The Housing Bubble

I was so hoping the ’skins would beat the Iggles on Sunday.

IMO Andy Reid is the Beeyotch.

Sorry, the biggest beyo of them all is Dan Snyder.

+ infinity

Sorry, the biggest beyo of them all is Dan Snyder.

Unfortunately true. The team I grew up with is bad, overpaid, and worst of all, boring.

Snyder is a disaster.

Sorry, the biggest beyo of them all is Dan Snyder.

I have a friend who is an apostate Raiders fan - he says he won’t go back until Al Davis sells or dies.

Davis is the worst one

One thing I’ve discovered by being forced to watch three decades of crappy professional football, is that at some point in time you give up, and find something better to do with your weekends.

Go Chiefs!!

Don’t get short with me. Although I do tend to alternate between being amp-ed up and wanting to re-volt.

You would couterfeit by self generating, you would produce wealth.

Daytime vs. nightime doesn’t matter because the unit is standardized. The value in goods of the unit is set by market forces. The unit is what it is.

No combo, you woudn’t, because you’d have to buy Btu’s in order to produce kWh — with less than 100% efficiency at that.

Maybe if you made your own solar panel out of scrap, or built your own microhydro dam…

Or built windmills, tapped into geothermo, got hold of a scrapped nucular powered submarine…

Whatever new kWh production came on line would dilute, thus debase, the existing amount of kWhs.

“The value in goods of the unit is set by market forces.”

Sounds like you are talking about the dollar.

The value of the dollar is set by market forces, is it not? Isn’t the dollar’s value determined by the amount of goods and services it can be traded for?

Yes except the dollar has no intrinsic value. A kWh is a kWh is a kWh. It doesn’t vary.

More production isn’t dilutive, it is wealth productive. Look at a nightime satelite image of the entire globe, http://geology.com/articles/satellite-photo-earth-at-night.shtml

Is it accidental that the wealthier countries have more power? Energy=productive capacity=creation of wealth

My “you would” counterfeit above was supposed to be, “you wouldn’t”. Must, will, fingers, to, obey.

Just a note here… got to love the nuclear submarine. Runs for 30+ years with out the need to refuel. Those babies can stay underwater for 6+ months. I think they resurface for sanity breaks only.

Is it accidental that the wealthier countries have more power? Energy=productive capacity=creation of wealth

I’m with you dude. I was struggling to say the same thing and finally gave up.

“A kWh is a kWh is a kWh. It doesn’t vary.”

Thought experiment:

Suppose a new energy technology (cold fusion?) was developed that allowed virtually unlimited energy production at low cost. Would the value of kWh relative to other goods and services go up, go down, or ‘not vary’?

Would the value of kWh relative to other goods and services go up, go down, or ‘not vary’?

The “value” of a kw would stay the same - that’s the beauty.

The value of the dollar, however, would go down because kw were now more abundant so, instead of being worth a kw, maybe a dollar would be worth 1Mw.

What’s important to note though, is that because energy was suddenly so cheap, the price to produce, process and ship goods and services would go down as well.

The limiting factors would be raw materials, earth, water, time etc.

This way, money cannot be artificially inflated beyond the value of what it can buy. If it takes a kw to grow, process and ship an ear of corn, it still takes a kw (barring industrial process improvements) no matter how cheap those kw become.

It would go down, and make society wealthier through increased productivity.

“It would go down,…”

“A kWh is a kWh is a kWh. It doesn’t vary.”

Do you see the inherent contradiction in arguing ‘my preferred currency unit does not vary the way that yours does’? All currency units are relative, and the choice of numeraire merely serves to change the frame of reference.

Do you not see the value in a money supply that can only be expanded by increased capacity to produce goods and services?

“make society wealthier through increased productivity.”

LOL. Yeah, like Palm Pilots. Just go ahead and use Chia Pets as currency.

So the industrial revolution wasn’t made possible by mechanization of water power? There isn’t a corresponding parabolic rise in global GDP with the advent of the IC engine? Was there not a corresponding price spike when US domestic production reached peak in the early 70s?

I expect more than just flippant comments from a scholar like you Mug.

I’m truly shocked by the alternating currents of positive and negative energy flowing from these dynamos of input here on the HBB today!

The inductive reasoning here leads to resonance with frequency.

“The inductive reasoning here leads to resonance with frequency.”

This is a grounded bunch.

“So Many Dynamos” are a palindromic idea.

