Watching The Wheels Spin Off The Wagon
This is a guest post, followed by some articles I’ve added for commentary.
I am a long time blurker who has enjoyed and learned much from HBB. Many thanks to Mr. Ben Jones and his loyal posters. I went so far as to start The North Idaho Real Estate Blog in the Coeur d’Alene Press ( now defunct) in 2006 using the nom de plume ‘Ben Daere’ in his honor..sort of. A number of posters said that they had been “converted” to seeing real estate reality. So, HBB saved the fiscal bacon of a number of folks in my area for which I feel rewarded in “good vibes.”
During this period, my favorites out of the many excellent posters have been the late, great Oly and the inestimable Allena Hansen, even though I’m probably diametrically opposite in political philosophy, as will be shown soon.
Such is the nature of HBB.
We live in interesting times. The same logical analysis of the housing bubble and siren warning given by the HBB gang should be applied across the board to all aspects of our so-called government. I tend to believe less government is more as I don’t need a whole lot of “governing.” Having worked as an administrator for the Community Services Administration in the ‘70’s taught me that 99+% of people are victims of their own circumstances and that many of those whose plans fall through don’t have any problem demanding that their fellow citizens (taxpayers) pick up their slack.
Concurrent with that experience I began my political experience with haranguing my elected officials to pass a balanced budget amendment; institute term-limits; phase out Social Insecurity and medicare and to downsize our costly foreign commitments. In general, shift power not only from Federal to State, but to the COUNTY level. As Tip O’Neill’s father told him, ‘All politics is local.’ I have trouble enough keeping track of the featherbedding hucksters in my burg, so I don’t have any way of knowing what the politutes in the district of corruption at the south side of Baltimorgue are doing.
Obviously, my efforts were in vain. Now, I just have to lay back and watch the wheels spin off the wagon. I’m like a guy in a kayak going over a waterfall…at first the view’s interesting and it’s pretty exciting but the conclusion is very questionable.
We are rapidly approaching the ‘conclusion’ of our national fiscal nightmare. The $12+Trillion national debt, the $trillion deficits as far as the eye can see, the ‘boomers’ hitting the emaciated SS and medicare programs, the impending collapse of the Pension Benefit Guarantee Corporation and the imploding industrial base that even the counterFIAT money presses can’t keep up with should raise the hair on every taxpayer’s neck. Not to mention that not one cent has been saved for the massive military and civil service pensions.
So, what to do? As the Boy Scouts say, “Be Prepared.”
Rather than hunkering down with an AR-15 and jars of stale flour, I’d rather be proactive and look to how we can make this country a better place. I see that I’ve exceeded 500 words of windy diatribe so I’ll leave it to the cavernous vat of wisdom collectively known as the Housing Bubble Blog to offer up solutions, should it be willing.
Humbly submitted,
Zeus M.
From Bloomberg. “The U.S. investment in Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac may be too deep to effectively transition the mortgage-finance companies out of government control and back into the hands of private investors, their former regulator said. ‘I would love to figure out how to get there, but I think we may be too far along the line of government involvement,’ James B. Lockhart III, who ran the Federal Housing Finance Agency and its predecessor agency from 2006 until August 2009, said in a Bloomberg Television interview.”
“Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, the largest sources of money for U.S. home loans, were seized by FHFA 17 months ago because of their risk of failing and have since survived on $110.6 billion in taxpayer- funded aid. ‘Most of that money will never be seen again,’ said Lockhart. ‘They were just allowed to leverage themselves so dramatically.’”
The DC Mortgage Examiner. “Local GSEs, Fannie Mae in northwest Washington, D.C. and Freddie Mac in Tyson’s Corner, Virginia will have diminished roles in buying mortgages until they put their books in order. The week before they were taken over by our Federal Government, their stocks were trading around $21.00. Today both trade around $1.00 and often less. Unless another infusion is granted by Congress, it is likely their share prices will near zero.”
“This poses a serious problem for the Obama Administration as it tries to steer the economy into the calmer waters of fiscal solvency. Without the two leviathans (FNMA and FHLMC) buying mortgages from banks originating loans, lending institutions will have to keep them on their books. A situation such as this bodes poorly for those with less than perfect credit hoping to get a loan that is not directly underwritten by the government, such as FHA loans.”
“Representatives Barney Frank (D-Mass.) and Maxine Waters (D- CA)…have proposed legislation to reduce the inventory of houses by having local governments purchase them to prevent unfair competition with other homes not in the dire straights of mortgage default.”
“There is another choice yet to be offered. How about banning ownership of private property? Oh, that’s right.! Someone already tried that one.”
The Vancouver Sun. “U.S. housing prices are headed for a double-dip decline that will hurt related equities which have already priced in a recovery in the sector, warns Benjamin Tal, senior economist of CIBC World Markets. The reason, he said, is that any current stabilization in U.S. housing is more a function of a badly damaged market and the distorting affect of temporary tax incentives than evidence of a sustainable rebound.”
“‘We anticipate further weakness ahead as supply continues to outpace demand, mortgage rates head higher and the government’s generous homebuyers’ tax credit finally expires,’ Tal said.”
“The ’shadow inventory’ of housing is what worries Tal most, and has him calling for another decline in prices of five to 10 per cent over the next two years. While conventional inventories are trending lower, there are close to two million mortgages that are more than 90 days delinquent, nearly half of which will end up in foreclosure. Add another 2.3 million properties that are already in foreclosure to existing properties on the market, and you have inventory totalling more than eight million units, a record high 16 months of supply.”
“Even more staggering is the fact that 10 million households now find themselves in a ‘negative home equity’ position of worse than minus 20 per cent. Considering the ease with which U.S. homeowners can walk away from their mortgages, ’strategic defaults’ — or failing to pay when one could — are a very real option, Tal said. ‘In six months from now nobody will be asking what a strategic default is. Everyone will know.’”
“With 24 million Americans now out of work or underemployed, ‘it’s crazy to call for a recovery in the housing market in this kind of environment,’ Tal said.”
The Orange County Register. “Are all these loan modifications we keep hearing about actually helping homeowners avoid foreclosure, and thus helping the housing market and economy? Tom Mitchell, a senior analyst who covers financial stocks at Miller Tabak & Co., agreed that banks’ modified loans may be skewing the picture.”
“‘We now have to consider the [modified loans] as a kind of shadow group of nonperforming assets,’ Mitchell said. ‘It’s reasonable to say that for most banks, if the loans had not been [restructured], they would have been nonperformers.’”
The Pacific Coast Business Times. “Economist Mark Schniepp thinks the lowest point in the recession has passed and that 2010 will be a transition year for Ventura County. ‘Last year we were predicting the end of the world,’ Schniepp said. ‘2009 was horrendous. 2010 is going to be a transition year.’”
“Housing inventory levels are now back to where they were at the peak of late 2005, but Schniepp said the increase is likely due to distressed properties and government incentives for homebuyers. ‘It’s very hard to predict this market because it’s been tampered with … it’s not a free market anymore,’ Schniepp said.”
The Fairfax Times in Virginia. “Nobody is going to paint the current picture as rosy. There are still too many homes for sale and not enough buyers. The economy is still struggling, and many Fairfax residents remain worried about their jobs. That said, though, there are some encouraging signs.”
“It’s also worth noting that the hottest segment of our housing market — homes priced under $300,000 — has largely been fueled by the federal first-time homebuyer’s tax credit of $8,000, an artificial stimulus that’s slated to disappear in April. Rather than allowing the credit to vaporize altogether, perhaps it should be extended to all buyers through 2010. More people would be inclined to buy in the midpriced market ($300,000 to $500,000), freeing up inventory in the ultra-competitive lower end of the housing spectrum.”
“Short of that, we’ve simply succeeded in packing a whole herd of people into low-cost housing, plugging a Titanic-sized hole left by the financially irresponsible who purchased houses well beyond their means.”
“More than a few economists warn that extending or expanding these tax credits in any form is a slippery slope that caters to the ‘you can’t fix everything by throwing more money at it’ crowd.”
“To be sure, blindly writing trillion-dollar checks and adding to record deficits isn’t a long-term solution. But the current tax credit has allowed thousands of Americans to get in the home-buying game on healthy terms, pumped billions of dollars into a moribund industry and preserved tens of thousands of jobs in the process.”
“Opening that program to second-, third- and 10th-time homebuyers won’t solve all of this country’s housing problems overnight, but it is a discussion worth having.”
The Washington Examiner. “The numbers ‘clearly indicate that the rebound in housing demand observed so far has been largely supported by government programs,’ wrote Anna Piretti, senior economist at BNP Paribas.”
“Locally, sales in everyWashington suburb dropped last month, save Loudoun County. December house sales in the District dropped 16.5 percent to 518, and combined sales in Prince William County, Manassas and Manassas Park dropped 11.2 percent to 578. In Maryland, Montgomery County’s sales dropped 18.1 percent, from 923 to 756. And tony Montgomery County is facing a problem that would have been nearly unthinkable several years ago: Foreclosures.”
“Still, home sales picked up in 2009. Year-over-year sales increased 15 percent nationwide from December 2008, when 4.74 million houses were sold. For all of 2009, the 5.1 million home sales were 4.9 percent higher than the 4.9 million in 2008. ‘It’s significant that home sales remain above year-ago levels, but the market is going through a period of swings driven by the tax credit,’ said Lawrence Yun, NAR’s chief economist.”
Smith Mountain Lake. “In 2005 and 2006, the Roanoke Valley Association of Realtors listed more than 100 new members each year, from 1,418 in 2004 to 1,706 in 2006. Since then, the numbers have dropped annually to 1,404 members as of Dec. 31, 2009. In early January, membership was 1,397, said Laura Benjamin, RVAR CEO.”
“Glenda McDaniel, Realtor with Long & Foster in Moneta, said she thinks the membership numbers peaked in 2006 because people were watching the housing market take off and wanted to be a part of it. ‘What happened there, I think, was you had a lot of people that heard about all the good stuff happening in 2004 and 2005 and wanted to get on the bandwagon and join in,’ she said. ‘People were buying everything. There was a boom during that time.’”
“Business was so good, Realtors almost didn’t have to work to find buyers, said McDaniel. ‘They didn’t have to advertise, they didn’t have to do anything; everything was selling so quickly,’ she said. ‘A lot of people got into the business because it was easy … it’s not easy now.’”
“Matt White, broker for Realty World Properties in Huddleston, said the slow housing market of the last few years flushed out the inexperienced real estate agents. ‘Frankly, they weren’t doing a really good job,’ he said. ‘I think it put a bad taste in people’s mouths.’”
The Baltimore Sun in Maryland. “A Laurel man just pleaded guilty to defrauding a lender of $428,000 in a scheme that was orchestrated at the end of 2008, against a backdrop of slumping sales and tightened lending requirements. Olu Campbell said he worked up a plan with an associate to convince a lender to extend mortgages on three Baltimore homes by making the purchases appear legitimate. Campbell had worked as a loan officer and home renovator. His associate had appraisal experience. Together, they used that background to apply for loans on two of the properties — just not as themselves.”
“What was in it for Campbell? A lot of money, he admitted to investigators. In a single transaction, about $110,000 went to his contracting company, Metropolitan Housing Associates LLC, ‘for the ostensible purpose of paying a ‘contractor invoice,’ the statement of facts says.”
“‘Campbell used $20,000.00 of his proceeds to purchase a used BMW,’ it adds in an aside.”
