The Housing Bubble

The turn off for me was paying $20 for 1 good song and getting a bunch of garbage with it.

Maybe they are better live then on the cd….I know some bands just kinda freeze up in a sterile studio.

Musicians should make most of their money from live performances. That said, the bubble in ticket prices over the course of the past 10 years was absolutely ridiculous.

Packaging, distribution, and marketing are what makes the bucks these days. btw, it’s the same with farming. Farmers see very little of the money. It all goes to ADM.

It’s all about the middle-men. That’s where all of our nation’s wealth is being diverted: bankers, lawyers, realtors, salesmen of all stripes, etc. They lock up information and create laws that mandate people use their services.

Al, the advertising rate (say for a quarter-page ad) that a newspaper can charge goes down as the circulation goes down. So it’s a double whammy.

Some more on post-Napster business models

It has been more than a decade since I was last fully immersed in the recorded music business [and then only peripherally as GM of eMusic.com,] and I have long held out hope that musicians would ditch the old media model, both the business and the manufacturing sides, and fully embrace the huge possibilities that the unfettered social web allows them — asymmetrical distribution as opposed to old media distribution silos, two-way communication with music fans as opposed to old media PR, and marketing tactics and an unparalleled universal sandbox in which to experiment.

-Dave Allen, Gang of Four

But then lavi, how would we ever be blessed with Lady Gaga and that Fergie chick. [whoever this new Fergie is, I still think of Fergie as Prince Andrew's ex-wife.]

BBC IS chopped liver!

“the difference between govt run and govt funded…”

There is NO difference. If you don’t write what your sponsor wants you to write, they cut off funding. You saw no dead tree reporting of the housing bubble as it was inflating because the real estate industry would have pulled all their ads in a heartbeat.

The Golden Rule: The man (or government) with the gold makes the rules.

I listen to or watch PBS, NPR and BBC. All of them clearly are biased and have some groups they will absolutely not go after.

Where I live, the local paper has an 84 percent market penetration, meaning 84 percent of everyone in the county looks at either the paper-paper or the website-paper. Nobody else even comes close. While readership is declining, online goes up, up and up. The problem is online can only charge 1/10th of what the dead tree paper can charge for an ad.

Let me take a step further? To be truthful, the only ‘news’ that ’should’ be of interest to investors, would be coming from a source that-is-making-you-money!

In terms of the financial news media, I think that’s a good assumption. But I was talking about all news media.

ET-Chicago,

Understood. I was thinking just yesterday though that.., with ALL of the stupid special interest channels we have going on out there.., why ‘couldn’t’ we have a “Portland Business NEWS Channel”?

All that Glitters ( GLD ) coverage on PM?

I think Sirus has an “All Stones All the Time” station, so why not? Investors are going to want to dance w/ those that brung ‘em. I know “I” do.

FINANCIAL media were all over this a long time ago. Forbes, Barron’s, WSJ, you name it, they all had at least SOME commentators calling down the housing bubble and presenting a reasonable background of facts to buttress their arguments. The cheerleading media were the city newspapers. Right, the ones dependent on REIC advertising.

As a matter of fact, they even reported about Ben’s blog back in 2005/2006. People were talking about it, but the stories were few and far-between.

DJ, I think you missed my point. I concur, the newspapers don’t innovate. Government shouldn’t intervene. Just like Government shouldn’t intervene by erecting economy-killing tariffs.

Michael above raises a good point about “fair trade”. Yes the developing world does not share our standards. This can be solved without Tariffs. A few ideas come to mind–maybe some regulations around basic product quality.

But in many cases, we can’t simply expect a developing nation to pay their people what we pay here in the US. That simply isn’t possible, their economies wouldn’t support it.

So are we saying that we should not trade with these developing economies until they are as economically advanced as we are? They never will get there with out trade.

Yankee:

The guvmint should not intervene except I agree with Murdock…the guvmint should allow cross ownership of newspapers and radio tv again. Prohibiting them was fine 20 years ago before the internet but today its killing the business

Heck the NYT sold its classical radio station for $45 million changed frequencies with a Spanish reggaeton station and turned it over to a non profit so it can continue playing classical music on a less powerful frequency.

And you are right if WE paid people in Guatemala what people get here they would be filthy rich

So where is the balance between workers making socks in La Paz and here in North Carolina?

aNYCdj,

I realize this may be as popular as a turd in a puncbowl, but I’ve said for years, it’s time to let classical music die a natural death.

Make it as comfortable as you can in the ‘hospice’, pay your last respects, and move on. If it really ‘was’ all that “essential” ( why do we have to keep subsidizing it? ) IMHO.

My opinion is that if a non-criminal entity can make socks in La Paz that are competitive in our market, then we should let them be competitive. If they beat us in the market, then we had better find something else to be good at.