My point exactly, and what better way to mitigate than to tie energy production directly to the currency? Wasters get punished, producers get rewarded.

I think coal, cng, wind, nuclear, solar will do just fine. Plenty of oil in the shale too.

There might be lifestyle changes and more rail lines and charging stations exc.

I’d also note we don’t have enough information to claim we hit peak oil.

It seems to me the United States is blessed with another millenium worth of fuel. CNG alone is two hundred years of fuel. Oil shale will give you another couple hundred. Yeah, its difficult and people might have to pay 10$ a gallon. So? Whaty is the alternative?

There is plenty of uranium too.

Might be that supercapacitor technology and EVs will make this all moot in a couple years.

We still have plenty of potential with wind power.

powerful hamsters

*very* powerful

I’d also note we don’t have enough information to claim we hit peak oil.

NPR reported this morning that Brazil is claiming to have found an “elephant field” of oil.

Brazil Pins Hopes On Massive, Untapped Oil Fields

James you need to do a little research on EROEI.

Dude, thanks. I really don’t feel like we have a good handle on oil production. At the peak of pricing, they were closing down rigs and some were yelling “shortage”.

Meanwhile consumption was going down.

I consider you a knowledgeable guy. You must agree (I would think) that the second half drawn from every oil deposit is going to be harder to get at than the first, no?

Halliburton has undertaken the project to “squeeze” Gawar, the largest deposit known to exist on earth. I don’t know if the current decline in production trend will continue, but when I look at the chart it really does look like many of the models I’ve seen over the last 10 years. Hopefully we can replace that energy source with something equally convenient, but you know what they say about hope in one hand and feces in the other…

It was written by Joe Haldeman. He was drafted into the Vietnam War and wounded in combat. The Vietnam War lasted from 1959 until 1975. We are only entering into the 8th year of the War in Afghanistan. Only 9 more to go!!

Can’t store it, can’t eat it, can’t put it in a safe deposit box…

it doesn’t sound much like money, does it?

It would not be money - it would be what money is worth

Instead of a dollar being worth 1/1000 of an ounce of gold, it could be worth 1kw of energy.

Because you can’t do anything with gold except trade it for something useful, like food, shelter, weapons and - wait for it - energy!!!

So, instead of trading your dollars for gold, which you would still have to trade for something useful, you could trade your dollars for energy.

An ounce is an ounce and a kw is a kw, but you can’t do anything with an ounce except tip a scale. But with a kw, you can move something, make something, harvest something.

Why do I feel like I’m getting this? I’m really pretty dim about the whole economics thing in general.

“Why do I feel like I’m getting this?”

Good question? I have seen no evidence presented by you or Dude or anyone else that it would make sense to call kWh’s ‘money’ — just the assertion without justification.

I have seen no evidence presented by you or Dude or anyone else that it would make sense to call kWh’s ‘money’

I think there is ample evidence that:

1)fiat currencies are subject to tampering

2)currencies based on gold have their own problems - hoarding, scarcity, bubbles

3)That energy is more “real” than the perceived value of gold in that gold is only as valuable as what and how much someone is willing to trade “real” things for it.

I’ll admit that this is just a thought experiment, but I have yet to see anyone explain why it wouldn’t make sense.

No point in getting into it even, PB. Just the fact that kWh are not even remotely measurable by the average person is a show-stopper.

Personally - I know exactly what the ultimate money system is, but I ain’t tellin’. Main reason is it requires centralized control of all money, which is a bad thing.

I have yet to see anyone explain why it wouldn’t make sense.

Simply put - logistics. You just can’t get around the huge logistics problems.

- How does an average Joe accurately measure their holdings? It’s not easy for even scientists to measure “energy”, let alone someone with little to no lab equipment.

- How does one account for energy that’s stored in their possessions? I have energy in my house, my trees, my grass, my food, my body etc. If I want to sell some of it - how the F would I go about doing that? If I’m hard up I can’t exactly rip a 2×4 out of my house to pay the grocer. Maybe I could punch the checkout clerk in the face? There’s your payment - 1,000 joules worth. Sorry it kind of hurt.

- Just think about how such a system would be inherently imbalanced. Instantly any entity (e.g. energy companies) that have access to nuclear power now own 99.9999% of the world’s wealth.

etc. etc. The problems with such a system would be endless.

It’s an interesting thought experiment - nothing more.

