Bits Bucket For May 14, 2010
Post off-topic ideas, links and Craigslist finds here. The DC meetup link at the forum is here. Click here for the shadow inventory thread.
Examining the home price boom and its effect on owners, lenders, regulators, realtors and the economy as a whole.
Post off-topic ideas, links and Craigslist finds here. The DC meetup link at the forum is here. Click here for the shadow inventory thread.
BankUnited failure cost $815M more than expected
South Florida Business Journal
The failure of BankUnited FSB in 2009 cost the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. $815 million more than it initially expected.
That makes it the second-most-costly bank failure in FDIC history – behind only the $12.75 billion estimated cost of the failed IndyMac Bank in 2008.
The FDIC released updated figures for the cost of bank failures to its Deposit Insurance Fund (DIF), which is funded by assessments against banks. The estimates can move up and down over the life of bank receiverships, which can last from three to five years, FDIC spokesman David Barr said.
When Coral Gables-based BankUnited FSB failed in May 2009, the FDIC estimated the cost at $4.9 billion. In updated figures, the cost ballooned to $5.715 billion.
As of February the FDIC was in the hole by $8.2 Billion. I wonder what the status is now.
Doesn’t the FDIC have a blank check with the Federal Reserve just like Fannie and Freddie?
Last I saw, as of last August, they have a $500 Billion borrowing authority from the Treasury, through 2010. Something tells me they’ll be extending that date.
link
…
If the fund is drained, the FDIC also has the option of tapping a line of credit at the Treasury Department that Congress extended in May to $100 billion, with temporary borrowing authority of $500 billion through 2010.
…
How unstlylish. Everyone knows $1 trillion is the new $500 billion.
The only “problem” is that by bailing out the FDIC, you bail out the common folk indirectly when their bank fails. Since we as all know Bailouts are only for the wealthy, I bet this bothers some of the banksters!
Mabye. I’m not that knowledgeable with bank failure/restructuring - but I’ll bet a good chunk of that change goes to the banks that buy up the various pieces of the failed banks - the accounts and such.
E.g. when IndyMac went under, it wasn’t just totally liquidated and the FDIC funds given directly to the depositors. IndyMac was bought by IMB Holding Company, a hedge fund partnership, under the agreement they’d reopen it as OneWest. As a part of that the FDIC agreed to foot the bill for part of the losses - I believe well beyond the $100k/$250k per account.
So I’ll bet that IMB made a bunch of $$ on the deal, at the taxpayer’s expense, and I’ll bet this same thing happens with a lot of these FDIC takeovers.
I bet this bothers some of the banksters!
The alternative is that the peasants’ deposits are no longer guaranteed, in which case a mad rush ensues to move cash out of zombie banks (that’s you, Citi!) I bet the banksters would like that even less.
U.S. Home Seizures Reach Record as Recovery Delayed
(Bloomberg) — U.S. home foreclosures climbed to a record in April, a sign that government mortgage relief efforts have yet to turn the tide of property seizures, according to a report by RealtyTrac Inc.
“Right now it appears that the banks are focusing on processing the loans already in foreclosure, and slowing down the initiation of new foreclosure proceedings as a way of managing inventory levels,” Rick Sharga, RealtyTrac’s executive vice president, said in an e-mail. “We’ll probably see this trend continue for a while.”
Bank repossessions rose to 92,432 in April, up 45 percent from a year earlier, Irvine, California-based RealtyTrac said today in a statement. Foreclosure filings, including default and auction notices, fell 2 percent to 333,837. One out of every 387 households received a filing.
Can’t they see the tsunami of foreclosures headed in their direction?
IMO they can, but they’re best method for survival is treading water so that’s what they’re doing, just trying to survive another day.
Exactly, survive one more day and hope for a miracle.
The only “green shoots” will be the weeds in the lawns of foreclosed homes!
Sales are up and yet so are foreclosures.
Churn, baby, churn!
I am surprised the cry/whine for a reinstatement of the tax credit has not been louder.
Home Buyer Tax Credit Takes its Toll ~ CNBC
As the end of the home buyer tax credit neared last month, we all argued whether or not the increase in sales and the relative price stabilization could survive on their own.
The first clues indicate the answer is: No.
One full week after the tax credit’s expiration, mortgage applications fell 9.5 percent; this as mortgage interest rates dropped below 5 percent.
Sure, refis jumped, but that doesn’t help us much with the currently bloated inventory of homes on the market.
Another report today from Trulia.com showed home sellers losing that little bit of ground they had recently gained in pricing. The number of properties on the market as of May 1st that saw at least one price cut rose 10 percent.
“With more than a year of the federal government’s involvement, we are now re-entering the free market system.
As we read just to the free market, we expect to hit turbulence in some markets,” says Pete Flint, Trulia co-founder and CEO. “We won’t know the true severity of the tax credit expiration until the conclusion of the peak home buying season in the summer months. Only then will we have a better sense if the U.S. housing market can stand on its own two feet.”
That “turbulence” translates into a whopping $25 billion in home equity obliterated from our nation’s neighborhoods.
wmbz, I am surprised too.
I don’t get cable…has anyone there been squawking for a resurrection of the $15K-for-everybody credit? It was was such a big deal six months ago. Then again, I guess they got their greed fix from the supported DOW.
I read yesterday on a *ahem* blog that the Admin is making a lot of regulatory changes very quietly. [polly? any evidence of this?] I wonder if Somebody quietly told Somebody: no mo’ money.
Regulations can’t be changed “quietly.” An actual regulation change has to be put out in proposed form, then you get comments and then they make any changes and publish the final form. At least that is the way it happens in my agency and all the others that I am familiar with. Now, if no one in the MSM pays any attention, not that many people will notice, but in these days of the internet, you can bet there are specialty blogs about the doings of almost any federal agency you can name. I’d recommend a google search. If you’d rather do the leg work yourself, then go to the agency’s website. Sign up for every news alert/news letter you can find. Look for a new developments page. Heck, if you check out the FDIC site you could probably find the bank examiner’s handbook. This stuff is all public.
There are administrative actions that are well below the level of regulation that the public does not get to comment on, but they are made public too. Even a decision that is related to a specfic person and is therefore considered private will often be published in a sanitized version that makes the relevant facts public while the actual person (bank, company, etc.) is not exposed.
Honestly, this stuff is as old as the hills. All administrations do it, though often they are stupid enough to not do it until their final months. Since all regulations are subject to recall (you can call the changes back without going through the proposed/comments/finalize process) if they were finally published in the last 3 months (I think, could be 6 months, or even 2), waiting to the end of an administration to put your stamp on them is pure laziness. If you actually believe in the changes you are making, there is no reason to merely impose them on the next guy and not have to live with it yourself.
I’m guessing the EPA and FDA are changing stuff like gangbusters and started the process from day one. Whatever you believe about each party being just like the other, Dems are more into product and environmental safety than Repubs. It is a way to privatize costs of production (pollution has a cost, so do unsafe products) on the people making the profits.
Thank you for the insight, Polly. And yes, by “quietly,” I meant out of sight of the MSM. It’s still public and transparent, and published in the Federal Register for anyone who’s interested.
Actually, there is a way regulations can be changed ‘quietly’. You simply don’t enforce them.
“As we read just to the free market…”
re-adjust, lil help for the CNBC editors
Why waste time with a measley tax-credit for individuals when they can just announce a $10 trillion bailout for the banks when the time comes?
“That translates into a whopping $25 billion in home equity obliterated from our nation’s neighborhoods.”
Main Entry: oblit·er·ate
1 a : to remove utterly from recognition or memory b : to remove from existence : destroy utterly all trace, indication, or significance of c : to cause to disappear (as a bodily part or a scar) or collapse (as a duct conveying body fluid) : remove 4
2 : to make undecipherable or imperceptible by obscuring or wearing away
3 : cancel
I love this line:
“With more than a year of the federal government’s involvement, we are now re-entering the free market system.”
The tax credit was the pimple on the ass of government involvement. Take away Fannie and Freddie and then we’ll see what the market looks like when “free”.
The GSEs have a far bigger impact than the tax credit, IMHO. The tax credit was akin to “cash for clunkers”, bringing already existing demand forward a bit–after cash for clunkers ended, there was a brief dip in demand, and now we are well above those sales levels.
If you change the GSEs, you fundamentally change the housing picture.
“With more than a year of the federal government’s involvement, we are now re-entering the free market system.”
A-HA!!! So now we know who alpha-sloth really is - Pete Flint.
At least they both seem to think we’re just an single step or so away from a “free market system”.
