May 24, 2010

Greed Broke The Moral Compass In California

CBS 12 Action News reports from California. “Once the largest home builder in Chico, Paradise resident Tony Symmes struck a bad deal to sell a number of his newly built homes that weren’t moving. Garett Gililland already indicted for another mortgage fraud scheme came to Symmes with a plan. Both agreed to inflate the prices of the new homes $40,000-$60,000 and then sell them to straw buyers. Chico homeowners living in some of the areas where Symms’ company Aspire Homes built are now feeling the effects. Not only are dozens of the homes foreclosed on bringing down the value of the neighborhoods, but the whole scheme drove up the original cost of new homes.”

“Butte County District Attorney Mike Ramsey says, ‘Some bought their homes for artificially inflated prices in a comparable analysis paid way too much and it hurt them when the housing market bubble burst. Mr. Symmes was quoted during the investigation noting greed broke his moral compass.’”

The Voice of San Diego. “In North San Diego County, Jim McConville picked up condos for a low price from distressed developers and arranged for them to be sold to buyers who’d rented their identities to him, our investigation showed. By arranging high purchase prices, McConville could pay off the developers and rake in a chunk of money for himself on each condo. McConville couldn’t let the banks making the mortgages know that he was sucking at least $120,000 each out of more than 80 condo sales in Escondido and San Marcos in 2008. He got the help he needed, federal prosecutors say, from Bay Area escrow officer Donna Demello of Stewart Title of California.”

“The indictment doesn’t answer some questions we still have, like who performed the appraisals on the properties that dramatically overvalued the condos two years into the real estate slump. Nor does it name anyone involved in renting the condos out to tenants. McConville’s team of conspirators illegally continued to collect rent even after he’d stopped making the mortgage payments, the prosecutors say.”

“The indictment says, ‘Members of the conspiracy obtained and provided to the mortgage lenders materially false and misleading appraisals that inflated the value of the real property secured by the loans to Straw Buyers.’”

The Appeal Democrat. “In small towns with big dreams, things can get complicated. Take Live Oak, for example, where the housing boom has left some unfinished business behind. For Live Oak, it’s a $5.6 million question. Will the city get the money it says it’s owed — plus interest — for a subdivision that ran aground?”

“According to the court filing, Pacific Mountain financed the project with loans from a North Carolina Bank, RBC Centura. Sometime in late 2007, according to the court papers, Pacific Mountain stopped work on the project. In an October 2008 letter to Live Oak, an RBC official said the company, which acquired the property through foreclosure, ‘is interested in working with the city to preserve its property interests and protect public health and safety. Please note the RBC is not interested in consenting to the property reverting to acreage.’”

The Sacramento Bee. “Think of it like buying a house with a hefty mortgage that looked good when home prices were spiraling upward – but threatens to pull you under now that the housing market has tanked and your pay has been cut. Sacramento-area governments amassed billions of dollars in debt in recent years, issuing bonds as a quick means of raising money. Now that times are leaner, the principal and interest local governments must pay on the bonds in many cases are competing for dwindling funds with basic public services, a Bee analysis shows.”

“Mandy Morello doesn’t believe her local school board did much long-term thinking before putting two large bond measures in front of voters several years ago. Then, it closed 10 of those newly improved schools between 2004 and 2009 because of declining enrollment. Morello had two children at Roberts Elementary in Fair Oaks when it closed in 2005. ‘We bought a home a block away from it,’ she said. ‘It was an amazing school. The year that Roberts closed, they had paved the parking lot, painted the school, new sprinkler system – and then they close it.’”

The Bakersfield Californian. “Kern County is threatening to halt several major development projects in the city of Bakersfield, claiming they aren’t paying for the county fire stations, libraries and parks that their new homes and stores will demand. A consultant for Stockdale Ranch Developer Castle & Cooke drafted a report arguing land prices the county of Kern uses in its calculations are dramatically high, born out of the CIP’s early days in the middle of the housing market boom.”

‘County Development Services Director Ted James said the bottom line is local government has not, historically, demanded that development pay for all of the impacts that it had on government. Things have changed, James said: ‘We don’t have adequate streams of revenue.’ The county and development groups will continue to search for a way to handle growth impacts and end the conflict. ‘It’s either that or we have to lower our standards,’ James said. ‘How do we do that and make sure the public understands we can’t provide the level of service we have in the past?’”