A viable money system has to have these characteristics:
1. Easily measurable
2. Easily storable
3. Easily exchangeable
4. Of limited supply
5. Not easily creatable
6. Not easily counterfeited

Fiat money systems meet 1-3 and 6, with 4-5 questionable.

PM money systems meet 2-6, with 1 questionable. Combination PM-backed paper and real PM meet all 6 very thoroughly.

An energy-based system would perhaps meet #5, if you don’t count nuclear as “creating” energy. It doesn’t come close to meeting any of the other ones.

Glad to hear it was resolved, but that’s not how things are supposed to work. You shouldn’t ‘have’ to hire an atty. to get a simple question answered.

Obviously you haven’t figured out what bureaucracy is all about…

Northeastener,

Oh but I have ( Nat’l Guard member ) remember? I’ve had to call the IRS and put on hold for lengthy periods, even off season. But ultimately I was able to get through and get the issue resolved.

If your time is more valuable, then yes, an atty. may make sense.

I’m on hold with the IRS right now, trying to get them to credit a tax payment! They cashed the check, and I have a copy of it right here. This is my second time calling them. I just want to get the correct address to send the documentation to.

Just for grins, I complained to my Rep. about my treatment. Unfortunately, because I’m not a deadbeat trying to get out of a contract, they don’t care about me. I’m just a sucker trying to pay his taxes.

BTW: According to their literature I have no right to sue over their error. I only have the right to a “hearing” with them deciding. There’s also a limit on reimbursements of charges and fees. I have to fill out several forms, etc. (In my consulting business we call this “breakage.” Design procedures that make the consumer jump through so many hoops to get a refund that he gives up.)

Years ago our accountant suggested that we
send our returns by certified mail so we did.

Four years ago we received notice that our
states taxes had not been paid and they wanted their money forthwith. It was with
infinite pleasure that we produced our
certified mail receipt and nicely told them that the had lost it…in more ways than one.

There’s plenty of dollars, the question is which banks don’t have enough.

The problem with the dollar is not one of quantity, but one of distribution.

combo, are you advocating that we spread the wealth!?!

Socialist.

“combo, are you advocating that we spread the wealth!?!”

As a matter of fact, I am.

I advocate that people be given the opportunity to freely exchange their goods and services for dollars. Those who receive the dollars should then be allowed to trade them for goods and services of their choosing.

The value of these dollars should depend on the value of the goods and services traded as determined by the traders of these same goods and services.

That means the dollar will go up and down in value with respect to goods and services. It also means the value of goods and services will go up and down with respect to the dollar.

Those who have highly prized goods and services will receive many dollars. Those whose goods and services are not as highly prized will receive less dollars.

And what about the people who can produce “dollars” at essentially no cost to them, via the printing press? Where do they fit into your plan?

So what’s your reasoning behind the assertion that maples are better than eagles ?

They’re cuter!

Gold spot is $ 1092.50….amazing. I guess Dubai’s problems are sending it up some more.

Why over the eagle?

Isnt the silver price set?

Gold spot is $ 1092.50

I will only buy one coin a year from now on. If the price keeps rising, I will earn it in my fund.

Yes, Step, spot for silver is $ 19.17. Both silver & gold are benchmarked ( London fix ) by a group of gnomes in London each and every beautiful day, except maybe the Sabbeth - I don’t know - but it can vary considerably during the day as the bidding and selling go on…

He listens to me now. And wishes he hadn’t bought the house in metro Raleigh. He’s convinced now that his 20% downpayment is mostly gone and would have to write a check at closing if he sold now.

Sounds good to me about N.C. I was raised in W.S. Looking forward to trying to find a house there when I retire.

Uh, you might want to take a look at the budgets of most town, cities, states, and governments.

After that you might want to take a small peek into people’s personal finances.

In local news, the Village of Penn Yan voted to close the valve on the sewer treatment line serving part of the Town of Jerusalem for lack of payment. Our government is organized State/County/Town/Village.

There is plenty of something floating around in the system. It isn’t dollars.

Whoh, that’s a nasty public health issue.

And my understanding is that local governments were the worst when it comes to detecting bubbles. You think think that some poor soul on a town council would say “Gee, our tax revenue went up awfully fast…something ain’t right…maybe we ought to treat this as a windfall and bank the money…because it could disappear any minute…”

But no, they partied like it was, well, 2005.

And my understanding is that local governments were the worst when it comes to detecting bubbles.

