October 15, 2009

Bits Bucket For October 15, 2009

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Comment by wmbz
2009-10-15 05:33:12

Foreclosures rise 5 percent from summer to fall
Foreclosures keep soaring as unemployment remains main cause of housing woes. October 15, 2009

WASHINGTON (AP) — The number of households caught up in the foreclosure crisis rose more than 5 percent from summer to fall as a federal effort to assist struggling borrowers was overwhelmed by a flood of defaults among people who lost their jobs.

The foreclosure crisis affected nearly 938,000 properties in the July-September quarter, compared with about 890,000 in the prior three months, according to a report released Thursday by RealtyTrac Inc. That puts foreclosure-related filings on a pace to hit about 3.5 million this year, up from more than 2.3 million last year.

Unemployment is the main reason homeowners are falling into trouble. While the economy is likely out of recession, the unemployment rate — now at a 26-year high of 9.8 percent — isn’t expected to peak until the middle of next year.

Mortgage companies sometimes allow unemployed homeowners to defer three to six months of payments while they are looking for a job. But there’s little else they can do.

“The sheer scale of the problem is preventing the loan modification programs from having the kind of impact we’d all like” said Rick Sharga, RealtyTrac’s senior vice president for marketing.

Comment by Stpn2me
2009-10-15 05:57:02

Hello everyone!!!!!

Listening to “Play it at your risk” by Planet Patrol…God, those were some good days…:)

Unemployment is going to be a killer in the next 3 years in my opinion. I am going to wait to buy….I buy a couple of acres somewhere…and hold on to them…

Comment by scdave
2009-10-15 08:01:48

Unemployment is going to be a killer in the next 3 years ??

Need to qualify that a little bit Step…It will be a killer alright and in many ways it already is but it is in the private sector… Government with both employment, pay and benefits is doing quite well thank you and most government retirees that I know are living large…IMO, we have hit the tipping point..Its a train wreck…Buckle your seat belts…

Comment by DinOR
2009-10-15 08:31:04

scdave,

http://www.pensiontsunami.com

( Of particular interest to CA’s! )

In other words, enjoy it while it LASTS public employees. Yesterday was a line in the sand moment for me. I’m no longer taking applications for the Russian proverb about the man whose neighbor has a goat and when granted one wish ( rather than a goat of his own ) he wishes his neighbor’s goat died!

This is the LCD Defense public employees have used for years. Back in the 80’s, it might have flown. Any more, it’s moot as the cupboards are bare. But you keep on keepin’ with ‘that’ now!

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Comment by Eddie
2009-10-15 08:56:29

My inlaws are both recently retired ex-govt employees. MIL retired at the ripe old age of 57. FIL at 59. They were both lifers, getting their 1st - and only - job with the govt after graduating. Great pension, health care provided for, house paid off, all 4 kids out of the house.

Assuming they live another 25 years which given their excellent health is quite probable, they will have spent almost as much time working as they will receiving payment from the govt for not working.

Nice gig if you can get it.

 
Comment by peter a
2009-10-15 09:08:36

? Can the people vote down the pension? Can we vote to cut benefits to pensioners legally?

 
Comment by Jon
2009-10-15 09:23:52

“Can the people vote down the pension? Can we vote to cut benefits to pensioners legally?”

That would be dependant upon the language of the Constitution or other governing documents of nation/state/municipality. Legally, you may be able to do it.

Morally, its a different question. But most folks are only too happy to take from others these days for their own benefit.

 
Comment by packman
2009-10-15 09:32:31

My inlaws are both recently retired ex-govt employees. MIL retired at the ripe old age of 57. FIL at 59.

My BIL - state employee - is going to retire with pension in two months at 55.

However note that by comparison GM employees
are (were?) eligible for pension at 48. Not a small factor in their bankruptcy path, I’m sure.

 
Comment by james
2009-10-15 09:45:22

You guys are all looking at the little fish.

Promoting fighting amongst the serfs is a sport for the rich people.

 
Comment by DD
2009-10-15 09:57:27

You guys are all looking at the little fish.

Promoting fighting amongst the serfs is a sport for the rich people.

DITTO.
The wealthy love that ‘we’ fight about the crumbs.
Drive on James, nothing here to see. ahem.

 
Comment by Eddie
2009-10-15 10:06:44

Oh please quit this nonesene.

When govt employees retire in their mid-50s with full pensions and benefits while private sector employees have to go another 10-15 years with no pension/benefits when they retire, it gets a little irksome.

 
Comment by DD
2009-10-15 10:12:06

quit this nonesene.

 
Comment by packman
2009-10-15 10:26:54

When govt employees retire in their mid-50s with full pensions and benefits while private sector non-union employees have to go another 10-15 years with no pension/benefits when they retire, it gets a little irksome.

Clarified that for you.

And - saying that private sector gets “no pension/benefits” is stupid, even for non-union. I’ve never been in a union, and yet I’ve got pensions from two different companies coming when I retire (albeit small ones, since I had short tenures). That doesn’t include 401k.

 
Comment by JLR
2009-10-15 10:41:15

work for the state .. Maryland … just doesn’t work this way anymore - at least not for newer employees. not all employees are allowed into pension system, and when you are, you pay increasing % in every year to pay for all the current retirees. And benefits are not as good. I don’t expect the pension to be there when I qualify anyway …

 
Comment by SanFranciscoBayAreaGal
2009-10-15 10:58:38

Ummm, don’t people have the right to chose where they want to work private vs. government? All of you government worker bashers, why haven’t you gone and worked for the government?

 
Comment by DinOR
2009-10-15 11:07:05

JLR,

I can attest to that. My daughter won’t even come -close- to getting the package offered to older workers. ( I should think by now it would only be too obvious it was completely UNsustainable ) But as you’ve noted, I got’s mine.

SanFranciscoBayAreaGal,

Again, that would have made a great defense going back to 80’s, possibly early 90’s. After that point, there really wasn’t any turning back. What PensionTsunami -won’t- tell you is the avg. Calpers recipient gets an avg. ( I believe ) of closer to $26k-$27k per year in pension. Not including ‘other’ benefits, cash only.

A far cry though from those top 6,133 that amass over $100k per year. The ‘real’ problem w/ your suggestion ( and I’d hoped this would have been obvious too… ) is that we can’t ALL work for the State.

 
Comment by Al
2009-10-15 11:10:37

Public service pay seems to be slower to rise during the good times and very, very resistant to going down when times are bad. This time, though, I think times are bad enough that pay cuts are required. Pensions will take a hit too. Government should always reflect the society it serves, for better or worse.

 
Comment by AZ Retired
2009-10-15 11:32:41

During the early 1980’s the Reagan admin. got FERS (Fed. Employees Retirement System) passed. I am only somewhat familiar with this program but as a recall, Fed employees contribute to a pension plan that pays them 1% per year at retirement, they are allowed to contribute up to 15% to a Thrift Savings plan with Gov’t matching for the first 5% and they contribute to SS and will draw from that when they are old enough. Therefore only about 25 to 35 % of the average of their high 3 years salary comes from the Fed. Gov’t as a pension. They are subject to the general market for the Thrift plan and receive SS as it exists for everyone else.

I think this is a fair system that costs the Fed. Gov’t very little. Now the various state retirement systems are a different story.

 
Comment by rms
2009-10-15 11:33:27

“Assuming they live another 25 years which given their excellent health is quite probable, they will have spent almost as much time working as they will receiving payment from the govt for not working.”

No problem here; these folks put in their time.

Now lets look at a welfare queen squeezing out a fresh puppy every year from a different dawg each time. Add up the section-8 housing, medical, prisons, victim’s expenses, etc., and we’re talking about serious money. There is no transparency in the social safety net’s true costs.

 
Comment by Eddie
2009-10-15 12:12:32

Yeah they put in their time. But working 30 years and then collecting a pension for 30 years? Doesn’t seem quite right.

 
Comment by laurel, md
2009-10-15 14:44:37

I worked 14yrs for a local gov unit and receive $770mn at age 55

 
Comment by X-GSfixer
2009-10-15 14:47:58

Acquaintance of mine’s wife works for the state…….hired on right out of high school, as a weekend dispatcher. Because of her seniority, she calls in sick on one of her three days EVERY WEEKEND.

She is currently eligible for a partial pension at 38.

 
Comment by Shizo
2009-10-15 15:19:18

I’m calling BS on this one. Whine with your cheese?

I can’t tell you how many times I was told that working for gov cheese was dumb, and I should go to the private sector where I “could make some real $” This was evident with little to no interest in posted jobs available with ave response being 5-10 applications/resumes (if we were lucky) for each opening- most unqualified. It was like pulling teeth to get a job filled here. The BIG money was elsewhere… Until now. What a difference 3 years make.

We are getting 150+ responses for EVERY opening- most overqualified. Now I’m told practically weekly how smart I am to go for the pension and benifits. WTF? You can’t have it both ways people. Sounds like many made their choice and now want to switch… TOO LATE.

So here I sit working structured hours with structured pay and retirement. I see similarities with this subject and what this blog is all about. Buy now and go for mucho profit, or, sit and rent because you knew it was crazy to begin with. I went with “low” pay knowing there would be a little shelter when SHTF.

But then again- I’m not in Cali-land pulling a 6 figure salary. I make $48K/year (before tax) and I am happy with it.

 
Comment by SanFranciscoBayAreaGal
2009-10-15 17:34:32

Well, no DinOr, it works for the 2000s also.

You have a choice to go work in the private industry or the government. And I’m not saying we can all work for the state. You can put your application or resume for a government or private job. The PTBs will then decide to interview you and if you are the right person you will be offered the job. This is free choice. You can choose to go with the government or stay in the private industry.

 
 
Comment by scdave
2009-10-15 09:31:15

DinOR…Yes I know…Its nothing new at least here in California and particularly Silicon Valley…The pensioners are on their way..They don’t give a rats a$$ how it is paid as long as the auto-deposit is made…Its not just the pensioners though, its the current workers…Our local DMV workers did a sick-day walk out a few days ago encouraged by their union because they lost a paid Columbus day holiday…It closed a number of DMV offices around the area sending a lot of people scrambling to find a open DMV…Do you think those workers or their union care ??

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Comment by Eddie
2009-10-15 12:20:12

“And - saying that private sector gets “no pension/benefits” is stupid, even for non-union. I’ve never been in a union, and yet I’ve got pensions from two different companies coming when I retire (albeit small ones, since I had short tenures). That doesn’t include 401k.”

401k is irrelevant. It’s money put away by the worker not given by the employer.

Second, you **GOT** pensions. Those days are long gone. A pension is non-existent in the private sector. Even IBM which had the mother of all pension plans got rid of it for new hires a few years ago.

I work for myself so I wouldn’t get a pension even if companies did offer them. Still pisses me off that I have to subsidize government “workers” who do nothing for 30 years while drawing a paycheck and then get to spend the next 30 drawing a pension all from the taxpayer.

Had I know the racket working for the govt truly is, I would have done it after college. It’s too late now. To qualify for all the good stuff, I’d have to be there until well into my 60s.

 
Comment by Jon
2009-10-15 12:39:58

Americans back in the ’50’s & ’60’s, both private and public, expected and demanded pensions from their employers, so they got them. Current private sector workers neither expect nor demand pensions so they don’t get them. I don’t see what the issue is.

 
Comment by DinOR
2009-10-15 12:47:15

Jon,

And I can’t harp on that enough. In the 90’s everyone thought their next dot.com IPO would be the road to early retirement, in the 2000’s it was your ‘home’ that was going to make you rich!

While you still LIVE in it!

Of course both are patently ridiculous but it doesn’t stop us from living out our fan….tasies. In the end, more people will be working harder and longer as a result of their unreasonable expectation of ‘early’ retirement.

 
Comment by packman
2009-10-15 12:54:29

401k is irrelevant. It’s money put away by the worker not given by the employer.

Pretty much every employer matches 401k contributions to some extent; usually somewhere from 3-6%. Mine tacks on an additional year-end contribution of about 5%; so it ends up being about 10-12%.

I’m not sure how this compares with normal pension contributions - but to say that 401k company contributions are irrelevant is ludicrous. 401k’s are taking the place of pensions at many companies. They may not be the same in scale (I’ve never seen data, but would be curious), but they are significant - certainly not “irrelevant”.

To make a general statement to you Eddie - you’re a very opinionated person - but you really need to learn more about a lot of subjects before you make most of your statements.

 
Comment by Jon
2009-10-15 14:05:11

Packman,

I’m a public sector employee in Florida and in a position to know. My employer pays 11% of my income to the state retirement system. We have a 401k (actually 457B) program with no match because of the pension benefit. I contribute about 6% of my income to that. It used to be 10%, but I decided to pay off my house instead.

The State provides the option for employees to take the employer contribution and use it as a 401K instead of the pension system, and many choose to do so.

I am in the senior executive class of the state pension system. So I will get 2%/year of service at the average of the 5 highest paid years. If I retire at less than 30 years or age 62, 5% of the benefit is deducted/year.

2%/year for 30 years in the Hell of public sector IT runs out to 60% of my highest 5 years. I plan to leave at age 58 which will give me 25 years (assumes I’m not fired for going insane on a politician). I will work somewhere else until age 63, so that I don’t take the 5% hit.

Where I work, the average pay is $39K and most folks get the regular service level of 1.4%/year. 30 years * 1.4%/year = 42% * 39K = $16,380/year pension. Hardly a reason to work for the government for 30 years.

Special services class for police/fire is a 3% multiplier. 33 years gets you 100% of pay. Start at age 22, work until 55, be a top dog and you can get $100K/year for the rest of your life. That’s where the gravy is.

 
Comment by laurel, md
2009-10-15 14:54:08

I have worked for 3 civil/mech/arch companiies that had 401k plans. The most any had was a match max of $1,800yr

 
Comment by In Montana
2009-10-15 19:04:05

My company has never had a match. We suck.

 
Comment by packman
2009-10-15 20:54:28

I have worked for 3 civil/mech/arch companiies that had 401k plans. The most any had was a match max of $1,800yr

I’ve never seen a company have a dollar figure as it’s max. I’ve worked for 3 companies as well, and all had 50-100% match, on 6% employee contribution; so company’s was 3-6% match, which works out to $4-6k given the federal max at the time (now I think it’s $15k or so).

 
Comment by DD
2009-10-15 22:30:15

My company has never had a match. We suck

Mine too, montana. Except for mgmnt, and 1% for non union FT which these days there is only 1/4 are ft. There ya have it. Sux.

 
 
 
Comment by DinOR
2009-10-15 08:54:47

“Unemployment is the main reason homeowners are falling into trouble”

More lip service. We all know the reason they’ve chosen to ‘couch’ things that way is the banks want to avoid saying:

“Consumers have figured it out. They’ve connected the dots and realize there’s no way in HELL their home will -ever- be worth what they paid on it and ‘that’ is why they’ve opted to live rent free. We’d give ‘em the boot but we already have too many REO’s on hand”.

Show of hands, how many here have gotten laid off, divorced, had a death in the family, had medical issues ( sometimes all at ONCE! ) and STILL managed to stay current or get caught up on their mortgage!? I’m willing to bet quite a few.

In fact if you look at it statistically, the liklihood you’ll make it thru the 30 years of a loan without one or more of those happening to you are almost NIL! Can we stop making excuses for these people already?

Comment by packman
2009-10-15 09:36:42

Show of hands, how many here have gotten laid off, divorced, had a death in the family, had medical issues ( sometimes all at ONCE! ) and STILL managed to stay current or get caught up on their mortgage!? I’m willing to bet quite a few.

Raises hand.

I was laid off last year and out of work for about 3 months - no problem and no sweat.

Everyone needs to save up at least 6 months salary for just such occasions. Additionally you can always tap into 401k/IRA if it comes down to that.

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Comment by DD
2009-10-15 09:51:44

you can always tap into 401k/IRA if it comes down to that.

Of which you will be double taxed. It is a backstop though.

 
Comment by packman
2009-10-15 10:06:13

Of which you will be double taxed.

Referring to 10% early withdrawal penalty?

I was thinking more of loans - at least for 401k, which aren’t subject to the penalty nor to tax. Though I’ve never done it, so not sure the logistics; e.g. I’m not sure if you can take out a loan against your 401k if you’re unemployed - however I’m pretty sure the 10% penalty is waived in that case.

 
Comment by DD
2009-10-15 10:13:54

Of which you will be double taxed.

Referring to 10% early withdrawal penalty?

Nope. You borrow, you use that $ which gets used as taxable income, then you pay it back, then you get it at retirement which is then taxed.

 
Comment by packman
2009-10-15 10:33:07

You borrow, you use that $ which gets used as taxable income

That’s only true if you don’t repay within 5 years. Otherwise you’re not taxed on borrowed funds. After 5 years it’s considered an early withdrawal (subject to the tax and the 10% penalty).

 
Comment by DinOR
2009-10-15 11:14:04

DD,

I believe there are some exceptions such as a “Hardship Loan” etc. But that’s getting wrapped around the axle. The point is that *packman sucked it up and did-what-he-HAD-to-do!

How many ‘foreclosures’ are out there where there hasn’t been a (single) missed paycheck? Again this boils down to what we called the “No-fault Housing BOOM Option”.

If the house goes UP in value, then great! Continue making payments ( if only from subsequent and ’serial’ re-fi’s! ) If it doesn’t..? Well then walk away or better YET, stick around and live Rent Free until the Sheriff comes knocking! Either way, YOU ‘win’.

 
Comment by polly
2009-10-15 11:49:57

DinOR,

I don’t think you can get a loan from a 401(k) if you are not an employee at the time. My recollection is also that you have to pay back any outstanding loan if you are fired/laid off/otherwise cease to work for the employer.

So, if you want to use the 401(k) money after being laid off, taking it out and paying the taxes is the only way to go. However, you are correct that you aren’t paying taxes on it twice. You take it out and pay taxes and penalty. That is it since you didn’t pay tax on it when you earned it and put it in the 401(k). Any new money that you use to “replace” (it is really just starting the savings process again) is not taxed when earned and contributed and is taxed when taken out. It is new money. It is only taxed once.

DD,

A loan is not taxable income. You get taxed if you withdraw money from deferred tax accounts, not if you borrow it. The 401(k) loan programs have a lot of rules and not everyone is eligible to participate, but I dare you to find any circumstance in the tax code where a legitimate loan is considered taxable income. It can happen when a loan is forgiven and the relief from responsibility to pay the debt is considered income, but not the loan itself. Not ever.

 
Comment by DD
2009-10-15 11:51:24

ome exceptions such as a “Hardship Loan” etc. But that’s getting wrapped around the axle. The point is that *packman sucked it up and did-what-he-HAD-to-do!

Didn’t say packman didn’t. Think you might have misunderstood my post, or it came much lower than originally intended.

 
Comment by DinOR
2009-10-15 12:54:51

polly,

True, again according to the original survey though, they were referring to males vice females “tapping” their ret. plan so I kind of worked off the assumption they were still employed at their company.

That aside, if your sucking… bad enough to have to tap your ‘former’ employers plan, suffice to say you can’t have that much income to owe taxes ‘on’. So it ‘can’ be kind of a wash.

My guess is that without the ability to do a cash-out re-fi ( our ace in the whole for the last decade or so ) these people were bound for trouble with or withOUT missing a paycheck? Oh and another possibility is to draw against your rollover ( for no more than 60 days! ) get current, and then hopefully be able to re-fi or sell ( right! ) and then replace said funds within the time allowed. But that’s kind of living in the 90’s, isn’t it?

 
Comment by packman
2009-10-15 12:59:58

FWIW - there wasn’t much sucking up I needed to do, due to severance. However if need be I could have gone 12 months without a significant change in lifestyle, and probably 2-3 years without doing something drastic (like selling my house or borrowing from 401k).

Also FWIW - I really shouldn’t cast stones at those who don’t save up as much as me - I do make a pretty decent salary, so it’s a little easier for me to save than most. Nevertheless each person should still save up a significant amount, and live their lifestyle according to what they can afford. And not expect others to bail them out when they don’t.

 
Comment by polly
2009-10-15 13:59:57

Isn’t it incredible that here at the HBB a lot of us consider emptying the 401k a drastic measure. I wonder where the rest of the country puts that “solution.” Before eliminating restaurant meals? Before skipping manicures? Before selling the nice car and getting bare transportation? Before cutting down on expensive after shool activities?

 
Comment by DinOR
2009-10-15 14:32:06

“Before eliminating restaurant meals?”

NOW we’re getting somewhere!

“I could have gone 12 months without a significant change in lifestyle”

Or… you could have gone 12 months without paying your mortgage/”rent”? I understand that for a lot of families, even if you have the experience and wisdom to see tougher times coming, to set aside cash. It’s not always that easy.

But what they ‘can’ do is make adjustments in their consumption habits/lifestyle. We had an NPR audio link a year or so back from a young couple in Modesto ( the Free Rent Capital ) and the gal actually said; “Now that we’ve given up on paying our mortgage it’s nice to be able to afford a baby-sitter so we can go out to dinner a couple of times a week” or words to that effect.

 
Comment by Spokaneman
2009-10-15 15:04:18

A fellow member of Sr. management in my last place of employment typically earned in the low to mid $200’s/year and never put more than the matched amount in the 401-K (5%) and as near as I could tell, had no other savings or investment programs. He claimed that his $million house (30 year min down loan) on the golf course was his retirement investment, because Real Estate never declined in value. Well, now that company (consumer discretionary products) is all but TU (I’m gone but employed elsewhere), everyone there is working at 60% of previous base pay and no bonus money. Most of the company’s locations are in the tulies, so the ability to find other employment locally is very limited if not impossible

I wonder how the guy is doing. Even if he is margially able to keep up with the payments, the stress of living that way would make life all but not worth living, at least for me.

I learned in the ‘82 recession, live below your means, save way more than you think you need to and assume that next year is going to be tougher than this year. Then, sort of as if by magic, when you hit your late 50’s and early 60’s you are kind of bullet proof. I’m pretty much working for the enjoyment of it now, or at least to avoid boredom, and for health insurance. If I lost this job tomorrow, I could ride off into the early retirement sunset without any huge hiccups (except for that health insurance thing, but no plan is perfect).

 
Comment by Happy2bHeard
2009-10-15 22:29:28

‘Everyone needs to save up at least 6 months salary for just such occasions.’

Agreed, but you can still be hurting if you are unemployed for 18 months. Unless you are ready to retire and live on your savings for the rest of your life, you can reach a point where your best laid plans go awry.

‘Additionally you can always tap into 401k/IRA if it comes down to that.’

Assuming you haven’t already tapped it and it hasn’t become your 201K or less. I have a friend who lost everything last year - house, 401K - and went BK. She is starting over at 60. Fortunately, she is healthy and in good spirits. She is still enjoying life and not letting it get her down. We agreed that when you can’t change your circumstances, you can change your attitude.

 
Comment by DD
2009-10-15 22:35:27

That’s only true if you don’t repay within 5 years. Otherwise you’re not taxed on borrowed funds. After 5 years it’s considered an early withdrawal (subject to the tax and the 10% penalty).

FWIW, in general you guys were right, except, the one caveat…
if you withdraw/take a loan against your 401k which is pre tax. And you pay it back with money that is taxed- which is the ONLY way you pay it back, and then you take it out again when you retire, it is taxed again. DBL taxed. See? Otherwise, yes. If you dont’ get matched funds go roth ira.

 
Comment by ahansen
2009-10-16 00:51:42

“…when you hit your late 50’s and early 60’s you are kind of bullet proof…”

My all-time favorite cross-stitch sampler hung in the office of a studio producer. It read:

“Assume nothing.

-God.”

 
 
Comment by Jim A.
2009-10-15 10:16:53

“Unemployment is the main reason homeowners are falling into trouble” –us sayeth the banks which were issuing liar loans and teaser-rate exploding ARMs. Because unemployment can’t be blamed on lack of underwriting. And nobody should look at how giving borrowers loans that they never had any reasonable expectation of being able to make the agreed payments on allowed them to bid up house prices to unsustainable levels.

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Comment by dude
2009-10-15 12:15:01

Raises hand.

