Bits Bucket For December 27, 2009
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The Housing Bubble
Examining the home price boom and its effect on owners, lenders, regulators, realtors and the economy as a whole.
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Name:Ben Jones
Location:Northern Arizona, United States
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Homeownership in U.S. May Decrease, New York Fed Study Finds.
(Bloomberg) — The rate of homeownership in the U.S. may fall in coming years as households rebuild equity wiped out by the worst slump since the Great Depression, according to a study by economists at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
“The official homeownership rate will likely experience significant downward pressure in the coming years,” Andrew Haughwout, Richard Peach and Joseph Tracy wrote in a paper posted on the bank’s Web site. Owners whose mortgages are larger than the properties are worth “very likely will convert officially to renters,” assuming prices don’t climb in the next several years, they said.
U.S. homes have lost about $5.9 trillion in value since the market’s peak in March 2006 as mounting foreclosures and the recession weighed on prices, according to Zillow.com. The homeownership rate peaked at 69 percent in 2006 and has since dropped to 67.3 percent, a level not seen since 2000, the authors wrote.
A drop in homeownership would have broader implications for the economy, boosting the national savings rate, they said.
Richard Peach coauthored a memorable article a few years back explaining why there was no real estate bubble.
“As for the likelihood of a severe drop in home prices, our
examination of historical national home prices finds no basis
for concern. Even during periods of recession and high
nominal interest rates, aggregate real home prices declined only
moderately.”
Historical studies ? What like the past 50 years ?
“…convert officially to renters”?
How about converting unofficially to renters? How is that different?
They’re already unofficially renters! Anyone with zero or negative equity is practically speaking an unofficial renter.
Converting them officially to renters would remove some of the denial from the system.
As a proud, legitimate renter and housing bubble vulture, I hereby protest the term being mid-applied to underwater FBs.
They haven’t been issued their scarlet ‘R’.
LOL… Nice one, alpha. Scarlet R’s for all!
Dear HBBiers, followings are more incites of coming Great Housing Recovery of 2010…
http://seekingalpha.com/article/179841-fannie-freddie-what-does-treasury-know?source=article_sb_popular
http://money.cnn.com/2009/12/08/real_estate/housing_outlook.fortune/index.htm
http://www.mbaa.org/NewsandMedia/PressCenter/71112.htm
Oh dear. Some might say those are just doom-n-gloom sources.
Good find, gal.
A plan for getting California’s fiscal house in order. LA Times
Weaning California leaders of wishful thinking and fiscal fantasy is a priority as another lean year awaits.
Charles Dickens would have been flummoxed by the Golden State in 2009. It was the worst of times, pure and simple, with no “best” to balance out the ledger.
At the start of the last calendar year, the state of California was staring down the barrel of a $42-billion budget deficit looming for 2009-10. By midyear, when negotiations between Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger and the Legislature got serious, the gap had widened to $60 billion.
Sacramento closed that chasm with its usual patented formula of draconian budget cuts, imaginary savings and outright thievery from city and county fiscal larders. But this did nothing to solve the state’s structural budget imbalance. A forecast last month from the nonpartisan Legislative Analyst’s Office pegged the budget deficit facing the state now at $20.7 billion, including a $6.3-billion hangover from the current year and a $14.4-billion shortfall for 2010-11. Last week the governor called for more deep cuts in state programs and said he would appeal for federal aid to help close the gap.
In the future, the LAO said, the state will face a continuing budget deficit of $20 billion a year. That’s equal to the combined salary of all 306,000 elementary and high school teachers in the state. Even with an “unexpectedly strong economic recovery,” the analyst’s office added, there is “no way the state can avoid reprioritizing its finances” — both through significant reductions in major state programs and new revenues.
That pretty much defines the mandate for the state of California in 2010. The time for wishful thinking and fiscal fantasy has passed.
Luckily, we will have an opportunity to air all the possible solutions to our fiscal mess this year through the mechanism of a gubernatorial election.
“Weaning California leaders of wishful thinking and fiscal fantasy is a priority as another lean year awaits.”
Perhaps for starters, the state should avoid R-cans with Hollywood resumes when searching for the next governor, as this ilk has proven itself to be fiscally profligate (at least in two cases that spring to mind…).
Is it just the leaders who demand less taxes and more spending, or the special interests, or all the people?
And will facing the problem mean grandfathering existing beneficiaries, and selling out younger generations, again?
No one is willing to call out Generation Greed.
When the generation without greed does finally make its appearance, there will be no more war. Somehow, I do not think we are there yet. To think that this is a characteristic of only your parents generation is silly.
No one is willing to call out Generation Greed.
According to the book “The Fourth Turning” this was the price paid by Boomers to ascend to power they had to pay off the older generation.
True ? I don’t know ……….. But its over. The spoils of a Global victory in war2 are spent and then some
“Generation greed” believes that unbridled growth is good, and what was good for their parents was never good enough for them.
They believe that money is made by finding exploding Ponzi schemes, getting in early, and getting out before it is exhausted and collapses. Hard work is for chumps.
They believe that the “Art of the deal” is more valuable than honor, and that appearances are more important than substance.
They believe theyshould never compromise their ‘individuality’, shunning cooperation as “collectivist”, friendship as “networking”, charity as “welfare” and the covenants of a functioning society as “oppression”.
Finally, they believe “government is bad”, then proceed to dismantle it in the most cynical and short sighted ways so that their ‘prediction’ becomes self-fulfilling prophecy.
Stop blaming a straw man. There is no Generation Greed, only the super rich vs everyone else. And they’ve rigged everything, and they’re the only game in town.
Until that changes, many people have had to and will continue to have to compromise themselves. Some will feel no shame and some will, but have no choice.
For those of you think you always have a choice between right and wrong, you’re either very lucky, very sheltered or very young. I sincerely wish all of us good luck.
What? Like some Democrat could have provided a different result?
CA is an example of what a liberal, socialist regime will cause whether in a state or a country. Why? Because the ever increasing bureacracy “is the problem” and not the solution.
