Bits Bucket For April 14, 2010
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The Housing Bubble
Examining the home price boom and its effect on owners, lenders, regulators, realtors and the economy as a whole.
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Name:Ben Jones
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Tin foil hat supposition:
Does anyone else here think that it might be possible that when Goldman Sachs threw in with Obama they made a deal? You leave the banks alone and we’ll give you health care.
I guess you watched the PBS Frontline last night on this? To be honest, I don’t think the banks had much of a stake in health care.
btw, I was disappointed with Frontline. The only new insights were how vindictive Max Baucus was, and AHIP (and that slimy Karen Ignani) demanding the mandate.
Dang, I missed it. I’ll have to watch it on line. That “demanding the mandate” is a real pisser.
I am most certain that Obama does whatever Goldman tells him to do. Does that answer your question?
The people should rise up against Goldman.
Goldman knows the sheeple would never uprise.
“I am most certain that Obama does whatever Goldman tells him to do. Does that answer your question?”
“Whether somebody’s belief is true is not a prerequisite for someone to believe it.”
I’m gonna have fun with that quote.
real estate refugee was asking what we thought. Have lots of fun with your quote tho.
You are so right. And I also believe that Bush got his wars and WallSteet got what they need.
You are so right. And I also believe that Bush got his wars and WallSteet got what they need.
”
and we will get our taxes raised to pay for all of it
Hmmm, I’m trying to remember… did Obama sponsor the the repeal of the Glass/Steagall Act or was that some Repubs?
Obama sponsor a bill?
Come on, who you kidding? he was busy voting present.
Even though the Bill was sponsored mostly by Pubs - if you look closely, you’ll find that most of the key drivers behind that bill were Dems - Dodd, Rubin, and Summers. Most especially Rubin, being that he had a vested interest in his new job at Citi waiting in the wings.
10 foreclosures for every home saved
“Only 168,708 homeowners have received long-term mortgage modifications under the president’s plan, as of February, a small fraction of the 6 million borrowers who are more than 60 days behind on their loans, according to the Congressional Oversight Panel’s latest report, released Wednesday.
The president’s foreclosure-prevention plan will likely assist only 1 million troubled borrowers, short of the administration’s original goal of up to 4 million homeowners. The program is funded with $50 billion in Troubled Assets Relief, or TARP, funds, putting it under the panel’s purview.
The panel’s report is the latest to slam the president’s foreclosure-prevention efforts. Last month two other government watchdogs released blistering reports that slammed the administration for poor implementation of the program and raised doubts that 4 million troubled borrowers could stay in their homes.
While the panel commends the Treasury Department for its push to convert more trial adjustments to long-term modifications, it lays out several concerns, including the long-term sustainability of the modified mortgages and the ultimate cost and goals of the program. Also, the panel is concerned that the half-dozen foreclosure-prevention programs launched by Treasury over the past year has resulted in confusion and delays.”
It goes without saying that this plan/program should have never been initiated. It’s a typical boondoggle, standing in the way of exactly what needs to and is happening in spite of the ‘plan’. There is a good reason for the foreclosure process.
Watchdog: Obama foreclosure plan leaves many out
Watchdog panel says Obama plan to ease foreclosure crisis does too little, comes too late
April 14, 2010, 3:43 am EDT
WASHINGTON (AP) — A watchdog panel overseeing the financial bailouts says the Obama administration’s flagship mortgage aid program lags well behind the foreclosure crisis and leaves too many families out.
The Congressional Oversight Panel says in a report released Wednesday that the administration projects only one million families will end up with lower monthly payments as a result of the program. The report says six million families are more than two months behind with their payments, and 200,000 more families receive foreclosure notices each month.
A year and a half after launching the program, “Treasury is still fighting to get its foreclosure programs off the ground,” Elizabeth Warren, who heads the independent panel set up by Congress, told reporters Tuesday.
Warren warned that borrowers who have their monthly payments lowered as a result of the program still could lose their homes because the payments remain high and many Americans are facing new financial strains.
“Redefault signals the single worst form of failure” by the Treasury Department, said Warren, who is a professor at Harvard Law School. “Billions of taxpayer dollars will be spent and families will nonetheless lose their homes.”
The main program gives money to mortgage investors and collection companies that reduce borrowers’ monthly payments
I like Elizabeth Warren, although I think she has a naive view of who is the “victim” homemoaner. She cares about the middle class, but doesn’t seem to seperate the wheat from the chaff, so to speak, when evaluating who deserves help.
oxide- You nailed the refi situation perfectly in your post below.
That seems a pretty fair assessment of Warren. CNBC this morning said rumors say she is the dark horse candidate for Supreme Court. That could be pretty interesting.
She did separate the wheat from the chaff while being interviewed by Rachael Maddow last night. She said there are people that should never have been put in homes and should not receive help.
I think maybe the sympathetic turn of phrase is merely a shibboleth among the chattering classes. Or maybe anoblesse oblige type of thing. They don’t really know or care what the personal story is, or think it rude to mention.
It’s still irritating however.
” Last month two other government watchdogs released blistering reports that slammed the administration for poor implementation of the program and raised doubts that 4 million troubled borrowers could stay in their homes.”
When I grow up and finally get out out of junior high school, I wanna be a watchdog for the government. Then I could tell them, “Hey, you missed a spot over there!”, or “No good, you have to start over and give everybody their money all over again!”
Plus I would get good feeling I made a difference in people’s lives, just like their drug dealer.
I can just see me now, issuin’ critical reports and slammin’ programs and all.
Also, being a government program watchdog has gotta be about the easiest thing. Waste, ineffectiveness, and plain old fraud abound in every social service program in the government.
I’d be like writing scathing reports on the poor job done by a pig the government hired to be a janitor. And a particularly dull pig at that.
I really want some internals on this six million FB’s. How many are flippers? How many are second homes? How many are liar loans facilitated by fee-hungry brokers? How many could pay the teaser nut but never afford the fully amort ( <— this is a big chunk)? How many are boat-and-boob-job refi’s (<— another big chunk)? How many did everything right but lost their jobs? How many are medical? How many “deserve” these modifications? That’s what the O Admin has to decide.
Oh my gosh, I spit coffee over the “boat and boob job refi’s”. That is awesome!
You can’t expect the lady of the house to go out on the new boat with her old…. oh, never mind.
boat and boob job refi’s
New HBB descriptive of the month.
PBBS = Pro Bass & Boob Shop
Can you get a principal reduction on boobs?
Would you want to?
We had an MSA once, max of $2000/year. But the boob job for the ex- was $4000-5000 at the time.
No problem, sez I………get one done in one year, and the other one the next……
The ex-, for some reason, didn’t appreciate the brilliance of my plan.
She lacked imagination, or a doctor willing to work on New Year’s Eve.
+1 Carl, for New Year’s Eve.
X-GSfixer: ROFLMAO
My ex lost a testicle to cancer. He never had it cosmetically altered. Talk about putting lipstick on a pig.
Carl: Touché
yeah, trademark that one oxide!
“Yeah…We’d like a fast Pro bass boat and 2 bobbers to go…I mean a boat and 2 boobers…auh, heck…never mind !”
As usual Oxide; deserves got nothing to do with it.
Particularly true in this case.
Best to let nature take it’s course.
I’d like to see those internals too, but I have to say it is very unlikely that the data was ever collected. Not that it couldn’t have been, but it probably wasn’t. Once you do a study on a program it would be near impossible to go back and say we need to talk to everyone again and collect more info. Not sure if it is really impossible (this involves the Paperwork Reduction Act of all things), but very, very hard.
Congress critters can sometimes get some of that information, but they can’t get enough of it to be statistically valid.
Hmm, polly, I guess that’s true for some it. It would be pretty hard to mine to existing FB’s info for, say, medical bills. But some of the info must be easy to access. Was it a refi or not, was it a primary residence or not, was there true verification of income or not? Some quick litmus to put them at the back of the line.
I guess you could talk to FB again, when they fill out the app for a mod. If they don’t apply, it doesn’t matter what their situation is. This is why the process is so slow.
If you ask in any kind of official capacity, most borrowers would say that their HELOC is for “home repairs/improvement” if only so the interest can be tax deductible.
And boob jobs would be “emergency medical expenses”
It isn’t anywhere near as simple as that:
http://www.irs.gov/publications/p936/ar02.html#en_US_publink1000230008
Click on “home equity debt” for the limits on interest deductibility of loans secured by a house but not used for home acquisition or improvements.
Basic rule is you can deduct interest on up to $100K but ONLY if that $100K doesn’t bring the total debt secured by the house up above its fair market value.
Very interesting. I had no idea that the deductibility was in any way related to FMV.
Ten foreclosures for every home “saved”?
A typical misleading MSM headline. What it should say is “One foreclosure deferred for a future reckoning day for each ten foreclosures taken back by banks.”
I think Obama’s program will CAUSE more foreclosures than it saves:
-Underwater neighbor (irresponsible HELOC-addict) gets principal reduction under program.
-Underwater FB next door with good credit hears about is and can’t get reduction and decides that it just isn’t fair. Mails keys.
-Comps continue to decline and FBs walk in vicious circlcl.
-There goes the neighborhood.
-Another great intervention by the government.
Just think of the typos as a touch of personal-flair.
ic bt is a circlcl still round. A rose by any other name would still have thorns. BTW, we are going for food stamps, Oregon Health Plan, etc. We make 25k per year, wife has two jobs, I sub teach, we own a house outright but life is still darned expensive(think healthcare)
No guilt, it is just that we qualify and our jobs don’t cover cost of living even with a paid off house. And wifes house that we paid 2x too much for, the bank of amerika can have er back, after the down and three years of payments, we have 170k into it and that is what they are selling for now. We also paid over 100k in capital gains taxes when our principle residence became a rental while I edumacated myself to become a high paid teacher (they are not hiring any here, now, so I sub), and it hit the lotto for us, and got us to thinkin houses were goo as investments. Flipping actually did work out pretty good for 15 years for us, let the two of us be home for our kids for the most part. I am sure they benefitted from actual face time with the old man and younger lady.
Now we want one to live in and Bofa may just be right about its 7500 per month foreclosure rate rising a tad this year, as we just decided to quit on wife’s mortgage. BTW I was wondering if the 45,000 figure from yesterday was a new higher monthly rate of foreclosuses for them or their eventual total inventory after X more months of 7500 each month, with less than that being sold. Article was not clear.
The house that we bought for 117k we are renting for $825 per month, even for PB that sounds like a decent deal, as his rent is 3X that but home values in his area are 6X that, which is why HE wont buy now, according to him.
Gotta go sub….
Mike, I’m curious. Are there restrictions on asset level to qualify for food stamps? Are certain assets excluded? Do you know if the rules are specific to Oregon’s program or if they are nationwide?
Thanks for anything you want to share…..
Pretty sure it’s state assistance. oregonhelpsdotorg has a calculator and based on their approximations, even though we only have $500 per month housing costs (not counting the wife’s mortgaged home on the approximator calculator, no inquiries as per assets, just income and housing overhead costs just the house we will be landing in), we qualify for $660/month in Oregon Trail (rechargable debit card to buy the red bull/other junk) food assistance, free health care for the kiddies thru Oregon Health plan (based on a lottery, though). Have to come in with pay stubs to qualify for the food aid.
That may diminish our cost of living just enough to pay for insurances, gas to go to our menial jobs(wife has 2 part time jobs, no benefits, I sub, also no bennies), and not have to HELOC our new home for short term expenses.
Wife’s new coworker is the only worker in her home, hubby is looking after layoff, three kids, they pull in $35/day. Times 4 days a week. Only for 9 months a year(lunch lady, hey someone has to feed the kids). Thinking she must have HUD federal assistance for rent to boot, cuz $2.50 per head per day income ain’t livin large!
As for wifes 2k/month mortgage, fuggitaboutit. Our dream of paying off the dream house with flippin gains is in gutter. Its…survival mode
Another friend has masters in ed, fluent in 3 languages, can’t get job as teacher. Lucky his wife did the 2yr nursing program out of high school, she makes 80k per year. Teachers with 6 or 7 years of college make 35k.
Myself, I could go to law school because teaching license expires in 2013 w/o Oregon required masters degree for a permanent teaching licence.
Enough info polly? thnx for asking
BTW the light bandido charges were dropped by the DA, but I have to attend a community accountability class; total cost $230 and 4 hours time.
BTW the light bandido charges were dropped by the DA, but I have to attend a community accountability class; total cost $230 and 4 hours time.
That is great news. You got off easy even though you didn’t do anything wrong in the first place. You just got wrapped up with a nutball.
Good luck. Things will get better.
Thanks. At least she is not squatting in our unit, she never left the nabe on April 1 as her landlords promised. They also said they fully expected to have the sheriff escort her out, but not at all in the way we expect to be escorted out. We’ll see what process takes longer, eviction or foreclosure. Our foreclosing could take awhile cuz it may be tied to a bankrupcy on wife’s end.
Her 725 fico ain’t good for a 500 loan, and mine is still fine, we also hope for her lunch lady job to segue into something better(6 hrs come with benefits, she is at 3.5).
Polly says there may be a dearth of BK judges and our counties are BK central($2.50 per head per day pays few bills); SO many peeps are asking wife at the grocery how to use their new Oregon Trail food stamp cards. Police officers, teachers, not typical welfare recipients.
Also landed a semi-regular sub gig 30 minutes from here which beats driving 3 hours to the coast and living in my man cave (22ft travel trailer) just to make $20/hour
Look we all know its more money thrown down the rat hole.
But it amazes me there is no accountability…if OH said we will help those who took out money to finance an operation or emergency medical expenses for the family, or took in an elderly to avoid a nursing home , or to actually expand and upgrade the house…and all others be damned none of us would have a problem with that.
