Bits Bucket For December 23, 2009
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Palm Beach Mall (Downtown at the Gardens) sold for ~40M dollars, last sale 200M. And frankly, 40M is still probably too much, the simple problem isn’t that it’s not a nice building, or that it’s “laid out wrong” (and the 30 yo geniuses who bought it contend), it’s that there is WAY too much retail, and not nearly enough people to fill it all in S. FL. Palm Beach Gardens is particularly bad (there were 4 new malls built within 5 years of one another within 3 miles), but this trend continues up and down the FL coast.
Restruaunts going out of business. Duh, there’s WAY too much competiiton. Sure, you’re place is nice, but there’s 300 other places within 1 mile of here, and there are only 3000 people eating out every night. You do the math.
The simple fact is, much like the housing that was built all over this state, there might not be any number that make these places work. Until the population density rises dramatically, there’s just not enough people to keep all these stores/malls in business.
And, DownTown (subject of the article), is an outdoor mall. In FL? Are they nuts? Putting an outdoor (read: Heatstroke 6-8 months of the year) mall (with all the same types of stores) next to a “destination” mall is a stupid idea. It’s like building another football stadium next to the local pro field and playing there on Sunday afternoons; wondering why nobody comes. You can compliment the football stadium (sell hot dogs/beer, etc), but you can’t really compete with it. That’s exactly what all these projects tried to do, compete with the pro team on the block!
“The simple fact is, much like the housing that was built all over this state, there might not be any number that make these places work. Until the population density rises dramatically, there’s just not enough people to keep all these stores/malls in business.”
Most amazingly, the same statements pretty much apply to sunny California without modification!
Malls to me seem so passé anyway. I would think most malls are being done in by the likes of Amazon and Target, but what do I know? Also, I would think the trend for 20 and 20 somethings would be entertainment rather than shopping, along the lines of an Irvine Spectrum, but again, I’m no mall genius.
That’s why marketers have coined the term “shoppertainment”. Keeping people amused with cooking demonstrations, book signings and similar, as well as malls with cinemas and more restaurants. The idea is to get you in the shopping area and keep you there longer so you’ll spend. The mall has replaced the town square as a place to hang out.
Open air type malls are all the rage in Texas now and seem to be doing good. I think the days of people spending 8 hours shopping in a huge mall is over. Now its drive up, hit a couple of stores and leave.
That article really needs an editor.
Somebody here (I don’t remember who) said that our country could do with about half the retail that we have. And I believe it. I drive past so many strip malls with small businesses, and wonder if anyone ever actually buys anything from these places. I still can’t get over the fact that the local mall in my old state had two Macy’s in it.
Which means…watch out, the next round of layoffs is going to be in retail.
…old state had two Macy’s in it. Maryland? There were a few cases of this when the company decided to change all the Hecht’s into Macy’s.
Maryland is my NEW state. My old state is Ohio. In Ohio, they changed a Kaufmann’s into a Macy’s…in a mall that already had a Macy’s. We’re fast approaching a point where there will be very little selection in women’s clothing, with only one or two lines for each price point.
This has already happened with toys. Pretty much the only toys that survive are ones the Wally World likes.
And Hasbro has become the Microsoft of the boardgame world.
Stanford Shopping Center in Palo Alto CA was like that. They converted a defunct Emporium store into a second Macy’s, calling it the Macy’s Mens’ Store.
Here around Boise there are THREE Macy’s stores for a metro population of 500K.
They did the same at Valley Fair in San Jose. There are 2 huge Macy’s — one for women and one for men and furnishings! But I gotta say, I do love Macy’s!
Vaguely recall the Green Acres Mall in Valley Stream, NY has two full Macy’s (Macy’ses? Macy’i?) in it, with the usual stock range split ‘tween the two.
-evildoc
Re two macy’s
They were probably stuck with a lease that was to expensive to get out of.
Many anchor stores in malls are owned by the anchor store, and are not leased space from the mall.
Macy’s (Macy’ses? Macy’i?)
Um, just add an “s” to the word to make it plural.
Belonging to and making it plural would be Macys’, yes? No?
In one of our malls, they had two anchor store spaces with Macys or Dillards or something and split the inventory. One of the stores had the mens clothes, the other the womens. Happened after acquisitions.
No, change the y to i…
Macies.
the mall in San Jose has two Macys in it: one for men, one for women.
Which one has the lingerie section?
Which one has the lingerie section?
Superb!
‘Tis the season…
Lacy things, the wife is missin’
Didn’t ask, her permission
I’m wearin’ her clothes
Her silk pantyhose
Walkin’ ’round in women’s underwear
In the store, there’s a teddy
Little straps, like spaghetti
It holds me so tight
Like handcuffs at night
Walkin’ ’round in women’s underwear
In the office there’s a guy named Melvin,
He pretends that I am Murphy Brown
He’ll say, “Are you ready?” I’ll say, “Whoa Man!”
“Let’s wait until our wives are out of town!”
Later on, if you wanna
We can dress, like Madonna
Put on some eyeshade
And join the parade
Walkin’ ’round in women’s underwear
Lacy things- missin’
Didn’t ask- permission
Wearin’ her clothes
Silk pantyhose
Walkin’ ’round in women’s underwear
Walkin’ ’round in women’s underwear
Walkin’ ’round in women’s underwear
packman, you devil, you! Would never have known you had a naughty side! Must be the holiday season.
oxide, the layoffs in retail have been happening all year. It just isn’t newsworthy enough to report.
some good quotes:
“There’s clearly a pent-up demand for a neighborhood center,” said Jeff Berman, of the family-run company shepherding the project.”
Clearly.
“Not that it’s a cheap bet. The Bermans bought the property at what’s rumored to be a fire-sale price — some say as little as $40 million. (The property, initially developed by Menin Development Cos., was previously sold in 2007 to a California pension fund for a reported sum of $200 million-plus.)”
And the Cali pension fund strikes again.
We have a similar mall with established anchor stores, a man-made lake, Trader Joe’s and cheap restaurants that do decent business. But after five years they still can’t find tenants for the indoor upstairs.
“There’s clearly a pent-up demand for a neighborhood center,” said Jeff Berman, of the family-run company shepherding the project.”
Dude?! I live about 1 mile from this development. What pent-up demand is there? There’s about 5″neighborhood center” shopping centers in a 3 mile radius around my house. Let me list off the big ones:
Gardens Mall (built 8 years ago, huge/high end mall, across the street from DownTown)
Downtown at the Gardens (pent up demand)
Midtown (Brand new, similar to Downtown, less than 1M away)
Legacy Place (Brand new, similar to Downtown, across the street from Downtown)
And then, within 15 miles, you have a few more really big ones:
CityPlace (also about 8 years old, all kinds of problems getting traffic, built on a ghetto in WPB).
Worth Ave (about 100 years old. This is where the wealthy go to shop, not DownTown at the Gardens. No visible problems/signs of distress here).
Here’s my prediction, all of these “neighborhood” or “lifestyle centers” are going to go under. Downtown has already gone under. I think Legacy Place has as well. MidTown is newer, but will be going under soon. The only one that stands a chance is Gardens Mall, it’s a destination mall, and, frankly, it is pretty nice. But clustering all these places around it? It’s nuts!
Pent up demand.. ROFLMAO. For what? Do we need another Gucci store in the same 10 mile radius.
Come on Michael…give the boy a fighting chance to blow the family fortune.
When his screw up is over, He will have to work as a cashier in one of his families formerly owned malls
————-
Jeff Berman, of the family-run company shepherding the project.”
Sorry, I forgot one (and someone below mentioned it and reminded me).
Aboca (about 10? years old, the only thing it can support are bars and low end resturaunts, built in the same theme (outdoor shopping center) as Downtown. Much better chance of survival because there’s a college, the bars will always have customers). This is about 4 miles from DownTown.
the City called to say, keep those retail permits coming!
“There’s clearly a pent-up demand for a neighborhood center,” said Jeff Berman, of the family-run company shepherding the project.”
If nothing else, they can gut it and film a chase scene in it.
“The property, initially developed by Menin Development Cos., was previously sold in 2007 to a California pension fund for a reported sum of $200 million-plus.”
Did the managers of these funds ever get canned for this crap? They should seriously be taken out behind the woodshed. This is nuts. I can’t believe that so-called “experts” did ridiculously stupid things like this with their clients money. I’m sure all of them are still earning some bloated salary for losing hundreds of millions of dollars! I read an article the other day which said that janitors are more valuable to society than bankers, producing much more dollar for dollar. There is no justification for the wage discrepancy in this country.
Calpers paid an “agent” $75,000,000 (million) that’s right , to act as a middleman to investment companies.
My last comment was eaten, so apologies if it shows up again, but I wrote the S.D. Union on this very matter about a year ago; I was surprised they actually printed my letter, because it basically gives credit to blogs such as this one (and is a subtle swipe at the MSM):
Regarding “CalPERS watches vast land holdings plummet in value” (A1, Dec. 18):
Instead of exercising conservative financial stewardship with employee pensions, it seems CalPERS has taken more the role of a compulsive gambler. You mean to tell me that with its assets that dwarf those of a lot of countries, that it actually borrowed money to invest as well? The lame excuse for its failure is that “No one in the marketplace knew how swiftly the housing market would fall.”
I’m no economic expert, but I was reading blogs almost four years ago that predicted the current housing market to a tee. It’s laughable that CalPERS takes solace in its commercial property investments. Guess what those same blogs predict is the next to fall?
When a pension fund starts talking about “socially responsible” and “environmentally friendly” investments, and is worried more about using their influence to modify behavior, you can be assured that “preservation of capital” and “return on investment” are not considered priorities.
Nice job, DebtInNation!
Speaking of janitors; the head of the janitors union in Ca is on the board of Cal Pers pension fund. Probably voted to buy the mall if they would employ union SEIU janitors.
Grizzly, I take it you’ve never heard of the golden rule?
He who has…
Here’s a letter to the editor of the S.D. Union I penned about a year ago (that they actually published!) about CA’s sinking pension fund investments. Note the part about the blogs:
Regarding “CalPERS watches vast land holdings plummet in value”
Instead of exercising conservative financial stewardship with employee pensions, it seems CalPERS has taken more the role of a compulsive gambler. You mean to tell me that with its assets that dwarf those of a lot of countries, that it actually borrowed money to invest as well? The lame excuse for its failure is that “No one in the marketplace knew how swiftly the housing market would fall.”
I’m no economic expert, but I was reading blogs almost four years ago that predicted the current housing market to a tee. It’s laughable that CalPERS takes solace in its commercial property investments. Guess what those same blogs predict is the next to fall?
U.S. Insurers Post Biggest Sales Decline in 23 Years.
(Bloomberg) — U.S. property and casualty insurance sales plunged 5 percent in the third quarter, the biggest drop since at least 1986, on lower prices and reduced demand.
Policy sales in the three months ended Sept. 30 fell to $108.4 billion from $114.1 billion in the year-earlier period, Verisk Analytics Inc. said today in an e-mailed statement. The previous record was the 4.8 percent slump in the second quarter.
Layoffs at manufacturing and construction companies weighed on demand for workers’ compensation coverage, and individuals who feared losing their jobs spent less insuring their homes and cars. The U.S. lost more than 7 million jobs in the past two years as banks limited lending for businesses and homebuyers.
“Written premiums have now declined versus year-ago levels for 10 successive quarters,” said David Sampson, president of the Property Casualty Insurers Association of America, in the statement. He blamed the recession and “increasingly intense competition in many insurance markets.”
American International Group Inc., the insurer bailed out by the U.S., said property-casualty premiums fell 13 percent to $8.1 billion in the quarter as clients scaled back and rivals poached staff and customers. Travelers Cos., the insurer added to the Dow Jones Industrial Average, said policy sales fell 2.6 percent from last year’s third quarter to $5.34 billion.
Maybe they should anchor it with a few ACORN offices.
“Not that it’s a cheap bet. The Bermans bought the property at what’s rumored to be a fire-sale price — some say as little as $40 million. (The property, initially developed by Menin Development Cos., was previously sold in 2007 to a California pension fund for a reported sum of $200 million-plus.)” Now that`s a good return on your money Cali.
CAN THIS MALL BE SAVED?
By Charles Passy
Palm Beach Post Staff Writer
Posted: 7:43 p.m. Tuesday, Dec. 22, 2009
PALM BEACH GARDENS — If there’s any project that’s come to symbolize South Florida’s boom-gone-bust economy, it’s Downtown at the Gardens.
When the $150 million shopping and dining destination opened near The Gardens Mall in the fall of 2005, it was hailed as a bold new concept, a sophisticated, two-story outdoor mall à la CityPlace — but in a very upscale suburban setting.
In just four years, however, that vision has come quickly apart. Not only has South Florida’s overheated economy melted down, but the project has also been stymied by a confusing design and growing competition along the retail corridor of PGA Boulevard.
Many of Downtown’s primary original tenants, including such high-end restaurant chains as The Strip House and Rosa Mexicano, have shuttered their doors. The dismal numbers of late: Downtown is 30 percent unoccupied.
All of which raises the question: Can this mall be saved?
We’re about to find out: In recent months, a new owner, Rockville, Md.-based Berman Enterprises, has begun the pricey, painstaking process of re-branding and redesigning the Downtown that never quite was.
The company is not necessarily bulldozing parts of the mall, even though at least one Palm Beach Gardens official has suggested that option, but it is planning key physical improvements and additions, including:
A new escalator positioned near the second-story movie theater that will get patrons to the megaplex quicker.
Aesthetically pleasing architectural elements and improved landscaping.
The introduction of different mall “zones” — perhaps one for independent retailers, another for entertainment — to inspire patrons to explore the entire mall.
A plan to hide the trash bins that visitors see as soon as they drive up to the mall.
But the most important addition may be new tenants. Right now, Berman Enterprises has signed just a few — most notably, Cabo Flats, a Mexican eatery that’s going into the old Rosa Mexicano space. The company is looking particularly for restaurants that offer something beyond food — the “eater-tainment” concept — and that keep prices relatively modest.
