Bits Bucket For October 6, 2010
Post off-topic ideas, links and Craigslist finds here
The Housing Bubble
Examining the home price boom and its effect on owners, lenders, regulators, realtors and the economy as a whole.
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Name:Ben Jones
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Push to halt foreclosures gains steam
NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) — Pressure is mounting on U.S. banks to halt more foreclosures amid widespread allegations that loan servicers failed to verify legal documents in what could be hundreds of thousands of cases.
Members of Congress from California wrote to the heads of the Justice Department, the Federal Reserve, and the Comptroller of the Currency on Tuesday, requesting that they investigate the foreclosure processes of banks under their purview for “possible violations of law or regulations.”
In their letter to the regulatory agencies, California lawmakers, including House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, said lenders in the state have routinely resisted working with borrowers hurt by the weak economy. They argued that banks are slowing the economic recovery by worsening the foreclosure crisis.
The recent revelations “only amplify our concerns that systemic problems exist in the ways many financial institutions have dealt with homeowners who are seeking to avoid foreclosures,” the letter said. “It is time that banks are held accountable for their practices that have left too many homeowners without real help.”
Where was Nancy Pelosi when documents were being blatantly forged as the houses were selling like hotcakes? Why no moratorium on closings at the time?
“Why no moratorium on closings at the time?”
Why are you sooo negative? Debbie Downers like you are the reason homes stopped selling!
“Where was Nancy Pelosi when documents were being blatantly forged as the houses were selling like hotcakes?”
Sitting in a REPUBLICAN controlled Congress until she became Speaker of House… just 2 month before 2007.
2007. Hmmm, why does that a ring a bell?
Care to try for the other foot?
Let me get this straight. You like Nancy Pelosi?
In egregious cases, like that all-cash buyer who didn’t even have a mortgage but faced foreclosure, I think that a moratorium would be a good idea. I also think that double-checking the paperwork generated by the so-called foreclosure mills would be wise.
OTOH, as many others have said, more careful qualification of potential buyers would have avoided a lot of the foreclosure problems we’re having now. (Yup, call me Captain Obvious.)
Better yet, why not just allow these silly banks to rot and let the bottom feeders live on the compost. I would be much more amenable to capitalism if companies were as capitalist on the way down as they were on the way up.
Hear hear!
If you make your payments you won’t get forclosed !Bingo. No -hit G.I. That’s my problem then, I went to ‘Vegas and got high on nose candy instead of making my payments.Everyone was doing it. Why pick on me ?
Thank god 10%+ unemployment had nothing to do with it.
Foreclosure Moratorium = Stealth Stimulus without the congressional vote:
-Lets say 1 million foreclosures are “delayed”
-Multiply by the average PITA payment, lets say $2500. (probably higher with resets, penalties, back hoa, etc.)
-Multiply by six months (probably will be longer).
-1milllionx$2500×6 = $15,000,000,000.
-That’s a cool fifteen BILLION DOLLARS!
-Which can now be spent on cars, ipads, flatscreens, vacations, etc.
Keep in mind that the delayed foreclosures represent a small portion of deliquent mortgages out there. Does anybody have any real numbers for more accurate calculations?
Fifteen billion per month, no less; not just a one-time fifteen billion.
Seems about right. We’re currently running about 4M annual foreclosure filings actually (as reported by RealtyTrac, though I think that includes all foreclosure activity - the actual numbers are very muddy). So it very much depends on how long these moratoriums stay in effect. The longer they stay in effect - the higher the per-month effective stimulus.
(And the longer the banks continue to reap the rewards of mark-to-fantasy.)
At the risk of playing the devil’s advocate for Megabank, Inc., permit me to suggest the following:
The foreclosure moratoriums, and the banks’ slow-walking of foreclosures-in-progress indicate that, maybe-just-maybe, those mortgages aren’t ever going to be paid.
So, in light of this reality, the PTB might as well condone some consumer spending because that’s money that gets fed into the economy and some of it comes back to the (insolvent) banks.
Which, over time, will become solvent again.
Ok, Slim. But shouldn’t the FBs be spending the money on rent and living expenses (stimulating that way) like the rest of us instead of buying crap most of which probably comes from China? Shouldn’t the houses be going on the market and allowing someone with the actual means to buy them at an affordable price. Shouldn’t the government quit meddling with every market it can get its clutches on?
All fine and good - except isn’t it a bit bad, both in terms of fairness and in terms of implications for future actions, for life to be all sun and roses for those who were financially irresponsible - the FB’s and the banks - while the rest of us bear the cost?
Those who F’ed up should bear the consequences - not those who didn’t.
I’d buy you a drink anytime, packman.
I am having trouble buying into the idea that this helps the banks at all. If they want to extend, pretend and delay foreclosures, they certainly can do so all day long, without the further bad press and additional lawsuits that news of their poor practices made public brings.
This helps folks who want to live in the house without paying the mortgage. Subsequently, its good news for restaurants, retailers and the Chinese.
I don’t see it as good news for home buyers. Even for home sellers its a mixed bag; less competition, sure, but what good does that do if buyers won’t make offers because they are too wary of getting a clean title out of the deal in addition to expecting a later tsunami of inventory coming on the market?
I am having trouble buying into the idea that this helps the banks at all. If they want to extend, pretend and delay foreclosures, they certainly can do so all day long, without the further bad press and additional lawsuits that news of their poor practices made public brings.
Not sure how feasible that would be. There are enough ears to the ground complaining about houses sitting empty - the banks have to move on them at some point, unless something artificial comes along and provides them with an excuse to do so.
For the most part they don’t give a crap about the “bad press”; they just blame it on one or two robo-signers and move on (the same way Wall Street blamed the flash crash on one dinky midwestern trading house). Lawsuits - meh. A few million here and there is nothing compared with the billions in extra profits / less losses that the moratoriums could bring.
It helps the banks because the reality is that nobody is quite sure just who actually owns those houses.
And the assembly-line foreclosures have brought some VERY unwanted attention from states’ attorney generals… who are asking the same question. “Can you prove you own the mortgage?”
“4M annual”
Do you have any cumulative figures on
- how many foreclosures have happened since, say, 2006?
- how many foreclosures are likely to occur before this is over (e.g. as relates to reported 6-8 million mortgages in default)?
- how many of the foreclosures that already are in the pipeline have completed the full birth-and-death process from foreclosure to new ownership?
Not really. That number is from RealtyTrac market reports.
link
My 4M number was from their January report for 2009. It shows 3.957M “foreclosure filings” - however that was actually on only 2.8M homes (they include NODs, auction scheduling, and bank repos as separate filings). E.g. here’s that report:
IRVINE, Calif. – Jan. 14, 2010 – RealtyTrac® (http://www.realtytrac.com/), the leading online marketplace for foreclosure properties, today released its Year-End 2009 Foreclosure Market Report™, which shows a total of 3,957,643 foreclosure filings — default notices, scheduled foreclosure auctions and bank repossessions — were reported on 2,824,674 U.S. properties in 2009, a 21 percent increase in total properties from 2008 and a 120 percent increase in total properties from 2007. The report also shows that 2.21 percent of all U.S. housing units (one in 45) received at least one foreclosure filing during the year, up from 1.84 percent in 2008, 1.03 percent in 2007 and 0.58 percent in 2006.
Foreclosure filings were reported on 349,519 U.S. properties in December, a 14 percent jump from the previous month and a 15 percent increase from December 2008 — when a similar monthly jump in foreclosure activity occurred. Despite the increase in December, foreclosure activity in the fourth quarter decreased 7 percent from the third quarter, although it was still up 18 percent from the fourth quarter of 2008.
“As bad as the 2009 numbers are, they probably would have been worse if not for legislative and industry-related delays in processing delinquent loans,” said James J. Saccacio, chief executive officer of RealtyTrac. “After peaking in July with over 361,000 homes receiving a foreclosure notice, we saw four straight monthly decreases driven primarily by short-term factors: trial loan modifications, state legislation extending the foreclosure process and an overwhelming volume of inventory clogging the foreclosure pipeline.
“Despite all the delays, foreclosure activity still hit a record high for our report in 2009, capped off by a substantial increase in December,” Saccacio continued. “In the long term a massive supply of delinquent loans continues to loom over the housing market, and many of those delinquencies will end up in the foreclosure process in 2010 and beyond as lenders gradually work their way through the backlog.”
-That’s a cool fifteen BILLION DOLLARS!
-Which can now be spent on cars, ipads, flatscreens, vacations, etc.
There’s anecdotal evidence that this is already happening. Business Week suggested as much a few months ago. (Sorry I can’t remember the issue date or the title of the article.)
someone has to lose out on one end. hmm…who could that be?
-Which can now be spent on cars, ipads, flatscreens, vacations, etc.
..but would it be spent?
put yourself in the FB’s position.. You’re gonna get booted out onto the street as soon as some flunky “verifies” info on some document. Your credit is trash and renting new digs may be problematic.
And anyway, if you were one of the few who has the $2,500 to spend, why is the house being foreclosed?
Maybe because the house is 50% underwater could have something to do with the default.
Yeah.,. some are deliberate walk-aways.. but I suspect they are far outnumbered by investors who bought two or more properties, which are being foreclosed. That well is dry.
anyway, while some amount of money is not being spent on PITA, and might be spent elsewhere, determining how much is no simple matter.
Does the evidence at hand that banks have no ability to manage the foreclosure flood increase incentives for deeply underwater borrowers to stop making payment and hope for the best?
I know for sure what I would be doing if I were hopelessly in debt and living in a home which I knew would eventually be foreclosed.
In this scenario, it looks like the FBs aren’t the only effed ones. Case in point:
Are we about to see a Financial Sector Celebrity Death Match Between the Title and Mortgage Industries?
This and the news of state’s AGs now looking into the assembly line foreclosures and asking the pointed question of just who actually HAS the mortgage, means we haven’t seen ANYTHING yet!
WOW!
Consumer loan delinquencies up slightly
Bankers association says rate up for first time in four quarters
WASHINGTON — Consumer loan delinquencies rose for the first time in four quarters as the economy continues to struggle.
The American Bankers Association said in a report released on Monday that the overall delinquency rate rose slightly from 2.98 percent to 3 percent in the second quarter based on the statistics the group uses to measure how much trouble consumers are having making payments on loans.
The delinquency rate had been dropping steadily since hitting 3.35 percent in the second quarter of 2009.
“The economic momentum over the last few quarters seems to be losing steam,” ABA Chief Economist James Chessen said in a statement.
“Consumer loan delinquencies rose for the first time in four quarters as the economy continues to struggle.”
Delinquencies are rising despite the pickiness of lenders.
In the Good Ol’ Days lenders would loan to anybody, thus the deliquencies rate was high. Then lenders tightened up their lending standards, which dropped their delinquency rate.
It would be normal, even in bad times, for lenders to have a dropping delinquency rate if they tightened their lending standards, hence the delinquency rate is not necessairly a good indication of how WELL the economy is doing.
But a rising deliquency rate when lending standards are tightened may be a good indicator of how really BADLY the economy is doing now.
The reverse could be true if “standards” are raised on existing accounts. Credit limits reduced to below the outstanding balance and interest rates jacked up to usury levels could lead to increased defaults on outstanding debts.
True dat.
How much is lenders getting picky,and how much because they’re writing off loans, either because of bankruptcy, or selling them off to collection agencies?
Your argument might be valid if the article was talking about new loans, but it never mentions that. Thus, picky lender loans could be doing great and it could be the seasoned loans that are struggling. You argument could still be valid. But we can’t disentangle the hypotheses with this data.
It is hard to say, but there is precedent out there for people paying the CCs instead of the mortgage.
+1 crunch. The deliquencies are likely 5 year ARM neg-ams signed by Primes in the height of the refinance boom. Credit Suisse graph strikes again.
These banks were too free back then and not free enough now — a continuous cycle of opening and closing the barn door 180° out of phase with the horse thieves. You lose horse after horse after horse.
That was my thinking.
Maybe. But keep in mind that the delinquency rate is the number of delinquent accounts divided by the number of accounts. If credit is tightening, the denominator is shrinking which can artificially make it look like you have more delinquent accounts when you actually have fewer accounts overall. The opposite occurs when portfolios are growing. A delinquency problem can be overwhelmed by simply opening more new accounts.
Wells Fargo Won’t Delay Foreclosures as JPMorgan, BofA Check Their Filings
By Dakin Campbell and David Mildenberg - Oct 5, 2010 9:00 PM PT
Wells Fargo & Co. is standing by the accuracy of foreclosure filings and won’t follow competitors in delaying seizures, after an employee testified he signed documents for proceedings without personally reviewing records.
The bank said yesterday it doesn’t plan to halt repossessions because its “procedures and daily auditing demonstrate that our foreclosure affidavits are accurate.”
In a May 20 deposition, a Wells Fargo Home Mortgage employee said he signed 50 to 150 documents a day, including statements describing debts and borrowers, without personally confirming that all information was true. His testimony related to a civil claim against the bank filed in a Washington state court. A judge dismissed the case in June.
Mortgage firms have drawn fire from borrowers, lawyers and state officials for letting employees sign affidavits for court- monitored foreclosures without personally checking loan records. JPMorgan Chase & Co. and Bank of America Corp. last week delayed foreclosures to review the accuracy of their filings. Last month, Ally Financial Inc. said its GMAC Mortgage unit would halt evictions for a similar review.
The Wells Fargo employee said he relied on foreclosure attorneys and personnel in other departments to check files, according to a deposition transcript provided by Melissa Huelsman, the Seattle attorney representing the homeowner. The employee said he confirmed the date on the file before signing without verifying other information.
…
WF might want to stop their boat from floating too far down De Nile and take a look at what AGs are doing in other states.
This could be a multi-billion dollar disaster… for EACH comapny involved.
Lawmakers seek foreclosure investigations
A foreclosed home is shown in Chicago in this June 29, 2010 file photo. REUTERS/John Gress
WASHINGTON | Wed Oct 6, 2010 1:37am EDT
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - California Democrats in the House of Representatives are calling for federal investigations into whether financial institutions broke any laws in their handling of foreclosures in the midst of the housing crisis.
