Bits Bucket For September 8, 2010
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The Housing Bubble
Examining the home price boom and its effect on owners, lenders, regulators, realtors and the economy as a whole.
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Name:Ben Jones
Location:Northern Arizona, United States
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“’The bottom line is that all those McMansions that were bought during this housing boom are going to go the way of the 1973 Lincoln Continental,’ Merrill Lynch’s David Rosenberg writes. The housing bubble was the most over-owned, overleveraged and oversupplied real-estate market ever, he says, and its unwinding will take years. The revival of consumers saving their money for retirement - rather than expecting their homes to provide the cushion - added with ‘move down’ buyers will depress real-estate prices, he says.”
Dow Jones, December 20, 2007
OUCH!
I’m restoring my late Aunt Fran’s 1973 Continental coupe. 49k miles. Cosmetically nearly perfect but last driven in 1996, maybe earlier. Good thing it’s easy to work on! I reckon on one more month and it’ll be on the road.
We all wish it wasn’t back on the road, mother earth included.
Farmer’s Almanac says ‘Global cooling to continue’. I didn’t get any tomatoes this year either. Less loss of Greenland and Antartica ice and snow by 50%’, experts say. Another glitch in the hoax.They keep lying to us.
And tonight it will be dark. You need to look at long term data, not 24 hrs ago. If you dont believe in science I cant help you. Tea Baggers will always look fro a reason to justify destroying the planet and bailing out corporations who do so. We cant fix you. Pismo is foggy, no place to grow anything but trailer parks.
I definitely do believe in science. I don’t have a lot of faith in statistics, though. Atmospheric CO2 level is measurable and undeniable. Global climate - much less so. I never believed 0.035% was a high enough CO2 concentration to cause global warming. Maybe some day they’ll have good evidence to the contrary, instead of the BS they’ve been publishing so far.
Jim just have a good accident and your family will be saying:
The car we can replace, but YOU we cant!!!!
That is the best argument for big gas guzzling cars…
with out air bags they will just smash into the interior and get broken. I will take a new civic over a 1973 tank anytime. Not to mention, I can actually stop and swerve to avoid an accident in a new car. In a land yacht you just go, bang, slam, doh!!
You are a pleasure to have around Jamesh.
Jim that 1973 tank DID have seatbelts, including shoulder belts in the front. The fact that people didn’t USE them…
I love to have some ‘real’ metal around me and be heavier than the other vehicle. I would love to do battle with a bunch of wimpy little priuses, civics, or toyotas in the ‘73tank.
“I would love to do battle with a bunch of wimpy little priuses, civics, or toyotas in the ‘73tank.”
Really? Take a look at this:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cJrXViFfMGk
Dang. people are so stoooopid about cars. Sure, the old cars are rigid heavy metal and won’t crunch up like modern cars in an accident, but all that energy from the crash just turns the human occupants into mush. So, you’re more likely to walk away from a crumpled new car which has taken the impact on your behalf.
Earthquakes, floods, droughts, hurricanes, tornadoes, volcanoes, avalanches and sinkholes; it’s me or her.
One of the best cars ever. Are you nuts?
Lots of oil, relax and drive a lovely, safe and American made auto.
Bear in the house.
Did the government do every possible thing in its power (and some measures actually beyond) to prop-up the value of a ‘73 Lincoln? I wonder if he saw that coming back in 2007.
“The housing bubble was the most over-owned, overleveraged and oversupplied real-estate market ever, he says, and its unwinding will take years”
Oh, GAWD, I can’t stand it! The “unwinding” shouldn’t take this long, but all that government intervention and holding out false hope is making the process interminable.
Lately I’ve been working on a project that brings me in contact with homeowners. I am shocked, I tell you, shocked to see that people are still buying in this area, in fairly significant numbers (anecdotally). At significantly reduced prices, but still buying. A few of my questions regarding the population shift in this area have been answered, though. I wondered where all the danged people came from who live in these new developments, and I’m finding out they come from other parts of the county, fleeing some of the older neighborhoods, one of which has become a known gang area complete with street shoot-outs.
I’m surprised at how many houses are selling in our neighborhood, and for what prices. Universally, they are to families with small kids. The older residents saw the ‘price bounce’ and are dumping.
There’s at least one peak buyer dumping at a loss with a 1.13 purchase price in 2007 and a 1.06 listing price today.
Wow, only 70k nominal loss plus taxes, realtor fees, and other associated transaction fees. What a deal!
Based on what I’ve seen, it’ll sell, and some other young family will be taking a crippling hit to their net worth in the next few years.
Holy shite. I’m tempted to send an offer for $225k. That’s the most I’d pay for that place. Maybe $250k if it DIDN’T have the pool.
The pool is extra hilarious as it takes up basically the entire back yard, with extra steep non-compliant stairs (too tall with very short stepping area) and very close to the house. And they put up a portable fence around it to keep kids from drowning during the open house.
It would definitely sell more easily without the pool.
Fill it with dirt and grow worms. Another cottage industry for the dems.Give me my investment tax credit.
How about filling it with Pismo. Another cottage industry for grumpy people. Give me a break from the rubbish and the smokescreens. We see you.
Most are pretty badly laid out to convert to 2 apartments….the only other uses are half way houses for ex cons or the retarded….or for extended families…all of which violates local zoning or the HOA rules.
all those McMansions that were bought during this housing boom
On the other hand, some of the larger McMansions are very well suited to commune-like living, where each bedroom has its own bath (the “princess suite”), but they share common areas like the kitchen and living room. Each familial unit could live in one room just like the old tenements of New York or Baltimore. Of course, the tenements were in walking or transit distance of work. These McMansions are not. So I guess the real problem is that zero-lot-line building does not allow enough lawn space for all the vehicles.
“So I guess the real problem is that zero-lot-line building does not allow enough lawn space for all the vehicles.”
Maybe start paving over the front lawns? I think this is a real possibility, at some point.
I’ve seen paved over front yards full of cars in the more ghetto-ey areas, so it stands to reason it’s coming to the McMansion developments any day now!
well suited to commune-like living ??
And that may be the route that many of them go particularly in these no-man lands….Multiple $10. per hour jobs with a few SS checks and some food stamps and there ya go…
does not allow enough lawn space for all the vehicles ??
Plenty of overflow street parking…
NOPE…lots of HOA wont allow street parking, they purposely made narrow streets so this would not happen….. now maybe they will have a big parking lot way, way down the end of the development…
yeah walking a mile in the 115degree AZ heat to park your car. because the roommate gets your space in the garage in exchange for the rent being on time..
—————
does not allow enough lawn space for all the vehicles ??
Plenty of overflow street parking…
HOA ??
I thought we were talking about McMansions ??
Only private streets have HOA”s
NOPE…lots of HOA wont allow street parking ?
Well, if it is a HOA then we will just need to Bus them in
“Only private streets have HOA’s”
Not really. We have an HOA. They mostly take care of a large park we have in the neighborhood. What sucks is that the park isn’t private, but we have to pay for its upkeep. We also get snow removal duing the winter (the city won’t plow residential streets). We also have CC&R’s, which keep people from painting their house pink or parking theie semi tractor on the street.
It’s $30 a month.
We also have CC&R’s, which keep people from painting their house pink or parking theie semi tractor on the street.
Awwww, that’s no fun.
My next door neighbor recently painted her house pink, and it’s given me no end of amusement. Take, for example, me on the phone, giving directions to my house:
“Make a right turn onto Slim Street. Mine’s the second one in from the corner. It’s the White House that’s right next to the Pink House.”
Yes but its still a public street and the HOA does not govern that the municipality does…
Vehicles? Most noticeable change in ex GF’s old urban hood is the dwindling number of cars in the last two years, Two years ago every hood rad had a hooptie mobile parked in the skreet with iffy 30 day tags. I had to park 6 to 8 houses away. Now? Gone! Two or three cars on the whole block. Many adults riding bikes! Is this the new hopey changey thing? What possible need wood a retard or ex con need a car for in a half way house? Most of these people will never work a real job.
What possible need wood a retard or ex con need a car for in a half way house?
I guess they woodn’t.
I guess they woodn’t.
So we can chuck the parking problem?
They wood need to move to Boise.
And live in a house made of…… would.
You guys krack me up…
We see that a lot here in San Diego in the 92130 zip code, where Asian families pool to buy $1 Million homes and then all shack up together…
My family has bought this up, but I cannot “really” see living with the inlaws…
Asian families pool to buy $1 Million homes ??
Common practice around here and not just with Asian’s…
I enjoy vacationing in SoCal but I would NEVER want to move back.
You guys have no imagination whatsoever.
-Buy McMansion with no/little money down.
-Install multiple cameras with streaming video
-Find college girls in need of a room and/or job, who have “daddy issues”
-The operative phrase……”Pay per View”.
Ca-CHING!
At first thought, I felt McMansions would follow the same trek as the Victorian or great Captains’ homes along the coast. During good times people will resurrect and beautify them. During tough times they’ll deteriorate and possibly be subdivided into condos. But then again, the McMansions were never built with the same pride/quality as the larger homes from previous eras so their usable life is probably much, much shorter.
Palmetto, I still know people moving to Florida from the Northeast and not all are retirement moves. I’m curious. Are these buyers you talk to arriving with work already settled or are they moving there with the intention of finding work after the move? If they’re mostly retirement age, maybe they’re escaping the nasty taxes some of us are looking at in the Northeast.
One more nice oil shock will hasten the disinvestment process considerably. And in today’s world that’s a possibility that’s always on the table. Banks holding large numbers of those behemoths might be wise to unload them before anything “unexpected” happens.
If the grand homes of the Victorian era/Guilded Age could be disinvested and turned to rubble during the middle of the last century - then there’s no way those McMansions will fare any better.
If the grand homes of the Victorian era/Guilded Age could be disinvested and turned to rubble during the middle of the last century - then there’s no way those McMansions will fare any better.
The grand homes of Chicago’s Gilded Age were still coming down in the 1990s — plenty of the old Prairie Ave. mansions limped along through most of the century, only to fall during the transformation of the near South Side into a giant condo park / strip mall.
Latter-day McMansions, built half as well with only a quarter of the charm, won’t fare nearly as well. And that’s no loss.
“…half as well, with only a quarter of the charm….”
You are being generous.
the nasty taxes some of us are looking at in the Northeast ??
And the West…I just spent the weekend with some friends one of which built a new home in Reno NV. but kept their home here…Moved residency to NV…The tax savings on both their pensions and other income is paying for the Reno house and some…
I wish I had a 1973 Lincoln Continental today!
Two words: Barnett Jackson
Wall Street Firms to Cut 80,000 Jobs in 18 Months, Whitney Says.
Securities firms around the world will cut as many as 80,000 jobs in the next 18 months as revenue growth begins to slow, said Meredith Whitney, the former Oppenheimer & Co. analyst who now runs her own firm.
The reductions, about 10 percent of current levels, will come after 2010 compensation payments, Whitney, 40, said in a report dated Aug. 31 and obtained by Bloomberg News today. The industry’s payouts will be “down dramatically,” said Whitney, who started New York-based Meredith Whitney Group after correctly predicting Citigroup Inc.’s dividend cut in 2007.
“The key product drivers of Wall Street’s revenues and profits over the past decade have been in a structural decline over the past three years,” Whitney said in the report. “2010 marks the first year in many in which Wall Street-centric firms will go through structural changes.”
I once spent a few years of my life “making the world safe for [fill in the name of an investment bank of your choice].” I needed the money to pay off my student loans, and to be very fair, when I started the job, the investment banks had not shifted their culture all the way over from serving their customers to serving themselves. The business model was a bit different. And at the time, I think I barely knew what an investment bank was. I learned, quickly.
So I find my conflicted here. There are a lot of people around my age and with similar backgrounds who made a life for themselves working in this part of the economy. A lot of them are out of work and those jobs are not coming back. This is good for society. We don’t need that many people spending their time helping little bits of green paper move around the world (thanks, Douglas Adams), especially not when they skim off that much money in the process. But they are just as displaced as the people whose call center jobs went to India and the manufacturing folks whose jobs are never coming back from elsewhere. Maybe they are more displaced. It is always possible that jobs that moved could come back. Not likely, but possible. A lot of these jobs simply aren’t needed. It could be decades before the overall economy expands enough for the finance sector to need that many people again - too late for this group. And I wonder what role in society those folks can fulfill with their education and skills? Being a lawyer means you can hang a shingle, but it doesn’t mean you can make a living at it. For the bankers themselves, well, they don’t have any idea how to originate loans at a community bank, though they could package and securitize them for you. Some of these folks originally studied to be scientists. Does science want them back? I doubt it.
It is going to be a long, painful ride down. Just watching it will be hard enough. I am so very grateful that having been on the slide once, I decided I didn’t want to ever have to do that again. I got off the ride, but my choice is not available to all of them, or even a substantial number.
Ouch.
“Some of these folks originally studied to be scientists.”
Here’s where the economic distortion lies: During the boom the smartest kids in school became financial wizards instead of scientific wizards. Financial wizards produce nothing; Scientific wizards produce everything that is cutting edge.
Cutting edge is where our society needs to go. Take away the lure of Wall Street and cutting edge may make a return.
It’s all good.
I’d forgotten all about that shift from science to finance. In fact I know of a guy who was an engineer and started working for hedge funds 15 years ago. He was let go from a hedge fund recently.
He’s got a small family, so I hope he finds some sort of work. And happiness, too, because he completely changed when he went from engineering to finance.
Is he even remotely qualified to work in the field he left? 15 years is a long time to be out of a profession that changes and advances constantly.
“He’s got a family, so I hope he finds some sort of work.”
He’s probably screwed. But the good of this is his being screwed sends a signal to all the young students in school who are at the crossroads of deciding just what it is that they want to do with their lives.
Seeing that your friend is screwed, and it is Wall Street that screwed him, the message these students may get is Wall Street is not the place they want to go.
You’re right, polly, he probably won’t be able to go back to engineering. He did OK in the hedge fund game, had a fairly frugal lifestyle compared to many. The sad thing is, he was a good engineer back in the day and enjoyed the work, but was looked down upon by a family member in finance, as well as some friends, because he wasn’t making big buck$. I know this affected him deeply and made him somewhat bitter, watching these guys with less smarts rake in the dough. I think that was largely the drive behind his career change.
“watching these guys with less smarts rake in the dough.”
I have met too many scientists that cannot grasp this “sentient” part of the way the world works. Scientists typically struggle with emotional intelligence while hucksters exploit it.
Even if you are frugal, 15 years is not enough time to save for ultra early retirement. These folks will have to get jobs somewhere. And retraining is of limited use when the corporations are willing to either outsource skilled work or bring in H1B’s who have the background and experience too. The next few years are going to be ugly.
Sorry, can’t generate ANY sympathy for anyone involved in the Financial business.
For too many years, these guys have been developing schemes to strip the wealth/cash out of regular businesses, and pressuring management to generally throw the regular guy under the bus, be it thru outsourcing, cutting/robbing pension plans, layoffs to get the stock price up, etc. etc.
Karma is a Bit#h
X-GS, unfortunately, the ones who deserve the karma are getting the bonuses. There are probably plenty of working stiffs at Goldman Sachs who hate what they do but get the shaft anyway. That’s why this is so sad. The lower rungs are being held hostage.
Not much sympathy for sycophants here, either.
Just like the white collar sector thinking their jobs were safe while supporting J6P’s jobs going offshore because “$22hr is too much for a factory job,” only to see their jobs go later.