Maybe government intervention is better utilized investing in resources that will develop new ideas / products / services that can replace the sock manufacture. Or, better yet. government intervention is probably best when it creates a client and environment for developing these new ideas / products / services. There is also a role in funding basic research and innovation.

There is yet another role, in developing appropriate tax credits and other breaks (some would decry as corporate welfare) to encourage manufacturing here.

When you look at it, the labor component of complex manufacturing is only a small percentage of the overall capital invested, so it isn’t always the game changer (unless it is a labor intensive business versus a capital intensive business). T

There are ways to encourage production here, and we aren’t doing them.

We could say that for rock and jazz too IMHO.

Impossible.

No matter what you make, the technology can be swiftly stolen and there will always be a dirt farmer in a mud hut somewhere who’s willing to work 12+ hours a day, every day, for 1 bowl of rice.

Unless we ALL want to have that standard of “living,” we need tariffs or something similar to make sure we have jobs in the future. The rich won’t help - they want us to be poor since that gives them more power - and we can’t compete with the 3rd world directly without becoming 3rd world.

In Montana,

In ways, I can very much agree. Our local Jazz station ( 89.1 KMHD ) would have long dried up and blown away had it ‘not’ been for their re-alignment with NPR.

( And the generous donations of… )

Where I’ll differ is on “classic rock” ( a more worn out phrase never existed ) If you look at most of their formats, it’s based on less than 500 songs. IMHO opinion, just working th “B” side alone would have lent it -another- 20 years.

My opinion is that if a non-criminal entity can make socks in La Paz that are competitive in our market, then we should let them be competitive.

I agree. La Paz Arizona could use a sock factory or any kind of factory.

we can’t compete with the 3rd world directly without becoming 3rd world.

This is like saying that we shouldn’t allow computer automation of jobs that were formerly done manually, on the grounds that we can’t compete with computers without becoming computers.

In other words, it’s a completely wrong argument. In reality, outsourcing benefits both parties at the expense of TEMPORARY dislocation of employment. But this dislocation happens anyway at periodic intervals because of new technologies. Trying to stop it is just Luddism.

The NYT was subsidizing it for 40 years and the last few years it was profitable….I actually like a lot of classical music but i think it should be subsidized either by NPR or a non profit.

What i think is a waste is college radio stations who play classical. and there are a lot, and the students are deprived of a great resource to learn about broadcasting being a DJ or a program director, dealing with talent, management…..
———————————————
I realize this may be as popular as a turd in a puncbowl, but I’ve said for years, it’s time to let classical music die a natural death.

Temporary dislocation of employment? So how are all of these unemployed people supposed to make a living? You can’t run a country entirely on high-skill thinky work. People are too poor to afford the education, and to be honest they aren’t smart enough anyway. Not to mention that thinky-work is the easiest to outsource.

So, there are no skill-matched jobs for a lot of Americans. They can’t afford training, and there aren’t enough jobs even if they did train, and half this blog wants to take them off the dole. What do you propose they do?

Yankee Bear ….Whenever you make your case for unregulated globalism ,you never consider the fact that the different Countries have different costs of living ,different governments ,didn’t rules ,and they are not the UNITED STATES ,therefore we do not have to compete with them by proper trade balances and tariffs . The biggest reason is because we want jobs and we don’t want our Nation to go broke .

I remember when it cost 5 cents for a orange here in America ,Japan charged 5 bucks to their citizens for same imported oranges ,just so we wouldn’t take over .

It’s simply a issue of the fact that you can’t mix economies of different Countries without leveling out the playing field ,or the Country with slave labor takes over all the manufacturing of the World ,just because they do it cheaper . That leaves the rest of the world without any jobs . So a long time ago
people figured this out and they created trade taxes and trade balances to prevent this sort of eventual outcome,until the
crooked Politicians were bribed by near-sighted self-interest group who can’t see the forest through the trees ,that only think of short term gains .

Its a National Security issue also . Lets say a Communist Country wants to take over the World and its resources by providing cheap slave labor and so they were able to create that monopoly and do everything “cheaper “(I’m being extreme here to prove a point) .Eventually that Communist Country would have all the jobs and all the production and all the byproducts of that while all the other Countries would go bust because they couldn’t compete . So your unregulated Globalism would eventually create the biggest monopoly in the World and China wouldn’t even have to fire a shot to take over .

To further my points . Countries need to start doing right by their own people . Rather than the workers of the World going down to slave status ,just being able to survive ,so no doubt Corporations can make more money ,or Communist Countries can amass a lot of money for their government for no-good purpose maybe , workers need to be treated as human beings to begin with . The United States Constitution use to protect the individual ,and other Countries don’t exactly go along with that theory .

Doesn’t it just make you cringe when you read about people working 16 hours a day ,and some Overlord makes up some bogus reason for taking their little bit of money earned . Things like this are going on in the World .