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Comment by VaBeyatch in Virginia Beach
2009-10-15 10:42:56

Wow, I love old school electro / hip-hop. I emailed the contact at the website for Newcleus to seek permission to use one of his songs, and Cosmo-D himself replied with a yes. I was floored.

Newer rap stuff (1995+) is so negative, I see it as destructive to the black community, even tho I’m white.

Comment by hip in zilker
2009-10-15 10:49:22

Michael Franti and Spearhead do family-friendly, human-friendly, life-affirming anti-misogynistic rap hip-hop with a Rasta reggae twist. There’s a little “street grit” here and there, but no gangsta kind of stuff.

Lyrics like: “no sistah worth less than any brother…”

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Comment by Arizona Slim
2009-10-15 10:52:44

Michael Franti recently played at the Rialto Theatre in Tucson. Before his performance, he stopped at KXCI-FM, which has been a huge promoter of his music.

Since KXCI was in the midst of the fall membership drive, Franti signed a bunch of his CDs. It was his way of thanking KXCI for its support.

I wasn’t working the pledge phones when the Franti CDs were offered as premiums, but I’m told that they were snapped up in a hurry.

 
Comment by aNYCdj
2009-10-15 11:10:18

But Zydeco is Integration music, I find that very rare in America.

 
Comment by DinOR
2009-10-15 12:57:50

aNYCdj,

If you want a real kick, Rory Gallagher’s album “Fresh Evidence” is laden w/ Zydeco influence. Lots of fun, sadly his last album.

We miss ya’ Rory.

 
Comment by VaBeyatch in Virginia Beach
2009-10-15 13:47:32

I remember Spearhead. There are other positiveish rap songs, of course. Blackalicious. I like Immortal Technique. And I have to admit it, I tend to listen to some nerdcore hiphop, Jesse Dangerously, YTCracker, MC Chris (even tho he was pretty rude to a friend), MC Lars, etc. Sage Francis has good stuff.

Old school? Man Parrish - Boogie Down Bronx. Mmm vocoder.

 
Comment by aNYCdj
2009-10-15 16:54:08

This is much better Va:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=APPJHQXFylU

Sage Francis Yes Old school Before Wu Tang

 
Comment by hip in zilker
2009-10-15 18:55:44

AZ, thanks for the anecdote about Michael Franti. It’s good to know that an entertainer who seems to be a nice guy apparently actually is - not just playing one.

VaBeyatch, I never heard of nerdcore hiphop. But nerd is my tribe - I’ll check it out.

 
Comment by Va Beyatch in Virginia Beach
2009-10-15 18:58:49

Yea I know Matisyahu! But his later stuff is way more regge. I saw Crystal Method, and he collaborated with them on a track that is easily the best on their new album. Matisyahu wasn’t at the show. Neat stuff tho.

 
 
Comment by Michael Viking
2009-10-15 11:19:18

Of course he replied. Isn’t he from outer space and he came here to save the human race?

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Comment by X-philly
2009-10-15 13:14:33

I think that’s George Clinton.

 
Comment by hip in zilker
2009-10-15 13:46:19

Or Sun Ra?

 
Comment by Michael Viking
2009-10-15 14:16:45

Nah, I’m sure the lyrics are available online. As I recall them:
I’m Cosmo-D from outer space
I came to rock the human race.
I do it right because I can’t do it wrong
That’s why the world is singin’ this song.
Jam on it.
:-)

 
 
 
Comment by exeter
2009-10-15 16:23:11

“I buy a couple of acres somewhere…and hold on to them…”

And do what…. Ride it right to the bottom? (laughing)

Go for it.

 
Comment by arizonadude
2009-10-15 19:29:53
 
 
Comment by REhobbyist
2009-10-15 06:23:07

The article described a man who hasn’t paid his mortgage since early 2008, and is still waiting for a bailout. He’s actually pretty lucky.

Comment by edgewaterjohn
2009-10-15 06:37:56

Yeah, he seemed upset that the bank would want to roll all those missed payments back into his balance. Like playing a game of chicken. I wonder who is better at playing chicken, the banks or the FBs?

Comment by VaBeyatch in Virginia Beach
2009-10-15 10:45:56

Doesn’t the bank log the interest on the missed payments as profits? Seems like every missed payment is profit on the earnings sheets. That’s why they are letting people go on without paying, right?

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Comment by packman
2009-10-15 11:00:24

Dang good question! Anyone know? If so - that’s huge.

To paraphrase - if you miss payments on your mortgage, you still accrue interest (outside of the penalties). If you later then “catch up” on your loan, and eventually pay it off, you will have paid more $$ to the bank than you would if you had stayed current. I believe your point is that this “more $$” may be being booked by the banks up front as extra profit now - right?

If this is really true, then this could go far towards explaining the big recovery in bank profits recently. However what that does mean is that these are “false profits” - unless home prices have a truly miraculous rebound, with an even bigger bubble than before - these profits will turn to losses later, and we’ll probably have the crash-to-end-all-crashes.

I seem to recall warnings about false profits from the Bible or something.

 
Comment by polly
2009-10-15 11:59:23

It would depend on the bank accounting rules on accounts that aren’t current. Note, despite my occasional quip about accounting, I am not an accountant. However, in general, a business like a bank is going to be on an accrual accounting system. That means they book income when they have “earned” it (meaning done everything that they need to do to be able to claim that the money is owed to them), not when they receive it. Since not taking the principle back is about all they have to do to have “earned the money” I think they would book it that way. There may be special rules just for banks that say they shouldn’t book the income if the account has defaulted. No idea what the details might be.

Please remember, that if a bank is only servicing the loans, not actually holding it, its responsibilities for “earning” the servicing fees will be spelled out in its contract. Just letting the loan not pay and never doing anything might not be enough.

Perhaps Englishman in NJ can let us know what the servicers have to do to earn their fees under these agreements? Is just ignoring a default an OK result?

 
Comment by packman
2009-10-15 13:16:49

That sounds about right.

In a similar case - I worked for a telecom company back in the 2000 timeframe. One of our biggest customers was the startup WinStar. When they declared bankruptcy we took a huge profit hit, because we had declared several million $$ worth of their “ordered, delivered, but not paid for” equipment as revenue already. Their bankrupcty declaration forced us to then turn around and write those $$ off as losses.

Seems like the same case is true for the banks and/or MBS asset values. In essence any loans that have not yet actually gone through the foreclosure process are still considered performing for bottom line purposes, even if payments have stopped and probably even if a NOD has been served; though maybe the NOD is where the line is drawn.

I would hope that all of this is being taken into account regarding banks’ health - but maybe not. It’s all accounting black magic to me.

 
Comment by bluto
2009-10-15 14:39:09

Usually your auditor (or in the case of banks) regulator has limits on what must be considered non-accrual (typically this is 90 days late but I’m not sure if they’re still holding this) and what must be charged off or reserved against. All loans have reserves taken that can rise if there is eveidence that the loan won’t be repaid.

 
Comment by Spokaneman
2009-10-15 15:13:44

Once loans stop perfoming, typically 90 days past due, accounting rules require that you stop accruing interest. You cannot book income that you are not likely to receive.

And further, the banks are required to make loan loss provisions for the principle balance and any unpaid interest, based on the expected recoveries on the collateral underlying the loan. So, no the banks don’t record income on bad loans, they infact take big accounting and economic losses.

The reasons banks aren’t faster in foreclosure and eviction is that is a time consuming and people intensive process and the banks are just swamped. A bit like the freeway at 5:30 pm there is just not enough capacity to deal with the magnitude of the problem so the queue starts to build.

I live in a well established, mature middle class neighborhood and I have noticed just in the past month or so, about a half dozen apparently avacant homes that I suspect are in the forclosure process. They become a blight very quickly.

 
 
 
Comment by GrizzlyBear
2009-10-15 07:34:04

He already got his bailout. For most people, shelter is the largest monthly expense. He’s had the opportunity to live free for nearly two years. That’s a gift in the tens of thousands of dollars. What else could the greedhead ask for?

Comment by Eddie
2009-10-15 08:58:48

4 years. And he will get it.

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Comment by jetson_boy
2009-10-15 06:52:31

I love how this is somehow a “crisis”

 
Comment by oxide
2009-10-15 08:15:13

Unemployment is the main reason homeowners are falling into trouble.

How much is unemployment, and how much is resets? I’d love to see some statistics matching the selling price, the date of sale, the type of loan, amount of HELOC/refi if any, income and employment status.

I recall many many loans being I/O and neg-am. At one point I saw a graph where over 25% of the refi’s in California modified into a neg-am (i.e. morons). And every day those grace periods are running out. Those FB’s would default even if they kept their jobs.

Comment by packman
2009-10-15 09:42:53

How much is unemployment, and how much is resets?

I venture that neither of those two is the the largest factor. The largest factor in people falling into “trouble” is simply falling home prices. I don’t think anyone’s come out with stats, but I venture that a large portion - if not the largest portion - of defaults right now are strategic. That’s something that’s probably impossible to measure though, since I’m sure most people doing strategic defaults won’t claim them as such - they’ll claim hardship.

Comment by polly
2009-10-15 14:06:34

It could be home values even if it isn’t because of strategic defaults. People were doing refis to get money to pay off the credit cards and fund vacations, etc. If they kept spending money and going on vacation and can’t get any money out of the house, they are just out of money. It may be strategic to stop paying the mortgage and ask for a loan modification rather than stop paying the credit card and declare bankruptcy (which requires actual cash to pay the lawyer), but that isn’t quite the same thing as deciding to not pay because the house isn’t a good investment anymore.

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Comment by Eddie
2009-10-15 08:24:56

How many of these actually become bank owned properties? Lots of people getting lots of notifications and then spending months if not years in the house payment free.

Comment by mikey
2009-10-15 09:12:25

Long-time Waukesha real estate agent Kollmansberger files for bankruptcy
By Tom Daykin of the Journal Sentinel

Posted: Oct. 14, 2009

The long-time operator of a Waukesha-based realty agency and former president of the Wisconsin Realtors Association has filed for personal bankruptcy protection.

Richard Kollmansberger, and his wife, Banga, filed a Chapter 7 petition recently in U.S. Bankruptcy Court in Milwaukee. They listed assets totaling $2.37 million, and liabilities of $5.14 million.

http://tinyurl.com/yg67e4o

Comment by Olympiagal
2009-10-15 09:52:37

What a nice way to start the day, thanks.
After I stopped laughing at the ‘Banga’ name I read the article.

According to the bankruptcy filing, Kollmansberger owns Bethesda Real Estate Inc., which does business as First Realty GMAC and recently was placed under control of a court-appointed receiver. The receiver, Seth Dizard, is seeking a judge’s permission to sell some of Bethesda’s assets to help raise cash, according to Waukesha County Circuit Court records.

Maybe he can pry out and sell Banga’s silicone ‘assets’?
Banga? Banga?

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Comment by mikey
2009-10-15 10:56:23

Morning Oly,

Yeah,

Girls come with the some wonderful standard operating equipment but for some reason they seem to want to start messing with nature and knives when they get a few extra bucks to play with.

I’m a guy and I guarantee, if it’s for us, we’re just not worth it
:)

 
Comment by SanFranciscoBayAreaGal
2009-10-15 11:01:49

Dang girl, I couldn’t stop laughing also. Why do parents do that to their kids?

 
Comment by Bill in Carolina
2009-10-15 11:12:11

She’s not a playa, she’s a…

 
Comment by mikey
2009-10-15 12:09:41

I kinda figured a RE chick named Banga…would awaken the Dead in here.
;)

 
Comment by mikey
2009-10-15 12:30:32

The largest creditor listed is Wauwatosa-based Waterstone Bank, with unsecured claims totaling $1.8 million. Also, real estate agency franchisor GMAC Home Services LLC of Morristown, N.J., has an unsecured claim of $590,918

Oh…and I removed 6 figures from “Banga’s” Waterstone Bank earlier this year, closed my account and placed into a Five Star Bank.

mikey’s slow sometimes but not a complete fool with HIS money:)

 
Comment by Olympiagal
2009-10-15 16:56:18

Oh…and I removed 6 figures from “Banga’s” Waterstone Bank earlier this year, closed my account and placed into a Five Star Bank.
mikey’s slow sometimes but not a complete fool with HIS money:)

I bet you didn’t get a lollipop from Banga when you took away all your money, did you?

 
 
 
 
 
Comment by ylekiot
2009-10-15 05:44:36

Let me see if I can translate “Rick’s” VP speak. “The sheer scale of the problem is preventing the loan modification programs from having the kind of impact we’d all like.”

Translation : Things are so fubar’d that free money and writeoffs aren’t making any impact since the home-loaners are figuring out that walking is the only rational business decision.

There. That’s better.

Comment by Jim A.
2009-10-15 06:13:56

or “Gee it turns out that when you actually try to make sure that borrowers have a CHANCE of repaying the loan, not NEARLY as many people qualify.”

Comment by oxide
2009-10-15 08:19:22

Corollary: “Gee it turns out that when you actually try to make sure that borrowers have a CHANCE of repaying the loan, it takes a whole lot LONGER and in the meantime FB’s have time go broke, vote, walk, or pour unmentionable stuff into the toilets.”

Credit card companies learned long ago that once somebody comes to the counter, you take their money as quickly and pleasantly as possible. Don’t give them time to reconsider.

Comment by DinOR
2009-10-15 08:47:49

oxide,

No actually that’s been a rule of thumb in retail since before printed currency ( but I get your point ) :)

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Comment by dennisd
2009-10-15 06:26:56

Or, “I only want this house if you pay me to stay here, otherwise I’m walking and the vandals and squatters can have it”.

Comment by cereal
2009-10-15 08:39:51

If you discover that your neighbor has a government sponsored bailout, be sure to help yourself to the use of his kitchen and such.

You are after all a part owner

Comment by oxide
2009-10-15 11:36:19

I’m sure there’s some ExxonMobil somewhere in my 401K. Free gas! Cool!

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Comment by az_lender
2009-10-15 08:40:21

“I’m happy to stay in this house and ignore your idiotic notices, just don’t expect me to pay any actual money.”

Comment by dennisd
2009-10-15 08:50:34

“I’m happy to stay in this house and ignore your idiotic notices, just don’t expect me to pay any actual money.”

This is exactly what our neighbor’s are doing. They can afford the payments but once it was obvious they payed too much, they decided to save the mortgage payment and live in the house until the sheriff makes them move. They stopped paying the mortgage over a year ago and just recently received the first NOD. Meanwhile, they bought a nice new travel trailer and paid cash! I’m actually slightly envious.

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Comment by SilentGlider
2009-10-15 13:07:08

“This is exactly what our neighbor’s are doing. They can afford the payments but once it was obvious they payed too much, they decided to save the mortgage payment and live in the house until the sheriff makes them move. They stopped paying the mortgage over a year ago and just recently received the first NOD. Meanwhile, they bought a nice new travel trailer and paid cash! I’m actually slightly envious.”

Same thing with my neighbors. Husband and wife who are both employed attorneys who bought their house in 1999 when I bought mine. They moved out a few months ago with no evidence that they were attempting to sell or rent the house. When doing a search on Trulia a few days ago their house showed up as a pending foreclosure with a notice of default filed in July. I was also able to determine that they refinanced the house for more than twice what they paid so it looks like they walked away with about 300K cash. It also looks like they hadn’t made a mortage payment since the beginning of the year.

Examples like this seem to indicate that unemployment is probably only a small part of the problem.

 
 
 
 
 
Comment by wmbz
2009-10-15 05:48:52

Now here’s a new innovative plan…Maybe granny can upgrade from Friskies to Fancy Feast this winter.

Obama calls for $250 payments to seniors.
Oct 14 - 09

WASHINGTON (AP) - President Barack Obama called on Congress Wednesday to approve $250 payments to more than 50 million seniors to make up for no increase in Social Security next year. The Social Security Administration is scheduled to announce Thursday that there will be no cost of living increase next year. By law, increases are pegged to inflation, which has been negative this year.

It would mark the first year without an increase in Social Security payments since automatic adjustments were adopted in 1975.

“Even as we seek to bring about recovery, we must act on behalf of those hardest hit by this recession,” Obama said in a statement. “This additional assistance will be especially important in the coming months, as countless seniors and others have seen their retirement accounts and home values decline as a result of this economic crisis.”

Obama’s proposal is similar to several bills in Congress. The $250 payments would also go to those receiving veterans benefits, disability benefits, railroad retirees and retired public employees who don’t receive Social Security. Recipients would be limited to one payment, even if they qualified for more.

Comment by Bad Chile
2009-10-15 05:59:44

How, how happy I am that my taxes are helping to buy grandma’s vote.

Comment by arizonadude
2009-10-15 06:26:10

That might buy a few boxes of depends.they are using more as they look at their retirement funds wiped out by wall street.

Comment by X-philly
2009-10-15 06:28:02

$250 spread over a year, probably good for a few bong hits.

Also could help them deal with the pain.

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Comment by X-GSfixer
2009-10-15 15:05:01

Which is the biggest argument against legalizing marijuana.

Next thing you know, Cargill and ADM will be getting huge government ag subsidies, and they’ll start handing out bales of marijuana, along with the government cheese. :)

 
 
Comment by michael
2009-10-15 07:51:04

what retirement funds?

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Comment by Skip
2009-10-15 08:22:09

I think he meant pensions. :-)

 
 
 
Comment by michael
2009-10-15 06:27:57

so no COLA increase means there is some “mechanism” in place to control social security spending….but when that “mechanism” computes a zero increase….politicians just pass a different law passing out the “obamamoney” anyway.

beautiful.

Comment by Blue Skye
2009-10-15 07:15:50

Unfortunately, this man is lost.

He did kind of look smart at first, because he could read and enunciate, unlike his predecessor.

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Comment by michael
2009-10-15 07:57:24

i loved the scene in the movie “district 9″ when the main character Wikus Van De Merwe is standing there inside the alien robot and you see him come to the realization that the events surrounding him are much bigger than him and his beautiful wife and decides to do the right thing.

i am hoping/praying for the day obama has his “distrcit 9 moment”.

right now though…obama is at the same point Wikus was when he smashed the alien in the back of the head and hijacked their spaceship to try and achieve his on selfish goals.

time will tell.

 
Comment by Skip
2009-10-15 08:26:54

No spoilers pls Michael.

 
Comment by michael
2009-10-15 08:28:43

oops…sorry.

 
Comment by Olympiagal
2009-10-15 11:23:22

Yeah, that’s binks job. Right, bink? ;)

 
Comment by michael
2009-10-15 11:32:39

i really do apolgize…i remember when someone on this blog revealed something about series finale of BSG…it kinda sucked (i still haven’t seen it yet so please no ellaboration).

 
Comment by Olympiagal
2009-10-15 13:02:14

i remember when someone on this blog revealed something about series finale of BSG…

That would be bink. Hence my post. :)
But he was sad, so we all forgave him. Besides, he likes frogs, a huge mark in his favor.

SPOILER ALERT:
It turns out that Wikus, shortly after he bashes the aliens head, notices that he’s all itchy on his bu*m. He’s developed piles. He has to drive the alien spaceship over to his mom’s house so she can make him a nice soothing ice-pack and he can sit gingerly upon her Barkalounger and watch Oprah and b*tch all day long until he recovers and can go back to fulfilling his selfish plans.

You heard it here first, people.

 
 
Comment by DD
2009-10-15 09:50:21

Considering that the rate increase for seniors on ss - at least for my mom- was less than $300 for the entire yr, $250 is better than a kick in the pants for many who only have that $900. mo to live on. With all the arrogance from a few here regarding this subj and others, many women over 70 who stayed home, raised kids, either H died w/o pension, or there was a Divorce, many women over 70++ only worked at jobs where SS was taken out during their few and underpaid yrs at work outside of home. So, consider this when railing against ALL the Ss takers. Why not consider those who made a bundle, live off all their income/investments and Still demand “their” chunk of SS. Should there not be a standard for being eligible for SS income? I think so.
SS wasn’t put into place for the wealthy in the beginning.But as a backstop for those who had nothing.
But the greatest generation, quite a few (ret.gov jobs. days of good incomes etc) are living with ALL the marbles.

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Comment by Arizona Slim
2009-10-15 10:44:16

It’s almost time for my mother (a retired public school teacher) to announce that her pension and social security went up, but her health insurance went up even more. Mom’s been making this annual announcement for quite a few years.

 
Comment by ecofeco
2009-10-15 12:01:04

+1 DD.

Some of you should try living on SS.

 
Comment by dude
2009-10-15 13:09:08

Social security wasn’t meant to be “lived on” it was meant as a safety net and supplement.

 
 
 
Comment by Jim A.
2009-10-15 10:20:05

How, how happy I am that my taxes are helping to buy grandma’s vote. Unfortunately, the politicians will discover that $250 doesn’t buy much these days, not even grandma’s vote.

Comment by DD
2009-10-15 10:22:58

not even grandma’s vote.

since alot of grammas are still republican. Just a local observation at the Country clubs.

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Comment by crash1
2009-10-15 11:52:06

Most people would sell out for a lot less than 250.

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Comment by James
2009-10-15 06:35:02

Frankly, between my moms, assets, stock portfolio, bonds, deferred compensation, pension and paid off house… could we direct this money to someone else who needs it.

Not sure if she is even bothering to collect SS.

Comment by alpha-sloth
2009-10-15 07:54:28

Send it to the teenagers. None of this is their fault, and they’ll be the ones paying for it. Plus, they’ll spend it immediately, unlike grandma who will buy a 1% CD at a zombie bank with it.

Comment by scdave
2009-10-15 08:09:16

Excellent idea Alpha…

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Comment by aNYCdj
2009-10-15 08:31:31

My parents gave us $2000 each for a few years to put in our IRAs….we didn’t have a choice to spend it.

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Comment by james
2009-10-15 09:43:00

Strangely mom has all this free time, a high speed connection and has done some pretty savy investing.

So, it’s mostly me monitoring her porfolio and going “wow, that was a pretty good move”.

Well, your boy is out buying up some votes.

Hopefully the old people f*&% him by paying down debt with the $.

I’m at this DEBT is the PROBLEM point.

I’m just trying to convince people to STOP SPENDING. If there are any discussions about politics and plans; make up say and we will pay for this how?

For everything we need to walk up to the stores and say: Do I really NEED this? Ask yourself why at least three times.

Then, if it’s really a need, pay in cash. Again, we can undercut the banks in short order if we do this.

Apparently neither political party, just like in Japan, can handle the banks or what to do. So, we have to do this ourselves. And it’s not that hard.

Just stop spending.

Figure we give them about five years of thrift and it’s all over.

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Comment by DD
2009-10-15 09:59:56

Apparently neither political party, just like in Japan, can handle the banks or what to do. So, we have to do this ourselves. And it’s not that hard.

Just stop spending.

Another good idea.

 
 
 
Comment by DD
2009-10-15 09:56:15

if she is even bothering to collect SS.

Too many wealthy seniors I see and speak to or listen to, wealthy ones demand “their ” ss. Living real high on the hog.
SS was put into place as a backstop, not for the wealthy citizens. However, nothing in writing was put into place to prevent wealthy citizens from adding to their pile. If you watch closely in the early am at grocery stores, you will see very poor seniors buying the cat food, day/2day old food etc. But guess you have to live in an area where there are lots of seniors. Or look beyond your cart.

Comment by Chris M
2009-10-15 12:36:13

Cat food is frickin’ expensive! I don’t know where this idea came from…

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Comment by DD
2009-10-15 22:41:55

I don’t either, but when it goes on sale, it disappears. Either they have lots of cats or they are living on Fancy Feast.

 
 
 
Comment by REhobbyist
2009-10-15 14:38:36

Don’t worry James, your mom is getting SS. It’s an incredibly efficient system. Seniors love their SS. Obama is not popular with seniors, so this is his way of currying favor with them. Probably won’t work.

 
 
Comment by Mr. Drysdale
2009-10-15 07:18:39

Wonder if the rest of us who’ve had our wages frozen this year are eligible for some gubmit cheese also . . .

 
Comment by Prime_Is_Contained
2009-10-15 07:42:45

The thing that bothers me about this is that they are proposing giving one-time payments of free money to the only class of people whose income is NOT at risk during this depression.

