Bits Bucket For December 16, 2010
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The Housing Bubble
Examining the home price boom and its effect on owners, lenders, regulators, realtors and the economy as a whole.
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Name:Ben Jones
Location:Northern Arizona, United States
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Home-builders pessimistic about housing market.
LOS ANGELES(AP) — U.S. homebuilders remain uneasy about the housing market’s prospects in the months ahead, discouraged by weak job growth and millions of foreclosures.
The National Association of Home Builders said Wednesday that its monthly reading of builders’ sentiment remained unchanged in December at 16.
While it remains the highest reading since June, any reading below 50 indicates negative sentiment about the market. The index hasn’t been above that point since April 2006.
“While it remains the highest reading since June, any reading below 50 indicates negative sentiment about the market. The index hasn’t been above that point since April 2006.”
Hasn’t bee positive since 2006?? (Builders were most optimistic right BEFORE the largest RE crash in US history) Really??
By this logic…. Sounds like the NAR Builders’ sentiment is a great CONTRA-INDICATOR for the RE Market..
Just sayin’
“While it remains the highest reading since June…”
You have to hand it to those AP writers, they could be on a crashing plane and still find the time to pen a good review of the in-flight meal.
When the wreckage is being lifted by a crane onto a truck the reporter would say the airliner was reaching the highest cruising altitude since the crash.
Don’t forget the ‘unexpectedly’ that would appear somewhere in the article.
What? We spent 7 years building twice as many houses as we needed, and now we have to build fewer than demographics say we should need?
That’s just not fair.
But obama needs to put people back to work.
However, if you’re a home BUYER, now’s the time, says this idiot.
http://articles.moneycentral.msn.com/Investing/FindHotStocks/why-it-is-safe-to-buy-homes-again-mirhaydari.aspx
MarketWatch News Break
Dec. 16, 2010, 9:16 a.m. EST
2010 foreclosures still on record-breaking track
November’s “robo-signing” investigations slowed foreclosure activity to its lowest level in nearly two years, but won’t be enough to prevent 2010 foreclosure filings from topping last year’s peak. “We will break records this year,” says Rick Sharga of RealtyTrac, “and unfortunately, it’s likely we’ll break those records again next year.”
I can get used to the month-to-month “lease” at this hotel. 30 inch flat screen, furnished, cable included, one-time wiFi fee of 5 bucks. The only values I have here are my iPad and cell phone.
I don’t need no RE.
Heard now the layoffs starting January 3 at my former client will number 29 in two months. It is over half the department from hence I came.
In this unstable job market, the last thing you want is to be tied to any city.
Some of those extended stay suites are pretty good values.
“In this unstable job market, the last thing you want is to be tied to any city.”
You really couldn’t find another job in LA?
I could not wait enough to find a high paying gig in LA. Took a pay cut to work in Tampa but ending up with more after expenses and taxes….
So that’s the way our country is headed. No one is blaming Bill for choosing his lifestyle, but Bill is now the metaphorical shepherd of the tragedy of the commons. He is the one increasing the flock. Sure, the first one to increase the flock [ that is, living alone in a hotel room], will enjoy the economic advantage of the spartan living, soon we will all have to live like migrants alone in a hotel room to keep up, and then just to get by.
As they said in The Incredibles: if everyone is special, then no one is special.
The % of middle class shrank to the single digits over the last 40 years. One-income families, albeit with one car, one house, one landline, one TV. But note the house was once in a stable area that was a genuine melting pot. Not a multicultural nightmare where a metalhead lives on one side of you, a cRap noise ghetto blaster is on your other side, and a registered sex offender lives in the house across the street.
I have no desire to put down roots if I have to look forward to that in a SFH neighborhood. May as well earn triple what the average Joe earns.
Tax package heads toward high stakes vote in House- AP
A massive tax package that would save millions of Americans thousands of dollars in higher taxes is headed for a vote in the House Thursday even as rebellious Democrats complain it is too generous to the wealthy.
There is going to come a day when the Chinese stop buying our debt, and then we will have our own austerity measures.
And it is coming soon.
The deficit reduction proposals were DOA, and both parties are racing to see who can increase the deficit faster than the other.
Bond market is already reacting. QE2 has been shown insufficient to keep rates down.
I just heard a Republican senator on CNBC talking about how we need a rewrite of the taxcode to favor capital formation. OMFG!!!!
We’ve been encouraging capital formation for 40 years, and all that capital is chasing too few promising investment oppertunities, and therefore has resulted in the creation of multiple price bubbles.
Is that REALLY what we need? More of what got us here? More “rich getting richer and poor getting poorer”? More too few people haveing too much money, and those too few people using it to inflate yet another bubble? More debt, more deficits, more erosion of the middle class?
Has this REALLY been working?
Perhaps… and I know this is just insanity… perhaps it is time to try something a little different. Perhaps it is time to think about reversing the trend of “rich getting richer and poor getting poorer” and start taking a pragmatic approach to the economy. WE NEED TO GET SOME MONEY INTO THE HANDS OF THE POOR AND MIDDLE CLASS instead of letting more and more of it accumulate in the hands of too few.
Here is a tape on what the Corporations would do to all the workers
of the World ,including Americans if they could .
John Pilger - THE NEW RULERS OF THE WORLD -
video.google.com/videoplay?docid=-3667764379758632511#docid=7932485454526581006
We’ve been encouraging capital formation for 40 years, and all that capital is chasing too few promising investment oppertunities, and therefore has resulted in the creation of multiple price bubbles.
Is that REALLY what we need?
REAL capital formation is where savers pool their money to invest into plant and equipment, innovation, start ups, exploration, etc.
Stuff that actually creates more wealth and jobs.
Banana, the rich, the only ones left with money, ARE investing. They are investing in financial “innovation” which is a crock. They are investing in Congresscritters. The only “stuff” based innovation they invest in, the type that creates jobs, is OVERSEAS. In other words, as I have said a MILLION times, the rich are taking the wealth of 300 million people and spreading it over a billion and a half. It’s great for people like you who “got yours,” but not for the citizens who are soon going to be moving into mud huts.
The middle class used to invest in America all the time, via 401K. Now they are lucky to keep up the health insurance.
We are already starting to see massive tent cities popping up all over America. I suppose I should invest in tent makers for the future?
The going rate for a days labor on the world market is somewhere around $3 - $5 a day. Get used to it America this is the price we all pay for cheap imports and off-shore labor.
I don’t often agree with you on much, 2banana, but you’ve definitely nailed it with the need to invest in PHYSICAL development in THIS country.
Not doing so over the last 30 years is the CORE reason we are in the mess we’re in.
“Go to a Walmart’s located near a poor area and take a look at what’s in people’s
shopping baskets.”
Combo, you better be careful looking into people’s shopping baskets at WalMart. You just might get reported to the DHS as a potential terrorist!
Better invest in GE. They got $48 billion from Obama and Bernanke, then moved their wind turbine manufacturing plant over to the ChiComs. Like that? How about Harley getting $16 billion from Obama then moving their manufacturing plant to India. Of course GE, who owns NBC and MSNBC will not say a discouraging word about Barry and the regime. I haven’t figured out Harley except we think that they have given millions to Barry and the Dems.Don’t try and spin this because you can’t.
Harley is actually exporting bikes to India. They are opening dealerships there.
“WE NEED TO GET SOME MONEY INTO THE HANDS OF THE POOR AND MIDDLE CLASS instead of letting more and more of it accumulate in the hands of the few.”
Money accumulates into “the hands of the few” because the poor and middle class who are broke are broke because they spend every dollar they can get their hands on.
Spend it on what, combo? Ask Elizabeth Warren. Hint: it’s not Applesbees and Starbucks. It’s housing, college, health insurance. Even those who were responsible are in this trap.
And really, retirement costs so much, I’m starting to think we SHOULD live it up now, while we have the money. Why scrimp now, if we’re all going to be poor anyway?
“Spend on what, combo?”
Spend on junk from China. Go to a Warmart’s located near a poor area and take a look at what’s in people’s
shopping baskets.
Go to any place that sells lottery tickets and hang around a bit and you’ll see where a lot of this money goes.
Plenty of prudent spenders who end up broke from job loss or medical expenses and soon inflation. Their salary will purchase less and less.
Almost forgot.
Plenty will end up broke because
Gov and employer lied about pension, Wall Street theft,
Money accumulates in the hands of the few because
1. The top 0.1% pay an effective tax rate 10% less than uppermiddle class americans.
2. The elite get bailed out when their investments go bad.
3. The elite use gov to steal from the tax payer.
4. The elite corner markets and destroy the benefits of capitalism.
I seldom see a poor person without cigarettes or a cell phone these days.
My cell phone costs $106 a year. Not saying that the people you see are doing the same. Just pointing out that having a cell phone doesn’t mean you are wasting a ton of money.
My cell phone costs $106 a year.
And what kind of cell phone would that be? At that price, and with the appropriate ergonomics for my hearing loss, I’d be tempted to get one.
Sounds like a prepaid phone.
I recently replaced my cell phone for $25 and got a Razor at a deep discount store (not Wal-Mart), and use pre-paid time. My cell phone time runs $10- approx a month. I don’t use my phone as a chat box. It’s to contact someone or an emergency tool.
It’s the amount you have to put on a prepaid Go phone (I think it is AT&T network) to have the minutes last for the whole year. I elected to have the $1 to use it on a particular day and $0.10 a minute for the calls since I tend to use it a bit on days when I do use it, but you can also have it be a straightforward $0.25 a minute. Useful for coordinating family gatherings (the bus is just getting to the Lincoln Tunnel…) and other similar uses. Not for general chatting.
I can make the observation that when I visit West Virginia, Walmart is considered high end. There seems to be at least one dollar store in every town. Smaller stores, to be sure, and even cheaper and lower-quality stuff than you would even find at Walmart. No doubt that all the stuff there is also made in China..
The other thing that strikes me is that as I look through the junk at the Dollar store, a good fraction of the stuff is arguably non-essential. Toys, decorations of one sort or another, and snack food.
The other thing that strikes me is that as I look through the junk at the Dollar store, a good fraction of the stuff is arguably non-essential. Toys, decorations of one sort or another, and snack food.
I certainly see that here in Tucson. You really have to hunt for the essentials.
For one thing, the Dollar Tree’s store layout is confusing. For another, the place looks like a tornado went through it.
I bet 9 out of 10 poor people who have cell phones don’t have land lines- that cell phone is their only phone. A phone is pretty much essential to getting and keeping any job nowadays, so I really don’t see how a poor guy having a cell phone is such an indictment of his character. A super-fancy cell phone maybe, but not a cell phone in itself.
Should the poor just own a bucket, a bowl, a spoon, a knife, and a blanket, like in the Good Old Days? (Forks were for the rich.)
“I seldom see a poor person without cigarettes or a cell phone these days.”
FWIW, an unlimited minutes Cricket phones costs about the same as a land line.
I can make the observation that when I visit West Virginia, Walmart is considered high end.
I’ve heard a few people refer to Walmart as being for rich people. The first time I assumed they were joking and almost laughed inappropriately. Now I’m starting to get used to it.
You can’t have a landline without a home to actually have one in. Basiuc cell phones are a necessity for people looking for work.
“And it is coming soon.”
Define “soon.” I’ve been hearing about this scenario for years now. Who’s to say that it will not continue indefinitely?
To prevent the Chinese from stopping buying our debt, we will simply have to raise interest rates.
A lot.
Way to go Polly. I thought I had the best deal at $10 a month plus state sales tax. It’s prepaid obviously, but unused minutes roll over forever. We have upwards of 40 HOURS credit on the phones now.
We old-timers remember when personal long-distance calls were used just to convey bad news or very good news. In the early era of direct dialing of long-distance calls, the rate could be over two dollars a minute during the day, depending on the distance.
Does anyone still use those 10XXX long distance services?
We old-timers remember when personal long-distance calls were used just to convey bad news or very good news.
LOL.
My mom, bless her heart, has unlimited long distance and still treats long distance calls like we’re living in the 60’s. She’ll talk fast even when I call her for “free” on Skype.
“My mom, bless her heart, has unlimited long distance and still treats long distance calls like we’re living in the 60’s. She’ll talk fast even when I call her for “free” on Skype.”
My mom keeps her cell phone turned off, unless she’s calling someone- to ’save the batteries’. I try to point out that it’s rechargeable, and we can’t call her when it’s turned off, but she still thinks it’s wasteful, somehow, and turns it off anyway.
I think she doesn’t really like the whole idea of cell phones.
“I think she doesn’t really like the whole idea of cell phones.”
There are a lot of Technophobes out there still, and many find the UI on a cell phone to be intimidating at best.
As much as I personally want the tax hike, this bill is so pork laden it compounds our already exisitng problems of governmental spending. I hope it doesn’t pass and while it may cost me more in dollars I think when the new Congress convenes they will pass a much better bill with lower taxes and not this gawd awful spending. Forget these lame ducks already; we voted for change
Bailout 6 will pass.
“Forget these lame ducks already; we voted for change”
Yes, but I think we should have been more specific about what kind of change we want… not sure the “new ducks” will make things better.
So we raise taxes and yet more folks default on their debts. More folks are then entitled to 99 weeks of unemployment. Then we simply add the debt to the national debt by bailing out the bondholders and so it goes. How about allowing the bondholders (where is YOUR 401k today?) to accept their losses without adding to the national debt.
Number of homes taken back by lenders tumbles
Foreclosure-document flaws lead to sharp drop in homes taken back by lenders in November
LOS ANGELES (AP) — The number of U.S. homes taken back by lenders dropped to the lowest level in 18 months in November, the result of foreclosure freezes enacted by several banks following allegations that evictions were handled improperly.
Home repossessions dropped 28 percent from October and 12 percent from November last year, foreclosure listing firm RealtyTrac Inc. said Thursday.
The 67,428 homes lenders took back last month were the fewest since May 2009. But even with the decline, it was enough to push the total number of repossessions so far this year to more than 980,000 — the highest annual tally of properties lost to foreclosure on RealtyTrac’s records dating back to 2005.
“It’s almost impossible to imagine that we won’t break a million” for the year, said Rick Sharga, a senior vice president at RealtyTrac. “Unfortunately, it’s a record that we’ll probably break again next year.”
Banks had been on pace to take back up to 1.2 million homes this year before problems with foreclosure documents surfaced in late September.
Drama Queen…
Obama tells lawmakers not passing tax deal could end presidency, Dem says. ~ The Hill
In urging lawmakers to vote for his tax deal, President Obama is using one of his go-to lines from the healthcare debate, according to a Democratic lawmaker.
Obama is telling members of Congress that failure to pass the tax-cut legislation could result in the end of his presidency, Rep. Peter DeFazio (Ore.) said.
“The White House is putting on tremendous pressure, making phone calls, the president is making phone calls saying this is the end of his presidency if he doesn’t get this bad deal,” he told CNN’s Eliot Spitzer.
Good grief. I am a pretty hard-core Obot, but if he is whining like that then he does not really want this job and should either step down or choose not to run in 2112. Can’t say I’d blame him in any case, but he should either fight for what he believes or get out of the way.
“… fight for what he believes …”
He’s a politician; The only thing he “believes” in is getting re-elected.
A sentiment which happens to run parallel to the concerns of the broader PTB (banks)…maintain the status quo.
Fight for what you believe in? What’s the point if you are only slugging at fog? Talk about a complete waste of time!
He is this generation’s Jimmy Carter (with deflation instead of inflation.)
It’s all over except for the rabbit!!!
should either step down or choose not to run in 2112
Do you know something we do not know?
8-0
Eh, it is just a warning that if they undermine the deal he made, they are killing the coat tails. The exact wording is a little over the top, but the sentiment is hardly a surprise. Now, the underlying assumption is shakey. I think it is trying to imply that he will be able to make deals withe coming Republican led House if they let this deal go forward. I don’t really see that, but that is the implication.
Now, you want to see drama queens? Try a DC area supermarket with snow expected. We are getting 1 to 3 inches (I think the three is only for pretty far south in Virginia) and you better not get between that mother and the milk, bread and eggs. Oh, and toilet paper. You…can…never….have….enough…toilet….paper.
French Toast for everyone!
Polly, people have been known to abandon their cars in the travel lanes on the beltway once the pavement gets covered by snow. Yes, they can no longer see the painted lane markers but when you’re midway between the two guard rails you can sorta figure out it’s not a good place to stop.
Well, i was thinking about taking up BJ’s on their offer of a free membership for 60 days and driving over today to pick up 3 years worth of kitchen scrubbies, etc. But with snow on the ground, no way. I can only see a side street from my window, but there is actual slush on the street, so no driving for me. I did join the feeding frenzy yesterday (I only had four slices of bread in the house), so today it is cooking and sorting year end financial papers. I know how to drive in snow, but I don’t trust any of the rest of these jokers.
By the way, how do you abandon a car on the beltway? It is a limited access highway. Do you walk home? How? I’ve heard that several times, but I don’t get how it works.
‘how do you abandon a car on the beltway’
Step out the back, Jack. Make a new plan, Stan…
…just drop off the key Lee
and set yourself… free.
can you have enough toilet paper?