Actually, the advantage of a dead tree newspaper is that after you’ve read it, you can dispose of it. Read it on you morning commute, and you don’t have to carry it home. If you drop it, throw it away, if it rains, cover your head with it, you don’t have to keep it from getting wet. And since it ends up in a landfill, where nothing decays, you’re fighting global warming by performing a kind of carbon sequestration: Tree takes CO2 out of the air, tree is turned into newspaper, new tree is planted, newspaper is buried in a landfill where it sits indfinitely.

While they’re not forests, and they don’t promote biodiversity, it’s not clear to me that an acre of young trees on a treefarm take any less CO2 out of the air than an old growth forest.

People are too poor to afford the education, and to be honest they aren’t smart enough anyway. Not to mention that thinky-work is the easiest to outsource.

So, there are no skill-matched jobs for a lot of Americans. They can’t afford training, and there aren’t enough jobs even if they did train, and half this blog wants to take them off the dole.

What a litany of doom. No jobs, no training, no education, no money, no welfare, everyone’s stupid and lazy and broke. Dude, the Carter administration ended almost 30 years ago. Get a grip.

thinky-work is the easiest to outsource

I don’t agree with this either. In theory, this blog should be full of incisive comments from visitors the world around. In reality, what is it, like 5% of posts are from foreigners? Are you worried that people will stop reading your blog posts because of foreign competition?

I know many, many architects, engineers, accountants, doctors, etc. out of work because their “thinky work” got offshored.

As I’ve stated recently, I’ve now lived to see 6 recessions and each one produced fewer jobs that paid a decent living after they were “over.”

NOBODY can compete on price with slave labor. Nobody.

As for import tariffs, you really should visit more of the world. We are the only fools who allow ourselves to be screwed by cheap imports.

Recession’s got nothing to do with it. The company I worked for recently (telecom) started offshoring engineering in 2005, and it was in full swing by 2007, before the recession started.

Three main causes:
- Differences in labor laws (OSHA etc.)
- Differences in environmental laws
- Minimum wage laws

If we had a level playing field, there would not be nearly as much offshoring as there is.

“People are too poor to afford the education, and to be honest, they aren’t smart enough anyway.”

I see it a little differently. Because America had a history of prosperity based on resources, then based on imperialism, then based on a credit bubble, people to whom education was freely available chose not to value it. That’s the main reason (IMO) why our teenagers have been far behind those of other countries, in terms of learning. A little starvation and servitude may prove highly motivating.

Yes, some thinky-work can be outsourced. If we had the highest-skilled labor force, though, we would probably ultimately retain the highest standard of living, since we still have decent infrastructure, predictable legal framework, etc.

Three main causes:
- Differences in labor laws (OSHA etc.)
- Differences in environmental laws
- Minimum wage laws

One represents a movement in descent..the inverse is a movement in ascent…let’s see the forest from the trees.

RIO ,well said .

Absolutely. Excellent post, Rio.

Of course government took over GM. And it has lots of control over GM. But government did NOT take over the INDUSTRY, which is what your talking point was.

As I said, government does not own any of TOYOTA. They have no control over TOYOTA. Or Ford, or Honda, or Hyundai, or Suzuki, or Kia, or Lexus, or Acura, or BMW, or Tesla. If GM disappeared overnight (and it was about two weeks from doing just that), there would still be a car industry, still free from government. Don’t call me nuts.

ok man…look up the GM and chrysler’s u.s. market share and that’s what the goverment has significant control over…15%…25%…35?%.

throw in the cash for clunkers program and that is a significant enough “takeover” for me…not you apparently.

Gm is the largest car company in the country. It is owned by the govt. You’re being dishonest by saying it didnt take over.

Also no bureaucrats work as baggage haulers at airports. But the airports are run by the govt are they not? The bbc is owned by the govt yet I see no bureaucrats working as anchors. Dont confuse worker bees on the front lines with who runs things.

I got invited to local meeting at the local paper, who is hurting (Virginia Pilot.) I guess they were trying to figure out how to boost comments online. They flat out said that the majority of their readership by far and wide is the deadwood version. Of course, that falls off for young people.

LOL - come back soon!
We all need a dose of Crazy once in a while…

exeter,

Agreed. People love to blather on about Gov’t control but the truth for at least the last decade, was that the REIC was driving the bus.

And… like everything the REIC has run over the last ten years…

From what I’ve seen in the political spectrum, real estate is the #1 way to “gain favor” in political circles. City councils and even our congressional representatives and senators often have very close ties to people in the REIC.

Debt service is part of the cost of doing business. You subtract out debt payments before you count the profits.

You’re right. I was quoting something I read from memory. Probably they have to generate that much more income to service the debt.

Like the Christian Science Monitor?

They used to be pretty a credible source but no one seems to reference it much anymore. I wonder what happened to it, other than the growing irrelevance of Christian Science.

