‘Temporary Abundance’ Leads To ‘Super-Deep Discounts’
Some housing bubble reports from Arizona. “Work has virtually stopped at the 10-story luxury hotel under construction south of Chandler Fashion Center, and the city has warned the project architect that some permits issued in January have yet to be paid for. Builders have finished eight floors, but the ninth and 10th floors for condominiums are considered a different phase of the project.”
“A cooling housing market and rising interest rates can only mean one thing. Free pools.”
“As Tucson’s housing market has returned to normalcy over the last few months, home buyers have seen more and more offers of free stuff, otherwise known as incentives. For Meritage Homes, it means offering a free pool worth up to $20,000.”
“There is some kind of incentive available in every subdivision, depending on the lot and on the home. Meritage is offering below-market mortgage rates, a fireplace, extended patio coverage, granite countertops and upgraded appliances, to name a few.”
“Incentives aren’t limited to the new home market. (Realtor) Geneie Adams recently listed a 1,569-square-foot home for sale in Vail with an asking price of $224,900. The sale comes with a $2,500 allowance for flooring replacement and new paint, Adams said.”
“The huge inventory of houses for sale, along with the deep discounts being offered by many area homebuilders, may be some of the first symptoms that Maricopa’s housing market is starting to cool. Only 1,280 homes sold countywide in the final quarter of 2005. It’s the third straight quarter for declining new home sales in Pinal County.”
“With super-deep discounts being offered by area homebuilders in an attempt to boost sluggish sales, some are finding houses at lower prices than six months ago, an usual situation.”
“Builders are anxious to complete their communities and move on. Richmond American, for example, has sold about 90 percent of the lots in its Vision at Maricopa Meadows community, but has a large inventory of ’spec’ homes; houses that have been built but have not sold. As a result, the homebuilder is offering as much as $70,000 off the list price on some of the completed homes.”
“Other homebuilders are rumored to be offering up to a $100,000 discount on spec homes, while others are trying to attract buyers with cash toward closing costs or upgrades and attractive financing offers.”
“‘The builders are really tempting buyers with fabulous incentives such as discounts, added amenities, pool incentives and lender incentives. You can get in with no money down,’ said (realtor) Ray Morrow. ‘Basically it’s all about incentives. While we have this temporary abundance of supply, builders are eager to offer additional incentives making this time, more than ever, a great opportunity for buyers.’”
Thanks to the Arizona readers who sent these links in.
Hot off the Press
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20060502/ap_on_bi_ge/ameriquest_cuts
Ameriquest Parent to Lay Off 3,800 Workers
LOS ANGELES - The parent company of Ameriquest Mortgage Co. and Town & Country Credit said Tuesday it will close 229 branch offices and lay off 3,800 employees nationwide as part of a plan to consolidate its retail mortgage lending operations.
ADVERTISEMENT
The restructuring by Orange-based ACC Capital Holdings Corp. is designed to cut costs and help the lender stay competitive, company officials said.
The job cuts amount to a one-third reduction of ACC Capital’s work force of 11,000. All branch offices of Ameriquest and Town & Country will be closed, with operations consolidated in several large regional locations.
“We are moving strategically and decisively to remain a leader in an industry that is undergoing fundamental changes,” CEO Aseem Mital said in a statement.
I was just about to post about Ameriquest! To many smart people here beating me to it!
ROFLMAO
I wouldn’t worry too much about these people … there are help wanted signs at fast food joints all around So. Cal.
did you hear about ameriquest laying off a third of its workforce.this is getting ugly fast.
From the Washingtonpost.
“A greater proportion of mortgage refinancers tapped their home equity for cash in the first three months of this year than in any other quarter in the past 15 years, according to an analysis released yesterday.”
About 88 percent of people refinancing their homes took out loans for at least 5 percent more than their original balances, according to the latest quarterly review of loans owned by Freddie Mac, a government-backed home mortgage company. However, more than half took loans at higher interest rates than they previously paid. In years past, refinancers chased lower rates.