It’s snowy down here in Southeastern Virginia. This could mess up my pre-purchased ticket for the Tron movie at midnight tonight. I was in DC for Snowpocolypse early this year, this is nothing compared to that.
I’m with Xenos. And I don’t know who is advising Obama, but I hope that he/she is telling him this:
“Don’t ever say that your presidency is over. Ever. Why? Because when you say that, you’re creating a self-fulfilling prophecy. Do you really want to do that?”
There you go, Mr. President. Some tough love from Arizona Slim in Tucson.
I wonder if it might be Bill Clinton…they met a few days ago.
He would be quite old in 2112. But wait, that is the year the ruling elite sop creativity, according to the rock group Rush.
Sop = stop
Obama is wrong. If the tax deal pass, his presidency is over anyway. The liberals, through 8 years of Bush and two years of Obama, had ONE solace: That eventually, the rich would have to pay more tax, and have to sacrifice a yacht or two, the horror.
Now Obama, after too much bipartisanship (see: healthcare), is threatening that last hope. Liberals are livid, and have said clearly that if they wanted a Republican in office, thy may as well get a real one instead of a sneak one like Obama is turning into. Obama is a goner.
And if you want sacrifice, look at the liberals. They have said, quite strongly, that they would rather see their own taxes go up, if taxes on the rich go up too.
Now Obama, after too much bipartisanship (see: healthcare)
?????
ObamaCare passed the senate and congress with almost zero republicans votes.
BINGO.
Amen to that, Oxide.
I’m not a political analyst; I have dabbled in elections and follow the news out of DC. I dislike both parties, but can see where this is going;
‘the liberals…have said, quite strongly, that they would rather see their own taxes go up, if taxes on the rich go up too’
I even heard a guy call into NPR and say the same thing. Problem is, nobody is actually proposing raising taxes on ‘liberals.’ (How would you do that anyway? Is there a special line on the tax return or something?) You are essentially saying that there are no ‘rich’ liberals. Did you know all the main people on NPR make over $250k/year? And how about all those wealthy Democrats in the senate?
This is the flip side of the welfare queen argument. It’s an us versus them set-up that doesn’t work well in elections. Example; Typical Voter; ‘Well, I don’t have a job, the country is going to hell, but at least my candidate raised taxes on the rich guy on the other side of the town.’
IMO most Republicans suck eggs, but they are running circles around the opposition these days. I followed the health care thing; Obama just wanted a bill to sign. Any bill. And what he got was garbage that the courts will throw out before the next elections. So the Repubs came out smelling like a rose by trying to block him every step of the way. If I had been advising the WH, I would have said, “put up your public option. If it goes down, then you can point at the other side when health care keeps getting harder to afford.”
I was telling my demo friends long ago that they would hate Obama before this was all over. The reason was simple; he ran on the “anybody but Bush platform.” So here we are, the WH is trying to prop up housing prices, the dems have been running cover for the GSEs and wall street. (Yes, they are every bit as beholden to the “evil” bankers as anybody).
And there is the stuff that Obama could have done unilaterally; things that he promised to do, like roll back the police state Bush was so fond of. But instead, he is ordering assassinations and protecting Bush’s torture machinery! Oh, and those wars Obama was going to end. Did you hear we were dropping bombs in Iraq last week? Have you heard the WH excuses on why we can’t leave Afghanistan? And back to the fiscal topic;
Do you know how expensive this empire is?
‘A record 60 percent of Americans say the war in Afghanistan has not been worth fighting, a grim assessment — and a politically hazardous one…Negative views of the war for the first time are at the level of those recorded for the war in Iraq, whose unpopularity dragged George W. Bush to historic lows in approval across his second term. On average from 2005 through 2009, 60 percent called that war not worth fighting, the same number who say so about Afghanistan now. As support for the Iraq war went down, approval of Bush’s job performance fell in virtual lockstep, a strongly cautionary note for President Obama.’
http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/abc-news-washington-post-poll-exclusive-afghanistan-war/story?id=12404367
Game theory has a good description for the Democrat-Republican agreement on taxes:
Prisoner’s dilemma.
Ben, you have summed up the frustration that I and many others feel with President Obama. It seems that once he won the fight to gain the office, he didn’t know what to do with it.
“protecting Bush’s torture machinery”
I was sad to read in Wikileaks the pressure he exerted on European governments to keep those deeds under wraps.
It seems that once he won the fight to gain the office, he didn’t know what to do with it.
Reminds me of what someone, and I don’t recall who, said to President Jimmy Carter:
You used all your luck getting here.
By “here,” that person meant the White House.
Ben Jones,
“just wanted a bill to sign. Any bill”.
That was my distinct impression from inception. In sales, it’s called “getting a yes”. Do you like me? No. Do you like this ’stock’? No. Do you like my tie? Yes.
I got a YES! I’ve lambasted the Oregon GOP to employ the same tactics just to exhibit just how ridiculous that whole strategy is anyway! What would you like The Future to look like? And so you shall have it!
I’m not a political analyst
I am kinda/sorta/awee lil’bit,… however, eyes was forced under threat of being branded: “Un-Patriotic!” non-voter.
“TrueBeliever’s™ / “TrueDeceiver’s™” “TrueHypocrite™” / “TruePurity™” siblings: “Did you vote?”
Hwy: “um, no…”
siblings in chorus: “Then shut the f%#K up!”
(Hwy reminisces at the ballot choices presented to him in Nov 2008)
I agree with you on that Hwy. And we could be presented with just as ugly a ballot choice in 2012.
I don’t see anyone that can beat Obama in 2012, unless a popular third party candidate runs to his left.
I don’t see anyone that can beat Obama in 2012, unless a popular third party candidate runs to his left.
My prediction:
The economy will improve enough that Obama will be able to cite it in his 2012 re-election campaign. Much like Reagan did during his “Morning in America” ads in 1984.
Also, like Reagan in ‘84, he’ll have the gift of a weak opponent. Imagine the Republican equivalent of Walter Mondale, and you’ve got the picture.
I don’t see anyone that can beat Obama in 2012, unless a popular third party candidate runs to his left.
Nobody is gonna beat him from the left. I doubt anybody will beat him from the right, either. Having said that, we might only be one poorly handled Iranian hostage crisis away from President Palin. She’s not Reagan, but she has a very similar appeal to the same core block of voters. If she were the nominee and the center became totally disgusted with Obama for some reason…
I’m looking forward to the Obama’s rabbit!!!
In the age of Youtube, that’s gonna be one awesome rabbit. Bring on the rabbit.
An opponent to Obama’s left wouldn’t win, but would serve as a spoiler, like Nader was to Gore.
“IMO most Republicans suck eggs, but they are running circles around the opposition these days…And there is the stuff that Obama could have done unilaterally; things that he promised to do, like roll back the police state Bush was so fond of. But instead, he is ordering assassinations and protecting Bush’s torture machinery! Oh, and those wars Obama was going to end. Did you hear we were dropping bombs in Iraq last week? Have you heard the WH excuses on why we can’t leave Afghanistan?”
I couldn’t agree more. I’d say the Democrats have done even worse than the Repubs. They seem completely confused, inept, and incapable of carrying out what they promise.
The number one reason I wanted Obama over McCain was to get out of Afghanistan and Iraq immediately. It makes absolutely no difference if we leave tomorrow vs. next year, other than the fact that we save more money the sooner we leave.
Obama campaigned on “change” but has morphed into George Bush III, continuing the same failed policies both stateside as well as internationally. As someone who voted for him, I’d give him an F at this point. If I had hired him as an employee, I would chalk it up to my mistake as I fired him.
“The liberals, through 8 years of Bush and two years of Obama, had ONE solace: That eventually, the rich would have to pay more tax, and have to sacrifice a yacht or two, the horror.”
that’s twisted
Speaking of his presidency being over, here’s what a Tucson Weekly columnist has to say:
After his tax-cut capitulation, Obama has lost the confidence of this Democrat
Key graf from the column:
“Count me among the many Democrats who are firmly in the dis- category—as in disillusioned, disappointed or even disgusted over his complete surrender on the tax issue. It’s as though after two years of a stumbling occupancy in the Oval Office in which he somehow managed to appear arrogant and weak at the same time, he decided to look up the word “compromise” on some wiki-dictionary and mistakenly got the definition for “capitulation” instead.”
A president that’s alienating his base the way this guy is has to be in some serious trouble.
One has to assume that with his advisers and daily meetings, he probably gets a more grim view than we do.
I likes lil’ Opie, he ‘taint all that mischievous/malicious as eyes sees it, …nice lil’ family too!
At this Hwy50 juncture, I’d vote for him again.
(Secretly eyes hopes lil’ Opie wasn’t born in the 49th pineapple State, American needs a huge “joke-on-itself” rights ’bout now)
There you go again, wanting people to lose their jobs on the rich folk’s yachts.
Rich people pay lots of wages to people who make , run, and maintain those ostentatious purchases like yachts, don’t they.
Take away the yachts and pay unemployment to the laid off workers.
LOL
WRONG
The rich hire contractors/1099ers to work on their yachts and fix their Gulfstreams. You don’t have to worry about paying all those pesky expenses associated with real employees that way. Like health insurance.
While taking their own sweet time about paying invoices, so the contractor either has to give them a 60 day, interest free loan to continue paying for parts and other services, or try to find another contract, when half of the formerly employed people in the business are becoming “contractors” too.
Mark my word……..when this business picks up again, you are going to hear all kinds of whining about “shortages of skilled people” coming from all the suits and talking heads.
No questions at all about how they have driven all the decent people and companies out of the business, because the ROI is zero or negative.
Exact same thing happened to the oil exploration industry.
After the last bust, thousands left for other careers or “retired.” The result was a shortage of experienced people when oil went back up again. Newbies could start at 50k. But that also meant 50-60-70hr weeks. A young man’s game.
But if you could hack it for 3-4 years, you could easily make 100k with overtime, travel, etc. Which is a hell of a lot of money for no college ed and being under 30.
Has happened in about every industry I know that requires a high standard of training and/or experience.
A lot of talk about how “vital you are to the team” when they need you. But backing up words with money? Fat freaking chance.
This is why I left the aerospace OEM I worked at for 20 years. They liked to advertise their “industry leading” service and support, and made it a big profit center for the company. But reward the people that made it happen?
(crickets)
One of the guys on my crew came up with a better method to do a Warranty Service Bulletin/AD. Turned a 200/man hour job into a 40 hour one. Saved the company about $800K. At the time, the company had a “reward” program for just this very thing.
His “reward”? A coffee cup.
Needless to say, when the word got around to everyone in the 200 plus person department, everyone pretty much decided that they were going to keep any “improved methods” to themselves.
Stupid, worthless management came before stupid, worthless employees.
Mark my word……..when this business picks up again, you are going to hear all kinds of whining about “shortages of skilled people” coming from all the suits and talking heads. ”
yea I think you’re right
Mark my word……..when this business picks up again, you are going to hear all kinds of whining about “shortages of skilled people” coming from all the suits and talking heads. ”
OTOH, those who have the skills will find themselves in the catbird seat. And I nominate X-GSfixr for first place in this department.
The bad news is that everybody under the age of 30 in my field has been thrown under the bus.
Along with a bunch of other fields.
Of course, if as it appears, the PTB (Republicans and most of the Democrats)are hellbent on turning the country into some kind of Third World Banana Republic, and a functioning infrastructure is not as important as it once was, things are going according to plan.
If you have the skills/intelligence to fix airplanes, there are all kinds of other jobs that require the same/similar skillset. And pay a lot better, without running the risk of lawsuits or jail time, every time you sign a logbook entry. So they go into other lines of work, usually never to return…….
Which means that when us old guys have to retire/die off, and there aren’t any young guys to pass the “tribal knowledge” down to, they will have to re-learn everything that we learned.
I think this plan is pretty fooked up. But I’m looking at it from my own narrow perspective.
Good lord, if a tax increase is the price we pay to see Obama taking a walk I will pay! Lets just hope the next president (not Palin) will have the strength and intelligence to start turning things around if it is not already too late.
Hillary??
Barney Fife: “Hey lil’ Opie, you find that manual yet?”,…”we’ve gots to get this back together before Andy gets back to Mayberry in 2012, HURRY!”
http://image.internetautoguide.com/f/auto-news/2010-hyundai-genesis-sedan-disassembled-on-its-new-interactive-website/27465436/2010-hyundai-genesis-sedan-disassembled.jpg
Moody’s sees more foreclosure delays in 2011
Dec 14, 2010 4:00 PM ET
By The Associated Press
“In 2011, it will become evident how seriously courts will view violations of court rules on foreclosure procedures” says Gene Berman, the lead author of the report. “Since judicial foreclosure laws vary as greatly from state to state as judicial foreclosures do from judge to judge, we could see a wide range of judicial opinions on the legality of the foreclosure processes and actions taken to remedy each situation.”
Regardless, Moody’s believes the foreclosure documentation mess will serve to drag out the time it takes for a home to be lost to foreclosure by three months or more.
Meanwhile, Moody’s anticipates the government will boost its mortgage modification programs, likely in an effort to help borrowers who owe more money on their mortgage than their home is worth.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-12-14/moody-s-sees-more-foreclosure-delays-in-2011.html - 50k
All of this boosts consumer spending because people living rent free for a year or more have more money to spend.
Our most cost effective health-care in the USA right now (The much improved VA system) is a model of single-payer but the right doesn’t like that label and calls it socialism. But I have an idea! The right loves our military and anything to do with it so let’s make a VA type system that everyone can buy into and just call it “Military Medicine”.
Think about it. A right-winger goes up to another rightie and says. “My Blue Cross is ripping me off and I’ll have to skip some life saving treatments again to save money.” But the other rightie says. “Well I got military medicine and it covers everything and I never have to skip treatments.” The Blue Cross guy says. “I’m gonna have to look into this “military medicine” thing. I’ve heard great things about it…..”
From Amazon:
Best Care Anywhere: Why VA Health Care is Better Than Yours [Paperback] Phillip Longman
http://www.amazon.com/Best-Care-Anywhere-Health-Better/dp/0977825302
The long-maligned Veterans Health Administration has become the highest-quality healthcare provider in the United States. This encouraging change not only has benefited veterans but also provides a blueprint for salvaging America’s own deeply troubled healthcare system. “Best Care Anywhere” shows how a government bureaucracy, working with little notice, is setting the standard for best practices and cost reduction while the private sector is lagging in both areas.
Author Phillip Longman challenges conventional wisdom by explaining exactly how market forces work to lower quality and raise prices in the healthcare sector, and how U.S. medical practices have a weak basis in science. The book, expanded from a widely praised article in the “Washington Monthly,” mixes hard facts with author Philip Longmans’ compelling human story of the loss of his wife to cancer. Part manifesto, part moving memoir, “Best Care Anywhere” offers new hope for addressing a major problem of contemporary society that affects all of us.
Reader Review:
Philip Longman makes the case that current U.S. healthcare is a fragmented, market driven system that lags behind much of the industrialized world in both quality and access of healthcare. According to Longman, the problem with our healthcare system is that it isn’t really a system and that it doesn’t reward the one thing that it should - health improvement. In fact, he offers proof that in the U.S. doctors and hospitals are rewarded for providing treatment, but not necessarily providing health to their patients. To illustrate this, he offers examples from two of the nation’s premier hospitals - Beth Israel and Duke Medical Center. Both initiated programs that were so successful at improving health that they became unprofitable and were ultimately terminated.
…the book explores the history of the VA and speaks honestly about some of the warts that mar the VA’s reputation. But the truth of the matter is that the VA has turned all of that around and is currently at the front of the healthcare revolution.
like the NHS, good for major maladies and emergency, not for everyday care, preventive and borderline elective surgery..
Actually, having volunteerer/taught at a VA hospital for a while, I’d say a bit of the opposite–very good for preventive care, a bit scary at times if you’re quite sick. Which also would be similar to the NHS. Some great employed physicians work there, and some absolutely awful ones as well.
You don’t know what you’re talking about.
Great for preventive care and everyday care. Much more evidence and cost benefit based.
I see you have never used the VA.
I have.
Coverage and services varies form excellent to dismal.
The big difference is that if you get dismal service now at least there is a back up system.
When did you use the VA? According to this article by the same writer, There were reforms instituted in the late 1990s that improved conditions dramatically.
http://www.washingtonmonthly.com/features/2005/0501.longman.html
Service varies from excellent to dismal.
I’d say this is true for all medicine.
All you can do is look at cost and overall outcomes and the VA system costs less and provides better overall care.
Here’s the wee lil’ problem Rio:
The Hospital administrators & surgeons & doctors & Specialists would have a salary,…a FIXED salary.
NEVER-WILL-HAPPEN-IN-AMERICA…NEVER!
Until they run out of paying customers. If you don’t have 100 grand for this replacement knees, you’ll just continue to hobble around and the orthopedic surgeon will sit around looking bored.
Or yo might go overseas to get a it done for a fraction of the US price.
Strange.
I and most of the hospital Admins are on salary, and the trend is to bring more/most of the subspecialists under hospital salary the next few years. Negotiations happening now.
regards
evildoc
Me too. And it’s looking like no bonuses this year, either. At least not in my department.
