Bits Bucket For August 4, 2010
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The Housing Bubble
Examining the home price boom and its effect on owners, lenders, regulators, realtors and the economy as a whole.
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Name:Ben Jones
Location:Northern Arizona, United States
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U.S. Consumer Bankruptcies May Exceed 1.6 Million for Year, Institute Says. (Bloomberg)
U.S. consumer bankruptcies, after rising 9 percent last month from June, might exceed 1.6 million this year, according to the American Bankruptcy Institute.
The 137,698 bankruptcy filings in July also represent a 9 percent increase from a year earlier, the institute said yesterday in a statement posted on its website, citing data from the National Bankruptcy Research Center.
“Debt burdens, unemployment and an uncertain economic climate continue to weigh on consumers,” Samuel J. Gerdano, the institute’s executive director, said in the statement. “The pace of consumer filings this year remains on track to top 1.6 million filings.”
I love how they are “consumer bankruptcies” and not “personal bankruptcies”.
I consume, there for I am?
“I love how they are “consumer bankruptcies” and not “personal bankruptcies”.
I consume, there for I am?”
I truly detest references to consumers in almost any context. Certainly any office-seeker who refers to citizens as consumers (rather than citizens, Americans, Arizonans, even voters) will lose my support almost instantly. Buying a used car every five or six years, a new laptop every three, and some food/fuel/replacement clothing a few times per month do not define my character.
OK, I am overly sensitive about it.
It’s okay, AnonyRuss. You’re among friends here.
More than a few of us are overly sensitive about this topic too. Thanks for articulating our sentiments so well.
Then don’t use any mental health services. Its shameful how that word has infiltrated that area. retards CONSUME our services.
or the new one… you’re not dumb you just learn differently.
It used to be if a debtor got in over their heads with cards, the card companies would shut off their purchasing ability and leave the interest rate alone. Today the purchasing ability is left intact (well, probably not so much very recently), but the interest rate on existing balances are jacked to 20 and 30%. A single missed payment can doom such a consumer to the next level of debt hell …
I would not be surprised to see this continue to tick upwards as our of work individuals with previously very high credit scores run up massive credit card debt keeping the lights on in lieu of real income…
I had a Cap One card a few years ago. I paid the balance in full each month. I was a few days late on payment twice in one year and they raised my rate from 12% to 29%. I have a credit score over 800. I cancelled the card imediately. I can’t imagine what that would do to someone with a large balance on the card.
Since you can’t imagine - allow me to explain it to you. Remember from history class how the serfs of the middle ages worked hard their entire life to support the big people? It’s kindas like that. The low initial interest rate is the bait that captures these poor souls into a lifetime of debt hell.
The best thing for most of these people is to stop paying on the cards. These banks have them over a barrel. It’s time to put the banks over the barrel.
Bear:
Just let the card companies sue…then use you right as an American to have your day in court and show the judge you are broke. 80-90% of the time the judge will dismiss, the other 10-20% he may reschedule another trial date in 9+ months which is the time lag in Queens courts today
And by the time you have a decent job and can afford to pay the debt back…here comes the statute of limitations to your rescue.
Detroit’s Market Share Gains Curbed as U.S. Consumers Hold Back
(Bloomberg)
The comeback being staged by U.S. automakers lost momentum in July as Asian rivals outsold General Motors Co., Ford Motor Co. and Chrysler Group LLC for the first time in three months.
The three car companies’ U.S. market share in July slumped to 43.7 percent, the lowest since March, according to researcher Autodata Corp. Asian carmakers bounced back, taking 48.1 percent of the sales last month, compared with 46.4 percent so far this year. Korean affiliates Hyundai Motor Co. and Kia Motors Corp. grabbed 8.5 percent of the market in July, which exceeded their 7.7 percent share for the year.
It’s proving difficult for the Detroit automakers to sustain a turnaround as consumers shy away from new-car purchases amid high unemployment and limited credit. Among the three, only Ford has changed its image with consumers while its rivals are still trying to win back buyers after last year’s bankruptcies and bailouts, analysts said.
“People are very hesitant to buy a car,” said Jessica Caldwell, an industry analyst with Edmunds.com. “The people in the market are the ones who can’t hold off any longer.”
Broke people don’t have money to buy crap?
Damn, is the MSM sharp or what?
“Broke people don’t have money to buy crap?”
Who woulda thunk?
I read an intereting stat the other week. Apparently there are about 400 registered cars in Colorado for every 1000 licensed drivers, the lowest ratio in the nation. IIRC the that national evrage was somewhere in the 700-800 range. No explanation was offered for why its so low here.
Ski resorts maybe skew the averages? They’re home to thousands of workers in any given season, and yet most of those places are extremely pedestrian-friendly.
Going through Breckenridge last month, we
were shocked to see the number of dark windows in the tourist commercial sections.
Lost count of the number of closed businesses.
That why they get paid the big bucks! For all that “talent”, you know?
Obammy will keep GM afloat with federal govt fleet sales a few more quarters.
First again!!! Woohoo!
Like the housing boom, all good things must come to an end.
Yup…nothing ever stays the same in a serious recession.
In quest for lower costs, Harley-Davidson considers leaving Milwaukee after 107 years
By DINESH RAMDE
Associated Press Writer
MILWAUKEE (AP) — It’s the roar that made Milwaukee famous - the distinctive throaty rumble of a Harley-Davidson motorcycle. But that much-loved racket could be rumbling away to another state if the company cannot bring down its labor costs.
Harley-Davidson warned employees in April that it will move its Wisconsin manufacturing operations elsewhere if it cannot cut millions of dollars at the factories that build the bikes known as “Milwaukee Iron.”
Harley’s corporate headquarters would remain here, but that’s small consolation to a community that has already endured repeated blows to its civic identity.
http://tinyurl.com/353kne6
The Arizona Slim Ranch is located close to a vacant lot that used to have a Harley Davidson dealership on it. (Said lot was bulldozed earlier this summer.)
Any-hoo, the dealership wasn’t exactly a neighborhood fave. They used to throw loud parties, and we, being the peace and quiet loving people that we are, complained a lot.
Eventually, our message was heard by the city, and the Harley folks stopped throwing loud parties.
I understand that they moved to a larger location out by Ina Road and I-10, and I have no idea how business is doing. But I seem to recall reading that Harleys had turned into a trophy purchase for aging Baby Boomers. And, guess what, as that crew gets even older, handling a big ole Hog gets harder to do.
I’m not sure if Harley thought about the Plan B that needs to follow the demise of the Boomers.
Plan B: Power chairs?
For sure Slim,
Harley just discontinued side cars too !
“I said …Drive On Junior”…Grandpa attempts to boink damned kid with his $3k custom Harley walking cane.
Trikes
Years ago, when owned by IMF, Harley produced golf carts. Maybe that wasn’t such a bad choice for diversity.
That big museum thingie they built over by the train station gets a lot of play in the hotel/tourist magazines. It’ll be a little embarassing to say the least if they move out.
Our local Crib Chatter had an especially informative bit on the local condo market from the Chicago Journal.
Linky:
http://www.chicagojournal.com/News/07-28-2010/Foreclosure_filings_rise
The similarities between what’s in this article and what we’ve been reading on the HBB are again astounding. This country lost its collective head over real estate. Out of town investors, local wannabe Trumps, mortgages that never saw a single payment. How can anyone think this over???
We had a guy, a contractor, buy our condo for 350k. We had to contribute all his closing costs, so his cost to enter was close to 0. He took all the furniture(sold furnished), all the appliances, the hot tub, anything of value, for himself. He was foreclosed upon, and now no one will buy his trashed unit out of foreclosure even for 165k, even though comparable units are actually selling for 225k. Still a long drop from the peak, we purchased it for 208k in 2005, put some money into it in furniture and hot tub, etc. He bought it for 350k in 2006, we had no complaints even though he ovbiously made out like a bandit, making no payments yet taking anything that was not bolted down and some stuff that was.
Another unit we sold in 2006 also went into foreclosure, I wonder how many payments this buyer made?
The author has a good sense of humor:
“Valadan, who said he has hired an assistant to bargain with his lender, is still hoping for the best. In spite of the problems he has experienced with his South Loop unit, the property remained, he said, “a good investment.”
Since July 1, lenders filed an additional four foreclosure suits in his building. ”
So much fun in 2 short paragraphs. I like how the deadbeat has the money to hire an assistant to negotiate with his lender, but not the money to pay the mortgage.
This is freaky. I was perusing direct tv’s website. Then I come here and big bad DirectTV banner ad on top. It’s like the internets can read my mind or something…..
“This is freaky. I was perusing direct tv’s website. Then I come here and big bad DirectTV banner ad on top. It’s like the internets can read my mind or something…..”
That’s just Google and the CIA doing a little joint commercial/gov’t spying again. Don’t BE ALARMED!
Google is your Friend…and your Big Brother.
Don’t ve evil…..
What a joke of a company google has become lately.
We search through ixquick. They don’t save your searches, and are offshore. You can even search proxy, where their ID # shows up as the searcher. I LOVE IT!
The spy chip lady is their PR person. She gave them a clean rating for being Anit-Big Brother.
With 19 or so US Intelligence outfits(known) and all their contractors, they are so busy spying on each other they’d never notice me unless I was pulling their chains.
Testing 1..2..3.. Yank, Yank Yank !
google is your friend
don’t ve evil
you guys are funny!
Self-proclaimed Big-time landlords leave a scent of naive prey in the cyber-jungle for big-game hunting marketers.
You’ve never heard of flash cookies? How about the company named (X+1)? Both are worth googling.
Every breath you take and every move you make
Every bond you break
Every step you take, I’ll be watching you.
Every single day and every word you say
Every game you play
Every night you stay, I’ll be watching you.
A very appropriate song for The Police to sing.
+1 Echelon?
+1 Echelon?
I would think that the telecommunications industry, gov’t Cray Jaguars arrays and the even the NASA Columbia SuperComputers are way too new and fast to be bottle-necked by the old Echelon systems and it’s old generation software.
The whole ball of wax has to be all new or at least vastly improved since the early Echelon(SIGINT) collection and analysis network days.
+1 Echelon?
Don’t forget the WOPR
I have a Cray computer. It’s not very fast, but uses 3 dryer plugs.
See PBS Frontline, “Spying on the homefront” for a look at current systems where gov’t spies on us.
LOL, big time landlord. I like it, can I quote you on that?
How about big time stock index prognosticator as well? I like that even more.
See you at 12K.
You already missed that one. You predicted 12K for June.
But did he say which June?
Wasn’t June the Beaver’s mother?
June Cleaver:
http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0050032/
Eddie, if you want to get rid of the spyware on your computer, go to pcworld.com and download Spybot. You’ll be amazed at how many people are watching your every internet move.
Also, Malwarebytes found a couple of programs my anti-virus software missed.
“Also, Malwarebytes found a couple of programs my anti-virus software missed.”
That’s pretty good or…
Download and use a 30 day free trial of Trojan Remover 6.8.3 by Simply Super Software.
A Squared is no longer free.
Or get a mac.
Hmm, we’ve had a few perp walks.
“Please, Sir, may I have more?”
Roidy
Would you settle for a round of obscene bonuses and Southhampton cocktail parties?
Dahling, that would be mahvelous!
Family: Racial bias caused Conn. shooter to snap
By EVERTON BAILEY JR. The Associated Press
Updated: 7:40 a.m. Wednesday, Aug. 4, 2010
Posted: 8:23 a.m. Tuesday, Aug. 3, 2010
MANCHESTER, Conn. — Omar Thornton sat calmly in a meeting with union representative and his supervisors as they showed a video of him stealing beer from the distributor where he worked.
Busted, he didn’t put up a fight, company officials said. He quietly signed a letter of resignation and was headed for the door when he pulled out a gun and started firing — “cold as ice,” as one survivor described it.
In the end, Thornton killed eight people, injured two, then turned the gun on himself in a rampage Tuesday at Hartford Distributors that union and company officials said they would not have anticipated from someone with no history of complaints or disciplinary problems.
Yet relatives say Thornton, 34, finally cracked after suffering racial harassment in a company where he said he was singled out for being black in a predominantly white work force.
“Everybody’s got a breaking point,” said Joanne Hannah, the mother of Thornton’s longtime girlfriend.
After shooting his co-workers, Thornton hid as police moved in. He called his mother, who tried for 10 minutes to talk him out of killing himself, relatives said.
“He said the company was prejudiced and they pushed him,” said Annette Levine, a cousin of Thornton’s mother. “Those were the last words he told his mom: He loved her and they pushed him over the edge.”
So was the ’stealing beer’ a bit of restitution for the company treating him poorly? Sounds like a common criminal to me.
I seriously doubt he was treated poorly. And, yes, the “lifting” of company property is common in these circles as “getting over on the man”. I have seen this “dissin’ ” claim many times. If you don’t adore and admire them, and praise them for achieving nothing, then you are discriminatin’. He just thought he’d get a little bonus.
It’s stealing. Period. Call it what it is. Stop trying to find reasons to justify it.
I have read this several times and I would have to say the police “acted stupidly”.
Hey, “Everybody’s got a breaking point,”.
The race card seems to continue to work as an excuse for some people’s own problems.
Huffington Post - “A second House Democrat, Rep. Maxine Waters of California, could face an ethics trial this fall, further complicating the election outlook for the party as it battles to retain its majority.”
I hear Barbara Lee is already calling the race card on this one. IMO the color of her skin and her political affiliation has helped to tamp down the MSM response. If a Republican was accused of providing “official interest” in their spouse’s financial interests, it would be front page news in all of the MSM. Instead we hear nothing but crickets on the subject.
If GM goes into Deadbeat Financing and pays folks to buy its cars then:
1. GM gets to immediately book the sales which immediately boosts its net income thus its earnings.
2. Doesn’t have to take a hit against net income until much later - until after many payments have been missed which forces GM to deemed many of the loans as uncollectable.
In the meantime: GM gets to demonstrate a stunning economic recovery and thus gets to unload its upcoming IPO to investors/speculators at premium prices.
It’s all good.
And the sheeple on the street think govt takeover of the auto industry is a success. If we had a real MSM in this country instead of a Democrat Party cheerleader operation, the sheeple might understand. But all we get are headlines like “GM ROARS BACK TO PROFITABILITY”.
Pathetic.
Was talking with a colleague a few days ago. He’s a longtime observer of GM and the rest of the U.S. auto industry.
Didn’t take long for the two of us to agree that GM’s downfall was caused by a combo of union greed and management stupidity.
And, being the Michigan Wolverine that I am, I had to point out that, back during my student years, the American auto companies were already developing a rep as uncool places to work. The kids with brains and talent were much more interested in that up and coming industry called “computers.”
So, in essence, the auto industry was having a problem recruiting the best and brightest from a school that was in their backyard. Not good.
Too bad it costs so much to go thorough the safety tests. It’d be neat to have more indie car companies.
FWIW, this is pretty much how GM (and the big three in general) behaved when GM was still fully private. There was a time when GMAC financed anyone with a pulse.
You forgot the most important benefit; huge bonuses.
How a company screws investors and then a year later recruits more investors to swindle is beyond me.The fraud and deceit on wall street is just amazing.Do not touch that ipo with a 10 foot pole.
To equate this solely with Wall Street is to be uninformed.
How do the AUW and the federal government qualify as “Wall Street”?
Though it could be argued that the line is blurring.
You think the investment houses won’t make a killing off the upcoming IPO?
No doubt.
There are no more investers unless you count dear old aunt Edith and her 1/2% CD.
We’re all GAMBLERS in this brave new Corporate America.
“New shooter coming out….Roll those Dice”
Why does GM keep screwing investors and getting away with it?
“Why does GM keep screwing investors and getting away with it?”
