The Housing Bubble

“the real motive for people going on these gamblers loans”

Several of my co-workers (none of whom appears to defaulted yet) are young married couples who thought they would buy a small apartment (studio or 1 bedroom) and “move up” with the equity in several years when it was time to have a family.

One was planning on only paying minimum on Option ARM. Remember at the time they purchased how “drunk” with “we’re so smart and we’re gonna make a lot of money” they were.

Doubt if they’d claim to have been misinformed about the terms of their loan, but reasonably sure they’ll still feel somehow “taken advantage of” by SOMEONE else.

“Its really odd that you have so many borrowers claiming after the fact that they didn’t know they went on a adjustable loan and they thought that a 1.5 % teaser rate was a fixed rate . Maybe it’s true that many loan agents lied to borrowers as well as played games with disclosures ,I don’t know .”

When a bus that carries 120 passengers crashes in Oakland, CA its capacity magically increases by 50%, all major injuries!!

rms,

After years… of making the mistake of referring clients to MB’s, in May of ‘07 I went ahead and just got my MB license. I was among the first to take the newly OR mandated test.

The study material in no way prepared you for the test, but after years of -making- mortgage payments ( I was able to figure it out and “take the test ‘from’ the test” )

At the conclusion the test proctor said “Congratulations! You’re the 1st person to PASS!” I couldn’t believe it. He said many people that had claimed to have been MB’s for years couldn’t pass the damn thing. Res Ipsa Loquitor.

This guy writes for the WSJ and got snookered:

“On signing day I thought I was prepared for the blizzard of paperwork. I wasn’t. This is apparently a rite of passage not exclusive to any era. There was at least one big reveal: Our piggyback loan was actually a balloon loan. In 15 years, we’d have to pay a big chunk, in the thousands, in full. I was taken aback by this–how could I have missed this detail? I’m not a financial luddite.

The lawyer pulled me into a separate room to talk this over. We did some quick financial calculations, and projected what my life would be like in 14 years when Mr. Balloon came calling. We would have equity in the home, for sure. Even if home values stabilized, we’d be OK since we were in a suburb in the greater New York area. My wife would be working again, and we could throw the extra income at the piggyback loan.”

From an article linked at Yahoo Finance today. Confessions of an Underwater Homeowner

x-philly….As far as I’m concerned the borrowers should not of found out at the last minute that they were going to have a balloon balance loan . To me the loan group dealing with the borrower set that up to just be disclosed at the last minute . There should of been disclosure on the nature of that loan way ahead of time . I think a lot of loan companies operated in bad faith like that . I’m sure the classic line from the loan people at the time was that it was the only loan that they could qualify for ……well let me be the judge if I want some loan that is different than what was talked about .

I think a lot of foul play was going on because the loan agents got the highest commissions on the most toxic loans . But in a number of instances borrowers didn’t care what type of loan they went on as long as they could leverage and just state a bogus income . When you start making a deal with the Devil you don’t bitch when they cross you at the last minute in loan doc. signing .

Willfull ignorance?

As far as I’m concerned the borrowers should not of found out at the last minute that they were going to have a balloon balance loan

Well, maybe, but as long as they found out when they could still get up and walk away, it’s still 100% their decision, and they’re fault, for having gone ahead with it.

Anyone who took an Option ARM, I/O Loan, etc, should not be eligibale for any sort of cramdown/bailout. They used a very complicated, specialized type of loan as a gamble and took a chance.

I agree with you Reuven ,but still it doesn’t excuse foul play on
the part of loan companies/lenders . It’s a pretty hard lesson to learn on that big of a purchase that Wall Street didn’t care if they financed a fake bubble and set a bunch of people up for a big fall . I don’t have sympathy for liar loan borrowers because
they were gamblers ,but some of the borrowers were honest
and still got screwed by the REIC . I will never forget seeing a story on this blog about how a loan company had a blind person sign loan docs. they didn’t really want and they found out later they had been deceived .

My chemistry teacher made us use a slide rule while walking to and from school up hill backwards in the dark.

No, really, she did. It had more to do with forcing us to estimate the answer to make sure it was reasonable than actually caring that we could use the darn thing. She had a point. It is too easy to mess up the input on a calculator. The next year, they cut her off. It was too hard for people to find one to buy, and she wasn’t allowed to require equipment that wasn’t available for purchase in the area.

I still have the one I used in that class. And the ivory one my grandfather used as a civil engineer. Damn, I miss grandpa.

Yeah they use the calculators instead of doing the math. Then when they’re done with math courses they lose the calculator.

I did a brief stint teaching high school algebra. I wouldn’t allow calculators in class. It made the students stupid. They’d key some numbers in and barf out the answers.

Example: I gave this question on every test. Every single test, and I told them I would do it.

A $900 sofa is on sale for 1/3 off. How much do you now have to pay for the sofa?

(one answer was $4,200!)

I swear to you, at the end of the semester, there were still kids that could not answer the question. Now you expect the to understand mortgage docs?

Polly you would be amazed at how kids can’t estimate worth a darn. When I was a TA I had to grade a freshman chem exam, the first one in the fall. One question asked: “X basketball player on the college team is 6 feet 11 inches tall. How tall is he in meters?”

I think about 15 out of a hundred kids got it right. And the rest of them had answers anything from 1.1 x 10^-21 to 9 x 10^25. Meters. We started giving points if the kid just guesstimated “2-something.” It was that bad.

I hear you - back in the 90’s I used to teach Basic Numeracy to Return to Learning students in the UK.

You should have seen the horror on thier faces when I told them that they weren’t allowed calculators for the first semester.
One particularly - shall we say memorable - student actually engendered a panic attack about that.

But then, I’d do something similar as the above ’sofa’ problem and allow them to use calculators for that one question….

For people with a tenuous grasp of exactly what a ‘fraction’ or a ‘percentage’ is, and what the difference is between them - most of them ended up a little dismayed at how off target their answers were.

After that, most of them grasped that I wasn’t denying them their crutches out of spite and malice.

“She had a point. It is too easy to mess up the input on a calculator.”

Fun fact: pilots still know how to use slide rules, they just don’t all realize that they do; they are taught to use a specialized “round” version called an E6B (military designation, of course). It’s really a log-based slide-rule. You can compute time/distance/fuel-consumption and temp/atmospheric-pressure adjustments on them pretty easily.

Fortunately, in New Future, Glorious Leaders will make all choices for us. That way, no need math; just watch TV and buy dollar special to eat cuz 1 dollar is easy math. Duhhhh…

A $900 sofa is on sale for 1/3 off. How much do you now have to pay for the sofa?

Ooo! Ooo! (Slim waving hand, hoping to be called on.)

That sofa’s on sale for $600. But I’d still wait for a better deal.

Oh, for pity’s sake. The b-ball star’s height is just north of two meters.

How hard was that?

Oxide,

They couldn’t do ((7*12)-1)*0.0254? Really? With a calculator? Oh, that is sad.

