Bits Bucket for February 15, 2011
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The Housing Bubble
Examining the home price boom and its effect on owners, lenders, regulators, realtors and the economy as a whole.
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Name:Ben Jones
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The LA Time’s Michael Kinsley has an op-ed up today, questioning the very concept of it being good for people when housing prices rise.
The assumption is that ever-rising house prices are good, and that a decline in house prices is bad. Ordinarily we cheer when the price of an essential (product goes down, and complain when it goes up. Take oil, for example. We like it when the price of gasoline goes down and are unhappy when it goes up. But with homeownership, it’s the other way around….
But before we start dreaming of a return to the days when ever-rising real estate prices were considered a constitutional right, let’s think this through a bit. Why do we want home prices to go up?
http://www.latimes.com/news/opinion/commentary/la-oe-kinsley-home-prices-20110215,0,5042856.story
Yup, the LA Times is on the cutting edge yet again…
‘The LA Times. “Nestled on the western shore of the Salton Sea, the town doesn’t have a supermarket or movie theater or drugstore. But it has as many as 250 homes for sale, most of them newly built, a huge supply for a place with just 1,440 people.”
‘Deals are getting done. Credit the rock-bottom prices. Some brand-new homes sell for less than $200,000 and, thanks to the oversupply, are getting even cheaper. ERA Investment Group, the biggest Salton City developer, touts the community as both ‘California’s last frontier’ and ‘the next hot market.’ ERA’s sales brochure…touts ‘breath-taking views’ and claims the sea ‘teems with fish.’”
“Carol Hines, an office temp worker in Brawley, remembers camping on the shores of the sea about 15 years ago. ‘This developer came bounding up and said, ‘Are you interested in buying some land?’ Hines said. ‘I looked around at the dead birds and the dead fish and said, ‘I’m kind of sorry I’m even visiting.’”
http://thehousingbubbleblog.com/?p=3038
A thousand words …
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Salton_Sea_homes.JPG
Geez, can’t even get ‘yer helmet shined in that dump.
Too funny!
“dead birds and the dead fish”
I thought they were supposed to offer fresh-baked cookies?
Hey just six months ago the LA Times ran this historical article about California City in the Mojave desert. You think Salton City is a disaster?
http://articles.latimes.com/2010/aug/14/local/la-me-cal-city-20100814
In 1958, Nathan Mendelsohn, a Columbia University sociology instructor turned developer, acquired 82,000 acres of desert in eastern Kern County, 100 miles from Los Angeles.
Mendelsohn called his vision California City and, despite the fact it was 10 miles from any highway, he believed it would become the state’s next metropolis. The next San Fernando Valley.
Today a mere 14,000 souls call California City home. Most are clustered at one end of the massive tract. It’s a sleepy outpost with its own school district and public bus service but no hotel or chain grocery. The police chief is also the director of parks and recreation, and the Rite Aid is the busiest place in town.
The rest of Mendelsohn’s eccentric dream unfurls to the east, some 185 square miles of mostly unpaved streets — a ghostly monument to overreach that, from above, looks like a geoglyph left by space aliens. Only Los Angeles and San Diego leave a bigger footprint in the state.
I posted the lead article because it appealed to my sense of humor - that an MSM paper like the LA Times may finally be “getting it”.
Thanks again Ben for posting some of these old threads…From the link;
Comment by lineup32
2007-07-01 18:31:50
the Salton Sea is an arm pit but cheap land is what the HB loves and has driven the conversion of ag land into shitboxes for the last 40 years
They’ve been trying to sell people on the Salton Sea (a fake lake created by a irrigation channel flood about 100 years ago) for the past 50 years. good luck.
Add to that, Property Taxes stablize and are still affordable (within budget) as us Baby Boomers age in place, if housing prices don’t jump. I appreciated that post Dennis. I like to read what the sheeple read.
Property taxes do not have to stay the same just because property values are stable or falling. A few states have laws that require the increases be limited (CA and MA, not sure about others). To imagine that property tax rates will never increase enough to increase the overall bill with a stable or falling value is naive in the extreme.
polly,
I understand your point, but the extreme in this bubble, and before Prop 13 in Ca., caused older folks (many with paid off homes) to lose their homes to property taxes. I saw it.
The compounding effects of even 2% limits, could be hard on some cash flow situations. Pumping housing prices up isn’t good for the common good, in general.
Kinda funny how losing tons of money to inhertitance taxes is a good thing, but losing a house due to property tax is a bad thing.
Aren’t we trying to prevent a landed gentry in the US?
Awaiting,
Sorry. I don’t buy your argument at all. Is it easier for local politicians to just spend as much money as comes in when property values rise? Yes. Is it inevitable? No. Not a chance. If you don’t like the way your local politicians run the finances of your area, vote them out.
I hear a lot of retired folks whining about increasing property taxes and that they might be forced to move. Well, that is what happens when you don’t plan your retirement finances with enough wiggle room. There is no guarantee when you buy a house that you will be able to afford to live in it forever. Not the way our society works.
There is no guarantee when you buy a house that you will be able to afford to live in it forever. Not the way our society works.
One could argue that there shouldn’t be property taxes for just this reason. Sure, there are the operational costs (insurance, heat, electricity, etc), but one really shouldn’t be forced to sell their home because other houses around you sell for lots of money.
So you are advocating for local governments to all switch to an income tax? Well, it is a heck of a lot more expensive to run well than a property tax, and property taxes are kind of traditional, but OK. Or maybe only a sales tax? If that is your prefererence. I seem to recall that there is (was?) a whole movement based in the idea that property taxes were the only valid form of taxes because land is the only thing that can produce value, but that was from a Smithsonian article from a decade or more ago, so I can’t dredge up the reasoning behind it
@Polly - Honestly, I’d argue for a sales tax vs property taxes. With a county/city/state property tax, I’d argue you don’t truly “own” the property, as the state makes you pay them to possess it.
I’ve never worked the numbers to figure out what a sales tax % might actually need to be, but I’d certainly prefer paying a higher % of a consumption tax to have to pay less rent to the government to “own” my property.
I of course could always choose to consume less as my income dwindles, whereas I can’t control what property values around me do.
The problem for a sales tax for a local community is that it is easy for consumers to just do all or most of their buying in the next community over. Even states have that issue, though with gas more expensive, I suppose not many people live close enough to a boarder to drive to a state with a lower sales tax rate for small items. Sales taxes are also hugely complicated to administer (most exclude groceries but not “prepared” food and defining the difference is hard). Sales taxes also put a large burden on businesses that have a lot of transactions.
I guess what I am basically saying is that an individual community can’t decide to that on its own or it will have no tax revenue as all the retail businesses move to the next town over. You have to have a large area do it all at once and expect a huge amount of cheating in a black market (property taxes are easy to enforce in most economic environments) and spend way more to administer. Hire a lot more government employees too.
Seems like a lot of hassel just to make sure that people who want to live in a community they can no longer afford get to stay put.
Seems like a lot of hassel just to make sure that people who want to live in a community they can no longer afford get to stay put.
I agree with your points regarding administration costs and enforcement. I think it would have to be a state-wide decision, just as income taxes are (though I realize some cities like NYC have an income tax - right?). A state that chooses to have a higher sales tax rather than income tax could just as easily choose to have a higher sales tax and no property tax as well. Unfortunately prop taxes are levied at the County level in most cases.
However, regarding compliance, most states already have a sales tax, so there’s no extra overhead for merchants. They already have the systems in place - the # would just be higher (I do agree with the issues with “exempt” items. I’m not a fan of that, especially given that a salad I build myself at Whole Foods is subject to tax).
Regarding your comment I quoted above, for me it’s not just about the inconvenience of moving. It’s about the fundamental right to own property. IMO, if the state is charging you a fee to keep the property, you don’t truly own it. Framing the discussion around the “hassle” of moving trivializes the underlying question of what is true property ownership.
I’ve seen what I consider reputible resources putting ’sales tax’ only taxes at around 40%-50% of every transaction. I’d rather have high property taxes, as they more closely track to wealth and are decidedly more progressive.
And if you don’t like your high property taxes, then you can always book the huge gain and move elsewhere.
In order to lessen the administrative burden on merchants, everything is taxed in Idaho, including food. But you get a “food tax credit” on your state income tax based upon family size. This food tax credit is intended to be an approximate refund of sales tax on things normally not taxed such as food.
“you get a “food tax credit” on your state income tax based upon family size”
Interesting. So visitors to Idaho pay the tax and don’t get a refund.
Happy,
You figured it out!
Property Taxes
Just heard in my little corner of the world (western CT) that banks have stopped paying property taxes on the homes they are foreclosing on.
Around here, if the town’s budget is X. Then every homeowner pays the percentage, based on the home’s assessment,
to get to X. If home prices get cut in half the multiplier (mill rate) is simply doubled so that the town gets to X.
Of course everyone wants lower taxes, but I don’t understand how the local government can continue to operate if their funding gets slashed everytime RE values dip or tank like I see in Florida or other places.
The answer is that a town should be able to budget just like every individual with a variable salary: expect dips and don’t expect your ‘best month’ to be your ‘average month’.
The second answer is that just because a bank owns a home shouldn’t exempt them from paying property taxes - it’s just that city is taking the easy way out by screwing the average citizen rather than the harder way of forcing payment. No wonder so many citizens don’t have a lot of use for their government.
The 3rd answer is that property taxes aren’t special in this regard. Every income percentage based tax will ebb and flow with the economy. Haven’t you heard that if CA (an an example -plenty of other states are in the same situation) could increase their GDP by 1% (either through growth or taxation) their debt would disappear? Well good luck moving that growth arrow in a down economy.
The answer is that a town should be able to budget just like every individual with a variable salary: expect dips and don’t expect your ‘best month’ to be your ‘average month’.
Have you seen the attitudes of public employees? They believe they are immune to economic fluctuations. They bought off politicians fair and square. Good luck with varying local budgets as long as those contracts with public workers are in place.
“Just heard in my little corner of the world (western CT) that banks have stopped paying property taxes on the homes they are foreclosing on.”
I believe it, but I don’t see how this helps the banks. In IL after a certain amount of time of non-payment, the state will sell the right to collect those property taxes. At some point the bank must pay up to the purchaser of those rights, or said purchaser can take the property, leaving the primary leinholder with nothing.
If the bank hopes to sell the property before the state auctions it, the title company will insist they make whole with the state at or by closing.
Any delays will rack up punitively high penalties and interest charges. I’d bet the FDIC would seriously frown on this practice. Eventually Sheila will throw ‘em a pizza party farewell.
If the bank does its accounting by the accrual method (and any moderately sized business does its accounting that way) it has to take the hit to its income (for tax and reserve purposes) when the obligation is incurred. Whether you pay it or not is irrelevant.
I think something else is going on. If they have come to believe that because of MERs or whatever, they don’t really own the properties they have foreclosed on, then they don’t have to accrue or pay the property taxes - if someone else owns the house then someone else is responsible for the taxes.
“I think something else is going on. If they have come to believe that because of MERs or whatever, they don’t really own the properties they have foreclosed on, then they don’t have to accrue or pay the property taxes - if someone else owns the house then someone else is responsible for the taxes.”
Ahhh…excellent point, Polly!
Wow! Will states and municipalities become unintentional property owners if ownership cannot be determined?
Of course he’s missing the 4th group who cares, those who LENT the money for the house purchases. Because it’s harder for them to get their money back if the house is worth less than the FB owes. And those Wall Street Wheeler dealers are the kind of people who “matter” to Turbo Tax Timmy, and the people who own the mass media in this country.
Why do we want home prices to go up?
Because the average person is only getting 3% from their savings account. About the same as their raise, if they even get one. (yes, that is slightly exaggerated, but you get the idea. the avg person’s money is not keeping up with the cost of living)
Why do we want home prices to go up?
Because the average person is only getting 3% from their savings account. About the same as their raise, if they even get one. (yes, that is slightly exaggerated, but you get the idea. the avg person’s money is not keeping up with the cost of living)
Yes, but you only stand to benefit from such increases when you sell. And, right now, selling is not easy.
Day to day, the price of my house doesn’t matter. It’s not as if the house gives me a twenty to spend whenever I head out the door.
There are many things wrong with my scenario. Like, why aren’t there decent paying jobs? Why are banks getting away with borrowing for nothing, lending dearly, yet not passing this on to their customers?
In other words, why does the avg person HAVE to rely on shaky investments just keep up with the cost of living? Especially when the Fortune 500 are making records profits?
My guess would be that the rich are sucking the “avg person” dry.
“Day to day, the price of my house doesn’t matter. It’s not as if the house gives me a twenty to spend whenever I head out the door.”
It’s clear that you don’t live next door to Stanley Johnson.
Housing Market Looks Sickest in Cities That Once Seemed Immune
By DAVID STREITFELD
Published: February 13, 2011
In the last year, home prices in Seattle had a bigger decline than in Las Vegas. Minneapolis dropped more than Miami, and Atlanta fared worse than Phoenix.
“When I go out and talk to people around town, they say, ‘Wow, I thought we were going to have a 12 percent correction and call it a day,’ ” said Stan Humphries, chief economist for the housing site Zillow, which is based in Seattle. “But this thing just keeps on going.”
http://www.nytimes.com/2011/02/14/business/economy/14dip.html - -
Funny how those price to income ratios matter even in places like Seattle.
Eventually, it should matter even in places like Seattle.
We’re still way overpriced here, so I’m hoping that it matters even more soon.
The raw data was all in that PMI Insurance table posted yesterday.
My nephew paid $380K for a 730 square foot high-rise condo in downtown Seattle in 2008. He and his mom both told me that “prices are much more stable in downtown urban areas”.
Zillow now says it’s worth $225K. Anyone from Seattle care to comment on the accuracy of Zillow vis-a-vis downtown Seattle condos?
