May 7, 2010

Bits Bucket For May 7, 2010

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302 Comments »

Comment by sleepless_near_seattle
2010-05-07 01:55:29

The Fed audit failed in the Senate but look on the bright side! At least we got Cash for Caulkers to pass the House!

Comment by pressboardbox
2010-05-07 03:58:45

Only commie bills have a chance any more.

Comment by arizonadude
2010-05-07 07:37:53

They are wheeling out the PPT again today.Obama is going to speak about the great jobs report.

Comment by Professor Bear
2010-05-07 07:50:59

It looks like the PPT is losing its heft any more.

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Comment by pressboardbox
2010-05-07 09:24:13

No, I think they just had to take the market down so some of the “busted-trades” by the big Goldman-guy-type traders could be unwound without huge losses. Once everything gets “fixed” they will bring it back up again.

 
Comment by Green Shoots
2010-05-07 10:48:40

This uncertainty over the soundness of U.S. trading systems should be a boon to Wall Street investment banks who can make lots of money on big down moves by selling stocks short. And if only the ECB would step in and do something, even Main Street investors could start to see their stock market investments pay off once again.
=================================================
Bloomberg
Stocks Slide as Market Rout Triggers Trading-Systems Concern
May 07, 2010, 11:43 AM EDT

More From Businessweek
* Bull Market Intact for Biggest U.S. Equity Managers (Update2)
* Belgacom Sees Margin Pressure; Stock Erases 2010 Gain (Update3)

By Michael P. Regan and Rita Nazareth

May 7 (Bloomberg) — Global stocks and the bonds of debt- laden nations tumbled after Europe’s debt crisis spurred a market rout yesterday that undermined confidence in financial trading mechanisms. Oil slid 2.4 percent to lead commodities lower.

The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index fell as much as 3 percent before paring losses to 1.3 percent as of 11:39 a.m. in New York, leaving it little changed for the year. The MSCI World Index sank 2.2 percent and the Stoxx Europe 600 Index plunged 3.9 percent to the lowest since November. Greece led a drop in bonds of deficit-stricken European nations, with the 10-year yield premium demanded to own the securities instead of benchmark German bunds rising to a record of more than 9 percentage points.

Regulators are reviewing a plunge that briefly wiped out more than $1 trillion in market value yesterday as the Dow Jones Industrial Average slid almost 1,000 points before paring losses. Concern over the trading mechanisms that caused the volatility overshadowed the biggest growth in U.S. jobs in four years. Equities today pared earlier losses amid speculation the European Central Bank will announce measures to stem the region’s debt crisis.

The market is manic,” said Philip Orlando, the New York- based chief equity market strategist at Federated Investors, which manages about $400 billion. “The ECB needs to step in here and do something. If that really becomes true, we start to rally and focus on the terrific jobs report we had this morning. They could have solved this six months ago. There’s still a lot of concern about contagion. Investors are scared to death.

 
Comment by X-GSfixr
2010-05-07 11:19:00

Everybody knows that there is a disconnect between stock prices vs. reality. The trick to maximizing profits is to have your track shoes on, and be the first to panic when the SHTF.

Yesterday was just someone mistaking a car backfire for the starting gun.

 
Comment by CA renter
2010-05-08 03:46:19

+1 :)

 
 
Comment by Cantankerous Intellectual Bomb-thrower
2010-05-07 10:51:08

Ho, hum — another boring trading day in beautiful downtown NYC.

* May 7, 2010, 1:24 PM ET

Breaking: Times Square Closed Due to a ‘Suspicious Package’

By Nikki Waller

Times Square is currently blocked to cars and pedestrians for what police are calling a “suspicious package”. Streets are closed from 44th to 47th street and includes Seventh Avenue and Broadway. Police are allowing crosstown traffic through at 44th, but passage is slow because hundreds of pedestrians are gathered around police barriers and blocking traffic.

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Comment by ET-Chicago
2010-05-07 11:08:53

There used to be a lot more “suspicious packages” in Times Square in its seedy glory days …

 
Comment by arizonadude
2010-05-07 11:28:26

Someone left some water bottles in a cooler, OMG!

 
 
Comment by Cantankerous Intellectual Bomb-thrower
2010-05-07 12:24:14

Is there any way to determine how much short interest is controlled by Wall Street Megabanks at a point in time? They must be raking in a fortune on today’s crash, which apparently was precipitated in part by rainmakers at Citi and Morgan Stanley.

MarketWatch dot com
Investor Alert
Wall Street vying with fear’s grip

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Comment by Cantankerous Intellectual Bomb-thrower
2010-05-07 04:28:14

“The Fed audit failed in the Senate…”

It ain’t over till it’s over. It is concerning that it appears that discount window borrowing may be off the audit block, as making massive amounts of loans at zero percent interest rates through the discount window during the crisis hardly seems to fall under the scope of of ordinary monetary policy operations, and had to have offered a huge market advantage to some private financial institutions which were enabled to continue making outsized profits and paying ginormous bonus payments while other parts of the U.S. economy were crumbling.

But perhaps a careful scrutiny of the wealth effects of the Fed’s myriad “special lending facilities” would be enough to make the point; plus a close look at the rationale behind the Fed’s MBS purchase program.

I find most curious in this WSJ Blog article the passage discussing why the revised bill will make it “…easier for the Fed and the Obama administration to get their way.” Whatever happened to that business about “monetary policy independence” that needed to be protected from a Congressional audit?

WSJ Blogs
Real Time Economics
Economic insight and analysis from The Wall Street Journal.

* May 7, 2010, 5:00 AM ET

Audit-the-Fed: What’s Next for the Central Bank?

The Federal Reserve won a key battle Thursday when Sen. Bernie Sanders (I., Vt.) agreed to substantially alter his provision to audit the central bank’s operations. But pressure from the audit-the-Fed movement is far from over.

First, the latest action: Sen. Sanders, after intense lobbying by the Obama administration and Fed officials, removed language in his amendment to the financial-regulation overhaul that would’ve opened the Fed’s monetary policy deliberations to audits by the congressional Government Accountability Office. The original Sanders amendment eliminated restrictions — passed by the Senate in May 1978 — that block the GAO from reviewing the Fed’s monetary policy actions, discount window lending, open market operations and transactions with foreign central banks or governments.

Instead, the new Sanders amendment requires a one-time audit of the Fed’s emergency credit facilities and an audit of Fed governance, looking at the selection of regional bank directors and the operation of regional banks’ lending facilities. The measure still requires the Fed to identify publicly borrowers from its emergency lending facilities and other special programs by December 1. But it doesn’t stipulate ongoing disclosure; the Fed is only required to disclose details of loans made through enactment of the financial regulation overhaul.

Why did a bill that’s acceptable to Sen. Sanders and top Democrats — along with the Obama administration and the Fed — get postponed anyway for a full vote? Because at least one Republican lawmaker objected to having a vote Thursday on the substitute amendment. Of the 24 co-sponsors of the pre-modified Sanders amendment, 14 were from the GOP. Sen. David Vitter (R., La.), a fierce Fed critic who has long backed the audit-the-Fed movement, wants a side-by-vote on the pre-modified bill that calls for more oversight of the central bank. If he succeeds, that vote would come Tuesday at the earliest. (Given the White House involvement, and the agreement with Sen. Sanders, it’s unlikely that the pre-modified bill would pass.)

That’s the Senate. The House already passed a stringent audit-the-Fed measure — authored by Rep. Ron Paul (R., Texas), the leading Fed foe in Congress — as part of its financial regulation bill in December. That makes it yet another provision that would need to be reconciled with a Senate bill when the House and Senate move to a conference committee (assuming the full Senate passes a financial regulation overhaul). Anything can happen behind closed doors in a conference committee. But the scaled-back version of the audit-the-Fed provision in the Senate makes it easier for the Fed and Obama administration to get their way.

Then there are longer-term issues that will keep pressure on the central bank. The Fed took extraordinary actions, going to the edge of its authorities, to fight the financial crisis and economic downturn. Lawmakers continue to criticize its bailouts of financial institutions and other aggressive moves. “If the Fed had not stepped onto fiscal territory, this wouldn’t happen,” says Axel Merk, president of Merk Investments LLC. “I don’t think it’s helpful for the Fed to be audited. But politicians now want to have a greater say in what’s happening at the Fed.”

Now the debate is turning to the Fed’s $1.1 trillion in holdings of mortgage-backed securities. Some Fed officials want them offloaded sooner than others to increase the Fed’s flexibility. The increased risk of political attack could lead a few policy makers to raise the volume of their arguments, in order to get out of politicians’ crosshairs before Congress takes even more severe action against the Fed.

Sudeep Reddy and Victoria McGrane

 
Comment by pressboardbox
2010-05-07 04:51:49

The thing people need to understand to predict the outcome of any new legistation is simple: WGSB? Would Goldman Sachs Benefit? If the answer is NO, then the bill is doomed from the start. Its really pretty simple.

Comment by nycjoe
2010-05-07 06:22:56

Doesn’t EVERYTHING benefit Goldman? They are (doing) God(’s) (work) on Earth, right? Or maybe we could adapt the Muslim line and say it, whatever, will happen insh’Sachs, or Allah/Goldman willing?

 
Comment by Pondering the Mess
2010-05-07 09:10:29

Yep!

The Fed is the government is the bankers. Nothing will change.

Comment by neuromance
2010-05-07 19:31:20

They’re the lawyers too. Which is why you heard nary a peep about tort reform during the healthcare reform melee.

What’s that saying - “The town with only one lawyer ensures he will starve, but the town with two lawyers makes both of them rich.”

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Comment by Professor Bear
2010-05-07 04:56:54

I know this is probably wishful thinking, but perhaps the Fed’s auditors could explore what immediate influence the Fed has on stock prices. For instance, was the timing of yesterday’s record intraday drop in the DJIA, which happened as the “Audit the Fed” measure was under consideration in the Senate, purely coincidental?

More broadly speaking, is the Fed’s involvement in price support limited to containing inflation, or does it now extend beyond the realm of traditional monetary policy into the area of asset price support. The wealth redistribution role implicit in asset price support seems quite far removed from the goal of maintaining a stable currency.

Stock Decline: It’s Not Just About Greece
Posted by: Ben Steverman on May 6, 2010

As the Dow Jones industrial average plunged 9.2% today — the biggest intraday decline since Oct. 19, 1987 — cable news channels were showing protests in Athens. The video gave the impression that the stock decline and the Greek fiscal crisis were directly linked.

Not so fast. Many suspect there was some technical problem that spooked the markets and sent stocks diving, then dramatically rebounding this afternoon.

“We’re due for a correction, but nothing of this magnitude,” says Gary Wolfer, chief economist at Univest Wealth Management. “What occurred here is unfathomable and it must have been some technical problem.”

Comment by OcBystander
2010-05-07 06:27:32

I said the exact same thing to my wife last night, what are the chances of a vote on of a Fed Audit Bill (that is the first of its kind in over 100 years) happening on the same day (or even the same week) as an historic drop in the Dow. Technical glitch, ha, if all this PPT talk is true, possible show of force IMHO.

From Wiki on the PPT:
Former Federal Reserve Board member Robert Heller, in the Wall Street Journal, opined that “Instead of flooding the entire economy with liquidity, and thereby increasing the danger of inflation, the Fed could support the stock market directly by buying market averages in the futures market, thereby stabilizing the market as a whole.” His statement has been used to claim that the Fed actually did act in that way. Mainstream analysts call those claims a conspiracy theory, explaining that such claims are simplistic and unworkable.

What is even scarier is how much PB has me thinking like him. Gives me the eeb-e-dee-bejeebees.

Comment by GrizzlyBear
2010-05-07 07:48:30

The PPT is bringing out the big guns right now. It’s a real struggle to carry the entire stock market, I’d imagine. The DOW looks like it’s on the verge of a total collapse.

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Comment by Pondering the Mess
2010-05-07 09:12:39

“I said the exact same thing to my wife last night, what are the chances of a vote on of a Fed Audit Bill (that is the first of its kind in over 100 years) happening on the same day (or even the same week) as an historic drop in the Dow. Technical glitch, ha, if all this PPT talk is true, possible show of force IMHO.”

Bingo.

The huge drop in the market was Goldman saying, “Don’t you DARE audit us/the Fed - see what we can do to the market in 10 minutes? Imagine what we’d do if you really ticked us off. Feeling lucky, punk?”

There is NO WAY a “fat finger” produced the brief crash. If simple human error could cause that type of carnage, it woudl happen every day when one considers the number of trades and number of people involved in the market on a daily basis.

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Comment by CA renter
2010-05-08 03:57:09

Not only that, but the fact that it wasn’t just the stock market that was seeing big moves (gold, oil, currencies, etc. all at the same time) made me think it was much bigger than a “fat finger.”

 
 
Comment by lavi d
2010-05-07 12:18:49

…possible show of force IMHO.

Nice little stock market you got there. Be a shame if anything were to happen to it…

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Comment by Cantankerous Intellectual Bomb-thrower
2010-05-07 06:51:39

The fact that a small “technical glitch” could account for a 1000 point intraday drop in the DJIA serves to show what a high-stakes electronic casino the U.S. stock market has become. Gamble away, boyz, because the PPT has your backs!

Comment by Green Shoots
2010-05-07 07:10:00

Dang — that fat finger guy is back again today, jumping up and down on my Green Shoots!

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Comment by Bad Chile
2010-05-07 07:28:05

Good thing it was a small technical glitch. Imagine if it had been a big technical glitch.

(Yes, I’m angry I was in a meeting and missed a chance to get Boston Beer Company for a penny).

