Bits Bucket For October 6, 2009
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The Housing Bubble
Examining the home price boom and its effect on owners, lenders, regulators, realtors and the economy as a whole.
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Good morning all … just reading about NASA’s LCROSS mission to bomb the moon.
The mailing list from the hacker space in DC was talking about getting tickets to some event at NASA GSFC where you get to watch it. Sounded neat.
The plume should be visible all over the US depending on cloud cover.
And there is always NASA tv.
In the east though it’s at 7:30 AM - after sunrise - I don’t think it’ll be visible so much even through telescope right?
We are having a party to observe the mission and landing. Fingers crossed that this goes as planned. A lot of personnel work and sacrifice went into this.
Hopefully we find water. Idea is that if there is enough water then we can make a scientific base on the moon.
Dr Sally Ride will be there for the ceremony. Couple of successful launches this month.
Cool, cool, cool. For a change no fog will cover the moon. I can set up my telescope out in the back yard and watch the action.
Woohoo!!!!
just reading about NASA’s LCROSS mission to bomb the moon.
It’s about time. Those moon-people have been making me nervous for years.
Hahahaah! Thanks!
Yeah, them Moonies is CRAZY!
Bloomberg: Equities surge on accidental moon split. Bernanke calms jitters with assurance that moon fracture is contained.
A little perspective. Now that the tax records are in, and the number of firms starting and closing in early 2009 was worse than the model, BLS plans to adjust employment for the early months of the year by 800,000-plus.
Does that mean there is no need for adjustment for the rest of 2009? No, it means the tax records are not in.
The fact that Social Security has gone into the red based on lower payroll taxes collected and the number forcibly retired my be an indicator here.
From Phoenix
Extreme Makeover’ left Gilbert family with unforeseen expenses
88 commentsby Richard Ruelas - Oct. 3, 2009 06:09 PM
The Arizona Republic
Among the amenities created during the extreme makeover of the Okvath family home in Gilbert was a finely crafted storybook of young Kassandra Okvath and her battle with cancer. Its pages cast the 9-year-old girl as a butterfly who was losing color on her wings. While away at a healing place, the story went, some of her friends spruced up her tree, making it as beautiful as she would be when she got better.
The story mirrored what happened on a 2005 episode of “Extreme Makeover: Home Edition.” The popular ABC show follows a formula: It takes a hard-luck family who requests help and builds it a dream house in five days.
Kassandra’s letter to producers was decidedly different: She wanted the show to make over the cancer ward in Tucson where she had been a patient. The producers, touched by her caring nature, decided to also surprise the family with a two-story mansion.
The task used 1,600 contractors and volunteers and captured the attention of the state. An estimated 4,000 people stood in the winter rain and cold for the unveiling of the home. Cameras captured the Okvaths crying and smiling, giving the show a happy ending.
But the fairy tale soon turned grim.
The next chapters had the family straining under the weight of unexpected utility and tax bills. The story would include dead dogs, vandalism and a foreclosure proceeding that brought the dream home within hours of being auctioned off on the steps of the Maricopa County Courthouse.
Four years later, the Okvaths find themselves scrambling for cash. Some months, they pick which bills to pay. Their cellular phones and cable television have been turned off at various times this year.
The Okvaths put the home up for sale this past summer and are hoping to get a clean start, possibly in another state.
“It’s been frustrating,” said Nichol Okvath, Kassandra’s mother. “When the cameras go off, it’s just a different . . . ” She interrupted herself.
“Everybody thinks everything’s happily ever after.”
—————————————
The Okvaths put the house on the market in 2007. They listed it at $1.8 million, then dropped it to $1.4 million before taking it off the market.
The Okvaths put the home up for sale again last August, asking $1.3 million. They lowered the price Friday to $800,000. That figure still allows them to pay back their loan and buy another home free and clear. They also might rent, Nichol said.
Please don’t post entire articles.
Extreme Makeover’ left Gilbert family with unforeseen expenses
Picked to death already around here:
http://www.thehousingbubbleblog.com/?p=5613#comment-1670809
http://www.thehousingbubbleblog.com/?p=5616#comment-1671588
http://www.thehousingbubbleblog.com/?p=5619#comment-1672390
(From your friendly, neighborhood, bubble archivist - sans sweater.)
My brother just helped someone film an audition tape for Extreme Makeover. While I think they are a deserving family, I cautioned my bro about the family possibly being unable to afford the new home after the show. He said he’d never thought of that. He doesn’t read the HBB.
I read the article. This family is something else.
From TFA:
“When ABC picked them to be on the show, the Okvaths were leasing the original home because they didn’t want Kassandra to spend what could have been her final days in an apartment.
“We wanted her to know what having a home is,” Nichol said”
Want to hear some good news? The girl made a recovery! She’s fine. They could have sold that home and moved back into something they could afford. But, of course, they didn’t.
And even though the mortgage was subsidized by the home builder, they still went bust!
Good point W T…
Another byproduct of giving jobs to other Countries is less collection of
contributions to American systems . Another thing I worry about is that
company after company will be forced into BK or chosen relocations and set up shop in
foreign Countries ,who would no doubt welcome it .
I remember when Ford asked for taxpayer bail-out money ,ended up not taking it ,and quickly started making plans to build a car factory in Mexico . At least the Mexicans won’t have to sneak across the borders
to get previous American jobs anymore ,will they .
Just as the financial system wouldn’t stop until they had destroyed
the good reputation of the American financial systems ,the power brokers won’t stop until that have destroyed ever conceivable way in which Americans made a living in this Country . What does it matter ,emerging markets can buy their crap .
FWIW, Ford has been building cars in Mexico for over 50 years.
But were they always exported to America or were they sold in Mexico?
At first mostly sold in Mexico, but since the 80’s they have been exported as well.
So that’s how Ford stayed in business.
I am starting to wonder if our capitalistic system, based on not just profit, but on increasing profit, has simply run out of cards to play. It used to be that all these strategies were little tricks to increase profit; not they employ those tricks to survive.
Companies have merged and acquired into monopolies. They have laid off enough workers to where nobody has a job money to buy anybody else’s products. They have outsourced up the food chain until managment realized that the only remaining cost-cut in that line is to outsource themselves. They relied on increasing productivity, except that productivity has a ceiling, unless another Internet comes along to save us. They speculated for extra cash until it blew up the latest bubble. They employ accounting tricks to kick the can down the road — until they run out of road. They lobby the government for funds (screaming “takeover!” the entire time) until even the bleeding-heart lib close the spigot. There is a parallel spiral happening in families too. What’s left?
Hold hands and hit the gas ala Thelma and Louise?
That’s what unregulated capitalism does. It races to the bottom until you get a big bust. That’s normal. Then you rebuild.
really … where is there an example of unregulated capitalism? we have a highly regulated market currently. maybe regulations not enforced or maybe it is the highly regulated markets that allows and urges the race towards a big bust?
“…where is there an example of unregulated capitalism?”
I have asked your question here many times, maldonash. The consensus (?) seems to be that America in the 1800’s represents the closest we have come to ‘unregulated capitalism’. Of course we had many catastrophic and long-lasting economic busts during that same period, so apparently either ‘unregulated capitalism’ is no panacea, or we haven’t found the right example yet (any new offers?), or ‘unregulated capitalism’ is more a theoretical idea, one to be tossed around at academic cocktail parties, than anything ever possible or plausible in the real world?
or ‘unregulated capitalism’ is more a theoretical idea, one to be tossed around at academic cocktail parties, than anything ever possible or plausible in the real world?
Or perhaps the regulation, or appearance of regulation, is the problem?
Let’s at least be fair with the possible scenarios. No one has the ‘answer’…but it’s not fair to say that somehow unregulated capitalism has failed, as that’s certainly not what we’ve had in the past 30 years..or even 100 years.
where is there an example of unregulated capitalism?
Ferriginar? Oh, wait, they have all those pesky rules of acquisistion. Never mind.
Great post oxide ,great summary .
What is left is to realize that they are nuts ,but powerful ,just as they were with the CDO’s and lending policies .It blows me away that they just came up with new risk models so they could sell that
high risk loan paper that should of been rated D-on its merits .Big business just wants their cake and eat it to . They want to tear apart the entire American system and act like the World is their oyster . Make no mistake that their objective is humane or even
seeking efficient operations .
What’s left?
A somewhat simpler life, a lower standard of living, a lot of angry people but some happier ones too?
but some happier ones too?
I’m already one of this kind. I never did get doggie spas and scrapbooking shoppes and paving over the world. All I know is—this has come to a screeching halt.
I’m happy.
Rio ……It’s mind-bending to imagine how it could play out . The effect can be very different when you have a middle class that is use to having things ,and all of a sudden they are living
in tent cities . Very different than someone raised on a rice patty who has never known a better standard of living .
Sure ,some of the fluff that this society bought into they can do without ,but basic needs are being threatened here ,not just
fluff .
The effect can be very different when you have a middle class that is use to having things ,and all of a sudden they are living
in tent cities . Very different than someone raised on a rice patty who has never known a better standard of living .
Sure ,some of the fluff that this society bought into they can do without ,but basic needs are being threatened here ,not just
fluff .
Too many commas, man! Cannot grasp! Please translate.
Oh screw my commas ,I never edit . I just write first draft and
that’s it . Maybe I should clean up my act . Sometimes I put a
comma when I’m pausing in my own mind ,rather than it
being proper . But your easy to read as well as creative to the max . I have just decided that you should put a comma at points where your brain goes dead and you forgot what you were writing about . That’s it ,that’s the new rule …I like it .
I have just decided that you should put a comma at points where your brain goes dead and you forgot what you were writing about .</I.
If, that’s, the, rule, I’m, gonna, be, comma-tastic, henceforth,…,
:lol:,
Google “Citigroup Plutonomy”
Did you think I was joking about not needing the consumer in a 75% consumer driven economy?
The PTB gave completely lost touch with any semblance or pretense of reality.
The “outsourcing” companies have bankrupted their own customers (the formerly well-paid American workers/consumers).
This can’t be a problem, can it? I thought the Green Shoots were going to save us? I guess they’ll have to adjust the Birth Death model to create more “jobs” that don’t exist.
The Recoveryless Recovery continues.
White House’s botched ‘op’
By CHARLES HURT, Post Correspondent
WASHINGTON — President Obama yesterday rolled out the red carpet — and handed out doctors’ white coats as well, just so nobody missed his hard-sell health-care message.
In a heavy-handed attempt at reviving support for health-care reform, the White House orchestrated a massive photo op to buttress its claim that front-line physicians support Obama.
The physicians, all invited guests, were told to bring their white lab coats to make sure that TV cameras captured the image.
But some docs apparently forgot, failing to meet the White House dress code by showing up in business suits or dresses.
So the White House rustled up white coats for them and handed them to the suited physicians who had taken seats in the sun-splashed lawn area. All this to provide a visual counter to complaints from other doctors that pending legislation is bad news for the medical profession.
“Nobody has more credibility with the American people on this issue than you do,” Obama told his guests.
The president was flanked by four white-coated doctors at a podium as he delivered his pep talk.
“When you cut through all the noise and all the distractions that are out there, I think what’s most telling is that some of the people who are most supportive of reform are the very medical professionals who know the health-care system best,” the president said. “I want to thank every single doctor who is here,” Obama said. “And I especially want to thank you for agreeing to fan out across the country and make the case about why this reform effort is so desperately needed.”
Underlying the strictly photo-op nature of the event, The Associated Press noted that Obama broke no new ground in his remarks. The president told the doctors that if they back him, “I’m confident we are going to get health reform passed this year.”
The Republican National Committee shot back with a response from Rep. Tom Price (R-Ga.), who was an orthopedic surgeon before being elected to Congress. “Today, the president wants you to believe that the medical community supports his government takeover of health care. Don’t be fooled,” Price said.
(insert requisite white-coat-wearing ho joke here)
So does that mean that if I wear my husband’s white lab coat wherever I go, people will listen to all that I say with rapt, respectful attention ? Geesh.
So does that mean that if I wear my husband’s white lab coat wherever I go, people will listen to all that I say with rapt, respectful attention ?
I wouldn’t be surprised, actually. People seem to be kinda simple when it comes to that sort of thing.
I just love experiments of this sort. Give it a try and see what happens, and then tell us.
Meanwhile, I will open my costume closet and see what looks good. I know! I’ll dress like a gorilla! But a gorilla in a white lab coat! With glasses and a boring tie!*
And then we’ll compare results. And then we’ll apply for a grant to study the results. And then we won’t do anything but hang out and lie and drink coffee and flirt with interns and gossip and lose all our important papers. Like I do now, except THIS will be for science.
*I was actually gonna do this anyway. But I may as well advance the cause of science at the same time. I just love science, you know.
*I was actually gonna do this anyway. But I may as well advance the cause of science at the same time. I just love science, you know.
sounds really cool, fun times!
Lets all play pirate, damsel, next time, oh wait, this is a different game, isn’t it.
Silverback,
Yes, the white lab coat thing is amazing. A couple of years ago, my wife and I were headed to a Who-Dunnit Murder Mystery party at a friends house.