Since SS can never do a negative COLA (statutory limitations prevent this), a deflationary period is actually already great for seniors, since the buying-power of their fixed-income payments rises.

How about some extra payments for those who can’t find work instead?

Comment by Bill in Carolina
2009-10-15 07:59:05

“How about some extra payments for those who can’t find work instead?”

As a SS recipient, I agree.

BTW, how do you make a superscript TM in a post?

Comment by DinOR
2009-10-15 08:26:00

Interesting points all! Our nephew ( 20 y.o ) has moved in w/ us after my brother passed away and I DAMN sure know he could use the money! It’s not like they won’t be paying it back 20 times over?

Quick question though, my wife and I have long contemplated retiring overseas and with all that’s taken place, do any of you see a point where they will simply say, “Oh, you’re an ex-patriot..? Good luck, we no longer send SS checks to recipients abroad. If you want to resume receiving your benefits, move back to the U.S!”

And/or receive an adjusted ( read reduced ) benefit level?

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Comment by Eddie
2009-10-15 09:03:56

Does SS still send out actual checks? Given it’s the government I suppose they would. But I have to assume there is an option to get paid electronically. In that case, state your address is a rented PO Box for $49 a year and live wherever you want while getting your checks deposited directly.

 
Comment by awaiting wipeout
2009-10-15 09:26:20

DinOR-
Maybe the SS FAQ’s would cover that one. I am assuming, until they put capital controls on the USD (which I am concerned about) I would say you’d get your $. Didn’t W make it ok to be an illegal, receive SS $, even if you move back to Mexico?

Question for you. Can you still take SS early (at 62) and pay it back at 65 in full, to start taking the higher amount? Did they change that loophole yet?

I saved the article that talked about it in my SS file, to be followed up later.

 
Comment by DD
2009-10-15 10:03:04

Awaiting, send article to me in email! HI!

 
Comment by awaiting wipeout
2009-10-15 10:45:08

DD
It was an article in a low level, general population monthly money rag. I think it might have been Kiplinger’s. I don’t have your email, btw.

 
Comment by DD
2009-10-15 10:48:57

It was an article in a low level, general population monthly money rag. I think it might have been Kiplinger’s. I don’t have your email, btw.ellisisland123ATyahooey.

 
Comment by X-philly
2009-10-15 10:51:03

Does SS still send out actual checks? Given it’s the government I suppose they would. But I have to assume there is an option to get paid electronically. In that case, state your address is a rented PO Box for $49 a year and live wherever you want while getting your checks deposited directly.

1.SS does issue live checks if that is recipient’s preference, and there is also the option for direct deposit.

2. They’ll take a PO Box as address for live checks, but there still has to be a street address associated with the beneficiary.

3. Beneficiary is required to report to SS any changes in address, especially if leaving the country. (This last item is a requirement for SSI, I don’t know if it applies to retirees drawing on their account.)

 
Comment by dude
2009-10-15 13:15:44

“Question for you. Can you still take SS early (at 62) and pay it back at 65 in full, to start taking the higher amount? Did they change that loophole yet?”

Search on “Withdrawal of Application” on SSA dot gov.

 
 
Comment by scdave
2009-10-15 09:40:13

It my understanding that they do send it overseas…Come to America, work your minimum number of quarters, move back home where it is cheap and wait until you turn 62…

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Comment by DinOR
2009-10-15 10:34:19

scdave,

That’s a bit of what I was getting at. I’ve lived most of my life ( with one foot in the Philippines ) and I’ve often heard of tales where the old G.I finally kicks the bucket, but the widow ‘neglects’ to mention that?

In one urban myth, the recipient would have had to have been 136 years old! As other posters have noted, it would be easy enough to set up a P.O box or use a relatives’ address, but that’s not me. Unlike our REIC’ster friends, I’d prefer not have my name associated w/ something under the table. ( And I’m no ALTAR BOY! )

Still, I can see a day where we’re so desperate for revenue they’ll say, “Oh, you can move overseas for as long as you’d like! When you move BACK to the States, your money will be here waiting for you!”

 
Comment by DD
2009-10-15 22:43:08

And I’m no ALTAR BOY! )

amen.

he he he he

 
 
 
Comment by Bad Chile
2009-10-15 08:30:10

The thing that bothers me about this is that they are proposing giving one-time payments of free money to the only class of people whose income is NOT at risk during this depression. Since SS can never do a negative COLA (statutory limitations prevent this), a deflationary period is actually already great for seniors, since the buying-power of their fixed-income payments rises.

Said in two distinct sentences what every other politician, journalist, drunk in a bar talking politics, and me - could never do in a thousand words. Well done. I’m going to copy and paste that (with your permission) on every stinking news site discussing this fraud. May I?

Comment by edgewaterjohn
2009-10-15 08:55:18

Gimmes to seniors is a proven cornerstone of Chicago-style politics.

That’s why Blago gave seniors free transit last year before his ouster and why property taxes here have at least two separate circuit breaker provisions for seniors. There’s many other programs too - it’s part and parcel of every local election. Candidates must absolutely court the senior vote.

Now, is this also the case around the rest of the U.S.? Because if not, it’s rather embarassing to watch the national government behaving like some machine hack from the northwest or southwest side of Chicago.

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Comment by DinOR
2009-10-15 10:37:36

edge,

As both a native Chicagoan ( and a Rep. to boot ) I didn’t want to be the one to have to say that? It’s like he’s just not ready or totally unable to graduate to a National scene or mindset.

If ‘this’ isn’t embarrassing, I don’t know what ‘is’?

 
Comment by X-philly
2009-10-15 10:53:01

That’s why Blago gave seniors free transit last year before his ouster and why property taxes here have at least two separate circuit breaker provisions for seniors.

Do you look old for your age?

 
Comment by DD
2009-10-15 10:55:29

for seniors.

Do you look old for your age?

thanks for the giggle!

 
Comment by edgewaterjohn
2009-10-15 11:16:39

This is what happens when your parents have you at an old(er) age. You get to grow up surrounded by old folks and become privy to every single issue they obsess about.

Coupons, prescriptions, taxes, CD rates, service fees…YUCK!

 
Comment by DD
2009-10-15 11:56:57

Nope, just raised in towns that were really focused on retirees. So not being raised in big cities where the massive populations would detract from one particular group, just all lumped in together, you might have missed this observation. I understand that as I have lived in both major metropolissss and small towns. And living in the resort towns you see alot, and I mean alot of senior retirees. Big emphasis on what to do when you retire around here. I see wealthy and I see very poor seniors.

Mom was young. They live longer these days, or haven’t you noticed? !!! Get ready cause ready or not.. the 90yr olds are around and lots of em.

 
Comment by X-GSfixer
2009-10-15 15:20:27

“Coupons, prescriptions………YUCK!”

You forgot:

-The morning meetings at McDonalds of the “Rusty Zipper Club”

-Sunday breakfast at Denny’s, and the trouble of finding your Crown Vic in a sea of Crown Vics in the parking lot afterwards.

-Endless testimonials to Lima Beans.

-The “I can remember when that wasn’t there” flashbacks.

 
 
Comment by Prime_Is_Contained
2009-10-15 09:58:49

“I’m going to copy and paste that (with your permission) on every stinking news site discussing this fraud. May I?”

I would be honored. Go forth and paste to your heart’s content. :-)

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Comment by oxide
2009-10-15 08:43:02

Uh hello, the unemployed are getting extended unemployment benefits all over the place. I guess it’s granny’s turn now.

Meanwhile, Wall Street is crying for their bonuses because they bring “value” and “make money” for the banks. I call BS, if they were really making money — you know, providing goods and services — then why did they need to be bailed out?

Oh that’s right, they didn’t provide and goods or services. They made fake money.

Comment by DinOR
2009-10-15 09:01:26

oxide,

Correct. Just like Robert Rubin as board member at Citi. He made millions in bonuses and compensation ALL based of faked “profits”. Course he got while the gettin’ was good. Haven’t seen his name in the news in a coon’s age.

Still, in Oregon we have people that will potentially get up to 92 weeks of unemployment! When does a “safety net” become a “safety couch”? They just keep getting extensions from Federal money.

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Comment by X-philly
2009-10-15 09:03:05

SS recipients received a $250 check when the first stimulus passed.

old boss/new boss

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Comment by measton
2009-10-15 09:03:43

The elite get a bail out because they control government

The poor and unemployed get a reprieve because the elite don’t want them to riot before the middle and upper middle class have been relieved of all savings and wealth.

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Comment by DD
2009-10-15 10:05:53

“safety net” = hammock.

..because the elite don’t want them to riot before the middle and upper middle class have been relieved of all savings and wealth.

 
 
Comment by Eddie
2009-10-15 09:06:57

Providing the mechanism by which trillions of dollars are allocated around the world isn’t a service?

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Comment by Al
2009-10-15 09:25:52

Rephrase

Providing the mechanism by which trillions of dollars are misallocated, market distortions are created by massive speculation and skimming off billions isn’t a service?

 
Comment by DD
2009-10-15 10:07:10

Providing the mechanism by which trillions of dollars are misallocated, market distortions are created by massive speculation and skimming off billions isn’t a service?

Al, Accurately written.

 
Comment by Eddie
2009-10-15 10:14:47

So only jobs where people make stuff in a factory somewhere constitiutes a real job. OK fine.

Where do you think the money comes to build the factory where your precious “workers” make the things? And your worker bees have a car/truck to get to work right? Where does the money to finance the car/truck come from (and yes I know you probably buy your car with cash, 90% of the public doesn’t)? Where do you think the money comes from to build the supply chain that distributes the things made by your precious workers…the warehouses, the distribution centers, the planes, trains and trucks that transport all the goods made by your “real workers” and the retail centers that sell those goods to the public? And what about the money needed to build the power plants, coal plants, gas refineries that supply the energy for the whole system to function?

All that money just falls from the sky right?

Without capital markets which you love to hate, there would be nothing.

 
Comment by Al
2009-10-15 10:35:17

I don’t hate capital markets. When capital markets provide funding to grow businesses and do all the things you mention, they’re great. Capital markets/banking, etc. are meant to serve industry. But that’s not what we have now. Look more closely at what’s really going on and less so at the text book answer.

 
Comment by packman
2009-10-15 10:37:30

FWIW - all of these funds could come from profits and/or funds provided by the company founders/employees, and not from capital markets, could they not?

Realistically I know that’s not really feasible, and would be a hindrance to efficient capitalism, but nevertheless it is possible in principle. Our society could function with zero borrowing and zero banking.

 
Comment by Al
2009-10-15 11:14:40

Looks like my post got eaten, though will probably show up shortly after I hit send on this one,

Anyways, I don’t hate capital markets when they do all the things you pointed out Eddie. They should function to serve industry. That’s not what they’re doing now. You have a good grasp of the text book answer of why capital markets exist, but not of the current reality.

 
Comment by DinOR
2009-10-15 11:23:45

packman,

Great point. My father/godfather ran their business ( Hillgrove Fabricators in Western Springs, IL ) like that for years! So did nearly all of the old Germans and Beau-hocks I worked for in HS.

The difference was, they HAD the capital to acquire RE, make expansions etc. and would ‘work’ the bank for the best possible terms! ‘Now’ ( since we know just having a-c-c-e-s-s to capital is a slam dunk money machine ) just look at the builders, it’s all about how you “play the leverage” ( not how you run your business )

 
Comment by oxide
2009-10-15 11:48:21

Nice try Eddie. Banks allocated trillions of dollars around the world JUST FINE before this bubble blew up. I guess they earned their bonuses back in 1979 or so.

But since the bubble… I’ll use my example from a few days ago. J6P buys a house for 10x his income. Mortgage broker underwrites the mortgage at 20x their reserves (leverage). Megabank buys the mortgage at 30x their reserves (more leverage). AIG insures the mortgage at 20x reserves (leverage again.)

So, for every ONE dollar that J6P earns at an honest living, those bankers created $120,000 dollars of possible money, and took their bonuses from that fake $120,000. You call that a “service?” J6P can get better service in any red light district.

 
Comment by DD
2009-10-15 12:00:36

before this bubble blew up

Thank you Ox. Days gone by, before wally world etc, monopolies, local business ran on their profits, and what it did for around the community, local banks and all.

 
Comment by Eddie
2009-10-15 12:37:22

Oxide,

Your example has been happening well before the bubble. Local bank takes in $1000 as deposit pays 3% interest. Keep $50 as reserves, lends out $9500 at 8%. Rinse repeat. Only thing that happened during the bubble was the scale of it all.

And in 1979 capital was allocated inefficiently. Take a very simple example. Retail investors. To buy or sell stocks cost 1000% more than it does today adjusted for inflation. The fact I can buy and sell stocks for $7 today online in 10 seconds is a vast improvement over having to call a broker, place and order and hope it gets executed sometime that day.

Technology certainly has a lot to do with that. But so does the fact that capital markets today are so mcuh more open. I can trade on any exchange in the world today. I can trade in pretty much any currency. I can buy and sell options on pretty much anything I want. Stocks, metals, indexes. I can trade the weather if I want. And millions of people doing just that is part of the efficient allocation of capital that was unheard of 20 years ago.

I can’t remember the last time I was in an actual bank. Everyt financial transaction I make is elecronic. Would you prefer we go back to 1979 where I had to physically stand in line and cash a check? How fun! Or better yet go back to the mid 1970s where the NYSE had to close on Wednesdays to catch up on the paperwork created on Monday and Tuesday. Boy oh boy, imagine the effificeny then.

Oh and I hear movies used to cost a nickel back in the good old days too.

 
Comment by oxide
2009-10-15 13:07:46

Again, nice try. It wasn’t just the “scale.” They took something solid, and made it much bigger with the same amount of substance. They only way is to blow air in the middle. Why do you think they call it a BUBBLE, Einstein?

$50 as reserves, lends out $9500 at 8%.

You mean, the bank lent out $9500 at 8% to people who were able to pay it back. And the bank looked at EVERYTHING to make damn sure you could pay that $9500 back, before they let go of it. And there was usually collateral. And if it the loan were a house at $95000, the bank demanded 20% down too. The good old days.

What happens now?

The mortgage broker didn’t bother to look at J6P’s income. Nor did the mortgage broker bother with making sure the collateral matched up with the loan — ask the honest appraisers on HBB. Demand 20% down? HAHAHAHAHA oh my aching kidneys, we all know what happened to that. Mort broker didn’t care; he was too busy collecting his juicy fee.

When Megabank bought the loan, they didn’t bother to look at J6P either, because some high-school dropout at corrupt Moody’s had stamped “AAA” on it without looking. Moody’s didn’t care; didn’t they have some physicists in white coats telling them it was okay? Megabank didn’t care either; he was spending his bonus at Tiffany’s on the way home from work. Ditto for AIG. They probably figured on a bailout from the beginning.

Greed broke one link, then another, and another, all the way up the entire rotting food chain.

And the technology is BS too. Does it matter how fast, or how fancy, or which currency or how cheap your trade fee is? As a rule, garbage in, garbage out has stood for time memorial. They used every single technological device, except for the simple BS detector.

What do I need with a Cray? My BS detector went off 5 years ago just from looking at those smiling couples in the newspaper ads, humping at the happenin’ club and painting the walls of their condo HGTV Brown.

 
Comment by oxide
2009-10-15 13:18:06

And to answer more on the technology: maybe that’s what we humans really need: LESS technology. Is it so bad to have to stand in line to cash a check? And back in the day, when your wages resulted in a physical pile of bills, you thought very carefully before handing those bills over, because you were literally watching your money leave you. Nowadays, it’s a number in a checkbook, or a number on Quicken. Much easier to spend it then.

As I said above, retail and credit cards take your money without giving you time to reconsider. I suspect that several recessions were prevented by the LACK of technology — captains of industry were forced to stand in line, or wait for the snail mail or the page boy on the floor of the NYSE. In the end, they had time to reconsider, or they didn’t have the time or energy to do something stupid.

Stupid transactions will always outpace smart ones, and a faster pace overall means more stupid transactions overall, not to mention that stupid transacations are for more dollars than smart transactions: e.g. compare the idiot strawberry picker paying $750K, to the shrewed HBBer waiting for $380K.

 
 
Comment by GrizzlyBear
2009-10-15 09:08:53

What about all of the people who are unemployed and have no benefits? The TRULY needy. Oh yeah, let them rot in the gutter…

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Comment by Eddie
2009-10-15 09:24:24

They don’t rot. Quite the contrary. They get
- welfare payments
- medicaid
- food stamps
- WIC
- Section 8 housing
- subsidized utilities

Yeah they’re suffering and need some help ASAP.

 
Comment by GrizzlyBear
2009-10-15 09:35:21

It was above your head, Eddie.

 
Comment by In Montana
2009-10-15 09:49:29

Well, yeah, but there’s the stigma! lol

 
Comment by In Colorado
2009-10-15 10:08:05

Yeah, that’s why there are so many homeless people. The gov’t just hands out money to everyone.

 
Comment by DD
2009-10-15 10:17:03

The homeless don’t get anything due to no address.

They can try to get into shelters, but do not get any of the above ‘gimmees’.

 
Comment by Eddie
2009-10-15 10:25:13

The homeless choose to be so. If they took time to apply for the govt benefits. ON GA’s state website there is even a neat little questonaire. Answer a few simple questions and you’ll know to the dollar how much free money you’re eligible for. It couldn’t be any easier.

 
Comment by DD
2009-10-15 10:29:28

GA and the southeast get the majority of the tax welfare pie from all taxpayers in the US. Thanks for confirming that tidbit.
Confirms that the rest of us are paying for you and your states welfare.

 
Comment by GrizzlyBear
2009-10-15 10:41:32

“The homeless choose to be so. If they took time to apply for the govt benefits. ON GA’s state website there is even a neat little questonaire.”

I’m going to steal Polly’s line. Are you on drugs, Eddie? Most homeless have severe mental problems. They didn’t choose their position, they are afflicted. The idea that they are web savvy, much less have handy computer access, is hysterical.

 
Comment by X-philly
2009-10-15 10:59:39

The homeless choose to be so. If they took time to apply for the govt benefits. ON GA’s state website there is even a neat little questonaire. Answer a few simple questions and you’ll know to the dollar how much free money you’re eligible for. It couldn’t be any easier.

Maybe someday you’ll be in a position to need welfare and you can report back to us how terribly easy the process was.

How do you know for a fact that the homeless choose to be so? Does that include the mentally ill who are out on the street due to so many institutions closing? And of course, when they’re non-medicated they’re especially able to make appropriate decisions about their living arrangements.

Somebody asked you yesterday if you were on drugs. I don’t think you’re a druggie, but I’m getting the idea you’re not even out of college yet.

 
Comment by DinOR
2009-10-15 11:18:27

No actually that started in SF.

 
Comment by DD
2009-10-15 12:01:58

No actually that started in SF.

Can you spell reagan? 1970s?
And still the stats prove out my above post.

 
Comment by Prime_Is_Contained
2009-10-15 16:36:41

“Most homeless have severe mental problems. They didn’t choose their position, they are afflicted. The idea that they are web savvy, much less have handy computer access, is hysterical.”

Well said, Grizzly…

 
Comment by neuromance
2009-10-15 18:21:12

Eddie wrote:

The homeless choose to be so. If they took time to apply for the govt benefits. ON GA’s state website there is even a neat little questonaire. Answer a few simple questions and you’ll know to the dollar how much free money you’re eligible for. It couldn’t be any easier.

The homeless checking out GA’s website and filling out a questionnaire? The thought that they have a) access to a computer, and b) are web savvy, is indeed hysterical. Eddie seems like a sharp enough fellow, but to state the above suggests that Eddie is either in a heavily insulated Ivory Tower, or a troll.

 
 
 
Comment by DD
2009-10-15 10:01:18

deflationary period is actually already great for seniors, since the buying-power of their fixed-income payments rises.

BS.

Not the poor ones.

Comment by Prime_Is_Contained
2009-10-15 10:27:00

“Not the poor ones.”

You totally missed the point, or chose to ignore it.

Whatever their income level is (and I’m not saying all of them are well-off), the fact that their income is fixed while costs are deflating means that they are gaining buying power during this deflationary period.

Who else can you point to who is gaining buying power during this period? Anyone other than banksters?

I’m not saying the SS-crowd couldn’t use the money; sure, those that are poor clearly could. I’m just saying that giving money to the only group that already has a very dependable monthly check and improving buying power strikes me as strange policy.

Helping those without dependable income, or those with declining buying power would strike me as more sensible policy. But I guess I already know that politics has nothing to do with being sensible…

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Comment by DD
2009-10-15 10:31:21

I’m not saying the SS-crowd couldn’t use the money; sure, those that are poor clearly could. I’m just saying that giving money to the only group that already has a very dependable monthly check and improving buying power strikes me as strange policy.

Helping those without dependable income, or those with declining buying power would strike me as more sensible policy.

The ones I see are shopping the dollar store and very frugally at that, so I dont’ see their buying power improving. Come out here and lets look together!

 
Comment by Bad Chile
2009-10-15 11:12:43

You don’t get wealthy spending all your money.

 
Comment by DinOR
2009-10-15 11:26:49

Prime,

FWIW ( “I” get it )

Besides, what’s wrong w/ shopping at the Dollar Store? My wife and I do it all the time! Especially for toothpaste, liquid shop, cleanser etc. Have you seen their earnings?

 
Comment by oxide
2009-10-15 11:51:46

DD, their buyer power IS increasing. Sure, it sucks that they have to buy tuna at the dollar store, but with a $10 bill they now they can buy 13 cans of tuna instead of 11.

I agree it still sucks.

 
Comment by DD
2009-10-15 12:03:21

but with a $10 bill they now they can buy 13 cans of tuna instead of 11.

Nope. they can still only buy 1 can per $1.oo.
Just did it myself the other day.
1 for 1.

Nothing more.

 
Comment by robin
2009-10-15 21:09:39

59 cents when on ad as a loss leader at thyemajor chains. Stock up when the time is right!

We do.

 
Comment by DD
2009-10-15 22:48:20

Did that at Vons on Tuesday.
$1.00 per can.
With your coupon and membership.

 
Comment by DD
2009-10-15 22:50:38

FWIW ( “I” get it )

Besides, what’s wrong w/ shopping at the Dollar Store?

Dinor, did anyone say anything at all was wrong with shopping at the dollar stores, huh, did anyone, ? Nope, didn’t say it, didn’t infer it. And “I” get it, but we were talking about poor SS seniors, not the other ones.
Obtuse-ness

 
Comment by ecofeco
2009-10-15 23:43:36

What deflation?

RE? Yeah that helps the poor a whole lot. :lol:

Everything else, especially necessities? I ain’t seen it.

I live in the 4th largest city in the nation and let me tell you, there is NO DEFLATION here outside of RE and even that’s meaningless as it’s nowhere near the price levels it was 5 years ago.

Wait, I take that back, I’m seeing plenty of WAGE deflation.

 
 
 
 
Comment by az_lender
2009-10-15 09:07:55

Sleight of hand:

(1) Cut $400 billion from Medicare over the period 2010-2019.

(2) Spend $13 billion in 2010 to give SS recipients a $250 gift, and gradually raise this to $16B in 2019 (demographic trend).

Presto! You just “saved” about $250 billion, while keeping seniors happy. (If anybody believes in (1), which is supposed to “pay for” the uninsured.)

Both these programs (SS & Medicare) were Ponzi schemes from the get-go.

An essential problem w/ the present financial system is the absolutely unpredictable nature of govt expenditures and handouts. I don’t deny that there are many SS recipients who don’t need even their previously-promised payment, but a really good feature of the 1983 SS-age fix was that it gave people a long time to incorporate change in their plans.

 
Comment by dude
2009-10-15 12:26:36

I apologize if this point is a repeat:

50 million current recipients of SS, in a nation of 300 million men women and children, and the baby boomer demo hasn’t even really gotten rolling?

This is not going to end well.

 
 
Comment by wmbz
2009-10-15 05:52:25

Results not pretty for Citi
Citi reports per-share loss on credit woes

BOSTON (MarketWatch) — Citigroup Inc. Thursday reported third-quarter net income of $101 million, and a 27-cent loss per share, on revenue of $20.39 billion. In the year-ago quarter, Citi posted a loss of 61 cents a share on total revenue of $16.26 billion. The company said the latest quarter’s results included $8 billion in net credit losses and an $802 million net loan loss reserve build. “While consumer credit trends are improving in international markets, the U.S. consumer credit environment remains challenging,” said Vikram Pandit, Citi’s chief executive.

