The Housing Bubble

Yesterday, I mentioned that my nabe had been on the downhill slide for many years.

One of the things that started things back uphill in the 1990s was that this area was discovered by gay and lesbian couples. They came in, fixed up a number of houses that had seen better days, and some of them still live here. They’re good folks, and I’m glad they’re my neighbors.

That’s why we need the death penalty. Those guys simply cannot be reformed.

I read somewhere its estimated that 10% of the general population are “sociopaths” - people with no conscience.

The scary ones are the smart ones.

To learn more about sociopaths (and keep in mind that this term is used interchangeably with “psychopath”), read Robert Hare’s excellent book, Without Conscience.

With regards from your HBB Librarian…

Sociopaths are not the serial killers, that would be the psychopaths. A much smaller group.

From what I read most sociopaths are harmless. They are certainly unethicial, but most are simply hucksters.

Far from simply “hucksters” these people are NOT harmless, occupying positions with titles such as CEO, VP, President, Member of Congress, Senator etc, we LOVE the lies they feed us without ANY tells. The most sophisticated ones we call “charismatic” and they are / have destroying our world. Until as humans we can learn to identify these sociopaths, we are doomed to serve under them.

Most of us are honest and want to trust, which makes us particularly vulnerable when a politician or “leader” gets up and woos us with lies and garbage, without so much as a twinkle of a tell. No looking left and down, no fidgeting, no facial quirks, just the ability to look straight at us and say “I did not have sex with that woman”…. Or the Economy is recovering, or buy now before you are priced out forever or whatever garbage they are trying to stuff down your throats.

Personally, the first time a neighbor commented how charismatic Obama was and what great speeches he gave I already did not like him, not that I liked the ones than came before either. We need cumbersome awkward smart people in office, not true BSers…

My experience:

Old Money = nice, polite, kind and hide their wealth.
New Money = rude, obnoxious, narcissistic and flaunt their wealth.

Obviously there are quite a few exceptions….

Old Money = nice, polite, kind and hide their wealth.
New Money = rude, obnoxious, narcissistic and flaunt their wealth.

My experience as well, butters. Matter of fact, I went to college with one of the Gambles. As in, Procter and Gamble.

Nicest kid you’d ever want to meet, and, oh, could she write. I was in a creative writing class with her, and, quite frankly, she blew the rest of us out of there. She was that good.

I think she pursued writing as a career, because the alumni magazine recently had news of her latest book.

Totally right. In my youth, I helped skipper a
boat, The Blue Blade, owned by one of the
Gillette’s, the nicest people you’d ever want to meet. Bill was my mentor financially.

I once purchased a power supply off an ad placed on the ebay search page. I had looked for the item in ebay’s listings and none were available, then I saw an ad at the bottom of the search page. I don’t know if Google places that or if ebay solicits that as advertising revenue. But I did get a good little power supply.

Huh? There are ads on google? since when?

I commented to a colleague just yesterday that although I have faithfully used Google since its inception, I cannot recall purchasing a single item I saw in one of its ads.

And I’m with you, brotha.

BTW, I’ve used Google AdWords to promote various business ventures. Invariably, the click-throughs and inquiries have been worthless.

So, needless to say, I no longer promote via AdWords.

But we are dealing with marginal new expenses of expanding. I’m trying to be a little subtle by including and idea of fixed costs and variable costs. Also, your idea works if the person has the additional capital around to take out of the 4% “safe” investment. If they are borrowing the money to get the new employee up and working, then you might need to clear a lot more than 4% depending on what their cost of capital is.

Very true Polly, but I’m a brute force kind of guy. I could use some of your finess.

I just posted a whole analysis showing that given the assumptions I put out, that employer will still make more money by hiring the new employee. A little bit less than under the current rates, but still quite a bit more.

Businesses only pay taxes on *profit*. The costs of a new employee reduce the profit. So if the new employee could make the business a profit in excess of the cost of capital, he or she will get hired. Now, cost of capital could be too high (you might be able to do better by putting the money in a savings account) or demand could be too low (new employee can’t generate enough new revenue to cover the variable costs of hiring him) but you ONLY get to taxes once the employee has made you a profit.

This whole issue should have been explained completely when the “Joe the plummer” thing happened. I was itching for candidate Obama to get technical on him and explain that $250K wasn’t revenue, it was the money left over after all expenses were paid. I don’t think the guy had a clue what he was talking about. Why should he? He was an employee. He didn’t fill out schedule C.

. I don’t think the guy had a clue what he was talking about.

Neither did Obama.

It is very unlikely that Obama doesn’t understand that business taxes are paid on profit, not revenue. You could hear it in the assumptions he was making as he talked to the guy. $250K in revenue would not be that much money in a business that has significant costs (like having to buy pipes and joints and sinks and things as a plumber). But it is quite a bit of money to have left over when you finish paying for those costs and an employee or two.

I understand the decision not to get into the numbers in public. He wasn’t there to humiliate the guy and he didn’t want to get stuck into the technocrat box that got Kerry and Gore into so much trouble (among other things). But as I am always saying, math matters, and you can’t argue with people who are getting the math wrong unless you present the math that is right.

