March 30, 2010

The Artful Dodger In The Mix

The Mercury News reports from California. “Central Valley real estate agent Donny Piwowarski last year sold his four-bedroom, 3,500-square-foot house on a half-acre in Tracy for $387,000 — about half of what he paid for it in 2005. Under California tax law, Piwowarski owes tens of thousands of dollars in state income tax on the nearly $400,000 in mortgage debt that was ‘canceled’ when he sold his house for less than what he owed. ‘I paid a pretty penny, $765,000, for that house,’ he said. ‘Now I have nearly $400,000 in canceled debt sitting out there that ultimately I’m going to be taxed on by California” if the law doesn’t change.”

“Piwowarski was forced to short-sell his house when he could no longer afford the payments because his income had dwindled, and he and his wife were separating. If California law doesn’t change to mirror the federal rules, he said, he’d have to pay his huge tax bill in installments ‘for the rest of my life.’ ‘It would financially wreck me,’ he said.”

The Fresno Bee. “The number of building permits for new houses issued so far this year in the Fresno area is at its lowest level in years. Through February, about 153 permits were issued for new houses in the Fresno market, the California Building Industry Association reports. That’s a far cry from the region’s heyday a few years ago.”

“Home starts this year are off nearly 40% from early 2009, and Michael Prandini, CEO of the Building Industry Association of Fresno and Madera Counties is not sure why. ‘Maybe people are holding off or haven’t decided to jump in for a federal tax credit,’ Prandini said.”

The Pasadena Star News. ” California’s housing market may be headed for a slight recovery - but it’s not going to happen quickly, according to one industy expert. Michael Carney, a professor of finance and real estate at Cal Poly Pomona, said that Southern California home sales and prices may be stabilizing, but ‘I don’t think it’s going to continue. If it does continue, I think it’s going to be very slow.’”

“‘In California, you’ve got to look at the composition of the labor force,’ said John Silvia, considered one of the top 10 forecasters in the country - so named by Bloomberg - (and) the managing director and chief economist at Wells Fargo and Co. ‘It’s heavily weighted in construction. It’s not surprising the unemployment rate is as high as it and that it’s not turning around.’”

“He predicts unemployment in this area will stay above 9 percent through 2010 at least. His presentation indicated that California’s housing recovery is ’subpar compared to prior cycles’ and that improvement is relative. He doesn’t think last quarter’s increase in value and activity refutes that. He says there’s no doubt that those improvements were biased by government incentives and other factors, and we’ll be back at 1 percent increases when those influences end.”

“‘In my opinion, if there is a change, I think it’s going to get worse,’ said Carney. ‘I certainly don’t see any huge recovery. The financing is not coming back. A lot of foreclosures are in the wings. If unemployment stays the same, surely we’ll see more defaults and foreclosures.’”

The Desert Sun. “The Coachella Valley has begun its economic recovery, though job growth isn’t expected until the end of the year, The Desert Sun’s latest economic index report shows. The first quarter of the year should boast an 86.7 — the best rating since the middle of 2008, said economist Esmael Adibi, director of Chapman University’s A. Gary Anderson Center for Economic Research, who compiles the index. ‘It’s a big jump,’ he said, but it’s still 13.3 points from 100 — when job creation begins. ‘It means we’re still going to lose jobs, but at a slower rate.’”

“The streets of El Paseo in Palm Desert were filled with shoppers as Fashion Week was in full force. Downtown Palm Springs is bustling all week long. Realtors say they’re getting calls from investors who live in the valley or afar about what they can do as prospectors of distressed real estate. One Oregon investor who checked into a Courtyard hotel in the Palm Springs area, identifying herself only as Judy, said she spent a few days here while traveling to a short-sale property she bought in Arizona.”

“‘We got it on the first bid,’ she said, mostly because she agreed to let the sellers lease back the home. ‘It’s sad this is happening, but it was nice to get a good deal on the house,’ she said. ‘We let the sellers stay because we know what it feels like: We lost a home in Colorado in the recession of 1988.’”

“Chris Kasivalis, an owner of Yellow Basket, said hamburger platters have been flying out the door in recent weeks. ‘Things have really picked up,’ he said. But so have the legal notices for foreclosure activity. One day last week alone, listings for home and commercial property in some stage of foreclosure totaled $64.9 million.”

“Economists say ongoing foreclosure activity in 2010 is the other shoe that continues to drop. The shadow inventory is described as the artful dodger in the mix, so much so local real estate experts are checking tax records to try to predict how many properties are out there. Economists are also concerned about what will happen when the stimulus programs run out — and whether businesses will make hiring decisions based on emerging government policies.”

“‘There’s so much happening on the national level,’ Adibi said, that another element has been added to the predictability factor.”

“Irene Pilien, manager of Sparky’s Self Storage, has the pulse on tough times. She sees it in the faces of customers who store their valuables at Sparky’s Self Storage in Thousand Palms. Some have lost their homes, scaled back businesses or furnished rental properties purchased when houses could be had for zero interest and, by some accounts, 53 people a day clocked into the Coachella Valley.”

“Pilien and others say longstanding customers are checking out because they’re leaving the area all together, or are roving from spot to spot to capitalize on prices. Others can no longer afford the rent at any price. ‘It’s sad,’ she said. ‘One client told me he had to put all his stuff in the living room.’”

The Carmel Valley News. “As Solana Beach struggles to make up for a $600,000 loss in sales-tax revenue from two fiscal years ago, a more specific look reveals no area has been hit harder in generating business than the Cedros Avenue Design district. According to city financial documents, Cedros Avenue generated $126,947 in sales-tax revenue in the third quarter of 2006. In the same time period of 2009, it generated $75,685. The design-oriented shopping district includes, high-end jewelry and furniture stores, cafes and the Belly-up Tavern, among other establishments.”

“‘There’s a lot of discretionary spending there,’ said City Manager David Ott. ‘That’s what goes down in a recession.’”