What is the salary for the CEO of ALL the VA hospitals? What is the salary of the CEO of x1 VA hospital?
Regards, Hwy50
Chapel Hill, N.C. — Blue Cross Blue Shield of North Carolina, the state’s largest insurer, earned $186 million last year while raising premiums on customers as the economy slid into recession.
Such large profits by a nonprofit company elicited sharp criticism from health care reform and state employee advocates.
“How can they, in good conscience, pay their CEO almost $2,000 an hour when the majority of state employees earn $16 for that same hour of work?” Cope said in a statement.
In addition to its annual profit, Blue Cross has a $1.3 billion reserve account – enough to cover more than three months of operating costs.
Conscience? What is this word? We health industry execs know nothing of this concept!
Chapel Hill, N.C. — Blue Cross Blue Shield of North Carolina, the state’s largest insurer, earned $186 million last year while raising premiums on customers as the economy slid into recession
My step father likes to say that captialism is
“always more efficient” than government. What he doesn’t understand is that capitalism is efficient and enriching the CEO not at providing health care efficiently to the masses and improving the health of the country and reducing costs.
Let’s say that again
186 million dollars for a years for teh CEO for blue cross blue shield.
A job done by the secretary of veterans affairs for 200,000 a year.
Now multiply all the other leaches in the private insurance market and you get an idea of how much money they strip from the system while providing minimal benefit.
It’s not hard to fill the positions if the system pays for medical school and malpractice insurance.
I don’t know, I was just having a conversation yesterday with a friend who went for two years without diagnosis on their HMO medical plan which refused to pay for tests needed. She finally got diagnosed when a friend who’s husband was a doctor had her husband take a look at her. He reckoned she had only weeks to live. My friends mother? Same thing after complaining of problems for a year they took matters into their own hands and paid privately for tests. They were able to catch the cancer in time. The HMO would have allowed her to die at age 60. The best medical care in the world?
Same in UK. My mother was not diagnosed with Cancer until way too late.
The lesson? PAY FOR YOUR OWN DIAGNOSIS if you believe something is wrong.
Medical insurance is useless except for accidents and trauma.
I believe the “Obamacare” stipulates that health plans have to provide preventive care that is not subject to deductibles.
Which you’d think would make sense. After a preventive check up a few years a ago my Doc decided to send me off to have a colonoscopy. And its a good thing he did as they found one of the bad kind of polyps in my gut. Had it not been removed there was a very good chance it would have become cancerous and I would have gone through very expensive treatments and would have probably died anyway.
Nya-Nya Nee Boo-Boo!!!!!
My colon only had good polyps!!!!
LOL! In my followup next year they only found one, and it was the ” good” kind of polyp.
I may be wrong on this, but isn’t technically the VA considered socialized medicine, while Medicare is considered single-payer?
I may be wrong on this, but isn’t technically the VA considered socialized medicine, while Medicare is considered single-payer?
By gosh you are right. But can we please not call VA medical “socialized medicine” and just call it “military medicine”. (more people will like it then.)
From: Physicians for a National Health-Care Program
http://www.pnhp.org/facts/single-payer-faq#what-is-single-payer
Q&A
What is single payer?
Single-payer national health insurance is a system in which a single public or quasi-public agency organizes health financing, but delivery of care remains largely private. Under a single-payer system, all Americans would be covered for all medically necessary services, including: doctor, hospital, preventive, long-term care, mental health, reproductive health care, dental, vision, prescription drug and medical supply costs. Patients would regain free choice of doctor and hospital, and doctors would regain autonomy over patient care.
Is national health insurance ‘socialized medicine’?
No. Socialized medicine is a system in which doctors and hospitals work for and draw salaries from the government. Doctors in the Veterans Administration and the Armed Services are paid this way. The health systems in Great Britain and Spain are other examples. But in most European countries, Canada, Australia and Japan they have socialized health insurance, not socialized medicine. The government pays for care that is delivered in the private (mostly not-for-profit) sector. This is similar to how Medicare works in this country. Doctors are in private practice and are paid on a fee-for-service basis from government funds. The government does not own or manage medical practices or hospitals.
You are on to something here.
Draft everyone between 16 and 65. Compulsory military service for EVERYONE. 1 year tours.
Close to Home (PBS Video)
http://video.pbs.org/video/1311087223/
I don’t know if anyone saw this on Frontline on PBS.
It is about the recession’s impact on the middle class - mostly New Yorkers.
There are some points HB would have some issues with but overall very well done.
Parts of it will really make you think.
Worth your time to watch.
I thought “Close To Home” was about a bunch of spoiled whiners. I saw it a while ago.None of them had the hardships most Americans have right now. Driving a luxury car, living big, having been laid off from a cushy job doesn’t move me to tears.
Driving a luxury car, living big, having been laid off from a cushy job doesn’t move me to tears.
Those were the points I would disagree with in “Close To Home” that both of you hit.
Then there was the carpenter who was living in a simple $100,000 house who lost his job - then lost his house and wife died in the span of a few days. He basically comes back from the funeral and all his belongings are out on the street (he got no two years of mortgage free living).
Now he is living in backroom of a house with his two dogs with 5 other people. He once was the premier ballet dancer in Florida (the picture/video of him showed a strong and very handsome man).
Now he is a wreck with nothing in this world except his dogs and a few part time jobs. He asks “Is this all living is about?”
Hard not to feel a bunch of empathy for that.
“…..nothing in the world except his dogs and a few part time jobs……”
I’m livin’ the life dude……except for the dogs.
It’s been amazing how fast one can end up in the poorhouse, even when you make all the “right” decisions.
A divorce, and two extended periods of unemployment in 5 years (when a company gets in trouble, the airplanes and support people are the very first to get thrown under the bus) can really trash your finances. On top of your pay “raises” being well below the inflation rate, even when you are working.
“It’s been amazing how fast one can end up in the poorhouse, even when you make all the “right” decisions.”
No! It’s because you buy too much bling/junk at Wal Mart! (Right, Combo?) I bet you own a cell phone- maybe even a TV! That’s why you’re in the poorhouse! You deserve what you get, sinner!
Who are you and what did you do with 2banana?!
Yes, this is the central idea I try to hammer home. No matter how cool and smart you think you are, you CAN lose it all in the blink of an eye and if your attitude is that poor people are leeches and lazy, you will NOT survive. The depression alone will kill you.
Something I can only pray that most of the arrogant a-holes who think the poor have it easy, have a chance to experience.
When I changed jobs in 2000, I moved to an area where poverty/low incomes were much more prevalent. In a die hard, Republican-forever, Red State.
Single moms working three jobs, guys working 60-70 hour weeks @ min. wage, until their bodies break down, and they go on disability, since there is no money/motivation to retrain them for other work. People who grew up middle class, but dropped into poverty after a single bout with drug or alcohol addiction, or job loss. Kids whose only decent meal of the day was the subsidized school lunch (And if you think that’s a treat, you haven’t eaten a school lunch lately).
Even most of the government/school employees and teachers aren’t getting rich, in spite some of the claims others may make.. And about every teacher I know is paying for materials out of pocket, because there is no budget to buy anything. Except for the athletics-industrial complex.
A real eye opener for someone who generally believed all the BS about poor people, spewed forth by the Republican Party. And, as a new member of the part-time, underemployed, contractor class, I’m found that doing all the paperwork to get any kind of unemployment/benefits from the government is a full time job by itself.
“Even most of the government/school employees and teachers aren’t getting rich, in spite some of the claims others may make.”
Amen. I know most of the teachers at my son’s HS make less than 45K per year. My sister is a bilingual teacher with 10 years under her belt: 40K.
> doing all the paperwork to get any kind of unemployment/benefits from the government is a full time job by itself.
Nah. In Indiana I’ve timed it. Initial setup was about 2 hours with one phone call. Benefits started after 2 weeks - directly to a debit card. Weekly re-filing can be done online and takes about 3 minutes a week.
“Parts of it will really make you think.”
The part that really makes me think is of all the money these people are flushing down the drain at this high-end beauty salon while at the same time whining about their money woes.
IMHO the very first step these people should be taking is thinking of ways to cut back on their spending.
There are plenty of Supercuts outlets in New York. I got one of my best haircuts ever in one down near NYU. Lady seemed to be a Jamaican immigrant. She was incredible. Less than $20 with tip.
I saw most of the show. I think the most interesting aspect of it was the people with small businesses who were losing so much of their income. While the boom was going on, it seems that it was almost impossible to fail at anything in NYC since the Wall street money was simply flooding the whole area. Wall Street is still doing just fine, but the pull back means that you can’t just open a shop or declare yourself a personal trainer and have more customers/clients than you can handle. And if you listen carefully, you hear that people have eaten through a lot of the cushion they had. Despite the stereotype, plenty of people do have savings. The question is can it last long enough for the economy to recover? Will their parents be able to bail them out until they get real work again? Will they ever be able to make up for the cashed out IRA?
By the way, I have just about decided to skip the iMac. It is just too expensive. Also, the screen is very shiney, and in my current set up, I think I would be dealing with a lot of screen glare if I ever want to use the computer in the morning. There are a few large monitors that are not shiney - you have to look, but they are there. I’ll still consider a mini, but I think I am going to just get a Windows 7 tower. Dull, but workable.
What’s with the shiny screens on some current laptops, not just imacs? Are they cheaper to make? If you have any kind of light behind you the glare on the screen is brutal.
I still like the Thinkpad line best. Not new. Refurbs/off lease. And they still come with matte screens.
I have a 2005 ThinkPad that goes with me when I hit the road. Although it’s slow as dirt on the bootup, it does have a nice matte screen.
And I can use it for things like editing photos. A job that eats computing power for breakfast, lunch, and dinner.
I think the shiny screens are there because they make the pixels look brighter and clearer. They’re good for multimedia-type stuff, but not so great for text.
I haven’t gone to Supercuts for years. Went to ne in the area last weekend. She gave me the best haircut in many years.
My take on it is that unemployment insurance should have been extended as a “workfare” program.
Get those people now getting together for networking meetings doing something. The government wouldn’t have to manage it, because they could organize the projects themselves. Some might eventually evolve into companies.
unemployment insurance should have been extended as a “workfare” program ??
+1 +1 WT…..You can’t just hand someone a check each week/month….They become dependent on it…Plan all their spending around it…Idle time is the devils workshop they say and based on some I see around here that are 99′ers, I would agree…
I prefer “idle tools are the devil’s hands”. Hence the upswing in unwed mothers.
Except births are down since the “great” recession started.
Except births are down since the “great” recession started.
And ISTR hearing that deaths due to suicide are up. I can think of two cases in my circle of friends and acquaintances.
“And ISTR hearing that deaths due to suicide are up.”
I can personally vouch for that.
Now what precisely are you going to have these people do?
Any job you have them do is going to take work away from people who are currently working.
The main problem is NO JOBS, not lazy people.
Stay focused on the real problem.
The main problem is NO JOBS, not lazy people?
I do not necessarily consider them lazy although I am sure there are some…The problem is idle time…People all have their own degree of tolerance looking for a job before they become depressed and just quit looking..Hence, (DennisN) “Idle tools are the devils hands”…
There is plenty to do without taking someone else’s work…Many well connected and powerful people end up in the most obscure locations such as; The Salvation Army…They could do a few days of volunteer work in return for the check…Still gives them plenty of time to seek game-full employment on the other off days…Who knows, maybe one of those well connected people at the TSA will get you a job or at least a interview….
Economies which don’t get bailed out recover, too. Except for maybe the banksters.
That post was a 5.13am misfire. Here is the supporting evidence:
Iceland Emerged From Recession in 3rd Quarter
Halldor Kolbeins/Agence France-Presse — Getty Images
Demonstrators gathered outside Parliament in Reykjavik in October to protest the government’s economic policies. Like Ireland and Greece, Iceland has taken a large dose of austerity to reconstruct its economy.
By DAVID JOLLY
Published: December 7, 2010
Iceland emerged from recession in the third quarter, official data showed Tuesday, returning to growth for the first time since its financial system collapsed at the height of the crisis in 2008.
Iceland’s real gross domestic product grew by 1.2 percent in the July-September period from the previous quarter, the first quarterly increase since the same period in 2008. Iceland entered a slump after its overleveraged financial sector collapsed in the wake of Lehman Brothers’ bankruptcy.
Like Ireland and Greece, Iceland has taken a large dose of austerity measures to rebuild its economy. Unlike Ireland and Greece, however, Iceland allowed private banks to fail, and its currency, the krona, has declined by about 46 percent against the dollar since the start of 2008.
“Excluding the financial system, the real economy is doing well,” Arsaell Valfells, a professor of business and finance at the University of Iceland, said in telephone interview. Retail spending was still shrinking, he said, but the export sector, consisting mainly of fish, aluminum and tourism, was improving.
…
Excluding the financial system, the real economy is doing well,
If only we could say the same thing in the US.
Yeah. Here, it’s the other way around. Bassackwards.
How much of their recovery is because of our bailouts. The article mentions the falling Krona. Well, if we weren’t bailing out US and EZ banks, those currencies would be falling too, negating the krona drop.
Exports are up, but they wouldn’t be if US and EZ hadn’t bailed out banks.
If things were different, they wouldn’t be the same.
Let’s see what happens to Iceland’s economy when US and EZ austarity gets going full scale.
Thank goodness that at least _one_ country has taken a sane no-bailouts approach to the crisis.
They will serve as a fantastic counter-point to the rest of the world—almost a “control group” if you will.
I think that they will fare well even when austerity sweeps the globe, since they will by that point have a more balanced, more local economy that will be relatively unaffected.
I wish them the very best. They are the economy that I am rooting for the hardest.
Yes let’s compare Ireland to Iceland over the next three years.
My guess is that most of Ireland will be farming potatoes and heating houses using cow dung and sending their virgin daughters to the royal banks to be deflowered before they can get married.
Oooo, where do I sign up for that duty?
Just trying to do my part to help show their country the error of their banker-subsidizing ways!
As much as I personally want the tax hike, this bill is so pork laden it compounds our already exisitng problems of governmental spending. I hope it doesn’t pass and while it may cost me more in dollars I think when the new Congress convenes they will pass a much better bill with lower taxes and not this gawd awful spending. Forget these lame ducks already; we voted for real change
Al we ever hear about is “tax cuts for the rich”, “taxpayers losing 700 billion over 10 years”.
They are not tax cuts..they are continuing the current tax code.
We are not losing $700 billion over ten years it is our money the gov’mint is going to get $700 billion less dollars so they need to spend $700 billion less. what is so hard for them to understand?
There is never a thought of cutting the government. Because this is where pointy headed socialist “planners” get all their power and wealth.
its so funny how they get elected to the house as middle class people and leave after 20 yrs multi millionaires on the taxpayers dime but yell about “the wealthy”
Maybe the American people will wake up some day.
“They are not tax cuts..they are continuing the current tax code.”
The current tax rates were “temporary” and expired far enough out in the future that they knew it would most likely be somebody elses’ problem when the chickens came home to roost.
expired far enough out in the future that they knew it would most likely be somebody elses’ problem when the chickens came home to roost.
http://memegenerator.net/Foghorn-Leghorn/ImageMacro/887752/Foghorn-Leghorn-boy-i-say-boy-I-think-yer-on-to-something.jpg
You misspelled loosing.
oh looosee, LOOOOSEEEE!
You got some ’splainin’ to do!
WAAAAA!
“There is never a thought of cutting the government [discretionary outlays]. Because this is where the owners of t-bills, war profiteers and militarists get all their power and wealth.”
Every ox should be gored
munitions makers…malefactors of wealth!
what is this, 1933? Oh wait…
Government spending is the only thing keeping money in the hands of the poor and middle class that will actually spend it. Cut government spending $700 billion, you’ll add atleast 2% to the unemployment rate immediatly, which would then echo throuh the economy. To cut that deeply, you’d have to cut military spending 50%, resulting in the loss of millions of jobs. You’d also have to cut Social Security and Medicar/caid, crushing spending by seniors, crushing the economy.
Money exists to allow a smoothly functioning economy. That means we have to prevent it from accumulting into too few hands. We have to keep it moving.
Is it your money? No, it is the economy’s money. It doesn’t exist so that a select few individuals can play with peoples’ lives as if they were the masters of the universe. It exists to promote commerce, and for that to work, it can’t sit stagnant in the hands of only a select few people.
What if there were another way? What if people with little could get something without the police giving it to them for free? What if we had a frickin economy in which people could work and earn instead of the police state you describe?
Oh, so you are in favor of strong unions and tariffs?
What if instead of handing out debit cards to the poor, food stamps, cheap housing etc….we put some of these people to work on real infrastructure jobs that produce a return to society.
This paying people pretend entiltements for nothing ends up causing riots when the spending has to be curtailed.
its just like everything the liberal “planners” do. They started the war on poverty and now we have more poverty. They opened up the borders and make it easier to subvert our immigration laws and now we have more illegal immigration.
Everything that big goverment, liberal policies have failed throughout the world. Talk to Europe who all the lefties here idolized and now they are broke too!
So, mass Social Security and Medicaid cuts and put Octoganarians to work building roads????