I understand the feeling, dj, but a person who took out the money to pay for health care “sold” the house to the bank just as surely as the person who “sold” the house to the bank to buy a hummer. The fact that we feel sorry for the person who was sick, doesn’t actually change the fact that the equity was withdrawn.
And I have to say, as a lawyer, losing your house when you can’t make the payments is NOT punishment for bad behavior. Contract law isn’t about punishment. We have no debtors prisons in the US and that is for a reason. Losing your house (and possibly getting sued if the sale doesn’t cover your debt) is contract law and civil, not criminal.
Not being a punishment doesn’t mean it is fun.
Agreed Polly……but saving ones live is far more important then a hummer and I would give the person a break.
If we can’t have a little compassion for an emergency loan instead of wanton waste, then can the big OH please help me with my rent for 6 months…I promise not to get a face lift or a tummy tuck..
I went and looked at 10 foreclosed houses here in Sacramento yesterday. Two things are different this year: they almost all had new paint and carpet, and they are higher priced. Let’s see if people pay what they’re asking.
what do you mean, truly at the foreclosure stage, or foreclosed and already bought to flip? Or improved by the bank - ?
No, they are new bank-owned listings.
Last year the flippers bought them, fixed them up, and resold them. I don’t think the flippers can afford them this year!
REAL ESTATE
Signs seen of a housing rebound in Southern California
The median price paid for a home rose 14% in March to $285,000 from a year earlier, according to MDA DataQuick. Higher-priced coastal markets saw more activity, and fewer foreclosures were for sale.
I don’t think it will last in SoCal. They have many, many foreclosures-in-waiting down there.
Troll
better get out there and buy!
Morgan Stanley Fund May Lose $5.4 Billion: Report
14 Apr 2010 ~ CNBC.com with Reuters
Morgan Stanley has told investors that its $8.8 billion real-estate fund may lose nearly two-thirds of its money due to bad investments, according to The Wall Street Journal, which reviewed fund documents.
But by mid-2009, the firm had already written down those losses, according to quarterly financial reports.
The $5.4 billion loss would be the biggest in the history of private equity real estate investing, according to the Journal.
Morgan Stanley owns less than 20 percent of the MSref IV International Fund, a person familiar with the matter told CNBC.
The company has been writing down its investment in this and other real estate investments since the second half of 2008 and stopped taking writedowns on the investment last year, according to quarterly Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) filings.
Good.
+1 Indeed; I’ll second that motion!
“The report said a Morgan Stanley spokeswoman declined to comment about the losses, but stressed that the bank has a long-term approach to the real estate market. ”
So losing 2/3 of your investment is a long term approach? Buying into a speculative bubble is a long term approach? Hey, I am going to the casino and put all my savings on red. How about that for a long term approach to investing? But not to fear, nothing that a tax payer funded bailout couldn’t fix.
And this is a Bad thing???????? We need to put these rich arrogant “private investors” in their place and losing 2/3 of their money is a good start.
Slowly, slowly they reveal the true worth of their Level 3 assets.
In the next 6 months, how much further do you see the real estate market going down? Private and commercial.
Iceland or the US?
IMO it depends on where you’re looking and what you’re looking at.
I’m looking at homes in the following, 85310 and 85383. Funny thing is that some sellers (mostly banks/short sales) are raising the wishing prices while others are lowering.
In the end I wouldn’t be surprised to see them going down 10% in your time frame because that’s only about $20,000. Higher cost homes could go down even more. There’s just too much inventory and not enough middle class people feeling secure in their jobs to make a move. I think the lower you go the less loss you’ll see.
Regarding Commercial RE, the Phoenix Metro area is full of vacant properties and I know for a fact that landlords are lowering their rents by substantial amounts. My future boss said that he got a deal for a new office building, never been occupied, for a year of free rent and $10 per sq ft less in the next 9 years.
Many parts of the US that saw doubling or tripling of property values in the last 10 years haven’t dropped more than 5-10% yet. Those places have a long way to go.
It takes a while for prices to fall when banks have yet to foreclose on borrowers who haven’t made a payment in 30 months.
Testing.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2010/04/13/bank-of-america-breaks-fr_n_536283.html
BAC and Citi now supposedly in favor of cram-downs and letting judges modify mortgages, which according to this article is an attempt to “help” FBs. Wrong. Its an indicator of the magnitude of the foreclosures these two banks are looking at and their belated recognition that cutting principal and interest might mitigate their losses on the loan. Of course they’ll expect to be “rewarded” for this generosity with more taxpayer money.
This is huge news. A cramdown with BK attached, decided on a case-by-case basis by a BK judge? This is what I have been asking for for months. Senator Dick “the banks own this place” Durbin must be delighted. Now, if only these BK prices will be recorded as a comp…
But Sammy, you are right. They are spinning this as “help” but really they are saving their own patooties.
However, this may not be that bad, taxpayer-wise. I’d rather my tax money go to help out an FB on a partial cram-down, than watch even more of my tax-money fill the mark-to-market 2006 price via indiscriminate buying of MBS via Fannie/Freddie. Less principle means more money in the pockets of deserving FB’s (yes they exist).
But why now, BAC? Perhaps this is the result of Fannie and Freddie looking for fraudulant mortages and shoving them back down the banks’ throats (I remember that little piece of underreported news). Or perhaps the banks finally figured out that all those failed government programs weren’t failed at all; they only “failed” in the sense that the programs really weren’t going to crap candy for everybody. The shadow inventory is deteriorating while the banks wait for a pony named Godot. Could it be that the gov is quietly teaching the moral hazard lesson under the noses of the MSM?
Want a wild a$$ed guess? This is a way to slow things down. It is reasonable for the government and tell the banks that they have to make a decision 45 days (or 30 days or 60 days or whatever) after receiving all the information and if they don’t, they are going to get fined. It is hard to actually prove you have sent the information, but a video camera and a fax machine and you can pull it off. To even begin to address all the applications in a timely manner, the banks would have to hire people - lots of people - and they would need to have reasonable financial/accounting skills. Could get expensive.
However, there is a very limited pool of bankruptcy judges. Very limited. And the banks can’t hire new ones. So getting a final decision out of a bankruptcy court for a few million applications? Could take years.
Yes, they might try to get reimbursed for the loss on the cram down, but even if there is no reimbursement, the value to them of the time in which they aren’t forced to recognize the losses is even more valuable.
The shadow inventory is deteriorating while the banks wait for a pony named Godot.
Snort. You’re on fire today.
I think this is another loss-cutting, face-saving effort by the banks. Sammy is correct; the number of foreclosures looming, along with increasingly dim prospects for recouping anything close to the original numbers on the books, makes the prospect of cramdowns somewhat palatable. A 30% reduction in interest and principal that stays viable is better than 25 cents on the dollar in foreclosure after X years of no payments whatsoever …
“The shadow inventory is deteriorating while the banks wait for a pony named Godot.”
Good one!
Never forget that the destruction of the shadow inventory by time is a goal. That way, there will be fewer affordable houses in the future.
But if you forgive mortgage, let’s suppose Bernanke goes berzerk with the printing presses and we have significant house inflation. All those FB’s get to keep all the housing gains, tax free, on the backs of taxpayers. They should not be entitled to any bit of future appreciation.
I’ve got a couple of bail out feeds appearing on my FB page. After reading HBB for so many years I guess I forgot where the general public’s heads are at. They want blood but they really don’t understand the implications of destroying contracts and pissing off investors.
But that’s how it always is.
The PTB push too far and then the masses push back.. blindly.
And the PTB always think they have it under control… until they don’t.
Hello?
Radical Bunny ordered to pay $190M in restitution
Phoenix Business Journal
Radical Bunny LLC was ordered Tuesday to pay nearly $190 million in restitution for the alleged fraudulent offering and selling of two unregistered deed of trust investment programs.
The penalty was assessed through a consent order, agreed upon by the trustee who is overseeing the Chapter 11 bankruptcy reorganization of Radical Bunny. The consent order does not imply that Radical Bunny is admitting to wrongdoing.
About 900 people invested with Radical Bunny, which pooled the investments and made unsecured loans to Mortgages Ltd., the commercial construction lender that filed for Chapter 11 in 2008. Mortgages Ltd. now is being operated as ML Managers LLC, an entity created to administer existing loans and to liquidate assets.
Radical Bunny’s bankruptcy will stay the ACC’s order for now.
“The $189.8 million is restitution ordered to repay investors, however, payment of this restitution is stayed because the company is in bankruptcy,” said ACC spokesperson Rebecca Wilder. “As the investors are creditors in the bankruptcy case, they would receive payment as a result of the bankruptcy case.”
The ACC’s order regarding Radical Bunny does not include administrative actions that are pending against Radical Bunny’s members, accountants Tom Hirsch and Harish Shah and husband and wife Howard and Berta “Bunny” Walder.
Wilder said the four individuals face a hearing in June. Much of Radical Bunny’s money was in turn loaned to Tempe Land Co. via Mortgages Ltd. Tempe Land built the Centerpoint high-rise condominium project in downtown Tempe. After Tempe Land sunk $135 million in the yet unfinished project, ML Partners filed to foreclose, then took back the property earlier this month. Mark Winkleman, chief financial officer for ML Partners, said he is weighing proposals from other developers who want to finish the project.
“Radical Bunny”? One would think that flippantly named LLCs might be a red flag for “investors.”
+1. Names like that are so 1998 dot-com.
Radical Bunny ordered to pay $190M in restitution
Hoppin’ Change
If you invest one dime with a company with a name like that, you should kill yourself.
Fed boss has bittersweet message on recovery, jobs
Fed boss to face lawmakers’ questions on rebound’s staying power, relief on high unemployment
WASHINGTON (AP) — Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke goes to Capitol Hill on Wednesday with a bittersweet message: The economic recovery is taking hold but won’t be strong enough to quickly drive down unemployment.
Bernanke’s out-of-the box thinking during the 2008 financial crisis helped prevent the Great Recession from turning into the second Great Depression. Now, however, the Fed chief faces the delicate task of making sure the recovery lasts well after massive government stimulus fades later this year.
To foster the recovery, Bernanke and other Fed officials have repeatedly pledged to hold interest rates at record lows for an “extended period.” The hope is that low rates will entice people and businesses to spend more, generating enough economic activity to help keep the recovery going.
How do “low rates” entice people to spend more? Where exactly does the Consumer (65% of the economy) see these low rates? Not in their credit cards. Not in wage increases.
In mortgage rates? Ha, you won’t fool the smart money with that, and we know from the fizzle of the $8K that smart money is the only money that’s left.
The only thing these rates are doing is letting banks borrow low and lend high so they can pay their bills. Supply side econ off the backs of Main Street.
$30K car loan at 0% over 60 months = $500
$30K car loan at 8% over 60 months = $608
Savings = $6480.
With a house, the argument can be made that lower interest rate = lower payment, but also equals higher price. So it’s a wash in the end.
Not so much with a car. A $30K car won’t be sold for $36,480K with 0% financing.
I’m not saying everyone should run out and buy a new car with 0% interest. I’m simply respoding to your question of “who does it benefit”
You obviously haven’t gone car shopping.
You can get -0% financing…
Or you can get 5.9% financing and 6000 dealer cash back.
You’re right. Last time I bought a new car was 10+ years ago. Last time I financed a car was 15+ years ago.
Regardless, the car costs less with the 0% available than without it.
Bingo. However, don’t tell the sales guy you plan to pay cash too early in the process. I think they get a little extra for selling the financing.
Also, people who need 5 year loans shouldn’t be buying $30K new cars.
Actually, it’s cheapest to finance it at 5.9% then mail in the full amount left on your first payment. That’s how my wife and I bought her last car. Save 5k dollars in exchange for ~$234 in interest on the first payment.
Gotta game the system however you can.
sfbubblebuyer,
How’s the house coming along?
I’m caulking windows, painting the exterior, and figuring out how to fix the patio area up to be more kid friendly.
Owning is hell. Don’t do it! Or at least wait until 2012 or later. Don’t catch a knife like I did.
That being said, I do like my house.
How about if we have a HBB Home Tour in 2014? We can take turns having parties at the houses everyone will buy during the fall of the bubble. And anyone who doesn’t buy a house doesn’t have to have a party as their reward.
“we know from the fizzle of the $8K that smart money is the only money that’s left”
That may be true overall but we’re seeing bidding wars around here. It’s laughable….especially since none of these houses are over the top gotta haves. It’s gotta be the credit expiration which will probably be extended anyway. These people are complete boobs. Ya gotta wonder how many are going to look around in about a year and kick themselves for bidding up to grab their little piece of paradise. The vascillation around here is tough to keep up with. 6 mos ago beautiful houses were sitting and experiencing price cuts into affordable ranges. Now the marginally presentable homes are being bid up. These people have got to have fully bought hook, line, and sinker that the worst of times are behind us. Either that or connecting dots is not their forte’.
Ki,
The low rates don’t necessarily pass along to consumers. Consumer interest rates are controlled by the bond market.
The idea here is the banks get the money pretty much free and any kind of return is profit. They can play all sorts of games with duration of investments. Play hedge games. And give people 30% interest credit cards.
As for the high price/low interest vs high interest/low price.
Take a look at all the Fu*ked Borrowers, FB, these days. They all bought at a high price with a low rate. How much good did that do for them?
And I clearly said that for houses it’s a wash since lower rates = higher prices and vice versa.
For cars, boats, TVs, vacations to Hawaii, 0% rates make the products/services cheaper for consumers.
You are assuming low rates to Fed bank members translates to low rates for consumers. If the bond market becomes concerned with inflation the interest rates for comsumers goes up.
Bonds are competing for the free money from the Fed with consumers.
So a low fed funds rate can mean higher rates.
