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I posted this yesterday at the end of the day, but thought I’d see if the Eastern and Central timers might have some advice.
My insurance company wants to run my credit score under the guise of saving me money on my car/home insurance. My credit is good and I suspect they just want to see if they can jack my rates and make themselves more (and put themselves in a power position moving forward). I also suspect that I’m on an older policy and they have as a prerequisite that any potential customers must submit to the credit check.
Is there any disadvantage to giving up my position and allowing them to do so? (other than the hit created by the credit check itself?)
They are actually trying see your credit score to see if it’s bad. The worse the score the higher the premium. They do this under the mistaken belief that people with bad credit make more claims and there by deserve a higher insurance premium. As far as I know this is totally false and people with bad credit make the same amount of claims as someone with perfect credit.
“They do this under the mistaken belief that people with bad credit make more claims and there by deserve a higher insurance premium.”
Insurance is a game of numbers and risk management. If running numbers can catagorize risk then that’s what the insurers will do.
FICOs are used to catagorize the risk of defaulting on loans; It may well be that FICOs can catagorize risks in other areas of life as well, such as proneness to accidents.
Risk management is the business of insurance companies. Whatever means they use to predict risk may be the deciding factor that seperates success from failure. I wouldn’t want to second guess the techniques used by successful insurers.
As for the question of giving them my credit score: If I had a good credit score then I would cash in on it by letting the insurance company run it.
“If I had a good credit score then I would cash in on it by letting the insurance company run it?”
I would assume the insurance companies realize they are getting biased samples, as those with good credit are more likely to disclose? Perhaps a refusal to share credit scores results in higher insurance premiums?
“It may well be that FICOs can catagorize risks in other areas of life as well, such as proneness to accidents.”
Pure f***ing horsesh!t.
“As far as I know…”
I would suggest that you probably know less than the insurance companies. Look, I don’t want to be an apologist for ‘em, their propensity to nickel and dime and short change people when paying out claims does them no credit. But when it comes to charging people….just like age, sex and other factors, if one company was unfairly penalizing some group there’d be an incentive for members to find their insurance elsewhere. The fact that, in general, insurance companies charge more to men, the young, those with a history of getting into trouble with their creditors probably means that those groups tend to have more (or more severe) claims. And yes, it DOES suck to be tarred with the same brush as the less responsible members of one’s group, whether it’s the Y chromosome club, or the bad credit club.
nb. I wonder whether this thread is why I get a progressive insurance ad on the right. Pretty clever ad placement if so.
“And yes, it DOES suck to be tarred with the same brush as the less responsible members of one’s group, whether it’s the Y chromosome club, or the bad credit club.”
Or the bad neighborhood club.
Just don’t call it redlining!
The insuraance is correct on this one. Its pretty easy to figure out. My credit score is 800 plus and I can tell you I live my life above board in every way and I`m not going to change that.
Lane
A big part to a high score is being old.
My brother in law has the highest credit score possible. He has more money than he could ever spend. He’s a lousy driver. I can count five at fault accidents he’s had over the course of the past ten years where his insurance has had to pay. FICO score has NOTHING to do with it.
“As far as I know this is totally false and people with bad credit make the same amount of claims as someone with perfect credit.”
Call me skeptical, but do you have data to back this assertion?
My hunch would be that higher-than-average claims would correlate strongly with bad credit. Here are a couple of stories to motivate this conjecture:
1) People who drink too much often have bad credit and bad driving records.
2) People who cannot manage their credit are often living under duress, and hence may be more accident prone while driving.
3) People who just lost their job and are going into foreclosure may be more prone to road rage, resulting in higher-than-average accident risk.
Show me the data!
I’ll go further and generalize - and say that people who have bad credit tend to be more irresponsible. People who are more irresponsible tend to drive worse, and thus have more claims. The same may be true of homeowners even - e.g. a responsible person would be more inclined to put a few fire extinguishers in the home, know where they are, and know how to use them.
Well except for those folks who got laid off, or worked in an industry all their lives that no longer exists and they haven’t had time to find that 5th career and of course medical or catastrophic/acts of god emergencies/accidents.
Thank god that only happens to the irresponsible.
Except for one thing: the truly responsible could be hit by a layoff, industry shake-up, etc—and still keep a good credit-rating. I’m pretty sure I could.
The reason? Well, I’ve been PREPARING for such a day, by saving. And if I were hit by a layoff, I would adjust spending immediately and dramatically, so that I could extend as long as possible the time before I would be late on any payments.
It’s easy to chalk unexpected events up as uncontrollable events, but the reality is that many of them can be prepared for. Unavoidable health issues (e.g. not due to smoking, obesity, etc etc) or unavoidable injuries do elicit more sympathy from me—but even there, some savings will go a long way towards cushioning the blow.
Why do you assume that people who make no effort to prepare against an uncertain future are responsible?
Well except for those folks who got laid off, or worked in an industry all their lives that no longer exists and they haven’t had time to find that 5th career and of course medical or catastrophic/acts of god emergencies/accidents.
Last I heard neither getting laid off nor large expenses hurt your credit score.
At least I don’t remember seeing it on my credit report when I got laid off. Maybe it was and I missed it, though if so it much not have affected it much since I had a fairly high score.
And yes - I would consider someone who got laid off and continues to pursue a job in a dead industry as irresponsible.
My what happy care free lives you lead.
Yes, getting laid off DOES hurt your credit score. As soon as the credit agencies find out, they make the change on your score. And not being able to work has this habit of making bills hard to pay.
Many people don’t have the luxury of being able to save a lot, what with wage cut backs, layoffs every 3 years, recessions every 6, offshoring of jobs and inflation outpacing J6Ps raises (if any).
And no matter how much money you have saved, ONE catastrophic medical situation will wipe you out.
And don’t get me started about how insurance companies can delay paying you your claims, thus forcing you to deplete your savings.
eco - I have to say, your victim mentality never ceases to astound me.
packman, I have to say, your lack of compassion never ceases to amaze me. Pray, PRAY that something bad that is beyond your control and planning never happens to you.
Here’s a little ditty that might familiar:
The best laid schemes o’ Mice an’ Men,
Gang aft agley,
An’ lea’e us nought but grief an’ pain,
For promis’d joy!
(The best laid schemes of Mice and Men
oft go awry,
And leave us nothing but grief and pain,
For promised joy!)
- Robert Burns, To a Mouse (Poem, November, 1785)
Scottish national poet (1759 - 1796)
People who don’t use credit because they live within their means show up as bad credit
No high score = bad credit to the system.
No they don’t. They don’t have as high a score, but that doesn’t mean “bad credit”, it means “lack of good credit”. There’s a reason why credit reports give details, including differentiating between the two.
Nevertheless - if an insurance company wants to lose good customers due to their misunderstanding/misuse of credit scores then more power to them. They’ll probably be out of business before long anyhow.
Look at what? I’m sure they click a button and the Customer Relationship Management Application returns a green button or a red button, based on one number that comes back from FICO.
Insurance companies aren’t going to lose any customers because you HAVE to have insurance, by law, for many things these days.
And for those of you who don’t realize that companies collude within their industry… you really should get out more often.
Packy, you are better than this. “Victim mentality” is orthogonal to “Deserved skepticism”. It was on THIS board that I read - several times, with links back to the sources - how out of pocket expenses due to catastrophic illness is the leading cause of Ch. 7 bankruptcies, even today.
I have had occasion to sit in on bankruptcy hearings in Federal court, pursuant to workout biz. The judges are unsentimental, and the trustees are all business. They perform their due diligence, and they do not suffer fools or weasel words, in other words.
Let’s take a fer instance. Chemo and associated expense is $15K per month. This was circa 2005. Let’s say you have disability insurance (at 75% of your salary). Let’s say you have health insurance with a 10% co-pay (generous by today’s standards). Let’s say you have a mortgage payment (which does NOT decrease by 25% when you are on disability). Let’s say your initial course of chemo is 8 months, once per month. Let’s say you are ‘prescribed’ a home health aide for the couple days a month that you are incapacitated. at $300 per day. OOPS. Your gold plated insurance does not cover home health care. OK, that is $2100 per month accruing while the hospital dukes it out with your insurance company.
At the end of the course of treatment, you owe $15K. Your insurance company has not settled up. After the initial course of treatment, you go on a quarterly cycle, with checkups in between. OOPS. You have to pay out the $15K you owe before the hospital will admit you for continuing care. Too bad, so sad. You should have prepared.
Of course, if you are on COBRA, that’s another $1500 per month. If the Big Guy is merciful, you are dead before COBRA runs out, because you will never get private insurance again. Further, you are unhirable (you don’t think ‘they’ can discern huge arrears in medical expenses from your credit report? Think again)
So, for at least one person whose case I witnessed while waiting around for my client’s to be called - you are left with running out your assets and praying for Medicaid, while waiting for a bankruptcy ruling that will quiet the phones, while being sicker than anything, without a clue as to whether or not you’ll continue to live, much less ever work again.
Of course, unless you are - like Packy - prepared. If you’re not, you are just irresponsible like all the rest of ‘em.
Enjoy your sanctimony, Packy. Hope it never comes back to bite you.
To jane and eco -
Wow - talk about being orthogonal, and hyperbolic.
First off - who said anything about health insurance? We were talking about homeowners insurance and auto insurance.
And I do believe I said I was generalizing. That means I don’t believe that all people with bad credit records are irresponsible, nor believe that all people with good credit records are responsible. However there is certainly some correlation. Would you honestly, really disagree with that?
What are the primary components of credit score? e.g. for FICO:
- 35% is payment history. i.e. If you’re irresponsible and don’t make payments on time, you get a hit here - the largest component of your credit score.
- 30% amounts owed. e.g. if you have significant balances on your credit cards; most common this is due to buying more stuff than you can afford, and paying extremely high interest rates - IMO that is irresponsible. I’m not saying that all people who owe a lot on their credit cards are irresponsible, just that there’s a general correlation. I’ve known tons of people who fit that, and it’s been documented many times right here on HBB.
- 15% length of credit. Bad if you have no history, good if you have longer history - not directly related to responsibility, though it could be implied that someone with a longer history is generally more responsible (i.e. the same way a more experienced driver is generally a more responsible driver, thus - properly - having lower insurance rates, other things being equal.
- 10% new credit. Bad if you have lots of new credit - generally a sign of financial trouble.
- 10% type of credit. Pretty vague, though generally a wider mix of credit types (e.g. CC, auto, mortgage) will get a higher score. Again not directly related to responsibility, but indirectly so - someone with a higher score is more proven to handle different kinds of payments properly.
So yes - in general credit score will indicate some level of responsibility or irresponsibility.
Some specific things show up (such as queries - which do show up actually, though it depends on the type of query). My being laid off did not show up in any of the three agencies’ reports.
BTW - you know you can take lots of steps to have your credit score improved, right? That requires responsible behavior.
I’m sorry if your credit scores aren’t that good. Spare me the sob stories and victim mentality, and your pretentious claims that I’m sanctimonious. We deal with what we’re given, and it’s up to us to make the most of it. I’m not perfect though and never claimed to be.
I’m fortunate to be a fairly healthy person. Part of that is responsible behavior - eating well, exercising regularly, not smoking, not drinking excessively, not driving recklessly, and not doing drugs. That’s the generalizing thing again though - I’m no saint in any of those areas. Part of it is luck - I haven’t gotten cancer or other nasty diseases. I do have a seizure disorder though, and pay higher life insurance premiums because of it.
I’ve known people who’ve had more medical care than you can imagine. I have an 11-year-old cousin who’s been in a vicious fight with cancer for 6 years now - constantly in and out of Sloan Kettering and other similar cancer hospitals, on the bleeding edge of experimental treatments. My mother died of brain cancer after year battle, and father-in-law of lung cancer after a 3-year battle. They all got by on insurance, on family contributions, on their savings, and on charity. I give quite a bit actually to charities such as cancer foundations, to enable just such charities. Because (gasp) I believe in helping out those who are less fortunate than me.
Insurance companies however are not charities. They’re businesses. They hire lots and lots of really smart people to try to gauge risk levels, because that’s the business they’re in - managing risk. To the original question - it’s not unreasonable to expect credit scores to be used as a contributor to gauging those risk levels - like it or not.
Of course, if you are on COBRA, that’s another $1500 per month.
What are you talking about? My COBRA was $440/month.
Allowing them to pull your credit will in itself lower your credit score.
If you are satisfied with your rates, then , no, you should not allow them to pull your credit. They will likely do so on every renewal.
If they want to lower your rates, they can do so on your claim history.
“My insurance company wants to run my credit score under the guise of saving me money on my car/home insurance.”
I believe in the insurance Industry, it’s called “cross-selling”
Your credit score is not the #1 top-of-the-list factors for determine driving risk & associated premiums
Sounds like they want to wrap another vine around your person
Certainly not #1, which is almost certinly one’s history (especially recent history) of accidents. Or #2, or #3 even. But it might well be #6 or #12.
What is C.L.U.E.?
C.L.U.E. (Comprehensive Loss Underwriting Exchange) is a claims history database created by ChoicePoint that enables insurance companies to access consumer claims information when they are underwriting or rating an insurance policy.
What information is included in a C.L.U.E. report?
The report contains consumer claim information provided by insurance companies. It includes policy information such as name, date of birth, and policy number, claim information such as date of loss, type of loss and amounts paid, and a description of the property covered. For homeowner’s coverage, the report includes the property address, and for auto coverage, it includes specific vehicle information.
Is there any other information besides loss history in the database?
Only loss history information is stored in the database. No other sources of data, credit reports, criminal records, civil lawsuits, or legal judgments are incorporated into C.L.U.E. reports.
How long is loss history kept in the C.L.U.E. database?
The database contains up to 7 years of personal property claims history.
Who contributes to the C.L.U.E. database?
Only insurance companies that subscribe to C.L.U.E. can submit loss data and access C.L.U.E. reports. Consumers can access C.L.U.E. reports on themselves and their own properties.
Some companies choose not to subscribe to C.L.U.E. Losses filed with nonparticipating companies will not appear on a C.L.U.E. report.
How do insurers use C.L.U.E. reports?
C.L.U.E. reports are used almost exclusively to underwrite and rate new policies. Most insurers renewing existing policies do not access C.L.U.E. reports at renewal, largely because they already have loss histories for these properties in their own database.
How did insurers obtain this information before C.L.U.E. was created?
Insurers have always utilized loss histories as a primary underwriting and rating factor for homeowner’s insurance policies. Prior to C.L.U.E., insurers considering an application to write a new policy on an existing home obtained property loss histories in various ways: searching public records, requesting information from the applicant, and requesting information from the insurer currently writing the coverage for the property.
Who has access to C.L.U.E.?
Insurance companies that contribute loss data to C.L.U.E. can withdraw information from the exchange. In addition, some insurance agents, with the authority of the company they represent, can withdraw data.
Why are insurance companies allowed to obtain a copy of my loss history report?