Beep! Beep! That karma just ran over your dogma.
Quite a few of my friends in Engineering school who couldn’t make the grade dropped into medicine. I suppose some of these financial wizards could become nurses at least.
Really, it is not a shame that people have spent a couple of decades in jobs that didn’t benefit society and now have to reinvent themselves. It also does not seem a shame that most of them will never make $250,000 again skimming off of our economy.
investment banking jobs.. didn’t benefit society? What qualifies as a benefit to society and what doesn’t?
How do the cosmetics or fashion industries benefit society? I might come up with a whole lot of industries that benefit society far less than those banks.
Exactly. One thing people tend to forget is that money is, in the end, only a medium of exchange, so we don’t have to go around carrying eggs to trade for some butter or fabric or whatever. Money is only as valuable as the goods and services it represents. It has to be exchanged to have any value. When it is manipulated and hoarded, it loses value, since it is not exchanged for anything of real worth.
Much of the pay that the finance folks received was a form of malinvestment, in that they did not add value to society through exchange and in fact provided harmful exchange in most cases.
What they did in the course of their work, they would definitely NOT want their auto mechanic to do.
I’ve never been a big fan of saying people are only good for a single slot of the workforce. It reminds me too much of the communist countries back when the kids were divided into different training venues at very tender ages. I guess I’ve seen too many superstars that were really kind of at the mediocre level until something inspired or bumped them into superstar abilities. I mean Einstein, Lucille Ball, Michael Jordan, Thomas Edison were all told at one point they’d never be anything and should try a different course in life.
My experience has shown me curious, inventive, driven people succeed in multiple areas of life. Experience, though important, can be accumulated more quickly by these types through the right attitude and the right people around him/her to fact check. IE Dr. Sanjay Gupta is a trained brain surgeon. But it seems he handles the reporter gig just fine. I think the real problem is not that most American don’t have experience as much as they are really not in the mood to go through re-education and endure another round of hard work/low pay through a 2nd pay your dues period. What ever. The old dogs that can’t or won’t learn new tricks can move aside and let the true rainmakers take those slots. That survival of the fittest characteristic of our system still serves us well that way.
..Money is only as valuable as the goods and services it represents.
Creating goods and services requires a lot of money.
In order to construct and finance a business which gainfully employs numerous people and creates those goods or services, you need one hell of a big chunk of start-up money.
Someone will have to search for, find and gather that money together into a pile..
There is nothing wrong with a flexible finance sector. Finance is about moving money from the people who have it but don’t know what to do with it, to the people who have something useful to do with it, but don’t have it. That is not a bad thing at all. But there are plenty of parts of our finance sector, especially over the past decade or more, that have *nothing* to do with that useful role.
Credit default swaps being one of them. CDSs mean that the market’s natural limit on how much risk can be put on society by the debt of a particular entity is compromised. Use Ford as an example. Ford can borrow a lot of money. They have a use for it. But the market won’t lend them a trillion dollars. The company can’t use a trillion dollars. Their business is too small. So Ford’s debt is limited by the amount of money the market thinks it can use well and that means that not everyone in the world can lose money if Ford defaults. With CDSs, that control is partially broken. Ford still can only borrow what the market will lend it, but lots and lots of other people who don’t own Ford debt may be at risk if Ford’s business falters and it defaults. Everyone in the world could be at risk if they all owned credit default swaps on Ford’s debt. In addition, the CDSs reduce the demand for Ford debt (by providing an alternative) which means that Ford has less demand for its real debt and has to pay more to get the money it needs.
Oh, and the CDSs aren’t traded on a regulated exchange, so you can’t even use them to properly figure out what the market thinks is the risk for Ford defaulting. No one should ever have bailed out any holder of a CDS. Maybe a few of the really naive ones who were lied to about what they were buying should have been able to go to the front of the line to get paid off by AIG, but the rest?
GS knew about the counterparty risks. If they could have dumped their high risk bonds by selling them in the market, they would have. But they couldn’t without putting a signal in the market that someone who owned a lot of the bonds had figured out they were risky. So they bought “insurance” in a way that didn’t send a signal to the market and counted on AIG being able to pay it off. Then “AIG” got bailed out and they won the lottery. Not useful. Not at all. If CDSs were on an exchange, buying the swaps would have sent the same market signal that selling the bond would have.
So, yeah, finance can do a lot of good stuff. But not everything it does is good. And a lot of it is simply toxic. The high frequency trading is of no use to anyone except the people who use their ultra high speed computers to make trades that are guaranteed to make money that regular people don’t have access to.
P.S. - I have no reason to believe that Ford will default on any of its debt. No knowledge. No reason. No nothing. It is just a nice, easy to type large company name.
Oh, the other thing that CDSs do is to artificially inflate demand for sovreign debt. A person who wants Ford’s debt, but can’t find any to buy at a price they want, can buy US treasuries and Ford CDSs and own the economic equivalent to Ford debt. But, they have reduced the demand for Ford debt by not going out in the market and competing for it and they have inflated the demand for US debt by buying it when they did’t really want it. Market distortion. Not good stuff.
Carrie Ann, I think you’re making good points. I don’t think people would mind giving up their paid-dues and going back to school for — say, another masters in Engineering to get back on track, or for a two-year degree in a trade field. But it’s not really worthwhile unless
(a) they knew for sure there was a job at the end of it
Unfortunately, companies outsource and insource and have to hit the numbers. Who say the new job would last any better than the old job? People are thinking, why bother?
(b) they knew that they could survive a lower-level lifestyle. Yes, some will cling to their Escalades, but i think plenty of people wouldn’t mind going back to, say, a technologically advanced version of the late 70’s.
However, where are the 1400 sq ft houses at prices that you could support on a single trades income? Where is the reasonable health care? Where are the neighborhoods where the public school isn’t a war zone? Where is the state-school where Junior can live at home and work summers for tuition? You’re only choice is condo-townhome-Mcmansion, colleges that are either $20K or $50K per year, and health care that either costs and arm and a leg, or costs an arm a leg and several first-borns. There IS no lower-level lifestyle anymore, and so people can’t afford to train for a lower-level job, even if the job was stable for 15-20 years.
So people have to hang on to their current career.
Then “AIG” got bailed out and they won the lottery. Not useful. Not at all.
We should remember that AIG owed and, thanks only to the bailout, was able to pay off a lot of debt it legitimately owed to trusting, innocent “little” people and businesses.
——
Sure, new things like CDS pop up once in a while and can be dangerous under peculiar circumstances, like if millions of people are sucked into a maniacal lending-borrowing frenzy the likes of which the world has never seen before.
Are CDS especially dangerous today? Nope.. No more dangerous than anything else.
“Where is the state-school where Junior can live at home and work summers for tuition? You’re only choice is condo-townhome-Mcmansion, colleges that are either $20K or $50K per year”
My live at home daughter pays $4000 a year for her college tuition. We are lucky in that there are three State U’s within driving distance of the the house.
CDSs are most certainly dangerous today. They distort the lending market by hiding the market forces that price debt.
Many types of derivatives are a curse on the average American non “finance” worker. Hedge funds building oil tankers are not doing it to further anyone’s standard of living other than themselves. What other wonderful “products” will these parasites dream up?
..They distort the lending market ..
From another perspective they throw light on the lending market.
When lots of people are willing to risk good money on CDS, it informs the world that there’s more than likely a bunch of really bad debt floating around.
“How do the cosmetics or fashion industries benefit society?”
They help make ladies more attractive, increasing the probability they will reproduce, resulting in a future generation of worker bees to support you in your old age.
They help make ladies more attractive, increasing the probability they will reproduce, resulting in a future generation of worker bees to support you in your old age.
LOL - damn good answer!
“When it is manipulated and hoarded, it loses value, since it is not exchanged for anything of real worth.”
No, the real reason that it loses value is that the Fed intentionally steals a small fraction of its value every year.
“There IS no lower-level lifestyle anymore, and so people can’t afford to train for a lower-level job, even if the job was stable for 15-20 years.”
In general, I understand and agree w/your commtary about cost of living. But I’m not sure we’re comparing the same expenditures then and now when we say there is no affordable place to live.
Back when I was living on a shoestring, we didn’t shell out of our income for Starbucks, large and multiple tvs, ipods, laptops that require replacement every 2-3 years, internet connection, cell phones or smart phones and their monthly fees, cable television. We didn’t pay for teeth whiteners or adult braces. We sunned ourselves down at the local beach that we often rode our bikes to not during our Outer Banks vacation with the girls. Get togethers were
potluck and BYOB.
When we talk about affordable living, how many of these items would we really be willing to give up and how many of these extra expenditures have become non-negotiatble? How many expenditures would we refuse to give up because our friends haven’t? I think that’s the problem w/retrofitting our lifestyles for the new normal.
Exactly. One thing people tend to forget is that money is, in the end, only a medium of exchange, so we don’t have to go around carrying eggs to trade for some butter or fabric or whatever. Money is only as valuable as the goods and services it represents. It has to be exchanged to have any value. When it is manipulated and hoarded, it loses value, since it is not exchanged for anything of real worth.
A. Don’t lump together “manipulated” with “hoarded”. They can be - and often are - completely opposite. Manipulation includes creation, which has the opposite effect of hoarding.
B. Hoarding would not have the effect of causing money to be less valuable - rather the opposite - it has the effect of making the rest of the (non-hoarded) money more valuable, due to it’s growing scarcity. Econ 101 - it’s basic supply and demand. Think about the principle of food when a snowstorm is coming - or plywood during a hurricane. I saw this first hand in Florida with Andrew in 1992. Plywood became immensely valuable (and thus resulted in “price gouging”) before and after the hurricane (before to protect windows, after to patch roof holes).
Carrie:
you are forgetting some of these are not luxuries anymore, they are necessities to produce income….even for “intern” jobs
Back when I was living on a shoestring, we didn’t shell out of our income for Starbucks, large and multiple tvs, ipods, laptops that require replacement every 2-3 years, internet connection, cell phones or smart phones and their monthly fees, cable television
JoeyinCA,
No. It does not shed light on the lending market. If they had to actually buy Ford debt, it would increase demand, increase the price and, therefore, lower Ford’s borrowing costs for their next bond issue. But CDSs are privately placed. You don’t have a traded market price, so you don’t have good info on the debt (you may have some leaked info on the simplest forms, but that isn’t close to the whole market). Also, Ford, whose good business practices gave it good credit, doesn’t get to benefit from the hard work they did. Someone else does. It is the same thing as stealing someone’s trademark. It is NOT a valuable part of getting information in the market. Publicly traded bonds do that just fine.
CDSs put the overall economy at risk for a huge wealth shift that drawfs the amount of wealth shift you would get if the real debt that is issued defaults. Huge. It makes pension funds and all sorts of other pools of money think they have safe investments when they don’t because they don’t understand counterparty risk. It is not stable. It is not good for business. But it is very profitable for invetment banks.
aNYCdj,
To a degree, what you say is true. Just as ‘transportation’ was added to Food, Clothing & Shelter back in the 70’s.
Still, Carrie is right, “large and multiple tvs” aren’t going to open any doors for you, and she was generous enough to leave out the ‘necessity’ of GPS and Sat. radio in your car?
polly..
…the (CDS) market increased tremendously starting in 2003. By the end of 2007, the outstanding amount was $62.2 trillion, falling to $38.6 trillion by the end of 2008.
(wikipedia.. Credit default swap page)
That market shrunk by 40% in one year?? How much did it further shrink in 2009 and 2010? Where is it today?
It really looks as though the wild CDS market was dependent on the housing/lending mania and cannot survive without it, and that it is naturally fixing itself..
——-
You don’t like the idea that banks made lots of money on all the trades. Personally, I don’t care if banks made money or not, because that doesn’t affect me.
Through a rapid-expansion plan, all will have an opportunity for full employment at Five-Guys Burgers and Fries. Its all good.
They’re opening a franchise in Tucson. It’s in the space that was recently vacated by a Hollywood Video.
In N Out is gonna fight 5 Guys to see who can expand more.
To this I say thank god because it will get all the displaced Californians to shut up about that place.
To this I say thank god because it will get all the displaced Californians to shut up about that place.
Oh man, but have you ever been to an In N Out burger place? The burgers are so good. The fries are fresh cut every day! I mean they’re not frozen at all. An the beef is never frozen. It’s like the raddest burger out there.
The menu is minimal, and the shakes are really good too, like real ice cream.
I just ate but thinking about this is making me hungry again. I wish they had one in Rio…
“…the investment banks had not shifted their culture all the way over from serving their customers to serving themselves.”
The Lord helps best those who help themselves.
Translation: Screw the clients.
The Lord helps best those who help themselves.
The Goldman Sachs corporate motto.
So that’s what “doing God’s work” means? I’ve been puzzled about that for a while now.
One would hope that those in the Financial Wizardry industry had the foresight to aggressively build up their nest egg by mid-career. Moving forward, those earning 250k in salaried jobs beware - you have a huge target pinned to your back.
There are so many people I’ve met in this area that are ex Wall Street/traders. So I guess I could report at least a few made hay while the sun was shining and then got out of Dodge. The ones I know well enough to comment on are living a relaxed and outwardly cautious lifestyle.
We have a friend who’s son is working there now and although we only hear filtered info I think its fair to say he knows the situation.
Here’s a contrarian view. I’ve suggested to my younger daugher, now a junior in high school, to consider finance as a career.
Unlike those now in the field, she hasn’t grown up with a lifestyle that can only be supported by ripping people off, and is willing to work for a reasonable salary. And she doesn’t have the inclination to rip people off.
So look foward eight years. All the pirates would have been discredited, purged, or slinked away when they could no longer accumulate massive unearned wealth.
And finance needs more people, not fewer, to do the boring things they stopped doing, such as due dillegance. Not more people making $300,000 per year and expecting $5 million bonuses. More people making $80,000 per year, perhaps $150,000 if they are supervisors. A good living if you don’t have to be evil in the bargain.
In fact, I think its a good time to start a new bank. “We’re not evil” could be the slogan.
Not a bad idea at all. It will take a while for the banks to get used to having a large cadre of educated people doing due diligence rather than relying on “magic math” to say that it doen’t matter what the quality of the loans are. The sector is going to have to lose productivity gains because those gains came from *not* doing the work that was required.
But I think that the folks in their 40’s and 50’s who are getting laid off now are going to have a horrible time finding a new slot in which to fit.
Only at the lifestyle to which they have become accustomed.
But I think that the folks in their 40’s and 50’s who are getting laid off now are going to have a horrible time finding a new slot in which to fit.
Unlike Jacquelyn Kotarac.
“…a large cadre of educated people…”
What country would this be?
“It could be decades before the overall economy expands enough for the finance sector to need that many people again - too late for this group. And I wonder what role in society those folks can fulfill with their education and skills?”
Most folks who are bright enough to get along on Wall Street can figure out how to reinvent themselves, and there is a very high probability those reinvented selves will do something more socially useful than siphon off the wealth of others. Personally, I am more concerned about long-term unemployed who are either too old or otherwise unable to retool their skills to fit any possible future occupation. Good luck to all.
“they don’t have any idea how to originate loans at a community bank, though they could package and securitize them for you”
( That’s the real gem in there people! ) LOL
Yeah…tell me about the banksters and the RE agents.
Me and my agent just found out today that my short sale FB do have a second lien, when their RE agent said that they only had one loan on thier shack !!
Am I the ONLY honest criminal left in America !?!
I had a guidance counselor that asked me what I would like to do after HS.
