The Housing Bubble

Isn’t “V” being remade this fall season? Maybe it’s not robots but aliens?

It’s going to be remade as “Big V” with robots AND aliens

Forecast- Eddie will change his name again and re-surface with the same rusty rhetoric.

You said or implied that mortgages aren’t being modified and it’s all a show. I said 500K have been modified so far. If you want to pretend they haven’t fine.

From WSJ 10/9:

“Citi Mortgage has now started trial modifications for 33% of its delinquent borrowers that the government estimates are eligible. Through August, Citi had modified loans for 23% of its HAMP-eligible borrowers.”

23% in the 4 months since the program was started. That’s insignificant to you?

I didn’t say I don’t give a crap about your PTB. I said the clerk at a call center doesn’t. I’m indifferent to your PTB as I am indifferent to all conspiracy theories.

Just look at how easy it is to make it look like something meaningful is being done - with words (or hot air, depending on how you look at it).

’started trial modifications’

“Started”? I started on my nobel peace prize campaign this morning too.

What the heck are “trial” modifications?

“delinquent borrowers that the government estimates are eligible”

Estimates? Eligible? Throw in a percentage and the actual number is unknowable. Then you say 500k and admit right away that it doesn’t mean a damn thing.

Then we get the inevitable “conspiracy theory” name calling. Yes, I’ve been blogging about UFOs and the grassy knoll all this time, and not the biggest financial disaster in human history. This one is particularly funny to me, as those of us on this blog were called this and much, much worse in 2005.

What was your point again Eddie?

I guess the banks (and the government) really believe that if they can successfully promote the illusion of stability and a ‘bottom’ in foreclosure activity then there will be a ‘turnaround’ in house prices and another bubble so the people and banks will be ‘rich’ again. Ad

Dog put its head on enter key, sorry. Add an extreme attempt to provide a backdrop of strong inflation by the Fed and you have everyone fooled that they better get in or be priced-out forever again. Which is the attitude it would require for a ‘recovery’ to take place.

“I guess the banks (and the government) really believe that if they can successfully promote the illusion of stability and a ‘bottom’ in foreclosure activity then there will be a ‘turnaround’ in house prices and another bubble so the people and banks will be ‘rich’ again.”

BINGO. And it’s that strategy for all commerce in the US for the last 30 years. Monthly U. Michigan surveys, consumer sentiment indicators, etc etc are the only metrics the PTB care about. In other words, disregard reality and facts such as your own personal balance sheet and throw caution to the wind and go out buy junk, rather, go commit financial suicide.

Have often disagreed w/ exeter, but certainly not in this case. The US phony economic growth of the past several decades was probably based more on credit expansion than on internet, telecom, etc. Would be interesting to see a credible economist try to sort that out. Slightly different in the developing world, where cell phones & internet were the initial hookup with the world…so they benefited more than we in TV&phone land. Domestic profits of US tech enterprises probably depended on getting more people to buy marginally useful gadgets.

Blog filter ate my post (we’ll see if it appears later). I often disagree w/ exeter but certainly not in this case. Phony US economic growth of past several decades probably depended more on credit expansion than on internet, telecom, etc. It would be interesting to see some credible economist try to partition it. For the developing world, tech advances provided genuine infrastructural improvement. In the US just a way to get consumers to buy more gadgets of questionable utility.

Troll alert.

“In other words, disregard reality and facts such as your own personal balance sheet and throw caution to the wind and go out buy junk, rather, go commit financial suicide.”

Throw in stimulus which is targeted at increasing the temperature on all the various cardboard thermometers of economic health and you have the makings of a recovery.

“In other words, disregard reality and facts such as your own personal balance sheet and throw caution to the wind and go out buy junk, rather, go commit financial suicide.”

Throw in stimulus which is targeted at increasing the temperature on all the various cardboard thermometers of economic health and you have the makings of a recovery.

+1

… plus ignore the massive amounts of red growth in other
less-flaunted thermometers.

Dog put its head on enter key, sorry

“I guess the banks (and the government) really believe that if they can successfully promote the illusion of stability and a ‘bottom’ in foreclosure activity then there will be a ‘turnaround’ in house prices and another bubble so the people and banks will be ‘rich’ again.”

I think its more about keeping the populace from getting angry and demanding an end to the shenanigans.

“… plus ignore the massive amounts of red growth in other
less-flaunted thermometers.”

All true believers in Keynesian economics please repeat after me:

There is no macroeconomic budget constraint.

There is no macroeconomic budget constraint.

There is no macroeconomic budget constraint.

There is no macroeconomic budget constraint.

There is no macroeconomic budget constraint.