We all dressed in costume for our pre-selected roles. I was to be a doctor and was properly attired in a white lab coat with a stethoscope draped around my neck.
I was pulled over by the by the local cops (in costume) going well above the speed limit. The officer approached my vehicle, saw my attire and simply said “Doc, you gotta slow down”. It was all my wife and I could do to suppress grins and laughter till he walked away.
Takeaway thought - if you need to get somewhere fast, invest a few bucks in a lab coat and stethoscope.
I was amazed at the power of a white lab coat. My wife and I were invited to a Who-Dunnit Murder Mystery party. My role was a doctor and I purchased a lab coat and cheap stethoscope as this was an in character, in costume party.
On the way to the party we were pulled over for greatly exceeding the speed limit. The officer approached the car and saw me in my doc garb. White lab cape and stethoscope dangling around my neck. His statement - Doc…you gotta slow it down…OK?
My wife and I could barely stifle our laughter till he walked away.
Lets all play pirate, damsel, next time, oh wait, this is a different game, isn’t it.
It’s not a game, you frivolous person! It’s science! Especially if there’s a white lab coat somewhere in there. Like, if there’s a scientist pirate.
Man, show some respect!
HEE HEE HO HO HAH HAH
there coming to take me away
Friggin’ shameless. I’ll have to see if I can rustle up that picture so I can use it as reference to know what doctors *not* to see.
Mission Accomplished?
Finally someone points out the core of the issue. BOTH parties engage in this kind of ‘potempkin’ BS. But that’s the only thing that sells to the masses. God forfend that they actually have to actually THINK about the underlying issues.
Good thing the adults are in charge.
President Obama didn’t get far with Benjamin Netanyahu on the housing settlements, didn’t get far with any real Banker’s reforms on Wall Street, didn’t score the Olympic bid, and the Healthcare reforms will likely be dead on arrival. I’d say Larry Summers and the neocons are getting everything their way.
““Nobody has more credibility with the American people on this issue than you do,” Obama told his guests.”
A short time ago Obama blamed the doctors for taking out healthy tonsils to increase their earnings. Now nobody has more credibility. hmmm
“Credibility” refers to people trusting them to make health care decisions. Such trust is completely irrelevant as to whether some doctors actually perform unneccessary procedures. Most Americans don’t do an in depth analysis of their doctor’s advice to see if it conforms with tested/published best practices for their symptoms.
Valid points.
Although you have to wonder, what percentage of unnecessary procedures are done to stave off lawsuits as opposed to fill doctors’ pockets?
They may have started doing the uneeded procedures to avoid lawsuits. But, upon discovering that owning testing facilities is very profitable, they mostly do it now because it makes money. And taking away the lawsuit incentive doesn’t change the making money incentive. Texas has had no significant reduction in health care costs since passing massive tort reform and restricting recoveries from malpractice suits. It sounds like it should work, but it doesn’t. Not now that the practices have purchased the machines or the docs are partners in the testing facitlities/out patient surgery centers. They have to over test/over treat. If they didn’t they wouldn’t be able to cover the debt payments on the machines. Or make so much money. Or (for the younger ones) make enough money to cover their student loan payments.
First doc I went to for my knee insisted that I get an x-ray despite my firm assurance that I had not fallen down or had any other impact on my knee. He didn’t even do the exam that diagnosed the probable injury until after the x-ray was done (owned by his practice). He also wanted to set me up for substantial physical therapy after the surgery. I decided not to use him. The doc I did use said that physical therapy wasn’t needed unless I didn’t recover with exercises I could do on my own.
Just like my dentist wanting me to get an x-ray every 2 years or so, even though I don’t have any current dental problems. It seems excessive- I don’t get my body x-rayed every 2 years just to see what’s up. Do teeth really call for such vigilance? Or is it just a money-maker?
Always believed that if you have dental insurance, you would end up with a crown instead of a filling. My experiences certainly support that.
And don’t forget the $50K leg amputations that are not required but performed by the evil profiteering doctors. Any doctor that is in favor of his government takeover should not only have their licence revoked but should see one of their colleagues in the psychiatry field.
I think I preferred the old “are you a real estate agent” Eddie to this new “talking point parrot” Eddie.
I’m not the one who said it. The messiah used the $50K amputation as an example of why we need to socialize medicine, not me. But I forgot, for the left, using Obama’s own words against him is not allowed.
blamed the doctors for taking out healthy tonsils to increase their earnings. Now nobody has more credibility. hmmm
But that is how sheeple see MD’s or folks in lab coats.
They and their office act as if they are the be all and end all. No “be nice to the customers” classes were taken before getting their jobs.
Shades of Normandy, circa 1994.
I’ve talked to my doctor and some of the various people around his office. They seemed to favor some kind of public option. Not that is grabs a broad swath of the industry.
I’m sceptical about how this would work long term and impacts to the medical field. We’ve had trouble containing costs in the private sector. Make it public… oye. Then it tends to be over reaction one way or the other.
Also not buying a lot of the rhetoric from either side on costs. They throw out a 50B number as far as cost goes. However, healthcare was 15% of GDP or something like that. That is 2,000 billion dollars (2T). Might be missing by 1T or so here.
My doubts are on both sides of this debate. Why is this going to cost so little in the 5% increase in spending? What trade off is there vs what is being spent now? The size is scary BUT we are already paying a dizzying amount.
Why do we have to form new groups to handle this? So, Structural concerns abound.
Where does this leave private insurance and healthcare?
What about the hospitals? Why not fund them dirrectly through H&HS? Why use an insurance organization?
In my own personnel death pannel decisions; are we going to provide free health care to morbidly obese people? What about drug addicts? People who engage in risky sporting activities? What about the very old. That is always a expensive mess for marginal at best returns. Of course I’m saying that now.
Who negotiates with drug companies about pricing? How about developing treatments?
If there is some public payer option, how are all the welfare people going to pay. What do I do to keep them out of my hospital?
Anyhow, this seems silly to go on about a photo op. If anything, Obama should be more worried about the economy, Iran, Iraq, Afganistan. He keeps blowing those interactions and looking weak, ineffective and foolish.
Couldn’t agree more.
I think things are going to get worse whatever passes this year. The politicos (both sides) will save face and declare themselves winner.
The system will likely collapse next 10/15 years, so may be we will have a fresh start then.
The system is in collapse now. At least for the millions who can’t possibly afford private health insurance.
james…..you ask a lot of good questions . The health care industry has taken on a life of its own in the last 20 years ,more-so driven by profit ,than keeping the Citizens of a Country healthy and functional at reasonable costs .
And will continue to get progressively worse. I am oftened shocked when I meet middle class people who don’t have insurance because they can’t afford it and think that its “normal’. It reminds me of how priviledged I am.
A society that puts a price on everything values nothing.
The health care industry has taken on a life of its own in the last 20 years ,more-so driven by profit ,than keeping the Citizens of a Country healthy and functional at reasonable costs .
Well, if we really had a competitive marketplace, those of us who care about being healthy at a reasonable cost could seek out better providers. But since the gov’t has meddled and made it not worth the insurance companies’ time to worry about individuals, such a thing isn’t possible.
The tax incentives for companies to provide health insurance, and the resulting lack of power of the individual certainly is a factor is this discussion, no?
No question about it drumminj that the health care industry
has become a monopoly ,in part because of lack of a competitive marketplace . Also increasingly ,year by year, the Monopoly wants to make more profits (as in private insurance companies calling the shots ).
I tell people about how I use to pay only 5% or less of my salary toward
health care costs 40 or 50 years ago ,
With Health care costs the Power Brokers don’t want a competitive environment ,but with all other industries it’s ok to cut cost by world slave labor .You see its all pick and choose depending on who is lobbying . I would think that health care would be the one area where it makes sense to be a little more humane ,after all it can be a life or death matter .
Ummm, well I personally am happy that most people on this board can afford insurance and don’t have to worry about their healthcare. Its such a shame that many cannot afford it though. So I would MUCH prefer we took that money from being in Afghan (why are we there btw?) and put it some good use for American citizens.
I would be ecstatic to see a national health system and I do have insurance. And you know what? I couldn’t give a damn about insurance companies. Friggin’ ripoffs that they are.
Well,I had really good insurance ,but that didn’t matter when it
came to the shills at the hospital wanting to ration ,and how much they controlled the Doctors . I was more of a liability to them because I had good insurance ,that is the crazy part about it in the final analysis . I know that my spouse maybe had 7 years left at best ,but I wanted those 7 years . You would have to just about have to have a medical degree to know what they were pulling .
They looked at the case and surmised that they didn’t want to put
thousands of dollars into someone who would only get 7 years at best,but i say who were they to make that decision when I had the insurance to cover it . If I told you some of the conversations that took place in the course of the dealings with the money people ,it would be shocking to you . Never mind ,I’m just bitter because i got personally burned and in spite of putting up the fight of my life ,the patient died because of
hospital germs of all things because of the insurance company dicking around . I have posted about this before .I guess I’m not over it ,might never be .
Wiz,
How long were you and your wife married?
It’s impossible to get over the death of a long-term spouse, IMHO. Hopefully, you will find a new friend, maybe one who has been through something similar to you with a beloved spouse, and you will be able to keep company and enjoy a sort of peace until you get to see your wife again (at least, that’s what I believe).
I am so sorry for your loss.
There are some things you shouldnt get over. Get past, maybe, but never get over.
Wiz,
A great big hug.
Also ,there were non-stop emergencies going on during all those weeks that put everything in the context of high high drama with my case and other cases . I actually saw this young nurse save another patients life one day .That nurse was so happy that day .I was there so much that I was seeing everything .I guess I will spare you some of the stories .
You would get a day when everything was OK and you thought you were out of the woods and 24 hours later you were struggling (or I should say she was struggling ).I was there when she died ,I wasn’t about to let her die alone . I was in surgery masks and all geared up all the time because of the germs by a certain point ,that they made me put on all the time . Than the joke is that some hospital worker would just walk in without gear and be looking around for something ,or a nurse would come in who forgot to put the gear on .God knows what went on when I wasn’t there .
One day I went home because I was becoming terrible sick .I figured
that I finally had caught those germs also and it would do me in also . But I threw it off in 24 hours . I told my body to get over it ,and my body did what I asked ,or something did what I asked .
I remember one day we were having a good day and I went down to the lobby to take a break and I saw a young lady crying in the corner of the lobby all by herself. I went over to her and asked if she wanted some water or something .
She told me in summary that she was waiting for a cab because her husband was DOA on arrival at the hospital . She said she had kissed him that morning and he went walking down the street and later she got a call that he had a massive heart attack while he was walking down the street .
She said she couldn’t even drive without him ,and she just didn’t know what she was going to do . After giving her some support for a while and she was crying in my arms by then ,the cab showed up and she left. As I went back up the elevator I knew I was on borrowed time and I had better start preparing myself for the same fate as the stranger I met .
Housing Wizard, I can’t even begin to tell you how sorry I am for your loss. I’m so sorry.
Oh thank you Oly . Thank God I can laugh at your humor .
Good morning Bubblistas!
It’s another beautiful day in the neighborhood… of boarded up houses, black swimming pools and brown lawns.
Won’t you be
my neighbor?
You need to wear a sweater.
LOL.
I was in Cracker Barrel a few months ago (yes, I like it - they have an awesome breakfast when you’re on the road IMO). They have a bunch of old 60’s and 70’s TV show DVD’s, and had Mister Rogers Neighborhood, and the DVD had a red sweater case - literally; too funny.
Yeah, tough to beat a Cracker Barrel breakfast. Wouldn’t want to eat one too often, they’re packed with calories. I like their cheesy hash browns.
You need to wear a sweater.
I’m using it for a curtain.
You need to wear a sweater.
Reminds me of an old NW Airlines commercial where two kindergarteners are bragging about how far away their parents travel on business. Obe eventually says something like: My mom is going a bazillion miles away, to which the other kid replies: Wow, she’d better take a sweater.
Funny how the mind works.
A grandfatherly neighbor removing his clothing to music every afternoon for an audience of young children, might be thought unsettling….
I don’t remember Lady Elaine’s voice being so creepy when I was little.
We didn’t have a teevee growing up but the few times I got to see the show Lady Elaine Fairchild ALWAYS freaked me out.
Another side effect is that now I find stodgy button-up cardigans to be sexy.
Thanks a lot, Mr. Rogers. These deep-seated obsessions are hard to get rid of.
Won’t you be
my neighbor?
No, ’cause you got a gazillion black widows living in a seething, churning mass right over your wall.
All thanks to you and your merciful ways.
No, ’cause you got a gazillion black widows living in a seething, churning mass right over your wall.
That would be funny if it weren’t so god-awful creepy.
Apartment vacancy rate hits 23-year high: report
NEW YORK (Reuters) - The U.S. apartment market in the third quarter turned in one of its weakest performances ever as the national vacancy rate hit a 23-year high despite being propped up by landlords willing to take lower rent to keep tenants, according to real estate research firm Reis Inc.
The U.S. apartment vacancy rate rose to 7.8 percent in the third quarter, its highest since 1986, according to the report released on Tuesday. Vacancies have been rising since the third quarter of 2007, according to Reis.