Southern Maryland Newspapers. “It’s been four weeks since the disappointing news came down from the state that all but six of the 18,344 Charles County homes assessed last year dropped in value, with the county as a whole seeing a 28.2 percent drop. But it will be months before those homeowners find out whether or not that means a break on their tax bills.”
“In January, the Maryland Department of Assessments and Taxation announced that the county’s residential property — primarily the St. Charles and Waldorf neighborhoods — lost $1.7 billion in value. The total percentage of residential improved properties in Charles County that decreased in value was 99.97 percent.”
“‘Property values went up substantially between 2003 and 2006,’ said Robert Farr, supervisor of assessments at the Charles County office of state assessments.”
“One of the major issues will be whether the state Homestead Tax Credit, which has historically been a helping hand for residents, has turned into a burden. While the tax credit has helped during boom times it is proving to be a kick while the market’s down. Last year, Mechanicsville resident Beverly Long received news that the state had assessed her home $100,000 less than the last time. Her first assumption was that while her house might not be worth as much as before, at least her tax bill would be proportionately lower.’
“‘When I got my tax bill in July I almost had a heart attack,’ Long said. ‘We had been knocked out of the Homestead Credit. In fact, we owed $400 more. This was our dream home that’s become a nightmare. I know things cost money, but there’s gotta be a happy medium.’”
The Boston Globe in Massachusetts. “State and federal regulators reached agreements with two more struggling Massachusetts banks to shore up their finances. The Massachusetts Division of Banks and the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. ordered Athol-Clinton Co-operative Bank in Athol and Stoneham Savings Bank in Stoneham last month to take steps to safeguard deposits.”
“Stoneham Savings, which was hit hard by delinquent real estate loans after the housing bubble burst, lost $9.2 million last year. Athol-Clinton Co-operative lost $2 million last year, primarily because of troubled home mortgages. Bank president Wayne Grimes noted the Athol area was hit hard by unemployment.”
“‘Things are looking up,’ he said, ‘but it’s a gradual process.’”
The Cape May County Herald in New Jersey. “Fox Chase Bank announced a net loss of $1 million for 2009, compared to net income of $1.2 million in 2008. This year’s net loss included a provision for loan losses of $9.1 million compared to a provision for loan losses of $2.9 in 2008. ‘Economic conditions in the Bank’s geographic locations of Southern New Jersey and Southeastern Pennsylvania continued to deteriorate during the latter part of 2009. We are disappointed with the increased levels of nonperforming assets and the associated increase in the provision for loan losses during the fourth quarter of 2009. Continuing high unemployment and weakness in the housing market continue to place stress on our borrowers,’ said Thomas M. Petro CEO of the company.”
“‘The most significant impact on our loan portfolio was continued stress on real estate values as construction loans for residential projects; residential mortgages and home equity loans comprised $24.1 million of our $29.7 million nonperforming loans at year-end.’”
The Charlotte Business Journal in North Carolina. “Last summer, NewDominion Bank became the reluctant owner of 30 vacant lots in an unfinished subdivision in north Charlotte. Seven months later, the small Charlotte bank still pays bills and mows grass for real estate it never wanted. Banks across North Carolina own $4.5 billion in real estate acquired through foreclosure, according to the latest research by Forum Capital, a Charlotte firm that specializes in banking and real estate issues.”
“That’s a 346% increase since March 2008.”
“Robert Fox, a veteran Charlotte banker who’s president at NewDominion…describes the housing collapse and disputes between builders and developers as ‘a dangerous combination.’ And with real estate lending such a big part of banking in Charlotte, most lenders suffered when the dominos started to fall. ‘The business model worked all through the ’90s and most of the 2000s,’ Fox says. ‘We rarely saw a builder walk away from a project. But that’s what started happening.’”
The Gainesville Times. “The developer facing foreclosure on three Reunion subdivision homes in South Hall said he plans to settle his multi-million dollar loan dispute before his property is auctioned off.
“‘Homeowners may rest assured that this dispute has no impact whatsoever on their property,’ said John Wieland of John Wieland Homes and Neighborhoods in a written statement. ‘It’s business as usual for Wieland.’”
“On Thursday, Compass Bank filed foreclosure notices in The Times against the 39-year-old company. The bank is seeking repayment on a $23 million loan it gave Wieland to build Reunion subdivision, a planned community that opened in 2001. In the spring of 2009, Wieland took to the road in hopes of selling 101 homes in 60 neighborhoods in Georgia, the Carolinas and Tennessee.”
“He planned to sleep in a model home in a different neighborhood every night until he reached his sales goal. His first stop was at Reunion where he said he remained convinced that, despite the recession, the time was right to buy a house.”
“‘This is our fourth big recession, and in the three previous it has always been housing that led the economy out,’ Wieland said at the time.”
The Herald Sun. “North Carolina’s economy, like the country’s, appears to have bottomed out and is poised for what’s likely to be a slow recovery from the recession, an N.C. State University economist said Wednesday. Employment should starting picking up soon, but the state ‘will be lucky’ to add 40,000 jobs in 2010, economics professor Michael Walden told city and county managers from around the state in Durham for an annual seminar.”
“The recovery of a consumer-driven economy is likely to be slow-paced because families will devote more of their money over the next couple years to paying down the debts they incurred while they could borrow against rising home values, Walden said.”
“Walden has become one of the go-to people for local government administrators who, budgeting in mind, are eager to get a handle on economic trends. Walden is also well regarded by the state’s conservatives. He has penned numerous articles for the John Locke Foundation, a Raleigh think tank linked to former Republican legislator Art Pope.”
“Regardless of that tie, Walden said he thought the federal government had acted appropriately in 2008 and 2009 to cushion the economy. He noted that the Bush administration was responsible for some $950 billion in tax cuts and bailouts, to go with close to another $800 billion in economic stimulus from the Obama administration. The Federal Reserve has matched them, pumping up the money supply by some $2 trillion.”
“Comparatively, ‘more resources have been spent fighting this recession than were spent during the [1930s],’ during the Roosevelt administration’s efforts to combat the Great Depression, Walden said.”
“But the collapse of the housing market and other problems that caused a 20 percent, $11 trillion reduction in the citizenry’s on-paper wealth demanded such an aggressive counter, he said. ‘I agree with the view we were at the edge, we were right there, and were going to fall off,’ Walden said, referring to the crisis that unfolded in 2008. ‘The combined efforts of both administrations pulled us off the edge.’”
“Repeating what he told the Durham council a year ago, Walden said the Federal Reserve’s attempts to quell an unprecedented housing bubble by raising interest rates helped trigger the crash. Economists there and on Wall Street didn’t anticipate that bubble-busting measures would cause housing prices nationally to retreat, he said. Rather, they saw price increases continuing, but at moderate, historic rates of 2 to 3 percent annually.”
“The housing collapse ‘is why this recession has been so different from other recessions,’ as it has undermined bank and family balance sheets alike, he said.”
Rather than hunkering down with an AR-15 and jars of stale flour, I’d rather be proactive and look to how we can make this country a better place.
Some thoughts (beside trading in the AR-15 for an AK and storing wheat instead of flour)
1. Make congress live under the same laws that they make us live under (for example - they exempted themselves from obamacare and get fat pensions instead of SS).
2. Ban all public sector unions. They are a monopoly inside a monopoly with no checks and balances (plus tons of conflicts of interests).
3. Force taxes to be paid in cash on April 15th (no withholdings) so people understand what they are really paying.
4. All elections to be conducted on April 16th.
5. Make voting at least as secure as cashing a check (like showing ID). No one allowed to vote if they take more from the government than they pay in taxes.
6. Make all bank that lend keep the loans on their books for at least two years.
7. Not one more bailout of any company.
8. Balance the budget to the standards business must adhere to.
9. Audit the fed.
10. Enforce all immigrations laws. Promptly kick out anyone not legal.
I prefer investing as much in a Roth IRA, having a lot of cash, and having a lot of precious metals. Politicians, be damned! They get their jollies only when we recognize them as “our leaders.”
The problem is, the sort of people who crave power tend to end up getting it, but they make the worst leaders.
That is truly a terrible conundrum! It takes a craving for power to ascend to a position of dictatorial hegemony.
“…the impending collapse of the Pension Benefit Guarantee Corporation and the imploding industrial base that even the counterFIAT money presses can’t keep up with should raise the hair on every taxpayer’s neck. Not to mention that not one cent has been saved for the massive military and civil service pensions.”
This unfunded liability, this Ponzi scheme which dwarfs all the others that have ever been created, will be the trigger that causes the collapse. The Feds and state and local entities will effectively declare BK and will “renegotiate” their debts and their pension liabilities. Same for the European welfare states.
Renegotiate as in, “Hey, I’m offering you ten cents on the dollar or nothing at all. Your choice.”
Wait tell the government changes “the rules on Roth & IRA with holdings”. The government Needs your money. They will give you a choice, switch a large per cent of your funds into government bonds or we will see “raises in your tax with draws”. Is this fair? Of course not but trillions ” are setting there” clearly marked for the takeing. What else do you see where government is going to get their money? Raise taxes on the poor? Raise more taxes on hight incomers? Yes. Raise taxes on business? Yes But that will NOT BE ENOUGH! Good luck on your Roths and IRA plans. Sleep well and pretend this will not happen. Santa Clause might not be there for you. Prepare.
There will be a big revolution if the government taps into the tax deferred investments. Besides, as for Roth’s I will have a great deal of advanced notice to withdraw 100% of what I put in/converted to my Roth this year if the feds decide after five years to get my money.
If it takes a year for the mutton heads to haggle over health care and still not resolve it, it will take as long for them to decide to grab my funds.
I will have cashed them out and put the proceeds elsewhere long before that.
In your scenario, the feds better grab all our Roth’s within the next five years. Given that a lot of boomers are trying to recover their tax deferred plans, there will be a major revolt if the feds get the stuff WE ALREADY PAID TAXES ON!!!
“There will be a big revolution if the government taps into the tax deferred investments.”
No, there won’t. Those people are the least likely to take up arms. The revolution will come when those who have nothing left to lose, go ballistic.
The revolution will come when those who have nothing left to lose, go ballistic.
That’s what I kinda thought revolutions were about too.
Hey that’s good 2banana,
I agree with 9 of them.
You do realize that every one of the items you list is “racist”, don’t you?
Not merely “racist,” but also the stuff of “tinfoil hat conspiracy theory.”
You’ve got to be kidding. I wasn’t going to feed the troll, but then PB responded. Yes, some of the items were a bit tinfoil hat in terms of practicality (the taxes part), but most of them are good ideas. How is ‘audit the Fed’ racist? And making banks keep their loans for two years? And changing benefits for Congress? And paying taxes in cash - what’s the difference, to anyone, whether you pay your tax bill in 26 or 52 installments during the year or all at once? And the public sector unions? I didn’t realize that only minorities belonged to public sector unions. And why is it racist for someone to suggest that the US actually ENFORCE its immigration laws? Have we really regressed that far? Should we not enforce other criminal, or civil, laws against these same illegal immigrants? Why enforce these other laws, but not any immigration-based laws?
Play the race card somewhere else.
For the record 2banana, I’m writing you on my ballot next election.
I don’t think there is a need to “kick out anyone not legal” immigrants , it is only to strictly enforce employment laws and not provide social services to anybody illegal. It is also important to change citizenship law for newborns in U.S. People will leave themselves.