True on growing bureacracy, but as an Ex-Repuke, my former party is no different. I am now a political atheist.
“…an Ex-Repuke, my former party is no different. I am now a political atheist.”
Hey, that’s me too!
AW,
No different? Where it took the Bush presidency 2 terms to run up our deficit to x (whatever the x figure is), it has taken BHO and the Dems less than a year to surpass that deficit.
Clearly the Dems care less about balancing the budget. Does anyone remember in the last presidential election and how some of our liberal friends were so concerned about our budget deficit? I don’t think I’ve heard many have voicing the same concerns.
The Republicans left the country in such a bad state that no matter who took over was going to be a lightning rod for criticism. BHO could have done a lot with his mandate to fix a broken system but chose to squander it by entrusting that broken system too much.
No one has given a shred of proof that leaving the Republicans in charge would have benefited the country at all. They are merely echoing populist rage at the corporatist system untill they get back in the drivers seat, which is when they will start to behave in the same self-interested and tone deaf manner the Democrats have.
Only a complete TOOL would believe that our two party system is serving us well. The whole system has been broken because of a cynical belief that no government is good government, despite the fact that no society has ever flourished under those conditions.
NoSingleOne
Thank you for expressing a concise opinion, and one I agree with. I blame a lot of this on Greenspin, Rubin, Summers, Paulson, Geithner, Bernanke, Phil Grahm, and a host of other villians. The President is mostly a figurehead puppet. Our govt. has been broken for a long time. We’ve been living under the illusion of a democratic republic for at least 2.5 decades, imho.
“The Warning” on PBS Frontline (online now), was insightful. Tim Geithner was 35 years old, when he became a jr player in our govt. It was an hour worth every minute.
http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/pages/frontline/warning/
I saw “The Warning”, and it has had a great influence on my thinking.
Brooksley Born was treated very poorly by the architects of this bubble, and the fact that the same goons (more or less) still wield power over our economic destiny is the disgrace that no one in the Obama adminstration is talking about…they’ll be very sorry they entrusted the same stupid bubblemeisters come 2012, if not 2010.
The whole system has been broken because of a cynical belief that no government is good government, despite the fact that no society has ever flourished under those conditions.
Nailed it. Well said NoSingleOne.
Don’t forget that the noecon push for smaller government resulted in there being more government contractor employees than actual government employees. Don’t even try to tell me it all wasn’t a scam to loot the government. And this country fricken bought it!
Good posts, NSO and eco.
As long as you guys are being broken records I’m going to be one too. There was never any net downsizing of government. They repealed three regulations and replaced them with thousands more. Then you guys gripe and moan about those few regulations, fixated on one side of the balance sheet.
I’ve lived in CA and I would NEVER call them liberal. That has to be the most uptight state I’ve ever seen that pays a lot of lip service to being “progressive” while doing what every good neocon corporate raider does and loot the government.
The people of California have applied housing bubble mentality to state government. Tax income could only go up and the politician bought into it creating programs the people wanted. If the politicians did not cooperate, then the initiative process, where anyone can get something on the ballot if enough signatures are collected, was used. When something passed like Proposition 13 that capped property tax, the politicians would take note and figure people did not want to pay for taxes, but then propositions would be proposed stating a certain amount should go to schools or roads so creative financing was used. Californians want the good life without paying for it. Now however, ultimately California does not have the option of running up great debt like the Federal government does to try and blunt the impact of the downturn. Also though, there are those propositions that are still on the books that the politicians think the people want with no flexibility to quickly modify them to suit the current situation. Term limits also mean that the politicians never get enough experience on how to run the State before they term out. I am trying to think what could make it worse. Well three strikes and you are out with the an atrocious recidivism rate and prisons at twice design capacity, a two thirds majority to pass a budget, and oh yes a governor that knows nothing about politics and thinks action movie characters are the way to get things done in government. Unfortunately he sometimes gets his way and it is unfortunate because he is just reacting. There is no stepping back and developing a plan to get Californians out of the mess. Bush ruined the Republican Party and Schwarzenegger is doing more of the same thing in California. It’s so polarized, but the only way I can see for progress to occur is for some cooperation between the political parties. It’s not going to happen and I can only standby in helpless fascination, as wonderful California slowly becomes the worst State of the fifty States of the Union.
“wonderful California slowly becomes the worst State of the fifty States of the Union.”
Hey, but there’s always the weather.
It takes a long time to turn a big ship..Particularly a big ship that is in poor condition…In the mean time, yes, I will enjoy my weather…Bike ride today in fact…Sun is out after a great overnight rain…
The weather may change too - global warming would make SoCal more of a dry desert than it already is…
Just thinking happy thoughts.
We don’t have a water supply problem we have a water “waste” problem “Big Time”….Just the passing of something a simple as “point of sale” water conservation with toilets & shower heads has consitantly been defeated by CAR…
But that would be a nanny state, and we can’t be havin’ any of that.
I might have to go pee in the Colorado River on general principle.
Boxing day sales are today (In NB it’s against the law to be open on the 26th). I better get out there and do my bit to jumpstart our economy - new stereo, TV, car, house, heck I think I’ll get a pony too.
Then again, maybe not. I’ve been reading this blog too long to do that…
Driving the QEW yesterday across southern Ontario. Passed a mall near Toronto and the parking lot was packed to the extreme with cars circling for a parking spot. The westbound exit to the mall was backed up for several miles with folks anxious to join the frenzy.
Holidays with extended pseudo family in Sarnia. Lots of stories about cut hours and lost jobs. Dow is a shadow of what it was. Still, the spending mania lives.
Oh, and the Olympic torch passed through. Why is it broken up into little pieces anyway?
How about a quick splination about Boxing Day. I could Wiki it, but it would be more interesting coming from the horses mouth.
I’m led to believe it is an old tradition to give holiday tips to the merchants supplying the household on the day after Christmas. Now it is a discount shopping holiday.
Even as economy mends, a jobless decade may loom
By JEANNINE AVERSA
The Associated Press
Posted: 1:46 p.m. Saturday, Dec. 26, 2009
WASHINGTON — Call it the Terrible Teens.