Reports from thousands of homeowners in their congressional districts show an “apparent pattern” of practices that led to foreclosures that could have been avoided, the lawmakers wrote in an October 4 letter to Attorney General Eric Holder, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke and the Treasury Department.
The letter was signed by House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and 30 California lawmakers.
“The excuses we have heard from financial institutions are simply not credible three years into this crisis. People in our districts are hurting,” the letter said. “It is time that banks are held accountable for their practices that have left too many homeowners without real help.”
The lawmakers said thousands of people have reported that despite efforts to seek loan modifications or other relief many financial institutions “routinely fail to respond in a timely manner, misplace requested documents, and send mixed signals” about what is required to avoid foreclosures.
At least six states are investigating the foreclosure procedures at Ally Financial Inc or JPMorgan Chase or both.
Ally, formerly known as GMAC, revealed last month that officials had signed thousands of affidavits supporting foreclosure proceedings without having personal knowledge of the borrowers’ situations.
…
“Ally, formerly known as GMAC, revealed last month that officials had signed thousands of affidavits supporting foreclosure proceedings without having personal knowledge of the borrowers’ situations.”
It’s nothing personal just business.
Do any of them care to sign a paper asking whether banks broke any laws in handling the MORTGAGE paperwork? Verifiable income, perhaps?
See my post far below. The Ohio AG has already started suing GMAC $25,000 for EACH false affidavit. Just in that state ALONE, that could amount to $11 BILLION dollars in fines.
We’re going to need a LOT more popcorn.
The largest wealth transfer to Wall Street investment banks in U.S. history was a bust for Main Street? Say it ain’t so!
The bailout was a bust for most taxpayers
Oct 4, 2010 14:49 EDT
bailout | tarp | taxpayers
Was the bailout of the U.S. banking, auto and insurance industries worth it?
As the Troubled Assets Relief Program comes to a close, I won’t be popping any champagne corks. The Federal Reserve and U.S. taxpayers are still owed at least $2 trillion and at least two black holes remain in the bailout scenario.
The conventional wisdom is that life as we knew it was preserved and a 1930s-style depression (or worse) was averted.
Yet for millions of Americans, the bailout hasn’t helped them a bit. They are still punch drunk and often jobless from Wall Street’s and the bankers’ Las Vegas benders.
Former Goldman Sachs manager and author Nomi Prins tells me “Main Street is not better off, because it did not receive the lion’s share of the grandiose focus, subsidies, monies and removal of toxic asset aid that the banking sector inhaled into the top levels of their institutions.”
…
“Main Street is not better off, because it did not receive the lion’s share of the grandiose focus
And it was never intended to receive anything.
The fix was in from the beginning.
and everybody knew it.
It was most likely posted here before ,but just read “Wall Streets Bailout Hustle “, by Matt Tabbit published in March of 2010 .
What was the authors name who this article? I.B. Obvious?
Wasn’t it a Rolling Stones article ? Its free on the internet
Middle Class Slams Brakes on Spending
Middle-class Americans made their deepest spending cuts in more than two decades, slashing spending on such discretionary items as restaurant meals and alcohol during the recession.
Households in the middle fifth of the population sliced their average annual spending to $41,150 in 2009, the Labor Department said Tuesday in its annual spending breakdown. That was down 3.1% from 2007 and 3.5% from 2008, the steepest one-year drop since records began in 1984. The drop came even as those households’ after-tax income remained relatively stable over the two years, at an average $45,199.
Meanwhile, the poorest Americans spent more as prices for necessities like food and rental housing climbed. Spending rose 5.6% from 2007 to 2009 for the poorest fifth of consumers, the most of any other income group, despite a 5.5% drop in after-tax income to an average $9,956 a household. In some cases, elderly people and others with low incomes dipped into savings or relied on credit to get by.
“What you’re looking at here is people at the bottom trying to hang on,” said Timothy Smeeding, public affairs professor and director of the Institute for Research on Poverty at the University of Wisconsin in Madison. “You can’t go below a certain level.”
“You can’t go below a certain level.”
I wonder if Mr. Smeegle has any idea what that certain level really is.
Like living under a mountain and eating cave fish and young goblins.
A mobile home that used to be a grocery cart and a new career in soda can recycling?
… down by the river.
Cockroaches can really be quite tasty when lightly browned over an open fire.
The notion that we’re anywhere close to a “base level” of expenditures is - quite simply - ludicrious.
That graph tells a HUGE story. Oh man, does it tell a huge story.
That graph is unbelievable! We barely have ticked down and they are screaming its a depression. Something fishy here.
I agree…there is something rotten in Denmark.
Looks perfectly sustainable to me.
Nice post packman….
And, a update on the inventory levels in my area;
95050-95054…….
SFR’s…….165 + - ….That is a triple off the lows of around 50 about a year ago…Its been a steady up-tick each month…We paused around 120 then started up again…
It would be interesting to see that graph modified to:
(1) account for inflation, and
(2) be adjusted to show per capita.
IIRC around WWII the US population was around 100 million. It’s over 300 million now.
“(1) account for inflation”
In 1960 a first class stamp was 4c. A dime bought you what a dollar does today.
Yes I was going to comment that of course it doesn’t account for that. I’ll create one that does (or at least as a % of GDP)…
Here’s one adjusted for inflation and population.
And one in GDP terms
The GDP terms graph is especially interesting. Shows PCE bounced between 61% and 64% for decades.
Then, starting in the mid-1980s, the line goes on quite the upward trajectory. Debt-fueled PCE, methinks.
This is M1 though, right? Hardly covers the debt rocket.
Yeppers. Pretty much exactly corresponds with this.
And the delta of those corresponds with this.
Ok I don’t understand - this IS adjusted for inflation, right?
No it’s not - see above posts. There’s not an inflation-adjusted one on that site, but I’ll create one.
(Also has to be adjusted for population)
good find
Doesn’t inflation explain at least part of the increase? Population increase also accounts for some. Would be interesting to see what it looked like adjusted for inflation and population increase.
Guess I need to read the whole thread before I ask questions! You’re good Packman…
And where’s the true cost of living chart to compare it to?
Remember, if you were making 12K a year in 1980, you now have to make 35K to have the same buying power. And that’s a conservative figure based on Tom Inflation Calculator.
Shadow Stats says you have to be making 106K to just keep up.
And one last contextual note: there weren’t 300 million people where this chart begins.
Why the dismay over falling spending occurring in tandem with “stable” incomes? To this point a lot of what we’ve seen are the effects of the HELOC spigot being shut off - and we all know how that middle quintile (Stanley Johnsons) loved their HELOCs.
Well yes, this IS a good thing. But of course many homes, malls, and other investments were made based on the illusion that “equity” could be treated as “income.”
I wonder if the raising of credit card minimum payments might be having a (small) impact on spending?
Now that you have to pay a bit more each month Joe How-much-a-month has a little less to go around and that box on the credit card statement that tells you how long it would take to pay off the debt is certainly “new” information to a lot happy shoppers.
I know if I carried a balance looking at those numbers would give a an “oh my g0d” moment.
“and we all know how that middle quintile (Stanley Johnsons) loved their HELOCs”
I think Stanley Johnson was 2nd quintile and trying to live a 1st (top) quintile lifestyle (country club, kids in private schools, luxury cars, etc.). I could be wrong but that was the impression I got from the commercials.
No, Stanley was the third quintile. IIRC, he was cutting his own grass on a riding mower, the second and first quintiles do not do yardwork.
Sure they do. A riding lawnmower is recreational. Quality man time.
I think it depends on where you live. If you live in “illegal country” then you definitely don’t do your own yardwork.
Out here in flyover country a large lot (20,000 sq ft+ and a John Deer Riding Mover (not one of those cheapo MTDs) are status symbols.
I know plenty of six figure income people who do their own yard work.
My husband and I do our own yardwork. I got tired of supporting illegal immigration. And seeing all those lovely grass clippings being hauled away in the back of a truck every week. Also, since neither of us speak Spanish, we found it impossible to convey that we like the natural look and didn’t want our shrubs trimmed into balls and cones. We are much happier doing our own mowing and trimming. Of course, our entire lot is less than 1/4 acre, so it isn’t a big time sink.
Nothing beats the fun of a zero-turn with lots of trees and bushes.
You know, it’s difficult to spend money that you don’t have. The poorest having an income drop of 5.5% is telling - the poorest don’t save much and spend almost every dollar that comes in.
It’s a good thing then that the current “stimulative” weak dollar policy does so much to increase their purchasing power!
Spending rose 5.6% from 2007 to 2009 for the poorest fifth of consumers, the most of any other income group, despite a 5.5% drop in after-tax income..
This clearly says that DESPITE a 5.5% decline in income, they spent 5.6% MORE than they did in 2007.
If they already spend almost every dime, how can they spend more if income dropped?
Either they have extra money and could afford to spend it, or “the poorest Americans” have access to credit..?
Maybe the extra spending is for food via food “stamps”.
food stamps.. i dunno.
Since they are funded with taxes, it means all tax dollars spent in the public sector should be considered “spending”… and there’s a lot more involved than food stamps… much of military.. SS.. Medicare and medicaid..
So, changes in amounts of government spending (or budget distribution) is considered a reduction or increase private sector spendings?
Something doesn’t feel right about ADDING all that govt spending to private sector spending.
According to that, shouldn’t govt spending be reduced?
What kind of accounting would allow the same dollar to be spent twice on the same thing, once by govt, and once by the recipient of that dollar?
5.6% over 2 years is just inflation.
More like “…had a stick poked through the front wheel of the bike.”
Foreclosure moratorium would only put off pain, housing analysts say
12:00 AM CDT on Wednesday, October 6, 2010
By STEVE BROWN / The Dallas Morning News
stevebrown@dallasnews.com
If Texas Attorney General Greg Abbott is successful in obtaining a moratorium on home foreclosures in the state, don’t expect a lasting change in home defaults.
A moratorium would only delay the foreclosures, housing industry analysts say.
Eventually those homeowners who aren’t able to keep up with the payments on their properties will have to be dealt with.
“This could definitely create some havoc in the market even if it turns out not to have much substance,” said Dr. James Gaines, an economist with the Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University. “It will definitely delay the whole process of cleaning up the market and especially resales for investors.
“This could potentially set the market back a good six months – maybe more.”
…
Putting pain off is what works for us. Six months is six more months for Obama to come up with another crappy plan that could then buy another six months. We take our “recovery” six months at a time.
Another six months…that the preferred way to handle expectations on our wars too. The shrinks working for the PTB must have the idea that six months is a special frame of reference for J6P.
Maybe someone gets a job in that six months.
It’s election time in Texas. Expect a moratorium to only last until Nov 2.
See my post below. State’s AGs are questioning the legitimacy of just who owns the mortgage and if there was proper due process… because it’s looking like there isn’t.
Goldman Sachs Says U.S. Economy May Be `Fairly Bad’
Goldman Sachs Group Inc. said the U.S. economy is likely to be “fairly bad” or “very bad” over the next six to nine months.
“We see two main scenarios,” analysts led by Jan Hatzius, the New York-based chief U.S. economist at the company, wrote in an e-mail to clients. “A fairly bad one in which the economy grows at a 1 1/2 percent to 2 percent rate through the middle of next year and the unemployment rate rises moderately to 10 percent, and a very bad one in which the economy returns to an outright recession.”
The Federal Reserve will probably move to spur growth as soon as its next meeting on Nov. 2-3, Hatzius said. Expectations for central bank action have already led to lower interest rates, higher stock prices and a weaker dollar, according to Goldman, one of the 18 primary dealers that are required to bid at government debt sales.
Fed Chairman Ben S. Bernanke and his fellow policy makers are debating whether to increase Treasury purchases to spur the U.S. economy by keeping borrowing costs low. U.S. five-year yields dropped to a record 1.1755 percent today amid signs the recovery is losing momentum.
‘Fairly bad’? We were shooting for ‘fairly middling’!
Push that string, push that string,
Push…that…string!
2000 - DOW hits 11,000 and times are heralded as a new golden age.
2010 - DOW hits 11,000 and perplexed Fed cannot even go on vacay.
2020 - DOW 11,000, yep I remember those crazy good times.
At the same time, Goldman expects bonuses to be “above average”.
Well duh! We all know that they are the real “geniuses” that “make things happen”.
Doing God’s Work pays well.
It sure does! Just ask any “charismatic” preacher!
When did Goldman move their HQ to Lake Woebegone?
LOL….
“When did Goldman move their HQ to Lake Woebegone?”
… right after Lake Titicaca dried up.
US offers mortgage aid to the jobless
Mass. homeowners could get $50,000; Some loans may not have to be repaid
By Jenifer B. McKim
Globe Staff / October 6, 2010
Unemployed homeowners may be able to borrow up to $50,000 to help them make monthly mortgage payments — and in some cases not have to pay the money back — under a federal program unveiled yesterday that allocates $61 million to Massachusetts.
The zero-interest loan program will benefit several thousand homeowners in the state who are facing foreclosure because they lost their jobs and have depleted their savings. Nationwide, about $1 billion is being allocated to assist 50,000 homeowners struggling to keep up with their mortgages, said Shaun Donovan, secretary of the Department of Housing and Urban Development.
“Countless people who have lost their jobs through no fault of their own temporarily lack the steady income they need to pay their mortgage,’’ Donovan said during a news conference at Urban Edge Community Development Corp. in Roxbury. Nonprofit community groups such as Urban Edge will be involved in administering the program.
“We can fight foreclosures and unemployment and we can help our communities recover,’’ he said.
…
Thats about 1200 jobless homedebtors they can help In Mazzland. A drop in the bucket. Yet another program that is there only to give the appearance of doing something to help the masses cope with the paradigm shift that body slammed them.
I just coined a new term to describe the way our economy works today:
“Lottery Economics”
Lose your job at just the right time, and cash in big—JACKPOT!!!
Lose your job at just the wrong time, and there is no special help for you.
Interesting times…
“Crap shoot economics”
It’s been this way for a few decades.
Record-setting Foreclosure Pace Continues
Updated: Oct 05, 2010 8:10 PM PDT
Featured Videos
* Foreclosures Set New Record in September
By Matt Smith
The number of people filing for foreclosure across Wisconsin reached a new record last month.