In some cases, Downtown is also making deals, offering tenants free rent in exchange for a percentage of the sales.
The bet boils down to this: If you fix the obvious problems, the mall is still too good a concept — and in too good a location — to fail, especially once the economy picks up.
“There’s clearly a pent-up demand for a neighborhood center,” said Jeff Berman, of the family-run company shepherding the project.
Not that it’s a cheap bet. The Bermans bought the property at what’s rumored to be a fire-sale price — some say as little as $40 million. (The property, initially developed by Menin Development Cos., was previously sold in 2007 to a California pension fund for a reported sum of $200 million-plus.)
But to turn Downtown around, the Bermans have started to invest what’s likely to be additional millions, covering everything from plants to a newly hired publicity consultant. The family won’t reveal what they’ve spent for the property — or any subsequent improvements — but Kevin Berman, another family member guiding the project, said, “It’s big enough that I don’t feel comfortable” providing a number.
Key to the Bermans’ plan is to get visitors venturing beyond the mall’s still-popular larger tenants — a Whole Foods Market, the Cobb movie theater and the Yard House beer-centric restaurant. The problem is that the mall’s design is one that retail experts say fails to do that — notably, a main interior row of stores on the lower floor is all but lost in the mix. Plus, the mall fronts an attractive man-made lake, but it’s often difficult to view the water from various points. The bottom line? “The initial design was flawed,” said Richard Lackey, a Palm Beach Gardens-based restaurant broker who works throughout the country.
The Bermans believe they can correct the mistakes without resorting to the drastic step suggested by Palm Beach Gardens Councilman Eric Jablin, who has wondered aloud whether the interior walkway should be reconfigured for vehicular traffic.
Instead, they are hoping their proposed changes will encourage visitors to move about the two-level mall. But while the future takes shape, the Bermans aren’t standing by idly. They have put in place a free slate of events, including a free holiday light show that’s playing nightly and an American Idol-style talent contest that has drawn hundreds on weekend nights.
Some tenants like the changes, especially the new events. “It has definitely added to our business,” said Jeff Madick, general manager of RA Sushi, a Japanese restaurant that’s one of the mall’s original tenants.
But retail experts say what a troubled mall often needs most is a new anchor or two, especially a large-scale store or restaurant that’s unique to the area. “If you get things like that, then you’ve got something the mall across the street doesn’t have,” said John Clifford, partner with New York-based GreenbergFarrow, an architectural firm that specializes in mall development.
Only time will tell whether the Bermans woo such a retailer, but they say that’s their ultimate goal. Meanwhile, holiday lights are flashing brightly every night at Downtown as part of the extravagant hourly display. The Bermans, whose family has a 60-year history in the real-estate development business, take immense pride in the free community offering, noting it features 250,000 lights.
As for the number of people viewing them, that’s another story. On a recent weekday evening, there were fewer than a dozen visitors on hand.
Maybe they should anchor it with a few ACORN offices.
And fill it out with a few ‘keep government out of my medicare” teabag stores.
“keep government out of my medicare”
Sorry don’t get it, who runs medicare?
Don’t fret though the new sickness care bill will pass all 2000 plus pages, of which the general public plus most politicians have no clue what it entails. So what, who cares, it has to be better that what we have now, right? Don’t count on it!
I just re-upped with Blue Cross/Blue Sheild starting Feb. 1st.
Catastrophic hospitalization only, 90/10 in network, $5000.00 deductible. $145.67 per month.
“Keep government out of my medicare” was/is a common cry of the teabaggers, who are well-manipulated but, of course, not well-informed.
Surely you didn’t miss the many pictures of teabaggers holding up just such signs, and saying just such things, in your daily news-gathering(?) and dissemination of talking points.
To be fair, I don’t think that it was a particularly COMMON cry, but it’s SO stupid that it is now an oft-repeated rebuke. MOST people probably aren’t that stupid, but SOME of ‘em sure are.
Medicare is insolvent, so let’s spread the wealth, eh?
I’d be willing to bet that a pretty good portion of those grandmas trucked in to shout down the debate are unaware of what ‘their’ medicare really is. They’ve been taught that it’s something their generation earned, and the kenyan socialist is trying to take away.
Don’t misunderestimate the will to stupidity.
Don’t misunderestimate the will to stupidity
Correct. Obama was elected.
Don’t misunderestimate the will to stupidity
Correct. Obama was elected.
In my case, my vote was an aversion to pandering/stupidity - McCain/Palin.
…. but everything will be Okey Dokey when Palin takes office in 2012.
There’s just no end to the stupid.
Don’t misunderestimate the will to stupidity.
Ah, yes, assume that I supported the McCain/Palin ticket.
Ah, yes, assume that I supported the McCain/Palin ticket.
If you were addressing that to me - no, I did not assume anything. I was just defending MY vote against a charge of “stupidity”.
I chose grace and eloquence over Feeble and Barbie.
And yes, I am disappointed, but at least not embarrassed.
Comment by alpha-sloth
2009-12-23 07:34:23
I’d be willing to bet that a pretty good portion of those grandmas trucked in to shout down the debate are unaware of what ‘their’ medicare really is. They’ve been taught that it’s something their generation earned, and the kenyan socialist is trying to take away.
Don’t misunderestimate the will to stupidity.
———————
My Republican MIL said this exact thing to me when the healthcare debate was in its infancy — even before they trotted out those signs. When I asked her why she was opposed to “socialized” medicine when that’s exactly what she had, she gasped and exclaimed that she **paid** for her Medicare, so it was absolutely NOT “socialized” medicine. Seriously, some people are beyond clueless.
I don’t think this mindset is as unusual as some might think.
Catastrophic hospitalization only, 90/10 in network, $5000.00 deductible. $145.67 per month.
I hope you aren’t so naive as to think that in the event of a catastrophic health crisis, you’ll only pay your $5,000 deductible, and everything else will be covered.
Of course not, I have had this policy on and off for years. I know the terms very well. What do you think 90/10 or 90/70 means anyway?
I hope you aren’t so naive to think you won’t pay anything once your gubmint sickness care is implemented in 4or5 years. I am sure you probably think the service will be even better also!
Oh, the holocaust for next 4/5 years……
We pay Kaiser Permanente (HMO) almost $1,000-/mo for two adults on individual plan. No pre-exisiting conditions. $100 surgical/ER co-pay, $25- office visits. We had Blue, but had to use an Attorney for an ER claim we could not control the risk of. We got them to pay up finally. Cheap sounds good on paper, but caveat emptor. (We had one of those Blue cheap plans too.)
A freind of mine was VERY happy that he decided to pay extra for a plan with VERY high maximums when he got Leukemia and had to get a bone marrow transplant. Which has worked out very well for him so far.
Jim A.
Being thin and physically fit can control some risks, but it’s the black swans that can bankrupt you due to medical bills. I wish that this health care”reform” was real. Godspeed to your friend, for a lifelong (70 years left) remission.
Being unusually fit for a policeman his age may well have helped him recover as quickly as he did, but didn’t prevent some impressively high medical costs.
Here is how you handle medical invoices:
Operational fact: Medical invoices have a very small impact on credit ratings.
Thus, you MUST let all invoices go past due. Ignore all collection attempts until the invoice is sent to an outside collector.
Contact collector, offer 25% of invoice over 12 months.
You WILL settle with them at 25-50 of invoice value and all negative reporting will be eliminated from credit.
Do not waste a moment with the hospital business office or billing staff. They are useless and stupid. Only deal with outside collectors and all will work out.
Joe Lawyer has donated a very wise & shiny “present” 2 days before Christmas!
Thankxs Joe!
As few years ago, I had to have a carotid endoectomy, the surgery where they clean the plaque out of the artery leading to the brain. It was the first significant medical procedure I have had in then 57 years of living.
I paid careful attention to the EOBs that I received from my Blue Cross insurance company. The total undiscounted cost of the entire procedure (Drs, hospital, etc) was a little under $45,000. The discounted amount, after Blue Cross negotiated discounts, as a little under $15,000.
So, I suppose its reasonable to attempt to expect “self insured” medical bills to be adjusted to approximately the same net percentage.
What a racket.
Here is how you handle medical invoices:
Operational fact: Medical invoices have a very small impact on credit ratings.
Thus, you MUST let all invoices go past due. Ignore all collection attempts until the invoice is sent to an outside collector.
Contact collector, offer 25% of invoice over 12 months.
You WILL settle with them at 25-50 of invoice value and all negative reporting will be eliminated from credit.
Do not waste a moment with the hospital business office or billing staff. They are useless and stupid. Only deal with outside collectors and all will work out.”
Yea thats right medical billing is a joke anyways
“…What a racket.”
(Hwy scans the horizon looking for cranes…what does he spy with his little eye? Rackets with cranes! Rackets with cranes! The cranes have names: St. Joseph, Kaiser, St. Jude…)
Cactus,
I dunno. I was kind of happy to pay the cardiologist pretty well for saving my ass.
Now, the billing guys screwed things up but that was a different story.
Medical Billing is a racket, for sure. The whole U.S. health care system is a mess.
As someone who takes care of themselves, I get kind of p.o.’d, when I am at Kaiser and see obese people walking around. The Nursing staff is pretty large too. I indulge, but responsibly.
I’m one of the millions of people without healthcare. I haven’t had it in YEARS. I do not smoke, drink, or do drugs. I try to stay active and eat right, but I do have a sweet tooth which can lead to some poor decisions at the grocery store (Ben and Jerry’s comes to mind). I’m not obese. Anyway, I have had one of the worst stomach aches of my life for the past several days, going on 6 days I think.
I’m starting to become concerned. I don’t know if it’s an ulcer or what. But, I don’t go to the doctor. It’s too expensive. All I do is google things, and try to take the best care of myself I can. Ever since my appendix burst on Christmas Eve 5 years ago, I am deathly afraid of hospital bills. That one was $50k, and I did not have that much money. With a threat of BK, I finally negotiated it down to around $14k which I paid by taking out a line of credit on my house. I was thankful for that.
I’ve decided that if I get cancer or something- I’m dead. I don’t think I’ll even bother getting treatment. I’m not sure they would provide it, anyway. I would, perhaps, seek some medication if the pain became unbearable, but that’s pretty much it. I just pretend I live in the olden days where there wasn’t a lot of medicine.
“Medical Billing is a racket, for sure. The whole U.S. health care system is a mess.”
Yes, the whole thing is a joke. A sadistic one, at that. The prices are not reflective of quality care but of pure greed. Rapacious, evil, greed. The excessive profits go to things like gold tableware in private jets for insurance CEO’s, and yachts for “executives”. Who cares if Joe the farmer blew his brains out because he couldn’t afford to take care of his dying wife? It’s called “I got mine, now f*** you.”
grizzlybear,
I have the same thoughts, I always tell my wife that cowboys didn’t have insurance and medicare! When did health care become a ‘right’ vs just lucky to have? If I get super sick, I doubt I will fight it. If I am unlucky and get cancer, too bad for me.
Grizzly, your story regarding your lack of health insurance and how it has/is affecting your life is part of the great tragedy of the U.S. medical non-system. I am concerned for you. You need medical attention. But you already know that. I would like to help. Please e mail me if you want to discuss things further.
I’m also going to respond here to what you said further down the thread about the overmedicated elderly. So true, and so common. The first thing I did when my parents moved close to me was take them to a geriatric specialist. He stopped half the medications each of them were taking. They both seem to be doing fine without the excess pills, and their prescriptions are so few that I am wondering whether the Rx insurance is even worth it.
“…I would like to help. Please e mail me if you want to discuss things further.”
That’s the Christmas Spirit Elanor! …x3 Cheers !
Hey rusty & all you cowboys at heart, here ya go, Merry Christmas!
I ain’t much good at prayin’, and You may not know me, Lord–
I ain’t much seen in churches where they preach Thy Holy Word,
But You may have observed me out here on the lonely plains,
A-lookin’ after cattle, feelin’ thankful when it rains,
Admirin’ Thy great handiwork, the miracle of grass,
Aware of Thy kind Spirit in the way it comes to pass
That hired men on horseback and the livestock that we tend
Can look up at the stars at night and know we’ve got a Friend.
So here’s ol’ Christmas comin’ on, remindin’ us again
Of Him whose comin’ brought goodwill into the hearts of men
A cowboy ain’t no preacher, Lord, but if You’ll hear my prayer,
I’ll ask as good as we have got for all men everywhere.
Don’t let no hearts be bitter, Lord; don’t let no child be cold.
Make easy beds for them that’s sick, and them that’s weak and old.
Let kindness bless the trail we ride, no matter what we’re after,
And sorta keep us on Your side, in tears as well as laughter.
I’ve seen old cows a-starvin’, and it ain’t no pretty sight:
Please don’t leave no one hungry, Lord, On Thy good Christmas night–
No man, no child, no woman, and no critter on four feet–
I’ll aim to do my best to help You find ‘em chuck to eat.
I’m just a sinful cowpoke, Lord,–ain’t got no business prayin’–
But still I hope You’ll ketch a word or two of what I’m a-sayin’:
We speak of Merry Christmas, Lord–I reckon You’ll agree
There ain’t no Merry Christmas for nobody that ain’t free.
So one thing more I’ll ask You, Lord: just help us what You can
To save some seeds of freedom for the future sons of man!
A Cowboy’s Christmas Prayer
Christmas poem written by S. Omar Barker.
the whole thing is a joke. A sadistic one, at that. The prices are not reflective of quality care but of pure greed. Rapacious, evil, greed.
There are a lot of things in this world that people need but are prevented from having by REAL rapacious evil greed, affordable housing for instance. The medical system is not your enemy, and the prices are a reflection of the cost of doing business. For doctors without rich parents and an unlimited line of credit, the costs of just starting a practice involve:
1)Getting an education, which can be anywhere from 50-200K+ just for medical school.
2)Overhead expenses:
-specialized equipment and staff
-getting licensure and credentialing with states, hospitals, insurance plans, specialty boards, continuing education and certifications
-advertising and building referral bases
-malpractice insurance
3) Uncompensated time making and returning calls, reviewing reams of tests and referral letters, filling out even bigger reams of forms from insurance companies, regulatory agencies, employers.