Once I said that I thought I would enjoy being a lawyer, that would be nice, as I had no major felony convictions or outstanding warrants at that point.
I believe that she had some big rubber ink stamps with “Too Naive” and “Too Stupid” and a rather large red ink pad made up just for me.
I really don’t know what she had in my Ultra-Secret HS “Permanent File” but judging by her endless laughter, I really broke up the monotony of her routine days.
Back in the late 1990s, I met up with one of my high school guidance counselors. He asked what I was doing to make a living. My reply: “Graphic designer.”
Boy, was that the wrong answer! He said, in a very snippy tone of voice, “Graphic designer? You don’t have to go to college to do that!”
Well, sir, you’re durn right I didn’t have to go to college to learn how to do graphic design. Matter of fact, I learned the basics in the commercial art program back in…
…high school.
The computer software know-how came via learning by doing, reading some books, and consulting this amazing resource called the Internet.
And, unlike a lot of those vaunted college grads that this guy also counseled, I didn’t (and still don’t) have to depend on an employer to make a living.
While this means that my work life consists of a never-ending hunt for the next gig, even when I’m snowed under with work, that’s also true of anyone who employs others. If you’re boss isn’t out there selling his or her heart out, your job just isn’t going to be around for long.
Methinks that the whole guidance counseling schtick, with its worship of the college degree, needs a major rewrite.
“as revenue growth begins to slow”
That’s a pretty loaded phrase, don’t you think? They aren’t laying off people because they’re losing money. They aren’t laying off people because they are breaking even. They aren’t even laying off people because their profit margin is too low. They are laying off people because their profits aren’t growing fast enough; e.g. they wanted to increase PROFIT from 8% to 12% but instead they only increased from 8% to 11%. And they lay people off for this.
Do not they understand that revenue growth is likely asymtptotic and that they are spiraling themselves out of existance?
“Do not they understand that revenue growth is likely asymtptotic and that they are spiraling themselves out of existance?”
Bad parasites end up killing the host. And then themselves.
Darwin.
Our government’s job is to foil Darwin, apparently.
Ebola
Our government’s job is to foil Darwin, apparently.
It has been lately.
Once plankton die off, whales are soon to follow.
Uncontrolled capitalism devours itself. A lesson that apparently has to be periodically relearned the hard way. ‘Experience runs a dear school, but fools will learn in no other’.
What brought us here was not uncontrolled capitalism, it was the unholy alliance between corporations and government. This alliance is what led to banks giving mortgages to people who could not afford them. Social engineering at the expense of good business sense. Uncontrolled capitalism is what leads those stingy old banks to only loan large amounts of money to people who don’t need it. I used to hate that old irony, ironically.
varelse - there’s no point in making such points with some people on this board. They can’t see it.
Re: banks lending money to people who don’t need it -
A banker is a fellow who lends you his umbrella when the sun is shining, but wants it back the minute it begins to rain.
- Mark Twain
The moral of the story? Buy your own umbrella, don’t borrow it from someone else.
What brought us here was not uncontrolled capitalism, it was the unholy alliance between corporations and government. that loosened the government’s regulation of the large corporations and to a large extent, American capitalism.
The two issues are not mutually exclusive. Why would they have to be?
varelse- How do you feel about monopolies?
What brought us here was not uncontrolled capitalism; it was the unholy alliance between corporations and government.
Nice try.
It was the unholy alliance between corporations and government that removed the controls on capitalism, thus giving us — guess what? — uncontrolled capitalism!
thus giving us — guess what? — uncontrolled capitalism!
“The Maestro” would beg to differ.
How do you feel about monopolies?
Personally, I love ‘em! Especially when I get to be the race car
Because ya gotta hit the numbers Ox, hit the numbers….your whole life is dependent on hitting the numbers.
make it work..hit the numbers…..that mindset is what needs to be fixed.
Speaking of hitting the numbers Larry Ellison hired Mark Hurd to be his second in command (I wonder if this wasn’t pre-planned).
If I worked at Sun Microsystems I would be polishing up my resume and would start looking for a new job before Markie sends the remaining jobs to India.
Their revenue growth comes from new products. When credit default swaps were invented, that created huge revenue growth. When someone figured out that credit card receivables could be securitized just like car loans could, that created revenue growth. Setting up the structure for new products requires people. Once they have it set up, they cut those folks and keep a smaller group to run and grow the product. In the old days, the best of them would peel off to make up another new product, so no lay offs. If they think new products will be hard to make up for whatever reason, then their natural cycle will cause lay offs.
Also, my constant rant, the top level executives get their maximum bonuses based on profits increasing. They will do pretty much anything to make sure they get their full bonuses. You wouldn’t want some of these guys to have to live on their $5 million base pay plus minimum bonus, would you?
To pick nits - revenue and profit are not the same thing.
Thus one can easily experience “slowing revenue growth” at the same time as experiencing increasing profit growth. And vice versa. Or shrinkage of one and growth of the other.
Isn’t that where the layoffs come in to play?
“Wall Street Firms to Cut 80,000 Jobs in 18 Months, Whitney Says.”
Am I being overly optimistic to suggest that relatively more affordable housing in Manhattan is soon to follow?
Well, something has kept the market from correcting here.
Two things have happened: a housing bubble, and a structural shift in which real estate close to the center has become more desirable relative to real estate out in the burbs.
Thirty years ago it was the opposite — there was property in Manhattan and close-in parts of Brooklyn that was so worthless it was abandoned. Hotels were converted to rooming houses for discharged mental patients.
So even if the metropolitan area market deflates back to where it should be, I doubt Manhattan will be “affordable” anytime soon. But it should cost less than it does now.
In 1996, I could have bought my 400 square foot studio in Brooklyn for $32,000. Should have bought a two bedroom in that building. Sigh.
My dad used to say at least once per fishing trip; “Back in the 40s I could have bought one of these islands in Ontario for $1,000, but who had $1,000.”
real estate close to the center has become more desirable relative to real estate out in the burbs
Exactly….I see it everywhere both residential & commercial…
A “terror” attack?
“relatively” (compared to recent pricing)
I wonder how much of this is related to headlines that say small time investors have been moving what’s left of their money out of stocks, mbs, and other wall street creations into bonds, and do to the fact that there is less money to invest, and more unemployment. Pensions and other remaining investors may not want what Wall Street is selling.
State of Ohio bans Outsourcing to India.
http://www.livemint.com/2010/09/08203042/The-fear-of-offshoring.html?h=B
http://abovethelaw.com/2010/09/protectionism-finds-a-home-in-ohio/
Some Marco Island, Fla., hotels risk closure waiting for BP claims checks
Some small hotels on scenic Marco Island, Fla., say they’re on the verge of closing unless they receive checks from the $20 billion pot that BP created for oil-spill-related business claims, local CBS affiliate WINK News, reports.
Marco Island’s Lakeside Inn, for instance, tells the TV station that it’s two weeks away from having to shut its doors unless they receive a claims check for damages related to the BP oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico. The hotel received an $11,000 check in June to help them get through the tough summer season, but nothing since then, the story says.
Since the Gulf Coast Claims Facility - run by Kenneth Feinberg - on Aug. 23 took over the claims operation from BP, the hotel says its claim has been “under review,” the TV station says.
Will claims checks ever come?
A July story by Bloomberg, however, notes that it’s not clear that hotels and other businesses hurt by the decline in tourism will be eligible for claims.
“Feinberg, whom President Obama appointed to handle claims, told the House Small Business Committee in Washington that determining whether to pay businesses and individuals that didn’t suffer direct damage is among the most difficult issues he faces,” Bloomberg reported on July 1.
What does Marco Island have to do with an oil spill La/Miss/Fla panhandle? Have they actually seen oil or are we talking about $$ for perceived loss?
It’s Marco Island, WantsOut. That place has suffered from a lack of logic for a long time.
Matter of fact, I can remember during-my-childhood conversations between my mother and her mother about how stupid the place was.
I was going to throw in a snarky remark Slim but thought I’d be nice.
I was on the Atlantic coast of FL this season, and the merchants there were saying they were having a good year because everyone was opting for vacationing on the Atlantic coast to avoid the possibility of oil on their beach on the Gulf Coast. So it’s not hard to imagine how a business that was in an area that wasn’t actually oiled would still seek damages. As long as they were in an area where it could reasonably be expected for the spill to reach, and that includes pretty much the entire Gulf Coast of FL.
I made a quick trip to NE Ohio in late July.
While there, I had lunch with a fellow whose wife’s family owns a canoe livery on the Cuyahoga River. He said that business was booming.
Why? Because of staycations.
People couldn’t afford to go away, but they sure could swing a day’s float down the Cuyahoga. And they were doing so to the point that this man had to excuse himself from our lunch table before all of us were finished.
“People couldn’t afford to go away, but they sure could swing a day’s float down the Cuyahoga. And they were doing so to the point that this man had to excuse himself from our lunch table before all of us were finished.”
Why, did it catch on fire…again ?
Why, did it catch on fire…again ?
Just makes it that much more exciting when you’re riding the rapids!
Oops! I left a detail or two out of my story. Here’s what was missing:
The canoe livery was quite busy on the Saturday that I had lunch with this man and others at his company. And, since the livery was busy, he had to go and help his wife get more canoes on the water so that the livery could accommodate all of its customers.
As for the Cuyahoga River catching fire, that happened in Cleveland many years ago. This particular livery is way upstream — before you get to Akron.
And, no, you can’t canoe through Akron. That’s where the Cuyahoga is dammed and serves as the city water reservoir. The cops will come out to your canoe and arrest you. So don’t even try it.
WSJ Blogs
Developments
Real estate news and analysis from The Wall Street Journal
Home Buyer Tax Credit Price Tag: $22 Billion
September 7, 2010, 3:57 PM ET.
Housing Inventories Rise for Eighth Straight Month
Housing inventories rose in many U.S. cities for the eighth straight month in August in a sign of the continued headwinds facing a soft housing market.
The number of available homes for sale in 26 major metropolitan areas at the end of August increased 0.4% from one month earlier, according to figures compiled by ZipRealty Inc., a real-estate brokerage firm based in Emeryville, Calif. The figures include all single-family homes, condominiums and townhouses listed on local multiple-listing services in markets where the firm operates.
Inventories traditionally rise modestly in August. Zelman & Associates, a research firm, says listings have typically risen by 2% in August over the past 28 years.
The less-than-average gain in inventories is troubling, nonetheless, because demand has fallen sharply since a tax credit to spur sales expired earlier this year. At the current pace, it would take 12.5 months to clear the backlog of unsold homes, according to the National Association of Realtors. A healthy market typically a six-month supply of homes. Inventories nationally remain at their highest levels since November 2008, according to Zelman data.
The August inventory in the 26 markets tracked by ZipRealty showed a 10.6% year-over-year increase in the number of unsold homes listed for sale. A number of cities, including Houston, Philadelphia, and Orange County, Calif., remain at 18 month highs. “It’s across the country where you’re seeing really big inventory levels,” says Pat Lashinsky, chief executive of ZipRealty.
For what it’s worth my realtor sends me automated listings with relatively tight parameters every day. Normally I see 2-6 new listings. This morning 19 new and 2 price change.
WantsOut
What area?
Gee, I usually make one comment a month and now I get shutoff for 2 within 60 seconds.
North of Boston
Home Equity Lines of Credit, the Next Looming Disaster?
Posted by Keith Jurow 09/07/10 8:00 AM EST
Madness of HELOC Lending During the Bubble Years
Aided by the seemingly limitless desire of banks to lend money, homeowners opened an incredible number of HELOCs during the bubble years of 2004-2006.
Nowhere was the madness of HELOC borrowing more astounding than in California. During the two key years of 2004 and 2005, a total of 1.43 million HELOCs were originated in California just for the purchase of homes according to figures received from CoreLogic.
Wait a minute, you say. That’s more than the total number of homes sold in California during these years. Correct. A total of 1.25 million existing single family homes were purchased in California in 2004-2005 according to the California Association of Realtors.
A sadder situation described on the same blog is that of a 62 year old California homeowner who purchased his house in 1975 for $38,000. He refinanced “3-4 times over the years” mainly for “personal use - cars, etc.” The first lien is now $365,000. He opened the HELOC seven years ago and continually tapped into it. The outstanding balance on it had climbed to $265,000. Because the condo had plunged in value to only $350,000, this homeowner stopped making payments on the first mortgage four months earlier.
Sea of Troubles Facing “Too Big to Fail” Banks
In mid-April of this year, the website housingwatch.com as well as others posted a summary of the sobering report issued by the research firm, CreditSights. The report warned that HELOCs were the next big problem for the large “too big to fail” banks.
Let’s see why they might issue such a warning. Remember, there are currently $649 billion in HELOC loans outstanding. Three of the “too big to fail’ banks reported a total of $321 billion in outstanding HELOC loans on their balance sheet in the second quarter 2010 Call Reports which came out a few weeks ago.
http://www.realestatechannel.com/us-markets/residential-real-estate-1/housing-bubble-home-equity-lines-of-credit-heloc-second-mortage-lien-holders-home-foreclosures-bank-failures-the-new-york-times-keith-jurow-3122.php
“He refinanced “3-4 times over the years” mainly for “personal use - cars etc.”
3 times, ‘4′ times… ( who’s counting!? ) Who knew buying a condo for 38k was so lucrative?
No kidding. This guy has extracted almost $600k from the condo. The HELOC is seven years old and $265k, which is almost 38k a year he was extracting. Add in the refinancing of 324k over 35 years and you get another 9K and change a year.
This guy was giving himself a salary of 47k a year for the last seven years. Sounds like he lived through his heyday, and now must readjust to living on his wages. In an apartment. THE HORROR!
This 62-yr old guy essentially sold it to the bank for peak pricing; that makes him a victim how???
I shed no tears for him.
Smartest move he made in his life. The dumbest move was to squander it instead of stashing the money someplace untraceable before giving the condo back.
No tears from me. I’d be happy to flash him a middle finger, though.
The really smart move (assuming you aren’t going to play games with untraceable bank accounts) was to take out the money and use it to pay for an expensive college education for your kid. The money was used for a good that cannot be reposessed and the only other way to pay for it was for your child to take out a loan that is not dischargable, even in bankruptcy. Seriously, that was a great financial move.
As long as it went to a degree with a reasonable cost/benefit ratio. A doctorate in Parapsychology might not have been the best investment. That degree only works for Bill Murray.
Can’t they repossess the value of a college education by performing a lobotomy on the kid?
“The really smart move (assuming you aren’t going to play games with untraceable bank accounts) was to take out the money and use it to pay for an expensive college education for your kid. The money was used for a good that cannot be reposessed and the only other way to pay for it was for your child to take out a loan that is not dischargable, even in bankruptcy. Seriously, that was a great financial move.”
Right Polly, you have to think like a criminal or a…”
You can pretty much write this sentence
“Nowhere was the madness of . . . more astounding than in California.”
in every report on some silliness going on.
IAT
I’ll see you your California and raise you a Florida. And yes, you can pretty much put “anything” in the blank.
I’d love to lose this competition. Alas, although Florida had a head start, we blew by them decades ago. We’re the 5th, no, 6th, no, 7th largest economy in the world. And we’re stupid! Hard for any other state to top that combination and all the dysfunction it produces, no matter how hard they try. Unfortunately.
IAT
Palm Beach County total mortgage defaults nearing $20 billion
By Kimberly Miller Palm Beach Post Staff Writer
Posted: 10:32 p.m. Tuesday, Sept. 7, 2010
More than $18.8 billion in home loans have gone sour in Palm Beach County since 2007, a figure that tops Miami-Dade County and could reach $20 billion by the end of the year.
