Bits Bucket For August 30, 2010
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The Housing Bubble
Examining the home price boom and its effect on owners, lenders, regulators, realtors and the economy as a whole.
August 30, 2010
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2 new programs planned to help homeowners
WASHINGTON – The Obama administration’s top housing official says several new programs are in the works to help try to revive the housing market.
Housing and Urban Development Secretary Shaun Donovan said in an interview aired Sunday that his department in the coming weeks will roll out an FHA refinancing program to help borrowers whose mortgages exceed the market value of their homes. He also said the department will launch “an emergency homeowners loan program” to help people who are unemployed keep their homes.
Donovan, on CNN’s “State of the Union,” said a drop in July home sales was expected with the end of the housing tax credit, but that the decline was “clearly worse than we expected.” He said “it’s too early to say” if the credit will be revived.
To everyone who voted for Obama and Wall Street’s Republicrat tools who have voted for these endless bailouts: F**k you. And take some responsibility for what you’ve foisted on the nation.
To everyone who voted for Obama and Wall Street’s Republicrat tools who have voted for these endless bailouts: F**k you. And take some responsibility for what you’ve foisted on the nation.
Amen. I love it!
“Long-Term Capital” Investment scheme gone bust whilst US Gov’t “sucks-its-thumb” …score:
Gov’t Harnessed Bungee-cord Theory = 1
Rope-around-the-Throat = 0
That’s just the way it’s gonna be
Mr. Bear/Packy…Cantankerous…Sammy SchadenfreudeThat’s why I stayed home, and didn’t vote. Both choices were God awful. When I saw Phil Gramm on one side, and Larry Summers on the other, as talking points (Economic Advisors), that said it all.
Don’t blame me, I voted Ron Paul.
Write-in Candidates are a lot harder with the damn electronic voting machines, but on the plus side, they might get their votes ACTUALLY tallied.
No they won’t. They will be disqualified on some pretext or another. And should they “accidentally” get elected, they will be sued in court and some false charges levid against them.
By the time it’s all sorted out, or they go broke or have to compromise to keep from losing everything, it no longer matters.
And THAT is how the game is played.
Oh, I know they won’t get elected, but I’m pretty sure the ‘write ins’ were ignored and nobody ever knew if 10,000 people voted for Micky Mouse, or whatever, and anybody/party ACTUALLY garnering enough votes (even 1%) to be paid attention to was being completely ignored.
if 10,000 people voted for Micky Mouse
Hey, how did you know who I voted for?
Don’t blame me, I voted for John Anderson AND Ross Perot.
I guess you would still feel like that if you were the one who needed help, right?
I guess you would still feel like that if you were the one who needed help, right?
Just because I need help doesn’t mean I feel others should be compelled, at gunpoint, to offer it.
Why can’t people understand that?! It’s possible to be compassionate, and feel that it’s your individual duty to help others, without feeling you have a right to TAKE money from OTHERS at gunpoint to do the same.
I’m a big supporter of dog rescue efforts, but you don’t see me trying to get taxpayer funding for it. I donate my time and money, and I do what I can to get others to support local rescue efforts, but I would never DREAM of forcefully taking the fruits of your (or anyone else’s) labor to fund my personal belief system.
Seems to me to be a rare sentiment among the vast vocal majority of America…
Personally I cannot agree with you more!
Just because I need help doesn’t mean I feel others should be compelled, at gunpoint, to offer it.
Why can’t people understand that?! It’s possible to be compassionate, and feel that it’s your individual duty to help others, without feeling you have a right to TAKE money from OTHERS at gunpoint to do the same.
I do not like our government spending all this money on bailouts and other programs either however, on a more general subject, I don’t agree taxes are being “stolen” from anyone as if in a vacuum. We did not create the advantages or our system mostly by ourselves.
Taxation Is Not Theft
http://www.huppi.com/kangaroo/L-taxestheft.htm
Taxes are part of an agreement that voters make with government, a contract in which citizens agree to exchange their money for the government’s goods and services. To consume these goods and services without paying for them is itself theft, and is rightly punished as breach of contract. Some may object that they have not agreed to the contract, but if so, then they must not consume the government’s goods and services. Furthermore, contract by majority rule is better than by minority rule, one-person rule or anarchy (which results in kill-or-be-killed). Opponents of taxation under democracy are therefore challenged to find an improvement on democracy….
Many conservatives and libertarians concede the logic of this argument, but point out that taxes do not go exclusively to public goods and services. They also go for welfare payments to the poor who are allegedly doing nothing and getting a free ride from the system. That, they claim, is theft.
But this argument fails too. Welfare is a form of social insurance. In the private sector we freely accept the validity of life and property insurance. Obviously, the same validity goes for social insurance like unemployment and welfare. The tax money that goes to social insurance buys each one of us a private good: namely, the comfort of being protected in times of adversity. And it buys us a public good as well (although tax critics are loathe to admit this). If workers were allowed to unnecessarily starve or die in otherwise temporary setbacks, then our economy would be frequently disrupted. Social insurance allows workers to tide over the rough times, and this establishes a smooth-running economy that benefits us all.
We should also note that the program most popularly known as “welfare” — Aid to Families with Dependent Children — takes up less than 1 percent of the combined federal and state budgets. (1) That tax critics would raise such a big stink over such a paltry sum begs an explanation.
Actually I think drumminj’s sentiments are more common than you think. So common that a guy wrote about about how people don’t vote their own economic interests as he thought they should. Remember What’s the Matter with Kansas? The Marxists called it “false consiousness.”
I call it altruism.
There is what is necessary for the basic social contract - upholding laws, defending the borders, providing for the general welfare - and then there’s the looting of societal wealth for the benefit of politicians and their big contributors.
It’s the latter to which many object.
“To everyone who voted for Obama and Wall Street’s Republicrat tools who have voted for these endless bailouts: F**k you. And take some responsibility for what you’ve foisted on the nation.”
Oh Yeah Sammy…
Close ALL of the banks, shutter the groceries store windows and bar the doors, close the gas stations, lock n’ load and let the lunatics roam free and run things for a while.
That certainly should cure things in short order.
Did you vote to give all the money to the Union (GM) bailouts or all that money to the Black Panthers or ACORN or Wall street? No, I thought not. Vote them out this November. It’s your last chance without a gun.
“To everyone who voted for Obama and Wall Street’s Republicrat tools who have voted for these endless bailouts: F**k you. And take some responsibility for what you’ve foisted on the nation.”
One of the main reasons I voted for Obama was to bring the troops home. They are winding down in Iraq, and for that I’m thankful. If only the same could be said for Afghanistan…
Oh, and f*ck you, too!
They are winding down in Iraq, and for that I’m thankful.
keeping 50k troops there is “winding down”??
Wait a minute. Weren’t you supposed to be utilizing your own little “Joshua Tree Injection,” or whatever it’s called, to put me on ignore, per your own words? I see it was empty rhetoric, much like this latest utterance from you.
Anyhow, yes, they have been decreasing troops substantially. Are you really that uninformed? Would you not call a decrease from 170,000 to less than 50,000 “winding down?”
But it’s nothing to do with Obama.
The treaty was signed when Bush was still the president. Bottom line, Iraq kicked us out. We would be in this situation no matter who the president is. However, the situation in Iran might have been quite different (much worse) if McCain were the president.
Wait a minute. Weren’t you supposed to be utilizing your own little “Joshua Tree Injection,” or whatever it’s called, to put me on ignore, per your own words? I see it was empty rhetoric, much like this latest utterance from you
The personal attacks aren’t becoming of you, Grizzly. No, never claimed to be ignoring you - I reserve that privilege for a select few extremely partisan posters.
I would call a drop from 170k to 50k a significant withdrawl. It doesn’t signal to me an exit of the area, which is what I would consider “winding down”, as in “on our way out of there”.
I’m trying to remember Sammy, what were our other choices? Oh that’s right… none.
Let us now sit back and fight the nausea, as Sammy gushes about Ron Paul and how he and everybody who voted for him are the enlightened ones, superior to anybody with opposing viewpoints.
Republicans and democrats have both been given many chances and failed every one. Ron Paul has never even been given a chance. Therein lies the superiority.
Ummm, Ron Paul is a Republican.
And Ron Paul has still never been given a chance.
Don’t blame me. I didn’t vote for the first Kenya-Hippyamerican prez.. I voted for a pretty, strong, accomplished woman who just helped raise $5.5 million for wounded warriors while causing fauxbammunists to clutch their pearls and gnash their foaming teeth.
So there.
fauxbammunists
That’s awesome, dude.
He said “it’s too early to say” if the credit will be revived.
Interesting. First shot across the bow? Up to now there’s been zero talk of this, at least that I’m aware of.
Looks like floating a trial balloon to me…
You know, I was actually thinking of buying a larger house for my growing family (3 kids under 7 in 1200sf is an exercise in efficiency). But now I think I should hold off a few months.
$100k credit for all. Can be applied to any existing Fannie/Freddie mortgate (principal rebate), or used against purchase of a new home. That should do it.
Was there any mention of goodies for responsible renters?
No, I didn’t think so…
None for responsible owners, either. It’s only the egregious debtor who get freebies.
None for responsible owners, either. It’s only the egregious
debtorbankers who get freebies.There. Fixed that for ya.
… And still the question that never gets answered is WHY are lower home prices and foreclosures always seen as “bad news”? For renters its fantastic news. Where are the incentives and “help” for renters?
Renters and small business owners are both deemed too fortunate to help.
‘Ron Paul and…everybody who voted for him are the enlightened ones, superior to anybody with opposing viewpoints’
See, this is one reason why we are trapped in the two party system. When someone with non-establishment ideas gets any political traction, they and their supporters aren’t taken at face value or are slandered. And then this alternative group becomes alienated. I’ve seen it happen many times with many movements ( it isn’t just candidates for president).
Where does this resistance to ideas that originate outside of DC come from? Theories abound, but look at the campaigns run against them and compare that to campaigns between ‘traditional’ democrats or republicans. Year after year, huge parts of the electorate will agree that the system is screwed up and isn’t serving us well. But when anyone steps up with a truly new approach, they are called every name in the book, with the merits of their ideas lost in the hub-bub. Then incumbents are overwhelming elected and those who aren’t lose to the ‘other side of the aisle.’
I don’t know why any person would subject themselves to the attacks that come from running independently for office. So then we get the following:
‘what were our other choices? Oh that’s right… none’
At one time I had some respect for Ron Paul… that was until his son started opening his mouth.it
I sent Ron Paul money on a number of occasions…
My dig wasn’t at Ron Paul, Ben, but at Sammy and his holier than thou attitude.
I have a different take than Sammy, but you probably won’t like it either. He’s pissed that people keep voting Tweedledee and dumber into office and things keep getting worse. People who vote dem/rep complain the loudest, pointing the finger at the ‘other side’, but are considered by some the ones ultimately responsible for the unaccountability and corruption in the system. After all, somebody keeps voting for these people.
Personally, I gave up on the US electorate. I volunteered, protested, debated, wrote letters, you name it. And all I got was (largely) more of the same and called names in the bargain. I’m not cynical, but I suppose you can classify me as thinking things have to get really bad before people will figure we need to scrap this system and do something different. I’m not happy about that, and it shouldn’t be this way, when all we have to do is demand better at the ballot box. But such is the problem of the two party system. It destroys any opportunity for reform outside of its power structure. And IMO that’s the only place real reform will ever take place.
Sure, but he voted for a long time politician from the same establishment. What he said is no different than somebody who voted for Obama, or McCain, saying “f*ck you” to anybody who voted for a candidate other than their own. I agree that the two party system sucks, and I’d like to see campaign finance reform, but in the meantime I chose to go to the polls and pick the lesser of two evils, IMO, rather than do nothing at all. I’m happy with a few things Obama is doing, though I’m discouraged with the system as a whole, and the rampant corruption throughout.
I’ll tell you what. Why don’t you and Sammy put your ideas together, and produce a candidate which stands for all that’s fair and just, and I’ll vote for him/her. I agree with a lot of both of your opinions, I just don’t agree with Sammy and his holier than thou “f*ck yous.”
‘Why don’t you and Sammy put your ideas together, and produce a candidate which stands for all that’s fair and just’
First of all, we probably wouldn’t agree on candidates. That’s OK tho, as we need people that can speak across lines. And if you’re waiting for ‘a candidate which stands for all that’s fair and just’ you’ll never be happy. Which kinda gets to the point. Sure, the establishment churns out squeaky clean suits that say all the right things while offending the bare minimum of regular voters. But then we slowly find out they are in the pocket of this group or that, while breaking every promise they made to stay in power. The result is a sorry thing indeed, that all in DC refuse to claim as their own. But it is theirs, and yours:
‘I chose to go to the polls and pick the lesser of two evils’
I’m not waiting for a candidate who’s “fair and just,” I said that sarcastically. Prior to the last presidential election, the wars were the biggest issue, to me, aside from the horrendous economic meltdown. I voted for Obama almost exclusively to see an end to the horrific waste of money, lives, and US credibility in the eyes of the world that these wars have represented. If great strides are made in this area, I will be somewhat happy with his term.
All of these nonsense policies attempting to prop up housing prices which enrage Sammy are irritating to me, too. In fact, there are many things that this administration does which I don’t agree with. I’m not sure I’d vote for Obama again because of them.
Grizzly,
This election wasn’t the usual choice between bad and worse. This was between ghastly (McSame and Palin) and appalling. Both supported bailouts and a massive intrusion of government into just about every sphere of life. Obama, to his credit, has kept us out of WWIII. Ron Paul is a man of integrity who isn’t beholden to the TBTF banks. Do I agree with him across the board? No, but he’s a huge improvement on the Etablishment Hollow Men who the GOP and DNP put forward.
There was noting holier-than-thou about my “f**k you” for Obama voters. I’m pissed off that 99% of the American electorate are sheep who continue to perpetrate the corrupt status quo, then whine as if the outcome was somehow not their fault.
HUD Secretary Shaun Donovan has his sleeves rolled up too!
http://tinyurl.com/29xcrlf
Hiring, Manufacturing Probably Cooled on Signs U.S. Recovery Is Stumbling. ~ Bloomberg
Hiring, Manufacturing Probably Cooled
The jobs report, due on Sept. 3, will show overall payrolls fell 100,000 this month. Photographer: Andrew Harrer/Bloomberg
Hiring and manufacturing probably cooled in August, showing companies are scaling back as the U.S. recovery shows signs of stumbling, economists said before reports this week.
Private payrolls that exclude government agencies rose by 47,000 this month after a 71,000 July gain, while the unemployment rate rose to 9.6 percent, according to the median estimate of 33 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News. Factories expanded at the weakest pace in almost a year, an Institute for Supply Management report is forecast to show.
Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke said last week the central bank will do “all that it can” to sustain an expansion that’s still restrained by weaker-than-anticipated consumer spending and “painfully slow” job growth. Other reports this week may show household purchases are stagnating and service industries, the biggest part of the economy, decelerated.
Dayton, Ohio is a manufacturing city. One person on another blog has been tracking employment for the city for a decade or more. He noted that manufacturing employment increased significantly each Spring and into Summer, then fell in the Fall and especially in the Winter. This was true in good times and bad times. The only difference was the starting point.
So there appears to be a pretty strongly documented seasonal trend to manufacturing jobs in Dayton, and similarly documented trend to manufacturing jobs in all of Ohio. If it’s similar for the nation, then we can expect some troubling employment numbers the 1st Friday of each of the next 5 months.
Interesting. Maybe it is the effect of Christmas. Manufacturers have a lead time of 3-6 months to get stuff into the stores for Christmas?
All the usual economists and talking heads will call it “unexpected.”
This article was unexpected.
http://www.northbaybusinessjournal.com/24326/when-the-word-unexpectedly-is-unhelpful/
When the word ‘unexpectedly’ is unhelpful
August 30, 2010
Here’s a word that should be eliminated from today’s coverage of the economy: “unexpectedly.”
Here are a few of many recent examples from prominent news outlets.
* Sales of new homes unexpectedly sank 12.4 percent in July to the lowest point since government records…
* Home resales dropped a record 27.2 percent in July…twice as much as…expected
* Initial claims for unemployment surged unexpectedly two weeks ago… and fell more than expected last week…
The question is, of course, unexpected to whom?
Certainly among employers there is nothing surprising about these week numbers.
And the 18.4 percent of formerly working Americans who are out of a job, working only part-time or have quit looking altogether surely see nothing unexpected in the figures.
And many knew weeks or months ago that housing sales would slow markedly when the federal government stopped paying people to buy houses with the expiration of the $8,000 tax credit.
Now, at least, we may know the true state of the housing market and move on.
But more importantly, this inability to properly assess the state of the economy can be dangerous. For instance…second-quarter economic growth will almost assuredly be revised downward.
But if it is played as a surprise or something unexpected and more reason for worry, the financial markets could react negatively…
That’s would be unfortunate, and we should expect better.
Certainly among employers there is nothing surprising about these week (sic) numbers.
Yep. The amount of cash that companies are piling up bears this out.
Nonfinancial companies are sitting on $1.8 trillion in cash, roughly one-quarter more than at the beginning of the recession. And as several major firms report impressive earnings this week, the money continues to flow into firms’ coffers.
But the truth is that this cash is not coming from profits, it’s coming from the issuance of debt. If I borrow $10,000 and put it in a savings account, do I have $10,000 to spend free and clear?
So all that cash is sitting on the sidelines stuff is a total lie.
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-biggest-lie-about-us-companies-2010-08-03
Thanks for the link. A couple of points about that though:
- The article doesn’t dispute that cash has been building up, only points out that it’s offset by growing debt.
- Not sure why but the article only discusses “corporate” debt. Corporate debt has indeed continued to increase. However non-corporate business debt has decreased some in both nominal terms and certainly per-GDP terms:
Corporate:
Q3 2008: 7100.2
Q1 2020: 7213.4
Non-corporate business:
Q3 2008: 4064.6
Q1 2020: 3707.6
So total business debt has gone down, in both nominal and GDP terms.
(Acknowledging that yes this is still extremely high historically.)
Arends presents his data comparison as debt / net worth - but the increase is not due to debt increase as he presents, it’s due to net worth going down. So yes companies are more leveraged in this respect, but they also have a much higher cash / net worth ratio. To my original point - this points out that companies are hedging against uncertainty, much the same as a lot of people are doing - hoarding cash, even if it means paying off less debt or even adding new debt.
P.S. Irony of ironies - the title of the article is “The biggest lie about U.S. companies”, however the subtitle of the article itself - Healthy balance sheets? They owe $7.2 trillion, the most ever” is a lie! “Companies” do not owe $7.2 trillion. Corporations owe $7.2 trillion, but “corporations” are a subset of “companies”. Companies owe $10.9 trillion.
Taking on debt to sit on cash only makes sense in a limited number of cases.
1) You expect opportunities to arise and want the money there so you can move quickly.
2) You expect to need the money later, but doubt you’ll be able to get it then.
I wonder if CFOs are talking the CEOs into getting the cash for reason 1, while secretly fearing it’s for number 2.
3) You think you may be bankrupt soon, and want to skim as much out as possible before then, and don’t give a rip if the bank (and by extension the taxpayer) is left holding the bag.
Packman I agree with your conclusion. But I think the purpose of most of the money sitting on the sidelines stories in the MSM is to convince the sheeple they should put their money in the stock market, that companies have lots of new profits and their stock is ready to explode, or that they’ll soon be using all this cash to invest in growth. PR pieces written by wall street and passed off as financial news.
Agree.