People like you are vulnerable, scared and don’t care about those things when they’re hurting, but don’t blame the evil greedy doctors for having to charge what it costs to stay in business. As a medical provider, it’s aggravating to see people paying $200/hr for a plumber, $100+ for a pair of jeans, hundreds of dollars for a tune-up for the car…but when it comes to paying a provider similar prices for competent care and taking the big risks involved in caring for human beings, then they seek to get the government involved.
If Americans really want affordable health care, then they have to look at the entire food chain and start reform from the bottom up, not the top down and then scream bloody murder when the inevitable unintended consequences of changing a profession that took a century to build overnight.
“There are a lot of things in this world that people need but are prevented from having by REAL rapacious evil greed, affordable housing for instance. The medical system is not your enemy, and the prices are a reflection of the cost of doing business.”
What a load of tripe. The entire health care industry is fraught with rapacious greed from insurance companies, big pharma, hospitals, and the like. You can throw some doctors into that mix, too. The prices don’t represent the true costs of doing business, but rather how rich they all can get on the backs of the sick and poor. Wake up.
“People like you are vulnerable, scared and don’t care about those things when they’re hurting, but don’t blame the evil greedy doctors for having to charge what it costs to stay in business. As a medical provider, it’s aggravating to see people paying $200/hr for a plumber, $100+ for a pair of jeans, hundreds of dollars for a tune-up for the car…but when it comes to paying a provider similar prices for competent care and taking the big risks involved in caring for human beings, then they seek to get the government involved.”
I have NEVER, nor would I, paid $200 per hour for a plumber. I have never paid $100 for a pair of jeans. I do my own home maintenance, work on my own vehicles, and buy new jeans when they are on sale and mine are threadbare. Save your strawman arguments and generalizations for someone who actually falls for that crap. You don’t know the first thing about me.
Thank you for being so kind, Elanor. I’m truly grateful that there are still caring souls in this world.
I fail to understand why people would pay excessive health insurance premiums instead of putting that payment into a bank.
$1,000 per month time 12 equals $12,000 in the bank! In five years it is $60,000 and 10 years you have $120,000 in the bank!
Oh, I know you are afraid of getting hit with big bills, but you can just as easily get hit with a big court judgement , couldn’t you.
It might be worth it for high premium payers to just sign up with a concierge doctor and pay cash for treatment!
And put the extra in the bank!
JackO
But, but……..I thought that all doctors were concerned about was “caring for people” (snark off). Having said that, part of the problem is how far doctor’s are in the hole financially when they get out of Med School.
Everyone is just going to have to face facts that a civilized society is going to provide health care to people. A “free market” system, OTOH, is going to throw a high percentage of people under the bus.
We are currently spending twice as much per capita for health care as any other industrialized country, and getting crappier outcomes and service. The only people happy with the current system are the insurance companies, and the medical specialists.
Health care needs to be considered a public utility/infrastructure, like the electric company. I don’t think anyone would be happy with a “free market” solution to the electric business, if 30% of the population was still depending on candlelight.
This solution deals in reality, not the “free market” dogma circulated by the Republican Kool-aid drinkers.
Grizzly, the last time I had something like this “I have had one of the worst stomach aches of my life for the past several days, going on 6 days I think.” it was kidney stones. There are several kinds. By far the most common are calcium oxalate. The other types occur generally as a result of other illnesses, but calcium oxalate usually occurs in health people. There are foods to avoid, but this seems to change every year or so. Use Google advanced search option and limit it to the most recent year’s data. One of the best preventives is now reported to be orange juice as the citrate helps dissolve the stones. Also, drink lots of water to prevent precipitation. Do not limit calcium. Use Google to check on the symptoms.
Anyone who believes that your medical costs are twice as high as any other country, appears to have forgotten that our standard of living , and wages are about double what every other country pays.
I thing! LOL
Last time I had a bad stomach problem I was in hospital for 6 days with no food. Turned out my stomach had been blocked , and , it may have been caused by excessive usage of anti-acids blocking the digestion of the foods.
Since May 2009, I have not taken an anti-acid for stomach pain.
Whether that is good or bad, I have no idea.
JackO
Save your strawman arguments and generalizations for someone who actually falls for that crap.
Wow, nice attitude…I’m not surprised your interactions with the healthcare system reinforce your belief that they’re all out to get you.
Personally, I’d love to live in a world where magic gumdrop-sh*tting ponies and rainbows coexist with cheap health care, low taxes, and easy answers…but until Congress legislates all of that, you’ll have to deal with all the harsh complexities of the real world the rest of us do.
Good luck with that.
Grizzly,
I also think you should get medical care. Chances are, it’s nothing really bad, but you should get it checked out so they can diagnose it and treat whatever is causing your pain. It might be as easy as a simple pill or change in diet.
Maybe we all can chip in to help? Will start a thread in the forums, so we can all talk about it.
Best of luck to you!!!!
Grizzly
Sorry to hear about your stomach problems. Please let us know in tomorrow’s Bits Bucket if you’d be open to us starting a thread in the forum for fund-raising. I don’t want to start a thread without your permission.
Or…you can just reply here and I will try to read it tomorrow or the next day.
Hope you feel better soon!!!
WMBZ, I think I have nearly the same policy as you if not identical. Anthem (Blue Cross) sent me a letter saying they were going to increase my premium (and my wife’s, who is on a completely separate policy) by about 30 freakin’ percent. Did you get a similar thing?
A couple of weeks ago, my sister’s friend husband was working under one of his trucks when it fell on him in northern Minnestoa. She said the chopper ride to the hospital was 14k and the bed in ICU alone is 10k a day. He is one squished puppy.
More recently, one of my older buddies had a serious stroke. His chopper ride out of in the NC mountain resort town area to a major medical center was at least 10k.
Sheesh…now he laughs and says that the US Army used to give us lots of chopper rides to Evil Places and they never charged us a dime.
“The times, they are a changing”
New Health Bill pages 240-249 contains more $ givaways to ACORN. Plus, they left in the DEATH PANELS to ration health care to those nasty seniors on Medicare.
be skeeerd of dem dar def panles! lmao.
OH MY GOD. Like there aren’t panels in HMOs and private insurance that ration health care right now to those nasty seniors.
BTW aren’t you using CA taxes to help keep your child alive?
“Get government out of our lives” the moonbats declare. The next breath they yammer “ban abortion”.
Oh no no no, we’re not going to have the “a” debate here.
Please?
And I thought moonbats were the ultralibs?
Exeter, when it comes to murder, I am perfectly fine with the government protecting those who can’t protect themselves.
Agree, as long as the government foots the bill for the consequences of saving that life and arranges for someone to provide 18 years of care. Octomom should be able to draw all the welfare she needs, for instance.
Adoption is not always easy when the child isn’t “blond/blue” photogenic, has medical needs or behavioral issues.
Finally…feeding, housing, educating and medicating that baby gets pretty expensive, and not likely to be done adequately by unwilling or ill equipped parent(s).
I whacked off last night. Guess I’m a murderer too.
All sperm is sacred, dontcha know?
well, at least at the logical consistency level, the argument makes sense. Whether to classify it as murder or not is another debate, but you can’t say he is being inconsistent in what he wants the government to do.
X-GSfixr, it ain’t murder unless you fertilize an egg and then kill the resulting baby, so you’re good to go.
If you don’t like abortion, don’t get one. But I’ll wager you’ll find some excuse for capital punishment.
Please proceed with the religious distortions.
Picture Gallery of the Downtown At The Gardens. http://www.downtownatthegardens.com/gallery.asp
Too much Starkitecture for my taste.
This looks like what they call a “lifestyle center”: a faux little village that supposedly keeps people there with it’s mix of shops, food and entertainment. Feels like a theme park without the roller-coaster and any novelty will soon wear off.
Yeah Palm trees in front of “Urban” Outfitters
I just go back and enjoy the views of Cher’s beautiful mansion she wants to unload
They already have the great urban experiment Abacoa around the corner…did anyone ever see a pedestrian there?
“Lifestyle” centers are for the yuppie and faux wealthy crowd, with more money then brains. What gets me shaking my head in disbelief, is when they build residences above the retail, but no pharmacy, variety, or grocery store is on the premises. Yeah, that will replace downtown urban living. WHYoung, you would have had a hard time in shopping center management school. I had to duct tape my mouth often. I needed my career. Christmas was always a blast, and I did clean up on gifts!
Overdog- A lot of stripmalls are getting the fancy “water feature” fronts, and are now called “lifestyle” centers. It goes with the preteniousness of the people and theme. Yuck.
What do you mean, “grocery store?” Are you some kind of stay-at-home hick!!!
Your breakfast is a Venti Mocha (with soy) from SBUX.
Your lunch is catered by Your Employer.
Your dinner is had at the Cheesecake Factory.
Your after-dinner relaxant is at the Public House (don’t call it a bar).
Your nightcap comes to bed with you in your Luxury Condo.
The next morning, you both admire your Granite before heading off to SBUX .
We can’t be having something like a CVS or its ilk — that attracts the riff-raff.
What, no ABC Store on every corner?
oxide
lol. Funny stuff. I needed that.
I find shopping to be a depressing chore. Add 1000s of other people, and it becomes hell on earth.
+1
Anybody catch a glimpse of the manmade lake mentioned in the article?
This is also the “anchor” (in more ways than one) for one of my fav condo buildings, the Landmark at the Gardens.
http://www.landmarkpalmbeach.com/
This is the condo building in the mall parking lot, with the prices into the multi-M dollar range (during the bubble). The building is empty, and will probably die a slow death over the next 10 years, until, finally, they get owners who are willing to pay the high maint fees (as long as they get the condo cheap enough). Downtown is in the backyard from this condo, the mall (Gardens Mall) is the front yard.
What a crazy place to put a condo like this. I wonder if they tout “mall-front” views? “You can see the Macy’s parking lot from here!”.
They kinda whiz by that view in slide show
I wonder if they tout “mall-front” views? “You can see the Macy’s parking lot from here!
Actually, that looks like a bargain and quite nice compared to this crazy monstrosity built on the failed complex of an aging shuttered shopping center.
http://www.sturbridgehomes.com/html/annapolistowncenter.html
600K to 1MM+ condos built over a Target store. For those that know the area this is the most congested corner of outskirts Annapolis - it’s actually a Parole address.
Lucky buyers of these condos will have stunning views of the Rt 50, 450 and Rt 2 exchange -and if that’s not enough I can only imagine the wonderful roof-top views of Home Depot, TJ Maxx Appliance land, the adult video store and miles of retail strip mall that surround it.
You can’t walk anywhere from there except the local strip shopping centers.
What a joke!
Good lord! What an EYESORE!
But retail experts say what a troubled mall often needs most is a new anchor or two, especially a large-scale store or restaurant that’s unique to the area. “
I am thinking a Philly Chessesteak Place!
I’ve seen national chains offering a “Philly Cheesesteaks” that bear no resemblance to what you can get at Jim’s, or even my favorite place Mamma Mia’s which is a Delco hole in the wall.
From what I understand Tony Luke’s is going national maybe he can help them out.
Dude, you are in the nirvana area for pizza and cheesesteaks. The cheesesteaks in LA are just too horrible to talk about. They grill up skirt steak, throw on some onions, peppers and white cheese. It’s an abomination.
We do have plenty of good mexican, vietnamese, chinese and seafood. Some good steakhouses but you pay out the backside.
I found one very good pizza place that is somewhat similar to what you can get in Jersey (like Trenton, NJ home of great pizza similar to Madision Wisconsin…there were some articles on where pizza started in the US). Valentino’s on aviation in manhatten beach). Also other Valentino’s on Sepulveda/PCH in El Segundo. mmmmm.
Still searching out a good cheesesteak place.
We just picked up a good Lebanese place in the manhatten beach mall.
I’m stuck living in this area now. Too much effort to find another good pizza place.
I feel for you, no lie. Once you’ve had the real deal, it’s difficult to accept substitutes. If you know your way around a kitchen, maybe you can try to cook your own? But you’d need to get some good rolls, good luck with that.
p.s. I’m not a dude. But I feel privileged, now I can join oxide’s Club for Female HBBers Mistaken for Male.
(Hey oxide! Can I borrow your black penny loafers?)
lol
I’ve been all over the US. In the last 40 years, I’ve never found a cheesesteak as good as the ones I can get within 20 miles of Philadelphia, PA…
I’ve never found a cheesesteak as good as the ones I can get within 20 miles of Philadelphia, PA…
I have had many cheesesteak sandwiches in my life and I’m sure none of them were authentic, although I do mostly enjoy them.
What does go into a really good cheesesteak sammich?
1. Chip steak.
2. Cheesesteak rolls from your preferred Italian bakery. I just discovered a bakery in Delaware, Serpe’s. (OMG - melt in your mouth)
3. Cheese (American, Provolone, or Whiz)
4. Fried onions if it makes you happy
It’s not just the ingredients, it’s the way they’re made.
Ideally you have a grill, you chop up the meat as it cooks and you throw the onions in at the same time. The meat should not be thick. Everything goes on the roll that is soft and chewy and makes the perfect bed for the meat, cheese and fixins.
This may sound horrible and heavy, but a good cheesesteak goes down easy and actually can feel like a light meal. I know it doesn’t make sense, but that’s the beauty and the magic of it.
So Phillie residents…….where is the “Gotta go to” place for a Philly Cheese steak sandwich, if one happens to be in Philidelphia?
Inquiring minds want to know…….
1. Chip steak.
2. Cheesesteak rolls
3. Cheese Provolone
4. Fried onions if it makes you happy
+mushrooms
I’ve had this. Why is it that people insist that you can’t get it anywhere except PA/NJ?
“I found one very good pizza place that is somewhat similar to what you can get in Jersey (like Trenton, NJ home of great pizza similar to Madision Wisconsin…there were some articles on where pizza started in the US). Valentino’s on aviation in manhatten beach). Also other Valentino’s on Sepulveda/PCH in El Segundo. mmmmm.”