SS and MC cost us 3x as much as everything that can remotely be called welfare.
The projected GROWTH of SS and MC over the next 10 years as the Baby Boomers begin to retire SWAMP anything remotely resembling welfare.
Talk to Europe who all the lefties here idolized and now they are broke too!
Relax. Everyone is “broke” now. The US is just the most “broke”. And the reason why some “lefties” idolize Europe is because of math and stuff. Europe is better at capitalism than America while at the same time providing a social safety net. I think that means Europeans are better capitalists and better socialists than Americans. But don’t worry because America has by far the richest billionaires.
Why Europe Will Win
http://www.newsweek.com/2010/04/15/why-europe-will-win.html
Forget the conventional wisdom. European firms are faster-growing, more profitable, and better at globalization than their American rivals.
It’s become a truism that America is full of “can do” people and companies, while slow-moving Europeans are more likely to offer a “yes, but” when faced with challenge….
…But as is so often the case, a close look at the numbers tells a different story. Contrary to the widespread cliché of American dynamism versus European economic stagnation, over the past decade Europe’s top companies have beaten America’s (not to mention Japan’s) by an often substantial margin.
Despite the rise of China and the rest, Europe has held roughly steady, at about 17 percent, its share of world exports since 2000, while America’s has fallen by more than a third, from 17 to 11 percent—a crude but significant indicator of global competitiveness. Since the early 1990s, Europe has steadily expanded its share of the world’s 100 biggest multinationals compiled annually by the U.N. Conference on Trade and Development, from 57 in 1991 to 61 last year, while the U.S. number has dropped from 26 to 19.
Europe has moved up these and other corporate rankings with new and fast-expanding companies in such sectors as energy (Germany’s E.On and France’s GDF Suez), finance (Britain’s HSBC and Italy’s UniCredit), and telecommunications (Spain’s Telefónica and Britain’s Vodafone)—while America’s roster of large global companies has been mostly static and declining, with new stars like Google the exception, not the rule.
What’s more, Europe’s growth has been highly profitable. According to a study of the top 3,000 global companies by the German business consultancy Roland Berger, the European companies in the group grew profits at an average rate of 13 percent a year over the decade from 1998 to 2008, almost double the 7 percent rate for their U.S. rivals. Berger CEO Burkhard Schwenker says corporate Europe now has higher earning power than America Inc., …..
European economic stagnation, over the past decade Europe’s top companies have beaten America’s (not to mention Japan’s) by an often substantial margin.
Not to mention the fact that we are slowly strangling ourselves with patents and copyrights.
Impossible, Rio! I have it on good authority from the right-wingers here, that Europe is an over-regulated gray Soviet gulag, where the people stand in long lines on their seven-weeks-a-year vacations, waiting for second-rate medical care. It is inconceivable that such a socialist system could be kicking our butts in developing new industries. That’s like saying their socialist medicine could result in longer life expectancies at much less cost than our system. Simply impossible.
So, how are you going to raise the global wage from $2-$3 a day, to $15 an hour so the American worker can be competative?
Or are you just going to lower the American wage down to the global wage? If you think the middle class is going to accept that without Wall Street bazallionares feeling some pain too, then you are totally out of touch with reality.
I recommend raising the minimum wage to $150 per hour for everyone on earth. Then we will all be rich, won’t we?
“I recommend raising the minimum wage to $150 per hour for everyone on earth. Then we will all be rich, won’t we?”
So are you saying that the only way capitalism can work is if there is a large, impoverished underclass?
Is it your money? No, it is the economy’s money. It doesn’t exist so that a select few individuals can play with peoples’ lives as if they were the masters of the universe. It exists to promote commerce, and for that to work, it can’t sit stagnant in the hands of only a select few people.
This is the heart of the problem … money honestly earned should be ours and no one should be able to coercively make claims to it. When we allow a currency system to promote the idea that “Money exists to allow a smoothly functioning economy” then we will always have the TBTF, TARP, BARF, QE, bailouts, etc. I hope for a stable currency that represents actual wealth rather than a chance to play the slot machines of the FED et al.
This is the heart of the problem … money honestly earned should be ours and no one should be able to coercively make claims to it.
If you earn your money within the auspices of the monkey-pack, then you have to kick some back in to the running of the monkey-pack, or else you don’t get to be in the monkey-pack anymore. That’s the democratically-decided deal. Don’t like it? Then leave the pack, or change our minds.
It’s a voluntary arrangement, not coercive.
so you are saying that I should stop worrying about others and take advantage of the system like everyone else … leave the pack is what is about to happen on a mass scale i think??
I’m saying taxation isn’t coercive, it’s voluntary. We as a society have agreed upon it as a condition to being part of our society. If you don’t like it, you are free to leave this society, or convince it otherwise. Only if you could do neither of those things would it be coercive.
“Maybe the American people will wake up some day.”
Your post would be a good example of this never happening.
tem·po·rar·y /ˈtɛmpəˌrɛri/ [tem-puh-rer-ee] noun,plural-rar·ies.
–adjective
1.lasting, existing, serving, or effective for a time only; not permanent: a temporary need; a temporary job.
Use: “The tax cuts were TEMPORARY and set to automatically expire.”
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* December 3, 2010, 12:43 PM ET
Should Goldman Sachs Be Broken Up?
By Shira Ovide
Is the Giant Vampire Squid getting too big for its tentacles? That’s what value investor Michael Price thinks.
“Goldman should split up into three parts,” he said in an interview with Bloomberg TV. “They should have money management, trading and investment banking.”
“Investment banking requires little or no equity; money management little or no equity,” Price said. “They plow some equity into the trading business and spin off a big dividend.”
(See about 7 minutes into the interview for the Goldman Sachs discussion.)
“I think the stock would be $250 if they did that,” said Price, of MFP Investors. Goldman shares today are trading at $161.50 apiece, off 0.6% on the session and down about 4.4% this year.
…
“Should Goldman Sachs be broken up?”
Does a crab have a watertight a**hole?
Is a bear Catholic?
Where Home Prices Are Falling Dangerously
In a number of major American cities, housing prices have taken a sharp turn for the worse.
By Nathan Vardi, Forbes.com
Dec 13, 2010
Not long ago it looked like the housing market was on the mend in most major U.S. metropolitan areas. But now prices are falling fast again in many. Foreclosures and vacant homes lingering on the market are depressing prices, and the home buyer tax credit that expired in July is sorely missed.
“There is a large supply of houses on the market,” says David Blitzer, chair of the index committee at Standard & Poor’s. “And further, hidden supply due to delinquent mortgages, pending foreclosures or vacant homes.”
Dangerous for who?
The banks, serial refinancers, people who are trying to sell houses at bubble prices that were purchased in the mid 90`s and earlier or those who took the $8k home-buyer tax credit hook, line and sinker. Is there a GD robot like on Lost in Space saying Warning! Warning! Ben Bernanke home prices are falling dangerously. Danger! Danger! Print! Print! Reflate! Reflate! HAMP Does not compute! HAMP Does not compute! Where`s Judy? DON!!!!
http://realestate.yahoo.com/promo/where-home-prices-are-falling-dangerously.html - 53k
‘Dangerous for who’
The surest way to get people to read your financial article these days is to place in the title words like nightmarish, armageddon, apocalypse, etc.
The other easy way to draw in viewers/readers/listeners is to find a new angle (even if it is made up or overstated) to show bankers as villains and borrowers as victims.
I’m probably one of 6 people in the world who enjoys “Dan Rather Reports” on HDNet, but they had a good show on the HAMP fiasco this week. And yes, the two couples they showed on did make the lenders look much more like the villains (which they were). Worthwhile watching.
The scariest thing for me was the fact that one of the couples paid 590K for a crud-box home in fremont, CA. So borrowers were victims, yes, but stupid, yes.
“So borrowers were victims, yes, but stupid, yes.”
If greed is considered one of their emotions, I will buy that they were “victims” Because ignorance obviously was.
greed (grd)
n.
An excessive desire to acquire or possess more than what one needs or deserves, especially with respect to material wealth:
vic·tim /ˈvɪktɪm/ Show Spelled
[vik-tim]
–noun
1. a person who suffers from a destructive or injurious action or agency: a victim of an automobile accident.
2. a person who is deceived or cheated, as by his or her own emotions or ignorance, by the dishonesty of others, or by some impersonal agency: a victim of misplaced confidence; the victim of a swindler; a victim of an optical illusion.
How does a price fall dangerously? Is it like that refrigerator that just fell on a construction worker?
We should put put a “tipping danger” warning label on them!
“Dangerous for who?”
For everyone living in a net import economy that is dependant on every increasing debt. Rising house prices gave the little people that make the economy go, an asset to borrow against.
Without that, the debt can’t keep growing, little people can’t keep spending, and the economy is doomed.
It was a 10 year Bush tax cut that was due to expire .If a Politician only casts their vote to get re-elected than forget any kind of common sense prevailing Perhaps its time for term limits on all Politicians ,including only one term for a President .
Well - we do have term limits on presidents…
Another legacy of FDR.
Martha Mitchell’s idea was to change to one and only one six-year term for Presidents, so they wouldn’t spend time worrying about re-election.
That’s what they do in Mexico.
Someone asked how come I know so much about Mexico. Answer: I lived there 12 years.
Common Sense is neither common or sensical.
Slash the deficits, and crush the economy?
Don’t slash the deficits and let higher interest rates or skyrocketing inflation crush the economy?
Which of these is sensical or seen by everyone as the correct solution?
For 40 years we’ve been using ever increasing debt to pretend we don’t have to worry about the American worker being non-competative in a global labor market. That mechanism is kaput in that we’ve maxxed out the debt. We’re using mass government debt to pretend we’re not at the end of the rope…. but that too is temporary.
Eventually, we’re going to have to accept that our standard of living can’t be maintained. We can’t keep borrowing ourselves rich forever.
We can’t keep borrowing ourselves rich forever.
We can’t borrow ourselves rich but the rich can borrow us into poverty and become richer in the process.
Keep preaching it Darrell. You’ve been posting some good stuff the past few days…
“Eventually, we’re going to have to accept that our standard of living can’t be maintained.”
And until that time FBs will be holding, like a rabid chihuahua, onto the pant leg of perceived home prices.
The American worker has the highest productivity in the entire world, but with the least amount of time off and the worst medical benefits.
It isn’t a “productivity” issue.
“Eventually, we’re going to have to accept that our standard of living can’t be maintained.”
Who says we can’t? We can not only maintain it, but even improve it. But not with the rich acting like parasites instead of smart investors in their own country.
If the theory of income making America non-competitive is true, then why are the rich exempt? But that theory is proven false by the rising middle classes of the BRIC nations.
It was a 10 year Bush tax cut that was due to expire .If a Politician only casts their vote to get re-elected than forget any kind of common sense prevailing Perhaps its time for term limits on all Politicians ,including only one term for a President .
Term limits on laws, too. They should all expire automatically after 10 years.
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* New Reasons to Worry About Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs
* December 15, 2010, 9:29 AM ET
Stephen Colbert vs. Goldman Sachs Continues
By Shira Ovide
Stephen Colbert continues to make comedic hay at Goldman Sachs’s expense. Colbert has been holding hostage what he says is a misplaced credit card belonging to Buckley T. Ratchford, a partner at Goldman Sachs.
Colbert has promised to return the credit card if Ratchford appears on “the Colbert Report” to talk about Wall Street bonuses– not a welcoming invitation from a king of skewering politicos and bankers. Colbert vowed to reveal one number from the credit card each night until Ratchford agreed to an interview. (The first number was a “5.”)
Last night, Colbert made a show of reading an email he said was from the Goldman Sachs’s office of global security — “which I believe is a euphemism for assassination squad,” he said — to ask Colbert to return the credit card.
“I know when I’ve been beat,” Colbert conceded, and then made himself a copy of the credit card with one of those clackety carbon paper credit card copiers. “I don’t really need it anymore.”
Watch the Colbert segment:
The Colbert Report Mon - Thurs 11:30pm / 10:30c
Goldman Sachs Lawyers Want Buckley T. Ratchford’s Card Back
Don’t *all* mastercard numbers start with 5?
I believe they do. And, IIRC, Visa numbers start with 4.
Yes, the first 8 numbers or so are standard. First number is card type, then it gets into issuing bank. I met a kid once that could generate valid credit card numbers in his head.
AMEX are mod 7 if I remember correctly.
Whenever I need a good laugh I watch the Daily Show and the Colbert Report. Also a great place to get some news.
That is where my 20 something children get all of their news.
Price Inflation tame in November
Price inflation rose 0.1 percent in November. On an annualized basis that’s less than 2 percent and will encourage the Federal Reserve to keep on with its money inflating policy.
“Retailers such as Target Corp. and Wal-Mart Stores Inc. are discounting merchandise to stoke demand during the holiday shopping season as joblessness lingers near 10 percent. Limited inflation and a stagnant labor market underscore the Federal Reserve’s decision yesterday to stay the course as it pursues record monetary stimulus.”
Bloomberg News
Who cares about retailers. No matter what they say core inflation should show energy and food prices. (It used to) It really is coming true:
Everything you need is going to get more expensive
Everything you just want but dont need will get cheaper.
Yep……
I’ve heard the coined phrase, “bi-flation” describing this econmic trait. If you need it, bend over… But those 22″ sparkly rims on Craigslist are now $400 w/ new tires to boot.
I think it is the increase in the “everything you need” category that is driving the decrease in the “everything you just want but don’t need” category. A couple more years of this and the need category will suck up all of the free dollars for 90% or more of the population.
I know I’ll be looking at consuming less health insurance and care while my body becomes more decrepit. I’ll be looking at consuming cheaper and less food (less is probably a good thing as I age). I’ll be cutting frivolous car trips. And I’ll be downsizing my housing. And I am relatively well off.
I can’t find it now, but there was a story indicating that this season was following in the steps of the recent ones - starts with a bang at Thanksgiving but early December trails off. One stat was that last weekend was slower than the same weekend a year ago. (by .6% IIRC)
And yes, they blamed the weather.
IT IS STILL SNOWING IN Washington DC!!!
Where is the toilet paper?!?
They are closing schools early. Too weird.
(Actually I have plenty of toilet paper. There was a good sale at Giant a few weeks ago.)
They need some flinty Chicago toughness in that town.
Good snowplowing and a fleet of salt trucks would help D.C.
My grocery bill increased 50% this year. Home insuance is about to rise another 5%. Gas is up 20%. Those quants can stuff it where the sun don’t shine.
C’mon, you just need some hedonic substitution. Mac’n'cheese is cheap dude!
And make sure you substitute rancid grease for diesel fuel.
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* December 15, 2010, 9:01 AM ET
New Reasons to Worry About Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs
By Shira Ovide
And now for a little coal in investment banks’ Christmas stockings, courtesy of the wobbly debt markets.
Nomura today cut back fourth-quarter earnings estimates for Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley. The problems, say Nomura analyst Glenn Schorr, center around fixed income: investors pulling back because of sharp rate moves in the U.S., a pickup in bank hiring and risks of Europe and the U.S. municipal bond market blowing up.
…
Foreclosures drop as banks clean up robo-signing scandal ~ cnnmoney
The number of foreclosure notices filed in November plunged 21%, the biggest month-over-month drop ever recorded by RealtyTrac, the online foreclosure marketer. Filings fell 14% compared with November 2009.
The number of Americans who actually lost their homes to bank repossessions plummeted even more steeply — to 67,428. That was off a whopping 28% from 93,236 in October. Repossessions are down a third since September.
The drop in total filings, which include notices of default, scheduled auctions and repossessions, followed a 4% decline a month earlier. RealtyTrac CEO James Saccacio attributed the downtrend to fallout from the recent robo-signing controversy.
“[That] forced lenders and servicers to hit the pause button on many foreclosures while they scrambled to revamp their internal procedures and revise or resubmit questionable paperwork,” he said.
Rising long-term Treasury yields bode ill for Eddie’s hoped for year-end rocket ride to DJIA = 12K. And no one could have seen it coming!
Market Snapshot
Dec. 15, 2010, 5:07 p.m. EST
U.S. stocks falter as bond yields rise
By Kate Gibson, MarketWatch
NEW YORK (MarketWatch) — U.S. stocks ended lower Wednesday after inflationary concerns voiced in the bond market helped put a halt to the S&P 500 Index’s six straight sessions of gains.
Rising interest rates are “beginning to take the air out of the equity momentum,” said Peter Boockvar, equity strategist at Miller Tabak.
…
I bailed out of all my “quality” bond funds this week. Some times you just have to pull the plug and sit on the cash. All I have now for bond funds is JNK which my guess is less likely to be hit by interest rate increases.
“JNK”
As long as the economy actually recovers from here, it should be buffered going forward by a combination of lower default risk and narrowing spread over ‘quality’ bond funds.
500 pts to go on the DJIA to reach Eddie’s DJIA = 12K. With tax cuts in the bag, should be a piece of cake…
NC lottery sales down, may miss goal by $40M.
RALEIGH, N.C. — North Carolina lottery commissioners estimated Wednesday the program will earn $40 million less than expected in the current year because of weak ticket sales — another financial blow for a state education system already bracing for budget cuts.