Slide rules are for rich folks… Back in the day none of us could afford a slide rule. We used “log tables” published in a small booklet which would cost about 10 cents, and could be used to do pretty much any college course math.

“Fun fact: pilots still know how to use slide rules, they just don’t all realize that they do; they are taught to use a specialized “round” version called an E6B (military designation, of course)”

Immediately after taking your FAA Private Pilot Written Test, the E6-B can then be switched to its true role as a serving tray for sushi/small appetizers. It’s not too great to cook on, as its made of thin aluminum. Around 1996, Garmin made sure no one ever needed to use one again in real flight conditions. Still, it looks super cool in your flight bag. Make sure you do clean it between servings, as your flight bag may start to smell.

“Around 1996, Garmin made sure no one ever needed to use one again in real flight conditions.”

Funny you should say that; I heard a first-hand tale of an ATP (ex-military of course) who whipped his E6B out en route and did his fuel consumption when his glass-cockpit display went Tango Uniform.

Yes, I’m a luddite, but I’d still rather use an E6B than those silly little flight-calculators. And you never need replacement batteries.

I swear to you, at the end of the semester, there were still kids that could not answer the question. Now you expect the to understand mortgage docs?

Well, I have a degree in math, so I can answer your couch question.

But a lot of time, I can’t understand a contract, agreement, or an accounting rule. Which is why I hire an attorney, bookkeeper, or CPA when I need help. Why these “investors” didn’t do the same thing is a mystery to me.

So many of these people believed themselves to be “real-estate investors”. A call to Suze Orman last week featured a teary-eyed couple who went to “real-estate school” and bought, I/O, a condo that they now can’t get rid of. Do you really think a couple that took investing courses and got into a deal to be an investor is deserving of our tax dollars for anything, from special tax treatment to debt forgiveness?

The old miltary and their artillery circular sliderule guys worked pretty good with 6400 mils plotting boards.

Just gimmie the freakin’ Marking Round and I will adjust…

Oh okey , say guys…this might be a relly good time to keep your heads down as I have some artillary guys 105’s on the horn and I don’t do this all of the time.

“Fire for Effect”

You mean “DUCK!” right?

Find a hole or eat dirt fast…High Explosives Quick is… on the way

Polly, the joke wasn’t that they couldn’t do it. We TA’s were rolling because when a kid did it wrong, he obviously didn’t have get the slightest red flag, like: “isn’t a meter sorta like a yard…and 6 feet is a little over two yards…this oughtta be around two meters…”

Nope. Completely over their heads.

And hence policy makers are pulling every possible lever to make houses always go up again…

“Yeah they use the calculators instead of doing the math. Then when they’re done with math courses they lose the calculator.”

But… but… math is hard! And housing only goes up - Suzanne told us that! What time is American Idol on? *droooool*

True story: Years ago, I worked in a food co-op in Pittsburgh. One fine day, one of those true-blue original characters that one only sees in a co-op came in. We got to gabbing, and let me tell you, that guy had lived a life.

Among other things, he’d been a cashier at New York’s Nassau horse racing track. And, right then and there in the middle of the store, he taught me how to make change in my head, just like he used to do at the track.

To this day, I still thank that man.

Ahem…well? You gonna share? (Was it casting out sixes or something like that?)

My sixth grade teacher taught the class how to cast out nines. Great way to check one’s addition and subtraction.

OTOH, what the Nassau guy taught me was how to think on my feet while accurately handling money. Sorry, but it was one of those “ya had to be there” kind of things.

But here’s a tip: When you go to the store and pay with paper money or coin, don’t zone out after you hand it to the cashier. Anticipate what the change will be. That’s what Mr. Nassau was aiming at. Mindfulness with money.

When I worked a cash register, I used to play a little game and see if I could calculate the change faster than the register.

Long story short, no. But I was always right and it meant I could pop the drawer open and make change faster than anyone else. In other works, I was already counting change by the time the register showed the change. I would only look at the display to make sure I was counting the same thing the customer was seeing and to look like I was being conscientious and verifying. (CYA ya know?)

Funny you should mention spreadsheet software!

Yesterday, I was using Excel to do financial projections for my business and personal life. Word of warning, folks, those Excel formulas are easy to screw up. And, when you do, that spreadsheet will still sit there, looking pretty as can be.

Which means that you really need to pay attention to what you’re doing. And check your work. BTW, making rough estimates of what you expect the numbers to be can be very helpful during the checking stage.

Funny, I used to let them cheat. But I told them they should really cheat from someone smarter than they. They still failed.

“I know you believe you understand what you think I said, but I am not sure you realize that what you heard is not what I meant.” - Oscar Wilde

Please eschew obfuscation.

There are known knowns. These are things we know that we know. There are known unknowns. That is to say, there are things that we know we don’t know. But there are also unknown unknowns. There are things we don’t know we don’t know.

–Donald Rumsfeld–

The real problem is when one of the known knowns turns out to be an unknown unknown.

Everybody is testifying to the fact that people are stupid these days ,so should they be protected from loan sharks is the question ? Can you protect someone who is in a frenzy who is gambling on real estate or some other investment ? Seems to me that the industry itself needs to be on the up and up and
not allow a unqualified buyer to be able to get in the game to begin with . You can never change the fact that a person can lose their job or suffer a misfortune ,but you can make sure that they qualify for a loan they are attempting to get . For the Industry to rate these loan bundles as if they were high quality
low risk AAA paper ,by coming up with models that had never been tested really ,(in other words they rode off the past steam of a stable secondary market that was under different rules in the past ),is not excusable ,IMHO.

LOL - thx. I had it on hand from a previous posting.

People just don’t realize just how much vacant inventory is still out there. It’s borne out in many places - these census stats, the foreclosure stats (RealtyTrac etc), the banks’ asset stats (FDIC), etc.

The price bottom we have right now is in no way shape or form based on supply/demand fundamentals, but purely on government pumping and renewed speculation. As such it will be a temporary bottom.

“temporary bottom”

I am almost tempted to suggest the November 2009 used home sales level will prove the highest level for a quite a long time going forward, as Dough-4-dumps burned the chair legs out from under housing demand for the foreseeable future. All the impatient fence sitters were beaten down and herded into the market, and any remaining fence sitters are of the patient and stubborn sort.

“Temporary bottom” is what you get when you sit on the fence too long.

…any remaining fence sitters are of the patient and stubborn sort.
—————–

How true!

Actually in the Roman Empire, it was not uncommon for a slave to be freed and become a prosperous member of society.

Not uncommon? So if you were a captured enemy soldier you were very likely to be made a slave, work a few years, get freed, and become prosperous?

I’d like some statistics on that please. I’ve read a few Rome based novels, but I don’t mistake fiction stories for a statistical sample.

RE freedmen in Roman Empire:

“Another difference between Roman slavery and its more modern variety was manumission – the ability of slaves to be freed. Roman owners freed their slaves in considerable numbers: some freed them outright, while others allowed them to buy their own freedom. The prospect of possible freedom through manumission encouraged most slaves to be obedient and hard working.”