Although it was a mistake to use the word ‘companies’ when ‘corporations’ was meant, (don’t forget that headlines are rarely written by the article’s writer), the most important difference between corporations and companies is that companies that are not corporations tend to be smaller businesses, who don’t sell shares and have no access to the bond market.
Therefore, the fact that companies in general have deleveraged more than corporations is probably due more to the fact the non-corporate companies can’t borrow any money from the banks, as they have been complaining.
The article’s focus on corporations is reasonable- they’re the one’s whose stocks and bonds we’re supposed to be buying because they’re so flush with cash. Which they aren’t, when you look at their debts.
4. You expect interest rates to rise in the fairly near future and you’re locking in low rates now.
CEO’s don’t get paid as much if their company goes bankrupt. In bad times you fire everyone but the PR manager outsource all jobs, and stock pile cash.
lol. Very pithy. And timely. Lots of folks on here have been commenting on the over/misuse of the U-bomb for several years, me thinks. Perhaps the PTB ought to come on over and find out what they might be able to EXPECT so they could at least appear to be somewhat informed and competent. Anyone? Anyone? OMG. Maybe they could just watch “Ferris Bueller’s Day Off”, (or take a high school economics course).
“In 1930, the Republican-controlled House of Representatives, in an effort to alleviate the effects of the… Anyone? Anyone?… the Great Depression, passed the… Anyone? Anyone? The tariff bill? The Hawley-Smoot Tariff Act? Which, anyone? Raised or lowered?… raised tariffs, in an effort to collect more revenue for the federal government. Did it work? Anyone? Anyone know the effects? It did not work, and the United States sank deeper into the Great Depression. Today we have a similar debate over this. Anyone know what this is? Class? Anyone? Anyone? Anyone seen this before? The Laffer Curve. Anyone know what this says? It says that at this point on the revenue curve, you will get exactly the same amount of revenue as at this point. This is very controversial. Does anyone know what Vice President Bush called this in 1980? Anyone? Something-d-o-o economics. “Voodoo” economics. “
I hate the word “Unexpected” just as much as using the words: ” Snapped up”, as in “Buyers snapped up homes at a record pace”, which we don’t see as much anymore. But during the bubble it appeared in every story.
I hate the word “Unexpected” just as much as using the words: ” Snapped up”
I especially dislike the phrase, “mortgage product”
Would strategically defaulting be the polar opposite of snapping-up?
e.g. The woman unexpectedly slapped-down the keys to the home she just recently snapped-up. The resultant whiplash had limited effect on her perfect hair.
People refer to jobs but if the jobs are low wages and taxed to the max then the recovery can’t happen.
What doesn’t the gov’t get, houses are still priced to high, gas, basic food and expenses continue to climb. Health care is going up as I type, how does a wage earner ever see the light at the end of the tunnel?
You don’t.
This has been an ongoing process for 30 years.
Policy Options Dwindle as Economic Fears Grow ~ NYT
On Friday, Ben Bernanke, chairman of the Fed, speaking in the measured tones of a man whose word choices can cause billions of dollars to move, acknowledged that the economy was weaker than hoped, while promising to consider new policies to invigorate it, should conditions worsen.
Yet even as vital signs weaken — plunging home sales, a bleak job market and, on Friday, confirmation that the quarterly rate of economic growth had slowed, to 1.6 percent — a sense has taken hold that government policy makers cannot deliver meaningful intervention. That is because nearly any proposed curative could risk adding to the national debt — a political nonstarter. The situation has left American fortunes pinned to an uncertain remedy: hoping that things somehow get better.
Payday, yippee!
Fed ready to take ‘unconventional measures’
NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) — Federal Reserve chairman Ben Bernanke bluntly acknowledged that the U.S. economic recovery has lost considerable steam, but said the central bank has the necessary policy tools to support continued growth.
“The issue at this stage is not whether we have the tools to help support economic activity and guard against inflation,” Bernanke said at the Fed annual symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyo. “We do.”
Making his first public comments since the central bank announced it would buy additional long-term Treasurys to boost the recovery, Bernanke said that the pace of economic growth is “somewhat less vigorous” than expected, but remained optimistic for a pickup in 2011.
Bernanke reiterated that the Fed would reinvest in Treasurys to maintain the size of its balance sheet, and added that the bank is prepared to provide additional “unconventional measures if it proves necessary, especially if the outlook were to deteriorate significantly.”
Nonsense, helicopters have been around for over half a century - they are hardly unconventional.
I think Bernanke meant to say “illegal measures”, not unconventional.
Certainly ‘unconstitutional’ at the very least.
BINGO
He has probably constructed a way to stimulate spending without having to go through congress. Currently he makes billion dollar loans to banks who agree to buy treasruries or possibly stocks.
Next up billion dollar loans to local governments at 0% interest. Billion dollar loans to US companies at 0% interest if they agree to build in US. There will likely be a Wall Street middle man skimming, there always is.
Now that a level 3 hurricane is headed for NYC, Ben is probably loading up the Chinooks with a few trillion to dump in the eye of the storm and “redistribute” some more wealth on Wall Street.
Since when is it the fed’s job to “support economic activity”???
By statute, the Fed has a dual mandate: maintaining price stability, and fostering maximum employment.
The latter portion could be construed as requiring a certain level of economic activity.
Unortunately, these two mandates can sometimes be at odds, and Congress has been mute about which of the two should take precedence in those cases.
‘unconventional measures’?
Hmm, with they post video?
Roidy
“…but said the central bank has the necessary policy tools to support continued growth.”
What growth?
Luxury booms while bargain retail suffers
Consumer spending in the US is diverging into two strands as strong growth at high-end stores such as Tiffany contrasts with continuing difficulties for mass-market retailers
Personal spending in the US is diverging into two distinct categories as strong growth at high-end stores contrasts with continuing difficulties for mass-market, low-price retailers.
Nearly a year after the US economy returned to growth, corporate earnings reports in recent months have provided consistent evidence of the differing fortunes. At high-end stores such as Neiman Marcus and Tiffany, shoppers are demonstrating confidence and spending with vigor. At the other end of the retail spectrum, consumers are cautious amid economic uncertainties, denting the earnings of groups such as Walmart.
In the second quarter of 2010, personal consumption expenditure – the commerce department’s main measure of consumer spending – advanced at an annualized rate of 2 per cent in the US, matching the fourth quarter 2009 figure and improving upon the 1.9 per cent gain recorded in the first quarter of this year. However, these modest increases are much weaker than the rebound in consumer consumption experienced after previous recessions.
I’ve been thinking a lot about this lately. For one Yves Smith wrote a piece about a luncheon where two of her trusted contacts spoke about how in their circles many were just faking it trying to stretch out the status quo as long as possible to save face.
Then a commentator on one of the weekend news shows said consumer spending was actually above where it was before the market crash. Instead of long term durables apparently the consumer has shifted to services. I realized that’s how it feels around me now. I don’t know too many that appear outwardly cautious. No cars or boat purchases but lots of stone walls getting rebuilt, pavers installed in walkways or retaining walls, people taking 4+ weeks of vacation over the summer over several different trips. I know on my vacation I saw lots of No Vacancy signs and we were inching down tourist packed roads.
Now we take our time … so nonchalant,
And spend our nights so bon vivant.
We dress our days in silken robes,
The money comes, the money goes …
We know it’s all a passing phase.
We light our lamps for atmosphere,
And hang our hopes on chandeliers.
We’re going wrong, we’re gaining weight,
We’re sleeping long and far too late.
And so it’s time to change our ways …
But I’ve loved these days.
Now as we indulge in things refined,
We hide our hearts from harder times.
A string of pearls, a foreign car
Oh, we can only go so far on caviar and Cabernet.
We drown our doubts in dry champagne,
And soothe our souls with fine cocaine.
I don’t know why I even care
We’ll get so high and get nowhere.
We’ll have to change our jaded ways
But I’ve loved these days.
So before we end and then begin
We’ll drink a toast to how it’s been
A few more hours to be complete,
A few more nights on satin sheets,
A few more times that I can say …
I’ve loved these days.
- Billy Joel
Machines make most of the stuff in the country today. If you own a productive machine times are good (the stuff is worth a lot more than energy), if you don’t it’s pretty bad, stuff is worth a lot less than the labor required to duplicate the machine’s efforts.
Welcome to the star trek economy.
I’ve been in a LOT of factories and you would be surprised at how few of them are totally automated.
Most of America’s factories still required a lot of labor on hand. And automation isn’t all it’s made out to be. It fails often and is mostly never properly maintained. It’s also not replaced until WAY past its useful life.
The other thought I had on this article is the weariness I’ve felt living in a higher income area after a crash. The keeping up w/the Joneses attitude only ebbed for a few months. Once they began to feel confidence that their jobs weren’t going anywhere it really went back to previous behaviors pretty quickly. I was looking forward to going somewhere w/the kids other than the soggy $10/burger spot for lunch after Oct 08 but alas that thought isn’t even on their radar. Then we have to go over to Starbucks afterward and drop $30 more on preteens.
My Dad had his own successful business and we lunched often but it was never ever a chain. It was the best Mom and Pop in the area putting out something quality for a modest mark up. Mom had the homemade dessert waiting at home. I dated the guy on the other side of the neighborhood whose family as it turns out owned much of our town. It took me a while to know that because his family lived just as we did. The only material difference in lifestyle was a modest summer camp in the NH woods. We’re talking unheated, 4 kids sleep to a room modest. Maybe it was a 70s thing. Maybe it was New England thing. I wonder if our communities will ever feel as tight as we did back then.
Sadly, it seems those times are not coming back anytime soon. The saying “Nostalgia isn’t what it used to be” does not apply to our memories of childhoods in the 1950s to 70s. Conspicuous consumption really wasn’t as prevalent or…conspicuous.
There were a couple of kids from extremely successful business-owning families in the public schools where I grew up, and those kids were just like the middle-class majority of us. In fact it didn’t occur to me until much later that the Gordon kids were of the Gordon Food Service family. And the Meijer kids were as nice and polite and unassuming as a parent could wish.
And the Meijer kids were as nice and polite and unassuming as a parent could wish.
Back when I was in Ann Arbor and courting a nice young fellow, we were outside a party, talking with one another. And then one of young fellow’s friends walked by. “Hey, Mije!” was my companion’s greeting.
Mije was one of the Meijers, and he was indeed a down to earth guy.
Is it just possible that “high-end stores” are better at cooking the numbers because they have more at stake in the struggle for survival during the fake recovery? Just a possible justification for the retail number discrepancy.
BMW and Porsche are offering 0% financing over 72 months and $0 down on a lease.
Luxury has learned from non-luxury how to goose sales.
Speaking of Porsche, what is up with the stupid models they’ve been putting out of late? Like the Cayenne? Its a VW Toureg. In other words- its a badge engineered car. What about their new Panamera? Its a 2 door Porsche that’s simply been stretched to accommodate 4 doors. Yet at the car show people were just drooling all over it. Perhaps the recession has somehow caused those with lots of money to drastically reduce the quality of their good taste.
It’s a Porsche thing. You obviously don’t understand.
Put a Porsche emblem on a dog turd, and the Porsche guys will pay a hundred bucks for it. Because it’s a special turd, that feels different than every other turd.
What about their new Panamera? Its a 2 door Porsche that’s simply been stretched to accommodate 4 doors.
I saw one of those on the street this weekend. Not a good looking car, IMO. My wife picked up a used Mercedes R-class recently that doesn’t look much better, but at least it was cheap.
It really cracked me up when the Boxster was introduced, with production split between a Porsche facory in Germany and the custom production factory Valmet in Finland. Porsche snobs would check the sticker to make sure they weren’t getting one of those “inferior” Finnish jobs.
Until all the reviews came in which showed the Boxsters made by Valmet had higher quality than those made by Porsche themselves.
It really cracked me up when the Boxster was introduced, with production split between a Porsche facory in Germany and the custom production factory Valmet in Finland.
Many years ago, I got a business referral. Like most of the referrals I get, it was worthless, but I decided to check it out anyway.
It was to a guy who was a custom shoemaker to the stars. When I spoke with him on the phone, he dropped all sorts of names, and we arranged to meet to discuss a website for his retail store.
So, I hopped on my bike and pedaled over to said store. And the space was still being renovated. No store owner in sight. I waited around for about 15 minutes, then realized that I’d been stood up.
Well, I pedaled back home, and, after the smoke stopped pouring out of my ears, I called the guy and set up another meeting. It would be at a nice little cafe near my house. He told me to be on the lookout for a red Boxster.
Well, to the cafe I pedaled, and wouldn’t ya know it, I got stood up again.
Now, the store did open, and a few months later, I saw the guy standing out in front of the entrance, holding court with several young ladies. I watched the festivities from a distance, thinking that it wouldn’t be a good idea to go over, introduce myself, and resume the discussion of that website.
A few months after that little scene, the shoe store closed. And, ever since, the word “Boxster” is one that I consider to be synonymous with “blowhard.”
If Valmet makes cars like they make guns, that would be a kick-ass Porsche.
In the run-up to WWII, the Finns reworked old Mosin Nagants into the improved M-1939, the work being done by Sako and Valmet among others. I have a Sako, but I swore if I ever bought a Boxster I’d have to get a Valmet M-1939 too.
Valmet is a fascinating operation. For many years they produced the convertible versions of many European cars such as Volvo, Saab, and IIRC Jaguar.
The plutocrats are spending with abandon. They know that the Fed, their paid-for creatures in Congress, and this Administration has their backs. And the sheeple are too stupid and complacent to do anything but snivel.
..and then vote for more of the same.
Luxury booms while bargain retail suffers
I thought Mort Zuckerman was leading the rich off to Gault’s Gulch in protest over Obama’s ‘demonizing’ them. I guess they’re hitting all the malls on the way.
The rich don’t shop at malls. The rich don’t really shop. They hire designers (or any other name you choose) to do that for them.
The rich don’t shop at malls.
Someone should tell the Maktoums that ( the royal family of Dubai). They own several horse farms around here (Lexington, just south of you), and they’re notorious (in a good way) for hitting our biggest mall and spending like, well, like oil sheiks. I knew a guy who managed the mall, and he said one guy who owned a kiosk that sold knives, daggers, swords, and the like, said that two visits from them (they come to town twice a year for the racing meets and horse sales) made him as much as 25% of his annual revenue.
I work in retail for a company that serves everyone from the lower middle-class to the very rich. When the credit crunch hit, everyone stopped spending. The really rich came back after some 4-6 months. The upper middle class came back after 12 months. The lower middle class has yet to return to it’s pre-recession levels.
What I find interesting is that these days it really hardly matters whether you buy your toaster from a bargain store or a high-end cooking store. I tend to flip things over and see where they’re made as well as look at the overall quality of the item. The only difference between some generic toaster at Wally World and the one from some fancy store is that the one from the expensive store has a nice thin sheathing of chrome plated tin or aluminum with a different brand name stuck on it.
I tend to collect old things and truth be known, if you really want top-notch “luxurious” quality, even the cheapest low end toaster, wallfe maker, or table fan is a hell of a lot better than anything made today- even the upscale stuff. I have a 40’s era fan that not only works great but is built like a tank.
But those conventional fans create a horrible buffeting wind sensation! Plus the noise is absoluting excruciating! Everytime I hear or feel a conventional fan I want to put a gun in my mouth. You just have to buy a Dyson. A Dyson 12″ bladeless fan runs a mere $300.
It’s still pretty cool. But not 300 bucks cool.
300 smackeroos for a fan? Is it gold-plated?
No……Plastic.
Ooops, I mean a “State of the art, high tech polymer material”.
I checked out the Dyson fan floor model at Best Buy out of sheer boredom while my GF was buying a camera. What a useless piece of crap. On the highest setting I could just barely feel a breeze just a few feet away. I looked at the price and misread the tag thinking it was thirty dollars and thought it was way too much. Looking again it was really ten-times the price!
“if you really want top-notch “luxurious” quality, even the cheapest low end toaster, wallfe maker, or table fan is a hell of a lot better than anything made today”
+1, jetson_boy. Quality has declined so much over the past couple of decades that the best items are now the ones found for near-free at garage or estate sales.
I’m a tool nut. I use them. I have stuff purchased 40 years ago and there’s nothing
on the market that will equal their quality, with
one caveat…..the absolute top of the line stuff
that is so highly priced you can’t justify the
expense. So I hit the pawn shops and Craigs list
to find the bargains, and there are bargains galore.
Great way of masking inflation - use lower-quality substitutes in the index.
Meant to add - it happens a lot, and the excuse given is that they key the indices to the trends of what people buy. While it’s true that people generally buy crappier tools now - part of the reason is because they can’t afford the good ones, because the prices have gone up so much!
We’ve had pretty good luck with CutCo knives.
They are so good, the ex-wife took our set during the divorce…..
In the 60s, they coined the phrase, “disposable society,” usually said in the same breath as “cheap plastic.” Promoting awareness of this was one of the cornerstones of the countercultures.
Yeah, those “damn hippies.”
Promoting awareness of this was one of the cornerstones of the countercultures.
Yeah, those “damn hippies.”
I’m involved in several local co-ops. Two of them do hands-on work projects around town.
In each of these two groups, there are some real craftsmen. There’s taciturn Charlie, the guy who barely says two words during an entire workshop. But he’s a good stonemason. And has shoulder-length hair.
And there are others like him. Young and old hippies who have, shall we say, an Old School attention to detail. Real fine people to know.
jetson_boy
Very well said and true about older items being made better, and seperate but equal on many high vs. lower price points. “Made In America” actually meant something. God, I miss those days.
I guess I’d agree, but as for common household appliances, who cares?
It’s a toaster. It just makes bread turn brown. It’s barely a step up from a campfire.
My wafflemaker was like $10 at Target and it makes great waffles. The only downside (according to my wife- it’s fine with me) is that it only makes 2 at a time.
Those applicances would have to do a lot more before I would put some measure of quality over the current cost.
Well… The waffle iron I use was my grandmothers. She bought it when she and my Grandfather got married in 1941. It still works and makes some damned- good waffles. This was a cheap waffle iron when it was new. Yet it is a lot better than the junk they make today it seems.
I’m the same way with tools. I have a 65 year old Black and Decker 1/2″ drill. It has a piece of pipe sticking out one side for a handle… which you need because the thing has so much power that it’ll nearly break your arm if it ever gets stuck.
I’m a young guy ( early 30’s) and a cheap-skate at that. Most everything I own is around 40-50 years old because:
A: The old stuff is cheap at yard sales
B: Its usually made better
C: It’ll last longer than I will
D: Incidentally most of it looks cool. My 35 year old Lawn Boy push mower looks awesome and always gets comments. So does my 55′ Mercury. People dig it.
But I’ll bet it weighs 50 pounds….
There’s a reason why they call it a waffle “iron”.
Completely anecdotal evidence here, BUT,
Needless Markup’s catalogs of late have been full of much lower quality goods than in the last ten years, (although the stores still feature better-quality clothing,) with hardly any of their famed over-the-top items featured at all.
The two Los Angeles area stores I occasionally frequent have been nearly empty this last year save for the well-scrubbed, hungry-eyed sales personnel competing for the attentions of the daughters of wealthy Farsis/Paris Hilton bffs there to spread the wealth via competitive shopping.
Nothing like the heydays of yore, and with a much younger/ethnic cliental. Read: not so many trophy wives cruising the sales bins.
Message to the Housing Sales and Finance Crime Syndicate
When you co-opt a very basic human need(housing in this case) and constrain the supply through marketing, forcing buyers to pay multiples of it’s actual worth in order to profit, you’ve got bad karma coming your way.
