Bits Bucket For July 26, 2010
Post off-topic ideas, links and Craigslist finds here.
The Housing Bubble
Examining the home price boom and its effect on owners, lenders, regulators, realtors and the economy as a whole.
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Name:Ben Jones
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Holy moly, there is a new lawyer ad in the Tampa Bay area in which the guy says, “call me and see if a strategic default is right for you.”
Saw it again. Here it is:
http://www.kelattorneys.com/strategic-default.html
No FB dollar shall be allowed to escape.
Just get it over with: Call-up these lawyers and turn over whatever is left of your rapidly diminishing supply of money.
Possible side effects include: vomiting, nausea, low credit score, extreme denial, loss of appetite, loss of respect of brother-in-law, diahrreah, erectile-dysfuntion, laziness, buyers-remorse, dizziness, false-euphoria, brain-flatulence, urinary incontinence, indegestion, low self-esteem, false hope, fake change, artificially-high stock prices, depression, outrageous wall street bounuses, sickening incessant presidential speeches, headache, indefiniet-extened-UE benefits, shrinking testicles, shrinking middle-class, social unrest, cramping, bloating in the deficit-region, Congressional hearings, accelerated heart-rate, accelerated printing-press, dependency on government, and possible weight-gain.
Call your lawyer and find out if Strategic Default is right for you.
Drug interaction notice: When taken with massive doses of TARP, Strategic Default can result in irregular accounting movement which has been proven to cause Sovereign-Debt Implosion-Syndrome followed by severe cash-hemmoraging possibly resulting in Death of Capitalism.
(nursing mothers and pregnant woemen may run additional risk of indebetedness-for-life of offspring disease which has proven fatal in laboratory experiments.)
If side-effects persist, seek emergency hyperinflation.
Call your Treasury Secretary for any stock market slump lasting longer than 4 hours.
My Lawyer says my wallet’s empty!
“I’m so poor, I can’t even afford to go bankrupt!”
- old TV ad for a local law firm
Taxes not falling with home values
Property owners being taxed at pre-recession selling prices
The State Newspaper
While the lingering sour economy drags down high-end and coastal property values, South Carolina homeowners are complaining they still are paying taxes based on what their homes were worth before the recession.
Homes in the $400,000-plus range statewide are selling for from 5 percent to 50 percent less than they did during the boom years of 2005-2007, according to industry experts. But counties only reassess home values every five years, which means many tax bills have not dropped to reflect the lower values.
“The counties need to be concerned with getting those values changed as quickly as possible,” said state Rep. Chip Limehouse, R-Charleston.
A waterfront Charleston home, for example, that sold for $1.5 million three years ago would be worth closer to $750,000 today, Limehouse said, because homes around it have sold for much less or been through a foreclosure. But the owner of that house still is being taxed on double its current value, he said.
In the Columbia area, the drop-off in prices has not been as drastic.
A home in Northeast Richland’s Wildewood subdivision that sold for about $625,000 last year, for example, is on the market today for $550,000 — a 12 percent decrease. But since property values were recalculated countywide last year, the taxes since the sale have increased 36 percent to $3,000 to reflect the $625,000 sale, according to tax records.
Some say even when assessors are reducing values, they are not dropping them enough on high-end homes.
Tax officials say there are other issues as well, including fraud, particularly among second-homeowners who are more sharply hit in the wallet because of the higher tax rate on vacation homes.
They also say some homeowners are abusing the state’s lower tax rate on agricultural land.
Well surprise, surprise. County/muni revenue streams are in peril and the stimulus was used to paper over that fact. Barring an instant snap back to boom times - a humdinger of a feedback loop is setting up here.
But it can’t be true! After all, we all know that there’s a 60 minute wait at Chili’s on Friday nights.
Eddie must tell them he needs seating for a party of thirty trolls or something.
I challenged the assessed value last year. It came back 100K lower than the new value and about 30K less than the old one. My property tax bill went down.
You’re the exception, not the rule though. But congrats on having what must be a compotent local gov’t for being able to shoulder a “voluntary” cut in revenue like that.
We can thank TABOR, which indexes growth in gov’t spending to inflation and population growth.
You didn’t see these a-holes complaining when they were paying 1/2 of the taxes of new purchasers because they weren’t going to be reassessed for another few years.
They can bite it.
Do they really perform an on-site inspection type of appraisal every 5 years? Or do they just fake it?
Here in ID the county assessor re-appraises all houses every year. Your acreage and house square footage is a matter of public record, and the assessor comes up with an annual “price per square foot” for your immediate neighborhood. He then plugs in the numbers and voila! An annual appraisal.
Supposedly SC visits all properties on the tax rolls every five years to see if they’ve been added to or otherwise modified in such a way as to increase their value. IIRC, that’s going on this year.
With the deductions to assessed value we get due to being over 65, the rate we pay as full-time residents, and the fact that most school funding was removed from property tax when they increased the sales tax, I would be embarrassed to tell you how little we pay in property taxes.
Especially compared to what we paid in places like Florida and Maryland.
defn. taxes: A means of punishing you for adding value to something.
First time I have seen this “they OVER loaned me” comment from
Terminally ill Jupiter Farms woman behind on home loan alleges collector taunted, harassed her
By Kimberly Miller Palm Beach Post Staff Writer
Posted: 9:54 p.m. Sunday, July 25, 2010
A Palm Beach County woman diagnosed with terminal brain cancer is suing her home loan servicer following what she said were relentless harassing phone calls that further harmed her health when she fell behind on payments.
The suit, filed by Angela Birster, 45, along with her husband, Paul Birster, 47, accuses American Home Mortgage Servicing Inc. of violating state and federal consumer collection laws, as well as intentionally inflicting emotional distress.
“Had the exact same thing happen to me. The collector called me names and belittled me saying that I was worthless and a low life for not paying my debt. “How Rude”. Of course I ended up losing the house after they OVER loaned me and put me out of my home. They knew I would not be able to keep up the payments when they loaned me money and charged me a hefty 17 grand in fees etc. That went into their own pockets.”
Bill
1:42 AM, 7/26/2010
“they OVER loaned me”
I guess she had no idea at the time she signed the loan paper work that she was the victim of being “over Loaned.”
Once when we were getting pre-approved for loan, the bank said we’ll lend you up to x amount. My wife and knew on the spot we would be in over our heads if we borrowed the max. We ended up setting up a credit line for half of the max amount the bank had offered. It’s not hard to figure out what you can and can’t afford.
Over loan me, over loan me, roll me over in the clover and do it again.
O the summer time has come
And the trees are sweetly blooming
And wild mountain thyme
Grows around the purple heather
Will you loan, lassie, loan?
And we’ll all go together
To pull wild mountain thyme
All around the purple heather
Will you loan, lassie, loan?
I will build my love a tower
By yon clear crystal fountain
And on it I will pile
All the flowers of the mountain
Will you loan, lassie, loan?
And we’ll all go together
To pull wild mountain thyme
All around the purple heather
Will you loan, lassie, loan?
I will range through the wilds
And the deep land so dreary
and return with the spoils
to the borower o’ my dearie
Will ye loan lassie loan?
And we’ll all go together
To pull wild mountain thyme
All around the purple heather
Will you loan, lassie, loan?
If my true love she’ll not come
then I’ll surely find another
To pull wild mountain thyme
All around the purple heather
Will you loan, lassie, loan?
And we’ll all go together
To pull wild mountain thyme
All around the purple heather
Will you loan, lassie, loan?
Liar’s poker:
“I’ll see your overloan, and raise you a strategic default.”
“Overloaned” is one of the strategies some unscrupulous new car dealerships use to maximize their profits. A very gullible customer buys more car than he/she can afford. The dealer knows that after a few months the customer will come back saying that he/she can not afford the payments, at which time the customer will be traded down into a lesser vehicle. The most expensive used car some people will ever drive - a complete JT job.
And the scam requires two people: an unscrupulous sales person and a mark trying to live beyond their means.
“They overloaned me.” No, nature underbrained you and greed overcame you.
$17K in fees? Realized, sadly only after the previous celebrated fact!
I guess the supermarket over-sold me food, that’s why I’m so fat.
The wine company overfilled my bottle. That’s why I’m so drunk
No joke. “Overserved” is a real liability.
I am not aware of such liability as to the person doing the drinking. I think you are referring to dram shop laws, which make those that serve alcohol to those that they know or should know are drunk jointly liable for the injuries the drunk causes to others, mainly in the drunk driving context.
My Congressman overrepresented the Megabanks.
yes.
Hmm, what if I’m oversexed?
Roidy
Well I know a sj in LA where you can get FS
Society overtrusted me not to do really stupid things. They need to pay for any failure of mine.
You are a victim. It’s not your fault. My heart goes out to you.
You know, I so would not care if a greedy debtor and a sleazy lender got together to make sweet, sweet music. What absolutely galls me is their ability to make me pay for their malfeasance.
I thank the politicians for that one.
OTOH, the way the debt collection is outsourced virtually guarantees abusive practices by collectors.
There should be a warning.
SURGEON GENERAL’S WARNING: Buying a House you Can`t Afford Causes Lung Cancer, Heart Disease, Emphysema, And May Complicate Pregnancy.
SURGEON GENERAL’S WARNING: Not Buying a House Now Greatly Reduces Risk Of Relentless Harassing Phone Calls That Will Intentionally Inflict Emotional Distress.
SURGEON GENERAL’S WARNING: Buying a House prevents “bitter-renter” syndrome.
I would rather be a “bitter-renter” than have a debt collector call me names and belittle me saying that I was worthless and a low life for not paying my debt. While my only defence was I was OVER loaned, I was OVER loaned! Not to mention Lung Cancer, Heart Disease and Emphysema.
“The Man” lent me too much money. My civil rights have been violated.
In sum: “It’s the other guy’s responsibility!”
actually, if he wants to get it back, it is his responsibility!
The WSJ recently had an article describing how languages influence thinking, and the term “over loaned’ serves as a good example.
If the person said he “over borowed” then he is assuming responsibiblty for his own actions. But when he uses the term “over loaned” then he is putting responsibility for his money troubles onto the lender and thus gets to enjoy victim status.
I’m tired of beating around the bush and nipping at the edges of deciding who’s at fault.
On the side of the banks: Many greedy FB’s got drunk on too much HGTV, flipping, not reading contracts, buying multiple homes, cashing in on tax breaks originally designed for responsible people, HELOCing to death, buying Escalades, and then pretending to be victims.
On the side of the FB’s: Many FB’s just wanted to buy a house. Greedy banks violated good faith and sold risk right up the Fannie/Freddie just for their yearly bonuses, trashing 60 years of trust and confidence in the process. Then the FB’s lost their jobs through little fault of their own and can’t make any payment. FB’s who want to refinance in good faith are being given the run-around while banks use government money to continue the gamble-and-party lifestyle.
As a rough guess, I would say that for first-time mortgages, the fault is 1/3 FB, 2/3 bank. For second mortgages of any stripe (second home, refi, trade-up) the fault is 2/3 FB, 1/3 bank. For Casey-types, it’s 90% FB. Job loss and medical, I don’t know.
There’s more than one flavor of foreclosure, despite what the MSM likes to report. And at some point, somebody’s going to have to separate this nebulous mess into, say, a couple dozen general types of FB situations and for each one make a decision as to who’s at fault and what would be a fair outcome. Sort of streamline the case-by-case BK situation into stardardized options. Then lay it on the line and tell people who they are, what would be the fairest option for them, and *#($&% get on with the process of ending the situation one way or another.
Of course, no politician will ever attempt it. They would immediately lost about 2/3 of their votes.
Reporter: “Sir. Did you say if you found your army between the Germans and the Russians, you’d attack in both directions?”
Patton: “Naw, I never said that. I never said any such thing. But I wish I had.”
Guilty? Not really an either/or question is it? Idiot loans have idiots on both* sides of the table. Some of them might be lying, scheming idiots who though that they were getting away with something, and some might garden variety dumb@sses, but they’re all idiots. And make no mistake, people are being punished for idiocy, not evil. The sad thing is the degree to which many others have been roped along for the ride.
*Of course with the securitization process, what you really have is idiots all the way down.
“what you really have is idiots all the way down.”
Very clever, young man—but it’s turtles all the way down!
(One of my favorite quotes…)
Well that IS the quote I was alluding to…
“Well that IS the quote I was alluding to…”
And I like your variant A LOT, Jim!
the fault is 1/3 FB, 2/3 bank……………….
I disagree with your analysis completely. I believe it is ALL the buyer’s fault. 100%.
you give excuse like lack of job, or unemployment. I am unemployed and I am not facing eviction. The truth is plain to me.
People are responsible for their own financial affairs, and determining just how much in debt they think they can be. IF they are too stupid, that’s too bad.
NO ONE should be buying a house with a one percent teaser loan, knowing the rates would reset in 6 month to 2 years, and their “plan” is to liquidate before it’s too late.
I don’t want banks to decide for me what i can “afford”. Circumstances change, and i have had many opportunities to get in on some really big deals, but could not because i couldn’t get finance. If i was willing to take on the debt, then I want the banks to lend.
Additionally, if you don’t have AT LEAST 6 months savings in the bank, you have no business buying a long-term “investment” that costs a fixed amount of money every month, or is slated to increase.
BUYERS set the price. Buyers are the market. Stupid buyers set this market, aided by Realtors with tall tales and foolish lending speculation. But, it was the buyer that took on the debt.
ALL of them, just like me, could have said. NO! That price is TOO High. I can’t and won’t afford it! I won’t buy at that price!! period.
They caught the mania and bought a pig in a poke. Sorry.
Time to pay the piper.
So who held the gun to the loan officers heads and made them approve the bad loans?
I just finished reading Charles Gasparino’s book, The Sellout. In more than one section, there are descriptions of how loan officers were pressured to approve mortgages for people who had no business getting one.
And why the pressure? How about a one-word answer: Securitization.
With regards from your HBB Librarian…
Exactly. But it wasn’t the borrower. That was the point I was trying to make.
It wasn’t the borrower.
They are going to overgovern all of us.
“First time I have seen this “they OVER loaned me” comment”
Really? You just haven’t been watching very closely. I’ve seen this and similar comments going on for about 3 years now. The first I saw was an “investor” in Las Vegas when it started crashing and that was the deadbeats defense for walking away from all his obligations. He had bought several houses in the 700-800k range, that were quite popular for flipping in 04 and 05.