Los Cerritos News. “The State of California required the Cerritos Redevelopment Agency to make a payment of $11,812,007 to the Los Angeles County Auditor on May 10, a result of the State’s decision to raid $2.05 billion in local redevelopment funds. To make the payment, the Cerritos Redevelopment Agency borrowed the funds from its Low- and Moderate-Income Housing Fund. ‘The State of California continues to live beyond its means and California’s cities are paying the consequences,’ said Cerritos Mayor Joseph Cho.”

The LA Daily News. “Banks and other lenders will have to maintain foreclosed homes or face a $1,000-a-day fine under an ordinance approved Friday. Officials estimate there are at least 100,000 homes in some state of foreclosure in Los Angeles County. ‘I hope this will send a message to the banks that they should work to keep people in their homes,’ said Councilman Bill Rosendahl, who asked for a breakdown of foreclosed properties and their owners.”

The San Francisco Chronicle. “Struggling homeowners who get a loan modification to reduce their mortgage payments are often unaware that it can seriously ding their credit score. Moreover, if they don’t get long-term help, the temporary loan mod can bury them in a deeper hole of debt. When demand began to slump for Victor Mendez’s tile contracting work, he and his wife asked their bank, JPMorgan Chase, for a loan mod. ‘They said, ‘We can’t help you until you’re late,’ said Patricia Mendez.”

“Because Victor Mendez’s work requires him to buy supplies, the poor credit was devastating. They had to juggle even more to come up with cash to buy work supplies, even cashing in an IRA. Then, after 10 months, they got a letter from Chase saying they had been denied for permanent help and now owed $44,000 in past-due amounts and fees.”

The Contra Costa Times. “Though the nine-county Bay Area’s median sales price of $370,000 was up 21.7 percent from a year ago, it fell by $10,000 from March and is far below the $665,000 median peak reached in June and July 2007. In the Bay Area, 29.5 percent of existing home sales in April were properties that had been foreclosed upon in the past 12 months, down from 46.4 percent of existing homes sales a year ago.”

“‘There are a lot less short sales and foreclosures at this point. More higher-end homes are selling compared to a year ago,’ said Ellen Lancaster, a Realtor in the Oakland-Piedmont office of Coldwell Banker Residential Brokerage.”

“But if you ask Lancaster, jumbo financing is still hard to obtain. ‘I just had a sale in Walnut Creek at $500,000 with a 50 percent down payment and the buyers could not get a loan,’ Lancaster said. The buyers ending up paying cash for the owner-occupied home, she said.”

The LA Times. “The modest house has yet to be shingled and a stack of drywall sits on the bare concrete floor, but Karame Adesko and her fiance, Pablo Garcia, can envision their future in this developing Corona cul-de-sac. Adesko and Garcia originally planned to buy one of the many foreclosed properties in Southern California. But after touring several and seeing the pricey repairs they needed, the couple opted to spend $309,000 on a new 1,300-square-foot home.”

“‘I wanted to buy a move-in-ready house,’ said Adesko, a 27-year-old dance instructor.”

“Although the project has a pastoral feel, set amid dairy farms and with views of the snow-capped San Gabriel Mountains, it’s not far from her job in Placentia and his in Yorba Linda. One recent morning, Adesko and Garcia were led on a tour of their future home by Arnold Lloyd, a KB Home superintendent with an impressive handlebar mustache and long, thick, white sideburns. He explained the home’s features, showing them their property line, energy-saving air conditioner and gas fireplace.”

“‘You just have to turn the switch on and you have instant romance,’ he said. ‘You can sit back and enjoy your glass of wine.’ ‘Nice,’ Adesko said.”

“Later this month, Miami-based Lennar will open Central Park West in Irvine, Calif., a project it had put on hold during the housing crash…with prices ranging from the upper $300,000s to more than $1 million. Pulte Homes is opening a new development in Northeast Pasadena on a five-acre parcel of land it bought late last year…with prices starting in the high $700,000s.”

The Ventura County Star. “Sitting in a Moorpark town home worth $225,000, knowing he owes the bank $350,000, Joseph Shull can’t help but think about his options. ‘I put probably 100 (thousand) down on this home to buy it and now that’s gone and I won’t get that back,’ he said. ‘In order to sell the home, I would probably have to come up with another 100 out of my pocket, and I got to thinking, ‘Why would I want to do that?’”

