Bits Bucket For October 29, 2009
Post off-topic ideas, links and Craigslist finds here. Please visit the HBB Forum.
Examining the home price boom and its effect on owners, lenders, regulators, realtors and the economy as a whole.
Post off-topic ideas, links and Craigslist finds here. Please visit the HBB Forum.
Another glowing example of a wildly efficient gubmint program.
Clunkers: Taxpayers paid $24,000 per car
Auto sales analysts at Edmunds.com say the pricey program resulted in relatively few additional car sales.
NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) — A total of 690,000 new vehicles were sold under the Cash for Clunkers program last summer, but only 125,000 of those were vehicles that would not have been sold anyway, according to an analysis released Wednesday by the automotive Web site Edmunds.com.
The program gave car buyers rebates of up to $4,500 if they traded in less fuel-efficient vehicles for new vehicles that met certain fuel economy requirements. A total of $3 billion was allotted for those rebates.
The average rebate was $4,000. But the overwhelming majority of sales would have taken place anyway at some time in the last half of 2009, according to Edmunds.com. That means the government ended up spending about $24,000 each for those 125,000 additional vehicle sales.
“It is unfortunate that Edmunds.com has had nothing but negative things to say about a wildly successful program that sold nearly 250,000 cars in its first four days alone,” said Bill Adams, spokesman for the Department of Transportation. “There can be no doubt that CARS drummed up more business for car dealers at a time when they needed help the most.”
They should have made it the cash-for-perfectly-good-used-cars program. That way the program would have pulled cars off the road that weren’t going to the scrap heap this year anyway.
And once again I ask to one and all….do you want these same incompetent imbeciles to run your health care system? They can’t manage a $4B car buying scheme. But they will somehow better manage a $2T health care industry?!??!
You can apply that arguement to everything.
And once again I ask to one and all….do you want these same incompetent imbeciles to run your military system? They can’t manage a $4B car buying scheme. But they will somehow better manage a $2T defense industry?!??!
Look, I know there’s some major problems with the idea of nationalized health care, but I think they pale in significance next to the current “just die for our profits” system we have now. If you want to argue national healthcare doesn’t work, I’ve been to Europe and Canada and most other first world countries, and they’re system seems just fine to me. If you want to argue that America just isn’t capable of handling something that most of Europe worked out pretty well 30 years ago, that’s another story.
seems fine to me.
That’s the key, isn’t it? Grass is always greener on the other side. Unless you have had to actually experience those systems, you can make all the claims you want.
6% of profit margin, that’s the money the insurance industry makes. Doesn’t seem that much to me.
6% of profit margin, that’s the money the insurance industry makes. Doesn’t seem that much to me.
Well if 50 to 100 billion a year isn’t that much to you can you spare a couple billion.
Also note that profit is calculated after they pay CEO 10’s of millions, and sub CEO’s millions, and pay for advertising and investment management, and lobbying.
They strip 22-24 cents of every health care dollar goes to this type of crap vs something like 6 cents for Medicare and VA and other gov plans.
Another common misconception. My wife works for a Fortune 500 co. and actually they are ’self-insured’. CIGNA just ‘administrates’ the plan, processes claims etc.
There just isn’t a lot of room for profit in those types of relationships. Is there waste? Probably, but not nearly as much as we’d like to think. Again, anything to keep the topic off the -cost- of healthcare.
All those self-insuring big companies would continue to self-insure under any of the new proposals. Except, when they fire people and those folks are still unemployed 18 months later, they will have the option of buying into a private group plan or a government group plan (and no getting denied for pre-existing conditions) when they give up trying to get a new full-time job and have to go for 15 hours a week of consulting at one third or their former pay.
Tons of the angry people at the meeting with the congressmen were worried that someone was going to mess with their Medicare. Seems that they liked the government run insurance system just fine.
polly,
Even though we have no way of knowing ‘all’ of that is going to necessarily happen.., I’ll give it to you anyway.
My point was a great many people going off half-cocked over “the evil insurers” don’t even understand what their true role ( in many cases ) IS!
And granted, the scenario you describe shouldn’t surprise anyone.
Seems that they liked the government run insurance system just fine.
Everyone involved in a Ponzi scheme likes it - until it collapses. Then - not so much.
Technically Medicare isn’t a “Ponzi” scheme I know, but the principle is the same - it’s not self-sustaining revenue-wise.
(from May 12)
WASHINGTON (AP) — Social Security and Medicare are fading even faster under the weight of the recession, heading for insolvency years sooner than previously expected, the government warned Tuesday. Social Security will start paying out more in benefits than it collects in taxes in 2016*, a year sooner than projected last year, and the giant trust fund will be depleted by 2037, four years sooner, trustees reported.
“Medicare is in even worse shape. The trustees said the program for hospital expenses will pay out more in benefits than it collects this year, just as it did for the first time in 2008. The trustees project that the Medicare fund will be depleted by 2017, two years earlier than the date projected in last year’s report.”
* Note - this actually happened in 2009 - way worse than predicted even in May!
Measton,
I get your anger here but it is hard to run any insurance business where you only use 6% of each dollar with out leaving yourself very vunerable to fraud and deception.
Just try to work things out from that perspective.
The government does do things in medicare at those kind of loading rates. They also get killed on fraud.
Good luck.
I worked in Fortune 500 corporate finance from 1998-2007. Health benefit costs went from $3,000 per employee per year to $10,000 per employee per year from 2000 to 2005. That’s right - the cost per employee more than tripled over 5 years.
This is one of the biggest reasons that big employers are so anxious to outsource workers and downsize their staffs, and it’s also why jobs are not going to come back without health care reform.
Here is what I don’t understand about that kind of STOOPID thinking.
So why did employers give people including executives any (or Cola) pay raises during those 5 years?
Hey You ‘re still making the same base rate as 7 years ago plus we gave you a raise of $7K, but it all went to paying your insurance so why did we stoopidly outsource the jobs?
————————————————–
This is one of the biggest reasons that big employers are so anxious to outsource workers and downsize their staffs,
did you actually talk to any Canadian folks? they would tell you that they prefer the US health system where you don’t have to schedule out weeks out for operations. 3rd world health care is what Canada is offering folks.
Having spent much time in Canada, I’m gonna have to respond with:
[citation needed]
A Canadian here. Our system isn’t perfect, but it’s good. Waaaaaay above 3rd world standards. It varies from region to region. I’m thinking only very rich Canadians would prefer the US system.
I’m thinking only very rich Canadians would prefer the US system.
This is what I have heard from Canadians as well. FWIW, I know of no industrialized nations where the citizenry is clamoring to switch to our overpriced “for profit” system.
I think the problem is the US system used to be good. and for many it still is but not all employees are created equal even w/in the same company. Our family will never hit the “very rich” designation but all my surgeries were covered w/very moderate co-pays. A recent Marketwatch writer reported her baby cost her $700 in medical fees. A few years ago I paid about 2% of that cost. If I’d still worked at my previous employer w/only HMO coverage I would have paid hundreds more back then.
My friends with the CEO Dad don’t pay for braces and even for the Mom’s more cosmetic dental fixes. Our dental wont’ cover orthodontics at all. I’ll cough up 40% for my crowns. NY teachers are covered 100%. Our insurer reports they write hundreds of different policies for my DH’s employer. I’ve always assumed that meant different coverage for different pay tiers.
I think many with better insurance have no real idea just what’s going on for everyone else. And in the meantime simply dismiss the hubbub as whining. In general we’re a narcissistic nation. If it’s not affecting them personally, they don’t really give a crap!”
At the same time, I think people’s opinions as to their own coverage are more reliable than their suppositions about what others have. And just as with many of the bubble “victim” stories, there is a curious lack of information in many of the sad sack stories the media has been trotting out in support of “reform.” I can think of some outrageous cases of denial-of-coverage myself, but I don’t think they warrant *comprehensive* reform efforts, of which I am always leery. There is just too much self-serving crap that gets thrown into these monster bills.
“There is just too much self-serving crap that gets thrown into these monster bills.”
+100
Being over 65, my wife and I are on Medicare. We are both quite satisfied with it so far.
Folks, another name for Medicare is the “public option.” And if it’s good enough for seniors, why not let everyone in? For a senior to be against the public option is almost as bad as someone who would allow abortion on demand yet be against the death penalty. For the record, I’m for both.
HOWEVER, cost constraints will ultimately cause the public health system to be very different from what we have now in terms of availability and care. You will likely never see the same doctor twice. When you do see a doc, mostly likely English will not be his or her native tongue. For most visits you will be seen by a nurse-practitioner who graduated from a community college. Care WILL be rationed, there WILL be long waits for some procedures, and the politically-connected WILL go to the head of the line. None of this will happen overnight, but over a generation.
As long as you accept all that, no problemo.
“Our dental wont’ cover orthodontics at all. I’ll cough up 40% for my crowns.”
I remember having my first root canal about three years ago. Having no dental insurance, my dentist gave me a cash discount, and the bill was roughly $300. My neighbor, who had insurance, had a root canal done the following week with a different dentist. The portion he was responsible for, roughly 50%, was nearly $400, and more than mine!
I remember having my first root canal about three years ago. Having no dental insurance, my dentist gave me a cash discount,
Having dental ins, my root canal 5 yrs ago with cash discount cost me $1,600.
The seniors around the valley all like the medicare. So, along with Billincarolina- why not us?
“Folks, another name for Medicare is the “public option.” And if it’s good enough for seniors, why not let everyone in?”
Because it’s insolvent, Bill. Yes Medicare is neato for those covered right now, but it (and VA, Medicaid) requires shifting of true costs to the rest of us on non-govt policies. I don’t mind too much that it covered my parents and their generation so well, because they went through some sh!t in their lives. But if we expand to “Medicare for All” (which is exactly what some of the single-payers have been hyping) for us boomers, where are we going to shift the true costs? I don’t think the system can handle it.
Many docs are dropping Medicare patients and some are opting out of the insurance system entirely.
An interesting blog by a retired surgeon who wants universal health but is very critical of the current proposals:
http://abriefhistory.org/?cat=184
Because it’s insolvent
In 3 words - there it is.
Actually it’s not insolvent yet; back in May the projections were revised to show it being insolvent in 2017 (zero funds left), and running a deficit starting this year.
However they also projected Social Security to start running deficits in 2016 and be insolvent in 2037 - but surprise - SS started running deficits a bit earlier than expected - last month in fact. So being that those May projections were proven tremendously optimistic - most likely Medicare will be insolvent long before the recent 2017 projection.
GrizzlyBear!
That is such a cool, cool story! Can you believe it? I used to work for a company w/ about 2,000 employees and that is -exactly- how we were covered!
I think I got more benefit out of a cash-house plan than I ‘ever’ have out of an insurance ‘plan’. Thanks for sharing that.
It seems to me the real ‘fundamental’ is that pretty much every other advanced nation in the world spends less on health care per person, the people have longer life expectancies, and polls show higher levels of satisfaction with their systems than we have.
What’s more basic than spending less and getting better results? Is America uniquely incapable of doing what all these other countries have been doing for some time?
Montana and Packman,
Yes, Medicare and Medicaid are insolvent. That’s why I pointed out some of the ways that medical care will be FAR different once it’s universal. For seniors, it will ultimately be nothing more than the two P’s: Preventive and Palliative. That chart showing expenditure per patient vs. patient’s age which Rahm Emanuel’s MD brother is touting WILL come to pass. Any other model would be unsustainable.
Many years ago I flew back from the far east after a business trip. Seated next to me on the plane was a woman who was returning after an 8-year stint in Japan. We struck up a conversation about life in Japan and she told me the following. In all the time she spent there, she never once saw a disabled adult or child on the street, in a store or restaurant, or anywhere else. That was chilling.
Bill
Montana and Packman,
Yes, Medicare and Medicaid are insolvent. That’s why I pointed out some of the ways that medical care will be FAR different once it’s universal. For seniors, it will ultimately be nothing more than the two P’s: Preventive and Palliative. That chart showing expenditure per patient vs. patient’s age which Rahm Emanuel’s MD brother is touting WILL come to pass. Any other model would be unsustainable.
Many years ago I flew back from the far east after a business trip. Seated next to me on the plane was a woman who was returning after an 8-year stint in Japan. We struck up a conversation about life in Japan and she told me the following. In all the time she spent there, she never once saw a disabled adult or child on the street, in a store or restaurant, or anywhere else. That was chilling.
Bill
Yes.
To alpha’s point above “polls show higher levels of satisfaction with their systems than we have” - alpha, were the people who died prematurely included in that poll? I’m guessing no.
(”prematurely” meaning people who would not have died otherwise if given access to the “more expensive” health care in the U.S.).
Nonetheless - it’s not a stretch to believe that people are going to be happier with health care if it’s not self-funding - see the comment above about Medicare.
It’s the same reason why people like libraries and Smithsonian museums so much - they’re “free”. If people had to pay directly out of pocket on a per-usage basis, such that funding was self-sustaining, then they wouldn’t be so happy with them. What’s ignored in the “polls” is the lost opportunity costs - the other facets of society that are worse off than they otherwise would be because money is subtracted from them, via higher taxes and/or inflation.
Another STOOOOOPID idea;
Lets face it we don’t manufacture much anymore so missing teeth, bad breath, and bad smile is NOT GOOD for the New employment market
So what to do is you are out of work and no insurance and have very little money.
We need Leaders and New thinkers in America.
————————–
“Our dental wont’ cover orthodontics at all. I’ll cough up 40% for my crowns.”
But they spend less on health care per person than we do! So we are the ones suffering lost opportunity costs.
Yes, we are, but the opportunity costs are borne by those who are willing and able to bear them, not by the general populace.
(for the most part)
Also something not discussed much is that a large part of the reason we have higher health care costs is that we generally have a less-healthy lifestyle than most of the world. That lifestyle won’t change due to socialized medicine - in fact it’ll probably get worse.
So American health care costs per person won’t decrease under socialized medicine - they’ll increase, other things being equal (e.g. if end-of-life care wasn’t changed).
Americans who have health coverage (whether it’s Medicare, Medicaid, or commercial) don’t seem to take very kindly to being denied any treatment which they think they need (or have seen on the Internet, or in a drug commercial).
They bitch. Long and loud.
They sue the insurer (and often they win)
They raise hell with legislators (and they win there, a lot)
One thing they do -not- do is just quietly go away when told that a treatment is too costly or insufficiently tested.
This is what makes me confident that Obamacare will never really reduce per capita medical costs - there will never be anything like an effectiveness review with teeth.
We’ll keep providing every service that Congress thinks it needs to provide in order to win the next election, borrowing and taxing as needed, until the whole thing comes to a crashing halt.
THEN you won’t need any “death panels”. Death will happen by default.
it’s insolvent, Bill.
It wouldn’t be if the CONgress had passed a bill allowing Medicare to negotiate LOWer med costs etc, JUST LIKE THE MILITARY program, but NOOOOOOOO, the bill is designed BY and FOR the corporate INS corps.
And WHY do you who are so Protective of INS corps? WHY. They aren’t Free enterprise, nor capitalism as you “say they are”, they are crooks and making money hand over fist, and hand up your.. Why is it so beneath you to have the MONOPOLY taken away?
I just don’t get it. It is like you guys who are so damn protective of the INS corps want to protect the evil king.
stint in Japan. We struck up a conversation about life in Japan and she told me the following. In all the time she spent there, she never once saw a disabled adult or child on the street, in a store or restaurant, or anywhere else. That was chilling.
She is absolutely correct. I noticed that in 1974-77 and I notice it every time I am in Japan, monthly. It is amazing that they are so healthy and we are not.
Bill in Carolina,
Of course he is happy w/ Medicare. He thinks it is free. Wake the “F” up dude.
Man, my whole point got lost although 1/2 of it keeps getting picked up for rebuttal:
I wasn’t complaining that I had to pay for ortho or partial on crowns. I was making a basis for comparison saying a friend of mine has everything paid for even her cosmetic work and teachers have crowns covered 100%. So when people say insurance in America is good enough, unless they’re in the business and see the big picture, they can really only speak for their own personal policy.
And once again I ask to one and all….do you want these same incompetent imbeciles to run your military system? They can’t manage a $4B car buying scheme. But they will somehow better manage a $2T defense industry?!??!
Funny how neocons have no problem with $400/gallon gas and $600 hammers, but heaven forbid we provide a minimum level of healthcare coverage to hard working, middle class Americans who aren’t lucky enough to get coverage at work.
I read the other day that it costs over 750K per year to have a pair of boots in the middle east. Some people are getting very rich off the endless war. Too bad it isn’t the people putting their hides on the line over there.
Ahh the old two wrongs make a right argument. The military is inefficient so let’s make health just as inefficient. Brilliant idea.
Well at least you accept the premise that health care run by Obama will be a disatser and lead to the equivalent of spending $400/gallon. The question remains why in the world would you want that?
Strawman!
I never said that a wasteful military justifies an inefficienct healthcare system. Just pointing how how neo-cons like yourself value wasting money on pointless wars more than taking care of their fellow Americans.
Wow, lots of ignorance being posted about this topic. All I can say is — any system is better than none and to those who think our system is better than Canada’s or Europe’s - I can bet my last dollar you have never stepped foot out of your country (or likely your state).
Potential Buyer:
If your life depended on a package arriving tomorrow, would you send it via the U.S. Mail or choose Fed Ex or UPS.
Well, your life does depend on it. See you at the UPS store.
A) I live in Japan and the health care I have experienced here so far has been far better than what I received in the US. I won’t go into it all, but most of the issues back home were with denied claims, retroactive cancellation of policies, and billing errors. The standard of care was the same, but the administration was much, much worse in the US, and the costs were much higher.
B) I think that the left and the right are correct when it comes to US healthcare. The left is correct when they say that national health care works well in other countries, and the right are correct when they say it can’t work in the US.
It comes down to culture. Americans hate government and they have little sense of community or sacrifice. The idea of the individual sacrificing for the greater good is considered communism and despised. When that’s the prevailing attitude, it is impossible to have either good government, or responsible corporate citizenship. The choices Americans face are inept, corrupt, malfeasant government, or corrupt, deceitful, and ruthless corporatocracy.
Government can work, just not in the US. Americans can’t really pull off a massive social project like national health care. And the corporations will just keep robbing people any way they can.
Also, about those 6 percent profits…that’s only because multi-million dollar executive compensation is listed as an expense. The insurance companies show small profit, but the management is getting very, very rich.
Americans hate ..and… have little sense of community or sacrifice. The idea of the individual sacrificing for the greater good is considered communism and despised.
While that is true now, it wasn’t true during the 2 WW’s.
It was considered Patriotic to all pull together for the common good. The Greater Good was paramount to being a US citizen a proud patriotic American.
Now, it is just lip service and NO ONE, ala 9/11 “go shopping” encourages togetherness, being part of the greater good.
Just me me me me or as someone posted later on..
MINE MINE MINE MINE mine mine mine mine mine ala
Finding Nemo.
And for petesake, you certainly wouldn’t want the corp and vps/ceos to not take millions/billions in bonuses and profits.
Heavens to betsy, I worry about those Ceos/vps.
Not.
Regarding lack of disabled in Japan, absence of disabled doesn’t mean that they are healthier (or was I missing some sarcasm?)
http://www.nytimes.com/1996/04/07/world/outcast-status-worsens-pain-of-japan-s-disabled.html
My take on Bill’s comment was that he meant either:
- The disabled aren’t seen because they’re shunned by society (as your article indicates), or
- The disabled aren’t seen because they’re dead, because the Japanese don’t believe in spending extraordinarily to care for them.
Based on his “chilling” comment - I definitely didn’t take it to mean that they’re healthier than other places.
P.S. thanks for the link - that’s interesting.
Wife is Japanese. Been there six times. The disabled are, indeed, invisible. Shame if in public. Sad. Exists across all classes. A hidden unconnected and desperate sub-society. Very sad once you know of its existence.
Cancer survival rates are 50% lower in Europe and Canada compared to the US.
As far as I know, no American has had to be sent to Canada for emergency care. Thousands of Canadians get sent to the US every year due to shortages of hospital space in Canada. And there are also tens of thousands of Canadians that voluntarily go to the US for procedures that their own govt will not provide for them, and pay 100% out of pocket. There are hospitals in Buffalo whose clientele are almost exclusively Canadians.
I asked this before…can you point to any medical advances in Canada in the past 10 years? Either drugs or devices. The answer is no because there is no profit motive to do so in Canada. People love to bitch about the expensive drugs. They forget that for every 1 Lipitor there are 10 drugs that go nowhere but still cost billions to develop.
Luckily enough people are waking up and ObamaCare is looking less and less likely.
“I asked this before…can you point to any medical advances in Canada in the past 10 years?”
