Bits Bucket For October 23, 2009
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The Housing Bubble
Examining the home price boom and its effect on owners, lenders, regulators, realtors and the economy as a whole.
October 23, 2009
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Pg.1 The State Paper, S.Carolina. If it were anything but cheer leading it would have been buried.
Breaking News
Friday, Oct. 23, 2009
Strong rebound seen for home sales.
AP Real Estate
WASHINGTON — With homebuyers rushing to complete their purchases before a tax credit for first-time owners expires, a report Friday is expected to show strong September sales.
Home resales are expected to show an almost 5 percent increase to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.35 million, up from 5.1 million in August, according to economists polled by Thomson Reuters. If the report meets forecasts it would be the best month for home sales in more than two years.
The National Association of Realtors’ report is scheduled for 10 a.m. EDT.
The sales jump, however, could be far larger than Wall Street expects, according to a monthly survey of 1,500 real estate agents for Campbell Communications, a research firm. That’s because foreclosure sales are booming in cities like Los Angeles, San Diego and Las Vegas.
“There’s a mini-boom going on in the housing market,” said Thomas Popik, who conducted the survey for Campbell and expects a double-digit increase.
First-time homebuyers and investors are snapping up those homes and taking advantage of low mortgage rates. These buyers can also take advantage of a tax credit of 10 percent of the sales price, up to $8,000, if the deal is completed by the end of November.
The tax credit is so important to some buyers that they are adding a clause to their contracts, allowing them to back out if the sale doesn’t close by Nov. 30.
While home sales and housing construction have risen steadily after hitting bottom earlier this year, most economists believe that the worst isn’t over for home values. In August, the median price was $177,700, down from the peak of $230,300 in July 2006, but still above the bottom of $164,800 in January, according to the Realtors group.
“In August the median price was $177,000 …”
So a person paying the median price gets an $8,000 discount. That’s a discount that’s somewhere around 4%.
Such a deal.
Lol.
How does that stack up compared to the risk of falling knife losses in excess of $8K? Not very well in CA and FL bubble zones, I am guessing…
“So a person paying the median price gets an $8,000 discount. That’s a discount that’s somewhere around 4%.
Such a deal.
Lol.”
Am I the only person who sees this from a down-payment angle, not a purchase price angle. Sure, the $8k does affect the price, but what it really affects is the ability to buy and any price - the downpayment.
Without the $8k downpayment, demand would drop significantly. house prices would probably fall a lot more than $8k.
So, the impact of the tax credit is on creating the ability for renters to buy a house, where they did not have that ability before.
If you have no downpayment, it doesn’t matter if a house costs $150k or $200k.
(I’ll add…. I oppose the tax credit and most gov’t subsidization of home ownership.
But I have seen this credit create a number of homeowners IN MY AREA OF THE COUNTRY who could not come up with an $8k downpayment otherwise. Around here, buying is cheaper than renting, salaries are low for non-professionals, so saving the downpayment is a big obstical.)
If they cannot save for a down payment, then they really cannot afford to purchase a house. What happens when the heating system fails? How about when some tree roots displace the sewer line, and that needs to be dug up and repaired? Where does the money come for the replacement hot water heater, the broken window, etc., etc.? Most of these people have no business buying houses. Houses are expensive to maintain and repair.
Downpayments are there for a reason! To screen out bad risks.
For example a roof costs $20K (at least — my last one was closer to 30K because I had some other work done). If you can’t save $8K, what are you going to do when you need a new roof, or find termites, or need to take care of a dead tree that’s leaning over you neighbors house, etc.)
We’re talking starter homes here, not upscale housing.
New roof - $2k if you roof over the existing, $4k if you tear off 2 layers of shingles and re-roof. Probably cost a bit less if you get a relative to do it in exchange for some landscaping services next summer.
Getting a tree cut down from a aprefession that requires a lift….. maybe $800. A bit less if you get a “friend” to do it.
There is a lot of bartering amoung “working class” vocationists around here. “I’ll help build your new deck if you install a new furnance for me” type of labor exchange.
Anyway, do FHA mortgage applications really care if you can afford to reroof the house in 3 years?
“For example a roof costs $20K (at least — my last one was closer to 30K because I had some other work done).”
Either you have one fantastic roof, or you got ripped off in unbelievable fashion. A new roof for an average house is most often under $10k, and that includes a full tear off of the existing roof.
Granite roof?
No, and that’s the problem.
Our last roof job last year cost $ 6800 and required extra flashing/a saddle to be formed around the chimney to keep out minute drips which had been coming down for a number of years inside the fireplace, which were too small to be seen until the calcium deposits they were leaving were noticed. That being said, prices in CA are probably double, so $ 20K for a roof on a large place wouldn’t be too surprising.
I’m not arguing that these people can truely afford a house, or that they should be buying a house.
I am saying that the $8,000 Tax Credit provides all of the down-payment they need to get into a house, and then some.
You can buy a decent, small house in a so-so older neighborhood for $85k around here. To get a comperable sized appartment costs a person $700/month.
So the $8k allows a renter making $30k/yr to move from an appartment to a small house (at a lower monthly rate than the appartment - excluding maintenance).
Now, when these young people want to sell the house in 4 years and move to a larger one, that’ll be another story. I suspect they will be trapped like today’s young condo owners are.
I guess what I’m saying can be summed up this way….
The difference in monthly payment between a $198k and a $190k house is pretty small to most people.
The difference between showing up at the closing table with $3k vs $11K(including the tax credit) in your bank account is dramatic.
I think most first-time buyers would much prefer financing an extra $8k for a house if it ment they got an extra $8k up front to help with downpayment/closing/furnishing the place.
And if you take away that $8k tax credit, that $190k house that had just jumped in $198k, probably falls back to $175k due to the decrease in the pool of buyers. If you already have saved your own downpayment, then you would definetely come out way ahead.
Many of us have that ‘I’ll cross that bridge when I come to it” mentality. More commonly known as living on a hope and a prayer……..LOL
“Downpayments are there for a reason! To screen out bad risks.”
Conversely, low-downpayment government guaranteed loans are also there for a reason: To attract poor credit risks into buying homes now that will further enrich Megabank, Inc a few years later when they go into default at ‘higher than expected’ rates after the next leg down on the deflating RE bubble plays out. Since the lender gets made whole on the principle balance of the loan, they can take that taxpayer-financed default insurance claims payment and snap up comparable homes on the cheap if they want…
‘The sales jump, however, could be far larger than Wall Street expects, according to a monthly survey of 1,500 real estate agents for Campbell Communications, a research firm. That’s because foreclosure sales are booming in cities like Los Angeles, San Diego and Las Vegas.
“There’s a mini-boom going on in the housing market,” said Thomas Popik, who conducted the survey for Campbell and expects a double-digit increase.’
This anticipated sales jump is great news, as it would add further evidence that the housing market has recovered, and hence no renewal of the $8K tax credit is warranted.
The 8000 tax xcredit is littered with fraud and should not be extended IMO.
“…littered with fraud…”
Doesn’t that make it all the more appealing to Congress?
We should keep track of which Congress folk support this fraud-ridden REIC scam, so we know whom to vote out of office next election cycle.
I guess it is job security for the irs to go after all the swindlers.
With concerns about the housing market still prominent, Congress is considering several proposals to extend the tax credit for first-time buyers. Senators Johnny Isakson, R-Ga., and Christopher Dodd, D-Conn., want to extend it through June 30, and expand it to include all home buyers, at an estimated cost of $16.7 billion.
One potential roadblock, however, emerged this week. There are concerns that some of the 1.5 million applications for the tax credit are fraudulent.
At a hearing before a House subcommittee Thursday, J. Russell George, the Treasury Department’s inspector general for taxes, questioned the legitimacy of some 100,000 claims for the credit, potentially including some illegal immigrants and 580 people under 18. The youngest taxpayers to apply for the credit were 4 years old, his office said.
While the program has widespread support in Congress, there are growing concerns about the costs. The cause, said Sen. Jack Reed, D-R.I., “is a worthy one.” But “I hope we can find ways to pay for it.”
If I were in the market to buy a house I’d wait until AFTER the tax credit expired. That’s when I’d be in the best bargaining position.
If the seller couldn’t sell with a tax credit then he’d likely have to lower his price more than $8,000.
No house for you, because you are too financially prudent. Megabank, Inc only wants to qualify debtbeats to buy with govt-guaranteed loans, so when they go into default, the bank can collect on the full amount loaned, rather than having to deal with falling-knife collateral.
If I were in the market to buy a house I’d wait until AFTER the tax credit expired. That’s when I’d be in the best bargaining position.
If the seller couldn’t sell with a tax credit then he’d likely have to lower his price more than $8,000.
It’s amazing how many people just don’t get this, and are swayed by the pure emotion of “free money!!!!”, without thinking through the implications. Same as the cash-for-clunkers thing - they’ll spend $30,000 for a new car, including $5,000 in interest on the loan, in order to get a $4,000 credit.
You bring to mind the GPS thread yesterday, where several posters were comment on the ludicrous inflation of sticker prices by several thousand dollars to cover the addition of a GPS. We got ours for under $200…
Same here. We got a new car two years ago - it was about $1,200 to get an in-dash GPS, and we got our Nuvi for $300. It’s even better than in-dash since it’s easier to get map updates, and we can use it in other cars and even walking around town.
I like buying gently used cars.I picked up a pt cruiser recently.I always liked the car but refused to overpay at a dealer.The car runs great an gets about 23 mpg on avg.Costs me 23.00/month to insure it.
“pt cruiser ” Both my daughters have them and lov ‘um. I customized the 2002 with a 40″s like grill and chrome fenders. My wife drives a 2005 convertible turbo dream cruiser, a real peppy get up an go car that’s fun to drive. No problems with any of them.
“It’s amazing how many people just don’t get this, and are swayed by the pure emotion of “free money!!!!”, without thinking through the implications.”
People see prices as being static. If a house costs $300K, then an $8000 tax break and low interest rates make it cheaper. What they fail to realize is that prices are dynamic, and that the same house would cost $200K (or whatever) without tax breaks and unusually low interest rates. They’ll learn this lesson eventually.
So I guess this is the time to buy a car now that the cash for clunkers program has ended.
So I guess this is the time to buy a car now that the cash for clunkers program has ended.
A lot of used cars were taken off the market due to the program, and thus prices went up. Wait a while and yes it will be a good time to buy; a used car at least. For new the analogy to the housing market doesn’t apply - generally new cards don’t compete with used ones much, whereas with homes they do. In the case of C4C - that credit only applies to new cars not used ones, unlike the home credit which applied to both.
Comment by Professor Bear
2009-10-23 06:47:25
>We got ours for under $200
Comment by packman
2009-10-23 06:51:1
>and we got our Nuvi for $300
Man you guys are such luxury spenders!!! I got my TomTom One at $49.99 (refurbished by TomTom) two months ago.
I got my Sony GPS for $100. Great GPS if you like the ’scenic route’.
I want to buy a GPS for my new motorcycle. It’s a dual sport, so I’ll be taking dirt roads, too. There are so many different choices I don’t know where to start.
“There are so many different choices I don’t know where to start.”
Garmin if you want accuracy and don’t mind paying for it.
I have also been told that there are many nice, nice, almost new GPS’s, flat-screen tvs, etc. in the pawn shops. This was supported by an amazing story on the local evening news - classy stuff begging to be picked up, hocked by people up to their eyeballs in debt, or who had unfortunately lost their jobs. If I get a GPS, the pawn shop is the first place I’m looking.
sweet, i have an ‘01 DRZ-400. Ive ridden it over 14,000 miles, mostly in the dirt. What did you get? I have an older Garmin E-trek that works pretty well, but the screen is small and hard to see while dodging trees and cliffs:^)
I bought an 05 XR650L. The bike is basically brand new with only 900 miles on it and $1k in performance aftermarket parts including full exhaust system.
is that an electric start? i do have one pretty major complaint about the Etrex unit…it likes to turn itself off. If the little AA batteries get low (1.3v each), or if they get jostled too much, it shuts off. I hardwired in an external twin “C” battery pack and it is much better and lasts a few rides before needing new cells. On my next unit, i will probably wire it in to the motorcycle and not have to be wondering when it will go dark.
Well of course that only works for you if you CAN come up with some sort of downpayment. That 8k is used AS a downpayment, part of the money that is leveraged at more than 5 to 1 to buy the house. So for the typical imprudent American that 8k allows them to pay another 40k for the house. So prices are likely to fall by MORE than 8k once the tax credit expires.
If you have a pulse cant you get an fha loan from the govt?
arizonadude I think you’re still supposed to come up with what two or three percent down? Certainly there has been much whining and beating of chests about how requireing FHA borrowers to have 5% down would “kill the maket.” Sigh…So that 8k plus another ~8k (which is probably LESS than these people’s CC balance) is enough for closing and a DP.
“If you have a pulse cant you get an fha loan from the govt?”
No Pulse Necessary. See Store for Details.
The beautiful thing about FHA loans is that even if the borrower goes into default, the lender gets made whole. Hence there is really little incentive for lenders to be careful with respect to whom they loan money. In fact, it might be in their interest in some cases to loan to borrowers who are more likely to go into default. For instance, suppose lenders “knew” home prices were likely to drop by another 30 percent+ (as seems likely in many coastal markets formerly known as “a bit frothy”). Wouldn’t it be a clever financial move to make lots of loans on such houses that have a high probability of going into default in a few years, then when they do, using the proceeds of the (taxpayer-funded) FHA insurance claims payments to buy back comparable housing at auction at a 30 percent discount, pocketing the spread?
Or am I missing something in what appears to be yet another government-sponsored giveaway to Megabank, Inc?
“Or am I missing something in what appears to be yet another government-sponsored giveaway to Megabank, Inc?”
I just had a vision of you leading a one man revolution in a new TV mini series, titled “Man Vs. Megabank.”
In fact, it might be in their interest in some cases to loan to borrowers who are more likely to go into default.
Not “might be” - it is in fact in their best interest. The interest rate paid on loans in partly based on the credit score of the borrower, thus the banks make more money from riskier borrowers, in exchange for more risk. However due to our handy-dandy FHA, the risk is now not on the banker’s back at all. So it behooves them to ever-increase their risky lending, for greater profits.
This is exactly why risky lending is pushed; and how we got into this crisis in the first place. The breakdown of the risk-vs-reward equation, by offloading the risk onto taxpayers.