He said that the bank should have known he couldn’t make the payments, even though he claimed a higher income, and therefore, it was all the banks fault for lending him more than he could pay.
I’ve heard this over and over. “The BANK should have known not to lend me so much money. They know better than me what i can afford. I just can’t make the payments. they don’t deserve to get another dime form me.”………….blah, blah, blah.
Yes, grown adults blaming others for mismanaging their financial affairs.
He said that the bank should have known he couldn’t make the payments, even though he claimed a higher income, and therefore, it was all the banks fault for lending him more than he could pay.
Actually, the banks knew that these people could never make the payments. But, since they weren’t carrying the loans on their books, they didn’t give a hoot.
They were selling ‘em off to the Securitization Machine, and dang, that money was good. Until it wasn’t.
Exactly.
The banks should’ve paid the full price of their greed and hubris and been allowed to fail. Thank you, Republicrats.
someone had to bail China out.
Actually, the banks knew that these people could never make the payments. But, since they weren’t carrying the loans on their books, they didn’t give a hoot.
They were selling ‘em off to the Securitization Machine, and dang, that money was good. Until it wasn’t.
Exactly. It was malice and forethought all the way.
The lenders knew EXACTLY what they were doing. From their point of view they would flip the house themselves when the FB defaulted and do it again on the next default. And again. And again. Raking in fees each time and packaging the each mortgage as new into the CDOs.
NOBODY HELD A GUN TO THE HEAD OF THE LOAN OFFICERS TO APPROVE THE LOANS. At the very least, to say they were not at fault is too say they were too incompetent to BE loan officers. What moron makes a loan without doing a credit and background check? One who thinks he’s scamming the borrowers, that’s who.
“The BANK should have known not to lend me so much money. They know better than me what i can afford.”
And why shouldn’t this FB say somthing like that? Banks had been doing precisely this right up until about 2001. Banks said the FB could afford it. And, since banks had been calculating what the FB could afford since the Depression, the FB believed the banks. Do you blame them? Never mind that only recently did banks begin selling risk up the food chain and the middle class down the river just for a few pieces of silver today.
YO, this is what I mean when I say the bank violated good faith.
Now granted, this guy was an investor, and he deserves to be reamed. But would you be so harsh on the FB if it was a first-time buyer who didn’t know the ropes, and then, say, lost his job? (in my comment above, I only let first-time buyers off the hood.)
Clipped from MaxKieser.com
“Fantastic piece from Ambrose Evans Pritchard today, The Death of Paper Money. He offers a few terrifying quotes from a book about when hyperinflation hit suddenly in Weimar Germany”:
“Corruption became rampant. People were stripped of their coat and shoes at knife-point on the street. The winners were those who — by luck or design — had borrowed heavily from banks to buy hard assets, or industrial conglomerates that had issued debentures. There was a great transfer of wealth from saver to debtor, though the Reichstag later passed a law linking old contracts to the gold price. Creditors clawed back something”.
“At the moment, we are all waiting nervously as the over trillion in new money supply just sits there on the banks balance sheet. In the UK, they are now ordering banks to begin circulating that money in a manner not to dissimilar to the knife-point hold ups on the streets of Germany”.
“When velocity returns, good luck to one and all”.
That was a terrifying read. Too bad they’re selling on Ebay for $699/copy (with free shipping!)
I’ve never felt that Ambrose EP was a shill for the mellow yellow but this was the most persuasive argument for that investment I’ve heard to date.
I thought he was shilling for knives. You know, to rob people of their coats and shoes come the Apocalypse.
If/when velocity returns it won’t return evenly; some people will get hold of some of this stored-up money, some won’t.
The ones that get the money will still get to call the shots.
Stands to reason the elites are already plotting the transfer.
No. “Plotted.” It was decided years ago.
Yep.
By the same token that’s why broad measures of inflation/deflation are so misleading. All they do is average out the actual money creation/flow across all sectors - they don’t show how each sector varies (which is a lot), or even how components and participants within each sector vary.
I yet have to see this mythical “deflation.”
Here you go
Quite remarkable in the 2007-2009 timeframe, wouldn’t you say?
Also IMO quite remarkable how suddenly it stopped dead in it’s tracks. Housing PPT in action.
Exactly. If FBs think they’re going to come out of this ahead because of inflation, they oughta think again!
Is it any coincidence that stories of a vanishing middle class are surfacing left and right at just such a time when these FBs are caught in a royal pinch?
Wages - stagnant, down for many. Chief asset price (houses) down. Gasoline, food, education, and meds - up.
Sucks to be an FB today, and it will still suck tomorrow.
It definitely looks like the Fed has taken the path of allowing bad debt to default, then cleaning it up so the banks and investors don’t lose.
Overall, a massive scam on the middle class. Suck everyone with worthless printed money and then close the trap.
I really doubt most were smart enough to see this coming, and I doubt those at the top were stupid enough not to. Conspiracy? Who knows, but it is easy to see the impact of deflating dollars trying to make increasingly difficult debt payments. We are not out of the forest yet on this one!
Conspiracy? You better believe it.
There is collusion at the highest levels on everything.
Every heard of the Business Roundtable? Here’s a quote from “Gangs of America”
The most important development came in 1972, when Frederick Borch of General Electric and John Harper of Alcoa spearheaded the formation of the Business Roundtable, an organization made up exclusively of CEOs from the top 200 financial, industrial, and service corporations. Because of the composition of its membership, the Roundtable occupied a position of unique prestige and leverage. It functioned as a sort of Senate for the corporate elite, allowing big business as a whole to set priorities and deploy its resources in a more effective way than ever before.
It’s been going on long before Obama or Bush.
Interesting info, though the Bilderberg Group and CFR have been around far longer, and have deeper and far-reaching international and political roots. IMO they’re way more dangerous and moreso the rotten root of the corruption/influence problem.
Gasoline flat here. Food down slightly. I buy the groceries and keep the receipts so I am pretty confident in saying that.
Gas flat, but food up and selection becoming less.
Needless to say, utilities are NOT going down and oddly, apt rents are flat.
“When velocity returns, good luck to one and all”.
That’s a chilling thought. Too late to grab some physical gold at this point?
Gold bugs tell the best disaster stories!
Yes, and i may consider selling you some of my stores for the inflated prices that are the current market, possible for some of the gold. But, i can’t eat gold, and i can’t drive it, and it won’t pay the electric bill, and i need basic things to live each day.
I may trade some of the diesel i have stored in my tanks for some tomatoes and some bread. What do you have besides that yellow metal, mister?? I need some heating oil. Can you get me some of that for few of those coins.
You tell me they are worth $1200 each. Well, i’ll give you 3 gallons of fuel oil for 3 of those coins. I already burned all the paper money.
I may trade some of the diesel i have stored in my tanks for some tomatoes and some bread. What do you have besides that yellow metal, mister??
A cocked double barrel shotgun?
Wait until Congress slaps a 50% windfall profit tax on gold transactions. Gotta pay for health care for our ACORN cadres, you know.
LOOK OUT! IT’S THE BOOGEYMAN! RUN! RUN!
German hyperinflation fascinates me. Prior to the hyperinflation, Germany’s had beautiful notes, some even printed on silk. As time went on, the came in ever larger denominations, and were more cheaply made. Somewhere in my collection I have a 5,000,000,000 (thats right 9 zeros) note. Very cheap paper. They didn’t even bother to print the back side of the note.
It was so bad that there was one year, where not a single life insurance policy was tendered. Wasn’t worth the stamp to claim it.
It eventually became so cheap that it was used for wallpaper.
Seriously.
The wonders of socialized medicine continue. Some of the new details coming from the UK’s NHS (govt run health system acronym) restructuring to save money.
- Restrictions on some of the most basic and common operations, including hip and knee replacements, cataract surgery and orthodontic procedures.
-Plans to cut hundreds of thousands of pounds from budgets for the terminally ill, with dying cancer patients to be told to manage their own symptoms if their condition worsens at evenings or weekends.
- The closure of nursing homes for the elderly.
- A reduction in acute hospital beds, including those for the mentally ill, with targets to discourage GPs from sending patients to hospitals and reduce the number of people using accident and emergency departments.
_________________
And yet, 35-40% of the American public still wants the govt to run health care. Are these people stupid? Are they misinformed? Insane? Probably a little bit of each. This is the future with O-care. If you think you’ll need a hip replacement any time soon, better go see the doc. Because come 2014 you’re SOL.
What if taxpayers can’t afford to pay for hip and knee replacements of every boomer that is going to require one? Do we go into deeper debt to be “fair”?
Do we bankrupt our economy to keep the exploding number of elderly in their nursing homes? When did elder care stop being the family’s responsibility?
Just to be clear, I take Advil daily for hip pain. I’ll probably be a recipient some day. Being the only female in the next generation I’m sure the care of my in laws will fall to me. But I’m not sure why other taxpayers should be responsible for what is our situation. If we can’t afford medicine than perhaps something is wrong with the price of medicine, or what we expect is a “right” to good health, or the structure of how it is paid for. Dumping costs on taxpayers is just another way of kicking the can down the road and subsidizing the healthcare industry.
Back in my twenties and thirties, I did a lot of long distance bicycling. Great way to see the world, but as I grew older, my knees were talking to me in language that wasn’t very nice. Especially my left knee.
More than one suggestion for left knee surgery came my way. Not all of them came from doctors.
Fortunately, one doctor was honest enough to tell me that if I did have the surgery, my knee would never be as good as it was before. So, armed with that info, I decided against any sort of left knee surgery.
It was around this time that a friend, who’d also done a lot of long distance riding, said that his knees had forced him to cut back. He said that his knees felt a lot better after he did so.
Well, that was almost 20 years ago. I’m no longer a long distance rider, but boy, do I love my rides around town.
Moral of the story: Medical treatment isn’t always the answer. There’s a lot to be said for modifying one’s lifestyle.
There are a LOT of 60 - 70 year olds in the gym keeping their next surgeries at bay through circuit training. Their doctors or PT sent them and they report fantastic results.
Muscles (including the heart) tend to be “use ‘em or lose ‘em,” but joints tend to be “use ‘em ’till they’re used up.”
I think these are people who weren’t ex sports so you can build up the muscle to help support the weakened joint. It’s only meant to relieve some of the pain and stiffness in hopes of gaining more time until the inevitable. (Obviously I’m not the doctor but I’ve heard this theory quite a few times from different people so I think it’s an entrenched concept in this area.) I have quite a few PT student friends and w/some issues they’ve instructed me to get in and strength train to compensate. (rotator cuff, bursitis) I know in an absolute sense though you are correct.
My mother is 85 and has shoulder issues. She strengthens and stretches hoping she can postpone the inevitable until after the inevitable. It helps.
AZ Slim
From reading your posts over the years, I’d wager you would be a very interesting person to meet . . . and have as a friend.
All the best to you
Aqius
On the other hand I have a close friend who did have knee replacement and it gave him a complete new lease on life.
So would a windfall of a million dollars but I don’t see anyone handing envelopes out.
**************
“On the other hand I have a close friend who did have knee replacement and it gave him a complete new lease on life.”
Well, lets hope you never need it then.
When home prices made it unaffordable…and don’t forget zoning … my best friend had a house built in Yonkers and a big chunk of the down payment was from his moms sale of the old house , so they put in a “MIL” apartment in place of a huge family room on the ground floor split level…..and was sued by the city of Yonkers….
Mind you there was only 1 electric meter for the whole house
well they finally settled it (costing them thousands) by having to remove all appliances and return the place to a family room when they sell…more $$$$ and it has to pass inspection before they can close.
When did elder care stop being the family’s responsibility?
When did elder care stop being the family’s responsibility?
When it started becoming the responsibility of The State.
Are you not on board? Have you not been reading your documents?
When it started becoming the responsibility of The State.
It is? The last time I checked they didn’t pay jack for that. Retirement/nursing homes are super expensive and are usually paid for with the proceeds from the sale of grandma’s house.
The last time I checked they didn’t pay jack for that.
I take you’re not familiar with OASDI - Old-Age, Survivors, and Disability Insurance (known more commonly as Social Security)?
Or Medicare?
Or food stamps?
Various state welfare programs?
etc. etc.
Last I checked - they DO pack jack for that.
When did elder care stop being the family’s responsibility?
According to the Republicrat open borders and amnesty proponents, we need new immigrants to pay for the retiring boomers. Because every immigrant dreams of going to America and supporting a boomer or two well into their dotage.
I know a lot of people won’t like the sound of this but I remember when my friends’ grandmas’ bedrooms were in a room down the hall. No in law apt required.
I do agree w/you that zoning has not been supportive of families taking care of their own. Would you agree though that they are targeting income producing situations more than they’re against grandma moving in?
Yes Carrie…….but there are ways to make it so that income producing is minimized. Such as limiting the in-law apt to say 500-600 sq ft. Enough for a bedroom kitchen living area and not much else.
Since it is family they can use the basement and outdoor space.
Not many paying tenants would live like that outside a big city.
There’s a lot of scam MIL conversions though. The house across the street from me in San Jose was owned by an absentee landlord who converted the garage into a “MIL apartment”. She rented out the house and the garage-apartment to two unrelated sets of tenants, which caused lots of problems in the neighborhood (e.g. no off-street parking).
When did elder care stop being the family’s responsibility?
When they could no longer afford it. But his country has ALWAYS treated its elderly with an utter and complete lack of compassion and respect.
You DO NOT want to be old and poor in this country.
Eco:
We terrorize old people by keeping them alive for years in nursing homes one step ahead of death…..instead of being compassionate and doping them to die peacefully amongst family.
Yet if Charlie Mason was going to throw a wad of poop at a Prison guard and the guard just grabbed his arm, all hell would break loose from the ACLU.
wacky aint it?
I haven’t met too many old people who want to die.
ever been into a nursing home….Ill bet if given a chance they would go and stop the suffering and make it easier on the kids.
I mean being carried to a toilet and having someone wipe your butt is not what i call a life…at least not for me
So where are the demonstrations in Europe, Japan, Canada and elsewhere demanding that the public health systems be disbanded and replaced with a byzantine private system like ours?
That said, demographics will pose a formidable challenge to either approach (public vs. private) as populations continue to age and expenditures per patient surge. We are going to have to change our expectations regarding the type of care we receive when we become older, especially regarding “heroic” efforts to keep the terminally ill alive for a few extra months. Some will scream about “death panels”, but if there is no money, there is no money. Regardless of which we we end up going, heathcare is going to be rationed.
