‘Not The Time To Build Commodity Homes’: Treasure Coast
The Florida press notes a report calling on builders to stop building. “Home construction throughout the Treasure Coast soared in the first quarter, pushing inventory levels to a record high, according to an industry report released Tuesday. The number of starts adds more inventory to an already saturated market for existing single-family homes, said MetroStudy.”
“‘Historically, these are very high figures. They’re actually the highest amount of finished inventory I have ever seen,’ said Brad Hunter, a housing economist for MetroStudy. ‘I think builders should be concerned.’”
“Levels were high in St. Lucie County, with 747 homes started during the first quarter, compared to the 528 during the first quarter of 2005. There were 844 finished vacant homes in the county on March 31.”
“‘This is not the time to build commodity homes unless they (developers) can build them better and/or less expensively than anyone else,’ Hunter said. ‘Speculators have an overabundance of commodity homes, all at competitive prices.’”
“There were 897 homes under construction or finished and vacant in Martin County, about a 14-month supply. Indian River vacant homes rose to 598 units during the first quarter, which drove the inventories to a 13-month supply.”
“Housing experts said the numbers don’t bode well for builders on the Treasure Coast. ‘This is the reason we’re seeing builders offer so much in incentives,’ said Richard Hope, president of Treasure Coast Builders Association. ‘Buyers are seeing a widening of choices, so builders are really having to stand out with their products.’”
“Builders also are competing with investors who want to flip properties they bought at lower prices last year, said Jack McCabe. A stagnating re-sale market isn’t helping builders, he said. ‘Builders who continue to put up spec homes without a signed contract, well, that’s just foolery on their part,’ McCabe said. ‘There has been a dramatic shift in the market since the speculators left the market.’” .
“McCabe said that with sellers no longer able to push up prices, the rental market is changing. He said the growing trend of South Florida re-conversions, apartments converted to condos and put back on the rental market by their investor-owners, has entered the Treasure Coast.”
“‘The Treasure Coast is just saturated with for-sale and for-rent signs. What does that tell us about the reality of market conditions?,’ McCabe said.”
Article on Fl. Keys residents leaving due to housing costs,and ins. premiums….
windstorm rates at the 2005 level of $20.58 per $1,000, still the state’s highest and two to three times as high as the rates in other hurricane-hit counties.Key West resident David Lane and his wife Pam recently listed their home at $1.5 million Their windstorm insurance premium: $12,700.
http://today.reuters.com/news/articlenews.aspx?type=inDepthNews&storyID=2006-05-03T121947Z_01_N21388696_RTRUKOC_0_US-WEATHER-HURRICANES-EXODUS.xml&pageNumber=1&imageid=&cap=&sz=13
This is the first article I recall that made a point of saying builders should halt construction of certain homes. Here are a couple of related links:
‘In yet another sign that the region’s real estate market is faltering, housing starts are falling fast in Palm Beach County — but soaring in the Treasure Coast. In the Treasure Coast, housing starts picked up significantly. In St. Lucie County, where there’s no shortage of lots, starts jumped to 747, up 61 percent from a year ago. Martin County’s starts rose to 161 units, up 13 percent from a year ago.’
‘Palm Beach County’s housing market was due for a slowdown, Hunter said, considering what he calls “inflated” prices for homes and the wave of speculation that washed through the housing market in the past two years.’
‘Orlando economist Hank Fishkind predicts the shakeout will take more than a year. ‘I think it’s going to be longer than that,’ Fishkind said. ‘In Florida, we’re going to see some slowing of population growth, so that will magnify the impact.’
A letter to the editor:
‘ Earlier this week, and many times in the past several months, you have chosen to run front-page articles on the sales slowdown in the local real estate industry and promoting the concept of a coming ‘bust.’ A self-fulfilling prophecy, no doubt.’
Regarding the letter to the editor:
Looks like someone is too sensitive there. Speculator, I assume, or a homeowner expecting to cash in big time and is seeing his “hard earned” equity withering away. My sympathies, NOT!
Are you kidding me. He says tha Liereah is the voice of reason?!? So many idiots, so little time.
Isn’t it interesting that someone has to tell the builders to stop their mad rush to build still more houses when the market is so obviously glutted? What drives them to keep building under these circumstances? Some say that the public companies fear slowing because Wall Street would penalize their stock prices if they did. One wonders… what stock prices? The builders stock have been sliding for months now in spite of the frequent attacks to scare the short sellers into buying. Those attacks are less and less successful, by the way.