The San Diego Reader. “For the past six years, a huge construction hole in the lower Cortez neighborhood has remained a collection of rusty rebar, weeds and dirt, and wooden shoring. Construction began on the project, a 74-unit condo development called the Atmosphere, with excavation for a three-level parking garage. But the project ran into problems. According to Centre City Development Corporation documents, ‘The owner(s) tried for several years to recommence construction but were unsuccessful, and the building permits expired.’”

“The developer’s website described the Atmosphere as ‘a sophisticated, spacious, creative urban living experience, perfectly positioned in the Heart of Downtown.’ As for the hole in the ground, which is 22 feet deep in places, As new construction may not begin ‘for a period of up to three or more years,’ Flores Lund Consultants recommended that the site ‘be backfilled and capped with asphalt.’”

The Press Telegram.”Downtown-based real estate firm DOMA Properties reported about $98 million in sales in 2009, said president Scott Hamilton. Unlike previous years when new home sales accounted for three times more than resales, DOMA in 2009 made half its sales in resales, Hamilton said. DOMA picked up more foreclosure and short sale accounts through Bank of America, Wells Fargo and several management companies.”

“Hamilton said DOMA also reported solid numbers in new home sales in 2009, thanks in large part to an aggressive sales strategy that enabled DOMA to quickly sell more than 300 units on an Orange County development. By putting together sales events, DOMA was able to sell 335 of Stadium Lofts’ 390-unit condominiums developed in Anaheim A ‘Final 40 EVENT’ led to a sold-out project.”

“If a prospective buyer is interested in a two-bedroom, two-bathroom home but can only afford to pay $190,000, DOMA keeps that information and alerts them of homes that come on the market that fit their needs and price point. ‘When prices actually came to a point where people were thinking that this is a really good value and now is the time to jump, they jumped,’ he said.”

“Hamilton said he’s hoping for slow and steady growth in the market by 2012, adding that he’s seeing prices stabilize in Long Beach. ‘As long as interest rates stay low, I think we’ll probably start to see a little bit of upwards pressure on prices,’ he said. ‘We’re already seeing anywhere from 10 to 20 offers on almost every home.’”

The Signal. “Just 140 single-family homes in the Santa Clarita Valley changed hands last month, a report stated. That’s 16 percent lower than last year’s 167 sales. There just aren’t a lot of homes available to be sold, said Jim Link, CEO of the Southland Regional Association of Realtors.”

“However, the median price of single-family homes sold in February was up half a percent from a year ago to $410,000. Prices for condominiums also jumped. Still, the low inventory makes an already sluggish month even slower for Realtors, Link said.”

“Link said two things are holding down the inventory: First, foreclosure rates are down. Second, on the other end of the spectrum, not a lot of home owners want to put a ‘For Sale’ sign on their lawn when home prices are still so much lower than they were before the Great Recession hit, Link said. ‘There’s intense competition for any property under $500,000,’ Link said in a statement. ‘Competition has grown more fierce as the inventory dries up.’”

From KPBS. “For the second year in a row, the County Assessor is predicting San Diego will collect less in property taxes because of the housing crash. ‘I hauled all these rocks from the mountain over there when I came home from work every night and every weekend,’ 82-year-old Frank Taylor says as he points to the retaining wall that surrounds his yard and describes how he built it rock by rock. In fact, nearly everything in this yard was built by Frank, a retired Sears repairman. He and his wife Cathy bought this house in 1962 for $13,000. ‘Of course I was only making $75 to $80 a week, so even then you wonder how you’re going to pay for it,’ Taylor says.”

“In the past four decades, the Taylors’ house has increased by more than 30 times in value. ‘I’ve heard that these houses around here go for $400,000. Can you imagine a house selling for $400,000,’ Taylor says.”

The Victor Valley Daily Press. “Realtors expect the number of short sale houses to rise in the Victor Valley over the next year. Meanwhile, they hope for a reduction in the confusion over short sales among buyers and sellers. But for some sellers, it may not be easy, said Don Jensen, a Realtor in Hesperia who routinely deals with short sales. Homeowners who want to make a short sell should first determine whether they have a recourse loan or non-recourse loan. Recourse loans give lenders more leeway in recovering the full loan amount, while the debt can be fully forgiven under non-recourse loan.”

“‘Under a non-recourse format it may give some relief,’ Jensen said. ‘It could be better than just walking away.’”

“Poor training and inexperience in making high-risk construction loans caused High Desert Federal Credit Union to fail, an internal audit by the National Credit Union Administration determined. ‘HDFCU failed primarily due to a high concentration of real estate construction loans coupled with the dramatic decline in nationwide real estate values caused by the credit crisis,’ the report stated, noting that the credit union grew its construction lending exposure to over 60 percent in 2005, 2006 and 2007.”

“High Desert FCU went into NCUA conservatorship in 2008, and was taken the following year by Alaska USA Federal Credit Union. The report noted that underwriting and monitoring of many of the construction loans made by High Desert FCU did not meet NCUA guidelines. Developers often failed to meet income and equity requirements, and sometimes made loans to non-members.”

The Los Angeles Business Journal. “It was a Wednesday afternoon in early December, and FirstFed executives, jet-lagged from cross-country flights, had descended on Washington, D.C., to plead for the survival of one of California’s oldest financial institutions. The holding company for First Federal Bank of California, a savings and loan with branches across Los Angeles, was up against the wall. Saddled with toxic adjustable rate mortgages, the thrift had endured more than a half-billion dollars in losses since the collapse of the housing market.”

“FirstFed’s failure seemed inevitable, but executives requested the emergency meeting with the FDIC and Office of Thrift Supervision to beg for a stay. The FirstFed contingent left that afternoon confident. They had nailed the presentation. Two weeks and two days later, regulators closed FirstFed.”

“The story of FirstFed’s decline and fall is inextricably linked with Babette Heimbuch, the thrift’s brash chief executive. During her tenure, she presided over the most aggressive expansion in the bank’s 80-year history. A year after her arrival, FirstFed began making adjustable rate mortgage loans, and within a few years they constituted 90 percent of its portfolio. The thrift specialized in option adjustable-rate mortgage loans, or option ARMs for short, which give borrowers choice in how much to pay each month.”