Ha! I’m more of a Larry Flynt type. And I don’t think we’re anywhere near a free market system- we’ll need better regulation to achieve that.
When did “free market” become “free money?”
This reads much better as, “… we’re re-entering the free money system.”
Golly, if this keeps up people might have to spend their own money to buy a house!
5th UPDATE:NY AG Subpoenas 8 Banks In Mortgage Ratings Probe
NEW YORK (Dow Jones)–New York Attorney General Andrew Cuomo has subpoenaed eight banks in a probe into whether misrepresentations were made about some securities backed by mortgages in order to improve their credit ratings, a person familiar with the investigation said Thursday.
The three major rating agencies–McGraw-Hill Cos.’ (MHP) Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s Corp.’s (MCO) Moody’s Investors Service and Fimalac SA’s (FIM.FR) Fitch Inc.–also have received subpoenas in the probe, the person said. The subpoenas were issued late Wednesday, the person said.
Well, that’ll poke a hole in your tinfoil hat. Your republicrat hat too.
”Companies have just figured out, ‘We didn’t want to
fire people …gut the middle class but now that they’re gone, we’ve realized that we can get by without them,”’Millions of Jobs That Were Cut Won’t Likely Return NYT
The economy is strengthening. But millions of jobs lost in the recession could be gone for good.
And unlike in past recessions, jobs in the beleaguered manufacturing sector aren’t the only ones likely lost forever. What sets the Great Recession apart is the variety of jobs that may not return.
That helps explain why economists think it will take at least five years for the economy to regain the 8.2 million jobs wiped out by the recession — longer than in any other recovery since World War II.
It means that even as the economy strengthens, more Americans could face years out of work. Already, the percentage of the labor force unemployed for six months or longer is 4.3 percent. That’s the highest rate on records dating to 1948.
”Companies have just figured out, ‘We didn’t want to fire people … but now that they’re gone, we’ve realized that we can get by without them,”’ said John Graham, a Duke finance professor who directed the survey.
Productivity grew at an annual rate of 6.3 percent in the year ending in March, the Labor Department said this month. It was the largest increase in 48 years, though most economists think that pace isn’t sustainable.
Many economists say eventually, companies won’t be able to squeeze any more work out of their employees. That would force employers to step up hiring.
But Janet Yellen, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, cautions that this won’t happen anytime soon. She believes corporate America remains in the early stages of a drive for greater efficiencies.
”We may be in store for … high productivity growth for some time,” she said in a speech this year. ”If so, the rate of job creation will be frustratingly slow.”
http://www.nytimes.com/aponline/2010/05/13/business/AP-US-Jobs-Gone-for-Good.html
I read this article yesterday, and thought “Duh.” There is a massive difference between unemployment that is caused by an inventory/consumption hiccup and unemployment that is caused by structural change in the economy. The former returns very quickly; the latter returns never. I believe that this downturn is much more structural than any of the downturns in recent memory.
Of course, that’s actually a _good_ thing, because the economy was mal-structured before.
“Many economists say eventually, companies won’t be able to squeeze any more work out of their employees. That would force employers to step up hiring overseas.”
There, I fixed it.
Exactly.
The jobs are not coming back, and unemployment will only go up in the long run until some serious changes are made. Fortunately, a higher cost of living and added taxes will somehow “help” us get through this rough time?!
Are you sure that isn’t due to the American unemployed just being lazy? (snark)
Mexico’s Calderon to protest Arizona law to Obama
MEXICO CITY (Reuters) - Mexican President Felipe Calderon will protest to U.S. President Barack Obama in Washington next week about Arizona’s crackdown on illegal immigrants, Calderon told Reuters on Thursday.
Calderon said a law that will come into force in Arizona in July, requiring police to check the immigration status of anyone they suspect is in the United States illegally, was already affecting relations between the two neighbors.
“It contains elements that are frankly discriminatory, terribly backward,” Calderon told Reuters in an interview.
He said he would bring Mexico’s protest over the law to a meeting with Obama and in front of the U.S. Congress during an official visit to Washington next week.
“The fact the law has introduced, regardless of all the nuances being used, the possibility of detaining, arresting somebody on the grounds of their physical appearance implies one of the most serious reversals that I remember,” he said.
Obama should remind Calderon about how Mexico treats illegal Central Americans who sneak into Mexico.
Shhhh…. don’t bring up facts at a time like this!
Yeah, maybe if Mexico had open borders, they could complain; they’re just made that Arizona made it harder for Mexico to export its problems here.
they’re just mad that Arizona made it harder for Mexico to export its problems here
Bingo.
“I have a dream that my four little children will one day live in a nation where they will not be judged by the color of their skin but by the content of their character.”
My question for Mexican President Felipe Calderon is, are we allowed to judge by the content of their character?
New FBI Statistics on Crimes Committed by Illegal Aliens
CaPoliticalNews ^ | November 12, 2006 | FBI/INS
Posted on Tuesday, November 14, 2006 12:18:09 PM by Zakeet
INS/FBI Statistical Report on Undocumented Immigrants
2006 (First Quarter) INS/FBI Statistical Report on Undocumented Immigrants
CRIME STATISTICS 95% of warrants for murder in Los Angeles are for illegal aliens.
83% of warrants for murder in Phoenix are for illegal aliens.
86% of warrants for murder in Albuquerque are for illegal aliens.
75% of those on the most wanted list in Los Angeles, Phoenix and Albuquerque are illegal aliens.
24.9% of all inmates in California detention centers are Mexican nationals here illegally
40.1% of all inmates in Arizona detention centers are Mexican nationals here illegally
48.2% of all inmates in New Mexico detention centers are Mexican nationals here illegally
29% (630,000) convicted illegal alien felons fill our state and federal prisons at a cost of $1.6 billion annually
53% plus of all investigated burglaries reported in California, New Mexico, Nevada, Arizona and Texas are perpetrated by illegal aliens.
50% plus of all gang members in Los Angeles are illegal aliens from south of the border.
71% plus of all apprehended cars stolen in 2005 in Texas, New Mexico, Arizona, Nevada and California were stolen by Illegal aliens or “transport coyotes”.
47% of cited/stopped drivers in California have no license, no insurance and no registration for the vehicle. Of that 47%, 92% are illegal aliens.
63% of cited/stopped drivers in Arizona have no license, no insurance and no registration for the vehicle. Of that 63%, 97% are illegal aliens
66% of cited/stopped drivers in New Mexico have no license, no insurance and no registration for the vehicle. Of that 66% 98% are illegal aliens.
BIRTH STATISTICS 380,000 plus “anchor babies” were born in the U.S. in 2005 to illegal alien parents, making 380,000 babies automatically U.S.citizens.
97.2% of all costs incurred from those births were paid by the American taxpayers.
66% plus of all births in California are to illegal alien Mexicans on Medi-Cal whose births were paid for by taxpayers
Jeff
I’m not a fan of the culture, but regardless, those are alarming stats. I do judge people by the content of the character, and not by the color of their skin or ethnic features.
Just to clarify, my dislike/respect of a culture is more about the general sampling of it’s moral fiber (i.e. character).
Example: Wallet /Japan, and the $ was still there when I went back to get it.
“66% plus of all births in California are to illegal alien Mexicans on Medi-Cal whose births were paid for by taxpayers”
This whole anchor baby thing is absurd. Time to change the law.
I’m hesitant to change the Constitutional definition of a citizen, but I agree something has to be done. Fro example, find some way to support the children to be contibuting American citizens, while at the same time not supporting the illegal parents. Unfortunately, I can think of a way to do it. It would just give us 380,000 Elian Gonzalazes.
Posturing. He has an electorate to answer too as well.
Not entirely. Re-election to any political office is banned by the Mexican constitution. Of course, his party (the PAN) wants to win the next election. Of course the PAN has botched things so badly in Mexico that its almost certain that the next administration down there will be from the extreme left. If you think Obama and the Dems are socialists, wait until you get a load of the PRD.
“Mexican President Felipe Calderon will protest to U.S. President Barack Obama in Washington next week about Arizona’s crackdown on illegal immigrants, Calderon told Reuters on Thursday.”
Yeah, because Mexico treats its illegals from its southern neighbors SOOOOOO much better than the USA does.
Yes we should shoot to kill border jumpers like they do on their southern border
Fair is fair!
Tell that to Mexicans and you will be treated to a long speech about how Mexico is a sovereign nation and it has the right to defend its borders and people from invading foreigners, etc.
The bottom line is that Mexicans believe thay have a right to be in the SW USA, because they still believe that it is their territory, stolen from them by the USA. And the way things are going, it really will be someday.
I thought we stole it from Spain, who stole it from Mexico.