Looking for an opportunity? Try selling short the big builders.
Buying Puts is usually easier for small investors than shorting stocks. You don’t have to worry about a short squeeze and you can leverage up a bit to enhance returns.
The builders are still making gobs of money on every sale. They are playing the incentive game because they don’t want to actually lower prices and spook the market. Eventually they will decide to lower prices when their incentives fail to attract enough buyers. Given the huge margins the builders have I am sure they can slash prices a lot before they start to actually lose money on a per sale basis.
“Given the huge margins the builders have I am sure they can slash prices a lot before they start to actually lose money on a per sale basis.”
This is the oft-repeated mantra about why HB valuations are so sticky at their recent levels: Builders can stay profitable in a softening market. This argument overlooks a number of reasons why builder stocks are currently overvalued relative to recent developments.
Here are a few of the holes in this argument which are worth mentioning, and I am sure there are other reasons I am overlooking:
1) Balance sheet inventory
If you look at the balance sheets of any of the big builders over the past six years, it becomes apparent that the inventory item has typically swollen by large multiples. This apparently reflects bubble pricing of land — what builders hold as inventory. As bubble pricing ends (as it is currently), this item will shrink back to normalcy.
2) For-sale inventory
In case you have not read any of Ben’s myriad posts on this topic, it is at an all-time high. Inside section C of today’s Wall Street Journal (buried somewhere inside — maybe p. 3) was an article on the housing slowdown. I believe they mentioned something like 550K new homes in current “inventory”, and last time I checked, many markets formerly known as “frothy” (like San Diego) had steadily growing inventory of used homes for sale as well (about six times as high as early 2004, which was the bottom of this cycle).
3) Construction Costs
Given burgeoning fuel costs, low unemployment, draining of manpower for Fed govt projects like the Iraq war and the rebuilding of NO, and a pending bill in Congress which would make it a felony to employ illegal immigrant labor (the kind which runs construction machinery), there is a stiff headwind on the cost side to builder profit margins.
4) Lending constraints
Underwriting standards which permit giving away money to people who will never be able to repay it must currently be at a century-long low ebb, and this cannot last for long before either regulatory oversight or a banking crisis intervenes to end it. Even with complete abandonment of lending standards, steadily rising mortgage interest rates in-and-of-themselves have priced last year’s marginal buyer out of the market for homes at last year’s prices. So the builders are competing by offering incentives to the tune of $100K in super-discounts. That sounds like a pretty severe squeeze on profits from the revenue side.
5) Long-term bond yields and stock valuations
Don’t look now, but the 10-year treasury bond yield has gone up by 90 BPS since mid-January 2006, and shows no sign of slowing its upward tear (along with other inflation signals like rising gold, oil, and foreign currency prices). This spike in the inflation premium portion of the risk-free rate implies an immediate drop in the fundamental value of future profits for any company, EVEN ASSUMING THOSE PROFITS ARE NOT IMPACTED BY THE HIGHER BOND YIELDS. Since HB profit streams are negatively correlated with long-term bond yields (which are themselves almost perfectly correlated with mortgage lending rates), a sharp correction upwards in long-bond yields implies a sharp downwards correction in fundamental HB stock values, which is so far not reflected in prices, maybe thanks to corporate share buybacks or short squeezes, or whatever.
6) Fear factor / deflation psychology
News that those who bought new McMansions six months back could have waited till now and paid $100K less must strike at least a little bit of precautionary sentiment into the hearts and minds of prospective buyers.
4) Lending constraints
Underwriting standards which permit giving away money to people who will never be able to repay it must currently be at a century-long low ebb, and this cannot last for long before either regulatory oversight or a banking crisis intervenes to end it. Even with complete abandonment of lending standards, steadily rising mortgage interest rates in-and-of-themselves have priced last year’s marginal buyer out of the market for homes at last year’s prices. So the builders are competing by offering incentives to the tune of $100K in super-discounts. That sounds like a pretty severe squeeze on profits from the revenue side.
I think that lending tightening will be the straw that breaks this camel’s back.
I’m not really sure of the margins. Most use FIFO accounting, which means they are now expensing land bought years ago. DHI has a 4 year inventory, IIRC.
