November 15, 2009

The Next Thing We’re Going To See Will Be Bell-Bottoms

The Sun Times reports from Illinois. “Foreclosure is not a pretty word. And the process can be downright ugly. But some hope was available for the taking when the Mortgage Relief Project came to town. ‘Aurora is one of the hard-hit areas,’ said Brent Adams, secretary of the Illinois Department of Financial and Professional Regulation. ‘To come here today shows courage on your part. We’ll do everything we can to make things right,’ he told the group sitting before him.”

“Evelyn and Barry Walker said their mortgage is also becoming unmanageable. Evelyn, a home day care provider, and Barry, a restaurant manager, said they aren’t bringing in as much money lately and their house payment keeps going up. Evelyn’s brother, David Sanders, joined them. Sanders is in the same boat and was told he needs to leave his home by Dec. 22.”

“The Walkers, of Yorkville, said their experience dealing with two banks so far has been unpleasant. Their current mortgage holder is either unresponsive or says they don’t qualify for current programs that might help them. ‘There is always some criteria we didn’t meet,’ Barry Walker said. ‘If we don’t qualify, who does?’ he wondered.”

From WKYC. “The housing slump has hit Northeast Ohio harder then many places throughout the country. If you’re about to be foreclosed on, there are ways to ease the pain. If you’re looking for a deal, there are places to find it. Laura Fulton makes a living buying, rehabbing and flipping houses. ‘It’s a great time to buy right now. We have never seen these prices or these interest rates,’ Fulton said.”

“Sheriff sales are usually sight unseen. Fulton once got burned. ‘They sawed off the mantel of the fireplace. They tore off cabinet doors, trashed the yard and turfed it. Then left dogs in the house for a long time, unattended,’ Fulton said.”

“In a short sale, the seller can also benefit, so personal trainer Kathy Scharam discovered. Despite working two jobs, Kathy could not keep up with her house payments. She chose a short sale over foreclosure and was forgiven a good chunk of what she owed. ‘Their credit is damaged but not to the degree a sheriff’s sale would be,’ Schram said.”

“Kathy is starting over. She is feeling better about herself and her future. ‘Somebody is going to be very happy with this house, that it was left in good condition. The relief was not making the mortgage payment and wondering how to make ends meet,’ Schram said.”

The News Journal in Ohio. “When city officials explained plans to speed up demolition of blighted housing in Mansfield with $1.6 million in grant funds, few questions were asked. But there was a quiet buzz of frustration from several people as Thursday night’s meeting ended and they filed out of council chambers.”

“Police Chief Phil Messer said his department has worked closely with building and codes inspectors to ensure vacant houses are secured, then repaired or razed. If a house sits empty for two or three years, can’t be permanently secured and hasn’t been restored, ‘then at some point I think you have to let it go,’ he said.”

The Columbus Dispatch in Ohio. “Central Ohio home values appreciated nearly 2 percent in the past year, but not in the areas that residents might expect, a national report released this week indicates. Although home values rose in some out-of-the-way places such as Groveport, Hebron and Johnstown, they dropped in traditionally affluent communities such as Dublin, Upper Arlington and Worthington, according to Zillow.”

“The Federal Housing Finance Agency found that central Ohio home prices dropped 1.4 percent from the second quarter of last year to the second quarter of this year. (Third-quarter figures are not yet available.) Because of those figures, some central Ohio real-estate agents said they were surprised that Zillow found any price gains in the area.”

“‘I don’t know how they can say they’ve seen an increase because I haven’t seen it anywhere,’ said Jerry White, executive vice president of Coldwell Banker King Thompson. ‘I would not feel confident telling anyone that home prices are appreciating. I don’t think we’ve bottomed out yet.’”

“The market is very weak for expensive homes, which are especially abundant in Upper Arlington and Dublin. ‘We have years and years of supply in that million-and-above range,’ said Chris Pedon, who with a partner runs the Bexley Real Living HER office.”

“Ohio might be heading into a new round of foreclosures. Foreclosure filings in the state rose 6.5 percent from September to October, according to RealtyTrac. During the month, 11,646 foreclosure notices were filed in the state. But that figure includes a more ominous one: a big leap in lawsuits filed by lenders against homeowners, the first step in the foreclosure process. During October, 4,628 suits were filed against homeowners, 16 percent more than during September.”

“‘My overall take on this is that no matter what the monthly foreclosure filing is, we’re still not at the peak of this mess,’ said Paul Bellamy, director of the Cuyahoga County Foreclosure Prevention Program.”

“Bellamy noted that there’s been no decline in the first warning sign of foreclosure: the number of loans that are more than 90 days delinquent. ‘That 90-day bucket is really growing, and it has been since the middle of 2008,’ Bellamy said.”

The Green Bay Press Gazette in Wisconsin. “Green Bay-area homebuilder Scott Puyleart says the potential benefits of tax credits for first-time homebuyers and those looking to move on from their current house go beyond just the builder. ‘We’re going to see that second- and third-time homebuyer market take off,’ said Puyleart who is vice president of the Brown County Home Builders Association. ‘There are a lot of people that are in the position where they want to do something and this is going to help … them.’”

“He said there are only so many first-time homebuyers. ‘When you have five to 15 guys on a job site, that’s a paycheck and that’s groceries, that’s entertainment and that’s a car payment and it’s going to trickle down through the economy two or three times over,’ Pulyeart said.”

“Christine Shaefer, executive vice president of the Valley Home Builders Association in Appleton, said the realistic expectation is the credit will help stem the decline and then stabilize the number of new-home starts in 2010, with the hope of seeing a 5 percent increase.”