The U.S. apartment market has been reeling for more than a year as its main demand driver, job growth, disappeared in the U.S. recession.
Loans on apartment buildings have led the real estate industry in defaults with hotels a close second. These types of properties have short leases and downturns show up quickly.
But the tough times for both sectors do not bode well for the rest of the commercial real estate industry, where longer leases can mask falling market rents.
This statistic is getting heavy airplay on the net and WBBR.
This backstops my own personal forecast that there is no bottom in housing prices for decades. Outside of mass immigration, there is no reason to suggest that a house has any pricing power given the fact that the death rate will climb for decades.
Your own part of the country is proof of that…. Look at Central & Western NY, where there was a net population loss during the decade of the 1990s. House prices went down and stayed down. Only when the population began in increase some in the early 2000s did prices begin to rise again some.
Oh, and while prices were falling through-out the ’90s, taxes had to go up to maintain public services.
Tax appreciation can easily wipe out price appreciation.
Cincy,
Do you know what industries are keeping the out of staters coming? I’m running into new people coming in or former CNYers coming home left and right.
OTOH, for some income is secondary. Just today heard of a lawyer who lost her job in NYC. She can pay cash to come home and she feels good about returning home in these uncertain times. I know there are several towns in this area: Manlius, Pompey, Dewitt, Skaneateles and a few others whose 2009 year to date median price is above last years. Gheesh! Who would have ever thought?!!
Anecdotal, but, I seem to be seeing more out-of -state plates on cars in rush hour traffic; could returning snowbirds be the reason for the uptick in home sales in N Ohio lately? Lots of cheap ones still on the market with still massive numbers of sheriff sales leading the declining prices. Never believe Zillow in this neck of the woods.
This backstops my own personal forecast that there is no bottom in housing prices for decades.
You must be wrong. I have returned to the USA for a five week visit after being gone for 16 months. So far I’ve visited VA, MD,PA,W VA, KS, MO and Cali.
A lot of home owners say it’s gonna get better from here. But I did hear a couple discussing tax ramifications from a “short sale” at the H&R Block office in Santa Cruz California today.
Some of the houses in Loudon County VA were much bigger than I imagined even after reading about the McMansions there.
Kansas City seems to be doing a little better than the coasts but NorCal is kinda bummed out. On a happier note, The Hardly Strictly Bluegrass Fest. in SF was fantastic. It’s every October, it’s free and it’s huge.
The only thing that’ll really help the overhang is for this to stay low (in the 500k-800k range) for about 5-7 years. In other words - time.
We’re about 1 year in. A few more to go.
(This assumes we actually return to a normal economy; that’s another story though given the new plateau of debt we’ve achieved)
Yep. scarry graph and has anyone noticed that the ABR is still in the toilet?
http://info.aia.org/aiarchitect/thisweek09/0925/0925b_otb.cfm
We’re about 1 year in. A few more to go.
You’re supposed to say, “Got popcorn, Neil?”, after that.
I am reasonably certain that the current mess *IS* the new eCONomy. Continued high unemployment, record debt levels, lousy job market, and new scams every week to keep the masses distracted.
Why is the stock market going bonkers then?
And why does the rest of america care, and think that because the mkt is up, it means the economy is good now?
I don’t see it. But then high season is almost here and traffic is building up from wealthy out of towners.
The stock market’s ascent, as per Peter Schiff, is nothing but pure inflation. And at some point, it will come home to roost in higher prices for everything. Then Bernanke will try to put the genie back in the bottle but he won’t be able to. In fact, there are already some rumblings that the FOMC will be forced to raise rates much sooner than they’ve been leading us to believe. Somehow I doubt that the US markets will continue to go up if that happens. It will certainly herald the next down leg in the housing market.
Imagine, all the ARM resets next year coinciding with the raising of interest rates! It will be the perfect storm for house prices.
“but does absolutely nothing in the “overall overhang” of housing inventory picture (including apartments) vs. population. ”
Yes, this is true; it’s not just against “population”, though, but rather against “households”. The key factor in reducing the inventory is household creation—in other words, new households formed.
Moving people from renting to owning just decreases the inventory of property held-for-sale, but also increases the inventory of vacant rentals. In other words, the government stimulus is actually punishing landlords.
Household formation rates are way down due to the bust, as people put off moving out of their parent’s place (or move back in), singles combine households and share space, people delay getting married, etc.
The U.S. apartment market in the third quarter turned in one of its weakest performances ever as the national vacancy rate hit a 23-year high despite being propped up by landlords willing to take lower rent to keep tenants, according to real estate research firm Reis Inc.
So much for the predictions of the NAR that rising foreclosures would push more people into apartments, pushing down vacancy rates and pushing up rents making it cheaper to own than rent. That hasn’t happened, even with the large numbers of foreclosures being held off the market.
The total supply of housing relative to the population is the important number. To soak up the excess housing, the number of households needs to be increased through decreasing the household size. For this to happen with stagnant or falling wages, the cost or renting and owning will have to come down quite a bit.
Efforts to prop up housing costs at artificially high levels just means a lot of housing is going to sit vacant for a very long time.
So much for the predictions of the NAR that rising foreclosures would push more people into apartments, pushing down vacancy rates and pushing up rents making it cheaper to own than rent.
NAR got part of it right. More people are getting pushed into apartments, ie instead of one person in a two bedroom they have 4.
The excess in units is dwarfed by the excess in sq footage and # of rooms.
The excess in units is dwarfed by the excess in sq footage and # of rooms.
So true. The irony is that while we’re squeezing 4 people into 1000 sqft apartments, 4000 sqft houses sit vacant.
How many of those giant houses will only be occupied by 1 or 2 people? How many will eventually be used for some purpose other than SFH?
Can a person who can’t pay their mortgage because they’re unemployed easily cover the rent on a similarly sized apt in the same town? Probably not. And even if he can, that government pay check has a cut off date even if it is extended a few times.
Actually believe it or not the total number of housing including apartments *hasn’t* gone up vs. population, at least according the census bureau. I checked and was surprised to see that. I’ll post a graph.
Check out table 8 here - www dot census.gov/hhes/www/housing/hvs/historic/index.html. While “all housing units” has gone up quite a bit - it’s kept pretty much exact pace with population growth (research dot stlouisfed.org//fred2/data/POP.txt).
Given that vacancy rates are way high - I can only take that to mean that people are really bunching up.
graph of persons per housing unit since 1965. The number fell steadily until about 1990 and has been quite flat since then. It did appear to fall some during the bubble, though not much. It’s hard to tell since there’s a weird adjustment in 2002 that I don’t know about.
I can’t wrap my mind around the fact that the chart shows no increase in housing to persons in the last few years. Haven’t we seen massive overbuilding almost everywhere? How can there be no change in the ratio in the last few years? Something seems wrong with that, or else we have much less of a housing bubble than we thought.
IMHO, the problem isn’t surpluss housing supply, but rather too much debt.
We’ve had a lot of new immigraion into the U.S., in addition to our normal increases in the number of households as kids move out and form families of their own.
The problem with the bubble was ultra-low interest rates which forced lenders to ease terms in order to get a higher yield (simplifying things a bit here).
Efforts to prop up housing costs at artificially high levels just means a lot of housing is going to sit vacant for a very long time.
Without dilligent maintennance the McCrapShacks built over the past two decades won’t last more than a few years. They don’t build em like they used to.
Good salvage for granite slabs and stainless appliances though
Without dilligent maintennance the McCrapShacks built over the past two decades won’t last more than a few years. They don’t build em like they used to.
Live like Detroit in a fraction of the time.
LOL, Exactly. The modern world as speeded everything up to hyperdrive.
That means the value of the existing supply goes up.
I certainly hope so. I bought in 2005
I wish I had stumbled across the HBB even 6 months earlier. At least I dont have any sort of exotic mortgage and my principal / payments are low. Still sucks loosing the equity.
I bought in Florida in 2001, and I’m concerned about losing equity.
I bought in late 2009, and I’m worried about losing equity.
“But the tough times for both sectors do not bode well for the rest of the commercial real estate industry, where longer leases can mask falling market rents.”
Ahhhh, there’s the money quote.
CRE is most likely the next box of shoes to drop. “A rolling loan gathers no loss” but the financing for so many of the recent commercial development projects can only be kicked down the cul-de-sak so far. Vacancy rate, even here in Washington DC, the fountainhead of stimulus case, are at 11.7 percent. That is nowhere near a healthy commercial market and it’s only going to get worse as new buildings come on line and the economy swirls around the bowl.
http://washington.bizjournals.com/washington/stories/2009/03/30/daily77.html
FYI, a “normal” vacancy rate, at least for DC, is around 8%. In talking to several property managers I know, 3 year lease rates for class ‘A’ office space in the downtown market have fallen by around 30%. It stands to reason that the suburbs are doing worse given all the development in recent years.
And this is in Washington “it cant happen here” DC.
Look out below.
My federal office has been hiring. We are in a commercial building, but will not be expanding the space that we lease as far as I can tell. Just filling in the empty cubes. Place is a little noiser. We will live with it.
Also, the landlord put up a bunch of Purell dispensers in the hallways a few weeks ago.
Any tips on how to land a “Federal Job”. I’ve applied for several, and have yet to even score an interview. Usually all I get is a letter saying that I have met the requirements, but never hear anything after that. I’m sure there are plenty of applicants, as the pay scales are way better than what I see in the private sector.
People are going nuts with this germophobe stuff. We’ve got a bottle on the front counter.
LOL, I’ve been to a lot of meetings lately where there is a bottle of hand sanitizer on the side credenza. Don’t know if I should be insulted.
This whole pig flue frenzy is way more than a little absurd.
Oh and yeah, my office has a bottle at the front reception desk as well 8|
Colorado,
What do you do? I’m afraid I’m not the best person to ask because I got the first fed job I applied for. I know that sounds like I knew exactly what to do, but I’m not sure I have as much insigtht as people who applied for several jobs and got one.
Anyway, I was out of work and continuing an advanced degree that my previous employer had started me on. Went to talk to a professor whose class I was going to take the next semester and was in an area I wanted to get into (I’m a lawyer). She asked about my background and offered to help. She referred me to a few private sector jobs, but none of those went anywhere. She also put me in touch with the director of this group who really liked her and would have done all his hiring out of her classes if he could. He had an admin in that group gave me a heads up when they posted the listing. I spent a solid week doing nothing but fill out that application using the advice, “Never lie, but this is no time to be modest.”
The application got me onto the “most qualified” list. That is one level after the you are qualified for this position letter. The analysis is done by special HR people and they use a very automatic scoring process. Contacts can’t help you there. Once I got on the most qualified list, the people in the group already knew my name because of the professor’s recommendation. I had a pretty good phone interview and an offer in a few weeks. Went through initial background check and started a few months after that. Process from hearing about the listing to starting was about 9 months.
Biggest thing is to find jobs that mesh with your exact background. Figure out how your experience fits with what they want, no matter how old that experience is (they don’t care how long ago it was for the most qualified list screening). Use the words from the listing in your application. Don’t get hung up on a particular GS level. Expect to take a pay cut from your last job.
If you need more info, post an e-mail address and I’ll try to get in touch to answer a few questions.
Deflationista’s unite!
Rents are going down!
Guess that will go out of the CPI pretty soon. It will just be state run health care as CPI.
I didn’t even ask for it and my apartment community dropped the rent by $150/month if I renew my apartment lease for six months. This is in downtown Dallas.
That happened to me in LA in May. 20% rent reduction. My new lease is to be done in November. I’m seeing less vacancy in my area so I don’t have much hope for another reduction.
Got home from work last night and the lease renewal envelope was on my door. They raised my rent by $150. Still below the monthly about a year ago. But I am not surprised.
I could get the same plus a dishwasher walking distance to the beach sand in Hermosa Beach, but I still won’t even have enough bucks to go carousing at the Hermosa Pier bars starting in January. 19% of my paychecks will go to 401k and my income tax witholding will at least double compared to now.
Of course vacancies are up. Did they think 50% of personal income spent on shelter was going to somehow continue?
What’s even worse, many of the idiots paying this also think it’s normal.
It’s not.
30 some years ago, spending 25% of personal income on shelter was considered prudent. You couldn’t even get a rental if you couldn’t make that 25%. This also helped to keep costs down. 50% was considered insane and unsustainable. They were right.
+1 Over the long haul, 25% toward shelter is doable.
With nothing paid for these days, the “how much a month?” folks are paying 10-15% more for everything, but they don’t see it that way.
Amen, eco.
Gold hits record high with dollar under pressure
By Nick Godt NEW YORK (MarketWatch)
Gold futures hit a new record high on Tuesday, lifted by dollar weakness after Australia hiked interest rates and after a report that Gulf oil producers, along with China, Russia, Japan and France, are planning to eventually end dollar-based oil pricing. Gold for December delivery rose as high $1,038.00 an ounce in electronic trade, topping the previous record of $1,033.90 reached in March 2008. The December contract recently traded at $1,037.50 an ounce, up $19.70, or 2%.