 
Comment by GrizzlyBear
2010-05-07 07:46:08

Yes, the “fat finger” made an encore appearance today. The DOW dropped nearly 100 points in a matter of seconds moments ago, then did another miracle turnaround. Are they going to void those trades, too?

 
Comment by Pondering the Mess
2010-05-07 09:14:49

I love the nonsense about voiding the trades during that drop. Yeah, how much you wanna bet that Goldman’s trades were NOT voided and they picked up a bunch of stocks cheap while profiting from shorting things on the way down.

It’s all a rigged scam, and now the market makers can determine which trades to keep and which ones to void. “Sorry, but you made too much money on your trade - that must have been glitch, so it doesn’t count!”

 
Comment by pressboardbox
2010-05-07 09:34:39

Fat-Finger-Friday!!!

 
Comment by Kim
2010-05-07 10:24:26

“Yeah, how much you wanna bet that Goldman’s trades were NOT voided and they picked up a bunch of stocks cheap while profiting from shorting things on the way down.”

Naw… too much scrutiny on GS right now to let their trades stand and cancel everyone elses.

 
 
 
Comment by GrizzlyBear
2010-05-07 07:57:39

“We’re due for a correction, but nothing of this magnitude,” says Gary Wolfer, chief economist at Univest Wealth Management. “What occurred here is unfathomable and it must have been some technical problem.”

I think Gary is in denial. He doesn’t understand the problems with over-capitalized bad banks hanging out in the Wall St. casino.

 
Comment by neuromance
2010-05-07 19:32:53

For instance, was the timing of yesterday’s record intraday drop in the DJIA, which happened as the “Audit the Fed” measure was under consideration in the Senate, purely coincidental?

The wizard took his hands off the controls, and left an underling in charge. I think the same sort of thing happened to the Exxon Valdez.

 
 
Comment by palmetto
2010-05-07 05:20:53

Handling that oil slick doesn’t seem to be able to pass, either.

I’m pissed.

Comment by arizonadude
2010-05-07 06:04:50

They blamed it all on a trading glitch so the sheeple dont panic, GMAFB here.Casino royale at its finest.

Comment by Shizo
2010-05-07 07:34:36

The “black swan” event…? Even if by “accident”?

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Comment by Housing Wizard
2010-05-07 08:23:06

What ever happened to the law-suit against the Feds where they loss on the Audit issue ?
Anyway ,I have been saying for years now that they gave
zero % loans on junk paper at full value to all kinds of entities ,including insurance companies and hedge funds and unregulated entities ,other Countries (and it was high market evaluation of that junk ) leading up to the Tarp bail out . They also used F&F for a dumping ground for more toxic asset paper . God knows where else the Feds interjected funds in the name of the
Discount Window no qualifying buy junk program .

All the entities that benefited by programs such as this knew darn well the value of that junk ,but nothing like being able to to be bailed out using that means .
Do you want to give me a 900k loan on my 300k house ? Why not ,the Feds did it for these entities . Kinda like the cash for clunkers program or the junk lending that was done to begin with .
Some people put these bail-outs in the trillions .
If the Feds had this power without authorization by Congress,than the Feds have to much power . . I think the Feds pushed their Authority ,and the Feds side-kick at the time , the Treasury Sec. Hank Paulson from Goldmans, was the guy with all the plans .
I think the American people need to be protected from traitors or nut-cake Fed Chairmen or Treasury Sec. that might be operating in other than the interest of the American People . If you remember these two were telling the Americans people that everything was contained while they were making these bail out plays without transparency .
The FDIC is suppose to take over banks that are insolvent or lacking reserves ,so what is this BS with the Feds .

 
Comment by Pondering the Mess
2010-05-07 09:22:08

But we needed to Bailout out the crooks or they wouldn’t have been able to keep robbing us!

Yeah, the Fed should be taken over by the FDIC for being bankrupt, both financially and morally!

 
 
Comment by GrizzlyBear
2010-05-07 07:37:52

Well, then, the “trading glitch” must still be a problem, because the DOW dropped almost 100 points straight down in a matter of seconds just a moment ago. This isn’t a trading glitch, it’s Megabank, Inc., flush with liquidity, fooling around with their algorithmic trading levers.

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Comment by Housing Wizard
2010-05-07 08:41:55

I don’t like playing rigged games ,what’s the point .Throw all the bums out of our Political Body because they are not looking out for the Majority interest . They can’t even come up with one Bill that isn’t corrupted ,or watered down ,or pure BS .

We have had Great Politicians and thinkers from the pass
warn us about the potential for this sort of corruption . God it only took them about 7 years to crash the World economies with their get rich quick manufactured fake money Ponzi-schemes .
You trust this scum that only seem to get richer while they
throw everybody else under the bus . I just love to hear who they expect to practice austerity ,so they don’t have to . Give up give up give up so we can keep our book going is their motto . I use to watch those Cheerleaders get pissed when they gave money to anybody but Wall Street Money Changers .And financial reform ,its almost like Congress is asking the culprits permission on what they approve of .

 
Comment by Professor Bear
2010-05-07 08:45:43

Right. And the Senate just agreed to make sure Wall Street’s largest and most pernicious weather makers will be able to stay monopolistic enough going forward to forever more continue stirring up volatility tornadoes on a whim. I guess it is now up to the American people to rein in the fat cats by firing the politicians who protect them. Hopefully the stock market will drop so far that their market caps shrink to the size of Fannie Mae’s.

Senate Kills Bid To Limit Size Of Banks
by Audie Cornish
May 6, 2010

A bipartisan Senate coalition has rejected a proposal to limit the size of the nation’s largest banks as a means of reining in the financial sector.

The Senate voted 61-33 against a proposal that would have required the nation’s giant banks to split up. The Obama administration has argued that the size of financial institutions was not the root cause of the 2008 Wall Street crisis.

The proposal by Democratic Sens. Sherrod Brown of Ohio and Ted Kaufman of Delaware was opposed by the bank industry. Brown and Kaufman argued that cutting banks down to size would end firms deemed “too big to fail.”

Among the banks that would have been affected were Bank of America, JPMorgan Chase, Citigroup, Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley.

 
Comment by sfbubblebuyer
2010-05-07 09:03:04

I would think that this is an OBVIOUS thing to do. Apparently not.

 
Comment by Pondering the Mess
2010-05-07 09:24:51

So Too Big To Fail is now going to be a permanent part of our financial and economic landscape. Yep, that’ll end in disaster, for sure… sadly.

 
Comment by ET-Chicago
2010-05-07 10:16:56

From the bottom of the Professor’s linked story:

The Senate then turned its attention to another amendment opposed by the Obama administration — a proposed audit of the Federal Reserve that has bipartisan support and that even Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-NV) has said he is inclined to support.

It would require the Federal Reserve to undergo a thorough audit by Congress’ investigative arm, the Government Accountability Office.

The measure, proposed by Vermont independent Sen. Bernie Sanders, has populist support from across the political spectrum, from Tea Party activists to liberals and labor organizations. The Federal Reserve and the Treasury oppose the measure, arguing it could interfere with the Fed’s independence, a crucial element if the Fed is to carry out unpopular but economically essential policies.

 
Comment by GrizzlyBear
2010-05-07 10:23:46

“The measure, proposed by Vermont independent Sen. Bernie Sanders, has populist support from across the political spectrum, from Tea Party activists to liberals and labor organizations. The Federal Reserve and the Treasury oppose the measure, arguing it could interfere with the Fed’s independence, a crucial element if the Fed is to carry out unpopular but economically essential policies.”

And thus it is not supported by the Obama administration either, as the president has proven himself as just another pigman’s puppet. A shame- I thought the guy might have at least a bit of spine. He’s nothing but a whore.

 
Comment by ET-Chicago
2010-05-07 10:28:48

By the way, here’s the official roll call on Brown and Kaufman’s proposed amendment if you’d like to see how your favorite politicians voted. Most of the yes votes came from left-of-center types, but there were also yes votes from conservatives such as Sen. Coburn of OK.

 
 
 
 
Comment by Cantankerous Intellectual Bomb-thrower
2010-05-07 08:35:35

The biggest news yesterday on financial reform may have been that too-to-big-to-regulate banks will continue to exist in that status going forward. You may as well start warning your children that they will some day bear the price of tomorrow’s too-big-to-fail Megabank, Inc bailouts.

 
Comment by Cantankerous Intellectual Bomb-thrower
2010-05-07 10:55:06

No audit, huh?

And the discriminatory zero-interest-rate discount window lending to preferred Fed customers *is* on the audit table.

May 7, 2010, 9:33 a.m. EDT

Dodd reaches deal with Sanders on audit-the-Fed measure
Bill would have Fed disclose names of bank recipients of emergency loans
By Ronald D. Orol, MarketWatch

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) — A measure requiring the government to conduct a one-time audit of the Federal Reserve and release the names of institutions that received more than $2 trillion in loans from the central bank is set to be voted on in the Senate next Tuesday.

The provision will come to a vote on the Senate floor as a result of a compromise reached late Thursday.

The legislation, which has bipartisan support, is expected to be approved and attached to sweeping bank-reform legislation under consideration on Capitol Hill. It would need to be reconciled with a similar bill approved in the House last December.

The Senate measure would — for the first time in the central bank’s 95-year-history — require a Government Accountability Office audit of the financial institutions that borrowed from the Fed’s so-called discount window during the financial crisis. The discount window is a government lending facility through which commercial banks and, in response to the crisis, investment banks borrowed reserves.

In addition, the legislation would require the Fed to put on its Web site all of the recipients of the central bank’s emergency assistance since December 2007.

Several changes were made to the legislation, introduced by Sen. Bernie Sanders, I-Vt., to gain the backing of the Obama administration and Senate Banking Committee Chairman Christopher Dodd, D-Conn.

The legislation originally would have left open the possibility of future audits, but Sanders eventually compromised to stipulate that it would be a one-time audit.

Also, the provision originally would have required the names of bank recipients of the Fed’s emergency lending to be posted within 30 days of the reform bill’s approval, but the section was later changed so that the names need only be posted by December 2010.

The GAO would be required to begin its Fed audit within 30 days of enactment and completed within a year.

Comment by james
2010-05-07 11:26:26

And the liberals were silent.

Comment by SanFranciscoBayAreaGal
2010-05-07 22:37:54

Well no james,

This liberal is pissed that Sanders caved to the White house. This liberal is pissed that Kaufman’s amendement didn’t pass. There are a lot of us liberals that wanted these amendments to pass.

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Comment by CA renter
2010-05-08 04:04:16

Absolutely, SFBGal.

There are many of us “liberals” who are disappointed with Obama, and with our representatives. It’s not about party politics, it’s about what’s right.

 
 
 
 
Comment by ecofeco
2010-05-07 12:49:03

Holy moly this thread is all over the place.

 
 
Comment by wmbz
2010-05-07 03:51:57

Some slicksters made big bucks on the “unexpected” flash crash.

Six Mega Drops of the Flash Crash; Sam Adams Goes Flat

Exelon Corp. is one of the largest, most powerful utilities in the world, typically worth some $30 billion. For a brief moment Thursday, the stock market said it was worthless.

Exelon was just one of a number of stocks that produced bizarre, and presumably garbled, market quotes during the “Flash Crash” of the afternoon.

http://blogs.wsj.com/deals/2010/05/06/four-mega-drops-of-the-flash-crash-sam-adams-goes-flat/

Comment by nycjoe
2010-05-07 05:52:50

typos are contained. whew.

Comment by nycjoe
2010-05-07 06:01:13

So let me get this right. Every day, thousands of hyperventilating traders are hitting the button on orders, but yesterday, for the first time in history, somebody hit a ‘b’ instead of an ‘m’?

Comment by Hwy50ina49Dodge
2010-05-07 06:20:10

:-)

Additionally, their is nothing to “Automaically” catch such a mistake… even if he hit a T or a G

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Comment by nycjoe
2010-05-07 06:25:44

I think it would be more entertaining to think it was:

1) a little test by hackers from North Korea or China or Russia
2) a little score by anti-globalist monkey-wrenchers
3) Goldman doing God’s work again

 
Comment by Hwy50ina49Dodge
2010-05-07 07:02:35

I was thinkin’ more along these lines:

GoldenmanSucks: “you twist my arm,…then I’ll just slap your Gov’t nuts” :-)

 
 
Comment by packman
2010-05-07 06:33:32

So let me get this right. Every day, thousands of hyperventilating traders are hitting the button on orders, but yesterday, for the first time in history, somebody hit a ‘b’ instead of an ‘m’?

Yep - there has to be way more to this story than just a simple typo - a lot more.

Probably some change was made in software recently - e.g. the trading software actually allowed “billion” for the first time recently, and this guy was the unlucky one to be the first to type it in. Others in the past may have made the mistake, but were prevented by the software. But then traders actually wanted to make billion-dollar transactions, so they removed the restriction from the software.

I’ll bet that’s what happened.

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Comment by are they crazy
2010-05-07 09:10:43

Well if they really knew how to type, that type of mistake would be unlikely. B & M are different hands. How many people that spend their days on keyboards ever learned to type? I learned the old fashioned way on a typewriter aaa aaa ;;; ;;; …

 
Comment by Cantankerous Intellectual Bomb-thrower
2010-05-07 09:44:48

It’s hard to type well when you are feeling the fight-or-flight instinct that comes on with panic.

 
 
Comment by Pondering the Mess
2010-05-07 09:26:35

Yes, that is what we’re supposed to believe.

It couldn’t possibly have been computerized algorithms running amok… or more likely being directed to do various “interesting” things… I’d love to know what Goldman and the other crooks traded during that brief crash and how much money they made.

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Comment by Cantankerous Intellectual Bomb-thrower
2010-05-07 10:08:05

Wouldn’t it be nice to know how short Megabank, Inc gets before its cartel members start predicting 20 percent corrections?