(as most of us HBBers are aware)
WOW
I thought private market securitization was bad, but this is pure evil.
“The beautiful thing about FHA loans…”
What’s more, the lender gets to collect fat interest payments during the early years of the loan. Over and above that, along with down-payments, the government is subsidizing the FHA insurance via the tax credit. So the government isn’t only subsidizing the ultimate loss, it is also paying the insurance on the subsidy.
Wash. Rinse. Repeat. More of the same financial engineering, no change.
“Man you guys are such luxury spenders!!! I got my TomTom One at $49.99 (refurbished by TomTom) two months ago.”
I still just use the sun most of the time!
I still just use the sun most of the time!
And hold up one finger to see which way the wind is blowing.
Or if it is blowing.
Pinch some dirt and let it fall.
make smoke signals out of newly built smoke pit, use shirt to waft over smoke, stamp out shirt, and swear, then just get moving towards the sun. Don’t forget to hollar every now and then. Talk alot as you walk, keeping yourself company. Well, that is how I would do it, if I didn’t have such a great sense of direction since birth.. go down canal, shoot out, scream!
the 8k credit steals renters, creating residential income vacancies.
It’s an implicit wealth transfer from poor renters to well-heeled buyers. But this puts in in line with most of the other real estate subsidies the US has in force. Take the mortgage interest subsidy, for instance: The amount one can deduct scales up with the size of the loan. Thus $1m home owners get much more out of their mortgage interest deduction than do $100,000 home owners.
In the case of the $8K credit, only those sufficiently wealthy and employed get to take the free money. The poor who don’t have the bank and credit to qualify are disqualified. And if you are sufficiently misfortunate to live in Detroit, you may not even qualify for the full $8K even if you are a first-time home buyer. All taken, there is nothing very fair about this wealth transfer program.
Of course to the extant that it allows sellers to sell WITHOUT lowering their price to that which buyers could otherwise pay, it is the sellers who are being subsidized.
Hey, for decades the GSE model worked pretty well because it increased access to credit for those who, for the most part, WERE able to make the payments. The plain vanilla 30yr fixed rate mortgage probably WOULDN’T exist except for the fact that F&F were willing to buy them. But as fraud-y as their accounting has been for the last decade, they generally insisted on actual underwriting of loans. Documented income etc. It wasn’t until the banksters found out that bond buyers would buy any pile of bonds made from crap tranches of pools of crappy loans so long as it had an AAA rating. So Clem the slack-jawed lokel got to live in a mcmansion for a few years, and Grannie’s pension fund has been savaged, and the bankers STILL think they deserve 20 million dollar compensation packages.
Yep, but regarding Detroit, if you want to live there, you can get a full brick house in good shape for about $ 25000. This would include a new roof and rehabbing already done. A lot of investors who grew up in Detroit and have moved away are picking up some for much less than that, and will be renting them out for roughly $ 750. These would be people such as a Cleveland policeman who grew up in Detroit and knows the neighborhood, and is getting 4-5 rentals for his retirement, whom I read about recently on CNNmoney. He had paid $ 6900 for his first rental and was going to spend about $ 10K rehabbing it. People coming in from the outside with no knowlege of the local ins and outs and just throwing money down on rental packages are probably wasting it.
The real entertainment is watching the low-end housing *appreciate* and the nose-bleed - beyond gov’t help high end depreciate at the same time.
Search Topanga Canyon MLS if you’re not convinced.
Eventually all properties everywhere will cost exactly $500,000.
That seems fair.
The collapse of high-end prices into low-end prices is a temporary (disequilibrium) phenomenon, which will resolve itself through a market adjustment process in which the low-end (first-time buyer) homes will drop by over $8K in market value.
Awesome news: The housing market has officially recovered! Buy home builder stocks today, or get priced out forever!! There is no need whatsoever to renew the $8K credit, now that sales are growing strongly again!!!
market pulse
Oct. 23, 2009, 10:00 a.m. EDT
U.s. existing-home sales rise 9.4% to 5.57 million
By Rex Nutting
WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - Resales of U.S. houses jumped 9.4% in September to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.57 million, the highest in more than two years, the National Association of Realtors estimated Friday. Sales as tracked by the NAR are up 24% from January’s bottom, and are up 9.2% compared with a year ago. The median forecast by economists surveyed by MarketWatch looked for a smaller gain to a 5.38 million annual rate from a downwardly revised 5.09 million in August.
…
“The tax credit is so important to some buyers that they are adding a clause to their contracts, allowing them to back out if the sale doesn’t close by Nov. 30.”
Note that the buyers didn’t write the contract to reduce the price by $8,000 if closing doesn’t happen by November 30… they wrote it to cancel the sale altogether. This indicates that buyers can’t afford the house without that credit - since $homeprice and a $8K tax credit (a deal buyers are willing to do) is essentially monetarily equal to $homeprice - $8,000 (a deal buyers are unwilling/unable to do as evidenced by the language of the contract). This is further evidence that if the give-away is not extended, that prices of homes will indeed go down more than $8,000.
My best guess would be that buyers had 8k “gifted” to them by family, and once they get their tax rebate will “gift” it back to the family member. FHA still requires that you bring in 3.5% for down payment, the 8k can’t be used towards down payment, but they do allow for that 3.5% to be a gift from an acceptable source. Easy way around using the 8k for a down is to borrow it from family.
Hi all. I’m in Portland this morning. I like it here. Did Muggy’s wife have the baby yesterday? Is all well?
Good morning!
Baby arrived about 9:40pm. She’s a cutie! There were some complications so it was a c-section but everybody is healthy and doing well. She looks just like her older brother — a matched set : )
And yes, gramps is already asking if we’re going to buy a house now that we ‘need one.’ Lol…
Congrats! We’re done, and we NEED a house, too. Well, about as much as a hole in the cranium at current NYC prices, that is. But little ones make the watching and waiting go by much more quickly! For them, home is where you make it.
Glad to hear …all is well…congrats!
Congrats!!!
Fun time…I remember it well…The best for you and your family Muggy…
Congrats Mugs!
Just tell Gramps that if you rent that’s that much more time you can spend with the kids rather than maintaining the house.
(Coming from someone who knows)
If you need more space - rent a house.
Tell him that if he really wants you to own a house, to buy one and give it to you.
sounds like a win/win solution to me
“If you need more space - rent a house.”
We’re in a SFH 2/1.5 1100 sq. ft. now (yes Eddie, it even has pink tiles in the bathrooms! The HORROR!) so we’re good for a little while. We’ll probably start looking for a new rental in about 3-4 months once the baby stuff has settled and I’m finished with grad school. I am in no hurry to leave because our landlords are amazing, and really nice people + well funded.
If I thought we were going to stay here long-term, I would consider making offers. It’s not crashing like I’d hoped here in Pinellas, but low-balling is no longer flat-out refused.
Congrats to you and your wife, Muggy!
This is wonderful! Congratulations, Muggy, congrat congrats congrats!
I’m so glad everything went well. I’m hoping you won’t be parsimonious with photos like you have been lately. Last night I gargled a toast to your new mini-gal at the Best Dive Bar in the Universe, only I didn’t know her name so I just gestured towards Florida, but I’m sure it arrived.
Another thing: pink tiles in bathrooms are pretty, so there.
“I’m hoping you won’t be parsimonious with photos like you have been lately. ”
I’ll post some later today!
Dammit, this camera thing is driving me batty! First I forgot the USB cable, now I got it, but my camera isn’t compatible with the laptop I have.
We put a man on the moon, FIX IT! /i>
That’s great Muggy.
I worked medicine and their are few things more rewarding than a healthy mom, a newborn baby working it’s little lungs and a still conscious and still standing dad. They are really cute little critters. Enjoy !
I always enjoyed being part of that.
Muggy baby buggy bumpers! Give him a huggy for me. Congrats to you and all other baby recipients today.
oops! give *her* a huggy…
Well, they all look like adorable little wet pink noisy raisins at this point.
It’s okay if you’re not firm on the gender yet.
Hey,
Another Airborne Trooper in the world!!!
Congradulations!!!!
I wanted to be a fighter pilot.
Congrats! Hope mom is well and comfortable?! Send her our congrats. koochi koo to the new girl in town!
Baby arrived about 9:40pm. She’s a cutie!
Congratulations!
Congratulations, Muggy and Blue Skye!
YAY, MUGGY!
I’m so happy for you guys. Couple of lucky little kids there…enjoy the dickens out of them while you can.
Awwww, heck. That’s just so cool. Thanks for the cheery news, dude. And Congrats!
Hey Muggy, congratulations!
Delivery here as well, of a grandaughter.
This Grampa is a happy camper!
I’ll ditto that.
“This Grampa is a happy camper!”
Congrats to you both — I’ve noticed that grandparents seem to be the happiest people around.
Us grampies get the joys without all the hassles.
Plus we get a replay of our child-rearing days, but with a different perspective.
Muggy,
Congrats to you both and the littleman. When does he meet his little sister? What’s her first name?
Stats please?
Congratulations Muggy, congratulations Blue Skye. Enjoy your respective green shoots!
Grandchildren are God’s reward for having survived parenthood.
My middle daughter’s inlaws are hinting for more grandkids.They already have several from their older sons. Daughter can’t afford kids right now. She is the bread winner as hubby has several more years of grad school and has never worked. I just hope he can land a job once he has his PhD in Elizabethan history. Me, I don’t care one way or the other about grandkids as long as I’m not expected to serve as a free taxi and babysitting service.
Fantastic Muggy ….Congrats to you and your wife and family.
A PhD in Elizabethan history. I wonder what the market demand is for that particular credential.
wolfgirl-
“as I’m not expected to serve as a free taxi and babysitting service.”
I have an aquantaince that has a daughter (28yo/married) with 4 little ones, and this gradma sacrificed her second marriage to become the maid, babysister, and taxi for free (6 days/ week). Her husband left her, and they blame him. I told her, and her spoiled daughter to look in the mirror.
“When does he meet his little sister? What’s her first name?
Stats please?”
We probably won’t be going home until the end of the weekend (mom had a rough operation but is o.k.), so littleman will have to wait.
Katherine
7lbs 1oz
20.5 inches
full head of hair and
I love newborns with lots of hair.
Congrats proud papa!
If it’s any consolation to your wife, she should be glad they don’t do C-sections the old way, when they sliced women open like a frikken river trout
… Elizabethan history…
I had previously thought there couldn’t possibly be a more useless degree than the one I’ve got, but now I see I was wrong.
What’s yours, Oly? Business ethics?
Muggy
Katherine, what a great, strong name. (I’m thinking Katharine Hepburn).Great choice. She was a good size baby. I bet she’s a beauty, since she has such a cutie for a big bro. There is something special about a daughter to her daddy. Where do we send the baseball bat?
I hope Mrs. Muggy heals quickly. When she can handle it, give her my virtual hug.
What’s yours, Oly? Business ethics?
Alas, I know nothing whatsoever of either one of those things. Why, I’m just like the FED! Or Goldman Sachs!(Except for the immensely rich/omnipotent part.)
…I’m not gointer tell yer. You’ll all just laugh and mock me.
One of my favorite jokes:
Q. What does an engineering major say?
A. ‘How do we build this thing right?’
Q. What does an accountant major say?
A. ‘How much will it cost?’
Q. What does a liberal arts major say?
A. ‘Would you like fries with that, sir?’
HAHAHAHAH!
…Actually, that’s not that funny.
Oh, wait, yes it is!
HAHAHAHAHAHA!
I hope Mrs. Muggy heals quickly. When she can handle it, give her my virtual hug.
Ditto! And tell her that a whole bunch of HBBers offer loads of congratulations and are also wildly curious about her placenta (thanks, FPSS, for the good idea yesterday) and want to know every little detail of everything.
Unless you think that having a whole bunch of strangers all across the world expressing curiosity about her placenta might freak her out a tad. I can’t imagine why it would, but new moms are funny sometimes…
Okay, then, just pat her gently and praise her for an awesome job.
…I’m not gointer tell yer.
Anthropologic Colloquialisms?
Gotta agree on the “normal” name. I’m tired of Haleys (or the newest: Haighleigh
) and McKenzies and Dylans and Bethanys and Taylors and the like.
. I’m tired of Haleys … and McKenzies and Dylans and Bethanys and Taylors and the like.
What always burns me is the intentional misspelling of traditional names - Tifani, Britney, Kristahl - as if it’s going to make the kid “special” or “unique”. It’s so… trailer-park.
I much prefer the made-up names, like “Tawanda”, or “Akisha” or “Fawnalee”.
At the supermarket a while back, the Employee of the Month was an Ass’t Manager named Tawnee. The picture looked like a perfectly ordinary young grocery store manager. But to me the name sounds stripper or porn actress stage name.
Around here every girl’s name is “Kay-Lee” or “Kay-Leigh” or “Kay-Tee-Leigh” or similar.
oxide-
I’m glad you concur on “normal”, old fashion names. After living in a McMansion yuppie nightmare, those pretentious names get under my skin too.
Too bad Barney Frank, has that first name. It’s blasphemy to the name. Think Mr. Rubble (Flintstones) and Mr. Fife (The Andy Giffith Show). Good character.
Too bad Barney Frank, has that first name. It’s blasphemy to the name. Think Mr. Rubble (Flintstones) and Mr. Fife (The Andy Giffith Show). Good character.
LOL. Well - except for that damn purple dinosaur as well.
We went with traditional family names although youngest daughter does have a slightly unusual middle name that came from my mother. This even though my husband shares the name of a fundamentalist Christian college less than 15 miles away. But he was named for his grandfather not the school or its president.
Congrats, Muggy. For some reason, I never wanted to get married and have kids. The ultimate fear of commitment I suppose. As I’ve gotten older, I’ve found myself daydreaming about how nice it might have been to have a wife and kids- especially since I’ve enjoyed my nephews and niece so much.
Packman,
I’ll email you during the weekend. Can you repeat your email for hbb’ers.
Thanks for the reminder. How could I forget that purple dinosaur,Barney. I only wish I would have thought of it. What an obnoxious money machine that guy was!
And that song:
I love you,
You love me,
We’re a happy family…
Gag me!
I much prefer the made-up names, like “Tawanda”, or “Akisha” or “Fawnalee”.
I have a coworker in FL whose name is…true. I swear. Akwanetta.( as in aqua nett the hair spray!)