Preliminary reports by the Madison-based Foreclosure Alarm, which tracks the numbers, say more than 2,900 people filed in September. That’s more than the previous record set in March.
In Brown County, for example, Foreclosure Alarm reports 118 people filing in September compared to 116 in March.
In Outagamie County, 85 people filed last month compared to 79 in March.
The reality of the foreclosure crisis is in the middle of Northeast Wisconsin neighborhoods.
“Lots of garbage,” Scott Sonnabend notes, “and some serious cat smells.”
The distinct smell is the first thing you notice, and then you look around the house and see how disheveled it was left. Nothing, it seems, was taken to the curb.
“A lot of people are surprised by this, honestly. I’ve been doing this about seven years now, and I’ve turned quite a few homes that this is pretty much what I suspect.”
Sonnabend is a real estate agent who, on the side, flips foreclosed homes like the one we visited in Ashwaubenon.
He took us around Tuesday to several foreclosed homes he now owns and is looking to sell.
“We’re hoping for a sale within 90 days,” he said.
…
Since when do people file for their own foreclosures?
Take my house, please!
“Since when do people file for their own foreclosures?”
When they mail the keys in as they abandon the house?
“Since when do people file for their own foreclosures?Take my house, please!”
Deed in lieu? These kinds of people the ones that HBB’ers want. I know I want mark-to-fantasy over ASAP. These people are our heroes!!
Let’s get reaaaadddddddddyyy to maaaiiiiillllllllll those keys in!
Foreclosure, bankruptcy, what’s the diff…
In BK you can choose to keep (as in continue paying the mortgage) the house. I think its called “reaffirming”.
Nice find Pbear…
Marion Centre mall in foreclosure
BY JOHN JARVIS • The Marion Star • October 6, 2010
MARION - Marion Centre, formerly Southland Mall, will be up for sheriff’s sale after Marion County Common Pleas Court granted a motion filed by the Kansas bank that owns the mortgage on the shopping center.
Judge William Finnegan granted Royal Bank of Canada its summary judgment seeking foreclosure on the mall property, which is located at 1509 Marion-Waldo Road.
Cabot Northpark Southland Leaseco LLC owes $92,183,662 plus interest at a rate of 11.39 percent per year on the property purchased by Cabot Investment Properties on Aug. 24, 2007. Cabot Investment Properties, which has offices in New York and Boston, purchased the 41-acre retail property as part of a three-mall package, which included malls in Ashtabula and Marion, Ind. A parallel foreclosure action is being pursued on the Northpark Mall in Marion, Ind.
Standard language for a foreclosure decree states unless the amount owed is paid in full within three days of the decree a sheriff’s sale shall be ordered. Finnegan filed the foreclosure decree on Sept. 23.
David Fornshell, a Cincinnati attorney representing Royal Bank of Canada, said his firm, Dinsmore & Shohl, made the court filing, which he said will initiate the sheriff’s sale process. He estimated the sheriff’s sale would take place in 60 to 90 days.
“Unfortunately, the nature of the economy is that a lot of these retail malls are struggling in this environment,” Fornshell said.
Adding that many such malls were purchased in 2004 and 2005, he said, “This mall is not unlike a lot of malls out there.”
Fornshell said Columbus-area shopping centers such as Easton and Polaris drew customers away from smaller malls such as Marion Centre. “That, combined with the economy, has put a lot of pressure on these establishments, and unfortunately, many of them are just not making it at their current debt level.”
…
Heck, we’ve got a brand new mall (what do the call them now … lifestyle centers!) Called The Promenades at Centerra that was foreclosed about 5 years after it opened. The creditors have tried to auction it off but there are no takers.
The developer came to our biz school and showed our class the powerpoints he showed to investors. They were chock full of lies, the biggest one being the average and median HH incomes which which were exagerated by almost $20K.
Neighboring Fort Collins, not to be out done, opened their own “lifestyle center”, which is code for a fancy and very big strip mall anchored by department stores (In Centerra’s case it was a Macy’s and a Best Buy). Now both are as busy as a grave yard.
I hear the grave yeards are doing good business lately as people try to beat out the death tax.
say you’re worth $10,000,000 with no debt..
If you die before Dec 31st, your kids get about $9,500,000.
Die after that, and the kids get something like $5,000,000 after taxes.
so, you got a $4,500,000 bounty on your head..
“Here mom. Have one of these cookies. I baked them specially for you.”
American family values? I guess it explains a lot …
family values.. ?
Making it very profitable to kill someone.. isn’t that called moral hazard?
Just saying it even is a moral hazard to kill a family member, or anyone of rthat matter (as in its not utterly unthinkable) says a lot about us.
Who is “us”? Everyone?
Is there a dollar amount you’d accept to murder someone?
I think killing for money says a lot about some people, but I want to believe they are relatively few among us.
otoh, everyone is capable of wishing someone dead without any expectation of even a penny in compensation, and that says as much about us as anything.
Indoor malls have been dying in the USA for some time. They either just become abandoned in place (I see alot of this in DFW..) or replaced with the aftermentioned “Lifestyle Center” strip mall concept.
In Asia however malls are going strong. When I traveled to the Philippines last month they have brand new huge malls all over the city. There is one - SM City Mall of Asia that I think is the second or third largest mall in the world. The one that was connected to my hotel was one of older ones however it had seven levels and all the store spaces were full. Also there were thousands of smiling, happy Filipinos and very few were overweight despite having one whole level in the mall with a massive variety of deep fried foods…
I think Americans take to the “Lifestyle Center” concept so they can DRIVE up to the stores and not have to walk their fat a***s around anymore to shop.
“I think Americans take to the “Lifestyle Center” concept so they can DRIVE up to the stores and not have to walk their fat a***s around anymore to shop.”
That works if you’re going to a single store (it also saves time). I did see people walking around, especially in the cold before Christmas.
….and this happening in the red hot recovery zone of Central Ohio. You want to see zombie shopping centers dive a hundred miles north. Maybe the Obloviator can bring the family along on his next trip up here; Michelle alone might bail out a few shops.
Private Sector Hiring in Sept. Takes Unexpected Drop, Falls 39,000…
It’s the weather.
Or back to school.
Or sunspots.
Or the Spanish Inquisition!
Or the Spanish Inquisition!
LOL.
Nobody ever expects that.
Labor Day which unexpectedly fell into September this year.
/sarcasm off
Labor Day which unexpectedly fell into September this year.
Who could have seen it coming?
Un… un… un… (say it with me folks) UN-EXPECTED!
Hey, I have a great idea: How’s about if Uncle Sam forecloses on the Megabanks that were among the key contributors to this crisis, then invokes the Sherman Antitrust Act to chop them up into too-small-to-bail, non-systemically-risky pieces? I’m guessing the reintroduction of competition into the mortgage lending sector could go a very long way towards avoiding future systemic risk crises in the housing market.
Sen. Menendez raises foreclosure moratorium idea
By Corbett B. Daly
WASHINGTON | Tue Oct 5, 2010 5:18pm EDT
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - An influential U.S. senator on Tuesday raised the prospect of an industry-wide moratorium on foreclosures as he pressed three banks accused of improperly kicking borrowers out of their homes to outline steps they are taking to fix their procedures.
“It is simply inexcusable that proper oversight proceedings were not in place, especially when dealing with matters as monumental as the seizure of a family’s home,” Senator Robert Menendez wrote to the heads of JPMorgan Chase and Co, Bank of America Corp and Ally Financial Inc, formerly known as GMAC and 56.3 percent-owned by taxpayers.
“At least one credit rating agency, Fitch, states that it believes this problem is widespread among banks and servicers, which raises the question of whether other banks should impose a moratorium until this lack of oversight is corrected,” wrote Menendez, the head of a Senate subcommittee on housing.
Lenders are scrambling to defend and improve their foreclosure procedures, under scrutiny in state courts and from regulators.
The issue came to the forefront last month when Ally revealed that officials had signed thousands of affidavits supporting such proceedings without having personal knowledge of the borrower’s situation.
Banks are expected to take over a record 1.2 million homes this year, up from about 1 million last year and just 100,000 as recently as 2005, real estate data company RealtyTrac Inc said last week.
…
OK so here’s a question.
This higher rate of foreclosures has been at or near this level for almost 3 years now. Why is this just now becoming, or being noticed as, a problem?
November elections!
Hmmm - wouldn’t the current crop though not want to point out problems that happened on their watch?
“Why is this just now becoming, or being noticed as, a problem?”
1. It has lasted much longer than expected.
2. Shadow inventory has been continuously piling up over the period, as the number of homes sold cannot keep up with the number of homes going into default and/or foreclosure.
“Shadow inventory has been continuously piling up over the period”
I’ve noticed this with my “walk the dog” index. There are about 6 empty houses on our regular route. Two have “For sales” signs in front and look moderately maintained. The other 4 have the telltale “dead lawn with weeds” with papers taped to their front doors. What is interesting in our hood is that the distressed properties are at the low end of the neighborhood, with zEstimates in the high 100’s to low 200s. I haven’t seen any forclosures in the higher end (300-500K) … yet.
my “walk the dog” index….
Also when you look at houses on Redfin, half of them have no furniture in them. Some are staged with really nice furniture but you can easily spot those ones.
Once again, duration. It’s fall 2010, this was all supposed to be done and over with by now - or so they said in 2008.
“It’s fall 2010, this was all supposed to be done and over with by now - or so they said in 2008.”
Yup — was supposed to be over and done with by ‘next year’ in every year so far since the housing bubble popped. One of these years the serial bottom callers are gonna nail it, and they will never let you hear the end of it once they do.
“How’s about if Uncle Sam forecloses on the Megabanks “
This may happen yet… the states’ AGs are waking up to the fact that the banks may not actually own the mortgages and do not legally have the power to foreclose and repossess.
CDOs anyone?
BofA to Exit Wholesale Lending
NEW YORK—Bank of America Corp. will exit the wholesale mortgage-lending business Tuesday, limiting its dealings with mortgage brokers as it focuses on loans made with consumers and community banks.
But some fear the move could leave fewer options for consumers as they shop for the most competitive mortgage rates.
The decision also leaves Wells Fargo & Co. as a main player in the wholesale game, which lets consumers secure loans through mortgage brokers instead of the bank directly. Last year, J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. said it would no longer purchase loans originated by brokers, noting in an internal memo that loans done by Chase professionals outperformed those originated by brokers.
“… noting in an internal memo that loans done by Chase professionals outperformed those oritginated by brokers.”
Lol. What a surprise. The Chase employees may LOSE THEIR JOBS if the loan goes bad, while the loan broker can simply move on to another lender.
“But some fear the move could leave fewer options for consumers…”
Who needs options when Uncle Sugar has his hand in the game?
“But some fear the move could leave fewer options for consumers…”
First, you have to have money to have options.
http://ca.news.yahoo.com/s/afp/101006/business/ireland_finance_economy_ratings_fitch_1
Fitch downgrades Ireland due to bank’s bad debts. Of course, this is the same rating agency, along with its peers, that gave AAA ratings to bundled mortgage-backed securities. Still, it looks like the Eurozone financial crisis is heating up again.
Any word on downgrading the American AAA rating?
Stay tuned…
What we need is for more consumers to get back to their intended positions of consuming. Consuming = good! Cutting back and saving = bad.
Retailers’ Holiday Hinges on Discounts
Forecasters expect a better holiday season for U.S. retailers, but say the price will be more discounts to get consumers shopping.
The National Retail Federation expects holiday sales to rise 2.3% over last year to $447.1 billion, the biggest increase in three years, in part because of more aggressive pricing strategies. The tone was set by the discount-driven back-to-school shopping season, which wrapped up in September with strong sales of children’s and teen clothing, according to MasterCard Inc.’s SpendingPulse unit that tracks payment by cash, check and credit card.
“We expect a very, very competitive and aggressive Christmas and holiday selling season, price-focused,” Bill Simon, chief executive of Wal-Mart Stores Inc.’s U.S. business, said at a recent conference.
What do they expect?
Here in the Centennial State it was published the other day that the median HH income, after adjusting for inflation, has fallen almost 10% since 2000. I’m sure other states have similar numbers.
So not only is J6P making less dough, he’s up to his eyeballs in CC debt and the banlsters have reduced his credit limit and jacked up his rates. And the PTB act surprised when he spends less?
I met many a person a few years ago who’s income had fallen 33% since the 1990s.
Hundreds. And that was just the company I was at.
It’s a good thing for them that gasoline sales will be counted as retail sales. (but prices not in the core CPI of course)
Noticed that, did you? You have to love it.
Right now we are in Halloween season. For many years yuppies spent a lot on costumes and assorted Halloween trinkets/decorations. It will be interesting to see the sales results of seasonal Halloween merchandise, as this may have some predictive value for the folllowing Christmas season.
Halloween is a giant lingere show for that crowd.
I
creditblame Elvira.Not that there’s anything wrong with that-
I live in a gothic victorian house, and we are finally getting around to really decorating the place for Halloween this year.
I ordered quite a bit of stuff on-line the past month.
Surprisingly, a lot of it was out out stock when I ordered 4-5 weeks before Halloween.
From other anecdotal evidence, I believe retailers are carrying less quantities of items this year. Inventory management, I guess. Apparently they don’t want to be caught with anything left over.
(I should add, out of stock with no plans for restocking (no PO date))
Yeah…Eddie ran into the same problem looking for a car…Thought the fact that there was no availability of the model he wanted was evidence of our booming economy…
I sure got tired of it, too, especially the younger boomers who would whine if I didn’t go along and dress up too. Meh.
And I’m the neighborhood meanie who doesn’t answer the door on Halloween.
Truth be told, that seems to be the default mode in Tucson. Very few trick-or-treaters. And very few households offering treats.
So are we. We have a bench on our front prorch. We moved it to block the front door. Works like a charm.
My holiday spending plans will be limited to spending *time* with my elderly parents, who already have every *thing* they could possibly want.
And, while I’m with them, I’ll probably find at least one cleaning or repair project to tackle. They always appreciate that.