They went from moderate to very left.

I wonder what happened to it, other than the growing irrelevance of Christian Science.

The Christian Scientists don’t even seem to care about health care reform either.

I keep wondering if Christian Scientists could argue that requiring them to buy health insurance policies would be a violation of the separation of Church and State?

oxide,

Well how long have I been saying that? Given the status quo, if you’re going to e’f up, do it BIG!

And that’s why lenders are in such a pickle. You’re not going to extend me any further credito any…way, so why should FB’s jump through any hoops?

Fico is a predictor of behavior. Statistically someone who short sells is less likely to do it again than someone who defaults on a cc. Fico is nothing but regression. Has nothing to do with rich or poor.

Eddie,

Wrong. Interesting… but,

WRONG!

FICO is a fantastic Lagging Indicator of what someone’s credit rating -used- to be! Haven’t you seen the legions of articles of loanowners that had 800+ fico’s sending in their jingle mail?

Look, you’ve got a state job, your wife works for the Fed. and… neither of you have ever had a major illness? No divorces, no lay-offs, not a care… in the World.

That’s the very “mispriced risk” we’re gagging on every day. People w/ silver spoons and all the luck you could imagine, stub their big toe and all of a sudden they want to walk away from theit 3.875% 30 Year FRM. And just when I thought we were making progress?

“…Fico is a predictor of behavior.”

Does it predict whether you prefer the “left handed” method or the “right handed” method Haskel?

O.K., O.K., I “borrowed it from Morgan Freeman in “Unforgiven”

Fico is regression anlysis. Its not perfect but it is pretty good in the aggregate. Meaning take 100 people with 750fico and 100 with 550. It is almost certain that as a group the former will pay back their debts more than the latter.

This is stats 101 folks nothing sinister about it.

Meaning take 100 people with 750fico and 100 with 550. It is almost certain that as a group the former will pay back their debts more than the latter.

This is stats 101 folks nothing sinister about it.

That’s true but we might be in the midst of a unique business cycle where the still higher credit rated individuals are hit later than the recently lower.

At least it might complicate the past assumptions.

The ratings on MBSs given by ratings agencies were also based on statistics. But the guestimates of correlation that they put into their equations turned out to be completely wrong. Mind you I’m not just saying that we are experiencing a black swan event, but that their rating were flawed and some AAA rated securities have performed much worse than OTHER AAA rated securities.

I’ve been looking into getting a German Shepherd but owners I’ve talked with tell me they are territorial.

(And they say it in a way that implies the dog is the decider of territories.) What’s your experience with this?

Good lord, if that were a concern I would have to get rid of my wife.

I had a great Shepard. She was territorial, but it was very much a house defined territory. They say females are more inclined that way. In my experience, it was mostly loyalty to me that she displayed, as once I touched a visitor, she went off guard mode. She did give the garbage man a fright once.

The only dog I’ve had that was not territorial was a Lab.

Do you know anything about the Shepherds that are trained to obey commands given in German?

I used to train and show a little. Key word is the dog is “trained”. Either you learn a few German words or teach the dog some English ones. They already know what to do and will get it with a little patience. Good possibility that a well trained dog also know the silent hand signals.

Are you considering an adoption?

If your looking for a guard breed that protects people (i.e. the family) and is not territorial my recomendation would be a bullmastiff.

Mine is wary of strangers when they come to the door but won’t get into a barking growling frenzy. He barely barks as it is. He gives percieved threat warning grunts and snorts.

Blue,

Yes I’ve considered adoption.

JMS - thanks for the suggestion about the bull mastiff.

X-philly:

If you are looking for a dog head down to your nearest GOOD animal shelter or humane society where they test the behaviors of their animals. I volunteer for the Humane Society here in town and they do an excellent job of 1.) determining how the animal will behave in different situations and 2.) working with potential adopters to find an animal that’s a good fit for the lifestyle, living conditions, needs and safety issues of the family.

I have 4 dogs and all four have very different personalities. My chow mix does not act like a chow - she’s the most gregarious dog with people and other pets you’d ever meet. And my lab mix does not act like a black lab - she’s grumpy and spends a lot of time growling at everyone else in the household, (She’s also shy around new people until she knows them, then suddenly she’s a lap dog, a 100 pound lap dog!) So adopting purely on breed characteristics may be problematic.

Also, German Shepherds are often on the list of dogs banned by landlords so that might be a consideration too. I think it’s more important to worry about the socialization a dog has had than the breed, since I’ve known pits I could trust with infants, and in five years the only dog there that has ever growled at me at the shelter was a pure blooded Golden. (He had some hearing issues so it was more of a fear response, but boy did that one surprise me. Never was nervous around a golden before!)