Again… you’re avoiding the question.

Why would a wage earner such as yourself want to shoulder a larger portion of the tax burden so that those who are more fortunate shoulder less?

He doesn’t want to pay more. He wants other 40k earners to pay more.

Businesses only pay taxes on *profit*. The costs of a new employee reduce the profit.

Uh…..not quite true……..

In the City of Los Angeles you pay business tax on your gross receipts. Other cities may do the same thing.

Also, (in CA) when you hire a new employee the employer pays:
- Social security tax
- Medicare tax
- Federal Unemployment tax
- State unemployment tax
- Workers compensation insurance

So there are a myriad of “pre-tax profit” taxes that an employer has to pay when hiring a new employee - not counting the salary paid. You pay all of this well before you know whether the new employee has led to increased after-tax profitability for your company.

For most states you also left out:

Business license tax
Sales taxes on purchases
Real Property Taxes
Tangible personal property taxes
Intangible taxes
Fuel taxes
License fees on vehicles used in the business
Franchise taxes

A state revenuer auditing us not too long ago was amazed at the “low amount of state income tax your company pays given its revenue”. When I totalled all of the state and local taxes we paid in the year in question she just said she was sorry and would keep her comments to herself. It is hard to pay income taxes when all the various taxes and user fees you have to pay eat up all the income.

If we are talking about the move from 35% to 39.6%, then all the taxes you note above are already in place and reduce the taxable income.

Increasing taxes from 35%-39.6% would have a larger impact on businesses by virtue of reducing disposable income and potentially hurting the top line. That is by far the bigger impact. Not “the owners of the company make less money after tax and so they hire fewer workers”. That’s just silly. If they can earn more money by hiring more workers, then they will.

I don’t know what business you are modeling but I am in business. I have a 26 year old business and I will trade the one I have in a heart beat for one where I can make $50k/per year net profit per profit making employee.

I guess it’s time for you do actually do something productive for society.

You do work hard full time at being a jackass.

When the truth is rolled out, the whiners attack.

Well done.

I think you have to be nuts to have that many employees without being incorporated…

Agreed, polly. Matter of fact, I was sitting here asking, “C-corp or S-corp?”

It would probably be a choice between and S-corp and a single member limited liability company. I think that the single member LLC might be ignored for tax purposes, so maybe that option is the same as the one I have below with the owner just putting the businesses revenue and expenses on schedule C.

Seriously, I only deal with schedule C when I am helping out friends. It usually involves hanging out on the floor (floors are the *best* places to sort through unorganized finanical papers) for 3 to 5 hours at a time. I don’t volunteer for it all that often.

“It doesn’t matter what I’m bringing home - that’s MY money!”

FLAT…. DEAD…..WRONG

And further to the point… you don’t earn a mere fraction of that amount so why would you make the case for us lowly wage slave to pay a larger proportion of our income while those who don’t share our day to day concerns pay less?

FLAT…. DEAD…..WRONG

Care to back that up?

you don’t earn a mere fraction of that amount

You have no clue what I make.

why would you make the case for us lowly wage slave to pay a larger proportion of our income while those who don’t share our day to day concerns pay less?

Because I have principles, integrity and values. Some things are right and wrong regardless of what one makes. I don’t feel I’m entitled to the fruits of someone else’s labor, PERIOD. Whether they make $10 or $10 million.

It’s not “us” vs “them”. As butters points out, it’s about right or wrong, regardless of who’s on the receiving end.

Because I have principles, integrity and values. Some things are right and wrong regardless of what one makes. I don’t feel I’m entitled to the fruits of someone else’s labor, PERIOD.

Then why do you feel entitled to all the benefits of American society without having to chip in? What kind of utopia do you envision where nothing has to be paid for? Or do you expect someone else’s fruits of labor to pay your share?

Freedom is not free.

I don’t feel I’m entitled to the fruits of someone else’s labor, PERIOD.

So you paid for the roads, sewers, fresh water, courts, safety agencies, and science and technology that make modern life possible… all by yourself?

I think the key word is “entitled”, as in deserve such services without implying anything in return.

This applies to basic freedoms and liberties - I’m entitled to my life and freedom, just by the act of being born, and requiring no work of my own. I’m not however entitled to things that require work by others; for those I need to work myself in exchange for the benefit they provide me. Because of this, I should have a choice in what services I receive, and likewise the person providing said services should have a choice in what to provide, how to provide them, and even whether to provide them. Every increase in government control decreases these choices - both on the receiving side and on the giving side.

(P.S. I’m an idiot for rehashing these same discussions time and again. It’s a character flaw.)

“Then why do you feel entitled to all the benefits of American society without having to chip in? What kind of utopia do you envision where nothing has to be paid for? Or do you expect someone else’s fruits of labor to pay your share?”

Spot on.

I think the key word is “entitled”, as in deserve such services without implying anything in return.

Thanks, Packman. Some people should really keep a dictionary beside their computer.

