Bits Bucket For November 25, 2009
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The Housing Bubble
Examining the home price boom and its effect on owners, lenders, regulators, realtors and the economy as a whole.
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Name:Ben Jones
Location:Northern Arizona, United States
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FDIC reports biggest drop for business loans on record.
USA Today ~ 11-25-09
U.S. banks are earning money again, but they’re writing fewer business loans, threatening a fragile economic recovery.
The Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. reported Tuesday that U.S. bank loans fell by $210.4 billion or 2.8% during the third quarter – the biggest drop since the FDIC started keeping records in 1984. Banks booked $2.8 billion in third-quarter profits, reversing a second-quarter loss of $4.3 billion. “We need to see banks making more loans to their business customers,” says FDIC Chairman Sheila Bair. “This is especially true for small businesses.”
Loans to businesses fell 6.5%, and real estate loans plummeted 8.1%.
“Until small businesses are able to borrow, we can’t have a robust economy, because that’s your largest source of jobs,” says Richard Posner, a law professor at the University of Chicago and a federal circuit judge. The Small Business Administration has said that small businesses created 64% of new jobs in the past 15 years.
“Until small business is able to borrow ,we can’t have a robust economy,because that’s your largest source of jobs,”says Richard Posner……”
Forgive me if I bring up the point that wasn’t part of the purpose of
Tarp …to free up the credit markets ? I smell a new bail out in which the Feds/Treasury now provides either bail outs for bad business paper or direct funding for
small business ,as if this is a good time to open up a small business .
The purpose of the TARP was to allow the government to buy up all of the toxic assets of the “too big to fail” companies ensuring the bonus pool was even deeper for those brilliant executives.
Small businesses were never mentioned.
Exactly, Skip. The bailout never had anything to do with preserving jobs, small businesses, or anything else which was in the best interests of the country and it’s people as a whole. It was about preserving the wealth of the top 10%, specifically the top 1%.
“…..purpose of the TARP…..”
That’s their story, and they’re sticking to it. And as they say, who are you going to believe? Them, or your lyin’ eyes?
Nobody can tell me that there was no other way to loan money to people, other than save the IB’s, and let it “trickle down”……as amply demonstrated, the would rather “invest” free money overseas, buying up commodities, or in some kind of carry trade.
Hank Paulson talked repeatedly about the need for small business
credit and they discussed it on the Senate floor repeatedly as justification for Tarp Money for Banks to free up lending money
for credit in general . The big selling point for Tarp was that the credit markets were jammed up because of the toxic mortgage
paper banks were holding . Paulson was going to buy this toxic paper that was dragging the Banks down so it would free them up
to provide funds for all credit markets .
After Paulson got the money he just gave cash injection bail-outs
and buying toxic assets went by the wayside (until later when some of that stuff went on F&F’s books )
And you are so right X-GSFixr that there was many other ways to get the money to people for lending at the time .
It seems an odd comment from Bair. I would think she should be the champion of an orderly credit contraction.
Is the money the FDIC pours into the banking system part of the third quarter profits, or is it all accounting rules changes?
I’m not sure. I think Bair is referring to the usual 30-day revolving credit that businesses operate on, not huge loans for capital improvement. That was one of the first things banks froze in Oct 08.
*sigh* it would be nice if a business could store up 60-90 days of cash, and then work their 30-day cycle using that cushion. Then they wouldn’t need credit at all. (they’d be their own credit, so to speak.) But as we all know, cushions simply don’t survive in this economy.
Maybe it will be the norm for the next few decades, but I think conservative business practices like having money in reserve made it hard to compete with the razor’s edge risk takers in the past couple decades.
Just like anyone living on a cash basis looked poor for all these years in comparison to the credit bingers. It looks good now though!
Yep, individuals, companies, federal and state and local governments have been operating on a “credit is the same as cash,” basis the last few years. So long that most still assume that this is “normal.”
Aren’t cushions made in China these days?
Yes they are. Which is why they don’t last.
Judge wipes out mortgage debt to punish bank that accepted bailout funds but has not worked with homeowners to restructure mortgage debts.
http://www.nypost.com/p/news/local/judge_kos_mortgage_to_slap_bank_28ZS1oW8Y58z6gu1AQbWMI
SCHWEET!
“U.S. banks are earning money again…”
It would be an interesting exercise be to delve into the quality of these earnings, to learn just how the banks are earning money in such a crummy economic environment.
Ya think?
And don’t get me started on Level 3 flim flam, er, I mean “assets.”
““Until small businesses are able to borrow, we can’t have a robust economy, because that’s your largest source of jobs,” says Richard Posner, a law professor at the University of Chicago and a federal circuit judge.”
Why does being in a small business have to involve debt service?
Despite anything you may have heard in life and the popular press, the reality is that business is cyclical and slow building. You need some kind of resource to carry you through the slow times. You also need some kind of resource to quickly expand to meet demand.
Small businesses are especially sensitive to these cycles and movements.
There used to be a general rule of thumb that you needed at least one year’s income (both personal and business) in order to start a business. Now the rule is 5 years. That’s a lot of money no matter what the business.
Thus credit.
The cause of the current credit contraction is more than just banks unwilling to lend . . . it includes companies unwilling or not needing to borrow. The regulators are exacerbating the lending climate by putting the hammer down on banks after the fact. It’s hard to justify taking on additional risk now.
Companies continue to lay off workers and cut unnecessary costs, they are hunkering down folks. We have so much excess capacity in manufacturing and office space right now, that there is very little need to borrow to expand. Very few companies in the expansion mode.
On the other side banks’ balance sheets suck compared to just two years ago, non performing assets are rising quickly and spreads on loans v. deposits have shrunk. Plus Bair wants banks to front load 3 years of FDIC fees into a currently insolvent fund.
All this talk about stimulating business lending is pushing on a string IMO.
‘Ol Jed was shootin’ at some food?
Home Prices May Be Nearing a New Dip.
NYT ~ November 24, 2009
Home prices are enduring an early winter chill, raising the odds that the economy may suffer another jolt while it is still weak.
Two price indexes released Tuesday indicated that the momentum the housing market showed over the late spring and summer is faltering, even as the government said the economy grew at a slower pace in the third quarter than previously reported.
The Standard & Poor’s/Case-Shiller home price index, a closely watched measure of the housing markets in 20 metropolitan areas, barely rose in September, rising 0.3 percent from August on a seasonally adjusted basis. Prices fell for the month in nine cities in the index, including Boston, New York, Seattle and Charlotte, N.C.
A report from the Federal Housing Financing Agency showed that prices were flat in September from August.
Real estate, which has traditionally brought the economy out of recession, seems increasingly likely this time to hold it back. The housing market’s epic boom early this decade has turned into an epic bust whose effects may take years to shake off.
The housing market is confronting an abundance of inventory, high unemployment, fearful consumers and devastated family balance sheets.
Krugman posted on his blog that at a 2.8% growth rate he expects the economy can’t make enough employment to make any dent at all on the unemployment numbers. Here, I’ll let him speak for himself:
This is really quite grim. At this growth rate it’s far from clear that we’re doing anything to reduce the output gap — the gap between what the economy could produce and what it’s actually producing. Correspondingly, there’s no reason now for even a bit of optimism on unemployment.
When the 3.5% advance number came out, I took to warning people that even if the economy continued to grow at that rate, we wouldn’t see anything like full employment until late in Sarah Palin’s second term. Given the latest number, the date at which we can expect to see a return to full employment is … never.
And that’s if growth continues at this rate. The odds are good that growth will slow down next year: the stimulus has already had its peak effect on growth and will turn into a net drag in the second half, the inventory bounce — which was a major factor in 3rd quarter growth, such as it was — will fade out.
The only way to get back the jobs ….is you know ….they won’t
do it . Long term 20 to 25% unemployment rates until they do the
dirty ….that they won’t do ……until the pitchforks come out .
Actually I don’t know. Tariffs? Eliminate corporate income taxes? Tell us. I’d love to hear a new idea or two.
Polly ,everybody knows what I think the answers are ,but it requires a very painful overhaul of bringing back manufacturing jobs and outsourced jobs and yes changing the tariffs . It would require a overhaul of Wall Street and the Lenders .
But first there has to be a admittance that the systems that came about that involved Monopolies and Globalism was for the sole benefit of self-interest groups that did not represent the Majority of America .
Watching the Politicians and the lobbyist trying to maintain the faulty systems that produced the crash to begin with is like watching a exercise in futility as well as a extreme waste of funds .
Eliminate corporate income taxes? Tell us. I’d love to hear a new idea or two.
Happy to oblige. Eliminating corporate income taxes would be great. Far better yet would be eliminating CORPORATIONS. These government- chartered and nourished cartels do little but lobby for special favors under the guise of making products and conducting “business”.
Oh, and those Federal Register volumes you’ve been using as footstools? Dump them in the Potomac– figuratively speaking. I mean REPEAL them. Let’s put your considerable mathematical and verbal skills to better use than tracking obscure and pointless regulations.
“Far better yet would be eliminating CORPORATIONS.”
I’m assuming you mean specifically the big multinationals as apposed to all corporations. Many small businesses are corporations.
I’m not sure this would do much to improve the employment situation. The infrastructure/productive capacity would still exist in other parts of the world, and at this point they have enough expertise to utilize it without US corporations.
Better yet ,ask a simple poll question to America .
Did you every agree that it was in the best interest of American people to compete with lower wage countries wages and
outsource jobs and manufacturing jobs to other Countries ,just so you could pay a 25% lower prices for cheap foreign junk ,while you lose your job or take a 50 % job pay cut ,while your expenses remain the same ?
Many small businesses are corporations.
Small businesses can operate just as easily as unincorporated entites, as they did for many decades in this country prior to the widespread adoption of corporation laws.
I’m not sure this would do much to improve the employment situation.
There is no reason for there to be unemployment ANYWHERE EVER. There is always work to be done in any society. It is true that specialized skills can become obsolete, so that workers are forced to take pay cuts, but these pay cuts should be accompanied by declines in RE and other prices. If there is serious and chronic unemployment, it is because government and corporations have monopolized and strangled the labor markets.
“There is always work to be done in any society.”
Based on a quick check on the net, there appears to be around 200 million unemployed workers world wide, based on a 6.5-7.4% rate.* And at around 7%, it’s unlikely that includes discouraged workers. What work are you envisioning that would require another 200+ million workers? And a lot of those workers won’t have many skills.
Keep in mind too, there doesn’t just have to be something that could be done. It has to be something that someone is willing to pay for.
* ‘DLC world employment rate’ in a search engine will find the ref
Al, yes, I already know all this, in fact not only does someone have to be willing to pay for the work, someone else has to be willing and able to do the work for that same price– in other words, the labor market has to “clear”.
Let me ask you, right now, is there anything that you would like someone to do for you? And is there a price you’d be willing to pay? Yes? Ok, good. This is the first half of the picture. Now, will someone do the work for your price? If not, why not? Taxes are too high, regs may be getting in the way, and RE and other prices are too high– all courtesy of the gang in DC.
Or maybe the worker won’t do the work because you’d pay so little that the worker would make more money taking unemployment/welfare/foodstamps.
I know your next answer would be to eliminate all handout programs like unemployment/welfare/foodstamps which would force people to work for as little as possible. The logical conclusion of this thought experiment can be seen on the hillsides of Caracas.
Venezuela is under an authoritarian socialist regime, hardly a case study in deregulation.
“Taxes are too high, regs may be getting in the way, and RE and other prices are too high– all courtesy of the gang in DC.”
I agree that waste in the system hinders private business. That doesn’t, however, prove that there are enough useful roles for people that could fetch a living wage. If you look at wealth creating jobs such as resource extraction, farming and manufacturing you’ll note they have all become more automated. There’s minimal job growth in these areas. The areas of job growth have been in jobs that only exist because of the heaps of regulations (ie. lawyers, accoutants, FIRE, environmental.)
“…in other words, the labor market has to “clear”.”
Mr. Market encourages business to minimize all costs, including labour. Use the fewest people at the lowest wages you can manage. Those that don’t will fail. An efficient labour market would result in much higher unemployment.
Correct me if I’m wrong LVG, but your belief is that if the PTB (for lack of a better term) would get out of the way then the business world would create new jobs. I can’t prove that wrong, but I’m skeptical. There just doesn’t seem to be many new inventions in a long time that don’t cannabalize something else. Cars vs wagons. Internet vs print & TV. Cell phones are reducing land lines. Anything truly new is pretty much a fad and far from necessary. As mentioned above, automation is reducing the need for workers and most new jobs to be a result of societal complexity. I just don’t believe there are enough useful roles for everyone in today’s world whether it’s ruled by socialists, free markets or whatever.
So, single payer health care for everyone would take the onus off all business big corp and small biz, thereby allowing business to perhaps pay less for a job and workers to not need as much for said job?
Jus saying, it sure would help the climate.
It’s obvious what needs to happen to bring jobs back. Control immigration, both legal and illegal first and foremost. There are too many people coming into this country! Second, start fining corporations for outsourcing and offshoring jobs, and also seriously pare down of all of these silly worker visa’s.
If Megacorp, Inc. was fined heavily for using cheap, illegal alien labor, and those workers were deported, then Megacorp, Inc. would be forced to hire legal citizens and offer better wages. Better wages, and English speaking co-workers go a long way towards good workplace morale for entry level service jobs.
Please read “Gangs of America” people.
It free online. Just google the title.
Corporate income tax? Don’t make me laugh. Half the corporations don’t pay any tax.
As for the problems of this country, well, who got money for screwing up? You? Me? Do you people need a map and a flashlight?
Small businesses would thrive if we didn’t have so much TBTF corporate fascism.
We have a winner.
I call it Corporate Communist Capitalism©®™.
But yes, technically, it is fascism.
Lemme guess, the Superbowl will spur a recovery!
You misspelled ‘Souperbowl.’
You misspelled ‘Souperbowl.’
And you misspelled “Superbole”
I thot it waz sooperboil????
Superhyperbole 6000!
Now be quite, I’m trying to watch the commercials.
“Home Prices May Be Nearing a New Dip.”
This has to be wrong, because all the ‘experts’ quoted in the MSM have boldly declared that a bottom is in place. Real estate can only go up from here.
I am up way too early… or late.
Bankruptcies Hit Retirement Communities.
Elderly residents who thought they’d secured their futures are finding their homes and savings at risk.
The recession is hitting elderly people where they live, literally. Financial problems have been mounting at a number of assisted-living and continuing-care communities, forcing some facilities into bankruptcies and inflicting new worries on residents and their families who thought their life plans were comfortably set. In recent weeks, Erickson Retirement Communities, which manages 19 continuing-care retirement communities in 11 states, declared bankruptcy. Sunrise Senior Living Inc. posted a quarterly loss of $82 million and announced plans to sell off 21 of its assisted-living communities. Nationally, smaller retirement communities are raising their prices, changing the way they operate, selling themselves off to bigger chains, or getting out of the business altogether. Many companies say they can’t make a profit—or even succeed on a nonprofit basis—in an environment that combines the high cost of caring for elderly residents, restrictive Medicaid budgets, tight credit markets and fewer residents willing and able to pay top dollar for their care.
http://www.newsweek.com/id/224154
Maybe if their debt service was less, they would be better able to cope….
geez, swcratch that plan…what changed? you mean these geezers had helocs, or just crashed 401k’s?
Artifically low interest rates are murder on fixed income investors.
Somehow I don’t think it’s just that. Over 10 years or so, yes. Something else is going on, though I guess the younger retirees have lost a lot in their 401k’s and whatever equivalents they have, because of overly aggressive investments.
But the older ones in the assisted living places shouldn’t be that vulnerable, unless their kids talked them into doing something stupid.
Its those older retiree’s that have borne the brunt of the drastic reduction in fixed income returns. When you roll over a 4.8% CD and the best you can do is 1.2%, that is a 75% reduction in disposable income. That forces the retiree to either move to riskier investments, of cannabilize the principle. Neither are particularly attractive options. Lots of that going on.
Ah, I love the smell of unintended consequences in the morning.
Many/most seniors planned to use the equity in their houses to pay the entrance fees to places like the Erickson facilities. That equity is greatly reduced if not gone altogether, plus finding a buyer for your house isn’t real easy right now. As Erickson’s current residents die off, there’s no one in the pipeline to replace them. Major cash flow/debt servicing problem.
We have friends in a very large retirement community in Montgomery County, just north of DC. Lots of vacancies, nothing is moving, and the list prices are down 50% from 3 years ago (when they bought).
Oldsters can’t sell their dwellings (at what price?) to move into this place. When someone moves on through death/nursing home the heirs just want to get rid of the place, rather then keep paying the rather heafty HOA type fees. So the heirs (if they are not fighting among themselves) keep lowering the sales price.
Somebody just told me of a place where they only charge 1700 a month for room and board ,but if you need more assistance the price goes up . Two years ago the price was 2300 a month for room and board in that assisted living place . Some of those places are a lot more expensive and if you need any nursing service ,or your food brought to you, the price is pretty high in a lot of those places .
All I know is I hope that I will never have to go to a place like that and I just have a massive heart attack after I mow the lawn ,or something like that . But ,I’m not even near the age yet that I should be thinking about those places . But,I’m concerned about the fact that with this economy that people that need those places will be able to even afford the cheaper ones . It’s going to be a problem .