“New competitors, such as EMC Mortgage Corp., flooded into the option ARM market, given the willingness of investment banks to buy the loans, then bundle and sell them as mortgage-backed securities. The thrift felt it had little choice but to try to compete to protect its bread-and-butter loan business.”

“In an interview in June, Heimbuch admitted FirstFed began extending loans to borrowers with little or no documentation of income or assets. It even wrote increasingly popular negative amortization loans, in which a borrower’s monthly payments did not even cover the interest and the loan balance would rise. She thought the thrift could make it work. ‘In 2005, we started trying to compete, but we tried to compete smarter,’ she said. ‘We tried to do a better underwriting job. We didn’t do subprime loans.’”

“That year, FirstFed originated roughly $3 billion in option ARMs, nearly increasing by half the size of its mortgage loan portfolio to more than $9 billion. Quickly, though, executives began to get nervous, fearing that easy Wall Street money was creating a bubble in the housing market. In particular, they were dumbfounded by the risky loans EMC was willing to make. Then, executives discovered that EMC was owned by Bear Stearns, the investment banking giant that would suffer a spectacular collapse within a few years.”

“‘Oh, man,’ Chief Operating Officer James Giraldin said to Heimbuch one day in late 2005, ‘this is over.’”

The Associated Press. “The government’s bold new plan to stem the foreclosure crisis aims to succeed where previous efforts have fallen flat. Diana Farrell, a White House economic adviser, acknowledged the plan won’t prevent many of the expected 10 to 12 million foreclosures expected over the next three years. Doing so, she said, ‘wouldn’t be fair, it would be too expensive and we probably wouldn’t succeed in any case, because many people got into homes that they simply cannot afford.’”

“Joe Clarke, a police officer in Oxnard, Calif., welcomed word of the plan. He owes $390,000 on his home, which is only worth about $250,000, and he fears his adjustable-rate loan will reset to a higher rate in August. ‘I’ve made my payments,’ he said. ‘I didn’t walk away from my house. I’m just not being afforded the opportunity to refinance my home, even at the current value, without taking the principal off.’”

The Sun Herald. “Don’t expect any of them to admit it, but it turns out they were wrong — all those politicians who whined for many years that high taxes and lousy business conditions were pushing Californians to leave for other states. The tide of middle-class Californians leaving the state has never had much to do with taxes, the business climate or jobs. Rather, it was mostly about housing prices.”

“As long as residents of coastal California counties from San Diego to Ventura, San Mateo and Marin could sell their homes for enormous profits and then buy much larger properties in other states or inland counties with cash left over, they did it.”

“In 2004-05, for example, more than 47 percent of all moves within the United States were housing related, with the largest share motivated by a desire for bigger, better and cheaper homes, according to a new Brookings Institution study based on information from the U.S. Census Bureau and the Internal Revenue Service. By contrast, less than 18 percent of moves were related to jobs, and the majority of those involved transfers.”

“But last year, housing motivated only 17 percent of all moves, a drop of about two-thirds from five years earlier, while job-related moves accounted for 34 percent of moves. Meanwhile, the actual number of job-related moves was lower than it had been for the last decade. When the housing bubble popped, the game of musical chairs mostly ended.”




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84 Comments »

Comment by Bill in Carolina
2010-03-30 09:52:58

Being that it’s so financially strapped, does anyone think Cali will change its tax laws to not levy taxes on forgiven mortgage debt?

Comment by SMF
2010-03-30 11:32:46

California could do it…but…

What some forget is that loan forgiveness, both Federally and State, apply to very specific circumstances.

The would-be-millionaire-investor who lost 10 homes to foreclosure is screwed. And many others who took out HELOCs as well.

Comment by pismoclam
2010-03-30 18:57:04

That’s discrimination: What about CASEY ???

 
 
Comment by joeyinCalif
2010-03-30 11:40:42

Being that every govt is so financially strapped, who would think any of them will change any tax laws to not levy taxes on anything?

 
Comment by Kim
2010-03-30 12:07:21

It wouldn’t surprise me if they did change their laws.

I’m much more hard-lined, though. If you don’t want to pay the taxes on the forgiven debt, you can always pay back the debt itself. I know the FBs don’t have any money, but they’re still free to negotiate taxes down or file bankruptcy or whatever it takes. I don’t think its easy for these people to walk away, but its not governments role to make it easier at the expense of everyone else either.

 
Comment by Va Beyatch in Norfolk
2010-03-30 13:07:08

If so much income is going to be taken, why would you ever return to full employment again?

 
Comment by Captain Credit Crunch
2010-03-30 20:12:22

If they change the law, I hope they also change the law such that banks can’t claim the loss on their corporate income taxes. The purpose of the law was to keep the state whole on bad deals, with a decline of tax revenue from the bank due to the claim of a loss offset by the increase in tax on the individual for roughly the same amount.

California can not afford to lose any tax revenue. I don’t think the law will be changed.

 
Comment by ajb
2010-03-31 20:45:41

California non-recourse loans - got to know it to use it. Owned four homes in California over the years but never refied or took out 2nd’s etc. Someone probably refied their 2005 purchase money mortgage and is now in trouble.

 
 
Comment by Muggy
2010-03-30 09:57:34

“Poor training and inexperience”

Yeah, I’ve heard this one before. Two school board employees claimed the same thing after doling out $800,000k in MULCH contracts to one friend/shell company recently. They stated they weren’t trained by the district in “contract negotiations” and therefore it was on the district.

It’s funny how nobody needs “training” regarding loaning money to their junkie friends though…

Comment by Arizona Slim
2010-03-30 10:10:44

$800k for MULCH? Good gah-rief!

I’ve probably told y’all this before, but I’m a member of a local water harvesting co-op. When I’ve earned enough co-op hours, I’m entitled to have a workshop at the Arizona Slim Ranch. Matter of fact, I’ll be hosting one next month.

I’m now in the process of pricing out materials and vendors for the work that will need to be done in advance. For example, I’ll need to have a plumber come in to retrofit my washing machine’s drain line so that it can divert greywater to a side yard basin where a fruit tree will be planted during the workshop.

