Bits Bucket For April 13, 2010
Post off-topic ideas, links and Craigslist finds here. Please visit the HBB Forum.
Examining the home price boom and its effect on owners, lenders, regulators, realtors and the economy as a whole.
Post off-topic ideas, links and Craigslist finds here. Please visit the HBB Forum.
The New York Times
Economic View
Don’t Bet the Farm on the Housing Recovery
By ROBERT J. SHILLER
Published: April 9, 2010
MUCH hope has been pinned on the recovery in home prices that began about a year ago. A long-lasting housing recovery might provide a balm to households, mortgage lenders and the entire United States economy.
But will the recovery be sustained?
Alas, the evidence is equivocal at best.
The most obvious reason for hope is that, unlike stock prices, home prices tend to show a great deal of momentum. Correcting for seasonal effects, home prices as measured by the S.&P./Case-Shiller 10-City Home Price Index increased each month from June 1995 to April 2006, then decreased almost every month to May 2009. Since then, they have risen through January, the latest month for which data is available.
So, because home prices have been climbing of late, isn’t it plausible that they’ll keep doing so?
If only it were that simple.
Home price booms and busts do end, sometimes quite suddenly, as was the case for the boom of 1995 to 2006 and the bust of 2006 to 2009. Today, we need to worry about strong headwinds, as the government begins to withdraw its support of a still-troubled lending industry and as foreclosures are dumping millions of homes onto the market.
Consider some leading indicators. The National Association of Home Builders index of traffic of prospective home buyers measures the number of people who are just starting to think about buying. In the past, it has predicted market turning points: the index peaked in June 2005, 10 months before the 2006 peak in home prices, and bottomed in November 2008, six months before the 2009 bottom in prices.
The index’s current signals are negative. After peaking again in September 2009, it has been falling steadily, suggesting that home prices may have reached another downward turning point.
…
Link
Strong headwinds…
That’s what you call it when the terminal patient is taken off of life support?
As much as I have been amazed these past two years at the monumental amount of money the Gov’t has thrown at keeping appearances up, I’ll be amazed if there comes a will to stop.
“… I’ll be amazed if there comes a will to stop.”
Though the will to continue seems a given, I will conversely be amazed if there comes an ability to continue. As someone succinctly put it over dinner last night, ‘the government already shot all its clips.’
It would be nice if NHZ was still posting here. He would be able to compare his governments successful RE inflation program versus our fledgling effort. Our effort that will be part of a greater overall economic collapse IMO.
I’ve constantly wished the same thing.
My recollection is that he made some statements along the line of the Danish government taking various measures to simply restrict the supply of housing. One thing about that country of course is that it’s very small, and lots of it is in flood plains. So there really is quite a limitation of land there, at least compared with the U.S.
I used to live in northern CA, north of SF. Land there was fairly tightly controlled - lots of areas that were declared as “open space”, such that builders couldn’t build on it. It was really nice actually - it helped the scenery of the area. However it also contributed to housing prices being much higher than they otherwise would. Developers had to jump through hoops to get approval to develop just about any parcel of land - including doing extensive environmental and water studies (being that it didn’t rain for 7 straight months each year water use is an issue).
That being the case - I think a case could be made that there will be some increasing upward pressure on prices in the U.S. - just due to us using up the low-hanging-fruit in available space; such that in the long run housing prices may indeed exceed that of general price inflation. So far though that hasn’t happened.
I’m very curious to see if this ever breaks below 100. Overbuild of the 2000’s says it will, but government intervention might just have something else to say about it. (Note that that chart is about a year old actually)
“Through 2009 Q1″
It looked like it was headed straight through the 100 level towards the floor back then. Do you have an update to reflect the effect of the Fed’s MBS purchase program (March 2009-March 2010)?
I find it quite amazing that we all feel the need to tiptoe and whisper when discussing the Fed. Why not blow the lid off this secretive organization and figure out (1) what they attempted regarding housing market price support; (2) whether it was legally within their charter to do this; (3) who on Wall Street benefited; (4) whether said beneficiaries had a direct role in steering the Fed’s interventions?
I would think this would be an obvious way to clean up the mess and get whoever deserves to go to prison on that path; but this is just a suggestion…
It looked like it was headed straight through the 100 level towards the floor back then. Do you have an update to reflect the effect of the Fed’s MBS purchase program (March 2009-March 2010)?
Sure
My recollection is that he made some statements along the line of the Danish government taking various measures to simply restrict the supply of housing.
NHZ is Dutch, not Danish.
packman - thanks for this great chart.
I posted it to the Los Angeles redfin boards - hope you don’t mind.
NHZ is Dutch, not Danish.
Mmm, danish…. <drool>
The great Japanese poet Basho once wrote that “A flute with no holes is not a flute. And a doughnut with no hole is a Danish”.
Mmm, danish…. <drool
Don’t forget the Swedes.
NHZ is Dutch, not Danish.
Doh - I knew that. Brain cramp.
In defense of Dutch treats (do they need defending?), a pannekoek is a lovely and delicious thing.
What is a bummer is all of us bears missed the huge rally from last march until now. I am still hunting for the next great place to invest. I have a few shorts that look good and will input them tomorrow.
Several of my friend almost recouped everything.
I have been all cash for 3+ years, so, no gains, no pains, no gains… BUT WHAT NEXT?
Comment by Professor Bear
2010-04-12 23:16:42
“What are you going to do between now and when prices reach historical levels?”
Waiting for:
1) Expiration of first time buyers tax credit
2) Aftermath of end of Fed’s MBS purchase program
(e.g. ‘higher than expected’ mortgage rates)
3) Shocked expressions on FB’s faces when they learn that yes, home prices do have farther to fall from here
4) Blood in the streets
5) Many heard to say, “Real estate is the worst investment”
Capiche?
——————
Capiche, but no mention of how much your rent is now, and what type of housing you receive in return, and how long you think it will be until ‘blood is in the streets?
Aren’t these part of the equation, or is it different this time?
Hey Muggy, don’t let the school yard bully get to you.
Concur. I’ts up to you Muggy. (psst jobsecurity psst)
Job security doesn’t much exist anymore, unless of course you’re a failed Wall Streeter or a Congresscritter or member of the O administration. Otherwise, no job is safe.
You can always be a “community activist” who gets paid off by the Democratic party and can extort local businesses with “no justice no peace” threats from rent-a-mobs.
Here is a snapshot of IBM’s US headcount:
2005 133,789
2006 127,000
2007 121,000
2008 115,000
2009 105,000
2010 98,000 estimate
These are all good paying jobs that can support a family and pay taxes.
Today, 75% of the total headcount is overseas. The overseas revenue is 65%. The company reported record profits last year. IBM decided to stop reporting their US headcount this year.
I see a trend in those numbers. They indicate rising house prices and strong consumer spending. Now, can I be an eCONomist?
Job security doesn’t much exist anymore
My thoughts exactly. I moved 4 months ago to be closer to work, and also to have a bigger place with a nice yard for my dog and garden. I quite like where I’m at, and have a short commute (~15 mins on country roads).
I am looking for new employment, however, so my commute may change drastically. As such, I might be looking to move in the near future.
I don’t know how anyone can feel comfortable buying a house in this environment. I know I don’t want to leave the area, but having the ability to move within the city is *HUGE* as far as quality of life. Having a 15 minute commute each way rather than 1hr plus is just too big a factor.
And this isn’t even considering moving to another city or state…
And this isn’t even considering moving to another city or state…
Which I had to do, several times. Honestly, one of those John Madden buses is starting to sound good right about now. Aren’t they only $100K? Drive from one job to another, and settle in the parking lot like that Gonzo doctor on medical show in the early 80’s.
IBM is kind of a relic. I think a lot of people have moved on from the mainframe/server model in the US. Not a big shock their headcount is down.
Also, you could look at Toyota’s headcount. I’m sure it is the mirror of this with the US headcount going up.
If IBM has 65% of its revenue and 75% of its headcount overseas then I think it’s still pretty well balanced. Remember the overseas employee is probably much cheaper than the US employee so comparing dollar for dollar, total overseas payroll should be considerably less than 75% of the total payroll.
Class A motorhomes can hit over $1 million dollars, but you can get them much cheaper of course.
Today, 75% of the total headcount is overseas. The overseas revenue is 65%. The company reported record profits last year. IBM decided to stop reporting their US headcount this year.
Similar stort at Hewlett Packard.
IBM is kind of a relic. I think a lot of people have moved on from the mainframe/server model in the US. Not a big shock their headcount is down.
Mainframes are but a small part of IBMs business. IBM is now a big UNIX and Windows server shop. And don’t write off the mainframes, there are some things they do better than any UNIX box could ever do.
IBM is hardly a ‘relic’. They’re only laying off folks in the US and they’re doing plenty of hiring overseas (as is HP).
They are very diversified and a lot of their business comes from consulting and outsourcing (Global Services). HP is copying their model (which is why HP bought EDS). Unfortunately a lot of this work is now perfromed by low paid 3rd worlders.
IBM headcount has been going down here since the 1980s. I can still remember the young suits that used to show up at my IT shop 20 years ago. Also, Digital, Unisys…all the Big Iron. Those days are long gone, eh.
You can purchase a very nice Motor Home for $90k…I happen to be sitting in one right now in Palm Desert
Drive from one job to another, and settle in the parking lot like that Gonzo doctor on medical show ??
I have met a number of “Traveling Nurses” in R/V parks…They typically have a specific and highly trained skill set..Say; Neonatal ICU…
They make a “boat load” of money, are in very high demand and work 3-4 days a week…
Trapper John MD. I knew I’d remember it.
Puh-lease… my disagreement with an irrationally exuberant buyer who recently did a 180 degree turn in his thinking about making a home purchase makes me a bully? I guess I need to find a blog whose readers have thicker skins…
How can an opinion make one a bully? Bring it, PB.
It’s really disgusting to see Muggy and others here start talking like real estate troll zombies. Did somebody steal Muggy’s brain? Or did his wife threaten to lock the bedroom door if he refuses to sign the mortgage papers?
Enquiring minds want to know…
“How can an opinion make one a bully?”
Once you fall in love with your own beliefs, anyone who disagrees with them can easily appear to be a bully.
Maybe not a bully, but I’ve noticed a couple bouts of narcissistic rage that have have left a few HHBers befuddled.
By all means, no one should hesitate to present arguments when they disagree, but due so civilly. Hurling the personal insults makes one come off as almost trollish.
That said, I still look forward to reading your comments, even after being on the receiving end of them.
“Did you see the size of that garage?!” -lol
(the big garage is supposed to be an even trade for the man’s nuts.)
It’s really disgusting to see Muggy and others here start talking like real estate troll zombies.
Muggy has hardly turned into a disgusting “real estate troll zombie.”
Why so inflammatory?
“Hurling the personal insults makes one come off as almost trollish.”
Please show me where I made a personal insult so I can retract it. But my suggestion that Muggy is coming off like the guy in the Suzanne Researched This commercial is exempt from my offer.
“It’s really disgusting to see Muggy and others here start talking like real estate troll zombies.”
Did you see a large empty pea pod nearby?
my disagreement with an irrationally exuberant buyer who recently did a 180 degree turn in his thinking about making a home purchase makes me a bully?
No, your delivery just made you come across as an…ass. Chiming in and trying to be a voice of reason is one thing. Putting someone down and beating them up for trying to do the right thing for their family is just weak, IMO.
Key sign of bubble-era thinking: Summarily labeling anyone who disagrees with your irrational exuberance as an ass or a bully.
The fundamentals of GS’s point are valid. His delivery sucks.
If you don’t like your news without Pablum, then please avoid reading my posts (or feel free to let me know if you think they suck )…
Your delivery sucks, Exetor. Like Meastons, Polly’s, and Grizzly’s. You are the bullies. Plus you are partisan and can say nothing bad about the political party in control of the oval office and congress. Hypocrite.
PB is no bully.
Pot, meet kettle.
Boohoo for bilabong.
I feel so left out.
Oxide,
Apparently you don’t frighten and enrage Bile the way the rest of us do.
Hey, does this mean I am one of the cool kids?
Oxide, I officially invite you to sit with us at lunch.
I’m still trying to figure out why Muggy’s getting raked over the coals far worse than any other poster that’s decided to go for it.
Carrie:
Maybe he is torn between a safe boring edu. job and a home for his little ones…or to follow his music passion…..we all wish him well…and yeah Professor a little “bullying” sometimes is needed to get at the real truth.
I think it was the “Suzanne Researched This” tone of his discussion of his recent home purchase offers that set me into a blind rage.
Yeah he does hint at Mrs Muggy wanting an answer…yesterday.
Your just fine as far as I am concerned Pbear…Lots of arrows get thrown back-and-forth on the blog…Just don’t take it personally..
Words should be a little wild, for they are the assault of thought on the unthinking.
– John Maynard Keynes –
Learn to swim.
Maynard James Keenan
Note to self: When you decide it’s time, slink away into the night and do not ask permission.
I imagine there’s got to be more presssure to move on deals in areas that have seen large corrections vs places where we live, PBear, that have seen virtually little.
I think you are correct CarrieAnn…
CarrieAnn — I suspect you are right. Perhaps Muggy is victim to my venting over San Diego prices that just won’t settle down to affordable levels. By the time they do, I will be out of the market, so I suppose I should just shrug my shoulders and move on to bigger and better things than fantasy home ownership.
There are many issues at play when looking for a dwelling. If we were talking about stocks, bonds, etc., I would say you should wait. But what we are talking about is how and where you and your family will experience this thing called life. Once a day is gone it’s gone. I personally always take the long view.
No one answer is right for everyone. Muggy, my advice is go with your gut. Mine has rarely failed me.
Amen Brother. Live your Life.
Ditto here…
Here’s how I hope to finish up (like the beachcomber ;-)):
As the deal nears completion, Gordon discovers that Ben Knox (Fulton Mackay), an old beachcomber who lives in a snug driftwood shack on the shore, actually owns the beach through a grant from the Lord of the Isles to his ancestor. MacIntyre tries everything to entice Ben to sell, even offering enough money to buy any other beach in the world, but the old man refuses to budge. He is content with what he has.
Good ol’ Burt…Oil, scheme’s, real estate…it’s all there!
For you youngsters, see if you can find it…
Local Hero, From Wikipedia
Local Hero is a 1983 Scottish film
This is the view that I take. I bought a large house in ‘04, and it has been a terrible investment. However, it has been a great house to live in. My kids have their own rooms, and plenty of room to play. The yard is a nice size for a swing set and a kiddie pool. My payment is 29% DTI, and that’s with a 15 year fixed. Sure, it’s sad to see my equity decreasing, even as I pay down the principle by $900/month. But do I wish I’d rented the last 6 years? Not really. A house is a place for my family to live, more than an investment.
There is nothing wrong with the American Dream. It’s when the NAR and the banks take advantage of that sentiment to fleece the middle class and make themselves feel important, and label themselves “producers” doing “God’s work” that makes me mad. As said by a young man struggling with himself in 1987, How many yachts can you waterski behind? How much is enough?
“…no mention of how much your rent is now,…”
– $2300/mo = 1835 sq ft 4br/2.5ba (1/2 a duplex)
– Same rent this year as in 2008 and 2009
– PUSD, rec club, free lawn care (landlord paid), nice neighborhood (except for aforementioned sex criminal, whom I watch like a hawk, and who is not named John Albert Gardner III)
=======================================================
– Current median list price for a 4/2.5 on the MLS for our zip code (Redfin dot com): $679,000 = 2679 sq ft 4/2.5 (SFR)
– Location: Westwood (where a recent sensational sex crime occurred)
– Closest comp to our home (in terms of location, beds, baths and square footage): $599,000 = 1961 sq ft 4/2.5 (SFR)
========================================================
Price to rent ratio between closest comp and our rental (adjusted to reflect difference in square footage):
(599,000/1961)/(2300/1835) = 244 (versus 100-120 one would expect at the bottom).
Conclusion: Local sellers’ expectations are not in a bubble, but they are a bit frothy.
P.S. It is really hard in San Diego County to avoid living near sex criminals. Ya just gotta watch your kids’ and spouse’s backs.
How do you manage that while employed?
The kids are in school during the day and my daughter has after-school activities, so I am generally around here when the kids are home. I am prepared to injure, send to prison or fight to the death anyone who tries to harm my kids.
“I am prepared to injure, send to prison or fight to the death anyone who tries to harm my kids.”
That would be a good way to blow off some HBB steam. All while providing a public service.
I worry my “small-town” kids won’t have the cunning to avoid “big-city” predators.
“”I worry my “small-town” kids won’t have the cunning to avoid “big-city” predators.”"
Huh?? This isn’t 1945. Kids are all the same these days.
Having kids sure does make one’s teeth sharper. Now I know why never find yourself between a mama bear and her cubs.
It is really hard in San Diego County to avoid living near sex criminals.
So why stay? We lived in San Diego County many years ago and while the weather is nice I am quite happy to have left that overrated town behind. Maybe if I had enough money (in other words, if I was stinking rich) to live in La Jolla or Del Mar I might see things in a different light, but I’m a worker bee/wage slave who finds even rental prices for old houses in icky SD neighborhoods to be stratospherically high.
Its a nice place to visit though.
Are you saying that “spot the sex criminal” is not a fun family game when driving? You’re just being old-fashioned.
Are you saying that “spot the sex criminal” is not a fun family game when driving?
LOL. Dad: I spy, with my little eye, a sex-offender whose crime starts with an…’s’.
Kids: Sodomy! No, statutory rape!
Dad: Nope- sexual battery! You kids are slipping.
Kids: Aw dad, no fair. That’s a tough one. Do over!
—
Good times….
Here is more evidence the Fed and the feds should soon end their housing market life support measures, as the market is increasingly showing signs of recovery, at least in San Diego County. It is time for Uncle Sam to remove the feeding tube and stand out of the way so Mr Housing Bubble can get up from his bed, walk away and obtain release from the hospital where he has been confined for the duration of the Great Recession.
Median March 2009 SFR sale price in our zip code (92127) = $720,000 (26 single-family homes)
County housing market strengthening
By Roger Showley, UNION-TRIBUNE STAFF WRITER
Originally published April 12, 2010 at 12:55 p.m., updated April 12, 2010 at 10:42 p.m.