…

“Dog put its head on enter key, sorry”

“On the internet, no one knows that you’re a dog.”

Finally, a honest-to-goodness post by a dog!

“Dog put its head on enter key, sorry”

Yeah, my cat keeps trying to get in on the action. I thought they couldn’t read but she keeps staring at the monitor even when I walk away and leave her there.

Probably mesmerized by the refresh rate flicker, which is too quick for our persistence of vision.

Considering that a cat can get mesmerized looking at a daisy or a sock, that must be the kitty equivalent of the dog that sticks his nose out the car window and gets a rush of smells going by at 30 mph.

I didn’t realize they could perceive that. Neato info.

“In other words, disregard reality and facts such as your own personal balance sheet and throw caution to the wind and go out buy junk, rather, go commit financial suicide.”

Throw in stimulus which is targeted at increasing the temperature on all the various cardboard thermometers of economic health and you have the makings of a recovery.”

… I second the +1, pack.

Tim Young and his wife, Asheley Biesemeyer-Young, of Beaverton.

You’d think you’d want to dump a name like Biesemeyer at the first opportunity, not turn it into a graceless, tortured, hyphenated target for ridicule.

“I just think this loan modification thing is a big scam,” she said, “a way for the banks to get more money out of the government.”

I agree. I also think that loan mods that don’t include any sort of writedown of the principal are doomed to failure.

Ben,

I believe in UFOs. I don’t buy that there is a secret group of 20 guys somewhere in a secret location pulling all the strings. Sometimes things just happen.

LOL, dj, you are SOOOOO right. I have seen a lot of what you have been pointing out recently, ever since I took a part time gig. Holeeee Crapola, it’s just unbestinkinglievable. The sheer stupidity and illiteracy of it all, no wonder we’re in trouble. I don’t even know how some of these people live.

Oh, and drugs in the workplace? Real problem. Including the legal ones, the prescriptions people are taking. Some companies demand drug tests. While I can understand it, maybe we should be asking to see the drug tests of the owners and managers.

Thanks Palmy:

Maybe equality in drug testing will happen one day. Considering a coked up VP can steal 100-1000 times more then I can on the loading dock!

Yes Stupidity, I apply to music/dj/promotion companies and put my link to myspace on it…yet almost none of them can click on the link….Since they email back for a meeting and no questions or observations about the music. Even an “It Suxxx” once in a while would be nice…but this is so over their pretty little heads I’m scared for our country.

These kids just cannot comprehend any dj who can think outside the box and do something totally different.

————————————————————
maybe we should be asking to see the drug tests of the owners and managers.
—————————————–
The sheer stupidity and illiteracy of it all

It is possible that they have software on their computers that blocks social networking sites like myspace?

That depends on the company of course, and I would expect a music promotion firm to be more open about that sort of thing than, say, a big 4 (3?) accounting firm since they do work on those sorts of sites, but it is possible that the HR department is blocked. Just a possiblility.

Adult employees want adult wages.

Polly;

I would think if you couldn’t acesst myspace at work you would check it out at home…but then we are talking about chicky-poo airheads, not real people.

———————————-
It is possible that they have software on their computers that blocks social networking sites like myspace?

True, so the company doesn’t want an ADULT face when you contact them..ok its a trade-off

————————————–
Adult employees want adult wages.

Adult employees ask too many questions. They’re looking for tabula rasa.

“Adult employees want adult wages.”

Exactly. It’s all based on paying the least amount possible. With that model, you get either the aforementioned younguns, or dimwitted adults. I’ve mentioned that, years ago, I worked for B of A. They actually used to have some smart, promising employees. I rarely call them, but did sometime within the last month. What I got on the phone can only be described as an uneducated woman from the south, likely of African American heritage, with an attitude the size of King Kong, who had not a clue about banking. She was an expert on rude behavior, and was even chewing food in my ear. It was absolutely disgusting.

And yet you are calling them to do business with them I presume??

I had already gone into the branch to withdraw the remaining cash from my checking and savings accounts, and I was calling to close the accounts. So, while that may constitute “business”, technically I was calling to sever business ties. Presumptions, presumptions…

I don’t like BOA. My once upon a time boss asked me why I didn’t use the bank our company dealt with. He claimed I would be paid quicker. I had direct deposit so it really didn’t matter. I told him that I had been with my bank since it had opened its doors, that one of the men who started it was a friend of my fil(true), and that I liked their policies. Still with my hometown bank but not with that company.
I don’t think my boss was simply being friendly and not asking for the company because he couldn’t be bothered to do most of the work he was suppose to do.

