June 17, 2010

HBB On The Road To New Mexico/Texas

This thread will be forwarded during my trip through New Mexico and part of Texas, for the purpose of communicating with local bloggers, posting observations and photos. Let’s call this the Shadow Inventory Tour. Pics will be posted on Picasa.

The Austin American Statesman in Texas. “Rooftops could start appearing next year on the long-delayed Flatrock Springs development in Marble Falls, where plans call for more than 2,000 residences. The project was announced four years ago, but the recession and ongoing economic downturn caused managing developer SouthStar Development Partners Inc. to ‘re-evaluate the process,’ said Thad Rutherford , SouthStar’s vice president of project management.”

“The relaunched Flatrock Springs will be a “true mixed-use community,” ranging from $90,000 townhomes to 2-acre ranchettes for $600,000, Rutherford said. He declined to put a dollar amount on the current value of the project, which was reported in 2006 to be about $850 million. The relauching of Flatrock is another sign that development is picking up in the wake of the recession. ‘It’s a different world we live in, but activity is increasing,’ Rutherford said. ‘It never came to a halt like other places in the country, which is a positive thing.’”

“Austin voters would be asked to approve $16 million for a boardwalk along Lady Bird Lake’s south shore, closing a gap in the hike-and-bike trail, under the draft version of an $84.8 million transportation bond proposal for the November election. The boardwalk concept has run into opposition from some lakeside residents. The boardwalk would bring thousands of people each week by the back doors of condominiums, including one owned by entertainment publicist Jill McGuckin. Aside from privacy and security concerns, McGuckin said she is concerned about graffiti and general maintenance.”

“‘Why would you spend $16 million for 1.1 miles to nowhere?’ McGuckin said.”

KVUE in Texas. “You might just call it the life styles of the rich and famous in Austin. Two luxury condos are opening this month and a third by the end of the year. These high rise projects have already changed the face of Austin’s skyline and are revolutionizing Austin’s urban lifestyle. They are some of the most expensive residential housing developed in downtown Austin.”

“The Austonian is the tallest residential building in Austin and the Western United States. It too boasts of its elegant life style and unprecedented views of the City and surrounding Hill Country. To live here, it will cost you between $586,000 to $7.2 million.”

“Arnold and Candy Lipp closed Friday morning on their second home at the Four Seasons Residences. ‘Location was everything for us. We just love the grounds of the Four Seasons, with all the tradition and the amenities,’ said Arnold Lipp. Their two bedroom/two-and-a-half bath condo is on the fifteenth floor with a view of Lady Bird Lake. ‘What can be better than this view,’ said Lipp. ‘It is magnificent.”

“The 32-story high-rise building features 148 condominiums and…range in size from 880 square feet to 5,500 square feet and are priced between $400,000 and $4 million.”

The Star Local News in Texas. “A disturbing trend has developed among foreclosed homes in Collin County. The total number of ‘upside-down’ residential foreclosures for the first half of 2010 increased across the Dallas-Fort Worth area and other parts of the state including Collin County where the rate jumped by 41 percent, according to data tabulated by the Foreclosure Listing Service (FLS) of Fort Worth.”

“Dallas County had the highest increase in the Dallas-Fort Worth area with 56 percent followed by Denton County with 51 percent, according to FLS data.”

“‘Both the homeowners and the lenders of these upside-down homes are in a no win situation,FLS President George Roddy said. ‘Generally, the homeowner cannot sell the home for what they owe on the mortgage and most often, the lender cannot sell the home after repossessing it for the amount that they have invested in the mortgage and other costs that the lender has incurred.’”

“‘Upside-down postings have risen at a much higher pace than overall residential foreclosure posting activity,’ Roddy said. ‘Compared to one year ago, the number of postings filed on homes in an upside-down position climbed 39 percent in the 19-county area; whereas, total residential posting activity increased just 10 percent.’”

The Dallas Morning News in Texas. “In the four-county D-FW area, more than 6,700 foreclosure postings in the first half of 2010 involved homes on which the debt owed was higher than the tax appraisal. During the same time, total foreclosure postings in Dallas County rose only 7 percent. Recent studies estimate about 15 percent of all Dallas-area homeowners with mortgages owe more than their house is worth. They either paid too much for the property or, more likely, values have fallen in their neighborhoods due to distressed property sales and high inventories of unsold homes.”

“Homeowners who are underwater in their mortgages are considered much more likely to default on their loans.”

“Condo and townhouse sales in North Texas have jumped 24 percent in the first five months of 2010 from a year ago. Sales are still below where they were in 2008, according to statistics from the Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University and North Texas Real Estate Information Systems Inc. And there’s no sign that prices are bouncing back. Median sales prices for condos were down 17 percent in May from a year ago. There’s about an 11-month supply of condos and townhouses for sale in North Texas.”

“At the high end, some potential buyers have run into difficulties obtaining mortgages, said Jeff Updike, who owns Dallas’ Remax Urban. ‘You can get way down the road with a deal before you figure out there is just no financing,’ he said.”

“Analyst Mike Puls of Foley & Puls said some buyers of high-end units have had difficulty getting the homes to appraise for what the sellers are asking. ‘That really hurt the ability to sell some of the units,’ he said.”

“One condo high-rise, the House at Victory Park, has been advertising that it provides 100 percent financing for qualified buyers. About a dozen of the 150 units in the 28-story condo tower, which opened a year ago, have been deeded to buyers, tax records show. Condos at the House range from under $400,000 to more than $2 million. Unlike some markets in Florida, Nevada and California, Dallas did not see a condo building boom that left the area with thousands of unsold units when the recession hit. Several proposed Dallas condo projects, such as the Maple Terrace tower, were canceled.”

“‘We came late to that market, so we wound up with fewer units – about 1,000,’ Puls said. ‘We have closed about 60 percent of the high-rise units built that were for sale.’”

The Star Telegram in Texas. “The Parthenon Greek restaurant was torn down to make room for a matching condo building to the adjacent Versailles condos on Henderson Street in 2007, but now it appears those condos won’t be built. Borodino Land, an investor group headed by Fort Worth neurosurgeon Gregory Smith, in April deeded the property back to its lender, Southwest Securities Bank in Arlington, deed records show.”

“Smith said he negotiated the settlement with the bank after it wanted to restructure the loan, which would have made it impossible for the group to move forward with the project in today’s economy. The group had obtained building permits but then held off starting construction just as the financial crunch took its grip on the local markets, he said.”

“The group previously announced plans for a seven-unit building in hope that it would be sold out by June 2008. The property remains vacant.”

New Mexico Business Weekly. “Albuquerque and New Mexico’s foreclosure rates rose in April over March and are substantially higher compared to April 2009, according to CoreLogic. Statewide, however, New Mexico’s foreclosure rate of 2.11 percent was well below the national rate of 3.20 percent in April.’

“The most significant statistic from the CoreLogic report indicates that 6.7 percent of Albuquerque area mortgages were 90 days delinquent in April compared to 3.9 percent last year. Statewide that rate hit 5.84 percent. For the U.S., the 90 day delinquency rate stood at 8.9 percent at the end of April.”

“Although the report didn’t give reasons for the gains, the continuing recession and its job losses, coupled with the resetting of adjustable rate mortgages, are among the most likely causes.”

The Four Corners Business Journal in New Mexico. “As the weak economy has driven down employment rates and hurt the housing markets of Four Corners communities, housing rentals in Durango and Farmington have become increasingly available. The challenge, many area property managers say, is finding tenants willing or capable of renting houses and town homes commanding monthly rental fees higher than $1,000.”

