Bits Bucket For November 30, 2010
Post off-topic ideas, links, and Craigslist finds here.
The Housing Bubble
Examining the home price boom and its effect on owners, lenders, regulators, realtors and the economy as a whole.
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Name:Ben Jones
Location:Northern Arizona, United States
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Realtors are Liars.
Aw, come on, ex. Tell us something we don’t know.
I know I know…… but in the event you forget……
Realtors Are Liars.
Not quite all—I met one honest one a few years back, who told me it was not a good time to buy.
The experience made me feel like I was Diogenes, and I had finally succeeded…
Ex they are not liars they are conditional motivators,
They heal and remove all your old conditions and replace them with new ones to motivate you into buying your dream home…..see its so easy
If realtors are liars, then what are government officials, modern economists, bank CEOs, the Federal reserve chief, Etc?
As guppies to sharks.
Real estate always goes up.
ALMOST always, that is…
Instant view: Sept home prices fall faster than expected
NEW YORK | Tue Nov 30, 2010 9:22am EST
NEW YORK (Reuters) - Prices of single-family homes in September fell more than twice as fast as expected from the prior month, while prices compared to a year earlier rose more slowly than forecast, according a widely watched index of U.S. home prices released on Tuesday.
…
From above article:
GARY SHILLING, PRESIDENT, A. GARY SHILLING & CO., AN INVESTMENT RESEARCH FIRM, SPRINGFIELD, NEW JERSEY:
“This isn’t surprising, at least not to us. Housing is in big trouble. Excess inventories remain a big problem, so weakness in prices isn’t surprising. We think there will be another 20 percent decline from there, though that decline has been held up by the moratorium on foreclosures. But those things seem to be clearing away, so I think we’ll be seeing more houses on the market soon. And as prices go down, more people get underwater, leading people to walk away. So prices are going to be the leader in the whole complex of sales. If we go down another 20 percent, the number of people underwater will leap from 23 percent to 40 percent, and that will probably lead to another round of write-offs for lenders. That will be Act II in the whole drama of the housing collapse.”
But not all liars are realtors.
Bankers are there for your “best interest” They always tell the Truth!
Judges suck too.
A few years back I mentioned the Real Estate Professional who snuck closing papers into a LOCKED PSYCHIATRIC WARD for my demented ex to sign– and he did. And promptly defaulted on the mortgage, after dropping 50K+ in closing costs.
Well, last night I intercepted communications (okay, he sat on his cell phone and it auto-dialed me– and of course I listened in. For three hours until the battery ran out.)
This “professional,” is selling him –in addition to whatever it is she’s REALLY selling– a defunct strip mall in Upland, CA. (Mexican gang central,) which they are planning to remodel into a…wait for it…video game parlor. (”Knock out a few walls, put in a few disabled toilet stalls….”
Of course, this person (who is currently living in a motel, claims “the government” lost her SSI check this month, and has a terrible hacking cough,) has an “ex” boyfriend who is a general contractor who can do all the work for cheap. Of course her best friends, Crystal and boyfriend Dominic, can run it for him. Of course, she won’t use the credit card he gave her to go to Vegas for the video machines…just yet.
And the capper? She conned him for $500 so she could pay her “real-i-turs” board dues and get them current so she can “feel more dignified.”
Sigh. NOW do y’all understand why I live alone on a mountain in the middle of East Nowhere?
I’d feel a little nervous about the fact that such an ex had my phone number. But the flipside is that you can listen in to some pretty fun conversations. And share them with us.
As I tell our actor/writer son…it’s all useable material.
Albeit heartbreaking.
lol
“Realtors are liars.”
At least they are not alone. Mortgage servicers appear to be trying their best to keep them company.
Senate panel’s focus: Foreclosures resulting from mortgage servicers’ advice
By Ariana Eunjung Cha and Zachary A. Goldfarb
Washington Post Staff Writers
Tuesday, November 30, 2010; 8:39 PM
Mortgage industry executives have argued for weeks that they are foreclosing only on borrowers who deserve it for missing their monthly payments.
But consumer groups and attorneys contend that many homeowners are being pushed into foreclosure because of errors or bad advice by the companies managing their loans - an issue that will be a core focus of a Senate banking committee hearing Wednesday.
Many borrowers, foreseeing financial difficulty ahead, were told by their mortgage servicers to miss payments in order to get a loan modification. But after doing so, homeowners were served foreclosure papers instead of getting a modification, the advocates say.
…
In 2005 there was less than a 4-month supply of homes, which now stands at a 23-month supply that is “growing” and that is a big lump under the carpet.
‘Shadow inventory’ of 2.1 million homes may loom in U.S. market
November 23, 2010
By Alejandro Lazo, Los Angeles Times
A supply of 2.1 million homes poised for foreclosure or delinquency potentially looms over the nation’s housing market, according to data released Monday.
The total number of U.S. properties listed for sale at the end of August plus the unlisted shadow inventory was 6.3 million, representing a 23-month supply of homes, according to CoreLogic, more than three times the amount considered healthy by economists. A year earlier, the total was 6.1 million, or a 17-month supply.
“The weak demand for housing is significantly increasing the risk of further price declines in the housing market,” CoreLogic chief economist Mark Fleming said. “This is being exacerbated by a significant and growing shadow inventory that is likely to persist for some time.”
http://articles.latimes.com/2010/nov/23/business/la-fi-shadow-inventory-20101123 - 36k -
‘In 2005 there was less than a 4-month supply of homes, which now stands at a 23-month supply that is “growing” and that is a big lump under the carpet.’
What’s worse is that the U.S. housing market has largely run out of greater fools with buckets of money and boxes of stupid. Who is going to be left to clean up all the elephant dung piled up under the living room rug?
Of course ever higher prices demanded everhigher levels of stupid.
Boxes of stupid are still being handed out, buckets of money, maybe not so much.
One of my customers told me he investigated a refi on his second with Wells & Forgone. The interest rate was nice, but the fees added up to 10% of the loan amount.
10% of the loan? Good gravy!
I would hope so. Nobody should have a second mortgage, for cripe’s sake. First mortgages are bad enough!
Hey PB, are you watching the precious metals today?
Silver is a damn rocket…
Who is going to be left to clean up all the elephant dung piled up under the living room rug?
Won’t we just end up with cheaper housing?
No, the rug will be expanded.
Danger of a Double Dip Recession by Zuckerman, US News & World
I wish this article wasn’t correct, but IMO he’s done a fine job describing the pickle that we’re in.
It’s time to start reading up on that urban garden. Rats
What? money printing won’t trump reality? Just when everything is “contained”?
Victory Garden?
PB,
We will in the long run be the winners, since most of us can see what’s happening and are preparing the best we can.
Lip
We hear the sound of hooves over the horizon, but I suspect we could still be surprised to see what appears. I’m pretty sure it doesn’t shoot rainbows out its arse though.
I thought it was candy that shot out of unicorns’ arses?
Porgie is going to graduate from high school today, and his mother is cooking up some groatcakes for breakfast. His father, who has recently changed his name to Adolph, is busily wolfing down his breakfast so he can get back to defoliating his Victory Garden. “Don’t eat with your hands, son, use your entrenching tool!”
“Don’t eat with your hands, son, use your entrenching tool!”
Hand me the pliers.
I can’t believe that so many commentators have essentially stopped talking about upcoming cuts in state and local spending. You can think that the cuts are long overdue or the worst idea in the world, but there is no doubt that they are going to reduce the velocity of money.
The Denver Post still talks about it, since every year the state gov’t has to cut its budget. They are estimating that it will be cut another billion next fiscal year. Not surprising as the median HH income in the Centennial state dropped 10% since 2000. There are more consumers of gov’t services and fewer people paying for them every year. It won’t be long until the State U’s get no funds at all from Denver. (Meanwhile there are a few legislators who are still hell bent on giving illegals in state tuition rates.)
It won’t be long until the State U’s get no funds at all from Denver. (Meanwhile there are a few legislators who are still hell bent on giving illegals in state tuition rates.)
The same declining state funding trend’s been going on here in AZ. And, from my lofty perch here in Tucson, I think that the worsening behavior of college students has a lot to do with it. Not to mention the arrogance of some faculty and administration.
Can illegals get student loans? How are they paying tuition?
You can’t get government guaranteed student loans if you are not here legally (absent identity theft). A “student loan” without a government guarantee is just a large unsecured loan. Presumably they are paying out of personal or parental savings and personal or parental income plus any scholarships provided by the school. Formerly, their might have been Helocs involved, but that is not as easy as it used to be.
their = there
Sigh.
State schools raise tuition to what the market will bear. Unfortunately, the market can bear quite an increase because the usual private-school kids are attending state schools in droves. For the daughter of a crane operator, an increase from $14K to $18K at State might be killer. But for the daughter of an engineer who saw at an increase from $38K to $45K at Legacy U, it’s a no-brainer. The biggest loser in this equation is the crane operator.
In the centennial state public U’s are restricted by the state as to how much they can charge. FWIW our state colleges and U’s charge between 4-8K per year.
Also, I’m guessing that the crane operator is paid much better than your average engineer.
How can an illegal get a loan with out a soc sec #? They also have to do very well on the SAT and have high grades. I say, let them compete on a level playing field. And if they live in the state they pay instate OR deport them.
It is mesmerizing watching our statehouse put off making those cuts. The elections were a month ago and these guys managed to skip through the entire month of November without tackling the issue. December will be a cakewalk, it always is - so the cuts will come in the dead of winter.
I’ve no idea what they think they have to gain by waiting. IMHO they are mortified by the seriousness of the situation and like a kid that just broke mom’s prized vase, they’re hiding in the attic.
Well, Illinois is kind of special when it comes to politics, isn’t it? The debates should be a fun distraction from the winter weather.
“I’ve no idea what they think they have to gain by waiting.”
Waiting for the fed. gvt. to bail them out.
Probably, the cargo cult - it isn’t just for South Pacific Islanders and Wall St. bankers anymore.
IMHO they are mortified by the seriousness of the situation and like a kid that just broke mom’s prized vase, they’re hiding in the attic.
The problem is they’ve been hiding in the attic for years. In some sense, the cuts they can make are superficial anyway — our unfunded pension liabilities are crushing, even when using the state’s wildly optimistic 7-10% return expectations.
The first payment on this year’s $3.5 billion pension bond is due next year, and that payment is supposed to be $800 million. Where the hell will that money come from? With our bond rating, there are a very finite number of rabbits that can be pulled outta the Magic Budgetary Hat.
Yeah, real pension reform won’t come from Springfield, it is going to have to be dictated. Those guys are in over their heads.
Edge ET only if they have to pay the full amount of pensions will checks start to bounce….the only way out is to pay say 85% and an IOU for the other 15%
No, the way is to cut current pensions drastically, cancel the future pensions, and say “sorry, if you don’t like it, go get a different job.”
That fixes the pension problem.
No, the way is to cut current pensions drastically, cancel the future pensions, and say “sorry, if you don’t like it, go get a different job.”
Politically untenable (read: unthinkable), particularly for the nut-less cretins that populate our state house.
They’re afraid to even nibble around the edges of your idea; never mind substantive action.
WTF?? Why is it always that current benefits wont be cut, but we’ll screw the future employees? Same thing w/ SS, they don’t want to cut current benefits, but have no problem taking away mine. Why should I continue to pay in???
Boxcars are back, sitting on the rail siding in town. Only about a third as many as a year ago, but there had been none for the past six months or so.
One of my kids returned to his job as conductor after returning from war. He is having a very tough time getting enough runs to put food on the table.
So I presume that signing up for another hitch is becoming tempting? What kind of signing bonus are they giving these days?
So a conductor is paid by the run like a trucker ??
Dave:
Everyone is on commission these days…its next to impossible to nail an employer down on a steady weekly check.
They used to be paid by the mile. I think it’s been changed somewhat.
Rail traffic peaks in August-October, due to retailers shipping stuff to the warehouses for the Christmas shopping season.
Where is this growth they keep talking about? And if 1 million more people lose their jobs they will get unemployment benefits and keep the economy humming right along.
Cut-off of jobless aid would lower economic growth
By PAUL WISEMAN The Associated Press
Posted: 7:05 a.m. Tuesday, Nov. 30, 2010
WASHINGTON — If Congress lets unemployment benefits expire this week, the jobless won’t be the only ones to feel the pain. The overall economy would suffer, too.
Unemployment benefits help drive the economy because the jobless tend to spend every dollar they get, pumping cash into businesses. A cut-off of aid for millions of people jobless for more than six months could squeeze a fragile economy, analysts say. Among the consequences they envision over the next year:
— Annual economic growth could fall by one half to nearly 1 percentage point.
— Up to 1 million more people could lose their jobs.
— Hundreds of thousands would fall into poverty.
Olly olly oxen free!
Funny, we used to say it as “olly olly in come free”, meaning everyone was free to come in from where they were hiding without getting tagged.
Of course, nowadays “income free” has a whole different ring to it…
“olly olly in come free”
Only recently I realized the original version of this was probably, “All ye, All ye, All come free”
The Republicans want an the cost of an Unemployment extension to be offset by cuts elsewhere, but there is no mention of the word offset when it comes to wanting continue to give millionaires and billionaires their record low tax rates.
The rich can write campaign donation checks.
Besides, it is not really their money, it belongs to all of us.
Besides, it is not really their money, it belongs to all of us.
Well, given that the current economic crisis was largely brokered by the rich and their bankers, financial consultants and managers, I don’t really have a problem with asking them to contribute some of that largesse back in order to help the country survive.
We need more food stamps too! If we extend those unemployment benefits and get another 10 or 20 million people on food stamps the economy will be roaring!
For every dollar a person receives in food stamps, Pelosi said that $1.79 is put back into the economy. The U.S. Department of Agriculture cites an even higher figure of $1.84.
“It is the biggest bang for the buck when you do food stamps and unemployment insurance. The biggest bang for the buck,” she said.
Remember that farmers and ranchers are very important in Iowa. Cutting food stamps is going to make the corn mafia in Iowa very angry.
I saw a study which positied that the main, political reason for food stamps was the fact that it gave congressmen from urban districts a reason to vote for the Department of Agriculture’s appropriation.
Well, if the agriculture programs are propping up prices, it makes sense to provide some relief to the people who suffer most because of the more expensive food. At this point, the subsitdies are so market distorting that it probably isn’t that straight forward, but at one point those programs just made food more expensive.
Of course agricultural price supports (subsidies) started as a reaction to the the sort of market-failure boom-bust cycle that we’ve just experienced in housing.
Which programs, polly? I would say that ag subsidies made all the wrong foods cheaper and all the right foods more expensive. Leftover from the post-war days when Americans were lacking in straight-up calories. Food stamps may not have that much of an effect.