I hope you consider a mutt (like all four of mine) as they tend to have less health problems and quite often pick up the best traits of their breeds. (Always exception like the dog I mentioned above who looks like a sweet, mellow 100% black lab but acts like the German Shepherd she is mixed with!)

If you want to contact me about any of this my e-mail is sd.re.b at hotmail dot com and best of luck!

Mutt? I prefer the term “mystery breed”. I concur with going to an animal shelter to adopt a dog. I’ve had good success with the SPCA and the Humane Society.

The government learned a long time ago that monopolies were a bad thing and a natural byproduct of unregulated capitalism …so they created laws to regulate and curb this practice ,including regulation of price fixing .

In the last 15 years the monopoly has managed to make a come back with the Politicians special little laws and acts that encouraged it ,which benefited the bribing Special Interest Groups.

The problem with pure capitalism is that the unbridled greedy
will figure out ways to get rid of their competition by temporary price fixing ,and than they raise the price after they get rid of their competition .

What do you think having cheap foreign products are ,nothing but a monopoly until it becomes the only game in town ,if you don’t have the proper trade balances and tariffs .How many home based Corporations have folded because they can no longer compete with the foreign product monopoly .
Same with health care ,it became a monopoly whereby the private Insurance Companies in conjunction with other self interest groups took over and eliminated competition ,causing a nonstop rise in price as well as greater profits margins for the Private insurance Companies .

The Powers have a lot of nerve to say that reform of Health Care is a violation of capitalism when it’s really “busting a monopoly” that is taking place to bring back competition .

Energy <— guaranteed demand, natural geographic monopoly, common defense too. Ask the people in California what happens when government steps out of the energy industry.

Infrastructure <— guaranteed demand, not geographically portable. Building and maintenance is portable, hence the mix of private bids for public roads and such. The cars that drive ON the roads are also portable, hence private companies, with one exception.

I guess I disagree here. Basically we’ve seen government run energy in lots of places and it has done poorly. See Mexico.

Infastructure, again I disagree. Plenty of pet bridge to nowhere type projects happen. Plenty of disasters too. Katrina disaster was due to government run controls.
Again, all they do is direct the flow of capital.

So…. Not sure healthcare will run well. It’s done OK in the bubble years in a bunch of states. Not sure what will happen in hard times.

You just have to get a feel for how inefficient those things are.

Energy is the US is run pretty well. For example, the electric grid and the sewer systems.

And those infrastructure disasters happened under corrupt government. Government itself isn’t the problem, it’s corrupt government. If one admin screws something up, the people don’t want to trust any admins. The libs are fond of repeating a “starve the beast” strategy. Libs say the conservative screws government up on purpose (looting in the process), so that when a new admin is voted in, the people hate the new admin as much as the old one. We have people here who hate all government. Starve the beast is winning.

Oxide,

Those are run by local governments and communities. Most of the energy grid are private companies with some govt partnership.

I say a large scale federal control will go very very badly if that is what you are proposing.

energy grid are private companies with some govt partnership. in terms of major amts of tax benefits, all kinds of gimmes which lend itself to getting massive amts of funds for lobbyists.
Nothing truly capitalist about this at all- keep walking.

No competition, tax write-offs etc= higher rates for the hoi polloi.

“In the last 15 years the monopoly has managed to make a come back with the Politicians special little laws and acts that encouraged it ,which benefited the bribing Special Interest Groups.”

Close, Housing Wizard, but it was actually over 30 years and began with the founding the Business Roundtable in 1972. This was a group of the top 200 corporations in America at the time who outright conspired and colluded to achieve their aims.

Current events are the direct result.

Ok, i will go with it started 30 years ago as you say ecofeco.It seems like it really picked up steam in the last 15 to 20 years
to me .
The collusion word you use seems so dead on . You see the collusion between industries and you see the collusion with the
Politicians . In fact ,many of Politicians are one of them who retired and get into power spots . Never forget how Hank Paulson all of a sudden retired from Goldmans and became the Treasury Sec. at a time of National crisis after making 1/2 billion at Goldmans . Do you think maybe Mr. Paulson had something to protect ? It’s hard to watch because they are so transparent now ,while their back room deals aren’t.

sounds like california and the power industry

Oh my god, you are so right!

Not many people get this, do they?

SaladSD,

Huh? Please explain your point. I’m looking out my window as you instructed…not sure what I’m supposed to be seeing. My backyard is the Chesapeake Bay - the worlds largest estuary.

I can tell you in more than twenty-five years there is no evidence of any increasing change in water level. The water level here on the Chesapeake Bay can change by as much as fifteen feet one way or the other depending on hurricanes, wind, tides etc. but always finds itself back to levels (within days) that have been unchanged for the 25 years I’ve observed.

So again, looking out my window as you suggest - what exactly am I supposed to be seeing?

Carnage, I think the latest paper I read back in 07 time frame had 0.1mm in the last 20 years of sea level rise. From that you can conclude that sea level rise could be as much as 50′ in the next century. Might also be as little as 30″.