“Adding to the challenge is an increasing supply of rental homes in that price range coming available in Durango and Farmington. As homeowners are struggling to sell their houses on the open market, many are choosing to seek renters and wait for the area real estate markets to improve. ‘In the over $1,000 a month (range), we’re not seeing more people coming into town. That’s been the hardest-hit market,’ said Caroni Adams, owner of The Property Manager in Durango. ‘You have to have a fairly good income to afford it. People don’t have the income, they’re just not coming.’”

“As BP America slowed its operations in La Plata County, the effect was felt by the rental housing market, said Dawn Wright, owner of Durango Property Management. ‘Even up to last year, before BP started downsizing with their subcontractors, that’s who was renting the higher-end homes, people who were contracting for BP or Conoco,’ Wright said. ‘Now there are fewer of them, so we have more high-end units available and we’re seeing them vacant for longer.’”

“Units priced higher than $1,200 can take as much as three months to get rented, Wright said. As a result, prices are dropping on the higher-cost properties, and renters have become very picky about what they are looking for in a market ripe with supply, she said. ‘We have seen a surge of supply and less demand,’ Wright said.”

The Clovis News Journal in New Mexico. “Officials say Clovis isn’t feeling the mortgage crunch that’s squeezing other areas of the country. However, for those with homes that are in jeopardy, help is available. Hope Now is a free homeowner counseling service designed to help people look at their options, according to Housing and Urban Development spokeswoman Patricia Campbell. Also, for the first time, Federal Housing Administration mortgages are being made available as a refinance option to troubled borrowers, she said.”

“Campbell said borrowers must act quickly, because if they wait until they are going under, it may be too late. ‘There are some people who will not be able to avoid (foreclosure), but there certainly is some help out there. (FHA refinance) is a new product that really is an opportunity for people who are behind or they know their (adjustable rate mortgage) is going to readjust this year,’ Campbell said.”

“Financial Counselor Brenda O’Shea said in the last six months traffic has nearly doubled at the Clovis Consumer Credit Counseling Services branch she manages. Financial strain from rising fuel costs, increased food costs and homes that exceed budgets turn into growing credit card debts and delinquencies, she said. ‘Everyone’s getting overextended on the credit cards and they’re getting to where they can’t afford the minimum payments anymore because everything is going up,’ she said.”

“O’Shea said people who never thought their stability would be in question, find they are having problems. ‘Even someone a year ago that thought they would never have been in a predicament like this are having problems,’ she said. ‘There are those who have said, ‘I should have come a year ago but I was embarrassed.’”

The Las Cruces Sun News in New Mexico. “With the economic downturn the past several years, a society that had increasingly been leaning on credit cards found itself relying on plastic to survive the recession. Las Cruces accountant and financial instructor Vivian Moore teaches classes for people who are going through the foreclosure process. She said that some people have no room to maneuver. ‘They feel like they don’t have a choice but to live on credit cards, but they can’t keep up with them,’ Moore said.”

“‘People leaned on credit cards definitely,’ said Dave Hooker, who owns Shorty’s Food Marts in Las Cruces. ‘Credit and debit card usage is way up. It looks like we’re going to a cash-less society.’”

“Still, it does appear as if one silver lining in the recession is the way it has made Americans more cautious with their finances. The personal savings rate has recovered to 3.6 percent, after falling for two months. But, ultimately, is all this saving a good thing for the economy? Some experts believe that better saving habits might delay economic recovery because, as people save more in a tough economy, they spend less.”

“Economists call it the ‘paradox of thrift.’ What’s good for individuals — spending less, saving more — is bad for the economy when everyone does it. Jim Peach, who teaches economics at New Mexico State University, refers to it as ‘fallacy of composition.’ ‘Saving may be very good for me and you as individuals, but the fallacy of composition is: if everybody does it, then we’re not consuming and incomes may be lower,’ Peach said.”

‘He said that in the years before the recession, U.S. consumers were spending at a pretty fast clip. ‘Now you combine an increase in the savings rate with tighter credit restrictions — plus housing loans and automobile loans are in the same situation — and you have a double hit on consumption,’ Peach said. ‘The question is: ‘How long that will last?’ The honest answer is: ‘No one really knows.’”




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135 Comments »

Comment by Ben Jones
2010-06-12 06:52:02

I’ll be driving into New Mexico by this afternoon, Pacific time. Unlike previous On The Road excursions, I have a wireless card that hopefully will enable me to moderate and post photos (link to come later today) as I go along. I appreciate your patience on any delays.

My first local shadow inventory interview is in the can and should run next week. As I travel through NM, TX, FL and the DC area, I’ll try to contact the local media for in an attempt to rally support for the petition. Any help in this regard is also appreciated.

Here’s an article that ran last December in the News Bulletin in New Mexico:

‘Residents of a neighborhood on Valencia County’s east mesa convinced the county’s planning and zoning commission to leave undeveloped lots in their subdivision at the original size, even if that means the lots may lie vacant for years to come. Local developer Mike Mechenbier was prepared to buy 97 empty lots in Eastland Hills, now owned by Charter Bank due to foreclosure, if he was given permission to drop the lot sizes by almost half to try and make them more affordable.’

‘Mechenbier and agent Mark Goodwin argued that by reducing the lots from 7,200 square feet to about 3,200 square feet and putting approximately 1,000 square-foot houses on the lots, the properties would move easier in the currently depressed housing market.’

‘Homeowners who have already bought their property in the development were adamant about keeping the lot sizes as they are. Ginger Brown, president of the Eastland Hills homeowners association, called the plan by Goodwin and Mechenbier nothing more than an attempt to recapture losses Mechenbier experienced during his involvement with the project under the previous corporation.’

‘Brown said most of the homes already built in Eastland Hills averaged between 1,800 and 2,000 square feet. ‘If you bring in 1,000 square foot homes, they will be substandard,’ Brown said. ‘Many of the houses out there have sold in excess of $200,000.’

‘Lane asked if she would rather have the lots remain empty than reduce their size. ‘Yes,’ Brown replied. ‘With half-finished roads and gutters for maybe the next eight years?’ Lane asked. Brown again answered in the affirmative. ‘We’ve already lived with that for five years,’ she said.’

‘Goodwin argued that reducing the lot sizes and thus reducing the final sale price of the property to the consumer would serve the public’s interest, and actually increase property values by having a completed subdivision rather than vacant lots. ‘Those lots at that size are hard to move right now,’ Goodwin said. ‘It could be eight to 10 years if the market comes back well enough for people to afford a lot that size. The real estate crash we had two-and-a-half years ago…they said it was supposed to last a year.’

‘Mechenbier told the planning and zoning commission that he been a contractor for the previous developer who declared bankruptcy. ‘We were left holding the bag, just like you guys, with a half-done subdivision,’ Mechenbier said.’

Comment by sfbubblebuyer
2010-06-14 12:44:29

Nobody sees the obvious solution of selling the lots for half the price? If, in theory, they were able to afford half the lot, the whole lot for half off is just as affordable.

Comment by pismoclam
2010-06-15 17:50:23

No wonder the DMN is in deep caca. ” Those that are behind on their mortgages are more that likely to default” Well DAH. What journalism school did they go to. Do NOT subsidise the newspapers with a bail out!!!

 
Comment by Groundhogday
2010-06-16 13:00:14

This is a big beef with me as well. We have a whole bunch of builders building more “affordable” homes. But their actual construction costs have hardly budged or even gone up! “affordable” means cheaper materials, smaller lots, and smaller houses.