Under the federal Fair Credit Reporting Act, ChoicePoint is allowed to produce a C.L.U.E. report for the following insurance-related purposes:
* When the consumer reporting agency has reason to believe a person or company intends to use the information in connection with the underwriting of a consumer’s insurance policy. This includes situations where the consumer asks for an insurance quote or applies for insurance.
* When the request for the C.L.U.E. report is initiated by and at the request of the insurance company or agent.
Can I order a C.L.U.E. report on property I want to purchase?
No. Under the federal Fair Credit Reporting Act, C.L.U.E. reports can only be accessed by the owner, insurer or lender for the property. However, you can request that the current owner of the property order a C.L.U.E. report.
How can I obtain a copy of my C.L.U.E. report?
Under the federal Fair Credit Reporting Act you can request a copy of your C.L.U.E. report from C.L.U.E. Inc. Consumer Disclosure Center, P.O. Box 105295, Atlanta, Georgia 30348-5295, or call toll free 1-866-312-8076.
Tankxs rms
Just to throw out one way in which this *could* be possible.
If you have excellent credit and see one of those insurance ads which claim that people who switched to their insurance saved an averaget of $459.22 (or thereabouts) you might consider calling up that company and getting a quote. Since you are getting a new quote, the new company gets to pull your credit score and give you a rate based on that. Your own company can’t pull a score without your permission, so their internal policies won’t allow them to recalculate your rate based on the recently pulled excellent score.
Now, this only works if your current company thinks you are likely to call another insurer for a quote and they really would prefer to keep you. Perhaps they have found that recently a lot of people in your zipcode are calling to cancel policies and they are citing better rates with another company as a reason. It could be a customer retention program. Now, it seems like a dumb way to do things as it would be better to prevent the loss when the cutomer calls to cancel, not when there is just a risk that they might cancel, but I’m not an insurance executive.
It is plausible. Not all that likely, but plausible. The chance to raise your rates based on a collapse of your credit score are also very plausible. And they might just be selling others names of people with credit scores in particular ranges too. And it could be as simple as wanting the scores because it allows them to prove to a state regulator that their risk profile is OK. The regulators could be requiring them to assume an average credit score in the case of one that hasn’t been confirmed to be higher than that with “X” months. Never discount the possibility of unintended consequences of state regulatory regimes. If you think the feds end up with unintended incentives, well, you ain’t seen nothing until you’ve seen the states muck about.
polly,
Sounds more than “plausible” to me? I’d say that’s accurate.
Recently Mrs. DinOR was in an accident ( not her fault, one of the other drivers was cited on the spot ) and the ins. co’s have some “new and interesting” techniques.
They’re working off the assumption that everyone is so desperate to get their settlement so quickly they’re throwing out ridiculous lowball offers. Progressive offered my wife, the car ( obviously ) her missed work, car rental, towing, medical bills AND… $300 bucks!
No, you did ‘not’ read that incorrectly! $300.
I hope your wife is OK. The idea of offering someone $300 to cover all medical bills, future loss of earnings because of necessary medical treatment and any pain/suffering, is absurd.
There is a beauty in having access to capital. No question about it. Retainined savings obviously the best way to have it since you don’t have to give in to someone else’s schedule. Being broke is like handing your power over to people who have money. They can wait when you can’t so they can negotiate when you can’t. Very very dangerous situation to be in.
Mrs. Spokaneman was hit from behind a few years back. She sustained some whiplash which caused her to have significant muscle spasms for quite some time. When she went to talk to the adjuster from the at fault driver’s insurance company, Mrs. Spokaneman told the adjuster about the physical problems. The adjuster pulled out the results from a recent fun run in town, and told Mrs. Spokaneman “you had a pretty good time for someone with those injuries”. Mrs. Spokaneman accepted the very lowball offer made by the adjuster because she just didn’t want the hassles.
Had it been me, I would have called the law offices of Dewey, Cheatem and Howe and said “sic ‘em boys”.
They knew your wife’s time in a recent road race? Damn that google. I understand not wanting to fight, but getting better eventually doesn’t mean you weren’t hurt. I got rear ended a number of years ago. The muscle spasms completely eliminated the upper curve of my spine. It hurt - a lot. I could do what I had to do, and things were much improved a few months later, but it doesn’t mean that I wasn’t injured for quite a while.
polly,
Good points as well. We’re hardly in a dire situation and that’s why I thought it was ( as ‘you’ say ) absurd. Thus far, they’ve ponied up a fair amount, all in all.
And we were hardly looking for a -huge- settlement and certainly nothing this immediately? I mean it was on the 3rd of May fer’ cryin’ out loud. We were just shocked they were so brazen about it and really attempting to compress the timeline etc.
Personal finances aside, we found it extremely RUDE that they’d be making those kinds of assumptions. All this from a guy that normally is supportive of the insurers.
Unless you threaten and will follow through with a lawyer and a written, notarize, registered mail complaint to the state insurance board, most insurance companies are going to stiff you.
Not all. I had a good experience a few years ago. It surprised the hell out of me.
Was involved in an accident many years ago. Guy pulled out in front of me without looking.
The other guy was obviously at fault, at least to me. So…..his insurance company calls me. Says they are “investigating”, My heads-up to go get a copy of the police report. Found out the other guy got TWO tickets from the cops.
They call back a week later, tell me their “investigation” indicated that I am “40% at fault” for the accident. Told them I wanted my lawyer to look at it, but i thought it was BS. Also told them for some reason, I had some pain that wasn’t going away…….
It was amazing how quick they came up with another offer.
Insurance companies try to minimize their losses. Can’t blame them for that. It would be nice if they would quit assuming all their claimants are idiots.
Back in the day, pre Google, the local paper published the times of all 55,000 participants of the race. I suspect the adjustor just looked for any claimant as a good portion of the local population participates in that event.
No, you did ‘not’ read that incorrectly! $300.
My gf recently got a settlement for a similar situation, granted she had to have shoulder surgery as a result of the accident. Got $60k for all the intangibles, in addition to having car and all medical expenses covered.
$300 seems low, depending on the situation. But you knew that.
A properly repaired door ding is almost $1000 bucks anymore.
You can ching ching ching cash in on this tragedy!
- Lionel Hutz
Chris M,
I thought that was “Jackie Charles”!
Just talking w/ a client that went thru a WAY worse accident and he said it’s actually a good sign, they’re trying to lowball you. What it typically means is that ( they’re worried! )
They know their client is at fault and the fishing expedition is to see how agreeable you are out of the gate. He also mentioned that they like to get these smaller claims off the books as quickly as possible!
Most likely they want your personal information to sell it some where else. Wouldn’t give it to them.
Thanks folks. I get why they would want to check them but I’m really tired of the trend of companies using that metric. I like your idea polly. I wasn’t shopping around, but maybe I should be. I still haven’t made up my mind, but I’m inclined not to give them permission.
I’d be inclined not to give them permission just because they probably haven’t been completely straight with you on why they wanted the info. As a general rule, companies don’t make phone calls to see if they can reduce their cash receipts (which is what they are doing if they really mean to run the credit score in order to give you a lower rate). The more I think about it, the more I think they are doing an over all review of their loss exposure and they need more recent credit score information to do it. Maybe they are trying to restructure some loans and need to provide updated risk data for the bond offering. Or to get the bond rating they want. Or maybe it is a regulatory thing as I suggested before. All sorts of reasons they could want it. Very few are to your particular benefit.
I don’t get how just an inquiry about your credit score, can drop your credit score. Seems to me that an “inquiry” doesn’t expand your use of credit. So they are basing your score on something that may, or may not, happen in the future.
It would be the same as health insurance companies using DNA analysis to determine your risk of filing claims.
Ooooops, never mind……….
It’s nothing but a way to keep you on the treadmill.
As in, “You forgot to wash your hair today, so we’re penalizing you.”
…like double secret probation.
I’ve learned one thing about insurance, it pays to continue to shop. I had the same carrier for years, but a year ago , I decided to shop the coverage. I went with the company with the lady in white and save about $400/year.
Then when my daughter moved to CA, I took her off my policy, and reshopped the policy and wound up saving another $350/year by moving to another large insurer.
Guess what, next renewaal, I am shopping again.
Assuming that’s Progressive, you made what IMO is a good choice. I’ve been with them since 2005(?) and they’ve been fantastic.
Financial Reforms ‘Cosmetic,’ Won’t Stop More Crises: Roubini
CNBC
Current efforts to reform financial regulation are “cosmetic” and won’t prevent another crisis, economist Nouriel Roubini told an audience on Tuesday at the London School of Economics.
“The way I think about this crisis is not in terms of black swans (a sudden, rare event), but white swan events,” Roubini said. “Crises are much more common than we think.”
“We need more radical reforms,” he added. “The idea that we’ll be able to close down an institution like Goldman (Sachs) in an orderly way—a business that operates in nearly a hundred countries—is absurd.”
Roubini, an NYU professor who has been called “Dr. Doom” for his dire economic outlook, said the three main problems with big banks like Goldman were that they were 1) Too big to fail, 2) Too big to be bailed out and 3) Too big to be risk managed.
Attempting to manage the risk of the largest financial institutions is “mission impossible,” according to Roubini, a task that “even the most amazing risk manager can’t do” because financial institutions are far too complex.
wait a second…let me get this strait.
you are trying to tell me…a group of people who receive tons of cash from banksters…are getting ready to pass a reform bill that does nothing to prevent another crisis created by those banksters?
get the smurf out of here!
michael,
Remember, in the early going ( when it became apparent Countryfried could -not- be saved ) we were going to Tangelo/NAR/MBA for their expert opinions on how to handle the credit crunch.
Why so surprised?
you are trying to tell me…a group of people who receive tons of cash from banksters…are getting ready to pass a reform bill that does nothing to prevent another crisis created by those banksters?
Maybe it won’t be another “fat-finger” day then?
Our “Black Swan” event is currently floating all over the Gulf of Mexico….
///Our “Black Swan” event is currently floating all over the Gulf of Mexico….///
And coming soon to a body of water near you, considering it seems to be getting into major ocean currents. Thoreau said we are wealthy in the measure of what we can afford to leave alone. If you have to drill a mile under the sea, well …
Doesn’t the Gulf Stream eventually make its way over to Great Britain (though probably called by another name)?
What really gets me is that the oil dispersants may be part of the reason that we have no idea what is happening, especially since they keep the oil under the surface. Just because something works well on oil spills of size X doesn’t mean they are the best idea for oils spills of size 30X or 300X or 3000X. You have to do the work first. If keeping the oil down in the lower levels where the currents are different than they are on the surface means this stuff travels a lot further than it otherwise would, I am going to be irked.
For the next… 20 years.
No joking. The Valdez oil spill is STILL washing up on the Alaskan shores.
No joking. The Valdez oil spill is STILL washing up on the Alaskan shores.
I doubt that. Got a source?
I see mentions of effects lasting for up to 30 years, but that’s referring to latent effects, not still-washing oil.
Packman,
From dealing with oil spills… oh they seem to linger for a long long long time. You get balls of tar/oil that break lose and float to the surface decades later.
We got hounded by cleanup officials that we were distrubing oil from previous spills. Some of the heavy stuff just kind of semi-glues itself to the rocks at the bottom. Big honking five gallon size globs of oil. It’s also some kind of odd mix that seems to float to the surface and sink again.
Don’t think that would be made up. You can also get permanent shifts in the ecology due to mass die offs with the oil. Course, things are always in flux so hard to rule out natural variabiliy.
Again, the areas didn’t end up lifeless or something like that. It was one heck of a mess from a human/personal standpoint.
Apparently, although there is little visible oil, it’s readily found in the area if you flip over rocks, etc. The policy now is that cleaning the remaining oil is more damaging to the environment than leaving it alone. Oil lingers a long time.
/www.nps.gov/kefj/naturescience/upload/KEFJ_EVOS_1989-2009_qa.pdf
http://www.adn.com/exxonvaldez/
Alaskan newspaper as of this last Sunday.
(I love it when you guys ask me for sources!)
Thanks for the info. I stand corrected.
One of the news reports said that you can still see evidence of the 1968 Santa Barbara oil spill if you look in the right places.
The thing I’m wondering about is if this spill will affect the Gulfstream that affects the weather in Europe?
Talk about climate change…
I’ve often thought we should divert the gulf stream to our northern shores, and warm our own winters. Why should western Europe (otherwise at the same latitude as Canada) get ‘our’ warmth? If they want it, they should pay for it, or at least trade us some wine, which they couldn’t even produce without the warmth they get from our gulf stream. They’d be tundra without that ‘golden shower’ of gulf warmth.
LOL!
Now that… is blogging my friend! Too funny, yeah, where’s my freakin’ wine you Frog Scumbags?
“The way I think about this crisis is not in terms of black swans (a sudden, rare event), but white swan events,” Roubini said. “Crises are much more common than we think.”
Oh Yeah, right !
…and these large, hungry dark things circling and blocking out the sun aren’t Vultures, they’re just a friendly swarm of giant Aflac DUCKS ?
Wow, I’ll bet the brain trust sat around for weeks before they came with…Hey lets just raise taxes, that’ll fix it!
Report: Increase in payroll taxes needed for Social Security
WASHINGTON — Social Security faces a $5.3 trillion shortfall over the next 75 years, but a congressional report says the massive gap could be erased with only modest changes to payroll taxes and benefits.
Some of the options are politically dangerous, such as increasing payroll taxes or reducing annual cost-of-living increases for Social Security recipients. Others, such as gradually raising the age when retirees qualify for full benefits, wouldn’t be felt for years but would affect millions.
Many wouldn’t affect current recipients, according to the report by the Senate Special Committee on Aging. Sen. Herb Kohl (D), chairman of the committee, said small “tweaks” are all that is needed to bolster Social Security’s finances for future generations of retirees.
Nickel and dime ya death. The pols think they’re so clever.
The other day I read that to right my state’s collapsing finances state income taxes would need to rise to such an extent that a worker making $50k/yr would see their taxes go from $1,500 to $4,100 a year.
Bizzaro world will spend, consume, and tax its way to everlasting prosperity!
Somebody has to pay the retirement and medical for public employees when they retire at 50. If a $50K/year guy has to pony up 8% for state income tax, well, sorry. What else does he need the money for, feeding his kids?
Spokaneman,
Well said. As I’ve mentioned here numerous… times, when the avg. citizen does the math, what’s really more likely to be my ‘end’?
That I’ll die in a hail of gang related gunfire? ( I don’t live anywhere -near- a major city ) That I’ll be burned to a crisp in a house fire? ( I don’t even smoke )
Or… that I’ll die cold, broke and hungry as a result from paying for a whole bunch of “services” I never really needed to begin with?
And NOW… my customary kiss off!
If you see me rolling around in flames ( just keep driving, I can’t “afford” you! )
I was a bit spring loaded about public servants after reading in the local paper that the new chancellor of the community college system has a base salary of $210K/year. I’m thinking that is about a $120K/year job tops. Plus they spend almost $100K in recruitment costs.