“In 2006, he paid $410,000 for the single-story, 1,200-square-foot town home in Moorpark. He finally went to his bank about a year ago to ask for a lower interest rate. ‘I felt I was dealing from strength because I’ve never missed a payment or been late,’ he said. ‘I told them I was willing to walk away from the home and they were going to lose a lot of money.’”

“It took six months, he said, but the lender finally adjusted his interest rate, lowering his mortgage payments to about $1,400 a month from the previous $2,200. But that deal expires in 2011, and he’ll have to work to get it extended. He and his wife, both teachers, want to retire soon and would like to move to Oregon or Central California, so he’s seriously considering a strategic default.”

“‘My ace in the hole is these banks don’t want these properties,’ he said. ‘They’re not in the business of selling homes.’”

The Press Enterprise. “About 15 homeowners are looking for help at real estate agent Thalia Poulos’ seminar at the Temecula Public Library. Her basic sales pitch is that there are alternatives to foreclosure. Some homeowners talk about the embarrassment they would feel if their neighbors were to ever find out about their sad plight. Ironically, some say they believe many of the people on their street are in the same predicament. But everybody is too proud to talk openly about it.”

“There’s a literal hush in the room as Remy Mondola tells her story.’I am about to fall, mentally and physically,’ the former teacher says of a house that she paid $610,000 for six years ago, a home now worth roughly half. ‘I am done.’”

“At 77, Phil Schindler has seen his share of booms and busts. He moved to Temecula in 1988 and lost a house in the early 1990s in the previous downturn. This time around he lost a home in Montana, one he was renting out until his tenant lost his job and Schindler couldn’t afford to keep up the mortgage payments. He’s here more out of curiosity than anything else. He’s into land development now and he likes to keep up on the latest trends, no matter how dreary they may seem. If he’s into pain and suffering; he’s come to the right place at the right time. Now if only it would all just end.”

“‘It’s only property,’ he says nonchalantly.”




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63 Comments »

Comment by Cantankerous Intellectual Bomb-thrower
2010-05-24 05:45:27

“McConville”

Anyone who cuts a deal with a fellow named McConville deserves a trip to the cleaners.

Comment by arizonadude
2010-05-24 06:45:51

California and morals dont belong in the same sentence.It’s all about the money and bling here.

Beat La!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Comment by DinOR
2010-05-24 08:29:37

Notice though ( again ) this has been under investigation for three years. So going back to ‘07 ( at a min. ) they were running out of greater fools so… enter Mr. Fraud. This thing peaked SO much earlier ( legit faux peak anyway ) than most of us are willing to admit.

And it likely took time to line up straw buyers/crooked appraisewhores etc. The homes themselves were probably finished in ‘06. My guess is that, as a builder, if you didn’t have multiple bids by the time the pergraniteel went in, you got problems!

Comment by SDGreg
2010-05-24 17:48:25

Any even now, only the most egregious fraud cases are being prosecuted. Think about all of the liars loans that were made, most of which had at least some element of fraud. Virtually none of those have been prosecuted yet.

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Comment by holytrainwreck
2010-05-26 17:25:28

Like Casey Serin, for instance.

 
 
 
Comment by mikey
2010-05-24 09:40:48

“‘My ace in the hole is these banks don’t want these properties,’ he said. ‘They’re not in the business of selling homes.’”

Oh yeah bright boy, it’s more like your A$$ in a hole but I’ll hush now while you keep digging and figuring.

:)

Comment by Big V
2010-05-24 13:00:33

“My ace in the hole is that I will stop paying once I no longer can.”

How is that an ace in the freaking hole? It doesn’t save you from anything. I wonder if he’s paying more than equivalent rent, even with the modification.

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Comment by oxide
2010-05-24 17:13:49

His ace in the hole is woefully outdated.

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Comment by Cantankerous Intellectual Bomb-thrower
2010-05-24 05:48:04

“‘My ace in the hole is these banks don’t want these properties,’ he said. ‘They’re not in the business of selling homes.’”

Banks with REO = the accidental land sharks

Comment by Ben Jones
2010-05-24 07:53:02

‘the lender finally adjusted his interest rate…But that deal expires in 2011, and he’ll have to work to get it extended. He and his wife want to retire soon and would like to move so he’s seriously considering a strategic default’

This is closer to what’s really happening. He got a loan mod, and he’s still counting on his ‘ace in the hole’ to bail on the deal. Notice there isn’t one thought of actually staying in the house; he just wants out of what he borrowed.