In the late 60’s early 70’s my first bank account (savings) and checking was with BOA. At that time it was a good neighborhood bank. Then the fees started up in the early 70’s. After a couple of times with extra fees, I moved on. The BOA customer service model changed in the early 70’s and became the nickel and dime you bank. AFAIK the customer service model of screwing their customer is still the same.

screwing their customer is still the same.

amen sistah!

Hi. We’re from the bank and we’re here to help you.

That was my impression too, Edge. $4K in closing costs just to save $7 a month. Pocket the fees and pass the lack of bucks up to Fannie and Freddie, just like 2005! This must be the new racket the banks conjured up to keep the gravy train running — on the taxapyer’s TARP dime no less.

And I love that the one women “sucked in her breath” at the mention of walking. Ding ding ding! That’s what they fear most!

Oh, and a quickie rhetorical Q: Why would BoA encourage getting roommates? Shouldn’t these roommates be getting refi’s themselves so they don’t have to be somebody’s roommate in the first place?

Ha, probably BoA wants those magical roommates to walk from some other chump bank. It’s yet another example of our cannibalization economy. e.g.: let some other chump company employ and provide health care for American workers. Then those workers can use their wages buy our products made by slave labor in India…

Tragedy of the Commons…

‘refi-ing nonstop’

This is where the government/press stuff is really laughable. (I recall at one point years ago, 80% of the foreclosures in Colorado were refis.)

Here is what the loan modification thing means in a refi situation; ’say Mr Delinquent, I understand you sold (refinanced) your house to Wall Street at the peak of the bubble. But have no fear, we are going to give you a chance to BUY THIS DEPRECIATING ASSET BACK. On credit of course, so you get the pleasure of paying all those thousands of dollars, with interest.’

Throw in the fact that these people will never have to actually FACE the people whose money they got, and I’d say the chance that this will work is zero. One more thing and I’ve got to get to work. Many of the foreclosed houses I see have a common aspect; these people were angry. They pour paint on the floor, strip out faucets, AC units, and do other things too gross for AM blogging. I can only guess that their inclination to step up and pay back what they owe is fairly small.

It’s yet another example of our cannibalization economy.

Oh yes. And it can only last so long until the roof caves in.

Interesting the venom the FB’s have when vacating the premises.

I have my eye on another shack in Dutchess Co. NY. I don’t much like living here but the place is quite nice and *could* be an excellent score. So last Wed afternoon, wifey and I do a drive by. Sure as the sun rose this morning, the FB’er and a crew of labor were palletizing pavers and architectural blocks that were once part of a parking area and retaining wall. I did a driveby yesterday and there are still curtains in the windows but no evidence of anyone on site. They have to be out by tomorrow so we’ll see what’s left of this place when I drive by this afternoon.

Anyone can be charged with trespassing until it goes to the court house steps tomorrow and the house is only a week old on the public REO lists so I’ll wager the bank will be the high bidder at $109k.

“…other things too gross for AM blogging.”

Why is it again that so many people think they can pick up nuggets of gold through foreclosure investing?

Why is it again that so many people think they can pick up nuggets of gold through foreclosure investing?

I’d be curious about Ben’s take on this, being that he’s fairly well versed. My impression is that you can actually, however you have to do your homework and legwork.

Kind of like yard sales and such. There is *tons* of crap out there, but if you do some work you can find some really good antiques and such amongst the garbage.

If they do a regular refi, doesn’t it sometimes convert the mortgage to a recourse one? Do the refi’s under the government program remain non-recourse only?

That (plus the upfront fee that can be booked as revenue immediately under accrual accounting rules) would be enough for me to prefer doing it through the regular refi department. Heck, instant conversion to recourse loans would be enough for me to vastly prefer them even without the fee. A non-recouse loan has to be written down to the value of the underlying house eventually. With a recourse loan, you don’t have to write off the loan until after you have forced the holder into bankruptcy. And you can go after their kid’s college funds and stuff before that happens. Big difference.

oxide,

Excellent points. And it doesn’t stop w/ mortgages, banks etc. I like to call it “I tightened my belt FIRST!”

The “property manager” ( there’s a laugh ) for the building my office is in never fails to bring up “just what a tough environment they’re operating in!” Translation? Don’t even bother to ask if there will be decorations during the holiday season, and you’re lucky you’re not bringing in your own toilet paper!

I once got an earful on being late w/ rent ( brother passed away ) and how they NEED the money ‘on time’ b/c of all the garbage collection they pay for! Hey, DUDE, we don’t -have- collection service at our building! What’s your point? I swear it’s as bad as high school kids chipping in for a beer run. It’s happening on so many levels.

“My impression is that you can actually, however you have to do your homework and legwork.”

By ‘picking up nuggets of gold’, I was suggesting many folks may be envisaging an easy path to riches through foreclosure investing without needing to do homework and legwork.