I’m sure that run away taxes in CONsumer based economy without jobs will work out great in the long term.
Argh!
I wish my state income taxes were that low.
My daughter lives in CA, makes about $50K and I estimated her state liability to be about $1000. But it is highly progressive, it doesn’t take huge earning to get to a 5% average rate. I think the highest marginal rate in CA is now 9+%
The idea has been around for a long time. Congress is just assembling evidence, in the form or reports and commissions and panels, to sell the idea to the rich campaign donors. And to sell it to the conservative lower-middle class.
The federal homebuyer tax credit cost us 16 billion. After distributions to banks and speculators there is nothing left.
Is demand falling off a cliff from bringing it all forward?
The jury is still out on the pull demand forward, but my daily tracking of 12 Calif cities on Zillow seems to indicate a rapidly swelling inventory of organic inventory for sale.
It would be great to know how many of the homebuyers who went for it were people who would have bought a home over the next year or so anyway, and just wanted to pocket the free money.
Problem’s worth pondering, but using a horizon of 75 YEARS? It’s like those ridiculous stories promising $10 million houses in a few decades because housing only goes up. Last I checked, we have de facto open borders and a population, most of whom will eventually be legal and contributing to the SS game, heading toward 400-500 million in the next 30 years.
I think it’s more likely we’ll be dying for a drink of fresh water and/or living on massive landfills than worrying about what’s in the SS fund. Life expectancy also will shorten considerably and that’ll be good news for the program, too!
I think it’s more likely we’ll be dying for a drink of fresh water
More like we’ll see a lot of brown lawns replaced by “xeriscape”
Love that word “xeriscape.” Think it was funny when I saw a Phoenix development touted that banned it. Talk about living in denial, prohibiting desert landscaping in the desert.
OTOH, if we get to xeriscaping east of the 100th meridian, we are in a little trouble!
Think it was funny when I saw a Phoenix development touted that banned it.
Really?
Remember the name, perhaps. That’s… amazing. (and sad)
Xeriscape? Oh, you mean “zeroscape.”
“I think it’s more likely we’ll be dying for a drink of fresh water”
Been there, done that. I had lunatic USAF mother that wanted to go green with a lawn and garden smack in the middle of the freakin’ Mojave Desert many moons ago.
Whenever I wasn’t the “obedient little soldier”, I was out there breaking rocks and digging weeds in the hot sun.
I looked at the old desert homestead on google a few weeks ago and then informed her whats left of her lawn is a burned brown splotch but that her damned weeds still looked nice and healthy to me.
“Social Security faces a $5.3 trillion shortfall over the next 75 years, but a congressional report says the massive gap could be erased with only modest changes to payroll taxes and benefits.”
That’s what they did in 1983 — a big increase in the regressive payroll tax, and lower benefits for younger generations. That “saved” Social Security.
The Social Security surplus was then used to pay for ever-higher health care benefits for older generations, and a cut in the progressive income tax.
Bottom line — if those “at or over 55″ are exempted from “shared sacrifice,” than any “tweaks” would just mean more money for them to spend on themselves.
WT, then again, those of us who can see 55 not so far down the road, maybe we, too, will need to catch up as best we can, stashing every possible dollar into those retirement accounts before our good friends in Gen Y get the chance to put us on an ice floe!
And of course medicare blows a much bigger hole in the budget, because of the combination of an aging population and the ever rising cost of care. But it doesn’t get as much attention because it doesn’t rely on a Ponzi-ish trust fund to “fund” a significant proportion of its expenses as the boomers retire.
“tweaks”
Does that mean that SS recipients are “tweakers”?
There is no cash in DC that is not spent.
Trusting a politician with guarding money is like trusting a crackhead with guarding crack.
Here’s an idea to repair Social Security
How about a massive 80% windfall profits tax on Wall Street managment, Hedge Fund management, and Insurance company management. Without the US tax payer these people would be broke.
I like it since those shmucks make fortunes from moving around other people’s money and creating scams while skimming off the top. They contribute absolutely nothing of value to society. Too bad it’ll never happen.
Great idea. Only happen the day you get 300,000 people massing around the NYSE. Things changed in Eastern Europe when such things happened.
Love it, measton!
Uh, what payroll?
Carry Bloodbath Resumes With Full Blown Liquidations Imminent
Tyler Durden * Germany
After earlier we saw the decimation of the European currency, it is now Asia’s turn where an impressive bloodbath is now raging. The AUDUSD is in freefall, having moved a massive 300 pips from yesterday’s high to today’s low. At under 50 pips from 0.855, the AUDUSD will likely breach 0.85 at which point the destruction at carry desks will become an epidemic, and full liquidations will soon ensue, coupled with billion dollar margin calls, forcing global asset liquidations at bulge brackets. With the carry collapse pervasive, don’t look to futures to stage any miraculous Fed-inspired ramps tonight: Germany may have well called the Fed’s bluff.
is this why interest rates are (slightly) going up
Nick Leeson ( the “Rogue Trader” that brought down Barings Bank ) must be laughing his @$$ off.
I just looked at the AUDUSD chart. What exactly happed in Sept-Oct 2009 that collapsed it down to 0.62?
Uhmmm, Lehman collapsed
Late 2008 is when AUDUSD hit .62
You’re right, my bad, it was 2008 and yeah of course those were turbulent times.
Hedge Funds Bet Europe’s $1 Trillion Bailout Won’t Solve Crisis.
May 19 (Bloomberg) — Kyle Bass, who made $500 million in 2007 on the U.S. subprime collapse, is betting Europe’s debt crisis won’t be solved by the $1 trillion loan package the International Monetary Fund and European Union agreed on last week.
“The EU and the IMF effectively went all-in with a bad hand in the highest stakes game of financial poker ever played with the world,” wrote Bass, head of Dallas-based Hayman Advisors LP, in a letter to clients sent after the bailout was announced.
Bass bought gold last week and took other steps to position the fund for hyperinflation and a “competitive devaluation” by Europe, Japan and the U.S. that he is forecasting, according to the letter. Christopher Kirkpatrick, general counsel for Hayman, declined to elaborate on the comments.
I don’t get the hedgies’ bet, as well over $1 tn in bail has clearly fixed the American economy…
wmbz,
Yeah, don’t bet against Kyle. Still, I don’t see any ‘visionary’ conclusions he’s arrived at that anyone that posts here couldn’t have capitalized on had we the $’s to work on that scale?
Isn’t it time we had the adult discussion as to what the Banking Sector ( what’s left of it ) will look like in the post-financial apocalyptic world?
I went to an author talk last week by one of the NPR economics guys, Chris Farrell. The book (The New Frugality) seemed kind of lame, but his talk went into other economic matters. At one point he was saying that the US was going to be fine because people were buying US bonds and the dollar was going up against the Euro and that proved that the world believed in the US economy and that everything would be great.
Well, I couldn’t just let that go, could I?
So I asked how you could come to that conclusion based on comparative currency valuation because it was only a relative measure and just because we are doing better than the next guy, doesn’t mean we are actually doing well? (I think I held back on the drowning in a few hours is better than drowning right now, but it is still drowning metaphor.) He sputtered and said that the markets said that the US was going to be fine.
I don’t recommend the book. Anyone on this blog could do a better job writing a how to book on saving money.
NPR is so predictable and lame. Makes me sick.
Russia Today is the best news organization IMO.
Everything will be fine because everything will be fine!
Everything only goes up, so don’t worry about it. Nevermind the endless unemployment and vanishing jobs, the rising taxes, the (in reality) nearly worthless dollar, the debt, etc. Everything has to be fine or the people won’t buy into the next scam.
Heh, good on you Polly.
Just another huckster selling a book.
“Well, I couldn’t just let that go, could I?”
Brava, Polly.
He sputtered and said that the markets said that the US was going to be fine.
I wonder if he thinks the same about 1929, 1999, 2007, etc.
Seems the markets’ crystal ball can be a bit… hazy… sometimes.
We see the same oblivious optimism taking hold in the MSM now that was present in the early 1930s. Some things never change, apparently.
(I think I held back on the drowning in a few hours is better than drowning right now, but it is still drowning metaphor.)
HBB’s Polly in an NPR smack-down in Washington? And I missed it? Curses!
Naw, it was in Chevy Chase.
Seriously, who the heck goes on tour trying to sell a book on being frugal and green. I mean, books can be borrowed from the library if you want to be frugal or downloaded onto e-readers if you don’t want to kill the trees. I’m guessing this was timed as a graduation present release, though it is a little late for that.
I thought about asking him if he had done enough statistical research to refute the findings of Juliet Schor’s The Overspent American, but that would have been just mean. I think he hypothesizes that young people today are competeing with each other over how frugal and green they can be with their lifestyle, presumably doing the comparisons over the internet in its various forms. Schor provides strong statistical evidence that people who watch more TV spend more (desiring the goods used by the characters they identify with). She also said that women entering the workforce in large numbers had an influence on spending because women in lower level positions aspired to the goods they saw their higher paid co-workers use. It is a fantastic book. Probably needs to be updated, but I’m guessing his book is more anecdotes, which is no way to refute Profesor Schor. She rocks.
“drowning in a few hours is better than drowning right now” LOL
Isn’t that what we’ve been doing since at -least- 2007? Can kicking, whatever you prefer. Sorry the guy wasted your time like that and yes, anyone here puts a book together I’d be only too happy to read it.
Truth is ( one post at a time ) we already have. That’s why on our local PDX blog if some newbie ‘demands’ to have a link posted to support your long consensual claim, I don’t even bother to respond. What, you want me to post the Credit Suisse Re-Set Chart for the Idon’tknowhowmaniethtime?
Get w/ the freakin’ program boot camp mf’r.
Interesting play to buy gold when it, along with other commodities, are collapsing. Heck, the palladium chart is real ugly–down 20% just since last Wednesday. It looks much more like a return to 2008-09 than hyperinflation at this point. Wish I would have sold all my gold, silver, platinum, and palladium last week!
Gold ceased being a commodity play back in 2005 when it passed $500 without a blink. It’s been purely a currency hedge since then.
P.S. it’s worth noting that at that time only about 0.1% of the population really saw the housing bubble for what it was (in terms of its existence, its magnitude, and its long-term effects).
IMO that speaks a bit about the prescience of the gold bugs.
Another turd being flushed, ‘Ol Arlen Sphincter get’s to circle the bowl…
Joe Sestak defeats Arlen Specter, Rand Paul wins, Democrats claim victory in PA special election
Pennsylvania Rep. Joe Sestak defeated Sen. Arlen Specter in the Democratic Senate primary, a large-scale political upset that ends the career of one of the enduring figures in Pennsylvania politics.
“This election is about you,” said Sestak in his victory speech. “This is what democracy looks like: a win for the people, over the establishment, over the status quo, even over Washington, D.C.”
Awesome! So long, Specter. And now, don’t let the door hit ya where the good Lord split ya!
He’ll always have a fall-back career as a Nixon impersonator.
Oh he’ll just get an ambassadorship to some quaint little country and be put out to pasture with all the dignity afforded to royalty.
But yes, I’ll have some champagne!
The dumb ass is blaming the tea party for his ass whipping. He says is dangerous out there, they want to go back to the gold standard.
Total moron, bye old fool!
“Pennsylvania Rep. Joe Sestak defeated Sen. Arlen Specter…”
Specter will now hang the lobbying shingle.
Or run as an Independent. He could split BOTH party votes.
I think the deadline for running as an independent has passed, or else we would have heard of it by now.
(It’s Connecticut which has no deadline, which is how joe Lieberman made it back to the Senate after losing the primary.)
Talk about Karma, Irony or whatever.
He left Republican party because he thought he would lose in Republican primary…….
Hahahaha!
Gee, duh - maybe swapping parties to try to continue to get re-elected isn’t the brightest idea! Now he can follow the way the wind blows again right out the door!
Germany Fails to Get Other Nations to Join Short Ban (Update1)
May 19 (Bloomberg) — Germany has failed to persuade other nations to follow its prohibition on naked short-selling and speculation on European government bonds, limiting the effect of the rules.
A Europe-wide ban on the practices is “doubtful,” Eddy Wymeersch, Europe’s top market regulator, said in a telephone interview today. European Union Financial Services Commissioner Michel Barnier said the rules would have been “more efficient” if they were coordinated with the EU.
In an effort to calm the region’s financial markets German regulator BaFin issued a ban that took effect at midnight and lasts until March 31, 2011. The move caused stocks around the world to drop and the euro traded near a four-year low against the dollar.
“Unless you have the U.K., United States and rest of Europe on board, then it’s a waste of time,” David Buik, a market analyst at inter-dealer broker BGC Partners in London, said in a telephone interview today. “You’re asking people to look for trouble. It’s so ham fisted it’s laughable.”
“It’s so ham fisted it’s laughable.”
Pretty much sums up bailout efforts in our neck of the woods too.
Told you the German traders will probably ignore it. And this is why.
Man Selling Spots In Hidden Bunker As Last Hope
BARSTOW, Calif. (CBS)
Where would you go in the event of a catastrophe? For $50,000, one man says he will guarantee your family’s security in the event of a nuclear blast, tsunami, earthquake or other disaster.
“That whole upper structure can be blown away, debris could fall in here — doesn’t matter, [it] won’t get inside,” says Robert Vicino, a San Diego inventor and real estate entrepreneur.
Vicino’s master plan is to build a self-contained shelter to be a safe haven in the case of a catastrophe.
“Would you want to survive or would you want to sit on the porch with chardonnay or Jack Daniels and watch the show?” Vicino asked.
Vicino is the man behind Vivos and his vision is a nationwide network of underground shelters for survival.
“There will be double layers and razor wire. This will be an impenetrable compound when we’re done,” Vicino said while giving me a tour of the site at an undisclosed location in the middle of the desert, halfway between Los Angeles and Las Vegas.
Vicino plans to offer a solution that he calls the ultimate life insurance policy. He says his complex will sustain life in the event of an Armageddon-like disaster, such as a nuclear blast, natural disaster, chemical and biological attacks, or even the predicted end of the world according to the Mayans — 2012. It is a scenario that has often been played out on the big screen and chronicled in news magazines.
What a perfect gift idea.
Buy now or be priced out forever?
Plus, as an added bonus, it is located in Barstow.
Don’t know why all you folks are hammering this guy - sounds like a great plan to me. Armageddon it!
(I know, I know - don’t quit your day job.)
“…it is located in Barstow.”
“…says Robert Vicino, a San Diego inventor and real estate entrepreneur.”
I don’t Mr. Real Estate entrepemanure will be able to stop the “locals” from seizing his hangout…if they want it for themselves.
Fort Irwin & the National Training Center (NTC) is a major training area for the United States Military. Located in the Mojave Desert in Barstow, California, the base is part of the Installation Management Command (IMCOM). The opposing force at the NTC is the 11th Armored Cavalry Regiment, the Blackhorse Cavalry.