“‘Realistic is the key because housing starts were at a very unsustainable level in 2004 and 2005,’ she said.”

The Liberty Tribune. “Facing a continued wobbly housing market, local developers and real estate professionals are lobbying Congress to help prop up sales by extending and expanding a homebuyers tax credit. Jason Klindt, a spokesman for Congressman Sam Graves, who represents Northwest Missouri, including Clay and Platte counties, said by e-mail: ‘Sam is talking with realtors, builders and home buyers to determine if the current tax credit is working and to determine whether to extend or expand it.’”

“Craig Porter, a real estate developer from Kansas City North, said he is among those who had spoken to Graves about the matter. Porter said any hopes for an economic recovery were tied to success of the housing industry. ‘There’s never been an economic recovery that didn’t coincide with a robust housing market,’ Porter said. ‘The tax credit needs to be extended and expanded to include not only the first-time home buyers.’”

“Porter said builders in Lake Meadows, a subdivision he is developing in Smithville, had witnessed the success of the $8,000 tax credit for first-time buyers. ‘We’ve sold five out of eight houses we started,’ Porter said. ‘We’re going to start four more and I think we have buyers for two of them.’”

“Porter said the houses ranged in price from approximately $140,000 to $180,000, lower than they might be in a better market. ‘This is a great time to buy,’ Porter said. ‘Interest rates are low and the cost of building has gone down. People are getting good deals.’”

The DesMoines Register. “Experts say it will boost prices and will not benefit the economy. Congress’ decision 10 days ago to extend and expand the first-time homebuyers’ tax credit is one of the worst economic policy decisions since President Jimmy Carter decided to embargo U.S. grain sales to the Soviet Union, several specialists say. Carter’s 1980 embargo had absolutely no effect on the Soviet decision to invade Afghanistan, although it hurt a lot of Iowa farmers for a long time.”

“Extending and expanding the homebuyers’ tax credit now will help a handful of homebuyers, most of whom, experts say, would have bought without the credit, while prolonging the real estate downturn. ‘It’s a gimmick,’ said Iowa State University economist David Swenson. ‘It’s really not changing the demand for housing at a time when we have an excess of supply. It’s interfering with the need to get prices down to where people could afford them.’”

“Most economists agree that the extension and expansion will do two things: It will increase housing prices, and it will move future sales into the present, thereby extending the pain. Neither of those things benefit the long-term economy. The logic is similar to what put two of the big three automakers in bankruptcy. Remember zero percent financing and car loans that lasted longer than cars?”

“It didn’t make sense that the car companies could make money on those terms. And they didn’t.”

“Des Moines accountant Joe Kristan said, ‘A lot of people are just capturing that money by being able to raise their prices’ on homes they want to sell. The credit is ‘temporarily inflating home prices,’ he said.”

“Lower prices will do more to get rid of excess supply than anything the government can do, Swenson said. The credit is ‘artificially propping up prices,’ he said, and encouraging people to buy more house than they can afford.”

“That’s what got us into this mess.”

“The problem now, said Kristan, is that once the homebuyers’ tax credit has been extended, ‘there’s going to be pressure every time it expires to extend it, just like they did this time.’”

“‘We’re living in strange times,’ Kristan said. ‘It reminds me of the 1970s; there’s so much lunacy. The next thing we’re going to see will be bell-bottoms.’”




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89 Comments »

Comment by wmbz
2009-11-15 08:06:36

“Evelyn, a home day care provider, and Barry, a restaurant manager, said they aren’t bringing in as much money lately and their house payment keeps going up”.

You read this time and time again. The mortgage payment is rising, what did they expect? If you sign up for an ARM or anything other than a standard fixed rate mgt. that’s what happens, big surprise! Not.

Comment by Ben Jones
2009-11-15 08:22:55

Yeah, I know. We have people walking around in bell bottoms all over the place and they act like they don’t know it.

The other day I was talking to a retired guy who is losing his “second home.” He had refinanced and was super bitter about it. He and his wife had owned the place over 20 years and the bank had “boobey-trapped” him. But you know, what he really did was sell it to the lender at the top of the market. So why shouldn’t the bank get to at least sell it for a loss and collect what little they can?

This sob story way of looking at foreclosures is a big reason public policy is so misguided, IMO. And what is the tax credit doing? Subsidizing spec houses in Kansas!

Comment by Bill in Los Angeles
2009-11-15 11:26:44

I still see real estate cheerleaders on other message boards scoffing about the resets. They claim that since interest rates are not budging, the resets are not causing payments to go up. They don’t get it…yet!

Comment by oxide
2009-11-15 20:07:22

I hear ya. Just what part of “interest only” do they not understand?

For years we eyed the second hump in that Credit Suisse graph. Now it’s here.

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Comment by In Montana
2009-11-15 13:08:29

This sob story way of looking at ________[fill in blank] is a big reason public policy is so misguided, IMO.

FIFY

Comment by alpha-sloth
2009-11-15 17:55:51

I think we mostly all agree on that. The question is: Who do the sob stories cover up for? (Pardon my dangling participle.)

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Comment by ahansen
2009-11-16 01:43:13

In this fast-paced, anything-goes society, your participles may now dangle freely. If you want them to.

 
 
 
Comment by X-GSfixr
2009-11-15 22:28:06

Uhhhhhh…….these “spec houses” are actually in Missouri (the Kansas City Metro is about evenly split by the KS-MO border).

Confusing Kansas and Missouri is sorta like saying Ann Arbor is in Ohio.

Comment by Ben Jones
2009-11-16 06:45:29

‘Confusing Kansas and Missouri’

I bet if you were teleported to either place you couldn’t tell which one you were in.

