Bits Bucket for January 30, 2011
Post off-topic ideas, links, and Craigslist finds here.
The Housing Bubble
Examining the home price boom and its effect on owners, lenders, regulators, realtors and the economy as a whole.
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Name:Ben Jones
Location:Northern Arizona, United States
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Don’t have the link, but this morning’s azcentral.com has a headline about its depressed real estate. Not sure if I read this part in that article, but there won’t be much recovery if at all in ten years. A glut of cheap houses turned to rentals in blighted neighborhoods. In Maryvale, prices at the peak were in the $160s and now are around $30k. 80% drop! Article points out that even if prices there double, they would still be depressed. Blight all over Phoenix. High end houses in North Scottsdale once priced at $1.5 million are not even budging at $700k. It’s the lack of good paying jobs, man! The average income in Phoenix is around $42,000. The average house sold these days I hear is $114,000. But tens of thousand of houses still priced at fairyland prices still.
Here’s the link:
http://www.azcentral.com/business/realestate/articles/2011/01/30/20110130az-real-estate-market-outlook.html
I have posted the link.
Median -individual- income is around $34k.
Asking prices in some west side areas are lower than when i was looking to buy a house to rent out in 1983.
“It’s the lack of good paying jobs, man!”
A recurring theme. Good paying jobs translate to lots of cash flowing. When the cash stops flowing then the economy deterioriates and you get Cleveland and Detroit, and now Maryvale.
Same story, different location.
combo:
I don’t think people around here have any clue about blighted cities in America, sure there are lots of buildings for sale or rent, but there is nothing we can point at like the south Bronx of the 80’s which would be the equivalent of Detroit today…
Not yet, but soon…
From the article: “residents most likely will have to live with pockets of persistent blight in areas where ill-fated residential subdivisions will not recover”
But with more guns.
Posterchild of an economy based on building houses, houses for those building houses. When the building stopped, the jobs ended.
“Meanwhile, Butler said, it appears that many high-end homeowners are running out of time, siphoning off critical savings and retirement funds to stay current on their mortgages.”
I thought high-end homeowners were smarter.
A new guy just started working at our site. This is his third job in 3 years. He didn’t like job 1 and so moved without selling his house. 2.5 years later the house has still not sold. He was smart enough to rent during job 2. Now he is moving back into his original house because he can’t take making payments on two houses. He quit job 2 to take a part time job with us.
Many have posted about job mobility being a problem with this housing bubble.
Yes, and job mobility will continue to be a problem until the PTB realize that high housing prices do not work with the new model of regular unemployment and constantly having to move for new jobs. This risk must be priced into the housing market, which means that prices need to be much LOWER than they were during periods of more stable employment.
I thought high-end homeowners were smarter……
You are assuming people in high-priced houses are high-income earners, with most likely, higher intelligence.
The reality is many “residents” of high-priced houses are working-class folks who got a 1% for 5 to 10-year loan, that has “reset” to the real rate.
If you can keep rates down below 1% on the mortgage, you can keep up prices indefinitely. It’s just the interest rate reversion that’s killing the bubble.
I just read this morning where some slob in Australia or Canada was holding a mortgage with a rate of 3/4 of 1%. That’s why they haven’t had a collapse in those markets, yet.
As long as you can keep getting a near-ZERO rate, the price doesn’t matter.
It’s not about “good paying jobs”. With low rates you can work for minimum wage and buy a mansion. It’s the fantasy that you will be able to unload it to someone else when the rates go up that leads to the collapse. If you can afford it at .75%, then resetting to 5% is a 666% increase (sign of the Beast omen).
No one can make that transition, no matter how good a job they may have. And no one can afford to buy it without the same loose lending standards of ZERO percent money.
“It’s just the interest rate reversion that’s killing the bubble.”
+1 I agree.
Best explanation I’ve seen of this. Did you know that the bank holding the loan gets to book all the deferred interest as income, as if it were being paid, until tshtf—then they book a loss when the loan fails. No wonder they hold off realizing those losses!
Yes , I did know about the booking of income but my DUMB congresman, Lois Capps didn’t. In fact she hasn’t read a bill before voting YES. She’s joined at the hip with Pelosi.
I just spoke w/3 separate people this week who reside in nicer neighborhoods who said the payments/taxes on their larger homes were killing their balance sheets. One mentioned that w/in a few years they’d be looking to downsize. One has already visited a bankruptcy attorney but makes too much money to avoid wage garnishing. The other one is being transferred and is looking at homes that will cost him $400k more than this one is on the market for.
Two pay their mortgage via big pharma. The other big oil.
I thought high-end homeowners were all strong hands?
mortgage
They’re rich and famous and in foreclosure
By Sonya Stinson • Bankrate dot com
Famous, fabulous and homeless?
How does Nicolas Cage get behind on his mortgage payments? The same way other rich and famous people do.
“They’ve stretched themselves higher than they probably should have,” says John Anderson, owner of Twin Oaks Realty in Minneapolis and a National Association of Realtors expert in foreclosures. Some couldn’t keep up when the rates on their adjustable rate mortgages shot up, Anderson says. Price drops at the high end of the market were so steep that a sale wouldn’t cover the debt. In other words, high-end homeowners face the same problems that plague the not-so-rich-and-famous.
Here are five of the biggest names on the of list homeowners falling to foreclosure. We’ve included a bit of info about the current markets where these stars once lived. You know, in case you’d like to hunt for a foreclosure deal in one of those tony neighborhoods.
…
I get to see a lot of these Masters of the Universe up close.
Most of them aren’t that smart. They definitely aren’t 100 times smarter than the Average J6P, which is the logical conclusion you could draw, since they are getting paid 100 times more.
They all have some combination of the following:
-They look nice in while doing the Powerpoint Show,in a reptilian sort of way.
-They can lie their azzes off with a straight face, and tell their audience what they want to hear.
-Their noses are all brown, or they are related to someone.
I’ve met many up close as well, and no, they sure as hell aren’t 100 times smarter than J6P and fit your description to a T. However, you also left out another factor… luck.
It’s like I say, it’s not about wealth envy, it’s about what the wealthy DO with their money and how they hurt others.
“According to The Arizona Republic’s most recent Valley Home Values report, the median home-sale price in ZIP code 85009 fell to $30,000 in 2010 from $160,000 in 2007, a decline of about 81 percent.”
Gotta wonder if appraisal fraud played a role?
Geez that $30K has to be less than the cost of construction. If average house is 1,500 square feet, then that’s $20 per square foot.
Appraisal fraud is grossly overstated in this fiasco. The problem is letting someone “buy” a house with no money. The price will inevitably rise. The entire problem with appraisals and assessments is that they are based on recent “sales”. If two similar houses down the street sold for $200,000, when they were $100,000 last year, then the assessed value of 200k is the CURRENT market value.
The problem is that the “sale” did not meet the basic criteria that we used in real estate for decades. To call is a sale, it requires the “buyer” to exchange what we used to call “valuable consideration”.
When you put up nothing, then it technically isn’t a “sale”, it’s a paper transaction, much like option contract.
All over the Nation, appraisers and assessors used current “sales” data to derive current market value. That process needs to change to require a minimum of 10% or 20% CASH down to consider it a “sale”. Any properties that sold for less money down should NOT be countable as “arms length transactions”.
The appraisers didn’t commit fraud, they just used a really crappy model to come up with “current market value”.
How can you say they are wrong when the have current “sales” data to support the “current” value?
The appraisers were relying on fraudulent lending sales with low down payments . Market value is based on a willing and “Able’
buyer in a arms length transaction based on present value .
Older appraisers who objected to the increases in value where blackballed from the business . A group of Appraisers went to Congress objecting and trying to alert them and they were
ignored . The appraisers are not in charge of underwriting and that is where the real crimes occurred ,the appraisals just reflected that breach in duty to make acceptable loans by the lenders . That being said ,we had a lot of stories on this blog about appraisers being under pressure to HIT THE MARK on purchases and refinances when they had doubts about the
value . Lenders and real estate agents were threatening to
blackball them and never give them any more business . There were some stories from some Appraisers that just refused and
they became unemployed ,we had one here that posted all the time .
Appraisal principals for Market value would never be acceptable that buyers who were approved weren’t qualified and they were
just given some low down loan based on real estate always goes
up. Real Estate Market Value appraisals are based on present value ,not future value .Speculation is based on future value .
Many appraisers were on record stating they had been told to misrepresent the worth of the house or never get called back again.
Posted here, with links to the news articles, no less.
Talk about faint praise…geez
CHICAGO — Torrey Warship had never owned a home — until the mortgage foreclosure crisis.
Through a federal program to renovate foreclosed homes, the 34-year-old public works laborer bought his first house in Waukegan, Ill., for $138,000. He moved his family out of an apartment and into a two-story, two-bedroom home in a “nice and peaceful neighborhood.”
“I’m loving it,” he said. “If it wasn’t for that (program), I wouldn’t have been able to get it.”
Warship is one of a small number of new homeowners benefiting from the Neighborhood Stabilization Program, which helps to buy, renovate and sell foreclosed, abandoned homes.
Since the federal stabilization program was launched, Congress has allocated $7 billion — some of it through President Barack Obama’s economic stimulus package.
Despite recent Republican attacks on federal spending, this program has had few public critics, perhaps because it is relatively small, said Eli Lehrer, a senior fellow who studies housing markets for the Heartland Institute, which promotes free-market solutions to public-policy problems.
“It’s not an awful idea,” Lehrer said of the program. “It may do some good in some places.”
Whenever a politician says, “it’s not X”, you can bet your patootie that in fact it is indeed X.
In this case, it’s an awful idea. The END.
really…138k still ain’t cheap ITE.
“If it wasn’t for that (program), I wouldn’t have been able to get it.”
That says it all.
He has no business buying a house because he is not responsible enough to save up for a down-payment and work out buying decisions on his own.
If the government is subsidizing it, you know it needs to stop.
Help make housing “affordable” by ending ALL government housing programs.
Can the government quits giving money to businesses too? Starve Main Street, Wall Street, and K Street. Now that would be interesting.
2 story, 2 bedroom? That is SMALL.
Small is the new black.
“New York City could lose $1 billion in education aid from the state, forcing the nation’s largest school system to cut more than 21,000 teachers, Mayor Michael Bloomberg said Friday.”
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748703956604576110114146999314.html
I volunteer (through friends) in summer for the Math programs for “talented” kids.
Some of these “teachers” could stand to be fired.
Last year, these teachers objected when I told two giggly girls in the front row to stop chatting and focus on the lesson. They got the full FPSS treatment.
My friends were not surprised in the least, and to their credit, they said that it was a good thing.
What would you say about an advanced 8th grade geometry teacher who presents off power point slides, never works problems on the board for the class, doesn’t check the kids’ work to see whether their logic is correct, didn’t even bother grading or giving credit for completing homework assignments until certain uppity parents complained (
) and is afraid to sketch a picture on the board to illustrate geometry principles because they are challenged in the spatial relations department?
Unfortunately, I have just described my son’s teacher. To make matters worse, it is much harder to tutor your own kid than someone else’s kid. (I’m thinking I should do a tutoring exchange with another kid in the class who is struggling and whose parent is qualified to tutor.)
Most teachers are incompetent at best, and downright criminally negligent at worst. Math teachers are worse than most because they quite literally don’t grasp the subject.
I have a “What does Calculus even mean?” talk. I have it down to an art. I aim it at fourth-graders which means that the eleventh-graders barely follow.
Their teachers who have been “teaching” for two decades call it eye-opening. I call these teachers criminally negligent as in if you haven’t figured this out, what on earth are you teaching?
Please do not get me started. We’d be here all day.
You are preachin’ to the choir, bro’. I literally tutored a whole semester’s worth of physics to my daughter last week to get her ready for her final. She had a ‘D’ going into it, but managed to score an 89/100 on the final.
Sadly, a ‘D’ appeared on her report card. Perhaps the teacher doesn’t know how to compute an average?
Math teachers are worse than most because they quite literally don’t grasp the subject…….
You don’t understand the “education” elites. These are “educators”, not teachers, who are “credentialed”. The are qualified to teach based on their credentials.
If you ever talk with any of them, you will find that you don’t need to know the subject to teach it, you just need to know how to teach.