That’s a ridiculous argument. Where are the demonstrations here demanding government taker-over of the private systems?? There haven’t been any.
The only demonstrations I saw were people trying to stop it, but most have jobs and don’t really have time for a good-ol demonstration.
They are stuck, like we will be stuck and that’s why the democrats rammed this crap onto the legislative books. It is MUCH harder to UNDO crappy legislation than to stop it. It almost never happens because too many people have a vested interest in continuing the current government program. Once the government gets in, they rarely get out.
The only demonstrations I saw were people trying to stop it,
I know, and most of those “patriots” were overfed, fat, elder medicare parasites with a “give me my free lunch” sense of entitlement.
Well of course! They were afraid that their Medicare entitlement might get watered down a bit so middle class kids could go to the doctor and maybe get their shots.
Our national motto should be changed to:
“I got mine, F you.”
Our national motto should be changed to:
“I got mine, F you.”
***********
Ain’t that the truth!
No. “It’s F you, I got mine!”
That’s a ridiculous argument. Where are the demonstrations here demanding government taker-over of the private systems??
I have seen groups of people here on street corners carrying signs demanding a single payor system.
Last summer, I was in several demonstrations in favor of the public option. Moveon.org and Organizing for America were behind them. Matter of fact, at one demo, I spoke on behalf of all of us self employed with crappy health insurance.
Now, a year later, I can’t help but think that we demonstrators were being played for fools. After all, the public option was discarded early on — the MSM has covered this extensively.
I don’t see where a bankrupt govt cutting back on health care is much worse than a morally bankrupt private insurance system denying treatment.
Personally, I’d like to see a national health insurance program that’s based on what has been proven to work.
Sorry to say, but a lot of our current health care is based on little more than folklore (”We do a lot of Caesarians around here, and that’s the way it’s always been!”), what insurance companies cover (and they cover A LOT of unneeded procedures), and drug company marketing efforts (and they don’t spend all that money on marketing just for the heckuvit).
Prescription drug advertising (except to doctors in medical journals) should be immediately outlawed. Also, pharma sales rep junkets/giveaways should also be banned.
I used to work in a high end restaurant where the pharma girls (always good looking women) would bring the doctors for a “working lunch”. Usually 5-10 people at the table; almost always the doctors would start knocking back “The most expensive Scotch you’ve got” as soon as they sat down. A 10 person lunch would easily top 1500 bucks..
All I could think was; outside the door (of the resturaunt) there are 100s of people who can’t afford their medicine today because of these a**holes sitting here sucking down some single malt or JW Blue. It made me sick.
These activities (along with all print and TV advertising) being banned would save the pharma companies a TON of money; allowing the prices for all these drugs to come down significantly. It’s criminal that we haven’t taken these actions already.
All I could think was; outside the door (of the resturaunt) there are 100s of people who can’t afford their medicine today because of these a**holes sitting here sucking down some single malt or JW Blue. It made me sick.
What are ya, some kind of commie?
We have the “best healthcare system in the world.” Fox news says so, so it has to be true. Those people without healthcare are losers. It’s their own fault for not having above average intelligence or a pedigree from a big name school.
USA! USA! USA!
Slim:
I’d eliminate 95% of breast reductions paid by insurance. If you want it paid by insurance you had better be really really huge. not just a measly DD.
I had to foot the entire bill for my third penis reduction.
why didn’t you just paint it white?
I’ve got all kinds of health insurance. It’s expensive only pays about a third of the treatment I require. Doing the math, I’m considering dropping the insurance, I might be better off.
On the other hand, I’m not sure why people complain about drug prices. Most common drugs can be had Walmart for $4.00.
If your meds are anything that is relatively new (say under 10 years) it will cost a LOT more than $4.
If your insurance only pays for 1/3 of your treatments you are underinsured (and you have plenty of company).
Last year I had my gall bladder removed. As I was being wheeled into the OR the last thing on my mind was “how am I going to pay for this?” Lucky for me I have pretty decent insurance.
A elderly realtor friend of ours had to drop her private insurance because she couldn’t afford it (no house sales). About 2 years later her knees hurt so much that needed to have them replaced. To make a long story short, she qualified for some sort of state program that paid for her surgery. The real kicker is: she’s opposed to a single payer program, just like all those Teabaggers on Medicare. I guess its OK for THEM to get gov’t money.
In fact Great Britain’s health care system does need reform.
But they really don’t spend much money on it and their stats are not that bad when considering the cost.
USA: Coverage: 82% of people under 65; 100% of people 65 or over
Great Britain: Coverage: Universal coverage.
USA life expectancy: 78
Great Britain life expectancy: 79
USA health care spending per person: $6,400
Great Britain health care spending per person: $2,700
USA Health spending as part of GDP: 15.3%
Great Britain Health spending as part of GDP: 8.3%
The English system can be called pure socialized medicine because the Government pays the doctors, owns the hospitals etc. It is the only major country that does this. I don’t think Britain’s pure socialized health-care system is the best system for health-care delivery.
In contrast, Canada’s system does not operate like England’s. Canada’s system is more like socialized health insurance instead of socialized medicine and Canada’s system is superior to England’s and America’s in most measurements especially for money spent. In Canada the Doctors are in private practice and the hospitals are private.
Canada’s system is known as a single payer system, where basic services are provided by private doctors (since 2002 they have been allowed to incorporate), …wiki
Here’s a good site that compares the US health care system with other countries. Check out the costs per person and the stats. USA’s cost/result ratio is absurd.
http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=110997469
I think the statistics are really misleading. Life expectancy is more a matter of lifestyle and genetics than “healthcare”. Most of the high dollar expenditures happen in the last few years of life, due to extreme measures taken to prolong life.
Just comparing dollars spent has no comparison to “quality of life”, which i daresay is difficult to measure.
It is clear the US spends a lot more than Britain, but Britain doesn’t have tort lawyers with unlimited fees. I read a comparison with what the HIGHEST payment ever in Britain was for a tort case, and it was about a million pounds. That’s everywhere here.
TORT REFORM should be the highest priority. That would eliminate thousands of needless procedures. But people really do want the big payoff when grandman dies in a hospital at 92. should could have lived much longer if the doctor had given her and injection before her heart stopped.
And insurance reform should have been a high priority. But none of this was done, just as Fannie and Freddie didn’t get the boot in the “financial reform” bill.
It’s all in who’s getting the benefits of the status quo.
If the medical system really wanted tort reform perhaps they should consider a system for outing & eliminating their bad seeds first.
Sorry, but that just makes too much sense.
What are you, some kind of socialeest/commie? The “market” should decide if those people should be out of job! Oh wait, the market did decide.
With lawsuits.
It is clear the US spends a lot more than Britain,
Yes and I just thought of something else. USA spends $6,400 and England $2,400 per person on health care. That’s converted and measured in US dollars BUT the US dollar does not go far in England.
A Big Mac is twice the price in US dollars in England. Hotels, dining, shopping, rent-a cars and fine company are all more expensive in England for Americans spending US dollars. So for them to only be spending $2,400 US DOLLARS per person in a country where dollars don’t go far makes me realize even more how bad of a deal we get in the USA for $6,400 dollars each.
When we use the currency value analogy based on how far our dollar goes in England for almost everything else then maybe England is getting decent results for 25 cents on the dollar compared to America and with 100% of the people covered. What the heck?
This comparative currency value analogy as applied to health care delivery can also apply to Switzerland, France, Japan, Germany and many other countries where the US dollar DOES NOT GO FAR FOR ANYTHING ELSE BUT HEALTHCARE. WHY? BECAUSE THEY DELIVER HEALTHCARE VERY EFFICIENTLY AND CHEAPLY AND WAY MORE EFFICIENTLY THAN THEY DELIVER BIG MACS. We’re getting royally ripped off.
And yes we need serious tort reform badly too but that is not the main issue here.
“We” are being ripped off in every, single aspect of our lives.
‘Cuz capitalism iz gude!
But then again, when your customers are complete morons…
“‘Cuz capitalism iz gude!”
Capitalism is good. Capitalism pays my salary, keeps a roof over my head and food on the table. Capitalism is the only system we can have if we are to keep our inalienable rights to life, liberty and the pursuit of happiness.
Capitalism did not create our current mess, it was the incestual relationship between law makers, lawyers, regulators and financial institutions. It can be argued that Capitalism creates an environment where this type of abuse could take place. Capitalism requires that most act ethically in their pursuits and that our government is populated with true public servants, not hacks looking to line their pockets and bankrupt the nation.
Capitalism is not perfect, there are winners and losers, we used to help some of the temporary “losers” in our own communities until they could help themselves. When we made that the government’s job, we gave up a slice of freedom. Look at us now, just begging to be put back into serfdom…Pathetic.
Any other “ism” requires central control; we have those types of governments all over the world. Most have proven to be abject failures and leave a legacy of death, destruction and genocide. Why the rush to bring tyranny to this nation? I really don’t understand the motivation behind the progressive/anti-capitalist movement.
USA health care spending per person: $6,400
Great Britain health care spending per person: $2,700
If this isn’t proof that our system flat out doesn’t work and is broken, then I don’t what is.
You do know that many people never let facts get in their way, right?
In Canada most hospitals are publicly owned. I don’t know where you got your facts. In New Brunswick, for example, they are run by Regional Health Authorities, which are funded by the government. Virtually all hospitals still in use were built by the government.
Also England does have doctors that are outside of the NHS I believe.
In Canada most hospitals are publicly owned……Virtually all hospitals still in use were built by the government.
It’s reads more complicated than that.
Canada uses a mix of public and private organizations to deliver health care; in turn, these organizations bill the provincial health authorities, with few exceptions.[4] Hospitals are largely non-profit organizations, historically often linked to religious or charitable organizations. In some provinces, individual hospital boards have been eliminated and combined into quasi-private regional health authorities, subject to varying degrees of provincial control. Laboratory services are often delivered by for-profit investor-owned corporations.
With rare exceptions, medical doctors are small for-profit independent businesses. Historically, they have practiced in small solo or group practices and billed the medicare system on a fee for service basis. wiki
In Canada most hospitals are publicly owned. I don’t know where you got your facts.
Some of my facts I got from the Library of the Canadian Parliament:
http://www2.parl.gc.ca/Content/LOP/ResearchPublications/prb0552-e.htm
And while most people think of hospital services as being publicly delivered because they are funded and governed publicly, and are accountable to the public, hospital services in many provinces are in fact delivered to a great extent by private not-for-profit organizations.
The (provincial) government funds a variety of health services through its provincial health care insurance plan, but the services insured under the plan are delivered mostly by a mix of private not-for-profit and private for-profit (individual or institutional) providers. For example, most family physicians in primary health care settings receive public funding, but they are private providers who are not employed by the government. In fact, physicians� offices are often categorized as small business entrepreneurs
Recent Past Headlines:
Poll Finds Most Doctors Support Public Option : NPR
Most in U.S. want public health option: poll | Reuters
Poll: Most Back Public Health Care Option - CBS News
Big Majority of Doctors Want Public Health Option! - Associated
WaPo Poll: Majority Wants Public Option More Than Bipartisanship …
Without Public Option, Enthusiasm for Health Care Reform, Especially Among Democrats, Collapses Rasmussen Reports
Overwhelming Majority Of Americans Want Public Option Alan.com
Another Poll Shows Majority Support for Single-Payer – Healthcare-NOW!
Poll: Majority of Iowans favor public insurance option IowaIndepentent
New Poll: 77 Percent Support “Choice” Of Public Option
Six in ten Americans support public option: poll | Raw Story
Most support public option for health insurance, poll finds . WashPost
Polls show that most people voted for Obama.
There’s what you want, and there’s what you get.
Polls show that most people voted for Obama.
There’s what you want, and there’s what you get.
Those who voted for Obama did not get the public option promised, wanted and needed.
Those who voted for Obama did not get the public option promised, wanted and needed.
The public option was one of the main reasons why I:
a. Voted for Obama in 2008.
b. Got so steamed at him when the final bill didn’t include it. And I’m still steamed.
Slim, you are kidding right? That is all you have a problem with. Didn’t he promise something about bringing home soldiers? …and a bunch of other lies.
Rio:
What we can do right now is give proper Dental care to Americans.
If we are a service economy then you are dealing with people and those with good teeth will get hired first.
That never seems to get discussed in anything i’ve ever read.
Because for some alternate, bizarro, universe reason, we seem to think teeth are not part of the human body nor have any medical or health importance.
That alone, is all the proof I need of how barbaric we are.
Oh shut up. I’m tired of people with their sense of entitlement (i’m rich, i have job security, i work for the gov.) and selfishness.
Just try and walk a mile in other people’s shoes sometime, if you actually possess an imagination to do that.
The ONE thing that could have gone a long way to making us a civilized nation is affordable healthcare for all.
uhh We already have a “civilized nation”. Take me to a town in this country where you can’t walk into some random establishment, and basically have clean potable drinking water, a flush toilet, and a garbage service that comes and removes disease causing refuse. Then, remind me about the condition of the paved road we drove there on in whatever vehicle we took, whether it be a public transportation vehicle, or private car. Then we can go down to the grocery store and get fresh produce of just about any type possible that has been probably shipped in from some other entire country.
I doubt there will be a dirt floor in any of these establishments, and 60HZ 120V AC electricity is almost guaranteed to be flowing in the walls. None of these things is a “right” guaranteed to us as citizens, or provided by the gov’t, and yet they are things that most (no, not all) of us do have. Those things you take for granted. It’s the things you don’t have, the I want, I want, I want, of healthcare and finance reform that you focus on. Guess what, it might be nice to get hungry kids in America food before we start demanding that the gov’t pay for our healthcare. Lots of people including me want the choice to give our money to those hungry kids instead of to Ben Bernanke to hand out for bank rescues. Oh healthcare you said, oh, pardon me says I, I forgot that that’s what SDI, medicare, medical, SSI, and the like were about that all got looted to pay for other “budgetary concerns”.
Pardon me if I like choosing my own charities. I know your intentions to “help” with my money are well intentioned, I just don’t think they are well thought out.
clean potable drinking water, a flush toilet, and a garbage service that comes and removes disease causing refuse….the paved road we drove there on in whatever vehicle we took,
I’ve had enough of these socialist, utopian dreams.
