The Housing Bubble

Hey I voted for John Anderson in 1980 and Ross Perot in 1994. Count me in as a voter!

A moratorium on the phrase “make no mistake” used in Obama’s speeches would be refreshing.

A moratorium on the phrase “make no mistake” used in Obama’s speeches would be refreshing.

Let me be clear: I agree with you, pressboardbox.

the same for “let me be clear”

the same for “let me be clear”

I’d also like to see an end to the pauses that

obviously seem to

happen whenever the President

reaches the end of

a line in his teleprompter.

he needs

the extra time

to motion

his hands for

precise emphasis

Among my acquaintances is a lady who has been a speech coach for many politicians, including several Presidents of the United States. Her name is Lillian Brown.

She was the speech coach who worked with Bill Clinton during his 1992 campaign. Clinton, as you recall, has a problem with losing his voice. Frequently. She taught him how to use his voice properly so that he could keep going on the campaign trail.

If there were some way of putting her in touch with Obama, oh, boy, do I wish it could happen. He needs help with his presentation.

Not just the mid-sentence pauses while reading from the prompter, but in speaking with out of the center of his mouth. Maybe it’s because of his left-handedness, but he tends to favor the whole left side of his face when speaking.

My mother’s a left-hander too, so, next time I see her, I’ll watch how she speaks. Mom is extremely left-handed.

OTOH, Obama is not the lectern-pounder that Clinton was, and that’s good. He also has a better relationship with proper grammar and pronunciation that GW Bush did.

i read somewhere that obama (The Dear Golfer) was given special training in phonetics to appear honest and forthright in his speech. he was groomed to campaign.

(don’t know it’s true or not)

he was groomed to campaign.

They *all* are groomed to campaign. Candidate grooming has been going on for decades.

And presidential image consciousness has been with us since the days of George Washington.

Begging the (rhetorical) question - is this spending growth therefore sustainable?

Only if they get to live free forever. I used to think that was impossible.

Maybe this new moratorium/bad signatures is part of a larger conspiracy, as the banks have run out of ways to keep the flood of foreclosures off the market.

And what happens once the banks realize that they’re out of ideas?

Well, the NPR Planet Money people have come to an end of their mortgage backed security (named “Trixie” by the listeners). They bought her for approximately $1000 which was 1% of face value. They declared her dead when, I guess, the payments coming in were so few and far between that the servicer stopped passing any payments through to the owners. (I’m guessing that a few people may still have been paying but all the cash was going to the servicer for its fees.) They received between $400 and $500 since they bought her. The person who helped them pick her out (and who also bought bonds from the same pool) is now suing for securities fraud (disclosure did not accurately describe the loans in the pool). As a matter of fact, I believe he helped them pick the bond based on the idea that there would likely be a cause for a civil fraud suit once the bonds were dead.

The value is based on so many things. Exactly what loans are in the pool. Who owns them? Are they still paying? Do they have reasons to keep paying even if the loans are way underwater? Are they in a recourse state? If they are, is it worth the cost of litigation to go after their other assets? Do they have any assets that aren’t protected from suit (401K, IRA, etc.)? What is the value of the asset? Did the securitizer and servicer jump through the hoops needed to make sure the bond holders have a provable right to foreclose now, or is it going to take 6 months of work to fix it? Does the servicer even have an obligation under the servicing agreement to fix all this stuff? I could go on, but you get the idea. Valuing these things the way a forensic accountant would based on the expected income you can get out of the pool involves so much work, you wouldn’t ever do it. The market price is the only good price and the banks aren’t required to use it. The book value (what they paid) is a terrible value and nearly as deceptive as you can get, but I believe it is the one they are using right now.

Personally, if you wanted the banks not to all immediately go under, I would have preferred actually doing the mark-to-market numbers, but allowing a lot of them to simply violate their reserve requirements for a period of time. That is a terrible option, but it shouldn’t have created a bank run as long as FDIC is solvent, and it at least has SOME transparency. Carrying this stuff at book value is just awful. The only justification for it is if you thought the MBS price collapse was temporary and would be coming back quickly. Worked for the ones who were able to “lend” to the Fed at book value, but other than that….not so much. It was a big glop of, “You can’t handle the truth.” I took Money, Banking and Financial Markets at the b-school when I was in law school. It was a long time ago. Professor Mishkin didn’t cover this.

Longish response, pending in the spam queue

Thanks for the great response.

On this point:

Personally, if you wanted the banks not to all immediately go under, I would have preferred actually doing the mark-to-market numbers, but allowing a lot of them to simply violate their reserve requirements for a period of time. That is a terrible option, but it shouldn’t have created a bank run as long as FDIC is solvent, and it at least has SOME transparency.

That hits on what my solution to the financial crisis would have been (assuming no control over the bubble itself). I would have perhaps jacked up FDIC limits (a necessary evil) to help prevent runs and required complete mark-to-market as you mention. However I’m not sure I would have allowed them to violate reserve requirements. Let them go under, and let the taxpayers pick up the tab via FDIC bailout. At least then the money is going directly to the people who have the accounts, not being filtered, held, and siphoned by the weak financial hands (but strong political hands) as it is now.

Nothing like liquidation to provide transparency. Seems to me anyhow.

