Bits Bucket For November 18, 2009
Post off-topic ideas, links and Craigslist finds here. Please visit the HBB Forum.
Examining the home price boom and its effect on owners, lenders, regulators, realtors and the economy as a whole.
Post off-topic ideas, links and Craigslist finds here. Please visit the HBB Forum.
Metro Phoenix growth stalls-
Here’s the money shot: “John Graham, president of Sunbelt Holdings, said he sees flat growth as good news because he thought the Valley had lost 200,000 people in the past few years.”
http://www.azcentral.com/arizonarepublic/news/articles/2009/11/18/20091118population1118.html
More problems for cali’s budget, another 21 billion in the hole.
http://www.latimes.com/news/local/la-me-budget-deficit18-2009nov18,0,7647152.story
Its almost here
The next revolution send the illegals home…or stop asking for guvmint money
Did they really lose that population, or did all those new houses turn out to have no actual occupants?
Good question; SRP, one of the two Metro Phoenix’ electric utilities, reported a loss of 30 household customers ‘07 to ‘08.
30 customers is a fairly low number.Would have expected more.SRP seems to be a fairly decent utility company from my experience.
Power transformer sales to the area are down a lot - though Vegas is much worse. Phoenix looks to be in suspended animation for a long while yet.
Lender That Really Does God’s Work Is Slowed by Funding Decline.
Nov. 18 (Bloomberg) — Mark Holbrook helped fuel a church construction boom by originating more than $3 billion of mortgages in the past decade, transforming a $2 million credit union he joined after Bible college into the largest U.S. evangelical lender.
Evangelical Christian Credit Union, run by Holbrook since 1979, was the leading force behind the increase in credit flowing to churches in the form of five-year commercial mortgages with minimal monthly payments and lower initial costs than bond sales, the other widely used form of financing. Unlike the banks that joined the trend, ECCU catered exclusively to evangelical ministries, putting 83 percent of its assets in loans on churches and religious schools.
Now, the Brea, California-based company’s delinquency rate has more than doubled since the end of 2007 and mortgage originations have slumped because of a decline in financing. Commercial church mortgages are coming due with so-called balloon payments, replacement loans have disappeared and the highest unemployment rate in 26 years has cut congregant donations. About 145 churches have gone into bankruptcy since the credit crunch accelerated in 2008, an upheaval in a lending niche that bankers once ranked among the safest in real estate.
“We have seen more church foreclosures and bank-pressured sales, if you will, in this last year than we have seen in 20 years,” said Matthew Messier, a principal at CNL Specialty Real Estate Services Corp., a broker in Orlando, Florida, that caters to religious and educational clients. “A lot of people think commercial is going to get worse before it gets better, and it could be the same for many churches.”
Since a church enjoys a tax exempt status, do I get to skip paying taxes if I buy one?
(A little tounge-in-cheek as I enjoy my first sip of joe.)
We keep talking about looking up the rules. Can we turn our geek clubhouse into a church somehow.
Good idea VA. Ben, file the papers to make this a church.
This is not a new story, but apropos. Apologies if it has been posted before.
“This is the story of Chicago banker George Michael, who lives in a gorgeous $3 million mansion in Lake Bluff. Being a man of logic and finance, he didn’t much like his $80,000 yearly property-tax bill.
So he found an Internet outfit called the Church of Spiritual Humanism. According to the church’s Web site, it’s not big on faith, but it’s all about reason:
“If you agree that Religion must be based on Reason, you can be ordained right now for free, and be still able to practice your own religious traditions by simply clicking the button below:
“ORDAIN ME.”
And lo, Michael clicked “Ordain Me,” and it was done.
Michael submitted evidence to the Illinois Department of Revenue that his mansion wasn’t really a mansion. It was a church and therefore exempt from the burden of $80,000 a year in property taxes.”
http://archives.chicagotribune.com/2009/jul/22/news/chi-kass-22-jul22
I don’t see why not. Seemingly if you buy up property and stick a school on it, it becomes tax exempt too or so I’ve been told.
Just heard this from a guy in San Francisco who works with very wealthy people who do exactly that. Presumably that’s how they continue to stay wealthy.
So, PotBuy should we all become ordained and register our condos/apts? How cool!
Service is now in session.
Soap boxes are so passe!
When I here church and money in the same sentence I run like I`m on fire!! lol
Lane
Amen brother, I’ve been burned by those pious
souls who make their deals while holding on to
their bibles. I run like hell whenever confronted
by those hypocrites.
Wolves in sheeps clothing are always around.
What would Jesus do? Overturn the money-changers’ tables!
Blind the sheep with religion
Then
Shear the sheep
You are born blind. It is not someone else’s fault.
I do find it interesting that the ONLY time Christ ever lost his temper was when he encounted the money lenders in the Temple. Even when he was taken away to be crucified as an innocent, that didn’t anger him - but the money lenders received the whip.
I do find it interesting that the ONLY time Christ ever lost his temper was when he encounted the money lenders in the Temple.
It’s all about Christ
I can see that picture on the front of a Christmas card… not sure I have the guts, though.
I can see that picture on the front of a Christmas card…
That’s what you’re gettin’ if you’re on my XMas list.
delinquency rate has more than doubled since the end of 2007 and mortgage originations have slumped because of a decline
Oh golly, those christians. Pshaw.
I wonder if they want gov help?
But not want others to have same help.
I know the ones I hear from want ‘theirs’ but do not want others to enjoy same.
What is good for the good is not good for the gander it would seem to them.
Our church recently built a huge church with a $6 million dollar mortgage. I’ve always thought there were better ways to spend the money like help feed the poor in our area ( and we have many). People are worried about paying their own mortgage let alone a church’s mortgage.
What the heck do the banks do with a foreclosed church anyway?
Sell it to a developer?
Evidently god ain’t providin’
U.S. mortgage applications drop even as rates fall.
NEW YORK, Nov 18 (Reuters) - U.S. mortgage applications fell last week, with demand for home purchase loans dropping to a 12-year low even as interest rates on 30-year loans fell to their lowest level in six months, data from an industry group showed on Wednesday.
Home purchase loan demand fell for a sixth straight week, a trend that does not bode well for the U.S. housing market, which has been showing signs of stabilization after a three-year slump.
The Mortgage Bankers Association said its seasonally adjusted index of mortgage applications USMGM=ECI, which includes both purchase and refinance loans, decreased 2.5 percent to 611.7 for the week ended Nov. 13.
The hard-hit housing market, a primary driver of the worst U.S. recession since the 1930s, remains highly vulnerable and many are hopeful that the federal government’s intervention will prevent any setbacks.
Ned Redpath, owner/president of Coldwell Banker - Redpath & Co., Realtors in Hanover, New Hampshire, said the recent extension and expansion of the home buyer tax credit is a positive development, but believes it expires too early.
“with demand for home purchase loans dropping to a 12-year low even as interest rates on 30-year loans fell to their lowest level in six months
…home buyer tax credit is a positive development, but believes it expires too early.”
Time to prime the pumps again. I am still holding out for the $100K buyer’s tax credit. No, make that $100K cash in hand.
…got $100K do I hear 150K?
If it wouldn’t be so sad how our hard earned tax dollars get squandered it would be funny to watch.
LIke I’ve said before, I’m gonna wait until they hand out free houses.
Oh, Cleveland and Detroit are pretty close to that already. Auctioned homes at 1$ per house.
Pretty sure you will see that in las Vegas and in plenty of Florida too. Not to mention inland california.
I wonder what the banks are thinking sitting on all that inventory?
What? The government might not know what it is doing? Tax credits and free fanny and freddie loans for all aren’t working? What now? I’m sure Chris Dodd and Barney and TTT will come up with something spectacularly brilliant this time. The did save us all the first time trouble showed up.
“Home purchase loan demand fell for a sixth straight week, a trend that does not bode well for the U.S. housing market, which has been showing signs of stabilization after a three-year slump.”
What signs of stabilization does it show when something is descending?
Does the slope of the decrease lessen? Math/Econ majors help me out here. Methinks this belongs in the jumbo shrimp/military intelligence category.
You do realize that it is mostly math and econ majors that have been completely wrong at every turn on this, don’t you? Why would you ask for their help now?
By math majors I suppose you mean the quants at the investment firms.
I have a Protestant Fundamentalist relative who was visiting us with his family. During that visit he told me that we shouldn’t trust science for anything (this was a jab at evolution). I reminded him that he trusted science enough to put his whole family on an airliner to come out and visit us. Also, his son was born with a congenital heart defect and was saved by some pretty slicjk surgery (again that pesky science thing).
I reminded him that its one thing to be skeptical of the spontaneous appearance of life, and quite another to throw all science into the “can’t be trusted” category.
I’m not skeptical, we were put here by space travelers. Genesis for earth solved
———————————–
I reminded him that its one thing to be skeptical of the spontaneous appearance of life
In Colorado, what was your relative’s response?
Nobody ever questions the “spontaneous appearance” of God. And God is a much more complex entity than some single-cell organism.
I’m not skeptical, we were put here by space travelers. Genesis for earth solved
——————————————————————-
Yea, this is probably the galaxy’s prison planet.
“Yea, this is probably the galaxy’s prison planet.”
I haven’t seen any dolphins recently have you?
In Colorado, what was your relative’s response?
Something along the line of “that’s entirely different”.
Something along the line of “that’s entirely different”.
Those “christians/fundamentalists” just cherry picking to suit their fear based agenda.
“I reminded him that he trusted science enough to put his whole family on an airliner to come out and visit us.”
Not to insult your relative (much) but you just nailed one of the ‘fundemental’ aspects of every fundie I have ever met. They are just too f-ing stupid to ever grasp that EVERYTHING our civilization relies upon is a DIRECT result of technology and applied science. Thats why I’m a dyed in the wool aetheist. faith in religion just isn’t rational and if it isn’t rational it really ins’t worth $hit as far as i’m concerned. If that offends anyone reading this, well….Too bad. I’m as entitled to my opinion as anyone and I can at least clain that I have thought the issue through rather than just pointing to some ancient myth.
OK, rant off, LOL. It’s been a stressfull week and its only wednesday.
OK, rant off, LOL. It’s been a stressfull week and its only wednesday.
Its OK. FWIW, he isn’t stupid, he simply (at the time) has settled into a belief system that he couldn’t reconcile with the natural world around him. He has modified his view somewhat since then.
Good to hear that he has broadened his mind somewhat.
The thing that is so appalingly tragic is how little most people appreciate how amazing the world is RIGHT NOW. We are truely standing on the shoulders of giants but so few people really get that.
I once has someone tell me that she felt sorry for me that I didn’t believe in god and that I must have no sense of wonder about the world. I just laughed in her face. To me is it wonderous that I can gaze up at the night sky and appreciate what it is that I am actually seeing. Whats wonderous is that people like Galileo, Kepler and Newton could peel back the veil of myth and superstision and allow ALL of us to grasp the stars. This is far more ‘wonderous’ to me than any ’sky father’ story and I have no problem telling people ‘you can stuff your creation myths, I’ll take calculus and thermodynamics any day.
He has modified his view somewhat since then.
How did he do this? What made him revise his mystical beliefs?
Okay, scratch that. Any hot dog vendors (profitable ones only please) out there who can explain the whole y=mx + b thing to me?
The polymoanial is huge.
There you go, the real answers come from mixing the science, albeit dismal, with the common sense of persons who have been there and done that.
And to answer your question, nobody can tell the future with any regularity, but from slopes, trendlines, etc. one can give probabilistic answers that can help make decisions with greater confidence.
The two most omportant things I am watching are the 12 month trendline of NOD and the 3 month trend on PPSF.
Easy. Its the equation for a straight line, drawn on a scale having two axes (Cartesian coordinates?); m is the slope (or, tangent) of the line, b is the value for where the line crosses the y axis when x is zero. If the line rises from left to right, the term mx is positive, I think. Hey! Its been 30+ years!
Sales were up, supply was down. Rate of change of decline had also slowed.
Hence, signs of life in the market.
Resent the military remark.
General ramble below….
Problems with the data:
Short term trends don’t necessarily equate to long term trends.
In a very low rate of sale market the data can be quite noisy. Especially if you are talking about beach areas. A few houses with ocean frontage or view can distort median quite a bit.
Government loan standards and incentives move demand potentially. Often this is borrowing from the future.
Time constants in the data. Takes a bit of time to proceed past teaser rates, resets, recasts, NOD to NOTS while factoring in volume delays.
Basically it is a massive downward slide. I believe most of the midwest is closer to the bottom. I expect they will have a population boom as business flee the high cost areas.
Now, we are looking at a lot of the stronger hands in the market place trying to decide what to do with the property they are holding. Liquidate and take losses? Hold and rent? Eat loss and keep going?
Additionally people aren’t very rational about houses. Hence the realtor(r) tactics are often appeals to emotion rather than cold business sense. A large portion of the population will hold on to their homes no matter what.
Another phenomena is loss aversion. People will not sell because they would realize the loss. Kind of like finally walking away from the poker table and realizing you blew your rent money. As long as you are still sitting there, you have a shot to win.
Hence the data can get pretty funny. I expect the boomlet to grow just a bit more and then potentially inventory will explode.
Also wondering when additional trouble in the secondary market will manifiest. Probably soon with FHA. Also the CRE will create even more issues with credit.
Alrighty then.
“Problems with the data:
Short term trends don’t necessarily equate to long term trends.”
And long trends don’t necessarily mean continuing trends.
Positive Derivative.
Oops… positive second derivative (curvature). sorry!
Once again, the peeps are confused. Should they be attending open houses or should they be at the mall?
Why both, you silly goose! Now get out there and consume imported goods dammit!
It doesn’t matter what you buy, as long as you spend 150% of what you’re earning.
Well, Dubya is clearing brush at the ‘ol ranch. What do he care? He got his, Jack!
Professor Nouriel Roubini says the job picture will get worse in 2010. Maybe bump up to 11 percent or so.
“Many of the lost jobs are gone forever, including construction jobs, finance jobs and manufacturing jobs. Recent studies suggest that a quarter of U.S. jobs are fully out-sourceable over time to other countries.
”Other measures tell the same ugly story: The average length of unemployment is at an all time high; the ratio of job applicants to vacancies is 6 to 1; initial claims are down but continued claims are very high and now millions of unemployed are resorting to the exceptional extended unemployment benefits programs and are staying in them longer.