I talk with some brokers who in turn work around some of these negotiations. The lenders play a bit more hardball with these people than you hear. Sure, in the press it’s ‘we do everything we can to help people stay in their homes.’ But in reality, they want their money. They know these ‘victims’ think they are saps, milking the sympathy thing to get out of paying.

 
 
Comment by Cantankerous Intellectual Bomb-thrower
2010-05-24 05:53:11

“Though the nine-county Bay Area’s median sales price of $370,000 was up 21.7 percent from a year ago, it fell by $10,000 from March and is far below the $665,000 median peak reached in June and July 2007. In the Bay Area, 29.5 percent of existing home sales in April were properties that had been foreclosed upon in the past 12 months, down from 46.4 percent of existing homes sales a year ago.”

Next month I’ll visit with some old friends in the Bay Area who bought circa 2006 in Danville. I incessantly warned them not to do it, but they got kind of trigger happy at the top of the bubble. Now they have a second child (they had only one four years ago), and one of the two parents’ jobs is potentially going to be eliminated, knocking out their primary income.

Does this story sound familiar?

Comment by Cantankerous Intellectual Bomb-thrower
2010-05-24 10:00:42

Taking Zillow’s price index at face value, it looks like Danville’s representative price was about $980K at the February 2006 peak, and is currently at about $770K — a $210K haircut for anyone who bought a typical home there at the bubble top.

 
Comment by SanFranciscoBayAreaGal
2010-05-24 10:12:42

Danville and that area of the Bay Area has been expensive for quite some time.

 
Comment by Big V
2010-05-24 13:06:59

Dude, house prices in the Bay Area are absolutely not up. If they are selling higher-end homes right now, then I’d venture to guess that banks are racking up quite a shadow inventory. Wonder what will happen next.

 
 
Comment by Rancher
2010-05-24 06:23:36

To all, I have absolutely no idea where that “quick
claim” thought came from yesterday; someone is
taking control of my fingers or brain, still shaking
my head, what’s left of it. Talk about being out in
left field.

 
Comment by Silverback1011
2010-05-24 06:35:03

Quick it. I mean, quit it. Actually, “quick claim” is part of the common vernacular now, similar to the well-known “butt naked” as opposed to the older ” buck naked “, so you’re in good company. That’ll larn ya.

Comment by Jim A.
2010-05-24 09:26:15

Of all the hair brained…

 
 
Comment by Cantankerous Intellectual Bomb-thrower
2010-05-24 06:35:36

“Pulte Homes is opening a new development in Northeast Pasadena on a five-acre parcel of land it bought late last year…with prices starting in the high $700,000s.”

That’s typical for the pricing I see on what little construction is still happening around our part of North County San Diego. I guess so long as construction only occurs at a trickle, it is possible for the builders still in the game to skim the top of the demand curve.

Comment by arizonadude
2010-05-24 06:48:58

700k seems a little pricey to me for a house.I guess some of those hoolywood types will be lining up for an offer?

Comment by rusty
2010-05-24 07:07:29

or 4 families of illegals jumping in together.

 
Comment by Cantankerous Intellectual Bomb-thrower
2010-05-24 07:26:16

I’m thinking Tijuana drug lords looking for a good place to park their cash…

 
 
Comment by Ben Jones
2010-05-24 07:59:52

‘Lennar will open Central Park West in Irvine, Calif., a project it had put on hold during the housing crash’

‘Pulte Homes is opening a new development in Northeast Pasadena on a five-acre parcel of land it bought late last year.’

Here we see the price effect on supply. Lennar reacting to still too high prices to re-open projects, or like Pulte, which has been out buying stalled developments. IMO, this hiding of inventory and goosing demand with low rates, easy loans and tax credits is having the unintended consequence of growing supply of houses that still cost too damn much. Does S CA really need more 300-$700k houses bought by dance instructors?

‘Officials estimate there are at least 100,000 homes in some state of foreclosure in Los Angeles County’

Comment by Arizona Slim
2010-05-24 08:30:02

A few months ago, I worked (as a volunteer) on a water harvesting project at a house outside of Tucson. Turns out that the lady who owned the place (which, IIRC, was in an area where houses were selling for well over $200k) was at work. As a nail technician.