* 2010 vs. 2009 March housing statistics, sorted by ZIP (PDF)
SAN DIEGO — San Diego County’s housing market shook off its winter doldrums and turned in a March median that suggests prices have firmed up and may be heading upward, MDA DataQuick figures showed Monday.
The local firm that tracks the real estate market reported the March median at $330,000, equal to December’s level. It was $45,000, or 15.8 percent, higher than in March 2009 — the biggest percentage increase in five years — and up $8,000, or 2.5 percent, from February.
DataQuick analyst Andrew LePage said the rise is mainly because of more higher-cost homes selling instead of a general rise in appreciation. Homes selling for more than $400,000 comprised 37.4 percent of the March market, up from 34.1 percent in February and 26.9 percent in March 2008. At the same time, homes selling for less than $300,000 accounted for 42.3 percent of the market, down from 43.6 percent in February and 52.6 percent a year ago.
“It’s price softness in the high-end that is driving sales and bringing up the high-end total contribution to countywide sales,” LePage said.
…
“…prices have firmed up and may be heading upward…”
Buy now or get priced out forever!
I love how their first paragraph jumps to the completely unjustified conclusion of “prices [...] may be heading upward”, in spite of the remainder of the article describing the reason for the higher median as mix-shift.
Don’t you see? You can’t remove price supports when prices are falling, because things will get worse. You can’t remove price supports when prices are starting an upswing or you’ll stifle a nascent recovery. You can’t remove price supports when prices are booming because the market is fragile and you could be the cause of a collapse.
In other words, you can never remove price supports.
In other words, you can never remove price supports.
Yup, the credit isn’t going away, and will probably become more generous as time goes by.
Conclusion: Once put into effect, U.S. housing subsidies can never be eliminated. (Likewise for ag programs…)
I commented late last night about being at a meeting attended by many realtors and mtg brokers. All were in agreement that the tax credit won’t be coming back after this month.
As long as we are going through my late night list again, why not include:
Comment by Professor Bear
2010-04-12 23:18:09
Almost forgot:
6) Collapse or bailout of California economy
7) Massive shadow inventory dump depresses housing prices by “more than expected”
“…and how long you think it will be until ‘blood is in the streets?’”
I don’t have a ’statistically valid’ data set, but some anecdotal evidence from the early 1990s financial crisis (aka “recession”) might shed some light:
- Official dating of the recession, according to the National Bureau of Economic Research: July 1990 - March 1991
- Approximate timing of related CA real estate bust: 1990 - 1996
- Los Angeles Rodney King riots = 1992
- O.J. Simpson murder trial = 1995 (ex-wife murdered / “blood in the streets” in 1994)
“Aren’t these part of the equation, or is it different this time?”
I do think it is different this time.
– The dislocation and subsequent realignment in household wealth experienced from 2000-2010 is the greatest in U.S. history at least going back to the 1930s.
– The collective denial about the Fall 2008 financial meltdown is only beginning to end.
– Green shoots rhetoric notwithstanding to the contrary, we are not out of the proverbial woods just yet.
“O.J. Simpson murder trial = 1995 (ex-wife murdered / “blood in the streets” in 1994)”
Technically, that was blood on the steps, in the mini-courtyard and on driveway surfaces. “Everyone” wants to live in Brentwood anyway, but maybe not south of Sunset.
I have read that the Realtor-Senator from Georgia has given up on renewing the tax credit gimmick. Is there a consensus that we will finally be rid of it when it expires in 17 days (for new contracts) ?
See my comments a few posts above. Realtors in “my circle” are in agreement that it’s not coming back.
Wait a minute. Now I remember.
I hate Muggy.
Hell dude, buy a big a house as you can afford. Stretch. You will get all the leveraged gains!
Perhaps Smuggy should not share so much of his ’smart home buyer’ exuberance here? I doubt I will even mention it on the HBB if I ever get around to buying RE again…
I saw a Marketwatch article that said the bailouts worked, and their price tag was a relatively paltry 89 billion.
To that I thought, yes, they achieved short term market stabilization (Dow only down 3-4K) and arrested unemployment at around 10%.
But the price tag I am skeptical about. Wasn’t the Fed just buying 1.25 trillion in mortgages? What about the extra trillion the fed has spent in the two previous recent bailouts, starting in Fall 07?
And with the bailouts, the Fed and the government have really enhanced the perverse incentives to continue the kind of behavior that leads to bailouts - basically an institutionalization of too-big-to-fail, and further lack of concern of quality of loans.
To me, it seems that the bottom line is that until the government ties lenders inextricably to repayment risk, the problem of bad loans, backed by the US taxpayer, and enrich those willing to make bad loans, will continue unabated.
“I saw a Marketwatch article that said the bailouts worked, and their price tag was a relatively paltry 89 billion.”
Category I scam:
- Announce a $700 bn bailout
- Claim it worked when the tab ‘only’ comes to ‘a paltry $89 bn’
“…and how long you think it will be until ‘blood is in the streets?’”
Elisabeth Warren says commercial RE loan resets are scheduled for 2011, 12 & 13.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ERlMxc84_EM
(posted March 05, 2010)
“…Aren’t these part of the equation, or is it different this time?”
Time for a novel approach!
Maybe, the 30 year mortgage, long term job insecurity & non life-time location is a flawed innovation for 6 Billion peoples?
Needing to live near work is a flawed model for most of the country. The idea of “knowledge” workers travelling to an office every day is quickly coming to an end. It’s not going to matter where most of these people live 10 years from now, they will all be working remotely anyway.
Remotely, as in half a world away?
That is the problem, and we are already suffering the consequnces of it.
+1
Well, it’s not just an economic decision. How would you FEEL about continuing to rent? How would you FEEL if you purchased a house and the price fell another 20%? 30%?
I don’t particularly like renting, but I don’t dislike it enough to want to enjoy the last $150,000 of price declines in the San Diego purchase market at a time when the whole State of CA is on the brink of collapse and property tax increases are a reasonable strategy for avoiding bankruptcy.
whole State of CA is on the brink of collapse and property tax increases are a reasonable strategy for avoiding bankruptcy.”
probably just not property taxes I was in AZ last weekend they will vote on a “temporary” sales tax increase just to get through the bad times …..
just like the CA “temporary” 1/2 cent sales tax increase to help with Earthquake recovery
Question: if taxes go up faster than saleries do you think home prices can increase ? Is it Inflationary or Deflationary ?
if taxes go up faster than saleries do ??
if ?? IF !!! You better bet on it and it is going to come at you from more angles then you can imagine…
if ?? IF !!! You better bet on it and it is going to come at you from more angles then you can imagine…
Already is. E.g. my property taxes have gone from .94 to 1.30 mill rate in just 3 years. All kinds of new taxes in the health care acts of course.
probably just not property taxes I was in AZ last weekend they will vote on a “temporary” sales tax increase just to get through the bad times …..
I call BS on the “temporary” part.
However, this thing seems to have some legs. To the point where it may well pass.
The AZ powers that be (well, most of them) certainly would not have wanted that tax placed on the August federal/state/county/local primary ballot date when all the zealots like me will be out in force. Sneak it in during a May election when only the ultra-zealous cheapskates like me will pay enough attention to vote no.
I am not convinced that it will pass even if with an odd election date. I have not seen much polling on the Proposition 100 sales tax hike.
Just a note to those who think CA prop 13 is part of the problem:
The STATE income tax rate hits 10% for persons earnign more than $47,000/annum. In the most populous counties sales tax is also near or above 10%. Higher earners have progressively higher taxes.
$47K is not much money these days, if we include Fed income tax and other various and sundry one could easily be looking at paying 1/2 of earned dollars in taxes.
So Prop 13 is the problem?
tax increases are a reasonable strategy for avoiding bankruptcy ??
Not going to happen baring a constitutional Convention…Even a split roll has no chance IMO…
I say if buying makes sense to -you- then go for it Muggy. You might get hosed, and PB is trying very hard to impress that… I do agree at least on PB’s main point, I believe very strongly that we are in for further price declines in at least the next 6-10 months (beyond that, who knows), especially with the housing credit expiring.
That said, I almost bought something a few days ago. An interesting little property came up in a nice neighborhood - it was a duplex, situated in a clean little neighborhood of single family homes. No other multi-family properties anywhere nearby, and the duplex itself was pretty large and neat (no shared wall, a carport separated the two units). The place needed a bit of work to make it perfect, but it was in good shape overall and mostly needed some sweat equity.
I missed the winning bid by 900$, the place sold for 60,000$ - which is less then the place sold for in the early 1990’s.
I’ve been telling everyone to wait until the housing credit expires etc because it’s likely prices will decline a bit more going into this fall/winter season. That doesn’t mean the occasional “good deal” doesn’t come along now and again. I’d have been -very- happy with that 59,100$ purchase had I won the bidding. The payments would have been considerably less (even considering utilities) then my current apartment. I already had a renter lined up for the second unit and that would have made it essentially free to live in for at least a year or two (her rent would have covered the mortgage/utilities, I could have saved my normal rent $$$ and use it to handle any unexpected repair etc).
When I finish up my teaching program in a couple of years we’d probably be looking for something bigger anyway because we are considering having our second child. That would leave us with a cool (and -cheap-) little second property and lots of options. For instance, the wife’s parents want to move down to AZ from Montana (the weather is starting to get to them in their older age). That little duplex would have been perfect - just put them up in it and ask grandpa-in-law to take care of the place (he’s a handyman, currently runs a trailer park in MT). He could have handled renting the other place out and keeping everything up, and even if the worst happened and I had to pay for the place it wouldn’t have been back breaking.
Point is, not every single home purchased today is a bad deal. Maybe that duplex would have fallen in value, it doesn’t really matter. After my down payment I’d have been sitting on a relatively small 15 year note. I couldn’t rent a tiny studio apartment for the amount of the mortgage. I’d have had a decent place to put up the in-laws and a decent place to lay my head for the next few years in the meantime. Or, I can keep spending 830$/month on my current appt (utilities included in that).
If it makes good financial sense, I’d say buy it. From everything I’ve heard you say over time here Muggy I’d say you’re smart enough to make that decision. 250,000$ properties in florida are something -I- wouldn’t touch with someone elses 10 foot pole, but I am clearly biased against the state in general thanks to my perception of it’s economic situation. You probably know better then I do.
Meh, I’ve typed too much.
Ncinerate………
What would be the estimated “gross” monthly rent on that duplex…??
We bought a house in May. We had an apartment (just ok) with cheap rent, but the owners were revamping them and raising the rents significantly. We were also tired of having inconsiderate people living above us. Looked into renting a house in the neighborhood - rent would have cost us only $100-$200 less a month than buying the equivalent house. We had over 10% down, can afford it, and we’re happy. No more stress over the neighbors above us! We’re not planning on moving anytime soon.
I believe prices will drop a bit more. We bought in a neighborhood that, during the previous recession, held steady while other neighborhoods dropped. This neighborhood, due to great schools, has houses on the market for under 60 days instead of the 140 or so days in other parts of the county. So we might drop, but probably not as much as elsewhere.
Was it a 100% good idea to buy? Maybe not. But we weighed our options and made our choice. And for us, we have perfect credit, a down payment that allowed us to get a very low interest rate (4.875%) for 30 year fixed, and well .. we’re happy. We pay extra every month to pay down the principle. And we got the tax credit too.
so flame away if you would like, but for us it works. And if Muggy chooses to buy, I guarantee he has thought this thing out for far longer than most home buyers out there. Just like we did … this was not an impulse buy.
“I missed the winning bid by 900$, the place sold for 60,000$ - which is less then the place sold for in the early 1990’s.”
Sheesh — I would buy tomorrow under those circumstances, provide I could afford to buy the place and the home met our needs. You could go up or down $60,000 in a month in San Diego ($60,000 = 12 percent of $500,000).
same here - my list is nearly identical.
Besides - bubblicious thinking is alive and well here in LA.
The situation is different in Florida. Take a look at Cape Coral housing prices. Plenty of areas are now cheap there.
I’ve seriously been looking at starting my own little company and buying a house cash there.
I’m of the opinion that the Chinese drywall thing is overblown.
Florida is vastly different than coastal California at this time.
‘Florida is vastly different than coastal Ca at this time’ Exactly…however, if you do buy in FL, you have to buy in a good area. Mugs, the only thing that concerns me is your job. If you’re iffy on the job, don’t buy a home.
I agree Kirisdad…The job security is the key…
Yeah. I’m looking a bit off the water in these areas and can buy a place cash so… not sure what I would do to pay the taxes.
A bunch of options.
Would probably look for contract employment on the cheap at 30$-50$ an hour for design work. Could probably rake in 30-35K a year to pay for health insurance, vehicles, food exc. Wife could teach here. Sure there are a few jobs.
Not sure what the property taxes are like. I know they are high but I’m guessing it is under 600$ per month.
Also figuring in 300-600$ for customer visits every few weeks.
Looking at simple 4/2 houses. Preferably on stilts so don’t have the huricane flooding issues.
It is kind of crazy but seems workable. Looking at projects on guru.
Muggy, my two-cents worth: don’t do it.
Even ignoring the question of whether housing has further to go down in your area, I don’t think you are at the right place in your life in terms of stability to be an owner.
Why do I say that? I’d like to see you feeling comfortable in an area with an intent to stay there for at least a couple of years before making the decision to buy. A year ago you were seriously considering a move to upstate NY; this week, you’re toying with the idea of CA. Even your presumed-stable job with a 2yr horizon turned out not to be.
My general rule of thumb when housing prices made sense was that you should not buy unless you are pretty certain you will be staying put for at least 5yrs (since it takes around 3yrs just to break even on the transaction costs). In the current climate of low mobility and low liquidity in the market (if you should need to re-sell), your time horizon should be even longer.
I just don’t see that level of stability in your life reflected in your posts over the past couple of years.
That said, a haouse is more than an investment, so if you decide to buy anyway, I do wish you the best. I just hope you don’t get stucco!
“a haouse” - that’s a Minnesota/Canadian accent if I ever heard one.
Hmm. Thinking.
Momentum: up or down?
Boom or Bust: In a global economy how, why, and when?
May have reached?: Not yet
Big Red Truck: Coming at you
Survey: Consumers keep cutting spending
Business First of Buffalo
Despite some indicators that an economic recovery is underway, a majority of Americans are still trying to cut expenses, according to a survey conducted for M&T Bank.
Reducing debt and increasing savings were the two other most reported financial behaviors among the 1,000 respondents in the national phone survey, which was released Monday.
GfK Custom Research North America found that 66 percent are focused on cutting expenses and sticking to a monthly budget. Additionally, 18 percent said they are paying off or refinancing debt, and 15 percent report saving more money in a 401(k) or IRA. Just 6 percent of respondents reported that they were not taking measures to deal with the current economic conditions. In addition, only 5 percent reported that they are starting to make major purchases again.
“Buy now or be priced out forever” works in an expanding economy?
What slogan works in a contracting one? Maybe “Save all the money you can while you still have a job”?
But, wait! Ours is a consumer-based economy; If consumers decide to save instead of spend, then what?
“Save all the money you can while you still have a job”?
Pay yourself first!
I dig saving all the money I can while I still have a job. The best humility is living well below your means and building up T-bills.
One technician at work is middle-aged, hard of hearing, long silver hair, obese, and a multi-millionaire (net worth over $3 million) and wears a t-shirt and jeans every day. His only indulgences are his Lexus SUV and $80 wines.
The grasshoppers half his age are well-dressed, heavy drinkers, and have either infinitis or Lexus cars, and net worth of under $50k. I betcha the technician drove a beater of a car for the first 15 years of his career.
I respect people like that, Bill.
My ex-SiL who went to school in Arkansas used to talk about how Bill Walton drove around town in a beat-up pickup truck, and would take the time to stop and chat with her.
I still intend to live a modest lifestyle even when I decide that I have saved “enough”.
Ummm, wouldn’t that be Sam Walton?
Ummm, wouldn’t that be Sam Walton?
The basketball player?
Bill Walton played for UCLA in the 1970s. His son, Luke, played for the University of Arizona.
I know, just kidding. Bill Walton will go down as one of the greatest collage ball players of all time I think.
But Sam Walton didn’t have a jump shot.
Quick Bill Walton story from Portland. He helped the Blazers win the NBA Championship in 76-77. Being the lovable hippie (and good little Portlander) he was, he rode his bike to the celebratory parade…where it was stolen.
The need to stay fashionable is the downfall of so many.
Your technician sounds very much like a “millionaire next door”.
The need to stay fashionable is the downfall of so many.
For me it’s not about being fashionable. But there are so many cool/comfy technical clothing options out there. $100 lightweight fleeces, comfy wool pullovers, etc. My ultimate downfall
At the same point in time, many of the clothes in my closet are from my high school days (I’m 31), and I have 1 pair of “good” jeans that I can wear without worrying about what inappropriate places there might be holes :O
Hey J,
You and me both. All I can say is now that I’m 39, the need to visit REI and drool over the goo-gobs of toys diminishes over time. I actually went in there this weekend in search of some replacement sunglasses and couldn’t find anything I needed or wanted.
On a related rant, I’m really beginning to despise the whole outdoor movement. I get the impression that, based on the prices of goods (such as $100+ fleeces - Arc Teryx, I’m talking to you), people shop there to LOOK like they go outside when in reality their visits to the outdoors are nothing more than trips to the corner coffee house and Whole Foods.
(such as $100+ fleeces - Arc Teryx, I’m talking to you)
To be fair, Arc’teryx puts a lot of research effort into their products - both performance as well as the feel of the fabrics (that much should be obvious).
I happen to work for a company that is related to Arc’Teryx, but sadly I do not get discounts :/
Sadly, being new to the area, I still have a lot of gear to buy for snow sports. Just doing my part to prop up this sham economy
+1 Especially on the workout wear. You don’t need all these technical fabrics. When I was young, my dad would take us to the reject bin at the Champion outlet; we did just fine.
And the LL Bean lifestyle if hardly environmentally friendly. You have to buy enough camping gear to basically build a second home, and drive it out to the mountains in an SUV. Yeesh.