One of the reasons would be that investors can either entertain buying equities, or play it safe and earn a fantastic 00.50% interest on 2 year Treasuries; compliments of the insane ZIRP policy promulgated by the Fed and its criminal minions.
Bingo. Its same reason stocks are clinging to historically high P/E ratios. There’s nowhere else to park the money if you have any hope of a return.
Hey,
This is the 2010 Corporate Military Media Complex America.
They cook the books as well as the news.
“Gimmie two bailouts sunny side-up, some greasy gov’t statistic links and put some good spin on that housing bust toast Sam.”
This is the same game that was used by GM with GMAC, resulting in GM bailout 1.0. And the same will lead to bailout 2.0, 3.0, 4.0…
Why bother doing all the hard work of building cars that people want to buy? Just build junk and dump it on the laps of the uncreditworthy.
“Why bother doing all the hard work of building cars that people want to buy? Just build junk and dump it on the laps of the uncreditworthy.”
Should read:
Why bother building cars that people can actually afford…
Sounds like housing kinda’.
I keep reading that the average new car costs 30K.
Who can afford a 30K car?
I can’t. But I can afford my paid-for bicycles.
We need to raise the driving age to 25, but make teenagers pay a car mandate. Limit driving to those 70 or under, but mandate those no longer able to drive pay a mandate.
Don’t own a car? Pay a mandate! The only way we can lesson the cost of ownership is to increase the pool of people paying into the system that cannot use them
Who can, but doesn’t want to?
$30k buys a lot of living/memories (good food, travel, books, fun stuff). Halfway through my five year experiment of going car-less and I consider it a blessing so far.
“I keep reading that the average new car costs 30K.”
Sure, if you you average every car for sale, then the $1M Bugatti will skew numbers a little. As will Ferrari, Lamborghini, several Porsche models, etc.
A 4 cylinder Accord is less than $20K. A Sentra is under $15K.
You don’t have to spend anywhere near $30K to get a new car.
You don’t have to spend anywhere near $30K to get a new car.
I didn’t say that Edster. I said the average price was 30K. I’m well aware that there are cars that cost less.
Still an average pice of 30K means that they are selling a lot of cars that cost a lot more than 30K, and a few Ferraris and Benzes won’t skew the average that much.
Heck, just go to any car non luxury brand car dealer and you will see tons of 30K+ vehicles onl the lots, especially those mongo pickups and SUVs we Americans are convinced we can’t live without.
Still the question remains: who buys these things? And buy them they do.
Still the question remains: who buys these things?
My vehicle was probably $30k+ when new. Of course I bought it for less than $20k and have since put 120k miles on it…in retrospect, it would have still been a bargain even if I paid significantly more for it…
1) The “HowMuchAMonth” crowd.
2) Since lenders stopped having to bear repayment risk, they lend with little regard to being repaid. The taxpayer foots the bill when the debt bombs explode.
I know of a young guy - around 20 years - who somehow obtained a big new pickup truck. One of the front wheels has been detached, which prevents repo men from towing it, and it sits in his grandmother’s back yard, away from where he lives.
Chevy Volt. +$40,000. The is what most Americans would consider a luxury price. And, it plugs into the wall, so you don’t have to burn gas or diesel in your own neighborhood. You can get power for the 100 mile ride from the power plant that burns coal or oil in someone else’s neighborhood.
That’s America’s “energy future”? Oh, and we need to get lithium or lead for batteries from where?
How about smaller, more fuel efficient automobiles?
Or howzabout just losing the car fixation and using other means of getting around town? If your trip is just a mile or two, you can:
1. Walk
2. Ride your bike
No Slim, you’re supposed to drive the car to the gym, fight for the nearest parking space, and then pay big moolah to the gym/trainer.
Gee whiz, it ain’t exercise if no one sees you doing it!
So, my walks around the nabe don’t count?
edge,
you left out taking the elevator up to the gym to use the stairstep machines.
It’s 95 degrees outside my front door right now with 60% humidity.
Walk or bike 2 miles? Surely you jest.
It’s going up to 105 here today. No matter. I’ll take my walk to the USPS mail drop later on.
Its gotta be even hotter than that inside your house with all of the hot air spewing past your lips.
Riding to work and back just fine today, thanks .. low 90s outside here in New England and high humidity.
A little pedaling is good for you
90% of automobile trips in this country are 5 miles or under .. Mr Gorbachev, climb down from your SUV!
f your trip is just a mile or two, you can:
1. Walk
2. Ride your bike ??
I do almost every day…….
In fact, Professor Bear turned me on to the SoCal Craigs List where I bought my current bike…Gary Fisher Crossover…Sweet looking and real fast…
slim:
You are a dreamer thats for sue…..
We are so far behind on the 2nd ave subway here and how much of that Trillion dollars of shovel ready jobs was used to get this dammm thing built asap…….almost zero.
We should be ashamed at our leaders not even 1 200 mph high speed rail from Boston to miami while china built 4000 miles already
and dont forget that Tibet rail…some places more then 15,000 feet above sea level….our claim to fame
We have the BEST ghetto rappers in the World!
I’d love to have the chance to bike to the Tucson station, put the bike up on a hook, and zip off to hither and yon on high-speed rail. Then, on the other end, I’ll unhook the bike, roll it off the train, and pedal away.
After thirty years of getting their a’s kicked by foreign companies who know how to build affordable, smaller, desirable and more fuel efficient cars, GM still has no idea how to do this.
Ford is getting it.
Getting back to that recent conversation with my colleague, we both thought that Ford has the best chance of surviving.
Always remember that conversation many years ago with a staunch union supporter who was sooo pi$$ed off that I was buying a Honda. ‘Buy American’ was his refrain, irrespective of how well that vehicle ran or lasted.
But to this day still, I can’t buy an American car. Terrible I know, but I suspect I’m not the only one.
Some Chevy Dealers Selling Volt for $61K After Markup, GM Defends MSRP August 4, 2010 9:09 AM
Some dealers looking to take advantage of limited initial supply of Volt EVs
Dealership markup on past vehicles are nothing new — when “Cash for Clunkers” was in full effect last fall, we revealed that some dealers were marking up Toyota’s best-selling Prius hybrids by $4,000 to $5,000.
That markup may be downright tiny, however, compared to what some Chevrolet dealerships have in store. A reporter from Edmunds inquired at a local dealership about the price of the 2011 Chevy Volt electric vehicle and was told that they were going to be charging $61,000 USD for the vehicle ($52,750 after tax credit). That price includes a $20,000 USD markup going directly into the dealer’s pocket.
The dealer writes:
Hello *****
Thank you for your online request, as you know the Volt is going to be a very limited production vehicle for the first 2-3 years. Demand is going to far exceed supply for this vehicle, initially our asking price for the Volt is going to be MSRP plus $20,000, we are expecting only receive 9 Volts all of next year.
9 Volts all of next year.
That reminds me- I need to check the batteries in my smoke detectors…
“9 Volts all of next year.
That reminds me- I need to check the batteries in my smoke detectors…”
Yeah, for sure. Me too.
I definitely think GM is trying to blow some smoke up somebody’s A$$.
Aw, the dealers. The other part of GM’s problems.
I will probably NEVER buy another GM product. I’m driving a 10yo small Ford PU that beats the pants off GM newest small PU in every category. Mileage, comfort, reliability, looks
With the dealers shooting themsleves in the foot with stupid prices, GM is toast.
I wouldn’t buy a volt if you dropped $20K off MSRP.
I wonder if the Volt comes with a string, a key and a kite for emergencies.
They know incomes will not be back. Our WHOLE recovery model continues to be based on debt …
You have a problem with voodoo, er, supply side economics?
They know incomes will not be back ??
From the resent book “reset”….
It used to be that when our economy thrived and productivity grew, pay for working people rose accordingly. But for most of the last decade, that central piece of the American social contract simply stopped operating. People put up with it for the same reason that the great mass of losers in casinos put up with odds that favor the house. The spectacle of a few ecstatic big winners encourages the losers to believe that, hey, them might get lucky and win. In effect we turned the United States into a winner-take-all casino economy, substituting the gambling hall for the factory floor as our governing economic metaphor, an assembly of anxious individual strangers whose fortunes depend overwhelmingly on random luck rather than on productive work in collective enterprises.
Try more like, “…the last 30 years…”
Bought a Toyota Corolla LE made in Japan yesterday for $13,888 verus a Ford Fiesta made in Mexico for $15,560. The Ford dealers were not willing to come down on the price or waive the dealer fee.
After I saw that the drive train was made in Brazil and final assembly in Mexico I went to the Toyota dealer ship that was willing to negotiate. Picked a Corolla with a VIN that starts in “J” for Japan. They tend to be better than the ones made in North America.
If it was me I would be buying an Asian brand finally assembled in the USA by American workers, but not a Toyota.
Toyota’s problem with their accelerator pedal recall is a result of accelerator pedals that are made by CTS in a Canadian factory. Well, that is the official version from Toyota. Some people say the problem of sudden acceleration are a result of glitches in the Toyota engine computers. If the problem really is the engine computers, then Toyota is saving billions of dollars by “repairing” a for lower costing benign problem.
Just like houses, a rush to build more and more units every year has resulted in quality going to hell.
I’m no Toyota fan, but the real cause of unintended acceleration was a loose nut behind the steering wheel.
That seems to be true in the Audi case. From what I’ve heard it may not be true in the Toyota case, though. I work in firmware, I’ve modified ECU code, and I don’t trust ECU controlled throttles. There are a lot of possible corner cases where a code bug might result in WOT, but do it so intermittently that it never gets caught in testing.
One of the co-founders of Apple says that his Prious went WOT and he swears that the accelerator pedal was completely in the zero % home position, implying that the problem is the ECU. Glitches in complex digital systems are very difficult to track down and fix.
The worst case scenario for Toyota’s fix is a complete redesign of ECU’s, and then swapping out millions of these ECU’s. It may come down to that before it is all over.
But sometimes I wonder if the NHTSA is being unusually harsh with Toyota, based on their very favorable treatment of Detroit’s defective iron in past years.
But the point of all of this is the inevitable loss of quality when you go bonkers knocking out the sausages. Toyota’s goal was to be the world’s largest. I think they was building one new factory every quarter or so, and they achieved their goal, but now they are paying the price.
Out for icecream?
Illegal Immigrant Who Killed Nun In Accident Was Released By Feds
The Washington Times ^ | August 2, 2010 | Stephen Dinan
Posted on Monday, August 02, 2010 6:53:04 PM by khnyny
The man suspected of drunken driving and killing a Catholic nun in Prince William County this weekend is an illegal immigrant who was awaiting deportation and who federal immigration authorities had released pending further proceedings, police said Monday.
The man, Carlos Montano, a county resident, had been arrested by police twice before on drunk-driving charges, and on at least one of those occasions county police reported him to federal authorities.
“We have determined that he is in the country illegally. He has been arrested by Prince William County Police in the past,” said Officer Jonathan Perok, a police spokesman, who said U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement was notified at the time of one of those arrests.
Officer Perock said Montano was in deportation proceedings at the time of this weekend’s killing, but was out on his own recognizance.
JS,
Is anyone surprised by this story? It might be legal from the government’s standpoint but its definitely wrong.
The change we were hoping for is coming in Nov and also in 2012. Its going to be a fun political battle for the next few years and its too bad that we can only rely on the Republicans to fix it because too many of them don’t wan to rock the boat.
Lip
I wouldn’t hold my breath. Tweedle-Dum won’t handle things differently from Tweedle-Dee.
“The man suspected of drunken driving and killing a Catholic nun in Prince William County this weekend is an illegal immigrant who was awaiting deportation and who federal immigration authorities had released pending further proceedings, police said Monday.”
Yikes, being an illegal alien, getting stupid drunk and squishing the life out of an innocent Penguin isn’t one of the Mortal Sins but it’s GOT to be a Biggie on someone’s list.
I believe that murder is considered a mortal sin.
Ooops !
LOL.
“innocent Penguin”
LOL, too. Mikey, that was a hoot.
They come here to do the work Americans won’t do? I thought we already had enough drunk drivers. I would be willing to wager that he didn’t have a driver’s license, either. Many don’t. It’s rarely reported.
This story doesn’t say anything about immigration.
It says everything about the danger of the automobile, and the kid glove treatment of those who do not feel a special responsibility to be careful.
There are thousands of stories like this. Including drivers who were not immigrants, and were not drunk — merely yapping on a cellphone, texting, speeding, etc.
A few years ago, a young man was fiddling with his car’s sound system. It was out by Saguaro National Monument East, and the roads are pretty narrow.
Anyway, while he wasn’t paying attention, he struck a lady who was out for a jog with her toddler daughter. The child was in one of those baby jogger-strollers.
The kid drove on, oblivious to what had happened. He finally turned himself in, oh, two weeks later.
Guy was born and raised in Tucson, and the family’s HVAC business is pretty close to where I live.
an illegal immigrant who was awaiting deportation………..
it does say something about immigration, particularly illegal.
The press doesn’t report stories that happen everyday about drunken mexicans driving without licenses, and being let go, without prosecution, changing drivers, getting tickets to report to court and not showing up. I have personally seen a girlfriend’s mother and aunt permanently disabled by a drunken mexican. My car was backed into one at a club in Tampa, and witnesses described the “hispanic” man and the truck that fled the scene. I also have a friend in Jacksonville who had been hit. The mexican driver didn’t have a driver’s license or insurance card (required in florida), but was let go. The officer didn’t want to start an incident. my friend was outraged. It’s Jacksonville policy.
btw, he is an Obama supporter and didn’t have much concern over rampant illegal immigration until recent events have made him see the light on a more personal basis. He’s turning fast.
The following information is compiled from Federal Bureau of Investigation and Department of Homeland Security reports:
•71% plus of all apprehended cars stolen in 2005 in Texas, New Mexico, Arizona, Nevada and California were stolen by Illegal aliens or ”transport coyotes”.
•47% of cited/stopped drivers in California have no license, no insurance and no registration for the vehicle. Of that 47%, 92% are illegal aliens.
•63% of cited/stopped drivers in Arizona have no license, no insurance and no registration for the vehicle. Of that 63%, 97% are illegal aliens
•66% of cited/stopped drivers in New Mexico have no license, no insurance and no registration for the vehicle. Of that 66% 98% are illegal aliens.
Yes, but what’s the actual #? 71% of what? 10?
The Tucson sector Border Patrol union local 2544 on the number of illegal aliens in our nation: “There are currently 15 to 20 million illegal aliens in this country by many estimates, but the real numbers could be much higher.
15 to 20 million illegal aliens in this country, so I am guessing the # of cited/stopped drivers in that have no license, no insurance and no registration for the vehicle is and are illegal aliens higher than 10.
I recommend your friend file an internal affairs complaint against the officer…and let them decide….at least the officer will have it on his record ….
The officer didn’t want to start an incident. my friend was outraged. It’s Jacksonville policy.
A lot crimes committed in this country are done by repeat offenders.
I knew a guy who had 6 DWIs. He didn’t live to get his 7th. He OD’d.
More oxygen for the rest of us.
Eco:
He kept driving and that is the problem, the ACLU wont allow us to impound the car for 6 months a year and let him and his family suffer.
Most repeat offenders are poor..And cannot just run out and buy another car to drive….again the ACLU will say its discrimination..
NYC panel clears way for mosque near ground zero
By KAREN MATTHEWS The Associated Press
Posted: 3:09 a.m. Tuesday, Aug. 3, 2010
NEW YORK — A city panel Tuesday cleared the way for the construction near ground zero of a mosque that has caused a political uproar over religious freedom and Sept. 11 even as opponents vowed to press their case in court.