Mostly they need cash. They must pay back interest on debt used to buy land. Even if they take book losses, it can still make sense to create houses; it’s the only way of monetizing the land, other than selling it.
After all, if they don’t, what do they do? Just shut down? Why should they be the ones to try to ameliorate the surplus? The # of houses they add are maybe 2% a year to the total pool of houses. They won’t stop making houses until the marginal cost of putting a house on a piece of land is barely below the price they can sell the new house at.
Nicely stated. I am guessing that point in time (when marginal profit of building nears zero) will come sooner rather than later, if the WSJ’s statement that over 500K new homes are currently “in inventory” proves true.
I’m fairly certain that the “industry report” that the first paragraph of the article refers to is the NAR or some other closely related group. It’s so sad….with so many realtors all averaging 6 sales per year (per the Freakonomics book).. they are the ones with the most to lose if the commissions they make start going down drastically. For clarification, that’s not sad like when your dog dies sad, it’s more the sad you feel like when Martha went to jail.
“It’s so sad….with so many realtors all averaging 6 sales per year (per the Freakonomics book)”
Even though the profit per transaction is very high, the free entry condition makes this a tough economy in which to prosper as either a Realtor (TM) or a drug dealer
Stucco, I see that both you and I have already gone down the road to becoming drug dealers before changing our minds when faced with the economics
They can probably still make money given comparable comps. Cheap land plus house = profit, even if the price is 20% less than last year. What else can they do with the cheap land they bought way back when?
Exactly,…If the major HB’s are offering $75-100K reductions, then you know they still have a fat margin. Not until this market stops will the real reductions begin. Housing sales numbers are still up here ,and there so the discounts ,and upgrade offerings are still working…..
Bush Administration once again ahead of the curve: Per NationalMortgageNews:
What is going on in the housing market is “not all that clear,” according to the president’s chief economic adviser, who says he believes the economy will be less dependent in the future on high levels of consumer consumption and residential construction for growth.
“the economy will be less dependent in the future on high levels of consumer consumption and residential construction for growth. ”
Actually the primary driver for negative GDP growth will be the contraction in consumer spending and residential construction of the bursting credit bubble.
the continuing buildout on the treasure coast is a function of how long the process of construction takes. it’s not like a small builder went out last week, bought a lot and will have the house ready next week. he/she had to acquire/option the lot (s), draw plans, arrange financing, get estimates and permits. for larger builders the process is even longer. that puts them in the time tested position of watching the market implode as they are full steam ahead on their construction.
Yes. North of the Central Valley town of Merced in California is a planned community with a 15-year build out horizon. Millions have gone into infrastructure, planning and permits. Hundreds of homes are in various stages of completion, and the current market is simply a business risk.
What is this future ghost town called?
(actually 15 years from now might be the peak of the next bubble)
You guys are glossing over the new word of the day, “Foolery” soon to be popular.
I.E. Suzanne researched the commission avoidance schemes and determined them to be Foolery.
a relative just sold a house in FL
listed $ 440k took $ 335K
= wow
Yeah, I was talking to a friend who lives in Florida that has been flipping homes for a few years. He has been trying to sell his current home in Miami for almost a year with no luck and says people are reducing prices left and right, a neighbor of his reduced his price 150K on a 550K home. But here is the kicker , my friend still insists that RE will go up at least 5-7% this year. Huh? I just played along-why get into an argument?
That’s almost a 25% haircut ($330 would have been 25% exactly)…
Flat - 24% off — I’ve seen a number of these in Central Florida in the past couple of months, approx. 20% off. They are just about the only ones that sell quickly. Important to note that the starting price has to be within sight of comps — a $500K (today’s comp) house that is jacked up to $800K and reduced to $600K is unlikely to sell. A few fools still try this, or even worse, raise the price if it doesn’t sell at “X.”
Old greed dies hard.
Oh yes. Quite a lot of these greedy fools here in Newton, Mass. Can’t sell their houses last year even after several price reductions. Now they are back on the market at higher prices. Indeed RE only goes up.
“‘This is not the time to build commodity homes unless they (developers) can build them better and/or less expensively than anyone else,’ Hunter said. ‘Speculators have an overabundance of commodity homes, all at competitive prices.
Sure it is. What you are building now is the affordable houses that you need and they will be sold at affordable prices.
