Bits Bucket For October 9, 2009
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The Housing Bubble
Examining the home price boom and its effect on owners, lenders, regulators, realtors and the economy as a whole.
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Name:Ben Jones
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U.S. Mortgage Backer May Need Bailout, Experts Say.
New York Times
October 8, 2009
A year after Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac teetered, industry executives and Washington policy makers are worrying that another government mortgage giant could be the next housing domino.
Problems at the Federal Housing Administration, which guarantees mortgages with low down payments, are becoming so acute that some experts warn the agency might need a federal bailout.
Running questions about the F.H.A.’s future — underscored by interviews with policy makers, analysts and home buyers — came to the fore on Thursday on Capitol Hill. In testimony before a House subcommittee, the F.H.A. commissioner, David H. Stevens, assured lawmakers that his agency would not need a bailout and that it was managing its risks.
But he acknowledged that some 20 percent of F.H.A. loans insured last year — and as many as 24 percent of those from 2007 — faced serious problems including foreclosure, offering a preview of a forthcoming audit of the agency’s finances.
Basically it has taken 1 1/2 years of the bubble to whipe out a fairly useful little self supporting program.
Special thanks to Barney Frank on driving this forward and expanding the charter of the FHA.
Would have been nice if FHA/FRE/FAN could have survived all of this.
It would be a lot nicer if government at all levels stayed out of the housing market.
I can’t ever see the mortgage interest deduction ever going away.
Skip,
After a fashion.., ( I ‘can’ ) Just as Deductions begin to fade out after ( I believe ) $115k, it was “sheltering of income” that drove dual-earners into the death-defying stunts we witnessed over the last decade or two!
And what with the deductibility of SECOND home MID, why stop there! In the end, MID was a victim of it’s own success. The Gov. won’t/cant’ afford to allow that many of us to get over extended like that again.
“Would have been nice if FHA/FRE/FAN could have survived all of this.”
Would have been a lot nicer if they had stuck to the three-C’s of lending, and written and bought only debt with a reasonable and responsible level of risk, and priced it accordingly; they _could_ have served as a shining example of the difference between good and bad lending, and come through this downturn unscathed.
Instead, they have danced like good little puppets to the politicians’ twitching strings.
Eff ‘em, and good riddance if they don’t survive. We would be better off with fewer irresponsible actors.
“Would have been a lot nicer if they had stuck to the three-C’s of lending, and written and bought only debt with a reasonable and responsible level of risk, and priced it accordingly;”
But, but then they would have lost market share…..
None of the lenders in any market could. The market was tapped out. Stagnate wages put paid to any more market expansion. Or more precisely, increased profits.
That’s when EVERYBODY started lowering their credit standards.
And that’s why CDOs were credit. Offload the risk and bury the rotten apples.
“…were created…” *sigh*
Last!
…and the last shall be first.
I think Ben put Wmbz’s post 1st
just to like…. um mess with you today…
Like that or hate it, it would be a mistake to end it.
Basically like a lot of things, you have to back away carefully.
Causing another price shock in the middle of this mess would not be a good thing.
No-Money-Down Property Loans That Sank U.K. Housing Return
Oct. 9 (Bloomberg) — Stuart Heathcote and his wife never intended to buy a house this year. Then the U.K. government offered an incentive that changed their minds: a no-money-down mortgage.
It was just the head start they needed to sign a contract for a 135,000-pound ($216,000) three-bedroom house near Birmingham, the country’s second-biggest city. Stuart, who works for the National Health Service, and his wife plan to move in before the end of January.
Easy credit is back in the U.K., and this time the government and homebuilders are making the loans. Seeking to recover from the worst recession in a generation, Britain is helping as many as 10,000 buyers obtain 100 percent financing through a 300-million-pound plan called HomeBuy Direct at a time when mortgages are scarce and, according to Ernst & Young LLC, home prices will “stagnate” for at least two more years.
“It’s a catastrophe waiting to happen,” Robin Hardy, a homebuilding analyst at KBC Peel Hunt, said of the plan. “If the only way a certain bit of the market can work is to lend deposits, those people can’t afford a house. It’s being done for the industry and not for the first-time buyers.”
More than 32,000 potential homebuyers have sought information about the loans, a sign that borrowers aren’t scared off by a home price drop accompanied by rising foreclosures and defaults on high percentage loans that outstripped values.
The patient had a cocaine-related heart attack. But cocaine feels so good. So the answer is - more cocaine!
Geniuses.
ROTFLMAO! The jokes keep right on coming… Wins because he gave hope.
Obama wins Nobel Peace Prize.
President Barack Obama has won the Nobel Peace Prize for giving the world “hope for a better future” and striving for nuclear disarmament, a decision that’s come as a big surprise and provoked strong international criticism as well as praise.
Not a very popular view..
But, since the invention of the nuclear bomb, there hasn’t been another world war (or anything nearly so bloody as WW1/2). I’m not sure getting rid of them is the right answer (although I do agree with stopping idiots/crazies from getting them). We will never NOT have nuclear weapons, which, IMHO, is a very good thing. Frankly, I think that all the wars since WW2 are a direct result of the rest of the world believing (correctly, thus far) that we don’t have the stomach to use a nuke again. As callous as it sounds; if we had (in response to 9/11) dropped a nuke in Afganistan, do you think that we would EVER see those nuts take aim at the US again?
Of course, now I’m going to be called Dick C’s best buddy; but, frankly, I think that the biggest problem the US has had in wars for the past 50 years is our lack of commitment to do what it takes. We lose wars because we’re not “willing” to win them. We should head on over to the Middle East, plant an American flag, and tell the leaders over there that if they don’t get their s**t together we are going to make them into a state, and setup their country as a beach resort for fat, morally bankrupt, heathen Americans. That ought to scare them straight.
The whole point of our wars is sustaining them, not winning them.
The longer they continue the more profits can be made. “Nation building”, give me a f-ing break. How arrogant of us. I remember a political cartoon published during the Serbian conflict. Two muslim men were talking and one says to the other “how can we get the US to help us?”. The other man replies “discover oil”. Not far from the truth my friends.
With that being said, I am all for kicking someones a$$ when it’s warranted.
It sounds like you are describing a country which has privatized its military operations. This is why I disagree with the whole mercenary concept: A military-industrial complex dominated by private industry has great incentive to enter war often and keep fighting as long as possible. The 18-year-old youth of America get to bear the brunt of a policy regime built on endless war.
“This is why I disagree with the whole mercenary concept”
Mercenary forces never “win”, in the end. Think Hessians in the Revolutionary War. However, in the sense that that they tend to draw things out and drain money and resources, that’s a win, I guess.
And not just the military industrial complex.
We are currently fighting many wars:
on poverty,
on drugs,
on illiteracy,
etc.
All of which take dedicated teams and lots of tax money to engage in.
Let’s just appoint some more Czars! No, better yet, let’s appoint overseers more in tune with this Administration’s governing philosophy - Commisars!
Guten tag from Austria. It is funny that you are discussing WWII as we are deciding whether or not to go to Hitler’s place tomorrow. I think we will skip it. I have done enough tours for a while. Just point me to the Jack Daniels, bitte.
I may have a story or two when we get back. I have to give up the Internet connection now. We have a Mozart concert to attend. I hope all is well back in the states. Wiedersehen.
Young men with idle hands are very dangerous. Witness the third Reich. Sending them to war overseas is much safer.
Peace! Peace? Good Lord we cannot have PEACE!!! After all, Jesus endorsed war. He loved war! And he hated poor people. He lived in a mansion and directed military operations across the globe. Just ask the religious right(wrong)…… pffffft… peace….
Well, the Conservative Bible Project will disabuse you of your subversive notions about Jesus propounding peace, Mr. Sarcastic.
(from today’s Globe and Mail)
God help us. From these evil misguided nuts.
Sick. There is nothing sacred, nothing off limits to the creepservatives.
“…all the wars since WW2 are a direct result of the rest of the world believing (correctly, thus far) that we don’t have the stomach to use a nuke again…”
Corollary: All wars before WW2 were a direct result of the entire world believing that nobody possessed a globally-dominant weapon of mass destruction.
OK - that’s kind of like saying the shininess of someone’s new car is due to not having a dump truck full of manure dropped on it. Yeah - technically if you did that it wouldn’t be shiny any more - but I’m not sure I would actually point to that as the cause of its shininess.
I forgot to use my sarcasm tags…
it was widely believed before WWII that there couldn’t possibly be another one. The weapons back then were bad enough.
Thus The Great War (later renamed to be WW1) being known as “The War to End All Wars”.
(not)
Wars never live up to their billing. And if you look at Woodrow Wilson, he was the epitome of hubris and cluelessness - an epic incompetent in the George W. Bush/Donald Rumsfeld model. If we would’ve stayed out of WWI, the English and French would’ve eventually come to terms with the Germans, Adolph Hitler probably would’ve remained a starving artist, and the far worse horrors of WWII could have been averted.
Perpetual wars for perpetual “peace” is a road to ruin.
Sammy,
In spite of conventional wisdom, profit margins for defense contractors actually decline as the conflict drags on.
Returns, defective equip., troubleshooting systems, replacing parts under warranty, constant scrutiny by CONgress etc. The sweet spot is in the ramp up ( when everyone is all hot & bothered ) and the first year.
After ‘that’ ( it’s; you have to ’service’ what you sell! )
“an epic incompetent in the George W. Bush/Donald Rumsfeld model.”
And the crazies won’t be allowed to re-write history when it’s time to reflect on the gargantuan failure associated with these monsters.
Ok, nukes didn’t prevent the “small” wars, but having nukes definitely prevented the US and USSR from having a hot war. The cold war was expensive, but not nearly as costly as the human cost of a nerve gas coated Germany fought over by millions of armed troops.
As callous as it sounds; if we had (in response to 9/11) dropped a nuke in Afganistan, do you think that we would EVER see those nuts take aim at the US again?
Absolutely.
Japan surrendered because they had one of the world’s strongest economies - probably the second strongest at the time, after Germany was destroyed, and they knew that it would be obliterated by us - one way or another - if they didn’t surrender.
Afghanistan has no such strong economy. It’d take hundreds of nukes to make a dent in their opium-based economy. There is no nuclear option for Afghanistan - it wouldn’t do any good, and is a non-factor.
Do you really think that the psychological impact of a nuke or 2 hitting Afghanistan wouldn’t have a massive impact on the people of that country? I disagree, I think that the threat of total annihilation really changes people’s views on things like “should we really fight this holy war against godless heathens who will wipe our entire way of life out”.
I don’t really care about denting their opium/heroin based economy, I just want them to leave us alone forever. For all I care, they can turn that country into one huge shooting gallery (for drugs), I could care less. I just don’t want them to EVER think that attacking the US is a good decision. And, if they knew that attacking the US meant that they, everyone they knew, and everyone they loved would die in a bright flash, I think that they would think twice about it.
However, I’m willing to concede that religion does crazy things to people, and perhaps, they wouldn’t really think twice about it. In which case, every bomb we dropped would be a few less crazies that could think about it at all. Harsh? Yes. Realistic? I’m not sure (I’d like to think no, but; having seen the “tame” religions do crazy sh** before, I can’t say for sure).
Do you think that the present war in the middle east is to curb drug traffic? If so, I need to do more reading; that’s the biggest waste of time/life/money EVER, you will never stop the flow of drugs from countries like those; they will always produce, and we will always consume. Another good reason to end the drug war.. Immediately….
Bah. Man up Mike.
I feel the same way about 75% of the time.
We are losing a few good soldiers over there but I think they understand our other choices are not good.
>choice 1: do nothing and look weak
>choice 2: Ultimate solution
>choice 3: spend a bunch of effort trying to sort out the good guys and bad guys.
We took choice three. From talking to our guys over there, and on this board, seems like they understand this.
Agree about the drug war though. Still another tough problem.
I hate losing our troops and our kids.
The problem is this - we are not at war with “The country of Afghanistan”. There is no single entity to surrender to us after we “win”. And the people we are at war with are not all in Afghanistan, and even not necessarily based there. Many of the 9/11 terrorists lived for years in the U.S. in fact.
That’s not to say it’s not a worth while thing - IMO it is. But it’s not really a war, it’s a police exercise done by the military - doing the best we can to route out those that have done us harm.
And yeah I know the war isn’t about drugs - my statement was just illustrating how Afghanistan has virtually no economy to decimate, and what economy they do have is agriculture - it could just as well have been corn - just so happens in their case its mostly poppies. As such - there’s no way from a cost benefit perspective you could make a dent in their economy with nukes. In Japan’s case it was a country where just a dozen or so nukes could have decimated the economy, and thus they had a lot more to lose.