And Wolfgirl, is your husbands name Oral, as in oral roberts college? wondrin out loud.
And is Barney short for Barnard?
I don’t think there’s much out there for history Phds right now. Maybe that will change by the time he’s finished, in about 3 years. Fortunately daughter has her master’s in computer science. She’s a programmer, so maybe she will be ok.
SIL is serving as taxi/babysitter for her younger daughter’s two. The older one isn’t too bad except for a crammed schedule.but the 3 year old boy is autistic and almost uncontrollable. I don’t know what will happen when my SIL can’t look after the kids. My niece can’t afford to quit her job and can’t afford to pay for the attention the boy needs without his grandmother. I’m just glad that the niece and I aren’t close enough that I would be asked to step in and help. If a dog can be trained to behave, why can’t a child? The hour I spend in his company was far too long.
autistic and almost uncontrollable.
seriously check out this -I found-
ya hoo groups. Iodine at ya hoo groups dot com.
Lots of interesting data on autism there. ask away. couldn’t hurt.
Sorry this isn’t housing, but couldn’t hurt. It is in food, but we are sorely lacking in the mineral content of our soils, thus foods and more illness/syndromes/disease etc.
My oldest brother may be autistic according to the last I heard several years ago. Sadly I don’t know where he is now.The other two brothers don’t speak to me since I refused to take their side against our stepmother when our father was dying.I would like to know about David but that doesn’t seem likely now. Especially since there is no way I could handle him.It got so no one could.
“Maybe that will change by the time he’s finished, in about 3 years.”
Bwahahaha…oh sorry..
I have my doubts, but what can I do? I’m not even sure what else he would be physically able to do as he has some health issues.
Congrats, Blue.
I want a grandkid too. skip the one in between-to late, but you guys are having all the fun! Where can I get one? Congrats!
I want one, too.
I was really getting quite excited about the prospect, but then Jon churlishly did not answer me a month ago when I inquired about purchasing his lightly used Cuban-American mujere and his prepubescent male offspring, so now I’m sad. I was especially excited about getting a good cooker of Cuban food. Man, that’s great eating.
Thanks a lot, Jon!
Look at me. See? I’m sad.
*makes a sad, Cuban-cooking-less face *
Most happy congratulations to you and your wife, Muggy. I’m so happy for you both ! I remember when the little Mugster was born ! Seems like yesterday.
Congratulations to all of you Muggy.
You too, Blue Skye.
Congrats Muggy!! Sounds like a tough day but am glad you and the significant other came through ok. Hope she heals quickly and you all stay healthy and well.
Makes me puke and scared all at the same time.
Fiscal policy role fuels Frank fund-raising
In nine months, he raises most in Mass. delegation
By Alan Wirzbicki
Globe Correspondent / October 23, 2009
WASHINGTON - Representative Barney Frank’s central role in drafting new regulations for the US financial industry has dramatically boosted his power as a political fund-raiser, helping him increase campaign contributions by almost a third more than at this point in the last election cycle.
Frank raised more in the first nine months of 2009 than any other Massachusetts lawmaker, and more than all but one of his fellow House committee chairmen, according to public disclosure filings.
As chairman of the House Financial Services Committee, Frank was a major player in the $700 billion Wall Street rescue package last year, and is now the point person working on legislation proposed by the Obama administration to prevent another economic crisis like the one that plunged the nation into a recession.
Frank’s place in the thick of economic policy making has made him the focal point for a variety of executives, unions, advocacy groups, and individual supporters who have poured $1.2 million into his campaign account since January. That is 32 percent more than the $907,000 he raised during the same three quarters of his 2007-2008 reelection campaign.
In the same time frame of 2003, before Frank became chairman and when the Democrats were still in the minority in Congress, contributors gave Frank $243,000.
Frank raised record amounts even while observing a self-imposed restriction: He has foresworn money from the nation’s biggest banks, which once were among his top donors. But he has continued to accept money from other firms with interests before his committee, including two Massachusetts-based companies, Fidelity and Liberty Mutual, which were his top corporate donors during the first half of this year, according to the Center for Responsive Politics, a nonprofit group that tracks contributions.
Rest of the article is online at the Boston Globe site
The people who vote this idiot in deserve him. I just wish he didnt have national implications in his decisions. He certainly doesnt represent me….
The main problem is that you never hear anything from the people who run against him. He’ll run a few commercials and get like 70% of the vote. I have never voted for him. Unless he really screws up, he’s in there.
. I have never voted for him. Unless he really screws up, he’s in there.
That’s true of all incombents
He doesn’t represent me, either. Does Barney Fwank represent anybody, or just fannie and Freddie? Please honk if you support Barney…anyone…anyone?
Have you done any spelunking over there lately?
“Have you done any spelunking over there lately?”
Who Stpn2me or Barney Frank
Sorry…
Voters have no say in who is in Congress.
Once they are in its a done deal 92% of the time. And when a spouse dies in office, the other one gets a free ride= no experience…ala bonomack, et al.
Makes me puke and scared all at the same time.
One time long ago I experienced a rare concatenation of events, so that I burped, hiccuped and sneezed all at the exact same time. My head almost a’sploded from the system overload, seriously.
Is that how you feel when you listen to anything Frank says? Add the puke and that’s how IIIII feel, too.
Oly- Ahhh the triumvirate of evil, ha ha ha - sounds very painful.
Yep that’s about how I feel since I live in MA. He is so full of **** and bought and sold hi soul so many times now. Also great fodder for the homophobic crowd as well, sort of how Sarah Palin is to the womans’ movement; the last person I would want to be a public figure to represent homosexuals, or in Palin’s case woman, but I guess politics does make strange bedfellows.
In any case, both make me feel the same way, sort of like I burped, hiccuped, sneezed, puked and farted at the same time….
Oh wait that was the beer(s) I drank last night.
I thought that if you burped, sneezed, and farted at the same time you would die. No?
Almost.
But with Baby Jeebus’ help I pulled through. That was a mighty busy few seconds, though.
No, but the person next to you might.
Wait, I didn’t read your question right, zilky. The farting came at a different time. I sneezed, burped and HICCUPED at the same time, and that was bad enough.
Since we are on the subject… The sensation I hate most is when I get sun burned, have to drop twins off at the pool, and get goosebumps.
*shutter*
Pedantic Man asks: concatenation or combination?
(Who Cares?!- shout his fans)
Oh wait that was the beer(s) I drank last night.
Hey, I drank plennnty of beer last night too, and I didn’t burp, hiccup, sneeze, puke and fart all at the same time!
….I don’t think…
*tries to recall the somewhat hazy details…*
Oh, goshamighty!
Well, I hope I didn’t do it in public!
(Just kidding.)
…Anyway, yeah–why oh WHY did Palin have to be the one selected? Palin? A total screw-ball hick utter-nutter flake?! Whyyyyyyy??????
She did the cause of women in politics a SERIOUS disservice, and also, almost as bad from my point of view, made small-town hicks look like parochial iggerant bull-headed morons. Having grown up a hick in a small town, this angers me greatly.
Yeah I added the farting part… sorry.
I think Palin got picked cause she was, in that scary republican way, kinda hot and young. Unfortunately, I think my wife and daughter got a set back as a result of her pick, but maybe that was the repubs plan all along…. Honestly when she was picked, it was a surprise and I Googled her. First thing that came up was an ad for a bumper sticker that read “Alaska- Coldest State, hottest Governor.”
And if you don’t remember, then it never happened!!! At least that’s how I get through those nights and the aftermath….
Unfortunately, I think my wife and daughter got a set back as a result of her pick, but maybe that was the repubs plan all along….
For one second, I thought yea. Then she opened her mouth. And I knew we were set back mightily. Had to have been those grandoldpoops stickin it to women again. Can’t think of any other good reason.
Right after we learned Palin was picked, Andrea Mitchell interviewed Kay Bailey Hutchinson. KBH was noncommittal and dignified, but I felt bad for her - as she could have been a serious woman Republican VP candidate. To me, she is one of the handful of Senators of both parties that are serious people, not clowns or cronies or both.
If she can take the Republican primary for TX governor, she will have the election in the bag. But I’m afraid that Perry fires up the wacky wing-nutty base too effectively and we’ll stay stuck with Governor Goodhair.
Palin was picked because she has great legs, shiny hair, wears tight skirts, likes to shoot of guns, has proven herself fertile several times over, is the champion winker in all of Alaska, and is tougher than all of the drivers on Ice Road Truckers put together, except possibly for Alex Debogorsky, who has 11 kids, and is Canadian, a superiorly tough breed. I’m half Canadian, so I may be a tad prejudiced that way. Yes, a very superior candidate for sure.
If Palin truly is representive of the women who go into politics, maybe women don’t deserve the vote. I’ve seen plenty of women I would have voted for, but she does not make the list.
Palin was picked because she has great legs
I view Palin’s selection as just the first of several pathetic “me too” attempts by the GOP.
“Oh my god, they got a black guy! What can we do? What can we do? Let’s pick a woman - yeah, that’ll work!”
Followed by Bobby Jindal and Michael Steele.
“I view Palin’s selection as just the first of several pathetic “me too” attempts by the GOP.
“Oh my god, they got a black guy! What can we do? What can we do? Let’s pick a woman - yeah, that’ll work!”
I thought the GOP’s attempts to claim credit for running a woman as VP funny seeing that the Democratic Party ran Geraldine Ferraro as VP in 1984. A little late to the party, eh boys?
“Followed by Bobby Jindal and Michael Steele.”
You mean ‘Kenny The Page channelling Mr. Rogers’ and ‘Michael ‘Hip Hop’ Steele’? Yeah, they’ll really compete with Obama.
I guess the Republicans had no black females to choose from. Or Hispanics
I guess the Republicans had no black females to choose from. Or Hispanics
This shows a lamentable short-sidedness on their part, really. They better get going on the BORG cyro-tanks.
I guess the Republicans had no black females to choose from.
1. Senator Kay Bailey Hutchinson of Texas
2. Senator Olympia Snowe
3. Senator Lisa Murkowski of Alaska
4. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice
5. Senator Susan Collins of Maine
Link
Condie wants to be NFL Commissioner- not some stinking Vice President.
Just get religion out of the woman and I’d do anything for her! Nothing more attractive than a woman without an imaginary friend.
Condi will never make it in national politics. Just make a campaign commercial by looping her testimony to Congress: “I believe the name of the memo was B*n La**en determined to attack the United the States….I believe the name of the memo was B*n La**den determined to attack…”
First cup o’ joe down, now time to go drive some LDS kids to 6a seminary…
I thought that coffee and the LDS did not get along….
They get along just fine in my household.
6 freakin’ A.M.!?
Man, they’s got it good, huh? Or was this their idea?
I was compelled to take Seminary year in High school but I wisely used that time to sneak out to the athletic fields to the bleachers where all the Voc/Ag kids hung out smoking joints. They would greet me with generosity and cries of ‘You’ve been gone so long! P.E. was hours ago!’
Ahhh, good times….
Hey, PB, you know what’s gonna suck is if they stay righteous and get married in the Holy Temple while you’re sitting outside clutching your cup of Sa*tan’s Nectar (that’d be coffee, for those of you unfamiliar with the LDS faith).
I recall when my mom got married for Time and Eternity the second time and I couldn’t watch the lovely and sacred event take place. I wasn’t too sad, though. As it turns out, that particular ‘Eternal Marriage’ lasted for a year and a half longer than I thought it would.
I thought that coffee and the LDS did not get along….
And that’s too bad, really. Add the coffee and you could be more righteous, faster. Do Heavenly Father’s work in half the time and all that.
Doctrine &Covenants 89: 9
9. And again, hot drinks are not for the body or belly.
Not for the body or the belly? Are you supposed to pour them up your nose then? Or over your petunias?
Oh, no, I’ve got it. Eat ‘em with a spoon so they are food not drinks. That must be it.
I thought that coffee and the LDS did not get along….
That’s coffee and LSD.
Interesting. Two missionaries stopped by a little while ago. Nice young men, a very pleasant change from pants 6 inches below their waists and poor English. Sadly, I would hate to tell them that the only reason I didn’t join decades ago was that the church wouldn’t take me without my husband. That was a show stopper for me then. Don’t know if that has changed though.
…the church wouldn’t take me without my husband.
Is your husband not human?
Is he, perchance, a….wolf?
Yeah, jeeze, Ms. High-Functioning Asperger Syndrome*!
Dangle little enticing bits of a story and then walk off…
*It’s okay. Happens to the best of us.
He is definitely human. I don’t remember their reasoning now. I wish I did.
But he may be a werewolf. He has a tendency to get upset easily when the moon is full.
But he may be a werewolf. He has a tendency to get upset easily when the moon is full.
Oh, yeah?
1. So does he bite you at these times?
2. And do you like it?
Come on, you can tell us. I won’t tell anyone besides the western hemisphere.
Item: Senate facing debt ceiling.
The Senate must vote very soon to hike the ceiling on the national debt from $12.1 trillion to more than $13 trillion. It wants to do it by attaching it to a “must pass” bill such as funding for the War Department. Then they could say they did it to help U.S. troops who are in “harm’s way.”
You can be pretty sure the general news media won’t pay much attention to the debt ceiling increase. For instance, have you heard the House has already passed a $925 billion increase?
As of Tuesday the national debt piled up by Congress totaled $11.957 trillion. Many of these reckless big spenders pray that you won’t get really ticked off until after the election in November, ‘10. Then they’ll run the ceiling even higher, borrow billions more, and cut checks for everybody to cool the unhappiness.
We’ve seen this trick before everyone. Run up a big debt on the low interest rates. Then you have to roll that debt over later and whoa! You are saying the rate went up.
Good times everyone. Need to keep the rich folks happy.
Problem is, what do these numbers mean? Is 13 so different from 12? As an MSM member, I’d say this is one of those stories that need explaining and nobody seems to be able to do it. It’s like being 130 pounds overweight vs. 120 … or having that 13th drink after putting away the 12-pack. Hard to see some dramatic turn for the worse, I’m afraid. Yeah, I realize we’re talking about $1 trillion in debt, but that doesn’t buy what it used to, does it?
I got your dramatic turn for the worse right here.
Even inflation-adjusted or GDP-adjusted - the debt increase is really, really, really bad.