A couple years ago, I conducted an experiment. I looked up how much $$ a month in food stamps that a single person would have received (about $110), and tried to eat well on that amount. Conclusion: it’s very easy to stack up pure calories on food stamps, but very difficult to do if you tried to achieve x grams of protein and x servings of veggies each day.
Gee….a correlation between what poor people can afford to eat, and weight/obesity issues.
Naaah. That would mean that the problems with obesity are complicated, instead of just blaming it on a lack of self-control by all those freeloaders on the government teat.
Here in the US we are increasing UE benefits on one hand and Wall Street is hiring people on H-1Bs from India and at 20% higher salaries. Maybe these hiring managers are themselves from those schools in India and are trying to get their folks from Alma-Mater.
Management students have good reason to smile. The summer placements week this year at the Indian Institutes of Management has seen offers raining down on them, with the financial sector leading the way. Marketing, consulting and general management companies have not been behind in their internship-recruitment either. But the bigger surprise comes in the form of offers for internships in foreign locations — from New York, London, Hong Kong, Dubai and even South Africa. In sheer number, international offers are 20% higher than last year.
So who are these recruiters? Students have been picked up by international giants like PepsiCo, UBS, Morgan Stanley, Nomura, and P&G, and Indian players like Jindal Power and Steel, and Mahindra and Mahindra, to name a few.
One of my neices has been a drug rep for one of the Big Pharmas for many years. The company like most is dramaticly downsizing due to many of the formularies going generic.
This company has a novel way of going about the layoff process. At the appointed time today, all the reps will get an email. Themail has one of two websites to go to; the “keeper website” and the “you’re outta here” website. Thats how you find out.
Cold, really cold.
http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSTRE6AS68S20101130
“WikiLeaks plans to release a U.S. bank’s documents”
This is going to be good. Real good. Seeing Jamie Dimon or Ken Lewis hanging from a lightpole would be a delightful sight.
I can’t help but think that some disgruntled bank employees are helping to make this big leak possible. And to them I say, “Right on!”
This is how ALL the leaks are happening. There some seriously PO’d people out there besides us, who have been waiting for an opportunity to expose the lies and corruption.
Over on the HuffyPo, they’re saying that the leak-ee is the Bank of America. Couldn’t happen to a nicer bank.
Bank of India? Sweet.
(why Bank of India? Because BoA was one of the largest offshorers of IT and customer service to… India. About the only thing American about them is the branches and HQ))
Bank of America was founded as Bank of Italy … mofia??
Can anyone get to their site this morning? Did the US take it down?
Big red screen overwhelms this article after I click on it. Curiouser and curiouser…
I thought only China censored the internet ?
I thought only China censored the internet ?
You haven’t heard about COICA?
Here you go:
(Reuters) - The founder of whistle-blower website WikiLeaks plans to release tens of thousands of internal documents from a major U.S. bank early next year, Forbes Magazine reported on Monday.
Julian Assange declined in an interview with Forbes to identify the bank, but he said that he expected that the disclosures, which follow his group’s release of U.S. military and diplomatic documents, would lead to investigations.
“We have one related to a bank coming up, that’s a megaleak. It’s not as big a scale as the Iraq material, but it’s either tens or hundreds of thousands of documents depending on how you define it,” Assange said in the interview posted on the Forbes website.
He declined to identify the bank, describing it only as a major U.S. bank that is still in existence.
Asked what he wanted to be the result of the disclosure, he replied: “I’m not sure. It will give a true and representative insight into how banks behave at the executive level in a way that will stimulate investigations and reforms, I presume.”
He compared this release to emails that were unveiled as a result of the collapse of disgraced energy company Enron Corp.
“This will be like that. Yes, there will be some flagrant violations, unethical practices that will be revealed, but it will also be all the supporting decision-making structures and the internal executive ethos … and that’s tremendously valuable,” Assange said.
“You could call it the ecosystem of corruption. But it’s also all the regular decision making that turns a blind eye to and supports unethical practices: the oversight that’s not done, the priorities of executives, how they think they’re fulfilling their own self-interest,” he said.
Assange also told the magazine that his group has material on many businesses and governments, including in Russia, and that it has some documents on pharmaceutical companies, which he did not identify.
More than 250,000 cables were obtained by the whistle-blower website and given to the New York Times and other media groups, which published stories on Sunday exposing the inner workings of U.S. diplomacy, including candid and embarrassing assessments of world leaders.
Before Sunday, WikiLeaks had made public nearly 500,000 classified U.S. files on the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan.
I’d like to see Wikileaks get some “candid and embarrassing” assessments from the Chinese, Russsians, etc. of OUR so-called “world-leaders”.
“WikiLeaks plans to release a U.S. bank’s documents”
This is the change I’ve been hoping for.
Transparency is coming to government, whether they like it or not.
(And they obviously don’t like it)
As I’ve been saying, the change is coming and the Internet is the game changer.
If this wikileak is truly what they say — that is, internal communications of how the banks rose to become too-big-to-fail — then I don’t think the government will object to it.
If the wikileak also covers the government involvement, they better name some serious names, and name them clearly. Remember that many of those shotgun marriages, and TARP, were engineered by PAULSON and signed by BUSH…not to mention BERNANKE.
I would sooooo like to think that Obama is behind this…. The NYT and Guardian have had the latest wikileaks for several months now, so it’s not as though the WH didn’t know this was coming. As for the umbrage, we’ll, they’d sort of have to, wouldn’t they.
•German unemployment sinks again in November as economic rebound continues. (from the headlines)
I’m awfully glad to see this as the German populace is apparently set to rescue most of the rest of Europe, at least after the pension fund raids are finished. Maybe the US needs to find a patsy state. Perhaps one still solvent due to the energy sector?
Wow - a sound fiscal policy and a strong manufacturing industrial base actually leads to a robust economy…
strong manufacturing industrial base
Maybe we should ask Jack Welch and Carly Fiorina about that.
Oh, boy, oxide, you read my mind.
I’ve been doing quite a bit of grumbling about the lack of CEOs who understand the technology that their companies create and sell. And manufacturing. There’s a real shortage of CEOs who understand manufacturing.
CEOs only need to understand how to maximize their bonuses. Downsizing, selling divisions, selling intellectual property, buying, or selling out to, a competitor– whatever it takes.
Of course the board of directors has to get a piece of the action in order to go along with the CEO’s plan.
You’d be amazed how many CEOs are brought on board to primarily turn a company around and then sell it.
Not just them, but the entire GOP and why they voted against ENDING tax breaks for offshoring jobs.
And a large social safety net and strong unions apparently don’t hurt either.
Americans buying lots and lots of BMWs, Mercedes, Audi, and VWs sort of help also.
Most VWs sold in the US are built in Puebla, Mexico.
Maybe the US needs to find a patsy state.
It’s called “China”.
But wait! Doesn’t Germany have, like, unions and socialized medicine and generous unemployment?
But, but, but….
Perhaps they do, but do they have the mutlicultural generational welfare class that we have?
We do? Since when?
Liar.
Yes, it began with LBJ’s Great Society.
Blind fool.
uh huh…. every single person in the country over the age of 65 is on welfare?
You really are a liar. A coward for hiding behind another name.
Why would they when they have a better educational system and more employment opportunities with better pay?
This calls for a Congressional Injunction:
Must be stopped in the name of all that is corrupt!
http://finance.yahoo.com/banking-budgeting/article/111440/exclusive-wikileaks-will-unveil-major-bank-scandal?sec=topStories&pos=1&asset=&ccode=
urban garden… aren’t they working on turning those into criminal a activity via the bill known as S 510?
Makes everybody dependent on government cheese and rice.
If it’s fried cheese and fried rice, America will be happy.
If I may paraphrase Charlton Heston, they’ll have to pry the fried cheese curds from our cold, dead hands.
Americans are still free to eat whatever pleases them unless they live in NYC.
LOL
I just looked up S 510. It basically puts a lot of regulations on farmers in the name of tracability and safety. It’s well-meaning, but small farmers have no hope of affording to comply, effectively putting them out of business. Cargill and ADM are probably rejoicing.
However, it appears to apply only to farmers that sell their produce, not to people who grow their own.
Yet testing for Mad Cow is still illegal.
The bill seems so vague that it is impossible to know what it will or won’t do. After reading the snopes webpage, it’s does seem that home gardens will be outlawed, probably via some backdoor route such as fertilizer regulations or some such.
Creating a government body to determine what the rules are and allows it to decide how the law will be applied equals a slippery slope for sure.
What if you go organic?
There’s no way either party will outlaw backyard gardens- for one thing it would be impossible, for another thing it would be political suicide. The rub is going to be on small farmers who sell thru farmer’s markets and directly to restaurants and stores. It may be just as simple as making them keep records of to whom (commercially) and where they sell their produce. That wouldn’t be outrageous. It would be impossible to keep a record of all retail sales, so I don’t see that happening.
“The rub is going to be on small farmers who sell thru farmer’s markets and directly to restaurants and stores.”
Just more of the same= corporate America pushing the little guy down then steamrolling him thanks to crooked politicians bought and paid for by special interest money. I’m ready for a revolt.
NASA to Hold News Conference on Astrobiology Discovery
MOFFETT FIELD, Calif. — NASA will hold a news conference at 11 a.m. PST on Thursday, Dec. 2, to discuss an astrobiology finding that will impact the search for evidence of extraterrestrial life. Astrobiology is the study of the origin, evolution, distribution and future of life in the universe.
http://www.nasa.gov/centers/ames/news/releases/2010/M10-110.html
Maybe Realtors are aliens?
“Maybe Realtors are aliens?”
Big Bang: “one & done, …habitable planet process subject to “Available Now” & natural “Coming Soon!” recycling processes. (Remember, no organism is an island, be prepared for “multiple bids”)
They’re not making any more planets. At least not near by.
Friend at (notoriously chintzy,) JPL told me of the proposed giveaway:
“I discovered life on Mars and all I got was this lousy t-shirt.”
Yay! Wikileaks has Wall Street in its sights next:
(from Forbes)
We have one related to a bank coming up, that’s a megaleak. It’s not as big a scale as the Iraq material, but it’s either tens or hundreds of thousands of documents depending on how you define it.
Is it a U.S. bank?
Yes, it’s a U.S. bank.
One that still exists?
Yes, a big U.S. bank.
The biggest U.S. bank?
No comment.
When will it happen?
Early next year. I won’t say more.
What do you want to be the result of this release?
[Pauses] I’m not sure.
It will give a true and representative insight into how banks behave at the executive level in a way that will stimulate investigations and reforms, I presume.
Usually when you get leaks at this level, it’s about one particular case or one particular violation. For this, there’s only one similar example. It’s like the Enron emails. Why were these so valuable? When Enron collapsed, through court processes, thousands and thousands of emails came out that were internal, and it provided a window into how the whole company was managed. It was all the little decisions that supported the flagrant violations.
This will be like that. Yes, there will be some flagrant violations, unethical practices that will be revealed, but it will also be all the supporting decision-making structures and the internal executive ethos that cames out, and that’s tremendously valuable. Like the Iraq War Logs, yes there were mass casualty incidents that were very newsworthy, but the great value is seeing the full spectrum of the war.
You could call it the ecosystem of corruption. But it’s also all the regular decision making that turns a blind eye to and supports unethical practices: the oversight that’s not done, the priorities of executives, how they think they’re fulfilling their own self-interest. The way they talk about it.
The online vitriol being directed at those guys is jaw dropping, I didn’t realize so many found ignorance to be so comforting.
I had to stop eating chicken nuggets after I saw a video of how they are made.
My guess is that it will be Citibank. I hope it will be Goldman-Sachs.
It’s Bank of America from what I’m reading.
Now that Obama has fired a warning shot across the bow of the U.S. federal workforce, does he intend to get down to serious business on deficit reduction measures?
America’s Debt Crisis
Obama’s debt commission report: 4 flash points
By Jeanne Sahadi, senior writer
November 30, 2010: 5:13 AM ET
NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) — Get ready for some heated rhetoric about how to contain the unsustainable national debt.
The spark will be lit by President Obama’s bipartisan debt commission, which is set on Wednesday to vote on a final set of recommendations. That report will be an amended version of a plan put out three weeks ago by the panel’s co-chairmen, Erskine Bowles and Alan Simpson.
Congress, Obama and your money
What you hear this week is just the start of a long national conversation. Next year, Obama and Congress will attempt to turn talk into policies.
But for now, here’s a look at just four flash points likely to dominate the reaction to the commission’s report: Social Security, defense spending, the mortgage interest deduction and the spending vs. taxes debate. (Take the CNNMoney deficit quiz)
…
Whatever the final split, the endgame is to stabilize debt as a percentage of the economy, and then to reduce it over time.
Today, the country’s accumulated debt is roughly 60% of GDP. Barring any changes, it’s slated to top 87% by 2020 and approach 200% by 2035, according to the Congressional Budget Office.
Interesting, no mention of Medicare or the health care law…
Cutting defense spending will mean lost jobs for the contractors. On the one hand I hope it doesn’t happen because I know a couple defense contractors. On the other…they’ve been juicy and fat for decades. Or better yet, why not take all those scientists and put them to work on stuff like renewable energy or plain efficiency of everything from stoplights to programming. Once you have an area of expertise, it’s not difficult to learn enough to apply it to something new.
“Make no mistake, my words are as worthless as my promises.” -B Obama
Even more interesting: No mention of pay cuts for Congress. I guess they aren’t part of the federal government any more?
I wish someone gave me $150k job with benefits and froze it.
Question 2 on the CNN quiz indicates the $13 trillion is 89% of the economy right now; not in 2020.
(Olygal’s Ghost chides Professor Bear): “Smarty pants!”
Think you’re smart about deficits? Try this
Deficits. Taxes. Spending. Could you help Washington find a way out of the nation’s fiscal pickle? Take the CNNMoney debt quiz.
By Jeanne Sahadi, senior writer
Done Final score: 10 of 10 points
You got 10 of 10 questions correct.
Did you ever work for the Congressional Budget Office? If not, you might apply.
Only got 7 right. I was told “You clearly know enough about the debt situation to know that it’s a concern, but not so much that it ruins your social life.”
Count me as another 70 percenter. And rightfully so. My social life is important.
Seven out of ten here as well.
7 out of 10 for me too.
ditto.
Hey Gal. Hugs.
9 of 10. And I got the same suggestion as PBear.
I chalk it up to years of practice at multiple choice questions.
5 out of 10 …are you grading on a deficient deficit type curve Mr. Bear?
I do have a few questions on x1 of the problems Mr. Bear…
1. What was the the US of A worth 76 years ago?,…what is it’s approx valuation today? How does it’s current value compare to Sweden? (Please include guesstimated natural resources, including Monsanto Inc. food & pesticide patents)
Sheesh…I only got 6 correct but that’s 4 more than Timothy F. Geithner got!!
Six here. Might as well throw darts.