From a people perspective - the same principle applies. Japan had a *much* denser population than Afghanistan, and thus stood to lose much more with just a few nukes. Al Quaeda etc. has already demonstrated that they don’t give a rat’s patootie about civilians - they know that if we tried any kind of nukes it would hurt us more politically than it would hurt them militarily or even psychologically. Militarily - even if we made a Safeway parking lot out of the whole country - there are still tons more in Pakistan, Iran, Saudia Arabia, Africa, etc.
I think it would have the exact same effect it would have if you did the same to us: piss us off beond belief.
One thought on the whole appraisal thing is to link loan valuations to long term property values and comps rather than spikes. The whole problem with the bubble is that prices went critical at some point driven by wild speculation and a loan industry willing to go along. Had loan values only increased by 5% a year, the bubble would have stopped short.
It was pretty obvious to most here on this board that when prices double in just a year or two there is a problem. What amazed me is the willingness of the banking establishements to go along. I know it was all about bonuses and they did not care if the person borrowing would ever repay the loan…
The nukes didn’t really affect Japan’s thinking.
The destruction of Hiroshima and Nagasaki pale before the much more destructive napalm raid on Tokyo on 10 March 1945.
DennisN,
Seriously? Don’t believe I’ve ever heard of that event? Not… that I doubt you!
“Militarily - even if we made a Safeway parking lot out of the whole country - there are still tons more in Pakistan, Iran, Saudia Arabia, Africa, etc.”
And to tie this back to the question of whether they would attack again (ala 9/11) I believe as well that the answer is yes. In fact, I think they’d get a lot more help. Al Queda is trying to paint the US as a heartless/godless nation of infidels. A nuke dropped on ‘innocents’ would help them prove it.
The nukes didn’t really affect Japan’s thinking.
The destruction of Hiroshima and Nagasaki pale before the much more destructive napalm raid on Tokyo on 10 March 1945.
Why then did Japan wait until just after the nukes to surrender, rather than after the firebombing raid?
I’m curious what makes you think this way. It goes against anything I’ve ever read or seen, and against logic.
Dennis is right, the firebombings of March 10, 1945 are widely cited as the event that led the Emperor to start pursuing peace. The fact that surrender didn’t come until after the atomic bombings reveals the fractious relations amongst those in power. (mainly the Army v. everyone else)
The firebombings themselves were absolutely horrific and the reported death tolls vary consdierably from the census figures of the obliterated districts. Firestorms do unimaginable things. They say that afterwards one could see clear across the city.
Nasty stuff.
tie this back to the question of whether they would attack again (ala 9/11) I believe as well that the answer is yes.
I don’t believe that. I believe the majority of the world community would reign down on anyone who would attempt this again. Not that it couldn’t happen, I just think the world psyche has changed and the consequences would obliterate those who ‘did’ ‘does’ this. I hope things have changed enough to make this an act that will never be attempted again.
Smaller acts probably.
“Japan surrendered because they had one of the world’s strongest economies - probably the second strongest at the time, after Germany was destroyed, and they knew that it would be obliterated by us - one way or another - if they didn’t surrender.”
Not arguing with you at all. It’s a fascinating comment. Yet it seems so at odds w/the whole kamikaze mystique.
whole kamikaze mystique.
doesn’t really apply to the population at large. Soldiers were trained, psychologically indoctrinated, brainwashed.
The problem with nukes in Afghanistan/Iraq as I see it, is that it does no good to nuke kitty litter. Drop a nuke in Europe/Russia/Japan, and a lot of cool stuff that took a lot of time and energy to make is gone. Drop a nuke in Afghanistan, well like White Sands, who cares. It’s not that I’m against the idea as much as I wonder, what’s the point?
WRONG TARGET mike:
The target is the MOSQUES they are the enemy, we don’t have the guts to fight a religious Jihad against the radical muslims, so we kill/sacrifice 5000 of our troops, and hope Americans don’t mind.
============================================
if we had (in response to 9/11) dropped a nuke in Afganistan, do you think that we would EVER see those nuts take aim at the US again?
Nukes are great for deterring a relatively equal enemey (ie USSR) but it’s a lot harder to use them on a much weaker enemy who doesn’t wear a uniform nor have clear borders(Al Queda). Public opinion, both internal and external to the US, would show a lot of oposition to nuking a nation that is not a united enemy nor one that could defeat you.
I’d say the most significant factor in not having a war that resembles WWI/II since the fall of the Warsaw Pact is the lack of an enemy for NATO. You can’t have a conventional large scale war without somewhat equal sides.
“We lose wars because we’re not “willing” to win them. We should head on over to the Middle East, plant an American flag, and tell the leaders over there that if they don’t get their s**t together we are going to make them into a state, and setup their country as a beach resort for fat, morally bankrupt, heathen Americans. That ought to scare them straight.”
lol
That was the old standby US back-up “Plan B” in Vietnam used right after “Plan A”, the infamous “Winning Hearts and Minds” Plan , failed so miserably.
+1000
Maybe it was for the Hope for Homeownazz program?
After all, the world revolves around the American consu…er…. homeowner.
You know, I voted for the guy, but this is so crazy that after seeing this post, I had to check yahoo to see whether this was some sort of joke. Normally, the Nobel committee waits until AFTER you’ve actually done something rather than than handing out the prize in the HOPE that you’ll actuall accomplish something.
You’re not the only one. Lots of folks on the *ahem* liberal website are scratching their heads and saying it’s premature.
However, the Nobel committee made a point of saying that they wanted the award to go to an ongoing peace process in order to influence the process. They want to encourage peace rather than waiting for peace to happen on its own. Putting the pressure on O to live up to the award he has already won.
I guess if we want to be more traditional, we can say that Obama won for his community organizing in Chicago 25 years ago.
“Putting the pressure on O to live up to the award he has already won.”
I’ll gladly pay you tomorrow for a hamburger today.
Oh I see, it’s like giving someone a very important office or promotion in hopes they will grow into it.
*cough* “Heck of a job, Brownie.” /*cough*
You mean, being the President of the Arabian Horse Association and an organizer/contributer to G.W. Bush’s campaign doesn’t qualify one to run FEMA?
In reality, “Brownie” at FEMA ended up being the fall guy for the mind-boggling ineptitude and heedlessness of his boss at the Department of Homeland Security, Michael Chertoff, and for Bush himself. And of course, let’s not give the people of New Orleans for electing such corrupt, incompetent leaders, or for their complete lack of individual responsibilty in preparing for a very predictable hurricane and flooding (hint: you live ten feet below sea level, dumba$$es).
I’m so stunned I can’t even wrap my mind around it. Was this some sort of consolation prize for not bringing the Olympics home to Chi-town? Is it a sort of tongue-in-cheek joke by the Nobels, that Obama is the end of the US as we know it and this will bring peace to the planet? LOL, is this a move to prevent him from increasing troops in Afghanistan? Maybe it’s meant to help push through health care legislation?
Well, so much for the intelligence of the global effetes. Yep, the Nobel prizes have just lost any credibility they might have had. Reminds me of when I wuz a pup and used to throw a little game or race to my little bro’, so he’d have a win.
Yep, the Nobel prizes have just lost any credibility they might have had.
Words fail me. What happened to pride in America?
This prize is not just for Brock, it’s for America for finally having elected someone who speaks and acts like an intelligent, responsible grown-up.
Yes, they are looking past the fact that so far, after nine months, he has failed to reverse decades of political abuse, but hey, give them a break - they’re Swedish.
“Yes, they are looking past the fact that so far, after nine months, he has failed to reverse decades of political abuse,”
ED ZACHARY!
they’re Swedish.
Excuse me, Norwegian.
(So dynamite me)
It’ll be hard for Obama to give the go ahead on Iran with that Nobel around his neck. Nice move Oslo.
Not to mention the pending troop decision in Afghanistan. I think that’s the real motivation.
However, the Nobel committee made a point of saying that they wanted the award to go to an ongoing peace process in order to influence the process. They want to encourage peace rather than waiting for peace to happen on its own. Putting the pressure on O to live up to the award he has already won.
Next up - awarding Olympic metals before the event has taken place - in order to “encourage better competition”.
What twisted, twisted logic.
I’m going to vote Dem next time because the Nobel people told me to and they’re smart. (Actually I’m not going to vote Dem because I’m not allowed, O’ Canada!)
Al: Go talk to Acorn - they’ll figure out a way for you to vote.
“Next up - awarding Olympic metals before the event has taken place - in order to “encourage better competition”.”
_GREAT_ analogy, packman!
Let’s give all participants gold medals before the events, and then take them away from the losers!
It was a little stunning how little he did to win that award. I really can’t get my head around how a few feel good speeches won him the Nobel Peace Prize.
And I voted for the guy…..well, only cuz there was no write in option for Ron Paul. But I’m not an Obama hater.
Actually I would have voted for the courageous Protestors and the poor gal that was shot in Iran… but that’s just me.
Nobel on credit?
Why not you get everything else…..
I found the news sickening. The article I read says the nominations closed two weeks after the Presidential election. That means the man hadn’t even become President yet, much less done anything.
It was the committee’s expression of ecstasy that he wasn’t Le Cowboy Bush.
I can’t believe it either but maybe I witnessed some of the international attitude that could explain some of it.
When I arrived in Brazil a year and a half ago the Brazilians weren’t too stoked that I was American and they hated Bush and our wars and imperialistic stuff. A decade ago they liked America and looked up to us.
After Obama won, Brazilians loved America and the hope was so thick you could cut it with a knife, and there were lot’s of Obama shirts..really cool shirts man.
Brazilians would come up to me expressing so much hope and love that I tried to get as hopeful as them but it’s hard for a gringo to get as hopeful and loving as a happy Brazilian.
But the shirts were really cool…
I believe that it IS the International World at large that is choosing him for this award because they feel, and rightfully so, that the psyche has changed. It is no longer “you are either with me or agin me” yuck yuck.W. It is the that the world can participate in dialogue. And WE are all in this together.
So, it is unusual, but it is an affirmation that they know the US is back as the place they want to be, strive for, and achieve the same “Dream”.
January 20 to February 1. Eleven days. The
nomination committee closed on 2/1…sicko
time.
Heck, even GW hadn’t managed to screw up too bad at the two week mark.
Hey…with all the racist redneck reactionaries in America, the tall black guy deserves a Noble Peace Prize JUST for getting raising his right hand, walking into the White House and attempting to clean up the years of Bush/Cheney/Gop Disasters and Messes.
I beg to disagree. Electing a black President is an accomplishment of the American People, not the man in the black suit. That done with, show us something.
“Electing a black President is an accomplishment of the American People, not the man in the black suit. That done with, show us something.”
If the whack on the head with the 2 x4 from the past election didn’t show you something, perhaps the GOP has more Missouri Mules in it’s herd than elephants.
Not sure what you mean Mikey. I’m not racist minded nor am I Elephant minded. Slow on the uptake maybe.
Uh. Wow. Congrats to Obama on this “accomplishment”.
HEY didn’t any of you get the memo:
Its an accomplishment just to show up!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Seriously. At my kids’ school they have this whole constellation of awards for “achievement” - everyone’s a winner! Which means, genuine excellence isn’t acknowledged or encouraged. No wonder our schools are turning out so many dullards.
When I was in grade school I saw lots of cheaters get those. I was generally left out. Where are my classmates now…
Well they’re grading on a curve, and after the LAST one, apparantly all you need to do is put your name, homeroom, and date in the upper right corner to earn a gold star. I hang with a pretty liberal crowd, and EVERYBODY thinks this is stupidity squared.
Now he joins the ranks of Al Gore and his power point!
Saturday Night Live did a “Accomplishments- None” Oval Office Address w/Obama. It was a check list of accomplishments…None!
Funny and true.
http://www.hulu.com/watch/99945/saturday-night-live-obama-address
LOL! Fred Armisen is the best thing SNL has going for it. That was very funny and very true. But, for some people, (the ones who haven’t wrapped their head around Obama being a career politician), the sun still rises and sets in his sphincter. Hope for change? Yeah, right. I’ll hold my breath. P.S. IMHO, Mrs. Obama is one of the WORST dressed first ladies of all time. She’s a disgrace.
“P.S. IMHO, Mrs. Obama is one of the WORST dressed first ladies of all time. She’s a disgrace.”
Yes, she also has a huge butt ….. but they go on about how fit her arms are. I guess it is true that you have to get your disinformation campaign going early.
I think Michelle Obama dresses perfectly fine. And I think she looks perfectly fine, too, physically speaking. I was always turned off by the designer duds on first ladies (would have been ill having to watch Cindy McCain parade around in her costly ensembles had her hubby won the election). I think Mrs. O keeps it more real. But I am not a rich person and, thus, not a clothing snob.
M0 is the poster child for Fashion Victimhood
So many of her outfits look as though she reached into her oldest daughter’s closet instead of her own.
eastcoaster - her outfits ARE designer, she’s just going for the edgy trendy look and misfiring terribly.