The North Carolina Education Lottery Commission revised its sales estimate in approving a new budget. That plan projects the lottery will be able to provide about $402 million for state education programs for the financial year ending in the middle of 2011, well below the $441 million initially projected.
Lotto: A tax on people that are really bad at math.
10 million people put in $1 each. The winner gets $5 million, then after taxes gets to keep $3.5 million.
Actually, were the math is involved is the probability of winning. If the probability of winning is say 1 in 50,000,000 then you should only buy a lotto ticket when the after tax payout is greater than $50 million.
Works unless there are more winners than one.
FWIW, the probability of there being two winners would but much lower than 1 winner. Not sure how the “quick picks” are created, but if it is truly random then the probablity of a second matching ticket would be infintesimal, the same as winning the jackpot, so I’m guessing it would be (probaility of the chance of winning) to the second power.
Ignores the tax on the winnings.
To make it worth playing, the prize would have to be large enough for the after tax CASH (not amortized) prize to be larger than the odds of winning, adjusted for the odds of more than one winner.
So, if they are advertising a Power Ball jackpot of $95 million (as the most recent one was), you have to look at the cash prize of $49.9 million. Then adjust that $49.9 million down a good 35% for state and federal income taxes for a net of $32.4 million.
Odds of winning Power Ball are 1 in 195 million. With an average of 30 million tickets per drawing, there is a 1 in 7 chace any diving drawing will result in atleast 1 winner. Assuming your numbers are drawn, there is still a 1 in 7 chance of a second winner from the same drawing… well… infantesimally less, but that is in the rounding.
In actuality, when the prize gets large, ticket sales generally double making it more like 1 in 3 there will be another winner with you.
SO….. 1 in 195 million odds of winning.
Adjust up 33% to account for the risk of multiple winners = 259 million.
To net after tax winnings of $259, the pretax would have to be $398 million.
For pre-tax cash prize of $398, the pre-tax advertised jackpot would have to be $771 million.
The largest PowerBall jackpot ever was $365 million amortized, which they took the lump sum of $177 million. Well under half of what it would need to be to make it worth buying a ticket.
As I said, Lotto: a tax on people that are really bad at math.
Dude……
I’ll bet you’re the kind of guy that says generic beer is better than Leinenkugel’s, because it’s cheaper.
Or told his wife he got married to her, because she was cheaper than continuing to hire hookers.
People do a lot of things that don’t make sense mathematically.
If I buy one Lotto each week for one dollar, I’ve spent a whopping $50 the whole year.
Fifty. Bucks.
Big. Deal.
I may never hit the Lotto (in fact, probably not) but if I do… I would have to play for 40,000 years before just wining the min (2MIL where I live) would not pay for itself.
Oops. 52. I was confused about the 56 states.
So that changes it to 38,000 years.
Based on my experience flipping coins with my sister as a child, if the odds were 50-50, I would probably still lose.
I occasionally play, even though I know the odds. For me, it is a what if exercise. What would I do if I won? Why am I not doing it now?
UAE hotel erects 11-million-dollar Christmas tree
Christmas came in extravagant fashion to the Muslim desert emirate of Abu Dhabi as a glitzy hotel unveiled a bejewelled Christmas tree valued at more than 11 million dollars on Wednesday.
It is the “most expensive Christmas tree ever,” with a “value of over 11 million dollars,” said Hans Olbertz, general manager of Emirates Palace hotel, at its inauguration.
The 13-metre (40-foot) faux evergreen, located in the gold leaf-bedecked rotunda of the hotel, is decorated with silver and gold bows, ball-shaped ornaments and small white lights.
But the necklaces, earrings and other jewellery draped around the tree’s branches are what give it a record value.
It holds a total of 181 diamonds, pearls, emeralds, sapphires and other precious stones, said Khalifa Khouri, owner of Style Gallery, which provided the jewellery.
“The tree itself is about 10,000 dollars,” Olbertz said. “The jewellery has a value of over 11 million dollars — I think 11.4, 11.5.”
“Probably, this will be another” Dubai entry into the Guinness book of world records, Olbertz said, adding that Emirates Palace planned to contact the organisation about the tree which is to stay until the end of the year.
How long until the Islamic fundamentalists put an end to this decidant Western invasion of thier area of the world?
How about -
Saudi Arabia - Conversion by a Muslim to another religion is punishable by death. Bibles are illegal. Churches are illegal. Easter celebrations are illegal. It is punishable by death for a non-mulsim to enter the “holy” muslim cities of Medina and Mecca.
FWIW, its their country. I find their way of life despicable, but I also think that we should stay out and mind our own business unless they become a direct threat to us.
15 out of the 19 9/11 hijackers/terrorists were Saudis.
And all were from middle class to rich families.
Were they acting on behalf of the Saudi government? IIRC they were working Al Qaeda, which was based in Afghanistan.
Interestingly, I have been in churches in Iran. Very grand ones. There is a story of a Shah in the 1600’s who married a Christian woman and rather than kill all of the Christians as he was advised, instead moved all her people to the town of Isfahan and built them a beautiful church.
probably happened on Purim
http://www.empireofthekop.com/anfield/wp-content/uploads/2009/10/bush-saudi-king-3.jpg
UAE hotel erects 11-million-dollar Christmas tree
Jesus must be so proud.
…a glitzy hotel unveiled a bejewelled Christmas tree valued at more than 11 million dollars on Wednesday.
Sweet baby Muhammed!
Well, if Anthony says so it must time to buy.
Why it’s safe to buy homes again
By Anthony Mirhaydari
MSN Money
Why it’s time to buy
Basically, the bull’s case as outlined by Ackman can be boiled down to a few simple bullet points:
Home prices are at their lowest valuation in at least a generation.
A large number of forced sellers gives buyers negotiating power.
Attractive, low-rate financing.
Still favorable long-term supply dynamics as the U.S. has one of the best demographic outlooks in the developed world.
Housing is an out-of-consensus idea that is under-owned by institutional investors.
The most important factor is affordability.
Continued: Don’t fear the ’shadow’ inventory
http://articles.moneycentral.msn.com/Investing/FindHotStocks/why-it-is-safe-to-buy-homes-again-mirhaydari.aspx
Counter arguments:
1) House prices were too high for a generation, so being the lowest in a generation is not impressive.
2) Sellers aren’t going away, so bargaining power will continue.
3) Low rate financing means price is still to high. Lock in a high price at low rate, you can only be hurt by rising rates and falling prices. Wait until rates increase and prices fall, then you can only be helped by falling rates.
4) There are still too many houses, and the demographics look as if that oversupply is only going to get worse. Baby boomers reacing retirement age are going to be looking to downsize faster than todays jobless youth can absorb those jobs. Imagine how many will have to downsize and/or cohabitate with children when we’re forced to slash SS and MC spending 30-50%.
5) Housing is under owned by institutional investors becuase they are money pits. Taxes, repairs, maintenance, deadbeats, vandals…. Add on the loads (closing and realt-ho costs coming and going). Horrid investment and the smart money knows it.
6) Affordability,only if you ignore repair and maintenance costs.
Counter argument:
7) Fear the ’shadow’ inventory.
Expecting today’s Western leaders to run fiscal surpluses is like expecting dogs to stockpile sausages”.
Loved this one
There are a few places still left with fiscal sanity in the west.
Sweden, New Zealand, Luxemburg, Panama, Costa Rico, some South American countries and a bunch of Caribbean island nations basically have zero budget deficits
FYI - Alaska (under the evil and wicked Sarah Palin) actually ran large surpluses
“FYI - Alaska (under the evil and wicked Sarah Palin) actually ran large surpluses”
Oh, if only every state had massive oil reserves and a tiny population. The surplusses had FAR more to do with the oil bubble that occured just before the 2008 market collapse, than her managerial abilities.
than her managerial abilities ??
Well, she “managed” to quit….
FYI - Alaska (under the evil and wicked Sarah Palin) actually ran large surpluses
Don’t all Alaska residents get a check every year from the oil companies?
Yes, they do, lavi. Those checks come from the AK Permanent Fund.
The U.S. economic recovery is gaining strength — even in housing!
market pulse
Dec. 16, 2010, 8:30 a.m. EST
U.S. housing starts rise 3.9% in November
By Ruth Mantell
WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) — Construction of new U.S. homes rose 3.9% to a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 555,000 in November, the Commerce Department reported Thursday. The November rate matched forecasts from analysts polled by MarketWatch.
…
Seasonal adjustment assumes a normal market. If we’re not in a normal market, then seasonal adjustment can cause skewed data.
Banks Push Fed to Curb Borrowers’ Right to Rescind Mortgages
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-12-16/fed-mortgage-recission-plan-sparks-fight-between-lenders-consumer-groups.html
(PB-If you’ve posted this yesterday, pls accept my apology.)
Does the FED really have the power to write law??
Apparently they don’t feel beholden to it; not sure about whether they believe they can write their own laws or not, though. Does financially innovative Fed action create legal precedent? I suspect it does, but I am quite obviously not a legal scholar.
Julian Assange: Readers’ Choice for TIME’s Person of the Year 2010
By: Megan Friedman (3 days ago)
WikiLeaks founder Assange holds news conference at the Geneva Press Club in Geneva
REUTERS/Valentin Flauraud
The man behind WikiLeaks has won the most votes in this year’s Person of the Year poll.
Readers voted a total of 1,249,425 times, and the favorite was clear. Julian Assange raked in 382,020 votes, giving him an easy first place. He was 148,383 votes over the silver medalist, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Prime Minister of Turkey.
…
MarketWatch First Take
Dec. 15, 2010, 1:13 p.m. EST
Time picks Zuckerberg over Assange
Commentary: Hopes feel-good story sells more magazines
By MarketWatch
SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) — Do we really need yet another fawning profile of Facebook co-founder Mark Zuckerberg?
…
I don’t know why anyone reports this as a story. It’s a MARKETING GIMICK to sell more magazines. That’s it! Nothing more.
I can’t remember the last time I purchased a magazine.
Same here. I read ‘em at the library.
What’s worse, I have worked for two magazines and an academic journal.
You actually read that rag?
Zuckerman came in 10th in the Readers’ Poll which indicates just how much these magazines have their finger on the pulse of the nation.
And they wonder why they’re losing readership.
Long live habeas corpus!
WikiLeaks Founder Assange To Go Free
by NPR Staff and Wires
Julian Assange
Leon Neal/AFP/Getty Images
Wikileaks founder Julian Assange is led into London’s High Court on December 16, 2010.
December 16, 2010
WikiLeaks founder Julian Assange will be freed while he awaits an extradition hearing, a British judge ruled Thursday, rejecting an appeal from prosecutors seeking to overturn his bail. The former hacker is wanted in Sweden for questioning in a sex-crimes investigation.
The hearing marked Assange’s third court appearance since he surrendered to Scotland Yard on Dec. 7 and was locked up in London’s Wandsworth prison. Scores of reporters filled the wood-paneled courtroom and public gallery of the British High Court, along with teams of lawyers, Assange’s supporters and his mother, Christine Assange.
The 39-year-old Australian, wearing a dark gray suit, stood in the courtroom dock as Judge Duncan Ouseley heard the appeal to rescind his conditional release on $316,000 bail. Prosecutors had sought to keep Assange behind bars until a scheduled hearing in January over his possible extradition to Sweden, which he has vowed to fight.
Assange “clearly does have some desire to clear his name because if he were not to do so, the allegations would always be hanging over him,” the judge said during the hearing.
…
* HEALTH INDUSTRY
* DECEMBER 12, 2010
Time for Bank of America to Split Into Smaller Parts
U.S. banking deregulation that started in the 1990s paved the way for Bank of America to cobble together its financial-services empire. The bank has acquired dozens of companies since then for more than $260 billion. With its stock now worth less than half of that, Bank of America needs to admit its failures and break itself up.
…
* REAL ESTATE
* DECEMBER 15, 2010
Bank of America in Settlement Talks Over Mortgages
By DAN FITZPATRICK
Bank of America Corp., after vowing to fight requests that it repurchase certain loans, has begun potential settlement discussions with some of its largest mortgage investors.
The 17-member group now in talks with the nation’s largest bank as measured by assets includes the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, government-owned mortgage company Freddie Mac, BlackRock Inc., and Allianz SE’s Pacific Investment Management Co., or Pimco.
The bank’s approach with this group appears to signal a change in tone for Chief Executive Brian Moynihan, who in November pledged to engage in “day-to-day, hand-to-hand combat” on investor requests to repurchase flawed mortgages made before the U.S. housing collapse.
…
“If America should be permitted to prosecute a non-American like Assange for disclosing American secrets, countries like France, China, or Iran should be able to prosecute Americans for disclosing their secrets”
http://opiniojuris.org/2010/12/14/rare-honesty-about-wikileaks-and-american-exceptionalism/
They do. It’s called espionage, and yes Eric Holder is looking at it.
France isn’t even prosecuting the US for kidnapping and torturing French residents.
If an American does it, it’s treason.
If a foreigner does it, it’s espionage.
I thought that betraying the USA will simply a case of “free market capitalism”?
…for disclosing American secrets
“This is a part of the story that isn’t getting much coverage. While most of the news reports have said that Wikileaks published over 250,000 such cables, that’s not exactly true. It has over 250,000 such cables and appears to have passed them on to its media partners, but it’s slowly releasing specific cables — with redactions — and mostly after the press partners are releasing those same cables. In other words, it appears that Wikileaks is actually being judicious and discriminating in what it’s releasing. Or, you could say (and probably should say) that Wikileaks is actually doing much of what a journalist would do in selecting which documents to pass along at this time.”
How the Press Misleads About Wikileaks
Infotainment has nothing to do with factual reporting.
And infotainment is what most people think is the news.
(Hey look, an academic paper has been published which confirms what has been discussed on the HBB forever:)
The Next Housing Bubble - Is This the Perfect Storm?
“Sales of existing homes make up 85 percent of the homes sold today. Senior citizens are by and large the suppliers to the housing market as they downsize, move into senior’s residences or pass away. Those over 65 years are proportionately more likely to own their own homes in comparison to younger adults so they are more likely to have houses to sell. The first baby boomers are slated to reach their retirement years at the age of 65 in 2011 and the last will pass through the “gate” to seniorhood in 2029 so it seems likely that the effects of this demographic change on the real estate market will be seen sooner rather than later. As well, a decrease in the number of younger, first-time home buyers means that the housing market will feel additional stress from shrinking demand at the same time as it faces rapidly growing supply. This does not bode well for prices since the supply of available housing will be increasing at the same time as the demand for that housing is decreasing.”
Senior citizens are by and large the suppliers to the housing market as they downsize, move into senior’s residences or pass away.
Tell me about it. Speaking as the offspring of two such seniors, I’ll be looking at having to sell their house (which I grew up in) within the next five years.
I’m of the mind that, when the time comes, I should just put it on the market, sell it for what the market will bear, and be done with it. If the place needs any sort of remodeling/updating, I’ll let the next owner do it.
Same here. Except both my parents have 2 different prices in mind.
Guess I’ll just have to see who goes first.
Right. And lots of urban condos were built on the anticipation that empty nesters would want to downsize to a more convenient lifestyle. But many of those who wanted to couldn’t sell their suburban homes. The urban condos are being rented to the young instead.
Also, who in their right mind would pay a +/- quarter million for a condo when the house is already paid off?
Now, what happens is austarity comes to the USA? What if Social Security is cut 30+% at the same time there is a cost shift from seniors paying 20% of their healthcare costs, to them paying 40% becuase of Medicare cuts?
What if all these seniors are forced to move in with family or into tiny, run-down, slum apartments?
I just read a real estate periodical about this steep Economic Depression (oops, too honest) and how the unemployment and underemployment is going to be the death of the move-up housing market in Ca. IIMB(it is my belief) that McCr*pboxes are going to be out of style. They can take their HOA’s with them.
Austerity is ALREADY HERE for millions. 10s of millions.
What if all these seniors are forced to move in with family or into tiny, run-down, slum apartments?
Move to Brazil?
Not sure where I want to be whe I am older. But I don’t want to live among people older than me complaining and being grumpy all the time. Somehow I think experts in youthfulness, such as Javk LaLanne, would agree. Attitude plays a big role in longevity. I am some California college town. And work on a bachelor degree in my 80s.
I will probably give money away to help college students through school.
Do you think Ireland is rethinking it’s plan? Rise up Ireland and tell the banks to suck on a rock.
Its government has agreed to pay back the estimated 4bn euros (£3.4bn; $5.3bn) the UK and Dutch governments spent reimbursing citizens who lost money in the collapse of Icesave.
Repayments will begin in 2016 and will be completed by 2046.
The terms of the agreement must now be approved by Iceland’s parliament and president.
The UK Treasury welcomed the deal.
“Mutually satisfactory closure of this issue will mark a new chapter in UK-Iceland relations,” it said.
The UK recently changed its stance over Iceland’s wish to join the European Union and stopped opposing the plan.
Speaking before the agreement was announced, the Chancellor, George Osborne, said he thought this had had a big influence on the decision.
“I think this has led to a much more constructive relationship between the Icelandic government and the British Government, which was pretty glacial, frankly,” he said.