 
Comment by Jim A.
2010-05-07 11:33:46

And of course the fact that things are SO tightly strung that the megabanks pay a premium to have the computers RUNNING their trading programs physically located close to the NYSE machines so that they can shave miliseconds off of the time it takes to make a trade. I tend to think that the “oops” Thursday was an example of “emergent behavior” of the sort that can happen when you have computers operating on different strategies more quickly than humans can intervene. The trading strategies are secret from one another, so you can’t “debug” them to see what hapens when they’re operating together. And of course with everybody feeling a little nervous, there’s probably more “sell quickly before the market tanks further” commands programmed in.

 
 
 
 
 
Comment by Asparagus
2010-05-07 03:52:27

Thank you Ben. Thank you everyone.

Wife and I bought a house outside of Boston at auction a couple months ago. We were the only people to bid at the auction. The bank bid 260k. We got if for 265k. Our bank then came and assessed it at 420k for the loan. Two weeks before that we lost a “bidding war” (by a lot) for a smaller, house for $390k.

Our rent was 1,100, now our mortgage, taxes and insurance are now $1,400 a month. That’s an increase, but we have tripled our living space and maybe more importantly five days after moving in, Mrs. A gave birth to a future ipod user.

I found this blog in 2007 (maybe 2006?). Looking for other people who thought the world had gone mad. Talk about hitting the jack-pot.

Donation coming….

Comment by nycjoe
2010-05-07 05:54:17

Nice story. How much cash did you need?

Comment by nycjoe
2010-05-07 06:46:03

Asparagus, hope my post didn’t sound snarky. I was just wondering how it worked out with the bank after the auction. Had been under the impression it wasn’t always possible for regular folks to get the money together quickly enough after an auction.

Comment by Asparagus
2010-05-07 06:57:22

Honestly,

We discovered the laws are incredible gray around that area. We basically took over the house right away, fixed up some stuff for occupancy permit, changed the locks, etc so the bank could come in and look at it. We talked to many lawyers who said look, it’s up to you to get this done, no judge in the world will care if you change the locks and add fire alarms on a house no one lives in.

Also, we went with a local bank who was very helpful. We went to some big banks who said they weren’t sure they could turn things around that quickly.

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Comment by nycjoe
2010-05-07 07:11:43

So you had some understanding, before the auction, with a small local bank?

 
Comment by Asparagus
2010-05-07 10:06:09

We had spoken to a number of banks/brokers previously and we also knew what we could afford and we had every document we needed, plus some, ready to go day 1.

We did not have an understanding in terms of the price of the house vs. the valuation. The bank had no idea what house it would be or whether it would meet their LTV levels. That was the risk that we took on. We had been looking at foreclosures for months and knew that this one was a great deal, so we were OK with taking that risk. If we didn’t get a loan we could have

 
Comment by Asparagus
2010-05-07 10:09:33

We had spoken to a number of banks/brokers previously and we also knew what we could afford and we had every document we needed, plus some, ready to go day 1.

We did not have an understanding in terms of the price of the house vs. the valuation. The bank had no idea what house it would be or whether it would meet their LTV levels. That was the risk that we took on. We had been looking at foreclosures for months and knew that this one was a great deal, so we were OK with taking that risk.

If we didn’t get a loan we could have either
1. Emptied our 401ks and borrowed from family or
2. Walked away from the 10k deposit.

 
Comment by Jim A.
2010-05-07 11:37:17

All of this illustrates why foreclosure auctions typically sell at a discount compared with brokered sales. ISTM however that the discount has gotten pretty severe considering how prevalent they’re becomming.

 
 
 
Comment by Asparagus
2010-05-07 07:00:09

nycjoe,

we needed to show up with a bank check for $10k. to be allowed to bid.

 
 
Comment by Hwy50ina49Dodge
2010-05-07 06:21:29

Congrats…x2 :-)

 
Comment by SV guy
2010-05-07 06:32:08

X3

Comment by Bad Chile
2010-05-07 06:47:15

Congrats…

You know why the market is going down in Boston?

Today is my last full day in Massachusetts. Ten years in the making…

 
 
Comment by Prime_Is_Contained
2010-05-07 09:40:50

Nice work, Asparagus! Congrats—hope you enjoy the new place…

 
Comment by CA renter
2010-05-08 04:09:25

Congratulations to you and Mrs. Asparagus on your new home and baby! :)

It’s wonderful to hear you got a good deal and can comfortably afford your home.

 
 
Comment by wmbz
2010-05-07 04:12:02

Employment in U.S. Probably Rose for Third Time in Four Months

May 7 (Bloomberg) — Employment in the U.S. probably grew in April for the third time in four months, a sign the recovery is becoming self-sustaining, economists said before a government report today.

Boosted by temporary workers hired to conduct the census, payrolls climbed by 190,000 workers last month, the most in three years, according to the median estimate of 84 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News. The jobless rate may have held at 9.7 percent.

Companies such as General Electric Co. are adding staff as sales improve, leading to gains in incomes that may spur consumer spending and additional hiring. At the same time, unemployment may take time to recede as Americans who had dropped out of the workforce resume the job hunt, one reason why the Federal Reserve says it will keep interest rates low.

“We’re seeing broad-based job growth,” said John Herrmann, a senior strategist at State Street Global Markets in Boston. “It’s all part of this building economic momentum. We expect the unemployment rate to grind lower this year.”

Comment by 2banana
2010-05-07 06:05:47

The “Real” Unemployment Rate Jumps To 17.1% (these people will not buy over priced shacks no matter what crazy incentives are out there!!!)
The Business Insider | 5-7-2010 | Joe Weisenthal

The BLS’s U-6 number, which is sometimes called the “real” unemployment rate, because it takes into discouraged workers who aren’t looking for work ticked up in April from 16.9% to 17.1%.

Here are some other internals:

* Persons unemployed 15 weeks or longer held steady at 5.8%.
* The average workweek increased .1 hours to 34.1 hours.
* Average hourly earnings increased by a single penny to $22.47.
* The Federal Government created 66,000 of the 290K jobs gained through the census.
* The birth/death adjustment (guess) added 188,000 jobs, which bears will seize on (because it is MADE up!!!)
* The Health Care industry created 20,000 new jobs. Manufacturing added 44,000 jobs (strong)

Comment by nycjoe
2010-05-07 06:50:01

CNBC said the marked was roiled by “unexpected” accurate reports of unemployment.

Comment by nycjoe
2010-05-07 06:58:05

um, market

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Comment by james
2010-05-07 08:32:23

I’m telling you guys, large swaths of the US of A particularly in the midwest are getting China level cheap with some other advantages.

So, I keep expecting exports to go up a bit more but imports, sans oil, to keep dropping.

If enough people wise up about driving SUVs, things will turn around a bit more.

Looking in the Cinci area, don’t know the hoods, but pretty nice looking 1700 sq ft houses for under 160K. You can afford them on 50K a year. Plenty of much lower cost housing ,that isn’t as nice, for people starting out.

Comment by GrizzlyBear
2010-05-07 10:31:20

$160k in Ohio just seems extraordinarily expensive given the economic situation. I’m thinking under $100k seems more appropriate.

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Comment by james
2010-05-07 11:30:01

Plenty of that kind of housing as well.

You can add all sorts of areas across the country. Only a few really stupid places, costal Cali, NYC, Va, NYC, Mass, NJ are still totally insane.

 
 
 
 
Comment by ecofeco
2010-05-07 12:58:36

I’m still trying to figure out how jobs were added but unemployment rose.

And why the MSM seems to think this is great news.

Uh, say what? Double plus good, right?

Comment by james
2010-05-07 13:21:55

A few things… you’ve got U3 vs U6 numbers.

A lot of the discouraged workers started to look for work and show back up. Like housing sales rising in the spring there tends to be hiring in the spring as well.

Also there is the birth/death model used by the BLS. The BLS just has this fudge factor guess from economic data, if there is GDP growth the inflate the hiring number even if it is not true.

I trust the private ADP report a lot more at this point. For example ADP refuses to include temporary hire of census workers but ADP excludes them.

Your buddy Barry will be trumpeting that BLS number and working that like crazy for November. I hope the Democrats get their nuts torn off at this point. Certainly deserve it for following big money like this.

Comment by ecofeco
2010-05-07 14:53:37

I am familiar with the U3 and U6 and BOTH rose.

Riddle me this, if an oxymoron is in plain sight but nobody notices, is it still and oxymoron?

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Comment by ecofeco
2010-05-07 14:57:30

Remind me again who paid the first TARP money? Hint: It begins with a G and ends with a Bush.

Who castrated the SEC? (Hint: same clues)

Told the FBI to look the other way when they reported massive and increasing mortgage and financial fraud? (Hint: quack, quack)

We won’t even get to the “reformation” of the bankruptcy laws and the complete destruction of civil rights.

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Comment by FB wants a do over
2010-05-07 04:17:26

California students sent home for wearing American flag shirts on Cinco de Mayo

MORGAN HILL, Calif. (AP) — The parents of several high school students who were sent home after showing up in clothing with American flags on Cinco de Mayo are blasting the school’s decision.

An assistant principal at Live Oak High School in Morgan Hill south of San Jose told the group of boys Wednesday to take off bandanas and shirts bearing American flags or turn the shirts inside out, according to some of the boys. At least one of the boys was also wearing shorts with the U.S. flag.

“They said we could wear it on any other day,” Daniel Galli, one of the boys, told San Jose’s KNTV. “But today is sensitive to Mexican-Americans because it’s supposed to be their holiday, so we were not allowed to wear it today.”

The boys say they were told the clothing was offending some Hispanic students and could spark fights.

They were given the choice to leave or face suspension, they said.

E-mails and phone messages left Thursday for school and district officials were not returned. But in a statement, the district called the incident “extremely unfortunate” and said it was investigating.

“While campus safety is our primary concern and administrators made decisions yesterday in an attempt to ensure campus safety, students should not and will not be disciplined for wearing patriotic clothing,” the statement read.

The boys said they had no intention of sparking conflict. At least two of them said they are part Hispanic.

Julie Fagerstrom, mother of one of the boys, said they were just being patriotic and displaying their individuality.

The boys have since met with a district official and been allowed to return to school and continue wearing the clothing.

But some students at the school objected.

“I think they should apologize ’cause it is a Mexican Heritage Day,” Annicia Nunez told KNTV. “We don’t deserve to get disrespected like that. We wouldn’t do that on Fourth of July.”

Comment by palmetto
2010-05-07 05:34:17

“We don’t deserve to get disrespected like that. We wouldn’t do that on Fourth of July.”

Yeah, you would, and you do. Not only that, you demonstrate massively in city streets at the drop of a hat, with Mexican flags, posters of Che, whatever. Plus, you don’t give a sh*t about dissing US citizens, anchor baby.

Comment by ragerunner
2010-05-07 08:10:02

This is just strange. If I live in Japan and on the 4th of July I saw a Japanese student wearing a shirt that had the Japanese flag I would think nothing of it. I also wouldn’t think I had a right to tell the Japanese that their students had no right to do this, because its the Fourth of July.

 
Comment by yensoy
2010-05-07 08:38:12

Now might be a great time to get school kids to wear uniforms, as they do in the rest of the world. An American flag lapel pin might be a nice requirement as well.

 
Comment by Pondering the Mess
2010-05-07 09:30:45

Why, it’s almost like the illegals think that this is Mexico and not America!

Oh, wait - that’s what they WANT America to become!

 
 
Comment by SV guy
2010-05-07 06:59:36

My place in California is about 30 miles +\- north of Morgan Hill. MH is generally a very nice community. Unfortunately it lies within the political cesspool known as California.

This entire episode is beyond rediculous. “Disrespect”?

For those that may be unaware, there is a group called La Raza. Your newest Supreme Court justice was a member. It stands for “the race”. There is a hard core element within this group that wants to take the SouthWest back as it’s homeland.

When will white, primarily liberal, Americans stop being apologetic for some prior offense, real or imagined?

Let’s attach magnets to the feet of the founding fathers corpses. As they spin at breakneck speed we can use this as a new form of power generation.

Why does every sub-group want to have special rights? Whatever happened to just being American?

Comment by In Colorado
2010-05-07 07:48:17

Why does every sub-group want to have special rights?

Because they see all the other sub groups gaming the system and getting perks of their own.

 
Comment by llking
2010-05-07 10:10:05

morgan hill…i remember that place very well. I used to intern for South San Jose IBM on Blossom Hill blvd back in Spring 1987. I met some other students who used to rent a bedroom from some othe IBMers living up on Morgan Hill. Very nice place to live. I’m sure it has gone downhill by now.

I believe IBM has since sold it to Hitachi.

 
 
Comment by Va Beyatch in Norfolk
2010-05-07 07:40:55

Epic troll for the win :-)

 
Comment by Wolfie
2010-05-07 08:44:33

More evidence that two nations can’t coexist within one nation. Either we’re the USA or we’re Mexico. We can’t be both. Or we’re going to continue to have tension, stress and hostility.

Comment by CA renter
2010-05-08 04:14:25

Very true.

 
 
Comment by Gadfly
2010-05-07 13:10:44

“Talking of patriotism what humbug it is; it is a word which always commemorates a robbery. There isn’t a foot of land in the world which doesn’t represent the ousting and re-ousting of a long line of successive ‘owners,’ who each in turn, as ‘patriots,’ with proud swelling hearts defended it against the next gang of ‘robbers’ who came to steal it and did—and became swelling-hearted patriots in their turn.” –Mark Twain, Notebook

“La Raza” needs to form a line to the left and step aside for the Native Americans who came before them.