Reading the financial press today (Bloomberg, WSJ) it is clear that a consensus is emerging at the Fed that inflation is the only way out of our massive debts.
http://noir.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aKLfrjoBty8w&pos=3
Inflation would reduce the burden on private sector and household borrowers, and reduce the burden of state and local debts and pensions. And inflation would push down the dollar, pushing back against those who have kept their currency high, reducing the trade gap.
Savers would be killed; spenders wouldn’t fare so well either because wages would probably lag behind price increases. But the latter is probably true of inflation OR deflation.
The question is, can they do it even if they want to? How far would they have to go?
This has always been the obvious play imo. Think how the sheeple will react.
Little Johnny’s house is now “worth” a lot more now. Johnny’s happy.
LJ’s 201 is now back to a 401. More smiles from LJ.
LJ is getting raises at work (assuming he has a job). More glee.
LJ does begin to notice the water appears to be getting warmer though.
Inflation is the only politically acceptable exit strategy for this mess. I will say it again for those that haven’t heard me say it before. My generation (I’m 47) will bear the brunt of this great reset. We, who have a lifetime of contributing to this system have the most to lose. I’m talking about myself and people like Dio, X-fixer, etc.
In my best Roger Daltrey voice, “The kids will be alright”. If you look at other economic collapses, Argentina, Russia, etc, the economy comes back soon, relatively speaking.
Of course we could go the way of Japan and extend & pretend. I personally don’t think the people will tolerate that.
YMMV
“LJ is getting raises at work…”
In theory - yes, in historical experience (1970s) - yes. But today, is this a given? I think not.
Raises??
No way, raises will be reserved for the execs at the top and government emlpoyees.
“LJ is getting raises at work (assuming he has a job). More glee.”
Ah…..no. The CEO of the company LJ works for gets a bigger bonus.
“…it is clear that a consensus is emerging at the Fed that inflation is the only way out of our massive debts.”
It took them until now to figure this out? I think not. The conundrum is that of how to create ‘higher than expected’ inflation while pretending to maintain a stable currency.
“It took them until now to figure this out? I think not.”
Agreed, it’s getting harder and harder for them to kick the can down the road.
..Savers would be killed..
That’s true if all one has is cash. Having all your eggs in one basket is very risky.
If you’re half cash, half stocks, things will probably even out.
“That’s true if all one has is cash. Having all your eggs in one basket is very risky.”
What if you are retired, and your main source of income is a fixed-income pension. Guess you are pretty much screwed then, no?
Retirement planning is supposed to begin long before you’re retired.
Who screwed who?
Yeah, too bad about all that offshoring over the last 30 years. Tough for them, eh?
eco.. do me a favor..
would you make a list of EVERYTHING you think you’re entitled to and post it somewhere we can read it?
I hate these confrontations and the list will tell me what subjects to avoid.
World Leaders To Discuss Averting Currency War
by Tom Gjelten
NPR
When finance ministers gather in Washington D.C. later this week, they’ll talk about how to avert a currency war.
Governments around the world are disappointed that their economies are recovering so slowly, and they’re seeking new ways to boost growth.
One option is to devalue their currencies.
With their products priced more cheaply in the world market, they get an edge over their competitors. But sometimes the competitors just follow suit.
The United States blames China for its low exchange rate, but Japan, Switzerland, South Korea, Taiwan and Brazil have all taken steps recently to cheapen their currencies.
When everyone devalues, the result is a currency war. There can be chaos in the world economy — even global deflation.
With the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank fall meetings this weekend, finance ministers will be urged to cooperate rather than compete on the currency front.
U.S. officials are calling on the IMF to impose some badly needed discipline.
The Institute of International Finance, representing the world’s leading banks, this week urged governments to “hammer out an understanding,” and let their currencies find their natural market value.
“U.S. officials are calling on the IMF to impose some badly needed discipline.”
Physician, heal thyself!
“Governments around the world are disappointed that their economies are recovering so slowly, and they’re seeking new ways to boost growth.”
Oh, and hey, local pols are promising they can bring jobs to my third-rate state with some minor tweaking of the tax code…as if this recession weren’t happening everywhere else in the freaking WORLD…after all it’s so purty in Montana and everyone wants to live and do business here!
Currency war? If they don’t figure something out, it’ll be war, alright.
Holy cow!
I’m in Belgium at the moment staying at an amazing B&B in Bruges…. I had an interesting conversation this morning with my host about taxes and social programs in Belgium.
She said the local joke is that you work for the government Jan through September because she only gets to keep 30 out of 120 euros after federal, city, property and social taxes.
However, everyone has free health care and education. Women can retire at 60 and men at 65.
A 75% tax bracket?!!!
And people bitch about taxes being too high in the US?
She said a lot of middle and African people love moving here because of social benefits (ie, they get money for each child they pop).
She also asked about the middle class in the US because she said most people in Belgium are either rich or not. I said America gives the impression of having a middle class because most people buy things using credit, which is really fake wealth…
she said most people in Belgium are either rich or not
I thought free health care and education were supposed to ensure a strong middle class. She must be wrong, or you misunderstood her. Ask her again.
(Caveat to my snarky comment: I realize that often we get such a viewpoint from foreigners, taking it as gospel since it’s from someone who lives that life. However people’s comments about their own country’s welfare - as we see here - are often very much tainted by their political views. As such - you always have to take them with a big grain of salt. E.g. I’ll bet if you asked some other people in Belgium with different political views they’d say there’s a strong middle class there, and they’d state it’s due in large part to the social support systems.)
You can also not have a middle class by not having a lower class. Which may well be the case in some of the smaller European nations.
You mean like Andorra? Bet they have a very lax immigration policy.
Monaco, Lithuania, and/or Andorra.
If there is a place with no lower class, who does menial or unskilled labor work? Or are you saying that the guy who mows the lawn (or some equivalent in that country) is deemed middle class?
There are middle eastern countries where pretty much all the citizens are well-off, and immigrants do all the menial labor. I suspect it is similar in some of the smaller European countries. The quality of life is pretty good, even for the comparatively ‘poor’. Hence you could argue, as joey points out below, that there is no middle class, because there is no lower class for it to be above.
Imagine a rich coastal town in California, like Sausalito. Now imagine a small country like that.
When nothing exists below middle class, why call them middle? Why not call them the poorest?
And subjective perception might be a part of it, kind of like the way Americans with wildly differing incomes describe themselves as “middle class”.
And if I remember correctly, for us “tax freedom day” usually comes around April, but since we don’t get health care and other stuff for our taxes we’ve gotta work some more time for the insurance companies and college tuition payments, etc.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tax_Freedom_Day
That’s only Federal. If you include state, local, etc. I think it’s sometime in August.
If you include bank interest, for a lot of people it is next February.
“she said most people in Belgium are either rich”
There are things that employers do in many countries to get around the tax laws: I.e. company cars for higher level employees, etc. (This may have changed)
Also, the self employed abd business owners do the same. Write off everything they can as an “expense”. I have a friend who owns a small biz (couple hundred employees). The company owns everything: his house, his cars, his airplane, the vacation house, etc.
Also, the self employed abd business owners do the same. Write off everything they can as an “expense”. I have a friend who owns a small biz (couple hundred employees). The company owns everything: his house, his cars, his airplane, the vacation house, etc.
This sounds a tad excessive. I can see writing off things like office equipment and computers, but one’s personal residence? Gimme a break!
The CEO of my former company lives in a “commutable” area in New Jersey… the company pays six figures yearly for an apartment for him in NYC.
The IRS figured those scams out long ago. Company owned apartments, vehicles, airplanes etc are huge red flags. Documentation of business use had better be squeeky clean or Income will be assessed. Happens all the time.
And the company grosses up the pay so their take home is the same as it would be if they hadn’t gotten caught.
“This sounds a tad excessive. I can see writing off things like office equipment and computers, but one’s personal residence? Gimme a break!”
Clarification: This is not in the US. But yes, he would charge everything he could to the company.
Don’t forget to visit the Tintin store in Bruges!
Well - all the markets seem to be stuck on “follow trend” lately, don’t they? Everything’s up again today.
Price equals Value. If the price goes up then the value must be going up.
(snark)
Price equals Value won’t work for things where Value can be determined. If a dozen eggs go up a dollar consumers cut back on their egg purchases, not increase them.
But if Value cannot be determined then Price is the indicator that is relied on.
Can anybody here tell me what the value price of gold is?
Historically, 1 oz equals the “value” of a good suit. I think that you will that this relationship is still intact. This measure takes in account both labor costs and the price of wool etc.
Is the suit from Hong Kong?
No. But I do believe that gold is still a bit under priced so the quality of the suit will improve. During, the Clinton years two bubbles were in play due to the cheap money of the Greenspan era. Sec. Rubin helped out this by taking various actions to depress the price of gold to hide the creation of a bubble economy. This story is its own blog and I will leave it to others to explain.
Thus, the price of gold did not give a true warning of the cost of printing too much fiat money because it was being manipulated. One of the bubbles the Internet bubble deflated during the last of the Clinton administration but the second bubble did not deflate. The reaction of the Bush Administration and Greenspan to the collapse of the first bubble and 9/11 was to inflate the housing bubble even more.
The truth is what occurred during the Clinton and Bush II were bubble economies based on cheap money so it remains to be see whether this country’s economy can even function in a non-bubble environment.
“I do believe that gold is still a bit under priced”
I believe that you have hit upon the definition of the value of gold.
P.S. The greatest expansion of credit in history began before Clinton IMPO.
You are possibly forgetting the henfore.
Can anybody here tell me what the value price of gold is?
Posted something to the effect of this a few weeks ago -
Anyone who tries is a fool. Gold’s value in a fiat money world is mostly as insurance. Specifically - insurance against dollar default.
Insurance companies spend millions of dollars a year on highly-educated actuaries in order properly value their policies. These are based usually on millions of precedents of payout - millions of car wrecks to value auto insurance; millions of house problems to value homeowners insurance, millions of deaths to value life insurance.
The problem with the US$ is - there are exactly zero precedents upon which to place the value, since the dollar has never defaulted.
So - it’s value is based upon the collective guesses of millions of buyers/owners/sellers as to if, when, and how a US$ default may happen. As such; it’s kind of like trying to put a value on a stock of a company that has a great idea and in development of a brand new product, but doesn’t yet have any revenue and of course there no dividend payouts; i.e. the company has value but no way of measuring its “fundamental” value. About the best you can do is make an educated guess.
value=quality/price
therefore if quality is the same, price is the inverse of quality.
quality can be anything you want it to be, but with gold i would say the only variable quality would be it’s purity. therefore, with gold it seems that value is always the inverse of price which seems meaningless since quality is always the purity of gold.
it seems all variable characteristics of gold are related to its purity.
what other form could quality take with gold?
therefore if quality is the same, price is the inverse of quality.
that should be “therefore if quality is the same, price is the inverse of value.
Historically 1 oz of gold was about the monthly wage for an unskilled worker. If you use minimum wage you get 173x$7.25 = $1256
During time of financial and political turmoil it is anybody’s guess.
Great info and probably easy to use than the suit comparison.
As another point of info there’s roughly (just under) 1 ounce of gold per person in the world. This has remained somewhat constant:
Current: ~5 billion ounces, 6.8B people.
1900: 1 billion ounces, 1.65B people.
The rate of accumulation (due to production growth) has actually grown slightly faster than the rate of population, making gold slightly less valuable per given population unit. However if you measured vs. “wealth units” (the amount of “stuff” we’ve also accumulated - e.g. houses), which has also gone up over time per person, it’s probably roughly equal. So then back to the suit thing - even though the amount of gold per person has gone up somewhat; the amount of suits per person also has, so it ends up a wash - gold is still worth 1 ounce per suit. However it may at the same time (validly) become worth less than an unskilled worker’s salary for one month.
Since gold is (primarily) insurance against dollars being worthless, it cannot be valued in terms of dollars. (Gold true value is evident only when there are no dollars.)
So, first construct a scenario where dollars are worthless.
Everyone must eat and defend themselves and gold, being the only sort of “money” in existance, would be conserved and spent on food and ammo.. and little else.
So divide all the existing gold by all the existing food and ammo. The result is the true value of gold.
Can anybody here tell me what the value price of gold is?”
what does it cost to mine it these days ?
Q1 10 average gold
mine cash costs hit
$544/oz, up $29/oz
compared with Q4
09.
I expect as the price of gold goes up more high cost mines will open, and then…..
Price equals Value.
yep, for everyone that doesn’t understand value.
Price does not equal value, however, when prices are dropping. Then there’s bargains to be had. It’s always a good time to buy whatever I’m selling.
Price does not equal value, however, when prices are dropping.
when all else is equal (quality is equal), as prices drop, value rises.
Sucker rally for year-end bonuses.
WASHINGTON (AP) — Local tax revenue fell this year by the steepest amount in 25 years, with falling home prices just beginning to drag down property tax receipts.
The National League of Cities says that local governments’ property tax revenue fell 1.8 percent in fiscal year 2010, the first drop in the 25 years the survey has been conducted. Overall, tax revenue fell 3.2 percent in 2010, and cities cut spending by 2.3 percent.
Might this be amongst the reasons Daley is retiring as our mayor? The story goes on to say it’s the first decline since 1985 - and he’s been mayor since 1989.
Might this be amongst the reasons Daley is retiring as our mayor? The story goes on to say it’s the first decline since 1985 - and he’s been mayor since 1989.
Probably is.
BTW, the mayor of Tucson has been in office since 1999, and, to put it mildly, our fair city’s finances are not in good shape. The “wants to spend more time with his family” rumors are starting to swirl, even though the next mayoral election isn’t ’til 2011.
And the revenue slide will continue IMO…As I have said numerous times, they are just going to raise the fee’s to bridge the gap…A year ago, my local muni instituted a utility turn-on & turn-off fee of $20…So, each time there is a turnover of any tenant its a $40. check to the muni…They just raised the fee only one year later…Its now $25….Thats a 25% increase my friends and they are doing it in “every” area of service provided…
But I thought inflation was 3-4%?
When unusually uncertain, print print print.
* MARKETS
* OCTOBER 4, 2010
Central Banks Open Spigot
Stocks Leap as Japan Launches Bond Buying, Fed Official Urges More Easing
By MEGUMI FUJIKAWA in Tokyo and DAVID WESSEL in Washington
The developed world’s central banks are moving—at varying speeds and intensity—to respond to a weak recovery, reduce the risks of a global deflation and restrain their currencies from rising against those of their trading partners.