Natalie, pack, azdude, combo - thanks for the laughs - good way to start the day!
“….stop the locals from seizing his hangout…..”
This assumes, of course, that the hangout even exists.
“See, here’s the deal. For $50,000, I’ll save you a place in Armageddon Acres. Sorry, you can’t actually visit the place…..if you knew where it was, it wouldn’t be secret now, would it? You know, “Loose Lips Sink Ship?”……..I do have some nice pictures of it………Upgrades will include 100 virgins for you to pass the time with, and executive helicopter transportation to helivac you off your rooftop, and avoid any “Mad Max” scenarios trying to get to your bunker……..”
I can’t wait to see one of these on display at the next “parade-of-homes” show. The razor wire is sure to be a hit with the little tykes.
“For $50,000, one man says he will guarantee your family’s security in the event of a nuclear blast, tsunami, earthquake or other disaster.”
Nothing like a contract in which the insured has no recourse if the guarantee fails…
P.S. Kind of brings to mind another one:
“Come to church every Sunday, drop your money in the collection plate, believe everything in this book, and you are guaranteed to live forever.”
+10!
“Come to church every Sunday, drop your money in the collection plate, believe everything in this book, and you are guaranteed to live forever.”
Where does it say that in the Bible?
in the summary on the back cover
Personally, I like the company of certified athiests who promised to take care of your pets it the rapture came.
Sorta like a New house warranty, backed by the contractor.
A box of kleenex is more useful.
“Would you want to survive or would you want to sit on the porch with chardonnay or Jack Daniels and watch the show?” Vicino asked.
I’ll be on the porch. But with better bourbon.
Sounds like he’s had time to “invented” a scheme for more personal wealth, that… plus lack of sales…
Yes, I’ll be driving out to the desert through the piles of ash on my last tank of gas the day after the meteor hits or Yellowstone blows, with my trusty little map and a key. No doubt cell service will be working! I’ll just wave my paperwork outside the door and they’ll let me in, right? Better odds with the collection plate scheme, maybe!
I’d rather go down in flames than “survive” in Barstow ( but that’s just me )
Armaggedon Acres- Buy now or die in the chaos!
(Could be a good use for those subdivisions of foundations in the middle of nowhere- underground homes for survivalists.)
alpha-sloth,
Funny! Yeah sign me up. It amazes me that virtually every survivalist “strategy” fails to include a machine shop, which ’should’ be the basis of “rebuilding after the ____”
Other than food, clothing, shelter, without the ability to work, shape and service our implements ( what you really have is the Stone Age )
heh, i work as a machinist/fabricator. i have a friend (financial adviser) who told me that money was more important than machines. ha! he had nothing to say when i explained that 90%+ of the population would be dead within a year without machines. i then asked him what would be available to buy? clueless.
Don’t forget to stock the machine shop with hand tools as there’s likely to be no e- around. I recommend Sears Craftsman — three of each.
Build a Flinstones style CNC mill out of rope and rocks, with a woodpecker to control it.
heh-heh. could use a water wheel, pelton wheel, pedal power, steam engine, horses, or slaves to make rotary power:^) electricity is convenient, but not necessary…
Not too much different than the Bozo’s that pay many tens of thousands of dollars to have themselves frozen hoping to be thawed out in a better world.
Man, when my 75 years or so are up, I be ready to go.
Ask Burgess Meredith how that worked out for him. Yeah, huh, see, see! It ain’t that simple having all that free time on your hands after society is over.
LOL.
This reminds me of the year 1979 when the world was going to hell in a handbasket.
It looks more and more likely that America will get the gridlock it needs to get the economy moving again. Last time that happened was 1994.
I’m starting up my stock screeners. There are some buying opportunities ahead.
I’ll promise to drop a box of freez-dried food down into your bunker on my way to the steakhouse.
Be careful Bill - it really is different this time.
1979:
Deficit: 2-3% of GDP
Debt: 32% of GDP
2010:
Deficit: 12% of GDP
Debt: 90% of GDP
Predictions of a nation’s demise are always proven wrong - until they aren’t.
(To use a goofy but IMO apt snowclone cliche)
1979 - Global Cooling was the big theory…we would all have to move to Mexico to avoid the glaciers…
I think the global warming/cooling proponents end up discrediting themselves, since climate is so hard to forecast. They should stick to what is undeniable - global atmospheric CO2 level change. It’s going up, no question about it. That’s alarming enough for me.
Reminds me of http://prepareforthefuture.com/
Secure your place in the vault!
This is one of those cold-war era AT&T Long Lines hardened communications facilities. The were built in the 1960’s by Ma Bell and the US Govt to maintain operations of the cross country coaxial and microwave communications network in case of all out nuclear attack. These facilities ranged from 8000 to 100,000 square feet, were buried under 4 feet of earth, had two foot thick concrete walls/ceilings with EMP hardening, several thousand KVA of standby generation, and elaborate ventilation systems that featured blast valves that would slam shut within milliseconds after an above ground gamma ray detector sensed the flash of a nuclear detonation. They were designed to be manned for up to several weeks as part of a Continuity of Government plan after a full scale nuclear war. Google “Autovon Bunker” or “Cold War Comms” for more info.
With the end of the cold war and and advent of fiber optics and satellites the coaxial cables were decommissioned and most of these sites were sold to American Tower which then sold some of them off to private citizens. When they were sold they often included operational generators and ventilation systems. I have the feeling someone bought one of these and is now figuring out a way to get a return on his investment.
TTT: “Big-time fraud requires commitment. Take it from me.”
Geithner urges Europe “follow through” on crisis
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Geithner-urges-Europe-follow-rb-4018525460.html?x=0&sec=topStories&pos=4&asset=de403f14f0c02f5bace66c5e91c45986&ccode=rd
This story reminds me of how the aftermath of major riots in U.S. city cores during the 1960s affected their subsequent development. Looking back through the rear view mirror forty years hence, it is quite apparent that some of them never really recovered (e.g. Detroit).
Crisis-hit Greece struggles to attract tourists
Ingrid Melander
ATHENS
Wed May 19, 2010 6:40am EDT
ATHENS (Reuters) - Hotel receptionist Maria Kanelopoulou has been busy crossing names out of an already rather empty reservations book since labor protests turned violent this month, ending with the death of three.
“I am worried. In Greece the only thing we have is tourism, the sea, the weather,” Kanelopoulou, 45, said in the empty reception hall of 18-room Nefeli hotel in the Plaka tourist district. “People who destroy don’t understand this.”
Some 27,000 nights were canceled in Athens hotels after the May 5 march, threatening a resource that is essential to helping Greece out of a severe debt crisis. Greece depends on tourism for nearly a fifth of its 240-billion euro ($296 billion) economy, and one in five people work in the industry.
But even with the attraction of its thousands of islands and clear blue waters, all made cheaper by a falling euro, Greece has become a hard sell, as potential visitors are put off by the frequent unpredictable strikes and images of violent clashes at anti-austerity marches.
Travel websites are filled with questions from worried travelers wondering whether to change or cancel their bookings.
“Since we are bringing our children with us, I am seriously rethinking our plans,” said one post on tripadvisor.com. “I do not want to have to worry about my kids, or if there will be disruptions.”
Euro zone member Greece plunged into its crisis after it revealed in October its deficit would be more than twice previous forecasts, sending shockwaves through markets worldwide and threatening the euro.
The newly elected government was forced to announce austerity steps including public pay cuts and tax hikes which in turned sparked almost daily union marches and several strikes.
Another general strike has been called for May 20 and more are planned for June.
The tourism industry had hoped to benefit from the weaker euro to stabilize revenues after a 10 percent drop in 2009, but now sees a further 7-9 percent fall this year.
If the summer season is as bad as forecast, this will further sour the mood afterward, when Greeks find themselves with less money to make it through the winter. Most people working in tourism depend on their summer income to last the whole year.
…
…
It’s the social equivalent of program-trading “stop loss” algorithms.
Economy goes sour -> debt higher -> austerity implemented -> people riot -> tourism hurt -> economy goes more sour -> etc.
The debt bed has been laid - now it’s time to lie in it. There is no way out, except to eventually hit rock bottom, which probably includes breaking out of the EU.
I remember my dad talking about Shaker Heights near Cleveland. He said Shaker Heights used to be an upper class area until the early 1960s. Then new people started moving in. He heard of people throwing out trash from their cars. There went the neighborhood. About 45 years ago…
“People who destroy don’t understand this.”
someone asked me a while back that if i could be any fictional being…who would i choose.
i told them that it would be a toss up between santa claus and the joker.
the joker side of me tingles with this quote.
I’d be the candy-crapping unicorn.
I’d be The Doctor.
Well, were I a German tourist I wouldn’t want to go there. The sunburn will give them away. Maybe they should come to Florida instead - and bring scrub brushes, rubber gloves, and dish soap!
Cantankerous Intellectual Bomb-thrower
PB, if that’s you, your new ID is a hoot. LOL
I’m planning a trip to Greece in fall, 2011. Maybe we should move it up a year.
In contrast to Greece, I expect California’s tourism season this year to turn out “better than expected,” thanks to BP. Would Asian tourists rather visit a clean California beach, or an oil-slicked Gulf Coast beach?
California poised for tourism rebound
By HUGO MARTIN
Los Angeles Times
LOS ANGELES - Get ready. Those photo-snapping, beach-strolling, souvenir-shopping tourists are returning to California in greater numbers.
And they’re expected to spend a bit more than in the past.
For the last year or so, the economic downturn has led many tourists to put off visits to the Golden State. But two weeks ago, the California Travel and Tourism Commission predicted a nearly 3 percent increase in visitors this year, followed by a 4 percent increase in 2011.
In even better news for recession-battered businesses, the visitors are expected to spend about $92 billion on food, lodging and other expenses, up 5 percent from 2009.
“It’s been tough,” Caroline Beteta, chief executive of the tourism commission, said during a news conference in Santa Monica. “But we really expect to take off in 2011.”
The improved numbers are the result of pent-up demand to travel and improved consumer confidence in the economy, she said.
Theme park operators are also buoyed by the improved economy, saying attendance should rebound this summer from the slump a year earlier.
“It’s the right time,” said Universal Studios Hollywood President Larry Kurzweil. “We do see a rebound in attendance.”
But not everyone is so confident. Carl Winston, director of San Diego State University’s Hospitality and Tourism Management Program, said he would not be surprised to see a small increase in visitors, but he is skeptical about predictions of greater spending.
“The good news is they are getting more visitation,” he said. “The bad news is they are not getting a price increase because no one is paying more.”
He added that hotel occupancy rates statewide have dropped as much as 25 percent in the last two years.
The commission’s projections are based on an analysis by Tourism Economics, a Wayne, Pa., firm that studies airport traffic, hotel occupancy numbers, historical trends, unemployment rates and national economic data to predict tourism trends.
Beteta said she also expects California to benefit from the Travel Promotion Act, which was signed into law by President Obama in March. The law charges most foreign visitors a $10 fee to help fund efforts to attract tourists to the U.S.
California and Florida are the two most popular destinations for foreign visitors. A big share of the increase in foreign visitors to California is expected to come from Australia, China and South Korea.
In Los Angeles, where tourism remains the city’s top industry, the number of visitors is also expected to rise modestly.
“We are really optimistic about 2010,” said Patti MacJennett, senior vice president for LA Inc., the city’s convention and visitors bureau.
Still, most visitors will keep being frugal spenders during their stay, she said. “People will continue to be conservative.”
Posted on Mon, May. 17, 2010 07:23 AM
Read more: http://www.kansascity.com/2010/05/17/1950792/california-poised-for-tourism.html#ixzz0oNYaHk5p
If there is any state in the union where things can change in an instant, it has to be CA. Maybe they should refrain from the rosy prognostications, eh?
“California and Florida are the two most popular destinations for foreign visitors…”
Are illegals counted in that statistic?
Well, except for the folks from Arizona who might not like the San Diego city council, among others, passing a vote of boycott over their new immigration laws.
I don’t think they’ll be heading to CA this year.
Loan demand to buy US homes sinks post tax credit
Wed May 19, 2010 7:00am EDT
By Lynn Adler
NEW YORK, May 19 (Reuters) - Demand for loans to buy U.S. homes shriveled to a 13-year low last week, following the expiration of federal tax credits, while near-record low mortgage rates stoked refinancing, the Mortgage Bankers Association said on Wednesday.
Mortgage purchase applications sank 27.1 percent to the lowest level since May 1997 in the absence of the popular government support, the group said. U.S. housing groped for footing after more than a year of homebuyer tax credits worth up to $8,000 expired on April 30.
Requests for home purchase loans have fallen almost 20 percent over the past month despite low borrowing costs.
“The data continue to suggest that the tax credit pulled sales into April at the expense of the remainder of the spring buying season,” Michael Fratantoni, the industry group’s vice president of research and economics, said in a statement.
…
With the tax credits gone, home shoppers will take more time to find the right property, said Demetriou. “Unemployment is definitely still an issue and inventory is still an issue, but it’s definitely a buyer’s market.” (Editing by Leslie Adler)
“Requests for home purchase loans have fallen almost 20 percent…”
Can you say, double dip? I knew you could!
Interesting thing - for-sale inventories in a zip code I monitor in central Maryland has shrunk to 2004-2005 levels. Very interesting. I remember that inventories skyrocketed in fall 2005 here. I don’ t know about foreclosures though, haven’t been tracking those.
The governments slide towards central planning and picking winners and losers, encouragement of malinvestment and the wink-and-nudge manipulation of the stock market is sure to have a happy ending.
Wednesday, May 19, 2010
Homebuyers rush to claim state tax credits
By Jim Wasserman
jwasserman@sacbee.com
Published: Tuesday, May. 18, 2010 - 12:00 am | Page 6B
High numbers of pending home sales suggest California’s new $10,000 tax credit for first-time homebuyers will run out as soon as next month, officials said Monday.
Nearly 2,500 buyers have already staked claims to $13.3 million in tax credits since the program’s start May 1, according to estimates by the state Franchise Tax Board. That includes 2,040 applications last week. The previous week an estimated 430 buyers applied for shares of a $100 million statewide allocation.
“People respond to financial incentives,” said Leslie Appleton-Young, chief economist for the California Association of Realtors, on Monday. “Absolutely, it’s going fast.”
The pace suggests that initial estimates of the credit lasting just “six to eight weeks,” according to tax board spokeswoman Brenda Voet, are accurate. Pending sales of existing homes – those between an accepted offer and close of escrow statewide – are running 20 percent ahead of last year at this time, said Appleton-Young. If last year’s history holds true, nearly half are first-time buyers sure to apply for tax credits within days of closing escrow.
The FTB couldn’t provide application totals received to date from the capital region.
Voet said a second $100 million allocation for buyers of new unoccupied homes will last longer. But even that “could take as little as six months” to allocate, she said Monday. The FTB had no estimates for those applications.
Late last week, the tax agency began warning first-time buyers that it could take up to an hour to connect to its fax machines due to “the high volume of faxes we are receiving.”