 
 
Comment by Cantankerous Intellectual Bomb-thrower
2010-06-16 09:24:38

“Let’s call this the Shadow Inventory Tour.”

Keep us CA residents posted as to when you schedule the California Shadow Inventory Tour. I might even consider doing some local market legwork if you provide guidance on how to proceed.

Comment by Ben Jones
2010-06-16 09:37:01

I think I’ll go on a driving SI tour of CA after I get back from this trip.

Comment by Cantankerous Intellectual Bomb-thrower
2010-06-16 13:27:26

Awesome! Keep those of us who live along the route posted on the plans…

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Comment by lip
2010-06-12 08:02:29

Ben,

Happy trails.

I just spent the week in northern NM and found the MLS market very bubbly in the Taos area. Apparently some people with money are willing to spend a premium to have a 2nd home there.

Personally I liked the small towns of Chama and Red River.

Lip

Comment by Ben Jones
2010-06-12 08:10:12

Thanks,

I used to go fishing up near Chama, Antonito. Beautiful country. I was thinking about passing through Taos or Santa Fe, but I better stick to I-40, as I’ve got a long road ahead of me. But look for some NM photos and reports over the next two days.

Comment by Hwy50ina49Dodge
2010-06-13 07:45:42

Be safe Mr. Ben, and make sure you’re not followed out of town by any shiny waxed cars sportin’ real estate agent signs! ;-)

Comment by Ben Jones
2010-06-13 08:09:07

Funny you mention that. People in ABQ like pricey cars. Right now at the 24 hour Del Taco nearby, the employees are out washing theirs. (A perk early in the AM?) And there are many cars/trucks with flames painted on them and personalized lic. plates.

Anyhoo, about to get on the road east and check out more of NM, then hit west TX and see what’s bubbling in Amarillo.

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Comment by DinOR
2010-06-14 07:12:00

Ben,

It was noted in the Oregonian that vehicle registrations are declining in all but 4 OR counties*. Of course ‘we’ love to jump all over that as “evidence” that ppl are leaving in droves but my guess is the reality is parents simply can’t afford to keep Jr. in clover any longer?

Those teens that still ‘have’ their cars are obviously now appreciating how much walking sux.

Hood River, Wallowa and a few other backwater dumps.

 
Comment by DennisN
2010-06-15 10:10:58

A lot of people in California have Oregon plates, presumably to avoid smog checks and higher reg. fees. Maybe these guys are fleeing CA and find out where they land is even better than “OR plate” status.

 
Comment by Ken Best
2010-06-17 23:38:30

The zero down NINJA loan brought destruction to a neighborhood. 6,7 cars in front the house, oil spots all over the neighbor’s street front. Then big trucks appeared on the street, loud Latino music, cops called ..

On weekends, many families gather and line up to wash their cars.

 
 
 
 
 
Comment by Bill in Los Angeles
2010-06-12 08:12:30

I like New Mexico and have been there about four times. Have been to all the cities along route 40, also Clovis and Las Cruces. Methinks that $1,000 per month rent in the Farmington area is one of those “what have they been smoking” things. Maybe those BP and Conoco contractor jobs must have been high paying! But life in a small town is not glamorous unless it’s Vail or Aspen.

Comment by In Montana
2010-06-13 08:17:27

That Four Corners used to be trashy and remote, I guess mining made if finally take off?? I worked there once and was so relieved to be fired the first week.

 
Comment by flg_az
2010-06-13 15:14:13

or flagstaff.

I appreciate the reports on the 4 corners area towns. They have all seen real estate get very expensive, even though the incomes are modest. And today the Flagstaff paper has the big “HOome Prices Rebounding” on the front page, but I don’t think they are telling the whole story… just interviewing a real estate agent or two.

Comment by DinOR
2010-06-14 07:13:38

( Please see Ben’s photos off the Picasa link? )

Pretty sky though.

Comment by Ben Jones
2010-06-14 07:26:29

I was kinda windy there the day I took those photos, but the next morning it was very nice. The desert can be that way. It’s funny, cuz now I’m in N TX and with the humidity, it feels sorta sticky, but everything’s green and the fruit and veggies are plentiful.

I can see why people would choose to live in New Mexico and around here in Texas. Of course, the land and houses should be cheap, but that’s another question.

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Comment by DinOR
2010-06-14 07:34:15

“but everything is green and the fruit and veggies are plentiful”

( See? Even after the Nuke/HB/Financial ‘winter’, signs of life? ) I am SO passed depressed. It just struck me odd Ben that in the midst of all that natural beauty someone would decide to plunk down some tacky sumpdivision?

Those pictures remind me of that footage you see where the Dept. of Defense built these faux houses to see what a nuke blast would do? The Hills Have Eyes my friend!

 
 
 
 
 
Comment by mikey
2010-06-12 09:56:10

‘He said that in the years before the recession, U.S. consumers were spending at a pretty fast clip. ‘Now you combine an increase in the savings rate with tighter credit restrictions — plus housing loans and automobile loans are in the same situation — and you have a double hit on consumption,’ Peach said. ‘The question is: ‘How long that will last?’ The honest answer is: ‘No one really knows.’”

Yup… it’s pretty bad when the entire US Economy, without it’s Almigty Housing Ponzi and Wall Street get rich investment schemes, is now based and dependant on a bunch of broke and jobless shopping junkies, the terminal velocity of these fools with their Credit Cards and an unending appetite for distruction with the addiction and consumption of Chinese and foreign Junk.

“Will the last sane person in United Corporate State of America in please turn off the lights when they leave…the shareholders still demand that profit !”

“Hello…hello…sane person …?”

;)

 
Comment by Big V
2010-06-12 10:53:27

I had some friends who moved to New Mexico circa 2001. Last time I spoke with them must have been around 2003. I remember them telling me that renting was really the way to go in that state, as house prices were way out of line with rents. Apparently, no one could really afford to buy a house, and none of my friends could figure out where all these “rich” people were coming from. This is a state where massive numbers of Native Americans receive public assistance, and it seems that jobs are less prevalent than stray cats. Wish I would have known then what I know now!

Comment by lip
2010-06-12 12:04:00

NM has many governmental installations for high tech and military. This week one of their talk radio DJs said that they were #3 in US gov money and I can attest to more construction work being completed in the state. Think new schools, new courthouses and new jails.

 
Comment by pismoclam
2010-06-12 21:19:05

Go read the Chronical which used to be a great paper. LAY and Carol Lloyd hang out there. Handing out disinformation.

 
 
Comment by Ben Jones
2010-06-12 12:49:47

Checking in from Gallup. NM. Gas is a lot lower than AZ at 2.50. Not much in the way of housing bubble interest, but I bought the Alberbuquerque Journal and it looks like several foreclosure related legal ads. I’m about two hours from there, so I’ll have to take a look around this afternoon. “Jobs outlook poor” article on the front page.

Comment by arizonadude
2010-06-12 15:56:24

I remember I drove over there from phx in 2005 and a place called rio grande or rio rancho was a hot spot.They have some pretty cold winters over there from what I remember.I think I stayed at gallop too.Wasnt it a glorified truck stop?

Comment by Ben Jones
2010-06-12 18:13:26

It’s a little rough around the edges, for sure. There were lots of houses for sale, but I didn’t have time for much FB spotting.

Comment by arizonadude
2010-06-13 09:44:58

Are you going to stop out by hollbrook and get some indian and dinsoaur souviners?

Albq sure has grown a lot for sure.Sante fe seems to be the pricey spot from what I saw.