“I don’t want to sound like Chicken Little here, but we’re heading for a big fall,” Rheingold said. “Our policy of using our homes as our banks is bad public policy, and we need to think of the long-term implications of the debt we have. It’s a homeownership economy where people don’t really own their homes.”
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/05/02/AR2006050201606.html
There have been 3 deaths in Maricopa in the last week. The 347 highway resembles a Nascar Superspeedway during the commutes, and big wrecks are a daily occurance. Residents actually buy into the “we are 8 minutes by air to a trauma center” when in actuality it is more like an hour.
Read the posts on 85239.com for a view of what is going on in Maricopa. Runaway mosquito problems, newbies that didnt realize that trains run all night, hundreds of homes with weeds, etc.
Apparently there are also private utility companies there too, which charge significantly higher rates than SRP, etc.
>making this time, more than ever, a great opportunity for buyers.
I thought that *last* time was supposed to be a great opportunity for buyers. And the time before that…
Is this the “for reals” great opportunity? C’mon, you can tell me…
I keep hearing this and it makes no sense. How is a declining market good for buyers and bad for sellers. Sure it’s hard for the seller to find a buyer at the top of a market, but that because it is REALLY BAD to be a buyer right now. You’re going to get a few free-bees, but you will then be upside down in your home loan for years; maybe a lot of years.
Ask these current buyers in three years how great it was to be a buyer in this market.
Read about Pending Home Sales Index Eases.
“The Pending Home Sales Index,* based on contracts signed in March, eased 1.2 percent to a level of 116.2 from an index of 117.6 in February, and is 6.0 percent below March 2005.
Existing-home sales for April will be released May 25; the next Pending Home Sales Index will be on June 1.”
Very unusual for March’s pendings to be below February’s, no?
Wow, that 1% discount $2,500 flooring allowance really oughta pull ‘em in!
I have a coworker who sold her 275k huse of 2000 for 670 this year, bought a new home pre announcement phase fpr 750k and said it is now close to 1mil. (in Simi vally , So Cal)
This is what I hear:
It is now buyers market, that means it is good time to buy! Interest rate is going up. Even though price may not be going up that much, you will not make a loss. Real estate is the best investment!
Ok, may be you can buy a condo and when prices go up in few years sell that for a profit and upgrade to a new house!
People when they make easy money loses touch with reality.
I wonder if that means that she plunked down a huge down payment on the 750k home so that she could afford the note. BTW…what *would* be the note on a (just for kicks and grins) 30-yr fixed, 6.5%, 20% down?
Just curious…..
BayQT~
$3792.41/Mo. plus Taxes & Ins…
Thanks. That is just too obscene.
BayQT~
That is really offensive…. what a ridiculous lack of ability to do math. a lifetime of debt does not really equate to winning the lottery!
“obscene”, “offensive”. Precise description.
“Other homebuilders are rumored to be offering up to a $100,000 discount on spec homes…..
And, the reason it is a “Rumor” is because these spec builders have no idea how low they are going to need to go to get the Construction Loan (that is now due) off their back….
Either the inventory or the super-deep discounts are temporarily abundant, but not both. The likely future direction is for the super-deep discounts to continue going forward, and the abundant inventory to eventually shrink as would-be sellers try to hold on until prices come back.
Stucco;….There is always going to be some baseline inventory that comes to market (Deaths, job transfers, Divorce, move up, move out etc.)…If you add to that, forclosures or sales to aviod forclosure (Job Loss) you get the obvious cpmpetitive pressure on prices…1991-1994 was a great example of this but I think the impact of a simular down turn today would be much more painful…
The baseline inventory you refer to will have to be sold at a super-discount to the list prices that you see on the MLS, because those who don’t have to sell are still dreaming about getting last year’s price.