Comment by arizonadude
2009-10-15 06:24:21

I guess goldman had another blowout qtr on the back of the taxpayers.I guess they are handing out record bonuses too.I woudnt touch that stock with a ten foot pole right now.Not to long ago it was at 40 now at 190?All of a sudden the world looks rosy again.What about all those bogus cdo’s they created?Do you guys remember when the crooks on wall street were tanking the market when congress didnt pass the 700 billion bailout?They eventually got their money through a behind closed door deal.Ruin the economy and then be rewarded with free money from the govt.Must be nice to have friends in congress.

Comment by aNYCdj
2009-10-15 06:37:28

Not to mention…didn’t they get like $12 billion from the AIG bailout…..paid 100% on their screwups….

nice work if you can get it

 
Comment by jetson_boy
2009-10-15 06:54:03

I read that there will be a new law that limits exec compensation by the end of this year. Bring it baby.

Comment by yensoy
2009-10-15 08:12:03

Execs aren’t the only people making obscene amounts of money.

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Comment by DinOR
2009-10-15 09:03:49

yensoy,

Not sure what you’re driving at there but I’ll gather you mean all the 20-something HS drop-outs that made $300k a year as mortgage brokers?

 
Comment by Eddie
2009-10-15 09:12:05

“The firm yesterday reported second-quarter profits of $3.4 billion, and if it continues with the same success rate as the first half of 2009, employees would share a record bonus pool come year-end.

If the estimations materialize, Fortune points out, “The average Goldman worker could end up taking home more than 10 times the typical American family’s income.” The average employee would finish the year with approximately $773,000, more than doubling the $363,000 they took home in 2008 and trumping the $662,000 they made in 2007. Even if Goldman doesn’t end up with a record-setting year, the pay scale is seen as a bit of a shock in light of the current economy”

In other words, as was stated above, not only execs make a lot money at GS. And I serioulsy doubt anyone at GS is a high school dropout.

 
Comment by Jim A.
2009-10-15 10:24:35

I’d guess that the medians (GS vs rest of us) aren’t as far apart as the averages.

 
Comment by VaBeyatch in Virginia Beach
2009-10-15 11:41:15

Hmmm how to convince the middle and lower class of American people to revolt against wall street.

 
Comment by oxide
2009-10-15 11:58:16

And people complain about TT Timmy. Hanky Panky was 10 times worse.

 
Comment by yensoy
2009-10-15 16:44:18

Dino: A lot of traders were raking in big bucks and continue to do so. They made risky bets, got compensated on the upside and we hold the bag on the downside. These folks aren’t execs so the salary caps won’t apply to them.

 
 
 
Comment by neuromance
2009-10-15 18:23:08

Do you guys remember when the crooks on wall street were tanking the market when congress didnt pass the 700 billion bailout?They eventually got their money through a behind closed door deal.Ruin the economy and then be rewarded with free money from the govt.Must be nice to have friends in congress.

At first, I read “ruin” as “Rubin”. As in Robert :)

 
 
Comment by DD
2009-10-15 10:09:16

not pretty for Citi

waaaaah.

 
 
Comment by WT Economist
2009-10-15 05:58:10

Expecations create their own reality.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&sid=a_A5nqmw9Dq8

“The dollar may drop to 50 yen next year and eventually lose its role as the global reserve currency, Sumitomo Mitsui Banking Corp.’s chief strategist said, citing trading patterns and a likely double dip in the U.S. economy.”

“The U.S. economy will deteriorate into 2011 as the effects of excess consumption and the financial bubble linger,” said Daisuke Uno at Sumitomo Mitsui, a unit of Japan’s third- biggest bank. “The dollar’s fall won’t stop until there’s a change to the global currency system.”

Blame Bush? Blame Obama? I think the former gets some demerits, and the latter just inherited the mess. But “excess consumption and the financial bubble” have more to do with it.

Comment by SD renter
2009-10-15 06:38:13

The dollar is dropping faster than Monica Lewinsky in Clinton’s Office.

Some white house economist turd on CNBC a few days ago was saying that a weak dollar is really good for exports. That’s like saying it’s good to obese so you can really get your money’s worth at the all-you-can-eat-buffets.

Comment by Ol'Bubba
2009-10-15 07:04:30

Yes, but it’s still bad form to move your chair to the all-you-can-eat buffet table.

 
Comment by Skip
2009-10-15 08:29:43

Yeah, it would be a shame if outsourcing jobs to other countries became too expensive for Corporate America.

 
Comment by Bill in Los Angeles
2009-10-15 12:19:57

The dollar is dropping faster than Monica Lewinsky in Clinton’s Office.

I think that line is usually phrased “dropping faster than Monica Lewinsky’s panties in Clinton’s Office.”

Comment by oxide
2009-10-15 13:23:44

No, I think the original is correct, if you remember the whole cigar conversation. And they found the DNA on the blue dress. And I can’t believe I’m saying this. :shock:

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Comment by SD Renter
2009-10-15 14:44:36

You are forgetting, he “never had $EX with that woman.” The dress remained on although slick Willie could have given her the meat stick with the dress on.

 
Comment by exeter
2009-10-15 17:34:15

Sounds like someones jealous.

 
Comment by DD
2009-10-15 22:52:12

someones jealous.

snap snap, headroll.

 
 
 
Comment by rms
2009-10-15 18:10:02

“The dollar is dropping faster than Monica Lewinsky in Clinton’s Office.”

The bald eagle is overrated; my favorite bird is the swallow.

 
 
Comment by Blue Skye
2009-10-15 06:39:36

All you need to know to be a “chief strategist” is how to lay a ruler on two data points and draw a straight line to infinity.

Comment by cereal
2009-10-15 08:44:06

Chuck Norris has counted to infinity.

Twice.

Comment by milkcrate
2009-10-15 10:07:47

Don’t forget Buzz Lightyear (who probably wanted to mine for precious metals on the moon all along).

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Comment by SanFranciscoBayAreaGal
2009-10-15 11:14:09

That is the shortest distance between two points ;)

 
 
Comment by yensoy
2009-10-15 07:11:52

Yen, Euro, Pound who cares!

(ProfB: and certainly nobody cares about the Zloty or Krona)

The big question is how many Renminbi to the Dollar - will it continue to be around 6.8 or are we going to see some elasticity in that. I believe the game play is to force China to decouple, in effect reducing the value of their holdings at the same time making their exports to the US more expensive, and then finding market rates for short term treasuries.

As long as China has pegged the RMB and continues to buy treasuries with no end to its appetite, there is no point providing any extra support for the dollar. How’s that going to help America?

One consequence of the above is that the USD will fall with respect to the other currencies. In effect, the US-China trade war now becomes a China-Europe and China-Japan trade war since the Chinese currency is now really really cheap in Euro or Yen terms. Let the Euros fight it out with the Chinese.

Now at some point someone in China is going to push the panic button. When that happens, what choices do the Chinese have? Let the RMB slide (as it did from 7.8 to 7.2 to 6.8 where it has held steady for over a year)? How much will they let it slide by? It’s totally unlikely that they will bring it down to the fair market level of 4 (which is what it should be if the yen is 50 to the dollar) - unlikely because the Chinese hate to do anything drastic.

Again I bring up my “tailgator” analogy. What do you do when someone tailgates you? Drive faster? No way. You take your foot off the gas and slow down gradually till the point where the idiot behind you gets pissed off enough that he breaks free. (or he pulls a gun, which hopefully won’t be the case)

What’s the end game here? I believe the intent is to convey who is the boss. It’s to realign the world’s economies. It is to pull China into the #2 spot, and ensure that the US stays at #1 for the foreseeable future.

Comment by milkcrate
2009-10-15 10:11:09

There was a time when a sage, wise-cracking poster would offer illustrative counsel on how to play sterling. Maybe his laptop has broken, or he is perusing art gallery additions to permanent collections.

 
 
Comment by WT Economist
2009-10-15 07:15:21

So what does this mean for the inflation/deflation debate?

Some have argued that a falling dollar can’t create inflation, because imports are just 13% of GDP. But one thing we import is a necessity — oil.

If energy prices go up, lots of industries that use energy have to either raise prices, lose money, or shut down. After losing money for a while, they shut down, reducing capacity and allowing others to raise prices.

And labor? Yes, eventually laid off construction workers, mortgage brokers and retail sales clerks can start assembling TVs and sewing blue jeans, but for a long time having unemployed workers such as these will not affect the ability to produce domestically to substitute for imports.

In addition, things Americans might like to buy may be exported, like doestically produced food.

To me, this all points to demand-pull inflation, but the painful reality is it won’t be our own demand, as our earnings go to debt service.

Comment by Blue Skye
2009-10-15 07:27:01

“our earnings go to debt service”

until that debt cannot be serviced, cannot be rolled over, cannot be paid.

 
Comment by DinOR
2009-10-15 09:13:17

Well, aren’t the Chinese -already- buying U.S-based REIT’s instead of treas?

 
Comment by packman
2009-10-15 10:01:52

because imports are just 13% of GDP

OK dumb question - aren’t imports by definition not a component of GDP? How can something that’s Domestically Produced be considered an import?

(P.S. the question is somewhat rhetorical - I think they’re just playing loose with the term “imports”. Presumably they’re referring to things that are domestically produced but using imported components - e.g. I believe gasoline that’s refined in the U.S. from imported oil would fall into that category)

 
Comment by Bill in Los Angeles
2009-10-15 12:33:09

We are in a deflationary environment in some prices: Houses, rents, computers, wages.

We are in an inflationary environment: monetary inflation. The government’s policies is inflationary.

When the government gives someone $10 trillion to loan, and that someone is not loaning, the money is not chasing goods.

Conventional wisdom is that inflation is too much money chasing too few goods.

Well there is certainly too much money. It’s just not allowed to do any chasing.

But eventually the chasing will start. Gold is leading the way.

 
 
Comment by Professor Bear
2009-10-15 07:40:34

“The dollar may drop to 50 yen next year and eventually lose its role as the global reserve currency, Sumitomo Mitsui Banking Corp.’s chief strategist said, citing trading patterns and a likely double dip in the U.S. economy.”

Why does any of this even matter, now that the DJIA is back above 10,000 again?

Comment by Prime_Is_Contained
2009-10-15 07:55:13

“Why does any of this even matter, now that the DJIA is back above 10,000 again?”

Happy days are here at last!

/snark

Comment by ecofeco
2009-10-15 23:50:19

So long sad times
Go long bad times
We are rid of you at last

Howdy gay times
Cloudy gray times
You are now a thing of the past

Happy days are here again
The skies above are clear again
So let’s sing a song of cheer again
Happy days are here again

Altogether shout it now
There’s no one
Who can doubt it now
So let’s tell the world about it now
Happy days are here again

Your cares and troubles are gone
There’ll be no more from now on
From now on …

Happy days are here again
The skies above are clear again
So, Let’s sing a song of cheer again

Happy times
Happy nights
Happy days
Are here again!

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Comment by cereal
2009-10-15 08:48:00

” the DJIA is back above 10,000 again”

Flash this on the TV screen for those waiting in welfare lines. Watch those big smiles form.

 
Comment by dude
2009-10-15 14:01:14

The Dow 10000 is one of the best indicators that the dollar will be at 50 yen next year.

 
 
Comment by scdave
2009-10-15 08:18:01

former gets some demerits ??

He gets most of them IMO….Asleep at the wheel ?? Incompetence ?? Over his head ?? Arrogance to the detriment of the whole country ?? I suggest the later…Mission accomplished…No WMD here…I am the Decider…I only listen to a higher father…To name just a few…

 
Comment by az_lender
2009-10-15 09:18:10

Glad my upcoming Xmas trip to Tanzania with a great-nephew was priced in USD back in the spring. Last major trip outside the US?

Comment by WT Economist
2009-10-15 09:37:34

Other than to Iceland, perhaps yes.

Comment by scdave
2009-10-15 09:45:47

I am interested in going to Panama…Anybody been there ??

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Comment by DD
2009-10-15 10:21:23

Hear from many friends who love it there.

 
 
Comment by az_lender
2009-10-15 11:53:52

“other than to Iceland”

HAHAHAHAHA (I don’t know if you’re alluding to the fact that I’m STILL the proud [<--not] owner of a big chunk of Treasury paper issued by the Icelandic government. Recently I tried to sell it to establish the tax loss, but currency restrictions prevent that at the moment. So it’s rather like owning a House That Won’t Sell…except that I don’t actually have to pay money to hang onto the Ice bonds)

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Comment by wmbz
2009-10-15 06:03:09

U.S. Initial Jobless Claims Fall to Lowest Level Since January.

Oct. 15 (Bloomberg) — The number of Americans filing first-time claims for unemployment benefits dropped last week to the lowest level in nine months, indicating the improving economy is leading to a slowdown in firings.

Applications fell by 10,000 to 514,000 in the week ended Oct. 10, lower than forecast, from a revised 524,000 the week before, Labor Department data showed today in Washington. The total number of people collecting unemployment insurance also decreased.

Fewer dismissals don’t mean that companies will boost hiring, signaling the jobless rate is likely to keep climbing in the early stages of the economic rebound. Mounting joblessness is among reasons Federal Reserve policy makers, who project the recovery will be “restrained,” are likely to keep interest rates low for months to come.

“What we expect for the most part is the downward trend to continue,” Maxwell Clarke, chief U.S. economist at IDEAglobal in New York, said before the report. “We will probably have more sustained growth in the labor market starting in early 2010. From there we will find a peak in the unemployment rate and ultimately create jobs.”

Claims were forecast to fall to 520,000 from the 521,000 originally reported for the previous week, according to the median of 41 economists’ forecasts in a Bloomberg News survey. Estimates ranged from 490,000 to 550,000.

Comment by James
2009-10-15 06:38:51

Turn out they aren’t unemployed, just discouraged.

But I’m sure we can have GS arrange a bond sale to funnel some money to these fella’s. Probably need to give 10% off the top to cash call, I mean GS to handle the bond sale.

 
Comment by edgewaterjohn
2009-10-15 06:46:11

“…and ultimately create jobs.”

My nominee for loaded statement of the day award.

 
Comment by Cassandra
2009-10-15 07:45:02

Eventually, the way it’s measured, unemployment will go to zero, as the last eligible person collecting unemployment benefits has their benefits expire.

 
Comment by In Montana
2009-10-15 08:15:19

the story was about first-time claims…just sayin.

Comment by WT Economist
2009-10-15 08:26:57

That’s still a hell of a lot of first time claims.

 
 
 
Comment by wmbz
2009-10-15 06:08:37

CHICAGO (MarketWatch) — Women are increasingly reining in spending and promising that their new frugality is here to stay — a vow that, if followed, could throw a wrench into the economic recovery.

Women with children overwhelmingly told researchers in a recent Citi poll that their spending and savings habits have changed “forever.” Though most surveyed were optimistic about the economy over the next year, women in every income category said they were curtailing purchases on major items as well as everyday needs.

“There’s a lot of reset going on in terms of returning to the basics,” said Lisa Caputo, chief executive of Citi’s Women & Co., a financial-resource program aimed at women. “Women are looking at this recession in very personal ways.”

Seventy-five percent of mothers, both single and married, said savings and spending habits will never go back to pre-recession levels, while 61% of women without children said that, as did 60% of men.

When it comes to being forced to dip into savings and investments to cover bills, mothers widely outnumbered women without children — 62% compared with 52% — as well as men, at 39%.

About 63% of women with children are holding off buying big-ticket items like a car compared with 50% of women without children and 52% of men.

“Women across all sectors believe that their financial situations have deteriorated,” Caputo said. “They are not going to be high-flying consumers with open pocketbooks.”

Comment by X-philly
2009-10-15 06:26:22

Translation:

credit limits have been decreased

Comment by scdave
2009-10-15 08:36:03

Translation: Credit cards are gone…

 
 
Comment by REhobbyist
2009-10-15 06:30:13

I’m bucking the trend. I bought a used car a couple of weeks ago - was able to talk them down by waving my checkbook at them.

Comment by scdave
2009-10-15 08:38:10

I did also about 2 months ago after at least 6 months looking…I got what I think was a outstanding deal on a really, really nice car…

Comment by DD
2009-10-15 10:25:06

congrats sc, what kind/yr?

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Comment by scdave
2009-10-15 13:20:57

An immaculate 2000 E-430….

 
Comment by exeter
2009-10-15 17:37:33

Yawn…….

Frugality is a choice. The profligate MEW slaves proclaiming their new religion is nothing more than a new slavery. They have no choice.

 
 
 
 
Comment by alpha-sloth
2009-10-15 07:12:48

I thought this recession was hitting men the hardest. Why do they have the lowest rates of ‘being forced to dip into savings and investments to cover bills’?

 
Comment by rms
2009-10-15 07:16:21

The ladies don’t waste much time floundering in the past.

Comment by Olympiagal
2009-10-15 10:05:06

Seventy-five percent of mothers, both single and married, said savings and spending habits will never go back to pre-recession levels, while 61% of women without children said that, as did 60% of men.

I should think that taking good care of the little guys who depend on you would be the primary concern for any mother, or mothering person.
(At least any mother worth her salt, in my not very humble opinion.)

Worrying about whether your little guys are now getting and will be in the future able to get good food, adequate clothes, shelter?
Scary.
I’m not surprised some priorities have changed lately.

Comment by DD
2009-10-15 10:27:00

Whilst wandering the donation stores, they say, donations are much lower, in terms of furnishings this yr+1/2. And they report more people shopping for clothes.

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Comment by Arizona Slim
2009-10-15 10:55:28

Another data point: The City of Tucson’s Environmental Services director spoke to my neighborhood association on Tuesday. Seems that there’s a lot less revenue to be made from recycling. City’s seeing fewer recycling bins being put out on trash/recycling day.

Our association president said that this is because people are re-using things that they might have recycled in the past.

 
Comment by oxide
2009-10-15 12:03:48

I’m prepping to move, and I’ve been donating random pieces of furniture and kitchen stuff. I’m glad my old stuff is finding a new home.

 
Comment by Olympiagal
2009-10-15 13:03:37

I’m prepping to move, and I’ve been donating random pieces of furniture and kitchen stuff.

Oh, good on ya. Waste is bad.

 
 
Comment by mikey
2009-10-15 11:39:36

This country is insane.

We can come up with taxpayer money and a policy to piss it away invading and giving aid to other countries.

We can come up with taxpayer money and a policy to piss away it away floating around in space and shooting the frigg’n moon.

We can come up with taxpayer money and a policy to piss it away on Wall Street thugs and white collar crooks.

We can come up with taxpayer money…ah..piss on it !
:(

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Comment by dude
2009-10-15 14:07:40

Have your taxes gone up? Almost ALL of the new spending is coming from new issuance of debt. It is the money of future taxpayers.

 
 
 
 
Comment by Arizona Slim
2009-10-15 10:49:46

Women are increasingly reining in spending and promising that their new frugality is here to stay — a vow that, if followed, could throw a wrench into the economic recovery.

New frugality? Yeesh, those people don’t know my mother. She’s always been frugal. I can remember her doing grocery price comparisons back when I was too young to walk around the store.

Oh, I should also mention that my father is also quite frugal. It’s one of the reasons why Mom married him.

Comment by dude
2009-10-15 14:10:45

You know Slim, I think we could do a little survey and find that there is an inverse relationship between how hard this recession is hitting folks and how frugal they have been in the past. That little fact of life might cause some politicos and econos heads to explode.

 
 
Comment by FED Up
2009-10-15 13:01:59

They don’t want to pay much for anything, EXCEPT houses. The sale of houses in my area (Chicago Western suburbs) have really seemed to pick up in the last couple months and they are very far from being a good buy. This has become a huge pet peeve of mine. I can’t pay an extra $25 for something, but I can overpay by at least $150,000 for a crappy old house. (rant off)

 
 
Comment by awaiting wipeout
2009-10-15 06:28:08

The Next Big Bailout? FHA Facing “Cataclysmic” Default Rates -video interview
http://finance.yahoo.com/tech-ticker/article/352663/The-Next-Big-Bailout-FHA-Facing-%22Cataclysmic%22-Default-Rates?tickers=FNM,FRE,XHB,TOL,PHM,LEN,XLF

In his closing, he credits the govt for saving us. What chutzpah.

Comment by arizonadude
2009-10-15 06:55:22

the govt is now the new subprime lender cause every hard working american deserves a home.

 
 
Comment by REhobbyist
2009-10-15 06:35:14

Apparently there were lots of lobbyists crowding the room where Barney Frank was concocting regulations on derivatives.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2009/05/13/AR2009051302393_2.html

Comment by oxide
2009-10-15 12:10:07

Public Congressional meetings are always jammed with lobbysists. It’s a little known fact, and until recently nobody cared. (I learned about this while I following the during the mark-ups on the health care bills.)

The lobbyists are the devils literally whispering in the Congressperson’s ear. Meanwhile, if you call your Congressperson to voice your opinion, they ask for your zipcode just to make sure you’re a voter (some bastards ask for the whole nine-digit number). I wonder, when a lobbyist shows up promising campaign cash, do they ask him for HIS zipcode?

Comment by oxide
2009-10-15 12:11:32

Yikes, I tortured a sentence. I mean: I learned about the lobbyists while I was following the news as the committees were marking up health care bills.

 
 
 
Comment by jetson_boy
2009-10-15 06:51:28

I wanted to thank those that responded to my post yesterday. I was the guy frustrated that housing prices in the Bay Area are still crazy high, I want to move out of state, and yet can’t easily find a job. Some of your responses made me feel a lot better.
We rent a 4 bedroom house which has a nice yard, a garden, a garage, and in a nice neighborhood. We pay an obscenely low price for it because we’ve been here 6 years and the landlord likes us, so he doesn’t raise the rent. Some of the neighbors who bought have already bought and sold in the time frame we did. One was foreclosed upon.
But I can’t deny that its still frustrating. Its like every day there’s more “good” news that things are getting “better”. People are eating it up to. Somehow, someway every other house that gets a for sale sign gets sold, and usually close to asking. The only difference between 2006 and 2009 is that instead of paying $650,000, they’ll pay $550,000. Makes me want to scream: ” That’s still a huge fucking amount of money people!”

We all knew this was a crazy housing bubble. But to me it looks like despite the worst downturn in Bay Area history, those prices are still at bubble levels and people are seemingly eager and happy to pay the prices. Thus I’m not putting the thought out of my head that its possible that the Bay Area is permanently gentrified. Its going to be 20-30something yuppies pushing baby strollers or old prop 13 protected farts who will cling to their homes only to pass them down to their kids.

Basically, California and the Bay Area make me sick. Sure- the weather is nice. The views are beautiful. The food is great. So what. I’ve been here for 10 years. I’ve saved up money for that entire time. So has my Wife. To be honest I’m tempted just to say the hell with it, move to the sticks of NC or GA, buy some home on some land for cash, and do menial jobs just to pay the utilities.

I will say I have an interview with a company in Austin next week. If I get it, even if the pay is 50% less than what I was making, I’m getting the hell out of here. I kind of feel the urgency to do so because it seems like young professionals like me are fleeing like rats, and Austin seems to unfortunately be one of those cities they go to. So I might as well go there before it gets ruined too, if it isn’t already. Hell- you can’t even afford the downtown area anymore. The taxes will eat you alive and buying the typical $400,000 house in the nice part of downtown Austin would mean paying a $8,000 a year tax bill.

Sorry for rambling.

Comment by rms
2009-10-15 07:27:21

“Sorry for rambling.”

Keep it coming; line up the shot glasses behind that keyboard.

Comment by jetson_boy
2009-10-15 07:41:49

ha ha! Its too early to drink for me. Maybe in an hour or so.

Comment by Dale
2009-10-15 08:52:53

I don’t like to drink in the morning,…. so now I sleep until noon!

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Comment by Al
2009-10-15 07:48:33

“We pay an obscenely low price for it because we’ve been here 6 years and the landlord likes us, so he doesn’t raise the rent.”