Rio - please lay off the strawman arguments. I never said I was entitled to use roads. I never said I was unwilling to pay, nor that I expected things to be built/created for free.

What I’m saying is that I don’t feel I have the right to compel anyone else to give me those things against their free will, and no one has a right to compel me either.

People are free to decide to exchange their money for services and vice versa, however.

People are free to decide to exchange their money for services and vice versa, however.

No, they aren’t. I wish it were so, but it isn’t.

How many times have we discussed the “Tragedy of the Commons?” It isn’t theory.

You backed it up for me my friend. And then you frantically ran away from my basic point, just like Banana.

You don’t need to disclose what you earn. We already know what it isn’t.

You don’t “feel”? How about *thinking* for a refreshing new perspective?

When you become a lawmaker, you can do all the compelling you want via the lawmaking process. Until then YOU volunteer to pay the burden for the wealthy elite. Leave the rest of us out of it.

Set aside the fantasy ideological nonsense and step into your reality…..you aren’t the wealthy elite nor will you every be. You were born a wage slave and you will die a wage slave.

You don’t “feel”? How about *thinking* for a refreshing new perspective?

Bring out the personal insults. Way to raise the level of conversation here, exeter.

In conversational English, feel is equivalent to “think” and often “believe”.

Perhaps you should read and think through what people are saying, rather than frothing at the mouth.

And for the record, I’m not volunteering anything for anyone. You are the one trying to compel everyone else. I’m arguing that we should get to make our own decisions, and don’t have a right to make the decisions for others.

Anyway, I’m not going to do this same sh*t over and over with you, especially since you can’t seem to avoid personal attacks.

That’s right….. take sanctimonious offense, real or imagined and runaway when you can’t back up your own ideological tripe.

I hope your *feelings* *feel* better tomorrow.

What I’m saying is that I don’t feel I have the right to compel anyone else to give me those things against their free will, and no one has a right to compel me either. drumminj

I’m not however entitled to things that require work by others; for those I need to work myself in exchange for the benefit they provide me. Because of this, I should have a choice in what services I receive, and likewise the person providing said services should have a choice in what to provide, how to provide them, and even whether to provide them Packman

We live in a Democratic Republic and all that entails. This is not a pure Democracy nor could it ever be and those comments containing some validity in the context of a different political system are good indications of why not.

Excuse me,

I am not a businessman, an owner or a lawyer but I do have a kind of a question. I am known for being old fashioned and very naive to the point of silly. Bear with me.

Didn’t the State’s, granting Charters of Incorporation, at one time have some sort of old fashioned quaint and vague language in them like;

Corporations and it’s Officers should NOT lie, murder, cheat or steal. Behave and play nice or you Charter will be Revoked. That your “Corporation” was expected to add some to Positive Value to the Community in which it resides and the State which issues it While creating jobs and making a Profit?

Like a Code of Conduct ?

Wrong country.

Somalia is where it is today because of its total disregard for property rights.

[insert socialist poster name here]
But “property rights” means regulation, which everyone who believes in a free market is against, right?
[/insert socialist poster name here]

In other words - to some people “free market” = anarchy. There is no middle ground.

You either have regulations or you don’t.

Which is it?

And free market doesn’t mean anarchy, it means big business being free to screw you over without punishment.

If you think it means something else, you are being duped.

You either have regulations or you don’t.

So - by your definition - outlawing murder is regulation, right? So therefore any country that outlaws murder has regulations, and is therefore not a free market country?

If you think it means something else, you are being duped.

Take a good look at yourself in the mirror, buddy. You will soon find out how the duped sheeple look like. At least I recognize what my rights are and protest when the government tries to fkcu me up. Granted I haven’t been much successful at that but I try. I am not a sheeple like you who has sacrificed itself to the altar of the all mighty government.
Government serves you cr@p every time, and you still want more. Pathetic.

You will soon find out how the duped sheeple look like.

Could that be combined and shorted to “Duples”, “Shuples”, “Deeples”?

I’ve been to the Supreme Court. And you?

I’ve been to the Supreme Court. And you?

I hit the street. I don’t think I will get a fair hearing from statists and fascists in the supreme court.

They will never understand this. Never. They think the modern infrastructures and systems they live in sprang fully formed when the earth was created.

Aw you forgot to mention the endless wars, the bank bailouts, robbing peter to pay paul, waste and corruption in every government programs. All brought to you by your harmless little government.

but the fact is that these benefits weren’t paid in full in the past, and now it’s time to collect before things get worse.

No one’s arguing stuff needs to be paid for (or doesn’t need to). If you think that’s what’s being argued, you’re missing the point.

Aw you forgot, endless wars, bank bailouts, hand-outs to their cronies, robbing peter to pay paul, corruption and waste in every government programs, etc……….

All courtesy of your wonderful government.

They use to have tax rates of over 70% against the upper and upper middle class ,but they also had more tax write offs when the rates were that high .Overall the upper class paid more in than they do today,(I remember rates this high in the early 70’s
actually ).

But,if you went to a flat tax rate for all the income brackets the lower class would have less money for basic survival .