On Tuesday, it was the Bank of Japan’s move. Anticipating that the U.S. Federal Reserve will resume large-scale purchases of U.S. Treasury bonds and confronted with strong domestic political pressure to spur growth and restrain a rising yen, the Japanese central bank launched a bond-buying program. It said it would spend 5 trillion yen ($60 billion) to buy government bonds, corporate IOUs, real-estate investment trust funds and exchange-traded funds—the latter two a departure from past practice.
The world’s main central banks are moving to respond to a weak global recovery, aiming to reduce global deflation risks and to stop their currencies from rising against those of trading partners. David Wessel discusses. Also, Neil King says Tea Party groups are setting aside their differences with the GOP and backing mainstream GOP candidates in midterm elections.
“If a central bank tries to seek greater impact from its monetary policy, there is no choice but to jump into such a world,” said Masaaki Shirakawa, governor of the Bank of Japan.
Central bankers elsewhere are strongly indicating that they are preparing to open credit spigots to reflate their economies at a time when fiscal policy is stalled or contracting.
In the U.S., Fed officials are signaling that the huge bond-buying effort they ended in March is likely to be resumed, perhaps as soon as its Nov. 2-3 meeting. “The unemployment rate is too high; inflation is lower than what I think price stability is,” Charles Evans, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, told The Wall Street Journal in an interview, echoing earlier comments by Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke and New York Fed President William Dudley. “If we were to do more large-scale asset purchases, namely Treasurys, that would have a beneficial effect.”
…
Last time I checked, the dollar was already down by over 97 percent relative to its 1968 price of $35/oz. But I guess that doesn’t preclude the Fed from undertaking further quantitative easing of the dollar’s value. Tough rocks for retirees on fixed income pensions, though.
* HEARD ON THE STREET
* OCTOBER 6, 2010
Gold Goes on a Print Run
By ROLFE WINKLER
Gold may be a barbarous relic, but in barbarous monetary times, relics do well. Economist Steve Keen’s spin on the famous John Maynard Keynes quote nicely encapsulates today’s gold trade.
The Bank of Japan’s decision to beef up asset purchases, which can now include such rock-solid assets as exchange-traded funds and real-estate investment trusts, has gold bulls salivating over what unconventional weapons the Federal Reserve may deploy to rekindle inflation. At $1,338.90 a troy ounce, the metal has risen 22% this year. The huge force of deleveraging central banks must overcome in their quest to reflate economies has fueled expectations of more spectacular monetary pyrotechnics.
In the U.S., the Fed’s conventional method for stoking demand and inflation, lowering rates to encourage more borrowing, is failing because rates near zero can’t be pushed lower. So much debt has been taken on relative to income that consumers finally have to pay down debt, or have it written off, before they take on more.
Despite a decline from its peak, combined public and private debt still stands at 344% of gross domestic product, according to Nomura. And this excludes the government’s entitlement obligations, which under some estimates more than double that number.
To create inflation against that backdrop looks likely to require far more aggressive stimulus than has been used, say gold bulls. Indeed, they believe the Fed’s commitment to drive up inflation eventually may lead to the central bank effectively funding ongoing deficits, or even new government stimulus, by purchasing huge amounts of Treasurys. The Bank of Japan wanted to persuade investors it hasn’t crossed that line Tuesday, in part by buying a range of assets rather than just government bonds.
If money printing, or quantitative easing, goes far enough in the U.S. it eventually could stoke serious hard-asset price inflation, even if consumer prices lag behind. It also could undermine the greenback further, in itself pushing up dollar-denominated gold prices.
…
Despite a decline from its peak, combined public and private debt still stands at 344% of gross domestic product
As of Q2 that figure was actually starting back upwards.
link
Q4 2009: 345.76%
Q1 2010: 340.33%
Q2 2010: 341.37%
(Per flow-of-funds report)
Through the lens of the rear view mirror, it looks like Raygun really kicked the U.S. underwater problem into overdrive. I remember my dad showing me articles about how our debt accumulation had ramped up way back in the 1980s. I find it most interesting how the seeds planted by this policy change took three decades to bear a bitter harvest.
W/regards to policy change (referring to Reaganomics?) - some thoughts -
There were actually three big things that happened around that time:
1. Reagan’s policy changes (mainly high-end tax reductions and reduced regulations)
2. Interest rates went down a lot (e.g. FF rate 19% in 1981 to 8% in 1985)
3. Great increase in quality imports from Japan - Toyotas, cameras, TVs, etc. Japan “caught up” after its WWII obliteration. Same with Germany and high-end cars - BMWs etc.
I know of course many on here point to #1 as the driving factor (supply-side economics). You can’t ignore the other two though. #3 of course has been a slow ramp since really the early 70’s or even 60’s. As a result our economy started to stagnate in the 70’s, and really was dead by the early 1980’s. Once interest rates were lowered (#2) that was the big trigger to allow us to “borrow our way to prosperity” - which we did, and then did again in the mid 90’s when rates were lowered to 3%, and then did again in the mid 2000’s when rates were lowered to 1%, and now are doing again after rates are lowered to 0%.
Each time though the impact is less, and of course we’ve now reached a bottom - not feasible to go below 0.
Back to the “Reagan’s policies” thing - IMO the growth in debt and in GDP were by far more due to interest rate changes (#2) than to the tax and regulation policies. I don’t believe (someone correct me if I’m wrong) that those rate changes were actually considered part of Reagan’s policies - i.e. Reaganomics or Supply-side economics. In fact under Reaganomics the 4th plank is to control the money supply to reduce inflation - presumably that means raising interest rates - however I think that only applied to the first two years, when that indeed did happen. After that, not sure.
I was a college student back in the early Reagon era, so I still wasn’t as tuned into national economics like I was after I graduated, but I remember that interest rates spiked up significantly (by Volker) and then dropped even faster. So the notorious 13-17% interest rates lasted only a few months. Before that, rates were gyrating in the upper single digits most of the time.
AS to Reagon’s economic policy, you had the tax cuts, of course, but just as importantly was the massive build-up of the defense industry. That pumped a lot of money into the economy, financed with the quickly dropping interest rates.
I’m no policial student, but it seems to me that Reagon gambled on winning the cold war by spending more and more on defense until the USSR could not longer match out spending and collapsed (which it did). The gamble was that their economy would collapse before ours. We won that gamble (at the time) but as mentioned by others, it set a precedence and set off a debt spiral that may ultimately claim the US as a victum as well.
Pretty much on - Reagan did indeed explode the federal debt primarily by expanding the military (and by tax cuts - at least until GDP could catch up), however private debt actually went up faster than public debt even initially, relative to GDP at least:
% of GDP debt:
1980:
Fed: 25%
Private: 115%
1988:
Fed: 40% (up 15% of GDP)
Private: 161% (up 46% of GDP)
(for later reference:)
2007: (peak of housing bubble)
Fed: 36%
Private: 283%
Current:
Fed: 60%
Private: 265%
So even though the military buildup (and associated fed debt) up had some effect on GDP - the new private sector debt was a far bigger factor - there was over 3 times as much new private debt as there was federal debt.
And during Reagan’s military buildup, the
price of foreign oil magically fell well below
the cost of production for Russian oil, which
stripped them of their foreign currency which
helped their collapse.
Raygun had apparently never heard of MAD when he embarked on destroying Russia.
Mutual. Assured. Destruction.
Russia has now had 20 years to reorganize from it’s collapse and bankruptcy and we…. we’re just beginning ours. If not this time, then sure as hell next time.
Packman, thanks for posting the data.
I seem to recall that credit card usage exploded in the early/mid ’80s, which fits in nicely with your stats.
I can remember as a kid going ‘back-to-school” clothes shopping and my parents would pull out a BankAmeri-card or a store CC to pay for things. That was the only time they reached into their wallets for a CC. Christmas usually involved a lot of items on “lay-away”.
I think that kind of financial constraint faded quickly in the early ’80s.
It started with Oil Company credit cards for gas in the 70s. Then they all became Visa or MC and it was off to the races.
Remember when Shell used to give out those yellow happy face coffee mugs with a fillup?
Shell has never been big around here (but they do exist).
I do remember S&H Green Stamps. Lot’s of gas stations gave them out back in the ’70s. Now that I think about it, they gave out lots of stuff back then. Usually drinking glasses with local sports teams and such.
Shell did have those ‘Pest Strips’, no?
Can we, for the sake of argument, at least entertain the very remote prospect that the Fed does nothing Nov. 3? I mean you gotta admit, that would really be a curveball - the kind that causes the greatest pain to the greatest number (under current assumptions and conditions).
Just crossed back above $1350 spot price around 8:15am PST.
I’m still holding three times as much government securities than I do in precious metals, hanging on every deflationary post by Combotechie.
I sense gold’s price is going parabolic now, but I don’t claim to know how high it goes before it crashes back to earth.
Did you say gold or the S&P?
Yes.
I’ve got lots of three month T-Bills, for inflation of deflation. But I fear confiscation (mandatory automatic rollovers at 0.0% interest as an emergency measure).
If they do that who in their right mind wiill buy new ones? If it comes to that the Federal Reserve will be the only buyer (via banks). At that point greenbacks will be a valuable as TP.
You have just described WHEN they will do that — when there are no more buyers, the debt can’t go up anymore just down.
LOL! Sounds like a backhanded way of defaulting, without officially defaulting.
I’m still holding three times as much government securities than I do in precious metals
Both have done well, and are up huge; with people on each side pointing to the other as a bubble. It’ll be interesting to see which crashes first. We ought to set up some bets on HBB.
Boo Yah! Not that I respect Cramer. But I just want to say I agree. I bet every once in a blue moon.
Since gold isn’t in a bubble, and bonds are, I’m betting the bond bubble bursts first.
Does the IMF have some kind of monopoly on honest economists? I find sweet comfort in knowing that there are at least some experts out there who are more pessimistic than I am.
Investor Alert
My MarketWatch
Welcome, ProfessorBear
Oct. 6, 2010, 9:31 a.m. EDT
Real estate downturn could last 8 years: IMF
By Steve Goldstein, MarketWatch
WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) — The prospects in the global real estate sector are “dismal,” with a downturn that could last eight years, the International Monetary Fund warned Wednesday.
The IMF sees problems both in the “bust” countries, such as the United States, Spain and Ireland, and the “rebound” economies, such as the Asia-Pacific region, most Scandinavian countries, and Canada.
In the United States, residential investment remains severely depressed compared with past cycles, which the report said could be partly explained by the pattern in house prices and outstanding household debt. Making matters worse, the U.S. states where the house price bust was more pronounced are also where unemployment has increased the most.
“This relationship likely reflects the importance of the construction sector in these states’ economies as well as lower labor mobility resulting from problems in the housing sector,” the IMF said. Tax incentives in both the U.S. and the U.K. only temporarily increased activity.
“Especially in the United States, given the limited success of mortgage modification programs and the shadow inventory from foreclosures and delinquencies, this has renewed fears of a double dip in real estate markets. A lot will depend on the path of economic recovery: if employment creation remains low, risks of a double dip in housing naturally increase,” the IMF said.
There are other threats too, like record high delinquency rates on commercial mortgage-backed securities, and the $566 billion in commercial real estate debt due this year and next, according to data the IMF cited from Foresight Analytics.
Resets on adjustable-rate loans are looming, with limited refinance options because many of the loans are underwater.
…
“rebound economies”
Possibly the memo is still on the way to them.
““This relationship likely reflects the importance of the construction sector in these states’ economies as well as lower labor mobility resulting from problems in the housing sector,”
maybe…. but here in Ohio we had lots of construction, and we haven’t had the economic hit of some of the bubbliest areas.
antoher possible large factor: the bubble areas tended to be centers of home lending as well, so they took a big employment hit.
And of course, the housing ATM fed a lot of jobs and commissioned sales in the local economy. Housing ATM activity appears to have been much higher in the bubble sand states than in places like Ohio.
maybe…. but here in Ohio we had lots of construction, and we haven’t had the economic hit of some of the bubbliest areas.
While I was in Ohio this summer, I noticed that the Ohio Turnpike and its bridges got major rebuilds/upgrades/whatever. Well done work, too.
Ohio has been steadily replacing all its bridges for the past 5 or 7 years. Not just on the interstates, but on the back roads as well. And we are widening I-75 between Cincy and Dayton.
Much of this was financed by a 6 cent/gallon tax increase on gasoline some 5 years ago.
But you are right, at least the state had the foresight to begin infrastructure replacement years ago, and have stuck to their nice, steady, long-term plan.
Where’s CIBT? That guy could really post some stuff now.
Albuquerque Public Schools NM - Next Round of Budget Cuts could = up to 500 Layoffs
APS teachers union: 500 teachers could lose jobs
KOB Eyewitness News 4 has learned just how many APS teachers could lose their jobs in the next round of budget cuts. The number is staggering and teachers are already planning on taking action.
APS Teacher Union President Ellen Bernstein says if more cuts to educational funding occur later this year, up to 500 teachers could lose their jobs and those layoffs could start as early as November.
The decision on whether to cut all state departments, including education, by another 2 percent rests in the hands of Governor Bill Richardson and the state legislative finance committee.
“If at the end of October, they make another recommendation for another cut, it will be devastating to the schools,” says Bernstein.
Bernstein says APS teachers are already meeting to learn more about the looming threat of layoffs. Nothing is set in stone, but with a potential $52 million shortfall for Albuquerque Public Schools Bernstein says 500 teacher layoffs would be a worst-case scenario.
public teacher layoffs have been going on around here for over a year, but usually in much smaller numbers (20-30 per school district, plus a number of support personel).
Now local teachers unions are agreeing to pay freezes for the duration of the new contracts being signed.
Rock star Bill spent all the money on a slow speed train and loans to movie makers (who dont pay them back). NM has one of the highest drop out rates in the country, who needs teachers?