Now, what a nail tech was doing buying a house to live in by herself, I don’t know. I could see it if she was buying the place and did so with other family members (who were also at this workshop), or if she had a working spouse, but nope. Single gal buying this big, honking house.

Comment by mikey
2010-05-24 10:10:28

A “nail technician” !?!

Sheesh, I suppose that makes my tiny 3 week old grand nephew a “boob technican” because besides that job specialty, all he does is chuckle, poop and sleep.

Nail Technician, that’s as fancy PC idiot job title as our overpaid “sanitary engineers” who were once plain old “garbage men” and expensive “men’s hair stylists” that were once just plain old barbers.

Where do we come up with this pseudo technicial and engineering titling and job description label mumbo-jumbo Crapola to justify someones, somewhat humble employment existence?

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Comment by In Colorado
2010-05-24 10:25:48

FWIW, you need to be licensed to do someone’s nails or cut their hair.

On the other hand, to write software for fly by wire aircraft, no license is required.

 
Comment by mikey
2010-05-24 10:46:09

Yes, I know that.

Our “aquatic toe technicains” (tiny fish), were recently chased out of the local mall because they did not have a license or proper training for eating dead foot skin according to the Wisconsin State Board of Regulations and Licensing.

:)

 
Comment by mikey
2010-05-24 11:05:16

I guess the fish were in a non-accedited school.

;)

 
Comment by Wickedheart
2010-05-24 12:14:51

Please tell me that is a typo Mikey, cause eating dead foot skin is really, really gross. Gross like worse than booger eating.

 
Comment by Diplomatbob
2010-05-24 12:34:18

No, dead skin-eating fish are fairly common in Asia. It’s starting to come to the U.S. Feels good.

 
Comment by X-GSfixr
2010-05-24 13:44:37

“……pseudo technical and engineering titleing…….?”

Partly it’s the way the Department of Labor classifies skill levels. Companies use DOL/BLS statistics to determine pay scales for people doing equivalent work. For example, BLS considers A&Ps to be on the same skill/responsibility level as bicycle and motorcycle mechanics. So the HR types set pay scales to match.

(Some guys I’ve seen SHOULD be working on Harley/bicycles instead of airplane, but I digress………)

 
Comment by Arizona Slim
2010-05-24 13:47:44

For example, BLS considers A&Ps to be on the same skill/responsibility level as bicycle and motorcycle mechanics.

Oh, give me a break!

I’ve been a bicycle mechanic. And I’ve known a number of people who work on airplanes. There’s a lot more to working on a plane than there is to working on a bicycle.

Simply no comparison.

 
 
 
Comment by DinOR
2010-05-24 08:36:34

Ben,

Pure insanity. Over the weekend I kind of stumbled on the notion that for all their cheerleading, subsidies etc., NAHB/NAR etc. really ‘do’ want prices to crash..?

It’s now plainly obvious there’s little that can be done or hasn’t been already tried to ’support’ home prices and if that just can’t happen, the only way to re-load the game is a Vegas-style crash from coast to coast?

There’s already ample distance between the REIC and Wall Street, and clearly they’re not going to take the hit for this. So in my estimation, forget about the lip service they keep offering ( watch what they’re actually ‘doing’? )

Oh and Lost sucks, six years of my life down the tubes…

Comment by SanFranciscoBayAreaGal
2010-05-24 10:18:57

I kind of liked the ending and didn’t like the ending.

Six years of you life was not down the tubes. Lost was one of the most intelligent TV shows in a long time. They never talked down to their audience.

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Comment by DinOR
2010-05-24 11:00:08

SFBAGal,

Oh you’re right of course, I was just frustrated it wasn’t more of a ‘technical’ explanation. For many years we were told that all the avg. Amerikun’ could handle was Wheel of Fortune or sexed-up sci-fi that had more sex than science.

So Lost truly was ground breaking. I think we can safely assume that more details about how things all came to be will bubble to the surface in the days and weeks to come. Likely you’ll have to buy the “Deluxe” version to completely satisfy your curiousity?

You could even say I was more of a fan of the whole Dharma Initiative etc. than the characters themselves. But eventually you get caught up in their stories and struggles as well, it certainly wouldn’t have been anywhere near as interesting had the Island’s inhabitants been say, trained military guys, reacting to the strange environment based solely on their ‘training’.