Hwy,
How is your sister doing?
Well SFBayAreaGal (Thanks for the remembrance), …she’s gone, throat cancer, age 55 (mostly adult life of cigarettes & some drug use)…just before the Thanksgiving Family feast.
If I could draw you an image of her through her years, she started off quite like Tatum O’Neal in Paper Moon, end up kinda like granny in the Beverly Hillbillies.
Sorry to hear that Mr. Hwy
I remember Tatum O’Neal in Paper Moon, your sister must have been special.
I remember Tatum O’Neal in Paper Moon
Me too.
Remember the scene where she and the older character got away from the authorities? Young Tatum demanded to go to the shhhhh! house.
They let her do that, and the next thing you know, she’s hollering “Run!” Which the two of them do.
My condolences, Hwy.
Oh Hwy, I’m sorry to hear about your sister’s passing. I hate CANCER
SFBayAreaGal, lavi d, Slim, Mr. saturday
Thanks for all your condolences, …(she’d made ya’all laugh I’m certain of that,)…I’m still quietly working on her loss…final service is this coming Monday.
Hwy, please accept my sincere condolences as well.
7 for 10 here….Are we grading on the curve ??
Yeah, because all of us 70 percenters want A’s.
You just guessed a bit better…laughing
The Economic Grindstone
It is becoming abundantly clear that the real power in the United States is in the hands of a few financial terrorists.
These boyz never saw a trillion $$$ they wouldn’t just go ahead and print.
What does this do to J6P in 2011?
More of the same, only worse.
Inflation for Peons is not the Official Inflation, you can bet your poor ass.
Employment tends to be self generated or none.
Who can afford gas or even the insurance on a car much less buy one.
It seems there are a lot of unnecessary people and aggressive police everywhere in the big cities.
Food seems to a lot more expensive than we were kids.
Don’t ever get sick.
“What does this do to J6P in 2011?”
Let’s see…
His kids will continue to sign up for the military since even jobs at McDonalds and WalMart will be hard to get.
He will be told that auto sales are rising even as local dealerships continue to fold.
He will watch as food prices continue to skyrocket while the gov’t crows about “record low inflation”. He will adjust his diet and consume fewer fresh foods and instead consume more artificial processed food.
Meanwhile, Federal Gov’t employees will grumble that their pay raises will be partially cancelled. (Imagine the wailing and gnashing of teeth if they had their pay reduced like many have had in the private sector or if there were mass layoffs).
His kids will continue to sign up for the military since even jobs at McDonalds and WalMart will be hard to get.
There will be no jobs there.
The military is going to get cut along with everything else in the next few years.
I remember the Clinton military (cut by almost 50%). There were huge layoffs in the military (they did not call them that) and whole units just disappeared. Training came to a standstill.
On the bright side - many ROTC students that just graduated were told by the military - “thanks but no thanks - but we don’t need you. You can keep the money”
I remember the Clinton military (cut by almost 50%). There were huge layoffs in the military (they did not call them that) and whole units just disappeared. Training came to a standstill.
Back when I was in college, I dated a fellow who was planning to make a career in the Navy. Or he was until the Clinton cuts came along. When they did, the Navy decided that it could do without him.
It didn’t just affect ROTC; even ring-knockers were affected. A friend’s little brother graduated from the Air Force Academy and was basicly told “Here’s a reserve comission, come back in 6 months, we might have a job for you then.”
Yep - but he still got a free education with no payback. I would call it even.
Well they did put him to work later, but after graduation he was rootless and payless for a bit.
I had a friend whom I knew had never been in the service. I was shocked when he told me he was an Annapolis grad, and even showed me his ring.
He was a Marine cadet at the Academy, scheduled to become a Marine pilot. In his senior year, his eyesight went south and he flunked his flight physical. So they just let him graduate but didn’t give him a commission. This would have been around 1974 at the end of the Vietnam era when they were downsizing the military.
He got a free education - a EE - and didn’t have to serve or pay it back.
David Robinson was kicked out after Annapolis because he grew taller than the max Navy height allowed.
Dennis I was in the Army form 1975-1978. The downsizing of the armed services started during the Carter into Reagan administration. Long before the Clinton administration.
The end of the Vietnam War and the Cold War both led to bouts of shrinking the military. The same was true of the Civil War, WWI, WWII, Korea etc.
I knew a guy who was flunked out of West Point when the passing math grade was abruptly raised. Congress was cutting military spending. That was 1927.
In 1940 he and a bunch of other flunkies went to OCS and finally got their commissions, in time for WWII.
“There will be no jobs there.
The military is going to get cut along with everything else in the next few years.”
True dat. The military will really get to cherry pick who they “hire”.
True dat. The military will really get to cherry pick who they “hire”.
Which they’ve always done.
my brother graduated from west point in 89. he got out early due to the clinton cuts.
he really liked the military…but they never sent him to the first gulf war. he would of stayed in if they had though.
he’s an fbi agent now…so i reckon he is still serving his country one way or the other.
“He will watch as food prices continue to skyrocket while the gov’t crows about “record low inflation”. He will adjust his diet and consume fewer fresh foods and instead consume more artificial processed food.”
I think that it will be the reverse if food prices skyrocket (which I’m not saying will happen in the first place). He will start growing/trading for fresh foods and eschew the processed. Lots of time and no job will remove the “I have no time to cook” excuse (when he’s really just watching DWTS or some such tripe).
Well, that’s what I hope. I know, I know. How’s that hopey changey thing goin’ fer ya?
Beans - it’s what’s for dinner.
America’s Debt Crisis
Why U.S. debt matters to you
By Jeanne Sahadi, senior writerJune 3, 2010: 11:38 AM ET
NEW YORK (CNNMoney dot com) — Letting U.S. debt grow unabated is often framed as an unforgivable burden to heap on one’s grandchildren.
But there are plenty of reasons today’s parents might be concerned for themselves and their kids.
If Congress doesn’t craft a plan to address long-term fiscal shortfalls after the economy recovers, potential problems could arise sooner rather than later, debt experts say.
…
The Donald loves debt–reverse leverage!
Published: Nov. 26, 2010
Updated: Nov. 28, 2010 1:16 p.m.
How state budget failed in 33 days
By BRIAN JOSEPH
THE ORANGE COUNTY REGISTER
Lawmakers and the governor enacted the current state budget on Oct. 8, exactly 100 days late (the latest state budget in recorded history). At the time, the budget was balanced, as required under law.
Thirty-three days later, on Nov. 10, the nonpartisan and well-respected Legislative Analyst’s Office announced that the current budget now has a deficit of $6.1 billion (which combined with next year’s projected deficit equals $25.4 billion over 18 months).
What the heck happened?
…
“Exclusive: WikiLeaks will unveil major bank scandal. - Forbes”
Here comes the financial scandals, and along with the scandals will come lower stock prices.
Patient investors will be given free reign of the candy shop.
More than candy, I want to see some swan dives and bank walls blemished from single shots.
Say it with a Frankenstein voice:
Muggy aannnngry to-day
There’s a great picture of a woman standing in front of the NYSE building holding a cardboard sign which says “JUMP! You F*kers!” I had to edit it, but you can look up the full version on google images.
If you want to answer the question of why we have such a huge glut of oversized, unwanted McMansions, look no further than the mortgage interest deduction, which provides a subsidy to build and own more house than the owner occupant needs to live in.
And the mortgage interest deduction applies to real estate investors, too!
Tax deduction for mortgage interest sometimes overrated
Benny L. Kass • November 28, 2010
Dear Benny — Our son and his wife sold their home and bought a large Victorian home down South, did extensive remodeling and now have a bed-and-breakfast and tea room. They have a mortgage on their home, and since they do not have much income yet from their new business venture, we have been paying their mortgage.
It appears that because our son doesn’t have much income, he won’t be able to take the mortgage interest deduction, and because we aren’t on their deed, we can’t either. What would be the best way for us to take the interest deduction?
…
Dear Benny — Our son and his wife sold their home and bought a large Victorian home down South, did extensive remodeling and now have a bed-and-breakfast and tea room. They have a mortgage on their home, and since they do not have much income yet from their new business venture, we have been paying their mortgage.
Oh, no. Another B&B dreamer.
Reminds me of that forlorn looking valley that my aunt and I drove through when we were on our way up to Canada. At the end of a very long driveway, we spotted a “for sale” sign. One of many that we saw in northern VT.
Near the “for sale” sign was a B&B sign. Looked to me like the B&B had failed.
Bed & Breakfast. The most idiotic fail prone business ever…. right next to “vineyards”.
Alpaca farms.
Don’t forget scrapbooking supply stores.
But…what if they’ve always wanted to run a bed & breakfast??
The fools and the RE agents had a rage with the B&B in Wisconsin for several years.
I saw smirking reatlywhores and vacancy signs…
mikey,
Did you buy your house?
Response:
Dear Idiots. You are SOL.
clark
Thanks for introducing us to S510. Boy, that bill smells like M*nsanto is trying to squeeze out the small farmers, they haven’t already sued or bankrupt out of business. TPTB always put a positive spin on devious objectives.
“The Future Of Food” A Documentary now on HULU-free online 1:30 HRS
Read the snopes page on S510.
Why not just call the mortgage interest deduction what it is, which is welfare for the wealthy?
Financial bailouts were similarly a welfare-for-the-wealthy program:
They forced Main Street Americans to funnel their life savings and future prospects into paying for Wall Street bankers’ bonuses.
Posted at 4:05 PM ET, 11/16/2010
Who does the mortgage-interest deduction benefit?
By Ezra Klein
Alex Hart has a good post examining whether the mortgage-interest tax deduction — which will cost taxpayers $131 billion in 2012 — is really a “middle-class tax break,” as some people like to claim. The answer is no, but it really deserves a graph:
(Graph 1)
As you can see, the less money you make, the less the mortgage-interest tax deduction does for you. But putting it in percentile terms understates the situation, as 1 percent of a big salary is a lot more money than 1 percent of a small salary. So here’s the same graph in raw dollars:
(Graph 2)
On both graphs, the benefits for the bottom 40 percent of the income distribution are invisible. That’s not because they literally don’t exist, but because the deduction is worth $2 to people between in the bottom fifth and $32 for the quintile after that. As for the top 1 percent? They’re getting a break of more than $5,000. I’m not really clear why we’re giving people making hundreds of thousands a year large subsidies to buy a house, but I’m sure there’s a good reason.
Socialism for the rich, no holds barred capitalism for the rest of us.
And then they have the NERVE to whine about paying more taxes.
The mortgage interest deduction is not so much a tax giveaway, as it is a welfare program for the wealthy. Wake up, America!
The Case For (and Against) Killing the Mortgage Interest Deduction
Nov 15 2010, 5:54 PM ET
In our Flashcard series, The Atlantic aims to decode the concepts and terms readers encounter every day but seldom see explained. Today’s installment: the plan by the chairmen of the deficit commission to change the mortgage interest deduction.
The News
The chairmen of the president’s deficit commission skewered a number of sacred cows in their widely discussed, and widely criticized, report. But few ideas have received more outrage than the plan to limit the mortgage interest deduction — the costliest tax giveaway in the United States. What is the mortgage interest deduction and why should we want to reduce it?
…
They should just ax the thing entirely. If you pay more in interest than the standard deduction, then your house is an indication that you don’t need government help.
Or, make it an incentive for only your first house; not primary residence, I mean FIRST house buy.
Your first idea is FAR better. Don’t back down.
But I thought the rich were self motivated, self reliant and resourceful and only the lazy and poor got welfare?
Maire Antoinette is alive and well.
Rich Americans Ditch Home Ownership For Renting
Patrick Lee went from homeowner to home renter this year.
It may sound like a downgrade, but the New Yorker didn’t make the switch because he couldn’t keep up with payments or because he lost his job. Instead, Lee was nervous about the state of the housing market.
So in March he sold the Manhattan apartment he bought in 2008 for about the same price he paid and moved — along with his wife and child — a few steps away into a luxury, two-bedroom rental unit in a brand new building.
Lee wouldn’t disclose what he’s paying, but similar two-bedroom apartments in the building usually rent for $11,000 a month.
“I wanted to protect ourselves from prices going down,” says Lee, who is a managing director at a major bank. “I didn’t want to be an owner anymore.”
Lee has company. Demand for luxury rental units has increased as wealthier individuals who can afford to buy are deciding not to, according to brokers and real estate analysts in affluent areas of the country such as New York City, Chicago and San Francisco.
“More affluent Americans are opting to rent as oppose to buy,” says Jack McCabe, an independent real estate analyst and CEO of McCabe Research and Consulting in Deerfield Beach, Fla. “Within the last year, so many people have seen their family and friends get burned in real estate. They don’t see it as being a risk free investment as they used to.”
And they’re paying top dollar to rent.
In Manhattan the demand for high-end rentals has never been hotter. In the third quarter of 2010 there were 200 new leases signed for rentals charging $10,000 a month and up, more than double the 89 leases signed the year before, according to Jonathan Miller, CEO and president of New York City-based real estate appraisal and consulting firm Miller Samuel.
Miller says that while high-end sales have picked up recently in Manhattan, the increased demand for luxury rentals shows that more would-be buyers are concerned and taking the “wait and see approach.”
The demand is also being seen in Marin County, right across the Golden Gate Bridge from San Francisco.
Last year, the phones at Foundation Rentals & Relocation office were ringing constantly with high-end homeowners wanting to rent property that they couldn’t sell, but no one was interested in renting them.
Now the firm is getting calls from executives, especially in the technology sector, looking to move into a rental.
“They’re entrepreneurs. They would rather put their cash in their business,” says Darcy Barrow, who founded the firm with her husband Christopher Barrow.
“And get a greater return,” adds Christopher.
“More affluent Americans are opting to rent as oppose to buy,” says Jack McCabe, an independent real estate analyst and CEO of McCabe Research and Consulting in Deerfield Beach, Fla. “Within the last year, so many people have seen their family and friends get burned in real estate. They don’t see it as being a risk free investment as they used to.”
Is this the very same Jack McCabe who posts here now and then?
If only Eddie were still posting here, I am sure the DJIA would be cruising towards 12K by New Year’s Day.
Index Futures:
S&P 500 1,176 -10.50 -0.89%
DOW 10,933 -106.00 -0.96%
NASDAQ 2,123 -22.50 -1.05%
Europe’s debt to clip Street
Spanish bond yields soar
The euro-zone’s sovereign-debt crisis intensifies, pressuring European officials to take more action.
• European markets struggle for direction
• U.K. index holds steady; banks under pressure
• Shanghai closes at lowest level in seven weeks
U.S. stock futures trade marginally lower as Europe’s debt fears refuse to take a backseat.
Noticed Georgia boy and Georgia girl stopped posting here right around the time Eddie lost his posting privledges. Perhaps it’s a coincidence???