It’s hard to tell which individuals or institutions were the worst with so very many cretins to choose from, but I think it’s fair to say most local governments are now victims of starry-eyed short-term thinking.

they just hire more planners here

Uh, you might want to take a look at the budgets of most town, cities, states, and governments.

OK - let’s look at that:

2007 Q3 State and Local government spending: $1.71T annual rate
2009 Q3 State and Local government spending: $1.79T annual rate

Aside from that - the U.S. government, spending $3.55T per year, says “Bah - amateurs”.

As stated - there’s plenty of money floating around the system - even on a local level. Sorry, but your theory of scarcity of money is a myth. It’s not scarce at all - just being taken rapidly from the non-government class to the (ever-growing) government class.

“Sorry, but your theory of scarcity of money is a myth.”

Boy, am I ever glad to be wrong! For a while I thought the economy was in deep trouble.

I’ll notify the towns, cities, counties, states, the entire country even - even the world - that their money worries are over.

Those who are to be on the receiving end of 57 trillion (or whatever number of trillions) dollars of unfunded obligations should at last be able to sleep well at night.

P.S. Sorry not trying to be argumentative - seems like you and I are generally on the same page w/respect to economic philosophy. I just think there are a lot more $$ out there than you think, and more is being created than you think.

Perhaps a good analogy would be computer memory. At any given time there’s a finite supply in existence; if you really need it and don’t have it (e.g. have an old PC with low memory, and just bought a new app that needs more memory than you have), then yeah it can be very valuable.

Over time though, as it becomes easier to make, the supply just grows and grows, and the value of memory in existence goes down and down. 3 years ago a 1G thumb drive was about $70; now, if you can find one that small, you can get one for probably $5.

(even inflation-adjusted )

“Sorry, but your theory of scarcity of money is a myth.”

Those who are to be on the receiving end of 57 trillion (or whatever number of trillions) dollars of unfunded obligations should at last be able to sleep well at night.

As you state, correctly, in your other post - the key is the distribution. While the municipalities, and individuals, have less $$ in storage than they previously did, they don’t have access to less of it, as evidenced by the still-very-high level of consumer spending, government spending, etc. Especially true of the Federal government of course, whose spending is still rapidly ramping up. The Wall Street firms are of course collecting an ever-larger percentage of the actual store of $$. As long as they’re willing to keep the floodgates open - which they are (because it’s how they’re making the insane profits in the first place) - then the supply of $$ will continue to grow, chasing an ever-dwindling and/or static set of actual goods and services as the economy shrinks.

As I said on another post, the dollar problem is one of distribution, not quantity.

Ooops, I just read your above post; I should have read it before I posted mine.

You make that sound like a bad thing. New U.S. anthem should be “I’m forever blowing bubbles.” What do ya expect with all that loose change sloshing around the planet. Buy Gold and prosper.P.S. world gold production is down 1 million ounces per year and falling.

Interesting point. Not seeing the link between the housing bubble and other rolling bubbles (gold, stocks, oil, golf courses) is possibly why you think things are back to normal.

Eddie, could you please refer me to someone who will lend me 125% of my gold purchase?

wombatz posted this in bits yesterday:

“No warning can save a people determined to grow suddenly rich.”

-Samuel Jones Loyd, (1796-1883) 1st Baron Overstone, British banker and politician.

IMHO, this bubble hopping - perhaps more then anything else - is proof that this is an economy/empire/society in terminal decline. The peeps are growing more frantic in their search for the next big thing. The cross currents are astounding with so many looking in so many different directions all at once: to the markets, commodities, emerging markets, and even real estate.

The only word that sums up all this frenzied and contradictory behavior would be…crescendo.

Well you have the goldbugs, who maintain that since gold=money a bubble is impossible. I’ve given up on arguing with them. To me, the question is: Is the gold bubble like the housing bubble in 2004 or 2006? Personally, I suspect that gold has some legs, but remember, it is much less sticky than RE. Witness what happened to the Hunt brothers with silver. The price can return to earth with AMAZING quickness. I’m just too chicken to engage in that kind of speculation.

edgewaterjohn,

And that’s the very effect we should be concerning ourselves with. The ‘frenzy’ as you put it, isn’t about “being rich” any more ( it’s about not getting caught w/ your pants down and winding up “poor”! )

As in folks like me and you. People that will never be able to trade their phony ‘profits’ for influence and sure to be left out in the cold. If you have to ef’ everyone around you to not be poor, than so be it.