The decade ahead could be a brutal one for America’s unemployed — and for people with jobs hoping for pay raises.
At best, it could take until the middle of the decade for the nation to generate enough jobs to drive down the unemployment rate to a normal 5 or 6 percent and keep it there. At worst, that won’t happen until much later — perhaps not until the next decade.
The deepest and most enduring recession since the 1930s has battered America’s work force.
The unemployed number 15.4 million. The jobless rate is 10 percent. More than 7 million jobs have vanished. People out of work at least six months number a record 5.9 million. And household income, adjusted for inflation, has shrunk in the past decade.
Most economists say it could take at least until 2015 for the unemployment rate to drop down to a historically more normal 5.5 percent. And with the job market likely to stay weak, some also foresee another decade of wage stagnation.
Even though the economy will likely keep growing, the pace is expected to be plodding. That will make employers reluctant to hire. Further contributing to high unemployment is the likelihood of more people competing for jobs, baby boomers delaying retirement and interest rates edging higher.
All this would come after a decade that created relatively few jobs: a net total of just 464,000. By contrast, 21.7 million new jobs were generated between 1989 and 1999.
Economist David Levy, chairman of the Jerome Levy Forecasting Center, says the country faces a new era of chronically high unemployment, averaging 8 percent or more over the next decade.
The “New Abnormal,” he calls it.
Levy thinks the New Abnormal also means average pay will dwindle, along with consumer prices. That would make it harder for households to pay down debt, he warns.
By the Federal Reserve’s reckoning, the jobless rate could remain as high as 7.6 percent in 2012. And it would take two or three years after that for the job market to return to normal, the Fed says.
It’s possible jobs won’t return to pre-recession levels at any point over the next 10 years, Levy says.
That’s mainly because the economy’s recovery, sluggish by historical standards, isn’t expected to regain its vigor over the next few years. As a result, companies will be in no rush to ramp up hiring.
Other analysts think the economy will recover the jobs wiped out by the recession by 2013 or 2014 but that the unemployment rate will stay high. They note that the healing economy will cause more people to stream back into the labor force, vying for too-few jobs.
In addition, baby boomers whose retirement accounts have shrunk could put off retiring and stay in the work force longer. That would leave fewer positions available for the unemployed.
Other contributing forces — businesses squeezing more work from employees they still have and relying more on part-time and overseas help — have intensified. And record-high federal budget deficits and the threat of inflation could drive up interest rates, which could hobble growth and restrict job creation.
All those factors could combine to keep unemployment high.
“It will be the mother of all jobless recoveries,” predicts economic historian John Steel Gordon.
On the other hand, it’s possible some technological innovation not yet envisioned could generate a wave of jobs. Yet at the moment, most economists aren’t betting that any such breakthroughs will rescue the labor market.
The last time the jobless rate reached double digits, in the early 1980s, it took six years to bring it down to normal levels.
Unemployment hit a post-World War II high of 10.8 percent at the end of 1982 as the country was emerging from a severe recession. The rate fell to around 5 percent in 1988. It took less than two years for the number of jobs to return to its pre-recession level.
In this recovery, the economy is far more fragile.
Hard-to-get credit is exerting a drag. Wounds from the banking system’s worst crisis since the Great Depression will take years to fully heal. People and companies, scarred by the crisis, are likely to restrain borrowing, spending and investing.
Some analysts think the jobless rate might have already peaked at 10.2 percent in October. But most economists predict the rate will peak at around 10.5 percent by the middle of next year.
“We are digging out of a very deep hole,” says Lynn Reaser, chief economist at Point Loma Nazarene University in San Diego and chief economist for the National Association for Business Economics.
Reaser estimates it will take until 2015 for the unemployment rate to drop to 5.5 percent.
A sputtering job market carries other consequences. One is flat wages. When many people compete for few jobs, employers have no incentive to raise pay.
The economic shocks of the past decade already have cut into Americans’ incomes. That’s among the reasons why people feel they’re standing still economically.
Median household income, adjusted for inflation, fell to $50,303 in 2008, according to the U.S. Census. That gauge combines wages and salaries, investment income and government benefit payments like Social Security. It’s down 4 percent from a peak of $52,587 in 1999, when incomes were bolstered by stock gains from the dot-com boom.
That bubble burst in 2000. Since then, workers have seen meager wage gains. Adjusted for inflation, wages grew about 13 percent in the past 10 years — the slowest pace in five decades, according to calculations made by Scott Hoyt of Moody’s Economy.com.
That trend is predicted to continue.
“There will be a continued hollowing-out of the middle class,” says H.W. Brands, a historian at the University of Texas.
He points to productivity growth, which has let companies produce more with leaner work forces, the offshoring of service-sector jobs and the shrinking of factory jobs.
That’s why Vicki Adriano, 51, who works at a General Motors plant in Lordstown, Ohio, looks ahead to the coming decade with trepidation.
The economic wreckage of the past year means she’ll probably have to work longer than she had expected at the factory— at least seven more years. She frets about the loss of economic security.
“Everything you worked for all those years can be gone in a minute,” she says.
Which “profession” has the best forecasting ability- economists, meteorologists, or astrologers?
Economists have NO IDEA how long it will take unemployment to drop to the 5 to 6 percent range. They’re just guessing.
It would be fun to have a job where you were paid to make guesses, and still keep the job when a significant number of your guesses turn out to be wrong.
The most accurate and truthful answer one could give to questions regarding the unknown future is “I don’t know”.
But economists can’t say “I don’t know”, they are paid big bucks to know. If they say they don’t know too many times then they will be replaced by people who will say that they do know.
Soooo … out comes an answer whenever the question is asked.
Someone once said that the reason economic forecasts are always expressed with resolution in tenths of a percent is to show that economists still have a sense of humour.
When we do project budgets (which could be greater than $ 1,000,000) at work we do them to the nearest dollar…if we try to round them off to the nearest thousand or 10,000 we’re told not to do that.
1,000,003 +/- 20%
Nice post Jeff….