I’ll also be needing mulch. But the good news is that the co-op has connections with tree trimming companies that will dump the stuff in my driveway for free. It saves these companies a trip to the landfill, where they’d have to pay a tipping fee.

Perhaps this school district should do the same thing.

Comment by Kim
2010-03-30 11:58:03

Our municipality collects Christmas trees, mulches them up, and come spring, puts that mulch in a pile, free to anyone who shows up with a pick up truck.

Comment by Arizona Slim
2010-03-30 12:39:28

Tucson does that too. And, since Yours Truly was planning to host the workshop mentioned above, I didn’t go to the mulch-a-thon with my bike trailer. A big load of it will soon be dumped in my driveway.

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Comment by mikey
2010-03-30 17:37:20

I have been kinda busy and on the run lately but speaking about taxs and school districts, I don’t know if this was posted.

Irish bank declares Wis. school trusts in default, moves to seize remaining assets
RYAN J. FOLEY

Associated Press Writer

March 24, 2010 | 2:32 p.m.

MADISON, Wis. (AP) — An Irish bank that loaned $165 million to five Wisconsin school districts for investments that went bust said Wednesday it is moving to reclaim what is left in the accounts and speed up repayment.

Bill Broydrick, a lobbyist for Dublin-based DEPFA Bank, said the bank declared the districts’ trusts in default and was seizing the $5.6 million left in them. He told an Assembly panel the bank took the action “after it became clear that they were unwilling to meet their obligations.”

I have apretty good idea that these 5 Wisconsin school districts and the taxpayers aren’t the only ones in the collateralized debt obligations, or CDOs big money gamble to help pay for health and pension benefits promised to retirees.

Guess who will be expected to pay for this mess.

:)

http://tinyurl.com/y8e7ksp

 
 
 
Comment by Ben Jones
2010-03-30 10:15:05

‘Heimbuch admitted FirstFed began extending loans to borrowers with little or no documentation of income or assets. It even wrote increasingly popular negative amortization loans…’We didn’t do subprime loans.’

If you were doing no-doc loans, how do you know if they were even as good as subprime?

Comment by Jimmy Jazz
2010-03-30 10:54:41

They got a FICO. As we all know, it’s foolproof!

 
Comment by Steamed Bean
2010-03-30 11:48:08

Usually these clowns would run a credit score but do nothing else in a no-doc loan. If FICO was high enough, it was assumed to be a safer loan than a subprime loan and priced as such. I love the comment about how they discovered, in late 2005, that EMC was owned by Bear Stearns. Bear Stearns started EMC in the early 1990’s. These folks at FirstFed were real sharp, they competed against EMC for 15 years before realizing that the competition wasn’t originating loans to put on its own balance sheet. DOH!!!!

 
Comment by SMF
2010-03-30 13:38:05

The banks wouldn’t care about the quality of the loanee. Since values kept rising, when the ‘owner’ would foreclose, either the owner or the bank would sell it at a small (or large) profit. And owner WERE losing their homes then, but the out was pretty easy.

Hilarious how the same idiots who egged this bubble on now admit that they realized it was all a bubble and it was going to end badly.

Liars, all of them.

 
 
Comment by Mike in Miami
2010-03-30 10:20:52

“‘Now I have nearly $400,000 in canceled debt sitting out there that ultimately I’m going to be taxed on by California” if the law doesn’t change….he said, he’d have to pay his huge tax bill in installments ‘for the rest of my life.’ ‘It would financially wreck me,”
Buy now pay later! Now is later, damn it!

Comment by Bad Chile
2010-03-30 10:24:11

Wreck’d him? Coulda killed him!

 
Comment by joeyinCalif
2010-03-30 11:13:10

Look on the bright side, Mr. Piwowarski.

Think of how many people you are helping as they observe your struggle and learn what not to do.

Comment by jbunniii
2010-03-30 13:34:47

And Mr. Piwowarski himself has the chance to learn an incredibly valuable lesson himself. I’m almost envious.

 
 
Comment by rms
2010-03-30 11:13:34

Mr Piwowarski’s wife is now riding someone else’s pony too. Sniff.

Comment by In Colorado
2010-03-30 11:43:52

I love it how these “successful” couples always break up when the gravy train dies. I’ll bet even the sex was better when commission checks just kept pouring in.

Comment by octal77
2010-03-30 12:36:51


… couples always break up when the gravy train dies. …
… even the sex was better…

“When poverty moves in, love moves out’” — Tom Leykis

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Comment by pismoclam
2010-03-31 19:49:36

Look on the bright side. Cal is a community property state; the x gets 200k of the forgiven debt. If, his attorney was sharp. It happened to me. My x got 50k of loan over basis plus had to pay some other stuff. haha

 
 
 
 
Comment by octal77
2010-03-30 12:00:20


…$400,000 in canceled debt… …going to be taxed…

Mr. Piwowarski needs to think of it in terms of
400,000 dollar bill sized pieces of flypaper…

 
Comment by Sammy Schadenfreude
2010-03-30 16:19:11

But how can this be? Aren’t realtors always touting their superior research and knowledge of the local market as justification for their 6%? Kind of reminds me of when LaToya Jackson, who was touting some psychic hotline, got beat up by her husband. Hey, didn’t your psychic advisor tell you what was coming, LaToya?

Comment by DennisN
2010-03-31 11:45:16

Yes the best part of this story is that the FB is a realtor….

Always amazing they - along with loan brokers - “couldn’t see the downturn coming”.

Hey I got stuck paying cap gains on over $200K just because I’m single. That’s not “fair” either, especially since cap gains over 25 years (in my case) isn’t as much of a windfall as cap gains for a married couple over just 2 years.

 
 
 
Comment by edgewaterjohn
2010-03-30 10:32:55

“In the past four decades, the Taylors’ house has increased by more than 30 times in value. ‘I’ve heard that these houses around here go for $400,000. Can you imagine a house selling for $400,000,’ Taylor says.”

This fella, and those like him, have my sympathy. Imagine spending $13,000 for your house and then having to manage in a world where those around you sell for $400,000? This guy really did buy his house to live in and now taxes might swamp him. This is not uncommon.