Exactly! People always complain about the lack of affordable housing. We should have it in spades especially if the builders keep going with their developments!
Free swimming pools for everyone!!
Free Florida swampland for everyone (but lots of it is currently “under water”, at least figuratively speaking)…
I think people underestimate the forces at hand when one is a PUBLIC homebuilder.
Sure, some of the land they bought at bargain basement prices, and can afford to drop prices on the finished house due to their early land purchase. But I doubt it’s that simple.
These businesses are CASH FLOW businesses. And their cash flow can make or BREAK them. It’s not like they go out with cash and buy land, then put up a house and sell it, and take that cash to buy more land.
Instead, they take out tremendous debt and also issue stock to raise cash. They thus must continue to be cash flow positive in order to maintain the ability to raise cash through debt and stock issuance. If their earnings go down… or worse negative… then they are seriously hampered. They must always have enough cash to service their debt, and also have enough left over for wages, new land acquisition (at current prices by the way), equipment, and so on.
Even short term fluctuations can affect their debt rating, which could kill them.
Look at GM… GM is nearing BK and they started with like 26 billion dollars in CASH! How many of the HBs have that kind of cash?????
I think they probably “need” a certain sales price to keep their business operating, and I betcha it’s higher than we are thinking…
and as others have mentioned, a lot of this inventory coming on line now was put into moting years ago… can’t just scrap it now. The choice is : scrap it now and get NOTHING, or keep going and maybe get something out of the deal, if nothing else hopefully the loss will be better.
Just a few thoughts, poorly elucidated but hope you get the drift.
clouseau
(AG Edwards commenting on home inventory this morning)
11:22 New home inventories, add insult to injury - AG Edwards
AG Edwards says they have learned that new home sales that are subsequently cancelled are not moved back into the govt’s inventory estimates. Given the increase in cancellation rates disclosed by the builders in the March qtr (high-single digit % delta or worse for the most part), firm believes this worsens an already bleak supply situation. Also, the NAHB recently released results from a survey of 500 single-family builders taken in Feb with regard to inventory. Firm believes this adds further credence to their thesis that cancellations are likely happening later in the build process, thereby exacerbating the vertical inventory problem.
WOW! Where is the investigation.
What is the “vertical inventory problem”?
too many high rise condos.
“South Florida,” he said, ”is working off of a totally new economic model than any of us have ever experienced in the past” according to a realtor who predicted that a land shortage will support higher prices indefinitely.”
- New York Times, Trading Places: Real Estate Instead of Dot-Coms, 3/25/05
I’m jealous. I read about all these drops in Florida and southern California while the markets in Oregon still increase. When do I get to have the fun of watching my neighbors’ houses drop? Or does the flood of fleeing Californians prop up the Oregon cities indefinitely?
Patience! OR will follow CA’s correction with a time lag…
Portland is not quite counter cyclical to Cal.
There has been a pretty constant stream of equity nomads bidding up PDX RE.
I would give it 12 months after CA RE locked up and you should see a slowdown.
12 mos = a time lag…
As Californians get more pinched are they even more likely to bail out and keep Oregon high? I’m not familiar with the Portland market, but everything near Klamath Falls, Eugene, Bend, etc. is still booming.
I think Oregons going to have it really bad. The mass-migration of Californians is about to dry up in a big way. Sure, it was great to cash out your equity and buy in Oregon for all sorts of life-style reasons. This was 95% of Oregon’s RE explosion. California migrants. However, as the implosion begins, equity wealth is erased, foreclosures rise and prices in CA slide, Oregon will not be seeing anymore CA license plates lined up to buy property.
I’m seeing a lot of slowing in Portland. We are not seeing a lot of dramatic appreciation by any means. A lot of reduced prices and houses relisted due to long DOM. The RMLS which has been hovering around 7100 for most of the winter is now up to 8100! Friends of mine selling a 1500sq ft loft in the hot Pearl District initially offered it on the market 3 weeks ago for $725k, which comparable lofts had sold for in the winter. They got no response and lowered it to $675k. They received a lower-ball offer for $640k and countered at $660 and sold it on Sunday. I am seeing lots of things in the Portland market that make me hopeful!
“‘This is not the time to build commodity homes unless they (developers) can build them better and/or less expensively than anyone else,’ Hunter said. ‘Speculators have an overabundance of commodity homes, all at competitive prices.’”
