Bits Bucket For March 7, 2010
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The Housing Bubble
Examining the home price boom and its effect on owners, lenders, regulators, realtors and the economy as a whole.
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Went to the grocery store in Jupiter Fl. yesterday, the cashier told me a couple came in last week after attending the NACA cramathon, their grocery bill came to $117.00. The wife looked at her husband and said, we just spent half of our months food budget.
How much does a pot of stew cost for a family to make? How about rice and beans with a little pork in it? Chicken soup is cheap to make. In my growing up days (no comments, please) we had “hotdishes” on a regular basis. For those of you that don’t know, anything that has some form of a noodle and some form of meat (even tuna) is considered a hotdish. You may call it a “casserole”. A popsicle, especially banana or root beer, was considered a good after dinner treat.
Families really urinate away their food budgets on pre-made meals. We tend to eat out and entertainment is one of our biggest expenses. But we could easily cut back in a pinch. Earlier this week I made a catfish stew. I ate that for 3 or 4 days and it was excellent on every day. Last night we had sloppy joes. They were very good. I will be eating leftovers for breakfast.
The key to being middle class is to know how to live like your poor at all times. The wannabe crowd has forgotten this and will act like little children when they are forced to relearn this skill. For those of us that never lost this skill life is a lot less scary. Fried bologna, mmmmmm, mmmmmm, goood.
We live in a city where you can eat for cheap in a way that Roman emperors could not.
You can eat from a different local cuisine in the world thrice a day and not repeat yourself for 5 years!!!
I was in Astoria yesterday where I purchased - salted anchovies, three kinds of beans, various dried Greek herbs, fresh squid, sun-dried tomatoes, four kinds of oil, rose water, screwpine essence, capers, shrimp paste, and a ton of vegetables.
I spent less than the average family pays for takeout.
If you know how to cook, most people can live like Gods, and instead they choose to worry about housing?
Verily, this is a totally f-ed up city.
Verily!
An embarrassment of modern culinary riches are largely wasted on a population of American ignoramuses who regard McDonald’s carry out as food.
I had the precise argument with a friend that I could serve him (and his wife) a four-course gourmet meal minus wine (which he would provide) cheaper per person than a happy meal from McD’s.
If I won, he would have to buy wine for the next ten meals.
O frabjous day! Callooh! Callay! He took the bet.
Sadly (for him), the spreadsheet and the specifics rarely go astray.
PS :- It wasn’t even close. I served a seven-course meal just to slap him around a bit, and I nailed it to less than 2/3-rds of McD’s per person. Of course, we had agreed to discount “labor costs”.
Hear! Hear!
Mickey D’s is nasty stuff. So’s the rest of them.
Roidy
How much does a Happy Meal cost?
A lot more than you think it does.
Today when I came home from taking my kids to the park, my wife had fresh-baked oatmeal bread waiting for us. Made in our own kitchen with all-natural ingredients. The kids loved it. Good and good for them.
A lot more than you think it does.
Truer words were never written.
McD’s with it’s original inception of standardizing food, has single handledly/corporately change the world and decades later this originally ‘good’ idea that has made billions, has run our nations health straight into health chaos and into INS/Pharma’s money grubbing bottom lines.
Its interesting that the epidemic of childhood obesity began around 30 years ago, about the same time that McD became ubiquitous. I’m seeing a casual relationship here. I raised two kids during this time and I stand guilty as charged.
I generally agree… but in order to live well on a budget you need time to shop and time as well as expertise to cook well, and to develop some expertise in nutrition. A lot of people on the treadmill of modern life don’t have the time, energy, or the social network to help develop the expertise.
I was very lucky to have a few years as a young adult when I was pretty consistently broke. Learned how to take care of myself and others, and now I can cook a full and nutritious meal for a family of 7 on less than 20 dollars. Could not pull it off if I had to hold down a day job, though.
Slow cookers work well for that.
I can make a number of nutritious and delicious meals in less time than it takes to go get takeout.
I also cook time consuming meals on the weekend. I especially love the ones that yield leftovers.
“in order to live well on a budget you need time to shop and time as well as expertise to cook well, and to develop some expertise in nutrition. A lot of people on the treadmill of modern life don’t have the time, energy, or the social network to help develop the expertise”
Remember how gardening became all the rage in Summer 2007? Home Depot’s sales of potting soil and seeds were way up. I didn’t hear as much of that in Summer 2009, however. A lot of folks must have given up.
The nursery I go to had their biggest sales of veggie garden seeds and seedlings ever in summer 2009. There are more lectures and workshops on vegetable gardening around town than there used to be.
Eating well, by that I mean nutritiously, costs a lot. This is one of the reasons that you see so many over weight people on food stamps. Starch
is cheap and filling.
I went to the store for my wife and bought one
bundle of asparagus and almost had a heart attack. The price was $3.04 for one small bundle. My wife told me that price inflation on
groceries has almost doubled our monthly bill.
Thank God for fruit trees and a 5,000 sq.ft.
garden.
I don’t believe asparagus is a real great illustration of your point. Asparagus has always been one of the most expensive vegetables there is. That is like saying, “it is really getting expensive feeding the kids filet mignon”.
Produce is pricey, which is why you don’t see it in the WIC folks shopping carts.
When my wife tells me our food budget has
almost doubled in the last year, I believe her.
And yes, we eat very, very well. Rib eyes,
salmon, babybacks, and tons of veggies and
fruit. A lot from our own place. Come over and I’ll cook up a shrimp stir fry for you to
enjoy.
I posted a post about eating in New York which hasn’t appeared yet.
If you know what you are doing, you can live a food lifestyle that, verily, the Roman emperors would be jealous of.
You can get products and produce from all over the planet at dirt-cheap prices.
But ya gotta know how to cook from scratch!
Groceries are expensive in NYC and I believe prices have risen a little bit. But I don’t see any way that your bills could have doubled. Are you sure your wife and the UPS guy aren’t stashing a little money away from your prying eyes?
Gosh darn, city boy, I never thought of that.
Maybe my wife exaggerates a bit…
Toeing the dirt with my boot while leaning
on the fence post…
I knows me my food and I knows me my food prices.
The low-end is up a bit (quite small, one would argue) and the high-end is down rather dramatically.
My personal average is down quite significantly, and I spend a lot of my income on produce (no wastage.)
And I have data and spread-sheets to bore the living cr@p out of you but you knew that about me, right?
Now, who wants some real bronze-die extruded pasta? (Yep, it makes a difference.)
“The low-end is up a bit (quite small, one would argue) and the high-end is down rather dramatically.”
Funny how fitting that description is to SoCal owner-occupied housing.
On 1/2 second’s reflection, there is no surprise that FPSS’s description of the food market would apply to luxury consumption across many categories of consumer goods (houses, cars, wine, etc).
- The so-called Credit Crunch has taken away easy money loans as a source of luxury consumption for the almost-rich, who now are relegated to consuming inferior goods instead of the high-end stuff they could purchase on credit pre-2005.
- The effect of a massive hammering of the low-end of the income distribution by the recession on demand for inferior goods has been masked by the shift down the quality scale by almost-rich consumers who lost their housing market ATMs and other easy money loan sources.
- Only the small pocket of truly wealthy individuals (corporate managers + trust fund babies) are left to buoy the luxury consumption market.
- All of the above are consistent with a slight increase in the prices of inferior goods coupled with devastating vaporization of demand for high-end luxury goods; a compression of prices across the quality spectrum is the natural consequence (e.g., wines priced below $10 a bottle still taste like cheap table wine, but wines priced from $10 to $20 a bottle taste much better now than they did pre-2005).
“And I have data and spread-sheets to bore the living cr@p out of you but you knew that about me, right?
Now, who wants some real bronze-die extruded pasta? (Yep, it makes a difference.)”
That is so very Chicago of you!
The key to cheap produce is buying what’s in season- that’s when it’s cheapest and tastes the best. The mistake a lot of people make is buying the same produce year-round.
The other key to cheap cooking, other than cooking from scratch, is to cook the cuisines of the ‘poor’ world. Soul food, cajun, Mexican, African, most Asian, and most European cuisines are all about making a little go a long way- there’s a reason the Tuscans are called the ‘bean-eaters’ in Italy. Some of the best dishes in the world are also some of the cheapest.
+10,000,000,000,000
Yep, that’s how it works.
My “buddy” mentioned before was shocked at all the beans I used.
I call it my arsenal. I got 40 kinds (not kidding!)
People joke that I never repeat my meals. And I don’t. Even on a daily basis for myself. Boredom is a terrible terrible thing. Why bother with boredom when one can be happy?
Plus, it’s NYC so if you’re feeling lazy, the entire city is your oyster. Planned boredom, if you will. LOL
Oh, and alpha-sloth, you and I need to chat! You’re a man/woman after my own heart. I write a food blog, and as most people here know, nothing tickles my soul better than an intellectual debate: cba DOT fed DOT ihg AT gmail DOT com.
My Portuguese grandparents who I feel blessed to have grown up next to raised 95% of what they consumed in their backyard even though we lived in a city and there was a grocery store across the street from us…
Fresh produce is expensive?
How expensive are carrots, broccoli, string beans, and cabbage? Or are we talking about all those exotic veggies that I never ate even in adulthood.
Roidy
P.S. I do have one fresh vegetable addiction: fresh Brussels sprouts steamed and topped with Creole mustard. I will eat my weight in that. NEVER FROZEN! YECH!
One of the most subtle things I ever learnt from friends of friends’ grandparents was that varying the proportion of spices in a precise fashion was an exact skill.
These grandma bee-yatches were making the same darned thing, They just did a combinatorial rotation of the spices in a precise dance that was built to fool the tongue.
And they did!
Each day was “different” but it was not. They sure fooled the living daylights out of me.
I’m gonna get you, grandma! I’m gonna get you good!!!
I’m totally addicted to all vegetables. I know how to make people “swoon” using them which is a skill that I am sure some of y’all will appreciate.
And it gets better returns than housing!
My grandmother would smuggle in and secretly add spices or other ingredients to dishes she was cooking at another person’s house, lest they learn all her tricks to her fabulous cooking. They took their recipes and cooking reputations seriously in those days.
FPSS- I’m a guy, though I think I confuse people here with my mumu/burka comments. (They’re liberating I tell ya! My newest invention: the BurkaMu- Combines the happy, come-as-you-are qualities of a mumu, with the religious sensibilities of the burka. In happy, tropical prints that seem to chant- ‘can’t we all just get along?’) If you’ve cooked beans in rainwater, then I’m ready to talk food. I’ll be in touch.
If you’ve cooked beans in rainwater
Been there, done that.
Say something original, fer cryin’ out loud!
Original, eh? Lemme get a few more drinks in me…
Oh! Ever eaten a duck’s tongue? I once ordered a packet of them and prepared them whole, in gelatin, as a terrine. Served it to my poker group to psych them out. Later someone here was responding to a post of mine deploring the ‘crappiness’ of chitterlings, and saying they enjoyed them and particularly liked the ‘pucker’ (which I thought sounded reminiscent of the ’spider’ part of calamari).
Since then I’ve been contemplating an April Fool’s dish of tongue-and-pucker pie. Thoughts?
My “buddy” mentioned before was shocked at all the beans I used.
I call it my arsenal. I got 40 kinds (not kidding!)
How many grains do you keep on tap?
This is an easy fix……just add to the debit card $50 a month and it can only be used on fresh fruits and vegetables. and if you don’t use it, you lose it, and the next month you are back to $50.
——————————-
This is one of the reasons that you see so many over weight people on food stamps. Starch is cheap and filling.
NYCB …anything but the fried bologna …I take it raw myself. But I hear you NYCB. I was talking to someone who lived in a big city
during the Depression who said that the soap that was given out during the Great Depression was very nutritious .Others who I talked to who lived on a farm ate very well . Many have told me that everybody was in the same boat and neighbors helped each other .
One guy I knew ,who has died since ,told me he landed a job in New York City working on cars during the Great Depression and saw the unemployed in the soup lines but he never had to do it .
I also have a good friend who lost their father to a car accident during the Depression ,than they lost their farm ,but never remembers going without food .When ever I give these people fruit or something within a matter of days they bring me something back.
Sorry soup not soap
wow, had me goin there for a minute.
Had my mouth washed out with soap a time or two as a lad. Comforting to know it has nutritional value.
I hate to do this but I am going to have to go medieval on your @ss. (Who am I kidding? I’m gonna enjoy this one.)
People confuse specific characteristics of GD1 with the functional characteristics of a depression.
We produce far too much food to starve. To put it differently, we’re fat, fat, fat, fat, fat.
Did I mention fat?
We got food streaming into the mouth and out of each wazoo, and since the laws of physics can’t really be violated, there’s more energy going in than going out which turns into, yes you guessed it my fuzzy-wuzzy friend, FAT.
So this GD2 will not be like the previous one (= GD1.) What matters are functional characteristics not specific ones!
Nobody will starve but more specifically virtually no one is going to be able to “retire”.
That, my fuzzy-wuzzy friend, is the difference between specifics and functional trends.
is the difference between specifics and functional trends ??
Yep…I agree…Its structural change not cyclical….
Same applies for “peak oil” as for food. We’re way too “energy fat” as well.
We use on the order of 30-40% more dinofuel than we really need to support our comfortable lifestyles. If current consumption levels can’t be sustained much longer at current prices, the prices will go up, we’ll use less, and life will go on.
Yes there will be disruptions and curtailment of numerous wasteful uses. But looking back we’ll hardly notice, most of us.
I recently interviewed a couple with 4 kids who wanted to rent an old house . They didn’t nearly have enough income to do the rent . ”How are you planning to pay the rent??” I asked. ”Well” was their reply ”We get over a thousand dollars in monthly food stamps & wick program vouchers” ”We don’t nearly use all that , so we sell food to our relatives , and use that cash to pay bills ” .. No , they didn’t get the house , but I find it hard to believe anyone in this country needs to go hungry , in any way .
I have steak at home, the meal costs less than $5 per person. I have steak outside the home, it’s likely to be $20 or more, and not as good. (I love my husband. He cooks me better food than I can make!)
This morning we had abelskivers. The recipe is utterly simple: 1 cup self-rising flour, 1 cup milk, 1 egg, 1/3 cup oil. Teensy bit of flavoring (we used lemon extract this morning– BIG THUMBS UP!) About $30 for the cast-iron pan (also known as a monk’s pan; DO NOT buy aluminum. You need the carryover heat.) Preheat the pan (about 7 on an electric range.) Put a little oil in each depression and pour the mix in about 2/3 up the sides; turn as the bottom cooks so you eventually get a ball. Serve with jam or lingonberry sauce. It makes about 15 or so inch-and-a-half waffle balls.
What’s the cost on that? Not a whole lot; there’s what, sixteen cups to a gallon? And milk is the most expensive ingredient. What do Eggos cost? An absurd amount by comparison. And they don’t taste nearly as good. (On that note: Why not make & freeze your own waffles?)
Learn to cook. Teach your kids. It’s a great money saver and it TASTES GREAT!
Jeff,
You live in Jupiter? We must be neighbors, I live in PBG, right on the Jupiter line (Evergrene). Don’t worry.. I rent!
(For those that don’t know, my community is down at least 40-50% since the peak, and is widely considered one of the worst examples of construction during the housing bubble).
I sure hope my former co-worker doesn’t get off the hook for the 6 condos her and her husband bought down there. I feel they are the type that will walk away and feel somebody else should have to pay the price of their flipping habits. I hope they can even “get stucco”. I love justice in the morning. It smells like eggs Benedict.
Eggs Benedict and no Bloody Mary?!?
Say it ain’t so!!!!!
“Eggs Benedict and no Bloody Mary?!?”