Message FROM the Housing Sales and Finance Crime Syndicate
“Up yours, we got ours!”
Housing chief outlines help. ~ Bloomberg News ~ August 30, 2010
WASHINGTON — The Obama administration plans to set up an emergency loan program for the unemployed and a government refinancing effort in the next few weeks to help homeowners pay their mortgages after home sales dropped in July, Housing and Urban Development Secretary Shaun Donovan said.
“The July numbers were worse than we expected, worse than the general market expected, and we are concerned,” Donovan said on CNN’s “State of the Union” program. “That’s why we are taking additional steps to move forward.”
The administration will begin a Federal Housing Authority refinancing effort to help borrowers who are struggling to pay their home mortgages, and will start an emergency homeowners’ loan program for unemployed borrowers so they can stay in their homes, Donovan said.
“We’re going to continue to make sure folks have access to home ownership,” he said.
Sales of U.S. new homes unexpectedly dropped in July to the lowest level on record, signaling that even with cheaper prices and reduced borrowing costs the housing market is retreating. Purchases fell 12 percent from June to an annual pace of 276,000, the weakest since the data began in 1963.
Sales of existing houses plunged by a record 27 percent in July as the effects of a government tax credit waned.
New houses sold at an annualized 276k? That one slipped by me, whoa!
Well, more of the same from the DC gang. They have no clue that they’re shooting at a moving target, do they?
The problem is, that’s more taxpayer money, no? It’s a government subsidy. If that isn’t a prime example of “from each according to his ability, to each according to his needs”, I don’t know what is.
Apparently the number of those with little to no ability is just enormous.
The number of those with little to no ability is just enormous.
If you knew just how many are in charge of things, you would either have to self medicate, kill yourself or go crazy so wouldn’t go insane. Because the worse part is that nobody would believe you.
Let me fix that for you….
From each bank according to its ability, to each bank according to its needs.
Think about that 276,000 annualized rate. That is only an average of 460 new homes sold per state per month. Most decent sized cities were selling that or more per month during the bubble. If this is the sales level for the next three or four years, all heck will break loose as unemployment will continue to soar and the bankers and RE hucksters stop greasing the Congress’ pockets.
We all know the PTB will not allow that to happen. Look for the mother of all tax incentives, FHA no money down schemes and whatever else it takes to get those new houses being built again and existing homes sold. I can’t even imagine how they will print enough money to do this. Any of us who have been remotely responsible and paid our bills will be the big losers as we will pay for this one way or another.
You have problem with Corporate Communist Capitalism©®™, comrade?
From each taxpayer according to its ability, to each bank according to its political clout.
I am beginning to understand why so many just opt out of working and take whatever they get from the government, ecofeco. People have been trained that it pays better to be the victim or “helpless” and get special programs designed for them paid for by OPM than it does to have a legitimate job. I guess I am just slower than some of you in realizing that there are no solutions that are going to come from either of the current political parties and there is no leadership from the major corporations to count on either.
We are on our own and they don’t care about our votes as long as they have enough people they can impoverish and then “save” with their programs. I think I might be sick just thinking about it.
Most people I know don’t mind working, they just mind working hard to be poor.
I know quit a few people who put in 60hr weeks of hard labor, but they make over $1500.
I also quite a few people who put in the same hours and labor and make $600.
Guess who’s going to slack off first?
If it were each according to his abillity Hedge Fund Managers and CEO’s would be paying effective tax rates hire than their secrataries.
What we have is from the upper middle class to the dieing poor in order to keep the elite from facing the rath of starving and homeless people.
“… to help homeowners pay their mortgages …”
This money is ultimately designed to help the banks, not the homeowners.
Homeowners are just conduits used by the government to pass money to the banks.
It’s all about saving the banks.
You said that very well.
Thank you.
Thwack! (A nail just got hit on the head. Thanks, combotechie!)
+1
“It’s all about saving the banks.”
Ding ding ding!!!
My favorite recent news-item was the one where Treasury officials outright admitted this fact when meeting with bloggers a couple of weeks ago.
Save A CEO Today
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SiO9lmeOOjM
Got’s to luv da honesty in yo gubmint…
Rep. Eddie Bernice Johnson violated rules, steered scholarships to relatives. The Dallas Morning News
Longtime Dallas congresswoman Eddie Bernice Johnson has awarded thousands of dollars in college scholarships to four relatives and a top aide’s two children since 2005, using foundation funds set aside for black lawmakers’ causes.
The recipients were ineligible under anti-nepotism rules of the Congressional Black Caucus Foundation, which provided the money. And all of the awards violated a foundation requirement that scholarship winners live or study in a caucus member’s district.
Johnson, a Democrat, denied any favoritism when asked about the scholarships last week. Two days later, she acknowledged in a statement released by her office that she had violated the rules but said she had done so “unknowingly” and would work with the foundation to “rectify the financial situation.”
Initially, she said, “I recognized the names when I saw them. And I knew that they had a need just like any other kid that would apply for one.” Had there been more “very worthy applicants in my district,” she added, “then I probably wouldn’t have given it” to the relatives.
Obviously she is qualified for appointment to Secretary of Treasury.
Way to reinforce the stereotype, Congresswoman!
It’s my understanding these unemployment grants (as they stand right now) have a $50,000- cap per homeowner for a max of 24 months. Then what, after this life support?
After that, maybe somebody will have a “light bulb” moment and realize people can’t pay when they don’t have a source of income, like a job.
Not according to a CITI report from 2005. Google “citigroup plutonomy report”
For those of you haven’t seen this, be sure to be sitting down and remove any throw-able objects from the room. You only need to read the first page.
I’m guessing the hoped-for labor market recovery has been pushed out to 24 months…so presumably, at that point, most unemployment “grants” (aka helicopter drops to homeowners without incomes) will be unnecessary.
I wonder how many umemployed homedebtors will actually qualify for these grants? My guess: very few. Like combo would say: its about instilling hope so that those who can will continue to pay their mortgage.
Then what?
Crime, that’s what.
And 50K for 2 years? Maybe in New York, but around here it’s more like 29K.
Good Morning Pal(metto)
I guess addressing the reality of a structurally broken economy would be a vote and a deal (Lobbyists) breaker. Why not just throw good money at lost money, and call it a day. The banks have themselves a sugar daddy.
I saw an ad for a Property Preservation position with BofA, and it said your responsibilities would be 500 properties. Even if it’s just paper pushing, how does one person handle that?
If anyone could handle it, you could, wipeout. And you wouldn’t take any BS from anyone. Why not give it a go? And then ask for more personnel. That’s how you build up a department.
Ok Palmetto I’ll apply, but if I pop a head gasket or have implant implosion, I’ll be looking ya up and…:)
Thanks for the vote of confidence.
Procrastination on Foreclosures, Now ‘Blatant,’ May Backfire
American Banker | Friday, August 27, 2010
By Jeff Horwitz and Kate Berry
Ever since the housing collapse began, market seers have warned of a coming wave of foreclosures that would make the already heightened activity look like a trickle.
The dam would break when moratoriums ended, teaser rates expired, modifications failed and banks finally trained the army of specialists needed to process the volume.
But the flood hasn’t happened. The simple reason is that servicers are not initiating or processing foreclosures at the pace they could be.
The simple explanation is that banks are averse to realizing losses on foreclosures, experts said.
“We can’t have 11% of Californians delinquent and so few foreclosures if regulators are actually forcing banks to clean assets off their books,” O’Toole said.
http://www.americanbanker.com/issues/175_165/foreclosures-modifications-california-
We have one house in my neighborhood where the “owner” took out all the equity and stopped paying 4 years ago, and moved out 3 years ago. The house is falling apart, the pool a health menace. The association cannot get the bank to do anything - the reason? The bank has still not taken possession, it’s still in the name of the guy who moved out 3 years ago! Obviously they don’t want to book the loss. I’d say when the bank finally does, this one house will lose them $500,000. Multiply this by millions of houses. I see dead banks.
“I see dead banks.”
I see dead bondholders, or future Fannie/Freddie losses.
This loan was probably above the Fannie/Freddie limits, which might be why it’s still sitting there. Or the bank knows there was fraud involved on their side, and Fannie/Freddie would reject the insurance claim.
Dead bank walking
They’re all walking the ‘green mile’ right now.
I listening in on a conference call with the head of the county council over the weekend. Most questions were expected - does the council have any role in getting the electric company to improve service so we don’t lose power for a week every time the wind gets beyond gentle breeze, that sort of thing. But one stood out to me. A man who said he was 50 and a computer programmer was upset that he couldn’t get part time work. Seems that 50 is old enough that he can’t physically handle working full time and he wants the county to make sure that he can go to part time even if his employer only wants full time employees. The politician said something vague about how there are all sorts of education opportunities around so he could take classes to get trained in another job if he wants. Guy didn’t mention any specific disease though he did talk about having a repetitive stress injury. I thought it was a little odd. I wish they had stayed with him to get his reaction to here answer…
Yes polly, its insane what employers do today, between wanting you to spend $2000 on a new laptop with legal software just to be an intern, to law firms blatantly wanting only recent college grads, now this.
I’ll bet the employer is thinking, he cant live on part time unless he lives with his mom….so no way will he get hired.
Oh and those guv paid educational opportunities, they are non existent for anyone that had real jobs and an education, doesn’t matter if you are 25 or 55….if you were a parking lot attendant, doorman, babysitter, or just got out of jail, it’s for those people.
Back in the day, an engineer had to provide his own sliderule, pen and briefcase.
Construction workers own all their own tools. Teachers sometimes cough up hundreds of dollars/year in low income areas.
Yeah, but at least they get paid.
Don’t forget the pocket protector….
She wasn’t talking about government paid education/training though the community college is certainly subsidized. No, she was talking about going to the Johns Hopkins extension and stuff like that. Expensive, presumably. I don’t see how prefering full time employees is all that big a deal. Aren’t we more concerned about employers trying to dump employees into part time so they can stop paying benefits?
I’m not even sure that working part time would be considered a reasonable accomodation under the Americans with Disabilities Act if he qualified for that. The law requires that you be able to do the entire job with a reasonable accomodation. If he had carpal tunnel the employer might be required to provide him with an ergnomic keyboard or something like that, or let him work flex hours so he could rest his wrists at various times during the day, but to just not do the whole job? That isn’t the requirement of the law at all.
Yes polly, its insane what employers do today, between wanting you to spend $2000 on a new laptop with legal software just to be an intern, to law firms blatantly wanting only recent college grads, now this.
Perhaps you should try other areas of the country where employers don’t have these same requirements…
I get that you have things tying you to NYC, but it’s not up to the employers there to cater to you. If you find their demands to be unreasonable, then you should look elsewhere.
+1. I feel your pain, DJ, but my guess is that most of us have to choose between employment and where we’d prefer to live.
Drmminj:
Its not nyc its you have to pay to be an intern…….that’s what is different today
a few years ago…the employer had the computers and you worked on it at their place of business. Come on this is a non paying job……
Programmer? Severe carpal tunnel. It can be fixed only once and that’s it. Some people try twice but it’s never really the same again. After the second time, you’re finished.
As for back to school, his biggest problem is going to be age discrimination. No amount of schooling is going to fix that.
Procrastination on Foreclosures, Now ‘Blatant,’ May Backfire
American Banker
By Jeff Horwitz and Kate Berry
Friday, August 27, 2010
Moreover, Freddie says a good 14% of homes that are seriously delinquent are vacant. In such circumstances, eventual recovery values rapidly deteriorate.
Defaulted borrowers were spending an average of 469 days in their home after ceasing to make payments as of July 31, so the financial attraction of strategic defaults increases.
One possible way banks are dealing with that last threat is through what O’Toole calls “foreclosure roulette,” in which banks maintain a large pool of borrowers in foreclosure but foreclose on a small number at random.
O’Toole said the resulting confusion would make it harder for borrowers to evaluate the costs and benefits of defaulting and fan fears that foreclosure was imminent.
Widespread Fear Freezes Housing MarketBy JOE NOCERA
Published: August 27, 2010
You have to wonder sometimes what they’re smoking over there at the National Association of Realtors.
On Tuesday, the self-proclaimed “voice for real estate” released its “existing home sales” figures for July. They were gruesome. Sales were down 27 percent from the previous month, and down 26 percent from a year ago.
Yet here was Lawrence Yun, the association’s chief economist, trying to turn lemons into lemonade: “Given the rock-bottom mortgage interest rates and historically high housing affordability conditions, the pace of a sales recovery could pick up quickly,
“In the financial markets, a lack of liquidity immediately leads to falling prices,” said Lou Barnes, the founder of Boulder West Financial Services. (Boulder West was acquired last year by Premier Mortgage Group.) “In the real estate market, something different happens,” he added. “Illiquid real estate markets freeze.” That is what is happening now. For months, the Obama tax credit had been the only grease in the housing market. Now that it is gone, the buying and selling of houses is essentially grinding to a halt.
The prospective buyer, for instance, has two good rationales to fear buying a new home. One is the unemployment rate.
The second reason is that, Mr. Yun notwithstanding, most people simply do not believe that housing prices are even close to hitting bottom. “In the Bay Area, a house that was worth $300,000 a decade ago became a million-dollar home,” said Greg Fielding, a real estate broker and blogger. “Now it is listed at $800,000.” That price, he suggested, was still unrealistically high. The seller, meanwhile, doesn’t want to face the fact that his or her home is too richly priced, and won’t sell at a more realistic price — which may well be below his or her mortgage debt.
There is also an immense amount of inventory that has yet to hit the market but will, sooner or later. People in the real estate business have taken to calling this “the shadow inventory.” It consists of homes for which the owners have stopped paying the mortgage but the banks haven’t foreclosed on yet, foreclosed properties that have not yet been put up for sale, homes with modified mortgages that the owners still can’t afford and will soon default on and so on.
http://www.nytimes.com/2010/08/28/business/economy/28nocera.html
Lying Larry Yun aka FunYun has nothing on Pinnochio David Lereah.
They need to hire Bender from Futurama to be their spokesperson.
“Whelp, we’re boned! Nice knowin’ ya!”
Yet here was Lawrence Yun, the association’s chief economist, trying to turn lemons into lemonade: “Given the rock-bottom mortgage interest rates and historically high housing affordability conditions, the pace of a sales recovery could pick up quickly,
I get the impression that the only question people like this can think is, “What will it to take to bring the market back?”
To them, the idea of years-long stagnation is truly unthinkable. It cannot be thought. There are no receptors for it in their cognitive wiring. The words themselves do not hold meaning, as if they were cut loose from their definitions in the dictionary and left to be kicked out of the way while one shuffles around the office scanning sales reports and reading market surveys.
“It is difficult to get a man to understand something when his salary depends upon his not understanding it.”
Upton Sinclair
* ABREAST OF THE MARKET
* AUGUST 30, 2010
The Decline of the P/E Ratio
By BEN LEVISOHN
As investors fixate on the global forces whipsawing the markets, one fundamental measure of stock-market value, the price/earnings ratio, is shrinking in size and importance.
And the diminution might not stop for a while.
The P/E ratio, thrust into prominence during the 1930s by value investors Benjamin Graham and David Dodd, measures the amount of money investors are paying for a company’s earnings. Typically, companies that post strong earnings growth enjoy richer stock prices and fatter P/E ratios than those that don’t.
But while U.S. companies announced record profits during the second quarter, and beat forecasts by a comfortable 10% margin, on average, the stock market has dropped 5% this month.
The stock market’s average price/earnings ratio, meanwhile, is in free fall, having plunged about 36% during the past year, the largest 12-month decline since 2003. It now stands at about 14.9, compared with 23.1 last September, based on trailing 12-month earnings results. Based on profit expectations over the next 12 months, the P/E ratio has fallen to 12.2 from about 14.5 in May.
So what explains the contraction? In short, economic uncertainty. A steady procession of bad news, from the European financial crisis to fears of deflation in the U.S., has prompted analysts to cut profit forecasts for 2011.
“The market is worrying not just about a slowdown, but worse,” said Tobias Levkovich, chief U.S. equity strategist at Citigroup Global Markets in New York. “People want clarity before they make a decision with their money.”
///
I like price / book, quick ratio (assets minus inventory over liabilities), and debt / equity.
Or
One one believes the “foward” earnings
or
P/E’s usually get into the single digits in the depth of a hard recesssion by historical standards…
P/Es “measures the amount of money investors are paying for a company’s earnings”.
There it is. Buy when P/Es are low, sell when they are high.
So what explains the contraction? In short, economic uncertainty.
Trillions of $$ of stimulus will do that for you. When you apply layer after layer of spackling to the economy, it’s hard to tell just how good the real wall is underneath.
(P.S. eventually enough spackling will simply bring the wall down - whether it was good to start with or not.)
Price/Expectations.
This was predicted by HBB. However - the “backlash” was not…
————-
Retirement Haven Hunts Youthful Violators (Contraband children in retirement community)
New York Times | August 28, 2010 | MARC LACEY
SUN CITY, Ariz. — Bill Szentmiklosi …is on the lookout for that most egregious of all infractions: children.
He peers over fences and ambles into backyards where children are allowed to visit but not live.
Szentmiklosi, 60, a retired police officer has remade himself as the chief of Sun City’s age police.
Szentmiklosi kept a sharp eye for any obvious signs of youth. It could be a stray ball, a misplaced pint-size flip-flop. In sniffing out children he relies on his decades as an officer.
He tells the suspected violator that a neighbor has complained and he asks gentle questions to get to the bottom of things, all the while peering around for signs of youthful activity. His work is helped by a simple reality: children are hard to hide.
The number of age violations in Sun City, a town of more than 40,000 residents outside Phoenix, has been rising, from 33 in 2007 to 121 in 2008 to 331 last year.
Mr. Szentmiklosio knows that despite his patrols Sun City is probably harboring more children that have not yet been detected. The economic crisis is aggravating the problem, he said, forcing families to take desperate measures to cut costs, even if it means surreptitiously moving into Grandma and Grandpa’s retirement bungalow.
If Sun City does not police its population, it could lose its special status and be forced to open the floodgates.
The end result would be the introduction of schools to Sun City, then higher taxes and, finally, an end to the Sun City that has drawn retirees here for the last half-century.
“You can have children visit for 90 days per year. That means if you have 10 grandchildren, each one can visit, but they can only stay nine days each.”
Ps - Nice to be a police officer, fully retired on a great pension at the ripe age of 56…
…with nothing to do with your time but chase down children.
And TASER them, too.
What about kid-sniffing dogs, a spiked-helmet, and jack-boots for the guard.
“You can have children visit for 90 days per year. That means if you have 10 grandchildren, each one can visit, but they can only stay nine days each.”
Nice. And people actually pay for that kind of Nazi lifestyle huh? Ha ha ha. In every neighborhood I’ve been in around here you rarely even see the kids outside. They’ll be on the field w/the coach and their equipment or at the gym playing basketball but there are no pick up games in the streets. You try to peel the kids away from the screen and get them outside but there are only empty streets because either their friends are at their summer homes, at summer camp or they’re on the computer. During the school year, the homework/music/sports rotation keeps them busy till bedtime. There’s an ability to create something out of nothing that we had that these kids don’t but they’re not out bothering other adults, that’s for sure.
Nice. And people actually pay for that kind of Nazi lifestyle huh?
Apparently they pay less, as they have an exemption from having public schools in the area, and as a result lower property taxes (I’m guessing, based on the article).
I”d sign up to be in a community like that. Not sure about the means of enforcement, but if they need to do that to keep their exemption, then it makes sense.
Just like intellectual property. You have to actively protect it, else you lose your monopoly on it.