I suspect that with toxie, there have been sufficient foreclosures that they know that EVEN IF every borrower remaining gets current and stays current they know with certainty that that particular tranche won’t get anything. ISTR that there was a considerable gap between the last payment that they received and the bond being officially declared “dead.” Certainly SOME bonds constructed from the underlying loans are still getting payments. But with the re-pooling and re-tranching that goes on with some of those CDSs a bond can go from “getting payments” to “never going to see another dime” much more quickly than the aggregate totals for the underlying loans.

And of course the problem with mark to market is that the bonds are “thinly traded” because there usually AREN’T all that many identical bonds.

Thanks for the correction, Jim. Toxie, not Trixie. And for pointing out that their particular bond may be dead not just because remaining payments are going for servicing fees, but also because they are going to bond holders with more senior tranches of the pool.

Does the owner of the MBS have ownership rights to the collateral when debtor defaults?

Blue sky–It is my understanding that it is the servicer’s duty to foreclose and pass the proceeds on. I’m unclear whether the servicer or the creator of the bonds is the one charged with calculating exactly which bonds get paid off early with the money.

No idea. I’m afraid I’m not an accountant. I just have to interact with a lot of them at work. Not being one means that when I try to track this stuff, I concentrate on the concepts, not the details like the number assigned to the rules. If I tried to do that - pretended to be able to talk about things using the insider shorthand - I would embarrass myself much too quickly.

When you walk past fifty
Hold your head up high
And don’t be afraid of the dark.
At the end of the job
Is a pinken slip
And you’ll think not working is a lark.

Walk on through the wind,
Walk on through the rain,
Tho’ your dreams be tossed and blown.
Walk on, walk on
With hope in your heart
And you’ll never work again,
You’ll never work again.

This family will no doubt blame all their problems on the banks and Washington.

lol Dennis

Yeah, my first response would be, “When you can show me the paperwork proving you hold my mortgage, I’ll take your blustering letter seriously. Until then, **** off.”

+1 Sammy

I kind of like that one.

re: “Prove you own my mortgage”

Not meaning to nitpick, but the mortgage is recorded in the public records. It’s the note they’re having a hard time finding.

No, in America fiscal restraint happens when one can’t get any more credit.

You owe me a keyboard for that one Combo.

“For example, the posted prices on a dozen eggs has gone up substantially, but it seems that someone has them on sale for 99 cents every week.”

You must have better stores than we do. Its very rare to see a dozen eggs that low out here, and when we do they are the tiny ones.

The local Paul’s chain near Boise often has 18 large eggs for $1.

“cherry pick the loss-leaders”

Perfect description.

That’s the new “retirement” lifestyle. Cherry pick the loss-leaders AND buy markdowns right before the expiration dates.

Oh, and I also think that higher posted prices are a strategy to get people thinking that it is what the “real” regular price is supposed to be so that prices can be adjusted somewhat upwards.

I’m in the apparel biz, and places like Kohl’s plan on their final selling price to be discounted off the selling price. It’s gravy if someone pays the tagged price, but they get their planned profit margin when it is sold on one of their frequent % off sales. Gives people the illusion they’ve gotten a deal and an incentive to buy during that particular “sale”.

My experience of Kohls is that the quality is so bad that the sale price should be the regular price. But that’s my feeling about most stores. It carries some items at the same price as Macy’s, which to me is strange.

Speaking of Macy’s, I shopped for a Dyson vacuum cleaner at the weekend, thinking I could use one of my discount coupons. Turns out their cleaner was $50 more than any other store and it was marked on sale! I hope this was a mistake, so for now I’m giving them the benefit of the doubt and going to Walmart to buy the same one for $347.

Check Consumer Reports first. A vacuum cleaner is the sort of thing their testing protocols evaluates really well. Maybe there is a better one than the Dyson out there for half the cost….

CO, that’s what I see too. Local stores have as good a pricing as Walmart. But I generally see food prices higher, all around the map.

Some times WalMart is cheaper than Sam’s Club.

Malt-o-meal breakfast cereal is cheaper at WalMart than the Kelloggs and Post brand stuff they sell at Sams.

We still have our Sam’s membership but only use it for select items like TP, paper towers, juice, steaks (unless they’re on sale at the grocery stores, which is pretty rare and usually only includes rib eyes with bones.). There are some items that are way cheaper at Sam’s still: Near East rice pilaf mix, 6 for $3.

But shopping has become a game. Like the already mentioned “find chicken breasts on sale” which is rarer and rarer.

But wheat is far from alone. In his recent column entitled “An Inflationary Cocktail In The Making“, Richard Benson listed many of the other commodities that have seen extraordinary price increases over the past year….

*Agricultural Raw Materials: 24%

*Industrial Inputs Index: 25%

*Metals Price Index: 26%

*Coffee: 45%

*Barley: 32%

*Oranges: 35%

*Beef: 23%

*Pork: 68%

*Salmon: 30%

*Sugar: 24%

*Wool: 20%

*Cotton: 40%

*Palm Oil: 26%

*Hides: 25%

*Rubber: 62%

*Iron Ore: 103%

Now, as those price increases enter the chain of production do you think that there is any chance that they will not cause inflation?

Do you think there is any chance at all that producers and retailers will not pass those costs on to consumers?

It is time to face facts.