The real environmentalists are the homesteaders, who are as close to living Depression-style as anyone.
Another problem with outdoor gear is that the well-made stuff lasts a long, long, long time. I’m still using bicycle stuff that’s a couple of decades old.
Vacancies, lotsa and lotsa of CRE vacancies.
What puzzles me is how long can the CRE owners hold on with vacant storefronts? The vacant storefronts I pass have been empty for much, much longer than a few months. Utility bills, mortgage bills, property tax bills - they all keep coming.
One humorous example is a billboard I pass each day. Way back late last summer the billboard co. put up a message “see me in October”. Well, a couple more months and that will make sense again!
What puzzles me is how long can the CRE owners hold on with vacant storefronts? The vacant storefronts I pass have been empty for much, much longer than a few months.
I’ve been asking myself the same question.
In some cases, of course, the answer is a long-term owner who can afford X vacancies at current market rates. We have some friends who own a business on Grand Ave.Their store and their live/work space directly above are currently the only occupancies in a fairly large building.
The reason? Turns out the landlord, who inherited the building from his father, was tired of dealing with business churn in the commercial spaces and volatile tenants in the live/work spaces. So he pared down to the number of tenants that’ll carry his taxes and other expenses — about 1/3 occupancy by square footage, I think. They’ve been the building’s only occupants for about two years.
Commercial is typically in “strong hands” within urban centers…Its the new growth in the “build it and they will come” locations that are getting hammered…Off 60% or more…Even reasonable leverage still puts you upside down…
But, wait! Ours is a consumer-based economy; If consumers decide to save instead of spend, then what?
More factories close in China?
“Despite some indicators that an economic recovery is underway, a majority of Americans are still trying to cut expenses”
They may be trying, but they’re doing a lousy job of it. A friend wanted to book a birthday party for her daughter. Its easy to rack up $300 at these places, so I figured in this economy she’d have her pick. Of all the unnecessary spending, these parties would surely fit the bill, right? Well, one place only had a couple of early morning time slots open and another only had two openings left for the entire month.
I remember in the early hbb we often talked about the bifurcation of America. For the largest group, things would get much, much harder. But there was a recognition that there would be a much smaller group of people that wouldn’t have things that hard and in fact might even do well as wealth distribution flowed in their direction. (IE Bankruptcy lawyers, pharma, energy)
The middle class is taking it hard but there are echelons of the middle class that haven’t been hit yet. Many of them believe the danger is over in what they view as a V shaped recovery and that they survived. They’re still spending. Whether it’s delusion or whether they’re one of the chosen few that will actually move up w/in this bifurcation still remains to be seen.
Very well put. Even banana republics have a professional class. That said, the consumer economy of the past few decades cannot get by with such a small group of consumers. I can see why many think the center ring of the consumer circus will shift to Chindia for the next century.
I think most will be surprised to learn that middle income there does not = much discretionary spending
They like to fantasize that their nations are 1st world countries, but they are not.
Just wait;
Higher taxes…
Higher fee’s…
Less deductions…
Higher interest rates…
New Normal High Un-Employment
Severe Under Employment
You’ve just described each recession of the last 30 years.
Have you even experienced as a adult, the recessions in the last thirty years ??
Turned 18 in 1976.
What do you think?
So you missed the 1974-75 stagflation part…1980-82 you were twenty three…Hardly much of a adult…So your first one was 2000-2005
2000-2005 = 1990-1995…
My neighbor put his 21′ boat on Craigs List (no financial difficulty for him, he’s a retired school teacher, just downsizing). I mentioned to him that it must be a tough time to sell a boat, particularly in Minimum Wage Spokane.
“Not at All” he says, “I’ve gotten 20 calls the first day of my post”. He sold it for full asking price on the first day. Go figure.
Maybe an FB is planning to live on the boat. Easier to move a boat around to avoid the repo men, than a house.
My son tried to sell his used Wii. He had no bites at all.
How much did he want for it? The drive in ours wore out a while back and I’ve never gotten around to picking up another one. New ones are $199…I’ll probably get another one eventually. If I saw somebody getting rid of a working one for $100 I’d definitely pick it up.
My son tried to sell his used Wii. He had no bites at all.
I had no problem selling mine in a day on craigslist a few months ago. It’s all about price I think I asked $250 for a package that’d be $350+ retail. Settled on $240 cash, if I recall.
“Not at All” he says, “I’ve gotten 20 calls the first day of my post”. He sold it for full asking price on the first day. Go figure.
My experience with CL as both a buyer and seller has been this: if it’s a decent product, in decent shape, at a fair price (not a wishing price), it’ll move pretty fast.
if it’s a decent product, in decent shape, at a fair price (not a wishing price), it’ll move pretty fast ??
I just got a GREAT deal (Thank You Pbear) on a bicycle on CL….
Having been employed in the Marine Industry for 15 years, I still follow the numbers. The best barometer, I think is Marine Max. Its publicly held and has stores all over the South and MidAtlantic. Their sales are down over 50% from the debt fueled peak. I suppose many buyers these days shop the individual seller market first.
The biggest lure (pardon the pun) in the day was 15 year financing on new boats. I doubt that is available these days.
But, I am still surprised that there is that much demand for a very expensive toy.
And to think that a Mom-cooked cake and inviting the neighbor kids over was good enough for me.
That is, until I became a teenager. Then, no more parties. I just wasn’t interested in that sort of thing.
Same is still true. I’d run as fast as I could away from a birthday party.
“House Hunters” was fun last night. It was someone in Cincinnati looking for a new home for him and three daughters. First house, large, very modern, $ 1.9 M; second house, larger, more trad design, $ 1.4 M; third house, smaller “fixer-upper” for $ 880 K. All of them in an upscale neighbourhood, with very large lots (acres in size)
Anyway he picked the “fixer-upper” …and tore it down. (too many unspecified problems for a reno to fix). So he paid $ 880 K for a lot and a driveway…
Did you catch the original date on this program? And did he say anything about what sort of new house he would build?
Date? Star year 6413.
No I missed the date. I suspect it was 2 or 3 years back at least. The follow up was 10 months after and showed the new home under construction. It looked bigger than the old one (which was 2900 sq ft, IIRC)
It’s from season 40 that seems to be the latest season for this show. Maybe it is from last year…
“Doug’s a single dad of 3 teenage daughters and they’re all sharing one bathroom in their current cramped home. He wants to find a larger home where they can spread out and build great memories that will last a lifetime. They’re looking for a home in the Indian Hill area outside of Cincinnatti, Ohio. They’ll check out three very different homes but will they find one they can all agree on?”
I also watched it. The guy had his three teenage daughters vote on the house they wanted him to buy. I thought that was a little disgusting. Teenage girls should not be making major financial decisions for their father. I don’t get it. I can hear it now: “No one saw this coming not even my three tenage daughters, and they even twittered their friends. If they said I could afford and need it, who am I to argue. My oldest has a 3.0 gpa.”
I also watched it. The guy had his three teenage daughters vote on the house they wanted him to buy. I thought that was a little disgusting. Teenage girls should not be making major financial decisions for their father. I don’t get it. I can hear it now: “No one saw this coming not even my three tenage daughters, and they even twittered their friends. If they said I could afford and need it, who am I to argue. My oldest has a 3.0 gpa.”
Wow… just wow.
I never watch those shows, or pretty much any “reality” show for that matter, since they generally show very little reality, only create it. I generally don’t blame the media though - real reality is usually boring, and doesn’t make for good TV viewing. I blame society in general for just not getting a life of their own, and having to live vicariously through their TV’s, and allowing the media to make decisions for them when they do try to get a life.
“The guy had his three teenage daughters vote on the house they wanted him to buy.”
Seriously?? Did they all vote for the $1.9MM house?
Best Greedy FB show ever:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3lQtBzq7CdI
A friend described family democracy as follows: “Sometimes we count the votes, and sometimes we weigh the votes. (and Mom/Dad’s votes out-weigh the kids’ votes…)”
There’s a commercial where the kids vote and win. However the father tells them is a dictatorship not a democracy.
I’m just glad our government is doing everything it can to help this poor guy.
Didn’t see the episode but I live outside Cincinnati.
$1.9Million can buy you 120 acres of land 10 miles outside the loop. Anyone who spends more than $600k for a house in the Cincy area is out of their mind (or buying one of the best mansions in the Indian Hills area).
If someone had $1.9Mil to spend on a house, they could buy a really nice place for $600k and a second home anywhere else in the world.
I would be surprised if more than 10 homes sold in metro Cincy for more than $1million in even the best of years (not counting those with 100 acres of prime farm land).
Yes, he was looking in Indian Hills. It was unexplained how he was going from a 2 BR/1 bath house that looked like it would be worth about $ 100 K to shopping in the $ 1.5 M bracket. Family money? Lottery win? Didn’t give his occupation.
Family money? Lottery win? ??
Exactly…Or something similar to it…
Actually, he probably had a successful business, but it took time to pay off the divorce and build the business back up.
Seen that WAY too many times.
LOL, CincyDad. I spent my college years in Cincinnati and I KNEW it had to be Indian Hills they were talking about. When I was there it was definitely the enclave of the doctor/lawyer set. Sounds like this guy got some free money and wanted to make a show of it.
In the early 90s, I think a place like Indian Hills woulda been, what, $300k-$400k max?
Essentially paying $880k for a lot in…CINCINNATI? I see ocean view lots for sale in California for $300k. Cincinnati?
Bengals.
WKRP.
No earthquakes.
What’s not to like?
Ohio River view! Actually, unless I were extremely wealthy, I’d much rather live in Cinci than LA or most of southern Cal. Way better quality of life (and people) for the buck in Cincinnati.
Jerry Springer (okay, probably not there anymore but you can say you live where he once lived!)
Skyline Chili
but you can say you live where he once lived!)
Lived? He was the mayor! That tops Sonny Bono, Cali!
(Gotta say, though, I find Cincinnati-style chili revolting. But I don’t mind a little goetta.)
I’ve heard Cinci has winter. BRRRRRR!
JPMorgan Profit May Show Decline on Consumer-Lending Results
April 13 (Bloomberg) — JPMorgan Chase & Co., the second- biggest U.S. bank by assets, may show a decline in net income on losses from credit cards and home lending when it reports first- quarter earnings tomorrow.
Profit was probably about $2.93 billion, or 64 cents a share, according to the average estimate of 21 analysts surveyed by Bloomberg. That compares with net income of $3.28 billion, or 74 cents, in the fourth quarter and $2.14 billion, or 40 cents, a year earlier at the New York-based bank.
Mortgage writedowns may be as high as $2.5 billion per quarter during 2010, compared with $8.3 billion in all of 2009, according to company data. Analysts including Anthony Polini at Raymond James & Associates said they will be watching to see if Chief Executive Officer Jamie Dimon was able to reduce provisions against future credit losses as a gauge of whether the worst of the U.S. housing crisis is behind the company.
“The key factor for this quarter for banks will be to say reserve builds are largely behind us and the outlook for lower problem loans and loan losses have improved for the second half of the year,” Polini said. “It’s the outlook that matters.”
“It’s the outlook that matters.”
If its the outlook that matters, then a rosy outlook you will hear. Bank CEOs are still lying on a as-required basis according to the script of the Recovery(TM).
How does the outlook on consumer loans look if you assume 10% of state and local government employees are going to be unemployed within 2 years?
May I plug a PBS program? Tonight’s PBS Frontline is going to be VERY interesting:
—–
“Barack Obama promised change. Then he took on one of Washington’s toughest issues: health care. During his first year in office, he found himself making one deal after another with Capitol Hill’s powerful insiders–lobbyists and influential members of Congress. He angered his political base, watched his popularity sink, and nearly failed to pass the bill. In Obama’s Deal, FRONTLINE follows the story of the president’s historic victory and offers the first in-depth look at how the Obama administration operates. Veteran FRONTLINE producer Michael Kirk (Bush’s War, Dreams of Obama, Inside the Meltdown) provides a sobering view inside Obama’s deals and reveals the realities of American politics, the power of special interest groups, and the role of money in policy making.”
—–
More info on the PBS website. Frontline is sometimes biased, but they are not given to fluff pieces. Maybe this will clear up some of the complaints (from both sides) about smoke-filled-rooms and where’s-my-transparent-debate-on-Cspan and Obama-is-a-sellout.
Is there an online view to PBS shows, for those of us who are not plugged in to cable?
You can get PBS over the air, but if it doesn’t come in, YES! the whole show will be available online — I think they’ll have it up as soon as tonight. Plus, if you’re broadband challenged or time challenged, they put up a transcript within a week.
PBS has the best website on the Net. I need to send them more money.
Yes, on the PBS dot org website.
Got yer link right here!
FYI, PBS Frontline, usually airs their TV and online releases simultaneously.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2010/04/12/jpmorgan-chase-argues-aga_n_534898.html
“With millions of homeowners losing their homes to foreclosure during this recession, megabank JPMorgan Chase plans to argue against the Obama administration’s latest weapon in its fight to stem the problem — principal cuts for struggling borrowers — by citing the sanctity of contracts and the borrower’s “promise to repay.”
In testimony to be delivered Tuesday afternoon, David Lowman, chief executive officer for home lending at the “Too Big To Fail” behemoth, will fight back against the program which calls for lenders and investors to decrease the outstanding debt owed on a home mortgage. While his competitors at Bank of America, Wells Fargo and Citigroup plan to dance around the issue — judging from their prepared remarks — Lowman cut right to it: borrowers don’t deserve it.”
There it is, FBs. Time to exercise strategic default and leave these banks holding the bag for loans they never should have made in the first place.
Which of course the Fed will reimburse Chase for any losses….Rules are Rules..no exception!!!!
—————————————
There it is, FBs. Time to exercise strategic default and leave these banks holding the bag for loans they never should have made in the first place.
I loved reading some of the mildly testy exchanges yesterday. It really took the blog back to it’s roots showing some viewing the situation with caution and some viewing the situation with hope and frustration.
I’m a renter who sold out in 2004 and moved because wife’s job was relocated. At first renting was not to my taste but within six months I found I liked it; no added costs to rent, added $25K plus per year to savings. Yes, we would like to buy but, and that’s a big but I’m stuck on the house buying values in existence since the 60’s, 70’s and 80’s. I expect any house in the $200K range to be solid, good location, and turn key. I don’t want to be levied with high taxes or a deteriorating neighborhood in the future. Nor do I want water rationing. I will not go out bidding against others just to buy when the future holds the likelyhood of lower pricing in neighborhoods whose futures cannot be predicted to remain solid. I will not buy a house that I don’t like the flow of. Just call me patient. I’ve shifted my impatience from housing to the war on savers.
Agreed. The blog is really good stuff lately.
It’s been picking up.
I notice that it always gets exciting around market ‘inflection points’.
Did things get a little testicular on the blog yesterday? Sheesh, sorry I missed all the fun.
Nothing big. PB told Muggy he was nuts to buy now so Muggy exiled him to rent among violent sex-offenders for the rest of his miserable existence.
+1 that about sums it up. Today’s addition piles on with Suzanne.
Thanks for the chuckle
I am doing my best to continue the fun today. For instance, I just posted (yet another) link to the infamous “Suzanne Researched This” commercial; stay tuned above.
College Graduates Struggling To Obtain Personal Loans
22% of young people report having been turned down for traditional personal loans within the past year (I-Newswire) April 12, 2010
Young people, including recent college graduates are struggling more and more in the current economy. The average overall rate of unemployment, at 31 weeks, is at its highest level since the end of World War Two. There were a total of 2.3 million unemployed college graduates in March 2010, 1.45 million more than in March 2007, with heavy layoffs in white-collar sectors such as finance.
According to a February 2010 survey conducted by FindLaw.com, a legal marketing and information site, borrowers who have had little opportunity to build up their credit history are struggling when attempting to get personal loans or qualify for credit cards. More than one in five (22%) people between the ages of 18 and 34 have been refused a mortgage, personal loan or credit card within the last year. That’s more than twice the percentage of any other age group. Young people are four times more likely to report that they were turned down for a personal loan than are people over the age of 55.
More specifically, 4% of survey respondents state that they have been turned down for a mortgage, a home equity loan, a personal loan, car loan, or a student loan within the past year. Of those surveyed, 2% have been turned down for mortgage refinancing or a small business loan and 1% for a home improvement loan. The numbers shoot up however, when it comes to credit cards. A significant 15% of those surveyed were turned down when they applied for a credit card in the last year.
More young people have been turning to non-traditional lenders for personal loans. While banks – the traditional source of credit have struggled and sometimes failed altogether - credit unions, small banks, private money lenders and finance companies often still have the ability to make loans and be more flexible in the approval process.
The “Bank of Mom and Dad” is often closing as well. Young people are not alone in experiencing financial difficulty in the current economy. Many families, especially those classified as “upper-middle-class professionals,” are finding themselves suddenly downwardly mobile. While in the past two decades, families used rising incomes, stock market returns and rising home values to help pay for college and to help kids get started in their lives and careers, pay cuts and layoffs in almost every sector of the national economy, coupled with low returns (or even losses) from investments mean that many families find themselves unable to financially assist their children, at a time when they often need a financial helping hand more than ever.
This may be bad news for the economy, but not necessarily a bad thing for the would-be borrowers. Learning to live within their means in their twenties will pay handsomely later on in life.
If you make less than 24K, there is no “means.”
Anything below 20K is poverty.
But I still don’t feel sorry for them. They are too young to be getting any kind of loans except for a used car.
I fully expect my pups to come back to the nest when the time comes to jump start their careers.
My 25 YO daughter had an interesting perspective while she was struggling to get her career moving. She graduated in 2008 (January) and noted that it had been much easier for those that graduated a few years ahead of her to get jobs, but those people also tended to jump into the “gotta buy now” RE market, and consequently were very upside down in many cases.
Fortunately, she was able to land a decent paying job with benes and is not the least bit concerned with buying RE before she is priced out of the market. So, theres good an bad in every situation.
Survey: Homeowners make sacrifices in tough economy, but investor demand is up.
MIAMI (AP) — More than two thirds of Americans who’ve been unable to sell their home and buy one that better fits their needs have cut back on household expenses such as food, entertainment and clothing in order to pay their mortgage, a survey released Tuesday shows.