“Based on my best judgment, it is most likely that the unemployment rate will peak close to 11% and will remain at a very high level for two years or more.”
He is wrong, it will be 13% by 2012.
Just like Roubini, I pulled the number out of my a**.
“He is wrong, it will be 13% by 2012.”
I’m thinking more like 26%.
I’m obviously a much bigger a** than you or Roubini.
I predict as UE approaches Great Depression 1 levels, they will simply change how it is reported to make sure it never gets “too high.”
So, even if unemployment is up to some frightenining level, the official number will look good - and the DOW will keep going up! (measured in devaluated dollars, of course.)
“I predict as UE approaches Great Depression 1 levels, they will simply change how it is reported to make sure it never gets “too high.” ”
They _already_ did that—way back in 1996. Was that great foresight on the part of govt?
Headline inflation as reported today is much lower now than it would have been if we reported it the same way that we did back in GD-I.
Do I hear 26.5%.
Just like Roubini, I pulled the number out of my a**.
“Watch me pull a number out of my ass”
“Again, Bullwinkle?”
ROFLMAO
Thanks lavi!
“Recent studies suggest that a quarter of U.S. jobs are fully out-sourceable over time to other countries.”
Okay, what’s the solution to this outsourcing? How can jobs be kept in the U.S.?
Anyone have the answer?
Just posted a couple possible solutions. They’d all work, but they’d piss off the corporations. Sorry. You can have jobs for many or you can profit for a few, not both. We’ve apparently picked profit. Thank you for playing.
1. Accept low salary and benefits.
2. Reduce Taxes for small business/people.
3. Less Military and Govmint spending.
4. Fix illegal immigration. Increase legal immigration and let them in if they score high in your point systems like Canada.
5. Create a business friendly environment for small businesses. Don’t burden them with all kinds of taxes and restrictions.
#6 allow anyone without a criminal record to get a green card if they put 50% down on a house.
#7. And if you don’t pay your mortage you get deported.
Require US Corporations that offshore work (and outsource work) to mandate that the foreign factories adhere to the same environmental standards that they would have to adhere to in USA.
Allow the dollar to sink to a level where our workers become competetive. At the end of the day, I believe that this is the ONLY way. Look, we’re much more efficient at turning hours of labor into products than say, the Chinese. But we’re paid much much much higher salaries. This is the CENTRAL imbalance that leads to all the others. This causes the trade imbalance, which enables the RE and Equity bubbles and large government deficits (All those excess dollars that the Chinese and others have accumulated).
Bingo. We have the winner, but it also means
minimum wage jobs forever.
Not minimum wage, but wages that will allow one to afford a cardboard box and one bowl of rice a day. An article yesterday said that only 8% of chinese have disposable income, ie after paying for food and shelter they can afford well anything. This is what we are heading for.
Wall Street and the elites have won. They will have a world of people who are poor and hungry. They will work for nothing but the chance to keep living and feed their family. If push comes to shove (ie from neighboring country) they will work for less. They will not complain with a 70 hour work week. They will not complain when they are asked to mix toxic material into food or building materials or medicine. Those who control natural resources and gov will become even more powerfull and wealthy.
The solution is well known and repeated throughout history.
+1
Exactly. Because, for the true Wall Street style sociopath, it is not enough for them to be absurdly rich - everyone else must also be terribly poor.
Why are you all accepting the fate that Wall Street and the monopolies have in store for you ? Wouldn’t you fight a hood that tries to break into your house ? I still think that the Majority can take back America again and maybe prevent the fate that is developing because of the current Power structures . At the drop of a dime ,the Politicians could create new laws that favor Main Street for a change . Laws could go into effect that actually penalize outsourcing and twisted trade balances . Incentives could come into play that actually reward Companies that provide jobs for Americans .
Wall Street screwed America big time in 1929 ,but the Politicians at the time saw to it that they were put in a controlled box for about 70 years . The current Politicians
must do the same as they did in the 30’s and overhaul the corrupt stacked deck that came about because of bribed
de-regulations and favorable laws to the BIG CASINO and other monopolies along with slave labor competition and open borders in more ways than one .
Wall Street /Banks/Insurance Companies /Corporations just created a situation were fewer people got more of the wealth ,which is contrary to the long term trend of the middle class getting more of a piece of the pie. Apparently the United States works a lot better when more of the distribution of wealth goes to the great middle class/upper middle class . I’m not saying that if a person gets wealth
the good old fashion way ,they aren’t entitled to it ,but if you steal it by a stacked deck by bribing Politicians to enact favorable laws ,than your a brat kid that cries to mommy every time the playing field in leveled out . What is worse is that the elite Power structure is well skilled in getting Politicians to transfer social costs and bail outs to the taxpayers . Such a deal .
But unlike the Chinese, America’s poor has easy access to projectile weapons.
Pull out all of the ridiculous government supports and let housing prices fall another 50% nationwide on average, as they most certainly would.
Americans could then maintain their standard of living on smaller paychecks, pay being reduced to the extent necessary to remain competitive with other nations where labor costs are much less. We’ll never be as cheap as other countries when looking at labor by itself, but we have numerous other competitive advantages that even the playing field in enough cases, if we’d just let our costs of living fall to the non-subsidized levels that they want to, greatly closing the labor cost gaps.
iftheshoefits,
Can’t agree fast enough. When you have to someone in the Bay Area a min. of $75 to $100k just so they can afford a NINJA loan how is it possible to be competitive?
I’d work for min. if a 3/2 house cost $65k.
Move the business to flyover country?
Businesses are moving out and it will get worse. There are no tax advantages to staying in Californian.
The miserable basXXXXs in govt encourage me to pay the majority of my take home pay to pay for shelter, well then can kiss my entire rear end. I’d rather take my family and move in with other family members.
Fecaltime!
How do the ‘other family members’ feel about that?
slothtime!
Well that’s what they’re trying to do with health care. Bring down health care costs, allow housing costs to fall (make the FB’s rent or otherwise go BK), and GM won’t NEED a bailout.
Okay, what’s the solution to this outsourcing? How can jobs be kept in the U.S.?
Let’s just call the whole world the U.S. okay? If you average all the taxes and services of all the major countries in the world, they are about the same as the U.S.
So there! Just imagine that the territories of Red China, Russia, India, and European countries are all the U.S. Then we would not quibble about which geographically-based group is doing what! May as well invest in them too! VEIEX, DODFX, PRASX. Put over 30% of your assets into international stock funds AND STOP WHINING!
Okay, what’s the solution to this outsourcing? How can jobs be kept in the U.S.?
Anyone have the answer?
Crash the dollar
one more answer
black death plague that kills 30 % of all humans
less workers higher wages
The first thing is take away the tax breaks for offshoring.
15,000 Off Shore Criminals turn themselves in to IRS
MIAMI - More than 14,700 U.S. taxpayers came forward to disclose billions in offshore bank accounts in 70 countries under a voluntary Internal Revenue Service program allowing most to avoid criminal prosecution as long as they pay what they owe, IRS officials said Tuesday.
A flood of people came forward in the last days before the amnesty program expired Oct. 15, IRS Commissioner Doug Shulman said. The final total far surpasses the number who disclose offshore accounts in a typical year — about 100 — and comes amid a broad U.S. crackdown on international tax evasion at Swiss bank UBS AG and other institutions.
“To put it simply, this is a historic milestone for the nation’s hardworking taxpayers,” Shulman said in a conference call from Washington.
The total in taxes, interest and penalties collected from those in the voluntary disclosure program will be in the
“BILLIONS of dollars,” Shulman said. The disclosures involved accounts on every continent but Antarctica.
Taxpayers flocked to the amnesty program after the U.S. reached an agreement in August with the Swiss government and UBS to obtain names of 4,450 U.S. taxpayers believed to be hiding assets in secret bank accounts. Earlier this year, UBS paid a $780 million penalty under a deferred prosecution agreement filed in a Florida federal court that included disclosure of an additional 150 names.
Seven of those people have been charged criminally, with at least two getting sentenced to prison time.
Shulman said the combination of the UBS disclosures and the amnesty program have fundamentally changed the offshore tax landscape, particularly in Switzerland where bank secrecy was the tradition for centuries.
“It shows we are serious about piercing the veil of bank secrecy,” he said. “The whole game has changed.”
END
They are traitors to the United States
and should be tried for TREASON AFAIAC
For the same “crime” the rebels who ignored the taxes of King George in the thirteen colonies should have been tried for TREASON justifiably too, from your point of view.
Nice. We have a British loyalist here folks!
Nice. We have a British loyalist here folks!
London is one of my favorite cities!
I would invite you, but you are all wet.
I mean always swimming;>
But no loyalist Bila.
Would like to see corps pay up too.
Look if ‘you’ are going to enjoy the benefits of living, working, doing biz in the US, then you have to participate fully. If ‘you’ want to use Free Speech and other tools in our bucket, then you owe the taxes ‘you’ have been hiding.
That’s just damn socialeest/commie talk, DD. Why, everybody knows that the Murican way to do business is to socialize the risk and privatize the profits! Anything else is just, just damn socialeesm!
everybody knows that the Murican way to do business
Speaking to the choir!
OT***tell Stpn that there is the ALIEN marathon this coming Saturday so we can all watch for that musical piece!
And Bill…. for you:
“Second, the Boston Tea Party can’t be explained merely as an outburst of nationalism. After all, colonial Americans still identified themselves as British. Nor was it an anti-monarchal uprising like the French Revolution, at least at the outset. Looking closely at the events that led up to that night, we see that it was a highly targeted attempt to block the British East India Company from carrying out a specific plan to monopolize American commodities markets, starting with tea. When respectable American businessmen - including John Hancock, one of the richest men in America - took the uncharacteristically radical action of dressing up in disguise and committing wholesale vandalism, the motivating
force was not abstract. It was literally to defend their businesses. In other words, it was a highly pragmatic economic rebellion against an overbearing corporation, rather than a political rebellion against an oppressive
government. Or more accurately, it was a rebellion against a corporation and a government that were thoroughly intertwined.”
-Gangs of America page 54
We certainly got along well before the 16th amendment and all these added unconstitutional agencies.
The true patriot flies the flag of the original 13 colonies (not 50 states) as a symbol of agreeing with the level of small government that was within the realm of the US constitution. The 50 state flag is a symbol of backing big government that is foreign to the ideas of our founders.
Long live the spirits of Thomas Paine, Thomas Jefferson, and Lysander Spooner.
DD
I hid no taxes. Ever. I paid all the taxes I owe. You are not playing a guessing game here. You are slandering (seriously) me for something that you are imagining.
something that you are imagining.
wth are you talking about?
Did I say YOU?
Are we not talking about how those off HBB are doing this and doing that?
Are you a little bit nervous? Again, did I say you?
“did I say you?”
Right here:
Look if ‘you’ are going to enjoy the benefits of living, working, doing biz in the US, then you have to participate fully. If ‘you’ want to use Free Speech and other tools in our bucket, then you owe the taxes ‘you’ have been hiding.
DD:
I want to eliminate corp taxes it just increases the final cost to us anyway.
But it also mans if they lose money uncle sam wont bail them out by applying the losses against future income..since there would be no tax either way.
And we wont be subsiding $50 mill a year paychecks either…that is what shareholders are for.
———————————————————
But no loyalist Bila.
Would like to see corps pay up too.
BiLA sounds nervous to me too. Book him, DDanno.
‘you’
Bila, did you not notice the ‘ and ‘ ?
Instead of using quotation marks, I chose to use ‘ ‘ hoping to convey to those who were using, and often do use really dangerous language that would inflame someone who is really on the fringe to take action.
Also using quotations would have indicated that it was actually a quote.
Nowhere did I say You bila. Go take another lap!
And to eco’s post, George Washington had to bring in an Italian tailor to make his inauguration suit as it was illegal to make clothing here in the US with the wool/cotton that they grew and exported to France/England.
Offshoring in its originality.
Fixed that.
Now we need to fix it again.
A “jobless recovery” is a bubble, no more or less.
I’ve been saying this for a while. I wonder, if you add up all the outsourced and insourced jobs, how that compares to the number of now unemployed. These are jobs that were were normally done by those too poor or not smart enough to get better education.
The only ways to employ these unemployed is to
1. Get serious about immigration reform (not likely, businesses like cheap and frightened labor).
2. Go protectionist with trade. (can’t do that, they own our debt.)
3. Create jobs in new technology like energy. However, that takes time and capital investment. And Wall Street was too busy living high on the three-month returns to bother with that pesky R&D. Obama is trying to invest but he’s being slammed (here among other places) for too much spending.
2. Go protectionist with trade. (can’t do that, they own our debt.)
They also buy what we sell, some of it at least. We need each other in this respect.
So what ,we pay them back the debt slow. Time to get away from being owned .
Get serious about immigration reform (not likely, businesses like cheap and frightened labor).
And the dems need new voters.
Not sure I believe this. Based on the last election, the Dems already have enough votes, especially if they court young citizens of any culture. And if the Republicans can’t woo Hispanics and other immigrants with cheap jobs and low taxes (didn’t they try that 2000-2007?), well…
Oh, please.
The democrats do it for votes and republicans do it for their business friends. End of story. GOP trying hard for these votes with little goodies is a whole another story. When you have a populace that’s 100% dependent on Government services that’s a goldmine for democrats and they know it and they will do all to increase that voter base. It’s politics 101.
Let’s just for a moment imagine that the new immigrants vote 80% republicans. Do you think the dems would still support for “quick path to citizenship?”
Besides extremely rich white folks, trust fund metro white kids, Blacks and Hispanics, I don’t think dems can rely on any other votes for granted. So they need to increase the vote banks. Yes 2006 & 2008 was different, but it’s not a trend. Here’s what the dems’ British siblings were doing. Don’t forget that this also had the hidden agenda - permanent labor votes.
Jack Straw and Tony Blair ‘dishonestly’ concealed a plan to allow in more immigrants and make Britain more multi-cultural because they feared a public backlash if it was made public, it has been claimed.
The allegation was made after a former Labour adviser said the Government opened up UK borders partly to humiliate Right-wing opponents of immigration.
dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1222769/Dishonest-Blair-Straw-accused-secret-plan-multicultural-UK.html#ixzz0XE2yO8QQ
And the dems need new voters.