A good Bloody Mary’s has all the daily nutritional requirements you need for an entire year if you plop in a celery stick and stur. Why take chances ?
Make a pitcher of them.
Faster, sure you’re not related to my wife?
Laughing..
When in doubt about whether to have a drink always have three.
I knew it! I knew it! We found you! Welcome
home SIL!
“get stucco”
Yes?
BTW, given the housing market’s diminishing returns to extraordinary government-sponsored stimuli, all of which have yet to be withdrawn, I am looking forward to viewing”Flipper Bath Round 2″ from the sidelines, scheduled to play out over the 2010-2013 period.
Got popcorn?
Pbear…I purchased a bike off of the San Diego Craigs list you posted for me
Thanks much…It was exactly what I was looking for and I saved a bundle 
scdave —
Great to hear my suggestion worked for you! Maybe next Saturday will be free enough for me to pursue my own suggestion. Spring time biking season is just around the corner…
I plan on spending some time down there this summer…I understand you have some bad weather right now…
Spring time biking season is just around the corner…
Been riding all over for weeks, I mean yrs. in the desert. Today was a brisk ride.
Spring time biking season is just around the corner…
Been peddling it all over since summer heat stopped in the desert.
What kind of bike did you find on CL? I have found the best/cheapest chances at bikes are found in SD or OC. Around here they go for HIGH $.
Michael,
I just moved from Jupiter Landings to Tequesta Pines, one rental to another. Funny thing, two weeks before I moved out of Jupiter Landings the bank appraiser for the buyer came by and before the realtor got there I had a chance to tell him about the $50,000.00 worth of problems with the house. Called the realtor last week to tell him we had the place clean and we were out, he asked what I had said to the appraiser before he got there, I told him” nothing out of the ordinary” he then informed me that the financing had not gone through, he was pissed. The LL owes about $320,000.00 and it won`t go through at $150,000.00 Oh well.
Palm Beach County home loan marathon final tally in, more than 24,000 attendees and 7,500 solutions
by Kim Miller
The Neighborhood Assistance Corporation of America’s 5-day loan modification event at the Palm Beach County Civic Center attracted 24,331 households and was able to give same-day solutions to 7,547.
The marathon, which ran 24-hours-a-day beginning Feb. 25, was the 13th event nationwide sponsored by the non-profit group, which offers free counseling to struggling borrowers. The association, also known as NACA, is popular because it brings hundreds of lender representatives to each of its events, allowing homeowners to meet directly with their banks
Where’s the money going to come from to pay for the growing national debt? Social security, Medicare, nationalized health care. The national debt is increasing by trillions of dollars over the next couple decades. It’s been commonly argued that it’s not fair to pass these debt’s on to future generations. Essentially, the generation deriving the benefits should pay for the benefits.
My premise is that it should come from peoples estates. One of the main reasons for the deficits in spending is that with people living longer now, many take out much more in benefits than they ever put in.
Essentially, upon someones death the government would tally up everything that was paid in during a persons lifetime versus all the benefits that were they received from all entitlement programs, including government pensions. The difference would be charged to a persons estate, above estate taxes. This debt would be ahead of any other creditor, for payment. For a married couple it would happen upon the second spouses death. For someone who actually paid in more than they received the estate would get a credit against estate taxes. For someone who wants to leave their heirs as much as possible, it would encourage them to take as little benefits a they can. For people who retire with substantial assets and receive social security because ” they paid into it and they are owed it” it gives them a tax incentive to not collect social security.
Would this create a moral hazard? Where people would not do their own saving and building up assets, with the expectation that they would be taken care of regardless. I tend to think that most people who are motivated to build their wealth, would build their wealth regardless. It also would not provide any one with a cushy retirement or money for their heirs, so there’s still an incentive to pad your retirement with assets you’ve built up on your own.
So the solution to the problem that government is corrupt and completely fiscally incompetent is to give them more authority? Who “decides” how much the government gets back? Well, that would be the government. What could go wrong?
“Who “decides” how much the government gets back? Well, that would be the government”
There’s no decision to make. It’s simple accounting. You paid in x and received y. The difference is charged or credited to the estate.
Accounting is never that easy. Just tracing the records would be nearly impossible - local, state and federal computers don’t talk to each other. Also, how do you value what a wealthy person has received by living in a safe community where they did not have to hire private security to protect their toys? Do you really think you can figure out at the moment of death how many subsidized emergency room visits a person made? What if someone lived in a community that received disaster funds? What if they got power from the TVA? Where does it stop?
Also, what do you do about the people who paid in little, received a lot and die with no money?
“Also, what do you do about the people who paid in little, received a lot and die with no money?”
Soylent Green.
“Accounting is never that easy. Just tracing the records would be nearly impossible”
Every so often I receive a statement from Social Security showing how much I’ve paid in over the last 20+ years. If I make it to retirement, I’m sure they’ll know how much they’ve paid me till my death.
Part them out? Organs, skin, corneas, etc.
(We’ll have our pound of flesh;)
The only thing you are worried about is Social Security? That is it? So, just trying to make sure the folks who didn’t pay in all that much get their estates confiscated? Well, it would put off the worst of the problems for a few years any way. Not the worst idea in the world. But I doubt it is a permanent fix for a system that was meant to keep people from abject poverty for a year or two between eligibility for benefits and the grave and has since morphed into a retirement system that people expect to keep them living reasonably well (and paying a mortgage) for 20 to 30 years.
I think it’s great that you’re trying to come up with a solution, that’s cool. It makes sense that people shouldn’t get back more than they put in. But how in the world would anyone know if the government’s accounting is correct? Does anyone keep independent track of every penny they’ve paid in, and every penny they got back? From birth?
I don’t think there would be much money here anyway. Let’s say someone retires at 65 they’ve paid $200K into SS over 45 years. Well that $200K invested a little at a time over 40 years at say 3%, would be worth $400K. So the government couldn’t justify saying that person spent more than they got until they received $400K in benefits (actually it’s more than that, because that money they “invested” in SS should continue to pay interest until they die).
I also disagree that people will work just as hard to earn wealth, no matter how much they are taxed. It doesn’t make sense to me that that millions of people love their jobs so much, and their free time and families so little, that they’d work for nothing.
The only real solution is to limit voting to those who put more into the system in taxes than they take out in benefits. Small business owners who provide jobs should get one additional vote for each five people that they employ. Voters should also have to pass the same civics class that new citizens have to complete. We’d have a better class of voter, which would mean a better class of elected officials.
I love it when some brain-dead mutant says, “I have the right to complain because I voted”. I turn to the moron and say, “I have the right to complain because people like you are allowed to vote”.
‘The only real solution is to limit voting to those who put more into the system in taxes than they take out in benefits. Small business owners who provide jobs should get one additional vote for each five people that they employ. Voters should also have to pass the same civics class that new citizens have to complete. We’d have a better class of voter, which would mean a better class of elected officials.’
Revolutions have started, been fought and lost by the “better class” more than a few times due to that kind of thinking.
I take it that you are prepared to lead the 1st Charge against the guns when you intend to initiate your mandated class or caste warfare ?
It has nothing to do with class. It has to do with who’s paying the bills. You can vote as long as you’re a productive member of society, but once you retire and are a net beneficiary of Uncle Sam’s strong supporting arm, you pass the baton to those who are still paying into the system. When it comes to collective greed and inter-generational debt transfer, Wall Street has nothing on the AARP.
Government workers - no vote. Welfare recipients - no vote. People who are demonstrably mentally defective and non-self supporting - no vote. And strict limits on corporate and special interest group contributions.
Or we could just keep doing things the way we do now, since that’s worked out so well for us.
Small business owners? Who needs those chumps? We should limit the vote to the wealthiest 1% of Americans. They’ve clearly shown their superiority by amassing so much wealth. And they pay a ton of taxes.
Some guy that runs a hot dog stand gets to vote? No way. Save it for the big boys. They’d never lead us astray.
You know where we made our big mistake? It was letting all those GIs come back from WW2 and demand stuff like good wages and education. They’d all been sucking the gov’s teat for the last few years, and suddenly they want to institute socialism here in America? Were they fighting for us or the Ruskies? We’d have been better off losing the whole war.
The GIs were fortunate. They were able to come back to a country whose foreign competition was lying in ruins. It should have been understood that the incredible manufacturing advantage we had would not last forever. But, sadly, as always seems to happen with humans, we thought the boom times would last forever.
Yeah, it was Different That Time. Investing in your own people and infrastructure, and encouraging business practices that benefitted the country as a whole, were temporarily allowed to succeed. Now reality has returned and it’s time to get back to concentrating wealth in the hands of the few, and letting the poor fester in lawless slums. A model with a long history of success.
Thank you for reading that into my post. How stupid. Like there weren’t huge concentrations of wealth during that time period. (CityBoy shakes his head in disgust)
I never said there weren’t still huge concentrations of wealth, just that overall the ’system’ favored lower-level wage earners, long-term investment, and conservative banking and business practices. And it succeeded pretty spectacularly. It was deregulation and trickle-down economics that killed the golden goose.
Ever checked the income tax rates under Eisenhower?
The GIs that came back from fighting WWII spawned the Baby Boomers, the most worthless and self-absorbed generation this nation has ever been cursed with. Not all of them of course, but look at the multiple messes they’ve created and left for future generations.
alpha-sloth . That system that succeeded that was more of a closed economic system or at least a regulated one resulted in a better distribution of the wealth IMHO ,except some ethic groups were always struggling more than others . It was never totally fair ,but at least it created a huge middle and upper middle class and the illusion of being able to control your destiny ,at least for a while .
I heard a psychologist the other day say in essence that you can’t control or conn a centered person . Why is it that so many people were conned into buying shit they couldn’t afford at
inflated prices and willing to go into slave debt ? People were conned into a leverage game and selling to a greater fool, after fake pumping up the price ,
which was the game (which is Wall Streets ongoing game ).
Why didn’t people think about how this was going to price a lot of people out of the market and raise rents everywhere and create distortions ? Public refusal to buy at crazy prices would of been a sign that the public was centered and sane ,not conned and turned into consumption gamblers.
A son of a friend of mine was complaining about how he couldn’t afford the real estate prices and my friend said ,
“Well your just going to have to make more money .” Yep, right .I sided with the kid and my friend was getting angry with me.
The very poor are so much struggling for just to exist day by day that they can’t fight …no energy …no resources..stacked decks against them,especially in corrupt
Countries .
These power groups want a bunch of zombie people who are not centered and brainwashed who will buy their conn jobs and their token handouts ,until there is nothing more to fleece .
If a person was in touch with their real self they wouldn’t be able to screw their fellow man and sleep at night .I can always tell when someone is looking at me like a mark . do you want to work out a fair deal ,or are you just here to screw me ? And now Government wants to pick who the winners and loser will be ,nothing about winning and losing is based on your actions. Being around a high percentage of zombie like conned people is really making for a lonely existence .People are tied into this house of cards and it’s scary .
” A Society that does not dole out Justice in a fair and just manner is doomed to fail .” Author Unknown “
Sammy,
I’m one of those Boomers. Most of us are truly worthless. In less than 40 years, we managed to squander the wealth of what used to be the richest country the world has ever seen.
For someone who actually paid in more than they received the estate would get a credit against estate taxes.
And if the difference exceeded the estate tax? Would they get a refund? And would interest and the time value of money be taken into account?
And more to the point, what about people who aren’t worried about leaving money to their heirs, but just want to keep what they have while they’re alive? How about just not charging them in the first place?
“For someone who actually paid in more than they received the estate would get a credit against estate taxes”
I love it. People have aquired more money, toys and useless junk that they are worried to death what to do with it when they die. Must be all those excess baggage fees on Eternal Flight 999
Solution :
Just plop them into a cheap cardboard coffin and cremate them when they croak.
mikey will issue them an IOU for their entire estate. They can take that with them to heaven.
Problem solved.
What about those in the generation who voted against any of the politicians who kept increasing spending and entitlements? As soon as I was eligible to vote, I voted libertarian for all congressional elections. Not my problem. Hell no! Instead I expect massive defaults.
I agree with Sammy that those who paid into the system should get out what they put in.
If they massively raise taxes the result is revolution.
If we cannot afford to defend the U.S. in order to pay the debt, some other nation will take advantage of our weakened situation.
If they default, I also expect revolution.
We’re up $hit creek.
“I tend to think that most people who are motivated to build their wealth, would build their wealth regardless. ”
Perhaps, but what about the majority?
Uh, but haven’t we mostly had a negative savings rate in recent years?
Most sheeple want to spend and enjoy, not think long term.
And the prosperous would probably find tax advisors who will find a whole new set of loopholes and tax dodges to shelter their estates. And how many people leave truly substantial estates anyway?
Not sure what the solution is, but wouldn’t this just make a new incentive to “die broke” (on paper at least?)
to “die broke” ??
I believe there is a book that has been written on this…I have seen excerpts and it has some merit…Thats assuming you you accept the premise that its okay to lean on the government (your working neighbor) for sustenance towards the end of your life…
to “die broke” ??
I believe there is a book that has been written on this
The Bible? (New Testament at least)
Many people at work are still incredulous at my thriftiness as they know I drive the cheapest car at work, and some of them are aware I am into investing. They tell me I live like an old man, that I should live it up more.
Well I would if my relatives were responsible with their personal finances.
Dying broke is fine during economic boom years. But today we read California has 12.5% official unemployment and Thornberg predicts another recession in 2011.
Ok I will save more cash. This week I throw more money into 52-week T-bills.
They tell me I live like an old man…
That’s because the only examples of thrift many have seen in their lives is in old people, who remember everything doesn’t always go up.
“Essentially, upon someones death the government would tally up everything that was paid in during a persons lifetime versus all the benefits that were they received from all entitlement programs, including government pensions. The difference would be charged to a persons estate, above estate taxes.”
So two individuals work for the same company and make the same pay over their lifetime. One saves, lives wisely and the other squanders all. At the end of life let’s take from those living responsibly to repay into a system to support the irresponsible.
+1 Exactly.
Exactly. Every wealthy geezer on his last legs should rent a 200′ yacht, invite all his friends and relatives, party until the money runs out. That’s what I would do.
They’ll be a Rolls Royce dealer next to every hospice.
Where’s the money going to come from ??
I suggest you look in the mirror…Unless you don’t have anything to give….
My premise is that it should come from peoples estates. One of the main reasons for the deficits in spending is that with people living longer now, many take out much more in benefits than they ever put in.
Estates… ho ho ho… you make me laugh
More death taxes on the estates isn’t a terrible idea either. Been done before and a lot of rich people got mad.
There isn’t any way to pay off the debts if you keep wracking up more of them. There isn’t any hope if the government can curtail spending and unfortunately neither party has shown an inclination to pay anything down. My sense is financial conservatism is on the rise and perhaps we have turned. Stupid pension contracts will be rained in or we are going Russian with a crushing bureaucracy.
“My premise is that it should come from peoples estates. One of the main reasons for the deficits in spending is that with people living longer now, many take out much more in benefits than they ever put in.”
How does that work when so many estates are underwater these days? (Please see my long post on FIL’s Wealthy Uncle in yesterday’s bits buckets for an anecdote…)
Vmax,
My quick summary. Your idea is a terrible one.
Please understand it’s not meant as a personal attack
As long as we have programs that pay out more than they take in, their doomed to implode. Borrowing the difference puts the burden onto future generations, delaying the implosion. A pretty crappy thing to do to young people.
This idea makes any excess paid out a loan, payable at death.
“Borrowing the difference puts the burden onto future generations”
nah, just don’t pay it. default.
Vmax,
Your concept makes sense but the reality is there has been so much graft and corruption over the years that the little guy has never seen much, if any of it. I and probably quite a few on this board have lived beneath their means. Excuse me if I refuse to get in the gubmint repayment program that’s being proposed here.