Homeowners who have fallen on financial hard times have made other sacrifices and lifestyle changes: About a third have downsized to a smaller home or delayed expanding their family as planned.
And, a quarter of homeowners who want to sell their current home and buy another say they need to make the move in order to lower their monthly expenses due to financial problems.
The survey, conducted for Move Inc., found wide-ranging concerns about the financial condition of homeowners in a challenging economy, but also unearthed evidence of increased demand among investors in residential real estate.
“Concerns around employment and their overall economic situation are causing many people to wait until the economy improves before they commit to one of the largest purchases they’ll most likely make in their lives,” said Errol Samuelson, chief revenue officer for Move, which runs the Realtor.com and Move.com Web sites.
A stronger housing market will be an important part of the nation’s economic recovery. As home sales and prices rise, consumer optimism usually follows suit, leading homeowners to feel wealthier and make them more comfortable spending.
Despite economic concerns, investor interest in the housing market is growing, according to the survey.
“A stronger housing market will be an important part of the nation’s economic recovery. As home sales and prices rise, consumer optimism usually follows suit, leading homeowners to feel wealthier and make them more comfortable spending.
“Despite economic concerns, investor interest in the housing market is growing, according to the survey.”
Love the NAR! They are the folks that are willingly spending their own money promoting the idea that real estate is the place to put ones’ money.
True Americans love and support the NAR.
(snort)
“The survey, conducted for Move Inc.”
Move Inc. is where David Lereah, the former Chief Economist and Senior VP of the National Association of Realtors (NAR), went after he left his NAR position. Now he’s a soloist. They are in my area, and seem to be laying off iirc.
I’m looking on re-al-TOR dot com, and I’m seeing lots of late 70’s condo conversion 2/1’s in the $175K - $200K range. But surprisingly, there are also about a dozen 2/1 and some older 3/1 SFH in the same $175K - $200K range. These are well within my price range.
I’m sure these places are near-teardowns, but still, this is the bubbly DC burbs, the land of job security. I guess some things are starting to pop. I’ll give it a little more time.
Your post made me go look up the condo that I sold in early 2007 inside the beltway on the “reliable as a random number generator,” zillow. Down a whopping 5%.
I would never buy anything built in the 70s.
Aluminum wiring. Cheap fixtures. Poor insulation. Poor framing.
Uh uh, no way. Not without a complete gut out.
I would never buy anything built in the 70s.
My house in Austin was built in ‘75. It was a solid house, and had copper wiring rather than aluminum.
Yeah, it might vary from region to region, but houses built in the 70s around here (Lexington KY) are built very well compared to later years. Solid doors, hardwood under most wall-to-wall carpets, good wiring and insulation. They started building them more shoddily in the 80s, but even those are primo compared to the shite they pumped out in the last 20 years.
Several builders/contractors I know around here say that the best years for quality home construction were 1925 to 1975. (Personally, when I lived in Austin, I thought almost everything was poorly built. But other than that, it was a great town;)
It not only depends on region, but can vary from county to county and sometime town to town.
But the 70s introduced the above cheap materials.
My last house was built in the early 60s. One solid SOB except it needed the slab leveled, but we could have gone years without it being a problem. I think it had one level job and one new roof since it was built.
Not only town-to-town, but neighborhood-to-neighborhood (specifically - what builder, in the case of spec homes - which were a lot less common back then)
BAC looking at a 600% increase in REOs by the end of the year?!!!
http://blog.oregonlive.com/frontporch/2010/04/2_big_banks_forecast_major_ris.html
Bank of America, which currently forecloses on 7,500 homes every month will see that number rise to 45,000 by December 2010 as one senior executive pointed out at a recent trade show. However, a spokesman for BofA told HousingWire, he could not confirm the numbers and they do not reflect a public position of the bank.
JPMorgan Chase ,,, expects the amount of real estate owned (REO) properties in its portfolio to reach between 33,000 to 45,000 in Q410. By comparison, in Q409, REO inventories were at 23,100.
Well, we have been waiting to see who cracks first. Maybe this is a sign? That happens and they won’t be able to slash each other’s throats fast enough.
One senior executive might be getting a pink slip.
“a spokesman for BofA told HousingWire, he could not confirm the numbers and they do not reflect a public position of the bank”
That “public position” being “extend and pretend”?
Top ex-WaMu executives come before Congress Senior execs of fallen WaMu come before Congress as investigators allege widespread fraud
WASHINGTON (AP) — Former senior executives of mortgage lender Washington Mutual, the biggest U.S. bank in history to fail, are appearing before Congress on Tuesday for the first time since the bank’s September 2008 collapse.
Their testimony follows an 18-month investigation by a Senate panel that found fraud throughout the bank’s lending operations and failure by management to stem the deception despite internal probes.
WaMu’s pay system rewarded loan officers for the volume and speed of the subprime mortgage loans they closed on. Extra bonuses even went to loan officers who overcharged borrowers on their loans or levied stiff penalties for prepayment, according to the report being released by the investigative panel of the Senate Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs Committee.
Testifying at a hearing of the subcommittee Tuesday are former Washington Mutual CEO Kerry Killinger, ex-President and Chief Operating Officer Stephen Rotella, and David Schneider, who was the highest-ranking executive in the bank’s home lending operation. Two former chief risk officers and an internal auditor are also due to appear.
Sen. Carl Levin, D-Mich., the subcommittee chairman, said Monday the panel won’t decide until after the hearings on Tuesday and Friday whether to make a formal referral to the Justice Department for possible criminal prosecution. Justice, the FBI and the Securities and Exchange Commission opened investigations into Washington Mutual soon after its collapse in the fall of 2008 at the height of the financial crisis.
The new report by the Senate investigators said the top WaMu producers, loan officers and sales executives who made high-risk loans or packaged them into securities for sale to Wall Street, were eligible for the bank’s President’s Club, with trips to swank resorts — like Maui in 2005.
Fueled by the housing boom, Seattle-based Washington Mutual’s sales to investors of packaged subprime mortgage securities leapt from $2.5 billion in 2000 to $29 billion in 2006. The 119-year-old thrift, with $307 billion in assets, failed in September 2008. It was sold for $1.9 billion to JPMorgan Chase & Co. in a deal brokered by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp.
WaMu was one of the biggest makers of so-called “option ARM” mortgages, which allowed borrowers to make payments so low that loan debt actually increased every month.
The Senate subcommittee investigated the Washington Mutual failure for a year and a half. It focused on the thrift as a case study for the financial crisis that brought the recession and the loss of jobs or homes for millions of Americans.
Senior executives of the bank were aware of the prevalence of fraud, the Senate investigators found.
Washington Mutual “was one of the worst,” Levin told reporters Monday. “This was a Main Street bank that got taken in by these Wall Street profits that were offered to it.”
The investors who bought the mortgage securities from Washington Mutual weren’t informed of the fraudulent practices, the Senate investigators found. WaMu “dumped the polluted water” of toxic mortgage securities into the stream of the U.S. financial system, Levin said.
In some cases, sales associates in WaMu offices in California fabricated loan documents, cutting and pasting false names on borrowers’ bank statements. The company’s own probe in 2005, three years before the bank collapsed, found that two top producing offices — in Downey and Montebello, Calif. — had levels of fraud exceeding 58 percent and 83 percent of the loans. Employees violated the bank’s policies on verifying borrowers’ qualifications and reviewing loans.
In an episode in 2007, some of WaMu’s mortgages were viewed as so suspect by American International Group Inc. that it refused to insure them and complained to both California and federal regulators, according to the Senate investigators. AIG, one of the world’s largest insurance companies, itself nearly collapsed in the fall of 2008 and received about $180 billion in bailout aid from the government.
Washington Mutual was repeatedly criticized over the years by its internal auditors and federal regulators for sloppy lending that resulted in high default rates by borrowers, according to the report. Violations were so serious that in 2007, Washington Mutual closed its big affiliate Long Beach Mortgage Co. as a separate entity and took over its subprime lending operations.
In late 2006, Washington Mutual’s primary regulator, the U.S. Office of Thrift Supervision, allowed the bank an additional year to comply with new, stricter guidelines for issuing subprime loans.
According to an internal bank e-mail cited in the report, Washington Mutual would have lost about a third of the volume of its subprime loans if it applied the stricter requirements.
Jennifer Zuccarelli, a spokeswoman for JPMorgan Chase, declined to comment Monday on the subcommittee report.
Calling Polly…any chance of arrests???????????
had levels of fraud exceeding 58 percent and 83 percent of the loans
LOL, hardly. There’ll be some huffing and puffing and blow-harding during the hearings, but nothing will happen. Heck, maybe even one of these WaMu guys will be named as Geithner’s replacement.
These Republicrats are all bought and paid for by Wall Street. They’ll deliver stern lectures, while their grotesquely overpaid masters try to look contrite for the cameras and conceal their smirks as they daydream about how they’ll be spending their taxpayer-funded bonuses. And how big a cut they’ll need next year to keep their pet politicians housebroken and on the take.
We’ve seen the circus, now bring on the bread.
I just get chills watching justice catch up with true villains in our modern government. You can’t get anything sneaky past our Congress, no way!
Yep a simple way for our congressmen to determine if these CEO’s really didn’t see it coming would be to take a look at their personal investments from 2006 forward.
My guess is that they look a lot like Anthony Mozillo (ie selling housing stock hand over fist) and Hank Paulson (selling bank stock hand over fist and moving into treasuries) or at the height of the crash with the benefit of insider information they might look like the NY FED officer who purchased a boatload of GS stock.
Peggy Noonan’s paraphrase of Congressional testimony last week:
“Let’s be real. This is what happened the past 10 years. You, for political reasons, both Republicans and Democrats, finagled the mortgage system so that people who make, like, zero dollars a year were given mortgages for $600,000 houses. You got to run around and crow about how under your watch everyone became a homeowner. You shook down the taxpayer and hoped for the best.”
.”Democrats did it because they thought it would make everyone Democrats: ‘Look what I give you!’ Republicans did it because they thought it would make everyone Republicans: ‘I’m a homeowner, I’ve got a stake, don’t raise my property taxes, get off my lawn!’ And Wall Street? We went to town, baby. We bundled the mortgages and sold them to fools, or we held them, called them assets, and made believe everyone would pay their mortgage. As if we cared. We invented financial instruments so complicated no one, even the people who sold them, understood what they were.
“You’re finaglers and we’re finaglers. I play for dollars, you play for votes. In our own ways we’re all thieves. We would be called desperadoes if we weren’t so boring, so utterly banal in our soft-jawed, full-jowled selfishness. If there were any justice, we’d be forced to duel, with the peasants of America holding our cloaks. Only we’d both make sure we missed, wouldn’t we?”
She nailed it.
“You’re finaglers and we’re finaglers. I play for dollars, you play for votes. In our own ways we’re all thieves.”
Stop the presses. That is a Wall Street pardon by a major columnist if ever there was one.
Someone’s going to get really yelled at on TV and that will teach them.
Good thing I finishing drinking my smoothie first. Otherwise, Rio would owe me a new keyboard and monitor.
Wouldn’t arresting WaMu officers who committed massive fraud naturally lead to an effort to figure out which Congressmen were in their back pockets?
Do you mean “Friends of Angelo?” such as Christopher Dodd?
I don’t know that Christopher Dodd ever received any perks from Angelo Mozilo; what gives you that idea?
Dodd = scumbag douche bag
Hey, watch it. You just insulted scumbag douche bags.
Wouldn’t arresting WaMu officers who committed massive fraud naturally lead to an effort to figure out which Congressmen were in their back pockets?
Exactly. That’s the whole problem with the constant calls for more regulation of banks. Ultimately, you’re asking the government to regulate itself, which is a contradiction in terms.
The only real solution is a set of constitutional amendments to limit the powers of government, and by extension those of the banks.
I don’t know. How about this scenario?
-WaMu/Banksters charged by Justice Department
-WaMu guys narc out politicians
-Politicians charged by Justice Department
Just like a Mob investigation. All it needs is someone with some sack at the Justice Department.
Just like a Mob investigation. All it needs is someone with some sack at the Justice Department.
Ah - but therein lies the problem. Who’s the head of the DOJ? The Attorney General. And the current Attorney General just happens to have been the senior legal adviser for the campaign of the current president… a campaign whose #2 funding source was… (drum roll)… Goldman Sachs, with JPM and Citi not far behind.
In WaMu’s case I don’t see significant contributions to Obama, but there are to Barney Frank.
Thank god the Bush admin DOJ was on the job.
Oh wait…
You do realize, Eco, that an investigation like that would probably lead to the saviors doorstep.
Bush will probably skate cause the family was too dang rich with oil money.
Thank god the Bush admin DOJ was on the job.
Oh wait…
Unfortunately the current administration is the one that’s in office, and thus the only one that can bring about said justice. I venture the same would have been true of the Bush admin, as you say, but they only had a few months left in office after the s*** went down - not nearly long enough to do anything. Not that they would have.
It would have been nice to have had a true sea change, such that the current administration would make heads roll. But alas - politically-expedient conflict of interest says otherwise.
That’s what happens when you don’t have term limits.
(Speaking of Wall Street terms of office, not DC terms of office.)
“That’s the whole problem with the constant calls for more regulation of banks.”
And that’s the likely the whole reason for wanting to push lots more bank regulatory responsibility onto the Fed — nobody stonewalls better!
The Bush admin gutted every single regulatory agency and instructed the DOJ and SEC specifically to look the other way when it came to corporate malfeasance.
yes.
Yes. This has the possibility of arrests. No guarantee, but there is a good chance. I’m not that familiar with bank regulations, but the easiest case to prove would be if the fraudulent numbers were disclosed in mandatory reports to their federal regulator. Lying to the feds is a bad idea. They also may have lied to the ratings agency that graded the securities. Not sure if that is a crime, but it might be. And there could be Sarbanes-Oxley issues if they also provided the false documents to their auditor.
Still doesn’t mean you are going to get to prosecute the people who set up the inevitable implosion of the system. This is like jailing the chess pieces when you really want to prosecute the inventor of the game.
“Their testomony follows an 18-month investigation by a Senate panel that found fraud throughout the banks lending operations and failure by management to stem the deception despite internal probes.”
After an 18-month investigation a Senate panel found fraud at WaMu.
Lol.
Captain Renault: I’m shocked, shocked to find that gambling is going on in here!
[a croupier hands Renault a pile of money]
Croupier: Your winnings, sir.
Casablanca (1942)
The most ridiculous excuse ever: “No one saw the crisis coming”
Followed by: “you need closure…”
Followed by: “you need campaign contributions to get elected…”
Followed by: “If those guys go to jail and they figure out they sent me campaign contributions, what then?”
Oh boy! I bet congress is really going to get tough with these guys! I hope they give them some really stern looks. That will put them in their place.
Luckily WaMu was the only bank participating in this sort of thing. All the other banks were perfect little angels, so no need to investigate them. No need at all.
* APRIL 13, 2010, 10:52 A.M. ET
Ex-WaMu Exec Killinger Complains Of ‘Too Clubby To Fail’ Firms
By Patrick Yoest
Of DOW JONES NEWSWIRES
WASHINGTON (Dow Jones)–Former Washington Mutual chief executive Kerry Killinger on Tuesday blamed federal regulators and an insular Wall Street culture for the demise of the bank, saying that firms that were “too clubby to fail” were protected during the financial crisis in 2008.
Killinger, who is set to testify before the Senate Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs Committee’s investigating panel, in prepared testimony complained of “unfair treatment” of Washington Mutual, the largest bank failure in U.S. history in 2008, when it was seized and sold to JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM).
Killinger argued that the seizure “was unnecessary” and said the company “should have been given a chance to work through the crisis.” Regulators didn’t give Washington Mutual benefits afforded to other banks in crisis, Killinger said, pointing to injections of capital through the Treasury Department’s Troubled Asset Relief Program, Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. guarantees and Federal Reserve injections of liquidity.
Similarly, Killinger said, Washington Mutual was excluded from “hundreds of meetings and telephone calls between Wall Street executives and policy leaders that ultimately determined winners and losers in this financial crisis.”
“For those that were part of the inner circle and were ‘too clubby to fail,’ the benefits were obvious,” Killinger said. “For those outside the club, the penalty was severe.”
…
When the going gets tough, you got too be connected to the right circles, not the BIGFISH. According to C-Span on Sep 26 2008 Alan H. Fishman was paid 19 million for three weeks with the co.
Nothing “fishy” there, eh?
BAE announces 180 new layoffs ~ Business Courier of Cincinnati
BAE Systems in Butler County said it will eliminate another 180 jobs due to long-term defense contracts that are ending.
The layoffs are effective Tuesday, BAE said in a statement.
“We recognize and understand the impact decisions like this have on our employees, their families and the communities where we live and work,” said Don Dutton, vice president of security and survivability for BAE, in the statement. “While we regret the need to reduce unemployment, adjusting our business to challenges now, will better position us for consistent growth in the future.”
In March BAE announced two separate layoffs at its Fairfield plant, totaling about 200, most of which were temporary workers. Those took place after BAE lost a contract to produce armored vehicles for the U.S. Army and saw a decrease in orders for Humvee armoring kits.
Whew! I thought for a second that a bank laid somebody off, but I misread the acronym. Thank god its just a company that makes an actual product sending workers away and not a real producer like a bank.
Silly me, it sounds like the government is trying to save money…
Yea, this place is not too far from where I work.
They had a major contract to provide armourment for HumVees and other military equipment, and really ramped up employment over the past few years. Now it’s unwinding.
It would seem BAE is slowly, but systematically losing American contracts.
For those of you who don’t know who BAE is, they are Britain’s largest defense corporation… and corrupt as hell.
Reminder:
1. an illusion of understanding of current events,
2. a retrospective distortion of historical events,
3. an overestimation of factual information, combined with an overvalue of the intellectual elite.
Hmm…
Remember, “Suzanne Researched It.”
New handle for you: PILIAVDBTRB
Professor “I live in a van down by the river” Bear
Like Casey?
“Like Casey?”
Naw, like Matt Foley, Motivational Speaker.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZsTTvKWPZGw
There are no rivers in San Diego County, at least nothing you east coasters would recongnize as a river.