Anyhow, since credit is money, you get inflation of other prices as well. So, car prices are often pointed out as another bubble. Similarly with vacations though all of those are expended after use, unlike a house purchase.
Ki is also referring to big ticket items with their own financing infrastructure — things that people can clearly hold off on. Interest rates are not to help with food or gas or Wal-mart.
Ah, you guys are nuts or just can’t get it.
The bank has money and takes a look at who it’s going to loan the money to.
Well look here, you can get a no risk return from the US Govt on some bonds. Or go with some low risk municipal bonds. Or lend it to some joesixpack.
Turns out joesix has a slightly higher risk premium than the bond market.
You and I are not going to get a loan from the Fed. We get them from megabank. Hence we compete with the bond market for money and that sets the rates.
The Fed could start paying banks to take money and we still are not getting interest free loans except as sucker ploys to get us to run up debt.
Now, if the bond market believes a low rate is going to cause inflation, they will not buy treasuries unless the rates of return is higher. Hence your competition for the banks money is the government. The govt running big debts means more competition for the money as well!
A low fed fund rate can mean higher rates to you, joe/janesixpack. OK?
If you don’t get why buying at a low rate and high price is bad, look at all the f*cked borrowers today. They got really fractional rates if you look at the repayment terms. Those neg-am or I/O teaser products served to drive up prices. They need to sell due to job loss and it is a disaster. Bankruptcy. Can’t pay off the note.
And for RVs, boats, luxury SUVs… it is all a market. SUVs are the furthest removed because they depriciate a lot faster and the glut can go away quicker. Boats/RVs/Houses will linger much much longer.
We could get into a long discussion here but it’s basic economics. Oxide, can’t believe you’ve been here this long and don’t get it. Drink some coffee and slap yourself a couple times.
That low rate/ high price thing is at the root of this crisis.
I know that it’s better to buy at a low price and high rate.
I guess I’m confused as to what is meant by “consumer spending.” I think of small things that you don’t need a loan for: food gas socks.
If you are done slapping yourself.
Ki mentioned housing at a high cost with a low rate was a wash and I disagree with that. If it was true we wouldn’t have the current crisis.
As for big ticket items like she mentioned. Well, the financing structure is the same as anything else. You are talking out a loan just the same. Maybe securitized too.
My other point was about the connection between the Fed fund rate and interest rates for consumers was not dirrect. One would have to ask why aren’t mortgages at 3.5% now? I think I was clear enough.
We could also get into a discussion about inflationary/deflationary enviroments. Flight to safety causing some kind of cash crunch, a high rate deflationary enviroment. Again, since the banks are trying to attract capital in that enviroment a low fed fund rate doesn’t necessarily get passed to consumers either. Kind of had that in 08 where the run on the banks was occuring. Course rates didn’t get too high cause it was over pretty fast.
Anyhow, Ki is new and sounds like her head is still full of MSM mush.
Another portion of the hangover… people made poor educational choices. Still remember with the boom growing back in 03; they interviewed some HS kids preparing to drop out. The kids said “why should I stay in school if I can make 20$ an hour working now?”.
Anyhow, I guess those kids are learning that lesson now.
The even poorer educational choices were made by those who went into debt six figures for a bubble era college degree that has proved to be worthless, as the only jobs available pay less than $30k per year. You can always go back to school, but you can’t take away that debt load.
High school drop outs making $20hr?
Doing what?
You don’t want to know.
Construction! Another blessing from the bubble. People going into real estate or finance or brokerages or construction.
A lot of people are going to night school.
I live in the 4th largest city in America, a developers wet dream of a city, and no high school students, let alone drop outs, were making $20hr.
Hell, the licensed trade guys with years of experience were barely making that much.
But again, that’s just here.
Lot’s of youngsters were making at least that working in IT.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702303695604575182022093645864.html?mod=WSJ_hps_LEFTWhatsNews
Morgan Stanley has told investors in its $8.8 billion real-estate fund that it may lose nearly two-thirds of its money from bum property investments, according to fund documents reviewed by The Wall Street Journal.
That would likely make it the biggest dollar loss—$5.4 billion—in the history of private-equity real-estate investing. Over the past 20 years, Morgan Stanley’s real-estate unit was one of the biggest buyers of property around the world, doing some $174 billion in deals since 1991, mostly with money raised from pension funds, college endowments and foreign investors. The losses come from investments in properties such as the European Central Bank’s Frankfurt headquarters, a big development project in Tokyo and InterContinental hotels across Europe, among others.
The loss also represents a huge challenge for the firm as it tries to resuscitate its Morgan Stanley Real Estate Funds business, known as Msref.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aEFsMieANo6A&pos=2
Meanwhile, the “contained” Greek crisis keeps percolating up as the wiser segments of the market are shunning their bonds, and yet another of the problematic PIIGS - Portugal - is starting to go south, too.
All is well. Borrow and spend. It’s morning in America all over again.
All is well. Borrow and spend. It’s morning in America all over again ??
I agree Sammy…I am quite concerned about a “event”….Something we don’t expect or it is low on the radar…Such as; A Israel strike on Iran…Then watch all the “happy talk” go poof…
I think Israel would need our help to project force into Iran. They would be pushed on range for their fighters and don’t have the sat capability for guidance.
Iran is far away for Israel. The F16 has a range of about 2200 miles. Tehran is about 990 miles. So, they could make it there with a minimal payload. They’d have to fly a long way over Jordan/Iraq/Syria, not sure on the route here, proper with external fuel tanks. That means with minimal payload.
They also have minimal intel capabilities with several countries on the way.
They probably don’t have good intel for precise targeting with out our help either even if they could get to the area.
To do enough damage they’d probably have to rig up a nuke.
I’m not really sure about their missle programs either. I doubt they have good enough guidance to take out a silo. Most likely they would have to attack cities. That was the russian plan too. They know their guidance system wasn’t that good so plan was to bomb populated soft targets.
While I might have some concerns about Israel, I don’t think they’d go for mass murder of millions in a premptive war unless their survival in extreme danger.
Maybe their small joke of a navy could do something? Again, not without US support.
They’ve got a reasonable sized airforce with about 300 planes. Maybe they’d risk some of them on a mission like that.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/7587972/Greece-still-at-risk-of-debt-spiral-says-George-Soros.html
Mega-speculator and vulture George Soros says Greece still circling the drain. He made a killing shorting the British Pound in 1992; looks like he’s going for a reprise with the Euro, a dead-currency-walking if there ever was one.
Yeah…Something that everyone says won’t happen and then it does…
Interest hypothesis on George Soros and the financial meltdown. I’m not a conspiracy freak, but nothing seems too outlandish anymore.
Long, but interesting.
George Soros, Open Society, Shadow Party
2008 Market Crash Should be Investigated
By Jeff Lukens Wednesday, April 7, 2010
Almost two years after the mortgage crisis and stock market crash, no one seems to wonder about the “September surprise” that shifted the 2008 presidential election to an unknown leftist politician who had been elected to the Senate only two years before. A pulp-fiction writer could hardly have created a more contrived and bizarre story. But this was not make-believe. No, it is now our own gritty reality show that we only wish we could turn off.
The week of Sept. 15, 2008, was a debacle of huge proportions. On Monday, Lehman Brothers filed for bankruptcy while other lending institutions lined up like dominoes teetering on the edge of bankruptcy. But the week was hardly over. On Thursday, an electronic run on the banks occurred. In an unprecedented move, the Treasury and the Federal Reserve had to act together to stop what had become a full-fledged panic. On Saturday, Sept. 20, The Wall Street Journal recounted events of that previous Thursday:
“Instead of lining up at bank windows, investors were unloading financial assets on their PCs. Credit markets had seized up, to the point that even routine daily settlements had stopped until banks had the actual securities or cash in hand.”
“Investors were rushing out of these [Treasury and Federal Reserve] funds—$105 billion out of $1.8 trillion on Thursday alone—which in turn caused the funds to redeem their commercial paper investments.”
“Issuers of that paper then had to find new funders, which in a pinch are banks. But jittery banks were refusing to accept paper from even worthy companies amid the panic, creating a larger credit breakdown. In response, Treasury will now insure nonbank money-market fund deposits for the next year, to slow money-fund redemptions.”
For such a large and coordinated exodus of funds to occur in U.S. markets, something more than individual “investors” at their PCs had to be in play. Large and well-managed hedge and mutual funds were undoubtedly behind much of the move.
A few months later on a C-Span interview, Rep. Paul Kanjorski, House Capital Markets Subcommittee Chair, described that day:
“On Thursday at about 11 o’clock in the morning the Federal Reserve noticed a tremendous drawdown of money market accounts in the United States , to the tune of $550 billion was being drawn out in a matter of an hour or two. The Treasury opened up its window to help. It pumped $105 billion in the system and quickly realized that they could not stem the tide; we were having an electronic run on the banks. They decided to close the operation, close down the money accounts and announce a guarantee of $250,000 per account so there wouldn’t be further panic out there.”
The $550 Billion withdrawn in an hour or two that Rep. Kanjorski refers to in his statement has never been independently confirmed or refuted.
In mid-September, John McCain was ahead of Barack Obama in some polls by about 3 percent. By Oct. 10, the S&P 500 Index had lost 25% of its value from what it had been a month before. The crash was a major calamity for the McCain Campaign. And now, with Obama in the White House, it has become a calamity for us all.
The fact remains that the identities of those who withdrew their money that week were never disclosed. And, knowingly or not, they created a panic that altered the course of the election. One can only wonder whether something more than normal market forces was at work.
Courtesy of Barney Frank and Chris Dodd, the crisis came about by the uncertain value of subprime securities held by Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, banks, saving and loans, and other lending institutions. A declining market in itself is not noteworthy, but to induce a panic in the midst of a presidential campaign, if ever proven, would be reprehensible and an outrage to the American electorate.
While the stock market collapse was a disaster for your average IRA or 401(k) account, some investors benefited handsomely. It is widely agreed that hedge funds profited by selling short the collapsing market in 2008, and chief among them was George Soros’ hedge fund. Soros may have personally had the motivation, method, and opportunity to trigger the crash.
Soros’ overseas-based hedge fund evades much scrutiny, and its activities that week left almost no trail. Could Soros and his hedge fund be behind many of the withdrawals of that week, and particularly on that Thursday? We need to know. The massive outflow of U.S. funds to offshore accounts that critical week during the campaign could be a coincidence, but it is doubtful.
George Soros is a multi-billionaire answerable to no one. Hastening a market meltdown to give the election to Barack Obama would fit his pattern of profiting while destroying the social order of his target country. Triggering a crash in 2008 would also serve his political investments.
Soros is obsessed with power. He wants a One World Government, redistribution of wealth, open borders, and universal health care. He is determined to change America forever by deconstructing its sovereignty and ability to defend itself. Soros was a huge backer of Barack Obama, and now his anointed president is determined to change America to their mutual view.
Soros made his fortune by short selling currencies and then pouring substantial amounts of his private wealth into organizations to subvert various nations. He nearly bankrupted the Bank of England by shorting the pound in 1992. He wrecked the Malaysian economy in 1998, and subsequently that of Indonesia as well. He is responsible for stirring-up instability in Africa, the Balkans, Eastern Europe , and the former Soviet republics.
Over the years, Soros has positioned himself to take control of the Democrat Party through the hundreds of 527 organizations he has helped financed. These organizations have become a “Shadow Party” unto themselves, and manipulate public opinion for their own end.
Among them: the National Education Association, ACORN, AFL-CIO, American Federation of Teachers, The Media Fund, the Open Society Institute, Planned Parenthood League, the Sierra Club, America Coming Together, the Huffington Post, Moveon.org. If a left-wing organization is in the news, it has probably received money from George Soros.
Why have the identities never been reported of those who withdrew funds that week? Shouldn’t there be even some curiosity about an event that wiped out the jobs and life savings of so many people? And why has there been no follow-up inquiry by into Rep. Kanjorski’s statement? There needs to be a public investigation concerning the amounts and offshore destinations of the funds withdrawn from U.S. markets that precipitated the crash.
Did an unwritten partnership exist between George Soros and Barack Obama? Could Soros, through Obama, be seeking a “velvet revolution” in the dismantling of our nation as he has done elsewhere? These questions need further investigation. With the Alinskyite tactics employed by Team Obama, none of this is beyond the realm of possibility.
Americans recoil at the thought of having their elections manipulated by outsiders. As long as Democrats control Congress, there surely will never be an effective inquiry into this affair. Perhaps a GOP victory this November will allow a thorough examination finally to begin. Add this to the many investigations the GOP will need to make when they finally take back Congress
I love this guy. George Soros created the financial crisis single-handedly. And we silly HBBers thought it was so much more complicated. We’ve been wasting our time these past 6 years trying to figure out the housing industrial complex.
But if George is that powerful we should fear not. He’ll fix everything in 2012 just in time to keep Obama in office for another four years.
Sheesh. I hate simple-minded political hacks.
Fed Shouldn’t Reveal Crisis Loans, Banks Vow to Tell High Court
April 14 (Bloomberg) — The biggest U.S. commercial banks will take their fight against disclosure of Federal Reserve lending in 2008 to the Supreme Court if necessary, the top lawyer for an industry-owned group said.
Continued legal appeals will delay or block the first public look at details of the central bank’s $2 trillion in emergency lending during the 2008 financial crisis. The Clearing House Association LLC, a group that includes Bank of America Corp. and JPMorgan Chase & Co., joined the Fed in defense of a lawsuit brought by Bloomberg LP, the parent company of Bloomberg News, seeking release of records related to four Fed lending programs.
The U.S. Court of Appeals in Manhattan ruled March 19 that the central bank must release the documents. A three-judge panel of the appellate court rejected the Fed’s argument that disclosure would stigmatize borrowers and discourage banks from seeking emergency help.