So that is the range. 30″ to 50′.

Best be heading for high ground.

Resist socialism (except for the rich) aggressively!

Resist socialism aggressively!

Why do I need to be so scared of it?
The Cold War ended 20 years ago…..

Many of us have already read Hayak’s “Road to Serfdom,” Rothbard’s “For a new Liberty,” Friedman’s “Free to Choose,” and so on. I haven’t read anything that comes close to describing the current situation, except perhaps ancient history.

“He told you to “go out and exterminate a female as early in life as possible.” But he didn’t tell you how to distinguish the female from the male.”

How ridiculous. The same way you tell distinguish male and female dinosaurs - lift up their skirts!

LOL

Wow! Despite HBB people agreeing that the banksters and gubment cohesion and greedy buyers are the problem, ther are still die hard government cheerleaders on this board! You guys ever thought of moving to France?

“You guys ever thought of moving to France?”

That one doesn’t work anymore.

Got any more of those mindless blue light specials?

Yes, Bill, its totally possible to be fiscally conservative and socially liberal.

You guys ever thought of moving to France?

Incidentally, France called……they want their Republican paradigm back. Apparently, ur doin’ it wrong…

Get an agent who is not afraid to make lots of low offers. Lots.

MY understanding is that good school disctricts are few and far between in Florida. And they could get a lot worse if government revenue continues to go down.

MY understanding is that good school disctricts are few and far between in Florida.

Good school districts are hard to find almost everywhere in the US, unfortunately, which makes it all the more crucial to buy wisely if one has school-age children.

Wise words.

P.S. Maybe it would help get the message across if you showed her this video.

I get by fine with my shovel.

The REAL question is

is Mrs Muggy interested in plowing that amount of snow……..

It was 56 in Syracuse today, nycdj. My Tennessee friend told me it was 47 there.

67 here in da Beeg Apple had my windows open windy but it was clean fresh air.

Muggy,

If you and your wife put your children first - you will arrive at the right decision. You’re in a tough position. My SIL recently faced a similar challenge and moved her family to rural upstate NY.

It has worked out very well for them but I recognize everyone has different situations.

It would be great to find a way to get that attitude injected into public policy.

You didn’t look at the link - did you?

I watched a couple minutes of the long connection of Citi, GS and those party insiders.

At some point we are going to realize we are the USSR.

The disease is across both party lines and in effect offer the same thing.

Its a one party system.

That aspect is depressing.

No - I mean my link.

When I get home this evening.

To badly paraphrase Gandhi: “It is difficult but not impossible to make a very good living as an honest businessman. It all but impossible to become rich without being dishonest.”

It all but impossible to become rich without being dishonest.”

I don’t believe he meant it really. He was too smart.

I wish I could find the exact quote. I’m beginning to wonder if I really saw it.

“Anyhow, since small business are the quickest and most dynamic engines for job growth”

Because AEI told you so? And you believe them….

james,

Amongst the Top 10 posts I’ve seen since I’ve been here! Absolutely never thought of it that way. Great perspective.

Since they’re all driven by their indpendent nature ( they’re not worth rounding up and branding? ) Probably head for the hills at the first opportunity anyway?

What I find offense is that for all the talk of healing… and reconciliation etc. there’s this undeniable pattern of snubbing and upturned noses? I hope they come to terms real soon that increasinly, it’s starting to look like all they have ‘left’?

“Anyhow, since small business are the quickest and most dynamic engines for job growth”

Because AEI told you so? And you believe them….

Google it - there are plenty of articles showing this is true, from the whole spectrum of sources. There was a study done recently I believe.

And if you think the WH etc. is “run by” the U.S. CoC, then you’re foolish. While the CoC is indeed a huge lobbying organization - it’s the nature of the organization that makes it so - representative of a huge array of businesses. One need only look at the composition of government appointees - Wall Street insiders etc. - to see that it’s composed much moreso of people that are counter to the CoC’s interests.

The fact that they’re not even invited to this summit speaks volumes. How could that possibly reconcile with a statement that they “run the white house”?

NPR reported this moring that small business owners were invited.

Bah. None of this matters. We just have to get all the bad debt off the books and move on with our lives.

Situation would balance itself a lot faster if prices, including labor and housing, were allowed to fall faster.

Then the balance of trade straightens out on its own as America becomes cheap.

Would like to see standards for labor and the enviroment psuhed on to trading partners though.

“NPR reported this moring that small business owners were invited.”

Uh oh….. another logical fallacy gets eviscerated.

Good work Polly.

but the bloggers said they weren’t…..

“NPR reported this moring that small business owners were invited.”

Who?

The SBA was invited, but that’s not “small business owners” - it’s a federal agency that makes loans to them. The two largest entities that represent small businesses - the US Chamber of Commerce and the National Federation of Independent Business, were not invited.