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Comment by Ben Jones
2010-06-13 11:00:24

I’m in Santa Rosa now. BTW, the houses I did see for sale in ABQ were at $360k. That seems high for the salaries there.

 
 
 
 
Comment by Hwy50ina49Dodge
2010-06-13 07:50:56

Hey, been forget the newspapers, keep a count on how many help wanted signs you see…posted in the storefront windows! Oh, and for Mr. Cole, “Coming Soon!” signs ;-)

 
 
Comment by SanFranciscoBayAreaGal
2010-06-12 14:42:44

Here’s a song you might appreciate:

On the Road Again

On the road again -
Just can’t wait to get on the road again.
The life I love is making music with my friends

And I can’t wait to get on the road again.
On the road again

Goin’ places that I’ve never been.
Seein’ things that I may never see again

And I can’t wait to get on the road again.
On the road again -
Like a band of gypsies we go down the highway
We’re the best of friends.
Insisting that the world keep turning our way

And our way
is on the road again.
Just can’t wait to get on the road again.
The life I love is makin’ music with my friends

And I can’t wait to get on the road again.
On the road again

Like a band of gypsies we go down the highway
We’re the best of friends

Insisting that the world keep turning our way

And our way
is on the road again.
Just can’t wait to get on the road again.
The life I love is makin’ music with my friends

And I can’t wait to get on the road again.
And I can’t wait to get on the road again.

Willie Nelson

 
Comment by Sean
2010-06-12 17:27:20

“Whoa…..slow down there maestro…..There’s a NEW Mexico???”
-C. Montgomery Burns

I couldn’t resist - I’m a sucker for a good Simpsons quote.

Comment by SanFranciscoBayAreaGal
2010-06-13 10:14:28

Yup.

Love those Simpsons.

Comment by Doug in Boone, NC
2010-06-13 17:00:12

Speaking of The Simpsons, go to HULU.COM and watch “The Bob Next Door” (season 21, episode 22). The first five minutes or so are about just what we have been talking about here on the HBB.

Comment by Prime_Is_Contained
2010-06-14 11:23:17

That was AWESOME!!! :-) :-) :-)

Stuff like that showing up in mainstream comedy is a good sign that we’re finally moving out of the “denial” phase.

I think we’re still a long ways from acceptance, though.

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Comment by Big V
2010-06-14 18:43:29

The mourning stage, perhaps?

 
Comment by alpha-sloth
2010-06-15 10:04:16

Mourning in America

 
 
 
 
Comment by Itsabouttime
2010-06-13 14:54:38

Interesting. Meet the New Mexico. Same as the old Mexico.

Seems word is that many Latino/a families–extended families–are heading to New Mexico ahead of the new Arizona law taking effect.

http://newmexicoindependent.com/55673/illegal-immigrants-are-leaving-arizona

IAT

Comment by Arizona Slim
2010-06-14 07:55:36

And, here’s a news flash for them: There are quite a number of New Mexicans who are descended from the Spaniards who explored the place a-way back when. And they don’t like to be called Mexican. They’re Spanish. Big difference.

The newcomers will find this out in a hurry.

Comment by awaiting wipeout
2010-06-16 12:54:13

Az Slim,
Interesting post. Last weekend, while house shopping in So Ca, an adult anchor told me she was born here, but considers herself a Mexican, not an American. She had no loyalty to America. When I meet people like her, I only hope she’ll practice retro-active birth control on herself:)

I’m glad I didn’t like the house. I could not stand being her neighbor.

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Comment by Arizona Slim
2010-06-16 14:24:16

Wait ’til she goes to Mexico. They’ll take one look at her demeanor and say, “Americana.”

And, if they’re anything like the Canadians, they’ll take great joy in pointing out just how American she is.

 
Comment by awaiting wipeout
2010-06-16 15:06:29

Az Slim,
I can only hope she’ll visit her “real” country, as she so graciously pointed out to me, and told me to get away from her. She called me ignorant, because I call the illegals, “illegals”, and not “non-documented immigrants”. Either a Chicano Studies Major and/or a nitwit. Bad character, either way.

 
 
Comment by Chris D.
2010-06-17 08:10:05

I think NM has the highest percentage of Mexican-Americans whose citizenship predates 1900. Many families were granted citizenship for assisting the Union in driving out the Confederates during the Civil War. Union officials galloped up the Rio Grande ahead of the CSA invasion and warned Mexican farmers–who had little reason to worry about the political machinations 1,500 miles away to the East–that they would be driven out in favor of slave plantations if they did not rally to the flag. Amidst the current turmoil with illegal immigrants it’s good not to forget that New Mexicans have always been Americans. I learned all this on a business trip to Santa Fe. (http://www.sangres.com/history/civilwarnm.htm)

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Comment by Arizona Slim
2010-06-17 09:44:37

And don’t you dare call New Mexicans of Mexican descent Mexican. They are New Mexicans, and, oh are they proud of it.

BTW, I made the mistake of calling a New Mexican a Mexican once. The lady was polite but firm in correcting me. She was a New Mexican through and through.

 
 
 
 
 
Comment by 2banana
2010-06-12 17:43:29

Canadian RE Bubble

So, what will a million bucks buy you in Toronto?

http://www.realtor.ca/propertyDetails.aspx?propertyId=9618058

A crack house on a crack house street…

Comment by goedeck
2010-06-12 23:28:15

http___www_crackshackormansion_com/

 
 
Comment by Ben Jones
2010-06-12 18:11:46

Ok, we got the first photos up (see link in the body of the post). I had a lot of fun here in west ABQ. Note the first of many tips on “FB Spotting”.

Comment by 2banana
2010-06-12 18:42:20

New Mexico. Development next to Prima Entrada. Note the professional-looking boarding/screening job on the garage.

Some strange stuff in the land of FB…

Comment by Ben Jones
2010-06-12 18:45:44

Yeah, I’ve boarded garage’s before, but I never used spare doors for the wood. Very classy.

BTW, there had to be close to a thousand houses in this massive complex of subdivisions. I just drove down a handful of streets to find these foreclosures. Only about one in three had a for sale sign or UHS lockbox.

Comment by goedeck
2010-06-12 23:36:58

Why did they cover the garage door? Also that “unknown” object looks like a backboard for a movable basketball hoop, that you fill the base with water to weight it down.

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Comment by DennisN
2010-06-13 09:53:54

That house looks occupied, probably by lots of people. I’d guess there are some “extended family” members living in the garage, and have that screen and man-door set up so they can roll up the garage door when it cools off outside.

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Comment by Ben Jones
2010-06-14 05:38:25

It looked vacant to me. Also, I doubt the HOA would go for that kind of arrangement. This was a fairly nice, new complex and this door setup looks like hell.

 
 
 
 
 
Comment by alpha-sloth
2010-06-12 19:04:33

When you cross the continental divide, be sure to get out of the car and take a whiz in both directions (or a big circle if you’re unsure). I always like to do that- makes me feel like Zeus. (’Here’s a some for the Pacific, and here’s some for the Atlantic’.)

Comment by Ben Jones
2010-06-12 19:12:46

Not sure, but I think I already did, just east of Gallup. I saw a crude sign that said CD Campground.

Comment by alpha-sloth
2010-06-12 19:34:41

Hit it on the return trip. It’s on the bucket list. :wink:

 
Comment by goedeck
2010-06-12 23:39:51

exit 47

 
 
Comment by Sagesse
2010-06-13 07:01:06

Am jealous, don’t have the required plumbing.

Comment by sfbubblebuyer
2010-06-14 12:52:07

It just requires more awkward waddle/running from one side to the other of the CD. Where’s the commitment?