Cash4gold is hiring.Send them your gold and they will send you back pennies on the dollar.
Do any of you know of an etf that shorts gold?
Hunh. Maybe people who bought gold @ $ 800 per oz. weren’t so stupid after all ?
THAT would be ME!!!
Doesn’t that depend on where you sell? I bought high and sold low in my first transaction.
The demise of the dollar
By Robert Fisk
In the most profound financial change in recent Middle East history, Gulf Arabs are planning – along with China, Russia, Japan and France – to end dollar dealings for oil, moving instead to a basket of currencies including the Japanese yen and Chinese yuan, the euro, gold and a new, unified currency planned for nations in the Gulf Co-operation Council, including Saudi Arabia, Abu Dhabi, Kuwait and Qatar.
Secret meetings have already been held by finance ministers and central bank governors in Russia, China, Japan and Brazil to work on the scheme, which will mean that oil will no longer be priced in dollars.
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/the-demise-of-the-dollar-1798175.html
How secret can that meeting have been if I can read about it on this blog?
Seems to me this exact story ran last year, and the year before.
Could it be traders attempting to manimulate the market? I remember openly aired complaints regarding the dollar in prior years. Not sure I’ve seen articles regarding secret meetings. It’s a bold statement to say the least.
Skip, you’re sounding to logical.
Gulf oil is the backbone for the dollar being the world reserve currency which allows us to by cheap Chinese products in exchange for worthless debt. Dropping the dollar will be an economic catastrophe for the FIRE economy.
We have 125,000 troops in Iraq. Maybe we could move them south?
Dropping the dollar will be an economic catastrophe for the FIRE economy.
We have 125,000 troops in Iraq. Maybe we could move them south?
———-
Think that line of persuasion has been sounded in the Kingdom of Sand and Oil or is just meant to be inferred? You wonder when and under what circumstances that final card might be flipped.
It’s not our ability to move our troops south that’s our trump card, it’s that without the protection of the US military, those gulf states wouldn’t last until this weekend. Neither the euro nor the yuan nor any other basket of currencies can project enough power to protect those rich little states from their neighbors. That surely isn’t going unnoticed by those involved.
“Neither the euro nor the yuan nor any other basket of currencies can project enough power to protect those rich little states from their” own residents.
I don’t know, krazy bill. I bet the residents of those gulf states are pretty happy with the status quo- but note I’m not talking about Saudi Arabia. They’re a different case altogether, but still dependent on us for the continuing existence of their ruling class.
If you want to short gold just buy put options on GLD, or if you dare, short it outright.
“Do any of you know of an etf that shorts gold?”
DZZ is the double short
Short DZZ.
“etf that shorts gold?”
ProShares GLL
cash4gold…which is why I laugh at those who bought jewelry. Of the precious metals I only bought bullion coins over the last fourteen years because I know I can take coins to my favorite coin dealer and get cash. Only spending five minutes in the shop.
My theory is that since “they” (the scammers) want to buy our gold, it must be worth keeping. Same idea when “they” wanted us to buy houses we couldn’t afford - not buying was the right decision.
To pick nits - $1037 is not a record. Gold hit $1040 midday last year. They’re only comparing with end-of-day closes, but that’s meaningless unless comparing with today’s end-of-day close.
It went above $800 over 20 years ago, so adjusted for “inflation”, the real high is much more. Those Hunt brothers must be the richest people on earth…
Right, and houses are a much better investment today.
This is sorta the point. What should also outpace inflation? Real estate. IMO, gold is like life insurance. Go without any at your risk, too much is a waste of resources, and it’s not likely one will be jumping for joy the day it’s collected.
Since I can’t see your face, I can’t tell if your tongue is in your cheek or not. Considering the long-standing inflation/deflation arguments are you predicting lots of inflation? Housing - even at today’s prices - might do well in that kind of environment, no?
IMO, gold is like life insurance. Go without any at your risk, too much is a waste of resources, and it’s not likely one will be jumping for joy the day it’s collected.
+1 on that philosophy. As most here know - I’m a big gold proponent, but it’s only for insurance reasons. Being that there are no currencies on the gold standard - and (unfortunately) probably never will be unless something weird happens, its value is truly only driven by expectations of possible dire circumstances.
But - like life insurance - it’s something worth having, and does have significant intrinsic value.
The one distinction with gold at least is that’s it doesn’t expire like life insurance - you can pass it on.
Timing is everything. Gold appears to be a better investment at the moment versus buying a house. Taxes, death and inflation are a given. How do house prices continue the upward trajectory in the near term (5-10 years) with flat wages, high unemployment, tighter lending standards, record foreclosures, rental vacancies at an all time high, etc.
“its value is truly only driven by expectations of possible dire circumstances.”
Personally, I was quite surprised how _little_ gold was affected by the expectations of possible dire circumstances during the meltdown…
So, for those who view gold as insurance-like: how much does it make sense to have? What percent allocation makes sense to you?
What percent allocation makes sense to you?
That depends if it’s going up or down.
It looks to me that if gold breaks above $1,060 it will have broken above another teacup and handle formation for the 4th or 5th time in 8 years.
Every other time it has done that in this time frame gold has risen further. It also looks like gold is in phase 2 of a bull market and phase 3 is where fortunes are made and lost.
So do you know what this means??!! I don’t, but I’ll be selling about 10% of my gold and silver in the next week or so.
Those Hunt brothers must be the richest people on earth…
Did the Hunts buy gold though, or just silver (with which they pretty much cornered the market)?
And I think they’ve since sold it haven’t they?
‘they’ve since sold it haven’t they?’
Well, I hope they didn’t give it away…
You know that Nelson is still alive right?
He did go bankrupt when silver prices dropped, but Wikipedia doesn’t say if he sold it or not. I’m guessing so, but not sure.
OK - now we’re at a record. Currently $1042.40.
What’s gold adjusted for inflation compared to 1980’s high? It was a sucker bet then, it’s a sucker bet now.
But wait, what’s that? They’re not making ant more gold and if I don’t buy now I will be priced out forever. Hmmmm I guess I better buy a pound or two.
What do you recommend buying?
“What do you recommend buying?”
A foreclosure you would live in for 30 years in a good neighborhood from a bank. I’m telling you, if I wanted to live in Pinellas for the rest of my life I could buy a house for cheaper than rent right now. Easily.
“A foreclosure you would live in for 30 years in a good neighborhood from a bank.”
THAT would be US.
Well, 15 to 20 years anyway.
A foreclosure you would live in for 30 years in a good neighborhood from a bank. I’m telling you, if I wanted to live in Pinellas for the rest of my life I could buy a house for cheaper than rent right now. Easily.
In case you didn’t hear vacancies are at an all time high. Expect to see falling rents. Also factor in the falling house price.
Muggy
Been noticing there are SFH in Cocoa Beach three blocks from the water for around $100,000. Not far from Ron’s Surf Shop.
Perhaps not the kind of place that someone would live in for 30 years. Good spot to watch and hear goings on at the Cape, methinks.
Comment by Bill in Carolina
2009-10-06 08:50:27
“A foreclosure you would live in for 30 years in a good neighborhood from a bank.”
THAT would be US.
Well, 15 to 20 years anyway.
You planning on getting your house foreclosed on in 15-20 years? Sorry to hear that Bill. Maybe the bank will work something out with you?
“A foreclosure you would live in for 30 years in a good neighborhood from a bank. I’m telling you, if I wanted to live in Pinellas for the rest of my life I could buy a house for cheaper than rent right now. Easily.”
A nice idea, assuming you have job for the next 30-years that pays enough to make the mortgage payments, upkeep costs, etc. Now, if you’re lucky enough to live in a place where foreclosures actually sell *cheap* to the public AND are not total dumps, then this idea might work.
Yep. Cheap foreclosures more often than not mean unlivable or a neighborhood where you wouldn’t want to live. I’ve been looking in Pinellas and Hillsborough and not much for the taking.
“Looking back at gold prices in relation to the current levels, bullion traded at its highest value in January 1980, when it reached a high of $784 per troy ounce. Accounting for inflation, the price of gold then would stand at about $2,049 per troy ounce today.”
Pretty much irrelevant. Gold obviously *was* in a bubble in 1980 (looking back), so comparisons with that very very brief peak of $800 are meaningless. It was only above $500 even for just a couple of weeks or so IIRC.
You have to:
- Compare it with the “base” prices; generally have run in the $300-400 range the past few years.
- Add the context of now-runaway debt.
And voila - you get what we have today. Yeah it may be in a bubble now too. The big question is whether or not we get the debt, or even the deficit, under control or not. Being that even the government projects that we *won’t* get either under control any time in the next 10 years, you get the prices we have now.
Just answering the post above. As I have posted before I have a little GLD and some physical though its only about 5% of my total “savings.”
You know they might stop using the dollar as the world reserve currency and I thought…. good.
Really, does everyone think it means that all the countries with dollars and reserves will just dump them all at once? How would that be in their interest?
Does Arabia think it is best to snuggle up to the Russians, another competitor?
What about single party communist China?
Or Japan, original home of the ZIRP.
Perhaps Brazil is a good choice? What no? South America? Heck, they are half a biscuit from complete anarchy down there.
There is the Euro though. Course that economy is based on socialism and smoke and mirrors.
Well, get ready for managing multiple country currency.
And there is some blather about how we support wars with help from Russia and China. Seems like these guys are not doing their homework.
Anyhow, the cash flow back into the US as it gets dumped on the market; will result in balancing out the trade problems as the US becomes cheap. Which is a lot of what we need to get back to producing.
I think this will be seen as inflationary when in fact it might produce a massively deflationary effect as debt is paid down.
Federal Reserve backing allows Wall St. bankers to buy in Hamptons again. Good old days have returned:
Oct. 5 (Bloomberg) — Home prices in the Hamptons, the oceanside summer getaway for celebrities and Wall Street financiers, climbed 12 percent in the third quarter from a year earlier on an increase in high-end sales.
The median price rose to $840,000 across the 15 villages and hamlets that make up Long Island’s East End, according to a report by the Corcoran Group, a New York-based property broker with Hamptons offices. The median for luxury homes, defined as the top 10 percent by price, jumped 23 percent to $5.9 million.
“We usually see Wall Street bonus money stepping up to the plate in the second quarter,” said Rick Hoffman, a Bridgehampton-based senior vice president for Corcoran. “Some of it may have stepped up in the third quarter as people realized this is a buying opportunity.”
New York City’s unemployment rate increased to 10.3 percent in August, a lingering effect of the U.S. recession and global credit crisis. Financial firms have reported more than $1.6 trillion in corporate losses and asset writedowns tied to record defaults on home loans. Executives at those companies are a driving force in the Hamptons property market, Hoffman said.
The inventory of Hamptons homes for sale climbed 15 percent to 7,648 as the number of sales declined by 1 percent to 345.
The combined dollar value of all transactions increased 19 percent to $542.5 million, Corcoran said.
Impatient New Yorkers
The median price in the year earlier quarter was influenced by sales of “lower end” homes priced at less than $1 million, Hoffman said. This year’s third quarter included a revival of home sales in the $1.5 million to $4 million range, he said.
“New Yorkers are impatient, after two years of holding off on purchasing, a lot of people are saying ‘Let’s just make the move.’”
“New Yorkers are impatient, after two years of holding off on purchasing, a lot of people are saying ‘Let’s just make the move.’”
Impatient? I call it immature, knee jerk, lack of foresight, childish, etc.
There are those who are chauffeured into the Hamptons, those who are helo’d into the Hamptons, those who yacht into the Hamptons; and then there are us poor bridge-and-tunnel schlubs who find our way in AS IF.
“New Yorkers are impatient, after two years of holding off on purchasing, a lot of people are saying ‘Let’s just make the move.’”
So we would call that what? A falling meat cleaver? LOL
Couldn’t happen to a nicer bunch of folks.
“We usually see Wall Street bonus money stepping up to the plate in the second quarter,”
Good to see that the tax payer money enables the bankers to live the lifestyle there’re accustomed too.
Change you can believe in…
Your tax dollars at work.Take money from the working man and give it to the crooks on wall street who cant even run a profitable business.As usual nobody does anyhing about it and just sit around and watch.If me or you arent profitable we go out of business.Wall street is too big to fail now.They own congress.Even when they dont get their way by vote they do behind close door deals.Keep buying stocks so they get rich.
Bbbbbbut I thought Obama was supposed to change all that and make the world right after 8 years of Bu$cho/Hitlerburton.
How’s that all working out for everyone?
Yeah, the whole Hope-y, Change-y thing is rather a dud.
It’s working out great for us. For the shrinking moonbat minority however……
Yeah, the whole Hope-y, Change-y thing is rather a dud.
Let’s see, eight months to fix eight years worth of pillage and destruction?
Man, you have a higher opinion of Brock than I do.
At this point, we’re still in danger of falling into a Depression. If Obama & Co. keep us out of it, it will be an accomplishment.
I think Obama will execute most of the “change” during his second term. That’s right, you get to whine and moan for 7 more years.
Heres “hoping” he does exactly that but yeah, I sure as hell wish he would go down to the tip of manhattan with a 2×4 and start whacking a few people over the head.