If that extra $1 trillion ends up being a tipping point, then it most certainly is a big deal. Tipping points, unlike bubbles, are hard to spot unfortunately.
Were that it were only 1 trillion. Try 10.
Scenario.
US debt reaches $13 trillion, and Mr. Market decides the US should be paying 3% to service that debt. Interest on the debt would be $390 billion.
Estimated receipts are $2.381 trillion for 2010 (actual in 2007 was $2.4 trillion). Interest would eat away 16.4% of receipts. Deep hole to dig out of.
Nonsense, tipping points show up crystal clear in a rearview mirror. Oh, wait…
Scenario.
US debt reaches $13 trillion, and Mr. Market decides the US should be paying 3% to service that debt. Interest on the debt would be $390 billion.
Estimated receipts are $2.381 trillion for 2010 (actual in 2007 was $2.4 trillion). Interest would eat away 16.4% of receipts. Deep hole to dig out of.
Now - just imagine if rates go up to 5%. Or to their historical norms of around 8% or so. How does that affect the equation?
Prediction - we’re in for a near-infinite period of very low interest rates. The U.S. financial system will completely break down before treasury rates hit 8%; and probably will if they even hit 5% for any significant period of time. By “break down” I mean poof - gone; Argentinian or Zimbabwean-style.
All other things equal, at 5% treasury interest, 27% of receipts is paying interest on the debt.
All other mandory spending (social security, medicare/medicaid, EI/welfare): $1630 billion
Interest on debt: $650 billion
receipts: $2381 billion
leftover budget for defense, education, agriculture, energy, etc.: $101 billion (2009: $1210 billion)
So every department in the US except social security, medicare, medicaid and EI/welfare need to cut their spending by over 90% to balance the budget.
I’m getting all these numbers out of wikip
Another way to evaluate: the 2010 budget as presented.
receipts: $2381 billion
expenditures: $3550 billion
The US is spending 150% of what it earns.
or
Spending must be cut by 33% to break even, which does not retire any debt.
The US has tipped.
IMO this is exactly why the stock market is being pumped up to smithereens right now. That “receipts” line is highly dependent upon capital gains tax, and thus the stock market performance. That’s why for instance 2009’s budget deficit miraculously shrank from a projection of $1.85 trillion in March down to an actual $1.4 trillion - something very unprecedented. Receipts went up due to the 50% gain in the stock market. That and less TARP funds were handed out than expected.
they should just increase to infinity.
To Infinity and Beyond!
They will cut checks long before the 2010 elections; remember “gimme some obamamoney” his underclass demographic expects it, will get it, and will continue to vote Democratic.
It’s been that way since the first Stalin disciples took office in the US.
I think it was Bush who sent out a check to pretty much everyone. But heck, if we’re gonna have mass bailouts, why shouldn’t renters and savers get to share in it? Should it all go to banksters, cash4clunkers, dough4dumps, and the like?
I think it was Bush who sent out a check to pretty much everyone.
Actually, that’d be that pesky Congress again. You know, the ones who control the purse strings in this country?
My response was to the ‘obamamoney’ post, so I was responding in kind. If theoretical checks sent out now are ‘obamamoney’, then the real checks sent out under Bush can be thought of similarly, no?
sent out under Bush can be thought of similarly, no?
Yes.
I didn’t get either Bush check, and neither did many of the people here. It was a disgusting move.
If he wanted to issue a tax rebate, he could have simply put a line that said ” subtract $800.00″ on the tax form for that year. It would have saved all the mailings and check processings.
It was a stunt to buy votes from J6P
This is just how f-ing stupid the global warming BS has gotten. I am looking forward to the (used) F-250 7.3 I’m getting next month. I’ll be sure and load the dog and cats into it and drive around for sport.
Eat a Dog, Save the Earth ~ October 22, 2009
SUVs owners are often castigated by treehuggers for their Earth-unfriendly lifestyle. A new book argues that pets are just as bad.
New Zealand authors Robert and Brenda Vale’s book, “Time to Eat the Dog: The Real Guide to Sustainable Living” is an exhaustive analysis of the environmental impact of common pets such as cats and dogs. The authors studied the carbon emissions created by pets, including the ingredients in their food and the land required to grow it. And the results don’t bode well for Fido, who compares poorly to that SUV.
The Values noted that a medium dog consumes 90 grams of meat and 156 grams of cereals daily in its recommended 300-gram portion of dried dog food. They then determined that Fido wolfs down about 164 kilograms of meat and 95 kilograms of cereals per year.
It takes 43.3 square meters of land to generate 1 kilogram of chicken per year — far more for beef and lamb — and 13.4 square meters to generate a kilogram of cereals. So that gives him a footprint of 0.84 hectares. For a big dog such as a German shepherd, the figure is 1.1 hectares.
Meanwhile, a Toyota Land Cruiser driven a modest 10,000 kilometers a year, uses 55.1 gigajoules, which includes the energy required both to fuel and to build it. One hectare of land can produce approximately 135 gigajoules of energy per year, so the Land Cruiser’s eco-footprint is about 0.41 hectares — less than half that of a medium-sized dog.
The authors aren’t really arguing that we should eat our pets of course, merely that we need to think more about the ecological impact of the things we do on a daily basis, and how we choose to use land.
“Owning a dog really is quite an extravagance, mainly because of the carbon footprint of meat,” Vale told New Scientist magazine. So what’s the “eco-pawprint” of your pet?
Better than eating pets, bbq a realtor. Not only would we reduce hot air emissions, but there would be a social benefit as well.
How will you deal with the toxic waste?
Drywall. Call it Realty Board.
Would you need some psyllium husk with that?
Hahahaah!
Put poochy on a diet. Most domestic dogs eat about 10 times as much as a wolf.
Just for the record:
Having kept both domestic dogs (of all sizes,) as well as a couple of timberwolves, I can attest that large breed dogs eat proportionately less than toy ones and rat-hybrids do. But there’s a reason they speak of “wolfing” something down. Pound for pound, wolves eat the same amount as similar-sized dogs. They just tend to do it in larger and less-frequent feedings when out in the wild.
One hectare of land can produce approximately 135 gigajoules of energy per year
Using what? Just wondering. Can you link the source?
http://www.newscientist.com/article/mg20427311.600-how-green-is-your-pet.html?page=1
Well when China takes over the US
Dog will definitely be on the menue.
“Mmm, schnauzer!”
There’s a reason they call them ‘chow-chows’.
Dumb argument from the Zealanders. Chickens & grain absorb carbon from the atmosphere and release it (into your body) upon consumption. Net carbon footprint? 0, zero, nada.
SUV’s don’t do the absorption part so much.
Chickens absorb carbon from the atmosphere? Might want to re-take that biology class.
I assume he wasn’t saying that they behave like plants do, but rather that they are a net consumer of carbon (as their bodies, like ours, are made up of organic material), and as such aren’t a contributor to the problem.
Not agreeing or disagreeing, just bored on the couch at home and trying to clarify
Perhaps, though he explicitly stated they “absorb carbon from the atmosphere”. True for plants, not so for animals.
In reality everything, outside of nuclear reactions, are net zero with regards to production or consumption of “carbon”. What we’re really talking about specifically is “carbon dioxide gas”. For that plants and animals offset each other - plants are net consumers, animals are net producers. The problem is:
- Initially the earth’s atmosphere was mostly carbon dioxide.
- Along came plants, and for millions of years there was more plant consumption of CO2 than than there was animal production, thus all the carbon got stored away in non-carbon-dioxide form - coal, oil, peat, etc.
- Along came humans, who are now huge net producers, in that we not only use our own bodies but also other industrial processes. So the atmosphere is going back to mostly carbon dioxide. (Well maybe not “mostly”, but a higher percentage than it was previously)
If dogs only lived in the wild - and ate other animals for instance, they would still be net producers of carbon dioxide; however much less so than now, since dogs also use an inordinate amount via the industrial processes - by proxy through humans.
If dogs only lived in the wild - and ate other animals for instance, they would still be net producers of carbon dioxide; however much less so than now, since dogs also use an inordinate amount via the industrial processes - by proxy through humans.
Agreed, packman. Though, I choose to have a dog rather than children. I’m guessing that my dog consumes far less than a child would over the 10 years I will have the dog.
My cat likes to hunt, kill, and eat mice and chipmunks. Do I get carbon credits for each kill?
I assume he wasn’t saying that they behave like plants do, but rather that they are a net consumer of carbon (as their bodies, like ours, are made up of organic material), and as such aren’t a contributor to the problem.
Not agreeing or disagreeing, just bored on the couch at home and trying to clarify
But, on the other hand, you probably still have blue toenails.
This makes me wonder, can we really take your word on scientific stuff?
…I just don’t know. Hmmmm.
OG
PS. By the way, MY toenails are sparkly pink. So you can take MY word of scientific stuff immediately.
Correctamundo.
10,000 kilometers a year is pinch over 6,300 miles. Most folks will drive more than that in a year, so that Toyota’s eco-footprint that the article mentions is a bit understated.
Well, old Ahnold just decided to go all stimulus on us here in LA. Voted in an NFL stadium we don’t want.
The only saving grace is the stupid POS may get built without state budget funds.
Time to recall the stupid bastard. Per yahoo below. This is the kind of bs job providing crapolla we just have no use for. Stadiums are almost always money losers. Especially football that only has 8 games a season.
ov. Arnold Schwarzenegger said Thursday he has signed a bill allowing the construction of a 75,000-seat stadium that developers hope will lure an NFL team back to the Los Angeles area.
Schwarzenegger said he signed the environmental exemption bill last week but saved the announcement for a news conference in Industry, where the stadium would be built about 15 miles east of Los Angeles.
The bill nullifies a lawsuit filed by residents in nearby Walnut over the project’s environmental impact.
Schwarzenegger called the lawsuit frivolous before a crowd of union members wearing hardhats. Across the street, a dozen protesters from Walnut and other nearby communities held signs saying “No Stadium.”
California Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger reacts after signing a bill Thursday Oct. 22, 2009 in the City of Industry, Calif., allowing the construction of a 75,000-seat stadium that developers hope will lure an NFL team to the Los Angeles area. Schwarzenegger announced the signing of the environmental exemption bill in Industry, where the stadium would be built about 15 miles east of Los Angeles.
“This is the best kind of action state government can create—action that cuts red tape, generates jobs, is environmentally friendly and brings a continued economic boost to California,” Schwarzenegger said.
At least we now know that California doesn’t need a bailout from the Fed.
I’d forgotten they don’t even have a team anymore. LOL.
Are they going to carry people out of their homes like sacks of potatoes like they did when they condemned the Chavez Ravine nabe?
I did not vote for him. Gosh, anyone with sense saw he was just a pawn and the anti Gray campaign was just BS. Different day, same story.
75,000 seats is too small for a football stadium, especially if they want to use the stadium for some number of years. And if the team is any good, they’ll need something much larger, 85K at least.
Even little podunk Indianapolis packed the 70,000 seat dome to bursting because the team is so good. Indy just built a new stadium, largely for Peyton Manning.
(not that this is a bad thing. I have a weakness for Mannings.
)
Oh the humanity!
Pamela Anderson’s living in a trailer now as tiling the swimming pool in platinum has brought her low on cash!
Is she too “big” to fail???
Pamela Anderson’s in tears over the platinum swimming pool that left her living in a trailer park
By Daily Mail Reporter
Last updated at 1:03 PM on 23rd October 2009
Pamela Anderson has spoken for the first time about her huge debts after building her dream home left her millions of dollars in the red.
The 42-year-old actress has been forced to move into a trailer park during construction of her beach home in Malibu, California. But she now fears she may have to sell it after going over budget.
She said: ‘I am $3million over budget and I should have moved in over a year ago. I’m tiling the whole pool in platinum — that’s expensive!’
‘I’m going to sell it. I hate it. People commit suicide over constructions.
‘Relationships break down over constructions and I can see why. It rips your heart out’
Anderson was speaking to former EastEnders star Joe Swash for a documentary called Pamela Anderson: At Home With Joe for Living TV.
She showed Swash, 27, and his film crew around the house and told him the financial situation was so bad that she lives in a trailer with her electrician boyfriend Jamie Padgett, 42, and her two sons Brandon, 13, and Dylan, 11.
She reportedly has just $4,000 in the bank and needs to spend at least $800,000 more to make the house habitable.
Last week it was revealed that she has signed up for a two-week stint as the Genie in Aladdin at the New Wimbledon Theatre.
When her guest appearance was announced, box office takings increased by 800 per cent, but she will reportedly earn only $615 a day.
Pamela Anderson didn’t age well, imo. No brains, no morals, no talent. The typical hollywood “personality/actress”. I hope her children see her as an anti-role model.
You can take the girl out of the trailer park, but you can’t take the trailer park out of the girl.
Apparently you can’t even keep her from returning to the trailer park. I guess it shows the advantage of going out like Marilyn.
I seem to recall those trailers in Malibu going for $1 million+ a couple of years ago…
two-week stint as the Genie in Aladdin at the New Wimbledon Theatre
Pamela Anderson in a holiday pantomime out in a little suburban theatre. Traditional British pantomime, although for children, is always campy as hell - with Pamela Anderson it should be a flaming hoot!
is always campy as hell - with Pamela Anderson it should be a flaming hoot!
Campy is fun. One thing I like about Pam is that she seems to recognize campiness, and plays along. What was it, ‘Barbwire’? some movie she starred in?
I enjoyed her performance. She looked like she thought it was all funny, and I appreciate that.
OMG. Now that was some nice warm tasty schadenfreude there..
Try this one from a Washington Post chat with a columnist:
Buyer’s remorse: If the only thing standing between you and being able to retire was the mortgage on a condo you’ll never be able to sell, would you consider defaulting? Does it make me a bad person that I’m seriously thinking about this?
John Kelly: No, what makes you a bad person is that you’re asking me, a person who has never balanced a checkbook. Ask a trained financial professional. I bet Michelle Singletary probably knows, too.
“Does it make me a bad person that I’m seriously thinking about this?”
Paging Little Joey, the HBB’s moral firebrand…
The platinum from the pool could buy a trailer anywhere in the country except Southern California.
Keep in mind that the “trailer park” she’s living in has a lot of million+ dollar “trailers” in it.
So you wanna drink and drive????
http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/stories/U/US_LOUNGE_CHAIR_DWI
Classic. The link doesn’t work but google lounge chair dui. Guy has a Lazyboy with a lawn mower engine and headlights. And it’s up for sale at police auction!