Think about it. If you think people are reckless with their money now, and many are, just think what it would become under your proposal. If you remove incentives for achievement from society you might as well call us Cuba north.
I agree the current system sucks. I have voted Libertarian for some years and will continue until my demise.
Vmax: and its all because of those dammmned anti-smoking radicals.
30 years ago 60% of GM workers smoked now its less the 15%…..can you say more deductions from your paycheck each week or no retirement funds
—————————————————————-
One of the main reasons for the deficits in spending is that with people living longer now, many take out much more in benefits than they ever put in.
many take out much more in benefits than they ever put in.
So true.
Working stiffs ie: not consultants, only pay in about $500.00 per yr for medicaire costs. Which later in life are paid out in staggering amounts.
Read this article in the NYT this morning.
http://www.nytimes.com/2010/03/07/nyregion/07foreclose.html?hpw
It’s simply amazing what common sense can do, isn’t it?
I am in disagreement with the policy. This “success” story is just another example of government getting in the middle of the housing situation here in The People’s Republic of New York City. Once again the government thinks it is their role to pick winners and losers. This is no different than rent control.
This program, like rent control, just keeps the price down for the chosen few. This is subsidized by the rest of us. Just check out this line.
“Such housing requires a substantial infusion of public money.”
The article states that the city donated land and money. It looks like a free lunch to me. But we know there are no free lunches. A few years ago we had a fellow tenant complain to us that his rent was a ridiculous $1,100 per month. We were paying $2,200 per month. Guess who was rent stabilized? I know the rent control crowd believes god endowed upon them the right to have their rent subsidized by others. That is what it feels like with this program. They deserve to pay below market prices for housing.
I want to look further into the reason for no foreclosures. When the prices are artificially held down I think you get fewer defaults. I bet people with $600 rent controlled apartments probably have fewer late payments than people paying a market rate of $2,500.
This program lauds the down payments that are made. It didn’t exactly specify where the down payments come from. What are the chances that down payments come from a “community organization”?
The New York Times and Sickle are trying to get us to believe that government is the answer to our housing problems. You are free to have your opinion. I just don’t buy it, not for a second. All of these market distorting programs, including good old Fan and Fred, are the problem not the solution. This City has screwed up housing ever since FDR was in office. It looks like they want even more control to keep screwing it up. Hold on to your wallets New Yorkers. They are coming back for more.
I am in disagreement with the policy. This “success” story is just another example of government getting in the middle of the housing situation here in The People’s Republic of New York City.
To the rabid liberals of the NYT and virtually the entire mainstream media, the Nanny State interjecting itself into every perceived “problem” - as defined by the MSM - IS a success story. Why do you think they swooned over Obama?
Democracy is the worship of jackals by jackasses.
- H. L. Mencken
It has been said that democracy is the worst form of government except all the others that have been tried.
Winston Churchill
The main problem with democracy is that the door remains perpetually open for anyone who wishes to destroy it by creating a sufficient power block to steal the rights of other constituent groups. Democracy itself is not the problem; safeguarding its continued existence is the problem.
I’m down with that.
There is the ultimate “solution” though. It’s called good food, good music, and more alcohol than you can shake a stick at.
PS :- Churchill subscribed to that with music substituted by cigars. I’m down with that one too.
“My rule of life prescribed as an absolutely sacred rite smoking cigars and also the drinking of alcohol before, after and if need be during all meals and in the intervals between them.” – Winston Churchill
Hold on to your wallets New Yorkers ??
Yep….In all forms and from every direction…The Greedy Hand is out…..
NYCityBoy you are wrong. If what you say is true New York would be in disastrous financial condition, and way over budget. They would have numerous politicians having to resign for corruption. I’m reporting your negativity to Joe Bruno and Governor Paterson.
It certainly reinforces the case for allowing house prices to fall to affordable levels, instead of financial voodoo and government programs to stuff people into homes at inflated prices.
These houses were not allowed to fall to an affordable level. The prices are being artificially manipulated through subsidies. It creates yet another market distortion in an incredibly distorted market. An island of subsidized housing in a sea of propped up housing is not a success story. Come over for Sunday dinner and I will take you around to show you how this all works.
Have you ever been to any of those neighborhoods… would you want to live there?
I don’t want to live in Westchester either. What does that have to do with anything?
New York City taxes are strangling residents. Get their hands out of every cookie jar and the city could allow residents to pay less in taxes. But no, the do-gooder mentality is to choose winners and losers. That just means less money for real investment and business. That means less real economy upon which to build decent housing.
“I don’t want to live in Westchester either. What does that have to do with anything? ”
With the exception of parts of Yonkers, most of Westchester does not look like Dresden after the war. Parts of Brooklyn and Queens where some of these houses were built do.
Not sure what the solution is, but I’d rather see some way to get determined working class families to stabilize areas like these instead of letting the neighborhoods fall down and returning to nature like Detriot.
An island of subsidized housing in a sea of propped up housing is not a success story.
Dude, you’re starting to sound like an Austrian economist or something. You’re not going to get many NYC cocktail party invitations with that kind of talk.
Good. I hate those cocktail parties and the gaggle of phonies that stands around talking gibberish. I’d rather be at home rubbing lemon juice on a paper cut.
NYC, you’ll be happy to know that me and my buddy went to a hedgie’s roof party in Tribeca many years ago. After a few hours of hard drinking and socializing, my friend said, “these guys are assholes,” then puked behind the guy’s couch, and we split.
Your buddy is my hero.
“Those guys let their dog take a dump on my Persian rug.”
“Ummm, they didn’t have a dog.”
+1
Add me to the hero list!
Muggy and NYCityBoy, you just made me laugh out my oatmeal!
Ha! Those scenes could be replayed out here too in the Manhattan of the west - Manhattan Beach.
“It’s simply amazing what common sense can do, isn’t it?”
Some excerpts from the article:
“If you didn’t have good credit, you were out - it was old fashioned.”
“They didn’t want to sell you a house and have you lose everything.”
“They refused to let pinched owners overextend with home-equity loans.”
“We require counseling and down payments - we want homeowners to have some skin in the game.”
“We frown on exotic mortgages.”
I can’t believe that the people that have been on the HBB for years can still fall for any of this nonsense. That article says so little. All it screams is that the government should have a central role in housing. Wrong! Wrong! Wrong! Cash is king and I am not buying this story with my spare cash.
I wasn’t pointing out the government’s role, I was pointing out the part common sense played in its success.
Government and common sense in the same sentence. I’m not buying it, Combo. I understood your post. I’m just pointing out that these “success stories” are like icebergs. There is a lot going on beneath the surface.
Also, the lender on the prime mortgage had to approve any refinancing/seconds.
If these standards had been maintained over the last 10 years there wouldn’t have been the bubble. Also, check out the part where the woman constantly complains that they wouldn’t approve her because they wouldn’t accept her “stated income”. No liar loans.
Yes, subsidized housing, but if it’s going to exist, this is the way to do it.
I agree that these are good rules but there should be one set of rules for all housing. Why do I have to subsidize yet another program? I have enough neighbors in my own building that I subsidize. The host is dying and the parasites just complain that the host should get a blood transfusion.
I don’t care what kind of assistance you get ,if the actual
loan is not based on the ability to pay than it’s a joke . Government supplements just raise the costs of the asset and creates a demand that would normally not be there .
Real estate is tied into lending (because most people don’t have the ability to buy a place for cash ). Playing with lending to create demand and markets that would normally not exist is crazy. Increasing real estate prices to get more property taxes is another by product of tampered with markets . People cheer-leading rising prices for what should be shelter is nuts .
This fake housing bubble was the result of faulty lending because real estate is tied into qualifying for a loan . Market value should be based on willing able borrowers being able to compete ,not fake borrowers driving up the market by trick loans ,liar loans , low down payments and all that happened . Getting Americans into credit card debt to finance a increased lifestyle ,just so
many big industries would have a good demand is another lending scheme not based on real affordable demand .Also ,the advertising community brainwashing the people into thinking that they deserved these inflated price products by easy money leverage by debt was insane .
Insurance systems that increase prices artificially ,like the Health Care system ,is another example of systems that screw with normal demand pricing ,especially when they are monopolies .
Much of the government interference is padding BIg Business pockets (and monopolies ) and creating demand that would not normally be present.
I can understand the Country needing a Defense paid for by the government and all the other needs that would be paid for by the Government ,but supplements and tax advantages to industries that create a stupid demand that crashes because it isn’t sustainable is stupid.
Highly regulated Capitalism and the rule of law seems to be the best system to get a fair and more level playing field ,but I don’t even know what the hell we have now . In the US we are now tied into Global markets and slave labor market competition and distortions in money supply that has nothing to do with real sustainable demand .
We have a Health Care system that is based on taking 25% of the average families paycheck that they can’t afford really if they want to eat and afford inflated shelter costs .
Since when does a National Budget go to bailing out lenders/Investment houses /Insurance companies /Car Companies to the tune of trillions and trillions ? We bail out industries that should actually be based on extra income investments that really should only represent 10% to 15 % of the funds of the Nation . So people are forced into investing in bubbles and Casino games to make ends meet ? Making ends meet should be based on income from jobs and productive activity ,not forcing the American people into Ponzi Scheme casino games based on bogus leverage and revolving around Wall Street . The Health care industry shouldn’t represent this high of a amount of GNP .
In the meantime you see these clips of third World Countries
slave labor workers and the life style they have and it’s just a exploiting of people and money going to corrupt and elite hands ,or corrupt government hands .
The greed machine doesn’t look at balance or pain and suffering of people ,or how sustainable the game is ,these entities just look at the bottom line short term profits and
gaming of the systems .No wonder the US people look in terms of gaming the systems also because of what is done to them . Moral hazard is going out the window to a system of picking and choosing who the bag-holders will be . The people from all Countries that are dis-functional should say enough is enough ,except in some Countries you would get shot if you
revolt against strong hands getting the lion share of the money .
http://www.sddt.com/Defense/article.cfm?SourceCode=20100305cze
“Economic fundamentals are not what’s driving the show. It’s political decisions,” said Beacon Economics founder Christopher Thornberg at the local CFA Society’s Investment Forecast Dinner. “I can say with complete certainty that given the current path of policy … we’re going to have a recession again at the beginning of 2011. He admitted federal officials will likely prevent that from happening, but said the double-dip risk remains high depending on the subsequent policy decisions.”
“Thornberg also pointed to historical patterns in housing bubbles: Downturns in the late 1970s and late 1980s took several years to recover.
“This is the biggest bubble we’ve ever seen, and we’re already seeing the market start to bounce,” Thornberg said. “It just doesn’t make sense that it would bounce back this fast.” Furthermore, the housing market still has to deal with the numerous borrowers still underwater. In San Diego, more than 37 percent of almost 600,000 mortgages have zero or negative equity, Thornberg said.”
“The other two speakers at the CFA Society event were more positive, calling the upturn a “textbook recovery” and predicting sustained growth in the markets. Both Thomas Lee, chief U.S. strategist for JPMorgan, and David Goerz, chief investment officer for HighMark Capital Management, presented very bullish views on equities, citing a return in both consumer and company spending.”
“This year, however, will be a good year, Thornberg said. He sees the San Diego economy as likely to outperform the state and the nation because of strength in science and military spending, including investment in developing unmanned aerial vehicles. Thornberg added that San Diego lost very few jobs in the science sector during the downturn.”
“calling the upturn a “textbook recovery”
So all other economic “recoveries” were due to a goblin-like little man printing money out of thin air and buying up every piece of bad debt known to man? These people should stick to their little textbooks in their ivory towers. They certainly don’t know how the real world works.
I believe we need socialized medicine, and fast, just to deal with the epidemic of Rectal Cranial Inversion that has swept the country. Otherwise known as “head up the a$$ syndrome” this disease will destroy the nation if treatments are not started, and soon. Our politicians should be first on the list to receive treatment.
““head up the a$$ syndrome”
Medical term is: ‘analcephalic compaction’
Rectal Cranial Inversion ??
Boy…You are on a roll today…
He brushes his teeth in the morning with Jack Daniels and he then he swallows.
What’s wrong with swallowing?
I don’t think you’d be complaining if that was the default option in the spits-or-swallows debate!
Swallow away, NYCityBoy, swallow away!
“I can say with complete certainty that given the current path of policy … we’re going to have a recession again at the beginning of 2011. He admitted federal officials will likely prevent that from happening,…”
Sounds like Thornberg’s ‘prediction’ is in the bag. If there is a double-dip recession, he can loudly proclaim he called it. If there is no double-dip recession, he will point out all the measures federal officials took to prevent it. Heads you win, tails you win economic forecasting is the most reliable methodology!
Harry Truman wished he could find a one-handed economist.
Apparently, two-handed economists can make more reliable predictions.
P.S. For anyone who happens to travel through Independence, MO (near KC), I recommend visiting the Harry Truman house.
P.S. For anyone who happens to travel through Independence, MO (near KC), I recommend visiting the Harry Truman house.
It was closed in Oct. for restoration when I tried to go. It’s open again this spring. The Truman library is about 8 blocks away and is very interesting. The Eisenhower presidential library is in “nearby” Abilene Kansas too.
A side note on the scary “public option”:
(November, 1945) President Truman called for the creation of a national health insurance fund to be run by the federal government. This fund would be open to all Americans, but would remain optional. Participants would pay monthly fees into the plan, which would cover the cost of any and all medical expenses that arose in a time of need. The government would pay for the cost of services rendered by any doctor who chose to join the program. In addition, the insurance plan would give a cash balance to the policy holder to replace wages lost due to illness or injury.
The American Medical Association (AMA) launched a spirited attack against the bill, capitalizing on fears of Communism in the public mind. The AMA characterized the bill as “socialized medicine”, and in a forerunner to the rhetoric of the McCarthy era, called Truman White House staffers “followers of the Moscow party line”.
Trumanlibrary.org
I remember my dad, a rabid anti-democrat railing on and on against the notion of socialized medicine during the run up to Medicare in 1964. My dad never lived long enough to use Medicare, but my mother was on it for 20 years or so.
For better or worse, health care delivery and funding would be radically different today if it weren’t for Medicare. The concept of Medicare is good, the execution not so. The politicians never had the courage to fund it on an actuarially sound basis or to make rational limitations on what care can be provided.
If Thornberg is right about another dip into the recession in 2011, plan on seeing low interest rates for another year or two. And we know 2011 the resets will be huge.
This is why I don’t want too much cash as opposed to my 3% and 4% yielding municipal bonds.
My primary goal - for now - is to have too much cash.
“My primary goal - for now - is to have too much cash”
And should cash fail…a fast car, a 45 and a trip to visit my cousin…the country mouse on the family farm.
Well ok then, I prefer having enough cash to pay for all of the following: the taxes on my Roth conversion, have a year worth of living expenses, and be able to buy that sexy BMW in case I don’t want my municipal bond interest to pay for the lease!
“And should cash fail..”
As in Weimar? Or Zimbabwe? Failure due to hyperinflation, meaning too much money chasing too few goods?
We’ll see. My bet is placed squarely on deflation, not hyperinflation. Everything I see happening around me strengthens my conviction that I am right and the hyperinflationists are wrong.
I feel less and less comfortable with my cash…
Who knows if nominal declines of housing prices EVER materialize in our brave new world of “printing-press-on”/government intervention.
Meanwhile, December YoY inflation for things that we need (food, energy) was 5.8%. Cash in savings account pays what, 1%? That’s a loss of (4.8%) on cash deposits. Ouch.