For 2005 only:
2005 Developed the world’s first upper respiratory viral panel test that can accurately identify all respiratory viruses including various flu strains including H5N1 and the SARS Coronavirus. (St. Joseph’s Healthcare – Hamilton, Ontario)
2005 In the first trial of its kind in the world, researchers begin treating prostate cancer using a 3-D image-guided radiation therapy device that was developed in Canada. This non-surgical technique allows oncologists to visualize the exact position of the target and deliver precise external beam radiation therapy. (Sunnybrook & Women’s Research Institute — Toronto, Ontario)
2005 Key discovery in Type-1 Diabetes proves the repair process is present within the pancreas during disease development. Understanding the repair process could be the key to successful treatment. (Ottawa Health Research Institute — Ottawa, Ontario)
2005 Study determines that a specific enzyme, known as pro-protein convertase 4 (PC4) may be responsible for fetal growth restriction, the second leading cause of infant mortality in the developed world. Knowledge may lead to screening for the defective enzyme early in the pregnancy and provide the ability to monitor the pregnancy more closely. (Ottawa Health Research Institute — Ottawa, Ontario)
2005 Scientists show that early surgical removal of the spleen combined with antiangiogenic therapy, which arrests the growth of tumour-feeding blood vessels, may stop the progression of leukemia. (Sunnybrook & Women’s Research Institute — Toronto, Ontario)
2005 Using neuropsychological testing, researchers accurately predict which study participants will develop Alzheimer’s disease within five and 10 years. Previous studies were able to predict Alzheimer’s only for shorter periods of time; other studies showed predictions for 10 and even 15 years, but these did not indicate the predictive accuracy of the tests. (Sunnybrook & Women’s Research Institute — Toronto, Ontario)
2005 Identified novel mutations in the gene that causes Rett Syndrome. The discovery is now licenced as a test for the disorder and is available to the public. (Centre for Addiction and Mental Health — Toronto, Ontario)
2005 Initiation of first human clinical gene therapy trials for lipoprotein lipase deficiency. (Provincial Health Services Authority/BC Children’s Hospital – Vancouver, British Columbia)
Those are studies. Doesn’t take much to run a study, every university in the world does that.
I asked for examples of drugs or devices. Things like the next gen MRI or CT Scan. Any Canadian versions of Lipitor? Palvix? Advair? Singulair? Or any of the other drugs that tens of millions of people rely on every year?
This is not a ‘recent’ advance, but illustrates what the US needs from other countries: the isotope Technetium-99, used for many medical diagnostic tests, for which there is no substitute, and no US source.
50% better huh?
“In the August 2008 issue of Lancet Oncology, Micheal Coleman et al, are reporting that the US and Canada have the best survival rates for Cancer. Canada has a cumulative 5-year survival of 82.5% compared to the US’s 91.9%.
There is a lot of debate about the merits of various health care systems (public and private) but a 10% difference in survival is nothing to sneeze at. Canada showed less variation regionally and between races but the difference in overall survival is still stark. It would seem that cancer survival parallels the general impression of universal health care. Less variation at the expense of better outcomes. The data was from 1990-1994. It will be interesting to see if Canada can raise the bar to the level set by the US under universal coverage.”
“I asked for examples of drugs or devices.”
I’m sorry. I thought you were looking for things that made people healthier. You were talking things you can sell.
Eddie said:
Cancer survival rates are 50% lower in Europe and Canada compared to the US.
Some cancer survival rates are better in the US. No one appears to know which ones, and I’ve heard the same argument from many congresscritters over the last few months - which makes me think that its a factiod that’s been cherrypicked to bolster a certain viewpoint.
More importantly, things like infant mortality and life expectancy are abysmally low here - for a 1st world country, anyway.
You’re in a turf war with the likes of Romania for these kinds of stats, which may be fine with you, but makes a bit of a mockery of the “Finest Medical System in the World!” mantra.
Truth is - the US Medical system is fabulous for specialized and expensive procedures - surgery, oncology etc.. which need a lot of expertise and cost a lot of money.
For the bog-standard checkups and preventative care that 90% of the population needs - you suck.
Step and myself started getting into it a couple of B&B’s back - but I guess there’s two questions you have to ask yourself in America…
1) Is medical care a commodity just like any other?
2) Is decent and affordable medical care a privilege or a right?
That’s pretty much it - all of the arguments being played out are subsets of these two questions.
Pick your sides, guys
Also to consider, if you were developing new pharmaceuticals or medical equipment, would you develop them in Canada (small market) and then go into the US after toiling through US regulations, or the other way around? If the US health care system was nearly idendical to Canada, it wouldn’t change where the products come from.
Young female officer told me on Sunday, her 7yo cost $3.75 to deliver. Her 3 yo cost $7.50 to deliver. Her bun in the oven will cost her total of $7.95
She loves the military health coverage.
Who wouldn’t.
Cancer survival rates 5 years after diagnosis
Breast cancer:
US: 63%
Europe: 56%
Prostate:
US: 93%
Europe: 78%
Bladder:
US: 81%
Europe: 66%
So you get “free” health care (buy pay twice the taxes) and have a better chance of dying. What a sweet deal.
“More importantly, things like infant mortality and life expectancy are abysmally low here - for a 1st world count/ry, anyway.”
Here’s why…
In the US any baby delivered live is counted in the statistics of infant mortality. This includes the 20 or 21 week old fetus delivered live but who then dies within minutes or hours.
In Europe only babies 26+ weeks are counted for the purpose of infant mortality.
Ask yourself this…when you or your wife/gf gives birth do you want it to happen in a US hospital or a British hospital? Or even better in a Cuban hospital which according to Mikey Moore is superior to anything we have here.
My wife gave birth not too long ago. There were some complications. We had an army of doctors, nurses and machines that go BING. Then for the next 4 days I don’t think we went 4 hours without a doctor or nurse performing one test or another. Maybe it was a litlle overkill, but when it’s your baby lying there, amazingly enough you don’t ask yourself, “hey I wonder if this test is really necessary”.
And the whole birth including 5 days in the hospital, the team of doctors, nurses, tests, all of it cost me about $2000. I would have paid $20,000 and been happy to do so. Given a choice between the option to pay a lot and get the best care and getting bad care for free, I’ll always take option 1.
So, you point out 3 cancers where the US outperforms other countries (though, “Europe” isn’t actually a country, but that’s another story).
And, you prove my point for me - the US is world class at catastrophic emergency medicine, and not-so-much with the humdrum preventative care that 90% of the population actually require.
Or would do, of they got scans and treatment on a regular basis for a reasonable fee, before the surgeons and oncologists are wheeled in to fix the emergency.
“Maybe it was a litlle overkill, but when it’s your baby lying there, amazingly enough you don’t ask yourself, “hey I wonder if this test is really necessary”.”
But the important thing to remember is only people with good insurance, and thus money, deserve this kind of treatment.
“Given a choice between the option to pay a lot and get the best care and getting bad care for free, I’ll always take option 1.”
False dichotomy. Public health care isn’t bad. It may not be equal to the best available, but that doesn’t make it bad. My premature twins received top notch care by the Ontario heatlh system.
How’s this for a very real choice. You can have poor health care or eat.
“My wife gave birth not too long ago.”
Oh, great, Eddie’s been reproducing. Does that make anybody else feel like they need a drink?
She loves the military health coverage.
1. She earned that coverage..
2. Generics is almost always what we get, but even then, that is good.
3. It’s not always what it’s cracked up to be, like everywhere else they are moving to PA’s and not letting you see a doctor. (No offense to PA’s, but sometimes, we would love to have a doctor.)
4. Some military hospitals get a bad name and sometimes you have to wait a long time for a referral, just like it will be with socialized medicine. Personally, I would rather just have the insurance pay 75% and let me choose my doctor somewhere else and pay the difference, which is what I do sometimes.
From the Lancet
5YS for
Breast
US = 83.9%
Canada =82.5%
Colon Men
US = 60.1
Canada = 56.1
Colon Women
US = 60.1
Canada = 58.7
Prostate
US 91.9
Canada = 85.1
Now consider that we way over diagnose Prostate cancer, 50% of men over 75 or so have prostate cancer but only a minority die of it. We way over diagnose breast cancer. If you diagnose a lot of cancer that isn’t going to cause a problem you cause a lot of morbidity from surgery.
I suspect outcomes are the same when these things are considered.
As far as I know, no Canadians have went bankrupt using their care either. And paying top dollar to have a baby or any kind of surgery is not an option for 90 percent of us.
Just in the last 2.5 years I’ve had two kids and a wife who had back surgery and then another surgery to get at an infection from the back surgery plus a visit to the emergency for my 1-year-old. Total cost with insurance: $1,500 per child, $6,000 for my wife and $1,000 for the emergency room visit. That’s $8,500 that I’m paying down at a clip of $25 a month. You do the math. We’re a one income family making a little bit less than the median average nationally. I for one would welcome a Canadian-style health care system. Cause if anything else happens, I’ll have to go bankrupt.
He didn’t say that he was the father.
Enough already!
Mazel Tov Eddie for the new addition.
My only gripe is that I wish that every family could afford that level of healthcare.
Didn’t it cost that much? Why do you object to paying for it? You wanted it didn’t you? Did you care that you might have to pay a big bill some day? Did you get insurance to cover that bill that might come? What insurance options did you research to cover events like this?
Are you motivated to work hard to make sure you can get this kind of care? Are you tired of having to work hard, and just want life to be easier with someone else paying?
1. She earned that coverage.
Really? How is that?
Let me see, she was in 8 yrs. In San Diego full time.=Hard duty.
Got paid really well, got her teeth done completely with lumineers=good for her!
Getting complete education for dental hygienist Paid For and she gets paid to go to school- ie no bills at all she has to worry about. Good for her.
When she gets her Dental Hygienist degree she will work as civilian for military and get paid $125.00 per hour FT.
She is totally digging her 8 yrs in San Diego tour.
If you had said she earned it by being where you are.YES, but she and so many others are pulling easy duty AFAICS.
1. She earned that coverage.
So! Gov coverage is a GOOD thing? And here everyone was saying how terrible it would be. But now we’re told it’s a special benefit one must earn. A contradiction, perhaps?
One must join the military to earn the ‘privilege’ of government provided health care . At least we agree that it’s a privilege. A privilege that every other developed nation in the world seems to be able to provide to all their citizens. For less than we pay. And they live longer and like their health care systems better.
If you have insurance (70%+ of us), then the system isn’t broken.
If you don’t have insurance, you desperately need a change.
The questions are personal ones. Do you feel that as a society, we have the responsibility to care for those who can’t care for themselves?
If you answer yes to these questions then SOMETHING needs to be done.
Nationalized vs. not is a tougher question. In some markets there is not enough competition (one carrier). I know a business owner who self-insured his employees for a while because there was only one insurance carrier and the cost was ridiculously high. In that particular case, a nationalized system would have brought needed competition into the market.
Here’s my simple solution:
1. You can buy insurance across state lines, subject to the out-of-state carriers conforming to state laws;
2. If you want to sell insurance product, you must offer a basic plan, as defined by the government. This can be competitively priced since it will be identical for all carriers.
3. You must buy insurance if you don’t have any. If you can’t afford it, the government will help you pay for it.
This ONLY works if you also do #4;
4. It should be illegal for healthcare providers to charge different amounts for different customers. If uninsured Joe in the street pays $10,000 for an appendectomy, then Medicare must pay $10,000, Blue Cross must pay $10,000, etc. As it is, the current system of differential pricing based on individual contracts is KILLING the competition in the market, and has driven the consolidation in the industry.
The problem with #4 though is that the biggest beneficiary of the differential pricing is….Medicare. They pay the least of all carriers for different procedures. And we know that they are already looking to be in serious trouble within the decade.
There is no silver bullet in the case of healthcare.
We used to have “basic plans, defined by the government” in many states. Until the chiropractors, dance therapists, naturopaths, Reiki practitioners, etc etc, lobbied non stop to have everything they do included in the mandatory minimum coverage.
dance therapists, naturopaths, Reiki practitioners, etc etc, lobbied non stop to have everything they do included in the mandatory minimum coverage.
Geeze what ins do You have?
Those aren’t covered in UHC or BCBS.
And once again I ask to one and all….do you want these same incompetent imbeciles to run your health care system?
And once again I reply… I don’t want them running the health care system - I want them introducing some level of competition in the arrogant, abusive and incompetent health insurance industry.
That might be enough, thats a different way of thinking about it. I’m not sure. But something has to give.
Competition hasn’t done much good in keeping the arrogant banking industry honest. The health insurance equivalent of credit unions seems like a good step, though (whatever that would look like).
Incompetency is endemic to humans. There is no perfect system.
we have a winner
I’ll have to respectfully disagree. One of the guys in my Guard Unit is a native American and genuinely funny guy. So much so, there’s times when it’s hard to take him serious?
But he said something the other day that absolutely floored me. He said, “Given enough time, and even modest resources, humans will ALWAYS find the most efficient way to do things!”
This is probably ‘most’ true in the home. We may pay fpr premium cable or mag. subscriptions etc. but… in the end we’ll cancel the things we don’t need/use. The problem is, with no direct incentive ( i.e someone ELSE is paying for it… )
Native Americans were never able to invent the wheel.
Where does one person driving across town in an SUV fit into his equation?
Skip, alpha-sloth,
Guys.., “I” thought it as more of an affirmation and validation of people in the work place and people in general.
O.K, I’m a sport, the native people didn’t NEED the all powerful wheel because you need -roads- to make it cost effective. ( I’ll check w/ accounting? ) If you’ve seen rednecks hunt from trucks you’d know why!
Using the-ever-so-popular-and-at-the-ready SUV as the root of all our problems.., I can only say that, implemented as designed they probably carry more people and more cargo more cost effectively than a rickshaw? If someone ‘elects’ by choice to abuse it, don’t hang that on ‘me’.
Easter Island? I think a better statement would be:
Man will be as efficient as circumstances force him to be. (But by that point, it’s often too late.)
Just saying that Native Americans dragged their belongings behind them on wooden poles. A wheel or two would have made it much easier.
That always made me doubt that any Chinese/Norseman who made it to North America ahead of Columbus ever spent anytime interacting with Native Americans.
“…invent the wheel. ” There is some evidence that that the wheel was in limited use. However there were no beasts of burden (horses, cows, oxen) to pull a crude heavy wheel as in Europe. Horses only came with Spaniards. Dogs and Llamas could only pull/carry a few pounds. Thus the wheel was not practical in the Americas.
See Guns, Germs and Steel by D. Diamond
Actually there were quite a few potential beasts of burden in North America when the first humans (later to become ‘native americans’) arrived. Horses, camels, and more. Unfortunately they were pretty much all hunted into extinction, as the early humans cut through the herds of animals unused to human interaction with the same rapacity that man always tends to display when encountering a seemingly endless resource.
North America ahead of Columbus
Just in case you got the OLD history books from the 60s,
a little secret, columbus went to Santo Domingo, not the north american continent. Shhhhhhhh. we’ll keep that secret between us. CC never got to the BIG ISLAND- oops cat is outa the bag again.
Off the top of my head I know of BC/BS, United, Kaiser, Aetna, Celtic and Cigna. 6 companies each competing with each other for my business as a consumer of health insurance. And there are more I’m sure that I can’t think of right now.
6 companies isn’t competition enough? And if 6 isn’t enough for you, is 7 with the Obama run Option going to be that much of a difference?
6 companies isn’t competition enough?
These companies are in competition for the young, healthy and employed.
No one in the south has any competition at all whatsoever.
Just one ins corp.
What exactly do you do again? What are your ties, hidden and otherwise? How old are you? From a wealthy family? Disclose which stocks you own and how much? Who are you related to?
Where do you get this stuff, besides Fauxnoise?
What in the world are you babbling about? No competition in the South? Unless Georgia is no longer considered part of the South that’s news to me as I’ve lived in this state for the last 5 years and have bought my own insurance for the duration. And when I shopped for insurance I had more competition than I knew what to do with.
You are either outright lying or haven’t got a clue about health insurance. Which is it?
From ehealthinsurance dot com using zip code 30303 (Atlanta)
Here are the options in the supposed non-competitive market:
Blue Cross / Blue Shield
Humana
UnitedHealthCare
CoventryOne
Aetna
Kaiser Permanente
Cigna
Celtic
8 options to choose from. But it’s all a monopoly.
8 options to choose from. But it’s all a monopoly.
It may not be a monopoly, but it is exempt from anti-trust laws.
Each state has its own anti-trust regulation. And since insurance cant be sold over state lines, that’s sufficient. If insurance could be sold across state lines, then you’d have a point.
Each state has its own anti-trust regulation.
And almost all the nation’s state attorneys general want to repeal the federal antitrust exemption.
Link
ince insurance cant be sold over state lines, that’s sufficient.
As well , IF they-INS corps really wanted to change these laws- don’t think for one second that they would have had CONgress change them yrs ago. But what this “can’t sell over state lines” does is even though BlueCross for example is in 2 states, it stamps you with EXISTING condition from one state to another.
Even though you don’t change companies.
Fraud. pure and simple.
And once again I ask to one and all….do you want these same incompetent imbeciles to run your health care system?
They aren’t going to run it - they’re going to pay for it. Crucial difference there.
As an end-user - does it really make any difference to you if an HIC or the Govt pays your medical bills?
The govt option doesn’t have to answer to shareholders. It doesn’t have to make a profit. It can print as much money as it needs to subsidize the plan. There is no way a private run insurance company can compete and survive.
And once the private insurers go under and 100% of the country is insured by ObamaOption….do you really think the govt won
t dictate the terms of insurance? If you think so, you’re very naive.
do you want these same incompetent imbeciles to run your health care system?
…
There is no way a private run insurance company can compete and survive.
Which is it? Is it going to be run by incompetent imbeciles or will it put insurance companies out of business?
I see the two as being mutually exclusive.
I do agree that gov. insurance - as with all things gov. - will be less efficient. What I hope it will do is provide a basic level of care that most people will opt out (or be means-tested out) of as soon as they can afford to, and force the insurance industry to clean up its act.
And once the private insurers go under and 100% of the country is insured by ObamaOption….do you really think the govt won’t dictate the terms of insurance? If you think so, you’re very naive.
No, just a product of the UK’s National Health Service, thank all things holy. The rest of the developed world is looking at the US at the moment and wondering what’s been put in the water, for a populace to rail so hard against their own self-interests and for the benefit of MagaCorp.
I get it now - its more important to keep a healthy profit going for the HICs than it is to provide affordable healthcare for the electorate!
The spice must flow, eh?
So, you consider healthcare to be a commodity just like any other, and a privilege rather than a right?
No harm no foul if that’s what you think. Though, I disagree with you, profoundly.
And I get pissed off when people such as yourself try to make out I’m batsh!t insane for not thinking the same way that you do, but at least you’re being honest.
At least I know where you’re coming from now.
Who says the gov is going to “run” our health care system?
Put down the Rush Lintballs.
…as compared to the incompetent imbeciles currently running the system?
newsobserver.com/news/local_state/story/161435.html
Maybe it was just lousy timing, but many customers of Blue Cross and Blue Shield of North Carolina are ticked off at the mail they’ve received recently from the state’s largest insurer.
First, they learned their rates will rise by an average of 11 percent next year.
Next, they opened a slick flier from the insurer urging them to send an enclosed pre-printed, postage-paid note to Sen. Kay Hagan denouncing what the company says is unfair competition that would be imposed by a government-backed insurance plan. The so-called public option is likely to be considered by Congress in the health-care overhaul debate.
the bill extends health care to tens of millions who lack coverage, impose sweeping new restrictions on the insurance industry and create a government-run option to compete with private insurers.
WHERE DOES IT SAY IT RUNS OUR HEALTH CARE?
it just means the goverment needs to do more.
Cash 4 Clunkers swindled tax payers, helped the Banksters, and got more people into debt. It also helped the “green shoots” meme.
So, from that viewpoint, it was a success.
“There can be no doubt that CARS drummed up more business for car dealers at a time when they needed help the most.”
No mention of consumers taking out a new car loan at a time when they needed it least.
Who exactly pushed this idea on us? I know the Germans started it, but who is responsible in the USA?
Hello everyone,
I’m FIRST!!!
I am thinking about getting one of those shirts from Ben….
It might cause some to think!
If you’ll email me an address with your size, I’ll get one to you at no cost, if you’ll send me a photo of you wearing it in Afghanistan. My email is in the sidebar.
Stpn2me,
I’ve enjoyed your reports and very much appreciate your service.
Are there other “creature comforts” you need or want? Books? DVDs?
Fellow HBB’ers, perhaps there is some way we could make the holidays a bit merrier for Stpn2me and his unit?
I don’t think anyone should support the Imperialist ambition of our country and so I am sorry Stpn2me may feel that he is doing his job ,but they are killing innocent people and bringing war to another country so that americans can have cheap oil. Imagine if every soldier used his moral compass and refused to participate in these wars we would be a lot better off.
Imagine if every soldier used his moral compass and refused to participate in these wars
Imagine if there was an immediate threat to the nation and every soldier refused to fight and there was a threat to YOUR way of life and family…would you like THAT?
but they are killing innocent people
Rest assured, the “people” I met last week were not “innocent”. If it were up to them, I wouldnt be talking to you right now…
americans can have cheap oil.
There’s oil here? I thought we invaded for the heroin..
Hey, I’ve got an idea. Imagine if Americans were to elect a President that promises to get our boys out of there.
and do you really think we are getting cheap oil from Afganistan?
django,
I think you need a new dictionary. You obviously don’t know what the word imperialist means.
It’s worth noting that Ron Paul got more support from active-duty servicemembers than any of the other GOP Presidential contenders. He, of course, is not a fan of Pax Americana and all our ruinously expensive globo-cop and nation-building schemes.
