Sales Take ‘Across The Board Shellacking’ In Las Vegas
A housing bubble update on Las Vegas. “Valley home sales took an across-the-board shellacking in April. There were only 2,230 new homes sold last month, an 11.5 percent drop from March and 28.7 percent lower than a year ago, reports the Greater Las Vegas Association of Realtors.”
“Median home sale prices also softened to $310,000 in April, which is 1.7 percent less than the prior month, but still 5.1 percent higher than a year ago.”
“Condo/townhomes saw similar dismal results in April with only 522 sales, which is 19.2 fewer than in March and 29.2 percent less than in 2005. And median condo/townhome sale prices dipped to $202,000, a 1.5 percent drop from March, but still 11 percent higher than a year ago.”
“The inventory of homes for sale in Las Vegas reached an all-time high of 18,467 in April, a 29.3 percent increase from a year ago and nearly double the number from two years ago. Available condominiums and townhomes have increased nearly 50 percent to 3,971, largely a result of the trend in apartment conversions.”
“‘I don’t get worried about monthly bites of information,’ association President Linda Rheinberger said. ‘Knowing that we have record new-home inventory, everything will even out over time. We’re still expecting 5 percent to 10 percent appreciation overall this year.’”
“Housing analyst Rick Murray said inventory levels, generally speaking on a local market basis, began to rise fairly sharply and noticeably in the past six months. ‘Current market conditions relative to supply and demand would suggest that the housing market will go through a more difficult period,’ he said. ‘Certainly, fewer people are buying than a year ago.’”
“Rheinberger said Realtors are selling 80 percent of the inventory within 90 days, an indication that people are still buying.”
“Statistics from the Realtors’ association are based on records from the Multiple Listing Service and do not account for newly constructed homes sold by builders and other transactions not involving a Realtor.”
Thanks to the reader who sent these links in.
id love to give lv landlord a schellakin
Ooops. I know LV Landlord is in da house! What say you to this one? I know, I know, it’s just a healthy “breather”. LOL
LV LANDLORD thinks the laws of supply and demand don’t operate in Las Vegas .
No LV_landlord’s problem is simply cognitive dissonance.
Yeah, LV Landlord was telling us just the other day that prices wouldn’t drop in LV because they’re fresh out of land. Looks like they’re fresh out of Greater Fools, too.
Come out come out wherever you are…….
Out of land? Has anyone been to Vegas? Drive 20 minutes outside of town—north, east, south, west—nothing but wide open spaces. Then drive another hour, still nothing. Then another hour, nada.
The Vegas RE bullz keep jabbering about how all this land is BLS or some such. Well, it’s empty. And if there’s a need for it, it will become available.
Land scarcity is a complete canard when discussing RE in Vegas. Now if you start talking about water scarcity, you might have something.
LV Landlord - 28% drop in sales and an all time high in inventory. Get out of the line for the punch bowl, Mr BB has taken it away. The only kool-aid left is from Jim Jones!
Lots of builder discounts in the Washington Post RE section today:
K Hovnanian: “Purchase Your New Home By THIS WEEKEND to Enjoy $10,000 in Incentives”
Another K Hovnanian ad: “Immediate Occupancy. Savings Up To $48,000!”
Ryan Homes: “Recieve 1/2 Off Options Up To $50,000 for a Limited Time Only!” (this ad appears twice, including a huge 2-page ad).
Lennar Homes: “Thousand of Dollars in Luxury Extras at No Extra Cost!”
Craftmark Homes: “No Points! No Closing Costs! Below Market Financing Available!”
NV Homes: “Spring Savings of Up To $45,000!”
Ryland Homes: “4.99% Interest, 100% Financing, All Closing Costs Paid, Plus Additional Savings!”
Fairfax Ridge: “Bring This Ad in to Save up to $7,500 in Closing Costs!”
K. Hovnanian: “Save 10% Plus No Closing Costs!”
Richmond Homes: “Purchase by May 31st and Receive up to $30,000 Toward Your Dream Home!”
K Hovnanian: “Purchase Your New Home By THIS WEEKEND to Enjoy $10,000 in Incentives”
OR: Purchase Your New Home By 2008 to Enjoy $200,000 in Incentives”
LOL …….you got it .
2,230 new homes sold last month and
“‘I don’t get worried about monthly bites of information,’ association President Linda Rheinberger said. ‘Knowing that we have record new-home inventory, everything will even out over time. We’re still expecting 5 percent to 10 percent appreciation overall this year.’”