Check you numbers, the real rate is closer to
2%
We are definitely in strange times. As GS-X-Fixer said the other day, if you live somewhere that benefits from Wall St. or Fed Gov’t largesse you can’t be blamed for wondering what all the fuss is about. But if you live where the economy depends on Main St. it’s a different story.
How the Fed Gov’t deals with their runaway spending will eventually determine what kind of inflation deflation mix we end up with. Year after year of near 2 trillion dollar deficits will eventually have an impact. I saw hyperinflation in Mexico in the late 70’s, and early 80’s and Jose 6 Cervezas wasn’t driving it. He was perpetually broke while the printing presses cranked out pesos with such fervor that the the peso went from $22 to a USD to over $200 in just a few months, eventually reaching over $10,000 to a USD. It was literally mind blowing as the hyper inflation literally appeared out of nowhere over. And keep in mind that back them Mexico was a fairly self suffcient country that didn’t rely as much on imports as we do now. Curiously, the Mexodus didn’t really begin until much later when Mexico tamed it inflation monster.
“And should cash fail..”
Relax combo…I’m with you and just through that line out for fun.
Whether we like it or not, it’s all about Faith in the US Dollar regardless of it’s value or fluctuations.
What do you think that this national fuss is all about?
It’s about j6p being able to throw a US greenback on the table and getting something in return of relative value. He can even do it with a plastic card and 0’s and 1’s while the system or game still works. Throwing down a gold coin or a 401k statement, it would just confuse the kid at McDonalds even more.
Should that system ever fail, the country fails…then forget it as all bets are off.
Your life as you’ve known it, will never be the same regardless if you have a pile of gold bars, chocolate bars, cigarettes or a machine gun stashed away.
To each his own ….and Good Luck.
“…Throwing down a gold coin or a 401k statement, it would just confuse the kid at McDonalds even more”
’specially since all they would have been taught for the last 5 years would be to references about their parents… 201K’s
“Should that system ever fail, the country fails…then forget it as all bets are off. Your life as you’ve known it, will never be the same regardless if you have a pile of gold bars, chocolate bars, cigarettes or a machine gun stashed away.”
This has been my position for years and the root of my contempt for Aladinsane. If you’re rooting for collapse 1. you don’t know how good we have it, and 2. you’re an idiot.
If you’re rooting for collapse 1. you don’t know how good we have it, and 2. you’re an idiot.
Zackly! It’s like living in late 30s Germany or France and thinking investing in gold will insulate you from all misfortune.
I don’t like this collapse concept because God knows what you could get in response to it . Everybody thinks that the rising up of the ashes would be better ,but you don’t have any assurance that the rising up will be a system you would like. It would be the most dangerous point in history to lose all of what was good about what these Founding Fathers came up with in the USA .
I don’t want to have a Communist Country because it’s a violation of many of the freedoms I have had in my life .Maybe some people would function very well under a communist
system ,but go ahead and shoot me if I’m alive if this happens as a result of any emergency situations . You already see people buying into this concept of Government being the big Daddy that defines your life and takes care of you . You are the best person to define what you want and when you want it and determine if your willing to work for
any goal you might want .
Rigged systems just suck,especially if they aren’t even for some public good .People lose their incentive if they are taken care of and people become to greedy and criminal if they aren’t regulated within capitalist systems and the rule of law.
Housing Wizard- Your fears are mine. Those that root for collapse have a much higher estimation of their fellow man than I do.
I find it amusing that so many here ascribe ‘wishful thinking’ to liberals, when it’s the supposed libertarians (and *some* conservatives) who think that if the whole thing crashes down we’ll somehow magically realize new freedoms and efficiencies. History shows otherwise. Desperate people like dictators, not civil liberties.
Oh I’m one libertarian (classical liberal) who fears revolution now. Most people in America today are philosophically retarded. Most couldn’t care less about the principles which led to our Nation, and could not name them.
Sometimes I think if the politicians can stave off the inevitable collapse, that’s the best that can happen for us who have not prepared enough for that collapse.
“Zackly! It’s like living in late 30s Germany or France and thinking investing in gold will insulate you from all misfortune.”
Or worse, Kevin Costner’s The Postman.
alpha-sloth -I’m on your page
To be more specific ,I don’t think the BK of some corrupt Companies or some reform of some faulty systems is
collapse ,but rather needed correction . A lot of the Global systems that came to be just became exploitation and a
destabilization of the USA .
This train that we are on isn’t what I would call sustainable if you value the Majority having a reasonable lifestyle and continued opportunity for choices .I see a view of a narrower
and narrower form of one option after the other being eliminated until you could have the various forms of entire takeovers . It’s a really dangerous situation right now . It really worries me that the rule of law has been totally ignored in this meltdown in a lot of respects .
Anyway ,I say painful correction ,not collapse.
What I did not get is the “37% of 600,000 mortgages”…I would think there are a lot more mortgages than that in San Diego…
That was my thought, too, but I honestly have almost nothing on which to base my opinion.
But as a first attempt, think of it this way:
- There are about 3 m San Diegans; supposing they live 3 per household; that would imply 1 m SD hh’s.
- If 60 pct of these were home owners with mortgages, that would imply 60%*1m = 600,000 households with mortgages.
Doesn’t that sound roughly plausible?
Yes it does so those numbers may be accurate…
Here are some 2005 numbers from SANDAG:
http://www.sandag.org/index.asp?newsid=400&fuseaction=news.detail
“Housing units in the region increased by just 6.6 percent between 2000 and 2005 to a total of 1,108,500. The average household size (persons per household) in the San Diego region is now 2.77, up from 2.73 in 2000.”
Considering the percentage that own is less than the national average, that number of mortgages looks about right even accounting for the increase in housing units since 2005 and accounting for some percentage that are paid off.
Also from that 2005 (bubble peak in SD) report:
“The SANDAG report, part of the agency’s periodic info series, validates that home builders have been unable to meet the demands of a growing population. San Diego Region Demographic and Economic Characteristics [PDF] also shows that this demand versus supply imbalance has contributed to the upward spiral of housing costs, more people deciding to live under one roof, and ever-daunting commutes from Riverside and Imperial Counties and Baja California.”
No mention of a bubble at all. Price trends were supposedly just being driven by supply/demand imbalances. Odd. That apparently only applies when prices are going up. When do we get declines commensurate with the excess supply? Prices are still much higher than 2000, a time when supply was much tighter.
“In San Diego, more than 37 percent of almost 600,000 mortgages have zero or negative equity, Thornberg said.”
That would be about 37*600,000/100 = 222,000 underwater mortgages in San Diego County whose borrowers face the choice of either walking away or paying off a debt on an asset whose value has depreciated below the principle value of the loan.
Paying off the loan then selling the home could amount to throwing away money, as the sales proceeds over the foreseeable future are unlikely to be sufficient to cover the principle payments that would need to be made to pay off the loan.
Giving the home back to the bank and walking away could also amount to throwing away money, if the home owner has already made principle and interest payments on the loan over a period of years, provided the owner could have rented a comparable home for far less.
As there are only 8,183 homes (SFRs + condos) currently listed on the San Diego MLS versus something like 200,000+ underwater homes whose fate hangs in the balance, I don’t believe that now is a good time to buy.
If universal health care passes, could I not then argue that I need a free house to live in. Maslows hierarchy, states that people need there physiologic needs meet. Housing would fall under that. So I should get a free house as part of my health care plan.
“I should get a free house as part of my health care plan.”
… one that is fully equipted with a fully equipted full-time live-in young nurse.
Now you’re talking!
You could make the argument for free housing right now. After all there are flat-broke people who get free housing. But I hope you like living in the projects, because that’s all the housing they generally get.
I’ll say it again. If you are not be be a hypocrite, demand that Medicare be repealed immediately, and that employer provided health insurance be fully taxable. Immediately, not for those who are below age 55.
The government, directly or indirectly, is paying for more than three quarters of all third party health care expenditures. Some get unlimited subsidies, some get nothing — and will continue to get nothing when they are old and the government is broke.
Who is objecting to limiting government funding for those who have in order to provide SOMETHING for those who pay and get nothing? Those with the sweetest deals: the public employee unions, the rich, and today’s seniors. More greed from Generation Greed.
My children will not get, and I will not get in old age? Repeal Medicare now.
“Repeal Medicare now.”
But I love massive government distortions of the marketplace in the name of “affordable” whatever the heck it might be.
I don’t think that anyone is proposing that the single payor system would be “free”, except for the indigent (which it already is).
Only in the US do the indigent have guaranteed free healthcare (medicaid) while the middle class, who pays for everything, gets bupkus. The middle class isn’t asking for “free healthcare”, we just want it to be reasonably priced with a guarantee of access.
Is that too much to ask for? Or do we simply wait for the annual double digit price increases to eventually price healthcare out of everyone’s reach?
Naysayers like to gripe that reform will “ration” healthcare. Well, since we can’t afford the system we have now, it appears that rationing will be the only way to control costs. We can’t have multiple MRI systems in small towns.We have about 3 different “imaging” clinics in my little burb of 50K folks. Got overkill? Would it be unreasonable to drive 30 miles to get an MRI?
Good post. Thank you.
“We can’t have multiple MRI systems in small towns…”
1. Make Hospitals “for-profit”
2. Lease expensive medical equipment
3. Make testing “routine” for everybody, even for nose-hair exams
4. Charge a “hel!-of-alotta-money” for testing
5. Bill the patient, Insurance Co. & Gov’t…13+x’s
6. Have patient come back for a least x3 followup
7. Have “operations” secure building crane for x3 years due to future expansion…
*If overrun with “indigent” patients, secure volume discount with “local” taxi cab company.
This is my problem with the status quo. The trend of the status quo is greater cost for less coverage - every year. And that is for those of us who have insurance.
I already ration our health care. We have some chronic conditions that I have been ignoring in favor of urgent ones. Eventually, they will become urgent -if we live long enough.
that seems more and more likely all the time.
The sad truth is people would reject the price increase eventually and than people would be forced to pay by some Act by Congress that would protect the insurance Companies rights and the medical providers rights to have their money with this insurance and provider monopoly .
I got a copy of the new Company provided Health plan Could not believe how many prior covered services were gone and how much more in co-pays and increase in premiums It’s becoming a
racket ,so a government run racket might be cheaper . I have never used the health system that much myself because I have been into prevention and I still don’t have any medical conditions
at my age (knock on wood). But I do feel for anybody that does
need the medical system and that could happen to anybody at anytime ,even if you take good care of yourself.
If you need a expensive operation ,than the insurance system paid off for you ,if you don’t you paid a lot of money for nothing .
Here is a nuanced argument which suggests that like heroin, housing market stimulus has a diminishing ability over time to get produce the same initial high, unless the dosage is steadily increased. Of course, steadily increasing the dosage comes with its own potentially lethal unintended consequences.
Housing Recovery Stalls
Posted by Stephen Gandel
Friday, February 26, 2010 at 12:13 pm
For a while there, it seemed the housing market had made the turn to recovery. Housing sales were up in nearly every month in 2009. But today it looks like real estate is headed back down again. The National Association of Realtors is out with its monthly housing stats and sales were down 7.2% in January from the month before, the second month in a row that housing sales fell. The realtor’s association is trying to spin these numbers to say they are not as bad as they appear. I don’t buy it. …
the NAR’s biggest argument for why you should ignore these numbers has to do with the first-time homebuyer tax credit. The $8,000 break was scheduled to end in November, but news that Congress was going to extend the credit started surfacing in September. It generally takes three months to close a house purchase. So sales would have stalled in August as people got closer to not being able to meet the original November deadline. But by mid to late September, as it became clear that the credit was going to be extended, sales should have picked up again. That should have translated into more sales in January. But it didn’t. And that may be the worst news yet about the housing market. If the housing market is no longer responding to the stimulus of tax breaks, the housing market might actually be in worse shape than we thought.
They NAR should take a close look at the auto industry and its practice of offering rebates and 0% interest loans. You can only cannibalize future sales for so long. Eventually the pipeline is sucked dry.
+1.
PB, I saw that pending sales had dropped 7.6% and the NAR explanation that “The abnormally severe and prolonged winter weather, which affected large regions of the U.S., hampered shopping activity in February,” Lawrence Yun, the groups chief economist said in a statement. “We will see weak near-term sales followed by a likely surge in existing-home sales in April, May and June.”
Based on Yun’s statement, I assume he’s seen the preliminary feb. no’s and I’d bet that they’re going to be even worse.
Regional 1/10 over 1/09 drops in pending sales breakdown:
west 13%
midwest 8.9%
northeast 8.7%
south 2.1%
I live in the west, I must have missed the severe and prolonged weather.
RealtyTrac reported that foreclosure filings rose 15% for 1/10 vs. 1/09.
So, despite massive governmental effort at dangling the carrot to ‘get buyers off the fence,’ pending sales are down from last year and foreclosure filings are up. When all of this started to play out I did not foresee the gov’s intervention, I would now not be surprised to see even more frantic and substantial govt. efforts to stop this snowball from gaining size as it rolls downhill.
I guess by Ira Glass’s reckoning, the whole financial crisis thingee was some kind of a straw man?
377: Scenes from a Recession
03.27.2009
The economy works in mysterious ways. This week, we highlight the unusual circumstances our economic drought has left us in, and the newly hatched plans being made to survive it: including a partially-renovated condo building in Chicago, whose developers have abandoned it — though they didn’t bother to tell the 19 unit owners who still live there, paying their mortgages. And a story which tracks the FDIC during its most covert operation: taking over an unsuspecting bank.
PROLOGUE.
Host Ira Glass notes the sub-industry in journalism right now of reporting anything that looks like a sign of the recession. He then goes on to list a handful of his own favorites, including a dentist who’s seen an increase in broken teeth from grinding, and a decrease in shark attacks.
I guess by Ira Glass’s reckoning, the whole financial crisis thingee was some kind of a straw man?
On the contrary, This American Life aired a fairly well-constructed episode on financial issues — and where housing fit into the equation — about a year earlier.
The Giant Pool Of Money
This American Life producer Alex Blumberg teams up with NPR’s Adam Davidson for the entire hour to tell the story—the surprisingly entertaining story—of how the U.S. got itself into a housing crisis. They talk to people who were actually working in the housing, banking, finance and mortgage industries, about what they thought during the boom times, and why the bust happened. And they explain that a lot of it has to do with the giant global pool of money. (Episode 355; first aired 05.09.2008)
I have listened to that episode a couple of times…Very good…
“…the sub-industry in journalism right now of reporting anything that looks like a sign of the recession.”
I found that comment irritatingly cute. Increased teeth-grinding, which leads to an increase in broken teeth, sounds to me like it could be the direct consequence of economic worries, but Glass seems to be dismissive of the possibility…
I found that comment irritatingly cute. Increased teeth-grinding, which leads to an increase in broken teeth, sounds to me like it could be the direct consequence of economic worries, but Glass seems to be dismissive of the possibility…
It seemed to me like more of a commentary on editors who’re constantly looking for a new angle on a well-entrenched story (e.g., the recession).
I tend to agree with the Giant Pool of Global Money Theory ,along with the faulty lending of it of course .
Shouldn’t a money supply be based on what a market needs and
can contain in terms of sustainable ? If the area local jobs can’t support development than whats the point ,its like putting the chart before the horse .
Builders were building tracts for investors and flippers and equity locust ,but locals were being priced out of the market based on their jobs .Usually retirement locations were cheaper places like Ariz. ,but they got inflated up based on temporary construction jobs and any industry that revolves around Real Estate like the furniture business and Home Depot . All that money going into consumer spending by debt
that created the jobs that are gone now has exposed the
scheme of it all .
I thought it was a total joke how they use to spin that the rich Baby Boomers were going to buy all these large square footage places out in the middle of nowhere at inflated prices ,or maybe the rich Foreigners .I remember reading about some place that was hyped up as the next great place to invest because of some job development that wasn’t scheduled to start construction for 10 years . Your going to pay your monthly nut for 10 years waiting for the job development, how is that going to work out .