I guess a new type of reverse mortgage might be in order.. to keep the person in their home and pay for live in care.
Many/most seniors planned to use the equity in their houses to pay the entrance fees to places like the Erickson facilities.
Massive heart attack while on my yacht is my plan.
Probably while I’m drunk and possibly in the middle of the Gulf/Carribean.
Good thing about me being out in a small sailboat in the ocean is the dang thing will probably sink and take care of burial costs. Also I have low likelyhood of taking out anyone else by mistake. Of course I will also have my machine gun to fend off the occasional pirate and shark problem.
My fear is mom will sell her house and use the proceeds to buy into one of these places. Right after that, they go under and poof her retirement is gone.
Already saw some other folks lose their retirement with this bubble. My intention is that mom isn’t going to get hit in the next wave of defaults.
Wow ,I never thought about that one before . You buy into a assisted living retirement home and it goes under and you lose your money . They have a lot of retirement homes set up where you have to buy into them as a partial owner . Someone was
telling me about one where you buy in for 200k (or was it 300k) ,and they take care of you until you die . The thing I could never understand about that deal is that it would be a rip if you died within one year of moving to the place . If you lasted for years ,than you might get the better of them financially Would I want to live in a place that was losing money if I lasted to long ? Seems like there would be a motive for not wanting people to last very long because they would make more money that way .
“to keep the person in their home and pay for live in care.”
That is really, really expensive, and the elderly are easily ripped off by the live-in or boyfriends, kids etc. Happened to my father, though he tolerated it. There’s a point where you just need someone checking on you regularly, and then when you need round the clock care. Hard to draw the line and I give credit to the elderly who look ahead and get themselves into assisted living. From then they can be moved to nursing homes without much trouble. I hope I can manage that when the time comes.
My 92 year old uncle died at home last Sunday, and it was unexpected. He was in good shape and expected to live more years, but someone wasn’t watching his appliances closely and…well, it was not good…
James maybe after taking 5 blue pills and having your way with the bunch of hot dancers you hired, just after you installed that high tech gold plated stripper pole on your yacht.
I wondah if any of them would even know how to get your boat back to shore????????
———————
Massive heart attack while on my yacht is my plan.
Last night the local news ran a “we have the secret Black Friday list” story… it was so sad to that reporter act like that. I mean, really…
That’s why I refuse to watch any local news. I can get the weather report online. All the real news I get from about 4 blogs, including the HBB. The rest is all just nonsense for the “consumers”.
They can leak all they want. They don’t have anything I want.
My son gave me a great birthday present—Plutarch’s Greek Lives. And he’s giving me Canterbury Tales for Christmas. That’s the kind of present enjoy. And there’s no need to get into crowds to gind them.
I read Canterbury Tales in my English Lit class in high school. I’ll have to go check it out of the library and read it again. I’m again reading War of the Worlds right now.
+1
I love the “leaked” black friday flyers. Dealtime and other deal websites have started to post them with the byline: “Store XXXX sent us their flyer to ‘leak’ to you”.
It makes consumers feel important, like they’re James Bond.
For Your Eyes Only: Battery powered rodent $6.99
Half of the population is below average in intellegence. Thats the target Black Friday market.
Half of the population is below average in (intelligence).
Mabye but:
One of the definitions of “Average” is “An intermediate level or degree”, another is “ordinary”. Source: thefreedictionary.com
I believe intelligence involves more than an IQ test (100 being “average”) Therefore I would say that the above definitions do a better job defining “average” intelligence than the definition in Math: A number that typifies a set of numbers of which it is a function.
By the first 2 definitions I would guess that maybe 42% of Americans have “average” or ordinary intelligence. 32% have below and 32% have above average intelligence. (the extra 6% accounts for America’s illegal’s)
That’s just a guess based on perceptions and fuzzy math. It’s a complicated subject too.
I’ve met geniuses that were kinda dumb and had messed up lives and I’ve met many dumb people who functioned better in life than geniuses. Part of the definition of “intelligence” is the ability to manipulate one’s environment and deal with trying situations, neither of which are fairly tested on an IQ test. Source: merriam-webster.com
EQ is VERY important in measuring intelligence too IMHO.
So the good news is, I don’t think Americas are as dumb as we might think we are, ignorant maybe, dumb maybe not.
I guess I should have said below the mean, but you got my drift. Lots of really stupid people out there.
so it’s everywhere…pisspoor excuse for “news.”
Buy our junk, buy our junk……Pleeeezeee. We’re shutting the doors right after Christmas.
It’s November sweeps, and local news pulls out all the stops when attempting to attract viewers. Usually you will see hard-hitting investigative journalism somehow involving sex.
SPTimes: “Three years of depreciation have left close to half of Tampa Bay homeowners owing more on their mortgages than their homes are worth.”
Now, if you want a peek into the cranium of future jingle-mailers, check out this comment:
I too am in an underwater boat. I can afford to pay my mortgage (not an arm, 30 year fixed) but because of all of the foreclosures and irresponsible owners and practices, I have lost 1/3 of the value. It doesn’t make sense to keep paying but I don’t want to destroy my 750 credit score either. Too bad all of this money went to bail out the people who caused this mess. Refinance me, and the others, who make their payments and intend on staying and improving their properties, to current market value, and prevent future foreclosures. The good guys like us deserve a little help.
Sounds a little like blackmail.
but because of all of the foreclosures and irresponsible owners and practices, I have lost 1/3 of the value
Why can’t any of these idiots understand the difference between price and value? They are not the same thing.
And you notice how everybody deserves their own bailout? Bailout fever has spread much more rapidly than the swine flu. This is like the Whine Flu and this guy seems to have an advanced case. And he considers himself one of the “good guys”? OMG.
He can also bring his payments down to $0 simply by paying off his mortgage!
“Why can’t any of these idiots understand the difference between price and value?”
Because, NYCityBoy, we are a society that puts a price on everything. And a society that puts a price on everything values NOTHING.
Ugh. So this guy is sending tens of thousands of dollars down the drain every year to keep his fico score high? Stupid is as stupid does.
“So this guy is sending tens of thousands of dollars down the drain every year to keep his fico score high?”
A few years ago, the term we were tossing around was “price stickiness.” I think with the banks stalling, and attitudes like this guy’s, we might not get the results we’re all expecting fast enough.
My husband bought the house that we live in in 2001, prior to our marriage 4 years later. He paid a price appropriate to what was in the area at the time. Now, of course, the house is worth 40 % less, at least. He can’t find work and is on S.S. disability. We have talked about our choices: either to pay our monthly note and keep our good FICO’s, or to walk away. He is in favor of keeping extremely good FICO’s ( or at least as well as we can keep them - I got the flu for 2 1/2 weeks this month and missed the payment date on 3 cc’s ! First time in a many a year. But at least I’m better and can breathe again….I was very persuasive and all 3 cc’s rescinded their late fees. I was so chagrinned. Paid the balances, which were small. ) and I’m more in favor of walking…but his reasoning is that since we’re older, we may need very good credit. Luckily, we’re reasonably cautious and have a mtg. payment at a fixed rate which is relatively equal to what we’d pay to rent a house around here. We’ll live here until I retire, then rent it out if we can’t sell it. We know that we’d have to make a choice - either nice FICO or more $$ in pocket by walking away. You can’t have both. A lot of people want a 4500 sq. foot. palace for $ 1500 a month mtg. payment, too. Can’t have that, either. And I think I want some gold and silver unicorns and the Tooth Fairy to put a quarter under my pillow every morning, too. Being a grown-up is hard for a lot of folks. In this economy, a lot of people are having to grow up and wonder why they ever thought that they needed 4 Skidoos….
“In this economy, a lot of people are having to grow up”
The guy (business manager) at the dealership yesterday said that he is having a lot of uncomfortable situations in which people come in expecting to drive off with a car, and then he tells them he can’t offer them any financing. He said most of them were older folks who’ve lost a lot in the last few years.
In all honesty, I wonder why anyone would take on the payments for a $32000 vehicle right now. Used is a good choice for many. I’m not sure why anyone would want to indebt themselves for 72 months of payments for something that may not be working well by then. We have a fleet of 4 old, old vehicles, but if one has to go into the shop, we always have something to drive. The insurance costs are correspondingly low, too.
Candy and rainbow crapping unicorns?
“…..$32,000 vehicle…..”
I wonder if anyone is looking at the unintended consequences, as the house/car price ratio starts approaching 1/1
Wait a second Silverback 1011. The house is worth 40% less than what was paid in 2001? That doesn’t ring correct. That would put the current price back to early 90’s levels or even less.
Can you elaborate on that?
“He can’t find work and is on S.S. disability.”
So, is he really disabled, or just unemployed?
FWIW, I’m amazed how many men are on SSDI these days. Half of the guys I grew up with are on it, and have been since their early forties; most of ‘em work part time under the table. Their girlfriends are on social relief too. I’m referring to California where it seems easier to board the gravy train.
I guess if you are smart that is the new disability….no one wants to hire you…so why not apply?
———————–
I’m amazed how many men are on SSDI these days
“I’m amazed how many men are on SSDI these days”
Yeah it’s going around. And all the ones I know are out driving around, shopping, working in the yard, picking up odd jobs and living a pretty good life. Beats working. An old acquaintance finally got on it - she said the only way was “mental” if you could pull it off. Hard to disprove..trouble is, you have to sort of convince yourself you’re sick. She seemed normal at first but got weird after that, lost an eye in a barroom fight with another woman.
In California where my friends are it is next to impossible to support yourself, much less a family, if you lack a formal education and/or specialized vocational training, and this happens to be the case with all of my friends that are on SSDI; no prior military service among them either. Curious thing, most of them came from middle class families too, not poor.
“In California where my friends are it is next to impossible to support yourself, much less a family, …”
California class structure:
Poor, wealthy, screwed…
Further elaboration on house value slipping 40%. Houses in this sub sold for 92,000 to 96,000 when they were built in the early 90’s. I know, because I lived nearby when the sub was being built out, and I toured one of the models. Houses were up to $ 170’s by 2001. This is a popular sub and even the foreclosures are turned over within a year. Houses are now selling in the $ 120’s to 130’s. However, desparate homeowners are lowering their prices into the $105’s to $110’s. So, altho we are not selling, right now our house is worth somewhere from $ 110K to $130K, about a 35-40 % drop. This is Michigan, folks. As I’ve written before, you can buy a decent house in an older town for $ 50K to $ 65K. (Not in Detroit, outside of it ). In Detroit, you can get a decent house in a fairly good neighborhood for about $15k to $20k. If I just wanted a place to live at a reasonable price and had a way to support myself, I’d be looking at Michigan.
He’d try to work, but his memory is going, and his strength to stand on his legs all day has waned due to diabetes complications. He is legally blind, and was very depressed and somewhat suicidal when he had to leave pharmacy school after 2 1/2 years of complete toil and worry and frustration. Being almost through a doctoral program and then being forced to drop out because you’re too old and sick is very discouraging. He’s a good chemist, but he’s not able to keep up with the constant demands of a lab. He took a couple of temp jobs as a lab tech before applying for S.S.D., but they screamed at him constantly and demeaned him for being slow and having a hard time seeing. It was tragic for a proud man that’s worked for 40 years, had been a lab manager and chief chemist, and it was simply time for him to retire. He got S.S.D. on the first try, which only 19% of the applicants are granted. Companies had downsized him out of several jobs after 9 or 10 years of service in the previous decades. He was never let go for cause or lack of diligence until his eyesight and memory started to fade.
I’m for him sending more thousands down the drain. Somebody need to pay for this mess. Better his money than mine.
I get the feeling that the ave Joe wants his bailout, too. Let’s see- this guy wants a reduction in his interest as well as his principal… with no rammifications to his credit score or credit eligibility.
The FED dropped interest rates to .25% (at the highest to those at their window) Spent TRILLIONS bailing out the worst of the worst- and still has a AAA rating. I have heard nothing lately about Moody’s (or any other ratings group)dropping the US score as a nation- it was in the news (repeatedly) for about a month, what, about 4-5 months ago?
Wonder where he got the idea?
OPM (Other People’s Money) is a dwindling resource.
Pay or leave. But what people WANT is principal reduction without the hit on their FICO, debt forgiveness without bankruptcy, absolution without pennance. It just doesn’t work that way. Look, walking away can be a perfectly rational response to given how far underwater some people are.* But at the end of the day, you agreed to a series of payments and then failed to make good on your promise. It isn’t necessarily a MORAL question, but the fact that you make promises to pay and then fail to fulfil them certainly SHOULD be used by future creditors in determining whether to lend you money, and at what interest.
* Of course with recourse mortgages, bankruptcy may be neccessary as well. (IANAL, this is not legal advice, and free legal advice is overpriced)
In a world of real credit assessment, wouldn’t a person who demands a principle reduction any time they are underwater on their property be required to pay much, much, much higher interest rates? Lets give him a 1/3 hair cut on the balance as long as he is willing to go to a full recourse loan on the refi and take an interest rate of 12%.
Only if they get it. Actions speak louder than words, and whining is a right guaraanteed under the constitution.
What makes that guy’s post dangerous, is that that is exactly the kind of thing politicians latch on to.
“What makes that guys post dangerous, is that is exactly the kind of thing politicians latch on to”
Especially a FL politician. The last thing they want to do is go against the builders, that own them. Floridians will have to learn the hard way- unregulated growth is not sustainable and more building will further depress RE prices.
Kiri:
Question shouldn’t it be unregulated Luxury growth is not sustainable? What if they built 25,000 condozes the last few years in Miami for $150K or less would they be empty or in foreclosure today?
——————–
Floridians will have to learn the hard way- unregulated growth is not sustainable
“It isn’t necessarily a MORAL question, but the fact that you make promises to pay and then fail to fulfil them certainly SHOULD be used by future creditors in determining whether to lend you money, and at what interest.”
I couldn’t agree more. Most people on here know that I am in favor of encouraging people to “walk away”. But, at the same time, I think that they should suffer all the problems associated with that (bad credit/no credit cards/etc). Just because it’s the “right” decision for many people doesn’t mean that I think it should be painless, or without consequence.
However, at the same time, I think that the advice that most people are getting today (from RE agents and bankers, primarily) to “stick it out” and “live up to your obligations” is just horrible. I have NO vested interest in someone paying, or not paying their loan. These people have a tremendous interest in making sure that, no matter how hopelessly underwater you are, and not matter how much better off the REST OF YOUR LIFE would be if you default, that you do not stop paying.
If you paid 500K (and have a 500K loan) on a house that’s now worth 250K, you have 250K in debt with no asset attached to it. That’s about 500K (when you figure in the interest) that you have to pay, that; if you walk, will be forgiven/gone. 500K is a tremendous sum of money to nearly every person in this country; and the vast majority (90%+) simply cannot afford to take a hit like that to their lifetime finances. They have to walk, or accept the reality that they are going to have a decreased standard of living for the next 20+ years because of a stupid purchase.
And to be clear, the bank should be free to grant a reduction in principal if they feel that it is in their best interest. After all, foreclosure is an expensive process and when it is over (assuming a non-recourse loan, or bankruptcy by the borrower) the bank HAS lost the amount of the that the house was underwater. But the difference between a principal reducing workout/refi, a short sale, or foreclosure is just the AMOUNT of money the lender has lost, not the central fact that the borrower has failed to repay the money that he has borrowed. And so they should have a similar (though probably not identical) impact on the credit-worthiness of the borrower.
If it were just the Bank and its shareholders that are taking the hit when the homedebtor walks or when the bank cuts its principle, I would be all in favor of the housedebtor walking if he cant get the resolution he needs. This would force the bank and the homedebtor to work together to make the best of a bad business deal. Happens all the time in the business world.
The problem has arisen from the fact that government bail-outs of the banks have moved the financial consequences of the bad business deal from the Bank, its shareholders and the homedebtor to the taxpayer. Now, it seems to me, that there is a moral component to the homedebtor’s decision as to whether he stiffs the taxpayer or not. We are in general innocent bystanders in this mess. But, most people’s morality is inversely related to the dollar value of the problem at hand.
But the homedebtor had no more (or less) say than the rest of us as to whether the government would backstop the mortgage lenders. Since the lender expressly reserved the right to sell the note to whomever they so choose, I don’t think that the borrower can be said to have any responsibility that is dependent upon the ultimate owner of the debt. The note could have been bought by Greedy, Avaricous, and Sons banking company, or the little widow pension fund. But since the borrower had no say whatsoever in that transaction, I don’t think that his or her responsibility is any different in either case.
Wait a sec. The irresponsible owners and practices are what drove the prices UP. And then he too was irresponsible when he bought at peak price. He can afford it, but he still wants to refinance? No deal.
I wish oxide was in charge. But, alas, he’s not! I predict more bailouts if things continue to deteriorate.
“He?”
Whoops, oxide. I have always pictured you as a white guy in your forties. Are you actually a twentysomething Latina? I have images of all of you, but have only met a few. For example, in my mind, Eddie is a skinny black man in his thirties, and Olygirl is a wispy blonde who appears much younger than her actual age of 45.
I think the PR machine was so big at the time that leered borrowers into the Wall Street real estate Ponzi-scheme ,that it is questionable if the borrowers are totally responsible for the
risk taking they engaged in based on the promises they were promised ,however insane those promises were from the Industry .