Does it have recent sales in the building listed? Condoze are usually pretty homogeneous, making them easier for even dumb calculators like Zillow to get a recent estimate.
I’m not sure it’s accurate per se, but it is very representative. My old roommate bought a condo in seattle (you can see the space needle out his window -it’s a half mile or so away) in around the same timeperiod, and now the building is 50% full and his unit is unsellable.
My old roommate bought a condo in seattle (you can see the space needle out his window -it’s a half mile or so away) in around the same timeperiod, and now the building is 50% full and his unit is unsellable.
ISTR that the 1970s condo craze came to a similar bad end.
It did.
I have never understood the attraction of condos. I did know of a friend of a friend who bought one, probably at the peak. She wanted to stabilize her monthly housing payment and I guess apartment rental rates had been climbing pretty steeply.
The most desirable properties when there is an oversupply driving prices down. Downtown is usually good from a desiribility standpoint. Condo however are usually not as desirable as SFHs.
There are 2 buildings with units going to auction. Prices downtown have dropped … but have not freefallen (yet??). They are probably 25-30% off the peak in 2008/7.
I think there was a new high rise condo building in Seattle that has to be torn down because of leaks
Actually, the faulty building in question failed because the post tension slab deck supporting it failed. It seems the post tension cables which are required to be sealed from the elements , at the termination points were never properly sealed and so they corroded compromising the structural integrity of the gravitational loading of the building on the slab. A leak you can fix, there is no way to fix this mess.
It’s the McGuire apartments building on 2nd Ave. and Wall Street.
http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/localnews/2011585964_apartments12m.html
And it’s owned by - wait for it - the carpenter’s union and a few pension funds.
The proposed budget tax cuts are making the rounds and the local rag’s comment section is blazing with the usual finger pointing. No one mentions TARP, ZIRP, QE1, QE2, the coming QE3, record profits in the usual sectors despite low trading volume, or the fact that taxpayer dollars funded a lot of new home and auto purchases last year.
I almost can’t look anymore. The local media has been very active in deny, deny, deny but really what bums me out is people that don’t watch the news or care to know what’s going on around them. I never thought of myself as a strong individual before but when I see how hard some cling to their little comfort cocoon it shocks and depresses me. How have we Americans (financial/hbb bloggers excluded of course) come to be so darn weak? Don’t they want to make the right choices for their children? Or are they just admitting how helpless we all really are in this and enjoying the last days of Rome’s glory?
“but when I see how hard some cling to their little comfort cocoon it shocks and depresses me.”
BINGO and Welcome to post-industrial upstate NY, VT and NH!!!!!!!! It’s much much easier to let the Housing Crime Syndicate, MSM, local business “leaders” do your thinking for you!!! I’ve heard it all from Cocoon KlingOns in upstate and VT.
Instead of yammering on how _____(insert name of local business “leader” or realtard) is a “nice guy” or better yet, “_____ does wonderful work”, ask yourself……. Am I getting RIPPED off by this person? I’m not sure how post-industrial economic decline makes people so spinelessly clueless but it does.
We could discuss for months the blatantly obvious weakened mental state of the populace. The liars, contractors, realtards are having a field day with these dummies.
…… but he’s a nice guy!!!!!!!
Instead of yammering on how _____(insert name of local business “leader” or realtard) is a “nice guy” or better yet, “_____ does wonderful work”, ask yourself……. Am I getting RIPPED off by this person? I’m not sure how post-industrial economic decline makes people so spinelessly clueless but it does.
We have the same sort of people here in Tucson. And there are entire websites devoted to exposing them for what they really are.
Take, for example, this one. If you have an hour or two, read this guy’s “Something Else” book. The book is linked from the left column, and yes, it rants and raves and rambles. But it also makes some very good points about our local PTB clique, which the author calls “The Cloth.”
“…blatantly obvious weakened mental state of the populace.”
Your education tax dollars at work.
I don’t think it is always about low education. My comment is they are expending a lot of energy to “not know” what’s going on.
I think when all becomes obvious great groups of these people will realize they’ve always known just never completed connecting the dots…because they just couldn’t bear to look.
@exeter: Yeah I’ve long been disgusted w/the “but he’s a nice guy response” ever since that Provincetown (area?) priest admitted to fondling kids and left before the parish found out, but the parish argued to get him back because he was “so nice”. I was sick to my stomach the whole week after that story broke. People can’t admit to themselves they brush elbows with social monsters on a regular basis and will go to great lengths to protect their belief system from reality.
That’s EXACTLY what I’m talking about.
@exeter: Yeah I’ve long been disgusted w/the “but he’s a nice guy response” ever since that Provincetown (area?) priest admitted to fondling kids and left before the parish found out, but the parish argued to get him back because he was “so nice”. I was sick to my stomach the whole week after that story broke. People can’t admit to themselves they brush elbows with social monsters on a regular basis and will go to great lengths to protect their belief system from reality.
Tell me about it.
A few years ago, I was a volunteer photographer for a local non-profit organization. On more than one occasion, one of the staff was also shooting the same events that I was.
Okay. Fair enough. Very seldom do I shoot anything where I’m the sole photographer. So, I stay out of the other people’s way. Makes for good professional courtesy that way.
But this staff guy kept giving me dirty looks, and I couldn’t understand why. I mean, I had the blessing of both the assistant director of development (aka the fundraisers) and the volunteer coordinator to be at these event with a camera. I couldn’t figure out what I was doing to raise this guy’s ire.
Well, that was then, this is now.
I’ve since learned that this guy had come to Tucson from the Midwest, where he had been in the Catholic clergy. There were some, ahem, photos on the parish office computer that had been of a personal nature. And they involved children. This guy was the one who put those photos on that computer.
Well, when that story hit the local media, one of the two staff people mentioned above called this org’s national whistleblower hotline. For that, she was written up by one of the bosses of the local group. She quit a few days later.
The guy who was giving me the stinkeye was probably annoyed because I could have been a potential witness to what he was planning to do with the kids who attended the events that we both were photographing. He no longer works for the organization, having died a few months after the story about his past was reported here.
As for me, I no longer shoot events for this organization.
A few years after I first came here, I made the mistake of informing the local principal that their computer guy (this was back when Al Gore was taking the initiative to bring the “information super highway” into American schools,) was on Megan’s List– California’s searchable data base of local registered sex offenders.
I went down to the sheriff’s station database, filled out the appropriate paperwork and sure enough, there was his ugly smacker right dab in the middle of the screen — convicted of having had “inappropriate lewd contact” with a minor under the age of 12.” I was horrified, for my child was a student at this little local school at the time, and I had been totally creeped out by the guy’s inappropriate conversation when he came to my home to set up my first internet connection.
The board’s first reaction when I told them that their employee was a perv was “That’s not him. Why are you making these spurious accusations about this fine man?” (Who is charging us an arm and a leg to plug in some monitors and run the initial setup?…)
Second reaction when I came back and showed them a hard copy of the Sheriff’s file was,
Well. “He’s a good guy. He’s a member of the church and his wife is a part time teacher.” (This from the local sheriff–also a member of the church and the school board.)
“But he’s a registered sex offender,” I protested, ” and I don’t want him alone here on the weekends or after school when there are kids here at soccer practice.”
“Forget you saw that…. We’ll make sure everything is fine.”
It was made very clear to me that things would get dicey for me and my animal stock if I continued this line of protest; and five years later he was still there puttering around the little girls bathrooms and getting the board “deals” on computer components to install.
So no. I tend to get livid over the “he’s a nice guy” dismissals of crony skanks, too.
Fortunately they were foreclosed upon a couple of years ago, but I sure kept my kid and his friends as far away from that side of the canyon as possible.
I never worked with monsters like that, but I did have the misfortune of watching people turn a blind eye to things like managers who physically attack employees, clowns who never show up to work, people who steal from everyone around them, and so on… it blew my mind how people would come up with excuses to justify their behavior! The only “crime” these days is to not “go with the flow” with the rest of the sewer of society.
“Or are they just admitting how helpless we all really are in this and enjoying the last days of Rome’s glory?”
I think there’s a lot of that going around, especially the helpless part.
should say proposed budget cuts….sheesh
Yes, going on at federal, state & local level, no one wants to get cut, call your legislator, send emails blah blah.
I probably repeat myself, but the state GOP legislators tried to cut $1.3 mil from education, then found out they would lose $30 mil federal “matching” funds. Same thing at the city, losing state funding for this and that which has long figured in the budget. City takes in about $40 mil in taxes but spends $150 mil due to state and federal CDBG money. The bureaucrats laugh at the stoopid lawmakers for not knowing all this going in.
the state GOP legislators tried to cut $1.3 mil from education, then found out they would lose $30 mil federal “matching” funds. Same thing at the city, losing state funding for this and that which has long figured in the budget. City takes in about $40 mil in taxes but spends $150 mil due to state and federal CDBG money.
And of course the issue here is the taxes being collected at a higher level (fed, state) and re-distributed. This shouldn’t be happening. The feds shouldn’t be collecting taxes that are used to fund things such as roads and schools for local municipalities.
Yup, it shouldn’t be happening. But it has been going on for sooo long nobody in govt knows how to cope without it.
Gahhh…
Yesterday someone commented: “Every nation in the world has a tougher immigration policy than ours.”
That is not so. Argentina comes to mind.
“if everyone jumped off of cliff…would you follow thim?” - mom
Give us your poor, your tired, your lazy, your scam-artists, your ponzi-men, your freeloaders…
It’s heartbreaking to see what unfettered illegal immigration has done to a formerly pleasant area here in southeastern Hillsborough County, Florida. Some of the older, but nice little neighborhoods in Ruskin have been turned into reeking slums. A piece of the main drag is fronted by duplexes with driveways filled with trash and broken down cars, while the tenants sit placidly on the porches.
…and your drug dealing narco-gangstas.
Speaking about
“Give us your poor, your tired…”, I’ve alway thought it was ironic that a poem (French Poet) found on the base of the Statue Of Liberty ,is thought to be part of our real history.
Amazing the mis-information found on this blog!
“Every nation in the world has a tougher immigration policy than ours.”- WRONG.
“(French Poet)”- WRONG.
I know the posters of mis-information wouldn’t stoop to lies, so I have to reluctantly conclude they are too slothful to do a little fact checking.
I don’t care who wrote it, a poem is not an immigration policy.
But FYI, it was Emma Lazarus.
I stand corrected. I read mis-information or remembered wrong. Sorry.
krazy bill,
You’re an angry man. You should always count to 10 before dealing with a disagreement, I’ve learned. Wisdom!
But nevertheless, people take that poem as national policy, was really my point.
About the Author
Emma Lazarus
Emma Lazarus, the poetess, is probably best known for her poem associated with the Statue of Liberty. Her poem has become one of the quintessential statements of a U.S. ideal of open immigration. Her poem “The New Colossus” stands as a stirring statement of the American ethos.
Emma Lazarus was born to Moses and Esther Nathan Lazarus in New York City on July 22, 1849. Emma grew up in a prominent fourth generation Jewish family, one of the oldest in New York City. She was well educated and by age 25 was a published poet and author.
She wrote “The New Colossus” in 1883 for an art auction “in Aid of the Bartholdi Pedestal Fund.” While France had provided the statue itself, American fundraising efforts like these paid for the Statue of Liberty’s pedestal. In 1903, sixteen years after her death, Lazarus’ sonnet was engraved on a plaque and placed in the pedestal as a memorial.
Awaiting: Yes; and folks take the Declaration of Independence as national policy, too. However, at the time the poem was written America had unrestricted immigration except for Chinese. My parents came here in 1913 when the only qualifications were you not have a social disease or TB, and were not Chinese.
Angry? I have never told anyone to piss-off, nor wished a door with spikes to hit anyone’s nether end. I have never called a fellow human a maggot or cockroach.
Further, I didn’t name the poster of the un-factual statement “Every nation in the world has a tougher immigration policy than ours.” because I didn’t want it to seem to be a direct attack.
Angry? I have never told anyone to piss-off, nor wished a door with spikes to hit anyone’s nether end. I have never called a fellow human a maggot or cockroach.
It’s sad that the bar has been set so low on this blog that one would have to point out that they haven’t done such things (yet others who post here have).
I personally appreciate your viewpoint, bill, and the fact that you make efforts to not engage in personal attacks.
I personally appreciate your viewpoint, bill, and the fact that you make efforts to not engage in personal attacks.
I think the person who set the gold standard for such behavior was the late, great OlympiaGal. (I hope I spelled her screen name correctly.)
Mind you, she was a girl with many opinions. Most of them strongly held.
And she wasn’t afraid to mix it up with others on this blog. Often, it would start out with a “Now look here, smartypants…” then go off into something so side-splittingly funny that you’d almost fall out of your chair.
Let’s make our discourse worthy of her memory.
‘make efforts to not engage in personal attacks’
Oh, like saying this blog is a ‘wealth of mis-information,lies and hate’? Not this poster or that, but this blog. I’ll remind you that I put my real name on here every day. And if you are going to call me a racist, then I could think of other four letter words I might use.
Or like I said, he could just leave this ‘mis-informed, lying, racist’ blog and go elsewhere.
“because I didn’t want it to seem to be a direct attack.”
Seem. I love that word “seem”.
Feh. Some people are incapable of direct attack. Rather, it’s done in an underhand, seemingly (there’s that word again, seem) reasonable manner. “Everybody be nice, be nice, be nice, don’t offend anyone, you haters, but spread ‘em for your enemies and for God’s sake, BE NICE while you’re doing it.” Such people are so degenerate, they’d hand their own children over to a gang without a second thought, with instructions to wiggle extra NICE for the rapist. But it is always underhanded and VERY hidden and they put on a complete front of civility and often, intellectualism. And they like to needle people into anger and pull back in wounded surprise when someone spots them for who and what they are.
Folks like this exist at all levels of society, but the result is always the same, underhanded destruction. And usually their associates are too decent to recognize them for what they are.