Although I have an engineering degree, and have taken and passed lots of advanced math courses, physics, chemistry, and mechanics, I am not “qualified” to teach because I don’t have “credentials” since I wasted my time studying hard science and not learned the fine art of “teaching”. I even had to pass State Board exams to prove, in spite of my grades, I could solve a bunch of random problems using MATH and science and stuff.
We live in a bizarre world where Unions protect the useless and ignorant. I have friend who solves statistics problems for money over the internet. His biggest business is from “teachers” who are working on their Masters degrees (automatic pay increase) who can’t do the work. A lot of this is for on-line university work. He solves their problems for cash, and the “university” provides additional “credentials” for the cheaters. None of them could solve a statistics problem if they tried, and yet, they will be “teaching” statistics soon, I am sure.
This is why our schools are failing and the costs are astronomical. We hear constantly how underpaid these people are when, in fact, the cost of US education is higher, per pupil, than nearly anywhere on planet earth, with poor results.
Make Public Unions Illegal.
Oh, I do, I do!!! That’s why I’m a force for good.
These loser teachers tried to sue me. Then they realized I’d crush them monetarily like the flies they were.
My mission is to educate the best kids.
I will ruthlessly rape anyone that comes in the way.
The math teachers who found your talk eye-opening may have never used calculus to solve real world problems.
I am not so full of myself that I think I would get nothing from your talk. I have a math degree, but have not used calculus in 35 years. I had to relearn trig 3 times when I tutored my children. If I have to tutor my grandchildren, I will have to relearn it again.
I spent a few years volunteering in the math club at my children’s junior high school - mostly geometry, algebra, and probability. The teachers who worked with me said my explanations were enlightening. Math certifications in Washington state are K-8 and secondary. So the K-8 teachers may be lacking in basic numeracy and are certainly lacking in higher math.
I think we should have specialized math teachers at all age groups. I think most elementary school teachers lack a thorough understanding of math. And the curriculum doesn’t help. I was appalled when they introduced discovery math. It is ridiculous to expect that all children are capable of discovering mathematical principles that the geniuses of history developed.
And don’t get me started on group work. The only classes that should be using group projects are drama, video, PE - classes where you need a group to produce the project. In math classes, they allow less capable students to skate by on the work of others. Those less capable students fall further behind every day, until they just give up and decide they are incapable. The truth is that they just need more time and practice, with vanishingly few exceptions for the truly incapable.
Well daddy….time for a meeting with the principal and ask how did the teacher figure that math problem out?
Sadly, a ‘D’ appeared on her report card. Perhaps the teacher doesn’t know how to compute an average?
“Although I have an engineering degree, and have taken and passed lots of advanced math courses, physics, chemistry, and mechanics, I am not “qualified” to teach”
Most counties in the Tampa area have transition to teaching programs.
What would you say ??
Union tenured ??
Our K12 schools have no text books for home use–just photo copies of the questions section. If the kids “don’t get it” in class, and their parents are dull, the good lord will provide. I don’t pray, so I purchased two complete sets of home schooling math textbooks from different publishers that explain the principals through words and illustrations.
I found Stratton math to be a wonderful homeschooling program. The concepts were explained in great detail. There was a book available that showed you how to work out each equation. Earlier concepts were reintroduced in the homework on a continual basis as you moved through the year so they were never forgetten. There was a very large amount of homework with each lesson. Heh heh! I believe it is based on a Japanese curriculum.
I helped my older son with AP chemistry when he was 16. It was a war. Luckily I held the car keys so he did every damn problem. The hatred persisted until he went to college. Six years later he thanked me.
Faster…this is the 3rd 4th 5th rail….to actually fire bad Union workers in less then 90 days…
Now the question will they strike if Bloomie demands this in the next contract?
You can’t fire 21,000 “bad” teachers in 90 days. You can fire 21,000 teachers, but to identify which ones are the ones who can best be fired and then rebalance the ones that are left so you have some basically similar student teacher ratios across the city? Can’t be done. Never mind totally redoing the student schedules so that they can take a class that has a teacher to cover it? And all that assumes you can ignore the union contract.
Gonna be ugly. I hope my brother and sister-in-law don’t have to rethink their plan to send the kids to public schools.
I think it’s last in first out.
Plus haven’t you ever heard how hard it was for them to eliminate NYC’s “rubber room” for suspended teachers?
nytimes(dot)com/2010/04/16/nyregion/16rubber.html
Yep, it’s last-in first-out.
Just found out my friend is leaving town which means I have no more mechanism of giving “guest lectures”.
Sorry, NYC kids, one of your best resources that was the difference between the ghetto and the “life of the mind” just left town!
Last in, first out means that there might not be any teachers at all in the buildings that are in the least wanted locations - whether that is because the neighborhood is bad or the commute is difficult or the principal is an a-hole. So then you have to go through the mess of reassigning the older teachers to these schools that they thought they wouldn’t have to deal with anymore, yelling and screaming and claiming that FMLA leave should (or should not) be counted in seniority or whatever. And don’t the NYC principals have a union too? Do they have the right to have input on who gets assigned to them?
What a mess….
Teachers have been turned into whoosies. My wrists still bear the scars where my teachers broke rulers whacking me over the wrists for being a smartass!
Whoosies? LIke from The Grinch that Stole Christmas? Did you mean “wusses”?
I think it’s more like Seinfeld’s Male Bimbo….a Mimbo.
This is a conjunction of Wusses and Pussies. Whussies.
I knew there was some reason my spell checker flagged that word. I ignored it, assuming that it was because it wasn’t in its dictionary. Maybe I should have gone ahead and clicked on it.
Himbo not Mimbo
My Third Grade teacher would poke the sharpened end of a #2 pencil into the top of our heads. Usually drawing blood and leaving the lead lodged in our scalps
Not for misbehaving; she did it when we “didn’t get it”. The last thing you wanted to admit to in her class was that you didn’t understand something.
Can’t say that this every helped my grades in any way.
While I usually back teachers just on general principal, I will be the first to admit that the NYC PS teachers union is a disaster.
Before you back them, you should learn how to spell “principle”.
Flu. You don’t mind you do you?
*cough*
Good morning, Bill
I posted this yesterday (late)
“Bill, we went to Citrus Park Mall today and that area is very nice. Are you living around there? If so, how do you like it?”
Good morning! No that is probably 15 miles west of me. I am a little NE of USF. Parts west and south of USF are seedy. I work out at the Wesley Chapel area, which is nice and clean. Spent my lunchtime Saturday at Lettuce Lake park. Very peaceful, impressive. Great weather.
Bill,
Just a brief history lesson. During the 70’s as USF was growing, a lot of investors built apartments and duplexes near the University for the growing student population. There is never enough On-campus housing. I used to party with friends who lived in that area. Safe, peaceful, quiet and cheap.
Then, the government provided Section 8 funds, and the intended residents changed. The neighborhood went from a young and vibrant student population to a “minority” neighborhood. Shortly thereafter things began to deteriorate. Then we got some Federal “redevelopment” money. More help from the government.
The Students moved away. Drugs sales on the streets and decay took over. Many apartment houses put up fences and gates. Crime rates escalated.
Yep. Section 8 in the late 70 s killed the neighborhood I where I lived in Fresno. Irresponsibility has been rewarded over and over with various government bleeding heart programs. More social ills than benefits are always the result. Same mistake practiced over and over by bleeding hearts. And guess what? The same bleeding hearts live a safe lily white distance away from those social diseases they decree.
If there was any justice in life, Section 8s could only be settled next door to registered lib-dems who vote for such programs. While registered Republicans would be billed directly for the lifetime costs of the neo-con war in Iraq.
Agreed. As long as you add that all social conservatives pay for the upbringing of unwanted children.
“work out at the Wesley Chapel area”
That’s it: I was confusing Wesley Chapel and West Chase.
To heck with housing prices, I have a feeling this Middle East situation is going to send energy prices to the moon.
Definitely NOT a good time to have an SUV or a Ford F-150. Nice spiral of unrest here, because I have observed that the immigrants from the South of the Border, both legal and illegal, seem to heavily favor rather large vehicles. Of course, it’s easy to keep those vehicles in gasoline when your housing, food, children, medical etc. are heavily subsidized.
Palmy,
I think you’re right about energy prices.
At the very least the money changers will capitalize on the growing fear.
IMO we have been bent over an oil barrel for decades. We are sitting ducks and will continue to be as long as we need foreign oil and capital. If this event doesn’t drive a stake through our heart something else will.
These are issues of national security and should be given priority status over anything else, imo.
You’re right, SV. But of course the dumb b*tch at State is gonna be bleating “No one could have seen this coming”.
Remind me again how big the spook (spy) complex is in the US and abroad, and they can’t see it coming. Even as I write this the dumb b*tch is scrambling to get her staff out of the hot spots.
And thus ended the existence of the Israeli state in the Middle East.
If Israel goes down it will only be after they have expended their entire nuclear arsenal.
Riyadh, Damascus, Beirut, Tehran, Cairo, Mecca…
Use ‘em or lose ‘em.
Do Israel’s neighbors understand MAD?
The Samson option.
Masada?
No. Masada was rejection of Rome’s laws and slavery. The Samson option is a bit more.
Basically it’s “If we go, so do you”.
Best intelligence guess on the number of Israeli nucs are around 150, more than enough for Medina and other hot spots.
“Definitely NOT a good time to have an SUV or a Ford F-150″
It just goes to show what short memories J6P has. In 2008 dealers wouldn’t even take gas guzzlers for trade ins. Then when the price of gas dropped again it was all forgotten and the guzzlers started selling again.
And its not just hispanics. Out here in my burg J6P’s dream vehicle is one of those mongo 4 door pickup trucks (the kind that weigh 6000 lbs, have a 400 HP engine and get 12 mpg in city driving). I see tons of them (pun intended) during the dog route in my upper middle class hood. These are not work trucks, as they are super shiney and without a single scratch. They are driven as cars.
Anyway, it will be amusing to see these peeople whinge next summer on TV when gas blasts past $4 and heads towards $5. We’ll get to hear Chuck Norris and Sarah Palin sing “drill, baby, drill”, not understanding that it will have minimal effect on global (and hence domestic) oil prices.
I also love how pick up folks exagerate their mpgs. One coworker’s husband has a V8 Toyota Tundra. She claims he get’s 20 mpg. Never mind that the EPA numbers are 13/17.
He can probably get 20mpg if he keeps his speed down. I often get really high gas mileage figures on the I-25 route between Denver and Colorado Springs. I often get 33-35MPG in my Malibu (rated 28MPG on the highway), and I once got almost 25MPG in my Bronco II (rated 20MPG highway).
I’ve been able to get good mpgs on that stretch too, especially on the downhill from Monument to Springs.
But what I’m saying is that people claim to get above the hwy EPA number in day to day driving, in stop and go traffic, which is risible. Even on the highway its dubious as pickups are not exactly “Aerodynamic” (like say a chevy maibu)
Thank you for using the word “risible.”
…upper middle class hood. These are not work trucks…
If these folks have upper-middle class incomes, they probably have jobs that involve sitting at a desk. What is the great appeal of pickup trucks to such people in the red states? I’ve lived in Arizona for 20 years and I still don’t understand it. People like that probably actually put something in the back of the truck maybe 2 or 3 times a year.
“What is the great appeal of pickup trucks to such people in the red states?”
I have no idea. My high school age son says that for most of his classmates their dream vehicle is a pickup truck. Not a BMW, not a Camaro, Mustang or Corvette, not an Audi or a Ferrari.
They salivate for a top heavy, poor handling, gas guzzling truck.
But why stop there? Why not a school bus or a UPS truck? Wouldn’t those be cool too?
I have a work truck. I need it for my work, but if I am not going to or from a job, or don’t need to carry a load, I drive the little Toyota Tercel. Why waste the gas??
The problem is unpaved roads in the red states. About half the main roads in Idaho are not paved. If you want to get to the towns of Yellowpine or Atlanta, you have no choice but to drive dozens of miles on unpaved roads. This requires a vehicle with high ground clearance, and the cheapest solution is a pickup truck. An SUV is built on a pickup chassis but weighs maybe 30% more, gets correspondingly worse fuel economy, and costs much more to boot.