 
 
 
Comment by toast on the coast 90803
2010-05-24 10:13:12

Lennar has started up a project in Long Beach/Signal Hill off of Redondo that was abandoned by KB a few years ago.

 
 
Comment by Big V
2010-05-24 13:09:55

If the entire development is on 5 acres, then how small is each lot?

Comment by JohnF
2010-05-24 14:23:10

The “typical” Los Angeles County lot is 50′ x 100′……these are probably a little larger, maybe 6,000 to 7,000 square feet each or 1/6th or 1/7th of an acre……

 
 
 
Comment by WT Economist
2010-05-24 06:37:57

“When demand began to slump for Victor Mendez’s tile contracting work, he and his wife asked their bank, JPMorgan Chase, for a loan mod. ‘They said ‘We can’t help you until you’re late.’”

But they should have said is that people have always lost their homes to foreclosure due to economic, health or family setbacks. The bailouts are not intended to benefit those with normal foreclosures.

They are intended to help those who took a bunch of cash out re-fis and blew the money, and those who let them 20 times their usual annual income.

Comment by Jim A.
2010-05-24 09:32:11

The thing that gets me, why would people imagine that there would be a significant difference in FICO treatment between forclosure, short sale, and a loan mod? They all represent a default by the borrower. They all represent a significant haircut for the lender. It isn’t like you’re NOT having a crash and burn credit event, it’s more like the choice between hitting a lamp post, a fire hydrant or a telephone pole: the car is totaled no matter what.

Comment by Watching the Carnage
2010-05-24 18:56:05

Jim A.

Your post made my night!!! Thanks, that’s some funny stuff. What’s not funny are those FB that really believe these options are due to them and can’t comprehend why this is a negative outcome for them.

 
 
 
Comment by Ben Jones
2010-05-24 08:09:50

Hmm:

‘The good news is that Orange County is no longer one of the worst five places in the country for housing affordability. But seventh is still really bad. As some experts predict that housing eventually is going to return to the record levels of ‘unaffordability’ seen back in 2006, planners, developers and government officials have begun to debate about how to create enough housing to keep prices down.’

‘This brief respite is going to come to an end,’ economist Chris Thornberg said Thursday at the O.C. Housing Summit.’

‘Thornberg pointed out that unlike parts of Nevada and Arizona, California didn’t overbuild during the last housing boom. So when prices recover here — which they are already doing — supply will once again be constrained and prices will shoot up.’

http://www.dailypilot.com/articles/2010/05/22/business/dpt-housing052310.txt

‘Chris Thornberg, an economist at Beacon who burnished his reputation by accurately predicting the housing crash, said the national economy will be buoyed by federal spending through the end of the year, but after that he has ‘zero confidence’ in his predictions after that time. The national economy should grow strongly in 2010, thanks to federal policies, Thornberg said. ‘Government has gotten involved like we’ve never seen before in the economy,’ Thornberg said. ‘It’s not that we’ve burned off these excesses and we’re ready to move forward again.’

‘He worried that government spending may not give the economy enough momentum to make the growth sustainable in 2011 and beyond. In housing alone, Thornberg said he thinks the government’s foreclosure prevention programs are merely delaying foreclosures, while tax incentives and low interest rates are artificially stimulating demand.’

‘When those programs end, the market may fall again. He sees similar patterns in banking and consumer spending. ‘It looks to me like we’re not trying to put the economy back to where it was in 1992, but we’re trying to put the economy back to where it was in 2006,’ Thornberg said. ‘And that’s not good.’

http://www.nctimes.com/business/article_6bc52f4c-eba4-5b46-b42d-287285f805fa.html

‘Beacon’s Christopher Thornberg said spending lately rose at a 3 percent annual rate though incomes were up only 2 percent. ‘It’s not good for how the economy will play out,’ he said. Looking at the economy as a whole, Thornberg said the United States is ‘absolutely’ out of the recession. ‘I see a good year ahead and a big slowdown in 2011-12,’ he said. Now, ‘a good dose of patience’ is what’s needed.’

‘In a wide-ranging review of the local economy the San Rafael consulting firm’s economists said single-family resale home prices will trend upward, from the first quarter’s median of $382,788 to $439,000 over the next four years — a nearly 15 percent rise.’