More than likely the thing that will drive the unemployment rate down is many of the unemployed, particularly those in their late fifties and early sixties will just give up looking for work and “retire” earlier than planned.
I suspect for lots of boomers, retirement will be less the gold watch and a ride into the sunset and more being downsized into retirement.
The company I work for is pretty shaky and I’ve pretty well decided that at the age of 61, if the company fails, I will just ride the unemployment benefit express into the early social security years. I just don’t think I have in me to go through the job hunting wars again.
Fortunately, I paid my house off years ago and have a good chunk of $$ in the bank, so I could afford to do it. But whether someone my age could afford to or not is irrelevant, it is highly unlikely that someone my age would be able to ever replace thier current position at anything near what they are making now.
The big bugaboo for pre-medicare boomers is health insurance. If the company fails, COBRA is out the window, so I would either have to try to find an individual health policy, go on Mrs. Spokaneman’s plan, or go bare.
Agree with all you’ve said. I hope you are able to remain employed until you can get Medicare coverage, at least.
Best of luck to you!
This is a no brainer if you’ve been alive for the last 5 decades.
Ever wonder were the phrase “McJobs” came from?
Each recession over the last 40 years has left fewer quality jobs in their wake. “McJobs” came from the 80s when offshoring accelerated and was officially recognized in the 90s. It means exactly what it sounds like. A low wage job. Its usage in context usually means lack of good jobs.
A “McJob” economy cannot survive.
But didn’t you know that off-shoring jobs will bring us great wealth? That’s what the “experts” have been saying all these years. You callin’ them liars?
Anyone want to guess the effect on real estate of the Vancouver BC Olympics?
Predictions on prices after the olympics
How much will a house or condo in Vancouver cost after the winter Olympics? Will prices crash or increase forever? Who knows. I’m not going to predict where Vancouver real estate prices will go in the next few years, but I did find some interesting info about one prior host city.
Apparently Salt Lake City Utah is a tremendous ground floor investment opportunity, currently undervalued compared to other US real estate. You may want to cash in on the ‘Olympic effect’ and the great exchange rate by buying property there now. According to this article in the Salt Lake Tribune (pdf) their housing market had a post games slump, but in 2006 they started to see price appreciation again.
“Four years after the slopes around Park City attracted international attention for hosting many of Salt Lake City’s Olympic events, the area has shaken off the financial curse that has often hit host cities following the Games and is undergoing a real-estate boom.”
So why won’t I predict where Vancouver prices are going and when? Because its too tough to get the timing right, and sometimes you get the timing dead wrong. Then you get quotes like this one from Bruce Benham, Chief Operating Officer of RE/MAX international posted on realestatevancouver2010.com:
“We’re all aware of the dramatic headlines proclaiming the inevitable “housing bubble” that will reportedly cripple the real estate industry, and the entire U.S. economy, when it eventually bursts. But you know better. And I hope your clients do too.”
That article was from july 29th, 2005. Anyone know how their market has done since then? hint: not great.
The current ratio of asking sale prices to monthly rents in the area is in the range of 250-400. Rents have fallen considerably, and there’s tons of supply. The empty condo buildings everywhere are slowly reverting to Craigslist rentals - first at wishing prices, later at more competitive rates.
My forecast is that average selling prices on the Wasatch Front will fall another 20-25% over the next 18 months, at which point things will probably stabilize as there still is real economic development that goes on in the area. This of course assumes that the nation overall does not undergo a complete economic meltdown in that time frame, in that case all bets are off.
“As we exit the year, we are told the US is a laissez-faire free market economy and yet the US government is now the largest owner of housing in the US as well as the owner of last resort for some of the largest and completely insolvent US corporations. The Federal Reserve, a privately and anonymously owned and controlled corporation chartered with issuing the nations currency, were given the green light by themselves to transfer to themselves and their shareholders the people’s wealth in the form of their future labor. The FED balance sheet has ballooned to become a junk bond warehouse as they overtly and covertly buy their own debt, immune from any sort of oversight, regulation or auditing and operating above the law. Along with that, increasingly coercive brute force measures are now routinely necessary to manage and manipulate so called “free market” asset prices which are cheerled by so called “financial news media” whose board members and management are all the same people who transferred the people’s wealth to themselves. The corporate media party line idea of a “free market US economy” now seems like a distant memory and it all feels like systemic fraud, corruption, malfeasance and organized crime at the very highest levels”.
Craig Harris
earthblognews
Dec 27, 2009
“Under a paper-money system, a determined government can always generate higher spending and hence positive inflation.”
– Ben Bernanke
Welcome to the United Corporations of America (UCA). In this Corpocracy we have government of the Corporations, by the Corporations, for the Corporations.
Bernanke et al have and will continue to do whatever it takes to save Corporations. They are taxing savers to support Corporations. They’ve guaranteed their debt. They’ve created policies to support or improve Corporate share prices. Look at all the builder giveaways. Look at interest rates.
Keep in mind private, state, and municipal pensions are dependent on the Corporation’s well being. Jobs and tax revenue are also dependent on the Corporation’s well being. This dependence can lead to all kinds of moral hazards, manias, and malinvestments, however.
bbbut to dismantled the established power structures called corporations and corporatism would mean socialism and we can’t have that!
Well said.
What does he mean, “…feels like?!”
Way OT but to good to pass up
A Trump made disaster
First class pain: Unruly Ivana Trump booted off a flight at Palm Beach International
Posted by Jose Lambiet Saturday 26 December 2009 9:21 pm
Palm Beach jet-setter Ivana Trump, whom you’d think would fly private, was booted off a commercial flight departing Palm Beach International Airport this afternoon.
Trump, 60, a former wife of TV star and developer Donald Trump, was not charged with a crime but was escorted off the first-class cabin of Delta flight 2377 to New York City’s LaGuardia Airport and to her waiting chauffeur.
The way a spokeswoman with the Palm Beach Sheriff’s Office puts it, the departing jet’s pilot called deputies about 2:30 p.m. because of a foul-mouthed and unruly passenger in seat 1C, in first class.