I’ll admit to a diesel weakness.
The reason people buy trucks is because of their perceived value.
Given the choice between some Hyundai tin can, or a F-150 that has the same MSRP, the truck wins every time. Add to that the better (generally) resale value of trucks.
Most people that don’t live in the major cities don’t have an hour commute, so the gas mileage isn’t that much of a factor. And trucks get a lot better gas mileage than they used to.
We were thinking of getting a “caravan” but over here they are so darn heavy, you have to get a truck to tow them!
http://english.aljazeera.net/indepth/features/2011/01/2011129132243891877.html
Contrast the insightful news and analysis coming out of al-Jazeera with the MSM drek that for the most part completely fails to grasp the potential ramifications of the discontent festering in the Arab world.
Is a contagious, historic, game-changing revolution playing out in Northern Africa before the eyes of the world, or does it merely appear so?
P.S. Good thing global stock markets are decoupled, as otherwise recent political developments in North Africa would be worrisome for the DJIA’s ongoing efforts to clear the12K level.
WSJ Blogs
Dispatch
Real-time updates and new takes on important news stories
* Wreckage in Cairo
* Famed Museum Under Threat From Fire Next Door
* Gulf Stock Markets Fall Sharply
* January 29, 2011, 9:19 AM ET
Saudi Stock Market Falls 6.4%
By Nikhil Lohade
After mostly shrugging off the political upheavals in North Africa in recent weeks, the Saudi stock market finally took fright on Saturday, with the key index dropping 6.4% on concerns about Friday’s dramatic events in Egypt.
“Egypt dominated the headlines here and will clearly shape the direction of regional markets until some sort of resolution is found,” notes a trader at Credit Suisse. Another trader in Riyadh said it was unsurprising that the Saudi market finally succumbed to nervousness about Egypt, given the impact Friday’s events had on Wall Street and other major markets.
…
From the link:
Crucially, as well, the government’s reform of the economy is maintaining a system of support to alleviate the worst effects of poverty.
“Egypt and Tunisia applied the free market principles, but Syria has not. The government still controls the strategic keys to the economy,” said Bilal. “It’s even opening up new jobs in the public sector to absorb more workers.”
Abdullah Dardari, the deputy prime minister for economic affairs, said five years of reforms had increased incomes above the increase in inflation, with the relative spending power of the poor growing faster than the rich.
One in 10 Syrians live in poverty - but this figure is far below Egypt’s rate of some 40 per cent. Official figures in Syria show unemployment fell from over 12 per cent in 2005 to 8.1 per cent in 2009, one per cent lower than the official rate in Egypt, where some analysts put it as high as 25 per cent. Average salaries in Syria have risen to $200 over the past few years, more than double the rate in Egypt.
The government has promised increased spending on social security and training for the out-of-work and aims to curb rapid population growth of 2.45 per cent by raising the minimum age of marriage.
————————–
Once again, confirming the fact that “welfare” is for the benefit of the elite.
so it wont matter much to me i drive less then 5000 miles a year and the house is heated by gas…so let fly
We are a dumb country anyway, we should have demanded R39 in the walls and R52 in the ceiling for all those Mcmansions and tract houses with no trees anywhere in sight…but no…
we should have demanded R39 in the walls and R52 in the ceiling
Even in our very mild climate new construction requires R-30 in the ceiling, R-18 in the wall & floors…
I agree 100% but
The down with regulation crowd would have hat a seizure.
What we should have done and it’ s not too late is tax the crap out of gas and use the money to reduce payroll taxes. Make energy more expensive and make labor less expensive would be a great way to create jobs.
The down with regulation crowd would have hat a seizure.
I’m not sure how aNYCdj meant it, but it’s possible that housing consumers could have demanded it without gov’t intervention.
“Make energy more expensive and make labor less expensive would be a great way to create jobs.”
Dear Komrade,
As someone who sells his labor I have an issue with your plan.
But have no fear as the PTB are in the execution phase of said plan.
P.S. We all sell our labor.
You are either an owner or an employee. And this entire sub-group is owned by the PTB.
“going to send energy prices to the moon.”
That would be conventional logic. The kicker is that we are in a speculative commodities bubble and a spike will likely prick it. BB will blow it again despite the cost of human life to follow. Rinse and repeat.
+1
It’s never a bubble if you are invested in it. LOL
Closing the Suez Canal will really put a crimp in Europe’s oil supply. It was closed 1967 - 1975 and oil prices went way up IIRC during that period.
Tankers will carry about half as much if they have to take the route around the Cape of Good Hope. I wonder if those guys who have all those tankers parked in the South China Sea will clean up.
“Tankers will carry about half as much if they have to take the route around the Cape of Good Hope.”
Interesting statement: Why would tankers taking the route around the Cape of Good Hope carry half as much oil?
Why ??
Volatile weather ??
Okay, I think I understand what you meant: It’s not that the tankers will carry half as much oil, it’s that half as much oil will be delivered because the distance the tankers travel will be stretched out.
That’s what I meant: the distance around the Cape will cut by about half the amount delivered per tanker. Instead of getting from the Gulf in, say, 10 days it would take perhaps 20 days around the Cape.
This would also put the Somali pirates out of business.
With a ruler and a world map, I estimate the distance between Bahrain and Amsterdam as 9,095 miles via Suez or 17,120 miles around the Cape. At max speed of 18 mph for a supertanker, that’s 21 days via Suez or 39 days via the Cape.
This of course is just a back-of-the-envelope approximation.
Geez mate, the distance from Paris to Moscow is less than driving from Michigan to Florida. I think your 9000 miles via the Suez is way off. It’s 2969 miles as the crow flies; add in an extra 2000 for the sea route and you are at about 5000 miles.
OK since you asked….
I googled and found this handy site.
http://www.searates.com/reference/portdistance/
It says Bahrain to Amsterdam via Suez is 7406 statute miles and via the Cape is 12,989 statute miles. The default is through the Med so to calculate the Cape route I added separate legs Bahrain to Capetown, and then Capetown to Amsterdam.
The site’s default speed is 14 knots, which gives 19 days 4 hours via Suez, and 33 days 14 hours by the Cape.
Use knots with nautical miles, use MPH with statute miles. 14 knots is about 16 MPH.
That Searates site used nautical miles which I multiplied by 1.15 to get approx. statute miles. The calculation of time was performed by the site itself using nautical miles and knots.
I love it when youse guyz do calculashunz.
VLCC always go the Cape route, and they’re always full. Cargos can trade owners many
times all while in route. Very little oil is
trans ships through the Suez.
Really? Are they too big to fit the Suez Canal? Adding in some load/unload times, that’s about 100 days per round-trip to Europe, or 3.5 trips per year.
Are most of the trans-Levant pipelines servicing the Med ports like Naples?
I found this on an oil tanker website:
Although THIS shows a 300+ tanker southbound it is possible to transit northbound, first the ship stops at Ain Suhkna HERE - although the tanker end of the town isnt quite so cute. At Ain Suhkna the tanker moors to a monobouy and discharges part of her cargo to a draft of about 14 mts. At this reduced draft she then transits the canal and proceeded to Sidi Kerir HERE and reloads the same grade of oil back to her loaded draft and proceeds on to her destination. Ain Suhka and Sidi Kerir, both in Egypt, are connected by a large oil pipeline system thus oil is pumped overland and loaded tankers can make a voyaage from the Perishing Gulf to Europe fully loaded without rounding the Cape.
Even with the longer trans times and distance,
it is less costly to ship via the cape due to the
economy of scale. Check out the tonnage of the ships using the Suez.
The reason supertankers exist to begin with is that it makes shipping oil cheaper, not faster.
Nobody cares how fast the oil gets there, as long as it gets there on some kind of dependable schedule.
(Exception……the US Navy)
Yes, but contrast how much oil was being produced in the US then compared to now.
Live coverage of the Egyptian riots. Considerably better that CNN.
http://english.aljazeera.net/watch_now/
Not anymore:
Egypt shuts down Al Jazeera bureau
Network’s licences cancelled and accreditation of staff in Cairo withdrawn by order of information minister.
It’s still on, Carrie.
No wonder the Obama Administration and the MSM are clamoring for a kill switch on the Internet. Makes “perception management” more difficult.
I look at it and I wonder if it could happen here. We have a significant percentage of young adults who are unemployed or underemployed and saddled with college debt. Offsetting that, we have a significant number employed by the military. This is the population most likely to take to the streets.
I think it would take some serious changes for this country to ignite - cutting our military so more young adults are unemployed, boomers continuing to work instead of retiring and freeing up jobs, more cuts in food stamps, more inflation in necessities. Some of these trends are set to take off. I think the keys are large numbers of hungry, unemployed young adults with time on their hands to participate in protests and little hope for a brighter future. Healthcare, housing, and gas are less immediate and would probably not be enough to get people in the streets.
We may be better off to reduce the retirement age. Encourage more boomers to take reduced SS at an earlier age. If the benefits are set correctly, it could be a net negative in SS payments to the boomer generation. Those 50-60 year olds who have lost the game of musical chairs and are now permanently unemployed might jump at it. Those who become unemployed in the next few years might also take it. And as the boomers leave the workforce, there will be plenty of jobs for younger folks.
I have always felt the continuous extensions of unemployment benefits as well as continued support of current state funding by the feds is to reduce the chance of the sparks flying here.
It is.
I’m old enough to remember the civil right riots. Believe me, you don’t want that. And the number of poor is even larger these days. (little known fact: it was called the civil right movement because it didn’t just affect minorities, but all poor people who couldn’t afford justice)
Yes, absolutely.
It’s often been said here, by myself and others, that welfare is for the rich, not the poor. It keeps the masses placated so that everyone else (especially those with the wealth) can carry on with their lives.
I’ve often countered the “free-market, no welfare” types with the question: “Do you think all of those people on welfare would suddenly go out and find jobs if we were to take away welfare? Do you really believe they will suddenly “wake up” and become productive, law-abiding citizens?”
Not a chance in hell. They will take up arms and TAKE what they want or need, and kill or injure anyone who gets in their way.
Which poses the question to those that want to cut off unemployment during an ongoing extended period of high unemployment (2+ years of nearly 20 percent unemployment) that shows little sign of abating, what is going to happen to those people and what are they going to do when that meager support goes away?
I know a number of 50-somethings that would love to get out “out of the way” of the youngins’ and perhaps pursue less lucrative but more satisfying work. The first time you have a friend drop dead like a Japanese salaryman it makes you think.
But besides SS you need to be able to have affordable health care.
But haven’t you heard? You should have be able to work a regular job until you’re at least 70 or you’re just a slacker.
My BIL, a 61-year-old physician, just lost his health insurance that had been provided by a hospital where he consulted. He did not have a COBRA option. He has been turned down by Blue Cross, Blue Shield, United Health and USAA. He is perfectly healthy - swims or rides his bike daily, no medications, and his only health problem was a bad knee from an old sports injury that had a knee replacement last year. Nobody will insure him. He started a medical account and is praying that he stays healthy for another four years until Medicare kicks in. He had no trouble insuring his family (my sister is in her mid-50s.)
That must them there death panels we all knowed was a comin’ with Obammy’s health care!
Where do they live?
Wow, REhobbyist, I am so sorry to hear that. This is one of the main reasons I support universal care. Imagine if he were a “regular” working stiff, with no savings…
yup, need SS and Medicare both before we can get out of the way.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/8290753/Young-and-unemployed-a-generation-scarred-for-life.html
I think youth unrest will happen in Europe first. In the UK almost a million young people under the age of 24 are unemployed. In the PIIGS its even worse. While their US counterparts can be kept distracted with video games, iPods, and Jersey Shore or Glee episodes, European youth seem more susceptible to taking it to the streets.
Foreclosures cloud future of redevelopment zones
BY KENNYWALTER Staff Writer
Actions impact Broadway Arts,
Hotel Campus developments T wo of Long Branch’s six redevelopment zones
— the Broadway Arts Center and Hotel Campus — are in financial limbo with stakeholders working toward a resolution of foreclosure actions.
A notice of foreclosure was filed in state Superior Court on Jan. 6 by TICIC Inc., formerly the Thrift Institutions Community Investment Corporation of New Jersey, which holds the first mortgage on the Broadway Arts Center (BAC). The action names BAC and the Community Loan Fund of New Jersey as defendants.