The Landmarks Preservation Commission voted unanimously to deny landmark status to a building two blocks from the World Trade Center site that developers want to tear down and convert into an Islamic community center and mosque. The panel said the 152-year-old lower Manhattan building isn’t distinctive enough to be considered a landmark.
The decision drew praise from Mayor Michael Bloomberg, who stepped before cameras on Governor’s Island with the Statue of Liberty as a backdrop shortly after the panel voted and called the mosque project a key test of Americans’ commitment to religious freedom.
“The World Trade Center site will forever hold a special place in our city, in our hearts,” said Bloomberg, a Republican turned independent. “But we would be untrue to the best part of ourselves, and who we are as New Yorkers and Americans, if we said no to a mosque in lower Manhattan.”
The vote was a setback for opponents of the mosque, who say it disrespects the memory of those killed at the hands of Islamic terrorists on Sept. 11, 2001. Jeers and shouts of “Shame on you” could be heard after the panel’s vote.
If I may play the devil’s advocate here for a minute, I think that the mosque in lower Manhattan will not be the terrible thing that opponents are making it out to be.
After all, there’s this huge industry in the neighborhood called the financial industry. And it employs more than a few, ahem, Muslims. If they’re religious, they go to the mosque to pray during the day.
And, BTW, I have Muslim friends. If they’re over at my house and need to go into a separate room to pray, they’re more than welcome to do so.
Well, I have to disagree most strongly with you, Slim. I think it is gross. It’s rubbing people’s nose in it and it is, at the very least, insensitive. There’s no need for that. That Muslims would push issue shows who they are. There are plenty of other places to build mosques, I’m sure.
OTOH, that New York would permit it, then it deserves what comes. Just don’t go asking our young men and women to commit to dying and being injured in hellholes around the world for the likes of Bloomberg and the financial and other industries.
What a complete puking joke. I had (past tense) a Muslim friend at one time. Things were OK until she started ragging on me and others for being a “blasphemer”. And got really nasty about it.
Prior to the 9/11/01 attack, the worst terrorist attack in U.S. history was the Oklahoma attack. The perpetrators were also fundamentalists, but not of the Islamic variety. I wonder if the Oklahoma City officials banned churches from their downtown area.
OK, folks, then why not take up a collection and send flowers to the mullahs over in Iran who want to stone that lady for “adultery”? I’m sure it will be appreciated. After all, this religion is all about peace and equality, no? Oh, and did you know that some Muslim men use this “adultery” accusation scam to get rid of spouses of whom they tire?
Oh, that’s just crazy fundamentalists, you say. Well, how come it is government sanctioned?
Islam is a theocracy. Period.
Maybe an American will blow it up.
BTW, I hate Religion. It’s like a computer virus of the mind, but self installed.
It’s like a computer virus of the mind, but self installed.
Awesome.
“BTW, I hate Religion. It’s like a computer virus of the mind, but self installed”
Yeah, there are so many of the “true” religions out there that it used to confuse me. I was really scared of making a big eternal mistake. That’s some serious stuff.
So that’s why I drink Jack Daniels and pretend that I’m a card carrying pagan Druid.
It keeps my head clear and I have no guilt trips.
BTW, I hate Religion. It’s like a computer virus of the mind, but self installed.
Does the mean that you hate “society” too because it’s like cracked piston of a Ford?
Religion: Society is built on the foundations of the culture’s shared experiences (history). Religion gives a structure to share beliefs and concepts with. It has a large impact on our history and current events (e.g. the Middle East could not be separated from Religion). It even changes our language (e.g. graceful comes from the Christian concept of “Grace filled”). With the combination of religion providing a shared structure for conceptualization, history, current events, and language, our modern society is heavily influenced by religion. wikianswers
No, it’s installed by your parents.
OR #2
When you are ready to commit suicide and some Hare Krisha, or jesus freak or a jew, or whatever comes along to help you will follow them
I think approving this is a wonderful “f u” to Osama Bin Laden. He WANTS American Muslims to feel isolated and ostracized. People who lump American Muslims in with the terrorists play right into his hands.
“The Kuwaiti-born Rauf, 52, is the imam of a mosque in New York City’s Tribeca district, has written extensively on Islam and its place in modern society and often argues that American democracy is the embodiment of Islam’s ideal society. (One of his books is titled What’s Right with Islam Is What’s Right with America.)”
Read more: http://www.time.com/time/nation/article/0,8599,2008432,00.html#ixzz0velLY9sk
I think approving this is a wonderful “f u” to Osama Bin Laden.
I love it!
Spare me.
Slim:
you know my position its not the Muslims its their religion that’s evil… we should have had the mother of all religious Jihads after 9/11 thousands of mosques destroyed at haj
This is why we will never win in Iraq of afghan….we are aiming at the wrong targets.
PS Looking back Russia did the same thing …and did they win?
WTC site realtor: “…and they are not making any more terrorist-cleared land…”
Note to Justice Jackson: It turns out that the Constitution is actually a suicide pact.
I think Mayor Bloomberg made the right call - government should stay away from this hot potato. HOWEVER, I cannot imagine this Mosque being anything but a lightning rod for every hate group and domestic terrorist organization which makes me wonder why anyone would build it there in the first place.
If I heard correctly its already there and has been for a very long time…They just want to build a new one…
Too bad I read and post late in the day…I missed moral equivalency day on the HBB.
My concern with the mosque at Ground Zero is how a young foreign jihadist will perceive it. It can only be seen as a great victory compounding a great victory. It can only be encouragement.
There are those who believe it will send a message of tolerance and cooperation. But jihadists slaughter other Muslims with abandon, for being just slightly different in their beliefs.
We need to be respectful of other religions, certainly, but there are unintended consequences to allowing a mosque at Ground Zero.
We need to be respectful of other religions
You’re assuming that ‘we’ have a religion….we don’t.
It’s simple, progressives fear the radical islamists, hence the genuflection by Mayor Bloomberg and other progressives at the islamist apologist altar. I mean, what progressive wants to increase their chances of being blown up?
Progressives are afraid? Sounds like you’re so afraid you won’t bother to move past your stereotype that all Muslims are radicals.
Neuro:
see my comments above, being respectful of other religions is why we will never win in iraq of afghan…
The Taliban are right on this issue…
Aug 4, 12:51 AM (ET)
By DAVID A. LIEB
JEFFERSON CITY, Mo. (AP) - Missouri voters on Tuesday overwhelmingly rejected a key provision of President Barack Obama’s health care law, sending a clear message of discontent to Washington and Democrats less than 100 days before the midterm elections.
About 71 percent of Missouri voters backed a ballot measure, Proposition C, that would prohibit the government from requiring people to have health insurance or from penalizing them for not having it.
_____________
WOW!! 71% of Missorians must be racist.
Shhh…Americans love ObamaCare. It’s a done deal….no reason to report any rumblings of discontent. The MSM doesn’t. Why should you?
P.S. -
Maybe we can borrow some needle and thread from that guy in Sweden. Go to the hospital - sew up your own leg.
ObamaCare 2018 - The Ultimate Do-It-Yourself Kit.
Better curry favor now with your local seamstress.
Yes, they are “racists”. It’s clear by the racial makeup of the State:
Key Indicators Total White Black Hispanic Asian
Population 4,632,578 3,888,907 496,788 102,685 69,553
Missouri, as of 2007 was still mostly white, in fact, they are over 80% white, which shows that a number of white folks favor the federal takeover of the nation’s health industry.
But clearly, this is racism at work. California won’t pass a similar law.
Great. A nice experiment.
It will be interesting to see what the differences will be between MO and states that have not rejected the provision.
It will be interesting to see what the differences will be between MO and states that have not rejected the provision.
don’t we already have that comparison with MA and the rest of the states?
Keep stoking the fire. That’s good. You must NOT be a parent, or you would know rule number one. IGNORE UNWANTED BEHAVIOR. If you are sick and tired of people using the race card, why do YOU keep bringing it up?
ignore unwanted behavior is a rule? I’ve heard of a lot of new-agey child rearing, but I’ve always heard that unwanteed behavior should be corrected immediately and with no unclear terms that it will not be tolerated. This could include putting the child in the curner to be by themselves, aka deprivation punishment, but a screaming child ignored by parents in the grocery store is one of those things I thought everyone was complaining about these days.
The only thing that will go away if you ignore it is your teeth.
Three words: cry it out.
If you start ignoring behavior early enough, they never get to the”crying in the store” stage. My kids never cried in the store. They remembered from crib days that I ignore crying.
“WOW!! 71% of Missorians must be racist.”
Yes Virginia, there really IS a Missouri.
ADP reports 42K gain in private sector hiring. Futures have erased losses and are positive now.
Priceline reported big numbers. Not surprising to anyone who has traveled this summer. Flights and hotels booked solid everywhere I’ve been in the past few months.
I can’t believe PCLN is $270. I sold my holdings when it was around $75. Still made a decent profit, but damn.
I wouldnt buy this stock.It reminds me of the .com days.The business model is too easy to repeat.There are lots of these online travel deals.Buy a company with dividends, has a unique niche that is hard to compete with, has a history of earnings.
most importantly, my stepson was hired yesterday with 14 others.
Congratulations. I hope he enjoys his new job.
Questions:
1. How many of these jobs are full-time and how many are part-time?
2. Unemployment insurance is running out for a lot of people so how much effect does this have on ADP’s numbers, meaning are these jobs demand driven by an increase in business activity or are they supply driven by an increase in desperate workers?
Back to question 1: If these job numbers are driven by an increase of desperate workers, how many of these workers are getting two or more low-paying part time jobs in an attempt to replace a good-paying full-time job they lost some time ago?
The only entity i’ve seen hiring is the govt.
I suppose that its regional. I imagine that near DC jobs are “plentiful”. Out here in the Centennial State, in spite of our officially low UE rate (~8%) jobs are hard to come by.
My own opinion is that many employers are slow to hire based on fear of the double dip.
As such, with respect to the job numbers, it is almost irrelevant as to whether they are caused by desperate workers or not. What matters is that increasing job creation will lead to more job creation. In fact, this was the only good argument for not extending benefits past 99 weeks.
Said another way, if you force all the workers back to work who were optimizing their situation (people who call it funemployment, living in mom’s basement, not taking jobs that only pay them $2-3 more per hour than unemployment, etc.), it may improve the job market for the rest of the unemployed.
I’m pretty sure you can’t force people back to jobs… that don’t exist.
Eco:
Look at it this way the Jobs do exist..there are millions of jobs that exist…but most people cannot afford to work for free or as an “intern” anymore…let alone the age discrimination..must be a recent grad or must be in school.
So we have to couple collecting unemployment and welfare benefits to these jobs…..they layoff teachers assistants, well how hard is it to grade papers for your check if you have a college degree?
But herein lies the problem, in order for us and the unemployed to get the most benefit from this…you have to try and match a job to what is on the resume….what good is it for me to be picking up trash when i could be working for a public radio or tv station? And padding the resume and upgrading my skills.
Anyone who knows even basic accounting knows how easy it is to cook the books…. legally. People are not buying equities based on financial statements. It’s complete herd mentality led by insiders/institutional buyers that pump and dump.
It’s ALL pump-n-dump. The trick is to find the exceptions or be in on the “pump” side and out on the “dump” side.
ADP reports 42K gain in private sector hiring ??
23% above the whisper number…Other company’s reporting strong earnings above estimate…
Market went up 200 points on Monday. Coincidence ?
Most of the Fortune 1000 seem to be doing well. They just aren’t hiring. Why should they? Profits and a reduced work force? Corporate heaven.
There HAVE also been rumors of bottlenecks from slowly increasing demand. We’ll know in few more months if there’s going to be a double dip or just a plateau because if it’s going to ramp up, it will be by the end of the year or not until next spring.
If GM goes into Deadbeat Financing…
3. Obama annouces “Deadbeats Deserve free Coffee, Donuts and a bailout”
Fannie and Freddy Forclosure Barons
How the federal housing agencies—and some of the biggest bailed-out banks—are helping shady lawyers make millions by pushing families out of their homes.
LATE ONE NIGHT IN February 2009, Ariane Ice sat poring over records on the website of Florida’s Palm Beach County. She’d been at it for weeks, forsaking sleep to sift through thousands of legal documents. She and her husband, Tom, an attorney, ran a boutique foreclosure defense firm called Ice Legal. (Slogan: “Your home is your castle. Defend it.”) Now they were up against one of Florida’s biggest foreclosure law firms: Founded by multimillionaire attorney David J. Stern, it controlled one-fifth of the state’s booming market in foreclosure-related services. Ice had a strong hunch that Stern’s operation was up to something, and that night she found her smoking gun.
It involved something called an “assignment of mortgage,” the document that certifies who owns the property and is thus entitled to foreclose on it. Especially these days, the assignment is key evidence in a foreclosure case: With so many loans having been bought, sold, securitized, and traded, establishing who owns the mortgage is hardly a trivial matter. It frequently requires months of sleuthing in order to untangle the web of banks, brokers, and investors, among others. By law, a firm must execute (complete, sign, and notarize) an assignment before attempting to seize somebody’s home.
A Florida notary’s stamp is valid for four years, and its expiration date is visible on the imprint. But here in front of Ice were dozens of assignments notarized with stamps that hadn’t even existed until months—in some cases nearly a year—after the foreclosures were filed. Which meant Stern’s people were foreclosing first and doing their legal paperwork later. In effect, it also meant they were lying to the court—an act that could get a lawyer disbarred or even prosecuted. “There’s no question that it’s pervasive,” says Tom Ice of the backdated documents—nearly two dozen of which were verified by Mother Jones. “We’ve found tons of them.”
More….
http://motherjones.com/politics/2010/07/david-stern-djsp-foreclosure-fannie-freddie
Don’t Wait: The Time To Buy Is Now
By Michael Drotman
RE/MAX Execs
Manhattan Beach, Calif.
You may have heard or read advice that suggests you should wait until next year to buy a home because prices are likely to go even lower than they are now.
That may or may not be true. But even supposing prices do decline further, will it really benefit you to delay your purchase? There are exceptional values available right now in many markets on homes and investment properties. Combine these great values with the low monthly payments provided by extremely low interest rates, and it becomes clear that there’s no real advantage to waiting.
Let’s explore the issue:
No one knows what’s going to happen with prices - or when. It’s possible these may be the lowest prices ever, and the still-low interest rates will keep your monthly payments affordable.
Let’s say prices go down in the next year. How long do you plan to be in the home you buy now? Three years? Five years? Ten years or more? Unless you plan to sell next year, it’s irrelevant whether prices go up or down in the next 12 months.
The most important question to ask yourself is this: Do you think prices for homes in your area will go up or down during the time you plan to own the home? History suggests that in most areas, prices of homes tend to increase over time.
What if prices go down, but interest rates go up? Even if homes are priced lower, your monthly payment may be higher for the same home, or homes in the same price range.
If you have a home to sell before buying, everything is relative. Yes, it’s possible the price of the home you want to purchase may be less next year - but if it is, the value of the home you are selling will be lower also. This means you will have less equity to use as a down payment, and thus a higher loan amount, when purchasing your next home. This could equate to a higher monthly mortgage payment.
The reality is that, in many markets, you can buy a lot of home for the money, with low monthly payments, right now.
Did you ever notice how RE/MAX reminds one of Ream/Max?
They have some very cheesy commercials on tv right now.I want to puke when I see the ceo prancing around saying its a great time to buy as usual.
RE/MAX brokers are independent…Meaning, they are their own boss…Nobody oversee’s or sign’s off on anything they do unlike most brokerage firms..