Lamonica’s in Westwood was pretty good pizza. Circa 2002, but it probably still is.
After Dry Year, Start-Ups Are Poised to Get Cash.
PUI-WING TAM
After a dismal 2009, venture capitalists are preparing to ramp up their investments, injecting much-needed cash into start-ups.
Some venture-capital firms have loosened their purse strings in recent weeks and are starting to invest new money. That has resulted in several deals, such as last month’s $52 million infusion into social-networking advertising and software company RockYou Inc. and the $57 million invested in online textbook-rental service Chegg Inc.
In addition, many venture capitalists say they have been meeting investment bankers and working with their tech start-ups on filing for initial public offerings next year.
OK dumb question…where are the VC’s getting the money to invest into startups? They’re not [oh horror] borrowing it, are they?
If not, then combo will be happy. He’s all for raiding every last pocket of hidden cash.
“If not, then combo will be happy. He’s all for raiding every last pocket of hidden cash.”
I’m always happy, with or without hidden cash.
However cash, along with fertilizer, works best when it is spread around.
“…and the $57 million invested in online textbook-rental service Chegg Inc.”
What next… “revised-every-3-months” college text books made in China sold @ Wal-Fart?
I think that is the future of text books, no longer getting a bound volume, but a download for your Kindle, good only of course, for a specific period of time.
Dot Com part deux?
It’s been happening. Trust me when I tell you that we have hardly began to use the full power and possibilities of the Internet.
However, like the first boom, the current one will also collapse, to eventually be replaced by a 3rd. And a 4th. And so on.
“The world’s most popular economists - notably Ben Bernanke and Paul Krugman - would probably make fine bartenders. They are good at providing ‘liquidity,’ and not much more.”
~Bill Bonner
“…and not much more.”
These economists obviously have a second essential qualification for the job, which is the ability to tell a good story.
Oh. I thought you were going to say a ‘certain’ other skill. One that is not mentioned in polite company.
What, like cucking socks?
Do you mean clucking stocks?
You clever dog.
bar patrons would complain about the watery drinks.
Now if we only had a bouncer to kick people out when they get plastered and start wrecking the place.
The headline reads
Home sales up 63 percent in Palm Beach County; 78 percent in Treasure Coast
But at the bottom
Home prices continued to fall slightly compared to last year. Statewide, the median home sales price was $139,000, down 12 percent from $158,200. Prices in Palm Beach County dropped 8 percent from $247,400 in November 2008 to $227,500 last month. The median sales price for a Treasure Cost home was $111,700 in November, down 14 percent from the 2008 price of $130,500.
Slightly? 12%, 8% and 14% in a year with steroids being pumped in. What`s a big drop gonna look like?
Enlarge Photo Home resales surged last month to the highest level in nearly three years, reflecting an extraordinary level of federal support that has pulled the housing market back from the worst downturn since the Great Depression. (AP Photo/Paul Sakuma, file)
By Kimberly Miller
Palm Beach Post Staff Writer
Posted: 11:41 a.m. Tuesday, Dec. 22, 2009
Existing home sales increased again in November, jumping 61 percent statewide compared to the same time last year and climbing 63 percent in Palm Beach County.
Home sales in the Treasure Coast were up 78 percent.
Real estate experts expected November to be a banner sales month with first-time home buyers trying to beat an original Nov. 30 deadline to earn up to an $8,000 tax credit.
The push broke records nationally. Sales volume of existing homes, condos and townhomes in November was 6.54 million — the highest since February 2007.
Also, single-family home sales nationwide saw the largest year-over-year percentage gain at 42.1 percent since September 1983’s increase of 42.6 percent.
Compared to 2008, November sales were up 44 percent nationally last month.
The National Association of Realtors said 51 percent of those sales were made by first-time buyers. The annual average of homes bought by first-timers is 40 percent.
A temporary drop in sales is expected in December because of the holidays and the splurge of first-time buyers trying to make the original Nov. 30 deadline to earn the tax credit.
But Lawrence Yun, chief economist for the association, predicts sales will jump again in the spring as the new April 30 deadline to earn a tax credit nears.
“Hopefully,” Yun said of the spring increase, “it will take us into a self-sustaining market in the second half of 2010.”
Lower interest rates were also a likely factor driving sales.
According to Freddie Mac, interest rates for a 30-year loan fell to 4.88 percent in November — the second lowest on record after bottoming out at 4.81 percent in April.
Home prices continued to fall slightly compared to last year. Statewide, the median home sales price was $139,000, down 12 percent from $158,200. Prices in Palm Beach County dropped 8 percent from $247,400 in November 2008 to $227,500 last month. The median sales price for a Treasure Cost home was $111,700 in November, down 14 percent from the 2008 price of $130,500.
Huh????
Who publishes this crap???
“The push broke records nationally. Sales volume of existing homes, condos and townhomes in November was 6.54 million — the highest since February 2007.”
Ummmm - that’s more homes and condos sold in the largest entire YEAR!!!
Kimberly Miller of the Palm Beach Post and all of her ilk nationwide need a lobotomy.
People are stupid
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aBFZ33vzNLVs&pos=4
Dec. 23 (Bloomberg) — Ford Motor Co. agreed with China’s Zhejiang Geely Holding Group Co. on most terms about a sale of its Volvo Car Corp. unit and the automakers aim to complete the transaction in the second quarter.
**********************
A holding group, kind of like some of our food suppliers. Am I just a cynic to wonder about the quality of a product where decision making is made by people known for corporate value extraction.
There goes my plan to replace my 15 year old Volvo, with the same. When I read that, I felt bad for the brand. A Swedish made Volvo truly was a great car. (Circa pre-1996, before Ford)
Awaiting the Wipeout,
I’m with you on the Volvo thing. I begrudgingly replaced my 95 850 T-5 with a newer 2001 S70 T-5. The old 850 had nearly 300K trouble-free high performance miles and is the best car I have ever owned.
The ford inspired S70 is the worst car I’ve ever owned in my lifetime. I only regret that I counseled so many to buy Volvos based on my 850 experience only to have major problems with the S series models.
Oddly, I’m now driving a Ford Expedition 2004 vintage with more than 150k miles and no problems.
Whenever it goes to a “holding company” they either keep it for a bit and then dump it to somebody who didn’t want to pony up at first or, they rape it for the equity and leave it out to die. Either way it’s not a good sign for Volvo. I loved my S-60 T5. That thing hauled a**
Geely does make cars.
It would be great if Geely ends up emulating Volvo in the safety division. Unfortunately I think it will be the other way around.
Does this mean that LegoLand in Carlsbad CA, is going to have to let cHummers park next to the cVolvo’s in those “special parking spaces” up close to the park entrance?
But retail experts say what a troubled mall often needs most is a new anchor or two, especially a large-scale store or restaurant that’s unique to the area.
I am thinking Philly Chessesteaks!
wit Whiz!
Cheez [sic] Whiz??? Seriously???
There’s an article in USA Today about some Philadelphia eateries.
That’s the main thing I miss about the city.
Palm Beach County plans to auction foreclosed properties online
December 21, 2009
Trading the courthouse steps for a computer keyboard, Palm Beach County next month plans to start auctioning foreclosed properties online instead of in person.
On Jan. 21, Clerk & Comptroller Sharon Bock plans to switch to online sales as a money-saving maneuver billed as more convenient for the public.
The county has about 45,000 pending foreclosure cases, averaging 2,500 new cases each month. The clerk’s office typically holds two or three foreclosure sales a week, selling as many as 150 properties at a time.
“With the record number of foreclosure cases filed in Palm Beach County, along with our unprecedented budget cuts … every dollar that can be saved counts,” Clerk &Comptroller Sharon Bock said.
Starting Jan. 6, those interested in bidding in online auctions can access the county’s foreclosure sales website through http://www.palmbeachclerk.com . The website allows people to register for bidding, place deposits and research available properties.
The clerk is also offering training classes available from 1 to 3 p.m. Jan. 5 at the clerk’s learning center at the main courthouse, 205 N. Dixie Highway, West Palm Beach. To register for a class, call 561-355-6824.
For information, call the clerk’s office at 561-355-2996.
How is this useful? I thought that 99% of the “auctions” were just for the banks to bid the loan amount and take possession of their properties? Yeah, I guess if a house goes into foreclosure and it isn’t underwater (IE, you’d outbid the bank), then it could be interesting. But, in this climate? How many of the houses winding up at the courthouse steps have any equity in them?
All the more reason to do it online, it saves the mortgage servicers from having to send/hire somebody to/in the auction location.
Out here in San Diego, they will often place an opening bid that is below the amount owed.
I think this online auction idea is FANTASTIC!!!!!
Harry Reid (Bill) Turns Insurance Into a Public Utility
“The perils of the Reid bill are made evident in a recent Congressional Budget Office (CBO) report that focused on the bill’s rebate program, which holds that once an insurance company spends more than 10% of its revenues on administrative expenses, its customers are entitled to an indefinite statutory rebate determined by state regulatory authorities subject to oversight by the Secretary of Health and Human Services.”
The CBO concluded that this one restriction turned the Reid bill into “an essentially governmental program.” In other words, the targeted health insurers would become de facto public utilities whose profits are gutted when the huge compliance costs under the Reid bill are piled on top of the hefty costs inherent in running a labor intensive health-care insurance business.”
“Worse still, the statutory rebate is only the tip of a larger regulatory iceberg that permeates the bill. Normally, insurers have the power to underwrite—to choose their line of business, to select and to price risks, and to decline unattractive risks. Not under the Reid bill. In its frantic effort to expand coverage to the uninsured, the bill will create state health-care exchanges “supported by generous federal subsidies” to unspecified millions of needy and low-income individuals. Any health insurance carrier that steers clear of these exchanges cannot keep its customers. Any insurance carrier that enters Mr. Reid’s inferno will lose its financial shirt.”
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704304504574610040924143158.html
Therefore, if this bill passes as it’s described (who really knows what it says at this point in time?) the government really will become the principle insurer, which is what the Dems really want. Why else would they risk loosing their current majorities when its so plainly obvious that a majority of the people don’t like this bill.
Another thing, if healthcare for the uninsured is such an important goal (and I think something should be done to help them) why does this bill report to start “mandating payment” for the healthcare in 2010 and not start providing healthcare coverage until 2014??
IMO for a couple of reasons. (1) Without the first 3-4 years of payment up front, this bill could never be called revenue neutral or a net saving. (2) Obama and the Dems don’t want the effects of the government run healthcare to be felt until after the next Presidential election.
Now that’s Hope and Change!
Tough. The insurance companies didn’t want a public option? Guess what: the ARE the public option. As I predicted.
And the Dems will beat them up every time they raise prices or cut costs.
They thought they’d get unlimited public funds through the subsidies, because there would be no alternative to compare with.
They’d have been better off having the government try to run a competing service, finding out what the costs were, and getting equal subsidies. Because there is nothing to compare with, there is no limit to possible demands by those who want everything for nothing.
This isn’t a surprise, is it? Obama has long signaled his Fascist intentions, and his admiration for Chavez and Castro. Government-run insurance companies.
When will grocery stores be taken over?
Congratulations! You’ve won today’s “Most Paranoid Post on HBB” award.
In a Fascist government, the government does not own anything, it merely dictates. Private property is still privately owned. Remember the story of Oskar Schindler, he owned factories and was provided the labor.
You are correct, skroodle. Notice that I didn’t say the government owns the insurance companies.
“…Obama has long signaled his Fascist intentions”
eudemon, what you’re not a member of this club?:
Cheney-Shrub: “We want him to succeed as president, we really do.”
Fascism, pronounced /ˈfæʃɪzəm/, is a political ideology that seeks to combine radical and authoritarian nationalism with a corporatist economic system.
Patriot Act?
Der Fatherland, er Homeland Security?
Patriot Act 2?
TSA?
Illegal wiretapping?
No knock search warrants?
Repeal of Great Depression Financial regulations?
K Street?
Seen those WMDs lately?
And where IN the world is Carmen Bin Laden?
TARP?
Yeah, let’s talk about Obama’s “fascisim.” Better yet, quit while you’re behind.
The list is much, MUCH longer.
OMG, you sound as wacko as those Birther people. Perchance you should educate yourself as to the definition of “fascist” before you ignorantly bandy around such a term. Just repeating it over and over doesn’t make it so, in fact, that strategy is straight out of Goebbels playbook.
The Greediest Generation is going to sh!t bricks when the Medicare cuts start coming down hard on the elderly.
The only good result I see coming from this mess is that the elderly economic vampires are going to suffer the most direct effect of denial of medical services and, hopefully, will expire sooner as a result.
Social Security and Medicare are a dagger at the throat of everyone under the age of 45. Either our parents generation will viciously liquidate everything to support their unsustainable lifestyle (free retirement money and medical for life after 65, a ponzi built on their grandchildren’s future).
Why is this country falling apart? Because the Kennedy cohort asked not what they could do for their country, but what could the country do for them?
The sooner they depart the scene, the sooner we can dig out from the wreckage and start the long process of rebuilding from the ashes they will leave us.
Joe - How do you plan care for your parents and grand parents if your wish is granted?
Joe, it’s true that a disproportionate amount of health care dollars go to the elderly at the end of their lives. But I’m sitting here smiling at the thought of my little old frail and feeble parents, ages 89 and 81, being “greedy” or “vicious”.
Without SocSec and Medicare (and their children), their lives would be dismal. Anyone who loves and honors their elders wants their deaths to occur without undue suffering, and that includes making their last years comfortable.
But at some point, soon I believe, that end of life care will tend to providing comfort rather than an attempt at life extension at any cost. Far too much money is spent on trying to extend the lives of the elderly. I am approaching 61, and my guess those around my age will be on the leading edge of that movement. Personally, I am in favor of it. There is a finite amount of money to spend on health care, and resources are better spent on those with a lot of life ahead of them rather than those with most of their life behind them.
Wishing the oldsters dead may be a bit harsh though.
Agree w/ you completely, Spokaneman.