………:-)
And this is exactly what I mean. Because you are sitting pretty, you don’t give a damn about anyone else. Yet you moan and wail about business’s offshoring jobs.
I, on the other hand, truly do not care if my taxes are raised if it means medical coverage for all.
I, on the other hand, truly do not care if my taxes are raised if it means medical coverage for all.
why don’t you simply donate that money, then, rather than vote to spend MY MONEY on it as well?
Because I work hard for that money and I *do* care
Because what you don’t understand is that you have a responsibility to the society you prosper in and from. You DO NOT exist in a vacuum. You cannot just take and not give back. You DID NOT create the conditions that allow you to prosper. It took a huge amount of resources and labor to create that.
So unless you built the roads, utilities, internet, and invented everything else that makes modern life possible, YOU are not the center of the universe. And those thing WILL NOT stay cohesive if other people are denied the basics in life.
Marie Antoinette didn’t understand this either.
You DID NOT create the conditions that allow you to prosper. It took a huge amount of resources and labor to create that.
The quote of the day.
Been to NYC, mathguy? (obviously not)
In fact, those places exist in almost every city in this country. We call them “ghettos.” Maybe you’ve heard of them?
Every. City.
You should get out more often.
Eco…..I think even Ben would like this…
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zEHz4LOt5ik&feature=popular
+1
“And yet, 35-40% of the American public still wants the govt to run health care. Are these people stupid? ”
Quite the contrary. You can’t take a broad look at the “american public”, because you have to remember the half the people aren’t paying any taxes. They are the takers. They even get money back from the government, without putting any in, under that “earned income credit” tax fantasy.
Those in favor are figuring it will cost them LESS, and they will get more. Those like me, that are opposed, know I am going to get less service, by people i don’t want to deal with, at higher costs.
Some are insane, believing they have a “duty” to the poor and indigent, and that we all should bear the burden for their hip replacements and heart surgeries. As it currently stands, anyone can walk into an emergency room and get treatment for medical problems. They just want to be able to go for a cough and a cold and have the visit and the drugs for free, outside the health clinic.
+1E9
have to remember the half the people aren’t paying any taxes. They are the takers.
That is incorrect. The poor pay more as a percentage of their income in total tax than the rich.
State tax, local tax, sales, property tax, utility tax, payroll tax, medicare tax etc etc.
The super rich are the parasite, lazy “takers” who take take take and easily confuse you as to the real stuff going on.
If they have an infectious disease, they are a threat to me. I want them to get treatment. This is not altruistic.
Is the ER the most cost effective place to administer routine care or treat infectious disease?
What the numbers for your State?
80% of Calif. firms have no employees:
July 26th, 2010 by Jan Norman, small business columnist OC Register
California has about 3.43 million businesses but only about one in five has employees.
That’s one of the tidbits in the preliminary results from the nation’s twice-a-decade Economic Census of U.S. businesses that draw an interesting sketch of the state’s firms.
These data are collected by the Census Bureau, but the Small Business Administration’s Office of Advocacy makes the spreadsheets available on its web site.
The most maddening fact is that the Economic Census was in 2007. It’s always released years late but this time, three years is an eternity, given that the U.S. has since had one of the worst recessions in 60 years. But for what they’re worth, here are some results:
ALL FIRMS VS. EMPLOYERS
Roughly one out of five California businesses has employees, but that varies widely by the owner’s ethnicity:
* Almost 1 in 4 Asian-owned businesses has employees
* 1 in 16 black-owned businesses has employees
* California’s 3.43 million firms have a combined $3.8 trillion in sales, but 96% of that is in companies with employees.
MEN VS. WOMEN
For every two businesses owned by women, men own three. However, among companies with employees, male-owned businesses outnumber women-owned four to one.
ETHNIC BREAKDOWN
Of all businesses, owners self identify themselves as:
* 75.8% White nonHispanic
* 16.5% Hispanic
* 14.8% Asian
* 4.0% Black
* 1.3% American Indian/Alaska Eskimo
Wait a minute! That’s 112.4%. Well, as I said, owners self-identify their ethnicity and can name more than one. Given that California is such a melting pot, it’s may be more notable that it’s ONLY 112%.
NATIONAL NUMBERS
The United States has 27.1 million businesses, 5.8 million with 118.7 million employees. Their combined sales are $30.2 trillion.
One more note about the Economic Census: It takes a sample of 2.3 million businesses, unlike the every-10-years census of people that tries to count every one.
If they would let some of those Hispanics out of jail, maybe there would be more Hispanic business owners in California.
Submitted by: Tony Caputo
FBI STATS
With all the negative reports being printed in the news media here are the statistics they fail to report.
•83% of warrants for murder in Phoenix are for illegal aliens.
•86% of warrants for murder in Albuquerque are for illegal aliens.
•75% of those on the most wanted list in Los Angeles , Phoenix and Albuquerque are illegal aliens
•24.9% of all inmates in California detention centers are Mexican nationals
•40.1% of all inmates in Arizona detention centers are Mexican nationals
•48.2% of all inmates in New Mexico detention centers are Mexican nationals
•29% (630,000) convicted illegal alien felons fill our state and Federal prisons at a cost of $1.6 billion annually
•53% plus of all investigated burglaries reported in California, New Mexico, Nevada, Arizona and Texas are perpetrated by illegal aliens.
•50% plus of all gang members in Los Angeles are illegal aliens
•71% plus of all apprehended cars stolen in 2005 in Texas, New Mexico, Arizona, Nevada and California were stolen by Illegal aliens or ”transport coyotes”.
•47% of cited/stopped drivers in California have no license, no insurance and no registration for the vehicle. Of that 47%, 92% are illegal aliens.
•63% of cited/stopped drivers in Arizona have no license, no insurance and no registration for the vehicle. Of that 63%, 97% are illegal aliens
•66% of cited/stopped drivers in New Mexico have no license, no insurance and no registration for the vehicle. Of that 66% 98% are illegal aliens.
•380,000 plus “anchor babies” were born in the US to illegal alien parents in just one year, making 380,000 babies automatically US citizens (which is UN-Constitutional; illegal).
•97.2% of all costs incurred from those illegal births were paid by the American taxpayers.
“California has about 3.43 million businesses but only about one in five has employees.”
Employees — who needs ‘em?
I’ve had various businesses here over the last 20 years, and only once had a non-contracted employee. The paperwork and the tax expense made him a net loss. I suppose if I’d paid him barely enough to live on that would have made it pencil out, but escaping sick little relationships like that is why I stopped being an employee in the first place.
Oh, they have employees alright. Just the illegal variety.
Every time someone buys a piece of commercial real estate, they create a company. That company owns the piece of property and contracts out work to property managers, construction managers, leasing agents, etc.
That is a big source of companies with no employees. I’m sure there are examples in other industries as well.
National numbers look quite similar.
As I’ve said here before, I’m self-employed. And I’m guilty of owning one of those business that has no employees. (Bad Slim! You’re not creating jobs!)
In my field, web development, the work is project-based, and I build teams of subcontractors based on what’s required. When the project’s done, so is the team.
I’ve found that, with my good subs, I have to treat them even better than the average employee is treated. As in, reaching deep into my pockets to keep them paid promptly. Even if this means that I have to live like a monk around here until the client comes through with his/her payment, paying fast goes a long way with subs. I’m also quite generous with the compliments. That works wonders too.
Especially if I want them to work with me on other projects.
I have a sub-contracting buisness (building insulation) and a web based buisness as well.
It is hard to do construction without employees in California but I got rid of all the web employees last year. Much less paperwork and much lower costs.
“80% of Calif. firms have no employees:”
“California’s 3.43 million firms have a combined $3.8 trillion in sales, but 96% of that is in companies with employees.”
It looks like there are a lot of self-employed or wanna be self-employed, most of whom aren’t doing very much business or have sales that aren’t reported. Of course, if the state’s largest cash crop was legalized, that might change a bit.
What percent of “self employed” are realtors?
Ummm, the employees are under reported, I suspect, since worker’s comp. is exorbitant in California.
My wife was sick of her minivan. The kids finally got old enough so she could ditch it and get her new Mercedes.
Heard this at a get together this past weekend. After this he went on to bemoan that his wife’s name got more google hits than his does. She is spending her own money.
Not everyone is hurting or cutting back.
The reason it stuck in my head is that I noticed how many new Mercedes (and I do drool over their new wagon) seemed to appear during the cash for clunker programs. Most likely it was just that Mercedes salespeople were most softened to negotiations at the time of the program, but my point is what we’re seeing is a bifurcation not pain spread over every socio-economic group. For some people, this slowdown was kind of a windfall because suddently there were deals to be had.
Btw, the Mercedes driver in the above story is an administrator in the medical field.
“For some people, this slowdown was kind of a windfall because suddently there were deals to be had.”
Just imagine how good it has been for banksters with billions in bailout booty…
Yep, the Med feild is (usually !!) safe & employed during a downturn
“He” should be glad she’s got a “safe” jop in case he loses his !!
I wouldn’t get a Benz though, pretty much junk since the merger..
I may trade in my Lexy for that new Genesis…
field - feild
jop - job
case of the Mondays!!
Benz - Granite Envy
Our local (AZ) hospital’s OBGYN recently laid off staff. Seems a large portion of the business came from “foreign nationals”. I wonder if the state’s new SB1070 had anything to do with it.
Having a Mercedes should be a basic right in this country. The government should issue Mercedes-stamps to the underprivileged. Its only fair.
“My friends all have Porshes, I must make ammends.”
“Dialing for dollars is trying to find me…”
Those employed by the medical and higher education complexes appear to be riding out the recesssion/depression more or less unscathed. Sure, some docs are making a little less, especially if their practice is tilted toward cosmetic procedures, but overall people still go to the doctor when they get sick and that i snot likely to change soon. Universities still have a lock on people’s perception that it is impossible to advance w/o a degree (or three or four) so those 2 bubbles for now are the most resistant to the changes roiling the rest of the economy.
Sure, some docs are making a little less, especially if their practice is tilted toward cosmetic procedures, but overall people still go to the doctor when they get sick and that i snot likely to change soon.
Inconvenient truth: 85% of what a doctor does can also be done by a nurse. And at lower cost. So, look for a lot more of those standalone clinics in drug stores and other shopping places.
And docs know it too which explains why newly minted MDs want little or nothing to do with family and general practice. Simple matters like colds, flu, kids’ ear infections and the like will be handled by nurse practitioners (”Noctors” is a term we will hear more and more) and physician’s assistants in coming years.
Most students coming out of med school carry debt loads that can easily approach 150-200K, and it’s not easy to repay those loans (and live the doc lifestyle) with the salaries currently paid in family practice or peds.
Noctors sounds like a character in a Stephen King novel.
My baby applying to Med Schools as we speak (write!)
But the US Army will be payn’ his way - and he knows he has to Specialize - no more money being a GP anymore…
My brother became a doctor on the Army’s dime and spent over 20 years in the Army Medical Corps. He’s done well for himself over the years. While he was in the Army they paid him some sort of salary differential to make up the difference between an officer’s pay grade and the pay a physician could command in the private sector.
Of course, he was still a soldier and deployed with little notice to places with combat conditions. Imagine a M*A*S*H* hospital in the Saudi or Kuwaiti dessert and you get the picture.
Good luck to your son, Shelby.
An anestesiologist friend screwed up his ankle rock climbing just before the first gulf war which meant that he DIDN’T deploy on the USNS comfort.
Yep, ol’ Bubba
My oldest is on his way home from Iraq - finished up his 1 year stint, now he’s off to Captain’s school
My youngest knows what he is in for - he still thinks it’s better than owing 500K in student loans
He’ll have to serve 6-8 years, not 20
If he stays in their system (which sounds like what your Brother did!), it’s pretty sweet as well!
He can work for them, they’ll pay his malpractice insurance (a horrific expense for Dr’s) & office staff salaries etc…
Yah, but wait until you need that 15% to stay alive. Heh.
Convenient truth: Most of many things can be done by those less formally qualified than those who are certified to do those things. You are “paying” though for the skills when things get tough…
Let’s see…
Evildoc. Board Certified Internist with 15 years experience in acute care settings: ER Medicine at a 90k visit/year “Heart ER” and Hospitalist taking care of critical care patients, etc.
Recent case? Let us see…
Young vet from Iraq war just spent 9 months in military hospitals after being found down seizing in a military copter. Unexplained neuro condition and new seizure disorder at the time. Discharged to rehab then to home recently. No records available to us. Found at home by wife with multiple- essentially refractory- seizures
Arrived at our (civilian) ED (Emergency Dept) unresponsive, seizing, with 105 fever, unstable respiratory status, labs all awry.
Evildoc spent three hours at bedside. Chose antibiotics, coordinated spinal tap, intubated patient and managed vent settings, chose acute anti-seizure meds in patient failing outpt regimen (with full list not available upon his arrival), and coordinated emergent consult services.
Ahh, but evildoc is not a *sub* specialist (though hospital based medicine will be developing special certification soon). Collected for the hospital (evildoc does not received direct pay for work done as he is employee) $180 admission fee for three hours of expert work that might have some out there pooping in their pantaloons.
No doubt hiring a nurse or even a 22 year old “mortgage broker” would’ve been an acceptable substitution for evildoc. After all, the mortgage broker at her peak in 2006 billed far more for that there 3 hours work.
Nutrition for consideration, no doubt.
This would the other 15% mentioned in Arizona Slim’s post.
Thanks for the redundancy.
Thanks for your straw man.
That is not the other 15%. That is what is at risk all the time.
See ya in da hospital.
cheerio
but overall people still go to the doctor when they get sick and that is not likely to change soon
I’m not so sure about that. A coworker’s husband was having chest pains but didn’t go to the ER because of their $3000 deducible. So he “walked it off”. I know someone else who suffers from gallstones but hasn’t had his gall bladder removed. Again, a question of $$$ as he is uninsured.
And when I visit my GP, the parking lot at the practice is lot emptier that it was in years past. It also seems that most of my fellow patients are elderly and on medicare (again, another noticeable change in the past few years).
I have a plumber friend who did some for me over the weekend. He used to be self employed but business vanished when the building bubble out here popped (we went from 2000 new houses a year to 100). After many months he was able to get a job with a plumbing company. He says that pay is way lower than it was 5 years ago and he get zero benefits: no insurance and no paid time off. Needless to his family isn’t visiting the doctor these days (they use the nurse at Walgreens in a pinch, but even that’s pricey for them).