The way it use to work was that a industry would decide to build a plant or something that would create jobs , Than all of a sudden a need for housing would come about and homes would
be built after a shortage was taking place for a while .
In truth less supply of home should of been built between 1999
and 2006 because jobs were being cut and outsourced ,plants
were closing down in favor of Global manufacturing and income was not keeping up with inflation . It all goes back to the Market Makers creating these fake demand markets . Yes,I believe its a fake demand market if it require putting a person into hopeless debt they can’t afford by funny money .
Is the stopped-clock prediction for a housing recovery at the end of the (current) year still intact? For how many years already has this prediction remained current?
* The Wall Street Journal
* MARCH 3, 2010, 3:07 P.M. ET
S&P Lifts Masco Outlook On Expected Housing Market Recovery
DOW JONES NEWSWIRES
Standard & Poor’s Ratings Services lifted its outlook on Masco Corp. (MAS) to stable from negative, citing expectations of a housing market recovery in 2010, which will help improve the market for home repairs and remodeling.
“Although we believe demand in 2010 will still be soft, we expect modestly better credit metrics in 2010, with substantially greater improvement in 2011 as housing activity begins to return toward the long-term historic average of about 1.5 million starts,” said S&P credit analyst Pamela Rice.
…
“citing expectations of a housing market recovery in 2010″
Whose expectations? Certainly not mine.
Are these analysts stupid, ignorant, or corrupt? Or a combination of all three?
How can the market “recover” with all the looming mortgage resets, high unemployment, and tighter credit?
And, if the $8000 credit is gone how are people going to buy homes with NO MONEY DOWN?
My assumption is that articles which repeat the stopped-clock prediction of a housing recovery one year out serve to lure greater fools into making asset purchases which will pay off if the stopped-clock prediction pans out. So far, so bad…
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Banks-shuttered-in-Fla-Ill-apf-2958911227.html?x=0&.v=5
Four more banks shut down on Friday, bringing the 2010 total to 26.
There has never been a better time to treat your fellow employees with kindness and respect.
* The Wall Street Journal
* MARCH 7, 2010
Health Costs
Recession’s Mental Toll
By M.P. MCQUEEN
The recession and continuing high unemployment are taking a psychological toll on individuals.
The number and urgency of calls to employee-assistance programs have risen substantially over the past couple of years, providers say. In particular, there’s been a startling increase in the number of calls regarding violence, psychosis and dementia in the workplace, including calls about suicidal and homicidal threats, program directors say.
“All of a sudden the economy tanked and we have had a big jump in the number of calls, and the variety of calls is very different from what we saw a couple of years ago,” says Charles Lattarulo, clinical director of Harris Rothenberg International, a provider of employee and employer assistance programs.
Employee assistance programs offer workers and their families access to counselors via a toll-free telephone number or in some cases a Web site. Often, counselors are available 24 hours a day, seven days a week to help employees in an emergency.
A 400% Jump
Mr. Lattarulo says the number of calls to Harris Rothenberg’s programs rose every month in 2009 from the previous year, sometimes by as much as 40%. There was a jump of 400% or more some months in manager referrals for suicidal, homicidal, or otherwise dangerous employees.
At provider ComPsych, calls about financial problems outnumbered calls for relationship issues for the first time last year, a spokeswoman says.
Financial pressures — home foreclosures, bankruptcies and prolonged spousal unemployment — are straining marital and family life, and contributing to behavioral problems in children and teenagers, Mr. Lattarulo says.
And a new concern: Depleted retirement funds are forcing many older employees to stay in the workplace longer, despite health problems or cognitive impairments. “For the first time ever, we are having multiple calls [from managers] because of people in the workplace with dementia,” Mr. Lattarulo says.
…
Re-read yesterday’s thread with coffee early AM…thought this might help today:
http://hosted.bigasssuperstar.com/uploaded_images/bmepb171269-757170.jpg
After that…more drugs might help.
Don’t let online priorities stand in the way of your parental obligations!
Web Addicted Couple Starves Baby
3/6/2010 5:17:05 PM
A South Korean couple let their baby starve to death as they played an online virtual reality game raising a girl character. Video courtesy of Reuters.
The Icelandic situation relative to the EU offers an interesting contrast to that of the Greeks.
The timeline below the excerpt from the FT story suggests the PM’s political calculations were way off.
The Financial Times
Iceland rejects Icesave repayment deal
By Andrew Ward in Reykjavik and Joshua Chaffin in Cordoba
Published: March 6 2010 15:56 | Last updated: March 7 2010 00:01
Icelanders voted overwhelmingly on Saturday to reject a €3.9bn debt repayment deal with Britain and the Netherlands in a move that threatens to derail international support for the country’s crisis-hit economy.
With half the vote counted 93.6 per cent voted against the plan to reimburse money lost by British and Dutch depositors in the failed Icesave bank when Iceland’s banking sector collapsed in 2008.
Only 1.5 per cent supported the deal, with another 4.8 per cent casting empty or spoilt ballots.
The resounding rejection reflected deep public anger over a deal which critics said would punish taxpayers for the mistakes of bankers and regulators and pile more debts on a country of 320,000 people struggling to rebuild its shattered economy.
The outcome will force the three countries back to the negotiating table after more than a year of abortive efforts to solve a dispute that has held up crucial loans from the International Monetary Fund and cast a cloud over Reykjavik’s bid to join the European Union.
…
EDITOR’S CHOICE
Iceland renews talks on €3.9bn debt dispute - Feb-28
Icesave referendum to go ahead - Mar-04
Iceland PM confident of Icesave deal - Mar-05
Icelanders confused on repayment vote - Mar-05
I guess the PTB won’t relent until Icelanders agree to be the bagholders for the banksters mistakes. I can already see Icelanders working as illegals in foreign countries, sending “remittances” home so the family can eat and stay warm.
Big surge in Icelandic nannies and au pairs, I bet.
I really don’t understand why Icelanders would be expected to bailout a bank that they had nothing to do with. I also don’t understand why the bankers are not in prison for a long time.
It is all quite beyond me. I really don’t get it. Honestly.
Roidy
Um…I got shafted with the Bush/Obama bailout of Wall Street, even though I was vehemently opposed to the irresponsible lending and reckless speculation that got us into this mess. And I haven’t seen any bankers but Madoff go to prison. The very worst offenders, Goldman Sachs, are still calling the shots at the White House.
It’s quite beyond me, too.
It’s beyond me too. (How do I get au pair of them icelandic nannies again?)
They need to be taught a lesson, any chance they have some WMD hidden up there?
Darn right it’s beyond me to ACH . I guess it was a matter of keeping a corrupt system going and preventing the discovery of just how bad
these entities and their Casino and leverage games were ,not to mention their faulty ratings on risk .I think they would of had a lot of liability for this Ponzi-scheme that they avoided by bail-outs . But from everything that I have noticed they don’t want to change the financial systems .They keep arguing over who will run the so-called new regulatory agencies ,and you know how faulty regulatory agencies can be verses just strong laws preventing overly risky behavior .
It would be like bailing out Madoff for 65 billion so his investors
didn’t discover that his Ponzi-scheme was bogus .
I would like to know how they are going to get a secondary market going again ,in other words investors who would be interested in
putting up money for loans ,rather than the government backing everything at lower rates that they are now doing . Look at what they have done with the credit card rates to either compensate for their losses or get investors to invest because of the higher yields .
God forbid that the Government might do something that would limit Goldman’s ability to make max returns on casino games and leverage and credit default swaps and selling bogus securities backed by real estate .
This story left me scratching my head. Is there any advantage to the seller from limiting the pool of potential bidders in an asset sale?
P.S. This might be a good opportunity for any international bond market investor who meets the “not a hedge fund” qualification to participate.
The Financial Times
Greeks ban hedge funds in bond sale
By David Oakley in London and Kerin Hope in Athens and Quentin Peel in Berlin
Published: March 5 2010 21:03 | Last updated: March 5 2010 21:03
Greece ordered its bankers to exclude hedge funds from a bond offering this week in an effort to punish the speculators it blames for destabilising its debt markets.
The decision came amid growing anger among European leaders over what they see as the role speculators played in undermining the Greek debt market and driving the country towards a possible default.
In a meeting in Berlin on Friday Angela Merkel, the German chancellor, and George Papandreou, the Greek prime minister, promised a joint push both in the European Union and the Group of 20 leading economies to clamp down on speculators who seek to exploit uncertainty over sovereign debt.
Ms Merkel said that both countries would seek “to show that speculative instruments need to be contained, especially where it is speculation against states”. She mentioned credit default swaps as one target of such an initiative, but gave no other clear details.
…
The ratings agencies appear to get ever more discriminating with their judgment of credit risk. I wonder what the implications of a story like this are for other debtor states with sizable debt burdens (e.g., California)?
The Financial Times
Moody’s downgrades Abu Dhabi companies
By Robin Wigglesworth in Abu Dhabi
Published: March 4 2010 13:23 | Last updated: March 4 2010 13:49
Moody’s downgraded government groups in oil-rich Abu Dhabi on Thursday, after reviewing state-linked entities following neighbouring Dubai’s $22bn debt restructuring.
The troubles at Dubai World, the debt-laden conglomerate owned by Abu Dhabi’s northern neighbour, has rattled financial markets and led many people to question the level of government support that state-linked conglomerates in the United Arab Emirates can command.
“Dubai has changed the dynamic of how investors look at government-related entities,” said Nish Popat, head of fixed income at ING Investment Management in Dubai. “People will now look at each entity on a case by case basis.”
The downgrades included leading companies involved in Abu Dhabi’s ambitious development plans such as Mubadala, the sovereign investment fund with stakes in the Carlyle Group and General Electric, Tourist Development & Investment Company, which is developing the $27bn Saadiyat Island project, and International Petroleum Investment Company.
The credit ratings of Mubadala and IPIC were downgraded by one notch to Aa3, and TDIC was downgraded two notches to A1, because of its higher exposure to large, early-stage real estate projects.
While Abu Dhabi has “formally assured Moody’s that it fully and unconditionally stands behind these entities for any debt” the ratings agency “has decided to introduce a moderate distinction between their ratings and that of the sovereign given that no explicit formal agreement exists obligating the government to support them under all circumstances”.
…
From Rio:
I never said I wanted to socialize it like other countries. Instead of socializing like other countries, I have said that I would welcome a system like the VA or Medicare that people could buy into or it be supported by taxes with also a private system to compliment it. I don’t care how its done but I want basic healthcare available to all at prices similar to other 1st world countries with EVERYONE able to get coverage.
I just mentioned an outline plan again up top which addresses costs because Medicare and the VA address costs better than Blue Cross.
I wrote that rather than create a new agency, why not expand medicare? Months ago. Don’t think it is a good idea but better than current legislation. As I noted before, the data about costs efficiency of the government enterprises is in question. So I don’t trust those numbers. Efficiency and government don’t go together often.
Your talk of taxes paying for the program while available to everyone is social welfare program and another industry pushed to socialism. Not a trend I support.
If you make a very attractive program that everyone has to pay for and it’s cheaper for employers; everyone will get thrown into it. Only a few elite will be able to afford anything else.
Not sure what effect that will have in the US. Perhaps it will result in simplification for business and result in making things better. Or it will turn out to be a disruptive disaster that bankrupts the country. Medicare is already doing a good job of that. Filled with fraud and poorly thought out programs.
Good. We agree on a few things. But what is “socialism” when applied to a public option, tax paid medical insurance, the VA, Medicare or even private health insurance? No one really has the complete answer because public welfare programs and private health insurance both address social needs and services but for different reasons.
For example: Here is one of may articles arguing most private insurance is a form of privately administered socialism anyway.
What They Don’t Want You to Know About Capitalism & Socialism
Do you believe in insurance? Yes, even health insurance, and in fact all insurance, is a form of socialism. Why? Because it spreads costs evenly among everyone in an insurance category even though each individual uses uneven amounts of their health coverage.
The article also discusses “socialism’s” role in, emergency room visits, police, and the military.
http://www.thenewiq.com/integritywatch-blog/what-they-dont-want-you-know-about-capitalism-socialism
Another person explained it this way:
All insurance is a form of socialism. Those who are well pay the premiums to cover those who are sick, with the hope it will be there when they need it. The only difference is in who administers it. Private insurers are primarily concerned with the bottom line. I see this in the constant premium increases and higher deductibles.
And here is a good excerpt out of the PNHP (Physicians for a National Health Program) that argues that a national health plan would not be “socialized medicine”.
Is national health insurance ‘socialized medicine’?
No. Socialized medicine is a system in which doctors and hospitals work for and draw salaries from the government. Doctors in the Veterans Administration and the Armed Services are paid this way. The health systems in Great Britain and Spain are other examples. But in most European countries, Canada, Australia and Japan they have socialized health insurance, not socialized medicine. The government pays for care that is delivered in the private (mostly not-for-profit) sector. This is similar to how Medicare works in this country. Doctors are in private practice and are paid on a fee-for-service basis from government funds. The government does not own or manage medical practices or hospitals.
The term socialized medicine is often used to conjure up images of government bureaucratic interference in medical care. That does not describe what happens in countries with national health insurance where doctors and patients often have more clinical freedom than in the U.S., where bureaucrats attempt to direct care.
http://www.pnhp.org/facts/single-payer-faq
According to the PNHP, most European countries, Canada, Australia and Japan have socialized health insurance, not socialized medicine. And according to many, private health insurance has an aspect of socialism about it as well. Therefore throwing the word “socialism” around does not really acknowledge the nature of it’s current involvement in “private” health-care anyway.
As we can see, it is much more complicated than most think.
Oh, come on now, Rio. Don’t throw a bunch of facts and nuanced, well-reasoned thought in front of a ‘gut feeling’ that somehow what works for the rest of the world just can’t work here.
Tankxs Rio, I’ll use this for my… “TrueBeliever’s™ / TrueDeceiver’s ™” / “TrueHypocrite™” / “TruePurity™” siblings come this Easter family gathering, when their Catholic feelings of “TrueUnderstanding™” is in full blossom.
“Doctors in the Veterans Administration and the Armed Services are paid this way.”
I’ll remind them about the 2x the VA prolonged the life of “their Father” in this life. Might mention about how our Gov’t can’t do anything good and those VA Doctors & staff must totally resent being paid horrible wages.
Good post Rio . You can’t really say that insurance systems are pure capitalism based on supply and demand ,yet people act like our Health system is based on that .
If you put the Health care system on a pure supply and demand basis ,
it would be shocking how that would change the prices .
There is a lot of price fixing that goes on in the medical system to the upside because it is a insurance system .
Why would the Health care industry be raising pricing in a recession, did the cost of bandages go up ?
I also don’t like this haggling aspect when it comes to insurance companies trying to deny coverage of something ,or their version of increasing their bottom line by rationing .
And another insurance system ,being mal-practice for Doctors increases costs in spite of the fact that few people sue actually ,but look at the extra costs involved protecting the providers ,no matter how fake it is in charting and extra tests .
The pharmacy companies are also having a big influence on medical care and costs today .
But isn’t it true that older people would need the medical system more ? Darn ,some of these people I know talk about going to the doctor all the time and the providers milk it to much .
Here is a little grade school arithmetic exercise on bank failure rates, for anyone sufficiently interested to pay attention to this. I am sure this could be improved considerably with a bit of effort:
Annualized U.S. bank failure rate since September 2008:
- The number of years and fractions thereof from September 2008 to the present = (4 + 12 + 2)/12 = 1.5
- Annualized U.S. bank failure rate over the period from September 2008 to the present = 180/1.5 = 120/year.