Gotcha.

Unfortunately most people buy into the tourist trap “pan for gold!” real estate equivalents - thinking they can get rich off the stuff that’s already been picked through by the real experts.

Ben’s reference to owner activity he couldn’t mention to an am audience reminded me of why my search for a primary SFH home is less likely to include foreclosures.

A month or so back I told you about a foreclosure that was covered and I mean covered in mold, top to bottom. Burst pipes were sticking out of wood floors, ceilings and walls. It must have gone to a flipper who’s fixed it up and put it back on the market. The old price was no where near low enough for the repairs necessary and the new price is way out of line for the neighborhood but that’s not the worst of it.

My husband used to be a builder. The flipper’s crews were only in that house for a couple weeks. Not long enough, in my husband’s estimation, to properly clean up that mold and repair all that damage. There were no mold clean up logos on the vehicles outside the home while the work was being done. The photos make it look like a nice new house. Who knows what’s lurking beneath.

I’ve come across a few websites of local flippers and their new and improved properties. I’m guessing that’s where some of the properties I thought were selling for too high a price were going. One website is offering to finance the properties w/balloon loans. Others may make money due to paying less for their materials than I would but I think many will still end up being bag holders. In the meantime, they’re sucking up inventory that would otherwise sit at prices I won’t compete with.

I’m kind of surprised with peoples REACTION to the bank here. Really, is it any surprise at all that their first, second and third suggestions are going to be ways to actually repay the the loan in full? Would you expect them to offer a cram-down out of the goodness of their (non existant) hearts? Now a reduction in principal or a short sale are probably better for them than a foreclosure would be, but any of them are vastly inferior to having the loan paid according to terms.

Now at some level, they haven’t really recognized the degree to which being massibly underwater is a game-changer for the borrower. Really this isn’t surprising, since the degree to which people are underwater on their mortgages is UNPRECEDENTED. We’ve haven’t seen situations where large numbers of borrowers are underwater by more than their annual income in our lifetimes. Even the few people with experience in the loss mitigation (loan mod) departments aren’t used to this. They’re accustomed to a job-loss or medical crisis which people MIGHT be able to recover from. If they get a new job, or the med bills are over, extending their payments may well allow a borrower to become current. They’re still thinking of a world where “extend and pretend” actually works 40-70% of the time if you choose which borrower to mod carefully.

Plus there’s some question about exactly how much they can take in losses before the bank examiners start becoming antsy. Now of course BofA is too big to fail, simply because the FDIC literally can’t afford to close them down. But they still would like to pretend that they’re solvent, because a bank run will put them out of business.

Is there anything I might be overlooking?

Recourse vs. Non-recourse? Sounds like it’s not an issue for you, but that’s the only thing I can think of…

Let’s see … the bank called you out of the blue and offered to change the interest rate on what they charge you from 5.75 percent to 5.125 percent with no attached fees.

Question: Just why would they want to do this?

You tell me. That’s why I’m on here asking! As near as I can figure it’s because they don’t ever want the loan paid off - they want somebody paying them money every month forever.

Question: Just why would they want to do this?

Isn’t that what Michael’s asking?

Maybe they’re afraid you’ll jump ship and go to another bank making a similar offer.

With their cost of money close to zero a 5.125% interest rate still makes a great spread.

Would this be considered a “Loan Modification” under Tarp?

It would mean lower interest payments…hmmmm….rebate from the Fed?

————————————————
Question: Just why would they want to do this?

“Isn’t hat what Michael was asking?”

No, what he was asking was whether he was overlooking anything, not why they would want to do this.

No cost in accounting terms may mean something different that what you think.

Not sure when you recieved the offer for 5.125 percent, however, they were offering 4.875 last week. I had contacted them in the past and they typically charge a .25 percent higher rate to offset the closing costs, appraisal, etc. Seems to be a standard practice for most banks. It’s still a good deal if you continue paying what you were paying before.

Or aNYCdj mentioned they need to up thier stats for loan modifications.

Michael….Wait!! Don’t sign yet. Ask them for a quote for a 15 yr mortgage. The rate should be about .5% lower, and you might find that the payment is about the same, only you’ll pay it off even faster. Combotechie is right, the reason they are offering to do this is because they will make money on the loan, and if they don’t do the refi for you, chances are very good that someone else will. You should be looking at about 4.625 no points on 15 yr loan.

Oops,

Right, they typically charge .125 to .25 percent higher depending on how much you’re borrowing.

The reason they are making the offer is that they are only servicing the loan, not holding it.

So since they don’t own it, they lose nothing from the change in interest-rate.