I sure as hell wish he would go down to the tip of manhattan with a 2×4 and start whacking a few people over the head.
I’d actually watch TV news to see that…
Obama will save the economy. China’s economy, India’s economy, Brazil’s economy (already started with the Olympics). Obama thinks if only you tax everyone to death, the economy will magically get better. He will learn soon enough. So will the kool-aid drinkers.
And yes I fear you’re right Oxide. He will probably get re-elected. When given a choice between working or getting free stuff (health care, mortgages, college tuition) or working, a majority will vote for the freebies. That works for a while. But the problem with socialism is eventually you run out of other people’s money.
That works for a while. But the problem with socialism is eventually you run out of other people’s money.
Well, at least we’re getting some of our own money back this way. Instead of handing it over to Halliburton and KBR or dropping it on pallets into Iraq.
Where is this free stuff that Obama is handing out? I want my free healthcare, mortgage and tuition, but don’t see it anywhere.
Well, at least we’re getting some of our own money back this way. Instead of handing it over to Halliburton and KBR or dropping it on pallets into Iraq.
So you are saying that you love to rob your kids’ piggy banks?
The money is not coming from rich people. That money has already moved to china and some other places and it’s never coming back. The only way you do is rob your kids’ future.
“He will probably get re-elected.”
The next wave of mortgage resets and the downgrade of CRE will translate into more job losses, and it will crush any chance re-election, IMHO.
So you are saying that you love to rob your kids’ piggy banks?
What I’m saying is, the government apparently just can’t help throwing our money away.
The previous crew of bandits liked to throw it away on war. This bunch of clowns wants to “redistribute” it back to us.
I kind of like that better.
PS:I have no kids.
The previous crew of bandits liked to throw it away on war. This bunch of clowns wants to “redistribute” it back to us.
I kind of like that better.
Even though the scale of the latter is about 10x (depending on what you include) the former?
7648 divided by 345 equals 21.168115 quarters!!! And I don’t mean Washington’s either.
————————————————————-
The inventory of Hamptons homes for sale climbed 15 percent to 7,648 as the number of sales declined by 1 percent to 345.
“New York City’s unemployment rate increased to 10.3 percent in August, a lingering effect of the U.S. recession and global credit crisis. ”
Nice to know that unemployment is just a “lingering effect” - why, it’s not even worth worrying about! Now, get out there and buy something you can’t afford with money you don’t have!
Hooray for the New Plutonomy!
Good morning all you “bitter” renters!
BWAHAHHAHAHAHHAHAHHAHHAHAHAHHHHHHHHHHHHH!!! (fpss™)
And I haven’t even had my first cup of joe…
Apartment vacancy rate hits 23-year high: report
By Ilaina Jonas Ilaina Jonas NEW YORK (Reuters)
Reis still expects the U.S. apartment vacancy rate to pass the 8 percent mark by perhaps next quarter but certainly by next year, Calanog said. That would make it the highest vacancy rate since Reis began tracking the market in 1980.
“We have not seen that before,” Calanog said.
“Vacancy could be worse if landlords didn’t realize fairly early on that this end game was not going to end well and lowered rents really quickly,” he said.
The U.S. apartment market in the third quarter turned in one of its weakest performances ever as the national vacancy rate hit a 23-year high despite being propped up by landlords willing to take lower rent to keep tenants, according to real estate research firm Reis Inc.
Right after my coffee I am packing my bags and go find a shadow inventory house somewhere.
I shall move in and become a shadow renter.
Who’s ever gonna know?
(the shadow do…)
Morning 50,
Second cup of coffee. Ground fog covering the
shrubs, 36 degrees warm, and cats and dogs are in
for the morning. Hi Oly!
“…and cats and dogs are in for the morning.”
You know it’s bad when cats and dogs are sleeping together.
Who you gonna call….?
Hi Rancher! Nice to see you. Well…sort of see you.
Lessee, it’s my first cup of coffee, but it’s a nice big cup, with a few chunks of white chocolate in it and a giant squirt of whipped cream bobbing on it like an iceberg. Plus, the mug is red with little coffee beans dancing around on it in a festive fashion, so that makes it extra tasty.
42 degrees here, a nice gray mist was swirling around when I woke up but it’s starting to burn off now.
It shall be a sunny, still day. I love Fall days like this.
First cup of coffee here.
Cool mornings about 52, nice warm afternoons, low to mid 70s, no fog, clear days, and the Blue Angels are in town.
This is my favorite time of the year.
It seems like all I do is bury people. 4 friends were hit by a semi on their motorcycles. 2 bikes, 3 dead, one with a leg going to be cut off. Highland, Il.
I have buried so many people in ALL age brackets the last 2 years, I can’t even keep track anymore.
Innocence Lost. And gone, for good.
This is probably why Oly Gal is sunshine in my (our) life (lives). She takes me (us) somewhere magical and fun.
I know we all have it, but man…
Good think I’m not your friend.
I’m ashamed of myself, sincerely ashamed, that this made me laugh.
Oly,
You’re wicked - but I had the same thought. As much as I feel for 8up and his ongoing business, personal and life disasters I’m just glad not to be near that black cloud.
8up - from what I’ve read about your circumstances - it can only get better from here.
Well…. black clouds spread. I believe this. Like a summer storm over the mountains, it just gets everywhere.
And I like dramatic clouds and lightning and conflagrations more than most, probably because of my basic nature, but this is beyond your average event. This is like a freakin’ Permian situation.
This situation, it seems to me, requires something else, for poor 8. I’m going to think about it, and then try to be wise like in a day or two. It’s hard to be wise, though. At least for me it is.
I’m sorry to hear that. I empathize. About 30 years ago I lost a whole bunch of family and friends over the space of about 2 years. Threw me for a loop I sometimes still think I’m trying to get out of. But life is good and life beats the alternative, so hang in there.
Hey Mike, thanks for the support, and I know about the “Threw me for a loop I sometimes still think I’m trying to get out of”. I buried my small family. I got ya.
Thanks man.
Condolences ATE. Sorry to hear that.
Our ‘neighborhood’ has also suffered from the death of 3 bikers (separate instances). Its hard.
Stay strong.
I know we all have it, but man…
Geez 8. My condolences…
Thank you lavi, I appreciate it. Allison gets to keep her leg though!!!
Full of titanium, but she is young, she’ll get used to it. 
Ouch. So sorry to hear it, ATE.
Thank You prime, I sincerely appreciate it.
That’s terrible news, Ate. Hope you feel better soon.
Hi Ate …..I have lost family and friends also in the last year . It’s really painful and nothing but time starts to ease the pain because you have to move on without those cherished people . It sucks .
Ate ….I think a person can get to much of something in to short of a period of time that it becomes overwhelming . Hang in there
and have faith that you can move on ,as you must .
Thanks coug, you are a cool dude. I appreciate it.
Ate, remember that each and every one of the departed would want you to be happy.
Those are people who DIED DIED
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9bOjc70f4p8
“Herbie pushed Tony from the Boys’ Club roof
Tony thought that his rage was just some goof
But Herbie sure gave Tony some bitchen proof
“Hey,” Herbie said, “Tony, can you fly?”
But Tony couldn’t fly . . . Tony died
Repeat Refrain: those are people…
Brian got busted on a narco rap
He beat the rap by rattin’ on some bikers
He said, hey, I know it’s dangerous,
but it sure beats Riker’s
But the next day he got offed
by the very same bikers”"
rattin out bikers, that’s a sure ticket to toe tag land
LOL
I listen to this song when I start missing my Resting In Peace loved ones.
“He said, hey, I know it’s dangerous,
but it sure beats Riker’s”
Ahhh. Wow, that songs’ a blast from the past. Sure brings back memories.
A person can only cry so much.
Sometimes you just need to crank up the music and jump around the living room, shouting the words at the top of your lungs.
And the Grief Monster goes away for a while.
(Had no idea Jim Carroll just passed away til I read the comments. Sep 11, 2009 he died died.)
Death
“Carroll, 60, died of a heart attack at his Manhattan home on September 11, 2009.[4] On September 13 (the day his death was announced), it was stated that he was at his desk working when he died”.
Jim Carroll died?
What?
Saw him in Carbondale, Il for free when I was in law school. I have to go look and see what happened to him. Wow…
Hey sleepr: I loved Jim Carroll. I loved that song too. He was cool. I think/hear that song in my head, at least once a month.
I would go off on the lyrics, but my friends are here, and may have suffered that “type” a loss, so I will not.
You know what I mean…
Hey X, I saw Jim Carroll loved his band. He was one good punk/new wave rocker. Also wrote a Pulitzer prize? winning book “The Basketball Dairies”.
where did you see him?
I never made it up to NYC to see any of them, Johnny Rotten, the Ramones etc. They did show up in Philly from time to time but I was worried my disco friends would see me at the punk locales! (it would have ruined my rep - at the time)
ATE-UP, been there. In a span of ten years I lost my mom, my dad, two cousins, a great aunt, an uncle, two other aunts, a nephew,…
You have to not get knocked out by tragedy, as tragedy is not the norm. Fight back and get on with life. My dad would tell me to get on with life. He gave me great advice just a few months before he passed away.
On the bright side, gold is shining and if you have it in bullion form, it means freedom!
Thanks Bill. Sounds like ypu had a rough go too, and I offer my condolences. Thank you for the support and wisdom.
Ya Bud, ATE
Man, sorry to hear about that…Geez…
So here’s what happened when I was 22..I’m riding my motorcycle back from Alaska, and on my way to one of my best friends wedding in Nebraska. Anxious and worried because I only have $85-90 dollars left to my name and 2,200 miles of road and 3 days to get there. I leave Price Rupert heading towards Jasper…midway around 9:30 pm I drop in to a remote tiny cafe all by itself…the guy’s just closing, but says there some soup/chili left he can heat up…I sit at the counter where an old man is slumped over, very very quiet…The cafe owner asks me where I’ve been, then asks where I was from (Calif.) I explain my problem of trying to get to Nebraska in x3 days with little money after fuel costs. The old man lifts his head and asks if he can help. I politely make an excuse about “well, I got this far, I’ll manage somehow…” and laugh and shake off his concern. I go to the restroom, I return to a large bowl of hot chili & crackers & coffee. The old man gets up, smiles, pats me on the back, and wishes me luck getting to Nebraska and leaves. A while later, I go to pay my bill and the cafe owner says that the old man gave him $20.00 to pay for my food and to give me the change…WOW!, I ask who he is, does he live around here?…(thinking I’ll sent him something…a little later on down the road…when I get home.) He tells me that he’s a stranger from Vancouver BC, came up to the area for a large family reunion…enroute from Wisconsin x7 family members traveling in a station wagon where hit by a semi, and their car tumbled down a ravine…everyone died.
I “learned” many things in an instant at that moment…
#1. “Don’t sweat the “small stuff” & it’s corollary: “small stuff” is easily defined.
#2. “Kindness” trumps “despair” at every occasion.
#3. “So, you think you know that person…”
#4. “Life, it happens to everyone… in ways that sometimes are “unexpected”"
Wow, great story, Hwy50. Thanks for posting that.
My condolences to you, ATE. That is terrible.
Thank you kim, I sincerely appreciate it.
Jesus Hwy50 ,what a story .
HW,
Everyone feels for you, everyone who’s type a comment here at Ben’s HBB…
Hwy: Absolutely amazing story. Thank you for sharing it. I will never forget that story. Never.
So sorry for your losses, ATE.
Do us a favor? Make sure you have a few people around in case you need a shoulder to cry on. Don’t try to take on the role of the only strong one. That kind of pressure doesn’t do anyone any good. Take turns.
And keep us in the loop.
Thank you polly, it means a lot to me to have your support right now, and everyone else too, but Allison gets to keep her “Titanium Leg”!!!
It’s good of you to celebrate that which is positive, ATE. Glad to hear Allison will be able to keep her leg.
I’m sorry to hear about your friends.
Just keep trying to focus on the positive things for now, even if it means you just have to admire the most simple things in life (health, some warm food, friends, etc.).
I lost both of my parents to cancer in a matter of three weeks (and an aunt and a cousin, also to cancer, within months of my parents’ passing) , so know how tough it is to avoid those dark feelings. Just having this blog to distract myself from that stuff was really helpful. I hope you are able to find some respite among your HBB friends, ATE.
Crap - that stinks ATE. Thoughts are with you, for sure.
Man, ATE, I hate to hear you’ve got more bad news to bear. I’ll be keeping you in my thoughts. I’m glad you have a place (back at work) to keep busy.
Hi “CarrieAnn” a/k/a Pretty lady with pretty name”
We all go through this sh*t, and you know it. Read Hwy’s story above. Thank you for your kind words.
Thanks CarrieAnn.
Thanks pack, and I mean it.
Sorry, Ate. It’s tough. I’m glad one survived anyway, even severely injured.
Thanks hip, yeah, Allison gets to keep her Titanium Leg though, and she is a young pretty little thing, who was on the back of a bike with a guy (her Uncle) that I used to dirt bike with.
I am so happy she is going to come out relatively OK!
I figure 1 year recovery, minimum, and never a total recovery.