Comment by Prime_Is_Contained
2010-06-14 14:31:58

Crab-walk!!! :-)

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Comment by Big V
2010-06-14 18:41:27

Cartwheel.

 
 
Comment by REhobbyist
2010-06-15 21:17:11

Eew. I think I’ll just drive by the Continental Divide from now on without getting out of the car. Too much man-pee around.

 
 
Comment by Cantankerous Intellectual Bomb-thrower
2010-06-12 22:05:49

“Jim Peach, who teaches economics at New Mexico State University, refers to it as ‘fallacy of composition.’ ‘Saving may be very good for me and you as individuals, but the fallacy of composition is: if everybody does it, then we’re not consuming and incomes may be lower,’ Peach said.”

I call it the ‘fallacy of Keynesian collapse.’

- Too much stimulus drove consumption to unsustainable heights, from which a collapse would at a minimum result in a critical injury, if not an outright fatality.

- The injury during the collapse phase is attributed to an excess of precautionary savings, when if everyone had saved and spent more prudently from the beginning, the consumption and production imbalances which led to the crash would never have accumulated.

Comment by SaladSD
2010-06-12 23:10:31

Being a fan of 19th century literature I always think of consumption as a fatal disease. A euphemism for tuberculosis, so named because it seemed to consume people from within, with a bloody cough, fever, pallor, and long relentless wasting. With our present economic malaise, consumption seems to have a similar connotation.

 
Comment by Big V
2010-06-14 18:39:01

Could there possibly be a dosage effect here? I mean, if everyone saves everything they earn, then no one is consuming, sure. I suppose they would all die in that case because they wouldn’t be buying food, etc, either. Could work if everyone was living on a completely self-sustaining farm and no one had to trade with anyone, but that’s not how we live, so it’s kind of irrelavent.

But what if everyone saves 10%? What then? Wouldn’t households be more stable, less dependent on “everything working out”, and not on the verge of economic collapse? They would still be consuming 90% of their income.

Now what if everyone saves 0%? What if everyone goes even further and saves -5% (like at the peak of the bubble)? Doesn’t that eventually lead to massive defaults, followed by a credit crunch and massive government bailouts?

Comment by REhobbyist
2010-06-15 21:21:02

I think of all the schmucks who sock 10% of their income in 401K mutual funds, where it immediately siphoned off to Wall street. Anyone who started saving for retirement ten years ago has nothing to show for it, unless they sold high. Most didn’t.

Comment by The_Overdog
2010-06-16 12:50:44

I started saving in my 401k 10 years ago, almost. Actually like 9 years and 9 months. I have something to show for it, six figures of somethings actually.

I’d not call that nothing.

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Comment by Ben Jones
2010-06-13 07:18:13

Going over the Alb Journal I bought yesterday, the front page story mentions 34,000 jobs were lost in 2009, mostly in construction, etc.

I guess being a Saturday paper, there are not many for sale ads. But here are some that caught my eye:

BANK SAYS SELL, at below amount owed, 149 acres for $79k, 6,000 feet elevation N NM.

Builder has 4 RR lots, must sell before bank takes, $28.5 each, 1000s below recent appraisal.

Mortgagee short sale 20 acre ranch, next to BLM land and Rio Salado river, first $17.9k takes it.

There is a big ad for auctions, most with a ‘nominal opening bid’ of $10k.

And I guess in NM they have to post legal notices for each trustee sale (or maybe these are just the judicial foreclosures?), as there is 1 and a half pages of these. It’s the usual suspects, but the many are BAC or Bank of America for Countrywide.

Anyway, I can see that the housing bubble was definitely present in ABQ.

 
Comment by Brett
2010-06-13 09:10:20

Hey guys,
Ben will be in Austin the 15th-17th of July. I am interested in showing him around some of the high-development areas in Central Austin (78701, 78703, 78702, 78704).
I know there are a couple of folks from Austin. You should email Ben if you are interested in meeting while he’s in town!
I would also would like to know if you any ideas of where to go.

Comment by Real Estate Refugee
2010-06-13 11:36:51

I happen to know that he’s fond of good beer and Tiki bars, but probably not at the same time.

Comment by Ben Jones
2010-06-14 18:56:09

Tiki bars are all about rum drinks with umbrellas!

Comment by In Montana
2010-06-15 09:20:57

oh man I miss those places!

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Comment by DennisN
2010-06-15 09:55:33

Geez we’ve even got one in Boise now.

http://www.reefboise.com/reef/

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Comment by Ben Jones
2010-06-14 05:40:43

OK, I’ve landed in N TX and headed into Dallas/Ft Worth today for a look around and photos. I should have some observations and pics on the fly during the day.

Going to Austin for a few days starting tomorrow.

 
Comment by DinOR
2010-06-14 07:28:23

Not often I’m at a loss but “the kids” went to look at some property over the weekend, about 12 acres near Sublimity, OR. Daughter #1’s research showed it to be purchased in 1998 for ( get this ) $775,000.

The owner ( quite a goofball as per SIL ) met them at the prop. ( raw acreage and I DO mean ‘raw’ ) and offered it at $149,000. Kiddo did further research and virtually NO ONE will lend over -half- of assessed. ( Currently ass. @ $63k )

I just can’t feature that? Firstly it’s been made clear to ‘me’ in no uncertain terms that there was no bubble in OR! That is ( not until things “got really crazy”, somewhere between the Fall of ‘06 but before I buttered my bagel on the morning of Jan 17th 2007? )

So I asked if it had been logged off and was nothing but stumps and SIL says no. No evidence this place has ever met w/ an AXE let alone a chain saw? There’s no road and we figure a good $30k ( if you rent and did it ‘yourself’ ) So…. the kids are offering $63k. Like it or lump it. I can only assume the guy is trying to trigger a Tax Loss. Guys, I’m open at this point.

Comment by sfbubblebuyer
2010-06-14 12:56:09

Hey, at least they’re looking at buying land. It’s better than a giant house on a postage stamp sized lot.

 
Comment by DennisN
2010-06-15 10:00:18

Beware of funky Oregon property tax “changes”.

 
Comment by B. Durbin
2010-06-20 15:54:52

Make sure they check Oregon use laws. Some of them are really screwy and it’s possible that even if they own the land, they won’t be allowed to build on it… and will have to pay environmental mitigation for their “underused” property.

I know that a lot of Oregonians who own property are confused by the regulations in place, and a lot of people who bought retirement property got blindsided by changes coming out of Salem and Portland.

 
 
Comment by Prime_Is_Contained
2010-06-14 11:35:05

Hey Ben,

What day do you arrive in D.C.? I’ll be in that vicinity (northern VA) the week prior, and would love to meet up and buy you a beer. I might be able to make it for some peaceful assembly as well.

Anyway, wondering when you arrive, and how much we overlap, cause I fly back out on the 26th unfortunately.

Comment by oxide
2010-06-14 15:54:55

The big pow-wow looks to be Friday evening the 25th, somewhere downtown DC. Exact time and place unknown as of yet.

 
Comment by San Diego RE Bear
2010-06-14 16:20:25

HI Prime:

Ben’s in town the 23rd and the 25th is the day we march on Washington. (Or at least stumbles towards various Congress Critters offices.) I’ll be keeping in touch with interested parties via e-mail if you want to e-mail me at sd.re.b at hotmail dot com

 
 
Comment by Ben Jones
2010-06-14 12:05:11

Got some new pics up from N Ft Worth. Check out the 0% down sign on the same block with 2 foreclosures. Or the boarded door. These are nearly new subdivisions too. I’m still FB spotting here in DFW so check back later.