Just because some chick jumped on him, it ruined the fun!
Or something. Anyway, his awesome chair got confiscated. Maybe I can buy it at auction! And have someone drive it out here to me.
I wonder if you can phone in bids. How cool would it be to tool around town on a Lazyboy. If you could drive while in full-recline mode, then you would be king. Hope it’s big enough for two, because you know it’d be a lady-magnet.
When I read and hear about that, I reckon that the guy who modified his recliner is one of the geezer fishermen who got displaced from their idyllic RV park on Aransas Bay by the South Beach Cottages. He went back up north, picked up the pieces of his life, put the motor on the Lazy-Boy, went to the lounge for a few beers, got jumped by a geezerette longing for a geezer in a motorized recliner, and now it’s been impounded.
Shoot, he never even got to try out his sawed-off X-country ski attachments for winter…
Inspiring tale of the indomitability of the human spirit. It really writes itself. I see Dennis Hopper as the new ‘Lazyboy Rider’. Uma Thurman as the chick who jumps on him? Steve Bescemi as the bartender. Who should the cop be? Someone fascistic…ex-gov Arnold?
We know it gets chilly in Sweden this time of the year, but what about the economic climate? Checked the news headlines this morning. . .
“Husqvarna slashes staff in Sweden as profits fall….Truck maker Volvo posts heavy losses….Riksbank keeps interest rate at 0.25 percent….Ericsson hit by falling profits….Credit loses dent profits at SEB….Swedbank’s losses worse than expected.”
Sounds gloomy. But here’s one more….”Swedes upbeat about the economy.”
No word on Ikea?
Last month I went to IKEA for the first time. Kinda hard to explain. Except: unless there’s something specific you really like, go to Wal-mart. Seriously.
IKEA is like Sauder, only IKEA uses cute fabics and bright paint instead of fake wood veneer. Scandinavian home offices look like Romper Room.
Well my old Volvo was assembled in Belgium, so outsourcing isn’t just for Americans.
husqvarna are great chainsaws.They are very high quality and hold up very well.
Too bad for Swedish companies and employees.
But what amazing news for Amazon! Stock is up in outer space today!
That must be some major short covering.This whole market is reminding me of the dot.com days.The shrills at cnbc are all excited about this rigged market.
I cannot explain the MSFT hype. The analysts put a positive spin on its disappointing news. But Amazon’s earnings reports are real and positive. Many companies had less losses than anticipated. To me, losses are losses. Apple had real gains.
The pork barrel stimulus, insanely low interest rates, and printing of money may be proving great for large growth companies.
When the bottom drops out of stocks, we’ll see precious metals take off to dizzying heights. The significant flood of foreclosures in 2010 will probably take the wind out of the growth stocks.
Well, talk about shrinking local inventories. I just placed another online order at Amazon for stuff I can no longer find here. I guess it is the wave of the future.
MSFT is benefitting from the good reviews of Windows 7. Maybe it’s the “Nobel Peace” school of thought — that is, Microsoft is being rewarded for not putting out another Vista.
I was sad a few months ago when a chainsaw was given to me and it wasn’t a Husqy. I got a Poulan. Works okay for now but I’m not sure how long I should expect it to last.
My Husqy still runs great after 29 years and many hundreds of hours operation.
My Husqy still runs great after 29 years and many hundreds of hours operation.
*spits hot coffee all over *
What?! You’re not a lumberjack, are you!? Please say NOOOOOOoooOOOOOOOOO!
“What?! You’re not a lumberjack, are you!?”
No Oly. More like an undertaker. I take the fallen and turn them into things of beauty once again.
When I lived in Wisconsin and used various borrowed chain saws from time to time, I loved the Husqvarna.
That said, I recently used a Poulan lawn mower that several in the neighborhood share. It belonged to Mabel, who died 10 years ago at ninety and I am guessing that it is 25-30 years old. I was mowing tall damp grass and weeds - and it was awesome. Hope your Poulan chainsaw turns out to be such an enduring powerhouse as Mabel’s mower.
No Oly. More like an undertaker. I take the fallen and turn them into things of beauty once again.
Oh. Well, that’s good then.
And congrats on your new grandchild.
Most of my family uses STIHL chainsaws and a few Husqvarnas. They have both held up well for us.
Mostly pine and softwoods on our property plus helping our friends and neighbors in northern MN.
All I cut is stuff that has already fallen and dead trees that haven’t fallen yet. I turn it into fire.
Works okay for now but I’m not sure how long I should expect it to last.
Remember to cut through the joints, not the bones.
Remember to cut through the joints, not the bones.
Thanks for the laugh, lavi.
You are a sick person….
Jim A.
I’m pushing 300,000 on my ‘95 Volvo. The turning radius is hard to give up. Not to mention no car payments, and the ding phobia of a new car.
Well I don’t have my 1971 144s anymore. Caught fire ’bout 15 years ago. Darn those Zenith Stromburgs.
“I’m pushing 300,000 on my ‘95 Volvo. ”
I am so sorry you have to live like that!
Amusing Report! Love the answer from this particular moron.
Senate Judiciary Chairman Patrick Leahy (D-Vt.) would not say what part of the Constitution grants Congress the power to force every American to buy health insurance–as all of the health care overhaul bills currently do.
When CNSNews.com again attempted to ask which provision of the Constitution gives Congress the authority to force Americans to purchase health insurance, Leahy compared the mandate to the government’s ability to set speed limits on interstate highways.
~~ A hoot! Forcing healthy Americans to buy medical insurance so they will offset the costs of unhealthy Americans would not pass Constitutional muster, even in these peculiar times.
Fortunately, a lot of Americans are catching on to the proposed scheme and are putting pressure on their representatives to deep six it.
If they can force drivers to buy automobile insurance while using public thoroughfares, then why not force both drivers and passengers to have insurance while being in any public area?
So if you want to be uninsured, you may do so within the confines of your own home or commune.
Cops can ticket you for commuting while uninsured.
Insurance companies will come up with cut rate schemes that will insure you only when you are on public property.
So if you actually try to go to a doctor, the insurance company will turn you down because you fell sick at home, so when you left your driveway, it was a “pre-existing condition”.
That’s going to be a lot of fun! I can see jobs for lawyers.
Auto insurance compliance runs 50% in Texas. I doubt those same people will be buying people insurance.
The Insurance Companies already have a monopoly on health care which has resulted in increased costs every year. But ,in terms of other business the monopoly is foreign labor/production which is a monopoly
on competition . So wages go down and health costs go up .
What Congress/Senate should address is why they are allowing monopolies .
Your forced into taking the insurance your Employer offers at the job ,and if you don’t want it you don’t get the money instead . Now tell me if that ins’t forced medical care . So,there has always been a form of forced compliance with taking the benefit from your employer and paying part of the costs .
But its getting to the point where the Employers aren’t wanting to offer these benefits and the insurance Companies still want their 30% profits per year while they try to get rid of high risk customers that they wouldn’t mind shifting to the government .
So because it’s just one big mess the way the health system is set up ,it really needs a entire overhaul . I’m sure Employers want to totally get off the hook and not have to pay part of heath costs without giving that benefit back in real dollars to the employee if a public option came to be .
The way they tied health care to the Employer was the way in which
they were able to get healthy people to contribute ,otherwise they would have a problem with it .
So ,realize that you have been forced to contribute anyway .
It could get to the point where the Insurance Companies pressure the Employers to get rid of sick employees also if they continue to exert their power . They is a lot of evidence of them cancelling people and
leaving them in a position of not being insurable because of pre-existing .It’s become a rotten system .I have had nurses admit to me that in the last 10 to 15 years the Insurance Companies have gain a
lot of power regarding health care .
The lobby forces are trying to get something that makes their pockets fatter ,while they have already ruined health care .
Yes it needs an overhaul, but we have no competent mechanics.
Well, the Federal Gov’t doesn’t set the speed limits, the states do, so Leahy is wrong on this point.
No where in the Constitution does it give the Federal Gov’t the power to force individuals to purchase anything.
If this passes, I hope it will be subject to many court challenges.
Well, the Federal Gov’t doesn’t set the speed limits, the states do, so Leahy is wrong on this point.
Technically, sure. But the fed coerces the states with tax dollars taken from the residents of the state.
Yep - that’s how they got the drinking age to 21 by holding road funds hostage.
But the fed coerces the states
The Fed shouldnt be coerceing anything. The states are INDEPENDANT.
Well, the Federal Gov’t doesn’t set the speed limits
They don’t set them currently, but they certainly have the power to - explicitly, not just through withholding highway funding.
Now if we can just eliminate Medicare for TODAY’s senior citizens, so we don’t have to pay for part of it now and part of it forever in debt. No? We can only not have public programs for those under 65? And we can only eliminate senior benefits for those now under 50, because when they get old the country will be broke?
How convenient.
I begin to wonder whether all the murmuring Lilliputians might ultimately succeed in tying down Gulliver?
The Fed
Oct. 23, 2009, 8:51 a.m. EDT
Bernanke: Biggest banks will face more rules
By Greg Robb, MarketWatch
WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) — Federal Reserve Board chief Ben Bernanke said Friday that the biggest banks will be subject to more rules and regulations in coming months in order to protect the financial system.
“With the financial turmoil abating, now is the time for policymakers to take action to reduce the probability and severity of any future crisis,” Bernanke said at a Cape Cod conference put on the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
The Fed’s participating in a range of efforts “to ensure that large, systemically critical financial institutions hold more and higher-quality capital, improve their risk-management practices, have more robust liquidity management, employ compensation structures that provide appropriate performance and risk-taking incentives, and deal fairly with consumers,” Bernanke said.
The U.S. central bank’s also mulling whether to assess a “capital surcharge” on the biggest banks or to impose rules that require a greater share of their capital be in the form of common equity, Bernanke said.
…
Looks like Germany’s a lot like us, too:
http://www.spiegel.de/international/spiegel/0,1518,655951,00.html
Banking headquarters in Frankfurt — investigators are encountering a conspiracy of silence in their bid to probe the financial crisis.
The investigation into public bank BayernLB highlights the problems the German justice system faces in tackling the shortcomings that led to the financial crisis. Investigators are overwhelmed, and managers and supervisors have formed a wall of silence.
No Convictions of Bankers in Germany
Hundreds of investigators throughout Germany are currently digging through thick stacks of files, studying contracts and minutes, and interviewing managers, executives and consultants. Their goal is to find out who is responsible for wiping out €160 billion in assets in Germany alone during the financial crisis.
While US authorities have a penchant for taking away “banksters” in handcuffs, on live television, their German counterparts are making little headway as they investigate the players in the financial crisis. There have been a few spectacular raids at institutions like the KfW state development bank and mortgage lender Hypo Real Estate, as well as former executives at Sachsen LB, but with meager results. There have been no arrests or convictions.
There is little visible evidence over there of a housing bubble. They just don’t have nearly the amount of vacant desert land as the US has on which to build soon-to-be-abandoned tract home developments…
Further, I don’t believe their mortgage lending system went berserk like ours did in the US. My impression is they mainly got burned by investing in our MBS…
Yeah, it looks like they dodged the housing bubble in Germany, but financed it in other countries. I thought the article was mainly interesting because it shows that European (or at least German) banks are as poorly regulated and ‘above the law’ as American banks. I was hoping Europe might be the leader in helping to clean up the financial system, but it looks like they’re in the same boat we are.
Worse, they point to *us* as an example of the ‘get tough’ approach.
Bear, did you just say that Germany didn’t have a housing bubble, because they’re really running out of land over there?
I’ll have to noodle on that one over the workday…
Some guys noodle, other guys mulch.
I’m a mulcher
“…because they’re really running out of land over there?”
That can’t be the reason, because Japan is much more out of land but had a ginormous bubble before the twenty-year deflation (so far) from 1989-2009. I think it has more to do with how irrationally exuberant the lending sector becomes (not to mention the central bankers who pull the levers from behind the curtain).
Germany has a perchance for taking bankers away in windowless railroad cars…
Mortgage-O-Matic…it slices…it dices…and it very easy to clean up afterwords.
You’ve been watching the home shopping network again, haven’t you?
I miss Billy Mays. Vince the Sham Wow guy just doesn’t live up.
Odd facts, Billy Mays was into cocaine big time, and The Shamwow guy got put into jail for hitting a hooker, not paying her IIRC. So you have to be nuts to be a master tv sales person?
That much charisma doesn’t come naturally. At least to the sane.
The Shamwow guy also had his tongue bit off by the same hooker. He, too, had a “chemical stimulant” problem.
I believe she went to jail, not him.
Local Market Observation…95050-95054
Inventory is low vs. one year ago (less than 1/2)…I have seen more price adjustments in asking prices in the last 30 days particularly in the upper end of the market…A broad guess would be we have seen a 5% downward adjustment in the last 30 days…
Dodd supports a measure to put a single regulatory snake in charge of the chicken coop. Frank opposes.
market pulse
Oct. 23, 2009, 9:41 a.m. EDT
Frank: No chance of consolidated bank regulator
By Ronald D. Orol
WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) — There was “no reasonable chance” that legislators would create a consolidated super bank regulator, House Financial Services Committee Chairman Barney Frank told reporters Friday. The Massachusetts Democrat reiterated his support for combining the Office of Thrift Supervision and the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency, but he opposed a proposal introduced by Senate Banking Committee Chairman Christopher Dodd, D-Conn., which would create a consolidated regulator made up of all bank regulators.
…
Single point of failure http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Single_Point_of_Failure
Way to go doddering dude, that’ll fix the problem!
BTW, PB, I finally read the Taleb excerpt PDF last night at the hospital — I am actually going to reference that in the staff development work I do. Many teachers find one or two styles effective so they do more of that and the kids get less variety (scaling).
I should probably dig more into his work soon.
Did your wife get mad at you for not focusing 100 pct on your incipient arrival, or did you do your reading on the sly?
P.S. Congrats. Having a new baby is certainly one of life’s richest moments.
MarketWatch First Takes
Street
buyingselling into earningsGiven that stronger home sales represent burgeoning green shoots of economic recovery, shouldn’t the stock market rally on the news?