Todd Katz, a principal of BAC, said last week the legal proceedings are on hold and that the principals are seeking a development partner for the lower Broadway zone.
“
“There are several interested parties and it is just a matter of working out a structure that works for everyone, the bank and the city and the potential development partner.”
Snicker…
Katz said he is hopeful that development of the zone will start sometime in 2011.
“We are looking forward to having something happen this year,” he said. “Development seems to be picking up around the state, so it will be a good time to get things going.”
BAC includes some 190 properties and 47 vacant parcels located along the Broadway corridor, which is the first 9 acres of the entire Broadway redevelopment zone.
Three property owners in BAC sued the city, challenging the taking of their properties through eminent domain. In April, the state Appellate Division of Superior Court ruled that the redevelopment ordinances in the Broadway Arts district are invalid.
The three properties are Rainbow Liquors owned by Kavita and Gopal Panday, The Lighthouse Institute for Evangelism owned by the Rev. Kevin Brown, and a property owned by Dr. Carlos Rivera.
Careful what you wish for, they might just give ‘em back….
Emanuel Opponent Runs Freddie Mac Ad
Chico ad attacking Rahm Emanuel over Freddie Mac connection.
Who is this Chico guy?
http://nalert.blogspot.com/2011/01/emanuel-oppenent-runs-freddie-mac-ad.html
“Who is this Chico guy?”
I don’t know but if I was him I’d stay away from any windows.
They’re not building anymore welcome mats…buy now or be…
SAGINAW — One year after Saginaw received $17.4 million in federal stimulus funds, plans to rehabilitate the city’s sputtering housing market continue to evolve.
The project at one point involved plans to renovate 138 homes. After closer evaluation, an official now says 55 to 70 renovated homes is a more likely target.
To compensate, the city plans to ramp up spending on demolition
The city in 2010 more than doubled its previous record of single-year blight demolitions with 538, Thorns said, with 225 of those coming courtesy of the $17.4 million grant. Other state aid helped topple the rest of the eyesores.
Thorns said the city plans to knock down about 400 of 495 “targeted” homes in Saginaw over the next two years, including 244 properties in the Covenant area, 124 in the Cathedral District and 127 in the northeast neighborhood officials hope to transform into a vegetative-heavy “Green Zone” welcome mat for visitors arriving from the interstate.
$283,000 per home? (17,000,000/70)
BULLCRAP!
SCAM!
Claim of 500 jobs in Silver Springs venture examined
For the past 24 years, Charlie LaRocco has had an ideal vantage point to watch the comings and goings at the Silver Springs attraction.
His Italian restaurant, LaRocco’s III, sits directly across State Road 40 from the park. LaRocco has seen five different groups manage the renowned site.
LaRocco said the persistent recession makes it unlikely he’ll be around for a silver anniversary. That explains why he is hopeful for a sixth swap at the top.
When Marion County officials recently announced a move to bring Florida’s oldest tourist attraction under their control, they touted the plan as an economic development initiative. They want to use the massive springs to anchor an “outdoor adventure” venue for ecotourists — and create 500 jobs in the process.
Some critics agree the hodge-podge of shuttered shops, tired hangers-on and somewhat thriving national chains along East SR 40 needs foot traffic. But the critics, including some business owners along the strip, think the jobs target is too ambitious and would come at too great a price for the public.
Say what you will about Jerry Brown but his proposal to eliminate local redevelopment agencies is spot on. Outdoor adventure, ecotourists…lol
Comment from
Billion-dollar fund will help struggling Florida homeowners
Divide the available funds by the residents of florida and give us all an equal share (actually i am kidding — give it all back to those who paid the taxes). Or did i misunderstand the phrase “equal treatment under the law” to only apply to those who feel mistreated for whatever reason. This cannot and will not be allowed to continue.
markeraymond
4:11 PM, 1/29/2011
Any truth to “equal treatment under the law” ? Doesn`t seem like ” steps being taken to ensure fairness.” Or does section 8 housing make it fair?
“Aimed at unemployed homeowners or those who have jobs but don’t earn enough to pay their mortgage”
Fourteenth Amendment to the United States Constitution
Its Due Process Clause prohibits state and local governments from depriving persons of life, liberty, or property without certain steps being taken to ensure fairness.
Section 1. All persons born or naturalized in the United States, and subject to the jurisdiction thereof, are citizens of the United States and of the State wherein they reside. No State shall make or enforce any law which shall abridge the privileges or immunities of citizens of the United States; nor shall any State deprive any person of life, liberty, or property, without due process of law; nor deny to any person within its jurisdiction the equal protection of the laws.
http://www.palmbeachpost.com/money/foreclosures/billion-dollar-fund-will-help-struggling-florida-homeowners-1216812.html - 87k -
The other 86 COMMENTS are fun reading.
Billion-dollar fund will help struggling Florida homeowners
By Kimberly Miller Palm Beach Post Staff Writer
Thousands of struggling homeowners in Florida will receive up to a year-and-a-half’s worth of mortgage payments from the state’s Hardest Hit program, which opens for applications next month.
It’s the first time the more than $1 billion in federal funding will be available statewide.
Aimed at unemployed homeowners or those who have jobs but don’t earn enough to pay their mortgage, the money, which was announced last year, can be used to make loan payments for up to 18 months and to bring delinquent loans current.
This is another bail out to the Lenders . As far as I’m concerned now
all these bail-outs are discrimination if its funded by the Government .
Every penny that given to the Banks is discrimination by the Government . Are renters getting anything for instance .
“Are renters getting anything for instance .”
Oh yes, there getting something. So are people who have been paying their mortgages on time or paying them off. They are getting, they are getting…. Damn, I`m having a Sputnik moment.
How much do you want to bet that these FBs can take the govt money and use it to pay their mortgages, then still deduct the interest payments from their taxes?
I am getting so sick and tired of these whining FBs (and the whining banks, who ultimately benefit from all these bailouts).
are FBs a ‘protected class’?
Taxpayers are the only non-protected class.
Spain’s jobless rate surges to 20.33%
MADRID (AFP) – Spain announced Friday its jobless rate surged to a 13-year record above 20 percent at the end of 2010, the highest level in the industrialized world, as the economy struggled for air.
It was more bad news for an economy fighting to regain the trust of financial markets and avoid being trapped in a debt quagmire that has engulfed Greece and Ireland and now menaces Portugal.
Another 121,900 people joined Spain’s unemployment queues in the final quarter of the year, pushing the total to 4.697 million people, said the national statistics institute INE.
All those jobless people will have plenty of time to attend open houses at the 1.2 million unsold properties built by speculators. They can use their EU and IMF bailouts (the latter largely paid for by Uncle Sam) for downpayments. Then all that homebuying will stimulate the economy again. See? It’s all good.
/sarc off.
This is about where they were in the early-1990s recession, when my math professor friend was over there looking for (unavailable) professoring work.
Playing chicken with the debt ceiling
NEW YORK (CNNMoney) — Bond experts to Congress: Turn down the volume on the debt ceiling.
Some lawmakers are hoping to use the upcoming vote to raise the cap on federal borrowing as do-or-die time for fiscal responsibility. They say they will only support an increase if Congress goes along with spending cuts.
But bond experts say Congress is engaged in risky business. They say lawmakers should not use the debt ceiling as an artificial deadline for deficit reduction. Instead, lawmakers should focus on crafting a comprehensive long-term plan for fiscal responsibility.
The bond market wants to see a “vision on deficit reduction but not within a politically sensitive time frame,” said Jim Vogel, head of interest rate strategies at FTN Financial.
The world’s largest bond investor thinks the saber-rattling is ill-advised.
This could have a silver lining for grandma and grandpa, who can’t afford to live off near-zero percent CD returns. Low rates are great for Wall Street banks, and not so good for Main Street retirees.
Savers are being robbed by inflation (which contrary to what Timmay and Blackhawk Ben chose to believe, is rising steeply in the realm of real people here in the USA). I’ve bought stuff I could’ve done without just because I know the prices are only going higher.
“I’ve bought stuff I could’ve done without”
Sometimes I save money I could have spent, just because I know I’d rather play than work.
I’ve bought stuff I could’ve done without……..
Stimulus. The plan is working.
All hail obama.
There is no game of chicken. Ron and Rand Paul, and maybe a handful of pro-Liberty candidates (as opposed to the hijacked Tea Party dupes around Palin and her ilk) are vehemently opposed to raising the debt ceilings. The rest of the Republicrats will go along to get along. The Establishment GOP will make grumbling noises for the benefit of Main Street yahoos who still believe them to be “fiscal conservatives,” but Wall Street and the neo-cons need new trillions in stimulus, bailout and globo-cop money. So the debt ceiling will be raised, period.
Fitch downgrades Egypt outlook to negative as violence and protests mount.
CAIRO (AP) — Fitch Rating on Friday revised down its outlook for Egypt, dropping it to “negative” as mass protests in the country turned violent, engulfing the capital and other cities in a serious challenge to President Hosni Mubarak’s 30-year rule.
Fitch said it was holding steady Egypt’s other ratings, including its long-term foreign currency issuer default rating, which was held at the investment grade BB+.
“The Outlook revision reflects the recent upsurge in political protests and the uncertainty this adds to the political and economic outlook ahead of September’s elections,” said Richard Fox, head of Fitch’s Middle East and Africa Sovereign Ratings. Egypt is slated to hold presidential elections in the fall.
Fitch is a joke, as are all the rating agencies. The fact that the USA still has an AAA rating despite our banana republic fiscal policies tells you all you need to know about their credibility.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704653204576111443650347716.html?mod=WSJ_World_LeadStory
Situation in Egypt devolving into lawlessness and chaos. In many US urban areas, too, the veneer of civilization is very thin.
So true, Sammy.
The only reason it hasn’t happened here (yet) is because so many Americans think it can’t happen here. Once the sheeple begin to understand that there is NO “recovery” and that we are no different than all those other countries with unsustainable debt loads, watch out.
State Farm wants to raise average rates by 28 percent
By Julie Patel
Sun Sentinel
Posted: 3:12 p.m. Saturday, Jan. 29, 2011
State Farm Florida Insurance, the state’s largest private property insurer, wants to raise rates by a statewide average of 28 percent.
Although Florida has dodged a direct hit by hurricanes the past five years, the company says the increase is needed to cover rising losses for claims unrelated to storms such as sinkholes. The increase comes after the company received approval in 2009 to raise average statewide rates by 28 percent and approval in November to raise them by 6.6 percent.
Florida just can’t get any love!
BTW, this just brings prices lower. In the long-term prices are rational, and the monthly nut is dominated by something known as income.
It’s time for a reprise:
In Miami, Ron Shuffield, president of Esslinger-Wooten-Maxwell Realtors, predicted that a limited supply of land coupled with demand from baby boomers and foreigners would prolong the boom indefinitely.
“South Florida,” he said, “is working off of a totally new economic model than any of us have ever experienced in the past.”
BWAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHHAHAHAHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH!!!!
Another price fixing monopoly ,the Insurance Companies .Since when
does a insurance company not have any risks and gets to pass any loss
on to the consumer by price increases to this degree . The Insurance Companies are saying that they are entitled to a defined profit ,rather than a concept of some years they win and some years they lose . Protection for profit margins is something that the Monopolies are
getting and they are raking in extra gouging because they can . Combined with the fact that there is forced insurance payments ,otherwise the consumers would reject it ,its a rigged game .
“Another price fixing monopoly ,the Insurance Companies .”
Matt Taibbi’s Griftopia has a disturbing section on the monopolistic death grip big insurance has on Main Street U.S.A.
It isn’t called the “FIRE” sector for nothing.
They are literally burning our nation down.
+1
“The Insurance Companies are saying that they are entitled to a defined profit…”
And they’re getting it.
State Farm wants to raise average rates by 28 percent ??
State Farm sucks…Their underwriting has gotten so bad I do not use nor recommend them anymore….