And they do generate fees in the process of generating and selling a new loan to Phonie/Fraudie.

It’s all win for the bank.

I concur with so cal lender: check the rate and payment on a 15yr. If you plan to pay off early anyway, and can afford the higher payment, you may as well get the lower rate which will lead to payoff even sooner.

Something else to consider. The 15 year is better deal. However, the benefit of the 30 year is a lower payment in a worst case scenario. For instance, you continue paying what you’re paying today, however, if you lose your job you can fall back on the lower payment.

Want to bet they will charge closing costs on the 15 year?

What SoCal said about the 15 year. Keep in mind that “no out of pocket” fees does NOT mean no closing costs added to the principal amount. But really, less than a percent is just not worth 10 more years of payments. 10 years into a 30 year loan, a larger portion of each payment goes toward principal reduction, and a smaller part towards interest. Even if you don’t intend to hold the loan to term, I wouldn’t be at all surprised if amount of interest that you’d be paying each month would go UP because of the lengthened term.

same thing happened to me about 8 years ago, except my mortgage was with a different mtg co when wf solicited me. we checked it out and went with it. there was no catch. it worked out very well for us. funny thing is, we now have a mortgage with wf at a different house and they’re not so helpful anymore. the offer you got cannot be requested, it’s only by “special” invitation. good luck

Good question Michael.

Sounds like the bank, origionators, servicers or holders of the loan may be under some form gov’t or regulatory pressure to SHOW some type of activity or interest on their loans possible due to TARP or some other braindead gov’t policy for their records or reports.

What is the benefit of Michael making this change in 30 year mtg, if the plan is to make the same payment?

Lowers his REQUIRED payment so in the event something unforeseen happens he has something to spare each month?

Jim A….Your right regarding the fact that he is paying down
more principal and paying less interest on the loan at the 10 year point . Also issue of if the loan turns to a recourse loan for
the bank verses a non-recourse loan . Banks love for you to turn in a seasoned loan of 10 years and start the 30 year term again , ( according to the rule of 76 ,you paid the highest % of interest on the loan for the first 10 years and it keeps
going down monthly what goes to interest and what % goes to principal .) I ,myself would not do it unless you saved at least 3% interest or more below the current rate ,and your rate is pretty low to begin with and its not a adjustable . You can always pay the loan off in 15 years if you want ,no need to set it on a new 30 year term for that low of a interest reduction . IMHO

I would do a simple excel spreadsheet that compares the various options: current mortgage, refi to 30, refi to 15. I’m assuming that they are capitalizing some closing costs. If they are not, then the computation is much simpler, and I probably wouldn’t bother with the spreadsheet.

Run the amortizations out, and see where the cross-over points are—e.g. when does the refi leave you with a lower principal balance than your current mortgage? At that point, you are better off doing the refi, since you owe less AND have a better rate.

If the break-even timeframe looks reasonable, and you are sure you will be in the house for at least that long, go for it.

Also do consider whether there might be any scenarios where walk-away makes sense for you (sounds unlikely), and the possible change from non-recourse to recourse with a refi might make be a factor.

Just noting that as a lender I have occasionally made unilateral offers of a slight decrease in interest rate together with a greatly extended term. And my reason was the exact one that Michael Viking himself mentioned: demand for my loans was weak at that time, and I wanted a longer-term income stream.

OTOH, I am the owner of all the notes I negotiate, so as Prime_Is_Contained noted, a bank that only services the note would have additional motivations.

Thanks for all the advice and things to think about. I’ll look into the recourse business, and I like the idea of the lower payment rather than a 15 year loan with a higher payment (but lower interest rate). My payment would have gone up with the 15 year loan. I checked and if I pay the same amount per month I’m paying now, the loan would pay off about a year earlier than my current one and I’d save about 14K. Seems worth it now, but maybe in 19 years it’ll only get me into the movies. By myself.

Well, I’m no expert on picking nuggets from gold, but I can safely say that as the buyer and seller of many homes, some of them quite dubious, and having been in and out of the landlording business, you’d really have to know your stuff and simply be able to crunch some numbers and know how much any repaird ( not major improvements ) would be before wading in too deep. That being said, there’s money to be made as a landlord, but it’s certainly no “Rich Dad, Poor Dad”, ” Buy this property for $ 500 in Back Taxes and Become WEALTHY ” set-up. That being said, the only way I’d buy something right now was if it was in foreclosure….

repaird = repaired. I have the day off and my brain is spelling words phonetically - I must be giddy.

Well, you have to imply that you’re slipping into foreclosure, but based on our remaining monthly income and (lowish) expenses, we still “qualified” for regular mortgage. I had heard so much about it that I decided to see what it was really all about, and came away unimpressed. I liked it when our mortgage was held by Wells Fargo for a couple of years. Much better bank/service/people, in my personal experience.