Loan default amounts for South Florida, including Broward County, were released Tuesday in a report by the Miami-based real estate consulting firm Condo Vultures.
The group compiled the data from clerk of courts offices by looking at initial foreclosure filings and the corresponding loan amounts.
The absolute number of loan defaults - loans with late payments due - is reported each quarter by the Mortgage Bankers Association. About 11 percent of Florida households with a mortgage had at least one past-due loan payment in the second quarter of 2010, according to a report last month by the Mortgage Bankers Association.
But Condo Vultures principal Peter Zalewski said his company’s report is the first to calculate the dollar amount of defaulted loans in South Florida.
In total, 251,082 initial foreclosure notices have been filed in South Florida since 2007. The amount of home loans tied to the filings is $63.6 billion, according to the report.
“People have been talking about how the foreclosure filings are so bad, but no one has tried to quantify it with a dollar amount,” Zalewski said. “This shows you the magnitude of the situation.”
http://www.palmbeachpost.com/money/real-estate/palm-beach-county-total-mortgage-defaults-nearing-20-902433.html
Protests planned for 9/11 at ground zero over the “ground zero mosque” which many find inappropriate have themselves been deemed inappropriate:
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/39042826/ns/us_news-life/
Would it be inappropriate to build a Shinto shrine near the USS Arizona in Pearl Harbor?
At least you wouldn’t have to worry about a convoy of pickup trucks arriving from Alabama to kick the place apart.
Correct me if I’m wrong, but ISTR that the USS Arizona memorial is in an area that’s maintained by the federal government. Hence, no Shinto shrines.
But I’d be willing to be that, in nearby Honolulu, there are more than a few such shrines.
IMO a very good article on the subject
There is indeed one, about 5 miles from Pearl Harbor.
Our mended relationship with the Japanese didn’t come easily though - it was a price of years of physical conflict (including nuclear weapons) and social conflict.
Could we achieve such mending with Islam? I’m not so sure. Maybe. In the Japanese case it required almost total capitulation on their part; essentially a renunciation of their imperialistic (inhumanely so) ways.
In the Japanese case it required almost total capitulation on their part; essentially a renunciation of their imperialistic (inhumanely so) ways.
Yes, the US demanded (and got) unconditional surrender from Japan. The subsequent occupation, though, was relatively benign. The actual terms imposed included:
1. The military is disbanded. Duh.
2. The emperor remains, but is not a god.
3. A constitutional democracy is set up.
4. Women get the vote.
5. Serfs/sharecroppers slaving for large landholders are assigned ownership of small plots of land.
The idea was to create a stable society with reasonable good will toward the US. The enlightened social policies actually worked; there was absolutely zero hostile action taken against occupying US troops in the war’s aftermath. It’s a remarkable story.
Looks like there’s a total of ten in the USA.. six are in Hawaii. There’s not a lot of info about when any of them were built.
At least one (in downtown Honolulu) was “Seized by the city at the outset of World War II..”
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Shinto_shrines_in_the_United_States
“Would it be inappropriate to build a Shinto shrine near the USS Arizona in Pearl Harbor?”
No, it would not be inappropriate.
well.. the question was purely rhetorical, but your answer is interesting none the less.
As was your question.
You’ll need to come up with something a little more thoughtful than Rush LintBall rhetoric.
Eddie, maybe you ask Budda.
Japanese Shinto covers most current life events, Budda covers most after life events.
Religion itself is pretty inappropriate. If they were selling ‘Big Bearded Guy in the Sky’s Health Tonic’ they’d get run out of town. Since they have no actual product, they get away with their shyster antics.
Since they have no actual product, they get away with their shyster antics.
But religion has a product. It’s a service industry. It’s like the rotary club, psychology, counseling, life-coaching, singles club, ethics and morals classes, a little bit of red cross, spirituality and a place for Bingo all rolled into one.
I stand by my assessment. “Because the invisible guy says it will be okay” does not count as psychology, counseling, or life-coaching. “Because the invisible guy says so” does not count as morals or ethics. That leaves Bingo and Singles. Sounds like Vegas wins hands down!
“Because the invisible guy says so” does not count as morals or ethics.
Of course what the invisible guy says counts as psychology, counseling and life coaching if what he says counsels, coaches and affects one’s psyche and soul.
Of course what the invisible guy says counts as morals and ethics if what he’s saying is moral and ethical.
Saying something is moral and ethical because it is moral and ethical is a circular argument. Fortune tellers, crystal healers, paranormalists, and may others provide the same services as any given ‘invisible guy’ you’d care to pick, but seem to be spurned by many followers of the various invisible gentlemen.
Bartenders have been known to provide all of the above services with a beer included. Seems like the best deal so far!
Saying something is moral and ethical because it is moral and ethical is a circular argument.
Kinda sorta but what I said was:
“what the invisible guy says counts as morals and ethics if what he’s saying is moral and ethical.”
How could it not?
Plus, we’re talking about a subject that includes the element of faith and faith does include some aspects of circular logic because faith is not based entirely or even substantially on scientific logic.
And the bartender is charging for the beer.
Bartenders have been known to provide all of the above services with a beer included. Seems like the best deal so far!
—————
Yes, bartenders are happy to listen to all your troubles while you pay $8 for a 50 cent beer. Don’t drink too many or talk to much though. They don’t have your back.
Seriously. The bartender has to tell the cops what you said. Your pastor doesn’t.
At least you got the beer. Tithing and sitting in a pew every week gets you zero beer.
All of the ‘good stuff’ that a chuch does can be done and by any community without mentioning the invisible dudes. I’d rather join a soccer league for my therapy than ask a priest how many hail marys I should say.
You are going to the wrong church then. The Catholics hand out free wine.
All of the ‘good stuff’ that a chuch does can be done and by any community without mentioning the invisible dudes.
They can do a lot but not all. You’re missing the spirituality and faith part. This is the part many like.
I’d rather join a soccer league for my therapy than ask a priest how many hail marys I should say.
While that is the stereotype, I can’t think of a priest today who would dole such counseling in the confessional.
If anything, a modern critique thrown at them is that these days they are too psychological and not very spiritual.
Since we know they weren’t spiritual, I wish they’d been a little more psychological in the heyday of child molestation. At least then they might’ve taken seriously the damage they were doing those kids, and put a stop to it.
IAT
I sold the last of my Chinese laser discs on ebay for $200 not bad since i got them for free
grey day in nyc:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OAyjDQhN-zk
Did you pay some on your CC balance with your gains?
* REAL ESTATE
* SEPTEMBER 8, 2010
Home Builders Sound Retreat on Land Deals
As Housing Sector Remains Weak, Some Firms Back Out of Contracts, Forfeiting Deposits; ‘Holy Cow! Our Sales Are Down’
By DAWN WOTAPKA
The weakening of the housing sector is having repercussions in the land-speculation market, which enjoyed a miniboom earlier this year when it appeared that the worst of the housing crisis was over.
With sales volume falling and home buyers retreating, home builders are re-examining land contracts, asking land sellers for lower prices or abandoning deals entirely. Land brokers said several of the nation’s builders, including D.R. Horton Inc. and M.D.C. Holdings Inc., have walked away from deals. In some cases, they forfeited the deposit: KB Home walked away from the option to purchase 90 lots, and a $500,000 deposit, in Roseville, Calif.
D.R. Horton and M.D.C. didn’t respond to requests for comment.
This summer, builder Standard Pacific Corp. signed a letter of intent to buy an option on 451 ready-to-build lots in the Inland Empire, a Southern California market where builders have ramped up construction in recent months. But in August, Standard Pacific decided to pass on the deal.
“The market is definitely doing worse now than at the beginning of the year,” said Standard Pacific Chief Executive Ken Campbell. “It’s a weaker home-sale environment than people had expected, which means land is less valuable.”
…
“which enjoyed a miniboom earlier this year”
Right, Re-Load the game! These guys just won’t give up.
Especially since they were getting ready to buy lots in the FRIGGIN INLAND EMPIRE. You know, the place with 2 houses for every person (including the kids). They need more houses like like a guy drowning in a beer vat needs a gin and tonic.
like like a guy drowning in a beer vat needs a gin and tonic.
Hey, perhaps he doesn’t like beer, but wants to tie one on before he goes?
A choosy drinker to the last. But he’s in for his final pickling!
Walking away from an option in Roseville is even more telling.
Let’s see, 90 lots at 1/6 acre each is 15 acres. That’s over $33K per acre just for the OPTION.
Procrastination on Foreclosures, Now ‘Blatant,’ May Backfire
American Banker
Friday, August 27, 2010
By Jeff Horwitz and Kate Berry
Ever since the housing collapse began, market seers have warned of a coming wave of foreclosures that would make the already heightened activity look like a trickle.
The dam would break when moratoriums ended, teaser rates expired, modifications failed and banks finally trained the army of specialists needed to process the volume.
But the flood hasn’t happened. The simple reason is that servicers are not initiating or processing foreclosures at the pace they could be
“The math doesn’t bode well for what is ultimately going to occur on the real estate market,” said Herb Blecher, a vice president at LPS. “You start asking yourself the question when you look at these numbers whether we are fixing the problem or delaying the inevitable.”
http://www.americanbanker.com/issues/175_165/foreclosures-modifications-california-1024663-1.html - -
Servicers make money by servicing loans. If they forclose, the income stream ends. Why do we expect them to do anything other than procrastinate?
Cue combo in 4…3…2…
“Procrastination”
Is it really just ‘procrastination’ we are talking about, or is top-down coordination involved somehow? I would think it would be in an individual lender’s interest to get out from under a massive weight of REO inventory before the collective weight of shadow inventory further sinks home prices.
Only if you think that you will survive the hit. The best time to step off a sinking ship is just a moment before the mast goes down.
“The best time to step off a sinking ship is just a moment before the mast goes down.”
I’m not that much of a gambler. I prefer to step off a sinking ship long before the moment it sinks, as a failure of timing could have tragic consequences.
If you are standing ready on deck, it is best to wait. If you are locked below, you’re screwed.
You don’t want to be nearby when the bulk of the ship goes underwater as it creates suction than can pull lone (loan?) swimmers down with it. Get off early and get away.
Mythbusters tested that, and unless the ship sinks immedately like a rock, you can be right near it as it slides underneath without too much distress, beyond the fact that your boat just sank.
“If you are standing ready on deck, it is best to wait. If you are locked below, you’re screwed.”
What if your loan is already underwater before the ship sinks?
Pretend you went down with the ship.
“What if your loan is already underwater before the ship sinks?”
It depends if you are in recourse or non-recourse waters.
The lender and the servicer are not the same people.
Me thinks they were holding onto the fantasy that we were just having a correction, the government would come out with some kind of plan to support house prices, and they would minimize their losses, if they could hold off for a while.
Then reality set in………
I see bulldozers in our future. Lots and lots of bulldozers.
Perhaps hyperbolic, but not so much, I fear. It’s starting now in places like Detroit, with homes that are beyond repair. However my prediction is over time “beyond repair” will encompass an ever-growing number of homes around the country - eventually including ones that were actually completed but have never even been lived in.
ISTR Ben describing developments being bulldozed in TX during the 1980s. (And Ben, would those have been the developments along I-30 that were financed by Empire Savings, which was one of the baddest of the bad-boy S&Ls?)
Yes. The great PBS piece The Ascent of Money included a bit with some of the bare foundations as the physical setting. Don’t remember if they had been bulldozed or were just incomplete (or both).
“I see bulldozers in our future.”
That would be a logical consequence of current efforts to allow those holding REO to avoid selling it. If you keep property off the market long enough without properly maintaining it, it becomes dilapidated beyond the point where it is economically viable to salvage.
Soon banks will be featured on that TV show “Hoarders” and the banks will be forced to throw out piles of dilapidated houses.
I wonder, is a bulldozer leveling a house adequate reason to write down the value of the loan against it?
You know they’d be screaming “That house is worth 800k!” while a crew member leans against a wall causing the whole house to fall over.
That is one scarey television show.
They had a marathon on, and two episodes of it made me and my wife want to start throwing crap out ASAP. Even stuff we DO use.
true that. A decade ago we all worried about becoming bag ladies, now we worry about being buried by all our stuff. The last couple weeks we’ve been doing a total home purge, what we don’t give away we sell on craig’s list.
Just to chime in here, the Banks REO Depts have hired “Property Preservation Specialists” to take care of the inventory. They have been hiring in large rooms, taking on 25 or more employees at a time. Since I went to ICSC/U-San Diego Mgmt School for such (in my youth), I’ve been in the room.
The amt of $ the banks are spending to keep up the properties is enormous. Why not just let some out?
Employee costs vs. write offs.
One bank I applied to had a 500 properties notation in their ad. I managed a sizable Shopping Center and a Mixed Use Center (Retail and Condos) and that kept me hopping 6.5 days a week. I think the bank is dreaming. That’s beyond slave. Even just pushing paper, 500 is absurd.
So, I should put a “buy” on Caterpillar stock?
No, they’ll be getting repo’d ‘dozers on the cheap instead of buying new. They pulled forward 10 years of construction equipment demand with the bubble.
Cat’s USA business and workers will be hurting, but CAT might not be.
This is why multi-nationals don’t give a darn about American patriotism. If the almighty dollar is their king and regulations and fair trade practices don’t make them even be a little patriotic, why would they?
Caterpillar Expands in Brazil; Announces Location of New Facility and Investment in Piracicaba Operations
Additional facility will increase manufacturing capacity for backhoes and wheel loaders in Latin America and allow for capacity expansion for other products made in Brazil
PEORIA, Ill., Sept. 1 /PRNewswire-FirstCall/ — Building on its 50-plus-year history in Brazil and capitalizing on the expected growth in Latin America, Caterpillar Inc. (NYSE:CAT - News) is announcing today the expansion of its manufacturing operations in Brazil. The company has acquired an existing industrial facility in Brazil, located in Campo Largo, Parana State, that after upgrading will cover 50,000 square meters
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Caterpillar-Expands-in-Brazil-prnews-1491395460.html?x=0&.v=1
$22 bn down the REIC rat hole, with no societal benefits to show for it!
WSJ Blogs
Developments
Real estate news and analysis from The Wall Street Journal
* Home Buyer Tax Credit Price Tag: $22 Billion
* September 7, 2010, 3:57 PM ET
Housing Inventories Rise for Eighth Straight Month
By Nick Timiraos
See housing inventory data and price cut information for 21 metro areas.
Housing inventories rose in many U.S. cities for the eighth straight month in August in a sign of the continued headwinds facing a soft housing market.
The number of available homes for sale in 26 major metropolitan areas at the end of August increased 0.4% from one month earlier, according to figures compiled by ZipRealty Inc., a real-estate brokerage firm based in Emeryville, Calif. The figures include all single-family homes, condominiums and townhouses listed on local multiple-listing services in markets where the firm operates. (See the full data).
Inventories traditionally rise modestly in August. Zelman & Associates, a research firm, says listings have typically risen by 2% in August over the past 28 years.
The less-than-average gain in inventories is troubling, nonetheless, because demand has fallen sharply since a tax credit to spur sales expired earlier this year. At the current pace, it would take 12.5 months to clear the backlog of unsold homes, according to the National Association of Realtors. A healthy market typically a six-month supply of homes. Inventories nationally remain at their highest levels since November 2008, according to Zelman data.