‘The $439,000 median price forecast for 2014 would still be 23 percent below the 2006 peak of $571,580. Kemp said that as prices rise, even at a slowing pace, San Diego will again become less affordable to local buyers. They will likely turn northward to buy in southern Riverside County and commute to work in San Diego, just as they did during the past decade’s boom.’

‘Home prices in San Diego are great news here,’ said Brad Kemp, Beacon’s director of regional research.’

http://www.signonsandiego.com/news/2010/may/21/housing-recovery-expected-to-slow/

Comment by SanFranciscoBayAreaGal
2010-05-24 10:21:39

Oh he is so full of it. Another city here in the Bay Area is thinking about bankruptcy. Look at what will happen to property values.

Comment by In Colorado
2010-05-24 10:34:27

If ther is a place where they can re-inflate the bubble, its SoCal. Of course it won’t last, because if people can’t afford the houses they won’t make the payments.

Of course this doesn’t preclude families doubling up to be able to afford that 700K, 1700 sq ft ranch.I heard that this was already starting to happen in San Diego before the bubble popped.

Comment by DinOR
2010-05-24 11:34:03

In Colorado,

Interesting point. Over the last few weeks the wife and I had kind of been discussing, Well.., just what ‘would’ our finances look like even assuming we had -zero- house payments?

The answers weren’t encouraging. Our HOA’s had to be adjusted -up- to fill a construction defect of bubble-mania making, we certainly don’t see our prop. taxes going down?

We just had the city approve a hike in water/sewer rates and that’s not even accounting for a spike in gas prices, food etc. When you really look at the way the bal. of our mo. expenses had been trending over the last decade +, spiraling home prices is just about the LAST thing that should have happened?

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Comment by Cantankerous Intellectual Bomb-thrower
2010-05-24 12:50:13

“Of course this doesn’t preclude families doubling up to be able to afford that 700K, 1700 sq ft ranch.I heard that this was already starting to happen in San Diego before the bubble popped.”

I can’t deny the thought has even crossed my mind (but my wife utterly refuses to let her sister move in with us ;-) ).

But for every case where two families double up to pool resources to make an unaffordable ’single family’ McMansion purchase, one family who would have lived elsewhere is taken out of the demand pool. What happens to the other 50 percent of the homes these doubler-uppers don’t need to live in?

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Comment by Big V
2010-05-24 13:26:33

Correct, PB.

Also, why would a family want to “double up” just in order to make the mortgage on a house, when they could simply choose to rent, thereby paying 1/2 as much?

The ONLY REASON for a person to make such a decision is if they believe that property values will rise. Take that away (as is happening now), and the doubling up will not happen.

 
 
 
 
Comment by potential buyer
2010-05-24 10:53:02

Did that shadow inventory magically disappear?

 
Comment by Cantankerous Intellectual Bomb-thrower
2010-05-24 12:44:54

‘Chris Thornberg, an economist at Beacon who burnished his reputation by accurately predicting the housing crash, said the national economy will be buoyed by federal spending through the end of the year, but after that he has ‘zero confidence’ in his predictions after that time.”

He got lucky that time, but is revealing himself to be just another barking fool on the tail end of bubble deflation.

 
Comment by Cantankerous Intellectual Bomb-thrower
2010-05-24 12:46:32

‘In a wide-ranging review of the local economy the San Rafael consulting firm’s economists said single-family resale home prices will trend upward, from the first quarter’s median of $382,788 to $439,000 over the next four years — a nearly 15 percent rise.

CLICK!

 
Comment by Cantankerous Intellectual Bomb-thrower
2010-05-24 12:51:44

‘Thornberg pointed out that unlike parts of Nevada and Arizona, California didn’t overbuild during the last housing boom. So when prices recover here — which they are already doing — supply will once again be constrained and prices will shoot up.’

I guess Thornberg must have never visited any of the 131 or so ‘New Home Communities’ around San Diego County? Or seen the massive condo construction boom-turned-bust in downtown San Diego?

Comment by San Diego RE Bear
2010-05-25 14:18:02

Damn it - it’s DIFFERENT here. Why can’t you people get that through your minds!

:D

 
 
Comment by Big V
2010-05-24 13:23:10

California didn’t overbuild? REALLY? Cause I member $300,000 sh!tboxes going up in nowhere’s-ville in like 2003. People buying in Riverside and commuting to San Diego? Only happened cause they thought prices would go up forever. Remove the element of delusional bubble-thinking, and no one is going to make that poor decision.