Comment by Arizona Slim
2010-06-14 12:10:01

What really cracks me up is the fact that the phone books, door hangers, and other promotional things are left at these properties.

I mean, come on. They’re unoccupied and boarded up. So, why the need for a phone book or a pizza discount promotion?

Comment by DennisN
2010-06-14 16:03:55

The classic sign of an abandoned house is IMHO the phone book in a bag. You can easily see the phone book from the street without even getting out of your car. Around here there are no fewer than FOUR phone book companies tossing their litter around.

 
Comment by Va Beyatch in Norfolk
2010-06-15 11:40:44

Because the yellow pages company counts every book left on an abandoned home doorstep as distribution for their advertisers.

Comment by Arizona Slim
2010-06-15 12:32:38

Which tells you a lot about the boneheadeness of people running yellow page companies.

After all, how many times have you used the phone book lately as compared to, say, Google? I’ll bet that Google is the hands-down winner.

BTW, in Scandinavia, phone books are no longer distributed. Reason: All of the info that’s in them is online.

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Comment by Prime_Is_Contained
2010-06-15 18:19:22

When the people who still buy ads in them wake up to the fact that no one uses them anymore, distribution of them will stop here as well.

 
 
 
 
Comment by The_Overdog
2010-06-14 12:51:15

Holy crap that house with the 2nd color rock mixed in with the brick is ugly. (pic #30 i think). It looks like they ran out of bricks in that one small section.

That makes those boxy NM houses look beautiful by comparison.

Comment by sfbubblebuyer
2010-06-14 16:05:08

I had to go and look based on your comment, and I was flabbergasted at the sheer stupidity of that. It’s not even like the shade is even CLOSE to correct! I was expecting a mix-up in distribution of stones from the same order, for instance, too many of a darker color used on one wall making it look unbalanced.

Instead, it looks like every lego house I ever made. Seriously mismatched coloring.

 
Comment by Big V
2010-06-14 18:31:48

Is that the one with horizontal grey bick, offset by horizontal red stone, offset by diagonaly placed grey brick? I thought it was a psychadelic mind game when I first saw it. Then I was like, oh no, it’s a house, SHIIIIIIIIT!

 
 
Comment by scdave
2010-06-15 08:05:50

How about that Condo overlooking Texas Motor Speedway…

 
 
Comment by Big V
2010-06-14 16:47:12

Check out these condos that Ben took a picture of:

http://www.highrises.com/fort-worth/available-texas-motor-speedway-condos-for-sale/

Too funny.

Comment by Ben Jones
2010-06-14 18:08:45

Yeah, they call those residential? I want to reside at an isolated racetrack for $700k…

DFW is still buzzing with activity, like AZ in 2006, going over the cliff. I thought it was telling that these guys are still putting up spec houses just down the street from foreclosures that aren’t for sale.

Comment by In Montana
2010-06-15 09:22:19

Good, my nephew is in Dallas flipping. Maybe he’s making money after all..

 
 
Comment by Va Beyatch in Norfolk
2010-06-15 11:43:10

That’s bizarre, but a company I used to work for drop $1.2 million on a 24 seat box at the redskins stadium in DC. That was for 10 years I believe.

 
Comment by mikey
2010-06-16 19:31:57

Sheesh… the penthouse roof views look like an updated Third Encounters of the 3rd Kind.

Just play the weird organ music and stack those aliens up counter-clockwise behind car # 23 Ed.

:)

 
 
Comment by Ben Jones
2010-06-15 07:52:14

I’m headed down to Austin today. I’ll take some photos in the hill country along hwy 281 and post those as I go. It’ll be interesting to see what’s been going on housing wise the past few years.

Comment by Brett
2010-06-15 15:46:43

It’s a nice drive… did you stop by Fredericksburg to buy wine?

Comment by Ben Jones
2010-06-15 16:11:27

No, I took 183 from Lampasas to do some FB spotting and ended up in retail hell. Lots to report on when I stop.

Comment by Big V
2010-06-15 16:17:11

Sounds like fun. Let us know when you’re there.

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Comment by Reuven
2010-06-15 10:41:34

“‘Both the homeowners and the lenders of these upside-down homes are in a no win situation,FLS President George Roddy said. ‘Generally, the homeowner cannot sell the home for what they owe on the mortgage and most often, the lender cannot sell the home after repossessing it for the amount that they have invested in the mortgage and other costs that the lender has incurred.’”

Of course, if the homeowner didn’t put any money down and has been paying the minimum on a pick-a-pay or a teaser rate, he can walk away and win big! He’s been able to make an “investment” with no downside.

Really now, only the lenders are the losers.

Comment by Big V
2010-06-15 11:38:17

You’d think with all the bailout money they’ve gotten, they would have quickly gotten out of their bad positions and left the party with minimal losses. Unfortunately though, they are so dumb that they have chosen instead to live off the TARP money for a year or two, hide their REO as shadow inventory, and defer their losses while simultaneously maximizing them.

Lenders are losers.

 
 
Comment by DennisN
2010-06-16 00:51:30

That sign Ben posted on the photo site reading “Real Estate Investor Seeks Apprentice” is really odd. Similar signs have showed up around Boise using the same terminology, and they even were on similar yellow plastic stock. I wonder whether there’s some national network of scammers behind it.

Comment by Big V
2010-06-16 08:27:15

I’ve seen a whole bunch of them around California too.

 
 
Comment by Ben Jones
2010-06-16 06:58:59

I’m in Austin, now and my how things have changed in central TX the years since I’ve been here. On the way down from the Dallas area, two things were evident. For the first time since the 80s/90s downturn, the economy has really picked up. Judging from the activity I saw, the oil biz is doing pretty well. It was nice to see the little towns not look so economically depressed. But the second obvious little boom going on is with real estate. And apparently the point in the cycle is that everybody is trying to cash in. I picked up some RE catalogs along the way as thick as phone books. Many of the houses are offered with land, so it’s not easy to size up, but acre asking prices go from somewhat reasonable $1500 to $6500 to ridiculous. And the silly prices are always tied to possible development.

I suppose I can say that the housing bubble reached places it is hard to believe. I’ve got some photos to post later from Morgan Mill where the ‘luxury’ home sites are asking $40k for 2 acre lots. This land was probably bought for a fraction of that just a few years ago.

Like I said, I was glad to see people working and some store fronts open. But I have to wonder how much of it will stick.

I also tried to see more development on 183 coming into Austin from the west, but traffic and retail growth made that difficult. I did stop and take some pics from a Centex/Pulte subdivision in Leander, and found a foreclosure right off and spec houses going up all over the place. Those should be posted later this morning as well. I’m off shortly to take in all the condos and office condos sitting just around the corner.

One observation; Austin never saw a huge dip after the dotcom bust, as the housing bubble filled its sails before it got too bad. What will this extended double mania mean for the area housing market? I’ll try and see for myself the next couple of days.

Comment by DennisN
2010-06-16 09:12:43

Were those Morgan Mill lots “prepared” with all streets and utilities, or just unprepared lots?

Comment by Ben Jones
2010-06-16 09:44:25

I think that development is just getting started. They are just putting in the stone parts of the fencing. I would expect that to include roads and utilities. The people marketing it didn’t even have the higher prices for the larger lots yet. I believe this is Bosque county.

I thought about this for a bit before I posted it. While $40k for 2 acres might not seem overpriced, this area was priced at around 1-2k and acre a few years ago and not much was selling. Now all the prices have skyrocketed and, predictably, it seems like the entire mid part of the state is for sale.