Read more: http://www.sacbee.com/2010/05/18/2757562/homebuyers-rush-to-claim-state.html#ixzz0oNcAVGaV
…
Popular Comment
“I can’t adequately describe the warm feeling I get knowing that my wife and all state employees have been forced to take a 15% pay cut so that folks that can afford to buy new homes can get a $10,000 discount on the purchase price. We all have to appreciate what that says about how our state government values its employees. The only thing that gives me a warmer feeling is knowing that while state employees take a 15% pay cut, on top of all the tax increases that all state residents are facing, so that you, the public, can pay less in taxes, you hate them for that. That doesn’t say much about you.”
– hpbromine
The overpaid government employees are getting a taste of all this then? Good.
Perhaps we will deal with the Calpers disaster and get our tax structure under control.
What we need to do is get the pension system off the books. Force them into 401(k)s and let them ‘decide’ how to invest their pension money, and when they retire, cut them loose to pay their own way, just like the private sector.
I don’t object to paying for services, but I do object to paying for people to NOT provide services, which is what the guaranteed pension plans amount to.
Oh, we don’t need to go that crazy. Change the employee contribution a bit, time of service calculations, pay based on last five years base salary not counting OT.
They have to bear their own medical costs but can be part of state plans.
That would fix it.
There is some over reaction to the numbers because of the current downturn.
Also should have some stricter rules/laws governing the investment types. MBS synthetics should be a no-no.
Again, need to look at our tax structure in the state and spending to make it attractive to business. We have a lot of spending to pull back as well.
They’d better hurry up.
http://dealbook.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/05/19/calpers-to-ask-for-more-money-from-california/?src=busln
Since all this Ca Homebuyer’s Credit does is wipe out your state income tax liability for 3 years, and is non-refundable (NO CHECK TO BUYER-the rest of the money evaporates), I’d love to see the number crunching. What a load of horse….
Does anyone go to the FTB and read the details?
“These tax credits are limited to the lesser of 5 percent of the purchase price or $10,000 for a qualified principal residence. Taxpayers must apply the total tax credit in equal amounts over 3 successive tax years (maximum of $3,333 per year) beginning with the tax year in which the home is purchased. The tax credits cannot reduce regular tax below tentative minimum tax (TMT). The tax credits are nonrefundable and unused credits cannot be carried over.”
Under General Information, Paragraph 2
What are they complaining about? Buy a house, get the $10K, and it’s a wash…….
What does momentum get you if the prospective buyer pool has been decimated by accelerated home purchases and what is left either lacks will or bank to pay current, government-inflated home prices? The economists who advise the builders must be on drugs.
Tax Credit Effect: Housing Starts Surge, But Permits Dive
May 18, 2010 by Staff
Housing starts registered a bigger-than-expected jump in April – the highest level in 18 months – but construction permits saw a big drop and that may signal a summer dip in activity for the fragile housing market.
The April figures from the Commerce Department reflect somewhat on the impact of the homebuyer tax credits, which offered up to $8,000 but expired April 30. The program fueled a rebound in home sales through March and last month, after a lackluster first two months of the year.
New home construction starts in April were at a seasonally adjusted 672,000 units, a 5.8 percent increase over the revised March estimate of 635,000 units – and 40.9 percent over the April 2009 rate of 477,000 units.
However, building permits for new housing construction – a harbinger of construction starts to come – were at 606,000 in April, an 11.5 percent drop below the revised March rate of 685,000.
Permits in April were at their lowest level in 6 months.
Home builders, though, are becoming more positive in their outlook on the market’s rebound, despite the expiration of the tax credits.
Confidence among residential home builders rose for a second consecutive month in May to its highest level in more than two years, according to the National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index.
The index jumped three points to 22 in May, its highest point since August of 2007.
Builders are hopeful that momentum from the homebuyer tax credits that expired April 30 will carry over into the coming months.
…
Hmmm, we appear to have reached the point where a lot of these indicators reflect the recent past. Meanwhile, the one indicator that everyone in 2009 and early 2010 was saying is always forward looking (the market) seems to tell another story.
It looks like U.S. politicians will wait and play “follow the leader” on British Megabank breakup moves. Or alternatively, we could just keep Megabank, Inc in its current TBTF form, in which case Americans can look forward to endless bailouts and banking piracy until our system of government eventually collapses in a systemically important way.
Europe May 17, 2010, 11:08AM EST
British Banks Still Face Breakup Threat
Though Labour no longer runs Britain, the new government could still implement a Glass Steagall-type bank breakup. But it’s pushing the decision to a commission
By Simon Evans
It was in 1933, just a few years after the Great Crash, that Washington’s politicians inflicted their retribution on Wall Street’s banks for their part in the country’s economic downfall.
JP Morgan (JPM) was split into two – one part commercial, the other the speculative, investment banking arm we know today as Morgan Stanley (MS) – under the Glass Steagall Act on bank reform. Others suffered a similar fate.
Last week George Osborne, the new Chancellor, along with his Lib Dem partner, the Business Secretary Vince Cable, kicked off a process that could see similar vengeance wreaked on the UK’s banking system.
=========================================================
Congress Backs Wall Street, Rejects Big Bank Break-Up
Zach Carter’s picture
By Zach Carter
May 7th, 2010 - 10:01am
Late last night, the U.S. Senate rejected the single most important element of Wall Street reform by a vote of 33 to 61. The SAFE Banking Act would have forced the break-up of the nation’s six largest banks, and dramatically reduced the political clout of America’s financial elite. The 61 votes against the measure are votes in favor of Wall Street’s stranglehold on our economy. No matter what else is ultimately enacted in the name of Wall Street reform, Congress has decided that it will not confront the single greatest problem in the U.S. economy: Too Big To Fail.
On Wednesday, the Senate also voted down a $50 billion Wall Street tax that would have been used to fund the cost of shutting down a major failing bank. By rejecting both the break-up bill and the bank tax, the Senate has punted on ending too-big-to-fail. For now, it appears that Wall Street has emerged from the Great Financial Crash of 2008 with even greater political might than it wielded during the reign of George W. Bush. In the Citizens United era, both Democrats and Republicans have decided they can only get so tough with Corporate America.
Last night, 27 Democrats joined all but three Republicans to vote against breaking up the banks. President Barack Obama opposed both the tax and the break-up measures, and hosted J.P. Morgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon for dinner at the White House on Monday. J.P. Morgan is the largest U.S. bank, and spent more money on lobbying in 2009 than any other bank. House Minority Leader John Boehner (R-OH) has aggressively courted Dimon for campaign cash.
There is literally no economic evidence that megabanks do anything to help the economy that cannot be accomplished with smaller institutions. By contrast, centuries of research has shown that giant banks are destructive. Adam Smith was warning against the dangers of megabanking back in the 18th Century. And the current crisis in Europe– which appears to be deepening by the day– should make those dangers apparent to everyone living in today’s economy. There are plenty of good economic reasons to cut our financial behemoths down to size, and no good reasons not to.
…
Maybe if the Senate was not owned by megabanks…
“”…27 Democrats joined all but three Republicans to vote against breaking up the banks.”
why the republicans hijacked the tea party movement.
Would now be a good time to invest in Thai real estate?
Curfew in Bangkok after surrender of red-shirt leaders
Page last updated at 13:33 GMT, Wednesday, 19 May 2010 14:33 UK
The BBC’s Chris Hogg says fires have been started in some significant locations
Thailand’s authorities have put the capital Bangkok under curfew after red-shirt protest leaders surrendered as troops stormed their barricades.
Smoke was still drifting from fires across the city of 15 million and pockets of resistance were being reported hours after the leaders said they did not want further deaths.
Some 40 people have died since last week, with five killed on Wednesday.
Fires were reported at the stock exchange, banks and a shopping mall.
…
“Fires were reported at the stock exchange, banks…”
Note how in virtually every other country on the planet, the peeps know who the real troublemakers are. Were trouble ever to come to my neighborhood I can assure you that the bank would be last target - as there are no cell phones, liquor, or overpriced gym shoes sold there.
Given the number of guns in this country it’s going to be quite a show if riots like this develope.
I’m weak with laughter, edge.
You forgot rims and TVs.
It’s a Hurricane Katrina housing market!
market pulse
May 19, 2010, 10:00 a.m. EDT
14.01% of mortgages delinquent or in foreclosure
By Amy Hoak
CHICAGO (MarketWatch) — The percentage of loans in foreclosure or with at least one payment past due was a non-seasonally-adjusted 14.01% in the first quarter, down from 15.02% in the fourth quarter of 2009, the Mortgage Bankers Association said on Wednesday. But the seasonally adjusted delinquency rate for mortgages on one- to four-unit residential properties, which includes mortgages at least one payment past due but doesn’t include those in foreclosure, rose to 10.06%, from 9.47%.
Mortgages in the foreclosure process hit a record high at a non-seasonally-adjusted 4.63%, up from 4.58% in the fourth quarter. “The issue this quarter is that the seasonally adjusted delinquency rates went up while unadjusted rates went down,” said Jay Brinkmann, MBA’s chief economist, in a news release. “Delinquency rates traditionally peak in the fourth quarter and fall in the first quarter and we saw that first quarter drop in the data. The question is whether the drop represents anything more than a normal seasonal decline or a more fundamental improvement.”
Is that the Suzanne Researched It guy shown in bed with a woman in the “Friends With Benefits” ad up top?
Does he look underwater?
Maybe he found a new wife who was less…uh…persuasive.
I don’t see how this advice has any value for people on fixed income pensions. They are screwed if the money printing press runs amok.
It’s no big deal to the Fed; they played the same game in the 1970s.
Weekend Investor
May 17, 2010, 7:14 a.m. EDT
Rescue your retirement from inflation’s threat
Take steps now to save your portfolio from drowning
By Sam Mamudi, MarketWatch
NEW YORK (MarketWatch) — The global recession had largely muzzled inflation’s bite, but actions being taken to cure the developed world’s economic ills could revive threats to bond investors and savers and spoil many Americans’ retirement plans.
Record levels of government spending in Europe and the U.S. to prop up flagging economies are seen by many as a recipe for inflation — Public Enemy No. 1 of bond holders and bank accounts. High inflation hurts savings-oriented strategies because rising prices erode consumers’ purchasing power, and consequent interest-rate hikes slam fixed-income investments.
The global debt crisis is in its second stage as governments deal with the debt absorbed from the private sector, and record gold prices have been reflecting these worries, according to SCM Advisors strategist Max Bublitz. Laura Mandaro reports.
“Keeping your assets in cash isn’t going to get it done for you, because they won’t be able to hold their value when there’s inflation,” said James Shelton, chief investment officer of Kanaly Trust in Houston.
…
So what’s it going to be HBBers? Inflation or deflation. I’m still not sure that this question has been settled
Continuation of ZIRP, which is inflation.
We are under huge inflation right now - monetary inflation. Price inflation comes later.
But there will be no wage inflation. That part is key.
Except permanently high unemployment and underemployment, low wages, and rampaging inflation resulting in ever decreasing living standards for most of the population. The banksters will continue to deny everything and numbers will be skewed to hide the obvious.
There are ZERO signs of wage inflation. All kinds of wage pressure in the opposite direction.
At the same time, inflation is mostly of the “stealth” type. Prices are the same, package size if the same, but the actual quantity in the package is shrinking.
There are ZERO signs of wage inflation.
Ahem.
I’m talking about the real world, not the world inhabited by government employees and contractors.
You do realize that most of that spending actually goes to federal contractors, right?
Google “Contractors Now Outnumber Government Employees”
Unfortunately government employment is becoming the real world. The Federal government by itself is now 27% of our GDP.
A bit of a hyperbole admittedly, since its due to a current spike in Keynesian spending - but not too far off the mark in general, especially when you throw in state and local governments, as well as private businesses that are indirectly related to the federal government - e.g. pretty much everything in the DC area, restaurants and stores around military bases, etc.
Some say that government spending is the REAL engine of our so called free market capitalism.
Now what goes good with pork? Potato salad? Beans? Green eggs?
Pondering - there was no wage inflation in the stagflationary 1970s either. There was high unemployment. The monetary inflation occurred prior to the price inflation. Labor costs had no inflation during that time.
I was there. That’s when I first heard the term, “stagflation.” It means stagnate wage with price inflation.
It was the the beginning of the end of hard work being a path to the middle class.
Fed-engineered money printing to offset deflationary pressures until the crisis is over…
Vanguard Prime money market fund, VMMXX I think, yields 0.04%. Nevertheless, I’m building up cash in that to buy stocks when they become undervalued. IMO, sometime between now and the middle of 2012 will be another major low in US stock prices.
“Confidence in the euro is falling because it is becoming clear that the region’s commercial bankers have made the same sorts of bad decisions that American commercial bankers made after 2000. They loaned money to debtors in Eastern Europe who will not be able to repay. These loans were collateralized by real estate, which rose. Real estate prices in Eastern Europe are now falling. The bubble has popped.”
~Gary North
< Dr. North says politicians favor deficits and these deficits are accelerating everywhere. Until trust in government IOUs wanes national debt will increase only to eventually end in default.
In the U.S., as of Monday, the Public Debt was $12,974,895,930,216.56. That’s only $12 billion shy of the $13 trillion mark. Congress has no plan to ever pay it back.
WASHINGTON (AP) — Consumer prices declined in April for the first time in 13 months while core inflation rose over the past year at the slowest pace in 44 years.
The Labor Department said Wednesday that consumer prices edged down 0.1 percent last month, reflecting a big fall in energy prices. Core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy, was flat in April. Over the past 12 months, core inflation is up just 0.9 percent, the smallest increase since 1966. Some economists worry about the possibility of deflation, a destabilizing period of falling prices.
There ’tis - - another whiff of deflation in the air as consumer prices decline ever so slightly in April. Just for the record, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) has declined on an annual basis only twice since 1940…in 1949 and 1955. Only two dips in 70 years!
Historical note: No period of price inflation in the history of humankind ever not stopped.
Not where I live. As of today, grocery prices rose another 15-20% across the board.
Mortgage delinquencies hit 10%
“NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) — A dubious distinction was reached during the first three months of 2010: More than 10% of all mortgage borrowers are now behind on their payments.
The delinquency rate hit a record of 10.06% in the first quarter, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association. The seasonally adjusted rate accounts for all mortgages on properties that have up to four units and that are at least one payment late.”
Wow.
That’s incredible, given the price rise that’s been shown by the Case/Shiller index for the past year, and the unemployment is (supposedly) flat. One would thing delinquencies would be leveling off.
For reference - it was 7.58% just last October.
Way, way more pain ahead.
This temporary rise in house prices resulted from the wealth effect (higher stock prices), spring buying season, and all of the government pumping programs. We are in for a huge price dip, folks. I hope the dip is sufficiently deep that Muggy can buy a nice house in Tampa for $180,000. I doubt that it will be enough for Bear/Stucco/Shoots?Bombthrower to buy in La Jolla and Neil to buy in L.A., but we can hope! Probably the Obama/Fed gang will find another way to slow things down before prices get low enough.