Have I mentioned that the Florida Flippers who borrowed from me in fall ‘08 and [they] lost money on a 3BR FC are doing it again? Since I myself did make money by lending to them (Oct 08-Mar 09), I am perfectly willing to let them lose some more money now that they think they have a better idea of what they’re doing. I will say, the house they’re getting this time seems like one I wouldn’t mind getting stuck with. I’m lending $48K towards their $60K purchase, and the house actually has a pool.

Thanks much.

Thanks much.

Done. I didn’t think it would be that easy.

I write such incredibly extensible code, I scare myself sometimes.

Hey lavi d.. you write code etc? Can we talk?ellis.karATg mailDOTcom

Any realtor can give you a list of foreclosed properties for nothin’. Of course, you’ll be hounded by them after that, but you won’t have to pay for anything ( unless you buy LOL ).

Absolutely!

And quality of life equalization!

Dung huts and 1 bowl of rice a day for all - except the bankers, of course!

I wonder how effective another “Cash for ______” would be? Eventually they’ll run out of fence sitters who still have good credit or money in the bank.

Or, ‘I am manically depressed and crashing’.
What book are we talking about? I think they might be one in the same. J/k.

whoops. “manically panicking and crashing’.

whoops. “manically kernel panicking and crashing’.

Just hope you have a fresh tape backup.

I think ammunition and silver coins will be the next bubble.

I sure hope so!

‘Specially on the ammo. The high price of which is keeping Slim and Ole Bessie away from the shootin’ range.

And I do miss my target practice.

Ammunition has been in a bubble for almost a year now.

Ammunition has been in a bubble for almost a year now.

That is what I hear from FWGs friends with guns!

Bragging will get you everywhere az…its cool you are doing what you like.

You get to travel, have fun and have an interesting business, I always wondered how hard money lending really worked. Thanks!

Yes, I am bragging in a WAY…but then again the point I am really making is that lending to MH people is my version of “day-trading, house-flipping antics” since REAL work (a) doesn’t pay well, esp after taxes; and (b) is hard to find.

Why not? You don’t hate them …do you?

Maybe a friendly visit with a box of Duncan donuts and coffee this weekend, and you can explain everything and show them Ben’s blog.

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I so wanted to tell her to move Out.

dj, will do just that tomorrow! With donuts of course to soften the message.

Let us know how the conversation goes, dd. I feel bad for your friend.

No credit cards run up by teenagers can be paid off far sooner than a baby with someone known as “mybabydaddy”. I know several grandmas that are raising their “wonderful”, free grandchildren from dear teenager daughter. Put their teenagers on their own, or take them to the ( dare I say it, well, yes, I will ) Planned Parenthood clinic for what must be done, but don’t, don’t, don’t fall into the trap of raising dear daughter’s baby. She’ll just produce another one if she’s bailed out.

According to nieworld (dot) com,

You have to pay for the online version. Or, if you’re a teacher with an NIE number you get it for free.

<>

When the CC offers arrive in the mail for my college aged kids I tear them up and throw them away.

No credit cards run up by teenagers can be paid off far sooner than a baby with someone known as “mybabydaddy”. I know several grandmas that are raising their “wonderful”, free grandchildren from dear teenager daughter. Put their teenagers on their own, or take them to the ( dare I say it, well, yes, I will ) Planned Parenthood clinic for what must be done, but don’t, don’t, don’t fall into the trap of raising dear daughter’s baby. She’ll just produce another one if she’s bailed out.

Yeah, well - my comment was pretty much tongue-in-cheek. No way in hades I’d raise my kid’s kid - we’d go to an adoption agency as a last resort, with first resort being just raise the kid.

Point being the at this point I view easy debt as one of the vilest evils of the universe right now. I probably would allow a teenager to get a credit card actually, in order to teach them financial discipline. If they didn’t pay it off every month then they’d be going out back to find a switch off the nearest tree.

Be like Ben Bernanke and

“1. Make your own dollar bill. Draw your face in the middle. Design the rest of the bill.”

… then, make a few trillion more.

Things you post remind me of that uncle sometimes and I know he spends time online. Although I’ve always known him as Jim, I presume his given name is James.

No no - it’s:

“I am your father’s brother’s nephew’s cousin’s former roommate.”

Get it right!

In case James wasn’t my Uncle Jim - I was cleverly trying to avoid asking “Uncle Jim?’ and getting answers like “Susie? When did you learn to read and write?” “Nephew Bobbie?” etc.

Live and learn.

So it IS different this time! LOL.