Those cost increases are going to filter all the way through the system and your paycheck is soon not going to stretch nearly as far.

Inflation is coming.

correct Polly. this is the very beginning of entering 3rd world status. soon products whose price can’t be lowered and most americans can’t afford, will disappear from the shelves. in a while, little more than the necessities will even be on the shelves.

that’s the price of government intervention in the market.

the scary thing is that it can get much worse if FED allows a complete dollar collapse by continuing to keep interest rates low. if they rates rates, at least we will have a dollar to work with in recovery. if they don’t…

should be written: “if they raise rates”

Wouldn’t products that people can’t afford remain on the shelves??

when the products stop selling, the stores will stop stocking them.

tj, I think we have a long way to go before having few consumer goods available in the US gets us to third world levels.

We are talking “not as many dozens of choices for summer purses at Macy’s,” not “canned string beans or no vegetables until next month.” We’ll manage.

“We are talking “not as many dozens of choices for summer purses at Macy’s,” not “canned string beans or no vegetables until next month.” We’ll manage.”

Agreed. Perhaps being less addicted to disposable stuff will be a happy by-product.

But I predict withdrawal symptoms that include a lot of whining.

I have European friends who have a LOT less stuff…
For example, she has a small wardrobe of high-quality clothes that are well cared for classics. Last time they were in the US, She couldn’t find anything she wanted to buy except jeans and shoes. I know he’s had the same backpack / book bag for over a decade.

They think our overstuffed homes are ridiculous.

hi Polly,

you may be entirely right about how far we have to go. i don’t know how far it will go, only that it is beginning. what happens in the future will depend on what we do in the coming days as much as what was done in the past.

nor can i say how fast it will happen for the same reasons. but i’m certain that we’re on the wrong path. how and when we will get off it, (if we get off it) no one can say.

i only say that we’re beginning to enter third world status. we of course are not near ‘being’ third world yet. we are just on the path..

“They think our overstuffed homes are ridiculous.”

Because they are.

the dollars are coming back as investments in US Treasuries so the federal government has access to cheap dollars

Exactly the point I was making the other day. I think the government should invest this money in projects of long-term benefit (improved electric grid, internet, alternative energy projects, etc), that would put people to work right now, and still give us something useful when it’s done.

The idea that everything the government invests in is a waste is simply not true- the highway system, the internet, Hoover Dam, the TVA- there are many examples of government-funded projects that have been quite (sometimes wildly) successful. And our infrastructure is a mess anyway, so there’s no question that money would be well spent.

We’re already investing that money in government operations, and in paying back LAST years bonds. It’s the second part that bodes ill.

Do I pay rent this month or rather put food on the table? I guess its time to dumpster dive again…

Of course these choices can quickly morph into
Do I break into my neighbors house to put food on the table.
Do I mug that nice lady walking down the street to put food on teh table.
Do I start running drugs to put food on the table.

The elite will/have walled themselves off in compounds the rest will face the mob.

Ah yes, Munger.

Yeah, it’s going to be a squeeze alright - but there is an opportunity here for this society to start the process of reprioritizing - and the probably the best place to start is with housing. Housing needs to lose the manufactured mythical allure it acquired in the postwar period. This squeeze can be the catalyst but that kind of sea change can only come from the people, not the state.

Do I pay rent this month or rather put food on the table?

I don’t know a single person in this position. We have 43 Million people on government food programs that last time I looked. Most load their baskets with twinkies, meat, icecream, fried potatoe crisps, and piles of junk. Most are grossly overweight. They don’t need more food, and they don’t pay their rent because they would rather buy crack or meth or a caseload of malt liquor everyday.

It sounds like the kind of media propaganda like i saw earlier today about the racist predatory lending. Typical Reuters crap.

You say “twinkies” like it’s a bad thing.

no. of course not. it’s nature’s perfect food. And for all the survivalists out there, they have a shelf life which is beyond measurable. I am thinking of stocking up a couple of cases so I can have a regular sugar and preservative boost during the hard times ahead.

What exactly do you mean by “nature”?

I happen to know 2 people in Miami that actually work for a living ($10 a day ‘cos they get paid under the table) and are homeless. They do get food stamps but that sucks if you don’t have a fridge to keep your food. Maybe you should take a close look at older unemployed people that don’t have kids. As long as you can play the “kid trump” you can usually score some assistance, if you’re single no so much.

Screw food stamps. The government should give out packs of ramen noodles, that’s it.

I know a small businessman that was looking at some pretty scary days. He lost his clients one by one and then something weird happened w/the largest one he lost last. That’s a story unto itself that was a damn shame. Other people’s sins boomeranged to take out collateral innocents (so the story goes from people inside at the large client.)

In any case the owners of the small business kept their workers on the payroll probably way longer than they should have. They’re good guys w/big hearts. Luckily one owner had just majorly downsized to a piece of property that was far enough outside the city to be purchased for a song. His beautiful cottage was nicely done but very humble in size, teeny actually. But I know things got real real tough for a while. His wife still worked but his small bus was the big income for them. Now he’s working for his neighbor for probably a fraction of his previous income. I could see this guy not collecting. He’s a doer, a problem solver, not a hanger on.

Want to get your house painted? Want to get your house cleaned? Want to get your car washed?