Mind you, I’m just speaking in general here, not of anyone in particular.
Oh, like saying this blog is a ‘wealth of mis-information,lies and hate’? Not this poster or that, but this blog.
Ben, I think you’re reaching here and taking this too personally. I imagine what is meant by “this blog” is the blog postings and all the comments. Are you taking ownership and responsibility for all comments here? I don’t see why you should.
There are plenty of fair criticisms to be made about misinformation posted here, the tone of some of the posts, and yes, even personal attacks. Personally I appreciate the slack you let us have here regularly (though I think perhaps you give certain posters too much slack when they engage in personal attacks).
It is of course your “ball” and you can take it and go home if you like. Personally, I prefer this blog not be an echo chamber. There are a lot of smart people here with different perspectives and different life experiences. We’re not always going to agree, and at times need to be free to call each other out. Perhaps bill could have chosen his words better, but I really think you’re taking it personally when it likely wasn’t directed at you.
Ben; until I saw your post of 14:01:09 I really didn’t understand where you were coming from. I did not mean to say that you, Ben Jones, harbor hate or are nonfactual; my observation is that nothing could be further from the truth.
I’m a high school drop-out, I raised my two sons by myself and worked on the factory floor all my life ’til I retired; i know I lack social skills but I try.
I’m sorry I offended you and hope you’ll accept this apology.
Wrong. The poet was born in NYC of families that had been here before there was a United States. This blog is a wealth of mis-information,lies and hate.
‘This blog is a wealth of mis-information,lies and hate’
If you feel that way, why don’t you piss-off then? And don’t let the door hit your ass.
Ben, you are getting a little too uptight. You didn’t read between the lines. When somebody that has been spoon fed the stupidity of the powers that be, and our mass media, writes “mis-information, lies and hate” they really mean “truth, honesty and common sense”. In the minds of those tainted by political correctness, and conformity to the status quo, they must fight the truth at every turn.
I’m surprised this Krazy one didn’t call everybody on this blog a racist, sexist, anti-child, unpatriotic doomer and homophobe. That is about the speed of the typical brainwashed drone in 21st century America. If you hit a nerve you must be doing something right.
Nah, let the door hit it hard, and put some spikes in it first.
Ben; I don’t “piss-off” as you most eloquently put it because this blog is also a wealth of facts and links to relevant economic subjects as well as reasoned opinions as to the direction of the economy.
NYCityBoy; Wow! It’s like you’ve known me all my life!
It’s no wonder no one will hire you, you’re too smart.
A weath of mis-informed, hateful facts. Yes I too would treasure something of this rare nature.
‘I don’t “piss-off”
I note that you didn’t take issue with a particular comment, or say IMO, etc. That’s always fair game as long as you keep it civil. If you’re going to make blanket statements to the effect that we are all racists, which is BS, I can make you go away.
Krazy, typically when people post things as stupid as what you posted they are the foolish drones of which I wrote. If you didn’t mean what you posted then why did you post it?
You are mistaking me for the DJ.
And the DJ can’t get hired because he refers to everybody as ‘chickypoohs’. Even at his interviews. And in his resume. And especially on his cover letter.
Sorry NYCityBoy; you are correct, I was confusing you with Dj. My mistake.
You write of “truth, honesty and common sense”. The statement about a French poet (the author has graciously acknowledged an error) ; was that truth? The statement that “Every nation in the world has a tougher immigration policy than ours.”; was that truth?
I can’t say the The Pledge of Allegiance anymore. When I think about the oath, I can’t match it to the country I am growing older in. Maybe in the 60’s when I was in grade school it made sense.
I rather agree.
Well, Awaiting, we have some great memories, at least.
Don’t forget the Pledge was modified in the 1950s.
In Texas school children are required to recite the state pledge as well.
BTW, the original version of Pledge if Allegiance did not have a reference to the All Mighty or a Republic.
Yep, either this country was once great at one time, or we were young and naive, and we’re feed an illusion. My Engineer husband thinks we were feed BS.
I love you guys, even krazy bill. Life is too damn short to be a putz. I love my daily economic lessons here, too.
To many Texans, especially native Texans…Texas > U.S. Not just now, but always.
This short history of the Pledge appears correct as I recall it from many other sources.
http://www.oldtimeislands.org/pledge/pledge.htm
Kraz-
It’s not what you say–which I’ve generally agreed with over the years you’ve posted here– but the way it’s sometimes presented.
You are correct to call out misinformation presented as fact, and the xenophobic resentments of a few of the posters here are an ongoing embarrassment to the rest of us.
But remember this forum is Ben’s baby (well, school kid, now,) and he’s trying to raise us nice, so wipe your feet so you don’t track in mud, okay? (’Cause I enjoy what you have to say.)
Me too, Awaiting, loved the 60s upbringing. Course I was running around the farm fields in Vt w/my cat Fluffy following me all the while. My siblings and I waded in streams and jumped down from the trees on bare back horses and we had the trains passing by in the distrance. We climbed cliffs and built forts and stared at the stars on clear nights.
Maybe we just grew up.
But it sure was fun while it lasted.
I also love my daily economics at the blog. Miss it for a few days at a time and feel the withdrawal set in. Even when I don’t agree, I love knowing what people are talking about and what they care about, and what’s going on in their world.
ahansen: Praise from Caesar!
“the xenophobic resentments of a few of the posters here are an ongoing embarrassment to the rest of us.”
Speak for yourself. I’m not embarrassed, not in the least.
My fellow HBBs:
Please. Please. We are like a close family that supports each other through these strange and unsure times. We spar, we parry. But deep down we know that we are alike in more ways than we are different and that makes for a special bond, a bond to be nurtured, respected and appreciated. Always.
Sometimes we need to take time before our posts, take a deep breath and make sure none of us call names or offends our fellow bloggers.
Because every one of us, in our own unique, special way, has something of value to add to the polite debate. (except of course the morons)
So we’re the second easiest. Abd nobody comes close to absorbing as many immigrants as we do.
And who knows. Todays illegal immigrant might be tomorrows POTUS.
Not unless there’s an amendment to the Constitution, Liz. It will never happen.
“absorbing”
The unfortunate thing is that we’re not absorbing immigrants, they’re absorbing us. Maggots, feeding on the flesh of a dying America.
Even assuming the millions of illegals were “legalized”, what message does that send to people who followed the rules and are attempting to immigrate via legal channels? What message is sent to millions of anchor babies whose parents set an example for them? We don’t need no stinkin’ laws? When they age out of the welfare system, what then? Jobs? Are you kidding? No, no, babies, that’s where money comes from.
palmetto
You’re a honest, intelligent, and awake man. We’re on the same page. Our apt building is 95% illegals, and they have no allegiance whatsoever to this country. Even the grown Anchors are bad seeds.
I judge people by the content of their character, not by race, color, or socioeconomics.
There is a invasion going on ,no doubt about it . A friend of mind tells me that many of the illegals feel that America was stolen from them and it’s their Country anyway .Other people in essence say that the fat Americans deserve to loose everything because the rest of the Wold is entitled to their lifestyle . Our settlers conquered this Country ,laid a stake on it , and early Americans paid bitter prices in Wars to create the Country it became .
Real easy for” Raiders “from all over the World to want to feast on it for years now without wanting to stay or wanting to take over ,or not having any loyalty at all .
No doubt there was something about our Constitution that
set the ground work for a strong middle class .
Do any people really own any lands ,not if its conquered by one means or another . Invasion and raiding is a form of conquering .Not only did we not protect our Borders ,our Corporations see no borders anymore .People who are not into Protecting whatever was created will find out what happens .
“There is a invasion going on ,no doubt about it . A friend of mind tells me that many of the illegals feel that America was stolen from them and it’s their Country anyway”
That is what Mexican school children are taught (and it’s kind of true). After we won the Mexican war we did take the southwest from Mexico (via the Treaty of Guadalupe Victoria, IIRC). Of course that was 160+ years ago.
That is what Mexican school children are taught (and it’s kind of true). After we won the Mexican war we did take the southwest from Mexico (via the Treaty of Guadalupe Victoria, IIRC). Of course that was 160+ years ago.
And, ISTR from my history classes that the Mexican national government wasn’t too interested in its northwestern lands. Those were what were bought by the U.S. in the Gadsden Purchase.
Instead, the Mexican national government was most interested in what lay in and around Districto Central. (The DC is Mexico’s capital region.)
And, to this day, what matters most in Mexico is the DC area. It’s kind of like England and France in how the non-London and non-Parisian hinterlands are held in contempt.
“Those were what were bought by the U.S. in the Gadsden Purchase.”
The Gadsen Purchase was only for a relatively small strip of territory om what is today the southern portion of Arizona and New Mexico (about 30,000 square miles).
The bulk of Mexico that was passed over the US happened after Mexico’s defeat in the US-Mexico war and is known in the US as the “Mexican Cession”
From wikipedia:
“The cession of this territory from Mexico was a major goal of the war. California and New Mexico were captured soon after the start of the war and the last resistance there was subdued in January 1847, but Mexico would not accept the loss of territory. Therefore during 1847 United States troops invaded central Mexico and occupied the Mexican capital of Mexico City, but still no Mexican government was willing to ratify transfer of the northern territories to the U.S. It was uncertain whether any treaty could be reached. There was even an All of Mexico Movement proposing complete annexation of Mexico among Eastern Democrats, opposed by Southerners like John Calhoun who wanted additional territory for white Southerners and their black slaves but not the large population of central Mexico. Eventually Nicholas Trist negotiated the Treaty of Guadalupe Hidalgo ceding only California and New Mexico in early 1848 after President Polk had already attempted to recall him from Mexico as a failure. The U.S. Senate approved the treaty, rejecting amendments from Jefferson Davis to also annex most of northeastern Mexico and by Daniel Webster to not even take California and New Mexico”
There is a joke that makes the rounds in Mexico:
Q: What was President Santa Anna’s biggest mistake?
A: He only gave half of Mexico to the US.
Note: This joke is not funny when told by a gringo.
Nobody wants the illegals to be legalized. The employers want to go on paying cash under the table (or at least have the option of flauting basic labor laws, knowing the employees are too scared to report it), and the illegals themselves want to continue to live in the shadows, collect their bennies, and send money home.
btw, whatever happened to the immigration movement? A few years ago, there were marches and protesters galore, demanding to come out of the shadows. At the height of their influence they attacked even Ken Burns for “not recognizing the contribution of Latinos” in his documentary of WWII. Where did that go? They faded away.
btw, whatever happened to the immigration movement? A few years ago, there were marches and protesters galore, demanding to come out of the shadows. At the height of their influence they attacked even Ken Burns for “not recognizing the contribution of Latinos” in his documentary of WWII. Where did that go? They faded away.
And that’s true, even here in AZ, which was a hotbed of said movement. A few years ago, they were out in force, and then poof! they were gone. Even SB 1070 didn’t get them rallying the way the aforementioned movement did.
“btw, whatever happened to the immigration movement?”
It’s taking a breather.
“A few years ago, they were out in force, and then poof! they were gone. Even SB 1070 didn’t get them rallying the way the aforementioned movement did.”
Here’s what happened: LaRaza and MeCha and the various Aztlan groups realized the bowel “movement” in the streets was a huge tactical error. Citizens weren’t intimidated by it, they were pissed to the max. And have been ever since. Yessir, it was a real Sputnik moment.
I agree, Palmy—the reason they disappeared is that they did not get the reaction that they expected.
But I don’t think they intended to intimidate; I suspect that they thought people would rally to their cause, and support their oppressed masses.
The reaction was much more along the lines of “eff off, what gives you the right to protest if you are here illegally??”
I think it scared people.
It’s one thing to have them cut your grass, but marching in the streets is a complete different story.
Prime is contained …..
“What gives you the right to protest if you are here illegally?”
Because possession is 9/10th of the law . If your employers
give jobs ,and the invaded Government gives benefits ,and laws aren’t enforced ,than you win by the actions of the Government ,not the talk or the laws .
Better learn how to say “Don’t Shoot” in Spanish .
I often wonder if movements like this are started by seed money of special interests. When the money goes the organization dies, even if there are a lot of people who in general support it. If special interests wanted politicians to stop the flow of cheap labor, some seed money to organizations that get protests going might be considered a good investment.
“Better learn how to say “Don’t Shoot” in Spanish”
First time visitors to SoCal are often shocked and amazed at the level of Mexicanization that is self evident.
We have some friends (the same ones who wouldn’t move) that volunteer at the local public school (playground monitors).
One day as “Mary” was monitoring a recess period she was approached by a couple that had recently moved from New Jersey. They ran up to “Mary” and the first words out of their mouths was “Thank God! You speak English!” (apparently Mary was the only volunteer playground monitor who could speak English). There New Jerseys went on to comment that “We thought this was the United States.”
Better learn how to say “Don’t Shoot” in Spanish .
I’d rather learn to say “Feelin’ Lucky, Punk?”
I remember one of the immigration marches in Los Angeles. The marchers were demanding to come out of the shadows etc etc — while waving the Mexican Flag (lots of Mexican flags) and chanting in Spanish.
The citizens promptly called up their Congressmen and said: if they want to be Americans, whence come those Mexican flags? Looks more like an invasion.
The next march was a month later in DC. I was on the Metro at the time. Those immigrants were wearing every scraps of good Old Glory and Red White and Blue that they could get their hands on — as if they could convince the citizen that, oh no, we really want to be American this time.
The p*ssed off the citizens even more.
I think the immigrants are going to play the language card to take jobs. I’ve heard that in some parts of Arizona and Cali, bilingual is a requirment in the job listings, especially if it’s to supervise undocumented work teams. thus assuing that the anchor babies (those that were smart enough to learn English) get those jobs.
“I’ve heard that in some parts of Arizona and Cali, bilingual is a requirment in the job listings”
And don’t forget Florida!