Unaffordable housing is simply not sustainable, no matter what, so what in the WORLD is Chris Thornberg smoking?

Comment by Arizona Slim
2010-05-24 13:49:09

Whatever he’s smoking, he’d better not bogart it.

 
Comment by DinOR
2010-05-24 14:17:57

Right, unless Chris knows something the rest of us don’t? The only thing I’ll say for the theory is that; during the boom we had legions of equity locusts leaving Cali in search of even more flipping grounds.

I guess b/c they figured what would only buy one or two homes in SD/LA would easily afford leverage on 8 or 10 in Vegas etc. Now that it’s gone bust, will they return to CA in droves? From Bend, OR?

Comment by SV guy
2010-05-24 15:58:20

I have made some very good deals on heavy equipment in Bend, OR.

There is much pain there right now.

(Comments wont nest below this level)
 
 
Comment by SDGreg
2010-05-24 18:06:42

“They will likely turn northward to buy in southern Riverside County and commute to work in San Diego, just as they did during the past decade’s boom.’”

That will not happen again. As the effects of peak oil affect gas prices and supply in the decade ahead, the strategy or trading longer commutes for cheaper housing will no longer be viable. Those with jobs in San Diego County will not be commuting from Riverside County in increasing numbers ever again.

 
 
 
Comment by rusty
2010-05-24 09:59:54

We went rental hunting yesterday in an upscale neighborhood and we found two open houses so stopped in to peek for entertainment purposes. It must be a great time to buy, as both realtors told me so!

Of course both of them had been alone in the house all afternoon, so maybe they were just a tad touched in the head and overloaded with adrenaline due to our arrival. My wife even said “oh don’t mention that to -him-!”

I bit my tongue and chuckled internally. Glad we are only looking for rentals, the vultures are still out there!

 
Comment by cactus
2010-05-24 10:16:42

The Ventura County Star. “Sitting in a Moorpark town home worth $225,000, knowing he owes the bank $350,000, Joseph Shull can’t help but think about his options. ‘I put probably 100 (thousand) down on this home to buy it and now that’s gone and I won’t get that back,’ he said. ‘In order to sell the home, I would probably have to come up with another 100 out of my pocket, and I got to thinking, ‘Why would I want to do that?’”

this is werid who would have sold a Townhome in Moorpark in 2006 at the peak ?? And move to Phoenix ?? who would Read Ben Jones blog ??

and now move back to Moorpark in a couple weeks ?? kinda freaking me out ….

 
Comment by SanFranciscoBayAreaGal
2010-05-24 12:02:45

mikey,

Were you at Lambeau Field this weekend for the Vietnam Veterans?

Comment by mikey
2010-05-24 15:47:09

“Were you at Lambeau Field this weekend for the Vietnam Veterans?”

No, I didn’t go. Not big on crowds, parades, reunions and that sort of thing although I did fly to a Ranger reunion at Ft. Benning to see a couple of my old friends honored a couple of years back. One alive, didn’t make that years cut for the Hall of Fame and the other did but he was dead. It was really nice to meet that Ranger son and the rest of the family. His kid was really great, we talked a lot, then just smiled and grinned outside while the remainder of the ceremony continued on …inside. He wasn’t too big on crowds either.

Heck crowds, I even wait until the big shows are over before I go to Wood National Cemetry and sit on the Civil War monument canons in the Garden of Stone in the evening. If there are more that 2 pigeons on the opposite canon, I just shove on.

;)

 
 
Comment by swguy
2010-05-24 13:47:33

Foreclosed houses,land etc. all will sell eventally and the bank gets it’s dough in the end and you end up with a lost down payment, payments and taxes blowing in the wind, lousy credit rating, and very high rate, they never really lose only you do.

 
Comment by reuven
2010-05-24 14:02:35

For those of you old enough to remember Tom Paxton’s “I Am Changing My Name to Chrystler”, here’s “I Am Changing My Name to Fannie Mae”

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=etUq7IY_7Mc

 
Comment by DD
2010-05-24 23:41:57

PDX lady (lurker)
HELLO!- Mr Romeo reminded me to post something!

Hello to Ben, Lynn, and HBBers. Have been scanning and trying to lower stress.

 
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