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Comment by Cowtown
2009-11-16 15:27:52

I’ll take that bet.

 
 
 
 
Comment by Diogenes (Tampa, Florida)
2009-11-15 10:43:15

I am always struck by the way the “press” covers these stories. It is always a sob story about borrowers being “unable to pay”. Cry me a river. They signed onto a mortgage with specific terms and conditions.
It is the borrowers responsibility to make sure they can come up with the payments, by like, having a “savings fund” for lean times.

All these people living on the edge forced prices up and made the rest of us slaves to high housing prices and asset inflation. They should be made to pay every dime they have or VACATE the PREMISES and let the lender sell to the highest bidder.

I have absolutely NO sympathy for these folks. None. I am really tired of all the sad stories about how the “didn’t know”, the bank cheated them, were taken advantage of, blah, blah, blah………..

if i see another sob tale, my head is going to explode………………

Comment by In Montana
2009-11-15 13:10:10

….and then they lost their job at the bead store…then had a medical emergency…and moved in and took care of their grandmother who was dying…and then..

Comment by Sammy Schadenfreude
2009-11-15 17:48:32

There’s usually a divorce in there somewhere, too. Obviously there’s some circumstances where it becomes impossible or unwise to stay in a marriage, but I wonder how many of these people just threw in the towel when the going got tough - or were so insufferable that their spouse just couldn’t take it anymore.

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Comment by In Montana
2009-11-15 19:03:49

yeah or worse, they bought the house with their *fiance* and then broke up..

 
Comment by oxide
2009-11-15 20:11:08

Marriages split more over money than anything else. I suspect that’s exactly what happened with that lady in New Mexico from yesterday. You know, she of the $27K income in the $218K house. She divorced in July and the ex moved right back in to help feed the alligator. I guess they didn’t hate each other as much as they thought?

 
 
Comment by pismoclam
2009-11-15 20:48:39

Then the wife used the mtg money for a tummy tuck, eyes and a boob job.

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Comment by DD
2009-11-15 14:35:55

.

if i see another sob tale, my head is going to explode………………

Watch out everyone.. diogenes is going to blow

run for cover cause the stories keep on coming.. sniffle sniffle!

 
Comment by Bill in Los Angeles
2009-11-15 16:35:42

I am always struck by the way the “press” covers these stories. It is always a sob story about borrowers being “unable to pay”. Cry me a river. They signed onto a mortgage with specific terms and conditions.

Apparantly, since the rag called “The US Constitution” is flagrantly disobeyed by past and current members of Congress as to what can and cannot be legislated, why should the homebuyer have to consider his signature on a rag called a “mortgage agreement” to be binding either?

Sometime ago, several decades perhaps, we stopped being a society run by “Rule of Law.”

Comment by alpha-sloth
2009-11-15 17:59:06

When were we run by the ‘rule of law’ in your opinion? How did this period begin, and how did it end?

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Comment by Bill in Los Angeles
2009-11-15 18:54:05

I would say if it was not for the practice of slavery, the Rule of Law was applied for the first 150 years of this Republic.

My hero of the past, however, is Lysander Spooner, a jurist and abolitionist:
http://praxeology.net/LS-NT-6.htm

 
Comment by alpha-sloth
2009-11-15 19:28:59

Lysander’s a nutter. Have you read your link?

You think the rule of law was in effect for the first 150 years of this republic? Wow. I guess we disagree on ‘rule of law’. Lynchings (of blacks and whites, for all sorts of ‘offenses’) were commonplace, pretty much all over the nation. And J. P. Morgan and the like were subject to the rule of law? (*giggle*)

 
Comment by DD
2009-11-15 19:50:27

Lynchings (of blacks and whites, for all sorts of ‘offenses’) were commonplace

Including the drowning of ‘witches’, based on little girls tattlings.

What I do think is that during the WW2 there seemed to be alot of pulling together for the US, and now, it is all split up, with no one anywhere willing to do something for the entire citizenry. Universal single payer health ins comes to mind.

Just got a proganda letter from HR. Something hidden in the wording about the upcoming competition to our corp administered health ins. Hmmm.

 
Comment by oxide
2009-11-15 20:15:02

no one anywhere willing to do something for the entire citizenry.

Who can afford to? It used to be you gave an inch and somebody gave back. Now, you give an inch and they take a mile, every time, usually by lying cheating or stealing, and then buying Congresspeople, who oblige by making cheating legal.

 
Comment by ahansen
2009-11-16 01:46:21

The people here on this blog are doing something for the entire citizenry. Someday, they’ll thank us for our incessant harping.

 
 
 
Comment by CA renter
2009-11-15 17:22:07

All these people living on the edge forced prices up and made the rest of us slaves to high housing prices and asset inflation. They should be made to pay every dime they have or VACATE the PREMISES and let the lender sell to the highest bidder.

I have absolutely NO sympathy for these folks. None. I am really tired of all the sad stories about how the “didn’t know”, the bank cheated them, were taken advantage of, blah, blah, blah………..
———————–

Couldn’t have said it any better myself.

Well said, Diogenes!

Comment by Bill in Los Angeles
2009-11-15 17:35:36

I sit across from a FB. A guy in his 30s who bought a house in Long Beach at the peak. I could rub his face in the dirt and laugh at him for getting the RE bug, but I don’t. He’s not an arrogant guy. Has a wife and two young kids. From bits and pieces of what he tells me, he regrets buying.

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Comment by Sammy Schadenfreude
2009-11-15 17:50:58

Rubbing people’s mistakes in their face is bad form. The decent ones will learn from their mistakes. The stupid ones will continue to make poor choices regardless.