I will eat my words if I have to. Normally the chamber of commerce would be the best industry wide contact. At least, I think so at this moment.

Really don’t have much dirrect experience since… oh a long time ago.

but the bloggers said they weren’t…..

The HBB isn’t really the best place to crack on bloggers, in favor of the media; particularly government-sponsored media.

Some bloggers are ex-journalists so they know the basic rules of reporting, but not all of them. I just get tired of people e-mailing me “news” from some blog site and then I have to figure out if its true or not, on just a basic information level.

“The two largest entities that represent small businesses - the US Chamber of Commerce and the National Federation of Independent Business, were not invited.”

So the fact that NFIB protests that the USCOC doesn’t nothing to support small business and in their words “represent big business only”(and that is factual) doesn’t seem to align with your opinion.

Making stuff up doesn’t work.

U.S. President Barack Obama has called a group of more than 100 union representatives, academics and business leaders but conspicuous by their lack of invitation are people, such as the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, who have been critical of White House initiatives.

http://www.upi.com/Daily-Briefing/2009/12/03/Jobs-summit/UPI-82221259849333/

I guess these guys are liars too.

I think the democrat party line is Chamer of Commerce is a right wing hack organization dedicated to retarding social progress, destroying the environment and eating babies.

Wow. People are hard charging for protectionism. That will crater jobs and be a poor long term decision. While it does internalize things it locks us out from the large markets in Asia. They are emerging markets and it would be better to be in than out.

oye

“Chamer of Commerce is a right wing hack organization”

You got that right.

“last fall’s crash”

I am still wondering about that. Something broke. But we switched on the nitro and are going 120 mph again. When do we hit the next bump?

There is a difference between not being interested in sailing and not being interested in owning a boat.

And an even bigger difference in being able to afford to be interested.

“Apparently he paid almost nothing for it.”

My bubble trophy, if there is one, will be buying something small to have for the kiddos (fishing, tubing, whatever…)

It’s not a bad way to go.

I am loosing lots of my part time neighbors though.

THinking of getting a boat to live on myself.

Yep, I almost nought just for that, but the thought of getting it to LA, arranging achorage, etc. was just too much for me. I’ve got a lot on my plate right now.

My friend gets his Harley sportster up on deck of his ketch.

My little bro told me currently in Marina del Rey 300 for slip 600 for live aboard. 2 years ago one couldn’t get a slip at all.

As i understand it, you can get a mortgage, but i think you need a higher down payment amount. According to a friend of mine, slip fees and electric and such are not too far off what youd pay in condo fees.

The thing is I’m not opposed to curbing pollution and saving energy and having cleaner energy and all that jazz because
the quality of life is better without pollution and I don’t like the idea of running out of energy or water . Conservation is not a bad concept in and of itself and waste is so 1950’s.

“State Treasurer Dean Martin”

“Everybody… loves somebody… ’sometime’ ”

Yeah, like I say, I’ve never understood what people that don’t drink ‘do’ with money? $700 mil. in two weeks? ( I’ll never complain about my kids again! )

exeter …….That is funny how a Sanders is fighting this baby of all people . I watched him fight against TARP also . Interesting
isn’t it ? I guess he feels that corrupt Corporations shouldn’t get hand-outs and it should be reserved for the downtrodden . I don’t know I haven’t really followed his policies before the TARP
bail-out . But Sanders talking points are pretty good lately and they were excellent regarding what he said on the Senate floor
when the Tarp hearings were taking place .

I think the federal reserve could be described as socialism for the rich. So, I could see us all of us fringe people opposing them. Libertarian, teaparty and liberal alike.

From the Barsoom district?

Good times. Wouldn’t it be easier to criminalize marriage?

Isn’t it already for some people?

packman,

BINGO! And why bring it up ‘now’? Billions in default, millions of people out in the street and we’re going to worry about “access” to banking ’services’.

Dude, if you paid me a million bucks a day in pennies, I’d figure out a way to move all that copper. Jobs people. Jobs.

Fine and good - except there’s a huge difference between “little or not access”, and “choose not to use”.

“Choose not to use” is loaded in this context — the situation somewhat analogous to “food deserts,” where poor people have little access to supermarkets, farmer’s markets, etc., and instead buy overpriced crap from convenience stores and fast food joints. Yes, in some sense they “choose” not to use one option, but it can also be argued that the option is largely unavailable to them without considerable time and travel.

Sounds like the payday advance places are cutting in on the banks’ business ($billions in overdraft fees), and the banks don’t like it.

Yes, probably. But some banks — Wells Fargo, notably — have holdings in check-cashing businesses, so they play both sides of the field.

“Dude, if you paid me a million bucks a day in pennies, I’d figure out a way to move all that copper. Jobs people. Jobs.”