Comment by Carl Morris
2010-05-07 13:18:02

Is there a difference between La Raza and Native Americans other than which side of the current border they originated? Honestly curious…

 
 
Comment by james
2010-05-07 13:26:30

As I’ve said before… deportation and landmines… things will be fixed quite fast.

 
 
Comment by FB wants a do over
2010-05-07 04:20:25

Everyone gets a do over.

Nasdaq to Cancel All Trades of Stocks Moving More Than 60%
By Michael P. Regan

May 6 (Bloomberg) — Nasdaq OMX Group Inc. said it will cancel all trades of stocks at prices that were 60 percent above or below the last price at 2:40 p.m. or immediately prior.

Comment by denquiry
2010-05-07 08:36:22

IMO, they would have to cancel all trades. This smells. What if you were at 59%, 50%,…. What about the call/put options?

Comment by GrizzlyBear
2010-05-07 10:19:55

Yeah, what a joke.

 
 
Comment by Pondering the Mess
2010-05-07 09:32:56

Does this apply to Goldman and friends?

Somehow, I think I know the answer to that question…

 
 
Comment by Cantankerous Intellectual Bomb-thrower
2010-05-07 04:40:23

Should statements like this one be interpreted to mean the Fed might soon stop backstopping the housing market with implicit price supports? I still don’t understand why the Fed is meddling in the asset price support business, as according to their own rhetoric, asset prices have nothing to do with inflation. Hopefully that is a non-monetary policy question a Congressional audit could explore.

Friday May 7, 2010
Bullard Says Fed Can Sell Assets Before Policy Change (Update1)
May 06, 2010, 12:40 PM EDT

(Updates with Bullard comment in fifth paragraph.)

By Steve Matthews

May 6 (Bloomberg) — Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis President James Bullard said the central bank can start selling some mortgage-backed securities before it increases its key interest rate.

“One way to get started with balance sheet normalization is to very gradually start selling MBS securities,” Bullard said in response to reporters’ questions after a speech today in St. Louis. “We can do that before we feel we are ready to raise the federal funds rate.”

The Fed cut the benchmark interest rate almost to zero in December 2008 and turned to purchases of Treasury, housing agency and mortgage-backed securities as the main tool for monetary policy. Policy makers are now debating when to begin withdrawing record liquidity from the financial system as the economy emerges from the worst recession since the Great Depression.

Bullard called an asset sales approach a “last-in, first- out policy.”

“The first thing you would do is at least start to unwind that slowly,” Bullard said. The precise timing “should also depend on economic developments,” he said.

He said any increase in the discount rate on direct loans to banks should come “sooner rather than later so we can keep it separate from actually tightening broader monetary conditions.”

Comment by Hwy50ina49Dodge
2010-05-07 06:33:26

“…is to very gradually start selling MBS securities,”

Bungee-cord Theory = 1
Rope-around-the-Throat = 0

That’s just the way it’s gonna be Mr. Bear… ;-)

Comment by pressboardbox
2010-05-07 07:16:06

“…is to very gradually start selling MBS securities,”

I may be an idiot, but do you think there is any other way than “very gradually” to sell worthless crap pieces of paper?

No matter how or when they try to sell this crap, they will not be able to give it away.

Comment by denquiry
2010-05-07 08:38:21

No problem, GS and paulson can help out the fed here.

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Comment by Arizona Slim
2010-05-07 09:37:55

No matter how or when they try to sell this crap, they will not be able to give it away.

I’ve seen the same thing happen at yard sales. Shoppers deciding against buying the crap. Which ends up getting tossed in the trash or donated by those who were trying to sell it.

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Comment by pressboardbox
2010-05-07 11:30:54

I get it Slim, MBS are just like that ugly broken cheap plastic shoe rack at the yard sale with a twenty-five-cents sticker on it.

 
 
 
Comment by Pondering the Mess
2010-05-07 09:34:19

I assume this is part of the goal to bring back the Bubble somehow… Surely, there’s a pension fund somewhere that will enjoy some worthless MBS’s, right?

Comment by denquiry
2010-05-07 11:59:36

give calpers a call or harvard endowments a ringy dingy. In the past these 2 entities have been known to buy junk investments.

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Comment by ecofeco
2010-05-07 13:02:36

CA is going after 2 former CALPERS officials.

 
 
 
 
Comment by measton
2010-05-07 07:38:40

I think from the article the other day the FED will be selling to the treasury.

Treasury will issue money to GSE’s
GSE’s will purchase worthless paper from the FED.
TAx payers will take it in the A##

Comment by james
2010-05-07 11:33:47

Is there any way we can fight this? Should have people up in arms if the treasury is paying par for stuff that can’t be moved in debt markets. That is some kind of straight give away.

Comment by ecofeco
2010-05-07 13:04:04

Well first, we have to have a populace that is smarter than a fifth grader.

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Comment by Green Shoots
2010-05-07 04:44:00

I have this feeling that a great opportunity to buy the dip is coming up really soon. Stay tuned!
=========================================================
Equity selloff snowballs
Natsuko Waki
LONDON
Fri May 7, 2010 7:11am EDT

European Union Economic and Monetary Affairs Commissioner Olli Rehn displays a graphic during an eurozone finance ministers meeting on Greece at the EU Council in Brussels May 2, 2010.

Credit: Reuters/Francois Lenoir

LONDON (Reuters) - World stocks extended sharp falls on Friday while government bonds rose as a global rout triggered by fears of contagion from the euro zone debt crisis prompted investors to dump risky assets.

Sterling hit a one-year low against the dollar and tumbled against the euro after incomplete results of a UK general election suggested no party had emerged as a clear winner, raising the risk of a political stalemate that could hamper efforts to reduce the country’s huge public debt.

U.S. stocks fell as much as 9 percent in the last two hours of trading on Thursday before recovering slightly and the Dow suffered its biggest ever intraday point drop as a suspected trading glitch and euro debt fears threw markets into disarray.

Concerns Greece’s debt woes would spread into other parts of Europe are fanning risk aversion, with a lack of new anti-crisis measures from the European Central Bank on Thursday triggering a new wave of flight to safety. World stocks have erased all of this year’s gains to stand down 4 percent on the year.

“It is clear that the euro zone is in a very difficult situation and there is no quick fix,” said Tammo Greetfeld, equity strategist at UniCredit.

“It looks like foreign investors, particularly U.S. investors, yesterday for the first time significantly acknowledged that there are some risks emanating from the euro zone that could be severe.”

Related News

* Stocks routed, euro tumbles, gold soars
Thu, May 6 2010
* Euro tumbles broadly as Greece concerns escalate
Thu, May 6 2010
* FOREX-Euro tumbles broadly as Greece concerns escalate
Thu, May 6 2010
* FOREX-Euro tumbles to 14-month low after ECB stands pat
Thu, May 6 2010
* TREASURIES-Bonds rally as ECB fails to offer new measures
Thu, May 6 2010

Comment by combotechie
2010-05-07 05:44:39

“I have this feeling that a great opportunity to buy the dip is coming up really soon.”

Buy the dip? How about buy the canyon?

Allow me: I have this feeling that a great opportunity to buy the canyon is coming up real soon.

There. Much better.

Comment by Bill in Los Angeles
2010-05-07 06:54:13

I bought the canyon in steps both in 2002-2003 and 2007 through 2009. I’m still buying - mutual funds that is. My individual stocks have taken a beating, but my trailing stops have triggered well before yesterday’s fiasco.

Cynically, I am stubbornly sticking to the hope of gridlock with a Democrat President and Republican-controlled Congress elected this Fall. In that scenario, I hope B.O. gets re-elected in 2012.

My faves are EKOAX, KTCAX, RGAEX, REREX, DODFX, VEIEX, VFINX, OPPAX, PRASX, VISGX, and VPMAX. Balanced out by AAZAX, AAZBX, savings bonds, short term T-bills and precious metals bullion.

 
Comment by measton
2010-05-07 07:40:10

How about buy the black hole.
canyon seems like your sugar coating it.

Comment by measton
2010-05-07 08:35:10

you’re

need more coffee

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Comment by FB wants a do over
2010-05-07 06:14:32

“I have this feeling that a great opportunity to buy the dip is coming up really soon.”

Yesterday would have been a great opportunity to buy the dip.

Comment by In Montana
2010-05-07 09:30:51

well I was off only by a day, bought on Wednesday. :(

 
 
Comment by joeyinCalif
2010-05-07 07:32:50

..the euro zone is in a very difficult situation and there is no quick fix..

There’s a relatively quick fix.
Get rid of the European Monetary System and go back to sovereign currencies.
Imposing artificial debt limits works great until one or more countries runs into trouble, at which point those limits and countries become cement shoes..

It might be possible to eventually form a “United States of Europe” but it looks as though their chosen path was blocked by the housing bubble’s collapse.

Comment by Arizona Slim
2010-05-07 09:40:46

It might be possible to eventually form a “United States of Europe” but it looks as though their chosen path was blocked by the housing bubble’s collapse.

Yet another reason why bubble-based economies are a bad idea.

 
 
 
Comment by Professor Bear
2010-05-07 04:50:20

I thought the banking panic was over and recovery was here to stay. Who moved my green shoots?

My inner conspiracy theorist is impressed with the coincidental timing of this flare up in the international banking panic (including the largest-ever intraday drop in the DJIA) with consideration of the “Audit the Fed” measure in the U.S. Senate.

THE CONTAGION EFFECT
Greece’s debt crisis could spread across Europe
By Neil Irwin
Washington Post Staff Writer
Friday, May 7, 2010; 3:40 AM

MADRID — A third straight day of decline in world financial markets on Thursday was vivid evidence of a scary proposition: That the fiscal crisis that began in Greece months ago is spreading across Europe like a virus, causing growing doubt even about the fates of nations with far more manageable levels of government debt.

It is called the contagion effect, economists’ metaphor for the rapid and hard-to-predict spread of a financial crisis, and it’s driven by the fragility of investors’ perceptions. Contagion is a function of vicious cycles in which confidence in a country’s ability to repay its debts falls. If investors lose piles of money on the debt of one country, they assume that owning the debts of other countries with similar finances might cause them to lose even more. So they sell their investment in the second country, which in turn must pay higher and higher interest rates to get any loans, which adds to its debt and creates a fiscal death spiral that can well move on to the next country.

Spain is in the path of the storm and at the mercy of global investors, who are operating under the twin pressures of fear and greed. The country has less debt relative to the size of its economy compared with the United States or Britain, but contagion can threaten even countries that have managed their government debt responsibly if investors change their views about the country’s future deficits or ability to handle debt.

The odds of a full-blown sovereign debt crisis have risen significantly over the past two weeks and especially after the market turmoil Thursday, such that Europe in 2010 looks increasingly like East Asia in 1997 and 1998, when a currency devaluation in Thailand sparked a broad crisis in South Korea, Indonesia and elsewhere.

Once a panic starts and contagion is spreading, it often takes dramatic government action to reverse the tide — including external bailouts and steps to address the underlying cause of the crisis that are more aggressive than those needed in a non-panic situation.

In the case of Asia in the late 1990s, it took a wall of money from the International Monetary Fund and the United States to arrest the series of crises, combined with painful austerity measures in the nations involved. Banking panics have similar dynamics, and during the 2008-2009 financial crisis, the U.S. government stepped forward with the $700 billion Troubled Assets Relief Program, a series of unconventional lending efforts from the Federal Reserve, and stress tests for major banks that required many of them to raise more private capital.

Comment by Bill in Los Angeles
2010-05-07 07:05:41

This is why one should make precious metals 10% to 20% of his portfolio. I think the debt crisis of Greece is actually a good thing and the beginning of the end of deficit spending in developed countries. Portugal and Spain - you are next!

Spot price of gold has been sneaking up over the last few weeks. Yesterday’s blip in the market may have been a key entry error, but gold has been paying attention to the Greek crisis.

Comment by In Montana
2010-05-07 09:33:07

I have this nagging fear that if PM really did go outta sight, the feds would crack down on local exchanges to track cap gains..

 
 
Comment by Carl Morris
2010-05-07 08:56:00

It is called the contagion effect, economists’ metaphor for the rapid and hard-to-predict spread of a financial crisis, and it’s driven by the fragility of investors’ perceptions.

But the system wouldn’t be so dependent on investor’s perceptions if it were fundamentally strong. It’s disingenuous to blame it on the investors…and it diverts attention from the real problem, which is that the investors are right to be nervous.

Comment by CA renter
2010-05-08 04:21:36

Exactly.

 
 
Comment by CarrieAnn
2010-05-07 12:16:34

I was kind of wondering how they held the markets together until the last happy talk infused sucker jumped into the stampede of tax credit expiration buyers.

Just luck I’m sure.

 
 
Comment by palmetto
2010-05-07 05:18:52

That was a glitch on the stock market yesterday, yep, uh-huh.

Comment by arizonadude
2010-05-07 06:38:43

Someone had a fat finger they say.Sounds like bs to me as usual.Same old casino royale.

Comment by pressboardbox
2010-05-07 08:33:32

Fat-Finger Theory Shot Down in One Question:

Why has there never been a “fat-finger” UP movement?

Comment by Rental Watch
2010-05-07 09:24:33

Does it have something to do with the need to have the cash to buy, where shorting requires less cash collateral? Fat fingers would do less to drive prices up therefore than driving prices down.

Some commentator said that the plunge wouldn’t have happened yesterday if there was an uptick rule.

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Comment by CA renter
2010-05-08 04:24:43

That short position would have the same effect on the upside as on the downside.

A short seller needs to buy in order to close out their position.

Once again, they are blaming declines on short selling. Look for bans on short selling next, just like in 2008. They are trying to divert our attention from the real cause(s) of the crisis: the LONG positions that are so obviously weak, they induce short sellers to take positions against them.