Didn’t you hear about her $540.00 Lanvin sneakers?
I will grant you the horrible sneakers. But I still don’t think overall she’s a fashion victim.
She looked elegant and just perfect the day shortly after the election when they went to visit with the Bushes. Her dress was a classically styled red number - and she was WEARIN’ it. I just think she’s got a bad stylist on her payroll or maybe she’s trying to help out some of her creative class friends.
I started out as a fashionista, we’re no respecter of political parties.
“Yes, she also has a huge butt ….. but they go on about how fit her arms are. I guess it is true that you have to get your disinformation campaign going early.”
Hate women and blacks? Wow. I be you’re a real treasure to be around.
Yeah…Imagine that, a Noble Peace Prize awarded to another black man. The very nerve of those evil-doer Norwegians.
Hush..Hush!
Do I hear the sounds of wannabe Klansmen and the little White Power kids sobbing and weeping on their pillows, hoods and sheets this evening ?
mikey all this klan bull5hit is so yesterday.
0bama’s half caucasian, remember?
His mother is whiter than many of us will ever be.
No kiddin’ ex-Philly. Sheesh. It’s sort of like giving the gimp kid in school the prize for winning a relay-race, while anybody excellent is held back. Reminds me of a Kurt Vonnegut story.
No, really, I think it’s a joke. It’s sort of a thumb-in-the-eye from Europe, they’re probably having a huge laugh on the US right now. Must be a lot of thigh-slapping going on in Norway right now.
BWAW-HAW-HAW, geez, I just got the joke, too. It is, it really is a joke on the US. Although they’ll be getting a big charge over the partisan hornet’s nest that’s being stirred up. LMAO!
Betcha the French are pissed they didn’t think of it, first.
Funny thing was - he was nominated less than two weeks after he took office.
Is it possible for an award to be any more based purely on expectations of performance, and not actual performance?
Contrast that with the Nobel prize for physics - which was just awarded to three guys for work they did on fiber-optics and CCDs in the 1960’s - over 40 years ago.
I heard he’s up for an Emmy for a made-for-TV special he’s considering being a part of.
I think it was really an award to the American people for voting Bush out of office and the Norwegians thinking we have a parliamentary style of government.
Yeah, Bush’s numbers this past election were quite a statement, weren’t they?
(Not cracking on you - assuming your comment was tongue-in-cheek also)
packman,
I in no way DISagree, but it’s actually fairly common practice. We pay Rookie Jocks millions and millions of dollars based on their “expectations”.
Plenty of financial rewards were doled out by WS to untried and untested HF managers that lost billions and billions of $’s. And ’still’ complained when their bonuses came into question! So it’s not entirely unheard of?
If we started a list of: All the Jocks that got paid mega-bucks and failed to live UP to “expectations” ( we’d be here all damn day arguing who was the biggest disappointment! )
We pay Rookie Jocks millions and millions of dollars based on their “expectations”.
Yes but that’s payment - that’s not awards. We don’t give out NBA championship trophies to the best team on paper before the season starts - we give it out to the team that actually performs the accomplishment - after they’ve done it. That’s the difference between getting paid to do a job vs. getting a “job well done” reward after the job.
Nobel is supposed to be a “job well done” award, not a “we have high expectations for you” payment.
Why stop with the Nobel? Obama should get a Pulitzer for his autobiography. And a lifetime achievement Emmy for his press conferences.
And to encourage him to keep up the process of developing his golf game, how about a green jacket from Augusta?
Don’t worry, it’s coming.
If not pulitzer, he has my vote for Oscar for best lead actor.
Grammy for his speeches/audio books is a sure thing.
I am glad that with their actions, these people are thoroughly repudiating their own so called “esteemed” institutions.
Gotta love the irony..
Will Obama walk across the Atlantic to accept the award?
I’m not as big an Obama hater as many of the people here. I’m disappointed in him in many areas, but actually appreciate his efforts to do something about health care (though I think that if he puts forth a plan without a public option, it may just make things worse.)
I’ve been a life-long Democrat, despite the fact that I’m a small businessman, hate paying taxes, and am a die-hard capitalist.
That being said, I’m totally miffed as to why Obama won the peace prize. I feel less secure now than I did a year ago, especially with Iran flexing its nuclear muscle, and his ill-advised mid-east policies in general.
(Happy Simchas Torah!)
Reuven,
Thanks so much for your oh-so-refreshing candor. Seriously. I find what you describe as actually fitting for a great many of us. Certainly myself, only from the Rep. side.
People generally assume that just b/c I’m a Guard Member ( for instance ) that I automatically subscribe to each and every stance the NRA takes. Trust me, if you knew some of ‘my’ relatives ( you wouldn’t want them any where NEAR a gun! )
Extremists from both factions have managed to throw us moderates ( read wimps in ‘their’ minds ) under the bus on an almost hourly basis. Talk about “Either you’re with ‘us’ or AGAINST ‘us’ )!?
I always say I’m an equal opportunity hater - the far left and far right both suq.
i like how everyone is an expert on the prize now. i doubt most of the whiners even knew the award was coming up, or could point out norway, sweden, or denmark on a map.
“whiners”? LOL, Freudian slip?
Well, ‘most’ people in the running are well aware they are at the very least contenders. Funding for ‘real’ research often hinges on it. No one likes to back a loser.
Yes I can point to both countries on the map, but would I miss them if they fell off the face of the earth? Would any of us? All this shows is that firstly, -anyone- can win one and this only diminishes it’s already fading value.
Having been to Norway, Sweden, and Denmark, I for one can point them out on a map.
(Try the Lutefisk if you ever get to Norway!)
Yeah, this is a total crock. More Hopium for the masses.
I don’t have any respect for either major political party in this nation (assuming one can even consider them different parties at this point), but this Obama-worship has gotten out of hand. The guy has done little to nothing in the way of world peace: he’s had some meetings, had dictators give him a hard time, shuffled troops around (less in Iraq and probably more in Afganistan) based upon events that unfolded before he came into office, and backed out on setting Poland up with a missile shield. If that total lack of nothing is what it takes to win a Nobel Peace Prize, Bush could qualify as well?!
What don’t we just declare Obama Imperator and get it over with so we can let the limp-wristed media and waffling flakes around the world faint over his magnificance. Argh!
This award wasn’t as important as the Nobel for the hard sciences but it has now been trivialized beyond all measure. Acts no longer matter, just your intentions.
I can’t imagine this ending well for the Democrats. If you were a Republican strategist wouldn’t you be busy preparing a hoax email to send out stating that Obama’s prize is due to his “One World” vision and his desire to bring the U.S. into the “Socialist Sphere of Influence”?
Disclosure: I despise both major parties.
I think we should nominate Santa and the Easter Bunny for the 2010 Nobel Peace Prize. You know, ’cause they bring hope too.
And candy.
And presents.
I’d be opposed to that. They never bring *me* anything! (Is it because I’m Jewish?)
Don’t Santa and the Easter Bunny bring Dreidels to the Jewish kids?
Is it because I’m Jewish?
Stop rationalizing,…. you have probably just been bad!!!
How about the tooth fairy, then.
Oh, I don’t know. As a kid I was terrorized by those fuzzy suits.
And now that I’m supposedly an adult, I always wonder about the motivations of other adults dressing up in bunny outfits…
Google “Furries.” It was also covered on a CSI episode.
LOL. Ya, that’s what I was hinting at, VA. Not that I know anything about that sort of behavior… B-)
Nah. Some things are stupid enough on their own.
This isn’t Obama’s fault either.
It is just stupid for the NPP to invalidate itself.
Hope is not a strategy.
It will be his fault if he accepts. I am really really hoping (as largely an Obama supporter) that he declines.
Along with the noble peace prize he’ll also receive approx. $1.4 million. I doubt he’ll turn that down.
Well, as everyone knows, he’s already accepted.
Barack Obama’s capacity for self-adoration is probably off the scale of any known measuring device yet invented upon Earth.
“I love me, I love me,
I’m wild about myself.
I love me, I love me,
My picture’s on my shelf.”
Bad Chile,
I don’t think the Rep’s ‘need’ to do a thing! But I ‘do’ believe after careful consideration that BO -will- graciously decline. He would get a lot more mileage out of this by awarding it to women’s rights activists in Afghanistan or the protestors in Iran etc.
I for one think he will.
I for one think he will.
Dinor, I think so too.
“…just your intentions.”
Just the potential to sway your intentions…
I’d like my prize for trying to invent a machine that makes energy from sea water.
And I deserve a prize for turning wine into water. OK, so I filter it through my kidneys first, but it’s still quite an achievement.
Sammy,
LOL! And that begins in 3 hours and 12 minutes!
( The Low-Beer Warning Indicator is now -fully- illuminated! )
This award is going to be the running joke that haunts Obama for the rest of his tenure. It is his “Mission Accomplished” moment.
The acceptance speach should be a hoot.
If he had any class, he’d turn it down. THEN I might even start to think there was something in that suit.
Bush freed two nations from oppressive govts. One from a dictator. The other from a regime that oppressed women, cut off arms and legs and forced religion on a populace and keep them in the dark ages.
The messiah has only been in office ten minutes, made a bunch of promises, done nothing but put our grandchildren in debt for decades to come and the liberal world is already giving him awards…
This is one of the dumbest things I have ever seen in my life…
Er, some might argue that the cost of freeing those oppressive govts from dictators is what will put our grandchildren in debt for decades. Worth it? We probably could have picked better targets if that were truly the goal.
Er, “freeing those nations from oppressive govts”…is what I meant to say…
Bush freed two nations from oppressive govts.
I respectfully disagree Stpn. Bush invaded these countries pure and simple. Bailouts and Wars - Bush’s legacy.
No wonder McCain got creamed - that’s what he was following too.
“Bailouts and Wars - Bush’s legacy.”
They told me if I voted for McCain we’d have billions more in bailouts for the “too big to fails” and that American soldiers would still be dying overseas.
Damn if they weren’t right. I voted for McCain and all that stuff happened just like they said.
Didn’t the Iraqis all flee their country to stay safe? If they wanted to be free, they could have waged war against their dictator, no?
In fairness to Obama, he seems to have been a hapless non-participant in this. I can’t blame him for the breathless Obama-worship of a panel of chinless wonders in Sweden. Whereas Bush’s “Mission Accomplished” moment - stepping out from the back seat of a fighter-bomber like he was the original Top Gun - was right out of central casting for “Buffoon-in-Chief.”
For the last time, it’s NORWAY!
The Swedes already have enough bum raps.
Actually it was the crew of the carrier that put up that “Mission Accomplished” banner. And for them it was true. They were returning to home port after the war.
Bush’s advance team screwed up by not making them take it down.
Yeah, but I’ve never heard of a carrier crew putting up a “Mission Accomplished” banner at the end of a cruise before. Besides, what would they know about it.
Squids…….
crew of the carrier that put up “Mission Accomplished” banner.
Bushes advance team GAVE them the banner.
geeze.
And major bomb dropping and missiles strikes from Aircraft carriers were over. That portion of the invasion was complete… and Mission was Accomplished. Sadam’s Armies were defeated.
Nothing was implied, other than media rhetoric and the interpretations of the antagonist left would, that the sign meant everything was done in Iraq.
His visit on that aircraft carrier was a tribute to the fine men of our Navy… And major combat efforts were complete… and they did a fine job.
Since that time, we have been dealing with the ground combats, terrorist activities, and the efforts of nationbuilding… which GW said REPEATEDLY throughout his first term.. will take 10 years or more.
Another excuse.
He should have removed his name from the nominations to begin with.
Ronpaul, can you show us where the nominees know ahead of time they are being considered.
Amid the wreckage of the financial crisis, building blocks for the next bubble are with us. (AP)
A year after the collapse of home values triggered the financial crisis and Great Recession, another rapid and irrational rise in the price of assets — whether stocks, home values, oil or something else — would seem unlikely. After all, major bubbles through history have been spaced decades, if not centuries, apart.
Today, though, amid the wreckage of the last bubble, the ingredients for the next are still with us. The price of gold spiking to its highest level ever — $1,060 an ounce on Thursday — is one warning sign, as is the 67 percent surge since March in the Nasdaq Stock Market index.
One reason is that there’s a sharp rise in the amount of capital sloshing around the world in search of the best returns. Investors are still fixated on short-term gains over long-term performance. And information now travels instantly, fueling a herd mentality and feeding the optimism wired into our brains.
Bubbles feel good when they’re inflating, but even that upside isn’t a replacement for slow-and-steady growth — the type of economy the U.S. mostly had for decades. The problem comes when the music stops and the wreckage spreads far beyond the assets that were inflated.
After the housing bubble popped, we’re lucky to still have a functioning financial system. And because millions of working Americans now depend on 401(k) plans instead of pensions for their retirement savings, they’re more vulnerable when the stock market plunges as it did last fall.