Hwy provides an example:

“More and more people are buying houses and McMansions today than ever before. Yet there is more foreclosures and short sales among the home-moaners. This makes it clear that these people are being corrupted by purchasing real estate.

P.S. Don’t get me wrong - I’m not proposing we get into a trade war - IMO a trade war is usually a lose/lose proposition; since trade by its nature is usually win/win. Just pointing out that that’s an irrelevant historical precedent.

World trade is already down 30-40%.

But as long as American’s are ok with a little lead in their toothpaste and sulfur in their drywall, price will be king.

a trade war is usually a lose/lose proposition; since trade by its nature is usually win/win.

Tade is a win win when natural resources are plentiful and it creates a larger pool of middle class consumers. As soon as natural resources become scarce trade is not a win win. The cost of goods goes up, thus fewer people can purchase them, thus companies cut back on employment. Labor fights for who will work for less to take the remaining jobs and labor costs fall. Thus fewer people are able to afford the product and the cycle continues until consumption of natural resources falls sufficiently. It’s a win for those that control natural resources and a loss for labor and anyone who makes or sells products to the middle class.

What you’re describing as a “not a win win” isn’t trade though, it’s resource control, e.g. one party having control of key resources and the other not. The downsides of that are true whether trade happens or not.

You’re dead wrong about this:

As soon as natural resources become scarce trade is not a win win. The cost of goods goes up…

A no-trade scenario would causes costs to go up much worse than a free trade scenario, since the entity that’s lacking the resources is lacking them even more if they don’t have the ability to buy them.

E.g. imagine how much the price of oil in the U.S. would go up if all of the sudden OPEC stopped selling to us. Indeed it’s an empirically-proven scenario - see the mid 1970’s.

Comparative advantage says you’re dead wrong.

In a nutshell it says a rich country like America should not waste its resources making trinkets. Let China and India make trinkets cheaply. Their comparative advantage is cheap labor. We on the other hand concentrate on “making” things internet apps and financial products. Our comparative advantage is capital and knowledge based workers.

Unions are by their very existence a roadblock to efficient use of resources. Unions artificially raise the cost of labor above the optimal market value which is where marginal cost equals marginal revenue. Or in other words when a UAW slob gets paid $73 to screw in a door on an assembly line - and screw it in poorly at that - he’s getting overpaid and why Michigan is a 3rd Wolrd country.

Exactly. We are VERY rich in natural resources.

Exactly. We are VERY rich in natural resources.

Ding, Ding, Ding!!!!

But will our tree huggers let up long enough for us to be able to tap our natural resources?

But will our tree huggers let up long enough for us to be able to tap our natural resources?

Probably not….

But will our tree huggers let up long enough

For your sake, hopefully, then your entire US will be one ugly burned out trashed environs including your precious NC. Which used to have and may still have some of the most polluted waters due to many things like pig farm runoffs and other toxic spoilers. Now you wouldn’t want that, would you stpn?
Or as long as it isn’t in “NIMBY”.
Protect mine, skroo your land.
Just saying, if no one wants to protect the non toxic environs and pollute the he L out of everything, as the one senator said, ‘yep that bill I signed won’t affect me, so I don’t care’, in effect.

Ha, in the Washington with the DC attached…they been mightily mining over ne’r 100 years looking for that gem called “common sense”…rare rare commodity indeed.

Having the political and social guts necessary to do this is another question entirely.

Had to repeat that for prosperity’s sake.

Funny you should ask.

There may be a grain of truth there yes. Certainly:
- The Chinese like us buying their stuff
- We buy more of their stuff if it’s cheaper for us
- It’s cheaper for us if the dollar in stronger relative the RMB
- The dollar is stronger if people are buying treasuries

However it’s kind of like the Hunt brothers cornering the market on silver in 1979/1980. You can get fabulously wealthy if you buy enough of something to affect the supply/demand price curve - actually causing prices to rise on the thing that you already own a ton of. However to keep this wealth you have to either:
A. Keep buying the something indefinitely (impossible), or
B. Sell before people get wise to you and/or you run out of money to keep buying.

Nelson Hunt didn’t, so he went broke.

I believe the Chinese are starting to wake up to this reality - they’ve found that trying to corner the market on dollars (or dollar-pegged investments like U.S. treasuries) isn’t such a hot idea, so they’re slowly getting out; or least not going all-in like they used to. They’re hedging by trying to diversify into other sales markets - like their own consumers, for one thing.

I don’t know about Prof. Bear, but let Sammy state for the record: I dumped like crazy over the past week, after loading up the truck last November/December. Ugly times ahead for stocks is my short-term prediction.