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Freedman

http://www.pbs.org/empires/romans/empire/slaves_freemen.html

Not saying being a slave in Rome was a good thing, only that they had a different approach.

If you walk the Via Appia, there are several tombs/shrines put up by freedmen who became wealthy merchants.

Possibility is not even remotely the same thing as probability. When kids play living in the Middle Ages, everyone is a knight or a lady. No one plays at being a half starved serf.

What perrcentage of enemy soldiers captured on the battlefield by Roman soldiers ended up their lives as wealthy freedmen? How many were dead within a few months? How many ended up doing rather nasty manual labor until the end of their lives? How many were just killed because it was too much bother to take them back to where they wouldn’t be a danger to the troops?

Slavery is a nasty business and the fact that the ones who got treated well were the ones who left stuff around that we can still see today is irrelevant. The ones who weren’t treated well leave no monuments. The idea that a large percentage of the people who were slaves were in the first group is laughable.

Never said slavery wasn’t a nasty business and that the majority weren’t cruelly abused.

Never said a “large percentage” or that possibility was probability, only that it was “not uncommon” and that the Romans had a system that allowed some slaves to be integrated into society as citizens.

“Not uncommon” requires two numbers - the number of times it happened and the number of people who were slaves. If there were 10 slaves then 2 becoming free is “not uncommon.” If there were 10 million slaves then 2 becoming free is uncommon.

And none of that changes the fact that comparing the treatment of Roman citizens to the treatment of enemy combatants taken in the current wars - now that they are not tortured as a matter of policy and not sent to countries that do torture for questioning as a way of getting around torturing ourselves and not sent to secret CIA prisons - is absurd. The number of people under the legal jurisdiction of the US that are considered enemy combatants is miniscule. The article was meant to stir up stupid fears of the president declaring people enemy combatants because of their beliefs or speech.

The whole enemy combatant designation is hugely disturbing. But, as I pointed out in most of my main post, it is weird to be fighting people who have no nation state to declare an end to hostilities on their behalf. The legal system wasn’t set up for it and the rules related to prisoners of war are not set up for it either. Trying to work through the issue is not the same thing as making all US citizens vulnerable to unprovoked arrest at the whim of the president.

On the one hand, I’m not at all sure that slavery was passed on to the children in Rome. OTOH, in the late empire, many small farmers were so poor that they sold themselves into slavery so that they wouldn’t starve.

many small farmers were so poor that they sold themselves into slavery so that they wouldn’t starve.

Easy to do that here too. Just do drugs 3 times in front of a cop.

I did not compare roman slaves to our current enemy combatants. I merely made an comment regarding a difference in Roman society.

I am glad you’ve read some Roman based historical novels, you might also enjoy reading some history.

Romans, after defeating a local population in battle, would often cut off the right arm of ever man, or maybe just a foot. No good for fighting anymore but would still be able to do a little farm work for the new landowners.

Get used to it. You’ve got 7 more years to go.

Dream on.

Ex, Bet you a coke its 3 more years then OUT! Lip

No dreams here, just reality.

And Felix was mah man! (He was the neat freak of the two.)

Morning you’al,
Second pot. It’s been raining steady and
the house walls are starting to creep inward.
Glad I’m here and not in the NE with all that
white stuff that freezes traffic.

People tend to forget how nasty war was in the past.

200 years from now warfare will consist of delivering flowers to the enemy, and hoping they die from a pollen allergy.

(at least from a U.S. policy perspective; assuming the U.S. still exists then)

“We should firebomb their cities like we did in the good old days”

If you really want to win the war…yes we should. Otherwise keep our troops home.

It also explains moral relativism.

A dependency on self-actualization also leads to reliance on self-defense mechanisms in the style of Saul Alinsky. Attack/belittle/drown out. Refuse to hear another’s point of view because it doesn’t conform to what I already believe about myself. It’s easier to call them a “troll”.

I’ll have to pick up “Fourth Turning”. Several people have recommended that book to me. Thanks.

And there it is! A prime example of what I wrote about…you don’t like yourself all of a sudden, so therefore everyone else (in this case, all conservatives) is wrong.

Couldn’t have proved my point better myself, AmazingRuss. Thank you.

Got your litany of Saul Alinsky-type responses ready? Why not go after me on the personal level? You really ought to, you know. Otherwise, you’ll feel crappy all day long. Conversely, think about how smart and actualized you’ll feel afterwards by insulting and attacking me personally!

no that’s not how he rolls.

wait for exeter to reply to you.

Everything a liberal does is rooted in self-actualization and hedonism. If they can’t manage to feel good about themselves, then everyone and everything else is inherently wrong.

This sounds like bullshit. I’ve never met anyone that could be described this way, no matter how much of an ass I thought they were. Real people are complicated. This sounds more like some sort of imaginary cartoon person conjured up to make hating people you don’t know easier.

I don’t watch Fox News. Nor do I support dictators (you do - hence your support of Castro and Chavez). I do, however, heavily endorse filthy air and water. I think breathing in and drinking filth is a good thing for all of us.

Your post has done nothing but support what I wrote. Especially that hedonism bit. Try again.

Who doesn’t remember the Patriot Act? Too bad Obama doesn’t. Funny how you’re mad at Bush, when it’s the man you voted for who has decided to continue it.

Oh, I get it….buyer’s remorse. How depressing it must be for you….your hero is an emperor with no clothes!
No wonder Obama’s poll numbers are slipping among Democrats. He makes you feel like crap.

“You think a public option for health care is a bigger threat to democracy than secret renditions, and torcher, or wars sold to us with lies.”

For US Citizens, yes. Heath Care gives the gubmint power over my life. Now I can be told what to eat, what to drink, what to smoke or chew, what kind of car to drive, what exercises I can do, what leisure activities and can participate in…etc.

Mandatory Heath Care = by, by liberty.

It can also be used, as eudemon mentioned below, as a weapon against “wrong thinking” people.

Measton,

I don’t know here. Basically I’m not sure about the rest of the conservatives but part of what is conservative for me is self reliance and hard work. In raising kids or in social policy I worry about stuff that encourages dependance. My primary problem with a lot of liberals is they are returning to policies that have shown to foster dependance. Not a good direction.

My family is doing a lot of volunteering with the church. We spend a lot of time cooking meals for the homeless. Going to help at orphanages in Mexico, with some personal risk due to the security situation. We give money and time every week. I would much prefer to give money and time that way than through government aid. Based on cost of revenue and effectiveness, I’d guess the 12K per year or so I donate would be as good as 24K per the government. Probably more so. How about a tax credit to encourage this, beyond just a deduction?

And yes, we also spend time preaching the good book. In addition we are active in our public school and volunteer time. Lots of good stuff in there to take to heart.

In enviromental concerns, we drive a hybrid. We also have a short commute to work. I think some of the enviromental regulations are excessivly complicated and possibly counter productive. Do you think ethanol makes sense as a gas additive? How about all the drive by the government for MTBE? Both Bad news.