Yes, they do not pay “any” public school taxes in Sun City.
Yeah! Forget YOUR responsibility to the rest of society once YOUR kids have been through the public school system. Good on you, all you old selfish pricks in Sun City!
I think if they’re not paying for schools in Sun City, they should have enough left over money that they don’t need any Social security, medicare, or medicade either. Think we could get that law passed?
Speaking as someone who has lived in AZ for almost a quarter century, I can say that your sentiments on Sun City are widely shared. A lot of us think that they’re selfish old farts too.
Um… you do realize that public schools are generally funded locally, right?
If there are no public schools in Sun City, then who exactly are they ripping off by not paying taxes for them there?
eah! Forget YOUR responsibility to the rest of society once YOUR kids have been through the public school system. Good on you, all you old selfish pricks in Sun City!
Actually, I’m only 32, and have no kids, and will not choose to have kids in the future.
I’m just sick of subsidizing everyone else’s lifestyle. Kids, houses, toys…f**k it. I’d much rather have a choice to live somewhere with no kids, and not be compelled to subsidize someone else’s decision to have offspring. Heck, I’d still be subsidizing via federal tax code (deductions for dependents, head of household, child tax credit, etc).
Good luck with that. I think the middle of the Amazon might be able to meet your requirements, but if you want the benefits of civilization and technology, they you’re going to have to pay for it.
Or too put it another way, would you rather pay for more prisons or more schools? Clean water or cholera?
Or too put it another way, would you rather pay for more prisons or more schools?
Society (you - us) will pay, one way or another.
Don’t like the social contract? Find yourself an island.
Don’t like the social contract? Find yourself an island.
Are you arguing the social contract has changed in the last 50 years? Why has the amount that one must pay to “fulfill the social contract” changed, and changed considerably?
I love the “don’t like it - then leave” position. Why didn’t all the progressives do that 50 years ago? Stop changing this country. You want more social programs, more safety nets? Go move somewhere else. Stop trying to change this country. Oh, wait, that doesn’t apply to you, only to people like me, who want to roll the size and budget of government programs back 10-20 years?
Tell me, how much should I contribute out of my pocket to fulfill this “social contract”? Is $100 enough? $200? $10,000?!
I pay, and I pay plenty. But I’m told that it’s not enough - I owe society a bigger burden, but no one ever tells me why what I’ve been giving isn’t enough, nor what might ever be “enough”.
Quit moving the goal posts. Give me a number, and let’s discuss it. But to simply say “You’re unhappy about paying whatever random number the government says you need to pay?! Go move to a f’n island!!” is ridiculous.
You pay more because the rich pay less than they ever have.
http://www.truthandpolitics.org/top-rates.php (look at the footnotes and references.)
And many corporation pay nothing at all.
http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSN1249465620080812
But let’s blame the leebruls, shall we?
Tell me, how much should I contribute out of my pocket to fulfill this “social contract”? Is $100 enough? $200? $10,000?!
I pay, and I pay plenty…. Quit moving the goal posts.
Dude I hear you.
The reason why you pay so much is because you are a victim of a country that has the audacity to require a membership fee.
Whatever you pay is always going to be too much because you are entitled to reap rewards without having to pay for past and future altruistic sacrifices and democratic (socialist) decisions.
The goal posts don’t ever have to be moved because they will always be too far away for the producers like you who, because of their very birth and smooth moves, created a reality in which they alone advanced communities, social values and civilization. Thank you for your work.
You are being punished now for you being so intelligent and wise that you were smart enough to have a job right now while so many parasites have chosen to not have a job.
We feel your pain as a victim.
But let’s blame the leebruls, shall we?
I’ve not blamed anyone. I just said stop trying to take more and more of my money, and that I’m sick of funding everyone else’s lifestyle. Where in that is blame for any political ideology?
Rio, I credit you for your great use of sarcasm, but it’s the same crap over and over.
It doesn’t matter how much it is, I have no right to object, and the gov’t should be free to take it all from me and redistribute to others.
Apparently I’m not entitled to any of the money that I have sacrificed and work hard to earn.
Yet somehow, those who screwed around in school, focused on partying in college instead of getting an education, who simply don’t even care to TRY to work a job…they’re entitled to it.
That’s the position you’re espousing..and you see no problem with that? Seriously?
If that’s not what you’re espousing, then please tell me…what amount of the money that I have worked hard for my whole life, and continue to work hard for, do I, by the grace of the government, get to keep for myself, for my enjoyment and well being, and for the causes that I see fit?
Eco:
I said this many times Corporations should pay NO income taxes….that also means if they lose a ton of money they get no tax credits or rebates either…. There are so many deals done just for the tax benefits..tax loss carry forwards and behinds…..all unproductive wasting of capital
And many corporation pay nothing at all.
Rio, I credit you for your great use of sarcasm, but it’s the same crap over and over.
Thanks! And of course it is repetitive because it’s answering your same, singular and repetitive line of complaining. But I do attempt different deliveries.
It doesn’t matter how much it is, I have no right to object, and the gov’t should be free to take it all from me and redistribute to others.
Of course you can object. And I can object to your “victimized” objections. And the government doesn’t “take it all” from you. “Take it all”?? “All”?
Apparently I’m not entitled to any of the money that I have sacrificed and work hard to earn.
“Not entitled to ANY of the money”???? “Any”?
Yet somehow, those who screwed around in school, focused on partying in college instead of getting an education, who simply don’t even care to TRY to work a job…they’re entitled to it.
They don’t “try”? And they’re entitled to “all” your money?
That’s the position you’re espousing..and you see no problem with that? Seriously?
Obviously it’s not what I’m espousing. Seriously.
If that’s not what you’re espousing, then please tell me…what amount of the money that I have worked hard for my whole life, and continue to work hard for, do I, by the grace of the government, get to keep for myself, for my enjoyment and well being, and for the causes that I see fit?
Middle class taxes could stay about the same. The very rich’s taxes should go up and the super-rich’s taxes should go WAY up. (Taxes for the top 1/10 of 1% of earners are almost at an all time low while the super-rich have received most all the benefits the past 30 years but unlike the past, the super-rich did not create US jobs but rather Chinese jobs while at the same time the super-rich gutted the US economy.)
Not to mention all the pediophiles and kidnappers that live in the area…………lol
When in college, my best friend had grown up in Casa Grande. The house (ok it was really a trailer) he grew up in was just a regular neighborhood. Eventually it became a gated, age restricted community.
Mom continued to live there, and us college kids continued to visit. Mom was grandfathered in. So we used to sit up on the block walls and drink beer. You could almost see steam coming out the neighbors ears. Mom loved us, she didn’t want anything to do with that stuck up bunch. I think mom’s only complaint is that she was 50 years older than us, and had trouble keeping up.
Ever been chased by a golf cart with a flashing light? Oh, good times.
Study shows that people who drink excessively live longer and healthier.
God is in his heaven, all is right in the world:
Heavy Drinkers Outlive Nondrinkers
Studies on alcohol consumption have consistently found that drinkers outlive nondrinkers, a discrepancy that some have long said has to do with the likelihood that former heavy drinkers were counted as abstainers. Yet a new study that controlled for a variety of factors suggests that “abstaining from alcohol does actually tend to increase one’s risk of dying even when you exclude former drinkers,” reports Time. The most shocking part of the paper is the suggestion that even heavy drinkers live longer than those who never pick up an alcoholic drink. The researchers found that mortality rate were highest for those who had never been drinkers, while moderate drinkers had the lowest rate over a 20-year period. It’s not clear why not drinking alcohol would lead to a shorter life, but it might have something to do with the way alcohol plays a role in social interactions, which are critical to maintaining good mental and physical health.
Read original story in Time | Monday, Aug. 30, 2010
Deadbeat busybody should pay his property tax before snooping around…
http://www.maricopa.gov/Assessor/ParcelApplication/Detail.aspx?ID=200-94-850
then click on “View Tax Information”, the creeping cop owes more than a grand from last year.
When I used to peruse floor plans online, I found quite a few nice developments. There were actual SFH cottages smaller than 2000 sq, real yards, picket fences… everything you would expect from a Leave-it-to-Beaver neighborhood. And invariably, the development was restricted to 55+. Working-age families were limited to townhomes (cramped) and McMansions (too big and cramped). Am I the only one thinks there is something deeply wrong here?
Oh, and could you imagine being a kid living in one of these places? Growing up “on the lam” can’t be good for the psyche.
Oh, and could you imagine being a kid living in one of these places? Growing up “on the lam” can’t be good for the psyche.
————-
My SIL bought a 2-seater Smart car to appease her California conscience, even though they are a 4-person family. When she takes her 2 daughters to school, the youngest (4yo) has to ‘duck’ when they see a police officer due to no seat belt.
They were visiting recently and she was in the back of our small SUV, legally seat belted in. She still continued to ‘duck’ when the cops were around. I bet she grows up with an unhealthy fear of traffic cops.
She still continued to ‘duck’ when the cops were around.
Maybe that type of a reaction will serve her well someday soon.
Anyone Could be Next
The U.S. is Now a Police State
By PAUL CRAIG ROBERTS
http://www.counterpunch.org/roberts02102010.html
Americans have been losing the protection of law for years. In the 21st century the loss of legal protections accelerated with the Bush administration’s “war on terror,” which continues under the Obama administration and is essentially a war on the Constitution and U.S. civil liberties.
The Bush regime was determined to vitiate habeas corpus in order to hold people indefinitely without bringing charges. The regime had acquired hundreds of prisoners by paying a bounty for “terrorists.” Afghan warlords and thugs responded to the financial incentive by grabbing unprotected people and selling them to the Americans.
This shows how far the police state has advanced. A presidential appointee in the Obama administration tells an important committee of Congress that the executive branch has decided that it can murder American citizens abroad if it thinks they are a threat.
Ironic, isn’t it, that “the war on terror” to make us safe ends in a police state with the government declaring the right to murder American citizens who it regards as a threat.
I’m sure that the managerial class thinks its a worthwhile tradeoff. After all, it makes it easier to control the unwashed.
That guy who runs wikileaks has a whole new problem now. I guess I’ll cancel my trip to Europe next year.
This is also something else that began in 1980s. No, wait, I’m wrong. It began in the late 1970s when they decided that the Bill of Rights was some damn socialeest/commie/hippie agenda.
Yes, you still have rights… if you can afford them.
California conscience?
Smart Car: 33 on city and 41 on the highway.
My Corolla: 28 on 75% city driving, and 42 on the highway.
(clocked it myself twice)
Mom will never be able to carpool with neighboring kids, or even carry both girls when they grow older. And IMO that’s not enough gain in mileage to justify packing those kids in unsafely. Even if the frame can sustain the impact of a crash, wouldn’t the impact make the car fly? With the girl not belted in? Scary thought…
Au contraire………effing with the “GTF off my lawn” crowd can lead to all kinds of entertainment possibilities.
“If Sun City does not police its population, it could lose its special status and be forced to open the floodgates.”
I don’t see how these retirement communities are going to be able to remain 55+ forever. The folks buying in now are boomers. When they pass on or move to nursing homes, demand will take a hit since the generation to follow is smaller. I guess that’s their heirs problem, right?
Anyway, friends bought into one of those communities about a few years ago. The land is leased for 80 years. They spent over $200K and they don’t own the land.
When I was in my mid 20s I got my first job out of college in a small town. There was a retirement apartment complex in that town, but only two or three tenants who were old. The owners allowed young people to live there. LOL - there was lawn bowling and a big cafeteria style place that was not used. Kind of freaky. But then there were other young people who moved to that apartment complex at the same time I did, so I did not feel so bad.
Another thing about the Boomers — they’re not as interested in age-specific communities as their parents and grandparents were.
If anything, they like having their kids and grandkids around. So, look for some real rackets to be raised over not being able to live with them as they get older.
I bought my retirement house in a mixed development. Much more natural that way. Plus there are always teenagers around to hire to mow the lawns and feed the cats when you are on vacation.
I KNEW that child-catcher wasn’t just a ficticious charactor from Chitty-Chitty Bang Bang.
Maybe before the cops haul off these unwanted kids on behalf of these AARP geezers, he could at least give them a heartfelt apology for the staggering debts their heedless elders have saddled them with.
This one scared the beezeuses out of me when I was a kid:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Child_Catcher
Me too!!
I didn’t know Ian Fleming (James Bond creator) wrote Chitty Chitty Bang Bang. That’s even more surprising than finding out Neil Diamond wrote Red Red Wine.
Szentmiklosi kept a sharp eye for any obvious signs of youth. It could be a stray ball, a misplaced pint-size flip-flop. In sniffing out children he relies on his decades as an officer.
This sounds like a great beginning for some creepy modern folklore. Pergraniteel Trolls and witches with child-sized Viking ovens.
That kind of stuff.
Late payments on auto loans fall in 2nd quarter
Auto loan delinquencies fall in 2nd quarter, while the number of new loans rises.
NEW YORK (AP) — In another sign that borrowers have taken tighter control of their debt, late payments on auto loans dropped in the second quarter.
The rate of payments 60 days or more past due dropped to 0.53 percent of outstanding auto loans in the April-to-June period, from 0.73 percent a year ago, according to credit reporting agency TransUnion.
The drop in the auto loan delinquency rate mirrors declines in late credit card and mortgage payments, according to TransUnion’s review of 27 million credit reports in its database. Its records represent about 10 percent of the population with active credit accounts.
Meanwhile, new loans written during the quarter rose 18.7 percent, TransUnion said. And the average size of an auto loan edged up slightly, to $12,643 from $12,560 a year ago.
The change reflects an uptick in car purchases, said Peter Turek, automotive vice president in TransUnion’s financial services group. Although the number of new loans hasn’t returned to pre-recession levels, he said the increase in originations means that buyers are taking advantage of automakers’ aggressive sales promotions.
“Consumers are very savvy, and they’re recognizing good deals when they see them,” Turek said. Buyers are also leaning more toward used cars over new cars, he said.
The delinquency rate rose in only three states: Rhode Island, where it reached 0.74 percent; Utah, at 0.71 percent; and Montana, at 0.38 percent. Overall, rates were below the national average in 28 states and Washington, D.C.
Auto purchases and keeping payments up are easier with a strategic default. What a puff piece.
This is collage of Bernanke’s denial of a housing bubble in 2005. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9QpD64GUoXw
“Meanwhile, new loans written during the quarter rose 18.7 percent, TransUnion said. And the average size of an auto loan edged up slightly, to $12,643 from $12,560 a year ago.”
Sounds like people are buying cheaper cars and are being forced to make down payments, which might be the real reason delinquencies are down.
Buh-bye $40,000, $800/month SUV, hello $15,000, $300/month new compact or used car.
Bought a used truck a couple of weeks ago.
Afterwards, the Used Car lot guy was saying that the auction supply of 3-5 year old cars with 70-80K miles is non existant. Says auction prices for cars with 120K miles are the same as what they were paying for 80K mile cars three years ago.
I’ve noticed something similar. I sold my old Mitsubishi and am looking to pick up a 2006 EVO to replace it. Those things are simply not depreciating. Right now I’m stuck driving my wife’s old minivan, but there’s no way I’m paying just about as much for a 4 year old car with 50k miles as I’d have paid for it new. Meanwhile the Mercedes my wife bought had depreciated like crazy…maybe for good reason :-). We’ll see, I guess…
Before I bought the truck, I was looking at a 2006 Civic Si, 56K miles.
Asking price at the local Honda store? $16,000.
I need to start plotting a “That’s what I paid for my first house” dollar/time graph…..
IMO Honda products such as Civics don’t depreciate enough to make me want to buy them used, thanks to their popularity amongst the “tuners”. We’ve owned a first generation Acura Legend and first generation Honda Odyssey since they both depreciated a lot before we bought them. If I really wanted a Civic I’d just buy a new one. I like the late model 4 door Si. If I could just get it in AWD and turbo :-).
Bought my current truck with 6k miles on the odometer in 2007 for 10k off the sticker price of a new one. Now I’d be hard pressed to find one at all. Saw some SUVs with 10-20k miles on them marked at 2k under the sticker for brand new versions.
Now I’d be hard pressed to find one at all.
Thank your federal government and their “cash for clunkers” program.
Can’t possibly have a pool of used cars for us fiscally responsible folks to buy. Nope…scap them and force everyone to buy new.
It’s going to be awhile before we get ‘new to us’ cars again. Gotta wait for the supply to be replenished and the consumers to be clamoring for new vehicles.
We lucked out and needed to trade to ‘family friendly’ cars in early 2008 when the used car market was still viable.
“the Used Car lot guy was saying that the auction supply of 3-5 year old cars with 70-80K miles is non existant”
Probably because most 3-5 year old cars run like a clock and their owners are willing to trade them in for a new one, especially if they’re paid for.
Some auto loans can be refinanced. Kicking the clunker down the road.
“Consumers are very savvy, and they’re recognizing good deals when they see them,” Turek said. Buyers are also leaning more toward used cars over new cars, he said.
No they aren’t, they just don’t have a choice any more.
Bernanke Faces Skepticism on Policy Tools, May Need Fiscal Aid.
(Bloomberg)
Federal Reserve officials face another round of reports projected to show weakening growth amid skepticism they have the firepower to deliver on Chairman Ben S. Bernanke’s pledge to avoid a relapse into recession.
Bernanke, in his Aug. 27 speech to central bankers and economists in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, made his strongest statement yet that the Fed alone can’t keep the recovery going. “Strong and stable” growth will “require appropriate and effective responses from economic policy makers across a wide spectrum” as well as private-sector leaders, he said.
While Bernanke said the Fed’s remaining tools, including asset purchases, will work if needed, some attendees at the annual symposium said during the weekend that the effects of such quantitative-easing measures may be weak or that fiscal policy should play a bigger role. Pressure for action may build this week as economists predict data to show hiring, manufacturing and household purchases cooled further in August.
More Go Without Life Insurance
Nearly a third of U.S. households have no life-insurance coverage, the highest percentage in more than four decades, according to research firm Limra.
About 35 million U.S. households neither own their own life-insurance policies nor are covered under employer-sponsored plans, up from the 24 million, or 22% of households, without coverage in 2004, according to the study this year by Limra, of Windsor, Conn.
Limra is an industry-funded research organization that has conducted periodic surveys of ownership trends since 1960.
The percentage without life insurance is a sign of the financial pressures on middle-income families as the economy struggles.
The rise reflects tight household budgets, loss of employer-provided coverage as a result of layoffs, and cutbacks by some employers in their benefits packages, Limra said.
Half of the respondents in the latest survey said they needed more life insurance, but many haven’t bought it because their financial priorities include paying off debt.
Among households with children under 18, four in 10 respondents said they would immediately have trouble meeting living expenses if a primary wage earner died, and another three in 10 would have trouble keeping up with expenses after several months.
Lets see here:
Cigarettes: $100 a month
Booze: $100 a month
Iphone with data plan: $100 a month
FIOS internet and cable: $100 a month
Term Life Insurance to take care of my family: $35 a month…
Which one gets cut?
+1.
“Cigarettes: $100 a month”
That`s a light smoker, cigarettes went from $25 a carton to $50 a carton in Fl. since Obama was inaugurated. First increase was federal tax then Crist jumped on the bandwagon.
“Term Life Insurance to take care of my family: $35 a month…”
That’s true If:
You are young
You are in good health (no hypertension, etc.)
You have ideal weight
FWIW I don’t lnow anyone who owns an iPhone. Whenever I see someone who cant take eyes of his or her iPhone or generic knockoff they tend to be very young and single, hence no need for life insurance.