That’s the cast of thousands we love to have so much fun here at their expense. Even though few succeed, and certainly fewer long term, it hasn’t slowed them down in their pursuit in the least?

To me, the question is: Is the gold bubble like the housing bubble in 2004 or 2006?

Are there NINJA loans with which to buy gold?

Exactly. There is no normal anymore. It’s a never ending series of booms and busts. That is the new normal. And if you’re waiting for this to change and go back to the “good old days” you’ll be waiting a long time.

“Eddie, could you please refer me to someone who will lend me 125% of my gold purchase?”

No but I can refer to you a whole bunch of people who will sell you GLD on a 10% margin.

IMHO, this bubble hopping - perhaps more then anything else - is proof that this is an economy/empire/society in terminal decline. The peeps are growing more frantic in their search for the next big thing.

I think you’re absolutely right about les peeps searching for the next big thing.

It’s premature to predict the “terminal decline” of the American empire, however — diminishment, yes; debasement, yes; hard times, yes. Complete implosion? Doubtful, IMO.

I’m seeing evidence that gold is now functioning under a new economic reality.

The situation now varies from ones in the past and gold is forming a firm base at a new, higher level.

I’m seeing evidence that XXXXX is now functioning under a new economic reality.

Huh. Where have we heard that before?

But it also matters WHERE one buys gold. In the USA gold has been a great investment the past year. In Brazil, not so much at all.

So remember, when buying gold, it’s LOCATION, LOCATION, LOCATION….

So Rio what you’re saying is THIS TIME IT’S DIFFERENT.

Hmmm where did I hear that before.

Substitute the word gold with real estate and every gold bug talking point is identical to the NAR talking points in 2005. How can you all not see this?

Eddie, I have the opposite thought. Just IMO.

I think that gold should be at about 1000. The same way that debt pumped up the value of the dollar, I think gold was suppressed all these years. People thought the “booming” US was a great place to put cash. Now that we know that the US is not booming, gold is rising swiftly to match the real value of the dollar.

Anything about 1000 is bubble. The dollar is in the middle of a tug-o-war (printing press vs. money destruction), and isn’t moving at all. Yes there will be speculative bubbles and crashes, but gold will not fundamentally drop until the US is on solid footing again. By solid footing, I mean: real jobs, health care that is friendly to small business, a resolution to the wars, new energy infrastructure, etc.

So, Eddie, just to clarify, according to you:

There IS a housing bubble if it lets you bash gold, but there ISN’T a housing bubble when you prattle away about robust demand for $400,000 to $800,000 houses being bought with toxic loans as you mentioned a few days back.

In summary: the housing bubble is great and never existed, now get out there and buy something you can’t afford today to get rich.

Right…

I’m not so much a gold or silver bug; I just want to maintain the value of my capital and want to know how to do it. It seems that there is a surfeit of money in the system (since Bretton Woods II? or even BW I?) that gets exponentially worse every year. It seems to me that inflation is inevitable in the long term (due to increased money and commodity shortages tied to energy shortages, etc.) but it does not preclude deflation in the short term and falling prices as more baby boomers try to sell their assets to fewer of us younger folks.

I’ve seen posters write, “Got cash?”, “Got gold?”, “Got food?”, “Got guns?” and “Got popcorn?”. But what are you guys really doing? We can discuss any of the previous statements or the ones that follow. As I said last night, I just finished my Master’s thesis and am actively looking for work. Meanwhile, I’m just trying to stay ahead of things and I think that we can help each other out. Now, in my opinion, those “things” are a gathering storm, but perhaps you could show me the blue sky and green shoots.

It doesn’t seem as though any asset class increases in value during a deflation (unless you have a warehouse so that you can buy on the cheap and then sell when prices rebound?) although I suppose that the value of hoarded cash would go up due to falling prices.

Personally, I have physical silver, food and water for three months and a bit of protection for it, ahem. I feel that these are a hedge against bad inflation as well as a temporary breakdown of the system. I am trying to acquire skills and arable land with water for a further breakdown (figured that I could bring us back to housing a bit via utter collapse) without becoming an “end of the worlder”. What am I missing big picture here? A trip to the shrink?

MrBubble

PS: I love to play music and cook and bike, so I’m not this gloomy Gus sitting in my parents’ basement. In fact, I’m biking from Napa to Vallejo to catch the ferry to SF to play music tonight. I’m in a great place but I just keep feeling like the other shoe is going to drop. Then again, I have felt this way since June 2005 when I sold my condo!