Further all the global warming stuff has just been a bunch of BS. Frankly, you can see what many of us were talking about for a long time. The old data is not clear. Not even close. It is borne out by the emails. The scientists are trying to stay on message instead of letting the data speak for itself. The more recent models also failed to predict anything useful. The recent cooling trend completely supprised the modeling community. From what we have seen, their models of very predictive of the past. Again, not a useful concept. Further they still have no idea what to do about cloud formation and the most dominant greenhouse gas, by a factor of 20x, water.

So, us conservatives that are concerned about money flowing out to oil states are all for conservation or resources. We’d like to point out that it would be silly to assume that AGW is a major problem at this point. In fact it looks like a non-issue.

Looking at oil use, the big drivers are transportation and home heating. So, we could make a big drive to develop natural gas resources and nuclear power. I’d guess a fairly happy compromise would be tword nuclear, right?

So for forward looking stuff we might be able to agree with:

Stimulis money to reduce oil consumption for home heating. Use tword nuclear electric generation. At least some effort to using domestic sources here.

Increase investment in LED light replacement of incandescant and florescent lighting. Not to many chances to get a 90% reduction in useage. That is what you get from the LED lights.

Increased investment in electric rail infastructure to ease use of truck based shipments.

High MPG vehicle tax credits along with a two tier gas tax. Have first x gallons with zero tax and a dollar per gallon after that. Additional credit for hybrids because that takes up a lot of the problem in cities. Also reduces polution. I’d also support a tax credit for vehicle improvements too.

How about some incentives for concentration as well? If we can get people to live closer in, that would cut resource consumption too.

Tax credits for charitable deductions. Instead of ordinary deduction how about making it a tax credit.

Personally, I think Medicaid/Medicare is a better thing to reform than insurance. I know the billions that get syphoned off there but it would be better to attack the majority of the problem in the government entitlement program.

My other thought is that as the US conserves on resources the hostility from the rest of the world will ebb substantially. We will not be seen as just driven by oil lust. And I know plenty of liberals driving SUVs too. Weird planet eh?

Basically I’m not sure about the rest of the conservatives but part of what is conservative for me is self reliance and hard work.

Now, that is conservatism in the finest sense of the word!

“For US Citizens, yes. Heath Care gives the gubmint power over my life.”

Um NO, a public option is exactly that an option, even socialized medicine in other countries often allows you to buy private insurance if you want more.
Note secret renditions, and jailing US citizens without giving them a trial and access to a lawyer, is the ultimate control over citizens. Well except for killing them on the street.

“Now I can be told what to eat, what to drink, what to smoke or chew, what kind of car to drive, what exercises I can do, what leisure activities and can participate in…etc.”

1. Pulbic option is not mandatory.
2. I’m against mandating health insurance.
3. Medicare which is socialized medicine in no way controls what people drink, smoke, chew, or what car they drive. Why would public option be any different? PS I’m for legalizing many drugs. Letting people drive w/o a seat belt or helmet, etc,but I’d tax those activities to pay for their detrimental costs, and to discourage use, and pay for public service announcements that discourage use and publicize damaging effects.

James I agree with almost everything you said. Most of my hostility is directed at eumond, you can read his start of this thread.

As far as fostering dependence.
1. I’m anti welfare, and I’d roll back unemployment. I’d replace them with a jobs program several days per week and include a a downward tapering salary/job quality to encourage looking for another job. There are a ton of jobs that aren’t economical that we could pay the unemployed to do that would benefit the country. If no job could be created then they could hike stairs or ride a stationary or walk around the track or separate dark buttons from white. No free money.

I’m pro social security as an insurance program for people that have worked during their life. It’s an insurance plan that should cover basic food and shelter only. There are many who are counting on pensions, housing, or 401k’s that have been devistated by the current events. Despite being honest and working hard. They shouldn’t be left to die on the street.

I’m pro public option, a public plan that offers only the basics based on cost benefit analysis. If you want more then you need to pay for private insurance. This is the way many countries with socialized medicine operate. I had a Dutch girlfriend who’s father worked in a public clinic and had his own private clinic for insured patients. Health care is already rationed but in the worst most hapazard profit driven way possible.

It can also be used, as eudemon mentioned below, as a weapon against “wrong thinking” people.

Give me one example of Medicare or the VA hospital being used as a weopon against wrong thinking people. Just one??? You watch these protesters equating health care to Nazi’s it’s f’n amazing. Insurance company control is A OK though.

We give…..

“But when you give to the needy, do not let your left hand know what your right hand is doing, so that your giving may be in secret. Then your Father, who sees what is done in secret, will reward you.”
Matthew: (6:3-4).

“But when you give to the needy, do not let your left hand know what your right hand is doing, so that your giving may be in secret. Then your Father, who sees what is done in secret, will reward you.”
Matthew: (6:3-4).

Sounds like where I went to church. They were big on the Book of Matthew.

Measton,

I’ve also floated this idea as well. Instead of unemployment, stick people in the job bank and have them do something. Any kind of productivity rather than stagnation. I’d be careful that it isn’t full time so they have ample opporitunity to search out other work.

About leaving people to die on the street: there needs to be give and take in the system. It is really bad to cultivate dependancy. People feel worthless in that system. Also, you don’t want to encourage people to be unprepared or take stupid risks. Some of these guys are going to need to work till they are 70. We also shouldn’t be giving them luxury living. You might need to live in dormitory style housing with a couple rormmate.

There aren’t too many people that are so helpless that they require continual care and can’t contribute. I worked with mentally challenged or retarded (or what ever the term is these days) and they all wanted to contribute. While they weren’t very capable, we’d have them stuff bags with silverware and give them paychecks. That gave them a heck of a lot more meaning in their lives than most of the other stuff they did. Even a lot of old people are still capable of doing things like childcare, tutoring exc.

As far as social securtiy and many of the pension plans out there. Well, they need to promise to give back only what you put into them. You can have some emergency funds for crisis cases (disabled, orphans).

I really have not thought about public option all that much. Not particularly favorable to the idea. I don’t see why people can’t start a non-profit with pricing agreements with hospitals now.

Unless the government is subsidizing care with tax dollars, I’m not sure how this will work out. Basically insurance guys do the math and determine the probability of ailments in a population. Then spread the cost out over a larger population. They also serve to negotitate with hospitals on costs. Then take a cut from the revenue.

When you look at what they get as a percentage it isn’t that high. Probably you could squeeze them a bit but still not much blood in that turnip. A low yield is a low yeild.

Now medicare/medicaid is a fricking mess. That needs to be rethought and price controls used.

As far as it goes, I’m proposing to our corporate guys that we work a reduced work week, allowing for 1 hr per day at the gym. Hopefully that will result in lower healthcare costs. Also floating other ideas like paying healthy employee bonuses for people that are a healthy weight and don’t smoke. Probably get laughed out of the room but you have to try something. Could a similar thing be available in considering taxes too? That would be great.

james, Measton,

Take it from me jobs are not the problem, its trying to match the person with something close to whats on the resume.