Exactly. Simply by leveling HEAVY fines on employers and individuals for a first offense, and shutting them down or incarcerating them for any further ones, the problem would immediately remedy itself. There would be a convoy of illegals headed back to “May-he-co”. Can’t happen soon enough, IMO.
I was out riding my motorcycle yesterday, and I came upon a HUGE pile of debris dumped out on public lands. It was not there just a few days ago. It was yard waste, as well as other effects which pointed strongly in the direction of illegals (tortilla wrappers, Jarritos bottles, beer cans, etc.). How can they do the landscape work cheaper? By working for lower wages while cheating on things such as dump fees, payroll taxes, car insurance, registration, and a host of other things that legal citizens recognize as lawful, necessary, and right.
while cheating on things such as dump fees, payroll taxes, car insurance, registration, and a host of other things that legal citizens recognize as lawful, necessary, and right.
Obviously you haven’t seen the truck of anglos doing all the dumping? Throwing crap out of their cars and flipping ‘you’ off while you honk at them. Your racist talk is ridiculous. I have seen many White folk doing lots of crap and hoping to get away with it.
I agree that people of all races do a lot of stupid things, but that doesn’t change GB’s argument that they can work for less by gaming the system. One of their fave tactics is to pile into a house in numbers way above legal occupancy to save on rent.
While I agree that would be a large step in the right direction you will still have many undesirables in this country. If you get the NatGeo channel watch gangland before you make up your mind.
We were quite amused when some of the hardcore, self-professed white supremacists said that if Obama was elected president, they were going to move out of the U.S. I don’t know if any have really left, but I hope that they did.
Zero odds of getting any one of 8 of those suggestions; 5% of getting the other two. Me thinks you’d better reconsider getting the AR 15, Banan….
Or the AK-47.
My uncle carried a BAR (the legendary Browning Automatic Rifle).
He was awarded 1 Bronze Star, 2 Silver Stars and 5 Purple Hearts.
You don’t really want to be in any country where everyone is shooting guns at you.
Just sayin’
WOW!
What an Uncle Mikey!
2 silver stars!!!
how did he get those?
His small midwest newspaper did an 3 page article about him last September. He just recently went into an assisted living aptment with my aunt. His govenor just awarded him with some honor for his work with servicemen in his state over the years.
He is a was and still is pretty teriffic guy. I am suprised that he stood still for the news story as he is usually very quiet and humble about it all. His wife and friends had to make him go to France to recieve some medal from the French some years ago.
His a real character and always said that being a Private was the best job in the army. I was in combat but some of his citations make my hair stand on edge.
200 of his men went up some mountain. Only 4 came down.
He took on some bunch of germans in Philipsborug, France I believe. He battled a couple of machine gunners and infantry for over and hour. They finally charged his building and were coming in to get him as he was wounded. He blew them and the door off the hinges.
Another time, his company and the wounded were being over-run. He grabbed the BAR, charged them by himself. Killed 3 and took 9 prisoners.
Just an amazing guy called on, like many others, to do a rough job in WWll.
Two comments on this and the original heading.
1) Your uncle knew what he needed to do and did it. He understood the greater danger of Nazism and Fascism. Still, he was bonded to his fellow soldiers and his bravery, courage and sacrifice was a trait shared by many.
2) The comment about power being devolved down to the COUNTY level is just silly. I’ve heard some ill considered opinions on this blog. That is normal. The COUNTY comment is a troll and not to be taken seriously.
Roidy
“5. Make voting at least as secure as cashing a check (like showing ID). No one allowed to vote if they take more from the government than they pay in taxes.”
The US Budget is 5.4 Trillion dollars. That’s $18,000 per person. (with 300,000 people)
While I don’t agree with you about not being able to vote, everyone who doesn’t pay $18,000/person in taxes is getting a FREE RIDE. If you see someone who heads a family of 4 who isn’t paying at least $72,000 a year in federal income tax, tell him he’s a freeloader if you hear him complain about taxes.
The burden of taxation is on too few people. That’s one of the problems.
Oh, the terrible burden of being affluent!
It wouldn’t be a problem if incomes hadn’t been falling while productivity rose for the last 30 years. Basically, there wouldn’t be too few high taxpayers if there weren’t too few high earners. The once fabulously wealthy have become obscenely wealthy on the carcass of what used to be the American middle class. They are the only ones left with any money to tax!
I’m not affuent. I just believe in fairness. Can’t everyone pay, say, 25%?
“Can’t everyone pay, say, 25%?”
Absolutely…. so long as the first 50k of earned income is excluded for basic human needs like shelter, food and clothing. All income, earned and capital gains get taxed at 25%.
I’m all for fairness.
We need to move back Reagan’s tax cuts for the wealthy. Around that time we had roads that were fixed.
I’m actually on your side on this, except I’d make the limitation only the first 10K. All income, whether dividend, capital gains, or salary taxed the same. And NOT ONE TAX DEDUCTION. No mortgage interest deduction, none of these nonsense $500 deductions for schoolteachers and zillions of other special cases, no dependent deduction.
They could make the rate pretty low if they did this, around 18%, according to some numbers I’ve seen.
Re: Schoolteacher deduction
For one thing, it is $250. I have to buy so much stuff - like kleexes, markers, notebook paper, binders - for kids with parents who, well, don’t supply their kids. You should be glad that teachers care enough to make these expenditures. And it’s largely the so called middle class that is not supplying their kids. Cheap shot dude.
“kleenexs”…..so you don’t jump on stupid teachers who can’t spell. Oh, then there is the antibacterial stuff that the kids just love to run through. That’s OK by me….less sickness.
Amen, PortlandDad!
11. Vote out every senator that voted to re-confirm Bernokio.
‘I tend to believe less government is more as I don’t need a whole lot of “governing.” Having worked as an administrator for the Community Services Administration in the ‘70’s taught me that 99+% of people are victims of their own circumstances and that many of those whose plans fall through don’t have any problem demanding that their fellow citizens (taxpayers) pick up their slack.’
Professor Bear agrees with the concept of government of the people, by the people, for the people. In fact, the best service a G-man can provide is to promote a process where the ‘governed’ all get their voices heard and where the ’solution’ reflects a fair compromise among the discussants. This notion of top-down social engineering with which we have recently become so familiar is a recipe for repeating the progress made by the former Soviet Union towards the late 1980s.
a process where the ‘governed’ all get their voices heard and where the ’solution’ reflects a fair compromise among the discussants.
Sounds like Voltaire’s “general will”
“…politutes in the district of corruption at the south side of Baltimorgue…”
Nicely struck.
http://www.larouchepub.com/other/2010/3704summers_go_now.html
Why Larry Summers Must Go Now!
by Scott Thompson and Paul Gallagher
If the rising movement of American patriots is going to clean out the London/Wall Street swamp of the Obama Administration, not only must Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner go immediately; but Larry Summers, Obama’s chief economic liar and cheat, must get the boot, as fast, or faster.
In a national condition of economic collapse, financial speculation, and swindling, brought on since the 70-year-old Glass-Steagall principle of sound national banking was thrown away a decade ago: This is the government official who repealed it. In the national misery of mass unemployment topping 30 million Americans: This is the “theorist” of doing away with unemployment insurance to “make people find a job.” With the Obama “stimulus” act having clearly failed to reverse that mass unemployment: This is the head of Obama’s economic team who, a year ago, ruled out any program of large-scale credits for infrastructure public works, such as was proposed by economist Lyndon LaRouche, and sought by Democratic constituencies and some Congressional Democratic leaders. With more millions of homes being repossessed, nearly 40 million Americans depending on food stamps to eat, and real unemployment rising over 20% of our national workforce, this is the economics chief who loudly repeats, “The economy is recovering,” even drowning out members of his White House team who know the opposite is true.
As we will show below, Larry Summers’ economic blunders and crimes are many, and some of them have had devastating consequences for this nation and others.
But worst among them: He is a British product, an agent of British imperial monetarism. When he was disgraced and booted out as Harvard University President in 2006—narrowly protecting his associates there from prosecution for theft from U.S. government foreign aid programs—it was the very imperial London Times which picked him up, via a financial column, which made him an “international economics expert” again. That enabled his reinsertion into international banking and financial circles as one of their favorite economists and public speakers—and then, his 2008 insertion, at the top, into the Barack Obama economics team as the controller of Obama’s disastrous economic policies. Obama’s complete embrace of British imperial monetarist policy, beginning at the G20’s great London global bailout conference of Feb. 20, 2009, would not have been carried off without Summers.
Ten trillion dollars in central bank/IMF global bank bailouts later, physical economic reality is still a crash threatening a new Dark Age. Stopping it requires ending the British imperial monetary system often called “globalization,” and returning to credit systems like Alexander Hamilton’s American System of national banking, by alliance among great powers to defeat British monetary strategy. It requires restoring the Glass-Steagall principle of sound national banking immediately.
We need to get the man who crushed Glass-Steagall, out.
Suppose it was possible to wave a magic wand and make all the perpetrators of the financial disaster on hand disappear (including Summers, Geithner, Bernanke, etc).
Who would be left standing to pick up the pieces?
It’s a systemic problem that requires a systemic solution. Which unfortunately does not appear to be forthcoming.
I tire of the personal attacks on GS Blankfein et cetera..they are blood sucking squids…we know that…But it’s not the players I hate as much as the game…
unfortunately, you start tinkering around with “the game” and the conspiracy zombies come out of the closet about “government mind control” and the uselessness of government at all..
This of course makes it much easier for those with a stake in the status quo to prevent any “reform” from taking place….
lots of these larouche-types fall into that first category…
i share their populist outrage….i just don’t see them as very helpful in formulating a solution….
Go ahead and fire all the players , but you still have the same game.
The ultimate bottom line was that until you get a more intelligent, thoughtful, and well-informed electorate - about 5% of our population - we are stuck with the corrupt, incompetent political class that has become entrenched at all levels of local, state, and Federal government. The players may come and go but the game will stay the same.
“Go ahead and fire all the players , but you still have the same game.”
That is close to the concern I was expressing. I have no clear vision of how you could reform the system to make it better, regardless of whether the current cast of characters was replaced. George Orwell’s prophetic words burn loudly in memory: All animals are created equal, but some animals are more equal than others.
Especially PigMen, George!
As long as so many people benefit from the status quo, which includes our relatives, friends, neighbors– the “thems” are basically “us”– it’s pretty impossible to change the system until it actually explodes. And it only take a minority of people to initiate revolution, since so many are just trying to get by. We excoriate politicians and wall streeters, yet the general population is also committed to acts of greed and gaming the system whichever way they can.
“We excoriate politicians and wall streeters, yet the general population is also committed to acts of greed and gaming the system whichever way they can.”
I have no problem with that, provided (1) any gaming is subject to a rule of law with a credible and vigorous system of enforcement; (2) any institution which is so large that it is too-big-to-fail is broken up into a bunch of smaller, independent institutions, any of whose failure would not threaten the global economic system.
Fix those problems and you will have gone a long way towards fixing the financial system.
The ultimate bottom line was that until you get a more intelligent, thoughtful, and well-informed electorate - about 5% of our population - we are stuck with the corrupt, incompetent political class that has become entrenched at all levels of local, state, and Federal government. The players may come and go but the game will stay the same.