Oh, the gold thing again. I look at the gold holdings as insurance against the dollar collapsing. Current prices are a bubble and I’m sure there are leveraged funds buying gold to keep it high right now.

The current price of gold is well above what it takes to get the stuff out of the ground. So, yep another bubble.

Of course, not so much if you believe the dollar is going away.

Personally, we deflationistas believe that common sense will prevail and the dollar will make a come back.

Anyhow, if you believe the dollar will collapse then buying real estate is a good idea as well, since your debt will be erased with the hyperinflation. Might as well go all in with the stock market too.

Good luck all.

Exactly. There is no normal anymore. It’s a never ending series of booms and busts. That is the new normal.

Pfftt! That’s been the norm here in the Centennial state for decades. Boom, bust, boom, bust…..

So Rio what you’re saying is THIS TIME IT’S DIFFERENT.

Good catch Eddy. Kinda. There were actually 3 parroted cliches. I’m just having a little fun today.

I’m seeing evidence that gold is now functioning under a new economic reality.

(Inspired by that Florida shill back in 05? saying Southern Fla housing was operating under some kind of new economic model.)

The situation now varies from ones in the past…

(This time is different)

HBB quiz: What was the inspiration for the next line? Anyone?

gold is forming a firm base at a new, higher level.

P.S. But I still don’t know if gold is in a bubble or not.

probably the stock market in early 2008.

Pondering the Mess:

No. There WAS a housing bubble. There IS a gold bubble. The similarities are uncanny. The r/e pimps that you detest so much were acting and saying what the gold pimps are acting today.

How can you not see that?

even if you believe inflation is in our future real estate is not a good investment. This is why I am very comfortable in cash.

1. Consumer will have less money to spend on real estate as more of his or her income will go to food and fuel and clothes and medical.
2. Interest rates will rise rapidly causing prices to fall.
3. There is a huge oversupply of houses and an even larger oversupply of rooms and sq footage. Thus people can save money by moving in with mom or getting a roomate etc.

There is no way to pump up real estate except by increasing wages decreasing unemployment and rising population. I don’t see the printing press fixing these things anytime soon.

HBB quiz: What was the inspiration for the next line? Anyone?

Believe that would be Irving Fisher.

Believe that would be Irving Fisher.

That’s it.

“Stock prices have reached what looks like a permanently high plateau.” - Irving Fisher, Ph.D. in economics, Oct. 17, 1929

“No but I can refer to you a whole bunch of people who will sell you GLD on a 10% margin.”

10% margin for physical delivery? I don’t think so. Even if it were true that still isn’t the same. In my stated case I could “buy” $100,000 of gold today with $25,000 cash at closing. Nor even close to the same thing, and again there is no place I know of that will give 10% margin on physical. Please cite a link or reference because that is the deal of all deals.

Eddie,
You TOTALLY hit your stride on this thread. Thank you for sparking this great conversation and for the civil way you’ve argued it. Well played, sir!

“even if you believe inflation is in our future real estate is not a good investment. This is why I am very comfortable in cash.

1. Consumer will have less money to spend on real estate as more of his or her income will go to food and fuel and clothes and medical.
2. Interest rates will rise rapidly causing prices to fall.
3. There is a huge oversupply of houses and an even larger oversupply of rooms and sq footage. Thus people can save money by moving in with mom or getting a roomate etc.

There is no way to pump up real estate except by increasing wages decreasing unemployment and rising population. I don’t see the printing press fixing these things anytime soon.”

I would agree with your assessment measton, wrt real estate. I am living proof of #3. Moved in with the S.O. a couple weeks ago.

However, why cash? Isn’t the value of each dollar less in an inflationary period? Cash would seem good in deflationary times, no? Can you ’splain this to me!?

MrBubble

For a guy needing a job, seeing wages down and unemployment up, money for necessities scarce and interest rates going up, you sure seem overly worried about inflation.

No doubt gold could appear to be at bubble prices if measured in terms of US dollars, the value of which has been fluctuating madly.

However, the long-term value of gold (as measured in terms of the goods/services or equivalent it can buy) has remained remarkably consistent over the last 5 or 6 millennia, if you follow Bill Bonner and his gang. Err, don’t they still send astronauts and recon pilots up with emergency gold coins, instead of $100 US bills or pre-charged debit cards?