What exactly is a “commodity home”? I have used this term before myself, but have not seen it in the press until now.
My thought is that tract housing developments which consist of cookie-cutter domiciles (whether condo-conversions, high-rise condos, low-rise townhomes, or identical, supersized, closely-spaced, ugly-brown McMansions) all qualify as commodity homes during an inventory crash, as the prevalence of identical houses for sale at price spreads in the neighborhood of $100K (where price spread might be measured by the SD of listing prices for a large number of identical homes on the market) tends to result in the sale of only the lowest priced commodity, continuously “screwing up the comps” going forward.
This is indeed a market in transition. The 2006 positionings by RE hacks, sellers/buyer, and builders is all based on last years knowledge. Five years of good times has polluted the common sense of many. The lack of sound data on the future of the housing market in this era of ‘this time it’s different’ makes for great uncertainty. My guess: a long year of increasing concern, far higher interest and mortgage rates, massive inventory, and stressed owners reaching the end of their ARM reset limits. Next spring comes a once-in-a-lifetime event: a total housing meltdown. But no sooner than that. We have a way to go. Like 50 laps into the the Indy 500, just set back and wait for the next crash while the race goes on and on.
I guess you are a critic of the Lucas critique?
Lucas makes the mistake of thinking that everyone else is as smart as he is rather than as dumb as we actually are.
Plunk your magic twanger Froggie.
I remember that!
This is my inaugural post.
First let me say i am amazed at the intellect of posters on this blog.
I am living in a condo right next to the financial district in downtown toronto.
It is 1400 sq ft.
It rents for 2200 all expenses in less phone and sat tv.
The building was built in 1991 the peak of the real estate craze in toronto last cycle.
It was purchased by my present landlord for 525000 in 1991
Today similar units are selling in this configuration for 375k 15 years later.
Buyer beware to all condo buyers.
Welcome. There are indeed some very knowledgeable people here.
I’ve said it before…IMHO, the HBs know more than most of us about the housing market. They held back inventory on the way up (small phase releases, “running out of land” myth propagation & lottery hype) to juice thier profits. When the ball starts rolling down the other side of the hill, they will flood the market with inventory because (here’s the clincher) WE WILL NOT BE SEEING THE PRICES AGAIN FOR MANY, MANY YEARS TO COME.
The demographic shift (boomers becoming net sellers and poorer immigrants replacing their population) will ensure housing prices decline and stay down, potentially for decades. **Do not assume that what has happened in the past (prices always go up in the long-term) will continue indefinitely going forward.** Those were unprecedented times when we had the biggest population buldge forming households/buying houses AND they also happened to live during an economic expansion (with jobs and wages to boot) — not to mention the superior U.S. military strength which may be tested in the near future. This will not necessarily be the case in the future. There is a strong possibility that renting, and using your money for saving/investing/staying flexible, might be a good idea for quite a few years. IMHO, we will be entering a long period of deflation in this country.
correction: the prices = THESE prices…sorry.
I do not know about the HB’s being that intelligent, however I do agree with your overall assessment of the future economic state of this nation. IMO this will take years to play out (10 - 15) and I look for a major recession/depression in the next 2 years. The FDIC is anticipating a 10% population recession with rising interest rates - this does not take into account any external events ($100 - 150 barrel of oil).
What is a population recession?
“What is a population recession?”
I believe what the report said was that 10% of the population would experience the recession due to their (low) economic status and inability to weather the economic storm. The speaker seemed to think that under current circumstances, the rest would be ok especially the top 5% of the population which would actually grow richer due to deflation. (Did I paraphrase that right, guys)
Well said CA Renter. I agree the Actuaries at the HBs must be crapping in their pants right now. The clock is ticking.
I’ve got a strong feeling that a lot of us are going to be renting these McMansions for dirt cheap.
Unless rents rise due to condo conversions?
IMHO, anyone that could not see this coming was either blind, stupid, or complicit in perpetuating the bubble. There were enough warnings over past year from many sources that should have sunk in to any half-intelligent potential buyer.
I am not talking about the uneducated or those that had blind faith and were lied to. The majority of buyers held their nose and relied upon the “next sucker” theory.
The straw that is breaking the back of the Real Estate bubble is a new Federal Reserve Chairman. Over the past 30 years the financial markets and economy have suffered when a new Chairman steps in.