My hunch: Wall Street traders are reading the handwriting on the wall that says govt housing market support measures will soon end. I note that this is one of the first data releases in recent memory which turned out “better than expected.”
market pulse
Oct. 23, 2009, 10:11 a.m. EDT
U.S. stocks mostly down after home sales data
By Kate Gibson
NEW YORK (MarketWatch) — U.S. stocks on Friday turned mostly lower after a brief burst up that came after a trade group reported sales of existing homes climbed 9.4% in September. The rise proved more robust than analysts had expected.
…
Bovine brained traders shouldn’t let that early-day weakness worry them. The PPT appears to be backstopping the DJIA at 10K these days, and the trading day is young… no reason the DJIA cannot climb to a new high by day’s end, in fact…
How does the plunge protection team decide at what level to backstop the headline indexes? And how do they exercise the Greenspan/Bernanke put? Any leads would be appreciated…
Lend/give money to hedge funds and mutual funds so that when someone with an account there sells stocks and takes the money, the firm can pretend to sell the stocks, actually still hold the stocks (for the gov), and just give the customer the gov money instead?
I am happy to report that I stand corrected — the DJIA is not backstopped at 10K after all, and has broken through resistance levels on the way down…
I guess the stock market does not like higher home sales? What do Wall Street traders dislike about a recovering housing market?
Probably has nothing to do with house sales. Maybe the traders just heard some talk about a recession?
The railroads didn’t sound positive. Isn’t it the Oracle of Omaha that views the railroads as one of his leading indicators?
GS is damn good at getting money for doing nothing.
New Jersey Pays Goldman Sachs for Swaps on Nonexistent Bonds.
Oct. 23 (Bloomberg) — New Jersey taxpayers are sending almost $1 million a month to a partnership run by Goldman Sachs Group Inc. for protection against rising interest costs on bonds that the state redeemed more than a year ago.
The most-densely populated U.S. state is making the payments under an agreement made during the administration of former Governor James E. McGreevey in 2003, when New Jersey’s Transportation Trust Fund Authority sold $345 million in auction-rate bonds whose yields fluctuated with short-term interest costs. The agency finances road and rail projects.
“This vividly shows the risk of entering into interest- rate swap agreements,” said Christopher Taylor, former executive director of the Municipal Securities Rulemaking Board in Alexandria, Virginia. “The world’s got to see what stupidity even the sophisticated investors like the transportation fund can get into.”
While New Jersey replaced the debt with fixed-rate securities in 2008 after the $330 billion auction-rate bond market froze, the swap, in which two parties typically exchange fixed payments for ones based on floating interest rates, isn’t scheduled to expire until 2019.
That’s a great business. I wish I’d thought of it! I’m going to start selling insurance against tragedies that didn’t happen yesterday. You know tsunami insurance in Santa Monica for 2008! I’m going to be rich! But fair is fair wmbz. I’ll cut you in, and write you a similar policy for free!
I actually had this happen to me. My insurance on my house had lapsed, and it went unnoticed for over a year. It was supposed to have been paid by BofA through an impound account, but they f’d up. Once discovered, the insurance company wanted me to pay the previous years premiums. I told the where to go and how to get there and switched insurance companies.
Cassandra
I would like to know the rest of the story. What happen with BofA? Did they take full responsibility? (it’s a bank, after all.)
There were no claims that year, or I’d guess they’d be on the hook. B of A didn’t accept any responsibility, naturally. But they didn’t cooperate with the insurance co. either. At the end of the day, I had just gone without insurance for a year. I wasn’t insured as required by the B of A mortgage, but then again, I didn’t pay for insurance that year either. It would have been rather interesting if I’d had a claim. Apparently it just slipped through the cracks at B of A, as I’d contracted for insurance. Actually turned out to be a pretty cool kind of insurance - no claims, no premiums, with the bank backstopping any damages.
The govenor is a GS guy.
That should tell the story.
Goldman always gets paid. From a Spiegel article I linked to above:
“The investigators are mainly interested in a $45-million payment to US bank Goldman Sachs, which had obtained credit insurance from HSH against the Lehman bankruptcy. Strate is convinced that “HSH should not have had to pay up. Goldman clearly missed the deadline. This is a breach of trust on the part of the HSH executives.”
Indeed, even HSH’s own lawyers had long advised management to remain unbending because of the missed application deadline. In the end, the bank argues, it was in HSH’s interest to pay up and not risk a lawsuit.”
Isn’t it inflation fears which normally drive T-bond yields higher?
In the case at hand, I would think a cessation of the Fed’s bond yield buydowns would be of greater concern than “rate hikes”; after all, it is a policy of sitting on T-bond yields which is keeping the bond market from responding to all the inflation hysteria in the air…
Bond Report
Oct. 23, 2009, 10:21 a.m. EDT
Treasurys down on concern about rate-hike timing
By Deborah Levine, MarketWatch
NEW YORK (MarketWatch) — Treasurys prices dropped on Friday, sending 2-year yields up the most since August, after a media report revived concerns about when the Federal Reserve may have to raise interest rates.
…
Speaking of which, I read on the Atlanta Federal Reserve website that its buying of Treasury & MBS bonds will end in 2 weeks or something like that. That I knew was coming, but what I didn’t know was the recent buying spree included Treasury TIPS bonds. Now I understand buying regular bonds and MBS to drive down rates on borrowing, but I did not anticipate the TIPS purchase as part of the QE effort.
I have some TIPS which now I am thinking about unloading. Can TIPS under-perform in a situation where interest rate rises significantly but official CPI do not go up nearly as much for whatever reason, since TIPS is indexed to CPI? I am afraid this maybe a possibility.
Isn’t it inflation fears which normally drive T-bond yields higher?
Not if the T-bonds themselves are actually the target of the inflation, which they very much are now. High prices = low yields. We are in a *huge* treasury bubble right now; unfortunately however it’s a bubble that is completely outside the control of normal market forces, since it’s manipulated directly by bank and Fed buying. This this is one bubble that may actually never pop - until the U.S. itself pops at least (geopolitically speaking).
Otherwise if this were any other bubble, yields would probably be 10% by now easy.
ThisThus this is one bubble that may actually never popI see my “porky pig latin” is coming along these days.
But doesn’t the lower and lower dollar go hand in hand with the T-bond yield buydown program? Certainly the dollar cannot go lower forever?
flu update:
Feeling better again. Sore throat is mostly gone, though it flares up when I cough. Cough has reached the “barking seal” stage - at least that is what my mother always called it. Still congested, but much less than the last two days.
However, I am still running a fever first thing in the morning. Means I have to consider myself infectious through at least Sunday morning. I guess this is where the tamiflu could have really helped. Too bad I never got any.
This is one nasty little bug. Very clingy.
Congrats on the new baby, Muggy. Keep ‘em all safe and sound.
Palm Beach County commissioners brace for $117 million shortfall in next budget year. ‘The worst in a series of bad’
By JENNIFER SORENTRUE
Palm Beach Post Staff Writer
Thursday, October 22, 2009
Palm Beach County commissioners finalized this year’s budget just a month ago, but the seven-member board is already bracing for the $117.7 million financial blow as they prepare the county’s 2011 spending plan next summer.
This year, the county slashed more than 600 positions, cut 10 percent from department budgets and reduced money for nonprofit groups to make up for a multimillion-dollar shortfall. The $3.5 billion spending plan took effect Oct. 1.
But county administrators are already warning that next year’s cuts likely will be much worse.
“We have never had a circumstance where the projections are this bad on top of an already bad situation,” County Administrator Bob Weisman said Wednesday. “This is the worst in a series of bad.”
Countywide property values are expected to fall by 12 percent next year. And there are no signs that other sources of revenue, including state sales tax, will staunch the bleeding, Weisman said.
The only way to fix the shortfall is to raise property taxes or cut expenses and services, administrators say.
In an unprecedented early start, commissioners will hold their first budget workshop on the 2011 spending plan on Tuesday. A second meeting will be held Wednesday to discuss individual department budgets.
The commission historically waited until spring to begin work on the next year’s budget. The county’s budget year begins on Oct. 1.
County financial managers project as much as a $117.7 million shortfall next year if commissioners decide to leave the countywide property tax rate flat. This year’s rate is $4.34 for each $1,000 of taxable value.
But even if commissioners decide to raise the rate, the county will still have to cut.
To bring in the same amount of property tax revenue as the county expects to collect this year, commissioners would have to raise the rate to $4.93, up 13.5 percent from this year.
But they’ll need far more.
At that rate, the county would still be left with a $51.1 million shortfall. This year, county managers pulled money from reserves and cut onetime expenses to help ease the budget shortfall. Commissioners won’t be able to draw on reserves again next year, officials say.
“You run out of those,” Weisman said. “And it gets tougher and tougher to balance the budget.”
I read this blog (almost) daily for about two years already and first I want to thank everyone for all the things they (indirectly) taught me.
Now, it’s my time to give something back. More precisely two personal observations:
First is about credit, more precisely about credit cards. About two and a half years ago (march 2007), I had some health problems for which I had to undergo some physical therapy (useless in my opinion but … that’s another story) for which I THOUGHT I was covered by my health insurance. That wasn’t the case and some time it passed between the time I got the bill at home and the moment I realised I wasn’t covered. In that time I kept getting bills and repeated bills and all kind of papers; papers which I just threw away. When I realised I have to pay, I started digging and I paid everything (or so I thought). About 6 months later (September) I received the final paper. A collection notice. I also paid that worrying a little bit about my credit history but a few weeks later one of my credit card’s limit was raised (significantly I thought).
Fast forward to a few days ago when trying to buy some gas, my wife’s credit card was declined. She called the company to find out that the bank had closed the account unilaterally due to SIGNIFICANT changes in the credit report. I feared the worst (stolen identity) and I went to check the report. Before getting to read it, she got another mail saying that one of her other credit card’s limits was significantly reduced for the same reason - the anxiety increased. The report: a 10$ unpaid balance (for 60 days) on another credit card (that she almost never uses) !!!!!!
Is it just me or credit is tighter and tighter?
Second, in my spare time I fix computers and one of my customers is a bankruptcy lawyer (he only does chapter 7 - low income) and in the last few weeks we talked a lot (I teach him about computers, he tells me about what he does). If I were to believe him, he has filled more cases in Maryland than anyone else so he probably knows what he’s saying. What’s that? What everyone here already knows:
1: the worst is yet to come (calls volume increased a lot in the last year (including those he can not take (chapter 11 and so forth)) and that “worst” is …. very bad!
2: people never change/learn; the consumption mentality is so deep that he doesn’t know what has to happen in order to change the situation. (Some people call him once in a while just to ask him if the time is up for the next bankruptcy they can file)
I hope you’ll find this interesting!
(”Some people call him once in a while just to ask him if the time is up for the next bankruptcy they can file”)
Times certainly have changed in a couple of generations. One of my grandfathers (Born~1890 died 1969) would have considered himself a complete failure to himself and family if he had filed for bankruptcy.He would have done everything humanly possible to have avoided it.
Today some folks seem to wear it as a badge of honor.
K, a trusted employee and partner in my late father’s business was deeply in debt twenty or thirty years ago. K was in a deal (nothing to do with my father) with a guy who cheated him; K did his part but the other guy didn’t make payments on their joint note as he was claiming to.
My father, who had always considered bankruptcy a deep moral and human as well as financial failing, felt bad for him and thought that K should declare bankruptcy. K would have nothing of it. He struggled and scrimped for years to pay off the debt from the other guy’s fraud and did so.
K also helped his kids take care of their mother, his ex-wife who had made his life very difficult, in her last year.
Happy to report that this good man is now married to a wonderful woman and has prospered.
This is interesting John. I’m not surprised by all of the bankruptcies in Maryland. Very high cost of living there, very high-end population ( at least in the area that I visit frequently ).
2: people never change/learn; the consumption mentality is so deep that he doesn’t know what has to happen in order to change the situation.
I think most consumers now believe any curtailing of spending is just a temporary condition, I don’t know how many are willing to make a longterm change to frugality. The consumption mentality is ingrained, I agree with you.
That’s what makes 2009 such an interesting year. As the days pass we will see the “this is temporary” meme coming under increasing stress. From here on out managing expectations will become more and more difficult. It was easy managing expetations off the dramatic and preciptous drop of last fall/winter, but now people are starting to get restless.
One slow Christmas is an aberration, two slow Christmases is a problem.
ej-
if you care to peek into the twisted minds of the average Phillies fan, have a look:
http://www.thefightins.com/
as a citizen of the urban jungle, you may get a kick out of this.
Highlights: celebrating fan falls off moving taxicab
Police chief on duty night of the NL clinch - in riot gear
“The Pride of Mayfair” - ’nuff said.
happy female in the stands is obviously chilly
I did some Chapter 7’s and yes it was funny all the weird crap they listed, CD and book clubs, stuff from the shopping network. Just crap. And NOT medical, though sometimes an injury might cause loss of hours with work comp not being nearly enough to pay all the credit card bills. I suspecting drinking & gambling problems as well.
Then, you’d find out they wanted to cut a deal with one of the companies and not list them, like Sears, so they could still charge stuff.
Presently almost two thirds of personal bankruptcies are medically-related. And of those who declared due to medical reasons, more than three-fourths had health insurance. It hasn’t always been this way, but it is now.
Where do these #’s come from, it seems unbelieveable.
I’ve heard that stat as well - but I’m pretty sure it came out *before* the housing bubble popped.
Very few bankruptices happened back when home prices were skyrocketing, and you had a big ATM with four walls to draw from. Now things are a bit different.
I’ve seen them related to medical bills that high, but not to medical bills of people who have health insurance, that’s what is troubling though no doubt is related to uncovered expenses and denied claims…
http://www.consumeraffairs.com/news04/2005/bankruptcy_study.html
Study rebutted by Megan McArdle, with much debate in comments. Enjoy!
http://tinyurl.com/yfeatg3
2005 - as I mentioned, on the frontside of the bubble. I’d be curious to see what data from 2008-2009 timeframe shows.
Obviously medical causes will continue to be a big contributor to bankruptcy, but I’ll bet the “home equity tapped out” cause is now a much bigger chunk, though only in recourse states mostly.
Of course the two presumably overlap some - e.g. someone has medical issues *and* they’ve lost their home equity to tap into.
Many people tapped their home equity FOR their medical bills, so technically, it isn’t medical.