“I’ve saved up money for that entire time. So has my Wife.”

“Sure- the weather is nice. The views are beautiful. The food is great.”

Why are you thinking of moving again?

Comment by Professor Bear
2009-10-15 08:14:53

If you have money, cheap rent, a decent job and the ability to save, I would stick around. I have a longer post that hopefully will appear later which puts the CA home price appreciation over the time you have lived in here somewhat into perspective. To add to that, prices tripled in the East Bay tripled over the same period.

As I have pointed out many times on this blog, the early-1990s recession officially ended in 1991, but CA housing prices did not bottom out until 1996. Assuming the recession will officially end this year, the same timing would imply no bottom in CA prices until 2014. By then, perhaps the CA government will have undergone some kind of miraculous transformation which gives hope that the state will not proceed to disintegrate into a pile of rubble.

Patience, fellow renter!

Comment by X-philly
2009-10-15 09:00:37

maybe he’s getting house lust pressure from the spousal unit.

I get that kind of pressure and I’m not even married

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Comment by GrizzlyBear
2009-10-15 09:42:11

You’re not even married and getting that from a guy?? RUN, FAST!

 
Comment by milkcrate
2009-10-15 10:15:56

Houses and partners do tend to come and go.

 
Comment by X-philly
2009-10-15 10:20:37

He really thinks he’s helping me. Then I remind him of the long list of things that need fixed on his house, and he “gets it” - for the time being.

I don’t even go into the math of it.

The one good idea he’s come up with is for him to buy another house (as an investment) and rent it to me.
Now that would be a win/win: I’d be in a nicer place, and he’d have a trouble free reliable tenant.

 
Comment by milkcrate
2009-10-15 10:44:22

Just don’t play NWA too loud. :)

 
Comment by milkcrate
2009-10-15 10:46:20

What I hear from signicant other is why we aren’t buying an investment home or two. A lot of our friends have. I keep saying that prices keep dropping.

 
Comment by Al
2009-10-15 10:55:56

“What I hear from signicant other is why we aren’t buying an investment home or two.”

I actually had the idea in my head that I wanted an investment property, before finding the HBB. My wife talked me out of it, not because she knew anything about bubbles, but because she didn’t want the headache of being a LL.

 
Comment by X-philly
2009-10-15 11:09:11

Just don’t play NWA too loud.

Yeah, our musical paths do tend to diverge, but then
cross when it comes to the blues and country music. Although he will put on the local college station when it plays old school disco, maybe ’cause he likes to watch me shake it.

lol

(TMI?)

 
Comment by Olympiagal
2009-10-15 11:29:58

My wife talked me out of it, not because she knew anything about bubbles, but because she didn’t want the headache of being a LL.

Well, Al, you obviously got a keeper. You just go march right up to her and give her a hearty smack on the bum and say ‘That’s from Olygal, a token of approval for my precious heifer and her genious pretty little head.’

She’ll like that a lot, I’m sure. Really—you can believe me on this. Really.

 
Comment by milkcrate
2009-10-15 11:30:05

“Burn Rubber” and all those?
Or reaching back to Gloria Gaynor?
Move the furniture.

 
Comment by X-philly
2009-10-15 12:01:54

All the way back to Gloria…

move the furniture and roll up the rug -

Must be the music

 
Comment by Al
2009-10-15 12:29:53

“You just go march right up to her and give her a hearty smack on the bum and say ‘That’s from Olygal,…”

Hmmm. Me and the couch haven’t been spending much time together recently, so yah, I’ll do it!

 
Comment by Olympiagal
2009-10-15 13:13:46

Hmmm. Me and the couch haven’t been spending much time together recently, so yah, I’ll do it!

:lol: :lol:

 
 
Comment by mikey
2009-10-15 09:32:57

I believe that the “true cost of living” on both coasts and a in few hot spots is going to put a real hurting on them in this recession.

While wages are higher in California and NY, so is housing, a cup of coffee and a burger in a restuarant.

The wages a less in flyover states but then, so are many things like the cost of housing, coffee and a burger. Less money but it goes a little further.

Also, egos tend to be a little smaller :)

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Comment by Cassandra
2009-10-15 12:41:21

And the less you earn, the less taxes you pay. Fed income tax is pretty much the same everywhere.

 
 
 
Comment by SaladSD
2009-10-15 11:20:44

Yeah, sounds like he has it pretty good. He’s obsessing too much about keeping up with the house-indebeted Joneses. We left Cali for a few years when I was a kid and hated it. We came back… I know folks love to dump on California, but as long as you keep your priorities straight and don’t get caught up in all the Hollywood hoopla that newcomers bring with them, it’s really not the different than other places… We even have our own bible belt in Orange County!

Comment by Arizona Slim
2009-10-15 12:05:03

We even have our own bible belt in Orange County!

I’ve dealt with those people. ‘Twas when I was doing post-Katrina reconstruction in Mississippi. They were some of the meanest, most unloving people I’ve ever met. Not very good advertisements for Christianity.

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Comment by X-GSfixer
2009-10-15 15:58:52

OTOH, there were the New Orleans whiners on the news today, whining about not getting FEMA benefits……..

“I still didn’t get no FEMA money. I voted for Obama because I wanted change…..”

I guess “change” means different things to different people.

“Change” to me meant a change in the country’s leadership.

To this guy, “change” meant “cash”.

 
 
Comment by DD
2009-10-15 12:06:49

ong as you keep your priorities straight and don’t get caught up in all the

Just like living in LV I hear. Just don’t go to the strip. Stay far far away and you could ostensibly live decently, esp now with rents low, tons of foreclosures= low prices.

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Comment by Professor Bear
2009-10-15 08:07:39

“Basically, California and the Bay Area make me sick. Sure- the weather is nice. The views are beautiful. The food is great. So what. I’ve been here for 10 years. I’ve saved up money for that entire time. So has my Wife.”

By an accident of history, my family and I moved to the Bay Area three years before you (assuming you came in 1999), in 1996, when it was cheaper to buy a comparable property than rent. The bubble started inflating in earnest in 1998 or so. Between 1998-20006, housing prices roughly tripled. The same thing happened in San Diego over the period. For instance, the home where we live now had the following succession of sale prices:

Date / Sale Price / Annual Rate of Return*
03/1997 $177,500 NA
08/2000 $290,000 15.5%
09/2004 $565,000 17.7%

Total increase in “value” from 03/1997 through 09/2004 =

(565,000/177,500-1)*100 = 218% (i.e., this home sold in 2004 for three times the amount for which it sold in 1997).

This is not an anomaly, as any reasonable home in California in a decent area most likely saw a similar parabolic bubble increase in the price for which it could have been sold in 2004 relative to what it would have sold for in 1996-1997.

Here we are in 2009, and prices corrected somewhat from 2006-2009, but there is perhaps the most massive effort in financial history underway by the government to stop market forces in their tracks by putting a floor under home prices. So far, so good, except that housing prices in California are still too high relative to incomes, even if there were not the worst recession since the 1930s playing out as a backdrop to the post-bubble bust.

I personally don’t blame you or anyone else for trying to get out of California. The state is screwed on so many other levels besides housing. It is a great place to live, but very hard to lay down roots here, unless you are super wealthy, or in some kind of protected class which qualifies for special subsidies.

* ((new price)/(old price)^(1/(elapsed time in years))-1)*100

 
Comment by WT Economist
2009-10-15 08:30:30

“I’ve been here for 10 years. I’ve saved up money for that entire time. So has my Wife. To be honest I’m tempted just to say the hell with it, move to the sticks of NC or GA, buy some home on some land for cash, and do menial jobs just to pay the utilities.”

Sounds like NY in the 1980s, when I was young. Save your money, don’t buy, and plan on spending it where it is worth something. I had an interview too, and finished second. But before we got around to moving, prices had finally come down, and we ended up buying and staying. It took seven years, 1987 to 1994.

Comment by scdave
2009-10-15 08:51:36

I think that is sound advise W T…

 
 
Comment by salinasron
2009-10-15 08:33:33

“California and the Bay Area make me sick. Sure- the weather is nice. The views are beautiful. The food is great.”

Yes the weather is nice but I don’t see a lot of folks out there taking advantage of it. Just look at all the fat folks walking around the plazas, malls and grocery stores. As for food, there are plenty of restaurants but very few quality ones. Beautiful views? Cars, houses, electrical lines, etc doesn’t constitute a beautiful view; mountain streams, lakes, pine trees, desert vistas do.

Comment by DinOR
2009-10-15 09:25:27

salinasron,

I had to wait for a CA to post before I could chime in. Right, when you’re working TWO jobs and/or stuck in traffic 3 hours a day, just how much could you be ‘enjoying’ all that nice weather?

Secondly, I’ve been stationed in the BA and I didn’t see a lot chicks running around in bikini’s? In ways, your weather doesn’t really appeal to me all that much more than OR? And it certainly wouldn’t be viewed as a ‘plus’ where “I” am concerned. IMHO.

Comment by Rancher
2009-10-15 10:21:57

Nothing like visiting SF in the summer and
having to wear a sweater and a wind breaker.

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Comment by marshall
2009-10-15 13:04:36

Tell me about it. I haven’t been back to the Bay area since 1987, (born there and moved in ‘73) but I still remember not taking anything but a suit (for church) and shorts and a light windbreaker. (It’s California don’t you know) had to borrow my brother’s jeans on our boat trip around Alcatraz.
Wasn’t it Frank Zappa who moved to CA and gave away all of their winter coats only to have to go out and buy them all over again?
We went out in August and i didn’t see any bikinis. I saw a lot of wetsuits on the surfers though. Cold weather and cold water.

As a side note, my Dad used to work for BART and got laid off and at the time my Mother inherited a home in VA. we ended up moving to Danville VA because my Father got a job working on the Metro in Washington DC and we lived in VA.
Long story short, by the time my Dad died their house in Danville VA was worth bubkas (paid off though) Meanwhile my Mother always wanted to buy a row house in San Francisco (like my godparents) but they could never get the down payment together. Turns out later my Dad told her that my godparents (who owned a drycleaner) offered to give them the down payment, but my Dad refused without asking my Mom’s opinion.
Houses back then , 1972, were around $30-40K. How much are they worth today? PLus my older brother and sis could have gone to a CA state college tuition free! Oh well.

 
Comment by Olympiagal
2009-10-15 13:15:45

Turns out later my Dad told her that my godparents (who owned a drycleaner) offered to give them the down payment, but my Dad refused without asking my Mom’s opinion.

Good thing he was already dead, and therefore not in a position to be killed.

 
Comment by DD
2009-10-15 22:58:27

, 1972, were around $30-40K.

Yep. those really neat old victorian houses on that one great street? were $70k in 1973.
dang

 
 
 
 
Comment by Skip
2009-10-15 08:43:22

Austin has quite a few nice areas that are not downtown and prices vary a lot.

 
Comment by cereal
2009-10-15 08:54:58

Jetson pegged it. The peeps “feel” good right now. And furthermore, I can’t think of one single thing that could possibly change that “feeling”.

ok maybe a few….

 
Comment by oxide
2009-10-15 08:59:29

To be honest I’m tempted just to say the hell with it, move to the sticks of NC or GA, buy some home on some land for cash, and do menial jobs just to pay the utilities.

Ah, the ol’ Oil City plan. :-) I think a LOT of people want to do this. Maybe do some consulting on the side as a small business…or get together with 10 neighbors and sell broccoli at the farmer’s market… People can break even on this type of career, but they can’t afford the individual health insurance.

Comment by jetson_boy
2009-10-15 12:39:39

Well, the thing is that I actually did grow up in the sticks, in East TN as a matter of fact. That’s sort of my comfort zone. We actually grew a lot of our own food. My dad had a small business. My Mom was a school teacher. We were never rich but we had a pretty nice house on 14 acres. I look around in some of those areas. Land and houses are still very reasonable. That and you are close to some nice national parks like the Smoky mountains which few of the tourists actually hike in unlike in Cali where the trails are crammed with people.

So… I’m actually not a city slicker. Never was one. I’ve never really fit in in a city. Its just not my vibe. So as someone who did grow up in the sticks, the temptation to move back is pretty high. Most people I know are from big cities and they are absolutely terrified that anywhere outside of a city in the boondocks is full of crazy hillbillies out to get em’. That or someone with a Bible will hit them over the head or something. I know a little better. I also nod my head in agreement when they bring these things up because I want them to find these areas undesirable.

Comment by Olympiagal
2009-10-15 13:29:32

they are absolutely terrified that anywhere outside of a city in the boondocks is full of crazy hillbillies out to get em’.

Thass ’cause they are. It’s just terrible what crazed sticks-dwellers purposely do to civilized and refined city-folks. It’s because we resent them having all those teeth and briefcases and other fancy city thingies.

That or someone with a Bible will hit them over the head or something.

Naw… Bibles are too soft and bendy, especially if it’s one a them sissy modern-translation kinds, with the faux-leather binding, like you can steal from Motel 6. Man, thems chaps my hide! If Baby Jeebus wanted to spread His word in regular English, He would go on Oprah. But He’s not on Oprah, is He, which is how we know He likes the ‘thee’s and ‘thous’ and ‘yeas’ and ‘verilys’. That there’s fancy Heaven-language and should not be tampered with.
Oh, but I just thought–if you had enough Bibles, then that would do the job.
Although phonebooks would be better.

I also nod my head in agreement when they bring these things up because I want them to find these areas undesirable.

Sure. I only got so many phone-books, after all, and body disposal can be a real b*tch. All those teeth and briefcases and stuff…. ;)

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Comment by packman
2009-10-15 13:35:28

Sure. I only got so many phone-books, after all, and body disposal can be a real b*tch. All those teeth and briefcases and stuff…. ;)

Friends help you move.

Good friends help you move bodies.

 
Comment by Olympiagal
2009-10-15 14:40:31

You speak truth, packman.

You know, last month I was thinking about killing someone, (a developer, by the way, and they deserved it, so it’s okay) but then I realized that he is twice as big as me, so it’d be a poser firstly portioning him out, and then stuffing him in my little car and hauling him away. Besides, he might leak all over, worse than moss specimens or coffee-grounds, which is what’s sprinkled all over in there at this time.
The complications continue to build: most of the spots where the ground is soft enough for me to dig a hole in are wetlands. The irony would just be delightfully astounding. And I love irony, you know.
But think of the decomp! Icky! Nasty for salmonids and frogs!
Give a hoot! Don’t pollute!

*hoots like an owl and spins head around *

Sigh. Anyway. That’s why that guy is still breathing right now.

 
Comment by Olympiagal
2009-10-15 14:42:12

That’s why that guy is still breathing right now.

Until next month, at least, when it’ll have been raining for a few weeks and the ground will be nice and soft and diggable everywhere…

 
Comment by Prime_Is_Contained
2009-10-15 16:54:04

Oly, I thought decomp was actually _good_ for the soil… That might change your math. More research required!

 
Comment by Olympiagal
2009-10-15 17:04:44

Oly, I thought decomp was actually _good_ for the soil… That might change your math. More research required!

Let’s apply for a research grant! I know I’m willing. :lol:

 
Comment by Olympiagal
2009-10-15 17:09:22

Let’s apply for a research grant! I know I’m willing.

Then we can wear white lab coats around and look wise, and drink coffee and gossip and boss unpaid interns and spin on our chairs!
…Just like now, except I bet I’ll get paid LOTS more.

Ooooh, I can’t wait.

 
Comment by neuromance
2009-10-15 18:26:55

The complications continue to build: most of the spots where the ground is soft enough for me to dig a hole in are wetlands. The irony would just be delightfully astounding. And I love irony, you know.
But think of the decomp! Icky! Nasty for salmonids and frogs!
Give a hoot! Don’t pollute!

You know Oly, I saw a show on forensics, and found out there’s a lab where they let bodies decompose in a field, to teach investigators the various clues to look for. BUT - humans don’t sprout growth as they decay, interestingly enough. A dead human actually kills the ground around it, leaving a dead black stain on the ground for many months, if not longer. I wonder if that’s due to the toxins or preservatives or medicines we ingest.

I found it an interesting data point.

 
Comment by packman
2009-10-15 21:03:55

Moss specimens?

Piqued my curiosity with that one, Oly.

And coffee grounds - ugh. I hate when you go to nonchalantly flip them out in the trash can, but it doesn’t quite make it. A big mess, that.

W/regards to body disposal - google “wicking” and “spontaneous combustion”. Hook up a good steam generator and maybe get some energy production tax credits.

 
 
Comment by packman
2009-10-15 13:33:04

So… I’m actually not a city slicker. Never was one. I’ve never really fit in in a city. Its just not my vibe. So as someone who did grow up in the sticks, the temptation to move back is pretty high. Most people I know are from big cities and they are absolutely terrified that anywhere outside of a city in the boondocks is full of crazy hillbillies out to get em’. That or someone with a Bible will hit them over the head or something. I know a little better. I also nod my head in agreement when they bring these things up because I want them to find these areas undesirable.

LOL. I’m from over the other side of them thar hills, in western NC. I hope to retire somewhere thereabouts some day, so am hoping the same.

So don’t any you undesirables come sniffin’ around our neck of the woods. You wouldn’t like it.

I got a scattergun, and I knows how to use it.

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Comment by Olympiagal
2009-10-15 13:35:05

Well, I got a bunch of phone-books, and that’s even worse. :)

 
Comment by jetson_boy
2009-10-15 14:14:47

We always had massive amounts of firecrackers. Those would come in handy to scare off the city slickers.

 
 
Comment by DD
2009-10-15 23:00:02

That or someone with a Bible will hit them over the head or something. I know a little better. I also nod my head in agreement when they bring these things up because I want them to find these areas undesirable.

Well, I know for sure my dad is around those parts, so yes, I am afraid.

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Comment by Eddie
2009-10-15 09:18:35

You can buy a very nice house 10 miles north of downtown Austin for $250K. I have a couple of friends who did just what you’re thinking of, moved from CA to Austin. And they both love it.

Yeah property taxes in TX are high. But there is no state income tax so you end up with a better deal really if you’re in a semi-high income bracket.

Comment by milkcrate
2009-10-15 10:18:38

Hidden dividend: Texans are, by and large, a friendly lot.

 
Comment by DD
2009-10-15 10:38:05

10 miles north of downtown Austin for $250K.

250 is still expensive. no state income tax or not.

Comment by jetson_boy
2009-10-15 12:59:25

I think 200-250k is about what you’re going to pay in just about any second tier metro. That’s for a typical house. But you can get a starter home in Austin and other for 150k or less.

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Comment by VaBeyatch in Virginia Beach
2009-10-15 13:08:13

In dumpy Norfolk/Virginia Beach $330K is a starter home. All the good jobs are government, there is limited good private jobs. Lots of tech folks and young folks flock to Austin. There are companies that matter there. Here it’s lots of military folks and the loans people trip over each other to give them, perhaps because it’s easy to get their pay docked if they get behind.

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Comment by oxide
2009-10-15 12:20:59

Then try Ohio. There are lots of little ranch houses on 1/2 acre not 20 miles from downtown Columbus in the $125K - $170K range. Podunk surrounded by corn/soy/wheat fields, but major hospitals nearby. Lots of small town living too. Highly dependent on location and the condition of the house. Of course, there’s no granite countertops and you have to heat with propane, but that’s the nature of the homestead beast.

And there are probably similar parcels at a similar price outside of dozens of medium cities: Raleigh/Durham, Roanake, Dayton, Indy, Savannah, Syracuse, Nashville, Louisville, maybe Pittsburgh…and that’s east of the Mississippi.

I don’t understand what’s so special about California.

Comment by milkcrate
2009-10-15 13:02:35

To your list I’d also toss in Cincinnati, Lexington, Ky., and Knoxville, Tenn., though there are some hollers you want to avoid.

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Comment by jetson_boy
2009-10-15 14:13:40

I’m originally from the Knoxville area. They’ve massively renovated the downtown area to where it smacks of SF, Sushi restaurants, wine bars, microbreweries, fancy lofts, grungy clubs, even a brit style pub. Its actually a kind of nice compact city with its own orchestra, art museum, and a number of other parks and so forth. It was a dump when I was a kid. Now its pretty nice. Only problem is that as soon as you get out of the city it turns into suburban sprawl from hell. But… its a very reasonable place to live. You can get a place in the sticks only 20 minutes from town. Might want to move fast though. Just like everywhere else in the South practically every other person from NJ or NY is moving in for their retirement paradises on the lake.

 
 
Comment by In Colorado
2009-10-15 14:20:08

I don’t understand what’s so special about California.

Mild weather and ice cold beaches (the water). That’s it. It was kind of idyllic in the 60’s. Now its just a cesspool with a few islands of “nice”.

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Comment by exeter
2009-10-15 18:01:21

Jetson,

Been there, done that and I am still doing it. JMHO…. if you can stay working making nice $$$ then it’s time to maintain a holding pattern. You’ve made a system for yourself there, just as I have in and around NYC. It’s the inertia that keeps me here. What was a temporary assignment back in 1999 has turned into a 10 year run of earning a real good living. Yeah, I hate it here for the most part but the thought of eeking out a living back in no-mans land or post industrial New England is a dark dark prospect for me and I won’t put my wife and daughter through it either.

I really identify with your yearning to bail to return to familiar territory but there is a reason you and I are where we are today. There are moments when I just want to bail on it all but the unknowns are too risky for a family. If I were alone I wouldn’t give a flip less. Keep in mind that nothing is permanent. Not a job, not a house, not life. This apparent resumption of idiotic speculation has me unnerved too. Honestly it’s got my balls twisted 180 degrees but I’m not going to deviate from my holding pattern unless my own personal circumstances change. If I become unemployed, all bets are off. Taking a gig with a new firm in a new geography is too risky for me. There is no reason for me to assume that risk.

Our interactions here based on our experiences over the bubble years transcend all the day to day hogwash and mindless nattering so often seen on this blog. I am fortunate this blog is here because it is posts like yours that keep me reading and sane.

 
Comment by robin
2009-10-15 21:21:48

“was making” tells it all. We all have to make concessions to deal with the new realities. No pension in my future, likely not in yours.

I’d gladly take a position at half of what I “was making”. Tried 100+ times. No longer include my MBA in my resume.

And so it goes…………

 
 
Comment by mikey
2009-10-15 07:03:18

Okay,

Ben, Polly or some of our brighter crayons in our box, help me out here. I know and understand the banks and lenders are stuck and squirming with 1st and 2nd loans and are looking at defaults and forclosures up the Wazoo. One of our HBB through out a question and a problem. He didn’t say what state he was from or if he had a 2nd mortgage.

A few days ago, Michael Viking posted that he had a strange call from Wells Fargo to modify his existing 5.75 30 year fixed loan to a mew 30 year fixed at 5.125 with no closing costs and wonder why he got the offer.

It bothered me too but I wasn’t sure why time and I don’t think we addressed it well at the time. I hope that he didn’t change his loan into a recourse loan if this is a bankster trick.

Is this a new sneaky stategy for lenders to CYA and to secure their loans in non-recourse states ?

Are these friendly calll Wells Fargo and other lenders “Offers”, at a small income loss, to satisfied and content fixed rate mortgage holders just to re-fi their loans so as to shake them out of non-recourse loans and lock them into new recourse loans BY doing the re-fi offer ?

I may not have stated this well, I’m a little slow at bankster tricks but I know what a skunk smells like.
:)

Comment by Mr. Drysdale
2009-10-15 07:27:00

Doubt that they are trying to make it recourse - I don’t know which state you are talking about, so that doesn’t help.

I think they are trying to make a buck . . . they are currently servicing the 5.75 mortgage and collecting a small servicing fee.

If they convince him to re-fi, they collect new fees, sell the paper again and then collect the same servicing fees again.

Comment by mikey
2009-10-15 07:41:30

True Mr Drysdale and that was my 1st thought at the time too.

However, with at least 1/3 of existing 2002-07 mtg’s possibly underwater and lots more to come I was just wondering if they are somehow attempting to solidify their long term financial asset positions with a possible smaller loss up front.

A handy dandy re-fi into a non-recourse would be cheap Insurance against any possible Walk Aways in the future.