It ain’t the Dems that need a new wellspring of voters.
Note the actions of the RNC Chairman, who claims to be “taking the GOP’s message to the streets.” While we’re at it, why is Michael Steele the RNC chairman, anyway?
Oh, please.
The democrats do it for votes and republicans do it for their business friends. End of story. GOP trying hard for these votes with little goodies is that’s a whole another story. When you have a populace that’s 100% dependent on Government services that’s a goldmine for democrats.
Let’s just for a moment imagine that the new immigrants vote 80% republicans. Do you think the dems would still support for “quick path to citizenship?”
Besides extremely rich white folks, trust fund metro white kids, Blacks and Hispanics, I don’t think dems can rely on any other votes for granted. So they need to increase the vote banks. Yes 2006 & 2008 was different, but it’s not a trend. Here’s what the dems’ British siblings were doing. Don’t forget that this also had the hidden agenda - permanent labor votes.
Jack Straw and Tony Blair ‘dishonestly’ concealed a plan to allow in more immigrants and make Britain more multi-cultural because they feared a public backlash if it was made public, it has been claimed.
The allegation was made after a former Labour adviser said the Government opened up UK borders partly to humiliate Right-wing opponents of immigration.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1222769/Dishonest-Blair-Straw-accused-secret-plan-multicultural-UK.html#ixzz0XE2yO8QQ
When you have a populace that’s 100% dependent on Government services
Presumably, if all these immigrants had the tax breaks and minimum wage jobs that you advocate, they wouldn’t qualify for any government services.
The democrats do it for votes
I’m not so sure. Mexican immigrants have a track record of not naturalizing. I suppose that eventually their US born kids will grow up and vote. In that case points to the Dems for haveing long term vision, as opposed to the “Stupid Party”, which cannot look beyond next quarter’s profit numbers.
Besides extremely rich white folks, trust fund metro white kids, Blacks and Hispanics, I don’t think dems can rely on any other votes for granted.
What voters can the GOP take for granted?
It’s a much smaller demographic, and getting smaller relative to the population as a whole. Thus the constant attempts to keep any non-whites from voting, illegal aliens and actual citizens alike. If they could grab those demographics one way or another, they would. They make half-hearted attempts to do so all the time, but such attempts are also at odds with the will of the GOP’s core demographics. Conundrum!
Don’t like GOP and don’t feel the need to defend it. But I will try anyway.
Even with your accounts, GOP seems like what a political party should be, no? Doesn’t have a voter base or machine and needs to win every vote based on ideas and performance. Democrats are on the other hand…..
Well if asking for a voter registration id before you vote is an attempt to keep non-whites from voting, then I suppose I don’t know what else to say. Then again republicans may need to ask for voter id as dems tend to find votes in their glove compartments and also they seem to very popular with dead people.
Even with your accounts, GOP seems like what a political party should be, no? Doesn’t have a voter base or machine and needs to win every vote based on ideas and performance.
Huh? I said the opposite.
They have a very hardcore but shrinking voter base. They would like to expand that base, but that expansion is at odds with the values of their core demographic. So they make pandering, half-hearted attempts to woo new voters, while sending contradictory messages to their base. Their attempts to “win every vote based on ideas and performance” doesn’t seem to be going too well, and the party must do something to resolve the inherent conflict I outlined above, regardless of what one thinks about their ideas and policies.
They have a very hardcore but shrinking voter base. They would like to expand that base, but that expansion is at odds with the values of their core demographic.
Au contraire, Repubs tend to have large families, while Dems tend to abort themselves out of existence.
And all those Repub children are tending to vote Democratic. Guess how much of the 18-29 vote was won by Obama.
Au contraire, Repubs tend to have large families, while Dems tend to abort themselves out of existence.
Tell that to the working-class Irish Catholic or Latino families with multiple generations of (D) voters, they’ll get a good chuckle.
What voters can the GOP take for granted?
Protestant Fundamentalists?
Protestant Fundamentalists?
If the GOP were to distance themselves from religion and go back to being fiscally conservative and really support individual freedom, I’d go out and canvass for them.
The GOP is always fiscally conservative– when they’re not in power.
I wish I’d saved The Onion’s video bit on “My Right to have a sh!tty JOB!”
God it was hysterical. “My grandfather had a sh!tty job, my father had a sh!tty job and I’ll be damned if my KIDS won’t have ‘their’ Right to a sh!tty job!”
At the risk of getting slammed from all sides, why have we been so concerned about preserving ‘jobs’ pretty much everyone considers a “last resort”? I don’t get it.
Try this one.
http://www.politico.com/blogs/bensmith/1109/Mocking_the_teleprompter.html
‘FDA replaces food pyramid with corn monolith’
LOL
At the risk of getting slammed from all sides, why have we been so concerned about preserving ‘jobs’ pretty much everyone considers a “last resort”?
That’s a good question. But the quality of the job depends on the context and the long-view, no?
Think of bubble-related jobs (Realtor, mortgage broker, financial industry cog, developer, nail salon magnate) that were considered plum just a few years ago, so much so that people in ordinary-but-respectable lines of work were jumping ship for these (often) high-paying jobs that (often) had low barriers to entry.
ET-Chicago,
Very true. And getting people that “jumped ship” to these high paying ( but completely UNsustainable fields ) to see them for what they were.., was almost impossible!
I can’t think of ‘one’ MB during The Boom that wasn’t fully convinced that each year wouldn’t be better than his/her last? Against that backdrop, it’s all uphill to force people to “get real” about the true state of our employment market.
It also harbored the illusion that ‘anyone’ could become any ‘thing’ they wanted to! ( With or without all that bothersome education? ) Unfortunately what we’ll need to do to claw our way out of this is to have each and every person find their place, get motivated and get qualified one-person-at-a-time. Putting broad swaths of people that view work as nothing more than an intrusion into their personal lives just isn’t going to work.
It also harbored the illusion that ‘anyone’ could become any ‘thing’ they
Commercials are now showing SBBC(?) to get your Trainer certification- HURRY!
trainers as in gym trainers, excerpt is ‘why work when you can train at a gym …”
I can’t be in a foul mood today. During lunch, Young Frankenstein ….aaaaaaaaahh sweet mystery of life at last I’ve found youuuuuuuuuuuuuu. Well, that and the Marx bros will distract even the grumpiest of us.
Construction jobs aren’t off-shorable for the most part, unless they pack houses into connex containers or what have you (mmm chinese drywall).
I can see these jobs coming back. I mean, at some point in the future there will be another real estate bubble.
True, but they are “on-shorable”. Here in my neck of the woods illegals did the lion’s share of residential construction work during the bubble. The only work I saw Americans do was:
electrical
plumbing
HVAC
trim carpentry.
So for all practical purposes those jobs have been lost to Americans.
Also, I have noticed that the “illegal index” at the local WalMart is way down these days. The construction folks have moved on.
“Illegal index?”
I have noticed that the signs in Spanish have disappeared from Home Despot. And a couple other places, but I haven’t kept track.
The drop in the number of hispanics shopping at the local WalMart has been quite noticeable. Granted, only a subset are illegals, but I wouldn’t be surprised if the overwhelming majority of missing Hispanics turned out to be illegals.
I’ve found that the best place to look for an Illegal Index is stores that sell baby stuff.
I noticed the hispanic work crews in SoCal but not here in Montana. It was still a lot of young anglo dudes..I was happy for them that they were able to get good work out of high school, especially since most the mills have closed, logging has shrunk to practically nothing, railroad jobs gone… but it’s all over now. School or military the only options really.
Why is Roubini’s estimate so close to Mauldin’s “sunshine and roses and no double dip recession at all and the recovery gets robust very soon” prediction?
Did anyone else read that column from over the weekend? That was one depressing e-mail.
Even jobs you don’t think could be changed/outsourced drastically. For example, teachers can be replaced by online pre-recorded presentations. One teacher can grade hundreds of papers if he wasn’t in the classroom much.
Fecaltime!
Hey!!!!!
Thanks Ahanson and everyone else who found Mozarts Serenade No. 13 in G Major work for me. I had been looking for that for a while….
PAO denied my request to send a pic with the shirt, sorry Ben. But trust, there are other ways for me to get a pic with it. I have a little bit of traveling to do and we will get creative.
In other news, I have a friend who bought a house in 2004 for around $200,000. Said he was selling for $500K+. Couldnt understand why I was saying time doesnt equal appreciation in all cases. He was adamant that he should get at least $500k. I told him he wouldnt unless he found a fool and he needed to be prepared for this market. Looks I lost an aquaintance…
Too bad about the pic, maybe we can eventually work something out.
As far as your friend, this brings up an old subject; “how to be a bubble believer, win friends and influence people.” Some of you may know that most of my friends are realtors, builders, appraisers, etc. (This is partly due to the fact that most of the people in N AZ are in some way in the biz.) I guess because they got to know me after I started this blog and thought it was quaint that I didn’t think it would last forever, that they were not offended. But I have met people in the last few years that were absolutely pissed off by this blog and what I was posting.
I have found a few ways to placate people on the subject; one, act like “but what do I know, I’m just a blogger with an uneducated opinion.” This leaves them feeling comfortable with the notion that I’m clueless without them having to say it. I’m sure other posters have found similar tactics.
I used to get laughed at, my ever-handy mortgage reset chart was generally ignored, I was known as a goom-and-doomer.
Not anymore.
I don’t talk about it anymore. There were close friends I tried to share the info with when I first found Ben’s blog. By their reaction, you would have thought I was talking about an alien abduction site. I actually believed for a while that last October’s meltdown would have won me some converts but no. Only one person said wow you were right. It’s sad because these people have a considerable amount to lose. That’s why I chose them to share the info with. But when you’re smart enough to reach these accumulations you also feel you’re smart enough to decide how to keep it safe. Friends w/o a real nest egg to protect I haven’t even bothered. Why scare them?
Sometimes I now watch friends do something that I consider digging a hole. But I don’t get involved. Thankfully they don’t tell me its the best time to buy a house either. You know when things do really start to fall apart we’ll be there for each other. That’s what really counts to me.
‘you would have thought I was talking about an alien abduction site’
A lot of people forget that part of the mania. The reactions ranged from people thinking we were amusing, to seriously insane to being very angry at us for being spoilers. I initially let trolls post these reactions (as long as they weren’t vulgar) as I saw it being something that needed to be documented. By December 2005, I couldn’t keep up with deleting all the foul language being thrown at us and I went to full moderation, and then in Feb 2006 started using wordpress and it’s tools.
I still see a major disconnect. At this stage of the bust, the fact that the housing bubble isn’t even discussed shows that the “conspiracy” type attitude is still there, just maybe in a different form.
And here I thought that the kool-aid drinkers had just abandoned us, either because we’ve been proved right, or because they had no response to our logic. Hey, could you post a few of those messages, some of the old and the new? Nothing stokes the fires of self-satified I told-you-so like the desprate cries of the damned. It’s not that I WANT people to suffer, but I don’t want them or others to make the same mistakes.
What do you mean ben? by not being discussed?
I thought the way these things works is denial denial denial, “there is no problem la la la la housing always goes up, its just a lag it will pick up in summer”
But now the fact there was a bubble is apparent, the fact that house prices are slowly dropping, and once the above people lose their shirts it becomes “I lost it all in the housing bubble what will the government do to fix the housing bubble etc”
basically people will want to act like all the naughty talk about RE being a sure bet was never said by them, and if they did, well lets not live in the past what are we gonna do to fix it.
Ben,
Do you have any logs with those old (the ones that you moderated out) comments in them? I’m sure some of them would be incredibly funny to view now (You a** have no f** idea what you’re talking about, my trailer is going up 50% a year, I’m going to be worth 10M dollars by 2009!!! Go f** urself).
My favorite was going over to SDCIA and reading about “Ben’s Mushroom Farm,” which was even more amusing because speakers at SDCIA meetings were saying exactly the same things we were. People like Bruce Norris and Robert Campbell. Oh well, guess they were ’shruming too.
Well, there are lots in the original blog to look at, not all trolls. Like this one: ”
At 4:43 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said…
What if it never busts ? What if Greenspan and his successor keep the accomodative enviroment going forever ?
Sure, inflation will rise and that surely means that interest rates will rise. But it will also JUSTIFY what the speculative buyers are doing.
Is it possible that the Fed can/will just keep printing money ad infinum to try to get out of this mess ?
Could the number of buyers keep growing for the foreseeable future ? Could the prices on the homes today be justifiable in a high inflation future ?
This would sure make those of us sitting on cash look silly.
First it was the dotcom bubble and now this. Why does it feel like I’ve lived the lsat 7 years of my life trying to justify being a financially conservative person ? What ever happened to the good ole days of saving and prudent investing ? How did our society ever get to the point where it rewards speculators versus regular people ? Who pays the bills in the end ?”
http://thehousingbubble.blogspot.com/2005/03/housing-bubble-denial-turning-to-fear.html#comments
But this was my absolute favorite from April 2005. I read the first comment and then had to think for a bit about how to respond:
“At 12:03 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said…
why do you people hate the idea of every american making a few hundred thousand dollars of profit on their home?
who cares if it is a bubble?
those are REAL DOLLARS.
for fucks sake people, get a life. quit being jealous of everyone else’s success
At 12:14 PM, Blogger Ben Jones said…
Is that a Haiku?”
http://thehousingbubble.blogspot.com/2005/04/think-about-retraining-construction.html#comments
I am now politely known as a sage, wise beyond
his years, slowly nodding his head up and down.
A friend who is trying to sell three (!!) houses told me that she wishes she rented too.
In 2006 DH told a co-worker why the guy should not buy, but he and his wife had a baby, and they bought. Now he wistfully tells DH that he wishes they had waited.
Another co-worker just bought in Chicago. He admitted to having buyers remorse. He and his wife are trying to have a baby, and their new condo is on the third floor with no elevator. And she wanted to buy before she lost her job.
Still I can’t say that we’re always regarded as sages. There is a large contingent of friends and family that secretly wonder if the reason we haven’t bought is perhaps because we’re hopelessly broke. And I’m okay with them thinking that.
Another co-worker just bought in Chicago. He admitted to having buyers remorse. He and his wife are trying to have a baby, and their new condo is on the third floor with no elevator.
Wait three years or so, when they have an unsalable, still-declining asset on their hands and are worried about the local school options. Their current remorse will seem anemic by comparison.