I’l guessing that the bulk of the uninsured are middle aged folks who have had “career adjustments” and who have had their 15 year term policy expire and were shocked by the high cost of renewing it, especially if their health is imperfect (like being slightly overweight or having mild hypertension). I’m guessing that in their cases it might have been a choice between making the car payment and life insurance.
Yes…..they laughed when I signed up for a “Universal Life” policy.
At least I still have life insurance.
I have no life insurance. Why would I? I’m a never-married guy with no kids.
I used to be a SINK although lately it’s more of a NINK.
Umm, well I certainly don’t resemble that statement. I love my iPhone!
I’m not surprised by this. People are living longer and cars are more safe and that is coupled with the fact that life insurance is run through insurance companies whom the average person’s experience with is that you pay and when it comes time for them to help you out, you get next to nothing.
If you are going to gamble whether or not you are going to get some big cash out of an unexpected event, the casino is way more fun and fair.
I’m not surprised by this. People are living longer and cars are more safe and that is coupled with the fact that life insurance is run through insurance companies whom the average person’s experience with is that you pay and when it comes time for them to help you out, you get next to nothing.
Methinks this may be why long-term care insurance isn’t proving to be a hot seller. Something about it not being there for you when you need it.
And it works too, because then you’re too old and sick to fight back.
Count me as someone who is life insurance-free. Why? Because I’m single and have no dependents, that’s why.
Now, you may be thinking that life insurance sales critters would be avoiding me like the plague. Nope. Matter of fact, I got the LI sales pitch when I last looked into changing homeowner’s insurance carriers.
We don’t have life insurance. We took the money
and used it to further our properties and other
investments. If I go before my wife, she’s so set
for life it’s not even funny and I envision every
no good SOB worthless slob running around her
with their tongues dragging on the ground.
If I go before my wife, she’s so set
for life it’s not even funny
Could I possibly get her #, you know, just in case?
How many of us are even living w/someone to worry about after our deaths? The number of single member households has been exploding. Check out never married, divorced and widowed numbers.
http://www.census.gov/population/socdemo/hh-fam/cps2009/tabA1-all.xls
A very dear friend was suddenly widowed at age 37. Her husband keeled over. Massive heart attack.
She was left to raise the four kids herself.
From what I recall from our conversations about his life insurance policy, it wasn’t that generous. She still had to hustle her butt off to keep the kids fed and sheltered.
Sell Signal on 36% Profit Increase Has Analysts in Math Denial
Meyer Shields says earnings at Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway Inc. will increase the most since 2006 this year. He’s also telling investors to sell the shares because the economic recovery is weakening.
The Stifel Nicolaus & Co. analyst has plenty of company. For the first time since at least 1997, fewer than 29 percent of ratings for stocks covered by brokerages worldwide are “buys,” according to 159,919 recommendations compiled by Bloomberg. Analysts are turning more pessimistic even as they push up estimates for profit growth among Standard & Poor’s 500 Index companies to 36 percent, the highest since 1988.
“People are sitting on a fence,” said Paul Zemsky, the New York-based head of asset allocation for ING Investment Management, which oversees $550 billion. “When I go and talk to our equity analysts, they look at the companies and say, ‘Boy these companies look pretty good, earnings are OK, they have plenty of cash. What if there’s a double dip?’”
“The world is a dangerous place to live not because of the people who are evil, but because of the people who don’t do anything about it.”
-Albert Einstein
But the people that are evil make sure other people can’t do anything about it.
That is so true.The politicians here in CA are totally screwing people over and they dont have the balls to do anything.They are so scared of the govt.
Considering you don’t have any rights anymore, they should be.
What did Albert Einstein do about the Nazis? He ran away to a better place (America)…
FWIW - he was a strong proponent for the Ultimate End to WWII. His letter to FDR, in concern that the Germans were developing nukes, is what really got the Manhattan Project going. So he at least did take some action. He wasn’t exactly young enough to be on the front lines (nor would it have been appropriate, given his abilities).
Oh yes, you can find a good quote for anything and good quotes for not voting - see Butters’ post about not voting yesterday. The 16 minute Youtube video of Stefan Molyneux is convincing enough. I recommend listening to it.
Someone will always be elected or propositions passed or failed whether you participate or not.
Exactly. But considering that popular votes that go against what the PTB want are often rescinded by a court, I see no difference.
But considering that popular votes that go against what the PTB want are often rescinded by a court
Examples?
I’m hoping you’re not referring to things that are ruled unconstitutional….because the whole point of our system of government is to protect against the tyranny of the majority.
My god, have you EVER heard of Google?
Ever?
“overturned public votes”
Never mind. It appears that Google is overwhelmed with the circus of Prop 8 being overturned so a general search fails.
Try:
State votes overturned
City votes overturned
County votes overturned.
You will still have to dig to get past the Prop 8 hysteria.
My god, have you EVER heard of Google?
eco, if you want to make a point, perhaps you should be specific about it…
Are you b*tching about the 2000 presidential election? Or Prop 8? Or something else?
Any point you’re making is lost in general rhetoric.
“yeah, this bad thing happened once - I won’t tell you, but you’ll know..heck, just google it”. Doesn’t work so well.
Are you referencing a popular vote that was overturned by the courts on something other than constitutional grounds?
We’re not a democracy. Just because the public votes for something doesn’t make it law, nor binding. If you have an example that we should all be up in arms about, then let’s hear it. Otherwise, you’re really adding nothing of substance here.
Foreclosures numbers accounting question:
How are “deed-in-lieu” title reassignments accounted for in the reported statistics?
The reason I ask is that I have firsthand knowledge that banks are agressively pursuing deed-in-lieus here in Florida and they happen really fast once the FB agrees to do it.
KPBS News just reported that 1/2 a million of San Diego’s 3m residents (one out of six) live near or below the federal poverty line. I find this rather shocking for a city where housing prices remain way above affordable levels compared to home prices in other U.S. cities.
The San Diego Food Bank reports requests for food at all-time high
Layoffs, bankruptcies and other economic woes are leading causes
By Janine Zúñiga, UNION-TRIBUNE
Saturday, August 28, 2010 at 10:45 a.m.
Jim Hodges, right, and his mother Vermell Hodges, 83, pick up fruits and vegetables and other staples at the Samoa Independent Church in Lemon Grove. The church is a distribution center for the San Diego Food Bank.
Layoffs, bankruptcies and other effects of the naggingly ailing economy are leading a record number of county residents to seek out donated food, the county’s leading food-relief organization reported Friday.
Record need
The San Diego Food Bank said its distributions are at an all-time high. In the just-completed fiscal year, the 33-year-old nonprofit group handed out 15.3 million pounds of food, a 56 percent increase from the 9.1 million pounds two years earlier.
The soaring demand may not end soon, said Mitch Mitchell, chairman of the Food Bank.
“When I took over in 2006, we were providing food to 200,000 people per month,” Mitchell said. “Now, we provide food for 340,000 people per month and we are expecting our lines to continue to grow. People are running out of savings, foreclosures are growing, gasoline prices are rising.”
…
Cities with the biggest distribution increases are:
City / Increase in %
Lemon Grove / 436%
Vista / 368%
Imperial Beach / 234%
Spring Valley / 219%
Ramona / 80%
San Diego / 72%
San Marcos / 61%
Jacumba / 55%
National City / 52%
Right now it’s still called the Great Recession. How soon will it be known by its rightful name- The Greater Depression(TM)?
Richard Posner’s latest book, A Failure of Capitalism, calls this current economic slowdown a depression.
That’s bad. Real bad. And considering the federal poverty level is about half of what is really poverty, it’s very, very bad.
Here we go again. Another apology from The One.
‘Move over Cuba, Iran, North Korea and Syria. The State Department has made it official: The United States violates human rights. In an unprecedented move, the Obama administration submitted a report to the U.N. High Commissioner for Human Rights detailing the progress and problems in dealing with human rights issues in this country. The document is a strange combination of left-wing history and White House talking points.
‘It describes how the United States discriminates against the disabled, homosexuals, women, Native Americans, blacks, Hispanics and those who don’t speak English. There is the expected pandering to Muslims, noting that the government is committed to “challenge misperceptions and discriminatory stereotypes, to prevent acts of vandalism and to combat hate crimes,” offenses that the American people evidently keep committing. And the current economic woes are blamed on the housing crisis, which itself was the result of “discriminatory lending practices.” The implication is that if Americans had only been less racist, they would be enjoying prosperity today.’
Editorial in Washington Times Sunday August 29.
The housing crisis is the result of “discriminatory lending practices.”
No surprise really, that’s all Dingle-Barry knows to do. One of his main goals is to bring Amerika down a few notches. He may be a spaz/retard when it comes to sports, but he is very good at taking a bad situation and making it a hell of a lot worse. However the it’s not fair, bed wetting whining class love it. Go team Dingle-Barry!
You are starting to sound like a parody of yourself.
(Partial list)
wmbz’s descriptive adjectives regurgitated from his “Gentlemanly” Southern educational up-bringing:
“…slack jawed jackass”
“Diversity” The puke word of the decade…”
“one less puke…”
“…witch parties ass is occupying the oval orifice”
“….thousands of examples of candy assed, bed wetter, thumb sucking policies”
“that little puke…”
“that asswipe…”
“one of the top turds…”
“I hope they throw this POS out on his fat old lying ass…”
“Bunch of mouth breathing, nose picking, bed wetting, short bus riding, ugly morons…”
“He may be a spaz/retard when it comes to…”
Not to mention the ghetto-talk he uses when he talks about black politicians. He should get his own entry on the UN report.
Hang in there, wmbz. Maybe one day Rand or Ron will make it to the top, and we can go back to discriminating in our private businesses, just like the good ol’ days.
“The South a-gonna rise again!”
F-me. What a crock.
If anyone deserves an apology it is the citizens of this formerly great nation who have been sold down the river.
Discriminatory lending practices?
F-me too. Lending practices were anything but.
And the current economic woes are blamed on the housing crisis, which itself was the result of “discriminatory lending practices.” The implication is that if Americans had only been less racist, they would be enjoying prosperity today.’
I don’t think anybody BUT the fear mongering author is saying any such thing.
Time to let home prices fall?
Many expect another wave of foreclosures to further deflate prices. The government could offer new incentives — or let market forces rule.
(I haven’t read this yet, but it was in the L A Times- cursory glance :NAHB Economist says overall economy must lead this time)http://articles.latimes.com/2010/aug/28/business/la-fi-petruno-20100828
Conversation from my cube neighbor going on right now, on the phone:
“There’s houses in Tampa going for 30 grand right now. I might buy one just to buy one. I may use it for a retirement place.”
This guy’s in his early 30’s.
Seriously.
“I may use it for a retirement place.”
CLASSIC!
I make it a point to note where the deluded J6Pack yammers about “retirement”.
The working public bought the retirement lie….. all of it.
Whenever I think of retirement, I think of my father, grandfather, and great uncle. None of those guys retired.
OTOH, my mother took the teacher’s pension-sweeting offer back in ‘93. And, from my perspective, she’s been chronically depressed since then.
For every non-retired there are plenty of retired. My father’s been retired for 20 years (at 60), and by BIL just retired last year in his early 50’s (state employee).
Retirement is what you make of it. Both my parents retired. My mom started working with the bridge club and is now running tournaments and traveling the country to play at tournaments. My dad started a dirt-bike riding club after having been off motorcycles for 30 years. He also teaches computer classes at the local retirement center.
Retirement is what you make of it.
Part of the problem with retirement and my family is our entrepreneurial streak. We’re just not happy unless we’re involved in some sort of venture or the other.
Get a bunch of us together, and it isn’t long before we start talking about our various ventures, batting business ideas back and forth, or discussing some economic trend.
So, for the sake of our mental health — and that of everyone around us — we keep working.
Are you guys not paying attention or do really believe your life is no different than our parents?
Both my parents are in their late 80’s, been drawing pensions, employer provided health insurance and SS since 1981. Not I nor any of my siblings have a pension nor do our spouses(there are ten of us kids). Not one. Nor do any of us have any promise or contractual benefit that provides health insurance post-”retirement”.
In my group of 40 something peers, few to none have pension benefits or any of the benefits the older generations had. I’m not ok with it but have come to accept it.
Anyways, generally speaking, if you’re viewing “retirement” like some of the 20, 30 and 40 something morons yammer about, you’re in for a big surprise.
We bought the retirement “lie” (LOL) and have been enjoying retirement for 5+ years now.
Exter,
I don’t believe I’ll get to retire unless I fund it entirely myself. So no, I don’t believe in the same retirement my parents enjoy. Theirs is almost entirely self funded as well, even though they get SS and my dad has a small pension. But their SS and pension add up to less than 10% of their ‘net worth.’ I view my retirement the way my parents viewed their own. They don’t count on the the government to make their retirement work, and I won’t either.
Bile, was there any doubt you’re are freeloader? No.
SF sounds like my father riding motorcylces till he was 70 and tried to prop up a bike and dislocated his shoulder…shoulda let dammm bike fall……he also taught seniors how to use a computer..
My dad started a dirt-bike riding club after having been off motorcycles for 30 years. He also teaches computer classes at the local retirement center.
Public Pensions and Our Fiscal Future
Few Californians in the private sector have $1 million in savings, but that’s effectively the retirement account they guarantee to many government employees.
As former Speaker of the State Assembly and San Francisco Mayor Willie Brown pointed out earlier this year in the San Francisco Chronicle, roughly 80 cents of every government dollar in California goes to employee compensation and benefits. Those costs have been rising fast. Spending on California’s state employees over the past decade rose at nearly three times the rate our revenues grew, crowding out programs of great importance to our citizens. Neglected priorities include higher education, environmental protection, parks and recreation, and more.
Much bigger increases in employee costs are on the horizon. Thanks to huge unfunded pension and retirement health-care promises granted by past governments, and also to deceptive pension-fund accounting that understated liabilities and overstated future investment returns, California is now saddled with $550 billion of retirement debt.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748703447004575449813071709510.html - 151k
“roughly 80 cents of every government dollar in California goes to employee compensation and benefits”
But don’t you dare claim public unions and pensions are a problem in California or you’ll get reamed by CalPers zealots.
Close to 10 million receive unemployment insurance, nearly four times the number from 2007. Benefits have been extended by Congress eight times beyond the basic 26-week program.
WASHINGTON — Government anti-poverty programs that have grown to meet the needs of recession victims now serve a record one in six Americans and are continuing to expand.
More than 50 million Americans are on Medicaid, the federal-state program aimed principally at the poor, a survey of state data by USA TODAY shows. That’s up at least 17% since the recession began in December 2007.
“Virtually every Medicaid director in the country would say that their current enrollment is the highest on record,” says Vernon Smith of Health Management Associates, which surveys states for Kaiser Family Foundation.
The program has grown even before the new health care law adds about 16 million people, beginning in 2014. That has strained doctors. “Private physicians are already indicating that they’re at their limit,” says Dan Hawkins of the National Association of Community Health Centers.
More than 40 million people get food stamps, an increase of nearly 50% during the economic downturn, according to government data through May. The program has grown steadily for three years.
Caseloads have risen as more people become eligible. The economic stimulus law signed by President Obama last year also boosted benefits.
“This program has proven to be incredibly responsive and effective,” says Ellin Vollinger of the Food Research and Action Center.
“More than 50 million Americans are on Medicaid, the federal-state program aimed principally at the poor, a survey of state data by USA TODAY shows.”
One out of six Americans.
No wonder the states are broke.
More than 50 million Americans are on Medicaid,
Obamacare encouraging and enabling states to further expand “states rights”?
Kansas Sets Up Insurance Pool for Pre-Existing Conditions
http://www.huliq.com/10017/kansas-sets-insurance-pool-pre-existing-conditions
According to the National Conference of State Legislatures, Kansas is not alone. They are only one of twenty nine states and the District of Columbia that chose to operate their own plans, instead of allowing the federal government to take over.
The state of Kansas is in the midst of implementing a great idea as far as offering temporary health insurance coverage for those who have pre-existing medical conditions and at the same time have not had health insurance coverage in the last six months.
This temporary health insurance coverage plan will operate until Jan. 1, 2014, when the federal health reform law requires all people to have health insurance and all health insurance companies to offer coverage to all applicants at standard market rates.
A point of Canadian history:
The national health insurance program that Canada has now is based on the provincial plan that was started by Tommy Douglas when he was premier of Saskatchewan. In a 2004 CBC contest, Douglas was voted “The Greatest Canadian.”
Just called to check out this plan…..
PPO plan (now let’s see who actually accepts patients on this plan….)
$2500 deductible. Then a 70/30 split up to $3450. 100% coverage above that. Prescription drug coverage counts against the deductible.
Out of network is a 50-50 split.
Rate quoted for a 53 year old non-smoker?……$340-365/month, depending on which Eastern Kansas zip code I end up in. Rate requoted/recalculated yearly.
Of course, it’s always the fine print that ends up killing you……
Of course, it’s always the fine print that ends up killing you……
Or not having any health insurance.
Message FROM: FIRE Sector
“Up yours, we got ours.”
$350 a week is what the average retail and factory worker makes.
That isn’t going to fly.
Cash-Poor Governments Ditching Public Hospitals
Officials in Lauderdale County, Ala., this spring opted to transfer their 91-year-old Eliza Coffee Memorial Hospital and other properties to a for-profit company after struggling to satisfy an angry bond insurer.
“We were next to knocking on bankruptcy’s door,” said Rhea Fulmer, a Lauderdale County commissioner who approved the deal with RegionalCare Hospital Partners, of Brentwood, Tenn, but with trepidation. She said the county had no guarantee the company would improve care in the decades to come. “Time will tell.”
Clinton County, Ohio, in May sold its hospital to the same company. Officials in Kenai Peninsula Borough, Alaska, are weighing a joint venture with a for-profit company, similar to one the same company made with Bannock County, Idaho. And Prince George’s County, Md., is seeking a buyer for its medical complex.
More than a fifth of the nation’s 5,000 hospitals are owned by governments and many are drowning in debt caused by rising health-care costs, a spike in uninsured patients, cuts in Medicare and Medicaid and payments on construction bonds sold in fatter times. Because most public hospitals tend to be solo operations, they don’t enjoy the economies of scale, or more generous insurance contracts, which bolster revenue at many larger nonprofit and for-profit systems.
The dark side of loan-modification assistance
WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) — Word of warning: I am currently working temporarily for a loan-modification law firm. I use the words “law firm” loosely. It is more of a call center filled with cubicles and salesmen calling themselves case representatives and paralegals. The correspondence they send out weekly to distressed homeowners appears to have the guise of a government program or a government entity. I have about half my calls a day asking me if we are a government non-profit.
We state we are compliant with state law, but we charge for our services up front — about $1,000 to have a 15-minute conference call with our attorney, $1,200 to prepare simple financial paperwork and hardship letters, $1,500 to review the loan-modification paperwork. The homeowner receives the modification paperwork from the lender, and then sends it to us for “review.”
The level of harassment we impose on our prospective clients resembles that of a collection agency. I am forced to dedicate two hours of my day to constantly leave voicemails to the elderly, disabled and non-English speakers to foist our services upon them. We offer loan modifications, but now we are trying to offer debt settlement and credit-card compromise. Consumers can easily accomplish both of those services free and equally as effectively on their own. Instead, they pay a huge fee and receive minimal help.
Our main point of reference for credibility is the Better Business Bureau. I do not know the procedure to file a complaint, but I know our firm gives partial refunds to avoid having a complaint lodged with the BBB. I see many fellow staffers disregard people’s confidential financial information. Many just throw it away in regular trash cans or leave it on empty desks. I think that is unprofessional and just a total disregard to our clients.