Granted, these are all anecdotes, but they do dovetail into the statitistics of the increasing number of Americans who are underinsured or uninsured.
I consider myself to be very, very lucky.
A couple of years ago, I had one of those bill-blowups at the dermatologist’s office. I had a mole removed. Bill in the exam room put the total at just under $100.
By the time I got to the front desk, they were demanding $250 to cover the bill and as a downpayment for What Could Come Next. Since I was awaiting reimbursement for airfare (to and from a family gathering) that I had put on my credit card, my plastic couldn’t cover that much.
So, I asked the front desk lady to bill me. After all, I’d been a patient for 16 years. And that’s 16 years of payments from me — no insurance companies involved.
The lady looked at me with a mixture of incredulity and contempt: “We DON’T bill.”
Well, after a bit of whining from me about how I was surprised about the amount of the bill, and how I hadn’t budgeted for it, Ms. Ice Princess relented. She took my card and ran it through several times before she found an amount that would “take.”
The next day, I got a call from the credit card issuer. They were questioning the multiple attempts to charge my card.
After the lab tests were added in, the total bill came to more than $400. I called the doctor’s office and told them that I could no longer afford them — they’d simply gotten too expensive.
The lady on the other end of the phone said that she’d tell the doctor that.
Apparently, she never did, because a year later, I got a letter than all but begged me to make an appointment. (I didn’t.) I might add that this practice had gone heavily into cosmetic work, and it didn’t take a genius to figure out that medical patients like me were no longer welcome.
These days, I patronize a physician assistant, and let me tell you, her office is VERY free of any sort of condescension toward those of us who aren’t toting megabucks to our appointments.
He says that pay is way lower than it was 5 years ago and he get zero benefits: no insurance and no paid time off. Needless to say his family isn’t visiting the doctor these days…
USA!…USA!…USA!
Me either. Have been without insurance for six months now. I’ve got a couple of medical issues that I should have looked at, but won’t, because:
-Can’t afford to pay for treatment, and
-Don’t want to go “on record” as having a pre-existing condition.
So, I’ll continue to pay my $300/month pill bill to Wally-World, and wait for my meds patent to expire.
Or croak, whichever comes first. Just call it “doing my part to help the recovery”.
Don’t want to go “on record” as having a pre-existing condition.
Years ago, I had an insurance policy canceled because the company conflated two things in medical records. Those two things had nothing to do with each other.
I had no right of appeal except to go to the Arizona Department of Insurance, which basically operated as a letter forwarder between my attorney and the insurance company.
Yet another one of many incidents which has led me to not trust health insurance companies further than I can swing a bull by the tail.
I haven’t been able to afford a doctor or insurance for almost 10 years. I fall in that perfect zone of not enough money to afford a doctor, but to much to qualify for gov programs or charity and most jobs no longer offer medical insurance without an insane deductible and copay, (then just what the hell am I paying for, dammit?!) if they offer it at all.
Needless to say, I’m not real fond of some people’s whining around here about the less fortunate.
Not universally true. Our company which does very well selling diagnostics cut from ‘growth’ to ’stasis’ in employee size and product offerings. Our products are still selling, but at a slightly retarded rate due to the recession, which retards or even fully stalls our growth. Our research continues, but without staffing up projects. We were supposed to have expanded into a third building and hired another 50+ employees. Instead we’re in a hiring freeze and allowing light attrition by not filling roles that we had staffed at the beginning of the freeze.
Cities View Homesteads as a Source of Income.
BEATRICE, Neb. — Give away land to make money?
The New York Times
It hardly sounds like a prudent scheme. But in a bit of déjà vu, that is exactly what this small Nebraska city aims to do.
Beatrice was a starting point for the Homestead Act of 1862, the federal law that handed land to pioneering farmers. Back then, the goal was to settle the West. The goal of Beatrice’s “Homestead Act of 2010,” is, in part, to replenish city coffers.
The calculus is simple, if counterintuitive: hand out city land now to ensure property tax revenues in the future.
“There are only so many ball fields a place can build,” Tobias J. Tempelmeyer, the city attorney, said the other day as he stared out at grassy lots, planted with lonely mailboxes, that the city is working to get rid of. “It really hurts having all this stuff off the tax rolls.”
Go Big Red!
Hey, that’s near where I bought my first home in Falls City.
$22,500 / 2 story 3 brdrm basement
VA loan @ 15. 5%
Great.
IMO one of the proper responsibilities of government is to have and hold public spaces - parks etc. It’s unfortunate that they’re proposing relinquishing this responsibility due to fiscal irresponsibility.
I really hope our national parks aren’t next.
Perhaps I’m being hyperbolic. I hope so.
It sounds as if the city isn’t ripping up parks, they’re just giving away land that’s already been slated for residential. This may not be a bad thing. Might be a good place for retirees to build a Katrina cottage, plant some tomatoes and live a low-level life. Just make sure that cottage has a basement. Neb is tornado alley.
The real ripping up of land already happened. Citrus orchards bulldozed for cookie-cutter homes. Coastal property eminent-domained for luxury condos. There was even talk of ripping up Civil War battlefields for strip malls in the name of Progress.
If this was land already slated for residential use, not sure why they’d write an article on it; since that’s the normal course of business anyhow. My take is that this is common land that wouldn’t otherwise be sold for residential; perhaps reserved as “open space” (the definition of which varies from area to area, state to state). Probably not technically parkland, though land that could (and often does) become park at some point; thus the person’s comments about “there are so many ballfields a place can build”. Of course ballfields is only one way of making something a park - you can also just keep it forested and maybe put in trails.
A lot of towns out here have been doing these givaway deals. Trying to get new blood into the community, since the average age of the residents is something like 50-60.
Of course, that doesn’t address the job situation…..
Exactly. Without a decent job, even “free” is unaffordable.
They are morons.
Uhm, parts of our national parks HAVE been sold or leased. It’s been going on for years.
Yes, you can google it.
Migrants sell up, flee Arizona ahead of crackdown.
PHOENIX, July 25 (Reuters) - Nicaraguan mother Lorena Aguilar hawks a television set and a few clothes on the baking sidewalk outside her west Phoenix apartment block.
A few paces up the street, her undocumented Mexican neighbor Wendi Villasenor touts a kitchen table, some chairs and a few dishes as her family scrambles to get out of Arizona ahead of a looming crackdown on illegal immigrants.
“Everyone is selling up the little they have and leaving,” said Villasenor, 31, who is headed for Pennsylvania. “We have no alternative. They have us cornered.”
The two women are among scores of illegal immigrant families across Phoenix hauling the contents of their homes into the yard this weekend as they rush to sell up and get out before the state law takes effect on Thursday.
The law, the toughest imposed by any U.S. state to curb illegal immigration, seeks to drive more than 400,000 undocumented day laborers, landscapers, house cleaners, chambermaids and other workers out of Arizona, which borders Mexico.
“Everyone is selling up the little they have and leaving,” said Villasenor, 31, who is headed for Pennsylvania. “We have no alternative. They have us cornered.”
How do the Amish feel about this?
So they’re still here which is why we need to adopt a strong national policy.
Upstate NY farms are known to use illegals. Everytime I see the pan handlers on Erie Blvd I’m wondering why no one will pick them up and bring them over to these farms. There’s no reason to sit idly by and watch expanding welfare rolls while illegals are working w/o incident.
That’s a big question that’s been going on for years. You would think that the government would take the welfare rolls, the low-paying job list, and make some forced marriages. Maybe the homeless are mentally ill, or unwilling to work the low wages, or they don’t want a paycheck because it will be garnished for child support.
The employers don’t want legal citizens, they can complain. They can sue. They have recourse.
You would think that the government would take the welfare rolls, the low-paying job list, and make some forced marriages.
You call them welfare rolls. Nancy Pelosi calls them supporters.
What exactly do you mean by expanding welfare rolls? I’m assuming you aren’t talking about collecting welfare, right?
Illegal labor will probably migrate to Pittsburgh and Philly and not affect the Amish, unless people start hiring illegal labor instead of the Amish for construction. But I don’t see that happening. Someone chasing the lowest price would probably not hire high-quality but expensive Amish anyway.
Amish are more threatened by their own fecundity. There is no longer enough land for (many) kids to buy and live on subsistence farming. Hence the quilt and furniture businesses, and the starting of new colonies in Ohio and Missouri.
The Amish and Mennonites are here too. Passed some of their farms when I used to travel to Walmart from the last abode. The locals were getting some pretty fine cabinets in their custom homes from the local Amish. An acquaintance I rarely see happy with much was very content w/the cabinets and the Amish work ethic.
The Amish and Mennonites are here too. Passed some of their farms when I used to travel to Walmart from the last abode. The locals were getting some pretty fine cabinets in their custom homes from the local Amish. An acquaintance I rarely see happy with much was very content w/the cabinets and the Amish work ethic.
My mom had a kitchen remodel done by a company that hired Amish workers. What a nice, hard working bunch of guys. Even our dog liked them, and she wasn’t the easiest dog to befriend.
Better yet, at the end of the day, they cleaned that kitchen until it was spotless. We were able to have our evening meal in it.
How do the Amish feel about this?
Ha, my Ohio/Nevada Amish cousins say : No problemo!:-)
Sounds like the AZ law is working.
I can’t think of a more compelling argument for adopting the policy nationwide than this article.
Interesting Spam today………what the heck is an INDIRECT Account Executive????….NRAE????
———————————-
From: Beau McGettigan
Sent: Monday, July 26, 2010 7:49 AM
Subject: Clear HIRING event! Today!!!!!
Congratulations on being selected as a potential candidate for our NRAE position in New York City. Below you will find the time and location where we will be conducting our interviews, we look forward to seeing you then!! Please bring a hard copy of your resume and your POSITIVE ENERGY!!
5-7 pm Wednesday Monday July 26th
Sheraton Brooklyn Hotel – Lower Level
228 Duffield Street
Brooklyn, New York 11201
Tel: 917.281.5193
If you cannot attend please contact me via phone or email to reschedule. Thanks!
Beau McGettigan | NYC
National Indirect Account Executive | clearw°re
Any job that’s asking for my positive energy is probably filled with the opposite kind of energy. Stay away, DJ!
Oh I will…but what is an Indirect Account Executive??
“Any job that’s asking for my positive energy is probably filled with the opposite kind of energy.”
Is that anything like interviews where they ask you about motivating employees or disciplining employees and you start to wonder if those questions are asked due to ongoing issues?
NRAE - non reimbursed account executive?
I reported yesterday of a house I’m watching in my Phoenix neighborhood coming down in price just last week. On further inspection I spotted one a few houses down that sold on the 13th for $118,000. It’s about a little over 1600 square feet. Get this: The selling price is just $1,000 over the 1997 price. This house has changed hands in 2000, 2004, and 2007 as well. In 2007 it sold for $270,000.
Someone just picked up a good deal at 1997 prices. It’s now the lowest sale price house in that neighborhood. The one i’m interested in is $225,000 and its 1997 sale price was around $149,0000. So there is room to fall further.
Wow a 13 year no gain on the house price! I’m not sure if one price drop makes the comps, but it can happen. It’s fun to watch those prices fall while my Series I savings bonds yield 4% to 5%!
Bill:
I just never understood why so many people still want to vastly overpay for an apartment. Even today these luzzurie condozes here in Long Island city You can buy for around $3000 per month with $50,000 down…and then the Mgt. will rent them to the public for $2250
Must be that they still think it’s some sort of status to have an apartment there?
I’d love to have a loft in Manhattan, actually! But It’s as pricey as Malibu and totally out of my league!
Here Bill the people i work for own this….
http://newyork.craigslist.org/mnh/reo/1863635500.html
http://www.nytalkradio.net
Funny that people would want to live in “luzzurie” condos in LIC. Went to high school there in the 70’s. Nuthin’ luxurious about it!
Luzzrurie all over the place…especially for all those faux rich Bear Stern types who just had to vastly overpay to get a great view of Manhattan
http://www.queenswest.com/
When we bought our home on the Cape, the people sold it for less than $10k more than what they paid for it 13 years earlier. They’d updated the kitchen, landscaped and put in some nice window treatments which they left for us. They had to pay the realtor her %age.
We sold 2.5 years later after the Greenspan credit spigot was opened for $75k more. If we’d waited even 6 mos we could have doubled that. For improvements, we put in a new slider and moved a bush.
Timing is everything.
A former coworker of mine in Syracuse used to track the first house she and her husband owned (outside Manlius, I think). She bought in ‘89 for $120k amount, sold 2 years later for about $150k, with no upgrades. The next owner had it 6 years, redid the septic and kitchen, sold for the same price. Next owner had it for a few years, sold for maybe $5k more than bought. The next owner had it for a only 1 year and sold it for something like $40k more than they paid for it, with no visible improvements.
So RE in Syracuse must blow hot or cold. Either it shoots up 20% over the course of 1-2 years, or it’s flat. (”flat” does not take into account all the maintenance once does to a CNY house.)
“Someone just picked up a good deal at 1997 prices.”
I don’t find that surprising. The condo I was in went up 600 percent from 1999 to 2005 and prices in the late 90’s were already going up due to the tech bubble. I don’t find pre-1999 prices, at least eventually, all that surprising, especially where there was an increase in supply. If illegals are moving out in sizable numbers, prices lower if not much lower than 1997 levels could be possible.
I suspect there might also have been a fair amount of wear and tear over 13 years. With such large price increases, how much was left over for maintenance and repair?
“a fair amount of wear and tear over 13 years”
One summer outing yielded this housing commentary: Their 15-20+ year old neighborhood wasn’t holding its value and it wasn’t unheard of to hear of $100k losses. That’s a lot when the median home price in the area is in the $200ks. The one thing about buying in the “hot new neighborhood” during a housing expansion is that when you go to sell a decade or so later it’s no longer the “hot new neighborhood”. That lost cache’ is costly.
I imagine more illegals rent SFHs than own them in Arizona. Regardless of where they’ve been living, there will be massive vacancies.
Apartment rentals will have increased vacancies. Rented houses will be empty, making a strain on the owner who needs to pay taxes and upkeep on them.
Some SFH rentals will probably come onto the market because of SB 1070.