Oh I don’t think it will take three years. Real estate values aside, I’m picturing mommy carrying baby in carrier, diaper bag, and five bags of groceries up and down all those stairs. Heck, even at eight or nine months preggers that won’t be much fun.
mommy carrying baby in carrier, diaper bag, and five bags of groceries up and down all those stairs.
FIT as a fiddle in no time at all, 3rd fl walk up. Great shape.
Only side benefit I see.
I’ve lived in walk-ups for a long time, so that did strike me as a big deal. Then again, my wife was thanking her lucky stars that we only live on the second floor when she was pregnant …
Same here. Well, friends still laugh about it, but their attitudes changed. They went from never thinking it would happen to acting like they knew about it all along and things won’t be that bad.
Other people just won’t listen. And you talk about it too much and it hurts people that did buy and regret it.
I’m still laughed at. This area hasn’t seen any serious price drops. I’d say asking prices are down maybe 10% since peaking in early 2006 - if that. And somehow, homes are still selling. Takes longer, may take a price drop or two (but very small drops). Every now and then you see something sold way below comps, but it’s rare.
Yup, still being mocked outside of Philly.
I managed to persuade my BiL NOT to buy an investment property when I explained that Maryland was a full recourse state and what that meant. And I think that I may have managed to impress some colleagues with my perspecacity after I hogged the conversation at lunch with prognistications of the comming apocalypse a few years ago. But mostly my friends are tolerant of my RE bubble obsession, I supose because few of them are completely F’d, although I suspect some are on an unsupportable path.
It’s surprising the number of people who think they know what they’re talking about. At lunch about a year ago, a former colleague said that he was thinking of writing an algorithm to calculate, with his 401K and salary raises, exactly how long he’d have to work until he could tell his bosses to kiss of and retire. He went on and on about it until I finally said, “Look, they’ve already figured that out with all kinds of scenarios. Just walk into Fidelity or Vanguard and they’ll be glad to help you and o by the way did you base your calculations on a constant 15% capital gains tax or do you think a change in Administration will hike that up at some point?”
That shut them all up.
Jim A,
What I’ve found is that altogether too many people didn’t stumble upon the realization that for ‘anything’ to have penciled out ( you’re probably talking about a multi-family prop. )
In our community of 10,000, those that don’t work for the state or in retail etc. the balance were in some way employed directly or indirectly thru RE. All “I” have found is that rather than being treated like a ’sage’ or some kind of visionary, I have become the focus of their angst and depression. A regular Mr. Popularity.
A regular Mr. Popularity.
LOL
Maryland is full recourse AND the very center of the East Coast Bubble.
“I have found a few ways to placate people on the subject; one, act like “but what do I know, I’m just a blogger with an uneducated opinion.” This leaves them feeling comfortable with the notion that I’m clueless without them having to say it. I’m sure other posters have found similar tactics.”
Nope!
LOL NYCityBoy! I am more of a chameleon, talking openly about my views on housing to the receptive and keeping relatively silent when talking to realtors. But I am making money as a trusted buyer’s agent by people with money saved who have been listening to me for the last five years. We patiently wait for cheap properties that are in good shape. Lowballing mandatory. No falling in love with a house permitted. I’m lucky to live in an area where it’s possible to buy a house for $100/sqft.
Here in “good school suburbs” Northern Ohio, decent, older, well constructed, well maintained homes can be had for under $70/sq ft; 1/4+ acre lots, all city utilities. Prices continue to drop but, at a slower rate. Small but finite number of new homes under construction in otherwise empty developments. What will change bring??
Leave it to NYCityBoy to be blunt! But that’s good! It’s a dose of “black humor.”
I tried one time to give some advice to a colleague about considering renting. She was moving to British Columbia which is certainly the most bubbly province. Of course she’d already heard from a realtor that it was a great time to buy. I pointed out that it was always a great time for the realtor for her to buy, and that pretty much ended the conversation. A couple of weeks later she was showing us her buy on the MLS.
Once they’ve bought, you might as well just smile and nod…
I am amazed at how drone like people are based on the latest and greatest opinions from the Main Street Media News PR machine .You will see a clip on the news like ,”Real Estate will bottom in first quarter of 2009 “,and than I get the repeat back
to me shortly from people . I than say ,”Wow thats funny because based on the shadow inventory of foreclosures
the bottom might be another 5 years away ,so I’m waiting for them to give property away .” One of my friends just laughs and another friend I talk a lot to ,who wants to invest, keeps getting mad at me ,but keeps sending me listings to look at .I told a number of people 6 months ago that rental rates were going to go down because of supply and demand and they thought I was crazy . Same dude that thought I was crazy just rented a place for 500 less than the rental price 7 or 8 months ago .
The one news program that I actually like I noticed all the advertisers are cleaning supply products ,rather than stock or real estate related products .
What is sad is that a good deal of these people that want to be landlords don’t have a clue about what it really means ,including what the real costs are and what a bitch it would be if you got a renter who lost their job ,or someone who beats up the property . I didn’t like being a landlord . One day I got two calls from two separate rentals I owned in which
bees attacked both places 7 miles away from each other ….
weird . The guy in one place was allergic to bees . You have to respond as a landlord .Or, you will get a call that the water heater just went out . You can’t just say ok I will take care of it in a week ,it’s right now you have to take care of it . Anyway ,with the REIC misquoting real costs on properties (how many tell you what the real tax bill is going to be ) people are sitting ducks . My neighbor who bought one year ago wasn’t even told about a few of the costs and
was shocked to find out after she moved in . I have never seen such bath faith in business as in what is going on these days .
At the Bank some nerd told me I shouldn’t order checks because a thief might get a hold of them . I said to the dude “I want to take all my money out of this bank now because your making me think you have a internal problem with your checks ,by what you said ,”so I took all my money out . Same dude spend thirty minutes trying to sell me bonds that had a long term and low rates.
So,my main point in all these stories is that people don’t know what in the F—k they are doing ,but there is always some sales persons willing to sell them something that isn’t really what they want .
I recall some kool-aid drinkers who, when confronted with the fact that rents and purchase price were out of line, would blithely assert that rents would have to go up. I tried to explain the reasons why the rental housing market was more “efficient” and responded more quickly to supply and demand than the purchase market.
I have at least one coworker friend who I have encouraged to not buy now, and I have been talking so often
(-thank you Ben et al)
about getting a cheaper rent/nicer place that she too is doing the same thing. And she is waiting for the perfect place at what I continue to assure her is coming with a much cheaper price tag.
Thank goodness for ya’ll and CL.
IF we get our 1400 lowered to 1100, I am sending a big check to Ben. If not, we are moving to cheaper digs and check will be delayed by 2 mo but will come for sure!
Discussing real estate is a lot like discussing religion. A lot. People have a lot pinned on their belief in real estate continuing to skyrocket, namely their financial well being. Questioning real estate makes them very uncomfortable and the resultant bad vibes that accompany that.
It’s just like religion. When a true (real estate) believer approaches me, saying I should buy, because I can have the same happiness they are now enjoying and will enjoy, it’s like a missionary approaching me. And if I don’t buy, well, I’m just going to be miserable. If I then note that we’ve had a global meltdown due to overvalued and unaffordable real estate - well, suffice it to say they’re not happy campers.
Best to smile politely and continue with some other conversation. Discussing the reality of real estate is why we come here!
I have found a few ways to placate people on the subject; one, act like “but what do I know, I’m just a blogger with an uneducated opinion.”
I don’t talk about it anymore. I left Phoenix where I said too much and now in San Diego I just don’t say anything, plus prices are going back up on 400K starter homes so what do I know anyway ? lots of old small homes selling for multiple bids in my neighborhood probably about 300 dollars a square foot.
I’m still a deflationist but am watching the FED try to re-inflate they have been moderately succesfull but at what future price ?
Well, the three stages of truth that you present go roughly like this: First it is ridiculed, then it is violently opposed, then at last it is finally accepted.
Fannie, Freddie Woes Hurt Apartments. ~ WSJ
The deteriorating commercial real-estate market is hitting Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, the housing-finance giants that were taken over by the U.S. last year after billions of dollars in losses on residential real estate.
The firms, which together have taken more than $110 billion in capital infusions from the Treasury, stepped up their lending for apartment buildings as the commercial real-estate market peaked, and they are now facing rapidly rising loan losses.
Fannie, which has been more active than Freddie, faces the biggest problems. Its serious delinquency rate, or loans that were 60 days or more past due.
Oh, so apartment buildings are classified as commercial RE and not residential? Is the line between residential and commercial RE really that blurred?
Does that make a house that is rented commercial RE?
Well the LOANS are commercial ones, even if the property is residential.
“Well the LOANS are commercial ones, even if the property is residential.”
This allows beancounters to count their beans any which way they want, to twist statistics in a way that lends support to their agendas.
It depends on the number of units. IIRC, 5 or more make it commercial.
combotechie,
I tried to touch on that yesterday and really haven’t arrived at any sort of a conclusion? When someone buys a single SFH and still has a day job, I’ve always considered that nothing more than a ‘hobby’.
When someone skims ALL their equity and plops 10k down on 20 SFH’s, I’d say they’re at least attempting to run a business.
my aunt and uncle did rentals kinda like that. Unlce was an electrician after the war, his wife worked for union pacific. They buildnt a duplex out in back of their first house, and basically worked on the weekends and holidays building a small collection of rentals some apartment unit a few houses. 40 years later they have done alright for themselves.
Whats funny is i often ask my aunt what she would pay for a property always amazes me cause she will name a pre 2000 price. and of course the folks selling it are just letting it sit for much more than that
combotechie “multi-tenant” has always been considered commercial. And yes, in many states, single family residential rental properties are considered commercial and are taxed and regulated differently than primary residence.
Thank you, ecofeco.
A well oiled efficient machine…
Federal ‘improper spending’ surges to $98bn ~ November 18 2009
FT
The US government wasted almost $100bn in tax dollars in fiscal 2009 – more than a third more than the year before – prompting the White House to pledge a crackdown on fraud and mistakes in federal spending.
So-called “improper payments” by government agencies to individuals, organizations and contractors surged from $72bn in 2008 to $98bn in 2009; 5 per cent of total outlays.
The Obama administration’s critics are likely to seize on the figures as support for their argument that the government has spent too much with little to show for it, especially at a time of record budget deficits.
The White House said the rise in improper payments was in large part due to the sheer increase in government spending, along with stricter measurement of such payments. But Peter Orszag, director of the White House Office of Management and Budget, said that there was nevertheless too much waste.
“We need to protect taxpayer dollars because every dollar that goes to the wrong recipient or in the wrong amount is a dollar that is not available to helping an unemployed worker or to investing in education.”
“The White House said the rise in improper payments was in large part due to the sheer increase in government spending, along with stricter measurement of such payments.”
Which means, of course, more money must be spent by the government to hire people to oversee this sheer increase in government spending.
“We need to protect taxpayer dollars because every dollar that goes to the wrong recipient or in the wrong amount is a dollar that is not available to helping an unemployed worker or to investing in education.”
Every dollar wasted to prop up malinvestments is a dollar that could be used to create new jobs.
Every dollar wasted to prop up malinvestments is a dollar that could be used to create new jobs.
No. The government should not be creating new jobs. Get off the backs of small business and let innovative and hard working people create new jobs. This thought that the government will do a good job at creating jobs just doesn’t seem right to me.
Every dollar borrowed to buy overpriced non productive assets like homes, CDOs, MBSs, and so on, using incentives from the government like PPIP and loans from GSEs, could be used to start small businesses.
This thought that the government will do a good job at creating jobs just doesn’t seem right to me.
It doesn’t seem right because it ISN’T right. Any idiot can create jobs. You or I or anyone here can easily think of 10 things off the top of our heads that we would like someone to do for us, and a price we would be willing to pay. How then can there be unemployment? Government interference and monopolistic lock-up of the job market by “private” entities.
“It doesn’t seem right because it ISN’T right”.
Correct, but sadly a very large number of people look to big nanny gubmint anytime they skin their knee.
+1 LVG, most small business plan I start end abruptly with the analysis of pertinent regulatory items.
No. The government should not be creating new jobs. Get off the backs of small business and let innovative and hard working people create new jobs. This thought that the government will do a good job at creating jobs just doesn’t seem right to me.
What jobs do you see being created by small business in a climate of declining wages rising unemployment and massive debt?
Small business was an engine for growth because of the credit bubble. People started restaurants to feed to people who had free money, they opened boutiques , spas, tanning salons, etc etc. Now that the fantasy money is gone there are and will be no customers.
At what point does massive unemployment and poverty start to tear at the fabric of society??
I’m all for gov creating jobs (no one else will in this climate), I’d use all the money wasted on welfare, unemployment, and bailouts to stimulate job creation by offering massive incentives for improved energy efficiency(insulation, windows, doors), and infrastructure (internet,cable, mass transit, schools, energy generation (especially distributive generation, local solar, and nuclear).
“I’m all for gov creating jobs (no one else will in this climate), I’d use all the money wasted on welfare, unemployment, and bailouts to stimulate job creation by offering massive incentives for improved energy efficiency(insulation, windows, doors), and infrastructure (internet,cable, mass transit, schools, energy generation (especially distributive generation, local solar, and nuclear”).
Great, so how would you get the job done?
Touch welfare and ‘entitlements’ and you won’t draw back a nub, you’ll draw back a stump.
One goal of big government is to create dependents.
Great, so how would you get the job done?
I’d guarantee a job, the middle class would support doing away with welfare and unemployment if people had a way to survive.
It would pay just enough to survive
It would require you to get up every morning get to work on time and produce something. You might get 1 day off for going on job interviews a week.
If they can’t come up with enough public works then you sit your fat butt down on a bike and generate a little electricity. At least we’d cut down on medical costs.
I agree with your ideas. Prisoners in prison right now should be paying their own way also instead of us footing their bill. They have the ability to generate their own electricity, if not then they are s.o.l.
Fecaltime!
Gotta agree wmbz.
Welfare for corporations must go.
“I’d guarantee a job, the middle class would support doing away with welfare and unemployment if people had a way to survive.”
And we’d call each other comrade, and we’d write up a bunch of rules on the wall of the barn, and…
…then you sit your fat butt down on a bike and generate a little electricity.
Ha ha! Love it.
