Oh My
-by the Mysterious Flying Miser
From Bloomberg:
“BlackRock Inc. Chairman Laurence Fink said Obama administration programs to help homeowners stave off foreclosure may hinder the recovery of the mortgage market while benefiting banks that own second loans on the properties. ‘I am just very worried,’ Fink said yesterday in an interview in New York. ‘How do we get a vibrant securitization market back when we are doing these things in the short run that are good for the banking system and good for the homeowner but not as good as it should be?’
Fink said policies introduced this year to reduce foreclosures are flawed because they don’t require home-equity loans to be wiped out before the mortgage is modified. Instead, in a break with the intentions of contracts, the second loan’s terms may also be revised, spreading the financial loss among lenders, he said.
“‘This to me is one of the biggest issues facing American capitalism,’ Fink said. ‘There is modification going on protecting our banks, protecting their balance sheets.’ With the right types of changes, he added, ‘the homeowner is better off, America is better off, and you could say the first lien holder is better off.’
Fink, who as a First Boston Corp. executive in the 1980s helped create securities known as collateralized-mortgage obligations, will lead the world’s biggest money manager when BlackRock completes its acquisition of Barclays Global Investors later this year. The New York-based company, which will oversee about $3 trillion, has emerged as a top adviser on distressed securities to governments and financial institutions since the credit crisis started in 2007.
Fink, who also serves as BlackRock’s chief executive officer, is the highest-profile investor to call attention to potential conflicts when banks that service mortgages handle loan modifications. One concern is that many servicers, which handle billing and collection for mortgage owners, also hold home-equity loans that would lose all value in a foreclosure.
“‘I am glad that a firm such as BlackRock believes these conflicts are serious and the lack of resolution has profound implications on the financial markets and our country,’ Bill Frey, head of Greenwich Financial Services LLC, a mortgage-bond broker and investor in Greenwich, Connecticut, said in an interview yesterday. ‘We have been working with a number of very large financial institutions and many hold the view.’
“Frey is suing Bank of America over modifications the bank agreed to make to settle charges of fraudulent lending by state attorneys general against Countrywide Financial Corp., which it bought last year. He said the investors he is working with want ‘to devise strategies to enforce their contractual rights.’ He declined to identify the firms or their potential tactics.
“The Treasury Department, responding to complaints from investors, said in April that when first mortgages are modified, participating banks with second liens would also have to revise terms. A department official said in July it hadn’t completed contracts with such requirements, and some banks said they might not sign them.
“Bond investors would prefer that more homeowners had loan balances reduced rather than payment terms eased, Curtis Glovier, a managing director at New York-based Fortress Investment Group LLC, told Congress in July. Such aid for consumers whose debt is greater than the value of their homes is being blocked because other loan changes allow second mortgages to be kept ‘on the books of the financial institution as a performing asset,’ he said.
“Bernanke has been working to revive securitization. The Fed’s Term Asset-Backed Securities Loan Facility, a program under which the central bank lends to buyers of asset-backed debt, ‘has shown early success in reducing risk spreads and stimulating securitization activity,’ he said on Aug. 21. The program has helped create demand this year for $124 billion of new securities backed by debt such as automobile leases, credit cards and small-equipment loans. No private securities have been created out of new commercial or residential mortgages since early 2008.
“‘If you really want to protect the homeowner, wipe out the second lien, modify the first lien,’ Fink said.”
From Black Enterprise:
“It’s crunch time for anyone looking to buy a home and capitalize on the federal government’s first-time home buyer tax credit. November 30, the deadline by which a home purchase has to close to qualify for the credit of up to $8,000, may seem a ways off but as anyone who’s jumped through the hurdles of buying a home lately can tell you, it not as far down the road as you might think.”
From the Mysterious Flying Miser:
Ha ha!
From the New York Times:
“California’s unemployment rate in August hit its highest point in nearly 70 years, starkly underscoring how the nation’s incipient economic recovery continues to elude millions of Americans looking for work.
“While job losses continue to fall, the state’s new unemployment rate — 12.2 percent, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics — is far above the national average of 9.7 percent and places California, the nation’s most-populous state, fourth behind Michigan, Nevada and Rhode Island. Statistics kept by the state show California’s unemployment rate was 14.7 percent in 1940, said Kevin Callori, a spokesman for the California Employment Development Department.While California has convulsed under the same blows as the rest of the country over the last two years, its exposure to both the foreclosure crisis and the slowdown in construction — an industry that has fueled growth in much of the state over the last decade — has been outsized.
“Total building levels in California have fallen to $23 billion this year from $63 billion in 2005; home building this year is less than a quarter of what it was in 2005, according to the Center for Continuing Study of the California Economy. Roughly 500,000 of the state’s job losses have been in construction, finance, real estate and industries related to construction.
“‘We were at the epicenter of the housing bubble, and we are at the epicenter of the fallout,’ said Stephen Levy, senior economist and director of the center. ‘The reason we are doing worse in California than other states is construction.’
“While California has enjoyed some signs of a comeback in recent months, unemployment, which is often the last economic indicator to turn around in a protracted recession, is expected to remain high for the near future. For example, a recent study by the University of California, Los Angeles, predicted that while the state would enjoy 2 percent quarterly growth in 2010, the unemployment rate would remain above 10 percent.
“Such numbers have caused deep pain to a state overly reliant on personal income taxes to balance its budget. The near collapse of the stock market, which greatly reduced personal wealth in the state, and job losses related to the housing bust combined to sharply reduce that source of revenue.