So I think it will have some effect, on real estate, but not as much effect as other issues (resets, perpetual unemployment, the end of the 2001/2003 Bush tax cuts, no tax credits, the end of NINJA loans, and so on).
Goldman reveals where bailout cash went
Des Moines Register
Goldman Sachs sent $4.3 billion in federal tax money to 32 entities, including many overseas banks, hedge funds and pensions, according to information made public Friday night.
Goldman Sachs disclosed the list of companies to the Senate Finance Committee after a threat of subpoena from Sen. Chuck Grassley, R-Ia.
Asked the significance of the list, Grassley said, “I hope it’s as simple as taxpayers deserve to know what happened to their money.”
He added, “We thought originally we were bailing out AIG. Then later on … we learned that the money flowed through AIG to a few big banks, and now we know that the money went from these few big banks to dozens of financial institutions all around the world.”
Grassley said he was reserving judgment on the appropriateness of U.S. taxpayer money ending up overseas until he learns more about the 32 entities.
I’m sure Goldman was just acting in the best interest of the average american. I trust Goldman. I think everybody should just go ahead and give Goldman everything they have and just trust them to be fair with it. Its really the only way we can move ahead from here.
+1
Seriously though, anyone who makes it to the U.S. Senate should have known that bankers don’t recognize political boundaries. Nationalism is for the little people - and has been for quite some time.
I think for most bloggers, that statement is merely a confirmation.
Now do you see just how close to WW3 we may have come?
How often are bad looking data releases later revised to make them look much worse? And should we expect the same treatment for this month’s new home sales data?
Note that artificially overstating this month’s data release while revising downward last month’s is a good way to make something appear to increase, even if it didn’t.
Economic Report
July 26, 2010, 10:34 a.m. EDT
New-home sales rebound from record low in June
Better than expected gain still second lowest on record
By Greg Robb, MarketWatch
WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) — U.S. sales of new homes had a better-than-expected rebound in June after falling to record lows in May.
Sales rose 23.6% in June to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 330,000, the Commerce Department reported Monday.
New-home sales plummeted a revised 36.7% in May to a record low 267,000 level after a federal subsidy for home buyers expired. This is a steeper drop than first estimated. The government had initially put the decline as a 32.7% fall to 300,000.
…
“if you set your expectations low enough, no one will ever know you failed”
-Marge Simpson
If you set your expectations low enough, you will never fail.
- packman
If you are a good liar, you can spin any failure away.
One cannot fail when you have denial by your side.
Just like cash for clunkers.
1. Program brings sale forward only and slightly supports prices–no one buys a home (car) simply for the credit;
2. Program ends and immediately thereafter, number of sales plummet.
3. Sales quickly recover (over the next few months) to levels seen during the middle of the program (not there yet on housing, but got there quickly on cars).
The big issue with houses is that at current prices, it is not easy to create new supply of land. It is not economical to buy raw land, finish the lots, and build homes on them. As such, I anticipate home sales to continue to slide (as finished lot supply dwindles) until the foreclosure churn slows, and prices can rise to a level where it makes sense to finish land and build homes again.
“3. Sales quickly recover (over the next few months) to levels seen during the middle of the program (not there yet on housing, but got there quickly on cars).”
Not sure this works the same way for houses as for cars. Due to the huge leveraging effect that comes with low downpayment requirements on FHA loans (e.g. 3 percentish?), the ‘Cash for Shacks’ program presumably had a far greater effect on housing purchase budgets, and hence willingness to pay for houses, than did the Cash for Clunkers program on car purchase prices. Hence the amount of demand destruction due to the end of ‘Cash for Shacks’ would have been far greater, implying a much larger drop in budget-constrained willingness to pay (which constrains market values) for houses after the program expired, than the corresponding drop in willingness to pay for automobiles.
The other key difference between the post-stimulus situations for the housing and automotive industries:
So far as I am aware, there was not a huge bubble in automobile ownership, driven by a government-sponsored effort to turn all American households into automobile owner households, and exacerbated by an automotive building boom, a flood of investors buying multiple cars in the hopes of selling them later on to reap huge car equity gains and low income households able to use liar loans to buy Lexuses and Mercedes (unless they happened to be home equity loans), ARE YOU?
The above factors explain how the housing bubble (not the automotive bubble!) truly was different, resulting in a huge wave of malinvestment which will take years to unravel. The end of stimulus revealed a far uglier picture for housing than automotive, as automotive faces a struggle with temporarily slack demand due to the recession, while housing faces the added burden of adjusting to the afterlife of a collapsed bubble.
Click on the link in the CITB post below for a visual on the afterlife phase of a collapsed bubble!
Another way to look at the new home sales situation:
Peak level 2005-07-01 1389
Current level 2010-06-01 330
Peak-to-current percentage change in level
(330/1389-1)*100 = -76 percent
The graph I linked above suggests the latest recession ended a while back (see gray bars), but the National Bureau of Economic Research web site, not to mention the historically coincidental nature of troughs in new home sales figures with ongoing recession, tells a different story.
What gives?
Last Four Recessions and their Durations
12/07 - ?
3/01 - 11/01 8 months
7/90 - 3/91 8
7/81 - 11/82 16
Those have to be numbers for Wall St. because for J6P, the durations were measured in years.
So does that means this one will be measured in decades by J6P?
Note that no previous recession (at least back to the 1970s) ended before a trough in new home sales was reached.
Maybe this time is different?
An oldie but goodie…
Affordable Housing Ecosystems World Wide
Blasting Fannie Mae
May 24, 2006 | Uncategorized
[Interrupting a two-part post in light of breaking news.]
In the type of language normally reserved when giving the guilty the severest possible sentence, OFHEO has released a scalding 304-page report excoriating Fannie Mae up one side and down the other:
“The report details an arrogant and unethical corporate culture where Fannie Mae employees manipulated accounting and earnings to trigger bonuses for senior executives from 1998 to 2004.”
Fannie Mae (some of AHI’s previous coverage here) now looms as the biggest financial scandal since Enron — and with taxpayers’ dollars.
…
Along those lines -
Some musings on what Andrew Jackson would have to say about the GSE’s.
I would love to see that. Unfortunately these days a person like him would be labeled by the MSM as one of those “wacky bloggers” and not taken seriously.
Why is a crazy long-haired guy like Jackson on the $20 bill anyway? I want to see the face of a true financial hero like Chris Dodd on there - his perfect hair gives me confidence.
This depresssion is becoming a pain in the Fannie.
Yesterday, I had some errands to run. So, I hopped on the bike for a Sunday morning ride around Midtown Tucson.
During the course of my 14.3-mile jaunt, I spotted 45 houses with “for sale” signs. I was especially struck by the run-down appearance of a lot of these places. It’s as if the owners are just putting them on the market, hoping they’ll sell, but knowing that they won’t. Next stop: foreclosure.
That is happening with many homes in the Tampa area. And now that it’s rainy / monster lawn season, it only takes about one week of neglect to become a jungle.
That’s an advantage of living in a dry climate. Abandoned places go back to being a desert. In a tropical climate, abandoned places go back to being a jungle. The jungle takes a lot more effort to fix.
I remember driving around in rural SC and seeing old houses completely covered with kudzu. It reminded me of scenes from various disaster B-flicks.
Is the real purpose of the proposed mortgage backstop merely to use taxpayer-subsidized insurance to inflate U.S. housing prices to levels where young families are priced out?
* The Wall Street Journal
* ECONOMY
* JULY 25, 2010, 10:23 P.M. ET
Geithner: U.S. Should Retain a Mortgage Backstop
By NICK TIMIRAOS and DAMIAN PALETTA
Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner said Sunday the government should retain “some type” of federal guarantee to ensure that Americans can easily finance home loans, in what could be the latest salvo between the Obama administration and Republicans over the future role of the public sector in the housing market.
The statement cuts to the heart of one of the most vexing policy questions in Washington: what to do with the costly government-run mortgage giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.
Both companies were taken over by the U.S. in 2008 as they teetered towards collapse. So far, the Treasury has injected $145 billion in taxpayer aid to keep them afloat and that figure could climb in the coming months.
Republicans have said the firms and their distortive role in the housing market need to be addressed immediately. They say that their quasi-government nature allowed them to grow so large they helped fuel the financial crisis.
The Obama administration has said the firms should not return to their original state. But they haven’t gone as far as some Republicans that have hinted at abolishing the functions the companies performed, such as offering mortgage guarantees.
Mr. Geithner promised the administration would “bring fundamental change” and said it wouldn’t “preserve Fannie and Freddie in anything like their current form” during a Sunday appearance on NBC’s “Meet the Press.”
But, he added, “there’s going to be a good case for taking a look at preserving or putting in place a carefully designed guarantee so, again, homeowners have the ability to borrow to finance a home even in a very difficult recession.”
…
But, he added, “there’s going to be a good case for taking a look at preserving or putting in place a carefully designed guarantee so, again, homeowners have the ability to borrow to finance a home even in a very difficult recession.”
Pointed question for Timothy:
Why?
Where in any set of principles - documented (Constitution, Bible, Koran, whatever) or otherwise - is actual ownership a right of the people, and by extension a responsibility of the government?
Barney Frank said it was. Does he count?
That all needs to be rephrased.
Try this: The people have the right to pay banks interest and the gov’t taxes.
Honestly, I wouldn’t care if we were going to keep government support for the mortgage market, but it needs to be done by creating a separate explicitly guaranteed entity that pumps all profits back into the government, and that has 20 percent down fully documented fixed rate loans of the 10, 15, 20, and 30 year variety as the ONLY products it accepts, and the max loan limit is 3 times the median county family income.
Here’s the bonus for low-income home ownership promotion. They sell special ‘bonds’ that return X% reinvesting, and can be converted into down-payments available to people earning the median or under salary for the county they are in.
Then the low income people would have at least one viable means of saving for their down payment. If they don’t want to save, they don’t have to own.
That’s pretty damn good idea there.
Politicians make money off of high property values via taxes. Money to politicians is like crack to crackheads.
A government lending program will do everything it can to debauch lending standards. But it’s no big deal, because it never has to turn a profit, as it will be funded by taxpayer money.
It will be however, very politically popular due to the 25% of the economy that is the financial sector, and the 60-some percent of the populace that either owns a home or has a mortgage.
Again, the net result will be a further homgenization of the economy towards the FIRE sector and away from a heterogeneous economy with other productive pursuits.
Ohio caught in 5-year jobs bust
Business First of Columbus
Ohio is among a bevy of states that have lost private-sector jobs since mid-2005, an analysis by Portfolio.com and Bizjournals has found, but the state’s tumble was among the steepest.
Ohio’s predicament differs dramatically from the economic fortunes of Nevada, California and Florida, which were among the strongest job creators since the middle of the decade but have fallen to the bottom of the list, according to the review of employment trends. Several factors have turned the three leader states into laggards during the past five years, notably the deflation of their hyperexpanded real estate markets and a sharp downturn in tourism.
Nevada, California and Florida collectively lost 1.7 million jobs since 2005. All are saddled with double-digit unemployment rates, with Nevada the highest at 14 percent in May.
Surprises also can be found at the top of the midyear rankings done by the digital news organizations affiliated with Columbus Business First. North Dakota enjoys the nation’s strongest employment environment at the moment, and Alaska holds second place, according to the Portfolio.com/Bizjournals rankings. Both frontrunners registered impressive gains during the past half-decade, at a time when most other states were suffering sizable declines. North Dakota expanded its employment base by 7.8 percent from 2005 to 2010, adding 21,300 jobs. Alaska’s corresponding gain was 4.4 percent, or 10,100 jobs.
“North Dakota expanded its employment base by 7.8 percent from 2005 to 2010, adding 21,300 jobs. Alaska’s corresponding gain was 4.4 percent, or 10,100 jobs.”
Having modest job growth in the smallest states, doesn’t help much. It’s dwarfed by the number of jobs lost elsewhere by a factor of more than 250 to 1.
Indeed. Multinationals have been known to announce layoffs that would gobble up North Dakota’s 5 year job gain in a single gulp!
Yeah, but it sounds like green shoots when they say N.Dak is up by 7.8%. It been documented repeatedly that nobody in this country seems to be able to do math anymore. Especially “story problems”
Employment up 5% in N Dakota, Wyoming and Montana = Employment down 5% in California, New York and Ohio.
Call it “Fox Math”.
BUY NOW OR BE PRICED OUT FOREVER!!
Scientists celebrated Sunday after finding more than 700 suspected new planets — including up to 140 similar in size to Earth. Astronomers said the discovery meant the chances of eventually finding truly Earth-like planets capable of sustaining life rose sharply
http://www.foxnews.com/scitech/2010/07/25/nasas-deep-space-camera-locates-host-earths/
Yeah but commuting costs will be a bit of a bear.
Fly ’til you qualify.
If you lived here you’d be home by now!
Imagine how cool those planets would be if they were covered in condoze.
And MALLS! Lot and lots of malls!
And Starbucks!
Where’s Hari Seldon when you need him?
In the Vault, Colorado!
I bet he’d have a few words to say about our trends on Earth today…
Do you think other species on other planets have asset bubbles?
Home sales surge in June
July 26, 2010 10:42 AM ET
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Sales of new U.S. single-family homes rebounded strongly in June from the prior month’s record low, driving the number of houses on the market to its lowest level in nearly 42 years.
The Commerce Department said on Monday sales jumped 23.6 percent to a 330,000 unit annual rate from a downwardly revised 267,000 units in May. The sales pace last month was still the second lowest since records started in 1963. The percentage increase was the largest increase since May 1980, and partially unwound the prior month’s historic 36.7 percent decline.
Analysts polled by Reuters had forecast new home sales rising to a 320,000 unit pace last month from May’s previously reported 300,000 units.
“Right now we’re running about 60 percent below the average annualized rate for the last decade, so there’s a lot of potential out there for improvement,” said Michael O’Rourke, chief market strategist at BTIG LLC in New York.
“It seems like sales are bottoming, so its just a matter of that foreclosure inventory clearing up. After that, then we can start seeing some upside. I expect that to happen later this year, maybe next year.”
U.S. government debt prices dipped on the home sales data, while U.S. stocks added to gains. The U.S. dollar pared losses against the yen.
Recent data have suggested the economy’s recovery from its longest and deepest recession since the 1930s moderated somewhat in the second quarter. Economists expect weak housing activity to act as a drag on growth for much of the year.