Roasting rat kabob over a trash can fire, sipping Thunderbird out of a brown paper bag with my newfound hobo friends … say, is that you, Suzanne? Yeah, I’d say these are the best of times.

Today, right now, is the best day of the rest
of our lives. When things start unfolding, the
slide is going to look like a cliff.

slide is going to look like a cliff.

Sort of like the playground steel slides of the 50’s-60’s, enough pitch to make it exciting, and on a hot day, something to remember-ouch. Not those sissy, plastic things that have no pitch to them.

Or, as in slothy’s case, when a hot chick is drinking it, and offers you some, and you want to get lucky.

But that is it.

LOL That is funny. Slothy?

I’ve read Charlie and the Chocolate Factory at least 5 times.

Me, too! And the sequel, ‘Charlie and the Glass Elevator’ at least 5 times as well. Roald Dahl is super.

Hmmmm…I think I liked Johnny Depp a tad more. Although I always did appreciate the faint creepiness and bug-eyedness that Gene Wilder brought to the role. How about you? Who do you think is the best Willie Wonka?

I liked both of them, though I do lean more towards Johnny Depp.

When I watch Charlie with Gene Wilder I can see the future Young Frankenstein.

For me when you have the combination of Johnny Depp and Tim Burton how can you go wrong.

I am sooo looking forward to “Alice In Wonderland”, a Tim Burton film starring Mia Wasikowska, Johnny Depp, Helena Bonham Carter, Anne Hathaway…
Opens in March 2010.

Tim Burton is a great story teller. “Fish” was wonderful too. Bonham Carter (played Charlie’s mom in Wonka) and Tim Burton are married in real life.

Sounds awesome. I didn’t know that Helena Bonham Carter was married to Tim Burton. She’s such a great actress.

Burton, Depp, and Bonham Carter were horrible in Corpse Bride. The script was so bad that I started shouting my own script ideas at the screen. (I came up with a more romantic storyline for the same basic characters.)

I don’t remember it as horrible, although I recall thinking the idea was pretty stupid. I bet you did come up with a better storyline.

I saw that film at the Alamo Drafthouse - I was probably enjoying my Malbec and black bean burger so much that I didn’t care very much about the execution of the film.

I was just looking on IMDB for a film in which HBC played a junkie, couldn’t find it. It may have been a made-for-tv movie in the UK - it was about or at least included morally bankrupt Mayfair toffs, and stuck in my mind because her character was so unattractive and unlike her Merchant-Ivory characters.

While I didn’t find it, I found this about the HBC/ TB partnership:
They live in adjoining residences in London, sharing a connecting hallway, and have two children. Nice arrangement.

Spannnnnnnng on.*

I’m glad I went to see, because I didn’t see your stories about your sister last night and it would have been a shame to miss such good stories.
Thanks.

*Loudly blows ‘Shave and a Haircut’ on handy trumpet.

Wow..that is really fantastic, I love it. It was a great choice

Oh, I forgot to mention the very best thing about her that she is always so happy and a very funny person. Hilarious might be a better word. She was the funniest little kid in the world. She can still give me a silly grin, look or an eye roll and we’re off all over again, laughing and chuckling over nothing like a couple of imbeciles that never grew up.

You do that, don’t you?

Do you?

What initials? What state? How is it going? Charts plz for reference.

It starts small but if more people thought this way, Who Knows?

That is great. If I owned this joint, It would be solar in a New York minute, new windows, waterless water heater, insulated-finished garage with insulated garage door, and hot/cold running -super efficient houseboy or maid. J/k. Wishful thinking on that last part.
When I get ‘mine’ I sure will be on top of it.

When those fall to $1 or less per watt….we will have a Boom for the next 20 years just installing them on 100 million homes in America..

100 amp service x120 volts= 12,000 watts for $12,000 or less you could be off the grid for months at a time.

———————————–
contemplating 5kw of photovoltaic if the panel costs fall to 3$ per watt.

park my favorite old beater on the balcony

Good idea. Shoot, hang up a beer-can wind chime and drape a couple dirty tube socks over the railing while you’re there.

I can see the govt using lots of Edward Bernays style spin on the economy. Every year they use a different angle, but you can almost hear “Eddie” turning the steering wheel. The Think Tank names are really impressive too. Eddie would be proud. (He died in 1995 at 103)

Even the speed train project for California has a $19M PR budget. Why in the world would you need to waste that kind of dough on something like a train. Some PR firms won the lobbist lottery.

Kaiser Permanente’s “Thrive” PR campaign costs over $50M-$60M a yr. What a waste of $. I’ll write the esoteric cr*p on the radio for 1/5 of that.

The sun will come up tomorrow, and the wacky world will keep on spinning.