What good is training me to be a home health aide or a security guard when no one will hire you because of all the past good well paying jobs i’ve had.

OhbaHmas stimlus plan has 2500 education training grants but sadly they are not for smart people (aka white) get your GED drive a truck for fresh direct…work as a ramp agent loading baggage. Or at a call center…and Nothing for people that want to upgrade their computer skills

You should check out these programs no one on this board would qualify…we are all too smart.

————————–
I’ve also floated this idea as well. Instead of unemployment, stick people in the job bank and have them do something. Any kind of productivity rather than stagnation. I’d be careful that it isn’t full time so they have ample opporitunity to search out other work.

Amen.

As a self educated student of the holocaust, I, unfortunately, can not agree more.

It’s very scary.

The public health care option is just the ticket to siphon-off undesirables, political and otherwise. Who says a socialist/fascist/communist government worker won’t step in to decide what ailment you are suffering? You went in for a broken arm and exited tagged a psychotic. All because you voted for Barack Obama, for example, rather than Ben Jones.

(Don’t laugh, folks - Miranda rights are being extended to those who shoot at your fellow citizens. I see very little difference between that and letting others determine the outcome of your life via the “public option”).

Marry government health care with the Patriot Act and the ongoing destruction of the Constitution, and you have real powderkeg potential.

I’m amazed at the extent to which even the very bright haven’t started to connect the dots of what the possible outcomes might be.

“It’s very scary.”

Of course it is! A “conservative” always needs a hobgoblin to fear.

How’s your $100,000+ annual income squaring with your comments a week or so ago about “self-interest”?

Have you resolved the self-actualization versus hedonism issue raised by that question? Apparently not, as you’ve failed to answer the question.

Your strong, hedonistic tendencies (make lots of money, dictate to others how they should live their lives) don’t exactly line up to sweetly with who you think you really are, do they?

Too bad you’re not the limosine liberal you apparently covet to be. If you were, you’d be able to sate the unchecked hedonism that already filters through your veins. Alas, your $8,000K+ monthly income isn’t enough to qualify.

You should have listened to your wife’s suggestions. You didn’t, and now you’re in a fine mess.

Stuck in Rubeville, New England.

Scared and obsessed.

The public health care option is just the ticket to siphon-off undesirables, political and otherwise. Who says a socialist/fascist/communist government worker won’t step in to decide what ailment you are suffering? You went in for a broken arm and exited tagged a psychotic. All because you voted for Barack Obama, for example, rather than Ben Jones.

You are a nut job.
Point to one case of this happening in medicare, va system Europe or Canada. You are insane. You are fine with handing these decisions over to a corporate oligarchy which has little in the way of open books or accountability but you believe a public health care option will result in a gov declaring you insane. We don’t need the gov to declare you insane your post speaks for itself.

Again secret renditions and torcher are OK but a public health care option is the next step to a 2nd Hitler.

??????????????????????

Thanks for the compliment. If I’m insane, so be it.

In any event, let’s hope I’m wrong.

So I wrote this long drawn out response that you will nitpick. Basically we are going to disagree. You can skip top the bottom.

I’m saying alarmist BS ought to stop. The disgraced scientists should resign and move on to other fields for the good of climate science as a whole. I suggest suicide for them but can’t as a Christian. Perhaps force them to work as night managers at Wendy’s.

BTW, I am not saying that AGW is not happening.

I’m not saying not to study it.

I AM SAYING the dire predictions of the models are not worth anything. They are unproven at best and not actionable.

Heck, there has even been a warming trend! Wow. Really. I’d bet its been since 1970 or do you deny that temperatures were warmer in the late 30s? Or do you just adjust the temps downward like they do?

Your own statements above indicate the dominant greenhouse gas, water, is not well understood. It isn’t clear how the feedback would function either. Basically you get cooling effects from additional clouds but additional greenhouse effect. My guess is that acts as a buffer. That is you get a few less extreems in temperature. Water is like the ultimate widebased absorber for EM radiation. Additonaly, if you get additional mositure resulting in snow, you might end up with substantial cooling due to increased radiation reflection. Will you get postive feedback or more clouds. If you select positive feedback then it seems like trouble, if not than you could dump a lot of C02 with no effect.

If you make a model of somethings behavior it needs to be predictive of the future or it isn’t worth doing anything about. These guys producing models, and there are many, have to fix it a some point then let it go for a long while and see how it tracks. Otherwise you are just fooling yourself about understanding the system you are modeling. Either it lacks sufficient detail or it has incorrect assumptions or driving functions.

Previously published models and many of your alarmist buddies have been saying we are at a tipping point. Well, those models in no way indicated we might have two years of temperature decreases in a row. As a trend it would be short term cooling and it doesn’ match with theory.

Not to mention you can look at the models for temperature, (on wiki) and see they don’t show anykind of sharp, multi year now, two degree downward jumps in temp. i.e. the models are probably junk. Course those models are ancient, being from 99. I’m sure the new models next year will explain everything!

Further I don’t think air temperature drives the ocean temperature. The ocean has a huge absorption spectrum and a huge thermal mass. Not to mention convection currents and other nifty effects. Primarily I’d expect the water temperatures to drift around with solar effects with some lag due to the ocean buffering everything.

Hence complaints that the theory didn’t take into account effects like El Nino or La Nina and didn’t predict them. Those are major climate effects. Again not predicted.

Further looking at the graph, it’s not clear you’d want to do anything now either. Basically you are talking about 1C warming in 2050. Ah, can you imagine what technology changes will have happened by then? It is going to be very different and if the peak oil people are correct, we will be driving micronuclear cars then anyway.

In summary: there isn’t anything actionable. There isn’t a desperate need to do something as stupid as force people to switch to other types of fuel due to AGW. No EVIDENCE. Just a few highly suspect models from highly suspect scientists that should be out of their jobs. Un eth i cal.

Goodluck. Too hard to discuss this topic on here.

Basically, as I mentioned to Measton, I’ve got plenty of other reasons to cut back oil useage. And we are both fine with nuclear. It is quite cheap and in line with coal.

New Hope and Lambertville were ideally situated for a turnaround: roughly half way between PHL and NYC.

Sister in law is in Ypsilante Michigan. It could easily turn into a nice little artist type town along with having some good industrial nearby.

Ypsi’s also quite close to Ann Arbor.

IIRC, it’s about 10 miles away, and once after missing the final Ann Arbor bus, I walked that distance with a friend. One of my best-ever college memories. We walked and sang songs for three hours.

Those were the days.

$2.9 million for 3/4ths of an acre? Wow.

$2.9 million for 3/4ths of an acre? Wow.

Think of it as the celebrity equivalent of “$5 for a cup of coffee??!!”. It’s all relative.

But the VIEW elanor The VIEW its priceless easily worth $5 million alone..
————–
$2.9 million for 3/4ths of an acre? Wow.

The view from that infinity pool patio is pretty amazing.

They say I’m crazy but I have a good time…

Joe. Fricking. Walsh.