“I’ve heard that in some parts of Arizona and Cali, bilingual is a requirment in the job listings”
And don’t forget Florida!
Isn’t this also required in areas that border the Canadian province of Quebec? Last time I went to Quebec, it was pretty monolingual up there.
Why would the Quebecois go to the northern reaches of Maine, NH, VT and NY? Well, OK, northern VT has a few nice places, but I have never noticed anyone speaking French in a business in Burlington or Plattsburg.
Palmy,
You may be right in some indignation, but you are totally wrong in your over-generalization about immigrants. I married one from Japan and helped her get a BA with honors in International Business.
She works at a very successful Japanese-owned business in CA that has many employees and pays lots of taxes.
Hello? Wake up!
I did not “absorb” her; I fell in love.
BTW, no babies.
Hope your life hands you better and less resentment.
Funny — Argentina comes to my mind as a precedent for the U.S. for reasons other than immigration policies.
I saw a great movie from there over the weekend — The Secret in Their Eyes. It reminded me that I’d like to visit, to see what life might be like here in the aftermath of Generation Greed.
“Funny — Argentina comes to my mind as a precedent for the U.S. for reasons other than immigration policies.”
+1
You still need to have money to move to Argentina don’t you?
They don’t let in poor, uneducated, unemployed aliens.
I am concerned about the Mexicanization of the US, as well.
But I also remember that there were terrible things that were prophesied that didn’t come true.
Remember when the Soviet Union was going to nuke America?
Remember when the Arabs were going to destroy civilization by refusing to sell oil?
Remember when the Japanese were going to own the US?’
Remember when Y2k was going stop everyone’s stove-top clock?
History (or the future, depending on how you look at it) always has an “X” factor.
A lot of times, the X factor is technology. I look to hand-held language translators to alleviate a lot of the friction between different groups in the US, for instance.
As a final note, when I ride my bike to and from work, I see a lot of people - mostly male. The young white guys on all-nighters (here in Vegas), urban street-people, burnt-out old guys and joggers. Of these groups, it’s the older, grizzled, hispanic-looking workers who most reliably return my nod and smile.
Also, remember how we had to put “God” in the pledge of allegiance and on our money in order to keep the Communists from taking over?
Oh wait… that one worked!
“it’s the older, grizzled, hispanic-looking workers who most reliably return my nod and smile.”
Careful, now, you’re profiling.
Anyway, what does a “hispanic” look like, huh, lavi? C’mon, I want to hear what characteristics would lead you to think someone was “hispanic” looking.
Really, please, I want to know what a “hispanic” looks like.
Really, please, I want to know what a “hispanic” looks like.
Black hair, brown eyes, dark skin - sort of like me.
Of course when you say Argentine movie, I think of “Apartment Zero,” which since it stars Colin Firth may not really count.
That was me. And I think I said “almost?”
Oops, no I didn’t.
Then I should have qualified that, because of all the first world countries I’ve looked into emigrating to, I haven’t been able find a single one where I just waltz in with little ID, no job, no money and THEN apply for citizenship, let alone sneak across the border and find many organizations willing to help me stay, like say, my former country’s consulates.
Fed’s Dudley Says Central Bank Stimulus Is Helping to Spur Economic Growth ~ Bloomberg
Federal Reserve Bank of New York President William Dudley said the central bank’s purchases of bonds have made the outlook for the economy “considerably brighter,” with growth likely to quicken this year and next.
“Several notable forces combined to encourage the resumption of stronger growth,” including plans to purchase $600 billion in bonds through June and “the lagged effects of its previous measures,” Dudley said today in a New York speech. Banks also “did begin to ease standards somewhat in the second half of 2010,” he said.
Dudley, who said the central bank’s plan to buy $600 billion of bonds through June has “helped to ease financial conditions,” is among Fed officials defending the central bank’s decision last month to press ahead with its second round of asset purchases in an effort to create jobs.
From the Sac-Bee this morning…Maybe someone can post the link…Here is the headline;
Hiring picks up in Silicon Valley
By Dale Kasler
dkasler@sacbee.com
Published: Tuesday, Feb. 15, 2011 - 12:00 am | Page 1A
Last Modified: Tuesday, Feb. 15, 2011 - 6:36 am
http://www.sacbee.com/2011/02/15/3403232/hiring-picks-up-in-silicon-valley.html
Silly Valley. Isn’t that place where need a masters degree just to get a job as a janitor?
Realtors Are Scumbags.
exeter
Evidently you don’t understand the art of overcoming objections, emotional anchoring, puffing BS up a person’s arse. Oh, and spending someone else’s hard earned money, pretending a HVAC unit is petty cash, but look at the nice new stove. LOL
(We’ve alway bought new for these reasons, but we want a tree tunnel st this time.)
Awaiting…. I build for a living. In a SFR, mechanical is petty cash.
Oop-C. I misread your post.
exeter
Good point in general, but it always depends on cash flow. You’re right, in that a roof isn’t petty cash. Can you share the cost of a tile vs. a composite per sq ft on a single story for me? (a general rule). Thanks
Estimate by RS Means likely won’t do much for you. Figure the differential: Time for ceramic tile is 2x greater than VCT, possibly more…. say even 2.5x. Materials costs are what they are. You can price them. Obviously the price of ceramic tile work goes up if it’s a floor(add dura rock, thin set).
“It’s class warfare and my class is winning.” Warren Buffett
“Uncle Sam, you delivered. People will second-guess your specific decisions; you can always count on that. But just as there is a fog of war, there is a fog of panic — and, overall, your actions were remarkably effective.”
–Buffett praising the bailouts
“…your actions were remarkably effective.”
At what? Shifting even more of America’s collective wealth into the catcher’s mitts of the top 1%?
Oh yes Warren Buffet . Berkshire Hathaway is the Top Institutional owner of Moody’s credit Agency . I think 50 billion might be enough
punishment for mis-rating CDO securities ,but than again 500
billion might be more in line with the extent of the damage .
Warren Buffet got bailed out also . Does anybody wonder why things were done the way they were done .
You right Warren Buffet ,your winning . So I hope you feel good about winning with a stacked deck and bribed Politicians all these years .
“You right Warren Buffet ,your winning.”
He’ll keel over one of these days. Death is the great equalizer.
For some reason, that doesn’t really comfort me.
He’ll keel over one of these days. Death is the great equalizer.
6+ Billion humans
A good goal for everyone: 100 years of experiencing life…
2111 = 6 Billion humans finished with looking & wondering & suffering…
“…the sun doth still toss it light this morning?”
(Mr. Cole, what’s that hanging by a thin snag?…oh, a bird’s nest, built with pieces of colored yarn from the day-care center, how creative!”)
Sounds to me like Warren understands that eventually the formerly middle class will wake up and understand what has happened to them. Then they will want some scalps.
Yes, but within our lifetimes or 100 of years from now?
I don’t know about the rest of you, but I’m not getting any younger.
Ride BNSF, if possible.
Remember I said people were spending locally:
From today’s Syracuse Post Standard:
CNY sales tax revenue jumps 5.2 percent as consumers start spending again
The increase was significant because it brought sales tax revenues back to where they were in 2008, before the national recession drove unemployment up and prompted consumers to curtail their spending, especially on big ticket items such as homes and cars.
Car dealer Mike Romano said sales showed strong improvements in 2010, rising 3.5 percent to 10 percent or more at his Toyota, Chrysler, Ford and Mercedes-Benz dealerships. And those sales remained strong in January, he said.
Romano noted, however, that 2009, one of the worst years in history for the automobile industry, was not tough to beat.
“Anything was going to be better than 2009,” he said.
Driving the increase in spending was an improved job market. There were 1,400 more jobs in the Syracuse area in December than there were in the same month in 2009.
****************
They’re breaking ground in the new CNY Cancer Treatment Center this spring. Gonna need more housing for more medical staff. The local Lockheed Martin continues to win new contracts even as other LM locations experience lay-offs. Several colleges and universities have received some record gifts from well to do alumni who remembered them in their wills. So even though they were nervous for a while I haven’t heard any concern of late. There were several college graduates I know that took a min wage job waiting out the hiring lull. All but one has gotten their career job. The one still waiting is a German major. Whatever fear existed in 2008 appears to have dissipated at least among the majority that are still working. I don’t think it will return until the next market shock.
the next market shock….
Should be entertaining. Prices of things that many watch are back in the range of the past frenzy, without the raging demand for consumption beneath them.
House prices in my 25 mile radius are now showing down 16% YOY. We really are behind the curve out here in the NY boonies. When the market next falls, we’ll probably have rising prices for the following three years.
We’re just outside of Syracuse. I think if you go further out you quickly see numbers like you’re experiencing Blue.
Our sales numbers have been devestated but inventory is back to 2007 levels. It has a definite split where median affordability is. You can buy a home at 3X median here but its in pretty crappy shape and you will put at least another $100k in to get it up to what I consider livable (clean not stainless and marble). Of course, then you’ll have priced the home completely out of the neighborhood. I hear this is where most of the recent sales action is.
Beyond that there’s a big break and then you’ve got homes $75 -$100k over 3x median. And even they are sometimes not in the best of shape. They’re just in supposedly more desired neighborhoods. Unfortunately they’re the ones that also carry the $12K or above yearly taxes w/them. Might have seemed worth the stretch if they were updated and clean but you’d be surprised how many are not. The few I considered seriously last fall have all been sold.
I am getting hotel fatigue. I will be glad when I can move back onto the boat for another season. I’m ready to make an offer on a patch of woods to park the RV next winter and just call it the BLUE SKYE PRESERVE. Screw the taxman. And the housing bubble. And the bank. And the 10,000 mile salad.
Check the zoning first.
“Unfortunately they’re the ones that also carry the $12K or above yearly taxes w/them.”
I still can’t get over that. Every time I read about how much property tax you guys pay over there it just blows my mind. The median property tax in my neck of the woods is like $1200 a year.
No kidding. People say that Texas’s prop taxes are high, but you would have to own a fricking mansion to have to pay 12K a year in taxes.
A note on Palmdale wishing prices, and rentals:
The median wishing price for 93552 has finally stepped back down to a new post-bubble low of $175K after having increased over the past year. ( I assume due to $8K tax credit ) Each post-bubble spring sitting on the market season has brought increased inventory despite the shadow stuff on the sidelines. Current inventory is running double this time last year which should make for an interesting spring.
I saw a rental that tempted me, 3+2 in the country club REO asking $105K. Pretty easy 100X rent at that price. The golden question here is whether or not section 8 will continue paying above market rents, thus keeping a floor on prices. Any thoughts? I’m guessing before this happens we’ll go to a new currency.
The new house is awesome, I’m still a terrible farmer but I have fun trying. I liked the Gandhi quote yesterday, they are fighting me at work now, so I should be winning any day now.
Best of luck HBBers, and thanks to most who give me some enlightening and entertaining reading during my stationary bike rides.
The golden question here is whether or not section 8 will continue paying above market rents, thus keeping a floor on prices. Any thoughts? ‘
I thought LA moved their welfare cases to Palmdale to save costs back in the late 1980’s
Yea I guess they will keep paying Section 8. probably cheaper up there than back in LA. If they stop or cut back expect riots.
Meanwhile silver looks to take a breather(maybe) before resuming a rush to $50 later this year.
I’m looking forward to it. When that happens it will be the chartists dream. A super cycle classic tits up formation spanning a lifetime. From there, we could either continue the biggest expansion of credit in history, or not. Either way, stuff to tell your grandchildren bedtime stories about.
A super cycle classic tits up formation spanning a lifetime
Is that a standard TA pattern?
Nah, they call it a “cup”. I just look at things differently.
Malloy to seek $2 billion in employee concessions, savings over two years
February 15, 2011
By Mark Pazniokas
The Malloy administration’s confirmation it will seek deep concessions follows by a day its announcement the governor will propose a $1.5 billion tax increase when he releases his budget Wednesday.
The unions and Rell negotiated a concession deal that saved more than $900 million total spread across three fiscal years. But less than 42 percent of that savings, $372.9 million, came out of workers’ pockets through a wage freeze, furlough days and higher health care costs.
One-third of those concession was what Malloy has derided as a budget gimmick: the deferral of contributions into the pension fund
The state pays $1 billion a year for health care for more than 50,000 state employees, 42,000 retirees and their families, but health benefits are set by an agreement that was negotiated by former Gov. John G. Rowland and runs until 2017.
“For Connecticut to move beyond its current economic crisis, its budgetary crisis, we’re going to need to make headway with our employees on returning to a sustainable system of compensation and benefit allocation,” Malloy said last month.
http://www.ctmirror.org/story/11515/malloy-seek-2-billion-employee-concessions-over-two-years?quicktabs_1=1 - -
“The unions have beeen restrained in their reaction since Malloy put state employees on notice two weeks ago that he does not believe current compensation levels paid to state employees are sustainable.”
market pulse
Feb. 15, 2011, 9:00 a.m. EST
Net foreign buys of U.S. assets $65.9 bln in Dec.
By Greg Robb
WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) — Foreign investors bought a net $65.9 billion of long-term U.S. assets in December down from $85.1 billion in November, the Treasury Department said Tuesday. International demand for Treasurys decelerated to an increase of $54.7 billion in December from a gain of $61.7 billion in the prior month.
…
International demand for Treasurys decelerated to an increase of $54.7 billion in December from a gain of $61.7 billion in the prior month.
So this means that it’s still rising in the endless game of I’ll buy your treasuries if you buy mine.
House of Representatives
House Prepares to Chop Spending for Remainder of 2011
Published February 15, 2011
WASHINGTON — Republicans are ready to start on Tuesday a three-day push on a blueprint for reducing spending for the remainder of the 2011 budget year.
The Democratic-majority in Congress last year never passed a budget to manage spending for the federal government for the fiscal year that runs Oct. 1-Sept. 30. As a result, Congress has been approving short-term extensions of 2010’s budget.