 
 
 
 
 
Comment by 2banana
2010-05-07 05:20:17

Black Friday coming up????

World stocks slide on Dow collapse, debt crisis
AP | 5/7/10 | PAN PYLAS

World stocks slide on Dow collapse, debt crisis By PAN PYLAS (AP) – 1 hour ago LONDON — World markets fell sharply Friday following a huge sell-off on Wall Street and amid fears that Europe’s debt crisis could spread and derail the global economic recovery. In Britain, where investors were grappling with uncertain general election results, the FTSE 100 index was down 53.05 points, or 1 percent, at 5,207.94 following a slide in the pound. Germany’s DAX fell 71.80 points, or 1.2 percent

Across Asia, stocks were hit hard even though the government debt crisis is centered on Europe — all the main indexes ended lower with Taiwan, Indonesia, Thailand and New Zealand down sharply. China’s Shanghai Composite Index closed 1.9 percent lower while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index ended around 1.1 percent down.

ALSO in Greece today:

18.73% for 2 years
www dot bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=GGGB2YR%3AIND

14.8% a year for 5 years
www dot bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=GGGB5YR%3AIND

and 12.42% for 10 years bonds
www dot bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=GGGB10YR%3AIND

To compare: Germany pays at around 3% for 10 year

Comment by jess
2010-05-07 05:37:50

The price of beans & rice are still holding steady at the local Grocery .The way the funds are imploding , that may be revelant .

Comment by combotechie
2010-05-07 05:57:54

Anyone know of recipes that uses Alpo as the main ingredient?

Comment by denquiry
2010-05-07 08:42:05

free trade chili.

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Comment by MrBubble
2010-05-07 08:43:46

Ke gogi?

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Comment by Michael Fink
2010-05-07 08:50:54

Chicken nuggets?

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Comment by CentralCoastDude
2010-05-07 11:12:01

A double cheeseburger at Burger King is cheaper than Alpo and you can live in your car at the same time. You can feed yourself in America for less than you can in Ecuador it seems sometimes. You may die of heart disease, but you wont go hungry.

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Comment by RioAmericanInBrasil
2010-05-07 11:33:48

You can feed yourself in America for less than you can in Ecuador it seems sometimes.

Fast food is cheaper in the USA than in Rio too. McDonalds here is about 60% more expensive. (I’ve seen the menu while walking by)

As far as American brands, they have Subway, McDonalds, Dominos, and KFC. I’ve been to KFC a few times. Most Brazilians request the black beans and rice as sides. I like their coleslaw.

Believe it or not the only one I wished they really had was Taco Bell because sometimes ANY Mexican food would do. There are only 2 Mexican restaurants here and are expensive. One is a combo all you can eat Mexican and Japanese/Sushi called Mizu. I know, it’s a crazy combination.

If you go to places the working-class locals go, the prices are OK. Yesterday I had Oxtail stew, rice, beans and a salad for $5.50. and 50 cents for coffee.

 
Comment by james
2010-05-07 13:33:55

Can you not be such a disgusting anti-bible thumping liberal and perhaps admit that you potentially at some chicken nuggets.

I’m getting the urge to watch that Quagmire tells off Brian the dog clip again.

Could you google that and watch it on hulu. Imagine that’s us. OK.

Can’t admit that you might have taken you neice to McDonalds or something. Do you think Exeter and Eco were going to kick you out of the club?

 
Comment by RioAmericanInBrasil
2010-05-07 14:40:27

Can’t admit that you might have taken you neice to McDonalds or something.

No way Dude! I don’t like McDonalds but only because I love good hamburgers. (with tomatoes)

OK, here’s the dea now that I think about it. I was coming home in a taxi about a year ago at about 4 am after a party. Bob’s (the good Rio hamburger place was closed and the only place open around there was McDonalds.

Ok, I had a big mac or something but that doesn’t count at 4 am. Oh yea, breakfasts at airports don’t count either.

I don’t know if I’ve ever had a chicken McNugget because I like chicken.

 
 
Comment by Gadfly
2010-05-07 13:18:48

I draw the line at roadkill and rendered pets.

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Comment by nycjoe
2010-05-07 05:58:01

How much is a 2-week Greek bond? I might go for that.

Comment by pressboardbox
2010-05-07 09:32:47

Greek bonds are best when lightly tossed with a sprinkling of oil and vinegar for a cheap low-calorie lunch. Possible side effects include indigestion, indigence, nausea, vomiting, ink-poisoning, and mass rioting. Ask your doctor if Greek bonds are right for you.

 
 
Comment by Green Shoots
2010-05-07 06:56:00

“18.73% for 2 years”

Is there any way for American investors to lock in a 2-year 18.73% return in Euro-denominated Greek bonds, with a bailout on the way to make sure they pay off? This sounds like a great opportunity for anyone positioned to exploit it.

Comment by nycjoe
2010-05-07 07:30:17

Not sure even bailout fan Krugman would make that bet:

What remains seems unthinkable: Greece leaving the euro. But when you’ve ruled out everything else, that’s what’s left.

If it happens, it will play something like Argentina in 2001, which had a supposedly permanent, unbreakable peg to the dollar. Ending that peg was considered unthinkable for the same reasons leaving the euro seems impossible: even suggesting the possibility would risk crippling bank runs. But the bank runs happened anyway, and the Argentine government imposed emergency restrictions on withdrawals. This left the door open for devaluation, and Argentina eventually walked through that door.

Comment by Pondering the Mess
2010-05-07 09:39:47

Good thing that can’t happen here… right? Right?

*crickets*

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Comment by Prime_Is_Contained
2010-05-07 09:55:50

Actually, it can’t. This can only happen in a country that issues debt in a currency that it cannot print at will.

 
 
 
Comment by measton
2010-05-07 07:42:50

Green Shoots

Measton bonds are paying 40%
Just mail me the cash.

Comment by Professor Bear
2010-05-07 07:56:19

Are you anticipating bailouts to help you make payments in case you find yourself running a bit short?

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Comment by measton
2010-05-07 08:33:56

Measton bonds have no risk of default and are backed by Measton insurance and dare i say it the gov. Just mail the cash and get rich.

 
Comment by Carl Morris
2010-05-07 08:37:56

Ooh, they’re insured? Where do I sign? Anybody that doesn’t to this is an idiot.

 
Comment by FB wants a do over
2010-05-07 09:47:24

Rumor has it the Measton bonds are rated AAA by the rating agencies.

 
 
 
 
 
Comment by Ol'Bubba
2010-05-07 05:24:56

Yesterday I checked a book out of my library titled, “More Mortgage Meltdown” written by Whitney Tilson and Glenn Tongue. The book was published in 2009.

Have any of you read this book? I’ll post some comments after I read the book.

Comment by CA renter
2010-05-08 04:28:23

Looking forward to your comments about the book, Ol’ Bubba.

 
 
Comment by jeff saturday
2010-05-07 05:26:04

Looking good.

Exit poll points to hung parliament in British election+ Breitbart 2010-05-07
LONDON, May 7 (AP) - (Kyodo)—Britain could be heading for a hung parliament on Friday, with the Conservatives led by David Cameron looking likely to be the biggest party but falling short of a governing majority, according to an exit poll during voting in Thursday’s general election. The poll conducted for the BBC, Sky and ITV broadcasting networks covered 18,000 voters in over 100…

The good old days. 1929 and 1974

By Richard Martin
The last time Britain saw a hung parliament was in 1974 [GALLO/GETTY]

The phrase “hung parliament” has seldom been used in British politics. It doesn’t happen very often.

It’s common enough in countries with proportional representation voting systems, like Germany or Italy.

But the last time Britain saw a hung parliament was in 1974 – 36 years ago. Before that, the only hung parliament was after the election of 1929.

This year though, the prospect of a hung parliament is looming large. Some believe voters will decide that neither leading party – or party leader – deserves all the power.

 
Comment by wmbz
2010-05-07 05:37:06

Frugality among consumers is outliving recession
A new frugality among consumers whose wealth has shrunk is outliving the recession ~ AP News

Even as the economic recovery plods ahead, many American consumers are refusing to come along.

They’re not spending freely — and they have no plans to.

Many of them have steady income. They aren’t saddled by high debts. They don’t fear losing their jobs. Yet despite recent gains, they’ve lost so much household wealth that they’re far more cautious about spending than before the recession.

Their behavior suggests that the Great Recession may have bred a new frugality that will endure well into the recovery. And because consumers fuel about 70 percent of the economy, their tightfisted habits means the rebound could stay unusually sluggish.

That’s the picture that emerges from an Associated Press survey of leading economists and interviews with more than two dozen ordinary Americans. The new AP Economy Survey asked 44 leading economists whether the recession created a “new frugality” among consumers that will outlive the recession. Two-thirds said yes.

http://wire.antiwar.com/2010/05/02/frugality-among-consumers-is-outliving-recession/

Comment by Carl Morris
2010-05-07 08:57:41

Frugality among consumers is outliving recession

Like anyone things the recession is dead yet. See Left Ohio’s post below…

Comment by Pondering the Mess
2010-05-07 09:41:58

But the Fed and the Prophet of Change have said that all is well!

Surely, one can trust our dearly elected idiots from both parties!

 
 
Comment by ecofeco
2010-05-07 13:10:24

The recession is over? When did this happen?

 
 
Comment by wmbz
2010-05-07 05:52:43

“It would be disastrous to risk a member of the European currency union, Greece, becoming insolvent.”

~ Wolfgang Schäuble

 
Comment by packman
2010-05-07 06:22:20

So on Monday Obama proposed ANOTHER $100 Billion to the IMF, for its NAB program. Link to follow.

Don’t forget that we were put on the hook for a $100 Billion just three weeks ago by a tenfold expansion in the NAB. It appears this is in addition to that, from what I can tell.

At what point do his actions go from being disastrous to being treasonous?

Comment by packman
2010-05-07 06:25:40

link

Obama proposes $100 billion U.S. loan for IMF

(Reuters) - President Barack Obama on Monday proposed a $100 billion U.S. loan to the International Monetary Fund to boost the IMF’s resources and urged a bigger stake in the IMF for emerging powers.

Actually after looking at it more - it appears this $100B may actually be the same one mentioned three weeks ago. The sequence of this seems odd - the IMF board approved the expansion before Obama even proposed our contribution to Congress.

 
Comment by nycjoe
2010-05-07 06:37:07

Let’s say, in a crazy fantasy scenario, that a couple of nations under pressure decide to stop lighting up their scarce resources in a bonfire out on the street: We pull out of the IMF and Germany pulls out of the euro. That might get interesting.

Comment by combotechie
2010-05-07 06:41:45

“That might get interesting.”

Interesting in that a “saviour” may come to the rescue.

 
 
Comment by wmbz
2010-05-07 06:56:24

Man you can’t be saying anything negative about Barry. He’s “clean and articulate” sez Plugs Biden. “He doesn’t speak in a negro dialect unless he wants to” sez Whispering Harry Reid.

Besides he’s the perfect tool for wall street, he thinks he’s in control and the banksters are loving it.

 
Comment by eudemon
2010-05-07 07:01:17

It Takes A Village.

 
Comment by pressboardbox
2010-05-07 07:23:27

Its not HIS money, what does he care?

Comment by 2banana
2010-05-07 08:24:55

You telling me there is NO obama stash?

Comment by denquiry
2010-05-07 08:44:28

well no…not in cash anyways. the other kind silly.

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Comment by neuromance
2010-05-07 20:10:49

Some time ago, in Maryland, a local politician came up with quite a zinger, during a debate. He said, “There is only one thing my opponent and I have in common - I like to spend my money and HE likes to spend my money.”

:)

 
 
 
Comment by WT Economist
2010-05-07 06:32:48

I have news for you “audit the Fed” folks. The Fed is already audited — except for monetary policy.

What is proposed is having the Congress oversee the Fed’s monetary policy, with the implicit power to force changes.

What would a Congress consisting of Republicans who want ever more tax cuts for the wealthy and investors, Republicans and Democrats who insist on no benefit reductions (or slowing of Medicare benefit increases), an Democrats who don’t want to cut benefits for tomorrow’s seniors, want the Fed to do.

Monetize the debt. If you are in favor of the audit, you are in favor of monetizing the debt. Doesn’t make it wrong, given the fix we are in, just understand that.

Comment by Hwy50ina49Dodge
2010-05-07 06:38:02

B.I.N.G.O. / B.I.N.G.O. / B.I.N.G.O. Bingo was his name-o ;-)

Comment by Hwy50ina49Dodge
2010-05-07 06:51:46

Monetizing the Debt - Explanation For Non-Economists, Bankers and Other Laymen
Friday, May 08, 2009

There’s more, this is just the 2nd paragraph: ;-)

1. An economy in shatters that cannot produce enough taxes for the state

2. A parliament/congress/senate full of incompetent politicians eager to continue showering their constituencies with pork regardless of a nation’s declining tax income

3. A people that has never received any macroeconomic education in their schools (otherwise they’d be shouldering the pitchforks by now)

4. A central bank with a transaction computer running under Unix (Windows would probably crash before any real economic damage could be done)

5. Commercial banks with executives searching the web for an easily understood explanation of the said term and no idea about monetary inflation either, but a perfect understanding of their contracts sweetened with lavish bonuses, no matter whether they remain prudent or crash the cart against the wall.

Now that we got our most important players together (starving retirees, widows and kids will only appear on the scene after the monetizing-the-debt-party has sunk the world into a depression) we take a punch bowl (literal), fill it with cheap credit and pass it around to everybody except the central bank computer (it has to work hard very soon.)