“Our member banks are very concerned about real-time disclosure of information that could cause a run on the banks,” said Paul Saltzman, the group’s general counsel, in an interview yesterday. “We’re not going to let the Second Circuit opinion stand without seeking a review.”
Regardless of whether the Fed appeals, the Clearing House will take the next legal step by asking for a review by the full appellate court, Saltzman, 49, said at his office in New York. If the ruling is unfavorable, the bank group will petition the Supreme Court, he said.
Why do we need to know the truth when there is a party to attend and we are all invited. …what?..only the banks got the invite?…Well nevermind.
If the banks are healthy now, who cares if they get “stigmatized?”
They are healthy now… right?
I AM THE GREAT AND WONDERFUL OZ!
I moved about 12 month ago. As with any move, changing the address turns out to be quite a hassle.
It took 3 attempts to get Shittybank (credit card and checking) to change my address. On the 3rd attempt I blew a gasket and demanded to speak to a manger. The address was changed. 9 (!!!) month later my credit card didn’t work at the local gas station after entering my ZIP code at the pump. Back on the phone with Shittybank, turns out they’d changed my address back to the old address. WTF?
I have an IRA and a 403b with Fidelity. Hey I moved, please change my address. They managed to update my IRA, the 403b account still kept the old address. I have a home equity and a checking account with Wachovia (Walk-all-over-you). Hey, please change my address. OK, no problemo! Turns out those numb skulls only changed the address on my checking account but not the home equity.
Now given all these screw ups you’d think I was the first customer ever that required such a complex task like an address change. Turns out that millions of Americans move every year and require an address change.
Now what is the point to my rambling? If those idiots can’t even perform a very simple task like an address change how in the world can they handle anything more complex? The only reason Shittybank and Wachovia are still in business is due to tax payer largesse. Can’t handle an address change but have no problems wasting billions of tax payer’s money.
I’ve had the same problem recently!!! How hard is it to change addresses over multiple accounts people!?
Blame this on understaffed and offshored IT departments. Sometimes its a miracle anything works at all, as all projects are rushed and hence are kuldged and not tested.
“kuldged”
oops — I meant kludged
From dictionry.com:
kludge /kludʒ/ Show Spelled[klooj] Show IPA
–noun Computer Slang .
a software or hardware configuration that, while inelegant, inefficient, clumsy, or patched together, succeeds in solving a specific problem or performing a particular task.
kludge or kluge (klōōj)
n. Slang
A system, especially a computer system, that is constituted of poorly matched elements or of elements originally intended for other applications.
A clumsy or inelegant solution to a problem.
You are 100% correct, In Colorado.
These numbskulls have such gigantic databases with multiple people with write access that I swear jobs get run that update information without full information of the consequences. I still have an account with First USA/Chase where they insist on reverting back to my 1998 email address and phone number no matter how many times I call and change it.
What do you expect from a Government-run enterprise?
It sounds like you’re calling them up on the phone. Last time I moved I just logged into their website and made a simple update to my profile. No problems.
I’m moving again at the end of May. I hope things haven’t changed.
That reminds me of 32 years ago when we moved crosscountry and I bought a service with my Shell credit card for $15 that would change my address for me. A year later my Shell credit card was cancelled for non-payment of $15. Yep, they forgot to change my address in their own system. It was a good lesson for me. I learned not to pay for unnecessary services. I learned to keep track of my monthly bills so I wouldn’t forget to pay one just because it wasn’t mailed to me. I learned how to reverse a ding on my credit. I learned that I didn’t need so many credit cards (I had 6 at the time.) And most importantly, I learned that you can’t trust financial institutions. Not bad for fifteen bucks!
New HUD form confuses borrowers, lenders
Key consumer protection document is supposed to spell out closing costs
For anyone buying a home this spring, beware: There could be some kinks with the paperwork.
In January, the Department of Housing and Urban Development rolled out sweeping changes to the Good Faith Estimate, a key consumer protection document. The agency has given the real estate industry four months to change over to the new form, and the questions and complaints are widespread.
“Borrowers are looking at this form and saying, ‘This doesn’t make any sense for us, why can’t we have something that’s more simple?’” said Pava Leyrer, president of Heritage National Mortgage in Grandville, Mich.
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/36466420/ns/business-real_estate/
HUD is the deepest cesspit of DC.
http://dealbook.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/04/14/angry-borrowers-mob-jpmorgans-mortgage-chief/?partner=yahoofinance
LOL. This is the video I want to see: FBs Gone Wild (on JP Morgan’s mortgage chief).
Wow!
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/finance/edmundconway/100004906/greek-lesson-we-are-all-in-the-same-boat/
What the cheerleading MSM isn’t telling the sheeple - Greece is not alone. When this debt bubble implodes it’s going to be horrible to behold.
Key point:
“Over the past 50 years we have committed ourselves to massive welfare states which our economies are simply not generating enough cash to finance. “
Well then - fire up the printing presses!!!
and fire up those helicopters…
Surprise, surprise! The Repubs are against regulation of Wall Street. Will The Teaparty also find a patriotic way to oppose it? I bet Sarah! knows a way.
I agree that Dodd’s bill ain’t the greatest, but I don’t see any alternative being offered by McConnell. I’d be impressed if he had a tougher, alternative plan, but apparently he just wants a return to the status quo ante- only this time we swear we’ll never bail any one out again.
—–
G.O.P. Takes Aim at Plans to Curb Finance Industry
By DAVID M. HERSZENHORN and SEWELL CHAN
Published: April 13, 2010
NYTimes
WASHINGTON
The Senate Republican leader, Mitch McConnell of Kentucky, criticized the Democrats’ plans to regulate Wall Street as arrogant and partisan, echoing the recent health care fight in which he accused Democrats of carrying out a government takeover.
“We cannot allow endless taxpayer-funded bailouts,” Mr. McConnell said in a floor speech. “That’s why we must not pass the financial reform bill that’s about to hit the floor. The fact is this bill wouldn’t solve the problems that led to the financial crisis. It would make them worse.”
Mr. McConnell’s comments offered a first glimpse at a Republican strategy carefully calibrated for a highly competitive midterm election year. In many ways it is a political high-wire act, as the Republicans seek to oppose the Democrats’ bill while not appearing to side with the banks at a time when popular anger at Wall Street is high.
At a news conference, Mr. McConnell acknowledged his own support for the $700 billion bailout in 2008 when the Bush administration warned of an imminent crisis. “That is not to say that we think it ever ought to be done again,” he said.
IMO Repub’s bill should be an one liner “No bailouts for WallStreet, Banks and companies, period. Never Ever. Not in any case!”
Pubies may not have a solution but his characterization of Dodd bill is spot on. Dodd’s bill does nothing but socializes the loss and practically makes Bailout a US policy.
If you believe that you have to have another line in it “No one can get to a size where they are too big to fail and pose systemic risk to our way of life.”
In a good ole bipartisan sense, I’m for voting out any rep that approved the TARP bill.
Did that in 08. Voted for Bob Barr.
Barr hasn’t been in Congress since 2003, so he didn’t vote on TARP one way or the other.
But Obama and McCain did.
BTW, Arizona, YOU ROCK! Why? For passing one of the toughest anti-illegal immigration laws to date. Having just had an illegal immigrant strawberry picker in this area arrested for pimping mildly retarded underage girls at migrant labor camps, I hope Florida follows suit soon. A pox on the strawberry farmers who aid and abet these perverts.
Go Hayworth!
+ 1,000,000
What palmetto said! Kudos to Ariz. for common sense.
I’d pigpile on with the pox comment but I truly think most of the 9% unemployed around here consider that work below them. I can’t say that after a year unemployed I’m really happy about continually extending these benefits forever. Some of these jobs aren’t coming back. Time for plan B to get their own food on their tables.
Absolutely! +++
I can imagine the howls from the bleeding hearts… They will be “racial profiling”.
You want to see the bleeding hearts in action? Google
Sheriff Joe Arpaio
“Sheriff Joe Arpaio”
I’ve read about him, seems like he takes a common sense approach to his part of the incarceration deal. Jail should not be a comfortable place to be.
We had a police chief here in central S.C. once that would not let a bulletin on a robber or thief include skin color. So when a bank was robbed the bulletin would read.
Local branch of regions bank was robbed at gun point, the suspect is described as a male approximately 6ft. tall weighing around 175lbs. with dark hair. He was wearing blue jeans a dark jacket and cap. Anyone with any info. please notify the police dept.
Our local paper leaves out the description a lot of times. It’s politically incorrect to say black when describing a crime or something.
Newark CA Man tried to abduct 15 YO girl at 6:30 AM 4/13/10. Ch 7 TV news didn’t mention ethnicity. The guy was Black found out from radio. Go figure
rentor,
That’s surprising. If you gave me the crime “Abducting teenage girls” I would automatically assume ‘white male’.
I would say that criminals come in all shapes, sizes, genders and colors. But it would be helpful to have a comprehensive description of a suspect. If he’s white, say he’s a white male. It doesn’t help to say he’s wearing jeans, he can change his attire after all.
http://cbs5.com/local/newark.girl.attacked.2.1629918.html
You would expect picture to be posted all over the place but it seems like low key operation.
My favorite passage from the Newark story:
Police said the girl’s screams caught the attention of a passing bicyclist. The bicyclist alerted a motorist, who followed the attacker down Parkshore Drive until the suspect turned around and fired three shots from a handgun toward the driver, police said.
+1 This is Teaparty activism I can agree with.
I guess all those marches and protests aren’t working. I still won’t forget some of the first marches when the immigrants piled into the street waving the Mexican flag. This did not go unnoticed by the citizens. The next march was in DC, and I ran into many of the marchers on the Metro. They were adorned with every possible scrap and red-white-and-blue textile that they could import from China. But it was too late; you can’t unring a bell.
Here in Arizona, when those May 1st marches were accompanied by school walkouts and shopping boycotts, a lot of people got really upset.
I seem to recall one school district deciding, “Oh, well. They’re walking out. No sense in giving them an unexcused absence or anything like that.” Which went over like a rock. That district hasn’t been able to pass a budget override since.
As for the shopping boycotts, fat lotta good that did. One of my good friends saved up her shopping, just so she could really ring the ole cash registers on Mayday.
Here in Arizona, there’s a lot of support for these laws. And it’s not coming from the troglodyte wing of the Republican Party.
A lot of the supporters are liberals of the flaming variety. Many of them are environmentalists who are tired of seeing the borderlands trashed by endless waves of border crossers. You should see the mounds of litter on our public lands and private ranches. It’s really disgusting — to the point of being a health hazard.
There is also a good bit of support among the Hispanic community. Many of them are proud of having entered this country legally, or their parents came in that way. And they’re not very happy about being lumped in with the illegal immigrants.
So, I guess I am way out here cause I support some kind of amnesty bill eh?
You know, I can understand the hostility. I just think it is misplaced anger about jobs.
IMHO we should be focusing on tax sturcture to increase jobs and foster innovation. Also doing things to make sure the 99 week unemployment doesn’t become long term welfare.
Then we have oil consumption issues to handle.
Financial reform. That’s a biggy.
National debt and the social security situation.
National infasturcture.
Throwing out my taco guy? You know it’s not really up there on my list of priorities.
NO just buy a house with 1/3 down and we will give you a green card….Fair is Fair!
——————————————–
So, I guess I am way out here cause I support some kind of amnesty bill eh?
Why would that be bad?
Not bad ….just make a real commitment (CASH) to being an American and I could look the other way if you came here Illegally
PS…don’t pay your mortgage and you will get deported back to your home country…..
So this law applies to all colors of illegal immigrants right? This is just a curious question.
No one really wants to get rid of illegals. If they did they would raid the companies that uses them and our food costs would sky rocket.
Lip service.
This whole financial mess reminds me of John Candy in Stripes
- I’m gonna fold.
- Okay.
Well, I’m still in.
Cruise, how about you?
Maybe I should fold.
Well, let me see.
Let me see first.
No, not with a hand like that.
Come on.
Dare me. Go on, bluff me.
Come on.
How much should I bet?
If it were me, I’d bet everything.
But that’s me. I’m
an aggressive gambler. Mr. Vegas.
Come on. Go for it. Go for it.
Yes, yes, there we go. I’m in.
- What do you got?
- Well, I got a full house.
Three threes and two sixes, that’s
a full house. What have you got?
- Two fours, I got an ace.
- You got an ace, an eight and a seven.
Well, you lose. If you would’ve had
four fours, you would’ve won.
- You’re getting good.
- Starting to get the hang of it.
Isn’t this fun? You’re pretty good
for a first time, really.
I’m pretty ticked that ReMax (who I loathe) still has not refunded my deposit money - 3 weeks after the agreement release was signed. AND…they didn’t even cash the deposit check until after the deal was over. AND…the seller decided not to move and the house has been off the market. ReMax is the WORST. For many reasons, this being yet another one.
eastcoaster
You should notify (call or write) the Dept Of Real Estate in your state. The Broker Franchise Owner’s license # should be in the “Look Up License” section of the DRE, or on your paperwork. Nail everyone at the buyer’s Remax office that was “in” on the transaction. There are laws about deposit money. Sorry to hear of your troubles.
I heard that BofA is giving Remax their short sales or foreclosure deals in bulk. Can’t recall all the details.
Agree with Awaiting Wipeout there. Get them raked over the coals by the state association. Also, look up when it’s been long enough to sue. A letter from a lawyer will shake the money free so fast you’ll think you’re a stripper and P-Diddy is makin’ it rain.
There are several things here that sounds very odd eastcoaster…The contract should stipulate clearly the place for the deposit and the time line for the deposit..Mishandling of deposits (trust funds) is a big time no-no at least here in California…Minimum would be a suspension of the license possibly revoked…Sounds like this broker is playing with fire..Turn to the department of real estate in your state…
Keep us posted on what happens, okay?