Just an hour ago I went to Radiology to read slides on a 97 year old man’s lung biopsy. I hope he and his doctor aren’t going to try treating his cancer. No question if it were me, I’d be making the hospice arrangements as soon as I got off the table!
Just place my remains on the boat, set fire
and set adrift. Nothing like a good old
fashioned Viking funeral. Music now with
Halls of the Mountain King…loudly
Let’s eliminate every one in government over 60 yrs of age. A modern day SOLENT GREEN. (That includes state and local as well).
the trouble is, when you’re actually seriously looking at death yourself, you might feel the same way you do now, or you might not. Fortunately, the bill has a mechanism to help you with your decision.
Take it away, exeter…
Tough. The insurance companies didn’t want a public option? Guess what: the ARE the public option. As I predicted.
And the Dems will beat them up every time they raise prices or cut costs.
Wrong take a look at Medicare Advantage. That program allows insurance companies to charge tax payers 14% more than Medicares costs to provide medical care to the elderly. When it was implemented we were told that the private sector would save the tax payer money.
The worst possible system is gov private partnership. It makes it much easier to privatize the gains and socialize the losses. It leads to huge campaign contributions and corruption of gov.
As far as I’m concerned, Medicare Advantage is just a middleman that is best done away with.
Yesterday I was in Wally World and saw a guy in a nice suit with a name tag that said “United Health Customer Care” or some such BS on it. He was lurking around the pharmacy. I seriously thought about giving him some trash talk. And then there are the infomercials for some of these health plans, which started only recently, gee-I-wonder-why. First it was a straight up informercial with happy agents* explaining the happy plan. Then this week they aired a “Redskins health special” brought to you by Glaxo-Smithkline, of course. They’re not even pretending anymore.
The health insurance companies are clearly scared, and they are trying to hook seniors on their company brand. I want to throw a brick through the TV.
——-
*The “agent” was a paid actor portrayal, according to the small, white, barely-readable-even-with-good-eyes print which flashed briefly on the bottom of the screen. I gotta wonder, they couldn’t use a real agent?
My parents have supplemental health insurance and prescription coverage through United Healthcare. I am seriously considering dropping these policies as soon as I get both parents to sign durable power of attorney documents handing over their financial affairs to me. The ’savings’ just don’t add up and the policies (being through UHC after all) are expensive. Plus, most of the people you have to talk to on the phone there are dumb as posts.
Not sure what drugs your parents are taking, Elanor, but one thing that is horribly wrong with medicine these days is the over prescribing of medications. The doctors are in bed with big Pharma, and in turn slam their products down their patients throats. Personally, I don’t even take aspirin.
PS- I know you’re a doctor, and FAR smarter than me when it comes to these things, but I’ve learned that my own mother is on a cocktail of drugs from her doctor, and it concerns me.
You have to admit, American’s always ask for a pill when they are feeling bad. I have to bite my tongue when my co-workers take anti-biotics to help them get over the Flu.
Speaking as someone who is in the geriatric
club (SS and medicare), taking medications
is anathema to me and my wife. Proper
eating habits and exercise are the key. It helps when you have a 5000 sqft + garden,
loads of fruit trees, easy access to one of
the best butcher shops in the NW with range
critters, local ranches and farms for anything you need that you don’t grow yourself.
Eating well is not cheap. We see 300 lb
women in white spandex, celulite rippling
from ankle to hips, dragging two screaming
brats that haven’t had a bath for a year, all
the while loading up their carts with 10
frozen pizza’s and 4 cases of diet soda.
I feel like bitch slapping the silly sods and
enrolling them in a course of nutrition.
Next time I’ll tell you what really P me O.
WT:
Why wouldn’t a worker participation plan work?
say around $1 hr goes to pay your health insurance. about $2000/yr
adjust it so min wage workers pay 50 cents high pay execs pay $1.50-$2 hr…all wages will be counted.
Then those that don’t work full time at least pay something each year…and supplemented by medicaid/medicare
This would mean congress and the Pres has a BIG HUGE incentive to get as many people working as possible. which I would like
I think I can safely say that about 95% of the people in this country think that the Medical-Insurance Complex, as currently configured, sucks.
We have long passed the point where health insurance costs are causing problems to the larger economy…..big manufacturers moving out of the country, because they carry the healthcare load, people forced to stay in crappy jobs due to pre-existing conditions, people over 50 not being able to get insurance at any kind of affordable price, the list goes on.
Republicans don’t care about the uninsured. Uninsured people don’t vote Republican anyway. Insurance company executives vote Republican. Both groups decided that they could torpedo the plan; they decided to vote for the status quo.
I used to be a Republican, up until about 2003-04. It finally got to the point where the stupidity spewing from the Republican “Brain-Trust” became too hard for me to ignore.
Utilites enjoys a constant and guaranteed demand, with the subsequent constant and guaranteed profit. In return for this competitive advantage, they agree to heavy regulation.
Health insurance enjoys constant and guaranteed demand, with subsequent constant (sky-high) profit. They enjoy a similar competitive advantage. Shouldn’t they be regulated too?
They should be regulated to death, as punishment for continuing the tie between place of work and health insurance, and price discrimination in (non-profit, supposedly charitable) health care based on the market power of the payer.
How come we didn’t get rid of the latter?
Just remember what the Republicans are in favor of: what we have now, minus Medicare for younger generations once they bankrupt the country. It is really disappointing that they decided to try to screw things up rather than make things better as a political strategy.
I’m pretty disapointed in the process.
Personally with these things, the best plan is to push the cart down the hill. Let it destruct on it’s own.
I think the point of the article, which I agree with, is that the regulation in this bill will result in the medical insurance companies going out of business, eventually leading to a single payer system.
I don’t like the single payer because there are only two ways to contain costs, limit access and/or limit the payments for services. Either way, medical care services will rely on a sea of government bureaucrats to determine who is worthy of a procedure and who is not.
Currently we spend a lot of money towards the ends of a person’s life, but with government healthcare we’ll have someone determining that maybe grandma has lived long enough and that the quality of her life isn’t worth the extra expense.
If you think I’m wrong? Just look up all the stories about people waiting in line to get a doctor in those socialized medical care countries.
I think the point of the article, which I agree with, is that the regulation in this bill will result in the medical insurance companies going out of business, eventually leading to a single payer system.
If government-run health insurance is as miserable as so many fear, I doubt the insurance companies will have anything to worry about.
My hope is that there’s some sort of “floor” put under health insurance that forces the private insurers to start being competitive and responsive to consumers.
I haven’t noticed any folks refusing to use Medicare and buying their own policies.
Of course, insurance companies do not want to insure anyone that is not healthy.
You don’t have a choice. When you go on SS,
you ARE FORCED INTO MEDICARE! It was not
something that I wanted to do. I now have
supplemental insurance that picks up where
medicare leave off. Years ago I changed doctors to go with my wife’s and he asked one
question: “Does he take any medications?”
When she said “NO, and hasn’t for years”, he
said, “Fine, I’ll take him”.
It’s getting harder and harder for folks to find
a doctor that will admit them to their practice if they only have medicare.
“…..quality of life isn’t worth the extra expense…..”
Maybe it’s not. The reality is that doctors are making this kind of decision all the time. If the science/statistical analysis backs up the call, maybe we should go with the science. (This assumes that the science stays unpoliticized……can you say “Fat-Effing Chance”?)
If the family doesn’t agree, then they have the option of signing over all their property and their first-borns to the doctors and hospitals, to keep granny on the ventilator.
Dirty secret: Most of the time, granny is kept on the ventilator because nobody in the family wants to make the call to “pull the plug”. Mainly because there is always one family member that insists that no (taxpayer/insurer/Medicare) expense be spared, to give cousin Larry from Bumf##k, Ethiopia a chance to fly in, and see them before they pass on.
Clue to the clueless……”Death Panels” already exist. They are called “Doctors” and “Nursing Staff”. For the most part, I don’t have a problem with that.
That’s why everyone needs an Advance Directive. And durable powers of attorney for healthcare. Believe me, hospital staff are thrilled when people have these documents. Doctors and nurses don’t really like being embroiled in family battles over granny’s end-of-life care.
Lots of times Granny is kept on the ventalator because the doctor keeps holding out false hope of a miraculous recovery. Doctors and hospitals get paid for doing things, and once granny dies, here ability to bring money into the system dies with her. As long as she is alive, the doc can continue to do stuff to her, and bill Medicare which just writes the checks.
Add the notion that the family has no financial skin in keeping her on the ventalator and its guaranteed that granny will eat money.
And its not just granny, younger people who are in a permanent vegetative state can cost upwards of $300,000/year to warehouse. But so long as employer insurance and Medicaid covers the bill, the parents have no financial incentive not to hang on waiting for that one in a million shot of recovery.
I wrote a comment that ended up in the ether. Basically said, everyone should have an advance directive.
“….doctor keeps holding out false hope of a miraculous recovery….”
Not my experience. Having had several elderly relatives pass away recently, it’s the family that is hoping for the last second miracle. For the most part, the doctors lay it on the line, and everyone knows what should be done, but in the absence of some kind of “living will” or “advance directive”, there is always someone who is hoping for the “last minute miracle”.
This becomes the default course of treatment, because nobody in the family wants to take responsibility for the decision to “kill granny”
That’s why if you’re a responsible individual,
you fill out the required forms prohibiting any
medical help that requires artifical aids and also the DO NOT RESUSCITATE portion.
Comment by X-GSfixr
2009-12-23 15:02:05
“….doctor keeps holding out false hope of a miraculous recovery….”
Not my experience. Having had several elderly relatives pass away recently, it’s the family that is hoping for the last second miracle. For the most part, the doctors lay it on the line, and everyone knows what should be done, but in the absence of some kind of “living will” or “advance directive”, there is always someone who is hoping for the “last minute miracle”.
This becomes the default course of treatment, because nobody in the family wants to take responsibility for the decision to “kill granny”
———————–
This is exactly my experience, too. When my parents were very sick (cancer), and obviously near the end of their lives, the doctors said/did nothing to encourage additional treatment. My parents already had their advance directives on file, and requested no additional treatment. My mother had been telling me all about her choice (no resuscitation) for many years. It made everything so much easier.
It’s Christmas Time - Remember to Support Ben and the HBB with a Generous Donation!
Reflecting on the widespead public and MSM rejection of any notion that there was anything close to a housing bubble in 2005, 2006, or 2007 -does “groupthink” ever help individuals?
The era of political correctness and the growing acceptance of progressive Government as the key architect of World prosperity and order, represent a dumbing down of the masses into a herd mentality, IMHO. Someone or something is steadily coralling the herd for their own gain and purpose, IMHO.
Cattle, sheep, and chickens tend to get slaughtered after a lifetime of obediently following directions from their masters.
What a long strange trip it’s been. Now cobaltblue is heading back down into the ground of economic metaphysics, hopefully mining some nuggets with the clear light of natural reason.
We bid you all peace and personal success. Over and out.
“…Someone or something is steadily coralling the herd for their own gain and purpose, IMHO.”
“Cattle, sheep, and chickens tend to get slaughtered after a lifetime of obediently following directions from their masters.”
How quickly some forget:
Cheney-Shrub: “…According to then President of the United States, George W. Bush and then Prime Minister of the United Kingdom, Tony Blair, the reasons for the invasion were “to disarm Iraq of weapons of mass destruction (WMD)
“…mining some nuggets”
You see how this “seeps” into the crowds language?
Every one in the world is into “digging” these days, and let me tell ya…it’s one GiNORMOUS hole…
Cobalt,
Hopefully not over and out for you - some of the most valuable and cogent insights I’ve gleaned over the years have come from you…and shared with many others.
Just one year after the near-collapse of the entire global economy, Happy Daze are Hear Again for U.S. Housing!
* DECEMBER 23, 2009, 5:23 A.M. ET
Home Sales, Prices Brighten
BY JAMES R. HAGERTY AND KELLY EVANS
New data on home sales and prices provided fresh signs of a stabilizing housing market, but a continuing flood of foreclosures and the eventual withdrawal of government life support threaten that trend.
The National Association of Realtors said Tuesday that sales of existing homes rose 7.4% in November from October to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 6.54 million units — the highest rate since February 2007. Buoyed by a tax credit for buyers and low interest rates, sales were 44% above November 2008, when fears over bank failures were near their peak.
…
Investors are probably buying about 50% of the low end homes right now.They are specualting on increases in prices once the market stabilizes and the avg joe feels it is safe to buy again.
Yes. We’re right back to the speculative behavior noted at the very peak of the mania. And note how the media is so happy to tell us all about the gains!
I’m also guessing at around 50% speculative purchases. We have a long, long way to go, unfortunately.
I always have to LOL at the whole premise that an increase in sales actually indicates a stabilizing market.
In September 2008 for instance, sales of stock equities started going through the roof, with volume going from about 4 billion shares per day to about 10 billion shares per day.
Was that an indicator of a stabilizing stock market?
(scratches head)
Seems to me there are two things needed for a stable housing market:
1. Robust sales
2. Low inventory (both visible and shadow)
We very much do not have the latter, and therefore very much do not have a stable housing market.
New home sales down…
Result of weak demand? Or lack of supply?
Given the strength of existing home sales, the continuing tax credit, and the current shift that builders are making to smaller homes (meaning that last cycle’s models are generally on the market today), is there any good argument that the issue is weak demand?
A mix, I suspect. After all we’re reaching the point where completions would correspond to houses where permitting/construction started in 2008. And by 2008 the bursting of the bubble was obvious to most.
Homes generally are finished 5-6 months after the permits are pulled. Completions now are for homes started in 2009.
In any event, the data is from when a contract is signed, not closing. Anecdotally, I am aware of several builders who are buying finished lots, but they don’t have anything to sell currently, as they are reworking floorplans, etc., in order to build smaller, cheaper homes.
In other words, they don’t have anything to write a contract on yet.
I think on the new home front, we are in the “retooling” phase.
Well my understanding is that it really depends on the size of the project. Yes, a SFH on land that is already platted goes pretty quick. But a large development or condo tower, especially if ANYONE doesn’t like the zoning can take much longer.