If you think about it ,if the property was unfairly appraised based on Wall Street/Lenders breaching their duty to underwrite loans ,than in reality the borrowers were victimized by a Ponzi scheme ,thanks to Wall Street .
These borrowers weren’t sane ,but either was the Wall Street greed machine that contrived this way of generating money .
If a Company put a defective car on the market and it ended up having failed breaks we would immediately know who the responsible party was ,but in this case we are just bailing out the responsible party that put the defective car on the market . What about all the false advertising that took place during the boom ? I’m not saying the borrowers weren’t greedy or insane during the boom by believing the rah rah real estate campaign ,but the Lending Machine raised the price of real estate by providing defective loans and breaching duty to underwrite loans proper ,while they got repeated funds by the mis-rating of junk paper .
Now ,borrowers that committed fraud on their loan applications I put in a different slot ,and a high percentage of borrowers did commit fraud with the help of their friendly loan agent and real estate agent .
I’ve always pictured Eddie as a PR lobbyist. You know: When a news journalist says, “We requested an interview from [nasty institution], but they refused; and referred us instead to their VP of PR,” and the poor journalist has to interview this smarmy smirky snake oil used-car salesman? That’s Eddie.
So far on HBB I’ve been PR lobbyist, a banker, a real estate agent and a health care lobbyist. And now I’m black and skinny too.
Well the skinny (mostly) part is right.
odd. I pictured Eddie with balding head slightly tilted and one lazy eye. I picture Oxide with horn rimmed glasses and a tailored white lab coat.
Housing Wizard: But I don’t think that, Chinese drywall notwitstanding, the house having an inflated appraisal really counts as “defective,” in the same sense that a car that catched fire is. After all, the appraisal is just a (persumably expert) guess as to what the “second greatest” fool would pay. The “greatest fool” price is established by the purchasers bid. If anything is “defective” here, it is the bonds (especially of the CDO squared type) that were created when the mortgage was bundled and tranched. Although to the extant that these were Stated income loans, they really were like a car being sold “as is.” “Stated Income” translates as “We TOLD you we just wrote down whatever crazy shit the borrower told us.”
Used car salemen is about right. Maybe 19 years old.
I picture Eddie as a guy that both likes to bowl and engage in Latin division ballroom dancing…
Um, Silverback, you say your house is worth 40% less than your spouse paid for it in 2001, or is it worth 40% less than its peak bubble value?
You two didn’t refinance/HELOC, did you?
Jim …Maybe defective product is the wrong word . But ,if the appraisal is based on market value ,in a arms length transaction ,with a able borrower ,a Lender breaching their duty to underwrite the loans would cause that appraisal to be fraudulent because it was not based on the borrower being in a true arms length transaction in which you have a true able borrower . A “Able Borrower ” is one that has proven that they can afford the loan and there is no fraud in the loan application . If the Lenders breached their duty to do their function that caused the
fraudulent rise in real estate values ,and people were in competition with many fake “Unable Borrowers “,than the lenders created a false demand market and people were victimized by Lenders serious breach of the Lenders Job . This is why you can’t have the party that makes the investment also be the party that plays the lender (reason for Glass-Steagall) .
Anyone that was in competition for a house at the time
who was a “Able Borrower”,was in competition with fraudulent borrowers because of the Lenders breach of their duty . In addition Wall Street rated the junk high risk paper as being AAA ,thus leering investors into providing funds .
A memo didn’t come down from on high saying that all loans were going to be underwritten based on real estate always goes up ,yet the Lenders breached their duty to underwrite and police fraud based on this notion that this myth would take care of their neglect and Ponzi-scheme . The fact that Wall Street increasingly came up with more and more loan products that was a set up for a big fall for mania borrowers was another form of breach of duty to underwrite loans to insure that the borrower was ‘Able “,and their objective was to just keep the party going .
Look, in 1929 Wall Street did the same thing . In order to get people to invest in Stocks they started to play lender and give out high leveraged loans on margin so people would have funds to buy stock . This drove up the Stock Market to false values ,and when the margin calls went out ,a run on the banks occurred and outstanding margin loans crashed the system .
Actually what Wall Street did this time was even more sinister than what they did in 1929 .So,call it defective product ,or call it a outright fraudulent Ponzi-scheme in which Wall Street breached their duty playing lender ,but don’t call it fair business practice whatever you do .
I bowl on the Wii. Does that count?
You are a good sport Eddie. Yes.
HW I guess I’m just in the opinon that in the cases when* there’s fraud here, it is usually being perpetrated on the ultimate purchasers of the debt, the bond holders and NOT on the homeowner. You never HAVE to buy, especially with the change in the capital gains law. And since in most bubbly markets, renting was MUCH cheaper, you really have to regard the buyers as willing participants in their own fleecing. Seriously “real estate always goes up,” “a home is your greatest source of wealth,” and all the other lies and quarter truths spun by realtors are so obviously wrong that they can reasonably be regarded as “puffery”, like “greatest show on earth,” or “coke, it’s the real thing.”
*I originaly wrote “if” but really, there is enough lying and dishonesty here that to believe it consistantly stopped short of fraud is to have greater faith in the legal abilities of realtors than is justified.
I thought she mentioned she was 36 on her birthday????
Olygirl is a wispy blonde who appears much younger than her actual age of 45.
PR machine was so big at the time that leered
I really liked that misspelled turn of phrase…
The PR machine that leered. LOl
I believe it was supposed to be Lured, but leered is so much better.
And someone forgot to say ed was unforgiving, black/white view.
I agree that the greatest victims were actually the investors that thought they were buying AAA paper ,and the liar loan borrowers were just fraudulent real estate speculators ,but there was a certain amount of borrowers that were simply
victims of the fraudulent market .
I’m sure many people didn’t know that they were in competition
with fraudulent buyers or investors or that the loans weren’t being underwritten according to any reasonable standards ,or that investors were duped into buying junk paper that was rated AAA . The very sources of funds for lending were obtained under false premises and models in the secondary market . I should say that the risk models were defective.
While I agree with you that the REIC had unbelievable selling points during the mania that no reasonable person would believe if they were thinking at all ,still it doesn’t take away the fact that some people would just not perceive that it would be possible that such a real estate Ponzi-scheme could
of been pushed by parties that had a duty to protect the deposits of Nations and other peoples money .
Thanks DD for the correction . Your point is funny by the way .
Your point is funny by the way .
I love you guys!
BTW, I am thankful that because of HBB and nice posters with encouraging ideas, we negotiated a lower rent for the yr.
$250 less. YIPPEE.
Just signed the lease today, AND got a better deal on doing a massive fix on my 95 camry wagon which will last at least another 50k miles. Saving me more $. Thanks HBB and friends.
Ben is getting $ for a t shirt- Thanks Ben
I love reading the preceding thread. Jim and Housing Wizard were trying to talk about real estate and the rest of us were interrupting with irrelevant imaginary observations.
No, we never had a Heloc or pulled money out. Husband put $40k down on the place in 2001. The values have fallen so much from what they were that the prices in our sub have retreated from the mid $170’s to the $110’s to $130’s, but a lot of homeowners in here are now trying to sell for $105k to $110k, so that’s approximately a 40% drop for us….Michigan has extremely depressed housing prices. Thus, the value of a fixed-rate mortgage. If we were to try to sell it at this point, we’d have to market it for about $125,000. It’s pointless to try to do that. I’m retiring in about 5 1/2 years. Either prices will have started upward a little, or we can rent it out. Mortgage payment & rental price are about the same, and we go through a very good company which sends us decent tenants. We’re very experienced landlords, so it isn’t much trouble for us. For people that put 3% down and have an adjustable, it’s foreclosure time in Michigan. We’ve lost most of the downpayment at present, but we can rent it out and deduct the mortgage costs plus depreciation on the unit for some ( 26 ? I think - not sure ) years, so it would be a wash for us eventually. We’d make back the $40k down after many, many years, but of course, inflation will have taken it’s toll. Luckily, we got out of other real estate when the market was high, so actually we did all right compared to numerous bankrupt landlords/property owners. Am I sorry he bought this house ? ( This was a few years prior to our marriage ). Yes. Is it something we can live through? Yes, sure. Do I like the house and the neighborhood ? Yes. Life goes on. Our health is relatively stable to good ( his is stable, mine is pretty good), our 401k’s are intact because we rolled them into fixed-rate assets/money markets before the crash, our daughter is doing well and is engaged and employed, I have a good job, he has a pretty good income stream from retirement benefits/S.S. disability, and we’re more fortunate than 90% of the people around us, as far as I can tell. I feel very lucky. We donated to several charities this year and are helping a young man with kidney failure with groceries since he has almost nothing. God has been kind to us, and we are trying to give some back…
The house is worth about 35-40% less than my spouse (before we got married) paid for it in 2001, just prior to the peak of housing prices around here in 2003-2004 or so, never had a Heloc or refinace except for a lower mortgage rate, never took any cash out, etc., and he put $40K down on it. It’s just worth 35-40% ( by some estimates worth even less ) than it was when he bought it 8 years ago. Bad investment, bad timing, bad luck, whatever. Our retirement home is paid for and is rented out because it is too far away for me to drive to work from…
Silverback,
I think the posters who doubted the current price neglected to note that you are in Michigan. My heart goes out to you and your husband. It sounds like you are making the best of a not-so-good situation.
Best wishes to you and your family!
Hmmm….I wonder if this is Oly Gal? I remember her saying something about her fuzzy blonde head onr time.
http://www.travelblog.org/Photos/1234730.html
Sales of new homes forecast to rise 2 percent
New home sales expected to grow 2 percent in October, rebounding after decline in September.
WASHINGTON (AP) — Sales of new homes are expected to post a modest increase in October, reinforcing data this week that showed the real estate market is regaining its footing after a dramatic collapse.
The Commerce Department’s report on October new home sales, to be released Wednesday at 10 a.m. EST, is forecast to show a 2 percent increase to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 410,000, from 402,000 in September, according to economists polled by Thomson Reuters.
Since the report reflects signed contracts to buy homes, rather than completed sales, new home buyers in October were acting before lawmakers this month decided to extend the tax credit for first-time buyers and expand it for existing homeowners.
Now that the credit will cover contracts signed by April 30, “we’ll probably see new home sales trend higher over the next two to three months, perhaps fairly strongly,” said Paul Dales, U.S. economist at Capital Economics Ltd.
The building industry lobbied hard for the tax credit extension, and builders have been feeling better about their business prospects these days.
Last month, Ryder Homes of Nevada Inc. resumed construction on houses at two of its communities around Reno. “We’re finding people aren’t coming in willing to wait six months,” said Rob Dunbar, Ryder’s land development manager.
“We’re finding people aren’t coming in willing to wait six months,” said Rob Dunbar, Ryder’s land development manager”.
That’s because people are smart and they know real estate always/only goes up. What happen was just an anomaly, and they want to get in before the next big huge monster run up. Which may occur at any moment. Besides Suzanne researched it.
The mania is not dead yet. More time is needed.
Six months would be after the tax credit expired.
A Little Lame Cherry pre Holiday Treat, Anyone?
Without further delay, we present the Obama discovery of economic recovery, when it is and it is not, but is the dream of a thousand little Obamalings hoping their boy failure will save them.
Quotes:
“The worst recession since the 1930s is very likely over, but the economy’s return to good health will take time, Fed officials and economists say.”
Wow - that is an interesting liberal way of putting it, when the 1930’s “recession” was called the Great Depression. So the real translation is America has an Obama Great Depression and the economy is sick.
“Unlike past rebounds that were driven by the spending of everyday Americans, this one appears to hinge on spending by businesses, foreigners and - until it runs out - the government.”
Interesting that the “rebound” has nothing to do with consumer spending. The fact is the “spending” is massive debt increases by the Obama Geithner government, with the only “spending” by foreigners being Chinese buying Obama debt so they can beat the hell out of their Chinese patriots, as Obama cares nothing on human rights, with businesses we find out in the same article that business is not spending anything at all in this “recovery”.
“If consumers clam up, the economy could tip back into recession. President Barack Obama recently cautioned that the economy could suffer a “double dip” downturn.”
There is no “if” consumers clam up as consumers are still clammed up in spending. That means a double dip DEPRESSION is going to occur in 2010.
“Much of the economy’s return to growth last quarter reflected federal support for spending on homes and cars.”
This is the condition which Germany and Japan were scolding Bearick Obama on in his “bubble economics” which is nothing but massive debt increases paid by American savers, with their money transferred to Obama JP Morgan globalist financier cronies and his Government Motors union thugs.
That is called another name in Somalia - “piracy”!
“Businesses also trimmed stockpiles of goods by $133.4 billion last quarter, slightly more than initially estimated.”
This is the most distressing element of the Obama propaganda piece as whenever businesses are trimming stockpiled goods, it means that they do not have the money to purchase commodities. It is the worst of situations for an economy as business or manufacturing industry is not purchasing from other suppliers as they are in financial ruin.
It means that an inflationary tick is driving up supply even if there is no demand, much like consumers are noting that prices in advertisements are leaping up in this holiday season. This is Obamanomics inflation when the government cheapens money so that all products cost more due to the spiral of foreign energy imports and too much currency floating around so prices increase.
That is a massive amount in billions for businesses to deplete their reserves. America could be looking next to an industrial manufacturing implosion of the few businesses left in America still operating.
“Millions have yet to feel a benefit from the recovery in the form of a new job or even an easier time getting a simple loan. Even those with jobs are reluctant to go on a spending spree. The values of their homes and 401(k)s have not fully recovered.”
Another profoundly odd statement as if multiple millions of Americans are not benefiting from a “recovery” then it is not a recovery at all.
No job creation and lack of credit for loans, means not a recovery but a depression cycle and a tightening of money supply as creditors are still not willing to accept risks as they are in tight financial constraints.
Homes with depressed prices and the pirated 401k’s reveal that there is nothing there for Americans in equity. That means no consumer spending as no jobs will be created for 5 years it is estimated, under Obama, and home sales, except for the Obama bubble which will burst again are a valueless feature as a “recovery” item.
Whatevahs. Michelle looked stunning last night in her dress. That is the top story on all the morning shows so I assume it must be important.
Oh and did you hear they have a puppy too?
I sure Michelle’s dress report had many folks sitting on the edge of their chairs. However the real news that enthralled many more was that…. Donny Osmond won dancing with the stars, and the poor Osborne girl finished third.
I have a feeling a solid majority of people who watch Dancing With Stars also voted for Michelle’s husband. Droolling blithering idiots who get excited by “celebrities” dancing also get excited when “celebrities” with no discernible talents or accomplishments other than reading teleprompters well run for office. They will get rewarded next season as the word on the street is Ricky Hollywood (aka Levi Johsnton, aka Sarah Palin’s daughter’s baby daddy) will be a contestant.
And the country falls further down the drain.
This is coming from a guy that sleeps with a picture of Ronald Reagan. Bwahahaha. Oh, the stupidity. It burns.
Worshiping people, of any type, for any reason, is horribly misguided and leads to all sorts of stupid/horrible decisions. Celebs/politicians/etc. Does not matter, they are just people, and should be judged on their actions, just like everyone else. Putting someone up on a pedestal (Ronald Regan), deserving or not, does nothing to help this country move forward.
Hardy har har. As usual the response from you is completely unrelated to the topic at hand with a dose of strawman thrown in for good measure.
So, when did you stop hitting your wife?
Congrats Eddie, you get the Asinine Strawman Post of the day. Come on up and get your ASPy award.
It doesn’t surprise me Donny won Dancing with the Stars. If you want a little fun, look up “White and Nerdy” on YouTube. It is by far Weird Al’s best video, and Donny Osmond’s Nerdy Dance totally steals the show.
I have a feeling a solid majority of people who watch Dancing With Stars also voted for Michelle’s husband. Droolling blithering idiots who get excited by “celebrities”
I’ll tell you why I voted for Obama. After eight years of the Village Idiot I was impressed by the man - an acrtual law scholar and someone who can express himself intelligently in the english language - Awesome!
Yes, I’m disappointed, but I was put off by McCain’s humping his shoulders and canting incessantly, “My friends, my friends” - it reminded me of Mexican street hawkers in Nogales. I got the distinct impression that McCain just wanted to get his name in the history books as President. Then there was the memory failure on the houses and the flailing about on the financial crisis - less than inspiring, to say the least.
And then when they nominated Polar Barbie as his running mate, there was no way in hell I could vote Republican.
I couldn’t go for R Paul because as a supposed libertarian, his views on abortion are contradictory.
And no, I’ve never watched Dancing with the Stars.
I got the distinct impression that McCain just wanted to get his name in the history books as President.
There’s a huge article in Rolling Stone about that. His daddy and granddaddy were 4-star Admirals and the only way John III could outrank them was to be voted CiC.
What lavi d said.
There’s a huge article in Rolling Stone about that. His daddy and granddaddy were 4-star Admirals and the only way John III could outrank them was to be voted CiC.
Assuming daddy and grampa are both dead, that makes it (the desire to be pres) borderline psychotic.
McCain (even though I voted for him) was very disappointing. He also spoke of bailout for both irresponsible banks AND homedebtors! There was little difference between him and Obama.
There was little difference between him and Obama.
In performance - we’ll never know. In style and presentation, worlds.
Obama was a celbrity that fooled 52 pc of the country. Had his name been Joe Davis and white with the same resume he would have been laughed out of town when announcing his run for office. And the last 10 months has proven this beyond any doubt.