Now for all those bubble buyers buying the most house they could afford…what was their plan? Did they think that their $400,000 house would someday sell for $12M? From their behavior, they must have. Better yet, how were they planning to live in a world of $12M houses when they were spending 130% of their income? And that’s the economy those nuts think is normal?

Comment by Zeus Matuze
2010-03-30 10:41:57

“In the past four decades, the Taylors’ house has increased by more than 30 times in value. ‘I’ve heard that these houses around here go for $400,000. Can you imagine a house selling for $400,000,’ Taylor says.”

Only because of prop 13 are the Taylors able to enjoy living in the house that THEY BUILT.
If he was in Coeur d’Alene or Spokane, he would have been taxed out years ago and living in a trailer out on the prairie.

This madness won’t stop for a looong, looong time. The healthscare antics will only intensify the impact. Sort of like hitting the wall at 90 MPH instead of 50.

Comment by edgewaterjohn
2010-03-30 11:11:57

Around 2005 I clearly remember reading that most (IIRC, 70%) of CA foreclosures were due to missed property taxes. So I’m curious about the role of Prop 13 - does it really help longtime residents as it was intended? What was the breakdown of those 2005 era foreclosures, we’re the new buyers or long timers?

We have something like Prop 13 here, but you have to own and live in the primary residence for 10 years to qualify. Even so, a lot of long time residents can’t keep up - the price increases (and ownership costs) from the 1950s - 1960s have just exceeded what anyone back then could have imagined.

Comment by jbunniii
2010-03-30 13:39:38

Even so, a lot of long time residents can’t keep up - the price increases (and ownership costs) from the 1950s - 1960s have just exceeded what anyone back then could have imagined.

Their property taxes even without Prop 13 would still be way cheaper than renting the equivalent place, which is the only obvious alternative. Whether they like it or not, it costs money to provide police and fire protection, schools to keep neighborhood brats off the street instead of robbing their house, etc. And those costs have certainly not remained at 1950s-60s levels.

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Comment by awaiting wipeout
2010-03-30 18:27:03

Prior to Prop 13, seniors with paid off homes were losing their homes left and right. I for one, am glad to see property tax relief for those who have been stable (real, as in paid off) homeowners. In Ca there is a law 50079(b) which exempts people over 65 on SSI and the Disabled from School Board type property parcel taxes. You do have to file annually for the exemption.

IIRC, Hawaii use to exempt seniors from all property taxes, which I liked. Hey, you pay all those years, let those coming up pay now. I’m not that old, but I do respect giving seniors a break. I’ll pay a bit more, so they can eat. Some of the property tax exemptions in different states are means tested, so I understand.

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Comment by Captain Credit Crunch
2010-03-30 20:24:47

There were about 6 foreclosures in 2005 (instead, why not just sell for bubble price and avoid foreclosure?). That’s not a very good way to make your argument.

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Comment by The_Overdog
2010-03-30 11:47:01

Craploads of farmers and ranchers have lost their land to taxes. Other families lost their land to estate taxes.

In general, we want our land to be productive for society. That was decided by the courts long ago.
I’m no democrat, but I’m also not one for the nobled gentry getting cuts in taxes just because they got there first.

Taxes suck for everyone. No need to cut this guy any kind of special break.

 
Comment by Sagesse
2010-03-30 20:11:04

A woman told me around four years ago, that their daughter had to move back in, to help with paying taxes. That was in Seattle.

And, today I talked to a young woman in Sonoma / Russian River area. She feels hurt that they lost the house that she & husband bought with a ’stated income’ loan. All kinds of emotions expressing themselves on her face, except one: remorse what actions like hers did to other people. I wonder when I will tell someone like that in their face how I feel about THEM.

 
 
Comment by james
2010-03-30 11:20:28

‘I hauled all these rocks from the mountain over there when I came home from work every night and every weekend,’ 82-year-old Frank Taylor says as he points to the retaining wall that surrounds his yard and describes how he built it rock by rock. In fact, nearly everything in this yard was built by Frank, a retired Sears repairman. He and his wife Cathy bought this house in 1962 for $13,000. ‘Of course I was only making $75 to $80 a week, so even then you wonder how you’re going to pay for it,’ Taylor says.”

Look at the price point here…. 3.25x yearly income.

I also contend that the prop 13 tax break actually tends to increase prices.

Anyhow, he has this place free and clear? He could always sell it and move to someplace really inexpensive, Nevada or Florida and live for quite a while on the proceeds from the sale.

Comment by SDGreg
2010-03-30 12:44:53

Look at the price point here…. 3.25x yearly income.

Yeah, you had a Sears repairman that could afford to buy a house in San Diego then at a relatively reasonable multiple of income. Now almost no one can, even after the price declines of the past few years.

The story noted that housing prices had gone up about 30x over 40 years. Wages maybe increased 10-15x over the same period, depending on job category? Even if one accounts for many newer houses being bigger, having more features, etc., that’s still quite a gap between wages and housing prices that’s grown over the past few decades.

 
Comment by toast on the coast 90803
2010-03-30 13:07:59

I read an obituary last year about a guy who married and raised 3 kids in the Belmont Park area of Long Beach and worked at the downtown Sears appliance store for his career. When he died typical homes (3/1) in Belmont Park were over $1,000,000.

 
Comment by Zeus Matuze
2010-03-30 22:29:07

“Anyhow, he has this place free and clear? He could always sell it and move to someplace really inexpensive, Nevada or Florida and live for quite a while on the proceeds from the sale.”

“Ve haff refvewid dur property, Herr Taylor, und haff decided dat you haff to muve to un park daf trailers und Coachella.”

Heil, cher d Weauf!

 
 
 
Comment by Silverback1011
2010-03-30 11:12:02

When I was reading the above compilation of articles, the thought that went through my mind was that ” The country is just thrashing, thrashing about, and there’s no way out.” It seems to be an accurate thought.

 
Comment by MacAttack
2010-03-30 12:56:29

I can’t see how CA can afford to change its tax law - but they’ve somehow found a way to extend a $10K tax credit?