“Georgia boy and Georgia girl ”
Why did the song “Jet Boy Jet Girl” just pop into my head???
Funny, I always thought Eddie was the alter ego of joeyincalifornia (I think that’s his name)
Nah. Eddie was a brat. Joey, however maddening, is a gentleman. That counts.
I’m hoping its Countrywide!
WikiLeaks plans to release a U.S. bank’s documents
(Reuters) - The founder of whistle-blower website WikiLeaks plans to release tens of thousands of internal documents from a major U.S. bank early next year, Forbes Magazine reported on Monday.
Julian Assange declined in an interview with Forbes to identify the bank, but he said that he expected that the disclosures, which follow his group’s release of U.S. military and diplomatic documents, would lead to investigations.
“We have one related to a bank coming up, that’s a megaleak. It’s not as big a scale as the Iraq material, but it’s either tens or hundreds of thousands of documents depending on how you define it,” Assange said in the interview posted on the Forbes website.
The holy grail would be Goldman Sachs.
Is Goldman a bank?
Investment bank? Guess it depends on the definition of bank.
In a ploy to bail out Investment Firms they became Banks leading up to TARP so they would qualify for Tarp and the discount
window and all the government bail outs . In addition they bailed out AIG the Insurance Company to make good on their Credit Default Swaps in which bets were made on MBS’s with no money to back those bets . The financial reforms didn’t take away those casinos .
Really ,you had a bunch of greedy Mad Men going crazy with greed
without any feeling of responsibility to protect other peoples money
I just don’t know why they aren’t in jail and why aren’t they stripped of the heists they made off with . Congress has done nothing but protect these elite Fat Cat criminals .
Didn’t a lot of financial institutions re-organize as “bank holding companies” in order to get bailout funds?
The holy grail would be Goldman Sachs.
A Very Nice Grail Indeed would be Citibank or B of A.
Dude! Que pasa? How’s family life and all that? Do you have a 2nd now, or are you holding off? Any job/housing news to share?
Hi Muggy!
Things are going well. Just one kid (he’s two now), with no immediate plans to broaden the family tree.
I’m still freelancing, and have been incredibly busy since July. I stop by here when I can, but it’s usually quite late in the day before I can make it.
How’s everything in your neck of the woods? How’s the family?
Status quo now. We had a nutty summer, but all is calm. We’re just doing the family thing and layin’ low.
Real estate always goes up! Still!!
And by the way, why does it matter in the least what economists forecast, given their terrible track records?
Home Prices in U.S. Cities Rose Less in September Than Economists Forecast
By Shobhana Chandra - Nov 30, 2010 6:00 AM PT
…
The S&P/Case-Shiller index of property values climbed 0.6 percent from September 2009, the smallest gain since January, the last time prices declined year over year, the group said today in New York. The increase was smaller than the 1 percent median forecast in a Bloomberg News survey of economists.
…
How the Government Is Creating Another Housing Bubble
http://american.com/archive/2010/november/how-the-government-is-creating-another-housing-bubble
I’m glad they are trimming the federal payroll to help ensure they will have sufficient funds on hand to fuel another housing bubble.
…
It is hard to believe, but it looks like the government will soon use the taxpayers’ checkbook again to create a vast market for mortgages with low or no down payments and for overstretched borrowers with blemished credit. As in the period leading to the 2008 financial crisis, these loans will again contribute to a housing bubble, which will feed on government funding and grow to enormous size. When it collapses, housing prices will drop and a financial crisis will ensue. And, once again, the taxpayers will have to bear the costs.
In doing this, Congress is repeating the same policy mistake it made in 1992. Back then, it mandated that Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac compete with the Federal Housing Administration (FHA) for high-risk loans. Unhappily for both their shareholders and the taxpayers, Fannie and Freddie won that battle.
Now the Dodd-Frank Act, which imposed far-reaching new regulation on the financial system after the meltdown, allows the administration to substitute the FHA for Fannie and Freddie as the principal and essentially unlimited buyer of low-quality home mortgages. There is little doubt what will happen then.
…
If they do another housing bubble we are going to need a bigger blog.
You just reminded me of the old Taco Bell commercial with the chihuahua.
It was the one where he was trying trap Godzilla. The closing line was: “I tink I need a beeger box.”
My favorite from the movie Jaws “we’re gonna need a bigger boat”
Belt tightening is the only way!
Even President Obama is beginning to see that the heavy hand of austerity is needed to begin to even make a dent in the budget deficit and the accumulating public debt. He has announced a two-year pay freeze for federal workers, saving up to $5 billion in two years, and $28 billion in five. ~ Pay Freeze ~
Federal government unions are already howling about the “unfairness” of this move. “Federal law enforcement officers have been sacrificing for our country since the attacks on 9/11, and now we’re being asked to bear the brunt of a failing economy,” said Jon Adler, president of the Federal Law Enforcement Officers Association.
> For Pete’s sake, Mr, Adler! Lighten up! You are NOT “taking the brunt” of a failing economy. You’re only being asked to tighten your belt like those of us out in the civilian population.
Yes, and I believe I read somewhere (perhaps through a link on this blog) that Fedgov employees make about 1/3 more than their private industry counterparts for similar or equivalent gigs. Not to mention they have much better benefits.
Yes, and I read somewhere that Fedgov employees make 24% LESS than their private counterparts.
For comparison, please note that normal Fedgov employees top out at $150K or so. I’m pretty sure that the equivalent private sector does not top out at $115. More like twice that. That’s why the gov has those benefits; to keep employees from jumping ship.
The president was correct. Highly skilled workers are underpaid and less skilled workers are overpaid. I think this is especially pronounced if the lower skilled workers have been with the government for 15 years or more. At that point a lower skilled worker in the private sector would probably have hit an absolute upper bound with salary, while a fed will still get the “catch up with the private sector” increases (not COLAs) and step increases, though not every year.
And the grade evaluations of certain administrative personnel are overblown. It may be left over from when being able to learn to use several different complex computer based administrative tools was considered a skilled position. These days being able to work with computers is not a lot more skilled than being literate, though with the age of some of our systems (DOS based, really?) it isn’t as easy as it should be. Anyway, that is my guess as to where the real unfairness lies. That and the fact that people who live and work in West Virginia get the same “high compensation urban area” adjustment as people who live and work in DC/close in MD/NoVa. I’m sure there are a few other urban areas that could use a boundary readjustment
And of course the system was created when private industry had a much flatter wage scale. Keep in mind that back in 1963 the higest marginal rate was 91%!!!!! So the rich had other ways of keeping score rather than just adding another million to their salaries.
Jim,
Good points. Inertia is real in the federal HR system.
Please note that I am not howling. Not even surprised, really. Do I love it? No, of course not. No one loves hearing that there is no chance of a pay increase, especially when I know for a fact that my rent is going up this January and next January. Health insurance too. But I love the job, and I’ll deal with it.
And I’m sure that you’re not alone in your sentiments, polly.
There are more than a few people who are trying to get federal jobs these days. I don’t think a pay freeze will deter them.
Not to mention all the businesses that are trying to sell to the feds. I was at a GSA seminar earlier this fall, during which I heard that the number of wannabe federal sellers is three times what it would normally be.
Spare us, polly. You’ll still be getting your annual in-grade step raise.
No, I won’t. I am currently mid-grade, so step level increases are only every other year. At the top of a grade, they only come every three years. I’ll go over a year and a half without another penny. I’m still OK with it.
“I’ll go over a year and a half without another penny.”
Many of us in the private sector have already had the same experience…
And she is aware of that, hence “I’m still OK with it.”
“Spare us, polly. You’ll still be getting your annual in-grade step raise.”
Rude, wrong AND talking out of la derriere. Please reserve any anger felt toward mid-grade government workers for the real culprits, bankers and their elected b-boys and girls.
Thanks Colorado and MrBubble. Appreciate it. It is nice to be “heard.”
“And she is aware of that, hence “I’m still OK with it.””
Yeah, I understood that, Colorado… I didn’t mean to imply otherwise. I just meant to say “we know how you feel, polly…”
Flat or declining wages in times where the things you need are still inflating (other than housing) implies continued reduction in the velocity of money.
Welcome to the real world Polly.
Just remember that there is no inflation, so your rent is not really going up and your healthcare is not going up.
A government worker told me we are in a deflationary period.
I spent plenty of time in the real world. Got fairly large increases every year I had a job. Even got a pay raise a month and a half before getting laid off once, but that was a German company so they were a little weird.
i’m in the private sector and havn’t had a pay increase in two years…and my wife lost her job 5 months ago.
I know people at Hewlett Packard who haven’t a pay increase in 6+ years, and these are the “keepers”, the ones who didn’t get laid off (yet).
I can vouch for that.
Me either and my wife who works for a health care provider is in that same boat as well….and our companies are doing well.
Most of the Fortune 500 posted their 7th straight quarterly profit, yet are not giving out raise or hiring.
Remember my explanation of voodoo, er, “supply side” economics?
A pay freeze must only be the first step. Cuts will come. I’m a little surprised that the govt didn’t start with a plan for a 30% cut, only to settle for 20% or something like that. Going small and working your way up means fighting the same battle with the unions repeately.
“A pay freeze must only be the first step. Cuts will come.”
I live in a small “fly-over” town, and the place is just loaded with SSDI welfare families. Among the most difficult social services issues are people with morbid obesity aggravated by diabetes and liver problems, which are very expensive chronic diseases. I don’t think cuts in services to these people are truly possible in the real world. Keeping their kids from following down the same path appears to be the only strategy, and the success rate is bleak. An asteroid strike is probably the only lasting solution.
Net neutrality we don’t need no net neutrality
WASHINGTON – Level 3 Communications Inc., an Internet backbone company that supports Netflix Inc.’s increasingly popular movie streaming service, complained Monday that cable giant Comcast Corp. is charging it an unfair fee for the right to send data to its subscribers.
Comcast replied it is being swamped by a flood of data and needs to be paid.
Level 3 said it agreed to pay under protest, but that the fee violates the principles of an “open Internet.” It also goes against the Federal Communications Commission’s proposed rules preventing broadband Internet providers from favoring certain types of traffic, it said.
“Comcast is effectively putting up a toll booth at the borders of its broadband Internet access network, enabling it to unilaterally decide how much to charge for content,” said Level 3’s chief legal officer, Thomas Stortz, in a statement.
How long before Compast starts it’s own netflix and runs netflix into the ground.
How long before Compast starts it’s own netflix and runs netflix into the ground.
Did you mean to say Compost?
Comcast already has limited movies and TV on demand. Movies are anywhere from $2.99 and $9.99 each except for a very limted group of free movies. Some TV episodes cost as well. Even if the fee caused netflix to raise its prices by 50%, netflix would still be a bargain.
and what if it increased the price 150%. There really is no limit at this point.
If there is a big player between you and your customer, your days are numbered. Think AOL and Earthlink and all those other old, mostly forgotten ISPs. The phone company stood between them and their customers and they eventually got creamed. Same thing will happen to Netflix et. al.
There is a huge difference between Netflix and Comcast on demand. Mainly timing.
Theater-Comcast-DVD-Netflix
Comcast has had many years to come up with a strategy, but monopolies are not used to coming up with new ideas.
A few more years and they will follow Blockbuster into bankruptcy as more and more people find they can do without 37 shopping channels.
Netflix on the iPad is amazing.
Or communications will be priced by the gigabyte. But so long as many connections are “unlimited” the light users will subsidize the heavy users. And that represents an inefficiency that the market will resist.
Comcast has had many years to come up with a strategy, but monopolies are not used to coming up with new ideas.
A good friend of mine worked for one of the RBOCs back in the 1990s. The sentiment expressed above pretty well summed up his experience at Ameritech.
BTW, friend and three coworkers bailed out of Ameritech and started their own company. They later sold said company to Cisco Systems for $25M.
My friend is now working on starting another company.
Comcast has had many years to come up with a strategy, but monopolies are not used to coming up with new ideas.
Not only has Comcast failed to come up with anything more than an ad hoc strategy, they’ve failed miserably in creating a usable interface for consumers to make use of their ad hoc strategy.
Anyone who’s labored through the OnDemand menus knows what I’m talking about — think about the user-facing feature-set for Netflix vs. the cable companies. They are orders of magnitude apart.
“A few more years and they will follow Blockbuster into bankruptcy as more and more people find they can do without 37 shopping channels.
Netflix on the iPad is amazing.”
Ah, but can you watch ESPN on your iPad? I did watch some world cup matches on ESPN3, but can you watch MNF online? (I honestly don’t know. FWIW I don’t watch MNF unless the our local losers, the Broncos are playing).
Nope, no major sports to be had on the iPad.
I think sports will be the last hold out. They are risking the loss of a complete generation of fans.
As TV vieweship goes down, contract money will go down.
It will be interesting to see if the NFL goes on strike this year and the effects on viewership.
It will be interesting to see if the NFL goes on strike this year and the effects on viewership.
Isn’t it a bit late in the season for the NFL to be out on strike?
Comcast is getting in the game with xfinity.com. Xfinity’s selling point mirrors the typical cable or fiber providers 3 services discount package - TV, Internet and voice. However, the cost still leaves much to be desired.
Would be interesting is to see Netflix ratchet up the competition by offering voice.
Cell phones are all people need any more. Why pay for a home phone when a cell phone is the same price?
I pay for a home phone (which is a VoIP phone) and don’t use a cell phone except for calling 911.
Why am I such a light cell phone user? In a word, ergonomics. I have a hearing loss and find it very difficult to hear cell phones because of their flat shape.
Comcast is primarily in the content delivery business, whereas Netflix is in the content business. Yes, Comcast offers PPV movies and a handful of free, older ones. But there is little to prevent Comcast from vastly increasing that supply, and tweaking their price to compete with Netflix. Comcast could even take the route of delivering the movies using their network’s internet capacity instead of their TV capacity.
The cable companies are losing TV subscribers. They will be trying lots of things to stem or reverse that loss.
IMHO cell phones are turning into a scam as more and more folks are being forced or hoodwinked into purchasing a data plan.
“But there is little to prevent Comcast from vastly increasing that supply…”
Except for the fact that others own the rights to the content. Just because you watch a movie on channel 48 provided by Comcast, doesn’t mean that they had the right to show it to you, at the time of your choice and without commercials, two years ago.
Comcast is primarily in the content delivery business, whereas Netflix is in the content business. Umm… the STUDIOS are in the content business, until Netflix starts MAKING movies, they’re still in the content delivery business.
Slim get a nice Plantronics headset. They make a world of difference. I had to use one at work and got hooked on them.
I believe Comcast now owns NBC
Slim get a nice Plantronics headset. They make a world of difference. I had to use one at work and got hooked on them.
Slim here. Can you get a Plantronics headset (both ears) that will interface with a VoIP phone?