ReMax is no different than other franchises, it really has to do w/ state law. You can’t be an “independent” per se, if you aren’t licensed as at Broker. In Ca for instance, an Agent doesn’t have the legal status (or liability) of a Broker. An Agent works for the Broker, as a 1099 employee, in reality.Each state has different licensing and real estate laws. I’m in Ca, and have taken my Brokers ed. I already hold my Salesperson’s license aka Agent License, and must hang it under a Broker,a franchise like ReMax, or a small mom and pop office.
ReMax advertising is misleading, in my opinion. I’ve interviewed them as an option “to hang with” in Ca.
ReMax is no different than other franchises ??
Well, they “are” a franchise but they “are” much different then your typical “body factory” that you have with other Franchises..Most are “single broker” entities meaning they have no agents working under them…Thats what I meant by “Independent” and they are the decision maker because they are the principal broker…
An Agent works for the Broker, as a 1099 employee, in reality ??
Absolutely not !!…Sales Agents working for the principal broker are “independent contractors” working under the brokers license…Although they get a 1099 from the principal broker for the commissions that they receive the broker “is not” required to conform to the Fed & State withholding laws nor the workman’s comp reg’s…They “are not” employees…
scdave,
I think we are not in snic with semantics. Too me, my EE husband, who is 1099 is a true independent contractor, answers to no one, makes up his own rules, and is free to make his own decisions, without any Corp stuff, or sign any agreements (other than w/ clients).
If you have to follow certain rules, show up at meetings, and aren’t free to make your own decisions (corp umbrella and fees/% of commission), then I don’t think you’re truly an independent contractor.
As I said, semantics.
There are Broker Associates and Brokers. Many Brokers open their own “shops” or buy a franchiase, Associates usually work for a franchise as a Broker Associate.
Strong Brokers usually hold many other licenses and designations from the state.
then I don’t think you’re truly an independent contractor ??
Nope…
You will sign a contract with any principal broker you go work under (See I said “work under” and not “work for”)…That contract you sign will stipulate that you are a independent contractor…The E&O insurance will cover you as a independent contractor…There is no “blurry line” it is clear cut…You also can come and go freely to another broker if you choose…All it takes is a phone call to the DRE followed by a new associate application from the new broker you have chosen…
“No one knows what’s going to happen with prices - or when.”
Ummm, yeah. And exactly what is it about such uncertainty that is supposed to give people the confidence to make the largest purchase of their lives?
This is an out and out call to gamble. Trouble is this guy is trying to sell pull tabs on the Vegas Strip at 5 a.m.
1. Unless you plan to sell next year, it’s irrelevant whether prices go up or down in the next 12 months. WRONG - it is not irrelevant if I can buy a comparable house for less money in the next 12 months.
2. Do you think prices for homes in your area will go up or down during the time you plan to own the home? WRONG - the most important question is if something unexpected goes wrong, do I have an exit strategy.
3.What if prices go down, but interest rates go up? Even if homes are priced lower, your monthly payment may be higher for the same home, or homes in the same price range.
If you have a home to sell before buying, everything is relative. Yes, it’s possible the price of the home you want to purchase may be less next year - but if it is, the value of the home you are selling will be lower also. This means you will have less equity to use as a down payment, and thus a higher loan amount, when purchasing your next home. This could equate to a higher monthly mortgage payment.
The reality is that, in many markets, you can buy a lot of home for the money, with low monthly payments, right now.
sorry it sent before i was done editing
I don’t think I found one accurate statement in what he had to say.
1. Unless you plan to sell next year, it’s irrelevant whether prices go up or down in the next 12 months. WRONG - I would rather pay less in a few months.
2. The most important question to ask yourself is this: Do you think prices for homes in your area will go up or down during the time you plan to own the home? WRONG - the most important question is - if something unexpected happens do you have an exit strategy.
3. What if prices go down, but interest rates go up? Even if homes are priced lower, your monthly payment may be higher for the same home, or homes in the same price range. FORGOT TO ADD - but you may have to sell at a loss and those that paid lower principal and higher interest rates may be able to refi at lower rates in the future.
4. If you have a home to sell before buying, everything is relative. Yes, it’s possible the price of the home you want to purchase may be less next year - but if it is, the value of the home you are selling will be lower also. EVER HEAR OF RENTING?
The reality is that, in many markets, you can buy a lot of home for the money, with low monthly payments, right now. EXCEPT COMPARED TO ANY PERIOD PRIOR TO 2002.
Very good. As usual excellently put.
In my opinion prices will never be low enough for me in California. Sure- they came down some in the Bay Area, but I think reality has sunk in and prices are still obscenely high. I’ve saved up enough to buy a house elsewhere and as soon as the job market picks up a bit we’re packin’ some bags and heading to TX.
“No one knows what’s going to happen with prices - or when.”
and, then later,
“History suggests that in most areas, prices of homes tend to increase over time.”
thereby suggesting, that even though we don’t know what will happen to prices, they will go up. It’s just a matter of time.
But what if they fall or stay flat for 10 years???
Houses cost money to maintain, and have tax and insurance liabilities.
So, if the price doesn’t go up, what is the advantage to buying over renting? None. It’s a losing proposition. You might need to fork out money for a new roof before you sell.
For those of us buying a sensible “toe tag” home with cash, buying makes sense. When we do that, our monthly out go will be livable when we are old. Everyone needs to evaluate their own needs and if it makes sense to buy a home.
At the CU yesterday, an employee thought paying cash for a home didn’t make sense, because you loose the right off. LOL
At the CU yesterday, an employee thought paying cash for a home didn’t make sense, because you loose the right off.
Methinks that the employee was miffed because the cash buyer wouldn’t be taking out a loan.
I thought that too, until she asked what an amorization table was. She asked why I thought an ARM was bad. I almost feel off my summer wedges. She’s in Management. BTW, it’s “write off”. Excuse me you guys/gals, it’s my “mental-pause”. I am not fuctioning well today.
Most people have no clue that the tax write off isn’t a writeoff unless you a) make a lot of money and b) have a really big mortgage.
About 70% of tax returns are not itemzied which means only 30% of people (assuming all of them own a mortgage) actually get any benefit from the mortgage tax deduction.
Paying cash is a bad idea IMO because you are tying up a lot of money when you don’t have to. Getting a 4% loan that is 3% after the deduction for a $250K house (again assuming a and b from above apply) is a better bet than tying up $250K in a house. Chances are pretty good that in the next 15 years you will get a better rate of return than 4%. Plus just having the $250K available, even if you’re making only 2% has value in and of itself.
“lose” not “loose”. “Loose”, would be my 26 year old niece. LOL
“lose” not “loose”. “Loose”, would be my 26 year old niece. LOL
Write on!
“Unless you plan to sell next year, it’s irrelevant whether prices go up or down in the next 12 months.”
Paying less for something is irrelevant?
Heck, even 5% in a place like Manhattan Beach means quite a few federal reserve notes.
Michelle is in Spain now. She flew there on AF2 (think of all the carbon emitted) and she and her entourage have booked 60 - yes sixty - rooms at a 5 star resort.
And yet her husband will undoubtedly give a speech today saying how it is imperative tax rates increase because we’re broke.
Even monarchies aren’t this brazen.
It’s almost as if Barak and Michelle don’t care what we think.
It’s almost as if Barak and Michelle don’t care what we think.
Ding. ding. ding………..winner. You get the prize.
And sense the “press” always reports everything they do as a wonderful thing, no matter how expensive or how wasteful, they won’t get criticized. Just praised. All hail, Obama.
People should be outraged.
The thing that I like about all this is that the Obamas are black and they get to do all these cool and powerful things that white Presidents always did. A lot of us never thought we’d see a black president in our lives but thank goodness we got to. We should be very proud of that.
I mean think about it. We have the first Black President in our history. And he carries himself like a very self-assured, confident, powerful world leader and he makes America look good in the eyes of much of the world that had written us off as ignorant and kind of racist, extreme, fascist nutballs.
I also like that President Obama never acts like he’s inferior to anyone because he knows that black people are the equal of whites and him being elected proved it.
America has come a long way.
Now he just needs to figure out how to lead a country.
I mean think about it. We have the first Black President in our history.
by that you mean 1/2 black, 1/2 white, right?
And you’re okay with the fact that part of the reason he’s president is solely because he’s black - you know, those people who voted for him just because they wanted to see the first black president???
No, this country has not come a long way. Racism is alive and well. Sure, many voted for him because they felt he was the best choice. Others voted for him not because of the content of his character, but instead the color of his skin…
Ryo,
You’re almost as boring as Why50Dodge. He drones on about Bush. You drone on about Barry’s color. As I have said umpteen times….I hate BHO’s white half as much as I hate his black half. And black, white, purple or pink, a first lady booking 60 rooms at a resort in Spain is absurd.
Rio:
He will be the last for 30 years ….we will see an Asian or Indian president before another of his color…just like David Dinkins here total screw up, but we had to have some racial diversity…..
“I also like that President Obama never acts like he’s inferior to anyone…”
Pause……..
Sorry, had to reset my BS meter. I have never before seen in my lifetime, a poorer presidential example of projected strength than the mighty O. When I see this clown bowing before the Saudi king or Japanese prime minister it truly makes me sick. Now I know our country is a shell of it’s former self and we are beholden to some foreign entities, in theory, due to our foreign debt. But to say he is a strong leader, blah, blah, blah is stretching the boundaries of truth.
He is a well polished teleprompter reader. An empty suit. Just like all the rest of them.
Not picking on you Rio. We just disagree on this point.
.I hate BHO’s white half as much as I hate his black half. Eddie
People feel this hate thing coming from you Eddie, in a lot of your posts. Hate is not worth it.
Try not hating so many things Eddie and then, not as many people on this blog would hate you.
People should be outraged.
Outraged..outraged I say !
Not hiding under their pointy hoods or merely sobbing on their little GOP pillows.
Did I mention that there are colored people in the White House ?
You really have a thing for the Obamas, dude!
Your Obama trauma is showing again.
Your Obama trauma ?
+1…Good one…
Let them eat tapas.
Mmmmmm! Me gusta tapas!
Well, when you live amidst the three highest household-income generating counties in the USA, you have to be grandiose to out-do the Jones.
I wonder how many people in New Orleans and along the Gulf Coast could have used the money now being spent in Spain.
BTW, the first lady spends more than $1 million annually on hair, makeup and pedicures.
How much did Nancy Reagan spend on White House china? $2,500?
What were you expecting? The Obama family has always been trash.
“What were you expecting? The Obama family has always been trash”
Sarah,
The term “trash” which you mindlessly through out, would be a major promotion, if applied to any of the family criminals, hoodlums and associated thugs of the Bush Dynasty.
Geez Sarah, that kinda attitude was representative once before when there was a Chic-a-go (Non-Hawaiian) Muslim-Socialist trying to live peacefully with his family in Oak Park IL.
“Around 1950 Julian moved his family from Chicago to the suburb of Oak Park, Illinois, where the Julian’s were the first African-American family. Although some residents welcomed them into the community, there was also opposition by some. Their home was fire-bombed on Thanksgiving Day, 1950, before they moved in. After the Julians had moved to Oak Park, the house was attacked with dynamite on June 12, 1951.
During his lifetime he received more than 130 chemical patents. Julian was one of the first African Americans to receive a doctorate in chemistry. He was the first African-American chemist inducted into the National Academy of Sciences, and the second African-American scientist inducted from any field.”
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Percy_Lavon_Julian
I found your comment racist. Why do you assume because I think his family is trash it has anything to do with their skin color or ethnic background? It might have a little more to do with their unethical and destructive behavior (e.g., affiliations with Acorn, unions and religous and political hate groups; their stance on taxes, cap and trade, fin regs, healthcare, etc., which attempt to rob this Country of what made it great, destroy jobs, and lower our standard of living; their unabashed partying and obsession with bling; their exploitation of minorities for power; their constant use of the race card to get ahead rather than substance; their constant need for media attention and desire to be labled “cool” etc., etc., etc.).
Eddie, what a“TrueHaskell™”
BWAHAHHAHAHAHHAHAHHAHHAHAHAHHHHHHHHHHHHH!!! (fpss™)
George W. Shrub: The War President is Missing in Action:
Air Force 1 to Tayhos x 77 with security detail…cost? $$$$$$$$$$:
FactCheck org:
“President George W. Bush spent even more time away from the presidential mansion in the nation’s capital than Reagan. Of the 77 total “vacation” trips the former president made to his Texas ranch while in office, nine of them — all or part of 69 days — came during his first year as president in 2001, according to Knoller.”
“On Thursday, Bush left for a weekend in Kennebunkport, Maine, and his family’s summer compound, Walker’s Point. On Monday, he heads to his Crawford retreat, where he has spent all or part of 418 days of his presidency, according to Mark Knoller, a CBS News White House correspondent and meticulous record-keeper.
“…The presidential vacation-time record holder is the late Ronald Reagan, who tallied 436 days in his two terms. At 418 days, and with 17 months to go in his presidency, Bush is going to beat that easily.”
“President Bush will cut short his vacation to return to Washington on Wednesday, [August 31st,] two days earlier than planned, to help monitor federal efforts to assist victims of Hurricane Katrina,” the Associated Press reported
George W. Bush is today making his final visit to Camp David as president.
He will likely miss the place: According to CBS News White House Correspondent Mark Knoller, today’s trip marks Mr. Bush’s 149th visit to the presidential retreat. The planned three-day stay, during which the president is being joined by family and former and current aides, will bring his total time spent at Camp David to all or part of 487 days.
Yes, that’s 487 days. And Camp David is not even where the president has spent the most time when not at the White House: Knoller reports that Mr. Bush has made 77 visits to his ranch in Crawford during his presidency, and spent all or part of 490 days there.
Thank god that he didn’t work those 487 days. He might have invaded a country or two more. Or might have bailed out few more banks.
The funny thing is Obama is surpassing Bush with his vacations, concerts and golfs, etc. It’s a race to the bottom.
Your comparing the former Republican Presidential trips to Camp David and home, which have no costs except for flights, to world-wide travel at exclusive resorts for the extremely rich?
You’re funny. Looking for anything to say that this outrageous vacation spending by the Obama’s is no different or less aggregious than similar republican trips.
If the Obama’s went back to Chicago for a few weeks at a time, I don’t think this would be much of story. How can you compare trips to Camp David or Crawford, Texas (home), to a trip by the wife and one child to a luxury resort, while taking 60 rooms for a few friends.
I read an article. Rooms start at 212 british pounds per night. That’s somewhere between 400 and 450 dollars, per night, per room, and their’s were probably more. Lets say 60 x 400 = $24,000 per day. Just for rooms. The Obama’s spend our money more wastefully than any royalty would consider.
King Louis wouldn’t have had the nerve.
Neither would any republican president.
And compare that to Our Feckless Leader who is on his plane daily giving some lame speech somewhere in this country. Why doesn’t he just stay home and take care of business rather than flying around giving speeches trying to convince us that he’s taking care of business?
Oh, wait, that’s all he knows how to do.
Hummm…
Maybe he should rent an aircraft carrier, wear a flight jacket and a codpiece and proclaim “Mission Accomplished” throughout the Land?
Don’t confuse them with facts Hwy…
Camp David = 487 days
Tayhos Ranch = 490 days
Total = 977 days
Typical year in the US = 365 days
x77 Air Force 1 flights + security & 486 bags of pretzels complete with homeland security ice packs…priceless!
Even if you’re right and W wasted a lot of time and money as Pres, how does this make what Obama/Michele is doing okay?
Jesus dude, Bush has been out of office for almost 2 years. Can’t you get some new material? You’ve become rather boring with the same Shrub/Cheney stuff.
“Jesus dude, Bush has been out of office for almost 2 years. Can’t you get some new material? You’ve become rather boring with the same Shrub/Cheney stuff.”
What can we say Crazy Eddie?
The GOP is the gift that never stops giving. We teach the kiddie’s about these legends on cold, dark winter nights all huddled around a small lump of burning coal to starve off their hunger and get them asleep.