The ‘refutation’ by McCardle is *weak*. Seriously, go read it. Her basic positions are that a) she just can’t believe the numbers, and b) there were fewer bankruptcies overall during the latter years of the study as compared to the earlier years. Well, so? Does she understand what a ‘percentage’ means? I suspect there were fewer overall bankruptcies during the latter period because that’s when we were in an overheated, easy money bubble economy. It doesn’t in any way disprove the percentage that was health care related.
I think the numbers in the study are surprising too, but I await a better refutation than this before I’ll totally disbelieve them.
Norway releases records on each taxpayer’s income and wealth.
Norway’s tax authorities, operating under a new law, have released official records showing the annual income and overall wealth of nearly every taxpayer in the country, the Associated Press reports.
The “skatteliste” or “tax list” for 2008 is given to the media under a law aimed at promoting transparency.
The law emphasized that “first and foremost, it’s the press that can contribute to a critical debate” on wealth and the elaborate tax scheme that, along with the country’s oil wealth, keeps Norway’s extensive — and expensive — welfare system afloat, the AP says.
The list, for example, shows that actress and director Liv Ullmann earned $17,300 in Norway, and has a wealth of $2.5 million. Income earned or kept abroad, or otherwise in some sort of tax shelter, is not included, the AP says.
Former cross-country skiing great Bjoern Daehlie, who has eight Olympic gold medals, is worth $5.4 million.
“Isn’t this how a social democracy ought to work, with openness, transparency and social equality as ideals?” columnist Jan Omdahl wrote in the tabloid Dagbladet.
Omdahl conceded, however, that many people treat the list as “tax porno,” that allows them to check the income of neighbors of co-workers.
Critics say the list is actually a threat to society.
“What each Norwegian earns and what you have in wealth is a private matter between the taxpayer and the government,” said Jon Stordrange, director of the Norwegian Taxpayer’s Association.
He also said the list gives criminals valuable information for picking prime targets and generates playground taunts of my-dad-is-richer-than-your-dad.
Doesn’t Italy publish a list in descending order of taxes paid?
I don’t know.
If this is ever proposed over here I’m sure plenty of kooks will be all for it. In the spirit of “diversity” the D.C. cesspool would be exempt of course.
California periodically publishes a list of delinquent taxpayers. This year it could take up all the space the newspapers used to devote to real estate advertising…..
Shoot! I’d have income abroad if I was a Norwegian. What a scary thing to do to their own citizens! Yes, it leaves them open to thieves. Norwegians should revolt and replace their government.
It might not be so terrifying in a country that doesn’t have the outrageous disparities in wealth that we do.
“It might not be so terrifying in a country that doesn’t have the outrageous disparities in wealth that we do.”
No matter where you are or how similar the incomes you still will have a society of ants and grasshoppers. Why should the bad savers (the grasshoppers) be able to target those who live below their means and save (the ants?) A lot more people get rich scrimping and saving than winning a lotto or inventing a product or destroying a bank. They should not be named so that the vultures can target them and take/cheat/steal/kidnap their wealth away. Just having to deal with family members begging for their stupid decisions to be fixed “but you have so much!” is cruel and unusual punishment.
Of course, I am a BIG believer in privacy rights.
Yeah, I kind of agree with the privacy thing, I was just poking fun at BiLA’s encouragement to overthrow the government because of it. Seemed a bit extreme.
I believe Bill is talking out his @ss on this. I know some Norwegians personally. They are slightly terrified to visit the US, knowing what they do about our crime rates. I had fun watching one of them raise his eyebrows as I told tales of when we used to live in Richmond, CA and would hear gun shots in the street at night.
In a country like Norway, where most people are reasonably well-off but where there is not a sizable super-rich border-line white collar criminal parasitic class preying off the masses the way Wall Street’s financial establishment does in the US, there is little reason to worry about theft.
But if you have evidence that the theft rate in Bergen rivals that in Los Angeles, please post it, and I will gladly apologize for my misinformed thinking.
Norway has a much more homogeneous society than the U.S. Shared cultural values mean more effectiveness of octracising people from communities when the people do not conform to the customs. This is also the way it is in Japan.
I prefer diversity and multi-racial societies though.
In Phoenix, an Iraqi-American attempted to kill his 20 year old daughter for becoming westernized and living with her boyfriend. He has not been captured yet. His daughter is hanging on for life.
Yes, we have problems by newcomers such as this. But to trade individualism away for more security will be a travesty.
I am enjoying an amusing memory of a macroeconomics course I once took. The professor talked about how an assumption of “no Ponzi schemes” was sufficient (in theory) to rule out the possibility of asset price bubbles.
Oct. 20, 2009, 9:56 p.m. EDT
Asset-price bubble risk returns amid loose policy
By Laura Mandaro, MarketWatch
SANTA BARBARA, Calif. (MarketWatch) — The trillions of dollars in extra cash pumped into the global economy to ease the credit crisis could threaten a new asset-price bubble, finance officials say, but it’s not yet time to sound the alarm bells.
“One of the things I’ve learned myself during this crisis is that monetary policy needs to be more sensitive and more attuned to the possibility of asset bubbles,” San Francisco Federal Reserve President Janet Yellen told reporters Tuesday at a conference on Asia economic policy.
“We certainly need to be on top of understanding what vulnerabilities are developing in the financial system,” she said.
…
“We certainly need to be on top of understanding what vulnerabilities are developing in the financial system,” she said.
Now, after the Fed creates umpteen trillions of dollars, now she starts yellin about the dangers of bubbles.
Anybody else getting Fed up?
Barn door left open
All the horses have vanished
Time to start Yellen!
“…but it’s not yet time to sound the alarm bells.”
If the Fed had a battleship they would assign Mr. Magoo to the crow’s nest.
The key advantage of executing policy during a crisis: The normal rules do not bind policymakers during a panic.
Fed’s Plosser calls for stricter rules on policy
Tue Oct 20, 2009 8:03pm EDT
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - A top Federal Reserve official said on Tuesday the U.S. central bank needs stricter policies dictating when it should step in with bailouts, saying such measures would have reduced confusion during last year’s financial crisis.
“Going forward, the Fed as well as other policy makers should strive to follow a systematic, more ‘rule-like’ approach in bad times as well as good,” the president of the Philadelphia Federal Reserve, Charles Plosser, said in remarks prepared for delivery at a conference at Stanford University in Palo Alto, California.
“We must also apply a systematic approach to the central bank’s financial stability policy, particularly its policy actions as the lender of last resort,” said Plosser, who is not a voting member of the Fed’s policy-setting committee in 2009.
…
A systematic approach to bailouts ? How about rules and regulations and enforcement that prevents the need for bail outs you morons !
“A top Federal Reserve official said on Tuesday the U.S. central bank needs stricter policies dictating when it should step in with bailouts, saying such measures would have reduced confusion during last year’s financial crisis.”
Here’s a better idea:
Let’s arrest and imprison all the members the Federal Reserve NOW, and wait until the financial crisis is over before deciding whether to execute or deport them. It’ll be less confusing for the kids.
Lots of attacks yesterday about my lack of math skills. The beauty of math is it doesn’t lie.
Two options for me: Rent for $3000 or buy for $600K. And what costs $3K to rent is asking $650K to buy, meaning it could be bought for $600K.
Over 5 years: Rent costs $180,000
Buy same house for $600K with $200K down.
If I leave my $200K in a MM account I will lose $2K per year in interest, which is $1380 after tax. Over 5 years that’s $6900.
$400K mortgage @ 5% which is what the going rate today is
$2147 payment
In 5 years when I sell:
$128,820 total payments
$96K interest paid
$25K property tax paid
$12,500 maintenance/repairs assuming $2500 a year which is a lot but I’ll err on the side of caution.
Total cost $173,220
Take the $96,000 interest and $25,000 property tax. I’m in the 31% bracket. 31% saved is $37,510. And yes I already have enough deductions to be well over the standard as it is. I will get 100% of the interest/tax paid deductible. And given our current dear leader’s plan, that 31% will be higher, probably 33%. But again, to be conservative I will use 31%.
My total cost is now $173,220-37510 = $135,710
I’m up $44,290 vs. renting.
Let’s say you’re all right and the value of houses keeps dropping. Say it’s down 15% by the end of the 5th year when I go to sell. I sell the house for $510,000. Over the 5 years my principal is down to $367,000. I pay the principal back and am left with $143,000. I put down $200,000 I lose 57,000. But I saved $44,290 compared to renting. Sp my overall loss is $12,710.
I’m not about to lose sleep over $12K. And in my example property tax would be lower in year 5 if the value is down 15%, while rent will have increased, if not every year at least 2 of the 5 years, bringing that $12K to a few thousand if that.
Two flaws:
1) Why are you settling for 1% return on $200K? Try 2.5%. (Half in a CD at 2% and the other half at 3%)
2) Might be a nice idea to insure the place.
Looking forward to your recalc.
More flawed assumptions:
>And in my example property tax would be lower in year 5 if the value is down 15%, while rent will have increased, if not every year at least 2 of the 5 years, bringing that $12K to a few thousand if that.
He assumes that because his house value has fallen property tax will automatically fall as much percentage wise. Guess he missed all the HBB articles on how cities/states across the country are jacking up property tax rates to compensate for falling property values.
Also, he assumes rents keep going up every year, EVEN WHILST house values keep going down, making his comparison better to his example. Again I guess he missed all the HBB articles about rents falling in many places.
“And in my example property tax would be lower in year 5 if the value is down 15%…”
i got a real estate tax appeals professional sitting next to me with 12 years experience that is laughing at this assumption.
Very true, your value may go down, but htey will just up the Mill rate, your actual taxes will almost always go UP.
Of course they could decide to spend less (spits coffee all over monitor), in which case Eddie might be right…..
where is this house that has less than 1% property tax?
Not only that, but what taxing body would settle for less revenue from property taxes regardless of assessed value? Tax assessments are only part of the equation.
Are people not following the ongoing implosion in state/county/muni revenue? Do people really think property taxes will go down in proportion to “prices”? (or even go down at all)
Could be in my neck of the woods. We’re seniors so there are some extra exemptions, but our tax bill is about 0.5% of what we paid for our house in 2005. In 2008 the state raised the sales tax to take over a significant portion of school funding, and property taxes went down significantly as a result.
BTW, there was a news article in the local paper this week about how one of the county commissioners wants to refund at least part of the surplus they currently have, but the others didn’t go along.
and his rent is too high. In my area of CA i can rent a $600k house for closer to $2000 per month. I passed up on a nice one that was 2600 sq ft on 5 acres for $1600 per mo as I could not convince the wife to move again.
Prop tax: NM is about .60 percent. A lot less if you bought a while ago as there are way behind in current valuation.
i agree.
i’m paying $ 2,500 a month for a townhouse in the DC Metro area that is 5 minutes from my office.
it’s “value” is 650K.
CCDude. where is this? Lease is up very soon..
unless LL renegotiates lower, am moving to much cheaper digs.
Stash some mega cash.
the place for $1600 had many applicants, I won, but wife vetoed (I am still pissed) It is taken. In North SLO County.
get in line, landlord had over a dozen apps, I won. Wife vetoed. in north county SLO. It needed cleaning up, but great location and room for toys.
“Looking forward to your recalc.”
Don’t suffocate yourself while holding your breath…
Maybe I’ll do it myself
Rent less interest income from downpayment:
(36,000-200,000(.025)(.69)) * 5 = 162750
Cost to own:
96,000 (interest) + 25,000 (p tax) - 37,500 (tax ded, note 1) + 12,500 (maint) + 20,000 (insurance, note 2) + 30,000 (RE commision on sale) + 15,000 (other closing costs, buy and sell) = 161000
Pretty much break even if the house price stays flat.
Note 1: I think there should be some sort of offset here, as a renter would benefit from the basic deduction.
Note 2: Pure guess, not enough detail.
Don’t forget that the Fed will likely have to raise interests off the floor to contain inflation over the next couple of years, and the various other props under the housing market (e.g. first-time buyer credit) will also be removed as the economy recovers.
Conclusion: Flat prices over the next five years are optimistic, and a modest loss (compared to the ludicrous bubble price run up) of 15 percent on a $600,000 house would generate a capital loss of
0.15 * $600,000 = $90,000.
Check my math, Eddie!
I noted the comments above that the rent is too high, that $2000-2500/month is more likely. So:
Cost of renting less interest income:
(30000 - 200,000(.025)(.69)) * 5 = 132750
Cost of owning (from above) = 161000
A loss of $28,250 if prices remain flat.
Why does Eddie even care? He’s timed every major market move just about perfectly for the last few years. He shorted companies that went broke. He was talking about 1000x ROI. He should buy himself a private island.
Don’t forget that the Fed will likely have to raise interests off the floor to contain inflation over the next couple of years
Oh PLEASE Lord…
What gives you the idea that it is even possible to buy homeowner’s insurance in the hurricane / tornado zone?
Like I said yesterday, knock yourself out.
Plus I think you’re lowballing your opportunity cost for the downpayment money, but that’s just me.
You can’t subtract the value of taxes not paid from the money you already paid out. If you want to add the extra taxes you’d pay by renting to the actual cost of renting, that’s OK. But less tax paid in any bracket does NOT equal actual money put back into your pocket!
If the house is in Florida, calculate late a 50% reduction in price.
Is that before or after five more years of tornadoes and hurricane play nature’s version of Russian roulette with the $600,000 home he plans to buy?
A couple more points.
You’re forgetting about the loan costs(points/closing costs/fees).
You’re forgetting about realtor commission(5%).
You’re forgetting about insurance.
Hi Eddie,
Other than your interest assumption seems odd and you would need to insure the home, I think the primary driver for many these days is the employment picture, which is depressingly real, but not a one-for-one mathematical comparison.
It seems like every day there is some city in the news that is losing a major employer or seeing thousands laid off. You can leave a month’s rent and a security deposit on the kitchen counter and get the heck out of Dodge a lot easier than selling a 600K property, IMHO.
Being stuck with a 600K property in a shell shocked town could be the downside you are not considering.
eddie…also change the facts for the mortgages today.
3.5% down and a 6% mortage.
now what do you get?
I think he’s using his personal situation with having $200K to lose on a house purchase.
Your calculation is wrong, because you neglected the opportunity cost of parking $200K in a falling knife real estate investment for five years.
I’d so much rather park $200k in T-bills than a house, particularly with my constant non-secure job situation. 0.38% interest is fine by me. Actually, $140k is in 4%-yielding municipal bonds and $153k is in Treasuries yielding somewhere between 3 and 5 percent.