In contrast to all commodities unbacked fiat money is created at virtually no cost. This is most comfortable as it means the central bank computer can keep the party going.

All that needs to be done are a few keystrokes (maybe they already have macros for the task) and a screen wide enough to accommodate the ever growing number of zeroes after the $/€ sign…

http://prudentinvestor.blogspot.com/2009/05/monetizing-debt-explanation-for-non.html

Comment by measton
2010-05-07 07:46:45

In addition to taking care of our debt problem it might help are trade imbalance. It will crush the middle class and It will hurt me of course as I’m all cash.

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Comment by measton
2010-05-07 12:36:36

It might help our trade

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Comment by wmbz
2010-05-07 06:50:14

I have news for you “audit the Fed” folks. The Fed is already audited.

Who does the auditing? Is it an internal audit?

 
Comment by Green Shoots
2010-05-07 06:57:57

“What is proposed is having the Congress oversee the Fed’s monetary policy, with the implicit power to force changes.”

Unless I missed something, this is exactly what the Senate scrapped yesterday in the Fed audit proposal.

 
Comment by packman
2010-05-07 07:27:40

Given the choice between:

A) No oversight of Fed monetary policy
B) Corporate bank oversight of Fed monetary policy
C) Congressional oversight of Fed monetary policy
D) Executive oversight of Fed monetary policy

I’ll take C any day of the week, and twice on Sunday. I’m not a big-government fan, but I’d much rather have big voted-in government (Congress) instead of big shadow not-voted-in government (Federal Reserve).

Comment by measton
2010-05-07 07:48:33

A one time audit is not oversight.
The FED has obviously overstepped their mandate, and the American people have the right to know who benefited from this free money operation.

Comment by packman
2010-05-07 07:56:04

Agree. The one time audit though is the post-watered down version unfortunately, after the initial version was rejected.

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Comment by Pondering the Mess
2010-05-07 09:45:57

Hey, maybe they’ll hire some financial geniuses, like Goldman and their pals, to conduct the audit! That way, we all can have faith in the quality of the free pass the Fed will be given.

 
Comment by CA renter
2010-05-08 04:34:02

Ooooh, you’re a genius, Pondering! ;)

 
 
Comment by FB wants a do over
2010-05-07 09:54:56

If they find something, then the one time audit opens the door to oversight.

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Comment by WT Economist
2010-05-07 09:55:04

I’m telling you, political pressure to monetize the debt is where this is going. We aren’t there yet because things aren’t bad enough to make Congress desperate yet. But when we get there…

From a year ago.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB123750959910890623.html

“It’s important to understand the historic nature of what the Fed is doing. In buying $300 billion worth of long-end Treasurys, it is directly monetizing U.S. government debt. This is what the Federal Reserve did during World War II to finance U.S. government borrowing, before the Fed broke the pattern in a very public spat with the Truman Administration during the Korean War. Now the Bernanke Fed is once again making itself a debt agent of the Treasury, using its balance sheet to finance Congressional spending.”

Now what happens if the Fed feels the need to cut back its purchases to prevent a currency collapse at a time that Congress is facing huge tax increases or running out of money for the seniors?

“The Treasury and Congress won’t be happy if the Fed decides to stop buying Treasurys and the result is a big increase in government borrowing costs. This was the source of the dispute between the Federal Reserve and the Truman Treasury.”

That may not be Ron Paul’s agenda, but when our big fat Greek crisis hits, he won’t be calling the shots.

 
 
Comment by Left Ohio
2010-05-07 06:45:26

From today’s Denver Post:

Most consumers don’t think recession is over

Consumers remain nervous about the economy, with more than three-fourths believing the U.S. is still mired in a recession, according to surveys and retail reports released Thursday.

“Nobody has told American consumers that the recession is over, although some officials have rosy predictions of growing consumer spending”

denverpost DOT com/ci_15035277

Comment by ecofeco
2010-05-07 13:16:00

“…with more than three-fourths believing the U.S. is still mired in a recession…”

Is that like believing the world isn’t flat? In the 16th century?

 
 
Comment by wmbz
2010-05-07 06:58:05

April Payrolls Rise the Most in 4 Years; Unemployment Hits 9.9%- AP

Employers stepped up job creation in April, expanding payrolls by 290,000, the most in four years. The jobless rate rose to 9.9 percent as people streamed back into the market looking for work.

Comment by ecofeco
2010-05-07 13:18:28

Let me see if I have this right: employment rose and so did unemployment.

Yep, we’re fooked.

 
 
Comment by wmbz
2010-05-07 07:06:01

German Lawmakers Approve Greek Rescue
nytimes May 7, 2010

German lawmakers on Friday approved the country’s share of the rescue package for debt-laden Greece after a boisterous debate in which the finance minister told them they had no alternative to the unpopular measure, The Associated Press reported.

The lower house of Parliament voted 390-72, with 139 abstentions, to authorize granting as much as 22.4 billion euros ($28.6 billion) in credit over three years. That is part of a wider 110 billion euro package backed by eurozone members and the International Monetary Fund.

Chancellor Angela Merkel’s center-right governing coalition was joined by one of the three opposition parties in approving the aid. Germans dislike the idea of rescuing another country from its financial irresponsibility.

The upper house of parliament, which represents Germany’s 16 states where Merkel’s government also has a majority, was expected to add its approval later Friday.

Comment by joeyinCalif
2010-05-07 07:37:17

Germans dislike the idea of rescuing another country from its financial irresponsibility.

..the EU’s epitaph.

Comment by pressboardbox
2010-05-07 09:13:01

does anyone?

Comment by joeyinCalif
2010-05-07 11:35:57

nope.. but the rules of the European Monetary union assumes partner countries will stand by and support each other in times of trouble. Of course, those rules were drawn up before there was any actual trouble.

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Comment by Pondering the Mess
2010-05-07 09:49:04

Oh, don’t worry - the Germans have about as much say over where their money goes as we do.

Remember that whole 95% of the population being against our first Bailout in fall of 2008, and it passsed anyway with no consequences for those who passed it? Yep… it’s a lot easier to loot once the population no longer is a factor!

Comment by joeyinCalif
2010-05-07 10:55:29

…bailing ourselves out its not the same thing..

This Greek/German bailout is like us being forced to give hundreds of billions of dollars to some spend-thrift foreign country with a different language and different political philosophy, on top of their being an economic competitor… while just about the only thing we have in common is the dollar.

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Comment by Carl Morris
2010-05-07 12:29:46

Like California?

 
Comment by joeyinCalif
2010-05-07 13:22:17

… maybe like San Francisco.

 
 
Comment by pressboardbox
2010-05-07 10:57:32

Why are the Greeks prostesting and rioting when it should be the Germans who are upset?

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Comment by Green Shoots
2010-05-07 07:14:22

The Citi people are predicting stocks are going to soon go on sale for 20% off. Don’t be caught on the sidelines holding your liquidity under the mattress when this weekend shopper special comes into play.
=========================================================
May 7, 2010, 8:51 a.m. EDT

Citi sees up to 20% correction over Greece
Strategists say investors should avoid a fire sale, caution on euro weakness

By Barbara Kollmeyer, MarketWatch

MADRID (MarketWatch) — Just hours after one of the most bruising sessions for Wall Street, strategists in Europe on Friday painted a poor outlook for rebound prospects in the near term.

Citigroup got things off to a bearish start with a prediction that fears of sovereign debt contagion over Greece could trigger a near-term correction of up to 20%.

They said that while there have been financial crises with international implications in the recent past — Northern Europe in 1992, Southeast Asia and South Korea in 1997 — the Greek crisis is “graver than these were.”

Global stock markets have perhaps rallied too far, too fast since the March low of 2009 to the April 2010 high, Tsutomu Fujita, an analyst at Citi, commented.

“With global equities having rallied 79.9% in a scant 13 months through April, we feel it would be only natural to go through a correction of around 10% or 20% over two or three months,” Fujita wrote in a research note.

From the April high to the May 6 low, Japanese stocks are down 4.2%, the U.S. has dropped 7.6%, and Europe has fallen 9.5%.

While Fujita said global stocks should resume their “upward trajectory in June,” the period in between could be dicey.

Comment by Green Shoots
2010-05-07 07:31:07

How many fat fingered traders are there on Wall Street?

 
 
Comment by Green Shoots
2010-05-07 07:19:31

What’s up with the oil price? Is Gollum backing away from its oil price support role? Maybe reasonable fuel prices are in the future outlook?

Comment by packman
2010-05-07 07:40:04

Maybe people are finally realizing that oil actually is a commodity and not a currency? Thus the divergent directions of oil vs. gold lately.

It’s probably actually driven by China’s current credit tightening; expectations that their rapid ramp up of oil use will slow over the next few years.

 
Comment by Hwy50ina49Dodge
2010-05-07 08:54:58

Their facilities run-overeth ;-)

GoldenmanSucks = “TrueDeceiver’s™” / “TrueOilStorage™”

GoldenmanSucks Inc. (SCOTUS person) = “TrueFinancialCult™” / “TrueSerialLiquiditist™”

 
 
Comment by wmbz
2010-05-07 07:43:06

Bank Risk Soars to Record, Default Swaps Overtake Lehman Crisis

May 7 (Bloomberg) — The cost of insuring against losses on European bank bonds soared to a record, surpassing levels triggered by the collapse of Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc., as the sovereign debt crisis deepened.

The Markit iTraxx Financial Index of credit-default swaps on 25 banks and insurers soared as much as 40 basis points to 223, according to JPMorgan Chase & Co. The index closed at 212 basis points March 9, 2009. Swaps on Greece, Portugal, Spain and Italy rose to or near all-time high levels.

Credit risk rose for a sixth day on concern the Greek debt crisis is spiraling out of control and triggering concern banks may face losses on their sovereign bond holdings. The Group of Seven plans to hold a conference call today to discuss the turmoil, after a global stock rout that briefly erased more than $1 trillion in U.S. market value.

Comment by joeyinCalif
2010-05-07 08:06:08

It’s too late to short EU debt, but there are plenty of countries heading in the same direction.
Pick one with currently unaffordable RE prices, and which is popularly believed to be immune to a decline. Canada? Australia?

Comment by Pondering the Mess
2010-05-07 09:51:41

Sadly, most of America would still fall into this catagory.

I wish we could short individual states… anywhere still in the Denial phase would be a great target!

 
 
 
Comment by Green Shoots
2010-05-07 07:47:24

Why are these gloomsters setting their sites so low by predicting the Dow will only make it up to 12,000? Haven’t they ever read Dow 36,000: The New Strategy for Profiting From the Coming Rise in the Stock Market? Used copies can be found on Amazon dot com for as little as $0.01 (hard cover edition).
==========================================================
Why The DJIA Will Renew Its Assault On 12,000
Posted: May 6, 2010 at 7:12 pm
24/7 Wall St Real Time 500

The DJIA will once again begin its move toward 12,000 after the market collapse of the last several days. The quick drop of almost 1,000 points on May 6 seems to have been due to a trading or software anomaly. A look at the market before and after the incident confirms that the index was moving toward a 300 point drop during most of the two hours of trading expect for the frightening and brief disruption. The correction of the last five days has brought the DJIA down about 1,000 points, or 9%.

There are very few reasons for the market to stay down and many of reasons for it to advance.

Some pessimists about the long position of the market argue that it had no business moving from 6,700 early last March to over 11,200 a few days ago. Under normal circumstances, that would be a fair assertion. but the US economy has emerged from the worst recession in eight decades and reasonable GDP growth has begun. The talk of a double dip recession, still fairly loud 60 days ago has nearly ceased.

Comment by Pondering the Mess
2010-05-07 09:56:05

Indeed!

All is well! Print, print, print more money!!!

Buy stocks now, or be priced out forever!

Yeah, I recall not long before the market started its fall from the 14,000 height some numbnut on a financial website prattling about how the down would be well above 20,000 in a year and how stocks only go up, etc. Good thing he didn’t let facts get in the way of his prediction; the sad part is that he’s probably still employed in a role of financial advisor despite clearly being unqualified for the job.

 
Comment by SDGreg
2010-05-07 11:43:29

“The talk of a double dip recession, still fairly loud 60 days ago has nearly ceased.”

Especially among the perma-bulls. But when one looks at all the things that have popped up in the past couple of months (Iceland volcano with impact on travel and trade, BP oil spill with very large potential impacts) and simmering issues which have risen to the forefront such as the Greek debt crisis, there are more reasons to be less bullish in the near term than might have been the case even a couple of months ago.

Those that have recently backed away from the double dip recession scenario may be reassessing that possibility which appears more possible given some of the recent large shocks. Maybe not imminent, but more likely in the relatively near future - several months out.

Comment by ecofeco
2010-05-07 13:21:44

I wouldn’t talk about a double dip recession either if I’d just gotten my million dollar bonus.

Duh.

 
 
 
Comment by michael
2010-05-07 07:49:55

looks like the stock market is glitching again today.

Comment by Professor Bear
2010-05-07 07:53:48

MarketWatch Headline:

“Friday-morning losses put major U.S. stock indexes in the red for 2010″

Comment by pressboardbox
2010-05-07 08:48:06

If “they” can’t close it higher today, its all over.

Comment by sfbubblebuyer
2010-05-07 09:21:00

It’s already back in the green.

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Comment by sfbubblebuyer
2010-05-07 09:44:00

Oh, back in the red!

OH NOES!

 
 
 
 
Comment by mrktMaven FL
2010-05-07 08:13:14

It’s not everyday you see a country go to the wall and watch a currency tumble as a result.

 
 
Comment by potential buyer
2010-05-07 08:14:23

“Payrolls surged with an unexpectedly strong 290,000 jobs last month, the Labor Department reported on Friday, while the unemployment rate rose to 9.9 percent.”