Clearly.
My assumption is that the only homes that are being built today are those on already finished land.
The entitlement processing and buying of raw land (and even finishing land already owned) has pretty much stopped everywhere since it isn’t economical to go through the process.
Builders are buying finished lots for less than the cost of finishing…it’s the only way they can make the deals pencil.
Once those lots have been built on, either a) no new homes will be built, or b) the economics will need to change such that it is economical to go through the process.
Well I don’t think people are starting much on spec. Probably hasn’t been for about a year. I’d guess that some of what is being built is custom work for the actual rich, but that most of the new housing being completed is long-lead time large projects that alread had considerable sunk costs (mostly land acquisition, planning and permitting) by the beginning of 2008.
“Just one year after the near-collapse of the entire global economy, Happy Daze are Hear Again for U.S. Housing!”
Still working on the first cup-o-joe I see.
Just one year after the near-collapse of the entire global economy, Happy Daze are Hear Again for U.S. Housing!
Huh?
November new home sales sink 11 percent
Regardless, Happy and Merry everyone!
Do any others suspect Nov 2009 may represent the highest level of U.S. home sales for the foreseeable future? Or am I just being a pessimistic “gloomster” here?
Indications
Dec. 23, 2009, 7:45 a.m. EST
U.S. stock futures nudge higher, data in focus
By Barbara Kollmeyer, MarketWatch
MADRID (MarketWatch) — U.S. stock futures were trading higher on Wednesday, with more key economic data in focus for investors and stronger overseas markets expected to provide support for a potential fourth straight session of gains.
Futures for the Dow Jones Industrial Average were up 23 points to 10,431, while those for the S&P 500 gained 4.1 points to 1,117.7. Futures for the Nasdaq 100 were up 4.5 points to 1,845.5.
On Tuesday, a positive report on the housing market helped stocks in tallying a third day of gains, with the materials sector pacing the rise. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 50.79 points to 10,464.93, the S&P 500 Index rose 3.97 points to 1,182.02, while the Nasdaq Composite rose 15.01 points to 2,252.67.
November income and spending data are due at 8:30 a.m. and December consumer sentiment and November new-home sales at 10 a.m. All times are Eastern.
Analysts surveyed by MarketWatch are expecting a 0.4% rise in personal income and a 0.7% rise in consumer spending. The December consumer sentiment is expected to come in at a level of 74, while analysts are expecting a rise of 421,000 in new-home sales for November.
…
Man I just feel this stock market is going to crash at any time.there is too much specualtion right now.People are chaing returns.I have never made a dime chasing returns in the long run.The time to buy was in march not now.
I try not to think of it as new homes being sold to happy purchasers. I try to think of it as ferocious (but misguided) ants cleaning up a carcass and when there’s nothing left, they starve to death.
What I feel about the stock market doesn’t really matter IMO the market is almost always smarter than I am
I’m only good at getting out of bubbles like the housing bubble and the tech bubble then I am smarter than the market or in other words the market becomes very stupid.
I was slow and cautous investing in the last run in 2003 off the low of the tech crash cost me money staying away
Just saying…..
I think jobs are a big deal. If there is no job growth, then you may be right. If there are new jobs, I think 2010 will be stronger in terms of numbers of homes sold than 2009.
There will be no job growth.
I lived long enough to see 6 recessions. The job situation after each was worse than the previous one. I see no reason for it to any different this time.
“…to be…”
Gold bugs take heart: The pessimists (like me, for instance) are going to drive the price through the roof!
Mark Hulbert
Dec. 23, 2009, 1:53 a.m. EST
Building a wall of worry
Commentary: Sentiment picture for gold is rapidly improving
By Mark Hulbert, MarketWatch
ANNANDALE, Va. (MarketWatch) - Finally, we’re getting somewhere.
After first responding to gold’s recent correction by stubbornly remaining bullish, and then, as that correction gathered steam, only begrudgingly walking towards the exits, the gold timers I monitor are finally throwing in the towel.
This is what contrarians have been waiting for. Though a contrarian buy signal is not quite yet at hand, a few more days of what we’ve seen earlier this week is all that it would take to do the trick.
…
They are hiring tweekers to swirl cash4 gold signs up here in northern ca.You find the most jacked up toothless wonder and put a sign in their hands and they just nut up.
ROFLMAO - those words put an image in my head that will stay there all day!
Presumably then if sign twirlers offering homes for sale is a sign of a housing bubble, then sign twirlers offering dollars for sale indicates a dollar bubble - right?
Seems to me like a good time to be get out of cash (and maybe into gold).
Here is a headline you are unlikely to see in the U.S. MSM financial press. Let’s just say not everyone is convinced that the Fed will stay ahead of the curve on burgeoning inflation pressures during the recovery that is currently underway. It is worth noting that John Paulson has already made a large fortune by correctly betting on the housing crash. Some times the bets that seem most obvious pan out surprisingly well!
My question for readers here to consider: If the hedge fund managers’ bet that l-t T-bond yields are headed back up to the 7-8 percent range proves accurate, what will happen to U.S. housing demand, especially in the $500K+ Jumbo-priced range?
The Financial Times
Top hedge funds bet on big rise in yields
By Henny Sender in New York
Published: December 22 2009 23:21 | Last updated: December 22 2009 23:21
The recent rise in long-term US interest rates comes as good news for several leading hedge fund managers, including John Paulson, who have positioned their trading books to benefit from higher yields on US Treasury securities.
Mr Paulson, who made big gains earlier this decade by betting against the subprime mortgage market and whose firm, Paulson & Co, manages $33bn, has said he believes that government stimulus efforts would inevitably lead to higher inflation and a corresponding rise in rates.
“It will be difficult for the government to withdraw the economic stimulus,” Mr Paulson said in a speech. “An increase in the monetary base leads to an increase in the money supply, which leads to inflation.”
Bond prices fall as yields rise, and Mr Paulson told the Financial Times last week that he has been hoping to benefit in the Treasury market by buying options that would become profitable if rates headed higher. TPG-Axon’s Dinakar Singh has been making similar options trades, according to a person familiar with the matter.
Julian Robertson, the hedge fund manager, has pursued a related strategy, hoping to benefit from a bigger difference between short-term and long-term interest rates, known as a steeper yield curve, a person familiar with his trades said.
The yield on the 10-year Treasury, which hit a crisis low of 2.055 per cent last year, has moved from 3.2 per cent last month to 3.75 per cent on Tuesday.
Hedge fund managers, however, have been hesitant to engage in short sales of Treasury bonds to profit from the rising yields – and falling prices – because of the Federal Reserve’s heavy involvement in the market. This has led some to buy options – dubbed “high strike receivers” – that would enable them to profit from sharply higher Treasury yields, hedge fund managers say. These trades, which are relatively cheap to execute because they are so out of the money, are based on the thesis that yields could hit 7 or 8 per cent.
…
Professor Bear’s dumb predictions for the direction of asset price adjustments if the predicted 7-8 pct l-t T-bond yields materialize:
Dollar = up
l-t Treasurys = down
U.S. Housing = down
U.S. Stocks = down
PMs = down
FOREX (dollar rival currencies) = down
(Shudder…)
Shudder is right. Do you really think the government can afford that?
For reference - when interest rates went to 8% in the 1980’s, the debt was 50% of GDP, so interest payments were about 3% of GDP. By the end of about next year, the debt will be 100% of GDP, so interest would be 6% of GDP.
In both cases government revenue is about 17% of GDP.
So in the 1980’s interest expense was about 15% of government revenue. Now it would be above 30% of government revenue.
Do you really think the dollar would be up in such a scenario?
P.S. Noting also that government revenue projections in this case are optimistic - assuming a ramping up. In the case of stocks being down however, government revenue will also be down, given that a very large portion of it is based on capital gains tax.
(which is why it was down so heavily in early 2009, primarily due to the stock market crash)
Excellent point, packman & a cornerstone of the gold argument.
US Deficit Explodes despite budget cutting:
Oil UP
Food UP
Unemployment UP
Foreclosures UP
More money printing by the Fed & ?bankruptcy of the states
Precious Metals & Sound Foreign Currencies (if one exists) UP
It will be interesting to see how it unfolds, I’m not optimistic our society can make the hard decision to become fiscally sound.
Professor Bear’s dumb predictions for the direction of asset price adjustments if the predicted 7-8 pct l-t T-bond yields materialize:
Dollar = up
l-t Treasurys = down
U.S. Housing = down
U.S. Stocks = down
PMs = down
FOREX (dollar rival currencies) = down
——————————————————————————–
maybe stocks not down as much as treasuries
Comment by Professor Bear
2009-12-23 07:21:58
Professor Bear’s dumb predictions for the direction of asset price adjustments if the predicted 7-8 pct l-t T-bond yields materialize:
Dollar = up
l-t Treasurys = down
U.S. Housing = down
U.S. Stocks = down
PMs = down
FOREX (dollar rival currencies) = down
(Shudder…)
————————-
This is what I’ve recently positioned us for. Not diversified at this point, which makes me very, very nervous.
“…are headed back up to the 7-8 percent range proves accurate, what will happen to U.S. housing demand, especially in the $500K+ Jumbo-priced range?”
How do you “slow down” a herd of $650,000 mortgages?
answer: With 14+% mortgage interest rates
Barack Obama Campaign Promise No. 512:
“And, absolutely, we need earmark reform. And when I’m president, I will go line by line to make sure that we are not spending money unwisely.”
Sources: The first presidential debate, Sept. 26, 2008
Health Care Reform, Earmark Edition
By Mike Lillis 12/22/09 12:41 PM
It’s the first rule of congressional lawmaking: Never miss an opportunity to grab everything you can for your constituents, even if it comes at the expense of everyone else.
That’s certainly been the case in the Senate’s health care reform bill, where it wasn’t just the moderate holdouts who successfully secured enormous earmarks for their states. Here’s the emerging list:
(1) Ben Nelson (D-Neb.): Making a joke of the earlier claim that his vote is “not for sale,” the Nebraska Democrat won three huge concessions for his state in the Senate bill: $100 million in extra Medicaid funds; an annual fee exemption for some Nebraska-based insurance companies; and another carve-out exempting some physician-owned hospitals in the state from new restrictions.
(2) Mary Landrieu (D-La.): Senate leaders secured her support with $300 million in new Medicaid funding for Louisiana.
(3) Max Baucus (D-Mont.): The Finance Committee chairman has long fought for federal funding surrounding an asbestos mine in Libby, Mont., The New York Times pointed out over the weekend. The health reform bill, most of which Baucus and his staff wrote, fulfilled his wish, including a provision to expand Medicare coverage to victims living near the mine.
(4) Bill Nelson (D-Fla.): Representing a state chock-full of seniors, the Florida Democrat has been concerned about the proposed cuts to the Medicare Advantage program, under which the government pays private insurers to cover Medicare beneficiaries. The result? Three counties in south Florida are exempt from the cuts.
(5) Chris Dodd (D-Conn.): Many senators have been scratching their heads in recent days trying to figure out who would benefit from a $100 million provision to build a new university-affiliated hospital. Turns out that Dodd, who ushered the health reform bill through the Senate HELP Committee in the absence of the late Sen. Edward Kennedy (D-Mass.), is eyeing the funding for UConn.
(6) Bernie Sanders (D-Vt.) : The Vermont Independent had threatened to oppose the bill if it lacked a strong public insurance option. Instead, Senate leaders agreed to Sanders’ request for additional money for community health centers ($10 billion more, to be exact). Vermont was also among the handful of states to win extra federal Medicaid funding.
This, of course, is nothing new. As David Axlerod told CNN’s “State of the Union” over the weekend, “Every senator uses whatever leverage they have to help their states. That’s the way it has been. That’s the way it will always be.”
And who is screwed? New York as always.
Chuck Schumer cut that deal. He got New York’s share of the national pie by bailing out Wall Street. Not an investment banker, senior citizen, or member of a public employee union or the institutional health care industry? Then you don’t count for much in New York.
Which is why I meet a LOT of ex New Yorkers here.
And every single one of them mentions how the state is being completely gutted of jobs.
“Week-to-week mortgage applications drop 10.7%: MBA”
-refinance existing home loans fell 10.1%.
-The week-to-week volume of applications for mortgages to purchase homes dropped as well, down a seasonally adjusted 11.6%.
Hehh hehh hehh hehhh heh.
“Hehh hehh hehh hehhh heh.”
Was that a Beavis and Butthead laugh I just ‘heard’?
Yeah! hmmmm heh hmmmm heh.
This of course is due to treasury yields and mortgage rates rising. However it’s while the Fed is keeping their own rates at 0-0.25%. Just imagine what’ll happen when (if) the Fed actually starts raising rates.
Luke, it’s me. Your father. George W Bush.
http://www.boston.com/business/ticker/2009/12/darth_vader_com.html
Mr. Cole will have to convene a Jedi council with Master Yoda over at the Main Street bowling alley…
I KNEW IT! THIS EXPLAINS EVERYTHING!
Again with the amnesty for illegals?
http://www.cnsnews.com/news/article/57133
They use that word but I don’t they know what it means.
The article outlines a more streamlined path, but “…registering, paying a fine, passing a criminal background check, fully paying all taxes and learning English” doesn’t sound like amnesty, just a more streamlined immigration process.
Don’t get me wrong, I’m AGAINST amnesty.
For anyone who is interested, packman has a very insightful post on yesterday’s bits bucket based on an analogy between a housing-dependent economy and a drug-dependent addict. Nicely struck!
Now I am off with the family to MIL’s house for a week … wish me luck
Be safe Mr. Bear, and wear those 4-D glasses that let you see all the really, really, really small germs flying around the room…
“Now I am off with the family to MIL’s house for a week … wish me luck…”
Do you sneak off to the bathroom, or the backyard for a quick snort off your flask? LOL!
Good luck, and Merry Christmas to you and your family, PB.