 
Comment by az_lender
2009-11-15 19:31:45

Just learned that my cousin Sherry, oft mentioned in my HBB posts, is once AGAIN facing the problem of her son’s latest job loss (they need his paycheck to feed the alligator). She said she’d like to be able to count on my help if needed in an emergency. In the past I’ve given her a few hundred dollars a year, which is not much, but it’s an annoyance. This time I said, “You should be trying hard to sell the house.” Not that I haven’t said it before.

They could also try renting out a room or two, but it’s hard to find a reliable tenant in Maine in the wintertime.

 
Comment by aNYCdj
2009-11-16 22:45:04

AZ how much will she lose if she sells?

 
Comment by Dr. Kenneth Noisewater
2009-11-18 15:37:11

IMO you should only bother rubbing it in the face of folks who were crowing back in the day.

Plenty of them, so it’s not a huge sacrifice!

 
 
 
 
Comment by NYchk
2009-11-15 11:46:15

“We’re living in strange times,’ Kristan said. ‘It reminds me of the 1970s…”

I hear this comment more and more often, about the market and economy.

What happened in 70s? Didn’t housing prices went up very fast due to inflation?

Comment by Bill in Los Angeles
2009-11-15 16:39:25

interest rates were very high. You were able to deduct credit card interest owed in your taxes all the way to the mid-1980s, but then there were no IRAs or 401ks.

I wore bell bottoms until 1985 and had long hair. EeeeeeeeYAAAAAA! The last day was when I was walking through a grocery store parking lot and a kid in a car was telling me “hey man, peace! Hey man, peace!”

Comment by alpha-sloth
2009-11-15 18:08:56

Bell bottoms until 1985? Wow! That’s pretty square. Were they custom-made, tuff-skins, or bought en masse as an inflation hedge? Or were you haunting the salvation army stores, hippie BiLA?

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Comment by DD
2009-11-15 19:56:12

Mid 80s. WOW, did you not see magazines or tv where you were? Other people?
I think we should all post the most embarrasing design/hair period in our lives and guess who it is!

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Comment by alpha-sloth
2009-11-15 20:40:44

‘I think we should all post the most embarrasing design/hair period in our lives and guess who it is!’

That could be hilarious. Hint- I’ll look like someone from Duran Duran.

 
Comment by Mot
2009-11-15 23:24:26

I’ll send in pictures of my mullet.

 
Comment by Bill in Los Angeles
2009-11-16 14:39:31

I lived in a small town. So…yeah. But see, Miller’s Outpost kept selling the bells so I thought that meant they were in fashion.

I had bad long hair - as a swimmer back then. Stuck out in weird places. I actually have pictures of me with that scarecrow hair somewhere!

 
 
 
 
 
Comment by texasdiver
2009-11-15 08:26:56

Why is anyone’s ARM going up this year? If their rates are going up they can’t have a normal ARM as the indexes are all low. More likely some sort of teaser rate scheme that is now reverting to normal rates.

In any event, I’ve never seen an ARM document that did a reasonable job of disclosing future payments. I know mine definitely did not. On our last house my wife and I had an ARM that had the first 5 years fixed at 5% and there were no closing costs or points. We went with it because my wife was in medical residency and we knew we only planned to live there 3-4 years. As it turned out we kept the place for just over 5 years but our ARM actually adjusted down just before we sold in spring 2008.

It would be ridiculously easy for banks to provide a one-page disclosure page to show how future rates could affect payments. Just a simple table that shows the following three columns. The index upon which the rate is based. The resulting rate, and the resulting payment…up to the maximum amount allowed in the note.

INDEX RATE PAYMENT

The fact that banks don’t do this suggests that the government should require it.

Comment by Reuven
2009-11-15 09:16:46

I don’t sign a contract for a $10,000 deal without my lawyer reading it. I certainly wouldn’t sign a contract for a $500,000 +/- house deal without my lawyer reading it and explaining it to me.

Comment by texasdiver
2009-11-15 09:35:49

Yes, by all means get a lawyer.

My point is that you shouldn’t NEED a lawyer to explain it to you. Most of this stuff is very basic. ARM formulas are generally not complicated. The banks deliberately make it complicated with their blizzard of nonsense paperwork.

A simple rate table showing how high the payments can go at various interest rates with a place for the buyers to initial is something that should be required. So we don’t have to hear anymore of this nonsense about not knowing that payments could get so high.

I expect banks don’t do it because they know it will give people pause.

Comment by VinnieTheFish
2009-11-15 10:21:43

What’s the point of a bank clearly outlining the payment schedule for an ARM when people will lie to themselves by saying we’ll live in this house for X years and move before it becomes unaffordable. Hopefully in X years the house will increase in value by Y% making us real estate geniuses & repeat as necessary. Isn’t that what you thought going into the purchase with an ARM?

Until we start to buy homes with the intention of staying in this priory for 10-20 years at a time we’ll never escape this vicious cycle of bust & boom. A house should be a home, not a leveraged gamble.

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Comment by VinnieTheFish
2009-11-15 10:24:20

“priory” should read “property”. Sometimes I really dislike the spell check on the iPhone.

 
Comment by oxide
2009-11-15 20:19:50

I’ll stay in a house for 10 years in one spot as soon as I find a job that lasts 10 years in one spot. My record is 7, and that only after massive pay cuts to stretch the budget.

 
 
Comment by CA renter
2009-11-15 17:26:37

My point is that you shouldn’t NEED a lawyer to explain it to you. Most of this stuff is very basic. ARM formulas are generally not complicated. The banks deliberately make it complicated with their blizzard of nonsense paperwork.
———————–

Agree 100% with what you’ve written, texasdiver.