When the lawmen arrived, they discovered the abusive passenger was the well-known socialite. They described her as “belligerent” and “aggravating.”
According to PBSO, Trump first was unhappy about her seat. Flight attendants offered her another, and headphones, to calm her down. But then Trump became more frustrated when children started running up and down the aisle while screaming.
You won’t believe the language Trump used. Look below or click
As the plane started to taxi out, an agitated Trump started calling the kids “little fu…..” and telling passengers around her “f*@& you!”
“She was so belligerent toward other passengers and crew that the plane returned to the terminal,” said Teri Barbera, the PBSO spokeswoman.
Trump first refused the deputies’ orders to exit the aircraft. She finally relented after Delta staff offered her to fly at a later date.
“From initial contact until Ms. Trump left the property, she was saying “f&%$ you” to all the deputies,” Barbera’s statement read.
FBI was contacted but didn’t pursue the matter. The ordeal caused a two-hour delay for Trump’s fellow passengers.
The incident comes as airports throughout the world are tightening security measures after an alleged terrorist tried to set off a bomb on a Northwest Airlines flight on Christmas Day near Detroit.
Trump, meanwhile, hasn’t had the greatest time lately. Her 20-month marriage to the much younger Rossano Rubicondi, 37, is running out of steam. Rubicondi, Trump’s fourth husband, has been spreading his love all over Europe while Trump spent the holiday alone in her Palm Beach mansion. She filed for the divorce earlier this month.
Trump couldn’t be contacted and her publicist, Catherine Saxton, didn’t return calls.
They would have arrested and put him on no fly list if it was a JSP. If he had a brown skin, certainly would have made it to detention center. Now these star struck sheeple, they let a effing c*** go away with this kind of B***S***. Amerika is F***** and it’s the sheeple that f**** it.
Could you re-post that in English… I didn’t understand all the “******”
Posted for a good morning laugh..
Napolitano: “The system worked”
DHS Secretary Janet Napolitano said that the thwarting of the attempt to blow up the Amsterdam-Detroit flight this week demonstrated that “the system worked.”
Asked by CNN’s Candy Crowley on “State of the Union” how that could be possible when the young Nigerian who sought to set off the bomb was able to smuggle explosive liquid onto the flight, Napolitano responded: “We’re asking the same questions.”
Napolitano added that there was “no suggestion that [the bomber] was improperly screened.”
The system worked because:
1. The bomb didn’t immediately go off.
2. A passenger (or passengers) took action before the problem with the bomb not going off was fixed.
At least that’s my read. It had more to do with luck than with the system working.
The system to put a dutch passenger in each international flight seems to work well.
LOL, but this proves that Napolitano is so pitifully inadequate for the job. What a completely vile thing to do, take credit for something prevented by a brave passenger and claim the system worked.
A real mental defective who can’t analyze data. That’s you, Janet.
At least a Dutch passenger could be armed with a hard wooden shoe with which to bang the bad guy over the head. And you thought sabotage was a bad thing!
Actually I beg to differ. I fly a lot and yes I think the “system” worked.
It is impossible to screen every passenger to the degree where you prevent them from carrying even a matchstick. Yes, you can start a fire with a matchstick - how on earth are you going to scan everyone?
We all carry laptops. Within each laptop is a lithium battery, which is basically a concentrated storage of energy. The same energy can be used in malafide ways. So are we going to prevent laptops? Say goodbye to business travel if/when that happens.
Yes, the system worked in that it didn’t let the idiot carry any substantial amount of incindiary substance. Yes, the system requires fellow passengers to be vigilant of the goings-on. The FAs are trained to put out fires - the blankets airlines carry are fire-retardant, so no surprise they used one of those.
Short of handcuffing all passengers to the seats, there will be no foolproof security. All we can do is to contain the damage, which did happen admirably in this case. I hate to see the system being made even more perverse/restrictive because of this incident.
“Short of handcuffing all passengers to the seats…”
Say, you may be on to something there.
Seriously, this guy was on a ‘watch list’ and didn’t get the secondary screening that they randomly give to grandmas? Someone screwed up, or else ‘watch list’ has no meaning.
I am glad I choose not to fly and that my work does not have travel requirements. Good luck out there all you flyers with Janet’s crew in charge of homeland security.
Interesting fact: all the 911 hijackers were also on a watch list.
There was no watch list prior to 9/11 and airplane manifests were not checked by FBI.
Skroodle, there is always a “watch” list. Always was and always will be.
Congressional testimony (and massive CYA documents) by the FBI themselves is that they had flagged the 911 hijackers and even arrested Moussaoui in particular, knew they were up to something, but could not execute a search due to lack of “probable cause.” (of course it’s far more involved than that)
Google “Coleen M. Rowley”
War is Peace.
“The system worked” It seems this answer is coming from all high level of Government officials. from Greenspan, from Bernanke, from Napolitano… be careful of the SYSTEM guys..
Seriously, they should TASER kids who run around unsupervised and screaming on airplanes. Ditto for their useless parents.
According to this advice, it would be prudent to have 2 to 3 percent of a home’s purchase price socked away for unexpected expenses. Let’s see how this looks for the purchase of a $500,000 California starter home:
10 percent downpayment = $50,000
3 percent rainy day fund = $15,000
Six months living expenses = $25,000
Savings requirement for financially prudential home purchase = $90,000.
What percent of California starter home buyers responding to $8K tax credit incentives have $90,000 - $8,000 = $82,000 to fund a home purchase that leaves them with a cushion of wealth sufficient to provide for household financial stability?
My guess: Lots closer to 0 percent than 100 percent. The $8K credit is a FB-incentive.
* MARKETWATCH
* DECEMBER 28, 2009
Home Costs Keep Going Up
By AMY HOAK
On his road to homeownership, Scott Leibfried has learned one thing: Expect the unexpected.
Mr. Leibfried and his wife had an offer accepted on a home, only to later find that foreclosure proceedings were about to begin on it. That’s after they considered another home that was aesthetically pleasing but had major issues that came to light upon closer inspection.