The following site shows various things priced in gold instead of in dollars or some other fiat currency. Interesting stuff.
http://pricedingold.com/

What do housing prices look like when measured in terms of a family’s yearly household income - or in gold?

Hey Eddie, I’m waiting for that super sweet hook up you promised.

There are already tax incentives in place to do all of those things.

Again rather than sending the money to the banks create jobs and improve our infrastructure and efficiency. Tax incentives should be increased to the point that it drives down unemployment.

+10

“I think we’ve seen the AWG models collapse to dust in the past few weeks.”

Well, I think that we’ve seen a manufactured imbroglio that hinges upon some poor word choice and machinations by a few researchers. Please post the data. I haven’t wanted to wade into the more further than I did when the “story” broke.

“I would however support long term energy independance [sic] and efficiency improvements.”

100% agree.

It’s that the rate of change of CO2 concentration (yes, a proxy for temperature up until 400 years ago) is greater than it has been for millions of years and the amount of CO2 added to the global pool is anthropogenic in nature. MrBubble

This is the crucial point, the “rate of change” and its difference in magnitude now.
Have any reports cited reasons to seriously question the validity of this conclusion?

Why I ask: Let’s say I lie to receive funding that enables me to do some half-assed work that determines that water boils at 100 degrees Celsius. Is not the conclusion valid in spite of my methods or the legitimacy of the funding?

Some say the models and science are in question but no one has cited reasons why these alleged faults have altered the facts of the conclusion. For example: If I’m drunk, stoned and a Democrat and I just stick a Chinese oven thermometer in a pot of water that reads boiling at 100 degrees C, well my “model” and “science” are questionable but my conclusion is still valid.

If I’m drunk, stoned and a Democrat and I just stick a Chinese oven thermometer in a pot of water that reads boiling at 100 degrees C, well my “model” and “science” are questionable but my conclusion is still valid.

Problem is, there is serious scientific dissent about claims of global warming, and the debate has far-reaching implications concerning government mandates vs. economic and political freedom. There are no such issues about the statement that water boils at 100 C.

There are no such issues about the statement that water boils at 100 C.

I understand but where is the data questioning the conclusion that the rate of change in CO2 has recently increased dramatically?

Actually water does boil well below 100 C in some places (higher elevations).

Actually water does boil well below 100 C in some places (higher elevations).

That’s true! And that kind of shows that many scientific “proofs” can be picked apart while still not greatly undermining the overriding point.

That is why I’m wondering about the strength or existence of the data undermining the spike in CO2 theory.

I’m wondering about the strength or existence of the data undermining the spike in CO2 theory.

A theory requires evidence to support it. Just by being proposed, a theory does not immediately put a burden of proof on skeptics to DISPROVE it.

And of course, the rise in CO2, even if proven, is only one link in the long and tenuous chain of the GW alarmists. It is also necessary to prove (1) that the CO2 rise is man-made, (2) that CO2 causes GW and not the other way around, (3) GW is occurring, (4) GW is a bad thing, and (5) the scale of the impending cataclysm is such that we must all pay huge new taxes to Algore or face extinction.

Just by being proposed, a theory does not immediately put a burden of proof on skeptics to DISPROVE it.

I know. Usually. However it should require the burden when the proposed theory, supported by scientific method, is being disparaged for mainly political reasons.

Disputes on interpretation on the data here at world climate report. You can write John Cristy at U of Alabama

@ Rio http www worldclimatereport com index php 2009 11 10 airborne-fraction-of-human-co2-emissions-constant-over-time/

You should check out the site.

You should check out the site.

OK

“Problem is, there is serious scientific dissent about claims of global warming,”

Not true, actually.

“Of course non-’Mericun houses are invariably sealed up seamlessly with R-48 insulation throughout…”

They don’t attempt to heat/cool 7200 sq ft to 78/68F for four people, but whatever. You win. We really should be leaders here.

MrBubble

Measton –

E=mc^2 baby!

BTW — did you not get my sarcasm or did I not get yours?

MrBubble

I just filed for EDD. Where do I show up for work, sirs?

MrBubble

I’ve got an orchard full of fruit and nut trees that need pruning, and a lot of oak deadfall to cut into rounds, Mr.Bubba. I’ll write you a note….

Getting laid off in good times is not wretched. Getting laid off in bad times is a disaster, my very sheltered friend.