Two years
Representatives of the three countries met in London to agree the final terms of a deal.
Negotiations over the repayments have been going on for the past two years, since Icesave’s parent company, Landsbanki, collapsed at the end of 2008.
Iceland will pay an interest rate on its outstanding debt of 3% to the Dutch and 3.3% to the UK from 2011.
Those terms are better than a previous deal, subsequently voted down by Icelandic voters in a referendum, which included an interest rate of 5.5%.
Are you talking Iceland or Ireland?
Both are islands but in different places.
Now you see why Churchill demanded the spelling “Iceland(C)” and “Ireland(R)” during the war to prevent confusion.
Iceland told the banks to jump off a cliff, the result the interest rate they are being asked to pay fell from 5.5% to 3% and they don’t have to start paying for 6 years. Note Icelandic voters might tell European banks to again jump off a cliff.
Ireland caved right away and they will be paying 5.8%.
And they have 6 years to change thier minds!!
Really? Are you *sure* Ireland and Iceland are in two different places?
Step4me was a blog rocket surgeon. You’re another.
I think Ireland is paying 5.8% vs Icelands 3%.
While Iceland is small, you would still have to ship troops a good distance to it to back up your demands.
With Ireland, you just drive up the M6 and hop a ferry. Much easier to move troops.
I think I’ve finally found a place where housing is cheap.
Africa.
Makes Detroit look nice. I’ll be here for another 3 days.
Now back to your regularly scheduled programing.
P.S. I believe the Realtors here are liars but they carry spears. Not sure how to deal with that.
homes are cheap where local govts havent set high extorsion fees to build.
homes are cheap where local govts havent set high extorsion fees to build ??
You got that right…Got to fund those salaries and pensions ya know….I will be making a application tomorrow for a lot split…The application “fee” is $5,750….
This is just too sweet.
Gov.-elect Brown’s banker sister moving to avoid possible conflict. Guess what she works for the Vampire Squid.
So the election was Vampire Squid minion #1 vs Vampire Squid minion #2. Great looks like we dodged a bullet??
“Guess what she works for the Vampire Squid.”
OMG — it’s tentacles are everywhere.
Cults can be small or large, but they usually share a tendency to remain whisper quite & perhaps a tad,…secretive.
GoldenmanSucks Inc. (SCOTUS person) = “TrueFinancialCult™” / “TrueSerialLiquiditist™”
Dozens of Tulsa families are about to be homeless for the holidays. The owner of an East Tulsa complex has not paid a $79,000 water bill, but it’s the residents who will pay the price.
Residents at the Somerset Apartments were told Wednesday that their water will be shut off Thursday and they will have ten days to get out.
http://www.newson6.com/Global/story.asp?S=13681377
Again, what’s the first rule of ruling?
The traditional silver take downs perpetuated by the banks is just not working anymore making it difficult for me to buy silver the principals.
I have grown accustomed to the smack down manipulation and how to predict the big down moves at which point big buys are made.
All down moves(now super short term) are now allowed to happen allowing the Asians to immediately swoop in for cheap silver.
$20 to 24 per ounce is my target unless data changes.
Dec. 16, 2010, 11:32 a.m. EST
Geithner: Only TARP costs will be from housing
TARP panel: Treasury effort to help troubled borrowers has largely failed
By Ronald D. Orol, MarketWatch
WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) — The final cost of the much maligned $700 billion Troubled Asset Relief Program is expected to be no greater than the amount spent on the program’s housing initiatives, said Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner on Thursday.
“The remainder of the investment programs under TARP – in banks, AIG, credit markets, and the auto industry – will likely, in the aggregate, ultimately yield a positive return for taxpayers,” Geithner said, testifying before a Congressional Oversight Panel hearing on the bailout.
…
The program didn’t fail the participants… they got to live rent free another 6-12 months, which is exactly what most of them were looking for.
And there’s anecdotal evidence that recent increases in consumer spending have been partially driven by non-payment of mortgages.
Forclosures down, holiday spending up… yeah.
Wait until the robo-signing issue has passed and foreclosures skyrocket again and people are forced to actually pay rent. Buh bye consumer spending.
Don’t buy now, as mortgage rates will go much lower again with the next leg down in the stock market. By contrast, if you have some money parked in bond funds and other money in stock funds, a reallocation from stocks to bonds is not a bad move at this point.
Mortgage rates rise again
The 30-year fixed rate hits a seven-month high.
Yes, why not buy bonds when interest rates are still near generation lows and money printing is in overdrive? Capital losses are so helpful in reducing taxes!
Comment by combotechie
“Money accumulates into ‘the hands of the few’ because the poor and middle class who are broke are broke because they spend every dollar they can get their hands on.”
Wrong. Money accumulates into the hands of the few because in a CAPITAList economy, it takes money to make real money.
The rich didn’t get rich DESPITE the poor being willing to spend more than they make. The rich got rich BECAUSE the poor were willing to spend more than they make.
Money is a promise to pay back. Money is created when people take out a loan. The government did everything it could to ensure that the poor could get loans, so they could and would spend more than they make. This is what caused all the money creation of the last 40 years as jobs flowed out of the USA in search of cheaper global assets.
The rich got richer because the poor were given access to debt and encouraged to spend. Without all that debt, we never would have gotten out of the 1970s stagflation.
Now, when it is clear most of that debt won’t/can’t be repaid, the government steps in and makes sure the rich can stay rich even though all the “money” is little more that a lie of future repayment.
They insure the debt, they buy the debt, they “ease” FASB157 that had been forcing people to tell the truth about the value of the debt…
When it becomes clear that people can no longer continue to spend 110% of their income, as needed for the met import economy to function, the government steps up and spends 180% of its income to keep the debt flowing.
Without the poor having access to debt, there would not have been an economy for the rich to get rich off of.
What we need is for the debt to go away, and since that debt is the rich peoples’ money, that money needs to go away too.
That is exactly the conclusion I have come to.
A graph of the share of national income accruing to the top one percent is nearly identical to a graph of total credit market debt as a share of GDP.
Both peaked in the 1920s, fell in the depression, stayed low until the “Greed is Good” era kicked in, and have since collapsed.
I mean have since soared.
does taxing the rich more make that money go away?
i don’t think so…we should have let them fail.
Taxing the rich can keep the money moving. Tax the rich, give the money to Social Security recepiants, the poor, use it to cover middle class tax cuts… at least the money is moving and keeping the economy going.
Let all the money pool at the top, and once everyone is maxxed on debt the economy stops.
‘Taxing the rich can keep the money moving…Let all the money pool at the top, and once everyone is maxxed on debt the economy stops.’
And one could respond that once the rich are out of money (or they leave, go off-shore, etc), this arrangement stops. These choices are an example of the zero sum fallacy.
A system can be devised that allows the profit motive to function and living wages to be retained. (We did this for many decades, BTW).
And one could respond that once the rich are out of money (or they leave, go off-shore, etc), this arrangement stops
We are so far from the rich being out of money it’s not even funny. The top pay effective tax rates of 16%. Their tax burden is lower than mine. I’d be happy if they just paid the same rate I pay. How is it that AMT hits income but not dividend and capital gains. I say add dividend and capital gains to AMT then we will get somewhere.
i would prefer to have my rate reduced to 16% but if not…warren buffet’s dividends should be taxed at 35% like my wages are and not 15%.
I agree with you Ben.
“And one could respond that once the rich are out of money ”
The rich wont’ run out of money as the money will flow through the economy back to “the rich”. Sure, it may not be the same exact people, but someone is going to get the money.
“These choices are an example of the zero sum fallacy.”
But when considering the situation, be sure to include the reality that one person’s money is another person’s debt. Money is created when someone takes out a loan. If the people that would take out a loan are maxxed out on debt and can’t continue to spend 110% of their income forever, then we are maxxed on money.
Personally, I think we’ve maxxed out debt, meaning we’ve maxxed out the money supply. Sure, the governemtn can keep spending 180% of its income a couple more years. Sure, the Fed can buy government debt and create new money, but we still have to pay interest on that debt putting a burden on the economy and making it harder to service other debts.
What we need is for a lot of the debt to go away, and for that to happen, the money that it represents also has to go away. If/when that happens a lot of people that think they are rich, are actually going to find out they are not.
We need to force banks to write down their bad debts. Sure, that will make them insolvant, wipe out the bond and stock holders, feeding back into more defaults, downgrades, etc. BUT, that is the only way to bring down the debt load.
We need to speed the foreclosure process. We need to force banks, SIVs and bond holders to write down the losses.
We need to tighten lending, not look for new ways to loan money to people that can’t pay it back.
We need…… we need to let the debt collapse, let the money go away, and start back over from scratch.
If we’re not going to that, then we need to tax the money away from the rich and get it into the hands of the people that will spend it to keep the economy functioning without constantly adding more debt/money to it.
May I summarize?
Poof!
Since when did the poor have a choice? Or the middle class for that matter?
Wages HAVE NOT kept up with inflation for the last 30 years. Nor has job creation kept up with increased population.
What we need is for the debt to go away, and since that debt is the rich peoples’ money, that money needs to go away too.”
I think long term the government will Devaluate the currency that the debt is to be repaid in. which is taking the wealth away from all who work and get paid in that currency and giving it up to pay debt. All all who save up that currency.
If I get paid in dollars I kinda like the dollar to be worth alot.
So I guess we will pay back the debt one way or another.
Very important update:
I’m swamped today (and it feels like a swamp here) but I needed to tell you that I just found sauerkraut in a store in Rio. You have to go to a big supermarket to find it. It’s about $5 a pound- about the same price as a good cut of beef. I didn’t buy it because I make my own now for about 50 cents a pound.
Rio
When you have time, can you update me in on the economy there?
delete “”in” -hurry
When you have time, can you update me in on the economy there?
Roughly speaking: Better than the USA in most areas but also considering that Brazil is a developing country and the USA is an advanced country economically.
On a Macro level, I’ve seen Brazil will have grown between 6-9% in 2010. (Above predictions)
Inflation is running above target and is maybe 5-6%. (Thanks Ben Bernankel.)
In general, people are doing better now than 2 years ago and 10 years ago. The 2008 slowdown hit Brazil for only about 8 months, then it was back to “normal”. Things are expensive in Rio and Sao Paulo.
The lower middle class is growing quickly and the Middle class is holding their own pretty well. The rich? Well hey, they’re very rich and that ain’t gonna change.
Home prices in Rio are very high but they have been for 20 years and maybe more.
Brazil is 2 countries in one, A developing 3rd world country living side by side with a 1st world country. Both of those countries are doing pretty well right now. Saurekraut is $5 a pound but I know where you can get a real EKG for $150.
Hey, I’d love to visit Brazil but am afraid of being mugged or killed (and I’m from Brooklyn). Is it as bad as they say?
I would enjoy it also WT….
Hey, I’d love to visit Brazil but am afraid of being mugged or killed (and I’m from Brooklyn). Is it as bad as they say?
I would say no but that is a tough one to answer because the danger levels are so different in different parts of Brazil. Even in “dangerous” Rio, if you know where to go and don’t do unwise things you will be fine. Millions of tourists come here every year and have no problems. Some get robbed but very, very few are ever killed. It’s bad for tourism. And they don’t want to kill you. They just might like your watch. But if they want it, give it to them quickly. I’ve never been robbed. (as I knock on wood).
But I would say one thing. If you guys ever go to Brazil, you have to see Rio de Janeiro. If you’re concerned, spend the extra money and stay in Ipanema or Leblon. (the rich, safer parts of Rio)
I watched the 60 minutes segment on Brazil this week and thought it was good. It nicely illustrated a lot of the things that Rio has brought up here. Hopefully when they get a new president (s)he will avoid doing anything that screws it up. The current guy seemed good.
Rio
Thank you. I appreciated your thoughts, experience, and time. I’m thinking of visiting next year.
OK, let’s leverage this sucka.
HBB Road Trip to Brazil!!!
I’m game, as long as we try to live like locals. AKA, no $200 a night HO-tels or $4 coffees or whatever. I’m in it fer the culcha. Also I want to buy a bugout place. Maybe.
Rio, how are the gun laws in Brazil?
Rio
Thank you. I appreciated your thoughts, experience, and time. I’m thinking of visiting next year.
You’re welcome. Let me know if you guys come down. Maybe we can have the first Rio HBB meeting.
The tip of the iceberg is starting to show, with BofA apparently in talks to purchase back at par some of those not-properly-transferred mortgages from the MBS trusts.
The group discussing a possible settlement with the nation’s largest bank as measured by assets includes the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, government-owned mortgage company Freddie Mac, Blackrock Inc. and Allianz SE’s Pacific Investment Management Co., or Pimco…
http://blogs.wsj.com/marketbeat/2010/12/15/bank-of-america-not-talking-so-tough-now/
The tip of the iceberg is starting to show…
Recall from the history of the Titanic sinking that it isn’t what you see that sinks you. It’s the part of the iceberg that’s under water.
“includes the Federal Reserve Bank of New York”
What possible interest could the FRB-NY have in these settlement talks??? They weren’t buying BofA’s cr*p-sandwiches, were they?
Interesting stuff.
It’s really bad when your opposing party in civil suits has the power of criminal subpeona over you.
The Fed and Freddie Mac may also be able to out-lawyer BofA.
I’m guessing Timmay’s former employer may be involved in a coordinated effort to withhold housing supply from local MLS’s, in a futile attempt to pass on housing-related Wall Street gambling losses to unsuspecting consumers. But it won’t work, as there are almost no qualified and interested buyers…
Mortgage Rates Spike, With 30-Year at 4.83%
Surging Treasury yields continue to drag mortgage rates higher, keeping pressure on the housing market.
The average rate on a 30-year, fixed-rate mortgage hit 4.83% in the week ending Thursday, the highest since May, according to Freddie Mac’s weekly survey of mortgage rates.
Thanks Brett, Eco, and Ben for responding yesterday to my queries about Austin. Great advice and we will take it!
To Muggy: Yes, my situation was confusing to me also until I figured out what was going on. It all started after I got tenure, and my hiring principal left. The new principal openly declared her love for young teachers, and proceeded with a campaign against the older teachers (I was in my 40s at the time.) Many of the older teachers left, and finally it became unbearable for me to stay. I thought this attitude was isolated, but it was not. Everywhere I tried to teach, there was someone younger and cheaper ready to replace me, so I wasn’t valued or treated well, financially or otherwise (I know, true of all workers, not just teachers.) Finally, I had changed jobs too often, and was unemployable in teaching. So I researched stability in careers, zoomed in on healthcare, retrained and finally graduated in June. So far, so good, although I dread a flood of younger and/or imported competition.
The real threat is austarity. When it comes to the US, it will hit Medicare and Medicaid spending HARD.
Already happening
Article the other day on Arizona saying no to transplants and much much more.
Of course all the decisions will be based on dollars and little on efficacy and total cost to the system. This will end badly. We will continue to spend more than other countries with single payer systems but we will have worse outcomes overall.
“The new principal openly declared her love for young teachers, and proceeded with a campaign against the older teachers (I was in my 40s at the time.) Many of the older teachers left, and finally it became unbearable for me to stay. ”
I’m not making any judgments about your choice, but you could have fought this like hell, made massive noise, and gotten her off your case.
What state was this in? In a state like NY, the union would have your back. In a state like Florida, you document of all this, make written complaints to the school board, and then take it to the media.
Was this Georgia our South Carolina?
I would also guess that this happened in a smaller district in which the super and principals are tight. In large districts the HR liability is too great for nonsense like that.
While age discrimination (like other labor violations) can be fought and even won, you had better be prepared for a fight that lasts YEARS.
American Just-Us at it’s finest.
My friend’s father told Kodak he’d sue their nuts off (his words) for age discrimination when they tried to downsize him in the 90’s . He worked for two more years and then retired when he was ready.
The only reason my dad retired on his own terms is because he outselled the young guys buy enough to make up for any salary difference.
I am very sensitive to ageism; it really pisses me off. The best physics teacher I work with carries Nitroglycerin spray in his pocket and will no doubt die in the saddle (by his own decree). He’s a treasure and if his age ever came up, I’d go Wu-Tang on admin.
During previous cycles, static wages had been replaced to an extent by borrowing, particularly among low earners, Mr. Sawyer said. Now, that avenue is largely closed.
Looking ahead, if static wages combine with expected increases in the prices of energy and commodities, the result will be a further decrease in purchasing power and a possible rise in social tensions, he said.
The study did not delve too deeply into the correlation between prices and wages in many countries because of the huge variations in national data.
But it noted that in four Western countries — Britain, Canada, Germany and the United States — inflation outstripped nominal wage growth in 2008, mainly because of the increase in oil prices that year. Thereafter, sharp declines in inflation prevented a decline in real wages in 2009.
finance.yahoo.com/news/Wage-Growth-Slows-in-Western-nytimes-3278536790.html?x=0&sec=topStories&pos=1&asset=&ccode=
Then throw in higher fees, fewer services, increased local taxes, a higher share of health care costs and food and fuel inflation. Now you see where the middle class is headed, straight down.
Still seems like they don’t fully get it. In previous cycles, access to debt replaced static wages… Sure, but the only reason it was a “cycle” and not a structural dead end was because of the debt.