Meantime, they’re trying to estimate the money they will need for closing costs and future expenses, hoping that they won’t eat too much into their financial cushion.
Allan Glass, a Los Angeles real-estate agent who works with the couple, says “the biggest mistake buyers make is underestimating the costs” of buying a house and maintaining it over time.
Homeowners should have 1% of the purchase price of their home in savings for improvements and surprise expenses, he says. “That is the absolute minimum. It’s better to have 2% to 3% socked away somewhere.”
…
We do, we do! Oh wait, you said “home buyer.” My wife and I are just _potential_ buyers. We recognize that saving up that much cash took 4 years of full employment at very good jobs. Who knows how many 4 year stretches like that we’ll get? Frankly, after Los Angeles crashes (another 4-5 years), we hope to purchase in cash, as that will be 8-10 years of constant saving.
But according to all the realtors around here, everyone is cash-rich!!! (not kidding, that’s their claim)
“From initial contact until Ms. Trump left the property, she was saying “f&%$ you” to all the deputies,” Barbera’s statement read.
What is she doing slumming on a commercial flight anyway, she must know the great un-washed are ill-mannered. Dough must be tight since the failure of the much anticipated “Ivana Condz” in Vegas.
Anyone remember when Zsa Zsa Gabor slapped a Beverly Hills cop?
Raises hand
To slap down a peon?
Tee hee
From our local fish wrap…
After-Christmas sales: No rush for shoppers
Retailers see steady, but not scorching, sales Saturday
thestate.com
It might as well have been any other retail shopping Saturday.
Parking was aplenty. Lines were like those on routine shopping weekends.
There was no sign of pent-up shopping fever - even after most folks in South Carolina spent Friday trapped indoors by a rare Christmas Day downpour.
return
“Nobody’s shopping,” Ginger Miller, 42, who works for a large discount retailer, said of day-after-Christmas traffic on an overcast but dry morning. “The normal crowd of people (who are) coming in and jam-packing the clearance aisle, there is just nobody.”
“It was already discounted,” said Natasha Smith, 26, outside Macy’s in Columbia Place mall. “I brought it back today, and it was discounted even more. I got a lot of stuff for nothing.”
The strongest turnout seemed to be for holiday decorations, where customers and retailers agreed that shoppers arrived early and snapped up glittery merchandise to prepare for next Christmas.
“It looked like locusts had gone through the Christmas stuff,” Ledbetter said. “So people don’t mind spending money on some unnecessary things.”
Ledbetter and Morris also noticed that higher-quality apparel was marked down more than usual in Belk and other stores where they spent money Saturday.
The recession is to blame, shoppers agreed.
Meanwhile, you couldn’t get a parking spot in the DC suburbs this weekend unless you got up before the sun.
No recession for Federal Employees. Let the rest of us eat cake.
We went visiting on Saturday, which entailed an hour drive each way. We passed a couple of malls and a lot of shopping plazas, most of which were - thanks to some Boxing Day snowfall here in Chicagoland - fairly empty. Business at movie theaters OTOH appeared to be humming along nicely.
With all the new homes recently built around Lost Vegas, it is a bit shocking to read about so many folks setting up encampments underground. This is a tragic disaster in the making, as desert thunderstorms are well known to produce rare but extreme flooding.
Las Vegas tunnels home to hundreds
Homeless find refuge in flood-control system under streets of city where rain is scarce
By Ashley Powers
Tribune Newspapers
December 27, 2009
LAS VEGAS - — He already lived in the shadows, if you could call it living.
Most days, for nearly four years, Glenn Harrington foraged for money, smoked marijuana and methamphetamine and searched for somewhere to crash: a buddy’s couch, a deck chair at the Tropicana pool.
Then last year a fellow homeless guy directed Harrington and a buddy to the tunnels. Beneath the glossy Strip and suburbs in the Las Vegas Valley are hundreds of miles of flood-control tunnels.
In the pitch-black tunnels, you can disappear. And for a time, Harrington desperately wanted to disappear.
So, last fall, he and his friend Thomas Kruse headed over to a culvert west of the Strip leading into the tunnels. They started plying the handful of tunnel residents with weed and, eventually, were given the OK to move in.
Harrington waded into the darkness.
Harrington, 44, had fallen on hard times. He had started blowing money on drugs and slot machines and eventually ended up on the streets.
Other residents of the tunnels tell similarly glum stories, if they share them at all. Part of the tunnels’ appeal is a tacit code that your past sins may remain unspoken.
The passageways begin in a number of low-lying spots around town, including near the iconic “Welcome to Fabulous Las Vegas” sign. Many tunnels are roughly the size of hallways. Las Vegas averages only 4 inches of rain a year, but flood water can blast through so quickly that, when storm clouds loom, some residents temporarily clear out.
Encampments are sometimes littered with the plastic bags and balloons synonymous with meth and cocaine. The only light comes from flashlights or the sun streaming through street grates. In one tunnel, someone scrawled: Thank you for the knowledge of heartbreak.
…
A simple case of Cause & Effect: “He had started blowing money on drugs and slot machines and eventually ended up on the streets”.
“…In one tunnel, someone scrawled: Thank you for the knowledge of heartbreak.”
Well, over at the glimmering sTrump towers someone carved this in an elevator:
“Kiljoy was here!”
Didn’t we see this same story a year ago?
Yes—only the last story was more interesting and was written better. Maybe it was only 6mo ago? Looked for it with google but didn’t find it.
In some ways, it’s been going on forever. Paris’ system of tunnels and catacombs has been used as a refuge/hideout/whatever for hundreds of years.
http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2004/09/27/world/main645876.shtml
(AP) The City of Light harbors a city of darkness, a vast network of subterranean tunnels that once gave refuge to bandits, smugglers and saints, and cradles the bones of some 6 million Parisians.
Today, this eerie maze is the haunt of living spirits, from youths looking for adventure to urban explorers carving out a new frontier.
An underground movie house replete with bar and phone service, recently discovered by police, is but a slice of the thriving underworld below Paris.