“In July, Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger signed a budget that closed a roughly $24 billion two-year gap with extensive cuts to social services, parks and education. This has left the state with large numbers of people without jobs seeking government services, which further strained its resources and hindered potential consumer spending among laid off and furloughed government workers.
“The governor seized on California’s grim unemployment milestone Friday to make a case for his current pet projects: revising the state’s tax system, fixing its broken water system, which has contributed to unemployment in the state’s farm regions, and tapping the federal government for all he can get.
“‘The latest unemployment numbers reinforce the importance of combining federal, state and local efforts to put Californians back to work and to help all those struggling in this difficult economy,’ Mr. Schwarzenegger said. ‘Immediately addressing our challenges, which include reforming the state’s antiquated tax structure and updating our water delivery system will move the state forward and build a stronger, more diverse economy. While I am pleased to see fewer jobs lost, my administration will not rest until job growth resumes and employment returns to normal.’
“Earlier this week, Ben S. Bernanke, the Federal Reserve chairman, proclaimed that the country was emerging from its protracted recession, and doubtlessly, California is showing its own signs of recovery. In Southern California, the center of the housing bust, home sales rose 11 percent in August from a year earlier, and prices have begun to tick up as well. In addition, the state’s exports are once again growing as international economics, particularly in Asia, have begun to recover and create demand for goods, and layoffs have slowed statewide.
“‘Any economist would tell you we’re in a recovery,’ Mr. Levy said. ‘Job losses are lessening, the G.D.P. is rising, the housing market is stabilizing, and have you looked at the stock market lately? But the unemployment rate is the thing families care about. They don’t care about G.D.P. or China coming back; they care about jobs.’”
And this from the National Bureau of Economic Research, sometime in the past:
“Rising foreclosures will not cause U.S. home values to plunge, despite widespread concerns to the contrary. That’s the conclusion of a new and first-of-its-kind study, The Foreclosure-House Price Nexus: Lessons from the 2007-2008 Housing Turmoil (forthcoming as an NBER Working Paper) by Charles Calomiris, Stanley Longhofer, and William Miles. Although the authors recognize that other factors not captured by their analysis could weigh on home prices, the effects of foreclosure shocks - which promise to grow over the next several months, and which have been a source of worry to homeowners and economists - seem to be smaller than many have feared. Even under their most extreme scenario, in which foreclosure rates would substantially exceed current forecasts, the resulting average drop in home prices between the national peak in the second quarter of 2007 and the fourth quarter of 2009 would be less than 6 percent.”
“…Roughly 500,000 of the state’s job losses have been in construction, finance, real estate and industries related to construction.”
Calling Sir Greenisspent, we need a Wall Street “financial innovation”…ASAP!
Rewatched “The Corporation” last night…Carlton Brown (commodities trader)…”With Devastation…there’s “opportunity”
what about all the jobs funded by the stem cell research initiative? hmm?
There are some great interviews in that movie. The 2 DVD set contains lots of extra interview clips. Carlton Brown was fantastic in his brutal honesty regarding the mindset of a commodities trader.
What happens if the so called experts are right and this is the recovery? Is
10% unemployment here to stay?
Did you check out the CNN.com cover page this morning? Obama says jobs won’t start coming back ’till 2010. He has timed perfectly to coincide with the Ivy Zelman mortgage-reset chart. I’m telling you, the President is following my comments on this blog. He must be.
What about the urgent need for the 700 billion to immediately jump start the economy and create jobs?
“The Treasury Department, responding to complaints from investors, said in April “go suck it bitches….”
That prediction should be easily forgotten or blamed on “Republicans stalling legislation” or the universal catch all “unforeseen events”.
Might as well predict everyone’s johnson will get be 12″ long next year.
Ahhhh… drunken posting.
Structually, this economy is broken. You can create cottage industries (i.e. green jobs,etc…)all you want, but our normal isn’t going back to what was.
No way, The Housing Bubble II: Housing Bubblier will come!
I agree 100% wipe.
30 years of a flawed and failed economic theory called supply side imploded last year. 30 years of offshoring jobs, 30 years of borrow and spend government, 30 years of individuals and banks inflating the value of depreciating assets and the PTB think we’re going to resume course and set sail to prosperity? If after 30 years of the same worn out failure, fraud and empty promises hasn’t gotten us to their destination, we’ll never arrive.
Outstanding post Exe. Outstanding.
Thank you.
Amen, ex.
Aw, shucks, exeter. You’re such a pessimist! Surely 30 years of supply-side economics can be rectified by a few months of a “financial crisis,” no?
s/b “structurally”- oops
Agree with ya wipeout. I’m awaiting too.
Associated Bank, the second largest in Wisconsin, seems to have a few problems besides a lot of bad loans.
Appears nobody wants the CEO’s job
Business
Associated faces challenges in finding the right leader
By Paul Gores of the Journal Sentinel
Posted: Sept. 19, 2009
Beideman
Whoever takes over as the next chief executive of Associated Banc-Corp ought to have a successful track record of navigating through tough economic times and, if at all possible, possess an affinity for the Midwest, say investment professionals who follow the bank.
The Green Bay-based parent company of Associated Bank announced last month that Paul S. Beideman was retiring after six years on the job. Only three months earlier, Lisa B. Binder, a former Philadelphia-area colleague whom Beideman recruited to Associated, abruptly resigned as president, leaving the company without an obvious successor.
Good luck finding fresh meat…Ooops a new Fall Guy Associated
http://www.jsonline.com/business/59803427.html
ROFL
“…the resulting average drop in home prices between the national peak in the second quarter of 2007 and the fourth quarter of 2009 would be less than 6 percent.”