The August inventory in the 26 markets tracked by ZipRealty showed a 10.6% year-over-year increase in the number of unsold homes listed for sale. A number of cities, including Houston, Philadelphia, and Orange County, Calif., remain at 18 month highs. “It’s across the country where you’re seeing really big inventory levels,” says Pat Lashinsky, chief executive of ZipRealty.
The biggest gains in inventory continue to come from overheated Western markets where bidding wars on foreclosures pushed the housing supply down to very low levels one year ago. Las Vegas saw inventory rise by 9.3% from July, while listings were up by 4.6% in Phoenix and 3.8% in San Diego.
Compared to one year ago, inventories are up by 59% in San Diego, 43% in Orange County, Calif., and 25% in Los Angeles.
One big problem facing the market are the number of home sellers who can’t lower their prices any further without selling their home for less than they owe. Those sellers are often unwilling to reduce prices. Buyers, meanwhile, think prices are going to drop and interest rates aren’t going to rise soon, leaving them little incentive to make a deal now. Sellers and buyers “are waiting for the other one to make a move, and neither one is,” says Mr. Lashinsky.
…
One big problem facing the market are the number of home sellers who can’t lower their prices any further without selling their home for less than they owe. Those sellers are often unwilling to reduce prices. Buyers, meanwhile, think prices are going to drop and interest rates aren’t going to rise soon, leaving them little incentive to make a deal now. Sellers and buyers “are waiting for the other one to make a move, and neither one is,” says Mr. Lashinsky.
Methinks that this standoff will be resolved by sellers letting their houses go back to the bank. I’ve seen it happen right in this nabe. Scenario goes like this:
Homeowner attempts to sell, fails to do so, and then goes the jingle mail route.
Overheard a conversation today…..
Guy is underwater by about $300K in Scottsdale. He’s GTFOOD. No hesitation, or guilt about it. Just another business decision.
It’s getting to the point where those who choose to fulfill their obligations are going to look like suckers. As if that wasn’t the case already.
“Screw everyone else, just take care of #1″ is the new normal.
New Home Sales Hit Record Low, Impacting Factory Orders
02:03 pm
August 25, 2010
…
It’s probably safe to assume that few builders are building “spec” homes these days as was true during the height of the bubble where the expectation of builders seemed to be “If you build it, they will buy.”
According to the National Association of Home Builders, in 2006 before the bubble burst, builders constructed 1.4 million single family homes. Three years later in 2009, they built only 445,000.
And the July new-homes data released Wednesday makes that 2009 figure look relatively good by comparison, with July sales coming in at an annual rate of 276,000, the lowest rate on record.
Which helps to partly explain why durable goods were lousy in July as well. With so few new houses being built, the demands for, building supplies, appliances like refrigerators, washers and driers and the equipment used to make them is down.
NY Daily News by SE Cupp
After Barack Obama, a dose of Hillary Clinton? Many moderates would support the secretary of state
Guess the likely 2012 presidential field. “But for my friends - three thirtysomething left-of-center moderates who voted for Obama in 2008 - only one name would make them consider pulling the lever for someone else: Hillary Clinton.”
Oh man, don’t think she’s not thinking about it and manuevering in the background to make it happen. Yrs ago I predicted that she would be the first woman President [because she would never give up trying] and now it seems that fate might bring her another opportunity.
IMO Mitt Romney vs Hillary would be an awesome contest.
A coworker just told me about a new bumper-sticker slogan: “Change it back.”
I give up. You just can’t fight a slogan like that. Refuting that would require at least a sentence (”change it back to when the credit card wasn’t worn out yet”?) and probably several paragraphs, said to people who are too lazy to think about it and don’t want to hear it anyway.
Well, I’ll always have the farmer’s market…
A coworker just told me about a new bumper-sticker slogan: “Change it back.”
Ah yes, a return to the days of double digit annual appreciation and free flowing HELOC money with a Beamer or an Escalade in every driveway.
The sad thing is that is what the unwashed really want.
You can’t reason with a person who’s ignorance is exceeded only by their certainty.
Well, I’ll always have the farmer’s market…
I hope so….
Oregon’s small-scale farms worry about sweeping food safety bill
http://www.oregonlive.com/news/index.ssf/2010/05/oregons_small-scale_farms_worr.html
The opening of farmers markets keeps small Oregon growers busy this time of year, picking, packing and selling their produce.
But rather than being focused on their fields, many are watching Washington, D.C., where they fear their fate could be sealed by a food safety bill.
The Food Safety Modernization Act before the U.S. Senate would bolster the Food and Drug Administration and tighten regulations, overhauling a system that dates to 1906.
There’s been virtually no outcry from large producers over the bill. But a number of small farmers in Oregon — and elsewhere — say it would add an unfair burden, putting many of them out of business.
Greater food safety in farmer’s markets? Well, permit me to step into this discussion and say that this wouldn’t be a bad thing.
Why? Personal experience. Friend o’ mine used to sell prickly pear cactus products at a local farmer’s market.
And, if not processed correctly, prickly pear cactus jams, jellies, and juice concentrates can give you a nice case of botulism. Which can be fatal.
Any-hoo, my friend has always been careful about her processing procedures. And she’s one of the few health food purveyors I’ve known who has encouraged research on — and testing of — the claims made on her products. No glowing testimonials or anecdotes for her. She wants scientific proof.
Well, at the farmer’s market, another prickly pear products seller moved in, and my friend had suspicions about their quality control. So, she reported them to our local board of health.
ISTR that her suspicions were confirmed by the board, but that didn’t stop the farmer’s market management from booting her out of the market.
Hard to tell what to make of that story, since the actual requirements of the bill aren’t well explained- we only hear the side of a few angry farmers. Sounds kind of like the farmers don’t want such a complete record of their sales more for tax reasons (ie their avoidance). Is a list of who you sell to really so onerous? (They’re never clear how that would work at the farmer’s market level, but one assumes they wouldn’t have to list every purchaser there any more than a grocery store would.)
That could be. And you know, I gotta say, I’ve pretty much shunned farmer’s markets here in Portland. The local grocery sells, for example, a small box o’ tomatoes for $3.99. A recent stop at a farmer’s market had them for at least that amount with one lady selling them for $4.99. If your premise is correct, it makes them even more lame.
The idea of the farmer’s market has jumped the shark, as it now seems like you are paying for the privilege to be there and tell your friends how hip you are in your shopping choice.
I’m considering the co-op route, where you pay a monthly fee and the farmers deliver a box o’ veggies to a local drop off.
sleepless,
Indeed. The wife and I noticed that while it used to be a bargain, those days are gone. The other thing that got to me was here by Salem, we use the city’s property for them to set up shop.
Given we’re the home of the Oregon Garden we get that whole public/private thing mixed up?
The agricultural equivalent of Dodd-Frank.
“IMO Mitt Romney vs Hillary would be an awesome contest.”
How about Palin versus Hillary: Go for broke on the gender war!
C-Span cat fight
The lesser of two Weevils.
You’re scaring me.
****************************
“Palin versus Hillary”
I am scaring me, too. But simple honesty is honestly the best I have to offer…
Condi vs. Hillary. In fact Dick Morris even wrote a book with that title a few years back.
Condi/Gingrich 2012! Maybe it’s time to get the bumper sticker printed up….
Dennis,
That would be even better.
Where would all the special interests fall? Most of the liberals would go with Hillary but a strong % of the blacks would stay with Condi. Wow! Talk about a seismic shift.
Oh Lord, please make it happen.
Lip
Condi/Gingrich 2012
Well, there ya go again. Another potential consideration paired w/a no way in hell candidate (Gingrich). Can’t the Republicans put together a ticket that a huge swath of America doesn’t already hate? Hint: it might require getting away from the long entreched Washington insiders.
No suspense. A few SNL skits later and the contest would be decided.
How about Palin versus Hillary
No, no ,no. Just slap me. I mean I want it. Just slap me. Keep slapping. Harder. Give me the “belt.”
No, please no. I’m sick of the Clinton’s and their little princess Chelsea. I’m DONE.
I started out sick of Sarah Palin.
NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO.
Did I mention that I would rather not? I didn’t? Ok.
NO!
Roidy
Agree on both counts.
I’ve been saying she would run against him again ever since he won. Her slogan will be “yes…I am a democrat…but I am an American first!”
Some dentist is already paying for Hillary 2012 ads on television.
http://news.yahoo.com/s/atlantic/20100903/cm_atlantic/bloggersderidedentistfundedhillary2012campaignad4910
Bumper sticker…..
“Hillary - Born in the USA!”
DennisN,
LOL! I can see it now.
There’s a great photoshop replacing Jimi Hendrix w/ BO and they’ve re-titled the album “Taxes: Bold As Love” after he keeps quoting Jimi.
Hey.., that ain’t to cool man.
I figured she could go for the “birther” vote with that sticker.
Present Vs. Future: Will The Government Let The Housing Market Crash?
http://rejournalonline.com/present-vs-future-wil-the-government-let-the-housing-market-crash/852105/
WillCan The GovernmentLetPrevent The Housing Market Crash?Fixed it.
Nope! But they can make it messy and drawn out. So instead of a clean execution, you get torture until death.
I dunno, but when will the MSM ever stop ascribing omnipotent powers to bureaucrats?
They won’t. Because the MSM wishes bureaucrats had omnipotent power.
Much of the MSM, and I suspect at least a few posters here, very much agree with Woody Allen.
For exeter
Commision based real estate agents don’t qualify for unemployment insurance.
http://www.ncsl.org/?tabid=13338
Garbage in, garbage out.
Right, because past experience has shown that if we DO give them UE ( they will leverage it into “real estate deals” and ‘qualify’ for more loans! ) Sheesh…
Actually They DO qualify if they paid into the state unemployment fund quarterly based on their own salary.
But most expect their employer to pay…and who is your employer…..ah YOU????
aNYCdj,
Ha! I….’m “in real estate” you doofus. Don’t you know that means? I live or die by the deal. I read a book about it from Donald Trump or something.
Yeah, they’ll just get a job at Home Deepooh and then collect after the first wave. What are Chinese laser disks any way?
12″ laser discs that were made before the 5″ DVD’s…..
They used them for movies but the main use was karaoke, you could get 20+ songs on one side of a disc 1 hour…..so it make it easy to keep thing moving along, and much better resolution then videotape or vcd.
also they have mandarin and Cantonese subtitles…but mine were just movies martial arts action comedy …and a few of those…
What are Chinese laser disks any way?
aNYCdj,
That’s what I thought… you were talking about! A friend bought one when I was stationed overseas and it was utterly fantastic. The stop action feature was to die for. Such clarity.
Btw, I have every movie Jackie Chan ever made, a good many w/ all kinds of subtitles below. Such fun.
Yes the stop action. it had to do with they way it was recorded.
CAV (Constant Angular Velocity) or Standard Play discs supported several unique features such as freeze frame, variable slow motion and reverse. CAV discs were spun at a constant rotational speed during playback, with one video frame read per revolution and in this mode, 54,000 individual frames or 30 minutes of audio/video could be stored on a single side of a CAV disc
Condo dweller alert: Beware the pickpockets living in your ‘hood.
Amy Hoak’s Home Economics
Sept. 8, 2010, 12:01 a.m. EDT
Financial crisis hits condo associations
As more homeowners fall behind on dues, those who are able to pay suffer
By Amy Hoak, MarketWatch
CHICAGO (MarketWatch) — People often buy a condo unit partly because they don’t need to worry about cutting the lawn or fixing the roof — their condo association takes care of maintenance and repairs for them, with those services paid through homeowner assessments each month. At least, that’s the way it’s supposed to work.
Now the economic downturn is hitting Americans hard — and, in turn, putting stress on their condo associations. When homeowners lose their jobs and can’t pay dues, or investors decide to walk away from their rentals, condo associations suffer.
That, in turn, affects everyone in the development, not just homeowners in financial straits.
“When someone doesn’t pay assessments of the community, they’re picking the pockets of every one of their neighbors,” said Andrew Fortin, vice president of government and public affairs for the Community Associations Institute.
…
..those who are able to pay suffer..
They damn well should pay and support the HOA. They are “rich” and wealthy and privileged and elite compared to their poor neighbors.
I am forever grateful to our landlord for paying our HOA dues out of our rent check.
I’m glad there is no HOA at all where we live.
This is why many communities have a secondary check to “ensure” the buyer has enough income / resources etc to really live in the community. I believe this practice is getting more common, although how legal it is I don’t know, since it most likely ends up profiling…
“When someone doesn’t pay assessments of the community, they’re picking the pockets of every one of their neighbors,” said Andrew Fortin, vice president of government and public affairs for the Community Associations Institute.
Like when someone doesn’t pay taxes to the government are they picking the pockets of the ones who do?
+1E6 to Cactus.
Like I’ve said before, watching what happened to condo owners in the 90s recession in Massachusetts is why I’ll never own a condo. What a freakin’ nightmare. One Oxford educated co-worker felt trapped while she watched the once nice condo community deteriorate around her when a lien was put on the associaion for non-payment of new roofing. I’m quite sure she never planned on that reality being part of her future.
Palmetto, I am by no means a Rick Scott for gov. fan, but have you seen his latest ad? He says, “how can politicians help the housing market? They can’t!”
That is the first line out of any pols mouth in a long time that made me smile.
Check it out:
http://www.youtube.com/user/floridagop?v=AJMkPQzayNc&feature=pyv&ad=5808858058&kw=rick%20scott#p/a/u/0/AJMkPQzayNc\
Yep, saw that, Red Beach. I rather like that Rick Scott has injected himself into Florida politics. It makes for some interesting dynamics. God knows we could use a little entertainment here. Scott kicked the Republican mafia in arse, I enjoyed that.
This politico also asserted that the government can create jobs by reducing taxes. Obviously the government creates nothing without first destroying something.
Said politico should have asserted:
“If the government stops stealing wealth from the people and their businesses then the people will be able to afford to hire more employees.”
But why would they? Anecdotally, the problem that most companies have is a lack of demand. Many of ‘em have little use for more employees, so any savings go either to the owners or to reducing prices.
Irish Nationwide Now Engaged In “Micro-Quantitative Easing” As It Issues Bonds To Itself To Repay Interest
European Central Bank Quantitative Easing Sovereign CDS
A new report in the Irish Times discusses how Irish Nationwide, where incidentally sovereign CDS spreads just hit a fresh all time wide record north of 400 bps, discusses how the insolvent bank, in a supreme example of just how prevalent ponziness has become in the current Central Bank subsidized environment, is now issuing bonds… to itself. In a circular issuance scheme that would make the Greek finance minister blush with envy, “Irish Nationwide has issued €4 billion of Government-guaranteed bonds effectively to itself. It can use the bonds to draw €4 billion in funding from the European Central to help tide it over a key refinancing period later this month.” At its core, the scheme is nothing new, having been used repeatedly by Europe’s most bankrupt countries, although the small scale in this case, and the blatant inability to even cover up the circularity has many worried that if the ECB needs to step in for such “modest” amounts to preserve bank solvency, it is all pretty much just a matter of time before it is game over for Ireland’s banks. And elsewhere, confirming that defaults are imminent, the CFO of Anglo-Irish has just said it would be a disaster to default on its bonds. He is, of course, absolutely correct.
Tyler Durden
That bank owns 22% (controlling interest) in M&T bank here in the Northeast. Do clients at that institution have any cause for concern? I see Santander has already shown interest.
For those of you tracking the MLS in your area, are you seeing more homes come on the market? If so, are sellers getting more real?