If not for access to debt being given to the poor and middle class, we’d still be in the 1970s stagflation.
Ever increasing debt is the ONLY thing that has maintained our economy for the last 40 years. Now that we’re maxxed out on debt, we truely are at a structural dead end. Everyone is acting as if this is just another cycle. It isn’t. As more and more jobs were outsourced and we became a net import nation, access to debt was used to replace wages as a means of maintaining out standard of living.
Since money is debt, this resulted in a large increase in the money heald by a select few, who used that money to create asset price bubbles.
When it became clear that much of that debt was not going to repaid, the money should have gone away. However, the governments and central bankers stepped up to make sure the money doesn’t go away. Someone owes the rich people all the money the poor and middle class borrowed, but it isn’t going to be the poor and middle class since they can’t possibly pay it all back.
We’re in the eye of the storm where massive government deficits have replaced massive household and business borrowing as the source of new debt needed to keep our net-import, debt-based economy functioning. At best that can only last a couple more years.
“Everyone is acting as if this is just another cycle.”
When I remind people that we aren’t in a cycle and that things won’t be “bouncing back” next quarter, etc. I get glares.
“Someone owes the rich people all the money the poor and middle class borrowed, but it isn’t going to be the poor and middle class since they can’t possibly pay it all back.”
Personal (I refuse to call them “consumer BK’s) BK’s are back to record levels in spite of all the BK reform.
Personal (I refuse to call them “consumer BK’s) BK’s are back to record levels in spite of all the BK reform.
I think reform was only good for the banks while people still had jobs. Once you’re below median income, Chapter 7 is still accessible.
‘money is debt, this resulted in a large increase in the money heald by a select few, who used that money to create asset price bubbles.’
So the millions of people who took out loans and bought houses on speculation, etc, didn’t have a hand in the housing bubble?
‘When it became clear that much of that debt was not going to repaid, the money should have gone away. However, the governments and central bankers stepped up to make sure the money doesn’t go away’
Millions of borrowers have walked away from their home loans.
‘We’re in the eye of the storm where massive government deficits have replaced massive household and business borrowing as the source of new debt’
Massive govt debts have been the norm since the 80’s, at least.
Did someone say “voodoo economics?”
My 12yo niece could tell you that if one trend is going down and another is going up, but they are both dependent on both going up, there is going to be trouble.
She doesn’t even have an MBA or Phd, so she must be some kind of super genius!
Banks Push Fed to Curb Borrowers’ Right to Rescind Mortgages
By Carter Dougherty -
Dec 16, 2010 12:01 AM ET
Mortgage firms are pressing the Federal Reserve to curb homeowners’ right to invalidate loans based on flawed documents — a right consumer groups say is one of the few weapons borrowers have to battle unfair lending.
Borrowers usually exercise the right of rescission during a foreclosure or other legal proceedings, effectively forcing a loan modification. The borrower seeks a new lender, the original lender returns interest and fees, and the principal is repaid by the second lender.
“It is ultimately the biggest hammer in the toolkit for a lawyer helping someone to save their home,” said Ira Rheingold, executive director of the National Association of Consumer Advocates.
The Fed issued the proposed regulation on Sept. 24 as part of an update of truth-in-lending rules, and asked for public comment by Dec. 23. The Fed filing said the new rules are part of an ongoing review of truth-in-lending rules that has been proceeding for years, and would “reduce uncertainty and litigation costs.”
“The Board does not believe that Congress intended for the creditor to lose its status as a secured creditor if the consumer does not return the loan balance,” the Fed wrote.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-12-16/fed-mortgage-recission-plan-sparks-fight-between-lenders-consumer-groups.html - -
green shoots?
I heard some guru on tv this afternoon talking about DOW 100k.They will say anything to steal your money .
What is unfair about making someone pay back the money that they borrowed?
It’s unfair when the bankruptcy laws are discriminatory. Banks and other corp’s often don’t have to pay their debts.
I’m going out on a limb here, and guessing that if a bank’s debts are unrepaid but the opposing party’s paperwork is not in order, the debt will often continue to go unrepaid.
Why should different (discriminatory) rules apply to households than to banks?
Consumer spending is up. Who would’ve thunked it, this being the Christmas season and all.
Foreclosures at lowest level in 5 years, headline at cnbc:
http://www.cnbc.com/id/40681328
Who would have thunk?Amazing , what happened to all those foreclosures?they mysterically vanished.
Dec. 16, 2010, 3:07 p.m. EST·CORRECTED
Flextronics exec linked to iPad leaks
Shimoon accused of disclosing info on then-secret product
By Benjamin Pimentel, MarketWatch
A previous version mischaracterized the way one of the phone calls in the case was recorded.
SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) — One of four people arrested Thursday in connection with an insider-trading crackdown had leaked information related to Apple Inc. products, including the iPad, according to a Justice Department complaint.
…
I know this blog is focused on the housing bubble, and now its after effects. However, the housing bubble was a symptom of the real underlying problem that really needs to be addressed.
I think it is time to stop looking at the housing bubble as the issue, and start looking at the structural issues in our econmy.
Inability to compete in a global low wage labor market leading to job offshoring.
Trade deficits resulting from job offshoring.
Debt used as a mechanism of ignoring the natural effects of trade deficits.
Since debt is money, and for 40 years we’ve done all we can to explode total debt to counter trade deficits, we’ve exploded the money supply. Most of that money is in the hands of a select few people, creating the greatest wealth disparity in the history of the country.
There are insufficient real investment oppertunites for all that money, and we’ve deregulated investing to the point that it is easy to inflate bubbles, so most of the money is used to inflate speculative asset price bubbles. For 40 years, most of our economic growth has been fueled by a series of ever larger bubbles. Junk bonds, commercial real estate that took out the S&Ls, tech bubble/wreck, the housing bubble… All of this has occured on top of strong and steady total debt growth.
In my opinion, it is WAY past time to deal with the trade deficits. We also need to attack the issues of too much debt and equal and opposite, too much money in the hands of too few.
It is time to reregulate, lean against asset price bubbles, take back the power from the Wall Street bazillionaires that toy with peoples’ lives.
Force Wall Street to recognize their losses, speed up the foreclosure process, restore the old bankruptcy laws that made it easier to wipe out all debt and start over with a clean slate, restore the “no interstate banks” laws, get banks out of the brokerage business, tighten credit card rules… Let the current bubbles totally collapse.
Stop Wall Street before they manage to inflate a new, even larger (and then more destrucitve when it pops) asset price bubble that they are so desperately trying to inflate to paper over their losses from the housing bubble and debt bubbles having popped.
It is time to address the massive trade deficits, labor cost inequities, job offshoring, etc. It is time for exchange rates to adjust, standard of living to adjust, global imbalances to go away…
Let’s deal with the real structural issues, and stop just trying to keep doing the same thing we’ve been doing for the last 40 years that brought us to this point.
‘focused on the housing bubble, and now its after effects’
After effects? Here in my little corner of AZ, median house prices are just north of $300k and median incomes are in the mid-20’s.
‘the housing bubble was a symptom of the real underlying problem’
You know, a lot of people seem to have a ‘real problem’ that stands above all the other problems, or is the root of all the others. Some would say govt involvement in the economy. Others would say de-regulation, or globalism, or income disparity, or illegal immigration, or corporatism, or class war, or racism, or (you get the idea).
One of my favorites is; “we have lost our way, and turned our back on God”. It’s hard to argue with that one, as no one can ask God if that’s the case. What all these theories share is the Gordian Knot concept that is easy to reach for; that there is one simple explanation and solution to our problems. In the case of the housing bubble, I can’t go along with it. There were so many factors, so many economies that were involved. I think I’ll stick with the idea that the housing bubble was an enormous global financial mania that took place amongst a confluence of factors; linked to many, affecting almost every aspect of the economy.
“After effects? Here in my little corner of AZ, median house prices are just north of $300k and median incomes are in the mid-20’s.”
Ben, a few days ago, you suggested you didn’t want to see more pain. I’m assuming that comes from the things you see day to day in clearing foreclosed property. But how can $300k homes become $60-70k homes without more pain?
Or, are you of the opinion that there will be a slow, long-term decline to that level over, say, 15-20 years?
“You know, a lot of people seem to have a ‘real problem’ that stands above all the other problems, or is the root of all the others.”
I understand what you are saying Ben, but I will counter. Did all our economic ills begin in 2003 with the housing boom?
Or, perhaps were there problems pre-2003. We the junk bond bubble, the S&L collapse, the tech bubble and tech wreck problems? If so, was there something going on that caused them?
Did consumer debt explosion begin in 2003 with the housing bubble? Total household debt in the USA in 1980 was $1.4T. 2003 it was $9.5T. Inflation adjustment for CPI is 77.8->181.7 = 2.3. Population adjustment is 227 million -> 294 million = 1.3.
So, sustainable rate of household debt growth based on population and inflation would have had debt go from $1.4T in 1980 to $1.4Tx2.3×1.3=$4.2. That is an increase of $2.4T. Actual increase based on actual dept of $9.5T = $8.1T.
Therefore, consumer debt was increasing at 3.4x the sustainable rate from 1980 to 2003, pre-housing bubble.
You get only slightly smaller numbers if you look at business debt.
The debt explosion was not the result of the housing bubble. The housing bubble was not the first in our long series of asset price bubbles.
What happend in the 1970s that caused us to turn to debt to maintain our standard of living?
I’ve looked very hard, and the one thing I can come up with is that for the first time in our history, we became a net import nation.
To maintain our standard of living in the face of low global wages that sucked away jobs and created a massive leak in teh economy know as trade deficits, we turned to debt.
For 40 years we relied on ever more debt issued at ever lower rates and with ever looser lending stantards.
Eventually that solution will result in too much debt even at near 0% interest rates, a point that interest rates can’t be pushed lower, and a situation where lending standard are so lose that fraud is the norm instead of the exception and we have no choice but to tighten lending standards. I think we reached that point in 2006.
I think the end game of the debt based economy is at hand, as soon as our massive federal deficits result in loss of confidence and higher treasury interest rates, our federal government will no longer be able to be the borrower of last resort….
We will have to stop living on debt, meaning we have to stop the tread deficits, meaning we have to deal with the reality that our wages are not competative in the face of global labor competition.
Maybe I still don’t have the real “root cause”, but I think I’m a lot closer than “we turned away from God” which I think you only presented as a straw man anyway.
Defeating “turning away from God” as the potential root cause does not defeat other possible root causes like low global wages, job offshoring, trade deficits, and using massive debt growth to maintain our standard of living in the face of all of the above.
“Business debt”
Remember that back in the late 1980s, business debt became a way to fend off the Banksters “Leveraged Buyout” craze.
Being a publicly help company, with low debt, was putting like putting a big bullseye on your behind.
For those on the HBB who mat not be familiar with the process:
-Find a publicly held company with an undervalued stock, but sitting on cash.
-Buy it out, and take it “private”.
-Strip and pocket all the cash.
-Borrow as much money as you can against the companies assets. Pocket this.
-Cut the working stiffs pay, stop spending money on product development. Pump the numbers for a few quarters. Pay yourself bonuses for putting the company on the “right track”
-Offer stock in the company as an IPO, or take the company Chapter 7 or 11 if the chickens come home to roost sooner than you expect. Pay yourself “management fees” to oversee the liquidation process.
-Lather, rinse repeat with another company
I’m with you. The bubble wasn’t a cause. Housing was the last tangible asset that J6P had, so the banksters figured out a way to leverage that.
All the Republicans want to blame the CRA, but NONE of those loans were made until the banksters figured out a way to keep all the profits, and shift all of the downside onto other people.
well if banks aren’t lending much anymore then I expect the money supply to be static. And on top of that if debts are not being repaid I expect the money supply to be shrinking.
I saw a you tube video Peter Schiff verus Robert Precther
3 parts pretty good I thought
Who likes maps? Perhaps the better question is, Who doesn’t?
Click on the blue “View more maps” to view maps by income, housing and education…
Mapping America: Every City, Every Block
Who likes maps?
Tankxs!
whoa! Nice! Good find.
Thanks!
I’ve already killed hours after seeing this last night…
It’s awesome. Now that I know the median HH income in our census tract is $113K (up 22% since Y2K), it makes a lot more sense why home prices are so astronomical.
But here is a more revelatory statistic:
“Mortgages consuming 30% of income = 50%
Change since 2000 = +27%”
By contrast, our rent consumes below 23% of our income.
We will keep renting until prices drop back to affordable levels relative to incomes and rents. We’re not there yet.
Yawn…
Amy Hoak’s Home Economics
Dec. 13, 2010, 12:01 a.m. EST
More foreclosures, home-price drops on tap in 2011
High volume of foreclosures in the pipeline means a rough year ahead
By Amy Hoak, MarketWatch
CHICAGO (MarketWatch) — Brace yourself for another rough year in housing. The number of foreclosures is expected by many to increase in 2011 as more troubled mortgages work their way through the pipeline.
Foreclosures may well peak next year, said Rick Sharga, a senior vice president for RealtyTrac, an online marketplace for foreclosure properties. The market is expected to tally about 1.2 million bank repossessions in 2010, up from 900,000 in 2009, he said. Read more about foreclosure filings in 2010’s third quarter.
“We expect we will top both of those numbers in 2011,” he said.
…
Even if foreclosures peak next year, when will foreclosure *sales* peak? How many years are they going to hold them before they sell them? Or as was said here long ago, in the end will somebody prefer to bulldoze them than let the prices fall to where supply and demand would otherwise dictate?
Right. Actual foreclosures will clearly peak well before sales, especially given lender foot dragging to market homes they took back. And then there is the empty-nestering of the baby boomers, which would be sufficient to knock the legs out from under McMansion demand all by itself, without the added issue of a global financial meltdown thrown in.
We are looking at many more years ahead of downward pressure on U.S. home prices.
It goes what I’ve always said. You’re getting a great deal on rents as compared with prices. Why not put your feet up and have a whisky or four?
Drinking my two-buck-Chuck as I type. I am slumming down to $2/bottle wine to protest the recent 20% surge of inflation in cheap wine prices, which drove my customary $5 bottles up to $6.
Visa, MasterCard Plunge as Fed Issues Rules to Cut Debit Fees
By Peter Eichenbaum and Carter Dougherty - Dec 16, 2010 12:16 PM PT
The Federal Reserve Board proposed new rules to curb debit-card fees, offering alternative plans that are likely to aid retailers and cut profit for U.S. lenders who reaped about $15 billion from such charges last year. Photographer: Norm Betts/Bloomberg
Visa Inc. and MasterCard Inc. plunged more than 12 percent in New York trading after the Federal Reserve Board proposed rules that may slash debit-card interchange fees by 90 percent.
The new rules, posted today by the Fed on its website, may aid retailers and cut profit for lenders who reaped about $15 billion from such charges last year. Terms outlined by the Fed include a plan with caps of 12 cents per transaction. The fees currently average about 1 percent.
The result could be an 80 percent to 90 percent drop in the fees that Visa and MasterCard pass on to banks, according to Tien-tsin Huang, an analyst at JPMorgan Chase & Co. Jason Kupferberg, an analyst at UBS AG, said investors had been expecting a 40 percent to 60 percent reduction.
“Visa is still reviewing the specific elements of the recommendations,” said Will Valentine, a spokesman for the San Francisco-based company, in an e-mailed statement. “We cannot comment in detail on the proposed regulations until we have had a chance to fully consider their implications.”
Visa fell $9.82, or 13 percent, to $67.12 at 3:08 p.m. in New York Stock Exchange composite trading, the most in two years. MasterCard dropped as much as 12 percent, its biggest one-day slide ever, before recovering to $222.04, an 11 percent drop.
…
“The whole country is now seeing the story that Michigan has been living with for a long time,” said Diane Swonk, chief economist at Mesirow Financial. “We have kicked the can so far down the road that now all we have is a cliff to fall off.”
“The recession merely revealed a reality that has been with us for a long time. We faced a growing gap in education and skills that we tried to fill with debt and credit, which gave us the illusion of growth.”
http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSTRE6BF28720101216
The recession merely revealed a reality that has been with us for a long time. We faced a growing gap in education and skills that we tried to fill with debt and credit, which gave us the illusion of growth.”
Wrong, we faced a growing wage gap with third world slave labor. The us has/had plenty of bright engineers scientists and tradesman. I was an engineer and I could see where the job market was going. Work was being devalued, engineers and scientists were more and more viewed as cogs replaceable with cheaper cogs in ASIA. We filled high paying engineering jobs with high paying realtor jobs. We filled assembly jobs with construction. All of this was financed with debt. The debt was used to hide the fact that corporate America was destroying the middle class and the foundation it was built on.
Chindia has 7x the population of the USA. This means they have 7x as many high IQ individuals as the USA. How do you get those people to only accept $1 an hour manufacturing jobs when they could be earning much more as engineers and scientists?
How do we get Chindia to agree to only manufacture, when they have 7x the talent to design and discover as we do?
How do we get Chindia to agree to only manufacture, when they have 7x the talent to design and discover as we do?
I see your point, but so far it would appear that their environment may not be as conducive to discovery (and taking advantage of discovery) as ours. Perhaps that may change, though.