I’m mulling over the idea of his name being mentioned in the same breath as Sonny Bono’s song-bleating wife; I’m going to have a good cry now.

lol

LOL… You guys are funny.

I’m not even taking a position on the global-warming debate. I honestly don’t know the science well enough to have an informed opinion, so I advocate neither position.

But I do argue strenuously that CO2 is not pollution. Pollution is something that is actually bad for you if you breathe/eat/drink/bathe in it. CO2 is none of the above.

And saying that too much CO2 is bad for the plants is bunk. There is a strong fossil record documenting that plants actually _thrived_ during periods of much higher CO2 concentrations.

Environmental activists used to say that hydrogen fuel cells were the future, because they put out zero pollution; their only by-products are water and CO2, both of which are harmless. Now in the course of a few years, we suddenly we’ve decided that CO2 is bad for us?

Adobe Creative Suite, Firefox, Thunderbird, and TopStyle, a Web Standards-based XHTML/CSS editor.

There are Firefox/Thunderbird builds for Ubuntu/Linux.
Also,TopStyle functinality can probably be replicated by many apps - Eclipse with the proper plugin.

As far as Adobe stuff - other than a 32/64 bit build of flash they have not ported much of their stuff over. However, an XP instance running in a VM would be fine or even using tool like Wine or Crossover you might be able to run the tool natively.

IMO, Ubuntu is read right now as a replacement for Windows. We have been doing it the past couple years.

The “slow burn” is obviously better for state governments with constitutional requirements for a balanced budget. It takes a while to slow down spending for anything as large as a state government. They have contracts and obligations in place. It takes a while to adjust.

I think the question is much more difficult if you want to discuss the general economy. If you assume that the places that misallocated their capital to overpriced real estate are so important that the economy can’t handle them being crippled, then maybe letting future investors take up the slack voluntarily is a help. But there sure are better uses for some of that capital even today, and once real estate actually gets back to normal, I would think there would be better uses for all of that capital and more.

I don’t have the math or the knowledge to analyze that one.

“How do you ‘know’ the slow burn is better?”

Interesting word, the word “know”; Who really knows anything?

But in my OPINION a slow burn is better because the disruption to the economy happens gradually rather than with a sudden shock. We had a hint of what a sudden shock might look like last year when Lehman was allowed to fail.

As slow burn allows the banks to recapitalize themselves, to refund their depleted balance sheets, even sell more shares to hopeful investors. A good thing, IMO, since banks are financial transaction clearing entities. Without a transaction clearing house transactions won’t happen and the global economy will freeze up.

“Who really knows anything?”

God. Or for atheists, nobody.

It takes a while to slow down spending for anything as large as a state government.

I see that in and of itself a big problem. Such long-term contracts based on assumption of bad fundamentals (i.e. assumptions of continual tax base growth) are bad, and we need to get out of that mindset. There needs to be more flexibility with these contracts.

And it’s not just contracts. It’s the base assumption of continual growth that’s the problem. See the Federal employees’ 2% pay raises across the board this year, as a base, for example. That wasn’t contractually bound - it was stupid, and it was wrong. I see the same thing locally. All the local government workers raise absolute cain if their salaries are cut, or if there are any significant layoffs; meanwhile the private sector is getting absolutely hammered.

combotechie,

I was lambasted just a few days ago for making a similar comment. Everyone was egging me on to “Embrace the Race to the Bottom”.

Bad analogies aside, no one wants Reform more than myself. And yes, I’d preferred to have seen it ‘yesterday’ but you’re absolutely right, let’s not allow our lust to see blood in the streets rule us by emotion?

“Who really knows anything?”

And now for a humorous answer:

Eddie. (rimshot)

Had a muni official tell me yesterday they couldn’t pay their entire bill to us because their retail development fell off a cliff the last 2 years. Permits down to zilch.

Is that any way to run a government?

Montana:

same here in NYC a neighbor who works for the city told me she is bored at work listens to her ipod all day… she authorizes permits for pest control and demolitions of buildings and permits are down 70% from 2years ago..slowest its ever been in her 16 years there.

combo wrote:

But in my OPINION a slow burn is better because the disruption to the economy happens gradually rather than with a sudden shock. We had a hint of what a sudden shock might look like last year when Lehman was allowed to fail.
————————

But from **my** perspective, things were really looking like they were about to get better after Lehman failed. Yes, we needed the govt/Fed to backstop the FDIC, SIPC, and PBGC (IMHO), but if everything else were allowed to fail, then we could be working on a **real** recovery by now, IMHO.

We need to repudiate all of our debt, and we need to get asset prices down to a sustainable level. The longer they stretch this out, the longer we are going to have to deal with unemployment. It’s unemployment that’s the real killer. People can handle it for 6-12 months, if necessary, but they can’t handle it for 6-12 years (or more).

Best Wishes,

Good for you. After 25 years in (1) place, a great many were simply unable ‘to’ move? Just a bit entrenched.

It could -not- have been easy! Btw, isn’t the very area you describe where all the HEDGE fund mgrs. were at!?

DinOR

“Good for you. After 25 years in (1) place, a great many were simply unable ‘to’ move? Just a bit entrenched.

It could -not- have been easy! Btw, isn’t the very area you describe where all the HEDGE fund mgrs. were at!?”

My husband and I have been self employed our entire life and have always saved, saved and then saved some more. We lived way below our means for decades. So, we never felt entrenched, we acutally always felt like “free spirits”. Living debt free and truely taking care of ones financial future lies in one’s discipline:” LIVE BELOW YOUR MEANS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

I know many people who feel “entrenched” and I have to say they’re not happy about it. But, these are the same people that spent like kings and then found themselves in over their heads. These same people use to rag on us for not spending any money and now these same people ask us “How is it that you can be retired at 50?” That’s right 50.

As to the HEDGE fund mgrs, I don’t know about that. I think most of those crooks, I mean Hedge fund mgrs, were mostly concentrated in the Fairfield county area; Greenwich, Stamford, New Cannan, etc.

Most of my peers were self employed artist types; woodworkers, sculpultors, and small business owners. Lots of old money in Lyme. The other towns actually got a huge boost from “Pfizers” which opened a new research facitilty in New London, CT. However, Pfizer has recently annouced they are closing this facility. So, the “Great downward Sprial” continues.

“combo - are you seriously suggesting that throwing good money after bad is good for the economy, as a principle?”

It depends on whose money it is. If it is public money then the answer is no. If it is private money then the answer is yes.

I would then very vehemently disagree. Misallocation of resources (primarily private) is precisely what got us into this mess. Allocation of resources in their proper places will get us out. And that includes not putting any money into real estate right now - regardless of whether it’s public or private. We still have a huge over-abundance of existing unused real estate.

“Allocation of resources in their proper places will get us out.”

Totally agree. Where we disagree is what the proper places for these resources are.

My view is a house (and thus a neighborhood) is worth much more if it is occupied than if it is left vacant. The best way to get and keep the house occupied is to have somebody buy it and live in it.