Some 185 miles of tunnels and underground passageways honeycomb the underbelly of the city, most old quarries for the Lutecian limestone used to build the French capital. Others house electricity and telephone cables.
In the deepest sphere, some 100 feet under, lie the catacombs, holding ancient bones from overstocked cemeteries. Part of the catacombs are open to the public, but dropping into the rest city of darkness is illegal and can be hazardous
This sounds like a television show “Beauty and the Beast” that ran from 1987-1990. It starred Linda Hamilton and Ron Perlman.
Well I’ll be… I’d forgotten all about that show.
Which commercial real estate gamble will prove more disastrous: Dubai or Lost Vegas’ new City Center?
At least City Center features sustainability and green building (out in the heart of the Nevada desert, no less!)…
City Center: Las Vegas’ newest, greatest, mega-resort
By Tom Wharton
The Salt Lake Tribune
Updated: 12/25/2009 03:05:40 PM MST
Las Vegas » The $8.5 billion City Center in the heart of this desert gambling town is a study in contradictions.
In a place known for its excesses, this complex of hotels, shops, spas, night clubs and restaurants emphasizes sustainability and green building.
During a week when Binnions closed its downtown hotel and the venerable Sahara shut down two of its towers for lack of guests, City Center brought thousands of new rooms as 12,000 new employees settled into their jobs.
Las Vegas’ great resort complexes were largely built on the bankrolls of gamblers, yet two of this development’s main hotels, the Vdara and Mandarin Oriental, feature no casinos.
…
“..yet two of this development’s main hotels, the Vdara and Mandarin Oriental, feature no casinos.”
Oh goody, “Coming Soon”: x3 eggs, x2 pancakes, x2 bacon, hash browns & free coffee…$2.99 (rent a $19.99 room & get a $50.00 ca-sin-o coupon book)
Back, …to the beginning
Isn’t it amazing how all it takes to end a financial crisis is for some deep pocket to pour lots of money down a rat hole?
Crisis Over as Dubai Receives $10 Billion Abu Dhabi Bailout
By Stephen Jones
Epoch Times Staff Created: Dec 25, 2009 Last Updated: Dec 25, 2009
DUBAI, United Arab Emirates—The debt-ridden emirate of Dubai has been given a US$10 billion (CA$10.6 billion) handout by its neighbour Abu Dhabi.
It will use US$4.1 billion of the money to pay off the debts of its state-run conglomerate, Dubai World.
A subsidiary of the sprawling investment company, Nakheel, had required the money to pay off an Islamic bond, or sukuk, which matured on Monday.
On November 25 the Dubai government announced that it would seek to postpone repayments on Dubai World’s US$26 billion debt.
The announcement sent shock waves through the world economy and triggered intense speculation on whether the emirate was unable to repay its debt.
…
Trust me, the Dubai World crisis isn’t over and it isn’t “contained.” Wait and see.
You make it sound so easy. The skillful part is to find the right people to give the money too. As long as they’re okay, getting their bonuses, retaining the “top talent” necessary to create such an epic mess, there’s no financial crisis.
Hey you guys, …”Cut with the negative waves Kelly!”
Filed under: Alternative uses for large Get Stucco Boxes
(Notice that density ratio in 1931, how many do you think were from South of Texas?)
Not allowing electricity is really holding the Amish back, but not their Mennonite “cousins”
Couple finds former rooming house suits their lives:
By Melissa Merli, Saturday, December 26, 2009 The News-Gazette
“…By 1931, though, the house had different owners; it eventually was partitioned off to become a rooming house. Otto and Shenk have talked to people who lived there when the house had 18 tenants.”
“Though the house is big – 3,000 square feet – it suits the family’s lifestyle. They like to entertain and have hosted parties and house concerts, one with Otto’s nephew, violinist Chris Otto, and his wife, cellist Emily DuFour. And Otto, one of nine children, often entertains relatives.”
“…The kitchen has a dark gray, speckled counter top made of a composite and 42-inch cherry-wood cabinets custom-built by a cousin in Arcola, home to a large Amish community.
“It was a real issue because there are 40 cabinet shops there and 35 of them are our relatives,” joked Otto, who was Amish until age 4, when his parents became Mennonites.”
You seem to have an creepy obsession with Amish people.
I’m absolutely fascinated how a group a people can be a part of the “Ownership Society” in America…and yet they seldom complain.
Fascinated enough to actually learn what makes them tick? Here’s a hint: it doesn’t have anything to do with what you most likely think it does, judging by your typical comments about them.
To make a short story long…I lived with:
1.Amish
2.Mennonites
3.Hutterites
Say uncle skinny dave…
I admit a certain fascination about the Amish. I came from California and suddenly see horse drawn buggies. Excerpt from a 9500 word Wikipedia article: There are prohibitions or limitations on the use of power-line electricity, telephones, and automobiles, as well as regulations on clothing. Many Amish church members may not buy insurance or accept government assistance, such as Social Security… Two key concepts for understanding Amish practices are their rejection of Hochmut (pride, arrogance, haughtiness) and the high value they place on Demut (humility) and Gelassenheit (calmness, composure, placidity) — often translated as “submission” or “letting-be”. Gelassenheit is perhaps better understood as a reluctance to be forward, to be self-promoting, or to assert oneself. The Amish’s willingness to submit to the Will of God, expressed through group norms, is at odds with the individualism so central to the wider American culture. The Amish anti-individualist orientation is the motive for rejecting labor-saving technologies that might make one less dependent on community. Modern innovations like electricity might spark a competition for status goods, or photographs might cultivate personal vanity.
I had numerous dealings with the Pennsylvania Dutch just across the Mason-Dixon line, when I lived in Central MD 25 years ago. They’re quite idiosyncratic and conflicted in how the various groups accommodate and deal with the rest of the world around them. Their ways are not mine but I find much to admire about them.
Ironic that most (not all) of the same people who will lavish praise on the Copenhagen planet saviors with their private jets and lavish conferences, will regularly heap scorn on those who have maintained the lowest consumptive footprint of all, from the get-go. It doesn’t count for anything that they’re actually living the “back to the earth” principle better than any of the rest of us, because they’re doing it ostensibly for the wrong reasons.
environmentalists scorn the Amish?