I remember this study when it came out and was discussed on the HBB. I do data analysis for a living and keep to as simple models as I can. All models are flawed, some are useful. The more complex ones have so many assumptions that, except in very rare cases, are not useful.
Anyone on the HBB could have told these authors that their conclusions were wrong at best and harmful at worst. Academics like to tease out the effect of X on Y, and perhaps these authors did that, but the responsible analyst should always address the overall changes in Y, too, so that policymakers don’t misinterpret the results.
Oops! Another “much worse than expected” outcome for the top academic economists to ponder for the next half century…
“The more complex ones have so many assumptions that, except in very rare cases, are not useful.”
The Achilles’ heal of complex models: Failing to realize just how many of the explanatory variables in the model are endogenous and will mutually reinforce one anothers’ move in the same direction if ‘worse than expected’ conditions arise.
Hey PB, you’d be proud re endogeneity. I was recently doing a model of the effect of scholarship offers on college retention and, in my theoretical model, wound up with an equation that had the scholarship price as a function of the probability of retention given the scholarship. I had the good sense to assume that (gasp) the probability itself P(S) might be a function of the scholarship price, so had to rework the equation to find a more realistic model. Man, anything more than a linear assumption of P(S) is damn hard to solve. Even a log is difficult to solve.
It’s very hard to find truly exogenous factors out in the real world. I suppose the flow of energy from the sun would qualify for most situations you might want to model.
With experience, finding truly erogenous factors isn’t hard at all.
Hee hee, Bill. Cute.
Hey Prof B. and Captain, are you guys saying I am gay or something?
Are you looking for a closed form solution? What if you pick an appropriate model and solve the equation numerically.
Good to see you back, CCC!
“Any economist will tell you we’re in a recovery”?
Really?
Just like any economist will tell you that house prices only go up, and the same with the stock market, and globilization is good and regulation is bad? Seems to me there are a few economists on this board who disagree.
Stocks up? Thanks to speculation fed by propaganda surrounding juvenile plants sprouting up around our economy.
House prices stabilizing? Thanks to speculation and a temporary boost from an $8k federal tax credit plus myriad state tax credits, aided by propaganda surrounding juvenile plants sprouting up around our economy.
GDP up? That’s funny. How is it we’re producing more and more, even though fewer and fewer people are actually employed? Are y’all sure the GDP just doesn’t look like it’s up because of all borrowing we’ve been doing as a country? We just took out one massive HELOC; no wonder we feel so rich!
Agree… I heard an interesting theory on the recent run up on stocks, which was that the big boys (and now most everyone else) have come to realize that holding dollars on the sidelines makes no sense because every dollar is being slowly inflated away to nothing by the Fed, so better get something now for those dollars you are holding…
“…holding dollars on the sidelines makes no sense because every dollar is being slowly inflated away to nothing by the Fed…”
That’s the obvious explanation. The less obvious explanation is that the dollar has been hammered so badly that it has overshot at this point, in a mirror image of US stocks’ overshot to the upside. Mean reversion will provide support for the dollar and low interest rates with no need for further action by the Fed. Those who bought stocks based on the green shoots story will prove the greater fools if this scenario plays out.
So what’s going up (i.e., inflationary)?
Housing prices? Rents? Food? Gasoline? Clothing?
I do the grocery shopping in our house and I can tell you our overall grocery bill is down a bit from what it was 6 months to a year ago.
Most costs are certainly down in Michigan. With a (reported) 15.9% inflation rate ( closer to 25 % if you take into considertion all of the underemployed and people who have stopped looking for work, plus people who have had their hours cut by 10-20 hours per week ), most business owners are trying desperately to attract consumers with as much value-added choices as they can, whether it be coupons, 0 % financing, lower prices (now there’s an idea), liquidation sales, value-priced 2-fer meals at restaurants, $ 5 movie tickets even on weekends before 6:00 p.m., etc. We’ve continued to spend moderately if we find some value, but only for things that enhance our lives in an economical way. As I have written before, at our age, we do spend some on pleasurable activities because pleasure is important to us. As far as granite countertops and new cars, well, nope, not spending there. I don’t see any national rush to the former levels of spending until the economy is creating good, steady jobs with good benefits, and who knows how many years that will take ? Probably 20-25 years or longer.
So what’s going up (i.e., inflationary)?
Housing prices? Rents? Food? Gasoline? Clothing?
Gold.
crispy spring rolls…the one’s from my favorite Thai place are half the size they were a month ago.
With a (reported) 15.9% inflation rate
what?? Michigan has that kind of inflation?
The dollar has a lot further to drop. So does the Dow.
We just took out one massive HELOC; no wonder we feel so rich! ??
+1 Big V
Why such glum news from California? PLENTY of green jobs here:
http://www.sacbee.com/topstories/story/2195235.html
Butcha gotta speak Spanish and ya gotta be a good shot.
And you could simply legalize it and eliminate the entire problem which prompts the question;
Why not ??
Legalize Possession (even a ton of it) but still make it a felony for selling any even a joint….that would be fair.
…legal to own in any amount, not to sell.
Ridiculous.
Not if you think about it…..
Why would the mehikans or anyone try and smuggle in pot?
I don’t care if there is 1000 plants in the forest….you cant sell it so why bother?
Take the profit out….unless In Montana makes a little extra ummmm dealing
Jim Puplava has an inflation vs. deflation debate on his show this week. Both sides make some interesting points.