 
 
 
Comment by scdave
2010-06-16 09:09:55

Nice new pic’s from Austin Ben…

Comment by Ben Jones
2010-06-16 09:34:43

Some of those were sent in by Brett. I hope to get more of downtown later today or tonight. And I’m headed down to Hays county right now to look at Kyle/Buda.

Comment by Brett
2010-06-16 11:21:39

I sent you an email to show u around Downtown.

 
 
 
Comment by Ben Jones
2010-06-17 06:39:51

I am starting to realize how much I am learning on this trip. By taking to time to drive the streets, going through the RE catalogs, and talking with people in the business, I can see things I’d never notice reading newspapers. For instance, here in Austin, the ‘it’s different here’ mentality is obvious even as all the familiar signs pile up. Speculative building is rampant, drive-till-you-qualify into areas with zero down loans, giant empty condo towers with silly prices looming over the city. I’m going through the little glossy RE book, and sure enough this page or that is dedicated to short sales or foreclosures. And that’s how it starts, as we’ve seen elsewhere.

I noted in a radio show a couple of years ago that these markets don’t move together, but do seem to follow each other in symmetry. I was thinking about that this morning, and wondering what explains what is happening in Texas. There were certain factors that bumped it out of time with the rest of the country, and it’s there for all to see. The dotcom dip, the oil boost, the relative lack of California equity speculation. “All RE is local” is an oversimplification; micro economics is local. Once the slide begins, those things that are unsustainable begin to unwind. Those areas I photographed yesterday south of Austin took off in the mid 90’s. I just happen to know this because I lived there at the time.

The factors that made Dallas and Austin ‘immune’ merely gave it the rope to be hanged, IMO. I’ll bet that there will come a day when most here wish those condo towers had been canceled. The subdivisions in Buda and Kyle will get socked by foreclosures and those zero down builder programs will come back to haunt them, as will the reckless spec building in every corner of the metro. Dallas and Austin are about to get spanked, and from what I see, it should be every bit as bad as Phoenix.

Comment by Brett
2010-06-17 06:55:57

If that happends, I may actually buy a condo. 400+ per sq ft is not ‘affordable’ right now

Comment by Ben Jones
2010-06-17 07:31:28

What we’ve seen in other markets is problems popping up that make for a complicated mess with condo towers. The commonality of the ownership is huge, as all parties have to agree (or be forced) into one direction. Then certain owners aren’t happy with that direction, and lawsuits fly, people walk, fees don’t get paid, upkeep doesn’t happen. And that isn’t even considering foreclosures or the second home nature of these units.

One big problem I see for Austin is these things are right in the middle of the CBD. As we discussed last night, the property tax rate in Texas makes these units a heavy burden, even before what has to be very expensive downtown maintenance.

Last night I ran into a UHS who was selling those towers until recently. She said the majority of buyers were international and had paid cash. Foreign or not, it’s my contention these owners are speculating. And when it becomes clear that prices not going up, they will look for ways to bail. The twists and turns of how that plays out can be seen in San Diego, Las Vegas, and Florida. If I had to guess, I’s say they’ll end up as a mix of apartments and hotel rooms.

Comment by ProperBostonian
2010-06-17 08:57:28

“fees don’t get paid, upkeep doesn’t happen”

A friend of mine’s 100-year-old apt building was converted into condos during the bubble. The wooden porches need to be rebuilt at a cost of $16,000 per owner. Some of the owners (failed flippers) have refused to pay because they are trying to bail out of the building; they’ve already been sued for nonpayment of condo fees. Buyers were charged about $40,000 more per unit for a porch that is now unsafe to use.

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Comment by Arizona Slim
2010-06-17 09:45:56

Funny you should mention falling-apart condo complexes. I just worked on a water harvesting project at such a place.

The walkways were being supported by bracing, and I couldn’t help thinking that this was the most visible of the complex’s structural problems.

 
 
 
Comment by scdave
2010-06-17 08:25:21

Ben or Bret…I love these pic’s…Its one thing to read about it but there is nothing better then to see it with your own eyes..Thanks for the effort..

Question; In the four season’s tower, were there people working in the downstairs retail ?? In other words, did it appear that retail tenants were preparing to move in ??

Comment by Ben Jones
2010-06-17 08:34:30

I looked in the front spaces downstairs and none were finished or occupied. Most still had dirt floors, and the only signage was one for a hair salon. I mentioned this to the UHS who had been there the day before and she was surprised. I don’t know why, it’s right there on the ground floor for anybody to see. If you can put together a multi-million dollar project like that you should be able to get a hair salon done on time. I wonder if they aren’t rushing the finish so people don’t back out of the contracts.

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Comment by Brett
2010-06-17 08:56:50

There’s nothing there yet… I have to drive every day in front of this building to get to work, and they barely finished construction.
Neither the Austonian or the Four Seasons are officially open.

About the Austonian: The 56-story, $250 million, 188-unit luxury condo tower is the tallest residential building west of the Mississippi.

About the Four Seasons: 32-story project features 148 units and a 32nd floor sundeck. Least Expensive Unit: $400,000 ($400/SF) .

The HOAs are very expensive too (this is the monthly HOA per sq ft):

W Hotel & Residences………$0.61
Four Seasons Residences……$0.61
Austonian…. . . . . . . . .$0.64

So, you’d be paying $640 a month for 1000 sq ft if you wanna live in the Austonian…

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Comment by scdave
2010-06-17 10:45:06

Okay…Got it…The retailers are savey enough to know that a large part of their bottom line are the residence that live above them…Thats the whole pitch really…If the retailers are not coming in it tells you something is wrong upstairs…

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Comment by Sagesse
2010-06-17 07:02:54

Did all these new high rises around Pensacola Beach keep the UFO’s away, these last five years?

(I don’t know if my previous comment will post, it was about the beach houses on Navarre beach, ten times the number that I recall from ten years ago).

 
Comment by Hwy50ina49Dodge
2010-06-17 10:18:48

Ben, you may need to change the background color of your HBB blog. All I’ve heard for years is yakety-yak about the “greying” of America, but all these SI photos display is the “beige”-ing of America.

The “beige”-ing of America
The “Beijing”-ing of America

That’s it, lunch & drinks at a “Breastaurant” today! ;-)

 
Comment by wittbelle
2010-06-17 11:33:29

I LOVED the picture of the condemned apartment building immediately following the slide that described parts of Austin as “up and coming”. That’s up and coming, alright. Lots of fresh air, I bet! Where do I sign up?

 
Comment by jetson_boy
2010-06-17 11:50:22

The comments about Austin have me a tad worried. I live in the Bay Area now, have been renting the same dirt-cheap house for 8 years, and my Wife and I have saved up quite a bit of cash. We’re planning on moving to Austin next year. These stories make me hope we’re not about to step out of one bubble ( Apparently home prices in the Bay Area have already shot up 20% ) and into another. $400,000 for anything in Austin is ridiculous. The taxes are so high that hell- even a $200,000 house is going to have a heavy tax bill.

Anyone who live there have a lo-down of what’s going on? We’re looking at buying an older boring suburban home for $150k. Or less.

Comment by The_Overdog
2010-06-17 12:02:28

You can still do that no-problemo. It’s really only the ‘hot’ areas that are rising like crazy. You can also buy a new home for $150k if when you say suburbs you really mean suburbs (20-30+ miles).

Comment by jetson_boy
2010-06-17 12:06:50

Whoops. I meant that to be a response. Sorry. See comment below.