Well, say no more.

Comment by ecofeco
2010-05-07 13:22:46

Doubleplus good!

 
 
Comment by pressboardbox
2010-05-07 08:28:34

PPT Blows Gasket, Market Tanks

Today on CNBC Steve Lieseman said that he was at a meeting with Geithner when the market dropped 998 Dow points yesterday. TTT glanced at his blackberry and stated “That can’t be right” just before he excused himself and left. How did he know “that can’t be right”? Because he knows the PPT would never allow that to happen. The PPT (which I am sure has had its little hands full recently with the Greek-debt stuff) obviously had a temporary problem with their “system” yesterday which probably scared the hell out of Bernanke/Geithner/Obama and any other “insiders” of the whole scam that we refer to as our FInancial System. Remember folks, anything man-made is prone to eventual failure: i.e. Tianic (first “unsinkable” ocean-liner), Hindenburg (world’s safest air travel), Space Shuttle (they blow-up occasionally), Deepwater Horizon…

Comment by joeyinCalif
2010-05-07 08:57:24

..anything man-made is prone to eventual failure

A sound conspiracy theory is fluid enough that it need never fail.

 
Comment by measton
2010-05-07 09:29:19

My tinfoil hat theory is differnt.
The Banks have a lot of Treasuries now.
Everything the FED and Treasury do is for the Banks.
Crash the market, pump more money into the Banks. Goldman and the favored Wall Street Firms will have shorted the market heavily as well.

Comment by measton
2010-05-07 09:34:11

Oops a new theory

German lawmakers on Friday approved the country’s share of the rescue package for debt-laden Greece after a boisterous debate in which the finance minister told them they had no alternative to the unpopular measure, The Associated Press .

How about a Greek Bond update.

 
 
Comment by Kim
2010-05-07 10:42:15

“How did he know “that can’t be right”?”

I was watching my trading screen as it was happening, and that was my first thought as well!

Comment by pressboardbox
2010-05-07 11:35:00

Well, Timmay knew that it was impossible. His tricky double-heads coin had come up tails! You just were in disbelief. There is a difference.

Comment by Cantankerous Intellectual Bomb-thrower
2010-05-07 16:08:08
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Comment by measton
2010-05-07 08:31:08

NEW YORK (Reuters) – New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg on Thursday unveiled his revised $63 billion budget plan for fiscal 2011, which includes shedding 11,000 public employees through layoffs and attrition.

The mayor, an independent, repeatedly blamed the city’s problems on the state, saying Governor David Paterson’s $135 billion budget plan could take $1.3 billion from the city — though the state gets half of its money from the city.

coming to a city county and state near you.

Comment by pressboardbox
2010-05-07 08:46:51

My Big Fat Fingered Greek Bailout - in 3D!

Showing now at a theater near you!

A Michael Bloomberg production.

Starring:

Tiger Woods as President Obama
Tom Cruise as Turbo Tax TImmy
Johnny Knoxville as Times Square bomber
Joan Rivers as Nancy Pelosi
Jim Cramer as Ben Bernanke
Lloyd Blankfein as Himself

 
 
Comment by pressboardbox
Comment by bink
2010-05-07 10:39:48

That second link is a laugh riot.

 
 
Comment by Hwy50ina49Dodge
2010-05-07 09:04:20

BWAHAHHAHAHAHHAHAHHAHHAHAHAHHHHHHHHHHHHH!!! (fpss™)

Anne D’Innocenzio, AP Business Writer, On Friday May 7, 2010 AP

GoldenmanSucks creating committee to review its practices:

GoldenmanSucks CEO says bank is creating a business standards committee to review its practices

Our Goal: “Becoming a “TruePurity™” / “TruePatriot™” American Corporation.”

Comment by Hwy50ina49Dodge
2010-05-07 09:07:36

I nominate Mr. Cantankerous Intellectual Bomb-thrower for representing the HBB (SCOTUS person) to be on the committee. ;-)

Comment by Hwy50ina49Dodge
2010-05-07 09:09:01

“We need a rigorous self-examination,” Blankfein told investors at the company’s annual meeting. “Our firm must review our core principles.”

He noted there is a disconnect between how the company views itself and how outsiders see Goldman Sachs Group Inc.

The committee, which will report to the Goldman board of directors, will review both services and products that Goldman offers, Blankfein said.

:-)

Comment by measton
2010-05-07 09:23:30

Kind of like how pedophilic priests think they are doing God’s work and how the public views it.

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Comment by Pondering the Mess
2010-05-07 10:03:38

So, if they can’t see that they are sociopaths, while the rest of the world sees it, clearly the rest of the world is wrong.

Sure… whatever… I’m sure some managers will get a nice bonus for thinking of this great idea!

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Comment by SDGreg
2010-05-07 11:32:31

“GoldenmanSucks CEO says bank is creating a business standards committee to review its practices”

I’d feel much more satisfied if they were convening such a meeting while incarcerated. I usually favor shorter meetings, but in that case one that went on for years or decades would be better.

 
 
Comment by measton
2010-05-07 09:21:17

MOSCOW – The pirates seized by a Russian warship off the coast of Somalia have been released because of “imperfections” in international law, the Defense Ministry said Friday, a claim that sparked skepticism — and even suspicion the pirates might have been killed.

I wonder if this technique could be applied to American Pirates?

 
Comment by Hwy50ina49Dodge
2010-05-07 11:27:43

“The pirates seized by a Russian warship off the coast of Somalia have been released”

Knowing the Ruskie’s MO that’s just nuts,…or “nutless” might be more accurate to describe the pirates,… post their release. ;-)

Comment by Kim
2010-05-07 13:07:56

Perhaps by “released” the Russians meant “thrown overboard and are now free to swim home”.

 
 
Comment by SDGreg
2010-05-07 11:29:31

Maybe a closed hearing with GS or BP executives who go in but never come out?

 
 
Comment by wmbz
2010-05-07 10:02:57

Barry sez… “The regulatory agencies are looking into what happen on wall street and will make sure nothing like that ever happens again”.

Comment by nickpapageorgio
2010-05-07 19:47:22

Whew! I was beginning to get nervous.

 
 
Comment by wmbz
2010-05-07 10:07:00

High-End Homeowners Falling Into Foreclosure Trap
7 May 2010 | CNBC News

Heated pools, ocean views and media rooms are not what most people would expect to find in a foreclosed property, but more high-end homes—priced over a million dollars—have been falling into the hands of banks this year.

Foreclosures of homes worth over $1 million began increasing at the end of 2009, according to exclusive data provided by foreclosure tracking website RealtyTrac. Foreclosures reached a high in February 2010, the last month data is available, when 4,169 homes were somewhere in the foreclosure process; either having received a foreclosure notice, had an auction scheduled or the lender took ownership of the property. That’s a 121 percent increase from a year ago.

The deterioration comes just as housing experts say that foreclosures in the low- and mid- ends of the housing market are showing signs of stabilization.

“They were able to stave off foreclosure longer,” says independent real estate analyst Jack McCabe, CEO of McCabe Research and Consulting in South Florida. “Lower-end homeowners were the first ones to see the escalating foreclosures because they generally do not have the cash reserves or credit available that the luxury homeowners do. They had the ability to take their credit cards and pull out thousands of dollars while the lower end buyers were already tapped out.”

Comment by Cantankerous Intellectual Bomb-thrower
2010-05-07 10:12:05

I am very curious how so many “high end” (aka “wealthy”) home owners managed to mortgage themselves into massive home equity losses?

 
 
Comment by wmbz
2010-05-07 10:19:30

Global warming fears seen in obsessive compulsive disorder patients.
AUCKLAND, New Zealand ~ Psychiatry Congress

A recent study has found that global warming has impacted the nature of symptoms experienced by obsessive compulsive disorder patients. Climate change related obsessions and/or compulsions were identified in 28% of patients presenting with obsessive compulsive disorder. Their obsessions included leaving taps on and wasting water, leaving lights on and wasting electricity, pets dying of thirst, leaving the stove on and wasting gas as well as obsessions that global warming had contributed to house floors cracking, pipes leaking, roof problems and white ants eating the house. Compulsions in response to these obsessions included the checking of taps, light switches, pet water bowls and house structures.

“Media coverage about the possible catastrophic consequences to our planet concerning global warming is extensive and potentially anxiety provoking. We found that many obsessive compulsive disorder patients were concerned about reducing their global footprint,” said study author Dr Mairwen Jones.

Comment by Chris M
2010-05-07 12:06:03

I’m no global warmist, but is it really wrong to be a little obsessive about leaving the stove on? And what kind of normal person leaves the taps running for no reason? They’d probably call me OCD, but it’s more out of concern for my water/gas/electric bill than anything else. My worst OCD behavior was checking if the garage door was open. I solved that with a little wireless indicator that I can glance at every 5 minutes. Soothe that neurosis! :)

 
Comment by MrBubble
2010-05-07 12:22:49

Nothing to do with housing or the economy. Move along, please.

 
 
Comment by michael
2010-05-07 10:23:34

a little trip down memory lane.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GkAtUq0OJ68

Comment by pressboardbox
2010-05-07 11:00:04

So glad we are now getting the change we need.

Comment by ecofeco
2010-05-07 14:42:18

Ch-ch-ch-ch-Changes
(Turn and face the strange)
Ch-ch-Changes
Don’t want to be a richer man
Ch-ch-ch-ch-Changes
(Turn and face the strange)
Ch-ch-Changes
Just gonna have to be a different man
Time may change me
But I can’t change time

 
 
 
Comment by wmbz
2010-05-07 10:40:12

In a nutshell, Greece borrowed way too much money, and does not want to drive old cars and eat rice and beans for years to pay it back. That’s why you are seeing riots in Athens. The problem with Greece is it cannot print money like the United States. Its debts cannot be simply inflated away. Bills have to be paid with big cuts to pensions and social programs, and it is not going over well. That brings us to the other option, and that is to simply not pay the money back and default.

There is one other option, print money and bail out Greece. Here’s how investment guru Monty Guild sums up the bailout scenario: “This is happening because if Europe does not support Greece, the government debt contagion that we have been discussing in recent memos will continue and spread. It will spread to Spain and Portugal and later to many countries in Europe including Italy and possibly France. Because they fear the spreading contagion, Europe wants to stop the crisis as soon as possible. In other words, Europe is getting a bailout, not just Greece.”

~~ Greg Hunter

 
Comment by bink
2010-05-07 10:59:46

Ringleader of Va. mortgage fraud gets 5 years

http://www.wtopnews.com/?nid=25&sid=1951837

Real estate agent Ruben Rojas led a criminal enterprise that resulted in 20 arrests last year. Police investigated after residents in some Fairfax County neighborhoods complained that the homes in question were serving as illegal boarding houses.

Comment by Arizona Slim
2010-05-07 11:16:31

There appears to be one of those a few blocks away from me. This house is literally the eyesore of the block. All sorts of trash in the yard — and coming and going in fancy vehicles.

I’ve tried reporting to various agencies, but they seem to be tone deaf. Not atypical for Tucson, BTW. But I’ll keep trying.

Comment by Gadfly
2010-05-07 13:35:55

Make an anonymous “gunshots heard” report. The doughnut-eaters will come a-running.

Or you could always “smell mothballs” [meth lab] coming from the house while out walking Poopsie.

 
 
Comment by Hwy50ina49Dodge
2010-05-07 11:23:10

Cheers! ;-)

 
Comment by pressboardbox
2010-05-07 11:41:21

This guy didn’t do anything that Barney Frank and his friends Fannie and Freddie didn’t do.

 
Comment by joeyinCalif
2010-05-07 11:47:43

hmm.. lots of people named Ruben Rojas.. but i did find something.

Here’s a 2-page article. No mention of boarding houses.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/05/07/AR2010050703527.html

..The frauds themselves tend not to be particularly complex. Often it’s just a matter of inflating a buyer’s income or temporarily transferring money into their accounts to make it appear they have some savings..

Comment by bink
2010-05-07 13:20:57

U.S. District Judge Gerald Bruce Lee agreed, imposing a five-year sentence that was even longer than what prosecutors sought.

“Homeownership is part of the American dream. What you did was destroy that dream,” Lee said.

*sigh*

 
 
 
Comment by RioAmericanInBrasil
2010-05-07 11:04:40

Woa, what a glitch, sorry I’m so late. This morning I accidently hit the wrong keys on my computer and ended up in thearousingbubbleblog instead of here.

Comment by ecofeco
2010-05-07 14:46:23

The one where something always goes up?

 
 
Comment by ET-Chicago
2010-05-07 11:12:15

After years of generous pay raises, Pentagon warns of fiscal calamity
By Craig Whitlock
Washington Post Staff Writer
Friday, May 7, 2010; 12:12 PM

The Pentagon, not usually known for its frugality, is pleading with Congress to stop spending so much money on the troops.

Through nine years of war, service members have seen a healthy rise in pay and benefits, leaving most of them better compensated than their peers in the private sector.

Congress has been so determined to take care of troops and their families that for several years running it has overruled the Pentagon and mandated more generous pay raises than requested by the Bush and Obama administrations. It has also rejected attempts by the Pentagon to slow soaring health-care costs — which Defense Secretary Robert M. Gates has said are “eating us alive” — by hiking co-pays or raising premiums.

Now, Pentagon officials see fiscal calamity.

Comment by measton
2010-05-07 12:42:48

IT should get intersting as the PIGS at the medicine trough are confronted by the PIGS at the military spending trough.

 
Comment by ecofeco
2010-05-07 14:48:01

Damn health care bill!