Congress has approved a continuation of that budget to keep government operating until March 4. If the House, Senate and President Obama cannot come to an agreement before March 4 for the rest of the year, that could trigger a government shutdown. Though Republicans are not saying they are willing to do that and prefer to force deep cuts in spending, they haven’t ruled it out.
“It’s obviously still a possibility because the government ceases to be fund, government agencies, on March 4, and that’s really what this is all about,” said Rep. Paul Ryan, chairman of the House Budget Committee and Republican point-man on spending.
“The president wants to lock in these really high spending levels. Twenty-four percent increase in base government spending, 84 percent on domestic agencies, when you count the stimulus. We want to pull back all those spending agreements that he’s trying to lock in. There’s the impasse,” he said.
…
Krugeman put up a chart the other day that suggested that total gov spending (I believe state and fed) has not changed it’s trajectory over the last decade. Ie increased federal spending offset decreased spending by other gov agencies. The arguement being there really has been no gov stimulus.
Since some countries are going thru austerity, US needs to ramp up its spending to offset decreased spending in the world.
—Krugman
How far back in time was an 8.7% drop in San Diego home prices between December-January “normal”? I’m guessing not before 2007…
Median home price in county drops 8.7% in January
By Lily Leung, UNION-TRIBUNE
Monday, February 14, 2011 at 2:13 p.m.
Median price and sales were both down in January, normal for the holiday season, San Diego real estate experts said.
John Gastaldo / Union-Tribune staff
Housing prices in San Diego County took their usual fall from December to January, a time when consumers spend more time at shopping malls than at open houses.
The median price for all homes dropped to $304,000 from $333,000 in December, or 8.7 percent.
It was the biggest December-to-January drop recorded by DataQuick Information Systems whose figures date back to January 1988. But real estate experts say it likely reflected the usual sluggishness of the holiday season. A year earlier, the median price dropped 7.6 percent to $305,000.
The number of sales this year also slid month-over-month: A total of 2,248 units were sold in January, down 29.6 percent from the 3,191 sold in December. A year earlier, sales were off 36 percent to 2,322.
…
Matt Perry, U-T
San Diego County housing, Dec. 2010-Jan. 2011
Jan. 2011 Dec. 2010 Jan. 2010 % change YOY*
Median prices
Single-family resale $350,000 $360,000 $345,000 1.4%
Condo resale $200,000 $212,500 $201,500 -0.7%
New homes* $398,750 $500,000 $406,000 -1.8%
San Diego County $304,000 $333,000 $305,000 -0.3%
Sales
Single-family resale 1,364 1,927 1,403 -2.8%
Condo resale 746 935 735 1.5%
New homes* 138 329 184 -25.0%
San Diego County 2,248 3,191 2,322 -3.2%
Figures include new construction and condo conversions. YOY means year-over-year percentage change. Source: DataQuick Information Systems
I honestly can’t believe that a one month drop of 8.8% even happened! What the hell! Clearly that can’t continue forever, but I sure hope it does for a while! If I was currently in escrow, I think I would s4!t my pants and bail unless I had negotiated 20% off the local comps already and was helping drag that median down myself. Anyway, wow… just wow… I wonder what the adjusted numbers will look like next month. Will they adjust it down even further so that the Feb numbers can have an uptick?
It is possible that this is a pent up adjustment or perhaps just statistical white noise. In real estate you really have to look at the longer term moving averages…
http://www.zillow.com/homedetails/2323-Adams-Ave-APT-205-San-Diego-CA-92116/16953881_zpid/
The above is a Zillow listing for a condo with which I’m familiar. The trends and values look about right. I’m not sure about an 8.8 percent decline in one month, but it looks like values may have dropped 10+ percent in the past 6 months, perhaps the beginnings of the second leg down after a dead cat bounce.
As for the history of these units, 2-br units peaked between $400 and 450K around 2005 and have apparently now fallen to around $275K. They sold for around $100K as late as the late 1990’s.
We are partying like its 1997!
Orlando home prices at 13 year low:
http://www.orlandosentinel.com/business/os-orlando-home-sales-20110214,0,685316.story
That’s 14 years’ worth of price retrenchments (2011-1997 = 14).
Only 14 more years of price retrenchments to go before you guys get back to FPSS’ predicted level of 1983 prices. (Of course, I suppose Detroit is already there…all real estate IS local, you know!).
That’s a lot of falling knives and sliced fingers. Just think how many times “the bottom” has been falsely called during this period?
Every single month since the perpetration of the soft landing lie.
I guess guys pushing hot dog vending carts at Disney can’t afford to buy houses after all.
Sure he can….. at a much lower price. But we know that idea is violently opposed by the Housing Crime Syndicate.
Agreed. Just pointing out the collective cognitive dissonnance that has the pundits in its merciless grasp.
Something to keep in mind: replacement cost.
While its true that replacement cost has no bearing on resales (as they are in a sense a sunk cost), it would eventually affect new construction.
Case in point: while construction costs are lower in the third world the cost of house there does not drop to a level that matches average income levels, which is why the poor in those countries live in carboard shacks in shanty towns.
The good thing for the Disney hot dog vendor is that there is a ton of empty inventory in O-town. At some point the banks will write it off (probably when its ready to collapse) and John Castmember will be able to buy a Condo for 30 grand.
can’t afford ??
Never could….
America’s Debt Crisis
Left is livid over budget safety net cuts
By Charles Riley, staff reporter
February 15, 2011: 7:34 AM ET
NEW YORK (CNNMoney) — It doesn’t come as a shock that Republicans aren’t thrilled with President Obama’s budget proposal. But Democrats aren’t exactly jumping for joy either.
Obama’s budget targets community block grants, a program that helps low-income people pay their energy bills, and the popular Pell grant program to aid college students. All are part of the social safety net Democrats often fight to protect.
And that has the left howling.
The Progressive Change Campaign Committee, a liberal organization that boasts 700,000 members, took Obama to task before the budget was even officially released.
“Proposing even more tax breaks for Wall Street banks while slashing and burning necessary government programs is right-wing radicalism, and no Democratic president should be part of it,” the group said in a statement.
…
Managing to piss off the Left and Right is really hitting the lobbyist hard.
“necessary government programs”
Why does that phrase stop me cold?
I think he meant “necessary government pogroms” there. Gotta whip the masses into a frenzy!
Alternative Energy Hoax: $320 million down the drain.
http://www.ajc.com/business/plant-closure-bursts-ga-838588.html
“Vinod Khosla, the dot-com billionaire behind Range Fuels….”
Now there’s a man who knows how to ride a mania, and when to get off.
I listened to him talk about alternative energy a year ago. What an uninspiring bore………
Sounds like somebody sold some technology they didn’t have. This is more commen than we’d like to admit.
AKA vaporware.
Happens a lot. What I can’t figure out is… why? How do you find people with that kind of money, yet are that dumb?
The university here is all hot to use biomass for its physical plant.
Have I mentioned fraud and waste in local governments?
Here’s a classic example of such from good old Tucson.
Seems as though it’s the right time to put a bicycle boulevard on a nearby street. Far be it from me to disagree with such an idea.
But they way they’re going about it makes my blood boil. And I’ve gone public with this sentiment.
That is weird. It obviously looks like they are deliberately trying to create resentment.
Eco, that’s precisely what I’ve been thinking.
Meanwhile, further down 4th Avenue, they’re expanding the trolley route, and those tracks already eat bicyclists for breakfast. I don’t know about this city sometimes.
Slim,
Our town, ruled by the liberal elite who
knows what’s best, spent $80,000 to paint
a bike lane green, on both sides of a narrow, winding street, for a distance of three city blocks.
And then the jerks in Salem, passed a law
which forbids a motorist from passing a cyclist closer than three feet, forcing the motorist to cross the double line to give this
eco-freak room to ride his bicycle on a road
he, in good conscious, should not be on.
We have cyclists killed, run over, mangled. We have motorist who have head ons from trying to avoid the riders. We see
riders riding three abreast down narrow country roads that have 55 mph limits and
coming around a sharp corner, you can’t slow down safely without veering into the
oncoming lane.
Please note: I ride a bike, I ride on streets and roads that give everyone room.
I ride responsibly and safely. I’ve been riding top line derailleurs since the early
1960’s.
Dumb question of the day:
With housing prices still dropping almost everywhere in the U.S. where homes are sold, how is the banksters’ “buy and hold” residential real estate investing strategy working out for them?
With housing prices still dropping almost everywhere in the U.S. where homes are sold, how is the banksters’ “buy and hold” residential real estate investing strategy working out for them?
Not very well, IMHO.
Case in point from my nabe: House near a major intersection emptied out, oh, a couple of years ago. I spied a Notice of Trustee Sale there last spring.
Apparently, that didn’t work, because the house sprouted a “for sale” sign. Looked to be one of those agencies that handles a lot of foreclosures.
Over the weekend, the sign came down, but the house doesn’t look like someone’s about to move into it. To me, it looks like it’s just going to sit there, abandoned.
Did the bank walk away? I don’t know. But I’ll try to find out.
With housing prices still dropping almost everywhere in the U.S. where homes are sold, how is the banksters’ “buy and hold” residential real estate investing strategy working out for them?
It is working GREAT! They sold ALL of these mortgages to Freddie and Fannie at PAR.
All these banks are doing NOW is “servicing” these loans - in which they get a cut.
Under the terms of the government’s 2008 emergency takeover of Fannie and Freddie, the Treasury must pump money into either firm whenever its worth, as measured by assets minus liabilities, goes into the red. Late last year, the Obama administration pledged unlimited backing.
Fannie and Freddie have been contentious in Washington for years. Republicans have seized on the companies’ historically close relationship with Democrats, pointing out that Democratic lawmakers have often defended the companies’ roles in the housing market and been showered with campaign cash. Republicans also say the firms illustrate the dangers of the government’s large role in the mortgage market.
Democratic lawmakers and the Obama administration have resisted efforts to close down the companies, warning that they play an important role in supporting the housing market. Democrats say that disrupting efforts to spur a housing recovery could endanger the wider economy.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/05/10/AR2010051002850.html
“It is working GREAT! They sold ALL of these mortgages to Freddie and Fannie at PAR.
All these banks are doing NOW is “servicing” these loans - in which they get a cut.”
Ding, ding, ding!! We have a winner!
Nothing like a taxpayer guaranteed GSE to make the Banking Clan happy!
Uh, didn’t Obama just say he wanted to shut down Freddie and Fannie?
(rhetorical question)
Great, because unlike the rest of us, they can hold the assets at book value, show profits, and pay themselves bonuses. If their investors ever get nervous about this strategy, they can always scream “systemic risk” and get more free money from the Fed.
Working out just fine. They get to dump their losses on FANNIE & FREDDIE. The housing prices are now pretty much irrelevant to bankster’s profits. The taxpayer got stuck with all the losses. Enjoy.
Only in the case of bankruptcy at the federal level will losses matter to banksters again. That’s still a few years off, until them they’ll loot all they can.
Exactly right Mike in Miami .
“Only in the case of bankruptcy at the federal level will losses matter to banksters again. That’s still a few years off, until them they’ll loot all they can.”
And by definition, when the US defaults it will mean that there is nothing left to steal.
This problem is easily fixed: Bust up the mortgage trusts into small,competitive, locally-responsible service-oriented firms. And put some of the banksters who made a mint off the robo-signing scam behind bars, for good measure.
As regards “no choice,” American consumers always have the option to rent, or to make enough money or to purchase a cheap enough domicile so they can buy with cash.
Consumers captive to bad home mortgage system
By Gerald Helguero | February 12, 2011 9:08 PM EST
Many U.S. consumers have no choice and are held captive to home mortgage-related companies that are often aggressively fast, commit errors in paperwork and refuse to answer questions, and whose continuing problems are holding back the country’s economic recovery, a top U.S. regulator said on Friday.
For mortgage servicing firms - which are often linked with some of the nation’s biggest banks and have been under fire over the past year for making mistakes on foreclosures - “nothing much has changed” since the start of the financial crisis in 2007, said Sarah Bloom Raskin, a member of the Board of Governors at the U.S. Federal Reserve.
“With few adequate remedies to provide meaningful recourse in the event errors occur–after all, it’s not as if consumers have a choice regarding who does their servicing–many consumers find themselves captive to practices that have emphasized speed and aggressive timeframes over responsiveness, accuracy, and completeness,” she said.
“Well, now it seems to me we have reached a point where this sign of failure is hindering our economy’s ability to rebound,” she said.
Lenders in today’s market often don’t hold on to their loans, selling off the rights to service them.
“In many cases, the company that you send your payment to is not the company that owns your loan,” according to the Federal Trade Commission’s website.
…
I thought it was different in Colorado, but apparently I was mistaken.
Top 10 states with highest foreclosure rate
February 10, 2011 2:28 PM EST
Colorado
The sign at the IBM facility near Boulder, Colorado is seen with the Boulder Flatiron mountains in the background, September 8, 2009.
The local paper the other day was packed with foreclosure legal announcements, and Larimer County is supposed to be way below the state average.
I’ll bet its really bad in places like Aurora and Pueblo. I’ve also heard that Colo Springs is getting clobbered.
Meanwhile there are nabes in Denver where there are bidding wars! Go figure.
Ever since Craigslist came out, newspaper classified sections have been toast. They only thing keeping them going now are the “legal notices” which nowadays are predominantly about foreclosures.
Colorado,
Do you think these were mostly infestors that went the jingle mail route or were these properties primary SFRs for most of the mortgage holders?
The last time I was in Aurora I found myself wishing I was armed. It seemed like it was full of the folks pushed out by the gentrification of the inner city of Denver.
“Do you think these were mostly infestors that went the jingle mail route or were these properties primary SFRs for most of the mortgage holders?”