“It’s not a matter of could it happen again; it’s a matter of when,” says Kenneth Rogoff, an economics professor at Harvard University and co-author of a new book on bubbles called “This Time Is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly.”
http://press.princeton.edu/titles/8973.html
This Time is Different:
Eight Centuries of Financial Folly
Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff Video
These two believe in a jobless recovery, in that the job market will lag but will catch up to the healing. I’m an Austrian School Of Econ gal. Without good jobs, how do you have a recovery? Is a fake economy healing? Wash, Rinse, Repeat.
Actually you can have a jobless recovery, if you define “recovery” as meeting your own set of criteria - which includes the use of large amounts of life support, and morphine.
life support = government spending
morphine = MSM ignorance of the real economy
I’m an Austrian School Of Econ gal.
Are you single?!?
AW.
IRT>I’m an Austrian School Of Econ gal.
I think about 75% of the guys on the board just fell in love.
I’m chiming in as well! You won my heart, awaiting wipeout!
awaiting wipeout, Now is the time to find out about all your new gentlemen admirers: ok, who cooks what, who picks up their own socks, who leaves the toilet lid down, who refrains from talking to someone reading, who never watches sports on tv in their underwear, who gives a great foot massage, etc.
The world is your oyster, you Austrian School of Econ gal!
75% of guys?? Hey, I’ll go bi-curious for a methodical individualist.
Dang! You beat me to it, witty.
Shoot, you two probably just shot ahead of all the guys on the criteria list I posted above.
Just had my 25th Wedding Anniversary -this- week!
( So I’ll have to settle for “secret crush” )
That made me realize that we totally forgot about our 23rd anniversary on September 25.
Ron Paul here.
She’s mine.
There’s just too many people that can’t survive without bubbles to justify their bonuses. I’m beginning to think this won’t end badly because it just won’t end. Humph.
I guess it’s safe to say there are no bubbles in T-bills. No bubbles in the amount of debt-free households either!
I brought my debt down from well over $15,000 to $7,200 this year. That and T-bills are my numero uno priority investment this year.
No Xmas for this pagan, this year. Just thoughtful cards. I’m telling everyone to not buy me anything but give me the gift of seeing them in better financial shape.
Just thoughtful cards. I’m telling everyone to not buy me anything but give me the gift of seeing them in better financial shape.
That’s a nice thoughtful practical idea, BiLA.
I’ve started giving silver eagles to the kids in the family for Xmas. Like they need any more ’stuff’. One day the coins might be useful to them.
“Investors are still fixated on short-term gains over long-term performance.”
In a world based on deception what can you hope for?
““One reason is that there’s a sharp rise in the amount of capital sloshing around the world in search of the best returns.”
Capital? All I see is “paper” chasing after more “paper” and nothing concrete. Nothing physical.
Castles in the sky.
I posted this late last night, probably got mostly missed, and I thought that others would find it interesting..
“One said that given my credit and income I could get a loan for “over $2 Million” with nothing down. My income was approximately $300K per annum at that time.”
Ahh, that’s nothing. When I was renting my present house; I asked the RE agent to do some looking at MTG numbers for me. The number she came back with was almost exactly 10X my (combined household) income. She said that as long as I didn’t go over 8X “it should be totally manageable). I sat, mouth agape, looking at her as if she had 3 heads. I then snatched the pen and signed the rental paperwork as fast as I could.
Also, another “ah-HA” moment came when I handed over the check for the rental. It was first, last and security; not a ton of money, but apparently, bigger than normal for the RE agent. “You know, if you were to buy this house, you won’t need to put anything at all down, you can keep this check… We might even be able to get some money out to help you remodel/upgrade!”. I almost vomited in my mouth, and threw the check at her, and got the he** out of that “crazy house”.
Fast forward 3 years. Zillow has the price of the home I rent down 225K (approaching 50% down). It would probably sell for about that today, but, once the “cash for crapshacks” goes away, I expect the market to really start to crumble down here.
This is all, BTW, in Palm Beach, FL.
Just out of curiosity, does that represent high/middle/or low end in that market? ‘Cause ’round here (MD suburbs of DC) the Low end is probably fairly close to bottom, but the mid/upper end hasn’t fallen nearly as far yet. But I have the sense that Florida is about a year ahead of the rest of us.
That’s around the middle end of the market. It’s a bit higher than the median, but certainly not high end. At the peak, this home sold for 510K, the median price peaked at 410K, so that should give you a good indication as to where this property is on the pricing scale.
FL is ahead of the curve, but it’s still got some room to fall, there are still crazy asking prices all over, and some homes getting sold at grossly inflated prices. I think it’s going to be another year before we start to come close to the bottom (at least in the price range that I’m looking at).
And IMHO likely to fall further than many areas because of the large amount of overbuilding. Miss Reduced Demand, I’d like to introduce you to Mr. Increased Supply. I’m sure you’ll have alot to talk about.
Jim, what is “low end?” I remember some true 1950’s teeny shacks inside the beltway in NoVa going for upwards of $400K. Some smaller old Craftsman shacks in Silver Spring about $350K. Have those dropped so much?
Exactly. The condo I bought in a nice neighborhood inside the beltway for $130k in 1999 (low end) would still sell for $300k+ today.
Well I bought in College Park in 1999 for $120k and I’d definately consider it “low end.” Not getto, or uninhabitable by any means, but in 1999 $120k was certainly in the lowest third of prices in the area for a SFH.
Wait a minute. Comparing College Park (most of P.G. County, actually) to places like Arlington, Vienna, Rockville, etc. is like comparing hamburger to prime rib. And I’m not even including Potomac, McLean or Great Falls.
did you just call Rockville prime rib?
The 8k credit is clearing out a lot of underbrush but doing nothing for prices here on the westside of LA except for the crappy condos that I have no interest in.
My future purchase plans are shifting towards a residential income property. These prices are getting hammered much harder than SFR. Banks don’t want to loan unless you plan to owner occupy.
Tracking Santa Monica, South Bay and SilverLake
Young gal at work here in the South Bay got an $8k credit and purchased a condo costing $300,000. It’s not a bad area. It’s a mile from work. She’s a smart gal but I think she should have waited a couple of years for the $15k credit. She should have bought a bunch of gold bullion coins.
If you check ForeclosureRadar dot com, you’ll probably notice that there’s an increase in MFRs. Especially in the Silverlake area.
Rents not covering the mortgage and property price declines are motivating owners of MFRs to walk. Especially those who bought 2004 - 2008.
‘She said that as long as I didn’t go over 8X “it should be totally manageable).’
Apparently your UHS ‘knew’ that lots more real estate price inflation was ‘in the bag.’
I’m thinking a lot of FB’s bought because they couldn’t afford first and last months’ rent + deposit. Man, that’s a lot of money!
It would have been much less expensive to buy then rent; that’s for sure. I’m not sure if people actually bought because they couldn’t afford rent, but it wouldn’t surprise me! Rent, where you have to come up with 10K to start a lease, or buy, where they will give you 30K for “sprucing the place up” for signing on the dotted line? Hmm…
People I know who bought during the bubble would have had to ask the parents for the upfront rent money. With with no money down, they could buy, and felt so grown up! lol
MIAMI (Reuters) - Every 13 seconds in America, there is another foreclosure filing.
That’s the rhythm of a crisis that threatens to choke off hopes for a recovery in the U.S. housing market as it destroys hundreds of billions of dollars in property values a year.
There are more than 6,600 home foreclosure filings per day, according to the Center for Responsible Lending, a nonpartisan watchdog group based in Durham, North Carolina. With nearly two million already this year, the flood of foreclosures shows no sign of abating any time soon.
If anything, the country’s worst housing downturn since record-keeping began in the late 19th century may only get worse since foreclosures, which started with subprime borrowers, have now moved on to the much bigger prime loan market on the back of mounting unemployment.
In congressional testimony last month Michael Barr, the Treasury Department’s assistant secretary for financial institutions, said more than 6 million families could face foreclosure over the next three years.
“The recent crisis in the housing sector has devastated families and communities across the country and is at the center of our financial crisis and economic downturn,” Barr said.
But arguably, the Fed is more worried about the solvency of those who lent the money than those who borrowed it.
This seems like an appropriate time to reminisce about the good old days when sub-prime was contained.
Really scary article about the FHA in the NYTimes Business section today. Essentially it points out the fact that the FHA is acting like the worst subprime lenders of 2003-2006, and will probably get the same results with OUR money. Does this nightmare ever end???
FHA should immediately start to require at least 10% down, and be restricted to no more than 200K for ANY location, or any home. I’m not sure how we got to 729K as a “reasonable” number for the government to subsidize (FNM/FRE), but, no matter how we reached that level of stupidity, we need to reverse course immediately. 729K homes are affordable to people making 250K+. That’s 1/4 of a MILLION dollars a year, or something like 5-10X the median income (in most areas). How on EARTH does that group need a subsidy to help them buy a home?
400K is too high (125K HH income required, which is 2-3X median and puts that household in the top 10% of all households in the country). 729K is laughable.
FHA/FRE/FNM are doing everything that they can to keep homes unaffordable. Get rid of them all, let the market determine rates!
And yes, I’m sure you’re going to see the “low income” lenders blow up; 3% down (and financing 200-400K homes through low income lenders) is a terrible idea. It will end in nothing but disaster.
So far, there is no sign that any of the recent housing market nightmares have ended.
(Second Try, blog seems to have eaten the first one)
FHA should immediately start to require at least 10% down, and be restricted to no more than 200K for ANY location, or any home. I’m not sure how we got to 729K as a “reasonable” number for the government to subsidize (FNM/FRE), but, no matter how we reached that level of stupidity, we need to reverse course immediately. 729K homes are affordable to people making 250K+. That’s 1/4 of a MILLION dollars a year, or something like 5-10X the median income (in most areas). How on EARTH does that group need a subsidy to help them buy a home?
400K is too high (125K HH income required, which is 2-3X median and puts that household in the top 10% of all households in the country). 729K is laughable.
FHA/FRE/FNM are doing everything that they can to keep homes unaffordable. Get rid of them all, let the market determine rates!
And yes, I’m sure you’re going to see the “low income” lenders blow up; 3% down (and financing 200-400K homes through low income lenders) is a terrible idea. It will end in nothing but disaster.
What exactly are Fannie and Freddie buying? Are they buying actual mortgages? So, if an FB defaults the house goes to the government? That may not be quite a bad thing. After all, the government has the “assets” to cover if the FB defaults, by printing press if need be.
What I *don’t* want is F&F buying all those damn derivatives. An FB buys a house on 10:1 price to income, which is lent by an originator at 20:1 leverage to reserves, which is bought by megabank for 30:1 leverage to reserves, which is insured by AIG at another 20:1 leverage to reserves. Theoretically, somebody created $120,000 for every $1 some Joe worked at his job. No wonder we’re flat broke.
Suspect the FB will get a do over
Do over to be provided via another yet to be announced foreclosure prevention program.
oxide
I just finished a Structured Finance class, and I was flabbergasted at the whole process.
Really scary article about the FHA in the NYTimes Business section today. Essentially it points out the fact that the FHA is acting like the worst subprime lenders of 2003-2006, and will probably get the same results with OUR money. Does this nightmare ever end???
We’ve discussed this for a few months now on the HBB already. I wholeheartedly agree.
Though the scale will end up being somewhat smaller; as you mention though the difference is that now they’re playing directly with taxpayer money. Actually I prefer that - I’d rather face the devil you do see instead of the devil you don’t. This will end up being a huge black eye for federal programs of this sort; and in the end hopefully some good will come out of it.
As long as we survive it.
You guys ,it’s not a program ,it’s a bag-holder transfer of risk . You know ,good bank/bad bank .
Soooo, September store sales were up 0.1% y-o-y which beat analysts estimates. This increase was found to be based upon deep, deep store discounts and sale items. Consumers continue to pay down debt. Weekly hours worked continue to decline. Unemployment continues to rise and these levels continue to horrify and alarm. There are alarming articles that the FHA will need a bailout because of declining reserves. Household wealth continues to decline.
Oh, and Australia increased their interest rate earlier in the week.
The recession is over.
Equity markets are continuing to rally.
… And the whole world continues in their ignorance of what is exactly happening right now.
Remember that a few short months ago we, this blog, were saying that people would start to walk away from their debt? Yet, it was just a few months ago this was unthinkable for anyone to do. Now, it is not considered anything unusual and even laudatory.
Now it looks like the same is going to happen in Commercial Realestate.
Did we really think that the Dollar would be going the way of the Pound Sterling at the beginning of this? China, Oil Countries, etc. are looking to get out of pricing in Dollars.