Had to restate this and also reinforce what PB said regarding fixing the problems.
systemic solution, does not appear to be forthcoming ??
Calm before the storm ?? Are we in the eye ??
“Are we in the eye?”
Sounds about right…it’s a far bigger and more dangerous storm than a garden variety post WWII recession.
Summers and Paulson (individually) were recently interviewed by Charlie Rose. I didn’t see either interview.
“The ’shadow inventory’ of housing is what worries Tal most, and has him calling for another decline in prices of five to 10 per cent over the next two years. While conventional inventories are trending lower, there are close to two million mortgages that are more than 90 days delinquent, nearly half of which will end up in foreclosure. Add another 2.3 million properties that are already in foreclosure to existing properties on the market, and you have inventory totalling more than eight million units, a record high 16 months of supply.”
The most amazing aspect of the housing bust from my standpoint is that we have been talking about excess inventory almost since the inception of this blog. In fact, due to overuse syndrome, I have pretty much dropped my earlier metaphor of an “elephant under the living room rug” originally used to describe the huge newly-constructed supply around San Diego of oversized homes and luxury condos for which it was clear their were not enough corporate executives or trust fund babies around to populate all of them and later to describe a growing mass of foreclosed or soon-to-be-in-foreclosure homes headed for the REO category, whether on or off bank balance sheets.
I can only guess how many oversized, overpriced San Diego housing units are currently owner-occupied versus bank-owned or investor-owned, and what share of the owner-occupied portion qualifies as shadow inventory because the owner does not have the financial means to pay off the purchase loan, but I am quite sure a careful tally would reveal a shadow inventory of million-dollar-plus homes around San Diego numbering in the thousands.
For illustrative purposes, I just did a search on ZipRealty dot com. They show a current (non-shadow) San Diego County inventory of SFRs + condos of 7,487 homes (a surprisingly low number in and of itself for a county with roughly 1,000,000 housing units spread over 3,000,000 people); of these, 1,590 (twenty-one percent) are listed for sale at over $1m.
Now if you are willing to entertain the conjectures that (1) 7,487 might be an unrepresentatively low-end estimate of the actual number of homes in the possession of someone with no use for them other than to sell to somebody who does, and (2) that these additional homes have a similar price structure to those in the ZipRealty listings, then one might guess there are actually many more than 1,590 $1m+ homes for sale, weighing down the prices of everything below at a point in local economic history when few are in the mood for speculating on high-end real estate.
For instance, if there are, say, another 20,000 San Diego County homes in the ‘currently or soon-to-be for sale but not MLS listed’ category and twenty-one percent of these fall into the $1m+ category, that would be an additional 4,200 $1m+ homes in shadow inventory. I just made up the 20,000 figure for illustration purposes, but I believe the order of magnitude is correct.
“The ’shadow inventory’ of housing is what worries Tal most, and has him calling for another decline in prices of five to 10 per cent over the next two years.”
Considering the excess supply of housing and the moribund economy and associated jobs and wages, that number looks too low. Why couldn’t/shouldn’t there be additional percentage price declines on par with those that have already occurred, at least in some markets. San Diego would appear to be a prime market where that could occur.
I would think this next leg down will result in additional large percentage price declines in the more desirable areas, and take some of the less desirable areas closer to zero.
This next leg down should take out a whole new set of investors that jumped in thinking the bottom was in and recovery was just around the corner. It’s going to be very ugly for some.
take out a whole new set of investors that jumped in ??
If they are in fact “investors” and not “specuvestors” then they are probably not much concerned about a bottom…The former perceives value so they buy…The problem for them going forward may be the ROI that they anticipated through rental income…Rents are falling fast and may not recover for a very long time given the state of affairs in our economy and government…
“If they are in fact “investors” and not “specuvestors” then they are probably not much concerned about a bottom…”
I wouldn’t necessarily put them in the category of the bubble era flippers, but there seem to be more than a few neophyte undercapitalized smaller “investors” that have bought properties for investment purposes rather than to personally occupy. They may have a slightly longer timeline in mind to hold the properties than a flipper, but I don’t think this will end well for many of them. In the end, they could lose their investments properties as well as the property they were occupying. As they go down, this will further reduce the potential buyer pool.
undercapitalized smaller “investors” ??
Key word; “undercapitalized”…
And, because of that I consider them more “Specuvestor” than “Investor” and the falling rents will likely take the former out where the later will just receive a lower rate of return…
“Business was so good, Realtors almost didn’t have to work to find buyers, said McDaniel. ‘They didn’t have to advertise, they didn’t have to do anything; everything was selling so quickly,’ she said. ‘A lot of people got into the business because it was easy … it’s not easy now.’”
“Would you like fries with that ?”
Call Darrell
He’s offering 10% monthly on 50k. If he can’t sell the flips, he’ll rent them out. Your money is secured with his flips.
Now I know why they invented Craigslist.
It’s funny !
http://milwaukee.craigslist.org/reo/1588479982.html
Greg — I assume the “additional ten percent” is some kind of national average. Future declines to reach fundamental equilibrium price levels would tend to be larger than average in former bubble zones like San Diego.
I work with two such knife catchers who, in 2008, gleefully bought several “investment properties” in Cleveland. Several evictions and $500.00 water bills later, both are talking to their attorneys about the big B. Seems their $25K “steals” are worth less than $10k now….
What a scary though a $25K house was overpriced….
Only lost sixty percent on their “steals,” did they?
BwaHaHAHAHahaHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAAAAAAAAAAAA!!!!
P.S. If they borrowed the money to make their “investments”, then the percentage of the skin they put into the game and lost was over sixty percent…
Having owned a wonderful Section 8 slum home in the 80’s with an Iranian computer programmer ( yeah, I know ), I could have told the $25,000 home “investors” didn’t understand what they were getting into at all. People who have to do the Section 8 thing, by and large, don’t have checking accounts or understand them, may have spouses selling drugs out the back door, as a plumber sent to fix some damaged pipes told me was happening at our rental, and will call up landlords ( stupid ones like me ) telling them that their kids flushed toys down the toilet ( only to find it was taken up partway and crookedly standing on it’s bolts ) and wanting to know when I was going to put up screams and a scream door (screens). Oh, the saga of Myrtis Betts. Her next landlord was really out of luck, because one of her kids set fire to that house. Really, really.
It was actually pretty funny. In 1985 or so, we paid $10000 for the wonderful POS in Kalamazoo in a very poor area, with $2000 down on a land contract. I only lost $1000 (my downpayment) and my sanity, and signed the whole shebang over to Iranian guy (who was always going to the beach when it was his turn to collect the rent or go and pay the taxes ). How cool for me to get some valuable life experience for a mere $1000. Lessons learned, at least. I still chuckle about what an ass I was.
A recent survey of ForeclosureRadar dot com indicated that there were about 140 properties in distress in my zip code which is a nice area of LA, but not a great one.
Then a zip code search encompassing the east Hollywood Hills was made and for the first time since this whole thing started, there were more properties in distress - 160, in this higher end area.
When I first started checking these areas, there’d be 100 in my area and maybe 2 - 5 in the Hollywood Hills.
I’m thinking people who were hanging on by their fingernails can’t any longer and/or strategic defaults are becoming more common.
As high as the prices are in SD, extend and pretend could go on forever. Why would they want to let the market adjust on its own just for the likes of renters and HBBers? They’d rather use the bulldozer or just let them rot, keeping the values up at all cost. Remember cash4clunkers? Get a subsidy to destroy the less desirable older stuff to help pay for the new…It doesn’t make much sense (how could society become richer by destroying usable property?!), but it makes me think the next round of housing stimulus could be something similar, supply destruction to help balance the demand destruction. “Submit your crapshack to the wrecking ball and get a new McMansion!” Between that and Helicopter Ben we can save the FBs! Sorry savers and renters, better luck next time (or you can move to Detroit or Cleveland or something if you want that true market feeling).
“They’d rather use the bulldozer or just let them rot, keeping the values up at all cost.”
The downside: They will price out their future labor force from the housing market, and San Diego will become a backwater. (Oops — already too late!)
“Economists there and on Wall Street didn’t anticipate that bubble-busting measures would cause housing prices nationally to retreat, he said. Rather, they saw price increases continuing, but at moderate, historic rates of 2 to 3 percent annually.”
The all-powerful, all-knowing Fed proved itself utterly incapable of hitting the side of a barn with their housing price forecast.
I suppose their abject failure to forecast the housing price trajectory would be at least somewhat excusable if they had fewer levers to pull by which to manipulate housing prices through a combination of above- and below-board financial engineering measures.
“Economists there and on Wall Street didn’t anticipate that bubble-busting measures would cause housing prices nationally to retreat, he said. Rather, they saw price increases continuing, but at moderate, historic rates of 2 to 3 percent annually.”
How, on earth, did they think people would afford those prices on current salaries? Economists, Wall Streeters, and politicians are completely detached from reality. They’ve been financially insulated for so long they assume everyone has it so easy. I see this in a certain member of my own family who can afford to do anything in the world her heart desires, so she thinks all are equally blessed.
“How, on earth, did they think people would afford those prices on current salaries?”
Perhaps they assumed the Fed could use its money press to support home prices if nothing else sufficed?
“Economists there and on Wall Street didn’t anticipate that bubble-busting measures would cause housing prices nationally to retreat, he said. Rather, they saw price increases continuing, but at moderate, historic rates of 2 to 3 percent annually.”
———————–
And these are the people who are now being called upon to “fix” the housing “crisis.”
Of all the people who DID get it right, have we heard a single example of one of them (people from the blogs or even Stephen Roach or Peter Schiff, among many others) being called to D.C. to help find a solution to the “problem”?
“we’re seeing more buyers”….”prices are stabilizing”…Somehow those glib comments don’t bug me like the “inventory levels are down to 2005″ levels. Ha! I don’t have a particularly huge circle of friends but I know of three that are planning to relist their homes for sale in the spring, having been unsuccesful over the past couple years.
I have long awaited the falling out between bankersters/lenders, city assessors/state taxmen, borrowers/debtslaves/speculators and the MSM here in Wisconsin. We have a great RE unraveling game coming to towns near you.
They were all great friends and dancing in the streets when the EZ housing and developement money was pouring in. Now that there is REAL money to be lost, they have had a faliing out and are they’re starting to go after each other and neither want the “valuable” properties or land. They all want payment in US Dollars, nothing else
Foreclosure suit targets Franklin development site
By Tom Daykin of the Journal Sentinel
Posted: Feb. 5, 2010
Land and Space
A foreclosure suit targeting a development site in Franklin is proceeding, even as the property’s owner tries to give the land to the bank that is suing him.
Fountains of Franklin LLC, owned by developer David Hintzman, is delinquent on a $1.6 million loan from M&I Bank, according to the lawsuit filed in Milwaukee County Circuit Court.
The loan is secured with a 9.5-acre parcel at 5610 W. Rawson Ave., said Russell Long, the bank’s attorney.
Hintzman personally guaranteed the loan, which was due Sept. 1, according to court records.
Fountains of Franklin, in its defense, said the land is worth substantially more than the amount owed.
Hintzman offered to give the land to M&I to prevent a foreclosure suit, court documents said.
The bank declined that offer, which Fountains of Franklin says amounts to bargaining in bad faith.
Long, however, said M&I is not obligated to accept property instead of filing a foreclosure suit…”
http://tinyurl.com/ykc7ova
The link to the second, related article is enlightening.