Bankrupt filings at a record in 2010 for San Luis Obispo County
Falling behind on mortgages is the main reason, complicated by credit card debt and joblessness
http://tinyurl.com/4ja8vfp
“San Luis Obispo County…Falling behind on mortgages…, complicated by credit card debt and joblessness”
Sounds like a perfect storm for bankruptcy filings. Good thing it is locally limited to San Luis Obispo County or we might collectively be in trouble.
I’ve been to San Luis Obispo County and there’s no there there.
Remind me again what they produce that’s desirable on the world market?
“Remind me again what they produce that’s desirable on the world market?”
It’s the weather. A 3/2 ranch house worth $145K anywhere else costs about $435k there right now after tumbling from a bubble peak of $780k. My guess is that home equity extraction has supported the local economy beyond that possible given the local wages, so I expect that the bankruptcies will continue.
BTW, you’re right, FPSS–very little is produced there.
It’s the weather ??
The little pub I visit down there does not have a heater or air conditioner…
Remind me again what they produce that’s desirable on the world market ??
Nothing really…Its impossible to export what they have…Its a prisoner of place…Its called “peace of mind”…At least in the parts that I visit..
I have perfect peace of mind sitting inside the most populous place in history.
Perhaps space has nothing to do with it and economics everything?
One of life’s great truths is that peace of mind does not come from place, but rather from within.
Perhaps space has nothing to do with it and economics everything ? but rather from within ?
I believe I am quite a bit older than you and Pbear and retrospect and my senses react differently then when I was your age…A sunset walk on the beach with my partner of 42 years with our two pals on the leash is priceless for me and also for her I suppose…. Everything is said without saying anything….
Our two kids play in the low surf…The Mrs.
and I also have our quiet walks.
“A sunset walk on the beach with my partner of 42 years with our two pals on the leash is priceless for me and also for her I suppose…”
I see you have discovered that life’s most precious gifts cannot be bought with money, though admittedly, money may help enable one to enjoy them…
SBO has Cal Poly. Some old family friends retired to Los Osos many years ago when it was cheap. It’s close to Morro Bay and Cayucos, real treasures. I’d live there in a heartbeat.
Sunset walks on the beach simply cannot compare with the simple pleasure to be had in plinking rats with my .22 at the municipal dump, while enjoying a Pabst Blue Ribbon or two. Just sayin’….
Come visit. Then try a hot .270 load on a
coyote at 300 yards.
I believe I am quite a bit older than you and Pbear and retrospect …
To anyone not “in the know”, I present Riverside Park — the hidden gem of New York City.
Everyone knows its flashier cousin, Central Park but we know better.
“Come visit. Then try a hot .270 load on a coyote at 300 yards.”
Senselessly killing wild dogs for fun. Great sport- for the mentally disturbed.
Sammy - I am rolling on the floor laughing like crazy. You are making an art form out of the contrarian lifestyle. My image of you in said pursuit has you wearin’ one ‘a them denim overalls fastened only on the top left bib button. So’s to keep yer shootin’ arm unencumbered, an’ all.
A role model for us all you are, sir!
I can see I’m going to have to further embroider the ol’ 40 acres an’ a mule-with-still-simmerin’-in-the-background image to keep up.
It’s the part of the central CA coast that’s as far as you can get from the insanity of both LA and the SF bay area at the same time.
Some good wine is made there, but wine is fungible and there’s a glut on the world market at present.
I would say SLO is a good place to retire IF you have piles of money saved up. Sonoma used to be a decent alternative until the gangs moved in. Resale is problematic - even WR Hearst’s heirs couldn’t unload his place in the county and eventually had to just donate it to the state.
Seriously? Gangs in Sonoma County? Haven’t been there in a long, long time, but my dad used to live up that way, and I used to visit pretty often ~15-20 years ago. It was such a beautiful place! That makes me want to cry.
“Good thing it is locally limited to San Luis Obispo County or we might collectively be in trouble.”
According to Obama, we’re in this together, so you better stash your valuables in an empty cigar tube and hide it.
Rachel Maddow, Bill Maher, so-called ‘progressives’ in America stop repeating the falsehood, ‘Americans got paid back on bailouts.’
http://maxkeiser.com/2011/01/30/rachel-maddow-bill-maher-so-called-progressives-in-america-stop-repeating-the-falsehood-americans-got-paid-back-on-bailouts/
This is 100% correct, and should be on the major networks! Of course that will never happen.
You forgot to log out and log back in under one of your other usernames.
Didn’t many bailout costs get treated in typical Enron-accounting shell game fashion by shifting the liability to the Fed balance sheet through toxic MBS purchases? Not sure whether that fixed things or not…
Don’t forget all the losses we’re going to incur when all the govt-backed mortgages fail — the only mortgages really available since mid-2007. IMHO, we are going to see trillions of dollars in losses from all of these refinances and 3.5% down FHA purchases (getting the loans off of the private lenders’ balance sheets, and onto the taxpayers’ balance sheet).
There is so much to “the bailouts” that is not even covered in the MSM.
I thought it was Richard Maddow.
Not cool. You may or may not like Rachael Maddow’s politics, but she is one of the smartest, funniest, most insightful commentators in Tee Vee land. Her and Keith Olberman also call out a lot of hypocrites on the right that richly deserve it. As far as who Rachael shares her bed or life with, I don’t give a damn.
“Not cool.”
Fair enough. As I have said here before 2 of the best neighbors we have ever had were a couple of women who lived together. Wonderful people who were great to my kids and who I actually enjoyed doing things for around their house. We moved 5 years ago and we still stay in touch. But I do find it odd that off color remarks like the one I made are looked at one way and people with another point of view can say something just as off color and it is acceptable.
The remarks left Maddow fuming for what she perceived as their apparent xenophobic racism. She went on to explain that the crowd’s reaction was barely audible not because some attendees didn’t laugh, but because their amusement was “sort of a little bit muffled by the white hoods.”
“she is one of the smartest, funniest, most insightful commentators in Tee Vee land”
She is one of the cancer cells eating away at our society. Progressives like her will not stop until they overturn the constitution and institute their perverted social justice and democratic socialism (aka communism).
Bigot.
Maddow is the very definition of supercilious smarminess. Every time I try to watch and listen her intonation it makes me want to push her down a flight of stairs. Not in a mean way, but just to get her to use a normal tone of voice.
wmbz
This is a tape that addresses what is really happening . All the secret
bailouts are nothing but a looting by the Culprits . I say bust this
violation of public trust and get the money back .These criminals had no right to do this and the bribed Government had no right to go along with it . With the money they are pocketing the Money Changer Middle men
are investing casino bets in Foreign Countries . The Government is a
traitor to the people if they support self interest groups that compromise our security ,our financial well being ,and more important the looting of our taxpayer coffers . The culprits have no problem passing the pain to the Government and the Majority . These acts are now National Security issues really in that the looting has compromised everything .
Somehow the public finds out about all this after all the looting takes place after they have been lied to . Wall Street just wants to raise
prices and make money . Banks just want to screw you . Insurance Companies just want you money but don’t want to pay claims . Its a takeover by the Industrial complex …no question .
Wait a minute. Why would liberals like Maddow and Maher defend the Wall Street bailout?
Good question.
I think the report is outright disinformation. But I’m not a fan of either one, yet it doesn’t seem to fit their M.O. that they would, in ANY shape or form, defend Wall St.
Dylan Ratigan, the gutsiest commentator on MSNBC or any other MSM network, has ripped the banksters and their hired help on Capital Hill a new one for their avarice and arrogance.
Thats how I view Dylan Ratigan Sammy ,one of the few that is trying to expose Wall Street and the Bankers . They just can’t fool Dylan Ratigan ,he knows to much .
Amen, Wiz!
Good thing this could never happen in our neighborhoods:
Is the Egyptian Government Using Agents Provocateur to Justify a Crack Down On the Protesters?
Al Jazeera reported today:
[Al Jazeera reporter] Ayman Mohyeldin reports that eyewitnesses have said “party thugs” associated with the Egyptian regime’s Central Security Services - in plainclothes but bearing government-issued weapons - have been looting in Cairo. Ayman says the reports started off as isolated accounts but are now growing in number.
The Telegraph reports:
“Thugs” going around on motorcycles looting shops and houses, according to Al Jazeera. They say they are getting more and more reports of looting. More worryingly, one group of looters who were captured by citizens in the upmarket Cairo district of Heliopolis turned out to have ID cards identifying them as members of the regime security forces.
Similarly, Egyptian newspaper Al MasryAlyoum provides several eyewitness accounts of agents provacateur:
Thugs looting residential neighborhoods and intimidating civilians are government-hires, say eyewitnesses.
In Nasr City, an Eastern Cairo neighborhood, residents attempting to restore security told Al-Masry Al-Youm that looters were caught yesterday.
“They were sent by the government. The government got them out of prison and told them to rob us,” says Nameer Nashaat, a resident working alongside other youths to preserve order in the district. “When we caught them, they said that the Ministry of Interior has sent them.”
In Masr al-Qadeema, another district, scrap metal dealer Khaled Barouma, confirmed the same account. “The government let loose convicts. They let them out of prisons. We all know them in this neighborhood,” he said, adding that the neighborhood’s youth is trying to put the place in order by patrolling its streets with batons.
“The government wants people to believe that this is an uprising of convicts, which is not the case. The government is the one that is a criminal,” Khalil Fathy, a local journalist covering the events closely, said.
In our neighborhoods people have guns.
Academy Sports advertises the Mossberg Maverick home defense pump-action shotgun (18.5″ barrel, 6-shot capacity) for $189.95. That’s their regular price.
Worth it, for the intended purpose?
Any under-$200 shotgun is just fine for home defense.
If something is valuable enough to be worth defending with a firearm, I wouldn’t suggest a sub-$200 shotgun. The minimum would be a Remington 870 or a Mossberg 590. A Bennelli M4 would be premo if you have the dinero.
Where I live, a Winchester Defender can often be found for under $200.
Very reliable and easy to maintain and handle.
But for a firefight? I rather have a 9 round Browning 410 auto. Distance, accuracy, speed, reliability and rounds.
May I suggest a load of flechette rounds for the mossberg.
I’ll would like to acquire a Keltec KSG.
aaaaaaaaaaah. One for the back door, one
for the front. Just found out about them about a month ago.
I just watched a couple of Youtube videos starring this shotgun. I also want two!
“The minimum would be a Remington 870 or a Mossberg 590. A Bennelli M4 would be premo if you have the dinero.”
Myself and my cheap, trusty old 870 Wingmaster routinely school my friends and their high dollar Benelli’s when shooting skeet.
Benelli’s ARE nice. Until you have to fix them
And you WILL have to fix them.
OK, maybe it’s just me. That Kel-Tec looks nice. But really, please help me out here. What the Sam Hill good are rails on a frickin’ scatter gun? The Kel-Tec site sez “for optics”. If I am using a pump, it is because I am up close and personal.
I LIKE black guns, and given half an excuse, I’d probably go out and get one of these once the bugs have been worked out, just because.
Have you ever seen absolute rookies at something, who can’t tell their rear ends from their elbows, all gussied up with $1000 worth of duds and gear to accompany their execrable performances? Laughable.
So I’d buy one of these scatter guns that look all Terminator-y and mount a Leupold scope on it. I think the prospective bad guy would be immobilized with hysterical laughter, getting a cramp in his stomach, and thus neutralized.
I guess at least I wouldn’t be sued for shooting him. But really, there’s got to be a more direct reason. Thanks.
What the Sam Hill good are rails on a frickin’ scatter gun?
Tactical light? If you’re using it for close quarters/home defense, a tac light is probably good for identifying your target so you don’t shoot your 15 year old daughter’s boyfriend who’s in the middle of climbing in the window…
of course then you can add the laser sight, scope, muzzle brake, 3-point tactical sling, side saddle, extended magazine tube, collapsible stock, and all the other fixins
Personally, I’m happy with my Mossy 500. In retrospect, the 590 would be nice, but for ~$300, the 500 is a nice scatter gun.
Drummin, thanks for the insight. Duh. Never even thought in those terms.
I live by myself, Akita-less for the moment. Thus, there are no benign things that go bump in the night in my world.
Thank you again for eddicating me.