Optimism reigns because one or another of some silly report “beat Analysts estimates”. Worse yet, these Analysts have been so wrong. I read in the headlines that “better than Analysts estimates” causes jumps in rallys of one sort or another. I can’t trust Wall Street because of last year. Cash is on the sidelines for a reason.
I’ll close with this question: Do people really think that the U.S. Gov’t’s actions are keeping anyone in a home that couldn’t make it otherwise? Much less to the tune of 500,000 homeowners? I’m calling BS.
Roidy
P.S. I.T.B. I.G.H. T.C.F.I.
So what if the Arabs dump their dollars. We were supposed to see that happen in the 70s anyways and it was a nonstarter. Our own Fed has thrown more dollars into the air than that Arabs ever could and what was the result? Let them eat Euros, HAHA!
The mega trend is the collapse of the biggest expansion of credit in history at all levels and all around the world. I claimed almost four years ago that the Fed was powerless to stop this correction. They have done more than I thought they could to postpone it, but I can’t see that they have corrected anything in the real world, only in fantasy land.
Someday this dream is gonna end.
And it will hurt like hell.
You need to change your handle.
The flip side of a further doubling of gold prices will be a halving of dollar purchasing power. Sadly, it is too late to get out of the dollar now, as its value relative to gold is already down by 2/3 or so over the past decade. Aside from jawboning, the Fed-Treasury is showing little resolve to defend the dollar from further erosion.
Oct. 8, 2009, 8:20 p.m. EDT
Gold will hit $2,000 an ounce within decade, says Jim Rogers
By Moming Zhou, MarketWatch
NEW YORK (MarketWatch) — Gold prices, which just reached a new record high above $1,060 an ounce Thursday, will top $2,000 in a decade, according to Jim Rogers, a famed investor known for his bullish calls on commodities.
Rogers, speaking Thursday at the sidelines in a conference held by ETF Securities in New York, said gold prices will keep rising as a protection against a weaker U.S. dollar.
The dollar “is a terribly flawed” currency, he said. “Foreign debts are increasing rapidly every year, and I don’t think Washington seems to care.”
Rogers, chairman of Rogers Holdings, said prices of other commodities, such as oil, copper, and sugar, will continue to rise in the long term as the world will face more demand but shrinking supplies.
“There was very, very few new production capacity brought on line in the past 30 years for commodities,” he said. “We have shortages developing throughout the world.”
Demand, meanwhile, is on the rise, especially from Asia, he said.
“Thirty years ago, the last time we had a bull market in commodities, Asia was not in the game,” said Rogers, who moved from New York to Singapore in late 2007. “And now they are all trying to live like we do.”
“If you are going to diversify [your portfolio,] it’s got to be commodities, because they will go in a different direction from your other assets,” he said.
…
P.S. The upside of dollar weakness: Real estate and stock prices can start going up again, even as the real value of the underlying assets continues to drop.
While the precious might have some strength you have to really think about this PB.
If you are looking at terms of M0 and M3, you can see substantial signs of inflation. If you look even broader in terms of overall credit, the enviroment is still deflationary. Also seeing some substantial decelration in M2 over the past year. While it is true that the government has printed a lot of treasuries to create money, the yield is fantastically low. Hence, you can have a lot of velocity in the future and pay down that debt. Also if the government raises taxes, a lot of that new debt disapears in a closed loop. Again a deflationary effect that will destroy a lot of the inflation.
Some infotainment floating around from Mish Shedlock.
Basically noted that China increased their money supply by 25% last year. If you look at many of their businesses, they return less than that. Hence they are opperating at a loss with respect to the dollar. If we managed to have our treasuries valued in Yaun we’d have achieved a 25% reduction in the debt last year! China is continuing to push on the export model so is continuing to buy treasuries and print money to keep exports flowing. This is also having an upward push on the price of commodities including gold. Gold is another commodity in that respect. Not sure how long this plays out but it might signal a bubble in gold as well.
It is highly likely that as we tap out as consumers over here that China will also go through a substantial deflationary period. They also have plenty of structural problems there as well. They are totally outpacing us on currency debasement. Also on enviromental destruction, poor quality goods and other stupidity.
Mr Rodgers will probably be safely and happily dead before this all comes unglued.
“While it is true that the government has printed a lot of treasuries to create money, the yield is fantastically low.”
Didn’t you hear? It isn’t Mr Market that keeps the lid on T-bond yields. The Fed prints money and uses it to fund its T-bond purchase (aka yield-suppression) program.
“Also if the government raises taxes, a lot of that new debt disapears in a closed loop.”
Why would the govt honestly raise taxes and cause an R-can backlash when the Fed’s printing press can be used to create a stealth tax on those who are long dollar obligations?
It isn’t like we haven’t raised taxes before and will not again in the future.
There may not be a republican backlash when the ecomonmy is in the dumps. Too many people on the govt dime.
Not sure I understand quantative easing.
The Fed is printing money and buying treasuries. This does just about jack and sh&t. And jack left town. This money never goes into circulation and has zero effect on velocity. Or the little it has comes from the interest the fed pays out to depositiors. Those depositors are all in the red so again, no money goes out. Again at a low rate.
Also China is still buying treasuries. Bill Gross and PIMCO are buying treasuries.
I’d agree there are inflation expectations. Possibly China might cause gold ot go to 2000$.
However, for me, the long term picture is quite fuzzy.
“The Fed is printing money and buying treasuries. This does just about jack and sh&t.”
Normal treasury sale:
Customer X gives existing money to the government to spend, for a string of cash flow in the future. Customer X can’t use the original money because the government has it. Net change is 0.
Sale to Fed:
Fed gives new money to the government for the treasury, which the government can use. Customer X still has their money to spend too. If the Gov’t & Fed keep rolling over the treasury without letting it expire, the new money stays in the system. It only dissappears when the Fed doesn’t renew the treasury (collects the pricipal).
Hope this helps.
Why would the govt honestly raise taxes and cause an R-can backlash when the Fed’s printing press can be used to create a stealth tax on those who are long dollar obligations?
States are raising taxes (1/3 raised them this year according to SF examiner) cutting services and raising fees. This all has the same effect.
Companies are also shifting costs to employees
It’s really a game of chicken between China others vs the FED.
Maybe it only looks like there are more dollars floating around because the other side of the balance sheet is hidden.
Gramps used to tell me that gold is a store of wealth. If the price of gold were to head for the moon, I’d take it that a lot of folks were generating tons of wealth, or betting that others would in the near term. Nobody here points to any area where tons of real wealth are being generated, so it must be the bets.
The other possibility is that the Asians borrow with one hand and buy gold with the other. That game can end quickly when the loans come due. In the US, maybe you can walk from the loans and hide the gold. In China, I hear, there is real debtor’s prison.
Maybe it only looks like there are more dollars floating around because the other side of the balance sheet is hidden.
BINGO we have a winner.
Can anyone comment on whether HAMP monies are being used to modify mortgages for people who bought ten investment properties?
Explaining the mortgage modification mess — Part 4
By Chris Dix
In the first three parts of this series, I described the recent legal precedence for current mortgage modifications. I defined the difference between a mortgage modification and a refinance. The practical, real world implications of the difficulties in negotiating a mortgage modification and three no-nonsense implications in getting a modification were spelled out. I justified the fees in getting an attorney-negotiated mortgage modification, and how to justify the choice between paying your next mortgage payment and paying an attorney.
…
A little-known fact is that investment property mortgages can be modified providing that the primary, residential mortgage is in good standing. The implication here is that a multiple property owner should have his primary mortgage and total income evaluated; and then proceed through their investment portfolio to evaluate those mortgages also.
Another little-known fact is that second mortgages can be modified as well. They don’t fit in the HAMP program, but if you’re going to modify the first lien, you might as well negotiate the second as well. Again, the ultimate goal is 31 percent of net income to a negotiated mortgage modification to make the monthly payments affordable.
…
So, I’m trying to form an intellegent opinion on the whole healthcare debate and looked up some stuff on this here internet thing.
What I got from this: wiki had a number of people in the US without health insurance at 47M.
From that number
9M were illegals
38% or 14M had incomes over 50K, hence this is a choice for them
After that a large percentage are covered by medicare, which is a lot of people considering it’s for people that have worked more than 10 years. My estimate is about 25% of the remainder of the population.
Your down to about 18M people which is under 5% of the population.
I’m guessing a substantial amount of those are young people that are uninsured by choice/students/hikers exc.
So this whole drama is about a tiny slice of the population. It probably doesn’t require a major bunch of legislation or even 1/10 the attention it is getting.
This is a bunch of guys with some kind of agenda, trying to push some legislation out there and it’s not a good thing.
Things that sound like bigger real issues to me:
Healthcare reform/medicare funding reform
Improving efficiency in hospital care/treatment and or waste/fraud abuse
People living in the storm sewers in Vegas. That will make drainage problems. that was humor people.
Oh that housing bubble thing.
The Fed.
Iran/Iraq/Afganistan
the debt/trade deficit/jobs
Oil consumption
Infastructure problems
Social Security
We are always going to have some percentage of the population lving at the fringe. Be they hermits living in the woods, hippies living less materialistic lifestyles or people into the drug culture. I’m not willing to waste energy and effort trying to fix these guys. They don’t want to be fixed and are making their own choices.
Plenty of real problems that need effort and will be more fruitful.
Currently there are a lot of problems in the ole USA. Most of them are related the lack of jobs.
James
I great interview on the health care on PBS Bill Moyers Journal online. Wendell Potter, a former Executive with Cigna is interviewed. He nailed both parties on lobbyist money. Most of the series on health care was objective.
http://www.pbs.org/moyers/journal/07102009/watch2.html
A Documentary on PBS Frontline online about universal care in different countries:
http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/pages/frontline/sickaroundtheworld/
To me james it’s about the wealth stripping performed by insurance. They use 20-24 cents of each health care dollar for management advertising ect. That in my view is Wasted money. Medicare performs the same function for under 5-10% I believe.
A 2005 CBO report suggests that administration costs are one of the most rapidly rising costs in terms of medical expenditures. They are rising 7% a yea. This despite computerization, consolidation, and outsourcing of labor which should have dramatically lowered costs. It suggests that management and owners are taking a bigger and bigger piece of the pie and providing nothing more in return.
In 1985 about 75cents of every dollar went to doctors, nurses, hospitals ect. Now it’s like 60 cents.
People against a public option say that the gov plan would have advantages due to public money, the reality is that medicare does not drop people when they are sick while private insurance dumps sick people all the time usually onto medicaid or medicare. Thus it is the private plans that have the advantage.
Yeah. I know the insurance companies pocket a lot of green. However, I don’t really believe the CBO study. I didn’t find it on their website.
It is hard to believe the government guys will be efficient in spending money. They never have before. Half the medicare fraud comes from fact that govt people just don’t care until they get into trouble.
You can always model something like centralized govt and show how efficient it could be. The reality is always different. The central planning guys always miss targets in a bad way and then paper over the problem with lots of money.
Personally don’t believe your going to get an objective study from the CBO, populated with a bunch of liberals, despite claims that it is a non-partisan group. I’d prefer to get studies from universities but even then its difficult.
Again, this is largely a non-problem we are attempting to solve here.
Unless the truth is this is some bigger agenda hidden in the smaller one. Have no idea what that goal would be though.
In 2005 GOP was in control of congress so I doubt that the CBO was populated by liberals. You can’t just bash the source.
http://www.senate.gov/pagelayout/history/one_item_and_teasers/partydiv.htm
The study also noted that we spend
6100 per year per person vs 3-4k for canada, france, GB, Germany, Australia, Japan ect.
Yet we have worse outcomes overall
Health care is becoming a problem because the costs are cracking the backs of Companies and employees that are paying the tab ,while increasingly Private Insurance Companies are retaining greater profits, cancelling people who have pre-existing ,more BK’s because of medical costs ,refusing to insure certain groups along with bad faith rationing ,,and on and on .
What is the big deal about who pools the funds for health care .
The only thing that the private insurance companies want is
maybe Co-ops so they can pass their high risk patients to them .
They started Medicare to begin with because the private sector refused to insure older people at reasonable prices . What good are the private insurance companies ,they only want all the good without any of the bad ,while they hassle sick people and try to deny them or play games and control doctors .
Health care costs are breaking the back of the middle class and if it continues the only ones that will have health care are the
rich and the poor ,the immigrants, and Medicare people .You got a lot of lobbying going on right now by all the self-interested
groups .
“Medicare performs the same function for under 5-10% I believe.”
Medicare doesn’t administer a d*** thing; they just write checks to anyone who submits a claim.
And what function does insurance play CrackerJim???? Oh that’s right they write checks to people who submit claims.
Medicare does not submit a check to anyone, and if you commit fraud they tend to throw you in jail.
I love uneducated anger
“38% or 14M had incomes over 50K, hence this is a choice for them”
Some percentage of these folks might have pre-existing conditions, and thus ineligible for coverage (or coverage they could afford). I don’t know if this would materially affect your analysis.