Meanwhile….
a href=”http://money.cnn.com/2010/05/18/news/economy/housing_starts/index.htm”>New home construction surges 41%
“NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) — New home construction skyrocketed 40.9% in April compared to last year, according to a government report released Tuesday.
Housing starts increased to a seasonally-adjusted annual rate of 672,000 last month, the Commerce Department said. That was a 5.8% rise over March 2010.
Economists were expecting housing starts to jump to 655,000.
New construction of single-family homes, the key sector of the housing market, rose 10.2% over the month to an annual rate of 593,000.
New construction of multi-family homes — buildings with 5 or more units — was 68,000.
April was the last month in which sales to first-time home buyers could qualify for a federal tax credit of up to $8,000. Earlier this year lawmakers extended the deadline through April 30 and added a new credit of up to $6,500 for some existing home owners who move.
“The increase in demand prompted by the tax credit has lifted construction,” wrote Ian Shepherdson, economist at High Frequency Economics, in a research note.
“But the expiration of the credit … has made homebuilders wary about continuing to add new homes during the summer,” he said.”"
Wht kind of moron starts building a house in April to satify demand created by a tax credit that expires in….wait for it….April?
They deserve to lose everything including the shirts on their backs. I feel sorry for the innocent offspring.
polly - the tax credit actually expires in June, for closing. April was the deadline for going to contract, but most homes go to contract before building starts or during building.
They want all hush hush and keep it quite. The coast guard had a daily streaming video from BP from the first day of the spill and they never told anybody about it.
Coast Guard and BP threaten journalists with arrest for documenting oil spill
Oil washes up on shore today, but journalists beware: If you are caught photographing, you will be arrested. CBS documents its encounter this morning
I never thought I would say this, but for once I actually agree with Rush Limbaugh. The right-wing radio host is attributed with calling the Gulf Oil Spill “Obama’s Katrina.” It was an odd statement at the time, but now nearly four weeks later, Limbaugh’s brash statement is not at all off the mark.
Today, Louisiana Gov. Bobby Jindal dispensed with his laid-back attitude about the spill and in a local radio interview said that he had made repeated, increasingly desperate pleas to get the Army Corps of Engineers to approve an emergency retaining wall project that would have protected the fragile marshlands of Louisiana from the onslaught of thick oil now oozing out of the Gulf.
These marshlands are often referred to as “the nursery” for good reason — they are the breeding ground for hundreds of species of birds and marine animals and the womb of Louisiana’s fishing industry. They are also the state’s primary buffer against hurricanes. But sadly Jindal’s pleas fell on deaf ears, and this morning around 8 a.m., oil washed up onshore.
The Obama administration, it appears, has higher priorities … namely helping BP in its frantic efforts to keep the public in the dark about what is almost surely the worst environmental catastrophe in U.S. history.
Contacts in Louisiana have given me numerous, unconfirmed reports of cameras and cell phones being confiscated, scientists with monitoring equipment being turned away, and local reporters blocked from access to public lands impacted by the oil spill. But today CBS News got it on video, along with a bone-chilling statement by a Coast Guard official:
http://www.mnn.com/green-tech/research-innovations/blogs/coast-guard-and-bp-threaten-journalists-with-arrest-for-docume
Check out the Friedman op-ed in the NYT where he likens the BP spill not to Katrina (’cause there actually isn’t much of a comparison) but to Sept. 11. It’s a real zinger against the current leadership.
MrBubble
“These are BP’s rules. These are not our rules.”
You have problem with Corporate Communist Capitalism©®™, comrade?
Looks like the stock market is continuing to strengthen (that is to fall closer to the foundation of fair value).
Of course, falling from such a height there is always a risk of sinking through the foundation and sinking toward hell.
Similarly, I expect further strengthening of the U.S. housing market from now through at least 2015, in the form of ever-more-affordable pricing.
None of us should be surprised at the market “correction.”
I can’t help but worry about NAtalie’s portfolio (midcaps, tech and financials).
Honey, please sell into the next bounce. Get 1.5 % in an online savings account. Try the TLT or GLD. For God’s sake don’t throw more money into the rat hole.
People funding their 401k all the way down really reminds me of the underwater homeowner who keeps mailing in his monthly payment as his homevalue continues to drop like a stone.
“People funding their 401k all the way down really reminds me of the underwater homeowner who keeps mailing in his monthly payment as his homevalue continues to drop like a stone.”
I’m funding my 401k all the way down; it just so happens that I’m putting it 100% into money-markets in the hope that I can eventually move it in something else that will keep its value.
It’s now been three years since we got our retirement accounts out of stocks; six months since we’ve been in cash. Looks like what we have and what we save will be our retirement, since I don’t trust any “investment” vehicle at this point.
Power Play Over Immigration Law
LA’s boycott resolution sparks a threat over power the city receives from Arizona May 19, 2010
An Arizona utility commissioner said he’s willing to pull the plug on Los Angeles if the city goes through with a boycott of his state.
In a letter to the city of LA, a member of Arizona’s power commission said he would ask Arizona utility companies to cut off the power supply to Los Angeles. LA gets about 25 percent of its power from Arizona.
“That is one commissioner who has that idea — whether he can do that or not is another idea,” said LA Councilman Dennis Zine. “They are the ones who have to make the move, not us.”
The commissioner’s power grid play is in response to the city’s approval of a resolution directing city staff to consider which contracts with Arizona can be terminated.
Pull the plug.
LA doesn’t want to enforce the law of the nation and actually thinks they have some insane right to punish Arizona for doing so. A turn-around boycott on LA is only fair. Two can play their game!
Empty threats to make a point, I guess. No way in hell they’d ever even seriously consider such a move. The Feds would come down on them like a ton of bricks.
It goes to show the pointlessness of “boycotts”. Like when the Southern Baptist Convention “boycotted” Disney, urging its members to shun Disney vacations and media. I don’t think that Disney ever noticed anything.
This Corporation Commissioner is up for re-election this year. Of course, the political games on both sides of the issue are evident: the trece to uno LA City Council vote, the Pima County (Tucson) sheriff on various news outlets expressing his intent to violate this law, possibly because he is elected in the only large Arizona county where Democrats hold significant sway. So, ethnic pandering plus old-fashioned partisan opposition. The other city/state measures probably fall into those categories as well. A few Florida Republican Congressmen also come to mind.
I guess that they all have their bases. Of course, those who have claimed that the “reasonable suspicion” standard is some racist bs created by Arizona legislators probably need to pick up a book covering the history of search and seizure law in the United States. It is a legal concept that has developed in federal and state courts over many decades.
H&R Block cuts 400 jobs, shuts 400 stores
Tax services provider H&R Block cuts 400 jobs, closes 400 locations to reduce costs ~ May 19, 2010
KANSAS CITY, Mo. (AP) — H&R Block Inc. said Wednesday it will trim 400 jobs and has shut 400 under performing locations as it seeks to reduce costs.
The tax services provider expects the cuts in its field and corporate support organization will cut annual operating costs by $140 million to $150 million by the end of fiscal 2012.
http://homecareworkers.org/images/photos/31242.jpg
This is what I believe TPTB plan on doing to extricate themselves from the current intractable level of indebtedness:
Assumptions, the dollar remains the global reserve currency de rigueur. The massive misallocation of funds to relatively unproductive sectors of the economy doesn’t cause a bigger crash. Off balance sheet transaction allow under reporting of nominal GDP to make it appear that we have 3-5% growth.
The chart shows what happens when the Fed uses quantitative easing in conjuction with purchase of toxic debt, whilst the treasury pumps money into the economy via transfer payments, both to individuals and to states/municipalities. They just need to grow the nominal GDP by 12.5% whilst increasing the debt by only 7.2% (current CBO 10 year forecast)
The overlayed price of gold is just there as a check of my assumptions. If these numbers hold true the debt to GDP comes back into reasonable territory about 2014, not too shabby. Your $50K salary in 2014 will buy you what $31K buys today, and inflation will be reported at somwhere between 2 and 5%, excluding food and fuel.
Nobody uses food and fuel after all, haha!
I think this is about right: massive impoverishment for the people, riches for the elite looters, and all of it bundled into lies.
If we accept the notion that in the future housing will stay unaffordable and the elite will dabble as slumlords, it makes even more sense.
This all makes me wonder…….
Did people recognize during the Great Depression that there actually WAS a Depression going on, and that it was going to be a decade long downturn (and probably longer, if WWII hadn’t happened)?
Did the PTB/media report it as such, or was there a lot of talk about “green shoots” and media/government collusion to avoid reporting bad news, so “those commies wouldn’t take over the country”?
1929, “Happy Days Are Here Again”
From the Wiki:
Today, the song is probably best remembered as the campaign song for Franklin Delano Roosevelt’s (FDR) successful 1932 Presidential campaign. Since FDR’s use of the song, it has come to be recognized as the unofficial theme of the Democratic Party. The lyrics suggest optimism and buoyancy.
Sounds like a 2010 update of the lyrics is in order, from our resident songbirds..
Hi
I am a very infrequent poster but longtime reader. I have a mortgage thru Fifth/Third Bank and have been offered a refi to 4.62% with no closing costs–just a $300 fee. (Presently, I owe $22,900 on my loan–original amount was $121,000. We have refied once to lower the interest rate (9.5% to 6.5% fixed) and went from 30 yr to 15 yr. My payment is $925 of which $480 goes to principle. My wife makes an extra $50/month payment–at this rate it pays off in roughly 4 years.)
Fifth/Third says they are offering this to us as we have excellent credit and a low amount owed. The loan officer says this a gift to those of us who haven’t screwed up financially. I don’t trust the banks much these days.
Is this deal worth doing (or do I continue on my present path–I think I’m doing OK compared to many others I read about here daily.) Appreciate any input.
Compare the costs to the savings to see whether this is worth doing.
In other words, $22.9K * (0.065 - 0.0462) = $430 saved in the first year.
Each subsequent year you rsavings in interest would be less than that, since the balance is declining rapidly.
My guess is that your closing costs will be MUCH higher than the savings. Ask them for the “good faith estimate” of closing costs, and you will see what I mean.
Then do the math. They are only charging you $300 up-front, but they will be rolling several thousand in closing-costs into the mortgage balance.
If I’m wrong about the closing-costs issue (but I bet I’m not), then the other thing to be aware of is that a new note will be on a new 15-year amortization schedule; in other words, by default your contribution to principal would go down significantly (first year is almost all interest).
If you do go ahead with it, then you would need to adjust your payments in order to keep your reduction in principal at the $480/mo level if you want to complete the pay-off in the same amount of time.
They have to have some motivation to do this deal. The only reasons I can think of are that they either want to generate new feeds by closing and selling the new mortgage, or they want to keep you on the hook for longer. Otherwise, it is a losing proposition for them to offer to let you pay less interest for almost no out-of-pocket cost.
I think I can shed a little light on this. I was talking to our lender the other day, and he told me that they are offering this lower interest deal to good customers and that it is government-subsidized. It really is a good deal for a person with a high interest rate, since the fee really is low and there are no closing costs. Pawpaw, you are currently paying $975 per month and will be done in four years. If you take the deal, and get a $22,000 ten-year mortgage at 4.625%, I calculate a payment of $229/month. If you pay an extra $600 per month, your mortgage will be paid off by Nov, 2019. If my calculations are correct, you will be paying about $100 less per month and will have it paid off 1 1/2 years sooner. Talk to your lender and verify.
I love the idea of Pawpaw making a little money off the government’s subsidies.
By the way, I already have a 10-year at 4.625% and am paying ahead so the program didn’t work for me.
Oh, and the other motivation is that the loan officer gets a commission. But that’s ok if Pawpaw comes out ahead.
Whoops, I meant that Pawpaw’s mortgage would be paid off by Nov, 2012.
REhobbyist, you missed the bit where he said his current payment schedule will retire the debt in 4yrs. Why would he want to switch to a schedule that pays it off in 9yrs?
“it is government-subsidized”
I’m also very skeptical of this “it’s government-subsidized” argument; can someone point to the specific government program involved? All new FHA/Freddie/Fannie/Ginny/USDA mortgages are government-subsidized, but I haven’t heard of a government program that encourages zero-cost refis of older mortgages that are current.
Pawpaw, please do report back when you do find out the true “Good Faith Estimate” closing costs. I’m very curious what that will turn up.
Sounds like they are trying to get the government subsidy without using it to “help” the people the program is meant to assist.
If you are on schedule to pay it off in 4 years, I’d say forget it. For that sort of savings, I wouldn’t take the risk that someone with poor typing skills screws up the data entry and mucks up your whole mortgage. Just stick with what you have. Or up your “extra payment” to $100 a month if you can and pay it off in 2 years.
Oh, and if you can get any confirmation that this part of a government program, write a letter complaining to Treasury that the program is being used in an inappropriate way. Hmm…maybe wait until you have finished paying it off before trying to do that.
Is the offer for a fixed rate and for how long? How much are the fees?
Yes, its for a fixed rate but I dont have the duration (sorry! I thought I had thought of everything prior to posting.) The fees were $300–the loan officer was adamant that there were no closing costs. My gut tells me to continue on my present path–Prime Is Contained has made some excellent points–thank you.
They want to change it because you’re paying more than 50% of your payment to principal. They’re hoping you’ll refi and start paying the lower payment amount, of which 90+% is interest.
You can use some of the online amortization calculators to figure out how much interest you will spend if you refinance and keep making the exact same size payments. (But you’ll need to know the terms of the mortgage.) If your ‘required’ payment goes from 925 to 445, you’ll be putting 480 bucks towards principal every month if you keep making payments at 925 a month. And if you add in the extra 50 bucks, you’ll be coming out ahead.
With only 4 years to go, it’s likely you won’t get much value out of the refi, but it’s possible. But make ABSOLUTELY SURE that there is no pre-payment penalty of any kind.
I’m not a mortgage expert (perhaps az_lender or someone can chime in), but I’m pretty sure “no closing costs” loans for the most part hide the fees in your new principle. Though I think in many cases some fees can indeed be bypassed - e.g. title search, credit report, inspection/appraisal, and maybe even government fees.
Don’t get caught up in the “how much a month” hype. If you refi - I’d keep the payoff about the same as current - i.e. 4-5 years or so. If it’s *truly* no-closing costs, then your payments should still go down even if you don’t change the payoff date, because of the significantly-lower interest rate. If they’re trying to push you out to a new 15-year loan or even 10-year I’d say forget it.
Heck - one option might be to take out a short-term 5-year home equity loan, at say 5.0%, just to pay off your current 6.5% loan.
Good job on being a truly responsible mortgage borrower BTW - your kind are fewer and farther between these days. Though - if I may ask - why didn’t you refi down to 5% or so back in the 2003 timeframe when interest rates were that low?