Hintzman appears to be a typical scumbag bubble era developer. First he tries to strong arm the couple on the property next to his. When they won’t roll over, he tries to stiff the lender.
This is so infuriating. How many legitimate businesses were destroyed to make room for more bubble era development of questionable merit?
Plenty. My favorite burger place in Tampa was razed in 2006 to clear the area for a planned development of cheap “luxury” condos, townhomes, and single-family houses totally inappropriate in terms of style and price. The project went bankrupt. The restaurant has not returned.
How many legitimate businesses were destroyed to make room for more bubble era development of questionable merit?
Wal Mart.
“Now, I just have to lay back and watch the wheels spin off the wagon. I’m like a guy in a kayak going over a waterfall…at first the view’s interesting and it’s pretty exciting but the conclusion is very questionable.”
Nice poetry. Like the extreme sport analogy. Or did they finally stop the assisted suicide of going over waterfalls in kayaks. Are we going to insure these guys? Free healthcare for all!
I think Ben mentioned this many times. Lots of us spent time railing about the Fed and fighting against the bubble. Too many people were cashing in on the way up. I remember getting real excited back in the 90s telling people to buy gold. Was too early on the call. Screaming out reserve requirements changes with Greeny. Going nuts about NAFTA and China becoming most favored trade status. Then the housing bubble…
I didn’t understand until too late how bad things were going to be on the downside. We still have the CRE collapse, condo situation and Option Arm fiasco to get through. Plus deal with fools like Maxine Waters.
Deflation all around us for now. The high unemployment screams falling wages in the future and deflation. Meanwhile the devaluation efforts in the background.
““Robert Fox, a veteran Charlotte banker who’s president at NewDominion…describes the housing collapse and disputes between builders and developers as ‘a dangerous combination.’ And with real estate lending such a big part of banking in Charlotte, most lenders suffered when the dominos started to fall.”
Hush sweet Charlotte. I remember the tales of “it’s different here” especially as Charlotte and Seattle were two of the last holdouts in the demolition derby known as the bursting of the housing bubble.
The second best day of my life was the day we bought our large house in South Charlotte. The best day of my life was the day we sold it.
That house has really become an illustration of the bubble for me. We paid $265,000 for it in 2003. We sold it for $305,000 in 2005 (whew). It then proceeded to climb near the $400,000 mark. Who cares? I think the Zestimate topped out a little over $380,000.
The new owners put it on the market in 2008 as the bubble was deflating. Of course they weren’t going to give it away. They listed it at $370,000. If they had listed at $350,000 they probably could have sold it quickly. Of course it was worth $370,000, it had granite counter-tops. I think about those formica counter-tops and their premature passing and it makes me sad.
They began chasing the market down. The price drops came but never enough to actually hit the market. They dropped it to $350,000 and “Boom” the listing was gone. Did it sell?
No, it didn’t sell. It was just re-listed for $360,000. That fresh listing put $10,000 worth of value back in. The price kept creeping down again. Finally it was listed at $339,900. Thank goodness, I don’t think anybody would have paid $340,000 for it by that time. After a little while the house went Inactive. Did it sell?
For months there was no re-listing. Of course it sold. So I decided to google our old address. Google returned an entry that read, “House for Rent”. Brilliant. They are now accidental landlords of a house over 3,000 square feet. Do you think their tenants could do any damage?
The current Zestimate is now $318,500. Wait. I spoke too soon. That was the Zestimate of four days ago. This morning the Zestimate is $317,500.
I love the smell of falling real estate prices in the morning. It smells like sanity.
I also watched the house I sold in early ‘07 for 285K get creamed. That put it up a year later for 325K (I don’t think they ever moved in, they didn’t do anything to it except let the yard die), all while the market was starting its slow deflation. They probably could have sold it immediately for around 275K. Anyway they slowly chased the market down and eventually sold it for 240K.
Zeus,
I’m with you on greatly decentralizing government. I’d go further below the county level. In my 32 years of being a libertarian, I was mostly a “L”ibertarian. I now am returning to the idea of dropping out of the political process completely.
One advantage of this is I won’t get picked on jury duty (by not voting). My company would not compensate me to serve on a jury anyway. I can become more efficient by working around government and not trying to persuade everyone to be like myself.
Another advantage is that by not donating money to a candidate, my name, company, and address, and who I like in a candidate will not show up on internet. I found that out the hard way.
Yes, all politics is local. I am working to keep it down to my neighborhood level, which is in an apartment building.
Some things we have to do because of federal law, but I will be dragging and kicking all the way, so that I could be a thorn in their side. Never volunteer to give government any more power than they have. Remove the sanction to groups of thugs insisting that they can control your individual liberty.
I am in big ol’ Los Angeles, and I am not worried about a New Orleans style of looting and violence when the SHTF. I think people can quickly get used to being responsible when they have to, and they will learn fast that they have to get along with each other (not sacrifice to each other) and self-police in order to survive. 99.99% of the people are aware that “everyone will leave me alone if I respect their rights to life, liberty, and the pursuit of happiness.”
I am in big ol’ Los Angeles, and I am not worried about a New Orleans style of looting and violence when the SHTF. I think people can quickly get used to being responsible when they have to, and they will learn fast that they have to get along with each other (not sacrifice to each other) and self-police in order to survive.
Bill,
Either you’re being tongue-in-cheek, or (uncharacteristically for a political independent) you’ve become a dewy-eyed innocent of the sort who actually believed Obama would bring hope ‘n change. The dystopia in LA is never far from the surface - any natural disaster such as an earthquake will summon it forth in all its fury.
Let’s balance his “vision” with a comment from this guy: Reginald Denny
That’s what I was thinking as I read Bill’s post.
IMHO, LA is one of the worst places to be when the SHTF.
believed Obama would bring hope ‘n change ??
Quit complaining…Run better candidates next time so the electorate has a better alternative…It was a vote by default/rejection…McCain/Palin ?? That was just sick…
I voted for Ron Paul, who unlike the other contenders relied on small private donations. As I’ve said, the choice this time wasn’t between Bad and Worse - it was between Appalling (Obama/Biden) and ghastly (McSame/Palin).
Well, you are all skrood as the Supremes have just stated in Black and White that all politicians are now legally paid for by Corporatists. And do not lump unions into that bunch because even if you lumped all unions and all their meager monies into the pile on one day, you wouldn’t get one iota close to what major worldwide corporate monopolies and special interests can now Legally Bankroll in five minutes. And Bila, you and anyone else who deems you are to special to vote, can just move away now. You are then going to see yourself in another late 1920s in deutschland mein freund.
If you can’t participate, then you shouldn’t gripe.
Little d democracy is losing ground as so many entitled Americans either ignore elections and choose not to learn pertinent local, state, and national as well as worldwide issues that affect their current and future well being.
I sent money to Ron Paul on several occasions…
I was this close [...] to sending money to a politician…then gasoline went to $4.60 per gallon,
Gasoline ?? You have a motor on that buggy Hwy ??
I’m “reformed”
Did Dr. Paul personally thank you?
what about taking most of the money OUT of the electoral system by using a dollar-per-vote system for political parties? You get a vote, you get a buck for your advertising and promotion. No more, no less and campaign contributions will be illegal.
That’s really a great system to lock in the present parties. How would a new party ever get traction? Same old, same old.
Just Six Dollars dot org
And throw out the supremes. They are paid off.
Hope & Change = Coins in your pocket.
Gee bill,
i hope you don’t find yourself being judged by a jury, only to find it’s 12 people of inordinately low intelligence/interest in paying attention to the proceedings.
“dropping out” hardly seems like a solution whether its nationally or locally. I started petitioning for the Libertarians when I was 15. I thought Libertarians were motivated by something other than an expectation that their efforts would elect their candidates or see their views implemented. I never voted for a candidate that won an election until i voted against Mcsame/Failin’ (i.e. for Obama) For me, it was all about sleeping well at night knowing that I had done what I could to make things better. I guess some people get that kind of inner peace from a loaded weapon or extra ammo. I for one don’t understand it, though.
Same here. It irks me when otherwise responsible, intelligent people try to get out of jury duty. Given rampant “win at any cost” prosecutorial zeal (and misconduct) and the ease with which silver-tongued criminal defense attorneys can sway dimwit jurors, jury duty should be viewed as a core civic duty.
Bill, please rent the movie “Twelve Angry Men” this weekend. The black & white original, not the remake. Henry Fonda was brilliant as the conscience of a jury that “knew” a defendant was guilty. Then tell me you’d still weasel out of jury duty, knowing your presence could potentially make a difference.
I’ve done jury duty a lot (criminal, civil, grand), as in NYS they you can postpone but not avoid unless you have a compelling reason. Spent a few interesting days in the jury pool that included a Physics Phd, fellow office drones and a cop (they are no longer exempted).
A look at the system was an educational and informative experience.
On the ones where I was part of a jury that deliberated, was grateful to see that people took it pretty seriously .
BILA, the groundrules may be different for employees vs. contractors.
You have cited many of the personal advantages of being a contractor: your billing rates, the flexibility of posting during billing hours, etc.
Hire on as an employee, where the leash is a bit shorter, and you’ll get paid for jury duty.
Until then, don’t whine about giving back. Consider it payback for the weeks you spend on the clock while tuning your portfolio and bragging about it here.
I was open to jury duty too until I found out that many companies pay full salary for their employees to go on jury duty. BUT MINE DOES NOT PAY AT ALL.
DOES YOURS?
I LOSE MONEY AND HAVE TO PAY TO SIT ON JURY DUTY.
The employees of the client I work for get paid full salary to sit on a jury. found this out only recently. I was astounded! And since I don’t get any pay, I’m bitter. $92 per hour lost every hour I serve.
Two words: Civic duty.
There is no “duty.” I am not a slave. My father fought in WWII and lost his eyesight from the war - when I was a teenager he made darn sure to discourage me from going into the military. Again you did not say if your company pays you for being a jury slave Sammy.
Bill, you are an independent contractor. You don’t have a company. You have a client. If you want to have a company and get benefits such as pay for jury duty, other types of paid time off, group health insurance, the right to collect unemployment insurance if you are laid off, etc. then get hired as an employee and take the hourly pay cut.
The judicial system has to function whether everyone is an independent contractor or not.
Oh, and it depends on the state, but not all jury pools are put together from voter roles. There are other lists they can use.
They do, for a certain number of hours. But if a case goes beyond that I’d be doing unpaid duty. I wouldn’t look at it as being a slave. I don’t have much faith in our justice system, and I’d try to do my best to see that fellow citizens, or human beings anyway, received a fair trial and a just verdict. To me that’s an honor, not something to be avoided. But I can see where you’d be giving up more than I would, so I understand the objection.
Polly, I calculate all the loss of benefits (by contracting instead of being a salaried employee) in my spreadsheet to determine my proper hourly rate. However I do not compensate for jury duty. How could I? It is random selection and the time on jury duty could vary from half a day to a week or more! If I could be picked regularly the same amount of days per year, then I could increase my hourly rate I demand to make up for it, the way I make up for having no paid vacation.
Since this is not possible, I choose not to be a jury slave.
Bill, there are some things in life that transcend pecuniary (look it up) considerations.
And since I don’t get any pay, I’m bitter.
Thank you Bill that is all I need to know.
Bill in Los Angeles
I think someone in your situation would be entitled to a hardship exemption. No judge or lawyer would want someone serving who would have legitimate reason to not be there and a possibly be biased because of it.