Dear HBBers, I need your help to understand what is happening in this market. I was approved by bank to buy a house and contacted the listing agent in regard to get information and make an appointment to go to see the house. He told me that he has an offer on that house by an investor /cash buyer who is planning to turn that house back to the market to sell it. In L.A.Times last week I read that there is 1700000 foreclosures in this country and in that particular city there is 350 foreclosures, but only few houses are on the market for sale. Isn’t it obvious market manipulation? Madam Applgate that is the head of Real estate agents in Califurnia is happy, she announced prices on houses are up $60000 for last 7 months. I’m just an immigrant and have no knowledge of the securities laws but it seems to me that there should be a law against this humongous fraud that is taking place. I want to buy a house in open market on its real market value, same way as Mr. Buffet buys his stocks, but it seems our government is against it. Can you explain to me what are my options, please, ? Can I or group of buyers file a class action suit on bases of security fraud Fed or Banks…? I don’t want to wait another 6 years till this coming bubble blow this country away…
You raise a really good point gal.the market is obviously being manipulated.The gov is doing all it can to prop up house prices.
As fas as violating the law I’m not sure.The banks are holding back inventory but I am not sure what kind of law that would violate.You are basically up against the govt trying to save housing and the economy.With FHA loans @ 3.5 down payments and tax credits people are really using leverage right now to buy.
Isn’t “The banks are holding back inventory” means “cornering the market”? If people do it in other financial markets, they go to jail. Result of every market manipulation is another financial crash in my opinion.
Not putting an item up for sale is not the same as cornering the market.
Then you RENT and be happy about it. Just don’t buy a lot of stuff. So if you have to move it wont be a big problem
Live cheap and light
“…He told me that he has an offer on that house by an investor /cash buyer who is planning to turn that house back to the market to sell it.”
Sorry Mr. Bear…
Ask him if the “1st competitor’s” name is eddie or Haskell
“I’m just an immigrant and have no knowledge of the securities laws…”
Here’s the standard rule: “they win, you lose” …it’s actually worse odds then betting against the house in Vegas.
We tend to think, back in Soviet Union, that the capitalist open market really works, but it seems to me that it works only for Rothschild, Rockfellers families who own the Federal Bank and dictate their rules in every economic decisions and keep most of this countries citizens as slaves as the people around the world. Viv la Democracy…
No insult intended, but… “duh.”
Yes, I see it in my n’hood. A bunch of empty houses with overgrown yards but no For Sale sign. The city posts some “nastigrams” on the door from time to time due to code violations. Banks still have to pay the carrying costs (taxes, upkeep, maybe insurance?), nothing a taxpayer funded bailout couldn’t fix. I would thing one day that shadow inventory has to come back on the market. Tomorrow, next month, next year, never? Especially disturbing if you take into account that we currently have more foreclosures than we ever had. So this shadow inventory is still building, will the damn hold? For how long? What will be the eventual outcome be? More bailouts, more recession? I have a hard time understanding this from an economic point of view as well as an accounting point of view. The most be terrible losses lurking in some of balance sheet entities. Can Bernanke’s printing press fix all of the above? Will the next bubble bailout the last bubble?
I wish I had the answer.
No choice but to keep waiting, in my view. They’ll have to come to you eventually.
If you like the house, keep an eye on its records, and see if you can make the investor take a loss next year.
(Note: Cynical viewpoint to follow)
There is no “free market” in housing. It stopped being one when the government started giving out mortgage interest and personal property tax deductions on the 1040. Only the degree of market intervention has varied.
Government at all levels, banks, insurance companies, homebuilders and their suppliers, etc, etc, would be screwed if prices were allowed to correct the way they should. Too many people believe that Armageddon will occur, if prices fall to reflect supply vs.demand. They might even be right; in this case, owning a house will be seen as a major liability. So, all kinds of props are being used to keep real estate prices high.
Will gravity eventually win? Your guess is as good as mine. At this point, I’m not betting on it happening in my relatively short remaining lifespan.
There are laws against this behavior. Good luck getting them enforced.
We are turning into a Banana Republic, without the bananas.
It stopped being one when the government started giving out mortgage interest and personal property tax deductions on the 1040.
One point of correction - I don’t believe the mortgage interest deduction was ever “started” actually. At least from what I remember reading - when income taxes were first introduced (in 1913) all interest was tax deductible. Over time other forms of interest have been removed as deductions - e.g. credit cards in 1986; with only only mortgage interest remaining (and maybe some others not as commonly-used; not sure what off the top of my head).
Not sure about property tax though.
Nevertheless you’re right about the housing market never really having been a free market. There have always been many influencing factors implemented by the government and/or Fed monopoly, starting with interest rates.
In the beginning, there was government, who imposed taxes of various kinds to fund operations reserved for the government (enforcing laws, blowing stuff up).
Then government found that they could influence behavior by judicious use/modification/manipulation of the tax code. And if some is good, more must be better.
Business and high-value individuals then found that they could keep more of their money by lobbying/convincing their representatives that changing the tax code to the individuals benefit would also be beneficial to the representative.
This has been partially offset by various groups that think will get free money, depending on who they vote for.
This is all too depressing……..time to watch the latest Maury “Who’s the Daddy” episode……..
Dear X-GSfixr, thank you for the honest but “cynical” answer. I have to say that taking the road on to “turning into a Banana Republic, without the bananas” I guess started somewhere around 15 years back and it seems there is no way back, unless people will wake up…
Merry Christmas and Happy New Year to every HBBer and everybody around the World…
It started in the 1980s. “Greed is good” was the mantra on Wall St. Outsourcing and then offshoring jobs, corporate raiding and then gutting the acquisitions, repeal of many consumer protection laws… the list is long.
You can google it.
Dear X-GSfixr thank you for being honest but “cynical”. I think the road into “turning into a Banana Republic, without the bananas” started years back with “economic globalization”, when 75% of middle class joined poor and 25% remained close to it. It seems to me there is no way back, unlees people in this country will wake up some day…
I wish all the HBBers Merry Christmas and Happy new year …
Merry Christmas and Happy New Year to you, gal!
Yes, the housing market is being severely manipulated, and it’s frustrating to all of us. No, there’s probably nothing we can do about it, because those of us who want to see realistic housing prices comprise a very small minority of the voting public.
Ain’t gonna happen except with time.
Pull up a chair and get the popcorn ready. This is going to be a long, slow grind, IMHO.
Dear X-GSfixr, thank you for being honest and “cinical”. I think the road on “turning into a Banana Republic, without bananas” started two decades back, when “economic globalization” got in to full force and 75% of middle class of this country joined POOR and 25% remained … Waiting For GODO… It seems to me that there is no way back, unless people of this country will wake up some they…
I wish all HBBers Merry Christmas and Happy New Year…
Sorry guys…
I’d like to say that it’s market manipulation, but I don’t think it is.
Market value is “willing buyer/willing seller”. The owners of the real estate think that the prices offered by buyers are too low (being far below replacement cost), so they don’t want to sell.
The best thing you can do is make a written offer to the listing agent on the house. To my understanding they are required by law to present that written offer to the seller.
Good luck.
The “sellers” are the banks, and the banks have been told to keep inventory off the market in order to “stabilize” (read: artificially inflate) housing prices. This is price fixing, and it should definitely be illegal.
I saw Avatar. The movie was beautiful but the plot was silly and simplistic. Still, I “got” why everyone was applauding at the end - the “powers that be” are corrupt and lie. People are “alienated” and suspect that national governments across the world are indistinguishably linked to large corporations and vice-versa.
People resent powerlessness, are expected to spend a life in indebtedness, die in the causes expounded by what Eisenhower called the “military-industrial complex”, and have no influence or hope.
Avatar is calling for a violent, bloody revolution. The movie goes back to the Zulu Wars with the British in Africa during the 1800’s. Of course, James Cameron doesn’t understand what a machine gun is. The Zulu lost and died by the thousands in the process.
Roidy
P.S. I was saddened that my beloved USMC was trashed in this movie.
Of course, James Cameron doesn’t understand what a machine gun is.
I guess you’ve never seen Aliens.
Aliens proves my point. Cameron’s machine guns are props.
Roidy
Actually, they were Thompson SMGs mated to Remington 870s. Presumably blank firers but…
http://www.arniesairsoft.co.uk/projects/aliens/m41.htm
Someone asked me to this movie last night but I passed. Thanks for the review I think I’ll wait til Sherlock comes out.
Still, I “got” why everyone was applauding at the end - the “powers that be” are corrupt and lie. People are “alienated” and suspect that…”
…IBM & Microsoft will destroy Apple and “Rule-the-PC-World”
There were other themes in the movie that are worth exploring. I particularly liked the philosophical undertone that it is human to search constantly for “more” (the unobtainium) at any cost. There is some virtue to suffice and be content with what is. Another obvious theme is the US treatment of the native americans. Finally, I liked the concept that the “web of life” was operationalized into a real network (as yet undiscovered). We have more to learn.
The movie-making was brilliant as well. The clever mix between CGI and real life is still spinning in my head. I really felt immersed. Plus Cameron made an entire world. I give the man credit for writing the screenplay. It’s a good film.
Totally OT, but just saw the film “In Bruges” on either HBO or IFC, and it was one of my favorites for the year. Not at all what I expected: A darkly funny buddy movie (2 hit men on the lam) with amazing imagery of Bruges.
TTT sez jobs by spring! Do these guys have b*lls or what?!
I still maintain that a dangerous game of managing wider social expectations is underway. Sure, it’s S.O.P. for Uncle Sam - jawbone and extend & pretend - but this is not some far flung war that J6P is only marginally engaged with - they’re dealing with J6P’s dreams here.
TTT has crystal balls of steel.
There is a new condo / town house complex opening just up the street from my work place. This is right in the middle of a bleak industrial area just south of downtown Seattle. The complex will have as it’s neighbors a large methadone clinic, a large day labor facility, a toxic waste processing plant, and a huge transit bus parking area, all on the same block. Right behind the row of townhouses, really in the back yard, is the elevated I-5 freeway which has a massive hobo camp underneath extending for about a mile. I can just see the signs: “Edgy urban lofts starting in the upper $400s ! “
Didn’t they just have a marginally successful auction of a bunch of condo’s on Queen Anne Hill? Seems to me I read that the selling prices were 60% to 70% of the original listing prices.
My daughter is chomping at the bit to buy a Condo in the Queen Anne area, and I am doing everything I can do (short of sending her away for a year) to keep her from making that mistake.
The REIC really infected the single woman demographic with the condo bug, didn’t they? My boss just talked his daughter in DC out of one, and my two neices in TX require periodic pep talks to stay away for now.
During the boom the local paper periodically ran stories featuring single women buying condos in the city and in far flung suburbs. The articles stressed the independence theme but were thinly veiled in their gender bias as “interior decorating” often seeped into rationale for buying. It seems that in their quest for greater personal freedom these young women are instead walking into a debt trap.
It was specifically targeted. It really pushed the nesting urge buttons hard. And there was nothing to offset the psy-ops.
DO NOT buy a condo in the DC area for at least years!!!!
Firstr Fed in Santa Monica was just taken over by the Fed. They specialized in financing property for women and minorities. Oh yes, they also wrote massive ammts of Alt-A and stated income loans.
Infuriating article in Today’s Times
Obama’s constituents have stolen $500 Million from We, the Taxpayers, in the form of fraudulent deductions for “first time home buyers”
Thousands May Be Incorrectly Using Stimulus Tax Breaks
Of course, the Taxpaying Class wasn’t eligible for these breaks. This money is being stolen by the people who would whine “Save Main Street, Not Wall Street”. But look at the bias in the Times’ lede:
Thousands of American taxpayers incorrectly claimed more than $500 million in tax benefits under the Obama administration’s tax break for first-time home buyers, a government watchdog report said Tuesday.
“…taxpayers incorrectly…”? How about “…freeloaders fraudulently…”?
How do they know? Nobody can have filed their 2009 tax return yet as the year is not over.
They must be talking about last year’s plan which was really a interest free loan, not the tax credit passed in Feb ‘09.
This must be a “warning” to those who will be filing next year.
Chill, dude…….as long as people bought houses, it’s all good.
Just less competition for me when either:
-House prices collapse, or
-Employers have to pay a premium to hire me, because I am portable, and the rest of the employee pool is anchored to the dead weight of a house, and can’t move, or
-Hubby moves 1000 miles away, but has to leave the Trophy Wife at home, because he can’t sell the house…….Trophy Wife gets lonely. “X-GSfixer changes his name to “FWB-fixr”, or “Mil#-fixr” (At least that’s how Penthouse Letters says it works
)
“As of July 25, 73,799 taxpayers had incorrectly claimed $504 million in credits in the program for first-time home buyers.
The I.R.S. did not comment on the 17-page report. The inspector general for tax administration said that it was conducting further analysis to determine how much was being improperly claimed in each tax benefit category.
The watchdog agency also said Tuesday in a separate report that an I.R.S. program that has issued more than 14 million taxpayer identification numbers to immigrants is plagued with fraud that costs the government billions of dollars in improper tax refunds.
The report found that nearly 70 percent of such numbers should not have been issued because their applicants provided murky documentation. The numbers, called individual taxpayer identification numbers, are typically used by immigrants who are not American citizens or by permanent residents who have entered the United States legally…”
And my Christmas rant is here…
Remember folks, Christmas is about giving right? Well, actually it’s more about getting you to spend. Remember no one will love you and you will die alone in an unremembered grave unless you spend like a drunken gambler at the craps table.
I still haven’t convinced the wife that all this shopping crap is just evil BS thrown on us my the media. But I’m still working on her.
Christmas is about celebrating God’s love for us and you don’t need to give a single gift.
Or else it’s about solstice which would mean the return of the light. So, kind of celebrating that we are in the depths of winter but headed tword spring. Also it did help with timing the planting of crops.
So, just like last year. All this media crap about giving is just the dual of receiving. As long as you get someone to shop.
Take care all and have a merry healthcare debate!
Even you Exeter.
We got tired of all the stuff within my family and agreed to just send presents to our parents and each other’s kids.
The kids are getting older, so this year everyone just wanted gift cards.
But those present problems, such as forcing people to spend more to use up the balance and the possiblity of retailer bankrputcy, so the next logical step is cash.