So it would be more like:
I live in a van down by the creek
I live in a van down by the storm drainage canal
And to further make this SD true:
I live in an old Honda Civic down by the beach.
Where are the personal attack police? Please arrest Smuggy when you get a chance. And his real-estate crazed wife.
I would like to point out that the bubble’s new spark of life is highly in evidence right here on the blog. All I had to do to get labeled a bully was to dare to question Muggy’s wisdom in deciding now was a good time to buy in FL, in the face of the perplexing realization that bidding wars were back.
’nuff said.
Ummm, you actually belittled him. Get off your high horse.
Get off your high horse.
+1
Muggy never said it was a good time to buy in Florida, only that he found a deal he may be able to live with, given the tradeoffs of his unique and personal situation.
Get over it, PB.
+1
Muggy is more than aware of the potential pitfalls of his decision.
Not only that, but Suzanne Researched It!
Um, you may have actually earned that one a long time ago. I mean I just don’t think anyone guards and defends the hbb doctrine like you do. The majority take kind of a take what you want and leave the rest approach. IE, I care about people here in that I want the best for people who’ve helped me out. But if someone goes to the other side, it really doesn’t affect me at all. I can still go on and enjoy my day just fine.
That being said, I enjoy your prolific posts and look forward to the daily readings. Btw, PB, what type of a job allows one to post all day long like you do? I’ve come to wonder if we’re part of some collegiate classroom discussions or fodder for some soon to be released book. Are our discussions part of market research? Just can’t figure it out. If you do have an employer, he’s obviously blessed your surftime.
Well, it is almost 7p where I am, and most of my posts today were before 7a my time. If that qualifies as “surf time,” then I guess I need to find a new employer.
Did y’all see where hidden in the HC Bill is a extra 3.4 % tax on all real estate sold ? So if you owe $500,000 but short sale for $400,00 you owe the Fed $15,000. Pelosi was right, you will just have to wait to see what is in it !!!
Is that 3.4% tax a tax on “real estate sold” (as in capital gains tax), or a tax on forgiven debt? They’re two different things.
Didn’t see that but I saw that it might be read as kicking congresscritters off of Federal Employee health plans 3 weeks ago.
HC Bill is a extra 3.4 % tax on all real estate sold ?
Can someone qualify this please…Is this true ??
Ann Gogh - got a source for this info? I don’t see it, from a google search. All I see is a mention of elimination of the Federal Family Education Loan Program (FFEL), which provided student loans at 3.4% for a period.
Second Mortgages Vex Borrowers
April 13, 2010 ~ WSJ
After losing her condo in San Diego to foreclosure last year, Charissa Kolich thought that at least she was free of mortgage bills.
But Wells Fargo & Co. (NYSE: WFC - News), which holds a home-equity loan made five years ago to Ms. Kolich, last month filed a lawsuit against her in the Superior Court of California, San Diego County, seeking to collect the nearly $72,000 it said she still owed on that second mortgage. “This was all kind of a shock,” says Ms. Kolich, a food-service administrator recently diagnosed with inoperable brain cancer.
Banks are coming under increasing political pressure to write off or at least write down second-lien and other junior mortgages as a way to help borrowers keep their homes or extract themselves from heavy debt. As the Wells Fargo suit shows, however, banks often are reluctant to give up on loans when they see a chance of recovering all or part of their money.
This issue will be the focus of a hearing Tuesday by the House Financial Services Committee in Washington. Panel members are due to quiz executives from Wells Fargo, Bank of America Corp. (NYSE: BAC - News), Citigroup Inc. (NYSE: C - News) and J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. about their junior-lien mortgage policies.
Why do junior-lien mortgages matter? The $1 trillion of junior-lien mortgages outstanding in the U.S. at the end of 2009 added up to only about 10% of total home-mortgage debt, according to Federal Reserve data. But many banks have large holdings of these junior liens. Among borrowers whose first mortgages were packaged into so-called private-label securities (those not backed by any government entity), about half also have junior-lien loans, according to mortgage-bond trader Amherst Securities.
Those junior liens now represent one of the trickiest obstacles to efforts to get distressed borrowers back on their feet. Borrowers who negotiated lower payments on their first mortgages often find they are overwhelmed by payments on second mortgages and other debts.
Sounds like nothing a massive bailout by taxpayers can’t fix. We’ll make those banks’ bad investments whole, dont you worry.
“. . . . recently diagnosed with inoperable brain cancer” I feel bad for her and hope she has good insurance, but to make such statements is blatantly unfair and meant only to enrage unsophisticated readers. Is there really an expectation that companies should forgive your debts if something bad happens to you? Let’s not confuse business with charity or insurance. Do people really want prices to go up so that businesses can cover the costs of buying hedges against the risk that something bad may happen to their customers? I am not heartless, but I just dont understand what people that write these stories expect. Just seems they throw it in to get an unwarranted reaction.
Another way of looking it is that this lady has something much bigger to worry about than a stinkin second mortgage, foreclosure or bankrupcy.
Yeah…..what does her brain tumor have to do with the fact that she owes $72000 on a second?
If giving sick people a complete pass on their outstanding balances becomes SOP, next thing you will see is banks demanding loan applicants take physicals before they approve loans.
“. . . . recently diagnosed with inoperable brain cancer” I feel bad for her and hope she has good insurance,
I hope she has good health insurance too.
And America is the only western, industrialized country in the world who’s citizens need to hope that kind of thing.
And America is the only western, industrialized country in the world who’s citizens need to hope that kind of thing.
Seconded.
Right. In any other western, industrialized country in the world, her inoperable brain cancer would be cured lickety-split!
Right. In any other western, industrialized country in the world, her inoperable brain cancer would be cured lickety-split!
You’re missing the point. What is the hope being expressed for?
I feel bad for her and hope she has good insurance,
I think the diagnosis says that the bank will be hard pressed to collect. I would expect the prognosis on inoperable brain cancer to be really bad. And treatment is likely to chew up whatever assets she has left, so there is not likely to be much of an estate to collect from either.
“. . . . recently diagnosed with inoperable brain cancer” I feel bad for her and hope she has good insurance, but to make such statements is blatantly unfair and meant only to enrage unsophisticated readers. Is there really an expectation that companies should forgive your debts if something bad happens to you? Let’s not confuse business with charity or insurance. Do people really want prices to go up so that businesses can cover the costs of buying hedges against the risk that something bad may happen to their customers? I am not heartless, but I just dont understand what people that write these stories expect. Just seems they throw it in to get an unwarranted reaction.
Death is about as serious as it gets, Natalie. Everything else is nothing but childish games in comparison.
a townhouse in the neigborhood were i rent (an identical townhouse) was listed a week ago for $730k…a sale is pending.
i rent the same type for $ 2,500 a month.
i live in northern virginia. vienna, va to be exact.
That is pretty high. Here you could buy a place that rents for that for only 600k. Mortgage, taxes, insurance, and HOA would be north of 4.5k a month.
where is here? if you don’t mind me asking.
im in philly
Whoo Hoo my utterly sharp RE investment home is losing $2000 a month I hope i can make it up on the price…
I grew up there. My parents paid $200k for a large house back in the late 70s (and needed assistance from their parents to do it). I remember in the 80s when the house down the street — a giant mansion complete with waterfall — sold for $1 million to a lawyer couple. We were in awe.
But… they won’t be “throwing money away” on rent!
Wow, you can buy a nice townhouse out here for 200K.
http://www.realtor.com/realestateandhomes-detail/4064-Don-Fox-Cir_Loveland_CO_80537_1116649088
And there are cheaper ones too.
A townhouse for $730k ?? Okay…Whats the job driver there ??
Around the beltway? Pig farming.
A townhouse for $730k ?? Okay…Whats the job driver there ??
In Vienna, VA ? You are kidding, right ? It is a suburb of Washington DC.
Pig farming ?? Vienna, VA ?? Job Driver ??
Now I got it…Vienna Sausages….
come on down 66 a bit & get one like mine in Centreville for $1,000.00 per Month
For the first time in 18 months the DOW opened this morning above 11,000. Meanwhile, The National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) said its monthly index of small business optimism fell again in March for the 18th consecutive month.
“I think there’s a huge disconnect between the stock market and the real economy,” says Lynn Tilton, founder and CEO of private equity firm Patriarch Partners. With a portfolio of more than 70 small and mid-sized businesses, many of them manufacturing companies, Tilton has a strong understanding of Main Street. Having previously held varied positions at a number of Wall Street firms, including Goldman, Oppenheimer and Morgan Stanley, she also understands that world.
Liquidity is plentiful on Wall Street but small and mid-sized businesses are still dealing with a “huge credit crisis,” she tells Aaron and Henry in the accompanying clip. “If we didn’t lend to our own [portfolio] companies we’d be in huge trouble.”
The NFIB survey backs that assertion; two key components, ‘Plan to Hire’ and ‘Increased Capital Spending,’ fell.
Tilton points to the growing reliance on trading on Wall Street as a cause of the problems with the ‘real economy.’ The percentage of business from traditional businesses like IPOs, M&A and debt offerings — which support broader economic activity — are shrinking, she notes, while revenue from proprietary trading grows, benefiting few beyond the trading floor.
Proprietary trading = market manipulation
GS admitted this when a prior employee was accused of stealing their trading software. They said in the wrong hands it could be used to manipulate markets. Of course GS would never do that on their own.
The National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB)
I was a member of the NFIB for years until I realized their policies and lobbying actually helped large corporations more than small businesses. And since large corporations don’t really appreciate small businesses, I quit.
When I told the NFIB rep why I was quitting, he looked at me like I’d just told him house prices could come down someday.
I seem to recall reading that NFIB dues help to pay for the top man/woman’s chauffeured limo. Which is why I’ve never joined. I run my own indie-biz on a slender shoestring, so I tend to be rather sensitive to this sort of thing.
And I’ll second Rio’s sentiments on large corps not really appreciating small biz. I’ve lived that experience many times.
Sentiment?
Fact.
index of small business optimism fell again in March for the 18th consecutive month ??
And will continue to fall IMO…No margin in most small businesses anymore that is, unless you are cheating and the coming VAT will take care of that…
Liquidity is plentiful on Wall Street but small and mid-sized businesses are still dealing with a “huge credit crisis,” she tells Aaron and Henry in the accompanying clip. “If we didn’t lend to our own [portfolio] companies we’d be in huge trouble.”
So only ’small businesses’ owned by larger businesses will make it. How convenient…
The case for more stimulus $
Spending may be needed to stave off “double-dip”
By Peter Coy MSNBC ~ April 13, 2010
President Barack Obama would have been forgiven a few high-fives April 2 after the Labor Department announced the U.S. economy generated 162,000 jobs in March. Instead he was cautious.
At a speech in Charlotte, N.C., Obama did say, “We are beginning to turn the corner,” then added that the job numbers “leave us with a lot more work to do.” Chief economic adviser Christina Romer was even more circumspect, issuing a statement that said, “the American labor market remains severely distressed.” And over the weekend, National Economic Council Director Larry Summers drove the point home on CNN, saying, “We’ve got a long way to go.”
It’s not modesty, false or otherwise, that’s making the Obama administration so reticent. It’s reality. With 10 million Americans out of work, Obama’s team knows that the employment growth in March (a quarter of which was driven by the hiring of federal Census workers) actually makes its mission over the next year or two more difficult.
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Here’s why: The positive jobs report reduces the political urgency for fixing the U.S. economy. If voters and lawmakers decide the economy is healing on its own, it becomes harder to justify more infrastructure spending, aid to stressed states, extended unemployment insurance and the like. Even before the report, the administration had begun to focus on smallish fixes like the $14 billion HIRE Act, which encourages hiring of the unemployed, and new measures to discourage foreclosures. “Stimulus has become a dirty word in Washington,” says Augustine Faucher, macroeconomics director of Moody’s Economy.com.
That’s understandable, but it could be a problem if the economy begins to sputter.
Small businesses don’t see recovery panning out: NFIB
Sales, hiring and capital spending remain very weak, trade group says
WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) — U.S. small-business owners were more pessimistic in March than in February, according to a survey of companies released Tuesday by the National Federation of Independent Businesses.
The NFIB’s index fell to an eight-month low of 86.8 from 88, with only one of 10 components improving. The index has been below 90 for 18 consecutive months now, having hit a cyclical low of 81 in March 2009.
‘This is another piece of evidence suggesting that the official payroll data are overstating the degree of improvement seen in recent months.’
“Something isn’t sitting well with small-business owners,” said Bill Dunkelberg, chief economist for the small-business lobbying group. “Poor sales and uncertainty continue to overwhelm any other good news about the economy.” Read the full release on the NFIB’s Web site.
The survey “suggests the small-business sector is still contracting, even as the economy as whole is expanding,” wrote Ian Shepherdson, chief domestic economist for High Frequency Economics.
“Economic recovery has benefitted larger businesses more than smaller ones,” wrote John Ryding and Conrad DeQuadros, economists for RDQ Economics.
Indeed, surveys of larger companies show much more optimism about the economy.
Indeed, surveys of larger companies show much more optimism about the economy.
I guess its easy to be bullish when you can fire most of your American employees and replaced them with super low paid 3rd worlders. Its hard for Joe’s Bicycle shop to do that on Main St.
Who needs small businesses when you have WalMart and MegaBank?
Consumer Reports Says ‘Don’t Buy’ Unsafe Lexus GX460 (AP)
Consumer Reports has given the Lexus GX460 a rare “Don’t Buy” warning, saying a problem that occurred during routine handling tests could lead the SUV to roll over in real-world driving.
NEW YORK — Consumer Reports has given the Lexus GX460 a rare “Don’t Buy” warning, saying a problem that occurred during routine handling tests could lead the SUV to roll over in real-world driving.
In the latest blow to Toyota’s reputation, the magazine said that during a test of the vehicle’s performance during unusual turns, the rear of the vehicle slid until it was nearly sideways before the electronic stability control system kicked in.
Consumer Reports said in real-world driving, such a scenario could cause a rollover accident. As a result, the magazine has given the seven-seat SUV a “Don’t Buy: Safety Risk” label until the problem is fixed.
Being that they cost $50K I don’t think that I will ever even consider buying one.
Anybody who buys a ‘luxury’ SUV should get a boot to the head. It’s like the Range Rovers that will never, ever rove a range. What a joke.
Trek 7.7 with a new Salsa back rim is how I roll. Taste it, Big Oil.
MrBubble
My “taste it, big oil” ride is an old Cannondale mountain bike that’s so homely it’s cute.
I line in the HQ of Big Oil and riding a bike here = sure death.
“…LIVE in…”
Pulte buys 88 Gilbert lots for $5.7M
Phoenix Business Journal April 13, 2010
PulteGroup Inc. announced Monday that it purchased 88 finished lots in Gilbert at the Lyon’s Gate master-planned community located near Higley and Ray roads.
Pulte spokesperson Jacque Petroulakis said PulteGroup purchased the land from an undisclosed group of investors who had bought the land from Orleans Homes in December 2007. Pulte also did not want to disclose the price, but Phoenix Business Journal records show that Pulte paid almost $5.7 million for the lots.
Pulte will build homes ranging in size from 2,400 to 3,500 square feet. No word on when those homes will be up for sale or what the pricing will be.
This is the second major acquisition for Pulte in the Gilbert area.
In October Pulte, along with Meritage Homes and Toll Brothers, collectively purchased 232 finished lots at Stratland Estates in Gilbert for $13.3 million. Pulte received 106 lots, according to trade publication Business Real Estate Weekly.
In Pulte’s announcement about Lyon’s Gate, the company said its Stratland Estates homes will be open for sales in early May.
Sounds to me like Pulte has inside info (wink, wink) from a Corrupt Congress Connection (CCC) about a first-time homebuyer tax-credit extension. 2400sft my a$$.
Oh, it’s gonna happen.
I heard someone talking on TV about the same thing. The extension has a bi-partisan support and the President is fully behind it.
“Oh, it’s gonna happen”.
I don’t think it would surprise a soul if/when they extend the tax credit. I haven’t read or heard anything about it, yet.
I would like to see any data on what real effect it’s had.
I would like to see any data on what real effect it’s had.
Ask and ye shall receive.
(Well - at least that’s the effect of tax credits + Fed MBS purchases + ZIRP + foreclosure moratoriums + etc. etc. that all mostly came to a head in 2009. It is certainly not the result of a true reduction in supply, since the inventory of unoccupied homes is still at or near record highs.)
(Well - at least that’s the effect of tax credits + Fed MBS purchases + ZIRP + foreclosure moratoriums + etc. etc)
Thanks!
I read a report some months ago that stated there has been a good bit of fraud involved with the 8k credit. Not sure exactly what type of fraud or how it’s done. I do know if it can be done it will be.
It’s a credit and can’t be used toward a down payment.
It’s a credit and can’t be used toward a down payment.
I think technically maybe it can’t, but logistically I’m sure it’s quite easy to do, if nothing else via a simple bridge loan or something. There definitely were articles presenting this as very common.
And why not, for that matter? $8k is $8k, regardless of the source.
It’s a credit and can’t be used toward a down payment.
It sure can if you use an FHA loan.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2009/05/29/AR2009052903056.html
“PulteGroup Inc. announced Monday that it purchased 88 finished lots in Gilbert at the Lyon’s Gate master-planned community located near Higley and Ray roads.”
Higley and Ray. Just where you want to be if you never need to go anywhere or do anything except watch and hear aircraft come in and out of Williams-Gateway airfield from time to time.
Where will people work who will pay off this $65K average cost for the lots, plus another $250-400K for the stucco on the lots? We can’t ALL own candle shops, pirate stores, and life-coach franchises.
Where will people work ??
Who’s working…These buyers have the pensions wired directly to there accounts…
Ben I would be interested in your thoughts on this…
Seems like the angle here for Pulte and others is to create a “new community” in building these new homes…All buyers are highly qualified and likely owner occupants…That could be the marketing strategy…
“Where will people work who will pay off this $65K average cost for the lots, plus another $250-400K for the stucco on the lots? We can’t ALL own candle shops, pirate stores, and life-coach franchises.”