I come from a humble background, and a majority of my career has been spent working at real law firms and in the nonprofit sector. I am going off to law school soon. I am an agent for justice and want to make a difference in the community.
I am an agent for justice and want to make a difference in the community.
Really? Oh sorry, what is the name of the Company you work for? :-/
Sweet Jebus! What a racket!
“Less regulation” in action.
Deadline looms for cigarette tax
Business First of Buffalo
Just two days remain before Gov. David Paterson plans to begin collecting sales taxes on cigarettes sold by Indian retailers to non-Indian customers.
But parallel proceedings in State Supreme Court and U.S. District Court could affect the governor’s deadline. The Seneca and Cayuga tribes are seeking a temporary injunction to prevent collection of the $4.35-per-pack tax. Rulings could be issued as early as Monday.
The Seneca Nation and other tribes across the state refuse to collect the tax, which they contend would violate their sovereignty. The state last tried to impose a sales tax on reservations in 1997. The Senecas responded with extensive protests, thwarting the state’s efforts.
“There will be quite an uprising and protest to this, but I am going to maintain this policy,” Paterson said in an interview last week.
Just two days remain before Gov. David Paterson plans to begin collecting sales taxes on cigarettes sold by Indian retailers to non-Indian customers.
Like at 7-Eleven and QuickTrip?
+1
But wow, $4.35 a pack just in taxes? What does a pack costs these days, and why would ANYone smoke now?
In AZ they’re about $6-7 per pack if you buy one at a time.
Why smoke? Just because people enjoy it and because nicotine is a drug.
Stocks in U.S. Slip as Investors Prepare for Data Deluge- AP
Wall Street ticks lower early Monday as investors await a host of economic reports. Signs of a slowdown in growth have plagued the market for more than a month, and the days ahead will provide a number of clues about the pace of recovery.
‘A great time’ to buy: 6,000 South Florida homes on sale for $50,000 or less
By Paul Owers Sun-Sentinel Staff Writer
Posted: 9:03 a.m. Monday, Aug. 30, 2010
A Coral Springs condominium on Riverside Drive is listed for sale at $50,000.
On Haverhill Road in West Palm Beach, a house is going for $40,000.
And on Southwest 36th Street in Hollywood, you can buy a two-bedroom house for $34,900, or roughly the cost of a 2011 Ford Expedition.
The collapse in home prices during the past five years has left plenty of bargains for the taking, but many of the properties are shoe-box tiny, need new roofs or have some other major flaw that doesn’t make financial sense for buyers on a budget.
Typically, investors will buy the homes, renovate them and then resell the properties for a profit within a few weeks or months.
Rick Henderson, who recently bought a West Palm Beach home for $42,000, said he and other investors negotiate good deals with contractors and spend $10,000 to $20,000 fixing the homes.
“It would cost twice as much for a regular homeowner,” Henderson said. “There truly is no way that a regular homeowner could get the kinds of prices on material and labor unless they’re in the trades.”
Roughly 6,000 condos, townhouses and single-family homes priced at $50,000 or less are for sale across South Florida, according to a recent report from CondoVultures.com, a Bal Harbour-based consulting firm.
1 COMMENT
Gang Banger territory -NEXT
Rick Scott
10:09 AM, 8/30/2010
Report: 100 Russian skinheads attack concertgoers (AP)
MOSCOW – Scores of bare-chested skinheads attacked a crowd of about 3,000 people at a rock concert in central Russia on Sunday, beating them with clubs, media reports said.
Dozens of people were left bloodied and dazed in the attack, television and news agencies reported, and state news channel Rossiya-24 said a 14-year-old girl was killed at the concert in Miass, 900 miles (1,400 kilometers) east of Moscow.
Fourteen ambulances were called to the scene, the channel said, citing witness accounts. The motive for the attack was not known, and authorities couldn’t be reached for comment. The ITAR-Tass agency said local police had refused comment.
Many of Russia’s top rock acts were attending the “Tornado” rock festival, the agency said.
Russia has an ingrained neo-Nazi skinhead movement. Attacks on dark-skinned foreigners in Moscow and St. Petersburg have been relatively common in recent years. The January 2009 murder of lawyer Stanislav Markelov and journalist Anastasiya Baburova prompted a Kremlin crackdown on ultranationalists, who were blamed for the killings.
An event for Glenn Beck to celebrate.
Nancy Pelosi salutes them!
I am white of European ancestry, and I thought it was divisive and very just plain wrong to have a Glenn Beck rally on the day and in the area, that the MLK crowd was commemorating MLK’s “I Have A Dream” speech. Beck showed he has no class, and is an a-hole (i.e. his true colors), imho.
Harold Hill aka “Glen Beck” thrives on angry nationalism. Without it, he is nothing.
But Glenn Beck said that he didn’t know it was the same day and it wasn’t about politics anyway.
Glenn Beck Says Saturday’s ‘Restoring Honor’ Rally on the Mall is Not About Politics
http://www.cnsnews.com/news/article/71695
Beck, a popular figure among tea party activists and a polarizing Fox News Channel personality, has said it is merely a coincidence that the event is taking place on the 47th anniversary of King’s plea for racial equality. Beck has called President Barack Obama a racist.
I don’t have much time for Beck, but I watched quite a lot of his rally. Calling it “angry nationalism” is a gross mischaracterization. Which, I suppose, will only encourage you.
We haven’t owned a TV in 15 years, but when I am in the bookstore, I see his mug and Sean Hannity on their book covers wrapping themselves in red, white, and blue. I’ve also heard both on the radio. (10 minutes is all I can take.) Oy Vey!
why?
Was not Nazism… national “socialist”… left wing?
Beck does not favor left wing.
Don’t confuse people. Beck’s a nazi, dammit.
No.. Nazis were liberals.
Beck is conservative
But.. then.. you knew that
Still, the revelation often gives the heavily liberal group a headache, which has merit.
“Was not Nazism… national “socialist”… left wing?”
Nice try.
Then why were the nazi’s so petrified of the commmunist elements internal to Germany pre-war? Why did they execute established members of the communist and socialist party subsequent to Hitler taking power in 1933? Why was it that the USSR most feared external threat to the Nazi’s…..
A basic understanding of modern history isn’t too much to ask.
A basic understanding of modern history isn’t too much to ask.
These days, yes. Yes it is.
Nice try.
Russia and Germany had territorial issues. Often desires trump platitudinous postulates.
I still see nonsense ad hominem criticism of Beck (He’s this, he’s that… no evidence provided).
Your fear is entertaining.
Irony of course is that I’m not particularly fond of Beck… neutral really… but his ability to get your panties in a knot does have some charm
By now you’ve established the fact you care not for history. Embrace the ignorance and move on.
National Socialism; alternatively spelled Naziism[1]) was the ideology and practice of the Nazi Party and of Nazi Germany.[2][3][4][5][6][7][8][9] It was a unique variety of fascism that involved biological racism and antisemitism.[10] Nazism presented itself as politically syncretic, incorporating policies, tactics and philosophies from right- and left-wing ideologies; in practice, Nazism was a far right form of politics.[11]
The Nazis believed in the supremacy of an Aryan master race and claimed that Germans represent the most pure Aryan nation.[12] They argued that Germany’s survival as a modern great nation required it to create a New Order — an empire in Europe that would give the German nation the necessary land mass, resources, and expansion of population needed to be able to economically and militarily compete with other powers.[13]
The Nazis claimed that Jews were the greatest threat to the Aryan race and the German nation. They considered Jews a parasitic race that attached itself to various ideologies and movements to secure its self-preservation, such as: the Enlightenment, liberalism, democracy, parliamentary politics, capitalism, industrialisation, Marxism and trade unionism.[14]
The Nazis claimed that communism was dangerous to the well-being of nations because of its intention to dissolve private property, its support of class conflict, its aggression against the middle class, its hostility to small businessmen, and its atheism.[91]
He believed that private ownership was useful in that it encouraged creative competition and technical innovation, but insisted that it had to conform to national interests and be “productive” rather than “parasitical”.[94]
All these terms get blurred and politicized even today. Clearly what he proposed was not today’s European style of democratic socialism. I would say Glen Beck is much more synonymous with Nazi-ism than today’s European democratic socialsm. Beck gets low IQ types to foam at the mouth over the flag, religious purity, and race. This is exactly what Hitler did. If the US was more homogeneous his message would be more dangerous. Not that it’s not dangerous now.
You dropped that one (”creative competition………had to conform to national interests) like a hot potato, didnt you. Getting too close for comfort to your unicorn rancher. Switching right into slurs on the patriotic activists shows me that something’s got your goat but good. See ya in November, you betcha’!!
Like I warned in 06 and 08. You’re going to be disappointed in Nov.
So, you agree that Nazism was socialism. We agree that most racists in the country are liberal.
The LSM note that while Beck’s crowd was overwhelmingly white, but that it was less overwhelmingly so than Sharpton’s meeting was overwhelmingly Black.
Racism???
Tragic more to define racism as liberals seem to do here, by presence of population in a group meeting. White’s are racist for not voting of ‘Bama, but Blacks are (more? less?) racist for more overwhelmingly supporting him even now?
Was not Nazism… national “socialist”… left wing?
Uhh…no. Is the People’s Republic of China “Republican”?
If you knew anything about nazism (which, of course, was a far right wing movement), you’d know one of their earliest, loudest, and staunchest opponents was the German socialist party. Socialist newspapers, highly critical of the nazis when others were scared silent, were promptly shut down when the nazis first rose to power, and socialist leaders were murdered or sent to concentration camps.
Horsehockey! Hitler and his supporters arose from the socialist wave that swept through Germany after WWI. He `and his crowd played on the poverty forced on the country by the allies (coal was shipped to England while Germans froze). Social youth groups were formed and fed (and indoctrinated) because they were starving; think CCC camps auf Deutsch. Hitler stated somewhere that his socialist party should actively recruit communist party members because they were already indoctrinated and made excellent, loyal followers. Those here that want to equate conservatives with Nazis are just whistling past the graveyard hoping that any of their invective slurs will stick. Liberal socialists like to ignore inconvenient history. Just like they’re ignoring the damage presently coming from DC.
Carlos, seriously, ever heard of “Google?” And if that isn’t good enough for you, you are free to pick any university… from around the world.
“Socialist” in 1930s Germany did not mean what it means today. There were fascists. Period.
Hitler stated somewhere that his socialist party should actively recruit communist party members because they were already indoctrinated and made excellent, loyal followers.
‘Stated somewhere’, eh? Is this how they recruited them?
from Holocaust Timeline
“Murder and violence soon erupted on a scale never before seen in Germany. Roaming groups of Nazi Brownshirts walked the streets singing Nazi songs and looking for fights.
The Nazis found many Communists in the streets wanting a fight and they began regularly shooting at each other. Hundreds of gun battles took place. On July 17, the Nazis under police escort brazenly marched into a Communist area near Hamburg in the state of Prussia. A big shoot-out occurred in which 19 people were killed and nearly 300 wounded. It came to be known as “Bloody Sunday.” “
Wow…. I had no idea of the limited knowledge of modern history by some. The idea that the nazi’s were socialist or communist is completely detached from reality.
Stunning.
Wow…. I had no idea of the limited knowledge of modern history by some. The idea that the nazi’s were socialist or communist is completely detached from reality.
Stunning.
People are
Smartreally ignorant.The Nazi became extremely right wing when Hitler dropped his ’socialist’ act. It was part of his ploy to complete his Aryan race program
We have a winner!
“Ethnic Purity” is conservative by definition.
Wait a second. This fundamental lack of understanding of history is so ignorantly stupid it has to be a troll. (???)
Man, music critics are getting out of control these days!
OK MUSIC Buffs wadda U think??????:::::::
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Qsg6f_ovDZg
“….attacked a rock concert…..”
Guess the Insane Clown Posse has a Siberian branch.
No joke.
A few months ago, ICP played at the Rialto Theatre here in Tucson. Mind you, I’ve passed by quite a number of Rialto crowds as they’ve lined up before the concerts, but the ICP-ers were the first bunch that frightened me. I got the heck outta that area as fast as I could.
ICP played at the Rialto Theatre here in Tucson
The Rialto? The Rialto?
Safe to say, they won’t be around much longer.
Big incentive for school attendance: Cash
ST. LOUIS • Stacey Wright had more than a dozen choices when it came to enrolling three of her children in an elementary school, from charters to magnets to traditional public schools in every corner of the city.
She chose Jefferson Elementary School, the brick St. Louis public school across the street. And for that, she may get $900.
For the first time, a local organization is offering parents a cash incentive to enroll their children at Jefferson. The money is limited to students who didn’t attend the school last year. To get it, the kids must finish this semester with near-perfect attendance and receive no out-of-school suspensions; the parent must attend three PTO meetings. The program is being offered to families in three mixed-income housing complexes surrounding the school, where most of the students live.
Wright, an in-home caregiver, recently moved with her children to north St. Louis from Oxford, Miss. She’s eager to get involved at Jefferson, located at Hogan and O’Fallon streets.
“It’s an awesome deal,” Wright said. “A lot of us can use that money. It doesn’t sound like a lot, but it makes a big difference.”
IMHO, this is a great idea. After all, incentives do matter.
And this isn’t exactly a free lunch. As the story says, “To get it, the kids must finish this semester with near-perfect attendance and receive no out-of-school suspensions; the parent must attend three PTO meetings.”
I don’t see why they’d need to give somebody 900 bucks to send their kids to the school RIGHT ACROSS THE STREET.
Strange as it may seem to those of us in the middle and upper class, going to school is not a widely shared value. I’ve heard of/known more than a few poor families where school attendance is, shall we say, an optional event.
And, sorry to say, we as taxpayers get to pay for the consequences down the road. Think of the social problems that we bash around on this blog — low literacy/illiteracy, delinquency, crime, low levels of job skills and work readiness. A lot of them trace back to low educational attainment.
So, giving $900 to families that could use the money seems like a good deal to me.
Consumer Spending in U.S. Tops Forecast, Incomes Lag
Consumer spending in the U.S. rose more than forecast in July, exceeding gains in incomes and indicating the economy may avoid slipping back into a recession.
A few weeks back, I read a Business Week article that hinted at the notion of consumer spending increases being driven by non-payment of mortgages. Sorry that I can’t remember which issue, but there it was in BW…
I guess these guys have never heard of the word “unsustainable”.
What the… how can spending exceed income if consumer debt is harder to come by?
Ah, but maybe it isn’t hard to by after all.
MURDER-SUICIDES: Economic worries taking toll in recent deaths
Victims’ families blame financial stress ~ Las Vegas
Donald and Barbara Romano had been residents of Las Vegas for more than 50 years.
He was a former Marine, a Korean War veteran and a respected member of the community. She was a loving mother, described as “very kind and generous” by her daughter.
But the couple, heavily involved in the real estate business, had been financially crippled by the recession.
On Aug. 20, a Friday, the couple was found dead in the bedroom of their million-dollar Summerlin home by their housekeeper, Las Vegas police said. A gun was found in Donald’s hand and a note was left near the bed. Both were 74.
Their deaths are the latest in a wave of murder-suicides in the Las Vegas Valley this month.
From Aug. 7 to Aug. 20 there were five murder-suicides, 10 deaths total, Las Vegas police said. A gun was used in each case. In four of the five instances, the man was the shooter. In one instance, a bystander was wounded.
Maria Romano, daughter of the victims in the most recent report, said economic woes were the root of their stress.
“Their financial situation was not good,” she said. “That’s not a secret to people that were close to them.”
Homicide Lt. Lew Roberts, speaking in general terms, said several of the recent cases can be traced to the same cause.
“At this point it appears that maybe the economy is starting to take effect, which is something we haven’t seen before,” he said.
Nothing like lowering the life expectancy to address the Social Security funding crisis.
Seriously. They should get posthumous medals. (Made from paperclips and yogurt lids. Let’s not waste the cost savings, here.)
Wow! Based on these comments I’d say that Soylent Green factories will be coming soon.
Nah, they’re all skin and bones by then. Stringy and tasteless.
On Aug. 20, a Friday, the couple was found dead in the bedroom of their million-dollar Summerlin home by their housekeeper,
It is truly sad that they couldn’t “buck it up” and live in a one-bedroom apt, if need be. Plenty of people do and are very happy.
It’s just sad.
by their housekeeper
I hope they left her a tip.
The bloody sheet they left behind gives a new meaning to the expression “pink slip”. A hell of a way to find out your job has terminated.
It’s most likely the very same people who like to tell others that their problems are their own fault… until the worm turns and they see the hard, brutal truth and sickening realization that they were a-holes all their life and now they will have to listen to others who were just like them.
U.S. Economy “Extremely Weak” and “Losing Momentum,” Says Economist Nigel Gault. Peter Gorenstein in Recession ~Tech Ticker
The stock market rallied strongly on Friday after second quarter GDP numbers were revised down less than expected to a 1.6% annual growth rate.
Nigel Gault - chief U.S. economist with IHS Global Insight - doesn’t think it’s anything to celebrate. “1.6% is still extremely weak,” he says.
President Obama agrees, telling NBC this weekend, “The economy is still growing, but it’s not growing as fast as it needs to.”
What’s more troubling, Gault notes, is that the trend is headed in the wrong direction. “The economy was growing more slowly the longer the year has gone on,” he tells Aaron in this clip. “We were losing momentum throughout the second quarter.”
Consumer spending and business spending on equipment and software were actually stronger than earlier estimates, but business structures, inventories, and exports all weakened.
The bright spot in the report was the gain in consumer spending. But, here too, the news is less than thrilling, in Gault’s opinion. “There are a number of things helping in the second quarter that won’t help in the third quarter.” The expiration of the home-buyer tax credit will hurt on the housing front as already evidenced by the plunge in July existing and new home sales.
Government spending was also a lift to the economy, but census worker hiring - which was a big factor - won’t be felt again this quarter.
Gault thinks the economy will continue to deteriorate in the third quarter. “The underlying strength of the private sector isn’t there,” he observes.
This “gain” in consumer spending is almost wholly due to “back to school” spending.
Sales at my daughters Am. Eagle store have fallen off a cliff since Aug 15. “Open” positions (including manager positions) are not being filled, and mid level managers are leaving in droves.
Expect the Christmas season to start on Labor Day this year.
“Sales at my daughters Am. Eagle store have fallen off a cliff since Aug 15.”
My daughter works at an Old Navy store and has reported the same.
California students get tracking devices
The Associated Press
RICHMOND, Calif.—California officials are outfitting preschoolers in Contra Costa County with tracking devices they say will save staff time and money.
The system was introduced Tuesday. When at the school, students will wear a jersey that has a small radio frequency tag. The tag will send signals to sensors that help track children’s whereabouts, attendance and even whether they’ve eaten or not.
School officials say it will free up teachers and administrators who previously had to note on paper files when a child was absent or had eaten.
Sung Kim of the county’s employment and human services department said the system could save thousands of hours of staff time and pay for itself within a year.
It cost $50,000 and was paid by a federal grant.
(shakes head)
Score another for nanny state over personal responsibility.
1984, in the name of “safety”.
“Personal responsibility” and “preschooler” rarely go hand in hand anyway, though.
Not talking about the kids.
The system was introduced Tuesday. When at the school, students will wear a jersey that has a small radio frequency tag. The tag will send signals to sensors that help track children’s whereabouts, attendance and even whether they’ve eaten or not.
My mother would have killed for something like this.
Why? Because I was, shall we say, an adventurous explorer. I was forever wandering off to where the grownups couldn’t locate me.
It only works when you’re in range of the sensors. Any explorer type is going to wind up far afield of where the sensor net has been erected.