Question:
Does civic duty include returning any and all Social Security checks?
I served on a jury in Seattle in 2003. It was truly an awesome and eye opening experience. I was jury foreman; all the people on the panel were interested in the testimony, were thoughtful, were conscientious, were observant, and questioned everything. We found the defendant not guilty, and agreed to compensation for time he had spent in jail after not having money for bail. The persecutions case was disgraceful and never should have been brought. I have to say that the look in that man’s eyes when said not guilty on count after count was something I will always remember. The amazing thing was that all of us, all twelve of us, men, women, retired, working, whatever, had exactly the same thoughts about the case. We were not allowed to discuss anything until the case was given to us for deliberation; I was determined that I would not find this man guilty and was ready to be the lone holdout, but amazingly enough, everyone had come to the same conclusion. We made a difference for someone who was being railroaded by the state. I wanted us to make a statement to the court that the prosecutor should be admonished for bringing a stupid and sloppy case, but never went that far. It was just business as usual for them, with no investigation and no thought. Jurists pointed out holes in the testimony that even the defense didn’t see. This really worked. Not getting paid for jury duty? Is that all there is? Is that all that matters? You should think about your responsibilities as a citizen. There are things more important than money.
Bill,
I am retired and recently fulfilled my obligation to serve jury duty. Screw the money. It was triple murder 1 involving gangs and took over two weeks. We ended up hung. Takes a hell of a toll emotionally. I do not care what you think you are worth. I may have been worth more when I was the foreman on a jury in the 3rd District Federal Court in L.A. at the height of my career. Who cares? We all need to step up.
Man up!
It is all our Civic Duty to step up.
Otherwise, one does not deserve all the aid and protection that are inherent in our day to day lives, whether you ask for it or not. Otherwise, be a consultant in the former ussr.
during a period which brought not only the Rodney King riots (aka blood in the streets) but also the 1994 Northridge earthquake and the O J Simpson ochen horror show( murder case. Fun times!
Hey, I lived in LA during all of that. The day the verdict came down my LA friend said there was going to be rioting. I didn’t believe it but luckily we were stocked up on Trader Joe booze and even toilet paper now that I think of it.
I had been working earlier that same day close to South Central. During the curfew with smoke in the air, the video rental stores were sold out. The OJ slow speed car chase was funnier than the Northridge quake.
I’ve been called for jury duty four times in my life and would be happy to serve.
However, during voir dire I have always been asked something to the effect that “Will you commit to apply the law as written if the case is proved” and I respond (truthfully) that my reasons to acquit or convict are mine alone, and that I recognize the right of jury nullification.
It’s amazing how quickly I get dropped from the panel.
Dropping out is the only sane option. We inhabit a country in which the vast majority of the population is willfully stupid. Democracy is meaningless in such a place.
Civilization is meaningless in a social democracy. I don’t know why any European would consider themselves civil people by joining a party called the Social Democrats! That is the real meaning behind “Democracy is two wolves and a sheep voting on what’s for lunch.”
When you have a dumbed down public as the majority of voters, and the educated ones drop out of all institutions, (marriage, reproducing, voting, home ownership), you have the extreme stages of social decay. The only way to cure it is to hasten the end stages, which is what I’m doing and hundreds of thousands of childless college-educated boomers are doing. It’s a big fight uphill from here, but it is a losing battle in the advanced stages of Democracy.
The only way to make Democracy work is by making darned sure everyone is super educated and intelligent enough to understand the common good. Fifteen years ago a colleague convinced me that childless taxpayers benefit from an educated society. The only problem is that public education is failing. I keep my hopes alive though, and still do not complain about my taxes paying for education. But it’s probably also a losing battle.
I am in big ol’ Los Angeles, and I am not worried about a New Orleans style of looting and violence when the SHTF.
Now that’s funny.
Are you rationally worried about Rodney King style looting and violence?
“Wednesday April 29, 1992″
That was just over one year after the early 1990s U.S. recession had officially ended (March 1991). Unfortunately, the recession went on and on in California, during a period which brought not only the Rodney King riots (aka blood in the streets) but also the 1994 Northridge earthquake and the O J Simpson ochen horror show( murder case. Fun times!
I am thinking a few similar events might have to play out in the present episode before the LA housing market finally bottoms out. Of course, LA citizens are not noted for the strength of their collective memory; you can bet many of them will be heard saying “no one could have seen it coming” when similar scenarios ensue in the next few years.
* I threw in that one in honor of OlyGal; she would have enjoyed the cultural reference.
“Later, both the Brown and Goldman families sued Simpson for damages in a civil trial. On February 5, 1997, the jury unanimously found there was a preponderance of evidence to find Simpson liable for damages in the wrongful death of Goldman and battery of Brown. In its conclusions, the jury effectively found Simpson liable for the death of his ex-wife and Ron Goldman.[10] On February 21, 2008, a Los Angeles court upheld a renewal of the civil judgment against him.”
Can anyone who grasps the law better than I do please motivate a scenario whereby O. J. could have been guilty of ‘wrongful death’ by knife stab wounds of his ex-wife and her lover but nonetheless innocent of murdering them?
Me confused…
That “jury of his peers” was going to let him walk regardless of the strength of the evidence against him.
Civil trials require the case to be proved by a “preponderance of the evidence.” Criminal trials require the case to be proved beyond a reasonable doubt. Big difference.
You can’t be found “innocent” in a US court proceeding. All that anyone can say is that the prosecutor or plaintif failed to prove the case against you to the standard required by the proceeding.
I heard Alan Dershowitz explain the science they used to prove that the police tampered with the evidence. It was pretty convincing, though I’d have to know more about the times involved to be absolutely certain of the tampering. That sort of evidence is easily enough to cause a rational juror to have reasonable doubt. Not enough to change a person’s mind if they are just looking at preponderance of the evivdence standard (IMO), but reasonable doubt? Sure.
From what I have read the LAPD pinned some evidence on a guilty man…that was plenty for a sympathetic jury to let him walk
preponderance of the evidence v beyond a reasonable doubt
well done polly . hope everybody is clear on that. It’s kind of an important notion to grasp.
“From what I have read the LAPD pinned some evidence on a guilty man…that was plenty for a sympathetic jury to let him walk”
I suppose poorly educated jurors could easily misconstrue the presence of some evidence that was clearly planted by corrupt cops as reason to acquit the defendant. The rest of the case seemed to meet the ‘beyond a reasonable doubt’ standard from what I saw and read. The most basic facts — such as why an innocent man would choose to flee — seem to have been overlooked.
“I heard Alan Dershowitz explain the science they used to prove that the police tampered with the evidence.”
I will reveal my abysmal ignorance of basic legal principles here. If a case involved some evidence which was clearly tampered with and other evidence that clearly was not, and the latter evidence strongly pointed to the defendant’s guilt, which is supposed to determine the outcome? That is, should the defendant be acquitted, due to presence of some tampered evidence, or should he be convicted, based on the untampered evidence that suggests the defendant was guilty? Or does the jury have carte blanche to decide based on its own subjective standards of evidence?
The jury is allowed to use its judgement. If it is clear that some of the evidence that was supposedly collected by the police at the scene was actually invented by the police, a reasonable jury could easily conclude that none of the evidence collected by the police is credible. Once all the crime scene evidence is not credible, you have very little left to get to guilt beyond a reasonable doubt. That is a very high standard. You have to acquit unless you have no doubts about the defendant’s guilt or your only doubts about guilt are “unreasonable.”
By the way, the prosecutors did a crummy job on this case too. But what the police did was criminal. You don’t invent evidence out of thin air. I believe OJ did it. I also believe the jury decision was the correct one. I didn’t follow the trial closely, but I do think there was reasonable doubt and more in the case that was brought to trial.
and other evidence that clearly was not,
that’s the nut…if they rigged some of it , couldn’t they have fixed it all?
of course it’s possible to see past a rogue cop’s bad acts. it is entirely subjective though PB. “jury nullification” does exist.
i don’t know if that’s what happened in O.J.’s case but it certainly can happen.
i.e. good-samritan, harmless defendant charged with marijuanna possesion in a jursidiction that punishes with heavy jailtime might be dead to rights guilty— a sympathetic jury could acquit and there’s nothing the state could do about it.
One of the weirder connections in my life is that I once ran the board for the radio show that Mark Fuhrman had in later years. (I heard several episodes of that show; most of it was fairly commonsensical “how to protect yourself from common crimes” advice.)
He asked me questions during the break. They were all pretty much the standard “What do you want to do with your life” questions, but mighod, the man had been a policeman for so long it felt like an interrogation.
Are you rationally worried about Rodney King style looting and violence?
Depends on your definition of SHTF. By my definition, yes, although your “rationally” qualifier maybe makes me ineligible to judge my own worries :-).
Bill in Los Angeles
IIRC, in Ca, they use both the Ca Drivers License, and voter’s registration, as the data base for jury duty.
“One advantage of this is I won’t get picked on jury duty (by not voting).”
before the techies lynch me, it’s “database”.
Got an Arizona license. Umm…Legitimately have an apartment in AZ and pay utilities there. If I lived on the beach in LA I would be nabbed by the cops for having an out of state license if they see me often enough. But here a mile inland I park along cars that have been here over a year with license plates from Michigan, Arkansas, Florida, and so on. The idea is to keep the car garaged.
In Arizona the jury selections are from the voting, not from the auto registration. Last time I was selected for jury duty was 2002 but I must have voted in a municipal election.
See http://www.ftb.ca.gov/forms/03_forms/03_1031pub.pdf
Page three says you are presumed to be a resident of Califirnia in any tax year in which you spend more than nine months in CA.
And you are almost certainly required to reregister your car. This is from the DMV site:
Fees must be paid within 20 days of entry or residency to avoid penalties. Any vehicle owned by a California resident must be registered within 20 days of entry into California unless a special permit was obtained. Nonresidents whose vehicles are properly registered to them in their home state or jurisdiction may operate their vehicles in California until they:
Accept gainful employment in California.
Claim a homeowner’s exemption in California.
Rent or lease a residence in California.
etc.
All you can say so far, Bill, is that you haven’t been caught. If CA gets desparate enough tfor cash, they might catch up with you.
True about licensing being a big deal to CA. A friend of mine had to pay a fine and license his car to California. But he was living in Hermosa Beach. The busybody cops looking for license issues find them along the beach. They rarely find them a mile away in parking garages. Like I said, there are several long time out of state license plates in the apartment complex I live in. I’ve been in the same complex (different units) off and on since the Fall of 2003.
Better yet, I lived a span of three years before in LA with the same Arizona plate and never got stopped by a busy body cop. Cops here in LA are too busy looking for the severely dangerous people, such as prostitutes, johns, and marijuana smokers
.
I file a California non-resident tax return, school-marm Polly, have done so five years since 2003 tax year so I’m fine.
So, school marm, do you want me to send you my address info so you can “tattle tale” to your beloved state of CA? LOL
BTW: I do not ever spend a continuous 9 months in Californa. I go home to Phoenix every few weeks. So I’m laughing at you. I follow the directions on my Turbo Tax program and it tells me I’m a non-resident of CA.
School marm!
Oh, and it helps that I pay ALL of my Arizona state income taxes I owe. California gives AZ residents tax credits. (also Oregon, and I think Indiana, Guam, and Puerto Rico). Since AZ recognizes me as a resident, I cannot also be a resident of CA. And California accepts that. Again more power to me.