I dunno.
I’m reading Michael Lewis’ The Big Short right now. It’s quite a read, and I can see how we got so upside-down - WE didn’t, but we’ll end up paying for it…as usual…

Comment by awaiting wipeout
2010-03-30 18:39:05

On the Ca $10K home buying credit, it is a BS credit in reality. The old version was divided into 3 years at $3,333.33 per year which would wipe out your state tax liability, but you didn’t get a rebate check for the difference. The money evaporated. The so called new version, is the fake rebate $ savings, that got rolled into the new scam to get the sheeples to bite. I would assume it’s the same BS. I wrote the FTB, and they told me there was never an implied rebate. They had no control of the external media handling the marketing/advertising. What freak’in chutzpah, and horse@x@x. If you and I did this type of cr*p, we’d be knee deep in trouble.

Comment by awaiting wipeout
2010-03-30 18:40:49

Oh, you bet I saved the email. Chutzpah is to kind a word, but I’m a lady.

 
Comment by Captain Credit Crunch
2010-03-30 20:26:52

So just make sure you have a liability (reduce withholding).

 
 
 
Comment by Professor Bear
2010-03-30 13:31:02

Home prices in California show strong, unexpected gains in January

L.A. leads the Standard & Poor’s/Case-Shiller index of 20 cities with a 1.8% increase. The national index rises 0.3% for its eighth consecutive increase. Some see recovery; others, a mixed picture.

By Alejandro Lazo

March 31, 2010

A national index for home prices rose modestly in January, with California cities showing some of the strongest gains, an unexpected piece of good news for the nation’s struggling housing market.

The closely watched Standard & Poor’s/Case-Shiller index of 20 metropolitan areas, released Tuesday, rose 0.3% in January from the prior month on a seasonally adjusted basis. The index was down only 0.7% from the same month last year, the nearest the reading had come to positive territory in three years.

The eighth consecutive month of improvement comes despite a national drop in the number of sales that began after November, when buyers had rushed to take advantage of a federal tax credit for first-time purchases before its expiration. That program was extended and expanded through April.

Karl E. Case, a professor at Wellesley College and co-creator of the index, said the improvements were a sign that the economic recovery was beginning to help consumers gain confidence.

“What people are seeing in the stock market, and what people are feeling, is the beginning of a real recovery,” Case said. “Now that the economy is starting to come back, I think the psychology has changed.”

But David M. Blitzer, chairman of the Index Committee at Standard & Poor’s, characterized the report as “mixed,” with 12 cities posting increases on a seasonally adjusted basis. When left unadjusted for seasonal variations, the 20-city index fell 0.4%.

Comment by jbunniii
2010-03-30 13:55:29

When I saw this headline I was worried that “strong” meant a 10% jump or something. The actual numbers are a lot closer to zero and will no doubt be quietly revised to negative numbers a few months down the line:

“California cities posted solid gains with the Los Angeles metropolitan area up 1.8% to lead the index. San Diego gained 0.9%, and San Francisco was up 0.6%.”

Comment by Professor Bear
2010-03-30 14:57:39

“Strong gains” = no longer declining, even if barely…

 
 
Comment by In Colorado
2010-03-30 14:01:44

“What people are seeing in the stock market, and what people are feeling, is the beginning of a real recovery,”

Where are the pay raises then?

Comment by SDGreg
2010-03-30 18:45:38

Wall Street has recovered somewhat. Everywhere else, not so much.

 
Comment by DebtinNation
2010-03-30 23:34:11

Hey man, it’s all about how people are feeling. Don’t bug us with that reality stuff. Besides, CA might make pot legal in November. Isn’t that good enough for you?

 
 
 
Comment by Professor Bear
2010-03-30 14:19:14

WSJ Blogs
Developments
Real estate news and analysis from The Wall Street Journal

* Apartment REITs Scout for Deals on Busted Condos
* How $50 Billion in TARP Money Is Being Spent on Housing
* March 30, 2010, 12:12 PM ET

What Happened to That Double Dip in Home Prices?

By Nick Timiraos

Have government policies staved off a future home price decline, or have they simply kicked a future price decline further down the road?

Standard & Poor’s, which publishes the Case-Shiller index, warns that the rebound in home prices from last fall is “fading.” There was always a big concern that home prices would slide after the tax credit expired, and while it was extended, the threat of expiration produced a big flurry in buying activity last fall.

While home price indexes that include distressed sales, such as the Case-Shiller index, hit their bottom last year, says Thomas Lawler, an independent housing economist based in Leesburg, Va. But he says there’s still reason to worry about a “risk of renewed downturn” after the home buyer tax credit expires and if the economy doesn’t improve. “The bottom’s been reached but for many people it won’t feel like a bottom,” he says.

The stream of buyers generated by the extension of the tax credit “has been less robust than expected,” says a monthly report from John Burns Real Estate Consulting. While analysts are “cautiously optimistic” forecasts for housing starts may have to be revised down in the coming weeks if sales don’t pick up.

The high-end of the housing market is still weak with more signs of distress, as sellers wake up to the fact that the luxury market won’t be able to dodge 30% price declines from the peak. And though the low end of the market has stabilized, “it isn’t picking up as quickly as we thought,” say the analysts.

Readers, do you think we’ve reached the bottom, or have we simply postponed it?

Comment by Arizona Slim
2010-03-30 14:38:42

I vote for kicking the can down the road. Reasons can be found right in the story:

The high-end of the housing market is still weak with more signs of distress, as sellers wake up to the fact that the luxury market won’t be able to dodge 30% price declines from the peak. And though the low end of the market has stabilized, “it isn’t picking up as quickly as we thought,” say the analysts.

 
Comment by SDGreg
2010-03-30 19:05:58

I’d say we’re postposing greater declines. Prices are still elevated relative to the late 90’s and the fundamentals (supply, wages) are weaker than then.

I think it will be energy price spikes associated with global peak oil production that will short circuit any economic recovery in the next couple of years and circumvent efforts to prop up housing prices.

In the mean time, we’ll build more houses that are affordable to few, adding to the glut.