Yours Truly would love to have that sort of setup for making calls. And receiving them.
Unfortunately, Plantronics does not make binaural headsets.
Unfortunately, Plantronics does not make binaural headsets.
And a binaural is what I need. I only have one good ear, but for some reason, putting an earpiece on my “good” side makes things worse.
Slim,
If I were in your situation and was willing to experiment I’d try a good pair of bluetooth headphones designed for use with phones and ipods for listening to music, and see if they could be turned up loud enough for what you want during phone calls.
The ads during football games are all about cell phones and iPads now. “Watch all your favorite movies and shows” on you gee-whiz gadget! First off, I don’t like watching stuff on a 4″ screen. Secondly, the content isn’t worth the trouble. Thirdly, I don’t have time to watch all this TV and movies the first time, much less watch them AGAIN on a 4″ screen.
Meanwhile, I see kids on the Metro with backpacks so loaded that they’re going to get osteoperosis before they get married. All you marketers: stop making cutey things and make something USeFUL. Like, an e-book which opens like a book, screen on both sides, and can display textbook-quality pix in color. PDF with a marking pen. Sell textbooks electronically — either over the ‘net or with single-use pen drives so the kids can carry all their books without looking like Quasimodo. I’m tired of the big-print speak-and-spell…
When you buy an e-book and download it to your Kindle or Apple device, and some time later the device breaks or is lost, are you SOL? What does DMCA allow?
I think that carrying around a lot of books while you are still growing can cause your bones to react and become sturdier as any weight bearing exercise will. Not going to cause osteoperosis. Might cause lower back pain or disk compression…
I think she meant to say scholiosis. It does cause that, especially in girls.
We’ve made an offer on a second house (the first one we offered $120k on a house priced at $180k). The second house is now under contract to somebody else. The second house is a 2100 sq. ft. 1979 4BR/2.5BA brick ranch, remodeled, but with a mostly 1979 kitchen. We think they paid $135k in 2007 (!!!), the tax assessment is for $154k, we offered $165k, and they wanted $219k. (Back 10 years ago, the tax assessment was for under $90k, which is pretty wild.) I don’t know what the buyer is offering. On the one hand, I wish we got it (it would have been a walking commute for my husband and no need for a second car for the family). On the other hand, even the $165k was a pretty big deal for us (we were hoping to do a 15 year mortgage), so it’s good we didn’t offer more. On yet a third hand, although the available number of single family homes is very small, I think that neighborhood may be in the process of slowly turning over after being dominated by the original owners, so we may have other opportunities down the road. The best news in our situation is that while we expected to be kicked out of our rental in spring 2011, it’s looking like we will be able to stay until 2012, which is pretty good, housing-wise.
In a different neighborhood (a well-maintained area of early 20th century homes near downtown), there’s been a sudden explosion of listings in the mid to high-$100s, which is our price range.
We’re in non-trendy Central Texas.
Sorry to hear you didn’t get the house you wanted at your price, but at least you know the comps are working in your direction. Sounds like it won’t be long before you find something.
We’ve been seeing a lot of new listings recently, which is unusual given we are going into the “slow” season.
I’ve noticed exactly the same thing. Who the heck lists in November, just before Thanksgiving?
The unemployed?
The desperate.
Sounds like a soap opera.
Tune in next time to see if William gets approved for food stamps or if Susan can short sell her hopelessly upside down dream home on…..
The unemployed and the desperate.
I’d guess people who fired their earlier RE broker, and were re-listing with a new one. Years ago, somebody here quoted the mantra that “It’s better to be somebody’s second wife, and their third broker.” Only after they’ve blamed a couple of brokers for their inability to sell do some people realize that the market just won’t support their wishing price.
That 1979 kitchen might have REAL wood cabinets…
A friend bought a place of about that vintage… the cabinets were sort of a tired sad yellow-ey varnish. He wanted to rip them out until a woodworker friend took a look and determined the were not only structurally sound but solid birch. They refinished beautifully at a cost less than the new particle board cr@p.
Another thing that pizzes me off about the “house flipper” shows…..They always have the obligatory “Bashing the kitchen cabinets with the 20 lb sledge” scene.
Never mind that those old cabinets are probably made out of real wood, instead of glue and sawdust, with a “wood-like decal/veneer” Never mind that they would probably be great to put in the garage or laundry room as work benches, or for storage.
As the great philosopher Forrest Gump said, “Stupid is as stupid does”
keep thrown lowballs-
eventually you will get one!
But it might take 9-12 offers
- better warn your RE Agent you are lookn’ for a deal & they better be willing & able to wait a while & really earn their $$
After a while he/she might start balking at some of your offers - stand yer ground or get rid of them!
9-12 offers? I think we’ve made around 30 offers - and we’re still renting. The one thing this experience has proved to us is that the idea of “falling in love” with a particular house on the market is complete BS, because there really are 29+ more out there either just like it or extremely similar to it.
We don’t have a realtor. Our most recent offer was directly to the seller. I’ve been going door to door in that neighborhood with flyers (”Are you thinking of selling your house?”) and I got a call from the seller a couple months after I flyered. The wife showed me the house. They put up a for-sale-by-owner sign that day and two weeks later I learned that it is under contract. An owner on a neighboring street did something similar (they’re headed to assisted living) and also got a buyer within a week or two. Realtors have been totally out of the loop for these sales. This is a very small faculty/staff neighborhood next to a college.
Are you insane?!! You can’t possibly buy a house without a Realtor. You will not be properly informed on all the various disclosures. Its really quite complicated, you see.
Amy P
I’m glad to meet a mindset like mine. I was thinking of going door to door also, since the pick’ins is slim (So Ca), I’m licensed (not attached), and I thought I’d find a home in our style & neighborhood of choice more so, than hanging my license and do it the conventional way.
Do people perceive you as desperate?
Have homeowners been giving you leads?
Are you dressed less formal than a realturd?
I was thinking of using an Attorney & Escrow firm, and since we’re paying cash, I thought that would get homeowner’s attention and interest.
Any feedback would be appreciated.
I was thinking of using an Attorney & Escrow firm, and since we’re paying cash, I thought that would get homeowner’s attention and interest.
Any feedback would be appreciated.”
Good idea. I think you are in the same general area I am in Eastern Ventura County
Lots of older folks here might be willing to sell without the hassel of a realtor and the home inspection shakedown etc. Still get a home inspection though
TO is on the edge of the city and lots of city types like the make offer then ask for 100K in home improvements.
Also getting sued later is not uncommon here.
cactus
Thanks for the feedback and encouragement. We are survivors of Mountain Meadows and Wood Ranch (former owners) renting in T O (you remembered), and really don’t want starkitecture again.
The seller could pocket more dough, and we’ll get a better deal. We really want to build a one-story Craftsman (wrap around porch cutie) but the collusion (builders/planners/etc…)in these parts is unreal. Yikes!
By Ca Law, I have to disclose my license, and that may be a caveat for some sellers, thinking I’m shifty.
Not sure about where you are, but in NYS I have a friend who is an attorney. Because of that he can also act as a real estate agent and used to do that part time during the party…
So if you engage one I’d clarify if he expects a RE commission.
“Do people perceive you as desperate?”
I don’t think so, although the first time I flyered (spring 2010) the only response I got was from a couple selling a $425k 3000+ sq. ft. home with a swimming pool. That was very discouraging. They eventually sold and that comp (not sure what they got, but probably around $400k) has been messing up my chances of getting a modest home near campus at a moderate price.
A few months after the second time I flyered, I heard back from the sellers that wanted $219k for the 2100 sq. ft. 4BR/2.5BA. Practically the same day, an elderly couple put a FSBO sign up for their 2BR+office/2BA for the next street over. I walk in that neighborhood a lot, so I see the FSBO signs within a day or two.
“Have homeowners been giving you leads?”
Not really, but my husband has a colleague in the neighborhood and I have a couple of househunting buddies in my current neighborhood (it’s a few blocks away), and we exchange a lot of information. (You guys would love some of my neighbors. One of the couples offered 50% off on this $250k house in one of the poshest neighborhoods in town. They didn’t get it, but the silly thing is still for sale.) My impression is that the neighborhood near campus that I’m interested in has a lot of original owners who built in the 1970s and 1980s and it will probably be turning over over the next few years.
I love my current neighborhood (also near campus), but the college is going to be bulldozing it over the next few years to build something BIG. C’est la vie.
“Are you dressed less formal than a realturd?”
Definitely dressed less formally.
If we buy without a realtor, we’ll get an inspector (or two or three) and a lawyer.
Amy P,
Thanks for the “”thinking differently” adventures and your opinion . You’re a doll for answering my questions. I figure paying an Attorney their fee (no commission unless he has a dual Broker/Law License(s) ) I would put the seller at ease and protect ourselves.
I think you’re pretty swell being so pro-active. I started to canvas a neighbor I was drooling over, and came across needy people, so it slowed me down. Anyone that was home feed me lots of neighborhood information, along with all their troubles. I think I’ll try it again. (I usually apply my hard head to my soft heart, but sometimes…) Thanks for the ideas, experiences, and so forth. I’ll cross my toes along with my fingers for you. You are tapping into my spunk.
Aren’t property taxes in Texas about 2% to 3% of the assessed value of the house? Taxes on a $200K house would be $4K to $6K a year. That’s somewhere between $333 and $500 A MONTH. Now add $$ for maintenance, repair and appliance replacement. On an older house a minimum safe amount would be another $200 a month. Termite control? Lawn maintenance? So that’s $800 a month before you pay the first dollar of principal and interest.
Have you really done the rent vs. buy analysis?
You’re right, the Texas property taxes are ferocious, so we’re kind of lucky that we didn’t get the house that we offered $165k for (although on the plus side, we wouldn’t need to get a second car, pay for insurance, maintenance, etc.). I think the taxes on that house are more like $300 a month (it’s assessed at $154k).
You forgot “seasonal roach spraying” on your list of expenses.
Termites are not a big issue in a lot of places in Texas. They begin to die at 120F.
Turn your AC off in August when it is 108F and you can reach 120F pretty quickly.
Concrete slab foundations also stymy termites.
Solution to bed-bug problem: Load up the U-haul. Drive you $hit to Texas in August. Haul it back.
Termites also don’t like extreme cold. Winter in Idaho generally controls them.
WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) — U.S. home prices fell in September, and the annual rate of appreciation has slowed for the fourth consecutive month, according to closely followed data released Tuesday.
Home prices fell 0.7% in September compared with August in 20 major U.S. cities, according to the Case-Shiller home price index released Tuesday by Standard & Poor’s.
Prices have moved up 0.6% in the past year, down from 1.7% in August.
Prices fell in 18 of the 20 metropolitan areas tracked by Case-Shiller in September compared with August. This is worse than August when 15 metropolitan areas were down.
A one-month decline of 0.7% occurs at an annualized rate of
((1-0.007)^12-1)*100 = -8.1%.
Dumb question of the day:
Why would anyone in their right mind buy a home now, when prices are dropping again at about an 8 percent annual rate, with no further plunge protection measures on the horizon in sight? Wouldn’t that be, like, irrational?
for the mortgage deduction otherwise you are over paying in taxes…
Well volume is still falling isn’t it?
All the data I’m seeing around here shows sales volume fell sharper and deeper in the fall of 2010 than in the fall of 2008. The price data is only now just beginning to catch up - this is just the start of the next leg down.
Got screwed on my $16k house deal. While in offer/couter-offer negotions with the ‘owner’ (lender), a flurry of suspicious bids came in late sunday night with a higher-than-asking-price bid being accepted. I am keeping the powder dry in anticipation of a flood of sub-$20k houses coming on the market in the next few years. Still far from the bottom.
What area are you in?
New Smyrna Beach, FL 32168 - kinda northern east coast FL
Off topic but a reason I like living in suburban Boise. This happened a couple of blocks from my house.
When numerous calls came in to Ada County dispatchers Monday morning about two loose horses walking in and out of traffic on Cloverdale Road, it was Teall who was able to figure out how to get them off the busy road and into a nearby pasture.
The answer? A bucket of oats and a bridle Teall keeps in the back of his patrol car for just such a situation….
Teall, who has been a deputy with Ada County for 12 years, was told by a veteran officer when he started it was a good idea to keep oats in the car just in case he needed to get a horse off the road.
http://www.idahostatesman.com/2010/11/29/1436281/two-horses-loose-on-cloverdale.html
What do you do for pigs or goats?
For piigs I think the cops just wave a bundle of Euros.
good one!
OT
Is that kicker still alive?
I feel bad for that kid.
From “The OC” 1990’s archives:
So, an Irvine Co. cow wanders onto the 405 freeway @ 2:20am,…x5 police officers “prevent disaster” by making the cow 94+ bullets heavier…
From the North Dallas files, in the 90’s, cattle truck over turns on 635. Two dozen cows never found.
Not to worry. They’re hiding out in Arizona. Where they’re considered to be undocumented cows.
Do undocumented cows have the same rights as cows born in the U.S. ? If not, and an undocumented cow gives birth to a calf in the U.S. is the calf a ctizen?
They have exactly the same rights.
To become dinner.
Dow 11k hats coming off today?
It’s time for the PPT to play a round of Texas hold’em:
Dow Jones Industrial Average
11,011 Change -41.85 -0.38%
Volume 62.10m
Nov 30, 2010 12:25 p.m.
Previous close 11,052
I’m waiting for…Dow 10,000!
Just remember that in the end all you get from stocks is dividends, and the dividend yield on the S&P 500 is less than 2.0%.
Anything else is a speculative price appreciation based on an expectation that retained “earnings” will lead to even more dividends…someday.
In theory money can also be used to buy back stock, increasing the value of the remaining shares. But we have a long history of this not happening, because stock buy-backs merely offset the new stock the executives issue to each other.
“I’m waiting for…Dow 10,000!”
Just don’t hold your breath while you wait…
I agree. Yellowstone could erupt and the market would shrug it off.
This father shouldn`t bond out. He will be safer in jail.
12-year-old boy and father charged with beating elderly man at Delray Beach Target
Delray Beach Police release surveillance video of the altercation in parking lot.
By Andrew Marra Palm Beach Post Staff Writer
Updated: 3:19 p.m. Monday, Nov. 29, 2010
Posted: 11:18 a.m. Friday, Nov. 26, 2010
DELRAY BEACH — A sweet-faced 12-year-old boy beat down an 83-year-old man Sunday in a Target parking lot in Delray Beach, with his father joining in to help finish the job, police say.
http://www.palmbeachpost.com/news/crime/12-year-old-boy-and-father-charged-with-
If this does not work it`s on the home page.
http://www.palmbeachpost.com/news/crime/12-year-old-boy-and-father-charged-with-1074513.html?cxntlid=cmg_cntnt_rss
linky no worky, sorry.
your other link works, thanks!