Hmm, it seems my history is not that good. Mexico gained independence from Spain through war that lasted from 1810-1821. Then the Mexican-American war was from 1846-1848, with the result of transfer of the southwest territories by treaty with Mexico. The Spanish-American war was a naval conflict in 1898 that didn’t have anything to do with the above. Sorry!
Which in turn was stolen from the Indians.
Arizona is the new Alsace-Lorraine.
Yes. I live in N. AZ. My family emigrated from Alsace. Lots of history there. So yes, lots of concern.
Mine the border.
Let Flippy tell it to his drug cartels.
Animal House 2010
Arizona: Dress that line. Dress that line, mister! Dress that line, soldier. Mister, hold my mount. [to Jose] You fat, disgusting slob! You’re a goddamned disgrace! Show me your papers!
Calderon: [watching from afar] A vicious mother, isn’t he?
Obama: He can’t do that to our immigrants.
Calderon: Only Mexico can do that to our immigrants.
Mexican President Felipe Calderon will protest to U.S. President Barack Obama in Washington next week about Arizona’s crackdown on illegal immigrants
I hope (but don’t have much confidence) that Obama has the cojones to ask Calderon why it is that so many Mexicans can’t find work in their own country.
The Mexican elite have been relying on the US as their escape valve for decades, but now the Mexodus has gotten so out of hand that its no wonder they don’t want it to stop. Even after exporting millions of its still loyal citizens to the US and even with the billions in remittances they send home (Mexico’s #1 source of foreign funds, even more than oil) the place is still sinking. Imagine if we sent their 20 million illegals back. Not only would they have to take care of them, the remittances would be “bye-bye”. Mexico wouldn’t last a month.
So what. Our problems with the illegal immigration are too big to let any complaints by others to change our mind.
It’s truly stunning to see how one liberal lie gets repeated over and over again. If they would have let this one lie, hardly any changes would’ve occurred. Now, with all of the sensational news about 1070, the illegal immigrants are leaving on their own accord.
Course it s a liberal thing. Has nothing to do with corporations wanting dirt cheap labor.
+1
-1
0
There was a beat-down in a migrant labor camp one town over, about three days ago. The victim was beaten to death, I guess he didn’t pay his coyotes. No follow-up news as yet.
LOL, they don’t need no stinkin’ courts or tax credits. Don’t pay, and you’re toast. Maybe the banks could hire them as collection agents.
Dear Presidente Calderon,
F#ck you!
Sincerely,
SV
+1
“The euro is down to $1.2464. Earlier in the day it dropped to an 18-month low of $1.2433. The euro has dropped more than 6 percent since the beginning of the month.” European real-estate sounds like great buying opportunity for wealthy Americans.
Bernanke better speed up the printing press to balance our worthless currencies.
We seem to be losing the race to the bottom (aka Keynesian ugly contest).
That’s not for lack of trying!
Indeed!
To think that with all of the efforts by The Powers That Be, we’re still not at hyperinflation yet - but not for lack of trying, of course!
Might this also encourage those Euros who bought here to cut bait, and thus add to our inventory?
Sounds like it’s a good time to buy Euros and head to Europe for vacation.
From CNBC today. This one gave me a chuckle:
Rich Greeks Hide Their Swimming Pools
Residents in rich areas of the Greek capital Athens are scrambling to hide their swimming pools under tarpaulins as tax authorities resort to satellite images to identify the owners and make them pay…
Swimming pools are considered luxury goods in Greece and subject to tax.
For a pool of between 25 and 60 square meters, owners would have to pay up to 800 euros ($1,000) per year unless they can transfer 11,600 euros to a Greek bank account and use it for purchasing certain goods…
Only some 300 households in the north of Athens have declared owning swimming pools, but tax authorities discovered, with the help of satellite photographs, that there are about 17,000 pools in the area…
Owners are now covering them up with tarpaulins the color of grass or concrete to make them undetectable from air, the paper wrote.
Fighting tax evasion in the country of 11 million, where the “grey” economy is estimated at a third of gross domestic product, is one of the ways the government is hoping to raise revenue.
Oh man - that is just too funny.
A Tarp for a TARP:
Greek Hardware Stores Report Run on Camo Tarps.
-Good Onion headline.
Excellent!
Thank goodness we’re above hiding things in this nation from taxes… like foreclosed homes on which the banks should be paying property tax, and (looks around at shadow inventory)… oh, nevermind…
Maybe the rioters need to swarm through the neighborhoods stealing pool tarps. That would be a useful expenditure of their energy!
“b…b…but it’s not a swimming pool Mr. Chopperman.
It’s merely the kiddies ice skating rink …that suffered a serious melt down !!”
This is a great example actually of how the poor and middle classes get screwed over in big-government states. Even though taxes are supposedly progressive - the rich can find all kinds of ways out of paying taxes - sometimes legally (tax loopholes), sometimes illegally (hiding things offshore, or under tarps).
The middle and lower classes get screwed by having to pick up the slack for higher government spending - either by paying myriads of other miscellaneous other taxes (sales taxes, property taxes, vice taxes, all kinds of fees, etc.), or by inflation, or both.
Owners are now covering them up with tarpaulins the color of grass or concrete to make them undetectable from air, the paper wrote.
That’s all wonderful 2-3 years from now, when they hopefully weren’t using the pool the day the satellite goes over next. But do they understand that hiding it today does nothing to hide the picture currently in use that shows the pool as it was 2-3 years ago? It’s too late to hide it from satellites!
I used to track the age of Google map satellite images by following the construction of an above-ground subway station. Someone I know tracks it by checking to see if the image still shows blue tarp is still on his roof from a storm.
Deutsche Bank CEO doubts Greece can repay debt May 14, 2010 7:42 AM ET
All Thomson Reuters news FRANKFURT (Reuters) - Deutsche Bank Chief Executive Josef Ackermann cast doubt on Greece’s ability to repay its debt in a TV interview and said a $1 trillion euro zone rescue package will help stabilize Italy and Spain, while the situation in Portugal is more difficult.
Lost Another Bidding War
We got the news that our offer did not win. Mrs Lip is despondent. I’m happy. I wonder why this house buying thing is so important for her because now we can rent for about $400 less per month.
Its too soon to know for sure, but the winning bid was apparently much higher than ours and we were $5k over the asking price.
“Mrs Lip is despondent.”
Not a good sign in that nobody likes to lose. This means the next time she will be more willing to bid up in order to win. These are the emotions that fuel buying frenzys. Fasten your seat belt and put on your crash helmet.
The “Suzanne Researched It” commercial was all about the wife’s emotion pitted against the husband’s logic. We all saw who won that battle (with a bit of help from Suzanne).
I hope you have a comfortable couch.
Lip, get ready for P. Bear to rip you a new one!
Where’s Muggy?
“Mrs Lip is despondent.”
You might have to throw Mrs. Lip into a cold shower after visiting future houses.
“we were $5k over the asking price”
The winning bid was much higher? I hope it was a one of a kind place.
Why are you in a bidding war? That’s the first question to ask yourself.
Hopefully she will cheer up. My wife and I went through this same thing trying to buy a house. We walked away from a house that had ‘another bidder’ because we weren’t willing to pay more than we were bidding.
Eventually the owners annoyed the other bidder by trying to force him up to a higher price and he walked too.
A month later, we resubmitted our bid and got the house.
And yet, if we hadn’t gotten the house, we could be paying LESS for equivalent homes now.
I don’t know how much correction your area has shown, but ours is definitely got some more correction to get through.
When we had ‘lost’ on previous houses, my wife was always bummed. Good luck, and hopefully you’ll get a place at a decent price.
Yes, thanks, there are plenty of homes available, it just comes down to finding “that one”. So far we’ve lost in the bidding on two of those. I am patient but the fetching Mrs Lip is not.
My wife was less patient than me as well. I suggesting reminding her how much MORE excited she’ll be about “the one” that you get when you do so at a price you like, not at a price the seller likes. Even though we didn’t get the deal of the century because we bought to soon, we still giggle over making the seller take an offer they had scoffed at before.
The problem with trying to buy a house is having to look for them. Its probably better today with the internet, but at the end of the day, you still have to spend mucho butt time in a car with a realtor being shuttled from one place to another.
I haven’t house hunted since 1988, and the thought still gives me the shivers. Hopefully the next place I live will be found by my kids (ya know, put pops in the “home”).
God, I hated that.
We started out touring houses with a relitter every other weekend, it seemed like.
By the end, when we were really working on it, we would go to a few open houses at most once a month, just to see what was out there, and only got our relitter involved when we wanted to lowball.