“‘Imagine if every soldier used his moral compass and refused to participate in these wars…’
Imagine if there was an immediate threat to the nation and every soldier refused to fight and there was a threat to YOUR way of life and family…would you like THAT?”
Stpn2me –
As a former officer, I appreciate your national service and hope that you and your men stay safe. However, I believe that what the author of the original comment is saying is that there was no immediate threat to the nation in the first place. Thus, your argument that this (these) wars are “just” based on the principles that some wars are “just” runs out of logical road fairly quickly, even with the emphasis that the author think about his/her family.
I realize that you are in a tough spot, but it’s no reason to reach for the straw man, “what-about-the-children” type argument.
That said, and this is directed to those who think that we are not in Afghanistan for energy (or at least a larger geo-political issue), what are we doing in Central Asia?
– Hunting the turrists? Please.
– Bringing democracy to the people (who have no history of it and have not fought for it themselves)? Now who’s being naive?
– WMD?
– War on Drugs?
– Fighting them there so that we don’t have to fight them here? Lordy.
– If we don’t “win” in Afghanistan, then Pakistan will fall, then India…? Sounds like a modern domino theory to me.
I’ve read The Great Game by Peter Hopkirk and I still don’t get it.
Is it to put Iran between the pincers for (some reason)?
Is it right of way for a pipeline?
Is it a threat to Russia? A threat to China?
And let’s say that it’s to put Iran between the pincers. What is the greater motive of that? Can someone explain it to me?
MrBubble
Ignore the pacifist free rider troll.
“Ignore the pacifist free rider troll.”
Or, ignore the Taliban PSYOPS troll.
But if the people from another country came to our country to save us from the Fed and our banks and our gov’t, wouldn’t we shoot them? Then they’d be blogging about us being the bad guys.
“I don’t think anyone should support the Imperialist ambition of our country”
With U.S. deployments (permanent airbases) in Afghanistan and Iraq you will find that Iran is effectively surrounded if you look on a map. This is meant to keep Israel safe. Stpn2me is really working for Tel Aviv, but his pastor won’t tell him. Heroin interdiction, oil reserves, etc., are a sideshow activity for those who don’t know any better.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2009/10/26/AR2009102603394.html?hpid=topnews&sid=ST2009102603447
Matthew Hoh, a foreign service officer and former Marine officer, has become the first US official to resign in protest over the Afghanistan war. He’s no pacifist - nor am I - but every American who seeks to understand the open-ended nature of our involvement in Afghanistan should read his principled and eloquent letter of resignation (included in this Washington Post article).
globo-cop ??
+1 Sammy…
“Imagine if every soldier used his moral compass and refused to participate in these wars”
Isn’t a situation where the milatary does not follow orders considered anarchy?
wiki:
Anarchism is a political philosophy encompassing theories and attitudes which consider the state, as compulsory government, to be unnecessary, harmful, and/or undesirable, and favors the absence of the state (anarchy).[1][2][3][4][5]
Specific anarchists may have additional criteria for what constitutes anarchism, and they often disagree with each other on what these criteria are. According to The Oxford Companion to Philosophy, “there is no single defining position that all anarchists hold, and those considered anarchists at best share a certain family resemblance.”[6]
Everyone gets tired of war, even us neocons. So why didn’t Obama have the cojones to run on withdrawal, which is what he really wanted to do? He’s really got his nutz in a wringer now.
“Isn’t a situation where the milatary does not follow orders considered anarchy?”
If the military doesn’t follow the orders of government, then the military is the government.
There are two valid points of view on what we should do in Afghanistan, just as there are/were on Iraq.
The first POV is that we should do whatever it takes to win the war. That is mine.
The second POV is that we should get out. That is not my view, but it’s consistent and I respect it.
“Choosing” to compromise between the two views is apparently what Obama is doing. It is what LBJ and Nixon did in Vietnam. It is what Dubya did in Iraq 2005-2006. It will end no better.
Let’s get our folks out of there!
I’m fine….
Just think of other soldiers over here…
There are alot of organizations who do care packages…
I am an officer..my lower enlisted troops need it more…
Step,
Do you think you could send me one of those huge spiders?
Stpn2me
Do you have a good opinion of the anysoldier(dot)com program for sending care packages?
I’m fine….
Just think of other soldiers over here…
I am an officer..my lower enlisted troops need it more
Well, isn’t that special.
Do you think you could send me one of those huge spiders?
They sell those and scorpions encased in glass, no problem. I gave one to my 9 year old son during my last tour and he carried it with him wherever he went.
As a former officer, I appreciate your national service
As a current officer, I salute your past service and paving the way for me…
With U.S. deployments (permanent airbases) in Afghanistan and Iraq you will find that Iran is effectively surrounded if you look on a map.
True, and thats bad, how? You are angry because your country has an advantage over it’s adversaries? That’s the problem I have with most anti war types, it seems they want us to lose at everything….
Enjoy killing those imaginary terrorists in cave.
In response to the comment below, they are NOT imaginary, believe me. If they were, please tell me who is cutting off fingers the afghans used to vote with…eh? Are they using imaginary knives? How you can defend THAT I will never understand.
U enjoy feeling macho with those big guns blasting
poor innocent people because u have the might of the US army and technology with u.
I can tell you have never been here and engaged the men we fight. Most of the time, it’s AK-47 against M-4 and 9mm. Get your facts straight.
U r not in Afghanistan t save us .
No sir, I am here to ensure the afghans can vote for their own govt and worship the way they please. I am here to ensure they dont get their heads cut off for not praying 7 times a day. I am here to ensure your girlfriend or wife can wear short shorts if she wants to and not have to wear a burka or walk five paces behind you.
its not about muslims, or middle eastern or even saudis..its about their insane religion.
+10000
anti war types, it seems they want us to lose at everything….
Nope, never said, that and war is when it is necessary. Not a made up one in another country. When it is here- got my gun too, when it is not and nothing is being threatened here or we are being lied to.. nope. But “anti war types” as you myopically call them do not want to lose at anything especially where our men and woman’s lives are concerned.
Basta.
So. I guess Sept 11 is long forgotten.
“The battle of man against power is the battle of memory against forgetting.”… who said that?
Keep out of harms way.
For all y’all out there. The isolationist dream died about 70 years ago.
Afganistan is hours away.
“With U.S. deployments (permanent airbases) in Afghanistan and Iraq you will find that Iran is effectively surrounded if you look on a map.”
“True, and thats bad, how? You are angry because your country has an advantage over it’s adversaries? That’s the problem I have with most anti war types, it seems they want us to lose at everything…”
Were it not for Israel’s empire policies Iran would not be such a threat to the U.S., IMHO. In addition, I never said it was good or bad; just stating the case. I’d rather see our tax money spent at home, maybe health care or infrastructure.
“I am an officer..my lower enlisted troops…”
Why not, my enlisted troops? It’s easy to see that you’re an REMF soldier. Any officer serving a combat arms MOS would never use “lower” to explain those in his charge.
Ben,
You are on!
I am sorry. I did not know u r in Afghanistan. Enjoy killing those imaginary terrorists in cave. If someone invaded the USA don’t u
think we would all become guerillas and fight them. Get a moral compass dude. U enjoy feeling macho with those big guns blasting
poor innocent people because u have the might of the US army and technology with u. We will see when we fight China in a few years as to how brave u feel. 9/11 had mostly Saudi attackers why are u in Afghanistan. our policies are making the Muslims hate us even more. The way their population is growing they will control European elections in 20 years. Then it is America vs the rest of the world. Let’s see how many resources we can steal then.
We cannot force dollars down the rest of the worlds throats forever to subsidize our standard of living. U go risk life and limb while our corporations that control congress outsource your real job to the same third world countries. Only difference is these except $$ willingly. U r not in Afghanistan t save us . U r there to intimidate and keep in check China, Russia , and Iran so they follow our orders.
u r
lol
U nd 2 lrn 2 tp. Or are you posting from a cell phone?
X-philly,
+1 ( and welcome to 2008! dude? )
Oh and tell the boys to keep rolling and get this Series over lickety split!
U r delusional.
django:
We are fighting the wrong war its not about muslims, or middle eastern or even saudis..its about their insane religion. We dont have the guts to fight a religious Jihad against them
————-
. our policies are making the Muslims hate us even more.
Oh and tell the boys to keep rolling and get this Series over lickety split!
Cliff Lee is a stud.
X-philly,
( Sush! NYY fan in da’ house? )
The ghost of Toyko Rose.
We should fight all religions. End the human mind virus.
I’m FIRST!!!
lol
What is it with Hollywood stars and dictators?
http://www.breitbart.com/article.php?id=D9BKCLQG0&show_article=1#idc-ctools
One could ask with equal justice: “What is it with U.S administrations and dictators?”
Pinochet
Franco
Saddam Hussein
The Shahs of Iran
Somoza
et alia
One could ask with equal justice
I highly doubt it’s equal….
I wonder what’s Penn’s going to say when Chavez totally shuts down the free press in his liberal paradise….
Sometimes I wonder why the Messiah came out against the action of the Supreme Court of Honduras. They ejected a wanna be dictator, just like Chavez. He tried to change their constitution, just like liberals here want to do…
Sound familiar?
I think you answered your own question about why The One was against the Honduran court’s decision.
“I highly doubt it’s equal….”
You are correct; what Chavez has done has no moral equivalency to the crimes of any one of those dictators i listed.
Last i looked the U.S. Constitution was changed 17 times after it was ratified.
Amendments; sound familiar?
Except that that particular constitution forbade the type of change that was being implemented. There is a long analysis in the library of congress, and they agree that the outster of Manuel Zelaya was constitutional. What was not constitutional was his exile.
It is even worse when you consider that Venezuela is the one pushing for Manuel Zelaya’s return, and the US is being manipulated to follow allong.
The entire O.A.S. is pushing for Zelaya’s return, many of our European “allies” are too.
I’m stunned by the level of stupidity of those who fall for media manufactured hobgoblins like Hugo Chavez.
LOL - I’m sure the Venezuelans would love to here you say that. I’ve known some who have fled the country in fear for their lives. He is very much a repressive dictator, not a “media manufactured hobgoblin”.
Hmmm… That’s odd. We had missions week in our church last month and we had a missionary from Venezuala visit for a the entire week. According to he and his wife, “the mainland media has made Chavez more popular with the public than ever…. they love him”.
So much for “fleeing the country”.
Liberals admire leftist dictators and would very much like the U.S. to be run by one.
lmao…. case in point of said stupidity??? Look no further than the post above this one.
Conservatives admire rightist dictators and would very much like the U.S. to be run by one.
===
The statement above is just as true as yours, which is to say; false.
Wasn’t Exeter also the guy who said Mao only killed 4 million, not 40 million so give the guy a break? Love one dictator, love ‘em all huh Exy?
Makin’ stuff up again huh EddieTard?
Get your headgear on because the shortbus is waiting on you.
Hey, everybody needs a Bad Guy !
“The last time you gonna see a bad guy like this again, let me tell you. Come on. …” Tony Montana
Scarface(1983)
Got Nike Scarface Air Force 1 comfortable sneakers for $10 new at a thrift store. Ugly as hell, hard to get on and take off, but light and comfortable as hell!
dennis miller had an interesting observation about penn on bill o’reilly last night.
bill asked him if he had ever met him. dennis said he hosted SNL once when he was there. he said he was one of the more graciuos and nicer host they had had.
he also said that there was some “immature” quality about him though. he thought that maybe since penn got his fame at the young age of 15 that maybe he just didn’t have the chance to mature enough due to that sudden fame.
dennis when on to say that even today…years later…he can still see that immaturity in penn’s writing.
i agree with miller’s assessment. it sounded like a really polite way of saying that sean penn just doesn’t know any better.
That sounds like a good description for a whole host of well-meaning, well-monied Hollywood movie stars who are often lured to jump on to the political band wagon of “good causes” without their ever bothering to really understand the underlying issues very well. Many wonderful photo-ops result.
Ronald Reagan comes to mind.
I actually had Ahnold in mind, but Ronald Raygun is his political predecessor.
P.S. I will never forget the glee I enjoyed back in Fall 1980 when my college physics professor nonchalantly wrote on the chalk board, “Ronald Raygun is a scumbag.”
I note that the deep pools of debt which currently threaten to financially drown the USA at the household, city, state, fiscal, retiree benefit and international trade levels all got kicked into overdrive during his two-term presidency. Have historians connected the dots on this yet? In Raygun’s defense, it was a hell of a party while it lasted…
Scumbag? meh….
More like an incompetent, detached goofball who was too stupid to realize he was getting played by Wall Street thugs…. namely Chief Thief Don Regan.
But then again, aren’t shiny suited empty skulls the gop favorite?
FWIW - one could at least make a case that Ronnie’s deficit spending was a significant contributor to the downfall of the USSR - escalating the arms race to the point where they just couldn’t withstand it any more whereas we could.
“…one could at least make a case that Ronnie’s deficit spending was a significant contributor to the downfall of the USSR…”
It seems like a small consolation that the SHTF for the USSR two decades before it did for US.
We had our chance. Things were still looking OK for us until about 1997.
Problem is that while we seem to be OK at ramping up spending when it’s needed - we can’t seem to ramp it back down when it’s *not* needed.
one could at least make a case that Ronnie’s deficit spending was a significant contributor to the downfall of the USSR
Yep and those receiving TARP will say that the money stolen from the tax payer saved our economy.
600 dollar hammers were too easy to spot as waste and fraud so they had to go for lazers. How much should a lazer system cost? Don’t know sounds expensive.
Read Fred Coleman’s book “The Decline and Fall of the Soviet Empire”. He does a good job of debunking that silly myth that Reagan bankrupted the Soviets. Reagan wasted money that didn’t need to be wasted, just like TARP was a waste of money.
michael,
Sorry I missed that, I try to make time when Dennis is on. Whether he’s right or wrong, the guy just busts me up.
Still, “I” would -never- have grown up if given the choice? If I had my way, “Classic Rock” ( wouldn’t be referred to as such because it would STILL be just “Rock”, my band would top the charts )
Pffftt.
“i agree with miller’s assessment. it sounded like a really polite way of saying that sean penn just doesn’t know any better.”
How can anyone who watches Bill O’Reilly profess to know what’s right? That’s an automatic disqualification, IMO.
*yawn*
michael,
Right, and anyone that happens to catch the show on their way through the living room or channel surfing is a brainwashed neocon.
Why is it I’ve never (once) seen a disparaging comment here over KO?
Olberman is a tool. He sounded good when Bush was in, but now it’s obvious that he is flagrantly biased in favor of the Democraps.
Cuz 94% of the regulars are kool aid drinking O’bots?
“but now it’s obvious that he is flagrantly biased in favor of the Democraps.”
but now? You mean prior to now he was objective?
Obviously as objective as Limbaugh, but 10x more intelligent, incisive, and articulate.
“What is it with Hollywood stars and dictators?”
Method acting, maybe?; whereby the actor totally assumes the role of the character he/she portrays?
It’s fashionable in movies for the U.S. government to be the bad guys and the hero always saves the day by doing in the bad guys, hence those actors who allow themselves to be totally consumed by their roles ending up hating the U.S.
Method acting also suggests the reason why the hero REALLY DOES fall in love with the leading lady while doing a movie and dumps his family for her only to do it all over again when he makes another movie and has another leading lady.
At least that’s my guess.
I think they truly despise capitalism (almost understandable these days), but realize they are profiting from the system. The dictator worship is like a cleansing of the soul or saying twelve-hundred Hail Marys’ and one act of contrition.
Penn, like so many in La,La land are completely disconnected with the real world. What they see and the way they believe things “should” be don’t jive with reality. Penn is a true/honest nut case, not everyone out there in Hollywood Land is though.
The best Sean Penn movies are the ones where he dies early in the film.
I only recall one Sean Penn movie that could be deemed as good: Fast Times at Ridgemont High
To be clear, I never said any of them were good.
BAD Cassandra! ( lol )
I was SO disappointed by the ‘latest’ installment of Amelia Earhart. So disappointed. My daughters are now in their 20’s but I made ’sure’ they knew who she was growing up.
Hillary certainly ‘looked’ the part, but there was no ‘discovery’? Nothing that really hadn’t been shared before.
I had the oddest experience yesterday trying to explain the blog to someone.
I was talking to a nurse’s assistant about my sleep patterns being off and I started talking about reading this blog in the middle of the night.
“Were you in the markets before staying home w/kids?”
“No.”
“Then why would you care?”
“I find it fascinating and while the information is being offered for free want to learn as much as I can about the system.”
“Why? Are you planning to testify before some Senate subcommittee?”
“Well everyone on there is basically anonymous but that probably allows for more info. The site’s host reported governments were visiting the blog. There are a lot of things I knew were coming way before they happened from what was reported there.”
I got one of those looks that said there must be screw loose somewhere. Hysterical laughter ensued upon exiting my room. Couldn’t hear the details of the conversation.
***********************************
Gheesh! You’d think last October would’ve gotten everyone’s attention. But obviously some just march blindly on.
CarrieAnn:
I had the same experience on a plane shortly after September, 2001. I was reading “The Rise and Fall of the Third Reich” in an effort to learn what circumstances led a modern and educated country to choose tyranny in the face of their hardships. A young woman sat next to me and we struck up a conversation when she asked if was enrolled in a college course.
Which I was not. I was reading it because the initial phases of the PATRIOT act were on the table at the time, and a good portion of the country backed the stripping of freedoms in the name of safety. I felt the parrallels between some of the early policies of the Third Reich and the US government at the time were closely related.
The woman (who as it turned out was a college student) just shrugged her shoulders. Couldn’t figure out why I’d care.
That was my “ah-ha” moment for both the aftermath of the events of September 11, 2001; and I carried that knowledge into my opinion on the housing bubble.
…and I carried that knowledge into my opinion on the housing bubble.
Hey, if we’re going to have a “Why I read the HBB” thread, here’s my entry:
I bought a house without selling the other in ‘99. I lost the first house in ‘02 and sold the other in late ‘04. I didn’t make any money, but I was able to pay off most debt. When I looked back on my home “ownership” history (20 years at that point), it was hard to conclude that I’d broken even on shelter, let alone profited.
Then I moved to Vegas and when I saw what $350k would get you, I realized I wasn’t buying another mortgage any time soon.
Gigantic sky-scrapers were going up on the Strip and I met people who had two and three houses and suddenly got the feeling that something was wrong.
I had heard the phrase “housing bubble” somewhere, and I Googled it and found “Overvalued.blogspot.com” and “BubbleMarketInventoryTracking.blogspot.com” and the HBB.
I read them all with absolute fascination starting in early ‘05 as the frenzy built.
I’ve stuck around mostly for the banter, insight, news and community.
Overvalued was fun before it was taken over by some realtor.
“I’ve stuck around mostly for the banter, insight, news and community.”
I read the HBB because Bill in Los Angeles put me onto it, and provided a link to it on a board that we both used to frequent. That board is defunct, but the ideas set forth therein aren’t. I stayed on because it is RIGHT. On. Most of the time. Or, so it seems to me.
I think I might be getting the flu. Crap.
I believe soon, everything that is not forbidden will be mandatory and everything that is not mandatory will be forbidden.
The sheer number of laws and restrictions that are added every year will ultimately cause this.
“I believe soon, everything that is not forbidden will be mandatory and everything that is not mandatory will be forbidden. ”
This sounds suspiciously like an excerpt from Atlas Shrugged, Ayn Rand, 1957. Who is John Galt?
I rememeber a similar line in “The Once and Future King” when Wart was an ant.
“I felt the parrallels between some of the early policies of the Third Reich and the US government at the time were closely related.”
We’re very fortunate that now we’ve gotten rid of Chimpy McBushitler and put Democrats in control of Congress, so the Patriot Act has been repealed.
I didn’t realize that. I’ll give the benefit of the doubt that you’re being sarcastic, but the regulars here on the board are well aware that my political affilation is neither Democrat nor Republican. I find them both revolting, with little difference between the two parties or presidencies. I suspect in 100 years students of history will have trouble believing Bush and Obama were from two philosophically different political parties.
I dig this and other conspiracy minded blogs. I disagree with most of what is written here but I enjoy reading different points of view.
That being said, I also realize most of the population is clueless. And I don’t just mean about the details of TARP and whether or not AIG disproportionally benefited. That’s so far down in the weeds, you might as well be debating the theory of relativity for most people.
I’m talking clueless in the general sense like 50% of people can’t name both their senators. Or don’t know the difference between the deficit and the debt. Or think that if they get a tax refund at the end of the year it means they paid no taxes. It is what it is. And it’s why someone like Obama can come up with a neat slogan like Hope and Change and win 52% of the vote. Americans are morons. What can you do? It is what it is.
‘conspiracy minded blogs…most of the population is clueless…Americans are morons’
Jeebus. We used to joke that many trolls were 12 years old and just having fun getting a rise out of adults on the internet. But I’m starting to believe you have to be at least 14.
Please stop Ben. I’m not feeling well and all this laughing is going to send me into convulsions.
Sorry. I didn’t mean to offend by calling you a conspiracy theorist.
But come on , PPTs, PBTs and doctored GDP reports….what else can you call it?
the truth?
But come on , PPTs, PBTs and doctored GDP reports….what else can you call it?
So that government that you don’t trust to run C4C or health care is the same government that tells us the truth? Bwahahahaha.