Hard to say. In my neck of the woods there weren’t a lot of flippers or “investors”. We used to have those “We buy ugly houses” and “Getting foreclosed: call xxx-xxx-xxxx” Bill boards, but they are gone.
As for places like Aurora or Springs, I really don’t know.
What I do know is that while our official UE rate is around 8%, finding a full time job in most fields is like finding a virgin in a whorehouse.
I’ve also heard that Colo Springs is getting clobbered. Meanwhile there are nabes in Denver where there are bidding wars! Go figure ??
The urban centers seem to be holding up…I don’t think they have lost tax revenue (as a percentage) and jobs at the same rate that sub-urban & the drive-till-you-qualify sub-sub-urban area’s have experienced..
“Housing seizures” sound unpleasant. Are they linked to epilepsy?
The Atlantic Home
Housing Seizures Rise
Feb 10 2011, 12:38 PM ET
By Megan McArdle
Any discussion about house prices ends up dwelling on the “shadow inventory”–the backlogs of houses that really need to be sold, but nonetheless aren’t on the market. There are the owners who want or need to move, the banks who are too overwhelmed to foreclose on everyone who’s behind, and the bank-owned houses that haven’t been put on the market yet because what’s the point when there are four other foreclosures for sale on the same block? As prices tick up, those houses will be put on the market–which will, of course, depress prices again.
Our own Dan Indiviglio reports that the shadow inventory may be shifting towards real inventory:
…
So I’ve been monitoring specific states, towns and villages on PhoneyMae’s site. The games are non-stop. Disappearing inventory…. very specifically, a house(one I’m not interested in) again magically re-appeared after getting statused “in contract” for the 3rd time. Now this house started out at $65k in 2008. It’s now $29k and statused as a “new listing”. As far as I can tell, it’s never been sold.
Endless games, endless inventory……
Where is PhoneyMae’s vast REO inventory going to go when they finally get shut down? Will there be a new McMansion homestead act to hand back taxpayer-owned REO to interested end-user American home buyers?
Maybe the inventory will be repurchased from say the BofA “good bank” versus the BofA “bad bank” spin off.
exeter
“PhoneyMae’s” LOL- Love it!
The re-list could also be partly due to not passing inspection, or another contingency, but I bet you’re probably right.
Fourth-Quarter Shadow Inventory Update: Drop In Liquidations, Stable Cure Rates Indicate Increased Foreclosure Timelines
Publication date: 25-Jan-2011 15:17:17 EST
The volume of distressed nonagency residential mortgage properties in the U.S. continues to fall, but at an ever-slowing pace. Standard & Poor’s Ratings Services currently estimates that the principal balance of these distressed homes amounts to about $450 billion, representing nearly one-third of the nonagency residential mortgage-backed securities (RMBS) market currently outstanding. We define this yet-to-be absorbed “shadow inventory” of distressed properties as outstanding properties whose borrowers are (or recently were) 90 days or more delinquent on their mortgage payments, properties currently or recently in foreclosure, or properties that are real estate owned (REO).
…
Updated 1 hour, 5 minutes ago.
Seattle home price recovery still years out
By TIM HAECK
KIRO Radio
It could take five years, maybe longer, for Seattle-area housing prices to recover from the recession.
An analysis by the Seattle-based real estate housing site Zillow calculates that local housing prices are down 31 percent from a peak in 2007. Windermere’s Pat Grimm, on Capitol Hill, thinks prices could go even lower.
“The reason I think it’s a possibility is because of this so-called ’shadow inventory,’ you just do not know the depth of that and how long that could linger,” said Grimm.
He’s talking about a glut of homes in foreclosure and other forms of distress, which are holding all prices down and keeping many non-distressed homes off the market.
“Some sellers have been reticent about putting their houses on the market in terms of competing with other listings that are priced too low and it’s kind of gotten to a tipping point for some sellers who say, ‘Gee, it doesn’t make sense for me to sell unless I absolutely have to,’” said Windermere’s Grimm.
…
Fannie Mae Foreclosure Prices in Allegheny County Driven Below $35,000
Median pricing of Freddie Mac / Fannie Mae foreclosure listings in
Allegheny County now lead the area in low-priced foreclosures for sale, according to RealtyStore.
Online PR News – 14-February-2011 –Santa Barbara, CA
The median price of a Freddie Mac / Fannie Mae foreclosure listing is now $34,900 in Allegheny County, Pennsylvania, according to RealtyStore dot com. Foreclosed houses listed for sale by government sponsored enterprises (GSE’s) lead the Allegheny/Pittsburgh market in terms of low prices. Although the total number of foreclosure listings in Allegheny County is relatively small, the area’s median foreclosure list price, including bank foreclosures listed for sale, is nearly 70% below the market median price. RealtyStore’s study of foreclosure trends in the area included foreclosure listing counts, pricing and listings by REO seller.
“Foreclosure listings are skewing to significantly lower prices in Allegheny County, including metro Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania,” commented Peter Ranck, Vice President for RealtyStore. “Although the gross number of foreclosures for sale, including Fannie Mae, banks and HUD homes, is relatively small compared to other markets, the foreclosure median price differential is tremendous. The Detroit, Michigan area still offers some of the lowest priced foreclosed homes in the nation with a median price of $24,900, but the Allegheny market is offering prices that rival the next low-price leading markets such as Cleveland, Ohio and St. Louis, Missouri, where Fannie Mae foreclosure median prices run $30,500 and $39,750 respectively.”
…
Oil City?
Oil City is north and east of Pittsburgh, which is the seat of Allegheny County.
That’s an HBB old school reference
Bay Area foreclosures jump in January
By Eve Mitchell
Contra Costa Times
Posted: 02/10/2011 12:00:00 AM PST
Updated: 02/10/2011 10:24:34 AM PST
The number of Bay Area homeowners who entered the first stage of foreclosure in January spiked by almost 40 percent from a year ago as banks once again gear up the foreclosure machine after hitting the pause button.
January’s jump is not related to the robo-signing scandal that broke in September, which led California lenders to temporarily slow down the number of foreclosed homes being taken back by banks, said Daren Blomquist, director of marketing and communications for RealtyTrac.com.
“It may be that lenders are feeling, at least in California, that they can go ahead and push some of these delinquent properties into the foreclosure process that they have delayed” for reasons such as trying to work out a loan modification with the borrower or being overwhelmed with too many properties, he said.
…
“Cheating seems to be a relevant term only when one is caught in the act. Otherwise it is viewed as intelligence, no?”
— HK-47, Knights Of The Old Republic
Otherwise it is viewed as intelligence, no ??
You Betcha….
Jetzt bin ich ein Deutscher investor.
Feb. 15, 2011, 12:01 a.m. EST
Das exchange
Commentary: Big developments for NYSE and GSEs
By David Weidner, MarketWatch
NEW YORK (MarketWatch) — Es war eine Woche die die Wall Street so schnell nicht vergessen.
…
From potential exchange mergers to the Treasury Department’s long-awaited report on Fannie Mae (FNMA 0.48, +0.03, +7.16%) and Freddie Mac (FMCC 0.52, +0.04, +8.56%), don’t be surprised if the past seven days are remembered as a pivotal point in the history of Wall Street, a watershed moment when the last ebbs of the financial crisis receded behind a new wave of speculation and exuberance.
…
The end of homeownership for all
Two days later, the Treasury Department unveiled a white paper that aimed to tackle a lingering problem from that crisis: Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, the government-sponsored entities that have absorbed $151 billion in taxpayer dollars, easily the lion’s share of losses from the $560 billion paid out in bailouts. (Banks have returned $235 billion.)
The Treasury has proposed winding down Fannie and Freddie and returning the business of home loans to banks and private investors, a process that could take several years.
Losing Fannie’s and Freddie’s appetite for mortgages will also change the loan market in two ways. First, it will make big banks even more essential to the financial system — in other words: bigger when it comes to too-big-to-fail. Second, mortgages will become more expensive and harder to come by for many borrowers. Read full story on proposed wind-down of GSEs.
The second part is a game-changer. Losing government support of the mortgage markets reverses a half-century of Washington policy that began with post-World War II efforts to make homeownership accessible.
Again, it’s the public paying for the sins of big finance.
Nothing new there, but the loss of an American financial icon and the promise of homeownership for almost everyone? That’s history, folks.
…
Originally there was the Paris Bourse. “The Paris Bourse (or “Bourse de Paris” in French) is the historical Paris stock exchange, known as Euronext Paris from 2000 onwards.” (Wiki).
Which came first, the Bourse or the Boerse?
Buy now before Fannie and Freddie are privatized!
Worried about the economy? Don’t be! Home Depot will hire 60,000 people and make the country better! Wait, what’s that you say? These are SEASONAL jobs that will evaporate come July? Say it ain’t so!
NEW YORK (CNNMoney) — Home Depot said Tuesday that it will hire more than 60,000 seasonal workers in anticipation of a springtime rush for home improvement supplies.
“Spring is our Christmas and (customer) traffic is at its highest during this season,” said Craig Menear, executive vice president for merchandising at Home Depot.
A high paying career as seasonal worker….hmmm… the American dream.
You just move with the jobs. Retail around Christmas, Home Improvement around Spring, Unemployment in the summer, and strawberry picking in the fall!
Perfect!
60,000 seasonal, minimum wage jobs (wanna bet they’re also part time with no benefits?). I guess it’s better than nothing, but not much.
A friend that just purchased a home said all her quotes to redo some areas are coming in high. Area homeowners who might have moved but have decided to stay put are instead upgrading so none of the contractors seem to be sharpening their pencils to get her work.
Hmmm, well, on the bright side, maybe those homeowners have finally gotten the message. Buyers aren’t interested in purchasing a pile of deferred maintenance.
I have noticed that remodelers and other contractors out here keep giving bubble era quotes for work, even though they are sitting on their hands doing nothing.
We had our house painted two years ago. I got a bunch of $6000-7000 quotes from guys who pulled up in their F-350 turbo diesels (who came out the same day I called them).
So I asked around and found a guy who did it for less than $3000. He drove an old pickup. Unlike the F-350 boyz, he was booked for over two month. No problem, it was worth the wait. And he did the work himself, no illegals.
Similar experience last year with some roofing repairs. The F-350 boyz wanted $2000+. I found an old timer who did it for $650. He was also pretty busy, unlike the F-350 crowd.
There are two ways to be rich (or, in the cases you describe, at least prosperous). One is having a lot. The other is not needing a lot.
So I asked around and found a guy who did it for less than $3000. He drove an old pickup. Unlike the F-350 boyz, he was booked for over two month. No problem, it was worth the wait. And he did the work himself, no illegals.
I had a terrific pair of house painters a couple of years ago. A man-woman team who got the job done for, oh, about a grand and a half. And they both drove older vehicles.
BTW, I’m having them back in March for another one of my fix-this, spruce-up-that sessions.
Reminds me of my FIL - he was one of those “old timers”. He made a good living as a handyman, doing most of the work himself, but drafting a son or nephew to help when assistance was needed. Before the HB he said it was as simple as showing up when you said you were going to, doing the job right and finishing on time. During the HB it was even easier because he did a lot of the small jobs that the other handmen-come-”contractors” wouldn’t touch (a lot of botched DIY jobs too). He stopped advertising several years before retirement (which was somewhat forced upon him by diagnosis of terminal cancer), but due to years of referrals, he still had more work than he could handle.
I had the same experience getting a tree removed. They all wanted 5,000. One guy bid $750 and I gave the job to him. He did a very good job but complained that he did not make any money on the job. To his surprise, I gave him another $250. He really did a good job and worked with my neighbor very well. My neighbor can be difficult so I was just very happy.
The roofing guy was very apologetic when he found a few more things that needed fixing that he had missed on his original inspection. I told him not to worry, that I wanted it “fixed right” before winter and snow came, and to adjust the bill accordingly. His original bid was $500, and it went up to $650.
Some of the F-350 boys wanted to charge $100 just to make an estimate. I told them I’d get back to them.
What would it be a 4 month job at the most ?
Per Bloomberg News, the Option Arm bomb won’t go off this year, because part of it already has, and part of it is being defused by low interest rates. Perhaps Bernanke plans to keep rates low until all the ARMs from the bubble reset.
“What…analysts didn’t anticipate was that so many option ARMs would go bad before resetting, and that interest rates would stay low enough to minimize the impact of the adjustments on borrowers like Jones who are making their payments. Still, a model developed by JPMorgan Chase & Co. analysts predicts that 70 percent of remaining option-ARM loans that were bundled into bonds will eventually default.”
“About $600 billion of the loans were made from 2005 through 2007, according to industry newsletter Inside Mortgage Finance. Of those packaged into bonds, some 20 percent have been liquidated at losses to investors, and almost half of the remaining ones are at least 30 days delinquent, in foreclosure or have been seized by lenders, according to data from JPMorgan. “It’s not that option ARMs weren’t a bad way to finance homes, it’s just that the disaster already happened before the resets.”
The low loan rates right now are keeping them from exploding, but as rates creep up, the option arms will start falling like dominoes. They can’t refinance underwater mortgages to low rates, they can just take advantage of the low rate on their current adjustable mortgage.
LA school board contemplates up to 5,000 layoffs
LOS ANGELES (AP) — The Los Angeles school board is set to vote on authorizing layoff warning notices for more than 5,000 employees, including 4,000 teachers, in a bid to close a $408 million budget deficit for the 2011-2012 academic year.
The board will vote Tuesday on the warning notices, which by state law must be sent by March 15. The notices do not mean that all employees who receive them will lose their jobs on June 30.
The exact number of layoffs will depend on whether voters approve state budget balancing measures on the ballot in June.
Teachers union president AJ Duffy says the district must examine other areas of waste and excess before slashing teachers.
I don’t think they are going to be able to cover the salaries of 4000 teachers by cutting back on pencils and making the math curriculum coordinator go back to an actual classroom instead of spending all her time going to conferences and reviewing possible new text books while being taken to lunch by the text book sales rep.