Y’all, yes the couch might be used and no its not comfortable. She just stomped out of the house for a drive. Sure hope she comes back.
The house was undervalued and was in an area that I could live the rest of my life.
I like to live by the motto, “A happy wife is a happy life” but sometimes its just not in the cards. When you have children and are still married to the mother, its best to work things out the best you can.
Prof Bear probably figures I’m beyond his scorn or maybe he’s working today [You have to ask do Professors ever work]
Hey Lip,
You need to do what is going to be right for you and your family. Hang in there the right house will come along and at a price you will and your wife will feel good about.
I used to laugh and smile when I saw those little yellow car window stickers that read…
“Wife is in the trunk”
…and then I wondered…?
I bought earlier than I would have liked to make the marriage happier in general. The wife bought later than she would have liked (she agreed to a year of waiting in 2007) when it was obvious that buying would make me less happy than not buying was making her.
And we bought the house you’re describing. The place we can stay for pretty much good assuming our area doesn’t go Detroit style.
Where you bought? I doubt it will go Detroit style sfbubble.
Me too, which is why I bought. But it’s not inconceivable that it would happen.
“…..the couch might be used…….”
Dude, you are fooked. Grow a pair. Why should YOU sleep on the couch? Did you do anything wrong? No. You had a disagreement on making the biggest financial you’ll probably ever make.
This is why I have an ex-wife. She played the “I’m going to cut you off, unless you see things my way….” all the time. Which morphed into a “Your job is to make me happy” attitude. They get away with this for a while, when you are in your 20s-30s, and the “little head” is still doing a lot of thinking for your “big head”. …..but then you get into your 40s, and after 20 years of this, you start asking yourself why you are knocking yourself out to make her “happy”. Especially when nothing ever makes her happy.
(I won’t go into the ethics of a woman that uses sexual favors as a means to extort changes in your behavior. About every woman I know does it, without thinking about the ethics of the tactic, and the logical conclusion one can draw. Especially when doing it to con you into changing your legitimate difference of opinion.
And yeah, it’s going to be difficult for me to have any kind of relationship with a woman with my attitude. It sucks, but it’s not as bad as being in a relationship where you feel like you are just a means for someone else’s ends).
X-GS,
Dude I hear ya, I’m going to do just fine and FYI I like the pair I’m wearing.
Is she crazy? Maybe. Is she going to get over this? I dunno. Is she the mother of my children? Yes, and she always will be. Therefore I do the best I can to keep it all together.
Lip
Especially when nothing ever makes her happy.
Based on my life experience that’s now a red flag for “perhaps medication should be considered for your condition”. In my King Little-Head phase it didn’t occur to me that maybe it really wasn’t me and that perhaps they honestly needed some professional help.
CM,
Yes, but can you tell her/them that? Here babe, try one of these —- please.
She was getting professional help, for a long time. I got to participate in a session, once. Consisted of an hour of her detailing all of my personal failings. Most of which were my insensitivity to her “needs”.
Of course, I’m supposed to be the stand-up guy, and be “supportive” of whatever stupid-ass decisions she makes without consulting me. Like the $2500 Kirby vacuum cleaner. And the $30,000 pi$$ed away on the horses. And the little thing she had going on with the church minister…..that was just a big “misunderstanding”. I could go on……But I digress.
Like the saying goes, some things are just too fooked to fix.
Urban Myth- Crazy women are good in the sack.
It’s only hard to tell them the first time. And crappy useless counselors/therapists/doctors/shrinks are *everywhere*. The good ones are amazing, though. Problem is, once they’ve got a bad one telling them what they want to hear, they don’t have much interest in finding a better one that will tell them something they don’t want to hear.
Urban Myth- Crazy women are good in the sack.
I don’t know..my ex- who took a bunch of pills after an argument about why I hadn’t added her as a friend on FaceBook (yeah, really) was a good time. Outside of all the craziness, that is.
To the tune of “She’s come undone” by The Guess Who
Sleaze come undone
Sheeple didn’t know what they’re headed for
And when they found what they’re headed for
It was too late
Sleaze come undone
They built a mountain that was far too high
And when the resets proved it couldn’t fly
It was too late
It’s too late
Sleaze gone too far
Sleaze lost the sun
Sleaze come undone
FBs wanted wealth but all they got was lies
Came the time to realize
And it was too late
Sleaze come undone
J6P didn’t know what he was headed for
And when he found what he was headed for
Mama, it was too late
It’s too late
Sleaze gone too far
Sleaze lost the sun
Sleaze come undone
Too many debt mountains, and not enough tranches to climb
Too many brokers and not enough truth
Too many sheeple and not enough eyes to see
Too many REOs to bury and not enough time
It’s too late
Sleaze gone too far
Sleaze lost the sun
Sleaze come undone
(Doe-doe-doe-doe-doe doe un doe-doe-doe un doe-doe-doe)
(Doe doe-doe-doe-doe un doe-doe-doe doe-doe-doe)
(Doe doe-doe-doe doe doe-doe-doe doe doe)
[break]
It’s too late
Sleaze gone too far
Sleaze lost the sun
Sleaze come undone
Greece didn’t know what she was headed for
And when the EC found what she was headed for
It was too late
Sleaze come undone
TPTB built a mountain that was far too high
And then they found out they couldn’t fly
Mama, it was too late
It’s too late
Sleaze gone too far
Sleaze lost the sun
Sleaze come undone
(No no-no-no-no-no no)
(Doe doe doe-doe)
Bravo, bravo, bravo.
It seems that the graphs are getting around! Anecdotes:
A month ago I was in a discussion with a co-worker. He said that the economy was going to go into the crapper again. I agreed, and began to draw out the Credit-Suisse graph for him from memory. He countered by drawing out the Case-Shiller graph from memory. (he, btw, bought years ago so it doesn’t matter.)
Last week, another co-worker that I only barely know came right to my cubicle. I have the two-hump recast graph up on my wall, and he wanted came over to tell me that he too had not been suckered in by the idiot game. He had lived in Cali and all his co-workers were paying insane prices, so co-worker became a realtor to learn more, and saw the whole bogus charade for what is was. He still rents even though he has just had his second child. He would fit right into the HBB.
Yesterday on a shuttle bus, somebody asked me if the economic recovery was “real.” I told him no. But just that he asked me is significant. They all know that it’s government propping.
The economy is still going to crash like a plane. However, it seems as if the Obama Admin is flying the smoking plane with in-air refueling (gutenberg), circling the runway (volatile DOw) and skimming the tress (Lehman and FB) so that the plane crashes as softly as possible and save as many passengers as possible.
IMO this is about the most important graph, showing why we’re nowhere close to the 9th inning of this thing.
Noting that after the last late 80’s housing bubble home prices didn’t bottom (in inflation-adjusted terms) until 1997 - 3 years after vacancies bottomed, and 7 years after vacancies peaked. If the same timeframe happens that means home prices will bottom in about 2016, in inflation adjusted terms. However being that the scale of this bubble is so much larger, there’s a good chance it’ll take longer to get to the next bottom.
Wildcard of course is inflation itself. Home prices in nominal terms may start back up (for good) before then. However they’d still be a bad investment - you’d be better off in other other inflation hedges.
What Packman said. REAL bears hibernate until it’s time to venture outside.
Agreed, I read that vacant housing units total almost 20 million now, almost 5 million> than the five year average. Seems incredible, but then I look around my neighborhood where I have lived for 25 years. There are at least 5 vacant houses. I cannot recall ever seeing a house vacant in the hood before, other than for transitional periods.
Hehehehe… the illusion is starting to break apart… people can see the shadowy terrors of reality through the crumbling walls of the happy fascade and past the smoke screens being pumped out by the idiots in charge. It’ll be very interesting as this plays out.
I seriously doubt that those in charge care about saving the “passengers” just so long as they get away with their loot.
…I have the two-hump recast graph up on my wall…
Framed, I hope?
Standard litany in the wake of policy disasters: “Things would be so much worse now if we hadn’t acted however we did.”
Too bad we can’t run history again to find out if they are correct.
* The Wall Street Journal
* THE MONEY HUNT
* MAY 14, 2010
Bailout Missed Main Street, New Report Says
Loans to Small Businesses Dropped at Double the Overall Rate, Claims Watchdog Group; ‘Lending Is Not Springing Back’
By EMILY MALTBY
Government funding to U.S. banks has done little to ease the credit crunch for small businesses—and the situation doesn’t seem to be improving, according to a new report.
The value of large banks’ loans to small businesses shrank 9% between 2008 and 2009, more than double the 4.1% drop for overall lending, said a report released Thursday by the Congressional Oversight Panel, a group set up to oversee funds allocated by the federal government’s Troubled Asset Relief Program.