“But come on , PPTs, PBTs and doctored GDP reports….what else can you call it?”
Unless a senior official comes out and says the GDP is only positive because we, the government, are spending money we don’t have, then they’re falling short of telling the full truth.
The PPT discussion has been taken up on this blog from time to time, but it did not originate here.
Clearing up whether the PPT is a conspiracy theory involving deliberate and redistributive asset price manipulation by the Fed is one of the primary reasons the Fed should be audited. Since they are striving to increase transparency, it would be in the institution’s self-interest to clear up any misconceptions whether they are deliberately undertaking market interventions to manipulate asset prices.
I note that other so-called “conspiracies” to hide information from the Street have succeeded wildly in recent years — the names Bernie Madoff and Ken Lay come to mind as two primary examples. The Street is, after all, populated by a herd of bovines, not known for their depth of critical perception.
Given that the Fed operates under a veil of extreme secrecy in order to avoid tipping the market’s hand on the future direction of monetary policy, I don’t personally see any reason to assume they would have much trouble hiding the details of an asset price manipulation program, if they saw fit to do so.
Plunge Protection Team
“Plunge Protection Team” was originally the headline for an article in The Washington Post on February 23, 1997,[2] and has since become a colloquial term used by some mainstream publications to refer to the Working Group.[3][4] Initially, the term was used to express the opinion that the Working Group was being used to prop up the markets during downturns.[5][6] Financial writers for British newspapers The Observer and The Daily Telegraph, along with U.S. Congressman Ron Paul and writers Kevin Phillips (who claims “no personal firsthand knowledge” and is “not interested in becoming a conspiracy investigator”) [7] and John Crudele,[8] have charged the Working Group with going beyond their legal mandate. Claims about the Working Group, which are labeled conspiracy theories by some writers, generally include that it is an orchestrated mechanism that attempts to manipulate U.S. stock markets in the event of a market crash by using government funds to buy stocks, or other instruments such as stock index futures—acts which are forbidden by law. In August 2005, Sprott Asset Management released a report that argued that there is little doubt that the PPT intervened to protect the stock market.[9] However, these articles usually refer to the Working Group using moral suasion to attempt to convince banks to buy stock index futures. [10]
Former Federal Reserve Board member Robert Heller, in the Wall Street Journal, opined that “Instead of flooding the entire economy with liquidity, and thereby increasing the danger of inflation, the Fed could support the stock market directly by buying market averages in the futures market, thereby stabilizing the market as a whole.” His statement has been used to claim that the Fed actually did act in that way. Mainstream analysts call those claims a conspiracy theory, explaining that such claims are simplistic and unworkable.[11][12]
Despite the fact that these theories about direct market intervention have circulated for over a decade in the tabloid press and on the internet, none of the conspiracy theorists has been able to produce even a single piece of evidence or first-hand testimony that would document such trading. Given the massive electronic and human audit trail generated by trading on the futures and stock markets, experts say that, if the so-called PPP interventionist theories were true, it would be impossible to conceal documentary evidence of such transactions.
…
“So that government that you don’t trust to run C4C or health care is the same government that tells us the truth? Bwahahahaha.”
ZOMG!!!!1!11 u got WTFPWNED!!!!!11111 nOOOBZZ!!!!!1111
ok…that was my 12 year old coming out.
“…experts say that, if the so-called PPP interventionist theories were true, it would be impossible to conceal documentary evidence of such transactions.”
I take back my suggestion. Like other posters on this blog, I have come to realize that if ‘experts’ say that something is true, then it must always be so.
Two people can keep a secret only if one of them is dead.
“Two people can keep a secret only if one of them is dead.”
So you are saying that only Bernard Madoff knew about his Ponzi scheme for all the years of its operation, and only Ken Lay knew about accounting irregularities at Enron just before it blew up?
Nice try, but your statement doesn’t pass the red face test.
I think he’s just misquoting Franklin:
“Three can keep a secret, if two of them are dead.”
I am weak with laughter.
“Americans are morons.”
-morons with a 3.5% GDP. We rule!
Ok Eddie, I’m going to give you the benefit of a doubt, and address this comment as if it is sincere, as if you are not a troll.
You address two issues, and I’ll take the easy one first. “Americans are morons”. That one has some merit, on two different levels. First, by definition, half of all Americans have IQs less than 100. But many of the other “morons” aren’t really stupid, they are deluded. They believe what they want to believe. They believe what they are told. They refuse to open their eyes and see the truth that lies before them, lest they find it disagreeable. I, and many here, do not like what we see, but that doesn’t mean it isn’t the truth.
Many Americans (ok, probably most) are poorly educated. They don’t study history, and can see no parallels with the past. Witness the Great Depression, or as mentioned today in another post, the Third Reich. Likewise, most Americans don’t have the math skills to make change, let alone understand a mortgage or an amortization schedule.
But your first point seems to lump this board into that group. I read and post here simply because these are some of the smartest, best informed people I have ever had the pleasure to associate with. I don’t always agree with their opinions, but generally I find those opinions to be well supported, and certainly not delusional.
Which brings me to my point. Most of what has been predicted by this board has come to be. That is a fact, and it is well documented in the archives. If you have trouble seeing that, is it possible it is you that suffer from the delusions?
Awesome post.
Personally I don’t think Eddie is a “troll” in the classic sense - someone who deliberately baits for the fun of it. I just think he’s very argumentative - in an insecure fashion, and also a few cards short of a deck; not the best combo.
FWIW - we all have a little of both in all of us (argumentativeness/insecurity, and some cards missing); me in particular. In some it’s just more prevalent.
+1
Thirded.
I keep coming back here for the banter and the info.
You’re hardly ever wrong and collectively the smartest people I know.
“TrueBeliever’s™”:
“They believe what they want to believe. They believe what they are told. They refuse to open their eyes and see the truth that lies before them, lest they find it disagreeable. I, and many here, do not like what we see, but that doesn’t mean it isn’t the truth.”;-)
TrueDeceiver’s ™”:
People with “tendencies” like… Eddie (Haskel)
My IQ of 10,000 (ten thousand) should be a confirmation for Eddie that smart people post here
IQ of 10,000? That’s only 660 standard deviations from the mean (if I did my math right). SUGuy you should change your name to “Black Swan”.
“..My IQ of 10,000 (ten thousand)”
That’s repetitive…you’re a “trickster”…I rename you: “SUGuy in a “Wiley E. Coyote” skin” …who thinks he can convince people that drinking coffee is bad for their health…and that will most likely be the cause of great pain to them and eventually their death!
(Hwy notes: if at some point in time, SUGuy is found out to be a “true repubican..then I’ll give him his honor: a “TrueDeceiver’s ™” merit badge.)
I remember days when hoz and others were giving us some pretty good analyses on what was going on w/ data sources so we could track the info ourselves.
I remember hearing of major lay-offs coming before they were the daily norm and weeks before anyone else knew.
I remember this really vague awareness of the different gov and Wall St.players and their history gelling so I could better separate the wheat from the chaffe w/individual statements and make my own “action speaks louder than words” analysis.
I read so many different sources of information and compared different economic theories until I finally formed my own favorite sources even though I might reject any portion of their statements as misguided based on other information.
If anyone cares about their personal wealth at all….if anyone felt a sense of panic about what happened last year…..wouldn’t you want to try to figure out what had happened? Or are people really just sinking back into the same malaise that got us to last Oct in the first place?
It’s the automatic return to the malaise state that I find so shocking.
“And I don’t just mean about the details of TARP and whether or not AIG disproportionally benefited.”
Let me fix that for you… And I don’t just mean about the details of TARP and whether or not GS disproportionally benefited.
There, that’s better.
Actually if you make like $11,500 and have kids and qualify for EITC, you get a refund and paid no taxes…
Here’s my problem with your argument Eddie and this is not meant to be a personal attack because I don’t like them and believe people have the right to disagree with me without me reducing the argument to name-calling or other bad behavior. But for years I have witnessed posters come onto this blog and demean the general consensus. Posters, some “trolls” and some who just adamantly disagree with us, have at various times told the collective us we were stupid, ignorant, criminal, treasonous, corrupt, wishers of bad deeds on good people, cruel, cynical, right-wing, left-wing, communist, socialist, anti-capitalist, evil capitalists, pathetic, evil, hateful, hurtful, stubborn, and just all out wrong.
We were wrong to insist housing prices rising that far and that fast was a bad thing. We were wrong to predict that the massive debt the average American was carrying was unsustainable and eventually crippling. We were wrong to maintain the idea that a correction was coming from all this bad debt and that it was going to be harsh. We were wrong to foresee that government intervention would put aid, aka stimulus, in the wrong hands and in the wrong places. We were wrong to say that housing was going to fall XYZ% in ABC city. We were wrong to look at the history of past bubbles and other economic happenings to make predictions about what would happen in this new paradigm.
Except for one thing – we weren’t wrong. Unlike any other source of information I can think of, the collective wisdom of this blog has been right over and over and over again. Not certain individuals catching a lucky break and making a good prediction, but the overall theme – there is a housing bubble and it’s going to have bad consequences – being proven years after it was first initiated.
There are extreme right wing and extreme left wing voices on this blog. There are a huge number of moderates who are desperate for the US to move away from partisan politics and find real solutions to save the middle class and indeed America. There are many of us who are mainly moderate but go left-wing or right-wing over a particular issue or “hot button” debate. Some of us are socialist. Some of us are communist. Some of us are born again. Some of us are atheist. Some of us are Jewish. Some of us are Moslem. Some of us are Scientologists. Some are black. Some are white. Some are Hispanic. Some are Asian. Some are Native American. Some are complete mutts. Some are men. And a slightly higher percentage (as far as Ben can tell) are women. Some own businesses. Some work for the government. Some are unemployed and hurting. Some are retired and loving it. Most of us care deeply about America and although we have very different ideas on how to fix her, we really do want to do so. (Heck, some of us are Canadian and even some of them care about America!) But it is exactly this blending of different viewpoints, experiences, education levels, geographical locations and socio-economic statuses that make this blog so powerful. Because we debate ideas. We insist upon proof and numbers. We research 24-hours a day from the main stream media to obscure journals and local publications. This all merges to into a powerful machine that eventually presents strong, and correct, themes.
Eddie, you’ve come on here pretty strong and very recently to tell us we are all wrong. The economic picture is looking up. The green shoots are real and viable and the worst is over. And you may be absolutely right. But the consensus here is that you are not. The “green shoots” are as real as a mirage and created by government invention that cannot hope to last. There is more pain ahead, and worse than what we have seen so far. There is little chance we will go back to the excesses of the early century for many generations. And housing prices will continue to fall until they make sense for the underlying economy. Same as housing prices going through the roof in ’04 and ’05 after already being way too high, today’s recovery seems unsustainable and without real values propping it up.
I don’t know if you are clueless or not, but if you did not see the problem with housing back in 2004 or so, I would have to argue that you may be as clueless as the average American. The problem was obvious to a few Americans which is why so many of us found this blog looking for data to support our crazy theory that something was very, very wrong in housing. Coming here in the early days was like being embraced by a family you didn’t know you had after being kicked out of your original family’s house for not joining their cult.
I’m not going to tell you you are wrong and we are right. I really don’t know. I just know the collective wisdom of this blog has yet to fail me and the people I have learned to trust for their intelligence, insight and ability to plow through data are telling me this is not close to over yet and I need to be very careful about how I will proceed. As they have earned my trust, admiration and gratitude I will continue to trust them over an unproven newbie. Time will tell who is right and years of watching people come on and demean our opinions only to watch those voices slunk away in the night has made me very comfortable with a wait and see attitude. So thank you for your input, but I will continue to trust the ones with the track record of being right.
Oh, and the other reason I think this crisis is far from over? The same reason I came to the blog in the first place – my gut is telling me something is very, very wrong.
Wow, excellent post.
My gut tells me something is very, very wrong, too.
Great summary, SDREBear.
“Oh, and the other reason I think this crisis is far from over? The same reason I came to the blog in the first place – my gut is telling me something is very, very wrong.”
My gut tells me that the size of the restructuring to date has been nowhere near the scale of the credit-binge-induced structural-distortion that we had in the halcyon days.
Which to me says “More de-leveraging dead-ahead!”
Excellently presented. I too have enjoyed the wisdom and differing opinions on this forum, the ones that don’t strongly/continually tell the other ones they are wrong/stupid etc.
“…We were wrong to insist housing prices rising that far and that fast was a bad thing.”
Hey now, I never posted that it was “wrong” …just not “right” and by “right” …I don’t mean Karl Rove & his brethren the “evangelicals” nor by a “conservative” extension due to a “blue” enhancement that is promoted by Rash Limpbaughs.
(Hwy learned some things by watching Jr. High school political “vote-for-me campaigns)
SD,
That was THE definitive HBB post—-one of the most moving things I have read in years. Thank you so much for writing it.
a
Your turn of phrase puts me in a new and respectful place. Great summation.
I’ll bet it was that hysterically nervous, uneasy type of laughter from people who subliminally realize that the target of said laughter is a lot smarter and thoughtful than they are. People who actually analyze and think critically are threatening to people who get all their “news” from Access Hollywood and tabloids.
Carrie Ann,
Very well said. While ‘my’ experience was quite different, the end result.., really wasn’t?
Why my dear, we’ve had a perfect “hat trick” here in my small Oregon town of 10,000! Our ( formerly ) WaMu is now a Chase Bank, West Coast Bank has been issued their Cease & Desist Order ( effective Monday ) and… our local failed bank now has a fresh banner outside.
Roight! Other than collapsing the stock market, -decimating- “trust” ( there’s a laugh ) in the local bus. community and adding TEN YEARS to my stay in the workforce ( along w/ an underwater condo I was more or less forced… to buy! ) NOPE, it really hasn’t affected ‘me’ at all?
Gheesh! You’d think last October would’ve gotten everyone’s attention. But obviously some just march blindly on.
You just illustrated a fundemental (and absolutly terrifying) aspect of human nature. Many people really just dont want to know about anything beyond their own little carefully circumscribed existence. They lack a basic curiousity about the world around them. They find absolutist statements, black vs white, us vs them more comfortable and familiar than the ambiguity and shades of gray that actually exist.
They want truthiness vs empirical reality. It’s easier for them to deal with than the messy process of digging below the surface apearances.
I find that attitude bizzare and repellant but all too common.
That was a cool thread. I wrote a long response of all the things I’ve taken from the blog. But that was about 9 hours ago and I’m sure it’s been eaten. I enjoyed SDBear’s response immensely. The synopsis of mine is the great thing about the blog is w/all this smorgasbord of wisdom and understanding bouncing around here you can take what you want and leave the rest. My knowledge and abilities have expanded greatly since first arriving. The compare and contrast is its greatest allure. For if we didn’t have that it would just be another form of dictated indoctrination. Instead we all put our little personalized spin on what we read and take from it what works for our individual situations. That’s pretty powerful.
I find that attitude bizzare and repellant but all too common.
I do too.
Got slammed by hs “friends” for posting something that a Link( political-with no comment from me) and then ” we don’t want politics around here, this XX is for FUN and Games, lets keep it light hearted” and that was the nicest comment. The rest were really harsh.
Nope, lots of folks do not want to hear or see anything but “fun” things. LIV. Low Information Voters-whether they don’t have the time or the inclination.
The radical Left turns to guns and violence:
Bullets fired at home of Lou Dobbs
Someone has fired a gun at the home of Lou Dobbs, with his wife just a few feet away from the incident. The gunfire followed a series of threatening phone calls.
Lou Dobbs is being targeted by the pro-illegal alien groups and pundits who feel that Dobbs is stopping Amnesty from passing.
The Southern Poverty Law Center, the Anti Defamation League, the National Council of La Raza, Media Matters, and Geraldo Rivera of Fox News are using false information to foment hatred towards Lou Dobbs or any American who speaks out against Amnesty or illegal immigration.
They have pushed for Lou Dobbs to be fired; and since CNN has refused to do it, some people are now turning to violence to try and achieve their goals.
The lies and hate coming from these radical pro-illegal alien groups is now manifesting in the form of gunfire fired into the occupied home of an innocent multi-racial family.
Lou Dobbs is standing up for the people of the United States and sharing information with the public that the elites want censored.
This is what Dobbs said about the incident:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Qjbgk1TKLWY
Thanks for posting. Everybody should hear what Lou Dobbs has to say on this video. Very thought-provoking.
This is coming hard on the heels of the disgusting gang-rape in Richmond, CA and the FBI take-down of the imam in Dearborn. The two incidents, and others, are illustrative of why we need a moratorium on all immigration, now. And then clean up the current mess. This is what happens when naive people think we should invite the world. Other cultures don’t necessarily believe in free speech and rather than taking up the culture of their host country, seek to foster their own culture here.
Sure, we can have “free speech” laws. But we now have cultures that have taken root that don’t believe in it and enforce fear, silence and misogyny with violence.
Palmetto,
While I absolutely agree we need an immediate moratorium on all immigration, I don’t think the incidents you mentioned support that point. Was the gang-rape in Richmond perpetrated by immigrants? They looked to me like typical LA gang-bangers. From what I saw on CNN this morning - correct me if I’m wrong - the imam who was taken down in Detroit was an African-American convert to Islam (converted in prison) and follower of the former Black Panther turned-Muslim extremist H. Rapp Brown.
we need a moratorium on all immigration, now.
So you’re saying that legal immigrants are more inclined to crime than illegal immigrants?
“Was the gang-rape in Richmond perpetrated by immigrants? They looked to me like typical LA gang-bangers.”
The gang-rape would appear to have been perpetrated by young men of Hispanic descent. Most likely the children of those hard-working immigrants with real family values we hear so much about, maybe the children’s children. Richmond is actually in the SF Bay area, not LA. But I don’t think there’s really a typical gang-banger in CA, since the gangs seem to span a number of cultures and races.
However, the vicious crime they committed has been going on for years in the border towns of Mexico. The actress Salma Hayek has been trying to tell anyone who will listen of the hundreds of disappeared women of those towns, and of the disgusting violence committed against them. You can google it. And now it has come to the US, exposing the culture of misogyny.
Regarding the imam, I’m more referring to the culture that has taken root in Dearborn, prompting some wags to call it “Dearbornistan”.
And for the whiners who want to say “American men have gang-banged (like that makes it OK), that may be true (Jodie Foster movie, college frats, etc.) but that doesn’t mean we need to add more of it from other countries and cultures.
My main objection is the misogyny and squelching of free speech through violence being imported into the US at a mad rate. And none dare speak out against it. Where are the feminists raising their voices now?
No, I think you’re saying I’m saying it.
Moratorium now.
You realize what a “moratorium” is - right? It’s making immigration illegal. Well, being that the vast majority of our current immigrants are already entering the country illegally - what makes you think that making all immigration illegal will change their behavior in the least?
In other words - moratorium isn’t what’s needed. What’s needed is enforcement of existing laws.
Which definition are you using, there’s a gajillion of them on the web:
http://www.google.com/search?hl=en&defl=en&q=define:moratorium&ei=UcTpStf3GMXElAeu15mABQ&sa=X&oi=glossary_definition&ct=title&ved=0CAoQkAE
I’m saying all immigration should be temporarily suspended until the mess gets straightened out.
Moratorium now.
gang-rape in Richmond, CA ??
One of the most disturbing things I have seen in quite some time…Young people standing around and watching this happen as if it was entertainment….
“…entertainment”
Key word & concept in… “This American Life”
Entertainment + Agenda + Deception = Rupert Murdoch = Fox News = “money in his bank account”
Rupert Murdoch: Foreign “Fear Monger” Billionaire $$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$
The Wall Street Journal is one of his “new” tools!
“gang-rape in Richmond, CA ??”
Three miles from where we used to live (I checked it on Google maps…)
Wall Street Journal closes Boston bureau
Thu Oct 29, 2009 12:14pm EDT
Lighting strikes in MA!
Richmond is an absolute pit. I’ve been through it many times. I remember an old co-worker sharing a story of being low on fuel at nearly 2 am one morning. A very thin, unimposing young white guy, he stopped at a Richmond quickie mart for some fuel. He went inside, and it seemed as if nobody was working. He then heard some voices in the backroom, and walked around the corner to let them know he wanted some fuel. He encountered two burly African-American gentlemen smoking crack. He nervously gave them $10 for fuel, not even sure they were legitimate employees. He walked back to his truck, and just as he was about to remove the gas cap, a carload of what could only be described as gangbangers drove by, looked over and saw him, and flipped a quick U-turn to pull into the station. At this point, he was so nervous he abandoned getting gas, jumped in his truck, and tore out of there on empty with the pedal to the floor. He said was shaking as he prayed he could get to the next town for some fuel, certain he would run out. He made it, and said he would never go through that area again.
“About 200 students, teachers and community leaders rallied outside the campus after school Wednesday to condemn the rape and to say they wanted people to know the crime was not representative of their campus, the Chronicle says.
“I am devastated,” said senior Norma Bautista, the Chronicle reports. “I’m here because I want everybody in Arizona, in New York, everywhere they are, (to know) that we are not criminals. We are the future leaders. I see people call us animals. Why don’t you look at those of us who are trying to make a change?”
LMAO! Future leaders! Yep, I’m afraid that’s all too true.