These are all services and the prices for these services are coming down everywhere.

“Checked tuition prices recently?”

The various subsidies for tuitions are being removed. The COST of higher education is actually falling; The PRICE of it is rising. That’s because the BUFFER between COST and PRICE is being removed.

“How about health care services?”

Again, the BUFFER between cost and price is being removed which means more of the cost is being passed on to the patient.

I notice that in tuition and health care example, the PROFIT doesn’t seem to be falling at all; and I think that’s the crux of the matter.

Again, the BUFFER between cost and price is being removed which means more of the cost is being passed on to the patient.

And we’re seeing evidence that patients are cutting back on health care spending. Which suggests that, maybe-just-maybe, some of our health care spending isn’t so necessary after all.

Want to get your house painted?

We had our house painted just over a year ago. I really had to look hard to find someone who would do it for a reasonable price. Everyone I called pulled up in a shiny brand new F-350 Diesel and quoted 6-7K to paint the house.

I did not give up and asked around. Eventually I found a guy who did it (all by himself, no illegals) for 3K. Did nice work too, the prep work was well done.

Same story with the roof. We discovered a leak and I called around. The prima donnas all wanted to charge me just to look at the roof. After looking around I found an old timer to didn’t charge me an inspection fee and fixed a bunch of things for $500.

But in both cases I really had to look around to find these guys. Either the prima donnas are still finding plenty of suckers, or they’re just being stubborn with their rates. I guess when you get used to a six figure income for doing manual labor it’s hard to let it go, no matter what the handwriting on the wall says.

Want to get your car washed?

Prices at the local car washes, both full service and the automated ones at the gas stations are higher than ever in my neck of the woods. It costs $7 at the gas stations, so I wash them myself at home on the weekends (its kind of therapeutic in a zen kind of way).

I’m not seeing this deflation you keep talking about. At least not in the goods and services I purchase on a regular basis. Maybe TVs are cheaper, but I already have two.

You are right, Slim. Some of my patients who insisted on seeing me every four months even though I recommended once a year suddenly decided that once a year was just fine. That’s one good thing about managed care - HMO patients would have to pay for more frequent visits, while patients with traditional insurance could do whatever they wanted, at least as far as office visits.

I wanted to say something in response to posters who complain about illegals getting free care. Illegals are ineligible for Medicare, Medicaid, MediCal, and can’t get in to a doctors office without a doctor’s referral and paying cash. I have a few farm workers in my practice, and they all pay cash, except for those who need to see me after a work-related injury (workers comp pays.)

Of course, anybody with a serious illness or injury or in labor will be admitted via an emergency room. But I’ve only operated on one illegal that I know of - an undiagnosed young diabetic farm worker who fell on his face in a pile of dirt and developed rhinocerebral mucormycosis (fungus invades the eye and brain through the nose in the immune suppressed.) Unfortunately I saved his life and he looks like this.

http://abyssaldepths.files.wordpress.com/2008/04/mucormycosis-2.jpg

You are right, Slim. Some of my patients who insisted on seeing me every four months even though I recommended once a year suddenly decided that once a year was just fine. That’s one good thing about managed care - HMO patients would have to pay for more frequent visits, while patients with traditional insurance could do whatever they wanted, at least as far as office visits.

REHobbyist, I’m the type who gets terrified of the very idea of even calling to make an appointment. So, insisting on seeing you every four months would be very out of character.

Our relationship would be more like you coaxing me in for one visit a year, and, even then, you’d have to be very reassuring.

Where this came from: I had a lot of bad experiences with doctors when I was a toddler, and that fear never left me. So, to all of the medicos on this board, be prepared to do some industrial-strength calming of Slim. I really am that scared of doctors.

You sound like my ideal patient, Slim. But that’s because you have common sense. The people who want to come in more frequently than I recommend are nervous nellies or hypochondriacs. And I can’t stop them - they call the receptionist and say that they’re having a frightening symptom. But, as I say, there are a lot fewer of them now that the economy is bad.

Doctors in general are a lot nicer nowadays than they were in the bad old days when they didn’t have to explain anything to people.

Frankly, you sound healthy. If you start having any worrisome symptoms, then you should see a primary care doctor. If you have some hereditary problems like glaucoma, hypertension, hyperlipidemia or certain types of cancer, you might consider being tested for them because waiting until you have symptoms might be too late.

I’ll bet you had childhood ear infections, right Slim? They had to hold you down so he could examine them.

Doctors in general are a lot nicer nowadays than they were in the bad old days when they didn’t have to explain anything to people.

As stressed out as I am around them, I notice that too.

I’ll bet you had childhood ear infections, right Slim? They had to hold you down so he could examine them.

Not so much ear as respiratory.

The thing that really got me into my present phobic state was having to get some shot, being told that it wouldn’t hurt a bit, and it hurt like hell.

Attention medical people, if it’s going to hurt, just say so. Don’t lie. Especially when it’s a child.

There. I feel better. (Who knew that the HBB could be therapeutic?)

fungus invades the eye and brain through the nose in the immune suppressed.) Unfortunately I saved his life and he looks like this.”

yikes !! I read in the paper a kid who was being treated for Cancer get that kind of infection, it stated with a orange ooze out of the corner of his eye.

took out his nose.