I noticed in the last 5 days, an uptick in listings at a more realistic price (although not to my liking yet), in my target area. I was curious as to others experience. Maybe all the let the market crash talk is jaring sellers from their concussion.
“For those of you tracking the MLS in your area, are you seeing more homes come on the market? If so, are sellers getting more real?”
It’s been such a whiplash summer as far as prices in my market. The graphs are demoralizing to anyone looking for a deal. Prices really shot back up this spring as the low inventories w/tax incentives got buyers in a bid up mood. That only ended in July w/a 45% drop in sales but some of that drop is because there’s nothing to look at. Current sellers who didn’t move the property when there was gov help seem to be clinging to the spring’s positive numbers. They don’t believe taking the tax credit out of the picture changes anything for them. After all you only need a single greater fool to become free at your price.
There is only a trickle of new inventory coming on the MLS now. But here’s something interesting: For a while it seemed like no one was into FSBO like the numbers we saw in 2007/8. All of a sudden in the last few weeks there’s been an explosion in FSBO. They are new listings I haven’t seen on and I’ve watched like a hawk since 2006. I can’t say I understand the reasons behind it except maybe it’s shadow inventory where owners might have received notification that the clock is now ticking.
I’m seeing lots and I mean lots of price stubbornness unless they are involved in a corporate buyout/job transfer. It’s not that I’m seeing no price reductions. It’s just the ones I am seeing are often such stingy moves I wonder why they bother. If the price reductions are within a low ball range why do they think that little amount will move people off the couch? I often get the idea some of these sellers have totally tuned out all the double dip talk.
Last year listings malingered and withered on the vine. They sold at a discount to asking prices after several reductions. This year they seem to be moving along in about a month, and the price is back up. We’re seeing houses in our neighborhood list and sell for 20% more than what we paid.
However, the nearby neighborhood on the other side of the tracks seems to still be malingering a bit, and prices did not bounce back up from the ‘lows’. The houses are selling more easily, but the listing prices are in line with last year’s prices.
Lots more homes @ 250k in Flag. No such thing a year ago. Zillow though must be sniffing glue - a few homes I’ve benchmarked have “risen” $21,500 in the last 30 days, to ZIndex prices $20 per sq ft above the median.
flg az
I’ve noticed a small price increase on those “Zindex” (kudos) too, in my target area in So Ca.
BTW,I just learned that CoreLogic (R E Analytics) also has a foreclosure tracking database like RealtyTrac.
Not here (In Loveland), still dropping, I’d say to 2000-2001 levels.
In the midnight hour, he cried more, more, more
With a rebel yell, he cried more, more, more
More, more, more
Another $208 million in federal dollars to bail out Florida neighborhoods
By Kimberly Miller Palm Beach Post Staff Writer
Posted: 11:00 a.m. Wednesday, Sept. 8, 2010
Florida is receiving another $208.4 million in federal aid to help stabilize neighborhoods hardest hit by the foreclosure crisis.
The money, announced this morning by U.S. Housing and Urban Development Deputy Secretary Ron Sims, is part of $1 billion allocated nationally in a third round of Neighborhood Stabilization funding.
Florida’s share is the highest of all the states, followed by California, which is receiving $149.3 million.
The money can be used to buy land and property, demolish or rehabilitate abandoned properties, and offer down payment and closing cost assistance to low- to moderate-income home buyers.
“We want to make sure people can move back into good neighborhoods,” Sims said. “Neighborhoods where we can have good sidewalks and parks and programs.”
In determining how the money would be distributed, the Obama Administration looked at factors including the number and percent of home foreclosures, percent of homes financed by sub prime mortgages, and the number and percent of homes with late loan payments.
Several local governments received part of Florida’s stipend.
Boynton Beach will receive $1.1 million, Palm Beach County is getting $11.2 million, and West Palm Beach will receive $2.1 million
The money can be used to buy land and property, demolish or rehabilitate abandoned properties, and offer down payment and closing cost assistance to low- to moderate-income home buyers.
Here we go again. Pushing homeownership on people who can ill afford it.
$1 billion… allocated nationally.
That’s almost funny.
“$1 billion… allocated nationally.”
“That’s almost funny.”
$1 billion allocated nationally in a third round of Neighborhood Stabilization funding.
ok.. billions of dollars is not exactly chump change, but it won’t even be noticed if applied to the housing market.
Does government really want to help the people in troubled neighborhoods? Got $3 billion to blow off?
Find 30,000 struggling small businesses and lend them $100,000 each. Not just any businesses.. pick the ones who’s workforce comes from and which provides basic necessities to that local community.
The objective should be to put some life into neighborhood economies. Mortgage payments don’t stay and circulate in the local community.
Find 30,000 struggling small businesses and lend them $100,000 each. Not just any businesses.. pick the ones who’s workforce comes from and which provides basic necessities to that local community.
The objective should be to put some life into neighborhood economies. Mortgage payments don’t stay and circulate in the local community.
Good idea.
Another $208 million in federal dollars to bail out Florida neighborhoods…..Boynton Beach will receive $1.1 million, Palm Beach County is getting $11.2 million, and West Palm Beach will receive $2.1 million
It’s like putting a band-aid on a pig.
or something..
SEPTEMBER 4, 2010.Government to Deploy Broader Mortgage Aid
NICK TIMIRAOS
The Obama administration on Tuesday will launch its most ambitious effort at reducing mortgage balances for homeowners who owe more than their homes are worth.
Officials say between 500,000 and 1.5 million so-called underwater loans could be modified through the program,
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB100... - 172k
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704323704575461920164400014.html - 170k
I just heard Detroit’s housing market is on fire!
I was timing how long that comment would take to surface.
But Colorado’s market is all smoke and mirrors!
Ok you HBB - get out there and get cracking!!!
—————
Housing Meltdown - Grassroots effort leads to attorney general probe
Daily Business Review | 9/7/2010 | Paola Iuspa-Abbott
Lisa Epstein, an unemployed oncology nurse, and Michael Redman, a former online salesman for Toyota, never planned to be on the front line of the foreclosure crisis.
But that happened when they independently mounted campaigns to challenge a system they say is stacked against consumers and where courts are more focused on moving cases than dispensing justice.
For nearly a year, Epstein, 44, and Redman, 35, have spent countless hours in South Florida courthouses scrutinizing foreclosure documents filed by lenders’ lawyers.
They have sent copies of filings they consider improper — including potentially fabricated documents and many with signatures they believe are forged — to the Florida attorney general, the FBI, Florida legislators, the U.S. attorney, the Florida Bar and other agencies urging probes of the law firms that filed them.
They say their efforts have paid off.
Last month, Florida Attorney General Bill McCollum began investigating whether Florida’s largest foreclosure law firms had submitted false affidavits and other documents in order to obtain final judgments against property owners whose properties were in foreclosure.
Among the firms McCollum is looking into are the Law Offices of David J. Stern in Plantation; the Law Offices of Marshall C. Watson in Fort Lauderdale; and Shapiro & Fishman, with offices in Boca Raton and Tampa. In May, McCollum’s office launched a probe into the Florida Default Law Group in Tampa.
The law firms have denied any wrongdoing.
2banana,
Good for you. This is where the effort and focus really ‘ought’ to be. I love piling on the Nat’l HC debate etc. as much as the next bubble-blogger but when it comes to something that actually bears fruit ( we’re just “too busy” for all ‘that’ stuff? )
And FL is as good a place to start as any. Is there no END to this bs!?
Lisa Epstein, an unemployed oncology nurse
Now there’s a phrase you don’t see every day. Makes me wonder what her story is.
Stay the course with housing
Negative sales reports should not fuel return to bad policy
http://www.fairfaxtimes.com/cms/story.php?id=2101
Even the most optimistic among us have struggled to find a silver lining in the housing market’s deep and dark three-year cloud. Since spring 2007, virtually every homeowner in Fairfax County has seen their house value drop by at least 20 percent, with most of those folks experiencing dips closer to 35 or 40 percent.
Rather than paint the current picture as hopeless, however, perhaps we have finally witnessed the most critical step in the recovery process. We are just beginning to see the corrective action some had hoped for back in 2008 — t
By now, we should all understand that government intervention is not the solution to all that ails us. We certainly do not need more federal tax credits. We also do not need to see lenders being pressured to loosen standards so people who cannot qualify for a 2003 Honda Accord somehow end up with a 6,000-square-foot McMansion in Chantilly.
Our housing problems are deep and will take years to sort through, but dumping more propane on this five-alarm fire is not the way to go.
Should we let the housing market implode?
http://articles.moneycentral.msn.com/Banking/HomeFinancing/article.aspx?post=1801389
The Internet is smoking with discussion about whether to end all government interventions and let nature take its course.
Posted by Karen Datko on Tuesday, September 7, 2010 1:42 PM
After trying every stimulus and lever known to economists to rescue the housing market — and failing — the country should just let go and allow housing prices to fall as far as they will.
That’s what a handful of housing and economic experts told The New York Times in a Sunday article, “Housing woes bring a new cry: Let the market fall.” The Internet is now smoking with discussion about it.
That’s what a handful of housing and economic experts told The New York Times in a Sunday article, “Housing woes bring a new cry: Let the market fall.” The Internet is now smoking with discussion about it.
Hmmmm, is that why I’ve been smelling smoke around here?
I don’t know. I smelled it, too. I thought it was Ben Bernanke and Lil’ Timmy lighting up AGAIN!
Roidy
Few buy into career as Realtor
http://www.pressofatlanticcity.com/business/press/real_estate/
Peggy Silverman colored her experience with a slightly less rosy brush since she got her real estate license in 2008, when the federal government was funneling billions of dollars into the economy to stem a tide of foreclosures and layoffs.
“It’s been a nightmare,” said Galloway Township native who is now an agent for Prudential Diversified Realty & Associates in Smithville, Galloway Township.
Silverman, 61, was a cocktail waitress for 28 years in Atlantic City and needed a change. She had always been friendly and had a keen interest in interior design, so she thought selling homes would be a good fit.
She knew the market was bad, but had no idea how bad until she got in the midst of it.
“The market has gone straight down like an airplane nosediving,” she said. She now looks at the paper daily, looking to get a second career in the health care industry.
She currently lives in a senior community in Smithville. There she saw people 55 years and older unable to move in because younger people could not get the loans to buy the seniors’ homes elsewhere.
She said rentals seem like they are booming, but some days the phones never ring from people looking to buy a home.
After being one of the first waitresses at Bally’s Atlantic City, and now a real estate agent for about two years, she hopes she can find a second job that’s a little bit more resistant to a bad economy.
“I got to pay my mortgage. I got to eat, and real estate has almost come to a standstill,” she said. “And that’s a known fact.”
Everybody to the health care industry…stat!
Or the “Wind Turbine” industry
See the comment above re the “unemployed oncology nurse”.
1. Yesterday’s HBB story about used car prices rising. I’m seeing more people dumping that second and third car. Several people I know bought, but not from dealers, private owners and got great deals (SUV’s fully loaded).
2. More commercial space vacant every week. Those shops in business here selling cheaper merchandise. Jewelers selling low end stuff.
3. People wanting to buy junk silver and gold for a premium.
4. At family outings family are now talking about people who are not paying mortgages and some are thinking of doing the same.
5. Small business owners talking about just trying to make it through the year.
6. Property values now dropping in some areas to under $250/sq.ft.
I just don’t see what the MSM seems to report.
pampers.
Has anyone else heard about and Australian housing market downturn?
One reader comment to this article: This is the first article I have seen which is close to the truth.
Real estate golden goose takes flight September 5, 2010
http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/queensland/queensland-property/real-estate-golden-goose-takes-flight-20100904-14vg1.html
Queensland real estate agents are struggling to make ends meet in the current property climate, slashing staff, costs and even closing their doors for good.
“Anecdotally, I can tell you that there are agents laying off staff, merging their businesses and in some cases, having to liquidate,” he said.
“There is certainly a lot of pressure on agents at the moment because for the first time in a long time, we’re seeing more sellers than buyers.”
“August was our worst month ever. And the past couple of months, well, they’ve been very similar to 1987 and 1988.”
Home sales stalled? Auction that house!
9/7/10
http://www.csmonitor.com/Business/2010/0907/Home-sales-stalled-Auction-that-house
Home sales may be headed lower. So sellers and even real estate agents are turning to auctions instead. Are home sales auctions for you?
With her mother’s nursing-home bills mounting, the allure of selling the house quickly and “as is” was too good to let pass. The auctioneer advertised the event, held three open houses, and last October the 1830s Federal-style house on one acre went on the block.
Bidding started at $200,000, dropped to $150,000, and then rose to a final sale price of $225,000. It was over in 20 minutes. By December, the family had a check in hand. “I honestly believe the price that was got at auction that day was what that house was worth and what the market was willing to pay for it when we needed to sell it,” Ms. Seacord says.
Weary of watching their homes languish under “For Sale” signs in a sluggish market, homeowners increasingly are turning to auctions as a viable alternative. Residential real estate has been one of the fastest-growing segments of the auctioning industry.
Weary of watching their homes languish under “For Sale” signs in a sluggish market, homeowners increasingly are turning to auctions as a viable alternative. Residential real estate has been one of the fastest-growing segments of the auctioning industry.
There’s been quite a flurry of foreclosed house auctions here in Tucson. And, for some strange reason, those auctions keep getting rescheduled.
Something tells me that the auctioneers just aren’t getting those wishing prices.
Those wacky Canadians…Maybe they think their homes will stay expensive because when you buy a Canadian home you get “free” lifetime healthcare…
Housing: Bubble or no bubble?
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/economy/housing-bubble-or-no-bubble/article1699666/
The housing market is taking a breather, but it’s not in free fall: Conference Board
As Canada’s housing market softens, the question for many homeowners is how much prices might decline.
The Conference Board of Canada waded into the debate Wednesday, saying there will not be a “free fall” in the market but rather a pause in what has been, in recent years, rapid price increases.
Canada’s real-estate market has now lost its lustre, but it won’t see the steep price declines occurring in the U.S., today’s report said.
cause it is different in canada!
Canada’s real-estate market has now lost its lustre, but it won’t see the steep price declines occurring in the U.S., today’s report said.
From the personal experience of having relatives living near the Canadian border, I can tell you that this is but another example of the “Canada is different than the U.S.” theme. It’s a perennial favourite up there.
Alas, the bubble denial in our Neighbor to the North is still pretty strong.
Canada raises interest rate. This will kick it in the a-s!
The Conference Board of Canada waded into the debate Wednesday, saying there will not be a “free fall” in the market but rather a pause in what has been, in recent years, rapid price increases.
I guess their prices have reached a “permanently high plateau”.
Welcome to HouseCo
Bulk Buying Real Estate
September 8, 2010 - 1:11 PM | by: Phil Keating
http://liveshots.blogs.foxnews.com/2010/09/08/bulk-buying-real-estate/
If you’re one that loves a “steal of a deal,” South Florida’s real estate market is ready to love you back.
But, the big catch–and in these economic times, it’s a Big Catch–you’ve got to have all cash. But if you do, you can buy a $50,000 condo in Miami Beach, just 2 blocks from the sand and breaking waves. Keep in mind, this is a condo that previously had sold for $172,000. And, in Miami-Dade, Broward and Palm Beach Counties, there are 6000 of these foreclosed or distressed properties on the market.
“This is pure capitalism. If you don’t have all cash, you stand no chance, you’re going to get crushed,” says Peeter Zalewski of CondoVltures.com.