“We have made concession after concession on wages and benefits and there is no end in sight,” said Dean Parm, a worker and union committeeman at Nexteer Automotive, whose hourly wages have been cut to around $17 an hour from $28. “It feels like we’re dinosaurs. And we’re on the verge of extinction.”
This is the point of the story where many Americans typically glaze over because they see Michigan as a long-standing financial basket case of a state thanks to the shrinking U.S. auto industry. But the problem is that the broad decline of the manufacturing sector that has been underway in this country for decades now may threaten not just the long-term health of the economy but also the living standards of all but the wealthiest Americans.
2010 American Corpoorations CEO’s salaries + benefits,… underpaid?/suffering?/unbearable?/declining/#1-sore-subject-heatedly-debated-by-the-bored-of-directors?
See those giant ships & all those railroad tracks in the forefront and all those machine shop / assembly buildings attached right next to the docks…
Monk: “Here’s what happened…”
Ford’s River Rouge assembly plant was a manufacturing marvel,…that was capable of taking raw materials such as iron ore, rubber, and wood and turning them into a refined finished pickup truck:
http://www1.assumption.edu/users/McClymer/his261/06_02_Slide_Show_06_B_19.jpg
That is a most excellent read.
Prety much echos my thoughts. It started with imports and outsourcing, leading us to turn to debt to maintain our standard of living, and is going to end with a much lower standard of living.
One of the things they talk about is retraining and high skileld jobs growing faster than others. I’m sorry, but not jsut anyone can be trained to do a high tech job. It takes a certain IQ and way of thinking, and those things can’t be tought.
And… unfortunatly, if there is anyting to genetics, we have another issue. The most successful are having the fewest children. I wonder if that has anything to do with the falling average scores on school tests. (Says a guy with a 145 IQ and only one biological child (and 4 step from 2 marriages)).
“Idiocracy” wasn’t fiction.
It’s not just the most successful. They can actually afford children. It’s the very intelligent, but not successful, who aren’t having children because they KNOW they can’t afford them.
It’s about time we discarded the old canard the says “intelligent = successful” since our country is pretty much ruled by the inbred aristocracy. (current events?) And I’ve personally seen a lot of not-very-smart (and that’s putting it politely) people who own businesses or have a lot of personal wealth who wouldn’t be there without luck and connections.
And I’ve personally seen a lot of not-very-smart (and that’s putting it politely) people who own businesses or have a lot of personal wealth who wouldn’t be there without luck and connections.
I can think of many cases here in Tucson. Especially in our business community.
I’ve tried to have conversations with local biz people about the things that we discuss here. Such as long-term trends in the American and world business climate. Or history. Or politics and its intersection with economics.
And, sad to say, it’s as if I’ve suddenly switched to speaking Greek. They just don’t have the intellectual horsepower to join the conversation.
We’ve all heard the good people being at the “wrong place at the wrong time” stories.
But hardly ever hear someone attribute their success to being “at the right place, at the right time”. Mostly, they attribute their success to superior education or intelligence.
I personally know a divisional VP I started working with (as regular worker bees) thirty years ago. He was a lazy POS, who spent half his day in BS sessions.
But he looked good in a suit, and he was REAL GOOD at brown-nosing his bosses.
Up until about 1990, what you KNEW mattered most. About 1990 (about the same time that HR departments took over the hiring and promotions department), the “It is better to look good than to be good” crowd started taking over.
That’s also when the Peter principle was replaced by the Dilbert principle. Scott Adams wrote a book describing the old system as being one where being good at grunt work is what got you promoted. You might not be a good manager but at least you were good at the thing you were trying to manage people to do. That got replaced by the promotion of the biggest screwups (as long as they looked good), just to get them out of the way of the real work.
“When the real estate boom began to show signs of unraveling in 2006, lenders used ever more exotic products to get people into homes they could not afford, such as stated-income or “liar” loans where the borrower merely stated how much they earned without verification.
It is interesting to note that on the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission’s web site the definition of a Ponzi scheme…includes the following line: “Ponzi scheme organizers often solicit new investors by promising to invest funds in opportunities claimed to generate high returns with little or no risk.”
“With little or no legitimate earnings, the schemes require a consistent flow of money from new investors to continue,” the web site says. “Ponzi schemes tend to collapse when it becomes difficult to recruit new investors or when a large number of investors ask to cash out.” ”
Good article. Thanks for sharing.
“But fixing America’s education system for jobs of the future plus retraining unskilled workers would require bipartisan consensus, a long-term commitment by America’s political class and funding to make it happen. In today’s bitterly divided Washington, that is a tough sell.”
Why don’t those unskilled workers who need retraining take student loans, and repay them like everyone else?
Local Assistance Available To Homeowners Facing Foreclosure
By Kyla Calvert, Maureen Cavanaugh
December 16, 2010
Foreclosures are continuing at above normal levels in San Diego. More of the people being foreclosed on now are people who have lost their jobs or who have only been making payments on their mortgage’s interest and now also have to pay down the principle. What are the things homeowners need to know about foreclosure and loan modification? What resources are out there to help them?
Guest
Vino Pajanor, president and executive director of Housing Opportunities Collaborative
I heard this program while it was aired live. Lots of befuddled FB’s were calling in to get advice on their underwater situation. It reminded me of watching a swarm of ants that are eating a dead grasshopper, after you kick away the grasshopper.
Using Populism To Influence Political Change
By Maureen Cavanaugh, Hank Crook
December 16, 2010
It seems logical that if 70% of Americans support a specific political policy, it should be made law. Yet, lawmakers continue to pass legislation that the majority of Americans oppose. The outrage over the insurance purchase mandate in the federal health care reform bill could derail the policy from going into effect in 2014. If so many people are opposed to the idea, why was it included in the legislation? The author of the “Progressive’s Guide to Raising Hell” talks about how the power of the people can influence political change.
Guest
Jamie Court, president of Consumer Watchdog, and author of “The Progressive’s Guide to Raising Hell”
The Financial Times
Pimco fuels bond market debate
By Nicole Bullock in New York
Published: December 16 2010 22:31 | Last updated: December 16 2010 22:31
The world’s biggest bond fund, which is run by Bill Gross at Pimco, has opened the door to start buying equity-linked securities, further fuelling the debate about the direction of bond markets.
The announcement comes as some investors and strategists predict the long-running bond rally, which helped catapult Mr Gross to wealth and fame, may be coming to a close.
Mr Gross himself has said that asset purchases by the US Federal Reserve under quantitative easing “will likely signify the end of a great 30-year bull market in bonds and the necessity for bond managers and, yes, equity managers to adjust to a new environment”.
…
Realtors having pep rallies, lol!
http://www.tampabay.com/news/business/realestate/pep-rallies-motivate-agents-at-century-21-beggins-enterprises/1140461
Reporter Mark Puente replaced James Thorner — remember Thorner?
James “I have a name for house hunters counting on a return to 1998 prices: lifelong renters” Thorner!!
Ownership, Rights and Silver Vigilantes
http://tinyurl.com/278nwh2
It looks like we had our own local version of the Madoff family here in Idaho. This couple has been busted by the SEC for selling shares in a start-up nuclear reactor company.
The SEC sought to freeze the assets of Alternate Energy Holdings, Inc. and Gillispie, 67, its chairman and CEO, and Ransom, 36, his girlfriend and senior vice president for administration. The commission said AEHI had sold millions of dollars in shares in the U.S. and Asia while manipulating its stock price and funneling secret profits to Gillispie and Ransom.
http://www.idahostatesman.com/2010/12/16/1457582/idahos-alternate-energy-holdings.html
Really interesting write-up on one man’s experience and reflection on his investment in Madoff’s ponzi scheme:
http://www.nytimes.com/2010/12/12/opinion/12kubin.html
He needn’t have said another word; I knew right away my whole investment was toast. Two weeks earlier I had doubled my stake, having thought of Mr. Madoff’s fund as a safe haven from a nose-diving stock market. Just that morning I had received my monthly statement showing a perky increase; I had even called to thank my Madoff contact.
Yet during all the years I had money with Mr. Madoff, I had a sense there was something odd about his fund. Its performance wasn’t stellar — it was just so suspiciously steady. I had joked with friends that “someday this will turn out to be a Ponzi scheme, but I’ll have my money out by then.” Someday turned out to be that Thursday, two years ago.
Can there be a better example of “shirtcoats to shirtcoats in three generations?”
This man has quite clearly never earned his wealth.
Don’t buy before this demographic trend is fully priced in:
WSJ Blogs
Developments
Real estate news and analysis from The Wall Street Journal
Prices in Southern California Fall More Than 13%
Prices Are Falling, but Buyers Might Not Win Out
January 16, 2008, 1:00 PM ET
Why Baby Boomers May Bust the Housing Market
Think the current housing downturn and the subprime mortgage mess is the worst of the housing market’s problems? Not so, according to a report published this month in the Journal of the American Planning Association.
About to wreak havoc on the housing market are the 78 million American baby boomers who will “retire, relocate, and eventually withdraw from the housing market,” according to report authors Dowell Myers, a professor of urban planning and demography in the School of Policy, Planning and Development at the University of Southern California, and SungHo Ryu, an associate planner with the Southern California Association of Governments.
Using demographic data to show that individuals in their mid-60s tend to sell more often than buy, the authors contend that when boomers — a “dominant force in the housing market” — start reaching the age of 65 in the year 2011, a market shift will occur. Some retirees will be looking to downsize, others will relocate to warmer climes, while others will move to nursing homes, says Mr. Myers. As they transition out of the housing market or look to sell their homes, in some states there will be “more homes available for sale than there are buyers for them.” Home prices will soften.
The “sell-off” will create a sizeable hurdle for the housing market, because as Mr. Myers puts it, “It isn’t money that buys property, it’s warm bodies. If you don’t have enough warm bodies to fill up the space, the space stays empty.”
…
Baby-Boomer Blues
It’s every homeowners dream: making that 360th payment and finally getting to burn the mortgage. But in the years leading up to the recession, many Americans treated their homes like bottomless piggy banks. And as baby boomers now approach retirement, many are facing a harsh reality: the Grim Reaper could come calling before they ever pay off their mortgage. “A lot of them were seeing equity in their home and felt comfortable not putting money into retirement,” says Dean Baker, the codirector of the Center for Economic and Policy Research in Washington. “They’ve been completely wiped out.”
Since 1989, the percentage of Americans ages 55 to 64 who still have a mortgage has risen from 49 to 63 percent, according to Harvard’s Joint Center for Housing Studies. During that same period, the median balance owed by this group has nearly tripled, to $85,000.
The trend isn’t unique to the U.S. In the United Kingdom—where similarly lax lending standards and tax policies also helped create a housing bubble—a quarter of people ages 55 to 64 are still making mortgage payments, according to Aviva, the insurance giant.
…
The likely passage of this bill will have the unintended and unforeseen consequence of driving up long-term interest rates, and in particular, mortgage rates, to levels that drive yet another stake through the housing bubble’s heart.
* POLITICS
* DECEMBER 16, 2010
Tax Deal Moves Toward Passage
By JANET HOOK and JOHN MCKINNON
WASHINGTON—Congress was poised Thursday to pass a far-reaching bill to avert an across-the-board, income-tax increase, but a final House vote was delayed by a procedural snarl that underscored liberals’ persistent opposition to the bill.
…
I’m thinking Obama’s chances of getting re-elected just went up BY A LOT.
* POLITICS
* DECEMBER 17, 2010
Congress Passes Tax Deal
Divided Legislature Adopts Sweeping Measure to Avert Increases, Add New Breaks
By JANET HOOK and JOHN MCKINNON
WASHINGTON—Congress passed the most far-reaching tax bill in a decade late Thursday, averting across-the-board tax increases, enacting new breaks for individuals and businesses and laying a marker for how Washington might work in an era of divided government.
The bill goes to the White House for President Barack Obama’s signature after the House overcame persistent liberal opposition and passed it with an unexpectedly large bipartisan majority of 277-148. The measure passed the Senate earlier in the week also with an overwhelming majority.
The bill reaches deeply into the life and economy of the U.S., more so than might have been expected when Congress first started tackling the matter. Wage-earners will get a new payroll tax break; wealthy heirs get a lower estate-tax rate; and businesses gain an unexpected plum—a big tax write-off for new equipment purchases.
…
Here comes Santa Claus!
market pulse
Dec. 17, 2010, 12:12 a.m. EST
U.S. House approves extending Bush-era tax cuts
By Robert Schroeder
WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) — House lawmakers approved a two-year across-the-board extension of Bush-era tax cuts just before midnight on Thursday, capping off weeks of furious debate and ensuring that rates won’t rise on virtually all Americans come Jan. 1. The bill, already passed by the Senate, now goes to President Barack Obama for signature. It also includes a 2% rollback of Social Security payroll taxes; extends unemployment insurance for 13 months; and brings back the estate tax at 35% for two years on estates of more than $5 million. The House vote was 277-148.
Americans Still Strongly Oppose Big Wall Street Bonuses
Scott Rubin, provided by Benzinga
SFGate December 13, 2010 04:00 AM
…
Where to start? The best place to begin is probably to point out the absolutely blatant perversion of capitalism that the financial crisis has caused. To call this country “capitalist,” is a complete and utter joke. America is not a capitalist country. Period.
In one way or another, most of the country is now on the dole of the Federal Government whether it be through unemployment benefits, entitlement programs, or being employed by an industry which was bailed out. Making matters worse is the fact that the Treasury and the Federal Reserve are financing all of this through a brazen Ponzi scheme, which I will not get into here.
Look at what has happened. We have this industry - Wall Street - that has blown up the American financial system, from time to time, with amazing consistency. This happens over and over again. In 2008, by any rational person’s measure, they outdid themselves.
Keep in mind that “Wall Street” is supposed to be a symbol of “capitalism” and “free markets.” But what happened when the exorbitant risks that these banks and securities firms were taking became a source of enterprise-threatening losses instead of enormous profits?
The losses were subsidized by the public of course! What happens when the profits begin rolling in again? They are pocketed by the Wall Street elite of course! What form of capitalism is this? The level of moral hazard that has been introduced into our nation’s financial system is appalling. Mark my words, another crisis, of equal or greater magnitude to what we saw in 2008, is on the horizon.
The majority of Americans that responded to this Bloomberg poll also are not true believers in capitalism, although I bet many of them would claim otherwise. But you see, they are reacting to the initial perversion of the concept which occurred during the economic crisis, when the government bailed out the entire financial system.
Here is my question. For those who admonish the reactionary instincts of the American public and their wish to see big Wall Street bonuses scaled back, what is the alternative? Is a “make millions upon millions when things are good, get bailed out when things go bad” policy better? How in the world can this type of system be justified. It’s ridiculous.
The Wall Street mantra is “heads I win, tails you lose.” The burden that this type of arrangement has on the country is tremendous.
…
Bonus rage as taxpayers eye payback
Tuesday, December 14, 2010
With the US unemployment rate at 9.8 percent, resentment of bank bonuses and profits is uniting Americans across political, gender, age and income groups.
More than 70 percent of Americans said big bonuses should be banned this year at Wall Street firms that took taxpayer bailouts.
An additional one in six favors slapping a 50 percent tax on bonuses exceeding US$400,000 (HK$3.12 million).
Respondents polled by Bloomberg may have at least two people in mind: JPMorgan chief Jamie Dimon, who got a US$17 million bonus package last year, and Goldman Sachs boss Lloyd Blankfein, who received a US$9 million all-stock bonus for last year, down from his Wall Street record US$67.9 million in 2007.
A large majority also want a little tit for tat with Wall Streets return to financial health, they want to tax bank profits to reduce the federal budget deficit.
…
Banning Big Wall Street Bonus Favored by 70% of Americans in National Poll
By Catherine Dodge - Dec 12, 2010 9:01 PM PT
Dec. 13 (Bloomberg) — More than 70 percent of Americans say big bonuses should be banned this year at Wall Street firms that took taxpayer bailouts, a Bloomberg National Poll shows.
An additional one in six favors slapping a 50 percent tax on bonuses exceeding $400,000. Just 7 percent of U.S. adults say bonuses are an appropriate incentive reflecting Wall Street’s return to financial health.
A large majority also want to tax Wall Street profits to reduce the federal budget deficit. A levy on financial services firms is the top choice among more than a dozen deficit-cutting options presented to respondents.
With U.S. unemployment at 9.8 percent, resentment of bonuses and banking profits unites Americans across political, gender, age and income groups. Among Republicans, who generally are skeptical of business regulation, 76 percent support a government ban on big bonuses to bailout recipients, that’s higher than backing among Democrats or independents.
JPMorgan Chase & Co. Chairman and Chief Executive Officer Jamie Dimon got a bonus package for 2009 valued at $17 million and Goldman Sachs Group Inc.’s Chairman and CEO Lloyd Blankfein received a $9 million all-stock bonus for last year, down from his Wall Street record $67.9 million in 2007.
“The American people bailed them out and immediately they went and paid their employees very large bonuses,” says poll respondent Michael Robertson, 43, of Wayne, Michigan. “I don’t believe they should have a bonus at all for a while.”
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