I’ve often complained about the massive amount of paperwork — often redundant in nature — that we are required to sign in a RE transaction.

There should be a maximum of three pages, right in front, that highlight the most important facts **for the borrower.** All loans should clearly state the MAXIMUM payment based on max lifetime cap, including max deferred amortization in the case of neg-am loans.

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Comment by DebtinNation
2009-11-16 14:36:39

Texas Diver, I agree with you. Although we are obsessed with making everything in this country “idiot-proof”, a commitment as big as an adjustable-rate mortgage could use a little ’splaining for the common-folk. Of course, it would kill the mortgage business, so it probably ain’t gonna happen.

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Comment by az_lender
2009-11-15 09:17:21

Many (most?) are based on LIBOR, which is low and falling. I agree with you that a rising mtg payment is connected with some negative-amortization or no-interest scheme that eventually ends.

 
Comment by aNYCdj
2009-11-16 22:44:00

Tex and we wouldn’t have had the housing boom….reading is NOT what Americans are good at anymore….

How many FB quotes over the years people said my ARM went up 2% and I thought that meant my mortgage went up 2% too….

 
 
Comment by mikey
2009-11-15 08:30:29

“The Green Bay Press Gazette in Wisconsin. “Green Bay-area homebuilder Scott Puyleart says the potential benefits of tax credits for first-time homebuyers and those looking to move on from their current house go beyond just the builder”

Yeah…right… and here’s another Wisconsin headline that should spin the marbles in your Spacecadet head.

Maritime ordered to improve, consider sale
By Paul Gores of the Journal Sentinel

Posted: Nov. 13, 2009

“Maritime Savings Bank has been ordered by a regulator to take steps to improve its financial condition and to quickly develop a contingency plan for selling itself to another bank.

In a cease-and-desist order that accuses the West Allis-based bank of “unsafe or unsound practices,” the Office of Thrift Supervision said Maritime was operating with, among other problems, inadequate capital, an excessive level of troubled loans and a board of directors that “failed to exercise adequate supervision” and direction for the bank’s management.”

The largest Wisconsin banks as well as the states economy ARE in serious trouble and CRE plus the remaining Suicide Loans haven’t even kicked in big time yet.

It’s not just little Maritime Bank STUCK with bad loans from Madison, Milwaukee and Greenbay to Arizona and Florida. They all got greedy. The biggies like M&I bank, Associated Bank, Anchor Bank and many others better have a well developed “Continency Plans.” or the entire State of Wisconsin’s financial activities will “cease-and-desist” pretty soon.

“Beam me up Scotty”…wharever you’re smoking, I want some !
;)

http://tinyurl.com/ygnk3lo

Comment by DebtinNation
2009-11-16 14:38:58

The maritime-related jokes abound, so I’ll refrain.

 
 
Comment by wmbz
2009-11-15 08:38:28

“‘We’re living in strange times,’ Kristan said. ‘It reminds me of the 1970s; there’s so much lunacy. The next thing we’re going to see will be bell-bottoms.’”

This fellow is correct, however we have lunacy on steroids now. There is no telling how many more crackpot policies will pour out of D.C. to ’save’ us.

Comment by az_lender
2009-11-15 09:23:36

Let’s give special notice to David Elbert of the Des Moines Register, who wrote the article pointing out most of the things that are wrong with the tax-credit extension. I don’t know if his name appeared in our previous lists of common-sense journalists, but if so, it deserves another mention here.

Comment by CA renter
2009-11-15 17:28:09

Agree.

 
 
 
Comment by Carlos4
2009-11-15 11:24:20

Things here in Ohio are doubly worse than they were when the pols lived here begging for our vote 20 months ago; it should be an interesting election year in a few months, if things hold together that long.

Comment by Bill in Los Angeles
2009-11-15 11:34:08

Unemployment is getting higher and higher, but the growth in unemployment is slowing. So in a year from now I expect the official U.S. unemployment rate to be in the 11% to 12% range despite more stimuli. And then higher taxes are promised around that time.

You can plug that into your political formula and make your own prediction of whether the American voter will choose to keep the same Congress or opt for gridlock of some form.

If we get gridlock, we’ll get a slow recovery four years later. If no gridlock, the economy will worsen, growth will shrink, and recovery will be a decade later.

 
Comment by Zachary
2009-11-15 12:06:06

I guess housing prices are appreciating in central Ohio. It sounds fishy to me.

I think I’ll move to Ohio and start flipping homes.

Comment by az_lender
2009-11-15 19:26:52

Zillow is a perma-bull website. Bull in several senses of the word.

 
 
 
Comment by Professor Bear
2009-11-15 11:43:12

112 years ago, a US President and his Attorney General had an answer to the problem of too-big-to-fail railroads. They foreclosed. Have we forgotten the lessons of history? It is time to wall off the coffers of the US Treasury from Megabank, Inc and for the US government to foreclose on the collateral which backs up unrepayable toxic debt. The residential real estate which is the underlying collateral should be rested from banks which cannot make good on their debts and sold at auction to end users. Too-big-to-fail problem solved :-)

CORRESPONDENCE ON FORECLOSURE; The President’s Instructions to Attorney General Harmon.

January 26, 1897, Wednesday

Page 7, 549 words

WASHINGTON, Jan. 25. — In response to a resolution, the Attorney General to-day stated to the Senate that an agreement had been made with the Reorganization Committee of the Union Pacific Railway Company respecting the foreclosure of the Government lien on the property of that company. He also said he had designated the United States Trust Company of New York as the depository, and that $4,500,000 had been deposited under the agreement.