We looked at a structural fixer REO yesterday, that the bank listed at $309K (2200 sq ft 4/2/one-story/no pool). From looking at the issues from the outside, looking in the windows, I think it might be a liquefaction issue. The front exterior had damage too. I could not believe what a mess that place was. $200K-$250K to fix and make the house nice, until the big one hits. Might as well flush the $ down the drain. If am right, who in their right mind would buy a liquefaction headache.( just north of L.A. County, So Ca)
Hello AW:
Do you have experience in geotechnical engineering? If not, you may wish to consult with a local geotechnical engineer about the conclusion that the damage you are looking at is caused by liquefaction.
Does the time of the damage correspond to an earthquake with sufficient magnitude to generate the liquefaction?
Differential settlements and damage could have been cause by other issues as well.
“Rising foreclosures will not cause U.S. home values to plunge, despite widespread concerns to the contrary. ”
Huh? I guess that means the houses that the banks cannot sell will be bulldozed. Kind of like farmers dumping milk to make the price of dairy products stay high?
Let’s see: Option ARM resets are on mostly jumbo loans and that means the upscale neighborhoods (e.g. Malibu, Manhattan Beach, Newport Coast, PV, La Jolla, Del Mar) are going to finally see major price drops the next two or three years…Or the foreclosed houses of these will get bulldozed! LOL
“Rising foreclosures will not cause U.S. home values to plunge, despite widespread concerns to the contrary. ”
Let’s see, rising foreclosures should mean rising supply. If price isn’t moving, then demand must be rising. Makes sense. Unemployed people need a hobby, like buying a house and then puttering around it.
I am convinced the Fed and the Federal Government, wall St. and the public at large in California has learned next to nothing from this whole episode.
The Elites want more spending, and more debt. They discourage savings by depressing interest rates, they want all savings reinvested in Wall St. and in real estate. On top of it they have a policy of off-shoring all manufacturing and cheapening wages with massive third world immigration, H1b visas and a generation of open borders and incouragement of illegal immigration for the sole porpose of cheapening wages.
The problem is it has stopped working, and something is trying to give. That “give” was in real estate prices, but now the entire force of our treasury is trying to push that back up. I guess there efforts are woking in a sick kind of way. Imagine a small increase in Cal. realestate prices when unemployment is now over 12%.
How much “treasure” are the elites willing to sacrifice to reflate the bubble?
The elites are searching for the new bubble to save us from the current recession, just like real estate saved us from the last recession and the dot-com bubble “saved” saved us from the one before.
If they can’t find one they will try to open the flood gates to even more massive immigration, we got 20 million legal and illegal immigrants in the last decade, maybe this time it will be 50 million. Demand and spending will increase, real estate demand will skyrocket, but the cost to our environment, our social fabric, and ethnic strife will be devistating.
The prices for all of this blindness, stupidity and mismanagement is getting larger and larger. We all have to understand this, because we are the only ones that can stop it.
I totally agree!Obama said his health care reform will not cover illegal immigrants, but he will give amnesty to them , which means that 20 million illegals will get all the welfare benefits plus free health care next day they will get their green card and than U.S. might need to borrow another $2 trillion from China to cover all that new expenses. Be ready to pay $8000.0 for FB s houses, plus another $20000.0 for each illegal every year. Good luck guys…
gal-
Both sides have an agenda on health care and are paid handsomely by lobbyist according to Wendell Potter, a former Cigna executive. See the PBS Bill Moyer Journal archive for the interview (online). It is just sickening. I agree with you 100% .
Greg in LA-
Regarding the H1-B, L1-B situation, it started in the 70’s, when Americans bought into the Zero Population Growth, limit your family campaign. The 3rd worlders are our replacements. I feel like an alien sometimes, even in Westlake Village. The illegal population is getting pretty sizable out here too, and then all the H-1B tech people, and Amgen H1-B’s to boot.
Wake me when this nightmare is over. RIP America (I hate to say it, but I look reality in the face.)
Men in Black 3 is coming. Shoot those illegals from Zircon.
I grew up in the SFV, and your stories about the Conejo Valley area are pretty surprising to me (been in San Diego area for over 10 years now). It sure sounds like things have changed a lot, and not for the better.
I agree that we have a major problem with illegal immigration, but it is ironic that the 3 places you mention in your post are all Spanish names!
That didn’t go unnoticed by me when I wrote it.
“I feel like an alien sometimes, even in Westlake Village. The illegal population is getting pretty sizable out here too, [...] Wake me when this nightmare is over. RIP America.”
That’s funny. The Chumash said exactly the same thing…
‘ I feel like an alien sometimes, even in Westlake Village. The illegal population is getting pretty sizable out here too, and then all the H-1B tech people, and Amgen H1-B’s to boot.’
Awaiting,
I’m pretty close to the H1-Bs, very close, and in Westlake Vlg also. Want to meet at Starbucks and talk about housing prices sometime?
Obama said his health care reform will not cover illegal immigrants, but he will give amnesty to them
When did Obama say he will give amnesty to illegal immigrants? Or is that just your personal prognostication?
Here ya go: http://washingtontimes.com/news/2009/sep/20/obamas-next-push-is-amnesty/
Any other questions? Or would you like some salt for that foot first?
from the Washington Times article:
I heard at this week’s annual talk-radio gabfest in Washington sponsored by the Federation for American Immigration Reform (FAIR), the country’s leading anti-amnesty organization.
…
Mr. Obama is an internationalist socialist. His ultimate goal is to erect a liberal ruling class: to forge a Democratic majority coalition — one that would dominate for decades. Amnesty would put millions of illegal immigrants into the voting booths — and into the welcoming arms of Democrats.
I don’t see evidence in that article that Obama is going to grant amnesty, merely an assertion.
Oh, an editorial from the Moonie Times? Yeah, good “evidence”.
More like 50 million illegals.