I’m pretty certain the twenty or so people who stood around and watched the rape without lifting a finger to stop it are all too representative of that particular high school and community. If that’s how they act when the “thin blue line” is still somewhat in place, imagine what they’ll do during any kind of societal breakdown, i.e. civil unrest.
I worked in Richmond a few years back. It’s the only place I’ve ever been to where the KFC had 2 inch Bullet proof glass.
I decided not to eat out in Richmond at lunch time.
I don’t believe it. For years I have been told Democrats are the party of tolerance and inclusion and Republicans were the gun toting crazies who don’t believe in free speech. This fake article must have been written by one of those non-news newspeople at Faux News. Now if it came from that impartial, objective network MSNBC or the even more objective Newsweek, maybe I would believe you.
Good morning Exeter!
Eddie has three post so far and has said “I” eleven times…That tell you something about the person ?
Brings to mind the seagulls’ cry in the movie “Finding Nemo”:
‘Mine Mine Mine Mine Mine Mine…’
So the Professor is a “Finding Nemo” fan … Ben, I believe we’ve unmasked one of our 12-year-olds!
That’s me — a 12-year-old conspiracy theorist…
yep…PB still believes in santa claus too…hardy har har.
Sammy,
Trust me, if you have a grandchild, you will have seen Finding Nemo so many times you can re-hash the lines even withOUT the DVD playing!
Try me!
You can DO it sharkbait!
I’ve got young children of my own so yes, I’ve seen it. Can’t say I recall too many of the lines, though.
Well this 12+ can recall that line from Nemo. I’ve watched the movie a few times and still enjoy the dialogue.
You can DO it sharkbait!
You all have to admit that the initiation ceremony on the slopes of Mt Wannahockaloogie is absolutly hillarious.
“Sharkbait OOO HA HA!!!”
Yeah having two young ones - I know it well. It is indeed funny.
” Fish are Friends, NOT Food ” followed by slavering sounds. Later, explosions from the mines. My husband & I were laughing about that scene a couple of nights back, and reciting various lines from it to each other. We’re 57 yo.
Try as we might, constructing sentences in the first person ‘can’ be trying without it’s inclusion. DinOR has tried!
There’s always the imperial “we”, as in “we are not amused”.
DennisN,
LOL! No.., no, no ‘we’ are not!
( I keep meaning to CALL you! Got the water district straightened out yet? ) Next… week look any better for you?
I said “I” 13 times in my response above to Eddie. I always thought I most resembled the fish with the bad memory in ‘Nemo’ (sorry, don’t remember her name) but will have to rewatch it and see if I am really a seagull.
Oh crap, now I’m up to 19 I’s in 2 posts!
Fish is Dory. the seagulss said “Mine”.
The illegal immigration lobby has incredible resources at its disposal. The corporate cartels, which own the Republican Party, want cheap labor. The legal industry is getting rich off the citizenship process and all the legal troubles “undocumented workers” tend to get into. The Catholic church, after years of decline, welcomes all those Latino catholics filling the pews (and of course, the church isn’t paying for their social costs). The prospect of “Democrat on Arrival” illegal aliens being yet another mass voting bloc to pander to in exchange for votes has Pelosi & Co. salivating.
Arrayed against all this, you have very few good, effective organizations - and I don’t include demagogues or fraud-riddled immigrant bashers like the Minutemen. NumbersUSA is probably the most effective immigration reform group out there. If every American who pisses and moans ineffectually about uncontrolled immigration actually stepped up and started supporting the few “good guys” who are actively opposing it, we might start to see meaningful reform.
I will look into this “NumbersUSA” Sammy…Thanks for the suggestion…
FAIR is good, too, but they’ve been characterized as a hate group by the $PLC (Southern Poverty Law Center, a shakedown con organization that could find a “hate” group hiding under a frog’s hair).
The immigration lobby’s ultimate dirty trick for shutting down legitimate debate on immigration is to play the “racist” card - having well-funded pressure groups like the SPLC accuse anti-immigration groups like FAIR or VDARE of “racism” seems like more an attempt to stifle free speech or public debate on issues the Powers that Be would rather consign to the memory hole.
“The illegal immigration lobby has incredible resources at its disposal.”
Including taxpayer money, which is liberally dispensed to racist, ethnic cleansing focused groups like La Raza, a Klan-like organization whose motto is “For the race, everything, for everyone else, nothing.” And they’re proud of it.
Wait until Mexico stops exporting oil in a couple of years and looses their main source of income. Things will get really interesting down there.
“their main source of income.”
Drugs is their main source of income, although not officially. Not to mention the remittances sent back by citizens residing here. I could be wrong on this, but I think I recently read that Mexico has more consulates in the US than any other country, to protect their “interests” here.
A fired station closed here recently (and not in the boonies) due to a state government shortfall, aggravated by the public tax burden of incarcerating illegal alien felons.
The Mexican Consulate downtown still is open, waving its flag.
Fire station, that is.
Didn’t burn.
Need more Diest Shasta Cola with Splenda.
“Diest?” Does Slenda kill you faster than Equal?
(And may I reommend the joys of Stevia hopefully coming soon to a diet cola near you?)
The Catholic church, after years of decline, welcomes all those Latino catholics filling the pews
Weren’t they already filling the pews back where they came from? Sounds like a zero sum game for the RCC.
Yeah, sounds more like a retention strategy than an expansion.
In other news - apparently Henry VIII was a Bad Man and the Pope wants all his Anglicans back:
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/10/21/world/europe/21pope.htm
He was a bad man, but a pretty good king.
“but a pretty good king”
Uhh, yeah, about that.
Were he around today we would probably be dropping some democracy on his a$$. He was a classic authoritarian tyrant. It’s pretty well acknowledged that he split from the church for entirely personal and political reasons. He wanted the tithes and wanted to get into Anne Boleyns bloomers.
He sacked the english monistaries to get his hands on their land and their acumulated wealth. This after nearly bankrupting the royal treasury on lavish gifts, parties and extensive self agrandizing construction projects.
Oh and lets not forget the tens of thousands of people he had sumarrily executed.
Sadam Hussain with a codpiece.
Sadam Hussain with a codpiece.
Well let’s put it this way, he was no wimp. But the split with the Church was bogus and self-serving.
“The corporate cartels, which own the Republican Party, want cheap labor.”
Naaah!!! That can be true!!! You just hate UhMerrrrca!
Here’s another bunch we could do without.
“From: Tim Stephanini (e-mail him)
Re: Rob Sanchez’s Blog: Rep. Giffords’ Bill To Triple H-1B Visa Cap
Rep. Gabrielle Giffords’ bill to triple the H-1B allowance to 180,000 is a kick in the groin to unemployed American technology workers.
In the past decade, the U.S. has imported millions of H-1B tech workers to chase many fewer jobs. The consequence is massive unemployment for American engineers.
Non-immigrant visa applicants are allowed to come to the U.S. without a job, then transfer and work for different companies on a contract basis. Eventually, they apply for a green card; then they never leave thereby competing unfairly with Americans for the rest of their professional lives.
Indian non-immigrant visa holders are consistently associated with high fraud rates that often result in corporate failure. This pattern dates back for years.
In truth, these are not the best and brightest workers. In many cases involving Indian H-1B holders, they have fake degrees and some have only taken a two-week computer class.
Government officials in the Indian town of Bihar recently found 100,000 fake Indian degree certificates. Worse, even legitimate diplomas are useless since the typical Indian degree is from a three-year institution, not four years as required by H-1B standards.
The list of failed companies and projects associated with these frauds is huge.
Quark Inc. was almost destroyed by con man Alluka Kamar until the Board of Directors canned him.
The Indian outsourcing firm Satyam Computer Services inflated its earnings and assets for years before being caught. The result was a collapse on the Indian stock market similar to Enron’s. [Satyam Chief Admits Huge Fraud, by Heather Timmons, New York Times, January 9, 2009]
In April 2006, Computer Associates CEO Sanjay Kumar was sent to prison for 12 years after he pled guilty to charges including conspiracy, securities fraud and obstruction of justice back. He has been sentenced to 12 years and fined $8 million.
Windows Vista, produced by Microsoft’s 30,000 Indian workers and an utter flop for the company.
Citigroup CEO Vikram Pandit led the company while it lost nearly $19 billion in 2008 and fired 73,000 employees.
Yet despite it all, Obama made Vivek Kundra, a past shoplifter who claimed a biology degree that he did not earn, Federal Chief Investment Officer. Obama also appointed Aneesh Chopra, one of his donors, Chief Information Officer.
Lord help us if Giffords gets her way.
Stefanini is the principal and founder of Velocitos Corporation. He has over 20 years experience working in the software industry and has been the CTO, Vice President, or Director of five companies in Silicon Valley.”
are you saying this is from a newsletter or ??
It was a reader’s letter to a blog commenting on the H1B visa situation and the myth of the bright Indian worker.
That’s not to say there aren’t any bright Indian workers, but apparently not to the degree the media would have us believe.
But, my point overall is that it is basically a free-for-all now here in the US by the many and varied immigrant groups. While I’m sure there are a few individuals who are here for life, liberty and the pursuit of happiness, it would appear that many are only here for the beer. Here to get theirs. A bunch of maggots, feeding on the flesh of a dying America.
Yet despite it all, Obama made Vivek Kundra, a past shoplifter who claimed a biology degree that he did not earn, Federal Chief Investment Officer.
Kundra has made it a priority to focus on the following areas: (1) ensuring openness and transparency, (2) lowering the cost of government, (3) cyber-security, (4) participatory democracy, and (5) innovation.[23] One of Mr. Kundra’s first projects was the launch of Data.gov, a site for providing access to raw government data.
wikipedia
Which one’s righter?
Depends. Anyone can write whatever they want in wikipedia, including Kundra.
The ultimate test is the end product. Don’t listen to a lot of PR talk, just see what’s actually done.
Windows Vista, anyone?
Anyone can write whatever they want in wikipedia,
It has been written about many times. Selective entries, omissions.
“The corporate cartels, which own the Republican Party, want cheap labor.”
I find it unforgivable that, in this poor work environment, nothing is being done to address the illegal hiring practices of businesses. There are innumerable companies, mostly large corporations, where illegal aliens are working in broad daylight, yet NOTHING is done about it. In the meantime, legal citizens are without jobs. If the PTB were really interested in addressing the jobs issue, and inequitable pay, they would be doing something about this.
Another thing that I find terribly troubling is that the moment someone speaks out against illegal immigration they’re automatically labeled a racist. This is disgusting. Calling someone a racist is a very serious charge, and one that is being wrongfully leveled on honest, law abiding citizens who are only interested in protecting a country overrun by law breakers and special interests.
GrizzlyBear,
Excellent points all. It’s just that, every time there’s a downturn in the economy these very points are raised. Time and time again. I recall it back in the late 80’s.
Politicians placate us as best they can, even as the cries reach a crescendo. But if they can just hold off, stall and distract meaningful debate and offer amnesty/compromises, then they’ve done their job.
Things continue unabated and they just hope and pray the economy turns around ‘enough’ to stifle all that ‘belly-aching’. That why ( and I realize she’s no one’s fave around ‘here’ ) but Michelle M has kept that drumbeat steady even in the best of times. When presumably the rest of us were using our MEW to buy SUV’s so we could make a solo run to return a DVD crosstown.
We have the best government money can buy and it’s the one we deserve.
“nothing is being done to address the illegal hiring practices of businesses.”
Nothing?? What about e-Verify? I heard that program is actually doing well but still has some problems. Also my firm is encountering a lot of e-Verify requirements now with public works projects.
http://tinyurl.com/yzp45kr
The illegal immigration lobby has incredible resources at its disposal. The corporate cartels, which own the Republican Party, want cheap labor.
The prospect of “Democrat on Arrival” illegal aliens being yet another mass voting bloc to pander to in exchange for votes has Pelosi & Co. salivating.
Love the balance! Totally agree.
Wow oh wow, did any of you google to find out what actually happened to the esteemed Lou Doobs? Any of you take a look at what the police are saying about the shooting? Any of you take a look at the date the shooting occurred?
Any one, any one. Looks like some of you took the line, hook and bait and swallowed.
Some guy responded that if his own wife were being shot at, he would be way more upset than LouDoobs was acting.
Me too. If it had really happened, I daresay, most here would be over the top with visible emotion, ala today’s posts.
I got this in an email regarding property taxes. The first is ranked by taxes paid, and the second is by house value.
http://www.taxfoundation.org/taxdata/show/25429.html
http://www.taxfoundation.org/taxdata/show/25428.html
New York most unfriendly to homeowners, Louisanna most friendly. Trying to remember why I moved from Louisanna to New York!
And look at all the Texas counties. Fort Bend one of the highest?
all the Texas counties ?
Yep…No state income tax has its trade offs…
Woohoo! My county is #22.
I was talking with a friend about this the other day. His opinion was that property taxes were more fair than a state income tax + sales tax as everyone has to pay(assuming it is rolled into the price of rent), even those who don’t have legitimate jobs or would not otherwise pay taxes.
Low state taxes (see below).
You really have to look at the state and local tax burden as a share of personal income.
For example, in NY (unlike almost everywhere else) the state forces local governments to pay for a large share of its Medicaid program, a massive cost that keeps state taxes down and inflates local taxes. In Michigan, the state covers most of the cost of public schools.
Fort Bend County is still booming and is almost nothing but middle to upper class. This is mostly due to Sugarland, but the Richmond/Rosenburg area is starting to get its share of spill over.
Very, very high end area.
Also, the highways in that area have been vastly improved. Some of the best I’ve ever seen.
If I could live anywhere along the Texas Gulf Coast region, it would be Sugarland.
Visit the Fort Bend County and City of Sugarland websites to see why.
live anywhere along the Texas Gulf Coast region, it would be Sugarland.
Tom Delay land, IIRC.
Don’t worry, he’s been very effectively neutralized.
But yes, it’s a very conservative area. Rich people tend to be that way.
And even though I’m not a conservative (moderate if you must know) I cannot deny that Sugarland is a very nice place to live. Just a shame you can’t a decent job unless you have your Masters degree.
I’ll be compiling detailed Census of Governments data when its released. But you need to look at the total state AND local tax burden as a share of people’s income.
New York City tops them all — remember we have a local income tax in addition to the property tax. New York State as a whole is number one, and well above New Jersey, although that may change as New Jersey goes broke.
The Northeast in general has relatively lower state taxes, and higher local taxes, as a share of personal income. That means there is more inequality, with regard to tax rates and services provided, than in the Red States, as the wealthy hide in exclusive enclaves.
Of couse New York State’s relatively low state taxes are actually at or slightly above the national average as a share of its residents’s income.
Those tax% stats for FL counties are misleading because of Save our homes. Probably for Cali counties also.
If you buy a $201,200 home in Volusia cty FL your tax bill would be closer to $4,000/yr the first yr and maybe $3,000 yr thereafter, not the $1,555 listed. Your neighbor could be paying $900.
Yay, Missoula Co is no. 1 in Montana! We’re at .90% of value, which is about right, depending on what you mean by “value” LOL. I’m just glad I don’t have to sell right now.
I’d like to see Onondaga Cty, NY ex the slummy side of Syracuse properties. When you include large numbers of $10k and $25k homes concentrated in a few smaller areas of the city, it skews the results of the whole county.
WooHoo….. The recession is over.
Well, the censored GDP number is out and guess what - The Great Recession is OVER!!! I just knew you could do it Bammy, all I had to do was believe. I should never have doubted you.
Great! Now we can stop the rest of the stimulus money from being spent.
And the Senate can immediately cancel the planned extension of the
first-time home buyer’s tax credit. After all, there is no need to stimulate fraud if the economy is already back on its feet.Oops — don’t try using tags before coffee…
Here is what I was trying to post.
“stimulate fraud”
‘Any’ fraud is ‘good’ fraud!
It’s kind of funny how they summarily struck the “new home buyer” description from the tax credit. It begins to look more and more like a closet REIC subsidy program, and less and less like something designed to actually benefit the officially-advertised recipients of the fiscally-funded largess.
What? Gubmint dishonesty? Say it ain’t so…
Stimulus jobs overstated by thousands
Oct 29, 6:35 AM (ET)
WASHINGTON (AP) - An early progress report on President Barack Obama’s economic recovery plan overstates by thousands the number of jobs created or saved through the stimulus program, a mistake that White House officials promise will be corrected in future reports.
The government’s first accounting of jobs tied to the $787 billion stimulus program claimed more than 30,000 positions paid for with recovery money. But that figure is overstated by least 5,000 jobs, according to an Associated Press review of a sample of stimulus contracts.
The AP review found some counts were more than 10 times as high as the actual number of jobs; some jobs credited to the stimulus program were counted two and sometimes more than four times; and other jobs were credited to stimulus spending when none was produced.
For example:
- A company working with the Federal Communications Commission reported that stimulus money paid for 4,231 jobs, when about 1,000 were produced.
- A Georgia community college reported creating 280 jobs with recovery money, but none was created from stimulus spending.
- A Florida child care center said its stimulus money saved 129 jobs but used the money on raises for existing employees.
SAVED 129 jobs?! How big is this “child care center?” A large elementary school might have that many TOTAL employees.
Stories from whole cloth again?
That’s one heck of a student/teacher ratio.
O.k, o.k. We’ve all had our little fun on this ( and I got a smirk out of it too… )
Today, on the 80th Anniversary ( surprised ‘that’ hasn’t been mentioned yet? ) I’m pretty sure FDR’s subsequent CCC projects were a ‘bit’ over stated too?
A story about that… in Maryland there’s a park (I forget the name - it’s near Columbia) that’s got a placard showing how the park was built by CCC project, by hundreds of workers with shovels. They intentionally didn’t use machines to move the earth, because that would mean less jobs, since it would take less people to do the same work.
Just an example of how jobs data can be *very* misleading. There can be decreases in unemployment with zero increase in actual production.
But even production (e.g. as measured by GDP numbers) isn’t an accurate measure of growth, until it’s compared with debt growth. For instance if you hire a bunch of people to build a new house for you, and pay them with borrowed money - are you actually richer after you have your house? No. You’re only richer if you have a new house with no new debt, or at least less new debt than the house is worth.
In other words - stimulus based growth is not real economic growth. Real economic growth happens when stimulus is non-existent.
GDP went up last quarter by $150 Billion. But we spent about $200 Billion in stimulus funds to get it. That’s not including other funds from TARP, F/F MBS purchases, etc. That’s not growth at all - it’s shrinkage still.
Road building in India is all labor. The gov.
places a family every 100 meters along where
the road is planned and then dumps 5 tons
of boulders right next to their tent. They
live out of their tent, cook and relieve themselves beside the future road while they reduce the boulders to road gravel with hand sledges. The spread the gravel along their stretch of road by hand and baskets. When done, they’re moved to another spot.
It puts people to work and the gov. doesn’t
have to by any thing from Caterpillar.
Road building in India is all labor. The gov.
places a family every 100 meters along where
the road is planned and then dumps 5 tons
of boulders right next to their tent. They
live out of their tent, cook and relieve themselves beside the future road while they reduce the boulders to road gravel with hand sledges. The spread the gravel along their stretch of road by hand and baskets. When done, they’re moved to another spot.
It puts people to work and the gov. doesn’t
have to by any thing from Caterpillar.
Lucky dogs.
If the government *really* cared about them - they wouldn’t give them boulders to break up, they’d make each family dig boulders out of the ground instead, and carry them to the road site themselves. That would create more jobs.
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/33521953/ns/us_news-security/
Score another one for the good guys…
I saw a larger article on this yesterday. The leader of this radical group is the former H. Rap Brown, who is in prison.
This could be the basis for the next Sean Penn movie.
The censored GDP number? LOL. Do tell. I am curious to hear about this censoring.
Don’t get so hung up on Bammy. He, like all other presidents has no influence on the economy. The business cycle does its thing regardless of who is in the WH. If president did have the power to “create jobs”, unemployment would be at 0% always.
The recession was over 6 months ago.
“The recession was over 6 months ago.”
Lol. You should do stand-up.
The recession may be officially over, but all that proves is the uselessness of the current definition of recession.
Exactly. The real problem is the deteriorating employment situation. Until that is remedied, things will continue to get worse. By remedied I don’t mean stopping the job losses, I mean recovering those jobs. We haven’t seen a job growth rate in decades, even in the healthiest of times, which would even make a significant dent in the numbers of unemployed should the trend reverse course starting as soon as next month. Therefore, it looks as if there will be a very high unemployment rate for the next several decades, or more. This does not bode well for an economy based mostly on consumer discretionary spending- a point rarely addressed by the MSM.
When my husband the retired (against his will) can get a good job again, then we know the recession will be over. Until then, hunker down and hang onto your nickles and dimes. I think next year is going to be rough. I remember reading that the stock market recovered a little bit after the Crash in 1929, and that the real Great Depression didn’t actually start until 2 years later. I was listening to a program about the crash on NPR on my way home yesterday, and it retold the story of Groucho Marx losing $ 300K in the stock market back then. There was hope that there would be some continued recovery from the crash, and then the serious recession/depression started a couple of years later. People who thought they had it bad in 1929 werer devastated in 1931-32. I’m wating for 2010-2011 to see what happens. I’m wondering if the economy will follow a similar pattern of decline this time.
etold the story of Groucho Marx losing $ 300K in the stock market back then.