Many -maybe most - houses are financially underwater. The logical thing for underwater homebuyers to do is to walk away. But if enough of them walk away then the economy is screwed. Better to keep up the illusion that the value of the house is there or is about to come back.

“Misallocation of resources (primarily private) is precisely what got us into this mess.”

I question the ’slow burn is better’ hypothesis for the very same reason. It seems like the slower the crash, the longer people will keep making dumb decisions based on bubble era thinking that has not yet died off. A quick crash that nobody could possibly miss would seem like a more effective way to kill off bubble-era thinking before a massive confederacy of dunces make a critical mass of bad individual decisions sufficient to collectively bankrupt the country. (I admit it may already be way too late, but why continue shooting one’s self in the foot if you have the option to stop now?)

I see it like drug addiction (not talking lesser things like pot, or mild addictions - I’m talking hardcore addictions to crack or whatever). It’s been shown time and again that you can’t slowly come off of it. You have to quite cold turkey. That process is extremely painful, but it’s what’s necessary to get the job done.

The pain itself is the key teaching tool. When you realize just how hard it is to quit - you never want to touch the stuff again, because you never want to go through that pain again.

(mind you I’m not speaking from personal experience, just observation)

If it were a lot easier to quit drugs, then a lot more people would do drugs. Same principle applies with bubbles and debt. If the pain of the crash isn’t bad enough - then people will continue to do things that lead to future crashes, each one worse than the last.

As pure conjecture on my part - I think that we could have easily been set up in the 1950’s for this housing bubble to have happened then. The economy was booming, housing prices were going up, etc. One thing stopped them - most of the people buying houses in the 1950’s still had their parents around to tell them just how bad the great depression was, and how bad it was to go deep into debt, and to assume that the good times will always be there. So the homebuyers in the 1950’s held back some. Despite the economic boom, including a housing boom - the savings rate then was very high.

Pretty much all the depression generation is gone now, so there’s no one left from whom to learn that lesson. We would have been better served to relearn it with another depression. As it is now - we haven’t really learned that lesson, and I fear we’re simply going to get to a point of no return with the next bubble and crash - something far worse than the Great Depression, if you can imagine that.

My view is a house (and thus a neighborhood) is worth much more if it is occupied than if it is left vacant. The best way to get and keep the house occupied is to have somebody buy it and live in it.

You’re ignoring (or discounting) the opportunity costs though of the effort spent to maintain/furnish/etc. each house. If instead the given family lived in an apartment, a multi-family house, etc. then they have more time and money to allocate to other things that are more productive; things that they would otherwise buy/produce instead if they weren’t induced otherwise by tax credits. Maybe a new car to replace their clunker instead of a house, or better clothes, or better food, or whatever.

Also keep in mind that much of these atificial stimulii aren’t actually helping to make the homes more occupied than they otherwise would be. Speculation is back on the upswing again - much of the stimulii is just going to increase speculation-driven prices; it’s not all helping people move into homes that otherwise wouldn’t have their own. And much of the stimulation is also going towards creation of *new* homes, which only adds to the unoccupied-homes problem, not diminish it, because many of these homes remain unoccupied after they’re built (despite rules saying that this shouldn’t be done; see countless examples of fraud).

“As it is now - we haven’t really learned that lesson, and I fear we’re simply going to get to a point of no return with the next bubble and crash”

packman, I strongly agree with you on this point. Without the pain-as-instructor, we will be back for another round of bubbles.

Knowing this, my goal for investing over the couple of decades should be to watch for credit-standards to loosen, buy as much as I can carry (ideally in an LLC/corp, and without personal liability), leverage to the hilt, and try to time the market top.

Heads I win, tails they lose!

Unfortunately the people most in a position to take advantage of such opportunity have the initials “P.T.B.”, not “P.I.C.”. It’s worth a shot though, if you can somehow ride their coattails.

(e.g. health care looks like a good bet right now, as does “green energy”)

Comment by combotechie
2009-12-22 09:41:13
“Allocation of resources in their proper places will get us out.”

Many -maybe most - houses are financially underwater. The logical thing for underwater homebuyers to do is to walk away. But if enough of them walk away then the economy is screwed. Better to keep up the illusion that the value of the house is there or is about to come back.
———————-

Packman basically said what I was going to say, but just wanted to add that a foreclosed home is NOT an empty home unless they are trying to keep prices artificially inflated. We NEED lower housing prices because U.S. citizens are now competing with third-world workers, and our costs of living have to come down to meet our new incomes.

If we spend half on housing costs of what we were spending at the peak, then we will have much more money left to allocate toward savings and other, far more productive parts of the economy.

The sign-twirlers would have very tired arms.

…and intend to rent the houses out until prices rise…

They may find that those price increases will be a while in coming. In the meantime, they’ll find out that being a landlord isn’t all it’s cracked up to be. Especially when the tenants figure out that the landlord is rich, so screw ‘im, we’re busting this house apart.

Same here, Pondering. Big time.

I’d rather have both.

Every once in a while, we hear about house fires caused by that quaint old custom of lighting a candle for this, that, or the other thing.

Generally idiots who do stupid things, like leave them burning when they’re not home, don’t have smoke detectors, etc.

Just because people die in car accidents, drownings, electrocutions, and bicycle wrecks doesn’t keep me from driving, swimming, using electricity, or riding a bike.

Problem with flashlights is that batteries go dead - even when they’re not used. 40 hours of good light from a flashlight will generally cost you about $20-30 or so; from a candle about $2. So they’re a lot more cost effective to stockpile for long-term power outages.

Yeah, when I light the candles in my house I feel downright Dangerous! small pleasures…

For a hint of how this could be done, google up “federal income tax receipts”.

For a hint of how this could be done, google up “federal income tax receipts”.

yea not bad why not Social security numbers ? are there that many people who don’t pay taxes and don’t have SSN out there ?

Exactly. You weigh the risk of losing customers with the risk of maintaining income.

You could also drop your price and risk improving traffic using volume to offset lost business during a bad economy, but the thought is that you then position yourself as “discount” and lose image status.

Also, poor people don’t tip worth a damn.

Wrong. Regardless of whether their costs have gone up, the only question they need to answer is, “Will I make more or less in variable profits if I raise prices.”

P.S. Do you per chance manage a hair salon?

I hate to have my hair cut.

but,but,but…I thought the real “profit” in a barbershop was the “eclectic” jib-jab ping-pong “colorful” conversations?

Damn, why is it ALWAYS about money…

Sorry to suggest making money might be more important to hair salons than keeping a lively conversation going. But if you price out all your customers, who will carry up the other end of the conversation? It’s not much fun whiling away your days talking into the mirrors…

“It’s not much fun whiling away your days talking into the mirrors…”

Geez, Mr. Bear I think you can find this on Netflix:

The Hairdresser’s Husband

If that doesn’t bring a fpss response, I’m gonna start believing that fpss & Olygal eloped.

Riiight. And the professor is gay…gotta love
this list.