“”And we’d call each other comrade, and we’d write up a bunch of rules on the wall of the barn, and…”"
And what is your solution if unemployment is 20%.
If you lost your job and your children were starving what would you be willing to do to feed them. Are you willing to live with rampant crime and riots and social unrest???
Comrade? So “…promote the general welfare…” is now communist?
Oh dear.
Gotta agree wmbz.
Welfare for corporations must go.
I said something like that late last night and mugsy told me to get lost.
“If you lost your job and your children were starving what would you be willing to do to feed them.”
Plant a garden? Have savings? Food storage? Not waste money whilst employed on movies, eating out 3-5 times a week, alcohol, cigs, etc.? That goes a long way toward solving the problem.
You can talk all you want about the impossibility of caring for a family on minimum wage but the fact of the matter is the poorest of Americans in general are fat, lazy, wasteful, and tend to blame others for misfortune in their lives. How much would it cost to feed a family of 10 rice, beans, and chicken each week?
New immigrant families of many nationalities make the sacrifices necessary to rise from poverty to education and wealth in a single generation. The American dream isn’t a birthright.
“promote the general welfare”
Promote and provide are different words with different meanings. I don’t think the framers used the two verbs just to avoid repetition in the sentence.
Yer right. Promote is more inclusive and provide is more specific.
And dude, while I’ve met plenty of those who are fat and lazy and no more respect for them than you (and at ALL levels of business), most know who pulls the strings and that their money is worth less every year and their jobs are going offshore, never to return and that people are getting rich putting them out of jobs.
Rebellion is a rather rational response when you know the game is rigged against you. That WAS something the founding fathers understood.
I agree with you there.
“..and I have no more respect for them than you do…”
Glad you parsed that the way I meant it and understood I meant no insult to you.
If you lost your job and your children were starving what would you be willing to do to feed them.”
Plant a garden? Have savings? Food storage? Not waste money whilst employed on movies, eating out 3-5 times a week, alcohol, cigs, etc.? That goes a long way toward solving the problem.
Marie Antoinette is that you
Plant a garden,
Pssst most people live in the city and or don’t own enough land to plant a large enough garden to sustain them.
Have savings and food = eat cake
Not waste money money on movies etoh and cigs - Way to generalize every middle class and poor person. There are plenty of people out there who lived conservatively and burned through their savings after job loss, medical illness, or lost it in the market. These people just starve in your fantasy world.
The reality is that if you live next to people starving and they know you have food your little garden will not last long. Oh you have a gun, guess what so do they, and starving people have a way of not fearing death from the barrel of a gun.
I’ve never said people should be left to starve, my problem is that our current version of bread and circuses provides a patrician banquet for those on the dole. How many people could we feed in Africa with gruel for what we currently spend on food stamps in the USA? If you really want equality how about we give each family needing assistance a bag of whole wheat flour, a bottle of cooking oil, and a vitamin supplement each month and use the rest to help those in other nations who are truly starving, and those in our own nation who are truly incapable of caring for themselves.
Who forces those people to stay in the cities? Who forces them to stay in this country? They stay where they are because it is the easiest thing to do. They don’t grow food because that takes work and because uncle Sam gives it to them just for the effort of going down to Walmart. Did you know you can grow potatoes in a trash can, or tomatoes on a window sill?
I don’t speak from the lofty perch of M.A. I’ve worked most of my life with the poor and with very few exceptions those who change their circumstance are those who learn to help themselves.
If someone comes and kills me and takes my food storage so be it. My point isn’t a primer on how to survive doomsday, I’m trying to say that we as a people waste too much and ignorantly expect that life will never throw us a curve ball. I will continue to try to be prepared for those hard times that may or may not come. You are free to continue to walk the high wire over the safety net currently provided by our local, state, and federal governments.
Hey NYCboy:
I got it, have the Guv fund senior and nursing home entertainment. I will dj 5 days a week, in various centers around the city, the guv gets good value for its money. I get a job, pay taxes and make people happy.
But otherwise agree small business pays way too much in taxes fees and it get passed on as higher prices, and there is no way to compete with a national chain if it opens close by.
Also my idea is reverse tax credits. base credits on the amount of workers you hire with health insurance who work 2nd 3rd shift holidays and weekends. Zero credits if everyone has to work 9-5 M-F.
For example we need in NYC 100 more businesses like Bloomberg which has over 10,000 employees more then half in NYC. and most are on some shift schedule.
Interstate highways? Dams? TVA? Water and sewer? The Internet? (no, it wasn’t Al Gore. It was DARPA) Small business loans? And not just jobs, but safety on the job as well.
And as much as I’m not fond of the weapons manufacturers, they do provide thousands of jobs.
Now who was it that offshored jobs?
Most of those rules and regulations exist because honestly, if they didn’t, honest businessmen couldn’t compete with the thieves and crooks. You think it’s bad now?
Now who was it that offshored jobs?
ooh ooh I know! pick me pick meeeee!
Socialists?
ooh ooh I know! pick me pick meeeee!
ya looking for trouble?
Signs point to a lukewarm recovery
STALLING AFTER SUMMER
Washington Post ~ November 18, 2009
The economic recovery continues to be weak, as data released Tuesday show that the expansion of the nation’s industrial sector slowed to a crawl in October.
Separate reports, meanwhile, showed that wholesale prices rose slightly in October and that home builders’ confidence was unchanged from the previous month. Taken together, the three reports show just how tepid the economic recovery may turn out to be.
Industrial production rose 0.1 percent in October, the Federal Reserve said Tuesday, down from rates of expansion that had averaged 0.9 percent in the previous three months. And even that weaker-than-expected number was boosted by chilly fall weather, which led to a strong rise in output by utilities. Manufacturing output actually declined slightly, by 0.1 percent, which reflected in part automakers dialing back production after the expiration of the “Cash for Clunkers” program. Output of automobiles fell 1.7 percent after an 8.1 percent rise in September.
Those numbers signal that the burst of activity in the nation’s factories that began over the summer has given way to a much more difficult slog out of recession.
More of that “unexpected” stuff happening…
Housing starts, permits fall sharply in October.
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - New U.S. housing starts in October unexpectedly fell to their lowest level in six months, weighed down by a sharp decline in construction activity for both single-family and multi-family dwellings, a government report showed on Wednesday.
Reuters -
The Commerce Department said housing starts dropped 10.6 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 529,000 units, the lowest level since April and the percentage drop was the biggest since January. Analysts polled by Reuters had expected housing starts to rise to 600,000 units. September’s housing starts were revised upwards to 592,000 units from the previously reported 590,000 units.
Groundbreaking for single-family homes fell 6.8 percent last month to an annual rate of 476,000 units, the lowest since May. Starts for the volatile multifamily segment tumbled 34.6 percent to a 53,000 annual pace, extending the previous month’s slump.
Compared to October last year, housing starts dropped 30.7 percent.
Oh, bugger…
The Wall Street Journal
* NOVEMBER 18, 2009, 8:51 A.M. ET
Housing Starts Unexpectedly Fall
BY JEFF BATER
WASHINGTON — Home construction fell sharply in October, an unexpected drop that erased months of gains as uncertainty over renewal of a tax credit for home buyers increased builders’ caution.
Meanwhile, U.S. consumer prices continued to rise at a moderate pace in October, indicating that a slow economic recovery is keeping inflation contained.
Housing starts decreased 10.6% to a seasonally adjusted 529,000 annual rate compared to the prior month, the Commerce Department said Wednesday.
The report also said building permits slipped. Both single-family groundbreakings and apartment construction tumbled.
Economists surveyed by Dow Jones Newswires forecast a 1.7% increase in October …
Voodoo economists, they mean.
How did this correspond with normal seasonal trends?
Starts ALWAYS crater in the winter.
The Wall Street Journal
* AHEAD OF THE TAPE
* NOVEMBER 18, 2009
The Good and Bad of U.S. Housing Market
BY MARK GONGLOFF
The good news about home construction, at least from a pricing perspective, is that fewer houses are being built. The bad news: There still are too many houses.
The Census Bureau is due to release October housing-starts data on Wednesday. Economists estimate starts rose to an annualized pace of 600,000 units from 590,000 in September.
That level of starts would be down 21% from a year ago and down 74% …
…expect the unexpected.
That was Houston’s motto one year.
Whitney? or Sam?
Damn! There’s that “unexpected” word again!
Do you think the captain of the Titantic used the word unexpected when the ship hit the iceberg?
Bleeding Christ! You DID smell ice, didn’t ya?
My guess would be
“What F-ing iceberg?!”
Followed shortly by
“Oh $hit”
U.S. consumers expect deep holiday discounts.
CHICAGO (Reuters) - U.S. consumers say they are not likely to shop without the big price cuts they saw last year in a grim sign to retailers seeking to limit margin-sapping discounts this holiday season, a new survey said on Tuesday.
Almost 70 percent of consumers surveyed said they wanted to see discounts of at least 50 percent before they would buy something for the holidays, according to the survey by America’s Research Group.
The survey, which used questions supplied by Reuters, showed 32.8 percent of 1,000 consumers interviewed want a discount of 50 percent before they buy, 19.6 percent want to see a 60-percent price cut and 15.2 percent are holding out for 70 percent off.
An additional 31.2 percent want to see at least 40 percent off.
“If retailers don’t blink, there won’t be a Christmas season in those stores,” said Britt Beemer, founder of America’s Research Group. “It’s that simple.”
Everyday I keep reading about various retailers leaking their black friday adds, pathetic.
I wont be spending any money on black friday.Wont even bother to shop at all that day.I will be at home surfing the net.
Bingo.
Even better is using Tanksgiving Thursday to drive to the relatives and then celebrate the holiday on Friday while getting your fill of college football.
I’m gald I brought that innovation to my in-laws. Now hopefully I can convince them to go to Wal-mart at 5.00am to get a tv because right now their only tv is a 20″ model from 1982.
And it still works! “Don’t laugh, it’s paid for.”
So is the 2002 (or there abouts) Sony Trinatron 27 inch I got for $25 off Craigs list.
I hear ya. The season is such a turn off for me that I’ve stocked up on groceries to avoid going to any store until January - excepting for the occassional produce run.
The leaked Black Friday ads are indeed pathetic. Some Madison Ave. pr*ck must have had the idea that the consumers would think they are “special” if they are recipients of “leaked” information.
Hmmm. 42″ LCD TVs so cheap you can wallpaper a room with them.
The local VW dealer has huge banners on the car lot reading “Free 42 Inch Flat Panel TV with every purchase!”
The sad thing is, it will probably generate a few sales.
CL seems a much easier way to do both.Cheaper too.
See GS people are not all evil after all, only 99%.
$500 Million and Apology From Goldman
How much good will can an apology — and half a billion dollars — buy? A lot, Goldman Sachs is hoping.
After first staunchly defending its outsize profits and pay, and then bristling at calls for restraint in these tough economic times, Goldman is trying a new tack: It is apologizing for past mistakes that led to the financial crisis — and sharing at least some of its riches.
A little more than a week after Goldman’s chairman and chief executive drew fire for saying the Wall Street giant was “doing God’s work,” the bank said Tuesday that it would spend $500 million — or about 3 percent of the $16.7 billion it has so far set aside to pay its employees this year — to help thousands of small businesses recover from the recession.
At the same time, the executive, Lloyd C. Blankfein, also showed a bit of humility, acknowledging at a conference in New York that Goldman had made mistakes, and that it was sorry. “We participated in things that were clearly wrong and have reason to regret,” he said. “We apologize.”
It was the clearest public statement of regret yet from Goldman, and a few hours later, as if to underscore that apology, the bank said that it was working with its largest shareholder, the billionaire investor Warren E. Buffett, to help 10,000 small businesses. The bank will offer them business and management education, mentoring and access to capital.
Liar, liar, pants on fire…
The Wall Street Journal
* NOVEMBER 18, 2009
Report Rebuts Goldman Claim
BY CARRICK MOLLENKAMP AND SERENA NG
For more than a year, Goldman Sachs Group Inc. has maintained that it wouldn’t have suffered material losses had the government allowed one of its major trading partners, American International Group Inc., to collapse.
A government report throws cold water on that claim.
Goldman was among the largest beneficiaries of a decision by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York to bail out insurance giant AIG in September 2008 at the height of the financial crisis. A revamped rescue package in November led to Goldman and 15 other banks being paid in full for $62 billion worth of insurance contracts …
It was da man dat was keepin’ us down! Gotta get dat bad ol’ government offa our backs!
If the government hadn’t backstopped AIG in the first place there would be no malfeasance for said government to subsequently discover.
Oh?
On October 14, 2004 the New York State Office of Attorney General Eliot Spitzer announced that it had commenced a civil action against Marsh & McLennan Companies for steering clients to preferred insurers with whom the company maintained lucrative payoff agreements, and for soliciting rigged bids for insurance contracts from the insurers. The Attorney General announced in a release that two AIG executives pleaded guilty to criminal charges in connection with this illegal course of conduct. In early May 2005, AIG restated its financial position and issued a reduction in book value of USD $2.7 billion, a 3.3 percent reduction in net worth.
They had also gone WAY out on a limb with underwriting derivatives insuring mortgage-linked securities. Mortgage linked securities created by…. wait for it…. Goldman Sachs.
My point is, they should have let AIG and all the other TBTF go quietly into the night instead of ballooning the deficit and striving to turn the dollar into toilet paper. Sorry I wasn’t more clear.
I agree. 100%. But it wouldn’t have been quite.
It looks like the real problem was that if the global financial collapse had been worse, we could have been looking at WW3.
And while I HATE that those SOBs put us into that position, there are very real and deadly consequences among nations when big money is at stake.
“quiet”
No, I’m NOT feeling well. Allergies? Cold? Not sure.
Oh well…
Feel better soon, eco.
ya’ll get rest, eat right, and eat your vitavegavitamins ala Lucy!
Soaking in hot water w/ Epsoms salts will steam out the toxins.
Along with a good hot cup of water/courvoisier shot, and lemon twist.
Jus sayin - keep safe eco and everyone.
Seems according to the msm, over 50% of adults say they won’t take the flu shots.
An Apology? Are you f.g kidding me? Oh sure, that makes me feel so much better.
But you have to wonder why? GS is not exactly known for their humility. They’ve got plenty of money.
So what is their motivation in even MAKING an apology? Seriously. What’s REALLY going on?