Had his name been Joe Davis and white with the same resume he would have been laughed out of town when announcing his run for office.
Unfortunately, I find this entirely plausible.
In the good old days, Tom Delay’s butt wiggling would have been covered by a black box. Take me back the the 50’s please.
Personally, I was pleased to Tom Delay come out of the closet. The GOP would be much more palatable if they’d all just come clean. It must get burdensome to be hiding their own proclivities while demonizing everyone elses.
Projecting again Exy? Are there openly gay union thugs?
Just speakin the truth again Eddietard. You know how that public restroom tapdance makes you look like a hypocrite don’t you…
Oh right, because one Republican did it, that means all of them do it. i know it’s hard for a union thug to get these complex issues so I won’t hold it against you. Now go have some more kool-aid.
Oh right, because one Republican did it, that means all of them do it.
Eddie - STFU
Like little children on a playground. (Sticks thumbs in ears, wiggles fingers) Nyaah, nyaah, nyaah! (Puts tongue out and exhales air to set up lip vibration) Phbhthbhthbhth!
Geez guys, grow up! I mean all of you.
“Oh right, because one Republican did it, that means all of them do it.”
Right on, man!
R-cans = faggots
Limpbaugh = closet hom0
Hannity = men’s room shark
etc etc etc
EddieTard….. It seems like there’s a union thug living in your head rent free.
Old terminology- “Great Depression”
New terminology- “Enhanced Recession”
I don’t need no stinking Black Friday flier. I’m giving my wife the same thing I did last year. Cold hard C-A-S-H. I will hand her an envelope and tell her, “spend it however you like”. I am going to wait until after Christmas and buy a netbook. That is my gift. Until then we will enjoy the lights, drink a little and live a stress-free Christmas season. I hope you can do the same.
I’m giving your wife the same thing I did last year, too.
ZING!
She asked if this year you could step it up a couple sizes.
No problem. Does Lane Bryant have any Black Friday deals?
Whoa ho ho ho!
That one belongs in the HBB comeback Hall of Fame.
Not really. The original quip implied that Muggy slept with NYCboy’s wife, or at least that is where NYCBoy took it. Now we have Muggy buying clothes for NYCBoy’s wife for no apparent reason. This is a little odd.
Anyway, bye all. Happy turkey day. I am thankful this year that the worst that can possibly happend to my housing situation is that I end up renewing my lease for no increase. And that I have a job. And that my knee is all better. And that my swine flu related lingering cough is nearly all gone. Etc.
Off to the airport!
“The original quip implied that Muggy slept with NYCboy’s wife”
C’mon! You’re the lawyer! My original quip was open-ended.
And then when NYCityBoy steered it towards size, I steered it back at his wife. I’m with John on this one.
ZING!
Explaining your own joke dulls the edge a bit.
Besides, I doubt that NYCboy’s spousal unit really wants to see you in another one of those lame Lane Bryant outfits, even if you get one that fits you better.
OOOWWWW!
I think she’d like both some cash and your thingie, mighty as it is….
You give your wife cash?!! Where do you leave it, on the dresser or on the nightstand?
What the hell? I thought we/the world were back on track. The recession was behind us, so who needs propping any more.
IMF Gets $600 Billion Credit Line to Help in Financial Crises.
Nov. 25 (Bloomberg) — The International Monetary Fund said it will have access to a credit line of up to $600 billion to make loans during financial crises after contributing countries agreed to fold commitments into one pool.
The agreement, yet to be approved by the IMF board, adds as many as 13 members from the current 26 to the so-called New Arrangements to Borrow, including emerging nations China, Russia, Brazil and India, the IMF said in an e-mailed statement.
The decision “marks an important moment for multilateralism and the fund, which will help the IMF’s effectiveness in its response to crises,” Managing Director Dominique Strauss-Kahn said in yesterday’s statement.
The deal goes beyond a pledge by leaders of the Group of 20 nations to contribute up to $500 billion to a credit arrangement that’s currently worth $54 billion, the IMF said. The worst financial crisis since the Great Depression prompted more nations to seek aid from the fund, created after World War II to help ensure the stability of the global monetary system.
They are all still doing “lines”. That’s what junkies do.
china is still emerging? what happens when they’re all the way out?
College graduates struggle to land dream job.
Campus News ~ Houston online.
Only three months ago Dixie Patton graduated on the fast track to success. Today she is struggling to pay bills while working two jobs as a waitress.
“I worry that my life-my future-is on hold,” she says.
Patton acquired a job before receiving an associate accounting degree from Blinn in June. The future had appeared bright but then the lay-offs came and unemployment began to rise.
“They gave me the notice six weeks before I was laid-off so that I could train the other girls to do my job,” she recalls.
Patton remained hopeful that she would find another job, but nobody was hiring. As a last resort, she took a job at Sonic Drive-in for temporary employment.
Then her fiancée was laid-off. However, even though Patton took on a second job, their bills still exceed their income.
She is not alone.
The unemployment rates continue to rise and college graduates are finding themselves overeducated for the jobs they take, or are returning to college to pursue a different degree.
Al Rampmeier, CEO of Express Personnel, leads one of the largest staffing services in the United States. He has made a career through finding people employment, but the job is becoming more difficult as the country’s economy continues to landslide.
“There are a tremendous number of people looking for jobs but there are no jobs. Their all overseas.”
As the applications continue to pile up on Rampmeier’s desk, small businesses that once could have provided solutions are now closing their doors.
“All we see are retails and restaurants but what graduate wants to work there?”
Dixie honey, an associate degree in accounting is about as useful as a PhD in Medieval French Literature. It’s not the economy that’s holding you back.
Nope- an associate degree is much more valuable than a PhD in Medieval French Literature.
Doh! An associates degree in accounting. I need more coffee….
No, wrong I believe Ol’Bubba. With a PhD in almost anything, you can get a job teaching classes at your local junior collage on an as-needed, non-tenured basis, which is more than Dixie can do. A job’s a job, I sez.
lots of competition for those teaching jobs, always has been.
I’m so frustrated with my niece. She called last weekend to ask if I would help join a sorority. Yeesh. I have been helping her with her college expenses not covered by her scholarships. I said no. Now she’s pissed. So am I, but I couldn’t sleep last night over it. Can somebody talk me down?
So much competetion, that being a bookeeper might well pay better. A tenured job at a major university is a DREAM* job, rather like being a star in Hollywood. And so there are alot of people trying to get those. Adjunct faculty at community colleges are like those struggling actresses whose main income comes from waiting tables, rather than their occasional walk-on roles. People desprately hoping for their dream allow the employer to pay them non-living wages.
*In this case the dream is to have a job doing what you love for a good salary, surrounded by other tweedy intellectuals, instead of lifestyles of the rich and famous.
Joining a sorority is probably the least expensive part of being a member.
Sorry about your neice’s greedy attitude, REhobbyist. Maybe it’s time to have a little talk with her about “needs” and “wants”. I remember my 5th grade teacher telling me (after she had retired ) about a problem she and her husband had had with some of his relatives they were helping in post-war Germany. They had sent clothing, food, and some other hard-to-get items, but they stopped helping when the daughter sent a letter asking for a wedding dress and money for other niceties. Velma told me firmly, ” When we got that letter, we stopped sending them anything more. I got married in a nice suit with a corsage, and she can to.”
Lord, lord….”too”.
“Now she’s pissed. So am I. But I couldn’t sleep last night over it.”
If she were a guy I would suggest sending her to Parris Island for her education.
Depending on which sorority she’s trying to join, the money she spends could be a good investment when it comes time to look for jobs after graduation. I’ve been out of college almost 15 years and I still network with my fraternity bothers. I introduced one of them a to a former client of mine who was looking for a director or marketing and he ended up getting hired.
Always helps to have that network of people.
Most of my old fraternity brothers drank themselves to death. I find it more useful to network with their Ex’s.
I still network with my fraternity bothers.
Your free market “meritocracy” at work.
Most of my old fraternity brothers drank themselves to death.
It’s unfortunate that Eddie wasn’t in your frat.
Leave his wife out of this.
Eddie being a fraternity boy speaks volumes to me.
REhobbyist, tell your niece that sororities are a useless social frivolity. If she really wants to develop good connections she should join a professional society that collects modest dues from its members and has some purpose other than partying.
BTW, I am becoming convinced that you and I must have been separated at birth. My nieces’ college educations are being funded by me. Fortunately neither of them has asked me for more. Yet.
Eddie being a fraternity boy speaks volumes to me.
——
Not sure if I should take that as an insult or compliment coming from one of you people.
“I’ve been out of college almost 15 years and I still network with my fraternity bothers.”
Are you and frat boy W secret gay buddies?
“Their all overseas.”
———
Their? Their? Are you kidding me? Does nobody, even a freaking newspaper editor know the correct use of their, there, they’re anymore? And people wonder why the country is in a death spiral to 3rd World status.
I had to send in a correction to a NY Times story a few months back. They had a feature about why the weather in the Midwest was so odd, due to “shifts in the Gulf Stream”. I had to inform them that the Gulf Stream was an ocean current in the North Atlantic and maybe they intended to reference a “shift in the jet stream”. They quickly changed it online but didn’t put in an “edited” comment.
I noted the same Gulf/Jet stream confusion in a story in the Washington post. I forwarded it to a friend who works at NOAA with the tag line “science degrees not required for journalists.”
My husband used be the lab chief at a manufacturer’s laboratory. He had a secretary named Janice who used to “help” him fix things in his dictation. One time, he had written a report and had used the word “oriented”. When she got done with the report, various items were “orientated” toward other items. Luckily, he caught it before the report was sent out to company headquarters. She was kind of upset when he corrected her…
Science degree? I call BS. I have an advanced degree in science, and I most of the science I use on a daily basis (outside work) I learned in high school. Gulf Stream/Jet Stream is covered in earth science: 9th grade.
Too true oxide. But you WERE presumably INTERESTED in science. Ask yourself, how much did you average classmate learn in 9th grade Earth science?
I remember having an argument with an electrical engineer at work who maintained that OF COURSE oxygen was the strongest oixdizer possible, and I was trying to convince him he was wrong with my dimly rememberd HS chemistry on redox reactions.
Technically it’s electronegativity, and the strongest oxidizing element is fluorine (11th grade). In grad school I learned that there are stronger super-acid oxidizers, but I would have to look that up. But that’s academic. Oxygen and oxygen-based acids are certainly the most common.
. When she got done with the report, various items were “orientated” toward other items.
I found out recently, to my embarrassment, that “orientated” is an accepted spelling of “oriented”.
On ESPN last night I watched the Cincinnati basketball coach talking about how he’s helped one of his players over a rough personal patch.
“It’s been a tough road road for he and I.” Arrgh!
I still wonder how many dummies cringed while they watched a Hillary speech a few years back when she correctly said “… for Bill and me.”
“orientated” is an accepted spelling of “oriented”.
…only from years and years of misuse, IMO. The dictionaries have to capitulate to common usage eventually.
Hunh, Lavi, I didn’t know that. Well, he didn’t want “orientated” in his report sometime in the 1980’s, he wanted “oriented”, and that’s what she was supposed to type.
Of course by Midwest as I learned yesterday, they were referring to Pennsylvania anyhow.
Amen brother.
With the math and language skills I see all the times, it’s sometimes hard to blame companies for outsourcing. This isn’t a new problem either. I remember 30 years ago my boss complaining that high school graduates did not know how to make chamge.
Couldn’t agree more. Show me someone with high level math/science skills that can’t get a job (well, and that’s not a total f-up).. There’s always a critical shortage of those people, and probably always will be; at least until the pay for those positions rises to the point where it makes sense for people to pursue those degrees. If you’re a hot shot looking to make a ton of money (and you’re very intelligent) what are you going to major in; finance, math, or biology?
And my boss was just complaining the other day about how high school graduates can’t even spell ‘change’.
Spent a week in “A” school calculating the “bend-radius” for various thicknesses of steel and aluminum alloys.
In the subsequent 30 years, I’ve used all these math skills about three times (max)…….right up there with “rib stitching”
“Their all overseas.”
That could be a proper sentence used in a certain stilted context.
Ya think?
That could be a proper sentence used in a certain stilted context. (Their all overseas)
Context: Old English court:
Question: What did they leave and where did they leave it?
Answer: Their all overseas.
?
“The unemployment rates continue to rise and college graduates are finding themselves overeducated for the jobs they take, or are returning to college to pursue a different degree.”
Here’s a clue. You know all those “hard” classes in college that nobody wanted to take? Things like discrete math, calculus, biology, chemistry, etc? Well, let me tell you, there are plenty of jobs in the fields that require high levels of skill in all those areas. I work in a “computer science” position, and we’d hire 10 people tomorrow if they had the right skills. There’s a dramatic shortage of people with the mid-level math skills (calculus), high level comp sci skills, and speak English as their native tongue.
But, of course, why bother with the hard classes when you could just breeze through some finance courses and then make 500K a year ripping off the American public. No offense to any business majors here (it was my minor, and I know many people who are a LOT smarter than I am with business degrees), but the level of difficulty in business courses was NOTHING like the level of difficult in the hard sciences. Many times in math/comp sci classes I wondered if I was “capable” of understanding what the professor was trying to illustrate. As in, did I have the mental HP to follow his line of thinking. That never happened (or even came close) in any other courses I had in college.
There’s a dramatic shortage of people with the mid-level math skills (calculus), high level comp sci skills, and speak English as their native tongue.
In theory I meet those qualifications. In practice I find that what they really want is someone who lives for that stuff rather than just somebody who is qualified, willing to do the work, but whose passions lie elsewhere. So I suspect you need to add additional qualifications to the list such as “would do this stuff even if they weren’t getting paid, which not coincidentally works out well for us”. Otherwise you probably wouldn’t have any problem filling the positions.
Luckily for me, my current manager seems to be OK with our current arrangement where I have no unreasonable career advancement expectations and he has no unreasonable commitment expectations.
I work in a “computer science” position, and we’d hire 10 people tomorrow if they had the right skills.
Please, everyone knows now that there are no shortages in the hi-tech industry. Even the H1-B allotment has yet to be exhausted this year after 7 months.
If you truly have 10 openings, please post a link to your company website, I am sure there are several HBB’ers in need of (better) employment.
Skip,
I don’t want to post a link to my company website, but if you post your e-mail address, I’ll be happy to send over the information.
We actually have 30+ openings in our IT engineering departments. Most of these are consultant level positions, and we are almost constantly in need of people with certain skill sets (Cisco (CCIE), high level VMware skills (VCP/VCDX), high level SAN skills). We know lots of people with these skills, but it’s very difficult to pull any of these people out of their current employment situations.
Finding people who have skills isn’t the biggest problem (although it’s not easy). Finding people with those skills who are willing to leave their current employer, who can make presentations to CIO level customers, and who are willing to travel extensively….. That’s a very difficult position to fill (or at least it has been in our experience).
Finding people with those skills who are willing to leave their current employer, who can make presentations to CIO level customers, and who are willing to travel extensively….. That’s a very difficult position to fill (or at least it has been in our experience).
There’s a very simple solution to your ‘problem.’ Increase the compensation you offer by an order of magnitude, advertise it widely.
If that doesn’t work, repeat the process until your problem is solved.
This whole topic falls under the heading, “If all you pay is peanuts, all you will get are monkeys.”
who can make presentations to CIO level customers, and who are willing to travel extensively…
I’ve done this. My VMWare and SAN skills are nascent and CISCO non-existent, however I have very strong UNIX/Web/Database experience. (Not to mention my nunchuk skills)
I’d just about kill for a 75% travel/telecommute job right about now.
If you’ve got anything like that, send me your info as well, please.
My son is a math major. Some of the math education majors that are in his classes complain that calculus is too hard for them.
What the heck is a “math education major”?
One presumes people who want to teach math….and honestly, how many high school math teachers really NEED calculus? Lets face it, most high schools have at most one or two calculus classes, and nothing beyond that. So you need ONE teacher who knows calculus and several who have a very good grasp of trignometry. ISTR that we’ve had this discussion here a few months ago.
ISTR that we’ve had this discussion here a few months ago.
Sometimes we need to hear it again, as now we know what
Fink is looking for, and lavid may get a better job.
Its all good.
Heck we hear lots of old stuff in a deja vu manner!
Math ed dead-ends around first year math. So, one year calc, plus college algebra, college trig, analytic geometry and something with probability and stats ought to do it for HS math.
I’m thinking that you ought to at least get through differential equasions and calc 3 to be a high school level teacher in mathmatics. Your understanding of problems and use of mathmatics is dramatically increased. Also should have a good statistics class as well.
My theory is you are most effective when your understanding is much deeper than a potential student.
So, you go back and look at more basic mathmatics and have multiple levels of understanding. Student level, what to learn at the next level and some sense of application.
Of course when you hit graduate school you are basically heading into the wilderness though.
Yes.
But the Peter Principle suggests if your kids’ HS math teachers made it through diff-eq, you are lucky indeed…
My sis is a math educator with a mathematics (not ed) degree. This is definitely the way to go if you want to teach math above the high school level. I am unconvinced you really need to know much mathematics to teach K-12.
I worry that my life-my future-is on hold
At what point do people figure out this IS their future? And then what do they do?
At what point do people figure out this IS their future? And then what do they do?
Bytch about the past?