Depends on the surgery. Training is pretty uniform in the U.S. You want the best if you have a bad brain tumor or a serious complication. But if you need a fracture repaired, your tonsils or gallbladder removed, or a lumpectomy, I’d recommend going with whomever is on your insurance plan to save money. I’m a superspecialist, and often I see someone for a second or third opinion who wants “the best”. If they’re referred by a specialist because of special complexity, I do the surgery. If it’s routine and they tell me that it will cost them thousands more for me to do the surgery, I send them back.

Do you really think countries like Canada, France, and Germany have inferior doctors compared to the US?

True- you don’t see many yanks in Greece, particularly not in the islands (one of the many things I like about them). I wonder if Europeans are traveling less due to the warnings.

Oops! Monday morning typing fingers did it again.

I meant to say “might be worth enforcing.”

That’s not an arguement.

I’m not saying life in Cuba is great, or that I wouldn’t get on a boat for the US if I lived there.

I’m saying they have an effective medical care system and posted facts that support it.

Fair enough. Just trying to provide some context.

You cannot use absolute dollars for comparison anyways as there are different cost structures, but instead, perhaps, percentage of budget spent on health care in each nation.

If you look at the obesity rates in the US, they are astronomical and rising. Heart disease tracks right along with them. I was in Mississippi not long ago. They had syringe disposal boxes in the restroom. Why. The highest diabetic rate in the nation.

Back when I was doing post-Katrina reconstruction in MS, I noticed this too.

I think that the root cause of the problem is the local diet, which could be summarized as Breaded and Fried Everything. Talk about a diet that would be guaranteed to put weight on you.

Add this to the very hot and humid weather for a good part of the year, and you have a motivation NOT to go outside and exercise.

I can’t disagree with you there. I think one of the smartest health moves would be to eliminate the Iowa primaries for Presidential elections. No candidate can’t get past Iowa without shoveling gobs of money into high-fructose corn syrup.

I believe it’s not a coincidence that the increased use of high-fructose corn syrup (and cheap carbs in general), the introduction of the computer, the entrance of women into the workforce with the concomitant rise of SUV-chauffeured organized sports, and the rise of obesity all began in the same 1975-1985 time period.

30% OBESITY. That’s the problem.

It occurred to me recently (being in my 50’s) that many people may have grown up with the idea that McDonald’s for breakfast, Taco Bell for lunch and KFC for dinner is perfectly normal.

When I was a kid, these things were “treats”, not “meals”.

Also, although I drink about three Cokes a week, I have never purchased a liter of any type of soda for personal consumption (of course, I do always manage to have a six-pack of beer on hand).

So while it may be completely foreign to me, apparently it’s quite usual for a large percentage of the population to spend consecutive evenings on the couch with a bag of chips and a large bottle of fizzy sugar-water, ordering out for pizza.

A sobering realization (hence the beer)

I remember back in the early seventies, when Coca Cola and Pepsi were pressuring the School Board to allow them to put pop machines in the cafeteria. Prior to this, it was milk, or water, or nothing.

A lot of people at the time fought the move, because they predicted (correctly) that milk and water consumption would drop dramatically, if kids were given the option of buying a soft drink. But, as usual, money talks, and the lure of “enhanced revenue” generated by the pop machines won out.

You really need to talk sometime to someone who works for Coca-Cola or Pepsi. These fanatics actually believe there’s nothing wrong with people drinking soda exclusively 24/7/365.

We keep blaming all of the various types of food. It’s not the food, it’s the individual, the person who chooses to eat 3 plates of food instead of 1, the person who thinks it’s a good idea to consume a gallon of soda per day.

Exercise…exercise…exercise. I am over 40 and eat reasonable portions of any food that I am in the mood for every 4 hours or so, I also drink 2 or 3 imported beers every night and maintain a +- 3lb weight range and a 33 inch waist consistently. That is what a mere 6 hours of vigorous exercise per week will do for anyone who is willing to get off the couch and turn off the boob tube.

It is another communist trap you are all falling into. Slowly, thy single out products, demonize them until banned by majority public opinion, one by one until you look around and find that our choices are now being made for us.

I like having the choice of drinking a coke, eating a greasy cheeseburger or deep fried chicken strips if that is what I am in the mood for. Don’t give up your freedom of choice, be responsible, be active and be fit.

They can have my fried twinkie when they pry it from my cold, dead paw.

I do not think it is just the food - I just returned from the Philippines and while I was there I went to a couple of their HUGE malls and they were full of thousands of thin, healthy Filipinos. The seven floor mall had one whole level with deep fried everything (even things exotic to Americans such as parts of the chicken and fish that we usually throw away) and it was all really cheap. In addition all the American/Multinational chain fast food (Pizza Hut, KFC, McD, etc..) could be found everywhere. maybe it is the Asian body type that is able to process all that deep fried food and not put on weight unlike most Americans?

I think out of several thousand I saw only one girl that was “Morbidly Obese” (>300lbs) while I was in Manila. Earler in the month I had a business trip to Huntsville, Alabama and had to go into the Target and there it was like I was walking into a cattle ranch… 80% of the people in the store were >300 lbs and a great number of the older ones had to use those electric scooters to get around.