“Big banks pulled back on everyone, but they pulled back harder on small businesses,” said Elizabeth Warren, chairwoman of the oversight panel, in a discussion with reporters.
The U.S. Treasury Department’s TARP programs, launched during the depths of the financial meltdown, didn’t improve access to credit, the report claims.
“Treasury never required banks to lend their new money,” said Ms. Warren.
The squeeze on small-business credit “has been and remains a serious economic challenge,” said Gene Sperling, counselor to Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner, in an interview. “There’s also little question that the crisis, the economy and small business lending would have been far worse without the swift and significant financial rescue efforts.”
…
Seems to me that small business lending would have been much better served by capitalizing a federal Small Business Bank that was willing to roll over loans for small businesses instead of propping up the big banks.
Let the behemoths die. Break them up into smaller banks and sell them off.
Small banks loan to small businesses, neither have much political clout. And besides small business are having such a tough time surviving, their ability to meet even moderately rigorous lending standards is nil.
That’s why you set up the federal one. If lending to small businesses is on the rocks and it’s so important that it’s worth wasting hundreds of billions on, why not waste the billions on ACTUALLY LOANING THEM MONEY.
capitalizing a federal Small Business Bank
That would keep Rush busy for a month.
“Government takeover of the banking industry.”
“Socialized banking.”
“Loan rationing.”
“Public Option Bank.”
“Socialism/Communism.”
If we’re lucky, it’d give him a coronary.
They would have died, if nature/gravity/mathematics had been allowed to run their course.
Things might have been worse (and that’s debatable, IMO), but “worse” would have had the benefit of purging the system
* The Wall Street Journal
* THE MONEY HUNT
* APRIL 15, 2010
Real-Estate Bust Hurts Lending for Little Guys
By EMILY MALTBY
Since the mortgage meltdown, business owners can no longer reliably count on homes or commercial properties to secure financing.
Even as some segments of the economy bounce back, the lagging pace of improvement in the real-estate market continues to hamper owners’ efforts at landing credit. “As the big guys are doing better, people ask, why not the smaller firms? Well, this is a huge part of the reason,” says William Dennis, Jr., a senior research fellow at the National Federation of Independent Business in Washington.
Because business owners used real estate to support financing endeavors in a variety of ways, the subprime crisis hit Main Street particularly hard as it rippled through the credit markets. Before the real-estate bubble burst, home and business properties were a reliable source of collateral for many businesses.
And even those that were ineligible for a traditional bank loan could often draw capital from home values by writing loans against home equity. Unlike traditional loans, home equity loans and lines of credit are determined by the appraised value of the home, minus the mortgage, and are not issued on the basis of credit history or credit scores.
Experts such as Mr. Dennis say it will be a long time before real estate becomes a dependable borrowing mechanism again. Part of the problem, he says, is the inability to define what is normal, given the surge in property values that happened for years leading up to the meltdown. In August 2007, the Discover Small Business Watch survey showed that 30% of respondents tapped home loans for funding. Returning to those levels, he says, is doubtful.
Probably 10% “of those who historically qualified to use homes to gain capital could qualify for a similar loan today,” says Rob Grosser, president of Luxury Mortgage Corp., a residential mortgage banking firm in Stamford, Conn.
…
“Experts” such as Mr. Dennis say it will be a long time before real estate becomes a dependable borrowing mechanism again.”
What planet is this guy from?
“Part of the problem, he says, is the inability to define what is normal, given the surge in property values that happened for years leading up to the meltdown.”
Does the concept of housing tracking inflation (the fake CPI stats) and incomes, mean anything to this so called expert? (I need an aspirin.)
It looks to me like the eye of the toxic debt hurricane that hit shore in fall 2008 is past us now — just in time for the warmup to the fall 2010 U.S. election season.
“Who will bail out the countries that bailed out the world’s corporations?”
Isn’t that where the fiatsco printing presses come into the game? Kind of explains gold hitting its all time high this week, too. Maybe the Chicago guys were right, after all, on that rational expectations thingee?
May 14, 2010, 12:01 a.m. EDT
The second debt storm
Who will bail out the countries that bailed out the world’s corporations?
By Alistair Barr, MarketWatch
SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) — The financial crisis never really went away.
The debt mountain that brought down some of the world’s biggest banks and dragged the international financial system to the brink of disaster has simply shifted to governments. Now, it’s threatening countries around the globe and if left unchecked could rip the very fabric of Europe’s economic system and wreck economic recoveries in the U.S., China and Latin America.
The impact on markets has been severe. The euro has slumped more than 12% against the dollar since the sovereign debt crisis flared in southern Europe. Gold has marched to new highs as investors seek a safe haven and, perhaps most alarming, it is now more expensive to buy insurance against national default than it is to insure against corporate failure.
“The sovereign debt crisis spun out of control in the past week, and we see no easy way to resolve it,” said Madeline Schnapp, director of macroeconomic research at TrimTabs Investment Research.
Some investors and analysts are increasingly concerned that governments may be no more capable of repaying their debts than the banks and insurance companies they saved. And, they warn, if a major country comes close to default, it could trigger a financial meltdown that would eclipse the panic that followed the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers in 2008.
The world has seen sovereign debt crises before. Latin America, Africa and Asia have all experienced upheavals sparked by excessive debt. These crises were all accompanied by stunted economic growth, inflation and weak stock market returns, which make it even harder to pay off debts. As investors and government officials ponder the current state of affairs, they see ominous signs that the developed world may be facing a similarly bleak future.
“The problem of the western world is that we have too much debt,” said Daniel Arbess, who manages the Xerion investment strategy at Perella Weinberg Partners. “Rather than reducing our debt, we’ve been moving it from one balance sheet to another.”
“All we’re doing is shifting chairs on the deck of the Titanic,” he added.
…
The choices: years of high inflation or mass default.
The fun part is that since wages won’t keep up with runaway inflation (if anything, unemployment will increase as inflation increases), the inflation option still ends with default, just in a somewhat different and delayed fashion.
Gee - ya think?
I called this about 3 years ago - that we wouldn’t see a lessening of debt, just a shifting of it from the private to the public sector. And that’s exactly what’s happening.
Unfortunately public sector debt is a *lot* harder to reduce, especially when the private sector is already so tapped out. Back in the 1950’s we also had huge public debt (WW2), but it was reduced (in GDP terms) by virtue of the very strong economy. Ain’t no strong economy coming to rescue the feds this time.
I say massive inflation is ahead of us. Massive stagflation is the same as massive inflation, but with no jobs and slow growth. That was how it was in the 70s and gold went from $35 to $800.
But note the UK is beginning a bunch of austerity measures including spending cuts. The U.S. is going to have to do the same sooner or later. The party of entitlements will be no more in a few years.
Are your referring to the capital gains party or the Cayman Islands party?
The governments’ answers to this financial crisis has been like everything else - kick the can down the road. It helps the current generation of politicians stay in office. Also, voters are also going to be loathe to vote themselves austerity. By the time the chickens really do come home to roost, the situation will be too far gone, and politicians can plausibly claim this was previous generations’ faults, and don’t blame them.
A society cannot be both ignorant and free. We vote for the clowns that continue the elaborate kabuki.
Just heard that lumber prices (commodity) have dropped 18% since home-buyer tax credit expired two weeks ago. !!! Do you think there could be a correlation?
Here is a link to the chart:
http://futures.tradingcharts.com/chart/LS/50
pretty significant if you ask me…
Is anyone in the mood to date Cinderella’s stepsister?
Commodities Corner
Myra P. Saefong
May 14, 2010, 7:00 a.m. EDT
Gold’s ‘ugly sister’ gets a second look
Silver sparkles as gold plays fairy godmother
By Myra P. Saefong, MarketWatch
TOKYO (MarketWatch) — Investors are finally giving gold’s “ugly sister” a second look.
Silver’s gains in recent months have significantly outpaced gold’s, with silver climbing around 30% since early February, compared with gold’s nearly 17% price gain.
…
Silver, AKA “The restless metal”…
I have a some. Buy it only if you can sleep well at night no matter what.
Rio - shoot me an email offline if you would….I’d like to get you to try out a change to the JT Extension that addresses your feedback from the other day.
Thinks of all that money they wasted trying to prop up malinvestments like houses and the share prices and debts of companies that should have filed bankruptcy. From: (MarketWatch) — The financial crisis never really went away.
The debt mountain that brought down some of the world’s biggest banks and dragged the international financial system to the brink of disaster has simply shifted to governments. Now, it’s threatening countries around the globe and if left unchecked could rip the very fabric of Europe’s economic system and wreck economic recoveries in the U.S., China and Latin America.