Slim
be honest u wanted them not to find U cause u were a kissin and a huggin the cute boy next door….
Why not get it over with and just surgically implant the tracking devices.
We have something like that in our dog.
Why not get it over with and just surgically implant the tracking devices.
Like in Obamacare I think.
Install them on every Gov’t ID name-tag.
(Hey fella’s lookie here, (tracking lights flashing) seems folks must have been eatin’ lotsa beans yesterday. Every single toilet stall is currently in use…)
Borders to Sell Build-A-Bear Items as Readers Switch to E-Books
Borders Group Inc., the second- largest U.S. bookstore chain, will start selling items from Build-A-Bear Workshop Inc., relying less on books for sales as more people use electronic reading devices.
Most of Borders’ more than 500 stores will create sections next month dedicated to Build-a-Bear, the maker of kits kids can use to craft stuffed animals, Chief Executive Officer Michael Edwards said in an interview. The new areas also will feature books and DVDs tied to the brand.
Borders has lost money for the past four years as customers read more on digital readers and buy books over the Web, forcing the chain to close and sell stores. The bookseller has made its own push into digital readers, escalating competition with Amazon.com Inc. in an industry whose sales doubled last year.
“As more books are bought online or in digital format than bought at retail, it creates really the ultimate strategic challenge in terms of redefining the bookstore,” said Edwards, 50. “We are totally rethinking it.”
Borders has lost money for the past four years as customers read more on digital readers and buy books over the Web, forcing the chain to close and sell stores. The bookseller has made its own push into digital readers, escalating competition with Amazon.com Inc. in an industry whose sales doubled last year.
True story: When I was a University of Michigan student, I discovered a wonderful place to hang out, read books, and enjoy the classical music being played on a fabulous sound system. That was the original Borders store on State Street.
And I wasn’t the only U-M student who hung out in Borders, soaking up the reading material and the atmosphere while not buying anything.
Being the economics major that I was, I wondered how Borders stayed in business. Oh, yes, people like my parents would go on a book-buying tear whenever they were in town, but if you’re in retail, you need a steadier clientele.
Well, we all know what happened next. Borders went on an expansion binge — there are two in Tucson now — and the company’s in big trouble. Tell ya the truth, the local Barnes and Nobles are much better places to hang out than Borders. So even the freebie crowd has deserted them.
Any information is going to become detached from stuff — music, text, pictures.
Saves time, money and energy.
They’re planning to make it up on volume….
Slim, I was in A2 from 1974-1981. Borders was a big deal in those days. Might you and I have passed each other on the Diag at some point?
We probably did pass each other on the Diag. I was in A2 during 1975-81.
I was an econ major and took a lot of classes in the building that burned down on Xmas Eve 1981. Also worked on the campus paper with some very talented people, some of whom are quite famous now.
Tell ya the truth, the local Barnes and Nobles are much better places to hang out than Borders.
Not to mention Bookmans.
I don’t have an e-reader. Is it possible to sell an electronic book on, say, a one-use pen drive? You know, where you buy the e-book media with cash and stick it into the e-reader yourself, without being tracked? Amazon can’t compete with that.
Last week I ranted about companies wanting your contact and sales history so they can sell your name, email you constantly, put you into their club, and otherwise pester you and your friends to be a steady consumer. I would happily buy e-media at Borders to avoid the constant marketing.
And btw, has ANYone come out with an e-reader with two facing screens, that opens and shuts, and displays hi-def color? You know, acts like a book and could contain a textbook? The Kindle looks like a cross between an iPod and a Speak-and-Spell. No thanks.
Dirty little secret…
In the past few years most libraries have transferred their catalogs online and allowed patrons to access their ‘accounts’ via their library card number. I live in CA, and at least in my county (and surrounding ones I’ve checked) I can go online to my county library website, search for books and request them to be sent to my local branch for pickup. The site finds books throughout the county, and if my county system doesn’t have them, I can press the Link+ search button and it will search library systems across the state. Once found I can click twice and request that a book hundreds of miles away be sent to my local branch for pickup, just like a county book. If a popular or new title is checked out, I can put a hold on it myself and when my number comes up I get an email and the book is waiting for me - at my local branch.
Even better, when I’m done with the book it gets passed along for someone else to read - and removed from my cluttered home. And best yet, the whole thing is funded by money I’ve shelled out in taxes.
Who needs the frickin’ bookstore?
Eggman, you meanie! You just blew my cover wide open. I use the exact same techniques with my local library website.
And, unless I really need to have it as a reference, I rarely buy a book.
Right on. Even dirtier secret: It’s not just books, there are DVDs galore.
Same here. I love it.
Oops.
This from STRATFOR:
“Rumors have circulated in China that People’s Bank of China (PBC) Gov. Zhou Xiaochuan may have left the country. The rumors appear to have started following reports on Aug. 28 which cited Ming Pao, a Hong Kong-based news agency, saying that because of an approximately $430 billion loss on U.S. Treasury bonds, the Chinese government may punish some individuals within PBC, including Zhou….”
HEY! How has life been treating you?
Yeah, no long time, no post. How are you?
Nothin’ but Blue Skies….
ahem.
“Rumors have circulated in China that People’s Bank of China (PBC) Gov. Zhou Xiaochuan may have left the country’.
If he did I wouldn’t blame him, the Chinese don’t mess around. They’ll deploy the execution bus in a minute, when that pulls up in front of your house, it’s not going to be a good day.
Just imagine how the picture will evolve if long-term Treasury yields ever come back up off the mat…
* August 30, 2010, 1:01 PM ET
Runaway Central Banker? Rumors China Suffers Massive Treasury Losses
By Tiernan Ray
Perhaps take this with several grains of salt:
Currently circulating the Interwebs is the note from Stratfor this morning that Zhou Xiaochuan, governor of China’s central bank, the People’s Bank of China, has fled the country, apparently because of a $430 billion loss on U.S. Treasuries suffered by the People’s Republic, according to Stratfor.
The matter is clouded by the fact that a report was published on Saturday attributed to Hong Kong-based news agency Min Pao and subsequently denied by Ming Pao. But the rumor has continued to circulate anyway. Stratfor says it can’t corroborate the matter but judges the spread of the rumor as “significant” given possible Communist Party leadership changes in 2012.
…
There are many rumors around about Barry wanting to replace Larry Summers with a fresh face.
You don’t suppose……..
Hiring Zhou Xiaochuan would give Barry some more “diversity” points too.
an approximately $430 billion loss on U.S. Treasury bonds
That’s gonna leave a mark.
(Specifically a really big blood stain - if the guy ever gets caught).
P.S. How in the world could anyone have possibly lost money in U.S. treasuries recently? That’d be kind of like losing money in real estate during the 2000-2005 timeframe.
Maybe they mean lost opportunity cost?
“How in the world could anyone have possibly lost money in U.S. treasuries recently?”
By shorting them.
Yeah maybe (see my conjecture below).
That’d be some serious friggin’ shorting.
This may end up being the financial story of the year - maybe even the decade (seriously). It could have serious political blowback.
By shorting them.
Don’t bet against the Fed, China!
Actually - might China have actually been shorting U.S. treasuries?
And if so - might the recent huge spike be a purposeful reaction to said short?
(serious conjecturing on my part)
I like to think that that’s precisely what’s been going on–in collusion with IMF and various Other Entitie$. The only way out of our long-term global debt is to inflate USD, so Someone, Somewhere has made out like, well, Dubai…. Expect our friend Zhou (en famille,) is undergoing extensive facial plastic surgery somewhere in San Diego right about now.
Curious as to how much of FNM/FMC is actually owned by PBC?
Perhaps they shorted Treasurys at the same time they dumped them in an effort to profit by crashing the market?
I find it increasingly difficult to distinguish central banking from hedge fund operation.
China Doubles Korea Bond Holdings as Asia Switches From Dollar
By Frances Yoon - Aug 17, 2010 10:57 PM PT
Aug. 17 (Bloomberg) — Kenneth Lieberthal, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institute, a Washington policy group, talks about the outlook for China’s economy and the mainland’s holdings of U.S. Treasuries. China cut its holdings of Treasury notes and bonds by the most ever, raising speculation the plunge in U.S. yields that sent two-year rates to a record low has made government securities too expensive for some investors.
China more than doubled South Korean debt holdings this year, spurring the notes’ longest rally in more than three years, as policy makers shifted part of the world’s largest foreign-exchange reserves out of dollars.
Korean Treasury bonds held by Chinese investors rose 111 percent to 3.99 trillion won ($3.4 billion) in the first half of the year, data from the Seoul-based Financial Supervisory Service show. China should allocate some reserves to “financial assets in major Asian economies,” Ding Zhijie, a former adviser to China’s sovereign wealth fund, said in an Aug. 16 interview.
“The significance of both the dollar and euro has declined because of the global financial crisis and the European debt crisis, while the role of some emerging-market currencies rose,” said Ding, dean of finance at Beijing’s University of International Business and Economics.
China’s holdings of Treasuries fell 6 percent in the first half to $843.7 billion, Department of Treasury data released this week show, making it harder for President Barack Obama to finance record debt sales to sustain the U.S. economic expansion. Societe Generale SA predicts Chinese KTB purchases, which accounted for 19 percent of foreign inflows in the first half compared with 10 percent last year, will spur further gains.
“At this rate China may buy about 4 trillion won of KTBs by year-end, and that’s a big deal,” said Christian Carrillo, the Tokyo-based head of fixed-income strategy at SocGen, France’s second-biggest bank. “That will be bullish for the market. It’ll create a severe demand-supply imbalance in the KTBs, pushing yields to fall even more aggressively.”
…
I guess if China’s buying that many South Korean bonds, then we shouldn’t worry too much about their North Korean pit bull attacking the South.
How did they suffer losses- impossible
as yields drop to lowest ever level, prices soared giving them cap gains. And since the yuan is fixed there may only be marginal losses in currency. Every bond they own was purchased cheaper than todays price. I say the story is bunk. They probably lost on Chinese bonds.
After looking into the history of Stratfor - anything that comes out of there has to be taken with a BIG grain of salt. They have a very poor track record.
Nevertheless - it’s just a rumor at this point - it’ll be interesting to see how this plays out.
According to a large Taiwanese newspaper, Zhou gave a press conference in China on 8/30 so this appears to be a complete rumor. And like others have pointed out, the newspaper where the news came from says they didn’t publish the story.
Curiouser and curiouser…
KPBS San Diego Public Radio
These Days
Home Sales Drop. Will Prices Follow?
An audio recording of this interview will be posted here within a few hours of the live broadcast. A transcript will also be added within 24 hours. Thank you for your patience.
By Hank Crook, Alison St John
August 30, 2010
Alison St. John: The real estate market is as unpredictable as the stock market these days, at least for people who are not in it for the long haul. It looked to some as though we might have hit bottom on home prices recently, but the news that homes sales have fallen radically this month may mean that we haven’t reached the floor yet.
Whether you are a buyer, a seller or a wanna be buyer or seller, or just a bemused observer, the real estate market is providing us with a wild ride.
Guests
Dr. Michael Lea, director of SDSU’s Corky McMillin Center for Real Estate.
Matt Battiata, CEO of the Battiata Real Estate Group.
Yet again they infer that housing is an investment analogous to the stock market.
Might not turn out to good for the recent buyers in poway Ca willing to pay 300 sq ft for 1960’s vintage homes off Community rd
too bad at leas they got the 7K tax write off or credit or whatever it was
Honest Realtor Matt’s opinion: “San Diego is (overall) off 40%, and 2/3 to the bottom.” So I guess the bottom will be 60% off bubble peak?
I think that seems like a reasonable guesstimate…
Dr. Lea’s advice: “Don’t try to time the market.” I can almost hear the sound of real estate grant funding into his SDSU research program: KA-CHING!
The experts said they think interest rates are at or near the bottom. They seem quite oblivious to the likely effect of rising interest rates on home prices, though they do talk about the potential losses to mortgage investors, including the Fed, which holds $1.5 t in MBS.
“unpredictable…, may…, might…”
Come on, show us that you have a pair; call it!
The fact we haven’t been smacked with a nice size hurricane in a long while is driving the prognosticators crazy.
Earl May Pass Dangerously Close to the U.S. East Coast
Kristina Pydynowski, Senior Meteorologist ~Aug 30, 2010
After slamming the Leeward Islands today, Hurricane Earl may track dangerously close to the East Coast of the United States later this week.
The Leeward Islands will suffer a blow from Hurricane Earl’s damaging winds and torrential rain today.
Tuesday into Wednesday, Earl is expected to be a major hurricane curving more to the northwest into the open waters of the southwestern Atlantic Ocean. The arrival of a new storm system should then turn Earl more to the northeast later in the week.
That turn should spare the United States a direct hit from Earl. However, the AccuWeather.com Hurricane Center is concerned that Earl will still pass dangerously close to the East Coast.
North Carolina’s Outer Banks and Massachusetts’ Cape Cod are at greatest risk for being grazed by Hurricane Earl’s wind and rain late this week. The hurricane may then threaten Nova Scotia and Newfoundland next weekend.
As if the East Coast hasn’t gotten enough rain already.
Bank of Japan’s additional easing measures disappoint
cnnmoney ~ August 30, 2010
The Bank of Japan announced steps at an emergency meeting Monday to curb the yen’s strength and lift the country’s struggling economy — but the move was not enough to satisfy investors.
The central bank announced a new ¥10 trillion, or $117.15 billion, six-month loan program for financial institutions, in addition to the ¥20 trillion it has been offering in three-month loans.
The bank also held its key-interest rate at 0.1%.
“The Bank recognizes that Japan’s economy faces the critical challenge of overcoming deflation, and returning to a sustainable growth path with price stability,” the Bank of Japan said in a statement.
But the minor step was a disappointment to investors.
Still fighting deflation, after all these years. It’s quite a tar-baby.
Homebuyers could be forced to pay bigger deposits in plan to cap mortgage lending. ~ Daily Mail UK ~ 30th August 2010
Warning: Mortgage lending may be capped, meaning home-buyers will need bigger deposits
Mortgage lending could be ‘capped’ to stop borrowers taking out insecure loans, according to a senior Bank of England official.
The Bank’s Deputy Governor Charlie Bean said ‘direct constraints’ may be needed to restrict access to credit.
This could mean home-buyers being forced to put down sizable deposits - for example, between 10 and 25 per cent of the home’s value - before being approved for a mortgage by their banks or building societies.
It is the first time that a senior official has indicated that the Bank may intervene directly with new rules to stop risky lending.
It is one of the possible new powers handed to the Bank under the government’s proposed restructuring in its Financial Services Bill due later this year.
Such a move would mark the return of ‘credit controls’ that were scrapped in the early 1980s and made it difficult for many borrowers to get a mortgage.
Such a move would mark the return of ‘credit controls’ that were scrapped in the early 1980s and made it difficult for
manyalarmingly underqualified borrowers to get a mortgage.Fixed.
The same thing happened with our Savings & Loan industry, who, themselves, heavily lobbied for it, resulting in deregulation in the mid 1980s and then a few years later by the collapse of the industry.
Sound familiar?
The suggestion that the recession will not end until 2011 renders moot the discussion of whether a double dip is on the way. How can you have a double dip if the first dip is still in effect?
Senior Executives Expect Recession Will Not End Until 2011
Posted: August 28, 2010 at 8:32 am
A new study of 350 senior corporate executives posted results which look like those of many surveys of American consumers. The recession is not over, and, in fact, will not end until sometime next year. The poll was conducted by Grant Thornton.
Thirty-four percent of those queried believe that the recession will not end until the second half of next year. Twenty-eight percent picked the first half of 2011.
Half of those questioned believe that the economy will stay has it is for the next six months. Sixteen percent said it would worsen, up from the second quarter survey. The number who think the economy will improve over the next six months was 34%–a sharp drop.
Perhaps most depressing, the number of executives who think they will decrease workforces in the next six months rose to 15%. Those who think they will increase payrolls over the same period dropped to 38%.
The views add to concerns that unemployment will not stage any recovery this year, and may not improve until well into 2011. That means the rate of joblessness could move closer to 10%. Perhaps worse, this trend would swell the numbers of the long-term unemployed–those who have been out of work for 26 weeks or more. That will put a substantial burden on the financial obligations of states and the federal government. It could force Washington to spend billions more on jobless benefits.
The data also indicate that the number of people out of work for 99-weeks or longer–those who receive no benefits whatsoever–could rise from its current level of 1.3 million to close to 2 million toward the end of this year.
Douglas A. McIntyre
I don’t expect anything to really get better until 2012. And even that upturn may be temporary.
Much more deleveraging to go and structural change required, with the Chinese Yuan deflators and U.S. housing inflators fighting it every step of the way.
Comment by Get Stucco
Dude, do I need to add an “alias manager” feature to the Joshua Tree extension? How the heck do you keep them all separate?
Stucco, your’re back! I had this horrible dream about a cantankerous bear…
It will be a double dip for the rich. For the rest of us, it never ended.
The question du jour! Can Dr. Ben Bernanke and company get Americans back to borrowing and spending at a rate fast enough to perk up the economy? It was excessive debt that got us into trouble in the first place…and people know it. They are presently more interested in getting OUT of debt than getting IN to it. Bernanke can’t force people to borrow.
So what’s old BB’s next move gonna be?
. Bernanke can’t force people to borrow.
So what’s old BB’s next move gonna be?
This?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zDAmPIq29ro&NR=1
I’m thinking more like this:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8lYTIYvKTNg
“It was excessive debt that got us into trouble in the first place…and people know it.”
Nobody at the Fed seems ready to face up to this little problem with the hair-of-the-dog hangover cures they favor.
Whoa.
Next move my $3000 off my credit cards….its gotta happen…direct cash to the peeps.
I promise no lap dances….my GF has that covered quite well……..ooh yeah
* OPINION
* AUGUST 27, 2010
Public Pensions and Our Fiscal Future
Few Californians in the private sector have $1 million in savings, but that’s effectively the retirement account they guarantee to many government employees.
By ARNOLD SCHWARZENEGGER
Recently some critics have accused me of bullying state employees. Headlines in California papers this month have been screaming “Gov assails state workers” and “Schwarzenegger threatens state workers.”
I’m doing no such thing. State employees are hard-working and valuable contributors to our society. But here’s the plain truth: California simply cannot solve its budgetary problems without addressing government-employee compensation and benefits.
As former Speaker of the State Assembly and San Francisco Mayor Willie Brown pointed out earlier this year in the San Francisco Chronicle, roughly 80 cents of every government dollar in California goes to employee compensation and benefits. Those costs have been rising fast. Spending on California’s state employees over the past decade rose at nearly three times the rate our revenues grew, crowding out programs of great importance to our citizens. Neglected priorities include higher education, environmental protection, parks and recreation, and more.
Much bigger increases in employee costs are on the horizon. Thanks to huge unfunded pension and retirement health-care promises granted by past governments, and also to deceptive pension-fund accounting that understated liabilities and overstated future investment returns, California is now saddled with $550 billion of retirement debt.
…
What’s half a trillion between generations? I mean… come on! COME ON! What’s the big deal?
California simply cannot solve its budgetary problems without addressing government-employee compensation and benefits.
“Your retirement. Give it to me”
+1 LOL!
Few Californians in the private sector have $1 million in savings, but that’s effectively the retirement account they guarantee to many government employees.”
need to give out more traffic tickets
Thank God for Obama’s Recovery Summer or Beach Blanket Bingo
check out
youtube com/watch_popup?v=3JDT5vBQQr8&vq=medium
Don’t tell me I’m going to have to hand in my dow 10000 hat today. Its getting worn out, all this putting it on and taking it off lately.