Great post, Greg. I couldn’t agree with you more. The illegal immigration issue had done more harm to the US in terms of “keeping the people divided and fighting among themselves”. And that’s why it is being done. Not to mention he environmental damage being wreaked is incredible.
The real enemy, however, is not the illegal immigrants, although they certainly are tough to live with. It’s some of our so-called friends and neighbors, who play along with politically correct servility, of so base a nature that they’d hand over their own children for a gang-bang and tell them to relax and enjoy it.
I know whereof I speak on this. When I wuz a pup, one of my parents forced me to go to a do-gooding suburban clean-up in Harlem, where the denizens of the hood watched laughing as folks from Westchester in their Bermuda shorts cleaned out trash from the alleys. At the block party afterwards (in which the denizens of the hood DID see fit to participate) one poor young girl was constantly getting felt up and slobbered over by some old drunk, while her mother stood watching with a nervous smile, hoping the daughter wouldn’t “start an incident” by objecting. This same mother, of course, would be in a cold fury if she caught the daughter necking at the country club dance.
Necking. Lol. Old Palmy’s age is showing.
It’s some of our so-called friends and neighbors, who play along with politically correct servility, of so base a nature that they’d hand over their own children for a gang-bang and tell them to relax and enjoy it.
You mean, like Lot?
It’s kind of like how it’s indelicate to complain or even acknowledge that your grandmother’s dog is humping your leg.
I agree about your comments regarding Illegal aliens, it is absolutely disgusting that our government continues to allow/encourage illegal immigration against the populice’s will. The cost of “growing” is a crowded dirty society that fights over finite resources. In my opinion, one goal as a country should be to allow our population to grow at a slower rate. But I do understand that allowing 10’s of millions of illegal’s cross is great for construction and housing, and that seems to be the most important thing…:(
Fecaltime!
I’ve recently noticed that some stalled housing developments are back to building. These same subdivisions are getting hammered with foreclosures. Who’s building them? Illegal aliens. Rich, white builders, and their illegal aliens. Disgusting.
Rich, white builders, and their illegal aliens
Texas the last 9 years in a nutshell
California, too. Big-time!
Construction jobs are up in Texas according to the BLS.
Must be a lot have moved back and only citizens are remaining.
Also Arizona.
And Colorado, until the bust hit. I haven’t seen a new house under construction in Loveland for over a year.
Well frankly, I think once a subdivision is started and infrastructure is laid, the subdivision should be completed, it should not be allowed to rot. If the orginal builder goes bankrupt the second builder can pick up the pieces in finish it, assuming it is financially viable at a greatly reduced cost.
Regarding who is building the houses, builders should be fined/run out of business for intentionally violating law regarding hiring non-citizens. Why has this not been occuring?? In my opinion, it is corruption throughout our govt starting at the very top.
It is absolutely disgusting we have allowed this to carry on for as long as we have.
Fecaltime!
Pelosi and her buddies in the aclu, and Holder, of course don’t want EVerify so that employers can verify the illegals are legal. Guess why? Build the fence and deport them !
“Build the fence and deport them !”
A fence? Heck, you need an actuall wall, something on the order of the Great Wall of China, which was built for the same purpose, back in the day.
“How much “treasure” are the elites willing to sacrifice to reflate the bubble?”
They’ll sacrifice everything we have.
Greg in LA-
Profound comments, btw. You’re spot on, but I don’t see a way the populace can do anything. Everything is well planned and is being executed by the ptb. Evidently, you have more hope than I do.
“I don’t see a way the populace can do anything.”
You have to howl, wipeout. You have to bombard your representatives, you have to speak out to your friends and neighbors and you have to object, object, object. And you have to characterize the people allowing it as the craven cowards they are.
palmetto & HBBers-
You’re right, and the wierd thing is, people I know who are aware of our clean water shortage, are in favor the illegal’s journey for a better life. In just natural resources alone it’s a disaster, let alone the monetary and social cost.
I had dead mice left in my car door handles from speaking out about the illegals. I then got a note on my front door (and it wasn’t a good neighbor thank you). Civilized discourse, not.
One day, I got kicked out of our local Repuke headqtrs for speaking up about the illegals. That’s the day I became an Independent!
Mom’s car was parked in one of those wide handicapped spots, 3 ft on either side.. well one side keeps getting whacked for the past 8 yrs. She sports an sticker on her car window. Slashed through a W. Gee, I wonder why her car keeps getting massively sideswiped, parked?
Whew.
In the past not too many Americans and legal residents were unaware of the happenings in Congress. Today instant contact is a way of life for anybody who has access to a computer. In 1986 other than the paper media, tv and radio gave any evidence of the Immigration Reform package and that was surely limited? The US population was isolated from the truth that was to befall them, after the Simpson/Mazzoli bill passed because the politicians hid the truth? 2 million guest workers were to be given citizenship, but the process became full of corruption and 5.3 million was eventually approved for blanket AMNESTY. Expeditiously the guest workers moved away from agriculture and joined the mainstream of workers. BOTH POLITICAL PARTIES ARE EQUALLY TO TAKE BLAME FOR THE ILLEGAL IMMIGRATION OCCUPATION OF OUR NATION.
The people who picked the fruit and vegetables in the farms vanished, so that meant more floods of illegal workers to take the empty places. Today Obama wants to pass another miserable immigration reform bill, even though the main author Edward Kennedy insisted there would never be another path to citizenship. Millions of honest voter don’t believe the rhetoric or lies that spill from the politicians anymore. Again behind closed drapes they have been having a secret summit, with little or no participation of the press or pro-sovereignty groups. When lawmakers declare no more Immigration reform than they better stick to their words. Both parties contain corrupt legislators who care nothing for the working man/women and are ready to present in the House and Senate a new immigration reform bill.