I wasn’t referring to environmentalists, that’s your term. I was referring to people who support Copenhagen and all the political efforts behind it over the past two decades.
I would guess from your remark that you would consider any supporter of the current AGW regime, with all of its proposed remedies, to be an environmentalist by definition. I used to as well, but my observations have since led me to conclude otherwise. For the most part, I’ve found that links between supporting the UN IPCC’s intentions and supporting real, results-oriented conservation and wise resource utilization in practice are mostly coincidental. It took me a decade of selling solar PV systems and being immersed in the “green” industry to come to that reluctant conclusion.
AGW believers scorn the Amish?
I used to spend a lot of time in N. Indiana around Goshen. My work took me to the Starcraft boat plant in Topeka, heart of the Indiana Amish Country.
The Amish clearly are a very hard working group of people, both in their personal lives and at the businesses where they are employed. Thinking about what it takes to plow their fields with an 8 horse hitch, its just an incredible amount of work.
One of the most humorous things I saw was a horse and buggy, pulling a small fishing boat and trailer. The horse was able to back the boat and trailer down the boat ramp and into the water.
Can’t say I understand them, but I do have an admiration for them
“You seem to have an creepy obsession with Amish people.”
Lol, he just likes saying, “Yoder.”
Yo-der
Yooodurr
YoDUr
YOdurr
Ha! Yoder…. haven’t heard that since I was working in no-mans_land Delaware. Plenty of amish there.
Here’s what the bubble looks like in my hometown:
http://www.mpnnow.com/monroe_county_east/x1373201028/Schoen-Place-grain-silo-nears-completion
This guy turned a concrete grain silo into “luxury” office space.
Not sure about his pricing…but that’s awesome!
Amerika, what a country!
This kind of stuff was done quite successfully around here….
And those buildings are quite ugly.
This is one of the prettiest spots in Rochester, and that silo has been an eyesore for very long. Had always wondered why it was not torn down.
Hey Harry: Where is Nevada’s gift?
http://www.lvrj.com/opinion/hey-harry-where-is-nevadas-gift-80104262.html
Keep looking Sherman, its in there somewhere.
http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/economics/article6965784.ece
Thrifty families stand accused of prolonging the recession. Guilty parties in here, you know who you are….
“Get those brokers back in here! Turn those machines back on!”
Realty Q&A
Dec. 23, 2009, 12:01 a.m. EST
Winning the trial, losing your house
Trying to prevent foreclosure while waiting for a permanent loan modification
By Lew Sichelman
WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) — Question: I have also made trial payments under the Making Home Affordable program. But my house truly was in foreclosure and I spoke with an attorney. Your advice in your column is wrong. They can foreclose, they will foreclose, and they are foreclosing on thousands of people who have made their trial payments every month! See previous Realty Q&A.
There is nothing written into this program that provides any penalty for lenders if they do not modify a loan. They very clearly state that you are not actually approved for the program, and stipulate that the magical approval (or denial) will happen at some unspecified future time.
Mortgage fix elusive for many
Recent evidence suggests housing is rebounding, but many mortgage holders who face financial problems because of the recession have a tough climb to modify their loans and keep their homes out of foreclosure. (Dec. 16)
My story is not unique. I was able to stop foreclosure (only days before the trustee sale) temporarily by filing a complaint with my state attorney general. However, I still have not received a permanent modification and my lender continues to claim paperwork that I have provided is missing.
The bottom line is that paying trial payments in anticipation of a modification does not guarantee anything and foreclosure is the most likely outcome.
…
Hello Palmetto -
I will be in Florida visiting family during this winter break from school. Where are you in Florida? I would enjoy having a cup of coffee and a sandwich with yah sometime this January…
Hey HBBers - I’m having a wonderful time now that I am back in school. I am in school by my own choice, not because it is being forced upon me by bad economics/unemployment/hard times etc.
Wow, so many people worshiped at the altar of REAGU and now look at this holy mess. What is the fascination over owning aging buildings? I have always rented my entire life and have done OK for myself without any RE. My preference is to invest in real businesses that offer credible living-wage employment and provide goods and services that actually benefit our society. A nine year old investment is now a 27-bagger and has pulled me well over the top into seven figures. The rich get richer and the poor get (a) mortgage(s).
Good to see ya, again TCM, and congrats on your milestone! Please keep us posted?
Glad to hear you are in a good place in life and enjoying school.
Enjoy your trip to Florida.
Adventures in Homeownership (okay, yeah, home-loanership)
Hate the ants. Stupid wet winter. Anyway.
About a month ago, we noticed that the sewer catch at the bottom of the driveway was overflowing. Called the city sewer folk, and they came out in an hour, unplugged the drain. Then they sent over a truck with a pipe camera and discovered the real culprit– over the thirty years this development has been here, the ground has settled… and the pipes no longer connect. Offset to the point where we apparently have less than a two-inch pipe, effectively. (And soil contamination, I guess.)
So they say that they’ll be scheduling a fix, and to call them if it backs up again. It did (just water), so they came out again.
The amazing part is how wonderful they’ve been about all of this. I swear, these are the happiest workers I’ve seen, friendly, informative, and no fighting at all about whose job this is. On their side of the line, so it’s their responsibility, and they’ll keep things going until they can do the permanent fix (in the next few weeks; they’ve marked the sidewalk and given a likely schedule.)
This is California. You know, where we drive on interstates that have the quality of an asphalt logging road. And yet my sewer fee apparently rates friendly, helpful, 24/7 service that actually gets stuff done. For a cynic like me, this is lovely. I want more of California’s services to work like that.
Great story.
I think we all have a tendency to hear when things go wrong, and rarely hear about the times things go well, because we just **expect** everything to work right.
Thanks for sharing a positive story with us.
http://tinyurl.com/yjtu59d
“It turns out that the bigger the CEO’s slice of the pie, the lower the company’s future profitability and market valuation.”
Duh…