How about a shoppe that does all three of these things, sort of a one-stop shop for candles, pirate accessories and life coaching, maybe with a doggie-daycare department in the back.
Hey, don’t steal my thunder. Actually, I haven’t posted this one in a long time:
Ye Olde Pirate Shoppe and Scrapbooking Emporium
I forgot you had patented that one. Now I’ll have to file BK I guess.
The extension would only increase prices if they up the doseage. The $8K is already baked in the cake. Once you’ve become used to a drug you need ever increasing amounts to get a new high. On the other hand, withdrawl is a bitch.
Of course reflating the housing bubble is the worst way to spend money. Simply burning the money would do less harm to our economy.
Cheaper housing would mean people would have more money for other stuff. We could also produce cheaper goods and wouldn’t have to whine about China manipulating their currency. FED keeping interest rates at 0%, who is the manipulator? The sooner our gubermint is broke the better. I am tired of seeing them throwing money away by the billions.
The $8K is already baked in the cake.
You have no idea how many people just don’t get that. I have 2 co-workers ( Both College grads.) closing in their new homes this month. I tried to tell them it’s already baked in the cake, but both of them didn’t listen. All I can say is good luck with new purchases.
Actually its even worse than that. Leverage up the $8K via a 3.5% down FHA (=subprime) loan and at the lower end, house prices are probably $20-30K above where they should be. So the numb nut 1st time buyer is overpaying by about $10-20K after getting the $8K. Sometimes it seems like there’s a sucker born every second.
I just can’t see them making this a permanent fixture. As I said, withdrawl will be a bitch. Then you create a whole bunch of additional underwater owners that will walk.
If We’re Dismantling Too Big To Fail…
… why are we creating a huge international bailout fund?
The Executive Board of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) today approved a ten-fold expansion of the Fund’s New Arrangements to Borrow (NAB) and the transformation of the Fund’s premier standing credit arrangement into a more flexible and effective tool of crisis management. The NAB will be increased by SDR 333.5 billion (about US$500 billion) to SDR 367.5 billion (about US$550 billion), representing a major increase in the resources available for the Fund’s lending to its members.
For a nation that claims to be ending “too big to fail” sticking our people with $100 billion of the cost of this new bailout fund - a fund that we allegedly will never need because we’re going to fix the “too big to fail” problem - is rather interesting, no?
More importantly, what’s the rush?
If the financial system has been “stabilized”, if everything is ok, if the stock market is going up because the economy and financial system is healthy, why does the IMF suddenly need $500 billion, with 1/5th of it, roughly, provided by American tax money?
Or is the little ugly here that they know the problems haven’t been and won’t be fixed, and that at any time - all it takes is a trigger - there will be yet another rush for the exits, and this one no single sovereign government will be able to stop?
(From K. Denninger)
It’s not hyperbole when I say that we’ve been brought almost to the brink of WW3 and everyone is desperately trying to avert it.
Because if there is another collapse any time soon as severe as last year, you can bank on war.
Because if there is another collapse any time soon as severe as last year, you can bank on war.
Between who and who?
We’ve always been at war with Eurasia.
It will line up the new communist/capitalists vs the current capitalist blocks with the usual confusing allies among the rest.
‘Free money’ is stocks’ secret weapon
April 13, 2010:
(Fortune) — Stock-market bulls are hoping the sharp rebound in corporate profits will keep the rally alive, but continued low interest rates might be more important.
Good first-quarter results will certainly help, and profits will be jumping when numbers start rolling in this week. Earnings at S&P 500 companies are expected to rise 34% from their depressed level a year ago. Reports are due from JPMorgan Chase (JPM, Fortune 500), Google (GOOG, Fortune 500) and General Electric (GE, Fortune 500), among many others.
But the real secret weapon is the Federal Reserve’s policy of holding interest rates near zero, which bulls contend will fuel a long-lived rally by forcing investors out of cash accounts gathering next to no interest.
“As long as we remain in this monetary twilight zone, stock prices should continue to rise, and corrections should be short and shallow,” economist Ed Yardeni wrote in a note to clients this week. “The alternative to stocks is to earn zero in the money markets.”
Though it has been 16 months since the Federal Reserve cut its Fed Funds rate to a range of zero to 0.25%, those who expect stocks to extend their gains say many people are only now warming to the idea of jumping back into the market.
Though it has been 16 months since the Federal Reserve cut its Fed Funds rate to a range of zero to 0.25%, those who expect stocks to extend their gains say many people are only now warming to the idea of jumping back into the market.
Sorry, but I’m not one of them. Something about my being more interested in the return OF my money than the return ON my money.
Which means that I’ll keep biding my time in cash.
Layoffs spreading among N.J. public-sector workers
Philly News
They had it all planned out.
Jennifer Beese would give up her $65,000-a-year job as a sales rep and borrow money to go to graduate school. Her dream: to become a teacher.
Her fiance, John Cidoni, would support them on his income as a Lumberton police officer and save money by moving into Beese’s home in Bordentown City.
The couple would marry in June and have their first child next year.
Now New Jersey’s fiscal crisis has thrown their plan off course, as it has for thousands of public and private workers across the region.
Cidoni, 32, was laid off from his police job of seven years at the beginning of the month, along with five other employees, when Lumberton faced a budget deficit.
Beese, 30, is one month away from receiving her teaching certification from Georgian Court University but is concerned about finding a job at a time when many other school districts in the state are considering teacher layoffs.
“There’s nothing more important than safety and security and education,” Cidoni said. “I think those are the pillars of society . . . and I just think it’s a sad state of affairs when those are the people being hit.”
They sure seemed to have everything planned out.
I’ll bet his jaw hit the floor when he got his pink slip.
He is saying: “There’s nothing more important than safety and security and education”
But why am I hearing: “As long as I’ve got mine, I don’t care where the money comes from”?
“But why am I hearing: “As long as I’ve got mine, I don’t care where the money comes from”?
Because as you know, that is what he is really saying. Cut all you must, just don’t cut mine.
But why am I hearing: “As long as I’ve got mine, I don’t care where the money comes from”?
Exactly….
“But why am I hearing: “As long as I’ve got mine, I don’t care where the money comes from”?”
Don’t forget The Defendant’s Corollary:
“JUSTICE for them!, but, MERCY for me…”
Clipped from Neal Boortz 4-13-10
“In honor of tax week, I figured I would give you some insight into exactly how much of the wealth that you have created Washington is spending … and how they are spending it. The folks at the Heritage Foundation have the details”.
* In 2010, Washington will spend a record $31,406 per household.
* In 2010, Washington will collect $18,276 per household in taxes.
* The $13,130 difference between spending and revenue is our budget deficit per household … on top of all prior government debt.
* Since 2008, government spending has increased by $5,000 per household. That’s in just two years folks.
* Over the last decade, government spending has increased $10,000 per household.
Now, considering that Washington spends $31,406 per household .. what exactly is the breakdown? The Heritage Foundation also has that information for us. Here are the highlights:
* Social Security/Medicare: $9,949 per household
* Defense: $6,071 per household
* Antipoverty programs: $5,466 per household
* Unemployment benefits: $1,640 per household
* Interest on the federal debt: $1,585 per household
* Veterans’ benefits: $1,052 per household
* Federal employee retirement benefits: $1,018 per household
* Education: $914 per household
* Highways/mass transit: $613 per household
* Health research/regulation: $550 per household
* Mortgage Credit: $470 per household
* All other federal programs justice, international affairs, natural resources, the environment, regional development, farm subsidies, social services, space exploration, air transportation and energy: $2,078 per household
At the same time that our government has seen fit to spend more money that it has … the number of non-payers (there are people without income tax liability) has increased by 59% in less than a decade. The number of non-payers grew from 32.6 million in 2000 to 51.6 million in 2008. At the same time, the total number of tax filers only grew by 10%.
* Social Security/Medicare: $9,949 per household
* Defense: $6,071 per household
Interesting. I always thought that Defense was the biggest monstracity.
Defense was the biggest monstracity ??
I think it is individualy…The $9,949. is the combination of SS & Medicare…
Plus Medicare and SS are funded separately.
There’s a bunch of balance sheet items, such as foreign wars.
Looks like a recipe for a spectacular collapse of a top-heavy society. How much longer do we have?
Until other countries stop accepting dollars as payment for the imported goods we are addicted to.
Nice post wmbz…..
“the number of non-payers (there are people without income tax liability) has increased by 59% in less than a decade.”
I’ve seen a bunch of articles lately calling these non-payers “freeloaders” and such. But they’re really just following the tax code as it’s written. I don’t think they’re the ones who wrote the laws. And I’m sure they would be happy to be in a higher tax bracket, if given the choice. If anyone should be blamed, it is the politicians.
I’ve seen a bunch of articles lately calling these non-payers “freeloaders” and such. But they’re really just following the tax code as it’s written.
True, they are just following the laws, but they are “freeloading” in that they’re enjoying the benefits while others pay the cost - for roads, for schools, defense, and some even get a check handed to them.
Yes, arguably politicians are to blame. But these folks also vote for the politicians in office and the policies in place. So they are to blame as well. (so is anyone who continually votes for these yahoos).
Yea but the working poor pay a higher percent of their pay in total taxes than most rich people: payroll, medicare, local, sales, gas, phone, sin tax, property maybe, inflation tax etc etc.
The reason why they pay no federal tax is aside from federal tax, the working poor are in a very high tax bracket.
Good point, Rio. And that’s why I oppose the “temporary” sales tax increase that’s soon to be voted on here in AZ.
Yea but the working poor pay a higher percent of their pay in total taxes than most rich people: payroll, medicare, local, sales, gas, phone, sin tax, property maybe, inflation tax etc etc.
The reason why they pay no federal tax is aside from federal tax, the working poor are in a very high tax bracket.
Hmm - while I agree that poor pay more tax than most people realize (especially the inflation thing), I don’t think they pay more as a percentage of their pay than the rich. The rich pay the same sales tax rate, the same payroll tax rate, the same medicare rate, same property tax rate, etc. Two of those things *might* contribute to a higher rate for the poor - sin tax and gas tax, both of which are higher percentage than regular sales tax. Sin tax I wouldn’t begrudge the rich - that’s purely a choice - the poor don’t have to smoke or drink. Gas tax is another matter, but I have a very hard time believing that the gas tax alone would offset higher income tax, capital gains taxes, etc. and then some.
Got a link to some hard data, perhaps? IMO normally people that make such a statement are usually blowing smoke, but you’re not one that generally blows smoke like that.
“temporary”
Temporary indeed!
Yea but the working poor pay a higher percent of their pay in total taxes than most rich people: payroll, medicare, local, sales, gas, phone, sin tax, property maybe, inflation tax etc etc.
But those taxes don’t pay for roads, schools, etc. If we all pay 100% taxes, and the total is only $5, that doesn’t build a road. I get your point that perhaps they are taxed at a higher % when you look at effective tax rate. But they’re still getting far more than they pay in. That’s the bottom line.
And as far as the “Rich” that pay the bills? I certainly pay in far more than I get. Not having any children, yet paying property taxes to fund the schools, and paying in the top income tax bracket so that everyone else can get a tax credit for each child they have, oh, and for buying a house (I rent), and for buying a new car (I drive a 10 year old car with 175k miles). I’m one of the supposed “rich” who is getting soaked here, yet I’m 31 years old and was unemployed for half of last year. WTF.
But they’re still getting far more than they pay in. That’s the bottom line.
They are paying a higher percentage of their income in American taxes so in a sense they are sacrificing more for America, percentage wise, than the rich. Should we take all of their money? They are not “making it” now.
If we had higher wages and a more equitable distribution of wealth, as we had in the past, they would pay more taxes. It’s so simple when corportist propaganda is removed.
You just can’t take good jobs and opportunity away from people (so shareholders make more $) and then scoff at the “working-freeloaders”. It is not intellectually consistent.
Hmm - while I agree that poor pay more tax than most people realize (especially the inflation thing), I don’t think they pay more as a percentage of their pay than the rich.
“The rich pay the same sales tax” - Yes but they spend a far lower percentage of their income.
The same payroll tax rate - Social security tax is only on the first 100-110k?, Medicare tax is on wage income, so if your salary is say paid in stock and stock options I don’t think you have to pay it.
Same property tax rate, etc. - For the top 1% housing is a tiny fraction of their income. The middle class spends what 3-10x (ie bubble) income on their home. If you make 100 mil a year it’s going to hard to find a 1 billion dollar home.
Two of those things *might* contribute to a higher rate for the poor - sin tax and gas tax, both of which are higher percentage than regular sales tax. Sin tax I wouldn’t begrudge the rich - that’s purely a choice - the poor don’t have to smoke or drink. Agree but it doesn’t negate from the arguement that they pay a high effective tax rate.
Gas tax is another matter, but I have a very hard time believing that the gas tax alone would offset higher income tax, capital gains taxes, etc. and then some.
Effective tax rate on top 400 wage earners was 16%.
Packman you are forgetting the biggest tax of all inflation which hurts wage earners far more than the elite who can hedge against it.
But those taxes don’t pay for roads, schools, etc. If we all pay 100% taxes, and the total is only $5, that doesn’t build a road. I get your point that perhaps they are taxed at a higher % when you look at effective tax rate. But they’re still getting far more than they pay in. That’s the bottom line
Are they- The system is set up by the elite to reward the elite. Do the poor and lower middle class benefit from the bailouts when the eventual cost will be paid for with inflation? I still say that food stamps and well fare were designed by the rich to keep the poor from rioting while the elite continue to strip the middle class and working upper middle class of their wealth.
RIO
The elite in this country have convinced many of the working rich, the upper middle class and those that borrow and pretend that they are all in the same camp as the elite. The upper middle class and the aspiring or pretending to be upper middle class then go on the rampage about how the tax system is unfair to the rich. The reality is just the opposite. I pay effective tax rate of 25%. Those making an average of 350million a year pay an effective federal tax rate of 16%. They make 1000x what I make and pay 10% less. They pay less than people making 1/10,000 of their income. If you throw in state and payroll taxes and inflation the numbers are even uglier.
Do the poor and lower middle class benefit from the bailouts when the eventual cost will be paid for with inflation?
Who’s talking about bailouts? Prior to your comment, this conversation was about benefits the fed gov’t provides the public. I’m sore about bailouts as well, but my comments were directly solely at items that are considered a public good - roads, schools, etc. You know, the things that I (As a higher income earner) supposedly use more of or benefit more from, because I make more money.
while I agree that poor pay more tax than most people realize (especially the inflation thing), I don’t think they pay more as a percentage of their pay than the rich.
These reports are usually issued on a state by state basis but it’s across the board. Keep in mind none of these reports below include utility, gas, sin, service, payroll, medicare or inflation tax. If those were included the reported percentage of income the working poor pays in taxes is higher than most rich and way higher than the super rich.
Report Says Poor Pay More In Taxes
A report released Wednesday by Connecticut Voices for Children concludes that the state’s wealthiest residents pay much less of their income in state and local taxes than do the state’s middle-income and poor families.
http://www.ctnewsjunkie.com/general_news/report_says_poor_pay_more_in_t.php
Poor Pay Biggest Income Share in State, Local Taxes*
Antipoverty activists say that America’s poor, saddled with a disproportionally high state and local tax burden, are getting hit from both sides on all levels of government.
http://newstandardnews.net/content/index.cfm/items/2879
Study: Low-income Iowans pay higher share in taxes
DES MOINES, Iowa (AP) — A new study finds that low-income Iowans pay a bigger share of their incomes in state and local taxes than wealthy residents.
http://www.siouxcityjournal.com/news/article_d5dde64b-627a-598a-95e3-f76834277a5d.html
Minnesota Taxes Heavy on Low & Middle Income Families
Minnesota’s low and middle income families are paying a higher percentage of their income in state and local taxes than the wealthiest Minnesotans. This is the conclusion of the 2009 Minnesota Tax Incidence Study (MTIS) prepared by the Minnesota Department of Revenue.
http://www.mn2020.org/index.asp?Type=B_BASIC&SEC={8D1D175B-8512-457E-8EBD-01F9800AAE48}
Oklahoma’s Poor and Middle Income Families Pay a Higher Percentage in State, Local Taxes
(Oklahoma City, Nov. 18, 2009): State and local taxes take a bigger toll on the incomes of Oklahoma’s low- and moderate-income households than on higher-income households, according to a new study by the Institute on Taxation and Economic Policy
http://www.okpolicy.org/oklahoma%E2%80%99s-poor-and-middle-income-families-pay-a-higher-percentage-state-local-taxes
Those are state and local taxes - non-progressive, and are paid by even the lowest-income people. We’re talking total taxes - including federal income tax.
Nevertheless - good data and thanks.
One thing about this recession is an education on the topic of money. I’m getting an extended education on the use of cash. Not only do you get the discounts but businesses have very, very creative ways of not charging and paying taxes!
I know of a Subway shop yes the $5 sub…where employees dont ring up every sale…
What? Really? An institution of higher learning, loaded with bloated money wasters…
UC Berkeley bloated, wasteful, consultants say
Nanette Asimov, Chronicle Staff Writer ~ Tuesday, April 13, 2010
For a world-class university studded with Nobel laureates and innovative research, UC Berkeley manages its finances a bit like a sloppy undergrad, a new report suggests.
The campus could save about $75 million a year by streamlining purchases, concentrating job duties and laying off “redundant” managers, according to consultants hired last fall to help the school become a leaner operation.
“This kind of change is hard,” said campus Vice Chancellor Frank Yeary, who is overseeing the Operational Excellence Project. “We will get pushback in certain quarters. But the fact that the state has so consistently disinvested in our organization … most people really appreciate the need to change.”
Yeary said UC Berkeley’s plan is not only to push the state for more education funding - which has dropped by half since 2002 to $232 million in inflation-adjusted dollars - but to do a better job with the money the university already has.
The campus has five big areas of bloat, according to Bain & Co., the Massachusetts consulting firm being paid $3 million to identify waste.
The biggest, say the consultants, is too many managers. The human resources department alone has one manager per 63 employees, compared with an average of one per 127 employees across other universities.
Next up is purchasing. Instead of negotiating universitywide contracts with bulk discounts, for example, it’s every department for itself.