From Germany’s Der Speigel yesterday: An American bill imposing punitive tariffs on countries that undervalue their currencies is set to unleash a new trade war between the US and China. But in fact the whole global currency system is in a state of jeopardy. As confidence in the dollar drops, private investors are putting their faith in gold. ~ Currency Wars
OK, that train is leaving the station.
Anyone else out there wondering what the next train to the moon might be?
Anyone eles notice that rice is about 3x what is was a couple of years ago?
Anyone eles notice that rice is about 3x what is was a couple of years ago?
Let ‘em eat rice cakes!
Right?
California residents will vote in November on whether or not to legalize marijuana. If they do vote “yes,” says Harvard economics professor Jeffrey Miron, that should only be the beginning.
All drugs should be legalized nationwide, Miron says. Pot, cocaine, LSD, crystal-meth — you name it.
“Legalizing drugs would save roughly $41.3 billion per year in government expenditure on enforcement of prohibition. Of these savings, $25.7 billion would accrue to state and local governments, while $15.6 billion would accrue to the federal government,” Miron claims in a recent Cato Institute report he co-authored.
According to their website, “The report also estimates that drug legalization would yield tax revenue of $46.7 billion annually, assuming legal drugs were taxed at rates comparable to those on alcohol and tobacco. Approximately $8.7 billion of this revenue would result from legalization of marijuana and $38.0 billion from legalization of other drugs.”
We could almost finance TARP2 with the revenue on drug sales, someone notify GS.
So until you are 21, you are allowed to snort Crystal Meth but not drink beer?
the price of weed would fall to next to nothing as everyone with a bucket and some sun would grow their own. not nearly as much revenue as they think, unless they outlaw growing. It grows like a, uh, weed!
A now deceased friend was growing it and smoking it to alleviate the nausea caused by chemotherapy. He died of cancer in the spring of 2008.
And you know this how?
I only know one person who grows his own tabacco.
..Legalizing drugs would save roughly $41.3 billion per year in government expenditure on enforcement of prohibition…
Not only that.
When everyone’s stoned they’ll drive like 30 MPH on the freeway, reducing accidents to almost nothing. Imagine how much money that will save. We might be able to get rid of the Highway Patrol.
Not to mention the increase in MPG … (which for most cars has a peak around that speed)
back when the speed limit was 55, I was gifted a Ford Taurus for free, and fixed it up.. new tranny and other stuff.
So I wanna see what gas mileage is and take it on a 400 mile trip… flat 3-lane freeway in good weather for most of it, and into the mountains for about 100 miles.
I drive 55 max the whole way.. in the slow lane of course.
People are honking and passing me up of course, but I figure that it’s worth it and I stick to my plan without becoming a danger in some situations. That car got 48MPG.
meth drivers go slow?? He’s talking about making it ALL legal. Which seems more consistent IMO. They won’t be able to draw a bright line around pot, and still maintain everything else is bad. The trouble with liberalizing laws is that the remaining restrictions start to look more and more ludicrous, the way medical marijuana controls are looking right now.
Until ONE judge decides it is “unconstitutional” and voids the law and millions of votes…
Or does that only happen to “right-wing” CA referendums?
Thank goodness for caller ID!
A call just came in. From some local MetLife agent.
Now, y’all know me pretty well. I’m single and have no dependents. Which means that I probably wouldn’t be looking for life insurance, right?
Any-hoo, said agent didn’t leave a message.
Um, dude, when I’m cold calling and hit voice mail, I do leave messages. Although most of those calls never get returned, a few do. So why not give me some indication of what you’re selling? Is it life insurance? Health insurance? Or an invitation to lunch because you want to date me?
The robot dialers are getting sophisticated enough to tell if a human answers, or if the machine answers. I get at least one or two blank messages everyday.
If you do pick up the phone, there will probably be a delay of about 5 seconds, as the MetLife agent sees the red light, and reaches over and grabs his phone.
If you do pick up the phone, there will probably be a delay of about 5 seconds, as the MetLife agent sees the red light, and reaches over and grabs his phone.
True confession: I don’t always start my pitch when the other end says “Hello?” Reason: I have to toggle away from the HBB and get back to my leads list in order to say his/her name.
and reaches over and grabs his phone
["click"]
Yep, that’s EXACTLY what I do. If there’s any delay after I answer I hang up…
joeyinCalif
Red light district pretty much sums up what they did becoming a Met Life Agent.
Ins Agents lie through omission, imo.
heh.. yeah.. But at least “they” offer pleasure.
Yet, so much of what’s gone wrong in California is about immigration, which is why a trivial incident like “Housekeeper-Gate” is also vital.
The financial burden of providing social services to millions of the Third World’s poorest has contributed mightily to California’s catastrophic deficits, our above the national average unemployment, and skyrocketing rates of poverty and illiteracy. We arrived at insolvency one illegal housekeeper at a time.
California can’t be saved unless the next Governor cleans up this mess.
sold in 05
You are a wise Ca wage slave. A Hispanic Los Angeles Councilman, wants the criminal invaders to have a free class to teach them how to use the free public health system. The reason stated is when the “immigrants” are healthy, it’s better for everyone. What a great deal. Talk about embracing and rewarding the transgression of laws. We do we sign up?
We need an update on the stauts of TTT’s specuvestor house in Virginia. A year ago he had to rent it out at a huge loss. Maybe by now he has gotten a NOD. How do we find out the details?
ISTR that his house is outside of NYC. Westchester County, I think. And that he had to rent it for far less than his mortgage.
If I lived anywhere near it, I would TP it regularly.
Well, pressboardbox and all the rest of you mischief-makers, it’s time to stock up on TP, because I’ve got the address info right here.
-Still listed as his primary address.
-Paid $900k more than the 1998 price in 2004.
-Took out $400k loan against it in 2007.
-Ouch.
-Still listed as his primary address.
-Paid $900k more than the 1998 price in 2004.
-Took out $400k loan against it in 2007.
-Ouch.
Sleepless, are you referring to TTT’s house in suburban NYC?
Yep. Title search. Public record, no?
There’s not the slightest indication Whitman cared one wit about illegal immigration prior to her run for office. Her “tough” stand is actually malleable, depending on which audience she’s speaking to at the moment- tough on the westside, soft in East L.A. in fact she has had spanish billboards and ads saying she is in favor of amnesity,free education healthcare..then on the westside she talks tough….i pefer Brown at least he is not two faced,we know how he stands….legalize everyone and free everything….
I bet if she had given all that money to charities she would be doing much better in the polls. Just a personal theory of mine.
“i pefer Brown at least he is not two faced,we know how he stands….legalize everyone and free everything”….
That’s because people are ’smart’!
“That’s because people are ’smart’!”
Caught a little 1000 ways to die last night and I was thinking the exact same thing. The guy who ate coins was nothing compared to these guys snorting fire ants.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BSLfC6ZKd30 - 107k -
No Way!
Housing Slum -p Hurts Local Tax Revenue:
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Housing-slump-hurts-local-apf-1011018302.html?x=0&sec=topStories&pos=5&asset=&ccode=
Got to love the comments. For example:
“All these renters with 5 kids pay nothing for the schools.”
BWAHHHAAAAHAAAAHHAAAAA! Yep. Us renters are the problem.
Well, if the rent is less than LL’s PITI, then you ARE the problem..sort of.
I love all these links to stories with comments. Readers everywhere are really biting back now, lol.
From jsmineset dot com:
Trader Dan’s Commentary
This is precisely what we have been warning would occur with the vicious cycle created by the Fed’s Quantitative Easing monetary policy. The result of that policy has been a huge influx of speculative money flows into the commodity sector pushing up food prices across the board. We have argued at some point soon, the rising cost at the wholesale level as indicated by the CCI and the futures boards would translate into higher retail prices for consumers, who are already being pinched by stagnant wages and falling net worth. The result – consumers are forced to retreat on spending with the next result – a slowing economy – with the next result – more Quantitative Easing – with the next result – more rising prices as currency induced inflation in essentials rises further compounding the problem as the cycle repeats itself.
As long as the market is convinced that the Fed is going to set off another round of QE, it will go after the Dollar driving it lower forcing money into commodities making life miserable for a large swath of the American citizenry. The decision by the monetary authorities to deliberately sacrifice the Dollar is going to come back and haunt all of us for years to come.
Bread Lines Are Here:
Too bad Wal-China-Mart is the direct recipient of the “stimulus” and not some small American private businesses.
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Midnight-grocery-runs-capture-apf-1277376086.html?x=0&sec=topStories&pos=main&asset=&ccode=
An average of 43.3 million people, more than an eighth of the population, will get food stamps each month in the year that began Oct. 1, according to White House estimates….and these people already receive free health care….
Free food, free healthcare, free housing, free education. Is that what attracted early settlers to the North American continent?
Yes! Because it’s was only “fair”. The evil rich had it all across the pond and would not share. They had heard that if they came over to America everything thing was ‘free’ for the taking, and they all lived happily ever after in perfect harmony, until… The evil rich took it all again and would not share.
if just one of the 43.3 million ever said “thanks” to the workers who toil to keep them fed, God’s plan would be complete, and the world would end.
Without food stamps, the price of milk and cattle would plumet. Farmers/ranchers need to be more thankful.
Are you kidding? The recipients don’t get enough, you know. It’s never enough.
Let’s review why so many are needing food stamps
Outsourcing to countries with slave labor and immigration have made CEO class rich and working class poor.
To make good on Wall Streets gambling losses the FED has slashed interest rates and flooded the country with money. This has kept fuel and food prices high.
The real reason we have food stamps is to keep the poor from rioting or going on major crime spree which would hurt current politicians and the rich.
Again I’d do away with food stamps and well fare and unemployment and replace them with some sort of work.
Have at it, kiddies…
Because of Unpaid Fee, Firefighters Let Home Burn
(Oct. 6) — A small rural community in western Tennessee is outraged and the fire chief is nursing a black eye after firefighters stood by and watched a mobile home burn to the ground because the homeowner hadn’t paid a $75 municipal fee.
South Fulton city firefighters — equipped with trucks, hoses and other firefighting equipment — didn’t intervene to save Gene Cranick’s doublewide trailer home when it caught fire last week. But they did arrive on the scene to protect the house of a neighbor, who had paid his fire subscription fee.
linky:
http tinyurl com/2bwcuxq
Same thing happened in the Phoenix area a few years ago. Gave a real black eye to Rural Metro, a private fire company.
I thought Bernanke said that when a house catches fire in your neighborhood because the negligent neighbor was smoking in bed, you had to use your own resources to put the fire out? That was his analogy for supporting the bailout for the negligent megabanks, anyway.
that’s dumb.. it’s like Guido breaking the guy’s legs because he owes me $75. How am I gonna get my money now?
but seriously.. i didn’t know any community would be stupid enough to use that sort of system in the modern world. I thought it went out with the buggy whips.
Why not just cut the BS and admit that America is now a Third World country - we just pretend that we are not corrupt and broke. The fire dept should just be honest and ask for a bribe for “protection” same deal that occurs in many current Third World nations today…
We pretend that we are so much better than those “developing nations” but the way we are going with corruption in our public sector, neglect of critical social and physical infrastructure, etc fully expect many large cities in America to rival places like Manila and Mexico City in about 5 to 10 years.
For those who object to the mandate under Obama Care to purchase health insurance, here is how you would have to have health care work.
No insurance? Let them die, including the kids.
Not likely, and a moral hazard.
I dunno - that is a big risk to take to save $75…
It reminds me of the people who build houses on the east coast and forgo hurricane insurance.
People here build their trophy homes up in the trees, with the timber just hanging over the house because it looks so cool you know..then sweat out fire season. We all pay for their splendid protection.
Same here. Over 150 of them lost their houses a few weeks ago.
No firefighter-provided bailouts for deadbeats who don’t pay their subscription fee…
If they don’t have to pay why should anybody else have to pay?
now i remember where i saw it.. Antiques Roadshow
someone had these little, numbered, bronze plaques. They were nailed to homes that paid a particular, local private fire brigade (thus the number). I think that was a San Francisco show.. maybe Chicago.
Dated late 1800s or thereabouts if memory serves. Houses without the plaques .. well.. too bad for them.
hmm.. no direct hits searching for this, but it’s probably somewhere in wikipedia. One page (Fire Departments) mentions insurance companies involvement.
Aw what a shame! Gubmints having to make do with less. What’s next? I know, lets raise taxes that will fix it.
Housing slump hammers local government tax revenue
Falling home prices cause first drop in local property taxes since 1985; more pain to come
WASHINGTON (AP) — City tax revenues dropped this year by the most in 25 years, hit hard by falling home prices that could crimp local budgets for years to come.
Property tax revenue in U.S. cities fell 1.8 percent in fiscal year 2010, according to a report released Wednesday by the National League of Cities. It’s the first drop in the 25 years that the survey has been conducted.
Depressed home values are just beginning to affect property tax receipts and the impact could linger for at least two more years, the report said. The declines are only now being felt because real estate assessments lag changes in market values.
City governments are already facing tough choices between spending cuts and possible tax increases. Many are laying off workers and cutting services to make up for lost revenue. Strapped city budgets could increase already high unemployment and further restrain economic growth.
“While the recession might have officially ended for the national economy, cities are now in the eye of the storm,” said Chris Hoene, a director at the NLC and co-author of the report. “The pain is intensifying.”
Happening right here in Tucson. From today’s fishwrap:
Council OKs $8.3M more in cuts
BTW, the sales tax hike that they’re proposing is cratering in pre-election polling. This, despite the fact that we’re being told that it’s a temporary tax hike. Yeah, right.
“This, despite the fact that we’re being told that it’s a temporary tax hike. Yeah, right”.
Like someone once said…”Don’t pee on my head and tell me it’s raining”
Might be a long time before it gets better: http://www.marketwatch.com/story/real-estate-slump-could-last-8-years-imf-2010-10-06
Yippeee!!! Eight more years of the HBB!
Way to find the silver lining inside the ever darkening cloud, AZ Slim!
What matters is income. If incomes are going up and property values are going down, you can always raise the rates.
The problem is resident incomes are going down and public employee retiree and debt costs are going up.
Whoops - Greek debt and deficit figures to shoot up.
That’s gonna leave a mark.
Greek debt and deficit figures to shoot up: EU
Increased figures for Greek national debt and deficits covering contested data from 2006 to 2009 will be published this month, the EU said on Wednesday after conducting its first invasive audit.