2231 fools in LV
‘Knowing that we have record new-home inventory, everything will even out over time. We’re still expecting 5 percent to 10 percent appreciation overall this year.’”
—————————————————————–
Evening out over time is not gonna be 5-10% appreciation. More likely a return to 2001 price levels or lower.
Lereah says the speculative germs are gone in Florida.
http://tinyurl.com/gy95b
http://tinyurl.com/gy95b
That why Florida doesn’t have a market anymore .
yeah, yeah, blame it on the weather…….
Is David DiaLereah still looking for ‘investment property’ in Vegas?
LOL.
Plenty around. Bad investment, that is.
Huge new wave of Inventory getting ready to hit the market in the next week or two.
Real homeowners selling real homes.
The BUBBLE’S A BURSTIN’.
“Rheinberger said Realtors are selling 80 percent of the inventory within 90 days, an indication that people are still buying.”
Huh? That would mean 4,924 sales per month based on inventory at 18,467…for the first 3 months of this year only 6,086 sold acording to this realtor website ( http://www.lasvegasrealtor.com/stats/statindex.htm )which has been 36% of what has been listed this year alone (not computed with previous inventory caryover)
just more funny numbers or math challenged realtors LOL
“‘I don’t get worried about monthly bites of information,’ association President Linda Rheinberger said. ‘Knowing that we have record new-home inventory, everything will even out over time. We’re still expecting 5 percent to 10 percent appreciation overall this year.’”
I keep coming across comments like this, by unRealtors, that seem to spin high inventories as a good thing for market stability.
And I can’t even figure out what this unRealtor is trying to say with this statement:
http://realtytimes.com/rtmktc/report.htm?open&link=http://mktc.realtytimes.com/mktc/conditionsviewjs/California~San_Diego~rimahakooz?open&pID=rt1
[scratching head]
From the link above, what a hoot:
”
Increase in inventory throughout March 2006 San Diego market will be fueled by the continuing shortage of housing, intrest rate is rising as well Median home price which increased compare with Dec 2005, current market Trend is continue to change , median home price is $776000.00, market time 55-60 days. shortage of land has been shown in today’s market hiring Rima is Not important its critical”
Hiring Norma is critical to have her decode her forecast….worse than greenspeak.
Huhhhhhhhhhhhhh………..
she appears uneducated - if writing style is any indication.
and it is
Strangely enough, she claims a BA in Education. OMIGOD!
Like he said poorly educated.
Did anyone else see 20/20 last night on Real Estate ‘Boom or Bust’ ? They had the guy on there that created the Condo Flip website and he said he added a PANIC button for investors who need out now, it hooks them up with vultures waiting to buy units at discoounted prices!
LMAO!!!!!!
Yeah! I saw it last night. Crazy. There was a snippet about that Zilbert guy in the topic ” Buyers Reluctant To Overpay in Miami”. ABC News also ran an article on their interview with Zilbert and others. The ones who seemed the most worried, though, was the guy (Celnicker) and his investment partners who now have to see how long they can last by renting out the units that they own and can’t sell.
Oh, well….I say to them, what did they think was going to happen in the long run? I remember…real estate never goes down. Yeah, uh huh. Pick another card. NOW what are they saying?
BayQT~
I smell fear — is that you, LV Landlord?
Sammy, LVLandlord is just collecting her thoughts. She’ll be back in full battle gear with an interesting spin, I’m sure.
BayQT~
Some people think LV Landlord is a male . I think LV is a felmale .
I think she is the LVGal from the WSJ blog on real estate. She (if its her) was one of the first and biggest cheerleaders over there.
Yes, I’m quite sure LV Landlord is Vegas Gal from the WSJ board. People asked her about it, and she never refuted it. Also, her stories match.
If she’s so bullish, why has she been a regular on bubble blogs since at least early/mid-2004? I think she’s really a bear…shhhh!
GOOOOOD NEWS!!! for lvlandlord…the santa rosa press democrat today carried an AP article that called lost wages “one of america’s HOTTEST real estate markets!!!” so lv,pour another martini,get in that hot tub,and relax. by the way the pd has almost equally as good coverage of our local real estate market….almost.
“‘I don’t get worried about monthly bites of information,’ association President Linda Rheinberger said. ‘Knowing that we have record new-home inventory, everything will even out over time. We’re still expecting 5 percent to 10 percent appreciation overall this year.’”
I suck at Math, I think I’ll go into Real Estate and offer people advice on the most important financial decision they will ever make.