Comment by Professor Bear
2009-11-15 13:02:43

“…residential real estate…”

Forgot to mention commercial real estate = next too-big-to-fail crisis.

Comment by DebtinNation
2009-11-16 14:41:12

I’d like to see the Fed keep all the plates up in the air next year when the SHTF.

 
 
 
Comment by Professor Bear
2009-11-15 11:52:14

Here is a reference to a choice article from the archives of real estate history. Why can’t the Sherman Antitrust Act be used to shut down the NAR today? Have their lobbyists so successfully bought the Congress at this point that the rule of law is no longer enforceable?
How can we field a president like Harry Truman who was willing to do what it took to get the job done?

BTW, Chicago (aka The Messiah™’s and Hillbilly’s home town) is still the location of the NAR headquarters.

THE REAL ESTATE INDICTMENT
Chicago Daily Tribune (1872-1963) - Chicago, Ill.
Date: Aug 29, 1947
Abstract (Document Summary)

The National Association of Real Estate Boards and the Washington Real Estate board have been indicted by a federal grand jury on charges of violating the anti-trust laws. The government is also bringing civil suits against these associations. The proceedings follow by a few weeks Mr. Truman’s denunciation of what he called the real estate lobby.

Comment by CA renter
2009-11-15 23:09:54

Nice find, PB.

The DOJ was trying to go after the NAR for their “black-balling” the discount realtors, but it looks like things are even worse now. There is all sorts of inventory out there that is not listed on all MLS sites.

 
 
Comment by Zachary
2009-11-15 11:55:45

I have no connection to Ohio other than watching Reverend Ernest Angley on TV.

In 2004, Ohio’s economy was in bad shape. John Kerry, according to the “official” presidential election results, came up short and that’s where the election was lost.

In 2004, Ohio’s manufacturing base was on a steep downhill trajectory. It just seems improbable to me how housing prices could be appreciating last year in central Ohio. One report says this. And another report says that. Obviously, someone is fibbing.

I would assume the guys and girls who counted Ohio’s presidential votes in 2004 are figuring home prices today. That must be it. The books must be cooked. I trust these big boys and girls have a decent education and can count.

If some people can’t get the housing figures correct, I’m sure there’s a lot of unemployed folks who would be willing to take over the job.

 
Comment by Professor Bear
2009-11-15 13:04:37

The End of ‘Too Big to Fail’

Rep. Paul Kanjorski – Fri Nov 13, 4:30 pm ET

“Too big to fail” must die. I am preparing legislation to empower federal regulators to rein in and dismantle financial firms that are so large, inter-connected, or risky that their collapse would put at risk the entire American economic system, even if those firms currently appear to be well-capitalized and healthy. Never again should American taxpayers have to bail out high-flying financiers when their risky bets go sour.

The economic meltdown we narrowly averted last year rightfully convinced the American people that we need to re-examine the fundamental structure of our financial system. Wall Street financiers, however, seem to think that — now that they are basically stable thanks to American tax dollars that kept them afloat during the worst of the crisis — they can just go back to business as usual. I have news for Wall Street: The world shifted, and it will never return to the way it was before mid-September, 2008.

Comment by DD
2009-11-15 14:41:26

YEA, Kanjorski gets my vote and support.

Somehow, I think he is the lone voice.

Comment by oxide
2009-11-15 20:30:57

He’s not alone. Bernie Sanders, Bawny Fwank, and one Republican Senator (forgot who) are all publicly on board with their own versions of breaking up the banks. They want to feather while the tar is hot.

[^ how's that for mixing a metaphor?]

I think the last straw was when banks took the money and, instead of lending it, they hoarded it or speculated with it or handed it out as bonuses. I am also positive that the banks — at the same time as bloviating “Don’t tell me how to run my business” — felt confident in acting recklessly, secretly counting on Fannie and Freddie and to rescue them. Such arrogance does not sit well with Congress, even the ones who are bought.

Comment by DebtinNation
2009-11-16 14:45:26

“They want to feather while the tar is hot.”

Pure genius. An oxide original?

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Comment by Zachary
2009-11-15 15:58:22

I support the Democratic Party, but I think Paul K. needs to move on.

He’s 72-years-old, DOB 1937, and he’s been a Congressman for 24-years. In a way, he’s milking the system like Wall Street. He’s fixed for life. He’s been fixed for life almost from the day he was elected to office. He’ll have a huge pension and marvelous health care.

Mr. K, just hand over the reigns of power to a younger UNEMPLOYED person. You’ve got your pot of gold; let someone else get their pot of gold.

When I was reading Paul K’s statement, I was thinking of Paul Kangas, too. Similar name. Same age.

I’ve been watching Paul K. for years on the PBS daily business program. He’s 72-years-old and his DOB is 1937, too. He now looks much old than 72. He must have some health problems as he has not aged well at all.

This guy has never been Mr. Charisma. But whatever charisma he remotely had, is completely gone now. It is sad he’s in poor health, older, and that he’s is so dull. But he needs to move on. Financially, he should be fixed for life.

There’s so many younger folks who need a job and have far better presentation skills than Mr. Kangas.

Being older is not a bad thing. But when you’re older, and you’re job performance is bad, that’s quite another thing.

Younger folks are suffering a lot in this severe recession. Give them a chance. Our nation has no future when rich, old, guys won’t step down.

Will these two Paul K’s, both born in 1937, hang it up? Probably not! Power and influence are intoxicating.

Comment by DD
2009-11-15 20:00:47

Well, that goes to a pet peeve and desire of mine, TERM LIMITS.