What’s REALLY going on?
‘xactly.
The mafia always likes to find small ways in which they can “give back” so the people feel better about being robbed. It’s an old trick. Who can forget the Sopranos Christmas episode when they gave out toys to all the local kids? It’s the same concept.
Don’t forget Wal-mart putting solar panels on the roof…
Or Wal-mart supporting obamacare. Gotta kiss the ring!
No, that’s not posturing and kissing up. All businesses — including your precious small business — would like nothing more than to unload the cost of health insurance. At the moment, I don’t know what Obamacare means exactly, so I have to leave it at that.
If it means i am too rich for welfare but too poor to afford my own policy the guv will cover me for maybe a sliding scale or a small co payment…really that’s all we need ..
————————
At the moment, I don’t know what Obamacare means exactly, so I have to leave it at that.
When they showed Blankfein on Bloomberg this morning he looked like he was in an old episode of “Kung Fu” because his hands were waving hard enough to achieve take off speed as he tried to explain away GS’s good deeds. Why don’t they just hire a few hundred more security guards at their headquarters and stop worrying about turds like us…
When they give their bonus checks to a worthwhile cause, I’ll accept that apology.
Job market in northern Colorada forecast to worsen:
http://www.coloradoan.com/article/20091118/BUSINESS/911180328/CSU+student+employment+study++Drop+in+jobs+to+worsen
Yikes, how many people knew this? So if you had gold ETF GLD or silver SLV for more than one year and sell at a profit, you won’t get the long-term capital gain tax rate but have to pay regular income tax rate on it. I would assume the same applies to physical gold and silver?
Marketwatch (11/18/2009) - Tax code treats gold, silver and precious-metals ETFs as collectibles, not capital gains. Sell them at a profit, and you could be taxed at hefty rates.
Buy & sell at local coin shows. Deal on a cash basis only. That keeps Uncle Sam out of the game
Large coin dealers are required to file paperwork with the feds if you buy/sell $10,000 or more at once.
If you buy or sell $9,999 worth, cash only, and throw out the invoice, you just may forget what the price was.
If you buy a 1998-dated gold coin, it does not necessarily mean you bought that coin in 1998. I bought one with that date this year.
There’re usually a bunch of dealers buying and selling gold & silver coins. No need to spend all your cash at one dealer. I never ran into any trouble with the dealers or under cover IRS agents. I wonder if the IRS is “on” to coin shows. So far I’ve seen no evidence but it wouldn’t surprise me.
Yeah! Like the gov is going to get any of Aladinsane’s cash for the pile he made on his gold. Only smart way is to stash physically held PM’s. Safety deposit box may be a bit risky but better than confiscation by taxation; there are other countries, you know.
Just purchase all of your GLD and SLV through your IRA. I consider it to be a long term inflation/economic catastrophe hedge which fits into my retirement planning.
As an FYI
I heard a radio ad for a mortgage company this morning. All the usual stuff (low rates, great service, etc.) and then…
They said they do not take poor credit risk customers and a minimum of 10% is required for all mortgages!
First time I had ever heard it.
That is progress!
Way OT…..
Something bicyclist/MX may enjoy, incredible balance.
http://link.brightcove.com/services/player/bcpid1137883380?bctid=21337502001
that was siCk
I posted this a few months ago. That was one great balancing act.
Something bicyclist/MX may enjoy, incredible balance.
Thanks. Now I really feel inadequate.
Ahhh, Yeah, Andrew Leonard at Salon linked to that a few months ago. Absolutly amazing. it’s like his tires are filled with helium or something.
although I found myself thinking, ‘wow, that dude has way too much time on his hands’
LOL, more like sour grapes cause I sure as hell know I couldn’t do that!
Dollar Falls as Bullard Says Fed Rate May Not Rise Until 2012
Nov. 18 (Bloomberg) — The dollar dropped against the euro as Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis President James Bullard said policy makers may not start to raise interest rates until early 2012, making U.S. assets less attractive to investors.
Sterling slid from almost a two-month high against the euro after minutes of this month’s Bank of England meeting showed the vote to increase the bond-purchase program by 25 billion pounds ($42 billion) wasn’t unanimous. The Chilean peso rose to the strongest level since July 2008 after copper, the country’s largest export, rallied.
“Over the long term, the dollar is on a continuous decline,” said Sandeep Malhotra, who oversees $10 billion as a managing director at Clariden Leu in Zurich, in an interview on Bloomberg Television. “Given the constraints U.S. consumers are going to face going forward, given the huge debt burdens, we believe the structural divergence in growth will continue to play out.”
The dollar slid 0.5 percent to $1.4951 per euro at 9:38 a.m. in New York, from $1.4876 yesterday. The euro increased 0.4 percent to 133.32 yen, from 132.77. The dollar traded at 89.17 yen, compared with 89.25.
2012, that’s kiddie stuff. How long has BOJ effectively been ZIRP?
They consulted the Mayans, who said that the mid-December 2012 FOMC meeting would be a good time to plan the first rate rise.
What’s even funnier is I can believe it!
Prof. Robert Reich was Labor Secretary in the Clinton Administration. He keeps his finger on the pulse of trade between China and the United States.
“China’s capital spending is on the way to exceeding that of the U.S., but its consumer spending is barely a sixth as large. Chinese companies are plowing their rising profits back into more productive capacity—additional factories, more equipment, new technologies. China’s massive $600 billion stimulus package has been directed at further enlarging China’s productive capacity rather than consumption.”
So what’s happening in the U.S.? We’re sitting around waiting for the good old days of easy money and high consumption to return. Mainstream economists are baffled. The Obama Administration is grasping at straws. A mild sense of desperation is creeping across the population.
Its hard to compete with labor rates and complete lack of enviromental restraints in China.
You know how it is. Things like this go until they can’t anymore.
China is making their big malinvestment which will come crashing down pretty soon.
Hello James,
Why do you think it is a bad idea for China to invest in their capacity to produce? It seems to me that is a good way to become self-sufficient and produce additional income on what is not needed.
Fecaltime!
Fecaltime,
If you tinker in the markets and stimulate artificial demand you get malinvestment. You end up with a bunch of stuff you don’t need. In our case it is housing. In China’s case it will probably be a bunch of factories.
You also end up with solvency problems because of massive amounts of misallocated capital.
These tends to make work on things you do need more difficult. Perhaps China needs improvements in housing, healthcare, energy and transportation. Most of the people have experience in manufacturing.
So the people have a skills mismatch. You have excess capacity in manufacturing facilities and you’ve tied up your capital in the resulting banking mess and liquidation.
Here in the US we have skills mismatch as well. We are chocked full of financial analyst types and construction types. Also lots of service industry people. They don’t fit into manufacturing industry very well. We have excess houses and lots of problems with insolvency. Even with the TARP and all the billions throw at the markets, go and withdraw support from the banks and watch them squeal. Even better, go and lower the FDIC limit to 100K again!
I guess we haven’t seen a retailer like wallmart get seriously squeezed yet. I expect it quite soon though. People go through a season with minimal junk purchases…. then whoa. Eventually that all will blow up in China’s face.
Greetings James,
Thank you for your explanation regarding China and it’s likely excess capacity. Your comparing it to our ridiculous glut of housing does drive the point home. I certainly would like to see our govt. allocate the money in more productive places.
So when all is said and done it seems China will have too many factories, many of which will be idle. That is a problem, but it seems to me that they can always change a few machines and create whatever IS needed at the time. What do you think? In addition, a nation with their enormous and cheap labor coupled with the factory power to mass produce many things would be the leader in the world. Please tell me why you believe they are not setting themselves up to be the next economic superpower.
Thanks,
Fecaltime!
Making lousy cheap imitations of other peoples stuff can hardly make one a superpower, ever.
China’s massive $600 billion stimulus package has been directed at further enlarging China’s productive capacity rather than consumption.”
So what’s happening in the U.S.?
Who the heck is going to buy the output of their increased manufacturing capacity?
Wasn’t most of China’s income derived from people buying stuff on credit? Credit that the Chinese helped supply?
So they loaned us money to buy stuff from them so they could take the money back and build more factories with it? Wouldn’t they have been the same off just building the factories?
I’m so confused…
Barry breaks on to the comedy stage…
Obama: Too much debt could fuel double-dip recession.
BEIJING, Nov 18 (Reuters) - President Barack Obama gave his sternest warning yet about the need to contain rising U.S. deficits, saying on Wednesday that if government debt were to pile up too much, it could lead to a double-dip recession.
With the U.S. unemployment rate at 10.2 percent, Obama told Fox News his administration faces a delicate balance of trying to boost the economy and spur job creation while putting the economy on a path toward long-term deficit reduction.
His administration was considering ways to accelerate economic growth, with tax measures among the options to give companies incentives to hire, Obama said in the interview with Fox conducted in Beijing during his nine-day trip to Asia.
“It is important though to recognize if we keep on adding to the debt, even in the midst of this recovery, that at some point, people could lose confidence in the U.S. economy in a way that could actually lead to a
He’s stark, staring insane, pushing a trillion dollar health care bill, shamnasty, bailouts right and left, etc.
Of course, he’s just parroting some Chinese line.
Man, this guy makes a great ventriloquist dummy. And I do mean dummy.
And here i cant even beg for an intern job with Little Steven and renegade nation because i am too old.
“President Barack Obama gave his sternest warning yet about the need to contain rising U.S. deficits, saying on Wednesday that if government debt were to pile up too much, it could lead to a double-dip recession.”
Fed Gov budget for 2010
Estimated receipts: $2.381 trillion
Planned expenditures: $3.55 trillion
Spending 150% of income.
That’s easy to solve. Just have the Fed add the difference to its balance sheet.
Fed Gov budget for 2010
Estimated receipts: $2.381 trillion
Planned expenditures: $3.55 trillion
“1.2 terabucks! Where am I going to get 1.2 terabucks??? Great Scott!!!
Arizona bubble era subdivision may lose power to streetlights:
“The City of Surprise will conduct a final meeting Thursday to encourage property owners in Sierra Montana- Parcel 14 to apply for a Streetlight Improvement District or face power loss of the neighborhood street lights, starting Dec. 7.
Extensive efforts to obtain the required number of signatures to form a district have not been successful. Surprise cannot create the district without the signatures of 50 percent plus one of the property owners in Parcel 14…”
http://www.yourwestvalley.com/news/district-10380-lights-owners.html
A sidebar item not in the online version mentions that the area’s city councilman personally failed to gather sufficient signatures from parcel owners. Of course, this subdivision has many vacant houses in various stages of foreclosure. Plus, rental residents would not be able to sign on for the special tax district. Even 100% of actual owner-occupants would probably be insufficient to meet the 50%-plus one threshold. Good luck on out of state owners or lender-owned parcels.
Arizona bubble era subdivision may lose power to streetlights:
I find this exceedingly satisfying.
In the early ’80’s when I moved to Tucson and became aware of the rampant destruction of the desert being committed in the name of “growth” I was sickened.
Part of the affront was that as more subdivisions were built, less and less of the night sky was visible because of the increase in street lights.
This is truly lovely.
Lets hear it for dark skys! I’ll take the Milky Way over street lights any day, er,…Night!
Have to drive out to the Joshua Tree National Park to get dark skies and millions of stars w/o light pollution.
Far away.
Isn’t it LV that can be seen from the Moon/outerspace?
Surprise, you lost your lights!
RESEARCH TRIANGLE PARK, N.C. (AP) - Cell phone handset maker Sony Ericsson is closing its North American headquarters in North Carolina as part of a global consolidation that will cut about 2,000 jobs.
The News & Observer of Raleigh reported the company broke the news to employees in Research Triangle Park early Wednesday.
The closure is part of a company strategy to cut its worldwide staff of 10,000 by 20 percent. Spokeswoman Stacy Doster says the joint venture between Sweden’s LM Ericsson and Japan’s Sony Corp. is closing several sites around the world to consolidate research and development.
The 8-year-old company has 425 workers left at its North American headquarters after shedding hundreds of jobs in the past year.
I gotta stop reading this stuff. Its making me feel depressed.
Ouch.
Being in telecom - I had a couple of old friends that went to work there - no clue if they’re still there or not since we’ve gotten out of touch.
Nooo! All the geeks from Norfolk/Virginia Beach need to move to Raleigh cause our area is lame. No one is allowed to close in Raleigh!
Gold is getting frothy ~ Bob Moriarty
Nov 18, 2009
We live in a world that is totally insane. We have one US government agency buying worthless paper from another US government agency and the public nods their heads in agreement just as if it makes perfect sense. It doesn’t make any sense at all; it’s like taking water from one end of a swimming pool and carrying it down to the other end and believing you are making a difference.
Pundits are proclaiming an end to a most mild recession, deeming it “Green Shoots.” Are they color blind? How about “Black Shoots?” How about 22.1% unemployment if you use the real world measurements derived by John Williams of ShadowStats.com?
The general stock market has rocketed higher since March of this year. It’s way overdone and due for a monster crash. This isn’t a mild recession; it’s a World Class Greatest Depression. Once the Chinese discover the way the US has Madoff with their very real goods in exchange for pretty pieces of paper that can never buy anything real, the game will be over.
According to the BIS, the notional value of OTC Derivatives increased by 10% or $57.2 trillion dollars to an incredible $604 trillion in the six months to June of 2009. So we have an annualized gain of 22% in the midst of the Greatest Depression in history. That’s insane.
In 1998 the head of the CFTC saw a looming disaster on the horizon. OTC derivates were up to the incredible amount of $27 trillion. That number should have been alarming to anyone thinking about it. The GDP of the world was under $50 trillion. How could you have unregulated financial bets almost half of the value of the goods and services produced yearly in the world? Brooksley Born failed in her attempt to regulate Derivatives. Now derivatives grow twice as much in a year as world GDP and no one gets it.
Gold and silver are getting frothy. Almost as frothy as December of 2004 when the precious metals began a sharp correction. A few people saw it coming and said so.
The dollar is dying but not dead. If you drop a cat off a building high enough, even a dead cat will bounce. The dollar is dead but due for a bounce with the impending credit crisis just around the corner.
The precious metals shares have me baffled. If you look at a chart of the XAU over gold, the shares have been at record lows compared to the price of gold since September of 2008. With a $120 rise in gold in the last two months, gold shares have barely moved. So they are still cheap in historical terms but weaker than I would imagine based on the POG.