At that point it will seem foolish to send money in two directions, so perhaps whoever plans on more will just send the net.
Want an idea?
Try giving a series of good, overly-long foot massages. That’s better than most consumable goods, and great for cementing those personal relationships.
I just got a new phone number for my business and I get about 30 calls a day from a collection agency on it. Apparently the person who had it before me was a deadbeat.
I’ve already had the number printed on business cards, etc, so now I’ll have to change the number and reprint my cards–at my expense.
But I leaned an interesting thing, trying to complain to the FTC and the FCC, and my local rep:
If I were an ACTUAL DEADBEAT, there are laws to help me! I can order them to stop calling me and they will, or risk fine. But because I’m not an actual deadbeat, and they’re simply calling me by mistake, there’s no government agency backed by law that can help me.
This happened to one of the new phones numbers we got where I work. Collectors demanded to speak to someone named Wanda.
It didn’t matter that I told them Wanda wasn’t there, that they must have the wrong number, etc; They weren’t buying any of it.
Soooo… I surrendered. I still told callers Wanda wasn’t there but offered to take messages if she ever showed up.
That’s when the phone really began to ring off the hook. The word must have gotten around among collectors that the ever-elusive deadbeat Wanda had finally been located and all they had to do to talk with her was to somehow get past me screening her calls.
Great fun!
I’m reminded of the story of the guy who’s number was posted as the one for a hotel. He kept getting calls and the hotel refused to do anything about it, until he started accepting reservations. People showing up at the hotel and complaining about lost reservations finally got some action out of them.
“Who is it?”
“It’s Dave, man….let me in”
“Dave’s not here…”
Reuven,
That nails it. If I am rich, I buy what I need. Housing, autos, healthcare no problemo. If I am poor, I can get what I want. Housing, public transportation, healthcare.
It’s the middle class that pays and pays and gets squeezed and squeezed.
I’m thinking of taking my family “off grid” like Mrs. Meadows and I lived in the 70’s. With a little effort and cunning it’s possible to live very well at the bottom of the socioeconomic pile. It does have to be a rural lifestyle, however.
I’ve discussed this with young people we harbor who are temporarily homeless and broke…. I’ve often been broke but I’ve never felt “poor”. Economic security is overrated. Self-sufficiency is underrated and misunderstood.
WASHINGTON (AP) — Sales of new homes plunged unexpectedly last month to the lowest level since April, a sign the housing market recovery will be rocky and heavily dependent on the generosity of Uncle Sam.
The 11 percent slump from October’s pace shows that consumers are taking their time following an extension of a deadline for first-time buyers to qualify for a tax credit. The incentive was set to expire at the end of November, but Congress pushed back the date to April 30 and expanded the program to include current homeowners who relocate.
“They don’t have to act today,” said David Crowe, chief economist at the National Association of Home Builders, who called the results “pretty awful.”
New home sales data, released Wednesday, are a better indicator of future real estate activity than sales of previously occupied homes, but capture a smaller slice of the market. The new home figures tally sales agreements signed in November, while home resale numbers reflect contracts signed over the summer that were completed the same month.
A separate report from the department showed sales of newly built single-family homes unexpectedly dropped 11.3 percent last month to a 355,000 unit annual rate. Financial markets had expected new home sales to increase to 440,000 units.
Analysts blamed the drop on the expectation that a popular tax credit for first-time home buyers would expire at the end of November. New home sales are counted after a contract is signed, but closing on a contract usually takes 30 to 60 days more. The credit has since been extended and expanded and analysts expect sales to resume their upward trend in coming months.
Could it be that the tax credit suckered in all the available suckers early on and now there is no one who is willing to buy. In order to keep the machine going they needed to increase the tax credit. Existing home sales should plunge over the next month or two based on this data.
Remember HBBers, that ‘New Home Sales’ are only offers not closed deals. Divide by 2 unless you went to a public screwel for real closings. You won’t be far off. hahahahaha
I am back to sitting on my hands and my cash after submitting offers to the bank on a nearby house.
To briefly recap, house sold for $812, 000 in 2006. In 2000, the house sold for ~$465,000 and the buyer put I am guessing $150,000 into the house (new kitchen, roof over the pool, new roof on the house, new windows, etc). Hard not to get a little excited when things are approaching 1/2 price.
The bank had it listed for ~$550,000 and I offered $325,000 a couple of months ago. The bank must have been “insulted” with my low offer because they didn’t counter. A couple of weeks ago, the house listing price dropped to $458,000 and I offered $375,000. Bank countered with $450,000 and I countered with $390,000. All the offerers were cash offers. Bank accepted the “other” offer and I don’t know how much it was. Frankly, I don’t care how much it was because $390,000 was more than I wanted to pay.
What held me back? A few things:
1. House was built in 1969 and had the orginal floor plan. Not an open floor plan with large kitchen and great room that I prefer.
2. Bathrooms were still of the 1969 vintage and would need a complete re-do. Probably $20,000 or more to do it right.
3. I don’t know if I want the maintanence of a pool. Had the pool in AZ and got tired of taking care of it and it doesn’t make much sense to have one here in OR.
4. Sure is nice just sending email out for any item that needs to be fixed here at the rental.
5. I am trying to patiently wait for the govt. meddling to end. Hey, I can hope that mortgage rates go up and the home buying subsidies are gone by end of April.
6. I think we are in the early stages of large price drops on the higher end properties here in OR and that patience will pay off. For example, a brand new house on 5 acres listed at $1,050,000 has now been taken over by the bank and is now $655,000. I can see it selling for a lot lower.
Bottom line, I am 44 years old and I feel that I have to be cautious in all this housing stuff from here on out. I can’t afford to lose $200k or more at this stage of life because it is very hard to make up. I have been fortunate enough to hold a steady job through this recession, but I think we have a looong way to go to the bottom. I don’t want to get caught unprepared. I think housing will be like some of the tech stocks I follow - Microsoft, Dell, Intel - doing absolutely nothing for the past 9 years. Intel, for example, was around $70 in middle of 2000 and now is around $20 9 years after the peak. I think that housing will follow the same pattern and in 10 years I don’t want a $400k house worth $100k (or less).
“I can’t afford to lose $200k or more at this stage of life…”
Shoot, unless you’re one of the HBB’s resident high rollers (we all know their names) - $2k is too much to lose nowadays!
“I can’t afford to lose $200k or more at this stage of life…”
Shoot, unless you’re one of the HBB’s resident high rollers (we all know their names) - $2k is too much to lose nowadays!
—————————————————————
Not according to the specuvators.
I have a colleague that is heavily invested into RE – bought his primary residence at the top in 2006 and has been keeping on doubling down since then, buying investment properties that he rents at negative cash flow and waiting for the market to rocket up and make him fabulously rich.
When I tell him that it is very dangerous to bet everything on RE at his age (he is 55), he just shrugs and says: “What you are gona do? Worst case scenario I will lose 100 or 200k.”
To give you an example: he bought a 2 bedroom condo in NW suburb of Chicago last year for 180k, which according to him and his realtor was a steal. Well, last month a similar condo in the same building went for 90k. You would think that such a steep loss would make him think twice about his investment strategy, but you would be wrong. He just regretted that he did not win the 90k condo (he bid for it 120k, but the other offer was all cash) and he is actively looking to buy another one.
The specuvators out there think that this downturn will end in a year or two and then we will be back to the races.
There is so much more pain to come before this is over. I would say not before 2014 at earliest for Chicago in particular.
Wow! Which NW suburb? Because there’s a LOT of inventory out that way.
Irrespective of your age or how wonderful the house is, $325K is ALOT of $$$ for shelter. It makes no nevermind if you have the cash but I’m confortable in saying that if you execute decisions like this one, you won’t have to worry about saving cash because it will be gone.
Exeter,
You are more than right and I appreciate the reminder of the real reality of things. $325,000 for shelter that is flat to depreciating would be a sizeable amount of my net worth. I am trying to get over the notion that real estate may go up some day. I got spoiled over my AZ home and making some money on it. Hard not to remember the good ol’ days when everyone (including me) thought we were rich because of our houses.
Must resist temptation - but am getting weaker as the price drops in 1/2 on million dollar homes.
Good discipline. I agree with your point #6. People fail to realize that the average size of Option ARM loans are significantly higher than the average size of subprime loans (I saw a $500k number as the average for Option ARMs…ouch).
That said, seems like the bank had an orderly process to find the market price for their asset. I nice departure from either a) holding the house off the market or b) stupidly squandering bank equity (and thus taxpayer equity) by selling the asset for next to nothing in an auction to only all-cash buyers, and letting them make 20-30% in a month.
AZtoORtoCOtoOR,
I think you are making the right decision. Most importantly, you should wait to see what next year brings. Right now, there is so much investor activity that you are competing with, and inventory is being kept artificially low. Then, there are the ultra-low interest rates… This is NOT a good market to buy in, IMHO.
Some “experts” are calling for a 20% increase in equities for 2010 and I’ve just got to laugh. In the worst economy this country has seen in over 70 years, the stock market continues to rocket up. How is this possible? I can answer my own question as I know it’s due to excess liquidity in the system, but I just don’t see how this can continue with increasing unemployment, and less demand for everything aside from food and the most basic of essentials. I do not see any “green shoots”, and everyone I know agrees that things are still terrible. Oil is parked at a ridiculous price given demand, and it all seems like those in charge can just dictate prices for everything, like the “market” doesn’t set prices anymore. I guess those in charge ARE the market. We’re just little peons shopping at the company store.
don’t you realize, we don’t have to recognize losses anymore.
profits are up, up , up to the moon!
losses pose systemic risk. they have been abolished by TTT.
Unemployment won’t be increasing throughout 2010. I think a 20% rise is not out of the question, but it won’t be based on the economy being fundamentally fixed. I think it will be based on false euphoria as we bounce off the bottom in terms of jobs, etc. Credit markets will still be righting themselves.
I moved my kids 529 plans from cash to “aggressive” in Q1 09. If the Dow gets up to 12-13k, I’m going back to cash.
I’m not generally a market timer, but I don’t see credit markets being fixed fast enough to keep any bounce up in employment numbers sustainable. At the end of the day, I have another 15+ years before college, so if it runs up even more because the recovery WAS sustained, I have time to make up the lost opportunity and I’ll make more money elsewhere…
Be VERY careful with state controlled pre-paid college tuition invenstment plans.
I decided to move back to Vegas. I looked at some condoze. Then I had a flash of sanity and decided to rent.
I’ve long grown weary of reports of a-holes stripping foreclosed houses. Anyone who vandalizes, takes that which is not theirs belongs in the poky no excuses. I’m sick of these cry baby, opportunist, thieving cockroaches.
Don’t forget the priest that said it’s ok to shoplift this week !!!
Ford agrees terms of Volvo sale to Geely.
HONG KONG (MarketWatch) — Ford Motor Co. /quotes/comstock/13*!f/quotes/nls/f (F 10.03, -0.06, -0.62%) said Wednesday all substantive commercial terms relating to the sale of its Volvo unit to Zhejiang Geely Holding Group /quotes/comstock/22h!e:175 (HK:175 3.98, +0.27, +7.28%) have been settled and that it expects to finalize the agreement by the end of the first quarter of 2010. The U.S. automaker said in a statement Wednesday details such as financing and government approval need to be worked out before the final agreement is signed.
December 23, 1913. The U.S. Congress passes the legislation creating a new banking cartel to be known as the “Federal Reserve System,” then hopped the trains for home. A few legislators thought it was a huge mistake to give up Congressional management of money (empowered by the Constitution) and put it into the hands of private bankers.
Today the Fed is 96.
It has taken the Fed almost a century to drive the purchasing power of the U.S. dollar down to less than a nickel. At the present rate the Fed may finish it off before its 100th anniversary.
“This is a deterrence to other people who want their 30 seconds of fame,”
Jail for “balloon boy” parents:
By John Ingold The Denver Post
Sir Greenisspent had 21 years of fame…what’s his punishment gonna be?
Tweedy Bird: “oh, he’s a BAD puddycat! GRRrrrrrrrrrraaaaaaaaaaaannnnnnnnnnny he’s fooling with my cage again!”
CRE
two items in todays Wall St J:
1. An index compiled by Moodys shows that CRE prices are down 44% from the 2007 peak…they are almost to 2000 values. The index is based on repeat sales of the same properties across the US.
2. An REIT bought a distressed (from AIG) nice 235,000 sf office building for $44sf. That type of building went for $200 sf at peak. This REIT has just leased it to Samsung for $22sf…well below the #31 standard rate. In addition Samsung got $40sf in tenant improvementswell abovethe $30sf standard.
Uh Uh I just read the rest of the article. As part of the rental deal the REIT will redo the restrooms…including granite countertops.
What 2008 was to the housing and financial markets and 2009 was to the job market, 2010 will be for commercial real estate. Late that year and into 2011, it’s the turn of state and local government.
Economist, what local governments will be least impacted? I will be relocating in 2010.
Thank you.
So, if I get this right, the buyer paid $44 per foot, added in $40psf in TIs, then probably paid a leasing commission (say to be conservative $10). Let’s say the lease is gross, not net, so there are expenses the landlord has, let’s say, $9 annually.
So they are getting net income of $13 per foot per year on an investment of $94 per foot, or about a 14% unleveraged yield.
Seems like a fantastic buy to me…
I “nominated”: Ben Jones… Truth-Slayer & Trout-Slayer!
1. Innosight’s Disruptor of the Decade
We are looking for nominations for the “Disruptor of the Decade.” Based on user nominations we will develop a short list of candidates, which will be ranked by individuals and expert panelists.
1. Which companies do you think have done the best job of driving growth through disruption — transforming what exists or creating what doesn’t through simplicity, convenience, affordability or accessibility — between 2000-2009? List the company and specific disruption(s) of note.
For example, a 1990s nominee could be: Dell (direct distribution).
http://www.surveymonkey.com/s/7L58LJ2
http://www.sketchysantas.com/
I think I found where all our underemployed used house salesmen are hiding over the holidays.