Oh wait…

 
 
Comment by Hwy50ina49Dodge
2010-05-07 11:39:50

Sir Greenisspent: “…Adequate capital and collateral levels would place the burden of losses on shareholders, not taxpayers.”

Greenspan Says Lehman Brought ‘Most Virulent’ Crisis:
By Vivien Lou Chen May 7 (Bloomberg)

Who stuck his head in the pencil sharpener? ;-)

Comment by Hwy50ina49Dodge
2010-05-07 11:52:40

Send it back Al, just FedEx overnite back to the Queen! :-)

Greenspan Arrogance Set Up U.S. for Big Fall:
Commentary by Roger Lowenstein, May 7 (Bloomberg)

“In a newly released transcript of a Federal Reserve Board meeting in March 2004, former Chairman Alan Greenspan argues against disclosing too much to the public lest the Fed “lose control of a process that only we fully understand.”

This statement ranks as a sign of monumental arrogance. It was Greenspan himself who didn’t understand — much less “fully understand”– that the Fed’s lax mortgage regulation and easy monetary policies were setting America up for a disastrous fall.

The context of Greenspan’s remark was a discussion over how much to reveal about the Fed’s thinking on monetary policy in general — not on mortgages in particular. But mortgages were part of the Fed’s monetary deliberations.

Had the Fed publicized such concerns, it might have led to a crackdown and forestalled millions of bad mortgages that would be written over the following 2 1/2 years. Instead, the Fed released minutes with sanitized phrases that had been stripped of alarming language.

“The best way to do that is to discourage leverage.”

…And post-crash, when the International Monetary Fund looked for indicators that predicted which banks would fail, it found, lo and behold, that the “basic leverage ratio” was the most reliable guide to a bank’s survival. To paraphrase a warning from the drug culture, “debt kills.”

…But in the just-ended economic cycle, lenders and investment banks were extended cheap credit as if the supply were limitless.”

 
 
Comment by michael
2010-05-07 11:45:06

i have a general question for everyone here.

if you could pay cash for a house…would…or better yet…should you?

Comment by bink
2010-05-07 11:47:40

At current interest rates, I would not. I’m pretty confident I can get a better return on the money elsewhere.

Comment by packman
2010-05-07 13:27:52

Let me know please where I can get 5% guaranteed, and I’m on it. Today. Seriously.

Comment by bink
2010-05-07 14:16:30

There are no guarantees, of course. I’d even feel safer buying AT&T and collecting the 6.50% dividend than I would paying cash for a house in most markets. It may decline in the short term, but we’re talking several decades of lost opportunity here.

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Comment by measton
2010-05-07 19:07:19

IF you are going to buy it you will be paying cash, the question is do you pay with your own cash or borrow cash from the bank and save your cash for the casino.

 
Comment by bink
2010-05-07 20:54:34

If someone wants to loan me money at 4% and I know I can get a 10% return somewhere else, I’d be a fool not to take it.

 
 
Comment by measton
2010-05-07 19:06:13

5% guaranteed and tax free.

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Comment by packman
2010-05-07 19:28:19

I presume you’re referring to the capital gains tax on equity gains right? That’s independent - you get that gain regardless of whether or not you have a mortgage or not.

The 5% gains you get from paying off your mortgage early are in essence taxed gains, because mortgage interest is tax deductible.

 
 
 
 
Comment by joeyinCalif
2010-05-07 12:40:42

The appropriate choice would seem to depend on the various specifics of the buyer’s personal and financial situations in relation to the cost of the house.

 
Comment by measton
2010-05-07 12:51:58

I’m going to pay cash, although down the road I agree higher rates will appear
The questions are
1. How long until rates go up significantlly? See Japan example
2. How much will you be taxed on those earnings?
3. What risk do you have of loosing that money in the stock market or bonds now?

 
Comment by CarrieAnn
2010-05-07 14:34:49

Wouldn’t that depend on how much cash you have left after buying your house?

 
 
Comment by sleepless_near_seattle
2010-05-07 12:13:29

I’m with the “glitch is a BS excuse” folks. How is it that someone’s fat little sausage fingers have never done this before?

Or, does this have something to do with those quants I hear of, but know nothing about?

Comment by ecofeco
2010-05-07 14:51:17

There was no “glitch.” So far looks like the computers themselves. The same thing that happened in 1987.

Comment by bink
2010-05-07 21:05:39

I was going to say, didn’t we already use the “computerized trading” excuse once before? Are we to believe that problem hasn’t been solved?

 
 
 
Comment by Cantankerous Intellectual Bomb-thrower
2010-05-07 14:22:06

Time to crank up the virtual printing press again, as the global market is running out of dollars.

The Financial Times
Bank of Japan pumps funds into market
By Robin Harding and Lindsay Whipp in Tokyo and Peter Smith in Sydney
Published: May 7 2010 04:47 | Last updated: May 7 2010 12:03

The Bank of Japan offered Y2,000bn ($21.6bn) in overnight liquidity on Friday to “increase markets’ sense of security” because of turmoil resulting from the debt crisis in Greece.

It is the bank’s first exceptional offer of overnight funds since the scare over Dubai’s sovereign debt in December 2009 and its biggest since the height of the financial crisis in December 2008.

The move shows that fears about sovereign debt default in Europe are rippling across global markets, with the Bank of Japan the first central bank to react by adding liquidity. This, however, does not reflect any significant market disruption in Japan or any fears of contagion to Japan, despite its own debt woes.

Instead, the bank’s action reflects global demand for dollar liquidity as investors move out of the euro. That has pushed up short-term US dollar interest rates and created a knock-on demand for yen liquidity as a substitute.

“It’s because of signs of difficulties in the global money markets. There is lots of demand for US dollars,” said one fixed income strategist.

EDITOR’S CHOICE
‘Crash of 2.45’ paralyses market participants - May-07
New York pulls back from turmoil - May-06
US shares plunge amid fears over debt - May-07
FT Alphaville: Live chat on market sell-off - May-06
Gapper blog: Watching financial fear - May-06
Debt fears spark plunge across markets - May-06

Comment by measton
2010-05-07 21:03:42

The move shows that fears about sovereign debt default in Europe are rippling across global markets, with the Bank of Japan the first central bank to react by adding liquidity. This, however, does not reflect any significant market disruption in Japan or any fears of contagion to Japan, despite its own debt woes.

Instead, the bank’s action reflects global demand for dollar liquidity as investors move out of the euro. That has pushed up short-term US dollar interest rates and created a knock-on demand for yen liquidity as a substitute.

How does people moving out of hte euro push up US dollar interest rates. Presumably some people move from the Euro to the dollar. This should lower rates.

 
 
Comment by CarrieAnn
2010-05-07 15:01:18

Can the Federal Reserve provide a quick fix to tame Europe’s growing financial crisis? Probably not. But it might be able to help if conditions in Europe worsen.

The Fed is considering whether to reopen a lending program put in place during the financial crisis in which it shipped dollars overseas through foreign central banks like the European Central Bank, Swiss National Bank and Bank of England. The central banks, in turn, lent the dollars out to banks in their home countries in need of dollar funding.

The Fed has felt that it is premature to reopen this program — which was shut down in February as the financial crisis appeared to wane — because it wasn’t clear that foreign banks were in need of dollar funds. Still, trading floors on Wall Street are abuzz with anticipation today that the Fed might use the program again.

WSJ, link to come

Comment by Cantankerous Intellectual Bomb-thrower
2010-05-07 15:31:38

“The central banks, in turn, lent the dollars out to banks in their home countries in need of dollar funding.”

My little household needs a loan of only $1m dollars to handle our housing needs over the foreseeable future. This is much less than those pesky international banks will suck out of our monetary system, and I promise that if I never repay the amount we borrow, my children will eventually do so. Further, I promise to not cast the money into the sea or use it to fund highly-leveraged gambling activities under the assumption that I will qualify for a too-big-to-fail bailout in case I incur gambling losses.

Will the Fed offer our little household a zero percent loan on the above terms?

Comment by ecofeco
2010-05-07 16:42:47

Can we see your country club membership card first?

Oh dear. I’m afraid you’re not a member of the “right” club.

 
 
 
 
Comment by Cantankerous Intellectual Bomb-thrower
2010-05-07 15:27:40

It is damn nerve wracking to take in so much Schadenfreude over the span of a few days!

Stocks down on day, week, year
By Alexandra Twin, senior writer
May 7, 2010: 6:03 PM ET

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) — Stocks slumped Friday, with the three major indexes ending in negative territory for the year as investors mulled the Greek debt crisis and the aftermath of one of the most gut-churning days in Wall Street history.

The Dow Jones industrial average (INDU) lost 140 points, or 1.3%, after seesawing in the morning, having gained as much as 59 points and lost as much as 279 points. The S&P 500 index (SPX) lost 17 points, or 1.5%. The Nasdaq composite (COMP) lost 54 points, or 2.3%.

All three indexes ended in negative territory for the year. All three indexes also closed lower for the fourth straight session and the second straight week.

The selloff from the late April highs has been substantial enough that the Nasdaq, with a loss of 10.5%, is now considered to be in a correction.

The Dow and S&P 500 are also approaching double-digit losses, down 7.4% and 8.7% respectively.

Stocks were extremely volatile throughout the session, with the major indexes criss-crossing the breakeven line several times during the day. Investors looked past a big rise in April payrolls and instead focused on Europe in the aftermath of Thursday’s roller-coaster ride.

Europe’s debt woes were in focus as riots continued in Greece. British elections failed to produce a ruling majority, resulting in a hung Parliament for the first time since the 1970s.

Meanwhile, U.S. investors remained rattled after a session in which the Dow lost almost 1,000 points before rebounding two-thirds of the way back.

“Investors are very confused about how the market could drop hundreds of points in minutes, and until there are concrete answers, they aren’t going to feel better,” said Andrew Neale, head of wealth management at Fogel Neale Partners.

“The market erased two months of gains in a few days, and it’s nerve wracking,” he said.

Wall Street’s fear gauge, the CBOE Volatility index, or the VIX (VIX), rose 26% Friday, to $41.43, ending at a fresh 13-month high.

Comment by joeyinCalif
2010-05-07 20:53:45

The DJIA at 7K was too cold. At 14K too hot. Around 10K seems just about right.

Comment by Professor Bear
2010-05-07 23:24:47

You’re right — we have a baby bear market now — something I personally can appreciate. :-)

 
 
 
Comment by neuromance
2010-05-07 19:24:32

The stock market’s Ashlee Simpson moment?

A few years ago, rising pop singer Ashlee Simpson began singing a song on Saturday Night Live. However, another song came out of the speakers. She ran offstage, having been outed as being a lip-syncher. Her career was (at least temporarily) crushed.

With the possibility that one trader at one keyboard was able to move the market a 1000 points, the question is raised that perhaps financial companies, with access to vast networks and powerful trading algorithms could also manipulate the market, albeit in more subtle and sophisticated ways.

I think as people begin to ponder the implications of the Thursday market gyrations, they may not like some of the conclusions they reach. What is the value of the logical constructs - the stocks - they hold, if companies can manipulate their value at will?

 
Comment by neuromance
2010-05-07 20:24:00

Stock Traders Find Speed Pays, in Milliseconds
by Charles Duhigg
New York Times, July 23, 2009

It is the hot new thing on Wall Street, a way for a handful of traders to master the stock market, peek at investors’ orders and, critics say, even subtly manipulate share prices.

It is called high-frequency trading — and it is suddenly one of the most talked-about and mysterious forces in the markets.

Nearly everyone on Wall Street is wondering how hedge funds and large banks like Goldman Sachs are making so much money so soon after the financial system nearly collapsed. High-frequency trading is one answer.

And when a former Goldman Sachs programmer was accused this month of stealing secret computer codes — software that a federal prosecutor said could “manipulate markets in unfair ways” — it only added to the mystery. Goldman acknowledges that it profits from high-frequency trading, but disputes that it has an unfair advantage.

http://www.nytimes.com/2009/07/24/business/24trading.html

 
Comment by neuromance
2010-05-07 20:38:23

I found this - http://news.slashdot.org/comments.pl?sid=1643810&cid=32118140 - intriguing. A variety of stocks moving in concert. Dunno what to make of it.

Comment by joeyinCalif
2010-05-07 21:57:34

It seems they might share some piece of software.

hmm.. even the recoveries are fairly consistent. Individual tuning could account for the larger differences, like with MSFT… or just low volume in the case of Fidelity.

Comment by joeyinCalif
2010-05-07 23:24:23

I assume the companies themselves were doing the faulty trading, and not brokerage firms. Reason why is P&G seemed to admit as much in this article from last night.

P&G: Trading error behind sudden share price drop

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) — Procter & Gamble Co (PG 60.31, -0.44, -0.72%) said a sudden drop in its share price Thursday afternoon was an error. “We aren’t in a position to comment on the details of an individual trade today but we believe the trade was an error,” P&G said in an e-mailed statement.

How could they say it was an individual trade unless they did the trade.
P&G’s chart from yesterday looks very much like those others, btw.

 
 
 
Comment by measton
2010-05-07 21:01:31

Good News

The unemployment rate rose for the right reason. Instead of shedding jobs, employers added 290,000 jobs in April, the strongest showing since 2007. The reason the unemployment rate went up is that a lot more people are suddenly looking for work. The government said that the labor force swelled by 805,000 people in April. That’s more than three times the number of new jobs, so the proportion of people looking for a job but unable to find one went up. Still, that big increase in the labor force marks an important shift in sentiment among people on the fringes of the economy.

I wonder if this increase in people looking for work has more to do with unemployment checks ending than actual optomism. Journalism is truely dead in this country.

Comment by joeyinCalif
2010-05-07 21:45:14

checks get cut off and they go looking for a job..
Why aren’t they rioting?

 
 
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