 
Comment by Arizona Slim
2009-10-15 10:59:05

Oh, am I glad I have caller ID. Makes it so-o-o easy to screen this kind of call.

 
 
Comment by Michael Viking
2009-10-15 07:32:12

Well, I’m not the brightest color in the box, but I have more information. I got the paperwork yesterday. I also did another calculation. With the new loan I’ll be paying $128 less per month in principal and $66 less per month in interest. I thought maybe this new loan, since it’s a brand-spanking new 30 year loan would have higher interest payments at the front end than my loan that I’m 20 years into. Interestingly that wasn’t the case. I guess they really just expect to make more money because they think I’ll hold the loan the full 30 years.

As far as their paperwork, it came with a FAQ sheet, the first question being “This program sounds too good to be true. Is there a catch?” I’ll summarize and distill the answer for you: “It’s totally great and here’s how you know: Just look at all the other pieces of paper and you’ll see you won’t have to pay a single cent unless your notary costs money.”

Nothing in here about recourse vs. non-recourse. It does clearly state that there are no prepayment penalties. Based on the verbiage I suspect Wells Fargo is going to sell this new loan to the government and quit servicing it. Also, I have a limited time and operators are standing by so I need to act now.

Comment by Mr. Drysdale
2009-10-15 08:00:31

Don’t be surprised if that limited offer pops up again in a couple of months. ;)

If you are 20 years into a loan, why re-fi into a 30 yr at all? Compare the TOTAL remaining interest to be paid on your current loan to the TOTAL amount on the 30 yr - (monthly number is immaterial) then you’ll find your answer on this “too good to be true” deal.

Comment by Michael Viking
2009-10-15 08:14:56

Oops. That was a typo. I’m 10 years in. I have 20 years left. Maybe you’re right: They’re looking at the long term that they’re better off getting 30 years of the new loan than 20 years of the current loan. On the other hand I think they’ll sell it though. Maybe they can’t sell the current one? Maybe they can sell the new one to the government and get some cash for their balance sheet? Maybe it will show up like another poster said that they’re helping people.

Saving $66 bucks a month is pretty good to me for doing nothing except making the exact payment I’m making now.

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Comment by packman
2009-10-15 10:20:08

Please please please - don’t get caught by the howmuchamonth trap!

If you’re refi-ing into a new 30-year loan from an existing loan that’s already been paid for 10 years - and you’re only saving $66 a month - run, don’t walk, away. Unless your loan is something like a $30,000 loan or something and you’re going from $130 a month to $67 a month.

You’ll thank me in 20 years.

 
Comment by packman
2009-10-15 10:23:27

As a point of reference - I recently refinanced our mortgage. I was only 2.5 years in, and saved about $150 a month, but I still struggled with the decision.

 
Comment by DD
2009-10-15 10:45:02

operators are standing by so I need to act now.

 
 
 
Comment by mikey
2009-10-15 08:03:14

Hi Michael Viking

Thanks for this and your origional post .

I am glad that you have more information and are checking it out carefully. Good luck.

Like you, it bothered be me, as I didn’t understand what Wells Fargo was up to with the call. It’s my personal observation from the MSM and the blogs that they are not normally …kind and caring people.
;)

Comment by Jon
2009-10-15 10:01:18

Wells Fargo gave me a similar offer in 2004. My original loan was with a different bank, and I bought my house in 2001. The original loan was 30 years @ 6.25%. WF offered me a new 30 year loan at 5.2%. No closing costs. nada.

I called them and ended up getting a 15 year loan @4.75%. It worked out really well for me. I am now paying an extra $600/mo on the mortgage and it will be payed off in just a little over 4 years.

It’s nice to see mortgage balance go down by $1200 every month.

It was a heck of a good deal and took about 20 minutes to get through the paperwork.

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Comment by REhobbyist
2009-10-15 15:11:48

I agree with Jon. Michael, refinance to a 15-year loan and you’ll get a much better interest rate. Pay the damned thing off.

 
 
 
Comment by yensoy
2009-10-15 08:09:15

With the new loan I’ll be paying $128 less per month in principal and $66 less per month in interest.
Problem #1: Any comparison of how much interest versus how much principal is only valid at a certain point in time. So evidently you will be paying less in principal as well as interest as of the first month, but how about after 20 years? For your current loan you will be paying $0 in principal and $0 in interest. Does that sound not good enough?

I thought maybe this new loan, since it’s a brand-spanking new 30 year loan would have higher interest payments at the front end than my loan that I’m 20 years into.
Problem #2: No, if you had the exact same rate of interest (and mostly regardless of the pay off period) you would have the same interest payment at the front end. What happenend in the past is immaterial - all that matters is your outstanding balance, interest rate and the remaining period.

As for recourse versus non-recourse: if you are already in year 10 (or year 20) you’ve presumably built up enough equity and bought at a sensible price, so you won’t be foreclosing anyway. You do intend to pay off your loan in full. In fact they were giving a discount for converting to recourse loan it might even be worth taking it up since recouse would be only a theoritical concept in your case. Of course I’m neither a lawyer nor a CFP and I’m probably missing something to do with disability or illness or act of God.

Comment by Michael Viking
2009-10-15 08:20:56

Your analysis seems right but here’s the deal: I can keep making the exact payment I’m making today and I’ll pay the loan off about 1 year sooner than my current loan and I’ll save about $14K. So all I do is keep making my same payment and I come out ahead.

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Comment by yensoy
2009-10-15 08:30:32

That to me seems like the deal maker. Make sure your numbers are right, that there aren’t any prepayment penalties, that you are comfortable of the possible recourse-ness of the loan, and you should be good to go.

 
 
 
Comment by Prime_Is_Contained
2009-10-15 08:18:35

Michael, a few more comments:

“I thought maybe this new loan, since it’s a brand-spanking new 30 year loan would have higher interest payments at the front end than my loan that I’m 20 years into.”

This is a common misconception, that you pay “more interest on the front end”. But mortgages are all “simple interest”, which means it is as simple as multiplying the rate times the principal balance. Some other forms of debt such as car loans may use somthing called “rule of 78″ which does tend to front-load interestest payments, but not mortgages.

In other words, there is no benefit to holding onto an old loan because you have paid off more of the interest by being 10-years into it. The only interesting features of a note are the _current_ principal balance, and the rate.

“Based on the verbiage I suspect Wells Fargo is going to sell this new loan to the government and quit servicing it.”

I would guess that they want to originate the new mortgage, sell it to Phonie/Fraudie, and KEEP servicing it. There is good money in origination, and good money in servicing. It sounds to me as though WF is cherry-picking their servicing portfolio for people who are well qualified for a new loan, and have rates that suggest they might be interested in refi’ing. They are trying to generate revenue with little risk.

I would do it if the math makes sense for you. Take your existing spreadsheet, and look at what the payoff length is if you take the new loan but add back in the reduced $128 in principal payment each month. It should result in a payoff near the 20-year mark, modulo some difference for the capitalized closing costs. That’s what I would probably do: take the new loan, and pay it on the schedule that pays it off in the same time as the old loan. Over the loan life, that should be cheaper than your existing loan, but not extend your payments by an extra 10yrs.

Comment by packman
2009-10-15 10:51:20

What he said.

To my point above (”run, don’t walk, away”) - it’s worth doing this calculation first of course. I took your comment of “saving $66 a month” as referring to total savings of principle and interest; if you’re just referring to interest that’s different. However then there is no “NNN a month” savings - the amount you save per month in interest changes every month, because the principle left on the loan varies at a different rate compared with your existing loan. That is - assuming you plan to pay off in 30 years.

E.g. in two months you might pay:

Existing loan: $500 interest, $300 principle
New loan: $444 interest, $200 principle

and thus save $66 in interest, however 19 years from now:

Existing loan: $50 interest, $750 principle
New loan: $200 interest, $444 principle

Thus 19 years from now you’re no longer “saving $66 per month in interest” - you’re actually spending an addition $150 per month instead!

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Comment by mikey
2009-10-15 08:52:26

But can the “no closing costs” EXPENSES thingys be considered some sort of a borrower cash out when these banksters are writing the re-fi ?

In this question, I’m not specifically talking of Michaels case alone but an overall lender strategy to the pending forclosure epidemic. Just wondering

:)

 
Comment by Eddie
2009-10-15 11:11:54

Don’t get fixated on the monthly payment or what year of 30 you’re in. Both of those variables are irrelevant to you, or should be. Only thing that matters is over the life of the loan which one is cheaper when taking into account interest and fees. It’s a straight math problem.

 
 
Comment by alpha-sloth
2009-10-15 07:46:43

We’ve kicked around the refi=recourse question here a bunch. I think the consensus is that all refis become recourse, but I think someone said that no-cash-out refis don’t, so I guess we don’t really know.

And I don’t think the bank would mention the recourse thingy to you when they were selling you on the refi.

(I’m The Crayon Formerly Known As Flesh.)

Comment by Prime_Is_Contained
2009-10-15 08:22:02

“I think the consensus is that all refis become recourse, but I think someone said that no-cash-out refis don’t, so I guess we don’t really know.”

Recourse/non-recourse is totally a matter of state law, so it will vary by state.

(I’m The Crayon Formerly Known As Flesh.)

:-)

Comment by Olympiagal
2009-10-15 10:23:06

(I’m The Crayon Formerly Known As Flesh.)

Hahahaahah! No WAY! I was gonna say exactly that! Now it’s plain ol’ ‘Peach’.
Anyhow, now I want to be the crayon that is pink with all the sparkles rolled up in it.
Those are super-snazzy!
We didn’t have those dynamic crayons when I was a wee lass. Good thing, too—I probably would have eaten them.
Ahhhh….delicious glittery treats….

*starts to drool *

Now, moving on: I appreciate this topic being readdressed today. I cut and pasted it all into my ‘Evil As*shat Banker Tricks’ folder, just in case it comes in handy, because I’m not very good at discerning the secret schemes of evil as*shat bankers, either. I naturally assume that EVERYTHING they do is wicked, but how, exactly, is it wicked, is my problem.
There’s lots of documents in that folder, mostly cut and pasted straight from this very blog.

Maybe the most valuable thing about Ben’s Blog is the number of extremely knowledgeable smarty-pantses present and willing to share their knowledge and experiences.
I have gotten about a hundred times smarter than I was before, and all I had to to was pore obsessively over the HBB allllll dayyyy lonnnnnng, each and every day!
That’s not too much to ask. :lol:

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Comment by Olympiagal
2009-10-15 12:17:28

Testy!

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Comment by oxide
2009-10-15 12:22:07

Passy! :D

 
Comment by milkcrate
2009-10-15 13:03:47

Oly, I thought you were bout to TESTIFY!
Praise be.

 
Comment by Olympiagal
2009-10-15 13:33:46

Hahahah! And I just now barely posted a Bible-respectin’ post up above in response to jetson-boy’s ‘I- R- A- Hick’ post.

Why, maybe I AM getting ready to testify, and don’t even know it!

 
Comment by mikey
2009-10-15 15:09:57

Edges away from Olygal,
looks innocent,
and scans the blue sky for lightning bolts.
:)

 
Comment by Olympiagal
2009-10-15 16:19:16

Edges away from Olygal,
looks innocent,
and scans the blue sky for lightning bolts.

Yeah, whatEVer. I bet you’re totally crispy and still smoking slightly from YOUR last wickedness and resultant lightning bolt.
…About 10 whole minutes ago.
Hahahahaah!

 
 
 
 
Comment by Real Estate Refugee
2009-10-15 07:58:26

You think maybe they’re modifying the loan voluntarily for someone who doesn’t need it to show the government that they’re modifying loans?

The statistics won’t show that they’re modifying loans for people that don’t need it - just that loans are getting modified.

Comment by The_Overdog
2009-10-15 09:17:04

BAC/CountryWide sent me a note as well suggesting they would get me a lower rate on a refi — 1 year into a 30 year fixed at 6.125%, going down to 5.125%. I think you might be right.

Comment by dude
2009-10-15 14:50:14

AT no cost to you that one is a “no brainer”.

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Comment by polly
2009-10-15 17:09:32

That was one of my ideas too. Ans weren’t the banks going to get government money every time they did a refi? If they can figure out a way to get your not distressed loan into the program, they might be able to get their “fee” from Treasury. Not sure. I admit I didn’t pay all that much attention to the details of what was actually implemented.

Even if it isn’t one of the ones in the government program, it may just look good on their books to have “new” loans, for whatever reason.]

Crayons are great, but I liked colored pencils better. Drawing with Captain Bob!!!

 
 
Comment by Blue Skye
2009-10-15 08:11:42

Not a crayon here, but i have to wonder if banks do anything at all that is conservative in the long term, or rather do everything to make a buck in the short term.

 
Comment by measton
2009-10-15 09:12:41

It could be that they will use his case to show that they are helping struggling home owner. The gov has probably promised them a gift for this. They will slightly modify loans that are good and continue to forclose on the others.

Comment by DD
2009-10-15 10:46:35

operators are standing by so I need to act now.

Good informative thread guys. Sewed that one right up!

 
Comment by ecofeco
2009-10-16 00:14:58

measton, that makes the most sense. I think you’ve nailed it.

Because one thing I know for sure, banks are NOT there to help you in any way, shape or form.

 
 
 
Comment by wmbz
2009-10-15 07:13:20

“Some of Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner’s closest aides, none of whom faced Senate confirmation, earned millions of dollars a year working for Goldman Sachs Group Inc., Citigroup Inc. and other Wall Street firms, according to financial disclosure forms.

The advisers include Gene Sperling, who last year took in $887,727 from Goldman Sachs and $158,000 for speeches mostly to financial companies, including the firm run by accused Ponzi scheme mastermind R. Allen Stanford. Another top aide, Lee Sachs, reported more than $3 million in salary and partnership income from Mariner Investment Group, a New York hedge fund.

As part of Geithner’s kitchen cabinet, Sperling and Sachs wield influence behind the scenes at the Treasury Department, where they help oversee the $700 billion banking rescue and craft executive pay rules and the revamp of financial regulations. Yet they haven’t faced the public scrutiny given to Senate-confirmed appointees, nor are they compelled to testify in Congress to defend or explain the Treasury’s policies”.

- Clipped from N. Boortz

Comment by Professor Bear
2009-10-15 08:10:01

The Wall Street-Washington connections these days look highly incestuous to an outsider…

Comment by Blue Skye
2009-10-15 08:13:30

We have a saying in the hill country: “No matter that you divorced her, she’s still your sister.”

Comment by DD
2009-10-15 10:47:54

Dear Abby,

I live in the southeast. I am 18 yrs old. I am still a virgin.
My question is this, are my 3 brothers gay?

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Comment by dude
2009-10-15 14:52:27

… or am I coyote ugly?

 
 
 
Comment by GrizzlyBear
2009-10-15 09:50:50

“The Wall Street-Washington connections these days look highly incestuous to an outsider…

Given this fact, is it any surprise that NOTHING has changed since the meltdown? The whole bailout was an inside job.

 
 
Comment by Professor Bear
2009-10-15 08:22:49

“Let them eat cake.”

market pulse

Oct. 15, 2009, 7:43 a.m. EDT · Recommend · Post:
Goldman’s compensation and benefits jump 84%
By John Spence

BOSTON (MarketWatch) — Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (GS 188.25, -4.03, -2.10%) on Thursday said third-quarter compensation and benefits rose 84% from the comparable period last year to $5.35 billion. The bank said the increase was due to higher net revenue, which more than doubled to $12.37 billion. On a quarter-over-quarter basis, the ratio of compensation and benefits to net revenue dropped to 43.3% from 48.3%. Goldman shares were off 3% in premarket trading.

 
 
Comment by wmbz
2009-10-15 07:27:59

New York Empire Factory Index Surges to 5-Year High.

Oct. 15 (Bloomberg) — Manufacturing in the New York region expanded in October for a third straight month, reinforcing signs that factories are helping pull the economy out of the worst recession in seven decades.

The Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s general economic index soared to 34.6, the highest since mid-2004, from 18.9 in September, the bank said today, marking the first time the measure has shown expansion for at least three months since a period ending in January 2008. Readings above zero for the Empire State index signal manufacturing is growing.

Government stimulus measures such as highway repairs and an auto trade-in program, record inventory cutbacks that set the stage for renewed production and a revival in overseas demand are helping factories expand again. Stabilization in manufacturing is one reason economists estimate that growth resumed last quarter.

“The recovery is picking up steam here, at least in the New York area,” said Tim Quinlan, an economist at Wells Fargo Securities LLC in Charlotte, North Carolina. “It looks like manufacturing workers are being called back, and that means higher demand for production.”

Economists forecast the Empire manufacturing gauge would drop to 17.3, according to the median of 50 estimates in a Bloomberg News survey. Projections ranged from 12 to 22.1.

Manufacturers account for 6 percent of New York’s $1.1 trillion economy.

Comment by WT Economist
2009-10-15 08:31:48

Of course the increase is based entirely on printing money.

Comment by scdave
2009-10-15 09:08:14

Exactly….

 
 
 
Comment by Professor Bear
2009-10-15 08:18:17

One lost decade down, another one to go…

* The Wall Street Journal
* WRITING ON THE WALL
* OCTOBER 14, 2009, 8:16 P.M. ET

The Lost Decade of Stock Investing
Advisers sold us a bill of goods about the lasting value of real estate and stocks

* By DAVID WEIDNER

Here we are again: the same place we were March 1999, December 2003 and various points in between. We stand, for the first time in a long time, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average rising above 10000 – 10015.86 at Wednesday’s close to be exact — and we are left wondering the same questions we did years ago: is it just a temporary rush higher or a new floor for the great heights to come?

If the last decade taught us anything, it’s that whether the Dow is at 9999 or 10001, it only indicates that it will most certainly not be there the next day.

The business of predicting the stock market is better left to those foolish enough to think they can. Show investors a raft of positive economic and earnings data and watch them sell on the news. Show those same investors J.P. Morgan Chase & Co.’s worsening loan losses and watch the stock add 3%, as it did Wednesday.

Those of us in the media who watch the market love to make a big deal about how an index has reached a new round number. For us, it’s a big occasion like getting a new pope, president or haircut. These things don’t happen very often, we say.

Wall Street, with the help of the media, also likes create meaning where none exists. The Dow breaking 10000 is, we’re told, a psychological barrier. But, other than the use of pop psychology parlance, what exactly does that mean? Have we found our inner bull or bear?

Comment by WT Economist
2009-10-15 09:34:19

How many times did the Dow cross the 1,000 line, over how many years, in the aftermath of the “nifty fifty” stock bubble?

 
 
Comment by Professor Bear
2009-10-15 08:24:50

Time for the Fed to crash the dollar some more so the Wall Street bulls can enjoy a bit more time in the rarefied territory above 10K?

 
Comment by Professor Bear
2009-10-15 08:29:13

Where’d all them green shoots go? Here yesterday, gone today…

Why do the MarketWatch people have to qualify euphoria with the adjective near?

The silver lining: Investment banker compensation is on track for a record year, just one year after the MSM financial press announcement that the US investment banking sector had completely folded its operations!

Bank declines imperil 10K

Citigroup and Goldman results join fresh batch of economic data in giving bulls pause — a day after near-euphoria pushes Dow 30 past 10,000.

 
Comment by salinasron
2009-10-15 08:36:34

Had to drive into San Jose yesterday. Went into a grocery while there and walked right back out after seeing the pricing. Salad dressing that I buy here for $2.87 was $4.99, broccoli was $2.49 lb vs $0.79 lb here. People are not only paying higher prices for property but for food and services too.

Comment by scdave
2009-10-15 09:14:21

One reason is that the store you walked into is probably paying $50,000. per month in rent…Gotta sell a lot of broccoli even at those prices to cover that nut…

Comment by In Colorado
2009-10-15 11:43:50

Hey! I thought that high real estate prices were a win-win!

 
 
Comment by CentralCoastDude
2009-10-15 11:54:27

Taco Bell still has .89 cent tacos.

Comment by DD
2009-10-15 12:08:35

Mom and her other friends go to 3 Taco for $1.00 Tuesdays.
They are all trying to stretch a buck.

Comment by Al
2009-10-15 12:28:07

Compared to what I can make at home, Taco Bell can’t lower their prices enough.

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Comment by pismoclam
2009-10-15 19:32:35

You need to go to the ocean front Taco Bell in Pacifica. Rad

 
 
 
Comment by wmbz
2009-10-15 08:47:07

Dubai World ( International ) - 15% of Workforce
Dubai state conglomerate cuts jobs as it downsizes
10.15.09, Associated Press

DUBAI, United Arab Emirates — The deeply indebted company controlling many of Dubai’s prized state-owned businesses said Thursday it has cut 15 percent of its work force in a restructuring effort that is nearly complete.

Dubai World, a conglomerate whose businesses range from building islands and running U.S. luxury hotels to hauling cargo off ships worldwide, said the reorganization should save it $800 million over the next three years.

“Our diverse portfolio of assets … provides us with an exciting and compelling future,” Chairman Sultan Ahmed bin Sulayem said in an emailed statement. “With the reorganization, the group enters this next vital phase of our evolution better able to withstand all economic eventualities.”

Dubai World counts fewer than 70,000 employees around the world following the job cuts.

The layoffs fell especially hard in the United Arab Emirates, where a quarter of the company’s employees lost their jobs.

Most of those cuts came in the hard-hit real estate sector, which has seen property prices in Dubai plunge by half from their peak last year.

Comment by cobaltblue
2009-10-15 10:56:44

Ah yes, such fond memories of the Dubai Brothers…”China Grove” and “Takin’ it to the Streets”…

Seems they lost their way when they stopped cranking out hits and started building those psychedelic islands in the Gulf… WTF were they thinking, anyway???

Bummer… anybody seen that bag of White Widow…

 
Comment by ecofeco
2009-10-16 00:19:50

I wonder how Haliburton is doing in their new digs?

 
 
Comment by wmbz
2009-10-15 09:06:42

Insurers dropping Chinese drywall policies.
(AP)

WEST PALM BEACH, Fla. — James and Maria Ivory’s dreams of a relaxing retirement on Florida’s Gulf Coast were put on hold when they discovered their new home had been built with Chinese drywall that emits sulfuric fumes and corrodes pipes. It got worse when they asked their insurer for help — and not only was their claim denied, but they’ve been told their entire policy won’t be renewed.

Thousands of homeowners nationwide who bought new houses constructed from the defective building materials are finding their hopes dashed, their lives in limbo. And experts warn that cases like the Ivorys’, in which insurers drop policies or send notices of non-renewal based on the presence of the Chinese drywall, will become rampant as insurance companies process the hundreds of claims currently in the pipeline.

At least three insurers have already canceled or refused to renew policies after homeowners sought their help replacing the bad wallboard. Because mortgage companies require homeowners to insure their properties, they are then at risk of foreclosure, yet no law prevents the cancellations.

“This is like the small wave that’s out on the horizon that’s going to continue to grow and grow until it becomes a tsunami,” said Florida attorney David Durkee, who represents hundreds of homeowners who are suing builders, suppliers and manufacturers over the drywall. “This is going to become critical mass very shortly.”

During the height of the U.S. housing boom, with building materials in short supply, American construction companies imported millions of pounds of Chinese-made drywall because it was abundant and cheap. An Associated Press analysis of shipping records found that more than 500 million pounds of Chinese gypsum board was imported between 2004 and 2008 — enough to have built tens of thousands of homes. They are heavily concentrated in the Southeast, especially Florida.

The defective materials have since been found by state and federal agencies to emit “volatile sulfur compounds,” and contain traces of strontium sulfide, which can produce a rotten-egg odor, along with organic compounds not found in American-made drywall. Homeowners complain the fumes are corroding copper pipes, destroying TVs and air conditioners, and blackening jewelry and silverware. Some believe the wallboard is also making them ill.

Comment by measton
2009-10-15 09:17:33

Oh you have to love those insurance companies.

Comment by Jon
2009-10-15 10:16:24

Thank God in Florida conservative republicans set up a public option! Citizen’s Property Insurance Corporation is the biggest insurer in Florida. However, it hasn’t completely driven out the private sector.

 
Comment by DD
2009-10-15 10:52:15

entire policy won’t be renewed.