I agree stucco…But its amazing how you see the “I don’t have to sell” come around Kicking & Screaming to the closing…I saw it in 1981-82 and also in 1991-1993….The new appraisals screw them…Even if they find a buyer at a higher price they can’t get the loan….Then the most desperate sellers will take back a 2nd to bridge the gap between the appraisal (1st loan) and the sales price…Most of these seller (2nd) carry backs either get bought at a later date at “HUGE” discounts or they end up in forclosure….Sellers (particularly men) don’t like egg on their face in front of their neighbors…They will do almost anything to show Fred across the street that “I got my Price”….
Sorry to the thread for the ramble….
and dont forget the ameriquest employees.lotsa cheap hummers and beemers for sale.
http://tinyurl.com/q75r9
Steps in the housing bubble correction (Itulip 2004)
“Step B: As housing prices begin to decline, sales will continue, though more slowly and less frequently. Old habits die slowly. One year into the decline, housing speculators will have left the market, but home owners will generally still believe that prices will either resume their rise or at least flatten out, not continue to decline. Remember the first year of the stock market bubble decline, when most people hung in there until they’d lost all of their money? The first lesson of behavioral finance is that the most common mistake made by market participants is to hang on too long and fail to cut losses.
While home owners at this stage will borrow less against their houses, and loans will be more difficult to come by, the average home owner will still make frequent trips to Home Depot or hire contractors to make home repairs and improvements, believing they’ll “get their money back” in an increase in the value of their home at least equal to the cost of fixing it. Some home owners will put their home up for sale—if they purchased early enough in the boom so that they can still realize a profit, even selling at five to twenty percent below the peak price.
That’s fascinating. That’s where all the downpayment equity is coming from. And pumping up the prices ever more. All the money made in real estate becomes down payments for ever bigger properties!
Still need to finance it. 700K is about 50K per year in interest and principal, most likely. Interest tax deductible. She can swing it. So high home prices beget high home prices. Except for the people smart enough to leave.
Of course if she can swing a $50K mortgage plus taxes, insurance, upkeep and utilities, she is probably also a candidate for the AMT, which limits her ability to deduct the interest.
Just wait for Summer Selling Season, all you doubters will be in for it then.
Soft and sweet, wise and wonderful, oooh, our mystical, magical Summer Selling Season…
Just a question…summer season WHAT YEAR?
Summer season 2010
The Summer Bummer.
Good one Cote…Your always good for a laugh…
the summer bummer had to sell my beemer.
Hummer
Yeah. Then Fearful Falls turns to Nuclear Winter.
Read about Saving Money on Commissions.
Awwww, the realtors love these sites
When you go to owners.com, there are 54,000 plus active listings. When you think of all the homes on craigslist, newspapers, websites, ebay, etc… it really starts to add up!!!
Not suppose to give part of commission back to unliscensed party in California!
“The huge inventory of houses for sale, along with the deep discounts being offered by many area homebuilders, may be some of the first symptoms that Maricopa’s housing market is starting to cool.”
Well, duh. Bright sparks, these journalists.
“A cooling housing market and rising interest rates can only mean one thing. Free pools.”
Pools never come free, due to the high cost and hassle of maintaining them.
Yeah but they can be a ton of fun too! I’ve had at least a summer pool around me since I was about 7 and easily gotten more than my money’s worth from the mantenance costs.
I bet you need a pool in Arizona .
Agreed — I have a great time in the nice, large pool right next door to the home I rent, whose maintenance is provided courtesy of HOA dues (paid by the landlord).
I thought you lived in San Diego GetStucco, or is it you wanted to buy a condo in San Diego?
Those are the best kind (because you can free ride off all the other owners and tennants who don’t use the pool). Even when my family built one it was still well worth the cost of building and maintaining. For as many hours as us kids played in it in the summer it probably worked out to be one of the cheaper forms of entertainment out there.
Isn’t there supposed to be a drought in az? I am amazed how many pools are in the desert area of phoenix. Flying into sky harbor made me realize people don’t give a rats ass about conserving water. I was happy w/ a community pool which saved lots of water from the colorado river. I even had desert landscaping to save water.