- Annualized U.S. bank failure rate thus far in 2010:
12*26/2 = 12*13 = 156/year.
Tentative conclusions:
1) 156/year is significantly higher than 120/year.
2) The U.S. bank failure rate has accelerated considerably since Fall 2008.
3) Recklessly generalizing from the extraordinarily large number of “for lease” signs I see on commercial RE all around San Diego and other parts of SoCal, commercial RE appears to be the next major debt bomb which remains to drop on the U.S. banking system.
4) Judging from the source of the article posted below, Asians are watching our banking crisis play out with considerable interest.
US sees 26 bank failures so far this year; four go belly up in one day
Press Trust of India / New York March 07, 2010, 15:29 IST
The American economy might be reviving but the count of bank collapses are rising by the day, with 26 entities biting the dust so far in 2010.
The country’s banking sector, which was rattled by the financial turmoil, continues to remain shaky, with small and medium banks suffering the most.
A whopping 180 banks have gone belly up since the bankruptcy of the then Wall Street major Lehman Brothers in September 2008.
Starting the month on a jittery note, four entities - Centennial Bank, Waterfield Bank, Bank of Illinois and Sun American Bank - were closed down on March 5.
…
They would close down 20 a week if they had the manpower. They will not officially say this of course. It is an intense time and manpower usage to close down a bank (find a buyer, setup loss share agreements, etc.)
Look at the level of predicted losses on the closed banks, 30-40% of total assets. In an ideal world, the FDIC would close down anything will a loss potential of 10-20%. That level of losses would wipe out capital of most banks.
Dear Mr. Bear, regarding you visit to Downtown Disney yesterday…Mr. Cole reminded Hwy that area of Disneyland is FREE,…Why a CORPORATION would provide something free is beyond Hwy’s thinkin’…
(Teens seemed to enjoy the FREE live music at night too)
(Hwy notes that the “educational” items obtained @ the Lego store, where not free…then again, the HP printer I got at Fry’s was quite cheap relative to the ink cartridges purchased every couple of months, for many, many, many years…)
“…that area of Disneyland is FREE…”
Tell that to the managers of the restaurant where we dropped $200 worth of local economic stimulus.
That’s not stimulus…that’s spending!
It stimulated the little bear
yeah, you obviously haven’t seen the drink menus
To our waitress’s irritation, we enjoyed a round of water…
Always tell them how much you “saved” after the third round of water.
Also, ask them if they can multiply by 15% in their head.
If one must be a total and utter d*ck, one should strive not only for perfection but educational standards!
New home builders are trying to price themselves even further out of the market. This idea sounds really insane, given how competitive the housing market happens to be, with the supply side of the market offering used homes and rental homes as a substitute for new home construction.
I also have to question the legality of this scheme. Perhaps one of the HBB’s legal eagles could offer comment, as this non-legal beagle’s sniffer smells the stench of a potential antitrust law violation — not to suggest that antitrust laws are enforced any more these days on the lobbyist-heavy FIRE sector.
Economically speaking, it seems as though this scheme would reduce the purchase price of homes, as a rational buyer would subtract the discounted present value of the future stream of private transfer fees off the amount they would be willing to pay to purchase a home. Perhaps the main idea is to scam prospective buyers by keeping them in the dark about how to rationally discount the purchase price to reflect claims against future purchases which are built into the sales contract. I would think that calculation would be a hard one to make.
Watch out for private transfer fees
By Kenneth R. Harney / The Nation’s Housing
Sunday, March 7, 2010 - Added 13h ago
How about this for a new and ingenious real estate money machine: Every time a house sells during the next 99 years, 1 percent of the price goes back to the original developer or is shared among investor partners. Ka-ching!!!
The levy won’t be subject to haggling between future buyers and sellers, either. That’s because it’s a covenanted mandate - a novel type of lien on the underlying real estate - called a private transfer fee. It’s not a government transfer tax. Nor is it a homeowner association or environmental protection covenant. It’s purely a private requirement that runs with the land. If a seller refuses to pay it to a third-party trustee at closing, the sale won’t proceed.
Sounds like a great deal - provided you’re on the collecting end of a near-perpetual revenue stream. Apparently the idea has been attractive enough so that substantial numbers of developers and builders are signing up with a New York-based company that has devised what it calls a “patent-pending” system to tap into real estate transactions well into the next century.
Manhattan-based Freehold Capital Partners declines to identify any clients or participants in its private transfer fee program, but claims on its Web site that as of late 2009, “the owners of an estimated $488 billion in real estate projects nationwide, including some of the country’s largest, most well-respected companies, have partnered with Freehold.”
Though Freehold’s activities have stoked legislative controversies in several states, real estate trade groups who oppose the private fee concept now plan to fight it across the country in the coming months.
The National Association of Realtors and the American Land Title Association, for example, are asking their members to convince legislators to prohibit or limit the use of investor-oriented private transfer fee programs. Even the National Association of Home Builders, some of whose members reportedly have signed up to offer transfer fees, isn’t convinced the idea is sound.
“It’s a very creative concept,” said David Ledford, the builder association’s senior vice president for housing finance, “but it’s largely untested and controversial politically.”
…
Oh yeah, this “idea” is immune to the laws of demand and supply.
Any bond-trader worth his salt would tell you via the most basic spreadsheet that prices would drop exactly in tune to the “expected’ perpetual revenue stream.
Jeebus! I’m gonna go ballistic at this one. It hits all my buttons - economics, finance, math and moronicity!!!
“It hits all my buttons - economics, finance, math and moronicity!!!”
Glad to learn I struck such a resonant chord with that post!
Ol’ school is the only school.
13.8 million jobs does not sound like quite enough to sustain a population of 37m people, not to mention the reflation of a ginormous housing bubble, does it?
Turns out the CA recession in 2009 was lots worse than previously reported…who’d've thunk it?
California unemployment increases to 12.5%
By CATHY BUSSEWITZ, Associated Press Writer
Friday, March 5, 2010 at noon
SACRAMENTO — California’s unemployment rate grew slightly to 12.5 percent in January, the state Employment Development Department reported Friday. But the state also revised its December job numbers to show that about 300,000 additional jobs were lost that month.
The state’s unemployment rate in December was 12.3 percent. Officials had previously reported December’s unemployment rate at 12.4 percent, but revised that figure Friday.
Meanwhile, the national unemployment rate held steady at 9.7 percent.
“There are real people behind these statistics and they deserve real action by their elected officials,” Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger said in a statement, urging the Legislature to pass his job-creation proposal.
Despite the increase in unemployment in January, the state added 32,500 jobs. The construction industry saw the largest increase with an additional 16,200 jobs.
The information, financial activities, and professional and business services industries were the only ones that lost jobs.
“It is a sign that the sector worst hurt by this recession, the construction industry, may finally be growing again,” said Jed Kolko, associate director at the Public Policy Institute of California. “The increase in employment that we see now is consistent with the slow increase in housing prices in California that has been recently reported.”
But those positive numbers should be read with caution, one economist said, because the state significantly revised the number of jobs that were lost in December. California had 13.8 million jobs in December, revised from the 14.1 million that was previously reported. That means the state had 300,000 fewer jobs in December than it previously thought.
“The recession was a lot deeper in 2009 than the previous data had reported,” said Stephen Levy, director of the Center for Continuing Study of the California Economy.
…
“The increase in employment that we see now is consistent with the slow increase in housing prices in California that has been recently reported.”
It sounds like so long as California home prices keep going up from here, the CA economy is out of the woods…
Time to Get the Golden State back in shape!
Arnie to Mr. Bear: “California & I…will be back babeeeeee”!
“Governor Schwarzenegger was appointed by President George Shrub as Chairman of the President’s Council on Physical Fitness and Sports from 1990 to 1993, and also served as the Chairman for the California Governor’s Council on Physical Fitness and Sports under Governor Pete Wilson.”
From: The George Shrub Presidential Library Foundation.
George Shrub Award - 2004
Arnold Schwarzenegger:
“Arnold Schwarzenegger was sworn in as the 38th Governor of California on November 17, 2003. His landslide election as the state’s chief executive follows a distinguished career in business and entertainment.
Governor Schwarzenegger has pledged to restore California’s economic strength, rebuild our education system and end politics as usual in Sacramento, so the people’s interest takes center stage.”
“Mission Accomplished!”
One thing is for certain: Ahnold will be gone before CA is bach.
According to at least one self-proclaimed expert, Greece is too big to fail.
* The Wall Street Journal
* COMMON SENSE
* MARCH 3, 2010
No Greek Tragedy Here
By JAMES B. STEWART
Mention Greece, and I used to think of idyllic island holidays, azure seas and sky, classical ruins and the cradle of democracy. Remember “Mamma Mia”?
Now Greece is the profligate spender and shaky debtor of Europe, threatening to drag the financial system into another global crisis. Do investors need to worry that Greece will be the next Lehman Brothers?
So far events have been eerily reminiscent of 2008. Some of the same hedge funds that cashed in on the subprime mortgage crisis are said to have piled into credit default swaps on Greek bonds, betting Greece will default on the debt, driving up the cost of insurance against default. Reports that European banks, especially those in Germany and France, have big exposures to Greek debt have been driving down their stock prices.
We know how interconnected the global banking system has become. Just as European banks Société Générale and Deutsche Bank turned out to be two of the biggest American International Group counterparties, American banks and financial institutions could well be on the hook for guaranteeing Greek debt against default. And where that chain of swaps ends is anybody’s guess.
But we also know from the financial crisis that entities too big to fail, which presumably include debt-issuing sovereign nations, won’t be allowed to default. The consequences are too dire. Leaders of the European Union have already said that Greece’s credit will somehow be salvaged, even though they’ve been conspicuously silent about how a Greek rescue will work.
,,,
Spain is too big to fail not Greece.
But fail they will.
PS :- My bet is on China. Traditionally, lenders take it on the chin never lendees (=borrowers.) Maybe this time is different. LOL
Oh great the credit default swap Casino games are threatening us
again . How about coming up with a new insurance game issuing new insurance on credit default swaps . You would bet on the credit default swap needing a bail out or not .
Dumb prediction of the day:
1) The financial crisis has been very, very good to Megabank, Inc so far.
2) Megabank, Inc holds sway with U.S. politicians.
Ergo, I predict lots more banking crises going forward over the next 100 years, with at least the same frequency as during the past 50 years.
I don’t think it’s only Banking PB ,I think its also BIG BUSINESS Corporation monopolies ,Global market game playing and financial systems that became distorted in favor of the elite ,or the chosen ones ,as in Unions
that got distorted . If you think about it the lending was to support
the purchasing power of people for industries ,and the ability of Wall Street to make money on these Ponzi -schemes .
BIg Business was not bitching when people were able to get easy credit and purchase a bunch of junk by means of easy credit or equity loans as
unsustainable as it was as the means to create purchasing power .
Who can say that keeping these systems in tact as is isn’t going to
set the stage for greater evil or crashes and more pain and
suffering and more taking of personal freedoms of the US people ,not to mention debt by bailouts to gamblers ,or create a even greater Black Swan event . Now they got the American people conned that keeping these
systems in tack are good for them and represent their freedoms .Keep the insurance monopolies in tack because reform will be taking your freedoms from you . God these Conn artist are good .
From Yesterday (Professor Bear):
One of the things that struck me on our visit last night was the degree to which the Happiest Place on Earth was humming. They seem to have figured out the how to keep the Magic of the Kingdom alive during this nastiest of post-WWII downturns.
Its called “cheap annual passes”. Disney sells special annual passes to So Cal residents that are blocked out during the busier periods. They cost as little as $169 and can be purchased with interest free 12 month financing.
Been there / done that. This is known in economics as “price discrimination.”
Some people think that Disney is doing this on purpose to redirect the big spenders to visit Orlando instead. Disneyland has now become a year round cattle car, to the point where its actually less crowded during the summer and other “high season” periods when the local APs are blocked out. While Disney has not published official numbers it is rumored that there are about 1 million Disneyland Annual Passholders, where the lions share are the restricted SoCal passes.
FYI, I’ve been told that the best day to go to Disneyland is Super Bowl Sunday because there is hardly anyone there.
We went to Disney World the day after the Super Bowl. It wasn’t crazy busy but was still pretty full. I mistakenly thought it would be pretty empty. I hadn’t considered all the Saints fans coming over from Miami that would show up wanting to see Drew Brees. Apparently the Super Bowl MVP is contractually obligated to go to Disney World the day after.
If the weather is good there is no such a thing as an “empty day” at Disneyland anymore.
Google-up “disneyland attendance” and you’ll get to see some neat info.
“They cost as little as $169 and can be purchased with interest free 12 month financing.”
You need financing for $169, you’ve got problems. Even $169 x 4 for a family is a silly level to finance.
(However, with interest-free for twelve months, I can see doing it and paying one $169 piece a month.)
The trick worked, they boosted AP sales from 600,000 to 1 million per year.
did you really say “as little as” and $169 in the same sentence? Last time I went to Disneyland, it was free. I still felt ripped off.
There are many wonderful amenities to California living, but the nagging fear that your child might become some violent sexual predator’s next victim is not one of them.
THE CHELSEA KING CASE
It can, and does, happen here
Community’s psyche dealt yet another blow
By John Wilkens, UNION-TRIBUNE STAFF WRITER
Sunday, March 7, 2010 at 12:04 a.m.
- Thousands of mourners gathered at St. Michael Catholic Church in Poway on Tuesday after Chelsea King’s body was found.
- Jack Kuramoto, walking in Rancho Bernardo Community Park, said the attack on Chelsea King did not surprise him much.
- Jill Leff took her dog, Beethoven, for a walk in the Rancho Bernardo park near where Chelsea King’s body was discovered last week.
Whenever a child is ambushed and killed by a stranger in San Diego County — a dozen horrific cases in the past 15 years — people commonly say, “We never thought it would happen here.”
This time was different.
In the days after Chelsea King went missing, thousands of people from as far as Oregon streamed into the volunteer search center in Rancho Bernardo.
Many clung to the “not here” idea. But equally prevalent were people like Sherri Glidden of Sabre Springs, a housewife and mother of two.
“It could happen anywhere,” she said.
…
MISSING CHILDREN
Children in San Diego County who disappeared and were never found or later found killed:
FOUND DEAD
Jan. 3, 1960: Mary Lou Olson, 10, was last seen headed for a drugstore in National City. Her killer was never found.
Sept. 28, 1974: Patricia Lee Kuzara, 7, disappeared walking home from her baby sitter’s house in Poway. Killer not found.
Feb. 17, 1975: Tammy Suzanne Johnson, 11, was kidnapped off a Carlsbad street while walking with her 8-year-old brother and a friend. Killer not found.
July 17, 1976: David Clinton Hobbs, 14, of Golden Hill failed to return home from a trip to the store.
Aug. 14, 1976: Aleta Sue Grosenbach, 9, of Kankakee, Ill., went out to buy a newspaper while visiting her grandmother in Bird Rock and never returned. Killer not found.
Sept. 25, 1976: Donald Whaley, 12, of El Cajon was last seen telling his sister he was going to visit his girlfriend.
Feb. 6, 1977: Jose Luis Ramirez, 6, of Golden Hill was reported missing. A convicted molester pleaded guilty.
July 5, 1978: John Mayeski and Michael Bauer, both 16, were kidnapped from the parking lot of a fast-food restaurant. Robert Alton Harris was executed for the crime.
April 10, 1986: Rickieann Blake, 14, was last seen in her home in Chula Vista. Killer sentenced to death.
Aug. 5, 1988: Charitie Angelique Careins, 7, didn’t return home from visiting a friend near the Campland park in Pacific Beach. Killer not found.