If you are at a casino and you are playing blackjack, do you take insurance? If you are at the craps table, do you take the place bets?
No, because they are sucker bets. [Granted, the entire casino is a sucker's bet]. The things that the house “gives” above and beyond the normal game are even more sucker-ish.
I would be wary of changing your mortgage since the Jolly Bankers aren’t in it for you.
I would be wary of changing your mortgage since the Jolly Bankers aren’t in it for you.
Sometimes though a bank can make money for itself and for the borrower, if they steal the business (the loan) from another bank. This can happen if interest rates have come down enough. So the loser in this case is the previous owner of the loan, who no longer collects the interest on the higher-rate loan.
Yes. I assumes that it was the 5/3 or 3/5 (?) bank wanting to modify the mortgage that they already hold with pawpawmi, which seems super fishy. Now that I re-read the post and considering what you wrote, it might not be as insidious (as I want it to be).
MrBubble
May 19 (Bloomberg) — Goldman Sachs Group Inc. racked up trading profits for itself every day last quarter. Clients who followed the firm’s investment advice fared far worse.
Seven of the investment bank’s nine “recommended top trades for 2010” have been money losers for investors who adopted the New York-based firm’s advice, according to data compiled by Bloomberg from a Goldman Sachs research note sent yesterday. Clients who used the tips lost 14 percent buying the Polish zloty versus the Japanese yen, 9.4 percent buying Chinese stocks in Hong Kong and 9.8 percent trading the British pound against the New Zealand dollar.
Global Cooling Is Coming — and Beware the Big Chill, Scientist Warns
FOXNews.com
Contrary to the commonly held scientific conclusion that the Earth is getting warmer, a scientist who has written more than 150 peer-reviewed papers has unveiled evidence for his prediction that global cooling is coming soon.
The hottest new trend in climate change may be global cooling, some researchers say.
Contrary to the commonly held scientific conclusion that the Earth is getting warmer, Dr. Don Easterbrook, emeritus professor of geology at Western Washington University and author of more than 150 peer-reviewed papers, has unveiled evidence for his prediction that global cooling is coming soon.
“Rather than global warming at a rate of 1 F per decade, records of past natural cycles indicate there may be global cooling for the first few decades of the 21st century to about 2030,” said Easterbrook, speaking on a scientific panel discussion with other climatologists. This, he says, will likely be followed by “global warming from about 2030 to 2060,” which will then be followed by another cooling spell from 2060 to 2090.
Easterbrook spoke before a group of about 700 scientists and government officials at the fourth International Conference on Climate Change. The conference is presented annually in Chicago by the Heartland Institute, a conservative nonprofit think tank that actively questions the theory of man’s role in global warming. Last year the Institute published Climate Change Reconsidered, a comprehensive reply to the United Nations’ latest report on climate change.
“Global warming is over — at least for a few decades,” Easterbrook told conference attendees. “However, the bad news is that global cooling is even more harmful to humans than global warming, and a cause for even greater concern.”
MrBubble response (AKA The Take Down with Back Points)
Let’s break it down, shall we, since you, as usual, started this.
“a scientist who has written more than 150 peer-reviewed papers” — Not one of these has anything to do with anthropegonic climate change. It would be like a Sanskrit scholar writing on fauvism.
“The hottest new trend in climate change may be global cooling, some researchers say.” — Non-attributional quote. Very sub-standard journalist, but par for the course. Faux usually justs reports on the news that they make anyway.
““global warming from about 2030 to 2060,” which will then be followed by another cooling spell from 2060 to 2090.” — Even if this were true (Unfricking-believably HUGE if), he still predicts ~0.3 C warming by the end of the century. So much for “global cooling”.
“International Conference on Climate Change” So close to the International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), yet so, so far. It’s like comparing the anti-gay, fringe American College of Pediatricians to the American Academy of Pediatricians. Laughable/shameful.
His new “paper” was “published” in Climate Depot. Nice! [Oh, that's because the "Man" is afraid that he's right and they'd all lose funding, man!]
“Heartland Institute” Oooh-wee! Just from wiki alone, “Oil companies have contributed substantially to the Heartland Institute. ExxonMobil contributed a total of $560,000 between 1998 and 2005. This included $119,000 in 2005, ExxonMobil’s largest gift to Heartland in that period. Nearly 40% of funds from ExxonMobil were specifically designated for climate change projects… During the time that the Heartland Institute was contesting the health risks of secondhand smoke, it received significant funding from Philip Morris.” Of course.
“Last year the Institute published Climate Change Reconsidered, a comprehensive reply to the United Nations’ latest report on climate change.” Hey, I published a letter in Penthouse Letters called “Lloyd the Stable Boy”. Am I now a sexpert?
The soon-to-be MrsBubble would argue that point.
MrBubble
PS: Love that Fox headline: “Scientist warns” If only they could move the “s” from “warms” onto “scientist”. Desperation is a stinky colgne. Yes, that is a Super Trooper quote. Taste it.
Environmentalists pay for scientists to generate worst case scenarios (and spit out continuous “press releases”), forecasting the “end of the world as we know it” if people don’t obey their party line. All of this science is dutifully presented as undisputed fact, no matter how outlandish the claims/predictions.
Businesses fight fire with fire, and do the same, hiring scientists to discredit/poke holes in/fabricate data to support their position.
Somewhere in the middle is the truth.
It would be nice if environmentalists would admit that the reason there is so much BS science, is because it is a defensive tactic against the BS science coming out of their camp.
A lot of businesses have moved their operations overseas, voting on US environmental regs “with their feet”.
Environmentalists have their own problem, shouting that “the sky is falling” too much, underestimating the cost of compliance, and over promising on the benefits.
“Environmentalists pay for scientists to generate worst case scenarios (and spit out continuous “press releases”)”
Of course they do. However, Science, Nature, PNAAS, JGR, etc., etc. do not. Sure there are some ads and there’s grant money. But that’s always been the way. It didn’t get in the way of discovering plate tectonics (that delay was from lack of evidence until Morely)
I fear that you misconstrue politics and voting with science. Sure, somewhere in the middle is the truth with regulation, policy, politics, social issues, etc. But if I said that g = 9.8 m/s2 and someone from the Heartland Institute said that is is 8.9 m/s2, is the truth still somewhere in the middle? Not for the astronauts aboard the S.S. X-GSfixr. Adios!
If people are tired of regulations, sure they can vote with their feet. But it’s apples and oranges (again)! Regulations and policy to deal with a scientific likelihood bordering on certainty has nothing to do with the science itself.
This is so often where the breakdown in the discussion occurs. People don’t like the (proposed) reulations so they make up stories that “it’s just them greedy scientists” making up cap-n-trade!! Look, it doesn’t matter that people and businesses are sick of gravity; it happens. I know that you’re scared of the regulations, but that’s not what I’m talking about. It’s the science and the evidence and the preponderance is on the side of global warming. If someone were to show that it’s not happening, they would be the most famous scientist in the land. And, trust me, it’s not money that drives these guys. It’s ego and fame (in their circles)
And the sky isn’t falling. It’s just going to get hotter.
PNAAS = PNAS (Proceedings of the Nat Acad of Scientists)
GGot oover eexcited!
Not for the astronauts aboard the S.S.
Actually, at 250 miles altitude, g is approximately 8.5 m/s2. Sorry, I had to.
Heh. Well played, sir. I was going to get all krazy and change m1 by claiming that I have an osmium ship full of fat people, but when you’re right, you’re right. [That would do it, right? To have the same F, you'd need to increase m1 if you're also increasing r. I'm not THAT rusty, am I?]
“…….misconstrue politics and voting with science………”
Really, are you that naive?
When government got into “playing favorites” by using regulatory, government funding, and tax policy to pick winners and losers, everybody had to start playing the game, in order to survive economically. So everyone has been massaging their data, to influence policy.
The environmental lobby has a long history of pushing thru regulation to fix a perceived “problem”, but never bother helping out with a economically viable “solution”. Unless the solution is to have the economy revert back to some kind of pre-industrial, agricultural-based lifestyle.
Sorry…..I like the 21st century for the most part.
Take Methyl Ethyl Ketone for example. We use it in the aerospace industry to clean parts. It’s nasty stuff, that nobody particularly likes using. But we use it, because every “environmentally friendly” product designed to replace it only works half as good, and costs twice as much.
The only reason we get to keep using it is because we are a “safety-critical” business. If I’m repairing a carbon fiber aileron or elevator, I’m not using anything but MEK, because I’m not confident enough to sign my name to a repair that has used anything else, because I can’t be sure it has been cleaned adequately before I lay up the repair.
Of course, I’m not a scientist. I just have to live with the aftermath. And in my experience, the environmentalists (among many other lobbies) have consistently over-promised the benefits, and under-estimated the costs of complying with the regulations they push.
A lot of businesses have moved their operations overseas, voting on US environmental regs “with their feet”.
Yep.
e.g. info on Kyoto Protocol - requirements for industrialized (Annex I) vs. non-industrialized (non-Annex I) countries.
In several large developing countries and fast growing economies (China, India, Thailand, Indonesia, Egypt, and Iran) GHG emissions have increased rapidly (PBL, 2009).[47] For example, emissions in China have risen strongly over the 1990-2005 period, often by more than 10% year. Emissions per-capita in non-Annex I countries are still, for the most part, much lower than in industrialized countries. Non-Annex I countries do not have quantitative emission reduction commitments, but they are committed to mitigation actions. China, for example, has had a national policy programme to reduce emissions growth, which included the closure of old, less efficient coal-fired power plants.
(emphasis mine)
That’s why treaties such as Kyoto preclude free trade, because they give unfair advantages to some countries.
While the U.S. didn’t ratify Kyoto, we have subjected ourselves to much greater regulations than have China, India, Indonesia, etc., and as a result have reduced our greenhouse gas production. However in this process we’ve outsourced the bulk of our manufacturing to countries that aren’t subject to these regs.
So they move their businesses overseas, raising American unemployment.
You know, the country that relies on a 75% consumer driven economy and is the BIGGEST market in the world?
Smart, that.
I have yet to see a report that will convince me that bad air, water and food are a good thing. Can any of you explain why those would be good?
“a scientist who has written more than 150 peer-reviewed papers” — Not one of these has anything to do with anthropegonic climate change.
Wrongo. Look at his publications page:
myweb dot wwu dot edu/dbunny/pubs.htm
The only thing on that page that might fit the bill of discussing anthropegenic cliamte change (as I wrote above) is:
“Easterbrook, D.J., 2005, Causes and effects of abrupt, global, climate changes and global warming: Geological Society of America, Abstracts with Program, v.”
And that’s a GSA abstract! Not peer reviewed at all. Cripes, even I had an abstract at AGU. In other words, not that hard!
Fail.
I’ve got an hour and a half to tango with you deniers and I’m in a foul mood (not even from this wanton scientific ignorance). Bring it, talking point boys!
MrBubble
So you managed to misspell anthropogenic two different ways in two posts, and you accuse others of wanton scientific ignorance. I guess that’s the best we can expect from a global cooling denier.
Anthrupomogenic
Anthropugenic
Anthrepiginic
Shoot, you can almost tell what it is without any vowels “nthrpgnc”
That’s all you got? Spelling mistakes? No counter to my comment other than that.
So strugglin’.
“……tangle with you deniers…….”
Who said I was a denier?
If scientists would stick to science, instead of trying to influence policy by making Chicken Little pronouncements, they would have a lot more credibility with JQ Public.
And this “You aren’t smart enough to understand” attitude sounds an awful lot like the crap spewed from Wall Street the past 20 years.
It would just be nice if somewhere along the line, regulators/government did a little cost/benefit anaylsis before they forced other people to spend billions of dollars, for what could easily marginal improvements.
A question to climate change skeptics. What, specifically, is the motivation behind the propagation of the climate change myth?
Too late to answer?
Money, and power/control.
As usual.
Take “carbon trading”. Please. If carbon emissions are bad, then tax carbon emitting fuels. Tax it enough, and you reduce consumption, or someone develops a replacement.
Instead, they came up with this “carbon trading” scheme. Which will require a whole bunch of overhead to track/trade/monitor. Good place for all the laid off realtors, Mortgage brokers, banksters to go. They’ve already demonstrated their proficiency with make-believe numbers.
What, specifically, is the motivation behind the propagation of the climate change myth?
Google “carbon credits” and “goldman sachs” for a good-sized portion of the answer.
(For a teaser - you’ll get about 45,000 results)
Not that I necessarily believe that global
warmingclimate change is a myth - I don’t actually believe strongly one way or the other. But (aside from whether or not it’s happening) I think whether or not it’s man-caused is very questionable, I think its negative effects are overblown, and I also think there’s little if any we could do about it - even if we decided we should do something about it.Justice Department Investigating Hamptons NY Property Market.
May 19 (Bloomberg) — The U.S. Justice Department is seeking information about real estate listings and home sales in the Hamptons, the New York beach resorts frequented by Wall Street financiers and Hollywood celebrities, said Jonathan Lerner, managing director of property broker Engel & Volkers.
Lerner received a Justice Department letter requesting information about how properties are marketed in the towns on Long Island’s East End, he said in a telephone interview yesterday. The April letter sought documents outlining how brokers disseminate property listings and to whom, Lerner said.
“The question I think the Justice Department is asking is: Are they putting their own profits ahead of what they should be doing for the clients?” Lerner said.
Hamptons home sales more than doubled in the first quarter, the biggest annual increase in seven years of record keeping, according an April 22 report by New York-based appraiser Miller Samuel Inc. and broker Prudential Douglas Elliman Real Estate. A shift toward larger, more expensive homes pushed the median price up 35 percent to $908,500.
no offense but…shouldn’t the justice department have bigger fish to fry?
Millions of dollars of possible mortgage fraud not big enough?
The Squid did what?!??
As the housing crisis mounted in early 2007, Goldman Sachs was busy selling risky, mortgage-related securities issued by its longtime client, Washington Mutual, a major bank based in Seattle.
Although Goldman had decided months earlier that the mortgage market was headed for a fall, it continued to sell the WaMu securities to investors. While Goldman put its imprimatur on that offering, traders in the same Goldman unit were not so sanguine about WaMu’s prospects: they were betting that the value of WaMu’s stock and other securities would decline.
http://www.nytimes.com/2010/05/19/business/19client.html?pagewanted=1&hp
The nice thing about begin able to make your own economic weather is that you can bet on rain then cash in on the storm you created by setting up clients to bear the losses on bad gambles.
I’m thinking of one of those old cartoons where the client’s visage fades out and is replaced by a giant lollypop (sucker).
Nope, no insider knowledge advantage there. Nope. None whatsoever.
Gold Prices Sink as Investors Go for Cash ~ May 19, 2010
NEW YORK (TheStreet ) — Gold prices sank Wednesday to below $1,200 as investors sold gold for cash to cover losses as Germany’s ban on naked short-selling spooked markets.