Abandoned pools becoming breeding areas for mosquitos and other pests is a huge problem in Arizona, especially around Pheonix. The cost to fill a pool can easily run in the five figures, so it is an expensive liability issue all around. Unfortunate that so many houses will be empty and possibly abandoned right now at the end of the spring when abatement is most important.
AZ & water falls under “the tragedy of the commons”.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tragedy_of_the_commons
Nah, the drought is outside PHX in the rural areas (Flagstaff, Payson, Prescott, etc). In PHX, nobody cares about conserving water because of the supply from the Colorado, aquifers, etc. It’s pretty odd to me, but that’s the way it is. So many golf courses that use 1M gallons per day, but who cares? I know, it’s treated wastewater, but if it were treated a bit more it could be drinking water.
A pool is a giant hole in the ground. Structural problems, due to lack of maintenance $ or other, render it a serious liability. Probably cost as much, in installation date $, as it would to backfill and landscape.
temporary abundance -> deep discounts -> investor bailout -> long-term abundance with no buyers -> really really really deep discounts
“In Sacramento today, Ford was advertising $4,000 dollars in discounts and a $6,000 gas card for anyone purchasing a Ford Expedition. These days that’s about 75 tanks of gas. Sales of Expeditions are down 33 percent from last year. ”
Lotsa freebies out there …lol
And don’t forget the obligatory Chevy SLOBurban to match the McMansions that are now prohibitively expense to operate.
How many square feet is two Expeditions up on blocks? 2BR modular condo man…
Use the Ford ExpLoders and SLOBurbans to fill in the giant holes that used to be swimming pools!
Every Forclosure will have a Hummer in the Garage.
Operation;….Kind of interesting you made that comment…I just previewed one…It had a 50K Master Craft next to it to boot !!
Was there a harley or rv too? hehehehe
I hear that it takes about $93 for a gas fill-up.
Does that sound right? Scary.
BayQT~
my f150 costs 80$ to fill but i gought a v6.just got back from mammoth talk about a bubble condos 400k too 1 mil.rented a 3bedroom for 200 a day got fish guts all over the place a friend got sick and vacuumed it up with with the landlords hoover what amess.the crowley fish are big this year and very hungry.i got 22 mpg on the ride home had a blast and going back this weekend.on the way up in olancha there is a billboard with half the sing blown off with an ad for kb homes saying buy the american dream no money down and i forgot my camera would make a great photo for bens photo spot.anyone going up from la take a pic of that it is a good one.
Hey maybe you and your friend could rent one of LV_investors properties and have a great time training with the lovely ladies. Welcome to Wisconsin!
LMAO
got fish guts all over the place a friend got sick and vacuumed it up with with the landlords hoover
LOL. The tenant from hell. Did you have the nerve to ask for your deposit back?
Guys, this is somewhat off topic, but housing related. We presently live north of Dallas in a great neighborhood (bought for 130ish last year) we have been thinking of moving to the Greenville South Carolina area. Housing there seems to be very cheap as well 110-120’s. Anyone have some info on that market or how would I research weather or not it was a good/bad time to buy in the area. They don’t seem to be affected by the bubble, but I also noticed they seem to have almost no appreciation in the area.
We want to move to be closer to family.
Thanks for any info you might have, I really enjoy reading this blog and have learned quite a bit in the past few months.
I don’t know too much about that area, but with those (low) prices, and with your family being there, I’d go ahead and buy, you are not looking at huge downside, IMO.
“you are not looking at huge downside, IMO.”
Would you care to qualify this prediction?
Wikipedia can give you a lot of demographic information and MyYahoo or the weather sites can help you with weather.
Why the hell is everybody and their mother talking about “moving to the Carolinas?” It’s almost like it’s the new “hip thing” — let’s move to N.C.!
Lots of magazine articles the last few years about retired military finding the Carolinas a great place to move to.