287 G, was a lifeline to train local police authorities to arrest and question people, but that may have seen the end of days. The no-match letter may also have been sold out, as well as ICE raids to pander to extremist groups such as La Raza. A recently released report by the Labor Department’s Bureau of Labor Statistics shows that 42 states lost jobs last month with Indiana alone losing 9,500 jobs! With 15 million Americans out of work and most states continuing to lose jobs on a monthly basis, it is completely obnoxious that the United States hands out about 100,000 green cards each month! THIS IS NOT RACISM THIS IS ABOUT SURVIVAL!
President Obama is holding the reins, this time and already confusing the American people over health care. Joe Wilson was right to some degree about no mechanism in the health care package to identify illegal aliens. After the fact and bombarded by livid Americans they added amendments that would cut off all access. That why our legislators need to amplify the verification procedures, to remove foreign nationals from cheating the system.
I trust neither Sen. Harry Reid, House speaker Pelosi and all those who fumble along behind the major conspirators. Harry Reid’s Nevada has hospitals in dire need of funds, because of the massive illegal alien population there. The same with California that’s having release 20.000 prison inmates, because they were on the edge of bankruptcy, owing to indifferent assembly in Sacramento who allowed unfettered benefits to millions of illegal immigrant families feeding out of the waning state money trough.The businesses that draw them here, pay nothing to their living conditions. Those expenses are left to the taxpayers. Call your Senator or Representative at 202-224-3121 and demand no more Immigration Reform. If you want real facts find out about the corruption and other sinister issues at NUMBERSUSA & JUDICIAL WATCH. Only your irate voices will curtail another AMNESTY travesty and stop millions more arriving illegally in America?
Certainly I would like a Public option for some family members, but not if illegal aliens can benefit from US taxpayers paying the bill?
My particular congress liar/indifferent human is Mary Bono who only caters to major donors and developers. To contact her is to waste ones time. Her only concern is the continually cater/blather on to the elites,lobbyists. Her current project that she is paving the way for, is to allow a major prison to be built at the entrance to Palm Springs. Instead of looking at windmills or desert or ?, we will be greeted by a major concrete institution with barbed wire everywhere.
My question would be, why not Blythe? I am not a NIMBY person, but seriously, this is a gorgeous valley and Mary Bono Mack is being paid off.
Mark my words.
If people would indeed constantly contact their congress liar person to say reconstruct the immigration bills, and penalizing corporations for offshoring our jobs and hiring illegals then maybe something would change. I know of many who have no idea who their elected representatives are and don’t care. Lazy americans.
DD are you desertdweller?
We need another Repub to run against Mary Bono in the primary.She stabbed all her constituents in the back in that she voted for the carbon tax bill after getting a payoff from Pelosi.
Call her daily. Have your family and friends call. They are not responsive to us but give them hell for it. Don’t let them off so easy. Give them hell.
I call my Congresscritters. Especially when I’m informed of a news item where an American citizen has been mugged, shot at, raped or murdered (in which I include drunk driving accidents) by an illegal immigrant. And I lay it squarely at the door of the critter. I politely state that by not speaking out against the issue, they effectively abetted the crime.
One staffer responded to the statement with a high-pitched squeal.
To be honest, I voted for Obama and I have nothing against any illegal person who wants to live in this country. It is natural to try to improve your life. I came to U.S myself as a refugee 22 years ago and I thank everybody of you for letting me into this country, but I think that everything should be planned and should not be chaotic like the current economy in this country. All those “great economists” created artificial “Free Market” that reminds me Soviet Union and now Mr. Bernanke and Company are continuing to ruin whats left of the “Free Market”. Who won the Cold War, Russians or Americans? What is happening here? Anybody cares?
We do not have the resources, nor ever will we, to take in every single individual who wants to come here. That’s why we have a LEGAL path to citizenship. I don’t blame anyone for wanting to live here, but I do fault them for taking it upon themselves to enter this country ILLEGALLY. I have the utmost respect for those who come in the right way.
What is legal? You might think something permitted by laws. What is the law then? It is pretty much just what you(who is here slightly ahead in time) say in a way. What make what you say is more important or legal than what those so called illegal immigrants say? I do not have the answer, do you?
No, I don’t have an answer, because I don’t understand your question.
don’t understand your question
me either
What Grizzly says is correct. Still, I’m sure most Americans would be much more open to helping people better their lives in their own country (by allocating more money to poorer countries to be used only for infrastructure and other improvements that help their citizens), instead of us trying to carry the burden over here.
Awaiting Wipeout, I am sorry to here about the aggressive retaliation you recieved. It makes me sick to hear it. How dare someone come to this country and do violence against an American.
I am normally a cautiously sceptical person, but I do feel hopefull the immigration problem can improve. It is happening despite the fact that people fighting this problem are up against the most powerfull groups in this country.
Case in point: in 2007 Bush, McCain, Clinton, Obama, the Republican and Democratic party, the US Chamber of Commerce, Unions, construction, agriculture and banking lobbyists, Walmart, plus the Hispanic groups like LaRaza all joined forces to pass amnesty, and increase legal immigration plus bring in new immigranrs called “guest workers” it was called “Comprehensive immigration reform”. We defeated it and they tried twice. Just before the vote in the Senate the congressional call center crashed by the weight of millions of Americans desperately calling to save their country.