The grand and noble deeds of the Nixon’s, the RayGun’s and the “Deciders” will always cling to your scrawny necks like the the stench of that long dead Albatross.
(kindly stand a little…downwind please)
Come January 1, 2011, about 20-40 million more Americans will adopt negative views of Obama. Millions have no idea what’s in store because “only the rich will see their taxes increased”.
Make that January 15 (or January 30) when the masses see their newly revised paychecks.
I don’t want to get into this. Since I have a low or no expectation from Obama, none of these surprise me.
Last weekend was more interesting. Clinton daughter’s wedding. Compare that to Bush daughter wedding while father was still the president. Old money vs new money.
Obama and Clinton are all the reason I could never be a democrat.
Bush turned me off from republicans. I am all good now. Recently changed my party registration to libertarian.
changed my party registration to libertarian ??
Changed mine to Independent after the 2000 election…30 year registered republican before that…
I grew up in a Republican household. Watergate pretty well finished me on that party.
Any-hoo, I was a registered Democrat before I changed to Independent back in 1992. Been an Indie ever since.
The First Lady is living in your empty skull….. rent-free.
In fairness, our Presidency has come a long way from 1776, when the fledgling U.S.A. moved to break with the British monarchy. I fail to see the Obamas as some how breaking with recent tradition in the White House.
“I fail to see the Obamas as some how breaking with recent tradition in the White House.”
+1. I, for one, am really tired of this Reps vs Dems, Bush vs Obama crapola. Both parties are equally disgusting and both parties have become peopled with depraved parasites.
For example, John Boehner (does anyone really believe his name was originally pronounced “Bay-ner”? More likely it was pronounced Boner or Beaner and he didn’t like the opportunities for ridicule that went with those options) who is currently braying “Where’s the jobs, Mr. President?” This from a complete hypocritical ass who enthusiastically voted for NAFTA, CAFTA and a whole host of bills that hollowed out the job market in this country. I puke on his shoes.
However, I do like Senator Jim Webb. He’s been in both parties. By now I’m sure he finds both equally distasteful for a man who is basically principled.
However, I do like Senator Jim Webb ??
I sent him money during his campaign…
And his book, A Time to Fight, is one of the best politician-authored books I’ve read in a long time.
I too sent Webb a contribution. I must read his book. Didn’t know he wrote one.
Both parties are equally disgusting and both parties have become peopled with depraved parasites.
Rightio!
Like most other american’s, Obamas want to get is theirs while they can.
“TrueHaskell™” he’s the President of America currently involved in x2 foreign Wars, I bet even Cheney signed it!:
http://my.barackobama.com/page/content/barackbirthday?source=OM_LB_google_BarackBirthday-content_flotus&gclid=CNmc6-2NoKMCFQkjawodOB4-mA
Michelle is in Spain now.
I’m sure the people you get your talking points from were all over the expensive trips Laura Bush took, as well.
“Since 1977, each incumbent First Lady has made numerous foreign trips, both with their husbands and on their own.
“Nancy Reagan attended the wedding of Prince Charles to Diane Spencer in London, England, in July 1981. Barbara Bush led the U.S. delegation attending the inauguration of the president of Costa Rica in May of 1989.
“Hillary Rodham Clinton attended the United Nations Fourth World Conference on Women in Beijing, China, giving a strong policy speech that rebuked the host nation’s violations of women’s and children’s rights.
“It is difficult to specifically state who is the most “traveled” First Lady since such a designation could be determined by several different factors: how many different nations were visited, whether return trips to the same nation are to be counted, whether “travel” means one trip to one nation, or one trip with several stops (for example, on one of her first foreign trips with her husband, Pat Nixon went to Guam, India, the Philippines, Indonesia, Pakistan, Romania, England and South Vietnam).”
http://www.firstladies.org/FirstLadiesAsAmbassadors.aspx
Good find lavi d.
Say what you want about Bush or Palin, but nobody can legitimately claim that either of them is too smart to run the country.
Darrell Delamaide’s Political Capital
Aug. 4, 2010, 11:44 a.m. EDT
Is Obama ‘too smart’ to run the country?
Handicapping presidential IQ
By Darrell Delamaide
WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) — When Barack Obama gave his first Oval Office speech in June about the Gulf oil crisis, critics pounced on him for pitching it over the heads of his audience.
The argument of experts interviewed by CNN at the time was that he used too many words in each sentence (19.8 on average) and the words were too long (4.5 letters on average). On that basis, his speech was considered to be at nearly a tenth-grade level, compared to, say, his more successful “Yes, we can” speech during the campaign, which was at a seventh-grade level.
While the rest of us just viewed the oil spill speech, which was almost universally panned in the press, as a snooze, a mini-debate sprang up as to whether Obama is in fact too smart to be an effective president.
As polls show growing voter discontent, states are lining up challenges to new federal health care legislation. Video courtesy of Fox News.
At least since David Halberstam’s “The Best and the Brightest” chronicled how a group of really smart people drove American into the quagmire of Vietnam, we have been suspicious of intelligence alone as a qualification for running the country.
Not that anyone really wants a dumb president (George W. Bush’s backers defended his intelligence), but there is probably a consensus that being smart is not by itself enough qualification to be president. It must be combined with other virtues — character, common sense, leadership, and, a new buzzword, empathy, for starters.
…
Gov’t OKs $600M in housing aid for 5 states
The Associated Press
Posted: 8:25 a.m. Wednesday, Aug. 4, 2010
WASHINGTON — The Obama administration plans to send $600 million to help unemployed homeowners avoid foreclosure in five states.
The Treasury Department says mortgage-assistance proposals submitted by North Carolina, Ohio, Oregon, Rhode Island and South Carolina received approval. The states estimate their efforts could help up to 50,000 homeowners.
The administration is directing $2.1 billion from its existing $75 billion mortgage assistance program to a total of 10 states. Each state designed its own plan.
Treasury approved money in June for Arizona, California, Florida, Michigan and Nevada.
Why dont they just start sending everyone free money and get it over with?
If we could equip each dollar with a GPS chip we’d be laughing, or crying, our collective azz off by this time next year.
It’s one way to avoid more Friday night FDIC pizza parties.
$600 Million divided by 50,000 FBs is $12,000 per FB. Subtract overhead/processing/management costs and it’s probably more like $8,000 per FB. Sounds like a generous “walk away” payment for not trashing the house as they leave.
NEW YORK (Reuters) - The demand for mortgage applications to purchase homes rose last week for a third straight week as interest rates tumbled, the Mortgage Bankers Association said on Wednesday.
The low rates also buoyed demand for home refinancing loans, with activity rising in five out of the past eight weeks, the industry group said.
The MBA said its seasonally adjusted index of mortgage applications, which includes both purchase and refinance loans, increased 1.3 percent in the week ended July 30. The four-week moving average of mortgage applications, which smooths the volatile weekly figures, was up 0.3 percent.
The seasonally adjusted purchase index, a tentative early indicator of home sales, increased 1.5 percent. Demand, however, is down about 40 percent since the tax credit expiration.
Glad you included that last sentence. Has there ever before been a 40 percent drop in the seasonally adjusted purchase index going in to the red hot summer sales season?
Sure there was a big drop from Spring. But even with that there was a 1.5% increase.
I know you know this, don’t play stupid. Demand was up huge in spring for the $8K bribe. The $8K bribe went away demand fell. But even with that, demand is up from the lows post-$8K bribe.
‘demand is up from the lows post-$8K bribe’
Bzzzz. wrong again.
It’s never too late to take a remedial math class, Eddie.
What are the 5 most expensive words in the history of the world?
The Obama administration plans to…..
Bugs: “Eh, I don’t think so Doc…”
“Real Estate always goes up!”
“Real Estate always goes up!”
The Obama administration is attempting to restore that, too.
It’s all good.
January 1, 2011 - here we come. Buy your houses now or be [taxed] out forever!
Yes, you may co-opt my [taxed] out forever phraseology.
“GSE’s oh, what a concept!”
“The federal money is coming from the $1.5 billion “Hardest Hit” program. Created by the Obama administration”
Federal foreclosure aid expected to arrive in Palm Beach County by end of year
By Kimberly Miller Palm Beach Post Staff Writer
Posted: 4:52 p.m. Wednesday, Aug. 4, 2010
Florida housing officials say it could be late December before the majority of struggling homeowners begin receiving $418 million in federal foreclosure prevention aid given to the state in February.
Florida’s plan on how to use the money, which would provide an up to 18-month reprieve on mortgage payments for unemployed or underemployed homeowners, was approved in late June.
But the Treasury Department is requiring Florida begin with a 90-day trial program that won’t start until the end of the month. That trial will be held in Lee County and only Lee County residents are eligible.
“We are hoping to roll this out statewide in December,” said Cecka Rose Green, communications director for the Florida Housing Finance Corporation. “People should look for assistance to be available before the end of the year.”
The federal money is coming from the $1.5 billion “Hardest Hit” program. Created by the Obama administration, it initially targeted states suffering the worst from the real estate crash; Arizona, California, Michigan, Nevada and Florida. Another $600 million was later added to go to North Carolina, Ohio, Oregon, Rhode Island and South Carolina.
“What are the 5 most expensive words in the history of the world?”
Okay we need some flexibility here, English is a flexible language right?
“My real-estate always goes up!” = x5
Modified for the Canadian lexicon:
“I’m Chinese, I pay cash!”
Modified Chinese:
“We have no stinkin’ bubble!”
Respect you in the morning…
“I am a little pregnant.”
I’ll see you 4:
“This time is different.”
“What are the 5 most expensive words in the history of the world?”
The seller accepted your offer.
Guys, no offense, but this ( after all ) a ‘Housing’ blog? Many of the posts thus far have bordered on taunting. Given the manner in which news is ‘reported’ is any additional spin really necessary? Just a thought!
Yeah, really, I’d rather talk about how the White Sox are in first and the Cubs are plummeting like Wiley Coyote after he walked over a cliff. My poor Cubbie loving brethren. Some day my friends, maybe next year!
Lip,
LOL! Yeah, ( there’s a difference between taunting and “a little ‘friendly’ rivalry” )
Taunting who? I see very litle taunting today amongst the posters.
Spin as in reporting what the Obama administration is factually doing to destroy the economy? You mean that spin? Well, someone needs to educate the masses since the MSM actively censors what people need to know.
It may as well be the American people who try to keep one another informed as to what is really happening and the consequences of such. The Political Class would love nothing more than for you to become a serf.
CoSpgs4—-
Your whining falls flat on the floor given the repeated false information you posted here. Please post more “facts” to discredit yourself even more.
factually doing to destroy the economy?
That’s the spin, right there. I generally agree with your position, so this isn’t me challenging that..but the spin is asserting that it’s “destroying the economy” as fact.
Not a “housing” blog.
Housing bubble = flawed economic ideaology
All flawed/wrong economic perceptions are fair game.
All unfair/conflicted government responses are fair game.
We are all just a little pissed and share our frustration here.
Got a problem with that?
pressboardbox,
And none more frustrated than ‘myself’. No, no particular problem, it’s just that I’ve begun to notice a pattern by which the struggle to -establish- first blood here in the morning and dependent on who gets in the best licks the quickest ’sculpts’ the conversation for the balance of the day.
As in, No Others Need Apply. Notice how posting activity drops off to nothing NLTN 11:00 am Pacific? Why? What’s the point? By that time ( typically… ) the conversation has become so politicized any post that isn’t in “the thick of it” just looks lame, immaterial and is wholly ignored.
So rather than contributing to the overall conversation, by the time 1st shift/west coast posters get a crack at it.., there’s no one LEFT to throw under the bus?
Borrowed from the NFL Rule Changes and Clarifications
2010 HBB Rule Changes and Clarifications
Instant replay renewed for three years with the same rules.
Fumble recoveries will be awarded at the spot of the recovery, not where the blogger`s momentum carries him or her.
Protecting the blogger will be emphasized even more.
Taunting rules will be tightened, with 15-word unsportsmanlike-conduct penalties flagged.
Bandannas and stocking caps are out, but skullcaps with the team colors and logos are OK.
“Flamboyant” celebrations will be penalized automatically for 15 words.
Removing Helmets on the Field During Play — no blogger may remove his or her helmet while on the HBB. Doing so will result in a 15-word Unsportsmanlike Conduct penalty. Exceptions are during timeouts and between quarters. (The HBB has done this in an effort to “reduce taunting and overexuberant celebrations” and also “in the name of safety.”)
Removing Helmets on the Field During Play — no blogger may remove his or her helmet while on the HBB.
Oh, shoot. My bike helmet’s in the other room. Penalty for Slim.
Jeff Saturday,
Too funny! Really, a lot of it doesn’t bother me, but while we’re doing sports analogies, it’s usually the “Piling On” that gets to me the most.
We smell blood in the water and everyone in that particular camp wants in on the kill.
DinOR
You seem like a really good person, proven by someone that doesn`t like to see “Piling On” or “taunting”. If you are a parent, I`ll bet you are a really good one. I was just joking around, didn`t mean anything by it.
Its the Bits…wide latitude I think…
9.6 percent year-on-year improvement in housing affordability predicted for San Diego County by Q1 2011:
Housing price drop in county predicted
By Jennifer Davies, UNION-TRIBUNE STAFF WRITER
Originally published August 3, 2010 at 9:52 p.m., updated August 3, 2010 at 10:09 p.m.
San Diego has gotten used to climbing housing prices — 13 months by one count — but that might soon end.
County home prices will decline 9.6 percent in the first quarter of 2011 vs. the first quarter this year, says an analysis from Fiserv, which provides the data for the widely watched Case-Shiller Indexes.
The San Diego area is projected to have the 28th largest drop of the 384 markets surveyed. National home prices are expected to fall 4.9 percent in the same period.
David Stiff, chief economist for Fiserv, said foreclosures, even though they have dropped in recent months, are expected to be a drag on housing prices. Even though prices are far off their peak, affordability continues to dog the local market.
“The problem with San Diego is that the run-up was so large that we don’t think the market has fully adjusted back to an affordable level of housing,” Stiff said.
By his estimation, San Diego County is the ninth most unaffordable market based on its median family income of $72,100 and median home price of $370,000 in the first quarter of 2010.
Why will San Diego — the only metro area to show more than a year of monthly price increases in the Standard & Poor’s Case-Shiller Index — see such a big drop in housing prices? Economists say the answer is simple: The federal homebuyer tax credit artificially inflated sales over the last year, stealing business from future months.
…
The San Diego area is projected to have the 28th largest drop of the 384 markets surveyed.
Biggest projected declines in first quarter 2011
Naples-Marco Island, Fla. -16.5 percent
Ocean City, N.J. -15.9 percent
Gainesville, Fla. 15.2 percent
Punta Gorda, Fla. -15.1 percent
Las Vegas-Paradise, Nev. -14.6 percent
(Year-over-year for metro areas)
Biggest projected increases in first quarter 2011
Spokane, Wash. 4.6 percent
Yakima, Wash. 4.6 percent
Cheyenne, Wyo. 4.5 percent
Fairbanks, Alaska 4.5 percent
Bangor, Maine 4.2 percent
Projected declines in select California markets
San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara -12.8 percent
Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario -11.3 percent
Santa Ana-Anaheim-Irvine -10.6 percent
Los Angeles-Long Beach-Glendale -10.1 percent
San Diego-Carlsbad-San Marcos -9.6 percent
(Year-over-year for metro areas)
Source: Fiserv
I see your pair of 4’s…and raise with a pair of 5’s
Big landlord raising O.C. rents
August 3rd, 2010, by Jon Lansner OC Register
“At least one local landlord thinks the market is turning in their favor. Equity Residental, a real estate investment trusting specializing in apartments, told investors that its base rent for existing tenants has been rising an average 4.3% upon renewal.