UCLA Center for East-West Medicine
Department of Medicine
This is the future of medicine. The drug companies will either buy their way into it by way of more natural and proactive approaches (buying up smaller companies), or they will become less powerful, imho.

The drug companies will either buy their way into it by way of more natural and proactive approaches (buying up smaller companies), or they will become less powerful, imho.

Personally, I think that holding “natural” supplement purveyors to the same manufacturing standards as the pharmaceutical companies would be a good thing. Nowadays, you have no idea what goes into the supplements. Could be fillers. Could be something else.

AZ Slim
No counter from me, as long as you are free to get it OTC. It’s not like drugs are safe. I would venture to say most aren’t, in my research of hospitalization stats.(Family member is in the analytics biz)
Drug companies aren’t exactly ethical or have any standards (i.e. lobbyist and salespeople). I like the balanced approached to medicine. I believe we are all responsible for our health, and we should control the risks we can.
“Put down the cheese doodles” iow.

Slim,
My husband saw a “China” comment in prescription information, and didn’t pay for it. He passed.
Oh, and the recall on drugs and OTC stuff is a reality.
Drug companies are evil, imho. They do some good, and a lot of really, really bad stuff. payola! I trust the Biotech firms more.

That’s more like it! I’ve got a small place about 100 miles southwest of there and the tax bill is about 2400 a year. That could be managed … though my spouse might go nuts up there.

But that bump at the end is awfully strange, yeah. New York State going broke, of course.

heh…. that $2400/yr you call afforable 100 miles of Rennselaer was likely half that in 1999.

Get what you can get for that place in Schoharie today because it’s going to be less tomorrow…. for many many years to come.

“Arrangements” Yeah right, the check is in the mail.

Methinks that bank had best find some ketchup. Something about eating a loss.

We have a winner.

As I’ve said, there are many similarities and parallels to the S&L disaster.

Again why not answer his question.
Exeter posted a fact that medical malpractice accounts for a small percentage of our medical costs.

Let’s review.
Cuba spends <5% per person that we spend in the US. They have similar outcomes.
Law suits account for a small share of the cost of medical care in the US and if completely eliminated you’d still be spending many times as much as Cuba.

Conclusion
A socialized medical delivery system delivers care for less, but if you want to do away with lawsuits I’m all for it. It’s just not the main driver of cost.

For more evidence that law suits aren’t the main driver of cost.

newyorker.com/reporting/2009/06/01/090601fa_fact_gawande

“It seems that in your view everyone other than you is deluded and misinformed.”

“View”????? I posted facts. You posted an opinion and yes you’re entitled to it…. but you’re not entitled to your own facts. And I will be there to remind you of that….. every. single. time.

Cuba spends <5% per person that we spend in the US. They have similar outcomes.

However they have vastly different inputs. That’s kind of like saying you can add 3 to 8 and get 20, by saying “look - it worked for 17! I added 3 and got 20 - I should be able to also add 3 to 8 and get 20.”

Specifically what I’m getting to is primarily demographics and lifestyle. They are vastly different between the two countries - e.g. we have millions of illegal immigrants to support that Cuba doesn’t, and also a much more sedentary lifestyle than Cuba. If we tried to install a socialized medical delivery system here, it would not have anywhere close to the same results.

“If we tried to install a socialized medical delivery system here, it would not have anywhere close to the same results.”

We already do have it here. It’s called Medicare. Get used to it because it’s not going away. To the contrary; eventually Medicare will cover all US citizens.

Jim,

The best way to figure out if malpractice lawsuits are to blame is to look at facts. Texas passed very stron tort reform a few years ago. If medical costs in Texas have gone way down in the wake of that reform, then you can blame the lawyers. If not, you can’t. Find the study that compares the cost of health care in Texas as compared to other states before and after their tort reform and see if their costs changed markedly. Just stating that it must be the lawyers isn’t a argument.

I don’t doubt that for a second. I’ll even hold up Medicare as Exhibit A as to why it won’t work here.

Noting of course, Medicare’s pending insolvency - which last I saw was expected in 2017.

Medicare delivers health care for less than insurance.

We pay 12-15% more for private medicare advantage than we do for medicare.

Noting of course, Medicare’s pending insolvency - which last I saw was expected in 2017.

Doesn’t this say more about funding than about cost effectiveness?

From Polly:
The best way to figure out if malpractice lawsuits are to blame is to look at facts.

I pointed out a few days ago that here in Florida Workers Compensation rates dropped 63% from 2003 (to current 2010) after the legislature passed legislation most of which addressed and limited tort fees.
I do not think that the current assumptions for tort premium in health care used does not address the reflected hidden defensive costs throughout the system, both providers and insurers. Malpractice insurance costs do not come close to covering this exposure (in my opinion however, no FACTS referenced, excuse me Exeter).
More to the point, I do not see some overwhelming reason to NOT control the tort process better than we do in the US. A simple change would be to change the system to:
-You can sue anyone for anything at any time (present)
ADD
-IF you lose, you pay all costs incurred for your suit by all parties. Watch the negotiated settlements disappear.

The primary result of making the loser pay all lawyers costs is that large institutiuons that can afford to front the money for large teams of lawyers can’t be sued. Even if your case is so strong that you only have a 10% chance of losing, would you take that risk if it meant you had to pay $4 million dollars of lawyers fees? Or $40 million. You think the big drug companies couldn’t come up with costs like that to discourage valid law suits? Think again.