Though not over, It is a tough battle against some of the most powerfull forces in our country. The business, and ethnic lobbies plus the traitorous politicians that pander to them, against basically an unorganized, unrepresented but near unanimous public sentiment, that feels it is unfair to reward illigal aliens and force down the wages of millions of Americans by having American workers compete with cheap foreign labor. Not to mention how Americans have to also compete for housing , school, and hospitals .
In a nut shell the profits of illigal immigration are privatized and the cost socialized.
Despite this If Americans understand these facts, and understand how we as a country are negatively impacted, the answear becomes clear and I do believe positive measures will be made, if not demanded.
Personally I am involved to help protect the futures of my two children. When I am old I want them to know that I did everything I could to stop this, and keep this country and California from devolving into a third world sewer.
Greg in LA
I too, was part of the McCain/Kennedy Immigration Bill backlash. My fax, email, and phone were on overdrive. Thank you for not being a passive complainer too.
When we moved to east Ventura county in 1983 from the SFV, it was a lovely, educated American area. Now it is infested with crime, spanish speaking illegals, & H & L 1-B’s (they take jobs Americans should get if qualified). When you’re up against such vast financial resources, it’s hard to stay the course of fighting for what’s right and ours.
Thanks for making me look into my soul and say “hey girl, it’s not about you, it’s about future generations”. I appreciate that.
The CRA Scam and its Defenders
Mises Daily by Thomas J. DiLorenzo | Posted on 4/30/2008 12:00:00 AM
American Prospect
“Liberal” economists are overjoyed by the bursting of the housing bubble, for it provides them with what they believe is another “market failure” story. “Most analysts see the sub-prime crisis as a market failure,” Robert Gordon gleefully declared in the April 7 online edition of The American Prospect magazine, edited by Robert Kuttner.
Gordon does not define what an “analyst” is, and does not cite any survey to support his claim. One suspects that his opinion is based on an informal survey of his like-minded, left-wing friends.
Gordon is a defender of the federal government’s 1977 Community Reinvestment Act (CRA) under which the Fed and other financial regulators have pressured/extorted banks into making more loans to less-than-creditworthy borrowers than they would normally be willing to risk. As such, Gordon believes in the following propositions:
1. runaway greed (”market failure”) on the part of lenders is the cause of the subprime crisis;
2. these same greedy lenders routinely ignore billions of dollars in potential profits in lower-income communities because of their systemic racism, stupidity, or both — hence the need for the CRA; and
3. no government agency, especially not the Fed, had anything to do with either the creation or bursting of the housing market bubble and the subprime crisis.
…
CRA was passed back in 1977?
I have mixed feelings about it. I like the idea of mixed race neighborhoods. I tend to date outside my race. My best girlfriend ever was Muslim, Arabic, and threw multicultural parties, which were fun! I wish we can become a capitalist version of Cuba, where multi-race neighborhoods are no issue.
I just hate government favoring any race. The only way to take out favoritism is simply by removing affirmative action, CRA, and Fair Housing Act laws.
So how about a puzzle for everyone of you?
I went looking for houses, and came back extremely disappointed. Houses apparently come in two varieties nowadays:
1. Very high price. Structurally and looks decent, no mold, diseased or need major work. At prices that (doen’t make sense with the local’s income ratio and outlook) probably will sit and not be sold.
2. Moderately high price. This includes foreclosures and REOs. Many times absolutely falling apart, and sometimes “just” molded everywhere. Rotting by the day as they sit, and they will sit and decline prices “slowly” (But their values are declining even more due to more and more work needing to be done)
So… Apparently, if more and more people in #1 cannot sell their houses, the foreclosure process and/or a combination of cash crunch means they won’t repair the house, don’t fix the roof, let leaks be, etc…
Modern houses are not like brick or concrete buildings in in the past or elsewhere — they can seriously rot.
So as a buyer, there’s no incentive to buy now — and even worse (if you think out the whole process) to buy later! The homes of tomorrow will be today’s rot lot, plus more time to rot!
Nobody has the inclination to do a good job maintaining their homes anymore, and as people get neg-equity, foreclose or it gets REO’ed, there’s even less motivation.
So as someone who didn’t participate in the boom, I’m now screwed in ways not immediately obvious.
Who else has this experience?
Half of the housing stock in Boston is heading to zero (completely disgusting). If you want a nice house, you have to move to the sun belt.
Any dwelling someone might actually consider living in is wildly overpriced.
You can show me all the graphs, recession ending charts, etc all you want. The fact of the matter still is, looking at the stock of homes out there.
There’s’s rot, rotter, rottest to choose from, and this trend doesn’t seem to be ending anytime soon; esp as people run out of resources to maintain their properties.
What I’m seeing today, tells me people ran out of money to maintain their houses at least 2-3 years ago… And there’s no reason to believe the stock (of supply) will get better in 2014 or more.
Am I getting a glimpse into America’s future, where we’ll be a nation living in squalor?
So, for everyone who’re bidding their time and waiting for the nice house price crash — this means there’s nothing to celebrate and nothing to wait for.
For the future consists of a lot of foreclosed homes at “crashed” prices, but at disgusting living conditions.
Wow, this is an angle of the housing bubble that completely escaped me until now. You’re not going to get a decent house at a decent price. It’s going to be a disgusting house at a low price, or still a nice house at a very expensive price.
A lot of “waiting” folks like me is going to be disappointed.
my experience in the northern virginia area is similar to yours…BUT rents are still much cheaper.
i will continue to rent until it is cheaper to buy a decent house.
I am noticing the same, HC. I see many overpriced older houses in rough shape advertised with the notation, “the value is in the land”. My first thought is always, that, as a seller, you must know you’re overpriced if you feel the need to spell that out.