Because the Carolinas have a little bit of everything. They have scenic mountains (around Asheville) kinda like in New Hampshire… it is warm (hot) in the summer, but winters are really mild (often 50-60 degrees) but you get a few snowstorms that melt in a day or two so people can “feel” winter, it has the ocean just minutes away (a few hrs from Charlotte though- and the S. Carolina beaches are closer to Charlotte) they have great education and research facilities (the triangle) and the COL is dirt cheap. It has a mid sized city (Charlotte) too, and good medical care (carolinas medical center, duke, UNC, Wake Forest, NC State and so on)
My in-laws are from Charlotte, we go 3x a year. It’s nice. I’d never live there myself at this point in my life (don’t like how small Charlotte is, and it’s too suburban) but NORTH Carolina has a lot to offer.
Negatives: too small if you like urban living… minimal diversity (mainly white and black… now a lot of hispanics are moving there though… no asians/indians/or any thing else)… segregated (there are no blacks in my in-laws part of town in the SE… but the West Charlotte area by the Airport we went to once was almost all black) it is sort of “the south” but not too bad… (rural areas can be)…
as an old person, I’d definitely consider retiring there.
I think we’ll start hearing a lot about Richmond VA soon as well, as it has many qualities that the Charlotte NC and Charleston SC have.
The smaller cities are starting to offer a lot of what the big cities have… And many times people can’t afford what the big cities have anyway… so it makes moving attractive. Remember, many retirees are on FIXED incomes! (forget all the hoo-hah about the rich boomers spending like crazy in retirement, it’s hogwash)
Just MO.
clouseau
I’m betting the natives are just overjoyed with the influx of urban scum.
I really wanted to relocate there at one point but now everyone is going there and the housing costs are rising.
Its seems to me last year at new home tracts alot of the homes in the lower priced range charged extra if you wanted a fireplace ,good flooring , upgraded counter tops ,( alot of extras that use to come standard in new home tracts 10 to 20 years ago) . I’m sure builders got people to spend alot more with these extras that should of been included last year. Now they are just giving these features to induce buyers .
Okay. Everybody repeat after me. Today’s lesson is a-d-vertising. ‘Temporary Abundance’ Leads To ‘Super-Deep Discounts’ means: ‘Permanent Surplus Needs to be Sold at a Profit.’
Ain’t super, ain’t deep, ain’t temporary. You’ll know when the bargin are super when the ads read; “For Sale: House. Rooms and other stuff. Call beeper (cel repossed) anytime.”
I’m afraid we’re going to see these signs littering the SoCal freeways. I really am thinking about starting a REPO firm. Anyone?
Ben Jones’ Repo Company. I like it. Seriously, we should all be thinking along these lines. (dangerous work, I know)
OT - just ran across this article.
http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?guid=%7B4630D55F%2DAFFF%2D41EF%2D8230%2D62365DF8DFB3%7D&source=blq%2Fyhoo&dist=yhoo&siteid
Bottom line was first quarter refi’s were from existing loans averaging 3.2 years in age. This is the average not the mean. If 10% were 10-15 year old loans, then 40% to 50% would have to come from 1-2 year old loans. Good grief! Some folks are in trouble.
Prices to move up in the ‘Single Digets’ this year. Another Kool Aid drinker. How about, Reverse Bubble Price Appreciation.
Per the article, over half of the refis had rates which were greater than the original mortgage. I’m guessing that a lot of people are refinancing out of suicide loans and into 10 or 15 year I/O FRMs (fixed rate for 30 years with 10 or 15 year I/O periods). This will be what props things up for a while. It’s also why people should think prices just might not be going up, even after 10 or 15 years, since these people will now have to pay the principal over 15 or 20 years instead of 30. Of course, they plan to sell for a profit. All bets are off if there is no wage inflation, IMHO. I’m counting on a long, long, long downturn.