Yeah, sure — and I am eloping to Mexico City tomorrow…

“If that doesn’t bring a fpss response, I’m gonna start believing that fpss & Olygal eloped.”

Eloped or not, if Olgal doesn’t make a HBB appearance soon, I’m calling the State Police and filing an overdue Missing Pixie Report !

This past weekend, I was riding the ole bicycle through the Sam Hughes neighborhood. This is one of Tucson’s prestige nabes, and it’s just east of the University of Arizona.

What did I spy but a hand-lettered yard sale sign for furniture used in a home staging. So, I pedaled over to take a look-see.

What a bunch of pretentious, overwrought furniture! It looked like Early American Bordello, if you ask me.

I turned the bike around and rode away before that furniture could infect me.

Oh, BTW, the furniture came out of a house that’s been on the market for forever and a day. Still had a “for sale” sign out front.

Tucson’s Sam Hughes neighborhood is my second option if San Luis Obispo, CA doesn’t work out. Unfortunately it’s still fantasy prices in Sam Hughes, IMHO, a long way to the bottom.

Read the cover story in December’s “The Atlantic” if you want to know what caused the bubble

The Atlantic, December 2009

Greed is the other side of the coin of poverty / down and outness/ being marinalized. Trying to outwit every other sorry fellow human for one’s own gain just seems the modus operandi of the whole society. It is unbelievable that it’s not seen. The fruit of one’s hard labor brings success? Hahaha. You made me rich, here’s your pink slip.

I read The Atlantic story. And I couldn’t help but think of my church upbringing. Where every service included the words, “It is better to give than receive.” And where we were urged to let our light so shine before all men that they may see our good works and glorify our Father, who is in heaven.

It seems there are lots of followers of some other Jesus out there, doesn’t it?

Then again, there isn’t much support in the Gospels for the Crusades or 30 years war, either.

“…If people would donate money to his ministry, a “seed” offered to God, he’d say, then God would multiply it a hundredfold. Eventually, Roberts retreated into a life that revolved around private jets and country clubs.”

How is it that NONE of these “TrueBeliever’s™” never wind up giving a sermon wearing a pair of “name-brand” Gandhi flip-flops?

+1

That’s what we’re hoping for, too. Got out of our inflation hedges (mostly FCs and foreign bonds) in November. We are sitting 100% in cash (with the exception of some smallish amounts in retirement accounts), so are very vulnerable to any inflationary events right now. It’s scary, but everything went crazy again (stocks, gold, etc.), and I’m not comfortable staying in a position that everyone else is talking about.

Health care is not “free” - we pay for it via taxes. Not all our health care is “free” - prescription drugs are not covered for example. I have Blue Cross through work for things that aren’t covered by Canadian Medicare - it’s a long list.

Our system is pretty good - but it doesn’t have a lot of flexibility, and there’s not much margin when resources are not available for whatever reason.

I laugh when I read the doctor’s column in the paper and he’s advising people who are unhappy with their doctor to go to another one or to get a second opinion or a third one. With a 6000 person waiting list I’m not going to be changing doctors until forced to - which might happen in the near future as my doc is nearing retirement age - he’s older than me.

Resource problems - I’m over 55 and there’s a family history of colon cancer, so I asked the doc about having a colonoscopy - he just laughed - we have 3 doctors who do them - one ironically has colon cancer and is out of commission, another is trying to retire and is winding down his workload, which means the third guy is handling emergency only stuff. So much for that preventative medicine they talk about.

I’ll ask again this year - there’s supposed to be a new specialist in town.

When my mother had cataracts, she waited over a year for surgery, since one of doctors that do them was off sick so they were only doing the worst cases. Since my mother hadn’t gone totally blind she had to wait. She couldn’t read etc but she could see enough to stumble around the house.

It’s “free” so we shouldn’t complain.

One good thing they’ve done here is that they set up an Urgent care centre in one hospital in town, while the other one has a full ER. We had a nurse-practitioner in our Toastmasters club and she did a speech advising that we should go to the urgent care for most of the things we would normally go to the ER for (except for cardiac stuff and other life threatening stuff). I used it when my son fell down the stairs and banged up his knee and shoulder. Much shorter wait than going to ER where it would have 6 or 8 hours…

12. The recognition that, in many instances, the quality of care that one can get from a physician assistant or nurse practitioner is equal or better than what can get from a primary care physician.

4. Lack of innovation on new drugs and so on.
5. Lack of innovation on new and improved medical devices and such.
———————

Just FYI, but the great majority of **useful** research is publicly funded through the NIH or public universities or public grants. It’s only when something looks **profitable** (which is often different from “useful” and “good for the public”) will the private sector step in.

Traffic (2000)

That was a good movie.

Do Japanese workers complain endlessly about the offshoring of their jobs to the United States?

Good question.

There’s a difference though, between Japanese outsourcing and American. AFAIK, the bulk (or maybe all?) of Japanese jobs outsourced to the U.S. are for the purpose of producing products sold in the U.S.

U.S.’s outsourcing of jobs to China, Mexico, etc. however isn’t to produce products to the sell there - rather those products are just shipped back to the U.S. (for the most part).

This also happens to be China’s Achilles Heel.

They are singularly ill-equipped to retool to what Chinese or Indian or Brazilian consumers desire.

I wish I knew more about “reverse” offshoring, but, alas, I’m quite ignorant. Back in the day, I knew a fair amount about maquiladoras (I represented a company who helped establish them along the Rio Grande), but that’s 20-year-old water under the bridge.

As far as “reverse” offshoring goes, I’m betting on Brazil, and have for 4-5 years now. It’s obvious to me that they are the country to watch, not China or India. Few are aware of Brazilians’ expanding purchases of interests in the U.S. and elsewhere.

What I don’t understand about Brazil is their quasi-capitalistic approach (the ties among their private/government entities is a tad bizarre. Just when I think I understand something, I discover I don’t know sh*t).

On the plus side, Brazil has 200 million people, an eager work force, natural resources up the ying-yang (vast, aerable land; water; minerals), energy independence, an improving financial structure, continental dominance and an outward-looking view of the world. And, their time zones nearly match our own (don’t underestimate the value of that).

In short, there’s no reason they can’t become the future’s most nimble up-and-comer.

I like nimble. A lot.

Time to learn Portuguese.

Not this time. AZ is in a world of hurt. I think those deportations will actually happen.

And you may be amazed to learn that there are a number of AZ residents of Mexican descent who are livid about illegal immigration. Heck, they pay taxes to cover the costs as much as the rest of us do.

Same here in Texas. The legal immigrants aren’t very fond of illegals either.

Likewise in California.

They are the most affected by illegal immigration because the illegals are competing directly with the legal Latino immigrants/decendents. They lower their wages and move into their neighborhoods because they feel more comfortable linguistically and culturally…and lower their property values because they crowd 25 people into a 3-bedroom house and drink beer on the front lawn (actually, dirt).

Talk to me in 2013 and report back how this “infestor” thinks.

Opportunity cost is so effin’ neglected it’s outright criminal!