Ain’t that the truth.
Oh, and drink heavily. And repeat themselves.
One of the signs of growing up is ceasing to have parts of your internal monolog start out “When I grow up….” This IS your life, not some prequel…
Yeah, we’re ALL looking for that dream job.
Calpers mulls dumping BlackRock on real estate: report
Wed Nov 25, 2009
(Reuters) - Calpers, the biggest U.S. public pension fund, is considering dumping asset manager BlackRock Inc (BLK.N) as its real estate consultant, the Wall Street Journal said, citing people familiar with the matter.
California Public Employees’ Retirement System’s investment of $500 million into Peter Cooper Village and Stuyvesant Town, an 11,000-apartment Manhattan housing complex, is widely considered worthless, the paper said, without identifying the sources.
The housing complex is owned by Tishman Speyer Props LLC and a unit of BlackRock.
The paper had reported earlier that the housing complex is on the verge of a loan default.
Calpers paid BlackRock $12.6 million in real estate advisory fees last year, the paper said.
The real-estate review began several months ago and could be completed as soon as year end, the paper said, citing people familiar with the process.
Brad Pacheco, a Calpers spokesman, told the paper the $200 billion pension fund wouldn’t “speculate on the future of our real-estate relationships until the review is complete.”
The new adviser to Calpers will be Lereah and Associates, Inc.
The Tishman store front that had the charity used book store in it for two weeks back in October is still empty. Actually, they haven’t even taken off the lettering for the charity event, so it looks like nothing is moving in soon.
This is on the block of Pennsylvania Avenue between the White House and World Bank right next to a Starbucks. Lots of foot traffic from office workers and tourists. There is no way this spot should be empty for any length of time in a healthy economy.
Hmm…BlackRock is both a consultant to CalPers AND an owner of the purported “investment” property. Isn’t that a conflict of interest?
Isn’t that a conflict of interest?
Doesn’t seem to bother any of the ptb - either way.
Getting an mba seems to include how to do business unethically and make gobsmack bazillions and still sleep well.
“Calpers paid BlackRock $12.6 million in real estate advisory fees last year, the paper said.”
I’ll flush their money down the toilet for a couple of grand.
Here’s the advice they need:
“Sell as much RE as you possibly can; it’s going to go down for years and you need to divest yourself immediately”
“Don’t buy any more RE for a few years; and, even then, don’t buy much of it. If you need an inflation hedge, buy gold”.
Please send along my 12M dollar consulting check..
Seriously, WTF is Calpers doing? I thought they were a pension fund? Sounds like they are trying to be a hedge fund; levering up the money of the Cali worker to try to “make it back” on the next big gamble.
A pension fund like that is a disaster waiting to happen. They should be permitted only to buy the safest of assets (govt bonds, other muni bonds, etc). Why on earth would a public fund like that be investing in RE?
Pension funds probably invested in RE under the guise of diversification. In NYS, it was under the guise of community reinvestment.
Yes NYS pension plan lost i think $250 million on the Peter Cooper deal too.
Associated Press: “Even with signs of strength, economists worry the recovery could falter if consumer spending, which makes up 70 percent of economic activity, drops in the face of unemployment that is already at the highest point in 26 years and is expected to keep rising.”
Consumers reluctance to spend like they did earlier in this decade annoys Washington cheerleaders who are trying to pump up the economy. But what’s a consumer to do? If he/she is carrying debt - especially high interest credit card debt - the smart thing to do is pay it off as fast as possible. Make a game out of becoming frugal. Be as Scrooge-like as necessary at Christmas. Going into debt just to be perceived as generous is a needless step down the road to ruin.
It is not unpatriotic to be solvent!
The weather people have one of their storm studs stationed at ORD this week. Judging from the footage they’ve aired yesterday and today, the airport traffic is showing anything but a recovery.
Having worked at ORD during the Go-Go 90s I know exactly what Terminal 3 should look like during this week. Unless everyone has suddenly started flying out of MKE or MDW - or unless they all plan to rush through at once later today - there’s trouble ahead for the airlines. In the 1990s the peeps started flying earlier and earlier before the holiday - so this whole week should have seen more traffic.
“storm studs”
Dang, that’s a keeper.
Don’t be sexist there. Equal time:
hurricane honeys…
blizzard babes…
Many people, like myself, have learned to never fly through ORD unless they want to spend days in that hell hole.
Somehow Stephanie Abrams looks a lot better on location than she does in the studio. When the recent storm came ashore in the Florida panhandle she was standing on the beach. Then she backed well away from the camera down to the water’s edge and finally came trotting back toward the camera. All I could think about was the movie “10.”
“Congress can’t hear. Bribery makes them deaf.”
~ Lucianne Goldberg
Anyone doing anything totally nuts for the holidays? I’m just laying low with the family here… no big plans.
Thanksgiving dinner for two. No family, no friends,
no takers. Just us and the dogs and cat. Perfect.
same here, rancher…
Happy Thanksgiving, HBBers. My family will eat today because one son is leaving tomorrow to see his girlfriend. Tomorrow we will eat again at my sister’s. Yum. Pumpkin pies in the oven smell good.
I’ll sell my shares of Ford today that I bought exactly one year ago.
We were invited to five different households for
Thanksgiving. What are you going to do?
Will be meeting all my daughters and future son-in laws for dinner at the oldest daughter’s place (….a rental….).
I’m sure I’ll be hearing about all the bat$hit-crazy stuff my ex is doing……..latest headline from Rumor-Control is that she has commissioned an oil painting of her cat.
We need a seperate “Bits Bucket” on Monday for the crazy holiday stories/reports.
Now that’s something I could spend money on. An oil portrait of my cat…..if I had one ! Totally funny.
I’m mad. No one’s doing anything about Thanksgiving here. Ungrateful is what it is.
There’s no black Friday. You can’t get cranberry sauce anywhere. When I remind them of the Pilgrims at Jamestown or how Sacajawea helped cook turkey and stuff they look at me like I’m nuts.
I bet you’d get an interesting response if you said Columbus was a great man.
I bet you’d get an interesting response if you said Columbus was a great man.
On that subject, most Brazilians think differently than Americans. They don’t have the guilt or anger about that kind of stuff. They don’t like to feel sad or mad too long. They try to be happy.
Also related to this attitude is that the Portuguese were different than the Spanish in regard to some of their social interactions right or wrong. It is a very racially diverse country.
P.S. I know Columbo was Italian.
How about Cortez, or Pizarro?
How about Cortez, or Pizarro?
Then they’d look at me funny and say; “Why do you keep asking me about Spanish people”?
Or if they knew more about it they might say that yea, the Spanish conquistadors were very aggressive. (muinto aggressivo)
Then they’d change the subject politely thinking that the gringo was too serious about stuff.
Nah - it’s just that the Pope gave Brasil to the Portugese.
Well it IS a country named after a nut. Seriously, when the Portugese landed they were like “Boy, lots of brazilnut trees here.”
It was named after a tree but a different tree, pau-brasil, genus: Caesalpinia, a tree used to make dye. The Brazil nut tree is of a different genus. genus: Bertholletia
There were a lot of the nut trees too.
Cabral’s ship returned to Portugal with a cargo of red dyewood, which had been gathered along the shore, and from the name of the wood, pau-brasil, the new land acquired the name Brazil.
http://www.nationsencyclopedia.com/Americas/Brazil-HISTORY.html#ixzz0XxwotoQW
I stand corrected. My dimly remembered high school school world history has done me wrong.
No turkey here on Cyprus (yes, there’s a double entendre lurking in there for you history buffs) so the wife is making homemade pizza! You gotta get what you can get when you can
“…so the wife is making homemade pizza!”
With olives on it no doubt. And a side salad with greek dressing?
Oil and vinegar only please. Thank you very much.
However one little delicacy I’ve begun to enjoy here is the breadsticks with olives baked into them. Who needs Ritz crackers when you have these babies!
Did my little double entendre get missed?
I caught it Al.
Sacajawea helped Lewis and Clark. Maybe you are recalling Pocahontas?
Sacajawea helped Lewis and Clark. Maybe you are recalling Pocahontas?
Good one too!
There were 2 intentional smart alekisms in my post. The Pilgrims at “Jamestown” and Sacajawea helping the Pilgrims.
Just having fun. But for history sake:
Sacajawea=Lewis And Clark
Pocahontas=Jamestown
Squanto=The Pilgrims (those were the days)
Happy Thanksgiving all!
And the original people were French in Florida land who got wiped out pronto. Then the ship landed on the cape in MA. Not Jamestown.
I love the new improved accurate history. Changes one’s paradigm.
Then the ship landed on the cape in MA. Not Jamestown.
I know, I was just making a joke.
But I did clarify after.
There were 2 intentional smart alekisms in my post. The Pilgrims at “Jamestown” and Sacajawea helping the Pilgrims.
my newly divorced father is coming to dinner (from wifey #3) & my Mom is coming as well
my parents have been divorced for 32 years
should be a full on dysfunctional family reunion
you can’t make this sh%t up I swear..
It all makes sense now.
LOL. I’ve been to a Christmas party like that in San Diego. A woman with her boyfriend was over. The woman’s ex husband was over. And their two grown children. Everyone was nice. It was cool and it was a small group of people.
Sounds twisted, but at least you won’t be bored
I’m heading to the in-laws for Thanksgiving. I’m planning on setting up Christmas decorations on Friday to keep me busy. Anything to avoid sheeple traffic on Friday.
I’m hearing of a lot of stores open on Thanksgiving this year, many more than in the past. It hints at desperation on the part of the retailers.
I am going to bake something good but I stopped going all out on food. When I was in my 20s all that rich food in my stomach would make my heart race and I could not sleep. Not healthy to be a glutton.
Relatives are scattered all over. I hardly ever travel on holidays purposely to avoid crowds. Avoiding crowds helps avoid catching illnesses or getting into fender benders.
I’m going home in mid-December for a weekend.
Dinner with husband, son, and oldest daughter. We will be eating late since she manages a fast food restaurant. They will be open for breakfast. Fortunately her store is nowhere near a mall. One store is across from a huge mall and will open at either 3 or 4 am.
Chicken dinner with immediate family members, only. The boringest Thanksgiving on record, and I am looking forward to it with delighted anticipation
‘Shouts, threats as as vie for new condos’
http://www.thestar.com/news/gta/article/730576–shouts-threats-as-agents-vie-for-new-condos?bn=1
Good old Toronto. Exerpt from the article:
By this morning, there were three separate lines of potential buyers, each claiming the right to have first crack at the condos.
I really just got on the blog to with everyone, tall and small, a HAPPY THANKSGIVING. Our daughter is flying in today, and I’m very excited. We’re having 8 people tomorrow at our table, so plenty to do. I with everyone a blessed day and wonderful memories. And even if it isn’t perfect, if you have a bite to eat and someone to share it with, then, it’s still Thanksgiving.
I think you type with a lisp.
NYCityBoy: I with you and your wife a happy Thankthgiving, too!
I’m wish you on that!
I don’t get it. I guess I should, but I don’t.
I with you a Merry Chrithmith too!
You said “I with everyone a blessed day”
t instead of s. He’s being funny, not mean.
You wrote “to with” rather than “to wish”. He’s being picky.
Oh gosh…sorry….I’m glad you pointed that out. I also did ‘to’ instead of ‘too’ above. I guess that my brain has been switched onto “phonetic” setting as I’ve gotten older. Anyway, I wish and with everyone a Happy Thankthgiving…
This reminds me, I still wildly approve PB’s ad hominem attacks on Bahney Fwank.
Huh?
You had a hate spree on him a few weeks back. You kept referring to him as “Bahney Fwank” out of pure anger. It was funny.
This was intended to be in the above “lisp” thread, but I missed.
How does a humorous reference to him as “Bawney Fwank” (reflecting his own pronounced lithsp) equate with a “hate spree”? Aren’t you taking your hyperbole a bit out of bounds with that suggestion?
I’ve told you a billion times - don’t use hyperbole!
“Aren’t you taking your hyperbole a bit out of bounds with that suggestion?”
Soo… you would call it a love spree then?
Lighten up man, just pointing out that it’s funny, and lisp-related.
Man, I’m 0/3 today.
Sorry, Muggy. I guess EddieTard, with all of his over-the-top mischaracterizations of what any poster he cares to strawmanize may have said, has me a bit on edge about vague references to “hate sprees.” For the record, I have nothing against gay Congressmen, so long as they don’t engage in banking scams.
Now this comes as a complete shock, who could have guessed.
Half of Banks’ Losses May Still Be Hidden: IMF Head
Wednesday, 25 Nov 2009
Half of the losses suffered by banks could still be hidden in their balance sheets, more so in Europe than in the United States, the International Monetary Fund’s chief, Dominique Strauss-Kahn, was quoted as saying on Tuesday.
In an interview with French newspaper Le Figaro, Strauss-Kahn also said the IMF thought the euro currency was probably a bit too strong.
“There are still some important losses that have not been unveiled,” Strauss-Kahn was quoted as saying in response to a question on banks, according to excerpts of the interview that were sent to media ahead of publication on Wednesday.
“It’s possible that 50 percent (of bank losses) are still hidden in their balance sheets. The proportion is greater in Europe than in the United States,” he said.
Banking sector = Enron writ large, with government enablers
So, are hidden bank losses inflationary, deflationary or neither?
I vote for deflationary because losses to banks translate to money disappearing back onto thin air from whence it came. This loss of money makes ant remaining money that much more scarce, thus more valuable.
I’m sure gold bugs and others will disagree. If so, I am interested in their reasoning.
ant remaining money = any remaining money
Deflationary until sterilized by the printing press technology,
at which point it morphs into devaluationary.
P.S. Devaluationary = great for gold prices, while it lasts (and I am anything but a gold bug
).
However, the short term crash in the dollar currently underway is unsustainable, as the Fed (including Bullard) have laden so many negatives on the dollar picture that it is bound for a near-term trend overshot, followed by subsequent trend reversion which will actually support the “strong dollar” rhetoric favored by Geithner et al.
Well we sure had no idea!
Hyosung to close tire cord plant in Va. ~ November 25, 2009
SCOTTSVILLE, Va. (AP) - Hyosung is closing its tire cord plant in Scottsville by the end of January.
Plant manager Roger Hutchins attributed the shutdown to the slumping economy and pressure from global manufacturers.
The plant’s 106 workers were notified of the shutdown Tuesday.
Scottsville Mayor John R. Snoddy IV says the plant has provided good jobs and a sense of pride and accomplishment to the area for many years.
Charlottesville Regional Chamber of Commerce President and CEO Timothy Hulbert says the plant is a significant employer in the region.
According to the Scottsville Museum, the Defense Plant Corporation built the facility in 1944. Hyosung acquired the plant in 2002.
I noticed a lot of houses sold in my area on zillow since march, it said 19. I had seen quite a bit of activity over the summer and wondered why anyone would be spending so much money on remodels and repairs. It dawned on me after I saw the sales on zillow, these homes were bought as investments as 15 of them sit empty,and 5 were fixed up.
Who is sitting on these loans? FHA perhaps?
Hang onto your hats boys and girls, we are in for another ride down the shoot if these homes don’t sell and I bet this is happening all around California.
This women tried to horn in on the gubmints job…
A German Robin Hood
Bank Worker Sentenced for Shifting Funds From Rich to Poor.
Spiegel OnLine
A bank worker who shifted money from the accounts of well-off customers to help cover the overdrafts of poorer ones has been sentenced in Germany. The media are describing the woman, who took no money for herself and is now repaying €1.1 million from a tiny pension, as a female Robin Hood.
The standard tale of Robin Hood is of a man who steals from the rich and gives to the poor. In a modern twist on the tale, a former manager of a German bank branch was given a 22-month suspended sentence Monday at a court in Bonn for moving money temporarily from the accounts of well-off customers to those of poor ones.
The 62-year-old woman, who has not been publicly identified, was charged with 117 counts of misappropriation. She was accused of granting overdrafts to customers who did not qualify for them and covering up her actions by shifting money into their accounts whenever the bank carried out its monthly overdraft audits. In doing so, she prevented the poorer clients from having their accounts shut down.
The state prosecutor’s office in Bonn said she shifted a total of €7.6 million ($11.3 million) from richer to poorer customers over a period of 14 months. The woman, who did not take a cent for herself, could have faced up to four years in prison.
She tried to transfer the money back once the audits were over, but that wasn’t always possible because some of the poorer customers had run up ever-increasing overdrafts. As a result, she was only able to transfer back €6.5 million of the €7.6 million she had siphoned off.
Well at least she tried. Hope she runs for office.
Solving Whose Problem?
by Thomas Sowell
No one will really understand politics until they understand that politicians are not trying to solve our problems. They are trying to solve their own problems– of which getting elected and re-elected are number one and number two. Whatever is number three is far behind.
Many of the things the government does that may seem stupid are not stupid at all, from the standpoint of the elected officials or bureaucrats who do these things.
No one pushed these reckless mortgage lending policies more than Congressman Barney Frank, who brushed aside warnings about risk, and said in 2003 that he wanted to “roll the dice” even more in the housing markets. But it would very rash to bet against Congressman Frank’s getting re-elected in 2010.
http://townhall.com/columnists/ThomasSowell/2009/11/24/solving_whose_problem?page=1
Lats night PBS Frontline did a new expose on credit cards. They interviewed TT Timmy. I post the link to his full interview in a second, but he said something a little surprising. He said that the repeal of Glass-Steagal did not contribute materially to the financial crisis. He instead stressed that non-bank entities were taking advantage of lax regulations. If you’re BoA, you have strict regs on lending. If you’re a “thrift” [wtf is a thrift??] you can get around those rules.