Well, all I can hope then is it portends some really good humorous movies will be made. Didn’t he make his best Marx movies when he was forced to return to work?
I could sure use a good belly laugh today.
good belly laugh today
That’s what southparkstudios.com is for. Watch online.
… 6 months ago
sure is taking my company a long time to give back my normal salary and re-instate the 401K matching if that is the case. if/when that happens I will believe the recession/depression is over.
OK. So the economy is now all based on your 401k balance. Got it.
How about an economy that is over 70% based on consumer spending relying on consumers who decide it’s better to save than to spend?
99.999% of the population that doesn’t read this blog is spending. You probably weren’t paying attention to Apple’s earnings, or Dell’s, or Intel’s or Amazon’s or Google’s. All had blowout quarters. Aaple had its best quarter ever selling iphones and imacs.
But you’re right, nobody’s spending a dime.
combo,
Good point. All the while we’ve busied ourselves with how NAR had effectively “pulled sales forward” by putting young couples -straight- into “dream homes” ( bypassing those dreary starter/trade-up “dumps” ) and really lost sight of how everthing ELSE had been pulled forward too?
Using El Credito every step of the way!
The straw-man rhetorical technique (sometimes called straw person) is the practice of refuting weaker arguments than one’s opponents actually offer. It is not a logical fallacy to disprove a weak argument. Rather, this fallacy lies in declaring one argument’s conclusion to be wrong because of flaws in another argument.
One can set up a straw man in several different ways:
1. Present only a portion of the opponent’s arguments (often a weak one), refute it, and pretend that all of their arguments have been refuted.
2. Present the opponent’s argument in weakened form, refute it, and pretend that the original has been refuted.
3. Present a misrepresentation of the opponent’s position, refute it, and pretend that the opponent’s actual position has been refuted.
4. Present someone who defends a position poorly as the defender, refute their arguments, and pretend that every argument for that position has been refuted.
5. Invent a fictitious persona with actions or beliefs that are criticised, and pretend that that person represents a group that the speaker is critical of.
I hereby declare Eddie straw man king of the Housing Bubble Blog.
“99.999% of the population that doesn’t read this blog is spending.”
Can this be backed up by fact, or is this just another case of Eddie talking out of his @ss?
A recession is over when the decline in economic output stops, NOT when economic output gets back to where it was before the recession started.
Kinda like August 31, 1945 in Hiroshima. The bombing was indeed over.
A recession is over when the decline in economic output stops, NOT when economic output gets back to where it was before the recession started.
That’s the government’s definition - but by that definition the Great Depression ended in 1933. How many people really believe that though?
Can this be backed up by fact, or is this just another case of Eddie talking out of his @ss?
I have a hard time telling where @ss ends and Eddie begins.
lmao…
From The New Yorker: “… this recession has permanently remade American consumers, turning them from spendtrifts into tightwads.”
http://www.newyorker.com/talk/financial/2009/10/12/091012ta_talk_surowiecki
you left off my forced paycut and company stopped matching 401k contributions. if/when they re-instate those back to previous levels or higher , then I will believe the recession is over. Because then I will have tangible proof that life is better for my company at least. it will be my own personal green shoot!
“…it will be my own personal green shoot!”
I like that, especially from a fellow named…rusty!
OK. So the economy is now all based on your 401k balance. Got it.
that’s impressive, but not nearly as impressive as my bringing the rally to an end by moving $3000 to Vanguard TSM.
Oh wait, it’s still on! Go Kermit!
haha, I gave Fidelity 5k, they lost 3k, then had the temerity to charge me a ‘low balance’ fee! That was soon rectified with a phone call. I think your power still trumps mine
The recession was over 6 months ago.
Why? Because the media said so?
eddie just -wants- to believe. Some face reality better than others.
Well, if “they” say so, then it must be, and we will all run amuck, spreading $ 5 & $ 10 dollar bills from our wallets into the cash registers at Sears. Oh wait, I don’t like Sears very much. So sorry.
The bar at Chili’s was at least 3/4 full last night watching the game, eating free chips. THE RECESSION MUST BE OVER!! or was it the 3 course for $20 that brought them in, almost as cheap as eating at In-and_Out.
GDP = (exports - imports) + !!**<>**!! + investment + consumption.
fill in the blank eddie.
(not sure why the blank turned out looking like that)
It would be interesting to see what GDP is minus the !!****!!
Then we could brag about how effective our !!****!! is!
The recession was over 6 months ago.
Did you come up with that brilliant thought while masturbating to a picture of Larry Kudlow? Or was it Dennis Kneale?
Ben was saying something about 12 year olds….
Your post about the recession being done 6 months ago was an insult to all the people that have been crushed in the past year and to future generations that have to pay to clean up this mess. It doesn’t deserve responses that are contemplative and serious. Now get back to Larry and Dennis. And while you are at it, “go get your f—ing shine box”.
NYCityBoy, your comments are, as always music to my ears. Sometimes it’s not just the substance of your comments, but the eloquence with which they are delivered.
Carry on!
+1
Eddie’s comments are like those that I heard from an accquaintance whose wife works for a major US conglomerate. He laughed at my assertion that there were no green shoots, insisted that we are in a recovery and spoke of how much money that he and his wife make an hour (it was hundreds).
His audience was a college professor who can never retire, the prof’s two sons who are jobless, a post-doc who can’t find a job and a recent graduate from a master’s program in science, also jobless.
These comments sound more and more like, “Let them eat cake” to those who have been robbed by the maybe 3000 banksters who have all of the money. The anger was palpable and it is growing.
MrBubble
….ended six months ago????
Darn my company didn’t get the memo,as I was laid off five months ago. I stopped in there last week. A lot fewer workers around. They will probably completly shut down in March.
He is humorous is a witty, sarcastic way. You are humorous in a “how could he really be so clueless” way.
Did you come up with that brilliant thought while masturbating to a picture of Larry Kudlow? Or was it Dennis Kneale?
This visual is almost as horrible as the Rand/Greenspan from yesterday.
or was it Rand/Greenspan/Corcoran?
He, like all other presidents has no influence on the economy.
So can we stop blaming Bush now?
So can we stop blaming Bush now ??
No….Cause & Effect….
Cause and effect?
http://tinyurl.com/63jl48
“House Debtorship, The DebtSlave Society and George Bush”
Is there a AAA insurance Office and a B of A bank in Baghdad & Kabul for the “democratic” Islamists?
No, but there is the Bank of Afghanistan. It’s funny seeing it show up on my bank statements when I do a withdrawal here.
Do you have to take off your sun glasses & hat like they require here in the US of A?
So can we stop blaming Bush now?
I never really blamed Bush for the economic mess. Clinton had a lot to do with it as well.
Now all the OTHER stuff Bush did,…….
Habeus? Habeus?…. Where are ya dude? We miss you!
Lets start with Reagan, Bush1, Clinton, Bush 2=8yrs.
For over 30 yrs this country has progressively been given for free to corporations, and corporations won in the late 70s PERSONHOOD which allows them the 4th.
Freedoms that should only apply to human beings, not non-entities as corporations. We are all duped, hopefully not beyond repair, but it could take as many yrs to get out of it IF there was good intent on all Americans parts, including “elected officials”.
I dont’ see that happening.
The recession was over 6 months ago.
I guess we’ll see how correct that is in six months.
Mon Oct 26, 2009 8:24pm EDT
By Steve Gorman
LOS ANGELES (Reuters) - As Los Angeles housing advocates launched a campaign warning of mortgage rescue scams, a couple hit by foreclosure are charged with torturing two loan-modification agents they suspected of fraud, authorities said on Monday.
The couple, Daniel Weston and Mary Ann Parmelee, and three other people are accused of luring their two victims to an office where the men were tied up, held for hours and beaten, a spokeswoman for the Los Angeles County district attorney said.
Police were called after one of the victims managed to escape, said the spokeswoman, Shiara Davila-Morales. The incident occurred on Wednesday in the town of Glendale, just north of Los Angeles.
Weston, Parmelee and the three other defendants each were charged with two counts of torture, two counts of false imprisonment by violence and two counts of second-degree robbery, according to a criminal complaint filed against them.
Weston, 52, and Parmelee, 51, both arrested last week and jailed on $1 million bond, shared a house in the suburb of La Canada-Flintridge that is in foreclosure, authorities said.
“The two allegedly sought loan modification assistance from the victims but believed that nothing was being done and wanted their money back,” a statement from the district attorney’s office said.
Davila-Morales added that the couple, according to investigators, believed they had been swindled.
Weston and another man, who previously served time for assault, are accused of carrying out the beatings in front of their three co-defendants, who prosecutors say had prior business ties with the two victims by having funneled loan-modification referrals to them.
Each count of felony torture, defined as inflicting “great bodily injury” for the purpose of “revenge, extortion, persuasion and for a sadistic purpose,” carries a maximum penalty of life in prison. Defense lawyers were not immediately available for comment.
The case became public as Los Angeles officials and community groups kicked off a national public-awareness effort urging homeowners to beware of bogus loan-modification programs and to report suspicious activity to authorities.
Los Angeles was selected to launch the campaign because the metropolitan region ranks among areas with the highest foreclosure rates nationwide, organizers said.
Weston, 52, and Parmelee, 51, both arrested last week and jailed on $1 million bond, shared a house in the suburb of La Canada-Flintridge that is in foreclosure, authorities said.
//////
I recall this bizarrely named place was ground zero during the recent big fires outside L.A. I remember because the name of the town was questioned many times in the newsroom … since we are, after all, a “conspiracy-minded” locale on the Web, anybody think there might be a connection between the blazes and foreclosures?
Weston an Parmalee for housing/finance czar!
Wow! Sorry to hear that. Whether or not these guys were con-artists, this isn’t the way to handle it.
Or ‘is’ it? Show me (1) instance of RE-related fraud over the last several years where the law -wasn’t- taken into the hands of REIC’sters or their ever-willing accomplices? ( read borrowers )
This is SO typical of the REIC mindset. They’d be busting more knee caps if they thought they could get away with it. Sadly, along with torching their failed specuvestments ( and blaming it on ELF! ) this won’t be the last we’ve heard of these types of instances. Long Live The Cartel!
What DinOr said…
I’m more of a “steal their hubcaps” kind of a guy myself.
cereal,
LOL! Yeah, slash tires… m-a-y-b-e?
Ben had a great link about an appraiser/trainer from Seattle that had been personally threatened with a GUN while refusing to rubber stamp appraisals in Bend, OR.
Just incredible the amount of verbal abuse and threats that guy had taken. Every bit as juicy as the movie Boiler Room. Total thug mentality in the REIC. We’ve seen this bs on everything from equity-skimming operations to realtwhores taking the keys out of the lockboxes. Best part is, ‘anyone’ can join!
Things are a little “different” in Vegas. They have a different breed of cretin there. If only what happened in Vegas stayed in Vegas!
//////
Worries about the fragility of the housing market, fanned by the real estate industry, may prompt an extension of the tax credit. The controversial program has spurred as many as 400,000 buyers, including Brenda Colon, a nurse in Las Vegas.
“If you had told me in January that I would be buying a house, I would have laughed,” said Ms. Colon, 48, who lives with her two daughters and granddaughter. “But the tax credit was just the kicker to throw me over.”
Yet despite the tax credit and other local and federal incentives for homebuyers in Las Vegas, prices there are continuing to fall, shedding 0.8 percent in August. The city’s home prices have declined on average more than 55 percent from their peak, more than in any other metropolis.
Whenever the tax credit finally expires, Las Vegas and every other city will have to confront the inevitable question after all such stimulus packages: what will motivate the buyers of tomorrow?
“In my office, people were buying homes left and right because of that tax credit,” said Kitty Berberick, who works for an insurance company in Las Vegas. “That credit was a godsend.”
“…what will motivate the buyers of tomorrow?”
The freedom to paint their walls any color? To feed the squirrels?
Cuz it sure won’t be the pleasure of paying higher prices and higher taxes.
“Whenever the tax credit finally expires, Las Vegas and every other city will have to confront the inevitable question after all such stimulus packages: what will motivate the buyers of tomorrow?”
Ummm… just a guess here… LOWER PRICES???
““If you had told me in January that I would be buying a house, I would have laughed,” said Ms. Colon, 48, who lives with her two daughters and granddaughter.”
And, if you told me that I’d be living with my two daughters and have a granddaughter at 48, I would have cried.
I’d be living with my two daughters and have a granddaughter at 48 ??
Exactly my thoughts also…
“If you had told me in January that I would be buying a house, I would have laughed,” said Ms. Colon, 48, who lives with her two daughters and granddaughter. “But the tax credit was just the kicker to throw me over.”
Another lemming throws herself over the cliff, only she’s too dumb to realize it yet.
But without lemmings like her we wouldn’t have gotten a 3.5% GDP number. Get with the program Sammy.
I see it so clearly now…excuse me now while I scurry to the mall to max out my credit cards.
Another lemming throws herself over the cliff ??
Providing a nest for the granddaughter drives a emotional decision ??
Another lemming throws herself over the cliff, only she’s too dumb to realize it yet.
Falling off a cliff never hurt anybody.
(now the landing at the bottom - that’s another story)
“But the tax credit was just the kicker to throw me over.”
Little does she know she was thrown overboard..
Why? She can now squat for years without making a mortgage payment. This is why house purchase prices are losing the ability to tell us the state of the economy. We have to look solely at rent prices because rentals require solid finances and people to actually make the payments. Residential purchase prices, due to the tax credit and extended payment foregiveness, no longer reflect reality.
She made a great decision. Is she smart enough to realize this and max out its “value”?
I was impressed by the thought and careful analysis that went into the big decision (all of them!), too.
They didn’t have to really put thought into it. They accidentally made what could be a good decision. People in apartments that are falling on hard times are getting kicked out after missing 2 or 3 rent payments. People that “own”, often because of the silly tax credit, can fall on hard times and potentially have 18, 24 or even 36 months of not making payments.
Sometimes it’s better to be lucky than good.
“But the tax credit was just the kicker to throw me over.”
A real Colon kicker.
Mrs. Colon is going to live up to her family name in a way she never imagined.
Getting a Colonoscopy with a joshua tree.
“That credit was a godsend.” Geez, enough already with the Obama worship.
In reality $8K isn’t much compared with the price of a house. I presume its main role is to serve as the downpayment on a 3.5% down FHA mortgage, thus letting in a new generation of FBs.
It’s like that crazy $7K “homeowner’s exemption” for CA property tax. BFD. The amount is so small it acts more like a rude slap in the face than anything else.
In Idaho the homeowner’s exemption is about $100K, which really cuts the property tax on a $200K house.
Statistically double plus good times are here.
NASDAQ really outpaced the broader market yesterday. IIRC, you might have mentioned to watch out for that a while back. I’m curious to what this all looks like by lunchtime.
edge,
Now that the city has sold out their interest in parking meters, how the sale of the water dist. going?
I thought I’d share 2 conversations I had with realtors recently.
First, let me esssplain… Luuucy, the gig that I do.
I sell hard money real estate loans, most in SoCal but some in Vegas an AZ. Most of my business comes by referral of realtors so I talk with them all day.
One realtor two days ago told me he does not work with “buyers,” he is a listing agent only. He said working for buyers in this market is like “working at Kmart…making minimum wage and schlepping.”
I thought that was interesting. He mentioned the buyers are so picky and that many times you have to put 15-30 offers on 15-30 different properties before one is accepted. (In SoCal, we are back to the multiple offer days.)
Even after it’s accepted, that doesn’t mean it’s going to close. I asked him how got all of his listings and he wouldn’t tell me. Must be some HUGE secret.
The second conversation I had was with a realtor who had 80 agents in her office and she was complaining about the number of offers there were of each property and that it was so hard to get one accepted.
She mentioned the highest number of offers they had in their office on a single piece of property was 60! 60 offers for one POS single family, bank owned home were everyone thought they would “steal it and flip it.”
I know on this blog that realtors aren’t highly thought of. I can tell you some stories of some of the financially desparate ones who will pump up a property for a loan and you can just hear the lying oozing out through their yellow teeth.
A good portion of them, however, are decent people… at least decent to me. They happened to be in a profession that if they tried to go get a “real job,” they are pretty much SOL. I’m sure if they had to do it over again, they wouldn’t be schlepping “bargain hunters” around.
Looked at a older home on 1.87 acres located on
the river (read - desirable location) which needs
a bit of work listed for $299k, while down the
road an empty lot on the river with less acreage was
listed for $259K with nothing ready for building.
Listing agent told me that several people were really interested in the lot and that he had people
coming up from KA to make offers.. I was still
laughing when he hung up.
What else is funny is the Topanga Canyon medium/high-end market.
The only sound you hear is crickets chirping.
“…The only sound you hear is crickets chirping.”
What a pleasant description!
The crickets & I have been silenced by…the NAR & CAR
Amen to that! Though interesting to note that the place down the road from me on Fernwood actually passed escrow and now has real people living in it!
A quick perusal of Zillow shows it used to belong to John McEnroe and family and sold for $1.1 million.
Other than that, yes, crickets. Though they’re starting to slow down in the cooler days here.
In many areas in WA it’s easy to find raw, unimproved 5 acre parcels listed at prices equal to that of completed homes on 5 acres- which aren’t selling. The disconnect is humorous to say the least.
More evidence of the non-recovery:
Motorola forecast a higher-than-expected profit for the current quarter Thursday, when it will start selling two new Google Android phones in hopes of regaining ground lost to iPhone. After surprising Wall Street with a third-quarter profit, Motorola forecast a fourth-quarter earnings per share range with a midpoint 2 cents above Wall Street estimates.
But nobody is spending money, so how can they be profitable selling a phone that nobody will buy?
If you fire enough people you can be profitable, for a while at least.
We have a winner.
You see Eddie, the only thing that matters to most people is well, a job and the pay. Both of which are not doing so good and won’t be in the foreseeable future.
And since the PTB (and their slobbering sycophants) still can’t seem to make the connection between a 75% consumer driven economy and people not having jobs and getting pay cuts instead of raises, well, let’s just say you ain’t seen nothin’ yet.
But “recovery” won’t be it.
Why by manufacturing it for less money, of course!
Sales = 0$
Costs = 0$
Profit = 0$
Expected profit = (100$) — loss
=> higher than expected profit
=> stock goes up
Cell phones do not an economy make. You keep clamouring on about the recession ending and pointing to cruddy sectors as your proof. Tell you what Eddie, when DRYS returns to $60 you can make room for me in your boat, but as of now only HFT on lower and lower volume and Gov’t purchases of Tresuries is keeping your dream alive.
See, X-Philly, I told you so– we can too sell condos down here in Wilmington [DE]! All it takes is a good old fashioned auction. Never mind that the bids topped out at only about half the original asking prices, and that the proceedings were stopped early because of the disappointing results, and that half of the building units are STILL unsold after the auction– we’re on a roll! Now I want you take back all those nasty things you said about Wilmington!
www dot delawareonline dot com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=2009910250377
“disappointing results”
What exactly were they ‘expecting’? A bidding WAR!? Somebody needs to tell these guys to get real. LVG? You’re in charge.
Did I say something nasty about Wilmington?
I like it there, they have a fine luggage store and no sales tax.
And the St. Anthony Italian festival every June.
This should be no surprise. Given the fact that you’re talking about heavily populated New Castle County Delaware spells disaster for Kent and Sussex County Delaware.
They have stopped construction on a Wilshire Corridor highrise condo here on the Westside of LA. All deposits have been refunded, and the builders are wrapping the tower in blankets. It’s less than a mile from my office.
Another tower about 1/4 mile from it is even taller, and I can olny surmise that it will suffer the same fate.
cereal,
That is a LOT of blankets! Wow, seriously? Kind of sounds like ‘mothballing’. Can we put the NAR National Headquarters in there somewhere?
Wouldn’t ‘that’ be fitting! They can park in the rubble ( unattended ) and walk a mile thru what surely will become gang central in the very near future. Perfect.
Move-up Buyers to Get Homebuyer Tax Credit-NEW Oct. 29th
http://www.upi.com/Real-Estate/2009/10/29/Move-up-Buyers-to-Get-Homebuyer-Tax-Credit/6661256816327/
Like I’ve joked before, if we wait long enough they’ll eventually be handing out free houses.
Will they extend the credit to flippers and speculators on the next renewal?
Ugh. Great. Guess I’m on the sidelines for at least another year.
You don’t mean you will skip the yearly winter nesting urge?
The urge will be there, but I - once again - have to suppress it.
Be patient, eastcoaster- you’re doing a good job.
And just two days ago they managed to scrap up another loan for 5 billion dollars to stop this from happening…
CIT Bonds Show Bankruptcy Inevitable as Swap Expires (Update1)
Oct. 29 (Bloomberg) — CIT Group Inc. bond and credit- default swap prices show that investors are betting the 101- year-old commercial lender will file for bankruptcy after a debt exchange expires today.
Since CIT Chief Executive Officer Jeffrey Peek started a $30 billion debt swap Oct. 1, the company’s notes due Nov. 3 have dropped 13 cents to 67 cents on the dollar, according to Trace, the bond-price reporting system of the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority. Holders of the $500 million in notes are being offered 90 cents on the dollar in new debt and equity in an out-of-court exchange. They would get 70 cents on the dollar in bonds and new stock in a pre-packaged bankruptcy.