And it has nothing to with identity and everything to do with being able to eat an not have to live under a bridge or in a tent or out of your car (if you still have one). And that’s NO hyperbole.

Eddie;

Yes if you don’t have kids and your life doesn’t revolve around family… no job means what do I do next..

—————————
that losing one’s job is synonymous with losing one’s identity.

Wow. Eddie “worked” 4 hours a day, still got his full-time salary, and still got a “nice” severance in the form of a “fat check” and parlayed his hard-earned monies into a career where he makes 3 times more. Cake, anyone?

“…since that’s what i spent most of my time doing.”

“…Read the post again, carefully this time.”

Speaking of spending your time, how long it take you to the “Beave” out of the teacup?

Wii ping pong is just out. Played it at best buy and it was a load of fun.

Love the Wii.

Too funny.

I’ve been bearish on every real estate article on the local paper’s site for years. To the point that if I’m late to posting others will ask where I am I miss the good old days where others would accuse me of hurting their home values by stating my opinion.

You ain’t missing nothing in Kansas City…….

- Chiefs and Royals still suck (exception: Z. Greinke)
- The barbeque and steaks are still great.
- KCMO City government is still a big Charlie-Foxtrot
- The Phelps Family are still wackos……..but now that most of the locals have figured out their “Master Plan”, they are doing most of their “protests” out of town.

What is missing from this analysis:

Analytical flaws notwithstanding to the contrary, I tend to agree with their general conclusion that the dollar is oversold at this point.

Dec. 1, 2009, 12:01 a.m. EST
Everyone hates the buck
Commentary: Some hope exists for the despised dollar

By Michael Kahn

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) — It seems that no matter what type of analyst is talking, the theme is that everything happening in the world today is supposed to hurt the U.S. dollar.

Rising spending, near-zero interest rates and the need to export our way out of economic malaise all grind the greenback down.

But it is just this type of sentiment that has set the dollar up for a nice little surprise.

Sentiment analysis is the most misunderstood tool in the chartist’s toolbox. There is no sentiment ETF that trades and we cannot say that sentiment went up or down by some specific percent each day.

Rather, it is a more abstract concept where we take polls of investors, analysts and newsletter writers. Each one can yield different results, too.

Subjectivity is the name of the game so we must be both flexible and creative. For example, just reading the news media tells us that the prevailing mood surrounding the dollar is negative. Indeed, we can make the leap that the mood is so skewed towards the bearish side that contrarians start to notice. If everyone is bearish, who is left to sell?

Jake Bernstein, proprietor of Trade-Futures.com and a 40-year veteran of futures trading, reports that his Daily Sentiment Index (DSI) is at an extreme low of 14% bulls, as of Nov. 20. That means an overwhelming majority traders polled think the dollar is going lower. And typically, that precedes a low in the market.

We can also look at basic charts of the dollar index for more traditional technical reads on its condition. When we do, we see a clear and persistent down trend. Bearish, to be sure, until we notice that technical indicators have been creeping higher, not lower, as the greenback falls. (See chart)

Specifically, the widely followed relative strength index (RSI) has set higher lows while the dollar has set lower lows. This divergence between price and indicator tells us the power of the declining trend has diminished. It also creates conditions for a reversal although it far from a buy signal on its own.

What chart watchers demand now is proof from the market itself that it wants to go up and that comes in the form of a resistance breakout. Again, at the time of this writing, there was a short-term ceiling in the 75.80 - 76.00 area.
…

More analysis here which ignores the role of monetary policy in determining the value of currency:

Dollar May Extend Drop as Housing Gain, Dubai Talks Spur
By Oliver Biggadike

Dec. 2 (Bloomberg) — The dollar may extend its decline against most major currencies after U.S. pending home resales unexpectedly rose and Dubai World said its debt talks are “constructive,” adding to demand for higher-yielding assets.

The dollar dropped yesterday for a second day against the euro as U.S. stocks rose following advances in Europe. Canada’s dollar traded at a six-week high versus the greenback as gold touched a record and crude oil climbed. The yen fell against its 16 most-traded peers after Japan’s policy makers said they are ready to add money to the economy to support the recovery.

“It’s more the type of risk seeking we saw in September and October,” said Amelia Bourdeau, a senior strategist for the currencies of 10 developed markets at UBS AG in Stamford, Connecticut. “There are investors who want to close out these risk-seeking positions and investors who want to get in. So they wait for that pullback and get in.”
…

Advise for Huckabee: Stay away from tanks.