Local landlords have been battling to keep their incomes from falling as renters – tight-fisted and fearing for their jobs — chose from what was a huge supply of empty apartments. According to one measure — the local Consumer Price Index — area rents haven’t dropped this sharply in 70 years.
So Equity’s attempt to raise rents is worth watching as we hear talk of shrinking vacancies around the county. (Read another landlord’s rents-at-bottom take HERE!) Equity’s executives told a recent investor conference call (thanks, Seeking Alpha!) that Orange County’s 4.3% renewal hikes were in line with regional rent increases in L.A. of 3.5% and San Diego at 4.8%.”
Right now Zillow posts charts for each house with historical price information, ending with the current Zestimate value.
It would be fun for them to extrapolate a year or two into the future with the information above.
Ditto the stock market. Oil prices. Unemployment rates, etc. etc.
Where can one rent a crystal ball?
San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara -12.8 percent ??
Inventory has spiked in the last 60 days…
“By his estimation, San Diego County is the ninth most unaffordable market based on its median family income of $72,100 and median home price of $370,000 in the first quarter of 2010.”
I guess San Diego County incomes have done really well since the onset of the Great Recession? Because the U.S. Census Bureau claims median household income in San Diego County was only $62,820 back in 2008.
On the hunch that the Census Bureau estimate might be a better one that the Fireserv economist’s, especially considering 10%+ unemployed presumably have income in the $0 neighborhood, and taking the home price stat at face value gives a recent home price to income ratio estimate of $370,000/$62,820 = 5.9.
Note the three bottom calls in that article:
1. Michael Lea, director of the Corky McMillin Center for Real Estate at San Diego State University, predicted that prices would fall but probably not as precipitously as Fiserv was forecasting. “It’ll certainly be more than a percent or two, though,” he admitted.
2. Still, Stiff tried to sound a slightly positive note. While a 9.6 drop sounds pretty nerve-racking, he said San Diego has already hit bottom. By his calculations, the prices of single-family homes hit their trough in the second quarter of 2009. Through the first quarter of this year, prices have increased by 11 percent so even with the projected decreases the region will be above the low, albeit by just a bit — between 1 percent and 2 percent.
“San Diego is basically bouncing around its trough,” he said, adding that by the first quarter of 2012 prices here are projected to edge up by 2.6 percent.
3. Esmael Adibi, director of the Anderson Center for Economic Research at Chapman University in Orange, was more optimistic about the overall state’s short-term performance. He said his calculations have home prices increasing this year between 3 percent and 6 percent throughout California.
…
“If we stay flat, or even if we go down 1, 2, 3 percent, we should be OK,” he said. “We are probably at the bottom, but we are not going to bounce back immediately.”
Stiff says we are at the bottom, Lea is more optimistic, and Adibi is more optimistic, still, going so far as to predict price increases in the wake of the expiration of the $8K credit and in the face of ongoing double-digit unemployment in San Diego County and a huge overhang of high-end homes that aren’t moving.
At best, the recession ended last year. In the early 1990s recession, which officially ended in March 1991, according to the NBER, California home prices kept trending down for five more years, through 1996. But nonetheless, these three MSM-quoted experts are ready to assure everyone who will listen that San Diego prices have already bottomed out, and the sky is the limit from here.
We’ll see about that.
“Most importantly, an overstuffed inventory means production of homes will eventually slow down, which means fewer construction jobs, less demand for raw materials and less business for the industries that serve the housing sector.”
Under what rock does this writer live? She writes as though the home building depression never even happened yet…
And this notion that the inventory buildup is to blame for the virtual shutdown of the housing market is specious. It’s the unaffordability, stoopid!
WSJ Blogs
Developments
Real estate news and analysis from The Wall Street Journal
* August 3, 2010, 4:01 PM ET
Glut of Houses Holds Back Housing Market, Economy
By Robbie Whelan
Tuesday’s pending home sales report is the latest indicator that the U.S. housing market is bogged down by an inventory problem: Too many houses, not enough buyers.
Pending sales, signed contracts on the purchase of new homes tracked by the National Association of Realtors, were down 3% in June compared to May. That month saw a 30% drop in the index, after the April 30 expiration of the home buyer’s tax credit.
The pending sales numbers point to more alarming home sales figures, wrote Credit Suisse analyst Dan Oppenheim in a note Tuesday. Mr. Oppenheim said that given the sales pace, we’re on track to sell 3.7 million homes total this year–-the lowest seasonally adjusted level of single-family existing home sales since the fall of 1996.
Meanwhile, the home builders are still building homes, setting the stage for a serious inventory dilemma.
“When inventory increases, it only postpones the recovery as a whole. We already have too many homes,” said Teunis Brosen, an economist with ING Bank NV in Amsterdam.
For prospective homebuyers, this may be a boon: A glut of homes means downward pressure on prices, leading to a buyer’s market and homeownership within reach for more people. But for people who currently own homes, it’s bad news: To them, falling prices mean lower resale values, less borrowing power for loans requiring homes as collateral and the mere fact that they shelled out a lot of money for an asset that is depreciating. And it’s not just homeowners who suffer. For builders and the real estate agents who get commissions selling their homes, it means lower profits. Most importantly, an overstuffed inventory means production of homes will eventually slow down, which means fewer construction jobs, less demand for raw materials and less business for the industries that serve the housing sector. Bottom line: the economy typically cannot recover unless the housing sector recovers.
…
This is the lens through which the government and the FIRE sector view the problem. They identify the “causes”, and will then act to “mitigate” those “causes”. Without of course, giving any thought to the actual causes, namely bad debt due created by lax lending practices, and at the core, the separation of lenders from repayment risk, which caused that bad debt.
It’s like a patient with with a gaping wound, losing blood. If doctors behaved as our government, they would see that blood pressure was dropping and blood volume was lower, and would thus begin massive infusions of blood. Without of course, dealing with the wound.
“It’s easy to delude oneself if one’s paycheck depends on it.”
Will the Fed have to open an REO department?
* HOMES
* AUGUST 3, 2010
Foreclosed On—By the U.S.
With Bear Assets, Fed Balances Preserving Investment and Helping Borrowers
By SERENA NG And CARRICK MOLLENKAMP
[maiden1] Brett Deering for The Wall Street Journal
MALL OF AMERICA: Crossroads center in Oklahoma City. A Fed-financed firm foreclosed on it in last year.
James Currell is struggling to prevent his Minnesota home from being foreclosed. But his lender isn’t a bank. It is the U.S. government.
The Federal Reserve Bank of New York is facing the prospect of foreclosing on a number of properties in the coming months, from homes to commercial buildings, a result of a souring mortgage portfolio it took over when it helped bail out Bear Stearns in 2008.
As it deals with delinquent borrowers, a team of New York Fed officials and outside advisers are trying to avoid having the U.S. government, along with local sheriff’s departments, seize commercial properties and homes as it copes with falling real-estate values. In the process, the New York Fed is getting a hard lesson in the challenges of mortgage lending.
It is an unprecedented test for the most powerful of 12 regional branches of the Federal Reserve System. In its 96-year history, the Fed hasn’t made or controlled loans to U.S. citizens and businesses outside of banking since the 1930s, when it was done on a much smaller scale. Now, under the watchful eye of Congress, the New York Fed must recoup a $29 billion loan secured by the Bear assets.
“For the Fed to come in and foreclose on properties puts it at some reputational and political risk,” said Vincent Reinhart, a former senior Fed staffer who is now an economist at the American Enterprise Institute. “If the Fed can’t figure out how to recast the terms of these mortgages and work with borrowers—it’s emblematic of the problems the government has had with other programs over the last year and a half,” he added.
…
“Will the Fed have to open an REO department?”
You left out the word “again” from the end of your question. Don’t forget Resolution Trust Corporation.
I don’t believe the RTC was directly under the Fed’s jurisdiction, though my recollection is hazy.
Great Yahoo article that no-one should miss;
http://finance.yahoo.com/banking-budgeting/article/110218/the-biggest-lie-about-us-companies?mod=bb-budgeting
Combo/Eddie:
It’s even worse than that with GM. Car companies get to book the sale for each unit as they ship to the dealer - they don’t wait until it actually gets sold in the real world. More junk accounting. Also, GM has most of the same structural problems it had before BK and bailout and it continues to lose huge amounts of money on a monthly basis.
But, it’s all good since they are soon going to be making massive amounts of subprime loans through new sub AmeriCredit.
Eddie is fast becoming one of my favorite posters…..IMHO he is spot on about Obama. Although it’s depressing for me to admit it, I honestly believe McCain would have been worse.
Let’s channel the spirit of 1776. You Yanks did it to us once, now how about doing it again but this time to the Corporate Technocracy that is surely leading us to the end of empire ala the Roman Empire. Reading Gibbon is eerily prescient.
That was an eye opening article. I posted that a day or two ago here but never made it.
From the article.
A look at the facts shows that companies only have “record amounts of cash” in the way that Subprime Suzy was flush with cash after that big refi back in 2005. So long as you don’t look at the liabilities, the picture looks great. Hey, why not buy a Jacuzzi?
Car companies get to book the sale for each unit as they ship to the dealer - they don’t wait until it actually gets sold in the real world
I thought cars on the lot were actually still owned by the manufacturer - not the dealer. Is that not the case?
That’s true for boats, RVs and the like. But the dealer actually “buys” the car from the mfr when he takes delivery.
But the dealer actually “buys” the car from the mfr when he takes delivery ??
Kind-of…As it has been explained to me the dealer pays a “floor charge” for the vehicle for a certain period of time, say, 90 days…After that, he must purchase the vehicle from the manufacturer…Turning inventory is the key…
They pay interest on what they paid the manufacturer for the car……which is a lot less than “invoice” BTW.
When the car sells, the dealer “pays” for the car, plus interest.
Then the dealer gets his “holdback” payment quarterly from the manufacturer (from what I’ve heard, 3% of the “invoice” price). Plus whatever “incentives” the manufacturer is paying the dealers to move inventory. The dealers really don’t want you to know about this.
Screw the “invoice”. If it’s the end of the model year, or you are looking at a slow selling car, and the “invoice” says its an $18K car, offer $16-16.5K. Be prepared to walk. Also be expecting a call in a few days from the dealer.
Also…..check the door sticker for the “date of manufacture” of a vehicle you are looking at. If the DOM was much more than 80-90 days prior to the date you look at it, they CAN and WILL make a deal on it, to get it off their books ASAP.
Also, if the car has been sitting on the lot 4-6 months, you need to take a good look at it for cosmetic damage, especially if it is during thunderstorm/hail season.
Hi Englishman, great to see you back. What’s new?
I have a belated response to your headline question from a year or so ago: What would you do if you were me? I would do exactly what you’re doing– do the best you can for yourself within the current system, but also work to change it.
Regards,
LVG
Yeah, Englishman, long time no type!
And, if you ever venture into the heart of the city of Tucson, let’s go for a cup of tea.
I honestly believe McCain would have been worse ??
What about the back-up quarter-back ??
I don’t think she would have done any worse than Obama, Bush, McCain, Biden, Clinton……….
But I do believe she’s not qualified and others are not either.
I thought this firm went up in a firestorm of market collapse of its own creation back in Fall 2008, but its ghost seems to be haunting U.S. property markets.
Why can’t debt firms just die, once and for all?
* REAL ESTATE
* AUGUST 4, 2010
Lehman Makes Its Next Property Gamble
Firm Puts More Cash Into Existing Deals, a Risky Strategy Whose Success Depends on Real-Estate Values Going Higher
By LINGLING WEI
Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc., brought down in part by its huge property investments, is doubling down on some of its existing deals in a bet that commercial property markets are near bottom.
View Full Image
LEHMANRE
Ross Mantle/The Wall Street Journal
Lehman obtained court approval to buy back debt at a discount on Manhattan office tower 237 Park Ave., above, protecting the firm against a default but increasing its stake in the building to nearly $700 million.
Since the investment bank’s collapse in September 2008, the firm overseeing Lehman’s bankruptcy has reinvested more than $1 billion in apartments, office buildings and other commercial property already owned or financed by Lehman. Those properties, located from Austin, Texas, to New York to Washington, faced varying levels of distress.
Lehman also has spent nearly $1 billion to pay off partners and creditors and reach other settlements that resulted in the return of real-estate assets to the firm.
By piling more cash into these deals, executives at Alvarez & Marsal, the advisory firm overseeing Lehman’s bankruptcy proceedings, are hoping to salvage the maximum amount from the $14.4 billion of commercial real estate on the bank’s books.
But there is a risk: The success of this strategy depends in many cases on property values rising, something that is far from certain, given the tumultuous real-estate market and the country’s weakening economic recovery. U.S. commercial-real-estate values remain 41% below their October 2007 peak and only slightly above the low hit in October 2009, according to Moody’s Investors Service.
Bryan Marsal, head of Alvarez & Marsal and also chief restructuring officer and chief executive officer at Lehman, says the firm makes new investments only when it is certain that it will protect the existing ones, recover the new money, and achieve “market or above-market” returns on the fresh funds. The firm eventually will sell off all of its real-estate holdings, a process that Mr. Marsal predicts will last three to five years. “We have staying power and can wait until liquidity and the market come back,” he adds.
…
“The firm eventually will sell off all of its real-estate holdings, a process that Mr. Marsal predicts will last three to five years. “We have staying power and can wait until liquidity and the market come back,” he adds.”
BWWWAAAAAAHAHAAAAAHAAAHAHAHAAAAAAAHAHAHAHA!!!!! (fpss:tm:)
And if the market hasn’t come back in three to five years?
I sent a mortgage payment to BAC (formerly Countrywide) over a week ago, and it still hasn’t been posted yet. Fortunately I am six months prepaid, so they can’t play me for a sucker. It makes me wonder though if they let their mail sit for a while to generate late fees; I wouldn’t be surprised.
They always cash my Visa bill check quickly. And yes, I do check up on them for that reason.
If it’s a financial institution, you have to watch it like a shoplifter. Doesn’t matter if its a megabank or one of those oh-so-wholesome community banks or credit unions.
Just watch what it does. Carefully.
+10
It makes me wonder though if they let their mail sit for a while to generate late fees;
My COBRA servicer (former insurance provider) would hold on to checks for up to 4 weeks. After being dropped for non-payment (they lost a check), they told me it was my responsibility to call and check that they received it - watching for a cashed check wasn’t reliable.
Personally, I think they were just looking for ways to drop people from COBRA coverage as it’s extra hassle for them…
I’ve always thought the people who named COBRA knew exactly what they were doing.
After all, a cobra is one of the nastiest snakes in the reptilian world. Sort of like, ummm, health insurance companies, eh?
Look at your bill. It says a late charge is not assessed until after around 2 weeks.
They were always prompt at taking my payments before I refi’ed with someone else.
I recommend direct pay via your checking account instead of mailing a check in. This will guarantee a record in your bank statement.
yes, but also allows them to double-draw, etc.
Just like my new insurance provider did (after COBRA expired). Not only did they not stop drawing after I cancelled coverage, but they also did it 7 days sooner than I had it set up to do..and they drew the money again the following month…
If I lived paycheck to paycheck, I would’ve been screwed. Luckily I have a nice chunk of savings so I didn’t get overdrawn, and could float them the unauthorized loan (Without interest, of course) for a month until they could get it all resolved.
I don’t let anyone have control over when they get a payment from my bank account. On-line bill pay through my bank where I say when the payment is sent and how much they get is easy enough. Never gave paypal a bank account number either. The first time I got their e-mail asking to become a “certified” user, I thought for sure it was a phishing scam.