Out of curiosity, did you ask for interest on your earnest money? Its in the standard RE contract here, but the agents always seem to cross it out as quickly as they can. Even careful buyers assume they’re going to close fairly soon anyway or rates are so low its not worth it, and let it slide.
The way things are in the RE biz, I would be worried that they are taking money out of the trust funds. I would be on the horn to what-ever agency regulates them in your state.
We had an RE escrow agent in Colville WA that fell for the Nigerian Letter using trust fund money. Lost about $400K. Jail time for her, lost money for the clients.
Home sales in S.C. take off. March increases reported around the state.
Business Apr. 14, 2010
Home sales are heating up throughout the state as buyers look to cash in on a federal tax credit of up to $8,000 that is ending in 17 days.
Real estate groups in Charleston, Greenville and Myrtle Beach reported large upticks in March sales this week. Condo sales in the Myrtle Beach area, which was hard hit by the downturn, spiked 72 percent. And home sales in Charleston rose 22 percent.
In Columbia, however, sales slid again, according to preliminary data obtained by The State.
Home sales houses housing generic
Home sales were up in March in several areas of South Carolina, but down in the Columbia area.
Home showings are rising, said Columbia real estate agent Jay Graham, as buyers hoping to cash in on the tax credit scramble to get a home under contract by month’s end. They have two additional months to actually close.
Neither state nor nationwide numbers have been released, but the National Association of Realtors is expecting a surge in existing home sales from now through June.
Real estate experts say the coming months, when the tax credits expire, may be the true test of whether the housing market has recovered.
But people in Columbia, where the unemployment rate has reached double digits, as in the rest of the state, have been reluctant to buy so far this year - whether they still have a job or not.
“A lot of the people that have jobs are scared to buy because they’re just not feeling warm and fuzzy,” Graham said.
To get 8,000 they will pay Asking price.
I thought mortgage applications have been down since the beginning of April. I doubt most of these tax credit buyers are paying cash.
Ahh.. wmbz has the scoop a couple threads down.
On the personal side, people looking at our house (which is for sale again) have said that the homes “aren’t lasting” on the listings and they seem to be in a hurry (to catch a falling knife?). Don’t if its really true, it seems like the inventory took a dive and maybe the $8k in government money is helping.
Think of the monster bonuses these guys are going to get. The housing bubble in the Hamptons is going to party like its 2006!
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/JPMorgan-Chase-earns-33B-in-apf-557549089.html?x=0&sec=topStories&pos=main&asset=ad20e103960ec43db41838dbc7ae4656&ccode=1
“Inventment banking, especially bond trading, generated the bulk of JPMorgan’s profits.”
It is truly amazing how JPMorgan could have performed this incredible feat when given the opportunity to borrow from the government at zero-percent and then turn right around loan this same money to the same government at three-percent.
Inventment banking = investment banking.
(Alhough I sort of like inventment banking.)
Heck, I’m smart enough to make money doing that, and my MBA is from EWU. I just gotta figure out how to get $100 million at zero interest. Maybe I’m not smart enough after all.
A comment on Velocity of Money and other stuff.
Link: http://research.stlouisfed.org/publications/mt/page12.pdf
This is on Gary North’s page. I don’t quite know what to think about North, but I do believe the charts since they are linked to the St. Louis Fed.
I’ve been looking at the velocity of money this morning. There are two that I found: Nominal GDP/MZM, Nominal GDP/M2. These are telling a pretty clear story on what happened over the past 20 years.
The GDP/M2 = Velocity of Money is the total GDP divided by the total supply of money - savings, M1, etc.
The GDP/MZM = Velocity of Money is the total GDP divided by the amount of money that is immediately available for spending. So, a debit account would be a part of MZM and Housing Equity would not (ROTFLMA) or at least should not. Also, a savings deposit is part of MZM but not M1.
In any case, the VOMs showed a peak in both measures in the mid 90’s with MZM VOM at higher than 2.5 and M1 VOM at around 2.1 or so. These then declined more or less through the 00’s. There where flat spots during the housing boom, but otherwise VOMs declined with MZM declining at a higher rate than M1 VOM.
They appear to be more or less correlated over this time period from 92. Previous to that they were not as correlated. Interesting.
Now, during the 2001 recession the MZM VOM which was higher than M2 VOM crossed and now the difference is pronounced. Both VOMs are at levels that have not been seen on over 20 years with the MZM significantly lower. As a matter of fact, MZM VOM was at 2.5 or near it during the early 90’s until 1997 when it started a long march downward.
So, this leads to two conclusions and a question. First conclusion: MZM includes saving accounts while M1 does not. Therefore the ratio of savings to GDP has not kept up with the growth of GDP over the preceding 13 years or so. This is in the face of the Fed flooding the economy with money. Nice.
Second conclusion: MZM VOM is increasing at a higher rate than M1 VOM meaning that people are trying to save more or pay down debt. No, the Fed and USG does not like this. They blow out money like it was from a fire hose.
Question: Why the heck would anyone want to loan money at today’s interest rates? The only way we will get more money lent is to have higher interest rates to offset the risk involved. This lending and VOM was peaked during the mid 90s but has been declining ever since. So, you get everyone chasing after yield to offset the low returns and risk is ignored.
Low lending interest rates and high risk do not make for a robust economy. We will not make a good recovery until savers are given a reason to save and lenders are lending at a reasonable risk/return rate.
I guess I’m just not that smart. Sorry about that.
Roidy
M of a higher order include the previous forms of money. So, M1 would include the savings of M0.
“M of a higher order include the previous forms of money. So, M1 would include the savings of M0.”
Cap’n
Could you please elaborate on this? The implications and definitions, projections and downsides?
Tx,
Roidy
Roidy,
Great post! I’m feebly attempting to grasp the situation.
So, this leads to two conclusions and a question. First conclusion: MZM includes saving accounts while M1 does not. Therefore the ratio of savings to GDP has not kept up with the growth of GDP over the preceding 13 years or so. This is in the face of the Fed flooding the economy with money. Nice.
I think this is kind of a natural thing from flooding the economy with liquidity fed style. When the fed creates money it does so by creating debt. So debt acts like inflation for a while as it is being spent. Now, you start paying off debt and you are making deflation as the money is going back into the bank, unless it is getting loaned out again.
I think the Fed guys are probably a bit surprised at people ability to cut back. And we haven’t seen the half of it. Lots of businesses could go away.
Oh, pretty much easy things we could do to save with out any form of sacrifice…
>Oil change/lube places… not really needed.
>New car every five years? Maybe not. People could get them to last for 10-15 years easy. I’ve got a 18yr old SUV. Still in great shape but this is socal, no salt on the roads.
>Big house not required.
>SUV can sit in the driveway and everyone squeeze into the small car for long trips.
>Camping makes an amazing low cost vacation. So does hiking. Go to the national forest and you don’t have to kennel the pooch either.
>eat in vs eat out… healthier and 1/3 the cost or less
>hand me down clothes w/ the occasional patch job
>less stupid toys for our kids
>Birthday parties… we had a nice one BUT cooked the food ourselves and fasioned our own carnival… less expensive than chuckie cheese party
>the ladies are starting to manicure each other rather than go to a shop
Here in Tucson, there’s a weekly walk/run around the Downtown area. Much is made (by the sponsors) about getting out and supporting local businesses, especially the restaurants.
Well, I beg to differ. I’m of the mind that there are way too many restaurants in Downtown and other parts of Tucson.
Besides, if I want mediocre food and indifferent service, I can stay home and provide that for myself.
This may be a catalyst to an extension…
Home Loan Demand Slumps to Lowest in 3 Months
14 Apr 2010 By: Reuters
U.S. mortgage applications fell for a second straight week, with a slump in demand for government loans driving activity to its lowest level in three months, data from an industry group showed on Wednesday.
Demand for home loan refinancing and purchase loans, a tentative early indicator of home sales, both slid, indicative of a housing market that remains highly vulnerable to setbacks just weeks away from the expiration of federal home buyer tax credits.
The Mortgage Bankers Association said its seasonally adjusted index of mortgage applications, which includes both purchase and refinance loans, for the week ended April 9, decreased 9.6 percent, reaching its lowest level since the week ended Jan. 1.
The four-week moving average of mortgage applications, which smoothes the volatile weekly figures, was down 6.2 percent.
“Applications for government mortgages dropped substantially last week, following the implementation of an increase in FHA mortgage insurance premiums,” Mike Fratantoni, the MBA’s vice president of research and economics.
This may be a catalyst to an extension…
Of the Fed’s MBS purchases? That’s what it would take, being that this is of course driven by interest rates.
Oddly though - mortgage interest rates are down quite a bit the last few days. Since the time the Fed stopped MBS purchases - the yield spread between treasuries and mortgage rates hasn’t gone up, oddly - but down.
Being that there’s obvious cause and effect (MBS purchases making the spread dive to record lows), one would think that the halting of the MBS purchases would cause the spread to go back up. So far this hasn’t started.
3/20 - 30-yr-treas: 4.57%, 30-year-mort: 5.01% (0.44% spread)
Now - 30-yr-treas: 4.71%, 30-year-mort: 5.16% (0.35% spread)
So actually the spread has decreased the last few weeks - counter to what would be expected. The only reason mortgages are up at all is because treasuries are up quite a bit.
Hi there. I haven’t posted here in a while but while at the doctors office yesterday, I couldn’t help but notice than many national magazines are proclaiming that “America is Back”, mainly because the stock market has rallied so much.
Could we be near the top of this rally?
Or, is all this talk (and I’m one of the talkers) of impending financial doom in the U.S. overblown?
Or is it that Wall St. has successfully decoupled itself from Main St. so it can rally indefinitely while Main St. burns to the ground?
Back in the late 1980’s the Japanese stock market got to the point where many issues were trading at a P/E in the THOUSANDS.
The Nikkei index itself got to over 40,000 and it seemed infinity was possible. Now, almost 25 years later, the Nikkei is at 11,000, or, about 70% lower.
This is how I see the U.S. stock market resolving itself - rocketing skyward on quantitative easing (trillions of Spanky Bernanky FunnyMunny dollars) until some predetermined euphoria level is reached, (maybe 15,000 or so).
Then, the Federal Reserve and Megabank Corp will short every rally back down to Dow 3000 circa 2015.
Back in the late 1980’s the Japanese stock market got to the point where many issues were trading at a P/E in the THOUSANDS.
FWIW - you really can’t pay attention to P/E for the majority of companies - only the really mature ones, and only over the long term. Many IPO’s have a negative P/E even (essentially “more than infinite” P/E, since E is less than zero).
P/E for the market as a whole is more valid. I’m sure it was indeed high for Japan back then, as it was for the U.S. market in the late 90’s (above 40).
You also can’t look at “current” earnings, since they fluctuate so much - e.g. going from 83 in 2007 down to 7 in 2009. For a valid P/E you have to look at long-term earnings, spanning business cycles.
There’s lots of talk among the Permabears (like me) that the banksters are trading stock among themselves at ever higher prices attempting to lure J6P into the market. There is something like $300 Billion of money parked in MM accounts and maturing CD’s. Then when enough of the J6P’s have put their money out there, the Banksters short the bejesus out of the market and suck out a huge chunk of J6P’s retirement money. As of now, J6P has not taken the bait to any large degree, but it gets tougher each day as the market continues its unidirectional movement. Up 1% today.
I’d say you’ve nailed it, Spokaneman.
Oldest game in the book.
Remember when the dot com companies were doing the same thing? Or the RE speculators at the height of the boom? Junk bonds in the 1980s?
Ah, the rumors of side money abound. For any of the transactions to take place, you have to have a buyer and a seller. So, there isn’t any sideline cash guys. That is just a rumor to lead in the less smart of the permabear crowd.
Saying this, I’m all in because as totally f*ucked as the USA is, Europe and Japan are double plus fu*ked. Figure Soros and his buddies are trying to sell off Euro’s and get what ever they can before that currency expires.
Not to mention Japan is on life support.
And when the SHTF I don’t think an investment in China is going to be worth anything either. First guys up against the wall will be the infiltraiting capitalist scum from the west.
Good luck guys. My guess is probably about as good as anybody elses. Also seems like a lot of the inflation hedge bets are in the stock market. Not many other places to go as inflation would be a crusher in the bond market.
Top? Hell no, this isn’t the top! Don’t you watch TV?
I mainly watch sports on TV. What specifically on TV are you referring to?
Specifically you could narrow it down to ANY news report on ANY event on ANY channel. A rip-roaring recovery is upon us. Check with Jim Cramer if you have any doubt.
Ah. I didn’t get the sarcasm of your first post. : )
My keyboard has a “sarcasm-lock” button. Its stuck.
That was funny pressboardbox.
What rally? The DJIA first closed above 10K on 3/30/1999. Applying the Fed’s inflation formula thingy (which understates real inflation BTW, but let’s just use it anyway), the Dow should be a little north of 13,000 by just to keep up with inflation since 1999. The 11K figure that is breathlessly reported & cited as evidence of some kind of resurgence is actually below its 1999 level on an inflation adjusted basis.
In other words, the market has gone down over the past 11 years in real terms. Wake me up when there’s a real rally.
I appreciate your point, but I’m not sure it makes sense to compare to the bubble prices of 1999 to get any sense of where we ought to be now.
Doctor Shortage? 28 States May Expand Role of Nurses
April 14, 2010 ~ CNN
A nurse may soon be your doctor. With a looming shortage of primary care doctors, 28 states are considering expanding the authority of nurse practitioners. These nurses with advanced degrees want the right to practice without a doctor’s watchful eye and to prescribe narcotics. And if they hold a doctorate, they want to be called “Doctor.”