I guess you did not spend enough time studying me, and my situation. I though you knew everything about me,school marm.
The link says nothing about the 9 months being continuous. Just being present in the state for 9 months during the year. You are breaking CA law, Bill. You are a CA resident by their definition. If they figure that out, you are going to have to pay CA taxes on that Roth IRA election you plan to make this year and all of your investment income too. If they consider your claim to be a non-resident to be fraud, you could be on the hook for having to pay up for years and years to come.
CA could have a way for you to request a ruling about whether you are a resident or not. You might want to look into it.
Hey Bill,
i think polly was just pointing out the law (for which i feel a degree of enlightenment and gratitude). I am sure she knows that people make their own decisions and live with it. Best of luck with yours.
Do LA cops really bust pot smokers?
Not a resident according to how my Turbo Tax presents the issue Polly. And you conveniently fail to mention my AZ residence status. I am not a dual resident of two states. Only one. CALIFORNIA GIVES AZ THE TAX CREDIT BECAUSE i PAY MY FULL DUE AZ STATE INCOME TAXES. CA COULD NOT REGARD ME AS A RESIDENT ACCORDING TO TURBO TAX.
I had 7 years to study this. I know better my situation than you do. You are a school marm. It’s a good idea to stop making accusations without knowing your subject.
As for Roth conversion, AZ will tax me fully on what it’s owed. California will get peanuts compared to what I give Arizona in 2011.
Polly has no reading comprehension. She assumes I pay 0 state income taxes in California. That is false. I pay California income taxes. But they are very miniscule because I get full credit for my Arizona state income taxes.
She speaks on subjects SHE KNOWS NOTHING OF.
“Polly has no reading comprehension…She speaks on subjects SHE KNOWS NOTHING OF.”
Wrong, again. Polly is wicked smart, civil, and speaks from a position of knowledge. You, on the other hand, are petty, and throw around baseless assertions in anger after getting schooled by a woman with more class than you’d know what to do with.
You, on the other hand, are petty, and throw around baseless assertions in anger
+1
+2. And the virgin who protesteth her virginity too much is no virgin. You know you’re doing wrong. You just don’t want to admit it.
Plus there was a law passed that ruled in particular on professional athletes that even though they claim residency in one state, they earn substantial income pro rata in another city/state of which they have to pay tax on that earned income.
Since I am not a pro athlete, I don’t know what happened after it was ruled on and where it is today.
“I am in big ol’ Los Angeles, and I am not worried about a New Orleans style of looting and violence when the SHTF.”
Yeah, it’s different in L.A. than New Orleans. When they loot in L.A., they usually don’t have to drag the goods through flood waters.
I guess you missed the riots there in the 60s and 90s. L.A.’s a bigger tinder box than New Orleans ever was. Just wait for the next big earthquake. I don’t think you’ll find any shortage of looting afterward.
“Can’t we all just get along?” - Rodney King
“No We Can’t”
(= the ugly flip side of “Yes We Can”).
And every time I see “Yes, we can!” I am reminded of Bob the Builder (kids cartoon) - it really doesn’t strike the right tone for me
Barack the Builder
“Can we fix it?”
Barack the Builder
“Yes we can!”
Do you think the geniuses in the PR consulting firm that worked on the Obama campaign made that connection?
I think everyone is too afraid to say anything - wouldn’t you just love to be the fly on the wall when someone finally has the guts to point it out?
“…when someone finally has the guts to point it out?”
The emperor has no clothes!
“When they loot in L.A., they usually don’t have to drag the goods through flood waters.”
Also, rich white guys are in far greater abundance around LA than New Orleans, which makes them collectively more susceptible to violence.
Rich crackers and their bling are soon parted…
“In a single transaction, about $110,000 went to his contracting company,”
Rewrite: (Similar but without committing “legal” fraud):
“In a single transaction, about $110,000 / $220,000 / $330,000 / $440,00 …went into their personal bank accounts as the ESCROW closed on their houses between 2001-2005″
For myself, this was, is and will always remain the “Root Cause” of the Housing Bubble DEBACLE in America.
The mechanisms & tools: 0% FED Rate…Wall St. MBS-o-Matic Slice & Dice…4% mortgage Interest…0% down…no income verification…blah,blah,blah
Two trains on opposite sides of the country, left their Depots on the same track…they gained momentum…somewhere in America …they collided head-on into a DISASTROUS pile of smoke, carnage, twisted finances, broken dreams, blood, sweat & tears…all that is left is the mangled GOLD nameplate that was riveted on the the ENGINES of both trains:
“Consequences, Schmonsequences, as long as I’m rich.” Daffy Duck
Good one HWY!
The Left: The great betrayal from the Left was that the Democrats abandoned the middle-class and gutted our job base for the benefit of the few.
The Right: The biggest betrayal from the Right was that the Republicans abandoned the middle-class and our job base for the benefit of the few.
Your points on the deficit and spending are right on. However the biggest error I see in some on the right’s thinking is their inability to understand that their past perceptions regarding lazy vs productive people are out of date when one looks at the job and life opportunities available now vs before. It is understandable though, because the PTB constantly propagandize in ways that take our eyes off this most important ball. That is their goal.
For example: Compare the American industrial base, factory jobs, pay scales, cost of living, health-care costs, job security, trade balance, education costs, outsourcing, contract work and pensions from 1973 to today’s 2010. It’s different here in 2010. It’s bad for the middle-class.
Most Americans are not lazy and looking for hand-outs, and those that say Americans are lazy are wrong. Americans are the world’s most productive workers but most Americans, most people, want and need plain old jobs. Most American’s are not cut out to be business owners or contract workers of which I’ve been both.
For the powerful to gut America’s economy and middle-class job base and then imply through their mouthpieces that we are lazy is adding devious, self-serving and insincere insult to a critical injury.
So part of the solution would be for all Americans, left and right to rightfully realize that the middle-class and working poor HAVE been given a raw deal the past 30 years. For an entire section of our political spectrum to ignore this fact does not bode well for them or for their country.
+1 Rio…Nice commentary…
Very nice post.
I like to say” First, I am an American, and second, I am a Political Atheist” . What’s truly good for the country, not a particular ideaology.
(Hwy lines up behind awaiting wipeout, polishing his Captain America shield, battered & dented but still “useful”…)
But does Hwy have on his deluxe rocket boosters, and his sexy fancy schmancy latex uniform, along with his special pill? (Popeye had spinach. The 21st century super hero has Viagra.)
Wasn’t there a TV cartoon (from Japan) that had the superhero smoking cigarettes (or something!) to get his super powers?
(Hwy lines up behind awaiting wipeout, polishing his Captain America shield, battered & dented but still “useful”…)
Humm…Err… Sorry Hwy, but there is NO way that I’m going into a good dive bar to toss a couple of beer with a guy in funny colored tights and a mask. No wonder you and your brother rumble in the parking lots.
The battered and dented shield, well that’s okay. Myself, I prefer a que stick and a light wooden chair.
;(
Captain America Comics #1 (March 1941) — on sale in December 1940, a year before the bombing of Pearl Harbor but a full year into World War II, showed the protagonist punching Nazi leader Adolf Hitler in the jaw — sold nearly one million copies.
Ask your Uncle to join us Mikey!
“…realize that the middle-class and working poor HAVE been given a raw deal the past 30 years.”
Yes, but look at what “They” kept everyone to be “concerned” about on a daily basis while they age on a spinning planet:
1. 401K
2. Life Insurance
3. April 15th
4. Health Insurance
5. Kindergarten GPA
6. HomeMoanership Society
7. Middleschool GPA
8. Mini-vans & SUV’s
9. High school GPA
10. MS Windows & cell phones
11. College SAT’s
12. April 15th
13. MBA’s & PHd’s
14. NBA MLB NFL
15. April 15th
Are our kids there yet?: Turn on, tune in, drop out
Are our kids there yet?: Turn on, tune in, drop out
For Clarification:
No, I didn’t mean seniors with a wii & faux news at the “resisdence” recreation center.
For those unfamiliar with Mr. Leary:
Leary explained in his 1983 autobiography Flashbacks:
‘Turn on’ meant go within to activate your neural and genetic equipment. Become sensitive to the many and various levels of consciousness and the specific triggers that engage them. Drugs were one way to accomplish this end.
‘Tune in’ meant interact harmoniously with the world around you - externalize, materialize, express your new internal perspectives. Drop out suggested an elective, selective, graceful process of detachment from involuntary or unconscious commitments.
‘Drop Out’ meant self-reliance, a discovery of one’s singularity, a commitment to mobility, choice, and change. Unhappily my explanations of this sequence of personal development were often misinterpreted to mean ‘Get stoned and abandon all constructive activity’.
+100000000000
Rio,
If you ever make it to an HBB gathering, I’m buying your drinks!
Thanks for another great post.
Today I’m in Orange County, CA. LA TV news is all about houses falling downhill in mudslides. National news is all about snow on the eastern seaboard. I just don’t understand how people buy “view” houses that burn in the summer and slide in the winter. Too much drama for me.
This article provides great insights to the thinking of men whose hubris leads them to believe there are no limits to their ability to control the world around them. I personally believe such insights transfer nicely to the mindset of government economic policy makers who believe it is possible to use market interventions to prevent asset price bubbles from collapsing.
The Control of Nature
Los Angeles Against the Mountains—I
by John McPhee
Oh, but it will be the government’s fault that the homeowners elected to buy homes on hillsides, and then taxpayers will have to foot the bill for the loss of their homes. That’s how we got into the big government game. The proverbial “I saw a huge hole in the ground, but the gob’t didn’t put I sign warning of the danger of a hole in the ground, so I walked into said hole anyway, I’m injured, pay up.” It’s a wonder we’re “allowed” to own kitchen knives.
“…but it will be the government’s fault that the homeowners elected to buy homes on hillsides,…”
Somehow our society has lost touch with the legal doctrine known as coming to the nuisance.
“coming to the nuisance”
Applied to lenders: If you loaned hundreds of thousands of dollars to households with meager incomes to buy homes they could not afford, then you get to eat the loss. If you made enough such loans, your bank goes out of business and its assets are sold off at fire sale prices.
Applied to borrowers: If you borrowed an amount of money that you could never hope to repay out of your income stream, on the assumption that housing price appreciation would always enable you to sell the home at a price where you could pay off the loan, then you and the bank who loaned you the money get to face the consequences of a short sale if you need to sell for less than the outstanding amount owed on the loan. Leave the rest of us out of it.
+1
After my house burned down, and the property was cleared, I still had to rent a chain link fence due to an “attractive Nuisance” for insurance purposes. Well, also there was the pool that was left intact but w/o water.
Visiting or “bidness” or both? We took Mr. Cole to the traveling Lincoln exhibit at the the Old Courthouse…awesome!
“Without the two leviathans (FNMA and FHLMC) buying mortgages from banks originating loans, lending institutions will have to keep them on their books. A situation such as this bodes poorly for those with less than perfect credit hoping to get a loan that is not directly underwritten by the government, such as FHA loans.”
Am I the only one who sees this as a promising development? Where is it written in the U.S. Constitution that every American is entitled to a home loan, regardless of the likelihood they will ever repay it?