The government is expected to report on Friday that gross domestic product growth slowed to a 2.5 percent annual rate in the April-June period from a 2.7 percent pace in the first three months of the year.
The Commerce report suggested the housing market may be close to working through the distortions following the end of a popular home-buyer tax credit in April, an incentive that brought forward sales. Data last week showed home construction fell to an eight-month low in June, while sales of existing home sales were the lowest in three months.
Analysts, however, believe a drop in home building is unlikely to ignite a new recession since housing is a much smaller share of the economy now than it was at the top of the housing boom.
The impact of a 10 percent drop in home construction has about one-third the impact now as it did in 2006, according to economists at Bank of America-Merrill Lynch.
Last month’s surge in sales saw the supply of new homes available for sale dropping to 7.6 months’ worth from 9.6 months’ worth in May.
The number of new homes on the market dropped 1.4 percent to 210,000 units, the lowest level since September 1968. The median sale price for a new home fell 1.4 percent last month to $213,400. In the 12 months to June, prices dipped 0.6 percent.
Underscoring the pullback in growth, a measure of national economic activity fell in June for the first time since February. The Chicago Federal Reserve Bank said its national activity index fell to minus 0.63 from a positive 0.31 in May.
A reading above zero indicates the economy is growing above trend. However, the three-month moving average indicates growth has returned very close to its historical trend, and suggests subdued inflationary pressure for the coming year, the Chicago Fed said.
Analysts, however, believe a drop in home building is unlikely to ignite a new recession since housing is a much smaller share of the economy now than it was at the top of the housing boom.
Wait, mal-investing in bubbles causes collapses, but slow downs in a business sector that’s running at a historically acceptable capacity only has minor effects on the overall economies?
Who would have thought?
Geithner: U.S. Should Retain a Mortgage Backstop.
Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner said Sunday the government should retain “some type” of federal guarantee to ensure that Americans can easily finance home loans, in what could be the latest salvo between the Obama administration and Republicans over the future role of the public sector in the housing market.
The statement cuts to the heart of one of the most vexing policy questions in Washington: what to do with the costly government-run mortgage giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.
Both companies were taken over by the U.S. in 2008 as they teetered towards collapse. So far, the Treasury has injected $145 billion in taxpayer aid to keep them afloat and that figure could climb in the coming months.
If they’re going to continue providing government support, they need to bin Freddie, Fannie, and FHA in favor of a new process that isn’t rife with corruption and career bureaucrats. Then in 40-60 years, they can can the replacement and start a new one that’s not festering with incompetence and graft. Wash and repeat.
Just heard this am that here in Salinas (Monterey Co) that the new garbage fees are a PFI tax that is a sham pass through to the city/county to add revenue to the same.
“BIM64125 - Private finance initiative (PFI): accounting and tax …
A PFI contract involves a private sector ‘operator’ receiving an annual sum, the ‘unitary charge’, as a payment for services. For tax purposes the unitary charge”
“It’s not my fault, Marge, the liquor drunkened me” (Homer Simpson)
Rent now, or get priced in forever!
Trend Now Is to Rent
July 26, 2010
The recession and shifting demographics will swell the ranks of people who will rent, not buy, housing over the next five years.
Stop “throwing your money away” every month on an underwater mortgage.
BP to exile Tony Hayward to Siberia!
NEW ORLEANS (AP) — Tony Hayward, who became the face of BP’s flailing efforts to contain the massive Gulf oil spill, will step down as chief executive in October and be offered a job with the company’s joint venture in Russia, a person familiar with the matter said Monday.
BP could save megabucks on his golden parachute by having the Russian mafia bump him off.
Linkey linkey
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/BPs-Hayward-to-leave-as-CEO-apf-3209718158.html?x=0&sec=topStories
Can I call it or what?
Jim Rogers: Stress Test Is a PR Exercise
Monday, 26 Jul 2010 CNBC.com
The stress test in which only seven of 91 European Union banks failed is just a public relations exercise and wasn’t tough enough, famous investor Jim Rogers told CNBC.com Monday.
On Friday, EU authorities released the results for the stress tests, with many analysts saying the criteria had been harsher than the ones used to test US banks a year ago. But Rogers said the European test was “a PR exercise just as was America’s.”
They were “a waste of time – and journalistic ink,” he wrote in an e-mail.
Many analysts criticized the fact that a sovereign default in Europe had not been taken into consideration in the criteria for the test, but the head of the Committee of European Banking Supervisors (CEBS) told CNBC that sovereign exposure of banks taking the test had been disclosed.
United Technologies plans to cut another 1,500 jobs after eliminating 900 jobs in first half. ~ July 26, 2010
HARTFORD, Conn. (AP) — United Technologies Corp. says it plans to cut another 1,500 jobs through 2011 after eliminating 900 positions in the first half of this year.
The parent company of jet engine manufacturer Pratt & Whitney, Otis elevator, Sikorsky Aircraft and other businesses said Monday in a regulatory filing that it will take restructuring and other costs of $121 million in 2010 related to the cuts.
The Hartford, Conn., company didn’t specify where the job cuts are coming.
It says it cut about 900 jobs as of June 30 and expects to complete most of the remaining cost-cutting this year and in 2011.
United Technologies had announced 11,600 job cuts in 2009. It employed 206,700 workers as of the end of 2009.
Shares rose 49 cents, to $71.39 in afternoon trading.
Doesn’t United Technologies make green shoots?
Where’s the rest of the story? The part about outsourcing the work to someplace else?
Question for the smarter people on this site then me:
I was told over the weekend that a couple who sold their home at short sale is now living in the home and paying rent to the new owner. The bank was never told, is this legal?
I’m thinking that there might be a couple of red flags that would be of interest to a bank:
1. It’s an investment property. IIRC, the interest rate on a loan for such a property is higher than on one that the owner lives in.
2. Not telling the bank could be construed as an attempt to defraud. Any legal eagles care to weigh in on this point?
It seems that a scam is run every second in this world. Thanks AZ Slim for the info, I can’t wait to go for a walk and run into these folks and ask, “didn’t you just short sale”?
Sure, they short-sold to their kids, who are renting it back to them.
Maybe not so hard to do if you use moms maiden name, or the present dad is not the bio dad…
The new owner can rent to whomever they please. The former owners are now renters.
Waiting for home prices to come back quickly? Don’t hold your breath
July 26, 2010 WASHINGTON (AP)
Thought the housing crisis was over? Not quite.
Despite four years of falling prices and recent signs that they were finally bottoming out, homes are expected to lose still more value in many metro areas over the next year.
Parts of the country already pummeled by the housing crisis, like Las Vegas, Phoenix and Miami, will be hit hardest. But even some places that have held up relatively well — including New York, Los Angeles and Washington, D.C. — will suffer, too.
That’s the conclusion of economists who have been reducing their estimates for home prices as the outlook for the economic recovery has darkened. The number of homes for sale or headed for foreclosure is so high that they think prices will be even lower by next July.
Because housing is such an important engine of the economy, lower prices could dim the recovery. When home values fall and people have less equity, they tend to cut back on spending. And as prices decline, potential homebuyers stay on the sidelines, slowing sales even more.
Industries Find Surging Profits in Deeper Cuts
nytimes ~ July 26, 2010
By most measures, Harley-Davidson has been having a rough ride.
Motorcycle sales are falling in 2010, as they have for each of the last three years. The company does not expect a turnaround anytime soon.
But despite that drought, Harley’s profits are rising — soaring, in fact. Last week, Harley reported a $71 million profit in the second quarter, more than triple what it earned a year ago.
This seeming contradiction — falling sales and rising profits — is one reason the mood on Wall Street is so much more buoyant than in households, where pessimism runs deep and joblessness shows few signs of easing.
Many companies are focusing on cost-cutting to keep profits growing, but the benefits are mostly going to shareholders instead of the broader economy, as management conserves cash rather than bolstering hiring and production. Harley, for example, has announced plans to cut 1,400 to 1,600 more jobs by the end of next year. That is on top of 2,000 job cuts last year — more than a fifth of its work force.
Ummm, Slim checking in with some personal experience on the cost-cutting front:
Back in 2006, I noticed that, as compared to 2005, when the stars aligned, I was in a bit of a slump. So, I fired my financial manager, Spenderella, and put Frugal MacDougall in her place.
Thanks to Frugal’s hard work, I was able to remain profitable in 2006 and 2007. But my revenues were going down.
In mid-2007, I decided to do something about that. I went on a cold-calling tear, and guess what? The results started showing up in a very positive way in early 2008. I kept up with the cold calls in 2008, but, shhh, don’t tell anyone, but I fell off the proverbial wagon last year.
Nowadays, what’s hurting me most is not the economy. It is what it is, and we all have to deal with it.
Rather, the calls I didn’t make last year are what’s hurting me this year. And, needless to say, I’ve been spending a lot of time on the phone lately.
So, lesson to all of you business types: Don’t quit prospecting. Ever. And forget about your business stars aligning on a regular basis. Not gonna happen.
In short, stay on your prospecting wagon even if you have to bolt yourself to it.
American business can shrink its way out of this. In the end they will have no workers and no sales but the accounting thieves will somehow come up with the fat bonus checks for the ‘haves’ that are left.
In other words, don’t buy a Harley anytime soon, because the first thing that goes with cost cutting… is QC.
U.S. Small-Business Aid May Create $300 Billion of `Junk’ Loans
Jul 26, 2010
President Barack Obama is on the verge of creating as much as $300 billion in credit for small businesses as bankers raise doubt about whether there’s demand for new loans and how much will be repaid.
The U.S. Senate may vote this week on a bill to funnel $30 billion of capital to community banks, whose business customers typically are small firms. Banks could leverage the sum to make $300 billion in loans that create jobs, according to a Senate summary. That could more than double the commercial and industrial loans at eligible banks as of the first quarter, according to data compiled by KBW Inc.
Bankers say the problem isn’t scarce credit, it’s lack of demand from creditworthy firms in a weak economy. The result may be more loans given to distressed firms and higher losses. While bank regulators don’t compile default rates, the biggest lenders have charge-offs of 4 percent to 14 percent tied to small businesses. Eliot Stark, managing director at Capital Insight Partners Inc., said their credit record resembles “junk.”
Maybe if businesses were allowed to lie a little on the loan application…
News from “The OC”
Owners rush to sell O.C. homes:
July 26th, 2010, by Jon Lansner OC Register
A wave of potential home sellers pushed the number of Orange County homes on the market to a 15-month high. The latest Orange County home inventory report from Steve Thomas Altera Real Estate as of July 22 says …:
“Orange County housing inventory grew by the largest amount so far this year, adding an additional 418 homes in the past two weeks and now totals 11,235. The market has not breached the 11,000 mark since the beginning of April 2009. Last year at this time the inventory was at 8,895 homes, 2,340 fewer than today. The inventory has not stopped growing at all this year as more and more pent up homeowners have opted to place their homes on the market at unrealistic levels. The same media reports of median home price increases and year over year increases in the number of closed sales have fooled these pent up sellers into believing that the market has recovered and that it is a great time to take advantage of the market. It is true that agents have tons of buyers in the market that have written many unsuccessful offers thus far and homes that are priced well are receiving multiple offers. The market disconnect lies in the fact that inventory has been increasing on the backs of unrealistic homeowners who have placed their homes on the market at overpriced levels.”
Thomas calculates a “market time” benchmark tracking how many months it theoretically takes to sell all the inventory in the local MLS for-sale listings at the current pace of pending deals being made. By this Thomas logic, as of last Thursday, it would take:
* 3.91 months for buyers to gobble up all homes for sale at the current pace vs. 3.78 months two weeks ago vs. 2.69 months a year ago vs. 5.38 months two years ago.
* Homes listed for under a million bucks have a market time of 3.37 months vs. 10.68 months for homes listed for more than $1 million.
* So, basically, it is 3.2 times harder to sell a million-dollar-plus residence!
* And just so you know, the million-dollar market represents 21% of all homes listed and 8% of all homes that entered into escrow in the past 30 days.
Here’s the recent data, as of last Thursday, for listings; deals pending; market time in months; last Thursday vs. 2 weeks ago, a year ago and 2 years ago (Note: k=thousand; m=million) …
Observations from party over weekend. Friends are all excited about their new homes purchased during $8K refund time. But perhaps a bit cash poor. Lots of remodeling and upgrades to do. Most are cash strapped now. Smaller, old houses. $150K-$200K normal price.
Flip side, no one I know has sold a house without going short sale. One friend’s ex walked away.
One of my friends sold her money pit a few weeks ago. She took a bit of a loss on it, but she’ll be okay.
Her expense footprint will be a lot lower now. In addition to getting rid of the house, she’s moved into an apartment out of state. In the field that she’s in, she’ll find much more work there.
As much as I miss having her here, I’m looking forward to hearing about her successes in her new home.
Don’t worry, once they quit making the mortgae payments they will have more cash to spend.
Don’t hold your breath for a bounce in home prices
WASHINGTON (AP) — Thought the housing crisis was over? Not quite.
Despite four years of falling prices and recent signs that they were finally bottoming out, homes are expected to lose still more value in many metro areas over the next year.
Parts of the country already pummeled by the housing crisis, like Las Vegas, Phoenix and Miami, will be hit hardest. But even some places that have held up relatively well — including New York, Los Angeles and Washington, D.C. — will suffer, too.
http://tinyurl.com/32rvdjj
“Price drops of more than 10 percent are expected in the Phoenix, Miami and Las Vegas areas over the next year, according to Moody’s Analytics. Those areas have already been scorched by 50 percent declines in home values.”
Could the declines in Phoenix be more than 10 percent, if the stories of sizable numbers of illegals moving out of Arizona are correct?
“Moody’s predicts that other areas — New York, Los Angeles, San Diego, San Francisco, Denver, Detroit, Cleveland, Minneapolis, Tampa, Fla.; and Washington D.C. — will see declines of 2 to 8 percent by next July.”
Those are broad declines for a wide range of markets. I wouldn’t be surprised if the declines are quite a bit steeper over the next five years.
I think you may be right. I haven’t made any predictions beyond 2012 but for several years on HBB I agreed that 2012 will be the bottom. Demographics could move that to 2015 or 2016.
