yourself into a corner. If you can’t get the mortgage restructured, you’re probably going to have to walk. And why buy another house? Rent! File BK if you have to! Take that money you have and make it work for you!

Because if this RE market is anything like the Savings & Loan disaster (and it sure seems like it only on a much larger scale), it isn’t going come back for quite a “few” years.

Mike,your a educated man and I know you don’t like the issues that I brought up .
No amount of money loss can ever compare with the loss I took this year because of the greed of a health insurance company ,that resulted in the death of a loved one .
That’s when you really get screwed over in life ,not when your a
willing game-player with a crooked loan officer .(Don’t try to tell me that under penalty of perjury a income statement wasn’t required on the application . I’m a ex loan officer from years ago ,OK ).
You must of posted you post knowing that someone like
Housing Wizard was going to have the opinion that I did . I don’t know why I actually keep thinking about you ,but I do .

No amount of money loss can ever compare with the loss I took this year because of the greed of a health insurance company ,that resulted in the death of a loved one .

Gawd. So sorry about your loss, Housing wizard.

Well, after this bill is signed, say 40 days, it will be against the law to decline pre existing. Not that that will help but, oh gosh. So sorry.

desertdweller……I do hope that in the future people will be spared the misery and trauma I endured .It was like being in the trenches and having your own side shooting at you .
Thanks for what you said .

i hope that I can continue to make bad decisions that allow for 150k + living expenses+ roof over head for 1.5 decades (well we both have worked…but certainly not full time), they have really sucked. As for placing blame and taking responsibility for my actions,see above post.
bendoer and out

Now Mike ,why did you spoil everything by telling me to not point any fingers . Don’t you see this is a attempt for you to point the last finger . The finger pointing I did is deserved ,and I’m sorry if you don’t want to take me hitting you with a ruler like a man . I acknowledged that you have had some undeserved hardship ,while I have also given you the riot act for being a greedy speculator who is trying to blame others .Look dude, I’m more concerned that you get steady work so you can get back on the up and up again .

Now you are saying that you hope you can make bad decisions again that will allow you to pocket 150k . Mike ,you haven’t learn anything . My original take that you are a opportunist ,but on some level you feel bad about it was right on . Lets just close out this big debate that went on for 2 days by me saying nothing more …..

The company that my friend and his partners sold to Cisco was called Internet Engineering Group. It was based in Ann Arbor, Michigan.

Interesting - thx.

I worked next door to a company that was 2 years old, 100 employees, and was bought by Cisco for $6.7Billion (with a B). That alone was a big trigger for tons of startups around the country.

Shoes? You must be a Billy Yank then.

Wrong civil war: Yorkists vs Lancanstians. And woe betide anyone who brings anyghing made from chrome-tanned leather into camp.

Wars of the Roses reenacter? Really? How cool!

Jim, you are in the DC area, right? If you guys do stuff for spectators, let me know when. I’d love to see a little of that….

Well personally, I’m a bit burned out and on haitus. But the big local event is Marching Through Time which is April-ish at Marietta Mansion in PG county. It’s a big timeline event with Romans* and 14 century and Wars of the Roses, Pirates Privateers, Revwar, civil war WWII etc. Of course we look marvelous:
http://www.lordgreys.org/
*who look great and have a goatskin tent.

I am not frightened by what some random nitwit posts on the web. I am frightened when the nitwits are in charge.

Yep.

Though I for one do not attribute to stupidity what could otherwise be attributed to malice.

Though I for one do not attribute to stupidity what could otherwise be attributed to malice.

I think there’s more than enough of either to go around, plus they often blend together with a jumble. Into an exciting, delicious, crispy ‘Casserole Of Retar*ded Ev*il’, if you will.

Does that have the garlic topping?

What about the ones with a $350 cost basis?

oops.. missed the $11.5 billion for bounced stuff..

..In all, $27 billion in fee income flows from ..

That “In all” got me and i didn’t see they added the 11.5 later in the paragraph.
——–

27 + 20.5 + 11.5 .. roughly $59 B if all fees are included?

Looks like fees are $59 billion total, and the $1,578 paid per year should be about $2,100.

hmm.. that’s a lot of money… could fund a nice Christmas every year..

To be honest that sounds…. too high. I’m wondering if the reporters might have gotten something mixed up or are misrepresenting the data somehow.

Are there *really* 28 million people who average paying over $2,000 per year in overdrafts and late fees? I just find that really hard to believe.

(P.S. I say 28 million people, but of course it’s really 28M accounts, probably spread across 15M people or so).

The global chewing gum market sales were $23 billion in 2008 .. yesterday I saw where the USA spends some $17 billion on bottled water.

overdraft fees on a pack of gum or a 6pk of water is probably 10 or 20 times the cost of the product.

i dunno where i’m going with this.. except that these big numbers are a trip..
————–

Representative Carolyn Maloney, Democrat of New York, would go even further by requiring warnings when a debit card purchase will overdraw…

Considering that it’s a NY Times article and some NY politician is wanting to put regulations on something, they might have fudged the numbers a little bit towards the high side.