 
 
Comment by Brett
2010-06-17 13:44:11

yikes… $150k will get an older single-family home in the suburbs (Cedar Park, Leander, Round Rock) or you may get a ‘fixer upper’ in a ‘transitional’ neighborhood closer to Central Austin such as East Austin, Manchaca Rd south of 290, South East Austin or near Rundberg Rd. I personally would not live in those areas; I would much rather live in the suburbs.

You can check the local MLS listings here:
http://crosslandteam.com/search-austin-realtor-listings/
send me an email if you want some feedback.

 
 
Comment by jetson_boy
2010-06-17 12:05:46

I’ve been kind of thinking South Austin. I visited it last year. A little crummy and really small houses, which is fine with me. I saw a number for under 150k. These were older houses. Does that sound realistic? Are there areas not far from town that are reasonable? I’m willing to do maybe 175k max.

Comment by Ben Jones
2010-06-17 13:25:31

Traffic’s a b@tch in Austin, so far from town depends on what time of day you are talking about. Brett was telling me about S Austin last night, and apparently prices took off there too. It used to be a lot of drug/prostitution went on there, but I won’t have time to check it out this trip. Just be aware what has happened the last few years.

BTW, I hope to get some photos of west campus and east Austin this evening.

Comment by Brett
2010-06-17 13:47:50

What did you think of West Campus & East Austin?

78703 took off a lot… if you go to the MLS, there are 5 listings under 200k in this zip code, but they are in the south portion of 78703, which is rough.

78745 has smaller, older homes, and this area became very popular with first-timer home buyers b/c they are cheaper and they are ‘close’ to downtown.

Traffic is AWFUL! I would not recommend living more than 5 miles away from home. We pretty much have 2 freeways: I-35 and Mopac that run North to South, and they are shared with trucks that commute between South Texas and Dallas.

 
Comment by jetson_boy
2010-06-17 13:50:37

We visited Austin last year to ’spec it out’ and toured a lot of neighborhoods. We spent 4 days driving around. What we found was that certain parts of South Austin-like up in the hills- were extremely expensive. As in houses for $500,000-$600,000. Crazy considering those areas had a 3% annual property tax. So in reality the prices were WORSE than the Bay Area. On the other hand “down the hill” was a lot cheaper for some reason. The houses were not as nice nor as “cute”. Lots of unremarkable 60’s rancher homes in questionable neighborhoods. We ran into a number of younger couples like us ( 20’s and 30’s) who lived in the less expensive parts of S. Austin. The reason is the same old story: One part of S. Austin has a good school system. The other not so much. Thus the huge disparity in cost.

I remember when I first started thinking about Austin 3-4 years ago all the forums and blogs pertaining to moving there had a lot of hype about Round Rock. We headed out towards Round Rock at rush hour one morning to see. The traffic coming from it was AWFUL. Round Rock itself was “Cookie-Cutter Anywhere USA” with massive amounts of jumbo houses and big box stores. It seems clear that this area was sold like mad to outsiders who wanted the whole nine yards- the big house, the shopping centers, etc etc. The houses are reasonable but hideous and right next to one another. No way in hell I’d live there.

To the West were a lot of what appeared to be retiree and rich people suburbs. There was a town called “Bee Caves’ which was full of huge Mcmansions with very high price tags as well as a lot of retirement golf communities.

To the South of Austin outside the city, there was a lot less traffic and a lot of smaller more rural towns with typically unremarkable housing. Lots of 50’s-70’s houses, which is fine by me. There was a lot less traffic. I grew up in the middle of nowhere so these more rural areas appealed to me.

Austin was sort of funny. Parts of it really reminded me of the bay area with its hoity-toity cute gentrified neighborhoods. Downtown was chock-full of hipsters and fancy pubs, restaurants, and grocery stores. I’m generally tired of gentrification. It feels plastic and fake. At the same time there were a lot of really laid-back, genuinely friendly people. We met a lot of folks who were just as nice as could be. I’m a Southern guy so I appreciated that. Housing prices were all over the place. Its very different from the Bay Area where just about all of the housing except the ghettos is incredibly overpriced. Home prices in Austin seemed to vary from block to block.

All I know is that after 10 years of the Bay Area and 10 years of saving, I’m ready as hell to get out of here and live somewhere that we can afford to live and not make ourselves mortgage slaves. Austin makes sense for me career wise since there’s a lot more work there for what I do versus smaller creative cities like Nashville. But reading stories like these makes me feel Austin will be another bubble city anyday and with its high taxes I’d rather not have to deal with more BS. Maybe I’ll just move to the sticks and work a Joe job. sigh…..

Comment by Brett
2010-06-17 15:15:40

Austin is a very nice town; most people are very very laid back. You can go to some of the nicest restaurants and people will be wearing sandals and shorts. Downtown is very ‘hip’, but it’s where the young people concentrate. We’ve had 6th St for many decades, and it’s been party-central for students and young professionals for a very long time. It’s had a facelift, and it’s a great are to live.

We do have very high property taxes; however, there is NOT a state income tax. All the taxes there are to pay are: 8.25% consumption tax and 2.5 - 3% property tax.

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Comment by Wickedheart
2010-06-17 19:28:53

“At the same time there were a lot of really laid-back, genuinely friendly people. We met a lot of folks who were just as nice as could be. I’m a Southern guy so I appreciated that.”

There are a lot things I don’t like about Texas but the people there isn’t one of them. I found them to be really nice people too. When oldest daughter was in the military she dated a few southern boys. They were always my favorites. I do wish though they wouldn’t call me Ma’am. :)

We’re thinking about Northern Nevada. No tax income tax, low property tax and close proximity to CA. Or maybe Temecula.

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Comment by Bad Chile
2010-06-17 22:31:33

Bad Chile checking in here…I’ve been offline for over a month now, due to the move to New Mexico.

Dang is real estate out of whack in the Duke City. It was a lateral move for me (same salary), and while the rent on a nicer apartment nearly 50% larger than our old digs back east is almost half of what we paid there, homes are just *insane*. We’re doing great renting…but if the time comes to buy, we’ll continue to be housing nomads. Not a bad way to go. There is no way salaries here in NM can support the home prices that we’re seeing. None. As for work - there is less work in the office here than in the office back east, I’m seriously starting to wonder about when I get told to back up the Chile’s and go back east. Hopefully not until after this winter. So my unscientific, biased, single-set-of-eyes observation is: New Mexico is more out of whack than New England. Which up until a month ago I would have laughed you out of the room if you told me that.

Of course, it is nice to be back in my homeland (I’m a native), and the weather is nearly perfect, and I like the slower pace of life. And beer is cheaper.

Ben: Sorry I missed the original announcement of your travels. Otherwise I would have picked up the tab on some food and beer for you.

Comment by ProperBostonian
2010-06-18 06:29:01

“there is less work in the office here than in the office back east, I’m seriously starting to wonder about when I get told to back up the Chile’s and go back east.”

That happened to a friend of mine. He was working for a global IT company in Boston and was in charge of decentralizing the accounting offices. He had the option of telecommuting from anywhere so he moved back home to rural Michigan. After moving back home, the company decided decentralizing the accounting offices was a bad idea and laid him off in the middle of the dotcom bust. He was unemployed for a long time and had to move back to Boston w/a family of 5.

 
 
Comment by scdave
2010-06-18 12:23:35

Checking in on the pic’s again today…Nice job guys..
My favorite pic so far is #83…Toooo Funny… :)

 
Comment by jeff saturday
2010-06-25 06:57:39

18

 
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