The general stock market is beyond frothy. It’s totally bonkers and only the fools of the world are long the stock market.
Well that sums up thoughts fairly nicely I think.
I wonder how often they (FED & gubermint) can reinflate busted bubbles. Stock market 2000 and housing market 2008. The waves seem to be getting considerably larger in size but so far they always managed to keep the ship from sinking while simultaneously setting us up for the next disaster. Interesting times…
Gold and silver are getting frothy. Almost as frothy as December of 2004 when the precious metals began a sharp correction. A few people saw it coming and said so.
Ooooo… Kaaaayyy…
If 455 -> 415, followed by a run up to 475 a few months later is what he terms a “sharp correction”, then I’m all in.
However I do agree gold is obviously frothy. Gold by its nature is frothy. You just don’t do short-term gold trading unless:
A. You’re a day trader intimate with technicals and willing to sacrifice life-years worth of stress for a few $$, or
B. You’re incredibly stupid.
Right on wmbz.
Today I got a announcement in the mail that my Insurance company was going to lower my rates . Did the word get out about how the
Insurance Companies were gouging and price fixing and have big monopolies ? Yep ,lets have a free market system but give advantages to the Chosen industries that bribe Politicians .
I think it is about time that there is a crack down on the new tendency of Insurance Companies to put every exclusion in the book in their policies on items that they think might end up in a claim . What is the purpose of insurance if they won’t cover items that tend to be claim items ? Than to be forced into insurance such as car insurance and home insurance and now Health Insurance ,just so Insurance Companies can collect ,but not really cover ,is a scam .
If the government is going to force people to buy coverage ,than the government by the same token should set rules on what the insurance companies have to cover . Enough of these one-sided stacked deck
contracts. It’s no different than toxic loans that were being sold during the housing mania .
Don’t tell me I’m nuts either because within 3 months of purchasing some kind of Insurance ,than you start to get notifications of the
exclusions and changes ,and you have already paid up front . It’s a racket . If anything is changed than you should be entitled to a rebate
but do you ever see them doing that ?
Looks like our Chinese Masters have told Obama if the $ index goes any lower they will yank his credit card. Rahm and Obama are now talking about lowering the deficit next year. Here comes the crash.
LOng TWM.
Obama managed to look like an ass in foreign relations again. His Asia trip achieved nothing and was a waste of time.
All in all, its a good thing for us to reduce the deficit though. Probably means I’ll be out of a job real soon.
Obama managed to look like an ass in foreign relations again.
…
All in all, its a good thing for us to reduce the deficit though.
Could you be just a little more contradictory - you’re failing at dittoism.
If I read it right, the weasel-words were “next year” and that probably means the federal fiscal year beginning in October 2010. IOW, just time for election-year campaigning. And watch out for the grandest fake of all - the feds call any reduction of a planned increase a “cut.” “The section’s budget was going to rise from $100M to $120 M under the original budget proposal and now it will end up at (never say “rise to” at this point) only $108M, so it has been CUT by $12M.” Reminds me in a way of the funny Ally bank commercials.
And if the credit card is yanked who will buy their crap?
Exactly, all bark and no bite. They keep loaning US money and we’ll keep spending it until the feces hits the fan which might take longer than many think.
It’s already hitting the fan, but the smell and the flecks on everything are easier to work around and ignore than we thought they’d be. Maybe when people start getting sick we’ll do something about it.
It’s already hitting the fan,but the smell and the flecks on everything…
Can we just flush this metaphor for now, okay?
I remember that same feeling about the hosuing bubble. Then feeling very very ill watching Freddie, Fannie dive in and then FHA get dragged in.
Yep when completely skip a treasury auction for a month or two I’ll start to believe them. I believe this talk is all part of a coordinated effort to keep inflation fears in place. The Central Banks need to keep things balanced, ie a balanced percentage of the people fearing inflation vs deflation. A masssive movement in one direction or the other spells disaster. If the fear type tips slightly out of balance they just ramp up news releases that shift the fear in the other direction.
And if the credit card is yanked who will buy their crap?
“MAD”
Mutually Assured Deflation
Just the other day some wag on another site was talking up how Opie would suddenly be a deficit hawk in next year’s State of the Union address. Maybe there’s something to that after all.
LONDON – The battle against global warming could be helped if the world slowed population growth by making free condoms and family planning advice more widely available, the U.N. Population Fund said Wednesday.
The agency did not recommend countries set limits on how many children people should have, but said: “Women with access to reproductive health services … have lower fertility rates that contribute to slower growth in greenhouse gas emissions.”
but who is going to sit in the seats and contribute to the clergy, where will the next wave of suicide bombers come from??
Does that mean a carbon tax can be slapped on the Vatican?
Correlation != Causation
I’ve got a better idea for population control here in the USA. How about we limit payouts of AFDC to one child per unwed mother? They are free to continue reproducing at will, but the monthly check won’t increase with each new bundle of joy.
If you subsidize something you get more of it.
I’m OK with that if
we also provide free birthcontrol preferrably long term implants or tubals.
We also have to penalize the irresponsible fathers of these children.
Why tubals? What the heck is the matter with getting your bits snipped? Yours is w/o anesthesia. Simple job..but then ‘you guys’ are always such a delicate bunch. Sissies.
Misplaced anger - I’m not mandating birth control I’m suggesting the gov offer it for free. I’m A-OK with free male bit snippin.
Misplaced anger
Guess I have been getting to many emails from my childhood ‘friends’/neanderthals. Didn’t mean to sound harsh.
Dude DD:
we have over a MILLION couples who cant have kids because the pluming doesn’t work right. We need to be proactive in getting more babies ready for a quick adoption if the bio-mom and dad are such losers.
I’m with you on that dj, we have only girls and would have loved to raise a boy. We can’t adopt a baby because we already have kids.
Abortion should be last in a long string of choices.
A couple of very minor observations from a weekend trip to Charleston, SC. Went to visit some folks there who are just fun to be with and not oh, so impressed with themselves - as are so many people there.
On I-95, I noticed far more blank “advertise here” billboards than I recall seeing before, even during the ’70s when tourism was pounded down here.
Went to dinner at a trendy little restaurant in a trendy little strip on the waterfront. I was surprised when the server told us that the entire wine list was 50%-off. First time I can recall that. I wish those restaurants that want my business would offer corkage at $5-10 and I’d be happy. But this 50% discount was pretty tempting. With the crappy summer weather gone, I’d think that now is prime time for visitors, thus the heavy discount could reflect some real hurt in the local economy.
Hey chip I lived in Charleston left 4 months before hugo hit. Been back for a few vistis
I noticed of course lots of new high priced condozes and look at Daniels Island. man that was empty backwoods geechie people until the built the expressway overhead.
I lived mostly in North Charleston and Mt Pleasant which was easy to get to where i was working.
I hear NC is now a super ghetto and a crime rate to match.
This is a real boo-hiss.
Equal Opportunity Stoners:
http://www.ajc.com/news/nation-world/somali-woman-stoned-to-202637.html?imw=Y
At least they don’t discriminate.
Well yes they do discriminate.
The man gets whipped and lives and the woman gets stoned to death. Sure looks like the ultimate discrimination to me.
Details, details…
Hi SanFranQL:
Glad to hear Mom is doing OK. I got a health gig going on too. I have Fred Flintstone’s liver…
Anyway, and seriously, where has Oly been? I have been off awhile, and really haven’t looked at the old ones, but seems like she ain’t around no more.
I asked earlier, but really didn’t get a reply…
P.S. If Da’ Bear and Princess A (great writer she is), get this, Hi back to ya guys!
Ya Bud,
ATE-UP
I asked earlier, but really didn’t get a reply…
Hey 8Man.
No Oly since 10/27…
lavi d:
Why that date?
If you would, I would appreciate knowing a little more, but if not, I understand too.
Thanks lavi,
Greg
lavi: I looked re archives, and her last reply was innocuous. ( OLY GAL!! How do you spell…inoxku us)?
Title: I Love/Miss/Wonder, blah, etc., Oly
Produced by: Brian Eno
Recorded: Abbey Road II
Produced/Mixed: The Record Plant
“My sensible heart wonders where you are,
Mr. Dylan said; “On a Shooting Star”,
A Shooting Star… far or near,
All things must pass, but our hearts think you are dear!
Come back Oly, we miss you. Hell, I’m dead, that’s the least you can do, ya know?
Shorty is not himself. Of course, what does that mean anyway, right?
Sorry you are dealing with liver issues.
Iodine at yahoo groups dot com. Ask away.
If you would, I would appreciate knowing a little more, but if not, I understand too.
According to the HBB Comment Search
Hi ATE:
Ben should have her email, i know i give him my real one when i post, and i’ll bet most of you do to.
Yeah we miss Oly her conjugation of words was awe inspiring.
———————————————-
Complex conjugation, the operation which multiplies the imaginary part of a complex number by −1;
SFBayg. Glad mom is doing better!
WASHINGTON (AP) — A group of House Democrats are stepping up demands for greater transparency from the Federal Reserve after reports that the Fed mishandled the bailout of insurance giant American International Group Inc.
The group, led by Rep. Elijah Cummings, D-Md., wants a congressional review of the Federal Reserve system. They want to allow congressional audits of the Fed as part of financial rules being debated by the House Financial Services and Senate Banking committees, according to a letter Wednesday to the committees’ chairmen.
“Real financial regulatory reform cannot occur without an examination into the structure” of the Federal Reserve system, the letter says.
Details on which banks benefited from AIG’s bailout never would have become known without demands from Congress, and a recent report shows flaws in the Fed’s structure as a regulator, the lawmakers write.
The letter follows sharp criticism Monday of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York and Federal Reserve in a report from Neil Barofsky, the special inspector general for the $700 billion financial bailout fund. Barofsky said the Fed may have paid billions more than necessary to banks including Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and Merrill Lynch, now part of Bank of America Corp., to cancel AIG’s contracts with them.
Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner, then president of the New York Fed, signed off on decisions that weakened the government’s bargaining position and made it difficult to pay the banks less than face value for securities AIG had insured, the report says.
http://mail.live.com/default.aspx?wa=wsignin1.0
Reduced $550,000.
Feedblitz blog on Chicago properties.
Roscoe Village.
15,000 Off Shore Criminals turn themselves in to IRS
Tue Nov 17, 2009 2:53 pm (PST)
MIAMI - More than 14,700 U.S. taxpayers came forward to disclose billions in offshore bank accounts in 70 countries under a voluntary Internal Revenue Service program allowing most to avoid criminal prosecution as long as they pay what they owe, IRS officials said Tuesday.
A flood of people came forward in the last days before the amnesty program expired Oct. 15, IRS Commissioner Doug Shulman said. The final total far surpasses the number who disclose offshore accounts in a typical year — about 100 — and comes amid a broad U.S. crackdown on international tax evasion at Swiss bank UBS AG and other institutions.
“To put it simply, this is a historic milestone for the nation’s hardworking taxpayers,” Shulman said in a conference call from Washington.
The total in taxes, interest and penalties collected from those in the voluntary disclosure program will be in the
“BILLIONS of dollars,” Shulman said. The disclosures involved accounts on every continent but Antarctica.
Taxpayers flocked to the amnesty program after the U.S. reached an agreement in August with the Swiss government and UBS to obtain names of 4,450 U.S. taxpayers believed to be hiding assets in secret bank accounts. Earlier this year, UBS paid a $780 million penalty under a deferred prosecution agreement filed in a Florida federal court that included disclosure of an additional 150 names.
Seven of those people have been charged criminally, with at least two getting sentenced to prison time.
Shulman said the combination of the UBS disclosures and the amnesty program have fundamentally changed the offshore tax landscape, particularly in Switzerland where bank secrecy was the tradition for centuries.
“It shows we are serious about piercing the veil of bank secrecy,” he said. “The whole game has changed.”
END
As far as I’m concerned they are traitors to the United States
capitalism schmapilism- Now the corps need to pay up.
Fed’s Bullard Says Shrinking Reserves Key to Exit
Published: Wednesday, 18 Nov 2009 | 12:18 PM ET
A senior Federal Reserve official said Wednesday that the U.S. central bank may start tightening financial conditions by selling assets it has accumulated rather than raising interest rates.
“The market’s focus on interest rates is disappointing, given quantitative easing,” St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank President James Bullard told a group of bankers. “Markets should be focusing on quantitative monetary policy rather than interest rate policy.”
“The main challenge for monetary policy going forward will be how to adjust the asset purchase program without generating inflation while interest rates are near zero,” Bullard said, adding that the inflation outlook hinges on what the Fed does with this program.
The Fed has bought $300 billion in longer-term U.S. government debt and plans to purchase about $1.43 trillion in mortgage-related securities by the end of March. Selling these assets would push up private borrowing costs.
Bullard noted that the Fed had waited 2-1/2 to three years to raise interest rates after the past two recessions. However, as he had a month ago, he cautioned that the central bank might act differently this time, given that its actions in the past have been criticized for fueling the housing bubble.
If it followed its past pattern, the Fed would not raise its target for overnight interest rates until early 2012, he said.
“That should be the baseline that is in your head because that is the way the Fed has behaved in the past, and in the past decade, that is the way the Fed has behaved,” Bullard told reporters after his speech.
“There’s reasons to think the (Fed) won’t wait that long this time because of this too low for too long argument which is a powerful argument, and it apparently created a lot of problems for us that really blew up in this crisis,” he said.
…
“A senior Federal Reserve official said Wednesday that the U.S. central bank may start tightening financial conditions by selling assets it has accumulated rather than raising interest rates.”
Wouldn’t the first order effect of selling assets be deflationary (for said asset prices)? Of course, the Fed could sterilize such sales by printing money, targeting said asset prices at a fixed level…
No thanks Mugsy.You obviously don’t know me. And if you hadn’t seen the vitriol the day before, perhaps you don’t know what I was beefing @. If you want to support the encouragement of hate/fear/murder then just quietly abide by the radioheads etc.
FHA-Backed Lending Is a ‘Train Wreck,’ Toll Says (Update1)
Nov. 18 (Bloomberg) — The Federal Housing Authority, which insures home purchases with as little as 3.5 percent down payments, may create another crisis in the lending industry, Toll Brothers Inc. Chief Executive Officer Robert Toll said.