I have a auto-transfer… Impossible to be late…
* ECONOMY
* AUGUST 4, 2010
Home Data Slide Again as Tax Credit Expires
By SUDEEP REDDY
A gauge of pending home sales dipped in June, continuing a decline tied to the expiration of a tax credit for home buyers.
The National Association of Realtors’ pending homes sales index, a leading indicator for the housing sector, fell 2.6% to 75.7. The measure, which was down 18.6% from its June 2009 level, tracks transactions for existing homes in which a contract has been signed but the deal has not yet closed. Closings tend to occur one or two months after a contract signing.
The index tumbled 30% in May after the government’s April 30 deadline for contract signings to be eligible for the federal tax credit. Those sales must close by Sept. 30 to receive the tax break.
Because home buyers rushed to sign deals ahead of the April 30 deadline, sales activity was expected to weaken throughout the summer.
“There could be a couple of additional months of slow home-sales activity before picking up later in the year, provided the job market continues to improve,” said Lawrence Yun, chief economist for the Realtors group.
…
The “walk the dog index” in my neighborhood is confirming a dearth of “Contract pending” signs and an abundance of “Price reduced” signs. This is in a neighborhood with houses in the 200K-500K price range. The few “sold” signs I’ve seen are in very low range. I think that was even one that sold for under 200K.
I’m also seeing a lot of “for sale” signs that just up and disappear. No “sale pending” or “sold” riders on ‘em — they just vanish.
Methinks that those are listings that have expired without sales.
“I’m also seeing a lot of “for sale” signs that just up and disappear. No “sale pending” or “sold” riders on ‘em — they just vanish.”
That speaks to what Ben was saying the other day about Fannie and Freddie reducing their list time from 90 days to 60 before sending them to auction. Not that all are GSE houses, but if, perhaps, one or two houses on the block go to auction then the rest of the sellers get discouraged and take theirs off.
That monster house behind the gate (the one that went off the market 4-5 months ago) grew a new for sale sign last month. Same price from months ago, but now it has twin down the street for sale at 20% less, and a vacant lot for sale next to that. Good luck!
I saw one that said, “Repositioned Price”.
What clowns
In our search for a home we’re finding that short sales are collecting offers, usually two or more people, but only a small percentage are actually closing.
I estimate at least 95% of the MLS are short sales. Of those that suit Mrs Lip’s taste [1 story, 4 bed, big yard with a pool] which is about 2% of the homes, all of them have had pending offers.
We low balled on a new home [that we could live in forever] but we couldn’t reach an agreement on a price. I know its not the right time to buy “just yet” but if you plan to buy eventually I think its good to shop.
Conclusion: It is fairly difficult to buy a home even if you have cash and a decent credit score. New home builders have homes for sale, but they come at a premium and they aren’t all that willing to deal.
The MSM says that we aren’t yet out there trying to buy a house but my question is
How long can the banks keep this avalanche of vacant homes off the market? Don’t they see what’s about to happen?
Keep renting. Buy when you can keep an identical lifestyle after the purchase. Also make sure your home will be cash flow neutral or positive because it will not be liquid in an emergency. I still believe patience will pay off.
Here’s a Tucson data point: I’m noticing a lot of “for sale” signs around town. Recently told y’all about the 14-mile bike ride in which I spotted 45 of these signs.
Any-hoo, I’m also noticing a lot of hybrid offers. As in the property’s simultaneously for sale and for rent. And, last night, I noticed a house that had been sporting a FS sign since the spring. Still the same real estate agent’s sign, but now it has a “for rent” rider.
Anyone else noticing the same?
Slim:
Any quality properties in Oro Valley looking cheap?
What areas of Tucson are the best to buy in, taking into account quality neighborhood, access to outdoor activities, great for families, etc.
Be interested in your thoughts (or anyone else’s). Thanks.
Oro Valley’s about 15 miles north of here. And a big hill stands in the way of Slim and the bicycle. So, needless to say, I don’t get out to OV very often.
Sorry I can’t help.
“Here’s a Tucson data point.”
Hwy seeks number of “Coming Soon!” signs spotted?
AZ,
I have noticed several hybrid ‘for sale’ / ‘for lease’ signs recently on my bike rides in the neighborhood.
I have also been noticing more ‘for sale’ signs around here. I was wondering about it - whether there was some positive reason people were selling houses, or whether owners were in trouble financially.
I recently ran into a neighbor who’s a RE broker and has a lot of the listings. I’ve known him since we bought our house in 92 and he’s a very decent guy. (I’m putting on my flame-retardant suit as I type.)
I asked him whether there were indeed lots more houses on the market. His immediate reply was “Yes. There’s lots more. Nothing is selling, nothing. The banks won’t finance anything. Nobody can buy. It’s not that more people are putting their houses up for sale, it’s that over the months with no sales they build up - that’s what you’re noticing. You wouldn’t want to be trying to sell your house now.” He also said, “And they’re expensive,” shaking his head.
Good news for renters with cash.
New renters just moved in across the street from me. The house was For Sale for about 2 months, and then he made it For Rent. I was surprised he found a tenant so quickly, since he was asking $2700/month. My wife is going to walk over to meet the renters, and I told her to try to ask what they are paying. I sure am glad I don’t need to sell right now.
Anyone else noticing the same ??
Not sure about the hybrid but there is unquestionably a lot more signs both residential and commercial…
I note that the aftermath of the first-time home buyer credit is at least as disastrous as many on the HBB predicted it would be. Nice try at Soviet Union style social engineering, DC!
* EARNINGS
* AUGUST 4, 2010
For Home Builders, Reality Looms in Results
By DAWN WOTAPKA
With home builder DR Horton Inc. reporting a 60% surge in quarterly closings Tuesday, it is easy to think the housing market might finally be recovering from four years of turmoil.
Not so fast.
It is well known that the federal home-buyer tax credit, which dangled as much as $8,000 to get buyers to the closing table, juiced orders. Buyers rushed to meet the April 30 deadline, and builders played into the frenzy—even if every buyer didn’t later qualify for a mortgage.
“We wanted to give every buyer the opportunity to buy and close on a home,” Chief Executive Donald Tomnitz said during a conference call to discuss quarterly results. “And so, if they had a pulse and they were warm we wrote” contracts.
Chances are, PulteGroup Inc., an industry giant set to report results early Wednesday, and Beazer Homes USA Inc., expected Thursday, employed a similar strategy: Sign deals now and face reality later.
Well, reality is here and it is pretty bleak. Several builders have said that traffic from potential buyers fell drastically after the credit’s expiration, despite record-low mortgage rates making home ownership more affordable than ever. “If you’re looking for a pulse in the U.S. housing market, best of luck,” writes Mike Larson, a real-estate and interest-rate analyst with Weiss Research, in a research note. “I can’t seem to find one.”
The number of people who signed contracts to purchase homes in June set a record low, slipping 2.6% from the previous month, according to a report released Tuesday by the National Association of Realtors. The June decline followed a 30% plunge in May. June’s new-home results, released last week by the Census Bureau, were even more abysmal, coming in at the second-lowest rate on record.
Meanwhile, the usual suspects still dog the industry: Unemployment remains elevated and the foreclosure crisis is flooding the market with bargain-priced inventory. “Buyers continue to lack confidence and motivation,” said Dan Oppenheim, a Credit Suisse building analyst.
Industry experts have already said they expect the rest of the summer to be slow; the fall might not be much better. “It’s a weak market,” said Ken Campbell, chief executive of builder Standard Pacific Corp., during a call last week. “I think it will recover, but it sure as heck is not clear when it’s going to recover at this point.”
Even so, builders remain confident that a new normal will eventually emerge. The go-go building boom is history, but the humbled executives will settle for the days when they made a solid profit selling homes that buyers could afford.
…
The U.S. housing market’s vacant property glut may be dwarfed by China’s. Watch out below when this bubble pops!
Aug. 3, 2010, 8:30 p.m. EDT
Fear empty flats in China’s property bubble
Commentary: Even worse than price bubble is quantity bubble of vacant flats
By Andy Xie
BEIJING (Caixin Online) — How many flats in China are sitting empty? The media recently floated a story — denied by power companies — that 64.5 million urban electricity meters registered zero consumption over a recent, six-month period. That led to a theory that China has enough empty apartments to house 200 million people.
Statistical transparency is lacking in this area, so the truth about empty apartments remains under wraps. Publishing accurate data should be of the highest priority, since the size of the nation’s unused apartment stock is perhaps the most important measure of the extent and seriousness of China’s property-market bubble. Indeed, it’s a grave concern for policy making, since unpublished data may indicate not only a price bubble but a quantity bubble burdening the market.
Real estate is prone to price bubbles because unique factors restrict its supply response. Inflated prices have been the mark of most modern-day property bubbles. Price bubbles occur frequently and can last a long time.
In the 1980s, Tokyo saw a tremendous rise in property prices not in tandem with supply. The Hong Kong property market experienced a similar phenomenon in the 1990s.
…
So should we be stepping up and buying a house here AND a condo there too? Heck, it’s the least we can do for the NWO.
Who wouldn’t want a flat with a view of the polluted river and the smokestacks at the new factories?
From the AP market wire today:
” a negative, knee-jerk response to reports that China’s regulators have requested their banks conduct stress tests to account for a 60% decline in residential property prices.”
Two days ago I read elsewhere that prices are down 50% - quite suddenly too. Sounds like something’s afoot with Hwy’s friends in the TrueBambooLie.
Bubble publishing opportunity # 387:
Bank Stress Tests for Dummies
Author: TTT
Made a cash offer at 62% of asking price on a REO, and just found out it was rejected, apparently by a computer. Since we already told LL we were renewing the lease, I guess we’ll fire up the popcorn and watch real estate’s next leg down.
just found out it was rejected, apparently by a computer.
It’s worth noting that a computer doesn’t do anything a human didn’t tell it to do…
(whether intentionally or inadvertently, mind you…)
True, Drumminj, of course. I guess I should have been more specific: the banks computer sent my agent an email rejecting the offer and copied the bank officer, the listing agent, and my agent. It was all rather efficient, especially for the listing agent, who now has one fewer task to do in order to collect his commission.
So my g/f had a fraudulent charge on her Bank of America credit card….from a merchant in Romania. She called to dispute the charge and report the fraud, and the bank credited the amount, but didn’t cancel the card and issue a new one - they said they only do that after 3-4 incidents.
Soo…fast forward to yesterday….she gets a letter from their fraud department saying they’ve contacted the merchant and reviewed the claim, and decided the charge is legit, and are adding the amount to her balance. They included a photocopy of the receipt.
Of course, if you actually look at the receipt, the signature looks nothing like hers…and the sale was physically done in Romania (she was charged a currency conversion charge as well!). Apparently their fraud department doesn’t even compare signatures?!?!
Contrast this with my experience with Discover - last fraudulent charge I had, they immediately reversed the charge, canceled the card, and had me a new one in 5 days. No fuss at all. I’ve had them call me mere seconds after I made a charge because it triggered their fraud detection, and they were verifying it was me making the purchase…
I’ve advised my gf to cancel that card ASAP. It’s clear they’re not looking out for her in any way, shape or form. Anyone else with a BoA card should be similarly concerned.
What, you (and she) are STILL not using a credit union?
What, you (and she) are STILL not using a credit union?
I suppose the answer to this is… “Nope”?
I try my best to not use a CC, so whether it’s backed by a big bank or a credit union, I don’t see it makes much of a difference…
Yes, I suppose it’s something I should look into for my banking needs, but one of the local credit unions is regularly on a local radio show and hocking bad investment advice…leaves a bad taste in my mouth…
My credit union has gone back to hawking HELOCs.
Az Slim
Ours too. I remember our CU bragging how they were more conservative than a bank, and didn’t participate in the lending orgy. What a pile of horsesh*t.
I find myself using more and more of USAA services - if you’re eligible for it you should check them out. Easily the best company I’ve ever dealt with.
not using a credit union ??
I just moved over a few months ago…
When I had a card stolen a year or so ago, B of A reversed the charge and canceled my card. Sorry your girlfriend didn’t have a similar experience. I hope she can challenge - can’t she just prove that she was not in Romania at the time of the purchase?
I canceled my B of A card when they raised interest rates. I pay my balance off every month (like a good HBB-er), but while I was looking at the rate change notification something jumped out of the fine print : 3% charge on overseas transactions (IN ADDITION TO currency conversion and other fees).
I canceled that day and got a credit card from my credit union : 1% charge on overseas transactions, no fees. Their debit card works the same.
If you travel, don’t use a B of A card.
by Eddie yesterday: “Now on to Florida to look at those $25K condos…..”
Eddie, I wish you the best with your new LL venture.
I don’t understand why people were attacking you for that; personally I could see doing it too when the price is right and the properties cash-flow with a decent ROI (factoring in damages and vacancies @ 1mo/yr), but valuations are still far too high for that in Seattle. And I have no desire to be a long-distance LL; that sounds like a recipe for trouble (unable to monitor) and expense (unable to work on it or rent it yourself, so subtract 10% from revenues for management fees).
I would, however, advise major caution when it comes to cheap $25K condos. The biggest risk IMHO is the potential for a severely undercapitalized HOA due to a significant fraction of the units being “non-paying”. Do your due-diligence before walking into that mine-field!
Thanks for commenting on this, PiC..I agree…it seems everyone is just looking for a reason to jump on Eddie.
If the property really cashflows after PITI and some money set aside for maintenance, it doesn’t seem like a horrible decision…hopefully it works out.
Being a small residential landlord is a mine field… Understanding where all the land mines are so you can avoid them is the key to being successful and it takes much education and lots of time to learn…
And, to anyone who’s thinking of becoming a landlord, here’s a book to read:
Landlording by Leigh Robinson. It’s about 400 pages long, and the edition I read was an 8.5″ x 11″ or thereabouts. So, it’ll keep you busy for a while.
After reading this tome, and thinking about what it has to say, you may be a successful landlord. But it’s not easy. You can’t just sit back and collect rent checks.
With regards from your HBB Librarian…
Any business venture has the potential for trouble. I did my homework, ran the numbers and made a decision based on that. Can it fail? Sure. But if I went into every decision I ever made with the idea that because something can fail I shouldn’t do it, I’d never do much else than sit in my living room watching TV.
Plus having rented a house myself for going on 4 years I have learned a lot by being on the other side of the “trade”.
we didnt all jump on him, just trying to understand the ROI. for taking on such risk it better be at least 10%. if the numbers make sense, then go for it.
Bronco, I thought your question was fair and substantive…
Eddie, do you care to answer that one? I’m curious too…
it seems everyone is just looking for a reason to jump on Eddie.
It’s weird that people jump on Eddie but I think it’s just that sometimes people might not think Eddie is very nice to other people so they get mad at him. I mean I think some people think that Eddie might not care about other people less fortunate or dumber than he acts. Maybe it’s because I think he got kicked off this blog once for saying the kind of things that get you kicked off blogs.
Or it might be the Staw man stuff that everybody says he does or because he doesn’t research his points much. I don’t know. We’re all God’s children.
Or maybe people get jealous because Eddie is always telling about how much money he makes or how stupid or lazy everybody else is that doesn’t agree with him.
I don’t know what it is really but we all should be nicer mabye.
I’d favor the OlympiaGal approach. No matter how heated the arguments got, she had a way of jumping in with some humorous story that would have us all in stitches.
+1, Slim… (sniff)
“potential for a severely under capitalized HOA”
I lived that nightmare once, years ago, no f-ing fun at all. Lots of aggravation and pocket book pain. I plan to never do that again.
by Eddie yesterday: “Now on to Florida to look at those $25K condos…..”
By all means go see them in PERSON, many a dupe has been screwed over the internet.
I may be crazy, I’m not THAT crazy as to buy real estate sight unseen.