Most states have additional charges they can file for assaulting the elderly and handicapped.
Now they can really report on unemployment.
CBS Overhauls ‘The Early Show,’ Anchors Axed
by Associated Press
Nov 30th, 2010 | 10:51 AM |
BY: David Bauder
NEW YORK – CBS News is completely overhauling ‘The Early Show‘ broadcast team.
Co-anchors Harry Smith and Maggie Rodriguez are out, along with weather forecaster Dave Price. The news of the shuffle came Tuesday from a person with knowledge of the discussions who spoke on condition of anonymity because the person was not authorized to speak on personnel issues.
Who watches morning tv?
I always thought Harry Smith was a nice guy. But he and his wife are wealthy enough to retire, I guess.
Mexico auto sales crater:
http://www.eluniversal.com.mx/notas/726908.html
Mexican auto sales in 2010 are about 800K, vs. 1.8 million the year before. The article blames tight credit for the drop in sales.
Probably not helped by all the stolen US cars taken south of border.
Tell me about it!
Here’s a true story from the Arizona Slim File: A dear friend, now departed, shared the following anecdote from his days in law enforcement…
He was visiting Hermosillo, Sonora, which is one of northern Mexico’s largest cities. At the time, my friend was chief of adult probation for Pima County, Arizona.
My friend and his Sonoran host drove past a huge car lot. And it was the biggest car lot my friend had ever seen. He didn’t want to say anything to offend his host, who was a local government official, but my friend later told me that the lot was a holding place for stolen American cars.
These are the vehicles that I would expect the remittance crowds to buy. They can take them back to their small towns and villages and not worry too much about getting license plates for them, which is next to impossible if the car is not in national database. Its one of the few things you can’t bribe your way out of in Mexico (and was done to protect domestic assembly plants).
New cars are purchased by upper middle to upper class Mexicans.
Has there been an increase? FWIW, middle class Mexicans don’t drive stolen cars.
Probably not helped by all the stolen US cars taken south of the border either.
“The article blames tight credit for the drop in sales.”
I would blame the lack of money being sent back to Mexico from the U.S.
ISTR that foreign remittances to Mexico add up to something like $24 billion a year. And that such remittances are one of Mexico’s top sources of income. Right up there with oil exports and the drug trade.
I doubt that lower class Mexicans, even with their “remesas” from abroad were big players in the new car market down there.
Que sera, sera…
I think we’ve fallen about 30% here in the US in terms of # of vehicles, but I suspect much further in terms of dollars spent on cars and trucks.
So let me get this straight. Ireland is cutting jobs, pay and pensions and putting their kids into debt for generations in order to enrich billionaire bankers who engineered a situation where Ireland has to cut jobs, pay and pensions and put their kids in debt for generations?
You need to see the two vids in this article.
http://usawatchdog.com/ireland-is-not-iceland/
The question for Iceland and any other country is how much should regular people have to pay for the mistakes of reckless private banks? In Iceland’s case, the people voted down a deal this year that would have saddled each and every person with a debt of more than $16,000. The referendum received a “no” vote by more than 90% of the people. The rating agencies cut the country’s debt to “junk,” but now Iceland is in a stronger negotiating position with its creditors. Iceland is going to pay some of the debt off, but many experts are anticipating creditors will take big losses.
Ireland’s leaders, on the other hand, accepted the EU bailout and will now be forced to pay the full price for the mistakes of its banks for generations to come.
S 510 passed in the senate. Not a single democrat opposed it.
Erode the rights of individuals to enrich the Monsanto and likes. Thanks again.
Wait, did it pass unanimously or did some (gasp!) republicans oppose it?
What’s the problem? The bill has been cooking in congress for a couple of years and seems to me to be an attempt to deal with outbreaks of foodborne illnesses caused by big producers with lax standards.
From opencongress.org
OpenCongress Summary
“The bill would increase the FDA’s regulatory authority over the food production system in order to prevent contamination and food-borne illness outbreaks. It would give the FDA mandatory recall authority, require food producers to have qualifying plans in place for identifying and addressing safety risks, require importers to verify the safety of all imported foods, and more. Small farms and food facilities that do less than $500,000 in sales annually and sell most of their food locally would be exempt from most of the new regulations in the bill. For more information, follow the updates on our blog.”
Well, speaking as someone who recently told y’all about a bad reaction to some food at a local event, I’m for this. I’ll tell you, for a few minutes, I wasn’t sure if I was going to stay on my feet.
If Mr Market expects Spain to get bailed out, shouldn’t their sovereign bond yields be dropping?
Nov. 30, 2010, 6:43 a.m. EST
Contagion crisis intensifies; Spain yield soars
By William L. Watts, MarketWatch
LONDON (MarketWatch) — The euro zone’s sovereign-debt crisis intensified Tuesday, with yields on Spanish, Italian and other peripheral government bonds soaring in the wake of a weekend meeting of European Union finance ministers that failed to soothe fears of the potential for future defaults.
The yield on 10-year Spanish government bonds jumped to around 5.63%, strategists said, a day after surging to 5.43%.
The move sent the yield premium demanded by investors to hold 10-year Spanish debt over comparable German bunds to more than three full percentage points.
Bond yields move in the opposite direction of bond prices.
“Ireland’s bailout did nothing to ease the euro-zone debt crisis: it might have even made it worse,” said Steven Barrow, currency and fixed-income strategist at Standard Bank. “For now the market sees a pattern emerging and the next piece of the bailout puzzle seems to be Portugal, with Spain to follow after that.”
…
GDP up, Chicago PMI up, housing prices headed down again…
So much for the false theory that U.S. economic recovery will be impossible without a housing sector or even a financial sector recovery. It’s time to shut down the REIC’s feeding tubes once and for all, before the U.S. economy gets shackled to housing once again.
MarketWatch First Take
Nov. 30, 2010, 11:38 a.m. EST
Testing the limits of an economy without housing
Commentary: U.S. economy, for now, has unshackled itself from housing
WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) — The housing market may have dragged the U.S. economy into recession. But increasingly, the U.S. economy seems to be gathering strength even as the housing market, at best, continues to limp along.
That dichotomy was seen in the data released Tuesday: house prices falling in September (more timely but volatile data suggest the same thing), and yet U.S. consumer confidence hit the highest since June, and a Chicago-area manufacturing gauge reached its top level since April. See story on housing. See story on consumer confidence. See story on Chicago PMI.
One can always poke holes in a single month’s data, but Tuesday’s releases are broadly reflective of what we have seen for a few months now.
…
The shrills on cnbc are talking up the great retail sales.I dont know where they find some of the losers that come on and pump stocks.
Do you have to have double d’s to get a bonus at cnbc?
MarketWatch News Break
Nov. 30, 2010, 12:07 p.m. EST
Newport: Home prices not even close to bottom
In light of the latest S&P/Case-Shiller report on home prices, economist Patrick Newport of IHS Global Insight expects prices to fall another 5 to 10 percent before things get better. And it’s time to go to the mall - to look for a job.
Credit card use is on the decline, as millions of Americans cut up their plastic or get cut off by their credit card companies.
In the past year, more than eight million consumers have stopped using credit cards, according to TransUnion, a Chicago-based credit researcher. That means 78 million U.S. consumers do not have credit cards, compared to 70 million last year.
The company said the decline is partly due to “charge-offs in the higher risk segments” and partly because of “more conservative spending in the low-risk segments.”
Gerri Detweiler of Credit.com said it is “unprecedented” for consumers to “abandon” their credit cards. “I’ve been covering this since 1987 and I don’t recall numbers like that ever going down,” she said. “They’ve always gone up.”
Detweiler said the recession is a major factor. “When people are confident about their financial situation and the economy, they feel more confident about using credit,” she said. “When they’re scared or nervous about their own economic situation, or the economy in general, then they’re more likely to buckle down and avoid debt altogether.”
In other signs that consumers are casting off credit, TransUnion said the average U.S. credit card debt fell more than 11% over the past year to $4,964 in the third quarter. In that same time, delinquencies declined by nearly 25%.
Certainly at odds with other MSM reports. Velocity of money continues to decline.
The company said the decline is partly due to “charge-offs in the higher risk segments” and partly because of “more conservative spending in the low-risk segments.”
Long term credit card debt has been securitized into bonds, and the fed has been buying them.
Upper middle-class credit card debt in high cost areas like Miami and San Diego is a closely guarded secret; the general public wouldn’t be able to digest the truth. Forbes had a piece some time ago regarding credit cards, but the extreme data were smoothed using 50 state averages.
Unemployment extension unlikely; jobless file for last checks
cnnmoney
Although the deadline to file for extended unemployment insurance is officially Nov. 30, many jobless have already filed their last claim for benefits.
And since lawmakers aren’t likely to extend the deadline anytime soon, many more unemployed Americans will run out of their extended federal benefits in coming weeks. About 2 million people are expected to stop receiving checks in December.
State unemployment agencies are very concerned about the impending end to these extended jobless payments, which they say people depend on to cover their rent and buy food.
“It’s a critical safety net program,” said Nancy Dunphy, New York State’s deputy commissioner of labor for employment security. “This is the worst time of year to be running out of benefits.”
“This is the worst time of year to be running out of benefits.”
Why, because the retailers need to sell a shitload of flatscreens?
She is from New York State. It can get cold in December.
I get the feeling that lots of until now unsympathetic members of the middle class are about to find out about the reality of welfare benefits for the poor. I hope they will be expected to work for their benefits.
Then again, a reasonable compromise between those who believe the long-term unemployed are lollygagging and those who believe they are structurally employed is to extend the existing benefits, but with a workfare requirement.
Get ready for a rise in crime.
I hope you’ve all hired Xe security.
I hired a Kimber 1911 SS Gold Match .45 and a box of Federal HydraShoks.
This is not going to end well.
Crime has been steadily rising in my city. All types. Now it’s going to get worse.
I haven’t run out of hand lotion yet; the same bottle that was sitting on my desk back in 2006 is still in plain view, and at least half full.
How about youse guys? Is your lotion supply holding up?
Europe Debt Fears Hit More Secure Countries
Paul White/Associated Press
The Madrid stock exchange on Tuesday. Investors sold off government bonds from Spain, Portugal and Italy amid concerns about Europe’s debt crisis.
By LANDON THOMAS Jr.
Published: November 30, 2010
LONDON — Fears among European bondholders spread Tuesday from the weakest members of the euro zone to other countries, including Italy and Belgium, spurring a stepped-up search for a solution to a crisis that is increasingly putting political as well as financial strain on Europe’s decade-old monetary union.
Reflecting those worries, the euro slipped to $1.3008 at midafternoon in the United States from $1.3125 late Monday. As recently as Nov. 5, the euro traded above $1.40.
Despite the commitment of 200 billion euros, or $260 billion, in bailout funds to Europe’s two most stricken nations — Greece and Ireland — institutional investors were unimpressed with the rescue effort this weekend of Ireland and continued to sell bond holdings in the weaker euro-zone economies.
But what is worse for the European Union and an increasingly stretched International Monetary Fund is that investors have begun to disgorge some of their positions in Belgium, Italy and even Germany.
Even as the yields on the 10-year bonds of Greece, Ireland, Portugal and Spain ended trading Tuesday off their highs for the day, attention in Brussels turned to the rise on Italian sovereign debt to 4.64 percent, of Belgian bonds to 3.97 percent and the recent increase of German bonds, the European benchmark, which at 2.67 percent were down from Monday but well above the 2.1 percent of last summer. Rising yields reflect increased risk in the eyes of investors as well as inflationary expectations.
…
I believe the Euro is on its last legs. Iceland I’ve heard is doing pretty good.
“I believe the Euro is on its last legs.”
Rumors of its untimely death are greatly exaggerated (similar to rumors of the dollar’s death that keep circulating).
My hunch is that this will prove to have been a good time to invest in Euro-denominated bonds, when viewed through the lens of the rear-view mirror.
Clipped from the 5Min Forecast…
~ Meanwhile, as Uncle Sam makes symbolic gestures toward deficit reduction, it imposes huge new costs on local governments. Like new street signs.
Seriously. The new edition of the federal Manual on Uniform Traffic Control Devices — an 800-page tome — instructs local governments to…
Increase the lettering on street signs from 4 inches to 6 on all roads with speed limits above 25 miles an hour… by January 2012
Install signs with reflective lettering better seen at night… by January 2018
And whenever a sign is replaced, it must be in upper- and lowercase… immediately.
Milwaukee will have to spend $2 million to make this happen — double the city’s annual traffic control budget. Rural Dinwiddie County, Va., will spend $10 for every man, woman and child.
Something to keep in mind when you write your next property tax check…
nd whenever a sign is replaced, it must be in upper- and lowercase… immediately.
To which I say: What took them so long?
Reason for my question: I have in my library a book called Type & Layout. It’s by an Australian researcher named Colin Wheildon. If you’re in the design field, it’s considered to be a must-have book.
Among other things, his research showed that upper and lowercase lettering led to much higher reader comprehension than all caps lettering. I might add that Wheildon did this research about 20 years ago.
One of the most common sense things I ever saw with street raod signs was when I mover here.
The county has signs 1/4 mile away from the major intersections, telling you the cross road you are approaching. No need to slow down to 10mph in a 55 mph zone, so you can read the little street sign at the intersection.
City dwellers may not think this is a big deal, but I’ve almost bought the farm more than a couple of times coming up behind cars that have locked up the brakes at highway speeds, because they didn’t want to miss their turn.
“but I’ve almost bought the farm more than a couple of times coming up behind cars that have locked up the brakes at highway speeds, because they didn’t want to miss their turn.”
Dito! It is AMAZING that some people think if they miss a turn or an exit there is no way they would ever be able to get back where they are going by using the next exit or next intersection to turn around. And Damn the lives of anyone who might be in the way of them making that turn.
Like many things, people only worry about the immediate problem, and don’t think a couple of steps ahead and consider some of the negative outcomes their solution may have.
Like left lane squatters. To me it is just common courtesy to yield to overtaking traffic when it comes up behind you. You evidently don’t see lane squatting in Germany, because the overtaking traffic could be doing 150mph. The cops over there will actually write you a ticket if you dont GTFOO the way of faster traffic.
Not in the Land of the Big PX. Here, we have a percentage of the population that thinks it’s their God Given right to drive 5 under the limit in the left lane (while yakking on the phone…..or texting……or reading the newspaper…..or eating a salad while steering the car with one pinkie), and screw you if you are in a hurry, you should have left sooner to begin with.
(Note to self…….restart project to develop EMP device to fry the electronics of any car squatting in the left lane of traffic).
wmbz
Are the floors done yet? If so, how are the knees?
One to go, had to stop for a couple of weeks, had to go generate some income. Anyway hope to be done by Christmas, knees are hanging in there!
About damn time they did this.
Yeah, its not your money.