President Obama just told people in Ohio that people were forced to put money on their credit cards and forced to refinance their homes. If that was the case then the FBI should be out looking for those who forced them to do that and throw them in jail!
and then they forced me to buy that BMW and take that vacation to france (and that hot tub, private school, new boobs for the wife).
It was not my fault!!!
Okay, folks. I’ll confess to not having listened to Obama’s Ohio speech. But here’s a bit of context:
Since the 1970s, the real incomes of American workers have been flat. And the costs of health care, education, transportation, insurance, and housing have increased dramatically during the same period.
So, Americans have compensated by:
1. Adding a second worker. Usually, this was the wife, who formerly was a stay-at-home mom.
2. Working longer hours. Overtime pay became a budget balancer in many households.
3. When they ran out of workers and overtime, households went into debt. This started in earnest during the 1980s, and, as it so happened, this is when the debt-pushers (credit card companies, hawkers of various types of loans, and other vermin) went into high gear.
So, if you want to look at it from a coping mechanism to deal with higher costs of necessities while one’s income has remained flat, yes, you are forced to do things that you otherwise would not do.
I don`t buy it. I know way too many people that would and have maxed out every credit card and tapped every last $ of “equity” in “their” home before they cut their lifestyle one bit. Live in their houses for in some cases years without paying the mortgage and in some cases collect rent on houses they are not paying the mortgage on. And in the end blame it on anyone or anything but themselves.
I know that it’s fun to think tha everyone went into debt buying luxury cars, designer clothes, etc., but I know plenty of people who do what Slim describes:
The tranny blows out on the car, it goes on the credit card.
An appendix needs to be removed and they have no insurance. It goes on the credit card.
The 20 year old furnace gives up the ghost. It goes on the credit card.
Lather, rinse, repeat.
The truth probably is that there are plenty of both. Which is why I have a problem with big government programs, they are made to help people that really need it and taken advantage of by millions that don`t. Like the 3 men I know 45 to 50 years old and on full social security disability. All 3 very healthy out playing ball with their kids, riding bikes and doing home improvement projects.
I support government programs, but I agree the targeting could be better.
I’ll also say, for every family that pays for necessary health care with a credit card, there’s two paying for the ipod, the iphone, the iphone contract, the instant messages, and so forth. These are not essentials. But, it takes real pain, with no option except cutting them out, for the “keep me up with the Joneses” set to get the message. And it is those people that give much-needed government programs both financial inefficiency and political stigma.
IAT
“Like the 3 men I know 45 to 50 years old and on full social security disability. All 3 very healthy out playing ball with their kids, riding bikes and doing home improvement projects.”
Roughly a third of the friends I grew up with are on SSDI doing exactly as you describe; common thread–no college degree.
Since the 1970s, the real incomes of American workers have been flat. And the costs of health care, education, transportation, insurance, and housing have increased dramatically during the same period.
Errr - you forgot a big one that has gone way up - TAXES.
Just one SMALL example. New Jersey in 1970 had NO income tax, sales tax at 5% and property taxes that were very affordable…
Lockheed to cut executive workforce by up to 25%
NEW YORK (MarketWatch) — Lockheed Martin Corp. said Wednesday it will slash its executive workforce by up to 25% to garner “substantial” cost savings in 2011. In total, more than 600 executives have accepted financial incentives to leave the Bethesda, Md., military contractor. “The executive reductions will help align the number of senior leaders with the overall decline of about 10,000 in the employee population since the beginning of last year, cut overhead costs and management layers, and increase the corporation’s speed and agility in meeting commitments,” Lockheed said in a statement.
I wonder if Lockheed is preparing for big defense cuts coming in the near future…
“…..increase the corporation’s speed and agility…”
I’ve never been able to figure out how piling more work on fewer people increases “speed and agility”.
But I’m just a simple caveman, and don’t understand all these new management concepts.
“Speed and agility” is code for “bigger profits”.
Mortgage applications fall 1.5 percent as rates tick up from lowest level in decades
WASHINGTON (AP) — Applications for home loans dipped last week as mortgage rates ticked up slightly from the lowest level in decades.
The Mortgage Bankers Association says overall applications fell 1.5 percent from a week earlier. Applications to refinance home loans fell 3.1 percent, the first drop in six weeks. Those taken out to purchase homes, however, rose 6.3 percent to the highest level since May. The numbers are adjusted for seasonal factors.
Applications to refinance loans made up about 82 percent of all home loan activity, down from nearly 83 percent a week earlier.
Rates have been at or near the lowest level in decades since spring as investors have shifted money into safer Treasury bonds. That has lowered their yields, which mortgage rates tend to track.
The average rate for a 30-year fixed loan rose to 4.5 percent from 4.43 percent a week earlier. Rates on the 15-year fixed-rate mortgage, a common refinancing option, increased to 4 percent from 3.88 percent.
The Mortgage Bankers Association’s survey covers more than 50 percent of all applications nationwide.
The liberals now controlling 1/3 of all new construction?
Green building takes off in real estate slump
http://content.usatoday.com/communities/greenhouse/post/2010/09/green-building-takes-off-in-real-estate-slump/1
Green building remains the bright spot in an otherwise dull U.S. real estate market as companies and homeowners look to lower utility bills.
It now accounts for nearly one-third of new U.S. construction, up from 2% in 2005, according to report aired Tuesday by NPR, which cites industry data from McGraw-Hill Construction.
“Don’t go around saying the world owes you a living. The world owes you nothing. It was here first.”
~ Mark Twain
U.S. names Asian carp czar
September 8, 2010
The White House has tapped a former leader of the Indiana Department of Natural Resources and the Indiana Wildlife Federation as the Asian carp czar to oversee the federal response to keeping the invasive species out of the Great Lakes.
On a conference call today with Illinois Sen. Dick Durbin and other congressional leaders, President Obama’s Council on Environmental Quality announced the selection of John Goss to lead the near $80 million, multi-pronged federal attack against Asian carp.
“This is a serious challenge, a serious threat,” Durbin said. “When it comes to the Asian carp threat, we are not in denial. We are not in a go-slow mode. We are in a full attack, full-speed ahead mode. We want to stop this carp from advancing.”
Build the net!
He’s going to need some waders and a really, really big net.
Nuke the carp!
A house for every carp!
And a carp in every pot!
And here I thought it said “Asian Crap Czar.”
Carp-ageddon?
It is worth noting that the Asian carp is no ordinary fish. It grows rapidly and can weigh up to 30 pounds within a few years
The Asian carp is also a spectacular leaper, able to fling its body 10 feet above the water or higher, a phenomenon caused by noise, particularly from motorboats. As a result, in rivers where the carp has taken over, pleasure boaters, water skiers and fishermen are increasingly being forced to dodge huge flying fish as they motor down their favorite waterway
Still, some areas where the carp have taken over are turning lemons into lemonade: just yesterday, Gov. Patrick J. Quinn of Illinois signed an agreement to export up to 30 million pounds of Asian carp annually from the Illinois River to China, where it is considered a tasty dish.
“On a conference call today with Illinois Sen. Dick Durbin and other congressional leaders, President Obama’s Council on Environmental Quality announced the selection of John Goss to lead the near $80 million, multi-pronged federal attack against Asian carp.”
Why are they spending $80 million to fight the only new growth industry in the U.S. today? What does a pound of carp go for anyway?
There was a shortage of carp last Xmas in California.The Polish in Bakersfield had a fit.
“If you can’t beat ‘em, eat ‘em,” Mr. Quinn said at a news conference.
Harry “Weasel” Reid sez…
Harry Reid: “I had nothing to do with” bad economy.
Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, facing a tough re-election bid in one of the states hardest hit by the recession, said today that the economic downturn was not his fault.
“I had nothing to do with the massive foreclosures here,” Reid said during an appearance on the ABC News/Washington Post “Top Line” program, adding that he also had no part in contributing to the state’s dismal unemployment figures.
At 14.3 percent, Nevada’s unemployment rate ranks the highest in the country. The Silver State has also been hit hard by foreclosure and bankruptcy; an Associated Press analysis found that Nevada is the most economically stressed state in the nation.
Reid’s opponent, former state Assemblywoman Sharron Angle (R), has placed the blame for Nevada’s economic woes squarely on Reid’s shoulders. Her latest TV ad highlights the state’s record unemployment and charges that Reid “has dragged Nevada down to perhaps its lowest point ever.”
Yet another example of why you never want to be in power when a massive downturn hits.
Bush had impeccable timing on his exit, and the republicans lost control of both houses right before the mother of all financial meltdowns. Then McCain threw the election and they got the trifecta of blame dodging!
Well played, republicans. Well played indeed.
“I had nothing to do with the massive foreclosures here,”
What about the carp Harry? Did you have anything to do with the GD carp? The carp are advancing. Now what are you going to do about it?
Damn you evil republicans for getting voted out of office!
Not sure which is the more ridiculous here? Angle for blaming Harry for ‘all’ of it ( or Harry claiming he had ‘nothing’ to do w/ it? )
Either way, if Reid can’t or refuses to stand up and take ‘his’ share of accountability, then he has to go.
Not damning them. It was smart to throw the election. Republicans and Democrats are both utter crap as a whole. I’d rather hire kindergarteners to run the country.
“Bush had impeccable timing on his exit, and the republicans lost control of both houses right before the mother of all financial meltdowns. Then McCain threw the election and they got the trifecta of blame dodging!”
Disagree, as he was a bit to close to completely disassociate. Clinton, on the other hand, had great timing.
If it ain’t fixed, don’t break it more.
Fixing America’s Broken Housing Market
Joseph E. Stiglitz
http://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/stiglitz129/English
both US political parties supported policies that encouraged excessive investment in housing and excessive leverage, while free-market ideology dissuaded regulators from intervening to stop reckless lending. If the government were to walk away now, real-estate prices would fall even further, banks would come under even greater financial stress, and the economy’s short-run prospects would become bleaker.
But that is precisely why a government-managed mortgage market is dangerous. Distorted interest rates, official guarantees, and tax subsidies encourage continued investment in real estate, when what the economy needs is investment in, say, technology and clean energy.
Moreover, continuing investment in real estate makes it all the more difficult to wean the economy off its real-estate addiction, and the real-estate market off its addiction to government support. Supporting further real-estate investment would make the sector’s value even more dependent on government policies, ensuring that future policymakers face greater political pressure from interests groups like real-estate developers and bonds holders.
Current US policy is befuddled, to say the least. The Federal Reserve Board is no longer the lender of last resort, but the lender of first resort. Credit risk in the mortgage market is being assumed by the government, and market risk by the Fed. No one should be surprised at what has now happened: the private market has essentially disappeared.
“If it ain’t fixed, don’t break it more.”
Step 1 for getting out of a hole:
STOP DIGGING.
“The Federal Reserve Board is no longer the lender of last resort, but the lender of first resort.”
Will the Fed soon open an REO department?
“Will the Fed soon open an REO department?”
They specialize in laundramats.
Homebuilders Revive Stalled U.S. Projects as Banks Unload Lots
Builders, facing record low demand, are trying to boost margins and revenue by pulling unfinished projects out of mothballs.
Sept. 8 (Bloomberg) — Builders are buying lots at less than half their original prices from lenders eager to move distressed construction loans off their books. Developments are being resuscitated from Florida, California, and Las Vegas to Utah and the suburbs of Washington.
Construction crews are returning to the Cascades of Groveland, a gated 55-and-older community west of Orlando, Florida, almost three years after its bankrupt developer left owners of the existing 238 houses surrounded by empty lots, partially built homes, and an unfinished clubhouse.
Shea Homes, a builder based in Walnut, California, bought the remaining 761 lots from Bank of America Corp. in June and reopened the project Aug. 25 with a new sales office, lower prices and a changed name: “Trilogy.” Residents, who had taken over the guardhouse for mahjong, bingo and poker games, will get a 38,000-square-foot (3,530-square-meter) recreational center with indoor and outdoor pools, tennis courts and a card room.
“For the people here, the activity of construction equipment is music to their ears,” said Eric Sorkin, 61, president of the homeowners association at the development, 35 miles northwest of Walt Disney World. “There’s a future.”
Builders are buying lots at less than half their original prices from lenders eager to move distressed construction loans off their books. Developments are being resuscitated from Florida, California, and Las Vegas to Utah and the suburbs of Washington, D.C., according to Brad Hunter, chief economist for Metrostudy, a Houston-based housing researcher.
“Builders, facing record low demand, are trying to boost margins and revenue by pulling unfinished projects out of mothballs.”
Seeing it on my drive to work — large, recently graded lots where the construction is cranking up again, near the supersized billboard advertising, ‘From the $700s.’
I wonder how they will get the taxpayers to share in the cost of paying for these, given a dearth of fundamental demand for them at the builders’ wishing price?
Et tu Canada??
Sellers’ market over for housing
http://www.ctv.ca/generic/generated/static/business/article1697362.html
Anyone hoping that the real estate market turned around for the better in August probably won’t want to hear the latest news from Vancouver and Toronto. The real estate boards in each city are among the first to release their monthly sales data, and tend to foreshadow the broader national data that will be released on Sept. 15 by the Canadian Real Estate Association. Here’s what they’re seeing:
SALES
The two cities released their August data late last week, and real estate boards in both cities have conceded that the heady days of the seller’s market are over. In Vancouver, sales were down 36 per cent from August, 2009. In Toronto, sales were 22 per cent lower.
“The prospect of interest rate hikes and new mortgage lending rules prompted some households to purchase a home sooner than they otherwise would have this year. The result has been a larger than normal dip in sales over the summer months,” Toronto Real Estate Board president Bill Johnston said.
PRICES
After peaking earlier this year, average sale prices in both cities have fallen back as well. In Vancouver, prices are down 2.8 per cent from April’s peak and ended August at $576,803. In Toronto, the average price in August was $411,012 – 8.6 per cent lower than May’s high of $446,593.
No, that will not happen. It will just be a natural pause in the relentless advance to infinity. They aren’t making any more lakefront.
China blacks out towns to meet energy goal
BEIJING (AP) - Chinese steel mills and mobile phone factories are being idled and thousands of homes in one area are doing without electricity as local governments order power cuts to meet energy-saving targets set by Beijing.
Rolling blackouts and enforced power cuts are affecting key industrial areas. The prosperous eastern city of Taizhou turned off street lights and ordered hotels and shopping malls to cut power use. In Anping County southwest of Beijing, an area known as China’s wire-manufacturing capital, thousands of factories and homes have endured daylong blackouts over the past two weeks.
“We can’t meet deadlines for some orders and will have to pay penalties,” said Han Hongmai, general manager of Anping’s Jintai Metal Wire Co. “At home we can’t use the toilet” on blackout days due to lack of power for water pumps, he said.
While the U.S. and Europe struggle with flagging economies, the power outages are symptomatic of China’s torrid growth and officials’ capricious use of their powers to meet the authoritarian government’s goals.
We thought it was tough in the 70s only being able to buy gas every other day.
“capricious use of their powers”?
It’s not capricious. It’s judicious. They have a dictatorship. They believe they must be energy conscious. They are honest with the people. And they back up their policy with action.
If you didn’t have the “dictator” part, it’d be a model of how to get people to do the right thing, and feel like they are connected to each other, not just every person for themself. Only in America is this interpreted as “capricious.”
IAT
Southeast Michigan employers to cut 420 jobs in coming weeks, WARN notices show.