But I don’t know.
Thanks afagain.
Ya Bud,
ATE
Oh Ate-Up, I am so sorry to hear about the loss of your friends.
A big, big, hug from me. As Polly said make sure you get a shoulder to cry on.
San Fran Quality Lady:
Well, you know how much I respect you. Allison gets to keep her leg full of metal and all! She’s a tough little poop! I am so happy they didn’t amputate it.
Visitation starts tomorrow, I’ll wait a few days, then go see her. Thank God for Barnes Hospital (St. Louis) ranked eighth in the nation overall.
Ya Bud, :).
ATE
The story I read said Allison is at St. Louis University Hospital. FWIW.
dude: yeah that is where she is now. She was at Barnes to begin with, and transgerred. Barnes/Slew are “connected” on serious injuries, sometimes.
Didn’t want to be nosy, just trying to help out.
Gosh, 8, I’m so very sorry to hear this. That’s rough.
But look, 8, at how many folks expressed concern and good wishes for you. That’s wonderful. Ben’s Blog—just jammed full of the highest caliber of people. ‘Course, we already knew that.
You see? You’re not alone. You have people who do care about you.
I very much agree with Polly–’Don’t try to take on the role of the only strong one. That kind of pressure doesn’t do anyone any good. Take turns.’
Do keep us in the loop.
Oly thank you and you know I don’t have to say another word about how dear you are to me, so Thank You.
Everybody gets it in the end, ATE.
Your only option is to turn around and face it off.
Hang in there, Buddy.
Thank You and I Love You to all the kind people here who offered words of support and wisdom. Trust me when I say, I will re-read these message and memorize every word. Where do you go sometimes you know? Ya Buddys, that’s where.
THE GOOD NEWS!!!!!!!
Allison is going to get to keep her leg!! :). Loaded with titanium, but she is going to make it. She works at my gym, is a beautiful little 22 year old, and we are great friends.
I am so happy and thank you Lord for saving her leg. I am so humbled, and grateful.
Again, a big kiss to all you guys, and no I am not gay!
I’m really glad to hear Allison is going to keep her leg. My brother almost lost his leg a few years back. A surgeon in Orlando who worked w/children suffering w/dwarfism worked some major magic on a leg that was crushed in multiple places. It’s shorter now but it’s still there! Thank God for the talented and skilled who give us a 2nd chance.
ahansen: you’re right, and that is why a beautiful lady like you, who got mauled by a bear, knows what she is talking about. You too are some special strong person.
I always listen to what you say, and am grateful I met you and a lot of others here, it really helps.
Thanks ahansen.
ATE
I am so sorry Ate. It’s been such a lousy year in so many ways and I am sad you are going through yet another heartache. Please know we are all here for you and sending you positive energy. And please take care of yourself - we need you here!
Thanks Bear, I appreciate it, my friends here, and in real life, are like Jewels, Diamonds, to me. I mean it too.
So sorry to hear about the deaths. That has to be dreadful to go through.
Oh Lord- sooo sorry to hear of your tragic loss 8- don’t have any words of wisdom, just prayers for you and your young friends well being. It’s been a bad week here too- one of the guys at work lost 11 of his relatives in Samoa.Just found one of them Sunday. Don’t know what to say to him either- just hang in there and concentrate on the good news about your friends leg. Titanium is very fashionable where I come from…
Peace friend…
When pundits and economists talk about a few hundred billion here and a few hundred billion there, pretty soon you’re taking about ‘real’ money. So what does one trillion dollars actually LOOK like?
Check this out
http://www.pagetutor.com/trillion/index.html
I really believe that the reason more people aren’t out in the streets of DC and New York screaming for blood (and NO, the Tea Baggers dont count) is that most people simbly cant concieve of numbers at this scale. It’s too abstract. The mind cant get around 12 zeros. That’s what scientific notation is for. The scale is quite literally cosmic.
“The mind cant get around 12 zeros…. The scale is quite literally cosmic.”
Only once in my life have I felt like I could actually feel the Earth spinning in space…I was sitting on top of a sand dune in Baja Mexico the sun was just coming up…the big full moon was just going down into the Pacific ocean just in front of me…I was just in a blank “no mind” state…staring, staring, literally I felt like I could feel the Earth slowly slowly rotating…
Yes, I was “hung-over” …but very alert after vomiting the quart of milk I had just gulped down.
That sort of ‘cosmic’ moment happened for me in the middle of Iowa of all places. I was on a week long bike ride/beer fest known as RAGBRAI and as I was stumbling back from a bar, in search of my tent out in the middle of a corn field somewhere I took a moment to look up and saw what I at first thought was an odd looking cloud and was then dumbstruck by the realization that I was seeing the immense glory of the milky way. As a city kid I had never before really seen it.
In an instant I was struk by the realization that I was viewing our home galazy edge on. I had an immediate appreciation of my vanishingly small existence but in that moment of contemplation there was also an intimate connection to the infinite.
Some cultures hold that to name something truely is to own it. I would say that to be able to truely comprehend something is to partake it in and become part of it in some way.
Yeah, trippy I know
That’s the way my head works.
As a city kid I had never before really seen it.
I have no response to this. Other than solid gobsmackedness.
I had a similar self realization moment, however I attribute the serenity of seeing a clock tower reflecting in a pool of water during a sunset and being at peace with myself and my future to the bag of mushrooms I ate an hour earlier.
Mushrooms are good! Mushroom season is coming right up, here.
Oooooh! I cannot wait. I’m gonna eat a gazillion pounds!
Yes, I was “hung-over” …but very alert after vomiting the quart of milk I had just gulped down.
That’s the first part of feeling the Universe! Everyone knows that…
*falls off chair laughing *
I’m chalking it up to learned helplessness. (hat tip to my ole psyche prof) I truly believe people have no idea how they would go about inducing any change.
Oly,
From yesterday;
I bet if you were to peek over your wall there’d be a writhing rug of black widows over there, interspersed with a few clean-picked bird skeletons…
I’m really glad I didn’t read that until today. I probably wouldn’t have slept too well last night.
Would Oly prefer to confront a Black Widow or a Camel Spider?
Bill, I am sure it wouldn’t matter to Oly Gal, she’d confront Godzilla, if you gave her a chance.
Hmmm…is that a compliment?
Anyway, I only would only confront Godzilla if he were trampling precious wetlands or else Trader Joe’s. He can go ahead and trample Tokyo, completely without interference from me.
*waves hand in a gracious invitation to a mass-trampling *
Or, better yet, I would ask if I could have a ride on his knobby green monster head, and then I would guide him to some spots I’d like to see trampled. Like the Olympia Master Builders offices, as long as he tiptoed on the way to and from there. Another good spot would be Lacey stopping at the city limits. Renton also s*cks.
But then it’s back in the sea and start wading for Tokyo again, Mr. Monster Man.
I’m home today with the littleman who is sick. He is napping now.
The stories I hear at work are getting nuttier by the day. A colleague let a subordinate borrow $30k to keep a house out of foreclosure. Fortunately the losing party is well funded and not the violent type, otherwise they’d be on my radar.
Not the kinda thing that makes the work day easier…
Whoa! Kiss that $30K goodbye.
Or does your colleague have “family” connections?
“Or does your colleague have “family” connections?”
Naw, straight up DINKS in their forties.
Maybe that’s why he was so upset the other day.
Liquidity bubble sending stocks, oil, and gold into the stratosphere.
Good day for Viking currencies, too:
USD-SEK 6.9514 -0.0532 -0.7602% 14:38
USD-DKK 5.0595 -0.0226 -0.4452% 14:38
USD-NOK 5.6958 -0.0380 -0.6622% 14:38
(Percentage declines represent decrease in foreign currency price of the dollar…)
Source: Bloomberg
Possible silver lining: Nominal US housing prices are likely to stay firm or increase so long as the dollar keeps falling…
That seems to be the plan.
Anything to prop up housing prices- in the short term anyway. Unfortunately, a lack of disposable income due to the outrageous cost of shelter will be the nail in the coffin for many, many businesses both private and public. This will also exacerbate an unemployment situation already spiraling out of control, leading to even lower wages due to an unheard of surplus of cheap labor. In turn, housing prices will crumble into oblivion.
“The O.C.”
(Hwy plays Sonny & Cher’s…”and the beat goes on, and the beat goes on…”)
Who’s in trouble: Big O.C. loan defaults:
http://lansner.freedomblogging.com/defaults/
(Hwy licks .28 cent stamp… sends postcard to God: “…Please close this deal ASAP!”)
BWAHAHAHicHAHAHicHAHAHAHAHicHAHAHic* (DennisN™)
Rush Limbaugh says he’s trying to purchase Rams:
LA Times October 6, 2009
(…The Rams went 2-14 in 2008 and have lost their last 14 games.)
THE 10 COMMANDMENTS
The real reason that we can’t have the Ten
Commandments posted in a courthouse or Congress is this –
you cannot post ‘Thou Shalt Not Steal’ ‘Thou
Shalt Not Commit Adultery’ and ‘Thou Shall Not
Lie’ in a building full of lawyers, judges and
politicians …. it creates a hostile work environment.
it creates a hostile work environment.
Awesome!
Never thought of it that way. It makes a lot of sense though.
“…it creates a hostile work environment.”
“YOU LIE!”
There’s that word again: “South Carolina”
“Thanksgiving dinner with the “TrueBeliever™”/ “TrueDeceiver’s™” siblings”… 49 days & counting
Define “Thou”?
Billy Clit-on
Is is is, or is is is?
On the last day of the convention in Philadelphia that gave us the United States Constitution, 81 year old Ben Franklin said…
“I agree to this Constitution with all its faults, if they are such; because I think a general Government necessary for us, and there is no form of Government but what may be a blessing to the people if well administered, and believe farther that this is likely to be well administered for a course of years, and can only end in Despotism, as other forms have done before it, when the people shall become so corrupted as to need despotic Government, being incapable of any other.”
Ben’s foresight was remarkable. Although the U.S. has not achieved despotism in the classic sense it is well on its way toward it and only a small portion of the population appears to be aware of it. Too few to matter.
Jim Quinn delves into this crisis and speculates that we might have been better off in the long run to have stuck with the Articles of Confederation instead of throwing them in the trash can and creating a Constitution that would inevitably lead to the creation of and eventual destruction of a democracy.
Quinn also explains why Ron Paul could never get elected President of the United States. “His message is not sellable to the American public. It would require sacrifice, self discipline, living within your means, exhibiting humbleness in foreign policy, and following the Constitution of the United States. Bingo!
Its great if your a lobbyist and you can get Politicians to vote in laws and
bail outs that will usurp the Constitution . Check and balance system has failed now because the lobbying of Politicians is off the charts .
(Hwy re-edits for Alaska & Hawaii):
“Quinn also explains why …( Any Amish) …could never get elected President of the United States. “His message is not sellable to the American public. It would require sacrifice, self discipline, living within your means, exhibiting humbleness in foreign policy, and following the Constitution of the United States.”
There are “things” in those two “states” …you will never find in… South Carolina!
“81 year old Ben Franklin…”
(Hwy fast forwards to: “The Current Era”
“Why I’m from France, I’m 15, my name is Cheri…this silly “little” thing… it’s call viagra…”
U.S. Economy on Mend, Housing Poised for Rebound, LaVorgna Says
Oct. 6 (Bloomberg) — The U.S. economy is on the mend and housing is poised for a rebound, said Joseph LaVorgna, chief U.S. economist at Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. in New York.
“The momentum in the economy is moving forward,” LaVorgna said today in an interview on Bloomberg Radio.
Housing is close to a turnaround because “we have had a tremendous improvement on inventories,” he said. “We are much closer to a housing bottom than many believe.”
Combined sales of new and existing homes were up 15 percent in August from January, when they reached the lowest level since comparable records began in 1999, according to figures from the Commerce Department and the National Association of Realtors.
The increase in purchases trimmed the number of houses on the market to 3.88 million, the fewest since March 2006.
At the current sales pace it would take 8.5 months to sell all the previously owned homes on the market, compared with 11.3 months in April 2008, the highest level since at least 1999. For new houses, supply dropped to 7.3 months in August, the shortest period since January 2007.
Rising demand is giving homebuilding a boost. Private residential construction climbed 4.7 percent in August from the prior month, the biggest gain since November 1993, according to data from the Commerce Department. Declines in residential construction have trimmed gross domestic product by one percentage point on average since 2006.
I guess he didn’t get the shadow inventory memo or the memo saying rental vacancies are at an all time high.
NASA contractor laying off 550 engineers, others
(AP)
SALT LAKE CITY — The phase-out of the space shuttle program brought 550 layoffs on Tuesday to a Utah company that makes the booster rockets.
ATK Space Systems said it was handing out pink slips to engineers, factory workers and others at three Utah locations.
The company, a business unit of Minneapolis-based Alliant Techsystems Inc., is developing NASA’s powerful moon rocket as a replacement for the space shuttle. But funding for that program is uncertain, and the initial work isn’t enough to maintain a full work force.
The layoffs will leave ATK Space Systems with around 3,900 employees at its Clearfield headquarters, a factory in Magna and a test facility in Promontory.