In truth ,the upper brackets use the byproducts of tax dollars
more than the poor and benefits to the poor often go back into the higher brackets hands in terms of commerce such as a Doctor gaining income from the Government paying for health care for the poor ,or the poor spending money at a market .

Also ,the rich want the poor appeased so they don’t revolt and
just burn down their Mansions .How much in extra taxes is that worth ?Also ,if the poor were d

Somehow I didn’t finish my post and I now forget what I was going to add .,,,,,,oh well .

Aw you forgot to mention the endless wars, the bank bailouts, robbing peter to pay paul, waste and corruption in every government programs. All brought to you by your harmless little government.

Wrong. All brought to you by Wall St.

So - by your definition - outlawing murder is regulation, right? So therefore any country that outlaws murder has regulations, and is therefore not a free market country?

Civil law vs criminal law. You’ve just compared apples to oranges.

Civil law vs criminal law. You’ve just compared apples to oranges.

So you’re saying property rights aren’t covered under criminal law? Theft is not a criminal act?

P.S. Unfortunately I’m offline for probably the rest of the night, so won’t be able to respond in this thread.

There are actually three basic types of law:

Common
Criminal
Civil

“Property rights” of all kinds can be found under all of them, but it depends on the situation.

For more information, please consult your professor. I’m sure they would be glad to give you a law education for free.

Oh wait…

It seems to me the real issue the libertarians here have is they don’t believe in democracy. A democratically elected government taxing its citizens is not theft. If you think it is theft, then you don’t believe in democracy.

then you don’t believe in democracy.

I don’t believe in democracy. You’re right.

There’s a reason this country is not a pure democracy. Our Founding Fathers didn’t believe in it either.

There’s such a thing as the tyranny of the majority. There are certain basic rights that cannot be usurped by the majority. Private property rights fall into that category.

We’re a republic for a reason.

“No one’s arguing stuff needs to be paid for (or doesn’t need to). If you think that’s what’s being argued, you’re missing the point.”

Are you saying that taxes should be completely voluntary? For example, I’ll pay for the CDC and NIH and National Parks, but not one penny for Homeland Security? That would be an interesting exercise. And something I have contemplated for years. It would give those that pay the most, the most influence on how money is spent. The poor would have little influence, like they do now. The rich who successfully escape paying taxes would also have little say. Every government agency would be advertising like crazy during tax season. What a free-for-all! Sounds like fun.

I don’t believe in democracy. You’re right.

Well then, we’ve identified a key issue.

What differentiates a republic from a democracy? If your point is we’re a representative democracy rather than a direct democracy, that doesn’t mean we’re not a democracy.

A republic really just means a nation without a monarch- a ‘res publica’- a ‘thing of the people’. A representative democracy, which we are, is simply one form of a republic. So is communism. So is socialism.

The right of the government to tax is in the constitution, which describes the ‘res publica’, in our case a representative democracy, that we have agreed to. If you disagree with it, you must either change it through democratic methods, or else renounce your citizenship and earn your money elsewhere.

The Bill of Rights, (the first ten amendments), were placed in the Constitution at the demand of people who (rightly, in my opinion) feared the ‘tyranny of the majority’. But this has nothing to do with our being a ‘republic’. We could easily be a republic without having the Bill of Rights. There are many in the world today.

But more to the point, where in the Bill of Rights (or anywhere else in the Constitution), does it say that you can’t be taxed?

Whenever you hear someone begin a sentence with “Our Founding fathers” you can be sure they’re coming from a legalistic ideological position, thus has no iterest in a rational discussion.

Besides, “our founding fathers”(gag, puke, choke) where slave traders and slave owners. They had no interest in the will of any people.

Lots of these successful small business owners suffered many years of personal hardship along the way. Pennies were precious. These are not the type of people who waste money.

Even if they are making $millions today, a $25,000 loss is serious. Something will change. A responsible party will pay. The loss will be recovered somehow..

From my imaginary analysis, it looks like the best way to make up for the lost revenue is to take on the extra work of hiring and supervising another employee. That will increase take home pay by $36K.

polly,

Most excellent. I realize you have to start somewhere, but it’s not as simple as perhaps we’ve made it out to be. In my industry the avg. B/E for each employee was about 7k per mo.

Even though the “top producers” had corner offices and asst’s, the “bullpen” or cube farm if you prefer is where the brunt of the revenue came from.

If you had a broker with a $100m book and avg. ROI of say 2% ( or 2 mil. ) AND… you had the rest of the pack delivering an avg. of say 500k in ROI, then it made sense to hire as many ppl off the street as could pass the Series 7 Exam! So while you got brow beaten for not being a “corner office guy” the truth is, the rookies drove the majority of the profit for Gordon Gecko. Just one of many ind. specific variables.

Yes, I meant ROA ( my bad )

That will increase take home pay by $36K.
If the economy were booming, yeah. Just hire someone and make more money.

How much NEW business does that business have to generate before the cost of the tax plus the cost of that new employee is covered?

If all it took to increase revenues was to hire more people, then businesses would be hiring new people everyday, and as quickly as possible.. tax increases or no..