Worker’s comp includes way too many other sorts of costs for it to be a good substitute for health care costs alone.

The Texas tort reform is the gold standard. I’ll give you a hint, the Gawande article in the The New Yorker that was the talk of DC last year said that there was essentially no change in health care spending in Texas after tort reform. The differences from place to place within Texas were primarily attributable to the culture of the doctors in that area. If everyone in town A sent people with a headache for a CAT scan (espcially true in places where the doctors owned the CAT scan places) then health care costs were high in town A. Most people with a headache don’t need a CAT scan, but if you make money off prescribing it and insurance covers it, a lot of docs are willing to do it. At least they are if all the other docs in the area also do it.

I have friends who are doctors in other countries that consider the idea that a doctor might have a profit interest in a testing facility where they prescribe tests to be so unethical that they can barely speak about it.

The differences from place to place within Texas were primarily attributable to the culture of the doctors in that area. If everyone in town A sent people with a headache for a CAT scan (espcially true in places where the doctors owned the CAT scan places) then health care costs were high in town A. Most people with a headache don’t need a CAT scan, but if you make money off prescribing it and insurance covers it, a lot of docs are willing to do it. At least they are if all the other docs in the area also do it.

Good points, polly.

If you’re interested in regional variations in health care, much of which is driven by the local “doctor culture,” check out the Dartmouth Atlas of Health Care.

Polly, I understand that there is a $250k cap
on damages in TX, and that if the doctor fesses up and acknowledges that he goofed,
that’s it. No legal recourse if you’ve had the
wrong leg taken off. Right?

From Polly:
“The primary result of making the loser pay all lawyers costs is that large institutiuons that can afford to front the money for large teams of lawyers can’t be sued…”

My comment:
The same countries that are heralded as having “the” answer to healthcare, i.e. every industrialized country in the world except the US are the same countries who universally use the loser pays all costs system.

“Robert L. Woodson (1989,p 63) calculated that, on average, 70 cents of each dollar budgeted for government assistance goes not to the poor, but to the members of the welfare bureaucracy and others serving the poor. Michael Tanner (1996, p. 136 n.18) cites regional studies supporting this 70/30 split.”

- Journal of Liberterian Studies (Summer 2007)

“Robert L. Woodson (1989,p 63) calculated that, on average…”

My read was centered in California, maybe ten years ago. Either way, we came close; enabling the poor isn’t cheap.

I periodically get people banging on my door, and they’re looking for money to buy milk for a baby. Or something like that.

I used to open the door so I could say no, but the last time I did that was several years ago. Now I just let them bang away.

Happened last night while I was listening to “Tabasco Road” on KXCI. Lady even said “Hello?” but I kept right on listening to the Cajun music. She went away.

A few minutes later, I *think* I saw her walking down the street with a whole passel of kids. Her accomplices? I don’t know. And I don’t want to find out.

I periodically get people banging on my door, and they’re looking for money to buy milk for a baby. Or something like that.

Speaking of which, another door banger a few minutes ago. Kids are out of school for the day, so it could be a knock and run situation.

I’ll see what’s happening in a few minutes. Probably nothing more than somebody looking for gas money. Or baby milk money. Or something like that.

[ Actually, the door-to-door money seekers are casing houses. Cops have warned Tucsonans about this sort of thing. So, Yours Truly won't answer the door unless I'm expecting someone. ]

unless they’re challenged by someone, they’ll get braver and braver. one of these days they’ll try breaking in.

i’ve lived in phoenix, tucson, seira vista and bullhead city and i’ve never heard of what’s happening to you. but then i haven’t lived in arizona for over six years either. the place must be changing.

unless they’re challenged by someone, they’ll get braver and braver. one of these days they’ll try breaking in.

Turns out that the visitors were canvassing for the Democratic Party. I just harvested a bunch of campaign literature from the door.

“Turns out that the visitors were canvassing for the Democratic Party.”

You had better get a home defence weapon cause they`re already breaking in.

Then apparently, he did try. But three years ago, the banks were saying “tough.”

looks like a toss up..

google “personal bankruptcies” and then “consumer bankruptcies” and half the MSM uses one term, and half uses the other.

wsj uses both in different articles.

I mean, if you’re bankrupt, you won’t be doing a lot of consuming.

I mean, if you’re bankrupt, you won’t be doing a lot of consuming.

nor would you declare bankruptcy without first doing a lot of consuming.

I’m thinking before we see mass starvation we’ll see friends and families take these people in and churches taking collections to care for people in their neighborhoods.

That’s harder to do when those of us who still have jobs are getting taxed to death.

I’d be much better able to provide for my mother’s care and well-being if my money wasn’t being taken from me to subsidize everyone else’s poor decisions.

Everyone.. you.. me.. the Fed.. politicians.. knows there was and is no way to preserve any semblance of a functional economy while letting property prices crash and burn.

The decision was to let the air out in a slow, controlled manner, and thus suffer the least amount of economic damage.
So far the strategy has worked pretty well. Some disapprove of the methods used, but that’s life.