And some folks are worried about ins corps having a good bottom line.

Comment by Bill in Carolina
2009-10-15 11:45:14

I don’t think insurers have ever paid for defective or improperly installed building materials any more than they would pay for shoddy workmanship.

Would they pay if all the drywall seam tape started loosening? How about if the roof sheathing started to rot because the builder failed to install ridge vents? I don’t think insurers paid to have aluminum-wired houses retrofitted back in the 1980s.

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Comment by Skip
2009-10-15 13:23:19

In Texas insurance companies did have to pay out in a lot of mold claims that were in many cases due to shoddy workmanship.

 
 
 
 
Comment by Housing Wizard
2009-10-15 19:35:12

Oh ,the Americans have to compete with foreign junk and the Insurance Companies are so good faith these days . Time to purge all that is bad .

Comment by hip in zilker
2009-10-15 20:27:30

Feeling better, Wiz? I was thinking about you earlier.

 
 
 
Comment by scdave
2009-10-15 09:19:28

Homeowners complain the fumes are corroding copper pipes, destroying TVs and air conditioners, and blackening jewelry and silverware ??

Wow…I am sure its doing wonders for your lungs, kidneys and liver…

Comment by wmbz
2009-10-15 10:17:50

“Wow…I am sure its doing wonders for your lungs, kidneys and liver”…

No kidding! It’s melting your TV, and your plumbing is vaporizing. I am fairly sure it can’t be good for you. I also know I get the hell out of there!

 
Comment by Arizona Slim
2009-10-15 11:06:00

Sorry, sir, no health insurance for you. Your Chinese drywalled house is a pre-existing condition.

 
 
Comment by GrizzlyBear
2009-10-15 09:30:14

Oil up another $2 and change. If this pattern continues, we should see $4 gasoline by next spring/summer.

Comment by measton
2009-10-15 11:46:22

I’ll be sitting pretty with my 5 bikes, electric scooter, and new electric car.

Comment by GrizzlyBear
2009-10-15 11:54:04

I’ve got the motorcycle. The truck is going, soon.

Comment by Olympiagal
2009-10-15 17:02:22

What?! It’s gettin’ Rainy Time, man! Rain plus motorcycles=long red and pink corpuscle and hide-strip on the highway, quickly washed away by all that lovely water from the sky…

I’m looking for a motorcycle right now, too, Grizz. But that’s because no sensible person wants to ride one in the rain, so there’ll be bargains.
Like kayaks. I always buy kayaks in winter, because normal people don’t kayak when the sky is vertically sheeting icy water. Bargains! I smell bargains! :)

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Comment by GrizzlyBear
2009-10-15 20:15:43

Oh, I’ll still own something with four wheels, it’s just going to get much better mileage, and be much cheaper. Riding in the rain sucks.

 
 
 
Comment by Arizona Slim
2009-10-15 12:50:04

And I’ll be sitting pretty with my bicycles.

Comment by Olympiagal
2009-10-15 17:25:02

Show-off.

I can’t ride a bicycle. I mean, I can ride one, technically speaking, but then I see a pretty flower or a leaf or whatever and I start to gesticulate and fall right off. It’s a serious design flaw.

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Comment by Olympiagal
2009-10-15 18:06:14

It’s a serious design flaw.

In me, I mean. Not the bicycle.

 
Comment by mikey
2009-10-15 20:09:46

“It’s a serious design flaw.”

ROTFLMAS
:)

Was that a Freudian slip or did your chain break or something ?

 
 
 
Comment by WT Economist
2009-10-15 13:05:34

Bicycles and subway here. New meter for the new solar panels being installed tomorrow.

Are refrigerators, washers, dryers and water heaters imported? Because I have plans to replace them all with more power efficient models, and wonder if I should rush before inflation sets in, or wait for some more deflation first.

Comment by REhobbyist
2009-10-15 15:18:33

Don’t forget Cash for Clunker Refrigerators is on the way!

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Comment by oxide
2009-10-15 13:36:14

If all goes well I’ll be walking to work.

 
 
Comment by CentralCoastDude
2009-10-15 11:52:32

that’s when I break out the KLR. My Jeep at 17mpg sucks when it is $4

 
 
Comment by wmbz
2009-10-15 10:06:44

At foreclosure auctions, broken dreams on sale.

CHICAGO (Reuters) - The seven-bedroom, three-bath house in this city’s West Garfield Park neighborhood had once been someone’s American Dream.

But at a recent auction of about 100 foreclosed houses and condos, it was just Property No. 20 — and drawing no bids from a roomful of buyers despite its bargain-basement price.

“Any interest in this home at $7,000?” fast-talking auctioneer Renee Jones asked the crowd. “If not, we’ll move on.”

Saddled with swollen portfolios of foreclosed and unsold properties in the housing crisis, U.S. lenders and builders are turning to professional auctioneers to help them unload the unwanted real estate in a hurry.

It is an open question whether the auctions indicate that the U.S. real-estate market is recuperating or is still in intensive care.

But the rapid-fire, under-the-hammer sales — usually resorted to only after every other effort to market a property has failed — are on the rise across the United States, providing a colorful burst of activity in a corner of the weak economy that needs all the life it can get.

“Over the last two years, we’ve progressively seen more and more of these,” said Chris Longly, the deputy executive director of the National Auctioneers Association trade group. “It’s a sign of the times.”

Hard data on the number of foreclosed properties being sold at auction are hard to come by. “The foreclosure market is a moving target right now,” said Dave Webb of Hudson & Marshall, one of the biggest auctioneers in the market.

But Hudson & Marshall and its rivals say they are gearing up for more in the coming months, convinced that a moratorium on foreclosures earlier this year only postponed what they believe is an inevitable avalanche of new repossessions.

“The foreclosures are going to explode again,” said Webb.

Comment by Arizona Slim
2009-10-15 11:15:15

True story from the nabe: House ’round the corner has gone into foreclosure.

Before this happened, the place had quite a reputation, and it wasn’t good. It was the premier neighborhood party house. We, the neighbors, were not amused.

Place had been purchased by a specu-vestor back in ‘05. I met him shortly after he bought it, and I was immediately impressed by his ability to shoot his mouth off.

He was in construction, and he was busy-busy-busy doing condo conversions in the Catalina Foothills. Why, he expected to be tied up with conversion work for years!

Well, the air started coming out of the Foothills condo bubble in 2006. But, not to worry, I heard (via the neighborhood grapevine) that Mr. Specu-vestor also had a bunch of rental houses. Including the one around the corner from the Arizona Slim Ranch.

The nabe-grape also informed me that some of Mr. S-V’s tenants weren’t paying rent. And that was really nipping into his finances.

He tried to flip the ’round the corner house in ‘07. The woman he was living with was the real estate agent. Epic fail. House didn’t sell. So, he started renting it out, and wouldn’t ya know it, the partiers started moving in.

Guy across the street darn near wore out his phone with 911 calls. Before the house was foreclosed on, he had a conversation with Mr. S-V, who informed him that the bad, partying tenants had been kicked out, but the house was being broken into so that the parties could rock on.

Guy across the street (and a few others around here) put a stop to that.

 
Comment by shelby
2009-10-15 11:45:33

“At foreclosure auctions, broken dreams on sale.

CHICAGO (Reuters) - The seven-bedroom, three-bath house in this city’s West Garfield Park neighborhood had once been someone’s American Dream.”

They mean someone’s sick over-inflated Ego fantasy - mine-is-bigger-than-yours bullshit !!

WTF - 7 Bedrooms!!!

Sorry I have not one ounce of pity for these FB’S

I only hope it was some Bank Exec that lost it!!!

Ok, rant off /

Comment by VaBeyatch in Virginia Beach
2009-10-15 13:18:40

A bedroom for every night of the week. Giggity giggity.

Comment by ecofeco
2009-10-16 00:24:52

I think I just hurt myself laughing! :lol:

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Comment by ET-Chicago
2009-10-15 13:51:50

The seven-bedroom, three-bath house in this city’s West Garfield Park neighborhood had once been someone’s American Dream.”

They mean someone’s sick over-inflated Ego fantasy - mine-is-bigger-than-yours bullshit !!

WTF - 7 Bedrooms!!!

The neighborhood in question was the cat’s meow in the early 20th century, but has been mostly rough since the late ’60s.

It’s highly unlikely this is new construction — it’s probably something that was built in the teens or ’20s. And it could’ve been converted to apartments and back again as West Garfield’s fortunes increased or dropped.

 
 
 
Comment by wmbz
2009-10-15 10:14:54

I was a poor math student, but it looks to me like it’s costing the “gubmint” around $70,000.00 to ‘create’ one job! Sweeeet…

30,383: First tally on stimulus jobs
First reports show companies receiving stimulus contracts directly from the federal government created more than 30,000 jobs. They have been awarded $16 billion. October 15, 2009:

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) — The White House unveiled Thursday the first hard data on how many jobs the $787 billion recovery act has created.

So far, companies that have received stimulus contracts directly from the federal government have created 30,383 jobs. These firms have been awarded $16 billion in contracts, and have actually been paid $2.2 billion.

Stimulus-fueled job creation has become a very controversial issue. The White House has faced blistering attacks by Republicans, who contend that the recovery act has failed to live up to its promise to put Americans back to work.

The Obama administration downplayed the reports released Thursday, saying they represent just a small sliver of the stimulus that’s been spent, since the massive recovery act was enacted in February. The reports, which detail the number of stimulus jobs created or saved, were submitted last weekend by recipients of stimulus-funded contracts, grants and loans.

 
Comment by Otto
2009-10-15 10:23:04

@ Jetson,
Man, I feel your pain. I too live in the Bay Area. I did finally give in and buy a house. Believe me, it was something I was forced into.
However, as part of the deal, financing matters were my domain and mine only.
I fully believe that home prices were/are headed downward, and consequently decided to structure my financing accordingly.
I put down 20%, and the balance is being funded as an I/O loan. The first 5 years were at 4%, and currently the rate is at 3.75%( 1 year Libor plus 2.5 points). I’m firmly in the deflation camp so I’m not worried about rate increases in the near future.
All my extra cash is going into a “non touchable” retirement account.
Basically I have financed this whole deal on the premise that I can walk away at a moments notice. At first I did have some feelings of guilt, but as I have witnessed these bailouts over the years, the feeling has gone away. Reading about the GS bonuses just reinforces my decision that I have done the right thing. So my advise is, if you’re going to buy, make sure you leave youself an out. After all, CA is a non recourse state. As much as I hated buying the “beast”, the thought that I can walk away (minus my 20% down), does let me sleep at night.

 
Comment by wmbz
2009-10-15 12:14:35

Colorado boy floats away in homemade aircraft
Thu Oct 15, 2009 3:06pm EDT

DENVER (Reuters) - A 6-year-old boy climbed into a small homemade helium balloon resembling a flying saucer and floated thousands of feet (meters) into the air in Colorado on Thursday.

Television images showed the silver balloon floating above Colorado at about 6,000 feet as authorities were trying to find a way to land the craft safely.

A Larimer County Sheriff’s spokeswoman confirmed that the boy was inside the balloon, which she described as “a homemade helium balloon made to look like a UFO.”

The Denver Post newspaper reported that the boy got into the device, which it described as a “home-made flying saucer” at his family’s home in Fort Collins and that it then came loose from its tether.

The newspaper said that the aircraft, which can reach altitudes of 10,000 feet, was last spotted flying over nearby Weld County.

Comment by Bill in Carolina
2009-10-15 13:04:13

It landed softly in a field. It was empty.

The cable news channels gave up a lot of advertising revenue as they covered this for over an hour with no commercial interruptions.

Comment by VaBeyatch in Virginia Beach
2009-10-15 13:10:40

America just got punk’d. Kudos to the kids if it was done on purpose.

Comment by packman
2009-10-15 13:40:34

I heard that the balloon had a fold-up bottom that may not have been latched at the time - so if it was empty when it landed that means the kid fell out. A sad thing.

(assuming it’s not a publicity stunt).

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Comment by Olympiagal
2009-10-15 15:11:29

I read that too.
I just hope the kid is fine and dandy, and snickering in a bush somewhere about all the consternation he caused.
And THEN I hope the kid gets hauled out of the bush and has his *ss spanked really really hard and his allowance taken away for a zillion years, for causing such consternation.

That’s how I hope this story ends.

 
Comment by In Colorado
2009-10-15 15:36:11

He was never on board the balloon. They found him safe and sound.

 
Comment by Olympiagal
2009-10-15 16:57:52

He was never on board the balloon. They found him safe and sound.

Then bring on the beatings!
Of everybody involved—just in case.

 
 
 
 
Comment by Hwy50ina49Dodge
2009-10-15 15:23:58

What, no more smartas$ remarks?

Comment by Hwy50ina49Dodge
2009-10-15 15:35:39

“He said the boy apparently has been in the attic the whole time.” ;-)

Dad =1
Rest of America = 0

Comment by Hwy50ina49Dodge
2009-10-15 15:38:00

(assuming it’s not a publicity stunt). :-)

Those sort of folks don’t do Wife Swap…

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Comment by mikey
2009-10-15 16:23:57

Sheesh…I made it to an empty C-130 in Nam and never got the damned thing off the ground but I think I was 3 sheets to the wind.

:)

 
 
Comment by Olympiagal
2009-10-15 12:42:05

“Yummy! Fla. gators sliced and diced for meals”
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/33323482/ns/us_news-life/

Last year, Wood had about $1.2 million in sales, 70 percent from alligator meat, which generally goes for up to $9 a pound.
The hides, too, were once valuable, used by high-end retailers such as Prada and Gucci for purses, handbags, belts and wallets.
But with the economic downturn , the values have plummeted, Wood said.
Just two years ago, hides were going for $57 a foot, mainly to overseas buyers. That dropped to about $44 per foot last year. Now, practically nothing.
“I have 800 hides I have not been able to sell,” Wood said.

Well, that just bites. HAHAHAHAHAAH!

…Sorry. I couldn’t help it.

Comment by wmbz
2009-10-15 12:48:02

On another note… Peter Cotton Tail, no longer hoping down the bunny trail…

Burning bunnies helps keep people warm and cozy
Thu Oct 15, 2009

STOCKHOLM (Reuters) - Forget bunny boiling jealous rages and rapacious butchers. The biggest threats to Peter Rabbit’s Swedish cousins are the cold, the cull and their flammable cadavers.

The city of Stockholm shoots thousands of wild rabbits spread across the green spaces of the Swedish capital and sends their bodies to be burned as heating fuel, a practice which has enraged animal rights groups.

City official Mats Freij said Stockholm killed 6,000 wild rabbits last year and has culled 3,000 so far this year, but said a subcontractor decided to use the cadavers as fuel.

“One should put this in the perspective that we (humans) are actually cremated ourselves and that generates a completely different reaction,” Freij said in response to criticism.

Animal Rights Sweden spokeswoman Lise-Lott Alsenius questioned whether the practice was humane or ethical and suggested neutering the male rabbits as an alternative method of holding down the population.

“One at least has to evaluate what the alternatives are to just simply shooting them,” she said.

Konvex, the company handling the operation, said the rabbits were ground up with the cadavers of other beasts, mainly farm animals such as cows which have been deemed unfit for human consumption, reduced to flammable form and incinerated.

“Just as with us people … the bodies contain a lot of fat and fat has exactly the same energy content as normal heating oil for instance,” Konvex Chief Executive Leo Virta said.

Comment by Olympiagal
2009-10-15 12:55:46

Really? Bunnies are flammable? Who knew? I’m kinda gobsmacked about this.
I’m not gobsmacked about eating alligators, though. I always wanted to eat one of those, or at least take a nibble. Hey! HBBers, how does it taste? I’m sure someone knows. And don’t say ‘like chicken’, either, unless it really does taste like chicken.

Comment by Jon
2009-10-15 14:10:47

I’ve eaten alligator, being a florida boy and all. Tastes very similar to frog legs, but a little more chewy.

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Comment by Olympiagal
2009-10-15 14:43:46

Tastes very similar to frog legs….

AHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH!!!!!!!

*wild scream of horror! *

 
 
Comment by mikey
2009-10-15 14:43:08

I’ll take a German girl and her well made hassenpfeffer over gator any day of the week.

Save the bunnies…cook the crocs( I know..I know )

:)

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Comment by Olympiagal
2009-10-15 14:57:08

I’ll take a German girl and her well made hassenpfeffer over a gator any day of the week.

Why not combine the two? Into one living breathing mostly-human being who:
– has big white teeth.
– superlative cooking/brewing skills.
– likes to roll in the mud.
– thinks chasing people in the dark is funny, whether or not they get away. That’s good, clean fun!
– believes that Chihuahuas look like pretty good hors de oeuvres, although maybe for a less-formal gathering, since they’d splash out the finger-bowls.
– owns a number of pretty white lace caps inherited from great-aunt Augusta Wilhelmina.

A compelling argument, I should think.
That’s multi-tasking at its very finest. ;)

 
Comment by mikey
2009-10-15 15:34:26

Sure, why not…as long as I’m not the one that has to hurt the bunnies Oly.

;)

 
Comment by Olympiagal
2009-10-15 16:31:49

I don’t want to hurt the bunnies, either. I raised a bunch of bunnies as a lass. Also bunnies are adorable, and I’m a big fan of adorableness. But this position conflicts with my strong desire to eat hassenpfeffer while I’m wearing a lace cap and an starchy apron and maybe yodeling or something.

Sigh. My life is one big conflict between my stomach and my spiritual desire to be enlightened and not think only about eating things.
So far, it’s Spirit: 0 and Stomach: Twenty zillion.

 
Comment by mikey
2009-10-15 16:59:42

German check
dumplings check
hassenpheffer check
yodels check
lace caps check
starchy apron check

Oly, great news. So far you’re running a close tie with Rachael Ann, the wayward little Amish girl. She’s closer but did you buy that little fishing boat yet ?

:)

 
Comment by Olympiagal
2009-10-15 17:22:33

Fish and rain!
Fish and rain!
I love Fish and rain!

…Well, I love rain, anyway. I know that part for sure.
I don’t know if I love fishing, because I’ve never really tried it hard, and never on the salty sea in any case, and I’ve never had a little boat before to play with.
But I will forthwith, and do you know why? because nobody’s buying boats hereabouts, that’s why. I mean, freakin’ nobody, and I live in a very boating town.

Bargains, bargains, hooray! I was gonna buy one last week, I got so excited, and then it started raining and already the price has gone down on craigslist…

It’s a struggle, but I’m going to exhibit patience.

 
Comment by mikey
2009-10-15 18:09:33

Easily excitable…triple check there.

ha ha ha
:)

 
Comment by Olympiagal
2009-10-15 18:46:01

Easily excitable…triple check there.

You!
That’s not on my alligator/German maiden hybrid list.
Therefore I assume you’re talking about YOUR checklist, Mr. “I’m-Going-To-Fall-Off-The-Roof-By-Accident-Tonight-Whilst-Chasing-Some-Bats-And-Playing-With-Halloween-Decorations-Man”.

And we alllll know who I’m talking about, here. :lol:

 
Comment by mikey
2009-10-15 19:52:47

Has temper…erases 3 good checks. Starts over…

huh ?
;)

 
 
 
Comment by packman
2009-10-15 13:42:02

Well - they do have that standard-of-living thing going for them, y’know.

Guess Sweden’s maybe not all that.

 
 
Comment by mikey
2009-10-15 12:54:10

Yup ..you’re delightfully EVIL Olygal.
;)

 
Comment by milkcrate
2009-10-15 13:15:34

Went into a cracker’s office near a swamp once. Had a big bull alligator head mounted above his high-tech desk, where he fiddled with FCOJ (frozen concentrated orange juice) futures all day.
“That’s quite a specimen,” I tell the farmer, eyeballing the reptilian jowls and teeth.
He’s overjoyed. Why why why, “Have you ever seen a Gator head look so good?”
I wait and then can’t help myself.
“The head might of looked better attached to the body.”

————————————————–
I could say that because we were OK friends.
Disclosure: I have boots made from buffalo hide, and a watchband from a lizard’s soft underbelly, so I am no purist… and in effect may have lopped off a head or two myself.

 
 
Comment by cobaltblue
2009-10-15 13:14:41

The agony and the irony -
Democratic speech writer can’t afford health insurance in Massachussetts:

Wendy Button has written for John Edwards, Hillary Clinton, John Kerry, Barack Obama, and Mayor Tom Menino of Boston as well as other national and international leaders, and is working on a book.

“For the first time in my life, I am without health insurance and it is a terrible feeling.

In the past, I paid attention to the health care debate as a speechwriter who prepared speeches, talking points, op-eds, and debate prep material on the topic at different times for John Edwards, Barack Obama, Hillary Clinton and others. Now, I’m paying attention because I’m a citizen up the creek without a paddle.

Throughout my life, I have been very lucky because my insurance has always been there whenever I had a crisis. When my 10-speed hit a patch of leftover winter sand, and I went flying into a telephone pole, it covered the x-rays and stitches and concussion diagnosis. When a half a ton of sheet rock fell on me, my insurance paid for the cast on my foot. When my depression kicked in and I was hospitalized and painting ceramic pieces in art therapy to boost my self-esteem (sheesh), it made sure that when I got home my medical bills didn’t make me reach for a razor. And when there were growths in my uterus, it covered that medical procedure and every regular check-up, lab test, broken bone, sports injury, and antibiotic prescription in between.

Since I care more about my country than my personal pride, here’s how I lost my insurance: I moved. That’s right, I moved from Washington, D.C., back to Massachusetts, a state with universal health care.

In D.C., I had a policy with a national company, an HMO, and surprisingly I was very happy with it. I had a fantastic primary care doctor at Georgetown University Hospital. As a self-employed writer, my premium was $225 a month, plus $10 for a dental discount.

In Massachusetts, the cost for a similar plan is around $550, give or take a few dollars. My risk factors haven’t changed. I didn’t stop writing and become a stunt double. I don’t smoke. I drink a little and every once in a while a little more than I should. I have a Newfoundland dog. I am only 41. There has been no change in the way I live my life except my zip code — to a state with universal health care.

Massachusetts has enacted many of the necessary reforms being talked about in Washington. There is a mandate for all residents to get insurance, a law to prevent insurance companies from denying coverage because of a pre-existing condition, an automatic enrollment requirement, and insurance companies are no longer allowed to cap coverage or drop people when they get sick because they forgot to include a sprained ankle back in 1989 on their application.

Even if the economy was strong and I was working more, I still couldn’t afford my premium. I am not alone; I’ve got 46 million friends in a similar situation. We wake up every day worried that a bad cough, an accident while walking the dog, or that dreaded pain on the right side of the abdomen will send us into complete financial ruin.”

Comment by Arizona Slim
2009-10-15 15:34:31

Massachusetts has enacted many of the necessary reforms being talked about in Washington. There is a mandate for all residents to get insurance, a law to prevent insurance companies from denying coverage because of a pre-existing condition, an automatic enrollment requirement, and insurance companies are no longer allowed to cap coverage or drop people when they get sick because they forgot to include a sprained ankle back in 1989 on their application.

Yeah, but there’s no public option in MA. The only option you have is to choose among the insurance company sharks that peddle their wares in MA.

 
Comment by Eddie
2009-10-15 16:25:14

I pay $193 a month for my health insurance, including dental. $1500 deductible. Anyone wanna bet her Strabucks bill is more than $193 a month?

Comment by Professor Bear
2009-10-15 21:21:44

You misspelled Strawbucks.

 
 
 
Comment by ET-Chicago
2009-10-15 14:02:29

More trouble for the Chicago Spire’s developer …

Spire developer faces eviction from sales center site
By: Thomas A. Corfman Oct. 14, 2009

(Crain’s) — The owner of NBC Tower has sued to evict Irish developer Garrett Kelleher’s firm from the riverfront skyscraper, where Shelbourne Development Group Inc. has a lavish sales center for the stalled Chicago Spire project.

Shelbourne, which leases the entire 18th floor in the 36-story building, hasn’t paid rent since April 1 and owes more than $316,000, according to a complaint filed in Cook County Circuit Court by a partnership that owns the building.

If Shelbourne is evicted, the firm could lose much of its $10-million investment in the sales center, which includes a fully built-out model, conference rooms and meeting areas.