The more I read about Ireland the more I think we will see riots there when all is said and done.
The bailout is just another loan at 5.8 %. The thinking is that this is not going to fix the problem just delay it. The real kicker is that they pull in 17.5 billion of pension money to bail out the banks. I just don’t know why they don’t look across the pond to Iceland who told the banks to drop dead. Of course by the time the pensions collapse everyone involved in this theft will be gone.
The banksters talked the Irish government to bail out the banks at 100%. But my recollection is that when this first started, the banksters said they only needed a much smaller amount, so it didn’t seem like it was going to be as big of a problem.
Then they came back later and said they needed more, and the government agreed to the larger number. IIRC, this happened one more time after that..
This kind of reminds me of someone who has lost a lot of money at a casino, but keeps going back in hopes of winning back. The government was in an uncomfortable spot when the banksters came back and asked for more - if they said no, the amounts that they had given before would be gone for good.
I suppose there could be riots, but I think it likely that there will also be political unrest. I suspect there might be a movement to default on the debts and effectively flip the bird to the German bankers. There would clearly be blowback from that as well, but from the point of view of the people in Ireland, they might see that they have little to lose.
Can i get food stamps if I am income poor, but asset rich?
I don’t think so. Of course that won’t deter cheaters.
Why not sell some assets and use the income to buy some food?
not that desperate, just wondering if the system is flawed. Besides Taco Tuesday was today!! 3 carnitas tacos for $3!!!
Looks like we will all have to purchase cable now
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - U.S. telecommunications regulators proposed freeing up more airwaves for wireless services to meet the expanding use of handheld devices.
The Federal Communications Commission voted unanimously on Tuesday to seek public comment on the proposals that include the use of some broadcast television airwaves for wireless devices.
“The explosive growth of mobile communications threatens to outpace the infrastructure on which it relies,” FCC Chairman Julius Genachowski told an FCC open meeting.
The FCC is looking to entice broadcasters to give up some of their airwaves so that consumers can better download data on smart phones like Research in Motion Ltd’s BlackBerry and Apple Inc’s iPhone and other wireless devices.
4G is the future.
Wireless data faster than cable. Rides on the old VHF/UHF spectrum.
Full national coverage with 5 years. Already in all major cities.
Cheaper than cable.
I’ve been using Clearwire (3G) and now Clear (4G) for four years now here in Boise. Sometimes during blizzard conditions the transponders ice up and I lose service, but it’s normally very reliable. AND I don’t have to deal with either my local phone company or my local cable company.
The main point of moving broadcast OTA television from analog NTSC over to digital ATSC was to free up a lot of bandwidth since ATSC is so much more efficient. You can get maybe 3 standard def plus one high def stations in the same bandwidth consumed by a single analog standard def station.
This goes on and on and on and on…
European Contagion Spreads to Region’s Core as Belgian Bond Yields Surge
By Simone Meier and John Martens - Nov 30, 2010 4:01 PM PT
Europe’s sovereign crisis is spreading to the heart of the 16-nation bloc as investors question Belgium’s ability to cut the euro region’s third- highest debt load, overshadowing its economic performance.
The extra yield investors demand to hold Belgian 10-year bonds instead of benchmark German bunds of similar maturity widened to 139 basis points at 5.10 p.m. yesterday in Brussels, the most since at least 1993. The cost of insuring Belgian government bonds rose to a record for a second day, according to CMA prices of credit-default swaps.
The European Union’s 85 billion-euro ($111 billion) rescue package for Ireland has failed to quell market turmoil as investors shift their focus from peripheral states to countries such as Belgium, whose capital is home to the EU’s political institutions. While the country’s economy has been among the region’s growth drivers this year, inconclusive elections left it without a government, raising concerns on its budget outlook.
“Belgium has moved to the foreground as investors ask themselves ‘who’s next?’ to ask for help,” said Carsten Brzeski, an economist at ING Groep NV in Brussels and a former European Commission official. “While there’s little reason for concern based on economic fundamentals, the country’s debt level and political uncertainty added to speculation. Spreads are already at stress levels.”
…
Millions of Americans face loss of unemployment benefits
By Dana Hull and Patrick May
Mercury News
Posted: 11/30/2010 05:25:56 PM PST
Updated: 11/30/2010 05:43:38 PM PST
The U.S. Senate on Tuesday failed to meet a deadline to extend federal unemployment benefits, threatening half a million Californians with the prospect of losing their benefits by the end of December.
An estimated 454,000 California job seekers are among about 2 million nationwide who will be cut off from weekly unemployment benefits by the end of the year if the federal Emergency Unemployment Compensation program is allowed to lapse.
California’s 12.4 percent unemployment rate is the third-highest in the nation, after Nevada and Michigan, and the federal benefits have been a lifeline for long-term unemployed workers struggling to pay for basic expenses. In California, the average unemployment check is $297 a week.
“People are squeaking by. They’ve lost their homes and moved in with relatives,” said Maurice Emsellem, policy co-director of the National Employment Law Project, one of several advocacy groups urging Congress to extend the benefits. “This program is not just helping unemployed workers — it’s helping the economy. People spend their checks on food and gas and basic expenses. Pulling the plug on the benefits will be a huge shock to the national economy.”
…
52*$297 = (50+2)*($300-$3) = $15,000 + $600 - $150 - $6 = $15,444 –
certainly much better than zilch.
“454,000 California job seekers are among about 2 million nationwide”
That means that about 22.7% (100%*454,000/2,000,000)of those about to be cut off are Californians. This is big, as California only represents about 12.3% of the U.S. population (100%*37,000,000/300,000,000).
Merry Christmas, California, from your newly elected Republican Congressmen!
Yeah…California’s problems stem from the newly elected Republican Congressmen.
BWAAAHAHAHAHAHAHA!
I never suggested the California economic situation is the Republicans’ fault. Just because we just finished like a whole decade with a Republican Terminator as our governor, doesn’t mean the Republicans are to blame.
I only meant to suggest that heartless Republicans are the type of people who would wait until right around Christmas Time to cut off an unemployed man’s benefits, just to see his children go without Christmas.
Catch-22, mortgage-service industry edition:
- Those who are current on their payments don’t qualify for loan modifications.
- Those who get behind on their payments do qualify to be foreclosed.
Senate panel’s focus: Foreclosures resulting from mortgage servicers’ advice
By Ariana Eunjung Cha and Zachary A. Goldfarb
Washington Post Staff Writers
Tuesday, November 30, 2010; 8:39 PM
…
Many borrowers, foreseeing financial difficulty ahead, were told by their mortgage servicers to miss payments in order to get a loan modification. But after doing so, homeowners were served foreclosure papers instead of getting a modification, the advocates say.
…
Here’s to hoping for a small-enough-to-fail, less-systemically-risky banking industry going forward!
Days of rapid growth and focus on trading are over for banks, analysts say
By Jia Lynn Yang
Washington Post Staff Writer
Monday, November 29, 2010; 7:22 PM
Two years after benefiting from an extraordinary government bailout, banks are hitting a wall.
…large banks are set to deliver banner profits again this year, even as their revenues drop. Much of the latest earnings, however, were fueled by short-term measures that temporarily boosted banks’ bottom lines, such as reducing the amount of money they are holding to protect themselves against losses from loans.
But the long-term outlook is murkier. Analysts say it will be hard for these banks to replicate the kind of sustained, gangbusters growth they’ve enjoyed in recent years.
The industry is bracing for a slew of new rules that could force them to alter the way they make money. The regulations are designed to limit risky trading and curb certain fees charged to consumers - the exact activities that banks have leaned on to deliver impressive numbers quarter after quarter.
“The regulations in play right now are fundamentally redefining the business models of the nation’s banks,” said Karen Shaw Petrou, managing partner of the research firm Federal Financial Analytics.
Signs of the slowdown are already emerging.
At J.P. Morgan Chase, net revenue slipped 15 percent in the most recent quarter compared with last year. Citigroup’s revenues fell 10 percent, and Goldman Sachs’s was down 28 percent. At Morgan Stanley, net revenues dropped 20 percent, while Bank of America’s revenues were essentially flat, growing 2 percent in the latest quarter.
Commercial banks, such as Bank of America, have traditionally relied on lending to make money. But that model is also running into trouble as businesses and consumers shed debt amid the economic slowdown.
…
It’s SOL time for speculators who rushed in to snap up foreclosure homes before prices bottomed out. If you got on a tour bus to research your investing opportunities, that is a major hint that you are about to lose money.
Home prices falling faster in most metro areas
NEW YORK (AP) — Millions of foreclosures and weak demand from buyers are forcing home prices down in most major U.S. cities.
Prices are falling even in places like San Francisco and San Diego, which had posted strong increases just a few months ago. Analysts say many markets won’t improve until they see fewer foreclosures and more job gains.
A report Tuesday underscored the weakness. Home prices declined in 18 of the 20 cities, according to the S&P/Case-Shiller 20-city index. Prices fell 0.7 percent in September from August, marking the second straight monthly drop.
The biggest weight on prices going forward is foreclosures, which sell at steep discounts and lower nearby property values.
Just because it’s Dutch auction season for banks with REO isn’t stopping determined investors from getting on the foreclosure bus to research their next hot investment opportunities. You’d think people would be more cautious about picking up lead nickels in front of speeding steamrollers!
Foreclosure rate still high
Lane County lenders filed papers on 45 percent more in October than in the same month last year
By Diane Dietz
The Register-Guard
Published: Thursday, Nov 11, 2010 05:01AM
Lenders filed foreclosure papers on 45 percent more houses in Lane County in October than in the same month in 2009, RealtyTrac announced Wednesday.
This comes as no surprise to real estate brokers who specialize in buying or selling distressed houses locally.
“All I know is it keeps us hopping,” said broker Joyce Leavitt of Century 21 Westover Realty.
Leavitt’s company in Springfield has 90 foreclosures on its books — in process, listed or pending. John L. Scott Real Estate in Eugene has 80, broker Elliott Braaten said.
A number of major lenders across the country had suspended foreclosures in October. Although it is unclear to what extent this happened in Oregon, foreclosure activity was down 15 percent in Lane County last month compared with September.
But the foreclosure numbers are still surging compared with 2009 because lenders are becoming less willing to accept short sales or modifications proposed by troubled borrowers, broker Barbara Thomas of Re/Max Integrity said.
“The banks now are more quick to go ahead and proceed with a foreclosure than to do, for them, the harder thing,” she said. “There’s more push back coming.”
The glut of foreclosed houses in the local marketplace means that their prices are coming down somewhat, local foreclosure practitioners say.
Banks adopt a time schedule for price reductions for unsold foreclosed properties, Leavitt said. Each has its own way of doing business.
“Some of them will go down $5,000 or $10,000 every 30 days. Sometimes more than that. Others will hold — and then all of a sudden make a big jump (down). It just depends on the bank,” she said.
…
Distressed properties, foreclosure auctions and foreclosure bus tours have marked communities in Florida, Ohio, Nevada and California for years.
Oregon has not escaped, said Tara Nagelhout, principal broker at Emerald Valley Real Estate.
“It took two years for our little bubble to burst. In (Los Angeles) it already happened. It’s just weird,” she said.
JUST DROP THE PRICE!!! NO CLEVERNESS IS NEEDED.
How to sell a million-dollar house
With many high-price homes and too few buyers, agents forced to get more clever
Posted: November 28, 2010 - 12:00am
By MARCIA LANE
In today’s soft housing market, real estate can be a hard sale, especially since conventional sellers are competing with foreclosures and short sells.
That applies even in the multi-million dollar market.
“No segment of the market is protected from foreclosures. It doesn’t matter whether it’s a $100,000 or $3 million house, your competition is distressed properties, either foreclosures or short sales,” real estate expert Jim Sherry said.
Sherry should know. Not only is he a national consultant on real estate, he has a million-dollar house in Vilano Beach that he’s trying to sell. Two weeks ago, he lowered the price to $1.35 million, down $450,000 from the week before.
To make sales happen, homeowners and their agents have to come up with innovations and new incentives.
“Times are tough right now,” said Michael Paull, leasing agent with The Premier Marketing Group at RE/MAX Specialists. “You’re having to offer more incentives than ever before.”
…
I think we may be close to peak cleverness.
Heh heh. Sooooo… Mr. Randy Capitalist… you want to pack up your marbles and drill for water in Galt’s Gulch instead? Well I guess not. Take a look at what happens when a gooberment doesn’t roll over and piss themselves when a corporation issues an ultimatum about packing up for a better deal elsewhere. Other companies were standing ready to take their place! Imagine that! Competition: it’s not just for the peons anymore! At least not in Fiji.
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/as_fiji_fiji_water;_ylt=A0LEaorbwfVM3E8BMESs0NUE;_ylu=X3oDMTNubGNycDFpBGFzc2V0A2FwLzIwMTAxMjAxL2FzX2ZpamlfZmlqaV93YXRlcgRjY29kZQNtb3N0cG9wdWxhcgRjcG9zAzEwBHBvcwM3BHB0A2hvbWVfY29rZQRzZWMDeW5faGVhZGxpbmVfbGlzdARzbGsDZmlqaXdhdGVycmV2
I don’t know why people buy the stuff anyway. Talk about a freak’n elective purchase!
This is gonna be good! I love the sound of banksters whistling as they stroll past the graveyard.
* BUSINESS
* DECEMBER 1, 2010
Bank’s Stock Declines on WikiLeaks Anticipation
By DAN FITZPATRICK
Bank of America Corp.’s stock dropped more than 3% Tuesday on speculation that website WikiLeaks would soon release internal documents.
The Charlotte, N.C., lender, the nation’s largest bank as measured by assets. has been trying to determine for more than a year whether any documents were leaked from inside the bank, said people familiar with the situation. WikiLeaks founder Julian Assange asserted in an October 2009 Computerworld magazine interview that he had the 5GB computer hard drive of a Bank of America executive.
“We have no evidence that supports this assertion,” a bank spokesman said Tuesday. “We are unaware of any new claims by WikiLeaks that pertain specifically to Bank of America.”
…
David Weidner’s Writing on the Wall
Nov. 30, 2010, 12:01 a.m. EST
10 questions we should be asking the banks
Commentary: Here’s a bank stress test that will work
…
1. When assessing your balance sheet, which of the following best describes your initial reaction?
a) You’re proud of your bank’s strong capital position, which has a better-than-required Tier-1 capital ratio, ample reserves and is liquid.
b) You’re confident that if the economy booms with an annual GDP increase of 10% to 15%, you can eke by.
c) More holes than an episode of CSI Miami.
d) You feel confident the Fed can handle any potential losses.
2) Should the economy suffer a double dip, what steps would you be willing to take to ensure solvency?
a) Raising interest rates to reward depositors, working with borrowers to keep them current, salary and compensation freezes, stockpiling profits to bolster reserves.
b) Offer free checking for $199 a year. Raise ATM surcharges to $50 and all credit-card rates to 29.99%.
c) Fire my CFO.
d) Tim Geithner is on speed dial.