Iran state media call French first lady prostitute
By ALI AKBAR DAREINI The Associated Press
Updated: 3:35 p.m. Monday, Aug. 30, 2010
Posted: 10:00 a.m. Monday, Aug. 30, 2010
TEHRAN, Iran — Iranian state media called France’s first lady, Carla Bruni-Sarkozy, a “prostitute” on Monday in an unusual attack on the wife of a world leader that shows deep anger over her support for an Iranian woman who faced death by stoning on an adultery conviction.
The wife of French President Nicolas Sarkozy has condemned the stoning sentence against Sakineh Mohammadi Ashtiani, which Iran temporarily suspended but did not throw out after an international outcry.
Ashtiani, a 43-year-old mother of two, could still face execution by stoning or hanging after a final review of her case, her lawyer, Javid Houtan Kian, told The Associated Press Monday.
The Kayhan newspaper, whose editor is a representative of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, described Bruni-Sarkozy as a “prostitute” on Saturday in an article headlined “French prostitutes enter the human rights uproar.”
The state-owned news website inn.ir carried similar remarks on Monday.
If by prostitute, they mean “takes off her clothes for money” then I’m afraid they’re right.
Could it be Dow 10,000?
So close you can almost taste it!
Cash for clunkers, $8k for first time home victims, wampum for washers and like the Rubbles pet kangaroo Hoppy used to say Hamp Hamp and now for all you sweaty 99ers out there who have not yet received your government cheese…..
Drum roll please………
Time to get some cash to replace that clunker air condtioner; rebate program begins today
By Susan Salisbury Palm Beach Post Staff Writer
Updated: 12:45 p.m. Monday, Aug. 30, 2010
Posted: 8:03 a.m. Monday, Aug. 30, 2010
The Florida Energy Star residential HVAC Rebate Program starts today and will end Dec. 31 or when all $15 million in rebate funds are disbursed.
The rebate program is designed to encourage homeowners to replace their old heating and cooling systems with properly sized energy-efficient systems and to ensure home duct systems have minimal leakage.
Program manager Brenda Buchan answered a few questions recently to supplement information already provided on the program’s website, http://www.rebates.com/floridahvac
Q: How much is the rebate?
A: There is a limit of one $1,500 rebate per customer and household.
Q: How many rebates will the state offer?
A: Federal stimulus funds will provide 10,000 rebates.
New A/Cs run about $2-3000.
And if they don’t have the money in the first place…
FIBA Basketball World Championship
This just in: Final Score: USA 70 Brazil 68
Team USA struggled to hold off a tough Brazil team Monday and remain undefeated at the worlds. espn
Too much “hot money” flooding Brazil? US low interest rate to blame? Chill out world.
Greenspan Conundrum Is Lula’s Gain as Long-Term Yields Sink: Brazil Credit
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-08-30/greenspan-conundrum-is-lula-s-gain-as-long-term-yields-sink-brazil-credit.html
The biggest foreign purchases of Brazilian local bonds in three years are pushing longer-term borrowing costs below yields on two-year debt for the first time since October 2008.
Record low yields in the U.S. and Europe spurred foreigners to buy a net $16 billion of Brazilian bonds from January through July, compared with $9.1 billion for all of 2009,
“We are seeing relentless inflows,” ….“Some of the investors are betting on the convergence trade.”
Brazil’s so-called inverted yield curve is similar to the “conundrum” that former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan said he faced in 2005, …
That February, Greenspan said in a speech that he was puzzled by a decline in long-term bond yields even after he boosted the benchmark overnight rate six times in eight months. Brazilian long-term yields are declining after central bank President Henrique Meirelles boosted the interbank rate to 10.75 percent from a record low 8.75 percent in April to cool growth.
Like foreigners’ purchases are pushing down Brazilian long- term rates now, yields on 10-year Treasuries sank then as countries from China to Saudi Arabia invested cash from trade surpluses in long-term U.S. debt.
“An inverted curve is not something common in Brazil,” Saddi Castro said in a telephone interview. “There’s huge liquidity in the markets and you have a strengthening of flows from foreigners, which was exactly what happened in the U.S. There are some similarities.”
Overseas investors increased their holdings of Brazilian domestic debt to a record 9.5 percent of the total in July from 6.1 percent a year earlier, …
International investors held 61 percent of the government’s bonds due in 2017 as of April, up from 50 percent at the end of 2008, according to the Treasury. They owned 49 percent of bonds due in 2021. (PIMCO) which runs the world’s biggest bond fund, is the largest holder of the bonds due in 2017, accounting for 7 percent as of June 30,
Brazil is in a “developmental breakout phase,” Mohamed El-Erian, Pimco’s chief executive and co-chief investment officer, said …
Latin America’s largest economy will grow 7.1 percent this year, the fastest pace in two decades,
Brazil’s benchmark overnight interest-rate equals 6.15 percent after adjusting for inflation, the second highest among 54 nations tracked by Bloomberg. The annual inflation rate has declined to 4.6 percent from 17 percent in 2003 as Lula pared the budget deficit as a percent of gross domestic product and the currency rallied 102 percent against the dollar.
Brazil’s budget deficit equaled 3.4 percent of GDP in the 12 months through July, or about one third the U.S. gap.
yes the US is exporting it’s inflation to Brazil just like Japan exported it to the US how did that work out BTW
Discover(R) Small Business Watch(SM): Small Business Confidence Plummets
Expectations are Low for Economic Progress over Next 6 Months
RIVERWOODS, Ill., Aug 30, 2010 (BUSINESS WIRE) — –FINANCIAL REFORM: 44% Think Bank Funding Will Be Harder to Obtain
–FADED GREEN: Small Business Enthusiasm Slips for the Future of Green Initiatives
Small business owners’ confidence in the economy soured significantly from July to August in the largest one-month decline since November 2009, according to the Discover(R) Small Business Watch(SM). Business owners expressed a negative outlook for the economy in general and skepticism that economic conditions would get better for their businesses in the next six months.
In August, 62 percent of small business owners said the economy is getting worse and a record 55 percent of small business owners expect economic conditions for their businesses to be unfavorable in the next six months, up 10 percentage points from July. Those indicators led the drop in confidence from 83 on the index in July to 73 in August.
The Financial Times
US housing woes compound labour concerns
By James Politi in Washington
Published: August 30 2010 22:01 | Last updated: August 30 2010 22:01
Concerns that the depressed US housing sector will remain a drag on the US labour market have mounted following the loss of nearly 120,000 jobs in construction and related businesses in the last three months for which statistics were available.
According to Financial Times analysis, the decline in housing-related employment was the biggest weight on private sector job creation as it slowed to an average of 51,000 jobs a month during the May-July period from 153,000 a month in February-April.
US Labor Department data show that some 61,000 construction jobs were lost between May and July, with another 56,000 positions shed in ancillary areas, such as furniture, building products and financial services related to property.
New employment data for August will be released on Friday, and economists expect little improvement in the current anaemic rate of private sector job creation, which is not enough to bring the unemployment rate down.
…
It’s unnerving to lose so many construction jobs during prime building season, isn’t it?
The Financial Times
Building industry holds key to rebuilding US jobs
By James Politi in Washington
Published: August 30 2010 22:01 | Last updated: August 30 2010 22:01
There was despair in the tone of David Frye from the Laborers’ International Union of North America.
“Nearly one in four construction workers is unemployed and nearly one in four bridges in the region are structurally deficient or functionally obsolete,” Mr Frye said.
“We have workers. We have work that needs to be done. What we’re missing is a commitment from Washington to invest in building our country, our state and our workforce.”
The purpose of the event – part of a summer-long campaign called Build-America 2010 – was to garner support for additional government spending on infrastructure such as roads and bridges.
But Liuna’s efforts may not succeed in the near future, given Congress reluctance to sign off on new spending amid increasing concerns about the high budget deficit and mounting debt burden.
And with few signs of a housing market recovery, there is every reason to fear that many of the construction workers and employees of related businesses who have lost jobs could remain jobless for a very long time.
“There are a significant number of people who worked building houses who are not doing that now and not likely to do that in the foreseeable future,” Doug Elmendorf, director of the Congressional Budget Office, told reporters this month.
According to an analysis of data from the US labour department, some 61,000 construction jobs were lost between May and July, as the housing market stumbled in spite of record-low mortgage rates, exacerbating fears of a “double-dip” recession.
…
How many of the ‘unemployed construction workers’ are qualified to work on bridges and other infrastructure? I don’t want some of the yahoos I saw slapping up houses four years ago let anywhere NEAR a bridge projects.
Hear, hear! And here’s hoping that, if they apply for work on a bridge project, they get turned down flat.
Oh, one more thing: The construction industry has this thing about showing up, ready to work, before your shift starts. If you show up on time, then shamble around getting yourself and your gear ready, you won’t last very long. Heck, a lot of foremen/women will just tell you to get your arse off the site and don’t even bother starting with the day. Methinks that a lot of the house slapper-uppers are among this group.
I am basically OK with infrastructure projects.
We have trillions of dollars of failing infrastructure to deal with. Failure to deal now WILL result in greater cost later (see dam burst, bridge collapse, New Orleans etc) in the form of real collateral damage. We drive on bad roads and while they don’t get fixed, we are angry when we have to repair our cars. New Orleans was smashed to bits by a preventable levee breach. Some 10,000 dams are at risk in America. and it goes on
From an investors standpoint (we are the owners), now is a GREAT time to get cheap available labor and take care of these problems, and prevent millions of debt defaults at the same time which will also have to be cleaned up at far greater cost than the original problem.
What I fear, is that these projects will be given to local governments who have to cash, and will simply do a little giggle and keep most of it for retirements etc. Worse, Illegals may be bought in to do the work, leaving Americans out in the cold.
Personally I think recessions are the ideal time to do this kind of house keeping, and unlike 99 weeks of unemployment, we get something back for our investment, and those doing the work get to do something that matters.
You can’t get CHEAP available labor. The SEIU goons and AFLCIO terrorists want you to pay PREVAILING wages which runs the cost up 50%.
So you think someone making $8hr is really going to follow safety and quality control procedures when repairing critical infrastructure? Then have I got a bridge for you!!
Maybe you missed those news stories about the falling cranes in NYC that was happening about, oh, every month. Or that bridge collapse in Minneapolis that killed how many people?
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/7972098/Japan-renews-QE-as-recovery-falters.html
Japan renews QE as recovery falters
Japan has launched a fresh monetary and fiscal boost to shore up its faltering recovery and stem the slide into deflation, becoming the first major country to inject further stimulus since the Great Recession ended.
The Bank of Japan agreed at an emergency meeting to boost its special loan facility by ¥10 trillion to ¥30 trillion (£220.7bn). “We need to watch out more carefully for downside risks to Japan’s economy,” said Governor Masaaki Shirakawa, who cut off his trip to the Jackson Hole forum in the US.
“Several weak US figures came out, while the yen rose and stock prices fell. When we saw this, we decided that we need to take more precautions.”
“…becoming the first major country to inject further stimulus since the Great Recession ended.”
Who gets to decide when these episodes end?
Last Four Recessions and their Durations
12/07 - ?
3/01 - 11/01 8 months
7/90 - 3/91 8
7/81 - 11/82 16
I lived through each one of those and it was FAR longer than those numbers indicate, not to mention they are missing the one from 1970s.
Also missing the first one from the early 80’s (the last double-dip recession…)
Evaluating Conditions in Major Chinese Housing Markets
Jing Wu, Joseph Gyourko, Yongheng Deng
NBER Working Paper No. 16189
Issued in July 2010
NBER Program(s): PE
High and rising prices in Chinese housing markets have attracted global attention, as well as the interest of the Chinese government and its regulators. Housing markets look very risky based on the stylized facts we document. Price-to-rent ratios in Beijing and seven other large markets across the country have increased from 30% to 70% since the beginning of 2007. Current price-to-rent ratios imply very low user costs of no more than 2%-3% of house value. Very high expected capital gains appear necessary to justify such low user costs of owning. Our calculations suggest that even modest declines in expected appreciation would lead to large price declines of over 40% in markets such as Beijing, absent offsetting rent increases or other countervailing factors. Price-to-income ratios also are at their highest levels ever in Beijing and select other markets. Much of the increase in prices is occurring in land values. Using data from the local land auction market in Beijing, we are able to produce a constant quality land price index for that city. Real, constant quality land values have increased by nearly 800% since the first quarter of 2003, with half that rise occurring over the past two years. State-owned enterprises controlled by the central government have played an important role in this increase, as our analysis shows they paid 27% more than other bidders for an otherwise equivalent land parcel.
AP source: Suspicious luggage sparks questioning
By EILEEN SULLIVAN
WASHINGTON — Two men on a United Airlines flight from Chicago to Amsterdam were questioned by Dutch authorities after U.S. officials found a cell phone taped to a Pepto Bismol bottle and a knife and box cutter in checked luggage connected with the men, a law enforcement official said.
The official, speaking on condition of anonymity because of the ongoing investigation, identified the men as Ahmed Mohamed Nasser al Soofi and Hezam al Murisi. Al Soofi had a Michigan address, the official said, but it was not immediately clear where the two men were from.
ABC News, which first reported the incident Monday, said al Soofi was from Detroit and that both he and al Murisi were charged in the Netherlands with “preparation of a terrorist attack.”
U.S. officials would not confirm that. Another U.S. law enforcement official who also spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive security matters said federal air marshals were on board the flight from Chicago to Amsterdam.
The law enforcement official said Al Soofi was questioned as he went through security in Birmingham, Ala., on his way to Chicago. He told the Transportation Security Administration authorities he was carrying a lot of cash, the official said. Screeners found $7,000 on him, but he was not breaking any law by carrying that much money.
Al Soofi was supposed to fly from Chicago to Washington Dulles International Airport in Virginia, and then on to Amsterdam, the official said. But when he got to Chicago, he changed his travel plans to take a direct flight from Chicago to Amsterdam. Al Murisi also changed his travel plans in Chicago to take a direct flight to Amsterdam, raising suspicion among U.S. officials.
Homeland Security spokeswoman Amy Kudwa said once officials found suspicious items in luggage associated with two passengers on Sunday night’s flight, they notified the Dutch authorities.
“The items were not deemed to be dangerous in and of themselves,” Kudwa said. She would not identify the two passengers.
It is not illegal to carry knives in checked baggage.
Residents of a southwest Detroit neighborhood where several addresses were found for variations of the name Ahmed Mohamed Nasser al Soofi declined to give their names to The Associated Press Monday evening, though at least two indicated FBI agents had visited the area.
___
“The items were not deemed to be dangerous in and of themselves,”
Sounds like they were trying to test the system. See if those items would be found. See if their change of itinerary would raise suspicion.
Anyone who finds themselves depressed over the collapsed U.S. real estate bubble can certainly find a source of cheer in an article like this one.
Caixin Online
Aug. 26, 2010, 6:55 p.m. EDT
Beijing district releases official housing vacancy rates
Chaoyang District’s figures are first of their kind to be issued in China
By Xu Ming, Caixin Online
BEIJING (Caixin Online) — Beijing’s largest district Chaoyang has issued figures showing that a total of 1.33 million square meters of residential space are vacant. Over half of the space has been empty for at least three years.
Among the empty residences, villas and luxury apartments totaled 521,000 square meters, accounting for 39.2% of the total, and 54.9% of homes have remained empty for over three years. Ordinary apartments accounted for 18% of the empty residential space, according to the report.
But the report failed to make the distinction between unsold housing and housing commonly believed unoccupied after sales.
With rising fears of an emerging property bubble, market concerns over the housing vacancy rate across China have deepened. However, little official data have been released. The Chaoyang District housing vacancy report is the first of its kind.
According to earlier media reports, 64.5 million urban electricity meters registered zero consumption over a recent, six-month period. But the figures were denied by power companies.
Andy Xie, board member of Rosetta Stone Advisors, said that the huge quantity of empty apartments represents speculation in current home purchases. Under normal market conditions, the vacancy rate should be equal to the number of households relocating, times the average transition period, plus newly formed households times the average purchase period, said Xie.
…
Wednesday, July 29, 2009
Mises dot Org: The “Ben Bernanke is Wrong” Video
Peter Schiff Was Right 2006 - 2007 (2nd Edition)
Arthur Laffer is quite a joker!
* OPINION
* AUGUST 31, 2010
TARP and the Continuing Problem of Toxic Assets
It was a bold bet that the Treasury and Fed could engineer an economic recovery without allowing the repricing of U.S. housing stock.
By ANDY KESSLER
We should have eaten those toxic assets instead of sweeping them under the carpet.
The Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP) was a foolish bait and switch. To prevent the 2008 financial crisis from worsening, TARP was originally designed to buy toxic mortgage derivatives weighing down banks and Wall Street, but no one could decide what price to pay for them. Too high and TARP would look like a government handout. But if the Treasury paid what they were worth, which was not much, financial firms would have to take huge write-offs, forcing many of them into insolvency and even nationalization.
So Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson switched plans, investing TARP funds directly into banks for a piece of equity. The idea was that banks would “earn out” their toxic portfolio—i.e., slowly write them off against the profits gained by the Federal Reserve’s zero interest rate policy. It was a bold bet that the Treasury and Fed could engineer an economic recovery without allowing the bottoming action of a sharp but swift repricing of the U.S. housing stock. It turns out they only bought time, not a recovery, and now we are paying for that mistake.
Despite all efforts, the deleveraging continues. The $862 billion Congressional stimulus didn’t stimulate the economy because it went into unproductive projects. The Fed’s $1.4 trillion quantitative easing/dollar printing sent 30-year mortgage rates to record lows, but not enough people are buying homes because home prices haven’t fallen enough to clear the inventory. And with 9.5% unemployment and 18.4% underemployed, there are more sellers than buyers.
Home sales dropped 27% from a year ago July to a 3.83 million annual rate, which was blamed on the May expiration of the $8,000 home buyer’s tax credit. Dig deeper and it’s even scarier. Existing home inventory (the number of homes for sale) now stands at four million units—that’s a 12.5-month supply versus the average 6.2-month supply since 1999. As late as 2005, home inventory was just 2.5 million. Using that as a baseline or normal number, there are now around 1.5 million “extra” homes on the market that are not selling and either empty or soon to be foreclosed.
And those toxic mortgage assets? As far as I can tell, most are still there, valued at “mark to wish” since the Financial Accounting Standards Board’s relaxation of “mark to market” accounting rules. Who knows what they’re really worth? The stock market is guessing not much, sending finance stocks like Bank of America, Wells Fargo and even J.P. Morgan down close to 52-week lows. The Dow is once again flirting with 10,000. Money that had been flowing into stocks is now flowing into bond funds.
Wall Street smells a rat. Why? Because without a housing turnaround, jobs in construction, decoration, mortgage banking, auto sales and finance will stay in the doldrums. Delinquency rates, which are a leading indicator of foreclosures, are on the rise. According to the latest Mortgage Bankers Association survey, in the second quarter, prime adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM) delinquency rates rose to 9.3%, with prime fixed-rate mortgages seeing delinquencies up 4.75%. On the subprime side, ARM delinquencies hit 30.9% with fixed at 22.5%.
This is not good for banks that still own toxic assets of any type of mortgage, subprime or not. If home prices fall further, and I can’t see too many scenarios where they won’t, these toxic assets are all set to drop in value. At some point, buyers of bank debt will get nervous. Think of these mortgage derivatives as soon to be nonperforming loans, the same ones that were a 20-year anchor dragging down Japan.
…