The impact on markets has been severe. The euro has slumped more than 12% against the dollar since the sovereign debt crisis flared in southern Europe. Gold has marched to new highs as investors seek a safe haven and, perhaps most alarming, it is now more expensive to buy insurance against national default than it is to insure against corporate failure.
Holy flippin’ condos Batman!
There’s a 1 BDRM about a block from me that sold after foreclosure last year for just over $50,000. It’s now back on the market for a little over $200,000!
Talk about having the audacity of hope! The flips around here weren’t even that egregious in 2005.
Looks like the ingredients for RE flipping fraud are back in place, this time with the taxpayer (Fannie backer) taking the hit.
Yep - the only problem with the original Bubble was that there was a risk that a crook could lose money. Now, with all the toxic junk put on the back of the taxpayers, the Bubble can return - joy?!
The taste for the sweet nectar of a SINGLE TRANSACTION deposit seldom wanes…
Buy it for $50K, put it on the market for $200K, accept a lowball offer of $150K (suckers are born every day) and walk with $100K.
Anyone here get the sense that we are back to having stock market declines on Fridays, because everyone is afraid of bad market moving news coming out over the weekend?
Yes.
I’m also getting the sense that we are on the verge of stock market meltdown #2 of this recession. Anyone else feeling this way?
Mainly it’s based on -
- The expiration of the tax credit and MBS purchases is certainly going to hurt the housing market in the coming months - probably badly so. I think people see this - if not already then they will so, and we’re in for another significant dip in housing prices. This is going to really freak people out.
- A lot of bullets have been spent in fighting the crisis already, both on the housing market side and the sovereign debt side - stimulus 1 and 2, tax credits, TARP, TALF, MBS purchases, EU/IMF bailouts. Yeah a lot of these bullets can be re-used, by printing more money, but to a great extent that’s just not politically feasible any more. I think people also see this, with the conclusion that we’re in for a bunch of our own austerity measures in the near future, and the economy will suffer for it (in the short/medium term at least).
- The stock market of course has had a huge rebound the past year, back really into bubble territory again.
Prediction - we’re back below 10,000 again by the end of May. Quite possibly down to 9,500 or so. After that - who knows.
Kinda a surprised me it dipped below 1150 so quickly again. The headlines are getting wackier too. Our friends in the financial press are going to need straitjackets soon.
“The stock market of course has had a huge rebound the past year, back really into bubble territory again.”
Right — and the players all know this, and just waiting for the signal that the last sucker has bought and it’s time to get out.
Someone asked me yesterday if the stock market was getting weaker. I replied it was getting stronger — closer to fair value, the point at which positive returns may be expected going forward.
Exactly.
The Market Makers are ready for the crash. Now, they are just trying to draw in the last dupes to be fleeced before they crash the market again. Then, it’ll be easier to try to ask for more Bailouts.
What is “fair value?”
I’ll admit that I moved some stock from large-cap to mid cap last month.
Stock, I think, are going to be just like housing. The smaller, older, well-placed quality product has experienced its drops already. It’s the government supported jumbo in bad neighborhoods (like, say, a mile or two radius from Battery Park) that still has far to fall. You just have invest in one while avoiding the other.
I’m starting to feel the hand of the PPT coming on - or maybe it’s like my buddy says: greed is kicking in at this morning’s lower prices and traders are buying. It’s this fantastic balance of greed and fear. Traders were really fearful this morning and then prices got so low their greed overcame their fear.
The last half hour will be amusing. PPT rally or black swan?
Nicolas Sarkozy threatened to pull France out of the euro zone unless other members promised to help Greece at the crucial meeting of ministers in Brussels last Friday, according to a report in Spain’s El Pais.
Details of the meeting were apparently revealed by Spain’s Prime Minister Jose Luis Rodriguez Zapatero as he met behind closed-doors with Socialist party leaders on Wednesday.
An unnamed source at that meeting relayed Zapatero’s account that at one point in Brussels, Sarkozy “banged his fist on the table and threatened to leave the euro, which obliged [German Chancellor] Angela Merkel to bend and reach an agreement.”
MarketWatch: Euro hits 17-month low…
MarketWatch: Monday
Germany marches on France….details on the 5 0′clock news.
Is there any truth to the new rumor that the Government botched its sale of Citi stock, causing the “fat-finger” plunge in the Dow?
That should be pretty easy to trace…
don’t investigate the “fat finger” investigate who got rich off the “fat finger”.
http://ampedstatus.com/the-financial-oligarchy-reigns-democracys-death-spiral-from-greece-to-the-united-states?source=patrick.net
This guy has an interesting take on the Thursday melt down and previous large down days, and what was occuring on the political scene on the same day. His thesis is that the gang of 6 banks trading desks, the real source of liquidity in today’s HFT market, simply turn of the buy side of thier programs for a while to send a political message to the PTB’s not to pee on thier bush. The timings of the downturns vs. the political debates is certainly interesting.
Interesting you brought that up, pressboard. I remember when Treasury announced it was going to sell it. I couldn’t quite figure out why the advanced notice. Why telegraph it?
LOWDEN, Wash. – Try to be a wine connoisseur in Dickinson, N.D.
Gordon and Sandee Schnell had a hard time until the state changed its rules in 2001 and allowed wineries to buy permits to ship directly to residents — one case of wine per person, per month.
But now Congress is considering legislation that could limit wineries’ ability to sell and ship directly to consumers. The wholesale distributors who proposed the legislation say it will keep wine from minors, limit alcohol consumption and ensure states control sales.
A BS regulation designed to enrich wholesale distributors over producers of wine.
Whining about wine!
I agree, however, that it’s B.S. Wholesalers who don’t like it can refuse to carry the wineries that also do direct sales. It’s not like they don’t have an option of ‘retribution’ there.
Congress is FORBIDDEN to control interstate commerce in alcoholic beverages by section 2 of the 21st Amendment (Repeal of Prohibition). Since the only reasonable power Congress has to pass most laws is the “Commerce Clause”, this removal of the reach of the Commerce Clause means that Congress has no authority to regulate alcoholic beverages whatsoever.
Not that Congress pays much attention to the Constitution anyway…..
Euro falls to 123.35. Selloff in equities intensifies.
It was 1.21 when we took our trip to Italy, land of most of my ancestors.
Now my wife wants a make-good trip to Ireland. Burn baby burn!
(We may not go because I am worried about being trapped by the volcano).
Millions of jobs that were cut won’t likely return
By CHRISTOPHER S. RUGABER The Associated Press
Posted: 1:13 p.m. Thursday, May 13, 2010
WASHINGTON — Fewer construction workers will be needed. Don’t expect as many interior designers or advertising copywriters, either. Retailers will get by with leaner staffs.
The economy is strengthening. But millions of jobs lost in the recession could be gone for good.
And unlike in past recessions, jobs in the beleaguered manufacturing sector aren’t the only ones likely lost forever. What sets the Great Recession apart is the variety of jobs that may not return.
That helps explain why economists think it will take at least five years for the economy to regain the 8.2 million jobs wiped out by the recession — longer than in any other recovery since World War II.
It means that even as the economy strengthens, more Americans could face years out of work. Already, the percentage of the labor force unemployed for six months or longer is 4.3 percent. That’s the highest rate on records dating to 1948.
Behind the trend are the cutbacks businesses made in the recession to make up for a loss of customers. To sustain earnings, they became more productive: They found ways to produce the same level of goods or services with fewer workers. Automation, global competition and technological efficiencies helped solidify the trend.
Diminished home equity and investment accounts have made shoppers more cautious, too. And their frugality could endure well into the recovery. That’s why fewer retail workers, among others, will likely be needed.
That helps explain why economists think it will take at least five years for the economy to regain the 8.2 million jobs wiped out by the recession — longer than in any other recovery since World War II.
Now factor in populatin growth and you get the picture.
No improvement in unemployment.
Bubble jobs are gone, people who sold stuff to the bubble employed will sell less stuff. Handing cash to banks will not fix this problem. The reality is we have three choices.
1. Allow 10-20% of our populatin to be permanently unemployed with no means of support = riots, crime, social decay.
2. Add another 10-20% of our population to the welfare rolls for life = Destroy work ethic, and truely become a welfare state.
3. Rebuild our infrastructure and energy efficiency.
I vote for #3.
4. War with very high casualties.
3 is the one option that won’t increase the concentration of wealth and power at the top, so it will not happen. I’m betting on #2 happening, personally.
I’m predicting 2 evolving into 1.