Today is not the time to raise the costs of doing business, tax-wise or otherwise.

Joey,

I agree. But as you point out, that is an issue of demand. If the new employee can’t bring in $150K of new revenue, you have to start th analysis from scratch. If the new employee can’t bring in $90K of revenue (my projected variable costs) then the whole thing is completely moot.

Your analysis is far from moot.. The conclusion just doesn’t fit today’s business climate, imo.

Businesses are not in the mood to increase their costs. This economy has forced them to pull in their horns, hunker down and cut costs. Labor is, as always, a huge cost and is very vulnerable.

I’ll confess to outsourcing the programming on exactly one website redesign job. The Indian programmers I worked with were not ready for prime time. They didn’t have the same sense of time urgency as Americans, and, despite the fact that English words were used, effective communication seldom took place.

So, no more outsourcing for me.

So, next time I had a design gig that required the same type of expertise, I found a fabulous programmer who’s deep in the heart of…

…Texas.

My brother-in-law worked with outsourced developers to get his facebook game built, and has had slews of problems because it’s cobbled together, not properly designed. When they start making some money, he plans on hiring some U.S. based programmer to be design lead/Architect for the game/company.

I personally don’t like government paperwork of any stripe to be outsourced to India and China. I’m sorry, i don’t trust them. If a Chinese-made T-shirt falls apart, at least I can see it. But to send W-2 to India so they fill out my tax returns, a la HR Block? No thanks…

has had slews of problems because it’s cobbled together, not properly designed

That’s what I saw with the code that my former employer had outsourced to India (well, to be fair they had an office there - they didn’t hire an outside firm).

Sure, they wrote some “functional” software, but there was no architecture whatsoever. It was a nightmare to modify (I was brought on as a contractor to help with some of the issues), and certainly wasn’t maintainable.

Software isn’t just about writing code. It’s much more complex than that if you’re looking to do it well.

Wait until corporations start trying to enforce patents whose writing they have outsourced to India…..

The full article was as arrogant as all get-out. They basically wrote: how DARE those selfish Americans think about their own unemployment? How dare they not employ US?

You can use food stamps at restaurants?

True OX.

but its so easy today to make changes to the food list, just enter the bar code that is not food stamp eligible.

So processed foods or take out pizza, fried chicken would be declined.

i helped the neighbor with kid next door how to shop….buy everything that is $1.99 a lb, last week london broil this week chicken breasts, next week pork chops or sausages or hamburger and buy 5-6 of each…stuff the freezer with food,not junk.. you should always have some food left over at the end of the month……that’s how my mom told us to shop.

“And NO, denying health care is not an option.”

Why is that?

Do I really have to answer that????

What I’m saying is that if these folks want free food, they don’t get to choose Planet Pizza take-out. If they truly have a jones for pizza, they can go to Government Grocery and buy the ingredients to make it themselves.

Pizza is so cheap to make yourself…..

A 25 lb bag of bread flour can be bought for $8. A 1 lb foil bag of yeast costs about $3. This will make some stupid large number of pizza crusts - say 80 or more.

http://www.annamariavolpi.com/pizza_recipe.html

I add a spoon of brown sugar to the water/yeast starter to get things going….

Has anyone here ever made pizza in a solar oven?

Frozen pizza is even cheaper.

Has anyone here ever made pizza in a solar oven?

Slim!

“As many as 500 people gather each year for an annual potluck near Tucson. They eat vegetables, bread, pie and lasagna – typical foods at many such gatherings. This potluck, however, is vastly different from most because all the food, even the pizza, is cooked on-location by the sun”

Arizona Solar Center

Has anyone here ever made pizza in a solar oven?

(Pardon me. I think I misunderstood the question…)

I call BS on the asteroid impact thing.

“Astronomer Alan Harris has made that calculation. Allowing for the number of Earth-crossing asteroids — the kind that can hit us because their orbits around the Sun intersect ours — as well as how much damage they can do (which depends on their size), he calculated that any person’s lifetime odds of being killed by an asteroid impact are about 1 in 700,000.”

Link

“On the other hand this article puts the odds of death by terrorist based on historical casualties at 1 in 9.3 million”

(Sorry for the copy-pasta - I can’t do math like Polly)

Bad astronomy. Again - he’s assuming that we won’t do anything about an asteroid that would have a significant impact (either not detect it, or if detected not be able to divert it). There are already significant programs in place for detection, and you’d better believe if one was detected programs would be put in place to stop it. Detection is such that it would be years before it actually impacted.

And B.S. also on the 1 in 9.3 million odds. 2,996 were killed on 9/11 alone. That one incident alone makes the odds 1 in 100,000 just in the U.S. within the past 10 years, let alone over a life time. That doesn’t include the 168 killed Oklahoma City, the thousands killed in attacks in Iraq and Afghanistan, etc. etc. Dollars to donuts whoever came up with that stat (the article gives no clue how it was calculated) used worldwide population stats, but only a very small portion of worldwide terror attacks. I note that the stat originates from sometime before 2003. (Originally the stat is from a Februrary 2003 Conde Nast article, which I’m guessing may have even used/referenced pre-2001 stats)

——————
he calculated that any person’s lifetime odds of being killed by an asteroid impact are about 1 in 700,000.”
—————–
There are 300mm people in the US, so this year apparently 428 people are going to be killed by an asteroid impact this year. That would make a total of 428 people killed by asteriods in the world in total recorded history. During that same period 2000 people in the world will die from a terrorist attack.