Ameriquest Parent to Lay Off 3,800 Workers
LOS ANGELES - The parent company of Ameriquest Mortgage Co. and Town & Country Credit said Tuesday it will close 229 branch offices and lay off 3,800 employees nationwide as part of a plan to consolidate its retail mortgage lending operations.
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20060502/ap_on_bi_ge/ameriquest_cuts_4
The proverbial sh*t is hitting the fan…And how far ahead of the game were us bloggers?
A bit of news from Australia…………….
http://finance.news.com.au/story/0,10166,19010905-462,00.html
And this…………………
http://finance.news.com.au/story/0,10166,19011017-31037,00.html
Before anyone starts going “The Aussies only pay $1.40 for gas???!!??” Keep in mind that gas is sold by the liter in most of the world, and in the US we buy gas by the GALLON. 1 Gallon = 3.78 liters.
NYMEX June oil at $74.84 and in contango until 3/2008. Goldman Sachs prediction of a $105/bbl super spike in 2006 will hit hard this summer as supply fails to meet demand.
Get ready.
And now for our daily calisthenics–
Raise your hands WAY up over your head….ok, now ssslloowwllyy…bend WAY over and touch your ankles. Squeeze tight…
And repeat after me..
Thank you sir,may I please have another?
Ahhh yes. The artificial “prices” we have paid for so long. The true “cost” of oil is about to hit the US very, very hard…This is going to make the 70’s oil shocks look like Woodstock.
Crude oil inventory is near all time highs, refineries at 93%. It isn’t oil, it is gasoline that is supply constrained.
Amen Operation. Let the four winds blow. I called $5/gal fuel 2 years ago. It’s nearly upon us.
I sent Ben some pics of the local office of Ameriquest. They have some signage up. LMAO!
My local Credit Union is offering a free Real Estate Investing Seminar next Tuesday night in Mira Mesa. I’m tempted to go just so I can get to know some nice, friendly future foreclosures who might be thinking of “getting in”. Anyone would want to invest right now just has SUCKER written all over them. Or worse.
Sadly, I don’t think they will be covering the more urgent topics at hand.
Which credit union in Mira Mesa? Is it on Mira Mesa Blvd?
I’m starting to hear a tiny voice of people who think they can make money off the foreclosure market. Beware!! The major mtg. players are SWAMPED in the REO/BK depts. with short sale offers right now. They are not selling properties at fire sale prices!!! They are sitting back and letting properties sit on the market to get the best price. This will take time. Sit tight and get cash fat.
BK lawyer,
Thank you, as always, for your insights! It’s good to hear from people “in the trenches.”
Agree. This bubble is nowhere near done. That’s evidenced by all the folks trying to get into foreclosures. Still WAY too much optimism regarding RE. The time to buy is when NOBODY wants to buy RE, especially amateur vultures.
Mission Federal Credit Union.
I would def. be interested in foreclosures at the time and place where the barrier to entry is *NOT* pie-in-the-sky.
I noticed this from Yahoo’s front page.
http://biz.yahoo.com/special/firsthome06_article1.html
Total monthly debt service should not exceed 32% .
Put that in bold print and advertise that. On more nail in the housing bubble. MSM trots out a tired advice column a day late and a couple of bucks short after 3-5 years of ‘homeowners’ ignored or was ignorant of this advice.
Article inWaPo about cash out refis being 70B something in first quarter. that’s 70B of equity extracted.
Don’t think that includes HELOC balances.
What exactly is temporay about this abundent supply? Unless some disaster destroy’s lots of homes they’ll be there for a while. In bubblier areas there are years worth of normal demand owned by investors.
10 story condos in Chandler- I think I have heard it all.
Builders have finished eight floors, but the ninth and 10th floors for condominiums are considered a different phase of the project
Of course it is. Kinda like the manager in the company I once worked for who was famous for never going over budget in his projects.
The secret: when the budget ran out, the project was finished! And now that the project is finished, just to be proactive here’s a “maintenance project” and budget for things that “might” come up in the future on that original project.