And the pencil budget already went out the window long ago. Some kids have to bring their own toilet paper now. Just a couple of weeks ago I was called upon to help refresh the classroom’s stock of tissue boxes and disinfecting wipes.
408 million is a lot of money. Oh well … welcome to the new normal.
…making the math curriculum coordinator go back to an actual classroom instead of spending all her time going to conferences and reviewing possible new text books while being taken to lunch by the text book sales rep.
This is something that made my mother’s blood boil.
All those specialists and coordinators. What the heck did they do? (My mother used different language, and it wasn’t the kind that she could use while teaching her classes.)
My 6th grader brought home a paper informing me how to vote on extending the tax in CA, who to write to and reminding me it was not a tax increase just a extension of current taxes.
And the dire consequences of voting no.
That should be illegal - using school time for grass roots lobbying.
“….the current fiscal year, which is on track for a record federal deficit and will see the government’s overall debt surpass the size of the total U.S. economy.” ~New York Times
“Real trouble comes unannounced,” asserts Bill Bonner. “If you knew that the dollar would collapse on the 3rd of June, for example, you could switch your money into euros. If the Irish Prime Minister called you on the phone and tipped you off – ‘Hey, we’re going to default next Thursday,’ – you’d know what to do. You’d short the euro and make a bundle. Or, if you intercepted a secret cable – ‘Nuclear Attack on Washington, DC, 4PM, October 13th…’ you’d get out of town as soon as possible.
“But black swans do not honk before they appear. They just appear.
“We’ve spent a lot of time anticipating disaster. There will be a collapse of the international monetary system, for example. It is almost inevitable…but it is still unpredictable. We can’t say when or how it will come about.
“Likewise, much higher inflation rates are coming…and a huge sell-off in government bond markets. Those things will provoke widespread financial disasters – possibly leading to riots, revolutions and other bad stuff.”
The dollar has been collapsing for decades.
Anyone surprised by this really shouldn’t be allowed outside without supervision.
World Bank: Food Prices at “Dangerous Levels”- AP
World Bank President Robert Zoellick says global food prices have hit “dangerous levels” that could contribute to political instability, push millions of people into poverty and raise the cost of groceries.
Can’t we just order more toner? Somebody head over to Staples. Don’t forget to bring the Rewards Card with you.
Can’t we just push the “Easy” button?
SoCal housing market kicks off 2011 with a slump
February 15, 2011 | 10:07 am
Southern California’s housing market kicked off 2011 with a slump. Sales were at their worst level for a January in three years and prices also dipped.
The price declines, which were steepest in the Inland Empire, were driven by a shift toward cheaper homes and foreclosures. The number of cash buyers and investors also increased.
Sales fell 5.9% in January from the same month a year earlier to 14,458, according to research firm MDA DataQuick of San Diego. Month-over-month sales declined 26%, but such a drop from December to January is typical.
The median home price for all home types in the six-county region was $270,000, a 0.6% decline from January 2010 and the first year-over-year drop since October 2009. Last month’s median was also a 6.9% drop from December and the lowest level since July 2009.
Analysts typically do not view January and February as good reads on how the year will progress. But if the weakness continues through the traditionally busy spring shopping season, then that could be cause for concern.
…
Fed dictator Bernanke needs to be toppled
Commentary: Forget Mubarak, it’s Fed reign of terror that must end
Paul B. Farrell, MarketWatch
ARROYO GRANDE, Calif. (MarketWatch) — Fed boss Ben Bernanke is the most dangerous human on earth, far more dangerous than Hosni Mubarak, Egypt’s 30-year dictator, ever was. Bernanke rules a monetary dictatorship that will trigger the coming third meltdown of the 21st century.
Just as Mubarak was blind to the economic needs of the masses and democratic reforms, Bernanke is blind to the easy-money legacy that’s set the stage for revolution, turning the rich into super rich while the middle class stagnates and peanuts trickle down to the poor.
Warning, Egypt also had a huge wealth gap before its revolution. Bernanke is the final egomaniac in America’s bubbling 30-year wealth gap, where the top 1% went from owning 9% of America’s wealth to owning 23% during this dictatorship.
Bernanke’s ruling ideology is the culmination of a 30-year economic war that has forged together Reaganomics for the super rich, former Fed chairman Alan Greenspan’s toxic allegiance to Wall Street, the extreme Ayn Rand’s capitalist dogma, culminating in the toxic bailouts of Treasury Secretaries Hank Paulson and Tim Geithner, two Wall Street Trojan Horses corrupting government from within.
Since 1981 this monetary dictatorship has caused enormous collateral damage, systematically sabotaging democracy, capitalism and the American dream while fueling the rise of our most dangerous new enemy, China. See “Secret China war plan: trillions in U.S. debt.”
When Obama reappointed Bernanke a couple years ago, “Black Swan’s” Nicholas Taleb was “stunned.” Bernanke “doesn’t even know that he doesn’t understand how things work,” that Bernanke’s economic methods are so inadequate they make “homeopath and alternative healers look empirical and scientific.”
We called Bernanke, the “Captain of the Titanic,” warning that he was setting up the third meltdown of the 21st century, predicted by “Irrational Exuberance’s” Robert Shiller, a coming crash worse than the 2000 dot-com crash and the subprime credit meltdown of 2008 combined. See “Capt. Bernanke sinks the U.S.S. Titanic.”
What a Gonga!
LOL….Is that one of those “Outdoor Living” porches… ??
Wow. Good find.
I like door #4:
4. Cheboygan, MI Home for Sale — $34,500 | Price per sq ft: $14
Original list price: $49,500 (Nov. 2010)
220 Duncan Ave., Cheboygan, MI 49721
Animal House!
Chinese consumers squeezed by rising prices
NEW YORK (CNNMoney) — Inflation in China has been on a tear lately, and Chinese consumers are feeling the pinch of rising food, energy and housing prices.
“Fuel prices are rising, toll prices are higher, food prices are rising; but even if it’s expensive, we still have to eat!” wrote Little Fu 01 on Sina Weibo, China’s version of Twitter.
Another user called Silent Insects writes: “I am so frustrated…prices rising prices rising prices rising.”
China’s consumer price index rose 4.9% in January, up slightly from 4.6% growth in December, according to data released by the Chinese government Tuesday morning.
China’s rate far outpaces inflation in developed nations. Consumer prices rose a mere 0.5% in the United States in December.
Chinese food prices alone rose a staggering 10.3%, up from a 9.6% pace in December.
A Sina Weibo user called Fat Lady Bei posted, “One renminbi can buy a very small tomato or one cucumber. When I eat at the cafeteria, it’s more expensive, and the portion sizes are smaller. Are we going to have to be like Japan in the future and ration our portions?”
“Are we going to have to be like Japan in the future and ration our portions?”
Yes.
Buckle up! You are the world’s economic powerhouse.
Obama Honors Buffett, George H.W. Bush With Medal of Freedom
(Bloomberg)
President Barack Obama said billionaire Warren Buffett and 14 other people awarded the Presidential Medal of Freedom today “reveal the best of who we are and who we aspire to be.”
Buffett is “not only one of the world’s richest men,” he is “one of the most-respected,” Obama said during a ceremony in the White House East Room.
Former President George H.W. Bush, German Chancellor Angela Merkel, poet Maya Angelou, and Democratic Representative John Lewis of Georgia, a leader of the civil rights movement, are among today’s recipients. Sports legends Stan Musial, of baseball’s St. Louis Cardinals, and Bill Russell, of basketball’s Boston Celtics, also were honored.
I like Maya Angelou but it seems every president wants to honor her with some kind of medal every year. Isn’t it Oprah’s turn now?
How about Ruby Dee?
Here are my nominees for next years Presidential Medal of Freedom.
http://www.palmbeachpost.com/blotter - 40k -
I nominate this guy. USMC veteran. Double amputee. Marathon runner. And a friend of the Slim family.
Bush 41 is a bona fide military hero - a navy fighter pilot that got shot down in action against the Japanese during WWII and barely escaped with his life. He was picked up by a US submarine.
However he already has his own ship. That’s honor enough.
http://www.public.navy.mil/airfor/cvn77/Pages/USS%20GEORGE%20H.W.%20BUSH%20(CVN%2077).aspx
It’s fairly rare to have a ship named after a living person.
Here’s another, although it’s a boat, not a ship.
http://www.navysite.de/ssn/ssn23.htm
Jimmay Cartier almost destroyed America!, just like lil’ Opie (the Non-Hawaiian) Muslin-Islamic Democraptic anti-American is trying to do!
World Bank says food inflation pushed 44 million into poverty.
That’s 44 million who will be buying fewer manufactured goods. It doesn’t sound like a good time to be a country that makes it’s living manufacturing with the rising input costs and declining market. I’m not so sure I’d be long China.
It seems China should have built a few more industrial size greenhouses and a few less ghost cities.
Are you questioning China’s omniscient central planners in which the investing world has uber confidence.
Are you questioning China’s omniscient central planners in which the investing world has uber confidence.
Hwy wrote a long story on a short piece of paper… (Traveling Wilbury’s)
“TrueBambooLie™”
Bloomberg has an article where Bernanke will defend his actions to his “deathbed”. Sounds a bit over the top. Perhaps Mr. Bernanke has realized that his schoolbook theories have lead to disaster. Now he is working on his defense because he probably figured out just how screwed he really is.
I also saw today that if there were a bout of inflation, that it would not lead to price increases for homes because the interest rates would rise. Bernanke’s plan was to lower interest rates to allow more people to buy homes to increase the value of homes. But it is working out the oppposite with interest rates rising and home prices still falling. Plus the other side effects such as hunger, riots and unemployment.
Bernanke’s plan was to lower interest rates to allow more people to buy homes to increase the value of homes. But it is working out the oppposite.
Always hard to say where it would be w/o the QE.
Some of the increase after it was announced was due to bond traders front running the FED. Buy the rumor sell the news.
“But it is working out the oppposite.
Always hard to say where it would be w/o the QE.”
The direction of the difference is not hard to predict: Without QE suppressing interest rates, home prices would be lower than they are.
That is the rub. Did QEII lower interest rates or did it raise them by increasing inflation expectations?
According to the textbook, it would lower interest rates. But who says the text book is right. If it were right, would we be in this mess?
I would also mention the line from the movie “The Producers” were Zero Mostel says, “I picked the wrong play, I picked the wrong director, I picked the wrong actors. What did I do right?”
In this case, Bernanke is following the textbook and is doing everything “right” but it is coming out wrong.
“Did QEII lower interest rates or did it raise them by increasing inflation expectations?”
The first order effect was to lower them, though your point is taken: All bets are off going forward.
‘In this case, Bernanke is following the textbook and is doing everything “right” but it is coming out wrong.’
He should have read more Hayek and less Keynes.
Stocks fall after surprisingly weak retail sales
Stocks drop after government reports smallest increase in retail sales since June.
NEW YORK (AP) — Stocks fell in afternoon trading after the government reported surprisingly weak retail sales figures.
The Commerce Department said retail sales rose for the seventh straight month in January, but the increase was the smallest since June. Retail sales rose just 0.3 percent, half of what economists had predicted.
Kim Caughey Forrest, equity research analyst at Fort Pitt Capital Group, said higher prices for gasoline and raw materials are beginning to be passed along to consumers. That’s hurting retail sales and spending, she said.
“Without wage gains,” she said, “people are going to buy less.”
Kim Caughey Forrest, equity research analyst at Fort Pitt Capital Group, said higher prices for gasoline and raw materials are beginning to be passed along to consumers. That’s hurting retail sales and spending, she said.
“Without wage gains,” she said, “people are going to buy less.”
Every time I see the name Fort Pitt combined anything, I just have to smile.
Why? Personal history.
Back when I was about to be born, my folks were living outside of Pittsburgh, PA. One fine Saturday evening, they decided to go out to the movies. “Gunfight at the O.K. Corral” was the big hit, so Mom and Dad just had to see it.
Any-hoo, a quiet evening out just was not to be. Little Slim decided to start making trouble of the natal kind.
Mom brushed it off as no big deal. She’s pretty tough that way. OTOH, Dad was concerned that, being south of Pittsburgh, I just might be born in the Fort Pitt Tunnel. In rush hour during the week. (ISTR being told that such things have actually happened.)
So, Dad insisted that he take Mom to the hospital. She agreed. And I was born the next morning.
My mother finished raking the yard before telling anyone she had gone into labor with my brother. Alas, no such story for me. When I was born, we were renters.
Whatever happened to the Greenspan Fed’s flat yield curve objective?
Feb. 15, 2011, 12:01 a.m. EST
Fear not rising rates
By Irwin Kellner, MarketWatch
PORT WASHINGTON, N. Y. (MarketWatch) — Don’t let the rise in long-term interest rates scare you — yet.
Yields on long Treasurys have jumped sharply over the past four months. The 10-year Treasury note closed Monday with a yield (UST10Y 3.61, -0.02, -0.41%) of 3.63%, up from its 52-week low of 2.33% plumbed in early October — and nearly twice what this benchmark security returned back in January 2009.
This rise has unnerved some pundits. They think that this much of a rise in interest rates could put the kibosh on the nascent recovery — not to mention, knock the stock market for a loop.
On the surface, you can’t blame them for having such angst. After all, housing, still in sick bay, depends almost entirely on low-cost affordable money. Another sector that relies a lot on debt is small companies.
But there is more to it than this.
For one thing, even with this run up, long rates remain historically low. And while the level of rates is important for housing, there’s been such a sharp decline in home prices since the bubble burst that the typical home is more affordable today than it’s been in over 30 years.
As far as borrowing by business is concerned, the banks are flush with funds today and are eager to lend. This is because the Federal Reserve’s low-interest rate policy means that they have been able to acquire these funds at little or no cost, resulting in a juicy profit margin on every loan they make.