That’s absolutely terrible math, and basically worthless.

For single-type ‘black swan’ (i hate that term) events, it’d be better to use a financial NPV method rather than some statistically-correct but mathematically suspect formula to imagine the world being destroyed by an asteroid at some point in the future, and then dividing the total earth population by the number of years before it hits.

Bad astronomy. Again - he’s assuming that we won’t do anything about an asteroid that would have a significant impact

How does his assumptions about our willingness (or ability) to interdict a planet-killing event equate to “bad astronomy”?

But indulge me. Can you point out the specific holes in this?

“1) A big asteroid is rare, but one bigger than about 10 km across would kill everyone, all 6 billion of us. That skews the odds. If one of those hit every 100 million years, then your lifetime odds of dying in an impact is 100 million years divided by 70 years = 1 in 1.5 million.

“A small impact might happen 1000x more often (every 100,000 years), but might only kill 1/1000th as many people, so the odds are roughly the same. Weird.

“2) We are lousy at understanding low probability events. I know that 1 in 700,000 is a ridiculously low probability, but it’s hard to grasp. As a comparison, you’re more likely to die in a fireworks accident. But what’s funny is, this is a slightly higher chance than being killed by a terrorist! Despite propaganda to the contrary, the odds of any given person being killed by a terrorist attack are incredibly low. While terrorist attacks in the long run are a near certainty, the odds of you getting killed are very low.

“It’s like the lottery: someone wins every time (eventually), but chances are it won’t be you.”

And B.S. also on the 1 in 9.3 million odds. 2,996 were killed on 9/11 alone

I’m not that good at math and statistics, but doesn’t that equate to .001 percent of the US population killed by (Islamic) terrorists per year?

If you divide that by 10 it’s lower, right?

Could it be thy get the 9.3M by dividing 8 billion by whatever percentage of the world’s population has been killed per year so far by terrorists, not just the US?

My head hurts…

I always clean out the lint trap, but the story inspired me to remove the trap and get into the areas underneath where lint also builds up. And there was a lot of it to remove, glad I did it. I bought the thing used, no one had ever cleaned it.

Don’t forget the vent itself to the outside, in some cases. Some older vents used the accordion-style venting, which is bad since lint can collect in there, and the subsequent heat start a fire.

A lot.

Seriously. Many people aren’t qualified to operate a doorknob or know not to smoke at the gas pump.

A lot.

“I did like it, though.”

No, I’m not a masochist. Jeebus. I really must make stronger cawfee. I meant I liked the solar heater, not burning the crap outta myself with the water.

That’s not what the solar installer told the building inspector.

Anyway, I have gas hot water, heat and cooking stove, and solar electric. The only thing I’m afraid of is someone walking off with a gas burner on.

We just replaced our stove, and could have gone electric, because we generate some excess solar panel which we donate to the grid for free. But my wife prefers a gas stove.

Next generation solar panels may someday generate enough power to allow solar hot water as well (we don”t have enough room on the room for electric and hot water, as we live in a rowhouse and half the roof is shaded by a street tree). But more than half our power use, best as I can calculate it, is heat.

I was thinking solar electric, of course… a bank of batteries. Some appliances need high, ‘normal” voltage and current so an inverter is wired into the system, jacking the voltage up to 120V or whatever.

PV electric might be even more dangerous than the power grid lines because people are unaware.
If there’s a fire, firemen might cut the main power but not know about the solar system…

WT:

How much did it cost to install and how much is your con ed bill?

This is what we should be spending money on the next generation of cells that would be 10X more efficient….could solve lots of problems especially with employment since they are labor intensive to install.

Oh great news the 2nd ave subway is delayed about another year due to “unexpected” underground piping from residential building have to be moved

Plus hundreds will be evicted from rent stabilized buildings due to entrances and ventilation shafts.

Solar PV can be dangerous as H*%#. Take
6V deep cycle batteries and hook up in series
to get 48V before the inverter. One big
inverter (135lbs), 5.5KW pure sine wave, takes a lot of 48v DC. It can kill you. We
have massive disconnects to pull sections
our of the system. You do not screw around.

It can kill you.

15 milliamps can kill you.

Rancher,

Well I had no idea! There’s more to you than ropin’ & ridin’ after all!

Yes, this is why the school is over a year.

Electrocution is another problem with hybrid/electric cars. After a crash the rescuers have to spend lots of time making sure that exposed portions of the car aren’t hot. Plus makes using the “jaws of life” risky.

DennisN,

Interesting point. I don’t suppose they can just come in and start dumping -water- on a Charlie Class fire either? Why don’t you just hit me w/ a stun gun?