25K condoze in Florida? Forget the under-funded HOAs. You need to really be careful of a defective building that was given a COA by a sleazy, incompetent city or county inspector. Furthermore, a COA means didly-squat in Florida or anywhere else.
If there is something wrong with the building the inspector missed, then that is just TFB as far as liability is concerned. The contractors, inspectors, county, state, and city, are held harmless and expect the homeowner to assume responsibility for the problem. This usually means a large insurance claim. This then means a large insurance rate increase.
Building boom era houses and condos? No way, no how. I know what was built in the boom time in Tampa. I watched some friends get their new house with new furniture flooded and ruined by bad plumbing made in China. The house was less than 6 mos old. The builder just said that is what home insurance is for.
Never trust a Florida gov’t house inspector. Never buy a housing boom house.
Roidy
Roidy
If there is something wrong with the building the inspector missed, then that is just TFB as far as liability is concerned ??
In California, there is a 10 year statute covering defective workmanship…Meaning, Owner, developer & contractors are on the hook for that 10 year period…The umbrella liability insurance covers a lot but the deductibles are huge…
Fair enough. I think I would stay away from brand new stuff no matter what. I would want something in an established neighborhood, so 10 years old at least.
“If there is something wrong with the building the inspector missed, then that is just TFB as far as liability is concerned.”
The role of the county’s building inspector have NEVER been to protect the homeowner or to prevent low-quality construction.
The building inspector is there ONLY to ensure that the building meets code. They do not particularly care whether the construction is of high quality or low quality, or the parts are from china and will fall apart shortly, so long as it meets code.
You should not rest any easier or less easy because a dwelling was given a COA.
What’s funny to me is that some anonymous blog poster says he did this or that and it’s taken as fact. Interesting that suddenly one day - ‘I’m a cash flowing landlord!’ and everyone buys it. I seem to recall a lot of blather about stocks, etc, but no landlord plans. Oh, and he said he’s renting his ‘high end house’ even though I’ve seen countless posts from him about what losers renters are. Hmmm.
I still think most trolls are bored 12 YOs trying to get a rise out people, so I don’t feed the trolls.
eddie has a few good points, he is just inconsistent in his logic (and as misled/shrill/blinded by ideology as exeter, albeit in the opposite direction.)
“…a few good points, … just inconsistent in his logic…”
Just like the Eddie Haskell character on Leave it to Beaver…
;^) good point…
‘has a few good points’
Which could be copied from any of thousands of comment threads on the internet.
‘inconsistent in his logic’
Consistent logic isn’t what trolls are shooting for. Think about it; why would a ‘rich’, investment savvy adult sit around all day trying to piss people off? More like 12 YO crank calls.
“More like 12 YO crank calls.”
I’m with you. I have seen 12 y-o boys in action. Just tonight I saw them put some poolside lounge chairs into the hot tub at our local pool. The lifeguard was none too pleased, but the boys seemed happy at the rise they got out of the authority figure.
“More like 12 YO crank calls.”
BINGO
Here in S. Carolina our foreclosure rate is up 34% over last year, so this tain’t enough. We’re gonna need a bigger bailout, they work so well!
Gov’t OKs $600M in housing aid for 5 states
AP Real Estate
WASHINGTON — The Obama administration plans to send $600 million to help unemployed homeowners avoid foreclosure in five states.
The Treasury Department said Wednesday that mortgage-assistance proposals submitted by North Carolina, Ohio, Oregon, Rhode Island and South Carolina received approval. The states estimate their efforts could help up to 50,000 homeowners.
The administration is directing $2.1 billion from its existing $75 billion mortgage assistance program to a total of 10 states. Each state designed its own plan. Treasury approved money in June for Arizona, California, Florida, Michigan and Nevada.
The Obama administration has rolled out numerous attempts to tackle the foreclosure crisis but has made only a small dent in the problem. More than 40 percent, or about 530,000 homeowners, have fallen out of the administration’s main effort to assist those facing foreclosure. That program provides lenders with incentives to reduce mortgage payments. So far, it has provided permanent help to about 390,000 homeowners, or 30 percent of the 1.3 million who have enrolled since March 2009.
Most of the foreclosures are along the coast. So we add another subsidy for people to buy houses along the coast. Those folks should not have bought those houses and condo’s. They did to get rich. Now that it is a losing bet, we have to pay for it.
“Liberty means responsibility. This is why most men dread it.”
~G.B. Shaw
Wall Street has yet another plan to shift debt to the federal government to re-start the party, and then claim that Social Security and Medicare cannot be provided to younger generations because rich people’s taxes are too high.
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/could-the-government-create-a-backdoor-stimulus-2010-08-04
“Morgan Stanley & Co. released a report, entitled “Slam Dunk Stimulus,” last week arguing that the Treasury Department could engineer a broad, streamlined refinance program for all government-guaranteed mortgage-backed securities.”
“Analysts at the investment bank contend that millions of mortgages backed by the U.S. government could be refinanced without the need for an analysis of a borrower’s credit quality because the principal is already backed by the government.”
“A sweeping refinancing would result in a direct cost to the government in the form of significant losses to government-controlled mortgage giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, which own almost $1 trillion in mortgage-backed securities according to Fannie and Freddie’s June 2010 summary report. Keefe analyst Bose George argues that Fannie and Freddie / would experience total losses of about $75 billion from such a major refinance initiative.”
Money would be borrowed to make that up.
China Tells Banks to Stress Test for 60% Home-Price Drop
China’s banking regulator told lenders last month to conduct a new round of stress tests to gauge the impact of residential property prices falling as much as 60 percent in the hardest-hit markets, a person with knowledge of the matter said.
China Syndrome?
Obama Ready to Drill Baby, Drill?
The Obama Administration is tinkering with pulling the plug on its temporarily moratorium on deepwater drilling in light of the BP oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico.
“Despite headlines screaming “the worst oil spill in history,” it turns out the BP blowout disaster wasn’t really as big a deal as you’d have thought”. ~ Clipped from the 5-Minute forecast ~
According to the feds, 74% of all the oil leaked into the Gulf has already been removed. “Much of the rest,” The New York Times summarizes a government report released today, “is so diluted that it does not seem to pose much additional risk of harm.”
Nearly half — 41% — of the oil simply “evaporated, dissolved or dispersed” — taken care of by Mother Nature herself. That’s a larger share of spill containment than all of BP’s burning, skimming, recovery, dispersing and plugging efforts… combined.
The report estimates about a million barrels of crude oil remains floating in the Gulf.
This should go over like a fart in a church…With the banks that is.
N.Y. Fed May Require Banks to Buy Back Faulty Mortgages, Assets.
Aug 4, 2010
The Federal Reserve Bank of New York may require banks to buy back faulty mortgages and other assets acquired through the rescues of Bear Stearns Cos. and American International Group Inc., a spokesman said.
“We are involved in multiple efforts related to exercising our rights as investors in non-agency RMBS or CDO securities,” New York Fed spokesman Jack Gutt wrote in an e-mail, referring to residential mortgage-backed securities and collateralized debt obligations.
Steps include “those that require originators to repurchase ineligible loans,” Gutt wrote. “These efforts support our primary goal of maximizing the value of these portfolios on behalf of the American taxpayer.”
Now what the hell else would Barry read to this crowd?
Obama Tells Labor Leaders He’ll Pursue Union-Friendly Agenda
Wed Aug 04
President Barack Obama told labor leaders he’ll pursue a union-friendly agenda as he sought to smooth policy and political rifts with a voting bloc Democrats need to keep their majorities in Congress.
Obama told the executive council of the AFL-CIO he is committed to getting legislation passed that would make it easier for unions to organize workers and to enforcing labor provisions in trade agreements. He also vowed to focus on middle-income workers in efforts to revive the economy.
“We are not giving up and we are not giving in,” Obama said in his remarks at the Washington Convention Center to the group, which includes leaders in the 56-union labor federation. “We are going to keep fighting for an economy that works for everybody, not just a privileged few.”
I seem to recall reading a book by Jesse Ventura, I think it was I Ain’t Got Time to Bleed, in which he described the reaction when he told a union audience things it didn’t want to hear. Wasn’t a friendly reaction.
Maybe it’s just a coincidence, but it seems like most die-hard “anti-union” types in management that I’ve seen are also the “My Way or the Highway” Mini-Hitlers that were one of the reason that unions were started to begin with.
Bad Management was around a long time before Bad Unions.
I’ve worked for more than a few bad managers. All of them in nonunion workplaces. I think they would have been less likely to mistreat their workers if they’d had a union to, ahem, intervene.
Why didn’t the workers quit?
This is the question that is never asked in this discussion. Oh noes, big bad mean boss. Must gets me a union ASAP!! Or how about quit and find a job with a better boss? But that would mean taking some…ohhh what is that word again….oh yes….
R-E-S-P-O-N-S-I-B-I-L-I-T-Y for ones’ life.
And we can’t possibly have that word uttered in Obama’s America now can we? No. The government will do everything for you. Free health care, free house, unemployment benefits for years and years, free cars, free gas, free internet, free free free. You just vote Democrat and sit back enjoying life. Someone else will pay for it.
“You just vote Democrat and sit back enjoying life. Someone else will pay for it.”
Nah Eddie, I’m gonna just vote Democrat because you’re a raving lunatic…and I can cancel out your vote.
The government will do everything for you. Free health care, free house, unemployment benefits for years and years, free cars, free gas, free internet, free free free.
Dude that’s the reason that I do miss Bush. He gave me a free check. I thought that was cool.
All that Obama gave me was the slap in the fact that I’m gonna have to buy health insurance someday when I come back to the USA.
At least all the other presidents before Obama would let me be a freeloader and get real free healthcare. I never thought a Democrap would push this kind of personal RESPONSIBILITY Dang.
ot
coincidence-
That reminded me of how Lisa Douglas (Eva Gabor), the farmer’s wife on Green Acres said it:
“Coincidinkle”
What a surreal and funny show that was.
Bounding into the living room of his rickety old farmhouse, Oliver Wendell Douglas is crowing with delight. His field of alfalfa, he exclaims, is blooming at last.
“Vat do ve do vith falafel?” asks his wife, Lisa, puzzled.
“Alfalfa,” Oliver corrects. “It’s fodder for the animals.”
“But vat about da mother?”
“Mother? No, no, Lisa. Fodder is what animals eat.”
“Dey eat der father? How terrible!”
Those two were a great comedy team. Eva had talent, beauty, and people say she was a sweetheart.
Eva was a real hoot as the gold-digger in “Gigi”.
Helser Chevrolet Closes Their Doors
RED BLUFF, Calif — After more than three decades of service, Helser Chevrolet in Red Bluff is closing their doors. No one from the dealership was available for comment, but a sign on their doors reads, “After many years in business, we deeply regret that we must close our doors.”
The exact reason for the closure is still a mystery, but Red Bluff City Manager Martin Nichols blames the down economy. Nichols says the city has seen auto sales, “declining pretty steadily as the economy has gone into this recession.” The dealership first opened in 1973, and is now the second dealership to close over the past year. Last April, Red Bluff Ford closed, and remains vacant along I-5.
Red Bluff receives a, “good chunk” of it’s sales tax revenue from auto sales, says Nichols. He says the dealership will be missed, and while it the closure was a surprise, the city was ready for something like this to happen. Nichols says, “while we did not expect the closure of Helser Chevrolet, we did expect sales taxes to further decline this year, and part of the impact is built into our budget.”
The city receives the majority of their tax revenue from gasoline sales, so this biggest impact, says Nichols, will be on jobs.
I’ve noticed that the local bike shops have been quite busy. And, near the University of Arizona, get-around-town bikes are extremely popular, and not just among the students.
Here in the Centennial state your home town and counties receive any vehicle sales taxes, regardless of where it was purchased in the state. So if I buy a car in Denver the sales tax boomerangs back to Larimer County and Loveland, which split it close to 50/50.
EXCLUSIVE 1:26 PM PT: CA Prop 8 held to be unconstitutional under due process and equal protection. Will be released at 2 PM PT…
138 PAGE RULING: Judge strikes, ‘Only marriage between a man and a woman is valid or recognized in California’…
JUDGE: PROPOSITION 8 DOES NOT SURVIVE RATIONAL BASIS…
JUDGE: Having considered the trial evidence and the arguments of counsel, the court pursuant to FRCP 52(a) finds that Proposition 8 is unconstitutional and that its enforcement must be enjoined.
‘Proposition 8 places the force of law behind stigmas against gays and lesbians’…
‘Stereotypes and misinformation have resulted in social and legal disadvantages for gays and lesbians’…
California polygamists have to be celebrating this decision!
I’m going to marry my cat and claim the other as a dependant on my income tax. I’m tired of the “single person penalty”.
Don’t be “speciesist”.
One man’s bestiality is another man’s nuptial union. To each his, her or its own!
What? Gubmint workers cheating? No Way…
Federal Workers Pocketed ‘Fraudulent’ Social Security Payments, GAO Finds
Hundreds of federal employees may have improperly reaped millions in Social Security disability benefits, according to a government watchdog that caught workers at several major agencies pocketing fraudulent payments.
The Government Accountability Office issued a report that showed at least 1,500 federal employees may have wrongly received benefits. The group’s investigation, which focused on two Social Security programs for people who have limited incomes due to disabilities, found several specific cases in which beneficiaries were earning well above the income cap while still receiving benefits. In one case, a Transportation Security Administration screener was overpaid $108,000, according to the report.
What? Gubmint workers cheating? No Way…
Last time I checked they were still homo sapiens.
“67% of Americans are hitting the bottle, the most since 1985…”
http://www.time.com/time/business/article/0,8599,2008139,00.html?xid=rss-biztech-yahoo
I was thinking about this while reading yesterday’s thread regarding retirement age increases supposedly justified by increasing life expectancy. I fully expect life expectancy in the USA to *drop* over the next decade. When the USSR collapsed, that’s exactly what happened there. Suicide and rampant alcoholism. Cheers!
Back when I lived in Pittsburgh during the 1980s, that city was going through the equivalent of the Great Depression. Unemployment was up near 20%, and I couldn’t begin to estimate the underemployment rate.
Needless to say, there was a lot of substance abuse, domestic violence, anxiety, and depression. In short, we Pittsburghers were pretty miserable people.
I left that city in March 1987. Within a few weeks, I noticed a marked change in my outlook.
Four years after I moved to Tucson, I had a brief phone conversation with one of the people I worked for back in Pittsburgh. He was amazed at how upbeat I sounded.
Sad thing was, I stayed in touch with one of my close Pittsburgh area friends, and she continued to report that times were still hard and that the people weren’t terribly happy.
When did Pittsburgh turn around? I was there for the first time in 1986, and it looked like they were trying really hard with a few nice projects. Do you hear anything about what it’s like nowadays, I haven’t been since 2004.
I think San Jose is the “new” Pittsburgh. Too many broken promises from the “Silicon Valley” mindset. I know I’m happier out of there.
A home in Signal Hill, Ca at 2700 Panaroma Drive that sold for $1,350,000 in 2006 just closed for $788,000.
Nice Haircut!
“…just closed for $788,000.”
There is the new comp for all homes in the area of similar or lesser quality.
Just what keeps me on the sidelines right now. Sure, I might be able to come in and lowball say a former $1,000,000 house for $450,000. But then when the new comp is set, more discouraged people will walk and when the bank sells the next one for $400,000 (or less), I am immediately down a big chunk. Of all the things I miss of my McMansion in Chandler, rapid appreciation is what I really miss as the “owner” (i.e. renting from the bank).
I am really trying to prep myself that once I buy again, I better really like it, because there will be a drop before any rise in prices.
“…just closed for $788,000.”
With 7.4% down that loan meets the FHA jumbo limit for LA county.