I predict an attempt at 3, then 2, then 1, then 4.
(unfortunately)
#3……I don’t know about you, but I don’t see unemployed realtors, low level banksters, residential construction workers, flippers, candle shop proprieters, dog groomers, Hummer/Excursion/Suburban/Tahoe salesman designing and rebuilding our infrastructure and researching and developing new sources of clean energy.
#2……Would be the smart thing for the PTB to do. Less disruption of the status quo.
but I’m picking #1……maybe not nationally, but for sure regionally. Why? Because the government and banksters are too stupid to do what’s right.
Detroit Shrinks Itself, Historic Homes and All ~ WSJ
DETROIT—Wrecking crews are preparing to tear down a landmark 5,000-square-foot house in the posh neighborhood of Palmer Woods in the coming weeks, a sign that Detroit is finally getting serious about razing thousands of vacant and abandoned structures across the city.
In leveling 1860 Balmoral Drive, the boyhood home of one-time presidential candidate and former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney, Detroit is losing a small piece of its history. But the project is part of a demolition effort that is just now gaining momentum and could help define the city’s future.
Detroit is finally chipping away at a glut of abandoned homes that has been piling up for decades, and intends to take advantage of warm weather and new federal funding to demolish some 3,000 buildings by the end of September.
Mitt Romney’s boyhood home is among 3,000 derelict structures Detroit plans to demolish by the end of September as it attacks blight and crime.
Mayor Dave Bing has pledged to knock down 10,000 structures in his first term as part of a nascent plan to “right-size” Detroit, or reconfigure the city to reflect its shrinking population.
When it’s all over, said Karla Henderson, director of the Detroit Building Department, “There’s going to be a lot of empty space.”
Mr. Bing hasn’t yet fully articulated his ultimate vision for what comes after demolition, but he has said entire areas will have to be rebuilt from the ground up. For now, his plan calls for the tracts to be converted to other uses, such as parks or farms.
Having owned an old home (1890) - that is very sad to see.
If it wasn’t for the crime and horrendous job situation, I’d seriously consider moving there.
(Of course that’s kind of like saying “if it wasn’t for the lack of oxygen and -100 degree temperatures humans could populate the moon”)
If it wasn’t for the horrendous job situation the crime never would have tended to or been allowed to get so out of hand, and the house would have been a valuable asset and maintained accordingly. So what lead to the horrendous job situation?
Well that put an end to this fellows shoplifting career…
CVS Shoplifter Death Now An ‘Active’ Investigation
Pressure Escalating On Police, Prosecutors To Probe Circumstances Of Homicide CHICAGO CBS 2
No one’s denying what he might have done was wrong: allegedly stuffing crayons and toothpaste into his pockets and shoplifting.
But the fact that Anthony Kyser was killed after he was caught, and allegedly choked by a store employee — with an off-duty sheriff’s officer watching it happen — continues to hit a nerve.
Chicago congressman Bobby Rush calls it a case of political hot potato. First he sent a letter about Kyser to the Cook County State’s Attorney’s Office. He says that office put it off on police. So he sent a letter to the police, accusing the department of ignoring a homicide. Kyser’s ex-wife believes that to be true.
Ann Marie Balboa said she wants justice served.
“I want the man that killed my ex-husband to pay for what he did,” she said.
It was Saturday morning at a Chicago CVS Pharmacy. Police say Kyser shoplifted. A store employee went after him and made a citizen’s arrest – putting him in a choke hold. Published reports say Kyser resisted. He later died. The medical examiner ruled it a homicide.
The police initially said it was accident. But the department late Thursday issued a statement saying it has an “active” investigation open.
Dying while committing a crime should automatically be a non-homicide situation.
That way we can mow down jay-walkers with impunity.
Seriously, though, there should be swaths of crimes, like armed robbery, home invasion, rape, attempted homicide, assault, etc where death of the perpetrator should be ruled ‘accidental’ of ’self defense’ automatically.
I’m not sure if choking a shop lifter to death should qualify. However, homicide is probably a bit stiff. Manslaughter, sure.
Sort of is in Arizona. You claim “self defense” in a shooting, state has to prove you did not. Pretty cool.
It’s a sad thing that burglars can sue for getting injured breaking into your house. Sure, they almost never win, but that sort of thing should be tossed out before it ever requires the homeowner or property owner to show in court.
This kind of stuff only happens in “blue states”. Around here, they get laughed out of court.
Three guys tried to rob a liquor store in Wichita 10-20 years ago. Two of the three ended up with lead poisoning and died. Evidence suggested that one of the was shot in the back while wounded, lying face down on the ground……
No charges filed. Because the DA at the time knew there would be no way in hell they would get a conviction, considering the jury pool.
People around here take “Criminals will be shot; survivors will be prosecuted” seriously.
I always thought survivors were supposed to be shot again…
Property Taxes UP, Soda Tax Out in Philly
New $3.9 billion budget will leave city with only $40 million surplus, concerning the mayor.
If you live in Philadelphia, higher property taxes and a fee for trash pickup may be two things you’ll pay for next year.
Philadelphia City Council approved Mayor Michael Nutter’s $3.9 billion budget for 2011 with a vote Thursday evening.
To fill in a $150 million budget gap, officials made several tax increases, the most notable being a 9.9-percent jump in property taxes, officials told NBC Philadelphia. That increase will only last for two years.
The 9.9 percent temporary tax hike has to get final approval from council next week.
“The 9.9 percent “temporary” tax hike has to get final approval from council next week”.
“Temporary” Riiiiiiight!
No such thing has a temporary tax hike.
Nothing is more permanent than a temporary government program.
How do we restore prosperity in the Western countries?
My 2 cents. Have a tariff on all imports including energy. Have a tariff on all exports including information. Now people will ask how can you tax something like the internet? Easy learn something from China.
The transition will be difficult, but like the “Lion King” Hyenas and Lions can’t coexist in harmony.
I would like to support the Arizona economy by buying something they produce to offset San Francisco’s boycott any suggestions?
Before flaming me for supporting the Arizona law how would you like a human trafficer renting a home next to you?
the reason CA is boycotting AZ is because they know if the law is successful at lessening illegal immigration in AZ…they will just hop on over to CA.
it’s always about the money.
Arizona should say to the illegals: “Go to the places that are sympathetic to your status….like all those places trying to boycott us”. Offer to pay for the bus tickets.
“Worst case scenario” of the illegal-lovers is that the Arizona law reduces crime, and reduces government costs.
I’d like somebody to set up a “Boycott places that are boycotting Arizona” plan.
Seriously.
I live near San Francisco, but don’t ever visit it, so I can’t really boycott it. But if I HAD been planning on taking a trip up there, I would cancel it.
Google within the *ahem* liberal blogs. I think they have some boycotts already set up along those lines.
I think it’s flat out ridiculous for cities to boycott states because of the other state’s laws.
We’re taking a trip to AZ to visit my parents, so I plan on spending at least a LITTLE money while I’m there.
Wow, you gotta stay off the conservative blogs for that search. Foaming at the mouth!
I’m not going to flame you for supporting the Arizona law. I’m going to flame you for supporting taxes and tariffs. Nothing of the sort has ever restored prosperity anywhere.
What about the high taxes on the wealthy during the Eisenhower Admin, which brought prosperity to the middle class?
Wouldn’t tariffs cause people to move production to US to avoid tariffs?
China, India & Brazil got invited to big table with G7/11/13 etc…Because they were going to be the new consumers. When this thing falls apart we will need a method to restore equilibrium. More outsourcing & offshoring isn’t going to create suistainable markets.
Thousands of non-profits could unwittingly lose tax status ~ USA TODAY
Hundreds of thousands of small non-profits, from Little League teams to community soup kitchens, could lose their tax-exempt status on Monday because of an IRS filing requirement.
The 2006 Pension Protection Act included a provision requiring all non-profits to file an annual return with the IRS.
Previously, non-profits with annual revenue of less than $25,000 were excluded. Non-profits that fail to file a return for three consecutive years lose their tax-exempt status. On May 17, the three-year clock runs out for non-profits that haven’t filed a return since 2007.
The Urban Institute estimates that up to 365,000 non-profits could lose their tax-exempt status if they fail to file by Monday. Groups that miss the deadline will have to apply for a new exemption and pay a user fee of up to $850. They could also be liable for taxes on any revenue earned before their exemption is renewed.
The requirement does not apply to churches or church-related operations.