And ironically, or not surprisingly, after my post yesterday on the increasingly humber of large construction pickups, I almost got run off the highway (163) on my way home yesterday when one tried to merge into my lane without looking. Dumb@ass, POS.

 
 
Comment by Professor Bear
2010-03-30 14:21:43

Slush funds are nice, as they help avoid pesky questions about why one group of tax payers are favored over another in funding allocations.

WSJ Blogs
Developments
Real estate news and analysis from The Wall Street Journal

* What Happened to That Double Dip in Home Prices?
* California Desert Town: From Bucolic Bliss to ‘Gated Ghetto’
* March 30, 2010, 3:32 PM ET

How $50 Billion in TARP Money Is Being Spent on Housing

By Nick Timiraos

The Obama administration is stressing that the revamp of its foreclosure prevention efforts won’t cost any more taxpayer money.

That’s because the administration hasn’t come close to using the $50 billion from the Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP) that it set aside for its loan modification program last year.

That money helps cover the cost of lowering borrowers’ monthly payments, usually by reducing interest rates and extending loan terms to 40 years. Loan servicers that handle mortgage payments also receive incentive payments for successfully modifying mortgages under the Home Affordable Modification Program, or HAMP. Borrowers are eligible for payments after one year in the program.

Separately, the administration said last week it would begin requiring banks to consider writing down loan balances for borrowers who owe 115% of their home value. Lenders will receive 10 to 21 cents of federal subsidies for every dollar of loan principal reduced, depending on the degree to which the borrower is underwater.

HAMP has resulted in just 170,000 permanent modifications so far and is being revamped to reach more borrowers. That means the $50 billion outlay from TARP has essentially become a housing slush fund that doesn’t require congressional approval for every new outlay or program change.

Here’s a look at where some of the money is going:

Comment by palmetto
2010-03-30 15:47:02

“Here’s a look at where some of the money is going:”

Toilet bowl.

Sewer.

Borrow pit.

Cesspool.

Comment by Professor Bear
2010-03-30 17:37:36

Hudson River.

Potomac River.

Atlantic Ocean.

FB’s household balance sheets.

Megabank, Inc’s bonus pool.

 
 
Comment by SDGreg
2010-03-30 19:12:06

Will those that get principle reduced get hit with a tax bill for forgiven debt? If so, the only people going this route will be those that don’t realize the tax consequences. No one in that situation can afford to take any sort of tax hit.

 
 
Comment by Professor Bear
2010-03-30 14:24:08

WSJ Blogs
Developments
Real estate news and analysis from The Wall Street Journal

* March 30, 2010, 3:54 PM ET

California Desert Town: From Bucolic Bliss to ‘Gated Ghetto’
By Dawn Wotapka
Gina Ferazzi / Los Angeles Times

“We loved how everything was family-oriented,” said Willowalk resident Eddie Lopez, left, with wife Maria and six of their children. They bought their 5,000-square-foot house for $440,000 in 2006. It’s probably worth about $170,000 now.

Tuesday’s Los Angeles Times takes an interesting look at what the housing boom-and bust-has done to Willowalk, a gated community in the desert town of Hemet, Calif., located about 90 minutes outside of Los Angeles.

Back in 2006, at the height of the housing mania, the Lopez family agreed to pay $440,000 for a 5,000-square-foot home in the DR Horton-built development. At the time, the community personified the American Dream: Families filled the addresses, and the community buzzed with social activities like block parties; residents flocked to the community pool. Street names like Pink Savory Way and Bee Balm Road completed the postcard-perfect image, the paper says.

But these days, the pool is shuttered. On “handsome single-family homes are padlocked doors, orange ‘no trespassing signs’ and broken front windows,” the Times reports. “Vacant homes are sprinkled throughout Willowalk, betrayed by foot-high grass.”

Angelica Stewart and her family plan to vacate the $318,000 home they bought in 2006. Living in a gated community, she tells the paper, “is absurd when drug busts are a regular occurrence.”

Willowalk is hardly an isolated case. Similar scenarios are replayed again and again in communities far from urban cores, land that saw rapid development to fill the boom’s insatiable demand. But now that prices have plunged - the Lopezes might be lucky to fetch $170,000 - the owners are gone, replaced by renters. Few owners, it seems, find a long commute worth it anymore.

Comment by Arizona Slim
2010-03-30 14:42:00

I can’t help thinking that the Lopez family is lacing up the ole walking shoes. And is that the tinkling sound of keys playing “Jingle Mail” in the background?

 
Comment by palmetto
2010-03-30 15:43:08

There’s something very satisfying about watching idiot FBs, who were part of the housing run-up and who made it hard on the more prudent among us, get the old JT. My schadenfruede meter is pinned all the way over right now. Hmmmm….wonderful.

Bee Balm, anyone?

 
Comment by Sammy Schadenfreude
2010-03-30 16:24:29

Gated communities are soulless places. One can only imagine the anomie brewing among young people growing up in such doleful places.

Comment by Smithson
2010-03-30 17:56:58

You’ve obviously not lived in a gated community. Most are wonderful, safe, harmonious and quiet.

Comment by awaiting wipeout
2010-03-30 19:16:13

Smithson
That is what is so great about choice. At least we know where the people we aren’t fond of live :)

That wasn’t a reference to you.

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Comment by awaiting wipeout
2010-03-30 19:03:44

Sammy-
We have owned in a gated community (So Ca). It is full of souless zombie brats, raising the same, who live in a fugly starkitecture two-story jungle, who live my external references and are total a-holes. I didn’t like any of them. Between the people and the neighborhood, we realized we didn’t belong.

Comment by awaiting wipeout
2010-03-30 19:08:38

“who live by external”. Typo, sorry.

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Comment by jbunniii
2010-03-30 14:46:30

‘I paid a pretty penny, $765,000, for that house,’ he said. ‘Now I have nearly $400,000 in canceled debt sitting out there that ultimately I’m going to be taxed on by California” if the law doesn’t change.

I think if this gentleman thinks about it very carefully, he will remember that the “pretty penny” he paid for the house was not his own, but the bank’s. He can easily avoid the tax problem by returning the money that he borrowed.