IIRC the main bus voltage in a Prius is 480V.

Well if you kept the mains voltage below 32 volts there would be no electrocution hazard. My alt electric all runs 12 v to the inverter. Shrot runs, so I don’t have to fuss about the larger wire.

Why I’ve had 32 volts hooked up to my testicles and you don’t see ME complaining! All in day’s work.

No seriously, my Marshall Amp has several 500 VDC capacitors and there’s a multi-step process to assure they’re fully discharged before sticking your hands in there! In addition I rec. using something NON-conductive like a pencil etc. to attach the alligator clip!

Remove wedding band and watch* Guys, I’ve been shocked so many times I’ve become hyper-sensitive about it. I can walk across a lobby and jump start a garden tiller.

a pencil has a core of graphite.. not exactly a non-conductor.

15 milliamps can kill you.

True dat. It ain’t the volts, it’s the amps.

Static ‘lectricity can be over 50,000 volts, but it’s only microamps in current.

Riding and roping? Sheeesh son, you forgot the sailor, pilot, fisherman, tinker, and spy.
Uups, shouldn’t forget a power monkey too.

You see WT, this is the way to get millions of people working asap….its labor intensive work…and look at the benefits of retrofitting 50-100 million homes.

I just want a nice solar panel on my ford escort for $500 and buy a tank of gas every year…

where are you supposed to put the dead hookers?

In the passenger seat, so you can use the HOV lane.

Duh!

Most prostitutes in Brazil wish they were not. As Brazil progresses, less will be.

As America regresses, more will be.

This is part of the future that income and wealth inequality lead to.

It has made me ‘unusually uncertain’ about how long it will take the housing market to bottom out.

In Colorado:

I don’t dispute what you say, but the subject of the conversation was the following:

What are the basic functions of government?

Good link. Thanks, eco.

Your enthusiasm has failed to convince me…

Whether you agree with the fact has no bearing on it.

There are a little over 300 million people in the US, so with average occupancy around 2.5 (WAG) that would make it 120 million dwelling units. That would make those 18.9 million empty units about 16% of the total.

So all we need are 19 million new households with non-menial incomes to soak up th excess.

So all we need are 19 million new households with non-menial incomes to soak up th excess.

What we’ll get is 19M houses priced at 1X menial-income. Then, only 7.6 million menial-people will be needed, because they can safely afford to buy somewhere around 2.5 houses each.

“How many dwelling units (houses, townhouses, condos, apartments) are there in the U.S.?”

Housing units, 2009 = 129,925,421

“What percent of the total does that 18.9 million represent?”

(18,900,000/129,925,421)*100 = 14.5 percent.

“What we’ll get is 19M houses priced at 1X menial-income”

McMansions going for 20K?

The PTB will have the surplus bulldozed before allowing that to happen.

I’ve been thinking about the super bubbly places that haven’t burst (SF, NYC, DC).

Of course these cities have always been and will always be more expensive than flyover cities, but currently there has not really been any real capitulation…

…how much of this might be due to the serious income inequality in these wealthier cities?

Are we moving toward a situation where a small minority owns most of the property and everyone else rents from them?

Just a thought. Whaddya think?

Can’t you imagine a scenario where they would allow it to happen… or perhaps one where they could not avoid it happening, or would even celebrate it happening?

The vacancy number will never be 0%.

Census has data on this going back to 1965 - http://www dot census dot gov/hhes/www/housing/hvs/historic/index.html.

Check out Table 7.

The vacancy rate has ranged from about 8-14% over that time frame, but has generally been increasing. Pick a number between 8% and 14% to get to where we need to end up…I pick 11%. So, we need to deal with absorbing 3.5% of ~130MM homes, or about 5 million homes.

Jobs, jobs, jobs, household formation, household formation, household formation…

McMansions going for 20K?

The PTB will have the surplus bulldozed before allowing that to happen.

I don’t see that happening here in Vegas. There are miles and miles of McManses piled row upon row. No idea what percentage are vacant, but based on personal observation, it’s probably quite a few.

The question being, how could they go about just bulldozing the vacant ones?*

I suppose if the PTB construct greenbelts on all the vacant lots…

(*A few more ‘accidental’ gas main explosions?)

“…how much of this might be due to the serious income inequality in these wealthier cities?”

Is this a trick question?

CDS were often used as a means to limit one’s reserve requirements. However, once everyone took on everyone else’s risk, the rationale for their existence became null (i.e., your risk of default was often just replaced by someone else’s) and yet the reserve requirements were avoided. Eventually they degraded into a gamble on the expection of an unrelated entity’s default rather than serving much of a legitimate purpose.

That’s easy when you are saying nothing sane.

That’s easy when you are saying nothing sane.

Not having to please an electorate is a great factor as well, I would imagine.

Make sure you steal his glasses!

I can’t explain how awesome it is to have some 30 pound toddler jump you and ‘wrestle you down’ to the ground while laughing hysterically. I wouldn’t have believed it if someone had tried to explain it to me.