In market parlance, this is a very positively sloped yield curve — and the banks just love it.
…
Kellner’s Forecasts
See economic calendar
date report forecast previous
Feb. 15 Retail sales 0.4% 0.6%
Feb.15 Retail sales ex-autos 0.6% 0.5%
Feb. 15 Empire state index 14.0 11.9
Feb. 15 Inventories 0.0% 0.2%
Feb. 15 Home builders’ index 17 16
Feb. 16 Producer price index 0.9% 1.1%
Feb. 16 Core PPI 0.3% 0.2%
Feb. 16 Housing starts 500,000 529,000
Feb. 16 Industrial production 0.5% 0.8%
Feb. 17 Consumer price index 0.5% 0.5%
Feb. 17 Core CPI 0.3% 0.1%
Feb. 17 Jobless claims 380,000 383,000
Feb. 17 Leading indicators 0.8% 1.0%
Feb. 17 Philly Fed 20.0 19.3
/conga/story/misc/kellners-forecast.html 127791
This rise has unnerved some pundits. They think that this much of a rise in interest rates could put the kibosh on the nascent recovery — not to mention, knock the stock market for a loop.
(Hwy can only wonder what “they” think on my 14% motto…)
Sir Greenisspent: “Hwy, your such a BLOCKHEAD!”
Just got this unsolicited e-mail:
“Looks like you are searching for the right home in the Rancho Bernardo area, correct? Let me know more precisely what you are looking for in a home, areas (if other than RB) and price point. My partner Alan Shafran and I have a number of properties that are not yet on the market, including bank owned foreclosures, traditional sales and short sales. These homes are not yet advertised for sale on-line or the MLS. If you are interested, let me know and we can discuss what’s coming up.”
So my question is, if these homes are not for sale (i.e., on the MLS), then why is this salesman trying to sell them to me? My sneaking suspicion is the banks are using stealth price discrimination to market homes directly to qualified buyers, rather than listing them publicly and fostering the price competition which comes with a public listing.
Is this legal?
So my question is, if these homes are not for sale (i.e., on the MLS), then why is this salesman trying to sell them to me? My sneaking suspicion is the banks are using stealth price discrimination to market homes directly to qualified buyers, rather than listing them publicly and fostering the price competition which comes with a public listing.
Is this legal?
Methinks that Professor Bear just found the smoking gun at the shadow inventory corral.
“My sneaking suspicion is the banks are using stealth price discrimination to market homes directly to qualified buyers, rather than listing them publicly and fostering the price competition which comes with a public listing.”
Actually the realtor is probably just lying about the deals he has that are “not yet on the MLS” in order to land you as a client (Haven’t you been paying attention to Exeter?). Why would the sellers pay 6% commission if they’re not even going to get on the MLS? Perhaps the banks don’t pay so much attention, but any traditional seller would be furious, as would a short seller or pre-foreclosure who has any seriousness about getting out.
That said, a year ago any offer made to a short seller would get presented to their lender. Now, I am hearing and seeing short sellers decline offers. I don’t know how much of it saving time (i.e. they KNOW the bank won’t accept that lowball) or how much of it is short sellers playing the game to stay in the home payment-free as long as possible, without any real desire to sell.
“…without any real desire to sell.”
Since I (and my loverly wife) lack any real desire to buy, especially in a rigged market with tons of shadow inventory waiting in the wings to eventually be unloaded, I guess it’s a standoff, at least so far as the Cantankerous Professor Stucco Bear household is concerned…
Silly Bear, renting has no “Long-Term” status. Then again, neither do most jobs these days… :-/
My cousin, a finance professor, claims some of his richest friends are those who rented their entire adult lives. And he related that story to me a number of years ago (i.e., pre-housing bubble collapse). I am sure his friends are even wealthier now, at least relative to others in their cohort who watched their home equity evaporate as the bubble imploded.
Something similar happened to me last week on Zillow. When checking my own house, Zillow normally posts houses for sale in the neighborhood. One such advert showed a house on my street but refused to give the address number. Of course, the photo and number of square feet made me immediately recognize the house 3 doors down.
This advert claimed to be from a realtor hawking a “house already in default for which a NOD had not yet been filed” and said if I contacted him he would fill in the details for me. He claimed he could help a buyer “make a deal with the distressed owner”.
That house 3 doors down is owned by an idiot who bought 5 houses in 2005/2006 for speculative purposes. He’s a VP of some local firm so he has the income to make the payments when they aren’t rented, but looks like he’s finally to the jingle mail stage.
Interesting, we receive these slick photo brochures (customized with our name) from Alan Shafran every month boasting about how many houses he sells each month. Insider trading?
Wow, the original ABX index of Sub-Prime loans from 2005-2006 have all spiked higher in the last few days. Many of them more than doubling from their lows. This could indicate a turning point for the MBS market. I have also heard that the forecast collapse of Commercial Real-estate loans in 2011 now looks like they will dodge the bullet too thanks to the FED pumping trillions into the banking system. We may laugh or curse at Bernanke but no one should doubt the power of the head priest of the Temple.
Could also indicate manipulation of the MBS market…
Why would you consider any movement over a few days a trend?
Rising interest rates suggest MBS are turning the corner?
It’s just the first time I noticed almost every class move straight up. From the worst B- to the AAA they all shot up in value. When bonds go up in value that means the effective interest rate is dropping.
Do markets send signals before they crash?
Researchers at the NECSI also played a role in changing the market regulations during the 2008 crash. The institute advised the US Securities and Exchange commission to reinstate the uptick rule, which prohibits short selling during periods of price decreases; otherwise, short selling can further drive prices down. The uptick rule was reinstated on the morning of March 10, 2009, the day that the market began to rise. See article “Mimicry among stocks can predict stock market crashes”
Blue
Mystery solved!
Google a news search for FASB and you will notice several new rulings covering mark-to-market have been issued. I noticed they extended the 2008 law allowing banks and I assume anyone else holding MBS paper (Our FED, China) to hold sh*t on the balance sheet at 100%. This is the same thing they did in Japan back in the 90s.
Ah-so: Extend-and-pretend has again been extended.
No wonder Chicago’s home prices are dropping, as its population has shrunk from its mid-Twentieth Century peak back down to 1920s levels. Maybe others have figured out what I did over the course of two years I lived there: IT’S TOO COLD FOR HUMAN HABITATION!
* U.S. NEWS
* FEBRUARY 16, 2011
Chicago Population Sinks to 1920 Level
By KEVIN HELLIKER
CHICAGO—A larger-than-expected exodus over the past 10 years reduced the population of Chicago to a level not seen in nearly a century.
The U.S. Census Bureau reported Tuesday that during the decade ended in 2010, Chicago’s population fell 6.9% to 2,695,598 people, fewer than the 2.7 million reported back in 1920.
After peaking at 3.62 million people in 1950, Chicago underwent a half century of decline that ended only when the 1990s boom years produced a small gain in the 2000 count. At that time, the city loudly celebrated its comeback.
But the recent recession accelerated a migration both to the metropolitan area’s farthest suburbs and to the Southern U.S. Chicago nonetheless is expected to remain the nation’s third-largest city, behind New York and Los Angeles and just ahead of Houston, for which final census numbers aren’t in yet.
The exodus took a big chunk out of the city’s black population in particular, shrinking it to 887,608 from 1,065,009, according to William Frey, a demographer at the Brookings Institution think tank in Washington.
“The black decline is really powering the city loss,” Mr. Frey said, calling it “part of the great reverse migration to the South.”
…
“…2,695,598 people, fewer than the 2.7 million reported back in 1920.”
Oops… that would be pre-1920 levels, wouldn’t it?
Southern California home sales at lowest level for a January in three years
The median price in the region, $270,000, represents the first year-over-year price drop since fall 2009, driven by a shift toward sales of cheaper properties and foreclosures.
By Alejandro Lazo, Los Angeles Times
February 16, 2011
Southern California’s housing market extended its slump as sales hit the lowest level for a January in three years and the median home price dropped year over year for the first time since fall 2009.
The price declines, which were steepest in the Inland Empire, were driven by a shift toward sales of cheaper properties and foreclosures as investors and all-cash buyers trolled the market. Real estate agents said many potential “retail shoppers” — those buyers who would like a home to live in — simply didn’t qualify for a loan.
“Credit is too tight,” said Michael Novak-Smith, a real estate agent in Moreno Valley who specializes in foreclosures. “You have a lot of people who want to buy houses, but they can’t.”
Economists warned that the months of January and February rarely set the pace for the rest of the year. Nevertheless, January’s performance was an indication that the Southland’s real estate market will remain hobbled as long as the labor market is weak.
“It is very hard to tell a trend from January, but I think we are experiencing a market that has not yet found its forward momentum,” said Edward Leamer, director of the UCLA Anderson Forecast. “You can’t have a healthy housing market without a healthy job market.”
…
“Credit is too tight,” said Michael Novak-Smith, a real estate agent in Moreno Valley who specializes in foreclosures. “You have a lot of people who want to buy houses, but they can’t.”
Home prices are still too high relative to incomes.
What Michael wants are high sales prices fully guaranteed by the taxpayers; a central government system.
Biz Break: Foreclosures sink California home prices; plus: Apple iPhone, iPad update
By Frank Michael Russell
Posted: 02/15/2011 01:17:27 PM PST
Updated: 02/15/2011 02:50:42 PM PST
Today: Sales of “distressed properties” hit housing prices last month in the Golden State, according to two reports today. Plus: Apple launches a subscription service for newspapers, magazines, video, music and other content. And: Google, Facebook.
A surge in transactions involving “distressed properties” boosted the real estate market in the Golden State in January — with an increase in sales for the third month in a row, at least adjusting for seasonal trends, the California Association of Realtors reported today.
At the same time, median prices statewide and in many regions throughout California were down in January, both month over month and from the year before. Statewide, the median single-family home price was $278,900, down 8.6 percent from December and down 2 percent from January 2010.
“Although prices typically fall seasonally in January and February of each year, the decline in the median price can primarily be attributed to the after effects of last fall’s foreclosure moratoria,” Leslie Appleton-Young, the group’s chief economist and vice president, said in a news release.
“More distressed properties are coming on to the market, which led to an uptick in sales of distressed properties during January,” Appleton-Young said. “We expect this trend to continue as lenders expedite the disposition of these properties.”
…
Sacramento home prices drop, again
Sacramento Business Journal - by Ron Trujillo, Editor
Date: Tuesday, February 15, 2011, 11:28am PST
Sacramento-area home prices fell last month compared to January 2010, but sales increased more than the statewide average, according to a California Association of Realtors report released Tuesday.
Placer County’s median-home price dropped 8.8 percent to $261,930 from a year ago, while Sacramento County inched down 1.8 percent to $171,690.
The decline is the latest evidence that the housing market in the region — and the state — continues to struggle.
California’s median-home price — meaning half the homes sold for more, the other half for less — dropped 2.2 percent to $278,900, the lowest price since June 2009.
…
How much longer until California residential real estate is the worst investment?
Southern California Home Prices Drop to 18-Month Low
By Dan Levy - Feb 15, 2011 10:47 AM PT
Southern California home prices last month fell to the lowest level since 2009 and sales dropped 5.9 percent as high unemployment and tight credit curtailed demand, according to MDA DataQuick.
The median price paid in January for houses and condominiums in Los Angeles, Riverside, Ventura, San Diego, San Bernardino and Orange counties was $270,000, down from $271,500 a year earlier and the lowest level since July 2009, when it was $268,000. The median fell 6.9 percent from December, the San Diego-based data company said today in a statement.
“Lots of potential buyers continue to hold back, waiting for a sign prices have bottomed, that their jobs are safe, or that loans are easier to get,” John Walsh, MDA DataQuick’s president, said in the statement. “Sales were lousy, but many investors and others looking for bargains stayed active.”
…
Why do real estate investors think it is the time to buy when prices are starting to rapidly decline once again? You would think losing their shirts between 2006 and the recent past would have learned them their lessons.
San Diego Home Sales Drop In January
By Erik Anderson
February 15, 2011
The number of San Diego homes changing hands last month was down more than 29 percent from December. San Diego-based Dataquick tracks real estate trends in California. Dataquick’s Andrew LePage said 2,248 homes changed hands last month. He said that is down a little more than 3 percent from a year ago.
The kinds of sales that happened don’t reflect a healthy housing market, said LePage.
“The percentage of homes that were foreclosed properties rose month to month,” LePage said. “The number that were sold to absentee buyers, which is mainly investors (and) some second-home buyers (and) the number of homes sold for cash was up.”
…
Is there any way for renters to qualify for a share of this federal largess? And how about all the Californians who already lost their homes; don’t these folks generally need help more than those who are sufficiently wealthy to remain comfortably housed?
California plans $2-billion program to help distressed homeowners
The Keep Your Home California program could help more than 100,000 struggling homeowners, including about 25,000 borrowers with underwater mortgages.
February 10, 2011|By Alejandro Lazo, Los Angeles Times
More than 100,000 struggling homeowners could get help from a $2-billion program that California is launching, including about 25,000 borrowers who owe more than their properties are worth and could see their mortgages shrink.
The Keep Your Home California program, which uses federal funds reserved for the 2008 rescue of the financial system, has the potential to make a sizable dent in California’s foreclosure crisis and help the general housing market. State officials hope to fend off foreclosure for about 95,000 borrowers and provide moving assistance to about 6,500 people who do lose their homes.
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The meat and potatoes:
“Even as the state struggles to get big lenders to sign on, the program has prompted complaints that it’s a giveaway to the banks. Critics have said that property values have fallen so steeply that much troubled mortgage debt is not worth what the banks would be paid. Foreclosures on the homes are so costly that the banks will come out ahead financially by writing down loan balances to keep borrowers in the homes, they contend.”