Longtime reader finally biting the bullet as my daughter is starting school in the fall. Have a chance to lock my mortgage today (Sunday - 4.875% 30 year with 0 points at WF). Will the Egypt situation/oil prices push mortgage rates up or down next week? Any insight much appreciated! Thanks.
if Obama acts like Jimmy Carter and allows the Moslem brotherhood to take over like Carter allowed the Shah to fall, I predict that a flight to safety would cause a small drop in interest rates. However, Obama has people around him telling him about 1979 and what a surge in oil prices did to the economy so I think that after pushing behind the scenes for regime change, they will now support a version of the present government as Biden is already doing. However, it will take time and repression to undo this so I think that this situation will not impact interest rates very much one way or another for the next week. I think the unemployment report will be much more important, that comes out on Friday and and the street’s guesses before then will move the credit markets.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2011/01/29/AR2011012904417.html?wprss=rss_world
Hillary says Egypt is stable, so there’s nothing to worry about. Meanwhile, anti-US anger is palpable on the streets of Cairo. This is not going to end well.
“Hillary says Egypt is stable…”
That means Goldman Sachs is shorting Mubarak.
“Hillary says Egypt is stable…”
Another Jim Cramer moment.
I’m going long on tear gas manufacturers.
if Obama acts like Jimmy Carter and allows the Moslem brotherhood to take over like Carter allowed the Shah to fall
This situation is out of Obama’s control, just like Iran was out of Carter’s control. There are some dynamics we, the US, are powerless to change or even influence.
I thought the USA was all about democracy Worldwide . Looks like we favor stability instead of democracy for suppressed and oppressed people .
Right Hilary, Egypt is just real stable . Millions of people in the street demanding the removal of a oppressive leader with economic complaints of unemployment and poverty of the people .
Would like to know what the stock market is going to do on Monday .
The early Settlers in this Country fought for their freedom ,why wouldn’t other Countries want to do it also .
In the final analysis if people start to hurt to much they want change . All we care about is stability for oil I would imagine .
(Socialism+Globalization) is not about democracy and freedom.
Globalism seems to be about monopolies and middle men taking advantage of disadvantaged people in Countries .
That’s what socialism is. Globalization is doing it on a grand scale.
No, Blue Sky, that’s what “fascism” is.
I thought the USA was all about democracy Worldwide
Worldwide, but not here.
http://market-ticker.org/akcs-www?post=178581
Gibbs: All governments around the world have to be responsive to the people they serve.
Uh huh.
Like the statement Barack made that he didn’t come to Washington to serve the banks?
Like TARP, passed over 100:1 objections of The American People?
Like Obamacare, passed over monstrous objections of The American People?
Like running $1.7 trillion in deficits last year, and over $4.5 trillion in the last three years, with no plan to solve the problem or even slow it down? Remember, the CBO just updated their projections, after your boss added $500 billion more to the deficit for this year.
Like false claims - lies - on virtually every single political claim made during his campaign?
Like refusal to insist on prosecution of those who filed false affidavits - 150,000 cases of [robo-signing] perjury?
Like refusal to insist on indicting Bernanke for perjury before Congress, when he said he wouldn’t monetize the debt?
Like refusal to insist on indicting the banksters that caused this collapse in the first place, even though we have sworn testimony of intentional deception, such as the Citibank bad loans that were made and sold off?
Like refusal to deal with the fact that if we cut to zero every Federal Program other than Medicare, Social Security, Medicaid, Unemployment and Welfare, we would still be running a deficit after you paid the interest on the debt? That is, you can’t even balance the budget today if you not only cut the Pentagon to zero but you also cut everything else to zero, including the budget for the guy who sweeps your carpet in the Oval Orifice, and this is ENTIRELY your responsibility.
There’s no inflation here, right? That’s why cotton is up 300% in the last two years, wheat has nearly doubled, oil is trading near $90, oats have more than doubled, soybeans have nearly doubled… all but cotton in the last year?
Responsive to the people Mr. Gibbs? Really?
It has everything to do with Goldmanization.
No it was not out of our control in Iran. We made a decision not to support the Shah by making it clear we would not support a crackdown. It was a disaster for our country and ironically for the people of Iran, who were progressing under the Shah.Even though he was a dictator, he had raged a tough war to break the power of the mullahs and could have done it again but it would have been ugly. In the real world tough choices have to made. We give over 1.5 billion dollars to Egypt a year and the military will back up a friendly regime, if we give them a green light. The sad reality is true democracy in that region leads to radical Islam. Neither Carter, Bush II or Obama understood that reality and they have all paid for it, as has this country. Reagan, Clinton and Bush I only wanted cheap oil and friendly regimes. The cheap oil during their terms was not by accident. The question for Obama is whether he will reverse course.
Ironically, Iran just put down a similar revolt and Obama seemed less critical than he is of Mubarak. BTW, I think he will need to go but the question is whether the new government is going to use the methods used by Iran to put down their revolt.
Bingo. The nail has been hit.
Excellent summary, dan.
Thanks for this.
Thank you by the way you might want to read how the first dispute between Khomeni and Shah went: http://countrystudies.us/iran/18.htm
Great post, AlbuDan.
And all signs point in this direction, too. It appears that it will come down to whether a less autocratic dictator (i.e. “dictator lite”) will lead Egypt, or radical Islam.
Radical Islam will continue to expand until World War III begins. Winner take all.
Why does the US seek to influence? On one hand there is talk about bringing democracy to the middle east by invading Iraq. However, when there is a popular revolt against a US installed, supported dictator like Mubarak there is silence from the PTB. So one hand wants to jerk off while the other holds a religious book and recites verses of virtue. No nation has come equal to practicing this level of hypocrisy. What a laugh, and these people dream about leading the world. Forget about leading the world, it is going to be more like, unwelcome please go home.
If the Ottomans hadn’t been debt junkies, we wouldn’t be in this mess.
“it is going to be more like, unwelcome please go home.”
Nah. Better we should leave those turds where they are and prevent ‘em from coming back. We don’t want ‘em, either. You guys can take care of ‘em.
One thing other countries don’t seem to understand is the vast difference between the sentiments of the citizens and the opportunist gobmint partnered with the military multinational complex.
‘these people dream about leading the world’
On Friday I was stuck in a remote area driving, and could only pick up this Sean Hannity guy on the radio. He was talking out of both sides of his face trying to fit the Egypt riots into his political paradigm. What can we expect? The politicians in DC and the MSM feed us sound-bites on foreign policy, wrap everything in the flag or fear, and rarely do what they say. Look at the past presidential election; Obama is picked largely on the promise to end these wars, yet the course is unchanged.
“These people” have built a false two-party choice in the US that is no choice at all. Maybe your country is pure of heart; I hope so. But is notable that “they” never fail to find some one to tow their agenda, with bribes or what have you, in just about every corner of the world. We’ve got a big mess on our hands, no doubt about it.
“These people” have built a false two-party choice in the US that is no choice at all.
Bingo. “These people” may have built it, but it has been the mindless 95% of the population who are sheep that has perpetuated this Republicrat puppet show.
Yes, Obama voters, that means you. Yes, McCain voters, that means you.
It is unbelievable, how depraved the rich and powerful have become. Don’t they have any sense of decency? It bothers me, how does one get to a state when you just do not care about some one in a mad dash - always about money, money and money. Oh….the Barack IMHO is a big Zero. Not one of his promises have been kept, all he did was some dubious health care plan few care about, when the economy is burning, people opposed TARP 100:1 and all those alphabet soup SPV’s. He should have got out of Iraq, closed the hundreds of military bases, cancel CDS, send wall st fat cats to jail. But he spent all his capital on another way to raise money for the treasury, big pharma, healthcare industries through what is likely yet another ponzi. There are 1% of the patients who shall suck up 50-60% of the capital in this revenue raising disaster. Think about it, the people in the last stages of cancer, AIDS, liver diseases and what not will drain the system of 60% of its generated capital, how is the system going to balance when the rest of the pyramid ages? This model is unsustainable when people are living longer but earning lesser, this assumes unlimited exponential growth. Gawd…one day the shit that hits will be a blizzard. Forget about your kids, benefiting from that health care plan, they will not see a 5% return on their capital before the whole thing collapses.
You just about summed it all up, brahma: It won’t be sustained. None of it.
Ben,
Keep in mind Hannity ignorant nutjob of the most extreme variety.
Jeeziz you guys are long on ideological cocaine and short on US history. Mubarak is another neo-colonial thug no different than the scores of other dictators we’ve installed(funded). This has been going on for decades. The Egyptian people are doing the right thing.
History has plenty of precedent for oppressed people who are given no recourse for justice and dignity, rising up in rage and frustration. History provides very few examples of the best, most positive personalities and tendencies in society then seizing the moment and opening a better chapter. There are far more cases of shrewd opportunists and thugs hijacking legitimate aspirations and creating an even worse regime. The chaos and lawlessness sweeping across Cairo isn’t quite my idea of “the right thing” even if the original protesters had justified grievances.
Years pass, and the pigs learn to walk upright, carry whips, and wear clothes. The Seven Commandments are reduced to a single phrase: “All animals are equal, but some animals are more equal than others.” Napoleon holds a dinner party for the pigs and the humans of the area, who congratulate Napoleon on having the hardest-working animals in the country on the least feed. Napoleon announces an alliance with the humans, against the labouring classes of both “worlds”. He abolishes practices and traditions related to the Revolution, and reverts the name of the farm to “Manor Farm”.
The animals, overhearing the conversation, notice that the faces of the pigs have begun changing. During a poker match, an argument breaks out between Napoleon and Mr. Pilkington when they both play the Ace of Spades, and the animals realize that the faces of the pigs look like the faces of humans and no one can tell the difference between them
The Mullahs rulling Iran is a nice real world example.
Indeed.
I know it’s hard for America to realize it’s not about us. But, you know, it’s really not about us. This constant churning about how well/badly The Prez is reacting is incredibly self-centred.
The revolution in Cairo is the end result of our foreign policy.
No, its really not. If anything, its more influenced by British decisions at the end of WWII. Plus, Egypt is a very influential country in the area, and is quite capable of making its own policy
Look, I understand that its important for the US/The WH to have a coherent message. And yes, the US does have a role to play in the region.
But I honestly think that the Egyptians will be just fine without US help in choosing their own type of government - no matter how ‘good’ or ‘bad’ we might think it to be.
I just wish I could be spared ‘commentators’ wringing their hands and dissecting the WH’s response down to the atomic level.
As I said, its really not all about us this time. ElBaradhei has our number, he’ll call if he needs us.
And the “decisions” you speak of by the UK is no different than the US. It’s a distinction without a difference.
‘it will take time and repression to undo this’
Let’s just let that one hang out there.
It’s always interesting to me the ignorance of history we tolerate regarding international affairs. Here’s just one example:
‘Dr. Coleman relates that Carter appointed Trilateralist George Ball to head a commission on U.S. policy in the Persian Gulf. Ball’s recommendation was that the U.S. should withdraw its support for the Shah’s regime. Dr. Coleman quotes from the Shah’s own memoirs to confirm the American stance, the reality that is contrary to the mass-marketed Establishment line that the U.S. supported the Shah to the end,
“I did not know it then, perhaps I did not want to know - but it is clear to me now, the Americans wanted me out. What was I to make of the sudden appointment of Ball to the White House as an advisor to Iran? I knew that Ball was no friend of Iran. I understood that Ball was working on a special report on Iran. But no one ever informed me what areas the report was to cover, let alone its conclusions. I read them months later when I was in exile, and my worst fears were confirmed. Ball was among those Americans who wanted to abandon me, and ultimately my country.”
http://www.redmoonrising.com/Ikhwan/BritIslam.htm
This makes me wonder how many major shifts in the balance of power over the course of post-WWII history were at least partially precipitated by a decision at high levels of the American government to stop supporting a dictatorial regime somewhere in the Third World?
There are a LOT.
And history is pretty clear.
The Looking Glass War
Sept 17th, 2001 Berkeley CA
“Somehow it seems to fill my head with ideas—only I don’t exactly know what they are! However, somebody killed something: that’s clear at any rate–” exclaimed Alice after reading Jabberwocky in the Looking Glass world.
…
Faustian Bargain
At a certain level of analysis, the US is directly responsible for the power of Bin Laden and his followers. There is an unbroken causal chain that stretches from the US through the CIA to Pakistan to the Taliban to Bin Laden. The US armed the Mujahideen and now the other half of the unholy bargain is done with the destruction of the trade center towers and a token bombing of the Pentagon.