38% or 14M had incomes over 50K, hence this is a choice for them
Or it could be they or someone in the family got sick and exhausted their insurance benefits and were dropped.
It could be that they lost their job and were dropped. Maybe they lost their job because they were sick.
It could be that they got suckered into the housing game and lost all their money.
It could be they lost a case in court
James did you know that if you get too sick to work after 18mo they can drop you from your insurance plan even if you make payments?? Then you go bankrupt and go on medicaid.
Measton,
I said, probably not as clearly as needed, that regulations on insurance needs to be fixed.
My numbers are an estimate and I suspect they are very close to correct.
I am not sure a public option would work any better or wouldn’t increase costs.
Comparisons on cost per country don’t impress me at all. The quality of care “overall” is very different. I notice you through in the “overall” because you know from previous posts that when you sort out a lot of the violence related data, we do just fine relative to other countries.
I believe organizations like the CBO are filled with liberals. It tends to be that exact group of people involved in that field and on that kind of study. Though it isn’t officially called a liberal group, I’m suspicious of anything they put out.
Possibly the government would spend less on the insurance part. However, they might easily not fight for pricing on various kinds of care or do a good job locating fraud in the system. The problem is the government has zero urge to control costs. It is OPM.
My comment was the public payer option is likely to be a big pain in the backside. Likely to be inefficient as everything else while wrecking productivity and making us even less competative as a nation.
I suppose the goal of many of the libs around here is to be like France. That with the long term high unemployment, international irrelavance, poor attitude and poor personal hygiene.
You guys just kill me sometimes. We have medicare for the people that were working and lost their jobs. I believe that is exactally what that is for. Now, as for the others in that category. I said the reform part, I think needs to go forward. Part of the protecting the public from large scale fraud.
Otherwise you are just motivating people to sit on there asses while watching Oprah and peoples court.
You are throwing a bunch of things into the general mathmatics of it all that show it is a minor problem. Minor. None of them valid about a public payer option. I don’t think we are looking at 1/20 people having cancer and going through many years of chemo.
About the being sick for more than 18 months. Can understand from a business perspective completely. It stinks but the insurance needs to have some cut off point or a few people can drag down the whole system. Otherwise the cost growth would be too much. And yep, it’s a death pannel like remark. Just like any kind of life insurance, you only can get so much from it.
Again. It. sucks. However, other than some communist system, what could you possibly do?
Jobs. Big issue. Tax structure. Big issue. The Fed/debt. Big issue.
Healthcare. Minor issue.
James
The wealth stripping by insurance companies hurts the ability of the US to compete given that employers pay for a big chunck of those health care costs. This is not just an issue for those that believe that everyone should be covered for health care.
James said
“My numbers are an estimate and I suspect they are very close to correct.”
James these numbers are then meaningless unless you can back them up. estimates based on ??????
James said
“Comparisons on cost per country don’t impress me at all. The quality of care “overall” is very different”
You didn’t read the rest of what I posted. Not only is cost less but health outcomes are equal or better according to WHO and other international groups. Of course I know you hate all of these groups and will immediately discount their data.
James said
“I believe organizations like the CBO are filled with liberals. It tends to be that exact group of people involved in that field and on that kind of study” Again james you seem to value your opinion over evidence. Where is the evidence?? I suspect that when ever anyone presents data that conflicts with your pre conceived notions that you immediately lable them a liberal. Again Congresss was controlled by republicans in 2005 james.
James
“Possibly the government would spend less on the insurance part. However, they might easily not fight for pricing on various kinds of care or do a good job locating fraud in the system. The problem is the government has zero urge to control costs. It is OPM.”
You would be much more effective in making your case if you relied less on your opinion and more on gathering evidence.
James
“I suppose the goal of many of the libs around here is to be like France.” And there it is, never mind that there are better more efficient systems of administering health care that would improve lives and improve our countries ability to compete we can’t do it if the French did it. Back to Freedom Fries dam it.
James
“About the being sick for more than 18 months. Can understand from a business perspective completely. It stinks but the insurance needs to have some cut off point or a few people can drag down the whole system. ”
It’s called insurance, people buy it to make sure they don’t have a financial disaster when they get sick. Now you would think that if they kept making their payments they should continue to get the insurance they paid for. Instead the very profitable insurance companies roll them onto the tax payer dime. ie you are now paying for their health care James.
James
“Again. It. sucks. However, other than some communist system, what could you possibly do?”
Medicare/VA system that pays only for things that meet a certain cost benefit analysis and then if you want more you pay cash or get private insurance. A much more rational system. A much more efficient system.
Missed on, measton.
We have medicare for the people that were working and lost their jobs. I believe that is exactally what that is for.
on = one
did you know that if you get too sick to work after 18mo they can drop you from your insurance plan even if you make payments??
You’re talking about the expiration of COBRA? You should be able to get a new individual policy as long as the old one covers the pre-existing condition. Unless the gov’t completely screws up the health insurance industry the way they did with mortgage finance.
I believe that Big Business is going to increasingly drop health insurance from their benefit packages. I got a notice today of
a reduced coverage policy ,that isn’t worth a shit . So,they will be coming up with new policies that give such low coverage your doomed .
Look, the insurance Companies did this same BS with earthquake coverage . After they had to pay off on the Northridge Earthquake
claims (when the coverage was good ),they redesigned their policies to not really cover the items in a effective way . It’s a racket . Try looking at the fine print some time in any insurance that you take out and you will find exclusions up the yang yang ,and those exclusions are usually the areas that they find costly
if they have to pay off .
Can anybody relate to getting constant updates from your property insurance company of them either adding a exclusion or dropping a option of Doctor you can go to and things like that .
Private Insurance Companies have proved bad faith in every
way,and their approval times are not honoring “time is of the essence . “
I kinda sorta get this guy’s beef. As long as the government is going to inject $100,000 or so per loan modification for any household they deem to be HAMP-worthy, why tie the qualification to having a current income? Aren’t the unemployed more in need of loan modification than anyone else?
Posted on Fri, Sep. 25, 2009
Mortgage-modification program questioned, protested
By Alan J. Heavens
Inquirer Real Estate Writer
The government cannot do anything to make Rafael Aponte’s home affordable.
Aponte has been unemployed for three years since being laid off after 17 years at National Display Co. That is how long he has owned his Northern Liberties rowhouse, now in foreclosure.
Protesting near the National Constitution Center, where a congressional panel yesterday tried to gauge the progress of homeowner-rescue programs, Aponte said his lender had agreed to modify his mortgage, then had withdrawn the offer.
“They said that without a job, how could I pay even that?” Aponte said. “They’re right, but it isn’t fair.”
That opinion was shared by many speakers inside the center. While applauding the Obama administration for getting the Home Affordable Modification Program up and running, some questioned whether the $75 billion being paid to mortgage servicers would do more good if instead it was lent to homeowners, especially the growing ranks of the jobless.
“Getting a homeowner’s DTI [debt-to-income] ratio to 31 percent won’t help the unemployed, since 31 percent of their income is zero,” said Paul Willen, a senior economist and policy adviser at the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
…
Anything to keep the hampsters on the debt wheels a running, eh?
They could just defer payments and interest for a couple of years.
Put the loans in forebearance for a while. Not ideal either.
Wonder if there is a HELOC tied to this little headline. 17 years in was buying on the cheap in the middle of the last bust. You’d hope this person has savings. I think a row home in many places, at that time, would be under 100K. So, you are talking about a 50K in debt. Refinancing at current rates would put you at 300$ a month. Actually property taxes will be just about as much, probably in the 300$ a month. 600$ per month is semi-affordable on minimum wage.
Anyhow, save the sob story.
Still reminds me of a conversation in a Home Depot. Was going to get a new towel rack. Talked to Home Depot guy about the ongoing bust. He says “the only way to make out is to take out as much money from the house as you can with your HELOC before it gets pulled”. I said “Dude, if you sell now and rent you will make out; that HELOC is just debt that will have to be paid back”. Sinking look on guys face and then recognition.
“Anything to keep the hampsters on the debt wheels a running, eh?”
Good one, James! Maybe they should retitle the
mortgage modification scheme the HAMPster Program?
I think a row home in many places, at that time, would be under 100K.
In that neighborhood circa 1992 he probably paid around 50k, if his was a nicer row house. The property tax bill runs around $100/month.
Northern Liberties has since experienced gentrification. But a couple years ago if his property was reassessed it’s possible he took money out on the now inflated value.
Yeah. My point on the numbers here. Why doesn’t he have saving to cover this mortage and refinance here.
This sounds like some joker that went out and HELOC’d himself to debt. Similar to what we are seeing all over SoCal. More of the problems are from HELOCs than any other kind of debt.
Not a sob story.
We’re all supposed to sob like crazy, in order to make us feel better about the Obama Economics Team’s scheme to funnel $100,000 or so of tax dollars towards the average mortgage rescue of myriad households who buried themselves in unrepayable debt.
debt that will have to be paid back
Its amazing how many otherwise educated people don’t understand that.
I’m decently educated - and I see all kinds of debt happening that’s not being paid back.
Maybe a couple more years of school required?
Meant to qualify…
I see all kinds of debt happening that’s not being paid back, nor will ever be paid back.
jeebus why wasn’t it paid off already?
Yesterday I said that someone making 20-50K pays little to no income tax. I was asked where do I get this stuff from.
I get this stuff from the IRS as reported by CNN. 69.5% of all tax returns with incomes of less than $50,000 have a $0 income tax liability. When 70% of a group pays $0 in taxes, I think it’s fair to say that someone in that group pays little to no income tax.
Of course the predictable reply will be ‘yea but what about sales tax and fica taxes?’. That’s all fine and good. Except also irrelevant to the discussion of income taxes paid by low income workers.
I know urls can cause posts not to show so I won’t put it here. But google “47% no income tax” and it’s the 1st article that comes up.
Shouldn’t you be at an open house somewhere showing prospective buyers around?
Are they saying zero liability or pay zero tax?
If your AGI is 20,000 then your tax is 2000 dollar range or 10% rate.
If your AGI is 50,000 then your tax is 7500 dollar range or 12% rate.
Like many here on the board… I have to compute things with an accountant buddy that continues to advise me that my hamster, dog and fish are not additional dependants even if they managed to get a SSN.
On another interesting note. I believe for the first 300K or so of mortgage, you don’t get any tax advantage because it is less than the standard deduction. So, the “How much am I sending to the bank instead of the IRS calculation is a lot easier”. Of course then I don’t get to lie about how much I’m giving to the church each year.
So, the discussion sounds confusing from what you are espousing there Eddie.
If your AGI is $20K and you’re married with no kids, your standard deduction is $11.4 K and your personal deductions total is $7.3K. $20K minus $18.7 K equals $1.3K taxable income and a $130 tax bill. But I haven’t even started calculating the low income credit which I’m sure will bring the tax due to below zero.
I thought the AGI was after the standard deduction?
What does it look for with 50K?
$ 4,016 with standard deduction, no dependents.
To further show how the tax code is f****d up, consider this:
Two individuals live together unmarried with one child, both make approx $ 24k a year.
if unmarried, one files single, one files hoh and claims the child.
the hoh return pays no tax and gets eic and child tax credits for a refund of $ 4,526.
the single filer, pays $ 1,860.
if married and files mfj or mfs, their combined return pays income tax of $ 666.
Simple answer the tax code encourages single person families.
should be single parent families.
They’re paying $0 tax. You can twist this as much as you want. The numbers could not be clearer. 70% of people making under $50K gross pay no income tax.
Here’s an example:
Married couple. 3 kids. Mortgage. $45K income which is the median income for households. Deductions on the mortgage interest is $10K. Personal deductions and dependent deductions is another $10K.
AGI after deductions is $25K. Tax on $25K is about $2900.
Then they get a $3000 tax credit for the kids (3 X $1000 per kid). Tax is now $0.
MFJ (married filing joint) with 3 dep, can make $ 54k and pay no federal tax, taking standard ded.
re: ppl w under $50k don’t pay tax
are you stating this is a problem? only in america could the rich get the upper middle class to whine the the regular middle class isn’t paying enough tax!
I wouldn’t much care what the income tax rate is at varying income levels, if my two favorite reforms were adopted:
- No more withholding. Pay -all- your taxes with cash, check, or plastic.
- Move income tax day from April 15 to the first Monday in November.
Do those, and I’ll live with whatever tax code is the result, with no bitching.
Jeez…. maybe we should tax those $50k/yr dirty bastards with kids and do it with verve. They’re living high on the hog don’t ya know. And that way, those “earning” $300k and up can pay even less!
“On another interesting note. I believe for the first 300K or so of mortgage, you don’t get any tax advantage because it is less than the standard deduction. ”
That is the case for people who have few deductions. Typically salaried people who live in states with low state income taxes.