This sounds like a fundamental flaw in the regulatory system. It seems to me that you should be regulated according to what you do, not what you call yourself. If you lend money, you should be subject to lending regs, whether you’re a bank, thrift, S&L, broker, hedge fund, or whatever.
“If you’re Bof A, you have strict regs on lending.”
BAAAAAhahahahahahah!!! Strict regs on lending? B of A?
Baaahahahahahqha!!!!
(I love this blog; it’s soooo much funnier than stand-up.)
“If you’re Bof A, you have strict regs on lending.”
Much like the strict code of ethics for used house sellers.
What I hated about last night was they also made Chris Dodd out to be “our saviour”. Not one word on his shady deals. the toughest thing they asked him was about all the money he gets from the bank lobby, and he said “well, if they think that that’s going to make me vote one way or another, they’re mistaken”.
right
Part of a successful life as a Congressional scam artist is having a good PR machine to cover your tracks.
Here’s the link to the Geithner interview on PBS:
http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/pages/frontline/creditcards/interviews/geithner.html
Geithner is full of it when he in essence said that de-regulations and end of Glass-Steagall didn’t have anything to do with what happened .
Lets get serious . The unregulated lending world of Wall Street took over and the regulated banks ended up doing the same in order to compete
eventually . The regulated banks just didn’t have as much leverage
ability as the unregulated Wall Street lending machine .and regular banks were also se3lling their loans to Wall Street .
Amen, brother. Lying about the obvious won’t get you very far, even if you have the loudest megaphone and the biggest bully pulpit on the planet.
“If you’re looking for a sign that builders will need to start swinging their hammers again soon, this is it,” wrote Mike Larson, real estate analyst at Weiss Research.
Get Swingin’.
Considering the “extensive rennovations” since the 2005 purchase, Rob Lowe likely lost money on the recent sale of his SB home:
http://www.bergproperties.com/blog/actor-rob-lowe-sells-a-six-bedroom-house-in-montecito-ca-for-7-6m/
—–
The Los Angeles Times’ Ruth Ryon reported in April 2005 that the amount was $6 million, and that the house was purchased as a “temporary house” until Lowe and his wife had finished building their dream house.
—–
His dream house “incurrred significant wrath from his neighbors.”
And to think I thought he was cute in junior high…
And to think I thought he was cute in junior high…
Hysterical.
Update on the last house I made an offer on. It was originally listed in mid-$240s, dropped (in 2 or 3 price drops) to upper $230s. I offered $196K based on local comps and prices/sq. foot. Flat-out rejected, no counter.
It sold in October (gotta’ get that $8K tax credit!) for $233K with $14K seller assist - net $219K. Ticks me off for 2 reasons:
1) With that end result, they could have countered me.
2) Should I surmise that the buyers needed $22K help to buy this house? ($14K plus the $8K credit) If so, did they really have any business buying a $200K+ house?
What is a seller assist? Why not just sell for $14K less? Is the buyer going to pay $40K in principal and interest just so that the Realtor can get another 800 bucks in commission?
“What is a seller assist? Why not just sell for $14K less?”
The ‘buyers’ needed the $14K to make the 3.5% downpayment. In reality those clowns are 0 down and probably underwater already.
I just used my calculator. 3.5% of $233K is only a little over $8K. The got an extra $6K for other closing costs. They couldn’t even afford to pay the lawyer out of pocket.
Yup.
When I sold my house a year ago, I ended up doing the same thing. The buyers spent zip but still ended up buying a 200,000 house with seller’s assist of about 11000. Don’t worry about me, I didn’t lose much in the sell. May be 5 grands at most but wanted to get rid of the house for various reasons.
I am positive that the house will be on sell or foreclosure in few years.
Back in the day, 1988 to be exact, in another housing bust, I bought my house on what they called a “seller net zero” deal. Essentially, I assumed the sellers mortgage (a VA) and paid the realtor fee, excise tax, and other normal seller’s costs. So, the seller walked away without having to ponyup any money. Realtors were hungry then, so I told them I would only pay 3%, half of the normal fee. They hemed and hawed, said that wasn’t legal, but took the deal eventually.
Just to show that what’s going on today isn’t altogether unique, the seller had paid $139K for the house in 1985. The mortgage balance + other costs I paid =’d about $112,000. So, the house had declined in value about 20% in the three years the seller had owned the place, not including what he had spent for landscaping, fences and other required new home improvements.
Sound familiar?
The house today could probably be fire-saled for $240K, $250K in a reasonable sale period. It probably would have sold for $300K+ a couple of summers ago. So homeownership can be good or bad financially. Timing is everything.
There’s nothing new under the sun.
I don’t think that we can say that what we have today ,if you look at how many foreclosures there are ,is anything but the biggest Black Swan event that I have witnessed in my lifetime at least .
I just wish that they would of figured out better and fairer ways of absorbing the loss of the fake value market crashing ,than
picking the very culprits to be the ones bailed out .What about a discussion about how this happened anyway and go about the process of a overhaul ,so at least it can’t happen again . It’s really not acceptable to say things like ,”Nobody saw it coming “, these things happen ,”"it’s the boom/bust cycle’, ” FIRE”, “I need a no questions asked Blank Check of
700 billion to save the credit markets ,” “Regulation are anti–capitalism “, “Everybody else was doing it “, In spite of the regulatory agencies failing ,we are going to create a new regulatory body while allowing the same old Casino games ,”
” Wall Street and Banks are making profit now rah rah .”
What does Main Street burdens have to do with Corporate
America and Wall Street surviving this meltdown .
Comissions are on the net.
If you can get your hands on a dead tree copy of today’s WSJ, flip to p. C8 to catch a glimpse of a hard landing for commercial RE. Short version:
- This repeat sales index increased from 100 to 190 or so over the period from Jan 2000 through Jan 2008. Annualized rate of increase during the boom =
(1.9^(1/8)-1)*100 = 8.3 percent
- It fell from 190 to 110 from Jan 2008 through Nov 2009. Annualized rate of decrease since the bust began =
((11/19)^(12/23)-1)*100 = - 24.8 percent.
This is a hard landing in progress, and so far as I know, there is no plunge protection for commercial RE comparable to the Dough-4-Dumps program for residential.
* REAL ESTATE
* NOVEMBER 25, 2009
Commercial Prices Are at 2002 Levels
An index by Moody’s found that commercial real-estate prices have, on average, returned to levels seen seven years ago. The Moody’s/REAL Commercial Property Price Index fell 3.9% in September to 109.61 from 114.06 in August. Based on the index, prices were 37% lower than in September 2008 and 42.9% below the October 2007 peak. The index is based on repeat sales of the same properties across the U.S. at different times.
Thanks PB. I predicted that commercial wouldn’t be bailed out because there’s no “for the children” factor.
Oh, there is a “for the banks” factor though.
And the every ready “credit is the lifeblood of the economy factor”
Also the we must protect GS factor. I believe you can have a chip installed in you head that makes you love GS. If you guys get one, the next couple of years will be a lot easier.
I love GS, oh how I love my goldman sachs. They are my hero, they make me happy.
OK. Now I’ve totally lost it.
“What is good for
General MotorsGoldman Sachs is good for America”“I believe you can have a chip installed in you head that makes you love GS.”
My SIL believes this urban legend that says Obama is secretly plotting to implant chips in Americans’ heads to make them mindlessly spend on their (Megabank, Inc sponsored) credit cards.
She is too whacked out for me to handle these days. My noble wife carries the burden while I stand back and watch in amazed silence.
Wow, a lot of evil intentions have been attributed to Obama, but chips in the head connected to a credit card is a new one on me. Sounds like she already had her’s implanted….set on nutz….
“Pontiac Silverdome sells for $583,000…..”
Moral of the Story?
Build a Steel House. It will always be worth “something”.
Although I can’t help but think that it might make a nice condo-conversion. Having that much room to play under a roof in Michigan during the winter has got to be worth something……if they can keep the HOA fees under control…
Although I can’t help but think that it might make a nice condo-conversion. Having that much room to play under a roof in Michigan during the winter has got to be worth something
That sounds cool. My imagination just took off with that one. If they could turn the stands into condos and somehow get them all outside windows and entries, they could all back onto the playing field which could be turned into a community area - park, tennis, racquetball, pool… It almost seems like something from a sci-fi novel.
I was thinking Moto-X or Monster Trucks……..
Not knowing how it’s laid out, I was thinking a running area around the concourses…….if you are a runner/jogger in Michigan, I imagine that finding a place to run w/o snow or ice would be a problem. Not to mention personal security.
If nothing else, when the total meltdown comes it will be easy to defend, with all that concrete, and the parking lots giving you unobstructed fields of fire for 1/2 mile in every direction. (can you say “Barrett”?…….)
Or turn it into the “Mall of Michigan”……..a more customer friendly version of that monstrosity in Minneapolis/St Paul.
They say it takes $1.5 mil/year to maintain the facility. Is that “government” dollars?
Logan’s Run!
wait a second, I’m 37, does that mean it’s Lastday time for me?
wait a second, I’m 37, does that mean it’s Lastday time for me?
It just means you’re banished to the Pontiac Elderdome.
“Option ARMs: Housing recovery killer?
An explosion of foreclosures will result from option ARMs set to reset to higher payments.
NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) — Option-ARMs: File under, “It sounded good at the time.”
These exotic mortgages allowed homebuyers to come to closing with little cash and choose, monthly, how much to pay: interest and principal, interest only, or a minimum amount less than the interest due.
Of course, the last option is the one 93% of option-ARM buyers selected, according to a new report released this week by Standard & Poors.
But eventually, everyone has to pay the piper.”
Link:
Option ARMs: Housing recovery killer?
Ah, a very good article to cheer the souls of FBs as they entertain friends and families in their grotesque way-overvalued McMansions on Thursday!
If I was Neil, I’d add: “Got popcorn?”
Anything you buy with cash (not credit) is usually not a bad decision. But buying a house with cash (no mortgage payments) does not mean your neighbors did the same thing. If they go into foreclosure, all houses, including your paid-off-house lose value.
Always best to buy for cash when interest rates are very high.
Well stated.
More generally, employing prudent strategies to purchase a house when the gubmint is still using risk incentives like artificially low mortgage rates, Dough-4-Dumps and low-down-payment FHA loans to encourage soon-to-be-delinquent greater fools to buy homes they cannot afford is a fools game highly likely to result in future financial loss.
Gold traders seem to be calling the Fed’s bluff regarding anti-inflation rhetoric. The Fed uses their various MSM spokesmen to announce plans for every possible way forward, in the case at hand from raising rates sooner rather than later to contain inflation, to keeping rates at a precautionarily low level in order to not strangle the nascent recovery. Gold traders are signaling their conviction that when push comes to shove, the recovery’s progress will take precedence over inflation containment.
* The Wall Street Journal
* NOVEMBER 25, 2009, 2:41 P.M. ET
PRECIOUS METALS: Comex Gold Hits Record High As Dollar Slides
By Allen Sykora
Of DOW JONES NEWSWIRES
Gold futures rocketed to another record high Wednesday in response to renewed weakness in the U.S. dollar and inflation concerns.
February gold, which has replaced December as the month with the most open positions, rose $21.20 to $1,188.60 an ounce on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange. March silver followed, adding 30.6 cents to $18.80.
“You’ve got a new [longtime] low in the dollar. So you’ve got a new high in gold,” said Frank Lesh, broker and futures analyst with FuturePath Trading.
The euro nearly hit $1.51 against the U.S. currency for the first time since August 2008. February gold hit a peak of $1,189, a record for a most-active contract.
“The dollar keeps falling like a bowling ball rolling off of a table,” said Leonard Kaplan, president of Prospector Asset Management. Investors often buy gold as a hedge against dollar weakness.
A “Thanksgiving rally” occurred in equities and lent some support to gold, said Rob Kurzatkowski, futures analyst with optionsXpress. The higher-than-forecast consumer-confidence reading Tuesday led to ideas that Black Friday sales might not be as disappointing as the market had been expecting.
Late last year and early this year, traders tended to move into the dollar on a flight-to-quality or defensive play, Kurzatkowski said. But with equities rising again, there is a renewed appetite for riskier assets.
“As a result, the dollar has really fallen off because there is no need for traders to be in the dollar as a defensive play,” he said.
Other analysts added that the prospect of continuing low interest rates are weighing on the dollar and thereby helping gold.
Financial markets anticipate that central banks will be hesitant to take away liquidity for fear of stifling a recovery prematurely, Kurzatkowski said.
“As a result, everything sets up for inflation,” he said. “Economic indicators are picking up.”
…
“Gold traders seem to be calling the Fed’s bluff regarding anti-inflation rhetoric”.
They are and will continue to do so, and it’s not just traders, China and India are speaking volumes to anyone listening. The latest hog wash and hot air coming from the administration regarding their concern for deficit spending, head butts their actions.
An additional 1.8 trillion in 2010 doesn’t help their case of “concern” for the deficit, in any way. Actions always speak louder the words, always have always will. They are just used to getting their way, but BS is being called much more than ever now.
Does anyone have any reasonable predictions for when the dollar crash will bottom out? I would like to know when to unwind my dollar hedge positions (including US stock market investments) before they unwind against me.
Sure - the dollar crash will bottom when this country adopts responsible monetary policy. I would also get out of precious metals when that happens….
So, when our budget deficit is cut to say 3% of GDP, true employment rises, and entitlement spending especially health care becomes sustainable I’ll leave the Peter Schiff / aladinsane camp.
Of course it will be mighty difficult to adopt sound money policy when we have to spend $800 billion yearly just on the national debt so I don’t think I will be liquidating any metal soon.
You seem concerned about the long-term dollar trend. I am planning a short term strategy (to be executed some time over the first few months of 2010) based on likely trend overshoot and correction. There are just too many known strikes against the dollar for it to continue selling off as fast as it is currently (towards the end of a decade-long downtrend) for very much longer.
Actually PB, longer term I am hopeful Americans will adjust to the new reality and get their act together. We will accept the limits of our military power, stop empire and nation building, and be forced to listen to our foreign creditors. If I didn’t have some optimism about an adjustment by Americans, Mad Max is the outcome and investment strategy doesn’t matter.
Short term:
1. Afghanistan will be more expensive
2. Medicare costs will skyrocket as Congress won’t be able to implement rationing - they can’t even stop themselves from ending the SGR caps on doctors.
3. Unemployment will continue to rise and Obama / Dems will need to throw billions if not trillions on another stimulus
4. Next leg down with CRE and residential housing will further incapacitate banks resulting in further distress to banks
5. Eventually the real bubble in treasuries / agency debt will burst and interest costs will increase
Bottom line - there is no chance money printing will decrease in 2010 meaning dollar falls and gold rises.
Nice analysis. I guess my dollar hedges will stay in place for the next little while, as nothing you say strikes me as off base…
We’re hanging onto what metals we have and buying some very cheap stocks - DHT for example…
This from the Independent Institute:
“FHA Encourages More Bad Mortgage Loans
“An astounding 20 percent of the Federal Housing Administration’s $725 billion portfolio of mortgage loans will go into default as the result of the agency’s recent campaign to subsidize first-time homebuyers with little cash and weak credit. That prediction comes from an industry insider who has seen it all happen before: former chief credit officer of Fannie Mae, Edward Pinto, who recently testified before a House committee on the gathering storm of FHA mortgage defaults. It’s déjà vu all over again. But why did federal policymakers allow history to repeat itself?
“To listen to our glorious leaders discuss such matters is to realize that they have no real understanding of what they are dealing with,” writes Independent Institute Senior Fellow Robert Higgs in a new post on The Beacon. “They see the collapse of an artificially stimulated house-construction industry, and they conclude: the government must subsidize more house construction. They see the collapse of real estate prices, and they conclude: the government must stimulate demand for real estate in order to raise its price.”
Had policymakers grasped the causes of the housing boom and subsequent bust, they would have stopped subsidizing unqualified borrowers, stopped trying to raise the prices of houses, and let the economic process work itself out through market processes. Continues Higgs: “Simply piling on more and more of the same distortive policies that generated the crisis in the first place can, at best, only delay the day of reckoning while magnifying the adjustments that ultimately will have to occur.”
Clipped from The Daily Reckoning.
FHA loans + Dough-4-Dumps = “higher than expected” new home buyer delinquencies going forward
FHA loans + Dough-4-Dumps = “higher than expected” new home buyer delinquencies going forward
Masterfully prescient.
Depressingly obvious, as you and I get to funnel our tax dollars* to the FHA, to provide “insurance claims payments” of the full principle balance on the defaulted FHA loans.
*Clarification: I realize we are not literally going to be taxed to pay for this. Rather, the Fed will use its printing press technology to provide the money which the Treasury will appropriate for this purpose, once the FHA needs to be bailed out. To my mind, there is little difference between redistribution schemes based on explicit (IRS) versus implicit (printing press) taxation, other than the fact that the latter is far more politically viable due to the deception involved.
Yep PB you are exactly right .
Buyers & Sellers
Lloyd Blankfein’s Park Avenue Price Cut!