I love those Series I savings bonds as an alternative place to put your money. Imagine theoretically you and your spouse could have put $240,000 (maximum) into Series I and Series EE paper and electronic bonds in 2001. The fixed rate was 3%. On top of that is the variable rate, usually 2% to 3%. Fourteen years of an average of 4% or 5% return without having to pay a real estate company to manage your property makes a stress-free existence. Imagine 4% compounded for fourteen years while the S&P has an ARR of negative. What a slam dunk!
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/home/moslive/article-1212013/Revealed-The-ghost-fleet-recession-anchored-just-east-Singapore.html
More green shoots: the “ghost fleet” anchored off Singapore with no exports to haul.
28th September 2009
This is what is known as “old news.”
I was casting around the internet recently for news on the ghost ships of Singapore, and found none. I guess the recovery in dry bulk shipping must have already happened?
Hello , does anyone have the You Tube link about the banks being made whole by the fdic/treasury for reo/short sales. Someone posted a link a few weeks ago and I can’t seem to find it.
Thanks,
Thank you for posting that WSPA ad against the cruelty of bear baiting. I have noticed some of the posters here relish engaging in the practice, so I am glad someone has finally decided to take a stand.
Since we don’t have enough vacant homes yet in the U.S.A., the home builders are coming to the rescue!
Soon we will have affordable housing for everyone, and affordable vacation homes, too!!!
* The Wall Street Journal
* HOMES
* JULY 27, 2010
Supply of Homes Set to Grow
By ROBBIE WHELAN
Sales of new homes are near 47-year lows, yet the supply of new and existing homes is expected to grow in the months ahead as construction ramps up and a wave of foreclosed homes hits the market.
In June, new-home sales were running at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 330,000 units, the Commerce Department said Monday. While that was up 23.6% from the all-time low of 267,000 in May, the June figures were the second lowest on record.
“What we’re really seeing here is that new-home sales are at what I’d call rock bottom,” said Steve Blitz, an economist at Majestic Research in New York. “The last time we were running these kinds of numbers was the 1982-1983 recession, when we had 100 million less people.”
LPS Applied Analytics, a firm that tracks mortgage data, said Monday that there were 4.56 million loans in default or in some stage of foreclosure in June, down slightly from May. But the number of new foreclosures initiated on properties backed by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac increased sharply, rising 21% in June from May.
The rise in foreclosures on Fannie and Freddie properties reflects the failure of many troubled borrowers to receive permanent loan modifications plans, analysts said. Having exhausted all options to rescue their homes, many troubled borrowers may now be giving up.
“Looking at the numbers you’re seeing about this pickup in foreclosure starts, it’s hard to see how it’s not going to translate into elevated levels of [properties taken over by banks] down the road,” said Herb Blecher, an analyst at LPS.
Home builders, which began buying up land lots late last year in anticipation of an economic and housing rebound, are stuck with thousands of acres that are prone to lose value as the market struggles. Many will build homes on the land, rather than write off its value and wait for the market to improve.
“Builders are willing to pay a premium to not have that risk on their hands. They’re still facing a tremendous amount of stress,” said Brad Hunter, chief economist at Metrostudy, a housing-market research firm based in Houston. “They’re discounting the homes, they’re making very small profit margins, but they’re building homes. They’re very interested in securing market share.”
Several former bubble markets are seeing the biggest increase in home construction. According to Metrostudy, new-home starts in the second quarter show signs of rising 68.1% in South Florida, 83.7% in Naples/Ft. Myers, 65.1% in Las Vegas and 59.7% in Denver from the same period in 2009.
Other indicators also point to builders preparing to increase home construction, despite lagging sales. The number of finished vacant lots, or parcels of land that have been developed and readied for building, stands at about 1.2 million nationwide, according to Metrostudy, or just 5% below the peak in late 2008.
Most metro areas are flush with vacant homes as well: Metrostudy found that of the 48 metro areas the firm covers, only four—northern Virginia, San Antonio, Houston and Baltimore—have what is considered a “balanced” inventory of unsold homes, or about three months’ supply or less.
Coastal Southern California, which includes many of the cities near Los Angeles, has an ample supply of builder-ready land—about two years’ worth—owned by banks, developers, investors, the government and the builders themselves, which are starting construction in earnest.
…
WSJ Blogs
Developments
Real estate news and analysis from The Wall Street Journal
* Real Estate News: Investors Sink More Cash Into Housing
* Financial Overhaul Includes $1 Billion in Mortgage Aid for Unemployed
* July 26, 2010, 10:20 AM ET
Mortgage Delinquencies Fall in June, Still Near Record Highs
By Nick Timiraos
After rising in May, the rate of mortgage delinquencies and foreclosures fell in June.
Some 9.39% of all loans were 30 days or more past due, down from 9.54% in May, according to LPS Applied Analytics, which tracks loan data. An additional 3.69% of mortgages were in some stage of foreclosure, down from 3.72% in May and the record high of 3.81% in March.
The ratio of loans that were seriously delinquent, or 90 days or more past due, to the amount of loans in foreclosure still shows a sizeable overhang but fell for the second straight month, to levels last seen last September. The fact that there are still more than double the number of delinquent loans than loans in foreclosure suggests that the glut of bank-owned properties will continue to weigh on housing markets for many months to come.
Foreclosure starts increased sharply during the month on loans owned or guaranteed by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac as more government loan-modification trials failed to convert to permanent modifications. On Friday, Freddie said that its share of seriously delinquent loans fell for the fourth straight month, to 3.96% in June.
Separately, the S&P/Experian index of consumer credit defaults showed that that mortgage defaults were down by 5% in June from May, and down by 45% from one year ago. Second mortgage defaults were flat from one month earlier.
Data from Equifax and Moody’s Economy.com showed that mortgage delinquencies had the largest increase in San Diego; Sacramento, Calif.; and Charlotte, N.C. during the second quarter.
Has Uncle Sam Finally Grown a Spine?
Friday, July 16, 2010 | Ethan Roberts
Editor’s Note: This week Ethan and Costas debate one of the most important issues today: whether it’s OK to walk away from a home you’re underwater on. I asked them to debate this subject in the wake of Fannie Mae’s announcement last week that they were going to take “legal action” to pursue homeowners who “strategically walk away.” We hope you enjoy! – Dylan Jovine
HAS UNCLE SAM FINALLY GROWN A SPINE?
Over the years, I have attended hundreds of real estate closings. For some reason, at 95% of these events, the closing agent always tells the buyers the same old joke. Basically, it goes like this:
“Well, Mr. and Mrs. Johnson, there’s about 20 pages to your mortgage note here. You may read it all if you wish, but to summarize all 20 pages, If YOU PAY, YOU STAY. IF YOU DON’T, YOU WON’T!”
And everybody laughs.
It used to be funny. Maybe because I have heard it so often it has now lost its humor, or perhaps it’s because so many people are just choosing NOT to pay anymore.
But these days I find it kind of sad, as if a big part of the American dream, that once made our country great, has died.
Nevertheless, some changes are in the wind.
At the end of June, government owned Fannie Mae announced that they will soon be taking legal action to recoup the outstanding mortgage debt from borrowers who “strategically default” (i.e. purposely stop paying) on loans that they have the ability to pay.
That means that a court could have the right to order a defaulting borrower to pay any unpaid portion of their loan after their home is sold in foreclosure.
Fannie Mae is now instructing the companies who service its loans to recommend when they should pursue a deficiency judgment against strategic defaulters.
Furthermore, Fannie Mae stated that any borrowers who strategically default (or do not complete a workout alternative in good faith) will be ineligible for a new Fannie-Mae backed loan for seven years from the date of foreclosure.
This new legislation does not apply to people who are losing their homes due to real financial hardships, from job loss, impairment, etc. They still have the right to seek loan modification or short sales, and may become eligible to buy a home again within a few years.
This is simply Fannie Mae getting tough on those who, despite having the means to pay, decided to thumb their noses at the U.S. taxpayer, who has to pick up the tab for their default.
I say “BRAVO!” It’s about time.
…
Who would have dreamed that renting would leave one paying a premium for unaffordable housing compared to home owners, at least those taking advantage of today’s special ‘payment free’ mortgages!
Many Bay Area homeowners in real estate limbo
By Sue McAllister and Eve Mitchell
Bay Area News Group
Posted: 07/25/2010 12:01:00 AM PDT
Updated: 07/25/2010 07:18:28 AM PDT
Tens of thousands of Bay Area homeowners are trapped in a bizarre real estate limbo, living in houses but no longer paying for them, waiting and wondering if someone will help them — or throw them out.
Some are victims of their own economic circumstances, unable to afford their mortgage and expecting to lose their homes if they can’t get a break from their bank. Others are opportunists, choosing not to spend on a house worth less than they owe. Instead, they can live rent-free until their lender makes a move.
The limbo phenomenon is a radical departure from previous real estate crashes, when there were far fewer troubled loans and banks moved speedily on those who fell behind on payments. Now many lenders
simply can’t keep up, and others appear reluctant to flood a weakened market with foreclosed homes.
It all adds up to lingering instability for the Bay Area housing market, as lenders slowly work through the backlog while homeowners endure uncertainty that could last months or even years.
“It’s bad all the way around, for the neighbor, the community, the city, state, nation,” said Chris George, founder and CEO of CMG Mortgage, based in San Ramon. “It’s a continued indication that there are a lot of people in trouble, particularly with their job situations.”
Some homeowners say ignoring the mortgage is the only option they have.
“I stopped paying payments about 12 months ago,” said Jeff Dunkin, who has twice sought to modify the loan on his San Jose condo near Branham High School, and twice been denied. The 25-year-old construction worker has been employed only sporadically since early 2009, and the unemployment checks he’s collected are less than half what he used to make. He knows some people may think living mortgage-free sounds like a cushy deal. But that’s not how it feels to him.
“It’s a lot of anxiety, a lot of stress,” Dunkin said.
…
* The Wall Street Journal
* AHEAD OF THE TAPE
* JULY 27, 2010
Why Jobs, Not Housing Data, Is the Key
* By KELLY EVANS
Just because housing led the economy into recession there is no reason to believe it will lead the way out.
That is why investors are best off skipping over Tuesday’s housing-market data in favor of the jobs figures that come out two days later. Housing still is crucial to any strong economic recovery, but it is the job losses related to housing that shouldn’t be ignored.
The government’s efforts to revive the housing market have been huge: record-low mortgage rates, home-buyer tax credits, $1.25 trillion spent on mortgage-backed securities, limitless Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac backing. And for what? The S&P/Case-Shiller index out Tuesday is likely to show home prices in 20 major U.S. cities rose only 4% in May from last year’s depressed levels. That still is 30% off the 2006 peak. Prices look set to weaken again as stimulus measures wear off.
Already, one in four homeowners owes more than their house is worth, says CoreLogic. They are left unable to sell their homes, refinance at lower rates, tap home equity to fund spending or launch new businesses. The more prices fall, the more widespread such conditions become.
Understandably, officials want to prevent this. But for all the risks associated with weak housing, there are others from too much intervention. Encouraging home buying through low rates on 30-year mortgages is one such example. It “highlights the fallacy…of encouraging more debt when excess debt was a major cause of the crisis,” notes Gabriel Stein of Lombard Street Research.
Part of the solution is accepting that housing had to adjust from its bloated levels. Layoffs in construction have accounted for 27% of private-sector job losses since 2007. If you add loan officers, real-estate agents, architects and landscapers, then housing-related layoffs account for at least a third of the total.
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Aussie Housing Bubble Gets Popped With Chinese Credit Crash
July 26, 2010 - 5:24 pm
Christopher Pavese
Christopher Pavese serves as President and Chief Investment Officer of the Broyhill Affinity Fund.
Australia: Another Land Shortage
New homes starts in Australia hit a six-year high last quarter thanks to stimulus spending on public housing. In all, home starts were almost 35 percent higher than in the first quarter of 2009, the fastest annual pace in eight years. Approvals to build new homes surged 43 percent between May and December last year, leaving a big pipeline of construction still to come. Growth in approvals has leveled off in the past few months but they still remain 37 percent above last year’s low. Yet analysts still allege that far fewer homes are being built than needed to meet demand. We shall see.
Demand for new home loans fell to a nine-year low in April as rising interest rates dampen enthusiasm for housing. The number of new home loans has fallen 26 percent since its recent peak in June 2009, a leading indicator for housing. With a lag, you would expect these numbers to flow through to building approvals, housing starts and ultimately prices. Higher interest rates are starting to bite with new home sales dropping by more than 6 percent in May 2010 and average loan prices declining, according to Australia’s Housing Industry Association (HIA). Sydney’s most recent auction clearance rate fell below 50 percent and remained flat in Melbourne, with both posting their lowest rates since December 2008.
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Well Maybe Aussie does have a land shortage since most of the country is desert….
oops we built tons of McMansions in our deserts….
Here is a well-done summary of the collapse of the U.S. home construction industry, with charts:
Housing Starts & Building Permits for June 2010
Submitted by Robert Oak on Tue, 07/20/2010 - 09:43
* housing starts
* Macro Economics
* residential real estate
Housing Starts dropped -5% in June 2010. Last month housing starts were revised to a -14.9% decline from April.
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You know times are bad when a 5% drop in new residential construction represents an “improvement” over the previous month’s number!
US housing starts slide 5% in June
By Alan Rappeport in New York
Published: July 20 2010 14:38 | Last updated: July 20 2010 14:38
Builders continued to suffer in June as the stalling US housing market reduced new residential construction to its slowest rate in eight months.
US housing starts fell by 5 per cent to an adjusted annual rate of 549,000 last month, commerce department figures showed on Tuesday. That was a bigger fall than Wall Street analysts had projected and left starts down 5.8 per cent from the same month a year ago.
The June drop was an improvement from May, when housing starts plunged by 14.9 per cent in the wake of the expiry of a government stimulus for the sector. Driving the downturn last month was a plunge in new construction for multi-family dwellings, while construction for single-family homes slipped modestly.
“This report confirms last month’s message of just how important government manipulation efforts were to supporting housing activity in the recent past,” said Joshua Shapiro, chief US economist at MFR, of the expired first-time homebuyer tax credit. “While we are unlikely to return on a sustained basis to severely depressed activity levels seen a year and more ago, neither are we likely to return any time soon to the levels that were temporarily reached due to the tax credit programme.”
New home construction has been hampered by a glut of housing already on the market at reduced rates due to foreclosures and distressed sales. Compared with their housing boom peak in 2006, starts are off by 76 per cent.
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