For more on this “bloat” theme, see:
Edu Bubble - A site about the book: Beating the College Bubble
Good book — and you’ll love the price: free.
Slim, thank you very much for the link. I’ve got two years to go until Junior ships off to school to get larned sumpin’ useful. I’ve done what I can, but am sweating bullets. His brother’s alma mater - I found out at a parent’s lunch - now has a rack rate of $42K per year.
The kid doesn’t want to talk about college. If I were in his shoes - having been indoctrinated about the evils of debt - I would be too.
The “middle man”, and middle manager with the Napoleon complex, has killed this country.
And have I mentioned those brother-in-law jobs and political favors?
As long as they can spend OPM it will never change. Probably the biggest waste is to spend $3 million on a consultant who’s recommendation will never be followed.
Remember the /Grace Commission?
“Ethical” / “Professional”… promate: Buy & Hold / 201K = “TrueDeceiver’s™”
Think they got “tax advice” from other “Ethical” / “Professional” types?
Lehman Channeled Risks Through ‘Alter Ego’ Firm:
NYT, On Tuesday April 13, 2010
“None of this was disclosed by Lehman, however.”
Entities like Hudson Castle are part of a vast financial system that operates in the shadows of Wall Street, largely beyond the reach of banking regulators. These entities enable banks to exchange investments for cash to finance their operations and, at times, make their finances look stronger than they are.
Critics say that such deals helped Lehman and other banks temporarily transfer their exposure to the risky investments tied to subprime mortgages and commercial real estate. Even now, a year and a half after Lehman’s collapse, major banks still undertake such transactions with businesses whose names, like Hudson Castle’s, are rarely mentioned outside of footnotes in financial statements, if at all.”
A “front company” is nothing new. SOP.
Denote “nothing new”… that involves “Trillions”$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$ ?
Then the case is made for the interesting story of these “Non-Bitter” “Lost Wages” renters:
“The Wynns reside in villas at opposite ends of their attached Vegas resorts. According to SEC filings, Steve Wynn pays the company $503,831 a year in rent and Elaine pays $350,000 for her pad.”
Steve Wynn: My Divorce Is Most Expensive Ever:
LAS VEGAS (April 9) AOL news
Funny, wonder just how many “loop holes” can be jammed into over 2000 pages? I guess as MB Polosi said, “we have to sign the bill to see what’s in it”
Healthcare overhaul won’t stop premium increases.
The new law doesn’t prevent rate hikes such as Anthem Blue Cross’ double-digit increase last year. ‘It is a very big loophole,’ says Sen. Dianne Feinstein, who is pushing regulatory legislation. LA Times
From Washington
Public outrage over double-digit rate hikes for health insurance may have helped push President Obama’s healthcare overhaul across the finish line, but the new law does not give regulators the power to block similar increases in the future.
And now, with some major companies already moving to boost premiums and others poised to follow suit, millions of Americans may feel an unexpected jolt in the pocketbook.
Although Democrats promised greater consumer protection, the overhaul does not give the federal government broad regulatory power to prevent increases.
Many state governments — which traditionally had responsibility for regulating insurance companies — also do not have such authority. And several that do are now being sued by insurance companies.
“It is a very big loophole in health reform,” Sen. Dianne Feinstein (D-Calif.) said. Feinstein and Rep. Jan Schakowsky (D-Ill.) are pushing legislation to expand federal and state authority to prevent insurance companies from boosting rates excessively.
And now, with some major companies already moving to boost premiums and others poised to follow suit, millions of Americans may feel an unexpected jolt in the pocketbook.
I can’t help thinking that these premium jack-ups are going to backfire in a big way. I’ve got the feeling that more than a few of the jack-ees will just say, “Blankety-blank it. I’ll just do without your lousy, overpriced insurance. You never did anything for me except take my money.”
….and then you have to pay the penalty (tax) to the feds for not buying the mandated insurance. Of course the penalty will be cheaper, but those wishing to self insure still need to contribute for the greater good.
But it does require them to spend 80% of premium income on “medical losses” as the insurance companies call payments to medical service providers. Not as easy to manipulate as implied here.
Yes, the Dems did promise greater consumer protection and the Repubs fought them damn every inch of the way!
But… if you can no longer afford the premiums, you become eligible for the state pool.
grrrrrrrr!
“…every damn inch…”
Repubs fought them damn every inch of the way!
Like Dems needed any Repub votes to pass this crap…..
They did. Perhaps you are not familiar with general parliamentary procedures let alone the way Congress does it?
Repubs fought them damn every inch of the way!
As if Dems needed any repubs votes…….
Rates will begin to spiral upward at an increasing rate as soon as the guaranteed coverage kicks in. Insurers, forced to cover preexisting conditions, will easily be able to justify large premium increases. After a very few years, rates will be so high that there will be a concensus call for a government sponsored option that is “affordable”. One in place, the private insurers will be forced out of the individual market.
Methinks that is the grand plan for a single payer system.
GMAC’s ResCap sells European mortgage operations
Philadelphia Business Journal
GMAC Residential Capital, also known as ResCap, said Monday that it agreed to sell its European mortgage operations to asset manager Fortress Investment Group.
ResCap, the residential mortgage finance arm of GMAC Financial Services based in Fort Washington, Pa., said the deal represents about 10 percent of ResCap’s total assets as of Dec. 31.
“The agreements to sell the European mortgage assets and businesses are key steps toward our objective of reducing the ongoing exposure for GMAC from the legacy mortgage operation. This is a significant achievement and will contribute in putting GMAC on a path toward improved performance,” GMAC CEO Michael A. Carpenter said.
Under the agreements, GMAC said the sale will include certain loan assets (including nonperforming loans) and servicing rights, and the shares of the related operating entities in the United Kingdom, Germany and the Netherlands.
Separately, GMAC said it sold U.K. loans worth $177 million on March 31 that, combined with the Fortress deal and certain other transactions, will allow the company to effectively exit the European mortgage market.
GMAC Financial of Minneapolis, which is majority-owned by the federal government, said earlier this year that its overall mortgage business lost $4 billion in the fourth quarter.
four. billion. a. quarter… still.
Being the evil bastard that I am, I would cut them off along with thousands of life long mooches. She should be fixed, enough shooting out babies.
“Why work when I can get £42,000 in benefits a year AND drive a Mercedes”? UK Times 13th April 2010
The Davey family’s £815-a-week state handouts pay for a four-bedroom home, top-of-the-range mod cons and two vehicles including a Mercedes people carrier.
Father-of-seven Peter gave up work because he could make more living on benefits.
Yet he and his wife Claire are still not happy with their lot.
With an eighth child on the way, they are demanding a bigger house, courtesy of the taxpayer.
‘It’s really hard,’ said Mrs Davey, 29, who is seven months pregnant. ‘We can’t afford holidays and I don’t want my kids living on a council estate and struggling like I have.
‘The price of living is going up but benefits are going down. My carer’s allowance is only going up by 80p this year and petrol is so expensive now, I’m worried how we’ll cope.
‘We’re still waiting for somewhere bigger.’
Mrs Davey has never had a full-time job while her 35-year-old husband gave up his post in administration nine years ago after realising they would be better off living off the state.
At their semi on the Isle of Anglesey, the family have a 42in flatscreen television in the living room with Sky TV at £50 a month, a Wii games console, three Nintendo DS machines and a computer - not to mention four mobile phones.
With their income of more than £42,000 a year, they run an 11-seater minibus and the seven-seat automatic Mercedes.
But according to the Daveys they have nothing to be thankful for.
‘It doesn’t bother me that taxpayers are paying for me to have a large family,’ added Mrs Davey.
‘We couldn’t afford to care for our children without benefits, but as long as they have everything they need, I don’t think I’m selfish.
‘Most of the parents at our kids’ school are on benefits.’
Dude, that’s roughly $400 a week or $22k a year.
They are NOT living high on the hog and GB’s REAL unemployment is ~22%.
I know, waaah 7 kids and one on the way. This lazy bastard quite his job 9 years ago by choice, they certainly deserve NOT to live high on anyone else’s hog. They have a roof over their head through NO effort of their own, just the type you want squirting out kids left and right.
People should never be held responsible for their life style choices in some peoples world.
1 USD = .65 pounds so your calculation is backwards. 815 pounds per week is $1253 per month or $65,200 per year. On an after tax basis that is the equivalent of a 100k a year job.
sorry, $1250 per week
Oh frack, yer right. DOH!
wmbz, despite my erroneous calculations, I do agree they should be more responsible.
I grew up in a large, poor family and it should be against the law.
Calm Before The Storm?
On Monday, the Chicago Board Options Exchange volatility index, or VIX (NYSE: ^VIX - News), also known as the market’s fear gauge, sank to its lowest since July 2007.
With endless pulses of freshly created Spanky Bernanky FunnyMunny pushing up the stock market, how can you lose?
Long and strong - algorithm me up to new highs, 100 trillion at the market, fill or kill, all or none, immediate gains or cancel, please.
Intel 1Q profit nearly quadruples; company predicts increased profitability
April 13, 2010
SAN FRANCISCO (AP) — Intel Corp. said Tuesday its net income in the first quarter nearly quadrupled over last year and reflected an overall bump in spending on technology by companies. The results sent Intel shares higher.
Among other things, Intel got a lift from sales of new chips for computer servers — the kind of purchase that many companies delayed in the recession. And Intel’s chief financial officer, Stacy Smith, said in an interview that demand for processors for higher-end laptops was stronger than expected as corporations upgraded their workers’ computers.
That is a change from what Intel saw in the past few quarters, when its growth was largely driven by consumer demand for “netbooks,” stripped-down laptops used mostly for surfing the Internet. Chips for those machines are less profitable than chips for regular laptops.
Netbooks are a rippoff.
And yet the Nasdaq is still no where near what it was in 2000. I think the housing market will follow the same pattern.
“But the real secret weapon is the Federal Reserve’s policy of holding interest rates near zero, which bulls contend will fuel a long-lived rally by forcing investors out of cash accounts gathering next to no interest.”
And thus the war on savers is out there for all to see! I imagine it would only take 5%-10% of the savers to move their money out of the banking system (hoard elsewhere not the stock market) to bring the system to its knees.
Tim Geithner Is A Hero, Says Hedge Fund Manager Mark Dow
Apr 13, 2010 Henry Blodget Newsmakers, Recession, Banking, Politics.
If one man has born the brunt of the outrage over the Wall Street bailouts over the past 18 months, it’s Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner. And this criticism, says Mark Dow of Pharo Management, is wholly undeserved.
On the contrary, says Dow, Tim Geithner is a “hero.”
A former Treasury official himself, Mark Dow argues that Tim Geithner, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke, former Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson, and the other folks who managed the bailouts did exactly the right thing. They saved the country and economy from collapse. They acted swiftly and prudently. They held their ground against widespread public fury about what they were doing. And even though, in the process, they saved some folks who didn’t deserve to be saved–Wall Street bankers who took too much risk and brought the economy to the brink–there was no other option. They did exactly what they had to do.
This, of course, is what Tim Geithner, Ben Bernanke, and others have been saying since the start of the crisis: We had to do it or the world would have ended. To say this argument has been met with widespread skepticism is an understatement: What Geithner and others “had to do,” appeared, from the outside, to be a heroic effort to use taxpayer money to save people and firms who were the last folks on earth to deserve it.
But Dow is persuasive. And he believes there was no other way out.
When I was a kid and people used to ask me what I wanted to do for a living, “hero to a hedge fund manager” was at the top of my list.
Householders in a hurry to sell before the election ‘decimates the property market’ 13th April 2010 UK Daily Mail
The number of homeowners putting up ‘For Sale’ signs has shot to its highest level for nearly three years
The number of homeowners putting up For Sale signs has shot to its highest level for nearly three years
Homeowners are rushing to sell their properties before the election, a report revealed today.
The Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors said the ‘dash for cash’ was being fuelled by the extreme levels of ‘uncertainty’ about the future.
It comes as the number of mortgage loans from lenders jumped 12 per cent in February as demand recovered from an ‘extremely weak’ January.
The rush to put homes on the market appears to stem from a fear that, whoever wins on May 6, the impact on the housing market could be bleak.
Homeowners are worried about the lethal mixture of massive job cuts, particularly in the public sector, rising interest rates and tax hikes crippling workers’ ability to buy.
The influential report, published today, shows the number of homeowners putting up ‘For Sale’ signs has shot to its highest level for nearly three years.
Some estate agents said they were approaching record levels, with an almost unprecedented number of homeowners looking for a buyer.
Here in Tucson, I’m seeing “for sale” signs sprouting up like spring weeds. We had a rainy winter, hence, a lot of weeds now.
But, sorry to say, here’s my prediction: I think that in the coming months, a lot of those signs will still be creaking in the wind. Why? Because our local job market’s not that good. And neither is Arizona’s economy. Heck, those rich baby boomers aren’t moving here the way we were told they would.
Texas man pleads guilty to hiding money at UBS
Apr 13, 2010
WASHINGTON, April 13 (Reuters) - A Texas man has pleaded guilty to hiding assets and related income from accounts at giant Swiss bank UBS AG (UBSN.VX) (UBS.N), the U.S. Justice Department said on Tuesday.
Paul Zabczuk pleaded guilty in federal court to filing a false tax return related to hundreds of thousands of dollars held in UBS accounts, and he could face up to three years in prison, the Justice Department said.
UBS last year admitted it had helped U.S. clients evade taxes, and paid $780 million to settle a United States government suit against it.
One whining wimp after another, reminds me of grade school.
Rep. Grayson Wins ‘Muzzle’ Award For Free Speech Offenses FOXNews.com
Outspoken Florida Rep. Alan Grayson topped the “Muzzle” awards on Tuesday, earning the dubious distinction for asking Attorney General Eric Holder to investigate a Web site that parodied his campaign site.
The annual award list, created by the Thomas Jefferson Center for the Protection of Free Expression, is presented on April 13, Jefferson’s birthday, to remind people of the third president’s unavowed commitment to free speech.
The center says the awards are handed out for “some of the more egregious or ridiculous affronts to the First Amendment right of free speech.”
Topping the meter was Grayson’s effort to seek a monetary fine and five-year prison sentence against a group of Orlando-area Republican activists led by Angie Langley, who launched the Web site “mycongressmanisnuts.com,” a parody of Grayson’s official Web site “congressmanwithguts.com.
Grayson wrote a complaint to Holder in December alleging that the Web site violated federal law because Langley is not actually a constituent of his and the site targets him solely, even though it claims to oppose or endorse several candidates.
“The merits of Rep. Grayson’s claims are weak at best,” the group wrote. “Alleged violations of Federal Election law that, even if true, represent minor transgressions.”
Grayson is no stranger to free speech, having used his own First Amendment right to call an adviser to Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke a “whore.” He later apologized for that.
This guy turned out to be a mega-idiot.
I kinda liked him when he was tough against Bernanke, Geithner, etc.
All of sudden he started showing his mental illness. Too bad…
Minn. man pleads guilty in $190M Ponzi scheme (04-13) MINNEAPOLIS (AP) –
A Minneapolis money manager has pleaded guilty to orchestrating a Ponzi scheme that defrauded at least 1,000 victims out of $190 million.
Thirty-seven-year-old Trevor Cook of Apple Valley pleaded guilty Tuesday in federal court to one count of mail fraud and one count of tax evasion.
As part of a plea agreement, Cook admitted that from July 2007 through July 2009, he told clients he’d invest their money in a foreign currency trading program with annual returns of 10 percent to 12 percent. Instead, prosecutors say, he used the money for personal expenses, including gambling debts, and to keep the scheme going.
Cook faces up to 20 years in prison on the mail fraud charge and five years on the tax evasion charge.
CSX lifts 1Q profit 24%
Jacksonville Business Journal - April 13, 2010
CSX Corp. credited increased volumes and efficiencies for a 24 percent spike in net income to $306 million in the first quarter compared with a year earlier.
Earnings per share from continuing operations increased from 64 cents per share to 78 cents per share within the same period, beating analysts’ averaged expectations by about 9 cents. The company’s revenue in the first quarter grew by 11 percent to nearly $2.5 billion.
Higher revenue and productivity helped the company achieve its record first quarter operating ratio of 74.5 percent and record first quarter operating income of $634 million.
CSX’s stock closed at $53.29 per share Tuesday before earnings were released. Company shares have ranged between $26.72 and $53.47 over the past year.
The company reported an increase in handling of chemicals, agricultural products, metals, phosphates and fertilizers, and vehicles. Coal handling declined despite China putting in an order for more than 5 million tons of U.S. metallurgical coal.
As CSX Corp.’s handling of goods and materials increases, it’s calling back furloughed employees. About 1,000 furloughed CSX workers have returned to work since the summer, said Gary Sease, a company spokesman.
CSX, which employs about 3,500 in Northeast Florida, provides rail, intermodal and rail-to-truck transload services. Its transportation network spans about 21,000 miles in 23 eastern states and the District of Columbia, and it connects to more than 70 ocean, river and lake ports.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2010/04/13/the-fourteen-banker-anony_n_534820.html
‘The Fourteenth Banker,’ Anonymous Bank Insider, Describes His Moral Crisis: ‘The System Is Built To Be Gamed’
The system is built to be gamed.”
“The voices of dissent are not being heard.”
These are the words of an anonymous executive at one of America’s 10 largest banks, who after many years of watching the worst of Wall Street’s ethics transform his company, has decided to speak out.
Being 2nd youngest out of…1 of 6, …I knew that at age 15.
Note my reference: ‘The System Is Built To Be Gamed’
Haven’t been on today until now, but just scanned some posts and want to say that PB has never been a bully towards me - even when I was *this close* to purchasing a few weeks ago. He was satisfied with the fact that it was a mortgage I could afford, I was putting a substantial amount down, and planned to live there for a very long term. I don’t know what Muggy said that sparked the debate, but I do know he’s seemed, in the past, to be driven by the wife’s pressure more than anything else. And at the end of the day, I kind of feel like most of the people on here are looking out for each other. Perhaps it was just a matter of “tough love” from PB. I may not know Muggy, personally, but I’ve felt kind of bad for him having to make decisions based on pressure. And sometimes when we make decisions we aren’t really comfortable with, we tend to “oversell” them to others. I know I’ve been guilty of that.