“We believe they will file for bankruptcy within the week, provided nothing unexpected occurs,” Adam Steer, an analyst with CreditSights Inc. in New York, said in a telephone interview.
CIT, which lost $5 billion in the past nine quarters and failed to get a second round of taxpayer funding in July, is seeking to avert collapse by asking bondholders to agree to the swap or vote for the pre-packaged bankruptcy. It faces opposition from billionaire investor Carl Icahn, who says he’s the largest bondholder, with $2 billion in debt. If CIT is forced into a “free-fall” bankruptcy, unsecured claims may fetch as little as 6 cents on the dollar, Peek said.
Why don’t they just rename that company Rasputin Financial Group? It just will not die.
We were talking about GS yesterday and the GDP report. Goldman was saying “Ahead of Thursday’s U.S. gross domestic product numbers, Goldman Sachs cut its third-quarter GDP estimate to 2.7%, following lower-than-expected durable-goods shipments Wednesday morning.” and stocks started dropping. Today the GDP is double-plus good. My guess: I believe they did have the number and came out with their bogus 2.7 estimate and then bought into the selling. Now they’re selling into the buying (or potentially holding). What do you think?
I am shocked, shocked to find out that there is gambling going on here.
Have you tried 22 tonight?
“Dump, then pump”
Michael, if you are good oly will send you a tinfoil hat for Christmas.
I’m not too far South of her. I may have to drive up and exchange beer for a nice hat! Can you work out the details? Oh, and I know it’s not vogue, but I prefer my hats to be lined with lead.
prefer my hats to be lined with lead
Isn’t that heavy? I understand the superior efficacy of lead, but doesn’t the weight have a detrimental effect on your spine?
Team Barry… Bitness as usual.
Stimulus dollars going to accused contractors
More than $1.2 billion awarded to firms on watchdog’s list
Washington Post Thursday, October 29, 2009
President Obama and members of Congress told federal agencies earlier this year to avoid awarding funds under the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act to contractors with troubled histories of work for the federal government.
But that isn’t happening at numerous agencies, a Washington Post analysis shows. So far, 33 federal departments and agencies have awarded more than $1.2 billion in stimulus contracts to at least 30 companies that are ranked by one watchdog group as among the most egregious offenders of state and federal laws.
Government records show that as a group, these contractors have sold defective products, manufactured safety tests, submitted false travel claims and padded contracts with fraudulent fees.
“Even a simple Google search could raise red flags about some contractors’ performance,” said Rep. Carolyn B. Maloney (D-N.Y.).
Honeywell International, for example, is defending itself against a Justice Department lawsuit accusing it of selling defective shields for bulletproof vests to the Defense and Homeland Security departments, costing the federal government tens of millions of dollars. But that did not prevent the company from winning $2.9 million in stimulus contracts from the Air Force.
On a larger scale, UT-Battelle, a partnership of the University of Tennessee and Battelle Memorial Institute, has been awarded 43 Recovery Act contracts worth more than $331 million by the Department of Energy for work at the Oak Ridge National Laboratory. In every instance, competitive bidding rules were waived, but officials said the contracts were largely extensions of competitively bid work that was already underway at the site.
Obama explicitly warned against awarding contracts without competitive bidding in a memo released to agency heads weeks after he signed the act, saying they create “a risk that taxpayer funds will be spent on contracts that are wasteful, inefficient, subject to misuse.” (So far, half of the $16 billion awarded under the stimulus has gone to contractors that did not have to compete for the work.)
In Colorado said it best yesterday:
“I predict that the PTB will continue to ransack the US until there is nothing left to steal. Then the US will dissolve with little warning as the USSR did.”
Nice work if you can get it.
ANyone know roughly how much was paid out in bailout and stimulis money in 2008/2009? I want to find out what percentage of the 14 trillion US GDP it equals. Bet its around 3-4%.
I think it was up to almost 1+ trillion.
Plenty of spending going on, look how much this dead guy? earned…
Jackson has earned $72 mil since death
Pop star is No. 3 on Forbes’ list of dead celebrity earnings.
Oct 28, 2009
Even before the “This Is It” opening, Michael Jackson had earned $90 million in the past year, with most of it coming since his death five months ago.
That sizable sum put him third on the Forbes list of dead celebrities making the most money.
Jackson earned less than the $350 million that fashion designer Yves Saint Laurent scored in the past year, and the $235 million earned by the songwriting duo Richard Rodgers and Oscar Hammerstein.
Forbes counted money earned from October 2008-October 2009, even for Jackson, who died June 25. But about $72 million — or 80% of the $90 million earned in the past 12 months — came after Jackson’s death, said a spokesperson for GreenLight, a consultancy company that represents “delebs,” their term for dead celebrities still earning money.
On Wednesday, Jackson — along with AEG Entertainment and Sony — began raking in money for next year’s list as the concert-rehearsal documentary “This Is It” opened in 3,500 domestic theaters and around the world.
“…That sizable sum put him third on the Forbes list of dead celebrities making the most money.”
Just think how much is “saving” by being unable to “spend”.
It’s every capitalist’s wet dream. All profit and no labor costs!
I refuse to contribute to Micheal’s fortune, whether he be live or dead.
Where does it end?
First Too big to fail and now too Fat to kill.
NJ prosecutors question man using ‘fat’ defense
By BETH DeFALCO
Associated Press Writer
HACKENSACK, N.J. — A Florida man who claims he was too fat to have killed his former son-in-law faces cross-examination by a New Jersey prosecutor.
Edward Ates claims he didn’t have the energy to accurately shoot Paul Duncsak (DUNS’-kak) and make a quick getaway. The 62-year-old was 285 pounds when Duncsak was killed in 2006.
Prosecutors claim Ates drove from Florida to Duncsak’s home in Ramsey, climbed a staircase to shoot the 40-year-old pharmaceutical executive and then fled to Louisiana. They’re cross-examining him Thursday.
The defense says the prosecution theory would mean that Ates would have had to run up the stairs, but that Ates couldn’t have done that and fired a gun accurately.
If anyone has drafted a letter objecting to new legislation extending the house-debtor tax credit, please post it so I can voice it to my reps and sens.
TIA
Sorry to say, it’s to late, the extension has been bought and paid for.
$8,000 tax credit REALLY costs $43,000 per house!
Barry Ritholtz weighs in on what a bad idea it is to extend the $8,000 home buyer tax credit that expires Nov. 30. Congress is talking about it again — only now they’re discussing raising the credit to an amazing $15,000 and offering it to all home buyers instead of just first-timers. He references a Brookings report that estimates 85 percent of the people using the first-time buyer credit would have bought houses anyway. So the cost to taxpayers per extra house sold isn’t $8,000. It’s $43,000.
For a $15,000 subsidy extended to everybody buying a house as their primary residence, Brookings estimates, the cost to taxpayers move each extra house would really be $253,000!
Beyond the huge expense and fiscal inefficiency, Barry says, the credit is keeping house prices from finding their true level, which is bad for the economy in the long run.
“They” have nixed the $15,000.00 since this report, so the cost per house now drops to around $29,000.00.
Huge savings!
regarding that 8k credit….. The thrill is gone
“…85 percent of the people using the first-time buyer credit would have bought houses anyway”
…top of the 2nd inning:
8K / 15K tax credit = 1
McMansion houses = 0
Extending the tax credit over the winter is kind of like giving out “off season” tickets.
I am still holding out for my $1 million voucher to buy a house. We should get there by the 5th or 6th incarnation of this bill.
by that time , houses will be worth 20 bazillion of our zimbabwe-like (replete with photos of Obama on them) dollars.
At least people won’t be underwater any more. And the savers can stop lording their puny tens or hundreds of thousands over the rest of us.
“…only now they’re discussing raising the credit to an amazing $15,000 and offering it to all home buyers instead of just first-timers.”
We are in the process of lining up two mortgage-free neighbors to do a round-robin sell-and-buy with us once this takes effect. We won’t even actually move; we’ll just put up with walking to the nearby mailbox to pick up our mail. Then as soon as the law allows, we’ll do the reverse round-robin. You get an easy, legal tax credit, less the state and county property transfer taxes and the incidental costs of a new driver’s license and registration. Woohoo!
At $8K maybe. At $15K for sure.
do a round-robin sell-and-buy with us once this takes effect. We won’t even actually move; we’ll just put up with walking to the nearby mailbox to pick up our mail. Then as soon as the law allows, we’ll do the reverse round-robin.
Wow. That sounds do able. Good luck, let us know how it works out. Hopefully you won’t be wearing an orange suit in your future. I won’t tell. shhhh
First-time jobless claims drop less than expected
New US jobless claims drop less than expected, as labor market remains weak.
WASHINGTON (AP) — The number of Americans claiming jobless benefits for the first time dropped less than expected last week, evidence that the labor market remains weak even as the economy is recovering.
The Labor Department said Thursday its tally of newly laid-off workers seeking unemployment insurance fell by 1,000 to a seasonally-adjusted 530,000. Analysts expected a steeper drop to 521,000, according to a survey by Thomson Reuters.
The report came on the same day the Commerce Department said the economy grew at a 3.5 percent pace in the July-September quarter, snapping a record streak of four straight quarterly declines. But the economy isn’t growing quickly enough to spur much hiring.
Initial claims need to fall below about 450,000 to signal that employers are actually adding jobs, several economists said. Still, many saw some positive signs in the report.
The number of people continuing to claim unemployment insurance benefits dropped 148,000 to 5.8 million, a steeper fall than expected and the sixth straight decrease. Those figures lag initial claims by a week.
That doesn’t include the nearly 4 million people receiving benefits from federal emergency programs during the week of Oct. 10, a decline of about 71,000 from the previous week. Many of those recipients likely are exhausting their benefits and falling off the rolls without finding jobs, some economists said.
Hey! Where’s Eddie? Let’s get them all cell phones and call it good…
I am in the cell phone business and had 40 stores nationwide on the 1st of the year now down to 22. Sure it is booming. The carriers are all dropping the rates as we can not sell any phones. Granted there is a saturation factor, but we have chargebacks which means the commission we earn gets taken back if the customer cancels within 6 months. Guess what my chargebacks have doubled every month. Get a clue EDDY! People cannot pay their bills.
I noticed that too. Rates for the majors is being advertised like crazy. And I suspect it will lower even more during Christmas/then winter.
CB Richard Ellis 3-Q profit plummets 70%
The Business Review (Albany)
Net income fell nearly 70 percent during the third quarter at CB Richard Ellis Group Inc., as the commercial brokerage firm continued to suffer from the worldwide slump in real estate.
Net income, excluding one-time charges, declined to $12.4 million, or 4 cents per diluted share, from $40.4 million, or 19 cents per diluted share, in the third quarter of 2008, the Los Angeles-based company announced today.
CB Richard Ellis has an office in Albany.
Earnings adjusted for one-time charges related to internal cost cutting were $21.6 million, or 8 cents per diluted share, in the third quarter, compared to $56.1 million, or 27 cents per diluted share, in the same quarter last year.
Total revenue in the third quarter was $1 billion, down 22 percent from $1.29 billion in the third quarter of 2008.
Brett White, president and CEO, said CB Richard Ellis continued to make strides in the third quarter toward managing its capital and positioning the company to grow profitably as the economy improves.
“We substantially strengthened our balance sheet by extending maturities and amortization on almost $1 billion of bank debt,” White said. “Operationally, our business continued to perform well amid a very difficult global market environment.”
The company took steps during the quarter that will enable it to achieve its goal of cutting annualized operating costs by $600 million, White said.
“Turning now to an announcement that caught our eye yesterday, the St. Louis Fed stated that they were concerned about Option Arm and Alt-A loan delinquency rates. I am too. Attached is a chart of delinquencies in the Option ARM universe. The key takeaway from this chart is that low rates have allowed some borrowers in this type of loan to make the minimum payment and still cover at least a part of their principal or delay the time till they reach their negative amortization cap. Despite that fact, delinquencies have moved steadily higher with the 30 day + delinquency now reaching close to 50% of all outstanding Option Arms. If our economists are right about the size and timing of the Fed Funds rate hike (approx. 1% per quarter starting in Q2 next year), the impact on borrowers of these types of loans could be very significant. Those who are slightly delinquent or barely holding on could see their payments move substantially higher with the impact possible late next year.”
“Turning now to an announcement that caught our eye yesterday, the St. Louis Fed stated that they were concerned about Option Arm and Alt-A loan delinquency rates.”
No worries! Just remember that, “A Closely-watched Pot Never Boils Over.” Alt-A and prime Option ARMs are contained
Cash on Sidelines Less than Estimated: Goldman Sachs.
29 Oct 2009 Reuters
Investors could be disappointed if they anticipate tons of money waiting to get back into the stock market, since “cash on the sidelines” is much less than estimated, Goldman Sachs analysts said.
Based on their calculations, net equity inflow from individuals, institutional investors and corporations over the next several quarters could total $600 billion, the analysts said in a research note on Wednesday.
“‘Cash on the sidelines’ is much less than the $3.4 trillion in money market mutual fund assets that market participants typically cite as the No. 1 reason stocks are poised to rally,” analysts wrote.
Investors have been keeping cash in money market mutual funds, which are considered a safe haven compared with equities.
“Cash on the sidelines” is often cited as a likely reason why stocks stand to gain more. The Standard & Poor’s 500 index is already up some 55 percent since its early March low.
Related to yesterday’s discussion - if there is supposedly $3.4 Trillion on the sidelines now, does that mean there was $5.1 Trillion on the sidelines 13 months ago, before $2 Trillion was spent on U.S. treasuries (minus the $0.3Trillion in Fed QE)?
If so - what does that mean for 4 years from now, when projections show about $3.4 of new treasuries will have been sold? Does that take 100% of all the “sideline cash” off the table for the equity markets?
GS: still living in the mark-to-fantasy bizarro world where they think they know how many angels can dance on the head of pin.
Will the Fed really end this program, or is it in their better interest to announce its end while outsourcing the operation to one of its private partners? I personally believe the stock and bond markets would crash if they stopped sitting on T-bond yields, but it would be good for the dollar thanks to the flight-to-quality effect of an asset price crash.
market pulse
Oct. 29, 2009, 11:12 a.m. EDT
Fed buys $1.936 billion in Treasurys
* Treasurys fall as U.S. economy grows (11:40a)
* Treasurys gain after 5-year note auction (Oct. 28)
* Treasurys rally most since December after auction (Oct. 27)
* Treasurys stay up after auction, credit data (Oct. 7)
By Deborah Levine
NEW YORK (MarketWatch) — The Federal Reserve Bank of New York bought $1.936 billion in Treasurys on Thursday in its last buyback in a program started in March to improve credit markets. Dealers submitted $10.978 billion in securities maturing between 2013 and 2016. Cantor Fitzgerald analysts expected a high offered amount as the closing of the program could create a “rush effect.”
…
Shell Q3 profit falls 62 pct, to cut 5,000 jobs.
(AP)
AMSTERDAM — Royal Dutch Shell PLC, Europe’s largest oil company, reported Thursday a 62 percent fall in profit for the third quarter due to lower oil prices, and said it plans to cut 5,000 jobs to cope with continuing weakness in the global economy.
Shell said net profit was $3.25 billion (euro2.21 billion), down from $8.45 billion in the same period a year ago. Sales fell 43 percent to $75.0 billion.
Shell Chief Financial Officer Simon Henry said the company is not expecting a swift economic recovery and will this year cut around 5 percent of its work force, some 5,000 jobs, primarily in middle managment.
“In Europe there are few if any signs of demand recovering…in the United States if anything there’s some bottoming, improvment in one or two subsectors but not yet firm enough to call a recovery,” he said.
The job cuts come on top of 500 layoffs among senior managment earlier this year. Around 15,000 employees will also be forced to apply to keep their jobs, and cuts among the rank and file are possible in 2010, he said.
“Around 15,000 employees will also be forced to apply to keep their jobs”
I wonder how that works. Is this a normal thing in Europe?
See here is the thing, the EU has a safety valve in their pockets-so to speak, where they tell the companies if you are thinking of laying off employees, just cut their hours, keep all of them employed and the govs will subsidize the difference. What that does is eliminate what we call Unemployement payments, and then the employees have 1- jobs, 2- cash to spend on their needs, thereby keeping the economy still going. It works out to be nearly the same thing, but they have money to purchase their needs, And the first thing that people need is a job. People lose out when they don’t work.
Seems to be working right now (better than our re-instating the continual UI) in the EU.
From the OC Register
UCLA sees 16% home-price gain in 2010
http://lansner.freedomblogging.com/2009/10/29/16-percent-gain-forecast/41779/
+
UCLA predicts OC jobs turnaround in 2011
http://economy.freedomblogging.com/2009/10/29/ucla-predicts-oc-jobs-turnaround-in-2011/
Gotta love the Anderson Forecast, taking figureing to a whole new level. Paid shills glorified as “Economist’s”, disgusting.
“UCLA sees 16% home-price gain in 2010″
Corollary: They see inflation and no interest rate increase from the Fed next year.
“…Gotta love the Anderson Forecast,”
Next they’ll prognosticate on the UCLA football season!
Oh, I bet it’s a “rosy” out come!
(Actually there is a ‘Rosy” that works in student “counseling”…but let’s not ingest.)
Good news, everyone! Chinese drywall is A-OK!
—-
Oct. 29 (Bloomberg) — U.S. investigators found elevated sulfur emissions from Chinese drywall, while stopping short of linking the building material to illnesses.
“They find chemical elements, but they don’t find enough to be detrimental to people’s health,” Florida Senator Bill Nelson told reporters after a briefing by investigators for the U.S. Consumer Product Safety Commission and other agencies.
The CPSC has received 1,900 complaints from homeowners who say the drywall emits sulfuric acid and causes headaches, asthma, bloody noses and other health woes.
The issue has become another trade fissure between the U.S. and China. U.S. consumers tossed out Chinese-made toys after millions of Chinese-made Thomas the Tank Engines and Elmos were found to have lead paint in 2007.
Lori Saltzman, director of the division of health sciences at CPSC, said “elevated levels” of sulfur emissions were found from Chinese drywall. She said the agency is working with the Department of Homeland Security to stop imports.
Nelson said he was disappointed investigators were unable to link the material to illnesses cited by consumers.
About 7 million sheets of drywall were imported from China in 2006, much of them used to rebuild homes destroyed in the hurricanes of 2004 and 2005, according to the consumer agency.
U.S. lawmakers have proposed legislation to make it easier to force overseas producers to respond to lawsuits about unsafe products, and are considering aid to the affected homeowners.
The CPSC examined the material in Chinese drywall and monitored the air in 10 homes. Investigators also traveled to China to analyze the production there.
The U.S. imported $273 billion of consumer products from China and Hong Kong last year, compared with $80 billion of imports in 1999.
All the homeowners have to do is replace their copper A/C coils and copper wiring with gold-plated versions of the same. And gold-plate the linings of their respiratory system.
Whoa! Maybe THAT’S why all those companies like Cash4Gold have sprung up.
Seriously, I think these Chinese drywall houses are examples of houses that have, or soon will have, a value of LESS than zero.
while stopping short of linking the building material to illnesses.
Good thing the FDA and the The CPSC stand behind their conclusions, all the time. Pfft.
Jacksonville, Fla. business closing after 30 years due to economy
October 29, 2009
Everything’s for sale but the dog.
The Gift Cupboard in Jacksonville is closing its doors after more than 30 years in business, and everything in the store is for sale at 25 percent off — excluding the store’s mascot Jake, the Australian Shepard.
Owner Rob Herring said the economic downturn is to blame for the store’s closing.
“This has been the worst year yet. You can’t compete with big stores,” he said. “Gift shops are somewhat of a dying breed … It’s just way too much competition.”
Smaller “mom and pop” businesses are getting hit hard by the state of the economy, Herring said.
“What are (customers) going to do? Are they going to buy gas or are they going to buy a candle?” he asked.
Herring, who also sells real estate, said he’s not sure what his next venture will be.
300 comments before 1:30 EST…. Busy day.
Well, it’s raining here and a warm fire is better
than getting wet. laughing.
Hello friends. Today is a great day for you (americans). You are out of recession. Maybe October can be recorded to be the month when green shoots grow up. And, of course, if USA is out of recession, the rest of us follow you, as like occur with Wall Street and the other stock markets.
I will be thinking that this go out of crises is absolutely fictitious and it is due the lot of money thanks to public debt has been introduced in the system, but there’s another reality hided behind that make-up and this is just bread for today and hunger for tomorrow. Santiago Niño Becerra (a Spanish economics teacher) wasn’t wrong when in his forecast told that before the system get crash everything would be made in order to keep alive the old system. But it can’t be able to support it. I think we are in a situation in that the reality is hidden and it be presented like the turn out to the crisis is real.
We have been paid attention to all theses business news in order to find out this new in which appear the real figures of our actual world economic situation, that’s could be the sign that show us at last our governments would prepare the way to the change and we could guess how our future could be. But instead, we have wasted our time listening to good news, and the Armageddon kept far behind. That’s why I want to congratulate all those greenshootist, because they have a long time of happiness, thinking they were right against the bubblist (who are wrong). I wish reality were as they draw, but I’m afraid that our government are saving time (I don’t know why) and I think the disaster is behind the corner.