Constitutionally our forefathers didn’t set up this republic democracy for incessant permanent fixtures on the congress/senate, men to forever avoid their own constituents.

Comment by Zachary
2009-11-16 07:38:10

I support term limits, too. I totally agree with you.

I don’t think our forefathers envisioned a political system that is now so broken. You’re right!

Politics is seemingly a shady business, so there’s got to be limits as to how long they can hold office. My mom used to have a friend, and her brother was in politics at the state level. She told my mom quite a bit about the unethical politicians. She saw all the perks her brother got. And he got a lot of perks.

General Motors had term limits. That provision was no doubt a factor in their downfall. Billy Mitchell, who was pretty much a car styling genius, was forced to retire at the age of 65. Anyway, Mitchell was a huge asset to General Motors for at least 20-years. General Motors car styling hit the skids after Mitchell.

Traditionally, many affluent older folks continue to work well into their 70s, 80s, and even 90s. That’s great when the unemployment rate is fairly low. But that’s not the case today. We’re facing the worst economic climate since the 1930s.

Young people have made so many sacrifices for this country in Iraq and Afghanistan. And yet too many veterans, who do make it back home not always in one piece, need jobs. In fact, most young folks need jobs today.

Wealthy Congressman don’t want to make sacrificies. They don’t want to hand over their job when they’re way past their prime. They seemingly quit their jobs only when there’s a sex scandal or they’ve committed a crime.

In the business world, I do think many of the old, rich, and powerful should hang it up. If they’re not willing to do that, invest their millions in businesses that will add jobs to this economy.

Real Estate, for many years to come, has no future. But too many of the rich and powerful are still enticing people to buy homes. It’s crazy. Real Estate was once a big cog in the wheel but those days are over.

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Comment by DebtinNation
2009-11-16 14:48:30

“Real Estate was once a big cog in the wheel but those days are over.”

Don’t bet on that. Just because the little people may not be making any money right now (and a lot of the big shots are losing their arses as well), real estate will always be a big part of the economy and store of wealth for the rich and powerful.

 
Comment by Zachary
2009-11-16 21:23:18

It’s certainly over for a long time. I would guess for several decades, if not longer than that. Nothing stays the same forever.

College graduates are facing hardship for decades. I’ve read articles where it will take them decades to recover from $15,000 jobs.

Volkswagen, in the late ’60s and early ’70s, thought they were invincibile.

Likewise, Mercedes and BMW didn’t spend a lot of time worrying about luxury Japanese cars entering the market.

General Motors? Possibly wiped off the map. Unreal!

Harvard University is in deep trouble. Again, it’s unreal. Many college and university endowments are underwater.

 
Comment by aNYCdj
2009-11-16 23:26:11

Zach
Young people have made NO sacrifices for this country…Its a volunteer military…you are not subject to a draft against your will…

#2 you are wrong again, the only thing that will get better quality people in government is to have public funded elections where everybody gets the same dollars……yes Ron Paul and Ralph Nader would get the same as Bush and OHbahma, then let the best person win

And same with debates all parties even the communist party in the 1st debates then winnow it down to the top 7 the top 3to5 if they get say 5% of the votes

and never less then 3 choices for any public office

———————-
Young people have made so many sacrifices for this country in Iraq and Afghanistan.

Politics is seemingly a shady business, so there’s got to be limits as to how long they can hold office.

 
Comment by Zachary
2009-11-17 07:49:25

I don’t understand your logic concerning sacrifices.

Did our soldiers volunteer for three or four tours of duty in Iraq? A military draft should have been reinstated, because the number of soldiers required for the job in Iraq was insufficient.

But a draft would be politically incorrect. Any politician who supports a draft is dead meat.

So our great military industrial complex TRIES TO GET BLOOD OUT OF TURNIP by assigning three or four tours of duty to our soliders who are, according to you, making NO SACRIFICES.

Our political system is all about money. Dollars talk and big donors want something in return.

Why do we need so many people in debates when Katie Couric can narrow the field down by asking the question,”What magazines do you read.”? If a candidate can’t answer that question, they don’t belong in a debate.

 
 
Comment by potential buyer
2009-11-16 11:34:33

That should apply to the Supreme court too. Doddering old farts sitting there passing laws that affect every citizen. Luckily its really their younger clerks who come up with the opinions.

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Comment by Zachary
2009-11-16 21:30:13

It’s unreal. A job for life! Crazy!

The young clerks have to remind them to take their Metamucil. And the 10 medications they take.

That’s 10 medications per hour, not per day.

 
Comment by aNYCdj
2009-11-16 23:30:35

Zach

If I ever get to the point of having to pay someone $8 to wipe my butt, its time for Dr Kevorkian and on to the next life.

——————–
The young clerks have to remind them to take their Metamucil

 
Comment by Zachary
2009-11-17 08:22:57

I don’t think the new justice, Sonia Sotomayor, can afford the $8 tab. I think she’s kind of broke ain’t she?

Anyway, Dr. Kevorkian is much too busy to handle your wishes since he’s crafting the health care legislation. I’ve heard it’s dead on arrival.

 
 
 
Comment by jbw
2009-11-16 23:34:57

Paul Kangas did announce his plans to step down as a regular anchor earlier this year, and the other staff have been taking on some of his responsibilities to smooth the transition.

Comment by Zachary
2009-11-17 03:35:20

Thanks for the information. I wasn’t aware he was leaving.

I must confess I’ve never watched the show from start to finish. Only if I’m interested in a certain topic. Like flipping homes and retiring at 30.