Just my 2 cents.
I am with Muggy on this one.
He really wants it bad, he should buy one. 5/10 thousands here and there should not make much difference. At least he will have a peace of mind. That should count for something.
I don’t care about “the wife’s pressure”, but I’m surprised that he’s looking to buy when his employment is up in the air.
D’oh! I can’t help but wonder now if he is a closet UHS in teacher’s clothing.
“…but I’ve felt kind of bad for him having to make decisions based on pressure.”
And there, by the grace of God, we ALL go…
BWAHAHAHicHAHAHicHAHAHAHAHicHAHAHic* (DennisN™)
I think that trademark is a little misattributed, don’t you?
Hey dude — where ya bin? I could use some help with mugging Muggy, if you are up for the task. I have recently morphed into the HBB’s resident bully.
I always knew you had it in you.
My baby’s all grown up now. Sniff
It’s tough to get pounded by all the Muggy and “Suzanne Researched This” sympathizers on the HBB, but I am a big boy now…
No the FPSS ha-ha doesn’t have the drunken “hic” embedded therein.
‘Perhaps it was just a matter of “tough love” from PB.’
Right. The reason that I got steamed is that Muggy responded defensively — just like the guy on the ‘Suzanne Researched This’ commercial probably would have.
This whole episode just reinforced my general disgust over the entire housing bubble debacle. If there is anyone in the virtual room whom I have failed to insult, I sincerely apologize.
Did anyone see that idiot Cramer on the Today show this morning? He was nothing but sunshine and rainbows. Except for Florida and Las Vegas, apparently the housing crisis is completely over and is all better now. Oh, and, the stock market will continue to go up, up, up. No more closing below 11,000.
Let’s all party!
Stupid is as stupid says.
The rotteness of the business model of buying and selling loans hit me today.
Imagine if I could, out of thin air, generate this product, put any dollar value I want, sell it off and take a percentage of that as profit. And people keep doing this on down the line.
Until the time comes for the product itself, not the sale of it, but the product itself, to create some profit. At which time it disappears, and someone is left holding the bag.
It seems a little silly, almost tulip-bulb-esque. The emperor doesn’t have any clothes.
I’m jist a bank who cain’t say no,
I’m in a turrible fix
I always say “come on, le’s go”
Jist when I orta say nix!
When a person tries to get a loan,
I know the banker orta kick his knees.
But as soon as someone wants a home,
I somehow, sorta, wanna get the fees!
I’m jist a fool when income’s low
I cain’t be picky and quaint
I ain’t the type that can say no,
How can I be whut I ain’t?
I cain’t say no!
Former WaMu execs sworn in during hearing
Did WaMu’s fraud lower rest of market?
For a long time, Washington Mutual used a catchy tagline in its ads, “The Power of Yes.” And new investigations show it wasn’t just talking the talk: widespread fraud throughout the company let it say yes to just about everybody. Alisa Roth reports.
This is spectacular news!
- America is back!
- We’re Number 1!
- There is no further need for housing market life support; hence the Fed’s MBS purchase program, the $8K tax credit and other housing subsidies can be eliminated without any negative impacts on the market!
The Comeback Country
How America pulled itself back from the brink—and why it’s destined to stay on top.
LOL @ FED
Gee - we should add 25% of our GDP to our national debt every two years! Just think how we would leave every other country in the dust - like forevers!!!!1!11one.
These are the crazy, happy times, folks! Enjoy the good times while they last (at least through November 2010, I am guessing…).
List of new agancies under the healthreform bill–Wonder what these all cost?Share.. Sat at 1:00pm
Recently President Obama signed a government takeover of health care into law. Below is a list of new boards and commissions created in the bill.
1. Grant program for consumer assistance offices (Section 1002, p. 37)
2. Grant program for states to monitor premium increases (Section 1003, p. 42)
3. Committee to review administrative simplification standards (Section 1104, p. 71)
4. Demonstration program for state wellness programs (Section 1201, p. 93)
5. Grant program to establish state Exchanges (Section 1311(a), p. 130)
6. State American Health Benefit Exchanges (Section 1311(b), p. 131)
7. Exchange grants to establish consumer navigator programs (Section 1311(I ), p. 150)
8. Grant program for state cooperatives (Section 1322, p. 169)
9. Advisory board for state cooperatives (Section 1322(b)(3), p. 173)
10. Private purchasing council for state cooperatives (Section 1322(d), p. 177)
11. State basic health plan programs (Section 1331, p. 201)
12. State-based reinsurance program (Section 1341, p. 226)
13. Program of risk corridors for individual and small group markets (Section 1342, p. 233)
14. Program to determine eligibility for Exchange participation (Section 1411, p. 267)
15. Program for advance determination of tax credit eligibility (Section 1412, p. 288)
16. Grant program to implement health IT enrollment standards (Section 1561, p. 370)
17. Federal Coordinated Health Care Office for dual eligible beneficiaries (Section 2602, p. 512)
18. Medicaid quality measurement program (Section 2701, p. 518)
19. Medicaid health home program for people with chronic conditions, and grants for planning same (Section 2703, p. 524)
20. Medicaid demonstration project to evaluate bundled payments (Section 2704, p. 532)
21. Medicaid demonstration project for global payment system (Section 2705, p. 536)
22. Medicaid demonstration project for accountable care organizations (Section 2706, p. 538)
23. Medicaid demonstration project for emergency psychiatric care (Section 2707, p. 540)
24. Grant program for delivery of services to individuals with postpartum depression (Section 2952(b), p. 591)
25. State allotments for grants to promote personal responsibility education programs (Section 2953, p. 596)
26. Medicare value-based purchasing program (Section 3001(a), p. 613)
27. Medicare value-based purchasing demonstration program for critical access hospitals (Section 3001(b), p. 637)
28. Medicare value-based purchasing program for skilled nursing facilities (Section 3006(a), p. 666)
29. Medicare value-based purchasing program for home health agencies (Section 3006(b), p. 668)
30. Interagency Working Group on Health Care Quality (Section 3012, p. 688)
31. Grant program to develop health care quality measures (Section 3013, p. 693)
32. Center for Medicare and Medicaid Innovation (Section 3021, p. 712)
33. Medicare shared savings program (Section 3022, p. 728)
34. Medicare pilot program on payment bundling (Section 3023, p. 739)
35. Independence at home medical practice demonstration program (Section 3024, p. 752)
36. Program for use of patient safety organizations to reduce hospital readmission rates (Section 3025(b), p. 775)
37. Community-based care transitions program (Section 3026, p. 776)
38. Demonstration project for payment of complex diagnostic laboratory tests (Section 3113, p. 800)
39. Medicare hospice concurrent care demonstration project (Section 3140, p. 850)
40. Independent Payment Advisory Board (Section 3403, p. 982)
41. Consumer Advisory Council for Independent Payment Advisory Board (Section 3403, p. 1027)
42. Grant program for technical assistance to providers implementing health quality practices (Section 3501, p. 1043)
43. Grant program to establish interdisciplinary health teams (Section 3502, p. 1048)
44. Grant program to implement medication therapy management (Section 3503, p. 1055)
45. Grant program to support emergency care pilot programs (Section 3504, p. 1061)
46. Grant program to promote universal access to trauma services (Section 3505(b), p. 1081)
47. Grant program to develop and promote shared decision-making aids (Section 3506, p. 1088)
48. Grant program to support implementation of shared decision-making (Section 3506, p. 1091)
49. Grant program to integrate quality improvement in clinical education (Section 3508, p. 1095)
50. Health and Human Services Coordinating Committee on Women?s Health (Section 3509(a), p. 1098)
51. Centers for Disease Control Office of Women?s Health (Section 3509(b), p. 1102)
52. Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality Office of Women?s Health (Section 3509(e), p. 1105)
53. Health Resources and Services Administration Office of Women?s Health (Section 3509(f), p. 1106)
54. Food and Drug Administration Office of Women?s Health (Section 3509(g), p. 1109)
55. National Prevention, Health Promotion, and Public Health Council (Section 4001, p. 1114)
56. Advisory Group on Prevention, Health Promotion, and Integrative and Public Health (Section 4001(f), p. 1117)
57. Prevention and Public Health Fund (Section 4002, p. 1121)
58. Community Preventive Services Task Force (Section 4003(b), p. 1126)
59. Grant program to support school-based health centers (Section 4101, p. 1135)
60. Grant program to promote research-based dental caries disease management (Section 4102, p. 1147)
61. Grant program for States to prevent chronic disease in Medicaid beneficiaries (Section 4108, p. 1174)
62. Community transformation grants (Section 4201, p. 1182)
63. Grant program to provide public health interventions (Section 4202, p. 1188)
64. Demonstration program of grants to improve child immunization rates (Section 4204(b), p. 1200)
65. Pilot program for risk-factor assessments provided through community health centers (Section 4206, p. 1215)
66. Grant program to increase epidemiology and laboratory capacity (Section 4304, p. 1233)
67. Interagency Pain Research Coordinating Committee (Section 4305, p. 1238)
68. National Health Care Workforce Commission (Section 5101, p. 1256)
69. Grant program to plan health care workforce development activities (Section 5102(c), p. 1275)
70. Grant program to implement health care workforce development activities (Section 5102(d), p. 1279)
71. Pediatric specialty loan repayment program (Section 5203, p. 1295)
72. Public Health Workforce Loan Repayment Program (Section 5204, p. 1300)
73. Allied Health Loan Forgiveness Program (Section 5205, p. 1305)
74. Grant program to provide mid-career training for health professionals (Section 5206, p. 1307)
75. Grant program to fund nurse-managed health clinics (Section 5208, p. 1310)
76. Grant program to support primary care training programs (Section 5301, p. 1315)
77. Grant program to fund training for direct care workers (Section 5302, p. 1322)
78. Grant program to develop dental training programs (Section 5303, p. 1325)
79. Demonstration program to increase access to dental health care in underserved communities (Section 5304, p. 1331)
80. Grant program to promote geriatric education centers (Section 5305, p. 1334)
81. Grant program to promote health professionals entering geriatrics (Section 5305, p. 1339)
82. Grant program to promote training in mental and behavioral health (Section 5306, p. 1344)
83. Grant program to promote nurse retention programs (Section 5309, p. 1354)
84. Student loan forgiveness for nursing school faculty (Section 5311(b), p. 1360)
85. Grant program to promote positive health behaviors and outcomes (Section 5313, p. 1364)
86. Public Health Sciences Track for medical students (Section 5315, p. 1372)
87. Primary Care Extension Program to educate providers (Section 5405, p. 1404)
88. Grant program for demonstration projects to address health workforce shortage needs (Section 5507, p. 1442)
89. Grant program for demonstration projects to develop training programs for home health aides (Section 5507, p. 1447)
90. Grant program to establish new primary care residency programs (Section 5508(a), p. 1458)
91. Program of payments to teaching health centers that sponsor medical residency training (Section 5508(c), p. 1462)
92. Graduate nurse education demonstration program (Section 5509, p. 1472)
93. Grant program to establish demonstration projects for community-based mental health settings (Section 5604, p. 1486)
94. Commission on Key National Indicators (Section 5605, p. 1489)
95. Quality assurance and performance improvement program for skilled nursing facilities (Section 6102, p. 1554)
96. Special focus facility program for skilled nursing facilities (Section 6103(a)(3), p. 1561)
97. Special focus facility program for nursing facilities (Section 6103(b)(3), p. 1568)
98. National independent monitor pilot program for skilled nursing facilities and nursing facilities (Section 6112, p. 1589)
99. Demonstration projects for nursing facilities involved in the culture change movement (Section 6114, p. 1597)
100. Patient-Centered Outcomes Research Institute (Section 6301, p. 1619)
101. Standing methodology committee for Patient-Centered Outcomes Research Institute (Section 6301, p. 1629)
102. Board of Governors for Patient-Centered Outcomes Research Institute (Section 6301, p. 1638)
103. Patient-Centered Outcomes Research Trust Fund (Section 6301(e), p. 1656)
104. Elder Justice Coordinating Council (Section 6703, p. 1773)
105. Advisory Board on Elder Abuse, Neglect, and Exploitation (Section 6703, p. 1776)
106. Grant program to create elder abuse forensic centers (Section 6703, p. 1783)
107. Grant program to promote continuing education for long-term care staffers (Section 6703, p. 1787)
108. Grant program to improve management practices and training (Section 6703, p. 1788)
109. Grant program to subsidize costs of electronic health records (Section 6703, p. 1791)
110. Grant program to promote adult protective services (Section 6703, p. 1796)
111. Grant program to conduct elder abuse detection and prevention (Section 6703, p. 1798)
112. Grant program to support long-term care ombudsmen (Section 6703, p. 1800)
113. National Training Institute for long-term care surveyors (Section 6703, p. 1806)
114. Grant program to fund State surveys of long-term care residences (Section 6703, p. 1809)
115. CLASS Independence Fund (Section 8002, p. 1926)
116. CLASS Independence Fund Board of Trustees (Section 8002, p. 1927)
117. CLASS Independence Advisory Council (Section 8002, p. 1931)
118. Personal Care Attendants Workforce Advisory Panel (Section 8002(c), p. 1938)
119. Multi-state health plans offered by Office of Personnel Management (Section 10104(p), p. 2086)
120. Advisory board for multi-state health plans (Section 10104(p), p. 2094)
121. Pregnancy Assistance Fund (Section 10212, p. 2164)
122. Value-based purchasing program for ambulatory surgical centers (Section 10301, p. 2176)
123. Demonstration project for payment adjustments to home health services (Section 10315, p. 2200)
124. Pilot program for care of individuals in environmental emergency declaration areas (Section 10323, p. 2223)
125. Grant program to screen at-risk individuals for environmental health conditions (Section 10323(b), p. 2231)
126. Pilot programs to implement value-based purchasing (Section 10326, p. 2242)
127. Grant program to support community-based collaborative care networks (Section 10333, p. 2265)
128. Centers for Disease Control Office of Minority Health (Section 10334, p. 2272)
129. Health Resources and Services Administration Office of Minority Health (Section 10334, p. 2272)
130. Substance Abuse and Mental Health Services Administration Office of Minority Health (Section 10334, p. 2272)
131. Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality Office of Minority Health (Section 10334, p. 2272)
132. Food and Drug Administration Office of Minority Health (Section 10334, p. 2272)
133. Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services Office of Minority Health (Section 10334, p. 2272)
134. Grant program to promote small business wellness programs (Section 10408, p. 2285)
135. Cures Acceleration Network (Section 10409, p. 2289)
136. Cures Acceleration Network Review Board (Section 10409, p. 2291)
137. Grant program for Cures Acceleration Network (Section 10409, p. 2297)
138. Grant program to promote centers of excellence for depression (Section 10410, p. 2304)
139. Advisory committee for young women?s breast health awareness education campaign (Section 10413, p. 2322)
140. Grant program to provide assistance to provide information to young women with breast cancer (Section 10413, p. 2326)
141. Interagency Access to Health Care in Alaska Task Force (Section 10501, p. 2329)
142. Grant program to train nurse practitioners as primary care providers (Section 10501(e), p. 2332)
143. Grant program for community-based diabetes prevention (Section 10501(g), p. 2337)
144. Grant program for providers who treat a high percentage of medically underserved populations (Section 10501(k), p. 2343)
145. Grant program to recruit students to practice in underserved communities (Section 10501(l), p. 2344)
146. Community Health Center Fund (Section 10503, p. 2355)
147. Demonstration project to provide access to health care for the uninsured at reduced fees (Section 10504, p. 2357)
148. Demonstration program to explore alternatives to tort litigation (Section 10607, p. 2369)
149. Indian Health demonstration program for chronic shortages of health professionals (S. 1790, Section 112, p. 24)*
150. Office of Indian Men?s Health (S. 1790, Section 136, p. 71)*
151. Indian Country modular component facilities demonstration program (S. 1790, Section 146, p. 108)*
152. Indian mobile health stations demonstration program (S. 1790, Section 147, p. 111)*
153. Office of Direct Service Tribes (S. 1790, Section 172, p. 151)*
154. Indian Health Service mental health technician training program (S. 1790, Section 181, p. 173)*
155. Indian Health Service program for treatment of child sexual abuse victims (S. 1790, Section 181, p. 192)*
156. Indian Health Service program for treatment of domestic violence and sexual abuse (S. 1790, Section 181, p. 194)*
157. Indian youth telemental health demonstration project (S. 1790, Section 181, p. 204)*
158. Indian youth life skills demonstration project (S. 1790, Section 181, p. 220)*
159. Indian Health Service Director of HIV/AIDS Prevention and Treatment (S. 1790, Section 199B, p. 258)*
*Section 10221, page 2173 of H.R. 3590 deems that S. 1790 shall be deemed as passed with certain amendments.
Your Friend,
Congressman Lee Terry
Hey maybe Hilliary’s plan in 1994 wasn’t such a bad idea after all…..Hill for VP…Hey Ho Biden must GOOOOOOOO
List of new agancies under the healthreform bill–Wonder what these all cost
Congressman Terry Lee didn’t point out that Canada’s universal health care bill was only 15 pages long.
Why so short and void of special interest crap? Because Canada was worried about providing healthcare, not feeding, appeasing and pleasing the special interest blood suckers.
We’re living in a joke system. It’s a sham and we’re the riled up marks.
http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20100414/bs_nm/us_shinsei_earnings
Japan’s Shensi bank set to report a billion-dollar loss on property writedowns.
All is well. The crisis is contained. The economy is recovering. Happy days are here again. The bailout has saved us.
You got it, dude. We should just hang it up — irrational exuberance at the end of this bubble has achieved immortality. Anyone who tries a rational approach in the face of it must wear a tinfoil hat.
Enron again.
And again, and again, and again, and again,… AAAARGH!!!!!
Lehman used ‘alter ego’ to shift risks
The New York Times’ Louise Story talks with Kai Ryssdal about a story she co-wrote involving a shadow bank that helped Lehman Brothers cover up risky investments that helped bring the company and economy to its knees.
PBear, don’t forget to feed your wife some crackers, water, and give her some light.