For years, nurse practitioners have been playing a bigger role in the nation’s health care, especially in regions with few doctors. With 32 million more Americans gaining health insurance
within a few years, the health care overhaul is putting more money into nurse-managed clinics.
Those newly insured patients will be looking for doctors and may find nurses instead.
No problem. Just start importing doctors from abroad like they do in the UK.
Just hope this doesn’t happen to your child when he sees one of those non-English speaking doctors.
http://tinyurl.com/y78c5lp
What the heck is “trapped wind”? Gas?
hese nurses with advanced degrees want the right to practice without a doctor’s watchful eye and to prescribe narcotics.
I’m guessing Washington state already allows this. My “doctor” is an ARNP. She can handle most of everything I need - regular checkups, testing, prescriptions, etc.
Obviously, if I had something serious going on I’d insist on seeing a doctor (or go straight to a specialist), but for most primary care, I’m not sure I see why a NP isn’t good enough?
I have no problem with this.
Matter of fact, you’ve already read my raves about the overpriced doctors and dentists who seem to treat those of us who self-pay like vermin. I find it hard to believe that being freed from having to fight with insurance companies is behind their contempt. I think it has more to do with our tendency to question the price.
I’m perfectly happy with the physician assistant and the dental clinic I now patronize. And, last time I needed an immunization updated, I went to the public health department. Much cheaper than a doctor’s office.
I find it hard to believe that being freed from having to fight with insurance companies is behind their contempt. I think it has more to do with our tendency to question the price.
You mean individuals, spending their own money, are likely to do a better job of cost control than bloated “third party payer” bureaucracies, either corporate or governmental? Say it ain’t so!
No legislation gets written without pushing from a special interest group, in this case the nurses union. Do you honestly think that state legislators give a hoot about an impending doctor shortage, or an impending anything?
Elizabeth Warren speaks-
Time to ‘Sober Up’ on Foreclosures: TARP Official
http://www.cnbc.com/id/36497737
Within the text:
“Some of you should stay in your homes…and some of you don’t belong in those homes and you’ve got to be moved out,” Warren said. “And frankly, those houses need to get back onto the market and get into the hands of people who can afford them.”
“In other words, acknowledge the problem, deal with it, write off the losses and start rebuilding an economy on solid ground.”
Great, Liz. Now tell us who the “some” are.
That should be a job for Mr. Free Market.
With 1 in 5 Americans out of work, Obama administration issues over a million green cards. ~ Examiner
The Department of Homeland Security has just reported that during 2009, they issued 1,130,818 new Green Cards to foreign nationals, allowing them to work legally in this country. That number represents the fourth highest number of cards issued in one year.
The top four recipient nations are as follows:
-Mexico…164,920
-China…receiving 64,238
-Philippines…60,029
-India…57,304
In Feb. 2009, the financial institution Merrill Lynch announced that the nation’s actual unemployment rate had reached 13.9 percent. A year later, that number had risen to 17.3 percent. This figure represents Americans who have been laid off from full-time positions and are now working part-time, as well as those who have simply stopped looking for work, and workers whose unemployment benefits have run out.
The official unemployment figure given monthly by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics is now listed around 10 percent, but represents only those Americans currently receiving unemployment checks, and is not truly indicative of the dire employment situation now facing the U.S.
And consider that many of those green card recipients are college grads. I really feel sorry for the current batch of kids, even those with “tough” degrees. Most of them are going to be underemployed for a long time, and even Masters degrees won’t help them.
You can buy a degree in India come here through outsourcing firm. Poor fool who got loans to get degree here will be paying off loans for years.
Green cards can take up to 18 years to get from initial application to receipt of actual card.
I see the argument that green cards should be decreased during times of high unemployment. But it’s simply not feasible do that when the process is so long. Or are you suggesting that after waiting for 18 years, someone is told, sorry you’ll have to wait another 3 years because unemployment is at 9%?
Ki-
Americans (real family links, not anchors or current imports, should always have priority. This is our country! I could care less about green card candidates. We need tough love on green cards, period. Our families have served, shed blood, or gave their life, for this once great country. Americans should always come first in the U.S. Period.
Plenty of immigrants have shed blood for this country as well.
Absolutely, Ki.
I acknowledge your point.
18 years is extreme outlier, so not really valid for this discussion. Most take 4-6 (minimum is 3 or 5, depending on whether or not married to a U.S. citizen). Nevertheless your point is valid - the current high rate of green cards is almost certainly due to the booming economy in the mid-2000’s timeframe. There will almost certainly be a big dropoff in the coming 2-3 years.
The important thing with regards to foreign people taking U.S. jobs is visas - not green cards.
China, India and Phillipines sponsor extended families Adult brother sisters etc and clog up system for those countries.
Green cards are not issued based on economic conditions. The vast majority of gcs are family based. The US is one of the few countries that ignores economic conditions when it comes to immigration policy.
I say “immigration” policy which as you point out is different than visa policy. To me an immigrant is someone who moves here to live here for good as opposed to someone on a visa who comes here for a few years, works, saves money and then goes back home. Visa policy does use economic conditions as a factor in setting policy. H1B was capped at 65,000 after the .com collapse, it was at 195K in the late 90s.
Of course many visa holders end up being immigrants, but again, when they apply to go from H1B to GC for example, whether unemployment is 5% or 25% makes no difference in the eyes of the USCIS.
With 1 in 5 Americans out of work, Obama administration issues over a million green cards. ~ Examiner
Not taking sides on the immigration debate either way– but there is a basic fallacy at work here. The assumption seems to be that immigrants will take away jobs from current citizens, when actually many of them may wind up CREATING jobs.
What do Google, Yahoo, eBay, Hotmail and Intel all have in common?
All of them were either started by or co-founded by immigrants who at one point received green cards.
Remember Moore’s Law? I believe it was Moore (one of two Americans) that started Intel, not a grn card person. My husband worked for Intel.
“The assumption seems to be that immigrants will take away jobs from current citizens, when actually many of them may wind up CREATING jobs.”
Actually, most of them will neither create jobs nor take jobs away, but rather end up on welfare. Very often they will both use welfare AND take jobs.
The level of fraud among new immigrants is amazing. I work at a top bank, supposedly among the best and the brightest… Even here, I’ve seen it all.
H1B consultants who lied on their resumes and bought their degrees.
A six figure earning IT professional from India who is not officially married to her equally well paid IT professional husband in order to file as head of household, and who somehow managed to get their kids on the city sponsored medical welfare program instead of paying for family insurance.
An banking analyst from China whose husband and father cheat on taxes (I got great advice from her on how to creatively operate a cash based business), whose mom and sis are on disability welfare, and whose extended family of 30 immigrated from China within the last 10 years, and most are working in the family business for cash.
Since I’m a fairly recent immigrant myself, these people are pretty open with me. The things they share… It’s a nightmare.
Sorry, but I have to chime in - some Green Card holders are actually helping to create jobs for Americans.
Some Green Card holders have helped start a company and the research and sheer bloody hard work they have put in has actually kept said company afloat.
Indeed they do! And I’ve done work for more than a few of them. Great men and women to deal with. We could learn a thing or two about stick-to-it-iveness from them.
wmbz
Great information on the green card treason. Much appreciated. Thanks.
More competition = better, right?
Bernanke’s voice sounds like he is taking female hormone pills more than usual. Would he be more credible as a girl?
That comment was over the sexist line, sorry.
What’s wrong with being sexy?
Doh - you beat me to it.
Bearded woman in a circus may be…..
It’s hard to mainain a compouse when lying.
He has a young voice with an older appearance. It’s kind of odd.
Another Wall Street Rathole Exposed:
On Tuesday April 13, 2010, 2:46 am EDT
The NY Times
It was like a hidden passage on Wall Street, a secret channel that enabled billions of dollars to flow through Lehman Brothers.
In the years before its collapse, Lehman used a small company — its “alter ego,” in the words of a former Lehman trader — to shift investments off its books.
The firm, called Hudson Castle, played a crucial, behind-the-scenes role at Lehman, according to an internal Lehman document and interviews with former employees. The relationship raises new questions about the extent to which Lehman obscured its financial condition before it plunged into bankruptcy.
While Hudson Castle appeared to be an independent business, it was deeply entwined with Lehman. For years, its board was controlled by Lehman, which owned a quarter of the firm. It was also stocked with former Lehman employees.
None of this was disclosed by Lehman, however.
Entities like Hudson Castle are part of a vast financial system that operates in the shadows of Wall Street, largely beyond the reach of banking regulators. These entities enable banks to exchange investments for cash to finance their operations and, at times, make their finances look stronger than they are.
Critics say that such deals helped Lehman and other banks temporarily transfer their exposure to the risky investments tied to subprime mortgages and commercial real estate. Even now, a year and a half after Lehman’s collapse, major banks still undertake such transactions with businesses whose names, like Hudson Castle’s, are rarely mentioned outside of footnotes in financial statements, if at all.
The Securities and Exchange Commission is examining various creative borrowing tactics used by some 20 financial companies. A Congressional panel investigating the financial crisis also plans to examine such deals at a hearing in May to focus on Lehman and Bear Stearns, according to two people knowledgeable about the panel’s plans.
Most of these deals are legal. But certain Lehman transactions crossed the line, according to the account of the bank’s demise prepared by an examiner of the bank. Hudson Castle was not mentioned in that report, released last month, which concluded that some of Lehman’s bookkeeping was “materially misleading.” The report did not say that Hudson was involved in the misleading accounting.
At several points, Lehman did transactions greater than $1 billion with Hudson vehicles, but it is unclear how much money was involved since 2001.
I don’t care about any of the wall street tricks being revealed. The only thing I care about is how soon can they figure out a way to give us all great big HELOCs again. I am going to do it right this time and go with the Hummer,the vacations, jet-skis, flat-screens, the whole nine yards!
Make sure you do it in a non-recourse state.
….and you don’t have any other assets.
This is what Enron was busted for, complete with high-visibility perp walks. But it’s okay if you’re a bank?
Enron was not even large enough to rate a pimple on one of the butt cheeks of these Corruptasaurs Rex investment banks. What cowards our leaders/representatives are.
Hmm - sounds a little like these (QSPE’s). I wonder if those are still around. They were supposed to be banned, but not sure if it actually happened.
The end is nearing for an accounting trick destined to be remembered as a hallmark of the housing boom, because it allowed financial firms to conceal a vast expansion in their lending from regulators and investors.
Under this strategy, firms placed trillions of dollars in loans in the financial equivalent of self-storage facilities. They were not required to disclose the contents or maintain capital buffers against potential losses. By allowing firms to expand lending without increasing capital, the practice increased profits. But it left firms ill-prepared to absorb losses as defaults rose.
…
The tool became popular with the rise of securitization in the mid-1990s.
In a typical arrangement, a bank would place a large number of mortgage loans in a storage facility. Investors would pay into the facility for the right to collect future payments from borrowers, and the bank would collect the money.
Because regulators require banks to keep capital reserves in proportion to their outstanding loans and other commitments, every $100 in loans shipped off to the storage facility saved the bank $6 in capital.
Citigroup reported that its Q’s held more than $800 billion as of June.
Note that last number, relative to Lehman’s paltry $1 billion transactions.
Only “banned?” Easy work-around!
Do these effin’ idiots know anything besides bailing out failed institutions?
Senate Democrat proposes $23 billion bailout for schools
wwwwashingtonpostcom/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/04/14/AR2010041402043.html?hpid=topnews
“Blazing Saddles” was on again last night.
I’ve seen it a hundred times, and the “campfire scene” still cracks me up.
And Slim Pickens.
“What’ll that a$$hole think of next????”
Can’t believe my eyes. What’s wrong with sheeple still liking GW?
Isn’t there anyone better out there in Fox-news land?
publicpolicypollingblogspotcom/2010/04/obamabush-nearly-divided.html
Obama/Bush Nearly Divided
Americans are now pretty evenly divided about whether they would rather have Barack Obama or George W. Bush in the White House. 48% prefer Obama while 46% say they would rather have the old President back.
Bush had atrocious approval ratings for his final few years in office, particularly because he lost a lot of support from Republicans and conservative leaning independents. Those folks may not have liked him but they now say they would rather have him back than Obama. 87% of GOP voters now say they would prefer Bush, a number a good deal higher than Bush’s approval rating within his party toward the tail end of his Presidency. Democrats predictably go for Obama by an 86/10 margin, and independents lean toward him as well by a 49/37 spread.
These numbers suggest some peril for Democrats in making Bush a focus of their messaging this fall. A lot of folks who contributed to the former President’s low level of popularity now like Obama even less. Figuring out a way to make voters change their minds about the current President would be a much more effective strategy for Democrats than continuing to try to score points off the former one.
I’d rather have Obama, since having GWB back would be unconstitutional, would it not?
Neither one is fit to be president of a cub-scout troop.
They had to pick one.
Treasury seeks to protect federal benefits: report
April 14, 2010
(Reuters) - The Treasury department will release new rules on Wednesday that would prevent banks from seizing a borrower’s social security to recover unpaid debt, the Wall Street Journal said.
The proposed new rules, to be published in the Federal Register, will require banks to check if the borrower has received any direct deposits of federal benefits within the past 60 days, the Journal said.
In case the borrower had received a federal benefit then the new rule would require the banks to establish a protected amount equal to the sum of the benefits deposited, the paper said.
For example, if a person had two federal benefit deposits of $1000 each, then the banks must establish a protected amount of $2000, even if the person had spent the benefits, the Journal said.
Any amount above the protected amount would be handled according to the garnishment rules of each state, the newspaper said.
Garnishment is a debt collection practice that involves a bank seizing the assets of a borrower in case the debt remains unpaid.