“The Greek deficit and debt figures will be revised upwards, the figures will be bigger,” said Amadeu Altafaj Tardio, the spokesman for the bloc’s economic affairs commissioner Olli Rehn.
In other (related?) news - anyone notice treasuries today? Yields are through the floor. 10-year at 2.37. Pretty closer to breaking the all-time record (end of 2008 - when there was a bit of… freaking out… going on.)
“…end of 2008 - when there was a bit of… freaking out… going on…”
Can anyone recall how the stock market fared in the ensuing quarter? I’m wondering how likely Eddie’s DJIA = 12K prediction is to come to fruition by year-end; I know this time is different and all…
FWIW though - the bulk of the plunge in treasury yields was after the first stock market plunge, or simultaneous with it. It didn’t precede it.
Yeah, this starting to get interesting again. And that poor ol’ Yen - back below 83. What’s the BOJ’s next move? Twenty years on and they’re still mashing the big red button.
“they’re still mashing the big red button.”
I LOL’d.
New Yorkers’ Income Falls for 1st Time in 70 Years ~ Reuters
The recession put a 3.1 percent dent in the personal incomes of New York state residents, who endured their first full-year decline in more than 70 years, according to a report released Tuesday.
Paychecks or net earnings tumbled 5.4 percent, while dividends, interest and rent slid 8.4 percent, to a grand total of nearly $908 billion, the state comptroller’s report said.
Not only did New Yorkers’ personal incomes fall “almost twice” as much as they did in the nation as a whole, but they have yet to recover to pre-recession levels, Comptroller Thomas DiNapoli said.
The drop occurred even though the job-destroying recession was milder in New York than in the rest of the country.
“The drop occurred even though the job-destroying recession was milder in New York than in the rest of the country.”
I can see how less job loss and more income decline could go hand-in-hand…
Iran’s oil exports could soon be cut by 25%, thanks to new Japanese sanctions. A report from Nomura Intl., a unit of Japan’s largest brokerage, says Iranian exports could fall from 2 million barrels a day to 1.5 million, “negatively affecting global supply while helping push oil prices higher.”
Japan suspended new oil and gas investments in Iran a month ago. More and more countries are signing on to sanctions as long as Iran refuses to abandon its nuclear program. Royal Dutch Shell Plc, France’s Total, Italy’s Eni and Norway’s Statoil are all winding down their investment in Iran.
Iranian Oil will just be sold to everyone thru 3rd party Country’s as it always has since the ‘79 Revolution
No news here move along….
I thought the answer was simple…Print, baby, print.
WASHINGTON (AP) — The risk of a destabilizing bout of deflation has grown as the United States and other countries struggle with weak economic recoveries and lingering financial problems.
That assessment, contained in a new International Monetary Fund report released Wednesday, comes as the Federal Reserve gears up to pump more money into the U.S. economy to strengthen the recovery and prevent any deflationary forces from taking hold. Japan flooded its stagnant economy with money Tuesday in a bid to fight deflation.
Deflation is a widespread drop in prices of goods and services, in the value of homes and stocks, and in wages. It crimps spending by people and businesses and makes it harder for them to pay down debts. All that hurts the economy.
“…comes as the Federal Reserve gears up to pump more money into the U.S. economy to strengthen the recovery and prevent any deflationary forces from taking hold.”
A closely-watched pot never boils over, except for Japanese pots.
It crimps spending by people and businesses and makes it harder for them to pay down debts. All that hurts the economy.
Time horizons folks, time horizons. “Hurts” is relative.
The phrase “quantitative easing” is a euphemism for monetary inflation.
“We are told that the Federal Reserve System or some other central bank may soon adopt a policy of quantitative easing. Whoever says this does not want to use the words ‘monetary inflation.’ Why not? Because, when people hear the words ‘monetary inflation,’ they think that this sounds bad. They think that it means that the government or the central bank is about to indulge itself by expanding the money supply. This is exactly what it does mean.”
~The Powder Keg ~ Gray North
‘The phrase “quantitative easing” is a euphemism for monetary inflation.’
Yes, but only if it works. Hasn’t Japan tried it something like three times already over the last two decades, to no avail? The Keynesians say they didn’t do it long or hard enough…
…or soon enough. It’s never enough with them. The theory is never faulted - only the execution.
Gee whiz, and in the Bible it says God is a jealous god!? Guess they couldn’t anticipate the slavish devotion to theory demanded by the adherents of Keynes.
“The phrase “quantitative easing” is a euphemism for monetary inflation.”
A co-worker says I’m foolish for paying-off my mortgage so soon because he feels that we all will be able to pay-down our debts with inflated dollars. Back in the seventies, I didn’t have any inflated dollars either. Nice try!
Wells Fargo paying $24 million to end 8-state investigation into ‘pick-a-payment’ loans
WASHINGTON (AP) — Wells Fargo is paying $24 million to end an investigation by eight states probing whether lenders acquired by the company made risky mortgages to consumers without disclosing their perils.
The states said loans known as option adjustable rate loans, or “pick-a-payment” mortgages, were deceptive to borrowers. Those particularly toxic loans allowed borrowers to defer some of their interest payments and add them to the principal balance. Borrowers could make payments so low that loan debt actually increased every month.
San Francisco-based Wells Fargo & Co. announced the agreement Wednesday with attorneys general in Arizona, Colorado, Florida, Illinois, Nevada, New Jersey, Texas and Washington state.
The loans were made by Wachovia Corp. and a California company it acquired, World Savings Bank. Wells purchased Wachovia at the end of 2008. Wachovia had already stopped making those loans before the acquisition was complete.
..“pick-a-payment” mortgages, were deceptive to borrowers…
—–
“You can have a pick-a-payment loan, if you prefer.”
“Really? What’s that?”
“Every month, you can pay a minimum, $400, or just the interest, which is $500, or the 30 year rate, which is $600, or the 15 year rate, which is $700… Pay which ever you prefer. It’s up to you.”
“We can choose how much we pay? Cool.. we’ll take it.”
———
“That guy promised us we’d get something for nothing! We were bamboozled!!!”
The CBO in August said it expects (SS) beneficiaries will not receive a COLA in 2011, and will receive only a 0.4% increase for 2012.
The final decision comes around mid-month. Should be interesting, there’s a lot of mileage in this issue - always has been.
Oops I did it again….. Once again I find myself on the road checking email at the coffee shop. And once again I’ve saddled up next to a crew discussing real estate.
Early 30s guy:
“My realtor says I should be buying like crazy right now. But I jumped in way to early.”
Your REALTOR? Who HAS a realtor? I can understand “having” an accountant. A dentist. But a realtor? On the other hand, I guess I “have” about 10 realtors…
But I digress from my main point. I can almost excuse the vernacular if someone says they “bought too early.” But when I hear “I jumped in too early” I immediately think the only reason this guy bought was for the perceived investment growth potential.
From where I sit, people still think they’re missing the boat right now by not “buying like crazy.” They’re still discussing RE as a topic way too much. This psychology tells me we’re far away from the place where I’m willing to consider a purchase. Sigh.
“…buying like crazy.”
And they did, circa 2006 and before…
These wannabe investors need to remember that filing serially for personal BK is no longer allowed.
Grant Says U.S. `On the Road’ to Socialization of Credit
Sept. 30 (Bloomberg) - James Grant, editor of Grant’s Interest Rate Observer, talks about the overhaul of U.S. financial regulation. Grant also discusses Federal Reserve monetary policy. He talks with Pimm Fox on Bloomberg Television’s “Taking Stock.” (Source: Bloomberg)
Yesterday’s article by cantankerous bear Paul Ferrell has inspired follow-on commentary by others.
If you thought Paul Farrell was a pessimist before, after reading this article from him you will look back on the others and view those as the musings of a cock-eyed optimist drinking Kudlow Kool-Aid.
In his most recent piece, he takes inspiration from Taleb’s trust (almost) no one idea and lays out a scenario for the Fed to fail no later than 2020 under the weight of layers of corruption and conflicts that leads to class warfare and riots over food and water. If it is not clear his is talking about the US.
First things first the Fed as we know it (or think we know it) is the third central bank the US has had so the Fed failing one way or another would not be unprecedented and the reasons Farrell cites are close to the reasons why the first two shut down (per my limited understanding).
The further prospects for the Fed to use fooling games to defeat rational expectations appear to be dwindling.
Farrell’s problem is people adapt quickly.
Fear of things like the little creature popping out of the guy’s chest in Alien, is substantially numbed the second time around, and gets a yawn around the 5th time..
So, to keep and hold an audience, his new idea must be more horrific than the last, but without crossing the fine line into the realm of the laughably-stupid.
Whatever you say, Joey. I guess next you will be trying to convince HBBers that they have outlawed stoopid?
Whenever I read Farrell, I detect more than a snicker of laughter between the lines. He targets the helpless doom and gloomers, drives them nuts, and sells a lot of anti-depressants.
Such a cruel man..
Half of day’s foreclosure auctions called off
By Kimberly Miller Palm Beach Post Staff Writer
Updated: 12:14 p.m. Wednesday, Oct. 6, 2010
WEST PALM BEACH — The lawyer for the bank foreclosing on her home leaned in to Regina Ross on Tuesday morning to whisper an unexpected message.
Representing JPMorgan Chase, the Florida Default Law Group attorney had just canceled 27 foreclosure sales in less than 15 minutes in front of Palm Beach County Judge Meenu Sasser.
He told Ross he also would call off the sale in Bank of America’s 3-year-old case against her.
By the end of the morning’s hearings, 50 percent of the day’s foreclosure auctions were aborted, canceled in many cases only an hour before they were to go to sale.
The typical rate for cancellations is about 30 percent.
Lawyers scrambled to pull foreclosed properties from auction after the recent admissions from three major lenders that flawed foreclosure affidavits may have been filed with the court.
That means homeowners on the brink of losing their properties are getting last-minute reprieves, regardless of whether the reason for the pardon is clear to them or whether they’re even aware of the status of their cases.
Sasser said she’s had to explain to a few homeowners why the sales were canceled. If it’s a JPMorgan Chase, Ally Financial or Bank of America case, it could be because affidavits were signed by bank employees who falsely swore they had verified documents showing the foreclosure was warranted. All three banks have suspended portions of their foreclosure proceedings to review and correct documents.
“I always take time to explain what’s happening,” said Sasser, who estimated she approved 40 sale cancellations Tuesday .
Palm Beach County Judge Edward Garrison worked on similar foreclosure hearings.
In total, 150 properties were scheduled for auction Tuesday. Seventy-five were canceled, with 33 being pulled Tuesday before the 10 a.m. start time of the online auction.
Ross asked for the Nov. 1 sale of her suburban Lake Worth home to be canceled because she said she has someone who will buy it as a short sale. The home was purchased for $399,500 in 2005, but the Palm Beach County Property Appraiser’s Office now lists its total market value at $183,809.
I suppose a cold war fought with printing presses is greatly preferred to a hot war fought with guns.
The Financial Times
IMF chief warns on exchange rate wars
By Alan Beattie in Washington
Published: October 5 2010 21:53 | Last updated: October 5 2010 21:53
Governments are risking a currency war if they try to use exchange rates to solve domestic problems, the head of the International Monetary Fund has warned.
The comments by Dominique Strauss-Kahn came before the yen fell as a result of the Bank of Japan shifting towards quantitative monetary easing, cutting its key interest rate and proposing a new fund to buy government bonds and other assets.
“There is clearly the idea beginning to circulate that currencies can be used as a policy weapon,” Mr Strauss-Kahn told the Financial Times on Monday.
“Translated into action, such an idea would represent a very serious risk to the global recovery . . . Any such approach would have a negative and very damaging longer-run impact.”
…
“There is clearly the idea beginning to circulate that currencies can be used as a policy weapon,”
idiots.
they all believe that a strong currency destroys exports. i can promise you it does nothing of the kind. exports would actually get stronger after a short adjustment period.
it’s just more keynesian BS. a strong currency is good for an economy and the country that owns it. and here we are.. in a race to destroy our currency..
it’s just more keynesian BS. a strong currency is good for an economy and the country that owns it.”
not if you have alot of debt aquire the debt with a strong curency and pay it back with straw.
except you probably can’t do that very often and when all your workers are working for straw they can’t buy much.
not if you have alot of debt
a strong currency doesn’t have a lot of debt..
we have a weak and weakening currency. it would be best for everyone in the country if it began to strengthen. it’s a long road back no matter where we begin.
and yes, we can’t buy much with a weak currency. and we can buy even less with a still weaker one.
It’s been less than a year …
From November 11, 2009:
“Geithner Affirms Strong Dollar Policy.”
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB125792362908743307.html
It`s only a matter of time before one of these lock changers breaks in to a foreclosure where somebody is home and gets shot.
Woman calls 911 when property preservation company breaks in
by Kim Miller
This item was posted on Matt Weidner’s blog this morning and relates to the story The Palm Beach Post ran a couple weeks ago concerning property preservation companies.
See news video here.
The woman is in foreclosure, but the home was occupied and she was home when this company came to change the locks.
It`s only a matter of time before one of these lock changers breaks in to a foreclosure where somebody is home and gets shot.
And my money’s on it happening in AZ, where packing heat is a sacred duty.
There’s a famous survey of incarcerated burglars where 80 percent or so say they won’t break into an occupied dwelling because they don’t want to get shot. Seems like common sense… but common sense doesn’t seem so common these days. You’d have to be a complete moron or just plain suicidal to do that kind of thing, regardless of how much you were being paid. Ben says $30 a pop? How reckless (or desperate) can these people be? There is no time to sort out motive in a self defense situation taking place inside your home. The perp (or hapless locksmith) damn well better hit the floor like Jeff Saturday says or they are going to have a very, very bad day.
Don’t these guys ring the bell first?
“Don’t these guys ring the bell first?”
Even then,… and what about renters who live in foreclosed upon homes? Nobody probably says a thing to them until it’s time to change the locks.
Often when I’m not expecting company and I get a knock at the door I don’t answer, supposedly it’s a good security precaution.