Let’s hope other affluent, older, folks follow Mr. K’s departure. Older folks, who don’t have to work, should let some of the unemployed have a stab at employment.

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Comment by Professor Bear
2009-11-15 16:16:44

Where was this argument in Fall 2008 when it would have been immediately applied to JP Morgan and other Megabanks at the time when the TARP rescue was used instead?

BTW, I don’t believe ‘too big to fail’ should be excised from our vocabularies until the implicit too-big-to-fail bailout insurance program is convincingly ended. How that could happen without breaking up too-big-to-fail firms, the threat of whose collapse hangs over the global financial economy like the Sword of Damocles, is something I am eager to hear from Mr Dimon or anyone else who believes this can be done.

After the events of the Fall of 2008, I am highly skeptical.

No more ‘Too big to fail’
By Jamie Dimon

Special To The Washington Post
Updated: 11/13/2009 05:54:40 PM MST

Our company, J.P. Morgan Chase, employs more than 220,000 people, serves well over 100 million customers, lends hundreds of millions of dollars each day and has operations in nearly 100 countries. And if some unforeseen circumstance should put this firm at risk of collapse, I believe we should be allowed to fail. As Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner recently put it, “No financial system can operate efficiently if financial institutions and investors assume that government will protect them from the consequences of failure.” The term “too big to fail” must be excised from our vocabulary.

Comment by Sammy Schadenfreude
2009-11-15 18:00:00

http://www.businessweek.com/magazine/content/09_20/b4131069034013.htm

J.P. Morgan Chase is sitting on $87 TRILLION worth of derivatives, with $8.4 TRILLION in credit derivatives alone. Show of hands: Who thinks this is going to end very, very badly for all concerned?

 
Comment by snake charmer
2009-11-15 20:38:48

Is it just me, or are the masters of the universe on quite the public relations tour lately? First Lloyd Blankfein suggesting to an interviewer that his firm does God’s work, and now this. Shut up Jaime Dimon. How about “my company, JP Morgan Chase, has a vested interest in Americans paying more than necessary for housing for as long as they and their children live.”

I can’t wait until these entities start speculating in food.

 
 
 
Comment by snake charmer
2009-11-15 14:23:27

If anyone from the University of Central Florida reads here, I’ve got a great idea. Fire Sean Snaith and replace him with Iowa State economist David Swenson.

Comment by pismoclam
2009-11-15 21:01:36

You can’t fire someone with a name of Sean Snaith !

 
 
Comment by Marefynn, NY, NY
2009-11-15 15:13:53

Trashed houses. That’s nuthin’ in our grandparent’s time the farmers showed up at the foreclosures with shotguns and pitchforks.

Ahh, the good old days…

 
Comment by Professor Bear
2009-11-15 23:57:25

How come I knew all along that the home buyer tax credit would be renewed ?

Home building

After plunging by 80% over the past three years, construction of new homes bottomed in the spring and has increased by 23% since then, in part because the government is paying first-time buyers as much as $8,000 to buy a home.

Congress has extended the home-buyer tax credit past its Nov. 30 expiration (and expanded it to repeat buyers), but buyers and builders didn’t know that would happen in October.

Despite the expected expiration of the program, housing starts probably were flat in October at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 590,000, according to MarketWatch’s survey. The October starts figures will be released Wednesday at 8:30 a.m. Eastern.

Starts have been nearly unchanged at about 590,000 for four straight months, but that apparently stability masks diverging trends for single-family homes and multifamily units.

Single-family housing starts have risen in six of the past seven months, gaining 40% since February. By contrast, starts of condos, duplexes and apartment buildings have declined in five of the past seven months, dropping about 60% from February’s peak.

“Builders are now facing lean inventories - the lowest since 1982 - which, combined with the recent improvement in sales, should spur new construction,” wrote Michelle Meyer, an economist for Barclays Capital.

The level of starts is still near historic lows and is about 60% below the “natural” rate of 1.5 million per year (based on population growth and obsolescence of the housing stock).

Rex Nutting is Washington bureau chief of MarketWatch.

Comment by jbw
2009-11-16 23:49:57

Bah, they don’t need to do anything in the wake of the renewal - just continue the markup on every home to offset the credit. If it had not been renewed, then they would have had to lower prices.

It’s that evil cyborg on the NAR TV ads that keeps saying “re-allTOR” that ensured the renewal of the credit by assimilating key members of Congress. “Remember hu-MAN, buying a home is the best investment you can make in your future. Trust your re-allTOR.”

 
 
Comment by shelby
2009-11-16 09:07:08

Whoo hoo!

Shout out to my old home town Liberty, Mo!

Who knew their little old wipe (Liberty Tribune!)
was so big-time in the RE Market to make it to a Blog!

 
Comment by Greg in LA
2009-11-16 22:48:50

About that article from the Des Moines Register.

It makes a lot of sense. I am from Des Moines, and believe me people in Iowa often make a lot of sense. My family and I often would say that the policy makers, don’t give a hoot about the people in places like Iowa, They only care about what benefits the people in CA and NY and DC. Realestate is up in SoCal. so that is all that matters.
The interesting thing though The center of the country often goes on a different cycle than the coasts. The 80’s rocked on the coasts, but the economy was bad in Iowa, the early 90’s things were pretty good, but bad in NY and SoCal. The seventy’s were pretty good economicaly in Iowa as well.

I work in the entertainment industry in LA. The entertainment industry in LA has been terrible for over a year, but I have friends in Iowa who are working on a major film. Go figure.

Any way I hate real estate, and at the moment I think the whole real estate industry and our Government and Fed. reserve is a giant gang of thieves.

 
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