The U.S. Treasury could not be immediately reached for comment by Reuters outside regular U.S. business hours.
Hey, this is actually bad for the banks. I wonder which lobbyist let this one get by. Bad lobbyist. No $400 steak dinner.
Oh yeah, I forgotten that they can take the food right of grandma’s mouth and kick her to the curb.
Condo Vultures: Icon Brickell condos discounted 26%
South Florida Business Journal
Condo units in Miami’s Icon Brickell – the largest new condominium project in South Florida – sold for an average discount of 26 percent in the first quarter, according to Condo Vultures.
In a review of county sales records, the Bal Harbour-based real estate consultancy found that sales picked up for the Related Group of Florida’s project, although prices declined. The project consists of three towers in downtown Miami.
Generating quick sales is crucial because the project has two mortgages totaling more than $600 million that came due in 2009. No mortgage extensions have been recorded, but the lenders have not taken legal action.
In January, lenders gave Related Group permission to cut prices in Icon Brickell.
After selling 125 units for a total of $76.9 million from late 2008 through 2009, Related Group sold 162 units for $75.5 million during the first quarter, according to Condo Vultures. First quarter sales averaged $404 a square foot, down from $543 a square foot before that period.
An additional 35 units closed from April 1 through April 13 for $15.4 million.
Prices in tower three have been discounted the most, averaging $316 a square foot, according to Condo Vultures. One unit went for $216 a square foot.
Sounds like they will take whatever someone is willing to pay.
Here is a chart and article with government stats showing the poorest 20% of Americans pay a higher percentage of their income in total taxes than most Americans.
Chart:
http://thefactofmyignorance.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/04/taxes-already-flat.gif
Article with more government charts and stats:
http://thefactofmyignorance.com/politics/some-historical-perspective-for-tea-partiers/
Many Tankxs Rio…Hwy50
“…It clearly shows that the median-income family of four’s average effective income tax rate is currently at its lowest level since at least 1955. And Obama’s budget will lower that substantially as described in this AP article.”
Now, …Now, they’re ANGRY!
(not even a muttering under their breath between 2000-2008)
“TruePatriot™ / TruePurity™” / “TrueAnger™” PeeParty tea toadlers
I have a BIL that’s a tea partier. I told him I wasn’t interested, since they’re focusing on the wrong thing - taxes, and not on spending, which is where the real problem is.
(This is before Palin got involved, after which now I *really* don’t like the Tea Party thing.)
FWIW though - I don’t see Tea Partiers as protesting so much against existing taxes (e.g. the stats in the link), but more against proposed taxes.
The article’s right in that taxes haven’t gone up much - however note that it only includes data thru 2004, thus not including the past few years when property taxes for instance have gone through the roof. Sorry - but there’s no friggin’ way that the middle range is only paying 14-17% their income in taxes, if you include all taxes. I call B.S. I need to see raw numbers.
I’ll do a run on my own tonight. I’ll bet anything I pay at least 20%, probably closer to 25%-30%. And that’s with very little sin tax (I don’t smoke, and don’t drink much).
P.S. “Historical” comparisons only going back to the 1950’s isn’t very meaningful - back then we had just been through the most expensive war in history - by far, and had to raise taxes hugely to pay off the debt. We are in no such expensive war now.
And no - Iraq and Afghanistan don’t compare - not even close. We’re talking 47% of GDP during WWII (and then again 15% during Korea, and then 10% in Nam) vs. 5.5% now.
For a real comparsion, go back to pre-WW1 days (before the big expenses of the New Deal and of WW1). Federal taxes, and spending, were 2% of GDP for decades. By comparison - currently spending is 25% of GDP.
Sorry - but there’s no friggin’ way that the middle range is only paying 14-17% their income in taxes, if you include all taxes.
It sounds low to me too however at this point my interest is in the percent paid in total taxes by the poor vs the rich.
I’m finding the poor pay as much or more than the rich. (In total taxes as a percent of their income)
There is no doubt that they pay more as a percentage of their income in state, local and sales taxes.
As I said, the middle class only paying 14-17% in taxes sounds low to me too but here’s a NYT guy reporting a similar number:
Yes, 47% of Households Owe No Taxes. Look Closer. New York Times 4/13/2010
(But) Congressional Budget Office data suggests that, at most, about 10 percent of all households pay no net federal taxes. The number 10 is obviously a lot smaller than 47.
“the picture starts to change when you look not just at income taxes but at all taxes. This average household would have paid 0.8 percent of its income in corporate taxes (through the stocks it owned), 0.9 percent in gas and other federal excise taxes, and 9.5 percent in payroll taxes. Add these up, and the family’s total federal tax rate was 14.2 percent.
If anything, the government numbers I’m using here exaggerate how much of the tax burden falls on the wealthy. These numbers fail to account for the income that is hidden from tax collectors — a practice, research shows, that is more common among affluent families. “Because higher-income people are understating their income,” Joel Slemrod, a tax scholar at the University of Michigan, says, “We’ve been overstating their average tax rates.”
State and local taxes, meanwhile, may actually be regressive. That is, middle-class and poor families may face higher tax rates than the wealthy. As Kim Rueben of the Tax Policy Center notes, state and local income taxes and property taxes are less progressive than federal taxes, while sales taxes end up being regressive. The typical family pays a lot of state and local taxes, too — almost half as much as in federal taxes. ”
http://www.nytimes.com/2010/04/14/business/economy/14leonhardt.html?partner=rss&emc=rss
As I said, the middle class only paying 14-17% in taxes sounds low to me too but here’s a NYT guy reporting a similar number:
“Add these up, and the family’s total federal tax rate was 14.2 percent.” From NYT article above
No, I re-read it and he’s talking 14.2% on FEDERAL taxes, not total taxes.
It says the numbers include social security taxes (employee’s share) which is very convenient, but utterly ridiculous.
Most “poor” and “middle class” pay 1/2 of FICA taxes as they work for someone else.
Many, if not most high end earners are self employed/ small business owners who not only pay 100% for themselves, but also pay the other 1/2 of their employees’ FICA.
Example:
Joe makes $50K. Pays 10% income tax, 6.2% SS tax. Total is 16.2%.
Bob owns a small business and employs Joe. Bob makes $100K. Pays 15% income tax and 6.2% SS tax (as would be counted by your numbers)for a total of 21.2% using your calculation or so it would seem.
In reality though Bob pays 12.4% SS tax for himself as employee and employer also pays the employer portion of 6.2% for Joe. Meaning Bob’s tax is 15% + 12.4% of 100K + 6.2% of $50K. Total tax is $30,500 or 30.5%.
Mmmm. Got to include sales tax and fees but my guess is your analysis is closer to correct.
Article by socialist media people that have an axe to grind and taxes to increase.
Article by socialist media people that have an axe to grind and taxes to increase.
If we have a socialist media, they ain’t doing a good job for their cause now are they?
Rich got richer, poor got poorer, crap health insurance, jobs outsourced, no safety nets, Wall Street bailed out, rich got bailed out, poor go to prison, rich never go to prison, richest Americans pay 16% federal tax, middle-class hammered, Poor pay more in taxes, inflation kills poor and middle more than rich, corporations allowed to be monopolies. All war all the time. Corporations are “people” too.
Yea man, the “socialist” media caused all of the above. We’re all commie’s now.
Bob, as a business owner, and depending on the state and type business, can set up his payroll in a variety of ways.
And it’s Bob’s BUSINESS that is paying the employee tax, not Bob himself.
California’s poor pay the highest tax rate 4/13/2010 OC Register
“Changes in state tax law have benefited corporations while costing individual taxpayers more, according to the report. And the net income of corporations has grown 411 percent from 2001 to 2008, while the adjusted gross income income of individuals has risen just 27.8 percent during the period.
The bottom fifth in family income pay 11.1 percent of their earnings in state and local taxes. The top 1 percent pay 7.8 percent.
personal income tax receipts will provide 53.2 percent of General Fund revenues in 2009-2010, up from 35.4 percent in 1980-81. Corporate tax receipts are expected to provide 10.7 percent of General Fund revenues in 2009-2010, down from 14.6 percent in 1980-81.”
“Over the past two decades, the cost of funding state services has shifted from corporate to personal income taxpayers.”
http://totalbuzz.freedomblogging.com/2010/04/13/californias-poor-pay-the-highest-tax-rate/33613/
The top 1 percent pay 7.8 percent.
Being that just the state income tax rate alone is 9.3%, for the top bracket (including for capital gains), this says to me that there are way too many deductions/loopholes.
Seems to me that way too much attention is paid to tax rates, and not enough to loopholes. As it is - tax rates would dictate that higher-income would pay more, since CA has a graduated income tax.
P.S. I also see this as one result of the housing bubble. Lower-income people tended to buy more house than they could afford relative to higher-income people (in terms of price = x times income), and as a result pay a higher percentage of their income in property taxes.
E.g. someone making $200k and buying an $800k house, paying a mill rate of 2% ($16k/year), would be paying 8% of their income in property taxes, whereas someone making $50k and buying a $500k house at the same mill rate would be paying $10k a year; 20% of their income.
It’d be interesting to see a study done of that - i.e. how much of a percentage of their income people pay in property taxes, for different income groups, and how these values changed during the bubble.
Stock Market Marches Steadily Higher.
Cramer is going to wet himself.
Dow industrials up 100 points; financials, tech fuel advance
Guess P Bear and Muggy took it outside?
Maybe they’re in “timeout”
“Guess P Bear and Muggy took it outside?”
Get Stucco = P Bear = Green Shoots.
Changing identities like a teenager. Cute.
Back to timeout, Muggy.
Had to have a ’study’ on something that is just plain common sense. Good thing we have experts…
Study: Physical activity can boost student performance
GET A MOVE ON
Physical activity can:
• Improve blood flow and oxygen to the brain, improving mental clarity.
• Positively affect the portion of the brain responsible for learning and memory.
• Improve connections between nerves in the brain, thus improving attention and information-processing skills.
• Build strong bones and muscles.
• Decrease the likelihood of developing obesity and risk factors for type 2 diabetes and heart disease.
• Reduce anxiety and depression.
USA TODAY
Going to PE class and recess can be a win-win situation for students.
Physical activity improves kids’ fitness and lowers their risk of obesity. And now a government review of research shows that kids who take breaks from their class work to be physically active during the school day are often better able to concentrate on their school work and may do better on standardized tests.
EXPERTS: Recess improves student behavior
In many schools, physical education classes and recess have been squeezed out because of increasing educational demands and tough financial times.
“Some short-sighted people thought that cutting back on time spent on physical education to spend more time drilling for tests would improve test scores,” says Howell Wechsler, director of the Division of Adolescent and School Health for the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.
“But in fact there are a lot of studies that show that more time for PE and other physical activity help improve academic performance.”
I was really awful at gym class. Too slow of a runner and too klutzy at just about anything else.
So, you’d think that I would have developed a lifelong aversion to exercise. I didn’t.
The thing that really saved me was my parents’ enjoyment of things like walking and bicycling. The sort of things that even slowpoke klutzes can do. My folks encouraged me to do as much walking and biking as I could, and I’m very grateful for that.
“I was really awful at gym class. Too slow of a runner and too klutzy at just about anything else.”
Me too. But it wasn’t exercise I hated. I simply didn’t enjoy field-related team sports, which is ALL we did in gym class. Once I was beyond high school, I was free to engage only in sports I enjoyed, and that made all the difference.
Same here. Cycling can be a sublime experience. It’s difficult to put a price on it, but for me I think being able to commute by bike is worth something in the neighborhood of $25k a year in salary. That’s between the hard savings of not owning a car and a guesstimate of the more intangible, but argubaly priceless, health benefits.
Physical activity worked into one’s daily routine is not stressed enough in this culture. Humans were not designed to set aside hours a day to “exercise”. For ages, exercise came from hunting and gathering (later farming) - all routine daily tasks.
Couldn’t agree more. I’m already looking forward to my 3.3 mile cycle to get to band practice tonight. Ending coming out of Noe Valley is not super fun, but I can eat (and drink) what I what.
I don’t do my 20 mi commute both ways every day, but it’s nice to have the option. Maybe a couple times a weeks. When the Golden Gate Bridge is part of your commute, it’s worth something…
MrBubble
I’ve heard Ritalin works, too.
Test
You get an A-plus! Welcome to the HBB.
You get an A-plus!
So far…
From behind the “Orange Curtain”…”The O.C.!”… It’s Bren developed!
BWAHAHHAHAHAHHAHAHHAHHAHAHAHHHHHHHHHHHHH!!! (fpss™)
April 6th, 2010, by Ian Hamilton the OC Register:
Pizza joint to close 3rd Irvine location:
“This is not a bad business. We’re managing it right. We’re doing it right. So what’s wrong?” said manager Jimmy Shahbazian.
They’re paying $12,000-$13,000 a month in rent to the Irvine Co. and that’s just too much for the volume of customers they’re getting, he said. The problem, according to Shahbazian, is that not enough homes were built nearby in the time frame they expected them to be built.
(Read the note that the owner left on their business door)
http://fastfood.freedomblogging.com/2010/04/06/pizza-joint-to-close-third-irvine-location/57747/
They need to invest and develop the technology to allow for the downloading of pizzas over the internet. While I probably could get thin crust over dial-up, I’ll need to get broadband for stuffed.
Calling all L.A. peeps:
What do 2/2 and 3/2 rentals go for in the Culver City area, or the areas to the north?
2300.00
“2300.00″
O.k., re-thinking FL, again. And again. And again.
Have you used the Rento-meter ? its pretty cool find it on the web
Good find!
Wow.
Craigslist. Culver is a dump and it is an expensive dump.
This would not surprise me, Americans are programed from birth to shop and spend. It a world wide, since we have a global economy.