Often when I’m not expecting company and I get a knock at the door I don’t answer, supposedly it’s a good security precaution.
Good for you, clark. You’ll stay safe that way.
“Even then,… and what about renters who live in foreclosed upon homes? Nobody probably says a thing to them until it’s time to change the locks.”
According to this and other articles they are breaking in. I am a renter that lives in a house that is well into the foreclosure process and I am legally armed. Now if they hit the floor and wait for the police there wouldn`t be a problem. But if these guys are breaking into homes where people are living and home at the time I don`t think they are getting much in the way of training to deal with anything besides changing locks.
jeff saturday,
Before I forget, please stop trying to post entire articles.
As for this: ‘I am a renter that lives in a house that is well into the foreclosure process and I am legally armed.’
I’ve done some of this and I ask you; am I going to break into your house for $30, which is what a one door lock change pays? Which brings up an important point: these lenders/banks don’t want to pay even a living wage for most things, so all sorts of people get involved. They almost always use a mortgage field service go-between, some of whom don’t give a damn about anything. There are some bad eggs, and I’ll say from what I’ve read, Florida has more than most places. I’ve also met honest people who have done this for over 20 years, mostly realtors or people who work for them
There’s a lot to it; it gets into extensive rehab work, down and dirty stuff with trash, boring maintenance. What you are discussing is only one function of the business. The biggest mistake IMO is to get involved with the wrong people. (I think I heard that when I was growing up.)
But directly to the lock change thing; I can usually tell if a house is occupied without getting out of the vehicle. If there is some question, are the utilities on? A casual walk around will answer this. Ask a neighbor, etc. But most abandoned houses are so obviously vacant, it isn’t an issue. And if it isn’t clear, walk away and report what you found. What kinda fool would break into an occupied house for $30?
“I’ve done some of this and I ask you; am I going to break into your house for $30,”
2 years ago there was an intoxicated man in the last neighborhood I rented in who had a problem with something that had happened between his 13 year old daughter and mine, he followed me up to my garage at night asking “what are you going to do hit me” I repeatedly told him, in between trying to calm my wife down to just go home. I found out the next day he had a gun and was trying to get me to swing at him so he could use the Florida law that allows a person to use deadly force to protect themselves. After that incident and the police saying there was nothing they could do I researched and bought several firearms, took a concealed weapons class and go to the range at least once a month. In the last couple of years within a 10 mile radius of where I live in decent middle class neighborhoods there have been several people shot in there own homes by people who were not supposed to be there. So, like I said if someone broke into my home while I was there and hit the floor there wouldn`t be a problem. I wouldn`t expect a thinking or rational person would do it in the first place, but evidently it is happening.
P.S. Sorry about the entire articles.
And like you said, I am sure most are honest people, but they wouldn`t be the ones to worry about.
Home repo agents too ‘gung-ho,’ change locks before foreclosures are filed
September 22, 2010
By Kimberly Miller, The Palm Beach Post
In one suit, a man with a criminal record of drug and burglary charges who is working for a property preservation company is alleged to have taken a laptop computer, several bottles of wine and a cordless drill from a Punta Gorda home while there to change the locks.
He also helped himself to a cold beer from the refrigerator, leaving it, along with his fingerprints, on a counter top, the suit says.
http://articles.sun-sentinel.com/2010-09-22/business/fl-home-repo-20100920_1_property-preservation-personal-property-locks - 33k
Hey Ben
I was reading through the comments from this article and most were ugly. Made me think some, but here`s one I thought you would appreciate.
Trust me We dont enjoy our jobs either we have to deal with getting shot or Cleaning poop out of a toilet thats sat there for 2years with no running water and broken toilets from angry home owners. People do your researCh before you speak. Well have to get up early to go Change some locks tommorrow. Ill pray for you all.
Field Rep
12:11 AM, 9/22/2010
Part one, he`s just like me.
Wow The world has so many views. Well I am in this trade of work and thats right we dont want to “break in” and steal belongings. We are doing a job to pay our bills just like any other responsible person. We have a job to do we do everything by the book and no stealing is involved. You have to remember we are the middle men just doing our job. I do have a CWP (conceald weapon permit)also remember im not breaking in I am doing an instructed job. Trust me its no fun for us either.. to be cont..
Field Rep
12:06 AM, 9/22/2010
“What kinda fool would break into an occupied house for $30?”
Lots of thieves break in for much less.
Like you said, all sorts of people get involved, and There are some bad eggs.
Not that I expect it or anything, but while doing this type of job someone with less than ideal ethics, say a former mortgage broker or realtwhore for instance, or someone up to their eyeballs in debt, or as a side job they are thieves, they might do just that. Obviously, not for *just* the $30. Temptation meets opportunity.
But then again there are an awful lot of self-righteous people who might feel they are backed by force of law in what their doing and they’ve got their own quota to fill.
Those are the kinds that say, “What about the time I put into this already?” They want paid for their efforts, not losses.
“It`s only a matter of time before one of these lock changers breaks in to a foreclosure where somebody is home and gets shot.”
These lock changers are small businesses if not sole proprietors, and they are not as stupid as the MSM paints them. My money is on the lock changer; he likely knocked, and called out too. The dead beat is…well…a dead beat. Do over extended debtors lie? You bet, just like a carpet.
I repo’d cars for five years, and I’ve heard it all. Thumbs down!
Hey Exeter, Blue Skye, WTEconomist and all our other NY friends, did you get to read this:
From Economic Trends in New York State
Thomas P. DiNapoli
New York State Comptroller
“Housing
After the housing bubble burst, home values
declined in most counties in New York State.
Between 2007 and 2009, the median statewide
sales price for existing homes, as measured by the
New York State Association of Realtors, fell by
15.3 percent to $199,000. Home prices rebounded
by 12.1 percent during the first six months of
2010, and the number of sales rose by
26.5 percent. With the expiration of the federal tax
credit for home buyers, sales were lower by
34.9 percent in July 2010 compared to July 2009.
While the number of foreclosures in New York
increased sharply during the recession, rising by
30 percent between 2007 and 2009, the rate of
increase was much lower than it was nationally
(120 percent). Similarly, in the first half of 2010,
foreclosures rose by 1.2 percent in the State and
8.2 percent in the nation. During this period, there
was one foreclosure for every 326 households in
New York, compared to one for every 78
households in the nation. Nonetheless, New York
does have areas of high foreclosure rates,
particularly downstate.”
It’s really worth reading the whole thing. Good job info even if it is rearview mirror.
http://www.osc.state.ny.us/reports/economic/nys_economic_trends.pdf
NOTE PDF!
The Fed Warms Up The Printing Press
Categories: Finance
02:31 pm
October 6, 2010
by Jacob Goldstein
It sounds like the Federal Reserve is about to create a lot more money out of thin air.
The idea would be to help the economy by driving down interest rates for businesses and ordinary people, encouraging everyone to borrow and spend more money. To drive down interest rates, the Fed would probably by medium- or long-term bonds.
This is known as quantitative easing, or QE, and the Fed has already done it once in the past few years (see “How To Spend $1.25 Trillion“). People are calling the next round QE2.
In the past week, several top Fed officials have suggested QE2 could be coming soon.
…the Fed’s Open Market Committee, which makes these sorts of decisions, said last month that QE2 is on the table.
The Fed’s leaders clearly aren’t united on this front.
The president of the Philly Fed recently said that QE2 would not “have much impact on the near-term outlook for employment,” and could “hurt the Fed’s credibility.”
And the president of the Kansas City Fed has consistently argued that the crisis is over, and the Fed should back off from the policies it’s taken to revive the economy. He’s said that keeping the heroic measures in place could create another bubble.
…
“He’s said that keeping the heroic measures in place could create another bubble.”
“… heroic measures …” ???????
Heroic measures is DOING THE RIGHT THING despite the pain!
“The Fed Warms Up The Printing Press”
Nice of those yellow-peeps to help us.
LMFAO!!!!! Kudos to Planet Money for shining a bright light on the humorous side of the toxic mortgage asset problem…
We Bought A Toxic Asset; You Can Watch It Die
What better way to track the financial crisis than to own a piece of it. You can follow our dubious investment here.
Planet Money
Toxie’s Dead
September 24, 2010 Planet Money’s pet toxic asset died this week. She was killed by one of the worst housing busts in U.S. history. Watch the video.
Midnight grocery runs capture economic desperation
By Associated Press
Wednesday, October 6, 2010
FREDRICKSBURG, Va. — Once a month, just after midnight, the beeping checkout scanners at a Walmart just off Interstate 95 come alive in a chorus of financial desperation.
Here and at grocery stores across the country, the chimes come just after food stamps and other monthly government benefits drop into the accounts of shoppers who have been rationing things like milk, ground beef and toilet paper and can finally stock up again.
Shoppers mill around the store after 11 p.m., killing time until their accounts are replenished. When midnight strikes, they rush for the checkout counter.
“The kids are sleeping, so we go do what we’ve gotta do. Money is tight,” Martin Young said as he and his wife pushed two carts piled high with ground beef, toilet paper and other items.
The couple said they need food-stamp benefits, which are electronically deposited onto debit cards, because his job as a restaurant server doesn’t quite cover expenses for their five children.
“We try to get here between 10:30 and 11 because we know we’ve got a lot of stuff to get. That way by 12 o’clock we’re at the line cashing out and done,” he said.
More than a year after the technical end of the Great Recession, millions of Americans still have a hard time stretching their dollars until the first of the month, or even the next payday.
One in seven Americans lives in poverty, and more than 41 million are on food
http://www.bostonherald.com/news/national/general/view.bg?articleid=1287026&srvc=rss - -
Cash rules! If you have any doubt about this then you need to read this article.
Walmart rules.
however, it’s the only consumer staples stock I’ve bought that is worth less than what I paid for it, about 18 months ago.
management sux.. wastes lots of money.. throw the bums out.
“The couple said they need food-stamp benefits, which are electronically deposited onto debit cards, because his job as a restaurant server doesn’t quite cover expenses for their five children.”
A restaurant server shouldn’t have five children, period!
You might thank him when his 5 hard working kids are supporting you in your old age by way of Social Security and other taxes..
I doubt it; his five kids will each have five kids too.
“Walmart is collaborating with vendors to offer even smaller sizes for under a dollar to win back customers who are heading to dollar stores to buy mini-size laundry soap and other items because they only have a few dollars left until the next payment.”
Oh yeah, the cost per unit gig. It’s expensive to be poor.
Ohio Attorney General Sues GMAC
Seeks $25,000 Per False Affidavit
http://news.firedoglake.com/2010/10/06/ohio-attorney-general-sues-gmac-seeks-25000-per-false-affidavit/
“…approximately 450,000 foreclosures have been filed in Ohio since 2005, and potentially all of them used this robo-signing process. At the outer edge of this, if every one of those foreclosure processes is seen as a single case of fraud, the fines for the entire lending industry would add up to $11.25 BILLION dollars, just in the state of Ohio, not including the extra restitution for homeowners.”
GMAC, spawner of Ditech, whose motto was: “People are smart”.
GMAC, spawner of Ditech, whose motto was: “People are smart”.
probably one of the most infamous commercials ever. the only one i hated worse was the “smiling bob, extend yer..” commercial.
“people are smart” translation
“if i tell you you’re smart, will you turn off your brain completely?”
“People are smart”.
Caught a little 1000 ways to die last night and I was thinking the exact same thing. The guy who ate coins was nothing compared to these guys snorting fire ants.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BSLfC6ZKd30 - 107k -
seems more than a bit frivolous.. hang it up in court forever.. protect the FBs..
One of the earlier articles posted today about Wells Fargo pointed out that the people who signed the documents didn’t verify anything because the company’s attorneys and personnel in other departments had already done so.
I think this is a case for Judge Judy. She wouldn’t waste any time telling Ohio Att General to get a life.
American People Hire High-Powered Lobbyist To Push Interests In Congress
OCTOBER 6, 2010 | ISSUE 46•40
WASHINGTON—Citing a desire to gain influence in Washington, the American people confirmed Friday that they have hired high-powered D.C. lobbyist Jack Weldon of the firm Patton Boggs to help advance their agenda in Congress.
Known among Beltway insiders for his ability to sway public policy on behalf of massive corporations such as Johnson & Johnson, Monsanto, and AT&T, Weldon, 53, is expected to use his vast network of political connections to give his new client a voice in the legislative process.
Weldon is reportedly charging the American people $795 an hour.
http://www.theonion.com/articles/american-people-hire-highpowered-lobbyist-to-push,18204/
* POLITICS
* OCTOBER 7, 2010
Deportations Hit Record Number
By MIRIAM JORDAN
Homeland Security Secretary Janet Napolitano said the U.S. deported a record 392,862 illegal immigrants and arrested more of their employers this past year than ever before.
Nearly half, 190,000, of those removed by the Immigration and Customs Enforcement agency in the fiscal year ended Sept. 30 had criminal records. That figure is 70% higher than the number of people with records deported in the fiscal year ended Sept. 30, 2008, Ms. Napolitano told a news conference Wednesday.
She said the administration of President Barack Obama has purposely targeted illegal immigrants who have been convicted of offenses in the U.S. Those crimes range from murder and sexual assault to misdemeanors, such as minor drug offenses and disorderly conduct.
The White House has also stepped up punishment of those who employ illegal workers. In fiscal 2010, the department scrutinized the employment records of more than 2,200 companies, up from 1,400 the previous year, Ms. Napolitano said.
In the past year, the department criminally charged a record 180 owners, employers and managers, compared with 114 in 2009. Since January 2009, it has imposed about $50 million in fines on businesses that employed illegal immigrants.
Last month, for instance, clothing retailer Abercrombie & Fitch agreed to pay $1.04 million to settle charges that the company had deficiencies in its employee-verification system.
“ICE has increased the audit and prosecution of employers who repeatedly and egregiously hire illegal workers,” Ms. Napolitano said.
…
I haven’t kept track of unemployment figures at all.
This is 400,000 job openings. Is that a lot?
half of these are criminals, which is why they were targeted, and the rest were probably in the vicinity. In the wrong place at the wrong time.
But suppose they went after all of the illegals. Is that somewhere near 5 or 10 million job openings?
Big O.. Can you do it? Do you have the stones?