Dec. 16, 1989: Leticia Hernandez, 7, disappeared while playing in front of her home in Oceanside. No arrests made.
June 19, 1991: Laura Arroyo, 9, of Chula Vista ran to answer her front door and disappeared. Killer sentenced to death.
Oct. 3, 1991: Amanda Leigh Gaeke, 9, vanished while riding her bike near her home in North Park. David Allan Webb sentenced to life in prison.
Mar. 27, 1993: Charles Keever, 13, and Jonathan Sellers, 9, were last seen riding their bikes in Imperial Beach. Killer convicted.
Feb. 2, 2002: Danielle van Dam, 7, was taken from her Sabre Springs bedroom. A neighbor was sentenced to death.
Feb. 25, 2010: Chelsea King, 17, never came home from an after-school run at Rancho Bernardo Community Park. Suspect charged.
STILL MISSING
July 15, 1991: Rasheeyda Wilson, 9, was last seen playing outside her San Diego residence hotel.
April 25, 2002: Jahi Turner, 2, of South Park was reported missing by his stepfather from a playground in Balboa Park.
Feb. 13, 2009: Amber Dubois, 14, disappeared while walking to Escondido High School.
Compiled by senior research librarian Michelle Gilchrist from U-T archives.
Online: For more about each case, go to uniontrib dot com/missing
There was a web link on AOL or Yahoo I think about female predators going after boys from age 11 to 15. Some of those were the famous (or infamous) ones such as the woman who gave birth and served several years of jail then married the younger boy/man who impregnated her.
A relative of mine sent me an e-mail to me and others that she knows a woman who has been arrested for sending a nude picture of herself to a boy under the age of consent. However the boy could have lied and told her he was eighteen - who knows?
What’s going on with these people who become predators? Why do they go after people below the age of consent? Why do they kill? Is it because the laws are too lenient? I insist that any DNA evidence connecting any death to a predator should end up with that predator EXECUTED. As for those who leave their victims alive (and able to recover) they should be locked up in jail for at least 30 years WITHOUT parole. For those who send pictures to others over cell phones or internet it will be very hard to prove that they were aware the recipient was below the age of consent.
Is this an epidemic? What’s going on in America? Has this been happening all along, only to be reported more by the MSM?
I heard a story from a woman raised in LA during the 40s. It was common place for teenage girls to be found dead along railroad tracks and ravines, and the public pretty much shrugged and assumed they were “bad girls” and had put themselves in harms way. Those days you just didn’t talk about molestation or rapes, but it doesn’t mean they weren’t as common as today.
That has been my assumption — that is, the incidence of these horrible crimes has not necessarily changed so much as society’s willingness to discuss them honestly and openly. Perhaps we are actually making progress, though I still wish we could figure out a better way to collectively protect children from monsters.
A move away from blaming the victims and focusing a laser beam on perpetrators seems like a step in the right direction. Now if we could just figure out how to stop them before they act.
Michael Stetz
Missing kids a sad fact of life in county
By Michael Stetz, UNION-TRIBUNE COLUMNIST
Sunday, March 7, 2010 at 12:26 a.m.
The Laura Recovery Center tries to find missing kids. Sadly, they’ve been to our county too many times.
They took part in the recent search for 17-year-old Chelsea King. They came last year to look for 14-year-old Amber Dubois of Escondido. In 2002, they searched for 7-year-old Danielle van Dam, missing from Sabre Springs. Later that same year, they helped in the effort to find 2-year-old Jahi Turner of San Diego.
The endings haven’t been the storybook kind.
A body believed to be Chelsea’s was found by law enforcement authorities on Tuesday. Amber is still missing, nearly 13 months after her disappearance. Danielle’s body was found on Feb. 27, 2002, in the East County backcountry four weeks after she had been gone missing.
Jahi, last seen on April 25, 2002, on a playground in Balboa Park, remains missing.
“Unfortunately, your community, like others, is not short of these monsters,” said Bob Smither, co-founder of the Texas-based organization, speaking of the criminals who do such acts. “But you’re also not short of volunteers who want to help.”
In the case of Chelsea, 6,000 people searched for the Poway High School senior who went missing Feb. 25 near Lake Hodges after going for a run.
“The community wanted their little girl,” said Bob Walcutt, executive director of the Laura Recovery Center.
It turned out the community’s worst fears were realized. Chelsea had been raped and killed. A convicted sex offender, John Gardner III, 30, has been charged in her death.
It’s not unusual to have people rally in such large numbers, Walcutt said. They’re angry. They feel powerless.
Terrible people are doing terrible things, and the terrible news comes fast and furious these days.
“They don’t like to sit on the sidelines, particularly when a child is involved,” he said.
…
Now if we could just figure out how to stop them before they act.
In 2000, John Gardiner, the chief suspect in the Chelsea King murder case, beat and raped a 13 year old girl. He served about five years for that offense. The attack was an open-and-shut case. Had he been speedily tried and hanged, which is what guys like him - violent sexual predators - deserve, one and probably more young women would still be alive today.
“Is this an epidemic? What’s going on in America? Has this been happening all along, only to be reported more by the MSM?”
Yeah, go to crimelibrary.com and look up historical killers, and it’s quite evident that this is something that has been happening all along. Sometimes overlooked, and sometimes excused (nobility vs. peasants).
It’s tragic, but the rate of “stranger” incidents has actually been dropping over the last several decades, so our perception of it as a growing (not shrinking) problem is incorrect.
I hope you are right - that these incidences are shrinking.
I personally don’t perceive it as a growing problem. But I do perceive it as a problem I would like to see eliminated, similarly to how killer diseases were eradicated in the 20th century. Certainly a society that can send a man to the moon can solve a mundane problem like creating a justice system which more effectively prevents monsters from murdering unsuspecting children?
If there was a point in the unfolding of this grim tale when Chelsea King’s death could have been prevented, it was back in December 2009 when a related “isolated incident” was kept out of MSM stories in order to avoid scaring the community. Perhaps some Used Home Sellers were worried that news of a sexual predator at large would be bad for home sales?
At times when people are at great risk of harm, a little healthy fear can be a good thing. I don’t advocate hiding under the bed, but rather taking rational precautions to avoid making yourself a target. I have been gingerly giving my daughter this message ever since this story broke.
I also find it quite curious how what was classified last December as a “robbery attempt” got recast as an “attempted rape.”
THE CHELSEA KING CASE
Police defend response to December incident
Residents question lack of information on attack
By Kristina Davis, UNION-TRIBUNE STAFF WRITER
Sunday, March 7, 2010 at 1:10 a.m.
A young woman was attacked Dec. 27 on this trail near Moon Song Court and Poblado Road in Rancho Bernardo. John Gardner III, charged with murder in the Chelsea King case, also has been charged with assault with intent to rape in the Dec. 27 attack.
Eduardo Contreras / Union-Tribune
INVESTIGATION TIMELINE
Dec. 27: Jogger attacked. Search offers no leads.
Dec. 28: Detective is assigned to the case; sets up a time to meet with victim.
Dec. 29: Detective meets with victim, determines incident to be a robbery attempt.
Dec. 30: Detective contacts victim to set up meeting for composite sketch.
Dec. 31: Composite artist heads to meet with victim but gets called to a commercial robbery.
Jan. 2: Victim flies back to Colorado.
SOURCE: San Diego Police Department
ALERTS
To sign up for neighborhood crime alerts, go to sandiego dot gov/police and click on Neighborhood e-Watch.
When a 22-year-old college student reported she was tackled by a “football-player big” man along the jogging trails of Lake Hodges on Christmas break, San Diego police determined it was an isolated attack and not something to alarm the community about.
Two months later, authorities say, Poway teenager Chelsea King died at the hands of the same man at the same park, leaving many to wonder whether officers did enough in response to the first incident.
“The police should have done more after the Dec. 27 attack,” said Jimmy Ashker, who lives across the street from the suspect’s mother. “If they had put together a reasonably accurate sketch, and if they had passed it around the neighborhood, put it up on light poles, some of us would have seen it and told them right away who it was. It breaks my heart to think we could have done something to stop him.”
…
Police chiefs and departments have a vested interest in under-reporting crime. It makes them look like they’re on top of things and keeps the public docile.
Apparently, this crime was reported, but perhaps it was underinvestigated. At any rate, the lack of information in the MSM to warn the citizenry that a dangerous criminal was targeting young females in the Rancho Bernardo area apparently culminated in a tragedy. A free press ought to be able to do better than this.
I can see your way of thinking. But the opposite may be true depending on the size of the community. Corrupt police departments are in bed with the bail bond industry to arrest people and then the people get bailed out by the buddies of the cops. I would expect kickbacks from one to the other. Similarly, defense attorneys raise a big ugly scare to people who are worried that a cop may come around and ask questions. A several thousand dollar fee is in store. Also the corrections officers in the prison industry have a vested interest in more jails and more prisoners.
The easiest target is victimless crimes.
I think most large cities have corrupt police departments into illegal activity. It’s the American way.
News of another grim discovery in San Diego County just flashed across the bottom of our TV screen as we watched the Academy Awards show tonight. The details which have emerged thus far offer no hint about what prompted authorities to search around Pala.
It is too early to say whether John Albert Garnder III was the perpetrator against Amber Dubois, but it sounds like they have an airtight case against him in the case of Chelsea King, in the form of damning DNA evidence taken from semen on her clothing.
Despite being in a total funk about these stories, I am heartened by the successful volunteer efforts to find the bodies. Now to figure out how to deal with convicted sex offenders in a manner which deters similar crimes in the future…
The San Diego Union-Tribune
Remains of Amber Dubois found in Pala
Escondido girl missing more than a year; discovery follows that of Chelsea King’s body
By Kristina Davis, UNION-TRIBUNE STAFF WRITER
Originally published March 7, 2010 at 1:35 p.m., updated March 7, 2010 at 4:41 p.m.
The skeletal remains of missing Escondido teenager Amber Dubois have been found more than a year after she vanished while walking to school one morning, authorities announced Sunday.
“The discovery was made in the early morning hours Saturday in a very rugged and remote area of Pala,” said Escondido Police Chief Jim Maher. “Escondido police and sheriff’s homicide detectives were following a lead in the case when they made the discovery.”
The remains, found north of the Pala reservation, were positively identified through dental records Saturday afternoon.
Maher, flanked by Sheriff Bill Gore and FBI Special Agent-in-Charge Keith Slotter, declined to answer any questions at the 5-minute news conference at the Escondido Police Department, citing the ongoing murder investigation. He said the investigation would be a joint effort between the three agencies.
“Any details, no matter how slight, would be inappropriate to reveal at this time,” Maher said.
Amber’s parents, Moe Dubois and Carrie McGonigle, expressed their thanks for the immense search effort.
“The entire community, everybody who helped out with the search effort, and above all our huge volunteer corps, they are the most dedicated people and without them we couldn’t have done anything,” said a tearful Moe Dubois.
Robert Smith, Chairman of the Pala Indian Band, said that he was unaware of the investigation and that he first heard about it on the news.
“Our prayers go out to the family,” he said.
The discovery comes just days after the body of 17-year-old Poway girl Chelsea King was found buried in a shallow grave along the shores of Lake Hodges.
Investigators have been working to determine if John Albert Gardner III, a 30-year-old registered sex offender who was arrested in Chelsea’s slaying, may have also been connected to Amber’s disappearance. Gardner was living about two miles away from the area where Amber vanished.
The discovery ends the painstaking search for Amber that took family members, law enforcement and hundreds of volunteers throughout southern California and into Mexico over the past 13 months.
Reached by phone, Amber’s grandmother Sheila Welch said, “I am a very sad grandmother today.”
Amber was 14 when she disappeared the morning of Feb. 13, 2009, as she was walking to Escondido High School.
Her family said it was unlikely she ran away. She had no extra clothes, and she was excited to purchase a lamb she was going to raise through the school’s agricultural program. The $200 check she carried to school that day has never been cashed, police said.
Instead, authorities have said she most likely got into a vehicle with someone, possibly someone she knew.
Two witnesses who knew Amber saw her walking on North Broadway near the football field with a tall, dark-skinned boy described as “doughy.”
But she, nor the boy, were ever captured on security cameras near the front of the school.
Escondido police, with help from the FBI and other agencies, have spent thousands of hours investigating the case.
Last summer, search dogs from Maine hired by the family apparently traced her scent to the Pala library, but no one there remembered having seen her. Bloodhounds used by the FBI several months later found no hint of her there.
Authorities renewed the search effort again last week, draining a murky pond at Kit Carson Park after receiving a tip that three girls had found a bag with hair around it in the pond in May.
Divers scoured the pond and others combed the banks, but Escondido police concluded Saturday afternoon that no new evidence had been found. They made no mention of the concurrent search happening in Pala.
Investigators have not revealed if they’ve been able to interrogate Gardner regarding Amber’s case since his arrest.
Amber’s father on Saturday likened the ordeal to a hellish, never-ending rollercoaster ride that he just wanted to get off. “We need to have our closure. If she’s somewhere around, we won’t stop until we find her,” he said.
A $100,000 has been offered in the case. Sheriff’s officials declined to say if the reward money would be paid to anyone.
Investigators have said Amber’s disappearance bore many similarities to Chelsea’s.
Chelsea, a senior at Poway High School, vanished Feb. 25 after apparently going for a run in Rancho Bernardo Community Park. She never returned home. Her black BMW was found in the parking lot.
A breathless five-day search in the vicinity ended Tuesday with the discovery of her body.
Gardner, who was arrested at a nearby restaurant, Hernandez Hide-A-Way, on Feb. 28, has been charged with murder in Chelsea’s case, as well as assault with the intent to rape in a separate attack on a 22-year-old jogger Dec. 27.
Authorities identified Gardner from semen on a piece of Chelsea’s clothing that was run through a national DNA database at a state lab last weekend, California Department of Justice said.
My HOLY CRAP! Florida statistic of the day, from today’s Miami Herald, a story on “reverse foreclosures”:
“In a recent survey, 60 percent of Florida condo and homeowner associations reported that half of their units were two months behind in paying maintenance fees.”
BWAHAHAHHAHAHAHHAHAAHAHHAHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH!!!!!!
were two months behind in paying maintenance fees.” ??
Which likely makes the entire complex un-finance able through FHA at least…
Won’t it be lovely when you see big project with brown grass and deferred everything .
Spent the past week in Ontario, California. A little town in the Inland Empire. Recession is in full force here, as well as signs of overbuilding. This town used to be agriculture and transportation (major rail lines pass through as well as an airport), now it appears the economy from 2000-2007 was based upon real estate construction. That work is gone.
My upper (but not high end) hotel is mostly empty, filled with a few long-term guests and the occasional one-day stay. I’d say that occupancy has never exceeded 25% based upon the USA Today count in the halls (I’m up really early), and this weekend has been well below 10%. I just hope the person that checked in above me last night checks out this morning, they sure walk loud. They woke me up at 3.00am, thought it was the fire department knocking and about to barge in the room. Nope, just upstairs neighbor going to the bathroom.
Next to the hotel is an abandoned in mid-construction strip mall/office park/retail center. Comprised of five buildings that have all the exterior architectural treatments but the insides are unfinished. The utilities are partially run (stub ups) but the area is still dirt. There are three rundown, beat up small travel trailers with security spray painted on the sides in big red capital letters. I haven’t seen anyone walking around yet. Next to the abanonded construction is a small plot of farmland.
Driving through the older part of town, many abanonded busnesses. The “rent a rim” tire and wheel center is still in bsuiness, as are the liquor stores. I went over to Ontario Mills (giant mall-type place) and it was packed. I imagine it is always packed. I left without buying anything (what am I going to do with it - the sooner I finish my work here, the earlier I get back home to Mrs. Chile and Mini-chile). Looked like most people weren’t buying anything either, but perception often is wrong in those cases.
