Arizona Home Sales Falling, 2,400 Spec Homes In Phoenix
Some Arizona sales numbers are out. ” The pace of Valley home resales continued to fall in January, the Arizona Real Estate Center reported Friday. With 5,260 recorded sales in January 2006, the greater Phoenix resale market fell from 6,480 sales in December 2005 and from 9,360 sales in January 2005.”
“‘The primary news of last year’s housing market was the rapid rise in the median home price from $194,000 in January to $260,000 in December,’ said Jay Butler. ‘However, since the record of $263,000 was set in September, the growth rate has disappeared, with the median price being $257,000 in January.’”
“The Phoenix resale home market decreased from 2,685 sales to 1,635 sales. Scottsdale’s resale home market declined from 785 to 400 recorded sales. Resales in Mesa declined from 1,060 to 615 sales. Glendale decreased from 640 to 410 sales. The Sun City resale market fell from 160 to 100 sales. And resale activity in Sun City West also slowed from 95 to 40 sales.”
“The resale market in Gilbert fell from 565 to 310 sales. Chandler’s resale market slowed from 625 to 330 recorded sales. Tempe’s resales decreased from 195 a year ago to 140 sales. Avondale fell from 220 to 150 sales. El Mirage resales decreased from 150 to 70. Goodyear’s resale home market fell from 195 to 100 sales. Surprise decreased from 370 sales to 165.”
And a reader sent in this site. “The Phoenix metropolitan area continues to experience strong growth in the numbers of specs and subdivisions. The following details substantiate this claim. We expect both trends to continue for at least several weeks.”
“We have been predicting that early in 2006 the spec home inventory would surpass the all-time high count of 2,400 from May 2003. With 92 more reported in the past week, the market now boasts 2,431 spec homes! The old record has been surpassed. Looking back, we see there are now almost three times as many spec homes than only 3 months ago. And since the lowest level recorded in 2005, the spec home inventory grew over six times!”
“In the last week alone, we have recorded 12 new subdivisions! Now at 715, the market has 154 more subdivisions than in the fourth week of January 2005. Since the lowest count in 2005, there are now 244 more subdivisions. We have witnessed a growth of 67%. The last time we recorded 715 subdivisions was during the summer of 2004.”
Arizona HPI
44% YOY decline in sales. 44%. Is that a soft landing? No freaking way. And note I’m talking YOY, not month-on-month, which can be seasonally impacted.
Ben:
Sorry OT, but thought you might like this…..
Symbol AMV
AmeriVest liquidating itself
Friday February 10, 12:38 pm ET
AmeriVest Properties Inc. has approved a plan to liquidate the company.
The Denver-based self-administered and self-managed real estate investment trust (AMEX: AMV - News) said the plan is subject to approval by stockholders holding a majority of the company’s outstanding shares of common stock. The company expects to present the liquidation plan “as soon as reasonably practicable,” according to a news release.
48 Hour Sale in Phx…$50k off
Sign of things getting even worse in Phx?
http://www.meritagehomes-phx.com/pdf/48_hour_sale.pdf
check out the last 6 months. We have more than doubling of inventory and 50% monthly sales decline.
And if we calculate months of supply of housing by using total inventory divided by total sale in one month we get:
8/05: 1.5 months of supply
2/06: 6 months supply
Inventory_______Total Sales Volume
8/30: 15,042____8/05 sold: 10,700
9/30: 18,799____9/05 sold: 9,815
10/30: 23,770___10/05 sold: 8,420
11/30: 26,811___11/05 sold: 7,195
12/30: 27,455___12/05 sold: 6,480
1/30: 32,512____1/06 sold: 5,260
2/10: 34,237
Bubble Markets Inventory Tracking
Looks like an awfully hard landing in PHX. I guess they ran out of greater fools in AZ.
I am wondering when this trend will hit Silly Valley?
These are the numbers for total inventory in Santa Clara County (source: mlslistings.com)
2/6/2006 3098
2/7/2006 3144
2/8/2006 3195
2/9/2006 3239
2/10/2006 3261
Inventory is definitely heading up. How far remains to be seen.
Also, I’d like to add - I find that there are active listings on http://www.mlslistings.com that do not show up on the ZipRealty website. This is why I prefer mlslistings.com for tracking purposes.
How does the number of subdivisions ever go down? Are they just planned, or actually existing and broken ground?
Subdivisions go down when all the houses in a sub are sold. I can’t confirm that there are 715 active subs, but based upon what I’ve seen, it’s quite possible. Homebuilding as far as the eye can see.
phoenix is averaging 165 increase in homes a day since 1/1/06 based on oc’s data. sorry to overstate the obvious, but let’s look ahead to may 31 this year and we’re at 34,237 plus additional 18,150 equals 52,387.
will this finally get newsweek’s attention?
Nothing gets Newsweak’s attention unless….(Fill in the blank).
newsweek blows, my mom cancelled her subscription in 1993. i can’t recall seeing it at the stand either. call andy rooney, maybe he’ll do a piece.
Slightly OT but this is pretty amusing:
A house erroneously valued at $400 million is being blamed for budget shortfalls and possible layoffs in municipalities and school districts in northwest Indiana.
http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/news/archive/2006/02/10/national/a110332S54.DTL
oh my gawsh steven, that is nuts.
lets see how re cheerleaders spin this one. A 56% drop in sales from january of 05(when investors were buying everything in site). Wasn’t there a report that came out that said 24% of the purchases last year were by the investors, yeah right how about double that. Good Luck.
Hi from Phoenix
You know things are getting scary in Phoenix when co workers post an ad for a house on the company online HR site. There is a site to post items for sale. Most employees use this site to advertise used furniture, cars, pets, concert tickets, etc. Today there was this ad for a house. Can anyone say “flipper”
I have a 2560 sq ft Fulton Home For Sale. This home is located in Queen Creek at the cross streets of Ocotillo & Ironwood in the East Valley. 3 bdrms+ Den + Bonus Room 2.5 bath.
Tile in the entry, bathrooms and kitchen. All new appliances and carpeting throughout the rest of home. This property is a new build and has never been lived in. Has a good size backyard approx. 47 ft deep by 45 ft wide. Close to park and the Links Golf Course. Front yard is now desert landscaped which is not reflected in the pictures.
Presently installing Craftsman Garage Door Opener, Epoxy of the Garage Floor, Ceiling Fans and Window Blinds. Asking $324,500.
Pictures can be viewed at http://www.FSBO.Com Listing# ID 79765
Wow, that guy doesn’t know when to stop putting money into a property. It would take roughly a $180K down payment to make it cash flow positive as a rental so thats out. Also seems pretty pricey for your average PHX area buyer with a small down payment taht would give you close to a $2K a month payment. Looks like he had it listed with an agent before going FSBO route if that post in the front yard means anything. Please keep an eye on this poster child for being too late to the party and let us know when he lowers the price.
waht a dump in queen creek, i’ll give him 124k…. better yet, he could not pay me 124k to live there. i would rather live in moscow.
moscow, russia of course
what is this guy trying to pull? He’s got his listing on the MLS. see MLS #2440020. He’s got a price reduction of only $3500. I say he’s not motivated enough.
We have two others right on the same street, same model, one is listing for $306,900, straight from the builder (MLS #: 2447839). The other is from a desparate owner/agent/flipper that needs to sell THIS week, listing for $299,900 and on the market for 137 days (MLS #: 2407824).
…and friend of a fried on his way from L.A. to Phx to list his 4 investment properties for sale, they have “doubled” in value in 2 years and now he wants to buy a home for himself…. How fast can 2 years of appreciation “doubling” get wiped out? Any guesses?