As opposed to the emptiness of most Republican’s craniums?

why does everything have to be comparative? Why can’t one simply analyze and critique an individual person, rather than have it turn into “oh, but this other person’s worse!!”

My man George W. didn’t have to look you in the eye, he only had to open his mouth.

Now when old Hillary looks you in the eye, your spine freezes.

Variety is the spice…

The other guy started it!!!!!!!!

Sorry if the truth hurts.

As a former longtime Republican, I continue to trying to explain to everyone I know that they need to clean house in their own parties before they go blaming the “other guys”.

Unfortunately, EVERY Republican I know (and I know a lot of them) continue to blame things on sub-prime borrowers. that Obama is not a legitimate President, that tax cuts will fix everything, etc. etc.

Not a peep about how the nation would be best served by throwing a bunch of Wall Street banksters in jail, that the answer to bad government oversight is no oversight at all, throwing the kids under the bus is self-destructive eventually, etc……….no it’s all about “tax cuts, and “shrinking government”, and getting rid of the “freeloaders”, aka “The answer to all our problems”

No questions at all about what that society may end up looking like. That maybe we have complicated and large bureacracies, because we have a large and complicated society.

I’m if the opinion that a bunch of these bureaucracies were formed for a good reason, and that you don’t trash them without good reason, but that’s just me……

Whenever I saw G W Bush’s eyes on TV, I could hear the Jaws music playing and and old Quint saying:

“And, you know, the thing about a shark… he’s got lifeless eyes. Black eyes. Like a doll’s eyes”

Yikes…

X-GSfixr

Sucks being a moderate, doesn’t it? Doesn’t win me a lot of friends either. But you know the old saying, with friends like those…

Analyzing complex systems with ever changing interrelationships is just too much rocket surgery for most people who…

Hey! Isn’t that Dancing With The Stars!

Sorry if the truth hurts.

I don’t have a dog in this fight. I just see this sh*t over and over, and it lowers the level of discourse such that it’s not even worth talking/listening any more.

Imagine if any time your significant other, boss, etc, raised a complaint, you got defensive and attacked them, rather than listening and evaluating the complaint on its merits….

Would you have a relationship/job anymore? No.

But for some reason, that approach is okay when it comes to politics on the internet. Ugh.

X-GSfxr,

Very most excellent post, describes me pretty much to the t. It’s just that in today’s world, when you’re standing there w/ jaw agape by the sheer amount of BS someone is trying to feed you, they quickly seize the opportunity to feed you some more!

I think drumminj has an excellent point as well. No J, we DON’T know what you “make” ( and frankly it’s not only none of our business but extremely RUDE to imply that we ‘do’? )

With attitudes like these, it’s small wonder we never get anywhere as a nation. I keep wanting to shout out to the extremists on either end “That last post, really WON me over! I know you’ve done about a million and avg. about 25% of the posts on any given day for the… last 7 years or so, but that LAST ONE set me straight! I’ll be seeing things ‘your’ way from here on out!”

I mean give me a break. In particular, liberals have been trying to convert us moderates for years as we’re the most accessible. Since that’s utterly failed and only served to alientate us, now they’re going with the cattle prod. Just, enough already!

When I moved about 10 years ago, I got to see some of the so called “welfare queens” up close. (Lower-middle class/blue collar area, with a lot of alcohol and drug abusers). Yeah, the parents are fooked up. It’s their kids that I felt for. A lot of them wouldn’t get a decent meal, if it wasn’t for government assistance of some kind or other. (And, if you’ve checked out school lunches lately, they aren’t anything to write home about).

Most of them have no positive male role models at all, so I sorta ended up as one by default. One is in college for flight training, and two of them are A&Ps (unfortunately, unemployed……welcome to the club)

God knows, I tried to talk them into being Hedge fund managers/Robber Barons, because that is where the money is…….

clean house in their own parties before they go blaming the “other guys”

There lies a problem. Why do you assume that anybody who criticize the O is a republican. I share your disgust with the republican party. Obama gets criticism now because he is the president and his party controls the both houses. The other party is irrelevant and I hope it stays that way for a long time.

I voted for him (first Democrat I ever voted for), because not being entrenched in Washington for years, I thought maybe he was “different”. (Silly me). Knew it when he started nominating all the usual Democratic hacks to fill his cabinet.

Obama is the puppy who keeps chasing the garbage truck, and doesn’t know what to do, now that he’s caught it.

But even knowing what I know now, I still wouldn’t vote for McCain/Wasilla Barbie.

X:

How any of them could read write and speak English? I’ll bet not many from my time doing High school dances about that time. I can imagine how much worse it is today.

I see forcing your lower-middle blue collar people into English classes way before you should demand they go to a back to work program, in order to keep their benefits.

When I moved about 10 years ago, I got to see some of the so called “welfare queens” up close. (Lower-middle class/blue collar area, with a lot of alcohol and drug abusers). Yeah, the parents are fooked up.

“Now when old Hillary looks you in the eye, your spine freezes.”

What of the rest of your body? I’m guessing it turns to stone, but that is speculation.