It really doesn’t take much if you’re living on the edge. Just one overdraft fee of $35 in a weeks worth of spending and purchases adds up to a stiff $1820 a year.

Figure they got a couple credit cards, a couple debit cards.. a couple kids.. a couple cars.. They write at least 5 or 6 monthly checks for utilities and what not..
They’re afraid to even look at their balances much less balance the books.

Screwing up only once might be considered a good week.

Breathtaking logic there, Jonster.

You ever notice how “Republican” kinda rhymes with “simpleton?” Get it? “Republican?” “Simpleton?” How they sort of rhyme?

I think he was being sarcastic. Though it didn’t really make sense that way either.

Me too, Lehigh.
Today’s just a sarcastic sort of day.

Me too, Lehigh.
Today’s just a sarcastic sort of day.

Re:simpleton

True story on NPR yesterday. Some guy whose kid has Down’s is on a crusade to get the word “retard” considered in the same way as that old word used to describe people of color.

I think that’s retarded.

The point was to not make sense in a sarcastic way. Sorry.

I don’t get it……..

True story on NPR yesterday. Some guy whose kid has Down’s is on a crusade to get the word “retard” considered in the same way as that old word used to describe people of color.

It’s sad that our euphemisms need euphemisms. I weep for the English language.

True story on NPR yesterday. Some guy whose kid has Down’s is on a crusade to get the word “retard” considered in the same way as that old word used to describe people of color.

Truly?! Oh, dear. And I just barely, not even two minutes ago, posted something about a ‘Casserole of Retar*ded Ev*il.’ up above in bits.
But at least I put an asterisk in the ‘reta*rded’ part—does that make me less oafish and insensitive?

does that make me less oafish and insensitive?

The lovelorn advice guy Mike Savage has stated that he is now going to use the word “leotard” instead, if that helps any.

‘Leotard’ is nice. And doubly pleasing, in that leotards so often look so retar*ded on most people.

Now that I think of it, retarded does have a different sort of verbal flavor than ‘cretin*ous’, or ‘imbe*cilic’. It sounds more willful, somehow. Like you were retar*ded on purpose, just to annoy me personally.
Say, wasn’t there at one time a tidily arranged pyramid of observable retardedness layers, used by doctors? Cre*tin, imb*ecile, mo*ron, Rea*ltor…what was at the bottom of the scale? Hmmm. I can’t remember*

*Dangit! Maybe I’m leotarded!

Would leg warmers help?

US of A = Designated Worldwide Scapegoat

Yeah, I remember sitting on a rickety metal chair drinking home-made mescal from a quart jar one night in Zihua, MX, while a bunch of Brazilians complained and discussed and dissected the gross and deliberate and general complete horribleness of the US of A.
On and on and on… eventually I stopped sipping long enough to ask one simple question: ‘Well then, why are you all here tonight, all 9 of you, on a nightly rest-stop on your way to sneak illegally over the border into the Land Of Evil?’.
I got no answer, only silence. That was fine though, because I had to go eat a mayonnaisy ear of corn on the cob from a street vendor and didn’t want to hear anymore blabber. Man, I loved those corn on the cobs! It makes me hungry just thinking about it.

that sounds like a lyric, too

If I could save fun
in a bucket
and I had me a fridge full of beer

I could anticipate doom
while praying for a boom
with a bluetooth stuck in my ear.

Here’s an oldie but goodie,

If I could save time in a bottle
The first thing that I’d like to do
Is to save every day
Till Eternity passes away
Just to spend them with you

If I could make days last forever
If words could make wishes come true
I’d save every day like a treasure and then,
Again, I would spend them with you

But there never seems to be enough time
To do the things you want to do
Once you find them
I’ve looked around enough to know
That you’re the one I want to go
Through time with

If I had a box just for wishes
And dreams that had never come true
The box would be empty
Except for the memory
Of how they were answered by you

But there never seems to be enough time
To do the things you want to do
Once you find them
I’ve looked around enough to know
That you’re the one I want to go
Through time with

-Jim Croce

You bet that was a good one SanFran. It sure was.

‘This dominance helps explain how, even after the Fed failed to foresee the greatest economic collapse since the Great Depression, the central bank has largely escaped criticism from academic economists. In the Fed’s thrall, the economists missed it, too.

“The Fed has a lock on the economics world,” says Joshua Rosner, a Wall Street analyst who correctly called the meltdown. “There is no room for other views, which I guess is why economists got it so wrong.”‘

For once, I am too disgusted to offer any comment.

I’ll offer a comment. It’s the federal government’s monopolization of higher ed that has led to this state of affairs. When academics are all getting their grant money from the same place, and when most of their employers’ funding comes, directly or indirectly, from that same place, you get the herd behavior you’re witnessing here.

Wouldn’t that constitute ‘homicidal ideation’?