Mortgage Defaults Drive Consumer Spending: Experts Weigh In
CNBC April 14, 2010
I opened up a big can of debate Monday, when I repeated some chatter around that consumer spending might be juiced by all those folks not paying their mortgages.
They have a little extra cash, so they’re spending it at the mall.
Some of you thought the premise had some validity, others, as is often the case, told me I was an idiot.
Well after the blog went up Erin Burnett put the question to Economist Robert Shiller, of the S&P/Case Shiller Home Price Index, during an interview on Street Signs.
He didn’t deny the possibility, and added:
“In some sense there might be a silver lining in that.”
Then I decided to ask Mark Zandi, of Moody’s Economy.com, who will often shoot down my more ridiculous theories.
I asked him if this was a crazy idea:
No, not crazy. With some 6 million homeowners not making mortgage payments (some loans are in trial mod programs and paying something but still in delinquency or default status) , this is probably freeing up roughly $8 billion in cash each month. Assuming this cash is spent (not too bad an assumption), it amounts to nearly one percent of consumer spending. The saving rate is also much lower as a result. The impact on spending growth is less significant as that is a function of the change in the number of homeowners not making payments.
I’m not sure I would say this is juicing up spending, but resulting in more spending than would be the case otherwise.
Many of these stressed homeowners (due to unemployment) are reducing their spending, just not as much as they would have if they were still making their mortgage payment.
But in the end, it’s speculation, isn’t it? And consumer spending isn’t really on fire, is it?
As Cramer said while pounding on the desk.
“I told you it would be a V shaped recovery, now buy,buy,buy”
DOW 12,000 here we come!
Yep, I’m looking for my exit point as we speak. I think we might just get back to 12k but I’ll take my winnings and leave the table. Oy.
Construction Groups Decry Obama’s New Union Friendly Policy for Federal Projects ~Fox News.com
Advocates for the recession-battered construction industry are lining up to challenge President Obama’s new policy backing the use of union labor for large-scale federal construction projects.
Advocates for the recession-battered construction industry are lining up to challenge President Obama’s new policy backing the use of union labor for large-scale federal construction projects.
The policy, which went into effect Tuesday, encourages federal agencies to have construction contractors
and subcontractors enter project labor agreements (PLAs) for all construction projects larger than $25 million. Those agreements require contractors to negotiate with union officials, recognize union wages and benefits and generally abide by collective-bargaining agreements.
Opponents of the policy are calling it a payoff to unions. They say it will unfairly steer federal construction contracts to unions even though the bulk of U.S. construction workers are not unionized.
“Anti-competitive project labor agreements are special interest kickback schemes that end open, fair and competitive bidding on public projects,” Jim Elmer, national chairman of the Associated Builders and Contractors, Inc., said in a written statement. “Government-mandated PLAs are a handout to a politically connected special interest group and come at the taxpayers’ expense.”
Link?
http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2010/04/14/construction-groups-decry-obamas-new-union-friendly-policy-federal-projects/?loomia_ow=t0:s0:a4:g4:r2:c0.000000:b0:z5
I’m not surprised. It’s gonna be tough to make a profit when you have to pay more than the $3hr you were paying to Pedro, the “undocumented” worker. (if you paid him at all)
/sarcasm
A rising real estate market lifts all other sectors of the economy. If the equity gains from the rising Chinese market travel over to California, perhaps Chinese investors can help lift the CA economy out of its slump?
Bloomberg
China’s March Property Prices Jump a Record 11.7% (Update3)
April 14, 2010, 12:06 AM EDT
More From Businessweek
By Chia-Peck Wong
April 14 (Bloomberg) — China’s property prices rose at a record pace in March, indicating government efforts to stem gains aren’t working and more drastic measures may be needed amid concern of a bubble in the nation’s housing market.
Residential and commercial real-estate prices in 70 cities climbed 11.7 percent from a year earlier, the National Bureau of Statistics said on its Web site. The data goes back to 2005.
…
Just notice something today…..my Foodtown Apple juice was made from concentrate from CHINA.
Huh? pick apples condense them ship frozen 5000 miles to LA then truck or rail to the east coast re-bottle…and its cheaper then getting it from American farmers in upstate NY?
And then consider the enviro impact. Multiply by many other examples. The mind boggles…
If you look at a lot of your packaged foods, you’ll find a lot of it was made in China.
Now you know why the farmers are not very happy. The middlemen are doing everything in their power to squeeze everybody.
So what to do?
Forgive principle on an underwater FB?
OR
Foreclose on underwater FB. Sell house at new, firesale price. Have neighbor who up until now has been paying mortgage on time now walk away or live rent free like UFB for 18 mos?
What to do, hmmm what to do? Gee, that’s a hard one to cipher.
Didn’t we, HBB, foresee this coming? Now, there is no fix for this that doesn’t make it worse. Either way, everyone is screwed.
Roidy
All the available evidence suggests a strong recovery is underway. It might be wise for fence sitters to consider getting off the fence before (1) the $8K credit expires; (2) interest rates go up (this is already underway); (3) jobs come back.
All three will only serve to further price renters out of the housing market.
Treasury Prices Fall On Optimistic Bernanke, Stronger Data
By Deborah Lynn Blumberg
Of DOW JONES NEWSWIRES
NEW YORK (Dow Jones)–Treasurys lost ground Wednesday after Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke offered up optimistic remarks on the economic recovery, a view backed up by the day’s consumer spending data and the latest Fed report on economic activity in the U.S.
…
LOL. I’m waiting for AFTER all 3 of those occur before buying again, as a matter of fact! Good grief, this economy is so bass-ackwards.
A pickup in the labor market together with a rebound in optimism is quite likely to continue driving prices higher from here. Why wait until everyone realizes the market is recovering before you get in?
The occurrence of 2 out of your 3 items will cause a drop in prices, although I’m sure you’ve ignored logic and already told your clients the opposite. I’ll leave it to you figure out which two.
Yeah, I’m sure optimism will help pay the mortgage every month.
And gotta love the bubble thinking. It’s comming back baby! Prices rise and all things are good again.
Treasuries falling in price means the big money guys are still in a flight to safety. I also suspect a lot of people are wising up and fleeing the Euro, Yen and Yuan.
That might maybe make a slight dent in prices.
Oh, and please ignore the forclosure reports and poor employment reports for the next few quarters.
In you might be right for the wrong reason category. Treasury rates going down will drive rates down and keep prices up.
Troll on. Curious? Who is paying you to be here? Your strategy only works on the uninformed.
Joey said he went on vacation for a week.
Excessive pessimism was a key factor that drove down home prices. WHy wouldn’t optimism over a recovery have the opposite effect? I don’t understand why the psoters here are always so gloomy.
Record High Defaults=CHECK
Record High Foreclosures=CHECK
Record Low Sales=CHECK
Record Price Declines=CHECK
Folks,
DO NOT buy any housing right now.
There is no stabilization in housing until we get back to early 1990’s prices, possibly even early 1980’s.
Let housing prices and rents collapse and don’t get in the way.
Why A Consumer-Led Recovery is Not In The Cards:
While the market cheers on the fantastic job “growth” of March 2010, the more astute of us are concerned with a growing tide of personal bankruptcies. March 2010 saw 158,000 bankruptcy filings. David Rosenberg of Gluskin-Sheff notes that this is an astounding 6,900 filings per day.
This latest filing is up 19% from March 2009’s number which occurred at the absolute nadir of the economic decline, when everyone thought the world was ending. It’s also up 35% from last month’s (February 2010) number.
Given the significance of this, I thought today we’d spend some time delving into numbers for the “median” American’s experience in the US today. Regrettably, much of the data is not up to date so we’ve got to go by 2008 numbers.
In 2008, the median US household income was $50,300. Assuming that the person filing is the “head of household” and has two children (dependents), this means a 1040 tax bill of $4,100, which leaves about $45K in income after taxes (we’re not bothering with state taxes). I realize this is a simplistic calculation, but it’s a decent proxy for income in the US in 2008.
Now, $45K in income spread out over 26 pay periods (every two weeks), means a bi-weekly paycheck of $1,730 and monthly income of $3,460. This is the money “Joe America” and his family to live off of in 2008.
Now, in 2008, the median home value was roughly $225K. Assuming our “median” household put down 20% on their home (unlikely, but it used to be considered the norm), this means a $180K mortgage. Using a 5.5% fixed rate 30-year mortgage, this means Joe America’s 2008 monthly mortgage payments were roughly $1,022.
So, right off the bat, Joe’s monthly income is cut to $2,438.
According to the US Department of Agriculture, the average 2008 monthly food bill for a family of four ranged from $512-$986 depending on how “liberal” you are with your purchases. For simplicity’s sake we’ll take the mid-point of this range ($750) as a monthly food bill.
This brings Joe’s monthly income to $1,688.
Now, Joe needs light, energy, heat, and air conditioning to run his home. According to the Energy Information Administration, the average US household used about 920 kilowatt-hours per month in 2008. At a national average price of 11 cents per kilowatt-hour this comes to a monthly electrical bill of $101.20.
Joe’s now down to $1,587.
Now Joe needs to drive to work to make a living. Similarly, he needs to be able to drive to the grocery store, doctor, etc. According to AAA, the average cost per mile of driving a minivan (Joe’s a family man) in 2008 was 57 cents per mile. This cost is based on average fuel consumption, tires, maintenance, insurance, license and registration, and average loan finance charges.
Multiply this cost by 15,000 miles per year and you’ve got an annual driving bill of $8,550. Divide this into months (by 12) and you’ve got a monthly driving bill of $712.
Joe’s now down to $877 (I’m also assuming Joe’s family only has ONE car). Indeed, if Joe’s family has two cars (one minivan and one sedan) he’s already run out of money for the month.
Now, assuming Joe’s family is one of the lucky ones (depending on your perspective) they’ve got medical insurance. Trying to find an average monthly medical insurance premium for a family in the US is extremely difficult because insurance plans have a wide range in deductibles, premiums, and co-pays. But according to eHealth Insurance, the average monthly premium for family policies in February 2008 was $369.
So if Joe has medical insurance on his family, he’s now down to $508. Throw in cell phone bills, cable TV and Internet bills, and the like, and he’s maybe got $100-200 discretionary income left at the end of the month.
This analysis covers all of the basic necessities of the average American household: mortgage payments, food, energy, gas, driving expenses, and medical insurance. It also assumes that Joe:
1.Didn’t overpay for his house
2.Made a 20% down-payment of $45K on his home purchase
3.Has no debt aside from his mortgage (so no credit card debt, student loans, etc)
4.Only has one car in the family and drives 15,000 miles per year
5.Keeps his energy bill reasonable
6.Does not eat out at restaurants ever/ keeps food expenses moderate
7.Has no pets
8.Pays for health insurance but has no monthly medical expenses (unlikely with two kids)
9.Keeps his personal budget under control regarding cable TV, Internet, and the like
10.Doesn’t spoil his kids with toys, gadgets, trips to the movies, etc.
11.Doesn’t take vacations.
(From Graham Summers)
As I’ve said, eventually the rising vector of prices will cross the falling vector of wages and that is the end of our 75% consumer driven economy.
If not this time, then certainly the next.
The mass of $50k/yr men lead lives of quiet desperation.
Muggy
Check this out: $500 red light camera ticket in Culver City:
http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=125990368
(That’s high compared to other cities in So Ca)
I guess more people will drive without a license and uninsured….
Time for law abiding citizens to double or triple their uninsured motorist coverage….yesterday!!!!!!
“Every year, Culver City’s photo and video enforcement program catches thousands of violators and generates about $2 million in fines. Most of the revenue goes to the private red-light camera vendor and to the state.”
WTF!
Most of the revenue goes to the private red-light camera vendor
I think it’s because we’re socialists…
I was vacationing in Los Angeles last month and stayed at the Extended Stay America in Culver City. The flash from their cameras went off while I was driving a rental car through one of their intersections. I wonder what happens to the violation under those circumstances. For the record, my passenger said there was no way the light was red.
http://www.nctimes.com/business/article_fa8b8a2a-0fc6-526a-b125-d86bec3d79c4.html
Bank of America signals a surge in foreclosures. And so it begins. Or accelerates, anyway.
Boston Herald
Fed reports see state, nation on road to recovery
By Jay Fitzgerald
Thursday, April 15, 2010
The Massachusetts and national economies are showing increasing signs of recovery from the worst recession since World War II, according to separate Federal Reserve reports yesterday.
Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke told lawmakers in Washington, D.C., yesterday that he sees a “moderate economic recovery” now under way, though he said it could take a “significant amount of time” to restore the 8.5 million jobs lost during the recent downturn.
A separate “Beige Book” report by the Fed seemed to be more optimistic - with Massachusetts appearing to recover slightly faster than other hard-hit regions across the nation.
A number of key regional industries - including manufacturing, retail, information technology, residential housing, and consulting and advertising - saw positive improvements in recent months, according to the survey of regional business executives.
Perhaps most encouraging: The massive layoffs of last year now seem to be a thing of the past.
“Most New England employers are no longer shedding workers, and many are restoring recession-induced cuts in wages and benefits,” the Fed regional report said.
…
This guy is probably trying to scare others into selling property so he can buy it for cheap at the bottom, then sell in a year or so at a higher price.
The Washington Post
US-BUSINESS Summary
Wednesday, April 14, 2010; 9:49 PM
Zell sees political risk to investing in U.S.
BOSTON (Reuters) - The policies of the current U.S. administration have created “political risk” to investing in the United States, billionaire real estate investor Sam Zell said on Wednesday. Appearing on a panel at the Urban Land Institute’s real estate summit in Boston, Zell said “what’s going on now is frightening” and working to undermine confidence, although he allowed that an economic recovery is under way.