The company alerted workers to plans for the reductions in July. More than 130 of the employees voluntarily accepted a layoff. Along with others, they will get a severance package of up to a half-year’s wages.
Some of the layoffs were blamed on the end of production for the government’s Minuteman III ballistic missile program.
Despite the cutbacks, the company believes it has a secure future in aerospace work and said it was working to secure more defense or NASA contract work.
ATK successfully test fired NASA’s powerful moon rocket last month in Promontory, 65 miles north of Salt Lake City. A first attempt in August was scrubbed because of problems with a computer component on the ground test system.
That is an age old story in Aerospace. We go through big up and down cycles. You just begin to expect it after a while.
We have a core group of people and a bunch of people and then a lot of klingons.
“…fired NASA’s powerful moon rocket last month in Promontory, 65 miles north of Salt Lake City.”
Why I love engklish… (especially when it relates to Utarr)
prom·on·to·ry [ prómmən tàwree ] (plural prom·on·to·ries)
2. projecting part of bodily organ: a prominent or protruding part of an organ.
Wow. I just saw a commercial for CNN which said “forget about keeping up with the Jones’, you better worry about keeping up with the Garcia’s.” Then, it advertised some program “Latinos in America”. I wonder if this show will highlight the fact that this explosion, and I mean explosion, in the Hispanic population is due, almost entirely, to illegal immigration.
That wouldn’t be PC, now would it?
Even more worrisome is the implication threat that we will have to worry about keeping up uneducated laborers. Perhaps they are tryin to tell us what kind of jobs will be available in the US.
A possible future healine story:
The commodities bubble: how rampant global speculation led to a mammoth detachment of prices from fundamentals, and carnage unseen in several centuries.
jeff sachs columbia
The essence of the current downturn is finance,” Mr. Sachs said. “It’s a Wall Street crisis. A crisis made down the block.” He said, and “if you look under the rubble you can figure out what happened and why.”
First, “a long bout of easy credit championed by Alan Greenspan and the Fed outside of the normal boundaries of monetary policy,” which came together with “a nearly complete deregulation of the financial sector contrary to almost everything we know about the risks of a highly leveraged financial system.”
“This is flagrant irresponsibility,” he said. “This isn’t a matter of one’s market philosophy, just profound irresponsibility.” Later, though, he said Mr. Greenspan’s ideology was possibly at fault, given his “Ayn Rand” philosophy that markets take care of themselves “until he discovered the flaw of his theory later.”
Mr. Sachs also spoke harshly of the Clinton and Bush administrations. “We arrived at this cliff through the aggressively irresponsibility of two U.S. administrations in a row,” he said, accusing them of bending to the will of the nation’s biggest lobbying group — the financial industry.
“Where were the regulators? Consciously and deliberately kept out of the scene,” he said. “This led to a bubble financially that was most notable in the housing sector…and Alan Greenspan added fuel to the fire by keeping interest rates around 1%” from 2002 through early 2005.
“You get credit for stopping a Depression but I don’t want to give too much credit because the people who stopped it were the people who started it also,” said Mr. Sachs.
But “unfettered” markets DO take care of themselves. Just not in a way that benefits anybody but the very wealthy.
You don’t like lower home prices?
And how is it that lower home prices benefit the wealthy?
I am missing the point of your post…
I guess the last question is, how do you know anything about “unfettered” free markets, given the Fed-administered straight jacket in which the housing and other US asset markets have operated for decades?
Straight jacketed? Are you kidding? Consumer protection laws were gutted over the last 20 years.
Home prices are only down an avg of 20% off peak, which still puts them 50%+ over what they were just 6 years ago.
That’s like saying gas prices are down compared to earlier this year but still extremely high compared to 3 years ago.
It’s all meaningless, especially in the face of J6P’s wages didn’t keep anywhere near up with 25%+ inflation.
Eco - I’m amazed at how you just throw numbers and facts out there that you pull out of your @ss.
“We arrived at this cliff through the aggressively irresponsibility of two U.S. administrations in a row,”
How soon do we go over? Not that I am in any hurry — I will rent forever if housing prices are artificially propped up forever. The oversupply that will result from the current efforts to prop up home prices are certain to keep downward pressure on rents for decades going forward…
After over five years of living in a rental with no A/C (for the few weeks we need it, especially at night with the coastal humidity), I’m seriously considering installing A/C in our rental. Why? Because we just might end up being here a whole lot longer than we had anticipated, as I was hoping to buy between 2010 and 2012. Doesn’t look like that will be happening with the way the PTB is manipulating things.
We have somehow also managed to survive sans AC for five years. Luckily San Diego has one of the best climates in the country, save for the few days a decade when a wild fire is bearing down on your neighborhood or when the temperature is tipping 100 degrees F.
“save for the few days a decade when a wild fire is bearing down on your neighborhood or when the temperature is tipping 100 degrees F.”
Huh? I too live in San Diego without AC (eight summers now) and can tell you there are more than a few days a decade where the temp gets over 100. Of course, I think you are coastal whereas I am in east county, but still - we have a lot of hot weather and I still remember the day it hit 117 at my house. (And I couldn’t hit the mall or a movie because I was too worried about my pets so I stayed home icing them and sweating!)
Dang it - I wanna house! With solar AC!!
You can buy portable air conditioners you can roll from room to room. You just need to have window you can stick the hose out of.
“…east county,…”
It’s different there. We are in North County — almost coastal, at least…
I think we are even closer to the coast than you, PB, but Mr. CA Renter and I are heat wimps.
To be honest, I haven’t had A/C since about 1993 (though one house did have a swamp cooler), and I used to live in Woodland Hills in the San Fernando Valley — one of the hottest parts of L.A. west of the desert. We’re just getting older and would really like to cool things off before we go to bed. That’s really the only time we’d use it except for those particularly hot/humid days we get a few times a year…that, and fire season. BTW, it’s the humidity that kills us near the coast. It can be 85, but with almost 100% humidity, it’s worse than 115 in Phoenix, IMHO.
Hey, folks out west in Mountain & Pacific time zones. DO watch Lehrer NewsHour tonight, there’s a really fun segment on the NYC commercial RE crash.
Oooh, thanks for the tip.
Relative to Jon’s post above, where he worries about losing equity in the Orlando house he bought in 2001, I think he has good reason to worry. A TV news show here this afternoon said that Orlando-area prices are down 36% year-over-year (I think the months were Aug-Aug).
While there probably is more to it than that, I think that our long-ago predictions here of a return to 1998-level prices are on track. Lower rents are forcing lower prices even while mortgage rates are low; when mortgage rates tick up, the show will be over for an awful lot of folks in this area.
Glad I’m not an appraiser htese days - I’d imagine they’re about as popular as repo guys.
Whoops - didn’t mean to mis-represent Jon - he mentioned his Florida house, not an Orlando one.
I’m seeing houses of decent quality (but frame as opposed to block), built since 1990, asking for close to $60/s.f. But sure enough, if I stopped renting and bought, rents would tank farther. Once we pass through the 1998-price mark, my knees might weaken.
“I shall not cause harm to any vehicle nor the personal contents thereof, nor through inaction let that vehicle or the personal contents thereof come to harm. It’s what I call the repo code, kid. Don’t forget it — etch it in your brain. Not many people got a code to live by anymore.”
- Repo Man
Did he really say that? That is one of the best movies ever, after ‘The Godfather’ and ‘Dune’.
…I forgot that. How could I forget that? Did I forget that?
Man, if I did, I spurn myself in shame.
I forgot it too. I could use age as an excuse. Meet you in Spurnsville.
Is there a good bar in Spurnsville? Because then I won’t mind as much.
Great news for renters here: Apartment vacancies are continuing to rise, which will put downward pressure on rents for the foreseeable future. This trickles over to the accidental landlords of housing that would be owner-occupied if it had not been purchased as investment housing. Those places will have to compete with apartments for tenants, forcing a choice between offering lower rental rates or holding on to a vacant property.
Sorry, landlords (accidental or otherwise)…
And may the power be with you, fellow renters
* The Wall Street Journal
* REAL ESTATE
* OCTOBER 6, 2009
Apartment Glut Expands
Vacancy Rate Rises to 7.8% as Unemployment Dents Demand; Monthly Rents Slip
By NICK TIMIRAOS
Apartment vacancies hit their highest point since 1986, surging in cities from Raleigh, N.C., to Tacoma, Wash., as rising unemployment continued to chip away at demand during the traditionally strong summer rental months.
The U.S. vacancy rate reached 7.8%, a 23-year high, according to Reis Inc., a New York real-estate research firm that tracks vacancies and rents in the top 79 U.S. markets. The rate is expected to climb further in the fall and winter, when rental demand is weaker, pushing vacancies to the highest levels since Reis began its count in 1980.
Meanwhile, the air leaving the market is driving rents down, most sharply in markets that had been chugging along until a year ago, when unemployment accelerated, including Tacoma; San Jose, Calif.; and Orange County, Calif.
In New York, Jennifer Hyman rented a one-bedroom apartment in July at a monthly rate of $1,950 — down from $2,450 for the previous tenant — when she returned to the city after graduating from Harvard Business School. Her first month’s rent was free — and her landlord painted the apartment, scrubbed the floors and added window coverings.
“The experience was night-and-day different from before,” said Ms. Hyman, who had rented other Manhattan apartments between 2002 and 2007, each time paying a brokers’ fee and feeling pressured to sign a lease the minute she found an apartment. Now, she says, “Renters are the ones with the power.”
Driving the change is the troubled employment market, which is closely tied to rentals. With unemployment at 9.8% — a 26-year high — more would-be renters are doubling up or moving in with family and friends during periods of job loss. Landlords have been particularly battered because unemployment has been higher among workers under 35 years old, who are more likely to rent. Nationally, effective rents have fallen by 2.7% over the past year, to around $972.
…
Would love to have that happen. I posted above that I got my lease renewal form.
On the good side, I can go month-to-month at the same rent payment last November that got me six months lease.
I’m thinking of going for month-to-month. A better opportunity on the right coast may come up and I want to be able to boogie on out of here without holding the bag of three or four months left of a lease.
I agree with that logic BIL.
This is freakin’ awesome! Why bother blowing $XXX,XXX on a current used home purchase when you could help put unemployed home builders back on their feet by building a new home on a lot that cost you only $XX,XXX a couple of years from now? Wouldn’t it be better anyway to help stimulate a sagging economy through new construction than to help some bank unload its used McCrapshacks at premium prices?
Shades of Green
Chris Pummer
Oct. 7, 2009, 12:01 a.m. EDT
Escaping house arrest
Five developments that will signal recovery in full swing
…
When it comes to real-estate values — as with any value judgment — perception is reality. What follows are five housing-market developments that we’ll need to see before we can say a recovery is in full swing:
1. The cost of a lot
While the housing market’s retreat has been all too painfully clear, what’s virtually uncovered in the media is the collapse of America’s land underfoot.
When a market devalues new well-outfitted homes by 50% and more, rest assured it isn’t paying any mind to the value of undeveloped land or even improved lots. That market blindness — and lenders’ reluctance as market makers to extend land loans as a result — has led to a slashing of prices that will only come to light 18 months from now at the rate it’s been ignored.
In Florida, Arizona and Nevada, desirable lots can be bought for under $10,000 in cities and towns on major “Best Places to Retire” lists. The same holds for small, coastal towns along both seaboards, where $30,000 will buy land within 100 yards of a beach that would have set you back $150,000 three years ago if you weren’t wise to the guise.
At this ignored rate of decline, we may soon see the federal government offering 3% lot loans to first-time buyer/builders to free up a residential-land market free enterprise completely pulverized. If only private capital hadn’t petered out and forgotten that to all Americans, dirt-cheap land is a Louisiana Purchase childhood dream to seize upon.
…
Daum even i can pay cash for that and a uzed trialuh.
desirable lots can be bought for under $10,000 in cities and towns on major “Best Places to Retire”
The gold price breaching $1000 seems to be a game changer, as currency and PM traders seem to have lost faith in the strong dollar talk from the Treasury and the Fed’s hints that interest rates will be raised to rein in inflation. I guess with an unhinged dollar, the sky is the limit going forward for US housing and stock prices? Why don’t y’all go out and buy an extra foreclosure home to make sure you are adequately hedged against the coming wave of inflation?
Gold price hits record on plan to ditch dollar
Web posted at: 10/7/2009 8:7:54
Source ::: AFP/Reuters
London/Dubai/ISTANBUL: The price of gold struck an all-time high at $1,043.78 an ounce yesterday as the dollar fell on a reported plan by Gulf states to stop using the greenback for oil trading.
Gold reached the level in late afternoon trade on the London Bullion Market, beating the previous record high of $1,032.70 an ounce struck in March, 2008.
“Gold prices hit an all-time high as the dollar weakens,” said Barclays Capital precious metals analyst Suki Cooper. “The dollar weakness appears to be related to … (reported) secret talks about oil being priced in a basket of currencies including gold rather than the dollar, which has added to concerns about the future role of the dollar in international financial markets.”