Comment by BubbleButt
2010-03-30 16:24:27

I look at it as paying the taxes due on the cash back that he got at closing.

 
Comment by Sammy Schadenfreude
2010-03-30 16:25:51

Speculators like him drove up prices for everyone. He’s boo-hooing about being taxed on canceled debt? He got off lightly.

Comment by DebtinNation
2010-03-30 23:48:47

I say we bring back people being pilloried.

 
 
 
Comment by Professor Bear
2010-03-30 14:55:12

Given that a strong economic recovery has taken hold, as evidenced by daily new highs on the DJIA, I see no reason why animal spirits would not be a sufficient replacement for the Fed in continuing to drive the housing market back towards bubble-era levels of demand.

* March 30, 2010, 3:51 PM ET

Fed’s Housing Exit Leaves 50/50 Chance of a Dip

By Tiernan Ray

The Federal Reserve Board is set to end its purchase of mortgage-backed securities tomorrow, at a time when the experts are not sure if the housing market’s rebound can sustain itself.

The Fed’s exit is expected to push up mortgage rates, which could weaken demand from buyers.

Following a surprisingly strong report on home prices in January, according to the S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index, this morning, the index’s co-creator, Robert Shiller was on Bloomberg television today to discuss the risks still weighing on the market.

“We had a real sharp recovery starting a year ago, and it’s still going up on a seasonally adjusted basis, but it’s gotten weaker,” said Shiller.

“And so [the outlook is] kinda iffy right now. The big cloud on the horizon is the withdrawal of government support for the housing market. I think people are in many places getting worried about that, and so they’re hesitating to buy.”

Regarding the Fed’s exit from the MBS market, shiller remarked, “That is the big question, and it depends on animal spirits. That’s the strange thing about a modern economy: everyone is looking around and trying to judge whether it’s the right time to buy.

Comment by Professor Bear
2010-03-30 16:46:26

“I think people are in many places getting worried about that, and so they’re hesitating to buy.”

Economist’s straw man: Prospective home buyers predicating their decisions on rational expectations regarding the effect of government policy changes.

In reality, How-much-a-month Sally and Joe Sixpack are oblivious to the effect of the Fed’s MBS purchase program on home prices. To suggest this is what is driving housing market participation is a clear indication that Shiller lives in an ivory tower.

Comment by Lisa
2010-03-30 17:01:54

“In reality, How-much-a-month Sally and Joe Sixpack are oblivious to the effect of the Fed’s MBS purchase program on home prices. To suggest this is what is driving housing market participation is a clear indication that Shiller lives in an ivory tower.”

My favorite line is how higher interest rates will make a payment on a house more expensive…you know, rush out and buy before rates go up. It never seems to occur to anyone that higher interest rates will make the price of the house go down.

Comment by Professor Bear
2010-03-30 17:35:53

Keep your eye on the men behind the curtain. Perhaps with whatever as yet unannounced housing price stabilization measure replaces the Fed’s MBS purchase program, home prices will not go down.

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Comment by palmetto
2010-03-30 15:26:29

“Irene Pilien, manager of Sparky’s Self Storage, has the pulse on tough times.”

Kind of an unfortunate name for a self-storage complex, no?

Comment by Arizona Slim
2010-03-30 15:45:13

Not from Sparky’s standpoint.

 
Comment by EggMan
2010-03-30 16:01:27

In San Jose it’s “Casa de Mini-Store”. Always one of my favorites.

 
 
Comment by Professor Bear
2010-03-30 17:33:52

‘We let the sellers stay because we know what it feels like: We lost a home in Colorado in the recession of 1988.’

Er — at least according to the NBER, there were no U.S. recessions between 1982 and 1990:

Last Four Recessions and their Durations
12/07 - ?
3/01 - 11/01 8 months
7/90 - 3/91 8
7/81 - 10/82 16

Comment by Bill in Carolina
2010-03-30 18:28:32

What about the oil patch bust that began in the mid 1980’s? We got out of Dallas just, and I mean just, in time in 1985. Was Colorado affected as well?

Comment by Professor Bear
2010-03-30 18:53:02

“What about the oil patch bust that began in the mid 1980’s?”

I suspect oil-dependent parts of the Colorado economy continued to suffer long past the official end of the national U.S. recession in 1982.

Similarly, the early-1990s California regional recession continued well past the end of the national recession in 1991. I don’t believe the housing market bottomed out in many areas until 1996 or so. I don’t expect the current episode to play out much differently; if anything, I expect the CA housing market correction to play out for longer than five years past the end of the current recession, as the bubble was of greater height and longer duration this time than in the late 1980s.

 
Comment by shelby
2010-03-31 07:27:45

I gave one back to the Bank in ‘89 in Lousy-ana

Oil RE bust lasted a good 10 years in Texas, LA. Miss.

 
 
Comment by SDGreg
2010-03-30 19:33:44

“Er — at least according to the NBER, there were no U.S. recessions between 1982 and 1990:”

But there were regionally rolling severe recessions, near depressions through most of the 80’s into the early 90’s.

- Industrial midwest, early to mid 80’s
- Oil states, mid to late 80’s
- States with large defense spending (contractors, bases) - late 80’s, early 90’s

I just happened to be in each of these areas at the times they were hardest hit. The 80’s didn’t look like good economic times to me, in spite of the overall national statistics.

Comment by Professor Bear
2010-03-30 20:43:04

I hear ya, brother. In fact, I stayed in school through most of the 80s. Only in retrospect does it make sense to me why I did it; I had a good life, albeit low budget, between a little work as a teaching assistant and lots of free lance music gigs and time for several girl friends, too. And I never had to face the moribund post-70s job market until labor demand had reasonably recovered…

Comment by SDGreg
2010-03-31 00:00:35

I was fortunate to not be in the job market for most of the 80’s. One of the main reasons I went to grad school was because the job market was so poor when I finished my undergrad in the mid 80’s. I can’t say going to grad school has done much for me career wise, though it was a useful experience otherwise. But I didn’t incur any debt doing it, it did buy me time, and it probably did help some with the initial job.

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