Not sure how you get to $300K though. It’s all depends on the tax bracket, the filing status and the interest rate paid.
Compare the standard deduction to the amount of interest on a typical loan these days @ 300K. For us guys in the middle with out huge investment incomes there aren’t that many deductions.
It is different if you own a business.
For a family of five living on 45K… well… that’s pretty lean living. That is 9K per person, even given the efficiency gathered by living together.
Not attempting to twist this at all here. Basically a technical discussion on what you were trying to say.
I thought AGI was after the standard deduction. You are also throwing in married with three kids which is changing the profile to be much narrower.
$45K gross is the median household income for the country. Lean or not, that’s reality. Something like 50% of households have kids. So it’s not narrowing the profile all that much. 70% of households have a mortgage. I also forgot to add in 401l/IRA deductions which would take off another few thousand off the top and lower the AGI that much more. Then there’s the state income tax deduction, student loan interest deduction, child care deduction. The list is long with common deductions used by millions of people every year.
I’m not saying every single person making less than $50K pays no tax, but most of them don’t. And the ones that do pay a very small amount.
AGI is before the deductions and exemptions. The number after those two items is called the Taxable Income. That’s the number you plug into the tax tables to determine your tax.
Do you use the same tax program as Timmay?
Sorry Eddie, that was a response to James’s post.
It’s simple to figure out really. Standard deduction is $11K for married filers.
300K mortgage at 5% is about $15K interest a year - depending in what year you are. The lower the year, the higher the interest. For a 300K house add another 3K for property tax so 18K. So if you have no other deductions, the true mortgage deduction is really 7K since 11K you get no matter what.
If you have 5K in additional deductions, your true mortgage deduction is 12K. And so on up to 11K of additional deductions in which case your mortgage/property tax deduction is 100%.
For the 2006 tax year, some examples of the deductions from gross income allowable in computing AGI included:
Certain business expenses of reservists, performing artists, and fee-basis government officials;
Health savings account deductions;
Certain moving expenses;
One-half of self-employment tax;
Penalties on early withdrawal of savings;
Alimony paid;
Deduction for contribution to an Individual Retirement Account (IRA); and
Student Loan interest deduction.
Bill, I was too lazy too look it up and forgot the deffinition.
Normally I have an account do the taxes which also includes moms fincially complicated set of holding. Mine are for free.
Other than my income, which is very high, not a lot of write offs.
I’m just about as bad as Geitner on this.
I believe for the first 300K or so of mortgage, you don’t get any tax advantage because it is less than the standard deduction.
The state the mortgage is located in has a lot of bearing as well. The break even is around $125k in Texas.
Why not look at the total effective tax rate which is really what’s important
Top 0.5% pay a lower total effective tax rate 29% than
Those in the next 1-4%
Those in the next 5%
Those in the next 10%
Those in teh next 20%
and about the same as those in the next 20% ie those making about 60k a year.
Now factor in that those in teh top 0.5% also are much better at hidding income and you realize that there real total effective tax rate is probably much lower.
How do you figure those numbers? Assuming absolutely no deductions and taking just the standard, someone making $50K pays $4000 in taxes. That’s 8% of income.
Where in the world do you get 20%?
On the other hand the top 1% pays 40% of all federal income tax. The bottom 50% pays 2.9%. And yet somehow the “rich” don’t pay their share. Amazing.
TOTAL effective tax includes all state and local tax (income sales ect) and payroll tax I believe.
Top 1% makes 1.5mil pays 30.9%
Next 4% makes 250k pays 32.1%
Next 5% makes 144k pays 32.2%
Next 10% makes 101k pays 31.5%
Fourth 20% makes 66k pays 30%
Middle 20% makes 40k pays 27%
Second 20% makes 25k pays 22%
Lowest 20% makes 12k pays 19%
From citizens for Tax Justice.
I’ve read elsewhere that the top 0.5% or maybe it was top 400 richest individuals paid 28-29% Not sure if #’s are comparable.
Again remember that the top 1% are much better at hiding income thus their real total effective tax rate is probably much lower.
Citizens for Tax Justice? Are you kidding me? You might as well use Michael Moore movies as a source.
Here is a partial list of their board members:
Maude Hurd - ACORN
John Sweeney, President AFL-CIO
Joseph T. Hansen, President United Food Workers
Ron Gettelfinger, President, UAW
Rather than bashing the source why not post something that refutes it. I want something that looks not just at US income tax but all forms of tax. Something that doesn’t lump the top 20% together which blurs the benefits the elite have enjoyed.
The problem is FOX news isn’t going to do this kind of research. Better to keep the faithfull dumbed down and defending the wealth strippers.
“Rather than bashing the source why not post something that refutes it.”
Impossible. That requires honesty and intelligence.
Not understanding the table.
Numbers do not add to 100%.
Of course that might explain a lot of the budget.
Math is hard…
It’s not supposed to equal 100.
The effective tax rate is what you actually end up paying in taxes after all the deductions ect.
The total effective tax rate is the % of each dollar earned that goes to taxes (all taxes income sales, federal state ect).
Measton, for example the richest make their incomes, like CEOs small-ish, and options, dividends, and so forth isn’t taxed at the same rate at all. Somewhere around 10% +/- on the bulk of their “income”. Not their payroll income.
Hide and subtract. Rinse, repeat. Hide and Subtract, Rinserepeat.
So you are correct, just that the CEO type of “income” is small and the other is so big and not taxed at the same rate.
The rest of the middle class, lets say, gets paid straight up and their “dividends” are small or non existent, so they pay ALL of their taxes on the full income, nothing to hide here.
$50K pays no tax, but most of them don’t. And the ones that do pay a very small amount.
Paying 28%.
No kids. Little lopsided that I should pay as much or more on my income for your breeding offshoots.
I’ve made less than $50K most of my life. I’ve always paid taxes. Never owned a house, so didn’t have those deductions. Always took standard - still do (though as HOH since I have a child now). Your blanket statement is wrong. I have to listen to people who can itemize because they own a house go on and on about this deduction and that deduction including stuff that sounds to me like it’s cheating the system. I take issue with that, but I don’t get up on my soapbox over it.
Oh, it’s been awhile since we had a real troll here. Let’s enjoy it while we still can. (-:
Oh, it’s been awhile since we had a real troll here. Let’s enjoy it while we still can. (-:
Why Nudge, where did you come from?
I don’t think this post is at all a troll.
Are you referring to someone elses post?
Oh, for all the bomb the moon people out there.
Got up at 3AM to get to work and watch the LCROSS impact.
I couldn’t see much of a plume from the video feed. Seemed like the bird did its job though. The NASA guys got a bunch of readings though. Hope we find some water up there.
Interesting video of the bird comming down. Only 1MB/s feed on the thing so the refresh rate was really slow. They kept switching back and forth to thermal so it was all hard to follow.
Anyhow. Success for the team. Yeah.
Bombing the moon could stand some improvement.
The government should employ 14 or 15 million high school and college dropouts as bomb designers that could work from home. They just have to hand in their homework once in a while to the SEIU/ACORN rep assigned to their neighborhood. $125,000.00 per year doesn’t sound like too much to pay for beginner rocket scientists. But at least they would be able to afford their own homes, which is the #1 priority around the world.
Next we need to really light up the moon with all the big nukes we can, so it would glow in the dark, and you wouldn’t need expensive street lights any more. Let’s shoot off maybe 1 per week and then work ourselves up to one a day, just like the vitamin. This would accomplish the elimination of so many weapons of war, which we no longer need, as we have the Peace Prez right here in our own backyard.
Now, on to the next one…
I know you guys are cynical but these are the little steps into the future.
Maybe it pans out as nothing. Maybe it illustrates this isn’t the way to go.
I’m sleepy and tired but somethat elated that things went pretty well.
We’ve had some good success with things like Chandra X-Ray, Aqua, Hubble systems and hopefully get some good data out of NPOESS when it goes up.
Like to see a new larger ISS go up in a few years and look tword making a Mars mission. Might happen in my childs life time though.
Things are going very well.
Lots of progress going on. Hybrids are a mass market reality after 50 years of being a hobbiest dream. Computers are awsome. Software is awsome. Internet is faster than I thought is could be. Medicine is getting better and better. Met a pioneer in fetal surgery. Amazing guy. Ashamed that I made more money than he did. When we bump into each other on flights, I buy him drinks. New drug treatments are keeping people alive longer. AIDS crisis is still ongoing but treatments seem to be working. Expect EVs to come along sooner than I think. Relations with Japan are good. Think we are finally friends. Relations with Russia are improving. Seems to be way too much food. Not sure that is a problem. Water resources need to be developed a bit. Not a big deal. Renewable energy projects are still moving forward. I think race relations are fine here.
So, I repeat. Things are going pretty well.
Finances are a mess. That isn’t a really big problem. Trying to get people to stop getting beaten over the head with a stupid economic metric like GDP. Then we should be able to get on firmer ground.
Hence, I think we have the resources to dedicate to problems like this without getting all bent out of shape about it.
M’okay?
We need to stop pissing money away on space programs. The earth is our home and we’d better leave fantasy land behind pronto. There isn’t going to be any deep space travel, no Star Trek, Star Wars or any other such nonsense. Humans are to frail. We evolved to live on this planet and we’d better learn to get along and take care of what we’ve got. Plus, either the invisible man in outer-space or our alien overlords are gonna’ get ticked off if we start trashing other planets.
Some of the folks here are from other planets.
I’m from planet commie. :-0
I’m from
Planet Claire
Oh my. That was a nice break from making out my “who should we bomb next” list.
Thanks!
Those thanks are to X-Philly for Planet Claire.
my pleasure…
(I think someone in our IT dept. goofed and gave me access to youtube. Have to take advantage of it while I can)
check this one out - yesterday’s guest post made me think of England:
God Save the Queen
Anyhow. Success for the team. Yeah.
Until the Magical Moon Pixies become incensed and angrily enslave us and make us do silly tricks and stuff.
Let’s just see how you feel about that, Mr. Positive.
I read an article once, was it by Paul Thoreaux? Can’t remember, anyway, some American guy was in the hinterlands of China, in a beautiful rice field at twilight, speaking to a farmer who was there with his water-buffalo farming just as his ancestors had farmed since forever.
A beautiful and classic scene of tranquility in the lovely twilight and the full moon rose and this guy tells the simple farmer about the lunar landing and the astronauts and the giant step for man…the farmer guy just laughs his primitive bum off, it’s the funniest thing he ever heard. He knew Americans were crazy, but THIS takes the whole cake. Absolutely refuses to believe it, and gives a candy or a sandwich or some other treat to the poor madman, as consolation for being insane.
When I read that it struck me, my Jeebus—we live in an age of wonders. Look at what us little semi-bald semi-smart monkeys have achieved! Yes, some fairly stupid things, like bombs and Chihuahuas, but man! We’ve made wonders.
We’ve made wonders.
‘African Dynamo’
http://tinyurl.com/yl6nqy2
So, some kid finds a book and now his village has electricity and wells and irrigated crops and all sorts of nifty stuff.
Huh huh huh?! Yeah! THIS’S what I’m talking about, baybees!
This article here doesn’t go into it, but first time I read about this individual I read that when he started building the windmills his whole village, including his own family, thought he was either bewitched or crazy. But he persevered anyway, and now look!
This is one of the most encouraging things I ever read of. I think it’s wonderful.
I do too,Oly. I saw him 2 nights ago and it was so refreshing to see him, his honestly, his pureness. Like your untouched woods, the National Parks when left to be natural.
He is terrific and I hope we could have more like him.
The Dallas Morning News is reporting that there could be a shortage of news houses next year:
http://www.dallasnews.com/sharedcontent/dws/bus/stories/DN-shortage_09bus.ART.State.Edition1.3cfa549.html
Dallas-Fort Worth could have new-home shortage in 2010
07:50 AM CDT on Friday, October 9, 2009
By STEVE BROWN / The Dallas Morning News
stevebrown@dallasnews.com
Forget what you’ve heard about a glut of new houses on the market.
For three years, Dallas-Fort Worth builders have sold more homes than they have constructed. So the inventory of finished new houses has fallen so low that homebuyers may encounter a shortage when next year’s market kicks off.
Not sure if that means people will buy the old ones, however.
Shadow Inventory say “Hi!”
“says” I mean.
(man, I hate when bad grammar ruins little snipes)
Late last night I posted a reply to stpn2me’s post about Swahili rather than French being a “stupid” answer to what people speak in Africa. Here it is again:
stpn,
I wrote a long and pedantic reply earlier to your comment about Swahili as an answer to what people speak in Africa, but it got eaten. Indeed people speak French in the former French colonies (and Belgian colony) in Africa, but it is not commonly spoken in the former British colonies - which cover a lot of territory, nor in former Portuguese and Italian colonies nor in South Africa. An exception is a tiny Francophone elite in Cairo.