• It’s been six months since Goldman Sachs CEO Lloyd Blankfein and his wife Laura put their old duplex on the market for $15 million. And yet, sadly, there have been no takers. The Blankfeins just cut $1.5 million off the price of the apartment, though, so perhaps their luck is about to turn around? The five-bedroom co-op at 941 Park Avenue—which comes with 30-foot living room with wood-burning fireplace, paneled library, formal dining room, and two maid’s rooms—can now be yours for $13.5 million. [Cityfile, Stribling]
• Harper’s Bazaar publisher Valerie Salembier and her husband, former Revlon president Paul Block, have paid $2.55 million for a 27th-floor, three-bedroom apartment at 860 United National Plaza. [NYO]
• Dr. Hilel Lewis, an ophthalmologist and the former head of the Cleveland Clinic’s Cole Eye Institute, has put his three-bedroom condo at the Time Warner Center on the market for $14.9 million, which is $8.9 million more than he paid for it in 2007. [NYO, Corcoran]
• Art historian Hugh Crean has put his quirky Victorian townhouse at 401 Manhattan Avenue on the market for $1.595 million. [Curbed, Halstead]
Dr.Lewis has a high opinion of his condo, he must be savvy and knows RE only goes way up. Or he replaced the toilet seats.
These numbers will continue to rise as the system tries to flush it self.There is a provision in our Constitution for bankruptcy for this reason. On the opposite of the spectrum we have the Fed&Co.trying to prop up an entire system that desperately needs to correct, instead we will continue to get distortions. Can’t wait for the next “stimulus” package.
Bankruptcies spike 33%
Number of bankruptcy filings in third quarter of 2009 soars to highest level since 2005. Business bankruptcies filed this year top 2008 total.
NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) — The total number of bankruptcies filed in the third quarter surged 33% in 2009 and is at the highest level since 2005, according to data released Wednesday.
The American Bankruptcy Institute, an industry research firm, said 388,485 bankruptcies were filed during the last quarter, compared to 292,291 filed during the same period in 2008, according to data released by the Administrative Office of the U.S. Courts.
Filings for the first nine months of the year climbed 35% to 1,100,035, compared to 841,496 filings during the same period in 2008. A total of 1,117,771 bankruptcies were filed last year.
“The spike in bankruptcy filings for both consumers and businesses reflect the continuing effects of today’s weak economy,” said ABI executive director Samuel Gerdano in a statement. “With unemployment surpassing 10% and credit to businesses remaining tight, consumers and businesses are increasingly turning to the financial relief of bankruptcy.”
This is a promising development. Perhaps the hedge fund industry could focus its resources on breaking up the too-big-to-fail banks. This would be a tremendous boon to America’s economy. We might actually prosper for the duration of the 21st century beyond all expectations if they succeed in this endeavor.
Short of a decisive end to the recent too-big-to-fail bailout management regime, all I foresee is a continued decline of Megabank, Inc-dominated America’s economic competitiveness. What does Megabank, Inc care about this country, anyway? They are multinational firms who can take their business wherever opportunity looks best going forward if our economy collapses under the burden of bailing them out.
I also have to complement a politician who follows my frequent suggestion to apply the Sherman Antitrust Act against Megabank, Inc. Why not resort to historic precedents when they are readily available?
Hedge fund lawyer runs for Congress, anti-big banks
Wed Nov 25, 2009 1:41pm EST
By Joseph A. Giannone
NEW YORK (Reuters) - Hedge funds are far from popular, but one lawyer thinks Pennsylvania voters will support his calls for banning corporate bailouts, putting an end to “too big to fail” and taking the bulls-eye off fund managers.
…
Paige, who resides in Skytop, told Reuters he was frustrated by the massive cost of bailing out badly behaving banks, as well as the vilification of hedge funds.
He says longtime lawmakers like Democrat Paul Kanjorski, who has represented the state’s 11th District since 1984, bear some responsibility for last year’s banking crisis.
“This country really needs help and as the bank bailout showed, Congress lacks financial acumen,” said Paige, a lifelong Democrat who switched parties to run as a Republican. “We need a few people down there who know what they’re doing.”
…
EuroPacific Capital’s Peter Schiff, an outspoken money manager who in 2006 warned about an impending financial meltdown, told Reuters in June he was considering a run for senate against Democratic incumbent Christopher Dodd.
Paige hopes to raise campaign cash from hedge funds, although it remains to be seen if his links to the industry will cost him votes.
Hedge funds, he says, have been unfairly blamed for the financial crisis and lumped in with Bernard Madoff, who never ran a hedge fund. Indeed most hedge funds, he said, are small entrepreneurial businesses that Americans would favor over big global banks such as Goldman Sachs Group Inc (GS.N).
That hands off approach does not extend to the global banks, he said.
The banks are not capitalist institutions. They were created and have been sustained by government subsidies, both explicit and implicit.
“‘Too big to fail’ should be ‘Too big to exist,’” said Paige, who will call for a new rendition of the Sherman Antitrust Act to break up companies and bringing back Glass- Steagall to separate consumer banking from capital market activities.
…
“Unexpectedly” damn that word…
Orders for Durable Goods in U.S. Unexpectedly Fall (Update2)
Nov. 25 (Bloomberg) — Orders for goods meant to last several years unexpectedly fell in October, restrained by a drop in demand for defense equipment and a reminder the economic recovery will be slow to gain speed.
The 0.6 percent decrease in bookings for durable goods followed a revised 2 percent gain in September that was larger than previously estimated, figures from the Commerce Department showed today. Excluding defense bookings, orders rose 0.4 percent.
Concern that consumer spending may retrench as unemployment mounts will probably cause companies to limit spending on new equipment and keep inventories lean. While another Commerce Department report showed consumer spending rose more than forecast last month, the world’s largest economy needs a rebound in manufacturing and housing for the recovery to gain momentum.
“Many firms are still hesitant to make capital investments,” said Guy Lebas, chief fixed-income strategist at Janney Montgomery Scott LLC in Philadelphia. “What we saw in the month of October was a big, big drop in machinery orders after a large increase in September.”
I am encouraged by the news that some Wall Street ‘mavericks’ are planning runs for Congress. Perhaps they can provide meaningful input on the debate over how best to end too-big-to-fail. The free market may have hope to recover from its death bed after all. It would be mighty nice if we could excise the adjective ‘crony’ which seems to necessarily precede the word ‘capitalism’ these days.
Big banks, bailout inspire runs for Congress
Wed Nov 25, 2009 4:08pm EST
By Joseph A. Giannone
NEW YORK (Reuters) - Wall Streeters are far from popular these days, but a hedge fund lawyer and a money manager running for Congress hope voters will support their calls to ban bailouts and put an end to “too big to fail.”
Christopher Paige, 38, recently announced plans to run against Democratic Representative Paul Kanjorski in eastern Pennsylvania. He is an academic and lawyer who worked the past three years as general counsel for Paige Capital Management, a small New York City hedge fund co-founded by his wife, Michelle.
Paige’s move comes a couple of months after Euro Pacific Capital Inc’s Peter Schiff, a money manager who as early as 2006 predicted the housing bubble and financial meltdown, formally announced plans to run against Connecticut’s senior senator, Democrat Chris Dodd.
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(My first post after 4 years of lurking!)
This strikes a cord with The Wise Men by Issacson where Aecheson, Lovett, Harriman and others fostered our post WWII foreign policy. Crucial to their doing so was their belief that a privileged position/upbringing in our society necessitated a term of service to country. This was thought to be a term or so followed by a return to the private sector/life. Hardly reflective of today’s Washington, but w/the Senate Finance Committees passing(?) of the Paul bill to audit the Fed and people like msgs Paige and Schiff running for office the strength of this country in principle will may come to the fore.
This strikes a cord with The Wise Men by Issacson where Aecheson, Lovett, Harriman and others fostered our post WWII foreign policy.
After visiting the Truman Library last month your post resonates with some of the thing I learned and relearned there.
Truman left office with a 32% approval rating and now is considered to be one of our top 10 presidents. Lesson to me: Historical judgments are left to history.
And to stick with housing:
July 15, 1949
Truman signs the Housing Act, establishing a national housing agency and providing federal aid to slum clearance programs and low-cost housing projects.
Most those places are torn down now, yes?
longlurker,
Welcome to posting on the HBB. Hope to see more of your postings.
Dollar hits 15-month low in steepest drop since July on rate view; euro breaks above $1.51 ~ Wednesday November 25, 2009
NEW YORK (AP) — The safe-haven dollar slid to a 15-month low against the euro, was within striking distance of 14-year lows versus the yen and dipped below parity against the Swiss franc Wednesday as markets absorbed the Federal Reserve’s indication that interest rates will remain at super-low levels for a while and it was not overly concerned by the U.S. currency’s decline.
Against a basket of six currencies including the euro, yen and franc, the dollar fell as low as 74.245, its weakest point since August 2008 and its steepest one-day drop since July 31, said Joseph Trevisani, chief market analyst at FXSolutions.
The 16-nation euro climbed as high as $1.5142 Wednesday, its strongest level since August 2008. In late New York trading, it read $1.5139 from $1.4975 late Tuesday.
The break above $1.51 sets the dollar up for possible steep drops this weekend.
Stuart Bennett, senior foreign exchange strategist at Calyon Credit Agricole, said there’s now a chance that the euro’s breakthrough opens the way for a “rapid” move higher, especially if stocks remain well-bid — for much of the past year, the dollar has moved in opposite direction to stocks.
“The market is completely onboard for this,” said Trevisani. The jump above $1.51 ahead of the thin trading of the Thanksgiving weekend set the dollar up for some big potential losses, he said.
The dollar also fell to 87.40 Japanese yen from 88.56 yen, after earlier falling to 87.19 yen, its weakest level since January and close to 14-year lows.
Meanwhile, the dollar fell to 99.66 Swiss francs from 1.0082 francs, dropping below parity for only the second time ever.
Is poor Uncle Buck on death watch?
The Financial Times
From Markets 4:38am
Dollar hits 14-year low on yen
Japan finance minister says watching market closely
Dollar hits 14-year low on yen
TOKYO, Nov 26 - The dollar tumbled to its lowest in 14 years against the yen on Thursday and hit a one-year low on the Swiss franc, tripping sell orders as investors sold on the view its broadbased weakness has further to go.
Japan’s Finance Minister Hirohisa Fujii said Japan must take appropriate steps if moves were ”abnormal” and was watching FX market moves very closely.
But traders have been doubting Japanese authorities would step in at this stage to break the fall because its weakness is against a range of currencies. It also hit a 15-month low on the dollar index, which measures its performance against six currencies.
”It’s dollar weakening, not yen strengthening, so there’s very little Japanese authorities can do to stop the trend,” said Koichi Haji, chief economist at NLI Research Institute in Tokyo.
”Even if they intervened in the market, the effect will be short-lived. Intervention will be extremely hard to justify in the first place, because Japan is not the only country suffering from weak economic growth.”
The greenback fell as far as Y86.52, its weakest level since 1995. Dealers were not ruling out a drop towards Y86 or even 85.50 in the near term, as the dollar was under pressure across the board, giving it some momentum.
The dollar initially broke through key levels on Wednesday, hitting a 15-month low against the euro and against the basket of currencies, after an indication from the Federal Reserve that its fall has been orderly and interest rates will stay low for some time.
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EDITOR’S CHOICE
Sell-off sends dollar below key level - Nov-25
A twist to iron ore pricing - Nov-25
Sri Lanka buys gold from IMF - Nov-25
View of the Day: Asian asset bubble fears overblown - Nov-25
Moscow highlights ‘overheated’ equities - Nov-25
Russian talk weighs on greenback - Nov-25
I think the dollar trend may have just reached an inflection point, or at least hit a speed bump.
Word to the wise: Think twice before putting too much trust in a real estate developer who calls themselves Limitless.
* FOREIGN EXCHANGE
* NOVEMBER 26, 2009, 6:01 A.M. ET
Dollar Rebounds on Dubai Debt Worries, Intervention Talk
By NICHOLAS HASTINGS
LONDON — Fear of a debt default by Dubai World, along with talk of intervention by the Bank of Japan and suspected intervention by the Swiss National Bank, helped lift the dollar in European trading Thursday.
The U.S. currency’s rise reversed a recent sharp slide, which took the dollar down to a 14-year low against the yen during Asian trading as investors continued to worry about how long U.S. interest rates will stay at low levels.
The dollar has also been driven lower by reports that Russia is planning to diversify some of its foreign-exchange reserves into the Canadian dollar.
However, there was a sharp shift in global sentiment as markets absorbed the news that Dubai World, a holding company for the Dubai government, requested a delay in repayment on about $35 billion of its debt.
Fear that the move could constitute an actual default led to a swift move out of risky asset markets, with the Nikkei Index closing 0.6% lower, the Shanghai Composite Index falling 3.6% and most European bourses losing around 2%.
The dollar was also helped against the yen by verbal intervention from Japan’s ministry of finance. Although Vice Minister Yoshihiko Noda initially claimed that intervention wasn’t under consideration, Finance Minister Hirohisa Fujii said that appropriate action would be taken against “abnormal” moves in the currency. Mr. Fujii also pointed out that the yen’s rise was due to dollar weakness and not to yen strength.
Analysts said this implied that action by the U.S. is needed to turn the dollar around. “There’s little sense that the government is about to act with intervention,” said Steve Barrow, currency strategist with Standard Bank in London.
The Swiss National Bank, meanwhile, appeared to have run out of patience with the Swiss franc’s rise against the dollar and is suspected of wading into the market early in the European day with intervention to drive it back down against the U.S. currency. The central bank didn’t confirm the move, but UBS issued a note stating that the SNB surprised the market with its move.
…
Don’t know it works over there, but it can take several days for a bank to arrange for a withdrawal that large over here.
Man robbed of $2 million bank withdrawal.
TAIPEI (Reuters) - A man in Taiwan was robbed of more than $2 million in cash that he had just withdrawn from the bank, a police official said on Tuesday.
Three masked gunmen robbed the 50-year-old victim on Monday afternoon in the southern city of Tainan, logging the highest-value robbery in city history with a heist of T$77 million (2.39 million), said a police investigation official surnamed Chang.
The gunmen approached the victim, surnamed Tsai, as he drove from the bank to his watch shop nearby, Taiwan’s Central News Agency said. One shot a shop employee in the foot during a scuffle to fight off the gunmen, the agency said.
Police are looking for the three men while advising people in the 769,000-population city to be more vigilant.
“We’re putting out a notice on public safety, telling citizens that we’re ready stand beside them for protection as they use the bank,” Chang said.
“Don’t know how it works over there, but it can take several days for a bank to arrange for a withdrawal over here.”
That gives crooks several days to plan their evil deed.
Isn’t Dubai an Islamic nation? I thought borrowing money was against their religion? Thus I am deeply puzzled by this suggestion that they are having debt problems.
The Financial Times
Dubai shock after debt standstill call
By Simeon Kerr in Dubai and Jennifer Hughes in London
Published: November 25 2009 20:48 | Last updated: November 25 2009 22:29
Dubai skyline
Into the storm: Dubai rode the wave of easy credit during the boom years and investors had been reassured by soothing messages from officials on the emirate’s debt position
Dubai shocked investors on Monday by asking for a debt standstill at Dubai World, the government’s flagship holding company that has developed some of the world’s most extravagant real estate projects.
The move raised the spectre of default in the Middle East’s trading hub just as early signs of economic recovery have emerged. During the boom, Dubai rode the wave of easy credit generating phenomenal economic growth but was badly hit by the global credit crisis.
Dubai’s surprise move angered some investors who had been reassured by local officials for months that the city would meet all obligations on its $80bn (£48bn) of gross debt in spite of recession and a real estate crash.
“Investors view this as shockingly bad news,” said Rob Whichello of BNP Paribas. Two hours after announcing it had raised $5bn from two Abu Dhabi banks, the department of finance asked for a standstill until May 30 on all financing to the heavily indebted Dubai World and its troubled property unit Nakheel, which is due to pay back $4bn on an Islamic bond on December 14.
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EDITOR’S CHOICE
Markets reel over Nakheel default fears - Nov-25
Pressure mounts over $4bn sukuk - Nov-25
Lex: Dubai - Nov-25
FT Alphaville: ‘The sun never sets on Dubai World’ - Nov-25
Dubai World asks for debt ‘standstill’ - Nov-25
Moody’s statement on Dubai downgrades - Nov-25
1) Debt — Cat — Bounce for Dubai
2) Come to think of it, Jesus didn’t much care for money lenders, either. What is it that the major religions have against bankers?
Is the Lehman Bros lesson forgotten already?
* The Wall Street Journal
* HEARD ON THE STREET
* NOVEMBER 25, 2009, 4:08 P.M. ET
Dubai’s Line in the Sand
By ANDREW CRITCHLOW
The last year has firmly embedded moral hazard throughout the financial system. But is Dubai about to give international banks a lesson in what happens when a government doesn’t bail out its big companies as hoped?
…
Thank you, Jeebus, for this Schadenfreudist’s dream gift just in the nick of time for Thanksgiving.
The BBC commentator on tonight’s evening news is referring to Dubai as “the economy built on the sand.” He is talking about property prices “rising by the day. Everyone knew the bubble would have to burst.”