I like your rolling bond strategy. There is actually a pension fund management strategy that works along the same lines…
Thank you! It helps me sleep at night knowing my “safe” opens every four weeks to allow me to pay rent in case I am short on cash.
“The beauty of math is it doesn’t lie.”
Figures don’t lie, but liars do figure.
Eddie, at 200:1 ($600K to buy vs. $3K to rent) there is NO WAY you’ll be better off buying.
Did you calculate how your rent in future years is likely to go DOWN?
Wow. Not sure I’ve ever seen someone go down in flames so violently and completely. Going to take some ropes and pitons to get to the bottom of that crater.
Stupid is as stupid does…
“Wow. Not sure I’ve ever seen someone go down in flames so violently and completely.”
You almost owed me a new keyboard over that one.
In 5 years when I sell:
Why 5 years?
“Two options for me: Rent for $3000 or buy for $600K.”
I’m glad I’m not stuck with your options, and I’m sad that I’m a taxpayer.
EddieTards sanctimonious pandering is flawed right from the first lying word.
The fact is there isn’t a house in all of Florida worth $600k.
Nice try EddieTard.
>If I leave my $200K in a MM account I will lose $2K per year in interest, which is $1380 after tax. Over 5 years that’s $6900.
What do you mean you lose $2k per year in interest? You are assuming 1% interest rate for 5 years, so you make $2k per year in interest, not lose $2k per year. A quick search on best CD rates, which is more valid comparison than a MM since you gave a fixed time frame of 5 years, shows that some credit unions are offering 60-months CDs at as high as 4.25% per year. That means income of $8,500 per year in interest and $5,865 after tax assuming it doesn’t drive up your marginal rate past 31% (which I doubt since it is only a few thousand dollars more per year). Over 5 years that’s $29,325, much more than $6,900.
See if you are gonna do a 5 years fixed time frame comparison, you should pick a comparison that is valid for that fixed time frame you are using.
I don’t have time to read your other arguments in your post now, but I will leave it for others to shoot some holes.
Oops that should have gone under Eddie’s “Why buying is better than renting” thread.
I think Eddie should buy all of the houses he can get his hands on- hell, buy 100 of ‘em if he wants. Knock yourself out, Eddie.
Maybe if he is nice to his masters at Megabank, Inc, they will fund his real estate investing spree with zero-percent financing?
I don’t stink. ~ H.Chavez
Hugo Chavez: No Singing in the Shower Amid Water Concerns
Friday, October 23, 2009
Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez told citizens Wednesday to limit their showers to three minutes because the country is having problems supplying water and electricity.
“Some people sing in the shower, in the shower half an hour,” he said during a televised cabinet meeting. “No kids, three minutes is more than enough. I’ve counted, three minutes, and I don’t stink.”
Chavez said low rainfall caused by El Nino meant water levels were at critically low levels in the El Guri reservoir, one of the world’s largest dams.
“If you are going to lie back, in the bath, with the soap and you turn on the what’s it called, the Jacuzzi … imagine that, what kind of communism is that? We’re not in times of Jacuzzi,” Chavez said.
He called on state-run organizations to immediately cut energy consumption by 20 percent and mentioned using airplanes to force rain from clouds.
I wonder if BHO has finished the book Chavez gave him.
There could be important lessons therein.
What kind of communism will we in Gringoland accept for our future??? Wouldn’t call them “Jacuzzi times” here, either.
What kind of communism will we in Gringoland accept for our future???
The kind we have now: corporate.
“Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez told citizens Wednesday to limit their showers to three minutes because the country is having problems supplying water and electricity.”
I wonder if he’ll spot each citizen a kitchen timer to help in the efforts.
smart man, as water is priceless. the planet can grow enough food, but fresh water is a problem.
“…water is priceless.”
So is salt.
So is oxygen.
So is food.
So is Vitamin C.
So are artichokes.
All of these are priceless.
OK, maybe not artichokes…
And how is it that one grows ‘enough’ food without fresh water? ‘Tis a puzzlement…
What’s worse, the more food one grows, the less fresh water one has left, as indicated by the dwindling salmon populations which used to spawn in California coastal fresh water streams.
If we grew food in areas more suited to it, rather than on monster corporate farms in the desert, then we’d use less water, energy, etc in growing and distributing our food. And we’d have healthier food and fewer nation-wide food poisoning scares. The downside would be that the big boyz would make less money, so don’t expect it to happen anytime soon.
“The downside would be that the big boyz would make less money, so don’t expect it to happen anytime soon.”
Doesn’t that almost always turn out to be the downside of proposals which are in the interest of the greater good of society? And the freakin’ Megabanks have such a concentration of financial fire power, lobbyists focused on buying politicians, and Goldman Sachs alums planted in high government posts, the common good doesn’t stand a chance.
Man pleads guilty to DWI in motorized La-Z-Boy
A motorized La-Z-Boy chair driven by Dennis Anderson of Proctor was operating when he hit a parked vehicle …
(AP) DULUTH, Minn. – A Minnesota man has pleaded guilty to driving his motorized La-Z-Boy chair while drunk. A criminal complaint says 62-year-old Dennis LeRoy Anderson told police he left a bar in the northern Minnesota town of Proctor on his chair after drinking eight or nine beers.
Prosecutors say Anderson’s blood alcohol content was 0.29, more than three times the legal limit, when he crashed into a parked vehicle in August 2008. He was not seriously injured.
Police said the chair was powered by a converted lawnmower and had a stereo and cup holders.
Sixth Judicial District Judge Heather Sweetland stayed 180 days of jail time Monday and ordered two years of probation for Anderson. His attorney, David Keegan, did not immediately return a call for comment.
This is just plain silly, because:
1) Everyone knows home prices will bottom out by the end of the next twelve months (not by next March);
2) The “better than expected” current used home sales numbers suggest “better than expected” purchase demand.
This sounds to me more like a plug for renewal of the first-time buyer credit than any kind of meaningful forecast.
Real Estate Weekly
Oct. 23, 2009, 2:10 p.m. EDT
This week’s Real Estate stories
By MarketWatch
One forecast out this week on home prices is calling the bottom for March 2010, saying the expiration of the first-time home-buyer tax credit at the end of November will keep downward pressure on home prices into the spring.
…
“One forecast out this week on home prices is calling the bottom for March 2010, saying the expiration of the first-time home-buyer tax credit at the end of November will keep downward pressure on home prices into the spring”.
And what happens next spring? Increased demand? If the 8k is pushing sales and I am sure it has a great deal to do with it. Then upon it’s demise sales will not burst forth.
The FED is playing with dynamite, keeping rates low this long will backfire,the time to start raising them has passed. At some point, they will rise,with or without the FED and the whipsaw effect will occur.
“And what happens next spring?”
That is when the first green shoots of the red hot summer sales season will appear
“At some point, they will rise,with or without the FED and the whipsaw effect will occur.”
Inflation seems likely to arise, along with a familiar refrain: ‘No one could have seen it coming.’
First time I have heard of a chain saw referred to as an “outdoor” appliance! I must live off the paved road.
Swedish appliance maker Husqvarna to cut 400 jobs
Associated Press
STOCKHOLM — Swedish outdoor appliance maker Husqvarna AB on Friday said it plans to cut 400 jobs, mostly in Sweden and the U.S., by closing down some of its plants and offices and relocating several production units to Poland and China.
The news was announced in conjunction with the company’s third-quarter earnings results, in which it reported an 8 percent drop in net profit to 132 million kronor ($20 million).
In all, 1,200 employees will be affected, although that figure also includes job transfers and new hires, Husqvarna spokeswoman Asa Stenqvist said.
Though specific numbers were not given for the U.S., the group said it would relocate its production of chainsaws and handheld products from DeQueen, Ar. to Nashville in the same state and transfer its office in Augusta, Ga. to Charlotte, N.C.
The changes - aimed at consolidating operations, cutting costs and avoiding duplicated production - will start this year and continue in 2010.
The measures are expected to cost around 400 million kronor, and annual savings are estimated to reach around 400 million kronor with full effect as of 2012.
7 banks have been closed tonight.
Crazy. It topped 100 for the year in an article I saw right at 5PM. Within 30 minutes it had increased by another 6!
(Hey PB, what’s the annualized rate based on the above?
)
It must feel good. I had the feeling the banking system was getting a bit constipated (kind of like the housing market with that huge intestinal pressure buildup of shadow inventory that has yet to hit the market — volcanic eruption due any day now!).
Of course, one typically doesn’t want an episode of constipation to end involuntarily, which I have the feeling may be the case, as six banks is a lot to fail on one day, even on FDIC Friday.
Now as to that annual rate calculation, I got the number of FDIC-insured institutions here (I presume this is a reliable data source):
Key Statistics
FDIC-Insured Institutions
Number as of 10/22/2009 8,104
By my own calculation, the number as of 10/23/2009 is 8,104 - 7 = 8,097, and the number as of the beginning of 2009 was about* 8,097 + 106 = 8,104 + 99 = 8,203.
The number of days so far in 2009 is
31 + 28 + 31 + 30 + 31 + 30 + 31 + 31 + 30 + 23 = 296 days, out of a total of 365.
So the annualized rate of 106 bank failures since the beginning of 2009 through 10/23/2009 is approximately
((8,097/8,203)^(365/296)-1)*100 = -1.6 percent.
‘Tis a mere flesh wound!
*Only considering attrition, not new bank creation, mergers, spinoffs, etc.
Cheers, bad chile!
Thank you. What better way to break the century mark but buy rolling a natural?
* The Wall Street Journal
* OCTOBER 24, 2009
Strapped Borrowers Head to Court
Homeowners Press Mortgage Servicers to Rule They Are Eligible for Loan Modifications
By RUTH SIMON
Some struggling homeowners are turning to the courts in a bid to force mortgage servicers to consider them for the Obama administration’s foreclosure-rescue program, arguing they are eligible for help but haven’t received it.
The suits are the latest sign of difficulties some borrowers are having with the program, which has helped more than 500,000 people begin trial loan modifications since it was announced in February.
The program requires mortgage servicers to screen borrowers for eligibility for modifications before completing a foreclosure. But a growing number of borrowers say this isn’t happening, or that their requests for help are improperly rejected by the servicers, which collect loan payments and work with delinquent borrowers.
Homeowner Wins Break from Bank
“People are unbelievably frustrated with the way [the modification program] is working because it is so nontransparent, and because there is such a basic distrust of servicers,” said Ira Rheingold, executive director of the National Association of Consumer Advocates, a group of attorneys and consumer advocates who work with homeowners facing foreclosure.
“I am not saying that the program is perfect,” said Assistant Treasury Secretary Michael Barr, “but we are doing what we promised to do.” He said the administration had already reached its initial goal of getting 500,000 borrowers on trial loan modifications by Nov. 1. He added that servicers have improved their performance under the program, “but they still need to do better.”
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The competition for REIC-funded campaign contributions is underway! All the better, since the “first-time buyer” tax credit program is rife with fraud, which makes it very appealing to like-minded Senators. It is telling that the Senate is taking its directions straight from the mouth of an NAR spokesman.
* The Wall Street Journal
* OCTOBER 23, 2009, 3:27 P.M. ET
Home-Buyer Tax Credit Proposals Compete in Senate
By COREY BOLES
WASHINGTON — Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D., Nev.) floated a new version of a popular home-buyer tax-credit extension, and aides say he aims to have a vote on the measure as part of the coming debate over extending federal unemployment insurance benefits.
The alternative proposal would continue the $8,000 credit for four months past its current Nov. 30 expiration, and gradually phase it out after that.
The value of the credit would drop by $2,000 every quarter until it halted completely by the end of 2010.
The proposal is the latest of at least three different Senate alternatives to ensure the credit doesn’t expire at the end of November.
Another would increase its limit to $15,000 as well as opening it up to all home buyers, instead of just first-time buyers as is currently the case. That plan would also raise the income thresholds to allow more people to qualify for the credit.
Yet another plan would simply extend the credit in its current form through June.
Lucien Salvant, a spokesman for the National Association of Realtors, said the group believed the most generous of the three extensions, backed by Sens. Christopher Dodd (D., Conn.) and Johnny Isakson (R., Ga.) would be the most effective in spurring home sales.
“It covers the first two quarters of 2010, especially the second quarter, which is the height of the spring buying season,” Mr. Salvant said.
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If this program is so attractive to tax cheaters, why is it again that the Senate is so eager to renew it? And where does Turbo Tax Timmy stand on it?
* The Wall Street Journal
* OCTOBER 23, 2009
Home-Buyer Credit Tempts Tax Cheats
By MARTIN VAUGHAN and JOHN D. MCKINNON
Tens of thousands of people submitted suspicious — and possibly fraudulent — claims for a federal tax credit meant for first-time home buyers, tax officials told Congress Thursday.
video
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The credit’s main sponsor, Sen. Johnny Isakson (R., Ga.), said he is “cautiously optimistic” that an extension — with procedural safeguards added — can move in the Senate next week. “Just because someone used fraud [to claim the credit] doesn’t mean the credit is a bad idea, it means there are some bad folks running around,” he said.
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Buy your McMansion now, or get priced out forever!!!
* HOUSE TALK
* OCTOBER 23, 2009, 5:54 P.M. ET
Fewer McMansions on the Horizon
Builders Have Little Incentive to Create More McMansions and Hardly Anyone is Buying. There are Deals Out There, But You Better Act Fast.
By JUNE FLETCHER
If you’re looking to buy a brand-new McMansion in the ‘burbs, you’d better act fast. With home prices this low there’s not much incentive for builders to start new houses. And inventories are getting razor-thin: Economists and analysts at the National Association of Home Builders fall construction conference in Washington, D.C. on Wednesday pointed out that the current 7.3-month supply of new homes is the lowest it’s been since 1992.
Moreover, most of the summer’s pickup in home sales and starts, which has since abated, could be attributed to the $8,000 first-time home buyer’s tax credit. With that credit slated to end on Nov. 30—and with continuing problems securing money to build—builders have little incentive to ramp up their production of new homes.
Many places will take years to rebound. Rockville, Md. builder Robert Mitchell says these days he’ll only build a home when he has contract in hand, because his lenders won’t advance money for speculative building. “We sold off our standing inventory,” he says.
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wow - great stuff today, top to bottom (as always)!
Love you guys - keep it coming.