Donors won’t feel the impact right away, says Sarah Hall Ingram, IRS commissioner for tax exempt and government entities. When a non-profit loses its tax exemption, the IRS is required to issue a public notice. Until the notice is published, she says, donations to the organization are still deductible. The IRS doesn’t plan to publish the names of non-profits that lose their exemption until January, Ingram says, “So if somebody gives between now and when the name gets on the public list, the donor is protected.”
Teachers unions warn of 18,000 layoffs without tax hike
H&R Springfield Bureau Friday, May 14, 2010
SPRINGFIELD - Illinois’ two most powerful teachers unions Thursday said that more than 18,000 school layoffs statewide could occur unless lawmakers approve an income tax increase.
Their announcement comes even though the Illinois Senate last week advanced a budget that wouldn’t cut funding for schools.
Still, the unions said, there’s no money to pay for that spending.
“The sad fact is this is a budget that’s really built on quicksand, absent additional revenue,” said Steve Preckwinkle, director of political activities for the Illinois Federation of Teachers.
The state is $1.4 billion behind in payments to schools. Without an income tax hike to solve those cash flow problems, the layoffs may have to continue, said Ken Swanson, Illinois Education Association president.
“It means larger class sizes,” Swanson. “It means schools where music and art won’t be part of the curriculum next year. It means the curtailment of PE.”
Hey Ken Swanson, why don’t you have your rank and file take a pay and benefit cut? I don’t understand the logic of these public employee unions. Unions (public and private) seem to always prefer layoffs and plant closings to any kind of cut in pay and benefits. Unreal…Especially during tough times. Great job looking out for your workers Ken.
“Under democracy one party always devotes its chief energies to trying to prove that the other party is unfit to rule - and both commonly succeed, and are right … The United States has never developed an aristocracy really disinterested or an intelligentsia really intelligent. Its history is simply a record of vacillations between two gangs of frauds.”
-H. L. Mencken (1880-1956)
Excellent quote.
Stocks slammed as euro falls
May 14, 2010
NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) — Stocks slumped Friday on worries that Europe’s economic woes could spread to the United States, while the euro fell to 18-month lows versus the dollar and gold hit fresh records.
Investors dumped stocks and fled to safe-haven areas of the market such as the dollar, gold and government debt.
Hey, The CORPORATIONS have already received a $411 Million insurance payout…How long you figure the CORPORATIONS are going to take to pay for the 11 lost lives + lost incomes…x1 month…x6 months…?????
Erica Werner, Associated Press Writer, On Friday May 14, 2010,
WASHINGTON (AP) — President Barack Obama angrily decried the “ridiculous spectacle” of oil industry officials pointing fingers of blame for the catastrophic spill in the Gulf of Mexico and pledged on Friday to end a “cozy relationship” between the oil industry and federal regulators that he said had extended into his own administration.
Obama said he shared the “anger and frustration” felt by many Americans, and he acknowledged differing estimates about just how disastrous the damage from the leak could become. He said the administration’s response has “always been geared toward the possibility of a catastrophic event.”
Obama slammed BP and other companies responsible for equipment involved in the spill for pointing fingers at each other instead of accepting responsibility.
But he said responsibility rests with the federal government, too, and that oil drilling permits had been granted without appropriate environmental reviews.
“That cannot and will not happen anymore,” Obama said. He announced a new examination of the environmental reviews that must happen before oil and gas development goes forward.
With millions of gallons of oil fouling the fragile Gulf ecosystem after a drilling rig exploded April 20 and later sank, Obama said: “It’s pretty clear that the system failed and it failed badly.” Eleven workers were killed in the accident.
“There is enough responsibility to go around, and all parties should be willing to accept it,” the president said.
He said he would not be satisfied until the leak was stopped, the spill was cleaned up and all claims were paid.
This week executives from three oil companies — BP PLC, which was drilling the well, Transocean, which owned the rig, and Halliburton, which was doing cement work to cap the well — testified on Capitol Hill, each trying to blame the other for what may have caused the disaster. Obama decried that scene.
“I did not appreciate what I considered to be a ridiculous spectacle during the congressional hearings into this matter. You had executives of BP and Transocean and Halliburton falling over each other to point the finger of blame at somebody else,” the president said.
“The American people could not have been impressed with that display, and I certainly wasn’t.”
State to close parks, delay school aid.
NEWS ALBANY BUREAU
ALBANY — New York state is carrying through on its threat to close dozens of parks across the state beginning Monday, and the list includes Woodlawn Beach, Knox Farm and Joseph Davis parks.
In addition, for the third time since December, the Paterson administration said it needs to delay scheduled state aid payments to schools — this time more than $1 billion worth of money that was set to flow to districts on June 1.
Over the objections of lawmakers, the cash-starved state since February has been preparing to close 41 parks and 14 historic sites as a way to cut about $12 million in maintenance and seasonal payroll costs.
“We’ve been taking more of a passive approach,” Eileen Larrabee, a spokeswoman for the state parks department, said of closing the facilities.
That comes to an end Monday, when parks officials will ensure people do not use the affected facilities. Gates will be locked and park police will kick out anyone seen using the shuttered parks, Larrabee said.
Parks officials will ensure parks on the closure list are shuttered to help protect infrastructure, from playground equipment to restroom facilities, as well as to ensure public safety, Larrabee said.
“Parks officials will ensure parks on the closure list are shuttered to help protect infrastructure, from playground equipment to restroom facilities, as well as to ensure public safety, Larrabee said.”
There is one plank style gate preventing vehicles from entering the park slated for closure near us. So is the state going to erect a 9 foot fence around the entire perimeter to keep everyone out or step up patrols? They could just pay for the park to open with the money to do that. In reality they won’t be patrolled.
TTT Sez…
Geithner Says He’s Confident Europe Will ‘Fix’ Debt Crisis
May 14 (Bloomberg) — U.S. Treasury Secretary Timothy F. Geithner said he’s confident European policy makers will contain the continent’s sovereign-debt crisis without harming America’s economy or financial markets.
“Europe has the capacity to manage through this,” Geithner said in an interview today on Bloomberg Television’s “Political Capital With Al Hunt.” “They’ve committed to fix this problem. And again, I think they have the ability to do that, and I think they will.”
Interest rates tumble as investors pour into Treasurys over concerns about European economy May 14, 2010
NEW YORK (AP) — Treasury prices soared Friday, pushing interest rates lower, as investors sought shelter from the latest market turmoil caused by worries over Europe’s economy.
Traders are dumping stocks and other risky assets because of concerns that the deep spending cuts being called for in countries like Greece, Spain and Portugal will slow down a recovery in Europe. The Dow Jones industrial average lost about 170 points and crude oil was down 4 percent.
Currency traders have been selling off euros throughout the week on growing doubts that Europe will be able to grow its economy out of recession and restore confidence in its shared currency, the euro.
Important comment: Paul Volcker, former chairman of the Federal Reserve, long-time associate of the Rockefeller family, advisor to Obama, and head of J. Rothschild, Wolfensohn & Co., has told students at the London School of Economics that the future of the Euro is in doubt. That means it is probably dead.
~~ The demise of the euro is not certain, but its future is definitely in doubt. Rumors are already flying about key European nations abandoning the euro.
Will France return to the franc? Will Germany re-adopt the mark? And on this side of the Atlantic what’s the fate of the U.S. dollar? How long before talk of a gold standard for currency begins in earnest?
it may be shockingly, unexpected bad news weekend.
former chairman of the Federal Reserve, long-time associate of the Rockefeller family, advisor to Obama, and head of J. Rothschild, Wolfensohn & Co.
Those qualifications mean that what he says is intended to drive some form of behavior, it doesn’t mean that what he says is in any way remotely true.
How long before talk of a gold standard for currency begins in earnest?
The problem is existing debt and how to get out from under it. The horse has already left the barn. A gold standard offers no remedy.
The rules of the euro-monetary system are essentially those of a gold standard (debt limits).
A return to sovereign fiat currencies allows countries freedoms to do things they cannot now do while bound by those rules.
Reloading I tell you. S&P cuts ratings on AAA mortgages from July last year.
May 14 (Bloomberg) — Standard & Poor’s cut to junk ratings certain securities, backed by U.S. mortgage bonds, that it granted AAA grades when Credit Suisse Group, Jefferies Group Inc. and Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc sold them last year.
The reductions were among downgrades to 308 classes of so- called re-remics, or re-securitizations, created from 2005 through 2009, the New York-based ratings company said today in a statement. About $150 million of the securities were issued last year, as recently as July, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.
In other housing news….
Saw a new attachment sign (on top of a realtor’s lawn sign) in my neighborhood: “NOT A SHORT SALE”.
I guess people are so annoyed at the delays in short sales that they want to just buy a normal place.
Or they were tired of getting low-balled by people who just assumed…