Pennies haven’t been made of copper for decades.

but it can also be argued that the option is largely unavailable to them without considerable time and travel.

The option to not live in BFE is always available.

Regarding banking - I seriously doubt that 26% of the population lives more than 5-10 miles from the nearest bank. Probably more like 1% at most. And that’s if you need physical access to a bank - something that generally isn’t required.

In short - the study - or at least the summary statement as presented in the article - is bunk, and an obvious attempt by the banks to extend their tentacles as far as possible into as many wallets as they can.

1+
An old Wobbly told me “Folks won’t fight back ’til their bellies are rubbin’ their backbones”.

Sad but true.

I would say - w/regards to debt level vs price level at least - there tends to be a correlation timing-wise, but not scale-wise.

Currently we’re seeing a price bubble deflation without a corresponding debt bubble deflation. Same thing happened both in the early 1980’s and the early 1990’s.

Interestingly - the only time since 1900 that we’ve had significant housing debt deflation was in the latter stages of the GD. I venture that a large part of that was due to things like WPA/CCC/etc., which required a very mobile work force and thus didn’t lend itself to people buying houses. It wasn’t until after the boys came home in the late 1940’s that housing debt started up again. Back then economic demographics lended itself to this increase. Since then (after 1970 or so)? - not so much. Recent debt increases have been all due to megabanks’ pushing their dope.

Off the top of my head, I would guess the divergence between the green and red curves might have something to do with accounting rules that don’t require marking to market.

Is that a reasonable hunch?

P.S. The green curve appears to be enjoying a “coyote that ran over the edge of the cliff and is hanging in midair” moment…

Off the top of my head, I would guess the divergence between the green and red curves might have something to do with accounting rules that don’t require marking to market.

Is that a reasonable hunch?

Yes I would very much say so. Particularly in the case of the Fed, which even if they are subject to accounting rules is not currently audited.

However that being said - another big factor I’m sure is simply lower borrowing costs - i.e. over time less and less money is being paid by people in interest service, thus allowing larger principle balances.

Being that the banks’ borrowing rate is currently essentially zero now - and has been close to it for some time - it’s thus not feasible for there to be another significant leg upward in that curve. At least - I don’t think so.

P.S. The green curve appears to be enjoying a “coyote that ran over the edge of the cliff and is hanging in midair” moment…

It does look that way.

1993 says though maybe not - maybe the rules of gravity can be broken after all.

It now stands as 2% GDP

Sorry:

It now stands as 2% OF GDP.

Wow - that’s surprising.

American bankers are apparently much more adept at extracting wealth.

gold price movements are a leading indicator of inflation.

That’s true mostly. However the spike in the late 70’s presaged 25 years of disinflation. In that period it could have been a lagging indicator? Timing and perception are tricky.

That’s true mostly. However the spike in the late 70’s presaged 25 years of disinflation. In that period it could have been a lagging indicator? Timing and perception are tricky.

Gold peaked in January 1980, while inflation peaked about 3 months later, so it was close but was a leading indicator then.

Gold surged again in fall 1980, after inflation’s summer plummet stalled at 7%, but gold went back down during the late fall while inflation was still rising (peaked in December at 12% again).

Here’s an interesting chart I made of the period. I’ve always been curious about the exact timing of things during that period, so created that the other day.

I suppose every so often, leading indicators must lead astray, especially if those buying the underlying get wrong footed by central bankers.

“…I wonder what the total acreage left in OC on which to build?”
“…hopefully with some better freeways.”

Now pay attention:

1st: it’s offically: “The O.C.”
2nd: it’s “Bren developed”
3rd: no more “freeways” only “Toll Roads”

(Hwy notes: “Toll roads are designed to make a “Profit” $$$$$$$$$$$$$$ …”The O.C. Toll Roads” are the most profitable “investment” ALL of Californian’s taxpayers have ever made in regards to Hwy construction in the “Golden State” …just ask any law or PR firm associated with their “creation” & hopefully continued… promulgation”

Hwy disclaimer/disclosure:

No I am not a member of the Sierra Club or any “other” organization out to defeat the “powers-that-be” in regards to: Charge-the-citizens-for-non-congested roadways-to-work & commerce”

However, I do note that “They” (a rather large unseen wealthy group in the background)” always promise to “provide” a “non-fee” “parallel road” that workers such as, “maids” “landscapers” “”executive nanny’s” can have access to to get to their places of employment. However, roads such as “Portola Parkway” in “The O.C.” always seem to come up short by a least a x1 or x2 mile short of connection completion, thereby “forcing” many of the above individuals to:
1. drive x6 addional miles to complete the journey to their employment
or
2. Get on the “Toll Road” and use up a “portion” of their Holiday “Thank you” bonus to make the journey on time so as not to be yelled at in a derogatory manner.

O.K., O.K., ask me how I know!