Nine Michigan private sector employers will shed a combined 863 jobs in the coming weeks, including 420 jobs at five employers in Southeast Michigan, according to new data for plant closings and layoff notices from the state Department of Energy, Labor and Economic Growth.
The DELEG Rapid Response Section reported five notices statewide during August of pending plant closings or plant layoffs, under the federal Worker Adjustment and Retraining Notification Act.
That’s compared with three WARN Act notices affecting fewer than 100 employees in July.
The August layoff notices include 285 jobs to be eliminated by October for Auburn Hills-based photovoltaic solar cells maker United Solar Ovonic LLC, a subsidiary of Energy Conversion Devices Inc. in Rochester Hills. It was the region’s largest layoff notice, second only to the Aug. 30 notice that General Motors Co. would cut 330 jobs upon closing its Powertrain Flint North plant in November.
Jamba Juice to sell 13 Florida stores
San Francisco Business Times
Smoothie maker Jamba Inc., which has an accumulated deficit of almost $350 million, continues to try and raise money by selling stores.
Emeryville-based Jamba inked a deal to sell 13 company owned stores in Florida. The buyer is Great Service Restaurants LLC, run by Arturo Zindel, Jordi Zindel, Guillermo Perez Vargas and Angel Herrera.
Jamba, the parent of Jamba Juice Co., hopes to sell, or “refranchise” in corporate-speak, 150 stores this year. These 13 Florida stores make a total of 115 stores sold so far this year.
Thibault de Chatellus oversees franchising for Jamba Juice. James White is the company’s chairman, president and CEO.
Jamba didn’t say how much Great Service Restaurants will pay.
Imagine how many fruit smoothies you would have to sell to service the debt on $350 million - even at low interest rates…
Another trend business based on a fantasy economy dies. Like Mudbucks, a complete waste of hard earned money. I’ve never understood why people buy into these overpriced trends. I’d rather get my sugar from a cheap and delicious American candy bar.
As for me, I’d rather make my fruit smoothies in my own blender. Which is about 20 years old and still works just fine.
We have one of those too. And a kitchen-aide mixer. They’ll both probably outlast me.
Light brown Osterizer Galaxie, here, with orange buttons. (And Galaxie is even written in old-school cursive) Handed down by the parents when I left for college in ‘88 and good as new. Soy milk, one banana, some protein powder, and Trader Joe’s frozen berries. Much better than the Jamba.
“Another trend business based on a fantasy economy dies”
They lost all their house flipping phony wanna be seen “millionaires” like Casey whatever the hell his last name was.
My wife used to love Jamba Juice, until I went on their web site and showed her the sugar content of the drinks she liked. She thought she was being health conscious, but she would have been better off cracking open a can of Dr. Pepper.
Fed Report Shows Widespread Signs Growth Is Easing- Reuters
The economy has shown “widespread signs” of slowing over recent weeks, the Federal Reserve said on Wednesday in a report suggesting the recovery was faltering along the East Coast and in the Midwest.
This guy makes some good points about our current economic situation. But I think he makes a wrong turn when he equates houses with nest eggs. They aren’t. They’re places to live.
BTW, Alyssa Katz’s latest book, Our Lot, also comes down hard on the notion of homeownership as a way of building wealth.
“But I think he makes a wrong turn when he equates houses with nest eggs.”
Would ‘vanishing nest eggs’ capture it?
Recalled eggs, is more like it, given all the forclosures!
Arizona Slim,
On Pres. Truman insisting on complete plans rebuilding White House:
Truman wanted everything handled correctly, on the job and on paper. When he learned of a movement within the commission to dispense with making complete plans of the installations in the new building–as a way of cutting costs–he responded at once with a terse memorandum…:
“It is absolutely essential that the conduits, both wire and water, and all the complicated arrangements underneath the floors and air conditioning service, be put on paper so that future mechanics of the White house can find things when it is necessary to make repairs. One of the difficulties with the old White House was that nobody knew where anything went and why it was there.
Now there just isn’t any sense in not having…complete plans….
I want this done and if it requires an extra appropriation to get it done we will get that done too.”
Truman, 1992 David McCullouch page 882
Truman, 1992 David McCullouch page 1050 online
http://books.google.com/books?id=8fp1A2s6aQwC&pg=PA1050&lpg=PA1050&dq=%22Truman+wanted+everything+handled+correctly,+on+the+job+and+on+paper.%22&source=bl&ots=6cfDhmasd8&sig=KIfmr8D3zAMz-d0Bvl521MJMfc0&hl=en&ei=muuHTM-tF4SglAe4sbku&sa=X&oi=book_result&ct=result&resnum=1&ved=0CBIQ6AEwAA#v=onepage&q=%22Truman%20wanted%20everything%20handled%20correctly%2C%20on%20the%20job%20and%20on%20paper.%22&f=false
Truman sounds like a man after mine own heart. And I think I’d better read Truman the book. Sounds like it goes in-depth into the White House renovation project.
Local merchants hoping for turnaround
The Telegraph
Clouds of economic recession still hover over El Dorado Hills and Folsom, just as they cover most of California, even while experts say the rest of the country is crawling out of the slump.
The business picture is mixed for local merchants. The Wine Konnection in El Dorado Hills’ Town Center, for example, recently disconnected, pulling the plug on the bar and restaurant and closing shop. Gone, too, on the other side of town is the once popular Burger Hut, a victim of the economy and the arrival of too many burger competitors.
Carol Ratto, co-owner with her husband of Folsom Motor Works on Bidwell Street, said the shop has “felt the pinch, just like everybody else. The economy definitely has affected us. We’ve really had to streamline, become more efficient.”
That’s meant not replacing an employee who left. “It’s been really tight. Customers just aren’t prepared to pay for the costs of their repairs and breakdowns. They can’t afford it and they don’t have the work done unless it’s absolutely necessary,” Ratto said. “We’ve even had people tow their vehicles and take them home because they can’t afford to repair them.”
Custom framing has also taken a hit.
“It’s tough” too at Hang It Up, the Town Center custom framing and gallery shop, said co-owner Dave Williams. “We’re in a retail segment that’s very much not a ‘gotta have’ niche. Custom framing and art are in more of an upscale retail segment.”
The shop owner said people are focusing on necessities at the moment.
“You don’t need art work to have food on the table and a roof over your head,” Williams said. “Our business is driven by the housing market but I’ve been surprised the past six weeks that the art side of the business has shown a little bit of life as people who can’t sell their homes decide to stay put and remodel or redecorate.”
He said things have gotten as bad as they can be.
“I do believe we’re through the bottom, so things are becoming good, but not as good as we would like,” he said. “Mid-2009 until late spring this year was a real struggle period.”
He said things have gotten as bad as they can be.
Yeah, it couldn’t possibly get worse.
“It’s tough” too at Hang It Up, the Town Center custom framing and gallery shop, said co-owner Dave Williams. “We’re in a retail segment that’s very much not a ‘gotta have’ niche. Custom framing and art are in more of an upscale retail segment.”
The FDIC is selling artwork that used to hang on failed bankers walls. All of it comes already framed too.
www fdic gov/buying/otherasset/failedbank/index.html
Been working on the new house for 9 days, got the walls and floor in the kitchen stripped. The cabinets and walls are done and I will be finished laying 280 sq.ft. of 13×13 smooth slate tile by Friday. Hadn’t set tile in a number of years so the going is a bit slow.
I have been enjoying the project and we will move in a week from Friday. Then the work continues indefinitely!
Will we be putting in granite countertops?
Nah, I think we’ll pass, LOL! That’s so yesterday, I hear pewter counters tops are in now,
“I hear pewter counters tops are in now”
Pewter (a seething $hitpot amalgam of metals that includes lead) makes great cutting boards too.
There might not be a better time to create a super secret hiding place.. or two.
You know, I was thinking just that yesterday while wondering around the place.
“There might not be a better time to create a super secret hiding place.. or two.”
“You know, I was thinking just that yesterday while wondering around the place.”
Sheesh… You KNOW that either the Redcoats coming or republicans are planning a big raid when even Joey and wmbz are thinking about hiding the family jewels and silverware.
“I have been enjoying the project and we will move in a week from Friday. Then the work continues indefinitely!”
That is something that I do miss. After owning for 21 years, remodeling the bathrooms and kitchen, laying tile, painting, doing some landscaping. It made the wife happy and although I always griped about doing it, mostly for affect. I always felt good when it was done.
Beware of religious leaders with low hairlines and phony credentials.
September 8, 2010, 4:30 pm
Florida Pastor Says Koran Burning Still On
By ROBERT MACKEY
…
“German media have reported that Jones also ran into legal trouble while here and was convicted by a Cologne administrative court in 2002 of falsely using the title of ‘doctor’ although he had not completed a Ph.D., and fined him €3,000 ($3,800). Jones calls himself ‘Dr.’ on the Web site of the Dove World Outreach Center.”
This clown is looking for attention, and he sure is getting it. World wide!
It would be tragic if more American soldiers died because of his shenanigans.
It’s why zealots of all stripes and creeds are a problem, here and abroad.
I view this dope much like I view the mosque 2 blocks from ground 0. He has the right to do it but that doesn`t make it right. Or respectful. Or smart.
I view this dope much like I view the mosque 2 blocks from ground 0. He has the right to do it but that doesn`t make it right. Or respectful. Or smart.
But didn’t our soldiers die for American’s right to burn the Koran?
If you can read, thank a teacher.
If you can read English, thank a Marine.
omg.. What’s he trying to do.. start a war?
——
“Hello. I’d like to buy a Koran, please”
“What do you want it for?”
“Umm.. I’m going to read it, of course.”
“No you’re not, you filthy Christian pig! You want to burn it!”
“No, I swear. I want to study it.”
“Well.. ok. That’ll be $12… 12.. out of $20?”
” Yeah.. Oh.. and one of those Zippo lighters. The one with the US flag.”
Florida Pastor Says Koran Burning Still On
It is very confusing.
Isn’t “Burn the Koran Day” usually in March?
March? No.. You’re thinking of “Burn the US Constitution Day”. Or is that Piss on a Crucifix Day?
Now you’ve got me all confused.. March.. March..
Here it is: March 12th. Torch a Temple Day.
good ol’ wikipedia..
Religion… reminds me why I put character first. You are what you do.
Joey -March 12th
*Jews of Vienna were forced to embrace Christianity or were burned at the stake
I guess the Pastor wants to show his Jewish Savior what a mensch(sp?) he is? That isn’t very Christian of him.
Religion - Love it or leave it. I left.
Religion… reminds me why I put character first. You are what you do.
That holds truth however religion has shaped, enhanced and regulated character since civilization.
Maybe it’s different now that we don’t need it.
Yeah, civilization, that amazing monument to humanitarianism
IAT
sarcasm off
“Florida Burning”
Will it be anything like Mississippi Burning?
How can one separate the effect of market forces from intervention in determining U.S. bond yields?
The Financial Times
Ignore the hyperbole: America is not bust
By Mark T. Williams
Published: September 8 2010 15:18 | Last updated: September 8 2010 15:18
A growing chorus of doomsayers claims the US government is bankrupt, pointing to escalating national debt, falling gross domestic product and a possible double-dip recession as proof. Some argue that America is worse off than Greece. Such hyperbole garners media attention but ignores what the market is telling us. (The US, let us remember, remains the world’s largest economy with annual GDP of $14,600bn.)
…
The market attempts to price the likelihood of default by charging a commensurate interest rate. Holders of sovereign debt demand higher returns to compensate for higher perceived risk of non-payment. All things being equal, a country that can issue debt at 3 per cent is deemed less likely to go bust than one that has to pay 6 per cent. In Europe this default risk is seen in the Greek-German bond spread of over 900 basis points. The 10-year Greek bond yields 11.68 per cent. Unlike Greece, Germany continues to enjoy a 10-year borrowing rate of 2.20 per cent. The 10-year Gilt is slightly higher at 2.9 per cent.
Over the course of history, there have been a handful of sovereigns that have not honoured their obligations. Most of these nations have defaulted on foreign-currency denominated debt. The US only issues bonds in domestic currency and has no foreign currency denominated bonds. Recent examples of defaulting sovereigns include Russia, Venezuela, Ukraine, Ecuador, Peru, Argentina, Uruguay, the Dominican Republic and Belize.
Using market-derived cost of borrowing as a default meter, the two-year US Treasury is currently yielding only 1/2 per cent. The five-, 10- and 30-year Treasuries are at 1.45, 2.69, and 3.75 per cent respectively. When these are adjusted for inflation, investors are willing to accept negative yields in return for safety. Such historically low rates make it easy for the US to inexpensively raise debt.
US Treasuries continue to pass the market stress test. Even during 2008 crisis, global investors sought greater safety in US bonds – pushing the 10-year to its all-time low of 2.04 per cent. The solvency of US bonds was tested again during the recent financial disturbance cause by Portugal, Italy, Greece and Spain. Despite market uncertainty, US bond yields dropped significantly while those of the eurozone periphery rose. Globally investors dumped riskier sovereign bonds and snapped up US Treasuries.
…
Ignore the hyperbole: America is not bust
I told ya. Bust? Bust to whom? It’s all relativity.
We’re not busted flat in Baton Rouge, waiting on a train, with a feeling nearly as faded as our jeans.
Were we “bust” when the Germans bombed Pearl Harbor?
If we’re “bust”, what is everyone else?
Alas, it is not all relative. It is kinda sad that people have been living in a world of dollars so long they have forgotten that dollars only represent material value, dollars themselves are not material value. The representation can seem so solid that it appears the dollars themselves are material value for a very long time, only to completely dissolve in an instant and become completely lacking in value, symbolic or otherwise.
There are lots of things that can precipitate that dissolution. The more true the underlying fact (the U.S. is insolvent) becomes realized, the more likely a precipitating event that, under normal conditions would mean nothing, “causes” the near-immediate collapse of the economy.
This has happened with currencies, with nations, with wars, and more. What this means is very simple–relativity doesn’t feed anyone, and knowing you’re better off than some other nation doesn’t put anyone to work. And, being the richest of all the countries won’t mean anything if 2/3 people in every country are starving.
Not to be a Darren Downer, but my sense is that is where we are heading and, given that the U.S.’s being on top of the status quo makes us most invested in the status quo, we are heading to ruin faster than anyone else.
IAT
Not to be a Darren Downer, but my sense is that is where we are heading and, given that the U.S.’s being on top of the status quo makes us most invested in the status quo, we are heading to ruin faster than anyone else.
Ruin? Ruin of what? The status quo? Maybe we invested in the wrong thing. The “money” is here. Just ask those who have it. They will tell you. Or maybe not.
What good is money, if there’s no product to buy?
IAT
Third World, here we come!
* The Wall Street Journal
* WORLD NEWS
* SEPTEMBER 9, 2010
U.S. Falls in Ranks of Global Economy
By JON HILSENRATH
The financial crisis and its aftermath may be taking a longer-term toll on the competitiveness of the U.S. economy, according to a study by the World Economic Forum.
The U.S. fell two spots, to rank No. 4 behind Switzerland, Sweden and Singapore in the Geneva-based organization’s annual survey of global competitiveness. Germany climbed two notches to end in fifth place; Japan was ranked No. 6.
“The [U.S.] public does not demonstrate strong trust of politicians,” while the business community “considers that the government spends its resources relatively wastefully,” the group concluded from its study.
The report is based on surveys and a wide range of economic data.
“There is also increasing concern related to the functioning of [U.S.] private institutions, with a measurable weakening of the assessment of auditing and reporting standards as well as corporate ethics,” the group said.
…