American mortgages
Return to lender
Mortgage lenders’ past sins catch up with them
Feb 4th 2010 | NEW YORK | From The Economist print edition
DURING the boom, American banks spent surplus profits on share buybacks. Now they are being forced into repurchases of a nastier kind: securitised mortgages whose flaws allow buyers to toss them back to the original lender.
Keenest to ensure that the banks own up to their past sins are Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, the housing agencies that bought or guaranteed many of the loans. Their stock of seriously delinquent mortgages is rising sharply and stands at $300 billion. Now majority-owned by the government, they are under pressure to claw back every dollar possible for taxpayers—hence the hordes of employees poring over loans for signs of irregularities, such as false income statements by borrowers or second-home buyers posing as owner-occupiers.
…
^It would be great if they succeed it this.
“Walden has become one of the go-to people for local government administrators who, budgeting in mind, are eager to get a handle on economic trends.”
_______________________
I have no chance of ever becoming one of those go-to people, especially here in Florida, where conjuring statistical support for the client’s desired conclusion is the sum total of the job description. And the entirety of my economics education is two college courses. But I’ll put my judgment up against any of theirs.
Why do we have paid experts in a culture that no longer rewards or respects being correct?
Why do we have paid experts in a culture that no longer rewards or respects being correct?
Deep.
+1
Notice how the govt never asked any of the bloggers (who got it right, and DID see it coming) to help them “solve the crisis.”
Rather than hunkering down with an AR-15 and jars of stale flour, I’d rather be proactive and look to how we can make this country a better place.
Zeus, I have lots of ideas, but for now let me just say that however we get out of this mess, the solution is not going to be “fair” retrospectively. There is just too much guilt and willful ignorance and accidental ignorance and herd behavior and complicity for anyone to ever untangle. It’s like abolishing slavery– how do you compensate former slaves for past abuses? Do you deduct the value of their accommodations and food? And what about compensating slaveowners who paid for slaves when they were considered property? And how do you distinguish between cruel and humane slaveowners? And what about non-slaveowning “enablers”?
The best we can hope for is a solution that is fair– or at least fairer– prospectively.
This is why it bothers me to see people here get all wound up about FBs who took out HELOCs for fancy vacations, etc. and then walked away. Is it right? No. Does it make a lot of sense to worry about it when you have gross inequities between generations, between public and private sector employees, between Wall St. and Main St., between tenured corporate bosses and the rank-and-file? No. We need to focus on the future.
great post!
yep
“…how do you compensate former debt slaves for past abuses?”
“This is why it bothers me to see people here get all wound up about FBs who took out HELOCs for fancy vacations, etc. and then walked away. Is it right? No.”
Is it fair to let them and those who loaned them the money face the consequences of their decisions? Yes!
Yes!
“We need to focus on the future.”
Step one: Now that the recession and the financial crisis are over, let’s get the Fed, the Treasury and Wall Street strong men out of the driving seat of the allocation decisions and let the American voter have a say in the process.
Only way we can start that particular engine is to reverse the Supremes recent decision to allow corporations to have more rights than you or me.
This is against all americans, not a L or rep or dem or ? ALL of us.
Not holding my breath.
“It’s like abolishing slavery…”
Well, that took a rather nasty Civil War…but like that Sit-U-Ation…it involved the whole Nation’s mindset and and it’s relationship to “property”
it’s relationship to “property”
WHICH is exactly what some idiot clerk mistyped on the supreme court header that is now why we have our current supremes and all corporations on the same page, corporations are now considered more important that citizens and actual persons.
Wall Street megabanks are falling all over each other to curb CEO pay by the largest amount. It is deeply tragic to see a Megabank CEO bonus come in below $10m!
Goldman Sachs cuts Blankfein’s bonus to $9m
• Mundane sum by Wall Street standards compares with $69m payout two years ago
• JP Morgan inherits mantle as highest-paying bank
* Andrew Clark in New York
* guardian.co.uk, Saturday 6 February 2010 18.53 GMT
* Article history
This may be a recession-proof business, but it apparently is not depression-proof.
* Business
* Food & drink industry
Burger King sales fall again
• Third quarterly sales drop in a row worries Wall Street
• Firm seen as focusing on existing customers as rival McDonald’s seeks new markets
* Andrew Clark in New York
* guardian.co.uk, Thursday 4 February 2010 18.51 GMT
* Article history
I thought McDonald’s had great earnings…maybe it was a bigger overseas component….
Hmm… I still can’t bring myself to eat McD’s. I don’t mind BK once in a while, but if we eat FF it’s usually Chik-Fil-A.
Disclosure: I absolutely love Chik-Fil-A’s spicy sauce.
Read Fast Food Nation and you’ll never want to eat from a hamburger joint again. I succumb to the siren’s of fast food (hungry and late to my next appt), but I’m really trying to limit my red meat intake to buffalo or fancy schmancy traditionally raised beef. costs more but it seems like a good strategy to avoid e.coli and the like.
Never been to a Chik-Fil-A (I don’t believe they’re in Ca).
But I have watched a lot of Chik-Fil-A football!
“This may be a recession-proof business, but apparantly it is not depression-proof.”
Anything to do with descretionary consumer spending is due to take a hit, IMO. Look for brown-bagging to be the in-thing in the coming years.
Analysts’ View: Euro zone seeks to calm Greek crisis fears at G7
Sat Feb 6, 2010 3:47pm EST
(Reuters) - The euro zone’s top finance officials sought on Saturday to ease concerns about a deep budget crisis that has roiled financial markets and raised questions about the future of the single currency group.
After a two-day meeting of finance ministers and central bankers from the G7 industrialized nations, European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet said he was confident that Greece, which has been hit by the budget deficit crisis, would meet tough new belt-tightening targets.
Here are some views from analysts and investors on the outcome of the G7 meeting:
AXEL MERK, PRESIDENT AND PORTFOLIO MANAGER, MERK
INVESTMENTS, PALO ALTO, CALIFORNIA:
“Juncker’s comments suggest Europe will do something to help Greece. They have some structure in place like the European Investment Bank that can provide support. The problem in Europe is that there is not a single Treasury secretary that will coordinate that.
…
“Repeating what he told the Durham council a year ago, Walden said the Federal Reserve’s attempts to quell an unprecedented housing bubble by raising interest rates helped trigger the crash. Economists there and on Wall Street didn’t anticipate that bubble-busting measures would cause housing prices nationally to retreat, he said. Rather, they saw price increases continuing, but at moderate, historic rates of 2 to 3 percent annually.”
Umm, how about this idea? The housing market crashed when it ran out of greater fools…
Agree.
How about “rising prices — that were the result of keeping interest rates too low/loose lending — caused the crisis”?
Here are several comments after reviewing the responses to my post at the top (thank you Mr. Jones):
2banana’s initial post was unnerving as it made me wonder if I’d sent in a post that I had forgotten about completely. Nicely put together.
I’ve sent Letters to the Editor about the withholding scam and the need to vote on “tax obligation” day (April 15). If that happened, term limits would snap into effect faster than you could say “Bwarney Fwank his hwouta herew!”
The 10 ‘2Banana’ rules should posted on every street corner in the nation.
Also, my desire for county control is what the founders created. Prior to the 17th amendment, US senators were elected by the STATE legislature. Having spent years as a Republican precinct man, I can speak to county central committees having A LOT of influence at the State capitol. Watching Franken and the carpet bagging Hillary, as well as the other pampered, preening, and prancing ponies in the senate, only enforces my opinion that 1913 was the beginning of the end of the founders’ dream. It foisted the 16th (income tax/ direct taxation on citizens) amendment, 17th (popular vote of Senators) amendment and the heinous Federal Reserve Act on us. The Constitution was written by educated and enlightened men in the 18th century living in a much smaller land with about 10 million people. With 300 million people, 10 times the area and a dumbed down electorate, the original Constitution is misunderstood and amended far beyond what the authors would recognize as their work. What to do?
To “2Bananas” list I would add:
11. Begin the drafting of a new Constitution with all States having the right to accept or reject membership in the new “Union.” With a $12 Trillion debt and all the aforementioned maladies firmly in place, it is obvious that every infant born in the United States of America ( that term being now an oxymoron) has his or her own Joshua Tree National Debt obligation right from the get go.
12. Bring back the Guillotine.
Very late to this thread but it reminds me of some ancient history. In the days of Kings and serfs the serfs would provide the King with larders full of grain in exchange for protection from marauding bands of thieves and other nasty invader types. The King, in his infinite generosity would then give back to the serfs just enough grain to survive, or whatever amount he saw fit in order to keep the serfs happy and out of the revolution business.
Our current taxation system is very much the same. We pay taxes to the Federal and State governments who then decides how much will be returned to the States and Counties respectively.
Of course this system is ENTIRELY upside down. Our tax money should stay at the local level with definitive percentages going ‘up’ the government chain, from local, to County, to State, to Federal and instead of waiting for the Federal government to hand down what they deem appropriate, we the citizens hand ‘up’ what we demand is the appropriate.
Imagine what your community would look like if your tax dollars stayed there instead of went to Washington where they are given to the most inventive of thieves?
On the Road in the Belly of the Liberal Beast - San Francsico
Well, last night at dinner was a wake up call, as everyone at our table (all had voted for Obama) are now agreeing that we are at the “inflection point” for a full scale collapse - economic, social, whatever. . .all those Liberals are now pissed off at Obama and the 800Billion bailout that did nothing, and pissed off at Sacramento with a 21B deficit that is likely larger than Greece!
We all sounded like a liberal version of a “tea party” and quite frankly, there may not be much difference between conservatives and liberals right now - we are REALLY MAD at the elected officials of both parties - basically we could boil it down to politicians “kicking the can down the road” and never taking care of business. . .spend today, and let someone else pick up the pieces.
Bring back the Guillotine is about how many people feel out there. . .
“We all sounded like a liberal version of a “tea party”.”
When a rational person gets right down to it…there’s not many differences amongst Americans, after you remove their daily struggles to feed their families.
It is, to me, the apparent function of self-indulging politicians to exploit these miniscule differences for their advantage by picking at the scabs of the past… or,… whatever is politically expedient.
Very soon, I see the day when a fellow in a suit looks at a tatted guy across the street and says, ” Yo, Dude! I see some government guys are painfully inserting a Joshua Tree into a personal area !”
He responds, “ Yeah…I hate these guys. You, too? (owwwwww)”
From the suit guy,” Hey, if we both HATE this, ( Owwwww!) why don’t we turn the tables?”
The Tatted guy replies, “ Only if there is a Guillotine involved.”
Personally I know several people that almost bought houses in 2005, but held off because of information on web blogs. When I was getting my MBA, a blogger named Rich Toscano - who runs the piggington website, came and gave a guest lecture about how far away from the fundamentals San Diego real estate was. I don’t think he totally convinced that many people, but I do know of several people that held back from buying really over priced condos because of that shadow of a doubt.
What I am seeing among people I know that is really sad, is the blame game. You have married couples where one person wanted to buy a property and the other convinced them, and now they are out massive amounts of money. Their are a lot of relationships under strain, and a lot of lives that have been severely harmed, yet I see very little in the way of prosecution of the people involved in enabling the fraud. Many of these people did so knowingly, and and many were greatly enriched by it at the expense of individuals and the nation as a while.
These are all very interesting suggestions. But how do we make them do it?
These are all very interesting and useful suggestions. But how do we make those people in power and authority succumb to them? How do we start it? Is it time for revolution?