The financial crisis certainly is evolving. Good-bye swine flu, hello cancer. I don’t begin to understand how the porcine beauticians keep their balls in the air anymore…
Schweet!
Raining on Dubai’s Day at the Beach
Before Surprise Announcement, Emirate Fueled Slow Recovery by Tapping Petrodollars; Property Market Remains Shaky
By CHIP CUMMINS
DUBAI — This city-state’s surprise move Wednesday to restructure its corporate jewel — and announce a standstill of Dubai World’s debt payments — stunned bankers and executives here, who appeared to be just shaking off the worst of a particularly nasty strain of the global financial crisis.
Dubai’s government on Wednesday said it would parachute Deloitte LLP into help the company’s management restructure the conglomerate, which spans global port operations and luxury real-estate developments at home and abroad. As part of the sweeping overhaul, it is asking to delay payments to debt holders for six months or more.
Dubai World’s real-estate subsidiary, Nakheel, built the emirate’s iconic palm-tree-shaped island, packed with luxury villas and hotels.
The announcement ended what had been an unusually upbeat last few months for the city-state. Despite the lingering debt woes at Dubai Inc., many fundamental economic indicators are signaling a slow recovery.
The biggest plus: Oil prices are back on the rise, after plummeting late last year. Even though Dubai doesn’t pump much oil itself, petrodollars grease the entire region. Marios Maratheftis, Standard Chartered’s Dubai-based regional head of research, is predicting 4% growth for Dubai in 2010, compared to a 1% contraction this year.
The higher oil price “affects sentiment, it affects confidence,” he says. “It affects wealth in the U.A.E. and the region.”
This city-state was long the epicenter of a dizzying boom in the Persian Gulf. An oil-fired investment and spending binge culminated in the summer of 2008 when crude hit more than $140 a barrel. But by the time of Dubai’s biggest bash later that year — a $20-million hotel opening on the emirate’s man-made, palm-shaped island — the global financial crisis was washing ashore. Dubai property prices had already started their precipitous descent.
In the rout that followed, government-controlled and private developers postponed or cancelled projects, shed workers and stopped paying bills.
Without much oil revenue, Dubai is reliant on debt markets not only to pay for its ambitious infrastructure projects, but also to service previous borrowing that funded explosive growth in recent years. It and its corporate entities have nearly $50 billion in debt coming due over the next three years, according to Standard & Poor’s.
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Does advance knowledge in the ranks of Megabank, Inc that this Dubai story was about to break explain recently negative s-t interest rates? The BBC threw out the suggestion of a $100 bn loan default in tonight’s news. I am guessing there are some shocked sheikhs right about now…
The Financial Times
Clouds of doubt overshadow investment vehicle
By James Drummond and Andrew England
Published: November 26 2009 02:00 | Last updated: November 26 2009 02:00
Dubai World, motto “The sun never sets on Dubai World”, is one of the emirate’s three strategic investment vehicles, write James Drummond and Andrew England .
The others are Dubai Holding, the personal vehicle of Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid al Maktoum, the ruler, and Investment Corporation of Dubai.
Dubai World’s most high- profile subsidiary is DP World, the world’s fourth- largest ports operator.
This month, Moody’s downgraded DP World from A1 to A3, which is still investment grade. The ratings agency said that as a result of the company’s exposure to emerging markets in Africa, the Middle East and Asia, DP World had “remained fairly resilient” during the economic downturn.
More problematic are Nakheel and Limitless, the large-scale developers. Nakheel has suffered from a plunge in property values in Dubai. It was responsible for reclaiming the famous palm islands from the waters of the Gulf while Limitless was due to develop a 75km canal in the emirate.
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“More problematic are Nakheel and Limitless, the large-scale developers.”
Limitless the large-scale developer; am I the only one who finds that name singularly hilarious?
Happy Thanksgiving, HBB’ers!!!
We have much to be grateful about!!!
But, here’s a little piece of what we should be ungrateful about:
Hourly Action In Gold From Trader Dan
Post Edited: November 25, 2009 at 5:48 pm
Dear Friends,
The surge by the Euro above major resistance centered near the 1.50 level with a corresponding break of downside support in the US Dollar and a move to a new yearly low, catapulted gold up to within easy striking distance of $1,200.00. If you recall our inflation adjusted gold price chart, a breach of that level on strong volume could take gold into an upside acceleration with a longer term target of $1,750 quite conceivable based solely on the chart pattern alone. It appears as if the $1200 level could fall early next week.
I find it more than disconcerting to see the complacency in the broad US equity markets regarding the near free fall in the Dollar. A falling dollar may generate some paper profits for US businesses, especially those in the export end of things, but it spells disaster for the US consumer, especially both the poor and the middle class, who have yet to understand what is going to happen to their purchasing power as the cost of the basic necessities of life begin an inexorable climb higher. Remember how they quietly switched that 5 pound bag of sugar to a 4 pound bag and left the price the same? Well, get ready for another repeat of that – expect to see smaller bags and boxes of cereal, etc, but with the same sticker price as the former larger quantity size. Suzie Homemaker will be confused as she comes home from the grocery store with another $200 worth of goods but with far more room left in her cupboard after she unloads the bags.
Jim has said it many times – these derivative kings have destroyed us all. While we welcome the rise in gold, we despise the reasons for its rise because it could have been avoided. Now it is too late. The Dollar is finished as the global reserve currency and with its demise, so too goes the position of US preeminence in global economic affairs. As that fades, eventually military power will fade as well. Just like Rome declined, so too America is on the path of long term decline and believe me, it pains me deeply to have to write this. Instead of letting the pond scum bankers and financial wizards who sold the public and the global investment community a bill of worthless goods (read Structured Investment Vehicles and Collateralized Debt Obligations) reap the consequences of their unbridled greed, the powers that be decided to instead debauch the currency, our birthright, and begin a process of nearly unlimited creation of worthless scraps of papers which somehow are laughably regarded as “money”. Gold’s rise is now mocking that “policy” and exposing it for the generational theft that it is.
People have been talking about the likeness of the demise of America to the demise of Rome since I was a child. I suppose like most other stopped clock predictions, this one will also eventually come to pass…
Gold has reached a permanently high plateau.
Gold always goes up.
They’re not making any more gold.
Buy gold now or be priced out forever.
(Did I miss any?)
Gold is the only real money, as paper currency is worthless.
OT but then again it IS the Bits/bucket.
http://www.tomsguide.com/us/ATM-Hackers-Credit-Card-numbers,news-5203.html
Apparently there are ATM’s on sale on ebay and Craig slist. Along with skimming devices. Also, atm’s keep swiped #s for 4 months.
According to this article, so beware.
My friend’s card was charged in hotel atm machine. Luckily, bank was notified in within week.
Just saw on the local news that some of the offending drywall in Florida is American Made.
In case you guys missed this one:
“Judge blasts bad bank, erases 525G debt”
http://www.nypost.com/p/news/local/judge_kos_mortgage_to_slap_bank_28ZS1oW8Y58z6gu1AQbWMI
Basically a judge is rewarding someone who took out a 10.375% HELOC on their house in 2004 and then stopped paying on it.
When did our society start rewarding bad behavior and penalizing good behavior? The Mastercard that I have had for 12 years will soon have 18.99% interest on it and I have never been anything but resposible with the thing. So much for the 7.9% fixed APR they promised me when I was first issued that card.
OMFG, I cannot believe that. Dollsamerica dot com is the website.
Turkey day quiz. Who said the following:
March 28, 2007: “The impact on the broader economy and financial markets of the problems in the subprime markets seems likely to be contained.”
May 17, 2007: “We do not expect significant spillovers from the subprime market to the rest of the economy or to the financial system.”
Feb. 28, 2008, on the potential for bank failures: “Among the largest banks, the capital ratios remain good and I don’t expect any serious problems of that sort among the large, internationally active banks that make up a very substantial part of our banking system.”
June 9, 2008: “The risk that the economy has entered a substantial downturn appears to have diminished over the past month or so.”
July 16, 2008: Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are “adequately capitalized” and “in no danger of failing.”
Ed Yardeni at Yardeni Research said the zero-rate policy is no longer working.
“I don’t want to sound ungrateful, but I would like to send another message to the Fed about its current policy: ‘Thanks for nothing,’” Yardeni said in a note to clients.
“The Fed’s zero interest-rate policy may be inadvertently depressing rather than stimulating the economy.”
Yardeni said banks are pulling back on lending “because it makes more sense for them to buy Treasury and agency securities so long as they are certain that the Fed won’t raise interest rates.”
The low rates enable the US government to issue more debt at a relatively low cost, but Yardeni said this may be crowding out private borrowing.
He said that in Japan, the near-zero rate between 1999 and 2006 “enabled the government to issue lots of bonds at extremely low yields. However, this didn’t do much to revive self-sustaining economic growth in Japan. The United States seems to be heading down the same path.”
Because of the low rates and weak dollar, Yardeni said that “asset bubbles are already making a comeback in stocks and commodities around the world. The biggest bubble may be in government securities.”
He said the central bank “should start raising rates and resist providing any guidance on the likely pace of tightening. Providing strong guidance as to the likely direction of monetary policy simply encourages speculators to take more risk.”
Naroff said the economy could withstand a modest hike in rates as long as banks and borrowers have enough confidence to expand credit.
But he said the Fed needs to prepare the public and financial markets with more confident statements about the economy.
I love the last line.
““I don’t want to sound ungrateful, but I would like to send another message to the Fed about its current policy: ‘Thanks for nothing,’
…
But he said the Fed needs to prepare the public and financial markets with more confident statements about the economy.”
Hot air hasn’t done much for the economy so far, either. Remember ’subprime is contained’? And ‘green shoots’? Perhaps the Fed needs a new moniker for the nascent recovery…
Dubai was not the only spot in international currency markets with interesting developments this week.
For comparison, the exchange rate was about 16,667 dong to the dollar as of summer 2008.
The Wall Street Journal
Vietnam Swerves Off Course, Devaluing the Dong
more in Heard on the Street »
BY ANDREW PEAPLE
Vietnam is often called the new China. In fact, it is quite the opposite.
China is facing pressure to let its currency rise, while it adds to its already vast foreign-currency reserves. Vietnam, by contrast, has been under intense pressure to devalue its currency against the dollar and burning through its official stock of greenbacks to avoid doing so.
On Wednesday, the State Bank of Vietnam folded, setting the dollar-dong exchange rate at 17,961 dong per dollar, a 5.4% devaluation and the second such move this year. It also raised its benchmark interest rate by a percentage point to 8%.
These moves weren’t too much of a surprise—and now more devaluation could be in the cards.
The country’s trade deficit has been growing at a rate of $2.2 billion a month this year, while foreign direct investment has slumped to nearly a quarter of its level at the same stage in 2008. Defending the dong was a drain on foreign-exchange reserves. They are down to $16.5 billion from $22 billion at the start of 2009, analysts estimate.
Still, a devaluation isn’t without potentially worrying side effects. It will add to just-resurfacing inflationary pressures—the consumer-price index rose 4.4% in November—and make things tough for the manufacturing sector, which relies heavily on imports of intermediate goods.
Such varying pressures have Vietnam’s policy makers in a spin. The central bank recently said it had no plans to devalue the dong. At the end of October, it said interest rates would be on hold until year’s end.
The lack of credibility created by Wednesday’s move could add to downward pressure on the currency, says Standard Chartered, with any improvement in investment flows unlikely to counteract trade deficits that could widen further. The bank expects a dollar to be worth 18,500 dong by the end of this year and 19,000 dong by the end of 2010.
…
This story is awesome. It sounds like the global warming alarmists’ lock on scientific debate over the subject may be eroding.
Lest you miss the close connection to the housing bubble, notice how those with the one true climate change religion stuck their proverbial fingers in their ears to shut out anything those outside their club had to say on the topic. Kind of reminds you of the way people who thought “real estate always goes up” acted, just before the crash and even afterwards in some cases.
“Climategate”: Peer-Review System Was Hijacked By Warming Alarmists
Dissenting viewpoints on warming were shut out regardless of their scientific merit
Steve Watson
Infowars.net
Monday, Nov 23, 2009
One of the most striking revelations to immediately emerge from the “climategate” scandal has been references to efforts by scientists espousing the human-caused warming theory to exclude contrary viewpoints from important scientific publications.
Among the thousands of emails and documents hacked or leaked from the Climate Research Unit at East Anglia University last week are several references to an agenda to shut down scientific debate on global warming by stifling counter-evidence from other scientists.
Dating back to 1996, the emails show that both U.S. and U.K. based scientists referred to any research offering alternate viewpoints as “disinformation”,“misinformation” or “crap” that needs to be kept out of the public domain.
The emails include deliberations amongst the scientists regarding efforts to make sure that reports from the UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change include their own research and exclude that of dissenting scientists.
In one of the emails, Phil Jones, the director of the East Anglia climate center, suggested to climate scientist Michael Mann of Penn State University We “will keep them out somehow — even if we have to redefine what the peer-review literature is!”
This is a startling quote, given that Jones and Mann as climate scientists have the authority to review papers and determine whether they are eligible to be published by scientific journals.
Mann even discussed how to destroy a journal that had published papers with contrary views, telling his colleagues that he believed it had been “hijacked by a few skeptics on the editorial board” who had “staged a coup”.
“Perhaps we should encourage our colleagues in the climate research community to no longer submit to, or cite papers in, this journal.” Mann wrote.
In another of the emails, Tom Wigley, climate scientist at the University Corporation for Atmospheric Research (UCAR), says that the journal in question, Climate Research, “encourages the publication of crap science ‘in order to stimulate debate’”.
Wigley noted that the publisher of the journal should be told that it is being “perceived” as a vehicle of “misinformation”, adding that the word “perceived” should be emphasized because “whether it is true or not is not what the publishers care about– it is how the journal is seen by the community that counts.”
Wigley also wrote that a group of 50+ scientists could be gotten together to put their names to a letter to add weight to the claim and hopefully help to remove the editorial board of the journal.
Other emails show that some of the scientists declined to make their data available to independent scientists whose views they disagreed with, clear evidence that they were simply unwilling to engage in scientific debate – a core ethic of the scientific community.
Climategate: Peer Review System Was Hijacked By Warming Alarmists FOTR 340×1692
Renowned climate scientist Dr Tim Ball sums up the stunning gravitas of the leaks with regards to the process of peer-reviewing and the publication of papers on climate change in journals.
“What you’ve got here is confirmation of the small group of scientists who, by the way, Professor Wegman who was asked to arbitrate in the debate about the hockey stick, he identified 42 people who were publishing together and also peer-reviewing each other’s literature.” Dr Ball explains.
“So there’s a classic example of the kind of thing that bothered me. About twenty years ago, I started saying ‘Well why are they pushing the peer review?’… And now of course we realise it’s because they had control of their own process. That’s clearly exposed in these emails.”
“On a global scale it’s frightening because this group of people not only control the Hadley Centre, which controls the data on global temperature through the Hadley Climate Research Unit but they also control the IPCC and they’ve manipulated that. And of course the IPCC has become the basis in all governments for the Kyoto protocol, the Copenhagen accord and so on….”
We have long covered the fact that the so called “scientific consensus” on global warming is wholly manufactured and that there are thousands of scientists who have differing viewpoints to the human-induced warming theorists.
Indeed, over two years ago we reported the fact that a survey of over 500 peer reviewed scientific research papers on climate change, written between 2004 and 2007, concluded that less than half endorsed the “consensus view,” that human activity is contributing to considerable global climate change.
We now have clear evidence that a concerted effort has been made by the IPCC connected climate scientists to block dissenting opinion on climate change, regardless of it’s scientific merit.
“This is horrible,” said Pat Michaels, a climate scientist at the Cato Institute in Washington who is directly threatened with physical violence in the emails. “This is what everyone feared. Over the years, it has become increasingly difficult for anyone who does not view global warming as an end-of-the-world issue to publish papers. This isn’t questionable practice, this is unethical.”
John Christy, a scientist at the University of Alabama at Huntsville attacked in the emails for asking that an IPCC report include dissenting viewpoints, said, “It’s disconcerting to realize that legislative actions this nation is preparing to take, and which will cost trillions of dollars, are based upon a view of climate that has not been completely scientifically tested.”
…
What is it about science, Czars and religious consensuses which don’t quite ring in tune?
Political Insight and Analysis From The Wall Street Journal’s Capital Bureau
* November 25, 2009, 12:53 PM ET
Browner Shrugs Off Hot Debate on Climate Change Emails
By Jonathan Weisman
White House energy and environment czar Carol Browner tried Wednesday to shrug off the swirling controversy over purloined British emails suggesting collusion on the part of climate scientists trying to stoke up fears of global warming. She hadn’t read them, she said, and besides, only a few have come to light - second hand.
But with President Barack Obama now committing to attend the international climate change summit in Copenhagen next month, Browner couldn’t escape the debate that easily. The emails from climate scientists at the University of East Anglia are being used by climate change skeptics to castigate the very purpose of the United Nations summit.
“There has been for a very long time a very small group of people who continue to say this isn’t a real problem, that we don’t need to do anything,” Browner said at the White House. “On the other hand, we have 2,500 of the word’s foremost scientists who are in absolute agreement that this is a real problem and that we need to do something and we need to do something as soon as possible. What am I going to do, side with the couple of naysayers out there or the 2,500 scientists? I’m sticking with the 2,500 scientists.”
…