In his quest for magical power, Dr. Faustus makes a pact with the devil in which he barters away his soul. It is a powerful tale of the dangers of hubris that compels the powerful to seek even more power and are willing to make deals with devils. Dr. Faustus squanders away many opportunities where he could have redeemed himself but didn’t. It appears that the US is all set to make a larger faustian bargain with Pakistan. It is possible that the other half of the latest deal with the devil will be a nuclear bomb in the financial district of San Francisco a few years from now.
It was another doctor, a Dr. Frankenstein, that created a monster with his own hands. As it turned out, it was a fatal mistake that Frankenstein made because the monster that he created finally killed Frankenstein. The legend of Frankenstein’s monster is re-told with sickening regularity. In India the most famous retelling involves the assassination of Indira Gandhi by the followers of Bhindranwale whom she helped create. One wonders whether on a global scale, the Western powers have not been playing Dr. Frankenstein with Pakistan.
…
Or maybe Pakistan is just F***ed up and lunacy flourishes there regardless of what we do.
Personally I would “lock it”….
“mortgage rates up or down next week?”
It’s never been a better time to take on massive generational debt. Afterall, you’ve got to set an example for the little girl.
“All the money in the world is of no use to a man or his country if he spends it as fast as he makes it. All he has left are his bills and a reputation for being a fool.” ~Rudyard Kipling
I’ve been watching used house prices in the Williamsburg, VA area for about 5 years now. One I’ve had an eye on was on the market most of last year, didn’t sell and the price was eventually lowered to $255,000. Listing removed…. listed with new agent at: …. wait for it…. $275,000! Because that makes sense! Doesn’t sell for almost a year… so you RAISE THE PRICE.
They have to recover all their carrying costs for last year. They didnt buy the house to lose money.
Yep…. these fukkstick realtards are raising prices. Morons.
Yes, we’ve seen the same thing here in Southern California.
I don’t claim to be able to see in my crystal ball where San Diego neighborhood prices or home sales transactions volumes are headed, but I do have two comments to offer:
1) Local prices are in an ongoing state of dynamic tumult — as though the economic equivalent of a slow-motion earthquake had struck San Diego County’s real estate market and the shock waves continue to propagate.
2) The volume chart, shown in the dead tree edition of today’s San Diego Union-Tribune but possibly missing online, speaks volumes about the past decade’s San Diego real estate market experience. In short, home sales transactions volume was above 50K for each year from 2000 through 2005. During the bubble collapse year of 2006, volume dipped to just above 40K, then remained between 30K-40K for each year of the post-bubble collapse period.
3) Last year’s volume of 36,829 was fluffed by the $8K tax credit, followed by a California-specific tax credit signed into effect by the Gubinator. Without further as-yet unannounced demand stimulus measures kick in early in 2011 coupled with a miraculous labor market recovery, my guess is that San Diego County volume will bottom out this year, but not price.
Map: How San Diego housing fared in 2010
By Lily Leung, UNION-TRIBUNE
Roger Showley, UNION-TRIBUNE
Saturday, January 29, 2011 at 9:45 p.m.
The San Diego area is projected to have the 28th largest drop of the 384 markets surveyed.
San Diego County housing in 2010 paused on the way to recovery, as sales dipped and prices rose by almost exactly the same percentage for the second year in a row. The overall median for the year stood at $330,750, 6.7 percent higher than in 2009, as sales dropped by 6.3 percent to 36,829.
–Breaking down 2010 home prices, sales by geography
–Breaking down 2010 home prices, sales by key neighborhoods
——————————————————————————
Single-family resales, top and bottom 5 (based on % change)
Neighborhood ZIP code 2009 2010 Change
1. Rancho Santa Fe 92067 58 104 79.3%
2. Solana Beach 92075 136 205 50.7%
3. Coronado 92118 105 150 42.9%
4. Mission Beach/Pacific Beach 92109 138 174 26.1%
5. Ocean Beach 92107 116 139 19.8%
5. Escondido E 92027 710 529 –25.5%
4. Vista W 92083 358 257 –28.2%
3. Spring Valley 91977 714 510 –28.6%
2. Chula Vista S 91911 726 470 –35.3%
1. San Ysidro 92173 152 91 –40.1%
Single-family median price, top and bottom five (based on % change)
Neighborhood ZIP code 2009 2010 Change
1. Golden Hill 92102 $162,500 $200,000 23.1%
2. Logan Heights 92113 $135,000 $160,500 18.9%
3. City Heights 92105 $190,000 $223,000 17.4%
4. Spring Valley 91977 $230,000 $268,500 16.7%
5. National City 91950 $180,000 $210,000 16.7%
5. Mission Beach/P.B. 92109 $750,000 $725,000 –3.3%
4. La Jolla 92037 $1,415,000 $1,350,000 –4.6%
3. San Marcos S 92078 $495,000 $468,000 –5.5%
2. Cardiff 92007 $725,000 $650,000 –10.3%
1. Rancho Santa Fe 92067 $2,192,000 $1,950,000 –11.0%
“1. Rancho Santa Fe 92067 $2,192,000 $1,950,000 –11.0%”
I wonder how that statistic makes would-be sellers of homes in Rancho Bernardo at price points above $2m feel? And what about current owners in Rancho Santa Fe — are they upset their homes are selling for almost $250,000 less than they would have a year earlier, or are these folks so rich and leverage free that a drop of $250,000 in value has little effect on their overall wealth?
Here is what I mean about homes priced near or above $2m in our zip code. Good luck at selling these inland homes at such lofty price levels when single family homes in La Jolla have recently sold at a median price of $1,350,000.
ADDRESS CITY STATE ZIP LIST PRICE SQFT BEDS BATHS YEAR BUILT LAST SALE DATE LAST SALE PRICE
8103 Pale Moon Road 92127 $1,849,000 5900 5 5.5 12/22/2003 $1,525,000
7953 Kathryn Crosby Ct 92127 $1,850,000 5674 5 5.5 7/25/2006 $1,646,000
16514 Road To Morocco 92127 $2,075,000 4795 4 4.5 8134
Artesian Rd 92127 $3,150,000 5086 3 3.5 6/22/2001 $525,000
7652 TopOThe Morning Way 92127 $3,150,000 7405 6 6.5 7/25/2007 $3,300,000
8075 High Time Rdg CA 92127 $3,350,000 6362 4 4.5
The Economist writers have come up with a funny new political map of the United States of America, with the states renamed Washedup, Oregone, Califoreclosia, Nada, Aridzona, Utargghh, Doh!, Debt Mountana, Wymoaning, North Debtquota, South Debtquota, etc etc etc…
The state of the union
Jan 27th 2011 | from PRINT EDITION
IN A show of civility prompted by the dreadful shootings in Tucson, Republicans and Democrats sat side by side to hear Barack Obama’s state-of-the-union message. But that truce could not hide the fact that the two sides have starkly different analyses of what has gone wrong in America. And in so far as either side has solutions to offer (which is sadly not very far), these are starkly different, too. Everyone pretends to be in favour of bipartisan dialogue, but it is a dialogue of the deaf.
America faces two huge, linked problems. Its unemployment rate is running at 9.4%; once you add in those who want full-time work but can find only part-time jobs, it is almost twice that. Job creation is not even keeping pace with the rise in population. And the budget deficit is running at almost 10% of GDP; on that measure this year and the previous two will have been the three worst since the second world war.
…
“America faces two huge, linked problems.”
There you go. Now if we only had a clue what those two problems might be…..
“Its unemployment rate is running at 9.4%…And the budget deficit is running at almost 10% of GDP…”
What am I missing?
Maybe it is just me PB, but I’m thinking those are symptoms. I’m inclined to believe the problem beneath that is the unholy symbiosis between the monied interests and our legislators. As far as I can see, congress hasn’t done anything towards promoting jobs, only various forms of welfare, control and parasitism. So, they must not think people not working productively is a “problem”.
BINGO
“monied interests” = unions and banks?
What are you talking about? They’ve done plenty to promote jobs…. in other countries.
There’s a word for people who aid other nations at the expense of their own. It’s called… uh, it’s…. wait a minute, it will come to me…
monied interests = banks
Unions now account for a whopping 7% of private sector jobs. They have lost and the banks and ceo class have won. They no longer fight for raises or better job conditions but rather how fat the concesions are going to be to keep jobs in the US.
California has so far faced massive budget problems for all of the 21st century to date. What has changed to suddenly make the matter so urgent?
California Faces A Most Massive Budget Shortfall
by John Myers
Weekend Edition Sunday
January 30, 2011
Many states are facing budget shortfalls this year, but California is facing the largest one at more than $25 billion. From member station KQED, John Myers reports on the various proposed cuts, aimed at bridging the California budget gap.
…
Answer:
For the last two years - obama and the democrat controlled congress sent billions to California (and most other states) under various programs, stimulus, subsidies programs and out-right bailouts.
Most of that money went to public unions but that is a story for another day.
2011 - not so much money will be coming with a split in government. The cost of public unions has yet to be cut.
“… out-right bailouts.”
Unlike the TARP, these stealth state government bailouts were unannounced, or at least their status as bailouts was never mentioned.
Here’s a new job for the times. Anyone else see this in their neighborhood?
My wife and I live in a reasonably upscale central Texas neighborhood. Like all our neighbors, we put our garbage cans out to the street the night before pickup. I’ve discovered that I can put virtually any salvageable item out to the street the night before and it will get picked up before the garbage trucks even arrive.
I finally noticed what was happening. Around 5 a.m. a pickup truck came gliding by with a couple Hispanic kids riding in the back. Anywhere they came across even the slightest salvageable item they hopped out and tossed it in their truck and continued on. They picked up my old broke washing machine and lawn mower. They picked up the broken patio umbrellas that I laid out, and and old kids bike that was spent. Practically anything that doesn’t fit into the garbage can.
More power too them I say. They are busting their butts when a whole lot of other folk around here are just whining.
Jungian synchronicity, I was just thinking about this subject.
Been seeing less and less of this in the Midwest, the higher the gas price, the lower the number of trucks. The difference up here is, the skin color of the drivers and helpers include every shade, and I’ve only seen adults doing this, no children ever.
Seems like it’s the “new” paper route.
I was arguing with several people who would raise their hands, they seem to think an increase in exports will occur which will drive up profits and wages and improve things for the entire economy.
Isn’t that the same as saying we can grow our way out of this?
They also think The Fed has a way to unwind without unraveling.
oops, meant to post this lower down, under, “Geithner says worst of the US financial crisis behind us. Raise your hand if you believe him.” don’t know how this happened.
How long have you lived in Texas?
I’ve seen this for decades.
Ever worked the salvage business? It’s a very limited market. But I agree. More power to them.
Boehner says he cries because he cares so much
(AP) – 1 hour ago
WASHINGTON (AP) — Asking House Speaker John Boehner why he cries so much is one thing. If you want to turn his tears to mild annoyance, bring up his smoking.
Boehner tells “Fox News Sunday” that he wears his emotions on his sleeve and that’s why he tears up so easily. He also says he’s not going to apologize for getting emotional about things he believes are important.
Besides being quick to tear up, Boehner is also known around Washington as a heavy smoker. When asked why he doesn’t quit, the top House Republican responded sharply that, yes, it’s a bad habit, but that he chooses to smoke.
As far as being asked again and again about his smoking, Boehner says with a smile, “Leave me alone.”
“Boehner says he cries because he cares so much”
My money is on: “Mentally unstable, exacerbated by alcohol and prescription drug abuse.”
If I knew my hookerfests were about to be uncovered I’d be crying too.
Dear god. We’re doomed.
JANUARY 26, 2011.Why You Can’t Trust the Inflation Numbers
• First, the official inflation numbers should be taken with a fistful of salt.
Over the past 30 years, the federal government has made a lot of changes to the way it calculates inflation. It’s taken place under presidents of both parties. Each change in methodology has come with plausible-sounding justifications. But, as if by magic, each change has had the effect of flattering the numbers
• The second reason to treat the official inflation figures with some mistrust is that they look backward. They register what just happened, not what’s about to happen next.