I like that. LOL
That association president quoted in the article is pathological liar! 2,200 homes sold in the 1st quarter, the inventory is 18,000 and rising, yet she says 80% of the inventory is being moved within 90 days?? One thing is for sure….a lot of people in the real estate industry need to be bitchslapped.
You guys should get a life.
Just kidding. I was at a tea party this afternoon. Little cucumber sandwiches. And cake. Yummy!
Yes, I am Vegas Gal from the WSJ board, and I was advising people to buy in Las Vegas more than 2 years ago. Anybody who listened to me then would have profitted nicely by now. Now I am telling people to buy only if you are renting, and then look for distressed properties, or properties selling under market. Now is not the time to buy investment properties. I am sure I mentioned this before. But who listens to me anyway?
I believe I also mentioned about the inventory build up. Builders are snatching up every last bit of land and building on it as fast as they can. But this can’t go on. The big chunks of land are disappearing and all that’s left is infill. Say goodbye to economy of scale. Meanwhile interest rates and building materials are going up. Say goodbye to affordable housing.
We’re going to be looking at a completely different market in a year or two. The days of crazy building will be behind us. And then what will happen? It’s all going to change. Las Vegas is the story to watch.
I gotta keep asking… change how?
tj… I keep saying. It’s the land. For 50 years we had an inexhaustable supply. Now, the supply is nearly exhausted. Nobody seems to believe me, but I’m here. I’m looking at it. The land is nearly gone. Just a few desirable big patches left, then nothing but infill. The building boom of recent years will turn into something else. Urban renewal, gentrification, tear-downs, vertical growth, custom homes on small urban lots. But no more of the big master-planned communities. Not in Las Vegas proper, anyway. Maybe across the river in Arizona, or out in the desert half-way to California, but the prime land close in to the city is nearly gone.
All I see is Desert around Las Vegas. How is it almost gone?
BZZZZZ — Wrong Answer!
As stated previously, it doesn’t matter if sales stop or the land runs out, because either way most construction stops. No construction, no jobs; no jobs, no economy (outside casinos, of course).
Let’s try again… “How has Las Vegas changed so that it can survive without construction?”
This thread is getting old. They never seem to last more than 24 hours on this blog, so we should find a way to continue this discussion farther up.
But the short answer is, there are lots of jobs in Las Vegas that are unrelated to construction or gambling.
There she is… Hi, Vegas Gal!
Seriously, if we ever get a “housing bubble” party together, I’m buying you drinks, just for being a sport.
Also, I liked how you went to check out the Pulte homes in Oct 2004 and reported back honestly about what you saw. I remember that!
I seem to be having problems posting.
Never mind, it’s working now.
How fast have gambling receipts grown in LV over the past few years?
I have a theory that alot of that is CA Heloc money on vacation. When that dries up, LV will have negative growth and job losses will follow. Vegas has always been boom-bust and this time won’t be any different.
Actually, Vegas has pretty much always been boom. I’ve lived here 25 years, I’ve yet to see a bust.
You have yet to see a great depression too. if it happens, LV will feel it harder than anyone.
Never say never….
Vegas took a serious downturn in 2001 after Sept. 11. Huge layoffs in all the casinos. AGs funny money got the place going again. You’ll know the funny money is drying up when the casinos profits start to fall.
Las Vegas is town built on gambling and risk taking, how many people are doing that now. A declining dollar, higher interest rates, increasing inflation and a flattening job market (harbinger to a recession). Everybody is edgy, must be those wonderful housing investments they made. Las Vegas will be one of the fastest declining cities when this housing bubble/ recession takes full effect. Las Vegas has nothing to offer society on economic sustainability stand point, so enjoy your water defficient overheated plot of useless land…the storm is coming.
Visitor growth in Vegas is slowing quite a bit. Only up about 2% YOY and the same was true from 2003 to 2004. The convention biz is still strong. The decimation of New Orleans helped a bit.
Even though the number of visitors is not growing much, the amount they are gambling (re: losing) is growing dramatically, up about 14% over the past 18 months.
So the base of business is flat, but Vegas is skimming more and more from the same folks. I guess because people have more money to spend at this moment in time (thanks, DiTech!).
When the current liquidity boom runs its’ course, Vegas will no doubt get bit on the butt. When folks have less money to blow on gambling, you’ll need more visitors to make up the difference. But visitor growth is slowing. And when you combine fewer visitors spending less money, that spells recession….
Won’t be the end of the world, but no doubt it will come as a bit of a shock to folks like LV Landlord.