I believe tha a 5.25% 10 year will be the watershed event that tips this market over, coupled with the massive resets that will simultaneously take place.
ROFLMAO!! Check out this letter to the editor, it almost makes you want to cry! Boo hoo for the poor guy, now he knows hwo the RE bulls feel as prices and sales decline, yet the headlines pick out the bubble-propping pieces and leave the rest of the facts ’til the end…
http://www.sun-sentinel.com/news/opinion/letters/sfl-pbmail890may03,0,4142922.story?coll=sfla-news-letters
Sorry, RE bears!
My favorite quite (think this guys’ a realtor?)”In Friday’s issue, you covered the comments of the National Association of Realtors’ chief economist, David Lereah, where this highly credible and noted national real estate expert said (quoting your article)…”
I cna picture this guy melting all his gold to make an idol to Liareah.
Barry Pollock is a flipper and has two properties in Palm Beach County-
From the tax assessor:
Property 1
Sep-2005 19349/1337 $445,000 WARRANTY DEED POLLOCK BARRY &
Jun-2002 13975/0764 $280,000 WARRANTY DEED ROMANOW MARC &
So he paid 445K for a property in 9/05 that sold for 280K in 6/02.
Property 2
Sep-1994 08440/1308 $330,800 WARRANTY DEED
Sep-1993 07898/0377 $67,800 WARRANTY DEED
Looks like his primary residence that he bought in 1994.
This schmuck prolly cash-out refied the 3,825 ft2 home listed above to purchase the home listed at the top for spec.
Another FB who decided to enter the game in 9/2005 and now will lose it all.
I am gloating at his stupidity.
Wait until it goes back to $280,000. He will be screaming how the media screwed him. Nevermind he bought an ASSET that appreciated 60% in 3 years ( 20% a year) and thought he could flip it to the NEXT fool. Sucks when the music stops….
Screw this guy!
“You have a responsibility to understand how you can influence the public’s behavior and we need — and I demand — accuracy and fairness from you.”
And I demand the same from you real estate hens! Couldn’t you at least admit that the housing boom of the last five years was generated by loose monetary conditions, loose lending, and rampant speculation? you have lost the first time home buyer that has a brain i.e. won’t use suicide loans, and you think the housing market won’t collapse? Duh, I wonder what would happen if I remove this keystone duhhhhhhh.
Everyone has their own agenda, it just so happens that mine is completely opposite from yours Mr. Pollock.
‘This is not the time to build commodity homes unless they (developers) can build them better and/or less expensively than anyone else,’ Hunter said.
What a ridiculous statement. Would anyone be telling Toyota or Nissan NOT to build commodity automobiles because there are enough cars already? Builders need to build quality products at affordable prices, and provide good service, just like any other industry. It’s called competition. Why shouldn’t housing consumers benefit from competition, just like any other consumer?
Why shouldn’t housing consumers benefit from competition, just like any other consumer?
Because we are stupid enough to believe that a house priced at $500,000 this year is a better deal than the same house priced at $250,000 five years ago. Oh yeah, and the FED says there’s no inflation either.
I want houses to eventually be priced like the depreciating asset they truly are. Land prices may appreciate but houses? Wow! Wouldn’t that be a kicker if we treated houses like cars financially? It would put a quick end to the MBS market!
“The fact that virtually all real-estate knowledgeable people said that wasn’t the case, nor was it likely to be, seemed not to enter your thought process.
Yet on your front page it went — and down went real estate sales.”
This is the Ken Lay defense (”Negative news stories resulted in the collapse of Enron”) in another guise — aka, the “kill the messenger” strategy. I expect Ben Jones to eventually get blamed for the collapse of the real estate bubble as well.
This notion that the media (whether mainstream press or blogs) can overrule economic fundmentals is pure hogwash meant to shift the blame away from the scoundrels (many key players in the RE industry) who created the problem. The only thing the messenger can do is to hasten a return to rationality.
The last ‘greater fool’ in Florida just left and filed BK. All those left with the overpriced homes, and high taxes/insurance appear to be holding the hot potato. Now let the blood curdling screams begin. Who and where will it be the loudest? Tune in to a horror station near you.
All HAIL to Ben Jones - for his great work on helping the housing bubble.
hear, hear!!!
go bears!