OK, so the prices of many things haven’t risen. Yet. But if the laws of economics mean anything, they will have to. Why? Because costs are rising.
• The third reason to be mistrustful of the inflation picture? Simple. Economics.
We are flooding the world with extra dollars. The Fed simply invents as many as it likes. In the past couple of years, to try to keep the economy out of a tailspin, it has more than doubled the size of the so-called monetary base.
A dollar bill has no intrinsic value. Dollars are only “worth” something because you can exchange them for a haircut, or a pair of shoes, or a book from Amazon.com. So if you drastically increase the number of dollars without a commensurate increase in the number of goods and services, each dollar must, by definition, be worth less. That’s another way of describing inflation.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704013604576104351050317610.html - 186k -
I was with ‘em up to this point…
OK, so the prices of many things haven’t risen.
It must be nice in the ivory tower.
Go through foreclosure or walk away?
By Steve McLinden • Bankrate dot com
What is the difference between going through a foreclosure and simply walking away and mailing the keys to the bank?
– Charko
Dear Charko,
The lending industry has even coined a term for what you’re pondering instead of foreclosure. It’s called jingle mail, after those sets of keys that go jingling around in the incoming mail.
Realize that if you do this, your home will still face the foreclosure process. And as the lender’s foreclosure petition slowly works its way through the courts, an increasing number of delinquent payments will be layered onto your credit report because you are still technically the owner of the house, even if you mailed in the keys.
It is far better to ask the lenders if they will accept a short sale or to simply submit your house to the bank in a “deed in lieu of foreclosure” proceeding.
A short sale is less toxic to your credit rating than a standard foreclosure because it is listed as “settled debt” on credit reports. However, you must get the lender’s approval to sell the home for less (or “short”) of what you owe, and that approval won’t always be granted because the lender takes the loss for the balance owed in this scenario.
…
What is the difference between going through a foreclosure and simply walking away and mailing the keys to the bank?
Key differences:
Going through a foreclosure instead of just walking away:
1. You get to live rent free for 2-3 years.
2. You get paid by the bank to leave everything in decent condition to move out.
3. You get the chance of the bank not being able to produce a wet ink note and getting the house for free if a judge is in a good mood.
4. Some people have dragged out the foreclosure process for decades - you can too!
5. Every day you hold out is another day that a government program will be invented to shovel free money your way.
Yup — it sounds like living rent free until foreclosure is the way to go.
That was the point of that article I posted, wasn’t it? Or did I miss something?
“…getting the house for free if a judge is in a good mood.”
In an interview with the President of MERS, they broached this subject, and the President/Esq. of MERS said this was a pipe dream, you’re not getting a free home. Not one case so far has been fruitful.
What did you expect the president of MERS to say? He was talking to protect his book.
Feature | SATURDAY, JANUARY 29, 2011
Sunshine Dreams at Half the Price
By ROBERT PLUNKET | MORE ARTICLES BY AUTHOR
Florida is among the states most battered by the housing slump. For buyers with ready cash, there are luxury bargains galore. Want to be Tiger’s neighbor?
Who is Lis Pendens? And why is she involved in so many sales listings for homes and condos in Florida?
I asked myself those questions as I recently began a quest, at Barron’s behest, to find luxury-housing bargains in five cities in the Sunshine State: Sarasota, Orlando, Palm Beach, Naples and Miami.
Well, I soon learned, Lis Pendens has indeed become a huge player in Florida real estate, much bigger than, say, the “queen of mean,” Leona Helmsley, ever was in New York real estate. Lis is much meaner than Leona, but she isn’t a person. Instead, “lis pendens” is a dreaded legal term indicating that a lawsuit is pending on a property, which usually means it’s in foreclosure.
In Florida, which consistently has ranked among the five or six states with the most foreclosures since the housing bubble collapsed, Lis has created a chaotic pricing situation that’s hurt every sector of the market. If you’re hunting for a luxury property and have ready cash, you certainly can pick up a great buy.
…
Eleven years ago was January 2000, just before the tech stock bust.
But equity investors have nothing to fear, as this time is different.
UPDATE 1-New muni sales sink to 11-year low in January
Fri Jan 28, 2011 5:33pm EST
By Michael Connor
MIAMI Jan 28 (Reuters) - January was the slowest month for new U.S. municipal bond sales in 11 years as the market recovered from its worst selloff since the 2008 financial crisis.
Sales of new debt from U.S. cities, states and other issuers tentatively totaled just $10.96 billion this month, according to Thomson Reuters data.
January’s pace was roughly a quarter of the monthly average of October, November and December, and may presage a slowdown in the months to come as the market stabilizes following a flood of year-end deals that helped drive borrowing costs sharply higher.
Issuers had rushed to America’s $2.8 trillion muni market to sell federally subsidized Build America Bonds before a federal subsidy supporting those deals expired.
“A lot of this year’s deals were pulled forward,” said Bob Millikan, executive director at Sterling Capital Management in Raleigh. “No one’s having trouble coming to market if they want to sell bonds.”
…
Don’t know if Spain is more honest in reporting unemployment than we are…
———————————
Spain’s jobless rate surges to 20.33%
yahoo - 1/30/11
MADRID (AFP) – Spain announced Friday its jobless rate surged to a 13-year record above 20 percent at the end of 2010, the highest level in the industrialized world, as the economy struggled for air.
It was more bad news for an economy fighting to regain the trust of financial markets and avoid being trapped in a debt quagmire that has engulfed Greece and Ireland and now menaces Portugal.
Another 121,900 people joined Spain’s unemployment queues in the final quarter of the year, pushing the total to 4.697 million people, said the national statistics institute INE.
The resulting unemployment rate was 20.33 percent for the end of the year — easily exceeding Prime Minister Jose Luis Rodriguez Zapatero’s target of 19.4 percent.
Spain appears to be stuck in a rut of staggeringly high levels of unemployment.
U3 is often what is reported in MSM, but U6 is closer to reality.
U6 is currently +/-17%.
That’s bad. In fact, it’s the worst I’ve ever seen in my life.
Don’t really know either, but U6 is currently ~17% and is defined as:
The U6 unemployment rate counts not only people without work seeking full-time employment (the more familiar U-3 rate), but also counts “marginally attached workers and those working part-time for economic reasons.” Note that some of these part-time workers counted as employed by U-3 could be working as little as an hour a week. And the “marginally attached workers” include those who have gotten discouraged and stopped looking, but still want to work. The age considered for this calculation is 16 years and over
Also, the US doesn’t count its prison population, but of the OECD countries the US has by far the highest at 2% of the population and they are statistically very poor. Perhaps the US unemployment rate is closer to 20% with all factors considered.
http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/finance/2011/0129/1224288526843.html
Geithner says worst of the US financial crisis behind us. Raise your hand if you believe him.
I don’t trust anything coming out of the mouths of top Fed insiders these days. Their recent ‘track record’ of prediction is dismal.
Further, I doubt they or anyone else can actually figure out where we are in the progress through the crisis, aside from the fact that it is not over yet.
If you’re a 1 percenter, then yes, it does indeed look like the worst is behind us.
But as for the rest of us?
Embrace your serfdom, Ecofeco. True happiness is in selfless service to others.
They call me… Oliver Twist.
“Please sir, I want some more.”
“Foreclosures spread through pricey S.F. areas”
- front page of today’s San Francisco Chronicle
Chronicle continues to trot out the SF market is “different” mythology and then pulls-punches in the article such as, “there were some risky mortgage funding in San Francisco that may have gotten people in trouble, but … exotic loans were more on the other side of the bay (i.e poorer areas).”
Truth is that SF had the highest ratio of ARMS to conventional mortgages of any city in the country (started plotted this data back in 2004) However, this is a rare article that even begins to tell the story of the true state of the SF real estate market.
SF had more than its share of Alt-A mortgages, aka “liar loans,” and in general the only reason to lie in order to qualify for a mortgage is because you can’t actually afford it long-term and were hoping to flip the property before you ran out of cash. Of course, flipping only works in a rapidly rising market. Even a flat market is no good, because of the high transaction costs on both the buying and selling sides of the holding period.
Is this Zimbabwe Ben’s playbook?
“Lenin is said to have declared that the best way to destroy the capitalist system was to debauch the currency. By a continuing process of inflation, governments can confiscate, secretly and unobserved, an important part of the wealth of their citizens. By this method they not only confiscate, but they confiscate arbitrarily; and, while the process impoverishes many, it actually enriches some. The sight of this arbitrary rearrangement of riches strikes not only at security, but at confidence in the equity of the existing distribution of wealth. Those to whom the system brings windfalls, beyond their deserts and even beyond their expectations or desires, become ‘profiteers,’ who are the object of the hatred of the bourgeoisie, whom the inflationism has impoverished, not less than of the proletariat. As the inflation proceeds and the real value of the currency fluctuates wildly from month to month, all permanent relations between debtors and creditors, which form the ultimate foundation of capitalism, become so utterly disordered as to be almost meaningless; and the process of wealth-getting degenerates into a gamble and a lottery.
Lenin was certainly right. There is no subtler, no surer means of overturning the existing basis of society than to debauch the currency. The process engages all the hidden forces of economic law on the side of destruction, and does it in a manner which not one man in a million is able to diagnose.”
~ John Maynard Keynes
So who then would Keynes/Lenin say destroyed US capitalism? Greenspan, Bush, Bernanke, Obama? Or are they all just covering for the fact that US capitalism has already been destroyed?
I would have to point directly to the Business Roundtable, formed in 1972.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GJ4X_aHANLs
Wow. More truth in this six-minute Gerald Celente interview on RT than I’ll get in a year’s worth of MSM programming, especially on how Wall Street now runs our political process through their Republicrat hirelings.
Good stuff, Sammy. Thanks.
Breaking news: President Mubarak supports an “orderly transition” in the US from a Wall Street-owned kleptocracy to a Constitutional Republican democracy.
OK, I made that up, but wouldn’t it be cool?
WSJ: “Home Prices Sink Further”
Home values are falling at an accelerating rate in many cities across the U.S.
The Wall Street Journal’s latest quarterly survey of housing-market conditions found that prices declined in all of the 28 major metropolitan areas tracked during the fourth quarter when compared to a year earlier.
So the braindead NAR disciples raise prices….. yep makes all the sense in the world.
Here’s the URL:
http://tinyurl.com/5ulx3un
It definitely appears the U.S. housing market is running short on buyers with buckets of money and boxes of stupid these days.
* NY REAL ESTATE COMMERCIAL
* JANUARY 31, 2011
Home Prices Sink Further
Declines Reported in All 28 Major Metropolitan Areas; Unsold Inventory Piles Up
By NICK TIMIRAOS
Weak demand and tight credit are contributing to the fall in home prices. Above, trying to sell in Atlanta.
Home values are falling at an accelerating rate in many cities across the U.S.
The Wall Street Journal’s latest quarterly survey of housing-market conditions found that prices declined in all of the 28 major metropolitan areas tracked during the fourth quarter when compared to a year earlier.
The size of the year-to-year price declines was greater than the previous quarter’s in all but three of the markets, the latest indication that the housing market faces considerable challenges.
Inventory levels, meanwhile, are rising in many markets as the number of unsold homes piles up.
Home values dropped the most in cities that have already been hard-hit by the housing bust, including Miami, Orlando, Atlanta, and Chicago, according to data from real-estate website Zillow.com. But price declines also intensified in several markets that so far have escaped the brunt of the downturn, including Seattle and Portland, Ore.
Falling prices are a reflection of weak demand and tight credit conditions that reduce the number of potential buyers.
“There are just not a lot of renters with confidence, with a down payment, with good credit, and without a lot of additional debt,” said John Burns, a homebuilder consultant in Irvine, Calif.
…
“There are just not a lot of renters with confidence, with a down payment, with good credit, and without a lot of additional debt,” said John Burns, a homebuilder consultant in Irvine, Calif.
How are renters saving money when rents are still artificially high due to the amount of housing being kept off the market and wages are falling for many and a lot more for the unemployed?
The top two percenters only need so many houses. Eventually you’re going to have to put more money in the hands of the serfs if you want more housing sales.
I suppose if one narrows down the pool of renters needed by Mr Burns, you’d have a different group of two percenters.
Well said, SDGreg.