3) When considering making a loan to a consumer, which of the following is your most important criteria for making a decision?
a) Whether they can pay it back.
b) Whether the government will buy it.
c) My commission.
d) What decision?
4) Which of the following is considered “best practice” for underwriting a mortgage-backed security?
a) Due diligence on the underlying loans and ample disclosure.
b) Making timely payments to Moody’s Investors Service and Standard & Poor’s.
c) Shovel in, shovel out.
d) Double-checking John Paulson’s list against ours.
5) How would you describe your current exposure to other financial institutions via counter-party arrangements, credit-default swaps and other relationships that may pose systemic risk?
a) Minimal exposure, fully hedged and depositors not at risk.
b) Don’t ask, don’t tell.
c) It’s complicated.
d) It doesn’t matter because the banks are in great shape.
6) When a borrower calls you because they’ve lost income and are struggling to make mortgage payments, what’s the bank’s first step?
a) Work with the borrower to reach a payment level that keeps them in the house.
b) Cancel their credit cards and nuke their credit rating.
c) Surprise.
d) Ask how “party ready” the house is.
7) When subpoenaed by a Congressional committee about your bank’s practices, how do you respond?
a) With full cooperation and eagerness to show off the conservative and ethical culture of your bank.
b) Lawyer up!
c) Ask the committee if they want the “on-balance sheet” or “off balance sheet” version.
d) Say ”Don’t you work for me?”
8 ) In the event that your bank suffers trading losses that result in the bank reporting a loss for the quarter, what is your response?
a) Apologize, institute risk limits and shrink compensation pools to adjust for investor losses.
b) Stuff happens.
c) Award the trading team a bonus to keep them from fleeing to a hedge fund.
d) Award yourself a bonus.
9) John and Mary are bank tellers. This month John sold $100,000 of investments in the bank-run emerging market funds to customers. Mary sold $100,000 in certificates of deposits. Who has done the better job?
a) Both have, as long as the investments’ risks and terms were fully explained and appropriate to the customers’ financial goals.
b) John rocks.
c) How “hot” is Mary?
10) Which answer best explains your interest in raising dividends?
a) Our solid financial performance, balance sheet and risk management are paying off.
b) No other reason to buy the stock.
c) We haven’t paid a regulatory fine in three months.
d) We’re paid in stock.
I hereby attest, under penalty of perjury, that my answers are truthful as my statements made in 2008 about the solvency of my institution.
Robo-sign here –––.
The Irish Times - Wednesday, December 1, 2010
LENDING DOWN AS CREDIT DRIES UP FURTHER
Caroline Madden
THE FLOW of credit to businesses and households is continuing to dry up, while the rate of mortgage repayments has fallen.
The latest quarterly update from the Irish Banking Federation (IBF) shows that new mortgage lending plummeted by 40 per cent in the third quarter, with just 7,261 mortgages issued, compared to 12,189 in the same period a year earlier.
Meanwhile, new Central Bank statistics show that overall lending to Irish households declined by almost 5 per cent in October.
This follows a fall of 4.5 per cent in September.
…
Mercury News Staff Reports
Posted: 11/30/2010 02:44:36 PM PST
Updated: 11/30/2010 02:50:47 PM PST
…
Urban housing prices struggle
Housing prices in the nation’s urban areas are having a hard time finding traction, according to the Associated Press. Prices in metro areas are falling faster than other sectors of the market. San Francisco, Los Angeles and San Diego had been showing improvement but prices fell in September from August. The blame goes to high unemployment, tougher lending standards and a glut of foreclosures.
…
Is Housing in Trouble? Again?
By James Picerno|Nov 30, 2010, 7:49 PM|Author’s Website
Is the housing recovery losing steam? It’s harder to dismiss the possibility after reading today’s update of the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices. Nationally, U.S. housing prices fell 2.0% in this year’s third quarter over the previous three months. That’s a sharp deceleration from the 4.7% rise in this year’s second quarter.
Looking at national housing prices on a rolling annual basis doesn’t brighten the trend. As the chart below shows, U.S. home prices overall in September were 1.5% lower compared with 12 months ago. “While housing prices are still above their spring 2009 lows, the end of the tax incentives and still active foreclosures appear to be weighing down the market,” S&P advises in a press release.
…
Dallas-area home prices continue to decline
11:31 PM CST on Tuesday, November 30, 2010
By STEVE BROWN / The Dallas Morning News
stevebrown@dallasnews.com
A plunge in sales and rising inventories have pulled the rug out from under North Texas home prices.
September’s 2.6 percent price decline was the third straight month of year-over-year decreases in the Standard & Poor’s/Case-Shiller Home Price Index. It was also the largest drop since May 2009.
“The housing market remains shaky,” said D’Ann Petersen, a business economist for the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas. “Inventories of existing homes have risen in recent months, which can exert downward pressure on home prices.
“Buyers remain hesitant due to economic and policy uncertainties, and credit remains a problem for some would-be buyers.”
All of that adds up to softening home prices – a turnabout from an uptick in values earlier this year.
…
Home Prices in U.S. Will `Bounce Along the Bottom,’ Case Says: Tom Keene
By John Gittelsohn and Tom Keene - Nov 30, 2010 1:40 PM PT
…
‘Cultural Change’
Robert Shiller, the index’s other creator, said on the program that a “catastrophic drop in confidence” makes it unlikely demand for homes will recover soon. He declined to predict price changes.
“There’s been a cultural change,” said Shiller, a Yale University professor, citing a five-year decline in a confidence index by the National Association of Home Builders. “It goes beyond any short-run forecasts.”
Sales of existing homes, which make up more than 90 percent of the market, declined more than forecast in October amid foreclosure moratoriums and the absence of the tax credit, the National Association of Realtors reported last week. Sales fell in July to the slowest pace in a decade’s worth of record- keeping by the Chicago-based group.
Stocks Tumble on Housing Numbers
Nov. 30 2010 - 3:08 pm
By HEATHER STRUCK
The S&P/Case Shiller monthly home price index released Tuesday showed an overall 2% decline in house prices for the third quarter this year, following a 4.7% rise in the second quarter. The decline is marked by increasing drops in home prices in major cities like Chicago, Cleveland, Charlotte and Atlanta.
“There are less buyers out there,” said Leif Thomsen, CEO of Massachusetts-based Mortgage Master, which originated $5.5 billion in loans last year. “Unemployment is unchanged in the last year, and underwriting loans is the hardest it’s ever been.” This all contributes to the drop in the homeowner rate going from the high 60s, where it has been for a long time, to a percentage in the low 60s.
The housing market, weighed down by continued foreclosures and rising inventories, is 1.5% below prices one year ago, according to the index. 18 of the 20 metropolitan statistical areas that are measured by the S&P/Case Shiller index reported home price decreases for the quarter, although they are still above their low points from the spring of 2009. Las Vegas and Washington D.C. homes managed to keep above their already low levels in July.
“Another weak report; weaker than last month,” said chairman of the S&P Index Committee David M. Blitzer. “New construction is running at less than half the pace needed to meet normal demand, so a sustained recovery could be a ways off.”
…
So long as DC housing is going up, who cares about the rest of the country?
Falling again
Nov 30th 2010, 15:37 by R.A. | WASHINGTON
MOST of the news out of the American economy has been relatively good, of late, at least by comparison to the news we were getting over the summer. Consumer confidence is up. Third quarter GDP rose by more than originally estimated. There are even hints that the labour market may be close to a recovery speed sufficient to actually bring down the unemployment rate. Things are far from rosy, but they’re rosier than they’ve looked in some time.
Except where housing markets are concerned. Back in late spring, the expiration of the government’s housing tax credit and the erupting crisis in Europe dealt a double blow to homebuyer confidence. Prices, which had been leveling off, and in some cases rising again, sagged once more. That sag seems to have turned into a new, nationwide slump.
The latest Case-Shiller home price data, for the month of September, is a three-month moving average of homes sold in July, August, and September. The data shows a monthly decline across all markets, with the single exception of the Washington metropolitan area. The 20-city index was off 0.7% in September, after falling just 0.2% the prior month. Fully 15 of the measured markets are down over the past year.
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Housing prices declined sharply in September
November 30, 2010 12:56 PM
By Jenifer McKim
Boston-area home prices dipped in September by 1.3 percent from the previous month, more than what many other major cities in the U.S experienced at the time, according to the latest issue of the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Prices Indices that was released today.
Despite the one-month slip, Boston-area home prices are still higher than they were a year ago–though only a modest 0.4 percent. Nationwide home prices over the last year fell 1.5 percent, according to Case-Shiller.
The index measures home prices based on repeat sales of the same properties and is considered within the housing industry as the best measure of home values.
While housing prices in the Boston area have bounced around over the last two years, the 1.3 percent decline in September is big, said David M. Blitzer, chair of the Index Committee at Standard & Poor’s.
“This is a bad downward bounce,” he said. “From that you can’t tell what is going to happen next month. There is a lot of pessimism.”
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Region’s home prices continue to fall
Foreclosures, joblessness and rising inventory of homes continue to batter the real estate market.
By Kirsten Valle Pittman
Posted: Wednesday, Dec. 01, 2010
Charlotte-area home prices continued to fall in September, mirroring a trend seen in most major metropolitan areas, a closely watched index released Tuesday shows.
Prices in the metro area fell 1 percent from August, according to the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index. Home prices declined in 18 of the 20 market areas the index tracks, rising just slightly in the other two. And experts expect prices to drop further in the coming months as foreclosures and other economic woes continue to plague the market.
“Another weak report; weaker than last month,” said David Blitzer, chairman of the index committee at Standard & Poor’s. “The national economy is certainly the No. 1 issue for housing. Additionally, there is a large supply of houses on the market and further, hidden, supply due to delinquent mortgages, pending foreclosures or vacant homes. … A sustained recovery could be a ways off.”
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Denver sees steeper home price decline in latest Case-Shiller Index
Denver Business Journal - by Mark Harden
Date: Tuesday, November 30, 2010, 5:16pm MST
Home prices in the Denver area were down 1.6 percent in September from a year earlier, the third straight month that the metro area saw a year-over-year price decline, according to the latest S&P/Case-Shiller Home Prices Index, released Tuesday.
Each month from October 2009 through June 2010, the closely-watched Case-Shiller report from Standard & Poor’s showed year-over-year increases in Denver-home home prices. Then, July 2010 prices were down 0.1 from a year earlier, and August prices declined 1.2 percent from 2009.
The area’s prices also declined 1 percent in September from the previous month, following a 0.1 percent monthly decline in August and a 0.4 percent monthly drop in July.
Denver was one of 15 U.S. cities out of the 20 tracked in the Case-Shiller report to show a year-over-year price drop in September, and one of 18 to see a month-to-month decline.
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Seattle home prices fall again
Puget Sound Business Journal
Date: Tuesday, November 30, 2010, 11:31am PST
Seattle home prices fell 0.6 percent from August to September, which was a tiny bit better than the average of the 20 largest U.S. cities.
According to Standard & Poor’s/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices, the 20 largest cities saw a 0.7 percent decline from August to September. Every one of the top 20 cities except Washington, D.C., and Las Vegas reported a decline during that time.
“Overall, there are few, if any, good numbers in this month’s data,” said David Blitzer, chairman of the index committee at Standard and Poor’s, in a statement.
In the past year, Seattle’s home prices have fallen 2.6 percent, compared with a 0.6 percent gain in the 20 largest cities.
“There is a large supply of houses on the market and further, hidden, supply due to delinquent mortgages, pending foreclosures or vacant homes,” Blitzer added.
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ECONOMY
Home Prices Dive 2 Percent in Third Quarter
MARK RALSTON/AFP/Getty Images
Case-Shiller index gives little cause for housing optimism.
By Clifford Marks
Tuesday, November 30, 2010 | 10:16 a.m.
National home prices fell 2 percent during the third quarter and have dropped 1.5 percent for the year ending this September, according to a closely watched housing report released this morning.
The S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices were rife with grim news for the sector: a composite of home prices in 20 U.S. cities rose at its slowest rate in eight months; 15 of those 20 cities now register price decreases over the last year; and 18 of the 20 declined in September compared to August.
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Whiny Banks Call Fannie and Freddie Put Backs “Unfair”
Published: Tuesday, 30 Nov 2010 | 12:50 PM ET
By: Ash Bennington
A new Bloomberg article out today on the topic of the mortgage repurchase fiasco is a treasure trove of insight into the current state of affairs between Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac on the one hand and the big banks on the other. First, the big picture.
Here’s the upshot of the story: Banks are starting to push back against Fannie and Freddie on loan repurchases. According to the Bloomberg article, “Lenders say they are resisting buybacks because McLean, Virginia-based Freddie Mac and Washington- based Fannie Mae are unfairly second-guessing old appraisals, accusing originators of failing to verify income, or pinning failed loans on minor technical errors.”
Perhaps I’m missing something.
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“I’m Subprime Sam I am I am…”
Markets, Mortgage matters
Has the federal government gone subprime?
Posted by Scott Van Voorhis November 29, 2010 11:11 AM
Uncle Sam sure has a lot of explaining to do.
He’s spent years pumping untold billions into the housing market, only to see home prices and sales sink again.
Now he’s getting hit by critics on the right and now the left, who contend our wayward uncle, in his desperation to keep the real estate market from collapsing completely, has made the ultimate down market move.
He’s gone subprime, according to a growing number of critics on both sides of the political spectrum, replacing the high-cost mortgage dealers of old on the neighborhood stoop.
My guess is that readers of this blog are more familiar with the right’s critique of the federal government’s takeover of the mortgage market. In order to keep the mortgage market alive, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and the FHA let through a lot of questionable borrowers over the past two years, only to reap a whirlwind of bad loans.
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Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac give greenlight to foreclosures
By: Ethan C. Nobles 30 November 2010 34 views 2 Comments
To muddle the foreclosure issue just a bit further, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac told real estate agents last week to resume selling foreclosed properties.
Why’s that significant? Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac — the government sponsored enterprises (GSE) that have underwritten the majority of mortgage in the nation — had about 240,000 properties set for foreclosure at the end of September. It was about that time that Fannie and Freddie called for a moratorium on foreclosures due to concerns about the adequacy of court filings.
We’re talking about the so-called “robo-signing” controversy in which servicers allegedly signed affidavits either without prior knowledge of foreclosure cases or without a notaries present. To make matters worse, there were questions over whether mortgages were properly transferred from the originating banks to the servicers in the first place — if that’s true, servicers might have a problem establishing they had standing to bring foreclosure actions in some cases.
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I think I am beginning to detect a pattern in the Case-Shiller/S&P data; does anyone else?