Swahili is the only African language used as an official language for the African union (the others are Arabic, English, French, Portuguese and Spanish). It is the most widely spoken African language, a supra-tribal language (as are Arabic and the colonial languages). It is an official language in Kenya, Tanzania, Uganda, and the DR Congo; it is universally spoken in the Comoros although French is their official language, and spoken by a large minority in Oman.
Modern Swahili was codified as an official language during decolonization from a trade language - the lingua franca that developed in East Africa and the maritime cultures of the western Indian Ocean over millennia of commercial contacts (documented as long established in the first century AD).
Its base comes from Bantu, a large and important central African ethno-linguistic group. A large number of vocabulary words (wiki says 35%) are derived from Arabic, also many from European languages. (The term Swahili derives from the Arabic word sahl [coast, pl. sawahil])
The spread of French in Africa is an interesting part of colonial history, a triumph of central planning and bureaucracy. During colonial times, a student in Senegal or Tunisia studied the exact curriculum day by day as a student in Nice; the French were very effective in spreading education in their language and culture in their colonies, even more so than the British.
But to me, the linguistic and cultural hybridization that grew out of the trading networks of the Indian Ocean, Red Sea, Persian Gulf, and East Africa over thousands of years is much more interesting - a major and fascinating part of world history.
I carried on too much again. But my point is that refering to Swahili speakers in Africa is NOT STUPID, not at all, not at all.
(I also appreciate that Swahili-speaking African Muslims are a very tolerant folk and don’t mind if a visitor enjoys a beer now and then.)
What a very interesting post, zilky. Thanks.
You’re welcome, Oly.
Nothing to do with Swahili or my post, but there was a program on Bill Moyers a while back called Pray the Devil Back to Hell, about a Liberian woman who helped organize women to bring about a peace agreement among warring factions in her country. Lynn Sherr interviewed the Liberian woman and an American woman who made a documentary about her and the other women activists. It’s awesome, inspiring, well worth watching!
After the w-s: pbs.org/moyers/journal/06192009/profile.html
WASHINGTON – The Obama administration’s effort to help homeowners avoid foreclosure may not achieve its goal of helping 3 million to 4 million borrowers and may simply delay mortgage defaults for many, a government watchdog group says.
The Congressional Oversight Panel, charged with making regular assessments of the $700 billion financial rescue fund enacted last year, said the Treasury Department should consider whether to improve the current $50 billion program or adopt new programs to meet an expected rise in foreclosures fed by increased unemployment.
The panel’s report is scheduled to be made public Friday.
It comes a day after the Treasury said its mortgage relief effort has helped 500,000 homeowners and that it was still on track to help up to 4 million homeowners within three years.
“We’ve put significant pressure on servicers to ramp up their efforts,” said Housing Secretary Shaun Donovan. “We’re holding them to higher performance standards.”
But the oversight panel, chaired by Harvard law professor Elizabeth Warren, concluded that the foreclosure crisis has now moved beyond the subprime mortgage market that ensnared many homeowners, particularly low-income families. The program, the report states, was not designed to deal with foreclosures caused by unemployment.
“Serious concerns remain about the program’s scope, scale and permanence,” Warren told reporters in a conference call. “In particular it isn’t clear that 500,000 modifications will be enough to put a serious dent in the foreclosure crisis or to dampen the impact of foreclosure on the broader economy.”
Foreclosures, the report said, are now stalking families who took out conventional, fixed-rate mortgages and put down payments of 10 to 20 percent on homes that would have been within their means in a normal market.
The report’s underlying theme was that foreclosures were bound to take a turn for the worse and that Treasury did not appear prepared to confront a rise in defaults.
“The Obama administration’s effort to help homeowners avoid foreclosure may not achieve its goal of helping 3 million to 4 million borrowers and may simply delay mortgage defaults for many, a government watchdog group says.”
Why bother putting the screws on your friendly neighborhood Megabanker to force them to extend govt-subsidized forbearance to keep home debtors in homes bought with ginormous, unrepayable loans to fund purchases at astronomically high prices? Let’s just hand the 3 to 4 million borrowers facing foreclosure all the money they need to pay off their loans in full, and say they won the REIC funny money lottery fair and square. At $100,000 per rescue, the total tab would come out to 4,000,000 X $100,000 = $400,000,000,000 ($400 bn), which would be far less than last fall’s bank robbery (aka TARP) of $700,000,000,000 ($700 bn) or so.
Wouldn’t this be more honest than covering up the massive $75 bn (and counting) forbearance scheme the Treasury is currently executing? Why not come clean to the American people with where their tax dollars are getting spent, instead of laundering it into the hands of banks and home debtors in the form of monthly payment and principle reductions?
“Builders to take campaign-finance lawsuit to trial
Campaign: At issue is money that backed Dino Rossi”
http://www.theolympian.com/southsound/story/996605.html
‘..At issue is $582,000 collected by the Member Services Corp. in 2007 for use by the builders’ political committee to promote Dino Rossi’s campaign for governor in 2008. The money came from local builder groups that agreed to set aside a portion of their insurance premium refunds from the state “Retro” program that the BIAW manages for members.
The money’s existence was not reported to the public until August 2008, drawing a formal complaint from two retired Supreme Court justices, Faith Ireland and Robert Utter, who criticized the secret fundraising. The money was one piece of the more than $7 million that the BIAW’s ChangePAC spent in the governor’s race to promote Republican Rossi and attack Democratic Gov. Chris Gregoire, the eventual winner…
What?! Are they claiming that builders, whom I previously thought to be bold bastions of moral rectitude, may in fact be slimy, sneaky, pandering, craven, wretched as*shats?
How can this be?
With the Fed funds rate pinned to the mat for an indefinite future period, the Fed is relying heavily on jawboning to contain inflation expectations. “I’d gladly tighten on Tuesday for stimulus today.”
The moment unemployment begins to drop, watch out for an unprecedentedly steep series of Federal funds rate increases.
market pulse
Oct. 9, 2009, 12:15 p.m. EDT
Fed’s Kohn: Stable inflation expectations are key
By Greg Robb
WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) — The Federal Reserve does not want to take policy steps that might upset the public’s view that inflation is likely to remain stable, said Federal Reserve Board vice chairman Donald Kohn on Friday. To ward off the risk of deflation from the recession, academic research teaches that a central bank should promise to keep rates low enough to create a brief period of above-normal inflation. But the Fed has not gone this far. It has only promised to keep rates low for an extraordinary period. In a speech at the central bank, Kohn said the central bank had rejected the academic research as unsuitable for the real world where inflation fears could spin out of control. “We should not take this stability for granted,” Kohn said. “The costs of bringing expectations back to their current anchored state might be quite high,” Kohn said, in a veiled reference to aggressive interest rate hikes.
…
To what extent must taxpayers pay to keep people living in houses they can’t afford? Doesn’t “government money” come ultimately, and always, from the taxpayer? Lew Rockwell explains:
“And where is this money coming from? You can use all the fancy words you want, but in the end government has no money. Everything government has it gets from you. That is the most fundamental lesson of political economy, without which no clear thinking takes place. And yet it seems to be the most covered-up truth of our times. So if you know this one point, you will be leagues ahead of almost everyone else in thinking about these issues: one way or another, you will pay.
“How will you pay? It can happen through the old-fashioned method of taxation. Or it can happen through more debt that will have to be paid in the future. Or it can happen when the Fed creates new money that eventually shows up in the form of dollar depreciation, and this is the most insidious method there is.”
Rockwell predicts home prices will fall, and these mortgages will eventually be re-priced. Bankers and real estate agents don’t want to hear this. Nor do householders who have big mortgages hanging over their heads. They’re all waiting for inflation to bring things back to “normal.” Don’t bet on it!
OMG, check out this quote:
“I don’t think it’s a bad thing that the bad loans occurred. It was an effort to keep prices from falling too fast. That’s a policy.”
Barney Frank, chairman of the House Financial Services Committee on recent FHA lending.
Finally, some straight talk from the Frankster; in other words, “we intentionally wrote bad loans in an attempt to prop up the housing market.”
We knew it was happening all along, but I’m a little surprised that he would come out and just SAY it.
We knew it was happening all along, but I’m a little surprised that he would come out and just SAY it.
Me, too.
It was probably an accident. Or else he was drunk.
You mean he’s not normally drunk? Perhaps he was sober!
You mean he’s not normally drunk? Perhaps he was sober!
Even worse!
Wrong MA congressman. It was Tip O’Neill who was drunk.
Patriotic Foreclosures!
Just remember to wave a flag as you gather your $hit up from the front yard and load it in the U-haul.
It’s WINSTONomics 101. What’s the big deal?
Hey, didn’t I *tell* you guys that Barney had to know they were slowing down the falling prices, not stoping them. Local governments can’t adjust to lower property taxes that quickly. Yes, it causes the pain to last longer and untimately affect more people, but, really, it takes a while to convince public employee unions to give in. Really, it does.
Just who IS Lakshman Achuthan? Isn’t this the guy that was saying “Subprime is yesterdays news.” just before the whole mess caved in? Now he’s saying that the V-shaped recovery is unstoppable. Of course, this is on TechTicker which leaves a lot to be desired. They do have good interviews, though.
Roidy
P.S. I.T.B I.G.H. T.C.F.I.
test
Finally a expert on CNBC business channel confirms that it was Wall Street and the Banks with the CDO securities market that created the meltdown, not Freddie and Fannie or any government mandate to make bad loans for the purpose of home ownership . Apparently the Government and the regulators were simply incompetent and no doubt the lobbying and de-regulation was instrumental .
I have know this all along ,but it nice when a Expert confirms it . Course the CNBC cheerleaders started arguing it . Blaming this mess on a faceless government trying to promote home ownership has always been a ploy of Wall Street/Banks to take the heat off themselves .
Finally a expert on CNBC business channel confirms that it was Wall Street and the Banks with the CDO securities market that created the meltdown, not Freddie and Fannie or any government mandate to make bad loans for the purpose of home ownership . Apparently the Government and the regulators were simply incompetent and no doubt the lobbying and de-regulation was instrumental .
I have know this all along ,but it nice when a Expert confirms it . Course the CNBC cheerleaders started arguing it . Blaming this mess on a faceless government trying to promote home ownership has always been a ploy of Wall Street/Banks to ta
ke the heat off themselves .
Yes, nice to know finally from an Expert. Wish the rest of the goons on cnbc, “never met a banker I didn’t like Baroma” et al, would finally come clean.
Sorry I didn’t catch the name of the guy ,but I’m hoping that I can go back and get a clip of the tape . Somehow I think these people think that if they blame it on a faceless entity or concept to provide home ownership for the poor ,than it makes it more acceptable what they did .
I remember the guy that started that line was Mozillo ,way back in late 2005 or early 2006 and I remember him saying stuff like that to try to blame it on a mandate or something like that .
WASHINGTON – The number of job seekers competing for each opening has reached the highest point since the recession began, according to government data released Friday.
The employment crisis is expected to worsen as companies stay reluctant to hire. Many economists expect a jobless recovery, putting pressure on President Barack Obama and congressional Democrats to stimulate job creation.
There are about 6.3 unemployed workers competing, on average, for each job opening, a Labor Department report shows. That’s the most since the department began tracking job openings nine years ago, and up from only 1.7 workers when the recession began in December 2007.
The highest point after the 2001 recession was 2.8 workers per opening in July 2003, as the economy suffered through a jobless recovery.
Green shoots.
Gotta load up on stocks ahead of the 3-day weekend, don’t want to be caught holding cash in case something utterly fabulous happens before the market opens again. Maybe scientists will develop a real soma drug where people can work twice as fast and live twice as long and consume twice as much in half the time.
The DJIA hit a new high for the year today, unless you convert its value into units of gold. The gold-denominated price likely fell for the week, given that gold went up by 5% or so in a couple of days…
Ok, PB, why is gold so important? If it gets valuable can’t they go an mine more? That has always been my argument with gold as an intrinsically valued currency. In the past centuries, gold was hard to come by. Very hard to come by. With our current mining and refining expertise, gold is just not as durable a standard.
As a matter of fact, there is nothing except human effort and inventiveness that is that kind of durable. Of course, human arrogance, stupidity, and idiocy are fairly durable, also. I give you the credit bubble, housing bubble, etc. as sterling examples.
Roidy
“If it gets valuable can’t they go an mine more?”
Ditto for all other minerals (oil included). Unless all of it has already been found and extracted, higher prices lead to increased search effort (which becomes more cost effective at higher prices) which leads to increased extraction, more supply and lower prices.
Until, eventually, it is too expensive to find and extract any more, at which point it is time to find a new energy base.
Who will be Sheila’s dates at the FDIC Friday’s bar today?