Lots of new, nearly empty businesses.
This is the future of America.
Interesting geography site, good visual display of statistics :
after the w-s : floatingsheep.org/2010/02/beer-belly-of-america.html
I was surprised that there are two states with more bars per capita than Wisconsin. Who woulda thunk it?
With Fed, State revenue shortfalls - taxes, especially sewer, water, and property tax increases are my guess for the biggest surprises over next few years with respect to much larger than expected rate/price increases.
To what degree are renters compared to home owners better shielded? I am thinking not much. As a renter, I pay a water bill and LL will simply raise rent to cover the increase in prop taxes.
much larger than expected rate/price increases ??
Plan on it….They will tax in ways that are very broad and in ways that you cannot avoid…Your water/sewer are two excellent examples…DMV fees are another…
When the actual recovery begins years from now the insurance companies will need to recover from their RE losses, and they will have the “lobby-bought blessings” of government; small business will bear the brunt of it.
With Fed, State revenue shortfalls - taxes, especially sewer, water, and property tax increases are my guess for the biggest surprises over next few years with respect to larger than expected rate/price increases.
To what degree are renters compared to home owners better shielded? I am thinking not much. As a renter, I pay a water/sewer bill extra from rent check and LL will simply raise rent to cover the increase in prop taxes.
Added taxes will add to expenses which will add to vacancies as people are forced to double-up.
Additional vacancies will put downward pressure on rents.
This is yet another example of how deflationary forces can cause price increases.
The deflationary economic contraction causes tax revenues to drop. In order to keep the governmental machinery operating taxes have to be raised. Raises taxes raises people’s living expenses.
But declining taxes also force governments to cut back on services. So one ends up paying more in taxes but receiving less in services.
Some people will view this as proof that inflation is running amok, that the dollar buys less governmental services than it used to. And they will be correct, the dollar will buy less governmental services than it used to. But that’s not because there are too many dollars being passed around in the economy, it’s because there are too few dollars being passed around in the economy.
Good explanation, both gov’t and businesses will be searching for that elusive equilibrium between prices and the new normal’s demand level and the process will be painful and not the least bit quick or linear.
Way OT, I spent my Sunday watching prog-rock vids on youtube. Check these guys out (Dream Theater cover)
youtube.com/watch?v=r28LLqyXBKs
ZING!
I’m impressed. I’m not much of a DT fan, but those guys are impressively tight.
No doubt! Not exactly a beginner song.
Way OT, I spent my Sunday watching prog-rock vids on youtube.
Egads, man!
Back away from The Prog.
Whatever you do, don’t watch any Gentle Giant.
British gov health plan controlling costs
Sutent is part of an explosion of treatments that attack cancer at the molecular level, holding the promise of turning intractable malignancies into chronic diseases like diabetes or HIV. Targeted therapies are already extending life — and adding to the cost of end-of-life care, which in the case of Sutent could be on the order of $48,720 a year.
The story of the drug, which took 15 years to get from theory to therapy, shows why such medicines, which have limited periods of effectiveness, are so expensive that some governments resist paying for them. On the advice of the British National Institute for Health and Clinical Excellence, the U.K. National Health Service refused for three years to buy Sutent for its patients. The price, the institute decided in 2006, was simply too high for the amount of time it bought.
“We are all worried that it’s not sustainable,” said Demetri, 53, director of the Ludwig Center at the Harvard University-affiliated Dana-Farber Cancer Institute in Boston, in an interview. “Ultimately, our country may say, ‘OK, we can have these expensive cancer drugs or we can have vaccines for our kids — what do you want?’”
This is the ideal system, a system that focuses on cost to benefit ratios. If you have money and want a private insurance supplement more power to you.
I’ve been looking into a substance called MMS since yesterday, watching you tube videos on it. Just wonder if some of you might know about it and what your opinions might be.
Economic View
Mom, Apple Pie and Mortgages
By ROBERT J. SHILLER
Published: March 5, 2010
FOR decades, the federal government has subsidized housing — particularly owner-occupied housing. This has been especially true during the continuing financial crisis, with Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and the Federal Housing Administration propping up the housing market by issuing guarantees for investors on most new mortgages.
But what is the long-term justification for putting taxpayers on the line to subsidize homeownership? Is this nothing more than a sacred cow in American society — a political necessity because so many voters own homes and are mindful of their resale value?
In fact, there is much more to the history of subsidizing housing. While the crisis in the housing market shows that our current approach is far from perfect, there is a certain wisdom behind it, related not only to economic stimulus but also to the preservation of a sense of national identity. It’s important to remember this as we consider re-engineering our institutions as the crisis ebbs.
Federal subsidies for housing essentially began in the Great Depression with, among other things, the creation of the F.H.A. in 1934 and Fannie Mae in 1938. It all started for a simple reason: more than a third of all the unemployed were identified, directly or indirectly, with the building trades. At the time, there seemed to be no way to reduce unemployment without stimulating housing, and much the same is true today.
But consider what will happen once the economy is again operating at full capacity. Basic economics tells us that when Americans, over all, spend more on housing, they must ultimately spend less on something else. Why should housing consumption be better than other consumption, or investments that people might choose?
This time, the best answer isn’t found in traditional economics but rather in American culture: a long-standing feeling that owning homes in healthy communities is connected to individual liberties that embody our national identity. Historically, homeownership has been associated with freedom, while renting — often in tenements or mill villages — has been linked to the oppression of a landlord.
In his classic 1985 book, “Crabgrass Frontier,” Kenneth T. Jackson of Columbia University delineated the complex train of thought that over the last two centuries has produced the American belief that homeownership encourages pride and good citizenship and, ultimately, preservation of liberty. These attitudes are enduring.
Back in 1899, in “The Theory of the Leisure Class,” Thorstein Veblen described homeownership, particularly of large and expensive dwellings, as “conspicuous consumption.” By that, he meant that it was undertaken substantially for the purpose of impressing others by showing the amount of money one can afford to waste on space one doesn’t need.
What is specifically American here — though it’s increasingly seen in other countries, too — may be the modern sense of equal citizenship, engendered by the illusion that we can sustain conspicuous housing consumption even among a majority of the people.
In short, this all has a great deal to do with culture, and little to do with financial wisdom. After all, financial theory suggests that people should not own their own homes, at least not in the way that many do today. A cardinal tenet is that people should diversify — meaning they shouldn’t put nearly all of their financial eggs in one basket, which is what homeownership now means for so many people.
American mortgage institutions encourage people to take a leveraged position in the real estate market, which is quite risky because home prices can and do decline, as we have learned so painfully. Leverage a risky investment 10 to 1 and you can expect trouble — and we have plenty of it today. More than 16 million homeowners owe more on their mortgages than their homes are worth, according to Mark Zandi of Economy.com.
If we choose to keep subsidizing individual homeownership, we must also commit to adding safeguards so that homeowners are less financially vulnerable. Of course, that will require some creative finance.
…
Enough with the creative finance, already!
Professor Bear’s even better idea: Stop subsidizing homeownership. Just because Shiller and an army of others in the REIC make a good living in part thanks to the heavy flow of subsidies into real estate, doesn’t mean subsidizing one industry to the exclusion of all others is a good idea. In fact, I would argue the history of real estate subsidies is bearing a very bitter fruit at the moment, in the forms of a serious mismatch of the American housing supply to housing needs (too many, too big, too expensive), and the collapse of the largest credit bubble in history.
The notion that more subsidies, yet another “hair of the dog hangover cure,” will cure the problem of millions of underwater American home owners who got stucco and lost their financial freedom, is particularly ridiculous.
‘Back in 1899, in “The Theory of the Leisure Class,” Thorstein Veblen described homeownership, particularly of large and expensive dwellings, as “conspicuous consumption.” By that, he meant that it was undertaken substantially for the purpose of impressing others by showing the amount of money one can afford to waste on space one doesn’t need.’
Veblen is one of my heroes. It is great to read that identified the McMansion craze over a century ago. No wonder it seems hard wired into the American psyche. I am thinking we on the HBB have done our share to end this craze.
My hero too.
Lawd, he was a monster - economics, finance, sociology, psychology, pop culture, music, art - all in one package!
Witty mo-fo too. Could be a rapper today.
I’ll just point out that he was the smartest person that Chicago never gave tenure to.
Speaking of rap, I can’t remember if you were around when I posted this one a few weeks back…
But consider what will happen once the economy is again operating at full capacity. Basic economics tells us that when Americans, over all, spend more on housing, they must ultimately spend less on something else. Why should housing consumption be better than other consumption, or investments that people might choose?
This time, the best answer isn’t found in traditional economics but rather in American culture: a long-standing feeling that owning homes in healthy communities is connected to individual liberties that embody our national identity. Historically, homeownership has been associated with freedom, while renting — often in tenements or mill villages — has been linked to the oppression of a landlord.
BS BS BS- The answer is found in traditional economics.
1. We can’t outsource the building of houses, many of the building materials are still made in the US as well.
2. When people buy a bigger house they buy furniture to fill it. Once again the US has some furniture manufacturing.
3. Buying a house is viewed as an investment. So the thought that if they didn’t spend money on housing they would spend it on something else is wrong. Many would just sock it away in the bank or some conservative investment.
4. Tax revenue from rising home sales spurs government spending. These jobs also are not outsourced.
5. The reality is that technology and foreign labor destroyed our manufacturing jobs. The gov hid the pain of this reality by stimulating bubbles that created US jobs.
I have to wonder how on top of the rent/ownership picture academic economists are at this point. In our hood, which was probably almost all owner-occupied housing circa 2000, more than half the households I know who moved here since 2005 are renter households. So far as I can tell, the same homes which were owner-occupied pre-2005 became rentals with no structural modification. Moreover, home prices have not dropped as a result of this development, but rather because the private U.S. mortgage finance sector collapsed when the housing bubble popped.
The suggestion to “rethink the idea of renting” makes Shiller seem a bit late to the party.
…we should rethink the idea of renting, which could be a viable option for many more Americans and needn’t endanger the traditional values of individual liberty and good citizenship.
Switzerland, for example, is a country with strong patriotism, a fighting spirit of national defense, a commitment to freedom and tolerance, and a low crime rate. Yet its homeownership rate is just 34.6 percent, versus 66.2 percent for the United States, according to the two countries’ 2000 censuses.
Swiss national identity doesn’t depend on homeownership. Instead, Riccarda Torriani, a historian at the Swiss Federal Department of Foreign Affairs, links the country’s sense of identity to such things as its system of direct democracy, which enforces popular participation in government; the idea that its citizens are frontier people (living in or near the rugged Alps); and a history of collective courage in defense of freedom, even when outnumbered.
BUT America isn’t Switzerland. Our values and habits of thought are very different. Moreover, our homes are largely scattered in vast suburbs, often with distinct features. If many of these homes needed to be converted to rental units, home prices might well drop.
…
…we should rethink the idea of renting, which could be a viable option for many more Americans and needn’t endanger the traditional values of individual liberty and good citizenship.
Yep this will be the MSM message over the next couple of decades along with
1. We should rethink the idea of poverty, it is good for Americans to experience poverty.
2. We should rethink the idea of democracy, we just need to let the rich guide us.
3. We shold rethink the idea of upward mobility, and just accept serfdom (they will call serfdom somthing with a patriotic sound like being a patriot soldier for jesus)
Don’t knock progress. About the time when 90%+ of Americans start rethinking the idea of renting is about when I am likely to start rethinking the idea of home ownership.
HBBers, I may be relocated to Colorado Springs. Does anyone know the market, are there any decent builders (yeah I know that is tough to find) and are they (builders and homeloaners) still asking too much? Are rentals priced well? I will be going there in a few weeks and want to know my options. I want a nice part of town. Thanks in advance!
I know someone who lives in Colorado Springs and says it’s a great place to live and its beautiful . They have a big military base close to the central city . I guess the weather doesn’t get as extreme as in some parts of Colorado . I really don’t know much more because I have never been there . You might get more response if you post your post earlier in the day . I do think the cost of living might be cheaper than a lot of places ,but not the cheapest .
2 truths, 1 lie:
A. My pug was once attacked by a ferret in Hoboken
B. I stuff my pants with ingots
C. I am under contract to buy a house in Florida
Good luck, Muggy! Let us know if your pug recovers
Front of the pants to make you “feel” good, or back up there where the sun don’t shine?!? (= it’s called a prostate for a reason!)
Either way, good luck on the house!
“Good luck, Muggy!”
I’m cautiously optimistic. I’m give more details later. Perhaps I’ll email Ben at some point and write up a guess post.
WOW, thems is serious typer’os. Waaaaayyyy too much wine.
I hope you only drank after the contract was signed!
House you like at price you can afford = big WIN. I’m rooting for this process to go as smoothly as possible!
(A friend just had closing delayed for a week because the appraiser said, “We can’t approve this loan– there’s holes in the wall!” So he went in with some spackle…)
Some commentators on high are beginning to point out the need to end too-big-to-fail as a condition for restoring fully functional private asset markets. But how would this even be possible, given the precedent of chucking market discipline in favor of bailing out everything that looked too big to fail in Fall 2008? Why would markets rationally expect that this exact same scenario would not play out the same way in a sufficiently dire future crisis? Smart financial engineers working at Megabank, Inc are probably already planting the seeds for the next one as I type.
Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond President Calls for Real Regulatory Reform
Remarks by Jeffrey Lacker, President, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond at the Institute of International Bankers, Annual Washington Conference Washington, D.C.
Thank you for the opportunity to speak with you this morning. This could not be a more propitious time to bring together senior policy makers and financial industry leaders. As we speak, ambitious changes to the U.S. regulatory and supervisory regime are under consideration in the halls of Congress. My subject this morning will be the reform of the U.S. financial regulatory system, and while much has been written on this vast subject, there is a risk that these laudable efforts get bogged down in less important issues, and we might miss the opportunity for real regulatory reform.
…
To summarize, a healthy, well-functioning financial system requires a restoration of market discipline, and that will be impossible without clear boundaries on the federal financial safety net. True, regulation and supervision needs strengthening, and that process is well underway at the Federal Reserve and elsewhere. But merely expanding the scope of regulation to chase those firms that extract implicit guarantees by engaging in maturity transformation would be an interminable journey with yet more financial instability in its wake. Arresting the continual expansion of the implicit safety net will in turn require changing what people believe about the likelihood of government support in the event of a future crisis. Having experienced two years of dramatic safety net expansion, reconditioning beliefs will be a difficult process. It will require writing clear rules that constrain the use of public funds. But it also will require that the rules be confirmed by future behavior, and this will be the greatest challenge to achieving real financial reform.
…
In response to the above article .
The fact that they are trying to put in built in taxpayer funded safety nets for this industry is a joke . Unregulated entities no doubt will be able to go to this fountain of bail out money .Also a built in system like that would eliminate transparency of the bail-outs .
I always thought that FDIC system for regulated banks was a good idea because you were talking about keeping the banks from having a run on them and ensure a basic banking system for everyday functions of the public .
The Casino should be shut down or limited ,but certainly not propped up by safety nets ,especially involving investment houses . The conflict of interest between investment and lending and the function of a investment house and one of lenders should be separate as in Glass-Steagal . Reserve requirements should be raised ,and that would include Insurance Companies . Leverage ability should be lowered
industry wide . Many of the Casino games just need to be outlawed
or totally reformed .
Strong laws against practices would do more good than having a
regulatory agency that will fail to regulate or be bias toward the industries wishes .
Did you guys see this?
http://www.nytimes.com/2010/03/08/business/08short.html
Govn’t program to encourage short sales. Sounds much better than the HAMP.
How about vacate the property or go to jail?