Modern houses are not like brick or concrete buildings in in the past or elsewhere — they can seriously rot.
They build most buildings and houses in Rio as strong as the commercial concrete buildings I worked on in my youth. Steel reinforced concrete and brick, block and cement. Wood rots here and the type that doesn’t is expensive. Some pine, forming lumber was being eaten by termites after a week. Welcome to the Jungle…
I wonder if they want all those foreclosed rotting homes to reduce supply.
As for unemployment, long term is a little different from short term.
If people won’t lend us money to buy their stuff anymore, we aren’t going to have blue jeans unless someone here sews them. And they will cost $100.
If the U.S. isn’t the land of opportunity anymore, you won’t have as many immigrants to bus your table. So that dinner out will cost $40.
And China and India will outbid us for oil, so maybe we’ll need that expensive solar electricity after all.
On the one hand, the need for more workers to do jobs that we used to run up debts to pay other people to do will increase the demand for labor at the same time as more people are reaching what had been retirement age.
On the other hand, fewer people will be able to afford to retire, and less stuff will be bought.
If people won’t lend us money to buy their stuff anymore, we aren’t going to have blue jeans unless someone here sews them. And they will cost $100.
Baloney. It wasn’t that long ago that Wrangler made their jeans in the USA. They are no cheaper now than back then. Ditto socks and underwear. The only thing that changed was the profit margins for Hane, Wrangler, etc.
Baloney. It wasn’t that long ago that Wrangler made their jeans in the USA. They are no cheaper now than back then. Ditto socks and underwear. The only thing that changed was the profit margins for Hane, Wrangler, etc.
+positive infinity
Ditto.
Wrangler Jeans and Maverick Jeans were the same pants from the same company.
The day shift sowed a “W” on the butt for pockets and evening shift reversed it and sowed a “M” on them.
mikey knows these things
but then this should happen accoding to EJ over at itulip.com…which will help alleviate some of what you metion…
“Here the difference between the management decision process in a corporation versus in a plutocracy becomes apparent and the analogy breaks down. If the USA were a corporation instead of a country, new management could evaluate the housing industry as a line of business, take a 50% haircut on assets and restructure the debt down to half and be done with it. One of the benefits would be a 50% reduction in rents and mortgage payments. This would act as a gigantic tax cut on the economy, freeing household income to be spent on other things and providing a huge boost to consumer spending. I believe this would outweigh the negative wealth effects.
You hear a lot of talk about tax cuts to stimulate the economy but no one talks about a debt cut, but a debt cut will free far more household and business cash flow then cutting taxes. That will never happen because the banks need the flow of mortgage payments to survive, and in case you hadn’t noticed the banks have political influence in Congress that they are not giving up. So the government subsidizes mortgages to try to re-inflate housing prices.” Eric Janszen - http://www.itulip.com
another comment from EJ on the same point.
“We need to undo the impact of decades of government subsidies of the housing industry. But I don’t see it happening. Where will the political will come from to do it when millions of home owners are complicit in the scheme? Who wants to see the price of their home fall 70%? But that’s what needs to happen to lower rents and mortgage payments enough to make U.S. labor competitive in the world. Housing costs are a major reason why a worker in India can live on $2,000 a year for the same job that pays $30,000 a year here that you can’t live on.” Eric Janszen - http://www.itulip.com
[quote]He said the investors he is working with want ‘to devise strategies to enforce their contractual rights.’ [/quote]
That’s it. Somebody who bought a few million in CDOs isn’t just going to roll over and say “oh well.” True, that person is screwed anyway, but the law is on their side, not the FBs.
Only FBs want cram-downs. Non-FBs want to see the FBs take it in the shorts.
You happen to be 1,000% correct. Letting the market drop to actual correct price levels would cause a ton of pain for some ( bankers/bondholders) and a ton of benefit for many ( the rest of us).
Can someone now explain to me why the many are subsidizing the some via these Gov’t programs?
I think the good guys, who created and own so called Federal Reserves ( Rothschild s and Rockefeller s…) need to profit of their business…We live in Capitalism not in Democracy. Who owns the Federal Reserve they are the real LEGAL RESIDENTS of the World, the rest of us are SLAVES…
I would like to thank all of you for many many hours of enjoyment. Most of all thank you Ben for providing the medium!! I look forward to another meeting of minds - maybe in Flagstaff this time?
People in this country don’t want to work in fields or factories. Too bad they’re all taught they should become college graduates and get an easy desk job–not enough of those to go around. They’ll end up unemployed and in debt.
Boy is this a bunch of absolute horsesh!t.
“People in this country don’t want to work in fields or factories.”
I think they will; the issue is “living wages.”
Living wages? How about 2nd and 3rd shift work?
It’s staggering how much we force people to work 9-5 M-F and waste so much of our resources ( we use DOUBLE or more electricity at 4pm then at 4 am) and create so much stress in our lives.
I have been begging people to listen to a simple solution, Prime time pricing…all businesses do it why not government?
If you want to open a business in town and all your employees work 9-5 during the week you get ZERO tax breaks…you are adding to the traffic jams and crowded mass transit systems. So the more people you hire full time with health insurance on 2nd 3rd shift holidays and weekend the more your tax breaks should be.
Ask me to DJ your wedding in June its top dollar but in January its 1/2 price.
It makes a lot of sense economically but those night and late shifts are not for everybody. I worked one for awhile and hated it
Well I worked for radio and TV stations for years ad they are 24/7/365 somebody has to be there.
So yes 2nd shift and overnights are hard, but i loved getting days off during the week….almost nobody at the beach at noon time…and plenty of parking yeah!