The eviction suit is another sign of financial strain for Mr. Kelleher’s once-glittering plan to build a 2,000-foot skyscraper on a site along the north bank of the Chicago River, west of North Lake Shore Drive.

Link

 
Comment by Professor Bear
2009-10-15 14:16:40

Southern California Home Prices Fall on Foreclosures (Update2)
By Daniel Taub

Oct. 13 (Bloomberg) — Southern California house and condominium prices fell 11 percent in September from a year earlier as foreclosures dominated sales, MDA DataQuick said.

The median price dropped to $275,000 from $308,500 a year earlier, the San Diego-based research company said today in a statement. The number of homes sold rose 5.1 percent from a year earlier to 21,539 in Los Angeles, Riverside, San Diego, Ventura, San Bernardino and Orange counties.

Transactions involving houses or condominiums that had been foreclosed on at some point in the past year accounted for 40 percent of all home sales in Southern California last month, MDA DataQuick said. That was down from almost 42 percent in August and a record of almost 57 percent in February.

“It’s still abnormally high, but down significantly from the peak levels,” Andrew LePage, an MDA DataQuick analyst, said in an interview.

 
Comment by Professor Bear
2009-10-15 14:20:36

Foreclosures rise from summer to fall as jobless overwhelms Fed efforts
By ALAN ZIBEL, AP Real Estate Writer
Thursday, October 15, 2009

WASHINGTON — The number of households caught up in the foreclosure crisis rose more than 5 percent from summer to fall as a federal effort to assist struggling borrowers was overwhelmed by a flood of defaults among people who lost their jobs.

The foreclosure crisis affected nearly 938,000 properties in the July-September quarter, compared with about 890,000 in the prior three months, according to a report released Thursday by RealtyTrac Inc.

That puts foreclosure-related filings on a pace to hit about 3.5 million this year, up from more than 2.3 million last year.

Unemployment is the main reason homeowners are falling into trouble.
While the economy is likely out of recession, the unemployment rate — now at a 26-year high of 9.8 percent — isn’t expected to peak until the middle of next year.

Mortgage companies sometimes allow unemployed homeowners to defer three to six months of payments while they are looking for a job. But there’s little else they can do.

“The sheer scale of the problem is preventing the loan modification programs from having the kind of impact we’d all like,” said Rick Sharga, RealtyTrac’s senior vice president for marketing.
Last week, the Obama administration hailed a milestone in its mortgage relief effort, reporting that 500,000 homeowners have received help since the program was launched in March.

But new defaults are still exceeding the number of borrowers getting help.

 
Comment by Professor Bear
2009-10-15 14:22:07

Nevada Leads Parade Of Foreclosures
2:12 pm
October 15, 2009
NPR foreclosure map.

The dark red out West spells trouble. Click to launch NPR’s county map of foreclosures. (NPR)

By Laura Conaway

Foreclosure filings rose by 5 percent in the third quarter of this year, reports RealtyTrac, which deals in foreclosed properties. Filings were up by 23 percent from the same period in 2008.

One in every 136 U.S. housing units received a foreclosure filing during the quarter — the highest quarterly foreclosure rate since RealtyTrac began issuing its report in the first quarter of 2005.

From August to September, foreclosures slowed by 4 percent — and were still high enough to make September’s the third highest total since RealtyTrac starting keeping the numbers in January 2005.

NPR keeps a county-level map of foreclosures. Nevada led the pack among states, with one in every 23 housing units getting foreclosure papers last quarter. Arizona and California followed, each with one in every 53 homeowners getting a notice.

Comment by sleepless_near_seattle (ok, spokane today)
2009-10-15 16:05:01

Hey, isn’t that the reverse of the election results?!

 
 
Comment by Eddie
2009-10-15 16:22:51

Another sign of the great depression that is just around the corner.
Google beats estimates by a mile. Earnings up 27%, revenue up 14%.

Comment by edgewaterjohn
2009-10-15 17:28:14

The proper lure to use when bear baiting is a bucket filled with stale jelly donuts. Just sayin’.

 
Comment by Professor Bear
2009-10-15 18:50:34

Cool! I guess the dot com bust was just a big hoax. Next thing you know, the NASDAQ will be back above 5000 again, and the economy will be humming again like it was back in Y2K!

 
Comment by Professor Bear
2009-10-15 21:20:14

The other great part of this news: If Google is flying high, the economy is clearly in recovery. Hence there is absolutely no need going forward for the Fed to prop up the FIRE sectors with zero interest loans and all manner of taxpayer-financed guarantees any longer. They can take away all the life support systems with the assurance the economy is safely on a rip-roaring path to full recovery.

 
 
Comment by Reuven
2009-10-15 16:55:23

Greetings from Beijing! Just waking up for the first day of sightseeing. So far so good–the hotel we picked via “TripAdvisor” (#1 rated according to them) has turned out to be excellent:

http://www.flickr.com/photos/tppllc/sets/72157622464701383/

Comment by yensoy
2009-10-15 22:59:10

Looks great! Having fun with your fisheye eh :-)

Comment by Reuven
2009-10-16 01:30:59

The fisheye is great for interior shots. I use that lens all the time.

 
 
 
Comment by Muggy
2009-10-15 17:34:42

Late in the day, crazy busy — anyone post this yet?

It’s the end of the world!

http://img.timeinc.net/time/daily/2009/0910/brpostcard_1019.jpg

http://www.time.com/time/magazine/article/0,9171,1929221,00.html

Comment by yensoy
2009-10-15 23:07:23

In response to this and the earlier post about Dubai World firing 15% of the workers: any bets who will be fired - the natives or the foreigners? You got it right, they will fire the underpaid hardworking Indians first because of course the natives cannot be fired. That’s going to really help fix their problems.

 
 
Comment by neuromance
2009-10-15 18:06:43

Fabulous housing propaganda. The author’s friend’s friend’s realtor purportedly sent her a breathless email squealing about how the housing bubble is back! And you better get on board or be left behind.

One of the most basic rules in marketing. Make people think they can’t have something, and they’ll want it more.

Also, fantastic journalism: Author’s -> Friend’s -> Friend’s -> Realtor is the purported source. Enjoy:

We mentioned this a week ago, though this story has been kind of flying under the radar: The housing bubble is back.

But back to Katie. Her Realtor, who is also an old friend, emailed Katie the following warnings before her arrival on the Vegas strip:

- This market is crazy and many things are just not going to make any sense.
- I can guarantee you 99.99% of the listings emailed to you will no longer be available by the time you get here.
- Properties are selling in the blink of an eye.
- Properties are getting multiple offers within a few days of being on the market, the most offers I’ve heard a house had recently was 44 offers (I know, crazy).
- This market is crazy and many things are just not going to make any sense.
- 40% of all transactions are cash purchases, which makes it harder for the buyers who are financing to get their offers accepted.
- We have 1/2 the inventory we had a year ago and 4 times as many buyers as we did a year ago.
- Chances are we will have to submit several offers to have the chance of getting 1 accepted.
- This market is crazy and many things are just not going to make any sense.
- You will probably leave not knowing if you have a house or not because banks take 2 to 3 weeks to respond, because this market is crazy… you know the rest.

Is this just realtor puffery? Possible. But this fits with other anecdotal evidence people are seeing. Foreclosureville markets are going crazy again.

Uh huh. I guess after the FIRE industries realized how many trillions they could squeeze out of the Federal treasury, I guess they think anything’s possible. So why not pretend the bubble’s back?

http://finance.yahoo.com/tech-ticker/article/354857/Seriously-Folks-the-Housing-Bubble-Is-Back

 
Comment by Professor Bear
2009-10-15 18:55:50

Whoever gets the timing right on the end of dollar debasement will make a killing by shorting the US stock market…

Market Snapshot

Oct. 15, 2009, 7:03 p.m. EDT
Earnings season proves dicey gamble for short sellers
In Thursday trading, stocks turn higher late in session as oil refiners gain

By Laura Mandaro, MarketWatch

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) — Third-quarter earnings season is proving precarious for short sellers, who are fighting a swell of investor optimism that’s driving the broader market to new highs.

On Thursday, Harley-Davidson Inc. (HOG 27.63, -0.06, -0.22%) shares gained 5.5% even after the motorcycle maker’s profit fell 84% and results excluding special charges missed expectations. Read more on Harley.

The rise in Harley shares — some 17% of which are shorted — illustrates the precarious nature of betting against an individual stock in the current environment, according to Doug Noland, lead portfolio manager of Federated Investors’ $1.3 billion Prudent Bear Fund (BEARX 5.64, -0.02, -0.35%) .

“We don’t like the risk-reward of being short fundamentally weak companies going into the earnings season, because even if they miss earnings [estimates], investors may look past that and the stock goes up anyway,” he said.

Comment by yensoy
2009-10-15 22:50:13

If there’s one lesson to be learnt from all the past bubbles, it is that Dollar Debasement / Stock Market Priming will go on for much longer than one would expect. Yes it will come to an end, but few will have the stomach to sit on cash while USD falls and the Dow rises. It’s going to be not unlike the good folks here sitting out the housing bubble in 2005, 2006 & 2007 wondering when the bubble would burst.

 
 
Comment by Professor Bear
2009-10-15 21:51:42

So long as the US stock market continues to rally and Wall Street bankers are banking record compensation, I don’t understand why the slide in the dollar is any concern?

Home » Opinion » Commentary

Friday, October 16, 2009
Dollar is a national security issue

Role as currency of choice delivers substantial benefits to U.S.

By Gregory Zerzan

Recently China, Russia, Brazil and other nations with large U.S. dollar investments have called for eliminating the dollar’s pre-eminent position as the world’s reserve currency. This sentiment was supported by a United Nations’ panel, and some oil-producing countries have also started moving away from the greenback. The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries is discussing a general retreat from the dollar as the principle currency for international oil commerce.

World Bank President Robert B. Zoellick, a former U.S. Treasury official, has warned that the dollar’s place in the global economy cannot be taken for granted. These developments should be of grave concern to U.S. policymakers. Printing the world’s currency of choice delivers substantial benefits to America, and losing that status would cause serious harm. Most fundamentally, diminishing the dollar’s importance is a threat to American national security.

Comment by hip in zilker
2009-10-16 07:17:12

Halliburton pays their rent in Dirhams?

 
 
Comment by Professor Bear
2009-10-15 21:54:00

Why can’t the rest of the world get on board with the CNBC happy talkers?

Middle East & Israel Breaking News » Business News » Commentary » Article
Oct 15, 2009 21:44 | Updated Oct 15, 2009 21:55
Global Agenda: Dodo dollar?
By PINCHAS LANDAU

The US dollar is in the grips of a serious crisis. Its value is dropping almost daily against most major and even many minor currencies around the world, and calls for its replacement as the global reserve currency are being made, openly and often by quite senior public figures - also on a near-daily basis. But any objective examination of the state and prospects of the US economy provides ample evidence to support the idea of a dollar decline and the growing enthusiasm to dethrone it - at least, that is, until the alternatives are considered.

On Thursday, for example, Daisuke Uno said the dollar might fall to a rate of 50 yen next year, compared to its current level close to 90 yen, which is already very low by historical standards. Mr. Uno’s opinion is not irrelevant, if only because he is the “chief strategist” of Mitsui Sumitomo Banking Corp, Japan’s third-largest bank.

“The US economy will deteriorate into 2011 as the effects of excess consumption and the financial bubble linger,” Uno was quoted by Bloomberg as saying, adding that the “dollar’s fall won’t stop until there’s a change to the global currency system.” Although the rationale quoted is couched in terms of fundamental economic analysis, the full article gives the impression that Uno is basing himself primarily on technical analysis - or perhaps he uses both, as indeed he should.

 
Comment by Professor Bear
2009-10-15 21:57:22

Speaking of overdue corrections, isn’t the perennial October US stock market crash due any day now?

Suggesting that stocks “powered” oil towards large gains is the stupidest idea I have read in a long time.

Oil up to year high above $78 on dollar, inventories
Fri Oct 16, 2009 8:52am IST

By Jennifer Tan

SINGAPORE (Reuters) - Oil rose for a seventh session to a one-year high above $78 a barrel on Friday, after an unexpectedly steep drop in U.S. oil product stocks and further weakness for the dollar.

Year highs for U.S. stocks also helped oil power toward its best week of gains in nearly two months, even though investors were disappointed by results from top U.S. banks Goldman Sachs and Citigroup.

The release of U.S. September industrial production and capacity utilization data, and a report on consumer sentiment for October, will offer more insight into the strength of the world’s largest economy and top oil user.

U.S. crude for November delivery rose 48 cents to $78.06 a barrel by 0215 GM (10:15 p.m. EDT on Thursday)T, after settling $2.40 higher at $77.58 on Thursday. London Brent crude was up 40 cents at $76.63.

Oil is headed for a gain of 8.75 percent this week, and is its longest winning streak since July, but there are some worries about how long the rally can be sustained.

“A correction is on the cards. I would expect profit taking to set in next week, and oil to retreat to the mid- to low-$70s,” said Ben Westmore, commodities analyst with the National Australia Bank.

 
Comment by Professor Bear
2009-10-15 22:00:31

I like what AG said about “too-big-to-fail” companies.

Greenspan not worried about latest dollar slide
Thu Oct 15, 2009 9:21am EDT

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan said on Thursday he was not too worried about the latest bout of selling in the U.S. dollar, which recently hit a 14-month low.

“I am not overly concerned,” Greenspan said at a Council on Foreign Relations meeting.

But he said that, longer term, government budget deficits would likely be even bigger than current record estimates. He added that the deficits would continue to put downward pressure on the currency and upward pressure on borrowing costs.

“It will begin to affect the yield on long-term interest rates,” he said.

Asked about the problem of firms that are considered too large to fail, Greenspan: “If they are too big to fail, they’re too big.

 
Comment by Professor Bear
2009-10-15 22:05:08

This doesn’t cut it in my book. When will the pitchforks and the tar and feathers come into play to give the subprime mortgage lending kingpins what they truly deserve?

* BUSINESS
* OCTOBER 16, 2009

Czar Blocks BofA Chief’s Pay
Lewis to Return $1 Million as U.S. Objects to Retirement Deal; Feinberg Flexes Muscle

BY DEBORAH SOLOMON AND DAN FITZPATRICK

WASHINGTON—The Treasury Department’s pay czar pushed outgoing Bank of America Corp. Chief Executive Kenneth D. Lewis into giving back about $1 million he received so far this year and forgoing the rest of his $1.5 million salary for 2009, say people familiar with the matter.

The move makes Mr. Lewis the biggest target so far of Kenneth Feinberg, the Treasury’s “special master” for compensation. He also asked that Mr. Lewis pass up any 2009 bonus from the Charlotte, N.C., bank.

 
Comment by Professor Bear
2009-10-15 22:09:11

Is anyone keeping score on how many low-income households have been driven into foreclosure and bankruptcy thanks to the efforts of the likes of Barney Frank and Chris Dodd to support “affordable housing” policy?

* The Wall Street Journal
* OPINION
* OCTOBER 15, 2009, 9:55 P.M. ET

Barney Frank, Predatory Lender
Almost two-thirds of all bad mortgages in our financial system were bought by government agencies or required by government regulations.

By PETER J. WALLISON

Recent reports that the Federal Housing Administration (FHA) will suffer default rates of more than 20% on the 2007 and 2008 loans it guaranteed has raised questions once again about the government’s role in the financial crisis and its efforts to achieve social purposes by distorting the financial system.

The FHA’s function is to guarantee mortgages of low-income borrowers (the mortgages are then sold through securitizations by Ginnie Mae) and thus to take reasonable credit risks in the interests of making mortgage credit available to the nation’s low-income citizens. Accordingly, the larger than normal losses that will result from the 2007 and 2008 cohort could be justified by Barney Frank, the chairman of the House Financial Services Committee, as “policy”—an effort to ease the housing downturn through the application of government credit. The FHA, he argued, is buying more weak mortgages in order to help put a floor under the housing market. Eventually, the taxpayers will have to judge whether this policy was justified.

Far more interesting than the FHA’s prospective losses on its 2007 and 2008 book are the agency’s losses on its 2005 and 2006 guarantees, when the housing bubble was inflating at its fastest rate and there was no need for government support. FHA-backed loans during those years also have delinquency rates between 20% and 30%. These adverse results—not the result of a “policy” effort to shore up markets—pose a significant challenge to those who are trying to absolve the U.S. government of responsibility for the financial crisis.

 
Comment by Professor Bear
2009-10-15 22:15:56

Question for those who know: Is it possible for individual US households to borrow from the Fed at zero percent interest rates and invest the proceeds in Treasurys paying positive rates of return?

If not, then what is the reason that banks get special lending privileges, especially the banks that threw billions and billions of dollars away on subprime loans?

I would like to see in writing the legal justification for the Fed’s lending programs to Megabank, Inc. I personally believe it is illegal, but I will reserve judgment if anyone can provide written legal evidence to contradict my position.

The Wall Street Journal

The Banking System Is Still Broken
Borrow from the Federal Reserve at zero and lend to Treasury for a profit. That’s some racket.

By ANN LEE

Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner and Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke have announced that the recession is over. Now that the Dow Jones Industrial Average has broken the 10,000 mark, we’ll surely be hearing assurances that economic growth is here to stay. But the credit markets are in much worse shape than some indicators suggest.

First of all, not all U.S. banks are created equal. A few multinational banks such as Citigroup are officially too big to fail. Credit spreads in the markets reflect the relatively risk-free nature of these large companies, which now have implicit government guarantees.

But this protection doesn’t apply to smaller banks, some of which are being shut down by the FDIC without much media attention. These smaller banks have done most of the lending to the many small and medium-sized enterprises that do the bulk of the hiring in our economy. They’ve now had to cut off the flow of credit to their clients.

According to Automatic Data Processing Inc.’s August employment report, large businesses shed 60,000 jobs, and employment at medium-sized and small businesses declined by 116,000 and 122,000, respectively, in August alone. Small businesses, defined as employing anywhere from one to 49 people, account for 48 million jobs in the U.S., and medium-sized businesses, between 50 and 499 employees, account for 42 million jobs. Large businesses account for just 17 million. Without access to capital, these small and medium-sized businesses will continue to lay off their employees, creating a vicious cycle of shrinking consumer credit and demand.

The volume of overall bank lending has not returned to pre-crisis levels. While credit spreads have contracted, not much debt has been underwritten. In fact, banks that received government bailout money reduced their average loan balance by $54 billion in July, compared to the previous month, according to the Treasury’s Capital Purchase Program Monthly Lending report.

The first reason for this slowdown in lending is that underwriting standards have risen across the board, making it much more difficult for businesses to obtain loans. Institutional investors no longer tolerate the easy loans so characteristic of this latest credit bubble. Banks are now also being asked to retain a portion of any loans they underwrite in order to align their interests with their investors. As a result, credit has scaled back dramatically. According to reports issued by the major rating agencies, in 2007 $700 billion of asset-backed securities were underwritten. Only $10 billion has been issued in 2009. This has a significant knock-on effect across every sector of the economy.

The banks have no incentive to lend. Most of them still have a significant amount of bad loans sitting on their books that they don’t want to recognize as nonperforming. If the banks recognize these bad loans, all the write-offs may force them into bankruptcy. Instead, they hope that over time renegotiated loan terms will eventually allow the borrowers to make their payments. This ordeal could last at least a decade if this cycle is similar to other crises, like Japan’s lost decade of the 1990s. As the fed funds rate goes to zero and existing loans in technical default continue to sit in bank portfolios, why should banks make new loans when they can make money for free with the government? There is no longer a stigma associated with borrowing from the Fed, so banks can earn a huge spread by borrowing virtually unlimited amounts for nothing and lending that same money back to the Treasury.

Wall Street will most definitely get richer again. But a return to easy credit for the average consumer and business is not likely in the near future. The only reason that credit spreads have tightened is because of the extraordinary interventions by the Fed and the Treasury.

Such unprecedented actions by the government have led to speculation over when inflation might get out of control. But why not question whether our current banking system actually makes any sense? Rather than giving capital to businesses with real products and services, Wall Street plays a government-backed shell game, enriching bankers’ pockets at everyone else’s expense.

 
Comment by Professor Bear
2009-10-15 22:34:37

Goldman managers discover that if they give lots of employees the hatchet job, there is more dough to to fund the survivors’ compensation packages.

Why can’t the American people vote on Wall Street bankster pay? I vote for tar and feathers, with pitch forks for good measure.

The Financial Times
Public anger to rein in top Goldman bonuses
By Greg Farrell in New York

Published: October 15 2009 22:56 | Last updated: October 15 2009 23:11

Goldman Sachs acknowledged on Thursday that public anger about Wall Street’s bonus culture will constrain how much it will pay the top five executives of the bank, whose compensation has to be disclosed publicly.

The comments by David Viniar, chief financial officer, during a conference call to discuss Goldman’s $3.2bn third-quarter profits is a concession that the bank’s end-of-year bonus decisions will be affected by politics.

So far this year Goldman has set aside $16.7bn for compensation and benefits, nearly as much as the $16.9bn it put away by the third quarter of 2007, when rewards reached record levels and Lloyd Blankfein, chief executive, earned $70m.

Because the bank’s headcount this year is about the same as two years ago, compensation is on track to match that of 2007, when Goldman employees received $661,000 each on average.

 
Comment by Professor Bear
2009-10-15 22:39:38

The Financial Times
Public needs more bank for its buck

Published: October 15 2009 22:05 | Last updated: October 15 2009 22:05

Strong third-quarter results make this a good week for bankers’ bonuses: Goldman Sachs set aside $5.35bn, almost one-half of revenues, for compensation. Stay tuned for another swell of public outrage.

The FT is usually content to treat bonuses as a matter best left to a company’s owners and its employees to work out. But in the case of banks, the public has two good reasons to be annoyed.

After massive government bailouts, banks are still enjoying government guarantees, implicit if not explicit. Policymakers have, moreover, slashed the cost of liquidity. Bankers’ handsome compensation is, therefore, in large part underwritten by public money. Second, even before the crisis, inadequate competition failed to whittle away large profits – as enormous returns on equity showed – and therefore outsize compensation, unlike in other industries.

This is damaging to the public interest, even though many bankers do important and even vital work. Before the crisis, the financial sector gobbled up an increasing share of corporate profits in many countries. But rewarding what should be an intermediation industry with more and more of national output is a sign of an economy’s waste, not its efficiency.

 
Comment by Novusordoseclorum
2009-10-16 04:22:19

Pensions: Don’t worry. Keep the payouts constant and just inflate the currency into oblivion. You will still get your $2000/month but it will only buy a couple loaves of bread. Just ask the Russian 120 Ruble-month pensioners from 1985. When they collapsed the old people sold their medals in a huge flea market at Moscow’s football stadium and/or drank themselves to death. Average life expectancy in Russia dropped about 8 years. You can’t eat McMansions.

Goldman: Annuit Coeptis. They will continue to rule. Get over it. John Crudele has been documenting this well for a year. Golden Rolodex Effect.

Housing: Q3 was a record foreclosure period. Get ready for the second leg down. The banks can only hold supply back until the next quarter.

E Pluribus Unum: NYC is filling with Chinese speculators who want to buy properties and use them as a pretext to immigrate 50 of their friends. They dont want our T-bills anymore, especially when they can get $40k/person for US citizenship papers. Nice and polite until they take over the neighborhood. Local and global observation. Not much tolerance for slackers. Like it.

Weather: This will be a cold, dangerous winter. Asian speculators are already gearing up to jack up prices. Maybe we can finally change the ecology discussion from Global Warming to conservation. I love how Green politics did not take off until someone showed Goldman how they could profit from Cap and Trade.

Geopolitics: IDF will land and take out Iran’s Bushehr plant via suicide special forces. The sub-based infantry /air attack will hit in January will freak out global markets as Iran takes out a bunch of Kuwaiti tankers in retaliation.

TRIVIA: 1 Dollar bill- look at the shield frame around the top right corner of the “1″. A tiny owl sits on the top left side of the shield. Neat trick to show the kids.

Masonry: does anyone know when they are going to elevate Brother Obama to 33rd Degree?

 
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