“Yesterday’s subprime is today’s FHA,” Toll said today at a New York conference for builders sponsored by UBS AG. “It’s a definite train wreck and the flag will go up in the next couple of months: Bail us out. Give us more money.” Toll Brothers is largest U.S. luxury homes builder..,
The FHA’s insurance reserve ratio fell to 0.53 percent, the lowest level in history, and more steps are needed to shore up the agency that guarantees one of every five single family loans, Housing and Urban Development Secretary Shaun Donovan said Nov. 12. The FHA is required by Congress to maintain a loan reserve ratio of at least 2 percent to protect the insurance fund from default.
The FHA said 456,000 of its loans, or 8.2 percent, were in default as of September. That was up from 5.6 percent in September 2008.
Never bite the hand that feeds you, Robert…
he is trying to goose the stock price up some more to dump all his shares…betcha!
At the risk of becoming nicknamed “Eddie,” I just signed my consulting agreement for a 4.5% hourly rate increase starting in the next pay period.
Pollyannish Happy Days for contract engineering!
My company knows I got a potential better offer in Arizona, so they upped my rate to encourage me to stay.
I just signed my consulting agreement for a 4.5% hourly rate increase starting in the next pay period.
Congratulations!
Good Going!
Thanks lavi_d and wmbz!
Way to go Bila. Not all wet then!
thank you!
If you want to compete with Eddie, you will have to (1) first tell us why all who post here are full of sh!t, then (2) explain why there has never been a better time to buy a house…
Congrats BILA. I was kidding yesterday in my post. I hope you saw my apology.
Hey, Congrats, BiLA. That must be a huge relief for ye. Happy Thanksgiving!
Some lawmakers want to exempt so-called “end users” of derivatives from new capital and other requirements in the overhaul legislation. A potent coalition of about 170 companies that use derivatives — including Boeing Co., Caterpillar Inc., Ford Motor Co., General Electric Co. and Shell Oil Co. — has been lobbying Congress to say that regulation of derivatives without exceptions could severely increase costs for corporate America.
That could mean higher costs passed on to consumers and imperiled jobs, they contend.
“We are concerned that imposing clearing, margin and capital requirements on end users would significantly increase our cash requirements and costs,” Ford Vice President and Treasurer Neil Schloss testified.
Echoes of support came from several members of the Senate Agriculture Committee at a hearing Wednesday.
“This has some very, very serious consequences” for farmers and other businesses, said Sen. Mike Johanns, R-Neb.
Sen. Debbie Stabenow, D-Mich., said it would be a hardship for manufacturing companies to have to divert sorely needed working capital to put up as collateral under the new requirements.
But Gary Gensler, chairman of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, told the panel that if Congress decides to exempt some end-user transactions, the exception should be “explicit and narrow.”
Broader exemptions could allow financial market players such as hedge funds, for example, to benefit from them, Gensler says.
Looks like the bill will take the form of swiss cheese, ie lots of holes for GS and others to continue with business as usual.
How many Wall Street executive bonuses equal $500m?
Goldman’s $500 Million Is Day Late, Dollar Short: Mark Gilbert
Commentary by Mark Gilbert
Nov. 18 (Bloomberg) — So now we know the value Goldman Sachs Group Inc. places on salving its conscience for screwing up what Chief Executive Officer Lloyd Blankfein called “God’s work.” It seems that $500 million is all it takes to compensate the world for Goldman’s role in creating the credit crunch.
Goldman said yesterday it’s setting up a “10,000 Small Businesses Initiative.” It will shell out $200 million to educational institutions to help guide business owners, with a further $300 million invested for lending and philanthropy aimed at community development groups. Billionaire investor Warren Buffett, whose Berkshire Hathaway Inc. is the largest Goldman shareholder, is joining the initiative.
…
First Banks: One in four Florida home loans under the microscope.
Tampa Bay Business Journal
About 24.2 percent of the Florida mortgage division portfolio at First Banks Inc. was delinquent or restructured as of Sept. 30.
The Florida mortgage division portfolio stood at $188.8 million at the end of the third quarter, down from $239.9 million at Dec. 31, a filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission said.
The bank incurred net loan charge-offs of $26.5 million on the portfolio during the first nine months of 2009. There were $7.6 million in loans that were 30 days to 89 days delinquent, restructured loans of $8.5 million and nonaccrual loans of $29.6 million, the filing said.
The bank’s total loan portfolio in Florida stood at $340.2 million as of Sept. 30, down from $424.3 million nine months earlier, the filing said.
Privately owned First Banks, based in St. Louis, lost $91 million in the third quarter, compared with a loss of $25 million a year ago, the filing said. First Banks, the holding company for First Bank, had $10.7 billion in assets and 209 locations in four states as of Sept. 30.
First Banks entered Florida in November 2007 when it bought Coast Financial Holdings Inc. in Bradenton. As of June 30, First Bank had 19 offices and $429.7 million in deposits in the Tampa Bay area.
“First Banks entered Florida in November 2007 …”
Entered the building right as the blaze was gaining momentum. Timing is everything. Hope the genius behind this aquisition got a nice bonus check.
Housing savant Paulson now looks to gold
Paulson & Co. to buy shares of gold-related investments in 2010. Paulson to invest $250 million.
NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) — Billionaire John Paulson, who earned his his hedge fund billions when he bet against the housing bubble, is waging a new noteworthy bet.
Paulson is investing as much as $250 million in a new gold fund next year.
The investor’s Paulson & Co. will launch the fund Jan. 1, 2010 and will buy shares of gold miners and other investments related to the precious yellow metal, a source familiar with the firm’s plans told CNNMoney.com. Paulson discussed the fund at a meeting with investors on Tuesday.
It will aim to outshine record-breaking gold prices, which have been hitting all-time highs recently as the dollar has weakened and fueled inflation fears.
Although the minimum investment value for the gold fund in unknown, hedge funds usually require a minimum $1 million investment to get into the fund. Most of Paulson & Co. funds are focused on institutional investors.
My yesterday rant didn’t stick, so another try:
Where’s my piece of the action?
GM: Short term thinking sell high profit gas hogs, neglect the tide of green machines younger generation consumers want. GM. Pay obscene salaries & perks to the paperclip benders in the gold towers. GM. Declare bankruptcy, evaporate small mom & pop shareholder investment, then hands out for Uncle Sam bailout cash. Nice!
GMAC: Billboards and TV advertising was ubiquitous with these mortgage swindlers. Sell mom if the commission keeps ‘em in Ralph Lauren and fine single malt scotch. Can you say DiTech! Get a zero down, cash back, pay later loan from DiTech..blah, blah. Crooks are crooks, white collar or blue collar. American’s may finally be figuring it out - it’s not just those Nigerian schemes that try to steal our money and sell our personal information, IT’S EVERY BIT AS MUCH OUR FELLOW AMERICANS WHO LIVE BY THE CREDO OF, “WHERE’S MY PIECE OF THE ACTION?”
My yesterday’s rant didn’t stick, so another try:”
Have you been carrying around this rant since yesterday?
Ding! Ten points to you. Kidding aside, I’ve been harboring my venomous thoughts about GS/GM/AIG/BAC/GMAC much longer than yesterday.
House Panel Approves Measure to Dismantle Risky Firms (Update1)
By Alison Vekshin
Nov. 18 (Bloomberg) — A House committee approved giving the U.S. authority to break up healthy, well-capitalized firms whose size threatens the economy, a step Republicans said would create a “huge accumulation” of power.
The House Financial Services Committee voted 38-29 today on an amendment that would let regulators dismantle a firm, limit mergers and acquisitions and force an end to activities deemed systemically risky. The financial industry opposed the measure, which is part of legislation to overhaul Wall Street rules.
“I recognize this is extraordinary power,” Representative Paul Kanjorski, a Pennsylvania Democrat who proposed the amendment, said during debate. “Hopefully it will never have to be used because it is displayed and because it does exist.”
The House Financial Services Committee is considering legislation that would create a council of regulators, including the Federal Reserve, to monitor large, interconnected firms for risks they pose. It’s part of the effort in Congress to overhaul financial rules to prevent a repeat of the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression.
Republicans opposed Kanjorski’s plan as giving too much authority to regulators.
“That’s a huge accumulation of power that we’re going to give to five or six people that are on this council,” said Representative Randy Neugebauer, a Texas Republican. “We’re already imposing the federal government substantially on these entities.”
…
Republicans opposed Kanjorski’s plan as giving too much authority to regulators.
Oligarchy building and too-big-to-fail corporations are as big a part of the American Dream as home ownership and a chicken in every pot, right? House GOP patriots aren’t afraid to dream the dream …
I was wondering if it would be possible to trace the Congressmen who voiced the loudest opposition back to the Megabanks who funded their last political campaigns?
It sounds a great plan that will allow GS to crush any start ups that grow too big for their britches.
I’m in favor of breaking up all TBTF banks now.
I like Sander’s TBTF plan, which requires the Treasury Secretary to submit a list of TBTF trusts as breakup candidates. There doesn’t seem to be much question about which Wall Street banks would fall in the top 5 TBTF slots, does there?
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/6599281/Societe-Generale-tells-clients-how-to-prepare-for-global-collapse.html
I’m not sure if anyone else referenced this already, forgive me if it is a duplicate. This article describes in a nutshell the difference between Combotechie and myself with regard to PMs and deflationary contraction.
From the article:
“Société Générale has advised clients to be ready for a possible “global economic collapse” over the next two years, mapping a strategy of defensive investments to avoid wealth destruction. “
Yoikes.
Good find.
I guess it never hurts to be prepared? Our food storage is fully stocked, but perhaps we need to invest in guns and ammo?
I guess it should be remembered that the French would surrender to Jello, so this bank’s take on thing could be taken with a grain of salt, or maybe some nice diced pineapple.
Buy primers first, casings second. Anyone can make powder and most can figure out how to make bullets, but the first two have to be made in factories. In the worst case, they would be worth more than gold. IMO - delusional, of course. Right, Hwy50? Palmetto?
FWIW, good-quality commercial ammo, properly stored, will last longer than any reader here, so don’t let the reloading mentality freak you out if all you want is to be able to defend yourself against a minor assault. Just buy several boxes of good-quality ammo and keep it in a cool, dry place. IMO, giant quantities of individually-possessed ammo serve only two purposes - as trading material (credible) and as defensive ammo for end-of-world scenarios in which I would prefer to have at reach a bottle or two of Makers Mark. But I am an old fart, with not much at stake. Shucks, I used to think that “Euthenasia” was a cruise-line stop, not a part of a “health-care” package.
“This article describe in a nutshell the difference between Combotechie and myself with regards to PMs and deflationary contraction.”
Hmmmm. Let’s see if I can pick apart this nutshell of yours and discover just where I stand regarding this article:
“… rescue packages over the last year have merely transferred private liabilities onto sagging sovereign shoulders, creating a fresh set of problems.”
Agree. They did this to financially back-up the banks so the world’s economy wouldn’t freeze up. Without this backing none of the banks could be trusted to make good on clearing financial tranactions, which is one of a bank’s major functions.
“Overall debt is stil far too high in almost all rich economies.”
Agree. But this situation is in the process of being rectified via bankruptcies and repudiations. Stay tuned.
“It (the debt) must be reduced by the hard slog of ‘deleveraging’ for years.”
Agree, a point I have been making for quite some time.
“As yet nobody can say with any certainity whether we have in fact escaped the prospect for a global economic collapse.”
Agree, but the odds are it won’t collapse but will muddle through.
“… the dollar would slide furthur and global equities would retest the March lows. Property prices would tumble again. Oil would fall back to $50 in 2010.”
Agree about global equities, property prices, maybe oil. Don’t have an opinion about the “dollar slide”.
The article mentions one should “avoid being caught in the inherent deflationary spiral”. On this I totally agree. Some of the ways one can cope with this deflationary spiral is to:
Keep working instead of retiring. Keep up a steady flow of incoming cash.
Get out and stay out of debt.
Become liquid. Develop a longing to become flush in cash.
Become informed and in touch with financial trends and currents.
Remain patient. Allow events to unfold.
Learn to do without all the “must haves” that other people - the majority of whom you don’t even know - have said you need to acquire in order to be happy.
There’s more, but you get the idea ( I hope).
One more thing: One person’s debt is another person’s money.
There is a great deal of debt out there in our economy that will never be paid back. It’s your job to make sure you are not one of those on the wrong end of this debt.
And as this debt disappears it will take an equal amount of money with it. This disappearance of money will make the money that remains scarce - hence difficult to get, difficult to keep.
Enabling banks to hide bad assets sounds to me like a perfectly fine way to destroy any trust remaining in the American banking system.
Oh what a tangled web you weave
when at first you practice to deceive.
OPINION
NOVEMBER 18, 2009, 7:09 P.M. ET.
Don’t Let Banks Hide Bad Assets
In times of distress, there’s always pressure to change accounting standards
By RODERICK M. HILLS, HARVEY L. PITT AND DAVID S. RUDER
Independent accounting standards have helped make American capital markets the best in the world. In making financial decisions, investors rely heavily upon the integrity of corporate financial reports prepared in accordance with accounting standards established by the independent Financial Accounting Standards Board (FASB). That board is supervised by the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC).
Now, the Obama administration is on the verge of transferring accounting standards responsibility from the SEC to a systemic risk regulator. Such a radical move would have extremely negative consequences for our capital markets.
Although there may be good reasons for establishing different regulatory capital standards for financial services firms, those reasons cannot justify dispensing with the FASB’s accounting standards. Acting in accord with powers given to it by the Sarbanes-Oxley Act, the SEC has formally recognized the FASB as the definitive standard-setting body, capable of “improving the accuracy and effectiveness of financial reporting and the protection of investors.”
…
During times of financial distress, there is always pressure to change accounting standards in order to inflate the value of assets. Under certain circumstances, there may be a legitimate need to recognize that stresses on large financial institutions may threaten the stability of the U.S. financial system. Banking regulators can ease such stresses by reducing regulatory capital requirements. But it would be a mistake to adopt legislation that would allow financial-services firms to hide their true financial positions from investors.
If changes in accounting standards are used to bury significant risks for one purpose, it will not be long before other purposes are asserted to permit further deviations. This is a dangerous path that will only hurt investors and our capital markets.
Messrs. Hills, Pitt and Ruder are former chairmen of the Securities and Exchange Commission.
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