Everyone.. you.. me.. the Fed.. politicians.. knows there was and is no way to preserve any semblance of a functional economy while letting property prices crash and burn.

not me Joey. i believe that letting home prices crash and over extended banks fail and auto companies that can’t sell cars fail, was the best way to go. no bailouts for anyone, ever. if they’d have let that happen we’d be in the recovery by now. all they’ve done is delay the pain which will now last longer and be deeper than it would have been before.

plus, it might turn out that we’ll have to deal with high inflation now. they didn’t save the economy, they made it worse.

i didn’t say “was the best way to go”. I said “preserve any semblance of a functional economy”.

we’d be in the recovery soup lines by now.

i didn’t say “was the best way to go”. I said “preserve any semblance of a functional economy”.

i know you didn’t say that.. ‘i’ said it was the best way to go.

we’d be in the soup lines by now.

what would have happened to put us in soup lines?

What would keep us out of soup lines?

Think all banks wouldn’t fall like dominoes in the run after a just a few, big “over extended” ones are allowed to go under?

Think your money would remain intact in a failed bank?
Think the FDIC could refund more than about 1% of people’s accounts? Think millions of people wouldn’t be busted overnight?

Think entire industries could go up in smoke, drag everything around them into the abyss, but your job would somehow survive?
—-

The whole world crapped it’s collective pants when just ONE WS firm went down. The Dow was chopped in half. Global financial panic.

“what would have happened to put us in soup lines?” Try extrapolating from that point onward..

What would keep us out of soup lines?

a better economy.

———

Think all banks wouldn’t fall like dominoes in the run after a just a few, big “over extended” ones are allowed to go under?

many smaller banks that didn’t make bad loans would survive and get stronger with the new customers they would get.

———-

Think your money would remain intact in a failed bank?

up to the insured limit, yes

———-

Think the FDIC could refund more than about 1% of people’s accounts? Think millions of people wouldn’t be busted overnight?

only the people whose accounts were over the insurance limits.

———

Think entire industries could go up in smoke, drag everything around them into the abyss, but your job would somehow survive?

popular myth that i’ve never seen supported logically. i certainly don’t see any reason for entire industries going up in smoke.

—-

The whole world crapped it’s collective pants when just ONE WS firm went down. The Dow was chopped in half. Global financial panic.

businesses fail all the time with no big disastrous effects on the economy. i didn’t believe hank ‘immunity’ paulson when he claimed we were on the edge of financial armageddon. he just wanted to scare everyone so he could bail out his buddies at squiddie.

‘So far the strategy has worked pretty well.’

I couldn’t disagree more, and history will show how wrong you are. Not only has the situation been made worse, but economic recovery has been delayed for years, and at a massive, futile, borrowed cost.

I think people like you fancy yourselves as one of the ‘elite’ handful that benefit from things like this. In truth, everyone will suffer from these foolish, counterproductive measures.

..fancy yourselves as one of the ‘elite’ handful that benefit from things like this.

I have something to lose, so yes I benefit from a stable economy.
You, in contrast, sound like you’ve got nothing to lose, and believe you’ll benefit somehow from financial meltdown.
——

As for history what history will prove, i got a feeling at least one country will choose to (or be forced to) let it’s economy fail before this is over. Greece got close.. but no cigar. Ireland? Maybe. But there will be plenty of others..

If one does go under we can directly observe the effects, and we’ll know what would have happened here. ‘Till then, your speculations are no more worthy than mine.

‘believe you’ll benefit somehow from financial meltdown’

The problem was housing prices were too high. Lower prices are the solution. We all benefit when the economy rights itself. This talk of failing economies and ‘meltdowns’ is used to frighten people. And I ask, if what has been done is so great, why can so many people not find work? Why can they not afford houses? What you advocate is is kicking the can down the road, without regard to the damage done.

There’s a big difference between your ’speculations’ and mine. One is right and one is wrong.

..if what has been done is so great, why can so many people not find work? Why can they not afford houses?

There’s no denying the whole financial system is in trouble. That’s why people can’t find jobs.
Home prices bubbled up and have yet to fall. That’s why they can’t buy homes.

The question doesn’t even address how much worse it might have been by now, had we suffered 20 Bear Sterns and Lehman bros..

The collapse of the company (BS) was a prelude to the risk management meltdown of the Wall Street investment bank industry in September 2008, and the subsequent global financial crisis and recession. Wikipedia

Such a theory.. as if it deserves the name.. is absolutely unproven and without basis in fact. There is NO reason to assume we will magically rise like the Phoenix, reborn from the ashes..
We might NOT rise again.. Or when we do, the world could be entirely different.. and MUCH worse than what we currently have.
—-
This talk of failing economies and ‘meltdowns’ is used to frighten people.
All it takes is one bank going under, and people PANIC. Then EVERY bank has a run. It doesn’t matter if the good banks are financially stable. They will go down along with the bad ones.

The FDIC fund fails within a week. (and please don’t suggest the govt will print $$ trillions to replace people’s deposits.) People will lose everything.
—

People think govt is out of control now? Too much govt intrusion now?
Wait till the PTB gets the opportunity to rebuild society from scratch, while the people are destitute and virtually powerless. The Constitution, being nothing but limits on govt power, will be the first thing to go.

My pleasure. It sure made me happy, especially since I wasn’t cherry picking. I had four things on the list, and they all just happened to be non imports. A good day!