Gold for June delivery was down $22.70 to $1,191.90 an ounce at the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange. The gold price Wednesday has traded as high as $1,228.20 and as low as $1,186.60. The U.S. dollar index was slipping 0.84% to $86.65 as the euro rallied slightly rising 1.01% to $1.23 against the dollar, which some experts consider fair value for the currency. The gold spot price Wednesday was sinking over $33, according to Kitco’s gold index.
What Happens If Greece Leaves the Euro ~ May 19, 2010
Provided by ~ The Atlantic
The European Union experiment could be coming to an end. As the euro continues to slide, a wide range of interested parties — from international investors to op-ed pages — are seriously considering the once unthinkable: Greece might become the first country to drop the euro.
Last week the EU and the European Central Bank unveiled a trillion-dollar bailout plan to stem the “contagion” from Greece’s colossal debt burden, but there is not enough money to back up Europe’s debts. Greece will almost certainly default and switch to a cheaper currency to avoid a long and painful recession.
Here are two reasons why Greece will have to leave the euro and three reasons why it will still be in a world of hurt (thanks to AEI’s Desmond Lachman):
2 Reasons for Greece to Bail
(…really, two sides of the same coin)
1) Wages Must Fall. Wages and prices in Greece will have to fall by nearly 20 percent for the country to regain competitiveness. There are a couple ways to achieve that. One is a deep, lasting, painful recession. How deep, lasting and painful? As Paul Krugman notes, “unemployment has risen from 6 percent before the crisis to 22.3 percent now — and wages are, indeed, falling. But even in Latvia labor costs have fallen only 5.4 percent from their peak; so it will take years of suffering to restore competitiveness.” There is another way. Drop the euro, move to a currency you can control and devalue like crazy.
http://finance.yahoo.com/banking-budgeting/article/109583/what-happens-if-greece-leaves-the-euro?sec=topStories&pos=7&asset=&ccode=
Douglas County votes to charge fees for school-bus rides
9News ~ 05/19/2010
PARKER — Parents in Colorado’s third-largest school district are being asked to pay if their kids want to ride the bus to school.
The Douglas County school board voted 5-0 Tuesday night to approve a 50-cent-per-ride transportation fee starting next school year. The decision will affect about 17,000 students who ride the bus this year. The district hopes to raise $2 million with the program.
The buses will have Zonar GPS units to track student ridership. Students will have a card or a ZPass that will track their use of the bus.
Douglas County Schools will have to pay $221,000 in three equal installments over the next three years to fully implement the GPS tracking technology. That cost covers the system as a
Post Poll - On The Bus
Do you think parents or guardians of children who attend public schools should be charged for their kids to ride the bus to school? Read a related article.
“Cost per bus will likely vary, as some may require more updating than others,” said Dianna Miguez, communications specialist for Douglas County Schools.
We had 30 ride punch cards in the early 70s in a community that probably had one of the easier budgets in the area. Back then it was $20 per card.
The density of busstops in our neighborhood allows most parents to watch the kids from their doorstep. When I was growing up in another state our closest bus stop was about a 1/4 mile away. Just yesterday our community voted to raise taxes for new buses. Well actually our community mostly decided not to bother voting. The few that showed up, probably mostly parents, decided to raise taxes.
Stupid……they are going to spend $660K to generate 2 mil (a year?) in revenue?
2 million, divided by 17K = $117.64 per student. = $13 bucks a month (9 month).
According to Wiki, Douglas County has a median family income (2007 estimate) of almost $103,000.
Somebody is getting a kickback, somewhere. Who owns Zonar GPS?
This assumes, of course, that a two million dollar raise in the transportation budget is legit.
A local government setting up a political favor/BIL contract?
No way dude!
92646 school district cut bus service to and from school years ago. I guess if they can get a GPS company to co-sponsor it, that’s a sweet deal for parents. Driving your kids to and from school every single day gets really old, not to mention creates some of the worst driving conditions I have ever witnessed in my entire life.
Carmakers agree to make electric cars noisier.
NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) — Automakers and advocates for the blind have agreed on a plan to address an unintended problem caused by electric and hybrid cars: They endanger sight-impaired and distracted pedestrians because they make no noise when running on electric power.
The groups joined together to present Congress with a proposal for minimum noise levels that future electric cars would have to make.
Sometimes even sighted pedestrians can be unaware of the cars’ approach.
“As a person who walks my dog in Virginia, where there are no sidewalks, I’ve been startled by hybrid cars, too,” said Gloria Bergquist, vice president of the Alliance of Automobile Manufacturers.
I think they should be equipped with speakers that make the “Jetsons car” sound.
I’m thinking equip them all with a Dixie horn (ala Dukes of Hazzard).
No?
I admit the humor factor of forcing the Prius demographic to ride to the sound of “Dixie”. Somehow I don’t think it would be good for sales, though.
available at wolohornsusa -dot-com
I’ll bet Gloria gets startled by all kinds of things.
These fignuts. What part of look both ways did they miss out on? It’s called culling the herd. Move the polar bears off the ice floes and into the city, quickly.
I have my own scientific theory.
Up until about 1970 or thereabouts, the government let Darwin’s Theory run it’s course, and stupid people killed themselves (either figuratively, or literally) by doing stupid things.
Then, government started protecting stupid people from killing themselves. Which has the effect of being all-out subsidies for all kinds of stupid behavior.
And what government subsidizes, you get more of it.
Fifty years from now, “Idiocracy” will be considered a documentary.
You mean it’s not?
That’s just tarded.
New Darwinian Theory:
In the long run, governments which subsidize idiocy go extinct.
I almost ran into a Prius while on my morning run. Running uphill, so head down, the car was coming down the hill, saw what I was doing, stopped, and I still came within about a foot before I got a glimpse of the car. I absolutely never heard it. I was able to sidestep but still felt and looked pretty stupid.
Walking buddies and I were just talking about this. Decided my hybrid, should I choose to get one, will have to sound like a 302 V8, I still miss that engine!
I’m nimble and I can run, and pretty OCD about looking both ways, but the electric cars do sneak up.
Don’t play in the street and remember to look both ways.
Geez.
That would take responsible behavior wouldn’t it? What about the poor people who can barely see? What about people who can’t turn their necks due to injury? What about kids who don’t know any better? What about elderly who have lost their senses?
Seriously though - it’s not like there aren’t a lot of quite quiet non-hybrid cars out there. Seems to me this is a non-issue.
no one seems to be able to hear my 97 honda civic either.
Fed Sees Slightly Better 2010 Economy- AP
Federal Reserve officials have a slightly brighter view of the economy than they did at the start of the year. Fed officials say in a new forecast that they think the economy can grow between 3.2 percent and 3.7 percent this year.
I would love to see interest rates grow 3.2 to 3.7 percent this year.
Just listened to an RE banking guy calling into a radio show. Didn’t say what bank or group he worked for, however he said the jump in delinquencies and homes moving into foreclosure is climbing fast. Especially in high/higher end white collar homes. He sees a big old double dip coming.
Our favorite mortgage reset chart showed that a huge number of Alt-A/Liar loans were resetting in 2010-2011.
I expect the white collar types to bail more/faster than the J6P types. Because they are so “business-saavy”.
Some white collar folks NEED to feel a little more pain and lot less smug.
Hey Guys,
Here is an idea for California: make it illegal to hire people off street corners and parking lots. Consider it an illegal hiring practice punishable with 1000$ fine plus confiscation of vehicles. Have to hire at an office for employment.
That would do a lot to curb the illegal problems.
It would also probably crash the San Diego economy even worse than it already has crashed.
or make it illegal for hotels, restaurants, food packing, farmers, and meat processors to hire illegals. easy to find and catch them IF they wanted to. but they dont. Don’t believe the hype.
The S.F. wine’os need to step up to the plate and get to drinking more…
Diageo Shutters Rosenblum Winery, Moves Production to Napa
Zinfandel specialist losing its longtime Bay Area home in corporate cost-cutting ~ May 19, 2010 ~S.F. Gate
Rosenblum Cellars’ winemaking facility in San Francisco’s East Bay is closing, the first casualty of belt-tightening by international drinks giant Diageo.
Diageo will relocate Rosenblum’s production to Beaulieu Vineyards in Napa Valley, a company spokeswoman said, but Rosenblum’s existing tasting room in Alameda will remain open. Diageo will also close a satellite tasting room just off Healdsburg Plaza in Sonoma County.
Diageo announced May 12 that it is restructuring its U.S. wine business, Diageo Chateau & Estate wines. The changes include the layoffs of 93 employees, mostly from various winery visitors’ centers, according to spokeswoman Zsoka McDonald.
Beauty Parlor Speeder Hits 102 MPH
Late for appointment, a 72-year-old South Carolina woman is nabbed
MAY 19–Late for a hair appointment, a 72-year-old South Carolina woman yesterday careened across a highway at speeds in excess of 100 mph, nearly hitting another vehicle, before being collared for reckless driving. When a cop caught up to Sandra Powell’s vehicle at an intersection, she “was upset because she was late for a hair appointment,” according to a City of Union Police Department report. When Sgt. Richard Powers asked if she knew how fast she was going (in a 45 mph zone), Powell “stated yes, that she was going 100MPH.” Powell, was booked yesterday morning into the county jail on a misdemeanor rap. A personal property receipt shows that she was carrying a green purse and $20 when busted.
Someone give the woman a Jitterbug! Maybe she can get her granddaughter to program it for her.
A personal property receipt shows that she was carrying a green purse and $20 when busted.
LOL - WTF?
Why Rand Paul’s Win Is A Horrible Sign For The Stock Market
siliconalleyinsider ~Joe Weisenthal~ May 19, 2010
Republicans are surely going to spin last night’s primary elections as a huge night for the right, and a big rejection of Obamaism, but it wasn’t that exactly.
The Tea Party right did very well with the victory of Rand Paul, but so did the left — the moderate Arkansas Senator Blanche Lincoln is headed to a runoff against her more progressive opponent.
Basically, the night was a big rejection of the status quo, which is great! We need a shakeup, and we’re actually very enthusiastic about Rand Paul, who we feel pretty sure will not be a sellout.
But let’s face it: Right now this economy is addicted to free candy from Washington DC. It may not be sustainable, and an economy addicted to government money is necessarily going to be undynamic, but corporate America has loved the stimulus and its shown up in stocks.
But American austerity is coming. Well, we’re not going to get a true “austerity budget” with massive chunks of spending taken off. But we are going to get a kind of austerity, whereby the here-and-there bailouts (states, teachers, jobs programs, etc.) will be a lot less forthcoming.
If you want a bailout, you better get it in the next few months.
In the past, it’s been a common cliché that DC gridlock is good for stocks. That needs to be thrown out the window. We saw how stocks reacted to the momentary gridlock after Scott Brown, and we’re seeing how markets are reacting to austerity in the UK and Spain (hint: not good).
Tony, the L.A. mayor is a punk.
L.A. Mayor Dismisses Warning That Arizona Could Cut Off Power Over Boycott.
Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa on Wednesday defiantly rejected a warning by a top Arizona utilities official that the state could cut off power to Los Angeles should the city proceed with its boycott of all things Arizona.
Spokesman David Beltran told Fox News that the message didn’t even warrant a response.
“We’re not going to respond to threats from a state which has isolated itself from the America that values freedom, liberty and basic human rights,” Beltran said.
That was after Gary Pierce, a commissioner on the five-member Arizona Corporation Commission, wrote a letter to Villaraigosa slamming his City Council’s decision to boycott the Grand Canyon State — in protest of its immigration law — by suspending official travel there and ending future contracts with state businesses.
Noting that a quarter of Los Angeles’ electricity comes from Arizona power plants, Pierce threatened to pull the plug if the City Council does not reconsider.
“Doggone it — if you’re going to boycott this candy store … then don’t come in for any of it,” Pierce told FoxNews.com.
In the letter, he ridiculed Villaraigosa for saying that the point of the boycott was to “send a message” by severing the “resources and ties” they share.
“I received your message; please receive mine. As a statewide elected member of the Arizona Corporation Commission overseeing Arizona’s electric and water utilities, I too am keenly aware of the ‘resources and ties’ we share with the city of Los Angeles,” Pierce wrote.
Go Arizona, make their day……..
California has been doing a “cram-down” on the rest of the lower 48 for years, because manufacturers have to play CYA due to California regs for years. They don’t want to make two sets of products, one for the California market, another for the rest of us. So everybody gets to indirectly subsidize California environmental and safety regs, whether we want/need them or not.
God, I am glad I’m moving the hell out of the city.
Landmines on the border!
Make it illegal to hire people off street corners and in parking lots.
Deportations.
End NAFTA.
James, I’m sorry I missed it. Where ya movin’ to? Best of luck in your move.
The obvious is making a comeback.
http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/blogs/ontheblock/detail?entry_id=63926&tsp=1
With the help of data compiled by rent.com, CBS MoneyWatch worked out the five best cities for renting instead of owning a property, and found that San Francisco was at the top of the list. The tool used was a “rent ratio” devised by rent.com which takes the purchase price of a home and divides it by the annual rent of a home of similar size, shape and amenities, and located in the same neighborhood.
Thus, in a market where a 3-bedroom home costs $500,000 to buy but $24,000 per year to rent, the rent ratio is 21.
San Francisco’s rent ratio is 37. According to the report, it can cost twice as much to own in San Francisco as it does to rent.”It varies by neighborhood, but renting could be a much better decision financially than buying,” said Peggy Abkemeier, CEO of Rent.com.
So, hmm. Ahhh. I have one question about all of this. I mean the bailouts, crashes, firings, rotten drywall, HELOCs, subprime, AIG, …, all of it.
One question.
Only one.
Is Suzanne hot?
Roidy
Have you seen the size of her garage?
Gotta get rid of that “stigma”…
Feds try to take away stigma of food stamps.
Agriculture Dept. launches program encouraging stores to accept them.
WASHINGTON - Attention food stamp recipients: Your business is appreciated.
The Agriculture Department announced Wednesday it will encourage grocery stores and other retail outlets that accept food stamps to post signs reading “We Welcome SNAP Benefits.” The move is part of an effort to decrease the stigma of using government food assistance in a tough economy.
Attempts to reduce such stigmas have been ongoing for years. SNAP is an acronym for the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program, a recent name change designed to get away from the loaded phrase “food stamps.” Electronic Benefits Transfer, or EBT, is an electronic way of paying for items so it just appears that a customer is using a credit card.
The new signs are also meant to encourage a bit of economic stimulus. According to USDA, which oversees domestic food assistance, every $5 in new SNAP benefits generates as much as $9.20 in economic activity. Almost all benefits are redeemed within one month.
“Underscoring that SNAP benefits are welcome, rather than merely accepted, signals an important change in the way both retailers and program participants view these benefits,” said Agriculture Secretary Tom Vilsack.
You would not believe what we had to go through with an insurance company when this happen to our family in Kansas:
http://news.yahoo.com/video/us-15749625/hail-storm-hits-oklahoma-19917666
Maybe now, they be less incredulous…