With this new I have no choice that not pay attention to the evolution of economy. At last, what have to happen, will happen, although the government will make all sort of think in order we don’t notice what is happening. Is for that I think is a waste of time to pay attention to a figures absolutely precooked that don’t reflect the reality.
By the way, I’ll keep wasting my time in order to learn English and thinking about how to be more competitive and even more productive in my job, because when it comes what it have to come I can be prepared, instead in underwear like could be occur to others that think the crisis is over.
Fictitious? How can you possibly THINK such a thing?
(just kidding. you are right, it is fictitious)
The thieving bastards at the NYFed are attempting to legislate permanent uncheckable tax-payer funded recapitalization of TBTF banks.
The audacity of more of the same.
What’s mine is mine and what’s yours is mine.
Now &%$# you, I got mine!
Seagulls to Nemo’s dad: “Mine mine mine mine mine mine mine mine…”
Look inside the headline “GDP UP, RECESSION OVER” headline, and it begins to look more like bad news, more bad news, and lies being shown as good news. Oh my, how surprising. Here are some details:
“Real nonresidential fixed investment decreased 2.5 percent in the third quarter, compared with a
decrease of 9.6 percent in the second. Nonresidential structures decreased 9.0 percent, compared with a decrease of 17.3 percent. Equipment and software increased 1.1 percent, in contrast to a decrease of 4.9 percent. REAL RESIDENTIAL FIXED INVESTMENT INCREASED 23.4 percent, in contrast to a decrease of 23.3 percent.
Real exports of goods and services increased 14.7 percent in the third quarter, in contrast to a
decrease of 4.1 percent in the second. Real imports of goods and services increased 16.4 percent, in contrast to a decrease of 14.7 percent.”
Looking inside the data, the “big change” in private domestic investment is all residential fixed - up 23.4%. I don’t believe it. I’ve been scouring the homebuilder earnings releases and data, and I don’t see the numbers that support this. An improvement over the ditch-diving of the last many quarters, yes - but a 23.4% increase, a swing of fifty percent from Q2-Q3? Oh hell no. Where is it? It’s not in Home Depot’s or Lowe’s quarterly results, it’s not in the homebuilders, and I can’t find it in the suppliers (lumber companies, etc) either. This sort of move would result in monstrous top-line revenue increases reported by firms in this sector and that simply has not happened.
Nor do the export and import numbers look right. Port of Long Beach and LA anyone? Those numbers also don’t add up - swings of 20-25% in one quarter? Not reflected in container volumes and freight loadings. Yet it has to be - how do you get something in or out of here without it going through a port?
Government looks right, both federal and state/local. The “Obama will cut defense and war spending” folks have to be bashing themselves with a hammer - there’s no evidence for that in the data, now three quarters into his administration. If you’re anti-war and “bring the troops home”, you may want to re-think whether voting for Barry was a wise decision - he sure as hell hasn’t kept that promise. (Note that I didn’t think he would either but that lie sure played well in San Francisco, didn’t it?)
Forward the big problem is the deterioration in personal income. You can’t spend what you don’t have without credit creation, and that’s fallen off a cliff. The Fed’s credit reports continue to come in with huge contractions - this should not surprise, as demanding that banks lend to people who are seeing their income shrink is into the realm of pure idiocy.
The market likes the numbers although a lot of the move - perhaps all of it - is Bucky getting thrown under the bus once again.
You can’t expect the cheerleaders on CNBC to read beyond the headline numbers, and they (once again) did not disappoint in this regard. The first 20 minutes of “analysis” brought not one mention of the decease in personal income or disposable personal income, yet on a forward basis this is in fact the most important piece of information in the report.
You cannot have an economic recovery when on a q/o/q basis real disposable income is contracting at a 7.4% annual rate and worse, the spread between nominal and real income is widening, indicating that mandatory purchases such a food, energy and health care - are increasing.
(Credit K. Denninger)
From today’s Austin American Statesman:
Austin company part of $1.5 billion Chinese-backed Texas wind farm
LOL! Those are the green jobs being touted as a benefit of Cap & Tax.
Why aren’t we building these, damnit?!
My eyeball at these numbers is that the ROI is on the order of 50 years.
Chineese rotating equipment built to last 50 years?
HAHAHAHAHAHAHAAAHAHAHAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA!!!!!!
These snake charmers will get the taxpayers of Texas to build the transmission lines and also the backup generation plant.
“The project will cost $1.5 billion, cover 36,000 acres in West Texas”
What the hell?
Why waste 36,000 acres with some crap like that, they could build 300,000 houses on that land and ramp up demand. The houses would be snapped up immediately, what with this $8000.00 dollar tax credit.
Texas already has the largest wind generating system in the world.
We would have more, but environmentalists are blocking the building of transmission lines form the proposed expansion.
Texas already has the largest wind generating system in the world.
Thought it was going to be a joke about the legislature..
Texas already has the largest wind generating system in the world.
No joke, the TXns love their jalapenos and beans.
jalapenos and beans.
and beer.
Powerful wind combo.
ha ha ha, guys!
18.8 million Vacant Homes on the Wall, 18.8 million homes:
The US Census Bureau has released its Third Quarter report on Residential Vacancies and Homeownership. The number of vacant homes in Q3 has started increasing once again after posting moderate improvements over the prior two quarters, and is now at 18.8 million units, rising from 18.4 million in the prior year. With new home sales surprising to the downside, look for this number to continue increasing into the fourth quarter. Notable is that the rental vacancy rate stood at an all time high of 11.1%. As James Lockhart, former director of the FHFA which he singlehandedly managed to destroy said: “We are bumping along the bottom of the housing market. There is the potential for another swing down.” Don’t tell that to the GDP numbers.
(Credit ZeroHedge)
Holy Frijole.
Rental vacancies are absolutely skyrocketing. From 10.6 to 11.1 just this past quarter. 10.1 -> 11.1 in just two quarters.
Even homeowner vacancies went back up slightly to 2.6, after they had been dribbling down off the record 2.9 high.
Eddie, are you a realtor?
Eddie, are you a realtor?
Eddie are you kidding?
He’s just another unemployed realtard albeit an angry deluded one.
Push the button BJ.
Yes I am. And as I said before, my marketing strategy to sell houses is try and convince you all to buy a house. How’s it working so far? You all ready to sign up? You know the $8K credit is about to expire, better buy soon.
Seriously though I have nothing to do with real estate. I’ve said this a few times but the comprehension is a little slow here. I am renting, I am looking to buy. Sold near peak, made a lot of money doing what you were all saying to do (but few actually did), ie shorting the market, specifically financial.
I believe the worst is behind us, I am heavily invested in equities and think real estate is on the rebound. I also work with the evil banks, including the really evil ones in NYC. I dare make a good living and prefer to buy nice things like a BMW and stay in nice hotels when I travel. And you can’t rent anything for under $3K in Tampa that is livable. I stand by that statement.
I share the sentiment of everyone else here….. You’re full of $hit.
Eddie reminds me of two guys who used to post about how they were in stocks, I think their names were Brandon and Palisades. They used the same arrogant tone as Eddie. After last fall they stopped posting.
“Yes I am.”
Eddie’s Catch-22:
- If he really was a Realtor, then he would be telling the truth, pretty much ruling out the possibility that he is a Realtor.
- If he was lying, this would be a strong indication that he really is a Realtor.
My head is spinning!
Soon they will set up a maturity ward next to the oil & lube bays. There are plenty of folks that would be proud to say, my ma gived birth to me at wally world.
Wal-Mart starts selling caskets, urns online.
(AP)
MILWAUKEE — The world’s largest retailer wants to keep its customers even after they die.
Wal-Mart has started selling caskets on its website at prices that undercut many funeral homes, long the major seller of caskets.
The move follows a similar one by discount rival Costco, which also sells caskets on its site.
Wal-Mart (WMT), based in Bentonville, Ark., quietly put up about 15 caskets and dozens of urns on its website last week.
Prices range from $999 for models like “Dad Remembered” and “Mom Remembered” steel caskets to the mid-level $1,699 “Executive Privilege.” All are less than $2,000, except for the Sienna Bronze Casket, which sells for $3,199.
Caskets ship within 48 hours. Federal law requires funeral homes to accept third-party caskets.
The caskets come from Star Legacy Funeral Network, a company based in McHenry, Ill., that sells the same caskets for about the same price — some less — on its site, along with many others.
Costco’s been selling caskets for years now. Just check their website.
I just want to be put in a paper bag and tossed in the ocean for the sharks to deal with. But nooooo, that’s illegal. Well I guess we now know why. Mal-Wart needs to make a profit!
I have no idea how rules vary from state to state, but here you don’t need a casket if you are being creamated, just an urn, which are generally cheaper.
“creamated”. I think I’d like that - you could put me in a coffee urn with sugar and cream.
LOL Creamy then chocfullonuts!
House passes bill intended to avert agency closing
House funds government through Dec. 18, generously funds Interior, environmental programs ~ Thursday October 29, 2009
WASHINGTON (AP) — The House Thursday approved a stopgap spending measure to avoid a shutdown for 11 Cabinet-level departments whose budgets won’t be enacted by a midnight Saturday deadline.
The measure would give Congress until Dec. 18 to finish seven incomplete spending measures that were supposed to be wrapped up by Sept. 30. The bill passed by a 247-178 vote and now goes to the Senate, which must pass it this week to avoid a partial shutdown.
The legislation also extends highway programs and federal loan guarantees for larger mortgages.
The anti-shutdown measure was attached to a remarkably generous spending bill for the Interior Department and environmental programs, one that pumps billion of dollars into clean and safe drinking water projects.
The bill rewards Interior and the EPA and some smaller agencies with increases of $4.7 billion over 2009 levels, an increase of 17 percent. The biggest increases go to EPA grants to state and local governments for sewage treatment projects, wastewater treatment and clean drinking water projects.
There’s $5 billion in the measure for such clean water projects, including 333 so-called earmarks sought by lawmakers in both parties, such as $500,000 for Fremont, Ohio to deal with sewer overflows during heavy rains and $400,000 for Washburn, N.D., for improvements to its drinking water treatment plant.
What do you call poetic justice and irony?
Schadenfreude!
Mortgage Bankers Can’t Afford Their Own Home
cnbc.com//id/33497254
It’s not exactly a great time to put a large piece of commercial real estate on the market, like a big ol’ building in downtown Washington, DC, but apparently the Mortgage Bankers Association didn’t have a choice.
They moved into their $76 million building just over a year ago at 1331 L St. NW, but in a letter to members this morning, the board wrote the sale would be “in the best interest” of the association.
It adds that they will lease “a substantial portion of the building” so as to keep it as their headquarters through 2010.
And a bit more from CEO John Courson:
“Since the purchase in May 2008, the U.S. economy has suffered one of the most severe recessions in a century, and the residential and commercial real estate markets have materially deteriorated. These factors, coupled with a challenging leasing environment, led the MBA Board to conclude that continued ownership of 1331 L Street was economically imprudent, and over the long term would impair MBA’s ability to continue providing our members with MBA’s full range of services.”
By the way, commercial office building prices in DC are down 27 percent from their peak in 2008, that according to Real Estate Econometrics. The mortgage bankers want to make sure you know the association is current on all debt payments.
“It adds that they will lease “a substantial portion of the building” so as to keep it as their headquarters through 2010″.
To who? Have they got tenets lining up? LOL! Perhaps there is a shortage of commercial space, or their place is different & special.
And this TURD of a company is back with it’s grubby hand out wanting mo “free” money…
One of UK’s biggest mortgage lenders fined £10m for overcharging customers ~ 29th October 2009
One of Britain’s biggest mortgage lenders has been handed a record £10.5 million in fines after exploiting more than 46,000 desperate homeowners.
GMAC, part of giant American firm General Motors, was found guilty of overcharging struggling customers when they missed mortgage payments, paid off their loans or had their accounts passed on to solicitors.
It also failed to take in to consideration the budgets of borrowers with debts and of starting repossession proceedings when it was not the last resort. Many of the homeowners were left worse off as a result.
Record fines: GMAC, part of giant American firm General Motors, was found guilty of overcharging struggling customers
Record fines: GMAC, part of giant American firm General Motors, was found guilty of overcharging struggling customers
GMAC was slapped with a £2.8 million fine and ordered to pay back £7.7 million plus interest to customers by the City watchdog Financial Services Authority.
Margaret Cole, director of enforcement and financial crime for the FSA, said: ‘This case sets a precedent and illustrates our determination to deliver fast outcomes for consumers.
‘It is an excellent example of what the FSA’s more intrusive approach can achieve for consumers, and we hope it will deter other firms from not treating customers fairly.’
Some immigration is healthy for this country. The invasion we have suffered the last thirty years is not.
It is not so much that immigrants are ‘bad’ people. Some are, some not, but almost all come from countries where the rule of law, property rights, and individual freedom are compromised.
Mexico is now unspeakably corrupt. No one trusts authority and everyone is trying to survive and beat the system. Double that for Somalians, Nigerians, Pakistanis, etc. The come here, find trusting people, and are amazed at how easy it is to engage in profitable criminal activity at little risk.
Millions of people are coming to this country with no knowledge of our constitutional republic and the values of the last 200 years. I know, I know, most are just trying to escape their shithole of origin but this country is transforming into the same type shithole, just larger.
To be blunt, unbridled immigration, legal and otherwise, is flushing the United States down the toilet. There is one good thing about my advanced age…I won’t be around to see the complete collapse of this country.
Are you sure? You might just live to see it.
Some would say you are seeing it now.
Well Frank, the outcome is pretty simple: we’ll all look like Tiger woods in about 150 years, or someone will get angry enough to unleash a targeted genetic bioweapon.
Time had a barf piece one of the quotes I liked best
Welcome to Round 2 of Main Street vs. Wall Street. The divide is the worst I’ve seen in my 40 years of writing about finance. In a new TIME poll, 75% of the respondents say they believe Wall Street will revert to business as usual, 67% want the government to force pay cuts, and 59% want more government regulation.
67% want gov to force pay cuts but only 59% want more gov regulation. There are 8% in this survey who are very stupid.
Actually it’s much higher than 8%. The 41% of the people who don’t want more government regulation actually want the government to force pay cuts. Only 26% of the people who want more gov’t regulation support the pay cuts.
Good Afternoon HBB’ers!
Just some funky financial factoids offered to counteract the SSM (State Sponsored Media) Happy Days GDP release:
- Recession Is Not Over, Depression continues
- Quarterly GDP Growth as reported is Not Sustainable, with 92% of Growth in Nonrecurring Factors
- Annual GDP Down 2.3% (DOWN 5.7% per ShadowGovtStats) - http://www.shadowstats.com/alternate_data
- 4th-Quarter GDP Should Resume Quarter-to-Quarter Decline
- Durables Goods Orders at 1997 Level
- Help-Wanted Advertising at New 58-Year Low
Links for each/all?
Have I got a Link for you. badaboom bada bing.
I think you all will find this one veddy interesting.
www muckety dot com
Muckety maps relations and measures influence allowing you to see the news by visually showing the connections between people, companies and organizations.
Have fun.
Land of linkin’:
http://www.bea.gov/newsreleases/national/gdp/2009/pdf/gdp3q09_adv_fax.pdf
http://www.publicbroadcasting.net/wabe/news.newsmain/article/0/2/1571330/US/New.home.sales.drop..durable.goods.orders.up
Thx
Land o linkin.
lincoln logs
or
Fourscore and a few yrs ago.
Can someone point to Why the market went up, way up today?
“Can someone point to Why the market went up, way up today?”
Just a theory or two:
1. Short covering forced more short covering.
2. A 50 basis point drop in the dollar index brought Uncle Buck back in.
3. Momo hedge funds piled on.
4. Goldman came in long this morning.
5. Equity fund managers never want to left in the dust.
6. With the equivalent of a thousand garbage scows filled with confetti hundred dollar bills, the Fed, Goldman, PPT, and other mobsters have plenty of ammo to paint the tape for their sponsors in DC.
These are the days when politicians manage public expectations and related propaganda about the economy; not the economy itself. That’s in the crapper.
ThanksCobalt. The wags on msnbc were jabbering way to much to get a good sense of reality.
dont forget to click on the ads.
Whaddya think, Combo? Should I buy FEED at >5? I gotta make up for maternity leave!
*Sorta investment advice
Lol, don’t rely on me. I’m the guy who closed out all my trades yesterday, near the low.
After this 6 month-or-so stock price run up I managed to exit with a small loss.
A trader I am not. For some reason every few years I need to be reminded of this fact.
I’m back to fundamentals, where I belong.
Fannie Mae
Freddie Mac
Medicare
Social Security
Post Office
Cash for Clunkers
All wild successes examples of govt run plans. Only an insane person would think a govt run health care system would be anything other than a comple cluster.
As Einstein said…the definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over and expecting a different outcome.
Goldman Sachs
Lehamn Bros.
Merrill Lynch
WaMu
CITI
AIG
Bears and Stearns
Shall I continue?
Top that list. I dare you!
“…the definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over and expecting a different outcome.”
The sun rises …the sun sets…
2009-10-29 22:22:22
“What an interesting “time” for you post Hwy”…Master Yoda
500th!!!!!
Anderson forecast says double-digit appreciation will return to Orange County in 2010:
http://lansner.freedomblogging.com/2009/10/29/16-percent-gain-forecast/41779/
514th!!!
The FCC voted unanimously yesterday to move forward with the debate in an effort to formalize net neutrality guidelines. Senator John McCain followed up by introducing a bill that would prohibit the FCC from governing communications.
In the wake of FCC chairman Julius Genachowski’s initial announcement of his intent to pursue formal net neutrality rules, a group of GOP lawmakers already initiated a similar attempt. However, that amendment was retracted almost as quickly as it was filed.
McCain’s bill, the Internet Freedom Act, seeks to do the opposite of what its name implies by ensuring that broadband and wireless providers can discriminate and throttle certain traffic while giving preferential treatment to other traffic. Basically, those in power or those who pay more will have better access. Apparently we have different definitions of ‘freedom’.
Oddly, the bill also contains text stating that any regulations in effect on the day before the Internet Freedom Act is officially enacted are grandfathered in and exempt from the provisions of the Internet Freedom Act. The implication seems to be that if the FCC can formalize net neutrality rules before McCain can get the Internet Freedom Act signed into law, the net neutrality rules would still apply.
Net neutrality opponents claim that the free market can police itself and that any net neutrality restrictions will stifle innovation and competition. However, Comcast tried to throttle peer-to-peer networking traffic and only changed policy after the threat of FCC net neutrality rules. AT&T sought to block customers from using VoIP services from its wireless network, but changed policy out of fear of the net neutrality rules. The trend seems to be that these providers only do the ‘right thing’ when the net neutrality gun is pointing at their head.
I hope they don’t decide to slow Ben’s web site.
I guess we should just let AT and T and Comcast decide what we can look for on the internet.
From someone who has worked in that business - I agree with McCain.
Take Verizon FiOS for example. Super-high speed access - 100-200 Mbps Fiber-to-the-Home. I worked on that equipment.
If this law had existed back when they did the business plan for FiOS, it would have altered their business plan dramatically, by reducing their potential profits. They certainly would have scaled back or even killed plans to go forward with it - probably going with a cheaper and less innovative solution like AT&T’s U-Verse, which uses in-ground age-old copper instead of new fiber.
It’s not like they have a monopoly on internet access - they don’t. Comcast etc. serves most of the same areas with a completely different set of network equipment, and thus isn’t “stifled” by Verizon’s network usage rate plans. Plus there are other wireless carriers as well. Most areas have 3-4 different options for internet access, which would still be the case without “net neutrality”.
Update to my earlier post, if Dobbs house/wife shot at, then this shouldn’t happen to anyone, ever.
If it was another ‘jiffypopcorn airballoon” media event….hopefully just that, but if not. Glad they are safe.
However, ever wonder with anyone/everyone in the media-
*do they cry wolf to often? which lends itself to skepticism.
Following presumptive Fed logic, since there was no housing bubble, there was no housing bubble burst, ruling out possibility of the “worrying case of amnesia” that has the WSJ editors all flustered. Don’t worry, but rather buy tons of houses, cars and Christmas presents, and live the happy life!
* The Wall Street Journal
* HEARD ON THE STREET
* OCTOBER 30, 2009
America’s Grossly Distorted Product
By LIAM DENNING
If the Obama administration were managing a company, it might have hoped the latest gross-domestic-product numbers would be greeted with cries of “great quarter, guys!”
At least the stock-market obliged, rising on the back of better-than-expected GDP data Thursday morning. But then bulls have become used to looking to Washington for inspiration. Zero rates and stimulus programs boost economic data as well as nudge money toward riskier assets.
Fully 2.2 percentage points of the third quarter’s 3.5% growth figure related to vehicle purchases and residential construction, both juiced by government support. Federal spending added 0.6%.
If these GDP data were company earnings, they would be what analysts euphemistically call “low quality.” Investors buying into the market off the back of them are ignoring weekly unemployment-claims data that came in above 500,000 again on the same day.
The danger is that all these short-term fixes leave the economy dangerously addicted to taxpayer-funded steroids. The circularity in the housing market, whereby Washington provides tax breaks to first-time buyers, guarantees most of the mortgages written, and then buys most of those, beggars belief, and suggests a worrying case of amnesia following the bursting of the housing bubble.
…