The dollar’s future as the world’s top currency was thrown into doubt yesterday as a report said Arab states had launched secret moves with China and Russia to stop using the greenback for oil trading.
Meanwhile, big oil producing nations denied a British newspaper report yesterday that Gulf states were in secret talks with Russia, China, Japan and France to replace the US dollar with a basket of currencies in trading oil.
…
I assume you are saying this in jest - but, would it ever be wise to buy a cheap house for cash to hedge against inflation? I may want to buy one back in AZ as a vacation home. My problem right now is that I may not get down to it for the next 20 years. Currently have all my cash sitting in the bank(s). Maybe I spend 20% of my cash on a house.
“The gold price breaching $1000 seems to be a game changer”
Are you coming over to the dark side PB?
Latvia…domino…about to fall.
Big bumps lie ahead on the road to recovery and reform
Web posted at: 10/7/2009 8:11:42
Source ::: FINANCIAL TIMES
By Martin Wolf
A year ago, the world economy fell into a deep recession. Now, happily, we see financial stabilisation and economic recovery. But we must not declare victory. The world could still make two mistakes: first, we might withdraw stimulus too soon; second, we might lose the opportunity for reform. We must avoid both dangers. That is the lesson I learnt at the annual meetings of the International Monetary Fund and World Bank in Istanbul. So where are we and where do we need to go? Think of this in terms of five ‘r’s: rescue; recovery; rebalancing; regulation; and reform.
…
No mention of jobs?
Oh dear.
From a FT article by Martin Wolf (I just posted a link):
…
Doing what the bankers want is also politically poisonous. No bonuses should be paid until banks reach adequate levels of capital. Better still, as Andrew Smithers of London-based Smithers & Co has argued, let us force banks to raise the needed capital and if they cannot, let governments provide it. In the longer run, at least three further changes are needed: a resolution regime for all financial institutions, with costs falling on creditors; the movement of virtually all trades into organised clearing houses or exchanges; and systems of remuneration which ensure that the management of rescued institutions always loses heavily.
…
The bonus payments out of tax dollars amount to robbing Main Street to pay Wall Street. The politicians whose actions supported these bonus payments should be rooted out, tarred and feathered.
WASHINGTON — Consumers, confronting job losses and weak income growth, likely cut back on their borrowing for a seventh consecutive month in August.
Wall Street economists expect that consumer borrowing fell $10 billion at an annual rate in August, according to a survey by Thomson Reuters. The Federal Reserve is scheduled to release the report at 3 p.m. EDT Wednesday.
In July, consumers slashed their borrowing by $21.6 billion, the most on records dating from 1943. That was a 10.4 percent cut at an annual rate, the steepest percentage drop since a 16.3 percent decline in June 1975.
Consumer credit fell by $15.5 billion in June, or 7.4 percent.
The report covers credit cards, auto loans and other revolving credit, and doesn’t include mortgages or other debt secured by real estate, such as home equity lines of credit.
The declines reflect both a drop in demand for credit by consumers, as well as tighter credit standards among banks and other lenders.
Lower salaries, less borrowing, more fees = less spending
Ok, Let me get this straight.
1) Consumers “deleverage”. (Love that word. Beats “Green shoots” hands down.)
2) Hours worked per week still declining.
3) Top line earnings growth is AWOL.
4) Weekly Household Income is declining.
I’m confused. Where is this recovery again?
Roidy
P.S. It’s just too big. It’s gonna hurt. They can’t fix it.
Didn’t you read Citigroup’s analysis of the New Plutonomy? We don’t need no stinkin’ consumers.
They truly believe they can have a 75% consumer driven economy without the consumers.
Hurt? You ain’t seen nothin’ yet if they don’t get their recto-cranial-inversion taken care of.
ROTFLMAO
Roidy
Oct. 7 (Bloomberg) — For the first time in three decades, a U.S. recession may wipe out all the jobs created during the previous expansion, according to Ed McKelvey, a senior economist at Goldman Sachs Group Inc. in New York.
Pending payroll revisions and the likelihood that employment will keep dropping in coming months mean the 8.3 million jobs created from 2003 through 2007 will be lost, McKelvey wrote in an Oct. 6 note to clients.
The only other time that’s happened in the post-World War II era was during the “aborted” recovery sandwiched between the 1980 and 1981-82 recessions, McKelvey said. “The current situation is obviously quite different,” he wrote.
The payroll count in September stood just 1.13 million above the August 2003 through reached in the aftermath of the 2001 contraction. About 824,000 more jobs may be subtracted from the count for the 12 months through last March when the figures are officially revised early next year, a preliminary Labor Department estimate showed last week.
Goldman’s research shows a “loose” relationship between the direction of that revision and adjustments to payrolls in the following months, McKelvey said.
“Coupled with the size of the upcoming revisions, this suggests fairly strongly that the benchmark revision next February is likely to include a downgrade of the trend in payrolls since March,” he wrote.
300,000 ‘Cushion’
With a “cushion” of only about 300,000 remaining, the probability is “high” that all the jobs created during the expansion will be lost, he said.
probably too late, but how did that recovery after 1980 get “aborted”?
No wonder I’m seeing fewer illegals in my town. Many have gone home, unable to find work.
I’m not seeing that, myself. And, from what I’ve read, most illegals are staying put rather than leaving because there isn’t much promise back home, and they can milk our services for every penny they’re worth.
There are quite a few Brazilians returning to Brazil. One reason is that the economy in Brazil has been less impacted by the crisis and another is that they tell me it’s better to be broke in Brazil than to be broke in the USA.
It’s a funny place. If you are in a traumatic accident or shot or something drastic, you can be treated for free in an OK public hospital. (in major cities) But if you require anything ongoing, you’d better have private health insurance.
I am visiting the USA now for the first time in 18 months. A lot of people are really bummed out. Many friends are dealing with the recession with pretty good attitudes and many more don’t know what’s really happening.
Most of our illegal aliens are coming from Mexico.
Where’s my “fix” this morning?
I am about to have seizures….
Please…..
Read all the great comments:
UPDATED: 8:05 am EDT October 7, 2009
DETROIT — Detroit’s homeless and low-income residents have another opportunity for a chance at millions of stimulus dollars.
The money is available to help low-income residents from becoming homeless and homeless residents to find housing.
Thousands of people lined up Tuesday.
Some people in line falsely believed they were registering for $3,000 stimulus checks from the Obama Administration.
City officials told Local 4 that Detroit was granted $15 million to help residents pay bills and their rent or find temporary housing for the homeless.
Watch: Thousands Line Up For Stimulus Check Applications
The Detroit Planning and Development Department (PDD) is taking applications Tuesday and Wednesday for the Homelessness Prevention and Rapid Re-Housing Program.
The applications deadline is Oct. 7.
The remaining 5,000 applications can be picked up Wednesday at the Cobo Hall in the Riverview Ballroom from 10 a.m. to 2 p.m.
Already filled out applications can be submitted at the Cobo Hall from 10 a.m. to 2 p.m. or sent in the mail to the Detroit Planning and Development Department at 65 Cadillac Square, Suite 1400, Detroit, MI., 48226.
http://www.clickondetroit.com/news/21215978/detail.html
Oh man, I wuz in line. I thought I was going to get me a ‘ho.
* The Wall Street Journal
* OCTOBER 7, 2009, 1:18 P.M. ET
U.S., Lenders Seek Ways to Head Off New Mortgage-Default Wave
By JESSICA HOLZER
WASHINGTON — Lenders and government officials are searching for ways to head off a wave of defaults on pay-option adjustable-rate mortgages, which are threatening to become the next storm to hit the U.S. housing market.
Option ARMs aren’t easy to modify because of the risky features of the loans and their concentration in states where property values have plummeted the most. Once the rage in Florida and Nevada, the loans catered to creditworthy borrowers who had to stretch a great deal to buy a home in an overheated market.
Administration officials have been talking to mortgage investors and servicers about ways to help option ARM borrowers avoid foreclosure, but the parties don’t appear close to a solution. A major sticking point: whether lenders need to forgive loan principal to help the borrowers stay in their homes.
“All sides are talking,” said Laurie Goodman, a senior managing director of broker/dealer Amherst Securities Group. “The servicers and investors have different solutions to the problem. Servicers are more reluctant than investors to forgive principal.”
Mortgage investors contend that forgiving loan principal is crucial because so many option ARM borrowers are underwater, owing much more than their homes are worth. Meanwhile, servicers favor taking other measures before writing off any loan principal. The government risks a backlash from borrowers who are paying off their loans in full if it takes steps to encourage principal forgiveness.
A Treasury Department spokeswoman declined to comment.
…
The government risks a backlash from borrowers who are paying off their loans in full if it takes steps to encourage principal forgiveness.
——————–
This is something I’ve tried desperately to get across to politicians and MSM reporters when writing to them in response to the idiotic idea of outright principal reductions. If they do that, expect 100% defaults from all the other mortgage borrowers.
There has never been a better time to lease retail space:
* The Wall Street Journal
* COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE
* OCTOBER 8, 2009
Retail Vacancies Hit Multiyear Highs
By KRIS HUDSON
When consumers start their holiday shopping in earnest next month, they will find fewer stores competing for their business as vacancy rates at malls and shopping centers have risen to multiyear highs.
According to Reis Inc., a New York real-estate research firm, 10.3% of the retail space at U.S. shopping centers — open-air centers typically anchored by a grocery store or big-box retailer — was vacant in the third quarter. That was up from 8.4% in the same period a year earlier and was the highest vacancy rate since 1992. At enclosed malls, the vacancy rate rose two percentage points to 8.6%, the highest rate since Reis began tracking mall data in 2000.
The hardest-hit retail properties were those completed this year. Of those, 30% opened half-empty or worse, according to Reis data, which cover the 77 largest U.S. markets.
Mall and shopping-center owners are reeling from two years of flat to declining retail sales and waves of store closures. Many are still trying to find tenants to fill hundreds of vacancies created by the closures last year and early this year of chains including Linens ‘n Things Inc., Circuit City Stores Inc. and Gottschalks Inc. Meanwhile, the closures continue to mount, with chains such as Blockbuster Inc., Hollywood Entertainment Corp.’s Game Crazy, Zale Corp. and AnnTaylor Stores Corp. cumulatively closing more than 1,000 stores.
The Federal Reserve has tallied nearly 8,300 store closings announced by retailers so far this year, including more than 1,500 large anchor stores. Last year, the International Council of Shopping Centers, an industry trade association, counted 6,900 such announced closures. The next-highest annual total recorded by the trade association was 7,000 in 2001.
As demand for retail space plummeted, average retail lease rates continued to decline in the third quarter, down 3.7% to $16.89 per square foot for shopping centers and off 3.5% to $39.18 for malls. And the outlook for a recovery in the near future appears bleak. “We don’t see rent levels in retail returning to 2008 levels until 2016,” said Victor Calanog, Reis director of research.
…
I guess it is a great time to rent office space as well as homes?
* The Wall Street Journal
* COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE
* OCTOBER 8, 2009
Office Rents Dive as Vacancies Rise
By CHRISTINA S.N. LEWIS
Rent for office space is falling at the fastest pace in more than a decade as vacancies create a glut and landlords slash prices to attract tenants.
Nationwide, effective office rents fell 8.5% in the third quarter compared with the same period a year ago, the steepest year-over-year decline since 1995, according to Reis Inc., a New York real-estate research firm.
The decline came as companies returned a net 19.6 million square feet of space to landlords in the third quarter, slightly more than in the second quarter. For the first three quarters of this year, the net decline in occupied space totaled a record 64.2 million square feet, the highest so-called negative absorption recorded since Reis began tracking the data in 1980. (That doesn’t count space that left the market as a result of the 2001 terrorist attacks.)
The vacancy rate, meanwhile, hit 16.5%, a five-year high, according to Reis.
Declining rents and rising vacancies in the office sector signal more woes for the commercial-real-estate market, which already faces a lack of credit and plummeting property values. With landlords more likely to default, financial institutions, which hold trillions of dollars in commercial-real-estate debt also face more pain. “It means more losses for the banks, because they will have to write off more bad debt,” said Victor Calanog, director of research for Reis.
…
How is it Obama’s fault the dollar is falling? He is not an independent central bank with a technology called the printing press which essentially determines the dollar-gold exchange rate.
Obama under fire over falling dollar
By Edward Luce and Krishna Guha in Washington
Published: October 7 2009 19:37 | Last updated: October 8 2009 00:30
The falling US dollar is giving ammunition to the critics of the Obama administration and fuelling broader concerns about the potential erosion of America’s reserve currency status.
The depreciation of the US dollar is sparking growing jitters among critics of the Obama administration over the potential loss of America’s reserve currency status. Economists point out that a declining dollar could prove a boon to the US economy in the absence of credible anxiety over inflation.
Republican politicians have highlighted the dollar’s slide as evidence of waning US power.
Sarah Palin, the former vice-presidential Republican candidate, on Wednesday sought to link the dollar decline to rising US indebtedness and dependence on foreign oil. “We can see the effect of this in the price of gold, which hit a record high today in response to fears about the weakened dollar,” she wrote on her Facebook site.
…